COA - Coats Group plc (formerly GPG - Guinness Peat Group Plc)

[gulf]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

MLs increase is a good sign.

I agree.ML would have had agood look at the Coats position I assume,also they would understand the currency situation.GPG looking good.

[Gryffyn]

As always, it is not a share that steadily increases like some. I'm still positive that as the 2006 unfolds and the dollar come off the highs, that GPG will appreciate - possibly in a rush with an announcement or two.

[shasta]

They are still far too overweight in cash & perhaps a move on AWM isnt too far away?

The money from Rubicon has largely been used to buy into TUA & Bluestone Tin, and they have hardly touched the funds they are sitting on!

When they do make an announcement on a new purchase id expect the SP to starts its annual rise up to the bonus issue

[Gryffyn]

Yes.

[gulf]

shasta,they may pay out a large dividend - just dreaming !

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by gulf

shasta,they may pay out a large dividend - just dreaming !


Isn't the current dividend enough for you? :)

Besides, it's expensive to borrow money right now, so it's better to have it on hand for the right opportunity than have to go cap-in-hand to somebody for it ...

[Gryffyn]

Mmmmm - a share buy back would be great - tax friendly use of cash.

[shasta]

Warthog, Not bothered by a dividend at all, the bonus provides enough upside.

They must have something in there sights thats all

[Gryffyn]

Santa appears to be arriving early :-)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Warthog, Not bothered by a dividend at all, the bonus provides enough upside.

They must have something in there sights thats all


Reported connection between GPG and NZX (the stock).

FWIW.

[Gryffyn]

Nice that a couple of brokers have picked GPG for '06 but then again they were the kiss of death last year!

[shasta]

Don't they pick GPG every year though?

A no brainer that Coates is seen as the catalyst for growth

[Base Trader]

The industry is cycling nicely in commercial threads. They should have an excellent year in the haberdashery trade which producers the best margins too.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Don't they pick GPG every year though?

A no brainer that Coates is seen as the catalyst for growth


Tends to often be the case - brokers just re-hash what the market is saying and translate to broker-speak.

"tail wind behind X"
"get a boost from Y"
"should start to see synergies"

(etc.)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

The industry is cycling nicely in commercial threads. They should have an excellent year in the haberdashery trade which producers the best margins too.


Thanks for this BT!

We are very fortunate indeed to have our very own haberdashery expert on-site!

[Base Trader]

One of our investments was a cotton trading company and I formerly worked on the purchase of the largest synthetic textile in the world - so I have some background as to how the industry trades.

US Haberdashery is going great guns at present and offers strong margins. Probably the war effect.

[Gryffyn]

Turning this into an interesting thread aren't we ;)

[TerryA]

Gryf,

Makes a great yarn !

[Gryffyn]

Stop, you'll have me in stitches [8D]

[TerryA]

Gryf,

Better that than being needled.

TerryA

[Gryffyn]

Can we string this out anymore?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Can we string this out anymore?


Give us a break you silly prîcks :D

[TerryA]

Gryf,

Others may think we have a warped sense of humour and would cry woof, or weft depending on how old they are, but I doubt if they would understand the fabric of these posts.

One would need a lot of moral fibre, or that of the hemp variety, to continue.

Better bwing it to a cloth, I'm stranded for more ideas, a sense of frustration is looming, and I'm out for a count of 10 in this post.


Best wishes,

TerryA.

PS keep bobbin along, you may be able to put another spin on the topic.

[Cooper]

You guys need some more material.

[Cooper]

quote:Originally posted by Cooper

You guys need some more material.


Darn it, so do I.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Cooper


quote:Originally posted by Cooper

You guys need some more material.


Darn it, so do I.


The fabric of this conversation has been lost ... you guys should just stick to your knitting!

[Cooper]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


The fabric of this conversation has been lost ... you guys should just stick to your knitting!


You're just knit-picking.

[TerryA]

Glad to see the someone else has picked up the thread.

Back to square one Gryf !.

TerryA

[Gryffyn]

Perhaps it's unravelling now?

PS - I thik TerryA wove most of the best ones into his last post.

[Cooper]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Perhaps it's unravelling now?

PS - I thik TerryA wove most of the best ones into his last post.


I agree. We've been bested... he's been worsted.

[Year of the Tiger]

Hmmm, it took me a few minutes to cotton on to the thread. Geez, thought I was gettin' to the end of my rope there for a while...

[Cooper]

quote:Originally posted by Year of the Tiger

Hmmm, it took me a few minutes to cotton on to the thread. Geez, thought I was gettin' to the end of my rope there for a while...




Some readers may be getting upset about the off-topic banter. To them I say: Keep your coates on, for peat's sake

[TerryA]

To stop this thread unravelling I will selvedge what I can of our reputations and say that I have come to the end of the line.

TerryA

[shasta]

Given it's largely the same people who do post in this thread, can't see why not.

Coates is by far there largest asset & GPG keeping stringing there shareholders along with no news!

[COLIN]

I must admit, you guys are darned clever. If only you were so good at picking the right shares!
And lets all make it our New Year's resolution not to pull the wool over the eyes of our fellow posters. As a great writer said (no, not me):
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practice to deceive."
Happy investing, all you cotton-picking yokels.

[Cooper]

Good Puns Guys.

[shasta]

Nice wee rise to $2.13 onwards & upwards from here.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN

I must admit, you guys are darned clever. If only you were so good at picking the right shares!
And lets all make it our New Year's resolution not to pull the wool over the eyes of our fellow posters. As a great writer said (no, not me):
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practice to deceive."
Happy investing, all you cotton-picking yokels.


NOT so fast big boy - are you referring to something or someone in particular?

It's getting kinda trendy here to accuse anyone and everyone of something dubious.

[shasta]

Warthog, Colin did say picking the right shares, & we all have a piece of GPG action here.

Even with little info it will keep ticking on up as the FX rates drop & we get closer to the 1 for 10 bonus (expect the SP to be $2.20 - 2.30 around that time).

If Coates results shows that it will substantially add to GPG's NAV & EPS we should see a re-rating & the end of sub $2 top ups.

Now to be accused of blatant ramping!

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Warthog, Colin did say picking the right shares, & we all have a piece of GPG action here.

Even with little info it will keep ticking on up as the FX rates drop & we get closer to the 1 for 10 bonus (expect the SP to be $2.20 - 2.30 around that time).

If Coates results shows that it will substantially add to GPG's NAV & EPS we should see a re-rating & the end of sub $2 top ups.

Now to be accused of blatant ramping!

You would not own it if you did not think it had legs.
As with HQP if you change your opinion I am sure you will let us know you have sold up.

To be honest this is one share I always think that I should have in a portfolio somewhere, but I never have made the commitment of buying.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Warthog, Colin did say picking the right shares, & we all have a piece of GPG action here.

Maybe even Colin, a possible closet-ramper, or ramper-in-denial! ;)

[shasta]

PT, i did disclose on the HQP thread that i sold out at $0.90, & each post discloses what i currently own, hence GPG showing & no HQP!

[shasta]

Up another 2c to $2.15, & liking this alot!

Not big volume mind you.

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by COLIN

I must admit, you guys are darned clever. If only you were so good at picking the right shares!
And lets all make it our New Year's resolution not to pull the wool over the eyes of our fellow posters. As a great writer said (no, not me):
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practice to deceive."
Happy investing, all you cotton-picking yokels.


NOT so fast big boy - are you referring to something or someone in particular?

It's getting kinda trendy here to accuse anyone and everyone of something dubious.

Have just come back to the site to learn that I could be a closet-ramper. Interesting thought. How do I explain myself to the CRP's (Closet Ramping Police)? However, for the record, my entire original post was meant to be in fun, in keeping with the spirit of the preceding witty comments.
Lighten up, please!
Also, for the record, and as I posted some time ago, I have been a continuous GPG holder for around 10 years - its been one of my best overall performers and I see no immediate prospect of ditching them from my portfolio - or adding to them, for that matter as, with the "bonus" issues (effectively share splitting), the holding has built up to quite a high percentage of my overall portfolio.
Now, please ask Aunty Helen to call off her CRP's.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN

Have just come back to the site to learn that I could be a closet-ramper.

Crikey - and there I was thinking you could be a closet ramping-policeman :D

[Ted2]

AUW merger must be good news for GPG. (AUW to merge with Select - up 30c today!) GPG up 2c today although given big the hike in AUW, and GPG having 34%, I thought GPG increase may be higher.

Anyway - it's all good!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Ted2

AUW merger must be good news for GPG. (AUW to merge with Select - up 30c today!) GPG up 2c today although given big the hike in AUW, and GPG having 34%, I thought GPG increase may be higher.

Anyway - it's all good!


I don't think the news has filtered through much yet.

Nice grant of options to AUW management a few days ago ... ;)

[COLIN]

quote:Originally posted by Ted2

AUW merger must be good news for GPG. (AUW to merge with Select - up 30c today!) GPG up 2c today although given big the hike in AUW, and GPG having 34%, I thought GPG increase may be higher.

Anyway - it's all good!


AUW have come a long way in a very short time. I think we paid 80 cents for the original allocation from TWR?

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN


quote:Originally posted by Ted2

AUW merger must be good news for GPG. (AUW to merge with Select - up 30c today!) GPG up 2c today although given big the hike in AUW, and GPG having 34%, I thought GPG increase may be higher.

Anyway - it's all good!


AUW have come a long way in a very short time. I think we paid 80 cents for the original allocation from TWR?



Yep, 80c per share plus the free allocation.

Share price has morethan doubled in less than a year.

Paddie:D:D

[Phaedrus]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/GPG119001.gif

[Base Trader]

GPG has some cyclicals well placed at the moment. AUW has worked out well but the key shareholding remains Coates which is participating in a sound industry cyclically.

I also like the increased ABB shareholding. Grains have not seen the same increases that sugar and coffee has of late, however, with increasing Asian demand in grains for food and beer ABB is well placed. China is struggling with its own grain yields, there is increasing US demand for its own production from ethanol so ABB is well placed to service the Asian market. There was the resources strength of ZFX, Austral etc on the basis of supply to China - well ABB is well placed for an Ag supply position. But... there is always the weather.

[biker]

I hope CAA gets some attention now. they are well out of the money for GPG at the moment.Looking forward to a turnaround sometime soon.

[Base Trader]

Capral has been operationally inept. However, this style of turnaround is what GPG does well.

The recent rally in Ali may provide an initial headache if they have not hedged adequately (which given past experience they will have not) but should allow for some repricing of products once the additional costs flow through to the consumer from themselves and conpetition.

Cyclically Australian building looks to have hit its bottom after 2+ years of flat performance - all the while the resources industry has been going great guns and wages have been increasing. Modest inflation numbers should provide for this interest rate cycle being at its high too.

[shasta]

Good finish to the week at $2.20 & its been a while since we have touched these levels.

A falling dollar will only help the uptrend & keep the 12 month high SP increasing.

Interesting times ahead!

[Gryffyn]

Hoping so :-)

[shasta]

Good article in the herald today about GPG sitting on a $220 million profit for the Tower/AWM play.

Time for GPG to sell out of both IMO, if they wanted to take it over it, they would have done so when the AWM share price was under $A1.

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Good article in the herald today about GPG sitting on a $220 million profit for the Tower/AWM play.

Time for GPG to sell out of both IMO, if they wanted to take it over it, they would have done so when the AWM share price was under $A1.



Why sell out if they believe there is more to come from both companies.
It will be interesting to see which way they go.

Paddie[:p][:p]

Hold AUW

[Gryffyn]

GPG reaps $220m in profit

21.01.06
By Richard Inder

Sir Ron Brierley's Guinness Peat Group is sitting on a profit of as much as $220 million from its investment in insurer Tower and its former subsidiary, Australian Wealth Management.

Shares in AWM yesterday surged from A$1.82 ($2) to as high as A$2.07 in the wake of its agreement to merge with rival Select Managed Funds.

The rise represents a gain of more than A$1 on the price AWM shares were issued to Tower investors when it was separated from the insurer and listed on the ASX last February.

Forsyth Barr analyst Guy Hallwright said GPG's investments in Tower and AWM and its support of share issues at both companies over several years amounted to about $155 million. These stakes are now worth $375 million - a gain of 140 per cent - after the Select deal, which was disclosed to investors late on Thursday.

"They have done very well, extremely well," Hallwright said.

Shares in GPG, which holds 34.71 per cent of AWM and 3.10 per cent of Select and 18.1 per cent of Tower, rose 2c to $2.20.

Tony Gibbs, GPG's New Zealand executive director, said: "One has to try hard for one's shareholders."

Tower's shares were down 1c at $2.15. The merger between AWM and Select is designed to create a competitor to rivals such as the major banks and insurers. The market value of the new firm - which will keep the Australian Wealth Management badge - is likely to push the A$1 billion mark.

AWM chairman Robert Thomas said the merger would offer further revenue growth opportunities from an expanded financial planning distribution network and product and service offering. "One of the merits and aims of putting these companies together is to give it the financial base to participate in further consolidation in the financial services industry and that involves acquisitions," he said.

"We've made a couple of small acquisitions in Australian Wealth Management last year - we're looking at others coming through ... it's just not the nature of this industry to stand still."

AWM acquired ABN Amro's two corporate trust businesses last June, four months after it listed on the Australian Stock Exchange.

Select, a superannuation, administration and funds management specialist, also made small acquisitions, including the Merrill Lynch Super and Pension Fund in November.

Select managing director Chris Kelaher, who will replace AWM managing director and chief executive officer Andrew Barnes in the new group, said there were several areas where the firms could achieve greater scale.

"We don't offer self-managed funds so that's something they do in that business that we'll be giving a lot of consideration to [offering clients]," he said.

"It's a very competitive market but we have a different style with a higher service component so we should do very well."


Profitable play
* GPG is sitting on a profit of as much as $220 million from two investments.
* The investments are Tower and Australian Wealth Management.

Author
• More by Richard Inder
• Email Richard Inder

[Gryffyn]

Of course many of us aren't surprised :-)

Disc: GPG

[shasta]

Not at all, however i have been thinking about GPG's next "play", & i see it as being a big one.

Earlier i posted that i thought GPG should exit TWR/AWM, & i guess they will when they feel the price is right & lock in the profits.

Interesting that GPG is already sitting on alot of cash, & with the Coates turnaround in progress, i wonder whether there future acquistions will be of a similar magnitude to Coates, ie large outright acquistions.

I have previously mentioned i thought PPP might be a GPG target, to join IFT with a "play" in the energy sector, as i can't see GPG entirely missing out, but my thoughts are now towards one of the small cash straped oil/gas/commodity explorers in Australia.

I have been reseaching a few of the smaller mining/resource companies on the ASX & could see the likes of SRZ,NEO,TOX etc in GPG's sight.

I have no interests in the companies mentioned above other than what i have disclosed as currently holding, & would appreciate any further constructive insight.

They have alot of cash & the slowing NZ economy may provide them with a few opportunities to strike, but with our pending energy crisis, i just can't see GPG sitting on the sidelines much longer.

[shasta]

I see on the ASX announcements today that GPG have reduced there holding in the Salmon Farm - TGR (ASX) from around 14m shares to just over 10m within the last two weeks. The total proceeds being only around $A5m, petty cash for GPG!.

More importantly they now hold under 10% & therefore no longer hold a blocking stake, GPG looking to exit?

This announcement has not hit the NZX, so i wonder if there are any other smaller investments being cashed up to realise profits.

It has been a rather active 2nd half of the financial year for GPG, after a sterling 1st half result.

I still believe this is all part of a bigger plan to make another large acquistion outright.

[Sideshow Bob]

Just been having a look at GPG on the LSE - closed at 81p yesterday. At the current exchange rate of 0.3853 (from xe.com), this equates to $2.10, compared with today's closing price of $2.17.

Does this differential vary, just with exchange rates, and markets being closed & open at different times, taxation etc?? Or is it a big fish in small pond, small fish in big pond thing??

Have also noted that Rio Tinto & BHP are also cheaper - significantly Rio - last week trading at 2855p, which equated to $67.02, when it was trading in Australia at $72.50. Today it is 2956p, which is exactly $70.00 AUD. Last price in Australia was $73.96.

Think I read somewhere that you can swap GPG shares on NZX with the registry, so can be traded in the UK??


Cheers
SSB

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

Just been having a look at GPG on the LSE - closed at 81p yesterday. At the current exchange rate of 0.3853 (from xe.com), this equates to $2.10, compared with today's closing price of $2.17.

Does this differential vary, just with exchange rates, and markets being closed & open at different times, taxation etc?? Or is it a big fish in small pond, small fish in big pond thing??

Have also noted that Rio Tinto & BHP are also cheaper - significantly Rio - last week trading at 2855p, which equated to $67.02, when it was trading in Australia at $72.50. Today it is 2956p, which is exactly $70.00 AUD. Last price in Australia was $73.96.

Think I read somewhere that you can swap GPG shares on NZX with the registry, so can be traded in the UK??


Cheers
SSB


Hi Bob

On arbitrage ...

While it is true that you can "shunt" your GPG holding between registers (in GPG's case, it is Computershare in both the UK in NZ), here are some challenges that you need to overcome.

1. The fx rate to which you refer is a "mid market" rate. Your rate is likely to be more in your bank's favour, unless you know somebody who can assist, in which case your milage may vary.

2. If you buy in the UK, you need to include brokerage in pounds and 0.5% stamp duty (payable on UK share purchases).

3. The NZ end of the "shunt" is pretty quick - all done in an email. However, Computershare in the UK is in the dark ages. They need a physical certificate before they can do the shunting, and it will take weeks possibly more for the certificate issue and the Computershare bit.

4. Liquidity in GPG is an issue in the UK whereas it is less of an issue in NZ. That said, it's all relative - if you are trying to sell 50k then that's fine but make that 1m and you have an issue.

5. Lastly, if there is a move on either exchange, it won't be priced into the other until the next trading day. Of course, it might not end up being reflected on the other exchange at all.

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks for the info Warthog - just something find interesting about GPG, as don't think there are any other stocks listed on both exchanges.

All a bit of a learning curve.....

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob

Thanks for the info Warthog - just something find interesting about GPG, as don't think there are any other stocks listed on both exchanges.

All a bit of a learning curve.....


;)

If you want to move capital between UK and NZ, GPG could be an excellent way to do it providing you were happy about the exposure during the transaction.

Just work out the brokerage and UK stamp-duty (only on purchases in the UK) and compare with real rates for the same amount. In the UK, there is a "food-chain" of forex dealers, many of whom will give you much better rates than high-street banks. Generally, the more zeros on the end of your transaction amount (that's zeros to the *left* of the decimal point), the better the rates.

Apologies if this sounds a bit presumptuous - I don't know how much info you know already.

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog



Really enjoying being able to spend my money rather than sitting on paper losses. Life is good.



If life is so good then why are you still hanging around this chatsite. Havn't you got anything else to do?

I think more and more readers will be coming to the same conclusion that I have come to - you are just a sorry ass loser and your attempts to drag others down with you is becoming rather boring - Get a life Cujodoggy.
,

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I'm soooo glad I sold all my GPG shares. Even though they have gone up 7c cents today, they will go back down again with a thud shortly - that's why I got out altogether.

Really enjoying being able to spend my money rather than sitting on paper losses. Life is good.


Congratulations cujodog - you seem to have an amazing predictive ability that for the most part eludes me.

You "got out" of GPG because they will head south again? What insight!

For our collective benefit, would you care to predict when GPG will go back down and to what level? While you're about it I'd like to know whether my next child will be a boy or a girl, although the only clue I can provide is that he or she is due April 1, 2006.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by warthog

[quote]Originally posted by cujodog

While you're about it I'd like to know whether my next child will be a boy or a girl, although the only clue I can provide is that he or she is due April 1, 2006.


Did you know that is April Fools day?


Well that's a question for you to speculate about ... but wait - there's more!: am I pulling your leg, or might I - in fact - be telling the truth? ;)

Disc: GPG

[shasta]

No point buying GPG now, wait til after the bonus 1 for 10 issue, when the price drops around 10%, as it's currently at it's 12 month high.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

You do not want me back in GPG if you want the share price to remain high.

I am the biggest jinx in the world and I can guarantee if I buy GPG they will go down again.

Would you like to buy some for me Warthog?


Good to know somebody has a sense of humor ...

I'd say - if pushed - that one could do worse than to accumulate GPG on retracements/dips.

BTW I don't believe the jinx stuff for a moment ;)

[coge]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by coge

P/T, if you purchase now, you should be looking at a profit prior to recapitalisation around the end of the first quarter next year. As I've stated previously, it normally starts to head north after Xmas/early new year.

That's providing the usual cycle continues, & I'm not aware of any reason it won't.

Let's see if someone backs up my opinion this time!


It's not whether somebody backs up your opinion or not - it's about what actually happens, n'est pas?

Let's see come January - if we can remember to come back to this discussion - what transpires. You could be lucky or right, or unlucky or wrong, but not both ;)


So what do you say Warthog, lucky or right? ;)[8]However I will be surprised if it breaches $2.34 prior to recapitalisation. [^]No one could accuse me of being greedy.

Cheers, coge

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by coge

So what do you say Warthog, lucky or right? ;)[8]


I'd say you were fortuotous :D

But there is plenty of time to go before the 1:10 issue ...

[coge]

In 2003 it was 17th of March, but generally early March for the full year result.

[Base Trader]

Cujodog. The relationship to Cotton with Coates is as a consumer and the stronger prices in Cotton and outlook is due to a number of factors including a strenthened consumer.

The Milling industry has been rife with defaults in the past and this have made the services to textile industry (such as thread) a tough market. The stronger performance of the mills has allowed prices and outlook to improve in cotton and has also seen the defaults reduce. This has a tangible bottom line effect in the case of suppliers to mills when you consider the slim margins the business operates on.

What has been of note has been the increased spreads of cotton qualities. Pima has been trading at historically wide margins (in relative terms) to normal grades. The top end is going well.

Also doing well (as mentioned before) is the home crafts market. This provides for good margins and demands a higher quality of thread (atleast in appearance).

So in all the higher margin thread component of the ibndustry is going well.

However, Coates is in transition so there is no guarantee that their results will reflect a generalised industry lift. Having said that my money is on them to perform.

I just saw the Rabo Bank circa NZ$800m Uridashi issue. Hence, the reason the NZD has remained robust. The issue ends 24 Feb and should see some NZD weakening following (save any other sig flows). I saw the marketing material and typical of these derivates they are marketed as S&P AAA with relative coupon rates but without the headline risk (vis-a-vis potential underlying instrumental price changes) numbers attached in the NZD/JPY exposures.

I wonder how many investors recognise the leverage to the NZD that these instruments have and that the 6% coupon rate is really only the smallest component of the expected future value of the instrument.

[Base Trader]

I should have said the NZD should weaken before 24 Feb as this effect becomes fully valued by the market.

[Taijon]

Relax Cujo, assuming you are still a holder, but I thought you were out of NZ shares altogether.

As I read this announcement both GPG and GPGNF will be reporting within 75 days of 31 December 2005. This means the results will be announced around 16 March 2006 at the latest - hardly a delay and they may well be announced before this anyway.

[Gryffyn]

The most important announcement is the daily one by the market, i.e. the share price - so far good news :-)

Disc: GPG and loving it.

[shasta]

Am out of GPG now to realise some profits, as there is plenty of time to get back in before the annual run to the bonus issue.

Shall be back onboard soon, albeit under a different trading structure.

[Gryffyn]

Do tell more...

[shasta]

Gryffyn, i am separating out my trading & long term holds into separate companies.

Just selling out prior to 31 March & starting the new tax year afresh.

The overhang of the annual bonus shares coming onto the market should depress the SP just enough to allow me a nice re-entry point.

I'm hoping around $2.00.

[gulf]

I was hoping not to see $2 again - sorry !

[Year of the Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by gulf

I was hoping not to see $2 again - sorry !


Me too!! All those in favour please raise your right hand... :D

Disc. Hold GPG

[Gryffyn]

Don't worry - the market seems to have responded well to Shasta seeling his blocking stake with a 5c rise and damn good volume ;)

Even after divvy and split I wouldn't expect to see $2 either.

[Paddie]

Market obviously expecting a good result.Will push traditional highs.

Wouldn't be suprised to see $2.00 ex 1 for 10 and divvy.

Paddie[:p]

Disc. hold GPG

[shasta]

Typical SP rise on my exiting huh Gryffyn!

And the takeover rumours are unfounded!

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

One for good slow steady consistent compounding

AA



AA,

I agree entirely, a good consistent performer.

Too many chase unrealistic gains, this share has proven in the past, year in year out to be a steady performer.

Paddie:)

Better than money in the bank!

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Typical SP rise on my exiting huh Gryffyn!

And the takeover rumours are unfounded!


Damn, that just leaves me trying to get a seat on the board with my meagre holdings ;)

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Gryffyn, i am separating out my trading & long term holds into separate companies.

Just selling out prior to 31 March & starting the new tax year afresh.

The overhang of the annual bonus shares coming onto the market should depress the SP just enough to allow me a nice re-entry point.

I'm hoping around $2.00.

To be honest the logic of any of those four statements escapes me.
The first one, well I don't know your circumstances, so should probably just shut up.
But two to four, if you believe this is a quality share then selling out completely and hoping is a silly thing to do in my books.

regards

paper Tiger

[shasta]

True PT, but i need to redirect funds elsewhere for now & i've previously traded GPG so need to clean the decks in the eyes of the IRD, & now was a good time to lock in some profits.

[Base Trader]

The volume at 3.3m shares is exceptional for GPG. The last big volume day was 30 August (4.2m shares - and shortly before the HYE announcement in the 5th-15th Sept range).

The tranche sizes would indicate Insto/Wholesale client buying. Considering the purchases looked to be actual buying orders and not price sensitive accumulations it would appear there is a positive POV held.

Weaker currency also to help.

[Gryffyn]

Yes, the whole GPG non-hedged position makes it a good currency play on top of the steady growth.

[Phaedrus]

A chart to illustrate the points made by Base Trader.

There has been steady buying support for GPG since last April. (Shown by the On Balance Volume uptrend) This support was evident even during the 5 - 6 months that GPG crabbed sideways. (The OBV rose over this period).

There have been several good opportunities to buy into this stock.
(1) Trendline break 8/9/05 ($2.04)
(2) Class A Bullish divergence 30/11/05 ($2.08) The OBV rose in spite of the price falling.
(3) Breakout above previous resistance 19/1/06 ($2.18)

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/GPG222001.gif

[Gryffyn]

Woohoo! Up some more today woth good vols agin. Nice that the TA seems to agree with the FAs

[Base Trader]

Phaedrus - Again a good chart review.

The difference for the FY results spike in volume as compared to the HY spike is that there are few willing sellers - hence the price increase. The buyers have pursued GPG despite increasing prices. Hence, it appears some sets of investors have rerated GPG, maybe as a slowdown safehaven (note Beta is 0.7) but with the results due in just over 2 weeks it does beg the question.

0.5m shares traded in first 2 hours and price up 3 cents.

[Gryffyn]

One starts to think that maybe some people have some early knowledge. Certainly a lot of chasing for a share that was 40c lower a few months back and no news since then.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

One starts to think that maybe some people have some early knowledge.


By definition, some must. Then there are people who are watching carefully. Of course there are those who are watching the watchers ...

See Phaedrus' OBV chart above ... ;)

[coge]

Well, we usually have a good run prior to recap, but this is the most bullish I've seen GPG since they sewed up the Coates takeover. Think they went up 4% in one day back then.

I guess the traders are taking some profits. Failing any new info, I can't see it as a buy right now. Obviously some are taking a different view.[8D]

[stephen]

Don't forget our dollar is starting to drop quite fast.

[Lizard]

I like GPG. They were the first stock I ever bought and might well be the last I ever sell...

But, I think their returns are better compared against other overseas IT's rather than NZ shares. My personal data shows GPG giving me a 26% return over the past 11 months. Perhaps surprisingly, this is lower than all 8 of the overseas funds I hold (taking into account exchange rate changes). Four of those funds can be purchased on the NZX, so brokerage and convenience are no difference. Their returns ranged from 26.4 - 73.5% over the same period, with an average of 46.2%.

The question is, whether GPG should be considered underperforming, or whether it may be about to play catch-up?

[gulf]

ABB Grain up on ASX 3.3% (24c) on good earnings forecast.

[Base Trader]

Also a fundamental business position change too. ABB is a great investment for GPG. The Asian demand on beer is improving, biodiesels adding to ancillory sales and the potential to pick up good business from the AWB fall out (I believe this is likely).

Good on you Ron for this little sorte - recent increase in ABB holding.

ABB 'in strong position' to market wheat
Email Print Normal font Large font February 24, 2006 - 4:09PM

Grain producer ABB Grain says it is in a strong position to successfully market wheat if there are changes to the current export system.

Changes may be made to Australia's single desk wheat export system following allegations current monopoly holder AWB Ltd paid $300 million in kickbacks to Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in breach of UN sanctions.

ABB has signalled it was ready to step into the breach.

Company managing director Michael Iwaniw said ABB's past success in wheat "reinforces our position as the nation's second biggest wheat marketer and signals to the wider community that ABB is not a one-dimensional organisation".

"Similarly, if - we stress if - the wheat export legislation changes in the future, then - because of ABB's infrastructure, existing strong relationship with international customers and supply chain capabilities - we believe we will be in a strong situation to market wheat successfully," Mr Iwaniw told the company's annual general meeting in Adelaide.

ABB chairman Perry Gunner said the Cole inquiry, headed by Terence Cole QC, was a timely reminder for the company.

Evidence presented in the Cole commission of inquiry into the AWB affair has put pressure on the government to strip the wheat distributor of its veto over bulk exports of wheat.

The commission is examining AWB's payment of kickbacks to Iraq through the United Nations oil-for-food program. UN sanctions imposed during the first Gulf War made any direct transactions with Saddam's regime illegal, with government accounts frozen and all payments handled through a UN account under the oil-for-food program.

The Cole inquiry has heard millions of dollars were paid, disguised as trucking fees, through Jordanian transport firm Alia. It has been claimed Saddam used kickback money to compensate the families of Palestinian suicide bombers.

"Let me make it clear that ABB has not sold grain to Iraq, at least for the last 25 years, if not longer," Mr Gunner told the annual general meeting.

"Nor have we been involved in the United Nations food program.

"We deal with over 40 countries using a variety of sales routes including the use of agents and brokers.

"Our commissions, while not disclosed for confidentiality reasons, must be reasonable and commensurate with the commercial practice in the countries in which we operate.

"What has become apparent from the Cole inquiry is that it is now more important than ever that grain traders ... know our customers and who our business partners are so that we are not inadvertently facilitating terrorism or the laundering of money and the proceeds of crime."

Mr Gunner said any restructure of the single desk for wheat, and also for barley, was purely speculation.

"There are some important differences between the two single desks," he said.

"Firstly, we have the responsibility for marketing of barley, not wheat.

"Wheat is a commodity traded in large volumes and it is the benefit of sophisticated hedging and forward market available to growers and traders alike.

"Barley is traded in much lower volumes and without the ability to hedge risk and, therefore, is more volatile.

"We believe that ABB's role and value as an international marketer ... is much more difficult to replace in the case of barley as opposed to AWB's role with wheat.

"Our ability to influence international supply and demand for malting barley is, we believe, significantly greater than AWB's ability to influence the wheat market."

Mr Gunner said ABB directors were "very conscious of the traps that others appear to be getting in to in another arena".

© 200

[Gryffyn]

Cheers BT

[minimoke]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Have run into a few people over the last couple of days and they have all commented on how disappointing this share is. The NZ dollar keeps going down and GPG goes down with it.

They were laughing about it. We all thought the weaker NZ dollar was going to boost GPG's share price.

What a flop.:(

1.97 in december to 2.32 now tells a different story.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Have run into a few people over the last couple of days and they have all commented on how disappointing this share is. The NZ dollar keeps going down and GPG goes down with it.

They were laughing about it. We all thought the weaker NZ dollar was going to boost GPG's share price.

What a flop.:(


If you're in GPG, it would apprear that your gut feeling and the SP are - in some way - telling you to get out.

Well? Did you hold GPG, and have you sold?

Disc: GPG

[shasta]

A few profit takers of late have been locking in profits, as i have done, nothing to worry about.

GPG's SP will move up closer to the FY result & bonus issue/divvie.

Just looks like its peaked a little early, but any indication that Coates is doing better than anticipated & the market shall reward those still holding.

Anything less & the drop off will provide a nice re-entry price ;)

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Have run into a few people over the last couple of days and they have all commented on how disappointing this share is. The NZ dollar keeps going down and GPG goes down with it.

They were laughing about it. We all thought the weaker NZ dollar was going to boost GPG's share price.

What a flop.:(



quote:Originally posted by cujodog

[ /quote]
1.97 in december to 2.32 now tells a different story.
[ /quote]

I'm talking about the $NZ. During that period the $NZ wasn't going down.

cujodog: you are very insecure and in denial. Should you ever acknowledge that fact, you will find that life gets better.

regards

Paper Tiger

[Gryffyn]

Who made the comment about the sharemarket being mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient?

[shasta]

Warren Buffett/Benjamin Graham?

Cujodog should probably read "The Intelligent Investor!"

[Gryffyn]

:-)

[Tyke]

I am not quite sure what you are going on about here; since 31st Dec the $NZ has fallen 4.4% against the GBP and the GPG share price has risen 10.5%



quote:Originally posted by cujodog


1.97 in december to 2.32 now tells a different story.
[/quote]

I'm talking about the $NZ. During that period the $NZ wasn't going down.
[/quote]

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

This share is starting to become the laughing stock of the market.:D


Those of us who are long term holders have been laughing for years ;)
,

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

This share is starting to become the laughing stock of the market.:D


If you flip-flop between emotional stockmarket "investor" and apprentice joker, then don't be surprised if people ignore you (me for a start).

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


quote:Originally posted by cujodog

This share is starting to become the laughing stock of the market.:D


Those of us who are long term holders have been laughing for years ;)
,




I am with Mick 100 on this company.

Very solid.

Paddie:):)

[gulf]

Will GPG report tonight,bit of volume on NZX and ASX today.

[grumpy]

GPG have previously announced that the results could be as late as
15-March because of the change to IFRS

[gulf]

thanks for that .

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Just heard through a contact overseas that GPG's profit result is going to be very disappointing and that the Coats result is way under expectations.

Interesting to see how the market will react upon release.


Could be a buying opportunity for you Cujohound ;)

[Gryffyn]

Would BaseT like to comment?

[winner69]

quote:[i]

Could be a buying opportunity for you Cujohound ;)


No way ....wouldn't fall enough for cujopup .... he only goes for things that will go up 100% in a month ..... (or ends up in receivership)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:[i]

Could be a buying opportunity for you Cujohound ;)


No way ....wouldn't fall enough for cujopup .... he only goes for things that will go up 100% in a month ..... (or ends up in receivership)


Or overnight ... ;)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Just heard through a contact overseas that GPG's profit result is going to be very disappointing and that the Coats result is way under expectations.

Interesting to see how the market will react upon release.


Well the market either has heard less of this news, or something different.

What did your contact say the disappointing results were caused by?

Come on - where's the fat on this assertion??

[gulf]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Just heard through a contact overseas that GPG's profit result is going to be very disappointing and that the Coats result is way under expectations.

Interesting to see how the market will react upon release.

[gulf]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Just heard through a contact overseas that GPG's profit result is going to be very disappointing and that the Coats result is way under expectations.

Interesting to see how the market will react upon release.


That means you are short GPG ?

[Gryffyn]

Big volume today but only down 1c

[coge]

I think the key to success here, is to listen to young cujo. Then do the opposite.[:p];)

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by coge

I think the key to success here, is to listen to young cujo. Then do the opposite.[:p];)


Yeah, that sounds like a winning strategy coge

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Big volume today but only down 1c


Make that up $0.01 at 206PM.

I'd say coge has it right - cujo is a curse: any company he/she invests in are destined for hard times, with the opposite being true.

Similar to the MacDunk effect!

[Gryffyn]

Surely your overseas mate would want to sell their holding cheap to you?

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Big volume today but only down 1c


Make that up $0.01 at 206PM.

I'd say coge has it right - cujo is a curse: any company he/she invests in are destined for hard times, with the opposite being true.

Similar to the MacDunk effect!

WARTHOG, my muddy smelly friend.
You jest at your friends expence. Poor old Macdunk did his best to show you the way told you how to get on top only to be trod down in the mire. JEEZE even my dog picks then better than you out a hat, but i will keep that one for later. YOUR PAL AS ALWAYS MACDUNK

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Big volume today but only down 1c


Make that up $0.01 at 206PM.

I'd say coge has it right - cujo is a curse: any company he/she invests in are destined for hard times, with the opposite being true.

Similar to the MacDunk effect!

WARTHOG, my muddy smelly friend.
You jest at your friends expence. Poor old Macdunk did his best to show you the way told you how to get on top only to be trod down in the mire. JEEZE even my dog picks then better than you out a hat, but i will keep that one for later. YOUR PAL AS ALWAYS MACDUNK


Go on MacDunk - admit it - your dog does better than you in the investor and trader competitions! ;)

PS. The only tea-lady at GPG is Gibbs - who, allegedly, eats all the biscuits at director's meetings before anybody else can get a look-in - and I doubt you get far with plying him with tea and ginger-nuts.

[duncan macgregor]

WARTHOG MY OLD MATE, The dog is almost twice as good as you. The tea lady did me well this time Ist in one second in the other look up metro he took on nessies selections whan the putty cat barred her.
I did tell you how to win but you know best. I had a friend that had a horse running in the MELBOURNE CUP. He told the jockey the horse wont win the bloody thing but i want it to lead the race at some point for as long as it can. He has a picture of his horse leading in the MELBOURNE CUP. Its like me warty i dont care as long as i have you all playing catchup at one point in the race.
macdunk

[Gryffyn]

Continuing up on good volume. Lash it some more please cujodog!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

WARTHOG MY OLD MATE, The dog is almost twice as good as you. The tea lady did me well this time Ist in one second in the other look up metro he took on nessies selections whan the putty cat barred her.
I did tell you how to win but you know best. I had a friend that had a horse running in the MELBOURNE CUP. He told the jockey the horse wont win the bloody thing but i want it to lead the race at some point for as long as it can. He has a picture of his horse leading in the MELBOURNE CUP. Its like me warty i dont care as long as i have you all playing catchup at one point in the race.
macdunk


MacDunk I do - I must admit - envy you, being able to come to conclusions without the minimum amount of information one would need to arrive at said conclusions.

My conclusion is that you must have a crystal ball, and a man - or tea lady - on the inside at my broker's office.

Or rather, not ;)

[shasta]

Up 5c to $2.42 in early trade, anyone else feeling sick for selling out too soon!

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Up 5c to $2.42 in early trade, anyone else feeling sick for selling out too soon!

It gives me no pleasure to say "I told you so", but....
[V]
regards

Paper Tiger

[Base Trader]

Does this share rally not concern anyone else. I have a positive view and a significant shareholding but the fact that the shares are rallying at this moment is disturbing. There is nothing that has changed the fundamental view that I have espoused again and agaim here - but that results are imminent.

The problem when GPG needs to complile multiple accounts is that multiple people get a look in and some think it is acceptable to trade on this.

Almost time to say sell the rumour - but I do not think GPG has run its course yet.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

Does this share rally not concern anyone else. I have a positive view and a significant shareholding but the fact that the shares are rallying at this moment is disturbing. There is nothing that has changed the fundamental view that I have espoused again and agaim here - but that results are imminent.

The problem when GPG needs to complile multiple accounts is that multiple people get a look in and some think it is acceptable to trade on this.

Almost time to say sell the rumour - but I do not think GPG has run its course yet.


Neither do I, as I believe that the result will be a positive one for Coates.

Further, the NZ$ has dropped sharply overnight here in NZ, which always helps things along.

[coge]

Well, the NZX is having a good day & the NZD has dropped as Warthog has said.

If insiders are selling, it shouldn't necessarily increase demand, which is what drives any stock up. Maybe they are getting in rather than out. What exactly are the rumours?
GPG is at an all time high right now, so a few nerves are to be expected. A bit like a batsman being in the "nervous nineties"

I've held since 1999, so I ain't bailing. But good on B/T for being the devils advocate!

Roll on $2.50.

[Lizard]

From the view in my e-mailbox this morning, I'd say it could be just brokers pushing clients to enter prior to the result. In my view, this doesn't mean much at all, as from memory, brokers predictions for GPG results are often wide of the mark.

[Gryffyn]

Usual question, if you sold what would you buy?

[Gryffyn]

Year in, year out GPG has delivered steady growth which is all I really want. Selling now would imply that I thought they weren't going to continue to do that. I can't see why they won't deliver for years to come...

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

From the view in my e-mailbox this morning, I'd say it could be just brokers pushing clients to enter prior to the result. In my view, this doesn't mean much at all, as from memory, brokers predictions for GPG results are often wide of the mark.


Just occasionally, even brokers get lucky ...

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by warthog



Just occasionally, even brokers get lucky ...
[/quote]
I never met one so far warthog I find most brokers in my encounter have no practical knowledge, [ like a school teacher that has never left school, and been in the real world]. macdunk

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by warthog



Just occasionally, even brokers get lucky ...


quote:
I never met one so far warthog I find most brokers in my encounter have no practical knowledge, [ like a school teacher that has never left school, and been in the real world]. macdunk


If you are saying simply you've never met a broker who got anything right, then that's possible.

If you are saying that no brokers get it right - even occasionally - then you would probably not be a GPG fan, as there were a few recommendations from brokers at the beginning of the year.

It would appear that since the start of the year, GPG is up 17%+, hence my comment that sometimes even brokers get lucky.

I know it's part of your psyche to dismiss pretty much everybody except tea-ladies and your dog, but even somebody as humble as your good self would concede - at least in part - that a bit of luck now and then finds its way to pretty much everybody ;)

[gulf]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Real danger exists with this share at the moment - don't get too carried away, plus remember that bad profit result is just around the corner

How bad do you think it will be ?

[Gryffyn]

You and your mate must be glad you're all sold out now hey CD ;)

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Real danger exists with this share at the moment - don't get too carried away, plus remember that bad profit result is just around the corner


This probably means another good rise in GPG's share price tomorrow.

Paddie[:p][:p]

[Base Trader]

Coge - I belive insiders would buy on positive news and not sell.

As for the broker comments above - well you maybe right. There will be an element of pushing the stock on the "not much else issue" and the devalue of the NZD also. But these have been issues on the horizon for a long time.

A good result for Mooring Systems Limited - with the first AP Moeller orders. As they build close to 20% of ports it has significant potential for MSL. A real punt of a share though - but great upside potential. It has been a long wait.

[gulf]

Hi BT
Even a bit of GPG movement in London.

[Base Trader]

Up 2p at midday when I last looked. Would indicate this is not just a currency play as GPG LN is actually weighed down by a weak NZD.

[777]

Keep it going cujudog. I have a pile of money to buy more. Can you talk it down another 4-5 cents.

[777]

You are a worry.

[gulf]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by 777

Keep it going cujudog. I have a pile of money to buy more. Can you talk it down another 4-5 cents.


It's already down another cent. This is why I got out of this share. Most shares when they go up manage to stay up. This one goes up and goes straight back down to what it was.

I'm glad I haven't got the frustration of holding this share anymore.



Even BHP & RIO go down please let us have a list of shares that never go down.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by 777

Keep it going cujudog. I have a pile of money to buy more. Can you talk it down another 4-5 cents.


It's already down another cent. This is why I got out of this share. Most shares when they go up manage to stay up. This one goes up and goes straight back down to what it was.

I'm glad I haven't got the frustration of holding this share anymore.


Ah, so that was you selling out you retirement fund at 16:09 for $2.42?

(parcel of 48 shares ;) )

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Gee I am feeling sorry for the ordinary GPG shareholder. They are withholding the profit result until the last possible day and then in my opinion will post the worst result in 20 years.

Just watch the Church of Brierley get rocked to its very foundations.


Cujo, surely you must realise you are in the wrong place ...

Try here instead - this way you might get people actually paying you to do what you do ...

http://www.thestand.co.uk/

;)

[Gryffyn]

Oooh - good link!

[Gryffyn]

Anyone get the feeling that cujodog may have sold GPG short and is desparately worried about the calls when it continues to go up after the reports?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Anyone get the feeling that cujodog may have sold GPG short and is desparately worried about the calls when it continues to go up after the reports?


I'm not saying that I am desparately worried but I have bordered up my apartment and will be trying to avoid any news for the next couple of days - there will be only so much abuse I can handle after the result comes out:(


I'll get Downer (what a name for a company? oh well - I suppose it accurately describes the feeling one gets after hearing what the service offering is) to disconnect your telephone line and have some industrial ear protection delivered as Gryffyn will be roaming the streets telling the world what the result is ... ;)

[whatsup]

Did I read somewhere that GPG had a toe hold in the LSE 1 or 2% holding that was bought some years ago when the shareprice was around 2 Quid ,I see that there is a NYSE offer for the LSE on the table at some 9 Quid ,should make a tidy profit for GPG,
As the cheese ad says "some things take time"!

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Anyone get the feeling that cujodog may have sold GPG short and is desparately worried about the calls when it continues to go up after the reports?


I'm not saying that I am desparately worried but I have bordered up my apartment and will be trying to avoid any news for the next couple of days - there will be only so much abuse I can handle after the result comes out:(


I'll get Downer (what a name for a company? oh well - I suppose it accurately describes the feeling one gets after hearing what the service offering is) to disconnect your telephone line and have some industrial ear protection delivered as Gryffyn will be roaming the streets telling the world what the result is ... ;)


[8D]

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by whatsup

Did I read somewhere that GPG had a toe hold in the LSE 1 or 2% holding that was bought some years ago when the shareprice was around 2 Quid ,I see that there is a NYSE offer for the LSE on the table at some 9 Quid ,should make a tidy profit for GPG,
As the cheese ad says "some things take time"!


Weren't they involved in an actual bid for the exchange at some stage. thought they may of sold out then. Hoping they have some left of course.

[warthog]

Close at $2.48 today on T/O of 1m+.

Cujodog, what else would you avoid in the current market. I'm thinking that there may be a tracker fund we could establish ...

[777]

Profit has been announced.

[Base Trader]

Kick a*# result!

[Ted2]

on ya Coojo*****!! What's your next great tip?

anyone with half a brain has owned GPG for years. Can't see any reasonm to stop now!

Ted

"Ya gotta know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em" !!!

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by warthog

Close at $2.48 today on T/O of 1m+.

Cujodog, what else would you avoid in the current market. I'm thinking that there may be a tracker fund we could establish ...

:D:D:D

[Gryffyn]

FLLYR: GPG: Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2005 08:34am
GPG
14/03/2006
FLLYR

REL: 0834 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

FLLYR: GPG: Preliminary Results for year ended 31 December 2005

14 March 2006

Guinness Peat Group plc
("GPG" or "the Company" or "the Group")

PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2005

CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

GPG experienced a good year in 2005 with an increase in net profit from GBP30
million to GBP97 million. That is the best result since the 1999 profit of
GBP112 million which was mostly the "one off" Tyndall sale and was "unlikely
to be repeated". Needless to say, in reality, it has always been our
objective to disprove that prediction and this remains so for the future.

Several of the factors which contributed to the 2005 result were the same as
those which operated adversely in the 2004 downturn. In particular, there
were a number of completed capital transactions, most notably the sale of De
Vere shares and the disposal of Staveley Industries' UK trading operations.
Staveley has been an excellent investment since GPG acquired full control in
2000 with a high return on funds employed and a final realisation of assets
well in excess of book value. GPG was never the most logical ultimate owner
of the Staveley trading businesses but had a valid role in developing them
for sale to specialised industry purchasers.

Coats contributed a profit of GBP25 million compared to an IFRS-adjusted
profit of GBP4 million in 2004 which was important to the GPG result but even
more so as evidence that Coats' 3 year plan is continuing to take effect.
Cash flow has continued to be very strong with a significant reduction in
debt included in GPG's group accounts.

Coats' financial profile at 31 December 2005 GBPm

Intangible assets 164
Other fixed assets 342
Net current assets 81

Total assets 587

Net debt (209)
Provisions (116)
Minorities (16)

Shareholders' Funds GBP246

Coats' Preliminary Results for 2005 are being released today in a separate
announcement and will be posted on the GPG website.

Currency fluctuations resulted in an overall gain of GBP35 million of which
GBP2 million was allocated to GPG profit, GBP10 million to Coats and GBP23
million transferred direct to reserves. A marked contrast with the loss of
GBP15 million in 2004 but if it is accepted that GPG's basket of currencies
must inevitably neutralise in the long run then one year's gain is
effectively another year's loss.

IFRS produced some weird anomalies within the accounts but did not have a
material impact in aggregate on earnings other than the artificial gain of
GBP8 million referred to in the Interim Report. Unfortunately the restated
2004 figures overall are largely unrecognisable from the original "audited"
accounts - a sad reflection on the decline in financial reporting standards,
whether labelled IFRS or whatever.

One figure which should be noted as relevant to analysing GPG's performance
is the unrealised surplus of market value over cost of the investment
portfolio which was GBP111 million at 31 December 2005.
GBPm
Unrealised surplus as at 31 December 2004 127
Realised during 2005 (55)
____
72
Net unrealised gains during 2005 39
____
Balance at 31 December 2005 GBP111

This figure can, of course, fluctuate considerably but is nevertheless
somewhat of a guide to the source of present and potential future
profitability. It does not include investments in subsidiary and associated
companies which are carried at book value and would otherwise increase the
surplus by GBP16 million.

One of the successes of 2005 was the "spin off" of Australian Wealth
Management (AWM) from Tower. In the first instance, there was a somewhat
negative reception from analysts and the market but GPG recognised the
potential value from the outset and now holds 34.7% of the capital

[Gryffyn]

Sounding quite bullish aren't they for a normally reticent bunch of chaps. :-)

[Base Trader]

Just the basics are a NPAT increase to GBP90m (GBP30m) with Coates a noticable contributor with NAPT of GBP25m (GBP4m). Full coates result out this avo (morning for me).

Unrecognised is all bar GBP2m of the GBP35m in gains in P&L (GPG does not recognise normal CCY gains). These have gone straight to reserves. Also GBP111m in IFRS gain in market values over book values.

I like the last comment also from Ron on "outlook". Typically understating the fact that they have a great run rate going and describing outlook as "very satisfactory".

No wonder he was smiling at Sotherby's last month... and I thought he had nabbed the SG1.

[Gryffyn]

GPG
14/03/2006FLLYR
GENERAL

REL: 0836 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

GENERAL: GPG: Results for Coats Group Ltd for year ended 31.12.05

Guinness Peat Group plc

The following unaudited consolidated results of Coats Group Limited ("the
Company") for the year ended 31 December 2005 are released by Guinness Peat
Group plc ("GPG") for information only.

Richard Russell
Company Secretary
Guinness Peat Group plc

14 March 2006

Contacts:
Blake Nixon (UK) 00 44 20 7484 3370
Gary Weiss (Australia) 00 61 2 8298 4305
Tony Gibbs (New Zealand) 00 64 9 379 8888

Coats Group Limited: unaudited results* for the year ended 31
December 2005

Financial summary
Memorandum
Like-for-like UK GAAP
2005 2004 2004 2004
Unaudited Unaudited Unaudited
Unaudited
US$m US$m US$m US$m
Revenue 1,636.7 **1,626.3 1,578.2
****1,587.5

Operating profit before reorganisation, impairment and other
exceptional items (see note 2) 126.5 **92.4 90.5 ****104.8

Operating profit 99.8 **42.7 41.1

Profit before taxation 78.3 12.0

Net profit/(loss) attributable to equity shareholders 52.4
(7.6)

Net cash inflow from operations before reorganisation costs and other
exceptional items (see note 5) 231.2 232.8

Net cash inflow generated by operations 176.9 196.5

Capital expenditure 81.3 91.1

Net debt (excluding preference shares) ***340.6
403.8

Net debt 363.3 403.8

Net gearing (including preference shares as equity)
***76% 112%

Net gearing 86% 112%

* The financial information for the year ended 31 December 2005 has
been prepared in accordance with the recognition and measurement requirements
of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) endorsed by the
European Union, and the accounting policies adopted have been consistently
applied to the restated financial information presented for the year ended 31
December 2004, except for those relating to the classification and
measurement of financial instruments (IAS 32 and IAS 39). The Group has made
use of the exemption available under IFRS 1 to only apply IAS 32 and IAS 39
from 1 January 2005. Note 1 in these financial statements sets out further
information on the basis of preparation of the financial information.

** Excluding the impact of exchange translation and the acquisition
and disposal of businesses

*** These figures are adjusted to include preference shares in
equity, instead of net debt. Net debt at 31 December 2005 includes $22.7
million of preference share capital as, in accordance with IAS 32 and 39
(which were adopted from 1 January 2005), the preference share capital of a
subsidiary undertaking is now classified as debt.

**** These figures are as reported for the Thread business in the
financial information for Coats Group Limited for the year ended 31 December
2004, which was published on 28 April 2005, prepared under UK GAAP as at 31
December 2004. The operating profit figure is before reorganisation,
impairment, exceptional items and goodwill amortisation.

Chairman's statement

Results
In 2005, Coats Group Limited made good progress in terms of profits and cash
generation, as well as improving its long term competitive position by
substantial investments in the relocation and upgrading of capacity.

Pre-exceptional operating profit (before reorganisation, impairment and other
exceptional items) improved by 37% on a like-for-like basis to $126.5 million
(see Operating Review). The increase was mainly due to cost reductions in
Europe, North America, and Corporate, as the benefits from previous
reorganisation projects began to feed through. Like-for-like sales growth was
relatively modest at 1%, with strong growth in handknittings offset by
declines in other crafts segments, and growth in industrial thread sales in
Asia offset by declines in North America and Western Europe.

Net earnings attributable to

[Gryffyn]

I think 2.50 might be on the cards :-)

Of course there has been a good run on good volume in this share so maybe all the insiders and friends have already bought and now will profit take but I think this all bodes well for the rest of the year.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

Just the basics are a NPAT increase to GBP90m (GBP30m) with Coates a noticable contributor with NAPT of GBP25m (GBP4m). Full coates result out this avo (morning for me).

Unrecognised is all bar GBP2m of the GBP35m in gains in P&L (GPG does not recognise normal CCY gains). These have gone straight to reserves. Also GBP111m in IFRS gain in market values over book values.

I like the last comment also from Ron on "outlook". Typically understating the fact that they have a great run rate going and describing outlook as "very satisfactory".

No wonder he was smiling at Sotherby's last month... and I thought he had nabbed the SG1.


SG1?

[Base Trader]

Coates result was excellent.

Distributable Income to Shareholders at USD52.4m (loss of USD7.6m). Pre-exceptional operating profits were up 37%.

Great outlook for cashflow from sales of non-core assets to reduce debt.

Remember that this business in essence is a slow growth business but has benefitted from a canny aquisition and an excellent turnaround plan.

[Base Trader]

Stanley Gibbons No.1. First NZ stamp printed - it was printed in London.

Went for GBP60k.

And I am not a stamp collector as such but do look at NZ memorabilia from time to time - but at GBP60k it is rich. I have School fees to pay in a couple of years.

[gulf]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Gee I am feeling sorry for the ordinary GPG shareholder. They are withholding the profit result until the last possible day and then in my opinion will post the worst result in 20 years.

Just watch the Church of Brierley get rocked to its very foundations.

Good call !!!

[biker]

I like Ron Brierley's comments on CAA-Capral aluminium...

Capral again recorded a poor result but GPG demonstrated its continued
confidence by underwriting another cash issue and now holds 52% of the
capital. The additional funding was required for an acquisition which ideally
complements Capral's existing operations and was a very sensible deal for
both purchaser and vendor (Crane Group).

There are distinct similarities between Capral and Coats insofar as both are
established manufacturers completely remodelling traditional operations and
the GPG formula for both companies is "not cutting corners".

"Not cutting corners" means that GPG provides the necessary financial and
other support to eliminate any pressure to compromise on long term planning
in favour of short term expediencies. This can mean heavy upfront costs but
which might be better regarded as investments in the future rather than
wholly realised losses. The timing may be uncertain and mistakes are made
along the way but the big picture is eventually a whole new phase of
incremental prosperity for GPG shareholders.....



Needless to say, I hold CAA.

[Snow Leopard]

Of course, GPG is over-priced ;)

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Base Trader]

Book value of NZD1.95bn (0.37 pence) vs Market cap of NZD2.14bn. However, Coates is at historic value (not public) as are a good number of other interests. Improving currency position relative to NZD.

For mine NZD2.48 is good buying.

[Gryffyn]

Was starting to think 2.50 this week was optimistic with profit takers active but I think many serious investors will like the outlook of the report and buy in.

Disc: GPG and holding

[Base Trader]

Value may change on re-rating as the brokers review. Plenty of buyers to sop up the short term selling at present.

I do not think you can under-rate the Coats result as they are clearing the clag of unwanted assets at good prices, settling the European Union fine on competition and having made some small aquisitions. What we are likely to see is a adequately geared robust cash flow earner with the key market position in thread. Then you have a valuable asset with excellent long term visibility.

[Gryffyn]

Key dates for locals the affect SP:

Head securities quoted ex-dividend (NZSX) 27.03.06
Payment of Cash Dividend** 30.05.06

Head shares marked Ex-Capitalisation in NZ 26.06.06
Allotment of Capitalisation Shares (5.00pm UK time) 30.06.06

[777]

The drop in the NZ $ in the last hour or two adds another 2 cents to the share. Have got into a few more off shore shares this morning before the rate has an affect on their prices.

[shasta]

Up to $2.54 now Gryffyn & still some buyers lurking!

[Gryffyn]

Happy days Shasta, happy days indeed.

[Gryffyn]

I might have if you hadn't posted all that rubbish about supposed inside info. Still good buying for the futire...

[Year of the Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Why has this share gone up more than 20% since I sold?? Does anyone feel sorry for me??? ):


Are there any other shares you are considering selling cujodog? [}:)]

[Gryffyn]

I fyou listen to everything that Dunc advises then you get what you deserve ;)

Herald/NZPA bulletin not vet effusive. They never seem to be about GPG.

[Gryffyn]

Solid volume for the result. A very good day.

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I'm thinking of buying back in - but I'm scared the price will go back down because I am jinxed and then everyone will blame me and me only.

Does anyone have any objections?!




Plonker.

Paddie[^]

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Gee I am feeling sorry for the ordinary GPG shareholder. They are withholding the profit result until the last possible day and then in my opinion will post the worst result in 20 years.

Just watch the Church of Brierley get rocked to its very foundations.



We have found the village idiot!

Paddie:):)

[Sideshow Bob]

quote:Originally posted by Paddie


quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Gee I am feeling sorry for the ordinary GPG shareholder. They are withholding the profit result until the last possible day and then in my opinion will post the worst result in 20 years.

Just watch the Church of Brierley get rocked to its very foundations.



We have found the village idiot!

Paddie:):)


We haven't just found him Paddie, it's just he reconfirms it with every post!

[Gryffyn]

Swwwt, I'm happy to sell at $3.00 and give someone a bargain :-)

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I see that Goldman Sachs JB Were has GPG valued at a NAV of $3.02 in their report today.

I am not at all convinced they are right.

PS: Those of you who thought you saw a previous post from me, it's just your imagination ;)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by cujodog

I see that Goldman Sachs JB Were has GPG valued at a NAV of $3.02 in their report today.

I am not at all convinced they are right.


Why do you say that?

Have you seen their valuation and assumptions?

Have you considered that the kiwi is likely to continue to depreciate against the currencies in which GPG assets are held, with improving results?

[shasta]

191 million pounds still held too & the NZ $ value of that increasing!

[wsheridan]

quote:Originally posted by biker

I like Ron Brierley's comments on CAA-Capral aluminium...

Capral again recorded a poor result but GPG demonstrated its continued
confidence by underwriting another cash issue and now holds 52% of the
capital. The additional funding was required for an acquisition which ideally
complements Capral's existing operations and was a very sensible deal for
both purchaser and vendor (Crane Group).

There are distinct similarities between Capral and Coats insofar as both are
established manufacturers completely remodelling traditional operations and
the GPG formula for both companies is "not cutting corners".

"Not cutting corners" means that GPG provides the necessary financial and
other support to eliminate any pressure to compromise on long term planning
in favour of short term expediencies. This can mean heavy upfront costs but
which might be better regarded as investments in the future rather than
wholly realised losses. The timing may be uncertain and mistakes are made
along the way but the big picture is eventually a whole new phase of
incremental prosperity for GPG shareholders.....



Needless to say, I hold CAA.



It's a classic Brierley play to increase a holding in a company.... we will find CAA looking in very good condition in about 18-24 months .... IMHO

[coge]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Swwwt, I'm happy to sell at $3.00 and give someone a bargain :-)


Wouldn't have anyone in mind for an offmarket transaction there Gryff?[:o)]

The thing is with valuations, is that investment companies generally trade below them IMHO.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by warthog

Why do you say that?

Have you seen their valuation and assumptions?

Have you considered that the kiwi is likely to continue to depreciate against the currencies in which GPG assets are held, with improving results?

No, have you?
Yes.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by warthog

Why do you say that?

Have you seen their valuation and assumptions?

Have you considered that the kiwi is likely to continue to depreciate against the currencies in which GPG assets are held, with improving results?

No, have you?

No.


quote:
Yes.


Then I ask again: why do you say that? ;)

[Snow Leopard]

Sorry warthog for missing out the answer to question one

The reason why I say "I am not at all convinced they are right" is because I am not at all convinced they are right. :D

Go read the full year announcement. ;)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Sorry warthog for missing out the answer to question one

The reason why I say "I am not at all convinced they are right" is because I am not at all convinced they are right. :D

Go read the full year announcement. ;)

Close, but no cigar (can only concude cigars are not your thing).

I was simply wondering what it was - in particular - that struck you about GSJBW's estimate that was (significantly) out.

No big deal.

I have read the FY docs - which bit are you referring to?

[gulf]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Sorry warthog for missing out the answer to question one

The reason why I say "I am not at all convinced they are right" is because I am not at all convinced they are right. :D

Go read the full year announcement. ;)

Close, but no cigar (can only concude cigars are not your thing).

I was simply wondering what it was - in particular - that struck you about GSJBW's estimate that was (significantly) out.

No big deal.

I have read the FY docs - which bit are you referring to?


I don't think any brokers previously included a Coats figure in valuations,but now they have some real info to work on GSJBW might be on the mark.Has anyone seen any other updated valuations

[Base Trader]

I have seen the ForBar effort. NAV NZD2.55 but has on accumulate. However, most of the brokers analysis and valuation of Coats shows very little appreciation of the business and its developing model.

The Independent (UK Paper) made a relatively interesting comment and notes comparision to Berkshire Hathaway/Buffet - except GPG has performed better with +18% pa growth.

It is not really a day trader stock - it is a buy and hold.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/analysis_and_features/article351402.ece

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader
It is not really a day trader stock - it is a buy and hold.


:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[shasta]

Naw BT, it's more a buy each year after it goes ex divvie/bonus & let the herd ride it up until it hits your exit point....

...repeat process year after year :D

Have taken my profits & awaiting a re-entry point.

[gulf]

Thanks for that,I wonder if it will hit the NZ press !

[Base Trader]

Agree as to entry point - but I have not sold any shares in the past 6 years and have only accumulated. Which is not my style but has been reasonably successful.

For CGT reasons I do not over trade this share.

[Base Trader]

Hi Gulf,

It may well do. I am sure the Press in NZ do their Google news searches and trawl the blogging sites.

It is better than doing proper reporting and getting on the phone with some real questions to Ron and the team. There is so much they could question him on from stamps, art, his view of global markets to faith in Capral.

[shasta]

Fair enough BT - the IRD considers me a trader and i sold out in part to lock in some profits, & in part to remove the trader status from me personally, as i will hold separate portfolio's for trading & long term holds in a different structure from 1 April!

GPG will be back in the long term portfolio in a wee while.

[wsheridan]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

I have seen the ForBar effort. NAV NZD2.55 but has on accumulate. However, most of the brokers analysis and valuation of Coats shows very little appreciation of the business and its developing model.

The Independent (UK Paper) made a relatively interesting comment and notes comparision to Berkshire Hathaway/Buffet - except GPG has performed better with +18% pa growth.

It is not really a day trader stock - it is a buy and hold.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/analysis_and_features/article351402.ece




Too many cynics here to have this sort of story reported.... meanwhile it just keeps making money for us.

[Tyke]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Naw BT, it's more a buy each year after it goes ex divvie/bonus & let the herd ride it up until it hits your exit point....

...repeat process year after year :D

Have taken my profits & awaiting a re-entry point.


Good thinking. What is your re-entry point?

[warthog]

1.5 million just went through at $2.45 - must have been cujo finally getting back in!

[Gryffyn]

Nah, just me selling my 1:10 from last year ;)

[shasta]

Tyke,

Damn good question, im hoping around $2.15-2.20, after GPG goes ex divvie & with the overhang of the extra shares, so on a 10% drop perhaps?

[777]

The rise up until the bonus issue is still to come. I'll stick my neck out and say we will see 2.65/2.70. Ex will be about 2.40. Not much below what they are tonight. This result is a lot better than the market has so far indicated. I am still buying and adding to a large holding. Over weighted but they have never let me down.

[warthog]

I beleive the market will play catchup with GPG.

Disc: GPG

[Mick100]

You had better grab some while they're cheap cujo :D

[Gryffyn]

Too late, it's bouncing back up now. Maybe some movement aroun 2.50 for a while. Silly traders...

[Gryffyn]

$ headin South: this share is only going to go one way (til the split).

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

$ headin South: this share is only going to go one way (til the split).


Bear in mind that GPG has *some* NZ assets, and it is by no means certain that the kiwi$ will continue to drop at the same rate.

This might hold the share price back a bit for those of us who wish to top-up on regressions ... ;)

disc: GPG

[Gryffyn]

True there is an asset split, but I believe that the Oz and O'seas portions will benefit enough for SP gain.

Disc: GPG

[Sideshow Bob]

More positive press:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/03/18/cxquest18.xml

[Base Trader]

GPG LN is trading 93.5 pence - 94.5 pence on good volume. Given the weakening NZD that is $2.62-$2.66 range.

There is definitely upward pressure on the share with excellent support.

[Crusader]

Touched 95 a short time ago.

92-95

Crusader

[Gryffyn]

'Monster' CA deficit - $ heading down, GPG heading up :-)

Disc: A happy long termer

[Base Trader]

The currency fundamenatally is heading South but we have known that for a long time. I expect we are seeing a breather at present in the downward slope as shorts cash out and the best are relaid.

The replacement of April Uridashi maturities is the next question mark. There is just no buying of NZD at present and if foreign bonds continue to cash out the currency will continue to weaken.

[Mick100]

Don't sit on your hands for too long cujo - grab some while they're cheap :D

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Can someone please tell me if the closing price today of $2.58 is an all-time high?

Thanks

I believe it is :D

[777]

Now trading ex dividend. 230,000 thru at 259/262. Another new high.

[777]

Hit 270 now. The dollar drop must help but there must also be some big buyers in the back ground, Cujodog included. Might have to revise my 270 cum bonus issue upwards. But how far?

[coge]

With the 31st pending, the instos will be window dressing. Should be an interesting week.

[jrbl]

up 5.5% after going ex div, somebody is very keen! $3 dollars surely will be seen by the end of april..[:p]

[Ted2]

quote:Originally posted by coge

With the 31st pending, the instos will be window dressing. Should be an interesting week.


Of course. I was trying to work out what was happening.
Sell everything before 31st and buy back in when prices go down early April to take advantage of the window dressing.
Happens every year.;)

[Gryffyn]

Today another good reason why not to sell/trade this share...

[grumpy]

I bet it is an all time high,
but is it still one if you adjust it for the diminished value of the NZD??

[Gryffyn]

You reallr are a masochist - yes I believe it is - and it hasn't closed yet :-)

[Gryffyn]

Sadly yes.

[Gryffyn]

Has anyone else noticed the the Herald is very quick to print news of GPG sp fall or bad news but very rarely includes it in the list of sp rises even on an outstanding day like today?

[Base Trader]

Clearly some of the Brokerage Houses did not pay their Researchers enough either.

[warthog]

Timing is everything.

GPG has been cheap for so long, and for NZ holders, is an obvious hedge against the kiwi dropping.

My guess is that the double benefit of GPG as investment and currency hedge has only emerged on investor's radar the last month or two.

[Base Trader]

Point Taken but I believe you are describing the effect.

However, I would imagine researchers are paid to predict these effects.

As noted on this thread currency effects have been significant driver of price as has Coats in the overall investment. Hence, if you have an opinion on these then you can have a GPG opinion.

Personally, I did not think either of these shifts were a surprise. I do not think Big Ron does any favours to his share price (outside operating a very good investment company of course) by jawboning up the price or investments.

Not being user friendly should not be a reason to ignore the Company. Researchers are more than story tellers (well should be anyway).

[777]

Link to London trading.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GPG:LN

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

Point Taken but I believe you are describing the effect.

Yes, correct. Personally, I did not pinpoint the timing.


quote:However, I would imagine researchers are paid to predict these effects.

I would imagine so, but it seems that frequently they don't manage to.

Personally, I did not think either of these shifts were a surprise.[/quote]

That makes two of us, but the timing of these shifts is the big factor. Apart from being in the game early enough, was it clear when exactly these movements would occur?

[Base Trader]

I believe so - the Coats turnaround was well in progress, the industry had been relatively free of shocks (credit and trade shocks are the key ones for mine) and the home crafts market was going great guns. This is not the first time I had said this on this forum. The question then was could GPG get value for spin offs of non-core assets and could they institute the turn around plan. In Ron you must have faith for this one.

On the issue of the currency the crunch was coming and although exact timing is tough in this one you would expect that if the succession of interest rate rises would bite then it would be in the Xmas trade. However, despite timing issues – the correction threatened to be large enough that a prudent investor could not ignore it.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

I believe so - the Coats turnaround was well in progress, the industry had been relatively free of shocks (credit and trade shocks are the key ones for mine) and the home crafts market was going great guns. This is not the first time I had said this on this forum. The question then was could GPG get value for spin offs of non-core assets and could they institute the turn around plan. In Ron you must have faith for this one.

Agreed. And trust in a team's ability is part of assessment.


quote:On the issue of the currency the crunch was coming

Agreed.


quote:and although exact timing is tough

My point,


quote:in this one you would expect that if the succession of interest rate rises would bite then it would be in the Xmas trade.

I thought shortly thereafter, but I was early.


quote:However, despite timing issues – the correction threatened to be large enough that a prudent investor could not ignore it.


Agreed. Still there are some analysts who did, but that's ok by me ;)

[Base Trader]

We seem to be agreeing on the fundamentals.

I suppose my point is that some Researchers did not really get inside the key issues with GPG because it is a tough company with diverse range of information and management who do not exactly make themselves available for discussion.

My broker was bullish on them yet his company only had them as an accumulate.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

We seem to be agreeing on the fundamentals.

Agreed ;)


quote:I suppose my point is that some Researchers did not really get inside the key issues with GPG because it is a tough company with diverse range of information and management who do not exactly make themselves available for discussion.

Yes - too much like hard work! Much easier to cover companies who are always in a conversation with the market. I see this as an advantage, as with a little effort, one can have a perspective on what GPG is up to.

Like Hart, GPG only talk to the market when they have something to say.


quote:My broker was bullish on them yet his company only had them as an accumulate.

Sometimes this is due to internal wrangling, or even political reasons.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Can someone please tell me if the closing price today of $2.68 is an all-time high?

Are you talking NZ$?

Nice wee volume today 2.5m+

[777]

Looking forward to cujodog's Fridays post.

"Can someone please tell me if the closing price today of $3.00 is an all-time high?

Thanks "

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by 777

Looking forward to cujodog's Fridays post.

"Can someone please tell me if the closing price today of $3.00 is an all-time high?

Thanks "




LOL:D

You have been rumbled cujodog, pity I was enjoying the sport.

regards

Paper Tiger :D