COA - Coats Group plc (formerly GPG - Guinness Peat Group Plc)

[Gryffyn]

Yes down a bit. However, one big trade made up most of it.

[Gryffyn]

Still, I wonder if someone has been talking to macdunk's tea ladies. Possible a little insider selling on an average cabbage report coming up.

In for the long haul of course but would like to have seen price stay above 210 for a while.

[Gryffyn]

been over it plenty of times :-)

[Gryffyn]

Now what you need is a quick reassuring comment from our man in Marlow - BaseT.

[Base Trader]

There was selling across the market. The PPI is leading the way in NZ and their is the potential for weakness and some of that sentiment has seen some selling of which i have been doing also.

However, not GPG. I will add to my GPG on weakness.

IFRS will affect hedging treatments. The affect will depend upon what hedging positions GPG has. However, the key effect is the non-amortisation of intangibles with a general test instead on the intangible entry. In the case of a Company that purchases a fair amount intangible value this is generally positive. However, with non-performaing assets this may accelerate a large write-off of intangible.

So on balance - I do not know but I still like the Coats investment and with investment companies I look through the financials to the investments themselves.

I prefer GPG to most other sectors at the moment. NZD oil has gone over NZD96/bbl, wage cost pressures - these will tell on NZ company earnings in NZ. On the otherside we see a lot of M&A activity and ever decreasing circles of companies for the cash for investment - holding up values.

I think there will be continued cash flows into the market and a holding up of values. However, there will be a large negative on cyclical corporate earnings for the next reporting season. Hence, my desire to invest but outside the NZ cyclicals cashflows.

[Base Trader]

I was under time pressure in writing the above. Basically, I am saying I like GPG because it has a large chunk of overseas exposure. Also there is a private equity boom and they hold some assets that fit what private equity are after. I hope they can get value from spinning out the non-core Coats assets and benefit from a general inmprovement in trading condition in the textile industry.

I am concerned about NZ cyclicals and those companies that do not have the capacity to pass on the purchasing price increases we have seen in the last 6-12 months. Noting that companies profits are mirginal - the absolute increases in PPI (hence COGS) will begin to have a significant effect.

World cotton prices are off at present - one of the few commodities.

Does anyone know how to insert graphs - I can depict what I mean easily enough.

[Gryffyn]

Cheers BT. You sum up my thoughts more eloquently than I could

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader
Does anyone know how to insert graphs - I can depict what I mean easily enough.


You need to store the image on either your own server/webpage (if you have one), or use a free hosting service, such as www.photobucket.com
Once the image is uploaded, you take the address of the image and insert it in "img" tags.
So, if you were to replace the curly brackets in the following statement with square brackets, you would see my chart of Briscoes
{IMG}http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/bgr26aug05_2.gif{/IMG}

Getting the account or somewhere to stick the images is the biggest problem, and once you have that sorted it should be fine.

[gulf]

Does Coats have any problems with the Chinese textile quotas being introduced by the EU?

GPG are trying to buy more of AUW

[gulf]

GPG looking weak NZ & Australia

[Gryffyn]

yeah, has eased a lot in price last few weeks - amost enough to make me think about selling some other stuff and topping up.

[shasta]

Closed under $2.00, drops below $1.90 & its top up time.

Gryffyn, when are the results due out?

Enigma, can you post the link re GPG & AUW

Thanks

[Contrarian]

Shasta
I'll save you the read, AWM did a small shareholder buy out offer, They scooped 3%. There is a shareholder vote going through to say GPG can buy them taking them from 34% to 37%.
GPG did an awesome job ..split TWR into 2 then did 2 buybacks, As well as the rights issue that some would have found too hard, guess who underwrote? GPG :-)

[shasta]

Thanks Contrarian, GPG certainly have the midas touch once they have enough influence at board level.

I'm still awaiting the TEN/RBC play, with both now reporting in $US they have effectively put up the "for sale sign" to a US consortium & with 4 investors having over 60% combined shareholdings/block stakes (Third Ave, Perry, GPG & AMP i think?) makes for interesting times.

Still sitting on a rather large warchest too!

[floyd]

gpg brought into a little aussie company about 2 years back eserveglobal or esv...from memory they paid 13c and as of today are 1.16 ... getting close on a ten bagger.

[Lizard]

ESV! Was watching that one all the way down at 7cps and didn't have the courage to buy due to cash burn. When GPG swooped at 12cps (and the price jumped to 17cps) I didn't have any cash spare... sad ain't it....:(

Greens Is burning them At moment

[Gryffyn]

Eh?

[shasta]

Whats going on with the large volume today folks?

Over 4 million shares & we are back over $2.00?

Big boys getting in or out?

Gryffyn Greens Foods in australia lost a lot of Grocery contracts. GPG is a Big shareholder.

[winner69]

Are they still in Intellect IHG

Winner69 Do not take this as gospel but I think they Quit most if not all of this company.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

Gryffyn Greens Foods in australia lost a lot of Grocery contracts. GPG is a Big shareholder.

Ta

[gulf]

Will we get the GPG report/update tonight UK time ?

[gulf]

GPG weak overnight in London.I hope the Coats situation is going OK.They are not big on giving news out.

[shasta]

Cujo, at $1.60ish i'd imagine support would be huge, im picking $1.90 as the support level & would be surprised to see it fall below that.

When the whole RBC/TEN play happens it'll jump back over $2.

A buy for me on weakness

[Contrarian]

Gidday
Ten now own biggest supplier of mouldings to 2nd biggest hardware chain in USA. Gulf states will be requiring the odd foot of mouldings over next 6 months.

[Base Trader]

Coats: There is current concern with embargoed stock that some producers will come under pressure (credit risks). There is also a lack of visibility with the current spat and the EU in their will they won't they show some teeth in enforcement.

It is essentially Southern Europe (textile manufacturers vs Northern Europe (textile consumers). My guess is that in the interests of re-igniting the consumers the embargo will be lifted in time - but all this uncertainty is bad for order flow. The lack of visibility is bad for Coats - however, this is unlikely to be a permanent state of affairs.

I also note that their quoted portfolio is performing weaker. Nothing too bad - just not a great run. I am a longer term holder and will increase on weakness unless my Coats view changes. But at present there is nothing to change that view.

The share weakness just ahead of anouncement is a bit concerning though.

[shasta]

Up 6 cents to $2.03 at the moment, whats going on this share doesn't have these kind of jumps in a day!

Volume seems normal?

[Gryffyn]

has been more roller-coaster than normal, that's for sure

[Gryffyn]

has lost a fair bit over last week or so - maybe a correction or maybe someone thinks the news isn't as bad as they first thought. too much listening to tea ladies.

[shasta]

Up 8 cents to $2.05 on the back of no news?

This share just doesnt move up like this, very weird, however trading volume seems normal?

I'm confused, anyone shed any light on this?

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Up 8 cents to $2.05 on the back of no news?

This share just doesnt move up like this, very weird, however trading volume seems normal?

I'm confused, anyone shed any light on this?


This may have something to do with the ramifications of the trade negotiation results between China and the EU.

[shasta]

Cheers warthog.

I'm sure Basetrader can provide us with an update re Coats in due course

[Base Trader]

The EU release of the Chinese Textiles has been out for a few days now so that may have removed some concerns for purchasers.

However, looking at the trade flow - it begam with a 230k order at open which sponged up all the stock at a guess. The trading immediately went above $2. Buyers were happy to buy there. Is it because results are due and someone knows something? Or is it becuase an Insto picked up some GPG early and others thought it was indication that someone knows something?

[shasta]

Cheers BT,

I guess tomorrows volume & buy depth will tell us more. WHo do you use for market depth, i use ASB Securities but they arent the most reliable.

[Base Trader]

Bloomberg. I have it set up to capture GPG news and share price moves of constitute securities.

I also try to capture currency changes and various baskets of commodity prices and run predictive models for fun. Limited success (i.e. nothing significant enough tio risk money on) to date because the share has remained range bound.

[coge]

So when do we get to see the half yearly?

Or have the corporate governance do-gooders been at Sir Ron again?

[Gryffyn]

well, too be fair it only partly makes up for a suck week before.

[Gryffyn]

but on the whole it remains the main part of my portfolio and has been very kind over the years :-)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Agree Gryff - but we need to look on the bright side - at least it didn't keep going down!!


So has anybody any theories, or just knees on ground hands clasped together stuff? ;)

TWR purchased a reasonably-sized player in the insurance retailing market either today or yesterday in Australia. This will likely contribute positively to the TWR bottom line in the medium-term.

The deal cut between China and the EU provides some degree of certainty - insofar as parts of the equation are now looking more predictable - going forward for Coates.

Then there's the prospect of further falls in the Kiwi$, although this is far from clear in the short-term.

disc: hold GPG

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by warthog



So has anybody any theories, or just knees on ground hands clasped together stuff? ;)


Mate, that's investing in the sharemarket all over. I wouldn't sleep at night if I reflected on how much money was in other peoples hands and at the whim of not always rational forces.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

[quote]
Mate, that's investing in the sharemarket all over. I wouldn't sleep at night if I reflected on how much money was in other peoples hands and at the whim of not always rational forces.


On the other hand you could be thankful for the irrationality as it may - depending on your outlook - offer you opportunity.

[Base Trader]

I note Gordon Brown came out with a scathing attack on the quota system yesterday. He said that GB would throw its weight behind eliminating it. His stated belief in the article he wrote for the FT was that the Chinese have invested in technology, infrastructure and skills and the Europeans have simply fallen behind. Protectionism he said will not last.

The general feeling is that the quota system is unsustainable and will fall over. How can you police a quota of 10,000 different mills? This will hit retailers who will be unable to purchase direct from the Chinese as they run the risk of missing the quota cut off (don't forget the goods are stopped at port) and the Chinese will demand Letters of Credit securing shipments.

The parellel importers will be rubbing their hands in glee (legal and illegal). I for one will be down the market with the Trouble and strife with a monkey in my pocket to have a butchers at the cheap cloths. There is no way I am paying another GBP5 for my Y fronts and gold tops.

[Gryffyn]

True warthog, true.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Result due out tomorrow.

Being sold down today - result probably not that good if that's the case


Yes, but on the other hand, not many large parcels being sold.

I am picking a moderate result with some writedowns but overall a positive outlook for progress over the next couple of quarters.

Disc: hold GPG

[Gryffyn]

GPG
13/09/2005
HALFYR

REL: 0836 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

HALFYR: GPG: Interim Results

Guinness Peat Group plc
("GPG" or "the Company" or "the Group")

PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDING
30 JUNE 2005

CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

"IFRS stands for International Financial Reporting Standards but from a fast,
unfriendly look at them, might as well be Incomprehensible Fouled-up
Reporting Standards."

Trevor Sykes
Australian Financial Review
22/1/05

GPG has experienced a good year so far in 2005 and the GBP50 million interim
result largely speaks for itself.

The main source of profit in the half year was the sale of De Vere shares and
other capital transactions but there was also a useful all-round increase
from trading subsidiaries, dividends and interest.

It is necessary to add a note of caution however, as these are the first
accounts prepared in accordance with IFRS which considerably distorts
comparisons with earlier periods.

The profit after tax recognised under IFRS is at least GBP8 million higher
than would have been the case under GPG's traditional conservative approach
to financial reporting. A more valid comparable figure, therefore, would be
nearer to GBP42 million, which is still a good result for the period.

There are also a few offsetting debit items but on much smaller scale.
Overall, it will be necessary to await the full year accounts to measure the
precise impact of IFRS but the initial impression is certainly not
favourable.

IFRS also introduces changes to the Balance Sheet, mainly in two respects.
The restatement of the share portfolio at market rather than book value is
harmless enough but the appearance of "Retirement benefits obligations"
totalling GBP142 million, of which ?86 million is in respect of GPG's funded
schemes, requires explanation.

That figure looks very daunting at first glance but fortunately it is not the
reality. A discussion of all the issues relating to UK "pensions" would
require excessive length in this Report but suffice to say that pension funds
in the GPG group have total assets of nearly GBP2 billion. In the Board's
view, barring a disastrous investment performance in the future, that is
vastly more than sufficient to cover every last obligation to every last
pensioner over the next 30 years or more as the Funds gradually exhaust their
continuing liabilities. A more positive outlook is that there could
ultimately, in fact, be a large surplus at any future terminal point.

The residual GBP56 million of the provisions relates to promised retirement
payments to Coats Europe employees and for which annual provision has been
made in Coats' published accounts since well before the GPG acquisition.

In the 2004 Annual Report it was stated that Coats' 3 year development plan
was "slightly behind schedule" but there has been considerable progress in
the last 6 months as evidenced by the net profit of GBP14.4 million for the
period.

Coats itself reported a net profit after tax of US$33.3 million (?17.7
million) including currency gains of US$22.5 million (GBP12.0 million) but is
GBP3.3 million lower at the GPG level due to the elimination of some of the
currency content.

Coats performance is very encouraging notwithstanding there is still a long
way to go to reach our ultimate objectives for the company.

All of the comments re Coats in the last Annual Report remain valid and will
be updated in more detail at next balance date.

The balance sheet is in excellent shape with strong liquidity despite a
reasonably active investment program. The simplified parent company version
is shown below which for investors is the most relevant measure of GPG. It
should be noted that the share portfolio is now shown at market value.

SIMPLIFIED BALANCE SHEET AT 30 JUNE 2005

GBPm
Cash at Bank 192
Debtors 9
Coats 189
Nationwide 7
Staveley (UK & USA) (14)
Canberra Investment Corp 25
Turners & Growers 43
Capral 30
Tower 59
Australia

[Gryffyn]

GPG
13/09/2005
HALFYR

REL: 0838 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

HALFYR: GPG: GPG Announcement re Coats Group Ltd

Guinness Peat Group plc

The following unaudited consolidated results of Coats Group Limited ("the
Company") for the six months ended 30 June 2005 are released by Guinness Peat
Group plc ("GPG") for information only. The Company, which became a
subsidiary of GPG on 1 April 2004, is the holding company of Coats Group.

Richard Russell
Company Secretary
Guinness Peat Group plc

12 September 2005

Contacts:

Blake Nixon (UK) 00 44 20 7484 3370
Gary Weiss (Australia) 00 61 2 8298 4305
Tony Gibbs (New Zealand) 00 64 9 379 8888

12 September 2005

Coats Group Limited: unaudited results* for the six months ended 30 June 2005

Financial summary

Like-for-like**
2005 2004 2004
Half year Half year Half year
Unaudited Unaudited Unaudited
US$m US$m US$m
Revenue 830.4 812.9 779.0

Operating profit before reorganisation, impairment and other exceptional
items (see note 2) 66.5 41.8 41.3

Operating profit 54.2 34.6 18.9

Pre-tax profit 45.0 1.3

Net cash (outflow)/inflow generated by operations (5.8) 69.4

Capital expenditure 38.5 40.2

Net debt*** 483.9 511.1

Net gearing*** 147% 160%

* See note 1 for basis of preparation of this statement

** Excluding the impact of exchange translation and the acquisition and
disposal of businesses

*** Net debt at 30 June 2005 has been increased by $23.5 million from
adopting IAS 32 and IAS 39 as at 1 January 2005 (as the preference share
capital of a subsidiary undertaking is now classified as debt)

Chairman's statement

Overview

The Group performed well in the first six months of 2005, with profit before
tax of $45.0 million (2004 - $1.3 million) being ahead of management
expectations for the half year.

These interim results are reported under International Financial Reporting
Standards (IFRS), as set out in Note 1 on the basis of preparation.

Results

Operating results for the first six months of 2005, which are entirely
generated from our Thread operations, showed a significant improvement over
2004 as follows:

Like-for-like* sales and operating profit

2004 comparative
$m Exchange retranslation
$m Acquisitions/ disposals
$m 2004 adjusted
$m 2005 reported
$m Increase
%
External sales 779.0 24.5 9.4 812.9 830.4 2%
Operating profit pre reorganisation, impairment and other exceptional items
(note 2)

41.3

1.1

(0.6)

41.8

66.5

59%
Operating profit 18.9 16.3 (0.6) 34.6 54.2 57%

* excluding the impact of exchange translation, acquisitions and disposals

An operating profit (before reorganisation, impairment and other exceptional
items) of $66.5 million (2004 - $41.3 million) was generated, on sales of
$830.4 million (2004 - $779.0 million). On a like-for-like basis, sales
increased by 2%, due primarily to a strong performance from the Group's North
American Crafts business. Operating profit (before reorganisation,
impairment and other exceptional items) increased by 59%, driven by North
American Crafts and benefits from reorganisation of the Group's industrial
businesses in Western Europe and North America.

This reorganisation programme has been accelerated in 2005 in order to hasten
the reduction of the Group's cost base in Western Europe and North America,
following the migration of industrial thread demand to lower cost regions.
Reorganisation costs of $28.0 million (2004 - $18.9 million) were incurred in
the period.

Profit before tax increased to $45.0 million (2004 - $1.3 million), including
$22.5 million (2004 - nil) exchange gains, of which $15.7 million was
recognised as an exceptional item in operating profit and $6.8 million was
recognised in f

[Gryffyn]

GPG
13/09/2005
HALFYR

REL: 0841 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

HALFYR: GPG: GPG: Transition to IFRS

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND RELEASE

COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT

Guinness Peat Group plc ("GPG" or "the Company")

Report on transition to International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS")

The following release provides an analysis of the key changes to GPG
consolidated reported results arising from the implementation of IFRS.

GPG is a UK company. In common with all other UK companies listed on the
official list of the London Stock Exchange it is obliged under European Union
requirements to adopt International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
Previously GPG produced its accounts under UK Generally Accepted Accounting
Principles ("UK GAAP").

GPG is publishing in this separate Announcement a narrative explanation and
reconciliations between IFRS and previously reported financial information
under UK GAAP as at 1 January 2004, 30 June 2004 and 31 December 2004.

Richard Russell
Company Secretary
Guinness Peat Group plc
London

12 September 2005

Contact Telephone Numbers:

London Blake Nixon ) 0044 20 7484 3370
Richard Russell )

Sydney Gary Weiss 00612 8298 4300

Auckland Tony Gibbs 0064 9379 8888

INTRODUCTION

Transition to International Financial Reporting Standards.

In accordance with EU Regulations, Guinness Peat Group plc and its
subsidiaries together ("the Group") is required to adopt International
Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") for accounting periods beginning on or
after 1 January 2005 and prepare its consolidated financial statements on an
IFRS basis.

The Group will report under IFRS for the first time in its interim results
for the six months to 30 June 2005 and its first full financial statements
under IFRS will be in its 2005 Annual Report. The IFRS results for the 2005
half year and the 2005 full year will include comparative IFRS information
for the relevant corresponding periods in 2004.

This statement includes the consolidated results of the Group converted from
a UK Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("UK GAAP") basis to an IFRS
basis for the year to 31 December 2004, six months to 30 June 2004 and an
opening balance sheet as at 1 January 2004.

This document also contains the principal accounting policies adopted under
IFRS.

The more significant changes arising from the restatement relate to:

- The recognition, on the balance sheet, of pension scheme liabilities and of
brands.

- The cessation of goodwill amortisation.

- The de-recognition of proposed dividends as liabilities at the balance
sheet date.

BASIS OF PREPARATION

The financial information has been prepared in accordance with IFRS. The
accounting policies applied are consistent with those that the Directors
expect to use in the 31 December 2005 financial statements and assume that
all IFRS, including the interpretation of those standards, issued by the IASB
effective for 2005 reporting will be endorsed by the European Commission.
There is, however, a possibility that the Directors may determine that some
changes to these policies are necessary when preparing the full annual
financial statements for the first time in accordance with IFRS at 31
December 2005.

The rules for first time adoption are set out in IFRS 1 - First-time Adoption
of International Financial Reporting Standards. In general, a company is
required to select IFRS accounting policies and apply these retrospectively
to determine its opening balance sheet under IFRS. The standard allows a
number of exceptions to this general principle to assist companies as they
change to reporting under IFRS. The Group has taken advantage of certain of
these exemptions as noted below:

Business combinations: business combinations prior to the IFRS transition
date (1 January 2004) have not been restated onto an IFRS basis.

Financial instruments: financial

[Gryffyn]

Wow - bugger all from the company for ages and this onslaught of info.

Like this bit:

CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

"IFRS stands for International Financial Reporting Standards but from a fast,
unfriendly look at them, might as well be Incomprehensible Fouled-up
Reporting Standards."

Trevor Sykes
Australian Financial Review
22/1/05

GPG has experienced a good year so far in 2005 and the GBP50 million interim
result largely speaks for itself.

[Gryffyn]

Up 5-6c so far so the market seems happy enough :-)

[BRICKS]

Sir Ron the smartest man to leave NZ Rich and live in Australia.. [8D]

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Up 5-6c so far so the market seems happy enough :-)


Yes Gryffn, for the time-being (of course we both hope it stays that way, but hope is neither here nor there).

Interesting that GPG are quite happy to sit on a pile of cash. This is a clear indication to me that they see plenty of opportunity out there but equally that some of the existing projects might require further investment.

To know they have a good grasp of the regulatory issues is further comfort for the market.

I note that a NZ-based investment advisory service considered GPG to be a buy at around NZ$2.50 at the beginning of the year.

disc: hold GPG.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Up 5-6c so far so the market seems happy enough :-)


Yes Gryffn, for the time-being (of course we both hope it stays that way, but hope is neither here nor there).

Interesting that GPG are quite happy to sit on a pile of cash. This is a clear indication to me that they see plenty of opportunity out there but equally that some of the existing projects might require further investment.

To know they have a good grasp of the regulatory issues is further comfort for the market.

I note that a NZ-based investment advisory service considered GPG to be a buy at around NZ$2.50 at the beginning of the year.

disc: hold GPG.


GPG is BUYing GREENS food AU on the creep setup up from 29% to 34% one day will have 51% without a takeover that's what they do with a lot of company`s so the cash is needed, NO great head on battles like the past.. [8D]

[coge]

Better than I was expecting, should chug along nicely now. As it should. Bob Jones has some interesting things to say about Sir Ron in his latest book "My Property World"

disc; Held since 1999

[whatsup]

Yes coge but tell me (IMHO) if sur robbb told you "that the sky was blue" would you believe him??!!!!

[artemis]

quote:Originally posted by coge

Better than I was expecting, should chug along nicely now. As it should. Bob Jones has some interesting things to say about Sir Ron in his latest book "My Property World"

disc; Held since 1999


What does Bob Jones have to say?

[coge]

Artemis, he was speaking in metaphors, describing Sir Ron as an expert tuna fisherman ie the sea is full of other species (investments) which he knows nothing about.

It was all to do with being asked for advice, & how it often can bite you an the ar*e. So sometimes it's best just to say that you don't know.

Whatsup, yes, but only if it was indeed blue at that particular time.

[whatsup]

co* would he /she spell it "blew":: beware, be b*oody beware,thats all I say!!!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]
GPG is BUYing GREENS food AU on the creep setup up from 29% to 34% one day will have 51% without a takeover that's what they do with a lot of company`s so the cash is needed, NO great head on battles like the past.. [8D]


For each battle, choose the right cannon.

I think GPG is plenty capable of head-on battles. They just need to decide that one particular approach is better that another. No point in bidding wars for cheap assets though of course ...

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Now lads - after that very good profit result, especially from the Coats operation there is no reason whatsoever that this share should ever dip below $2 again. If it does I will get very frustrated and angry- and you don't want to see me when I'm angry - GGRRRRRRR!!!!


If you think that is a good contribution from Coates, then wait some more.

I think it's likely that GPG will fluctuate below NZ$2.00 again. As some have noted here, this may be more of an opportunity more than anything else.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:
GGRRRRRRR!!!!

Call that a growl?

GGGRRRRRRHHHHHHH!!!!!!

and that's just a warm up, I'm a natural at it.

[Lizard]

Why does anyone post on GPG? I mean, love this stock. Great retirement fund. Set and forget. Etc, etc,

Just going to keep on making 10-20% per annum. Yawn.

The real challenge for all STer's should be to keep trying to outperform your GPG's!

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Now lads - after that very good profit result, especially from the Coats operation there is no reason whatsoever that this share should ever dip below $2 again. If it does I will get very frustrated and angry- and you don't want to see me when I'm angry - GGRRRRRRR!!!!


What about share splits? ;)

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Why does anyone post on GPG? I mean, love this stock. Great retirement fund. Set and forget. Etc, etc,

Just going to keep on making 10-20% per annum. Yawn.

The real challenge for all STer's should be to keep trying to outperform your GPG's!

Feel good factor [8D] I started this thread beacuse some loser way back - now banned I think - called GPG the 'loser's' stock. Laugh.

[Snow Leopard]

So would you guys recommend it has a buy then, or would it be better to wait until this IFRS distortion thing settles down? ;)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

So would you guys recommend it has a buy then, or would it be better to wait until this IFRS distortion thing settles down? ;)


The warthog recommends GPG under NZ$2.20 as a medium-long term hold.

disc: GPG

[Gryffyn]

I'd always recommend it PT :-0 as WH says, med to long it jsut keeps on going.

[shasta]

Too right there Gryffyn, up 6 cents to $2.11 at the moment, a nice ride over the last week or so!

[Gryffyn]

Good movement on good volume. Good :-)

[OldRider]

GPG may get overlooked as it is a UK listed company.

As such it is not included in the NZX, CSV prices file.

I guess this leaves it in a similar position to ASX companies with a secondary NZX listing, they don't get a mention either. eg BCA or ANZ

[Contrarian]

Gidday Cujodog
I think it's because GPG aren't a "BRAND" in NZ or an employer so it doesn't feature.
Examples of similar Suzy Aiken Ms Hawkesbyisms are
"NZR are expensive shares & Sealegs are cheap!"
"The NZ dollar rose today (Smile)"

Ps Hawkesby is related to G Hart by her brother Marrying Harts Daughter.or something similar

OLD RIDER GPG comes up in CSV format security by code csv format letter G have done this tonight to check it still works

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Hi Gryffyn
Have you ever noticed that the financial media always go out of their way not to report on GPG's share movements when they do their summary at the end of the day.

GPG is hardly a household name like FPA/FPH, CAH, BNZ (etc.). GPG interests are diverse and not confined to a single sector, country or economic area, so it's hard for your audience to conceive of them simply.

NPX is moving in the same direction - you probably don't hear much about them either.

Who here would admit to being the target audience for the NZ media's market summary anyway? :D

[OldRider]

ENIGMA:
I think you have referred to the NZX list
of securities that are tradeable on the NZX, and you are correct for this. However, the "CSV downloadable PRICES file" , is rather shorter, and
on this GPG is missed, my own thought is that the missing companies are those whose listing is a secondary one for the NZX.

I have a screen shortcut that automatically downloads the file and parks the data in a spreadsheet, so can't remember just where on the NZX site this is available. This file is available during the day, although prices are 20 or 30 minutes behind time.

I find this useful, rather better than the ASX
where the information must be got from a secondary
supplier and paid for, or a wait till midday the following day to get it free.

[Snow Leopard]

The CSV file at:
http://www.nzx.com/scripts/portal_pages/p_csv_by_market.csv?code=ALL&board_type=S
lists every code on the NZSX.

[OldRider]

Paper Tiger: You are right, the URL you have given is different to what I have used, I have used mine for a long while, so perhaps change has occurred over this period.I have used--

http://www.nzx.com/p_csv_by_index.csv?index=ALL

It looks to be complete, thanks I shall start using it.

[Gryffyn]

Cujodog - I have wondered at that. Thought it may be a little due to their dual listing or more international focus.

[Dough Boy]

Love this stock bought-in during 00,01 and 02 when they were well below NTA and now sit back and watch them make hay as they corner the world's market for thread. What a lovely boring profitable business, nothing like the dangerous existing loss making business of vodka making that makes 42B so entertaining.

[Gryffyn]

They are nearly always below NTA - most investment companies are.

[Dough Boy]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

They are nearly always below NTA - most investment companies are.


Yeah but really below back then and still below now!

[coge]

I think the anti-cartel fines are old news & already built into the price. GPG will likely appeal. Think the chairman covered this issue in the 2004 annual report.

So it hasn't come out of the blue. Bloody EU socialists.

[Gryffyn]

Money already set aside I thought. As coge says - old news.

[warthog]

"Sale of shares by private treaty pursuant to a book build"

Anybody know anything about this?

---------
RBC
19/09/2005
SSH

REL: 1032 HRS Rubicon Limited

SSH: RBC: SSH Notice From Guinness Peat Group Plc

NOTICE 25826 DETAILS

Submitted Date : 19-Sep-2005 10:30
Status : Accepted

Substantial : Y Director : N
Add Holder : N Change Holder : N
Ceased Holder : Y Change Nature : N

Issuer Code : RBC Rubicon Limited
Holder : Guinness Peat Group Plc

Address : 1st Floor
: Times Place
: 45 Pall Mall
: London
Country : United Kingdom

Contact Name : Anthony Ian Gibbs
Phone : 09 379 8888

Total of Interest : 0
Total Issued : 283631406

Class : RBC
Votes Attached : 1

Beneficial
Total of Interest : 0
Last % held : 19.99
Names : Ithaca (Custodians) Limited
Transaction Dates : 16 September 2005
Total Votes : 56716224
Considerations : $58,417,711

Non Beneficial
Total of Interest :

Description :

Sale of shares by private treaty pursuant to a book build
Documentation
With Notice : No
Not Filed : Yes
Been Filed : No
Number of pages : 0

Date of Last Notice : 04-Jul-2002

Submitted By : Anthony Ian Gibbs
End CA:00120872 For:RBC Type:SSH Time:2005-09-19:10:32:56

[Gryffyn]

Ithaca totally owned by GPG as far as I know.

[shasta]

Warthog, Rubicon has 3 remaining shareholders all holding over 10% blocking stakes. Probably sensing that the RBC/TEN play will become a bidding war, them selling out at a decent profit will allow the American interests to fight over it, & they will already have a place to park those funds, as they seem to have a lot of cash & must be eyeing up another acquistion.

[Gryffyn]

The company that is, as opposed to being the homeland and palace of Odysseus

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Warthog, Rubicon has 3 remaining shareholders all holding over 10% blocking stakes. Probably sensing that the RBC/TEN play will become a bidding war, them selling out at a decent profit will allow the American interests to fight over it, & they will already have a place to park those funds, as they seem to have a lot of cash & must be eyeing up another acquistion.


Thanks Shasta. Does this mean that GPG have exited the TEN/RBC space? If it were to become a bidding war, then it would make sense to sell then would it not?

[shasta]

Yes, they have sold there entire 19.99% stake.

Makes sense to me for them to get out, they have achieved what they wanted, as for the book build i'm not sure myself but would assume overseas interests

[Ted2]

Is this a healthy profit for GPG? Has anyone got any figures?
(I assume so as GPG up another 2c today.)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Ted2

Is this a healthy profit for GPG? Has anyone got any figures?
(I assume so as GPG up another 2c today.)


27%+ in a shade over two years, according to various figures.

Unless my calculator - or brain - isn't working correctly ...

-------
Westie posted this on the RBC thread ...

Corporate raider Guinness Peat Group (GPG) has sold its stake in forestry and biotech investment firm Rubicon to an undisclosed buyer.
The sale of the 19.9% stake went through on Friday at $1.03 per share, valuing the stake at $58.42 million, according to a substantial shareholder notice filed to the Stock Exchange today. (etc.)

... and this from elsewhere:

Investment company Guinness Peat Group (GPG) sold its 19.9% stake in forestry and biotech investment firm Rubicon to an undisclosed buyer, for what's understood to be a $16 million-$18 million gain since purchasing the stake a little over two years ago. The sale price of $1.03, valuing the stake at $58.4 million, was just under today's trading at around $1.06

GPG executive director Tony Gibbs resigned from the boards of both Rubicon and its 50% subsidiary, wood products company Tenon.

[777]

I don't doubt that this transaction has taken place but why have GPG not informed the NZX. Surely the sale has some impact on the value of the shares hence notification should be required.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by 777

I don't doubt that this transaction has taken place but why have GPG not informed the NZX. Surely the sale has some impact on the value of the shares hence notification should be required.


Try looking under RBC.

RBC's latest is:

Auckland, 19 September 2005 - Rubicon advises that following the sale of GPG's 19.99% shareholding in Rubicon earlier today, Mr A I Gibbs has resigned from the Rubicon Board.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by 777

I don't doubt that this transaction has taken place but why have GPG not informed the NZX. Surely the sale has some impact on the value of the shares hence notification should be required.

I think that was what the ssh notice was for RBC as per above.

[Gryffyn]

as per the Herald:

The big news on the corporate front today was GPG's sale of its 19.9 percent stake in forestry and biotech investor Rubicon for $58.4m.

The sale, via an institutional bookbuild on Friday at $1.03 per share, adds to GPG's already impressive cash war chest and fuels speculation it could be looking for other investments, Mr Smalley said.

Rubicon closed 7c lower on the news at 105, its 50 percent subsidiary Tenon was down a cent at 444, and GPG added a cent to 212.

[Gryffyn]

Gibbs off those boards means he can concentrate on a few other things.

Sell off AWM? Buy something complementary? Or perhaps, and hopefully, strike out and buy another bargain company in need of turn arounf like TWR.

All rumours to this thread please ;)

[neopole]

i see nog in the gun sights.
so much potential.
right up GPG 's ally

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by neopole

i see nog in the gun sights.
so much potential.
right up GPG 's ally


I would be very surprised.

Where's the potential in NOG, other than that found in any long-shot mining co.?

[neopole]

the potential in NOG would be the proven resources,
and the ajoining permits and concents alreading gotten.
seems like energy is only going to get more scarce.
and this seems like an ideal time to get in, before the mad rush in a years time.
but this is only my opinion.
i've been watching GPG for years.
and am taking a punt on it.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by neopole

the potential in NOG would be the proven resources,
and the ajoining permits and concents alreading gotten.
seems like energy is only going to get more scarce.
and this seems like an ideal time to get in, before the mad rush in a years time.
but this is only my opinion.
i've been watching GPG for years.
and am taking a punt on it.


Some punts are more equal than others.

Are you a NOG holder at the moment?

Disc: hold GPG; no NOG.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Gibbs off those boards means he can concentrate on a few other things.

Sell off AWM? Buy something complementary? Or perhaps, and hopefully, strike out and buy another bargain company in need of turn arounf like TWR.


I think it's likely to be offshore, so, as I've mentioned before, GPG would be to some extent a currency hedge/punt and all-round speculative investment rolled into one.

[Base Trader]

Just back from India so I have been a bit out of the loop really.

Although I was not visiting mills - the general feel from the Bankers I saw was that the Indian mills were carrying on business ok with no significant credit stressors - which is always comforting in this low margin business. I expect the same across the sub-continent.

However, the key to Coates is the renaissance in home crafts in the US and to a lesser extent in the EU. Good sales and sound margins. In all the business apprears to be making adequate progress. The FX exceptional I would expect was not speculation and would have been the hedging of cashflows due - but no meaningful comment is made on that. I expect the exceptional component is cashflows due after the Half year end or on asset sale.

It will be interesting to see what their plans are with what should be a sound cashflow in this half year from equity and asset sales made and planned.

Away for another week from Tuesday - so excuse my absense.

[shasta]

Wonder if PPP are a GPG target?

NOG might be too tough a nut to crack but PPP would give them a foot in the door?

[Gryffyn]

GPG exits Rubicon
20 September 2005
By PAM GRAHAM

Guinness Peat Group has quit its investment in Rubicon for a $16 million profit amid speculation it has a new target in its sights.

GPG always had potential investments in the pipeline but nothing was imminent, its New Zealand-based director, Tony Gibbs, said.

"This investment has matured and we're taking the profit and moving on," he said.

The investment vehicle founded by Sir Ron Brierley has achieved a rare feat - it turned a profit in the forest sector.

GPG sold 56.7 million shares in Rubicon, an investment company holding former Fletcher Challenge assets, at $1.03 each.

It has been a shareholder since 2002 when its average entry price was 75 cents. The stake sold at a discount to the share price on Friday of $1.12.

Rubicon shares were down 7c at $1.05 yesterday, while GPG was up 1c to $2.12, and Tenon was down 1c at $4.44.
Advertisement
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The Rubicon share buyers are not known but it is believed the stake has been broken up and sold to as many as five institutions, mostly foreign. Substantial security holder notices in coming days are likely to reveal buyers.

If they were North American hedge funds there would be pressure for further corporate moves to realise value in assets held, analysts said.

Mr Gibbs bowed out on a positive note, saying GPG was leaving Tenon in good heart and he wished the company well.

Mr Gibbs resigned as chairman of Rubicon and a director of Tenon yesterday.

Rubicon owns 50.5 per cent of Tenon, the former Fletcher Challenge Forests. It also has a tree-cloning business which has merged with Carter Holt Harvey's tree nursery and it owns biotechnology business Arborgen with International Paper and MeadWestvaco as partners.

The investment in Rubicon was a leveraged play into Tenon as Rubicon owned 20 per cent of Tenon before moving to control.

When GPG raided Rubicon it found a rival it did not know about and a corporate battle ensued. United States hedge fund Perry Corporation had used controversial equity swaps to invest without owning the shares. GPG took the US investor to court, ultimately losing, though it was credited by commentators with the moral high ground.

Stephen Walker of Walker Capital Management said it was probably a small positive that GPG had quit Rubicon.

The move will free Rubicon to pursue opportunities. Its original purpose was business development. Mr Walker rated the company's bio-tech investments, and North American investors are also believed to see value in them.

Arthur Lim of Macquarie Equities said the deal was not a surprise as GPG had been sitting on the investment for a while and had to share influence.

Rubicon chief executive Luke Moriarty said it was positive that such a large number of shares was placed so quickly.

US-based fund manager Third Avenue owns 10 per cent of Rubicon and may well emerge as a larger shareholder. It is a so-called value investor and holds for the long term. Perry Corp has 19.8 per cent and AMP owns 10 per cent.

Mr Gibbs said GPG had lobbied against Fletcher Challenge Forests buying the huge central North Island Forest Partnership estate ultimately bought by Harvard University's endowment fund. GPG was instrumental in the sale of Fletcher's forests and structural sawmills, he said.

[Gryffyn]

Testy relationship ends with shares sold low

20.09.05
By Richard Inder and NZPA

Corporate raider Guinness Peat Group has sold its cornerstone stake in forestry and biotech investment firm Rubicon, bringing to a close one of the more acrimonious chapters in New Zealand corporate history.

The sale of the 19.9 per cent stake at $1.03 per share values the holding at $58.4 million. That is well south of Friday's closing price of $1.12.

However, GPG director Tony Gibbs was philosophical, saying GPG made a profit of $16 million to $18 million on its investment.

"From a GPG point of view we've booked a modest profit, and we're closing the file and moving on," Gibbs said. "It's time to get out. We've been there and done it, and it's time to move on."

Rubicon shares closed down 7c at $1.05. Shares of Tenon, Rubicon's main investment, dipped 1c to $4.42, while GPG rose 1c to $2.12.

GPG has a colourful history with Rubicon.

In 2002 it played a major role in blocking a bid by Fletcher Challenge Forests to buy the Central North Island Forestry Partnership. At the time Rubicon held a cornerstone stake in Fletcher Forests, now renamed Tenon.

GPG also took fellow Rubicon shareholder Perry Corp to court in an acrimonious and prolonged legal battle in which it alleged Perry, a multibillion-dollar US-based hedge fund, concealed the size of its stake.

But GPG supported Rubicon's bid for 50.01 per cent of Tenon and its later reorganisation to focus on wood processing and marketing.

Gibbs was chairman of Tenon and sat on the Rubicon board but resigned from the posts yesterday.

Reasons for the disposal are not clear. Sources have suggested GPG wished to merge Tenon and Rubicon, saving on head office and listing costs. But its ambition was thwarted by board disagreements over the value of Rubicon's key biotech asset Arborgen.

They also said the Rubicon board wanted to leave the option of a sale of Tenon open and believed such a deal would be easier if it had its own sharemarket listing.

Others argue that GPG is clearing the decks for another transaction.

"You wonder if it has got some precursor to something happening with Tenon as well," ASB Securities managing director Tim Preston said. "(The deal) is obviously part of a bigger picture."

GPG, the investment vehicle of Sir Ron Brierley, is amassing an impressive cash fund. It recently sold several British businesses, including hotel group De Vere, for a combined 50 million ($130 million).

"Apart from their Coats (UK textile company) holding I think their next biggest holding is cash now, so the market is certainly going to be interested to see what they are going to do with that cash," Hamilton Hindin Greene broker James Smalley said.

Walker Capital Management's Steve Walker said the disposal would allow Rubicon to pursue its own agenda.

"I am pleased to see Rubicon freed up," he said.

Gibbs said that the sale proceeds would be absorbed into GPG's coffers and that the company had no plans for the money.

"In the totality of GPG it's not a huge amount of money, but it's still significant."

The identity of the bidders for GPG's stake are not known. The lack of substantial security holder notices filed to the stock exchange suggests an offshore buyer.

Rubicon chief executive Luke Moriarty said he was as in the dark about the buyers' identities as anyone.

"We have to wait and see who's on the other side of the placement of those shares before commenting," he said.

GPG's exit leaves Perry Corp as Rubicon's cornerstone shareholder, with a 19.8 per cent stake. Insurer AMP and US investment fund Third Avenue both own 10 per cent. AMP has previously indicated it was interested in building its stake.

[Gryffyn]

Well if Chalkie was trying to talk the price down it didn't work!

As anyone contacted the independent to ask whether they included share splits in their calculations?

[coge]

If the NZD starts to drop in combination with a beneficial result, then there is no reason for GPG not to go up. In my humble estimation.

Chalkie said that 2006 might be a better year for GPG, which may actually bear out. I'm going sit to sit tight, which suits my disposition. The perfect stock for lazy buggers.[^]

[Gryffyn]

Make that lazy rich buggers ;)

[shasta]

Up 3 cents to $2.17 on decent volume, its form over the last week or so is starting to rival Chelsea's Gryffyn!

[Ted2]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

If the Independent haven't taken into account the share splits then I think they should put in a written apology.


Actually I think we should all say a big Thank You to them. It's now up 4 cents since the article came out. Basically disregard whatever the chalk says and do the opposite!![}:)]

Look at the buy depth! Wow.:D

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Up 3 cents to $2.17 on decent volume, its form over the last week or so is starting to rival Chelsea's Gryffyn!

Don't make me choose. Please. :D

[coge]

Goodness, sale of Staveley fire services pty this morning. They've had this one for a number of years. Been an active week for GPG.

[Gryffyn]

Was announced a while back - not sure what this notice all about - the conclusion I think. More cash for the coffers ...

[Sideshow Bob]

Surely they must be lining themselves up for a big play with all that CASH..........

[Contrarian]

S B
Maybe "cash" is the play at the moment.
Bird Flu
Oil prices
Inflation
Higher Interest rates
Terrorism
Cycle end
?
?
?

[Gryffyn]

Maybe they'll make a special cash repayment to all holders... now that would be a nice rumour to drive the price up. Sadly I can't substantiate it.

[shasta]

Share buyback perhaps?

[coge]

GPG have always sat on a large percentage of cash which means they can move at a moments notice.
The CLN's were a cash payment in drag, & they said they wouldn't go there again as few took them up. I think it's unlikely to mean any buyback or cash payment, however I'm happy to be proven wrong.

[Gryffyn]

Either way I think we all win. Share buy back = tax friendly return. Cash payment (non div) - tax friendly return. New acquistion = usual GPG profit from cap gain.

:-)

[Gryffyn]

I see we saved on some redundancy money by keeping the CEO fella :-)

[coge]

We're waiting for the NZD to devalue some, so we can rub our hands together & enjoy a mutual back-slapping session. Either way it's nice to be missed, cujo.

[Gryffyn]

Long time in and not planning on leaving in a hurry.

[shasta]

Sitting back & basking in the glory that is GPG, awaiting there next move....

[Gryffyn]

It seems a little less volitile as of late.

[Gryffyn]

One of my reasons/hopes for having so much in this stock is that its overseas component should balance out local volitility. Of course if all the markets dip then this won't be any different.

I'm still picking our currency to trend down in the medium to long term and so consider that an extra hedge.

[gulf]

Very positive article in the Sunday Star Times today by Terry Hall.
Two brokers Goldman Sachs and First NZ Capital value GPG between 1.97 and 2.02 plus Coats at .52c to .63c.
This leaves plenty of room for added sp performance with TWR and AUW etc.
Will be interesting to see if the article effects the sp Monday.

[Gryffyn]

Sadly, or perhaps thankfully, those articles often don't.

[shasta]

Up a cent to $2.07, that answer your question Gulf?

GPG gets very little coverage by the media, with the exception of the recent SST article, & to be honest i prefer it that way.

It's lumpy earnings & continual snubbing of corporate goverance issues doesnt endear it to most analysts & the market in general.

[Ted2]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Up a cent to $2.07, that answer your question Gulf?

GPG gets very little coverage by the media, with the exception of the recent SST article, & to be honest i prefer it that way.

It's lumpy earnings & continual snubbing of corporate goverance issues doesnt endear it to most analysts & the market in general.


Had plenty of coverage lately. Chalkie's misleading article in Independent, NBR had decent article recently, thought I also saw something in local paper, and now SST. Pretty good really.
Like the Coates story. May just have to top up again!

[CrossTrainer]

GPG's 1 in 10 bonus is very consistent and I have done very well with them in the past. I think that I shall buy back into them at the current price.

[Gryffyn]

Go for it. Would top up but already a significan investment - over 50% of my portflio. Would have to sell something else.... mmmmm

Disc: GPG

[coge]

Heck, I must be weighted at 75% on this one, Gryff. However, I prefer to think of GPG as a performing diversified portfolio.

But given the large percentage, I won't be buying anymore. Got another project on the boil, too.

[CrossTrainer]

I think that there is a place for GPG in any good portfolio

[Gryffyn]

No worries - I did a lot of that when prices were much lower :-)

Let the dollar peak and start easing and a few local stocks go off the boil and mid to late next year this will look cheap.

[Contrarian]

Gidday
Interest rates going up again, There are legs on the Kiwi $ for a little while yet.

[Gryffyn]

Don't doubt it - that's why I'm not sorried in the short-term but looking a little further ahead.

CA deficit and slowing economy once those rates kick in will bring it down a little. Also have to consider real return and factor in inflation.

[Base Trader]

The kiwi will derail only after we stop borrowing so much. The appetite for debt needs to be satiated and turn unpalitable before the kiwi dips from a structural POV.

NZ MBS are mana for international investors because the NZ Joe would rather give up his left testicle that default on his home loan. Apetite for NZ debt is unlikely to change in the short term unless all fundamentals go too hell. We are looking at 8% trade deficit and overseas investors do not care (yet).

If we see debt belt tightening and the property market looking bleak - the kiwi will follow (or may marginally precede).

Contrarian is right - the Kiwi has legs yet.

However, in my rather reduced portfolio GPG is 50% and my favourite to ride out this weakness. Not much else I like at the moment in NZ.

[Base Trader]

sorry - meant current account deficit noty trade account deficit.

[shasta]

Down 8 cents to $1.93 & a favourable article in todays NBR mentioning this share as a buy & worth $2.60.

Top up time!

[Gryffyn]

Bizarre.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Bizarre.


THE Market as a whole seems depressed small stocks are on a tumble along with GPG as its not worth $1.90 on current corporate activities they the company are really not throwing that much at the Shareholder.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Bizarre.


Staggeringly unbelieveable!!


YIPPIE,, YIPPIE,, what for.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Bizarre.


THE Market as a whole seems depressed small stocks are on a tumble along with GPG as its not worth $1.90 on current corporate activities they the company are really not throwing that much at the Shareholder.. [8D]


Yeah right Bricks - so that's why about 5 different stockbrokers/publications have quoted GPG at a value of between $2.60-$2.90!

If you don't want to be on this money train, then don't buy a ticket:)


THE tickets are too much for so short of RIDE.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

[

THE tickets are too much for so short of RIDE.. [8D]


Yeah it's people like you who keep the share price down so low
[/quote]

Have NO connection with the share price,, may the crap be with you.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]Originally posted by cujodog

[

Have NO connection with the share price,, may the crap be with you.. [8D]


Yeah I thought you wouldn't be intelligent enough to hold these type of shares


Naughty KIWI NO way would be with peolpe like you.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

What started off with a Yippie whaterver Best off luck.. [8D]

[Base Trader]

In a downward market value is not supported in SP. Even with the current valuations at 2.60+ - this by no means the SP will follow. For years in late 90's and early 00's almost every NZ equity was valued in excess of its SP.

What i do know is that GPG has been realising non-core assets and retiring debt for the past 9 months. There business model also follows one of reaslising value and to be honest there is not to much of that about at present. In short, they perform when asset prices come off becuase they get to add their "nuts and bolts" approach to managing a company.

There recent strategy has been to reduce leverage, which is not a bad strategy when inflation rears its head.

[gulf]

GPG up in London last night 0.50p on 46K,this is the first time for a while there has been any movement.

[shasta]

Too true Basetrader, lets not be forgetting the rather sizeable pile of cash they are currently sitting on, & if/when the economic downturn hits a few companies hard in 2006, they'll be the ones lining up to take advantage!

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]Originally posted by cujodog

[

Have NO connection with the share price,, may the crap be with you.. [8D]


Yeah I thought you wouldn't be intelligent enough to hold these type of shares


Naughty KIWI NO way would be with peolpe like you.. [8D]



I am so looking forward to making so much money on these shares - I'll send you a postcard Bricks when I'm on my round the world trip, paid for courtesy of the great Guiness Peat!!!

Ignore him CD - one of the bigger losers on ST poking his head into a success thread to see what it smells like ;)

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn


quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]Originally posted by cujodog

[

Have NO connection with the share price,, may the crap be with you.. [8D]


Yeah I thought you wouldn't be intelligent enough to hold these type of shares


Naughty KIWI NO way would be with people like you.. [8D]



I am so looking forward to making so much money on these shares - I'll send you a postcard Bricks when I'm on my round the world trip, paid for courtesy of the great Guinness Peat!!!

Ignore him CD - one of the bigger losers on ST poking his head into a success thread to see what it smells like ;)


Pull the other leg you pair all your done so far is talk to yourselves
and now you want to KISS.. [8D]

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Too true Basetrader, lets not be forgetting the rather sizeable pile of cash they are currently sitting on, & if/when the economic downturn hits a few companies hard in 2006, they'll be the ones lining up to take advantage!


Hi Shasta/Basetrader

Just wondering how much this will be mitigated by the exposure ofGPG's NZ and AU assets to a downturn in this part of the world?

GPG appears to have been sold off somewhat recently - providing a welcome opportunity to increase holdings at what I consider to be pretty reasonable levels - but I can't fathom why.

[Gryffyn]

Latest $ talk should be good for GPG :-)

Disc: GPG

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Latest $ talk should be good for GPG :-)
Disc: GPG


GPG, NPX, etc. are all obvious hedges against a fall in the kiwi. As the kiwi starts to trend down, my prediction is that we will see an increasing amount of interest in stocks like this as they have solid opportunities ahead of them and carry the hedge bonus.

[Gryffyn]

Question that BT may be able to answer - in what currency do GPG have their rather large warchest? Nearly a third of cap value is in cash I think.

[shasta]

Mostly pounds isnt it?

[Base Trader]

As GPG is an ivestment vehicle it has longs and shorts (cash and borrowings, respectfully). Shasta is right that functionally it is primarily GBP, followed by AUD and then USD. NZD it has a significant short in terms of borrowings in the currency.

Most of the NZD is fixed rate debt as is the USD debt and has been since last year. Both good positions to be in at the moment also.

So as a currency play it is not bad. Coates should also be a sound driver of value this year.

[Gryffyn]

Cheers BT

[gulf]

GPG up in London last night.Maybe the currency story is getting around.With the currency situation and Coats the the sp should have very little down side from here on.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by gulf

GPG up in London last night.Maybe the currency story is getting around.With the currency situation and Coats the the sp should have very little down side from here on.


UK volumes are usually pretty light, so not much to go on there*. Also, not a lot has changed since GPG was up around $2.14 and it recently went as low as $1.90 which probably either flicked or scared a few holders out.

* That said, volume was not too bad in London Nov 7.

[shasta]

No more top up opportunities for a while then, oh well shall sit & wait!

[Gryffyn]

Top up? I'm already overflowing :-)

[Gryffyn]

The question is, what would it take to make any of you who are also significant holders sell out?

[Gryffyn]

Certainly getting some action this morning.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by gulf

GPG up in London last night.Maybe the currency story is getting around.With the currency situation and Coats the the sp should have very little down side from here on.


By the way, Coates has the signs of a good play (Basetrader's commentary is pretty enlightened IMO) but still carries risk. There are hints of what is going to happen to the global economy over the next 10 years but ultimately it is all everybody's best guess.

A few of us here have a best guess on GPG being well-positioned to take advantage of whatever happens.

Indicentally, how much PR does GPG engage in compared, say, to RBC? I note that the RBC buyback has not really spurred the market to load up on this "undervalued" stock that GPG just bailed out of.

[Gryffyn]

The bail out is looking good at the current price - down from what GPG got for sure.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

The bail out is looking good at the current price - down from what GPG got for sure.


Significantly - GPG received NZ$1.03/share for the 20% it held. But what did GPG see, if anything? I'm looking at the largest shareholders in RBC (Perry, 3rd Av., Castlerigg etc.), and thinking that they want to see some sp performance, hence the buyback and talking-up of the company. GPG's exit and the drop in sp might be coincidence, or related to the placement of GPG's stake (as some would have us believe) but that might not be the full story. CAH is going to be a very different company, which might be a factor.

[shasta]

Well said Cujo, its not a stock to be overweight in, rather morbidly obese & greedy for more.

It's track record is just too good to ignore regardless of the prevailing economic conditions.

[k1w1]

The above two quotes show that sometimes an irrational approach to holding a stock prevail.

[FYA4999]

Not sure why you're raving on about this stock. This stock was trading around $2.15 about a year ago. Hey look at it now, $2.09...WOW. Having said that, I hold this stock because based on a number of reports I've read, it is undervalued.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by FYA4999

Not sure why you're raving on about this stock. This stock was trading around $2.15 about a year ago. Hey look at it now, $2.09...WOW.


Chalkie made the same mistake, I think.


quote:Having said that, I hold this stock because based on a number of reports I've read, it is undervalued.


Really? I think it's a really speculative stock, and pretty difficult to value. Who says it is under-valued, and what did they say about FTX, WHS, etc.?

[Gryffyn]

Don't forget the divvy - sure only around 2% but on top of the one for 10 it all adds up.

[777]

Did Chalkie ever correct his analysis of GPG.

[k1w1]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Sorry Gryff, I did forget about that - I'm making too much money from this stock and my head is spinning too much.


Cujo, you are being paid in pieces of paper by GPG, not in money. Its the GPG board and management that gets paid in money.

If a lot of you paper holders suddenly wanted money for your pieces of GPG paper, then you may find that you haven't made what you think you have on your investment.

It all goes great as long as buyers keep turning up, which they might, based on the UK assets of GPG. But if you are already getting 10% increase in stock holding each year, there is less of an incentive for the existing stock holders to buy as they can increase their stock holdings already.

However it is a brilliant way to keep stockholders happy without actually paying them any of the cash that GPG makes and spends on its operations and staff. In effect it is a compulsory dividend reinvestment plan.

So lets keep the rah rah going, ignore a fairly mediocre year of results, and concentrate on the unquantifiable future value of Coates. If no one knows the facts then how can anyone be proven wrong. The masses are kept happy by issuing them 10% more paper scrip year after year after year.

Excuse my cynicism but "In Chairman Ron we trust"is more a religious belief than a quantifiable assessment of the current worth of a GPG share.

[Gryffyn]

It's not just "belief" but fact-based in that capital value has increased through a number of transactions over the years: T&G, TWR, RBC etc etc

[gulf]

I would like to see an AGM held in Auckland or Wellington or an investors road show with the directors present

[coge]

Well, you can attend meetings in London, all tax deductable.

[k1w1]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Hey K1w1

Go chill out.



Irrefutable point by point demolition of my post.

[gulf]

your onto it coge !

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Hey K1w1

One of your favourite shares went up 5c today. You must be pleased.


Remember Nietzsche ... "if you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you".

[shasta]

Didnt GPG recently post a $50m half year & on target for FY $100m profit?

I would have thought things were looking up, Kiwi?

[Snow Leopard]

The general opinion of the analysts is that this is an undervalued share.
But despite that, it is probably still a buy.

[Paddie]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

The question is, what would it take to make any of you who are also significant holders sell out?


Nothing could make me sell this little gem :)


I have held GPG for some years now and am happy with the returns.
It has rewarded shareholders with good and consistent growth, however there are alot more companies out there giving better returns. I like it in my portfolio, as it is solid and consistent.

Paddie[:p]

I

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

The general opinion of the analysts is that this is an undervalued share.
But despite that, it is probably still a buy.

:D:D:D

[k1w1]

" Warning : past history is not always a reliable guide to future performance " :)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

The general opinion of the analysts is that this is an undervalued share.
But despite that, it is probably still a buy.


Like that last comment :)

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by k1w1

" Warning : past history is not always a reliable guide to future performance " :)


So, you admitting that GPG has performed well in the past. Full of nonsense and contradictions aren't you [8D]

[Snow Leopard]

This thread has been quiet the last week, so you are all happy with the current SP?

Disc: fishing.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

This thread has been quiet the last week, so you are all happy with the current SP?

Disc: fishing.


What do you think?

Don't come the slippery eel with me son. (with acknowledgements to Monty Python I think) I have first rights on the fishing ;).

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog

Well the current share price is $2.07. This share has been valued by numerous experts at $2.80 minimum. Don't know where you went to school but my maths teacher taught me that this doesn't add up.


Tiger and Cujo,

You will note - as has mentioned before - much of the current GPG story is about Coates, Tower, and what the next resting place of their bank balance is going to be. That and the fact that they are heavy in non kiwi$ assets. Until one or more of these aspects moves, you're not going to see much happening in terms of share price.

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog
Well the current share price is $2.07. This share has been valued by numerous experts at $2.80 minimum. Don't know where you went to school but my maths teacher taught me that this doesn't add up.


What this usually means is that the analysts have made a balls-up.

However, in the case of GPG, I'll make an exception - as a steady performer rather than a heady 10-bagger...

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

This thread has been quiet the last week, so you are all happy with the current SP?

Disc: fishing.


What do you think?

Don't come the slippery eel with me son. (with acknowledgements to Monty Python I think) I have first rights on the fishing ;).


Well the current share price is $2.07. This share has been valued by numerous experts at $2.80 minimum. Don't know where you went to school but my maths teacher taught me that this doesn't add up.

Good on you for replying cujodog. Here is my reply to you, which I posted eight days ago:


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger [on 09/11/2005]

The general opinion of the analysts is that this is an undervalued share.
But despite that, it is probably still a buy.

I really don't understand why the SP is so low either, and was hoping somebody had an answer.

[k1w1]

Possibly because willing sellers are more common than buyers.:)

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by k1w1

Possibly because willing sellers are more common than buyers.:)


Actually, looks more like similar numbers of willing sellers and buyers to me.

[Base Trader]

I very much dislike movement without fundamental reason - which there is not at present.

I believe that Coates should have a sound year looking at the 1H sound growth in their market and the fact we have not seen volatile cotton prices and very low levels of default in mills. However, the performance is largely opaque and there are no direct comparables so it is a bit of guesswork.

[coge]

P/T, if you purchase now, you should be looking at a profit prior to recapitalisation around the end of the first quarter next year. As I've stated previously, it normally starts to head north after Xmas/early new year.

That's providing the usual cycle continues, & I'm not aware of any reason it won't.

Let's see if someone backs up my opinion this time!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by coge

P/T, if you purchase now, you should be looking at a profit prior to recapitalisation around the end of the first quarter next year. As I've stated previously, it normally starts to head north after Xmas/early new year.

That's providing the usual cycle continues, & I'm not aware of any reason it won't.

Let's see if someone backs up my opinion this time!


It's not whether somebody backs up your opinion or not - it's about what actually happens, n'est pas?

Let's see come January - if we can remember to come back to this discussion - what transpires. You could be lucky or right, or unlucky or wrong, but not both ;)

[Lizard]

Agree with coge. Most years I've held, there was a nice peak in price prior to the bonus issue (adjusting for dilution). Always worth remembering if you plan to sell.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

Shasta is right that functionally it is primarily GBP

Are recent drops in the share price related to the the kiwi trading above 0.40p?

If one accepts the hedge theory, then probably.

[Base Trader]

It is my guess you are right that share price changes relate to GBP. There is little else going on.

GBP unlikely to do much pending FY05 results and currency direction becomes evident.

[Base Trader]

A sound result from Tower (5.3% of GPG). However, the weighting of this shares movements will remain relative to Coats (34%). I expect a robust performance this year from Coats on the basis of relatively slight Cotton commodity volatility (although some synthetic feedstock volatility has occured), low levels of corporate defaults in textiles in 2005, and a strong craft market. Hopefully, efficiencies have occured.

Capral (6.6%) remains an issue but it is quality and production systems that remains the focus - these can be remedied and is what GPG does. These businesses cycle.

AWM (5.2%) I expect is a longer term hold and should be a robust performer.

Young & Co Brewery (3.7%) should perform well. UK introduces tonight 24 hour licenses so beer will be flowing longer.

Finally cash (17%) or GBP164m and mostly in GBP. I have some issues in GBP with current growth issues relating to higher energy costs likely, the PMI falling away and in general the UK leading indicator weaker. However, relative to the kiwi I am happy.

The latest short running and strentheing of the kiwi just indicates the simplicity of the currency problem. NZers simply borrow too much and our debt exposures are gobbled up due to the interest rate differentials. These investors seem to be oblivious to weaker data from NZ and remain blinded by the differential. NZ can wait for inflationary pressures to take effect in Japan, China and the US or reduce liquidity for currency plays (note: borrow in yen and lend in NZD). The increasing of the OCR will only continue to hurt businesses.

Hence, I see something structurally changing relative to property required. If this occurs investment flows will change also and sonme to shares. For this reason and the stupid proposal to CGT overseas equities I like GPG over the longer term.

However, when all is said and done - the Coats result is the key one.

[Gryffyn]

Rallied a little yesterday - probably on the TWR and AUW results.

[Gryffyn]

GPG takes 20per cent of vehicle auctioneer

26.11.05
By Richard Inder

Sir Ron Brierley's Guinness Peat Group yesterday took the first steps to a takeover of Turners Auctions, buying nearly 20 per cent of the vehicle auctioneer.

Returning to the share register of the company it floated on the sharemarket in 2002 for $1.50 a share, it splashed out $11.2 million, or $2.10 a share for the stake.

Turners' shares last night closed unchanged at $1.80.

GPG executive director Tony Gibbs said the shares had been oversold since Turners warned earlier this month that full-year profits would fall to $5.4 million, from last year's $7 million.

Turners blamed higher petrol prices and a softer used car market for the profit fall. It explicitly rejected analysts' concerns that the rising tide of online sales was responsible.

Gibbs declined to give details of his plans nor say whether he planned a full takeover. Fisher Funds was the seller of the stake. Chief investment officer Warren Couillault said the fund had been considering an exit for some time.

Fisher believes competition from online trading could hurt and was worried Turners was not advancing key plans with enough haste.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

GPG takes 20per cent of vehicle auctioneer

[...]

Fisher believes competition from online trading could hurt and was worried Turners was not advancing key plans with enough haste.


Yes, this concerns me too. Turners appear to have their head in the sand as far as I can see, but maybe Mr Gibbs knows more than Ms Fisher, especially in light of the purchase price for the stake?

[shasta]

Interesting development & GPG must think the worst is behind TUA to buy Fishers stake at a healthy premium.

[Gryffyn]

Another buyer lined up?

[shasta]

Gryffyn, can you tell me what % GPG now owns of TUA, it would seem strange buying back what they spun off unless they were likely to sell on to some private equity firm.

Unusual play surely, and i see on the NZO thread talk of GPG buying back in, what is going on here, this is not the normal GPG style!

[Gryffyn]

More control to allow them to change/sort direction?

Will check on %

Maybe BaseT can comment?

[shasta]

On checking SSH notices i presume just 20% but plenty of articles stating it's the start of a takeover. I'd imagine $2.10 would mop up alot of shares for those wanting a quick profit, but not for those who brought > $3.

Disc: GPG, Nil TUA but watching!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

On checking SSH notices i presume just 20% but plenty of articles stating it's the start of a takeover. I'd imagine $2.10 would mop up alot of shares for those wanting a quick profit, but not for those who brought > $3.
Disc: GPG, Nil TUA but watching!


(Regarding TUA) I reckon Mr Gibbs knows more than we do, and more than Fisher does.

The trouble that GPG has in such a small market is as soon as they make a move, the bandwagon starts up.

Although I am light on detail as to why TUA are worth a look at the moment, GPG have done well to pick up their parcel from an existing holder.

Anybody know what Fisher bought in at?? ;)

Disc: GPG

[coge]

One big difference here is that GPG are more hands-on with their investments, they like to get appointed to the board. As far as I'm aware Fisher takes a more passive approach.

As far as Mr Gibbs knowing more than the rest of us, he was around long before TUA was floated off T&G. GPG will be aware of potential synergies, through their UK investments in Nationwide repair etc.
The vehicle industry is something of a specialty for them.

Anyway, good to see them making moves in NZ again.

[winner69]

Capral doesn't seem to be working for GPG does it ... and noticing how excited you have been about CAA on another thread the current 140 shareorice must be pissing you off a lot

Considering what GPG have pumped into CAA this TUA thing is petty cash

[zac]

Could it be that Fisher funds were exercising a put option given in return for them taking 20% of the float?

[warthog]

TUA up 30 at NZ$2.10 following the announcement - GPG buying? Lowish volume (180k).

[shasta]

Watch the SSH notices closely, GPG currently have 19.43% & would have to make an annoucement to the NZX if buying on-market.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by shasta

Watch the SSH notices closely, GPG currently have 19.43% & would have to make an annoucement to the NZX if buying on-market.


Saw the SSH - thanks!

Surely they only need to file the SSH once they're done? Gibbs et al made the deal with Fisher last week but left the timing until after market close on Friday (correct me if I'm wrong please).

[shasta]

I think once you're a SSH you only need to inform the NZX if it changes by more than 1%.

And yes, the SSH is due to the annoucement after the market closed on friday.

[Gryffyn]

Herald:

Turners Auctions, was a bright spot on the market today, gaining 31c, or 17.2 percent, to 211. On Friday Guinness Peat Group bought nearly 20 percent of the company from Fisher Funds for $2.10 a share.

GPG has a long history with Turners, and sold a 19.9 percent stake in the company in November 2003, for $22.8 million or $4.30 a share.

"That stock has been extremely weak in recent months with some profit downgrades, but ... GPG has a large investor following and a lot of the retail investors are buying in believing 'if it's good enough for GPG, it's got to be good enough for me'," Mr Williamson said.

[gulf]

GPG must be getting to the good value stage with a play on Coats and a weakening of the NZ$

[Gryffyn]

What about the US banks' calls to drop the NZ$? I sold down about 10% of my holding a few weeks back for some cash for other projects but will persevere with the rest for now.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by cujodog


quote:Originally posted by gulf

GPG must be getting to the good value stage with a play on Coats and a weakening of the NZ$


The NZ $ looks like it will be years before it weakens.

If you were moving significant amounts of capital around, taking advantage of short-term interest-rates while you parked your cash, and the NZ economy started to tank and interest rates started a downward drift, what would you do?

The NZ central bank base rate might be very high internationally but it won't take much for the speculative money to wash out as quickly as it washed in ...

[gulf]

The currency has gone up on an escalator it will come down in a lift.

[Tumbleweed]

there's meant to be a reserve bank anouncement tomorrow. interest rates looking to go higher yet. im guessing alot of people will take this opportunity to park their money overseas.

id hope to see GPG go alot lower before I get in. this market has to correct at some point

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Tumbleweed

there's meant to be a reserve bank anouncement tomorrow. interest rates looking to go higher yet. im guessing alot of people will take this opportunity to park their money overseas.

id hope to see GPG go alot lower before I get in. this market has to correct at some point


GPG has significant assets in non-NZD currencies.

Many investors will be seeking a simple way to hedge against or benefit from a fall in the NZD, but donot wish to lose on the spread both ways or deal with overseas equities/brokers/etc.

GPG represents an excellent way of increasing an investor's exposure to non-NDZ currencies, while retaining the liquidity of being able to sell locally. AMP's WIN is another way, although that avenue is skewed twoards USD assets so if you are not a great fan of the USD at the moment, think again.

disc: GPG

[coge]

Warthog is correct here. There will be short term weakness as some bail from GPG to take advantage of the high dollar to buy directly offshore. Overall most GPG holders are long term, so it should all be self correcting in short order. Bollard needs to go easy on the rates.

My two cents ;)

[gulf]

I agree with your comments.

[I.T.Ancient]

Actually there are many choices available: BIT, TCL, FCx, JFJ, TEM and their ilk. RPL, TEN, SMM, TPC, PRG, NPX, etc. It's a question of choose your currency and what sort of risk you are comfortable with. There are safer currency plays than GPG, but then it is far from the worst.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by I.T.Ancient

Actually there are many choices available: BIT, TCL, FCx, JFJ, TEM and their ilk. RPL, TEN, SMM, TPC, PRG, NPX, etc. It's a question of choose your currency and what sort of risk you are comfortable with. There are safer currency plays than GPG, but then it is far from the worst.


This is true.

However, for some, GPG in itself represents a sound investment given the businesses in the current portfolio, and the pile of cash (mostly in GBP) it is sitting on. Coates is a significant play, though, even for GPG.

NPX in contrast, is closely aligned with the sector it operates within. If the sector tanks, what then?

disc: GPG, NPX.

[Gryffyn]

Agree with the smelly one.

Disc: GPG

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by coge

There will be short term weakness as some bail from GPG to take advantage of the high dollar to buy directly offshore. Overall most GPG holders are long term, so it should all be self correcting in short order. Bollard needs to go easy on the rates.


Interestingly, if you buy GPG in NZ with NZ$, you can ask the register to shunt them to the UK where you can sell them for GPB.

Not a bad way to move capital into pounds if you wanted to "buy directly" in the UK, or perhaps of more use if you were moving there and wanted to take the banks out of the equation (check the spreads vs. the brokerage).

But as with most seemingly easy things, there's a catch. Not a show-stopper, but a hassle. The NZ side of the shunting takes a matter of minutes, but the UK end can take weeks. Same register, just different operational cultures ;)

[Base Trader]

The currency will crack. However, the strength of panic is a good sign. Now lets just hope that flows through to housing inflation and lending. This is the critical factor - until this slows and reverses the yield play will remain in force.

However, you would have to be an right Charlie to believe that your house will be worth more in the next 3-5 years than it is now so you would think some of the air should begin to be released as the Greater Fool Theory breaks down. You can hardly justify buing a house on rent vs mortgage costs can you.

I expect something structural to occur with regard to property investment as privately the Govt must be fuming that this "longer for stronger" cycle peak has ended up the way of all the others.

NZ need infrastucture spending and business capital equipment and process investment - not more blocks of fouses/flats etc. Hence, a structure that supports this style of investment.

[Base Trader]

NZD has just been caned 1.7% in 1 hours furious selling in London morning trade.

Structurally this changes nothing but it does show the volatility the Kiwi suffers and what can happen if the investing community takes flight.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

The currency will crack. However, the strength of panic is a good sign. Now lets just hope that flows through to housing inflation and lending. This is the critical factor - until this slows and reverses the yield play will remain in force.

However, you would have to be an right Charlie to believe that your house will be worth more in the next 3-5 years than it is now so you would think some of the air should begin to be released as the Greater Fool Theory breaks down. You can hardly justify buing a house on rent vs mortgage costs can you.

I expect something structural to occur with regard to property investment as privately the Govt must be fuming that this "longer for stronger" cycle peak has ended up the way of all the others.

NZ need infrastucture spending and business capital equipment and process investment - not more blocks of fouses/flats etc. Hence, a structure that supports this style of investment.


BT - would you go as far as cap gains tax on non occupier residential sales?

That may be too harsh but until the playing field is leveled Kiwis will always believe in spec housing as they way to make money and save on taxes - often erroneously I know.

[Base Trader]

Absolutely. A 20% CGT on non-occupied residence is probably the only available and effective means to control the house price inflation in NZ through a cycle. Interest rates do not do it and arguably only harm NZ business and exporters. NZ has no real means to control/regulate fixed rate borrowing.

Think about it - NZ's largest issues at present is very low immigration with particular concern over a "brain drain", falling (and probably negative) production growth (i.e. read business investment and capex) and increasing household debt levels. The household debt is providing the conduit for the increasing capital account rather than business investment. Investment in business is a far better solution over the longer term to manage these issues.

It makes no sense for the allowance of negative gearing, which provides for a tax break in cashflow for the current period in rental losses with the eventual capital gain exempt. The taxpayer subsidises this business. This encourages investors to over-leverage to avoid tax on rents and take capital gains free profits. This is not a healthy cycle.

Almost every other country in the OECD has a CGT regime that extends to investment property. It allows a better balance between ongoing cash flow considerations and eventual divestment considerations – hence, a stronger model for an asset class management. It is only one change and not the silver bullet – but a move in the right direction.

You do not hear many of the economists preaching this gospel, however, most are working for Banks and they benefit from the over-leverage.

If I was in this Government I would look to introduce in two years from now. NZ house price inflation should be flat to negative at the time and as a result the tax will have less impact except to depress the house prices for longer in one market segment.

However, lets face it – when the baby boomers begin to cash out as there is a requirement for retirement cashflow this asset class will be in all sorts of trouble unless action is taken in the near future to improve the fundamental business of NZ so that rental yields can support the asset values. This will require net positive population growth and sound levels of wealth from productivity growth (which requires business investment).

[CJ]

CGT is to difficult in NZ. Most taxpayers dont fill in tax returns. A whole sale change is needed, not something specific to houseing. they could harden up the deeming rules a bit more but these would ahve to come in at marginal rates (39% is a bit harsh).

My suggestion would be a flat rate of 20% on income and capital gains (and GST?)(simple and fair - considering NZ is one of a few countries without CGT, it is amazing we have held of this long).

Housing could be attacked by changes to depreciation rates, or not allowing use of losses for non cash expenditure, or limit interest deductions to the assets they apply to (ie. another limit to negative gearing and getting tax back on salary income).

[Base Trader]

Yes probably the change in claimable items is a better approach for housing specifically.

I find it hard to believe that most taxpayers do not fill in a tax return (I complete 3 every year now). Probably evidence of the lack of savings and investment from NZers as a whole though.

I do not see why CGT would need to be at the marginal rate. CGT in Australia and UK is not.

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader
I find it hard to believe that most taxpayers do not fill in a tax return (I complete 3 every year now). Probably evidence of the lack of savings and investment from NZers as a whole though. If you only have salary and wages, interest income and dividend income, no need to file out tax return. It maybe beneficial to but not required. You only need to file a return if:

Are self-employed
Had income from a business or rentals
Received income that is not taxed at source
Received overseas income.
Have student loan - I think.

Some also get a personal summary.


quote:Originally posted by Base TraderI do not see why CGT would need to be at the marginal rate. CGT in Australia and UK is not.
This point was in relation to deeming "capital" type gains as income as is currently done with traders etc as a way of catching rather than introducing a specific CGT regime.

[Base Trader]

Well I learn something new everyday. I guess my personal position has blinded me to the blissful existance of those who do not have to have the Revenue Reeper(s) at their doorstep each year. I hate tax returns.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

Absolutely. A 20% CGT on non-occupied residence is probably the only available and effective means to control the house price inflation in NZ through a cycle. Interest rates do not do it and arguably only harm NZ business and exporters. NZ has no real means to control/regulate fixed rate borrowing.

I note that in the UK, floating ("variable rate") mortgages are much more popular than in NZ. I know, because I had one (a UK variable-rate mortgage, at a very reasonable discounted rate, but I digress). The reason is simply that the fixed-rate package offered by the banks in NZ is far more competitive than the variable (NZ: "floating") rate package. One of the big banks in NZ told me that this is because the margin they make on floating mortgages is far higher.

The result is that Kiwis fix their mortgages more often that not, partly because they remember (or somebody they know remembers) the rates of the 1980s and therefore they prefer the insurance factor, but also because it's a more competitive product. Then when the RB lift interest rates, most mortgage-holders in NZ shrug their shoulders and go for longer holidays as the kiwi$ appreciates.

Conversely, the UK market is much more sensitive to fluctuations in the BOE base-rate (rate of lending, set by the Bank of England), which makes it a more effective monetary policy tool, albeit a rather blunt one.

So maybe it's time for the NZ government to look at putting pressure on the banks to offer more competitive variable rate mortgages? If the difference between fixed and floating mortgage packages were reversed, it might make people think more about taking on risk or simply staying out of the market altogether.

[CJ]

And in the US they fix for 30 years!!!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by CJ

And in the US they fix for 30 years!!!


Apparently (no sources, so FWIW) around 50% of Americans have never moved more than 50 miles from where they were born.

Then again, plenty of North Islanders have never been to the South Island (and vice-versa I guess).

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by Base Trader

Well I learn something new everyday. I guess my personal position has blinded me to the blissful existance of those who do not have to have the Revenue Reeper(s) at their doorstep each year. I hate tax returns.




Unless the magic word "refund" is involved :-)

[Gryffyn]

Good discussion on CGT too lads.

[gulf]

Back on the TUA subject it seems with interest rates,the economy slowing etc etc that it will be hard for GPG to get their stated returns on investments of 30% or whatever from TUA.I would have thought money in the bank may have been a better option at this stage.

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

ok believe it or not i thinking of sinking a good sum of money into GPG on the ASX, This may be a dumb question but are the returns much the same as gpg nzx but in aus dollars, do they still do the 1 for 10 issue? i guess so.


You don't work for Merrill Lynch do you AA?
------------------------
GPG
15/12/2005
SSHO

REL: 0835 HRS Guinness Peat Group Plc

SSHO: GPG: Substantial Shareholder Notification

GUINNESS PEAT GROUP PLC
ANNOUNCEMENT

Guinness Peat Group plc ("GPG" or "the Company") announces that, in
accordance with their obligations under Section 198 of the UK Companies Act
1985, Merrill Lynch have advised the Company that they have increased their
holding of GPG's ordinary shares to 41,135,333 being 4.2% of the Company's
issued share capital.

In accordance with the Listing Rules governing the London Stock Exchange this
notification has been announced in London and is being copied to ASX and NZX,
where GPG's shares are also listed.

Richard Russell
Company Secretary
14 December 2005
End CA:00125277 For:GPG Type:SSHO Time:2005-12-15:08:35:23

[shasta]

After the article in todays Dominion, does any one know the true extent of GPG's holding in NZX?

I know of 2.43% but through a subsidiary may have just under 5%?

[Gryffyn]

MLs increase is a good sign.

[lambton]

GPG was reported yesterday as buying (again) heavily into turn-around Bluestone Tin. Hope this is not the beginning of turning them into a [u]tin</u> pot company. Ha ha ha.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by lambton

GPG was reported yesterday as buying (again) heavily into turn-around Bluestone Tin. Hope this is not the beginning of turning them into a [u]tin</u> pot company. Ha ha ha.


Bought at 14 cents (from the underwriter of thr recent rights issue?) and now 20.5 cents

Should put a rocket under the the GPG shareprice today!