View Full Version : FINDI (FND) Indian ATM and Fintech business
Here's one to look at over the weekend.. ill start it off:
FINDI mission (the story): Build a new digital India, by enabling financial inclusiveness for the underbanked.
FINDI is a micro-cap listed on the ASX under ticker FND and derives 100% of its income from majority owned and controlled TSI India (in the process of rebranding to Findi). FINDI could be the only 100% pure play Indian economy linked investment via the ASX. Current market cap is under $40m. FINDI is split into two divisions. The first and dominant is the deployment and management of ATMs. FINDI manage 20,500 ATMs currently. Each ATM generates $65k+ in cumulative FCFs (free cash flow) over the ATMs life (12 years). Initial capex per ATM is $12.2k which is paid back by the 3rd year. After the 3rd year the ATM is a highly profitable FCF generator. The IRR (internal rate of return) is a healthy 35%.
FINDI recently won two large contracts to deliver and manage brown label ATMs for State Bank of India (SBI) which goes out to 2033+ and Central Bank of India (CBI) (not to be confused with the reserve bank of India) to 2029+. These contracts guarantee strong revenues (assuming customers keep transacting via the ATMs) for the medium term. This lowers the risk of the investment in my eyes. Other contracts with large banks in India include, Punjab National Bank, HDFC Bank and Tamilnad Mercantile Bank.
The second division is FindiPay. This division is the most exciting and currently accounts for about 10% of the business revenue. FindiPay has a tall mountain to climb for success but if it gains traction, it could be a game changer and multi-bagger opportunity for investors. Currently FindiPay is offered through 18,000 merchants as at 30 Nov 2023 and is on track to reach 25,000+ by 30 June 2024. The merchant, who is based in rural or semi-rural India (est 300m-400m end customers), offers the opportunity for the end customer to make digital payments through the FindiPay platform. These merchants often have the only reliable internet and tech-knowhow for the immediate community whom only use cash. Some merchants are being branded with FindiPay like Tiptop or Coke will put their branding on a dairy in NZ. FINDI’s ultimate goal is to have the FindiPay platform on the end customers mobile, this is a 3year+ target their 600+ Indian based staff are working towards.
FINDI have applied to the reserve bank of India for a white label ATM licence. Management have said if this is granted it will open up huge opportunities for FINDI. The licence was expected by the end of 2023 however no announcement was made advising of this. If a licence is granted FINDI will be able to put their white label ATMs in FINDI-Pay branded merchant stores creating a unique ecosystem. (The white label licence announcement should drive material share price appreciation.)
As an example, customers will be able to withdraw cash from their ATMs and then use the cash for a digital payment of bills with the merchant. This builds a circular ecosystem and bridges the divide between the cash economy and the digital economy. FINDI are also able to clip the ticket in both channels.
FindiPay services:
Financial services- Bill payments, credit card payments
Banking services – Domestic money transfer, Aadhaar enabled payment services (this is like a credit card but without the card), Indo-Nepal money transfers.
Cash drop at merchant locations
Other services including prepaid recharge, rail and air travel, premium payments.
Valuation time….
Market cap today is $37.23m.
Options (FNDOB): there are 18.2m options which expire on 17/01/2024 with an exercise price of 90 cents. Assuming all options are exercised the new market cap will be:
Current shares= 37.9m
Add converted options= 18.2m
Total shares= 56.1m
New market cap = $0.98 sp x 56.1m shares on issue = $54.9m market cap.
Valuation 1:
On 15th of November TSI India raised $37m via a debenture that pays an 8% coupon. The debenture will compulsory convert to 16.7% equity at an intended IPO on the Bombay stock exchange. The debentures are held by Piramal Structured Credit Opportunities Fund which is 75% owned by one of Canda’s largest pension funds (guru valuers..).
The value of TSI India was set at $153m or 9x FY23 EBITDA of $16.8m which seems about right as these businesses seem to be valued at about 8x EBITDA multiples.
FINDI own 90% of TSI India or $137.7m of the $153m valuation. YES that means FINDIs holding in TSI is worth 2.5x todays market cap of $54.9m (assumes all options are exercised).
FINDI does have an option to buy back this debenture at an 18% IRR.
Valuation 2:
On 29th November 2023 1H24 results were announced.
Revenue $31.7m during the half up 30% on pcp.
EBITDA $12.6m up 84% on pcp.
NPAT of $1.1m up from $0.2m pcp
FY24 guidance:
Revenue $67.3m
EBITDA $23.6m
Operating cash flows of $20.6m
Based on the FY24 guidance and established EBITDA multiple of 8-9x. We get $23.6x 8.5= $200.6m FINDI valuation or 3.6x current market cap of $54.9m.
Valuation 3
Management are targeting a listing of TSI on the Bombay stock exchange in 3+ years time with a target market cap of $500m. Assuming the Indian management team hit their targets they will have a 20% shareholder, Piramal will have 16.7% leaving FINDI with 63.3%. 63.7% of $500m = $316.5m or 5.7x current market cap.
Other valuations:
Trading 0.82x FY24 revenue guidance of $67.3m
Trading 2.7x FY24 operating cash flows guidance (this includes lease costs)
Trading 2.3x FY24 ebitda guidance
Net debt as of 29 Nov 2023 was $21m comprised of $37m of cash reserves and $58.1m of gross corporate debt. Assuming all options are exercised on the 17th of Jan it will add $16.38m cash bringing net debt down to $4.62m. It has been stated that the cash will be used for acquisitions in the ATM space and further business development.
The investment for me has little downside risk but huge upside. It’s not often you can invest in a profitable business with a strong balance sheet that is developing an exciting fintech business operating in one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The current SP is being depressed by the upcoming option exercise date. The SP did reach $1.30 before being sold down to narrow the gap to the option exercise price of $0.90. People could have been selling the head shares to fund the options exercise price. I am guessing that once the options are converted and bedded in and we get an announcement of the white label ATM licence being granted the SP could materially appreciate, possibly towards the $2 mark.
Disc i have 10% of my portfolio invested in these. DYOR
JBmurc
06-01-2024, 11:02 PM
Yes, an interesting one to keep an eye ... on not much of a fin-tech investor..but number are numbers and they could well be impressive going forward for FND
"Findi is moving away from reliance on ATM Contracts with major Indian banks, to becoming a White Label ATM operator and we are also in the process of growing our business by seeking to increase the breadth of our services to become a full digital payments bank through obtaining further Indian government registrations under the new financial regulations being offered."
silverblizzard888
07-01-2024, 12:37 AM
Good summary, no matter how you look at it the stock is very undervalued for its growing financials. I'm a huge fan of the stock and believe its got tremendous value to be unlocked particularly given its consider one of the big players in the ATM industry in India. India's going to be a super wealth nation going forward so its a good way to gain exposure to its growing economy. When their white label license comes through it should help unlock further potential to explore an underserved population that doesn't have immediate access to ATMs, currently they are handicapped by only being able to operate ATMs within their ATM contracts. They are also future proofing themselves with Findipay.
The stock price is held back by the large amount of options that will expire soon. The white label license being issued or an acquisition announcement should get the share price moving. Theres also potentially a dividend of 30% of NPAT if they decide they have the cash to spare. A good sign they have reached a point where they can begin to grow their profits and share the spoils with their shareholders. Its just a matter of holding and waiting while they do their thing.
DarkHorse
09-01-2024, 09:28 PM
Nice analysis Rawz. I have modest holding. The November $37m sophisticated fund investment both underscores their potential and significantly derisked them - debt and potential dilution kept me on the sideline prior to that.
Of course in most countries ATMs are dying business, but the Indian market is very different. This video presentation by the Chairman is worth watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0uEgqIf6jw (if the link doesn't work, google "youtube webinar sharecafe fnd")
Nice analysis Rawz. I have modest holding. The November $37m sophisticated fund investment both underscores their potential and significantly derisked them - debt and potential dilution kept me on the sideline prior to that.
Of course in most countries ATMs are dying business, but the Indian market is very different. This video presentation by the Chairman is worth watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0uEgqIf6jw (if the link doesn't work, google "youtube webinar sharecafe fnd")
Thats is a good presentation. Nicholas Smedley talks well. He seemed reasonably confident in winning more ATM contracts. In the presentation he mentions that they are quoting for blocks of 2000-3000 ATMs. Historically (as per CBI ATM contract) 2,550 ATMs generated additional revenue of $27m p.a. and $12m EBITDA p.a. So its meaningful growth on FY24 guidance of $67m revenue and $23m EBITDA if they win even one of the tenders. And again if the white label licence is granted by the Indian reserve bank then this year could be very exciting for us shareholders.
Its worth noting that the 3 directors are also confident shareholders. They put their money where their mouth is by buying shares at every opportunity- unlike a lot of directors that often hold zero shares even though they have sat on the board for multiple years.. directors buying with money out of their pockets is a big vote of confidence.
18/10/2022
- $2.8m cap raise.
- directors subscribed for $550,000
06/03/2023
- $2.3m cap raise
- directors subscribed for $200,000
19/12/2023
- 1,087,000 options exercised by the directors
- $978,300 consideration
BTW- i dont normally like talking about EBITDA.. prefer NPAT.. but EBITDA is one to watch with FND. From what i can tell the ATMs are being depreciated over max 6 years but have a useful life of around 12 years. Ive watched a couple of youtube videos on ATM businesses and the upkeep is very minimal. Its basically 99% cost upfront and then once you depreciate it everything drops to the bottom line with what seems to be no more capex required.
Last day to exercise the options. will be interesting to see the final count.
am sure cash, and thus atms, play a different role in india than in the rest of the world.
worth recalling ATMs going the way of the dodo at a rapid clip here and in australia
https://www.auspaynet.com.au/resources/device-statistics
am sure cash, and thus atms, play a different role in india than in the rest of the world.
worth recalling ATMs going the way of the dodo at a rapid clip here and in australia
https://www.auspaynet.com.au/resources/device-statistics
Yes its certainly a sunset industry in the west. FND take great effort to ensure every investor presentation talks to how different the Indian economy is (especially in the rural- semi rural) with cash use still growing double digits. Its a cultural thing as well to use cash from what i can gather.
An issue to keep an eye on but possibly nothing to worry about for the next 10 years (i believe Smedley said that in one of his many interviews)
Sideshow Bob
19-01-2024, 12:13 PM
Agree with Rawz, have to be aware of the wider global macro trends for sure, but that Indian market is very different and even if some sectors/demographic groups do change there is a large portion of the population that will be reliant on cash for the near future.
Very modestly valued currently with plenty of upside. Only 40.7m shares on issue currently (which will change with the options), so today with a market cap of about $40m AUD.
Agree with Rawz, have to be aware of the wider global macro trends for sure, but that Indian market is very different and even if some sectors/demographic groups do change there is a large portion of the population that will be reliant on cash for the near future.
Very modestly valued currently with plenty of upside. Only 40.7m shares on issue currently (which will change with the options), so today with a market cap of about $40m AUD.
Market cap of $40m and FY24 guidance of $23.6m EBITDA. FND has to be the most undervalued stock in Australia.
Not only is the market cap completely off the current fundamentals it has priced in zero upside. So as more people become aware of FND current investors will see this fairly valued and then multiple expansion. The double engine dream
Sideshow Bob
19-01-2024, 02:25 PM
Market cap of $40m and FY24 guidance of $23.6m EBITDA. FND has to be the most undervalued stock in Australia.
Not only is the market cap completely off the current fundamentals it has priced in zero upside. So as more people become aware of FND current investors will see this fairly valued and then multiple expansion. The double engine dream
Well I did say "very modest"! :p Maybe I should have said "really very very modest.....".
The share price does move around a bit through the day, so always a good chance for a small top-up for a few cents less.
Well I did say "very modest"! :p Maybe I should have said "really very very modest.....".
The share price does move around a bit through the day, so always a good chance for a small top-up for a few cents less.
So cheap im thinking- is this too good to be true??
No doubt a few punters exercised options for a quick gain. SP could be under pressure for a bit.
Yes its certainly a sunset industry in the west. FND take great effort to ensure every investor presentation talks to how different the Indian economy is (especially in the rural- semi rural) with cash use still growing double digits. Its a cultural thing as well to use cash from what i can gather.
An issue to keep an eye on but possibly nothing to worry about for the next 10 years (i believe Smedley said that in one of his many interviews)
I only posted those auspay stats as I was looking at them re SMP and thought oh yeah, FINDI
Not surprised to hear the indian economy is much cash based
Big move up today, much to my surprise. I always thought post the options being exercised the SP would be under pressure for a few weeks.
Another good day. And still very cheap. SP should be up towards $3 mark. Refer to my first post on this thread for valuations
Sideshow Bob
24-01-2024, 04:40 PM
Amazing how it moves 20%+ in two days......
Amazing how it moves 20%+ in two days......
Yes. Could be market just catching on to how undervalued it is? Or white label Licence or new contract has been granted and leaked? I don’t know but am happy lol
silverblizzard888
25-01-2024, 03:39 AM
Good to finally have the overhang from the options out of the way and the only way anyone gets in the stock is buying the actual stock. The volume traded is much higher than when the options were still active, so it seems a lot of buyers waited till the options expired before getting in.
percy
25-01-2024, 11:24 AM
Findi gets a mention.
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vukuyhd-yupddjlly-b/
Sideshow Bob
25-01-2024, 02:34 PM
Another good day. And still very cheap. SP should be up towards $3 mark. Refer to my first post on this thread for valuations
You must be having another good day Rawz.....
$1.30. :p
You must be having another good day Rawz.....
$1.30. :p
Sometimes I get the odd one right lol
I’m no TA guru but it’s broken recent high on large volume which I believe is very good sign.
silverblizzard888
27-01-2024, 10:42 PM
Banyantree investment group doing this best to put the word out about Findi being their top 3 Indian investments this week, all over different Australian media sites. Next week could be interesting if many investors start hopping on.
Sideshow Bob
29-01-2024, 12:44 PM
Banyantree investment group doing this best to put the word out about Findi being their top 3 Indian investments this week, all over different Australian media sites. Next week could be interesting if many investors start hopping on.
Another 5% this morning, trading over $1.40 but currently just under.
Up, up and away......!!
Sideshow Bob
29-01-2024, 01:52 PM
$1.53. Rawz must be on holiday today.....either that or he's fainted! :p
:drool::drool::drool::drool::drool:
percy
29-01-2024, 03:46 PM
:drool::drool::drool::drool::drool:
Well done.
Thought I would update some valuation scenarios as the stock is up 57% since my original posting. Just to show there is still plenty of meat on the bone for a feed- imo.
I did buy more today at $1.50 per share.
FND market cap today is $75.6m
Total shares on issue: 48,801,290
FND subsidiary TSI India was valued at $153m on 15th November by Piramal whom are 75% owned by the Canadians. The valuation came about by a $37m debenture placement which converts to equity at a time that TSI is floated on the Bombay stock exchange.
FND own 90% of TSI.
FNDs stake in TSI is worth: 90% x $153m= $137.7m.
FND SP needs to gain 82% to reach this $137.7 valuation.
---------------------------------
FND FY24 guidance
Revenue $67.3m
EBITDA $23.6m
Operating cash flows of $20.6m
The Piramal valuation above was based on an 8-9x FY23 EBITDA multiple.
8.5x FY24 EBITDA= $200.6m valuation.
FND SP needs to gain 165% to reach this $200.6m valuation.
---------------------------------
There are some other valuations linked to the planned listing on the Bombay stock exchange. However right now its best to just follow the EBITDA growth of majority owned TSI India (other owners are TSI senior management).
This calendar year is going to be exciting to watch. If a white label license is issued it will open up a big runway of future growth.
Additionally, late last year the chairman mentioned they were tendering for more brown label ATM contracts with other banks in India. These were for many thousand ATMs (FND currently manage 20,500).
Lastly the sleeping dragon is FINDI-Pay. The fintech part of the business that accounts for 10% of revenues currently but is growing rapidly. This is most exciting and if it gains traction will make the ATM part of the business look like a silly side hustle
Joshuatree
30-01-2024, 09:32 AM
Good to finally have the overhang from the options out of the way and the only way anyone gets in the stock is buying the actual stock. The volume traded is much higher than when the options were still active, so it seems a lot of buyers waited till the options expired before getting in.
Yes I was awaiting possible weakness with the overhang before buying,too slow.Welldone Rawz.
I wanted to buy if it broke the last $1.30 high but was too slow to move and when it hit $1.60 i thought bugger it ill just let what i have ride.
However I pondered for a couple of hours yesterday arvo and thought na its still way undervalued so bought up fairly big (for me) at $1.50 when it pulled back.
My thinking was around the downside risk and losing money on the $1.50 buy and went something like this:
- Strong balance sheet thanks to the options being exercised
- Directors all put in substantial money by exercising their options and now have big skin in the game via substantial (5%+) holdings
- The major ATM contracts go out to 2029 and 2031 so income is secure for the medium term
So I was like na the downside risk is small so its okay to have a decent punt here and top up.
Then of course the upside potential is very strong as any day now the white label license could be announced or new ATM contract could be announced or the run rate of new merchants added to the FINDI-pay platform increases..
Then there is the whole booming Indian economy thing and FINDI is one of the only ASX listed pure plays in that market. So as word gets out and the market cap gets up over $100m more funds will be keen/able to buy in.
And lastly this is why I post that update valuation last night above just to clarify in my mind that $1.50 was not crazy stupid buying.
Joshuatree
30-01-2024, 11:18 AM
All good but alot of expectation of white license approval may be built into the price rise.Its not a 100% sure bet the licence will be granted? Or it will be but timeframe my be longer*?
All good but alot of expectation of white license approval may be built into the price rise.Its not a 100% sure bet the licence will be granted? Or it will be but timeframe my be longer*?
Its possible. I'm leaning towards the side that white label is purely upside. I.e. the FY24 guidance provided is just based on current contracts. And based on FY24 guidance its cheap.
Any white label ATM rollout would fall into FY25 and beyond anyway.
Announcement just out now:
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fnd.asx-3A635352/
Findi Chairman Mr Nicholas Smedley commented: “The option conversion was strongly supported by existing shareholders and is a clear endorsement of Findi’s strategy and the results being delivered by the Board and Management Team.
“These funds, together with the funds raised from the Piramal Alternatives placement in November 2023, ensure that Findi is well capitalised and provides flexibility with respect to pursuing growth and scale through accretive acquisitions, the expansion of the FindiPay footprint and product offering and the roll-out of white label ATMs.
“Our application for a white label ATM licence remains before the Reserve Bank of India and we remain confident that the licence will be granted in the near term.”Findi has expanded rapidly in India during the past 12 months, including an acceleration ofgrowth in its merchant footprint, GTV and ATM network.
Sideshow Bob
30-01-2024, 12:14 PM
Good rationale to work through your equation again.
Also, I can't see anywhere where you've allowed for the $10.7m raised - which equates to just shy of 22c per share.
142k through in the first 10 minutes this morning......
Nice work rawz - you LEGEND!
Intraday $1.41 - $1.60. lol wow.
where it lands at close I have no idea...
Good rationale to work through your equation again.
Also, I can't see anywhere where you've allowed for the $10.7m raised - which equates to just shy of 22c per share.
142k through in the first 10 minutes this morning......
The $10m raised also issued a bunch of new shares so it essentially already gets accounted for.
I think overall the company will still have net debt right now. Only a small amount. However by end of financial year that may swing to net cash since they are going to generate $20m op cashflow in this year as per guidance.
(FCF was $12.4m at half year)
But then they have flagged on multiple occasions acquisitions in the ATM space so they intend to use the balance sheet strength which means going back into net debt.
Well with the benefit of hindsight the $1.50 big top up was a good call. But i did the work and thinking and ran though the process... so im not surprised but still, i am very happy with myself
MST Access has initiated coverage and OMG THEY HAVE SET THEIR VALUATION AT $4.31/SHARE
https://www.mstaccess.com.au/company/findi-limited you may need to create an account. Its free.
NEED TO KNOW
− Listed exposure to growing Indian fintech market
− Large ATM footprint generating significant cashflow for returns and reinvestment in digital banking services
− New funding shows potential valuation read through
Direct exposure to a global emerging market:
Findi is the only Australian listed company that provides direct access to the emerging Indian fintech market, which services 1.4 bn people (~25% remain unbanked) and remains heavily dependent on cash transactions. Findi’s strong ATM network is highly cash generative and supports its digital services growth, diversifying the business.
Key partnerships with major market players:
Findi’s 20.5k ATM network isunderpinned by two highly significant agreements – with the State Bank of India and the Central Bank of India. 80% of Findi’s revenue base is contracted, withthe average contract length almost 5 years, aiding earnings certainty.
Recent funding agreement:
Findi’s 100% owned Indian subsidiary, TSI India, raised A$37.6m via Compulsory Convertible Debentures (CCDs) from leading Indian investment group, Piramal Alternatives (owned by Canada’s largest pension fund, CDPQ). Upon an expected TSI IPO, the CCDs will convert to ~16.7% of equity, implying a total market cap for TSI India of ~A$225m.
Investment Thesis
Only Australian-listed way to gain access to Indian fintech market:
As one of the world’s largest non-bank ATM operators in a very large market, Findi services >2.7m customers daily in India across >30k locations, involving both ATMs and merchants. We expect this footprint to continue growing alongside population growth (from 1.4 bn currently), a reduction in the unbanked population (estimated at ~25% presently) and further adoption of digital payments by anincreasingly digitally literate younger generation, even while cash remains king.
Leveraging ATM stronghold to cross sell digital services:
Findi is uniquely positioned as an end-to-end provider (the only fintech provider that provides both ATMs and digital services) that can leverage its basic cash services, as a cheap customer acquisition channel, to further develop into a full-service digital banking provider. Both business segments provide significant diversification benefits.
Current earnings multiple highlights value on offer:
Recent management guidance was reaffirmed in the 1H24 result announced in November 2023(reported revenues of $31.8m and EBITDA of $12.6m). Applying a conservative market multiple of 10.5x to our FY24 EBITDA forecast results in a valuationsignificantly higher than the current share price.
Valuation
Findi’s earnings outlook underpins our valuation. We derive a valuation based on a 10-year DCF and market EBITDA multiples basis (equally weighted). Our valuation of $4.31/share is supported by our view that growth in Findi’s ATM network and services will support revenue and profitability.
percy
01-02-2024, 11:25 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02768254-3A635606
The company may not know why the share price increased.
We here all know it was because of Rawz's posts.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02768254-3A635606
The company may not know why the share price increased.
We here all know it was because of Rawz's posts.
If you read enough posts from someone who is often ‘well positioned’ you will eventually get one right and be ‘well positioned’ yourself :)
percy
05-02-2024, 10:10 AM
Stockhead this morning;
ASX-listed Indian-focused fintech Findi (ASX:FND) topped the tech winners list in January. FND announced in January it had received $10.7 million in cash and issued 11,942,609 fully paid new shares in the company, through the conversion of 11,942,609 listed options (ASX: FNDOB), each having an issue price of 90 cents/ share.
The remaining 6,289,678 listed options have expired unexercised.
“The option conversion was strongly supported by existing shareholders and is a clear endorsement of Findi’s strategy and the results being delivered by the board and management team,” says chairman Nicholas Smedley.
“These funds, together with the funds raised from the Piramal Alternatives placement in November 2023, ensure that Findi is well capitalised and provides flexibility with respect to pursuing growth and scale through accretive acquisitions, the expansion of the FindiPayfootprint and product offering and the roll-out of white label ATMs.
“Our application for a white label ATM licence remains before the Reserve Bank of India and we remain confident that the licence will be granted in the near term.”
Microcap guru investors DMX held a bunch of FND shares and options after supporting earlier cap raises. I had been waiting for their monthly update to see what they did with their options. They sold into the recent price rise to control their weightings. So sold around $1.40-$1.70 range. Not bad instant return on the options exercised at $0.90. However what ever happend to letting your winners run? DMX have a $3+ valuation on FND and noted $6 per share valuation if they were to list on the Bombay stock exchange with a $500m market cap. However they seem to see value everywhere in the micro cap space and thus trying to spread around limited funds means you take profits from outsized positions i guess. They run two funds and different commentary for both funds, below;
DMX Australian Shares Fund
Activity With the smaller company segment of the market having been so neglected in recent times, we’re looking very closely at all our portfolio exposures as we seek to direct capital to the most compelling of an expanded opportunity set. With so little cash to put to work, and so many opportunities both within the portfolio and in our pipeline of prospects, it’s a happy problem to have, but still a problem. Takeover activity has helped mitigate the problem, with Cirrus proceeds providing liquidity. We banked Shriro’s capital return in January, and have further trimmed our position here into continued subsequent price strength. Shriro remains an attractive holding for its cash generative nature and now much lower reinvestment risk profile, having returned its surplus cash to shareholders. But growth isn’t obvious and other opportunities are taking preference.
These funds have been useful as we’ve recently established two new small positions (each of which have low liquidity and we continue to seek to add to), and have continued to add to our Fiducian holding, bringing this to a fuller 4% portfolio weighting. Most meaningfully, we exercised our Findi options this month, bringing the position to a full 5% weighting which has expanded to over 8% at month-end. This sizing is a little unusual forus but we’re broadly comfortable given the value on offer even at these higher prices, and the strong operational execution & momentum the business is enjoying. We expect to trim to control sizing not too far from where it is now, but believe it’s useful to highlight as we might expect a little more than usual volatility to the fund in the event of material movements to such large positions’ stock prices in the short term.
The DMX Capital Partners report’s theme this month is the challenge many companies are facing in needing to achieve or maintain reasonable profitability in the near-term, while seeking to invest heavily for long-term growth and value creation. Three positions – all also owned by DMXASF – are highlighted with commentary included in an Appendix: Ansarada, Knosys and Careteq
DMX Capital Partners Limited
2024
It has been a busy and productive start to the year for us:
• We are pleased to have been involved in the recent re-capitalisation of two (leading one of them) interesting sub-$20m companies on what we considered to be very attractive terms, that have very high IRR potential. We look forward to discussing these unique, prospective opportunities in future updates.
• In early January, we were required to decide whether to convert our significant FND option holding at 90c. To get more confidence around this position, as part of our continuing due diligence, we have had various meetings with FND’s directors, its external accountant and other large FND shareholders. With the options convertible at 90c, and the share price having traded up to $1.70 post the conversion, we remain comfortable with our decision and our exposure here, having trimmed into the share price strength.
• We are also currently involved in progressive discussions with the directors, and other large shareholders, of several portfolio companies that we have held for some time, in relation to board composition and strategy, as we look to take a more active role in 2024 to extract shareholder value and improve investor outcomes across the portfolio, where we see the opportunity.
• We continue to review and meet with a number of prospective, unique investment opportunities.
thanks rawz
DMX are well worth watching
Sideshow Bob
12-02-2024, 04:05 PM
Bit more action today, after a bit of a breather last week....
SP has had a good run up from low $1.40s range. Maybe the likes of DMX have finished rebalancing. I think most retail investors are happy to hold to over $2 based on HC posts and my thinking (basically just pure speculation lol).
A few charting posts on HC saying all is looking good. Passing through FIBs and what not. I dont care to learn that stuff but sounds all good.
Still waiting for the white label license to be announced. must be any day now surely
Strong open. Often does. Then drifts back.
Not much on offer thou. $2 not far away i reckon.
Still cheap. But ill have to offload some soon. Maybe over $2.20. Just talking out loud
Jeepers might do $2 today
Market cap $93m. Might land on a few more desks once it pops over $100m. Then more demand for SP.
Wonder where the white label license is at. And wonder what the SP reaction will be if/when its granted.
Also would love an update on the Findi-pay merchant numbers.
Market cap of $40m and FY24 guidance of $23.6m EBITDA. FND has to be the most undervalued stock in Australia.
Not only is the market cap completely off the current fundamentals it has priced in zero upside. So as more people become aware of FND current investors will see this fairly valued and then multiple expansion. The double engine dream
Post this 30 days ago. Market becoming more and more aware. Double engine dream coming to fruition
Jeepers might do $2 today
2 bucks and change
2 bucks and change
$100m market cap. Aggressive buying and a $700k buy order put in at $2 just before close… didn’t get hit.
Maybe big boys take over now.
Sideshow Bob
21-02-2024, 08:20 AM
2 bucks and change
Well done Rawz. :t_up:
Double win too getting out of HCL early.
Well done Rawz. :t_up:
Double win too getting out of HCL early.
That was just pure luck. I was quite bullish on it. Ive mentally noted HCL as a loss and made some notes about it in the Rawz book of f-ups (which has many pages lol)
That was just pure luck. I was quite bullish on it. Ive mentally noted HCL as a loss and made some notes about it in the Rawz book of f-ups (which has many pages lol)
Good work, I’ve got one of those too.
percy
21-02-2024, 10:18 AM
Good work, I’ve got one of those too.
I am on volume 3.....lol
I am on volume 3.....lol
:lol::lol::lol:
Sideshow Bob
21-02-2024, 10:40 AM
I am on volume 3.....lol
I've got to start one of those - try to forget but most are seared in my memory......;)
I've got to start one of those - try to forget but most are seared in my memory......;)
re-reading mine gives me a bit of PTSD...."I did WHAT?!!"
Password protected too should my wife ever login to the computer and see what a numpty she married lol
re-reading mine gives me a bit of PTSD...."I did WHAT?!!"
Password protected too should my wife ever login to the computer and see what a numpty she married lol
Loooool :lol::lol::lol::lol: so good
Big jump this morning on no news..?
Sideshow Bob
29-02-2024, 01:47 PM
Big jump this morning on no news..?
Trade just gone through at $2.43.....!! :blink:
What the f........??
Has to be a speeding ticket in the mail, surely!
winner69
29-02-2024, 02:28 PM
Jeez rawz …it was only about $1 when you told me to have a punt on FND
Should have listened to you mate
Well done on your new found riches
Trade just gone through at $2.43.....!! :blink:
What the f........??
Has to be a speeding ticket in the mail, surely!
SP trading has been strange. Kept getting sold down early morning to $1.90 ish but would finish the day at $2. Did this a few days, i just thought it was tree shaking stuff or games by bigger players. I have no idea of the full extent of those games that are played,,, just know what ive read on STr and HC on different companies.
Anyways maybe the volume wasnt enough and now its been bid up to get more people to part with their shares.?
Im happy to hold for another few years while the ATM contracts are secure and see what is made of findi-pay division and white label licence (if issued). Could be $5-$6 per share all going well based on modest EBITDA growth and 8-9x multiple applied
Jeez rawz …it was only about $1 when you told me to have a punt on FND
Should have listened to you mate
Well done on your new found riches
I was unsure of myself so came to you and a couple of other wise masters to see your thoughts lol.
Lucky i backed myself.
Best thing is i told my dad after i took a position and sent through the research i did. He put some funds in and made $15k realised profit. For him thats a lot of money so im happy i was able to help the old boy out. He can buy a few pints at his local with that.
Sideshow Bob
29-02-2024, 02:42 PM
I was unsure of myself so came to you and a couple of other wise masters to see your thoughts lol.
Lucky i backed myself.
Best thing is i told my dad after i took a position and sent through the research i did. He put some funds in and made $15k realised profit. For him thats a lot of money so im happy i was able to help the old boy out. He can buy a few pints at his local with that.
Awesome.....:cool:
Trading 4.5x FY24 ebitda guidance after today’s gain.
Can trade 8-9x ebitda.
SP will go $4+ imo.
Good update today. Options priced well imo.
https://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20240301/02780070.pdf?uid=7A5E78015E56B78833FDF56ED5903945D 50F0000AE3C20593225E640093D250091850000&ppv= (https://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20240301/02780070.pdf?uid=7A5E78015E56B78833FDF56ED5903945D 50F0000AE3C20593225E640093D250091850000&ppv=)
Digital payments and financial services provider Findi Limited (ASX: FND) (Findi or the Company) is pleased to announce the appointment of Alastair Williams as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO), effective 1 March 2024.
Mr Williamsis an experienced CPA with a Masters Degree in Commerce. He has recently been the CFO of an Electricity retailer and before that was a Partner at boutique accounting and finance firm, Clarendon Partners.
In addition to day-to-day duties as CFO, Mr Williams is being tasked specifically with supporting the Board and our Indian subsidiary with listing in India.
The Company has agreed to offer Mr Williams (or his nominee) 565,000 options pursuant to an Employee Share Option Plan to be adopted by the Company. The agreed terms of the options are below:
• 120,000 unlisted options with an exercise price of $2.50 vesting 12 months from the date of appointment;
• 175,000 unlisted options with an exercise price of $3.00 vesting 24 months from the date of appointment; and
• 270,000 unlisted options with an exercise price of $3.50 vesting 36 months from the date of appointment.
Sideshow Bob
01-03-2024, 02:12 PM
His contract was probably done a week or two ago.
After recent SP action it's not actually that far to be in the money on the 1st tranche of options!! :p
His contract was probably done a week or two ago.
After recent SP action it's not actually that far to be in the money on the 1st tranche of options!! :p
I believe in incentives and so yes this guy will be doing everything he can to get the SP up up up. He'll no doubt want big % gains on his $3.50 options....
I dont think $4 is unreasonable some point later this year. Ive seen some long term valuations based on modest EBITDA growth at $6+ per share.
Some guy post on HC today that TSI India's (FNDs subsidiary) competitor AGS Transact Technologies have a EBIT loss of $11m yet have a market cap of $195m...
Vs FND market cap of $108m and EBITDA guidance of $24m
Sideshow Bob
11-03-2024, 11:43 AM
Good update on their white label ATM licenses and some positive news to start the week Rawz......
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02783164-3A638508
Good update on their white label ATM licenses and some positive news to start the week Rawz......
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02783164-3A638508
Excellent news. More so to remove any doubt punters might have had that the white label wasnt going to be issued.
I would love an update on Findi-Pay merchant numbers. Maybe later in April after we close out this quarter. Or in May for end of year prelim numbers
The importance of the white label licence...
Findi can now put an ATM in their merchant stores. So a customer can walk into a store and get cash out of the ATM (ticket clip once) and then give it to the merchant using Findi-Pay (ticket clip twice) to pay for their online stuff.
Additionally, Findi can now look at acquisitions using their strong balance sheet post the options being exercised and last years debenture issue. By all accounts the ATM industry is fragmented and consolidation is on the cards.
All good stuff and progress being made. Market cap still just a bit over $100m. Happy to hold.
Strong couple of days since white label announcement.
Once formalized by the Mumbai reserve bank I’m expecting FND to come out with another announcement providing some more colour around what this will mean for additional future income growth
she's a rocket ship to the moon :eek2:
My valuation is $4.20. Based on 8x ebitda multiple on the ATM business and 3x revenue multiple on the findi-pay business. Comes out at $4.20 lol. Musk would like that
RalphWiggum
20-03-2024, 02:02 PM
she's a rocket ship to the moon :eek2:
My valuation is $4.20. Based on 8x ebitda multiple on the ATM business and 3x revenue multiple on the findi-pay business. Comes out at $4.20 lol. Musk would like that
Hi Rawz,
Just wanted to thank you for bringing Findi to my attention a few weeks ago. Your posts lead me to buy a decent holding, on which I'm up 112% today.
Cheers mate! :cool:
Hi Rawz,
Just wanted to thank you for bringing Findi to my attention a few weeks ago. Your posts lead me to buy a decent holding, on which I'm up 112% today.
Cheers mate! :cool:
I'm so happy to hear that. Well done to us and all other holders :cool:
Sideshow Bob
20-03-2024, 02:19 PM
she's a rocket ship to the moon :eek2:
My valuation is $4.20. Based on 8x ebitda multiple on the ATM business and 3x revenue multiple on the findi-pay business. Comes out at $4.20 lol. Musk would like that
Well done Rawz and tip my hat to you. :)
I was already a holder (relatively smallish parcel) but appreciate your posts. I have to share more rep before I can give you any more!!
$3 party day today? Surely.. almost there.
Friday beers would be so much better
$3 cool :eek2::eek2::eek2:
Market cap is 3x when i made my first post and started this thread. I havnt sold anything. FND is over 50% of my portfolio now. I think my plan is once the White label is confirmed and depending on what they say in that announcement around new income i will start trimming. Im getting nervous with this size holding. Can still sleep at night but very nervous holding so much.
The problem is its not even overvalued or anything like that. Like some stocks can trade 10x revenue on nothing. Just a hope. Findi-pay could be that hope.. some stocks just explode in value on pure speculation. FOMO stuff. I feel like findi could do that and pay my mortgage for me lol
Sideshow Bob
22-03-2024, 01:14 PM
Going to be some good tasting beer tonight Rawz. Well done again! :cool:
Some of that price action is pretty crazy and can understand the sentiments with taking a bit off the table and sleeping better.
I had some of that with ATM back in the day. Bought at 67c and sold a good chunk at about $3.50 when building a house. Rest went at about $16.50 but felt the relief when sold as became a large sum......
Going to be some good tasting beer tonight Rawz. Well done again! :cool:
Some of that price action is pretty crazy and can understand the sentiments with taking a bit off the table and sleeping better.
I had some of that with ATM back in the day. Bought at 67c and sold a good chunk at about $3.50 when building a house. Rest went at about $16.50 but felt the relief when sold as became a large sum......
thats a good story and wise words.
SP back down below $3 but no worries beers still on.
I drew a few lines on a graph last night (i wont post it cause you'll all laugh at me lol) and the SP line had gone outside the trading range. I thought to myself it probably has been a little too much of late and needs to settle down and retrace for another push.
Sideshow Bob
22-03-2024, 02:25 PM
Regardless, it's Friday! Beer Emoji
Looks like drifting back to where it started the day on low volume.
No one goes broke taking a bit of profit off the table, and a few here are "well positioned" with free carry's of their (sizeable) remaining positions in similar circumstances with different companies.
I'm no chartist, but would be interesting to see what a TA expert makes of the price action. There must be a good portion of short term trading, and many days the spread between highs and lows is getting around 10%.
But the big volume days are green days - so that must mean something?? No substantial holder notices for a while though.
Sideshow Bob
02-04-2024, 06:15 PM
Solid jump today, up 10.5% today.
A positive announcement incoming??
Good to see it close above $3
Sell side looking thin
I sold 20% of my holding at $3.30 today. Thought i should disclose that since ive been very bullish on FND.
Only sold because its so much of my portfolio. I still believe it will go up past $4 on a couple of good announcements.
i.e. white label confirmed and new income will be xyz. or
new merchant numbers have increased to 5000 per month and we will generate xyz income...
winner69
04-04-2024, 03:09 PM
Well done rawz
Joshuatree
04-04-2024, 03:11 PM
Smart strategy,bank the results reduce risk,spread the love.👍
percy
04-04-2024, 03:17 PM
I sold 20% of my holding at $3.30 today. Thought i should disclose that since ive been very bullish on FND.
Only sold because its so much of my portfolio. I still believe it will go up past $4 on a couple of good announcements.
i.e. white label confirmed and new income will be xyz. or
new merchant numbers have increased to 5000 per month and we will generate xyz income...
You back yourself and now enjoying the rewards.
Well done.
Be a nice feeling to see those returns banked. Boom time, legend.
here we go, trading halt
Findi Limited (ASX: FND) (the Company) requests a trading halt in relation to the Company’s ordinary shares (FND) quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in accordance with ASX Listing Rule 17.1.The trading halt is requested pending an announcement by the Company to the market in relation to an update to the White Label ATM Licence Application in India (Purpose).
Edit add: Bit nervous its a delay or decline. SP drop would be quite big if it was a decline even thou there would be no change to guidance.
I'm optimistic its an approval and the 'update' is talking about the additional revenue/profits this license will generate for the business.
Joshuatree
11-04-2024, 01:35 PM
Sure has created uncertainty about the final approval being given.That prior announcement now feels a bit cart before the horse and premature.Holders have had a near perfect run up till now👍.
Sideshow Bob
11-04-2024, 01:55 PM
Expect the worst, hope for the best........:sleep:
If it was bad then why would you need such a long trading halt..? its not like they have provided guidance relying on the license and need time to backtrack it and recalculate?
If it was declined you would think they would say it, flush the dunny then move on.. no need to wait so long.
I wonder if it is an announcement confirming the license is granted and an acquisition at the same time? This is something they have spoken about in the past. The balance sheet is ready for it. This could be the reason for the long halt..?
Just thinking out loud. Ive got a lot riding on this lol.
Sideshow Bob
12-04-2024, 08:07 AM
I see more of the Hot Copper team reckon its positive rather than negative........some guy over there mentioned $6.50.....!!
I'm just naturally pessimistic. :scared:
I see more of the Hot Copper team reckon its positive rather than negative........some guy over there mentioned $6.50.....!!
I'm just naturally pessimistic. :scared:
$6.50!! that guy is crazy :p
Sideshow Bob
12-04-2024, 09:25 AM
$6.50!! that guy is crazy :p
Completely crazy, but hope for his sake he is right!! :t_up:
Sideshow Bob
12-04-2024, 12:31 PM
Nothing through before opening this morning.
If bad news then think they would have ripped the scab off......??
Nothing through before opening this morning.
If bad news then think they would have ripped the scab off......??
Yes you would have thought so aye.. like no need for such a long halt if its a decline. Leaning towards positive announcement.
From DMX. DMXCP_March_2024_Investor_update.pdf (mcusercontent.com) (https://mcusercontent.com/1a84be027051b31062de96622/files/9d49dada-e15c-630e-495b-305b65ac8ab3/DMXCP_March_2024_Investor_update.pdf)
Findi (ASX:FND)
FND has experienced a significant re-rate in recent months, with its share price moving from ~50c in October last year,to trade above $3 during March. When we first invested in FND in early 2022 via underwriting a capital raise, it had a market cap of less than $5m, and was seeking capital to fund the buyout of the 75% of its Indian ATM and fintech business that it didn’t currently own. At the time, the stock was very much under the radar and misunderstood, and, as a result, in our view, was fundamentally mispriced relative to its potential future earnings profile, offering significant upside.
In our December blog article we discussed the FND opportunity and our $3 valuation target: Findi - A potential multi-bagger - DMXAM. During March, FND’s market cap reached $150m, while liquidity has gone from non-existent two years ago, to $1m+ of stock trading daily over recent weeks. We have been selling into this increased liquidity over recent weeks as our price targets were met.
While our thinking around FND’s expectations and valuation hasn’t changed much from how we viewed the FNDopportunity two years ago, the passing of time has allowed new investors to get more confident with management and execution, which has been strong over the past two years. While various operational and regulatory risks remain, as highlighted in the table below, FND’s ~20% revenue growth, and operating leverage, over the past two years has led to strong growth in EBITDA from ~$6m to ~$24m. FND’s balance sheet has also strengthened and we expect FND to finish its financial year with ~$30m net cash, following the recent option conversion.
We believe FND to be a good example of what we are trying to achieve and highlights the opportunities available to usin supporting mispriced, under the radar companies with attractive fundamentals, that are currently being ignored by the market because they are too small, illiquid and out of favour to generate market interest.
The last couple of years has been a difficult environment for this strategy. Certainly, execution issues amongst some of our portfolio companies hasn’t helped, but in this risk-off environment a significant challenge has been just the lack of investor interest and liquidity to generate new buying to clear the overhang of sellers in order to drive multiple re-rates and sentiment changes amongst small stocks.
Across the portfolio, we own various other companies that share similar characteristics to FND when it was very much under the radar: profitable, very low market cap, tight illiquid share register, unloved, ignored and in-efficiently priced by the market, but with the ability to capture market interest to drive a strong re-rate at some point. In recent updates we have talked about a number of portfolio companies that have been beaten down by the market to very low EVs that now offer substantial upside on the back of improving execution and sentiment from low bases. With more supportivemarket conditions, we are hopeful of more of these types of opportunities playing out.
see DMX have calculated FND will have an amazing $30m net cash???
30 Sep 2023 they had net debt of $21m.
Options raised $10m....
So DMX saying they have generated $41m in cash this half year??? not sure how that adds up
Sideshow Bob
12-04-2024, 01:52 PM
Yes you would have thought so aye.. like no need for such a long halt if its a decline. Leaning towards positive announcement.
What's that guy saying on HC today....?? Probably saying the same thing??? :lol::rolleyes::lol:
What's that guy saying on HC today....?? Probably saying the same thing??? :lol::rolleyes::lol:
I got a trophy the other day on HC. Not sure what that means but no doubt good internet points lol….
Sideshow Bob
15-04-2024, 09:04 AM
I think this is good news.....no?? :cool: Although no announcement as yet.
https://www.afr.com/technology/payment-provider-findi-lands-licence-for-branded-atms-in-india-20240414-p5fjp2
ASX-listed payment provider Findi, backed by Wilson Asset Management and the Flannery family, is set to gain a licence enabling it to splash its name on thousands of branded ATMs across India.
The fintech junior’s stock is up 430 per cent over the past year and settled at $3.20, earning it a $168 million market cap, before it went into a trading halt on April 11. “The market is starting to understand the opportunity we have in India,” Nicholas Smedley, Findi’s chairman, said. “We have significant Australian-based funds investing in the company.”
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.254%2C$multiply_3%2C$ratio_1.5%2C$width_75 6%2C$x_22%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/c_scale%2Cw_620%2Cq_88%2Cf_auto/c3406767eae0639ac72eab46857fa84945c0046fFindi won a contract to supply the State Bank of India with over 4000 ATMs last year. Bloomberg
Late last year a pre-IPO fund of Indian tycoon Ajay Piramal’s Piramal Group invested more than $37 million in Findi’s Indian subsidiary, TSI India, via convertible securities that are designed to turn into equity in the event of a float.
People familiar with the matter said TSI India has now been granted provisional approval for the licence that will allow Findi to deploy its own branded ATMs across the economy.
The company expects to rebrand about 4000 ATMs which it already operates for the State Bank of India during the 2024-25 financial year. It owns and operates 12,000 ATMs for large financial institutions such as State Bank of India and the Central Bank of India.
The seven-year contract with State Bank of India comes with a three-year extension. The bulk of Findi’s operations are in India.
Findi said the contract will offer between $500 million and $620 million in revenue were it to last for 10 years. “Locking in significant revenue and earnings for the next 10 years means Findi is now even better placed to take advantage of India’s transition from the cash economy into the digital economy over the next decade and beyond,” Mr Smedley said.
The company also offers digital payments and banking solutions. Mr Smedley said the subsidiary has aspirations for a listing in 2025 or 2026, possibly on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
The Piramal transaction valued TSI India at $190 million and the fund has captured investment from Canadian pension funds, according to Mr Smedley. “They did significant due diligence and this is an endorsement of our strategy,” he said.
Explaining the valuation, Mr Smedley previously said “[it] was based on effectively a 10 times multiple on last year’s earnings”.
Findi was previously known as Vortiv. In 2020, Vortiv sold its cybersecurity business to CyberCX, which has won Australian government contracts.
thanks for sharing Bob. Looks promising. D Day today. If bad $2.80sp. If good $4
Sideshow Bob
15-04-2024, 11:18 AM
Ohhhhh yeahhhhhh.........
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02795323-3A640548
Good news. But why such a long halt? lol
No financial news. Bit of a fizzle imo
Oh i missed this part:
“Securing a White Label ATM licence is also a key pillar for our strategy of becoming a full Indian transaction bank, as well as positioning us to participate in the long-anticipated industry consolidation and to complete well advanced acquisitions.
Sideshow Bob
15-04-2024, 11:35 AM
Oh i missed this part:
“Securing a White Label ATM licence is also a key pillar for our strategy of becoming a full Indian transaction bank, as well as positioning us to participate in the long-anticipated industry consolidation and to complete well advanced acquisitions.
Another (great) step down the road.....but yeah, why did that need a trading halt, especially for a couple of days?? Unless was leaky - AFR article published before the announcement so it might have been out.
SP down on ho-hum announcement.
Halt too long for nothing burger.
Shame.
Sideshow Bob
15-04-2024, 12:23 PM
SP down on ho-hum announcement.
Halt too long for nothing burger.
Shame.
Probably white label ATM license already baked into the share price.
But a fizzer......
Probably white label ATM license already baked into the share price.
But a fizzer......
Yeah. Must wait for FY results next month. No doubt more detail in there
Sideshow Bob
15-04-2024, 12:27 PM
Yeah. Must wait for FY results next month. No doubt more detail in there
Last year about the 15th of May. So a month to wait for more. :sleep:
Sideshow Bob
15-04-2024, 04:26 PM
The markets a funny beast sometimes......
Confirmation of another step, confirmation of their direction of travel and down 4.7%. ;)
The markets a funny beast sometimes......
Confirmation of another step, confirmation of their direction of travel and down 4.7%. ;)
Market saying your announcement was avg.. lol. And I agree. Too much build up with the long halt and not enough financial info.
All good. The white label pretty much guarantees the medium term growth on top of the secure revenue coming from the contracts. So still a happy holder
Oh dear. Talk about a reversal of sentiment. Going to be choppy waters until next update
Sideshow Bob
16-04-2024, 03:49 PM
Oh dear. Talk about a reversal of sentiment. Going to be choppy waters until next update
Hmmmm yes just login in and surprised to see a hole torpedoed in my portfolio!
Down 16% at the moment - the market giveth, the market take it away.....
Agree, looks like short term will be choppy, nothing changed longer term. Need to hold on tight until the FY report in roughly a months time.
Hmmmm yes just login in and surprised to see a hole torpedoed in my portfolio!
Down 16% at the moment - the market giveth, the market take it away.....
Agree, looks like short term will be choppy, nothing changed longer term. Need to hold on tight until the FY report in roughly a months time.
A good opportunity for some to top up if they previously missed out. SP slowly crawling its way back. Not so bad now lol. Who knows where it lands.
Sideshow Bob
16-04-2024, 09:23 PM
A good opportunity for some to top up if they previously missed out. SP slowly crawling its way back. Not so bad now lol. Who knows where it lands.
Crazy day…..opens at $3.12, peaks at $3.14, hits $2.38 and closes at $2.71 with about 1m or 2% of the company traded - about 4x the average.
Exactly Rawz…….who knows!!
silverblizzard888
16-04-2024, 09:36 PM
A lot of it was priced into the stock, but the announcement was a delay since it comes with a condition that could take up to 6 months to fulfill, which for most don't want to wait. However at the end it does provide a solid outcome that they will get the license.
"Granting of the White Label ATM licence .. is only subject to ..submitting System Audit Report (SAR) within six months to obtain final authorisation for roll-out of WLA."
They have mismanaged the communication around the white label licence. Said it is going to be issued by Christmas last year, then by end of financial year. Got both of those wrong.
When it was approved by the reserve bank and just needed to be signed off by the Mumbai bank it was “imminent”.
Then they say it’s approved but actually na one more hurdle to jump. Lol..
Just feels a bit panicky. Smeadley and co need to relax and not rush things. Let the process work itself out and just concentrate on winning new ATM contracts and rolling out Findi pay. If they do that the rest will fall into place.
My expectation is come May we see what a cash cow FND is in the FY announcement. Then later in the calendar year we see an acquisition once the white label Licence is 100% confirmed. Throw in an ATM contract or 2 and the SP will do really well.
Sideshow Bob
17-04-2024, 09:00 AM
Working with regulatory/bureaucratic channels in most countries is not straightforward or predictable in terms of timelines. Especially if a company is from another country.
Needs to be accurate with their communication, err on the conservative with their announcements and show some patience.
Working with regulatory/bureaucratic channels in most countries is not straightforward or predictable in terms of timelines. Especially if a company is from another country.
Needs to be accurate with their communication, err on the conservative with their announcements and show some patience.
100% agree
winner69
22-04-2024, 12:38 PM
Deleted ..
About yWrong FND
Baa_Baa
22-04-2024, 12:47 PM
Hey rawz ..you should have a squizzy at this
https://x.com/mattjmcclintock/status/1782156077515096257?s=61&t=iHjDYVMfLj1Ccl5JFHMPjA
I think this is about $FND, Floor & Decor Holdings Inc trading on the NYSE. Not FND trading on the ASX?
I’ve noticed FND going up on the open and over the day slowly going back down then finishing in the red. I don’t think that’s good.
Market cap getting closer to $100m when it should be closer to $200m.
I’m of course riding through the turbulence
Is $FND a buy?
winner69
22-04-2024, 02:04 PM
I think this is about $FND, Floor & Decor Holdings Inc trading on the NYSE. Not FND trading on the ASX?
It is …sorry
Sideshow Bob
30-04-2024, 12:53 PM
Rawz, are FND back out of the naughty corner??
Have cracked back over $3......:)
Rawz, are FND back out of the naughty corner??
Have cracked back over $3......:)
Came here to post weeeeeee backkkkkk :cool:
Sideshow Bob
30-04-2024, 03:32 PM
Came here to post weeeeeee backkkkkk :cool:
:t_up::t_up::t_up:
winner69
12-05-2024, 11:51 AM
Rawz …did you see this
https://stockhead.com.au/experts/criterion-whos-cashing-in-on-cashing-out-in-india/
Rawz …did you see this
https://stockhead.com.au/experts/criterion-whos-cashing-in-on-cashing-out-in-india/
Thanks for sharing. Good write up, should get punters excited come Monday
Sideshow Bob
16-05-2024, 11:08 AM
FY results announcements should be any day now........
Looking forward to reading about the record result and most excited to see commentary on what FY25 will look like
The SP needs some direction. Has been swinging around on low volumes
Sideshow Bob
17-05-2024, 06:35 PM
Bit of a run late in the day back over $3 on better volume.
Roll on next week.....:)
trading halt... downgrade? or friday's jump was a leaky ship and its positive?
The trading halt is requested pending an announcement by the Company to the market in relation to an update on the Company’s FY24 financial results (Purpose).
Findi and their trading halts... not good for the anxiety levels lol
percy
20-05-2024, 12:42 PM
Findi and their trading halts... not good for the anxiety levels lol
I read it to mean you are "well positioned."...
I read it to mean you are "well positioned."...
Yes.... heavy allocation.
Listened to this podcast yesterday: TIP632: Mastermind Q2, 2024 w/ Tobias Carlisle and Hari Ramachandra - We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network | Podcast on Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/episode/3eL0tgrvybVDe4qbgH9yL7)
This specific episode was where a host and 2 guests pitch a stock. Hari Ramachandra pitched an Indian bank. He talked about how fast the Indian economy is growing and specifically the financial system. How the PM, Modi, was driving for all the underbanked to get a bank account and into the financial system. I couldnt help but think the entire time how I am very happy with my exposure to the Indian financial revolution (or whatever you want to call it) via FND. How all their ATMs will be a huge cash cow and how if they get traction on their Findi-pay system it will send the SP sky high.
Fun fact from the episode. All the Indian banks are trading 3-3.5x book value. HGH is trading 0.8x? Shows how excited people are about the financial space in India to reward them with such high book value multiples.
Sideshow Bob
20-05-2024, 01:19 PM
Findi and their trading halts... not good for the anxiety levels lol
Haven't checked in to see what the boys on HC are saying but I can sympathise.
I reckon it is a positive announcement coming.......
Current guidance issued 29 Nov 2023:
Revenue: $67m
EBITDA: $23.6m
Op cash flows: $20.6m
FINDI pay merchant stores to be at 25,000+
Smedley did say last year in an interview they were expecting to win new ATM contracts and the white label license would be issued Jan.
I wonder if they missed out on winning the contracts and due to the delay in the white label license it means guidance needs to be downgraded...
The white label revenue would of course just be deferred into FY25. Missing out on winning new ATM contracts is a different story..
Thats the downside point of view.
The upside is of course higher transaction volumes through the current ATMs, which they have said a few times the transaction volumes have exceeded their expectations. This + findi-pay merchant stores picked up from the 2000 monthly run-rate to much higher and revenue generated from these are above expectations. Last commentary is findi-pay revenue accounted for 10% of the business.
Flip a coin... See what happens. Good or bad. 50/50.
Likely we will get an update tomorrow and i wont be able to see it as ill be on plane and then in meetings. So ill likely just check the SP in the arvo and if its $2.50 ill know it was a downgrade. and if its $3.50 ill know it was an upgrade lol
Sideshow Bob
21-05-2024, 11:15 AM
Here you go Rawz:
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02808793-3A642790
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02808794-3A642791
Here you go Rawz:
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02808793-3A642790
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02808794-3A642791
Thank you! Headline numbers look great
Sideshow Bob
21-05-2024, 12:33 PM
Thank you! Headline numbers look great
Rocketship mode enagaged (again).
miner
21-05-2024, 01:06 PM
Good call guys :t_up:
Sideshow Bob
21-05-2024, 02:31 PM
Rocketship mode enagaged (again).
Rawz, Rawz are you still conscious mate??
Up 26% for the day. :t_up:
I think you gone from ‘well positioned’ to ‘REALLY well positioned’!
That $4 was a bit of a dream but not far away now.
Sideshow Bob
21-05-2024, 07:02 PM
Bit worried about Rawz……
I think he’s knocked back a celebratory 6 pack of craft beer, and feeling a bit under the weather??
percy
21-05-2024, 07:29 PM
Bit worried about Rawz……
I think he’s knocked back a celebratory 6 pack of craft beer, and feeling a bit under the weather??
Champagne surely.?
Champagne surely.?
With some caviar surely.
Pretty happy with my holding which I got in bit late around 1.50, not complaining though, this has got lot more legs to go imo…
Excellent result, huge result..! I won’t get a chance to read it in depth until the end of the week unfortunately, due to work travel.
Fundamentals point to a big re-rate. I see they are giving FY25 guidance in 3 weeks time. Clearly setting us up for a big surge now and then another when we get that guidance.
So much to like, my ideal company; strong balance sheet, good news up cycle and soon to be strong forward guidance (I’m hoping).
Still cheap. I can see $6 by Xmas.
Now just need 2CC and TWR to complete the trifecta
Okay I have read the presso and this is a huge BUY. FND can re-rate to 10-20x ebitda multiple which may seem crazy but that’s what its peers are trading on. So can 2x..3x..4x.. your investment.
The thing is not only is it due a rerate but the ebitda is still going to grow. The SBI contract roll out, redeploy the brown label ATMs to white label, atm transaction fee increases, acquisitions, new contracts. It’s all there in front of us, just read the presentation. This is why I say maybe 4x your money from here if it all goes perfectly.
If you think about the current secure ATM contracts, net cash on the balance sheet, cash flow positive & npat positive, it is a very low risk investment with huge upside. Worth a big bet still and I’m fully loaded and comfortable. The only thing that can ruin me is fraud.
The unknown is Findi-pay. They didn’t really provided any $$$ on it. Is it profitable? We don’t know, unless I missed it.
I’m very bullish so someone needs to come in and put forward the bear case please, to settle me down lol
3 weeks time they will announce FY25 guidance, imo if you are thinking of buying you would want to do it before this time.
Might see 4 handle today to sp, while news get digested and big boys draw their bows on the back of it.
Will wait for FY25 guidance and take ebitda and x that by 9 and that will be my new target price. Will know it will be conservative and subject to upside pending new contract wins, acquisitions etc.
I’m a bit of a simpleton when it comes to valuations
the reason why ebitda is the one to watch is because the ATMs are depreciated so quickly vs their actual life. I dont have my head around it all and need to wait for the final report. But basically FND have told us they will last 12 years but for whatever reason they are depreciated as if they last 5-6 years.
Plant and equipment $41,593k
Depreciation $9,847k
DarkHorse
23-05-2024, 09:03 PM
the reason why ebitda is the one to watch is because the ATMs are depreciated so quickly vs their actual life. I dont have my head around it all and need to wait for the final report. But basically FND have told us they will last 12 years but for whatever reason they are depreciated as if they last 5-6 years.
Plant and equipment $41,593k
Depreciation $9,847k
Good point. If we halve depreciation to reflect actual rather than accounting value, and consider net cash, EV/E multiple is only 15x, but some adjustment needed for minority interests. With one contract covering current earnings for at least 4 years, strong top and bottom line growth is almost guaranteed.
Good point. If we halve depreciation to reflect actual rather than accounting value, and consider net cash, EV/E multiple is only 15x, but some adjustment needed for minority interests. With one contract covering current earnings for at least 4 years, strong top and bottom line growth is almost guaranteed.
yes this is how i see it as well. Earnings will grow with any new contracts, flagged transaction fee increase and flagged acquisitions as the market consolidates. Then there is findi-pay which is you- the dark horse :cool: findi-pay has huge potential.
So 15x estimated multiple is not unreasonable for now even though management are telling us compared to their listed competitors FND is way undervalued.
Looking forward to guidance which will be issued in a few weeks. Then looking forward to seeing how the rest of the year plays out.
Chairman Smedley is a major shareholder and working hard to maximize our returns
Sideshow Bob
27-05-2024, 02:40 PM
Not having a good day today......down 11% currently on perhaps slightly higher than average volume.
No news I can see but something must have spooked some holders?
Not having a good day today......down 11% currently on perhaps slightly higher than average volume.
No news I can see but something must have spooked some holders?
I feel likes its been volatile since the white label announcement took the SP down to $2.50? Then up to $3.90 on FY numbers now down to $3.50. FY25 guidance coming up soon. Cant see any reason to sell until that drops.
Sideshow Bob
27-05-2024, 03:53 PM
I expect it is just noise - intraday it can be up/down close to 10% through the day.
Sideshow Bob
27-05-2024, 04:04 PM
Bigger trade (about 48k) just went through at about $3.20
I tried googling ATM india, TSI india, FND india lol... nothing popping up. Not sure what's going on...
Sideshow Bob
28-05-2024, 10:17 AM
Nothing revealing on HC.....best explanation was the below:
I think you're right though that it probably isn't someone selling with inside knowledgeable. The volume is too low and remaining sell orders too small to suggest someone big seeking to exit, but the selling has also been so aggressive today that those selling/sold seemed determined to exit or possibly also the trading today has triggered a series of stop loss orders.
This trading makes no sense to me. I’m not sure what games are being played but it just looks and feels very strange
Hopefully get the FY25 guidance next week sometime. I’m expecting a material uplift in ebitda.
Good day today with FY25 guidance just around the corner 👀
Incredible write up about Findi:
https://dmxam.com.au/blogs/findi-a-research-trip-to-india/
In it they discuss a potential $1b TSI market cap when it lists on the Bombay exchange in 2026. FND own 80% of TSI so FND worth $800m or 4x from here.
Explains the big jump today
Sideshow Bob
04-06-2024, 01:34 PM
Thanks for sharing Rawz.
I was reading in one of their recent updates that they had had to trim their FND position with the increasing share price, in order to keep their portfolio in balance under their rules.
The opposite of the old mantra of "cut your losers, let your winners run....'
Yes DMX have been trimming all the way up. Im pretty sure i remember reading they started trimming at under $2 per share... so they have left a lot of money on the table. They cant let it run like we can. Must think about diworsification.
Sideshow Bob
04-06-2024, 03:05 PM
Yes DMX have been trimming all the way up. Im pretty sure i remember reading they started trimming at under $2 per share... so they have left a lot of money on the table. They cant let it run like we can. Must think about diworsification.
One advantage private investors have over funds......
Announcement (stocknessmonster.com) (https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fnd.asx-3A643938/)
AICC Fintech Australia presentation from Findi. Notice a big change from previous presentations. this time there is a big focus on FINDI-Pay. Not a lot about the ATM side of the business.
This follows the DMX India tour and blog about the valuation difference TSI will achieve when it lists on the Bombay stock exchange as a full service financial hub vs ATM business.
FY23 number of merchants 8,773
FY24 number of merchants 28,111
FY25 number of merchants 60,000 (guidance)
FY25 guidance must be coming next week.
Happy holder
Sideshow Bob
09-06-2024, 01:16 PM
Released after market close Friday. Look forward to Monday morning.....
Released after market close Friday. Look forward to Monday morning.....
It came out Thur. Which probably explains big jump friday.
We must be getting FY25 guidance this week anyway. So no doubt more good news for the up cycle to continue :t_up:
Sideshow Bob
10-06-2024, 12:08 PM
It came out Thur. Which probably explains big jump friday.
We must be getting FY25 guidance this week anyway. So no doubt more good news for the up cycle to continue :t_up:
Thanks Rawz - looked at the time not the date! :sleep:
Kings Birthday in most of Oztrayla today, so market closed.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fnd.asx-3A644576/
Another good investor presentation from FND. Basically, talking about where they have come from and where they are heading. Includes valuation scenarios putting FND on a very low multiple compared to its industry peers. Nothing in there about FY25 guidance unless i missed it, just skimmed through as im busy at work. Will read in full tonight.
SP up 7% today
oh my $4 team :t_up::cool:
Up 51 cents today. Thats a 51% one day gain on my original investment at the start of the year. wtf thats insane
winner69
19-06-2024, 04:50 PM
oh my $4 team :t_up::cool:
Up 51 cents today. Thats a 51% one day gain on my original investment at the start of the year. wtf thats insane
Keep with it mate …I should have listened to you a few months ago
Daytr
19-06-2024, 05:05 PM
Keep with it mate …I should have listened to you a few months ago
Agreed. What's your current assessment on growth etc RAWZ?
Sideshow Bob
19-06-2024, 09:20 PM
oh my $4 team :t_up::cool:
Up 51 cents today. Thats a 51% one day gain on my original investment at the start of the year. wtf thats insane
Not sure what I’ve been doing today but hadn’t realised until logged in and saw your post.
Awesome!! Well done mate!! :p:t_up::p
I had been thinking about buying a few more in the $3.50’s…..look like I missed that boat!! :cool:
Agreed. What's your current assessment on growth etc RAWZ?
I’m waiting for FY25 guidance. Ebitda should be 20-30% up on FY24. Maybe they low ball us and save room for upgrades.. fair value is then 8-10x the new ebitda guidance.
White label will drive the ATM business strongly. Then there is potential for new contract wins, flagged acquisitions and ATM fee increases by the Indian reserve bank. ATM business is a strong cash cow.
FINDI-Pay is targeting a 150% increase in merchant numbers. This has been flagged as adding materially to top line.. no mention of bottom line so maybe we assume it’s not adding much to profitability yet. Need to see the AR. Findi-pay is very exciting and if successful will help achieve these 20x ebitda multiples being thrown around..
We will know more when guidance comes
Daytr
20-06-2024, 09:15 AM
I’m waiting for FY25 guidance. Ebitda should be 20-30% up on FY24. Maybe they low ball us and save room for upgrades.. fair value is then 8-10x the new ebitda guidance.
White label will drive the ATM business strongly. Then there is potential for new contract wins, flagged acquisitions and ATM fee increases by the Indian reserve bank. ATM business is a strong cash cow.
FINDI-Pay is targeting a 150% increase in merchant numbers. This has been flagged as adding materially to top line.. no mention of bottom line so maybe we assume it’s not adding much to profitability yet. Need to see the AR. Findi-pay is very exciting and if successful will help achieve these 20x ebitda multiples being thrown around..
We will know more when guidance comes
Much appreciated. Will take a closer look.
Not sure what I’ve been doing today but hadn’t realised until logged in and saw your post.
Awesome!! Well done mate!! :p:t_up::p
I had been thinking about buying a few more in the $3.50’s…..look like I missed that boat!! :cool:
Was looking to top up around that range, bugger it just raced away in last few day too rapidly. At this rate could well get into 5s range soon. Per Hotcopper, looks like MST are quite keen this one, must be the reason for big moves over last couple of days.
Me too Bob and sb9. Had $14k in my sharesies account looking for a home and when the SP dropped below $3.40 i was going to put it in for some more shares but didnt for whatever reason.
MST access has put a new valuation of $5.43. You can access the free research here: Research Notes - MST Access (https://www.mstaccess.com.au/research-notes) you just need to create a login.
FY24 result: Revenue of $66.5m (+22% pcp) was largely in line and EBITDAof $27.4m (+63%) was a strong beat against guidance of $24.0m (and vs ourown estimate of $24.9m). We note the result did not include the full impact ofthe CBI contract rollout, which will provide added benefit to FY25.
Balance sheet strength to support digital strategy: the strong resulthighlights the margin and cash flow benefit being achieved as the companyscales its ATM and merchant footprint (now ~49k as last reported), the latterof which is particularly key to Findi's digital strategy. FindiPay is currently only~10% of revenues vs management's longer-term goal of 30%.
Upgrades to earnings outlook drive valuation upgrade: we have bumpedour revenue and EBITDA expectations for FY25, but more meaningfullyincreased our forecasts for FY26 (refer to financial summary), once the fullimpact of the expected White Label ATM license and SBI rollout is realised.We await further FY25 guidance in the coming weeks.
Investment Thesis
Only Australian-listed way to gain access to Indian fintech market: Asone of the world’s largest non-bank ATM operators in a very large market,Findi services >2.7m customers daily in India across >49k locations, involvingboth ATMs and merchants. We expect this footprint to continue growingalongside population growth (from 1.4 bn currently), a reduction in theunbanked population (estimated at ~25% presently) and further adoption ofdigital payments, even while cash remains king.
Leveraging ATM & merchant stronghold to cross sell digital services:Findi is uniquely positioned as an end-to-end provider (the only fintechprovider that provides both ATMs and digital services) that can leverage itsbasic cash services, as a cheap customer acquisition channel, to furtherdevelop into a full-service digital banking provider. Both business segmentsprovide significant diversification benefits across cash and digital.
Current earnings multiple highlights value on offer: Applying aconservative market multiple of 10.5x to our updated FY25 EBITDA forecastof $32.4m results in a valuation significantly higher than the current shareprice.
Valuation
Findi’s earnings outlook underpins our valuation based on a 10-yearDCF and market EBITDA multiple (equally weighted). Our valuation of$5.43/share (up from $4.31) is supported by growth in Findi’s ATM networkand services which should drive revenue and profitability.
Risks
Key risks to our thesis include macroeconomic risk (related to Indianeconomic health), regulatory risk (which govern Findi’s ability to providepayment services), management execution risk and key client risk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xCJDUtrWSE
WORTH A WATCH
Sideshow Bob
24-06-2024, 01:20 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xCJDUtrWSE
WORTH A WATCH
Thanks for sharing Rawz. Will give this a watch......
Away again this today......!! :)
Almost better than the Blues winning the Super Rugby title!! :eek2:
Thanks for sharing Rawz. Will give this a watch......
Away again this today......!! :)
Almost better than the Blues winning the Super Rugby title!! :eek2:
Lol 20 years without a title is tough to beat..
I prefer the title than the FND gains lol. I can make plenty more money but could be another 20 years of pain watching the blues :p
That MST access report on FND is also worth a read. Very detailed this time. The analysist(s) went on the trip to India along with our friends at DMX.
From the report:
Valuation of $5.43/Share Implies 50% Upside
Base-case valuation: Discounted cash flow (DCF) and EBITDA multiple weighted equally
We upgrade our valuation for Findi based on a DCF and market-based EBITDA multiples basis (both equally weighted) to $5.43 per share (prev $4.31 per share).
On a standalone basis, our DCF valuation is now $5.50 per share (vs $4.48 prev), over our forecast period out to FY34. Given the long-dated assumptions underlying the DCF, it is useful to bench mark this against a market multiple, hence our decision to weight our DCF and market multiple valuations equally.
Our market multiples–based valuation is $5.36 per share (vs $4.13 prev). We apply a 5-year averageASX300 EBITDA multiple of 10.5x to our FY25 estimate of EBITDA for Findi of $32.4m.
Findi has 48.8m shares on issue and 9.5m total options (exercisable at $0.90 per share and $2.00 per share) with various vesting dates, which we assume will issue giving a fully diluted share count for our valuation of 58.3m shares. The vast majority of options on issue are held by Findi’s directors, providing incentive alignment between both management and performance of the company.
.....
50% of base-case valuation = market comparison using EBITDA multiples
Peer group provides interesting comparison… The peer group that we use for Findi is based on industry background, primary activity and global comparables, particularly those directly involved with financial services in India. We provide summary descriptions of each company in Figure 14 below.
…but we use the market EBITDA multiples as a key valuation input. Direct comparison of Findiwith a peer group (by way of business type, function and size) is difficult, particularly given the various revenue segments and strengths of different peers. There is also limited consensus estimate data forthe next fiscal year, although an average of Infibeam Avenues and CMSInfo Systems for FY24e gives a multiple of 17.4x (see Figure 14 – below).
To overcome the challenge of limited available data and the difficulties associated with direct comparison, we apply a more general market approach by referencing the 5-year average EV/EBITDA multiple for the ASX300 of 10.5x (more conservative than the average peer multiple of 17.4x), which leads to a valuation of $5.36, marginally below our DCF valuation.
We note the multiple we apply above is largely in line with the multiple applied to FY23 EBITDA for the Pirimal Alternatives deal in mid-November, when Findi announced that its Indian subsidiary, TSI India, raised $37.6m via placement of Compulsory Convertible Debentures (CCDs) to Pirimal. These CCDs must be converted to equity when TSI India (Findi’s 100%-owned subsidiary, expected to be rebranded under the Findi name) lists on the Bombay Stock Exchange in the future as planned. The CCDs include an annual coupon payment of 8% and call option to buy back the securities at a committed IRR of 18%. If the call option is not exercised before listing, the CCDs will convert to approximately 16.7%of the company once converted to equity. This implies a total market cap upon IPO for TSI India of~$225m, which provides additional upside compared to the stated pre-IPO market capitalisation of$153m (post money $190.6m) based on an FY23 EV/EBITDA multiple equivalent to ~9x (FY23EBITDA was $16.8m).
$4.70. New high. I thought we were going to have a pullback but it just keeps nudging higher.
FY25 guidance must be close. They said it would be released in 3 weeks about 5 weeks ago
Hopefully see an acquisition next quarter.
Lots to look forward to
Sideshow Bob
27-06-2024, 04:17 PM
Annual report out today - https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02821602-3A644946
Not that far off $5.......maybe FY25 guidance might push it over the edge (or maybe not)
Its farking nutz anyway!!
Only last week I was trying to top up at $3.50! :laugh:
Annual report out today - https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02821602-3A644946
Not that far off $5.......maybe FY25 guidance might push it over the edge (or maybe not)
Its farking nutz anyway!!
Only last week I was trying to top up at $3.50! :laugh:
Bob I think by Bombay stock exchange listing time we will be looking at a $10 SP…..
Definitely knocking hard on $5 mark.
I read this and thought of my FND investment:
Instant success is a curse and a gift. The curse is you think luck is skill. The gift is you know it can be done. Then it’s a race to turn luck into skill before you lose it all.
While we wait FY25 guidance update, sp seem to be hard pushing thro to 5 mark.
Investment webinar today.
- Aquisition's close to being announced and to be fully funded by current balance sheet. Aquisition's include ATM and digit businesses.
- Findi-pay close to breakeven at 60,000 merchants. Forecast to be profitable at 100,000 merchant level. Still in investment phase.
- SBI contract roll out fully funded by current balance sheet. Roll out to occur second half of this year.
- Old SBI ATMs to be converted to white label ATMs. Again they say its full funded by current balance sheet.
- Indian IPO target still CY2026.
Overall things still tracking well and no capital to be raised anytime soon (apart from the remaining options).
One can see EBITDA doubling in the next 2 years if you look at SBI contract and white label forecast numbers.
The ATM business looking pretty good right now with this global outage.
Cash still has its uses
Sideshow Bob
24-07-2024, 12:35 PM
Starting to challenge $4 rather than $5.
Bought a handful more this morning.
Youtube link to the ShareCafe preso - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t31z6lxr_1g
Starting to challenge $4 rather than $5.
Bought a handful more this morning.
Youtube link to the ShareCafe preso - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t31z6lxr_1g
It's been a solid drift down since $4.93!!
Sideshow Bob
25-07-2024, 12:53 PM
It's been a solid drift down since $4.93!!
The drift continues.....$3.81 in early trade.
Never go in a straight line, but surprised to see a 20% pullback from the peak, with no news.
Whether a few are locking in gains and then hoping for a cheaper re-entry point? ;)
The drift continues.....$3.81 in early trade.
Never go in a straight line, but surprised to see a 20% pullback from the peak, with no news.
Whether a few are locking in gains and then hoping for a cheaper re-entry point? ;)
reminds of that other big pull back. $3.40 down to $2.20 low of the day (closed higher). something like that.
Like you say it is on no news. So no need to react to the SP movements. Lots to look forward to:
FY25 guidance
Acquisitions
findi-pay growth
the SP can be volatile both ways to be fair. Wasnt that long ago it raced to $4.90
Omg its in free fall :scared: down to $3.60 as i type
This is a big buying opportunity imo.
I sold 20% of my holding around $3.30 a few months ago and regretted it ever since. I'm going to buy them back.
The only reason for a big sell off that i can think of would be the white label license not being formalized. And somehow this has been leaked? (FND typically hasnt been a leaky ship)
Otherwise i cant think of anything negative to see the SP fall so far.
winner69
26-07-2024, 01:09 PM
Is it just coincidence that FND share price started falling after Modi and his party didn’t win the election by a big enough margin to get a majority
I vaguely remember reading a comment that this wasn’t what the fintech industry wanted …vague enough not to recall detail.
Is it just coincidence that FND share price started falling after Modi and his party didn’t win the election by a big enough margin to get a majority
I vaguely remember reading a comment that this wasn’t what the fintech industry wanted …vague enough not to recall detail.
Punters on HC saying industry peers going up in value. Which would mean election result isnt affecting the industry.?
percy
26-07-2024, 03:41 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02831832-3A646635&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02831832-3A646635&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d
Smedley had to put something out to stop the rot!!
Sideshow Bob
26-07-2024, 09:17 PM
Smedley had to put something out to stop the rot!!
Part of the problem has been that they said "It is expected that earnings guidance for FY25 will be issued in the coming weeks."
But that was on the 21st of May....!!
A few punters might have got a bit anxious.
Might have to siddle over to HC and see what the punters are saying there.
Part of the problem has been that they said "It is expected that earnings guidance for FY25 will be issued in the coming weeks."
But that was on the 21st of May....!!
A few punters might have got a bit anxious.
Might have to siddle over to HC and see what the punters are saying there.
Bit like the white label license timing.
'will be granted this year'
actually we mean 'will be granted this financial year'
then gets confirmed in April. but still requires some audit to be completed.
I think Smedley and co are just a bit too enthusiastic and their best intentions are to release the update 'in the coming weeks'... but things like new contracts and acquisitions maybe move slower than they think so they get caught out giving out timelines that they cant live up to.
Kinda like when im at the pub and text the Mrs that im leaving in 10mins but by the time i actually say bye to everyone and finish my beer its been 30mins :scared: i honestly did mean to leave in 10 mins lol
Sideshow Bob
29-07-2024, 12:33 PM
Smedley had to put something out to stop the rot!!
Rot continuing this morning......
Rot continuing this morning......
I managed to scrape together $14k AUD and used it to buy more at $3.45 via sharesies. ($15 brokerage how good).
Using the cheat 8x EBITDA multiple valuation (based on guru investors Piramal when they did the debentures) it is undervalued based on FY24 numbers.
And in a few days we get FY25 numbers which will be much higher than last year.
So I think its okay to add a few more in this huge pullback we are experiencing.
kiwical
29-07-2024, 07:29 PM
I managed to scrape together $14k AUD and used it to buy more at $3.45 via sharesies. ($15 brokerage how good).
Crikey mate. I'm scraping up $140 to go towards my Power Bill this month. Ah well. One day I might be as high rolling as some of you lot. But yes, as well as capped rates Sharesies has let us micro buyers in. I can buy another $100 worth here or there with $1.09 brokerage, when my power bill isn't due lol.
Sideshow Bob
29-07-2024, 07:43 PM
Crikey mate. I'm scraping up $140 to go towards my Power Bill this month. Ah well. One day I might be as high rolling as some of you lot. But yes, as well as capped rates Sharesies has let us micro buyers in. I can buy another $100 worth here or there with $1.09 brokerage, when my power bill isn't due lol.
Rawz has been on fire recently, with the likes of 2CC and Tower, not to mention Findi at <$1. He sold some a while ago to take some money off the table, but great to see him backing himself and his analysis and taking the opportunity at lower levels.
However having said that, what was the saying about buying in a downtrend?? :sleep:
kiora
29-07-2024, 09:16 PM
& What was the saying about buying below 90 DMA?
Crikey mate. I'm scraping up $140 to go towards my Power Bill this month. Ah well. One day I might be as high rolling as some of you lot. But yes, as well as capped rates Sharesies has let us micro buyers in. I can buy another $100 worth here or there with $1.09 brokerage, when my power bill isn't due lol.
I just checked my Sharesies account and I started with $995 4 years ago. Everyone starts small. There are some posters here with millions invested in the share market. The fishing pond gets very big.
In regards to buying in a downtrend, yes very risky right now in this pullback but still the chart looks good as far as I can tell. we know how quick FND can go up… double edge sword I guess. An acquisition, RBI price increase, new contract, white label roll out, Findipay growth etc etc a few positive announcements and suddenly we are over $5 and heading to $6
Just looked at the chart again and actually yes doesn't look good how far its dropped :scared:
See what happens over the coming days
percy
30-07-2024, 10:45 AM
https://yhoo.it/3WCqE5N The RSI at just 31 is a concern.
https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/fnd.asx
On this chart the share price is just below the 90 day moving average $3.50 but well ahead of the 180 day moving average $2.50.
Baa_Baa
30-07-2024, 11:05 AM
The 50EMA on Daily log scale chart had been a reliable support for the whole uptrend from Oct'23, when that broke at about $4 on large volume it was a strong signal to adjust positions and wait for the return of an uptrend.
https://invst.ly/15so80
New substantial owner. Jack Yetiv. I put his name in google and there is a seeking alpha profile. Has been an investor for 30 years.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/fnd.asx-3A646796/
Looks like he has been accumulating all year. Started at $1.29 and paid as high as $4.62. Looks like fairly consistent DCA into findi.
Invested $8.4m. Avg purchase price $2.97
ValueNZ
30-07-2024, 11:13 AM
I just checked my Sharesies account and I started with $995 4 years ago. Everyone starts small. There are some posters here with millions invested in the share market. The fishing pond gets very big.
In regards to buying in a downtrend, yes very risky right now in this pullback but still the chart looks good as far as I can tell. we know how quick FND can go up… double edge sword I guess. An acquisition, RBI price increase, new contract, white label roll out, Findipay growth etc etc a few positive announcements and suddenly we are over $5 and heading to $6
I started with $50 6/7 years ago buying random smart share funds.
SP downtrend means less risk :scared:
But it's true. If you're paying a lower price then there's more of a margin of safety and your long run forward return will be greater, holding all else constant.
The 50EMA on Daily log scale chart had been a reliable support for the whole uptrend from Oct'23, when that broke at about $4 on large volume it was a strong signal to adjust positions and wait for the return of an uptrend.
https://invst.ly/15so80
*if you are a trader this would be good to do.
But FND has moved up very quickly in the past. So you would have to be bang on with your timing. Something i cant do well
I started with $50 6/7 years ago buying random smart share funds.
SP downtrend means less risk :scared:
But it's true. If you're paying a lower price then there's more of a margin of safety and your long run forward return will be greater, holding all else constant.
My concern with buying in a downtrend is Mr Market knows something i dont. Some examples I've thought about before buying:
- FY25 numbers have been leaked and they are lower than FY24
- White label audit failed and temp license will be revoked
- RBI or Central govt intervention impacting the income that the ATMs can generate.
I came to the conclusion overall that these negatives are unlikely. I think the pull back is maybe more people are sitting on huge gains and are just securing some profits. The delay in FY25 numbers from what we were told maybe put some panic into holders minds and they just wanted to get out with the gains they had. Nothing wrong with that. But for me the 8x EBITDA valuation has always worked. FND historically isnt a leaky ship and the directors have invested millions of their own money into all the previous cap raises.
percy
30-07-2024, 01:47 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02832981-3A646854&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02832981-3A646854&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d
Cant see anything new in this.
Nevertheless still good reminder of what the business is up to and where its heading. Also likely just a flag to holders- 'hey guys, the SP pullback is nothing to do with the business fundamentals, all is tracking as normal'...
Those proposed ebitda multiples are something ay... FND could 5x from here... if one was to believe it deserved those same multiples
SP up 20cents hmmmm here we go folks
Sideshow Bob
31-07-2024, 04:29 PM
Back at $4.00
Nice buying Rawz :cool:
Sideshow Bob
31-07-2024, 04:30 PM
Cant see anything new in this.
Nevertheless still good reminder of what the business is up to and where its heading. Also likely just a flag to holders- 'hey guys, the SP pullback is nothing to do with the business fundamentals, all is tracking as normal'...
Those proposed ebitda multiples are something ay... FND could 5x from here... if one was to believe it deserved those same multiples
It would have been reassuring to the market - reconfirming they are on track. Seen that reaction in SP.
It would have been reassuring to the market - reconfirming they are on track. Seen that reaction in SP.
tomorrow reaction to FY25 numbers will be interesting too.
1pm nz time is the call.
percy
01-08-2024, 10:43 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02834383-3A647067&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02834368-3A647064&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d
Sideshow Bob
01-08-2024, 10:45 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02834368-3A647064&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d
Revenue $80-90m, EBITDA $30-35m AUD
FindiPay rolled out across 6 new states, acquiring 3,000 merchants per month
Advanced Due diligence on acquisitions
Smedley now executive chairman
IPO of TSI India on track for 2026
Strategic investments in Findipay, people, systems to support growth
Preso here - https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02834383-3A647067&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d
FY25 not as good as i had hoped. Put down to ATM downtime. That is okay.
Can tell FY26 will be the year of riches.
The acquisitions.. I assume they are outside of this guidance. So potential for upgrades once they are signed off..?
I think current market cap is about right. maybe ~20% undervalued if you apply the 8x ebitda trick.
Market is happy. Phew lol
Market is happy. Phew lol
Spoke to soon!
The call was great I thought and made me quite excited for the next 24 months.
Some key bits from the call:
- Any RBI price increase (expected this year) isn't included in guidance
- Acquisitions this year will add to guidance
- Digital (Findi-pay) is 10% revenue still. Negative EBITDA currently. Profitable at 100,000 merchants.
- Insurance now offered through merchants
- $2k one off cost required for each merchant (this must be rupee??). Then recurring revenue from there.
- ATMs depreciated over 10 years vs useful life 15 years
- Active discussions being held with leading Indian banks to utilize Findi-pay in branch. TSI ultimately targeting to run the branch (very interesting).
- Findi-pay sales team to double. Current run rate of 3000 merchants per month expected to grow significantly
FY25 is the year of investment, clearly. FY26 onwards should provide material uplift in revenue and ebitda.
If these guys can execute they will achieve a $600m-$1,000m market cap when it lists on the bombay stock exchange. this is compared to todays market cap of $192m
SP in big trouble and has me worried.
But not worried about the business...
Time to buckle up and hold out for the acquisitions and growth of findi-pay for positive news momentum
Sideshow Bob
15-08-2024, 08:39 PM
AGM today and the Executive Chairman's address
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02839048-3A647863&v=fc9bdb61fe50ea61f8225e24ce041a0e155a9400
Market didn't seem to find inspiration, down 4.5% today.
Sideshow Bob
19-08-2024, 12:04 PM
Findi has turned up on "The Bull" share tips for the 1st time I can remember
As a sell
https://thebull.com.au/18-share-tips/19-august-2024/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+19+A ugust+2024
Findi is a digital payments and financial services provider. The company generated revenue of $66.5 million in fiscal year 2024, up 22.1 per cent on the prior corresponding period. EBITDA of $27.4 million was up 63 per cent. The company has guided for higher revenue and EBITDA in fiscal year 2025. But it did not provide net profit after tax guidance for fiscal year 2025. The shares rose from $1.04 on January 2 to close at $4.80 on July 15. The shares have since retreated to trade at $3.36 on August 15. In this volatile market, investors may want to consider taking some money off the table.
I'm still holding. Lots of positive announcements to come in FY25. I think a small upgrade for FY25 will happen by the end of the year.
At a $175m market cap it is undervalued imo
Sideshow Bob
22-08-2024, 03:51 PM
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/cheap-reliable-growth-flying-under-the-radar-on-the-asx
Sideshow Bob
23-08-2024, 12:59 PM
Then all of a sudden, up 10% this morning and hits $4.00 again....
Coming back to fair value!!
percy
27-08-2024, 11:25 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02843657-3A648874&v=fc9bdb61fe50ea61f8225e24ce041a0e155a9400
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02843657-3A648874&v=fc9bdb61fe50ea61f8225e24ce041a0e155a9400
very cool announcement
Sideshow Bob
27-08-2024, 01:59 PM
very cool announcement
Market initially liked it - currently back down to opening price.
With their announcements, not sure if normal Findi all-over-the-place price movement or if things are a bit leaky??
Market initially liked it - currently back down to opening price.
With their announcements, not sure if normal Findi all-over-the-place price movement or if things are a bit leaky??
seems a bit leaky was my thought earlier today? who knows maybe the leak came from CBI. Historically FND has not shown signs of leaky ship
whatever thou- this is just another step in the right direction.
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