View Full Version : 2024 NZX Stock Picking Comp
Hi Everyone,
Here is the link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing)
As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours.
Here are the rules and other information for 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition.
Rules:
"1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ).
- Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $7m may not be selected."
2) Please also make SIXTH & SEVENTH picks - this will be used as a 'backup preference' should one or two of your picks delist or merge during the year. It won't cover companies that are placed in liquidation or dissolved.
3) Each pick has an equal weighting. You cannot pick the same option more than once.
4) Picks in by 9am January 3rd 2024 (New Zealand time); i.e., prior to trading opening.
Returns calculations:
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $50,000 ($10,000 per pick)
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2023 (Dec 29th 2023) to the last closing price of 2024.
3) Its a 'total return' competition. Dividends, Rights, Warrants will be included.
3.1) Dividends will be calculated as following: for PIE entities declared Dividend Amount will be used; for non PIE entities the following formula is used (Dividend Amount + Imputation Credit) - 33%. So, effectively it will be Net Dividends. In addition for Dividends paid in AUD and GBP appropriate exchange rates will apply
3.2) Rights issue will be calculated as following: Number of rights will calculated according to declared ratio. Amount needed to buy new shares will be Number of rights multiplied by Exercise/Issue Price. To cover that amount Number of existing shares will be "sold". That number will be Amount needed divided by Share price at the end of the first trading day after the announcement. Difference between new Issued shares and shares "sold" to cover cost will be added to your holding.
3.3) Warrants issue will be calculated as following: Number of warrants will be calculated according to declared ratio. If warrants declared as tradable on NZX, value of those warrants according to the current price will be added to associated ticker. Otherwise there will be no additional value. Also there will be no additional value if warrants exercise date is before end of 2024.
4) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this. The realisation will then be "re-invested" in your backup preference (see 2), allowing the opportunity to continue participation on a level playing field.
5) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.
How to register:
Registration is now closed.
Here is the link to Registration form https://script.google.com/macros/s/AKfycbzh6Dai6HLSL8H5JD9TIancAQTfTrFAXxUq8SYohvv5EW 4tsodHusBSDMccQsGP7HI2/exec (https://script.google.com/macros/s/AKfycbzh6Dai6HLSL8H5JD9TIancAQTfTrFAXxUq8SYohvv5EW 4tsodHusBSDMccQsGP7HI2/exec)
To register for the first time you need to provide User Name of your choice (if User Name you have chosen already in use you would need to choose another one) and E-mail address then click 'Request Unique Code'. An unique code will be send to email address you provided. If you can't find that email in your Inbox folder you might need to check your Junk/Spam folder. After you receive your Unique Code you can copy-paste it into Unique Code field. Now you can use it along with User Name and E-mail address which you have registered to enter or update your entries by clicking 'Continue'. Once you entered your picks click 'Submit'.
If you lose your unique code you can use the same User Name and E-mail to request it again. Click 'Request Unique Code' and the same unique code will be send to the email address you provided.
You will be able to register up to 3 different User Names with the same email address. Each User Name will receive its own unique code.
If you want to change/update your selection just use the same form enter User Name, E-mail and Unique Code you have used at first registration and click 'Continue'. After you made changes click 'Submit'.
Registration will be closed 9am January 3rd 2024 (New Zealand time) prior to trading opening.
To see the list of all current participants, eligible companies and competition rules click this link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pheuKnW4jxZbhwTjxdKvWmMLeapre1F7js7NLywwEGk/edit#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pheuKnW4jxZbhwTjxdKvWmMLeapre1F7js7NLywwEGk/edit#gid=0)
If you encounter any issues please let me know
Good luck to you all!
xp04
Bobdn
24-12-2023, 07:53 PM
Excellent! it worked a treat, thank you.
Wow I wouldn't know how to organise something like this. I'd have to do it with pencil and paper.
percy
24-12-2023, 08:18 PM
Excellent! it worked a treat, thank you.
Wow I wouldn't know how to organise something like this. I'd have to do it with pencil and paper.
Worked a treat for me too.
Thank you xpo4 for running this year's competition.
Many thanks for setting this up. Best of luck to everyone
Many thanks xp04 for running this for 2024
Everything works a treat :)
We lost a lot of the fun volatile picks, like NTL etc this time
stones
25-12-2023, 10:21 AM
Up and running. Thanks xpo4.
We lost a lot of the fun volatile picks, like NTL etc this time
Thank you everyone.
I do not know where that rule come from but I agree that restrictions on market cap is a bit harsh. I think some small companies are quite popular around here and surely someone would be happy to add them to their selection. Rules are meant to be broken. So, it’s not too late to make some exceptions to that rule. Let me know if you want some currently excluded companies to be added.
Merry Christmas to you all and have a safe one!
Cheers
SouthernSlim
26-12-2023, 09:05 AM
Thanks in advance for your services xpo4 for running the comp ,
Good luck to fellow contestants.
Hopefully we are all in for a wild positive ride 2024.Yeeha!
JimmyTrade
26-12-2023, 09:42 AM
The year for Synlait return to the glory days! :t_up:
mike2020
26-12-2023, 01:30 PM
My guess 2031!
Thanks in advance for your services xpo4 for running the comp ,
Good luck to fellow contestants.
Hopefully we are all in for a wild positive ride 2024.Yeeha!
A wild ride on NZX ? ;)
Just about as scarce as blue moons ? :)
Thank you everyone.
I do not know where that rule come from but I agree that restrictions on market cap is a bit harsh. I think some small companies are quite popular around here and surely someone would be happy to add them to their selection. Rules are meant to be broken. So, it’s not too late to make some exceptions to that rule. Let me know if you want some currently excluded companies to be added.
Merry Christmas to you all and have a safe one!
Cheers
I would be happy to have NTL, it's a fun wildcard and has a long history of hate on sharetrader, myself and a lot of other people here are still holding and hoping, I would like to pick it in the comp
Well, I suggest some compromise. Lets lower market cap threshold to 7 millions. In that case the following companies will be eligible:
CCC Cooks Coffee Company Limited $9.1M
CRP Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited $8.3M
ENS Enprise Group Limited $12.0M
NTL New Talisman Gold Mines Limited $8.8M
TRU TruScreen Group Limited $9.7M
VTL Vital Limited $10.0M
If there are not many objections I will make changes to Registration form tomorrow and those who want to update there selections will be able to with their existing user name, email and code.
traineeinvestor
26-12-2023, 09:15 PM
xp04 - many thanks for running the 2024 competition
Unfortunately, I'm having trouble accessing the form - After several attempts (and rechecking that I'm putting everything in correctly), I keep getting this message: "Error: User traineeinvestor not found."
Not sure what I'm doing wrong?
xp04 - many thanks for running the 2024 competition
Unfortunately, I'm having trouble accessing the form - After several attempts (and rechecking that I'm putting everything in correctly), I keep getting this message: "Error: User traineeinvestor not found."
Not sure what I'm doing wrong?
A Winner on the 2023 ASX one - Well done - but surely you're promoted to Honorary Assistant to xp04 in this one for NZ as a bonus prize .. but with limitations ? ;)
Toddy
26-12-2023, 10:40 PM
Well, I suggest some compromise. Lets lower market cap threshold to 7 millions. In that case the following companies will be eligible:
CCC Cooks Coffee Company Limited $9.1M
CRP Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited $8.3M
ENS Enprise Group Limited $12.0M
NTL New Talisman Gold Mines Limited $8.8M
TRU TruScreen Group Limited $9.7M
VTL Vital Limited $10.0M
If there are not many objections I will make changes to Registration form tomorrow and those who want to update there selections will be able to with their existing user name, email and code.
And if at any stage the market cap falls below 7m during the competition then the company is automatically disqualified.
Fair is fair if you start allowing companies with not much more value than a decent house in Remuera.
xp04 - many thanks for running the 2024 competition
Unfortunately, I'm having trouble accessing the form - After several attempts (and rechecking that I'm putting everything in correctly), I keep getting this message: "Error: User traineeinvestor not found."
Not sure what I'm doing wrong?
Hi traineeinvestor,
For some reason I'm unable to send you a private message.
I checked your record and everything works fine. Have you actually received the code and have you used the same email address and that code to submit your picks?
Hi Everyone,
I have noticed quite a few incomplete entries for the competition. It looks like people registered (requested code) but did not submit their picks. Please check if you were added to the current participants list https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pheuKnW4jxZbhwTjxdKvWmMLeapre1F7js7NLywwEGk/edit#gid=0
If you are not on this list you need to submit your picks as instructed in the first post on this thread. If you have any issues to do so please let me know
Thanks
Paint it Black
27-12-2023, 02:49 PM
And if at any stage the market cap falls below 7m during the competition then the company is automatically disqualified.
Fair is fair if you start allowing companies with not much more value than a decent house in Remuera.
Don't agree Toddy as it could then become complicated if a company yoyo's under and over $7 million. Also it could then disqualify punters who pick one of these stocks. Suggest just keep it simple and allow the companies XPO4 has listed for the full 2024. If any of these fall below $7million then the SP will probably reflect this fall anyway,
Bobdn
27-12-2023, 02:59 PM
Tom Lee thinks US small caps could increase 50 per cent in the next 12 months (prediction a few weeks old, they've already started moving). Anyway thats why I've included them in my picks - not that anyone was wondering.
I own everything in my picks.
Bobdn
27-12-2023, 04:09 PM
@SR, nah, I've owned everything for years now. Years! I do seek out commentators that reinforce my existing portfolio holdings however ;)
This is what I was referring to:
https://youtu.be/wCxzxPcV0hw?si=kJNzuVhc9Vb2oI5W
Alright, I made the change. Market cap threshold was lowered to 7 millions. The following companies now can be selected as your pick
CCC Cooks Coffee Company Limited $9.1M
CRP Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited $8.3M
ENS Enprise Group Limited $12.0M
NTL New Talisman Gold Mines Limited $8.8M
TRU TruScreen Group Limited $9.7M
VTL Vital Limited $10.0M
There won't be any company disqualifications once competition started.
Any of you who wish to update your selections are welcome to do so free of charge :) Just use the same user name, email address and code as in original submission. You can do as many changes as you want until closing date 9:00am January 3rd 2024.
As I pointed out earlier there are quite a few incomplete entries for the competition. The following users might want to check their status and enter or update their picks.
Dark Horse
Carl Thomas
Freebee
traineeinvestor
Habits
Snigmac
gv1
Snoopy
Ziggy
JUSTASKPERCY
If your existing Code does not work you will need to request a new one.
Everyone, please check again if you are on the list 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition Registration - Google Sheets (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pheuKnW4jxZbhwTjxdKvWmMLeapre1F7js7NLywwEGk/edit#gid=0)
If you are not - you are not in the competition.
Thank you.
Did anyone else get this on registering.....
TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function
No upper case was used.
Did anyone else get this on registering.....
TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function
No upper case was used.
Give me a minute. I'll look at this
Yes me too Triple 7
TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function
Uppercase was used in my user name but so have plenty of others
Did anyone else get this on registering.....
TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function
No upper case was used.
Should work now. Did not expect name to be a number :)
You would need to request a new Code and refresh your browser
That worked thank you xp04
Thank you also for running the competition.
Pricey
28-12-2023, 07:26 AM
Done, thanks for sorting - any chance of linking a poll to this thread? I am interested to know whether people actually pick companies within their portfolio or just take a punt?
Paint it Black
28-12-2023, 10:39 AM
Are you entering the stock picking competition this year SailorRob? Maybe even your 'mate' Daytr will also have a punt? Would be interesting to see how you both go tee hee.
Are you entering the stock picking competition this year SailorRob? Maybe even your 'mate' Daytr will also have a punt? Would be interesting to see how you both go tee hee.
Very interesting. May be as well as a similar "dude" did in the crypto competition. All noise.
JBmurc
29-12-2023, 12:01 PM
Have entered my first NZX comp is along time ... be interesting to see how my picks go
SailorRob
29-12-2023, 12:16 PM
Very interesting. May be as well as a similar "dude" did in the crypto competition. All noise.
I haven't responded yet to paint it black, I will when I have time. But what are you saying here, can you clarify for me please?
Done, thanks for sorting - any chance of linking a poll to this thread? I am interested to know whether people actually pick companies within their portfolio or just take a punt?
I don't think it's possible to link a poll to existing thread
Yes me too Triple 7
TypeError: el[0].toUpperCase is not a function
Uppercase was used in my user name but so have plenty of others
Worked for me the next day - even though no numbers in my moniker!
winner69
30-12-2023, 12:11 PM
Bugger, was going to do the STU man trick to win this years comp
TRA best thing for 2024 amd the entry was going to be TRA TRA TRA TRA TRA but bugger it you can’t replicate picks:t_down:
alokdhir
31-12-2023, 03:19 PM
Bugger, was going to do the STU man trick to win this years comp
TRA best thing for 2024 amd the entry was going to be TRA TRA TRA TRA TRA but bugger it you can’t replicate picks:t_down:
W69 ...lets do a test of TRA resilience from these levels ...duration whole 2024 ...TRA vs KFL ...31st Dec 2024 dont forget to tabulate final outcome ...let the best stock win our this competition !! :D
Hi Everyone,
Just a friendly reminder. Registration will be closed tomorrow morning January 3rd 2024 prior to trading opening.
Thanks
Registration is now closed. Link to the new competition board will be published shortly.
Thanks
Hello again,
The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing)
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.
Thanks
iceman
03-01-2024, 06:25 PM
Hello again,
The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.
Thanks
Well done. Thank you.
Bobdn
03-01-2024, 06:35 PM
Excellent thank you. I'm already negative out of the gate but I'm not giving up on the year just yet.
Paint it Black
03-01-2024, 08:39 PM
Excellent thank you. I'm already negative out of the gate but I'm not giving up on the year just yet.
Thank you also XP04 - a fantastic contribution to Sharetrader which I'm sure will be keenly followed!
alokdhir
03-01-2024, 09:07 PM
Hello again,
The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.
Thanks
Thanks and very well done ...super organised and simple to track :t_up:
SCOTTY
04-01-2024, 08:59 AM
Hello again,
The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.
Thanks
Congratulations xp04. Your spreadsheet is brilliant :)
Grimy
04-01-2024, 08:28 PM
Does anyone know how to make this thread "Sticky", so it stays at the top of the first page?
percy
04-01-2024, 08:44 PM
Does anyone know how to make this thread "Sticky", so it stays at the top of the first page?
Send a PM to Vince asking him to do it.
Grimy
04-01-2024, 09:49 PM
Thanks Percy. Have done so.
Bobdn
08-01-2024, 07:56 PM
I'm at 147, almost last. My whole passive fund thesis is unravelling.
Congratulations xp04. Your spreadsheet is brilliant :)
It sure is - with automatic update of market values
Thanks again XP04
Grimy
10-01-2024, 08:34 PM
Just bumping up the list before it drops off the 1st page.
Toddy
10-01-2024, 09:39 PM
Why does a stock picking competition need to be on the first page every day?
Grimy
10-01-2024, 10:07 PM
Just thought it would be easier/quicker to find. The previous ones are and aren't as relevant.
Bobdn
10-01-2024, 10:28 PM
@Grimy good idea. I love the competition and check it every day.
When will Value, Small Caps, emerging markets, the NZX50 start to do the business. C'mon Fu*ckers! It's time to deliver!
It's time for a come back. Yes we had a hint of it in 2022 but it didn't last...
Hello again,
The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
This link also has been added to the first post on this thread. As usual, data and information will be updated regularly during trading hours. If you find any issues please let me know.
Thanks
Bringing forward XP04's link to the Spreadsheet
Bobdn
11-01-2024, 12:34 AM
Ah yes I see it's in my Sheets tab. God, that's amazing.
RupertBear
13-01-2024, 11:49 AM
Just had a look at the latest placings
JUSTASKPERCY leads the pack
And Percy himself is in 3rd place
Looks like Percy and his admirer are the ones to watch this year! :D
Just had a look at the latest placings
JUSTASKPERCY leads the pack
And Percy himself is in 3rd place
Looks like Percy and his admirer are the ones to watch this year! :D
His Admirer seems to have learnt well :)
Grimy
22-01-2024, 11:38 AM
Thanks for your work XP04. Like the rank change column (saves me thinking!).
Leemsip
25-01-2024, 08:59 PM
I also love the comp. Thanks grimy.
Some absolutely genius early calls by what the stock. Hope you got real cash invested
Grimy
25-01-2024, 09:58 PM
Don't thank me Leemsip!
What the stock
25-01-2024, 10:34 PM
Didn't look "absolutely genius" early on, I was absolutely last after the first few days before the position improved - didn't think I'd picked that bad at the time haha. Kudos to the organiser(s) for the excellent spreadsheet, it'll be interesting seeing the progress of the competition over the year
troyvdh
27-01-2024, 07:11 PM
Giday I generally focus on the Ozy thread ...not meaning to annoy any one ...How come no one has picked PFI and why MFB ? How many receive C Lees news letter.
Re MFB what is experience of food being delivered like.
Bringing forward XP04's link:
The link to the 2024 NZX Stock Picking Competition board is now available
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j1jwFjyUnGGqLZX_o8PAJsxZ5Y0L60Em0VxcUDvrT2c/edit?usp=sharing
wizAlvin
06-02-2024, 12:39 PM
how on earth did you get a moderator or someone to make this sticky. on the ASX side - nothing i do get any response. ?????
ronaldson
14-02-2024, 12:40 PM
"Bloodbath" experience for those unfortunate enough to have included "blue chip" FBU in their competition portfolio.
Bobdn
16-02-2024, 12:37 PM
Wow, I'm in the top 10! Not bad for someone who, seriously, can't read a balance sheet.
Please don't ask about my "process". It's highly confidential and included careful analysis of 9832 listed companies - I decided to include the lot.
Edit: I see I have a competitor in Waiuta (currently number 2). Like your style man - it's a battle of the ETFs
Waiuta
17-02-2024, 08:41 AM
Wow, I'm in the top 10! Not bad for someone who, seriously, can't read a balance sheet.
Please don't ask about my "process". It's highly confidential and included careful analysis of 9832 listed companies - I decided to include the lot.
Edit: I see I have a competitor in Waiuta (currently number 2). Like your style man - it's a battle of the ETFs
I was lucky enough to win it a couple of years ago with stocks I owned. I've since sold them all except IFT and put the proceeds into managed funds. So, this year ETF's for a punt.
Bobdn
17-02-2024, 12:18 PM
Good one.
I'm slowly moving away from some of my Smartshares funds now. It's global share fund (TWF), for example, has fees of 0.4 per cent. It's too much in this day and age. Excellent say 10 years ago but some cheaper NZ based options are available now.
Still, Smartshares have worked well for me in the past. And I should note that the total ASX200 and NZX50 ETFs are more competitively priced. It's US 500 is also not too bad for fees.
Good one.
I'm slowly moving away from some of my Smartshares funds now. It's global share fund (TWF), for example, has fees of 0.4 per cent. It's too much in this day and age. Excellent say 10 years ago but some cheaper NZ based options are available now.
Still, Smartshares have worked well for me in the past. And I should note that the total ASX200 and NZX50 ETFs are more competitively priced. It's US 500 is also not too bad for fees.
I’ve been using IBKR Pro for my USA stuff which is all passive. Set up is pretty easy, transferring of funds is easy, fx rates are extremely sharp, brokerage low, and can access lowest cost ETFs directly. Am looking around for an equal weighted SPY to compliment my other US etfs but for some reason the fees on those are unexpectedly high (but miles cheaper than smartshares). Havent used Hatch or other platforms yet
Bobdn
17-02-2024, 01:09 PM
Equal weighted products are expensive for some reason. I wanted an equal weighted energy ETF but saw it had 0.4 per cent fees so stuck with VDE's 0.1 per cent fees.
Fees are important over the long term but I'm careful to remind myself that they're a minor element compared to my tendency to self sabotage by trying to time the market or by allowing what should be a small tilt (e.g. energy) to get out of hand.
I have Hatch, Smartshares, Simplicity and Kernel Wealth.
JeffW
17-02-2024, 01:19 PM
I’ve been using IBKR Pro for my USA stuff which is all passive. Set up is pretty easy, transferring of funds is easy, fx rates are extremely sharp, brokerage low, and can access lowest cost ETFs directly. Am looking around for an equal weighted SPY to compliment my other US etfs but for some reason the fees on those are unexpectedly high (but miles cheaper than smartshares). Havent used Hatch or other platforms yet
Does the FDR Tax Treatment of investing direct offset not more than offset the NZX ETF fees and PIE tax treatment?
Does the FDR Tax Treatment of investing direct offset not more than offset the NZX ETF fees and PIE tax treatment?
I cant invest into PIEs. Or local ETFs. Well I can but its not tax efficient - on account of my multiple passports. Long story and not relevant to 99% of people here.
ronaldson
19-02-2024, 07:31 PM
This competition is currently a health hazard. Only 45/158 are actually in positive territory at market close today.
I wonder what the average score is. I am 58th at minus 1.12% so that tells a tale!
FBU and RYM are only some contributors to to the malaise. There are many more. I hope folks real portfolios are in better shape.
This competition is currently a health hazard. Only 45/158 are actually in positive territory at market close today.
I wonder what the average score is. I am 58th at minus 1.12% so that tells a tale!
FBU and RYM are only some contributors to to the malaise. There are many more. I hope folks real portfolios are in better shape.
Hahaha .. enuff of that - I'm not complaining .. ATM has been really kind :)
Now without that - I would say NZX is a Health Hazzard .. ASX more volatile but
easier to dodge the multitude of dead, dying and crippled broken ^** outfits
and other casualties that hang out between the vast lines of NZX Funds etc :)
Leemsip
20-02-2024, 09:06 AM
Yeah the NZX is a bloodbath. This is what happens heading into a recession. Anything selling to Kiwis gets pumped, unless its mandatory.
I hope my exporting Scales, TWR insurance and boring electricity can hold the line.
ronaldson
24-02-2024, 08:22 AM
Interesting week for this competition by any measure, with some serious volatility!
Congratulations to "northcote" who has now finally relinquished last place to another unfortunate soul, and to "Tim Nice But Dim" who was the biggest mover, up a massive 95 places and coming from the clouds to 45th on the list.
Competitors to watch are "Felix" and "carrom74", both up 38 places to 5th and 7th respectively to lodge their challenge.
winner69
24-02-2024, 08:53 AM
Comrade Ardern has 5 solid picks in FBU ARV RYM OCA and GNE
2nd last and -15%
Who would have thought that but no worries come year end could be near the top
Comrade Ardern has 5 solid picks in FBU ARV RYM OCA and GNE
2nd last and -15%
Who would have thought that but no worries come year end could be near the top
Few possess the ability of Ardern to drive an economy that far down the list.
Bobdn
24-02-2024, 02:16 PM
I'm out of the top 10 now. I should never have included the NZX50...or maybe it will pick up steam. Who the hell knows.
Bobdn
04-03-2024, 04:22 PM
Iceman number 3 with some solid ETF picks. I'm number four. Are US small caps starting to work?
Time for Journey's "Don't stop believing"
https://youtu.be/VcjzHMhBtf0?si=QT7cRuSXqU9mRvVE
ronaldson
04-03-2024, 07:53 PM
I'm out of the top 10 now. I should never have included the NZX50...or maybe it will pick up steam. Who the hell knows.
Well, you are back in 6th place and shining brightly.
But just look at all those negative 1% or more and sailing on the Red Sea! Only two months into the competition and its already looking terminal for many.
The Government reset is just starting to bite, a fall in interest rates is further in the distance and it doesn't seem many have much free cash to invest so the restoration of halcyon days is not in prospect. Can anyone possibly catch What the stock?
the market is rough right now. hard to hide from it. red day after red day it seems. lots of bargains out there. wish i had more cash to invest
the market is rough right now. hard to hide from it. red day after red day it seems. lots of bargains out there. wish i had more cash to invest
I'm thinking more downside to come yet.
ronaldson
07-03-2024, 12:11 PM
A question or two about dividends.
I have KFL in my picks (don't really know why - I have regretted it), which has just gone ex a 2.58c pie dividend. Is credit given in the competition for that after the ex date (ie now, when the on-market share price falls to reflect that) or only on/after the payment date?
And for non pie dividends is it the gross or net dividend credited?
A question or two about dividends.
I have KFL in my picks (don't really know why - I have regretted it), which has just gone ex a 2.58c pie dividend. Is credit given in the competition for that after the ex date (ie now, when the on-market share price falls to reflect that) or only on/after the payment date?
And for non pie dividends is it the gross or net dividend credited?
1) Dividends added to total return on ex date and displayed in Dividends column on Stocks tab
2) Non pie dividends calculate as net dividends. You can see explanation on Info tab
ronaldson
07-03-2024, 01:13 PM
Thanks xp04. That all seems the right approach.
ronaldson
08-03-2024, 09:19 PM
Another week done and dusted and I'm told the NZX is up 1.5% over that period. Certainly 57/158 are now in positive territory. Big improver Paint it Black is up into 4th position (from 25th) to look dangerous on the leaderboard.
Commiserations to whirly, down 46 places, and congratulations to Rawz finally showing his class with the biggest rise, 35 places to rest in 26th.
What will next week bring?
ronaldson
15-03-2024, 07:41 PM
Week done. NZX must have reverted to type (actually, down 1.3% for the week) as only 45/158 are in positive territory. More than 100 competitors are busy sailing on the dreaded Red Sea at 1% or more negative.
Big winner is Borneo climbing 40 places to reach the Top 10 in eighth. Big loser JUSTASKPERCY has dropped 45 places to be 148th and percy, who has exactly the same portfoio selection but with ARV in lieu of BRW, down 35 places to 134th.
Does anyone think the situation can be rescued? It looks unlikely any real improvement can manifest until mid/late May when the next round of results announcements are promulgated, and even that circumstance is probably fraught.
Bobdn
22-03-2024, 12:00 PM
US small caps delivering Iceman and me to the promised land!
ronaldson
22-03-2024, 09:12 PM
US small caps delivering Iceman and me to the promised land!
Correct, but What the stock still leads although Waiuta has narrowed the gap.
Big winner this week is silverblizzard.888 who rose 42 places, while nomis managed to slip 34 places down the list. Still the lower 100 are in red number territory, and only 44 are green with hamish powering into a Top 10 placing.
This is proving a difficult year, where only the fittest look likely to survive!
This is proving a difficult year, where only the fittest look likely to survive!
Lesson to be learned here.
Bobdn
25-03-2024, 11:14 AM
How cool is this spreadsheet. I see each of the individual names now have their performance detailed?
Brilliant.
How cool is this spreadsheet. I see each of the individual names now have their performance detailed?
Brilliant.
Yes xp04 has done an amazing job
Baa_Baa
25-03-2024, 11:51 AM
How cool is this spreadsheet. I see each of the individual names now have their performance detailed?
Brilliant.
Agree, well done xp04, that's really interesting seeing which shares are pumping peoples position and which are dragging it down. Excellent improvement, thank you.
Grimy
25-03-2024, 12:01 PM
Thank you xp04. That really is an informative addition to the table.
ronaldson
25-03-2024, 02:29 PM
Agree, well done xp04, that's really interesting seeing which shares are pumping peoples position and which are dragging it down. Excellent improvement, thank you.
Brilliant. You may have this job/chore for life xp04!
What the stock
25-03-2024, 03:54 PM
Again, nice spreadsheet work
Also c'mon NTL - Waiuta is making me nervous:)
I’m glad the changes have a positive response. Also want to say big thanks to those who making suggestions for improvements. So, if you have some ideas how to improve the spreadsheet please let me know and I’ll see what can be done. Thanks
xp04 as you update the competition throughout the day I can only assume you have things automated. Are you out of pocket with getting the information? I am sure contributions would be forthcoming.
xp04 as you update the competition throughout the day I can only assume you have things automated. Are you out of pocket with getting the information? I am sure contributions would be forthcoming.
Thanks for the suggestion :) But I'm using information that is publicly available and completely free. As for writing spreadsheets and scripts I just to do it for enjoyment and glad to be at your service :)
Baa_Baa
25-03-2024, 07:36 PM
I think everyone who appreciates XP04's generous contribution, should click on the little 'star' at the bottom left of his post and give some positive, feedback and encouraging reputation. Just saying, it's easy to acknowledge what you really appreciate on ST, give reputation. Let's flood xp04 with our appreciation for running the ST stock picking contest, and doing so with such style and unassuming modesty.
alokdhir
26-03-2024, 05:17 AM
I think everyone who appreciates XP04's generous contribution, should click on the little 'star' at the bottom left of his post and give some positive, feedback and encouraging reputation. Just saying, it's easy to acknowledge what you really appreciate on ST, give reputation. Let's flood xp04 with our appreciation for running the ST stock picking contest, and doing so with such style and unassuming modesty.
Fully agree with u and had done that several times ...now system doesn't let me give him any further positive rep ...lol
ronaldson
28-03-2024, 09:41 PM
Q1 calender 2024 is effectively over. Slightly brighter this week too. Only 88 now sailing the red sea, and a few more fortunate souls have reached greener pastures, myself included.
Congratulations to Prestige_worldwide up 25 places and Bubble risen 24. Arow weakened by 30 places to take the wooden spoon this week, while Leemsip and Kennedy have reached/returned to the Top 10.
Happy Easter everyone, and safe travelling if you are on the move!
Bobdn
02-04-2024, 05:42 PM
Good weekly summaries Ronaldson.
Prestige_worldwide - a privately held powerhouse. If it ever goes public, I'm there.
https://youtu.be/ciS914MaDl8?si=21EgjIMAukKfyInW
Good weekly summaries Ronaldson.
Prestige_worldwide - a privately held powerhouse. If it ever goes public, I'm there.
https://youtu.be/ciS914MaDl8?si=21EgjIMAukKfyInW
Simply the best
XP04 has done this now with extra columns in the spread sheet. Another nice improvement.
Grimy
02-04-2024, 07:27 PM
Yes. The spread sheet gets more interesting almost every time I look at it (apart from my position on it....). Many thanks XP.
ronaldson
05-04-2024, 08:24 PM
Another short week behind us, with the NZX down 0.77% and apparently unable to breakout on the upside.
Wooden spoon this week goes to Ruaone down 28 places, edging Paint it Black who fell 21. I acknowledge lurking somewhere near the median on the list is most dangerous, as the potential to rise or fall significantly is greater so as to get a dishonourable mention or cudos as the case may be.
Silverblizzard.888 gets another reference, this time rising 40 places although still -1.56%, with Percy and Ratkin tied for the silver medal, up 35 places.
On another note, does anyone think SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT is Beagle in disguise? Would he possibly nominate 2CC, MFB, IKE, NTL and MPG as his portfolio of choice? I don't know.
Those who chose an RV listed entity (quite a few) will have been heartened by the ARV newsletter released today as shining a more positive light on the sector's future. But good luck to everyone as the market continues to surprise both on the upside and the downside, and does anyone really know what Nicola will do come budget day?
Baa_Baa
05-04-2024, 08:50 PM
Another short week behind us, with the NZX down 0.77% and apparently unable to breakout on the upside.
Wooden spoon this week goes to Ruaone down 28 places, edging Paint it Black who fell 21. I acknowledge lurking somewhere near the median on the list is most dangerous, as the potential to rise or fall significantly is greater so as to get a dishonourable mention or cudos as the case may be.
Silverblizzard.888 gets another reference, this time rising 40 places although still -1.56%, with Percy and Ratkin tied for the silver medal, up 35 places.
On another note, does anyone think SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT is Beagle in disguise? Would he possibly nominate 2CC, MFB, IKE, NTL and MPG as his portfolio of choice? I don't know.
Those who chose an RV listed entity (quite a few) will have been heartened by the ARV newsletter released today as shining a more positive light on the sector's future. But good luck to everyone as the market continues to surprise both on the upside and the downside, and does anyone really know what Nicola will do come budget day?
A sobering thought, that the best we can do so far on NZX is about 15% whereas the leader on ASX comp is currently almost 50% up. The time for NZX may be ahead of us, but so far it's massively behind almost every other international bourse.
ronaldson
08-04-2024, 11:52 AM
HGH announcement today will create an interesting exercise for XP04, given it is a popular competition choice with, by my count, 30 entrants selecting it as a pick.
When the current trading halt is lifted the share price will be quoted "ex entitlement" but holders should be credited with another 1 share for every 6.85 held (fractional outcomes are rounded down) at a $1 subscription price, at least from the allotment date.
XP04 may be kind enough to tell us all how/when the competition spreadsheet is to be adjusted?
winner69
08-04-2024, 12:16 PM
HGH announcement today will create an interesting exercise for XP04, given it is a popular competition choice with, by my count, 30 entrants selecting it as a pick.
When the current trading halt is lifted the share price will be quoted "ex entitlement" but holders should be credited with another 1 share for every 6.85 held (fractional outcomes are rounded down) at a $1 subscription price, at least from the allotment date.
XP04 may be kind enough to tell us all how/when the competition spreadsheet is to be adjusted?
I’d say let him assume those 30 won’t participate in the cap raise because they don’t have ‘spare cash’ to do so eh …..so number of shares don’t change.
winner69
08-04-2024, 12:55 PM
Then again XP04 might think yes let them participate in the capital raise ……but they need to sell enough to cover the cost of the new ones as they don’t have any ‘spare cash’
So have 6756 shares now …..entitled to 986 more at $1 …..price close to closing date say $1.00 some 986 needs to be sold …..voila they will still have 6756 shares in competition.
But let’s say share price is $1.10 when they come to sell …only need to sell 896 shares to get the 986 new ones …só end with 90 extra shares.
All seems too hard for XP04 so I stick to saying let’s assume no participation in rights issue and they just keep the 6756 shares
winner69
08-04-2024, 12:57 PM
But then again one could say they do have ‘spare cash’ …..the $251 in divies …but not enough to take up the full entitlement
ronaldson
08-04-2024, 02:22 PM
There will be 30 entrants clamouring not to be "stiffed" here.
Perhaps if keeping the same number of shares/the original $10k investment intact is integral to maintaining balance in the competition then holders can be deemed to have notionally taken up their entitlement at $1 per share and then on-sold them, thereby receiving the difference as an extra (untaxed) "dividend"? Then the issue would become when they were deemed to have onsold, which might need to be some date after the allotment date on 26 April and when the dust has settled?
Grimy
08-04-2024, 02:28 PM
Stop it you two, you're making my head hurt!
I will be taking up my entitlement and after reading the above I don't care how XP04 handles it-I'll be fine with whatever he decides to do.
But then I'm not going to be in the running for a top place finish, so that helps.......
winner69
08-04-2024, 02:38 PM
There will be 30 entrants clamouring not to be "stiffed" here.
Perhaps if keeping the same number of shares/the original $10k investment intact is integral to maintaining balance in the competition then holders can be deemed to have notionally taken up their entitlement at $1 per share and then on-sold them, thereby receiving the difference as an extra (untaxed) "dividend"? Then the issue would become when they were deemed to have onsold, which might need to be some date after the allotment date on 26 April and when the dust has settled?
Seems only about 50% of shareholders participated in the last capital raise ……possibly only 50% this time
I still say assume contestants don’t participate this time ….nice and easy for XP04
And if share price ends year at 80 cents they be better off
Snoopy
08-04-2024, 02:51 PM
I’d say let him assume those 30 won’t participate in the cap raise because they don’t have ‘spare cash’ to do so eh …..so number of shares don’t change.
No sure which pseudonym you have entered the competition under this year Winner. But it is a fair bet that I can now identify 30 that aren't you!
SNOOPY
winner69
08-04-2024, 03:23 PM
No sure which pseudonym you have entered the competition under this year Winner. But it is a fair bet that I can now identify 30 that aren't you!
SNOOPY
Ok Snoops ….you tell XP04 how to handle this …so you benefit
HGH announcement today will create an interesting exercise for XP04, given it is a popular competition choice with, by my count, 30 entrants selecting it as a pick.
When the current trading halt is lifted the share price will be quoted "ex entitlement" but holders should be credited with another 1 share for every 6.85 held (fractional outcomes are rounded down) at a $1 subscription price, at least from the allotment date.
XP04 may be kind enough to tell us all how/when the competition spreadsheet is to be adjusted?
Then again XP04 might think yes let them participate in the capital raise ……but they need to sell enough to cover the cost of the new ones as they don’t have any ‘spare cash’
So have 6756 shares now …..entitled to 986 more at $1 …..price close to closing date say $1.00 some 986 needs to be sold …..voila they will still have 6756 shares in competition.
But let’s say share price is $1.10 when they come to sell …only need to sell 896 shares to get the 986 new ones …só end with 90 extra shares.
All seems too hard for XP04 so I stick to saying let’s assume no participation in rights issue and they just keep the 6756 shares
I surely may :) The rule is 3.2) Rights issue will be calculated as following: Number of rights will calculated according to declared ratio. Amount needed to buy new shares will be Number of rights multiplied by Exercise/Issue Price. To cover that amount Number of existing shares will be "sold". That number will be Amount needed divided by Share price at the end of the first trading day after the announcement. Difference between new Issued shares and shares "sold" to cover cost will be added to your holding.
It could be found on Info tab of the spreadsheet by the way. So, winner69 pretty much has it right. Spreadsheet will be updated after new shares allocated or soon after. Value of new shares will be displayed separately in Rights Adjustment column on Stocks tab.
Also, I think Truscreen and TradeWindow are doing (did) equity raising as well. They will be added too.
Thanks.
ronaldson
12-04-2024, 08:18 PM
Another down week for Mr Market, with the index -0.67% so no surprise we still have a century of folk who are negative for the year to date. What the Stock has defied the odds and is a magnificent 24.64% positive, opening up a significant gap over Waiutu who not that long ago had narrowed the margin to second to less than 2% but is now adrift by just under 12% even though posting a highly creditable +12.96%.
Some recognisable names have entered the Top 10, namely alokdhir, rocketboy and Rawz, but we have said goodbye, maybe only temporarily, to Leemsip, hamish and gerald who have relinquished their places in the sun just now. THE STG, moose and jbmurc are lurking ominously, waiting for their chance at glory.
Wooden spooner this week is baldie, down 26 places, but matched in the other direction by BlackBull Research and Neophyte who moved up that number of places despite being -3.54% and -5.40% respectively at the weekend and lanquishing overall.
I don't think HGH has been adjusted yet (see Post #119 above) or TRU or TWL so some will be waiting on that. But it is a real contest this year and no doubt many twists and turns yet to be revealed. Keep safe over the holiday period and cross fingers that you will be higher in the standings soon!
ronaldson
17-04-2024, 11:39 AM
New development - 7 of the current Top 10 have TWR as a pick.
Congratulations to Rawz who has the silver medal just now, albeit What the Stock appears invincible in the lead.
ronaldson
19-04-2024, 11:18 AM
Perky, Southern Lad, Leemsip, Exec and Felix are new entrants/returnees to the Top 10 this week, and all courtesy of TWR as a pick. There may be even more upside after the actual half year results announcement on 28 May, fingers crossed.
But congratulations to all the above, who could now be moving to a beach to enjoy their place in the sun while it lasts!
ronaldson
19-04-2024, 08:06 PM
Another week done and dusted but a poor one for the NZX, down 1.13%. Will halcyon days ever return?
Gold this time goes to Antipodean coming 42 places from the clouds to 17th. Tonyh gets a mention, up 36 places but still in big red numbers. Gotagiggle down 25 places along with Bubble down 24 are woodenspooners.
TWR did a lot of folk a significant favour. I hope pickers had it in their real portfolios too!
HGH and TWL have yet to reflect the adjustments consequent upon the corporate actions which have impacted them currently. I believe xp04 will have done that by the end of next week, albeit a short one again with the ANZAC Day holiday.
Sleep well everyone, as neither red or green numbers are actually real here!
ronaldson
26-04-2024, 07:18 PM
The English Premier League race is in it's final weeks. Longer to go for the Sharetrader competition but the relegation zone is just as keenly contested. Northcote has resumed the red lantern position, hotly challenged by killdevilhills (who would choose that for a non de plume and why?) and bulltrap, with ralph still perilously in close contention.
At the other end What the Stock is the bookies favourite, with Waiuta still a clear second. Felix and gerald have a way to go but are now best of the rest in the Top 10 having put on a spurt.
Seeking redemption are Sylvester Cat, up 23 places but still minus 10%, and Marbo4 up 22 albeit minus 6%, while the wooden spoon this week goes to mwri down a whopping 28 places, maybe due to BPG, but not totally disgraced as he/she remains respectable in mid table.
Enjoy the weekend.
Felix
27-04-2024, 12:28 PM
The only way I’m pushing higher than current 3rd place is if Comvita’s NBIO turns into an actual Scheme of Arrangement. Here’s hoping because it’s one of my two picks that I actually hold shares.
ronaldson
30-04-2024, 05:38 PM
OMG. I am a strong candidate myself for the woodenspoon this week!
ronaldson
02-05-2024, 02:11 PM
xp04 has posted the month end ( as at 30 April) update column.
I noted Truscreen, Trade Window and HGH have undertaken/completed corporate actions. Can xp04 comment on whether the outcome of these has been appropriately included currently, or is an adjustment still to follow?
xp04 has posted the month end ( as at 30 April) update column.
I noted Truscreen, Trade Window and HGH have undertaken/completed corporate actions. Can xp04 comment on whether the outcome of these has been appropriately included currently, or is an adjustment still to follow?
Yes, the rights adjustment has been included in total value for TRU, TRW and HGH. You can check "Stocks" tab (1) to see details of what is included in each individual stock (2). Rights Adjustment value include detailed explanation in a popup window when you hover cursor over it (3)
Thanks.
15082
ronaldson
03-05-2024, 08:05 PM
Another week has flown by. Time to again acknowledge the outstanding work by xp04 (see #128 above) who has made this years competition the best ever for those participants intent upon following the action.
A lot of volatility this time has seen some large adjustments to placings for some. In the Top 10 Paint it Black has risen a remarkable 21 places to 5th on the ladder, with Rawz up 13 to again be a serious contender in 3rd having dropped the bit when last thereabouts. Peter Li is the gold medallist moving up 41 places but still drowning in the red sea, and GGCC up 38 but similarly needing to struggle to remain afloat. Whetutaewa, numnut and 4kj get honourable mentions as other big improvers.
On the downside I had to go very deep in the order to find Buster, down 24 places to achieve the wooden spoon and only just exceeding my own underwhelming performance this week! Ralph, who was perilously close to the relegation zone last week, is now the red lantern. It really is a dogfight down there to stave off the ignomy of finishing in the rear and having to prop up the entire competition table.
After xp04's adjustments to account for the recent corporate actions there is no need for VAR review to determine where you stand - it is what it shows now. The index was up 1.13% this week, and I am told we are +1.4% for the year. The sharetrader competition results would suggest otherwise, and not many of us look likely to be hired by a fund manager any time soon!
Have a good weekend everyone. Maybe dream about what might have been if your choices had just been different.
ronaldson
10-05-2024, 07:54 PM
Tough week just done, -1.54% and the YTD index now -0.14% overall. No wonder sharetrader competition entrants are struggling, with only 36 in positive territory and 122 negative, with those in the proper red numbers dominant by far.
Last week I said not many of us look likely to be hired by a fund manager any time soon, so let us see how the five "professionals" are doing currently. Nikko Asset Management are out in front +1.40% and in 30th place, and its hard to criticise Hamilton Hinden Green in 41st at -0.37% in the circumstances. More joy thou that Forsyth Barr are 54th at -3.57%, with Devon Funds lagging further in 63rd (albeit still above average out of 158) at -5.29%. Black Bull Research are tail end charlie in 96th and -11.57%. Maybe those in the Top 10 could consider submitting their CV's to BBR shortly, as there could be some analyst vacancies coming up?
jbmurc and THE STG have been lurking close to the action and this week has seen them enter the elite Top 10, while gerald, in 4th place, gets a mention for outstanding achievement given one of his picks is SML at -51.58% yet he is still +7.40% overall. That just shows no one is really out of it until the fat lady sings!
Gold medal goes to Neophyte surging 41 places, with Jeffw getting an honourable mention up 31 places. fiasco has lived up to his/her chosen name by bagging the dreaded woodenspoon, down 38 places, with Tim Nice but Dim who has bounced around both up and down, recognised this time as runnerup down 33 on the ladder.
I noticed the RV sector didn't do well this time so commiserations to those who picked one or more in 2024. Even worse for those who hold in their actual portfolios. Did anyone really believe RYM could fall to $3.67? And when will OCA reward those who have suffered the pain? And could RAK be hiding in the bushes? Check out the on-market price action today.
ronaldson
17-05-2024, 08:52 PM
A volatile week this time but the market ended down 0.45% when the dust settled. Confessions begin in earnest next week so will the tide finally turn? Green shoots are needed but not much market sunshine recently so it may be that spring is still too far away. Does anyone actually have any readies to buy with and if they have are they feeling brave enough?
Rather surprisingly slightly more are in positive territory, albeit just 42 hardy souls so the attrition rate remains severe. Wilson has finally reached nirvana, in 10th, while Paint it Black has edged into 3rd, moose remains prominant and Exec has returned to the fold in 7th. The two leaders are in a race of their own.
Gold medal goes to clip, up 21 places, with Marbo4, 4jk and Aquaman in close attendance. On the downside Sylvor has entered the dreaded relegation zone along with ralph and bulltrap. Wooden spoon goes to Seadog, down 29 places with Dlownz down 27 in runnerup spot. Once again I contended strongly but was nosed into third. RAK resurrected briefly but soon retreated. I and no doubt a few others still have fingers crossed. And RYM gave hope to some but then fell sharply again.
The next two weeks will have a fascination for most forum members as many listed entities report. And Nicola's budget gets ever closer to a full reveal, as not everything gets announced beforehand. But will the surprises be for or against Mr Market? Who knows!
ronaldson
23-05-2024, 10:33 PM
I can't resist giving a quick shoutout to Rocketman and rocketboy, both living up to their names with the former up 36 places this week to 65th and rocketboy up 21 places to 9th on the ladder.
I looked more closely and see that both include THL, EBO and GTK in their picks so that confirms there is a family resemblance. Of course THL is currently a deadweight on their performance but that could change as we get closer to year end.
An interesting week so far with quite a few companies reporting, and mixed receptions. OCA will have many forum members online tomorrow waiting with bated breath for that announcement. I am inclined to think I will enjoy posting my usual Friday roundup this time.
ronaldson
24-05-2024, 07:57 PM
An exciting week, even if not to everyone's benefit, with the market up 0.7% and now at a very marginal 0.1% for the year albeit better off than most competitors.
After work Friday drinks at Forsyth Barr are going down well this evening, as they now lead the professional race up 2.07% overall after being -3.57% only two weeks ago! And Rawz admitted on the 2CC thread today that he is on the beers tonight as well after an excellent result for that stock which has underpinned his return to the Top 10 at 8.50% on the ladder and no doubt as a happy holder too.
Carrom74 has laid down the gauntlet to Waiuta by challenging strongly for second, while Kennedy, Aquaman and rocketboy launched into the Top 10 at the expense of some less fortunate who dropped out. c00ps is almost there in 11th. But the Gold medal this week goes to SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT, up 39 places to 87th despite once being 152nd not that long ago, with Rocketman and Karenski in hot contention but filling the minor podium positions.2CC and GTK are one driving force behind such achievement
The dreaded wooden spoon has gone to Rupert Bear who has fallen somewhat from grace, with iceman probably eternally grateful for just missing getting the nod.
Did anyone seriously consider in January that FBU would be available to be had at $3 and do you even want it now? And then there is the rise and rise of ATM - O to have picked that for the 2024 competition, not to mention your portfolio.
Next week wraps up the 31 March results reporting, but that includes some vital calls. Rawz and I have fingers crossed for TWR - do you?
troyvdh
24-05-2024, 08:03 PM
With respect ..who are you....a share broker.
Like having drinks with FB.
Sorry...I just dont get it.
iceman
25-05-2024, 12:20 AM
With respect ..who are you....a share broker.
Like having drinks with FB.
Sorry...I just dont get it.
I quite enjoy ronaldson’s summaries. He didn’t say he would be at the Friday night drinks at FB. Have another read of his post 😀
I quite enjoy ronaldson’s summaries. He didn’t say he would be at the Friday night drinks at FB. Have another read of his post ��
Me too .. in behind - our good friend Troy .. as Fred used to yell to the Trev's :)
Don't stop your postings - Ronaldson
Grimy
25-05-2024, 06:24 PM
Please keep on with the commentary Ronaldson. I really enjoy your updates on this thread-makes it a little more interesting.
That being said, I also enjoy your general posts.
ronaldson
31-05-2024, 08:48 PM
Another week gone. Nicola didn't move the dial with Budget 2024 yesterday but the long term electricity supply arrangements for Tiwai point announced today certainly put a rocket under the index, up 2.68% for the day and rectifying the count so that the week actually ended up 0.75% overall after a fairly dismal start. Not surprisingly Meridian, Mercury and Contact were big winners and the gold dust rubbed off on SouthPort too. The Government could do with that economic sunshine, but A2 Milk and the listed property companies were also up sharply and downside was muted for others.
At the top of the ladder What the Stock is unassailable, but Carrom74 has got within 1% of Waiutu who had previously looked a certainty for runner up. I had high hopes for the Gold Medal this week but Borneo came with a rush, up 33 places to my 30, with dlownz taking Bronze up 29. Rocketman, after a stellar previous week, wilted significantly this time to take the woodenspoon, retreating 22 places to just nudge out Tomtom for the ''honour".
A short week next time with the KB Monday holiday. Will the positive momentum be maintained from here? The reporting season for y/e 31 March is over. Maybe the market will decide the confessions could have been worse. Dairy is recovering a little and the Governments "fast track" proposals may yet yield some early winners. We will have to wait and see. The competition is not even half over yet so much could still happen to your picks.
Travel safely if you are among those on the move for the holiday weekend. I go to Melbourne on Tuesday for ten days so my contributions may be limited during that time.
Baa_Baa
13-06-2024, 08:59 PM
I think it was a mistake to allow companies that were not "Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $7m may not be selected."
We can see how that has massively influenced the results to-date.
Few serious investors would take these punts, imo, but by doing so in the NZX comp, and they make a few 10th's of a cent gains, they can massively influence the results.
JMHO. Something to consider for next year.
What the stock
14-06-2024, 11:00 AM
This is a great 'free to take part' competition. How much stock (pun intended) the serious/professional investor puts in this I don't know but for me it's a good measure of how someone can fair in a given year using most of the investment options available - updated to be a bit more constructive :)
I think it was a mistake to allow companies that were not "Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $7m may not be selected."
We can see how that has massively influenced the results to-date.
Few serious investors would take these punts, imo, but by doing so in the NZX comp, and they make a few 10th's of a cent gains, they can massively influence the results.
JMHO. Something to consider for next year.
ValueNZ
14-06-2024, 11:10 AM
I think it was a mistake to allow companies that were not "Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $7m may not be selected."
We can see how that has massively influenced the results to-date.
Few serious investors would take these punts, imo, but by doing so in the NZX comp, and they make a few 10th's of a cent gains, they can massively influence the results.
JMHO. Something to consider for next year.
The problem is inherent to having a one year timeline, it lends itself to speculation rather than investing.
If someone told me I had to produce a 100% return in a year, then I'd probably end up speculating in derivatives.
I've got no clue how to do this, but a competition where people can update their portfolio over many years would be better (then have a leaderboard with CAGR).
What the stock
14-06-2024, 12:13 PM
"If someone told me I had to produce a 100% return in a year, then I'd probably end up speculating in derivatives"
Why not go for broke and invest in meme crypto
ronaldson
14-06-2024, 08:30 PM
I was thouroughly distracted last week in Melbourne, so much so that I have no idea who are the medalists who missed out on their hard earned moment of glory on the podium or indeed who is grateful for not being identified as the woodenspooner on that occasion. Not so this week, although volatility was muted so you can get namechecked this post despite relatively limited movement.
Southern Lad and tRADer deadheated for Gold, up 18 places and just nosing out Waikaka. ynot earned the wooden spoon, down a similar number to the winners and ahead of SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT who fell a mere 14 places. And dare I say it, there is a new entrant in the Top 10 this week who would have lodged a more significant challenge if only RAK would catch fire.
What the Stock has retreated sharply but retains the overall lead on +18.35%, a much lesser figure than we have seen for months, ahead of Waiuta who has closed the gap to less than 1%, with Exec in third on 14.18%. They all look more vulnerable than before. I did notice that no one has a "green sheet" on the leaderboard, although Bobdn is close to that unique claim with a single yellow (but still positive) pick. On the other hand 17 participants have achieved the questionable attribute of a full 5 red numbers across their pick line, which signifies redemption this year is nigh impossible. In fact poor ralph has an average outcome of more than negative 34% in less than six months, and others are in almost equally deep water.
I think this shows that trying too hard to come out on top by choosing a portfolio with high potential to move around risks ignomy and an extended timeframe in purgatory. But commiserations to those who tried but are now experiencing remorse for their actions. No doubt a lot of action still too come but green shoots are needed. The Tiwai announcement settled the energy sector, while tax relief has yet to kick in and inflation is off the boil so there is still hope if you are brave. The RV operator sector has been smashed but adjustments have been made and results could improve. TWR and VGL are showing the market the way so onward to next week!
Bobdn
17-06-2024, 02:56 PM
Ronaldson, I see you're solidly in the top 10! Well done. I miss my top 10 days.
If Tom Lee is right, and US small caps start to work, maybe, just maybe, I'll return.
Edit: sorry I may have jinxed your good run.
ronaldson
21-06-2024, 08:43 PM
Ronaldson, I see you're solidly in the top 10! Well done. I miss my top 10 days.
If Tom Lee is right, and US small caps start to work, maybe, just maybe, I'll return.
Edit: sorry I may have jinxed your good run.
Bobdn - You did indeed. No sooner in than out! But you and rocketboy have both returned to glory, while What the Stock has wings again to put some distance on Waiuta at the very top.
An interesting week, with IFT taking the headlines and RAK not able to complete the course. Only 37 competitors are positive with their picks, leaving 121 negative and many of those by significant margins, which suggests the NZX is in something of a funk and in need of support, as many portfolios will testify, and the index was down another 1.5% overall. Even the professionals are struggling, with Hamilton Hindon Green in front but minus 1.42% overall as Forsyth Barr have drifted away and are back in bold red numbers. Not to mention poor Black Bull Research who have now broken the -20% barrier, which could be a record for analysts taking part.
SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT has the Gold Medal up 30 places to 73rd overall, ahead of Antipodean up 26 to a commendable 20th on the ladder, with ynot in bronze. Woodenspoon goes to audiav, down 23 places with hogie, cgba and 4kj in close attendance. Red Lantern is now northcote, more than 37% down and again likely a record score.
Reporting seems to be dominated by announcements that are downgrades however they are dressed up, but IFT raised a billion dollars just by waving a wand. What would SML have given to be able to do that? A lot of angst in retail and hospitality not yet offset by any Government largesse. Thankfully the Tax Returns I have been busy doing this week yield refunds by my calculation which is much better than the alternative.
We may technically not be in a recession but life isn't easy either. We will be at the halfway point in the competition at the end of June so time yet for the tide to turn to help those who are drowning currently. Hold on to hope everyone. If Luxon and Willis can remain positive so can we!
NZO will be delisted from the NZX tomorrow. Yesterday was its last trading day on NZX. There are two NZO picks (Felix and benk) in competition and they have been substituted by corresponding backups (ERD and BGP respectively).
ronaldson
27-06-2024, 07:33 PM
Yet another short week. Does anybody actually get any work done in this country? And the market fell 1% today, which took any gloss away as well. When the market trades again we will be at the halfway mark in the competition.
percy up 17 places took out the Gold Medal, with GGCC and audiav on the podium. Wooden spoon went to rrr who was severely dealt to retreating 22 places. Quite a gaggle of suspects behind down 13, who are fortunate to remain nameless. I note that 25 of us have a full slate of red numbers across their picks while not a single soul has a green sheet - it's tough out there this year.
I wasn't much enlightened by Oceania's ASM this afternoon. We will have to wait for the 30 September reporting towards the end of calendar 2024 to know properly how it is at The Helier and if dividends will resume. RAK made a positive announcement so backsliding there should be over. The ERD ASM yesterday indicated brighter days might be ahead, and the SML saga would seem to reach better definition later in July although the actual outcome remains cloudy indeed.
The Government budget kicks in on 1 July so excuses from that point get harder. At least the Brnderwyns highway has now reopened, and the extra fuel tax applied in Auckland is gone from Monday. TWR holders will be wondering about the impact of the latest storm on their prospects but I doubt flood insurance is available now in Wairoa and Haumoana residents must be reconsidering their long term future also.
The NZX is in a considerable funk. Hamilton Hindon Green remain ahead in the professionals race but even they are negative. Are there green shoots anywhere? I don't know. Keep your cash safe and hunker down meantime.
Tomtom
01-07-2024, 09:17 PM
Everything seems to be going pear shaped for me this year. I may need to start a whisky thread in late December to find the perfect bottle to drown my sorrows.
Everything seems to be going pear shaped for me this year. I may need to start a whisky thread in late December to find the perfect bottle to drown my sorrows.
there will be a lot in a similar boat - with the way the market trends & economic conditions have gone this year to date.
ronaldson
03-07-2024, 11:40 AM
O Wow. What the Stock has been dislodged by Waiutu at the top of the leaderboard just now! That didn't seem possible for months.
And somehow I am in 4th place, which also seemed highly unlikely in the first six months of the competition. Just shows change can happen, as Luxon seems intent upon achieving for the country.
I like his style. Just such a contrast with the previous Government's modus operandi. Rolling Action Plans lead to transparency and measureable outcomes, and the time initially invested in developing the respective Coalition Agreements has not been wasted either. And I see some strong and competent ministers, regardless of their party affiliation, which is driving purposeful change.
I see you sneaking up - Mr Ronaldson :)
ronaldson
04-07-2024, 12:06 PM
Look at Felix go this week! What a great time to swap out from NZO after delisting late last month and into ERD as his off course substitute!
Bobdn
05-07-2024, 11:07 AM
I'm not saying a word. No jinx.
ronaldson
05-07-2024, 08:18 PM
Another week's numbers are in. The big news is that What the Stock has relinquished a picket fence circumstance at the conclusion of every month of the competition so far and fallen to fourth place on the ladder. Still time to redeem his/her fall from a state of grace before 31 July, but others now have a sniff of glory, including Waiuta who is no longer bridesmaid having at last caught the bouquet and leads by over 3% now.
At the time of writing this update the paging has had 86762 views so all credit to xp04 who has produced the format for a mesmerising thread on this forum. The professional race is the tightest it has been with Forsyth Barr just ahead of Nikko Asset Management and Hamilton Hindon Green clustered together in 43rd, 44th and 45th respectively. The Top 10 still contains the usual suspects with one new player who has unexpectedly legged it to prominance, with moose, Bobdn and Mad Goat Keeper trying to keep those folk honest by challenging for the honour with over 8% green numbers but not yet in clover.
cycat64 has the Gold Medal up 31 places, with Felix and OLD SURFER on the podium. Conversely clip is the wooden spoon, down 33, with GIBJA and SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT also falling away sharply.
Good luck to everyone next week. Can you get namechecked? Who knows. The market has still to deliver for most and many continue in red numbers. Can anyone in that situation be revived? Surely some can. We will see.
Bobdn
05-07-2024, 08:36 PM
What an interesting week!
2nd place for you Ronaldson, brilliant.
Well done Waiuta. Love the fact that number 1 is four whole market ETFs covering most of the developed world's equities plus a "mad money" pick of ATM (how I see all single stocks), which has turned out to be a banger.
I'm a big fan of having core ETF holdings and a ring fenced 5 to 10 percent allocation to anything that takes your fancy.
Another week's numbers are in. The big news is that What the Stock has relinquished a picket fence circumstance at the conclusion of every month of the competition so far and fallen to fourth place on the ladder. Still time to redeem his/her fall from a state of grace before 31 July, but others now have a sniff of glory, including Waiuta who is no longer bridesmaid having at last caught the bouquet and leads by over 3% now.
At the time of writing this update the paging has had 86762 views so all credit to xp04 who has produced the format for a mesmerising thread on this forum. The professional race is the tightest it has been with Forsyth Barr just ahead of Nikko Asset Management and Hamilton Hindon Green clustered together in 43rd, 44th and 45th respectively. The Top 10 still contains the usual suspects with one new player who has unexpectedly legged it to prominance, with moose, Bobdn and Mad Goat Keeper trying to keep those folk honest by challenging for the honour with over 8% green numbers but not yet in clover.
cycat64 has the Gold Medal up 31 places, with Felix and OLD SURFER on the podium. Conversely clip is the wooden spoon, down 33, with GIBJA and SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT also falling away sharply.
Good luck to everyone next week. Can you get namechecked? Who knows. The market has still to deliver for most and many continue in red numbers. Can anyone in that situation be revived? Surely some can. We will see.
Oh look I got a mention! :D
https://i.imgur.com/HtFGLff.jpeg
ronaldson
08-07-2024, 10:05 AM
Chin up clip. I was runner up for the spoon one week not long ago and then look what happened!
Chin up clip. I was runner up for the spooon one week not long ago and then look what happened!
:D I am OK with it, my picks this year are either going to put me in first place or last place, it is a fun gamble
ronaldson
12-07-2024, 12:07 PM
Congratulations to Bobdn who I believe is the first 2024 participant to obtain a "green sheet" for his/her suite of picks, at least since we got deeper into the competition this year. No mean feat considering.
ronaldson
12-07-2024, 07:50 PM
Well you can't say the week lacked interest! Not least the drama around SML, but perhaps we have seen the first signs of a turn in sentiment? Not much money around, but less of a market funk too.
Exec is the new bridesmaid, while alokdhir has not only rejoined the Top 10 but also matched Bobdn with a green sheet of picks today. You need 11.25% to be in clover but Aquaman, Bobdn, Mad Goat keeper, Rawz and Leemsip are all above 9% and challenging for honours. Is Waiutu peaking at +21.6% and can What the Stock turn it around next week?
Wooden spoon is Gilberd, down 26 places, from OLD SURFER namechecked again for the wrong reason this time after a podium finish last week. Gold Medal belongs to Ratkin, up 27 places, from benk and LD_CHCH.
The professionals are starting to mix it more with the more prominant competitors. Forsyth Barr are up 15 places to a creditable 28th on the ladder and even Devon Funds who were below red 5% for quite a while are now into yellow figures.
You will all be relieved to know I probably won't comment next Friday as I will be in Melbourne with two young grandchildren for a family wedding the next day, so almost certainly too distracted. Feel free to post yourself if you can't bear the medallists missing out on their award or are salivating at the possibility of condemning the wooden spooner to his/her fate.
Good stuff Ronaldson. Enjoy the wedding!
ronaldson
16-07-2024, 10:45 AM
O my. This morning you need 2% more than you needed last Friday to be in the Top 10 but Mad Goat Keeper has pressed on with 13.23% to claim that spot.
And What the Stock has left those pastures altogether. Who would have thought that was even remotely possible over months and months earlier in the competition. First place seemed a foregone conclusion.
Volatility is the secret sauce in this competition. They say hope springs eternal so keep the faith everyone and your turn may come!
GFL is about to be delisted. Yesterday was its last trading day on NZX. JUSTASKPERCY and percy had GFL as main pick and as of today it was replaced by their backups MPG and OCA.
Also, as of today IFT's rights were added to calculations.
Bobdn
17-07-2024, 10:51 AM
US Small caps have entered the chat. Stay diversified, sisters.
ronaldson
17-07-2024, 03:06 PM
They say a rising tide lifts all boats. That seems to be the case currently, except for poor northcote who is a distant red lantern today.
But now you need 14.71% to be Top 10, and Mad Goat Keeper is milking his herd for all it is worth and now looms in 6th on the ladder. Exec led briefly but has resumed second place to Waiutu and the professionals are getting serious and positioning themselves to make a run.
I hope your portfolios are positive and benefitting from the current exuberance.
And well done to moose who is the third competitor to achieve a "green sheet" of picks, still no mean feat in the circumstances.
ronaldson
20-07-2024, 11:24 AM
Clearly I am addicted, posting again on the wedding day. Luckily it's at 4.00pm AU time. A good week thou with the market up a further 1.5%, so a lot of beneficiaries from the current rush of blood, not least those who picked BPG which rose 33% during that time.
Rawz chose that and has been propelled back into the Top 10, in 5th place and no doubt sure that is a rightful entitlement. Perhaps the bad news is that you now need 15.18% to be on one of those rungs of the ladder, a significant uplift from just a relatively short time ago. 64 competitors above zero, hence positive, is unprecedented for months now and even the professionals are on their bikes and starting to look dangerous. Poor Black Bull Research are attempting some redemption having been more than 20% in the red a while ago but now "just" 12%.
Gold Medal is silverblizzard.888 up 29 places, with JW invests and mwri trailing but on the podium. By contrast Peter li has been passed the woodenspoon which will be a relief to the previous holder. Two of the medalists had BPG so that is telling the tale, but a lot of competitors will be quietly pleased that the tide seems to have turned for OCA and HGH as they likely have them in their real portfolios too.
It's a long game here barely half over so there is obviously more to come. Chin up if you are still languishing and keep the faith.
Regards from Melbourne!
winner69
20-07-2024, 11:38 AM
Who would have thought that picking PEB CVT OCA SML BLT would put one in last place -35%
One might say if we invested today in all we’d make heaps
Sorry northcote
thegreatestben
20-07-2024, 11:54 AM
Didn't enter this year, would be close to the bottom if I had. Interesting to look at top performers, upper quartile etc. I've been putting my spare cash into Simplicity High Growth fund and that's hitting 17%, I've just hopped out and sunk that into OCA and HGH which has had good growth just his week. Will be interesting to tally up at COB when this comp is closed.
ronaldson
22-07-2024, 10:31 AM
Price action at the Open this morning (the market not the golf) will have a few looking at the next competition spreadsheet update!
ronaldson
22-07-2024, 12:47 PM
Wow. Some big moves on the ladder today.
cOOps has come from the clouds to be the new competition leader, up 24 places, along with Mrbuyit who has lifted a massive 35 places into 7th on the ladder. Both had ARV as one pick, together with OCA which, while not yet positive has certainly benefitted from its sister attracting attention.
The stage is well and truely set for an exciting week ahead. The action just shows how quickly your selections can move the dial and vindicate your competition choices.
Mrbuyit
22-07-2024, 12:57 PM
My picks are pretty much my portfolio, just missing USH, who would have thought the worst performer of the 5 would have been trusty old SPK.
ronaldson
23-07-2024, 02:59 AM
In golf circles they call it "moving day" and Monday was just massive for the sharetrader competition, with unprecedented changes on the ladder for a single daily session. The rise in retirement stocks, particularly ARV which was the subject of a private equity offer announcement, and sister OCA which benefitted from some of the gloss spilling over and which was frequently picked together with ARV in portfolios, meant many entrants were up sharply, and curiously there were others less fortunate who fell significantly too.
I decided to mark the occasion by nominating the podium finishers who achieved the record one day rises - Bubble has Gold up 63 places, Ratkin silver up 62 and Gotagiggle bronze up 57. At least another eight or nine folk were up 40 or more - outstanding. Bearing the brunt on the downside is poor clip who had just last week relinquished the woodenspoon so inevitably will be a serious contender again cum Friday this week, falling 29 places, with Ricky-bobby in relatively close attendance.
I bet page views on this thread were high yesterday, especially after the market closed. Quite a few will be reassessing their prospects, and the number positive overall is the most it has been for months! What will today bring!
ValueNZ
23-07-2024, 02:11 PM
Good to see Baa_Baa in first, congrats.
bulltrap
23-07-2024, 02:20 PM
It's been a stellar week so far, but my 'doggie bag' of picks are being outpaced, now back down to last place :ohmy:
Could go lower still, with MPG and PEB nearing binary outcomes with long odds.
My real portfolio is faring better, especially since I swapped my RAK+PEB for OCA+HGH with fortunate timing. But still in the red and waiting for that 'broke even' moment...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3imSKAvgmY&ab_channel=jakeape
ronaldson
23-07-2024, 02:41 PM
Not done yet today but movement continues. You need 18.22% to be Top 10, up over 7% in a remarkably short timeframe if you reread this thread.
Mrbuyit and carrom74 are still hanging in there but split now by MRS_CD_CHCH up a massive 52 places this week to now rest in 9th. Assuming female from the non de plume she clearly has family bragging rights over CD_CHCH and another entrant LD_CHCH. O to be at the dinner table tonight!
Waiuta has drifted marginally away to 5th and with What the stock showing no signs of imminent revival the leaderboard has a new look after 6 months of looking set to finish unchallanged up top. Actually it has become a dogfight up there.
Obviously there is more to come this week. Look to your laurels everyone.
ronaldson
24-07-2024, 07:37 PM
Another big day for some. Amazingly, you now need over 20% to be Top 10 clover.
Exec leads again after flirting there once before, so briefly it was hardly measureable. c00ps holds 2nd, while Mrbuyit and MRS_CD_CHCH are also the new admissions this week. Holding a place in the Top 10 is really difficult at the moment as it's volatile on the fringe, with hourly comings and goings just now.
In all 87 entrants are now positive, the most in recent times, showing that the market has spoken at last. I hope your real portfolios are showing signs of revival. Mine is.
Finally, a shout out to Scroogeus who was negative 22.58% at the end of June and today has achieved a positive number, albeit small but no doubt very sweet in the circumstances. Never lose hope!
ronaldson
25-07-2024, 05:54 PM
Another interesting day.
Congratulations to Cobra427 who has slipped in to the Top 10, at the expense of Rawz and also Mad Goat Keeper who have both been in and out of that status like yoyo's this week.
Aquaman has been challenging strongly, and is up to 3rd.
And is the question just now how many KFLWH's will be exercised by Friday? Not really relevant here I know, but there will definitely be some.
I noted that on 5 July I posted that this thread had received 86762 views. The total now is 109068 indicating just how much the current market price action has galvanised interest among participants, thanks to the brilliant spreadsheet format and regular updating produced by XP04.
aquaman
25-07-2024, 06:00 PM
It's not very often aquaman is not underwater so enjoying the ride. Appreciate the updates you provide and the brilliant spreadsheet.
ronaldson
25-07-2024, 09:44 PM
I looked at xp04's profile and it doesn't give a location, but if he is ever at the annual Auckland Sharetrader meeting I have been organising on a November Sunday at Oyster and Chop he will not lack for free drinks - that's for sure.
Apologies if a woman, but equally welcome on that occasion if you are!
ronaldson
26-07-2024, 03:50 PM
O my goodness. You now need 22.58% to be top 10 today! What the stock is almost out of sight in 26th, Waiuta has drifted away to 9th. What happened?
Perky is a new entrant, in 7th place (where he was on 29 February before disappearing to as low as 50th). It's very bouncy around the fringe. Rawz is currently clinging to 10th place but it changes hourly.
Lots going on this week! As usual we will have to wait and see. Someone could run a book on the ultimate outcome from this point. What are your odds?
ronaldson
26-07-2024, 08:46 PM
And just like that the week is over, perhaps the most significant in the competition so far.
New entrants to the Top 10 include c00ps in 2nd, Cobra427 in 3rd, Aquaman in 4th and Perky in 6th. Quite a change! I noted 6 of the Top 10 have TWR as a selection. A little behind but challenging are Barnee, who has the Gold medal up an incredible 109 places into 20th, with Seadog taking silver up 72 to 21st and Bubble bronze up 63 trailing just a little. The first two had IKE in common, which had a particularly good week.
Wooden spoon is Ricky_bobby down 40 places, beating out Prestige_worldwide falling a mere 37. clip has been saved from ignomy this time, thank goodness.
KFL closed at $1.28. Did that salvage some warrants or did everyone who wanted any head shares buy earlier when they were clearly too cheap. Apparently Beagle loaded up a few days ago when they were sub $1.20. Very astute.
The olympics are underway now so that will be a distraction for many over the next fortnight. Fingers crossed and best wishes for all kiwi competitors.
I looked at xp04's profile and it doesn't give a location, but if he is ever at the annual Auckland Sharetrader meeting I have been organising on a November Sunday at Oyster and Chop he will not lack for free drinks - that's for sure.
Apologies if a woman, but equally welcome on that occasion if you are!
Thank you Ronaldson, it's very kind of you. But must say without your regular comments, which I greatly enjoy, the competition wouldn't look so colorful.
PS. Are you sure about free drinks? You know, it might happen that I will accept the invitation :)
ronaldson
31-07-2024, 08:41 AM
Thank you Ronaldson, it's very kind of you. But must say without your regular comments, which I greatly enjoy, the competition wouldn't look so colorful.
PS. Are you sure about free drinks? You know, it might happen that I will accept the invitation :)
I'm sure and will take personal responsibility. And very likely not the only one to applaud your efforts.
We even had Oliver attend last year! And a couple of my best trades in 2024 were underpinned by the comments of others on that occasion. I certainly didn't start these annual soirees, but am intent on establishing a tradition at the venue for those enabled to participate.
I will post a seperate thread regarding the event in due course as usual.
ronaldson
31-07-2024, 08:11 PM
July is all over and what a month it has proved to be.
After looking unassailable at the top of the ladder with six consecutive picket fence finishes from January to June What the stock has flagged, dropping off the pace to 27th - not out of it by any means but a lot of hard work needed from there. And Waiuta, after five consecutive months in 2nd place has failed to capitalise, falling instead to 9th.
Exec has stormed forward to grab the honour, after knocking for quite a while, and being in and out of 1st for days now. And a shout out to Cobra427, who also did lead very briefly but is now 5th on an amazing +26.17% considering at the end of June he/she was negative 5.45% - a more than 30% turnaround! It seems IKE and ARV overachieved for that competitor.
Rawz is back in the top 10, just, at the expense this week of Mad Goat Keeper. MrBuyit continues to lurk close up to keep everyone honest. This event is a long game so everyone should still have hope your investment thesis will play out as the remaining months pass.
A slight value / qty problem to be adjusted for with GEN - following the recent 1 for 4 Consolidation - XP ?
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435236
On Monday, 29 July 2024 General Capital Limited (“GEN”) announced that it will undertake a share consolidation.
Shareholders will receive one GEN ordinary share for every 4 GEN ordinary shares held at 5pm on the Record Date of Friday, 2 August 2024.
A slight value / qty problem to be adjusted for with GEN - following the recent 1 for 4 Consolidation - XP ?
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/435236
Yep, just fixed it. They supposed to do it after Friday close.
Ronaldson goes top by $96.22 :cool:
ronaldson
02-08-2024, 06:01 PM
OMG the week is done and modesty precludes me from pointing out who now leads the competition on 29.93%, almost cracking the magic 30%, despite being in 90th place at the end of January. Exec is the immediate challenger on 28.40% and Top 10 clover still needs 23.33% to qualify. But the tide has turned as 86 are in genuine green numbers whilst only 59 are in the Labour red colour. The rest have taken cover in no mans land!
mrwi has the Gold Medal, up 31 places with podium finishes to JUSTASKPERCY and ynot respectively. Poor Sausagedog has the wooden spoon down 27 from rrr who avoided the responsibility down 23.
Hamilton Hindin Green are back in front for the professionals on 8.29% just ahead of Forsyth Barr on 7.92%. A real Crusaders v Highlanders match up. Who are the South Is competitors rooting for? Or perhaps they are just enjoying dominance over we poor North Islanders? Both Nikko Asset Management and Devon Funds are still in it, but Black Bull Research have apparently failed to qualify this year.
A down trading day to finish the week will have dampened spirits but that's just how it is sometimes. The Market giveth and the Market taketh away!
Have a good weekend everyone. Next week will come and go as always. We will have to wait and see.
Bobdn
02-08-2024, 06:55 PM
You're number 1! Well done, man.
My only hope is a collapse in the world economy, which hits NZ particularly hard and there's a rush to the USD as a safe haven currency. Or some such sh*t. I'd do better in the competition but be personally a lot poorer. Hmm, tough one.
ronaldson
09-08-2024, 07:31 PM
Another week done and when the market trades again on Monday the Olympics will be over. Let's see who medalled this time.
Gold goes to Prestige-worldwide up a remarkable 38 places, with Buster in silver scoring 35 and benk on the podium up 23. Those who made up the quinella had VGL as a portfolio pick, which had a massive week and finished up 22c just today alone, closing at $2.87. It was only on 27 May that Portentia announced it had picked up almost 20% of VGL at $2.10, in turn a significant sum above previous trading. What a well timed entry to a stock now in a sharp uptrend!
JIMMYPAIN is feeling it more than most, taking the woodenspoon down 16 places, with ecuttel on 15 and Grimy on 14 in close attendance.
A place in the Top 10 needs over 20% again, with the leader on 32.05% and over 4.5% ahead of Exec with Rawz in third.
Many of you will have noticed my post on the VGL thread on 27 May that I chose to exit my holding after much thought at the then market close of $2.10. Just proves you can over think a situation, despite that yeilding a tidy profit then but well over $16k less than was available today which is only about 10 weeks later. There is a lot to be said for the simple "Buy and Hold" mantra. Success in the Competion clearly doesn't really equate with market nous!
Hoping NZ still has some successes to come in Paris. I have enjoyed watching each evening, particularly the Athletics and Cycling but each to their own as plenty of choice.
Dlownz
11-08-2024, 02:44 PM
Another week done and when the market trades again on Monday the Olympics will be over. Let's see who medalled this time.
Gold goes to Prestige-worldwide up a remarkable 38 places, with Buster in silver scoring 35 and benk on the podium up 23. Those who made up the quinella had VGL as a portfolio pick, which had a massive week and finished up 22c just today alone, closing at $2.87. It was only on 27 May that Portentia announced it had picked up almost 20% of VGL at $2.10, in turn a significant sum above previous trading. What a well timed entry to a stock now in a sharp uptrend!
JIMMYPAIN is feeling it more than most, taking the woodenspoon down 16 places, with ecuttel on 15 and Grimy on 14 in close attendance.
A place in the Top 10 needs over 20% again, with the leader on 32.05% and over 4.5% ahead of Exec with Rawz in third.
Many of you will have noticed my post on the VGL thread on 27 May that I chose to exit my holding after much thought at the then market close of $2.10. Just proves you can over think a situation, despite that yeilding a tidy profit then but well over $16k less than was available today which is only about 10 weeks later. There is a lot to be said for the simple "Buy and Hold" mantra. Success in the Competion clearly doesn't really equate with market nous!
Hoping NZ still has some successes to come in Paris. I have enjoyed watching each evening, particularly the Athletics and Cycling but each to their own as plenty of choice.
Its certainly a hard one to swallow at ronaldson 😢. Hindsight is always a wonderful thing. The number of times I've thought shares are on their way up but slip back over and over again then when yourve had enough you sell only to see it skyrocket. Very frustrating. Akways seems to be the case. We may see company's as great value and know they are good but untill the big corporate funds jump in they don't go anywhere. This one being the case again. Learn more all the time. Stop catching things falling. Wait till it starts climbing. Sacfrice a small gain early for a longer term gain 😊. Tower being the latest
ronaldson
13-08-2024, 02:32 PM
Keep an eye on the fascinating battle between Hamilton Hindin Green and Forsyth Barr for the professionals medal, as it continues to rage. Curiously there is no cross-over of picks in their selections, but they are neck and neck despite that.
And congratulations to Felix who has returned to Top 10 glory after exiting that status in early May. The usual suspects are fairly well entrenched at the top, although the exact order can be changeable.
The competition leader is at the all time high for the year, almost 36% and just about 7% ahead of Exec as the next best, reminiscent of What the stock's dominance before he/she was summarily dethroned not that long ago and consigned to outer darkness. Anything can happen in this Competition and no one is secure as the Market ebbs and flows, and who knows what will happen on Wednesday let alone over the remainder of the month/year.
Keep the faith everyone.
ronaldson
14-08-2024, 07:36 PM
OCR reduced by 0.25% this afternoon has encouraged a 2.06% daily rise in the NZX index.
Quite a few have increased their numbers in the Competition (or reduced their deficit if that is the case), although positive price movement more or less across the board has meant exchange of places up/down has tended to be muted. I hope your own portfolios have benefitted.
Let us hope this holds to the Friday close, when I will post as usual, but this is likely the green shoot we have all been waiting for!
ronaldson
16-08-2024, 09:57 PM
The 30% barrier has been well and truly breached this week by the top three, and you now need 24.63% to be in the Top 10. They say a rising tide lifts all boats and with the NZX50 index up 4% for the week many players will be feeling much happier about their performance. I looked and 108 are now positive, I believe the most since January. Someone born under the ticker code ORR finally delivered some relief to the hard pressed masses and the market responded.
Hamilton Hindin Green now definitely have the wood on Forsyth Barr, by over 1.5%, and Nikko Asset Management are coming up to challenge. Among we plebs Sausagedog took out the Gold Medal, up 25 places with BigBob up 22 and our resident football fan AVillianFC took Bronze on 21. I doubt even third place in the Premier League is available this season but we shall see.
Poor benk, down 28, took the woodenspoon from Man123 and percy both some way back. I don't know how benk slipped so far in the circumstances but for every competitor who rises a place someone must respond by falling, a bit like the market requires every buyer to have a seller.
A new reporting season commences next week so more fun and games are possible. Perhaps the real bargains are already being snapped up by the more astute among us, but the confessions we are about to receive follow upon difficult economic times so it may still be the darkness before the dawn in that regard. And how many have "readies" on hand to take advantage anyway?
Stay safe everyone and concentrate upon living a little longer so as to learn how it is!
SausageDog
17-08-2024, 01:48 PM
Whooo Hoo a gold medal ! I rather be up in the top 10 , I really enjoy your commentary ronaldson. Thanks
ronaldson
19-08-2024, 12:13 PM
Hey Rawz - We now have the quinella! I wonder for how long?
And mrwi and Tonyh are new entrants to the Top 10. Tonyh was 145th after January and still -3% at the end of June and has now reached clover, up over 23%. Remarkable. Did MFB have something to do with it?
New blood on the leaderboard is always exciting.
Hey Rawz - We now have the quinella! I wonder for how long?
And mrwi and Tonyh are new entrants to the Top 10. Tonyh was 145th after January and still -3% at the end of June and has now reached clover, up over 23%. Remarkable. Did MFB have something to do with it?
New blood on the leaderboard is always exciting.
How good. Still plenty of water to go under the bridge thou....
ronaldson
20-08-2024, 10:46 AM
How good. Still plenty of water to go under the bridge thou....
Yes, in fact done by the first morning update today. Congratulations to Aquaman who has now reached second and Exec who is toughing it out in third.
And kiora who is a new entrant to the Top 10 and already up heaps for the week.
ronaldson
20-08-2024, 12:26 PM
Some big turn around numbers being posted in the competition so far this week, especially by those with MFB included in their picks. And silverblizzard.888 has rushed to prominance in 14th, up a massive 41 places already courtesy of having both MFB and BPG among his/her selections.
And Rawz just won't lie down and has taken less than 2 hours to be back up to second place. The Top 10 is a real dog fight just now.
Nikko Asset Management has surged past Forsyth Barr in the professionals race and has set out after Hamilton Hindin Green. ForBar won't be happy about that will they! More to come as the market receives further confessions. MCY got hammered didn't they, despite a (muted) dividend increase.
ronaldson
20-08-2024, 06:00 PM
Rawz is in front in the Competition! Like a King who has lost his crown I have been dethroned, and in broad daylight too!
Much has happened, but the big winner is silverblizzard.888 now up 46 places this week to 9th and Top 10 clover at last. You need over 26% now to emulate that feat, and the first five are over 30% which was previously unprecedented.
kiora was in briefly then out, but will be champing at the bit to return. And even poor northcote who seemed destined to be the red lantern forevermore this year is no longer so, having handed over to TJ1.
The page views continue to rise majorly, indicating there are many following events as they unfold on the thread. Good luck to everyone as it is far from clear who will finish with bragging rights. It could even be you!
ronaldson
22-08-2024, 02:34 PM
Definitely a lot happening already this week. The BPG moonshot has returned to earth orbit, and while Rawz has definitely not crashed and burned as a result he survives somewhat dimished at the top, with Aquaman and Exec hard on heels and challenging strongly. Silverblizzard.888 has reverted to 8th on the ladder, but still up an incredible 47 places so far. kiora, Tonyh and mwri are the other new blood in the top 10.
Gilberd is the early contender for the Gold Medal this time, up 59 places from -4.57% at the end of July to a current +18.65% in barely three weeks. SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT (I still think this could be "beagle", who incidently has a new rescue dog to dote on) up 49 and ralph and habits, both up 45, are looking for podium finishes, while hamish seems most at risk of being gifted a woodenspoon for his efforts. But still water to flow under the bridge before the actual awards are announced after the market closes on Friday.
Much changing of the guard is occurring as the various competitor thesis play out, as they should given the 12 month timeframe. Bragging rights are still up for grabs for most, with many more now in the green pastures than in the Labour red numbers. Go for it everyone!
ronaldson
23-08-2024, 09:38 PM
A critical week in the competition with a lot of risk on the downside for some given the weakness evident in several of the confessions offered up for public consumption. Regardless, Rawz, now on 37.51%, has fought like a tiger to retain the top dog status claimed quickly at the beginning of the week from yours truly, as Aquaman, Exec and silverblizzard.888 engaged in an ongoing tooth and claw struggle to overturn that result. To illustrate how hard the battle rages we can see Waiuta, who not so long ago had five month end second place finishes, is now 38th on the ladder and What the stock with six consecutive picket fence placings in HY24 has slipped away to 46th.
Gold medal goes to Gilberd this week up 58 places with SUBURBAN ACCOUNTANT and silverblizzard.888 contending strongly up 51 for the remaining podium finishes. Sausagedog followed up last weeks Gold with another significant rise, up 41 this time, and may genuinely feel he/she is in with a hope. By contrast Jimmy61 will be disappointed with the woodenspoon award, down 38, narrowly from stones and hamish.
The red lantern is still held by TJ1 but pauljc is the one now dangerously close to taking that dubious honour. Hamilton Hindin Green still lead the professionals race, in 40th position on 15.32%, from ForBar and Nikko Asset Management in 74th and 75th respectively. Devon are in credit by a very fine margin, but poor Black Bull Research are a long way back and obviously took a wrong turn somewhere.
Felix and Sylvester Cat are challenging to enter the elite Top 10 and given the current volatility must be in with a chance to do so next week when the market will have more results announcements to digest.
SPK and IFL (ASX) delivered significant hits to my real portfolio this week so I hope you all fared better. At least some holdings are now cum dividend, which should keep my bank account out of overdraft in due course.
Good luck to everyone and may the market be with you!
PS This post is number 1000 for me, although that number will change higher if I comment again. But a milestone nevertheless. I encourage all our "guests" who read these threads but do not post to consider doing so. The more opinions expressed and/or tidbits of knowledge passed on the more value is inherent in the Forum being available.
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