HMY - Harmoney Corp Limited

[clearasmud]

Almost 50% gain in 5 days is always good.

Disc hold
They are targeting 20% roe run rate in fy2025.
5c dividend in 2026?

[dabsman]

I wouldnt support a dividend payment but if they wanna give me money I wouldnt say no

[percy]

Crikey..
Do not know why the share price has lifted,but about time.....lol.

[thegreatestben]

Still way under for me but love to see it.

[Muse]

Crikey..
Do not know why the share price has lifted,but about time.....lol.

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

DATAROOM
Global investors sniffing around non-bank lenders (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/global-investors-sniffing-around-nonbank-lenders/news-story/030a5c97b9b46420703635f6deedc9a8)
International private equity groups have been swooping on the Australian market of late, eager to understand the merits of buying a listed non-bank lender.

By BRIDGET CARTER

[percy]

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

DATAROOM
Global investors sniffing around non-bank lenders (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/global-investors-sniffing-around-nonbank-lenders/news-story/030a5c97b9b46420703635f6deedc9a8)
International private equity groups have been swooping on the Australian market of late, eager to understand the merits of buying a listed non-bank lender.

By BRIDGET CARTER


Thanks for the heads up.

[ralph]

Or maybe someone's had a sneak peek at the earnings report coming out later this month percy.

[Greekwatchdog]

This from For Bar this morning.

Harmoney Corp (HMY.AX) is Australasia's largest online direct personal lender. Its innovative online lending platform utilises comprehensive data insights, AI and machine learning to price and approve loans automatically, providing accessible and efficient financing at competitive rates. HMY's disruptive tech-driven platform, and its recently completed transition from a peer-to-peer platform to a diversified funding structure, position it well for growth as we approach an inflection point in the economic cycle, with interest rates set to decline. We expect HMY to capture market share from slow-moving and constrained incumbents in the significant ~A$159bn Australasian personal lending market, aided by the rollout of its Stellare® 2.0 lending platform opening new market segments and driving greater user conversion. Given its highly scalable tech platform, we are excited by the potential for HMY to generate significant operating leverage as it grows its loan book, driving the cost-to-income ratio down from an already impressive ~24% to ~17% by FY34. Near-term economic weakness presents a headwind for HMY, and we forecast a contraction in cash profit to A$0.9m in FY24 and a normalised loss of -A$3.3m (see Appendix 1: Explaining ‘normalised’ and ‘cash’ NPAT). However, we are attracted to the long-term growth potential and operating leverage opportunity, reflected in our spot valuation of A$1.27.
link


NZX Code
HMY


Share price
A$0.59


Spot Valuation
A$1.27


Risk rating
High


Issued shares
102.0m


Market cap
A$59.6m


Avg daily turnover
37.1k (A$16k)






link


Financials: Jun/
23A
24E
25E
26E


Rev (A$m)
105.5
123.2
135.4
156.1


NPAT* (A$m)
0.2
(3.3)
1.9
8.2


EPS* (Ac)
0.2
(3.2)
1.9
8.1


DPS (Ac)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0


Imputation (%)
0
0
0
0




*Based on normalised profits







link


Valuation (x)
23A
24E
25E
26E


PE
n/a
n/a
30.8
7.2


EV/EBIT
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a


EV/EBITDA
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a


Price / NTA
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6


Cash div yld (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0


Gross div yld (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0











Laying the platform for the next stage of growth
Founded in NZ in 2013, HMY has since expanded into Australia and completed a transition to a diversified funding structure. Integrating technology into the direct-to-consumer model has streamlined processes, reduced operational costs, and driven efficiencies. Since its 2020 ASX IPO, HMY has grown its loan book to A$756m. With its funding model and next-generation lending platform, Stellare® 2.0, launching into the market, HMY is poised for continued growth over the next decade.

Navigating a path to best in sector returns after a challenging macroenvironment
HMY is on a trajectory of growth and increasing core profitability. However, rising interest rates have dampened borrower demand and a lift in incurred losses is likely to squeeze margins this year. Expansion of the loan book, technical innovation, and a discernible cost-to-income ratio reduction exemplify the company's drive for operational efficiency, sustainable long-term ROE, and growth.

[Forrestdun]

$1.27 would be very nice

[nztx]

$1.27 would be very nice


might be a long wait :)

[Forrestdun]

Are you saying it also might not :p to the moon?

[percy]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02768185-2A1502349

[thegreatestben]

Percy, were you meaning to post the Appendix 4D just published?
https://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20240223/02776205.pdf?uid=72103DEC05D3116E7152BBBE566A9E75C A6400006BD7986F4F24E640093D250091850000&ppv=

[percy]

Percy, were you meaning to post the Appendix 4D just published?
https://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20240223/02776205.pdf?uid=72103DEC05D3116E7152BBBE566A9E75C A6400006BD7986F4F24E640093D250091850000&ppv=

Yes I was.Thanks for posting it.
Here is their result presentation.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02776305-2A1506899

[thegreatestben]

Was stuck in meetings all morning but pleased to see positive news.

[thegreatestben]

Did anyone attend the presentation?
Was there any further discussion around possible offerings? Referring to page 24

"New potential financial products (e.g. line of credit, credit cards, homeloans)"
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[Rawz]

Management seem to be running the business well. expenses are under control.
The book growth is moderated on purpose in these tough times.

Only another $100m or so book growth and profits will flow nicely.

IMO once rates start to fall and we get through the recession HMY should put the loan book growth boosters back on to get it over $1b. Dont worry about acquisition costs and the bottom line. Just keep growing.

I sold out at a big loss awhile ago but keen to get back on the train again one day. Maybe once i exit some FND at over $3sp i put some here :cool:

[winner69]

HMY and HUM together on watchlist ….must have forgotten to take HUM off

I always wonder who might get to $1 first …..if ever

[Greekwatchdog]

HMY and HUM together on watchlist ….must have forgotten to take HUM off

I always wonder who might get to $1 first …..if ever

Along way from $3.70 a share when it IPO'd

[winner69]

Along way from $3.70 a share when it IPO'd


HUM as good as HMY in that respect eh

[Greekwatchdog]

HUM as good as HMY in that respect eh

Don't follow HUM but will take you word for it, so yes. One wonders if those who paid the IPO price are still holding....

[nztx]

HUM as good as HMY in that respect eh


You missed MFG :)

[winner69]

HRM share price back down to 44 something

Struggles to stay over 50 cents eh

Last trade on NZX was 77 …….lots happened since

[dabsman]

Volume is so small it moves around a lot. Anything close to 40c is exceptional buying I reckon

[Forrestdun]

Quarterly results out
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02801889-2A1520466

[Rawz]

Looks all good. Still a battle with margins (NIM).

One to watch and pile into when rates start dropping?

[Dlownz]

I couldn't help myself yesterday and brought a few more But it could drop to 30cents. Hmy has a pattern of hitting a low point around 22nd June then a rise 1 month later. 3 years running. Will this year be any different 😁. This next results I'm really hoping will get things moving. I am down on this one but vista has certainly helped 😂

[nztx]

I couldn't help myself yesterday and brought a few more But it could drop to 30cents. Hmy has a pattern of hitting a low point around 22nd June then a rise 1 month later. 3 years running. Will this year be any different ��. This next results I'm really hoping will get things moving. I am down on this one but vista has certainly helped ��

Did you see what your attention did to the SP ? :)

[Dlownz]

Did you see what your attention did to the SP ? :)

Just a little good timing averaging around 36 mark. But I still think it can drop back abit. It's been awhile since I last dipped my toes in at 31cents and since then I've watched it go up and down quite a bit 😂.

[nztx]

Just a little good timing averaging around 36 mark. But I still think it can drop back abit. It's been awhile since I last dipped my toes in at 31cents and since then I've watched it go up and down quite a bit ��.


Bad Debts might be an issue

[Dlownz]

Bad Debts might be an issue
That can always be a concern with any finance company. Yes it has ticked up but still reasonably good concidering

[nztx]

That can always be a concern with any finance company. Yes it has ticked up but still reasonably good concidering


Co-op Bank defaults up 10% - I would say HMY would be more exposed to defaults

[percy]

A pleasant surprise was GEN's General Capital result.
Both losses and arrears were well down.
Credit Losses 0.35% 0.70% -50%
Arrears 0.74% 11.61% -94%

Harmoney's update 1st May;
Credit loss % improves from first half 2024, down 10bps to 4.1%, as newer Australian
scorecard forms a larger percentage of the loan book.

[nztx]

Just a little good timing averaging around 36 mark. But I still think it can drop back abit. It's been awhile since I last dipped my toes in at 31cents and since then I've watched it go up and down quite a bit 😂.


might be a chance for another nibble soon

[Dlownz]

I'm happy with what I got. For now...... 😁

[nztx]

I'm happy with what I got. For now...... ��


Okay .. don't say I didn't offer :)

[Dlownz]

Okay .. don't say I didn't offer :)
Lol thanks for looking out for me 😂
There should be nibbles available through the month of June. But I just didn't want to wait. Saw my chance and took it. 😊

[nztx]

Lol thanks for looking out for me ��
There should be nibbles available through the month of June. But I just didn't want to wait. Saw my chance and took it. ��


you might have to whistle more quietly in future .. see what happened ? :)

[Dlownz]

you might have to whistle more quietly in future .. see what happened ? :)

No didn't see what happened. Have I missed something?
Everything's sitting where I last left it 😊

[nztx]

No didn't see what happened. Have I missed something?
Everything's sitting where I last left it ��


Off again 5 Jun - must be some muttering going on out the back ;)

[percy]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02814948-2A1527514

[nztx]

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02814948-2A1527514


Cash NPAT - Down in most recent 2024 Half

Tightening Interest margins

Credit Losses UP over 3 periods

What will further tightening times bring ?

It might be some time before smell of a Div surfaces

[Dlownz]

Cash NPAT - Down in most recent 2024 Half

Tightening Interest margins

Credit Losses UP over 3 periods

What will further tightening times bring ?

It might be some time before smell of a Div surfaces

Nztx. Come on you should know this company better. I don't see them ever paying a dividend. Keep reinvesting that money. Less money needed fro. The bank a greater return. You seem a little negative on this one. But it reached bottom. Just need ms to get off the floor and stay off. It's coming I'm telling you 😁.
Haven't seen rawz on here wonder if he still holding

[Rawz]

Nztx. Come on you should know this company better. I don't see them ever paying a dividend. Keep reinvesting that money. Less money needed fro. The bank a greater return. You seem a little negative on this one. But it reached bottom. Just need ms to get off the floor and stay off. It's coming I'm telling you .
Haven't seen rawz on here wonder if he still holding

I sold out to buy 2CC.

I still follow and read each update.

HMY need to make statutory NPATs in these dark days, thats the only way the market will get excited. Its hard for HMY because the customer acquisition costs are quite high, even though the repeat business is free, the market cant see past this.

One to watch

[Dlownz]

I sold out to buy 2CC.

I still follow and read each update.

HMY need to make statutory NPATs in these dark days, thats the only way the market will get excited. Its hard for HMY because the customer acquisition costs are quite high, even though the repeat business is free, the market cant see past this.

One to watch

Fair enough.
I'm sitting on this one.
Taking my time on things a bit more these days. Vista was another good one when started getting into it in Jan 23. Watched it go up and down a few times before it really kicked into gear. Hmys certainly taking longer but I know it's coming.

[Rawz]

Fair enough.
I'm sitting on this one.
Taking my time on things a bit more these days. Vista was another good one when started getting into it in Jan 23. Watched it go up and down a few times before it really kicked into gear. Hmys certainly taking longer but I know it's coming.

HMY will go really well when we come out of this cycle.

NIM will go back to the 10%+ range and impairments will drop substantially. FY26 onwards the profits will grow steadily and then it should re-rate towards $1

[Rawz]

HMY will go really well when we come out of this cycle.

NIM will go back to the 10%+ range and impairments will drop substantially. FY26 onwards the profits will grow steadily and then it should re-rate towards $1
just replying to this in case i delete it

[Tony Two Gloves]

Tend to agree, looks well placed to perform when rates start to decrease. Getting their marketing costs under control slowly and I think this will easily hit $1.00 again but I really think it may be the end of 2025. Have been accumulating over the last few months and now have a bag full so the waiting game commences.....