Geo Political Risk [Archive] - Page 2

greater fool

23-09-2020, 08:44 PM

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3101973/us-navy-build-plans-may-cement-chinas-resolve-modernise

"the risks of naval confrontation between the two countries are increasing, because the ‘freedom of navigation’ appeal by the US is in essence to maintain its own hegemonic status and, in this sense, Washington is destined to clamp down on every Chinese move that will help the Chinese naval capability build up,”

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3048967/us-freedom-navigation-patrols-south-china-sea-hit-record-high

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/navy-warships-conduct-back-to-back-freedom-of-navigation-operations-in-south-china-sea-1.627890

https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/south-china-sea-us-littoral-combat-ship-conducts-freedom-of-navigation-operation/

https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/us-conducts-freedom-of-navigation-operation-near-china-held-features-in-spratlys/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-china-southchinasea-pm/australia-to-continue-to-support-freedomof-navigation-in-south-china-sea-pm-says-idUSKCN24H0D5

South China Sea - fear of the loss of hegemony.
Freedom of Navigation excercises were used in the Persian Gulf.
The USS Stark and USS Vincennes were able to "expose" National Security challenges.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Vincennes_(CG-49)
"dispatched to the Persian Gulf in 1988 in support of Operation Earnest Will during the Iran–Iraq War. Operating in this capacity the
cruiser shot down Iran Air Flight 655 over the Persian Gulf, killing 290 passengers and sparking an international incident between
Iran and the United States."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Stark_incident
"The USS Stark incident occurred during the Iran–Iraq War on 17 May 1987, when an Iraqi jet aircraft fired two Exocet missiles at
the American frigate USS Stark. A total of thirty-seven United States Navy personnel were killed or later died as a result of the attack,
and twenty-one were injured........................................... ..
Washington used the incident to pressure Iran, which it later blamed for the whole situation. President Reagan said "We've never
considered them [Iraq's military] hostile at all", and "the villain in the piece is Iran".[7][8][9]"

Freedom of Navigation exercises in South China Sea now risk a 'Gulf of Tonkin' incident.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Gulf-of-Tonkin-incident

https://www.smh.com.au/national/echoes-of-pearl-harbour-in-latest-us-moves-on-china-20200913-p55v4s.html

At the end of WWII America was at it's peak in warfaring. They tried to move on a weak China, weakened by its
civil war, by attacking through Korea. America got a bloody nose for their efforts.

https://koreanwarlegacy.org/chapters/north-toward-the-yalu-river/

The USA play book is rather thin. Another replay of the Persian Gulf 'Operation Earnest Will"
coming up?

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/pompeo-threatens-to-light-the-fuse-in-persian-gulf/

Davexl

23-09-2020, 09:13 PM

Australia as collateral damage vs NZ's smarter game...food for thought...

Morrison digging a grave for Australia

By yielding to US pressure to antagonize China, Australia risks being buried alive

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/morrison-digging-a-grave-for-australia/

Davexl

23-09-2020, 09:23 PM

Perhaps this time, Duterte has finally figured out who he wants to side with...!

"Philippines' Duterte gets tough on China in shift back toward U.S."
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/23/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-china-us/

Davexl

23-09-2020, 09:40 PM

Indonesia president warns over super-power tensions in U.N. address

https://www.reuters.com/article/un-assembly-indonesia/indonesia-president-warns-over-super-power-tensions-in-u-n-address-idUSKCN26E0GP

Jokowi said the coronavirus pandemic was a time for global unity.

“What we see, instead, is one of deep division and growing rivalries,” he said.
“If division and rivalries continue to persist, then I am concerned that the pillars of stability and sustainable peace will crumble or even (be) destroyed.”

GTM 3442

25-09-2020, 08:41 PM

Start at the bottom and work your way up?

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/09/foreign-hackers-cripple-texas-countys-email-system-raising-election-security-concerns/168749/

Davexl

29-09-2020, 04:31 PM

Resembling something closer to the truth concerning the US and its total failings since Trump...

"America’s global prestige on life support "

https://asiatimes.com/2020/09/americas-global-prestige-on-life-support/

Davexl

29-09-2020, 04:57 PM

Who will step up and lead in the Pacific on the global stage between the US & China?
Will it finally be Japan?

As U.S. and China squabble at U.N., a plea — and warning — from Micronesia

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/27/asia-pacific/us-china-un-micronesia/ (http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/09/27/asia-pacific/us-china-un-micronesia/)

“A lot of the U.N.’s members think the U.S. is destructive and China is power-hungry.
They don’t find either very appealing,” he said.

“Ambitious Europeans like (French President Emmanuel) Macron see a chance
to fill the leadership gap, so they are willing to challenge Beijing and Washington.”

Davexl

05-10-2020, 12:20 PM

Marilyn Munroe

05-10-2020, 12:42 PM

Ren Zhiqiang - who called Chinese president a 'clown' - jailed for 18 years

A relevant quotation from Winston Churchill;

“You see these dictators on their pedestals, surrounded by the bayonets of their soldiers and the truncheons of their police ... yet in their hearts there is unspoken fear. They are afraid of words and thoughts: words spoken abroad, thoughts stirring at home -- all the more powerful because forbidden -- terrify them. A little mouse of thought appears in the room, and even the mightiest potentates are thrown into panic.”

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Davexl

05-10-2020, 02:31 PM

A relevant quotation from Winston Churchill;

“You see these dictators on their pedestals, surrounded by the bayonets of their soldiers and the truncheons of their police ... yet in their hearts there is unspoken fear. They are afraid of words and thoughts: words spoken abroad, thoughts stirring at home -- all the more powerful because forbidden -- terrify them. A little mouse of thought appears in the room, and even the mightiest potentates are thrown into panic.”

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

I know it is a quotation from Winston Churchill no less, but I recently wonder if the pen is indeed mightier than the sword...

Perhaps the seeds of freedom accompanying the capitalist system will yet set the world to rights, but it seems
that at least the capitalist system "with Chinese characteristics" will give the West a run for its money...

What concerns me greatly is what the technology world will leverage itself off. Which system shall prevail with the
newfound tools of AI and the likes of 5G in war and in peace, in the politics, cyber-space and space realms to come,
except, it is already here...

Davexl

06-10-2020, 10:35 AM

Cynical or sincere? Perhaps looking towards a Biden Presidency?

"Beijing changes tactics on Australia, looks to 'reset' diplomacy"

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beijing-changes-tactics-on-australia-looks-to-reset-diplomacy-20201005-p5624f.html

GTM 3442

10-10-2020, 12:36 AM

I suppose if we have to talk about China, we might as well talk about China talking. . .

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/chinese-discourse-power/

GTM 3442

10-10-2020, 12:38 AM

Something to keep in the back of your mind...

War in the Caucasus will spread to Russia and Turkeyhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/10/04/commentary/world-commentary/war-caucasus-russia-turkey/

More likely, if Turkey an Russia decide to have a war, they will decide to have it in the Caucasus.

Norwest

10-10-2020, 11:07 AM

More likely, if Turkey an Russia decide to have a war, they will decide to have it in the Caucasus.

Erdogan is all bluster, secretly he'll be begging Putin to not intervene.

Have a look at the media coverage of Russian submarines, warships and Tu bombers decimating Syria with modern ground hugging cruise missiles from both the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas.

It wouldn't be a war, it would be a Turkey shoot, literally.

Davexl

10-10-2020, 04:42 PM

Just imagine, Turkey's Russian S-400s shooting down Russian Migs ? or perhaps only by their F16's

"Russia checkmates Turkey on Caucasus chessboard" (for now)...

Turkey's military aid to Azerbaijan is approaching a red line that could put it on a collision course with Russia

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/russia-checkmates-turkey-on-caucasus-chessboard/

Davexl

10-10-2020, 05:08 PM

And the plot gets way more thicker and more intertwined...

Turkey, Russia entente under fire in Nagorno-Karabakh

Russia and the West have rare opportunity to corner Turkey in a 'Caucasian chalk circle' of chaos and chance

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/turkey-russia-entente-under-fire-in-nagorno-karabakh/ (https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/turkey-russia-entente-under-fire-in-nagorno-karabakh/)

Davexl

10-10-2020, 05:49 PM

Japan sends three vessels to South China Sea in anti-submarine exercisehttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/10/national/japan-south-china-sea-military/

Davexl

10-10-2020, 05:52 PM

A bit more detail on the John S. McCain...(delete your cookie for japantimes.co.jp)

China sends vessels, planes as U.S. warship sails near South China Sea islands

https://China sends vessels, planes as U.S. warship sails near South China Sea islands (http://China sends vessels, planes as U.S. warship sails near South China Sea islands)

Davexl

10-10-2020, 05:59 PM

Apparently Trump is off his meds now...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/09/us/trump-vs-biden

Watch for withdrawal (downer) symptoms from his recent steroid habit...

Even grumpier than usual about his implied (Pelosi) (in)sanity checks!!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/09/donald-trump-fitness-to-serve-commission-democrats-nancy-pelosi

GTM 3442

11-10-2020, 08:59 PM

An earnest appraisal of the re-orientation of the international order. . . now that America's great again.

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/10/how-china-outsmarted-trump-administration/169125/

greater fool

12-10-2020, 11:39 AM

An earnest appraisal of the re-orientation of the international order. . . now that America's great again.

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/10/how-china-outsmarted-trump-administration/169125/

https://www.smh.com.au/national/under-cover-of-covid-there-s-been-troubling-news-about-tyranny-s-rise-20200928-p55zxc.html

"A decade ago there were 98 democratic states in the world, according to Democracy Without Borders. By this year that had fallen to 87. Autocracy claimed eight nations last year alone.
"For the first time since 2001, a majority of all states worldwide are no longer under democratic rule," says its annual Varieties of Democracy report, published in March by researchers based at the University of Gothenburg. It draws on a survey of 3000 experts worldwide to produce 3 million data points.
Fifty-four per cent of the human race now lives under autocratic rule. "And with Hungary, there is for the first time an EU member state classified as autocratic," it finds."

FYI: Peter Hartcher has had the sponsored study tour, taken the special briefings as gospel, deeply drunk the Kool-aid.
And his article doesn't fully recognise the rise in authoritarianism in Modi's India, Boris in UK, ScoMo in Aussie, all of Washington and Suga in Japan.
The trend is growing daily.
Remember to wash your hands, wear a mask, use the QR tracing app, stay home if sick, work from home...................

blackcap

12-10-2020, 12:51 PM

https://www.smh.com.au/national/under-cover-of-covid-there-s-been-troubling-news-about-tyranny-s-rise-20200928-p55zxc.html

Remember to wash your hands, wear a mask, use the QR tracing app, work from home...................

Not for me thanks. I will wash hands if required but not this incessant hand wringing nonsense I see around me. I will not wear a mask. I do not use the QR tracing app, and I do work from home but will go to meetings and meet people face to face outside the home where possible.

greater fool

12-10-2020, 01:24 PM

Not for me thanks. I will wash hands if required but not this incessant hand wringing nonsense I see around me. I will not wear a mask. I do not use the QR tracing app, and I do work from home but will go to meetings and meet people face to face outside the home where possible.

Our authoritarian government is very keen to know what you're up to. They don't really need the tracing app, they're tracking your phone. monitoring
everything you do....................

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428103/government-facial-recognition-tech-deal-offers-wide-access

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421048/how-covid-19-research-funding-is-help-police-track-people-with-cctv

blackcap

12-10-2020, 01:30 PM

Our authoritarian government is very keen to know what you're up to. They don't really need the tracing app, they're tracking your phone. monitoring
everything you do....................

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428103/government-facial-recognition-tech-deal-offers-wide-access

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421048/how-covid-19-research-funding-is-help-police-track-people-with-cctv

Cheers for the links there greater fool. Interesting to see and quite concerning. I guess the younger generation do not really have an issue with these type of things..

I often leave my phone at home though so hopefully they think I lead a very hermitic lifestyle.

"any private organisation can seek approval to join from Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment." That's a bit of a worry.

Davexl

12-10-2020, 03:28 PM

Our authoritarian government is very keen to know what you're up to. They don't really need the tracing app, they're tracking your phone. monitoring
everything you do....................

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428103/government-facial-recognition-tech-deal-offers-wide-access

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421048/how-covid-19-research-funding-is-help-police-track-people-with-cctv

This is the bit that concerns me:

"If biometric ID is compromised it cannot be repaired," the report noted.

That's the issue with digital biometrics, once it's been hacked or otherwise stolen, the keys to your identity are wide open for replicating elsewhere...
It's inevitable that the data will be hacked at some point...

Have the Govt mandarins and the Privacy Commissioner really thought about this?

GTM 3442

12-10-2020, 06:27 PM

A view of the Indian experience with biometric security and identity

https://www.paisabazaar.com/aadhar-card/aadhaar-frauds-how-to-prevent-them/

Davexl

12-10-2020, 08:29 PM

A view of the Indian experience with biometric security and identity

https://www.paisabazaar.com/aadhar-card/aadhaar-frauds-how-to-prevent-them/

Introducing even more complexity for the ordinary citizen to prevent fraud, as a direct result of having a biometric security system.
Very interesting nonetheless...

But we are all getting slightly off topic - back to Geopolitics...

Davexl

12-10-2020, 08:46 PM

France joins the Pacific centric Geopolitical party over China concerns...

"France escalates China push, appoints ambassador for Indo-Pacific"

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/france-escalates-china-push-appoints-ambassador-for-indo-pacific-20201012-p5647f.html

Davexl

13-10-2020, 10:12 AM

China’s insistence that Taiwan isn’t a country starts backfiring

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/12/asia-pacific/china-taiwan-country/

Davexl

13-10-2020, 10:53 AM

Madeleine Albright: Donald Trump must not be how American democracy dies
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/madeleine-albright-donald-trump-must-not-be-how-american-democracy-dies/TXCKVJZSMEW5DOHY7ZL6VID4DY/
(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/madeleine-albright-donald-trump-must-not-be-how-american-democracy-dies/TXCKVJZSMEW5DOHY7ZL6VID4DY/)
Paywalled, Premium article...

blackcap

13-10-2020, 11:02 AM

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has “stacked 60,000 soldiers against the Indians in the north” of India, along the two countries’ Himalayan border, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Friday.
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/10/12/pompeo-says-china-deployed-60000-soldiers-border-india/

Davexl

13-10-2020, 04:14 PM

Davexl

14-10-2020, 06:40 PM

Erdogan defiance of Putin bodes a bloody October
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/erdogan-defiance-of-putin-bodes-a-bloody-october/

Davexl

15-10-2020, 12:36 PM

The Building of the Quad

Understanding Japan’s future security relationships

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/10/14/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-security-relationships/

Davexl

17-10-2020, 10:54 AM

Lessons being learnt from Germany? or Germany learning lessons?

With 'great concern': Germany watching Australia-China relationship...

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/with-great-concern-germany-watching-australia-china-relationship-20201015-p565ej.html

Davexl

17-10-2020, 10:57 AM

Next Aust trade item being hit - Cotton

China's cotton mills told to avoid Australian exports
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-s-cotton-mills-told-to-avoid-australian-exports-20201016-p565ox.html

Waltzing

17-10-2020, 11:07 AM

NZ next? highly likely .....

Davexl

17-10-2020, 11:32 AM

NZ next? highly likely .....

Well - let's not encourage them...but you may be right if the criticism is public, shutting down free speech in small Western nations...

GTM 3442

18-10-2020, 02:05 AM

An hour and a bit of Australian navel-gazing

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&t=225&v=mD9lG8WBwpM

greater fool

18-10-2020, 11:40 AM

Western world waking up to Beijing's bullying

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/western-world-waking-up-to-beijing-s-bullying-20201012-p5647l.html

"Beijing's behaviour has alarmed a score of countries that would have preferred to turn a blind eye and simply accept Chinese trade and investment. China's elites have noticed the backlash: "It would be better if China had been more low-key and humble," a prominent commentator, Shen Dingli of Fudan University in Shanghai, told the New York Times."

Opinion: Bhim Bhurtel October 16, 2020
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/losing-trade-tech-war-means-end-of-us-imperialism/

"In contrast to colonialism, the direct rule and economic exploitation of colonies by great powers, imperialism directly or indirectly imposes international trade rules by way of military power and strategic arms. These rules then ensure that the economic surplus flows toward the imperialist power. The US has maintained its economic and political domination in the world by adopting imperialism.
For example, the Plaza Accord (https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/9146efe8/WorkingPaper-Plaza_Green-092815.pdf) destroyed the Japanese economy in the 1990s. The rate of expansion of the Japanese economy had been much higher than that of the US. Japan’s manufacturing was leading exports internationally, and the country was now the second-largest economy.
To remain an uncontested superpower, the US needed to halt (https://medium.com/@kendawg/how-the-plaza-accord-helped-the-us-destroy-the-japanese-economy-b4b24c20a9af) Japan’s economic growth. Washington initiated the Plaza Accord negotiations, and the US, Germany, France, the UK, and Japan signed the accord. Tokyo was cowed into compliance by the US military presence in Japan.
The Plaza Accord was highly influential in the Japanese economy. It led to the Japanese asset price bubble (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble) of the late 1980s and ultimately to the lost decade (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)) starting from the early 1990s. "

Davexl

19-10-2020, 04:58 PM

Australia says it’s ready to talk to China about their trade dispute
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/australia-is-ready-for-dialogue-with-china-to-resolve-trade-issues-minister.html

Davexl

19-10-2020, 05:11 PM

Tensions even in Fiji "the friendly isles"...

Taiwan says diplomat sent to hospital after China spat in Fiji

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-china-fiji/taiwan-says-diplomat-sent-to-hospital-after-china-spat-in-fiji-idUSKBN27409V (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-china-fiji/taiwan-says-diplomat-sent-to-hospital-after-china-spat-in-fiji-idUSKBN27409V)

Davexl

19-10-2020, 05:21 PM

Beijing threatens to detain Americans if U.S. prosecutes Chinese scholars

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/19/asia-pacific/china-americans-us-prosecutes-scholars/

glennj

20-10-2020, 10:48 AM

Appreciate your posts Davexl. Saves a fair bit of skim reading elsewhere. Useful to be aware of potential geopolitical risks even if some perceived threats don't eventuate.

Davexl

20-10-2020, 04:30 PM

Appreciate your posts Davexl. Saves a fair bit of skim reading elsewhere. Useful to be aware of potential geopolitical risks even if some perceived threats don't eventuate.

Thanks glenj, am taking a bit of a break for a couple of weeks. Everyone is free to step up and contribute at any time...Just snippetts and links to keep an eye on developments...

Davexl

20-10-2020, 05:00 PM

Japan and Australia to coordinate on protection of military assetshttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/20/national/japan-australia-coordinate-protection-military-assets/

Davexl

20-10-2020, 05:05 PM

Canada-China spat heats up over ambassador's alleged threat

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/canada-china-ambassador-threat/
(https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/canada-china-ambassador-threat/)
(delete your japantimes 'cookie' and refresh)

GTM 3442

20-10-2020, 06:39 PM

Funny how the old alliances rotate - USA/Pakistan, USSR/India becomes China/Pakistan, USA/India.

The prize is Africa, and the route lies through Gwadar

https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/narendra-modi-is-clueless-about-facing-china-1.74656497

dibble

21-10-2020, 01:58 PM

Slightly tangental but moderately interesting for Russia followers, in a Guardian article Russia just unveiled its new Military Cathedral (partly built from melted down Nazi tanks etc etc). It has battle murals instead of halos and cheribums including one of soldiers without ensignia in Crimea (you know, the ones whose existence russia denied) but most interestingly, they've left a few blank spaces for future conflicts.
Bless them.

Davexl

23-10-2020, 08:53 PM

GTM 3442

24-10-2020, 02:36 AM

Gas war with Russia drives Turkey in the Caucasus
Ankara says EU allies seeking to diversify from Russian gas should see Karabakh hostilities as a wake-up call

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/gas-war-with-russia-drives-turkey-in-the-caucasus/

Given the state of play with the gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, I suspect that neither Russia nor Turkey would be averse to a "frozen conflict" or some mayhem and madness (or even both in the Caucasus.

Davexl

25-10-2020, 11:11 AM

Finally some excellent local appearing commentary simply summarising for New Zealanders
what has been going on in North East Asia, from someone who knows what he's talking about...

The shifting sands of China's world view

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/123172810/the-shifting-sands-of-chinas-world-view (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/123172810/the-shifting-sands-of-chinas-world-view)

Marilyn Munroe

26-10-2020, 12:20 PM

Link to article on Stuff about NZ's policy stance towards China's belligerence in view of increasing Western push-back.

I suspect the rice christians in New Zealand politics are keeping their heads down and hoping it all goes away.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Davexl

27-10-2020, 11:59 AM

Whether the following is true or not, the US election & its aftermath represents a critical period of heightened risk re Taiwan...

US ratchets up China overflights: report

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/us-ratchets-up-china-overflights-report/

Davexl

27-10-2020, 12:22 PM

China shocked to discover the developed world views it in a negative light (for those with VPNs anyway...)https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/10/27/commentary/world-commentary/china-developed-world-negative-sentiment/ (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/10/27/commentary/world-commentary/china-developed-world-negative-sentiment/)

Davexl

28-10-2020, 11:28 AM

A more nuanced view on approaching Chinese relations (of which Trump is incapable of...)

China’s Inexorable Rise to Superpower Is History Repeating Itself

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/china-rise-to-global-superpower-is-a-restoration-not-an-ascent

Davexl

28-10-2020, 05:47 PM

U.S. and India to sign defense pact amid China border standoffhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/27/asia-pacific/us-india-defense-pact-china/

Davexl

29-10-2020, 08:19 PM

In Indonesia, Trump envoy presses case against Chinahttps://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/in-indonesia-trump-envoy-presses-case-against-china-20201029-p569qq.html

Davexl

29-10-2020, 10:02 PM

More on non-aligned Indonesia...

Vaccines, not spy planes: U.S. misfires in Indonesia

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/29/asia-pacific/indonesia-us-coronavirus-vaccine/

Davexl

30-10-2020, 12:15 PM

Opinion 1: China PRC viewpoint as relatively benign: "China is not a threat to US liberty or democracy" China is no friend to liberal ideology but beyond empty slogans it has no real ambition to export its authoritarian model

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/china-is-not-a-threat-to-us-liberty-or-democracy/

Davexl

30-10-2020, 12:19 PM

Opinion 2: China PRC viewpoint as simply aggressive:

"China doesn’t want deals, it wants global domination"

The next US commander-in-chief must recognize and react to the fact he is in an epochal battle with the Middle Kingdom

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/china-doesnt-want-deals-it-wants-global-domination/

Davexl

30-10-2020, 12:57 PM

China's PRC stability vs Western contestibility:

"As many countries struggle to plan weeks ahead, China just set its agenda for the next 15 years"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/28/asia/china-beijing-plenum-us-intl-hnk/index.html

Davexl

30-10-2020, 05:28 PM

Chinese, U.S. military chiefs hold crisis communication, says China defence ministryhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-military/chinese-u-s-military-chiefs-hold-crisis-communication-says-china-defence-ministry-idUSKBN27E1XJ

Davexl

30-10-2020, 05:57 PM

Once unimaginable, some now debating return of U.S. forces to Taiwanhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/28/asia-pacific/us-forces-taiwan-china/

Marilyn Munroe

31-10-2020, 11:36 AM

Dispite the bland reaurrances from the Marxist-Lennists in the celestial kingdom President Xi may be mindfull of the the playwright Shakespeares observations and advice to ruthless despots.

"Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown"

"Busy giddy minds with foreign quarrels"

If Xi's crown comes under threat there is a danger he will take the playwrights advice in line two.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Davexl

05-11-2020, 07:54 PM

Close to home...

Xi says it's 'ill-advised to hurt the interests of others' as Australia braces for $6 billion hit

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/xi-says-it-s-ill-advised-to-hurt-others-interests-as-australia-braces-for-6-billion-hit-20201105-p56btq.html

Davexl

05-11-2020, 08:15 PM

Australia getting burned by its anti-China policies
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/australia-getting-burned-by-its-anti-china-policies/

Watchful

05-11-2020, 08:42 PM

“ China is set to narrowly miss a previous goal of doubling GDP in the decade to 2020, as the economy needs to grow at least 5.6% this year to hit that target. The economy could grow just over 2% this year.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN27J1K9

Davexl

06-11-2020, 03:20 PM

Perhaps Biden can unwind the Tech-war geopolitical risk if he takes the Senate...

Exploding the myth of Huawei’s 5G security risk

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/exploding-the-myth-of-huaweis-5g-security-risk/

Davexl

06-11-2020, 03:29 PM

An interim state of affairs while the US returns to "normality" under Biden

International disorder: Post-election realities for Japan and allies of the U.S.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/11/05/commentary/world-commentary/post-election-realities-japan-us-allies/ (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/11/05/commentary/world-commentary/post-election-realities-japan-us-allies/)

Davexl

07-11-2020, 12:22 PM

Biden might de-escalate China tech war

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/biden-might-de-escalate-china-tech-war/ (https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/biden-might-de-escalate-china-tech-war/)

Davexl

07-11-2020, 12:24 PM

Can Biden restore America’s global reputation?

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/can-biden-restore-americas-global-reputation/

Davexl

08-11-2020, 05:37 PM

Biden faces monumental task of rebuilding trust on global stagehttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/08/world/politics-diplomacy-world/biden-commander-in-chief/

Davexl

10-11-2020, 01:12 PM

While the US rebuilds its credentials after Trump

Japan’s Growing Centrality to Regional Maritime Security

By Richard Javad Heydarian (https://amti.csis.org/author/rheydarian/) | October 7, 2020 (https://amti.csis.org/japans-growing-centrality-to-regional-maritime-security/)

https://amti.csis.org/japans-growing-centrality-to-regional-maritime-security/ (https://amti.csis.org/japans-growing-centrality-to-regional-maritime-security/)

Davexl

10-11-2020, 05:33 PM

Russia deploys troops to Nagorno-Karabakh after ceasefire deal announced

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-armenia-azerbaijan/russia-deploys-troops-to-nagorno-karabakh-after-ceasefire-deal-announced-idUSKBN27Q06G

Davexl

12-11-2020, 05:18 PM

It's finally happened...

Beijing gives up on even the pretense of allowing opposition in Hong Kong

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/11/asia/hong-kong-legco-china-npc-intl-hnk/index.html

Davexl

12-11-2020, 05:25 PM

Trump’s National Security Advisor Warns China on Hong Kong

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11/trump-s-national-security-advisor-warns-china-on-hong-kong?srnd=premium-asia

(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11/trump-s-national-security-advisor-warns-china-on-hong-kong?srnd=premium-asia)Excerpt:

While the U.S. has imposed sanctions against Lam and some officials in Beijing, it has so far held off punishing the country’s senior hierarchy. Such a move would infuriate Beijing and accelerate a deterioration in relations between the two nations on a variety of issues.

(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-11/trump-s-national-security-advisor-warns-china-on-hong-kong?srnd=premium-asia)

Davexl

12-11-2020, 05:47 PM

Xi challenges Biden with move to snuff out Hong Kong oppositionhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/12/asia-pacific/xi-challenges-biden-hong-kong/

Davexl

15-11-2020, 09:11 PM

As things currently stand...

Australia on edge as China’s trade threats bite

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/australia-on-edge-as-chinas-trade-threats-bite/

Davexl

16-11-2020, 05:20 PM

Trump’s refusal to concede harms US soft power

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/trumps-refusal-to-concede-harms-us-soft-power/

GTM 3442

17-11-2020, 09:36 PM

You can find the odd insight here. . .

https://www.lawfareblog.com/

Davexl

19-11-2020, 12:50 PM

greater fool

19-11-2020, 03:06 PM

'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia

"The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said the Australian government makes "sound decisions" in our national interest and in accordance
with our values and open democratic processes.
We are a liberal democratic society with a free media and a parliamentary democracy, where elected members and media are entitled to freely
express their views," the department said in a statement.
The Australian government is always ready to talk directly in a constructive fashion about Australia’s relationship with China, including about our
differences, and to do so directly between our political leaders."

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if-you-make-china-the-enemy-china-will-be-the-enemy-beijing-s-fresh-threat-to-australia-20201118-p56fqs.html

......with a free media.............
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-s-dirty-secret-and-the-trial-too-sensitive-for-an-open-court-20200715-p55c6a.html

".......the government is still pursuing barrister Bernard Collaery in the courts over claimed breaches of intelligence secrecy
laws in relation to an operation in Dili in 2004, when the Howard government spied on and bugged Timor-Leste officials’ private
discussions about maritime boundary negotiations – to give Australia the upper hand."

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jan/30/coalition-secrecy-laws-threaten-public-interest-journalism-committee-told

"The committee focused on two bills: the proposed changes to national security laws, which could see journalists and
whistleblowers jailed for up to 20 years and the foreign influence transparency scheme bill, which would require
those who under take political, campaigning or lobbying activities “on behalf of foreign principals” to sign up to
a public register. Federal police admit to accessing journalist's metadata without a warrant.
The national security reforms would increase tenfold the maximum penalty for anyone who communicates or “deals with”
information which could potentially “cause harm to Australia’s interests,” where that information is obtained via
a government official without authorisation.
The government says the new laws are about countering the influence of foreign states such as China and Russia,
and the outgoing attorney general, George Brandis, has said the new laws have been necessitated by an unprecedented
level of interference in Australian politics by foreign actors.
But the proposal includes major changes to secrecy laws that could potentially be applied to journalists and
organisations such as WikiLeaks by including information that prejudices international relations “in any way” or
damages relations between the federal government and a state."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/2018642358/australian-media-unite-to-fight-laws-to-jail-journalists

"Australia's biggest news media companies have united to fight new national security laws that could criminalise
reporters and their sources. Peter Greste - who knows all about being jailed for journalism - tells Mediawatch
New Zealand should take notice too."

..........talk directly in a constructive fashion about Australia’s relationship with China.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/quad-is-built-on-wobbly-foundations/

"Beijing lays claim to some islands in the East China sea to which some other Asian nations also lay claim.
But, then, so too does Taiwan. The total area of the islands claimed by Taiwan but contested by other Asian
nations is far greater than that of those claimed by Beijing.
This was in effect also the 2016 conclusion of the UN tribunal set up to consider rival claims. And if we go back
into history, or to the US-brokered 1951 and ’52 peace treaties with Japan, both Chinas can claim some legal basis
for their claims.
Beijing’s opposition to Japan’s claim to the Senkaku Islands in the East China sea is also seen as proof of aggressiveness.
But Beijing does not claim the islands for itself; it does so on behalf of Taiwan, whose claim has a strong historic and
geographic basis. In fact, it was so strong that under pressure from the Taiwan lobby in the US, Washington refused
Japan’s claim to sovereignty over the Senkaku islands when the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa were returned to Japan in 1971.
The US only recognizes Japan’s administrative rights.
Even the name of the islands is not Japanese. Senkaku is a translation of the name Pinnacle Islands given by British explorers
in the area in the 18th century. The Chinese name – Diaoyutai or Fishing Platform – goes back much farther.
Elsewhere, it is hard to find examples of China’s alleged aggressiveness. There is much reference to the Sino-Indian frontier
war of 1962 and Indian claims of Chinese aggressive pressure ever since.

Apart from the fertile imaginations of the Quad members, have we seen proof of Beijing’s alleged aggressiveness?
If there is any belligerent talk coming out of Beijing today the most likely cause is the belligerent attitudes of the Quad members."

Davexl

19-11-2020, 04:32 PM

The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hard-line faction
(Source withheld)

Excerpts:

Naturally, while internally Xi has been shown to be weak and even culpable for the bungled management of WuHan virus in the first stage, Xi has only international stage that he could show his own strength to shore up his own position.

I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.

1) President Xi was a compromise choice for the presidency between the two main factions of CCP, both, btw, are moderate factions.

2) In 2013, Bao Xilai's wife murdered a British national and Bao was arrested for corruption and purged from CCP. Bao was a senior Politburo member and had ambition to be the president of China. He happened to have led a small but hard-line faction in Chonqing where he was the mayor- Chongqing is a huge city with the status of a province.

3) Xi had no power base within CCP moderate factions. After Bao's fall, Xi basically inherited Bao's hardline faction. Since then, Xi's policies have been reflections of this hard-line faction.

4) Former president Jiang and the current premier are the leaders of the largest Shanghai faction in CCP. Former President Hu and his premier Wen are the leaders of the other main moderate faction.

5) In 1996, Jiang let the hardline faction have their way firing missiles near Taiwan only to show the weakness of Chinese military, and, hence the folly of the hard-line faction within CCP.PLA.

6) Xi's policies and measures internally and externally have been parts of the struggle with the two main moderate factions.

7) COVID-19 of course was Xi's mishandling in the first place. He despatched the premier to WuHan in early February. But the premier knew it was a trap so his people cleverly issued an old photo of him supposedly working hard on the COVID-19. A few days later, he quit the responsibility of managing COVID-19 after the photo was 'found' to have been a 7 year old photo.

8) For the next few weeks, Xi could not force any of the Politburo members or any minsters to WuHan to take charge. The mayor of WuHan was left to swim or sink.

9) Only till the end of March, Xi sent his own protege, the health minister, to take charge of WuHan virus matter. Before this, it was clear that Xi and his protege were trying to protect themselves.

10) In mid April, the health minister came back to BeiJing from WuHan. Within 2 weeks, he was arrested for breaching party disciplines. That is, he has been purged from CCP.

11) For Xi to lose his own protege, it could only mean one or both of two things. Xi had lost so much power due to COVID-19 mishandling by himself and his protege. that he could not protect his own protege. Or Xi was wiling to sacrifice his own protege to save his own skin. Either way, Xi's position within CCP itself was and remains very much insecure.

12) Naturally, while internally Xi has been shown to be weak and even culpable for the bungled management of WuHan virus in the first stage, Xi has only international stage that he could show his own strength to shore up his own position.

13) Attacking China for mishandling COVID-19 in a way has given Xi breathing space for Xi has been exploiting it to show his toughness against foreign interventions.

14) The HK matter, also, in a way, has allowed Xi to show his hard-line faction's way is the only way to manage HK.

15) Due to COVID-19 impacting badly on domestic economy, the Chinese premier has advocated policies and measures that often are openly repudiated by Xi with alternative directives. Traditionally, domestic economy is the domain of the premier.

16) Xi is now riding a tiger that he could not jump off. The two main moderate factions would never take him back (he had been a member of the main moderate Shanghai faction as with his own father who had been in charge of the creation of ShenZen special economic zone just over the border from HK). Given the COVID-19 rampage in US, it is obvious why Xi's daughter has gone back to US where she has finished her university studies already.

17) I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.

18) On the other hand, if the west wants to have a more moderate leadership within CCP/PLA/China and Helen a less aggressive CCP/PLA, there is one simple way to approach this.

19) Stop giving President Xi access to international forums. BRIC counties, if possible, should stop conveying. India and Brazil should be persuaded for such. ASEAN nations should stop their invitations of China and hence Xi to its meetings. ASEAN nations could be persuaded by US. Australia and EU for doing this. APAC also should cease to operate to stop Xi from getting platform in conveying his messages.

20) All western democracies as well as Korea, Japan and SE Asia nations should not invite Xi or refuse Xi visiting their countries, full stop.

21) Further, sending back all Chinese diplomats that have air unwarranted hostile remarks against western countries back to China and blacklist them from being accepted for other posts (diplomatic, trade or commercial enterprises) in the west.

22) By isolating/excluding Xi from international forums, Xi could not use international stages to shore up his own position in the struggles within CCP.

23) BTW, by not taking phone calls from Aussie ministers is similar to my suggestions of excluding Xi from international forums, but against Australia instead.

24) Also ban all Chinese social sites in the west across the board. Ban Global Times (CCP's mouth piece in the west) from operating within the west altogether.

25) CCTV's international arms have YouTube channels. As long as China has banned YouTube, its own government and state owned enterprises should not be allowed to have channels on YouTube either. (I would miss some of the good programmes, but some are nothing but with CCP/PLA propaganda, lol)

26) To fight Xi, we could do nothing in the west and let the 2 main moderate factions do their own works to bring down Xi and his hard-line faction. Or we can also be hard-line against Xi himself too.

Marilyn Munroe

20-11-2020, 09:27 AM

'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/if-you-make-china-the-enemy-china-will-be-the-enemy-beijing-s-fresh-threat-to-australia-20201118-p56fqs.html

President Xi should be mindful the last ruthless dictator who thought he could give the democracies a licking ended up dead in a bunker with a bullet through his brain.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

greater fool

20-11-2020, 11:04 AM

The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hardline faction
(Source witheld)

Excerpt:
I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hardline approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.
<< other content removed>>>

From the language/style of the source I think this maybe from a draft notes of a last report for a Tour of Duty due to end soon ( July3 2014~ Dec30 2020)
Look forward to reading final report if it gets published.
Replacement researcher needed do you think?
Apply here: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/china-fellowship-application-form

greater fool

20-11-2020, 02:16 PM

https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-s-new-wolf-warrior-diplomacy-is-a-maoist-resurrection-20201111-p56dln.html

"China is following a belligerent foreign policy which singles out countries such as Australia for punishment, as examples to other
governments. Australia’s "offence"? Simply put: passing laws aimed at protecting the political system against Chinese Communist Party
interference, launching freedom of navigation exercises in the international waters of the South China Sea through which the bulk of
Australian shipping passes and daring to ask the Xi government to examine the origins of the COVID-19 outbreak that unleashed the
devastating global pandemic. ............"

"Xi is taking China backwards, restoring foreign affairs policies from the two most repressive periods of the Mao era — 1949 to 1952,
when Mao’s policies squeezed out foreign businesses, journalists and missionaries to create “New China”, and the Cultural Revolution
years from 1966 to 1969, when Mao launched drastic purges against foreign influence in Chinese society.
Xi is a great admirer of Mao and even styles his clothing and posture to look like him. Xi Jinping was a young activist in the Cultural
Revolution years and joined the CCP in 1971. One of Xi Jinping’s earliest speeches as leader echoed many Mao phrases and framing including
the boast that China would soon have the "dominant position” in world affairs."

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3109668/china-australia-relations-ex-pm-malcolm-turnbull-urges

"But Turnbull rejected such calls, encouraging his successors in government to “stand firm”.
“The one thing you cannot do with Beijing or any other superpower is become sycophantic or to demonstrate that you will just buckle
whenever the pressure is ratcheted up, you get no thanks for it – you get less respect,” said Turnbull, who was speaking at a
Peterson Institute for International Economics webinar on Friday."

greater fool

20-11-2020, 02:23 PM

The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hardline faction
(Source witheld)
Excerpts:

24) Also ban all Chinese social sites in the west across the board. Ban Global Times (CCP's mouth piece in the west) from operating within the west altogether.

25) CCTV's international arms have YouTube channels. As long as China has banned YouTube, its own government and state owned enterprises should not be allowed to have channels on YouTube either. (I would miss some of the good programmes, but some are nothing but with CCP/PLA propaganda, lol)

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/19/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/taiwan-shuts-pro-china-tv-channel/

"Taiwan’s broadcast regulator has ordered the closure of one of the island’s most ardently pro-China cable news networks following a monthslong battle over journalistic standards and freedom of the press."

Davexl

20-11-2020, 05:50 PM

How a 'vast ocean of goodwill' between China and Australia turned sourhttps://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/19/asia/australia-china-morrison-intl-hnk/index.html

greater fool

21-11-2020, 09:35 AM

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/the-futility-of-being-tough-on-china/

"As a matter of fact, being “tough” on China has proved disastrous for the US and its allies. The trade war against China has increased
America’s trade deficits, eroded manufacturing, put farmers at financial risk and undermined economic growth.

Meanwhile, appointing itself as US “deputy sheriff” has landed Australia in a recession. Japan and South Korea are at risk of being
targeted by Chinese economic retaliation. Cozying up to the US will make it harder for India to recover from an 11% economic contraction
and not gaining an inch in its border dispute with China.

Indeed, the only “sin” China has committed is that its development model is too successful, elevating the economy to No 2 in nominal GDP
terms and the biggest in purchasing power parity terms within a generation.China was a “good guy” when it was producing labor-intensive
or low-technology products such as garments. It only became the world’s “greatest threat” when it was able to produce high-technology goods
that were competitive with those produced in the US. "

Waltzing

21-11-2020, 10:28 AM

Risk for NZ is growing as possible spill over from AUS increases but im sure wellington is trying to keep its head down. The problem is that pressure will come on NZ from the US hawks but lets hope the US is so busy this all blows over in the storms ahead.

Norwest

21-11-2020, 12:02 PM

Meanwhile, appointing itself as US “deputy sheriff” has landed Australia in a recession.

I'm pretty sure you'll find the wuhan flu put them (and us) into a recession.

I started reading the article you posted, but its obviously written by a CCP shill so stopped reading it pretty quickly.

Davexl

21-11-2020, 03:26 PM

Waltzing

21-11-2020, 05:44 PM

if we look at whats happened in HK i dont think the CCP is anything but in full control..

my friends there have all sold or closed their business and left in the stock market industry and clothe brand design and returned to australia.

we got our warning on the virus In to everyone 24 hours before the HK health warning and everyone showed up with masks on the next day.

one only needs to see what has happened in the south china seas to see the true intent of the CCP..

japan is coming under daily pressure in the skies from china aircraft patrols... its not looking good..

Davexl

21-11-2020, 05:44 PM

greater fool

22-11-2020, 11:12 AM

Unprecedented and impossible to believe. but it happened!

Trump makes futile last stand to overturn results as Georgia certifies Biden win

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/20/trump-michigan-republicans-election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector

Electors are typically chosen and nominated by a political party or the party's presidential nominee, and are usually party members
with a reputation for high loyalty to the party and its chosen candidate. Thus, a faithless elector runs the risk of party censure
and political retaliation from their party, as well as potential legal penalties in some states. Candidates for electors are nominated
by state political parties in the months prior to Election Day. In some states, such as Indiana, the electors are nominated in primaries,
the same way other candidates are nominated.[2] In other states, such as Oklahoma, Virginia, and North Carolina, electors are nominated
in party conventions. In Pennsylvania, the campaign committee of each candidate names their candidates for elector (an attempt to
discourage faithless electors). In some states, high-ranking and/or well-known state officials up to and including governors often
serve as electors whenever possible (the Constitution prohibits federal officials from acting as electors, but does not restrict
state officials from doing so). The parties have generally been successful in keeping their electors faithful, leaving out the rare
cases in which a candidate died before the elector was able to cast a vote.

There have been a total of 165[3] instances of faithlessness as of 2016, 63 of which occurred in 1872 when Horace Greeley died after Election
Day but before the Electoral College convened. Nearly all have voted for third party candidates or non-candidates, as opposed to switching
their support to a major opposing candidate. During the 1836 election, Virginia's entire 23-man electoral delegation faithlessly abstained[4]
from voting for victorious Democratic vice presidential nominee Richard M. Johnson.[3] The loss of Virginia's support caused Johnson to fall
one electoral vote short of a majority, causing the vice-presidential election to be thrown into the U.S. Senate for the only time in American history.

Davexl

23-11-2020, 03:51 PM

Looks like the world might be back with a safe pair of hands (China included)

Biden Chooses Antony Blinken, Defender of Global Alliances, as Secretary of State

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/us/politics/biden-antony-blinken-secretary-of-state.html?surface=most-popular&fellback=false&req_id=652857876&algo=bandit-all-surfaces&imp_id=636303189

Excerpt:

"Working with other countries, Mr. Blinken said in the same July forum at the Hudson Institute, could have the added benefit of confronting another top diplomatic challenge: competing with China by choosing multilateral efforts to advance trade, technology investments and human rights — instead of forcing individual nations to choose between the two superpowers’ economies."

Davexl

24-11-2020, 09:08 PM

The Biden administration and the South China Sea

The Trump administration leaves behind a major nexus of confrontation with China for Biden to contend with
by Mark J. Valencia

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/the-biden-administration-and-the-south-china-sea/

(https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/the-biden-administration-and-the-south-china-sea/)

Davexl

24-11-2020, 09:10 PM

This could be a fast developing story...

These AAA-Rated Bonds Are Tumbling as China Default Fears Spread

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-23/these-aaa-rated-chinese-bonds-are-tumbling-as-default-fears-grow

Balance

24-11-2020, 09:12 PM

Davexl

24-11-2020, 09:35 PM

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108071/upsetting-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-most-significant-trading-partner-seems-very-silly-thing-do-so

Meanwhile, we have Mahuta in her first foray as Foreign Minister telling the Chinese exactly where NZ stands - with a declining empire against our biggest trading partner.

Watch this space!

Interesting article but I believe China has far bigger fish to fry than insignificant New Zealand, even as a part of Five Eyes.
Foreign Minister Mahuta's reply was very mild in comparison to China's Foreign Ministry's aggressive rhetoric, and the Prime Minister referred to "our mature relationship" almost apologetically...

I mean let's face it, NZ is a joke - pretending to have its own sovereign foreign policy, when it can't even defend its share of the necessary defence partnership load with Australia, let alone interact credibly with the US as a non-ally. (Despite excellent progress by Ron Mark as MOD).

We need an ANZUS II and we need to credibly re-arm (including a new air-strike wing) and prepare for whats coming
from an increasingly aggressive President Xi in the future...(or wait until the China moderates force him out - see previous page "The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hardline faction").

New-Zealand's Dangerous Strategic Apathy in an Uncertain Age

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/

Gunner

24-11-2020, 09:44 PM

Interesting article but I believe China has far bigger fish to fry than insignificant New Zealand, even as a part of Five Eyes.

I mean let's face it, NZ is a joke - pretending to have its own sovereign foreign policy, when it can't even defend its share of the necessary partnership load with Australia, let alone interact credibly with the US as a non-ally.

We need an ANZUS II and we need to credibly re-arm (including a new air-strike wing) and prepare for whats coming from an aggressive President Xi in the future...

BS, we need to work with China and face the fact they're not going away. They're too big and important to be adversaries. That doesn't mean we should be weak but rather play the game how nz has been to date.

Nz will never credibley rearm as you call it. Simply too small. A few fighter planes wont make any difference. Nz is far from a joke, is actually a great little country.

Davexl

24-11-2020, 09:59 PM

BS, we need to work with China and face the fact they're not going away. They're too big and important to be adversaries. That doesn't mean we should be weak but rather play the game how nz has been to date.

Nz will never credibley rearm as you call it. Simply too small. A few fighter planes wont make any difference. Nz is far from a joke, is actually a great little country.

I love this country more than you can possibly imagine, just before WWII, NZ was completely defenceless and hadn't taken out an insurance policy against aggression by a foreign power. Wake UP!! History is repeating itself. As long as President Xi remains in power, things will get progressively worse...(or wait until the China moderates force him out - see previous page "The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hardline faction").

Davexl

25-11-2020, 10:01 AM

Biden Welcomes National Security Team, Says ‘America Is Back’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-24/biden-fills-out-national-security-team-as-he-seeks-a-reset

SPC

25-11-2020, 10:43 AM

Davexl

25-11-2020, 12:54 PM

Japan and Australia put aside wartime baggage to counter China’s rise

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/11/24/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-australia-china/

Excerpt:

"While both Suga and Morrison reject claims that their cooperation targets China, both countries’ defense ministries identify Beijing as a principle cause of regional instability and call for enhanced capabilities to keep the peace. The two leaders’ joint statement notes “serious concerns” about “coercive or unilateral attempts to change the status quo” that “increase tensions in the region.” From my vantage point — and I am not alone — the particulars in the statement point to one country, even if the two leaders don’t want to say its name out loud. Dealing with it requires more than symbolic efforts. They are underway."

Davexl

25-11-2020, 12:56 PM

No America is not back. I've traveled the highways and byways of America many times and it's a country in decline. Clapped out infrastructure and no middle class. The sun is setting on the US and rising in other lands. As it has always done. The American Century is over. Going to war isn't going to work next time and hasn't worked since the 1960s.
Telling the world you're taking the top seat at the table merely implies another futile arms race.

You may well be right, but what is the alternative - give into China's aggression and be rolled over by the CCP?

Perhaps Biden can moderate the situation between the US and China by sharing other work with multilateral institutions.
I have also been to the US and have seen their decline, but I still have faith in their ability to re-invigorate themselves
and their values which we in the West share.

Trump has caused immense damage, and it will take time to heal the divisions but at least with Biden, the world is in a better place...

SPC

25-11-2020, 02:29 PM

Davexl

25-11-2020, 03:57 PM

Why are you spouting all this pro-America stuff on share traders forum?
The connection with the capital markets is....what?
Write to Mahuta with your theories.
Tell us some share tales instead. That's what the folks here want.

1. The title of this forum is Geo-Political-Risk - look up what it means, and think about how it might affect your shares. eg China and Australia ATM
2. Whether you appreciate it or not, America's nuclear shield and global alliances have kept the world safe from a major conflagration for some 75 years.

We owe a debt to America for saving NZ and Australia from the Japanese in WWII and our generation has never had to fight a war under conscription.

I personally find this anti-Americanism attitude extremely distasteful, it clearly stems from ignorance. Read some history.
Fortunately we are lead by leaders in NZ who are not either of these things. And our past Minister of Defence was possibly the best MOD in 40 years.

Unlike the last appalling 4 years of President Trump...

Davexl

30-11-2020, 12:46 PM

US-China detente hopes rising in SE Asia

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/us-china-detente-hopes-rising-in-se-asia/

Excerpt:
"ASEAN’s preference, in a pithy phrase, would be for the US to show up but not to speak up.
Nor does the region want a return of America’s “benign neglect” of the 1990s, preferring instead something akin to “engaged indifference.”"

Davexl

30-11-2020, 12:50 PM

Davexl

30-11-2020, 12:55 PM

Treasury Wine 'extremely disappointed' by China move, pivoting to other markets

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/treasury-wine-extremely-disappointed-by-china-move-20201130-p56j1c.html

greater fool

30-11-2020, 01:25 PM

There’s More Than Wine in Australia-China Trade Tension

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-29/there-s-more-than-wine-in-australia-china-trade-tension

Exerpt:
"It is far from clear that the incoming Biden administration will feel differently about the threats that a successfully aspiring
and expanding China poses for U.S. interests. As such, the cost of running the dual-option model will continue to rise for countries that pursue it,
including Canada and Singapore." (and New Zealand) - italics are mine.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-s-own-trade-tricks-leave-it-exposed-to-china-20201112-p56dx3.html

"Between China and Australia, which country is breaching the principles of market economy and the bilateral free-trade agreement? And which country is reneging on its commitments,
undermining cooperation and taking discriminatory measures? The facts are all too clear."

Australia is one of the most prolific users of anti-dumping measures in the world. Australia's own Productivity Commission says so. In 2016, it said "there are no convincing justifications
for these measures, and they reduce the wellbeing of the Australian community". It repeated the same argument again in 2019 to press home the point on why anti-dumping measures
should be avoided.

Dumping involves foreign companies selling goods in Australia below the price in their home market, crowding out and reducing the competitiveness of the local product.
The Productivity Commission argues anti-dumping measures stymie innovation and economic growth because they protect inefficient products that can be bought at a lower price from elsewhere.
The products that are dumped are then subject to countervailing duties, or tariffs, to make the local product more competitive.

In the case of China, Australia has taken particular issue with Chinese paper, aluminum and steel being dumped into the local market and undermining the competitiveness of Australian players.
These three are worth paying particular attention to because of their importance to the local economy.”

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7012943/heres-a-critical-fact-china-doesnt-need-our-trade/?cs=14233
"Now a non-resident fellow with the United States Studies Centre, Uren's been exploring our economic and strategic relationship with China intensely for decades. To those like Morrison
who urge our manufactures to swerve, duck and go elsewhere to sell their goods Uren makes one single, critical point, with massive clarity. The dependence is all one-way.

There is, he insists, absolutely "no realistic alternative market to China for a third of [our] exports and no viable source but China for almost a fifth of imports". As a market, however,
we are almost completely irrelevant to Beijing and represent less than 2 per cent of worldwide sales. This asymmetry is complete in virtually everything other than a handful of commodities,
of which iron ore and LNG exports are dominant - and this is why Morrison's gut-led approach to the relationship with our most important trading partner isn't acceptable.

He plays our most vital international relationship as if he's an equal player on the sports field, needling and taunting an opponent for tactical advantage, seeking to provoke them into
a foul move and then thinking everything can just be dismissed to start again next match. Diplomacy isn't like that. It's not possible to pretend there's no lingering ill will from picking needless fights.

Take Morrison's ill-judged call for an investigation into the origin of COVID-19."

Davexl

30-11-2020, 04:54 PM

Just like Trump's tariffs, China's trade attack will backfire

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/just-like-trump-s-tariffs-china-s-trade-attack-will-backfire-20201130-p56j41.html

Excerpt:
"Like Trump’s tariffs and assaults on the multi-lateral organisations that America had played a pivotal
role in creating, which alarmed America’s traditional allies, China’s attempt to intimidate Australia is
likely to be counter-productive and force other western nations to consider what China’s new belligerence might mean for them."

Davexl

30-11-2020, 05:04 PM

The consequences for China of its aggressiveness:

A plea for help as China loses jobs to Vietnam

https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/a-plea-for-help-as-china-loses-jobs-to-vietnam/

Excerpts:

"While both Tianjin and Huizhou have diversified their manufacturing sectors away from foreign-invested
firms such as Samsung, the exodus of Samsung and the like and the ripple effect on local supply chains
have put a dent in the two cities’ economic outputand exports as the coronavirus slashes external demand.
The cities’ statistics say Tianjin’s GDP contracted by 3.9% in the first half of the year, and total exports were down 3.3%.

The impact is more intimately felt in Huizhou, whose economy is way smaller. Its exports plummeted
by 28% in the first six months, dragging GDP growth to a negative 4.3%."

"These developments have fueled rumors about whether Apple will soon start making iPhones outside China.
Apple news website Apple Insider claimed in August that the US tech behemoth had assessed the manufacturing
capabilities of Luxshare’s Vietnam base, after the latter injected US$454 million into its three subsidiaries in the country."

"A memo from Zhejiang’s provincial department of commerce to the Chinese Commerce Ministry viewed by
Asia Times noted that exports were still vital in keeping the local economy ticking and that, for the sake of
employment and fiscal income, Beijing must formulate new measures and dole out subsidies
amid “a hollowing out of foreign direct investment and export-oriented manufacturing.”

Davexl

30-11-2020, 09:17 PM

So will the real China please standup? The sweetness & light one or the evil CCP

China fires back at Morrison, doubles down on war crimes accusation

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/twitter-slow-to-comply-with-morrison-s-takedown-request-20201130-p56j80.html

Davexl

01-12-2020, 09:56 AM

Time for China's moderates to step up and replace Xi

(Refer "The Weakness of President Xi within China, the bungled handling of the Covid virus and a plan to deal to his hard-line faction" (Post #334)

Excerpts:
17) I personally am happy for Xi to remain president of China for his hard-line approach will continue to alienate China from the rest of the world. This will lead to more self-reliance policies and measures within the economies of the west and regions outside China.

18) On the other hand, if the west wants to have a more moderate leadership within CCP/PLA/China and Helen a less aggressive CCP/PLA, there is one simple way to approach this.

19) Stop giving President Xi access to international forums. BRIC counties, if possible, should stop conveying. India and Brazil should be persuaded for such. ASEAN nations should stop their invitations of China and hence Xi to its meetings. ASEAN nations could be persuaded by US. Australia and EU for doing this. APAC also should cease to operate to stop Xi from getting platform in conveying his messages.

20) All western democracies as well as Korea, Japan and SE Asia nations should not invite Xi or refuse Xi visiting their countries, full stop.

21) Further, sending back all Chinese diplomats that have air unwarranted hostile remarks against western countries back to China and blacklist them from being accepted for other posts (diplomatic, trade or commercial enterprises) in the west.

22) By isolating/excluding Xi from international forums, Xi could not use international stages to shore up his own position in the struggles within CCP.

23) BTW, by not taking phone calls from Aussie ministers is similar to my suggestions of excluding Xi from international forums, but against Australia instead.

24) Also ban all Chinese social sites in the west across the board. Ban Global Times (CCP's mouth piece in the west) from operating within the west altogether.

25) CCTV's international arms have YouTube channels. As long as China has banned YouTube, its own government and state owned enterprises should not be allowed to have channels on YouTube either. (I would miss some of the good programmes, but some are nothing but with CCP/PLA propaganda, lol)

26) To fight Xi, we could do nothing in the west and let the 2 main moderate factions do their own works to bring down Xi and his hard-line faction. Or we can also be hard-line against Xi himself too.

"Twitter post garbage the clearest sign yet of desperation in Beijing"

https://www.smh.com.au/national/twitter-post-garbage-the-clearest-sign-yet-of-desperation-in-beijing-20201129-p56iye.html

Davexl

01-12-2020, 03:16 PM

How Australia can respond to China's aggression

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-australia-can-respond-to-china-s-aggression-20201201-p56jgv.html

Excerpt:
"China’s use of trade sanctions in response to non-trade issues is generating international disquiet
because it underscores its new-found willingness to exercise, nakedly and crudely, its economic and geopolitical muscle."

Davexl

01-12-2020, 03:25 PM

Jacinda Ardern comes to Australia's aid in Twitter dispute with China

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/jacinda-ardern-comes-to-australia-s-aid-in-twitter-dispute-with-china-20201201-p56jgj.html

Excerpt:
France's Foreign Ministry has also reacted to the dispute.

"We do not consider the tweet in question to be worthy of the methods one would expect from the diplomacy
of a country like China," a spokesperson said. "The published image is particularly shocking and the commentary
is biased and insulting to all countries whose armed forces have been engaged in Afghanistan for nearly two decades."

Ahgong

01-12-2020, 03:34 PM

Opinion of Michael Pembroke:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3107246/why-australia-must-steer-clear-americas-moral-crusade-against-china

Davexl

02-12-2020, 11:03 AM

China is humiliating Australia as an example to others - but the bullying won't last
By Anne-Marie Brady

https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-is-humiliating-australia-as-an-example-to-others-but-the-bullying-won-t-last-20201201-p56jfz.html

Excerpt:
"Australia is important to China as a source of strategic minerals and food, it hosts three of China's BeiDou global navigation stations (https://www.spaceindustry.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/State-of-Space-report-2016.pdf), and is influential in Pacific and Antarctic affairs, as well as being an important player internationally. Australia should be confident that China will also be looking for common points in the relationship, and will understand that the tongue war is damaging its international reputation. We can expect that it will eventually trail off, as China's many other tongue wars (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2172855.stm) have done."

Davexl

02-12-2020, 05:19 PM

While President Xi remains in power - it is time to decouple from China...

China’s hard line against Australia is a lesson for us all

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/12/01/commentary/world-commentary/china-hard-line-australia/

Davexl

03-12-2020, 12:27 PM

I'm confused - On the one hand, NZ is being berated as a member of Five-Eyes by the
Chinese Foreign Ministry, very crudely, with a very mild rebuke from Foreign Minister Mahuta,

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-zealand-foreign-minister-nanaia-mahuta-pushes-back-on-chinas-five-eyes-warning/Z4NMF5ESX3X5VFXYIR27BUIYOE/

and on the other hand China is promoting itself as all sweetness and light with a vision for all mankind,

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/new-opportunities-for-china-new-zealand-cooperation
(Paid subscribers only)

All at the same time!!??

Excerpt from Ambassador Wu Xi:

"In the years ahead, China will continue to hold high the banner of peace,
development, cooperation and mutual benefits, strive to create a favorable
external environment and promote the building of a new type of
international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind."

Perhaps the CCP is in turmoil and can't get its messaging right??

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

'Weak': Chinese President Xi Jinping's huge leadership problem

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/weak-chinese-president-xi-jinpings-huge-leadership-problem/LO7A6WIAKWGC2NWRDY7AS3UQFA/

Excerpt:
"Retail sales are up, but not as much as expected and the government has delayed setting a new target for economic growth.
Unemployment is widely thought to be higher than the official figures and the gap between rich and poor is widening.

Some within China are also deeply uncomfortable with the government's "wolf warrior" diplomacy that has led to the country's reputation being trashed."

"The fact that professors from top academic institutions – including the party's own national training centre – are calling Xi's leadership a failure, urging his removal from power, and explicitly envisioning a transition to a more democratic political system is simply incredible," Cook wrote in The Diplomat.

"It indicates that Xi is facing a serious crisis of faith within the party, even if no one has the power to act on it at present."

Davexl

06-12-2020, 02:39 PM

Some aspects of Sino-U.S. ties 'beyond repair,' China state media warn

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/04/asia-pacific/us-china-relations-media/

Excerpt:
"China’s ambassador to the United States became the latest of the Asian nation’s senior officials to signal a desire
to reset the increasingly confrontational relationship as U.S. President-elect Joe Biden prepares to take office in January.

“There are always differences between the two countries. None of them justifies confrontation and war, cold or hot,” Cui Tiankai said on Twitter."

Davexl

07-12-2020, 03:34 PM

Japan to put new Aegis radars on warships after cancelling ground stations: Asahi

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-defence-aegis/japan-to-put-new-aegis-radars-on-warships-after-cancelling-ground-stations-asahi-idUSKBN28H041

Davexl

07-12-2020, 03:35 PM

Biden officials to look to repair alliances and help mend Tokyo-Seoul ties

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/06/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-asia-japan-south-korea/

Davexl

07-12-2020, 03:39 PM

Invasion killer: Taiwan’s new subs can pack a punch

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/death-from-below-taiwans-new-subs-a-formidable-force/

GTM 3442

08-12-2020, 09:54 AM

A view from the fringes of the military-industrial complex?

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu//Portals/10/JIPA/IndoPacificPerspectives/December%202020.html?source=GovD

Davexl

08-12-2020, 02:35 PM

Historic parallels for NZ also?

The threats to Australia’s economy and democracy are grave but not insurmountable

https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-threats-to-australia-s-economy-and-democracy-are-grave-but-not-insurmountable-20201207-p56l7o.html

Excerpt:
"China’s Xi Jinping has made a strategic decision to put Australia’s sovereignty to a sustained test.
It’s a political, economic and cyber confrontation so far. We’ve not been so tested since World War II."

Davexl

08-12-2020, 02:42 PM

Nato has only recently woken up...

NATO boss says China challenge too great for US alonehttps://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/nato-boss-says-china-challenge-too-great-for-us-alone-20201207-p56lg9.html

Excerpt:
"So I strongly believe that NATO also should be a platform to help create a community of like-minded democracies
and that's the reason why we've been reaching out to our partners in the Asia-Pacific: Japan, South Korea,
Australia and New Zealand and we met with them actually last week at the foreign ministerial meeting."

Davexl

08-12-2020, 02:56 PM

A view from the fringes of the military-industrial complex?

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu//Portals/10/JIPA/IndoPacificPerspectives/December%202020.html?source=GovD

"Indo-Pacific Perspectives"

An excellent summary of the differing viewpoints held by the various power blocks within the "Indo Pacific".
Especially the more nuanced engagement with China by Japan and ASEAN, vs the currently more strident assertions of the US.

Also the relative compliance by China with the "rules based order" in the Indian Ocean theatre,
vs its rejection of the 2016 PCA ruling under UNCLOS in favour of the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Excellent reading - highly recommended...Thanks GTM 3442...

Excerpt:
"Multipolarity with shared commitment to multilateralism has the potential to make the Indo-Pacific
peaceful, predictable, and rules-oriented.

The task of the new US President Joe Biden is to undo Trump’s legacy, which undermined
the cause of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific; salvage US leadership and influence;
and resuscitate multilateralism for the common good.

At the same time, it is necessary for other powers to engage both the United States and
China to prevent the Indo-Pacific region from becoming a theater of the “new cold war,”
and to ensure that freedom and openness across the region are enough to abate the
risk of coercion and instability."

Dr. Ngaibiakching (Indonesia)

Davexl

08-12-2020, 04:23 PM

China's record November will further unsettle Australia and the US

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-record-november-will-further-unsettle-australia-and-the-us-20201208-p56lkr.html

Excerpts:
"The pandemic has had most of China’s major trading partners reviewing their reliance on its manufacturing base and supply chains
for medical equipment and supplies and other critical goods, so a Biden call for a collective approach to China might fall on fertile ground,
particularly now the world has seen how destructive it can be for individual economies to get on China’s wrong side."

"Last week the US Congress, in a bipartisan bill, presented legislation that allows for funding of a new "Pacific Deterrence" initiative
to demonstrate America’s commitment to protecting its interests in the Pacific and requires the regional military commander to deliver
annual reports on his forces needs to maintain military advantage over China."

Davexl

13-12-2020, 01:05 PM

Well China on the surface level has "taken" Hong Kong. Wonder when Taiwan will be - could be?

What's Taiwan's state of readiness?

How China is trying to subdue Taiwan with 'gray-zone' warfare

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/11/asia-pacific/china-taiwan-gray-zone-warfare/

Excerpts:
"There are signs that the Tsai administration is working to boost readiness and firepower and to reform the reserves. In October, Yen revealed a proposal to build a better trained force within the reserves, made up of 268,000 troops, who could be “immediately” mobilized to join the standing military in an emergency. In the annual Han Kuang Exercise held in July in central Taiwan, two battalions of reservists were called up to take part in a live-fire artillery drill with regular units. A senior Taiwan official familiar with the island’s security planning said the United States had been urging the military to include the reservists in the drill."

and,

"Before his retirement last year, Lee proposed that the island avoid a war of attrition with a massively powerful China. Instead, Lee suggests Taiwan prepare to absorb PLA missile and air strikes. The key, he argues, is to preserve the ability to strike back at an invading force despite the likely loss of major conventional hardware, including big warships and jet fighters.

At the heart of Lee’s proposal are several changes. One, Taiwan should maintain a small number of large, expensive weapons to preserve public morale and counter Beijing’s gray-zone operations. At the same time, though, the island should bristle with big numbers of smaller, cheaper but lethal weapons, including mobile anti-ship missiles, portable anti-aircraft missiles, advanced sea mines and fast missile boats. Camouflaged and dispersed in urban, coastal, jungle and mountain areas, these weapons would be harder for PLA forces to find and destroy and could pummel an invasion force well before it reached land."

Davexl

13-12-2020, 02:40 PM

Austin signals new ‘strategic patience’ with China Biden defense secretary pick expected to take less confrontational tack to coalition-building against China than under Trump

by Richard Javad Heydarian

(https://asiatimes.com/author/richard-javad-heydarian/) (https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/austin-signals-new-strategic-patience-with-china/)https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/austin-signals-new-strategic-patience-with-china/

Excerpt:
"Core to his military philosophy is a profound appreciation of the complexity of threats and challenges confronting
the US in the 21st century, a stark contrast with the position of both liberal hawks as well as the Trump administration.

While this could mean a dialing down of America’s military tensions with rivals such as China, it also signals the Biden administration’s
efforts to assemble a more robust and enduring coalition to constrain what are viewed by Washington as Beijing’s worst instincts."

Davexl

15-12-2020, 12:32 PM

No relief: How Biden's new trade chief will keep the pressure on China

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/no-relief-how-biden-s-new-trade-chief-will-keep-the-pressure-on-china-20201214-p56n94.html

Excerpt:
"For China, a coalition of the larger part of the global economy would be far more threatening to its ambitions than Trump's unilateralist approach and would make it more difficult for it to isolate and target individual economies – as it has done with its trade sanctions on Australian exports – than is now the case."

and,

"The (Chinese) steel mills are panicking, calling in Australia iron ore suppliers to question them about the prices, suspecting manipulation even though the Pilbara producers haven't reduced their production. Potential disruption to future volumes generated by the fallout from Rio Tinto's destruction of the Juukan Gorge caves might also be playing a role in the price spike.

In any event, the combination of the soaring prices of both iron ore and coal are threatening to throttle the profitability of China's steel and energy industries. Efforts being attempted to get the power companies to cap the price of the coal they buy, or trying to revisit the way in which iron ore is priced, are fruitless."

Davexl

15-12-2020, 04:12 PM

While Australia chooses a muscular relationship with a newly aggressive China, ours is a quiet but determined independence,
says Anne-Marie Brady

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108394/while-australia-chooses-muscular-relationship-newly-aggressive-china-ours-quiet?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+ December+2020

(https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/108394/while-australia-chooses-muscular-relationship-newly-aggressive-china-ours-quiet?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+ December+2020)Excerpt:
"We are positioned in a better place

New Zealand has a solid foundation of positive political relations with Beijing, which should mean that any matters of contention can be discussed and resolved amicably. When then National Party leader Simon Bridges visited China in September 2019, he was told by a senior Politburo leader that New Zealand-China relations were at a “historic best (https://twitter.com/Anne_MarieBrady/status/1221342135766568963)” - under the Ardern first term government.

Last week, in his first phone call to New Zealand’s new foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi repeated an often-said flattery that New Zealand-China relations were an “example (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113589/china-australia-relations-could-new-zealand-show-way-better)” to other states."

GTM 3442

15-12-2020, 04:56 PM

I was under the impression that Australian coal was off the menu. . .

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/14/china-formalises-cut-to-australias-coal-imports-state-media-reports

Davexl

15-12-2020, 05:04 PM

Australia's iron ore situation, and it geostrategic importance...

As Australia's relationship with China deteriorates beyond repair, we need to find new trade partners

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/australia-has-to-look-beyond-china-as-relationship-breaks-down/12979900?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+ December+2020

(https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-14/australia-has-to-look-beyond-china-as-relationship-breaks-down/12979900?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+15+ December+2020)Excerpt:
"The only Australian product that will not attract any penalty from Beijing, for possibly a decade, is iron ore (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-06/china-row-sparks-wa-iron-ore-fears-but-no-need-to-panic-analysis/12948524). It is the vital ingredient for China's ongoing infrastructure stimulus programs. Without it, China would struggle to maintain economic growth. That, in turn, would endanger employment and social stability, a prospect that sends shudders through Chinese Communist Party leadership."

jr1973

16-12-2020, 09:32 AM

Quick question to this forum. Call me crazy if you like but let me run a scenario past you. Let's just say for S and Giggles that Trump wins. What is that likely to do to the NZ market? US market is pricing in a Biden Admin with a Yellen Fed and a Republican Senate = very bullish US markets. Will $$ move to US bonds? Gold? Remember bonds and gold are acting like stocks at the moment. Personally I expect a sharp drop in markets with a quick rally although lower than now. Implications are there WAS massive fraud and the Dems/RINO's would be screwed - massive social unrest and possible conflict with China (pretty bleak). This is not political - I don't care who wins really. Just thinking about the financial side of it.

Thoughts?

Davexl

17-12-2020, 12:51 PM

China's treatment of Australia is a 'sign of things to come' for world, says John Bolton

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-s-treatment-of-australia-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-for-world-says-john-bolton-20201217-p56o62.html (http://https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-s-treatment-of-australia-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-for-world-says-john-bolton-20201217-p56o62.html)

Excerpt:
"China was trying to separate Australia from its strategic ally the United States, just as it had attempted to do with Canada,
when it detained the two Michaels more than two years ago, (https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p56m5j) following the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou
in Vancouver, at the United States request, Bolton said."

"It was obviously intended to split Canada from the United States, to split Australia from the United States."

"This is the way China behaves now. How are they going to behave when they become more powerful?
This is a sign of things to come."

GTM 3442

17-12-2020, 01:07 PM

Davexl

17-12-2020, 03:21 PM

Troubled Waters: Where the U.S. and China Could Clash in the South China Sea

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-south-china-sea-miscalculation/?srnd=premium-asia (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-south-china-sea-miscalculation/?srnd=premium-asia)

Excerpt:
"Still, those arguments aren’t likely to hold much water with the Biden administration. Many members of his national security team
vividly recall Xi Jinping telling Barack Obama that China had no intention of militarizing land structures in the South China Sea when
the two leaders met at the White House in 2015."

Davexl

17-12-2020, 03:46 PM

Where the Geopolitical Rubber really hits the road - What perhaps should have happened for a safer Mult-Polar world?

Germany opens the door to Huawei, with conditions

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/germany-opens-the-door-to-huawei-with-conditions/ (https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/germany-opens-the-door-to-huawei-with-conditions/)
Excerpt:
"In a November post on Huawei’s website, the company’s chief security officer Andy Purdy (https://www.huawei.com/us/facts/news-opinions/2019/america-should-embrace-huawei-and-new-testing-standards) wrote,

“Other countries embrace uniform testing across vendors – not discriminating on their country of origin… Huawei also opened a testing center in Bonn, Germany last November and another in Brussels earlier this year. It should be able to open similar centers in the US. At the very least, the US should take an approach similar to how Germany encouraged all telecom vendors to establish independent verification labs where third-party experts could vet code for vulnerabilities.”

jr1973

18-12-2020, 06:34 AM

Buy land.
Land and gold.
Land. and gold and a gun.

Thank you for the reply. Appreciated

Davexl

20-12-2020, 12:36 PM

Ignoring the idiot and possibly Russian compromised Trump, this could be a major developing story,
SolarWinds is network management software very commonly used by all kinds of organisations globally,
(including in New Zealand)

Trump contradicts Pompeo, plays down alleged Russian role in cyberattack

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/19/trump-contradicts-pompeo-plays-down-alleged-russian-role-in-hack.html

A slightly more technical discussion for those inclined here:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/cyber-hack-against-us-a-grave-threat-security-agency-says/WGFCTKZRN44IKHRC5Z2ZUYKOUA/

Excerpt:
"Russia has been a sensitive topic for Trump. An investigation led by Robert Mueller found (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/24/robert-mueller-testimony-opening-statement-on-trump-russia-probe.html) that the Russian government had interfered in the 2016 election that resulted in Trump becoming president. Trump said in 2019 (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/14/trump-says-he-never-worked-for-russia-following-explosive-report-of-fbi-probe.html) that he had never worked for Russia, after The New York Times reported the Federal Bureau of Investigation had begun looking into whether he had become influenced by the Kremlin."

"Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican representing Florida, said in a Saturday tweet that it was “increasingly clear that Russian intelligence conducted the gravest cyber intrusion in our history.”

GTM 3442

21-12-2020, 05:13 PM

Green tea or green cheese?

https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/why-is-china-going-to-the-moon/

Davexl

21-12-2020, 05:27 PM

Bit more of the background, including WTO maneuverings...

Huawei documents reveal China's grievance against Australia

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/huawei-documents-reveal-china-s-grievance-against-australia-20201218-p56oq2.html

GTM 3442

22-12-2020, 08:23 AM

As Australia frets about the Torres Strait. . .

https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/pacific-island-nations-wary-of-chinese-fishing-fleets/

Davexl

01-01-2021, 03:12 PM

China wants Australia relationship back on track 'as early as possible'

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-wants-australia-relationship-back-on-track-as-early-as-possible-20201229-p56qr2.html

Excerpt:
"Rory Medcalf, head of ANU's National Security Colleges, warned that Wang's comments should "not be over-interpreted as some kind of positive signal".

"They are at best mild and conditional," Medcalf said. "Of course it’s nice at one level to receive some hint that China too would like a stable relationship, but the bottom line is that Wang’s words still place all the responsibility on Australia.

"There’s no admission that China bears any fault in the deterioration in ties, or even acknowledgement that it is using ongoing coercive measures – economic restrictions or hostage diplomacy – against countries like Australia and Canada."

Davexl

02-01-2021, 09:36 PM

What really happened in Wuhan:

25 days that changed the world: How COVID-19 slipped China’s grasp

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/31/asia-pacific/china-coronavirus-missteps/

despite Foreign Minister Wang Yi's CCP lies

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa/china-senior-diplomat-says-u-s-relations-at-new-crossroads-idUSKBN29702U

Excerpt:
“We raced against time, and were the earliest to report the epidemic to the world,” he said.
“More and more studies show that the epidemic very probably emerged in many places throughout the world.”

Davexl

02-01-2021, 10:05 PM

After weeks of escalation and threatening language, the Defense Department is sending mixed messages as the anniversary of the death of an Iranian general nears.

In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/us/politics/iran-trump.html

Excerpt:
But critics said the mixed messaging was another example of the inexperience and confusing decision-making at the Pentagon since Mr. Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/us/politics/esper-defense-secretary.html) and several of his top aides in November, and replaced them with Mr. Miller, a former White House counterterrorism aide, and several Trump loyalists.

“This decision sends at best a mixed signal to Iran, and reduces our range of options at precisely the wrong time,” said Matthew Spence, a former top Pentagon Middle East policy official. “It calls into serious question what the administration’s strategy is here.”

Davexl

03-01-2021, 01:11 PM

Well, somebody had to ask the question...

"Is it time to sell our seat on Five Eyes?"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300196607/is-it-time-to-sell-our-seat-on-five-eyes

Excerpt:
"My big worry is that our officials at the Government Communications Security Bureau and New Zealand Defence Force will be wined and dined by the Americans, and they won’t want to give up this unearned status. They will advise our government just how important it is to stay in the Five Eyes, when we really should sell our seat there to our old enemy, Japan, and pursue an independent role free of commitment to either China or America."

My own personal reaction to this brief article FWIW, is that this is an exceedingly cynical view of the value of our Five Eyes membership, and is likely coloured by the abominable recent political actions of the Trump "regime". It does not take account of the upcoming Biden government, which is likely to be based on intelligent, measured and disciplined policy settings that are diametrically opposite to what we witnessed over the last four years.

It misrepresents the nature of our "long term" shared culture & values with the US and the sacrifices made to sustain those values over the last 75 years.

NZ has been free-riding in our defence commitment for most of the last 40 years and has been one of the major benefactors of the US nuclear shield over even more of that time, (whatever you think of the sanity of it or not - it worked!) as a guarantor of peace against a third nuclear war.

Yes, the US has made mistakes in Iraq, and we (perhaps?) shouldn't have intervened in Vietnam, but these comments are casually made in full hind-site, not within decisions taken in the context of the times.

There is a real cost to be born if NZ were to go full independent. For a start it would probably need to quadruple its defence spending, rather than merely double it (and reinstate it's strike wing) as it needs to today. An independent NZ would need a credible defence capability to defend itself ON ITS OWN bat, as Australia would no longer be interested as it would no longer be an allie of NZ and has enormous defence considerations of its own, which it is taking seriously to implement.

Whether we like it or not, NZ can never put up a CREDIBLE defence commitment on it's own against the clear and present threat that China presents as it subsumes Democracy in Hong Kong, and threatens Taiwan directly in the Geopolitical context of Democracy vs a CCP Totalitarian system of governance. And will China stop there or directly threaten other Democratic regimes under President Xi ? We don't know for sure, which is why we have Defence commitments and alliances with more powerful nations like the US and Australia (as we currently have) in the first place!

A view to which I strongly subscribe written by an American military scholar, ML Cavanaugh (with strong NZ links) is presented here:

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age"

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly (https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly)

Waltzing

03-01-2021, 01:27 PM

Davexl

03-01-2021, 02:39 PM

NZ - the new Switzerland of the pacific. Banking capital of the pacific. Dont think the locals want to be neutral yet. Its pretty simple, NZ access to the western markets will be at stake. Those trade deals will get left at the bottom of the rubbish bin.

Its doubtful we could afford a air force anymore. Prehaps some old second hand f16's? I dont think the budget could even extend to that. Rent some f35's for some training at a base in australia for a few months a year?

NZ is a small pacific chain island almost fishing, cow farm out post of the empire. With Brexit it wont be long before the UK trade minister is back here in the pacific creating the old clipper routes.

NZ could easily afford an air force, but does it have the will? NZ used to comfortably sustain 4 frigates in the navy and a strike wing, and remains a reasonably rich and modern Western country compared to many other poorer counties with sizeable defence forces. Yes we have fallen down from 3rd in the OECD but not out of it - yet...:)

Davexl

03-01-2021, 05:10 PM

Japan to play placeholder role in Asia as Biden gets his house in order

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/01/national/japan-asia-biden-coronavirus/

Excerpt:
"Even if the CPTPP is not high on Biden’s agenda now, Japan and the U.S. can cooperate on digital trade, supply chains and climate change, said Wendy Cutler, vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

If the two countries make progress on those issues at an early stage, she said it would help restore U.S. trust in the region as a reliable partner and could even build momentum for the world’s No. 1 economy to reconsider participating in a revised CPTPP."

Davexl

03-01-2021, 05:16 PM

‘Erdogan should be very, very worried’: What the Biden presidency means for Turkey

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/31/what-the-biden-presidency-means-for-turkey-and-erdogan-post-trump.html

Excerpt:
"Among those are human rights in Turkey, which Democrats in particular have spoken out against; Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile system which angered its NATO allies and nearly triggered U.S. sanctions; and its military action against America’s Kurdish allies in northern Syria and support for Islamic extremist groups, which Ankara argues are not terrorists and are necessary to protect its interests in the region.

There are also Erdogan’s aggressive moves against Greece and Cyprus over gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean; Turkey’s alleged role in helping Iran skirt U.S. sanctions; and the shared Incirlik air base, where Turkey hosts a huge number of American troops, aircraft and some 50 of its nuclear warheads — and which Erdogan has threatened to cut off if hit with U.S. sanctions."

Waltzing

03-01-2021, 06:13 PM

GTM 3442

04-01-2021, 04:57 PM

In which BlackRock squint uneasily toward the rising sun. . .

https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/interactive-charts/geopolitical-risk-dashboard

GTM 3442

04-01-2021, 05:10 PM

"NZ could easily afford an air force"

NZ does have an air force. But running a modern fighter fleet costs a lot of money. With govt funds under pressure im not sure the country could afford anything other than a few seconds hand f16's. I remember the budget only just covering the old sky hawks.

average flight hours have been extended on those later models but second hand your getting aircraft with big maintenance costs coming.

Perhaps adding a costal submarine fleet bit like the super quiet european fleets being developed. Just in case a defensive option is needed from an invasion fleet from the likes of china?

well on off days it can help with fisheries patrol as global warming and over fishing means russian and chinses, japanese fishing boats head this way.

On other days it could earn it ways by it divers practising catching lobsters, big demand at the moment from china.

Probably best to forget the wet-dream fantasies of fighter planes and concentrate on long range maritime role with aircraft and UAVs selected for inter-operability and cooperation with Australia.

Base it on a dozen P8s with supporting UAVs and you probably wouldn't go too far wrong if you did that upgrade in association with an Aegis Ashore system to keep the whizz-bang geeks happy.

Davexl

04-01-2021, 05:29 PM

Thought provoking Book Review...

Why China is anti-fragile

Dan Blumenthal illustrates by negative example how utterly wrongheaded Washington's strategic approach has been

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/why-china-is-anti-fragile/

Excerpt:
"China’s comparative success in controlling the pandemic astonished the West. After some early bumbling by local party officials, China used its real-time locational data for smartphones to isolate individual cases, and fed this mass of information from smartphones into artificial intelligence servers which calculated the probability of new infection clusters. A Chinese government think tank published a detailed report on Beijing’s high-tech response on March 24, ignored at the time by a West that couldn’t believe it was happening. China reportedly has had virtually no new Covid-19 cases since April, apart from a few localized outbreaks quickly isolated and extinguished. Western commentators no longer gloat about China’s “Chernobyl moment.”

Davexl

04-01-2021, 05:55 PM

In Reversal, Pentagon Announces Aircraft Carrier Nimitz to Remain in Middle East

The acting defense secretary abruptly reversed his previous order to redeploy the Nimitz, which he had done over the objections of his top military advisers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/world/middleeast/trump-iran-carrier-nimitz.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/world/middleeast/trump-iran-carrier-nimitz.html)

Excerpt:

“Due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other U.S. government officials, I have ordered the U.S.S. Nimitz to halt its routine redeployment,” Mr. Miller said in a statement on Sunday night (https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2460938/statement-by-acting-secretary-miller-on-iranian-threats-and-the-uss-nimitz/source/GovDelivery/).

United States intelligence agencies have assessed for months that Iran is seeking to target senior American military officers and civilian leaders to avenge the death of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, in an American drone strike one year ago (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/middleeast/qassem-soleimani-iraq-iran-attack.html?searchResultPosition=2).

"American intelligence analysts in recent days say they have detected Iranian air defenses, maritime forces and other security units on high alert. They have also determined that Iran has moved more short-range missiles and drones into Iraq.

But senior Defense Department officials acknowledge they cannot tell if Iran or its Shiite proxies in Iraq are readying to strike American troops or are preparing defensive measures in case Mr. Trump orders a pre-emptive attack against them."

Davexl

05-01-2021, 12:48 PM

We are indeed living in surreal and extraordinarily dangerous times with the United States in unprecedented turmoil...

(https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/04/us/joe-biden-trump#former-defense-secretaries-warn-using-the-military-to-settle-the-election-would-be-unlawful-and-unconstitutional)Former defense secretaries warn using the military to settle the election would be ‘unlawful’ and ‘unconstitutional.’

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/04/us/joe-biden-trump#former-defense-secretaries-warn-using-the-military-to-settle-the-election-would-be-unlawful-and-unconstitutional
(https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/04/us/joe-biden-trump#former-defense-secretaries-warn-using-the-military-to-settle-the-election-would-be-unlawful-and-unconstitutional)
Excerpt:
“Efforts to involve the U.S. armed forces in resolving election disputes would take us into dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory,” they wrote. “Civilian and military officials who direct or carry out such measures would be accountable, including potentially facing criminal penalties, for the grave consequences of their actions on our republic.”

Retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, the former national security adviser whom Mr. Trump recently pardoned (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/us/politics/michael-flynn-pardon.html), suggested on the conservative television network Newsmax last month that Mr. Trump could use the military to “rerun” the election in swing states, and later attended a meeting with the president (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/us/politics/trump-sidney-powell-voter-fraud.html) at the White House.

(https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/04/us/joe-biden-trump#former-defense-secretaries-warn-using-the-military-to-settle-the-election-would-be-unlawful-and-unconstitutional)Hell - just read the NYTimes!

eg. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/04/world/europe/brad-raffensperger-trump-call.html

Excerpt:
BRUSSELS — President Trump’s extraordinary, wheedling telephone call (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/us/politics/trump-raffensperger-call-georgia.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) to state officials in Georgia seeking to overturn the election results there has shaken many Europeans — not so much for what it reveals about Mr. Trump himself, but for what it may portend for the health of American democracy.

Foreign leaders are looking forward, but many worry that the Trump effect will last for years, damaging trust in American predictability and reliability.

“A lot of people will just roll their eyes and wait for the clock to run down,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas program at Chatham House, the British research institution. “But by far the most troubling thing is the number of Republicans who are willing to go along with him, and what it’s doing to the Republican Party, playing out in real time.”

A group of House Republicans has vowed to challenge Biden’s Electoral College win on Wednesday when Congress meets to certify it, and at least a dozen Republican senators are expected to join them, forcing a vote though it is all but certain to fail.
The dangers that entails for foreign allies are manifold and will not be easily dispelled even with a new president. But they are raising special concerns before Mr. Trump exits.

Patrick Chevallereau, a former French military officer now at RUSI, a defense research institution in London, said that the Trump call (https://twitter.com/pchev999/status/1346037631059165184) “shows that the current president is in a mind-set to do anything — absolutely anything — before Jan. 20. There is zero standard, zero reference, zero ethics.”

And Laurence Nardon, head of the North America program at the French Institute of International Relations in Paris, said that America’s soft power and democratic example is damaged by Mr. Trump’s behavior.
But he added, “I think we have understood that his practice of power is an exception, even if his election is not an accident.”
— Steven Erlanger (https://www.nytimes.com/by/steven-erlanger)

World leaders “all know that Trump is sort of crazy, but it’s the extremity of his actions, the lengths to which he has gone, that he got 74 million votes and is not retiring but will be a force for the Republicans” that is disconcerting, he added. “People knew what Trump is like, but the importance is the shadow of the future.”

Jean-Marie Guéhenno, a former French and United Nations diplomat who is president of the International Crisis Group, asked (https://twitter.com/JGuehenno/status/1345943524831862784) on Twitter: “Should we be reassured on U.S. democracy when 10 former defense secretaries warn against use of the military to dispute election results, or terrified that they believe taking a public stance has become necessary?”

GTM 3442

05-01-2021, 06:49 PM

I think it would be a mistake to think of President Trump as a one-off event, or a singularity. I think he's better seen as a data point on a trajectory. . . but where to?

Norwest

07-01-2021, 09:17 AM

Chinese cities reportedly go dark as country faces shortage of coal, a major Australian export

Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.

Analysts said prices of the commodity in the country have shot up due to the reported crunch and some tie the shortages and blackouts to the unofficial ban on Australian coal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/chinese-cities-go-dark-amid-shortage-of-coal-a-key-australian-export.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/chinese-cities-go-dark-amid-shortage-of-coal-a-key-australian-export.html)

Davexl

07-01-2021, 01:48 PM

Can't believe this has been happening in the US. Is this the end of something or the beginning...

Live Capitol News Tracker

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/06/us/electoral-vote?auth=login-email&login=email#pompeo-condemns-violence-as-world-leaders-offer-strong-reactions-to-the-scene-in-washington

Waltzing

07-01-2021, 01:52 PM

of course its happening. All those nit wits with guns. One protestor said next time they are bringing their guns. Shoot out at the capital. Expecting this for ages. Twitter account of the crump turned off. No one taking orders from Trump. What they did to Assange is nothing compared to what they will do the idiots that took over offices and may have brought explosives.

Davexl

07-01-2021, 01:55 PM

More on the mayhem and the resumption of "democracy"

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/congress-electoral-college-vote-count-2021/index.html

Waltzing

07-01-2021, 02:04 PM

Hollywood is going to have more movies to make than it has actors to fill the roles.

Davexl

07-01-2021, 02:12 PM

DC attorney general calls on Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump

From CNN's Josiah Ryan
https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/e9a49054-b42c-4d4f-86a7-074344f67cb4.jpgIn this December 9, 2019 file photo, US Vice President Mike Pence listens to US President Donald Trump in the Cabinet Room in Washington. Mark Wilson/Getty Images

The Attorney General for the District of Columbia Karl Racine called on Vice President Mike Pence to organize the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove President Trump from office.

"Whether you like Vice President Pence or not, the fact is he is more fit for office... we need a commander-in-chief that will fulfill his constitutional responsibilities," he told CNN tonight.

"I would ask the vice president, please go the next step," continued Racine. "Do your constitutional duty. Protect America, stand up for democracy, and invoke the 25th Amendment.

"That requires Vice President Pence to move and get a majority of the Cabinet or majority of the Congress to immediately remove the President because he so clearly is not fit for office," said Racine, earlier in the conversation.

Waltzing

07-01-2021, 02:16 PM

Day of infamy. They will be handed criminal prosecutions and no place will they feel safe.

Davexl

07-01-2021, 03:25 PM

Growing number of Republicans say they believe Trump should be removed from office

From CNN's Michael Warren and Jamie Gangel

After violent pro-Trump protesters stormed the US Capitol (https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/06/politics/donald-trump-capitol-mob/index.html) on Wednesday, a growing number of Republican leaders told CNN that they believe Donald Trump should be removed from office before Jan. 20. Four of them called for the 25th Amendment to be invoked, and two others said the President should be impeached.

"He has to be impeached and removed," said one current Republican elected official.
A former senior official said the President's actions were egregious enough to remove him even with such a short time left in his tenure.
"I think this has been huge a shock to the system," said the former official. "How do you keep him in place for two weeks after this?"

By impeaching and removing Trump, even at this late stage of his term, the Senate could subsequently vote to disqualify Trump from ever holding federal office again.

On the other hand, invoking the 25th Amendment would require Vice President Mike Pence and a majority of the Cabinet to vote to remove Trump from office due to his inability to "discharge the powers and duties of his office" — an unprecedented step.

Keep reading here (https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/06/politics/trump-capitol-impeachment-25-amendment/index.html).

GTM 3442

07-01-2021, 03:36 PM

. . . Press the pedal to the metal.

So after Michigan we have Washington.

What do we have after Washington? Or do we stay in Washington and wait for the inauguration?

After all, is there a President if there's no Inauguration?

Waltzing

07-01-2021, 03:40 PM

loose cannon in the white house...its a dangerous time, resignations coming soon from the white house including perhaps our boy Chris.

Portfolios are at risk.

Leftfield

07-01-2021, 03:44 PM

Some say...."give a liar enough rope and they'll hang themselves."

Perhaps the 'Liar-in-chief' might have just hung himself.

Davexl

07-01-2021, 03:49 PM

Liddel considering resigning...

Top White House national security officials are considering resigning

From CNN's Jake Tapper, Kaitlan Collins, Kylie Atwood and Vivian Salama

https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/49d91ade-febe-4d2f-842b-d64518770473.jpg

U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien addresses the press during a meeting with Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil, amidst the coronavirus pandemic at the Itamaraty Palace on October 20, 2020 in Brasilia, Brazil. Andressa Anholete/Getty Images

Several of President Trump's top aides, including national security adviser Robert O'Brien, are considering resigning in the wake of his response to a pro-Trump mob breaching the US Capitol today.

O'Brien, deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, and deputy chief of staff Chris Liddell are all considering resigning, according to multiple sources familiar. Pottinger's resignation appears to be imminent while others could sleep on it.

Earlier Wednesday, O’Brien took the unusual step of defending Vice President Mike Pence as President Trump has been more consumed by his refusal to do his bidding today than the mob that breached Capitol Hill. O'Brien says he showed courage today as Trump lambasted him.

"I just spoke with Vice President Pence. He is a genuinely fine and decent man. He exhibited courage today as he did at the Capitol on 9/11 as a Congressman. I am proud to serve with him," O'Brien said

O’Brien, Pottinger and Liddle did not immediately respond to request for comment.

Davexl

07-01-2021, 04:47 PM

No kidding!

America’s Friends Express Horror and Shock as Capitol Attack ‘Shakes the World’

Global leaders watched live as a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol, and many saw it as a warning to global democracies, placing the blame squarely on President Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/06/world/europe/trump-capitol-2020-election-mob.html

Waltzing

07-01-2021, 05:47 PM

The GFC for some in the US was a straw to heavy and they went over the cliff. Nothing you could say would make them believe from that point on. At the time we thought yes here we go.

Marilyn Munroe

07-01-2021, 07:59 PM

President elect Biden should consult Belarus President Luxashenko on how to hang on to office if a large percentage of the population be leaves your election was fraudulent.

One of Americas greatest Presidents said; "A house divided cannot stand."

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Davexl

07-01-2021, 08:17 PM

Biden’s security adviser gives a foreign policy preview

Incoming National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan suggests shifts in China and Iran policies and more engagement with Russia

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/bidens-security-adviser-gives-a-foreign-policy-preview/

Davexl

07-01-2021, 08:35 PM

Japan and U.S. to boost defense ties with Europe in Indo-Pacific

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/05/national/japan-us-europe-indo-pacific/

Davexl

08-01-2021, 12:37 PM

Lies, lies & more lies - what else...

Trump Pledges an Orderly Transition to a Biden Presidency

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-07/trump-offers-assurance-of-orderly-transition-to-biden-presidency

greater fool

08-01-2021, 01:05 PM

I think it would be a mistake to think of President Trump as a one-off event, or a singularity. I think he's better seen as a data point on a trajectory. . . but where to?

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/capitol-chaos-is-just-the-first-act-the-republican-party-is-shattered-and-civility-is-not-coming-back-20210107-p56sdw.html

"Professor Michael Beckley in Foreign Affairs predicts Trump's influence will persist in a US diplomacy owing nothing to liberal internationalism and all to transactional national interest."

"The German playwright Bertolt Brecht in his satire on the rise of Hitler issued a warning with these brutal lines:

"Do not rejoice in his defeat you men
For though the world stood up and stopped the bastard
The bitch that bore him is on heat again."

In this menacing spirit one of the pro-Trump demonstrators left a note on Nancy Pelosi's desk, "We will not back down.""

GTM 3442

08-01-2021, 02:49 PM

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/capitol-chaos-is-just-the-first-act-the-republican-party-is-shattered-and-civility-is-not-coming-back-20210107-p56sdw.html

"Professor Michael Beckley in Foreign Affairs predicts Trump's influence will persist in a US diplomacy owing nothing to liberal internationalism and all to transactional national interest."

"The German playwright Bertolt Brecht in his satire on the rise of Hitler issued a warning with these brutal lines:

"Do not rejoice in his defeat you men
For though the world stood up and stopped the bastard
The bitch that bore him is on heat again."

In this menacing spirit one of the pro-Trump demonstrators left a note on Nancy Pelosi's desk, "We will not back down.""

Mmmmmmm. . . "Arturo Ui" is one of my favourite Brecht pieces. Clumsy, derivative, and blatant, but it has the advantage that it hasn't been focus-grouped into terminal inoffensive blandness.

But the pups have learned, over the years.

GTM 3442

09-01-2021, 08:34 PM

The Muslim Brothers check out the view from under the bus. . .

https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/uyghurs-wary-of-turkeys-pending-extradition-deal-with-china/

GTM 3442

10-01-2021, 08:56 AM

It's getting grim up north. . . how will we cope without Big Rocket Man?

https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/north-korea-without-nukes-how-does-it-measure-up/

Davexl

10-01-2021, 11:14 AM

‘Global Britain’ takes aim at China in South China Sea

China on a war footing in sight of UK's near-term plan to deploy new HMS Queen Elizabeth carrier to contested maritime area
by Richard Javad Heydarian

(https://asiatimes.com/author/richard-javad-heydarian/)https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/global-britain-takes-aim-at-china-in-south-china-sea/

Ship is likely to be based in Japan in the foreseeable future...

Excerpt:
"NATO and its global allies, the report suggests, “must devote much more time, political resources and action to the security challenges posed by China” and “should enhance its ability to coordinate strategy and safeguard allies’ security vis-à-vis China.”

Last September, Britain joined fellow European countries France and Germany in an unprecedented joint note verbale to the United Nations, where they openly criticized China’s perceived aggressive behavior in adjacent waters and reiterated the legitimate and lawful interests of other claimant states and external powers in accordance to (https://globalnation.inquirer.net/190953/uk-france-germany-refute-chinas-expansive-south-china-sea-claims) the 2016 arbitral tribunal’s ruling on the South China Sea."

Davexl

10-01-2021, 12:25 PM

Davexl

10-01-2021, 12:34 PM

The day America realized how dangerous Donald Trump is

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/09/politics/donald-trump-dangerous-capitol-riot/index.html

Excerpt:
"But as his supporters marched down Pennsylvania Avenue and began their assault on the Capitol, Trump had returned to the White House consumed with his schemes for overriding an election that he lost with 232 electoral votes to Biden's 306.

To the dismay of his aides, he delighted in watching the riot that injured dozens of officers and sent fears of a coup racing across the Capitol. Aides struggled to get him to understand how serious the situation had become.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/washington-dc-riots-trump-news-friday/h_95d77e729934a972b9a3000e731bee00), one of the President's staunchest allies, had a "heated exchange" with the President as rioters overran the Capitol building, urging him to denounce the attack and try to quell the violence, according to a source briefed on the exchange. But Trump declined to do so. Asked on Fox whether he expected Trump to address the situation, McCarthy said only: "I don't know."

greater fool

10-01-2021, 03:27 PM

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-10/us-toxic-politics-started-long-before-donald-trump-arrived/13042856

"Joe Biden has an opportunity to deliver change to America but nothing he has said thus far gives us any confidence he can reverse 40 years of drift,
despondency and disillusion.
After the mayhem of this week, all he has had to offer is the same old platitudes of coming together and respecting the rule of law.
This crisis demands more than Biden's appeal to decency and consensus. A return to politics as usual is not enough."

Davexl

10-01-2021, 08:27 PM

Davexl

10-01-2021, 10:04 PM

This might raise the temperature, leading up to the inauguration...

Pompeo lifts 'self-imposed restrictions' on U.S.-Taiwan relationship

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-diplomacy/pompeo-lifts-self-imposed-restrictions-on-u-s-taiwan-relationship-idUSKBN29E0Q6

Also,

Trump's Taiwan policy ends much as it started — by blowing up status quo

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/10/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/taiwan-us-china-pompeo-trump-biden/

Marilyn Munroe

10-01-2021, 11:26 PM

This might raise the temperature, leading up to the inauguration...

Pompeo lifts 'self-imposed restrictions' on U.S.-Taiwan relationship

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-diplomacy/pompeo-lifts-self-imposed-restrictions-on-u-s-taiwan-relationship-idUSKBN29E0Q6

This will cause consternation amongst New Zealand's rice Christians. They will have to become more anti-American than the radical left to prove themselves worthy of their stipend.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Davexl

11-01-2021, 12:05 PM

'Descended into madness': second Republican senator says Trump must go

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/10/donald-trump-capitol-attack-impeachment-abc-poll-majority-joe-biden

Excerpt:
"Crow, a former US army ranger, said he had “raised grave concerns about reports that active duty and reserve military members were involved in the insurrection” and asked that “troops deployed for the inauguration … are not sympathetic to domestic terrorists”. The readout said McCarthy agreed and said he was willing to testify publicly in the coming days."

Davexl

11-01-2021, 12:24 PM

A little reassurance is called for...

Why Wall Street can disregard protests, assassinations and riots

(http://https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/07/investing/stocks-civil-unrest-history/index.html)https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/07/investing/stocks-civil-unrest-history/index.html (http://https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/07/investing/stocks-civil-unrest-history/index.html)

Excerpt:
"That was the case in after the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963, during civil rights marches in the South in 1965, following Vietnam War protests in 1967 and outrage after Martin Luther King Jr. was killed in 1968.

Stocks were volatile during that tumultuous decade, and they often slipped in the wake of specific news events. But in each of those four years the S&P 500 wound up with a gain, with stocks up 14% annually on average."

GTM 3442

11-01-2021, 06:16 PM

Also,

Trump's Taiwan policy ends much as it started — by blowing up status quo

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/10/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/taiwan-us-china-pompeo-trump-biden/

Out of idle curiosity, was there anything worth preserving in the status quo ante?

Waltzing

12-01-2021, 10:15 AM

with armed protest in all 52 states possible some cash on hand for a dip might be an idea.

Davexl

12-01-2021, 11:42 AM

Out of idle curiosity, was there anything worth preserving in the status quo ante?

Probably not - with attitudes hardening on both sides. Unfortunately, that ups the risks for Taiwan another notch. They seem to be used to the pressure...

Davexl

12-01-2021, 12:33 PM

From one dangerous man to another...

Pompeo is laying ‘landmines’ in U.S.-China relations before Biden takes office, ex-Australian leader says

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/pompeo-is-laying-landmines-in-us-china-relations-for-the-biden-administration-says-e-australian.html

Excerpt:
The move could mark the end of the “one China policy,” said Rudd, who’s now president of Asia Society Policy Institute.
The one China policy is the principle in which the U.S. and the international community recognize that there’s only one Chinese government — under the Communist Party of China in Beijing.

“That has been the mainstay of strategic stability for the last 40 years or so,” said the former Australian leader.

Swala

12-01-2021, 12:44 PM

with armed protest in all 52 states possible some cash on hand for a dip might be an idea.
I think this is very prudent. I have been selling steadily over the past two weeks. I think there is great potential for things to turn very ugly in the US over the next couple of weeks at least and markets could well take a hit.

greater fool

12-01-2021, 01:30 PM

I think this is very prudent. I have been selling steadily over the past two weeks. I think there is great potential for things to turn very ugly in the US over the next couple of weeks at least and markets could well take a hit.

The risks are very real.............

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/10/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

"Eurasia Group, the political risk consultancy, called out a divided United States as the top risk for 2021. Domestic political dynamics, along with the country's
mismanagement of the pandemic, will make it difficult for President-elect Joe Biden to reassert America's global leadership role despite his best efforts, according
to Ian Bremmer, the group's president.
"The US is by far the most politically dysfunctional and divided of all the world's advanced industrial democracies," Bremmer tweeted last Thursday.
The big question, though, is whether political chaos will feed a longer-term erosion of faith in the US dollar, the world's preeminent reserve currency. For now,
the risk seems limited, in part because of the sheer volume of trades in dollar-denominated assets.
But as Eurasia Group points out, America's global dominance faces real headwinds. One piece of evidence: Europe has just finalized an investment agreement with China,
designed to rebalance its trading relationship with the world's second largest economy, despite US concerns.
"Biden's term opens the era of the asterisk presidency, a time when the occupant of the Oval Office is seen as illegitimate by roughly half the country,"
the group said in its 2021 outlook. "Such a political reality has never occurred in another G7 country, but it's the reality of the world's most powerful democracy today.""

Kashmir96

12-01-2021, 02:19 PM

"Biden's term opens the era of the asterisk presidency, a time when the occupant of the Oval Office is seen as illegitimate by roughly half the country,"

Just because nearly half the country voted for trump doesn’t mean they are all falling for his propaganda about the election being stolen.

IMO media is focusing heavily on a loud minority and making things seem worse than they actually are.. in a few weeks it’ll just be a blip on the radar

Marilyn Munroe

12-01-2021, 02:22 PM

Pompeo is laying ‘landmines’ in U.S.-China relations before Biden takes office, ex-Australian leader says

it's not all bad for President Xi, he can rely on craven silence from the Chardonnay sippers and canapé nibblers at New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Waltzing

12-01-2021, 03:04 PM

Its more a case that NZ govt departments are aligned to cater for the south pacific protectorate. Tiny country that really is no longer involved in fighting anything other than the virus. 4.5 million tax payers limits the discourse in a world now back at a cold war stage 2.

With the kinds of tinder boxes out in the big world and influences wielding real power to organise protests the government is probably well aware there are internal threats just as anywhere else.

It just kiwi's are really beak down hoeing into the garden and painting that new deck. A lot of new drive ways being concreted seen from daily bike rides.

Houses and gardens are big on the minds of kiwi's, not hanging the local council or local MP .

Davexl

12-01-2021, 03:53 PM

Where is NZ?

Hong Kong security law being used to 'eliminate dissent' say US, UK, Australia and Canada

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/10/hong-kong-security-law-being-used-to-eliminate-dissent-say-us-uk-australia-and-canada

NZ is silent. Clearly China has silenced NZ's Freedom of Speech!

it's not all bad for President Xi, he can rely on craven silence from the Chardonnay sippers and canapé nibblers at New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

After also writing to the Herald & Stuff about the above article, finally Richard Prebble has come to the rescue...

Richard Prebble: Increasingly authoritarian China has silenced New Zealand - (paywalled)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/richard-prebble-increasingly-authoritarian-china-has-silenced-new-zealand/VZD6JQZMJ45GGU7S6LC557JRTA/

Excerpt:
"Last week, using the new national security law that China forced on Hong Kong, there were mass arrests of pro-democracy activists.
The USA, Canada, UK and Australia put out a joint statement condemning the arrests.

New Zealand was conspicuous by our absence. Mahuta's response was 43 words on Twitter expressing regret. There is no official response on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website.

For the first time in our history, our government has decided the cost of standing up for democracy is too high. Appeasement does not work. China now knows we buckle to pressure."

and from Stuff:

NZ stakes out independent position in criticism of Hong Kong arrests

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123914668/nz-stakes-out-independent-position-in-criticism-of-hong-kong-arrests

Excerpt:
"But New Zealand concern did not sign up to the joint statement, continuing a pattern of sometimes joining forces but other times not. Instead, Mahuta issued her own statement on Twitter (https://twitter.com/NanaiaMahuta/status/1346988687205093383?s=20) last week.

“Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply concerned by the recent arrest of a number of pro-democracy advocates in #HongKong,” she wrote. “This represents another effort to erode the rights and freedoms of the people of Hong Kong and further undermine the one country two systems framework.”

Jason Young, a Victoria University expert on Chinese politico-economic and institutional reform, said New Zealand’s decision to go solo with its criticism could be seen as more “forceful”, as it could not be perceived as bowing to the pressure of larger Five Eyes partners."

Personally i think the statement is weaker because it's not even from the MoFA&T - but what would I know...

Waltzing

12-01-2021, 04:02 PM

There is no one interested in NZ. sunny day. Most waiting the start of the sailing, foiling what ever it is... No one news at Kiwi day break... it a country at sleep and really does anyone care anymore. The local iwi arnt interested in Hong Kong. First language book for the native language was not published until 1962. Now that was 60 years ago and you probably should see a fan fare about that. Sending a note to the PM this week.

With the risk of L4 and the virus spreading fast cash is a good idea.

Mass vac sites are opening in countries to get the waves down.

Waltzing

12-01-2021, 07:33 PM

world about to enter a deadly new phase of the virus war. US deaths a day could hit 5000.

Time to get some cash from portfolios.

US capital police and National Guard preparing to defend the capital if necessary. Have some cash ready for a big sharp dip in the dow and world markets.

Rules of engagement are being drawn up.

Davexl

13-01-2021, 11:10 AM

This is serious folks...not just political posturing...

The joint chiefs of staff is preparing a statement to service members reminding them of their duty to support the constitution and reject extremism,according to CNN.
Barbara Starr (@barbarastarrcnn) Just in: Joint Chiefs of Staff preparing rare message to entire force of reassurance: reminding them the job is to support & defend Constitution and reject extremism. Its a significant step. JCS have sought to stay out of politics. Statement due to gravity of events.
January 12, 2021
(https://twitter.com/barbarastarrcnn/status/1349081016347013121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
The statement, which comes in response to the violent riot at the Capitol, is significant given that the joint chiefs usually try to stay out of politics.

The events of the past week have apparently made it clear that such a statement is necessary.

Waltzing

13-01-2021, 12:20 PM

Boris piles into the china virus. Now the china dragon policy that breathed fire on to the Kanga's has been put out by st george and his mighty pen.

DISC: not sure if Boris is ever going to be as great as WC.

Davexl

13-01-2021, 04:40 PM

Leaves Aussi in a pickle, for now anyway...

China acts fast to stymie Biden trade alliance with Europe

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-acts-fast-to-stymie-biden-trade-alliance-with-europe-20210113-p56tr5.html

Excerpt:
"The unwillingness of the Europeans to wait a few weeks to talk to the Biden administration sees the prospect of that coalition receding - even though the actions China has taken towards Australia, with which it has (along with other nations in the region) a trade deal, ought to have provided the Europeans with an illustration of the complexities and risks of expecting Xi Jinping’s China to behave in accordance with Western norms."

greater fool

14-01-2021, 10:29 PM

Good to see. Europe, now without the UK, is growing a backbone.

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/germany-draws-another-line-in-the-sand-for-biden/

"Le Drian said: “We will not return to the status quo ante, to the good old days of the trans-Atlantic relationship. The world has moved on after these four years. Europe has emerged from its naïveté. It is beginning to assert itself as a power.”

To be sure, the Biden presidency will be a drastic relief for European officials who have struggled to maintain good relations with Washington over the past four years, which sent ties to an unprecedented low level.

........ a substantive global “to-do” list that awaits the EU leaders and Biden to work fruitfully – elevation of diplomacy as the United States’ principal tool of foreign policy, renewed commitment to multilateralism and specific assurances on NATO and the UN, re-entry to the Paris Climate Agreement and Iran nuclear accord, re-engaging with the World Trade Organization and World Health Organization, a global democracy summit, pushback against authoritarianism and corruption, advancing human rights and much more.

These are all matters of great importance to Europe. "

GTM 3442

15-01-2021, 09:36 AM

President Pompeo sprays to mark his territory

https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/us-declassifies-strategy-revealing-yawning-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/

Davexl

15-01-2021, 01:07 PM

Can't stand the man (Pompeo), acts without evidence...

Trump and Pompeo's campaign of 'diplomatic vandalism'

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/donald-trumps-america/300205036/trump-and-pompeos-campaign-of-diplomatic-vandalism

Davexl

15-01-2021, 04:06 PM

Campbell poised to ‘pivot’ US policy in Asia

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/campbell-poised-to-pivot-us-policy-in-asia/

Excerpt:
"Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, widely viewed as the region’s spokesman on this issue, said in late 2019: “If you ask them to choose and say, ‘I therefore must cut off my links with my biggest trading partner,’ I think you will put them in a very difficult position.”

Campbell noted in this month’s Foreign Affairs article that “although Indo-Pacific states seek US help to preserve their autonomy in the face of China’s rise, they realize it is neither practical nor profitable to exclude Beijing from Asia’s vibrant future. Nor do the region’s states want to be forced to ‘choose’ between the two superpowers.”

Marilyn Munroe

15-01-2021, 09:25 PM

President Pompeo sprays to mark his territory

I almost feel sorry for Chairman Xi. A ruthless dictator who uses belligerence over Taiwan to cement his position and politicians in the world greatest democracy have an uncivil conversation about it ignoring him completely. Even worse his Manchurian Candidate is mocked as President Xiden.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

GTM 3442

16-01-2021, 10:11 AM

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/china-indonesia-on-a-collision-course-at-sea/

Davexl

16-01-2021, 12:57 PM

The truth we mostly knew comes out...2 highly intelligent men, but only Tillerson makes sense...

Tillerson slams Trump as Pompeo sings his praises

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/15/politics/tillerson-foreign-policy-interview/index.html

Excerpt:
"Tillerson said he believes China will be the biggest problem for the incoming Biden administration.

At the 11th hour, Trump hands Biden a whole new set of foreign policy headaches
(https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/13/world/trump-biden-taiwan-cuba-yemen-intl/index.html)
"I have a fear that we will come to military conflict with China within the decade and it will be when they make their move on Taiwan.
They've been putting all of their pieces in place for a long time now to do that, and that is [Chinese President Xi Jinping's] legacy, to reunite China," he said."

Davexl

16-01-2021, 03:22 PM

Essay.

Is a US-China war a real possibility? by Francesco Sisci (https://asiatimes.com/author/francesco-sisci/)

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/is-a-us-china-war-a-real-possibility/
(https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/is-a-us-china-war-a-real-possibility/)
Excerpt:
"This success comes after 40 years of constant results. In four decades, China went from being one of the poorest countries in the world to one of the richest; from one of the most backwards technologically, to one of the most advanced.

This certainly didn’t happen just because Beijing did it all on its own. This was also largely due to massive help of the US, which 40 years ago granted China an unprecedented privilege: to export to the US with very low tariffs and the possibility of Western technological transfer to China.

Furthermore, until recently, the US gave China a free pass on media scrutiny, basically expecting China to evolve in the “right direction.”

"In fact, some in China and the US may think that a military clash between the two is better now than later.

From the Chinese side, people may think that clashing with the US now, before it has effectively built a military alliance, could be better because it would scare some neighbors into turning toward China in an alliance or at least into neutrality. In America, some people may think a clash is better now before China grows too big and too technologically advanced."

In both countries, people may also think differently and favor the postponement of a military clash. In China, some may want to grow even stronger economically. In the US, some may want time to build a global alliance."

GTM 3442

16-01-2021, 03:35 PM

Davexl

16-01-2021, 03:36 PM

Davexl

16-01-2021, 05:56 PM

Just out of idle curiosity, just on the off chance, what would a Chinese military victory over the USA look like? What actual, practical, constraints and limits could China place on the USA?

And vice versa. . . .

A brief stab - but for starters...

If China were to successfully invade Taiwan , the US would suddenly lose the bulk of its China manufacturing production, especially its chip manufacturing in Taiwan. It would lose 90% of rare earths (necessary for defence), as Australia's Rare Earth production methods are not operating in the US yet and in a wider war Australia's ore production together with Malaysia's manufacturing would be lost. The US would end up completely de-fanged and would survive as a low tech, subsistence economy and China would switch its previously exported products to domestic demand uses, as they are planning to do via their "re-circulation" economics strategy being implemented right now.

If the US (& Japan) retained Taiwan and controlled all sea-lanes, China which is not self-sufficient in food could be starved into submission as the US is one of China's 'bread-baskets' for the moment. Further resources strangulation would be used of oil, via the Indian ocean and raw ores from Australia unless Australia was taken out in a wider conflagration.

For now China isn't strong enough to take out Australia, but it could take out Taiwan, whose military and backup-forces are supposedly not well trained or resourced right now as has been discussed elsewhere. The calculus might be that China can do the job swiftly before the US could either find the will, (or possibly not) or ramp up logistics to take them on more fully. It's conceivable that Taiwan might not be defended successfully because of its proximity to China or failure of US logistics response in a timely manner. It might all be over quite quickly if the war is swift enough to remain as a regional war where the US decides that Taiwan could go the way of Hong Kong to save US and Japanese lives.

The calculus in the US could be that there is little to lose by more aggressively taking on China in the South China Sea as if a war were triggered, it would be better while China is less technologically advanced or developed logistically to fight a war against a major adversary. That's why right-wing ideologues like Pompeo were so dangerous as they might decide that such a strategy is "winnable" at this point in time vs later.

As we all hopefully know by now we all would hope to avoid war and peacefully co-exist somehow, but there is loss of trust on both sides and stress-points have never been higher than they are right now and with the US is complete disarray, now could be a good time for China's CCP to strike.

Both sides are 'prudently' preparing for war to defend the peace - China biding its time for now, except possibly for Taiwan, and the US getting more aggressive in the South China Sea and getting allies and friends on-board. At least Pompeo is gone (almost) but President Xi isn't and matters are worsening for now on both sides.

Davexl

16-01-2021, 07:24 PM

North Korea unveils new submarine-launched missile at paradehttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/15/asia-pacific/north-korea-missiles-japan-kim/

Excerpt:
"But military experts say North Korea’s decrepit submarine force would easily be detected and destroyed, while sanctions make developing any survivable sub a virtually unattainable goal. One possible objective behind the rush to build the new missiles, however, could be to lay the groundwork for another escalation: the revelation of a solid-fueled ICBM.

“I’m struggling to understand the logic of this rapid SLBM development and evolution with no real survivable submarine and the only thing that makes sense to me is that these developments are setting the stage for a solid fuel ICBM,” Vipin Narang, a North Korea expert and professor of international relations at MIT, wrote on Twitter. “To me that has to be the end game here.”

Davexl

17-01-2021, 10:06 AM

Next move up to Biden...

China delivers threat over Five Eyes Hong Kong joint statement (except for NZ)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/china-delivers-threat-over-five-eyes-hong-kong-joint-statement/2Z7AIOPSC652EJEIPNYU6VN22U/

Excerpt:
"The visit (to Taiwan) is part of outgoing Secretary of State Pompeo's declaration that "all contact guidelines regarding relations with Taiwan ... to be null and void".

Taiwan has welcomed this final act of the troubled Trump presidency, but the Global Times has declared: "The dire consequences will be beyond anyone's predictions."
"If Washington arbitrarily removes these restrictions it had previously complied with, China-US relations will be totally redefined, and the two countries will move into hostility.

The international basis and foundation for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan question will collapse."

GTM 3442

17-01-2021, 11:45 AM

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2473347/russian-influence-on-indias-military-doctrines/

Davexl

17-01-2021, 02:09 PM

First Turkey and now India?

Exclusive: India's friction with U.S. rises over planned purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-usa-missiles-exclusive/exclusive-indias-friction-with-u-s-rises-over-planned-purchase-of-russian-s-400-defence-systems-idUSKBN29K2DO

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2473347/russian-influence-on-indias-military-doctrines/

Found this bit particularly interesting re the S400...excellent paper by the way, fills in the strategic background nicely...

"Related to counterforce is the missile defense piece of damage limitation strategies: the ability to intercept residuals that a counterforce strike misses. Here, India has tried to develop native layered missile defenses, including the Prithvi Air Defense system and Advanced Air Defense system. However, Pakistan’s emphasis on cruise missiles and India’s recognition of the limitations of its native defenses led New Delhi to pursue terminal and area defense systems from abroad. Thwarted by technology transfer issues with the Israeli Arrow system (based on the US Patriot system) and with no alternatives, India sought Russia’s capable S-400 system, which possesses a performance envelope that is quite good for India. It is capable of intercepting short- and medium-range ballistic missile targets—exactly the ranges of Pakistani strategic nuclear weapons—and has a limited capability to intercept cruise missiles, in addition to its air defense capabilities. The S-400 was such a high priority for India that it was willing to risk US-levied CAATSA sanctions to continue with the purchase of four batteries from Russia. The S-400 adds a critical missile defense capability that makes a preemptive counterforce option more credible, since it provides a limited ability to intercept residuals, reducing the pressure on intelligence to find and destroy all of Pakistan’s strategic nuclear forces. This is a case where Russia may directly influence Indian thinking."

Davexl

17-01-2021, 02:24 PM

What we've all been thinking these last 4 long years...(Not just the Europeans)

Trump has trashed America's most important alliance. The rift with Europe could take decades to repair

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/16/europe/trump-has-trashed-the-transatlantic-alliance-intl/index.html

(https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/16/europe/trump-has-trashed-the-transatlantic-alliance-intl/index.html)Excerpt:
"A view many European officials share is that no matter how friendly Biden is, Trump happened once -- and could happen again. The President lost the election, but clearly there is still a lot of support for his politics. In 2024, Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Mike Pompeo, or any other of his allies could conceivably pick up the torch and win an election."

and

"The repudiation of shared ideas and cultural ties Cluver describes are one prong of the fork that has punctured the alliance. According to Barker, officials in European capitals were agog at the types of people Trump employed to work as envoys overseas.

"This idea, that Europe has lost its trust in America, comes up time and again when speaking to European diplomats and EU officials. Cluver believes the combination of unpredictability from the White House and "US bureaucracy being dismantled from the inside to make it less effective worldwide" under Trump means we have crossed the Rubicon."

"American influence in European defense, security, and other global priorities has diminished. This has led to lots of countries having to think more seriously about their future with a less assertive US," she added."

GTM 3442

18-01-2021, 09:52 AM

Nice China/US/China scenario.

"The Diplomat" ran a series on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, this is the first part.

https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/anatomy-of-a-taiwan-invasion-the-air-domain/

Marilyn Munroe

18-01-2021, 10:33 AM

Davexl

18-01-2021, 12:50 PM

Nice China/US/China scenario.

"The Diplomat" ran a series on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, this is the first part.

https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/anatomy-of-a-taiwan-invasion-the-air-domain/

Very much looking foward to the following installments!

Davexl

18-01-2021, 04:02 PM

The geo-strategic importance of TSMC and Taiwan more generally to our standard of living...

A brewing U.S.-China tech cold war rattles the semiconductor industry

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/a-brewing-us-china-tech-cold-war-rattles-the-semiconductor-industry.html

Davexl

18-01-2021, 04:11 PM

Comyn

18-01-2021, 04:35 PM

I believe Nuclear weapons will stop any thoughts of war between the nations. Their would be no winners if such a horrific thing happened.

GTM 3442

18-01-2021, 04:58 PM

Very much looking foward to the following installments!

P2

https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/anatomy-of-a-taiwan-invasion-part-2-missile-and-naval-domains/

P3

https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/anatomy-of-a-taiwan-invasion-part-3-taiwans-countermeasures/

There is no P4

GTM 3442

18-01-2021, 05:00 PM

I'm a ambitious ruthless dictator with power of life and death over people. I'm going to invade Taiwan(Poland). I have the mighty Peoples Liberation Army(Wehrmacht) at my command and the democracies are an appeasing disunited mess. What could possibly go wrong?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

What could go wrong?

Well, your examples show that a war on two fronts would be a classic example of "wrongness".

But who would be the second front?

Davexl

18-01-2021, 05:53 PM

The final throws of Trump's attempt at Huawei's weakening...equivalent to a partial blockade of Chinese chipset manufacturing
And we know what typically happens with a blockade of any critical commodity - getting serious...

Trump administration slams China's Huawei, halts shipments from Intel and others, sources say

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/18/trump-administration-slams-chinas-huawei-halts-shipments-from-intel-and-others-sources-say.html

Speaking again of potential blockades of critical materials, China's immediate response to the above...

China eyes bolstering control of rare earths as national strategy

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/17/business/china-rare-earths/
Excerpt:
"The United States and other major economies, including European countries and Japan, depend on rare earth imports from China, the world’s dominant supplier of the materials.In 2010, China restricted exports of rare earths to Japan, when the two nations were at odds over a territorial dispute in the East China Sea."

"In December 2020, meanwhile, China enforced a new law aimed at prohibiting exports of the nation’s cutting-edge technologies and products that could be diverted to military use."

GTM 3442

19-01-2021, 08:36 AM

Speaking again of potential blockades of critical materials, China's immediate response to the above...

China eyes bolstering control of rare earths as national strategy

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/17/business/china-rare-earths/
Excerpt:
"The United States and other major economies, including European countries and Japan, depend on rare earth imports from China, the world’s dominant supplier of the materials.In 2010, China restricted exports of rare earths to Japan, when the two nations were at odds over a territorial dispute in the East China Sea."

"In December 2020, meanwhile, China enforced a new law aimed at prohibiting exports of the nation’s cutting-edge technologies and products that could be diverted to military use."

Yes, it's been interesting watching the world focus on President Trump's import controls and measures, with almost no conception of the role which export controls might play.

In a REAL trade war, not the empty rhetoric that the world has seen in the recent past.

Marilyn Munroe

19-01-2021, 11:06 AM

But who would be the second front?

If it came to shooting war over Taiwan the Americans would not want their flank on the Korean Peninsula exposed to hostile forces.

They would be forced to crush the puff ball ruthless dictator to neutralise this threat. The other ruthless dictator would have to reinforce the puff ball version of himself over concerns American tank divisions would cross the Yallu river.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Haven't the Indians some issues with China which could be resolved in their favour if China was distracted by a shooting war on the other side of the country.

GTM 3442

19-01-2021, 03:25 PM

I'm not sure that the Himalayas would constitute a viable "second front". Might India's reliance on Russian equipment be an important factor?

And given the effect of the amount of ordnance that North Korea absorbed in the 1950s, I'm not sure that any US armored divisions would be capable of crossing the Yalu.

dreamcatcher

19-01-2021, 10:54 PM

Covid-19 coronavirus: Wuhan virus lab scientist thought to be 'patient zero' still missing

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-wuhan-virus-lab-scientist-thought-to-be-patient-zero-still-missing/VA4TIO726U7P36ZQG2WLHDDTNA/

Davexl

21-01-2021, 05:12 PM

Phew! Kurt Campbell has a big job ahead...

Biden’s team heralds new American era in Asia

Seasoned envoys and policymakers set to steer nuanced new course of Asian alliance-building
treating China as strategic competitor rather than foe

by Richard Javad Heydarian

(https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/bidens-team-heralds-new-american-era-in-asia/)https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/bidens-team-heralds-new-american-era-in-asia/

Excerpt:
"He (Kurt Campbell) has also criticized the outgoing Trump for “strain[ing] virtually every element of the region’s operating system” and ceding ground “for China to rewrite rules central to the order’s content and legitimacy” due to his unilateralist policies, from trade wars to aggressive “New Cold War” rhetoric.

Instead, Campbell has emphasized the need for “serious US re-engagement” with the region, which includes multilateralist diplomacy and trade initiatives as well as an element of calibrated cooperation with China to avoid unnecessary conflict."

Davexl

23-01-2021, 02:48 PM

Will NZ take a similar attitude to Europe (vs Australia) during China / US conflict?

Blinken’s diplomatic cart will have a bumpy ride

America's relations with the rest of the world, and especially Europe, will take a lot of work to fix

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/blinkens-diplomatic-cart-will-have-a-bumpy-ride/

Excerpt:

Europeans rejoice at Biden’s victory in the presidential election, but do not think he can help America “make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader”;
A “massive change” has come over European attitudes toward the US: “Majorities in key [EU] member states now think the US political system is broken, and that Europe cannot just rely on the US to defend it”;
European countries “look to Berlin rather than Washington as the most important partner”;
Europeans believe that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade “and would want their country to stay neutral” in a conflict between the US and China;
The European Union should develop its own defense capacities; and,
While there is “a great chance for a revival of Atlanticism,” the Biden administration “cannot take European alignment against China for granted.”

Panda-NZ-

23-01-2021, 03:01 PM

If Biden more firmly takes on Russia that could have long term benefits.

If Putin and his cronies are excised from the land and the country moves closer to the EU it would change the whole game internationally.

Davexl

23-01-2021, 03:32 PM

Very interesting possibility Panda-NZ. I'm sure the CIA is working on it...now anyway...

Now all we need is for someone to fire back...

China authorises coast guard to fire on foreign vessels if needed

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-authorises-coast-guard-to-fire-on-foreign-vessels-if-needed-20210122-p56was.html

Davexl

23-01-2021, 03:52 PM

Australia & China. New boys on the block. If at first you don't succeed...

Press reset: can the Morrison government rebuild bridges with China – or is it too late?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jan/23/press-reset-can-the-morrison-government-rebuild-bridges-with-china-or-is-it-too-late

Excerpt:
Prof Jane Golley, an economist from the Australian National University and director of its Australian Centre on China in the World, says she can’t see any significant change looming for the state of the relationship.

“There’s been a lot of discussion about how we might reset the relationship in the last few years, but it’s gone beyond that. The question now is how much further things could deteriorate, or whether there is scope around the edges to improve the relationship somewhat.”

Golley says China’s dependence iron ore imports provides some constraint to its trade actions, “but in aggregate terms and for virtually all sectors, the simple fact is they matter far more to us in economic terms than we matter to them”.

Davexl

23-01-2021, 09:31 PM

This could be very big for Russia (Sunday NZ Time)

Alexei Navalny: Russian authorities brace for Saturday protests

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/russia-detains-navalny-aides-and-warns-against-saturday-protests

Excerpt:
Kira Yarmysh, Navalny’s press secretary, said police threatened to break down her door while detaining her before the protests.
She continued to tweet from custody, saying that attending the protests was “everyone’s duty, if we want prosperity, freedom and the well-being of our country.
And so that Alexei and all those illegally behind bars are set free.”

“January 23rd should become legendary,” she wrote from a jail cell before signing off for the night.

Davexl

24-01-2021, 11:29 AM

Change in tactics by China...

Taiwan reports large incursion by Chinese air force

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-china-security/taiwan-reports-large-incursion-by-chinese-air-force-idUSKBN29S0BK

Davexl

24-01-2021, 11:40 AM

Biden’s ‘Big Four’ to refine Trump’s China policy by Richard Javad Heydarian (https://asiatimes.com/author/richard-javad-heydarian/)

https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/bidens-big-four-to-refine-trumps-china-policy/

Excerpt:
“I disagree very much with the way that he [Trump] went about it in a number of areas, but the basic principle was the right one, and I think that’s actually helpful to our foreign policy,” he added, emphasizing that the previous administration rightly broke with self-defeating strategic taboos following decades of failed engagement policy towards Beijing.

Davexl

25-01-2021, 03:03 PM

Western Values vs Chinese CCP demands - HSBC, where the rubber hits the road...

HSBC chief can’t stay silent as China’s crimes are exposed

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/hsbc-chief-can-t-stay-silent-as-china-s-crimes-are-exposed-20210125-p56wll.html

Excerpt:
"Perhaps Quinn will offer MPs a different and more convincing characterisation this week. He would do well to bear in mind these words from Tom Tugendhat, the Conservative committee chairman: “Companies listed in London should expect to be scrutinised according to the values we hold, not those of a foreign dictatorship.“

and

"Britain’s self-serving hopes that forging a partnership with Beijing would help freedom take root have evaporated. The CCP is instead building the world’s first hi-tech prison state. As geopolitics shift to account for this reality, the financial system must be reshaped. HSBC should admit it and get ready for a break-up."

Waltzing

25-01-2021, 03:12 PM

2 days of flight incursions by the china air force and US strike force entry 36 hours ago into the south china sea.

Davexl

25-01-2021, 03:13 PM

And on the same subject from Bloomberg - in case you missed it...

Savers Spooked (https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/22746605.97253/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FydGljbG VzLzIwMjEtMDEtMjQvY2hpbmEtcy1ncm93aW5nLXBvd2VyLWlz LXNjYXJpbmctb3JkaW5hcnktc2F2ZXJzLW91dC1vZi1ob25nLW tvbmc_Y21waWQ9QkJEMDEyNDIxX01LVCZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVt YWlsJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fdGVybT0yMT AxMjQmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW1hcmtldHNhc2lh/5f07b4f93b6ff31b2742d39dBa358bfe1)

"China's growing power is scaring ordinary savers out of Hong Kong (https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/22746605.97253/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FydGljbG VzLzIwMjEtMDEtMjQvY2hpbmEtcy1ncm93aW5nLXBvd2VyLWlz LXNjYXJpbmctb3JkaW5hcnktc2F2ZXJzLW91dC1vZi1ob25nLW tvbmc_Y21waWQ9QkJEMDEyNDIxX01LVCZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVt YWlsJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fdGVybT0yMT AxMjQmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW1hcmtldHNhc2lh/5f07b4f93b6ff31b2742d39dCa358bfe1), with Bank of America estimating outflows could reach $36 billion this year as residents assess their options. A proliferation of discussions have sprung up on social networks offering advice on creating offshore accounts, moving money into other assets, or opening accounts at U.S. banks, which are perceived to be less pliable to the demands of Chinese authorities, following the introduction of the sweeping national security law imposed on the city last year. For some, the last straw came when banks including British lender HSBC froze the accounts of former lawmaker Ted Hui and family members after he went into exile in the U.K. with his family. Other signs that the pace of cash leaving the city is picking up include a rise in withdrawals from the city's pension fund and soaring interest in U.K. property by Hongkongers"

Davexl

25-01-2021, 03:26 PM

2 days of flight incursions by the china air force and US strike force entry 36 hours ago into the south china sea.

China-Taiwan tensions rise days into Biden presidency

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/china-taiwan-tensions-rise-days-into-biden-presidency.html

U.S. sends carrier into South China Sea as Chinese bombers fly near Taiwan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/24/asia-pacific/us-south-china-sea-taiwan/ (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/24/asia-pacific/us-south-china-sea-taiwan/)

Excerpt:
"Earlier, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said that eight Chinese H-6K bombers, four J-16 fighter jets and a Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft had entered the ADIZ. China, which claims Taiwan as an inherent part of its territory, has conducted almost daily flights near the island in recent months, usually involving surveillance aircraft. But the large size of Saturday’s contingent — and presence of the bombers — was unusual."

also, raising the stakes further...

New U.S. defense chief confirms Senkakus fall under security treaty

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/24/national/politics-diplomacy/us-japan-defense-senkakus/ (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/24/national/politics-diplomacy/us-japan-defense-senkakus/)

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