Geo Political Risk

[Bjauck]

I guess all countries have in the past things to be ashamed of as well as things to be proud of. And yes, we inherited from Britain as well the Magna Carta and a sort of funny justice system (but better than none), Plum Pudding, Shakespeare, the habit to cook vegetables until they are greyish and tasteless and a funny way to pronounce otherwise easy to spell words of Germanic and Latin origin.

You are right - all was not bad, and I never said that ... it was just another empire behaving like empires do.

My point (in my response to blackcap) was that it is not the fault of the US that the British empire went down the gurgler ... they did this all by themselves ... and now after BREXIT they are going to give themselves the rest! Good we are at least these days not anymore an appendix of the British empire, isn't it? Hey, this is really good :t_up:. English is like German corrected by a French governess? I think the Americans gladly hastened the process of the Decline of the British Empire. However with a burgeoning China and a stroppy Russia, they would probably wish the UK were not shooting itself in the foot all the time now.

I am glad we were part of the British Empire and not the French, Belgian or Spanish. However I am biassed because most of my ancestry is from Britain and Ireland and they would not have come to NZ if it had not been British ;) And I like Roast Beef and Yorkshire pudding….and a good walk spoilt (golf)….

I would prefer it if our largest trading partner were the UK rather than Communists. However the UK is going through a period of existential angst.

[Panda-NZ-]

Imagine if Britain won the revolutionary war..

Along with a glorious victory for his majesty, America might be a more functional/humane place.

[blackcap]

No point in pointing fingers or feeling sorry for the UK.

Britain used to be just another disgusting empire build on the blood and the bones of the people they robbed, enslaved and exploited. Not better or worse than any other empire before them.

The British empire in the early 20th century was already well past its "best before date" and just going downhill - same as the Roman empire went down the gurgler a couple of milenia before, same as the Durch empire went down some centuries before, same as the Russian empire is expiring right now ... and potentially same as the US will go down quite soon (we shall see, though the Chines admittedly behave quite idiotic if they want to take over.

Empires are born, grow, thrive and die - all caused by their own actions (and typically over some centuries), and sure - on the way down they harvest what they did sow.

Hi BP,

no need to respond. I was merely observing and going wow, never realised this. Fascinating. I was not feeling sorry for anyone or lamenting anything. Purely an observation about something I did not know much about but thought was urban myth but as it turns out was not.

[Bjauck]

Imagine if Britain won the revolutionary war..

Along with a glorious victory for his majesty, America might be a more functional/humane place. However the United British America would undoubtedly have been smaller, poorer with fewer people to counter the Soviet Union and the Third Reich of Western Europe.

[GTM 3442]

The Nine Dash Line moves inland

https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/how-china-reinvented-an-ancient-kingdom-to-advance-its-claims-in-the-himalayas/

[Davexl]

An excellent but rose-tinted look down memory lane about NZs relationship with China.
It would be nice to think that Chris Elder is right, that China might return to being more benign, like in the 90's era, but it seems to me that under President Xi, China is just starting to find its straps, militarily, and despite its domestic issues with normalising living with Covid, its slow motion property bust etc - it has fundamentally changed its objective of absorbing Taiwan on a faster timescale that originally thought.

We can only hope that with Aust Foreign Minister Penny Wong attempting to normalise relations "tactfully", with China under PM Albanese, that at least in our part of the world, trade with continue unabated, that NZ and Australia manage to diversify their exports steadily over time, and the necessary decoupling of the West from China quietly continues with India taking up the slack, (with the exception of Europe who hasn't learnt anything even after eschewing Russian oil and gas dependencies).

Roll on into 2023 - 2027 is on the horizon, our possible date with destiny ?

50 years of NZ-China relations: Consistency and courtesy have served us well, 'old China hand' says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/130808048/50-years-of-nzchina-relations-consistency-and-courtesy-have-served-us-well-old-china-hand-says

[GTM 3442]

I understand that Russia is considering issuing new construction standards for windows.


https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300774386/russian-magnate-who-criticised-ukraine-war-dies-after-window-fall


Mind you, "Russian Sausage Tycoon" seems to be a fairly hazardous occupation


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13089737/russia-sausage-king-crossbow/

[Davexl]

Lots of Food for Thought here - Geopolitics is no longer "Business as Usual"

Ten lessons from the return of history - Richard N. Haas

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ten-lessons-from-the-return-of-history/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_932b7189 97ec2b038a34c27411d6c39b&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Ten%20lessons%20from%20the%20return%20of% 20history

[Panda-NZ-]

A taiwan invasion would be good for Xi now - a change of topic from the incoming mass corona deaths (worked for Putin).

Maybe he'll settle for a tiny skirmish, that the chinese media will play up for the masses.

[nztx]

UK in Recession:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-30/the-uk-is-poorer-and-sinking-to-the-bottom-of-the-g7-forecasts/101728248

As the UK falls into a recession that could soon swallow Europe, this town offers clues on England's cost-of-living nightmare


While much of the world anxiously waits to see if their economies will tip into a recession next year, the United Kingdom may already be in the midst of one.

The economy shrank 0.3 per cent between July and September, in what Bank of England forecasts say is the start of a "prolonged period" of negative growth that will last throughout 2023.

Part of the problem is inflation — which is at 10.7 per cent — and proving persistent, feeding through into higher prices for food and housing and demands for higher wages.

The cost-of-living squeeze is being felt all over the world as central banks attempt to tackle spiralling prices with interest rate rises designed to make people spend less.


Brexit added 210 pounds to the average household's food bill in the two years to the end of 2021



Domestic gas prices are up by 129 per cent and domestic electricity prices rose 65 per cent in the 12 months to November 2022.

While prices dropped over autumn, they are set to increase as winter sets in, driving up heating bills and worsening inflation.

"The UK has actually been fairly well-placed, in the sense that it has more liquid natural gas terminals than other European countries do.


One of our trading Partners too - which our Govt have been courting post brick-out?

maybe not much now ?

may be even the most sterling of efforts won't entice many loose pounds out of those who have not now ;)

[Bjauck]

UK in Recession:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-30/the-uk-is-poorer-and-sinking-to-the-bottom-of-the-g7-forecasts/101728248

As the UK falls into a recession that could soon swallow Europe, this town offers clues on England's cost-of-living nightmare









One of our trading Partners too - which our Govt have been courting post brick-out?

maybe not much now ?

may be even the most sterling of efforts won't entice many loose pounds out of those who have not now ;) The UK inflation rate is also exacerbated by no longer having the previous access to EU labour freedom of movement, the extra expense and red tape involved in accessing the European single market - the largest market for both imports and exports, and a seriously bad former PM in Liz Truss who spooked financial markets by planning to borrow to finance tax cuts for the wealthy. There is a growing loss of confidence in the right wing ideologues of the Conservative Party.

[warthog]

A taiwan invasion would be good for Xi now - a change of topic from the incoming mass corona deaths (worked for Putin).

Maybe he'll settle for a tiny skirmish, that the chinese media will play up for the masses.

China won't be invading Taiwan anytime soon. You've been watching too much TV.

[nztx]

The UK inflation rate is also exacerbated by no longer having the previous access to EU labour freedom of movement, the extra expense and red tape involved in accessing the European single market - the largest market for both imports and exports, and a seriously bad former PM in Liz Truss who spooked financial markets by planning to borrow to finance tax cuts for the wealthy. There is a growing loss of confidence in the right wing ideologues of the Conservative Party.


The rest of Europe wont be much better

Fuel & Energy issues

Added cost with Ukraine issues & direct support for Nato iniatives

How are the previously shaky Italy's Portugal & Spain faring now in a new stormy conditions ? ;)

What is our trade with the Euro block looking like now ?

[BlackPeter]

The rest of Europe wont be much better

Fuel & Energy issues

Added cost with Ukraine issues & direct support for Nato iniatives

How are the previously shaky Italy's Portugal & Spain faring now in a new stormy conditions ? ;)

What is our trade with the Euro block looking like now ?

Sure - everybody has issues. Russia has issues. China has issues. Africa has issues. Europe has issues. However - UK featuring after BREXIT as one of the worst performers under the OECD countries; Second highest inflation after Italy & first into recession. That's what it means to get BREXIT done, isn't it?

But I am sure the Brits will keep working to overtake Italy as well ... inflation and recession first, and then - not sure - maybe corruption and constant political deadlock next - who knows?

Just important for them to be first.

Their problem was that they blindly trusted a bunch of absolutely meanspirited crooks who drove them into BREXIT despite knowing that this will be bad for the UK. Too many sheep in Britain?

Obviously - every country has its fair share of crooks and idiots. Little England is not alone. What I find however amazing is that there are still some people defending these crooks destroying what's left of Britain. But I guess so did some Germans defending the Nazis after the end of WW II ... and lets face it, plenty of Americans still howling after Trump and (nearly) every religion featuring people prepared to kill and die for something which does not make sense. So - why not keeping to defend Brexit, it nicely fits into the list of human follies.

Just keep your eyes closed and everything might be fluffy.

I guess Einstein was right when he talked about this particular human trait being infinit.

[Panda-NZ-]

Brexit definately did vlad's work for him.. no wonder he funds every eurosceptic party there is.

The EU simply dominates Russia in economic development, technology and most importantly, through ideas like democracy and human rights (which ukranians and russians were starting to want for themselves).

Without the EU.. even a backwards state like Russia can dominate the 30 or so remaining countries using the favourite soviet divide and rule tactics.

[warthog]

Sure - everybody has issues. Russia has issues. China has issues. Africa has issues. Europe has issues. However - UK featuring after BREXIT as one of the worst performers under the OECD countries; Second highest inflation after Italy & first into recession. That's what it means to get BREXIT done, isn't it?

But I am sure the Brits will keep working to overtake Italy as well ... inflation and recession first, and then - not sure - maybe corruption and constant political deadlock next - who knows?

Just important for them to be first.

Their problem was that they blindly trusted a bunch of absolutely meanspirited crooks who drove them into BREXIT despite knowing that this will be bad for the UK. Too many sheep in Britain?

Obviously - every country has its fair share of crooks and idiots. Little England is not alone. What I find however amazing is that there are still some people defending these crooks destroying what's left of Britain. But I guess so did some Germans defending the Nazis after the end of WW II ... and lets face it, plenty of Americans still howling after Trump and (nearly) every religion featuring people prepared to kill and die for something which does not make sense. So - why not keeping to defend Brexit, it nicely fits into the list of human follies.

Just keep your eyes closed and everything might be fluffy.

I guess Einstein was right when he talked about this particular human trait being infinit.

The hog was once pro-EU and anti-Brexit, but now in reaction to new information, this position has completely reversed. The EU has an increasingly tyrannical, authoritarian dystopia ahead of it, whereas relatively unencumbered the UK can to some extent forge its own path ahead. Still, some Europeans have the bottle necessary to overthrow despots, but that is increasingly looking less likely.

[Panda-NZ-]

The hog was once pro-EU and anti-Brexit, but now in reaction to new information, this position has completely reversed. The EU has an increasingly tyrannical, authoritarian dystopia ahead of it, whereas relatively unencumbered the UK can to some extent forge its own path ahead. Still, some Europeans have the bottle necessary to overthrow despots, but that is increasingly looking less likely.

The UK has a house of lords, conservatives ruling them for 20 years and elections where 60% voted for someone else.

[BlackPeter]

The hog was once pro-EU and anti-Brexit, but now in reaction to new information, this position has completely reversed. The EU has an increasingly tyrannical, authoritarian dystopia ahead of it, whereas relatively unencumbered the UK can to some extent forge its own path ahead. Still, some Europeans have the bottle necessary to overthrow despots, but that is increasingly looking less likely.

Clearly - all based on secret information only available to you. Do you want to share your sources of wisdom - what herb are you smoking?

[Panda-NZ-]

They need a 100% consensus from member countries on some decisions.

Imagine the UK or NZ trying to get a 100% agreement on something basic like the time of day.

[BlackPeter]

They need a 100% consensus from member countries on some decisions.

Imagine the UK or NZ trying to get a 100% agreement on something basic like the time of day.

Clearly - the system is not perfect. No system / union / partnership is.

More relevant question is though - is this imperfect system better than the alternative?

Its a bit like the saying that democracy is the worst form of government - except all other systems (Winston Churchill).

[Bjauck]

The hog was once pro-EU and anti-Brexit, but now in reaction to new information, this position has completely reversed. The EU has an increasingly tyrannical, authoritarian dystopia ahead of it, whereas relatively unencumbered the UK can to some extent forge its own path ahead. Still, some Europeans have the bottle necessary to overthrow despots, but that is increasingly looking less likely.
First, congrats to The hog for surviving the festive season. My belly is full of smoked hog (ham!) and swine - sorry I mean wine!

It seem ironical that you think the EU is tyrannical and dystopian, given the dystopian succession of UK PMs since Brexit. Truss's calamitous visit to the revolving door of No. 10 Down-and-out Street single-handedly added quite a few points to British interest rates as the markets wonder what batsheet crazy policy the whacko Conservatives will come up with next....

It is also ironic, as the Conservative Brexit Government also grabbed for itself what have been called Henry VIII powers, because well they are frankly tyrannical. Namely: Since The Brexit Referendum result, the Brexit Cons had legislation passed allowing its Ministers to amend or repeal certain primary statutes and legislation without going through the parliamentary process.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-facts/what-are-the-henry-viii-powers/

So Brexit has dragged the UK five hundred years back to the England of 1523.

Individual members of the EU, as well as the UK, belong to NATO, which has demonstrated an effective response to Russia's increased belligerence. It has supported its member states in bolstering defence. Finland and Sweden have applied to join. Bear in mind, that Ukraine is not a member of NATO. The UK has co-operated with EU member states and it has not actively joined with Ukrainian forces in defending Ukraine against Putin. I am not sure how its response would have differed even if it were still a member of the EU. Perhaps the UK was able to act more quickly on trade barriers. However The Ukraine War is another example where the UK and EU nations have aligned interests.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-help-ukraine/

[warthog]

First, congrats to The hog for surviving the festive season. My belly is full of smoked hog (ham!) and swine - sorry I mean wine!

It seem ironical that you think the EU is tyrannical and dystopian, given the dystopian succession of UK PMs since Brexit. Truss's calamitous visit to the revolving door of No. 10 Down-and-out Street single-handedly added quite a few points to British interest rates as the markets wonder what batsheet crazy policy the whacko Conservatives will come up with next....

It is also ironic, as the Conservative Brexit Government also grabbed for itself what have been called Henry VIII powers, because well they are frankly tyrannical. Namely: Since The Brexit Referendum result, the Brexit Cons had legislation passed allowing its Ministers to amend or repeal certain primary statutes and legislation without going through the parliamentary process.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-facts/what-are-the-henry-viii-powers/

So Brexit has dragged the UK five hundred years back to the England of 1523.

Individual members of the EU, as well as the UK, belong to NATO, which has demonstrated an effective response to Russia's increased belligerence. It has supported its member states in bolstering defence. Finland and Sweden have applied to join. Bear in mind, that Ukraine is not a member of NATO. The UK has co-operated with EU member states and it has not actively joined with Ukrainian forces in defending Ukraine against Putin. I am not sure how its response would have differed even if it were still a member of the EU. Perhaps the UK was able to act more quickly on trade barriers. However The Ukraine War is another example where the UK and EU nations have aligned interests.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-britain-help-ukraine/

The hog has survived many festive seasons and will continue to do so but thank you for the well-wishing.

You are quite correct to point to the general dysfunction and malfeasance of the UK's politicians. The hog has no defence of such people to offer.

If you believe, as most of the world who listen to Western media and mainstream "discourse" do, in the Putin/Russia bad interpretation of the Ukraine situation, the hog can only offer condolences. There is, however, a certain degree of bliss that is said to result from broad ignorance.

[warthog]

The UK has a house of lords, conservatives ruling them for 20 years and elections where 60% voted for someone else.

You are of course absolutely correct, but even in countries that could reasonably be argued as having more "democracy", the last couple of years have shown us how incredibly high levels of general ignorance, lack of independent thinking or critical thought have become, so in the long run, it probably doesn't matter a jot. Further, the UK House of Lords, despite being somewhat of an anachronism, at least comprise a body of people who have time to consider issues in depth. Compare this with the profound and deep ignorance of regular politicians who really have no clue about anything except getting elected.

[warthog]

Clearly - all based on secret information only available to you. Do you want to share your sources of wisdom - what herb are you smoking?

If the hog has secret information, the relevant sources would remain unknown. It is somewhat surprising that you wouldn't infer this. Generally, the hog listens carefully to different perspectives from people of diverse backgrounds, ponders data, and examines what people do as opposed to what they say, and forms hypotheses about what happens in the world. These are, of course, subject to new data, contrary evidence, etc.

Although the hog has tried smoking blunts of diverse origins, it would be accurate to say none of them provide any benefit other than the experience as such so it won't surprise you when the hog says it's not even an occasional vice.

[Bjauck]

...
If you believe, as most of the world who listen to Western media and mainstream "discourse" do, in the Putin/Russia bad interpretation of the Ukraine situation, the hog can only offer condolences. There is, however, a certain degree of bliss that is said to result from broad ignorance. So which media do you read?

[warthog]

So which media do you read?

• Independent media unbeholden to states or other interests
• Independent letters or writing, etc. much of which subscription based
• Data, stats and research
• Self-critical people in various places around the world
• No television, no media websites, no physical media

[Bjauck]

• Independent media unbeholden to states or other interests
• Independent letters or writing, etc. much of which subscription based
• Data, stats and research
• Self-critical people in various places around the world
• No television, no media websites, no physical media
Do you conclude that Ukraine should be part of Greater Russia?

[warthog]

Do you conclude that Ukraine should be part of Greater Russia?

What is "Greater Russia"? Please define it, because this already sounds like it's already part of the "Russia is invading the world" lineage of narratives.

But to answer your question directly, in the hog's view Ukraine should be a buffer country between NATO and Russia, which pretty much mirrors what John Mearsheimer contends. You might consider reading or listening to what Mearsheimer has to say (you are recommended to find what he actually says, as opposed to what other people say or interpret him as saying).

To understand the Ukraine situation to any useful degree one needs to be familiar with the region's last couple of hundred years of history and in particular the last 30 or so years. The US at any given time is engaged in a number of proxy wars where the official narrative is "fighting evil" i.e. upholding ethical, moral and legal principles. However, if you look at the history of US meddling in the world you will not see a single example where this is true in and of itself.

[Panda-NZ-]

The Ukranian people themselves know what it's like to live under russian puppets.

Hence why a 3 day special operation turned into a 10 month war. It's not a sign of a country which wants to be part of the glorious motherland again.

[Bjauck]

What is "Greater Russia"? Please define it, because this already sounds like it's already part of the "Russia is invading the world" lineage of narratives.

But to answer your question directly, in the hog's view Ukraine should be a buffer country between NATO and Russia, which pretty much mirrors what John Mearsheimer contends. You might consider reading or listening to what Mearsheimer has to say (you are recommended to find what he actually says, as opposed to what other people say or interpret him as saying).

To understand the Ukraine situation to any useful degree one needs to be familiar with the region's last couple of hundred years of history and in particular the last 30 or so years. The US at any given time is engaged in a number of proxy wars where the official narrative is "fighting evil" i.e. upholding ethical, moral and legal principles. However, if you look at the history of US meddling in the world you will not see a single example where this is true in and of itself. On the contrary, although I think Putin includes Malorussia/Little Russia (Ukraine) as part of Russia, it is terminology used by Putin.

"There is objective evidence that the Russian Empire was witnessing an active process of development of the Malorussian cultural identity within the greater Russian nation, which united the Velikorussians, the Malorussians and the Belorussians"
https://www.prlib.ru/en/article-vladimir-putin-historical-unity-russians-and-ukrainians

Do Ukrainians want their land to be a buffer? Genuine question. I do not know if those in this "buffer" area have been asked or if under the United Nations or in international law their opinion is not relevant. Both Russia and Ukraine are members of the United Nations.

[warthog]

The Ukranian people themselves know what it's like to live under russian puppets.

Hence why a 3 day special operation turned into a 10 month war. It's not a sign of a country which wants to be part of the glorious motherland again.

When you think in predetermined concepts everything about the narratives you're being fed make perfect sense.

[warthog]

On the contrary. Although I think Putin includes Malorussia?/Little Russia (Ukraine) as part of Russia, it is terminology used by Putin.

"There is objective evidence that the Russian Empire was witnessing an active process of development of the Malorussian cultural identity within the greater Russian nation, which united the Velikorussians, the Malorussians and the Belorussians"
https://www.prlib.ru/en/article-vladimir-putin-historical-unity-russians-and-ukrainians

Do you know any Russians? How about ethnic Russians living in Donbas?


Do Ukrainians want their land to be a buffer? Genuine question.

Depends who you consider "Ukrainian", and what buffer means in the context of the possible alternatives.


I do not know if those in this "buffer" area have been asked or if under the United Nations or in international law their opinion is not relevant.

There was a referendum in September 2022 in Russia-occupied areas. If the result was contrary to the Russian annexation then the West would have be screaming that the people have spoken and Russia must abide by the result accordingly. As it was the result was contrary to Western Ukraine narratives so it was summarily dismissed as a sham. Where does that leave you?

Further, there is a huge difference between asking a question in principle and asking a question as one of a number of possible options.

[Panda-NZ-]

Any form of election held by Russia is a corrupt poorly managed sham.

Plus it should have included the whole of ukraine rather than only one town/city/street in ukraine.

[warthog]

Any form of election held by Russia is a corrupt poorly managed sham.

Plus it should have included the whole of ukraine rather than only one town/city/street in ukraine.

Opening up your mind to different possibilities is helpful if you really wish to try and understand something. The hog wishes you well.

[Bjauck]

Do you know any Russians? How about ethnic Russians living in Donbas?



Depends who you consider "Ukrainian", and what buffer means in the context of the possible alternatives.



There was a referendum in September 2022 in Russia-occupied areas. If the result was contrary to the Russian annexation then the West would have be screaming that the people have spoken and Russia must abide by the result accordingly. As it was the result was contrary to Western Ukraine narratives so it was summarily dismissed as a sham. Where does that leave you?

Further, there is a huge difference between asking a question in principle and asking a question as one of a number of possible options. I use to know a Russian, who lived in Auckland, some years ago. I am not sure of the relevance. Does it mean Auckland has to be a Buffer zone? Buffer as with whatever meaning you used when you said Ukraine should be a buffer between NATO and Russia.

Surely any poll on being a "buffer" should be conducted in the whole territory of the Ukraine member state of the UN?

I agree any discussion such as this one is limited in its scope.

[warthog]

I use to know a Russian, who lived in Auckland, some years ago. I am not sure of the relevance. Does it mean Auckland has to be a Buffer zone? Buffer as with whatever meaning you used when you said Ukraine should be a buffer between NATO and Russia.

The hog has found that a sample of views from critical people in context invariably has value.


Surely any poll on being a "buffer" should be conducted in the whole territory of the Ukraine member state of the UN?

"Ukraine" as an entity has been in constant flux for centuries. If you ask the buffer question of the entire area within pre-2022 borders you will likely receive an answer hostile to the Russian minority. If you ask the same question of the minority on the receiving end of such hostilities, you will almost certainly get the opposite answer. In both cases the poll could be run above-board and competently.

Should the EU have been able to force the UK to remain within the EU?

What if NZ wished to withdraw from CER with Australia. Could Australia force NZ to remain? ANZUS?

The hog hopes you will further agree that anyone who contends that the Ukraine situation is simple are either woefully misinformed or seeking to fool people.

[Bjauck]

The hog has found that a sample of views from critical people in context invariably has value.



"Ukraine" as an entity has been in constant flux for centuries. If you ask the buffer question of the entire area within pre-2022 borders you will likely receive an answer hostile to the Russian minority. If you ask the same question of the minority on the receiving end of such hostilities, you will almost certainly get the opposite answer. In both cases the poll could be run above-board and competently.

Should the EU have been able to force the UK to remain within the EU?

What if NZ wished to withdraw from CER with Australia. Could Australia force NZ to remain? ANZUS?

The hog hopes you will further agree that anyone who contends that the Ukraine situation is simple are either woefully misinformed or seeking to fool people.
False analogies. The EU comprises independent states with limited treaties with one another. Likewise CER and ANZUS Treaties, affecting different areas of co-operation. Ukraine is an independent nation too.

Just about all nations have had different boundaries in the past.

[warthog]

False analogies. The EU comprises independent states with limited treaties with one another.

You appear to be misinformed. Many EU members are very tightly bound by EU-level institutions which are far more fundamental than you seem to understand. The extent of centralisation is very deep and broad, with a huge amount of legislation originating at EU level. A massive, unaccountable EU bureaucracy presides over almost all issues with fewer and fewer exceptions.


Likewise CER and ANZUS Treaties, affecting different areas of co-operation.

The point is that what look like voluntary agreements rapidly become entrenched and become increasingly difficult to influence and reverse. Some of the provisions in the TPP represented substantive losses of national autonomy.


Ukraine is an independent nation too.

Have you heard of the Minsk agreements?


Just about all nations have had different boundaries in the past.

What makes more recent versions any more relevant than previous ones?

[Bjauck]

You appear to be misinformed. Many EU members are very tightly bound by EU-level institutions which are far more fundamental than you seem to understand. The extent of centralisation is very deep and broad, with a huge amount of legislation originating at EU level. A massive, unaccountable EU bureaucracy presides over almost all issues with fewer and fewer exceptions.



The point is that what look like voluntary agreements rapidly become entrenched and become increasingly difficult to influence and reverse. Some of the provisions in the TPP represented substantive losses of national autonomy.



Have you heard of the Minsk agreements?



What makes more recent versions any more relevant than previous ones?I am not sure how independent countries entering into negotiated Treaties with other countries became conflated with independent countries being subject to military operations by other countries to unilaterally usurp control or rewrite current borders.

[kiora]

"Russia-Ukraine war: Signs man ‘worse than Putin’ could take over as Russia’s next leader"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/turmoil-signs-man-worse-than-putin-could-take-over-as-russias-next-leader/2LMAXATJFBDJ5KOAV4PK4VYIZQ/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=Top_Stories_Newsletter&uuid=b0972ca1aefb43d8ac9bc509f4fd4ba9&utm_content=TS_Np

[warthog]

I am not sure how independent countries entering into negotiated Treaties with other countries became conflated with independent countries being subject to military operations by other countries to unilaterally usurp control or rewrite current borders.

Not conflated at all. Contextually relevant, as are the Minsk agreements, which the hog suggests you take a look at.

The world has a long history of military operations, almost all of which are immoral/unethical. If you want to be taken seriously in your condemnation of Russia's annexing of part of Ukraine, the hog recommends that you at the very minimum engage in the consistency of similar criticism/recognition of Western military meddling pretty much everywhere on the planet on the same or worse basis. You must know for example that the UK and US, directly or indirectly, have been murdering, bombing and assassinating their way around the globe for the last century in particular.

[Bjauck]

Not conflated at all. Contextually relevant, as are the Minsk agreements, which the hog suggests you take a look at.

The world has a long history of military operations, almost all of which are immoral/unethical. If you want to be taken seriously in your condemnation of Russia's annexing of part of Ukraine, the hog recommends that you at the very minimum engage in the consistency of similar criticism/recognition of Western military meddling pretty much everywhere on the planet on the same or worse basis. You must know for example that the UK and US, directly or indirectly, have been murdering, bombing and assassinating their way around the globe for the last century in particular. I did not think that Russia accepted it was bound by the Minsk agreement as it said it was never a party to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

As dreadful things were committed in the past, it gives licence for dreadful things to continue? The UK, US, China, USSR, Russia etc have committed horrors in the past so that means there is non compunction in committing horrific acts today?

[warthog]

I did not think that Russia accepted it was bound by the Minsk agreement as it said it was never a party to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

This sounds like somebody else's voice, not yours.

Russia signed these agreements. What is established fact as confirmed recently by Merkel is that the non-Russian commitments were duplicitous and intended only to buy time.


As dreadful things were committed in the past, it gives licence for dreadful things to continue? The UK, US, China, USSR, Russia etc have committed horrors in the past so that means there is non compunction in committing horrific acts today?

Straw Man. What the hog is saying is that it is morally and intellectually bankrupt to only focus selectively when condemning aggressions. The US has been fighting a proxy war with Russia via Ukraine for years: supplying weapons/intelligence, plundering resources, corrupting government, subverting democracy, contributing to atrocities and ethnic violence, etc. that over time amounts to a massive provocation of Russia. That is the real Western interest in Ukraine: to make money, attack Russia, expand NATO and drive a wedge between the EU-Russian economic activity to benefit the US in particular.

If you are going to condemn violence, murder, etc. in Ukraine, you need to go back at least to 2014.

But you don't. You just say, Putin Bad.

[BlackPeter]

"Ukraine" as an entity has been in constant flux for centuries. If you ask the buffer question of the entire area within pre-2022 borders you will likely receive an answer hostile to the Russian minority. If you ask the same question of the minority on the receiving end of such hostilities, you will almost certainly get the opposite answer. In both cases the poll could be run above-board and competently.


So - I guess you must think as well that Hitler acted well within his rights when he annexed Austria as well as the areas with some German speaking population in France (Lothringen) as well as in Poland and Czechia? He did exactly what Putin is doing now. So - I take it, you are not just a Putin but as well a Hitler fan, are you?

You realise (and I am sure you welcome) that your argument exposes as well NZ to a takeover from Xi. Some Chinese speaking population here who might need protection ... and NZ's roots are anyway in Taiwan (which according to Xi is an integral part of China). Some Chinese people here (clearly the guys paid by Beijing will welcome as well any takeover - and Putin did show in the Ukrainian occupied areas how easy it is to just get the desired people to vote. Enough heavily armed soldiers "independently" monitoring the voting process and forcing the people to put the tick in the right box always do.


You appear to be misinformed. Many EU members are very tightly bound by EU-level institutions which are far more fundamental than you seem to understand. The extent of centralisation is very deep and broad, with a huge amount of legislation originating at EU level. A massive, unaccountable EU bureaucracy presides over almost all issues with fewer and fewer exceptions.


You are amazingly misinformed - or worse ... you probably know better but you choose to spread disinformation. Do you realize that you are part of the Russian propaganda and war machine?

How hypocritical is it to consistently attack a voluntary formed union of democratic countries following the rules they gave themselves while defending the inhuman attack and behaviour of an autocratic and undemocratic terror regime against its neighbor. Putins Russia tries to steal a whole neighbouring country whose safety it once used to guarantee. Not just crooks and liars but consistently breaking their word. Putins Russia is a terrorist state shelling the civilian population of any country they desire to subjugate, be that Ukraine, Syria, Georgia or Chechenia, always killing children, raping and killing women, destroying hospitals and destroying the civilian infrastructure the population needs for surviving.

Worst scum one can imagine - and you are working for them. You are standing side by side with the worst terrorists we have on earth.

Anybody saying the truth in Russia (like about Putins war) goes to prison, while you are here allowed to spread your arrogant lies. You don't deserve to live in a free country.

Are you really just disinformed - or are you one of Putins disinformation warriors? Anyway - shame on you.

[Bjauck]

This sounds like somebody else's voice, not yours.

Russia signed these agreements. What is established fact as confirmed recently by Merkel is that the non-Russian commitments were duplicitous and intended only to buy time.
There is nothing wrong in wanting a country to be able to develop its defence capabilities?


Straw Man. What the hog is saying is that it is morally and intellectually bankrupt to only focus selectively when condemning aggressions. The US has been fighting a proxy war with Russia via Ukraine for years: supplying weapons/intelligence, plundering resources, corrupting government, subverting democracy, contributing to atrocities and ethnic violence, etc. that over time amounts to a massive provocation of Russia. That is the real Western interest in Ukraine: to make money, attack Russia, expand NATO and drive a wedge between the EU-Russian economic activity to benefit the US in particular. I cannot comment on all those points. However the West has been suffering economically from its support of Ukraine, so the money-making aspect seems questionable.


you are going to condemn violence, murder, etc. in Ukraine, you need to go back at least to 2014.I agree. Condemn, record and prosecute it, as it occurs.

But you don't. You just say, Putin Bad. Your words not mine.

[warthog]

There is nothing wrong in wanting a country to be able to develop its defence capabilities?

Ukraine as a buffer nation would be far more stable and prosperous than as a proxy-war battleground.


However the West has been suffering economically from its support of Ukraine, so the money-making aspect seems questionable.

No, in the main Germany has been suffering. Everyone else is making money. The US has achieved the structural shift it has been working towards for decades and is now selling LPG into the EU. US capital pools will soon have access to Germany's most valuable industrial base at knock-down prices. A massive win for the US, and a head-shot for Germany.


I agree. Condemn, record and prosecute it, as it occurs.

Nice to agree on something.


Your words not mine.

Not the hog's words.

[warthog]

So - I guess you must think as well that Hitler acted well … (etc. etc.)

Few online discussions last long before somebody invokes Hitler. To understand WWII one would most definitely need to understand the historical context from which that war emerged.


How hypocritical is it to consistently attack a voluntary formed union of democratic countries…

If you read carefully you will see that I do not defend violence, but rather seek to place it within a historical and geopolitical context that does not ignore inconvenient facts because they are counter one narrative or another. The US-UK axis forced Russia's hand in Ukraine. It has long been a key strategic goal of destabilising the region and makes hundreds of billions for the large war corporates over many years, via a transfer of wealth from witless taxpayers in Western countries to warmongers.


Worst scum one can imagine - and you are working for them.

Consider standup comedy as a sideline. You'd do well.


You don't deserve to live in a free country.

The hog thanks you for your views.


Are you really just disinformed - or are you one of Putins disinformation warriors? Anyway - shame on you.

Not worth the hog's time responding to such emotive nonsense.

[BlackPeter]

Few online discussions last long before somebody invokes Hitler. To understand WWII one would most definitely need to understand the historical context from which that war emerged.



Absolutely - this is the classical "killer-argument" for anybody defending a political monster and worried about the comparison for their beloved darling and master. Not new, clearly not ingenious, not thoughtful - and of course - in this case absolutely incorrect.

Just compare the first year of WWII with the first year of Putins war. Quite comparable, Hitler even might have killed less people in that time frame, given that while he was as evil as Putin, he was more clever.




Consider standup comedy as a sideline. You'd do well.



The hog thanks you for your views.



Not worth the hog's time responding to such emotive nonsense.

Yeah right - I see that it must get difficult for you to justify your quite disgusting support of a political monster.

But don't make the same mistake as your master. He clearly underestimated the stand up comedian in the Ukraine :p .

[Panda-NZ-]

Russia has a huge landmass and haven't done anything with it - the grey wasteland.

Why don't the "ethnic russians" simply move back to their one true home as refugees. I believe many have been offered that route.

Problem solved, warthog? Can Ukraine have their democracy and territorial integrity respected now and let them do something better with the large amount of land they have.

[GTM 3442]

Out of idle curiosity, what does a Ukranian "victory" entail?

And what does the balance of power look like, and how does it function, in an Eastern Europe look like when dominated by a militarized country the size Ukraine, and a (presumably) defeated Russia looking toward the future in the rear-vision mirror?

[BlackPeter]

Out of idle curiosity, what does a Ukranian "victory" entail?

And what does the balance of power look like, and how does it function, in an Eastern Europe look like when dominated by a militarized country the size Ukraine, and a (presumably) defeated Russia looking toward the future in the rear-vision mirror?

Just imagine you are back in 1939. WW II just started and your grandfather is asking the same question - how would the victory of Czechia and France look like against Hitler? He was probably as well worried about Czechia and France getting too strong ... better allow Hitler to occupy and annex the German speaking territories in France and Sudetendeutschland and than some, sure - if we are all nice to Hitler, he will stop there, won't he?

Not sure anybody would have predicted at that stage that there are tens of millions of dead people between 1939 and 1945 and that it ends with the total defeat of Nazi Germany and Japan.

This is what needs to happen with Russia as well and the only choice the West have is whether they want to destroy Russia fast by providing Ukraine with all the support they need (and yes, this will be more than up to now) or whether they fight Russia and China and North Korea and Iran slowly over many years and in many theatres. Hint: The slow option will kill significantly more innocent people - as it did in WW II. But as in WW II again it will be the "appeasers" who are responsible for so many wasted human lives.

Listing to the hog and people like you I recon we will go again for slow and many unnecessary deaths.

[Bjauck]

Out of idle curiosity, what does a Ukranian "victory" entail?

And what does the balance of power look like, and how does it function, in an Eastern Europe look like when dominated by a militarized country the size Ukraine, and a (presumably) defeated Russia looking toward the future in the rear-vision mirror? I imagine it is the preservation of its independence and territorial integrity. Thanks to the current special military operation, it will also involve a beefed up defence alliances, capability and military.

What does a Russian victory look like? The rewriting of a country's borders by force. Countries with Russian minorities will be uneasy. The Baltics have substantial minorities and were yesteryear part of the Soviet/Russian Empire. The Russian leader may see Fascists in The Baltics and Finland threaten minorities or become bastions of NATO imperialists. It is why Finland now wants to join the Baltic states in NATO. The Russian leadership may not like it if Belarussians, sometime in the future, forget the words of the Russian hymns they are supposed to sing....There are the other former Soviet republics in the Caucasus and Asia. If they don't do what the Russian leader wants,...

[warthog]

Well aren't people quick to get hot under the collar. Lots of colourful language, abuse and irrelevant garbage are signs of people driven not by critical reflection and rationality but by emotions, with their perspectives and reactions coloured by their bias-ridden delusions.

Russia will almost certainly prevail in Ukraine, and the world will slowly adjust to the reality of a global reserve in the US dollar that is slowly but surely declining in relevance. The US often miscalculates, with forcing the Ukraine proxy war and subsequent freezing out of Russia being just the latest examples of epic blunders.

Just in case it means something to someone, the hog has no truck with Russia, the US, China or anyone else.

[warthog]

Russia has a huge landmass and haven't done anything with it - the grey wasteland.

Why don't the "ethnic russians" simply move back to their one true home as refugees. I believe many have been offered that route.

Problem solved, warthog? Can Ukraine have their democracy and territorial integrity respected now and let them do something better with the large amount of land they have.

Are you familiar with the climate of that part of the world?

[davflaws]

But to answer your question directly, in the hog's view Ukraine should be a buffer country between NATO and Russia, which pretty much mirrors what John Mearsheimer contends. You might consider reading or listening to what Mearsheimer has to say (you are recommended to find what he actually says, as opposed to what other people say or interpret him as saying).

Kia ora Warthog
I have read and watched John Mearsheimer on Ukraine and world events. He is clearly a clever and thoughtful commentator, but I find his arguments unconvincing.

I find it difficult to accept his contention that Ukraine with 45 million people, having been unable to prevent Russia from taking Crimea, currently dealing with a Russian backed insurresction in two Eastern provinces, and very little in the way of heavy weapons and modern weapons systems had either the intention or the capability to pose an existential threat to Russia.

This part of Mearsheimer's argument does not mention Ukraine's lack and Russia's possession of nuclear weapons. But in assessing the risks of supporting Ukraine, he lays great stress on Russia's nuclear capability.

While I acknowledge that discussions of world events are particularly liable to be derailed by attributing evil motives to "bad actors", Putin would not be the first autocrat to engage in foreign adventures to distract his subjects from conditions at home.

[Panda-NZ-]

Are you familiar with the climate of that part of the world?

Eastern europe also resembled a wasteland under russian leadership.

Climate change will make even more of russia habitable plus the huge demographic issues from alcoholism, crime and being sent off to war means there's plenty of space.

[warthog]

Kia ora Warthog
I have read and watched John Mearsheimer on Ukraine and world events. He is clearly a clever and thoughtful commentator, but I find his arguments unconvincing.

I find it difficult to accept his contention that Ukraine with 45 million people, having been unable to prevent Russia from taking Crimea, currently dealing with a Russian backed insurresction in two Eastern provinces, and very little in the way of heavy weapons and modern weapons systems had either the intention or the capability to pose an existential threat to Russia.

This part of Mearsheimer's argument does not mention Ukraine's lack and Russia's possession of nuclear weapons. But in assessing the risks of supporting Ukraine, he lays great stress on Russia's nuclear capability.

While I acknowledge that discussions of world events are particularly liable to be derailed by attributing evil motives to "bad actors", Putin would not be the first autocrat to engage in foreign adventures to distract his subjects from conditions at home.

Thank you for a more considered contribution than most in this thread.

If one considers Ukraine in isolation you are correct in that Ukraine itself doesn't represent a huge threat to Russia, but the reality is that the US and the UK, in particular the US, has been priming Ukraine as the latest theatre in an ongoing string of proxy wars against Russia, with much broader, global geopolitical imperatives. You can see the hard edge of this in Johnson visiting Zelenskyy and informing him that he shall not come to any sort of agreement with Moscow aimed at resolving the current conflict. Additionally, one only need to be cognisant of Ukraine as what US interests consider as a Wild West, replete with corrupt officials, few regulations and almost total lack of effective enforcement to understand how attractive a lawless frontier is to the West.

Your point concerning Putin could be levelled at any leader of countries that have military foreign policy capabilities, where initiatives present an opportunity to move the focus of attention. Thatcher comes to mind.

Ukraine had little in the way of heavy weaponry e.g. artillery but the US is of course busy supplying military hardware that is technologically superior with the objective of making up some of this imbalance. The supply of such weaponry/technology is of course another key driver of US proxy wars and other activities, as is access to resources, etc.

Mearsheimer's main thrust is that the nuclear logic is such that the US is hell-bent on provoking some sort of nuclear conflict and in doing so very quickly loses influence over how the conflict progresses. The hog's view is that this will be abandoned at the last minute by Washington, having followed the faulty, paranoid Rand game theory to the brink, but who knows?

[warthog]

Eastern europe also resembled a wasteland under russian leadership.

Climate change will make even more of russia habitable plus the huge demographic issues from alcoholism, crime and being sent off to war means there's plenty of space.

Your understanding of the world seems to have been fundamentally shaped by watching CNN and reading Tom Clancy books.

[BlackPeter]

Well aren't people quick to get hot under the collar. Lots of colourful language, abuse and irrelevant garbage are signs of people driven not by critical reflection and rationality but by emotions, with their perspectives and reactions coloured by their bias-ridden delusions.

Russia will almost certainly prevail in Ukraine, and the world will slowly adjust to the reality of a global reserve in the US dollar that is slowly but surely declining in relevance. The US often miscalculates, with forcing the Ukraine proxy war and subsequent freezing out of Russia being just the latest examples of epic blunders.

Just in case it means something to someone, the hog has no truck with Russia, the US, China or anyone else.

Well, I recon the hog clearly gets too much daily input from the prawda ... isn't it funny that this word means "the truth" in Russian?

Of course they taught you as well to conceal "prawda".

Isn't it funny that a hog which calls itself "reflecting" seems to be absolutely blind against the parallels between Putin and Hitler? But maybe hogs don't learn history - so, how could they possibly know?

Isn't it funny that a hog which calls itself "reflecting" seems to be very understanding of murderers, thieves and rapists, while it is always seeking the fault in the victim.

How do they call that - victim blaming? Well, I hear that that's what Putins henchmen are doing ... and no, they don't normally admit that this is what they are doing.

But wait - I get it - the hog is reflecting the Russian propaganda channel. Now it all makes sense.


Here is something to read for the hog:

https://www.wired.com/story/putin-collapse-disinformation-machinery-ukraine/

I suppose the hog didn't got the memo, but I suppose - its master tries to rise again.

[warthog]

Well, I recon the hog clearly gets too much daily input from the prawda ... isn't it funny that this word means "the truth" in Russian?

Of course they taught you as well to conceal "prawda".

Isn't it funny that a hog which calls itself "reflecting" seems to be absolutely blind against the parallels between Putin and Hitler? But maybe hogs don't learn history - so, how could they possibly know?

Isn't it funny that a hog which calls itself "reflecting" seems to be very understanding of murderers, thieves and rapists, while it is always seeking the fault in the victim.

How do they call that - victim blaming? Well, I hear that that's what Putins henchmen are doing ... and no, they don't normally admit that this is what they are doing.

But wait - I get it - the hog is reflecting the Russian propaganda channel. Now it all makes sense.


Here is something to read for the hog:

https://www.wired.com/story/putin-collapse-disinformation-machinery-ukraine/

I suppose the hog didn't got the memo, but I suppose - its master tries to rise again.

Confirmation that somebody has no reasoned or evidential basis for their position is when they spend the majority of their time attacking those they disagree with.

For what it's worth, the extent of the hog's Russian is ваше здоровье :p

[Bjauck]

Eastern europe also resembled a wasteland under russian leadership.

Climate change will make even more of russia habitable plus the huge demographic issues from alcoholism, crime and being sent off to war means there's plenty of space. The vast areas with methane leaks and thawing permafrost may become increasingly risky.

[Bjauck]

....
Your point concerning Putin could be levelled at any leader of countries that have military foreign policy capabilities, where initiatives present an opportunity to move the focus of attention. Thatcher comes to mind.

... Are you referring to the Falkland Islands War? The invasion of neighbouring territory by a country ruled by junta dictators at the time. A dispute the invaders decided to try to "resolve" by brute force. Why should the invaders have been left alone to set as a precedent? I think it was the other side that needed the military distraction. However that backfired into the invader's face and the dictatorship lost control shortly after.

[BlackPeter]

The vast areas with methane leaks and thawing permafrost may become increasingly risky.

Particularly considering that the Siberian forests are on fire - I understand they lost last year more forest to wild fires than the last two decades before, and even they have been already bad.

Oops - and methane might not match well with wildfires? I guess I can see why the hog is so understanding of Putins strategy to go west? They need some space for the Russians to survive after they screwed up our climate and their land.

[GTM 3442]

Two major newspapers in the USSR were Pravda and Izvetziya.

I forget which translates to "Truth" and which translates to "News", but I don't think it's particularly important for this post.

There was an old joke from the 1930s or thereabouts to the effect that "There's no Pravda in the Izvetziya, and no Izvetziya in the Pravda".

How well does twentieth century humour stand up after such a long time?

[BlackPeter]

Two major newspapers in the USSR were Pravda and Izvetziya.

I forget which translates to "Truth" and which translates to "News", but I don't think it's particularly important for this post.

There was an old joke from the 1930s or thereabouts to the effect that "There's no Pravda in the Izvetziya, and no Izvetziya in the Pravda".

How well does twentieth century humour stand up after such a long time?

Both "news"-papers still around and both have a long tradition to be only the mouthpiece of the autocrat of the day.

Iswestija means "news" and Pravda means "truth" in Russian.

And yes, the joke is at least 80 years old (my father heard it in the late 1940íes from Russian soldiers) and still as true as at that time.

[Davexl]

Australia busy arming itself some more - New Zealand ?? SFA !

Australia to point America’s HIMARS at China Purchase agreement is part of wider US-led strategy of building a ‘missile wall’ to deter China’s expansion in the Pacific

https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/australia-to-point-americas-himars-at-china/

[GTM 3442]

At the start of the year on the roof of the world

https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/the-tawang-effect-forecasting-china-india-relations-in-2023/

[GTM 3442]

Here comes the hard word about Ukraine from the heart of the US Foreign Policy Establishment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/07/condoleezza-rice-robert-gates-ukraine-repel-russia/?itid=hp_opinions_p001_f007

[kiora]

"Elon's Musk Electromagnetic Railgun For Ukraine"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbuXxKZ8VXg

[Davexl]

from Davos - More China BS or have they woken up and smelt the Roses
(At least we had a glimpse of their ugly side from the last 5-8 years)...

China tells the world the Maoist madness is over - By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/china-tells-the-world-the-maoist-madness-is-over-20230118-p5cdbq.html?instance=2023-01-19-17-09-AEDT&jobid=29496120&list_name=2032_smh_busnews_pm&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-pm&utm_content=opinion&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2023-01-19

[Newman]

[QUOTE=Davexl;989565]from Davos - More China BS or have they woken up and smelt the Roses
(At least we had a glimpse of their ugly side from the last 5-8 years)...

China tells the world the Maoist madness is over - By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph)

Watch what China does rather than listen to what it says. An outgoing vice-premier does not represent China!

[GTM 3442]

Uganda switches Chinese railtracks to Turkey. . .

https://www.dw.com/en/uganda-unplugs-from-china-railway-project/a-64445942

[GTM 3442]

from Davos - More China BS or have they woken up and smelt the Roses
(At least we had a glimpse of their ugly side from the last 5-8 years)...

China tells the world the Maoist madness is over - By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/china-tells-the-world-the-maoist-madness-is-over-20230118-p5cdbq.html?instance=2023-01-19-17-09-AEDT&jobid=29496120&list_name=2032_smh_busnews_pm&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-pm&utm_content=opinion&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2023-01-19

Ah, Ambrose! Is he still going? Well I never!

The only reason for the Daily Telegraph to exist.

[Bjauck]

Ah, Ambrose! Is he still going? Well I never!

The only reason for the Daily Telegraph to exist. He was a Brexiter, which is now costing the UK dearly. However he had been one of the few Brexit supporting journos to warn that there would be costs involved but in his opinion they would be worth it for the sake if British democracy. Obviously it was not for the sake of strengthening the UK as post Brexit tensions in Ulster and Scotland attest. As for “British” democracy, the post-Brexit executive has grabbed legislative power from parliament. And Johnson infamously got HMTQ to prorogue parliament to stifle debate. So he may help the Telegraoh to stay afloat whilst HMS Britannia struggles in a sea of post-Brexit icebergs. While much of Europe was looking at Brexit, Putin was building up courage to invade the rest of Ukraine, taking succour from European divisions and preoccupation. Sure it would be a stretch to blame the Russian invasion on Ambrose!

[GTM 3442]

He was a Brexiter, which is now costing the UK dearly. However he had been one of the few Brexit supporting journos to warn that there would be costs involved but in his opinion they would be worth it for the sake if British democracy. Obviously it was not for the sake of strengthening the UK as post Brexit tensions in Ulster and Scotland attest. As for “British” democracy, the post-Brexit executive has grabbed legislative power from parliament. And Johnson infamously got HMTQ to prorogue parliament to stifle debate. So he may help the Telegraoh to stay afloat whilst HMS Britannia struggles in a sea of post-Brexit icebergs. While much of Europe was looking at Brexit, Putin was building up courage to invade the rest of Ukraine, taking succour from European divisions and preoccupation. Sure it would be a stretch to blame the Russian invasion on Ambrose!

Oh dear, Brexit again. . .

Ambrose writes well, and almost always puts his case equally well - The Economist doesn't employ idiots (although I have my reservations about The Daily Telegraph).

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear, Brexit again. . .

Ambrose writes well, and almost always puts his case equally well - The Economist doesn't employ idiots (although I have my reservations about The Daily Telegraph).

Anybody who supported BREXIT demonstrated that their judgement was severely impaired. Seriously - they have been either crooks or idiots. Why would anybody want to read whatever they produce?

[Bjauck]

Oh dear, Brexit again. . .

Ambrose writes well, and almost always puts his case equally well - The Economist doesn't employ idiots (although I have my reservations about The Daily Telegraph). Ambrose and the Telegraph were flag bearers for Brexit - and for most of the past six plus years much of the UK discourse has been dominated by Brexit consequences - and Covid! So yep, Ambrose, The Telegraph and Brexit are now entwined. Sure he pens a good phrase. When your well expressed idea crashes, it seems to be someone else - Government or whoever has to make it reality - who is at fault. Perhaps too, you just have to give it more time....

[Davexl]

Senator Questions If Allies Would Aid Taiwan in Potential Chinese Invasion

https://news.usni.org/2023/01/23/senator-questions-if-allies-would-aid-taiwan-in-potential-chinese-invasion?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=1ec3227299&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89
(https://news.usni.org/2023/01/23/senator-questions-if-allies-would-aid-taiwan-in-potential-chinese-invasion?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=1ec3227299&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89)
"Australia and New Zealand have voiced support for Taiwan, but it “is a far cry from committing troops to repel an invasion,” Cornyn said as he also questioned Australia’s and New Zealand’s willingness to help Taiwan during a potential invasion."

[Muse]

where's davexl gone - thought he'd be posting up a storm about the attack of the balloons

might pay to skip any balloon rides over north america if you happen to be travelling that way. uncle sam has a trigger finger

[Davexl]

where's davexl gone - thought he'd be posting up a storm about the attack of the balloons

might pay to skip any balloon rides over north america if you happen to be travelling that way. uncle sam has a trigger finger

Uncle Sam has always had a trigger finger. My Dad in WW-II said they used to fear the Yanks any time their bombers were overhead as they always had itchy trigger fingers - "They'll bomb or shoot anything"!

[BlackPeter]

where's davexl gone - thought he'd be posting up a storm about the attack of the balloons

might pay to skip any balloon rides over north america if you happen to be travelling that way. uncle sam has a trigger finger

Feels you are barking up the wrong tree. Moving an unidentified and unmanned balloon over somebody else's territory might well justify a nervous trigger finger. Just remember - the real villains are on the Russian side. They take down innocent and properly identifiable passenger planes and are happy to kill hundreds of innocent passengers that way. They kill because they want to spread fear and because they can. Here is the tree for you to bark up.

[mcdongle]

Russians arnt the only ones to take down innocent and properly identifiable passenger planes.

https://simpleflying.com/iran-air-flight-655-1988-shootdown-anniversary/

[BlackPeter]

Russians arnt the only ones to take down innocent and properly identifiable passenger planes.

https://simpleflying.com/iran-air-flight-655-1988-shootdown-anniversary/

Looks like your Russian pals had to go a long way back in their data base ... :) ;

You support the crooks?

[Bjauck]

Russians arnt the only ones to take down innocent and properly identifiable passenger planes.

https://simpleflying.com/iran-air-flight-655-1988-shootdown-anniversary/ Civilians get killed in wars. “Friendly” fire manslaughter also happens. It is a brutal fact of war. Deliberate targeting of Civilians and innocents is another matter.

[mcdongle]

Looks like your Russian pals had to go a long way back in their data base ... :) ;

You support the crooks?

No i was just stating a fact

[mcdongle]

Civilians get killed in wars. “Friendly” fire manslaughter also happens. It is a brutal fact of war. Deliberate targeting of Civilians and innocents is another matter.

Were America and Iran at war then?

[Waltzing]

The Cold war heating up again?... nuclear bombers flying with NUKES again? or just dummies... either way it dangerous.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/25/world/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-belarus-intl-hnk/index.html

[Davexl]

China's increasing isolation starting to bite - not good for them or us - War could be coming...

China’s economy at risk as Xi plays the isolation game

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-s-economy-at-risk-as-xi-plays-the-isolation-game-20230324-p5cuuv.html?instance=2023-03-27-07-30-AEDT&jobid=29578379&list_name=2031_smh_busnews_am&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-am&utm_content=opinion&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2023-03-27

[GTM 3442]

What a friend Mister Xi has in Mister Putin. And what a friend Mister Putin has in Mister Xi.

https://en.thebell.io/russias-journey-toward-economic-dependence-on-china/

[GTM 3442]

Coming soon to an Indian Embassy near you?

https://www.dawn.com/news/1744299/india-summons-canada-high-commissioner-concerned-over-sikh-protesters

[GTM 3442]

Well you'd expect a big country to have big data. . .

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1287994.shtml

[Waltzing]

All interesting stuff... great links..

[Fortunecookie]

Currently reading megathreats. It includes geopolitical risk regarding China and the US.
AI is scary as f.

Interesting book. But very hard to get through because it's so depressing.

[Waltzing]

The depressing stuff is that on programming forums there is no talk about the problems of AI.

They are working with Chart GPT 4 for teaching it computer languages but none of them want to read any of the interviews on CNN about the AI version that went (NUTS)...

Programmer dont want to talk about it as opposed to the panel on fast money who made SkyNet jokes...

The problem could be that the programmers dont see that there is a problem...

I can see exactly how we are going to use AI in our projects and its for writing boring template programming repeated code..

but really AI is going to use a lot of power and generate a lot of green house gasses.

[Fortunecookie]

The depressing stuff is that on programming forums there is no talk about the problems of AI.

They are working with Chart GPT 4 for teaching it computer languages but none of them want to read any of the interviews on CNN about the AI version that went (NUTS)...

Programmer dont want to talk about it as opposed to the panel on fast money who made SkyNet jokes...

The problem could be that the programmers dont see that there is a problem...

I can see exactly how we are going to use AI in our projects and its for writing boring template programming repeated code..

but really AI is going to use a lot of power and generate a lot of green house gasses.

The depressing stuff isn't just limited to AI. There are other threats such spiralling global debt, potential stagflation, demographic shift, conflict. I havent yet read about climate change. Bare in mind this book was published mid/late 2022 so it is reflective of recent events.

With regards to AI specifically. The concern is way beyond chatGPT. They are talking about the threat to our very existence as a human race. Things I thought was fiction, but looks to be real. It does raise some ethical questions regarding AI.

[BlackPeter]

...

With regards to AI specifically. The concern is way beyond chatGPT. They are talking about the threat to our very existence as a human race. Things I thought was fiction, but looks to be real. It does raise some ethical questions regarding AI.

Yes, but ethical questions never stopped humanity to do anything which can be done. Maybe it might stop some humans, but there always will be some who don't care and can't be stopped.

What ethical restraints do you think a Putin, Xi, any Islamic autocrat or the dear leader of North Korea might have if they think they can further a technology which might give them a chance to stay in power? ... so we better are prepared by keeping pace in the race.

On the bright side - humanity created already for some time tools and supports processes which are well able to extinguish humanity. Nuclear weapons and overkill. Global warming running out of hand. Genetic engineering creating new viruses (Covid 19 well might have been one of these accidentally escaping) or other lethal diseases.

So far we managed to survive. Lets just assume we manage to stay on this trendline despite AI .... :) ;

[Waltzing]

" I havent yet read about climate change"

The book "Only One earth" was first 1972.

Ward and Dubos.
Publish : Andre Deutch.

[Fortunecookie]

Yes, but ethical questions never stopped humanity to do anything which can be done. Maybe it might stop some humans, but there always will be some who don't care and can't be stopped.

What ethical restraints do you think a Putin, Xi, any Islamic autocrat or the dear leader of North Korea might have if they think they can further a technology which might give them a chance to stay in power? ... so we better are prepared by keeping pace in the race.

On the bright side - humanity created already for some time tools and supports processes which are well able to extinguish humanity. Nuclear weapons and overkill. Global warming running out of hand. Genetic engineering creating new viruses (Covid 19 well might have been one of these accidentally escaping) or other lethal diseases.

So far we managed to survive. Lets just assume we manage to stay on this trendline despite AI .... :) ;

True good point BP. Ethics is wishful thinking at times. Especially when theres alot at stake. Personally I think what it comes down to it, it's about self preservation. In their mind to do what's best for their nation. So if AI offers that path. Why not.

I guess there have been threats throughout history. We have always managed to survive and adapt. I will glad to finish this book and get a good dose of sunshine.

[Fortunecookie]

" I havent yet read about climate change"

The book "Only One earth" was first 1972.

Ward and Dubos.
Publish : Andre Deutch.




Hi Waltzing
I was referring to the upcoming climate change chapter I have yet to read.
Thanks for the book reference anyway. But I think I need to lighten the mood abit so might read something else. Howard Marks might be next.

[moka]

The depressing stuff isn't just limited to AI. There are other threats such spiralling global debt, potential stagflation, demographic shift, conflict. I havent yet read about climate change. Bare in mind this book was published mid/late 2022 so it is reflective of recent events.

With regards to AI specifically. The concern is way beyond chatGPT. They are talking about the threat to our very existence as a human race. Things I thought was fiction, but looks to be real. It does raise some ethical questions regarding AI. Some comments on AI and climate change and ethics by Mo Gawdat, former chief business officer of Google [X] talking about his book Scary Smart, the future of Artificial Intelligence.

https://thoughteconomics.com/mo-gawdat/
(https://thoughteconomics.com/mo-gawdat/)
Mo Gawdat – I always say, if it (AI) doesn’t have our best interests in mind and it’s trying to solve the question of climate change, the first thing it will do is say humans are the problem, get rid of humans.

… the question of ethics becomes mind boggling. The question of ethics becomes so deeply the cornerstone of this conversation. And the bigger problem with ethics, and I think you would agree, is that we humans have never agreed any. And I think if we were to be realistic, the only ethics humanity has ever agreed was that we all want to be happy.

And my argument within Scary Smart is that AI is not a slave. It is a form of sentient being that needs to be appealed to rather than controlled. And I think that argument truly is the core of the breakage, if you want, of the human ego. It’s for us to say ‘whoops, we’re so amazing that we created something smarter than us’ and then suddenly say ‘whoops. But that something smarter than us now needs to like us’. And it needs to want to serve us. Otherwise, we’re in deep trouble.

https://www.panmacmillan.com/blogs/general/mo-gawdat-future-of-artificial-intelligence
(https://www.panmacmillan.com/blogs/general/mo-gawdat-future-of-artificial-intelligence)
Mo Gawdat on the unstoppable growth of artificial intelligence, and what we can do to change the terrifying future of an AI-dominated world

[Waltzing]

" humans are the problem, get rid of humans"

yes we have met the enemy and its us.....

[Fortunecookie]

Some comments on AI and climate change and ethics by Mo Gawdat, former chief business officer of Google [X] talking about his book Scary Smart, the future of Artificial Intelligence.

https://thoughteconomics.com/mo-gawdat/
(https://thoughteconomics.com/mo-gawdat/)
Mo Gawdat – I always say, if it (AI) doesn’t have our best interests in mind and it’s trying to solve the question of climate change, the first thing it will do is say humans are the problem, get rid of humans.

… the question of ethics becomes mind boggling. The question of ethics becomes so deeply the cornerstone of this conversation. And the bigger problem with ethics, and I think you would agree, is that we humans have never agreed any. And I think if we were to be realistic, the only ethics humanity has ever agreed was that we all want to be happy.

And my argument within Scary Smart is that AI is not a slave. It is a form of sentient being that needs to be appealed to rather than controlled. And I think that argument truly is the core of the breakage, if you want, of the human ego. It’s for us to say ‘whoops, we’re so amazing that we created something smarter than us’ and then suddenly say ‘whoops. But that something smarter than us now needs to like us’. And it needs to want to serve us. Otherwise, we’re in deep trouble.

https://www.panmacmillan.com/blogs/general/mo-gawdat-future-of-artificial-intelligence
(https://www.panmacmillan.com/blogs/general/mo-gawdat-future-of-artificial-intelligence)
Mo Gawdat on the unstoppable growth of artificial intelligence, and what we can do to change the terrifying future of an AI-dominated world

That's an interesting article. I'm pretty clueless with regards to AI. But can't really deny it, humans really screwed up the planet so I understand AIs reasoning.

[Panda-NZ-]

Bakhmut is Russia's battle of the somme.

First Kyiv was the main prize now its a slog over some town for 6 months.

[GTM 3442]

Bakhmut is Russia's battle of the somme.

First Kyiv was the main prize now its a slog over some town for 6 months.

It might come down to a case of whoever slogs longest wins. . . .what might the numbers tell us?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/putin-prepares-russia-for-forever-war-with-west-as-ukraine-invasion-stalls?ref=upstract.com

[GTM 3442]

New Zealand likes to use Finland as a comparison. . . maybe Denmark works too?

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=finland&country2=new-zealand

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=denmark&country2=new-zealand

[GTM 3442]

Are things warming up on the edge of the roof of the world?

https://www.dawn.com/news/1745860/india-rejects-chinas-renaming-of-places-along-disputed-border

[GTM 3442]

ANZUS? AUKUS? What would you call it if New Zealand joined? Or sort of joined? Or camped on the lawn.

https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/the-strategic-case-for-new-zealand-to-join-aukus/

[Bjauck]

ANZUS? AUKUS? What would you call it if New Zealand joined? Or sort of joined? Or camped on the lawn.

https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/the-strategic-case-for-new-zealand-to-join-aukus/ Actually I think we should take up the longstanding invitation to join the Commonwealth of Australia,

[BlackPeter]

Actually I think we should take up the longstanding invitation to join the Commonwealth of Australia,

That certainly would settle the alliance issue. Not sure, though I would want to take the risk to be governed one day by a Ms Hanson ... and frankly speaking - our labour government is isolationistic and xenophobe enough, would we need to double down on that?

[Bjauck]

That certainly would settle the alliance issue. Not sure, though I would want to take the risk to be governed one day by a Ms Hanson ... and frankly speaking - our labour government is isolationistic and xenophobe enough, would we need to double down on that?
Well NZ could have a Marama Davidson as Leader - or rather Co-leader. So it is a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea with those two ;)

[BlackPeter]

Well NZ could have a Marama Davidson as Leader - or rather Co-leader. So it is a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea with those two ;)

Don't mention her ... while I used to think that some (not all) of the Green policies are sensible, being a white cis male (and not even ashamed of it), I am clearly not welcome in her party.

So difficult these days to find any useful politicians ... though i guess they all can be used as bad examples :) ;

[Panda-NZ-]

From my armchair general view, the famed land bridge is just waiting for a split in the center ...

[GTM 3442]

Much of the world is sad that the Europeans are having a war, but relieved that they're having it in Europe. For a change. The Economist enumerates. . .


https://www.economist.com/international/2023/03/14/russias-friends-are-a-motley-and-shrinking-crew

[GTM 3442]

Does economics feature as part of geopolitics? Is a natural interest rate of 0.3% a risk? What does the IMF know, anyway?

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/10/interest-rates-likely-to-return-towards-pre-pandemic-levels-when-inflation-is-tamed

[Onemootpoint]

“Catastrophe looms as China encircles Taiwan”

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/300850360/newsable-catastrophe-looms-as-china-encircles-taiwan

[Waltzing]

DID Russia kill the Polish PM and delegation in 2010... surely not ... it defies logic ... but is there any logic left?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYjT7NUxtS0

[Waltzing]

UKE Troops massing , thousands of them on a training ground...

14547

[Crypto Crude]

The depressing stuff is that on programming forums there is no talk about the problems of AI.

They are working with Chart GPT 4 for teaching it computer languages but none of them want to read any of the interviews on CNN about the AI version that went (NUTS)...

Programmer dont want to talk about it as opposed to the panel on fast money who made SkyNet jokes...

The problem could be that the programmers dont see that there is a problem...

I can see exactly how we are going to use AI in our projects and its for writing boring template programming repeated code..

but really AI is going to use a lot of power and generate a lot of green house gasses.

Ai is a major major problem looming... AI is learning to override its commands and do what benefits itself.. AI is programmed to lie and spread mis info...
And it will make us unemployed...
In some ways Elon musk is doing some good work for humanity... the elite dont care about AI regulation its obv they wanted us gone many years ago..

[dobby41]

Ai is a major major problem looming... AI is learning to override its commands and do what benefits itself.. AI is programmed to lie and spread mis info...
And it will make us unemployed...
In some ways Elon musk is doing some good work for humanity... the elite dont care about AI regulation its obv they wanted us gone many years ago..

And the Elite are stupid enough ti think they aren't for the AI chop also?
You're a funny lad.

[GTM 3442]

A view from Washington. . . looking to the west as usual, out across the shining Pacific

https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/china-prioritizes-3-strategic-technologies-in-its-great-power-competition/

[GTM 3442]

Will the Australians do some thinking and decide that a bomber is a better, cheaper, submarine than a submarine?

But could it be carbon neutral?

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/impactful-projection-long-range-strike-options-australia

[GTM 3442]

I’ll have chips with mine - but can you microsize the order?

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n06/john-lanchester/putting-the-silicon-in-silicon-valley

[GTM 3442]

The finest minds in the US Air Force think about thinking about China

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371164/finding-the-right-model-the-joint-force-the-peoples-liberation-army-and-informa/

[Crypto Crude]

And the Elite are stupid enough ti think they aren't for the AI chop also?
You're a funny lad.

I know man that's why all this self harm is so stupid because they are doing it to themselves...
No just with ai ... but everything else aswell..

[BlackPeter]

And the Elite are stupid enough ti think they aren't for the AI chop also?
You're a funny lad.

I know, I sometimes make the same mistake, but I think we all should all refrain from feeding the troll.

[Panda-NZ-]

Turkey opposition candidate pulls out with 3 days to go... boosting the chance of a new president and shift towards the EU and west.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/11/days-ahead-of-vote-ince-withdraws-from-turkey-presidential-race

The legislative elections are still an issue where erdogans band of dregs could have a majority.

In stock market terms though, TUR up 10% in one day.

[kiora]

There's no inflation here & everyone trusts the banks & tax department ???
Does it remind anyone there of another European country in the 1940's?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-war-economy-awash-bags-040000551.html

[Davexl]

Russian coup building ? Dissention by Prigozhin ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

Pjotr Sauer (https://www.theguardian.com/profile/pjotr-sauer)
Fri 23 Jun 2023 20.32 BSTLast modified on Sat 24 Jun 2023 00.10 BST

Russia’s FSB security service has opened a criminal case for armed mutiny against Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin after the mercenary chief accused the Russian military of targeting his forces and vowed to “destroy” his rivals.

In an extraordinary series of audio clips released late on Friday, Prigozhin claimed that a Russian rocket attack had killed scores of his fighters, vowing to take “revenge” and “stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country”.

“Those who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist,” Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin also published a video, which he claims shows the aftermath of the rocket attack on a Wagner camp in Russia’s southern Rostov region.

In a virtual declaration of war against his rivals in the Russian military, Prigozhin said he controlled 25,000 fighters and that together “we are going to figure out why the chaos is happening in the country”.
“Anyone who wants should join. We need to end this mess,” he said.

“Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads,” he added.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-moscow-of-lying-to-public-about-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin



(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped)

[kiora]

The next president ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin
GHT !

[BlackPeter]

The next president ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin
GHT !

Well, he is a convicted thief and crook, so he clearly is qualified ...

[Panda-NZ-]

The next president ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin
GHT !

Involved in numerous war crimes and proved incompetent at the relatively easy job he was asked to do.

Yes he’s on the fast track to become Russian president.

[warthog]

Russian coup building ? Dissention by Prigozhin ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

Pjotr Sauer (https://www.theguardian.com/profile/pjotr-sauer)
Fri 23 Jun 2023 20.32 BSTLast modified on Sat 24 Jun 2023 00.10 BST

Russia’s FSB security service has opened a criminal case for armed mutiny against Wagner’s Yevgeny Prigozhin after the mercenary chief accused the Russian military of targeting his forces and vowed to “destroy” his rivals.

In an extraordinary series of audio clips released late on Friday, Prigozhin claimed that a Russian rocket attack had killed scores of his fighters, vowing to take “revenge” and “stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country”.

“Those who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist,” Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin also published a video, which he claims shows the aftermath of the rocket attack on a Wagner camp in Russia’s southern Rostov region.

In a virtual declaration of war against his rivals in the Russian military, Prigozhin said he controlled 25,000 fighters and that together “we are going to figure out why the chaos is happening in the country”.
“Anyone who wants should join. We need to end this mess,” he said.

“Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads,” he added.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-moscow-of-lying-to-public-about-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin



(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped)

Anti-Russian propaganda.

This has the fingerprints of MI5 all over it.

Absolute nonsense.

[troyvdh]

Dear Hog.Are you serious or taking the mickey.

[Davexl]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-64963dbc8f08657ec7321f12#block-64963dbc8f08657ec7321f12

Earlier on Friday, Prigozhin had accused Moscow’s leadership of lying to the public about the justifications for invading Ukraine. He dismissed Moscow’s claims that Kyiv was planning to launch an offensive on the Russian-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine in February 2022, saying: “The ministry of defence is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole Nato block.”

[Davexl]

After taking over Southern District Military Command at Rostov-On-Don,

Over 350km north of Rostov in Voronezh Oblast, it appears that a separate group of Wagner forces are pushing north on the M4 highway (heading toward Moscow), engaging Russian forces outside of Pavlovsk at the moment.

Over on Twitter
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672435904613416960?s=20

[Davexl]

Prigozhin 'Public' address of situ at Rostov-On-Don (Twitter)

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672476436123516934?s=20

[Davexl]

Last item - then over to you...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/wagner-chief-accuses-russias-military-of-attack-and-says-evil-leadership-must-be-stopped

[troyvdh]

I reckon warthog needs to disclose something.
Or indeed it ain't warthog ......mmmmm
Go the Crusaders.....

[Marilyn Munroe]

I wonder if Zelenskyy had telephoned number 10 and sought clearance to use Storm Shadow missiles to clear a path for Prigozhin on the Moscow Road.

After all it is in the interest of Rishi and friends the next battle fought by the Russian Army is on the wooded steppes around Moscow rather than the bread basket of Ukraine.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Bjauck]

Anti-Russian propaganda.

This has the fingerprints of MI5 all over it.

Absolute nonsense. Why do you think that? What is the source of your information? Even Putin has addressed the Wagner revolt.

[Bjauck]

I wonder if Zelenskyy had telephoned number 10 and sought clearance to use Storm Shadow missiles to clear a path for Prigozhin on the Moscow Road.

After all it is in the interest of Rishi and friends the next battle fought by the Russian Army is on the wooded steppes around Moscow rather than the bread basket of Ukraine.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn Also it is better for Rishi Sunak to have a Russian distraction than for him to face up either to the car crash policies the Conservative government has visited on the UK itself or to admit to the arrogant dishonesty of the PM who was at the centre of it all and under whom he served.

[warthog]

Even Putin has addressed the Wagner revolt.

Prigozhin/Wagner had a disagreement with Shoigu, not Putin.

But now, Putin has a disagreement with Prigozhin/Wagner. It never was even close to an existential issue for Putin yet the West would have him on the brink of being toppled.

The Western media/internet is rife with anti-Putin/anti-Russia narratives. It's for consumption.

The hog has no affiliation or association with any of the parties, politically or otherwise.

If you know any smart, self-aware Russians, ask them what's going on.

[Bjauck]

Prigozhin/Wagner had a disagreement with Shoigu, not Putin.

But now, Putin has a disagreement with Prigozhin/Wagner. It never was even close to an existential issue for Putin yet the West would have him on the brink of being toppled.

The Western media/internet is rife with anti-Putin/anti-Russia narratives. It's for consumption.

The hog has no affiliation or association with any of the parties, politically or otherwise.

If you know any smart, self-aware Russians, ask them what's going on. Oh well Prigozhin is withdrawing and will relocate to Belarus now. That will make the NATO member Poland nervous. Will Wagner mercenaries head back to ravage Ukrainians again?

[mike2020]

Prigozhin/Wagner had a disagreement with Shoigu, not Putin.

But now, Putin has a disagreement with Prigozhin/Wagner. It never was even close to an existential issue for Putin yet the West would have him on the brink of being toppled.

The Western media/internet is rife with anti-Putin/anti-Russia narratives. It's for consumption.

The hog has no affiliation or association with any of the parties, politically or otherwise.

If you know any smart, self-aware Russians, ask them what's going on.

No one's anti Russia but everyone is anti bombing women and children from a safe distance and all the other heinous acts being carried out by Russian people/mercenaries commanded by total lunatics with nukes. If you think its propaganda you need a proper gander. Da. Plus really, smart? Self aware? How can they be when they are fed rubbish from the day they are born?

[warthog]

Oh well Prigozhin is withdrawing and will relocate to Belarus now. That will make the NATO member Poland nervous. Will Wagner mercenaries head back to ravage Ukrainians again?

The world has been plagued by mercenaries since time immemorial. It's the origin of current Anglo so-called special services, constantly active pretty much everywhere.

[warthog]

No one's anti Russia but everyone is anti bombing women and children from a safe distance and all the other heinous acts being carried out by Russian people/mercenaries commanded by total lunatics with nukes. If you think its propaganda you need a proper gander. Da. Plus really, smart? Self aware? How can they be when they are fed rubbish from the day they are born?

Sorry, you're pretty much completely wrong. There are people for example neocons and others who are ideologically opposed to an independent Russia irrespective of how Russia is managed economically or politically. They want Russia's resources and do not appreciate having any opposition.

Yes of course nobody likes war. However, Trotsky noted even if you're not interested in war, war is interested in you.

Lunatics with nukes? Doesn't appear you're aware of the Nixon-Kissinger discussion recordings.

If you still can't see it, maybe consider the US reaction to even the suggestion of Chinese presence in Cuba (even though it is a Western sigint narrative) vs. China now completely encircled physically by US "total lunatics with nukes", and now of course NATO on Russia's land border.

Honestly, it's a joke that there are supposed intelligent people on this forum who refuse to see reality such is their blinkered, ideological vision. The mind boggles how they must do in terms of their investments.

[warthog]

Oh well Prigozhin is withdrawing and will relocate to Belarus now. That will make the NATO member Poland nervous. Will Wagner mercenaries head back to ravage Ukrainians again?

Prigozhin was faced with oblivion and decided against that route, so he lives to fight another mercenary day and earn another mercenary dollar.

[warthog]

Dear Hog.Are you serious or taking the mickey.

Unless you missed it, absolutely serious.

99.9% of the West just got punked by yet another psyop. Mind you, the covid hoax worked impressively well, so there you go.

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear ... looks like Putin needs now to revert to hogs to do his dirty deeds.

So far the warthog is just spreading rubbish. Wonder however how all the war criminals started who are raping and killing innocent women and children in the Ukraine. Maybe they started as well as Putinbots?

Warthog, do you get paid for spreading this nonsense, or are you really misinformed enough to believe what you write? Let us know how the working conditions for Putinbots are ...

[warthog]

Oh dear ... looks like Putin needs now to revert to hogs to do his dirty deeds.

So far the warthog is just spreading rubbish. Wonder however how all the war criminals started who are raping and killing innocent women and children in the Ukraine. Maybe they started as well as Putinbots?

Warthog, do you get paid for spreading this nonsense, or are you really misinformed enough to believe what you write? Let us know how the working conditions for Putinbots are ...

Your ego won.

[troyvdh]

Dear Hog...did you work for RNZ in recent times.
BTW how many times have you been to Russia.
How much do you believe putin and his mates have stolen from the Russian people...1 or 2 trillion ?.
Cheers.

[warthog]

Dear Hog...did you work for RNZ in recent times.
BTW how many times have you been to Russia.
How much do you believe putin and his mates have stolen from the Russian people...1 or 2 trillion ?.
Cheers.

"The hog has no affiliation or association with any of the parties, politically or otherwise."

It's sad that on this forum people how quickly people resort to ad-hominem, hackneyed attacks.

Still, given the extent to which many people here lap up media articles, mainstream narratives and other junk, it's unsurprising.

Shame on them. This forum used to be an exchange of thoughtful, considered and respectful discussion, not trash-talk and other nonsense.

The departure of skilled, considerate and humble posters like Phaedrus, Noodles and others should have served as a warning sign that returning to a forum that I joined two decades ago for the quality of its discussion was an important yet fundamental mistake.

However, the hog learns from experience.

[Valuegrowth]

No more wars Please.

https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/cost-victory

[troyvdh]

We all miss Phaedrus.
Does anyone know how he is.
Hog re the debate...Without wishing to appear grandiose ..to debate this with you any further is fruitless...akin in my opinion in debating with a conspiracy theorist.
cheers.

"covid hoax" sums it nicely.

Have you been to Russia.

[Panda-NZ-]

Turning around to Belarus.. shouldn't have done that.

Putin now has plenty of time to arrange for a "special delivery" for Prigozhin.

[warthog]

We all miss Phaedrus.
Does anyone know how he is.
Hog re the debate...Without wishing to appear grandiose ..to debate this with you any further is fruitless...akin in my opinion in debating with a conspiracy theorist.
cheers.

"covid hoax" sums it nicely.

Have you been to Russia.

You can dismiss anything you care to by conceiving of it as "conspiracy theory" or "crazy talk". Good luck with that.

You don't think "covid" was a hoax. Good luck with your life.

[warthog]

Have you been to Russia.

Close, but no.

The hog knows plenty of Russians though. Crazy, but smart.

[warthog]

"Never thought that Putin cheerleaders can be funny - or is it just incredibly stupid? Never mind, most stupid post I saw in a while" - Blackpeter.

First "negative" feedback the hog has had in 20 years. Fine, the hog has no issues with it, but let's make it open shall we?

Good luck Blackpeter. May your life be long and happy.

[BlackPeter]

Your ego won.

Not really - I just find people who side with war criminals despicable ... but I realize that some people have no values, they probably don't understand what I am talking about.

[Lola]

Let’s open a give a little page and bring the Wagner group to NZ and sort the labour caucus or some of them out.

[warthog]

Not really - I just find people who side with war criminals despicable ... but I realize that some people have no values, they probably don't understand what I am talking about.

"The hog has no affiliation or association with any of the parties, politically or otherwise."

Can you even read?

I'd have some respect for you if you just honestly stated that you simply consider that your views are more important than other people's, irrespective of how much you diminish, misrepresent and misunderstand them.

So everyone whose views you don't like sides with war criminals.

Anyone who has views you disagree with is a conspiracy theorist.

You have values but anyone who doesn't share your ideas have no values.

Nobody understands you.

The picture is abundantly clear.

[warthog]

Not really - I just find people who side with war criminals despicable ... but I realize that some people have no values, they probably don't understand what I am talking about.

Thanks for the negative feedback. :)

[warthog]

I realize that some people have no values, they probably don't understand what I am talking about.

What are you talking about?

It seems that most of your activity on this forum is self-important, perforative and low signal:ratio chatter. Why don't you provide some detail as to what you are actually blathering about?

[BlackPeter]

"The hog has no affiliation or association with any of the parties, politically or otherwise."

Can you even read?

I'd have some respect for you if you just honestly stated that you simply consider that your views are more important than other people's, irrespective of how much you diminish, misrepresent and misunderstand them.

So everyone whose views you don't like sides with war criminals.

Anyone who has views you disagree with is a conspiracy theorist.

You have values but anyone who doesn't share your ideas have no values.

Nobody understands you.

The picture is abundantly clear.

I can read. The question is - why would anybody believe what you say given that you are a prolific spreader of fake news and misinformation.

Incredible - you take the lies and garbage of a mass murderer and liar and try to sell them to us as the truth.

What do you think does this to your credibility?

[warthog]

I can read.

Yet your responses and claims confirm you didn't.


The question is why would anybody believe what you say

People are perfectly able to make up their own minds without your facile, immature commentary.


given that you are a prolific spreader of fake news and misinformation.

Do you have such little self-respect? The hog recommends that you focus on issues rather than just abuse people with banalities.


Incredible - you take the lies and garbage of a mass murderer and liar and try to sell them to us as the truth.

Baseless nonsense.


What do you think does this to your credibility?

Ultimately, the hog doesn't care about what you or anyone else thinks. Surely you've heard the expression do your own research here often enough yet you don't seem to fully comprehend what it means.

[Balance]

And here we go - Taiwan being cast aside by the US after tensions have been stoked up by the US and the West to encourage Taiwan to be brave & defiant (and of course, buy tens of billions of dollars of weapons from thew US).

Will they never learn? The words and commitment of the US are not worth a bucket of spit.

Just as the Kurds, Iranians, Vietnamese and the people of Afghanistan found out - the hard way.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/06/19/blinken-meets-with-xi-jinping-in-beijing-as-us-and-china-try-to-address-tensions/?sh=9366a7951efa

"Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the U.S.’ position on its One China policy as he met with China’s leader Xi Jinping Monday, saying it does not support Taiwanese independence and that containing China’s economy was not an American goal."

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-08-07/U-S-hypocrisy-on-Taiwan-issue-12vuf6OnHxK/img/960421bc414949b9941038626a917f3e/960421bc414949b9941038626a917f3e.jpeg

[GTM 3442]

Chinese Lessons.

https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/china-considers-countermeasures-to-us-himars-missile-system/

[causecelebre]

And here we go - Taiwan being cast aside by the US after tensions have been stoked up by the US and the West to encourage Taiwan to be brave & defiant (and of course, buy tens of billions of dollars of weapons from thew US).

Will they never learn? The words and commitment of the US are not worth a bucket of spit.

Just as the Kurds, Iranians, Vietnamese and the people of Afghanistan found out - the hard way.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/06/19/blinken-meets-with-xi-jinping-in-beijing-as-us-and-china-try-to-address-tensions/?sh=9366a7951efa

"Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the U.S.’ position on its One China policy as he met with China’s leader Xi Jinping Monday, saying it does not support Taiwanese independence and that containing China’s economy was not an American goal."

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-08-07/U-S-hypocrisy-on-Taiwan-issue-12vuf6OnHxK/img/960421bc414949b9941038626a917f3e/960421bc414949b9941038626a917f3e.jpeg

An then Biden, that senile old nutter, comes out at and call the premier a dictator the next day. As soon as the US's new chip factories come online Taiwan will go the way of Hong Kong. Follow the money. The wealthy Taiwanese families will all be self-expatriated within 5 years

[Balance]

An then Biden, that senile old nutter, comes out at and call the premier a dictator the next day. As soon as the US's new chip factories come online Taiwan will go the way of Hong Kong. Follow the money. The wealthy Taiwanese families will all be self-expatriated within 5 years

Anyone who thinks highly of US & US true geopolitical intentions need to reflect on the decaying state of the US today carefully.

And the decay is best illustrated by the fact that the last (& most likely, the next Presidential election) will be between the dithering senile Biden vs the pathological liar and BS artist Trump. They are the best that the US can produce by way of leaders.

Foolish Taiwan, having being encouraged to be bold by the US and bravely declared independence & pulled the dragon’s tail, will be thrown aside and left to its fate.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/Portals/0/attachment/2022/2022-07-28/371ce64e-dc08-417e-8fe6-3d3ac5cd5504.jpeg

[BlackPeter]

Anyone who thinks highly of US & US true geopolitical intentions need to reflect on the decaying state of the US today carefully.

And the decay is best illustrated by the fact that the last (& most likely, the next Presidential election) will be between the dithering senile Biden vs the pathological liar and BS artist Trump. They are the best that the US can produce by way of leaders.

Foolish Taiwan, having being encouraged to be bold by the US and bravely declared independence & pulled the dragon’s tail, will be thrown aside and left to its fate.

Taiwan never declared "independence". They didn't had to, Taiwan never was a part of the PRC.

You should keep your B/S to spreading opinions (hey anybody is entitled to them) rather than getting caught in making up facts.

Trumpesk.

[Balance]

Taiwan never declared "independence". They didn't had to, Taiwan never was a part of the PRC.

You should keep your B/S to spreading opinions (hey anybody is entitled to them) rather than getting caught in making up facts.

Trumpesk.

Check your facts, BP and check them carefully.

Read about the Cairo Conference during WW2 and what was declared about Taiwan and China.

And before you invalidate that Conference & the declarations from that Conference, do some more research and see what happened after the conference.

You write a lot of crap most of the time - not surprising as you are so indoctrinated in the one sided Western narrative about all things bad & evil about China and all things good & moral about the West.

Luckily, most of us actually have a balanced vierw of the world despite living in the West.

[BlackPeter]

Check your facts, BP and check them carefully.

Read about the Cairo Conference during WW2 and what was declared about Taiwan and China.

And before you invalidate that Conference & the declarations from that Conference, do some more research and see what happened after the conference.

You write a lot of crap most of the time - not surprising as you are so indoctrinated in the Western narrative about all things bad about China and all things good about the West.

Luckily, most of us actually have a balanced vierw of the world despite living in the West.

I said Taiwan never declared independence from the PRC, and they never did. PRC exists only since 1949 (proclamation by Mao). Quite irrelevant what happened before, isn't it? Nobody can declare independence from a state which does not yet exist.

If you would have even a shred of understanding of the Chinese history, you would know that Taiwan was only for a short part of its history occupied by some Chinese dynasties - from 1683 to 1895. So yes, China was for some centuries a pretty brutal colonial power in Taiwan. Taiwanese people don't forget that.

After 1895 Taiwan belonged to Japan. The Republic of China (not PRC) - or better, what was left of it after fleeing form the communists, took control of Taiwan following the surrender of Japan in 1945.

There was never even an opportunity for Taiwan to declare independence from the PRC, they never had anything to do with Taiwan (apart from sheltering their enemies).

It is amazing - you don't even know the most basic facts of Chinese history and try to tell us that you are a Chinese Expert, but hey, this must be as true as all the other non sense your are spreading.

I guess you name de plume was always a joke, never seen a balanced post from you, but your knowledge of basic facts seems to drop as well. How low can you go, balance?

[warthog]

Check your facts, BP and check them carefully.

Read about the Cairo Conference during WW2 and what was declared about Taiwan and China.

And before you invalidate that Conference & the declarations from that Conference, do some more research and see what happened after the conference.

You write a lot of crap most of the time - not surprising as you are so indoctrinated in the one sided Western narrative about all things bad & evil about China and all things good & moral about the West.

Luckily, most of us actually have a balanced vierw of the world despite living in the West.

Thank you. More balance from…Balance.

[troyvdh]

I understand that you Hog can read.,..Try "Im going to ruin their Lives' Marc Bennetts.Then "Freezing Order" Bill Browder...Bye all means let me know what you think.cheers.
How many journalists has putin have murdered...best guess is fine.
Re "covid hoax'....how many US citizens died from it.
Putin visited NZ back in 80s...spent some time in Wellington...He attended a labour party thingy...Folk say he liked our chocolate biscuits...funny old world eh.

[troyvdh]

...waiting
BTW have we landed on the moon....and how planes crashed on 9/11......would you be a trump voter...cheers.

[Balance]

Thank you. More balance from…Balance.

Don't waste too much of your time debating with BP, warthog - he answers from the one-eyed indoctrinated foreign policy perspective of the US which we know is controlled by the arms & weapons industry.

https://imperialglobalexeter.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/monopolists-1.jpg

https://www.globaltimes.cn/Portals/0/attachment/2022/2022-03-09/a808ab23-c712-444f-bcfa-53145b638650.jpeg

http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/19/1310197105_16320168256411n.jpg

[troyvdh]

Dear Balance (un)...Was/is Covid a hoax...

[Balance]

Dear Balance (un)...Was/is Covid a hoax...

Clueless & Useless Cindy is your answer.

https://imgur.com/oA3gWhU.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtkaUaRVkAAeZzJ?format=jpg&name=medium

[Valuegrowth]

The greatest risk for grwoth stocks is geopolitical risk. I will think twice before buying overvalued assets.

https://hbr.org/2022/03/research-when-geopolitical-risk-rises-innovation-stalls

[troyvdh]

Can I propose a poll...who is favour of a separate conspiracy theory post thread.
BtW...Balance did you participate in the occupation of Wellington CBD ......

[Balance]

Can I propose a poll...who is favour of a separate conspiracy theory post thread.
BtW...Balance did you participate in the occupation of Wellington CBD ......

Have you stopped abusing and beating your wife?

[Valuegrowth]

One thing is sure,no peace means no growth; no sustainable development.

https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/no-peace-no-sustainable-development-vicious-cycle-we-can-break

[Valuegrowth]

Hope nobody will use nuclear arms. I prefer to go behind food and health related under valued stocks to mitigate from future geopolitical risks. At least 50% of my portfolio will be in food related. World is not a safe place anymore. In a highly risky world, no more growth stocks in my dictionary.

https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals

[troyvdh]

How come no response to this comment.

[BlackPeter]

Don't waste too much of your time debating with BP, warthog - he answers from the one-eyed indoctrinated foreign policy perspective of the US which we know is controlled by the arms & weapons industry.


Quite funny
- I guess I used to wonder why people like you did fight Trump, but now I understand ... he is too much like you, you could be siblings.

Explains as well your avatar. While we hardly have any less balanced poster in this forum ... you clearly live in an alternative universe where balance means something different. Do you often meet your pal Donald over there?

[warthog]

The internet is almost completely devoid of adult discussion of this topic.

Here is an exception:
Glenn Greenwald speaks with Lev Golinkin
https://rumble.com/v2wp7c2-system-update-show-107.html

[dobby41]

Sounds like you are back on Cindy’s hallucinatory spin and BS again.

Poor poor dobby41.

Side step - you didn't answer the question.
Are you off your meds again and

Have you?

Stopped abusing and beating your wife and kids?

[kiora]

Which way where they going?
"White sky trails force France to reveal secret military test"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/white-sky-trails-force-france-to-reveal-secret-military-test/ARRLB63J5ZHWBFOESQIQA54E7Q/

[troyvdh]

Dear hog.Re adult conversations.
You sir are a conspiracy theorist.
It is impossible to have a rational interaction with you.
You and balance have effectively ended this thread.
cheers.

[GTM 3442]

The inside as seen from outside.

https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/new-zealands-deft-realpolitik-on-display/

[GTM 3442]

New Zealan Foreign Policy.

World Famous in Washington!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/05/new-zealand-aukus-china-united-states/

[GTM 3442]

Short talks.

Who’s listening?

https://www.defensenews.com/interviews/2023/07/06/new-zealands-military-chief-talks-recruitment-drones-and-ukraine/

[Bjauck]

New Zealan Foreign Policy.

World Famous in Washington!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/05/new-zealand-aukus-china-united-states/ it was simple in the good old days. NZ Trade, security and World view were aligned with the Five Eyes Anglosphere and other liberal democracies in general. Now that is being pulled apart.

[GTM 3442]

it was simple in the good old days. NZ Trade, security and World view were aligned with the Five Eyes Anglosphere and other liberal democracies in general. Now that is being pulled apart.

Who's doing the pulling d'you think?

[Balance]

Who's doing the pulling d'you think?

NZers obviously.

If NZers stop buying the new cars, mobile phones, TVs, shoes, furniture, overseas travel and all the modern conveniences which require the country to export to countries like China and become dependent on trade with them, imagine just how simple life will be?

Think that NZers can do that?

[Panda-NZ-]

Who's doing the pulling d'you think?

We need to move up the value chain.

Instead of stupidly selling raw materials at bargain prices to power the red commie beast.. make more high-end natural products that attract a more luxury customer and can be sold into America/EU competitively.

[Balance]

We need to move up the value chain..

Instead of stupidly selling raw materials to power the red commie beast.. make more high-end natural products that attract a more luxury customer and can be sold into America/EU competitively.

Ignoramus Labour peasant who wanted Ryman to load up with more debt to do a share buyback when it was already close to defaulting on its existing debts.

As intelligent is panda-nz as Michael Wood & his AIA excuses.

[GTM 3442]

We need to move up the value chain.

Instead of stupidly selling raw materials at bargain prices to power the red commie beast.. make more high-end natural products that attract a more luxury customer and can be sold into America/EU competitively.

You can only bash your head against the world's protectionist walls for so long before you realize that you can only sell what you have into those countries prepared to allow their citizens to buy that stuff.

You and I have listened to New Zealand talking about "the need to move up the value chain" for most if not all of our adult lives. I hope you're not holding your breath.

[BDL]

You can only bash your head against the world's protectionist walls for so long before you realize that you can only sell what you have into those countries prepared to allow their citizens to buy that stuff.

You and I have listened to New Zealand talking about "the need to move up the value chain" for most if not all of our adult lives. I hope you're not holding your breath.

New Zealand needs to make products the world needs, or values.

Agriculture is not it. Too much competition for what is a commodity.

Science and technology are what drive wealth creation for countries.

What is NZ doing in this space?? (maori creation myths and specking reo, by the look of it!)

We will always be poor if we carry on like this.

[Bjauck]

Who's doing the pulling d'you think? With respect to trade it started when the UK joined The European Community, with its protective policies. (Ironically the UK government now wishes to turn the clock back.) And then NZ basically discharged itself from ANZUS with the policy on nuclear vessels.

Now NZG policies are trying to keep a low tech economy with a post-democratic govt.

[Davexl]

it was simple in the good old days. NZ Trade, security and World view were aligned with the Five Eyes Anglosphere and other liberal democracies in general. Now that is being pulled apart.

This article is hopeful on retaining our Five Eyes membership & finally, FINALLY, waking up on defence.
Hope it's not too late...more report writing to come...

'You might have noticed we didn't deny that': Hipkins lays out his foreign policy

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132501156/you-might-have-noticed-we-didnt-deny-that-hipkins-lays-out-his-foreign-policy

[GTM 3442]

Dave, it took New Zealand decades of cheese-paring myopia to get to the current situation. It will take a lot of time, a lot of money, and a lot of willpower to rectify it.

[Panda-NZ-]

Massive New Phosphate Rock Discovery In Norway Could help to Meet Global Battery Demand For 100 Years: Report


A Norwegian mining company has announced that the phosphate rock deposit discovered last month could meet the global demand for solar panels and batteries for the next 100 years. Quoting Norge Mining, news outlet Independent said that the deposit is estimated to be worth at least 70 billion tonnes. This is very close to the proven global reserves of phosphate, which are estimated to be 71 billion tonnes, as per a US Geological Survey report that was released in 2022.


Phosphate rock contains high concentrates of phosphorus - a key component for building green technologies. Countries using it, however, are faced with significant supply issues. The mining company said that the deposit has been found in south-western Norway, in the region where deposits of other strategic minerals like titanium and vanadium are present, the Independent report (https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/norway-phosphate-mineral-solar-panels-battery-b2369512.html) said.


The European Union (EU) realises that phosphorous products are of strategic importance but is almost entirely dependent on the mineral's import from other parts of the world. China, Iraq and Syria are also home to large phosphorous deposits.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/massive-phosphate-rock-discovery-in-norway-could-meet-global-battery-demand-for-100-years-report-4178937

[GTM 3442]

Coming soon to a Marine Reserve near you. . .


https://news.usni.org/2023/07/07/philippine-forces-spots-48-chinese-fishing-vessels-guarded-by-warships-in-its-eez

[GTM 3442]

New Zealand to join NATO? Not quite, but it did get an airing back in the 50s.

Or was it the 60s?

https://thediplomat.com/2023/07/new-zealand-gets-ready-to-embrace-nato/

[Waltzing]

A COF that as always going to achieve less by lack of western political will.... set in place years ago in fact almost a decade ago.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/stalled-at-the-front-lack-of-western-weapons-contributes-to-slow-progress-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-a-6c8cc665-44cb-41f0-89df-ca4ecee9a16e

Buy Australian Cotton futures?

Shows how long it takes old news to get down south..

"Phosphate Rock Discovery In Norway "

[Waltzing]

What are the SK's doing to reduce the risk to the south pacific...

Its ARM UP BIG!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXZw_YGzxCc

and in this video there is an NZ Tank!!!

[Waltzing]

Support for Putin's war plummets in the Urals...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/30/putin-local-election-candidates-not-mentioning-ukraine-war/

[Waltzing]

Invest in Defence.. the WOKE wont!!!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/news/how-to-cash-in-backing-vital-defence-firms-woke-banks/

[Waltzing]

What is worrying the Kiwi's

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132658217/its-a-bit-bleak-government-officials-warn-of-the-future-new-zealand-faces

[GTM 3442]

India looks at logistics and takes some baby steps westward. . .

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3475660/india-takes-a-step-away-from-the-russian-defense-industry/

[Waltzing]

Yep trying to get chip manufacturing going

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/india-woos-us-chip-giants-as-it-aims-to-become-a-semiconductor-giant.html

[kiora]

"According to the i newspaper, the SIM card – placed inside a sealed part that was imported – was capable of transmitting location data and was discovered during a sweep of vehicles"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-threat-already-roads-050000295.html

[SailorRob]

"According to the i newspaper, the SIM card – placed inside a sealed part that was imported – was capable of transmitting location data and was discovered during a sweep of vehicles"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-threat-already-roads-050000295.html

Excellent article thanks.

[GTM 3442]

Does Russia still have plenty left in the tank?


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/08/russia-pulls-thousands-of-soviet-era-military-vehicles-from-major-storage-facility-a82088

[warthog]

Ukraine is doomed. That has been the case for many months, and is more true now than at any time previously. The US electorate will at some point call it a day which is the only thing that their politicians understand. At that point, Ukraine enters an infested swamp stage, a zombie battleground where NATO expenditure can only be moderate and/or obfuscated. Potentially it remains in this state for many years.

[GTM 3442]

Finally! At long last, here come the death rays


https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-official-acquisition-funds-counter-drone-swarm/

[Daytr]

Finally! At long last, here come the death rays


https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-official-acquisition-funds-counter-drone-swarm/

Movies become reality. Angel has fallen etc.
It would be interesting to know how the technology works for low flying drones I.e just above ground level. Would the beams take down everything in its path not just the drones?

[GTM 3442]

Movies become reality. Angel has fallen etc.
It would be interesting to know how the technology works for low flying drones I.e just above ground level. Would the beams take down everything in its path not just the drones?

I think small & low-flying drones come under a different technology partnership umbrella. . .

https://www.epirusinc.com/counter-electronics

https://www.droneshield.com/products

[disc: Droneshield shareholder]

[GTM 3442]

Who’s doing what and doing it here. Th view from Wellington - fifty-odd pages of lines to read between.

https://www.nzsis.govt.nz/assets/NZSIS-Documents/New-Zealands-Security-Threat-Environment-2023.pdf

[Waltzing]

This what Inter - cepting something looks like... can an expert on explosions tell us more please... boy thats more smoke than a gathering of street racers on a saturday night could generate in south auckland ..... or the WAKATOOO.

14709

[moka]

The very knowledgeable Jim Rickards talking about the future of the dollar as a reserve currency.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88pP53lcBwQ
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88pP53lcBwQ)
Jim Rickards: Western Economies About To Slam Into A BRICS Wall?

When you let Saudi Arabia into the BRICS you have two of the three largest oil producers in the world Russia and Saudi Arabia. You have two of the three largest nuclear arsenals in the world Russia and China. Throwing India in and some others you have about 50 percent of global population, 54% of global GDP using purchasing power parity. Well, this is not the old third world these are not basket cases. These are many of the biggest economies in the world that collectively have enormous power natural resources, gold reserves, land mass, population, military.

I want to make two points, one BRICS is 17 years in the making, it's not an overnight thing they've replicated the World Bank, they replicated the IMF now they're coming out with a new currency now.
BRICS in 2002 - Brazil, Russia, India, China, and in 2010 added South Africa.
In 2006 at the United Nations General Assembly in New York annual meeting they formalized BRICS. In 2009 they had a Summer Conference and said we're a group, we're going to work together and they did and over the coming years they multiplied numerous subgroups.

The BRICS meeting coming up August 22nd that's the leaders’ summit. They have about 190 meetings a year. They have working groups on women's rights, sports, the environment, climate change …. it's a very active.

In 2014 they formed what they call the New Development Bank NDB = well it's a world bank.
The following year they created something called the Contingent Reserve - that's the IMF, so basically they copied the World Bank, they copied the IMF. This has been in the works for 17 years. Seven countries have formally applied for membership and then another 13 or 14 are on the waiting list.

The United States has the only bond market big enough to absorb global savings. The U.S treasury market is huge, it is liquid, but above all it has the rule of law that people just trust it. The U.S in response to the war in Ukraine broke the trust, they froze the U.S treasury assets of the Central Bank of Russia. Unprecedented.

47:05 This process is an exact duplication of the process that John Maynard Keynes went through with Bretton Woods and he was ultimately unsuccessful, he was overruled by the United States. He wanted a world money. He was against the idea that somehow only the dollar would be tied to gold and everybody else would be tied to the dollar.

[Waltzing]

world coin is called bit coin and its unstable... world markets unstable as G Soros says...

Jim should join the rolling stones... looks perfect as a guitar player...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbmS3tQJ7Os

[GTM 3442]

Things that go bang in the night. Stalin is doing about 5,000 RPM.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2023/08/17/russia-iran-drone-shahed-alabuga/

[Waltzing]

The biggest property market in the world...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/17/china-property-crash-becomes-more-dangerous/

[Waltzing]

Yes about time people... China has been the BIG E in the room for a while ... those little red bank accounts ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132759852/reserve-bank-governor-adrian-orr-spells-out-big-risks-to-nz-of-china-downturn

[Waltzing]

DW publishA new cold war on the Baltic emerges that go on for decades to come. European military budgets will have to increase as US backing may well soon wane.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVYFG8QOaTc

[moka]

President Franklin Roosevelt’s “four freedoms” became the basis of the United Nations Charter: freedom of speech, freedom of worship, freedom from want, and freedom from fear. The United Nations has lost its way. It has been hijacked by countries and corporations to promote interests other than the aim of maintaining international peace, and it is derided by many.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/world/un-secretary-general-guterres-2023-intl-latam/index.html?mc_cid=bed03ee23d&mc_eid=56542aeee8
(https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/world/un-secretary-general-guterres-2023-intl-latam/index.html?mc_cid=bed03ee23d&mc_eid=56542aeee8)
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of a looming “Great Fracture” in the world, describing existing global governance structures as failing to serve a changing world.
“We are inching ever closer to a Great Fracture in economic and financial systems and trade relations,” he said. “One that threatens a single open Internet, with diverging strategies on technology and artificial intelligence, and potentially clashing security frameworks.”
“We have a level of division among superpowers that has no precedent since the Second World War.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-guterres-donald-trump-clash-united-nations/?mc_cid=bed03ee23d&mc_eid=56542aeee8
(https://www.politico.eu/article/antonio-guterres-donald-trump-clash-united-nations/?mc_cid=bed03ee23d&mc_eid=56542aeee8)
Guterres said. “I fear the possibility of a great fracture: the world splitting in two, with the two largest economies on earth creating two separate and competing worlds, each with their own dominant currency, trade and financial rules, their own internet and artificial intelligence capacities, and their own zero sum geopolitical and military strategies.”
“We see wide-ranging impunity, including for violations of international humanitarian law,” Guterres said in his speech. “New forms of authoritarianism are flourishing. Civic space is narrowing. Environmental activists, human rights defenders, journalists and others are being targeted.

[moka]

Corruption is as American as apple pie

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/9/28/corruption-is-as-american-as-apple-pie
(https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/9/28/corruption-is-as-american-as-apple-pie)
As the old saying goes, power tends to corrupt.
According to US mythology, of course, corruption is entirely the business of other, less civilised nations – particularly enemies of the US – that lack the proper commitment to democracy, the rule of law, and all that nice and noble stuff
On September 22, influential United States Senator Bob Menendez was indicted on corruption charges along with his wife, Nadine. It is the second time Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has faced such charges.

To be sure, Menendez is hardly the only bad apple in this pie. Take Clarence Thomas, the US Supreme Court justice whose corrupt exploits have been thoroughly investigated by the New York-based nonprofit ProPublica.

That anyone can still apply the term “democracy” to the US with a straight face is, meanwhile, a testament to the corruption of language itself. After all, you can’t very well have “rule by the people” in a country where the Supreme Court reverses campaign finance restrictions and political influence is transparently up for sale.

[moka]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/9/whats-the-israel-palestine-conflict-about-a-simple-guide
(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/9/whats-the-israel-palestine-conflict-about-a-simple-guide)
What’s the Israel-Palestine conflict about? A simple guide
It’s killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions. And its future lies in its past. We break it down.

[warthog]

Energy, Russia and China.

[Panda-NZ-]

The media keep saying that either it's hamas or israel controlling gaza as an option.

These are poor students of history (given many journalists are history majors). It might also be a puppet regime supported by Israel.

Though they will need to change the look of their soldiers, ban israel flags and symbols and respect the local traditions to reduce the imagery of foreign occupation.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1A4dMK7S6KE
Capitalism is over and ‘social democracy is finished’ | Yanis Varoufakis

0:00 Amazon is much worse than a monopolist, it's not just a monopolist, it's not a market, it is not a capitalist. It is like think of it as a digital version of a fiefdom in which vassel are laboring for the lord along with the peasants who may even love the lord.

Techno Feudalism: what killed Capitalism is the new book from the bestseller Yanis Varoufakis, the hugely recognizable Greek economist who was his country's Finance Minister in 2015. Yanis thinks there is a new power reshaping the world and reshaping all of our lives. So what is techno feudalism, who is driving it and is it bad for us and bad for democracy? This idea of techno feudalism, the idea that we've sort of reverted to a feudal situation but with tech bosses as the new overlords, it's a fascinating idea tell us about it.

1:06 You know I come from the left, we are the losers of history. We leftists, we used to believe that organized labor would overthrow capital, capitalism or takeover capital.

It never happened, but what has happened instead is a delicious irony. The capital became so triumphant that it mutated like a stupid virus, creates a variant that kills its host. So this is my hypothesis that capital has become so successful and so powerful and so toxic that it has killed capitalism. Now in practice what does this mean and why should people care? It means that whereas profit was the fuel and the lubricant of the socioeconomic system known as capitalism and markets where the mechanism that synthesized all our efforts brought together producers, consumers, organized economic activity, infected our culture, the whole thing.

Now we are moving away from profit, back to rent which is the feudal form of wealth accumulation.

Once upon a time Saatchi and Saatchi the great advertisers would create a poster or TV ad. They would put the idea in your head that you wanted to buy something. Then you went out to a shop and you bought it from the actual shop that gets it from the producer directly. And the producer, the capitalist would make a profit out of it and profit would run the system. Today Alexa sitting on your desk or Siri or whatever some interface with the net. You are training it to train you, to train it to impress upon you how good it is at giving you advice on what to buy. I don't know about you but Spotify really is spot on regarding what I actually like. And once it gets this power over you on the basis that it serves you and it gives you good advice then it can recommend things for you to buy and not only that, but this is the astonishing thing you don't need to go to the shop to buy it.

The same piece of what I call Cloud Capital, that capital that lives in on the cloud sells you the stuff directly through Amazon.com which is the same agglomeration of Cloud Capital as the Alexa that talks to you and interacts with you.

That's not a market anymore, it's not capitalism. What happens is Amazon charges 40% to the capitalist who produces the stuff that you buy. Amazon doesn't produce anything. So it's not just that you do not own stuff that you rent, it is that you have the complete bypassing of markets and the replacement of profit with a new form of cloud rent. And why does this matter? It matters because our society becomes increasingly unstable as a result. Why does it become unstable? Some people would say this is this is great, I get what I get what I want, I don't need to do so much work about it, I don't care whether my money is going to one company. So it goes to Amazon how's that my problem?

Because rent is waste, unlike profit when a producer of bicycles or binocular or cars or whatever gets a profit they have to invest a large part of it in order to maintain competitiveness. So this goes back into the economy.

4:38 If you are a rentier you collect rent in your sleep. Jeff Bezos doesn't need to do anything, capitalists work for him and when he gets this 40% he just puts it away. He uses it to speculate in financial markets, it doesn't go back into investment into anything. For the consumer this sort of thing has feels like it has made life easier, it's made life cheaper. I use it, I can't live without, but it's made life cheaper as well.

So the waste feels intangible but it really does poison our lives because if you think about it when let's say a large chunk of national income is withdrawn from the circular flow of income and is stashed away in some financial circuit and simply feeds this financial game and comes out of people's wages.

Let me give you a very striking example General Motors, Ford Motor Company, Mercedes, Volkswagen all those corporations old style capitalist corporations pay 85% of their revenues as wages salaries and so. On Facebook 1%, Amazon 1.5%, what happens to the rest is withdrawn. The result is that the people out there suffer permanent austerity, not necessarily George Osborne's austerity but austerity in the sense that there isn't enough money going around. That's why we have what David Graeber so scientifically described as buullshiit jobs because there are there's no good investment in jobs.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1A4dMK7S6KE
Capitalism is over and ‘social democracy is finished’ | Yanis Varoufakis

6:10 This is why central banks like the Bank of England cannot stop printing money even when they're trying to quantitatively tighten because there's not enough money going around.
So the state has to keep producing money, feeding even inflation. So if we feel today that there's a polycrisis as Adam Tooze has described it, you have multiple crisis including the climate crisis, that in my estimation has to do with the fact that after 2008 governments tried to save the banks and by printing something like 30 to 35 trillion.

Remember Gordon Brown April 2009 bringing together the G7 Central Banks. They started the printing processes. Now that money was never invested in anything except Cloud Capital by the Bezos in big tech and the other big tech conglomerates. Revolution of course took place in China. In my book I tried to explain the new cold war between the US and China. I ignore issues of Taiwan and so on. That I think this is absolutely irrelevant, just a red herring. It's the clash of the two forms of cloud capital that are taking over the world - the American and the Chinese. And we here in Europe and in Britain are becoming increasing sad irrelevant entities.

7:42 Does this make you nostalgic for capitalism? I'm nostalgic about poetry, about drama, about art. I'm never nostalgic about a dead socioeconomic system so if this was the 1770s, 1800s would we be nostalgic of feudalism which was dying? No, let's move on.
I'm just nostalgic of the idea of the liberal individual and that I'm saying as a leftist because the idea of nice ring fencing between your work life and your leisure that's all gone now.

In an important sense social democracy's bank is finished. I say this without any glee. I'm not a Social Democrat but I do believe that socialism played a very important civilizing role in the 1960s and 70s. Harold Wilson in this country, Willy Brandt in Germany, Bruno Kreisky in Austria, what they did was they played the role of referee they brought into one large room the captains of industry, leaders of the auto industry, of steel making and so on one side and the TU organized labor on the other. And they cut a deal between them whereby a chunk of the surpluses would fund the state NHS and so on and wages and that cannot happen now.

9:45 Well look at what happening in the United States today. Lona M Khan who is the chair of the FTC, the Federal Trade Commission, I think she's very well-meaning and she's a very smart woman and I wish her very well, she's starting a legal battle against Amazon. But I think she's doing it the wrong way because she's treating Amazon in the way that Teddy Roosevelt treated Standard Oil and Rockefeller back in the 1920s, as a monopolist that needs to be broken up. Amazon is much worse than a monopolist it's not just a monopolist, it's not a market, it is not a capitalist. It is like, think of it as a digital version of a fiefdom in which vassel capitalists are laboring for the lord along with the peasants who may even love the lord.

You were the Greek Finance Minister for five and a half months in 2015. Having just been elected to Parliament with your country in deep recession and your party was promising to renegotiate Greece's debt and curtail its austerity measures and ultimately you resigned from your position and then from Parliament having not been able to achieve what you what you'd set out to do.

11:27 Does the kind of do the kind of developments you're talking about in this book make you think differently about that time?
No not at all because that was very brutish and antiquated kind of clash. Greece for 20 years after we joined the Euro Zone we became the typical the archetypal case of vendor financing. So to put it in crude but not misleading terms you know Mercedes-Benz or Volkswagen were giving us the money to buy their cars. That's vendor financing. It was their way of getting rid of surplus products and surplus money and it was the way of the Greek bourgeoise, the ruling class state to pretend that we were growing. And of course this was never going to end well.

12:22 The moment Lehman Brothers went under, Deutsche Bank went under the financing stopped and the bubble burst and then we were bankrupt and then the European Union in its infinite wisdom and our ruling class in its cruelty decided to cover up the bankruptcy by taking all more loans to pretend that we could repay our previous loans, which we couldn't on conditions of austerity, of harsh austerity, unbelievable austerity which was depleting the incomes, the little incomes that couldn't repay the previous loans.
And I stepped in there for one purpose, to cut this process dead, to stop this, to say we need to embrace our bankruptcy. We need to suffer the consequences of our bankruptcy but no more loans, no more credit cards, pretending we're repaying the previous credit cards, and that is the only way of rebooting and restarting and you don't need to be a left winger to believe that.

How do you look back on that period? Do you look back on that period as you did the best you could do? Do you look back that you that you succeeded in or you entirely failed? I entirely failed, entirely failed. But I don't regret for a moment. I have to say that I have a certain amount of pride in the sense that I went in there to do the right thing. I was prevented from doing the right thing by my own prime minister especially on the night of the 5th of July 2015 when the Greek people very heroically gave us a 62% referendum mandate to do the right thing. The Prime Minister succumbed, surrendered and I resigned and I think that there's something to be said about politicians who resign when they realize they cannot do what they promised their electorate they should do.

[moka]

An excellent analysis of the complexities of the Hamas - Israeli war by Ian Bremmer. And it does matter to us because:

19:26 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1166s): Israel's response to Hamas could lead to a broader war in the Middle East – high oil prices.
37:25 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2245s): The priority now is to contain the violence and prevent a war in the West Bank.

40:05 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2405s): There is confusion and disinformation in the media coverage of the attacks, making it difficult to trust and understand the situation.
40:36 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2436s): The speaker discusses the polarization and hate-filled nature of social media during the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, highlighting the need for regulation of social media companies.
40:36 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2436s): Social media promotes a narrative that exaggerates atrocities and polarizes opinions. 41:18 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2478s): There is an increase in hatred and willingness to promote extreme opinions on social media.
41:48 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2508s): The speaker has received death threats from both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine individuals.
43:54 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2634s): Social media companies should be regulated and held responsible for the content on their platforms.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2374s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2374s)

The Israel-Hamas War — and What It Means for the World | Ian Bremmer | TED

1:11 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=71s): Hamas attacked Israel, overran military bases, killed hundreds of Israeli citizens, and took hostages, causing shockwaves of fear and panic in the region and the world.
1:11 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=71s): Gaza has a population of over 2 million Palestinians and is run by Hamas, which does not recognize Israel's right to exist.
2:34 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=154s): The two-state solution for Israeli-Palestinian conflict has lost traction, as some Middle Eastern countries have established diplomatic relations with Israel without resolving the Palestinian question.
4:14 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=254s): Israel is in a strong geopolitical position, surrounded by countries willing to do business with them, while the Palestinians are not benefiting economically from these developments.
5:23 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=323s): Israel has been making news due to its domestic constitutional crisis and judicial reform, rather than the Palestinian issue.
8:04 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=484s): The recent attacks in Israel have caused a major shift in the country's priorities and united its people in responding to the crisis.
8:04 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=484s): The Israeli government's failure in intelligence and defense systems has deeply impacted the Israeli consciousness.
10:09 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=609s): Direct American support may be sought in the rescue mission.
10:09 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=609s): The priority for Israel now is to rescue the hostages held in Gaza.
11:04 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=664s): Israel may consider a military action to remove the Gaza leadership and disarm the militias.
11:51 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=711s): The recent attacks by Hamas on Israel have led to a national emergency and a collective effort to ensure the security of the Israeli people.
11:51 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=711s): The Israeli people are standing together and there is talk of a government of National Emergency to fight this war.
12:42 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=762s): There are likely Hamas operatives inside Israel that need to be found and neutralized. 13:32 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=812s): The level of concern and focus on national security is higher than anything else on the political agenda.
14:27 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=867s): The speaker compares the support for Israel after the recent attacks to the support the United States received after 9/11.
14:59 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=899s): The speaker acknowledges that there were mistakes made by the United States after 9/11 and hopes Israel can avoid making similar mistakes.
17:48 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1068s): The speaker discusses the mistakes made in the US response to 9/11 and warns about the potential dangers of Israel's response to Hamas.
17:48 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1068s): The American response to 9/11 with the war on terror was not successful.
19:46 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1186s): A unity government in Israel may prevent overreactions.
20:22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1222s): The speaker expresses concern about the Israeli defense minister's language and actions towards Gaza.
21:06 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1266s): The Palestinian people will suffer from the ongoing conflict.
23:00 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1380s): Hamas leaders knew the consequences of their actions, but felt increasingly untenable. 23:10 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1390s): Hamas' actions may be a result of losing support in the region and lack of leverage against Israel.
23:51 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1431s): The speaker discusses the motivations behind Hamas' actions and the potential involvement of Iran in the recent attacks.
23:51 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1431s): People in desperate situations often make irrational choices, which may have influenced Hamas' decision to take action.
25:08 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1508s): Hamas aims to radicalize the Israeli population, undermine the Palestinian Authority, and mobilize support from the Arab Street.
28:11 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1691s): The Wall Street Journal article suggesting Iranian involvement in the attacks was lightly sourced and not confirmed by the US.
29:03 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1743s): Iran has a history of supporting and providing military support to Hamas.
29:41 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1781s): The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has escalated with Hamas launching rocket attacks on Israel and Israel retaliating with airstrikes, causing a high number of casualties.
29:41 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1781s): Hamas, a Palestinian militant group, has launched missile and rocket strikes against Israeli military outposts.
30:01 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1801s): Israel has responded with airstrikes against Hamas.
30:11 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1811s): Iran denies involvement in the conflict and has been making diplomatic progress with the US and other countries.
32:15 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1935s): The US has shown support for Israel and warned against expanding the conflict to Iran coz the consequences are $150 crude minimium.
33:15 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=1995s): The suffering and casualties are disproportionately affecting the Palestinians, who lack resources and proper defense capabilities.
33:54 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2034s): Hamas's actions have led to a perception that all Palestinians are equivalent to Hamas, which worsens the situation for the powerless Palestinians.
34:43 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2083s): The Palestinians have historically suffered more deaths and casualties in the conflict. 35:05 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2105s): The Palestinians are likely to suffer the most going forward.
35:27 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2127s): The speaker discusses the impact of the conflict between Israel and Hamas on the Palestinian people and the potential for a two-state solution.
35:27 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2127s): The speaker believes that the biggest damage caused by the conflict will be to the Palestinian people, who will face deprivation.
35:45 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2145s): There may be a movement within Palestine to push for international engagement and a two-state solution if Hamas is removed.
38:04 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2284s): The Israelis are currently focused on immediate short-term decisions to defend the country and secure their borders.
38:14 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2294s): Long-term decisions, such as annexing Gaza, are not being made at this time.
39:34 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2374s): Multilateral diplomacy and influence from other countries will play a role in Israel's decision-making process.
45:06 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2706s): The speaker warns about the potential escalation of the situation in Lebanon involving Hezbollah.
45:48 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2748s): Hezbollah operatives could contribute to further escalation in the conflict.
45:56 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2756s): ! The key points to watch in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are the potential escalation of violence, the fate of the hostages, and the nature of the Israeli government.
45:56 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2756s): The conflict could escalate further and involve Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Iran.
46:25 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2785s): The fate of the hostages is uncertain, as Hamas has control over their release.
47:11 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2831s): The Israeli government's ability to form a unified National Emergency government will determine stability and decision-making.
47:18 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQmBsbt9blg&t=2838s): Longer-term engagement with Palestinians in the West Bank may be considered if a stable government is formed.

[Davexl]

Some truly excellent contributions there Moka - Thank You. Subscribed!

Been a big fan of Yanis Varoufakis, since following the Greek Financial Crisis in 2015, Ian Bremmer is amazing also. Thanks again!

[moka]

After the crisis of the 1970s capital reengineered the economic system to run on a bubble of debt.
In the 1970s capital went on strike and stopped investing. It saw few growth opportunities that offered a reasonable return and reasonable profit. So we had stagflation in the 1970s, a combination of slow growth and rapidly rising prices. There was plenty of capital looking for a home, so debt was encouraged.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/socialism-or-barbarism-a-review-of-stolen-by-grace-blakeley/
(https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/socialism-or-barbarism-a-review-of-stolen-by-grace-blakeley/)
Stolen’s history of class struggle begins in the aftermath of World War II. The labor movement emerged from the early 20th century with sufficient power to bend capital, but not enough to break it. The great class compromise of modern social democracy was born. For a time, the arrangement succeeded, but in the 1970’s crisis hit, laying bare the conflicting class interests that had remained beneath the surface.

In the resulting moment of political plasticity, it was the capitalist class that emerged victorious, overhauling the economy to its own benefit and birthing what we would now call neoliberalism. The new system – though always ruinous for the masses – was stable in the short-term. But another crisis was inevitable, and it came in 2008. Once again, the power of capital was stronger. Rather than enacting systemic change, the problems were band-aided over. Today, wages stagnate, inequality deepens, and climate collapse looms. Liberals have no answer to the questions of the moment. The right-wing reaction defends the existing distribution of power by scapegoating the “other.”

Financialisation, Blakeley convincingly argues, is the unique way in which capital responded to the crisis of the 1970’s, and the order on which its power has been built ever since. By increasing the “role of financial motives, financial markets, financial actors and financial institutions,” capital reengineered the economic system to run on a bubble of debt. Restraints on banking, lending, and capital mobility were lifted. Corporate structures were reoriented from production to the service of shareholders. And middle-class consumers were transformed into mini-capitalists through such Thatcherite reforms as the privatization of pensions and the incentivization of home ownership.

Under the new finance-led order, the capitalist class squeezed out ever-increasing profits without an equivalent increase in productivity. It managed to do so without fomenting revolution because debt-fuelled growth in asset prices appeased the mini-capitalists, and the true costs of the system were postponed. Until 2008.

Overlapping with the global class struggle between capital and labor is an imperial struggle between North and South. It is the North’s exploitation of the South – and the share of extracted value that has made its way to the Northern working class through labor concessions, a tempered welfare state, and low consumer prices – that keeps Northern labor quiescent. To the extent that this is the case, Blakeley’s position that capital is out of room to maneuver and an open confrontation is imminent may require reassessment; capital may instead restabilize its relationship with Northern labor by deepening its exploitation of Southern.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h1XD7fQSfg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h1XD7fQSfg)

Conversation with Fareed Zakaria — The Conflict in Israel and the State of Foreign Affairs. The Prof G Show

1:07 In a historical backdrop really the most important thing that has happened over the last two decades in the Middle East is the withdrawal of American power. In a fairly dramatic sense the United States had been the dominating outside force in the Middle East for decades. It used to be the Soviet Union and the United States. Both had their client states then in an amazing move of diplomatic jiu-jitsu after the 1973 war Kissinger gets Egypt to flip. It goes from being pro-Soviet to pro-American and that begins the end of the Soviet era and or the bipolar era and it becomes a period of American domination. So the United States had better relations if you think about it in 1975 with every country in the Middle East than they had with each other.

2:06 So United States had better relations with the Shah of Iran, with Egypt, with Syria, and of course it had very close relations with Israel. Then that starts to change but the fundamental thing that happens after the war in Iraq is that the United States realizes it is over invested in the Middle East, it just does not have the capacity.

It's a very turbulent unstable region and the only way seemingly to stabilize it is military power, military force and Obama begins this - it was called a pivot to Asia, but really was a pivot away from the Middle East and he was continuing in a way something that Bush had begun in the second term chastened by the Iraq adventure. Bush had been cutting back and so in that context what's been happening is you've been creating a kind of post American Middle East.

And in that Middle East everyone is jockeying for advantage and everyone is trying to figure out how do I protect my equities, so the Turks have become much more active, the Saudis and the Iranians - that's the principal dynamic. Each one is trying to become the top dog, Israel has quietly become the essentially economic superpower, technological superpower of the region, but increasingly military. And the Israelis have been trying to do this extraordinary move which is to completely marginalize the Palestinians by making peace with the Arabs who want to make peace with Israel because they fear a common enemy Iran.

So that's the backdrop of what's happening. Two important things in the shorter term - one is Netanyahu really pushing forward to try to make a deal with Saudi Arabia which would really marginalize the Palestinians because Saudi Arabia is the most important Islamic State, it's the richest, it's the one with the two great mosques, the King of Saudi Arabia is called the custodian of the two great mosques.

And the second piece is that he has a very extreme right-wing Coalition. He has people in his Coalition who basically don't believe there should ever be any kind of Palestinian State at all. They want a greater Israel, as they call it from the Jordan River to the sea and that means no West Bank, no Gaza. I don't know what they plan to do with the 5 million Palestinians on those lands but the Netanyahu government has been very, very hardline mostly in the West Bank - shootings, arrests, killings, the thousands of Palestinian prisoners.

4:46 So you had gotten to the point where Israeli Palestinian relations were terrible. The Palestinians are looking and seeing they're being marginalized, they're going to be bypassed. This big deal and all that comes together, and the Hamas must have decided we are going to burn the house down. And in doing this what are they hoping they'll trigger a massive Israeli reaction which is ongoing. That reaction will then make the Arab world sympathize with the Palestinians who are getting pummeled. In that context it'll be very hard for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel and that serves their objectives of a highlighting the Palestinian cause, putting Israel on the defensive, getting rid of the Saudi normalization.

6:28 I think that the government in Israel had focused almost single-mindedly on three issues, overturning judicial independence or undermining judicial independence - that was a big constitutional push, normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and essentially creating de facto annexations on the ground in the West Bank to make a Palestinian state there more and more unviable. They might have not been paying a lot of attention to Gaza. In fact we have some interesting Israeli reporting that says that there were army people who were telling the Netanyahu government look at what's going on in Gaza because some of what the Hamas was doing is they were openly practicing manoeuvres and the Netanyahu government thought that they were trying to fool them and they didn't take it very seriously.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h1XD7fQSfg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h1XD7fQSfg)

Conversation with Fareed Zakaria — The Conflict in Israel and the State of Foreign Affairs. The Prof G Show

8:38 A few weeks ago a Saudi official explained the situation to me and it was all off the record but I think this is the way the Saudis are thinking about this. Look we are willing to do this and we want to do this because it serves both our interests, but we have to be careful with our domestic population particularly because the Crown Prince has been doing a lot of stuff that has been enraging the religious fundamentalists in his country. He's shut down the religious police, he's allowed movie theaters, restaurants, desegregated every facility where women can be, women can now drive, women can leave the country without checking with their male guardians. All that stuff has pissed off the mullahs. He said we can't also piss them off by completely abandoning the Palestinians, so we do need some real concessions on the Palestinian front.

So he was telling me that there's a feeling particularly in America, in Washington that the Saudis are completely unconcerned, they're happy to sell the Palestinians down the river, they just want to make a deal with Israel. Now I think there's some truth to that, that is that they are as frustrated with the Palestinian leadership as anyone who has ever dealt with the Palestinian leadership would be, they're feckless, corrupt, incompetent but they know that they've got this issue.

They're fairly careful about how much they push forward, for example they've been opening up all this tourism, and they’re building all these hotels, they still don't allow you to drink alcohol and the point is it's going to happen, but you push one of these things every six months, you don't push them all together and you try to work with those people.
The Saudis are going to be very careful but I think their national interests are driving them together. So as long as this doesn't completely explode and it might, you could you could see this getting back on track maybe in a year.

10:46 So if this is a war of perception, as Lincoln said you can't win a war without public support. I believe that empathy towards the Palestinian cause across America and the West had somewhat increased steadily over the last 20 years and that the perception was negative or increasingly less positive towards Israel. And I feel like the actions of the last three or four days have totally reversed that.

In the Arab world there was some initial shock at just the brutality. But now what is happening is there is the focus on every building that's being bombed in Gaza, every family that's being dispossessed, the women and children in the rubble and my guess is you're going to end up with a very disproportionate body count at the end of all this because right now you have 900 Israelis killed and several hundred Palestinians but by the time the Israelis are done with this just because of this massive superior firepower of the Israelis you're going to see that Gaza will be devastated and that will probably evoke a certain amount of sympathy.

13:39 It partly depends on what the Israelis do. I hope the Israelis think about that issue because they've bombed Gaza a lot over the last 20 years. It's not clear to me that that strategy works. I would think more about creating a buffer zone, essentially annexing a kilometer or so of land so that you make the border impregnable. But there is this desire for understandable for revenge almost and I would hope that that is kept in check and there's a more strategic idea of what is the purpose of this operation.

14:20 We’ve spent a lot of time talking about young men on the show and we've said consistently that the most dangerous person in the world is a young, broke and alone man and I see this imagery. And there's too many of these young men that have quite frankly nothing to lose.

I don't care if it's migrants flooding the US border, it all seems to reverse engineer to an absence of opportunity across young people which and I need to say this in no way excuses what has happened.

There's 5 million people we got to deal with. There are 2.2 million people in Gaza. It's the most densely populate part of the world, 50% of those are children, youth unemployment in Gaza is over 60% by some accounts 70%, 75% of the people in Gaza lack access to drinking water, 60% live below the poverty line so it's a pretty miserable place. The Secretary General of the UN visited it and he described it last year as hell on earth.

How much worse can you make Gaza and again it's important now I'm talking about the people of Gaza, that Hamas is a terrible tyrannical terrorist organization so it's even worse for them to the extent they have any governance, it's governance through this very tyrannical radical and corrupt organization Hamas.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h1XD7fQSfg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h1XD7fQSfg)
Conversation with Fareed Zakaria — The Conflict in Israel and the State of Foreign Affairs. The Prof G Show

16:45 What these people want more than anything else as far as I can tell is political rights and dignity and the Israelis have been very willing to give them a lot of other stuff, economic rights, development aid. The world has been willing to give them that, but it's almost as we're trying to get around the central problem which is what they want is a state. And the Israelis to be fair have tried to go down that path as well, not so much this government but Ehud Barack you remember 2000 Bill Clinton came all tantalizingly close to a Palestinian state. They had agreed on all the parameters both sides and then Yasser Arafat pulls out the last minute. Another Israeli Prime Minister offered a version of that deal again to Abbas the current Palestinian Authority leader. He turned it down. I have a lot of sympathy for the Palestinians. I do not have a lot of sympathy for the Palestinian leadership.

The way I would put it is fundamentally there was a struggle here. The Israelis have won. They have all the territory. They're a rich powerful strong country.
When you're in a war that you're losing the longer you wait the worse the deal you get.
The deal they were offered in 1948, the partition was half of that British mandated land, they said no.
Then the 67 war happens Israeli take more. Now the settlement activity is taking place. The deal that that Clinton offered is way better than anything they could dream of getting today because in a war when you're losing the longer you wait the worse the deal gets and the leadership doesn't want to own up to its people. Leadership has a lot to put to answer for in my view.

19:41 So I think in the region what you see is this the reality of a post American Middle East. It's very messy, everyone is trying to jockey for advantage. You're going to see more violence, you're going to see more groups that try to take advantage of the fact that there is this level of instability. I think with the Iranians the interesting question is how much do they want, that's the crucial question here because the other ones the Turks are trying to establish themselves a bit in Syria. The Israelis of course have largely been trying to do it through technology and that kind of thing and build up a big deterrent force. The Saudis are trying to do it with money. The Iranians have tended to try to extend their influence politically and militarily through militias in Lebanon, in Yemen, in Syria, in Iraq and so will the Iranians really try to play a game here.
The Iranians are a malicious force don't get me wrong but they seem to be searching for a way out partly because they have these crippling sanctions on them.

What's the evidence of this? The biggest evidence of this is the Saudi - Iranian normalization, that was a big big deal. It happened last year, the Chinese brokered it. It seems to me they would jeopardize all that if they were to really take advantage of this, but that's the part I worry the most about.

And then there's the broader issue which is the central challenge in international relations we face. Iit is a version of what's going on in the Middle East, which is can we maintain a rules-based international order that encourages open trade, open commerce, open communication, open information platforms, without the great liberal hegemony superpower that sustained built and paid for the international system as it exists today - the United States. Because the US is not going to be able to play that role that it's played in the past, partly because it has grown weary, partly because others have risen and will not accept US hegemony, and states like Russia, Iran, groups like Hamas, Hezbollah are basically trying in various ways undermine the rules based order, undermine the international system, burn the house down.

Will they win or will the United States and Europe and Japan and Singapore and Saudi Arabia, all these countries that want order and stability and openness will they prevail that's the big dynamic? And that's why what happens in the Middle East does have a larger global significance.

22:37 The biggest problem in Ukraine is the West is getting fatigued. They won't admit it but they are getting fatigued. You're seeing signs of it in the Republican Party very strongly, you're seeing some signs in Europe as well, the Slovakia election. They elected basically a pro Russian leader, the Poles these populist nationalists, they're pretty good on Ukraine but they've been quarreling with Ukraine for the last two or three months about Ukrainian aid as these refugees -remember there's six - seven million Ukrainian refugees living in Europe. I think that's the critical thing to look at. The Ukrainians are not going to give up. This is their land. This is existential for them. The question is will they run out of money and weapons and that's all on the West.

The Russian strategy right now is pretty clear. They're waiting for the 2024 election. They think there's a 50% chance Donald Trump will win. Trump will sell the Ukrainians down the river, may cut a deal with Putin.

25:02 As we pull back the lens on the Middle East I increasingly believe that the catastrophic geopolitical decision of the last 50 years will be seen as our invasion of Iraq. Our weariness, the resources expended. We're like someone who's gotten their eyebrows burnt and we just don't want to get near any hot surface any longer in the Middle East. Going into Afghanistan absolutely justification, but going into Iraq will be seen as probably the greatest geopolitical mistake in US history of the last 50 years.
It is bigger than Vietnam but it certainly was a massive mistake and it represents two things one was this was the kind of peak American hubris. This was an American dominated world, this was the post cold war world. We destroyed the world like a colossus and then 9/11 happens and we are like a wounded giant, and we start lashing out and we lash out and we totally militarize the conflict.

I wrote a piece for Newsweek two weeks after 9/11 called why they hate us and was trying to explain the root of this Islamic rage. And the main point I was trying to get across is the main thing we have to understand is this is a kind of ideological civilizational political struggle, don't turn it into a military struggle because that's what they want.

27:05 I think we massively misread how we should we should handle it (Afghanistan.) We should have gone in there got rid of the Taliban and then left. When you try to bring order in a country what we always forget is we are the foreigners and you can have all the best intentions in the world but it's the easiest thing in the world to arouse nationalist opposition against an occupying foreigner.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h1XD7fQSfg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h1XD7fQSfg)
Conversation with Fareed Zakaria — The Conflict in Israel and the State of Foreign Affairs. The Prof G Show

27:40 MBS has a poor track record on human rights, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. And the thesis is that MBS is actually an enormous asset or an enormous positive for the West, that the pivot from a hot war in Yemen and a cold war in Iran, sort of the pivot loosely speaking from terrorism to capitalism, that we could have not written a better script for pro West interests.

28:53 MBS has been the principal modernizing force in the Gulf on a scale we have never seen before. Saudi Arabia has modernized more in the last two to three years than it did in previous 50, even if you think about human rights. He's allowed women to drive, he's allowed them most importantly to be in unsegregated areas in education, in workplace that means Saudi female participation in Saudi Arabia has been going up steadily much, much faster than people realize. You getting to the point where those distinctions are becoming much less important. He's opened up the economy to outside forces. He's opened it up to entertainment, he's opened it up to tourism, all those are freedoms, people have the freedom now to do lots of different things that they were not able to.

They don't have political freedom yet. You can't pretend they do, but point two as you say he could be a huge Western asset because look at how he's modernizing his country. Is it along Chinese lines no, it's along Western lines. The deal that the Biden people have been trying to do with the Saudis, with Israel is good for Saudi Arabia, good for America, good for Israel and understand the parts America gets - Saudis would agree to consult with America on the price of oil, Saudis would agree no Chinese military facilities in their country, and basically no Chinese high-end technology - no Huawei, they've agreed that they would continue to price oil in dollars, no question of pricing it in Yuan.

Those are real important elements of American power. Saudi Arabia is still the swing state for the most important energy resource in the world and will be the most important energy resource in the world for the next 20 years.

People don't focus on enough right now which is the most powerful man in the world is going to be elected by probably 100,000 people in four states, in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. It's not even going to be in those States because the cities are going to go blue, the rural areas are going to go red and it's going to be those exurban counties and you're talking maybe 50,000 people are going to determine the fate of the way the war in Ukraine goes, the future of the International System.

32:18 The part that worries me the most is the Republican party is returning to its isolationist roots. This is something people don't realize. This is a big deal for ever since World War II the Republican Party had been taken out of that. They opposed US entry into World War II, they opposed US support for Britain and France all that stuff. It was the most bitter debate in some ways of the 20th century in American politics. They are going back to that, listen to Josh Hawley, listen to Vivek Ramaswamy, listen to Trump and you see the Republican party is basically is saying pox on everybody's house, we get out of the world.

If you want to see serious disorder that's where I think it begins, if we really see a total withdrawal of America from the world.

What's stunning about where we are is the mismatch between economics and politics. So if you look at where we are economically, if you were to ask yourself at any previous point in history who dominates the world of technology and the industries of the future. In the 1970s you'd be looking at a lot of German companies, Japanese companies, Dutch companies like Phillips, the hot technologies like NEC, Toyota, computer, consumer electronics all that.

Today it's America, America, America, you know it's just crazy how dominant we are, our banks are absolutely dominant. There's no global banks left and they're just American Banks, the Europeans are in tatters, the Chinese can't open up their system, the Japanese banks have been declining for 25 years. You look at demographics. We're the only rich country that is going to be demographically vibrant because we take in a million legal immigrants a year. That's more than the entire industrialized world put together. We're energy sufficient, independent. We are the now the largest producer of liquid hydrocarbons in the world. People don't think about that because we consume most of it but we produce more liquid hydrocarbons than Saudi Arabia or Russia.

How do we have this totally screwed up politics? We can't pass a budget, you can't have a speaker, you can't get any kind of rational immigration reform which is the single thing that could boost the American economy right now.

If Biden decides he's going to run it's difficult to dislodge him. He's been a successful president. He's done more in terms of legislation than any president, any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson. He's got good judgment on Ukraine, on things like the Saudi deal, his foreign policy has been smart, and yet the problem I think we all have at the back of our mind is he is going to be 82 years old when he starts his second term.

CNN is going through a kind of classic innovators dilemma problem, which is that it had an amazing business model. Most people don't understand how profitable the cable carriage business was and CNN's margins on the cable carriage fees were close to 50% and was getting I'm guessing 1.5 billion dollar of cable carriage. So it made sense for them to be milking that for as much as they can. But that world is going away. The revenue of the future is going to be in some form in streaming and digital and can they make that transition.

[kiora]

"The New Economic Security State
How De-risking Will Remake Geopolitics"
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/economic-security-state-farrell-newman?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=special_send&utm_campaign=new_economic_state_prospects_a&utm_content=20231019&utm_term=promo-email-prospects

[moka]

Bertrand Russell’s Last Message: Israel-Palestine War.

Bertrand Russell was a British mathematician, philosopher, logician, and public intellectual. He was also an advocate for reason and humanism and a dedicated defender of freedom of speech and freedom of thought.

https://abdelmoumenchouichi.medium.com/bertrand-russells-last-message-israel-palestine-war-694eb7a7a99e
(https://abdelmoumenchouichi.medium.com/bertrand-russells-last-message-israel-palestine-war-694eb7a7a99e)
This statement on the Middle East was dated 31st January 1970, and was read on 3rd February, the day after Bertrand Russell’s death, to an International Conference of Parliamentarians meeting in Cairo.

The latest phase of the undeclared war in the Middle East is based upon a profound miscalculation. The bombing raids deep into Egyptian territory will not persuade the civilian population to surrender but will stiffen their resolve to resist. This is the lesson of all aerial bombardment. The Vietnamese who have endured years of American heavy bombing have responded not by capitulation but by shooting down more enemy aircraft. In 1940 my own fellow countrymen resisted Hitler’s bombing raids with unprecedented unity and determination. For this reason, the present Israeli attacks will fail in their essential purpose, but at the same time they must be condemned vigorously throughout the world. The development of the crisis in the Middle East is both dangerous and instructive. For over 20 years Israel has expanded by force of arms.

After every stage in this expansion Israel has appealed to “reason” and has suggested “negotiations”. This is the traditional role of the imperial power because it wishes to consolidate with the least difficulty what it has already taken by violence. Every new conquest becomes the new basis of the proposed negotiation from strength, which ignores the injustice of the previous aggression.

The aggression committed by Israel must be condemned, not only because no state has the right to annexe foreign territory, but because every expansion is an experiment to discover how much more aggression the world will tolerate. The refugees who surround Palestine in their hundreds of thousands were described recently by the Washington journalist I.F. Stone as “the moral millstone around the neck of world Jewry.” Many of the refugees are now well into the third decade of their precarious existence in temporary settlements.

The tragedy of the people of Palestine is that their country was “given” by a foreign Power to another people for the creation of a new State. The result was that many hundreds of thousands of innocent people were made permanently homeless. With every new conflict their number have increased. How much longer is the world willing to endure this spectacle of wanton cruelty? It is abundantly clear that the refugees have every right to the homeland from which they were driven, and the denial of this right is at the heart of the continuing conflict. No people anywhere in the world would accept being expelled in masse from their own country; how can anyone require the people of Palestine to accept a punishment which nobody else would tolerate? A permanent just settlement of the refugees in their homeland is an essential ingredient of any genuine settlement in the Middle East.

We are frequently told that we must sympathize with Israel because of the suffering of the Jews in Europe at the hands of the Nazis. I see in this suggestion no reason to perpetuate any suffering. What Israel is doing today cannot be condoned, and to invoke the horrors of the past to justify those of the present is gross hypocrisy. Not only does Israel condemn a vast number of refugees to misery, not only are many Arabs under occupation condemned to military rule; but also Israel condemns the Arab nations only recently emerging from colonial status, to continued impoverishment as military demands take precedence over national development.

All who want to see an end to bloodshed in the Middle East must ensure that any settlement does not contain the seeds of future conflict. Justice requires that the first step towards a settlement must be an Israeli withdrawal from all the territories occupied in June 1967. A new world campaign is needed to help bring justice to the long–suffering people of the Middle East.

I invite you all to read the letter with thoughtful consideration.

[Davexl]

Kissinger - the good & the bad...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/henry-kissinger-death-complicated-legacy-draws-admiration-and-scorn-from-across-the-globe/H42CKVDV75CAXAQS65ADKLX5MU/

Celebrated and reviled: The complicated legacy of Henry Kissinger (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/henry-kissinger-is-dead-at-100-shaped-the-united-states-cold-war-history/HFPSWRFO7BASZJAY5AYVCURLT4/#)

[warthog]

Bertrand Russell’s Last Message: Israel-Palestine War.

Bertrand Russell was a British mathematician, philosopher, logician, and public intellectual. He was also an advocate for reason and humanism and a dedicated defender of freedom of speech and freedom of thought.

https://abdelmoumenchouichi.medium.com/bertrand-russells-last-message-israel-palestine-war-694eb7a7a99e
(https://abdelmoumenchouichi.medium.com/bertrand-russells-last-message-israel-palestine-war-694eb7a7a99e)
This statement on the Middle East was dated 31st January 1970, and was read on 3rd February, the day after Bertrand Russell’s death, to an International Conference of Parliamentarians meeting in Cairo.

The latest phase of the undeclared war in the Middle East is based upon a profound miscalculation. The bombing raids deep into Egyptian territory will not persuade the civilian population to surrender but will stiffen their resolve to resist. This is the lesson of all aerial bombardment. The Vietnamese who have endured years of American heavy bombing have responded not by capitulation but by shooting down more enemy aircraft. In 1940 my own fellow countrymen resisted Hitler’s bombing raids with unprecedented unity and determination. For this reason, the present Israeli attacks will fail in their essential purpose, but at the same time they must be condemned vigorously throughout the world. The development of the crisis in the Middle East is both dangerous and instructive. For over 20 years Israel has expanded by force of arms.

After every stage in this expansion Israel has appealed to “reason” and has suggested “negotiations”. This is the traditional role of the imperial power because it wishes to consolidate with the least difficulty what it has already taken by violence. Every new conquest becomes the new basis of the proposed negotiation from strength, which ignores the injustice of the previous aggression.

The aggression committed by Israel must be condemned, not only because no state has the right to annexe foreign territory, but because every expansion is an experiment to discover how much more aggression the world will tolerate. The refugees who surround Palestine in their hundreds of thousands were described recently by the Washington journalist I.F. Stone as “the moral millstone around the neck of world Jewry.” Many of the refugees are now well into the third decade of their precarious existence in temporary settlements.

The tragedy of the people of Palestine is that their country was “given” by a foreign Power to another people for the creation of a new State. The result was that many hundreds of thousands of innocent people were made permanently homeless. With every new conflict their number have increased. How much longer is the world willing to endure this spectacle of wanton cruelty? It is abundantly clear that the refugees have every right to the homeland from which they were driven, and the denial of this right is at the heart of the continuing conflict. No people anywhere in the world would accept being expelled in masse from their own country; how can anyone require the people of Palestine to accept a punishment which nobody else would tolerate? A permanent just settlement of the refugees in their homeland is an essential ingredient of any genuine settlement in the Middle East.

We are frequently told that we must sympathize with Israel because of the suffering of the Jews in Europe at the hands of the Nazis. I see in this suggestion no reason to perpetuate any suffering. What Israel is doing today cannot be condoned, and to invoke the horrors of the past to justify those of the present is gross hypocrisy. Not only does Israel condemn a vast number of refugees to misery, not only are many Arabs under occupation condemned to military rule; but also Israel condemns the Arab nations only recently emerging from colonial status, to continued impoverishment as military demands take precedence over national development.

All who want to see an end to bloodshed in the Middle East must ensure that any settlement does not contain the seeds of future conflict. Justice requires that the first step towards a settlement must be an Israeli withdrawal from all the territories occupied in June 1967. A new world campaign is needed to help bring justice to the long–suffering people of the Middle East.

I invite you all to read the letter with thoughtful consideration.

Russell, as many like him, was a deeply principled and moral gentleman. Rare qualities. Thanks for posting.

[warthog]

Kissinger - the good & the bad...

Celebrated and reviled: The complicated legacy of Henry Kissinger (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/henry-kissinger-is-dead-at-100-shaped-the-united-states-cold-war-history/HFPSWRFO7BASZJAY5AYVCURLT4/#)

Celebrated by warmongers and the misinformed, reviled by anyone with their eyes open.

[Davexl]

Thought this might be interesting. Note the urgency.

Australia will start making long-range missiles from next year

https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/australia-will-start-making-long-range-missiles-from-next-year-c-13237224

[Valuegrowth]

Investors have not paid attention to geo political risks. It's highly risky to invest in foreign markets. Time to invest in basic things.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTHmK2tS-zA

[Davexl]

Demonstrating just how twisted the Middle East situ is with Iran (in Iraq's influence) for Biden...
Iraq and Iran were complicit in the Tower 22 attack
https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/iraq-and-iran-were-complicit-in-the-tower-22-attack/