Geo Political Risk

[Davexl]

34m ago03.51

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/22/russia-ukraine-war-satellite-images-appear-to-show-mass-graves-near-mariupol-zelenskiy-says-ukraine-needs-7bn-a-month-in-aid-live?page=with:block-626365778f088371a5f40989#block-626365778f088371a5f40989)Russia is seeking to “starve out the remaining defenders and civilians in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant and are unlikely to allow trapped civilians to leave,” the Institute for the Study of War has written in its latest analysis of the conflict (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-22).
Shelling of the facility, where hundreds of civilians are thought to be holed up with the city’s last remaining Ukrainian fighters, has continued, it cited Ukrainian authorities as saying, adding that Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) had refused requests to establish humanitarian corridors allowing civilians to leave.

Russian and DNR [Donetsk People’s Republic] forces continued to consolidate their control of key buildings in Mariupol and are likely setting conditions to set up an occupation government. Several videos circulated on social media of unspecified Russian forces departing Mariupol, but ISW cannot confirm at this time which Russian forces have departed the city or their likely destination.

Referring to comments by a senior Russian commander on Friday that establishing control of southern Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) would give it access to the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, the US-based think tank said it did not “read this as a statement of intent to conduct a major offensive operation toward Moldova”

An offensive toward Moldova would likely have been phrased around securing a “land corridor” [сухопутный коридор] to Moldova, much like the Russian land corridor to Crimea. Even if Russian forces did seek to resume major offensive operations toward Mykolaiv and on to Odesa, they are highly unlikely to have the capability to do so.


Rustam Minnekayev, acting commander of the central military district, had said that “Russian control of southern Ukraine provides Russia a future capability to conduct an offensive toward Transnistria, rather than announcing an imminent Russian offensive toward Moldova,” it noted.
Other key takeaways from the day were:Ongoing purges of Russian general officers for failures in Ukraine will likely further degrade Russian command and control.



Russian forces conducted localized attacks and reconnoitered Ukrainian positions south of Izyum and did not make any advances.
Russian forces secured minor gains in continuing daily attacks on the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.
The Kremlin is setting conditions to create proxy republics in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts to cement Russian control over these regions and conscript Ukrainian manpower.

Full Report:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-22
Maps:
https://twitter.com/Mason_R_Clark/status/1517624198516125696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1517624198516125696%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld% 2Flive%2F2022%2Fapr%2F22%2Frussia-ukraine-war-satellite-images-appear-to-show-mass-graves-near-mariupol-zelenskiy-says-ukraine-needs-7bn-a-month-in-aid-live%3Fpage%3Dwith%3Ablock-626338568f088371a5f408d9block-626338568f088371a5f408d9

[Davexl]

1h ago03.27

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/22/russia-ukraine-war-satellite-images-appear-to-show-mass-graves-near-mariupol-zelenskiy-says-ukraine-needs-7bn-a-month-in-aid-live?page=with:block-626360578f084c98f77b2b71#block-626360578f084c98f77b2b71)The Associated Press has written a moving piece about the families of the sailors who went missing after the sinking of the Moskva warship last week (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/14/russia-moskva-cruiser-sunk-stormy-seas-defense-ministry):
It took the Russian military over a week to acknowledge that one serviceman died and two dozen others were missing after one of its flagship cruisers sank in the Black Sea, reportedly the result of a Ukrainian missiles strike.

The acknowledgment happened after families started searching desperately for their sons who, they said, served on the ship and did not come home, and relatives are posing sharp questions about Russia’s initial statement that the entire crew was evacuated.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Friday in a terse announcement that one crew member died and 27 were left missing after a fire damaged the flagship Moskva cruiser last week, while 396 others were evacuated. The ministry did not offer any explanation for its earlier claims that the full crew got off the vessel before it sank.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/6f188a9fd24e1f4ea70005282c7fdfa12ffee4f6/0_0_4400_2640/master/4400.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
The Moskva after it was hit by Ukrainian missiles last week. Photograph: REX/ShutterstockThe loss of the Moskva, one of three missile cruisers of its kind in Russia’s fleet, was shrouded in mystery from the moment it was first reported early on April 14. Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) said it hit the ship with missiles. The Russian Defense Ministry would not acknowledge an attack, saying only that a fire broke out on the vessel after ammunition detonated, causing serious damage.

Moscow even insisted that the ship remained afloat and was being towed to a port, only to admit hours later that it sank after all — in a storm. No images of the ship, or of the supposed rescue operation, were made available.

Only several days later, the Russian military released a short and mostly silent video showing rows of sailors, supposedly from the Moskva, reporting to their command in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. The footage offered little clarity on how many sailors were actually evacuated to safety.

Soon came the questions. An emotional social media post by Dmitry Shkrebets alleging that his son, a conscript who served as a cook on Moskva, was missing, quickly went viral.

The military “said the entire crew was evacuated. It’s a lie! A blatant and cynical lie!” Shkrebets, a resident of Crimea, wrote on VK, a popular Russian social media platform, on April 17, three days after the ship went down.
“My son, a conscript, as the very commanders of the Moskva cruiser told me, is not listed among the wounded and the dead and is added to the list of those missing ... Guys, missing in the open sea?!”

Similar posts quickly followed from other parts of Russia. The Associated Press found social media posts looking for at least 13 other young men who reportedly served on the Moskva whose families could not find them.
One woman spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity, as she feared for her son’s safety. She said her son was a conscript and had been aboard the Moskva for several months before telling her in early February that the ship was about to depart for drills. She lost touch with him for several weeks after that.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/b4a80cb658e70c0e932a9bf3ab037ce0cede1fce/23_43_2235_1341/master/2235.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
A still image taken from a handout video made available by the Russian Defence Ministry showing the crew of the Moskva days after it was hit by Ukrainian missiles. Photograph: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service/EPAThe news about Russia invading Ukraine worried her, she said, and she started reading the news online and on social media every day. The last time they spoke on the phone was in mid-March. He was on the ship but did not say where it was.
She didn’t start looking for him until a day after she learned about trouble aboard the Moskva, because official statements from the Defense Ministry said the crew was evacuated. But no one called or messaged her about her son’s whereabouts, and she started to get agitated.

Calls to various military officials and hotlines got her nowhere at first, but she persisted. A call she made on the way to a grocery store brought bleak news — that her son was listed as missing and that there was little chance he survived in the cold water.

“I said ‘But you said you rescued everyone,’ and he said ‘I only have the lists’. I screamed ‘What are you doing?!’” she told the AP. “I got hysterical, right at the bus stop (where I was standing), I felt like the ground was giving way under my feet. I started shaking.”

The Kremlin statements about the ship’s loss and the crew’s fate follow a historical pattern in which Russia has often met bad news with silence, denials or undercounts about casualties. Previous examples include the 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the sinking of the nuclear-powered submarine Kursk in the Barents Sea in 2000 and the 1994-1996 Chechen war.

The families’ accounts could not be independently verified. But they went largely uncontested by Russian authorities.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment and redirected the question to the Defense Ministry when asked by the AP during one of his daily conference calls with reporters about families challenging the official statements about sailors being evacuated.

The Defense Ministry did not comment on the outcry either — until Friday, when it finally revealed that 27 crew members were missing and one was confirmed dead. The ministry still did not acknowledge an attack on the ship, however.

Political analyst Abbas Gallyamov says the sinking of the Moskva is a major political blow for president Vladimir Putin, not so much because of the outcry from families, but because it hurts Putin’s image of military might.

“This trait, might, is under attack now because we’re now talking about the devastation of the fleet,” Gallyamov said. But the families’ woes underscores “that one shouldn’t trust the Russian authorities.”

In the meantime, some families with missing sons plan to continue seeking the truth.
“Now we will turn to figuring out for how long one can go missing’ in the open sea,” Shkrebets posted Friday.

[Davexl]

Russia has been hiding evidence of its “barbaric” war crimes in Mariupol by burying the bodies of civilians killed by shelling in a new mass grave that could hold as many as 9,000 dead, local officials said. It comes after a US satellite imaging company released photos that appeared to match the site. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/21/russian-forces-accused-of-secret-burials-of-civilians-in-mariupol)

[Davexl]

3m ago04.51
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/22/russia-ukraine-war-satellite-images-appear-to-show-mass-graves-near-mariupol-zelenskiy-says-ukraine-needs-7bn-a-month-in-aid-live?page=with:block-626374998f08c1667906d3f6#block-626374998f08c1667906d3f6)
Canada has delivered a “number of M777 howitzers and associated ammunition” to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) in conjunction with the US, defence minister Anita Anand has said.
“We have also provided Ukraine with additional Carl Gustaf ammunition, and we will provide armoured vehicles and other support,” she said in a tweet.

https://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1517593631917547529?s=20&t=vEwfwFfdHZbG1tvoWAffGQ

In a statement, Canada’s Ministry of Defence said (https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2022/04/canada-announces-artillery-and-other-additional-military-aid-for-ukraine.html) it was “also in the process of finalizing contracts for a number of commercial pattern armoured vehicles, which will be sent to Ukraine as soon as possible, and a service contract for the maintenance and repair of specialized drone cameras that Canada has already supplied to Ukraine.”
Broadcaster CBC reported (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-m777-howitzer-russia-heavy-artillery-1.6427762) that the howitzers – described by the Ministry of Defence as “lighter and smaller, yet more powerful than any gun of its kind” and capable of accurately hitting targets 30km away – numbered four and were from the 37 that Canada purchased during the Afghan war.

[Davexl]

Thanks to our sickeningly useless local media, either all on bloody holiday, or news embargoed within New Zealand by government - thought it was timely to display this:

US warns Solomon Islands over China pact; will fast track new embassy

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-warns-solomon-islands-over-china-pact-will-fast-track-new-embassy-20220423-p5afjn.html
(https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-warns-solomon-islands-over-china-pact-will-fast-track-new-embassy-20220423-p5afjn.html)
Excerpt:
“If steps are taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power-projection capabilities, or a military installation, the delegation noted that the US would then have significant concerns and respond accordingly.

[Davexl]

New Zealand deal puts Japan closer to ‘Five Eyes’

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/new-zealand-deal-puts-japan-closer-to-five-eyes-20220423-p5afl7.html

If you don't have an account to log-in, get one, it's good for the ASX commentary also.
5 Free articles then reset your cookies.

[Davexl]

10m ago05.24

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/22/russia-ukraine-war-satellite-images-appear-to-show-mass-graves-near-mariupol-zelenskiy-says-ukraine-needs-7bn-a-month-in-aid-live?page=with:block-626379a48f08c1667906d40b#block-626379a48f08c1667906d40b)A western embargo on Russian oil and gas would deal “a very serious blow” to Russian president Vladimir Putin, former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, now in exile in London, has said in an interview with the BBC’s Hardtalk programme (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61187658).

I think if Putin has to redirect oil and gas exports from the European to the Asian markets, he will lose over half of his revenue,” said Khodorkovsky, who was once Russia’s richest man as owner of the country’s largest oil company, Yukos.


“It is half the revenue of the federal budget. Would he be able to continue the war and for how long would he be able to continue the war in those circumstances? It is difficult for me to say. After all, I am not a military expert. But I think it would be a very serious blow.”



https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d3825d2f15c282cd4c0d4ef110ee745623aa53e3/0_14_3500_2101/master/3500.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Former Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Photograph: Henry Nicholls/ReutersWhen asked whether western sanctions of Russian oligarchs would make any difference he said,

It is important to understand that right now the correct steps are being made but they are based on incorrect assumptions ... oligarchs are people who have the power to play a role in the political decision-making process. These people are not oligarchs in that sense. I was never one. They are Putin’s agents and he uses them to influence, or at least try to influence, the western political system.


If asked whether Putin is a war criminal, none of them would be prepared to give a straight answer, even though all of them understand that it is true. What does this mean? It means Putin has a tight grip on them and they will carry out any of his orders. And from this point of view, blocking their bank accounts, limiting their opportunities to influence western politics and the western economic system, is crucial.



Asked if he had any sense of responsibility or regret for helping Putin take power in the 1990s, he said “of course”.I started regretting it in 2002, 2003 when I told Putin in the Kremlin that his system was built on corruption and was ruining our country.

[Davexl]

2h ago04.09
(https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/apr/23/australia-live-news-updates-katherine-deves-avoids-media-at-election-forum-us-warns-china-against-solomon-islands-base?page=with:block-62636c4c8f08c1667906d3db#block-62636c4c8f08c1667906d3db)
Australia secured commitment from Solomon Islands 'to not have foreign military bases'

When Simon Birmingham spoke to reporters this morning in Brisbane, he defended the Australian government’s actions in the Solomon Islands both before and after the security deal was announced.

He said:

Scott Morrison has had many conversations with prime minister [Manasseh] Sogavare. And we as a country continue to engage appropriately with the Solomon Islands and it’s through those areas of engagement that we’ve secured important commitments from the Solomon Islands to not have any foreign military bases established in the Solomon Islands.

Birmingham said Australia “remains their partner of choice when it comes to security issues”.

We will continue to work closely with the Solomon Islands, notwithstanding our disappointment in relation to their decision to enter into this agreement with China.

Birmingham was also asked whether the United States’ decision to reopen an embassy in the Solomon Islands was useful. He said:

We welcome deeper engagement by all of our partners in the Pacific. Australia has a comprehensive network of embassies and high commissions across Pacific island nations. We, under the Coalition, under Scott Morrison, have scaled up diplomatic presence across Pacific island nations as we’ve scaled up our overseas development assistance to those nations ... And we welcome and encourage our partners to do likewise.

[Davexl]

19m ago00.00
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/23/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-warns-moscow-wants-to-capture-other-countries-as-moldova-expresses-concern-over-russian-plans-live?page=with:block-626481f58f084c98f77b31c8#block-626481f58f084c98f77b31c8)
Summary of recent developments

It’s 2am in Ukraine.


President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held a press conference today in an underground subway station, speaking at length about possible peace negotiations with Russia and announcing that US defense secretary Lloyd Austin and Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, will travel to Kyiv to meet with him on Sunday.
Zelenskiy made clear that if Russia kills any Mariupol defenders or goes forward with the independence referendum in the partly occupied southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine will suspend peace negotiations with Moscow.
Zelenskiy got emotional speaking about the earlier missile attack on Odesa that injured 18 and killed eight, including a three-month-old baby, her mother and her grandmother.


The United Kingdom’s ministry of defense has released an intelligence update detailing accusations that Russia is planning to conscript Ukrainian civilians in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.



A number of special monitoring mission staff members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have been detained in Donetsk and Luhansk.
It’s Orthodox Easter weekend and many Ukrainians cannot celebrate the way they have in years past. But Vladimir Putin marked the high holiday alongside Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin by attending a midnight Easter mass put on by the Russian Orthodox Church - a move that drew ire from many in Ukraine.

[Bjauck]

New Zealand deal puts Japan closer to ‘Five Eyes’

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/new-zealand-deal-puts-japan-closer-to-five-eyes-20220423-p5afl7.html

If you don't have an account to log-in, get one, it's good for the ASX commentary also.
5 Free articles then reset your cookies. I would have thought that Singapore and/or Malaysia would have been more likely to join the Five Eyes first. They are Commonwealth members and Australia, The UK and NZ are already in close alliance with them.

However any widening in Five Eyes may also weaken or reduce its effectiveness and cohesiveness. There may be other ways to share intelligence with other countries to adapt to changing circumstances?

Interesting item:
Integrating Japan into Five Eyes.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/integrating-japan-into-an-expanded-five-eyes-alliance/

[Davexl]

43m ago21.41

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/23/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-warns-moscow-wants-to-capture-other-countries-as-moldova-expresses-concern-over-russian-plans-live?page=with:block-6264a7b68f088371a5f41025#block-6264a7b68f088371a5f41025)UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres will visit Turkey on Monday before travelling to Moscow and Kyiv, the UN said.
Guterres will meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has hosted peace negotiations, before visiting Moscow on Tuesday to visit Russian President Vladmir Putin.
On Thursday, Guterres will travel to Kyiv.


1h ago02.26
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/23/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-warns-moscow-wants-to-capture-other-countries-as-moldova-expresses-concern-over-russian-plans-live?page=with:block-6264a5e48f084c98f77b3235#block-6264a5e48f084c98f77b3235)
Volodymyr Zelenskiy used his evening address to describe Russia as a terrorist state and liken its actions in Mariupol to those of the Nazis.
Speaking on Saturday night in a video message posted on Facebook, Zelenskiy said those responsible for atrocities would be held to account. He referred to missile strike in Odesa on Saturday which killed 18 people, including a three-month old baby girl.
“How did she threaten Russia? It seems that killing children is just a new national idea of the Russian Federation,” Zelenskiy said. The missiles were launched by Russian strategic aircraft from the Caspian Sea region, he added. Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) managed to shoot down two missiles, but five more missiles hit the city.
“We will identify all those responsible for this strike.... Everyone who gives these orders, everyone who fulfils these orders. No matter how long it takes us, all these bastards will be responsible for every death they caused,” he said.

He added that new information continued to emerge regarding crimes by Russian forces against Mariupol residents. “New graves of people killed by the occupiers are being found. We are talking about tens of thousands of dead Mariupol residents. Negotiations of the occupiers on how they conceal the traces of their crimes are recorded,” he said.

Zelenskiy said Russia was continuing the activites of “filtration camps”, where Russian forces are sending Ukrainian citizens, before forcibly relocating them to Russia.
“The honest name for them is in fact different, concentration camps. Like those built by the Nazies in the past. Ukrainians from these camps, the survivors, are sent further into the occupied territories and to Russia,” he said. “They also deport children hoping that they will forget where there home is and where they are from.”

Zelenskiy said Russia’s actions were enough to show the world that the Russian army was a terrorist organisaiton.
He had spoken to UK prime minister Boris Johnson on Saturday, he said, thanking him for support, and was now preparing to meet US representatives.


1h ago02.11 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/23/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-warns-moscow-wants-to-capture-other-countries-as-moldova-expresses-concern-over-russian-plans-live?page=with:block-6264a3be8f084c98f77b3230#block-6264a3be8f084c98f77b3230)

Russia-Ukraine war: what we know on day 60 of the Russian invasion
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-what-we-know-on-day-60-of-the-russian-invasion)
Read more

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-what-we-know-on-day-60-of-the-russian-invasion)
2h ago01.21
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/23/russia-ukraine-war-latest-zelenskiy-warns-moscow-wants-to-capture-other-countries-as-moldova-expresses-concern-over-russian-plans-live?page=with:block-626497368f088371a5f40ff4#block-626497368f088371a5f40ff4)
The Ukrainian president has praised Britain’s efforts in training his military amid accusations the UK blocked requests to strengthen Kyiv’s defences after Russia’s first strike eight years ago, reports PA Media.

Here is further detail from PA Media’s report:

Volodymyr Zelensky told a press conference in Kyiv that the UK, along with the US, was supplying the “biggest military aid” in its struggle against Moscow’s invading forces.

This comes as a former defence secretary accused previous Downing Street operations of being reluctant to support Kyiv in the aftermath of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s annexing of Crimea in 2014.

Michael Fallon told The Sunday Times that, when serving under former Conservative prime minister David Cameron, he was told to turn down requests for assistance in upgrading Ukraine’s defences despite the Ministry of Defence wanting “to do more”.
“We were stymied and we were blocked in Cabinet from sending the Ukrainians the arms they needed,” Mr Fallon told the newspaper.

“Some in the Cabinet felt extremely strongly that we should do nothing to further provoke Russia.

“I felt that was absurd. The Russians didn’t need any provoking. They were already there, sending people across the border.”
In the run-up to and during the current incursion, London has emerged as one of Ukraine’s closest allies in terms of supplying Nato-class weapons.

[Waltzing]

MIDWAY on TV 3 tonight. Who doesnt know the names of the US bomber pilots who saved the pacific as we know it and why we are all here in paradise today.

[Bjauck]

MIDWAY on TV 3 tonight. Who doesnt know the names of the US bomber pilots who saved the pacific as we know it and why we are all here in paradise today. Lest we forget!

[Panda-NZ-]

Well done France.

Let's hope Australia kicks Morrison to the curb after surrendering the soloman islands and the port of darwin to the Chinese.

[Davexl]

1h ago00.11
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265d6008f084c98f77b38cc#block-6265d6008f084c98f77b38cc)
If you’re just joining us now, here’s a quick rundown of the latest developments:


US defense secretary Lloyd Austin and secretary of state Antony Blinken are currently in talks (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265b34c8f084c98f77b3844#block-6265b34c8f084c98f77b3844) with Volodymyr Zelensky, an advisor has told local Ukrainian news outlets. Zelensky is expected to use the meeting to appeal for more US military aid.
Russia is planning a “staged referendum (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265cb208f088371a5f41674#block-6265cb208f088371a5f41674) in the southern city of Kherson aimed at justifying its occupation”, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence report. “The city is key to Russia’s objective of establishing a land bridge to Crimea and dominating southern Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine),” the ministry said.
Igor Zhovkva, a top diplomatic adviser to Zelenskiy, has criticised UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres’ upcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265ba108f084c98f77b385b#block-6265ba108f084c98f77b385b) and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, saying that Guterres does “not really” have the authority to speak on behalf of Ukraine.
Zelenskiy has tweeted his congratulations (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265c8b38f084c98f77b3893#block-6265c8b38f084c98f77b3893) to Emmanuel Macron for winning the French presidential election. He called Macron “a true friend of Ukraine”.
Dozens of civilians who died during the Russian occupation of the Ukrainian city of Bucha were killed by tiny metal arrows (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/dozens-bucha-civilians-killed-flechettes-metal-darts-russian-artillery) from shells of a type fired by Russian artillery, forensic doctors have said. Fléchettes are an anti-personnel weapon widely used during the first world war.
Latest UNHCR data reveals almost 5.2 million Ukrainians have fled the country (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-626559568f084c98f77b35d3#block-626559568f084c98f77b35d3). More than 1,151,000 Ukrainians have left during April so far, compared with 3.4 million in the month of March alone. Beyond that, the UN’s International Organisation for Migration (IOM) estimates more than 7.7 million people have been displaced within Ukraine.
The OSCE, the world’s largest security body, has said it is “extremely concerned” after several of its Ukrainian members were believed to have been arrested in pro-Russian separatist territories (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-626552498f088371a5f4138c#block-626552498f088371a5f4138c) in the country’s east.
In his Easter Sunday message, Zelenskiy said the religious festival “gives us great hope and unwavering faith that light will overcome darkness, good will overcome evil, life will overcome death, and therefore Ukraine will surely win”.
Pope Francis has used the Orthodox Easter weekend to once again appeal for a truce in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-62653a5f8f088371a5f4127a#block-62653a5f8f088371a5f4127a) “to ease the suffering of exhausted people”.
Ukraine says hundreds of its forces and civilians are trapped inside the Azovstal steel plant in the city of Mariupol, which Russia has been trying to take for two months. Although Moscow had earlier declared victory in Mariupol and said its forces did not need to take the factory, the Ukrainian authorities say Russian forces have resumed air strikes and are trying to storm the plant.
Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdoğan and Zelenskiy have discussed Mariupol (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-626546968f08c1667906dcf5#block-626546968f08c1667906dcf5) during a telephone call. Turkey is ready to give all possible assistance during negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the Turkish presidency said on Sunday.
The UN has called for an “immediate stop” to fighting in Mariupol so that civilians trapped in the city can be evacuated today.

[Davexl]

Here in NZ, as we commemorate ANZAC day and remember those who served and are actively serving our country. Let us try not to be too cynical about the state of readiness of our Defence forces and their capacity to fight, versus that of Australia's forces.

We - the public of New Zealand and successive governments over the last 40 years have allowed ourselves to run our Defence forces severely down, where they are almost irrelevant except for peacekeeping and civilian / humanitarian aid in the Pacific and we have only ourselves to blame.

Perhaps there is still time to put things right, and repair the relationship with our only formal allie Australia, and rejoin with the US to take on a future China in the Pacific, but the clock is ticking, especially since the China / Solomons agreement, reminding us of how quickly our geo-strategic situation can change.

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age" | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/

[BDL]

Here in NZ, as we commemorate ANZAC day and remember those who served and are actively serving our country. Let us try not to be too cynical about the state of readiness of our Defence forces and their capacity to fight, versus that of Australia's forces.

We - the public of New Zealand and successive governments over the last 40 years have allowed ourselves to run our Defence forces severely down, where they are almost irrelevant except for peacekeeping and civilian / humanitarian aid in the Pacific and we have only ourselves to blame.

Perhaps there is still time to put things right, and repair the relationship with our only formal allie Australia, and rejoin with the US to take on a future China in the Pacific, but the clock is ticking, especially since the China / Solomons agreement, reminding us of how quickly our geo-strategic situation can change.

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age" | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/

Excellent article.

Come on NZ, stop fighting Maori against all other New Zealanders. Look at where the real threat is coming from.

(And I suspect some of this discourse in NZ is partly, deliberately, stirred on by our real enemies)

Time for great leadership. Know anyone capable?? Ardern doesn't look like it to me. She actually looks part of the problem.

[GTM 3442]

The insiders view from outside

https://thebell.io/en/economic-constraints/

[Davexl]

Here in NZ, as we commemorate ANZAC day and remember those who served and are actively serving our country. Let us try not to be too cynical about the state of readiness of our Defence forces and their capacity to fight, versus that of Australia's forces.

We - the public of New Zealand and successive governments over the last 40 years have allowed ourselves to run our Defence forces severely down, where they are almost irrelevant except for peacekeeping and civilian / humanitarian aid in the Pacific and we have only ourselves to blame.

Perhaps there is still time to put things right, and repair the relationship with our only formal allie Australia, and rejoin with the US to take on a future China in the Pacific, but the clock is ticking, especially since the China / Solomons agreement, reminding us of how quickly our geo-strategic situation can change.

"New Zealand’s dangerous strategic apathy in an uncertain age" | The Strategist

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-zealands-dangerous-strategic-apathy-in-an-uncertain-age/


Australia gets it - New Zealand governments?

4h ago03.01

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265ffc38f084c98f77b3972#block-6265ffc38f084c98f77b3972)https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2020/11/24/Mostafa_Rachwani.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&
Mostafa Rachwani

Australia’s defence minister, Peter Dutton, has said that the only way to “preserve peace is to prepare for war” and compared events in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) to the 1930s, in an appearance on the Today breakfast show.

As the country marks Anzac day, the national day of commemoration in Australia and New Zealand, Dutton also warned of the increased risk that China is posing in the Pacific, and lambasted anyone who wants to “curl up in a ball, pretending nothing is happening”:



The only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war and be strong as a country, not to cower, not to be on, you know, bended knee and be weak. That’s the reality.

Curling up in a ball, pretending nothing is happening, saying nothing, that is not … in our long-term interests and we should be very honest about that.

We have to be realistic that people like Hitler and others aren’t just a figment of our imagination or that they’re consigned to history.
We have in President Putin at the moment somebody who is willing to kill women and children. That’s happening in the year 2022.

It’s a replay, in part, of what happened in the 1930s.

[Davexl]

2h ago04.54

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-626619ac8f08c1667906e177#block-626619ac8f08c1667906e177)Here’s a bit more detail on the Blinken-Austin visit to Kyiv from AP, which reports that the top US envoys promised more $300m in foreign military financing and have approved a $165 million sale of ammunition.
The news agency wrote:

They also said Biden would soon announce his nominee to be ambassador to Ukraine and that American diplomats who left Ukraine before the war would start returning to the country this coming week. The US embassy in Kyiv will remain closed for the moment.


Zelenskyy had announced Saturday that he would meet with the US officials in Kyiv on Sunday, but the Biden administration refused to confirm that and declined to discuss details of a possible visit even though planning had been underway for more than a week.
Journalists who traveled with Austin and Blinken to Poland were barred from reporting on the trip until it was over, were not allowed to accompany them on their overland journey into Ukraine, and were prohibited from specifying where in southeast Poland they waited for the Cabinet members to return. Officials at the State Department and the Pentagon cited security concerns.

Austin and Blinken announced a total of $713 million in foreign military financing for Ukraine and 15 allied and partner countries; some $322 million is earmarked for Kyiv. The remainder will be split among NATO members and other nations that have provided Ukraine with critical military supplies since the war with Russia began, officials said.

Such financing is different from previous US military assistance for Ukraine. It is not a donation of drawn-down US Defense Department stockpiles, but rather cash that countries can use to purchase supplies that they might need.
The new money, along with the sale of $165 million in non-U.S. made ammunition that is compatible with Soviet-era weapons the Ukrainians use, brings the total amount of American military assistance to Ukraine to $3.7 billion since the invasion, officials said.

Zelenskiy had urged the Americans not to come empty-handed. US officials said they believed the new assistance would satisfy at least some of the Ukrainians’ urgent pleas for more help. New artillery, including howitzers, continues to be delivered at a rapid pace to Ukraine’s military, which is being trained on its use in neighboring countries, the officials said.

On the diplomatic front, Blinken told Zelenskyy that Biden will announce his nomination of veteran diplomat Bridget Brink to be the next U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
A career foreign service officer, Brink has served since 2019 as ambassador to Slovakia. She previously held assignments in Serbia, Cyprus, Georgia and Uzbekistan as well as with the White House National Security Council. The post requirements confirmation by the US Senate.

Blinken also told Ukraine’s foreign minister that the small staff from the now-shuttered US embassy in Kyiv, which has relocated to Poland from temporary offices in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, would begin making day trips to Lviv in the coming days.

[Davexl]

5h ago02.18

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265f3108f088371a5f41722#block-6265f3108f088371a5f41722)Global military spending rose again in 2021, setting new records as Russia continued to beef up its military prior to its invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), researchers have said according to AFP, predicting the trend would continue in Europe in particular.

The news agency writes despite the economic fallout of the global Covid pandemic, countries around the world increased their arsenals, with global military spending rising by 0.7 percent last year, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).


“In 2021 military spending rose for the seventh consecutive time to reach $2.1 trillion. That is the highest figure we have ever had,” Diego Lopes da Silva, senior researcher at Sipri, told AFP.

Russia’s spending grew by 2.9% - the third year of consecutive growth - to $65.9 billion.

Defence spending accounted for 4.1% of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP), “much higher than the world average”, and making Moscow the fifth largest spender in the world, Lopes da Silva said.

High oil and gas revenues helped the country boost military expenditure. Lopes da Silva noted that Russia saw a sharp uptick in spending towards the end of the year.

“That happened as Russia amassed troops alongside the Ukrainian border preceding of course the invasion of Ukraine in February,” the researcher said.
Whether Russia would be able to sustain its spending was difficult to predict, Lopes da Silva said, due to the wave of sanctions imposed by the West in response to the aggression in Ukraine.

In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, the country was also targeted with sanctions at the same time as energy prices fell, making it difficult to gauge how effective sanctions were on their own.

“Now... we have even tougher sanctions, that’s for sure, but we have higher energy prices which can help Russia afford to maintain military spending at that level,” Lopes da Silva said.

On the other side, Ukraine’s military spending has risen by 72% since the annexation of Crimea. While spending declined by over eight% in 2021 to $5.9 billion, it still accounted for 3.2% of Ukraine’s GDP.

As tensions have increased in Europe, more NATO countries have stepped up spending.
Eight members countries last year reached the targeted two% of GDP for spending, one fewer than the year before but up from only two in 2014, Sipri said.

Lopes da Silva said he expected spending in Europe to continue to grow.

The US, which far outspent any other nation with $801 billion, actually went against the global trend and decreased its spending by 1.4% in 2021.

Over the past decade, US spending on research and development has risen by 24% while arms procurement has gone down by 6.4%.

While both decreased in 2021, the drop in research was not as pronounced, highlighting the country’s focus “on next-generation technologies.”
“The US government has repeatedly stressed the need to preserve the US military’s technological edge over strategic competitors,” Alexandra Marksteiner, another researcher at Sipri, said in a statement.

China, the world’s second largest military spender at an estimated $293 billion, boosted its expenditure by 4.7%, marking the 27th straight year of increased spending.
The country’s military buildup has in turn caused its regional neighbours to beef up their military budgets, with Japan adding $7 billion, an increase of 7.3% - the highest annual increase since 1972.

Australia also spent four% more on its military, reaching $31.8 billion in 2021.

India, the world’s third largest spender at $76.6 billion, also increased funding in 2021, but by a more modest 0.9%.

The UK took over the number four spot, with a 3% increase in military spending to $68.4 billion, replacing Saudi Arabia which instead decreased spending by 17% to an estimated $55.6 billion.

[Davexl]

1h ago06.28
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-6266304f8f08c1667906e1f1#block-6266304f8f08c1667906e1f1)
Russia’s ministry of defence has suggested compensation for the families of dead servicemen be overseen by military rather than civilian officials, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has written in its latest intelligence update.
“This likely reflects a desire to hide the true scale of Russia’s losses from the domestic population,” it wrote.

It also said Russia’s decision to besiege rather than attack Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant “means many Russian units remain fixed in the city and cannot be redeployed. Ukraine’s defence of Mariupol has also exhausted many Russian units and reduced their combat effectiveness.”

In the Donbas, meanwhile, Russia had made”minor advances” since shifting its focus to the region but, the update noted, “without sufficient logistical and combat support enablers in place, Russia has yet to achieve a significant breakthrough”.

[Davexl]

Australia gets it - New Zealand governments?

4h ago03.01

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265ffc38f084c98f77b3972#block-6265ffc38f084c98f77b3972)https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2020/11/24/Mostafa_Rachwani.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&
Mostafa Rachwani

Australia’s defence minister, Peter Dutton, has said that the only way to “preserve peace is to prepare for war” and compared events in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) to the 1930s, in an appearance on the Today breakfast show.

As the country marks Anzac day, the national day of commemoration in Australia and New Zealand, Dutton also warned of the increased risk that China is posing in the Pacific, and lambasted anyone who wants to “curl up in a ball, pretending nothing is happening”:


The only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war and be strong as a country, not to cower, not to be on, you know, bended knee and be weak. That’s the reality.

Curling up in a ball, pretending nothing is happening, saying nothing, that is not … in our long-term interests and we should be very honest about that.

We have to be realistic that people like Hitler and others aren’t just a figment of our imagination or that they’re consigned to history.
We have in President Putin at the moment somebody who is willing to kill women and children. That’s happening in the year 2022.

It’s a replay, in part, of what happened in the 1930s.


6h ago20.56

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/24/russia-ukraine-war-top-us-officials-to-meet-zelenskiy-in-kyiv-eight-killed-in-russian-attacks-in-luhansk-governor-says?page=with:block-6265f0ad8f088371a5f41715#block-6265f0ad8f088371a5f41715)Tess McClure

New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern has used her annual speech on Anzac Day – the day of national remembrance in New Zealand and Australia – to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) and call for peace.
Speaking at a service of remembrance for New Zealand troops who have died in overseas conflicts, Ardern said New Zealand and other countries were “inextricably linked” to the war in Ukraine.

“Fresh in all our minds is the invasion of Ukraine, a most grim reminder of the fragile nature of peace, and the devastating impact of war on people’s lives,” Ardern said.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/2694fac922db3f09394dacdb19dd0a4fb6870c10/0_33_3707_2225/master/3707.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern lays a wreath to commemorate Anzac Day during the dawn service at Auckland War Memorial Museum. Photograph: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images

“The invasion of Ukraine is a senseless act of war, one that is taking the lives of innocent people. It is a threat to the international laws that a nation like ours relies on – but it is also a threat to our sense of humanity. And that makes it a threat to all of us.”

She said New Zealand would not “sit on the side-lines,” and outlined the country’s contribution of military aid.

“Today, on this day, we are yet again reminded that peace cannot be taken for granted. That it must be preserved by the acts of leaders, and protected through the actions of citizens.”

Well - We'll believe it when we see the large increase in the Defence budget Prime Minister !

[GTM 3442]

As I understand it, the NZ defence budget is about 1,5% of GDP at about $4.5 billion.

About 40 to 50 percent up from it's low point in the 2010s

To take it to NATO's 2% would put at about $6 billion.

Out of idle curiosity, where would the extra $1.5 billion go?

[Panda-NZ-]

Australia's spent a lot on defence but china still took the Solomon islands.

Spy agencies could do with some more. Xi and Putin fear coups more than most other things and the CIA can help it along.

[Davexl]

As I understand it, the NZ defence budget is about 1,5% of GDP at about $4.5 billion.

About 40 to 50 percent up from it's low point in the 2010s

To take it to NATO's 2% would put at about $6 billion.

Out of idle curiosity, where would the extra $1.5 billion go?


For a start, stand-off missile systems, air defence, extra ships and patrol aircraft, drones.
Anything needed to update our defences from Vietnam era thinking and arming to modern warfare doctrines as we are seeing in the world right now. And more importantly - upgrading readiness...
Certainly not merely on replacement buildings and new paint jobs...

[Davexl]

20m ago23.08
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-62671a948f088a33aff42040#block-62671a948f088a33aff42040)
Russia foreign minister warns of ‘real’ danger of world war three
Sergei Lavrov told Russian news agencies that Russia’s peace talks with Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) will continue, but that there remains a “real” danger of a third world war. The Russian foreign minister was critical of the Ukrainian president’s approach to peace talks, accusing him of “pretending” to negotiate and calling him a “good actor”.

“Good will has its limits. But if it isn’t reciprocal, that doesn’t help the negotiation process,” he said. “But we are continuing to engage in negotiations with the team delegated by Zelenskiy, and these contacts will go on.”
He said he was confident that “everything will of course finish with the signing of an accord”, but that “the parameters of this accord will be defined by the state of the fighting that will have taken place at the moment the accord becomes reality”.

The danger of a world war is real, he said. “The danger is serious, it is real, you can’t underestimate it,” Lavrov told the Interfax news agency.

[Davexl]

24m ago00.17
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-6267293c8f088a33aff4208f#block-6267293c8f088a33aff4208f)
A series of precision strikes on five railway stations in central and western Ukraine within one hour on Monday was a “likely effort” to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements and western aid shipments, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-25).
The strikes, which the US-based think tank said were “an abnormal number of precision missile strikes for one day”, may also have been meant to demonstrate Russia’s ability to hit targets in western Ukraine after a surprise visit to Kyiv by US secretary of state Antony Blinken (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/antony-blinken) and secretary of defense Lloyd Austin, it said.
However it also noted that:



Russian precision strike capabilities will remain limited and unlikely to decisively affect the course of the war; open-source research organization Bellingcat reported on April 24 that Russia has likely used 70% of its total stockpile of precision missiles to date



The think tank said that local Ukrainian counterattacks had retaken territory north of the southern city of Kherson while Russian forces continue to make “little progress in scattered, small-scale attacks in eastern Ukraine”.



Ukrainian forces are successfully halting Russian efforts to bypass Ukrainian defensive positions around Izyum [in the eastern province of Kharkiv], and Russian forces are struggling to complete even tactical encirclements. Local Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson Oblast are unlikely to develop into a larger counteroffensive in the near term but are disrupting Russian efforts to completely capture Kherson Oblast and are likely acting as a drain on Russian combat power that could otherwise support Russia’s main effort in eastern Ukraine.



Other key takeaways from Monday include:
Russian forces resumed ground attacks against Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant in the last 24 hours. Russian officers may assess they will be unable to starve out the remaining defenders by May 9 (a possible self-imposed deadline to complete the capture of Mariupol). Russian forces will likely take high casualties if they resume major ground assaults to clear the facility.

Russian forces are accelerating efforts to secure occupied Mariupol but will likely face widespread Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces are preparing for renewed attacks to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine after minor losses in the past 48 hours.
Russian forces likely conducted a false flag attack in Transnistria (Russia’s illegally occupied territory in Moldova) to amplify Russian claims of anti-Russian sentiment in Moldova, but Transnistrian forces remain unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine.

[Davexl]

46m ago00.01 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-626722208f08182fbec20d95#block-626722208f08182fbec20d95)
SummaryIf you’re just joining us, here’s a summary of the most recent developments in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), where the time is 2am:


About 15,000 Russian troops have been killed since start of the invasion, the UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace has said (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-6266cb148f08182fbec20aa2#block-6266cb148f08182fbec20aa2). Speaking in parliament on Monday afternoon, he added that alongside the death toll, 2,000 armoured vehicles had been destroyed or captured, including 530 tanks. Russia is believed to have lost more than 60 helicopters and fighter jets.
Wallace also confirmed that the UK will send a small number of Stormer missile launching vehicles to Ukraine, and that the overall amount of military aid could rise to £500m (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/25/uk-military-aid-to-ukraine-could-rise-to-500m-mps-told). The UK has sent 5,361 NLAWs, 200 Javelins and will provide 250 Starstreak anti-air missiles.
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has warned that there remains a “real” danger of a third world war (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-62671a948f088a33aff42040#block-62671a948f088a33aff42040), in interviews with Russian media. He also said that deliveries of western weaponry to Ukraine mean that the Nato alliance is “in essence engaged in war with Russia” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-62671da68f08fa9d2d9a2f96#block-62671da68f08fa9d2d9a2f96).
Russia’s foreign ministry said it had expelled 40 German diplomatic staff in a retaliatory move after Berlin expelled the same number of Russian diplomats. In a statement, Russia’s foreign ministry said it had taken the decision after Germany declared a “significant number” of officials at the Russian embassy in Berlin “undesirable” on 4 April.
A senior Russian diplomat has been quoted as saying that a ceasefire in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) would not be “a good option” as Kyiv may use it to “stage provocations”.Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the UN, said: “Ukraine is undermining our efforts to open humanitarian corridors so we don’t think a ceasefire is a good option now.”
The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said the shelling of a government building in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria was a “planned provocation” by Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-62670e628f088a33aff41ff3#block-62670e628f088a33aff41ff3). “Obviously, this case is one of a number of provocative measures organized by the FSB [the Russian security service] to instill panic and anti-Ukrainian sentiment,” the ministry’s defense intelligence department said, according to CNN.
Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit simultaneous membership applications to the US-led Nato alliance as early as the middle of next month, Nordic media reports. The story was broken by Finnish newspaper Iltalehti (https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/d2dc4797-c396-421a-a33e-490d5ed7c240), and Swedish government sources appeared to confirm the news to domestic media in the country (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/sweden-and-finland-agree-to-submit-nato-applications).
Five railway stations in central and western Ukraine were hit by Russian airstrikes in the space of one hour on Monday. Oleksander Kamyshin, the head of Ukrainian Railways, said five train stations came under fire causing an unspecified number of casualties, as most of Ukraine was placed under an unusually long air raid warning for two hours on Monday morning. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/russia-bombs-five-rail-stations-in-central-and-western-ukraine)
Russia should be “weakened to the point where it can’t do things like invade Ukraine”, the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, said after he and the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, visited Kyiv (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/us-diplomats-to-return-to-ukraine-and-fresh-military-aid-unveiled-after-blinken-visit) and pledged a further $713m to help Ukraine in its war effort. Blinken said Russia was “failing” in its war aims, while Ukraine was succeeding. He added that the US had put in place a strategy of “massive support for Ukraine, massive pressure against Russia” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/us-diplomats-to-return-to-ukraine-and-fresh-military-aid-unveiled-after-blinken-visit) across Nato members.
A statue erected to show solidarity between Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) and Russia in Kyiv is to be taken down, according to the city’s mayor. The bronze statue showing two workers standing stand-by-side will be dismantled on Tuesday. A second sculpture will be covered up. They were both installed in 1982 and lie underneath the People Friendship Arch near the Dnieper River.
The office of the prosecutor of the international criminal court (ICC) has joined an EU-backed team investigating crimes in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) in an unprecedented move. Karim Khan QC announced on Monday that the ICC had become a participant in the joint investigation team (JIT), whose members are Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine. The JIT involves international cooperation in criminal matters under the auspices of Eurojust, the EU agency for criminal justice cooperation.

[Davexl]

8m ago01.17
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-626734b68f08182fbec20dea#block-626734b68f08182fbec20dea)
The fate of Europe and of global security is being decided in Ukraine, president Volodymyr Zelesnkiy has said in his latest nightly address (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-ce-spravzhnij-simvol-borotbi-za-svobodu-zvernennya-74569), which on Monday marked the beginning of the third month of the war.

Everyone in the world - and even those who do not openly support us - agree that it is in Ukraine that the fate of Europe, the fate of global security, the fate of the democratic system is being decided. And above all, it is being decided what life in the center and east of our continent will be like and whether there will be life at all ...


In all Ukraine’s cities and communities, Russia has shown what it really wants and can bring to Europe. What it can bring to Chișinău, Tbilisi, Helsinki, Vilnius, Warsaw, Prague, all the cities and countries that Russian state propagandists have long openly identified as alleged enemies for Moscow.



Even as the war was ongoing he said, “we are demonstrating that we will give free Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) more opportunities for development than Russia can give not only to the occupied part of our territory, but also to its own territory, its own state.”

We are accelerating our movement to the European Union as much as possible. We have already passed a historic moment, an important stage - with the receipt and answering a special questionnaire, which was provided to each country before they acquired the status of a candidate for EU membership.


Even now, when the war is still going on, we are creating the necessary base for the reconstruction of Ukraine. These are international agreements of various levels, this is the creation of special funds for the reconstruction of our state.



He added:

Russia can spend enormous resources to support the war. To oppose even the whole free world. It can take away from its people everything that could develop Russia itself, and direct this potential to destroy the lives of neighbors.


But the lessons of history are well known. If you are going to build a millennial Reich, you lose. If you are going to destroy the neighbors, you lose. If you want to restore the old empire, you lose. And if you go against the Ukrainians, you lose.



He also said that 931 settlements had been de-occupied since the invasion.

Many cities and communities are still under the temporary control of the Russian army. But I have no doubt that it is only a matter of time before we liberate our land.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8b192a2668dea8774d80964863b10c0ea2b7887d/0_6_3000_1800/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy (R). Photograph: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters


27m ago00.58
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-626731ed8f08182fbec20ddc#block-626731ed8f08182fbec20ddc)
The Ukrainian grain harvest is likely to be down by 20% this year on last year due to reduced sowing areas following the invasion, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has warned in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.
It noted:

Ukraine is the fourth largest producer and exporter of agricultural goods in the world. Reduced grain supply from Ukraine will generate inflationary pressures, elevating the global price of grain.

High grain prices could have significant implications for global food markets and threaten global food security, particularly in some of the least economically developed countries.

[Waltzing]

A retired US general wrote recently that the russians are lucky they only invaded ukraine and not poland..

he thought the poles would have been even more aggressive.

he thought no russians one would have got out of poland alive.

[Panda-NZ-]

Russia has enough land dont they?

Completely incompetent at using it though (and they sold off alaska for a couple of cents).

[Davexl]

21m ago02.48 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-62674dfd8f08fa9d2d9a307d#block-62674dfd8f08fa9d2d9a307d)

Russia has accused Kyiv of preventing civilians trapped with Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol’s Azovstal steelworks from leaving the besieged industrial centre despite a ceasefire announcement, AFP reports.
The news agency writes:



The defence ministry had said it would allow a civilian evacuation from Mariupol’s sprawling steel plant, which has been sheltering the remaining Ukrainian resistance in the southeastern port city, on Monday.
But the Russian army on Monday evening said no one used the proposed humanitarian corridor.

“The Kyiv authorities have again cynically undermined this humanitarian operation,” it said in a statement, accusing the Ukrainian government of “indifference” towards its citizens.

Russian troops “from 14:00 Moscow time (1100 GMT) on April 25, 2022, will unilaterally stop any hostilities, withdraw units to a safe distance and ensure the withdrawal of” civilians, the defence ministry had said.
It said the civilians – women, children and the Azovstal staff – would be taken “in any direction they have chosen”.
It added that the Ukrainian side should show “readiness” to start the humanitarian evacuations “by raising white flags”.

According to the ministry, this information would be communicated to those inside Azovstal “via radio channels” every 30 minutes.
Russia last week said it had gained full control of the strategic eastern Ukrainian city, except for the huge Azovstal industrial area.
President Vladimir Putin ordered a blockade of the steelworks, where hundreds of civilians are reportedly sheltering with Ukrainian troops.


https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/285e6c9acb332c37f33fcbca4852ace0897ab42d/0_0_3447_2069/master/3447.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&

Smoke rises above the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol on Monday. Photograph: Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, had earlier said (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-62669b6d8f08ef9d840c924f#block-62669b6d8f08ef9d840c924f) the UN should be the “initiator and guarantor” of any agreement with Russia on evacuating civilians from the steel plant.
Vereshchuk wrote on Telegram:



Today, the Russian side once again announced the existence of a corridor for civilians to leave Azovstal. This could be believed if the Russians had not destroyed humanitarian corridors many times before.



A humanitarian corridor must be opened “by the agreement of both sides”, Vereshchuk said.



A corridor announced unilaterally does not provide security, and therefore is not a humanitarian corridor.



She said Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) had “appealed” for the UN secretary general, Antonoi Guterres, to be “the initiator and guarantor of the humanitarian corridor from Azovstal for civilians”.
Representatives of the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross should be present when any humanitarian corridor was established, she said.


45m ago02.23
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-626746ba8f088a33aff42108#block-626746ba8f088a33aff42108)
Officials from more than 40 countries are set to gather at Germany’s Ramstein airbase on Tuesday, for US-hosted talks expected to focus on how to arm Kyiv against a Russian onslaught in eastern Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).
The gathering will be led by US defense secretary Lloyd Austin following his meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy (https://www.theguardian.com/world/volodymyr-zelenskiy) on Sunday.

US army general Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters traveling with him that a key goal of the talks was to synchronize and coordinate mounting security assistance to Kyiv that includes heavy weaponry, like howitzer artillery, as well armed drones and ammunition, according to Reuters.



The next several weeks will be very, very critical. They need continued support in order to be successful on the battlefield. And that’s really the purpose of this conference.”



Driven back by Ukrainian forces from a failed assault on Kyiv in the north, Moscow has redeployed its troops into the east for a ground offensive in two provinces known as the Donbas.

US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, assess that Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) will rely heavily on artillery strikes, trying to pound Ukrainian positions as Moscow moves in ground forces from multiple directions to try to envelop and wipe out a significant chunk of Ukraine’s military.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ea9d0a9b4ae5394ef321d990171e2925ec966efc/0_104_6000_3600/master/6000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
US defense secretary Lloyd Austin (L) and secretary of state Antony Blinken (C) at their meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Sunday. Photograph: AP

But the United States also estimates many Russian units are depleted, with some operating with personnel losses as high as 30% - a level considered by the US military to be too high to keep fighting, officials say.

US officials cite anecdotes like Russian tanks with sole drivers and no crew and substandard equipment that is either prone to breakdowns or out of date.

British assessments showed that around 15,000 Russian personnel had been killed in the conflict while 2,000 armoured vehicles including some 530 tanks had been destroyed, along with 60 helicopters and fighter jets, defence secretary Ben Wallace said on Monday.

Russia has so far acknowledged only 1,351 troops killed and 3,825 wounded.

[Davexl]

1h ago03.32 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/25/russia-ukraine-war-us-pledges-return-of-diplomats-to-ukraine-after-blinken-visit-russian-oil-depot-on-fire-near-border-live?page=with:block-6267586d8f088a33aff4216d#block-6267586d8f088a33aff4216d)

The 193 members of the UN General Assembly are to vote Tuesday on a resolution that would require the five permanent members of the Security Council to justify their use of the veto in future, AFP reports.

The news agency writes:



Discussions of veto reform are rare and controversial, but have been revived by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Directly targeting the US, China, Russia, France and the UK – who are the only holders of the veto right – the measure would “make them pay a higher political price” when they opt to use their veto to strike down a Security Council resolution, said an ambassador from a country that does not have the veto, and who asked to remain anonymous.
Critics call the measure, introduced by Liechtenstein, a “simple procedural reform.”
But it is not yet clear if the reform would push the five permanent members to use the veto less, or if it would create even more vetoes as permanent members propose controversial texts they know their rivals will to veto only to force them to justify their stance publicly.
First proposed more than two years ago, the measure provides for the General Assembly to be convened within 10 working days after a permanent member uses a veto “to hold a debate on the situation as to which the veto was cast,” according to the text.
Around sixty countries have joined Liechtenstein in co-sponsoring the reform, including the US – a rapid rally of support that caused widespread surprise at the UN.
Britain and France will vote for the reform, even though they abstained from co-sponsoring it.
Neither Russia nor China were among the sponsors of the text, either. A diplomat from one of the two countries, who asked not to be named, criticised the move, saying it will “divide” the UN even further.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/358a9042c27a464caeadc2efb937c9cdbb58ca84/0_117_3500_2102/master/3500.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov addresses UN General Assembly in New York. Photograph: Eduardo Muñoz/EPA

[Panda-NZ-]

Russia could make its own empire within its country if it likes.

There's enough landmass for two europes, so dice it up into 40 countries.

[Waltzing]

russia manage it land mass? its going to be tripped apart when global warming starts to dealing to the perma bear...

and china is feeling the heat of investors starting to question the CHMOA model of doing business..

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/25/investing/china-capital-outflows-covid-ukraine-war-intl-mic-hnk/index.html

[GTM 3442]

The Economist on the need for Australia to think about defence.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/04/13/australian-politicians-need-to-think-harder-about-defence

[Davexl]

2h ago20.23
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-62683fd88f087151f7bb7bf2#block-62683fd88f087151f7bb7bf2)
A new report (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015) from NBC News reveals the extent to which US intelligence has been assisting Ukrainian forces. The US has given the Ukrainian military detailed intelligence and the location of Russian bomb strikes, giving Ukrainian forces time to react before the bombs hit.
Here’s more from NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015):


As Russia launched its invasion, the US gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-using-declassified-intel-fight-info-war-russia-even-intel-isnt-rock-rcna23014) about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former US officials told NBC News.
That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine (https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia-ukraine-news) to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.

It was part of what American officials call a massive and unprecedented intelligence-sharing operation with a non-NATO partner that they say has played a crucial role in Ukraine’s success to date against the larger and better-equipped Russian military.
The details about the air defenses and the transport plane, which have not previously been reported, underscore why, two months into the war, officials assess that intelligence from US spy agencies and the Pentagon has been an important factor in helping Ukraine thwart Russia’s effort to seize most of the country.

“From the get-go, we leaned pretty heavily forward in sharing both strategic and actionable intelligence with Ukraine,” a US official briefed on the matter told NBC News. “It’s been impactful both at a tactical and strategic level. There are examples where you could tell a pretty clear story that this made a major difference.”
In a statement, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said, “We are regularly providing detailed, timely intelligence to the Ukrainians on the battlefield to help them defend their country against Russian aggression and will continue to do so.”

[Davexl]

4h ago19.00 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-62682f198f08b4175f4ad161#block-62682f198f08b4175f4ad161)
SummaryIt is 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand now:




Russia’s defence ministry warned of an immediate “proportional response” if Britain continues its “direct provocation” of the Kyiv regime, after the UK armed forces minister, James Heappey, described Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil that hit supplies and disrupt logistics as “completely legitimate”. (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/26/britain-backs-ukraine-carrying-out-strikes-in-russia-says-minister)



A Russian minister refused to rule out Moldova’s breakaway region Transnistria being drawn into the Ukraine war (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/moldova-holds-security-meeting-as-tensions-rise-over-breakaway-region-transnistria), in a potential escalation of the conflict to another European country. The deputy foreign minister, Andrey Rudenko, said on Tuesday said Moscow “was concerned” over the string of recent explosions in Transnistria, saying Russia “would like to avoid a scenario” in which Transnistria would be dragged into the war.



The United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, has travelled to Moscow in an attempt to put the UN at the heart of Ukrainian mediation efforts. In a joint press conference with Russia’s foreign minister, Guterres said the UN is “ready to fully mobilise its human and logistical resources to help save lives in Mariupol” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6267df418f088b9a1f7d48d6#block-6267df418f088b9a1f7d48d6). Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereschuk, said there was “no point” in the UN (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626800658f087151f7bb791d#block-626800658f087151f7bb791d) if there is no real humanitarian corridor from Mariupol.



During his joint presser with Guterres, Russia’s foreign secretary, Sergei Lavrov, said Russia has dismissed Ukraine’s proposal to stage peace talks in the port city of Mariupol. Lavrov said it was too early to talk about who would mediate in any negotiations, but he said Moscow was committed to a diplomatic solution via talks on Ukraine. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6267e6f28f087151f7bb7835#block-6267e6f28f087151f7bb7835)



The UN’s António Guterres then met with the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, who described the situation in Mariupol as “tragic” and “complicated”. Moscow and Kyiv were continuing talks in an online format, Putin said, adding that he hopes the talks would yield a positive result. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-62682d708f087151f7bb7b54#block-62682d708f087151f7bb7b54)



Poland’s government has been told that the country’s gas supply from Russia will stop from Wednesday following Warsaw’s refusal to pay its supplier, Gazprom, in roubles.
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626832c18f087151f7bb7b8b#block-626832c18f087151f7bb7b8b)The decision to stop supply (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626832c18f087151f7bb7b8b#block-626832c18f087151f7bb7b8b) had also followed Poland’s announcement earlier that it was imposing sanctions on 50 entities and individuals including Russia’s biggest gas company.



The head of the UN’s atomic watchdog has condemned the Russian occupation of the Chornobyl nuclear plant, describing the situation as “absolutely abnormal and very, very dangerous”. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general, Rafael Grossi, is heading an expert mission to Chornobyl (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6267e56a8f087151f7bb781c#block-6267e56a8f087151f7bb781c)to “deliver equipment, conduct radiological assessments and restore safeguards monitoring systems”, the IAEA said.



The United States has vowed to move “heaven and earth” to help Ukraine win its battle against Russia’s invasion as it hosted defence talks in Germany with allies from 40 nations. The gathering is being led by the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6267d76a8f08ef3579ea38e8#block-6267d76a8f08ef3579ea38e8) following his meeting with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on Sunday.



Germany will authorise the delivery of anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, the German defence minister, Christine Lambrecht, said. Lambrecht said the government has agreed to sign off the delivery of around 50 Gepard anti-aircraft weapons systems. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6267cece8f088b9a1f7d481c#block-6267cece8f088b9a1f7d481c) Switzerland said it had blocked Germany from sending Swiss-made ammunition (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626823dd8f08398c3b2c3d6c#block-626823dd8f08398c3b2c3d6c) used in Gepard anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine.

[Waltzing]

Russia in short is self destructing into a North Korea.

[Davexl]

The Economist on the need for Australia to think about defence.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/04/13/australian-politicians-need-to-think-harder-about-defence

Excerpt:
In truth, when it comes to Australia’s security priorities, a bipartisan consensus prevails. Both the ruling Liberal-National coalition and Labor deem the rise of an increasingly coercive China to represent what defence planners gloomily call the “most consequential strategic realignment” in the region since the second world war.
Defence spending has thus risen from about A$30bn ($22bn) in 2015 to almost A$50bn in this year’s budget, and will top A$70bn by 2030...

Gives you an idea of just how fast their Defence budget has expanded...

[Muse]

2h ago20.23
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-62683fd88f087151f7bb7bf2#block-62683fd88f087151f7bb7bf2)
A new report (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015) from NBC News reveals the extent to which US intelligence has been assisting Ukrainian forces. The US has given the Ukrainian military detailed intelligence and the location of Russian bomb strikes, giving Ukrainian forces time to react before the bombs hit.
Here’s more from NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-air-defenses-shoot-russian-plane-carry-rcna26015):


As Russia launched its invasion, the US gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-using-declassified-intel-fight-info-war-russia-even-intel-isnt-rock-rcna23014) about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former US officials told NBC News.
That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine (https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia-ukraine-news) to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.

It was part of what American officials call a massive and unprecedented intelligence-sharing operation with a non-NATO partner that they say has played a crucial role in Ukraine’s success to date against the larger and better-equipped Russian military.
The details about the air defenses and the transport plane, which have not previously been reported, underscore why, two months into the war, officials assess that intelligence from US spy agencies and the Pentagon has been an important factor in helping Ukraine thwart Russia’s effort to seize most of the country.

“From the get-go, we leaned pretty heavily forward in sharing both strategic and actionable intelligence with Ukraine,” a US official briefed on the matter told NBC News. “It’s been impactful both at a tactical and strategic level. There are examples where you could tell a pretty clear story that this made a major difference.”
In a statement, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said, “We are regularly providing detailed, timely intelligence to the Ukrainians on the battlefield to help them defend their country against Russian aggression and will continue to do so.”

Interesting the intelligence has been so outstanding here, while so rubbish on the former Afghanistan government's ability to continue without american support, and the whole WMD debacle from 2003. Although on the last two cases I suspect politics rode shotgun over what the intelligence officers were actually saying, and the politicians wanted to do what they wanted to do and spun the story around it.

[BlackPeter]

4h ago19.00 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-62682f198f08b4175f4ad161#block-62682f198f08b4175f4ad161)
SummaryIt is 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand now:

...


Switzerland said it had blocked Germany from sending Swiss-made ammunition (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626823dd8f08398c3b2c3d6c#block-626823dd8f08398c3b2c3d6c) used in Gepard anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine.
[/LIST]

Interesting, but wondering, whether this is correct?

No point in sending the Gepard to any army not trained in using it ... and you don't learn to use it in a crash course - it takes months to get a team up to speed in using it.

Gepard is a highly capable, but also highly sophisiticated weapons system, and I doubt they have instructions for it in Russian or Ukrainian language.

Used to operate it myself - 45 years ago or so, at that stage it was brand new.

[BlackPeter]

4h ago19.00 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-62682f198f08b4175f4ad161#block-62682f198f08b4175f4ad161)
SummaryIt is 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand now:

...

Germany will authorise the delivery of anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, the German defence minister, Christine Lambrecht, said. Lambrecht said the government has agreed to sign off the delivery of around 50 Gepard anti-aircraft weapons systems. Switzerland said it had blocked Germany from sending Swiss-made ammunition used in Gepard anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine.


Interesting, but wondering, whether this is correct?

No point in sending the Gepard to any army not trained in using it ... and you don't learn to use it in a crash course - it takes months to get a team up to speed in using it.

Gepard is a highly capable, but also highly sophisiticated weapons system, and I doubt they have instructions for it in Russian or Ukrainian language.

Used to operate it myself - 45 years ago or so, at that stage it was brand new.

[Davexl]

14m ago22.54

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6268688a8f087151f7bb7ceb#block-6268688a8f087151f7bb7ceb)Britain’s Foreign Minister Elizabeth Truss is expected to call on allies of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) to “ramp up” military production including of planes and tanks, the AFP is reporting after reviewing a preview of a speech to be delivered on Wednesday. In her speech, called the new approach, Truss says the UK’s new approach “will be based on three areas: military strength, economic security and deeper global alliances”.

“We cannot be complacent - the fate of Ukraine remains in the balance”, her speech reads.
Russia’s victory will have “terrible consequences across the globe,” Truss is expected to say. “We must be prepared for the long haul and double down on our support for Ukraine.

“Heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes - digging deep into our inventories, ramping up production. We need to do all of this.”
“There must be nowhere for Putin to go to fund this appalling war,” her speech continues.

“The architecture that was designed to guarantee peace and prosperity has failed Ukraine.”

“We must also follow through on the unity shown in this crisis to reboot, recast and remodel our approach to deterring aggressors.”
Truss will also call for “free nations” to be “more assertive and self-confident,” according to AFP.

[Davexl]

Interesting, but wondering, whether this is correct?

No point in sending the Gepard to any army not trained in using it ... and you don't learn to use it in a crash course - it takes months to get a team up to speed in using it.

Gepard is a highly capable, but also highly sophisiticated weapons system, and I doubt they have instructions for it in Russian or Ukrainian language.

Used to operate it myself - 45 years ago or so, at that stage it was brand new.


So if they're not sending Swiss made ammo for the Gepard system, does Germany have its own manufactured ammo ?

[Waltzing]

the system is german made.

ukraine is not some bunch of backward non computer literate peoples. Its harder to find tech people here in KIWI land that know deep level stuff then for us to get it in europe.

Gepard anti-aircraft turret and guns

The Gepard is fitted with a two-man electric power operated turret armed with twin Oerlikon KDA 35mm guns. The guns have automatic belt feed. Barrel length is 90 calibers (3,150mm). The rate of fire provided by the two barrels is 1,100 rounds a minute. Each 35mm gun has 320 rounds of ready-to-fire, anti-air ammunition and 20 rounds of anti-ground target ammunition. The guns are capable of firing a range of standardised 35mm ammunition, including the new FAPDS rounds. The FAPDS rounds have a muzzle velocity greater than 1,400m a second. The Gepard is equipped with eight smoke dischargers installed on either side of the turret.

https://www.army-technology.com/projects/gepard/

[Davexl]

9m ago23.53

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626877308f08b4175f4ad35f#block-626877308f08b4175f4ad35f)https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Julian-Borger,-R.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&Julian Borger

Russia’s war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) threatens to spill over in dangerous new phase, the Guardian’s world affairs editor, Julian Borger, writes for us today.

A series of mysterious explosions in Moldova (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/moldova-holds-security-meeting-as-tensions-rise-over-breakaway-region-transnistria) have raised the threat of Russia’s war in Ukraine spilling over into new territory, with unpredictable consequences.

The blasts destroyed radio antennas in a Russian-garrisoned sliver of eastern Moldova (https://www.theguardian.com/world/moldova) along the Ukrainian border, Transnistria, which had been peaceful since a brief conflict in 1992 waged by Kremlin-backed separatists against the Moldovan army.

The separatist authorities blamed the incidents on Ukrainian infiltrators while the Kyiv government alleged they were false-flag attacks designed to provide a pretext for an infusion of Russian troops, to add to the 1,500 already based there, just as similar blasts in the Donbas preceded the 24 February Russian invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2022/04/archive-zip/giv-6562fCZWPJlBNIPo/

Mysterious explosions in Moldova raise possibility of new Putin gambit after early failures

Those allegations were given greater weight when residents in Transnistria received fake SMS texts on Tuesday warning of an imminent Ukrainian attack. The Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, convened an emergency meeting of her security council and declared that forces were at play in Transnistria which were “interested in destabilising the region”.

A Russian move into Transnistria would pose an imminent threat to the sovereignty of Moldova, a country of 2.6 million people which, like Ukraine, has shown increasing interest in joining Nato.

It would also menace Odesa, the Ukrainian port city which lies on the Black Sea coast between Moldova and Russian-occupied Kherson.

Read the full story below.

Russia’s war in Ukraine threatens to spill over in dangerous new phase (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/russias-war-in-ukraine-threatens-to-spill-over-in-dangerous-new-phase)


17m ago23.45
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626875838f08398c3b2c3fe7#block-626875838f08398c3b2c3fe7)
The UN General Assembly took a first step to put the five permanent members of the Security Council under a global spotlight on Tuesday when they use their veto power, a move highlighted by Russia’s veto and threat of future vetoes that has paralysed any action by the UN’s most powerful body on the Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) war, the Associated Press is reporting.

The resolution does not eliminate or limit the veto power of the permanent members - the United States, Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia), China, Britain and France.
But for the first time it will require the General Assembly “to hold a debate on the situation” that sparks a veto in the Security Council within 10 working days, and to give precedence on the list of speakers to the permanent member who cast the veto.

The assembly isn’t required to take or consider any action, but the discussion could put veto-wielders on the spot and let a raft of other countries be heard.

Liechtenstein’s UN ambassador, Christian Wenaweser, who spearheaded the resolution, has said it aims “to promote the voice of all of us who are not veto-holders, and who are not on the Security Council, on matters of international peace and security because they affect all of us.”

Presenting the resolution to the assembly on Tuesday morning, Wenaweser alluded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Security Council’s failure to take action saying: “There has never been a stronger need for effective multilateralism than today, and there has never been a stronger need for innovation in order to secure the central role and voice of the United Nations.”

[Waltzing]

BP might be able to fill us in if the control boxes allowed for language selection.

Germany also may be sending old L1 MBT's as they become ready from storage but they will take longer to train up crews.

Any which way the flow of equipment isnt slowing down.

BUY DEFENCE STOCKS. The new staples.

and that is why the wild stuff from the criminals in the frozen wastes of russia keep coming.

[Davexl]

36m ago00.18
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-62687ce28f087151f7bb7d57#block-62687ce28f087151f7bb7d57)
US state department spokesman Ned Price responded to Lavrov’s comments (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626879118f087151f7bb7d37#block-626879118f087151f7bb7d37), saying they were part of a “pattern of bellicose statements” from Russia, which he branded “irresponsible” and “a clear attempt to distract from its failure in Ukraine.”




Loose talk of nuclear weapons, nuclear escalation is especially irresponsible, it is the height of irresponsibility,” Price told reporters on Tuesday.



Price said the US was paying close attention “to Russia’s activities, to what it’s doing and what it’s not doing” but added that the US saw no reason to change its own nuclear posture.


49m ago00.05
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626879118f087151f7bb7d37#block-626879118f087151f7bb7d37)
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said that the danger of nuclear war is “serious” and the core of any agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) would depend largely on the military situation on the ground.
Russia, Lavrov said in an interview broadcast on state television, was doing a lot to uphold the principle of striving to prevent nuclear war at all costs.





This is our key position on which we base everything. The risks now are considerable.
I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real. And we must not underestimate it.”



Lavrov, defending Moscow’s actions, also blamed Washington for the lack of dialogue.
“The United States has practically ceased all contacts simply because we were obliged to defend Russians in Ukraine,” Lavrov said, repeating the rationale for Moscow’s invasion of its southern neighbour.

But he said western supplies of sophisticated weapons, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, armoured vehicles and advanced drones were provocative measures calculated to prolong the conflict rather than bring it to an end.
“These weapons will be a legitimate target for Russia’s military acting within the context of the special operation,” Lavrov said.

“Storage facilities in western Ukraine have been targeted more than once (by Russian forces). How can it be otherwise?” he added. “Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war.”

[Davexl]

9m ago00.50
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626883348f08398c3b2c403e#block-626883348f08398c3b2c403e)
'The free world has the right to self-defence,' Zelenskiy says

Zelenskiy has said the “free world has the right to self-defence” after predicting that Russia intends to not only seize the territory of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) but to “dismember the entire centre and east of Europe” and “deal a global blow to democracy”.

There are almost no people left in the free world who do not understand that Russia’s war against Ukraine is just the beginning.

The ultimate goal of Russia’s leadership is not just to seize the territory of Ukraine, but to dismember the entire centre and east of Europe and deal a global blow to democracy.

Therefore, the free world has the right to self-defence. And that is why it will help Ukraine even more.”

[Davexl]

Zelenskiy seems to have a serious bee in his bonnet over nuclear radiation risks, after Russia sent some missiles over 3 nuclear facilities yesterday.

3m ago01.06
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626886888f08398c3b2c4047#block-626886888f08398c3b2c4047)
Zelenskiy reiterated Russia’s threat to nuclear security in his national address (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/glava-derzhavi-zustrivsya-z-generalnim-direktorom-magate-74597) after meeting with director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi.

No other country in the world since 1986 has posed such a major threat to nuclear security, to Europe and the world, that Russia has posed since February 24.


Russia kept a contingent in the Chernobyl zone with armoured vehicles, which destroyed the soil surface and raised an extraordinary amount of dust into the air, including radioactive particles.”



Zelenskiy added that Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) has “no right to turn nuclear energy into weapons”, as well as to blackmail the world with nuclear weapons.

We called everyone, we wanted a tough reaction from the world. We warned everyone that there could be a new nuclear catastrophe at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is like six Chernobyls, and that it could simply destroy Europe.”

[Waltzing]

BUY DEFENCE.

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/04/26/as-raytheon-struggles-to-replenish-stinger-missiles-lawmaker-pushes-defense-production-act/

[Beagle]

Up until recently buying defense stocks was something that I would never have considered due to ESG reasons but I think with what's going on now in Europe that's something I'm reconsidering. Bit late to the party so too speak but maybe not ? I think the percentage of GDP that all developed nations have to spend on defense is going to have to be radically recalibrated now and in the years ahead. I think there's an ETF for defense stocks. ITA or IT something, sorry I need to look into this more.

I have been very impressed using Raymarine systems on my boats over many years. I was looking at their latest autopilot systems the other day for a possible boat I'm looking at and noted their sensors are now nine axis, measuring yaw, lean, elevation and all sorts of other parmenter's. Pretty fancy stuff.
(Yes I know Raymarine was separated out as a separate company from Raytheon some years back)

Metrics for what is clearly a growth company don't look too bad to me https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RAYTHEON-TECHNOLOGIES-COR-4840/financials/
but its a big step buying defense stocks and I am not sure I am entirely comfortable with it...
Thoughts folks ?

[Waltzing]

Been kicking the furniture since 2014 wondering what the heck the germans thought they were doing sitting around waiting for the swords of Damocles to fall.

Wanted to turn on the "flight of the Valkyries" and ride around berlin blasting it out loud from the glass roof of a Merc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mkp8ZdQ9SqI

Its times like this you need a Churchill and Boris is the closest thing europe has.

Germany has failed to understand the gravity and only now is waking up to the threat of the northern Zarists.

It was 1936 in 2014 and it was as obvious as night and day.

Its ARM up people and fast.

This country of frozen brained idiots has never learnt it lessons ever in defeat after defeat.

The new orders for defence are only just starting and the companies will all be on higher P/E's you wont feel good about.

From Norway to eastern europe; from japan to Australia the orders will flow in to their own industries and US and Europe.

Australia was lucky it had BHP and was producing high grade metals in 1939.

If china has a navy base in the soloman's even NZ will have to buy missile defence systems.

Who knows maybe AUS will turn Norfolk island into missile site.

Now where does NZ position its mobile launch sites? Build and widen roads up north?

Often wondered who supplied North Korea with those lunch transporters as they look just like soviet ones.

Does it feel like 1940? Just ask your grand parents or your parents if they are still alive.

[BlackPeter]

So if they're not sending Swiss made ammo for the Gepard system, does Germany have its own manufactured ammo ?

Good question - was never an issue for the Bundeswehr :) ; I suppose the ammo comes with the (Swiss manufactured) guns - and while I am sure it is possible to get the same calibre ammunition from other places of the world, it might impact on the precision of the system ... Gepard has a hitrate of above 90 %, which is amazing for a system based on anti air guns. For the earlier systems (based on guns, not guided rockets) the hitrate is between 10 and ways below 30% ... requiring a lot of bullets per aircraft for one to hit.

Again - while I am sure that the Ukrainian army is able to learn to use this system (as anybody else) ... it will take more than a crash course. Quite different from any Sowjet based system which they used to get so far from the West.

[Davexl]

46m ago02.44
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-62689f558f08b4175f4ad426#block-62689f558f08b4175f4ad426)
Canada will also ramp up its military aid to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) with aims to send eight armoured vehicles manufactured by Roshel “as quickly as possible”, minister of defence Anita Anand announced.
Last week, Canada delivered M777 howitzers, associated ammunition, and Carl Gustaf weapons to Ukrainian Forces, Anand added.


1h ago02.23
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626897918f08398c3b2c409d#block-626897918f08398c3b2c409d)
Australia will send six M777 howitzers and ammunition to Ukraine as part of a $26.7m package in its response to “Russia’s brutal, unrelenting and illegal invasion”.

The six M777 155mm lightweight towed howitzers and howitzer ammunition will be sent to Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) following a request by the United States and the Ukrainian Ambassador to Australia to provide heavy artillery weapons and ammunition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“This additional military assistance will further support Ukraine in its response to Russia’s brutal, unrelenting and illegal invasion,” a statement from Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Defence Minster Peter Dutton said on Wednesday.

“The $26.7 million in new support for Ukraine takes Australia’s total contribution to Defensive Military Assistance to Ukraine to over $225 million.”

The M777 marks a “significant advance in Army’s capabilities”, according to the Australian army website.
The 155mm calibre weapon, which weighs 4,100kg and is 10.7 metres in deployed configuration, can fire two rounds per minute (sustained) or five rounds per minute (rapid) and its effective range is 24km for conventional rounds or 30km for improved rounds.


1h ago02.08
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6268946c8f08b4175f4ad3f4#block-6268946c8f08b4175f4ad3f4)
Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nauseda has urged German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to supply Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) with Leopard battle tanks, adding that Germany should speed up the delivery of weapons to Kyiv.

“I am not in the position of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. I can only say what I would do in his place: I would deliver tanks,” Nauseda was quoted by Funke media group as saying on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Germany announced its first delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine.

Nauseda said Germany was going in the right direction but if it wants to be consistent, it could not stop halfway.
“It is extremely important that Ukraine gets the military equipment it needs now. Not tomorrow or the day after, then it could be too late,” he added.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/491c9bb010c46f9870eaeb780fec38a39c26105a/0_75_3000_1800/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&

A Leopard 2 A7V battle tank from Bundeswehr training battalion 93 seen during an exercise at the training area in Munster, Germany. Photograph: Philipp Schulze/AP


2h ago01.52
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626890868f087151f7bb7d9a#block-626890868f087151f7bb7d9a)
British prime minister Boris Johnson has said that he does not expect Russian president Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

When asked during an interview with Britain’s Talk TV if he fears that Putin may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if Moscow faced defeat in its ongoing invasion, Johnson said Putin “has a lot of room for manoeuvre” and could back down.
Johnson said Putin had the “political space” to be able to back down and withdraw from Ukraine.

Putin has far more political space to back down, to withdraw.

There could come to a point, when he could say to the Russian people ‘the military technical operation that we launched in Ukraine has been accomplished, it’s been technically a success ... we had to go into to accomplish certain protectors to protect the rights of certain people that’s been done’ and I think he has far more political space than people worry about.”



Johnson added that Putin “has a lot of room for manoeuvre.”

[BlackPeter]

BP might be able to fill us in if the control boxes allowed for language selection.

...



Not in my time ... the main processor actually was mechanical, but a beauty : ). One of the reasons (for the mechanical processor) ... it still works fine after a NEMP (nuclear electromagnetic pulse). However not sure whether the system had some HW and SW upgrades over the last 45 years :p ;

[Waltzing]

"Gepard "

the germans manufacture and own their own version..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

[Waltzing]

"Not in my time"

your a veteran...

across the road lives a Brit who used to man air defence for Nato in the 1960's in germany.

Got straffed as a kid living in coastal UK W2 by the german luftwaffe.

least we forget.

[BlackPeter]

Up until recently buying defense stocks was something that I would never have considered due to ESG reasons but I think with what's going on now in Europe that's something I'm reconsidering. Bit late to the party so too speak but maybe not ? I think the percentage of GDP that all developed nations have to spend on defense is going to have to be radically recalibrated now and in the years ahead. I think there's an ETF for defense stocks. ITA or IT something, sorry I need to look into this more.

I have been very impressed using Raymarine systems on my boats over many years. I was looking at their latest autopilot systems the other day for a possible boat I'm looking at and noted their sensors are now nine axis, measuring yaw, lean, elevation and all sorts of other parmenter's. Pretty fancy stuff.
(Yes I know Raymarine was separated out as a separate company from Raytheon some years back)

Metrics for what is clearly a growth company don't look too bad to me https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RAYTHEON-TECHNOLOGIES-COR-4840/financials/
but its a big step buying defense stocks and I am not sure I am entirely comfortable with it...
Thoughts folks ?

Mmh ... maybe research some companies with the capability to do military stuff, but not limited to weapons and weapon systems. I hold shares in both

Siemens (as a young engineer I've been involved in developing some stuff for the army with them ... - I think they are now out of military development, but certainly capable to move back

as well as

MBT (their trucks are good - no matter what they move).

Both shares trade on the Frankfurt stock exchange, but probably on some other bourses as well.

[GTM 3442]

Yes Beagle, there are a few US defence-oriented ETFs, and ITA is one of them. Another is XAR.

But they tend to be in the "Aerospace/Defence" space, so you get a whole bunch of "aerospace" which is not directly defence-related.

Single companies like Raytheon or BAE Systems might fit the bill better, depending on who makes what. But supply chain issues. . .

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3465231-raytheon-ceo-warns-of-delays-in-stinger-missile-production/

[Davexl]

Upping the tempo...

5m ago05.34
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6268c0008f08b4175f4ad4e3#block-6268c0008f08b4175f4ad4e3)
US defence chief urges allies to 'move at the speed of war'

The US defence chief urges Ukraine’s allies to “move at the speed of war” to get more weapons to Kyiv, as reported by Associated Press.
The call comes after Russian forces rained fire on eastern and southern Ukraine, and fears that the conflict could cross the country’s borders.
For the second day, explosions rocked the separatist region of Trans-Dniester in neighbouring Moldova. A Russian missile also hit a strategic bridge linking Ukraine’s Odesa port region to neighbouring NATO member Romania, according to Ukrainian authorities.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin convened a meeting Tuesday of officials from about 40 countries at the US air base at Ramstein, Germany, and said more help is on the way.

We’ve got to move at the speed of war.”

He said he wanted officials to leave the meeting “with a common and transparent understanding of Ukraine’s near-term security requirements because we’re going to keep moving heaven and earth so that we can meet them.”
Austin added: “Certainly we don’t want to see any spillover” of the conflict.

We would like to make sure, again, that they don’t have the same type of capability to bully their neighbours that we saw at the outset of this conflict.”

[Beagle]

Yes Beagle, there are a few US defence-oriented ETFs, and ITA is one of them. Another is XAR.

But they tend to be in the "Aerospace/Defence" space, so you get a whole bunch of "aerospace" which is not directly defence-related.

Single companies like Raytheon or BAE Systems might fit the bill better, depending on who makes what. But supply chain issues. . .

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3465231-raytheon-ceo-warns-of-delays-in-stinger-missile-production/

Many thanks. Short term supply chain issues for sure but in the medium term I think Raytheon are going to have a vastly increased order book.
As you probably know there's a lot more to Raytheon than Stinger missiles. https://www.rtx.com/our-company/what-we-do/defense

[Davexl]

China’s transformed military must not be underestimated

https://www.smh.com.au/national/china-s-transformed-military-must-not-be-underestimated-20220425-p5ag15.html

[Davexl]

9m ago06.00

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live?page=with:block-6268cd978f08b4175f4ad519#block-6268cd978f08b4175f4ad519)Russian gas supplies have resumed to Poland, according to operator data.

Gas supplies under the Yamal contract to Poland edged up after dropping to zero earlier, data from the European Union network of gas transmission operators seen by Reuters showed on Wednesday.

Physical gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline from Belarus to Poland were at 3,449,688 kWh/hour at 6:22am CET (4:22am GMT).

[Waltzing]

MR B is on the money... The Big R has a big foot print from missile to research into chip products that first popped up in BYTE magazine when you had to import it into NZ via a book seller because it wasnt always in stock.

"Frankfurt stock exchange"

Frankfurt got a fantastic new concert venue and was looking forward to attending but we are still here in Paradise.

[Davexl]

7m ago09.29
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6268fe8e8f08398c3b2c42d2#block-6268fe8e8f08398c3b2c42d2)
Russia accused of blackmail after gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria halted

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Daniel-Boffey,-L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&
Daniel Boffey
Daniel Boffey in Brussels has this round-up of the situation in Europe regarding Russia switching off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-accused-of-blackmail-gazprom-gas-supplies-poland-bulgaria-halted):

Russia was accused of seeking to blackmail Europe as the energy giant Gazprom confirmed that it had halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria (https://www.theguardian.com/world/bulgaria), prompting crisis talks in capitals across Europe.

In a statement the Russian supplier said on Wednesday it acted in response to the failure by the two EU countries to make their payments in roubles.
“Gazprom has completely suspended gas supplies to Bulgargaz and PGNiG due to absence of payments in roubles,” a statement issued by the company said.

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, condemned the move, saying that fellow EU countries would come to Poland and Bulgaria’s aid.

She said: “The announcement by Gazprom that it is unilaterally stopping delivery of gas to customers in Europe is yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as an instrument of blackmail.
“This is unjustified and unacceptable. And it shows once again the unreliability of Russia as a gas supplier. We are prepared for this scenario. We are in close contact with all member states.”

Gazprom has also said it would stop transiting gas through the two EU countries to others such as Germany if it discovered any withdrawal of volumes from pipelines.

“Bulgaria and Poland (https://www.theguardian.com/world/poland) are transit states,” Gazprom said. “In the event of unauthorised withdrawal of Russian gas from transit volumes to third countries, supplies for transit will be reduced by this volume.”

The Polish gas company PGNiG confirmed that supply had stopped but a spokesperson said its clients were still getting the fuel in line with their needs.

Read more of Daniel Boffey’s report from Brussels here: Russia accused of blackmail after gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria halted

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-accused-of-blackmail-gazprom-gas-supplies-poland-bulgaria-halted)
Read more (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-accused-of-blackmail-gazprom-gas-supplies-poland-bulgaria-halted)

[Ricky-bobby]

Many thanks. Short term supply chain issues for sure but in the medium term I think Raytheon are going to have a vastly increased order book.
As you probably know there's a lot more to Raytheon than Stinger missiles. https://www.rtx.com/our-company/what-we-do/defense

LMT Lockheed Martin?.. they do very pricey fighter jets and sure they will do weapon systems also….

[Beagle]

LMT Lockheed Martin?.. they do very pricey fighter jets and sure they will do weapon systems also….

Thanks, yeah that's another one. I just don't know that I can get comfortable about making money from defense stocks AKA .weapons manufacturers.
Makes me a bit squeamish. I guess in one way it feels like a way I can push back against Putin's madness but in another it feels like any money I would make would be dirty money, blood money or is it ?. Winner sent me an interesting article the other day that basically was along the lines that its okay because to have any semblance of order in the world and a stable environment for people to thrive, defense spending is a necessary evil.

Not sure if I accept that argument or not. Breaking it down, for the environment to not be contaminated with war and its effects there must be deterrents, for society to function in democracy's around the world we need defense deterrents against aggressor dictatorships and to have orderly governance in democracies there is usually a military so maybe defense stocks are a necessary part of a somewhat stable and orderly world and are okay from an ESG perspective ? I don't know. I guess its okay, or is it ?

[Ricky-bobby]

I find what has happened in the Ukraine is despicable… one day they were going about their lives, the next the crap is getting bombed out of them. Pictures/videos of families getting displaced and torn apart for a totally non justified reason make me sick. The worse thing is the helplessness you feel watching it all unreel. I say good on uk and states for sending in weapons to let them at the very least defend themselves. I def don’t want to see a larger conflict that will drag the world in happen, so for now this is a good middle ground. I don’t own any weapon stocks and prob won’t buy any, but good to see them being put to good use against the Russians!

[Davexl]

3h ago19.00
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6269833f8f08ad1b94d6b7e0#block-6269833f8f08ad1b94d6b7e0)
Summary

It is 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand now:



Vladimir Putin has warned any countries attempting to interfere in Ukraine would be met with a “lightning-fast” response from Moscow. In an address to lawmakers in St Petersburg, the Russian president saidtroops would use “all the tools for this — ones that no one can brag about”. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-62696e228f0816bf5d41e778#block-62696e228f0816bf5d41e778)



Two American volunteers fighting in Ukraine were reportedly wounded by artillery fire near the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region. US army veterans Manus McCaffrey and Paul Gray (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626965008f08c0ca339aa494#block-626965008f08c0ca339aa494) were working together as a team targeting Russian tanks with Javelin anti-tank systems when they were injured, according to reports.



The United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, has arrived in Ukraine after meeting with Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in Moscow. Guterres will meet with the Ukrainian president, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-62696b098f08c0ca339aa4df#block-62696b098f08c0ca339aa4df)Volodymyr Zelensky, on Thursday, a UN spokesperson said.



Russia has warned other EU customers may be cut off from Russian natural gas supplies if they refuse to pay in roubles. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s comments (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-62692e1b8f087151f7bb82b3#block-62692e1b8f087151f7bb82b3) came after Russia halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-accused-of-blackmail-gazprom-gas-supplies-poland-bulgaria-halted) a move that European leaders denounced as “blackmail” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6268f5718f08398c3b2c42a0#block-6268f5718f08398c3b2c42a0), which the Kremlin later denied. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626921678f08b4175f4ad806#block-626921678f08b4175f4ad806) Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, described Russia’s move as “a direct attack” on Poland. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626929218f08398c3b2c44fb#block-626929218f08398c3b2c44fb)



A Ukrainian commander in the besieged city of Mariupol said there are more than 600 injured civilians and fighters in the Azovstal steel works. Serhiy Volyna, acting commander of the 36th marine brigade, said hundreds of civilians including children were living in unsanitary conditions and running out of food and water. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6269538a8f08ad1b94d6b557#block-6269538a8f08ad1b94d6b557) Officials earlier said Russian forces were again attacking the huge steel plant. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6268f5eb8f087151f7bb7fd6#block-6268f5eb8f087151f7bb7fd6)



The interior ministry of Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria issued a statement claiming it came under attack from Ukraine. It said drones were spotted and shots were fired near Kolbasna, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6268f9b08f08398c3b2c42b1#block-6268f9b08f08398c3b2c42b1)which it claims contains one of the largest ammunition dumps in Europe.



A woman was killed in the Russian shelling of a hospital in the east Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk today, the regional governor, Serhiy Gaidai, said. The hospital was one of only two still operational in the area (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626947fd8f08ad1b94d6b497#block-626947fd8f08ad1b94d6b497), he said, alongside video footage showing caved-in brick walls, broken hospital beds, and glass and rubble inside a building.



A former head of the Polish army has accused Boris Johnson of “tempting evil” by revealing that Ukrainian soldiers were being trained in Poland in how to use British anti-aircraft missiles before returning with them to Ukraine. Gen Waldemar Skrzypczak complained that a loose-lipped PM had revealed too much to the Russians (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6269692a8f08c0ca339aa4d3#block-6269692a8f08c0ca339aa4d3)and that his remarks risked the safety of the soldiers involved.



Belarus has moved to make attempted acts of terrorism punishable by the death penalty after activists tried to sabotage parts of the railway network to make it harder for Russia to deploy forces into Ukraine for its invasion. The Belarusian lower house of parliament approved the change to the criminal code (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-62693f628f08c0ca339aa24e#block-62693f628f08c0ca339aa24e), which now needs backing from the upper house and Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, before entering force.
The European Commission has proposed suspending import duties on all Ukrainian products to help the country’s economy during the war with Russia. The proposed one-year suspension, which would need to be approved by the European Parliament and its 27 member states (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626957d68f08c0ca339aa3a7#block-626957d68f08c0ca339aa3a7), comes a day after Britain announced it was dropping all tariffs on Ukrainian goods.



Russia’s foreign ministry announced sanctions on 287 members of Britain’s House of Commons, accusing them of “whipping up Russophobic hysteria”. The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, said those members who had been (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-62691cf88f08398c3b2c4465#block-62691cf88f08398c3b2c4465)hit with sanctions by Russia should regard it as “a badge of honour”.
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626931448f08ad1b94d6b38f#block-626931448f08ad1b94d6b38f)



A former US marine held in a Russian jail has been released in exchange for a Russian citizen held in US detention. US President Joe Biden said negotiations for the release of Trevor Reed, 30, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626938b88f0816bf5d41e474#block-626938b88f0816bf5d41e474)“required difficult decisions that I do not take lightly”.

A top executive at one of Russia’s largest private banks said he has quit his post and fled to Kyiv to fight for Ukraine. In an interview with the independent Russian news outlet The Insider, Ukrainian-born Igor Volobuev, vice president of Gazprombank, said he “could no longer be in Russia” and that he wants to “wash off” his Russian past. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626973cf8f08c0ca339aa555#block-626973cf8f08c0ca339aa555)

[Davexl]

2h ago20.05 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626993da8f0816bf5d41e8f1#block-626993da8f0816bf5d41e8f1)

Reuters is reporting that a giant steel plant in Kryvyi Rih, central Ukraine’s largest city, is slowly starting up again after shutting down at the start of the Russian invasion. Here’s more from Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/major-ukraine-steel-plant-ramps-back-up-russian-troops-are-close-2022-04-27/):

A giant steel plant in Ukraine’s central city of Kryvyi Rih is slowly resuming work, although the conflict in the country rages on, and Russian troops are only 60 kilometres (37 miles) away.


ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih - not the large steel plant in Mariupol where fighters are holed up - began restarting one of its blast furnaces on April 9, after shutting down all four when the February invasion began.
The plant, one of Ukraine’s largest, has further plans to restart a second furnace by May if the situation remains stable, according to CEO Mauro Longobardo.

“Sixty kilometres from here there are these (Russian) troops, so we don’t know what is going to happen today or tomorrow, and we hope that the Ukrainian army will be able to push them back,” Longobardo told Reuters on Wednesday.
“Of course we recognise the risk, and need to be realistic, because the plant cannot be hit only by the land troops, but it can be also hit by rockets,” he said. Any damage to the country’s railway infrastructure would also affect its ability to export, he said.

The plant and nearby mines operated by ArcelorMittal are functioning with around 94% of their original staff, the company said. Other workers have been called into military service or evacuated to western Ukraine.
According to staff, the last time the over-80-year-old plant shut down all blast furnaces was during World War Two, when the plant was destroyed.


And on the humanitarian front:


2h ago19.41
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-62698e508f08ad1b94d6b843#block-62698e508f08ad1b94d6b843)
The US government is providing $670m in food assistance to combat food insecurity due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US government announced (https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2022/04/27/biden-administration-announces-hundreds-millions-dollars-global) today. The money will come from the agriculture department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
The agencies are allocating $282m in US food commodities to six countries in the Horn of Africa: Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Yemen. Another $388m will go toward logistics, including transportation and shipping.

Drought in eastern Africa has caused severe food shortages (https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/apr/02/war-ukraine-affecting-food-supply-africa-middle-east-lebanon-somalia-egypt-oil-wheat) across the region, exacerbated by the impact of the war. The United Nations estimates (https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/20220323_RHPT_KeyMessages_HornOfAfricaDrought_Upda te.pdf) there are more than 13 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia facing food insecurity due to the drought.

[Davexl]

Western war aims are growing. But how much more will Nato commit to Ukraine?

Analysis: While the west toughens its stance over Putin’s invasion, it is rejecting his foreign minister’s claim that Nato is in a proxy war with Russia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/western-war-aims-are-growing-but-how-much-more-will-nato-commit-to-ukraine

[Davexl]

South Korea emerges as Quad alternative to India

Seoul poised to play a bigger role in US-led regional security policy and arms exports under President-elect Yoon by Richard Javad Heydarian
(https://asiatimes.com/author/richard-javad-heydarian/)
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/south-korea-emerges-as-quad-alternative-to-india/

[Davexl]

Why Taiwan must totally remain within the West's orbit:

Taiwan's share of contract chipmaking to hit 66% this year: report

TSMC set to widen lead over Samsung, Chinese rivals

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-s-share-of-contract-chipmaking-to-hit-66-this-year-report

[BlackPeter]

Why Taiwan must totally remain within the West's orbit:

Taiwan's share of contract chipmaking to hit 66% this year: report

TSMC set to widen lead over Samsung, Chinese rivals

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Taiwan-s-share-of-contract-chipmaking-to-hit-66-this-year-report

Well, yes - Taiwan certainly should stay on the list of free and independent countries. However, just looking at these numbers - there might be as well a point of reducing the Wests dependance on any single source of anything we need.

Just wondering why our greed always seems to block our ability to learn?

Already the bible put some 2000 years ago lots of emphasis on diversity. Relying on 2/3rds of our energy coming from autocratic bullies and relying on 2/3rds of our key components coming from one source which easily can be overwhelmed by another autocratic bully does not sound smart and certainly not like sensible diversification.

[GTM 3442]

Western war aims are growing. But how much more will Nato commit to Ukraine?

Analysis: While the west toughens its stance over Putin’s invasion, it is rejecting his foreign minister’s claim that Nato is in a proxy war with Russia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/western-war-aims-are-growing-but-how-much-more-will-nato-commit-to-ukraine


But it is a proxy war with The West.

Unfortunately, Russia has neglected to nominate a proxy.

The failures in the Russian command and control systems and in Russian military doctrine have demonstrated that the Russian military is not capable of fighting a 21st century war.

The question will become “Is The West capable of fighting a 19th or 20th century war?”.

Expect further nuclear sabre-rattling as the Russian regime does all it can to keep this a proxy war.

[Davexl]

Well, yes - Taiwan certainly should stay on the list of free and independent countries. However, just looking at these numbers - there might be as well a point of reducing the Wests dependance on any single source of anything we need.

Just wondering why our greed always seems to block our ability to learn?

Already the bible put some 2000 years ago lots of emphasis on diversity. Relying on 2/3rds of our energy coming from autocratic bullies and relying on 2/3rds of our key components coming from one source which easily can be overwhelmed by another autocratic bully does not sound smart and certainly not like sensible diversification.

Well yes, the point being that even though the 3 extra plants in the US is an attempt at diversity (at ~ $10 bn a piece), there are going to be 6 more in Taiwan!

[Waltzing]

The US and Europe need to relocate TW businesses and population and should be planning the biggest country relocation evacuation ever.


The UKE's are going to get a hammering in the south and east and need those big guns yesterday.

Boeing share are looking like they are also taking a hammering but increased defence spending and future wows should abate at some stage making BOE a recovery story down the track.

[Davexl]

More fine speeches by Liz Truss - seems to be doing a lot of that lately...

If Russia follows through on it's cutting gas to unfriendly countries not paying in Rubles, Germany and a number of others are going to be out of luck, achieving the West's aim by default, and that could trigger a major global downturn - yet another crisis we don't need...Yes it will hurt Russia but as for Europe ? (Hint LNG import terminals can't be built fast enough - or export terminals in Australia...)

12m ago18.44

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6269c23b8f08ad1b94d6b994#block-6269c23b8f08ad1b94d6b994)West must overhaul approach to international security: UK foreign secretary

The crisis in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) must be the “catalyst for change” to overhaul the west’s approach to international security, the UK’s foreign secretary Liz Truss has said.
Speaking (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretarys-mansion-house-speech-at-the-lord-mayors-easter-banquet-the-return-of-geopolitics) at Mansion House in London on Wednesday evening, Truss described Russia’s president Vladimir Putin as a “desperate rogue operator with no interest in international norms” and called upon the west to “dig deep” into their weapons inventories.

Faced with appalling barbarism and war crimes, which we’d hoped had been consigned to history, the free world has united behind Ukraine in its brave fight for freedom and self-determination.


Those who think they can win through oppression, coercion or invasion are being proved wrong by this new stand on global security – one that not only seeks to deter, but also ensures that aggressors fail.
We cannot be complacent – the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance.
But let’s be clear – if Putin succeeds there will be untold further misery across Europe and terrible consequences across the globe. We would never feel safe again.
So we must be prepared for the long haul. We’ve got to double down on our support for Ukraine. And we must also follow through on the unity shown in the crisis. We must reboot, recast and remodel our approach.”



Truss said recent events over the past months must be “a catalyst for wider change”.

Now we need a new approach, one that melds hard security and economic security, one that builds stronger global alliances and where free nations are more assertive and self-confident, one that recognises geopolitics is back.”

In the short term, the foreign secretary suggested the west should be “digging deep into our inventories [and] ramping up production” of heavy weapons, tanks and planes while sanctions against Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) need to go further to include cutting off oil and gas imports “once and for all”.

We are doubling down.

We will keep going further and faster to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine.
And this has to be a catalyst for wider change ...
The war in Ukraine is our war – it is everyone’s war because Ukraine’s victory is a strategic imperative for all of us.”

[Davexl]

And yet more...

10m ago23.59

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6269c77f8f08c0ca339aa7ca#block-6269c77f8f08c0ca339aa7ca)Inaction would be the 'greatest provocation', Truss says

Truss detailed what the new west’s approach to international security could look like: military strength, economic security and deeper global alliances.
“Firstly, we need to strengthen our collective defence,” she said, admitting that “the world should have done more to deter the invasion” and vowing to “never make that same mistake again”.

Some argue we shouldn’t provide heavy weapons for fear of provoking something worse. But my view, is that inaction would be the greatest provocation. This is a time for courage not for caution.”

Truss said the G7 group of leading industrialised nations should act as an “economic Nato” defending collective prosperity, while the western military alliance must be prepared to open its doors to countries such as Finland and Sweden.

At the same time, the UK needed to build a series of strong partnerships with like-minded countries around the world in a “network of liberty”.

In Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news), Finland and Sweden should, if they choose to join Nato, be integrated into the alliance “as soon as possible”, while states like Moldova and Georgia - which are not Nato members - should have the means to maintain their sovereignty and freedom.

Nato, which has traditionally been focused on the defence of Europe, needed to adopt a “global outlook”, working with allies like Japan and Australia to ensure the Pacific is protected and democracies like Taiwan are able to defend themselves.
Truss said they had to be prepared to stand up to “aggressors” who try to exploit their economic power as a “tool of foreign policy” to exert control and to coerce others.

Access to the global economy must depend on playing by the rules. There can be no more free passes.

We are showing this with the Russia-Ukraine conflict - Russia’s pass has been rescinded.

The G7 should act as an economic Nato, collectively defending our prosperity. If the economy of a partner is being targeted by an aggressive regime we should act to support them. All for one and one for all.”

The 3 Musketeers are back!

[Davexl]

3m ago00.11

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6269cb008f08c0ca339aa7dc#block-6269cb008f08c0ca339aa7dc)Truss singled out China, which has refused to condemn the invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), while increasing imports from Russia and commenting on “who should or shouldn’t be a Nato member”.

Countries must play by the rules.

And that includes China...
China is not impervious. They will not continue to rise if they do not play by the rules.
China needs trade with the G7. We represent around half of the global economy. And we have choices.
We have shown with Russia the kind of choices that we’re prepared to make when international rules are violated.”

[Waltzing]

Peace in our time. The politicians needed a Churchill back in 2014 to remind them and now its late 1939 - 40.

Fine words all nearly to late and the US needs along with europe to ramp up production. Lucky for them the aggressor has the same problems only more so.

as for CHMOA there reserve bank is now faced with a financial war on 2 fronts as their stock market tanks and they have to resort to infrastructure to boast GDP. The move to a consumer economy failed!

Buy US stocks that WILL recover even if they also have a hard landing.

[Davexl]

Peace in our time. The politicians needed a Churchill back in 2014 to remind them and now its late 1939 - 40.

Fine words all nearly to late and the US needs along with europe to ramp up production. Lucky for them the aggressor has the same problems only more so.

as for CHMOA there reserve bank is now faced with a financial war on 2 fronts as their stock market tanks and they have to resort to infrastructure to boast GDP. The move to a consumer economy failed!

Buy US stocks that WILL recover even if they also have a hard landing.


I suspect China will keep its nose clean - and will hopefully pull Russia into line as far as it's veiled nuclear threats against the West are concerned.

China doesn't need a nuclear war with the West either - trade trumps war for China's needs for it huge populace.
Depends how disparate Russia's pretensions are as a global power or whether they are already finished as one...

Hopefully global markets will remain intact for now...what does Bloomberg suggest ?
EU Tells Gas Companies Not to Bend to Russia’s Demand for Rubles (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/eu-tells-companies-paying-for-gas-in-rubles-breaches-sanctions?srnd=premium-asia)

"Gazprom PJSC (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GAZP:RM) turned off the taps to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday in a dramatic escalation, making good on a threat to cut supplies if payments aren’t made in rubles. Attention now turns to how big consumers Germany and Italy respond, with German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warning that the risk of more cutoffs must be taken seriously."

[Davexl]

35m ago00.31
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6269d0238f08ad1b94d6b9da#block-6269d0238f08ad1b94d6b9da)
Ukraine’s losses from war reach $600 billion, Zelenskiy says

The total losses inflicted upon Ukraine from the war have reached $600 billion, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (https://www.theguardian.com/world/volodymyr-zelenskiy) has said.
The president met with local and regional authorities on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine’s post war reconstruction. Zelenskiy said (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/sogodni-mi-mozhemo-ne-tilki-uspishno-zahishati-ukrayinu-j-pr-74625):

Preliminary estimates of Ukraine’s losses from this war reach $600 billion today. More than 32 million square meters of living space, more than 1,500 educational facilities and more than 350 medical facilities have been destroyed or damaged.


Economic entities suffered huge losses – hundreds of enterprises have been destroyed. About 2,500km of roads and almost 300 bridges have been ruined or damaged. And it’s not just statistics. This is Mariupol, this is Volnovakha, this is Okhtyrka, this is Chernihiv, this is Borodianka and dozens or dozens of our cities, towns and villages.”



According to the president, more than 11.5 million Ukrainians have fled their homes due to the fighting, and about 5 million of them have gone abroad with 95% of migrants already wanting to return home.
Damage caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure as a result of the war has reached almost $90 billion, the country’s minister of infrastructure added.

[Davexl]

Wiggle room...

9m ago01.32

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6269dfd78f0816bf5d41eaa8#block-6269dfd78f0816bf5d41eaa8)Uniper, Germany’s top importer of Russian gas, will transfer payments for Russian gas to a Russian bank and no longer to a Europe-based bank, newspaper Rheinische Post is reporting.

“The plan is to make our payments in euros to an account in Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia),” the daily paper cited a Uniper spokesperson as saying.
Even though Russia has demanded rouble payments for its gas, the payments system it has proposed foresees the use of accounts at Gazprombank, which would convert payments made in euros or dollars into roubles.
This offers wiggle room some countries could try to use to keep buying Russian gas against western currencies.

The European Commission said last week that if buyers of Russian gas confirmed payment was complete once they had deposited euros, as opposed to later when the euros have been converted to roubles, that would not breach sanctions.

Uniper said it considered Russian gas flows into Germany secure for now despite a halt in supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as transit volumes headed elsewhere would be unaffected.

[Panda-NZ-]

Remake the UN and kick out Russia.

They should have already been, relying on the legacy of a more powerful Soviet union.

[Davexl]

2h ago04.34

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/27/russia-ukraine-war-blasts-heard-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-truss-to-call-on-ukraines-allies-to-double-down-on-military-aid-live?page=with:block-626a09688f08c0ca339aa944#block-626a09688f08c0ca339aa944)https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/12/27/Fiona_Harvey,_R.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&Fiona Harvey

Russia has nearly doubled its revenues from selling fossil fuels to the EU during the two months of war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), benefiting from soaring prices even as volumes have been reduced, Guardian reporter Fiona Harvey writes for us today.

Russia has received about €62bn from exports of oil, gas and coal in the two months since the invasion began, according to an analysis of shipping movements and cargos by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

For the EU, imports were about €44bn for the past two months, compared with about €140bn for the whole of last year, or roughly €12bn a month.

The findings demonstrate how Russia has continued to benefit from its stranglehold over Europe’s energy supply, even while governments have frantically sought to prevent Vladimir Putin (https://www.theguardian.com/world/vladimir-putin) using oil and gas as an economic weapon.

[Panda-NZ-]

Vladimir Putin’s health under fresh scrutiny as video shows him ‘shaking uncontrollably’

The footage shows him seemingly suffering hand and leg tremors as he welcomed Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to a meeting in mid-February, just days before he launched his invasion of Ukraine. Mr Putin is seen holding one hand to his chest while the other is in a fist.

As his hand begins to tremor uncontrollably, Mr Putin pulls it close to his chest, in an apparent attempt to stop the shaking. However, as he walks toward his longtime ally, he wobbles as his leg also tremors.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-health-concerns-shaking-uncontrollably-b2066674.html

[Waltzing]

Parkinson's.

[moka]

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/04/08/noam-chomskys-nuclear-war-fear-fight-to-last-ukrainian-or-choose-macrons-dialogue-path/
(https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2022/04/08/noam-chomskys-nuclear-war-fear-fight-to-last-ukrainian-or-choose-macrons-dialogue-path/)
"Washington's position now is to fight to the last Ukrainian," Noam Chomsky said. "Not my words, I'm quoting one of the most astute and respected members of the diplomatic service, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Chas Freeman.
"He has described in some detail US strategy, and in his words, it's fight to the last Ukraine but don't have a negotiated settlement. Don't offer a way out — that's US policy."

Chomsky regards Mr Biden's decision last September to issue a statement on a Strategic Defence Framework for Ukraine, offering advanced weapons, joint exercises and increased training for the Kyiv military, as a potential trigger.
"It could be that this was what finally induced Russia to make the dangerous, criminal decision to go to direct invasion," he said.

From the great unravelling of the 30-year post Cold War entente to the outbreak of conflict in Georgia in 2008 and in Ukraine in 2014, when Russia secured enclaves of Russian speakers in both countries, the deterioration in understanding with Moscow has been slow but inexorable.
What Prof Chomsky now fears is a literal endgame for all organised humanity.
"One possibility is to move on to facilitate the destruction of Ukraine and possibly a nuclear war," he said.

[Waltzing]

what a load of rubbish.

Putin would have moved to take all of ukraine in 2014 but was not ready.

what a load of junk thinking from the man.

idiots like him would have given nuclear weapons to mars if it was inhabited to balance out the solar system political space scape.

total rubbish.

hes now as dangerous as any old communist who needs to move into a rest home and stay there.

[GTM 3442]

The view from left field:

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/27/trained-russian-navy-dolphins-are-protecting-black-sea-naval-base-satellite-photos-show#more-93903

[Bjauck]

...
Chomsky regards Mr Biden's decision last September to issue a statement on a Strategic Defence Framework for Ukraine, offering advanced weapons, joint exercises and increased training for the Kyiv military, as a potential trigger.
"It could be that this was what finally induced Russia to make the dangerous, criminal decision to go to direct invasion," he said.... I guess Chomsky thinks Ukraine should have remained inert after the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing Russian backed separatist activity in Donetsk and Luhansk? Ukraine's seeking assistance from America was a response to Russian activity and not a trigger.

[ananda77]

what a load of rubbish.

Putin would have moved to take all of ukraine in 2014 but was not ready.

what a load of junk thinking from the man.

idiots like him would have given nuclear weapons to mars if it was inhabited to balance out the solar system political space scape.

total rubbish.

hes now as dangerous as any old communist who needs to move into a rest home and stay there.

I wonder what happened to Western Europe's economic strategy to seek prosperity by mutual trade and investment with China and Russia. Obviously not something, as we can see now, acceptable to the US long term campaign to control the world though currency, oil and food policy. As a result, a new cold war started with America’s plan to block Nord Stream 2 and so far escalated to the NATO-Russia Proxy War...to the last Ukrainian soldier standing.
Hardly mentioned in Western news is the eight year old War in Donbass when Kiev started it's anti-terrorist operations in Donbass leading to the Russian invasion of Ukraine today.

[Panda-NZ-]

I guess Chomsky thinks Ukraine should have remained inert after the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing Russian backed separatist activity in Donetsk and Luhansk? Ukraine's seeking assistance from America was a response to Russian activity and not a trigger.

Plus russia has lied on numerous occasions.

We all heard how they were never going to invade Ukraine.

So everything they use to justify their war is simply misinformation.

[Panda-NZ-]

If Russians go nuclear they would be signing their own death certificates, say military analysts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn-i89GReMI

Problem is some of the top leadership may be dying anyway if the health issue rumours are true.

They clearly dont care about their own people much..

[Davexl]

1h ago23.12 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626b066d8f08581273d1b96c#block-626b066d8f08581273d1b96c)
Today so far


Russia attacked western Kyiv with two cruise missiles, as the UN secretary general António Guterres visited the Ukrainian capital, a move that was hard to see as anything other than Moscow mocking the institution. Two loud explosions rocked Kyiv on Thursday evening, after Guterres visited the site of massacres and mass graves on the city’s outskirts, and met with Volodymyr Zelenskiy.



In his latest address, Zelenskiy addressed the strike on Kyiv, saying that Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) could not let its guard down. “Moscow claimed they had allegedly ceased fire in Mariupol. But the bombing of the defenders of the city continues,” he said. “This is a war crime committed by the Russian military literally in front of the whole world.”



A British citizen has been killed in Ukraine and a second is missing, the Foreign Office has confirmed, amid reports that both were volunteers who had gone to fight in the country. The Briton who died is understood to be Scott Sibley, a former British soldier who had served in Iraq (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626acc6d8f089c79bcff9b56#block-626acc6d8f089c79bcff9b56).



Russian forces have been hitting the Azovstal steelworks in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol with the heaviest strikes yet, a local official said.
Meanwhile, a senior US defence official said the US has seen indications that some Russian forces are leaving Mariupol (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626ab6488f08581273d1b654#block-626ab6488f08581273d1b654)and moving towards the north-west, even as fighting for the Ukrainian port city continues.



The UN secretary general, Guterres, said the UN is “doing everything possible” to evacuate people from the Azovstal steelworks in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. At a joint press conference with Guterres, President Zelenskiy said he believes that a “successful result” is still possible “in terms of deblocking” the Mariupol plant. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626ac98a8f089c79bcff9b1e#block-626ac98a8f089c79bcff9b1e)



The United Nations (https://www.theguardian.com/world/unitednations) General Assembly will vote on May 11 on a country to replace Russia on the world organization’s leading human rights body following its suspension over allegations of horrific rights violations by Russian soldiers in Ukraine, The Associated Press reports.Assembly spokeswoman Paulina Kubiak said Thursday that the Czech Republic was the only candidate for the seat on the 47-member Human Rights Council.



Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, said investigators have identified more than 8,000 cases of suspected war crimes. The alleged crimes documented include “killing civilians, bombing of civilian infrastructure, torture” and “sexual crimes” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626ac6a88f08fff86b73828e#block-626ac6a88f08fff86b73828e)that are being reported in the “occupied territory of Ukraine”, Venediktova said.



Joe Biden has called for a giant $33bn package of military and economic aid to Ukraine, more than doubling the level of US assistance to date. The president asked Congress to give immediate approval for spending (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/28/joe-biden-ukraine-military-aid-us-congress)that would include over $20bn in military aid, involving everything from heavy artillery and armoured vehicles to greater intelligence sharing, cyberwarfare tools and many more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.



The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has described the war in Ukraine as “an absurdity” in the 21st century on a visit to the scene of civilian killings outside Kyiv. Guterres was touring Borodianka, where Russian forces are accused of massacring civilians (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/21/russia-using-banned-weapons-to-kill-ukrainian-civilians-pictures-suggest) before their withdrawal, on his first visit to Ukraine since the start of the invasion on 24 February, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/un-secretary-general-describes-war-in-ukraine-as-absurdity-in-21st-century)before talks with Volodymyr Zelenskiy.



The Kremlin said (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626a7e658f08cd41f91fbd53#block-626a7e658f08cd41f91fbd53) the “pumping” of western arms supplies to Ukraine posed a threat to the security of the European continent. On Wednesday, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said countries opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must “ramp up” military production to help Ukraine, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/uk-leading-g7-allies-to-weaken-putins-military-arsenal) including by supplying heavy weapons, tanks and planes



Moldova’s deputy prime minister, Nicu Popescu, said the country was facing “a very dangerous new moment” as unnamed forces were seeking to stoke tensions after a series of explosions in the breakaway region of Transnistria this week. Popescu said his government had seen “a dangerous deterioration of the situation” in recent days (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/moldova-facing-very-dangerous-moment-amid-fears-it-could-be-drawn-into-ukraine-war)amid attacks in the breakaway region.



The European Union will consider energy companies complying with Moscow’s requirement to open a second account, with Gazprombank in roubles, as a violation of sanctions against Russia, EU officials warned. The EU “cannot accept” that payments in euros for Russian gas (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626a74918f08b3d5ecf31817#block-626a74918f08b3d5ecf31817)are considered completed by Moscow only after they are converted into roubles, the official said.

[Davexl]

3m ago00.12
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626b1edb8f08581273d1b9f9#block-626b1edb8f08581273d1b9f9)
UK to send 8,000 soldiers to eastern Europe on expanded exercises

About 8,000 British army troops will take part in exercises across eastern Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) to combat Russian aggression in one of the largest deployments since the cold war.
Dozens of tanks will be deployed to countries ranging from Finland to North Macedonia this summer under plans that have been enhanced since Russia invaded Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

Joining them will be tens of thousands of troops from Nato and the Joint Expeditionary Force alliance, which includes Finland and Sweden.
The Ministry of Defence (https://www.theguardian.com/uk/ministry-of-defence) said the action had been long planned and had been enhanced in response to Russia’s invasion of its neighbour in late February.
The UK deployment is expected to build to a peak of about 8,000 personnel operating in mainland Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) between April and June.

[Davexl]

Bit more detail...

3h ago21.36
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626afa2d8f08fff86b738478#block-626afa2d8f08fff86b738478)
The US congress has approved a measure extending a World War II-era military lend-lease program to send aid to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).
The AP reports: .

The measure, which passed by an overwhelming 417-10 vote, now goes to the White House for President Joe Biden to sign into law.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Gregory Meeks of New York said with unified support from the US Congress, “Ukraine will win.”
The bill is the latest from Congress, which is steadily churning out resolutions and resources to counter Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-bulgaria-nato-138362dbd31e65e7c06f91760bee75ce)and help the country and its President Volodymyr Zelenskiy fight back. The Biden administration announced Thursday it will seek another $30 billion (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-business-europe-economy-5656f58ae48cb3cf37da0d0c431a15b8) from Congress in military and humanitarian aid, on top of the nearly $14 billion Congress approved last month to help Ukraine fight the war.

Months in the making, the bipartisan bill was first introduced in January as part of the U.S.’s posture of deterrence to warn off Putin’s aggression towards Ukraine.
The measure would update the 1941 legislation Franklin D. Roosevelt signed into law to help allies fight Nazi Germany. At the time, the then-U.S. president ushered the Lend-Lease Act through Congress, responding to British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s appeal for aid, even as America initially remained neutral in the war, according to the U.S. National Archives.

Biden is expected to sign the bill into law, giving the administration greater leeway to send military equipment to Ukraine and neighboring allies in Eastern Europe.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also gave nod to the moment, saying the war is a battle between democracy and autocracy, and echoed Roosevelt’s call on Americans to provide the fuel to keep light of democracy burning.

“Our task today remains the same,” she said. “The Ukrainian people are making the fight for all of us.”

[Davexl]

The machinations of replacing those Javelins...

U.S. Missiles Sent to Ukraine Aren’t Easily Replaced, Panel Tells Senate

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/27/u-s-missiles-sent-to-ukraine-arent-easily-replaced-panel-tells-senate?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=f48bcabee1-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-f48bcabee1-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=f48bcabee1&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

(https://news.usni.org/2022/04/27/u-s-missiles-sent-to-ukraine-arent-easily-replaced-panel-tells-senate?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=f48bcabee1-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-f48bcabee1-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=f48bcabee1&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89)"The United States has shipped about a third of its existing arsenal of Stinger anti-air and Javelin anti-armor missiles to Ukraine – systems that are not quickly replaced – two experts on Pentagon buying said Tuesday."

"Lord suggested another option to rebuild necessary weapons stocks quickly would be to ease regulations and laws covering manufacturing by trusted allies like Australia."




(https://news.usni.org/2022/04/27/u-s-missiles-sent-to-ukraine-arent-easily-replaced-panel-tells-senate?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=f48bcabee1-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-f48bcabee1-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=f48bcabee1&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89)

[Davexl]

China Scores a Victory In the New Battle of the South Pacific

James Stavridis

A murky defense pact between the Solomon Islands and Beijing shows how complacency threatens U.S. and Australian naval dominance.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-28/china-beats-u-s-australia-in-new-battle-for-the-solomon-islands?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=220428&utm_campaign=author_15333522

[Davexl]

49m ago03.46

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626b501b8f08fff86b73865c#block-626b501b8f08fff86b73865c)Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Finland and Sweden would be “warmly welcomed” should they decide to join the 30-nation military organisation and any membership process could “go quickly”.

“It’s their decision,” Stoltenberg said. “But if they decide to apply, Finland and Sweden will be warmly welcomed, and I expect that process to go quickly.”

He gave no precise time frame, but did say that the two could expect some protection should Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) try to intimidate them from the time their membership applications are made until they formally join.

Stoltenberg said he’s “confident that there are ways to bridge that interim period in a way which is good enough and works for both Finland and Sweden.”

Nato’s collective security guarantee ensures that all member countries must come to the aid of any ally under attack. Stoltenberg added that many Nato allies have now pledged and provided a total of at least $8 billion in military support to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

[Davexl]

2h ago02.59

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626b3d4d8f08581273d1bab9#block-626b3d4d8f08581273d1bab9)Ukraine’s president Zelenskiy has spoken of how Russian troops came within minutes of finding him and his family in the first hours of the war in an interview with Time (https://time.com/6171277/volodymyr-zelensky-interview-ukraine-war/) magazine.

Reporter Simon Shuster interviewed the Ukrainian leader while spending two weeks in the presidential compound in Kyiv earlier this month.
On the first day of war, Shuster writes that officials attempted to seal the compound “with whatever they could find” as Ukrainian troops fought the Russians in the streets.

“Russian troops came within minutes of finding him and his family in the first hours of the war, their gunfire once audible inside his office walls,” he added.
The military reportedly informed Zelenskiy that Russian strike teams had parachuted into Kyiv to kill or capture him and his family.

As night fell that first evening, gunfights broke out around the government quarter. Guards inside the compound shut the lights and brought bulletproof vests and assault rifles for Zelenskiy and about a dozen of his aides. Only a few of them knew how to handle the weapons,” Shuster said.

Russian troops made two attempts to storm the compound, Oleksiy Arestovych, a veteran of Ukraine’s military intelligence service and a senior presidential advisor, told the reporter. Zelenskiy later added that his wife and children were still there at the time.

The US offered to evacuate the President and his team and help them set up a government in exile, most likely in eastern Poland. Speaking on a secure landline with the Americans, Zelenskiy responded: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

As the war rages on two months later and casualties rise, the president said he has aged in the face of such brutality.

I’ve gotten older. I’ve aged from all this wisdom that I never wanted. It’s the wisdom tied to the number of people who have died, and the torture the Russian soldiers perpetrated...To be honest, I never had the goal of attaining knowledge like that...

People see this war on Instagram, on social media. When they get sick of it, they will scroll away.”

[Davexl]

3h ago02.08 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626b3a7d8f08581273d1baac#block-626b3a7d8f08581273d1baac)

Summary

If you have just joined our live coverage of the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), here is a quick re-cap of where things currently stand.



Russia attacked western Kyiv with two cruise missiles (https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/apr/28/kyiv-blasts-immediate-aftermath-of-cruise-missiles-video) during a visit by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to the Ukrainian capital (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/russia-kyiv-cruise-missile-strike-biden-guterres). Two loud explosions rocked Kyiv on Thursday evening after Guterres visited the site of massacres and mass graves on the city’s outskirts. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the strikes happened “immediately after” his talks with the UN chief.
Ten were injured in the blast, which hit the central Shevchenkivskyi district, and three people were hospitalised, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service. A 25-storey residential building was partially destroyed.
In his latest address, Zelenskiy addressed the strike on Kyiv, saying that Ukraine could not let its guard down. “Moscow claimed they had allegedly ceased fire in Mariupol. But the bombing of the defenders of the city continues,” he said. “This is a war crime committed by the Russian military literally in front of the whole world.”
The UK will send 8,000 soldiers to eastern Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/apr/28/uk-to-send-8000-soldiers-to-eastern-europe-on-expanded-exercises)on expanded exercises to combat Russian aggression in one of the largest deployments since the cold war. Dozens of tanks will be deployed to countries ranging from Finland to North Macedonia between April and June.
Joe Biden has called for a giant $33bn package of military and economic aid to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/28/joe-biden-ukraine-military-aid-us-congress), more than doubling the level of US assistance to date. The package would include over $20bn in military aid, including heavy artillery and armoured vehicles, greater intelligence sharing, cyberwarfare tools and many more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. “We’re not attacking Russia. We’re helping Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression,” Biden said.
A British citizen has been killed in Ukraine and a second is missing, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/briton-killed-ukraine-russia-war) the Foreign Office has confirmed, amid reports that both were volunteers who had gone to fight in the country. The Briton who died was understood to be Scott Sibley, a former British soldier who had served in Iraq.
Russian forces have been hitting the Azovstal steelworks in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol with the heaviest strikes yet, a local official said.
Meanwhile, a senior US defence official said the US had seen indications that some Russian forces were leaving Mariupol (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626ab6488f08581273d1b654#block-626ab6488f08581273d1b654)and moving towards the north-west, even as fighting for the Ukrainian port city continued.
The UN secretary general, Guterres, said the UN was “doing everything possible” to evacuate people from the Azovstal steelworks in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. “They need an escape route out of the apocalypse,” Guterres said. Zelenskiy added that he believed that a “successful result” was still possible “in terms of deblocking” the Mariupol plant.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it was probing a report that a missile had flown directly over a nuclear power station, adding it would be “extremely serious” if true. The IAEA director general, Rafael Grossi, said Kyiv had formally told the agency the missile flew over the plant in southern Ukraine on 16 April. The facility is near the city of Yuzhnoukrainsk, 350km (220 miles) south of Kyiv.
The UN general assembly will vote on 11 May on a country to replace Russia on the world organisation’s leading human rights body after its suspension over allegations of rights violations by Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Assembly spokeswoman Paulina Kubiak said the Czech Republic was the only candidate for the seat on the 47-member human rights council.
Ukraine’s prosecutor general has named 10 Russian soldiers allegedly involved in human rights abuses (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/ukraine-names-10-russian-soldiers-in-alleged-human-rights-abuses-in-bucha) during the month-long occupation of Bucha (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/04/why-did-they-do-this-to-us-buchas-survivors-come-out-of-hiding). There were 8,653 alleged war crimes under investigation, according to the prosecutor’s office (https://twitter.com/GP_Ukraine/status/1519553316128178181).
Guterres described the war as “an absurdity” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/un-secretary-general-describes-war-in-ukraine-as-absurdity-in-21st-century) in the 21st century on a visit to the scene of civilian killings outside Kyiv. Guterres was touring Borodianka, where Russian forces are accused of massacring civilians (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/21/russia-using-banned-weapons-to-kill-ukrainian-civilians-pictures-suggest) before their withdrawal, on his first visit to Ukraine since the start of the invasion.
Moldova’s deputy prime minister, Nicu Popescu, said the country was facing “a very dangerous new moment” as unnamed forces were seeking to stoke tensions after a series of explosions in the breakaway region of Transnistria this week. Popescu said his government had seen “a dangerous deterioration of the situation” in recent days (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/moldova-facing-very-dangerous-moment-amid-fears-it-could-be-drawn-into-ukraine-war)amid attacks in the region.
The European Union will consider it as a violation of sanctions if European energy companies comply with Moscow’s requirement to open a payment account in roubles with Gazprombank, EU officials warned. The EU “cannot accept” that payments in euros for Russian gas (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626a74918f08b3d5ecf31817#block-626a74918f08b3d5ecf31817)are considered completed by Moscow only after they are converted into roubles, an official said.
Nato said it was ready to maintain its support for Ukraine in the war against Russia for years, including help for Kyiv to shift from Soviet-era weapons to modern western arms and systems. “We need to be prepared for the long term,” Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary general, told a summit in Brussels. “There is absolutely the possibility that this war will drag on and last for months and years.”

[Davexl]

7m ago05.12 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626b635e8f089c79bcff9f5d#block-626b635e8f089c79bcff9f5d)

UN chief admits Security Council failed to prevent and end war

The UN Secretary General has criticised his own organisation’s Security Council while on visit to Kyiv.
During a press conference (https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2022-04-28/opening-remarks-press-conference-president-of-ukraine) with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Antonio Guterres said the council had failed to prevent or end the war in Ukraine.

Let me be very clear. The Security Council failed to do everything in its power to prevent and end this war.


This is a source of great disappointment, frustration and anger.”



Guterres pledged that he would “boost our efforts across the board” and expand the council’s cash assistance – distributing $100 million per month, reaching 1.3 million people by May and covering 2 million by August.
The 15-member UN Security Council is specifically tasked with ensuring global peace and security and has faced criticism for failing to act since Russia’s invasion began in February.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d96f832ca8f8de6dfb1954dfcac262a37d5d0b60/0_100_3000_1800/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the council had failed to prevent or end the war in Ukraine. Photograph: Ukraine Presidency/ZUMA Press Wire Service/REX/Shutterstock


20m ago23.59
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-warns-of-lightning-fast-retaliation-if-west-intervenes-war-has-cost-ukraine-600bn-zelenskiy-says-live?page=with:block-626b570b8f08fff86b73867d#block-626b570b8f08fff86b73867d)
Russia is preventing wounded Ukrainian fighters from being evacuated from the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol because it wants to capture them, the local officials say.

Reuters reports Pavlo Kyrylenko as telling a briefing:

They (want to) use the opportunity to capture the defenders of Mariupol, one of the main (elements) of whom are the... Azov regiment.


Therefore the Russian side is not agreeing to any evacuation measures regarding wounded (Ukrainian) troops.”



Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had been quite clear that while civilians could leave the plant, the defenders had to lay down their arms, Tass news agency said.
“What could be the topic of negotiations in this case?” the agency quoted him as saying.

Mariupol city council said about 100,000 city residents were “in mortal danger” because of Russian shelling and unsanitary conditions. It said the shortage of drinking water and food was “catastrophic”.

[Davexl]

More detail...

Russia Crisis Military Assessment: The race to resupply Ukraine

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-crisis-military-assessment-the-race-to-resupply-ukraine/?mkt_tok=NjU5LVdaWC0wNzUAAAGEEeMWgoyn7ycFSQwiQ3RUp 7-6G2PMkn7UuLDBmRyl8nGnw16ok5aF4Du5Ksbsi3duWsgrEMFqU rvE5JElytdZfP921LCmeATbmg8RlEXClw

[Davexl]

The West is on the Up...

On a knife-edge: China is facing double disaster between COVID and Putin
- Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/on-a-knife-edge-china-is-facing-double-disaster-between-covid-and-putin-20220429-p5ah24.html

Excerpt:

"China should abandon all illusions that the West is in terminal decline, or that a new world order of authoritarian regimes is dawning.

It should ditch Vladimir Putin immediately. The country should not be tainted by the retrograde adventurism of a loser. Beijing should instead seek a new concordat with Washington, acting as a conciliatory stakeholder power."

[Davexl]

More discord bubbling away...

Solomon Islands prime minister lashes Australia over AUKUS security pact

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/solomon-islands-prime-minister-lashes-australia-over-aukus-security-pact-20220429-p5ah7x.html

[Davexl]

Serious food for thought at this time...

World War III is far more likely than anyone is prepared to admit

https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300576381/world-war-iii-is-far-more-likely-than-anyone-is-prepared-to-admit

[Davexl]

3h ago07.01 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626b78cf8f08fff86b738767#block-626b78cf8f08fff86b738767)

In case you missed our earlier report, the world’s largest security body has said it is officially winding up its observer mission in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) after eight years, after Russia vetoed its extension.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) (OSCE) said it would “take immediate steps” to close the mission after members failed to find a way around Russia’s objections during a meeting last month, AFP reports.
Poland’s foreign minister, Zbigniew Rau, whose country holds the rotating OSCE chairmanship, said the organisation had tried all options but “the position of the Russian Federation left us with no choice”.

The Vienna-based OSCE’s mission to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) began in 2014 after Russia-backed separatists launched an insurgency in the east. The organisation was the only international body monitoring the conflict on the ground, according to AFP.

OSCE monitors were largely withdrawn from the country following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February. But administrative staff were left behind, and four of them have since been detained.

The OSCE secretary general, Helga Maria Schmid, said the organisation would continue to push for an “end to the detentions, intimidation, and disinformation that are so dangerous for our national mission members”.

[Davexl]

1h ago08.43
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626b96a58f089c79bcffa0cf#block-626b96a58f089c79bcffa0cf)
China’s ministry of foreign affairs has accused Nato of messing up Europe and stirring up conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region, after the UK’s foreign secretary told China (https://www.theguardian.com/world/china) it should “play by the rules”.

In a speech at Mansion House in London on Wednesday, Liz Truss renewed calls to boost Nato (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/uk-leading-g7-allies-to-weaken-putins-military-arsenal) in the wake of the Ukraine war. Truss also delivered a direct warning to China. “Countries must play by the rules. And that includes China,” she said.

On Thursday, Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for China’s ministry of foreign affairs, dismissed Truss’s comments and accused Nato (https://www.theguardian.com/world/nato) of demanding other countries abide by basic norms while it has “wantonly waged wars and dropped bombs in sovereign states, killing and displacing innocent civilians”.

“Nato, a military organisation in the North Atlantic, has in recent years come to the Asia-Pacific region to throw its weight around and stir up conflicts,” Wang said.
“Nato has messed up Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news). Is it now trying to mess up the Asia-Pacific and even the world?”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/china-says-nato-is-messing-up-europe-and-warns-over-role-in-asia-pacific

[Davexl]

48m ago09.20 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626b9d948f08581273d1bd7c#block-626b9d948f08581273d1bd7c)

Ukraine says 'operation is planned today to get civilians out of' Azovstal plant

Ukraine hopes on Friday to evacuate civilians who are holed up in a vast steel works with the last fighters defending the southern city of Mariupol.

“An operation is planned today to get civilians out of the plant,” president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s office said without giving details.

There have been regular announcements from both Ukraine and Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) that humanitarian corridors would be set up, but as yet none have succeeded. Russia did not immediately comment on the Ukrainian presidency’s remarks.

“We are depending on the goodwill of all parties and we are in this together,” United Nations crisis coordinator Amin Awad told Reuters this morning.

[Bjauck]

The horrible story of a civilian hospital employee dragged by Russian soldiers from the basement of his house near Kyiv. He was tortured, taken to Russia, mistreated and used for prisoner exchange. So many Russian war crimes just in this one man's story...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61249158

[Panda-NZ-]

Russian soldiers don't fare much better.

I imagine the deserters will be thrown into that mobile crematorium truck.

[ananda77]

Colonel Wilkerson was the Chief of Staff for Colin Powell at the State Department. He worked with Powell at the Joint Chiefs. A conversation with Jay Paul - the Analysis.news.com

https://podbay.fm/p/theanalysisnews/e/1651261392

Paul Jay
One more thing about Putin, which is part of the story. When he was asked, I think, by NBC about if there was a limited first strike against Russia with a nuclear weapon and you knew that your retaliation second strike would cause the end of the world, would you do it? He says, well, what’s the point of a world without a Russia? Well, I think the American elites have the same feeling. What’s the point of a world without an American-dominated world?

Lawrence Wilkerson
You would have no trouble whatsoever in convincing me that there could be a confluence of leadership that would start a world Holocaust. No difficulty convinced me at all.

I’ve been there. I’ve seen how these people make decisions. I’ve seen how irrational they can be in their decision-making. I’ve seen how self-interested they can be in their decision-making. Frankly, Paul, I’ve seen how stupid they are. I do mean that, how stupid they are. We do not elect great leaders. Russia does not have the privilege of saying it elects great leaders either.

As a matter of fact, I firmly believe that the leadership in the West right now, with some exceptions, is one of the worst sets of leadership that we’ve ever had.

That said, I think the situation is made doubly dangerous by the fact that we have so many interests playing around in Ukraine right now in things that have nothing to do with Ukraine. So many people, mainly because of the media in every major capital in the world, are teaching the people this and know nothing of this. They think it’s all about white Christians being abused by Slavic raiders, whatever their image is. They think that’s what it’s all about.

That is not what it’s about. It’s not about NATO. It’s not about NATO membership. It’s not like Finland and Sweden, and Norway becoming members of NATO. It’s about none of that.

It’s about interests that are profiting from what’s going on, either politically, financially, economically, or geopolitically. That latter being the most dangerous one of them all. This all involves bringing Putin down, destabilizing Russia, and clearing that flank for a war with China. That’s the grand strategic thing that’s driving this. They do not give a dang about a single baby, a single woman, or a single person in Ukraine. They will use every one of them if they can or have to get to Putin and to get to their ultimate objective. That’s why this is so dangerous.

Paul Jay
I’d only add to that a lot of the same motivations on the Russian side.

excerpts of the conversation [ed.]

[Panda-NZ-]

This all involves bringing Putin down, destabilizing Russia, and clearing that flank for a war with China. That’s the grand strategic thing that’s driving this. They do not give a dang about a single baby, a single woman, or a single person in Ukraine. They will use every one of them if they can or have to get to Putin and to get to their ultimate objective. That’s why this is so dangerous.



Wouldn't that be nice.

Russia would be in the EU and an ally, which would be great for Russia (not so much Putin, the kgb and oligarchs).

[ananda77]

Wouldn't that be nice.

Russia would be in the EU and an ally, which would be great for Russia (not so much Putin, the kgb and oligarchs).

No it would not be. To imagine an unilateral global set-up dominated by US interests to me is the worst kind scenario.
It is also completely delusional thinking that Russia can be brought to it's knees without destroying the globe.
In the current set of geo-political parameters, a duo-polar world, the US and it's allies on one side and a unified Eurasia on the other, to me, is the most acceptable scenario without leading to global destruction.

[Davexl]

4h ago19.00 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c24c88f08c2b874e4debf#block-626c24c88f08c2b874e4debf)

Summary

It is 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand:



Ukraine acknowledged heavy losses from Russia’s attack in the east as Moscow’s forces, having failed to seize the capital, redoubled their efforts to fully capture the eastern Donbas region. But Ukraine said casualties in the invading army were even worse. “We have serious losses, but the Russians’ losses are much much bigger (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/russia-carries-out-airstrike-on-kyiv-during-un-chief-visit-ukraine-antonio-guterres) … They have colossal losses,” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c1a0e8f0804ebf94312af#block-626c1a0e8f0804ebf94312af) a Ukrainian presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, said.



European Union countries are likely to approve a phased embargo on Russian oil as early as next week, according to EU officials. European ambassadors are reportedly expected to give their approval of a finalised proposal by the end of next week after meeting on Wednesday, according to several EU officials and diplomats involved in the process. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c13cf8f0804ebf9431253#block-626c13cf8f0804ebf9431253)



The US does not believe the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons despite a recent escalation in Moscow’s rhetoric, a senior US defence official said. Russia is days behind its schedule on its military operations in Ukraine’s Donbas region, a US defence official said, adding that the US believes that Russia’s fighting with Ukraine in the Donbas region will be a potential “knife fight”. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c05878f083e6f9078649b#block-626c05878f083e6f9078649b)
Moscow has confirmed it carried out an airstrike on Kyiv during a visit by the UN secretary general, António Guterres. The defence ministry said two “high-precision, long-range air-based weapons” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-what-we-know-on-day-65-of-the-invasion) had destroyed the production buildings of the Artyom missile and space enterprise in the Ukrainian capital on Thursday night.



The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, however, said a 25-storey residential building in the capital’s Shevchenkivskyi district was hit in the strike. Klitschko said one body had been recovered. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626b99088f08581273d1bd41#block-626b99088f08581273d1bd41) Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty said one of its staff, the journalist and producer Vera Gyrych, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/russia-carries-out-airstrike-on-kyiv-during-un-chief-visit-ukraine-antonio-guterres) had died “as a result of a Russian missile hitting the house where she lived” during Guterres’ visit.



The situation inside the besieged Azovstal steel plant in the city of Mariupol is “beyond a humanitarian catastrophe”, a Ukrainian commander inside the facility has said. Serhiy Volyna, from the 36th separate marine brigade, said there were hundreds of people in the steelworks, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626bd8b38f08fff86b738be4#block-626bd8b38f08fff86b738be4) including 60 young people, the youngest of whom is four months old. Ukraine hopes to evacuate civilians who are holed up in the steel plant with the last fighters defending the southern city, Zelenskiy’s office said. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626b9d948f08581273d1bd7c#block-626b9d948f08581273d1bd7c)



Two British aid workers who have reportedly been captured by Russian forces in Ukraine have been named. Presidium Network, a UK-based NGO that says it carries out evacuations of families and individuals from war zones, identified Paul Urey and Dylan Healy as the captured men. (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/29/foreign-office-looking-into-claims-two-britons-captured-in-ukraine) The Foreign Office said it was seeking further information about claims the two men who went to Ukraine to provide humanitarian aid have been captured.



A former US Marine has been killed fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, the first US citizen known to have died in combat in the war with Russia. Willy Joseph Cancel, 22, was killed on Monday while working for a military contracting company that sent him to Ukraine, his mother told CNN. (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/29/former-marine-becomes-first-us-citizen-died-russia-ukraine-war) The US defence department warned US citizens that they should not go to Ukraine to fight. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626be9c88f08581273d1c18b#block-626be9c88f08581273d1c18b)



The US Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, says the House will vote to pass Joe Biden’s $33bn request for aid for Ukraine “as soon as possible”. Speaking at her weekly press briefing on Friday morning, the House speaker framed the administration’s request as one of a number of “emergencies” Congress needed to address urgently. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c22748f083e6f907865f5#block-626c22748f083e6f907865f5)



Britain will send investigators to Ukraine to help gather evidence of war crimes, including sexual violence, the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, has said. Ukrainian prosecutors and the international criminal court (ICC) have been investigating potential war crimes (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/uk-to-send-investigators-to-ukraine-to-gather-evidence-of-war-crimes-truss-says) in Ukraine since Russia’s 24 February invasion.

[Davexl]

2h ago21.38 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c4bd78f08c2b874e4dff0#block-626c4bd78f08c2b874e4dff0)

Richard Preston

Vladimir Putin could announce the mass mobilisation of Russians on May 9, Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, has said.

Mr Wallace said that Putin could declare that “we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people”.

He told LBC that the Russian leader had “failed” in “nearly all [of his] objectives”.

He added: “We have to help Ukrainians effectively get the limpet off the rock and keep the momentum pushing them back”.

Meanwhile, the British ambassador to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) has announced the reopening of the embassy in the capital of Kyiv after it was temporarily relocated days before the Russian invasion began.

[Davexl]

8m ago23.27 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c65298f083e6f907867a4#block-626c65298f083e6f907867a4)

Despite saying it would only repay loans in roubles, Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) made overdue interest payments in dollars, Reuters reports:


Russia made what appeared to be a late U-turn to avoid a default on Friday, as it made a number of overdue interest payments in dollars on its overseas bonds, despite previously vowing to pay only in roubles as long as its reserves remained frozen.

Russia’s $40b of international bonds have become the focus of a game of financial chicken amid sweeping Western sanctions - and speculation about a default is likely to revive in less than four weeks, when a U.S. license allowing Moscow to make payments is due to expire.

Russia’s finance ministry said it had managed to pay $564.8m in interest on a 2022 Eurobond and $84.4m on another 2042 bond in dollars - the currency specified on the bonds.
A senior US official confirmed Moscow had made the payment without using reserves frozen in the United States, adding that the exact origin of the funds was unclear.

Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Reuters that the payments siphoned funds away from Russia’s Ukraine war effort and were a “sign of success” for US sanctions policy.

He declined to comment on the future of a Treasury general license due to expire on May 25 that allows banks to process Russian debt payments.

“Our overarching goal is to try to starve Russia of the resources that they’re using to both prop up their economy and finance their war effort, and to stop their invasion of Ukraine. So we’re going to keep making policy decisions with that in mind,” Adeyemo said.
Russia said it had channelled the required funds to the London branch of Citibank, one of the “paying agents” whose job it is to disburse them to the bondholders.

Citibank declined to comment.

[Davexl]

Eleventh-hour reprieve sought in Chinese extradition case

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/128491265/eleventhhour-reprieve-sought-in-chinese-extradition-case

Excerpt:

China director at Human Rights Watch, Sophie Richardson (https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/128404889/why-chinas-diplomatic-assurances-are-not-to-be-trusted), said there was plenty of evidence that China’s “diplomatic assurances” were not to be trusted.

”In yielding to Beijing’s request to send him to China for trial, New Zealand risks setting a dangerous precedent: accepting unenforceable promises from a notoriously abusive government and sidestepping obligations to combat torture,” she said.

Faafoi took the advice of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nanaia Mahuta, about the reliability of the assurances, which included New Zealand consular staff access to Kim at least every 48 hours in the investigation phase, and within a short period if Kim asked for it.

This decision by Kris Faafoi will be leveraged off the advice from the Minister of Foreign Affairs, who is subject to possible Chinese blackmail over NZ trade assurances in getting this decision passed.

There is no rational justification for any decision permitting this extradition to China's so-called "justice" regime...

[Davexl]

Japan’s Ruling Party Calls for ‘Counter Attack’ Capability, Increased Defense Budget

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/28/japans-ruling-party-calls-for-counter-attack-capability-increased-defense-budget?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=337c3f3244-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-337c3f3244-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=337c3f3244&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

Excerpt:

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presented its national security strategy proposals Wednesday to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, calling to increase in Japan’s defense budget to 2 percent or more of GDP along with the development of “counterattack” capabilities able to strike at not only at missile launch sites but also the command and control capabilities of the opposing nation which would serve as both a pre-emptive measure and deterrence capability for Japan.

[Waltzing]

Yes NZ is court in the mouth of the Tiger; Churchill re Hilter.

Anyone thinking that CHMOA is not a full blown communist state needs to think again.

As for the Imperial nightmare its here.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/putin-failed-state-following-failed-invasion-by-anders-aslund-2022-04

[GTM 3442]

What The Economist says:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300576543/how-rotten-is-russias-army?rm=a

[Davexl]

7m ago03.02 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c89908f083e6f90786842#block-626c89908f083e6f90786842)

Any weapons shipment to Ukraine is ‘legitimate target’ for Russia, Lavrov says

Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine will be finished as soon as its objectives are achieved, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has said in an interview with Al Arabiya television channel, as cited by RIA Novosti (https://tass.com/politics/1445721).

“It will be completed as soon as the goals, which I have already described, are accomplished and achieved,” he said.
In Lavrov’s view, any weapons shipment to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) is a legitimate target, RIA reported.

Because those weapons are to be handed to the regime that is waging a war against its own population, against civilians in the country’s east,” he said.

The minister emphasised that the special operation was a response to what Nato was doing in Ukraine to prepare it for an aggressive stand against Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia).

They were provided with offensive weapons, including the weapons capable of reaching Russian territory. Military bases were built, including at the Sea of Azov. Dozens of military exercises were conducted, and many of them on Ukrainian soil with Nato assistance. And most of those drills were aimed against Russia’s interests. Therefore, the goal of this operation is to make sure that those plans do not materialise,” the Russian foreign minister said.

“It has become evident that the goals of the military operation, which I have described, must be accomplished. I can assure you that during this military operation the Kiev regime’s escapades have been taken care of,” the foreign minister added.


30m ago02.39
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c91c58f083e6f9078685e#block-626c91c58f083e6f9078685e)
Shipments of new US military aid are en route to Ukraine after President Joe Biden asked Congress on Thursday for $33bn to bolster Ukraine’s fight against Russia.
In the images below, airmen and women with the 436th Aerial Port Squadron place 155mm shells, fused and helmets on aircraft pallets ultimately bound for Ukraine on a C-17 cargo aircraft on Friday at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5d7b97c0980fbb9cc5c951903f389270fa8b05a6/0_0_6000_4000/master/6000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Airmen with the 436th Aerial Port Squadron place 155 mm shells on aircraft pallets ultimately bound for Ukraine on Friday at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware. Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/99e4b98403ccafd6a0b6df44b4bf2565582d4e05/0_0_6000_4000/master/6000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
US Air Force Airwoman Megan Konsmo, from Tacoma, Washington, checks pallets of helmets bound for Ukraine in the Super Port of the 436th Aerial Port Squadron on Friday. Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/34326df5d202ba149f2931f47b5c1b8e51457bdc/0_0_6000_4000/master/6000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
A pallet of fuses for 155 mm shells is spun as it’s loaded on to a C-17 cargo aircraft. Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/786135e69b7b76326329b0aae24c1370863e6e9d/0_0_6000_4000/master/6000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Fuses for 155 mm shells prepared to be loaded on a C-17 flight. Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP


1h ago02.11

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c8c848f0804ebf943157e#block-626c8c848f0804ebf943157e)Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said there is a big risk that peace talks with Moscow would end and blamed public anger over what he said were atrocities by Russian troops.

“People [Ukrainians] want to kill them. When that kind of attitude exists, it’s hard to talk about things,” Interfax news agency quoted the president as telling Polish journalists.

[Davexl]

1h ago04.14 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626ca1668f0804ebf94315d3#block-626ca1668f0804ebf94315d3)

Nato countries are 'doing everything to prevent' negotiated cease fire, Lavrov says

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has had some stern words to say about the west’s involvement in Ukraine in a rare interview with China’s official Xinhua news agency (https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1811525/).
The transcript from the interview was published on the Russian foreign ministry’s website (https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1811525/) early Saturday morning.

Among a string of assertions, the foreign minister accused the United States and Nato countries of using Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) as “one of the tools to contain Russia” while maintaining that prior to Russia’s invasion on 24 February they were “forcing Kyiv to make an artificial, false choice: either with the West or with Moscow.”

Over the past years, the United States and its allies have done nothing to stop the intra-Ukrainian conflict ... they ‘pumped up’ the Kyiv regime with weapons, trained and armed the Ukrainian army and nationalist battalions, and generally carried out the military-political development of the territory of Ukraine. They encouraged the aggressive anti-Russian course pursued by the Kyiv authorities.”

It was these conditions that gave Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) “no other choice” but to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and launch a “special military operation” to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, Lavrov continued.
In fact, Nato (https://www.theguardian.com/world/nato) countries are “doing everything to prevent” a negotiated cease fire with Ukraine, Lavrov maintained.

By publicly expressing support for the Kyiv regime, Nato countries are doing everything to prevent the completion of the operation by reaching political agreements.


Various weapons are sent to Ukraine through Poland and other Nato countries in an endless stream.
All this is done under the pretext of ‘fighting the invasion’, but, in fact, the US and the EU intend to fight Russia ‘to the last Ukrainian’, and they are absolutely indifferent to the fate of Ukraine as an independent subject of international relations.”



If the US and Nato are really interested in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, then, firstly, they should change their minds and stop supplying arms and ammunition to Kyiv, Lavrov said, adding that Russia is “in favour” of continuing the negotiations, although “they are not going well”.


These are militant rhetoric and inflammatory actions of Kyiv’s Western backers. They actually encourage him to ‘fight to the last Ukrainian’, pumping up the country with weapons and sending mercenaries there. I note that the Ukrainian special services, with the help of Westerners, staged a crude bloody provocation in Bucha, including to complicate the negotiation process.”



Lavrov said it would only be possible to reach agreements when Kyiv begins to be guided by the interests of the Ukrainian people, and not “advisers from afar”.
The “special military operation” launched on 24 February is “developing strictly according to plan” and all its goals “will be surely achieved, despite the opposition of our opponents” the foreign minister concluded.

This propaganda spiel by Russia would be laughable if it wasn't also so tragic!

[Davexl]

4m ago05.15

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626cb5298f0804ebf9431609#block-626cb5298f0804ebf9431609)The sooner the west comes to terms with 'new geopolitical realities', the better it will be, Lavrov says

Russia’s foreign minister doubled down on his assertions against the west, claiming “the sooner” the west comes to terms with “new geopolitical realities” the better it will be for itself and the international community.

Today we are not talking about a new ‘cold war’, but, as I have already noted, about the persistent desire of Washington and its satellites, who imagine themselves to be ‘arbiters of the fate of mankind’, to impose an American-centric model of the world order.


It has gotten to the point that the western minority is trying to replace the UN-centric architecture and international law formed after the Second World War with their own ‘rule-based order’. These rules are written by Washington and its allies themselves and then imposed on the international community as binding.



https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/51fae9eaeed4e8a73c23a481ab8ff9220aae0778/0_0_5472_3648/master/5472.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov claimed “the sooner” the west comes to terms with “new geopolitical realities” the better it will be. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Lavrov continued to argue that those “who pursue an independent course in domestic and foreign policy” are suppressed by the west “by the most brutal methods”.

Obviously, the attempts of the ‘collective west’ to impede the natural course of history, to solve their problems at the expense of others, are doomed. Today’s world has several decision-making centres, it is multipolar. We see how the states of Asia, Africa and Latin America are developing dynamically. Everyone has a real freedom of choice, including ways of development and participation in integration projects.


Our special military operation in Ukraine also contributes to the process of freeing the world from the neo-colonial oppression of the west, heavily mixed with racism and an exclusiveness complex.”

The sooner the West comes to terms with the new geopolitical realities, the better it will be for itself and for the entire international community.”

The sooner Russia realizes it is losing its special operation in Ukraine, the sooner it can appreciate the fact that it is not even a regional power let alone a global one except by virue of its nuclear weapons. It is militarily and economically irrelevant in the greater scheme of things in Europe as is being proven by Ukraine!




40m ago04.39
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626c94778f0804ebf94315a6#block-626c94778f0804ebf94315a6)
More than 1 million people have been “evacuated from Ukraine” into Russia since 24 February, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in remarks published by the ministry early on Saturday.

Lavrov claimed the hotline of Russia’s interdepartmental coordination headquarters for humanitarian response received requests for assistance in evacuating 2.8 million people to Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia), of which 16,000 were foreign citizens and employees of UN and OSCE international missions.

“In total, 1.02 million people were evacuated from Ukraine, the DPR and the LPR, of which over 120 thousand citizens of third countries,” the foreign minister said in comments made to China’s Xinhua news agency (https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1811525/).

Ukraine has said that Moscow has forcefully deported thousands of people to Russia with humanitarian corridors repeatedly breaking down.
According to data from the United Nations, more than 5.4 million people have fled Ukraine since the start of the invasion.

[Davexl]

May 9 declaration ?

Russian President Vladimir Putin 'poised to declare all-out war on Ukraine'

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300576963/russian-president-vladimir-putin-poised-to-declare-allout-war-on-ukraine

[Waltzing]

And Markets wont like it.

Be interesting to see what markets will do but it wont be good for Ukraine.

Many russians only advanced in the second world war because if they went home they got shoot.

The UKE's are going to need those Panzers but they are only getting 4 of the Mark 2000 mobile type. Buts it the most advanced on the planet if they have developed a data link to feed it co ordinates from other systems.

Damn fine programmers the UKE's and they are probably busy looking at solutions. The Uke's should move some defence software development to other east european country's using the 2000.

Its a deadly system but germany wont give them any. The 4 Mark 2000 are from holland.

[Panda-NZ-]

May 9 declaration ?

Russian President Vladimir Putin 'poised to declare all-out war on Ukraine'

The russian federation will then be reorganised into an empire:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS57I6swXcc

[Waltzing]

Defence stocks will be in demand.

The rouble will really take a big hit as countries have to make hard decisions. Its unlikely the germans can keep taking GAS and may have to try to fire up some old coal stations if they have any?

Its really going to get messy and send some shock waves through markets.

Ukriane food production will be cut off as farmers dont venture out but really has russia got the production facilities to do the job.


Russia defence production is very poor and wars are won on manufacturing.

Ukraine will become a total mess by the end of it.

Its doubtful that the russian horde will be as effective as in WWII as they appear to be able to withdraw this time if they get HIT.

It pretty much as we envisioned and gamed out in discussions when the US pulled out of A Rag Tag mountain land.

[Panda-NZ-]

It's north korea with more though similar quality nukes.

They are trying to bring back war communism, which will only see people waiting in lines at a grocery store for one turnip or packet of bread.

[Waltzing]

Sweden and Norway will now join Nato Quick as they can.

Those 50 Panzer flak tanks will be needed and unfortunately Ukraine will need to protect it pilots.

US general say russia war declaration needed as they will run low on resources in months.

Buy defence stocks.

Russian's have started to flee if they can get flights out. They know whats coming and unlike 1917 the clever ones will leave anyway they can.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/russian-scientists-grapple-with-an-uncertain-future-69842

For those who enjoyed Clarks Civilisation series.

https://www.aei.org/articles/a-country-without-a-positive-vision-of-the-future-has-no-future-just-look-at-russia/

[GTM 3442]

Economic warfare. Like sanctions, but different.


https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/30/Ukraine-says-Russia-stole-several-hundred-thousand-tons-of-grain

[iceman]

Sweden and Norway will now join Nato Quick as they can.

Those 50 Panzer flak tanks will be needed and unfortunately Ukraine will need to protect it pilots.

US general say russia war declaration needed as they will run low on resources in months.

Buy defence stocks.

Russian's have started to flee if they can get flights out. They know whats coming and unlike 1917 the clever ones will leave anyway they can.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/russian-scientists-grapple-with-an-uncertain-future-69842

For those who enjoyed Clarks Civilisation series.

https://www.aei.org/articles/a-country-without-a-positive-vision-of-the-future-has-no-future-just-look-at-russia/

Norway is a founding member of Nato. I think you meant to write Sweden and Finland

[Davexl]

Blame game over Solomons–China deal must give way to clear-eyed strategy

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/blame-game-over-solomons-china-deal-must-give-way-to-clear-eyed-strategy/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_804566f3 7e473804ce77d4e9e39abce2&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Blame%20game%20over%20SolomonsChina%20dea l%20must%20give%20way%20to%20clear-eyed%20strategy

Excerpt:

"At the very least, it seems pertinent that the next government undertake a force posture and structure review. This kind of review identifies defence needs in terms of capabilities, readiness, structure and location. There will need to be new thinking about the Australian Defence Force’s strategic strike capabilities, including missiles.

This review should consider whether Cairns and Townsville have become as strategically important as Darwin. Perhaps these cities will need to become much more than garrison and port cities for the ADF. They could well become forward operating bases for the defence of Australia. If so, the Department of Defence will have to make further infrastructure investments to harden ports and airfields from attack and ensure they are fit for purpose."

NZ needs to be immediately thinking along similar lines, as well as dealing with MIQ related Army & trades attrition in the Defence Force overall, re-arming and readiness.

Perhaps Australia might consider outsourcing some diplomatic efforts to NZ for some of the PIF member countries to Ron Mark, as he was alluding to in todays "Q&A". (16:50 mins in, Ron always worth a listen) https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a/live
NZ appears to relate better to our sector's PIF countries, with our smaller size perhaps, compared to our big brother - so far...

[Davexl]

What a joke the Russians are, clearly the sanctions are staring to bite nicely and will be even more effective longer term (particularly the electronics sanctions), need to be strengthened further...

19h ago06.21 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/29/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-decries-barbaric-missile-strikes-on-kyiv-russian-gains-in-donbas-come-at-significant-cost-says-uk-live?page=with:block-626cc25a8f08c2b874e4e1c4#block-626cc25a8f08c2b874e4e1c4)

Lifting sanctions is part of peace negotiations, Russia claims

Lifting sanctions imposed on Russia is part of peace negotiations between Moscow and Ukraine, which are “not going well” but continue via videoconferencing on a daily basis, Lavrov said.

Kyiv warned on Friday that talks on ending Russia’s invasion, now in its third month, were in danger of collapse. In comments to China’s Xinhua news agency, Lavrov said:

At present, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations are actually discussing a draft of a possible treaty via videoconferencing on a daily basis.

This document should fix such elements of the post-conflict state of affairs as permanent neutrality, non-nuclear, non-bloc and demilitarised status of Ukraine, as well as guarantees of its security.
The agenda of the talks also includes issues of denazification, recognition of new geopolitical realities, the lifting of sanctions, the status of the Russian language, and others.
The settlement of the situation in Ukraine will make it possible to make a significant contribution to the de-escalation of military-political tension in Europe, and in the world as a whole.
As one of the possible options, the creation of an institution of guarantor states is envisaged, among which, first of all, are the permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia and China.”



“We are in favour of continuing the negotiations, although they are not going well,” Lavrov added.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has insisted that western sanctions on Russia needed to be strengthened and could not be part of negotiations.

[Davexl]

36m ago00.37

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626dc7eb8f0804ebf9431ca0#block-626dc7eb8f0804ebf9431ca0)https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/02/08/RobDavies.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&

Rob Davies

Energy giants BP and Shell are expected to report increased profits this week despite taking a big hit from the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), writes Rob Davies.

For BP and Shell (https://www.theguardian.com/business/royaldutchshell), the British companies that account for two of the world’s seven oil “supermajors”, the first quarter of 2022 has been painfully fascinating.
Both were heavily enmeshed in Russia and now face having to write down a combined £24bn on the value of their businesses, after cutting ties with the Kremlin (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/shell-to-exit-joint-ventures-with-gazprom-and-pull-out-of-nord-stream-2).

Shell is expected to take a hit of £3.5bn due to its decision to exit its joint venture with Gazprom (https://www.theguardian.com/business/gazprom), Russia’s state gas giant, including its stake in the Sakhalin-2 gas project. BP accounts for the lion’s share of the eye-watering sum, due to its 20% stake in state oil firm Rosneft.

It seems only yesterday that BP announced it was taking the stake, in exchange for the takeover of its Russian assets by Rosneft, as part of a new alliance unveiled in a conference at the oil company’s salubrious London HQ.

BP boss Bob Dudley, who had himself fled Russia during a dispute with BP’s partners in a former joint venture there, announced the deal in 2013 (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/mar/21/rosneft-takes-over-tnk-bp) alongside his new pal Igor Sechin, then chair of Rosneft.

Dudley is enjoying semi-retirement, while Sechin – nicknamed Darth Vader (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jun/24/putin-tightens-grip-on-economy) – sits at Putin’s right hand. The result, after discussions between the government and BP, is divestment and a £20bn hit. Rosneft accounted for £1.9bn of profit last year.

Looked at one way, that’s a lot of money. Looked at another, it’s practically chicken feed for a company that absorbed £50bn of costs from its 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill and lived to tell the tale. Moreover, the loss might have been more painful if it weren’t for the fact that oil companies have been making out like bandits due to sky-high oil and gas prices.

Read more here:

High energy prices leave oil giants untroubled by Russia exit or tax hints
(https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/01/high-energy-prices-leave-oil-giants-untroubled-by-russia-exit-or-tax-hints)

[Davexl]

1h ago00.01
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626dbaa58f0804ebf9431c70#block-626dbaa58f0804ebf9431c70)
Summary of recent developments

It’s 2am in Ukraine.


Twenty wounded civilians were able to evacuate from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, and are likely on their way to Zaporizhzhia. This comes as satellite images released today showed that nearly all the buildings of the steel plant had been destroyed.
Ukraine carried out a prisoner exchange with Russia, with seven soldiers and seven civilians coming home. One of the soldiers was a woman who is five months pregnant.
A Russian missile strike on Odesa airport has damaged the runway, rendering it unusable, but there were no casualties from the attack.
Currently, Lyman, a city of about 20,000 in the Donetsk region, is on fire from a Russian attack.
Angelina Jolie visited Lviv today to meet children and others affected by the war.
The Russian military has killed twice as many Mariupol residents in these two months of war as Nazi Germany did in its two years occupying the city during World War II.
Boris Johnson has promised to provide additional military aid.

[Davexl]

2h ago22.53
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626dae968f083e6f90786edd#block-626dae968f083e6f90786edd)
Volodymyr Zelenskiy met today in Kyiv with Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin, as Turkey president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continues his efforts for an Istanbul summit between the Ukrainian leader and Vladimir Putin.

AFP reported that deputy foreign minister Sedat Onal accompanied Kalin, but no details of the meeting were immediately available.

Erdogan told Putin in a phone call on Thursday that Turkey wanted “to establish a lasting peace in the region as soon as possible by increasing the momentum gained in the Istanbul talks”.

Turkey had previously hosted a meeting between Moscow and Kyiv negotiators in Istanbul and another between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba in Antalya in March.

[Davexl]

What the Syrian fighters are doing...

4h ago21.49
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626d9f4b8f08c2b874e4e7d1#block-626d9f4b8f08c2b874e4e7d1)
Prosecutors for the Kyiv region are investigating the village killing camp in Motyzhyn where a Russian unit led by Syria veterans led a torturous murder campaign on Ukrainian civilians and soldiers alike.

Some of those killed included village leader Olga Petrivna Sukhenko and her family. She had stayed behind to coordinate aid and territorial defence.

When her body was found alongside her family’s bodies, they showed signs of being badly beaten, their arms had been twisted broken, they had been shot in the hands or knees to cause maximum pain, then shot again in the stomach before finally being killed by a bullet to the back of the head.

According to locals, this sort of sadistic torture was typical of what most victims experienced in the camp.

[Davexl]

5h ago20.50
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626d8ed38f083e6f90786e5b#block-626d8ed38f083e6f90786e5b)
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/9/16/1284651366776/nadeem.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&

Nadeem Badshah

Boris Johnson has promised to provide additional military aid to Ukraine as president Volodymyr Zelenskiytold him what was needed to defend his country against Russian forces.

In a call on Saturday afternoon, the prime minister offered Zelenskiy the UK’s “continued economic and humanitarian support”, a Downing Street spokesperson said.
Johnson is said to have told the Ukrainian leader that he is “more committed than ever to reinforcing Ukraine and ensuring Putin fails”.

Britain is one of the largest suppliers in Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) of arms to Ukraine, having already sent more than 5,000 anti-tank missiles, 1,360 anti-structure munitions, five air defence systems with more than 100 missiles, and 4.5 tonnes of plastic explosives, according to the ministry of defence.

A Downing Street spokesperson said: “President Zelenskiy updated on the fierce fighting in eastern Ukraine and ongoing siege of Mariupol. He set out the equipment needed for the defence of Ukraine.

“The prime minister reiterated that he is more committed than ever to reinforcing Ukraine and ensuring Putin fails, noting how hard the Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom.

“He confirmed that the UK will continue to provide additional military aid to give the Ukrainians the equipment they needed to defend themselves.
“The leaders also discussed progress of the UN-led effort to evacuate Mariupol and concern for the injured there. The prime minister offered the UK’s continued economic and humanitarian support.”

[Davexl]

6h ago19.16
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626d7a128f0804ebf9431b35#block-626d7a128f0804ebf9431b35)
Russia’s defense ministry is saying that its armed forces hit 17 Ukrainian military facilities with high-precision missiles today, destroying a command post and a warehouse used to store rockets and artillery, Reuters is reporting.

These strikes killed more than 200 Ukrainian troops and destroyed 23 armored vehicles, the defense ministry said in an online post.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military is claiming that its forces have regained control over four settlements in the Kharkhiv region.

[Davexl]

More denials of proxy war or not...

15h ago11.06
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626d08c58f0804ebf9431728#block-626d08c58f0804ebf9431728)
Khrushchev's great-granddaughter says world closer to nuclear war than during Cuban missile crisis

Russia and the west are nearer to nuclear war than during the Cuban missile crisis, the great-granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev has warned.

Nina Khrushcheva, an academic whose great-grandfather was leader of the Soviet Union during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, warned the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) appears to be more dangerous as neither side seems willing to “back off”.

Khrushcheva said that both US president John F Kennedy and Khrushchev agreed to de-escalate as soon as nuclear war became a real threat.
Speaking on the Today programme, Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York, said of the 1962 crisis:

What really saved the world at the time was that both Khrushchev and Kennedy, whatever they thought of each other’s ideology and disagreed with it, and didn’t want to give in and blink first, yet when the threat appeared of a potential conflict of any kind they immediately backed off.

We are closer to more issues, nuclear, than any other way, because I don’t see today any side, particularly the Russian side, backing off, and that’s what really scares me the most.”

Khrushcheva also claimed that Russia’s war in Ukraine was “a proxy war” between the west and Russia in which Ukraine is “to some degree a pawn”.

While former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger seconded her concerns about the threat of nuclear war, he rejected her view of the conflict as a “proxy war”. He said:The idea that this is a broader war, that we’re in a broader conflict with Russia, simply plays to the Russian narrative as they come under pressure because they’ll be able to tell their people that this is a defensive war.”

[Davexl]

Unbelievably tragic - but this is war...

15h ago10.22
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626cfd588f0804ebf94316fe#block-626cfd588f0804ebf94316fe)
Two Ukrainian women whose husbands are defending the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol have called for international assistance to evacuate soldiers alongside civilians.

In an interview with the Associated Press, Yuliia Fedusiuk, 29, the wife of Arseniy Fedusiuk, a member of the Azov regiment in Mariupol, said:
The lives of soldiers matter too. We can’t only talk about civilians. We are hoping that we can rescue soldiers too, not only dead, not only injured, but all of them.”

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/a9211ac1e276579ade9456870b877b296b045cfe/0_262_7901_4744/master/7901.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Kateryna Prokopenko, wife of Denys Prokopenko, commander of the Azov regiment, right, and Yulia Fedosiuk, wife of Arseny Fedosiuk, another member of Azov regiment, during an interview with AP in Rome Photograph: Alessandra Tarantino/APAlongside Kateryna Prokopenko, whose husband Denys Prokopenko is the Azov commander, Fedusiuk called for international assistance to evacuate the plant.

It is estimated that 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 1,000 civilians remain in the plant’s underground bunkers – the last Ukrainian holdout in the besieged southern city. Conditions are increasingly bleak as food, water and medicine run out.
Last week, footage emerged from an Azovstal bunker (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/23/women-and-children-beg-for-help-in-video-from-besieged-mariupol-steel-factory) showing women and children pleading to be evacuated to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d6e609f0e063feb7017022014eb3bf6bce867579/115_0_3269_1963/master/3269.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Civilians take shelter in a bunker in Mariupol. Photograph: Azov Battalion/ReutersProkopenko, 27, called for a Dunkirk-style operation to evacuate troops alongside civilians.

We can do this extraction operation ... which will save our soldiers, our civilians, our kids,” she said. “We need to do this right now, because people — every hour, every second — are dying.”

They said around 600 of the soldiers are injured, including some suffering from gangrene. The women showed AP videos and photos sent by their husbands of men with injuries including amputated limbs and bullet wounds.

Fedusiuk told the news agency that Ukrainian troops would not surrender to the Russian army, and would face torture.

We don’t know any Azov soldier who came (back) alive from Russian soldiers, from 2014, so they will be tortured and killed. We know that definitely, so it is not an option for them.”

[Davexl]

Russian losses to date:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1520311914315853824?s=20&t=m_dEix3TN-l0qALLLGZNTg

[Waltzing]

The big Risk here is that NZ risks having to follow AUS.

NSW government ministers unhappy with new 'PC' office advice - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/nsw-government-ministers-unhappy-with-new-pc-office-advice/YUDQHI6M7R7EZSIII5EXQS3TPY/)

The other big risk here is that a MULTI RACE party will be formed here soon. In fact cant understand why there hasnt been one already except perhaps they cant agree on anything.....

[Beagle]

Mate, It would be a shocker if that happened. The world's gone mad when you can't call a mate, a mate, don't you think so mate ?

[Waltzing]

The Ocker's at the RSA (RSL) wouldnt be happy.

https://www.rslaustralia.org/

Its a sad day when the service men and women will no longer be able to address each other as MATE.

Perhaps they can use a French word instead. But it takes to long to say it and the average OCK's talks a lot and fast.

[Waltzing]

Germany has been very lax in spending up big on weapons.

But a certain german manufacture hasnt been siting still and thank goodness. The swed's have also been busy creating new mobile systems.

Some very cool system including lasers and high mobility system of all sizes ; some of the best in the world.

https://www.rheinmetall-defence.com/en/rheinmetall_defence/systems_and_products/index.php

Laser defence systems in cities and shore facilities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUGpCUkFwYI

These system's are some of the most feared and many european armies want these new weapons systems.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdwjcayPuag

Also the Sweds have a very high automated system.

https://www.baesystems.com/en/what-we-do/products-and-services

And HIGHLY mobile gun system.

Get a LOAD of this ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZlxDFRQ0KQ

Buy Defence.


Boy those germans are going to be able to go XMAS shopping like they have never armed up before including F35's.

And the new super heavy Leopard tank; they will be buying some more of these heavy tanks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RmGu9nqtvU

400 Km at 70 KMH. Its a Blitzkreg weapons system.

French sending mobile guns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWRqH1dapAI

Some NATO hardware on offer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uynYCcqAQzY

[Waltzing]

MUSK and German military manufacturing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDe7OGpPodM

The new Howard Hughes.

[Waltzing]

https://www.indiewire.com/2022/04/navalny-director-interview-putin-russia-failed-state-1234719497/

[GTM 3442]

Seems theres more to this internet thing than Facebook likes and #Shein videos. . .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/05/01/russia-cyber-attacks-hacking/

[Bjauck]

The big Risk here is that NZ risks having to follow AUS.

NSW government ministers unhappy with new 'PC' office advice - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/nsw-government-ministers-unhappy-with-new-pc-office-advice/YUDQHI6M7R7EZSIII5EXQS3TPY/)

The other big risk here is that a MULTI RACE party will be formed here soon. In fact cant understand why there hasnt been one already except perhaps they cant agree on anything.....

I see the new advice for govt ministers includes a ban on drinking alcohol in the office. Back in the days of Hawke and Muldoon, the amber nectar and spirit was just about compulsory and water would be more likely to be banned!

[BlackPeter]

I see the new advice for govt ministers includes a ban on drinking alcohol in the office. Back in the days of Hawke and Muldoon, the amber nectar and spirit was just about compulsory and water would be more likely to be banned!

... this explains a lot about Australian history ... running their country in a constant state of intoxication and consistently patting their evil streak ....

[Davexl]

16h ago06.47 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/30/ukraine-latest-news-us-damns-putins-cruelty-and-depravity-zelenskiy-questions-lack-of-powerful-response-to-humiliation-of-un-in-kyiv-live?page=with:block-626e193a8f0804ebf9431dff#block-626e193a8f0804ebf9431dff)

Yesterday Chinese state media published two interviews, with the foreign ministers of both Russia and Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine). It’s an interesting decision, and one they didn’t really push out on social media like they might usually with stories. China’s role in the conflict as a key “no limits” friend of Russia has been the subject of heated debate and discussion. It has put itself forward as a peacemaker but simultaneously refused to label Russia’s act as an invasion, and instead blamed the US and Nato for creating and escalating tensions.

Kuleba asked China to provide security guarantees for Kyiv, as well as from other permanent members of the UN Security Council, Xinhua reported.
“We propose that China becomes one of the guarantors of Ukraine’s security, this is a sign of our respect and trust in the People’s Republic of China.”
China in 2013 pledged to provide Ukraine with “security guarantees” if it is ever invaded or threatened with nuclear attack, but appeared evasive on the same issue in the wake of Russia’s attack, according to AFP’s report which also noted:


In response to a question about the guarantee last month, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman suggested that such “security assurances have clear limitations on the content and are triggered under specific conditions”, in reference to a similar United Nations security resolution on non-nuclear states.



Since the invasion Chinese state media has amplified Russian propaganda, refused to condemn the attack or call it an invasion, and avoided attributed Ukrainian civilian casualties to Russian forces. It’s interesting then, that in publishing the interview it did not censor strong criticisms by Kuleba.

“European countries panic because they cannot guarantee Russia will not invade them tomorrow,” he said according to a translation by Politico reporter, Stuart Lau. “If Russia is not stopped now, it will lead to more crises a few years later.”

AFP notes Kuleba also accused Russia of having “compromised” Beijing’s signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, warning that the consequences of the global food security crisis would threaten China’s economy.

“We also believe that this war is not in China’s interests,” he was quoted as saying.
“The situation is not escalating because of Ukraine, we are exercising our right to defend ourselves,” he said, in an apparent rebuff of Chinese warnings against other states providing arms to Kyiv.

[Davexl]

2h ago20.59
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/01/russia-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vows-ukraine-will-be-free-russian-troll-factory-spreads-disinformation-says-uk?page=with:block-626ee4a08f0804ebf9432300#block-626ee4a08f0804ebf9432300)
Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelenskiy said that evacuations from Mariupol will continue tomorrow if “all the necessary conditions” are met.

“Today, for the first time in all the days of the war, this vital corridor has started working,” he said. “For the first time there were two days of real ceasefire on this territory.”

In his latest address, he said:

We will continue to do everything to evacuate our people from Azovstal, from Mariupol in general. The organization of such humanitarian corridors is one of the elements of the ongoing negotiation process. It is very complex. But no matter how difficult it was, more than 350,000 people were rescued from the areas of hostilities...

Today, Russian troops continued to strike at the territory of our state. The targets they choose prove once again that the war against Ukraine is a war of extermination for the Russian army. They targeted the warehouses of agricultural enterprises. The grain warehouse was destroyed. The warehouse with fertilizers was also shelled. They continued shelling of residential neighborhoods in the Kharkiv region, Donbas, etc.

They are accumulating forces in the south of the country to try to attack our cities and communities in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
What could be Russia’s strategic success in this war? Honestly, I do not know. The ruined lives of people and the burned or stolen property will give nothing to Russia. It will only increase the toxicity of the Russian state and the number of those in the world who will work to isolate Russia.

[Davexl]

3h ago19.51
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/01/russia-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vows-ukraine-will-be-free-russian-troll-factory-spreads-disinformation-says-uk?page=with:block-626ece228f083e6f907874dc#block-626ece228f083e6f907874dc)
The evacuation of the Azovstal steel plant is ongoing, according to the UN.

“It was agreed with both parties to the conflict that civilians who had been stranded for nearly two months in Azovstal - women, children and the elderly – will be evacuated to Zaporizka where they will receive immediate humanitarian support, including psychological services,” the United Nations said in a statement. “As the operations are still ongoing, we will not provide further details at this point, to guarantee the safety of the civilians and humanitarians in the convoy.”

About 100 civilians have so far been evacuated from the plant in Mariupol in a joint mission by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross.
Here’s a dispatch from Reuters’ Guy Faulconbridge, who interviewed a woman who had been evacuated:

Cowering in the labyrinth of Soviet-era bunkers far beneath the vast Azovstal steel works, Natalia Usmanova felt her heart would stop she was so terrified as Russian bombs rained down on Mariupol, sprinkling her with concrete dust.

Usmanova, 37, spoke to Reuters on Sunday after being evacuated from the plant, a sprawling complex founded under Josef Stalin and designed with a subterranean network of bunkers and tunnels to withstand attack.

“I feared that the bunker would not withstand it - I had terrible fear,” Usmanova said, describing the time sheltering underground.
“When the bunker started to shake, I was hysterical, my husband can vouch for that: I was so worried the bunker would cave in.”

“We didn’t see the sun for so long,” she said, speaking in the village of Bezimenne in an area of Donetsk under the control of Russia-backed separatists around 30 km (20 miles) east of Mariupol.
She recalled the lack of oxygen in the shelters and the fear that had gripped the lives of people hunkered down there.

[Davexl]

Germany finally pulling finger...re fossil fuels anyway...

7h ago16.22
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/01/russia-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vows-ukraine-will-be-free-russian-troll-factory-spreads-disinformation-says-uk?page=with:block-626ea2f28f0804ebf9432153#block-626ea2f28f0804ebf9432153)
Germany has announced a sharp reduction in its imports of Russian fossil fuels, just days before the EU is expected to include oil in its sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/01/russia-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vows-ukraine-will-be-free-russian-troll-factory-spreads-disinformation-says-uk?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with%3Ablock-626e8e268f083e6f907872ae#block-626e8e268f083e6f907872ae)
Germany’s economy ministry on Sunday published statistics showing how consumption of Russian imported oil, gas and coal had fallen sharply since the invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).
Here are the main points summarised by a German government official:

https://twitter.com/SFischer_EU/status/1520743582747041794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1520743582747041794%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld% 2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F01%2Frussia-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vows-ukraine-will-be-free-russian-troll-factory-spreads-disinformation-says-uk%3Fpage%3Dwith%3Ablock-626ea6d88f083e6f907873b4filterKeyEvents%3Dfalse

Germany plans to wean itself off Russian gas by 2024, and oil and coal much sooner.

[Davexl]

7h ago15.58
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/01/russia-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vows-ukraine-will-be-free-russian-troll-factory-spreads-disinformation-says-uk?page=with:block-626e9ac58f0804ebf94320fb#block-626e9ac58f0804ebf94320fb)
Summary

Here’s a roundup of the latest developments in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), as a United Nations-led evacuation of a steel plant in Mariupol is under way.


Civilians are being evacuated from the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol, where about 1,000 people are thought to be sheltering. The first group of 100 was being led away by late afternoon on Sunday, according to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The effort is led by the Red Cross, and coordinated with Ukraine and Russia.
Two groups of nearly 60 people have already been evacuated to the village of Bezimenne in Donetsk (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/01/civilians-mariupol-steelworks-azovstal-ukraine-nancy-pelosi-kyiv-visit), with Reuters witnessing buses arriving on Saturday and Sunday.
US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has become the highest-ranking US official to visit Ukraine since the outbreak of war, where she met president Zelenskiy.
In a press conference afterwards, Pelosi said that the US would not be bullied. “If they are making threats, you cannot back down,” she said.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz has rejected criticism of Germany’s reluctance to send heavy weapons to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), as an opinion poll by Sunday newspaper Bild Am Sonntag found a majority of Germans disagreed with his approach. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/01/scholz-defends-ukraine-policy-as-criticism-mounts-in-germany)
The governor of the north eastern city of Kharkiv has urged people not to leave shelters on Sunday due to intense shelling.
Pope Francis described the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) as a “macabre regression of humanity” that makes him “suffer and cry”, in a Sunday noon address in St Peter’s Square.
Russia’s defence ministry has confirmed an attack on an airfield near Odesa on Saturday. It said its forces had destroyed a runway and hangar at an airfield, which contained weapons supplied by the US and EU.
One person has been injured in a fire at a Russian defence facility in the Belgorod region which borders Ukraine.

[Davexl]

Scholz defends Ukraine policy as criticism mounts in Germany

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/01/scholz-defends-ukraine-policy-as-criticism-mounts-in-germany

Excerpt:

Melnyk, who has himself drawn criticism within Germany for his persistent complaints about what he has repeatedly described as the country’s lack of decisive action, said that the Gepard anti-aircraft guns promised last week were insufficient and too old.

“The direction is the right one, but of course they are not enough. In particular we’re lacking ammunition for the Gepards ... and in addition they are 40 years old. In order to defeat Russia we need the most modern Germany weaponry,” he said, also speaking to Bild.

Melnyk listed the specific arms he said Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) needed Germany to deliver. “We want the speedy export of 88 Leopard tanks, 100 Marder armoured personnel carriers, self-propelled howitzers and much more. We are experiencing the biggest war in Europe for 80 years. It cannot be won with 30 or 100 more anti-aircraft systems.”

[Joshuatree]

Appreciate you feeding news on this thread Davexl.

[Waltzing]

LP 1's are next to useless and not a match for upgrade T64's apparently.

The Older Anti Aircraft guns are still used around the world and still considered effective.

A lot of heavy guns are still based on older designs and the newer designs for smart weapons are very new.

Those Lp1 's are apparently only any use for home guard stuff and for freeing up front line resources.

The russians will also run out of tank resources as many are not fit for purpose.

There is chance both side run out of resources.

Germany is only starting to re equip with modern anti aircraft.

A lot more stuff is being sort and dragged out of warehouses.

BlackPeter can probably tell us about the german Anti Aircraft tank but some eastern european countries have only just started using them in the last 10 years.

Looks like the problem getting the munition and Brazil has some bought for protecting soccer events of all things.

It will take germany up to 6 to 12 months to manufacture new ammo as the SWIZZY's are neutral.

Looking like a non starter for the next 6 months.

A lot of open space in Ukraine.

[Panda-NZ-]

Russian state TV hosts debate firing nuclear missiles at London, Paris and Berlin

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/05/ukraine-invasion-russian-state-tv-hosts-debate-firing-nuclear-missiles-at-london-paris-and-berlin.html


Funny because how many will simply fall out of the sky or not fire.

The finest of russian engineering (tm)

[Davexl]

36m ago03.19
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/01/russia-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskiy-vows-ukraine-will-be-free-russian-troll-factory-spreads-disinformation-says-uk?page=with:block-626f385c8f0804ebf9432467#block-626f385c8f0804ebf9432467)
Report: Russia's top uniformed officer visited Ukraine last week

Russia’s top uniformed officer, General Valery Gerasimov, visited dangerous frontline positions in eastern Ukraine last week in a bid to reinvigorate the Russian offensive there, the New York Times has reported (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/01/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#russian-general-dead-valery-gerasimov) citing Ukrainian and US officials.
The Guardian was unable to verify the report.
During the visit, Gerasimov, chief of the Russian general staff, narrowly escaped a deadly Ukrainian attack on a school being used as a military base in the Russian-controlled city of Izium late Saturday, the Times reported.
Around 200 soldiers including at least one general were killed in the strike, a Ukrainian official told the paper, but Gerasimov had already departed for Russia.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, earlier said that Ukrainian forces had “likely conducted a rocket artillery strike on a Russian command post in Izyum on April 30 that struck after Russian chief of staff Valery Gerasimov had left but killed other senior Russian officers.”
US officials could not confirm the attack and the Russian Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Our working assumption is that he was there because there’s a recognition they haven’t worked out all their problems yet,” one of the US officials told the Times. The Russian offensive has been slow, with widespread disarray and poor morale reported among Russian forces.

The Kremlin appears to be focusing its operations around the city of Izium (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/29/russia-eastern-ukraine-push-protracted-war) as part of renewed efforts to seize the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Gerasimov has reportedly been put in command of the push.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/6acdb9bf3cfecb4e39ba050eec81ba35905d92ed/0_119_6000_3600/master/6000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Russian chief of the general staff General Valery Gerasimov (L) with defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Photograph: Alexei Nikolsky/AP

[Davexl]

Appreciate you feeding news on this thread Davexl.


Cheers JT, trying to be a little selective of Guardian feed especially...

[beetills]

Russian state TV hosts debate firing nuclear missiles at London, Paris and Berlin

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/05/ukraine-invasion-russian-state-tv-hosts-debate-firing-nuclear-missiles-at-london-paris-and-berlin.html


Funny because how many will simply fall out of the sky or not fire.

The finest of russian engineering (tm)
Funny that the Russians are only talking about the outgoing,no mention of the incoming.

[Davexl]

28m ago06.24
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626f69a38f0804ebf9432563#block-626f69a38f0804ebf9432563)
More than a quarter of the units dedicated to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) have likely since been rendered “combat ineffective”, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.
Some of the country’s most elite units had suffered the highest attrition rates, it continued, adding: “It will probably take years for Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) to reconstitute these forces.”
The update in full:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1520987841702080512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1520987841702080512%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld% 2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F02%2Frussia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live%3Fpage%3Dwith%3Ablock-626f69a38f0804ebf9432563block-626f69a38f0804ebf9432563


At the start of the conflict, Russia committed over 120 battalion tactical groups, approximately 65% of its entire ground combat strength.

It is likely that more than a quarter of these units have now been rendered combat ineffective.
Some of Russia’s most elite units, including the VDV Airborne Forces, have suffered the highest levels of attrition. It will probably take years for Russia to reconstitute these forces.

[Davexl]

43m ago06.12
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626f56468f083e6f90787732#block-626f56468f083e6f90787732)
Summary

Hello, this is Helen Livingstone bringing you the latest news from the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine). Here’s a summary of the latest developments:



Civilians evacuated from the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol are expected to arrive in the Ukraine-controlled city of Zaporizhzhia on Monday, as part of an effort led by the Red Cross and the UN. One group from the besieged plant has also arrived in the village of Bezimenne (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/mariupol-evacuee-recounts-terror-in-bunkers-below-azovstal-steelworks) in Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine. Mariupol’s city council separately said an evacuation convoy coordinated by the UN and the Red Cross would also be able to leave the city on Monday.



Two explosions took place in the early hours of Monday in Belgorod, the southern Russian region bordering Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), Vyacheslav Gladkov, the region’s governor said. “There were no casualties or damage,” Gladkov wrote. On Sunday Gladkov had said one person was injured in a fire at a Russian defence ministry facility in Belgorod, while seven homes had been damaged. No further details were immediately available.



Russia’s top uniformed officer, General Valery Gerasimov, visited dangerous frontline positions in eastern Ukraine last week in a bid to reinvigorate the Russian offensive there, the New York Times has reported (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/01/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#russian-general-dead-valery-gerasimov) citing Ukrainian and US officials. He left on Saturday shortly before a deadly Ukrainian attack on a school being used as a military base in the Russian-controlled city of Izium.



US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, is set to meet Polish president Andrzej Duda on Monday, after becoming the highest-ranking US official to visit Ukraine since the outbreak of war. In a press conference after meeting Zelenskiy, Pelosi said that the US would not be bullied by Russia. Adam Schiff, chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee, meanwhile told CNN it was “only a matter of time” before US president Joe Biden visits Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).



Russia’s latest strikes, including on grain warehouses and residential neighbourhoods, “prove once again that the war against Ukraine is a war of extermination for the Russian army,” Zelenskiy has said in his latest nightly address, asking, “What could be Russia’s strategic success in this war?” The “ruined lives of people and the burned or stolen property will give nothing to Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia).”



German chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged to continue supporting Ukraine with money, aid and weapons, saying a pacifist approach to the war is “outdated.”
His remarks to a May Day rally in Dusseldorf were an implicit rebuke to a group of intellectuals, lawyers and creatives who condemned Russia’s war of aggression in an open letter, but urged Scholz not to send heavy weapons to Ukraine.



Russia’s latest strikes, including on grain warehouses and residential neighbourhoods, “prove once again that the war against Ukraine is a war of extermination for the Russian army,” Zelenskiy has said in his latest nightly address, asking, “What could be Russia’s strategic success in this war?” The “The ruined lives of people and the burned or stolen property will give nothing to Russia,” he continued.



South Korea has become the latest country to reopen its embassy in Kyiv, the Foreign Ministry in Seoul has said. Ambassador Kim Hyung-tae is set to resume working from Kyiv on Monday.



Russia’s Defence Ministry has confirmed an attack on an airfield near Odesa on Saturday. It said its forces had destroyed a runway and hangar at an airfield, which contained weapons supplied by the US and EU.



The governor of the north eastern city of Kharkiv urged people not to leave shelters on Sunday due to intense shelling. Posting on Telegram (https://t.me/synegubov/3054), Oleh Synyehubov said: “In connection with the intense shelling, we urge residents of the northern and eastern districts of Kharkiv, in particular Saltivka, not to leave the shelter during the day without urgency.”



The European Union could phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year, under the latest set of sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s war machine being discussed in Brussels.The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has said for weeks that the EU is working on sanctions targeting Russian oil, but the key question is how and when the commodity is phased out.



Russia’s online trolling operation is becoming increasingly decentralised and is gaining “incredible traction” on TikTok with disinformation aimed at sowing doubt over events in Ukraine, a US social media researcher has warned. Darren Linvill, professor at Clemson University, South Carolina, who has been studying the Kremlin-linked Internet Research Agency (IRA) troll farm operation since 2017, said it was succeeding in creating more authentic-seeming posts.

[Waltzing]

For MR B:

Raytheon Technologies(RTX)
https://www.fool.com/quote/nyse/rtx/

[Davexl]

26m ago03.55

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626f8e098f08c2b874e4f1f5#block-626f8e098f08c2b874e4f1f5)A Ukrainian Bayraktar drone destroyed two Russian Raptor-class patrol ships in the Black Sea on Monday, Reuters reports, citing Ukraine’s military leader. The chief of general staff Valeriy Zaluzhniy wrote on the Telegram messaging app:

Two Russian Raptor-class boats were destroyed at dawn today near Zmiinyi (Snake) Island.

There has been no immediate reaction from Moscow.


39m ago08.42
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626f8a958f083e6f90787890#block-626f8a958f083e6f90787890)
Finland will decide to apply for Nato membership on 12 May, according to a local media report.

Citing anonymous government sources, the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti reports the decision to join will come in two steps on that day, with the nation’s president Sauli Niinisto first announcing his approval for the Nordic neighbour of Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) to join the western defence alliance, followed by parliamentary groups giving their approval for the application.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) has pushed Finland and Sweden to the verge of applying for Nato membership and abandoning a belief held for decades that peace was best kept by not publicly choosing sides.
Reuters reports it has not immediately been able to verify the details provided by Iltalehti.

Under the Finnish constitution, the president leads Finland’s foreign and security policy in cooperation with the government.
The decision will be confirmed in a meeting between the president and the government’s key ministers after the president and parliament’s initial announcements, Iltalehti reports.

Russia, with which Finland shares an 810-mile (1,300-km) border and a pre-1945 history of conflict, has warned it will deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in its Baltic coast enclave of Kaliningrad if Finland and Sweden decide to join the alliance.


1h ago08.08
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626f819e8f08c2b874e4f1b0#block-626f819e8f08c2b874e4f1b0)
Hungary is still opposed to any EU embargo on Russian oil and gas imports, government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs has said.

“The Hungarian stance regarding any oil and gas embargo has not changed: we do not support them,” Kovacs told Reuters.

The EU is set to propose phased ban of Russian oil imports as part of new sanctions package under discussion this week.
Several diplomats said the ban on oil was made possible after a U-turn by Germany, which had said the measure would do too much harm to its economy, AFP reported earlier.

However, the ban would require unanimous backing from member states.

[Davexl]

2h ago07.14

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626f72ce8f083e6f907877e9#block-626f72ce8f083e6f907877e9)The founder of one of Russia’s biggest banks, Oleg Tinkov, has denounced president Vladimir Putin in his first interview since Russia invaded Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) in February, and said he could be in physical danger.

“I’ve realized that Russia, as a country, no longer exists,” Tinkov told the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/01/world/ukraine-russia-war-news#oligarch-putin-oleg-tinkov) from an undisclosed location, but predicted that Putin would stay in power a long time. “I believed that the Putin regime was bad. But of course, I had no idea that it would take on such catastrophic scale.

The 54-year-old made headlines in April (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/20/russian-tycoon-oleg-tinkov-denounces-insane-war-in-ukraine) when he offered some of the strongest criticism by a prominent Russian of the Kremlin’s military action, writing in an Instagram post that 90% of Russians were “against this war” and calling Russia’s forces a “**** army”.

“And how will the army be good, if everything else in the country is **** and mired in nepotism, sycophancy and servility?” he wrote.

In Sunday’s interview he said that many of his acquaintances in the business and government elite had told him privately that they agreed with him, “but they are all afraid.”

He also said that he had been forced by the Kremlin to sell his 35% stake in the bank he founded, Tinkoff, to a Russian mining billionaire for a fraction of what it was worth. The “fire sale” took place last week, said Tinkov. “It was like a hostage – you take what you are offered.” Tinkoff denied his characterisation of events.

Tinkov also said he had hired bodyguards after friends with contacts in the Russian security services told him he should fear for his life.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5db2e21ce978e272f62fcc3eb5d9da5aebfb290c/0_79_3500_2102/master/3500.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Russian tycoon Oleg Tinkov. Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

[Waltzing]

If you want to see the front line and how thin it is with little equipment and stories of the terrible fates awaiting villages.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/russia-ramps-up-the-pressure-in-eastern-ukraine-we-have-never-seen-such-firepower-a-d99a0a95-49c2-4c43-807b-64f034ab53db

[kiora]

"The China Reckoning
Washington should focus more on its own power and behavior, and the power and behavior of its allies and partners."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-02-13/china-reckoning

[Davexl]

UK inquiry ‘to establish whether British components used in Russian weapons’

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/02/uk-inquiry-british-made-components-russian-weapons-ukraine

[Davexl]

2h ago20.04
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-627029cd8f0804ebf9432c7f#block-627029cd8f0804ebf9432c7f)
Germany said today that it was willing to back an immediate European Union embargo on Russian oil, a policy shift that could lead to the EU imposing a ban within days, reports Reuters.

Russian oil exports have largely been spared from international sanctions, which Ukrainian officials have criticized as allowing countries to still support Russia and fund its invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

However, as the war continues, Ukraine allies – specifically Germany – have come under pressure to take a harsher stance against Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia), including sanctioning its oil exports – Russia’s largest source of income.

“Germany is not against an oil ban on Russia. Of course, it is a heavy load to bear but we would be ready to do that,” said Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, to reporters before talks with his EU colleagues in Brussels.

“With coal and oil, it is possible to forgo Russian imports now,” Christian Lindner, Germany’s finance minister, told Die Welt newspaper. “It can’t be ruled out that fuel prices could rise.”

[Davexl]

3h ago18.58
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-62700e8e8f083e6f90787ddb#block-62700e8e8f083e6f90787ddb)
Afternoon summary

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2018/01/26/unnamed.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&

Rachel Hall

Today, fears grew that a new front in the conflict is opening in Odesa in south-west Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), where a curfew has been extended and rocket strikes took place.

Here are the main developments since 11am UK time this morning:



A Russian rocket strike (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-627008558f083e6f90787d80#block-627008558f083e6f90787d80) hit the Black Sea port city of Odesa in south-western Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), causing deaths and injuries.
A Russian rocket strike hit a strategically important bridge (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626fad478f08c2b874e4f2ff#block-626fad478f08c2b874e4f2ff) across the Dniester estuary in the Odesa region.
Uefa banned Russian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-62700c808f0804ebf9432b6d#block-62700c808f0804ebf9432b6d)football clubs (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-62700c808f0804ebf9432b6d#block-62700c808f0804ebf9432b6d) from participation in the 2022-23 seasons in the Champions League, Europa League and Uefa Nations League.
The UN human rights office (OHCHR) has said that the death toll of civilians (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626fd7b18f083e6f90787b64#block-626fd7b18f083e6f90787b64) killed inUkraine since the start of the Russian invasion has exceeded 3,000 people.
Efforts to evacuate more civilians (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626fcc718f08c2b874e4f451#block-626fcc718f08c2b874e4f451) from the devastated Ukrainian port city of Mariupol ran into delays as hundreds of people remained trapped in the Azovstal steel works, the last stronghold of resistance. The evacuation is seen as the best and possibly last hope for hundreds of trapped civilians.

[Davexl]

10h ago11.46
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-626fb40a8f08c2b874e4f34b#block-626fb40a8f08c2b874e4f34b)
Israel has branded Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s comments that the Nazi leader Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins, “anti-Semitic and dangerous”.

Israel’s foreign minister Yair Lapid said the Russian ambassador would be summoned for “a tough talk” over the assertion, which Lavrov made on Sunday in an interview with Italian television in which he was asked how Russia could say it needed to “denazify” Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), when the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, was Jewish.

“It is an unforgivable, scandalous statement, a terrible historical mistake, and we expect an apology,” Lapid told the YNet news website.

In the interview, Lavrov said:

When they say ‘What sort of nazification is this if we are Jews’, well I think that Hitler also had Jewish origins, so it means nothing.
“For a long time now we’ve been hearing the wise Jewish people say that the biggest anti-Semites are the Jews themselves.”

[Davexl]

48m ago22.36 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-62704dd48f0804ebf9432d8f#block-62704dd48f0804ebf9432d8f)

In his nightly video address, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s comments that the “most rabid antisemites tend to be Jews” showed that Moscow had not learned the right lessons from WWII.
He said:


Russia’s foreign minister openly and without hesitation said that the biggest anti-Semites were allegedly among the Jews themselves. And that Hitler allegedly had Jewish blood. How could this be said on the eve of the anniversary of the victory over Nazism? These words mean that Russia’s top diplomat is blaming the Jewish people for Nazi crimes. No words.

Of course, there is a big scandal in Israel today as regards these words. However, no one hears objections or excuses from Moscow. There is silence. Hence, they agree with what their foreign minister said. After the Russian missile attack at Babyn Yar in Kyiv, after the Menorah damaged by shelling at the site of the mass executions in Drobytsky Yar near Kharkiv, after the deaths of ordinary people who survived the Nazi occupation and Nazi concentration camps from Russian shelling, such an anti-Semitic thrust by their minister means Russia has forgotten all the lessons of World War II.

Or maybe they never studied those lessons. So the question is will the Israeli ambassador stay in Moscow knowing their new position? Will relations with Russia remain as usual? Because it’s not accidental. The words of the Russian foreign minister - a “great connoisseur of Hitlerism” - are not accidental.

It is no coincidence that the Russian occupiers are creating so-called “filtration camps” on Ukrainian land through which thousands of our Ukrainian citizens are passing. Where our people are killed, tortured and raped. It is no coincidence that the occupiers capture civilians and take them hostage or deport them as free labor.

It is no coincidence that they are waging a so-called total war to destroy all living things, after which only the burned ruins of entire cities and villages remain.
To do this, one must completely reject the moral and achievements of the victors of Nazism. But if such people are in the Russian leadership, it does not mean they can judge others in Europe or in the world according to themselves.

[Davexl]

5m ago00.20
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-627063f18f08c2b874e4f962#block-627063f18f08c2b874e4f962)
First civilians to be evacuated from steel plant in Mariupol arrive in Zaporizhzhia

The first civilians to be evacuated from a giant steel plant in Mariupol (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/mariupol-steelworks-evacuees-heading-ukraine-held-city)arrived on Monday in the Ukrainian-held city of Zaporizhzhia after an overnight bus journey across the front-line, Reuters is reporting.
More than 100 civilians evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant arrived safely in Zaporizhia, Ukraine’s military police said in a statement (https://www.facebook.com/UA.Military.Police/posts/358750989618094).

Those evacuated were made up mostly of women, children and the elderly, the police said. The evacuees there will have access to medical care, food, medicine and psychological assistance, police said.

Hundreds of civilians have been trapped for weeks inside the Azovstal plant along with the city’s last Ukrainian defenders. Dozens were able to leave on Sunday in an evacuation organised by the United Nations, the first to escape since Putin ordered the plant barricaded last week.

About 200 civilians, including 20 children, remain at the Mariupol steel plant where Ukrainian soldiers have refused Russian demands to surrender, a Ukrainian official told The Washington Post late Monday local time.

Efforts to organise the evacuation of civilians from other parts of the city, now held by the Russians, ran into several delays.
Before the weekend evacuation, about 1,000 civilians were believed to be in the sprawling, Soviet-era steel plant, along with an estimated 2,000 Ukrainian fighters, according to the Associated Press. As many as 100,000 people may still be in Mariupol.

Civilians evacuated from Mariupol steelworks but hundreds still trapped

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/mariupol-steelworks-evacuees-heading-ukraine-held-city)Read more
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/mariupol-steelworks-evacuees-heading-ukraine-held-city)

31m ago23.54
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-627060078f08c2b874e4f950#block-627060078f08c2b874e4f950)
Germany could back immediate EU ban on Russian oil

Here is a little more detail surrounding Germany’s latest position that it is prepared to back an immediate European Union embargo on Russian oil.

German economy minister Robert Habeck met with EU colleagues in Brussels on Monday where he addressed the country’s stance on an oil embargo.

We have managed to reach a situation where Germany is able to bear an oil embargo. This means it won’t be without consequences.”

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has been more cautious than other western leaders in backing Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), has been under growing pressure to take a firmer line, including from within the Social Democrat’s own governing coalition.

In an interview broadcast Monday, Scholz said sanctions will remain until the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, signs a peace deal with Ukraine.

“We won’t withdraw the sanctions unless he reaches an agreement with Ukraine, and he won’t get that with a dictated peace,” Scholz said on ZDF public television. He said Germany would also not accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

“With coal and oil, it is possible to forgo Russian imports now,” finance minister Christian Lindner told Die Welt newspaper. “It can’t be ruled out that fuel prices could rise.”

The latest stances marks a major shift from Moscow’s biggest energy customer that could let Europe impose such a ban within days.

[Davexl]

2m ago19.35 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-627068f38f08c2b874e4f97f#block-627068f38f08c2b874e4f97f)

Britain to provide £300m more in military aid to Ukraine

Britain has said it will provide £300m ($375m) more in military aid to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), including electronic warfare equipment and a counter-battery radar system, on top of around £200m pounds of assistance so far, Reuters reports.

Britain has sent Ukraine more than 5,000 anti-tank missiles and five air defence systems as well as other munitions and explosives since Russia’s invasion on 24 February, which has destroyed cities and left thousands of people dead or injured.

The United States has provided $3bn of military aid to Ukraine so far, and last week President Joe Biden asked the US Congress to approve more than $20bn in military support.

[Davexl]

30m ago00.44
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-62706c1c8f0804ebf9432e2b#block-62706c1c8f0804ebf9432e2b)
Russia has rerouted internet traffic in the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson through Russian communications infrastructure, the internet service disruption monitor NetBlocks said on Monday.

London-based NetBlocks said it had tracked a near-total internet blackout across Kherson region on Saturday that affected various Ukrainian providers, Reuters reports. Connection was reportedly restored after several hours, but various metrics showed traffic was now going through Russia.

“Connectivity on the network has been routed via Russia’s internet instead of Ukrainian telecoms infrastructure and is hence likely now subject to Russian internet regulations, surveillance, and censorship,” NetBlocks said on its website.

Britain’s ministry of defence said on Sunday that Russian moves in the region are “likely indicative of Russian intent to exert strong political and economic influence in Kherson over the long term”.
It pointed to statements about the use of the rouble and rejections of the possibility of the region’s return to Ukrainian control.

The move appeared aimed at tightening Moscow’s grip on a region where it claims it has taken full control. Russia-appointed authorities in parts of Kherson have said the region would start using the Russian rouble on 1 May.

[Davexl]

3m ago03.25 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-6270900d8f08c2b874e4fab6#block-6270900d8f08c2b874e4fab6)

The European Commission may spare Hungary and Slovakia from a soon-to-be-prepared embargo on buying Russian oil, accounting for the two countries’ dependence on Russian crude, two EU officials said on Monday.

The Commission is expected to finalise on Tuesday work on the next, and sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), which would include a ban on buying Russian oil.

Hungary - which received 58% of its crude oil and oil products imports from Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) last year, according to the International Energy Agency (IAE) - is heavily dependent on Russian oil and has repeatedly said it would not sign up to sanctions involving energy.
Slovakia received 96% of its supply from Russia, according to IEA data.

To keep the 27-nation bloc united, the Commission may offer Slovakia and Hungary “an exemption or a long transition period”, one official said, as reported by Reuters.
The oil embargo is likely to be phased in, most likely taking full effect from the start of next year, officials said. Overall, the EU is dependent on Russia for 26% of its oil imports.

[Davexl]

Huawei defeats US chip ban to post record profits

The Chinese tech giant’s results demonstrate the limitations of US sanctions

https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/huawei-defeats-us-chip-ban-to-post-record-profits/

Excerpt:

"However, the US has never published any evidence (https://www.google.com/url?q=https://news.sky.com/story/huawei-the-company-and-the-security-risks-explained-11620232&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1651132513635639&usg=AOvVaw0dedd8FJlHLKLDquJM2j93) to support the claim that Huawei has actively facilitated espionage activities by Chinese spy agencies, and critics have expressed concerns that the US campaign against Huawei may be driven principally by competitive interests, rather than national-security interests, given Huawei’s dominant position in 5G globally."

[Davexl]

How likely is an Australia-China military conflict?

Australia needs to make preparations for war so China judges the risks of acting now to be unreasonably high

https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/how-likely-is-an-australia-china-military-conflict/

Peter Dutton's comments on ANZAC Day https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie8fC-LVN3k&ab_channel=ABCNews%28Australia%29

[Davexl]

2h ago23.04 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-627083348f0804ebf9432ec9#block-627083348f0804ebf9432ec9)

Push to arm Ukraine putting strain on US weapons stockpile, officials say

The US has provided Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) with much-needed military support including Javelins, Stingers, howitzers and other material being hustled to Eastern Europe to resupply Ukraine’s military in its fight against Russia.
However, a growing concern has emerged as the war drags on: can the US sustain the cadence of shipping vast amounts of arms to Ukraine while maintaining its own stockpile?

The US already has provided about 7,000 Javelins, including some that were delivered during the Trump administration, about one-third of its stockpile, to Ukraine, according to an analysis by Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies international security program.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/27ed35db7bfd299c282e4a0c37bad4eed2670771/0_171_3500_2101/master/3500.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
US marines load an M777 towed 155 mm howitzer into the cargo hold of a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III transport plane, to be delivered to Europe for Ukrainian forces. Photograph: Us Marines/Reuters

Analysts also estimate that the US has sent about one-quarter of its stockpile of shoulder-fired Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investors last week during a quarterly call that his company, which makes the weapons system, wouldn’t be able to ramp up production until next year due to parts shortages.

“Could this be a problem? The short answer is, Probably, yes,’” Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and former government specialist on Pentagon budget strategy, war funding and procurement, told the Associated Press.
Cancian, the former government specialist on defence budget strategy, said the fact that Stingers and Javelins were not included in the most recent tranche of weapons the Biden administration announced it was sending to Ukraine could be a sign that Pentagon officials are mindful about inventory as they conduct contingency planning for other possible conflicts.

“There’s no question that whatever war plan they’re looking at there is risk associated with the depleting levels of Stingers and Javelins, and I’m sure that they’re having that discussion at the Pentagon,” he said.
Pentagon officials recently sat down with some of the leading defence contractors, including Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, General Dynamics, BAE Systems and Northrop Grumman to discuss efforts to ramp up production.

[Davexl]

7m ago06.31
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6270bda48f083e6f907882b6#block-6270bda48f083e6f907882b6)
Russia plans to annex Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk with ‘sham’ elections, US warns

The US earlier warned that Russia plans to formally “annex” the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine’s east.
Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news) told reporters in Washington on Monday:


According to the most recent reports, we believe that Russia will try to annex the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ and ‘Lugansk People’s Republic’ to Russia.
The reports state that Russia plans to engineer referenda upon joining sometime in mid-May.”



“This is straight out of the Kremlin’s playbook,” he added.
Carpenter said that the United States also believed Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) was considering a similar plan in a third region, Kherson, where Moscow has recently solidified its control and imposed use of its ruble currency.


We think the reports are highly credible. Unfortunately we have been more right than wrong in exposing what we believe may be coming next, and so that is part of what we’re trying to do here.
Such sham referenda - fabricated votes - will not be considered legitimate, nor will any attempts to annex additional Ukrainian territory.
But we have to act with a sense of urgency.”



Carpenter said it was also possible that Russia’s leaders would try to take over other parts of Ukraine, by imposing “puppets and proxies” in local governments and forcing out democratically elected officials. He said that this had appeared to be Moscow’s initial aim in Kyiv — a plan that included installing a new constitution in Ukraine — but that Russian forces had been forced to drop back to the country’s east and south after they were unable to take the capital.


19m ago06.19
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-62709f3b8f0804ebf9432f88#block-62709f3b8f0804ebf9432f88)
Summary and welcome

Hello and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

The European Commission is expected to finalise work on the next, and sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia today, which would include a ban on buying Russian oil.

Boris Johnson will become the first world leader to address the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, since the conflict began when he delivers a virtual address to the country’s parliament (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/ukraine-finest-hour-boris-johnson-virtual-address-kyiv-parliament) later today.

It is 8:30am in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine). Here’s everything you might have missed:



Some of the first civilians to be evacuated from a giant steel plant in Mariupol (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/mariupol-steelworks-evacuees-heading-ukraine-held-city) reportedly arrived on Monday in the Ukrainian-held city of Zaporizhzhia after an overnight bus journey stymied by delays across the frontline. More than 100 civilians – mostly women, children and elderly people – were evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant, Ukraine’s military police said in a statement (https://www.facebook.com/UA.Military.Police/posts/358750989618094). Hundreds of people are believed to still be remained trapped in the last stronghold of resistance in the city.
Russia resumed shelling of the Azovstal steel works as soon as buses evacuating civilians from the plant had left on Sunday despite hundreds of civilians remaining trapped inside, Petro Andryushchenko, an aide to the city’s mayor, said.
A Ukrainian fighter in Mariupol has said that up to 200 civilians remain trapped inside bunkers in the Azovstal steelworks despite an evacuation operation led by the United Nations. Captain Sviatoslav Palamar, 39, a deputy commander of Ukraine’s Azov regiment, told Reuters that his fighters could hear the voices of people trapped in bunkers but did not have the equipment needed to dislodge the rubble.
Further evacuations of civilians trapped in Mariupol is set to resume from 7am on Tuesday with the support of the UN and the Red Cross, the city council announced (https://www.facebook.com/mariupolrada.gov.ua/posts/369236738568041).
A Russian rocket strike (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-627008558f083e6f90787d80#block-627008558f083e6f90787d80) hit the Black Sea port city of Odesa in south-western Ukraine, causing deaths and injuries. The strike hit a strategically important bridge across the Dniester estuary. A 14-year-old boy was killed and a 17-year-old girl was wounded, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday. “How did these children and the dormitory threaten the Russian state?” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.
Russian forces in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine – where the bulk of the fighting is taking place – are suffering from poor command and control, low morale, and less than ideal logistics, the US says. “We continue to see minimal, at best, progress by the Russians in the Donbas,” a senior US Defense Department official, said in a statement (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3016826/russians-make-minimal-progress-in-the-donbas-dod-official-says/) on Monday.
Russia is planning to annex Donetsk and Luhansk with ‘sham’ elections, US officials believe. Russia might also consider doing the same in Kherson, where it is already imposing roubles as the official currency. “The reports state that Russia plans to engineer referenda upon joining sometime in mid-May,” Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news), told reporters.
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, was asked to address how Russia could say it needed to “denazify” the country when its president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is Jewish, in an interview with Italian TV. Lavrov respondedthatAdolf Hitler “had Jewish blood” and that the “most rabid antisemites tend to be Jews” while defending Russia’s policy of “denazification” in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), the Kremlin’s term for a sweeping purge that Ukraine says is a pretext for “mass murder.”
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Lavrov’s comments showed that “Russia has forgotten all the lessons of the second world war”. Israel has summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded an apology (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/israel-summons-russia-envoy-sergei-lavrov-hitler-comments) and world leaders condemned the remarks.
Britain has said it will provide £300m ($375m) more in military aid to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), including electronic warfare equipment and a counter-battery radar system, on top of around £200m pounds of assistance so far, Reuters reports.
Boris Johnson will hail Ukraine’s resistance against tyranny as an exemplar for the world as he delivers a virtual address to the country’s parliament (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/ukraine-finest-hour-boris-johnson-virtual-address-kyiv-parliament) on Tuesday. Johnson will become the first world leader to address the Verkhovna Rada since the conflict began.
More than 70 of 90 M-777 howitzers the US planned to send are now in Ukrainian hands, along with over 140,000 155 mm rounds, a senior official with the US department of defence said. Over the last 24 hours, two dozen flights carrying US arms have landed near Ukraine, and another 11 are planned over the coming 24 hours, officials said.
The European commissioner for energy, has said that Russia’s demands for fuel payments to be made in roubles had to be rebuffed (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/02/eu-to-reject-moscow-demands-to-pay-roubles-for-russian-gas) despite the risks of an interruption to supply at a time without alternative gas supply. After a meeting of EU energy ministers, Kadri Simson said that all the energy ministers had accepted that paying in roubles through the mechanism set out by Russia would breach sanctions imposed by the bloc after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).
The European Commission is expected to finalise on Tuesday work on the next, and sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia, which would include a ban on buying Russian oil at the next meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council, the bloc’s chief diplomat said on Monday. However, it may spare Hungary and Slovakia from a soon-to-be-prepared embargo on buying Russian oil, accounting for the two countries’ dependence on Russian crude, two EU officials said on Monday.
Germany said it was prepared to back an immediate EU embargo on Russian oil, a major shift from Moscow’s biggest energy customer that could let Europe impose such a ban within days. “We have managed to reach a situation where Germany is able to bear an oil embargo,” German economy minister Robert Habeck said Monday in Brussels, where he met with EU colleagues. “This means it won’t be without consequences.”

[Davexl]

3m ago01.41 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6270befa8f08c2b874e4fbe9#block-6270befa8f08c2b874e4fbe9)

Johnson to hail Ukrainian resistance in address to parliament, UK pledges another £300m

British prime minister Boris Johnson will hail Ukraine’s resistance against tyranny as an exemplar for the world during a virtual address to the country’s parliament after promising another £300m ($375m) more in military aid to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

Recalling Britain’s resolve during the second world war, Johnson will say that “we remember our time of greatest peril as our finest hour”. He will say the bravery demonstrated by those who have sought to defend their country from Russian invaders means the war will come to be known as Ukraine’s “finest hour”, too.

The speech to Ukrainian MPs reciprocates the move made by the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who gave a historic speech (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/we-will-fight-until-the-end-how-the-papers-covered-zelenskiys-commons-speech) to the House of Commons in March.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ba2524c8b581f6f07f9e9c1c9248da6c9fd2db70/0_80_3000_1800/master/3000.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&

Boris Johnson will hail Ukraine’s resistance against tyranny as an exemplar for the world during a virtual address to the country’s parliament. Photograph: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

Johnson will become the first world leader to address the Verkhovna Rada since the conflict began, and seek to show critics he is focused on international affairs despite continuing questions over his leadership.

Britain has also promised it will provide £300m ($375m) more in military aid to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), including electronic warfare equipment and a counter-battery radar system, on top of around £200m of assistance so far, Reuters reports.

Britain has sent Ukraine more than 5,000 anti-tank missiles and five air defence systems as well as other munitions and explosives since Russia’s invasion on 24 February.

[Panda-NZ-]

The UK has probably been the most helpful out of all EU countries.

Boris has made one good decision at least. :)

[Panda-NZ-]

Germany has a lot to answer for in all this..

Even now they have indecisive leadership.

Deer in the headlights.

[Davexl]

4m ago01.53 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6270c19c8f08c2b874e4fc00#block-6270c19c8f08c2b874e4fc00)

European Union prepares fresh sanctions on Russian oil sales

The European Union is preparing fresh sanctions on Russian oil sales and hopes to pass a possible embargo at the next meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council, the bloc’s chief diplomat said on Monday.
The European Commission, the executive branch of the union, is expected to propose the package of EU sanctions this week, including a potential embargo on buying Russian oil - a measure that would deprive Moscow of a large revenue stream. However, many EU countries remain divided.

Josep Borrell, who chairs the foreign affairs council meetings, said he hopes the EU will be able to take “measures to significantly limit these imports” but conceded so far there is no agreement from all the members.
“But I am confident that, at least with regard to oil imports, this agreement will be possible between now and the next Council meeting,” he added.

Germany said on Monday it was prepared to back an immediate EU embargo on Russian oil. “We have managed to reach a situation where Germany is able to bear an oil embargo,” German economy minister Robert Habeck said.
The European country is Russia’s biggest energy customer and could deprive Moscow of a large revenue stream within days.

In mid-May, EU member states will have to reject Moscow’s demands for fuel payments (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/why-are-eu-energy-firms-agreeing-to-pay-for-russias-gas-in-roubles) to be made in roubles – despite being without alternative gas supply, Brussels has warned.
Kadri Simson, the European commissioner for energy, said on Monday that the Kremlin’s demands had to be rebuffed despite the risks of an interruption to supply at a time that the shortfall cannot be made good.

EU ministers warned that complying in full with Moscow’s demand for gas payments in roubles would breach existing EU sanctions. Ambassadors from EU countries will discuss the proposed oil sanctions when they meet on Wednesday.
Kyiv says Russia’s energy exports to Europe, so far largely exempt from international sanctions, are funding the Kremlin war effort with millions of euros every day.

The European Commission did say it may spare Hungary and Slovakia from any future embargo on buying Russian oil, accounting for the two countries’ dependence on Russian crude, two EU officials said on Monday.

[Joshuatree]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10770737/Russia-quit-International-Space-Station-economic-sanctions-war-Ukraine.html

[Davexl]

2h ago06.59

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6270c4218f08c2b874e4fc1a#block-6270c4218f08c2b874e4fc1a)Russia’s military is now significantly weaker as a result of its invasion of Ukraine, the UK ministry of defence has said in its latest military intelligence report (https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1521366442389741568).
The report, released just before 7am GMT, reads:

Russia’s defence budget approximately doubled between 2005 and 2018, with investment in several high-end air, land and sea capabilities. From 2008 this underpinned the expansive military modernisation programme New Look.

However, the modernisation of its physical equipment has not enabled Russia to dominate Ukraine. Failures both in strategic planning and operational execution have left it unable to translate numerical strength into decisive advantage.

Russia’s military is now significantly weaker, both materially and conceptually, as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. Recovery from this will be exacerbated by sanctions. This will have a lasting impact on Russia’s ability to deploy conventional military force.”

[Davexl]

50m ago08.13 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6270ce638f083e6f9078832d#block-6270ce638f083e6f9078832d)

Mark Voyger is an expert on transatlantic relationships at the Center for European Policy Analysis (https://cepa.org/) and a former special advisor to the US army. He has been interviewed on Sky News in the UK this morning, and told viewers that the virtual address by the UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson to the Ukrainian parliament will be seen as a significant moment of support. He told viewers:




It is absolutely important and critical for Ukraine to see this massive international support being demonstrated in these difficult times. Obviously, we’ve already had multiple high level visits, including the UN General Secretary, and from the European Union’s leadership, the US.
So this is a clear sign to not only the government, but the Ukrainian people, that the west is ready to do what is necessary to help them achieve victory.



On the potential expansion of Nato membership to include Sweden and Finland as a result of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), he said:


Volatile regions are only those that are not members of Nato. The history of those conflicts shows that Russia attacks effectively non-Nato members – that is Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine. It hasn’t dared to touch any an inch of Nato territory yet.

I must say Vladimir Putin with his arrogant aggressive policies in the region has achieved the miracle really of convincing even the Swedes to forego their 300 plus years of neutrality. So I expect them to get fast tracked into Nato. This is a historical chance for them.

Ultimately this will strengthen tremendously the Nato eastern flank because now we’ll have a continuous, contiguous effectively, Nato border from the Arctic ocean down to the Black Sea and the Caucasus. This is of extreme importance in the global efforts in containing Putin’s Russia.

[GTM 3442]

Sometimes the contribution of religion gets undervalued.

https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/05/02/saffronization-a-threat-to-regional-peace-and-stability/

[BlackPeter]

2h ago23.04 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/02/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-evacuations-set-to-continue-explosions-reported-in-russian-city-of-belgorod-live?page=with:block-627083348f0804ebf9432ec9#block-627083348f0804ebf9432ec9)

Push to arm Ukraine putting strain on US weapons stockpile, officials say

The US has provided Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) with much-needed military support including Javelins, Stingers, howitzers and other material being hustled to Eastern Europe to resupply Ukraine’s military in its fight against Russia.
However, a growing concern has emerged as the war drags on: can the US sustain the cadence of shipping vast amounts of arms to Ukraine while maintaining its own stockpile?

The US already has provided about 7,000 Javelins, including some that were delivered during the Trump administration, about one-third of its stockpile, to Ukraine, according to an analysis by Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies international security program.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/27ed35db7bfd299c282e4a0c37bad4eed2670771/0_171_3500_2101/master/3500.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
US marines load an M777 towed 155 mm howitzer into the cargo hold of a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III transport plane, to be delivered to Europe for Ukrainian forces. Photograph: Us Marines/Reuters

Analysts also estimate that the US has sent about one-quarter of its stockpile of shoulder-fired Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told investors last week during a quarterly call that his company, which makes the weapons system, wouldn’t be able to ramp up production until next year due to parts shortages.

“Could this be a problem? The short answer is, Probably, yes,’” Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and former government specialist on Pentagon budget strategy, war funding and procurement, told the Associated Press.
Cancian, the former government specialist on defence budget strategy, said the fact that Stingers and Javelins were not included in the most recent tranche of weapons the Biden administration announced it was sending to Ukraine could be a sign that Pentagon officials are mindful about inventory as they conduct contingency planning for other possible conflicts.

“There’s no question that whatever war plan they’re looking at there is risk associated with the depleting levels of Stingers and Javelins, and I’m sure that they’re having that discussion at the Pentagon,” he said.
Pentagon officials recently sat down with some of the leading defence contractors, including Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, General Dynamics, BAE Systems and Northrop Grumman to discuss efforts to ramp up production.

Just wondering - is it really an issue if the inventory of US anti aircraft and anti tank weapons goes down as long as the enemy tanks and planes go down with at least the same rate?

Would be interesting to know how many well supplied tanks and aircraft the Russian army has left in proportion.

[BlackPeter]

Germany has a lot to answer for in all this..

Even now they have indecisive leadership.

Deer in the headlights.

Actually - it was not Germany attacking Ukraine, wasn't it?

If you really think that playing the blame game is at this stage the most productive thing to do (hint: it never is), then it might be more appropriate to start with the people who never failed to support Putin and populated (and still are populating) Putins rear end. POTUS #45 and all his alt right or plain dumb followers spring to mind ...

[Davexl]

More on the Javelins...at Lockheed Martin factory.

1h ago20.54
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271844f8f08a298acd02b47#block-6271844f8f08a298acd02b47)
Joe Biden is pressing the US Congress to pass his latest spending bill featuring $33bn (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/28/joe-biden-ukraine-military-aid-us-congress) more in military, economic and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

The US president told workers at the Lockheed Martin factory he has just been touring in Troy, Alabama, that the US has supplied more than 5,500 Javelin anti-tank missiles, which this factory manufactures, to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), and it’s making a difference in the war.
“Quite frankly, they’re making fools of the Russian military, in many instances,” Biden said.

He added that each of the Javelins they produce there contain 200 semiconductors, which are crucial components.

“That’s why we’re making it as hard as we can for Russia to get hold of these semiconductors and advanced technologies that it can use to upgrade its military during this conflict ... ”, amid a worldwide shortage of such chips, he said.

Biden notes to the factory workers a Wall Street Journal article quoting a Ukrainian soldier saying that without Javelins it would be very hard to stop Russia pushing ahead further in its invasion.
“So these weapons touched by the hands, your hands, are in the hands of Ukrainian heroes, making a significant difference,” he said.


2h ago20.33
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271810c8f08bc8c65c742c6#block-6271810c8f08bc8c65c742c6)
"If you don't stand up to dictators ... they keep coming" – Joe Biden on Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression

US president Joe Biden is visiting a factory in Troy, Alabama, where arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin makes anti-tank Javelin missiles, which are among the weapons America is supplying to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) as it tries to blunt the Russian invasion of its smaller neighbor to the south.

He began by lauding the “rapid pace” of military equipment and aid from the US to Ukraine in the two months since Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) initiated the war.
“We’ve made sure there are no interruptions in the flow of equipment to Ukraine,” Biden said.

“Since Russia invaded Ukraine more than two months ago, we have sent more than $3bn in security assistance to Ukraine, alone, us, that’s not counting our allies. And that money is a direct investment in defending freedom and democracy itself,” he continued.

Biden then added: “Because if you don’t stand up to dictators, history has shown us, they keep coming, they keep coming. Their appetite for power continues to grow.”

He then praised the workers at the factory, saying their hands had literally touched each missile that is being used by Ukraine to push back the Russian advance, telling them they should be proud.

[Davexl]

3h ago19.25
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-627170b38f08a298acd02a95#block-627170b38f08a298acd02a95)
A Slovak company will repair damaged Ukrainian military equipment following a request from Kyiv, the defense ministry said on Tuesday, and Agence France-Presse is reporting.

The state-run Konstrukta-Defence firm has “concluded a contract with the Ukrainian side on repairing and modernising Ukrainian military technology”, defense ministry spokeswoman Martina Koval Kakascikova said.
The first lot will consist of dozens of BRDM-2 armored reconnaissance vehicles.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/1ac511bb30b9cacc89be42d1e3015eae05ba81af/441_659_5760_3457/master/5760.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
A Ukranian armored scout car BRDM-2 in Kyiv. Photograph: Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images

Slovak prime minister Eduard Heger and defense minister Jaroslav Nad earlier declared their willingness to help Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) with damaged weaponry.




We were asked by Ukraine whether our companies would be able to repair damaged Ukrainian equipment. That is, the damaged equipment would come to Slovakia, we would repair it and the equipment would return to Ukraine,” Nad has said in early April.



Based in Lieskovec in eastern Slovakia, Konstrukta-Defence repairs vehicles and military technology of all categories used by Slovak armed forces, according to the company’s website.
The company also produces self-propelled gun howitzers.
This is Joanna Walters taking over the blog in New York, as the Guardian’s London team has now handed the baton to the US team.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/235babc1f50961658922070222843edd7aaab0b9/0_117_3500_2101/master/3500.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
A damaged Russian MSTA-S 2S19 self-propelled howitzer is seen in Trostianets, Sumy region, Ukraine March 28, 2022. Photograph: Reuters

[Davexl]

5h ago17.39

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271574f8f08a298acd02945#block-6271574f8f08a298acd02945)Summary

It is 7.30pm on Tuesday in Kyiv, and here is a quick catchup of where things stand:



At least 10 people have died and 15 been wounded after Russian forces shelled a coke plant in the city of Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).
Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has passed a law (https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/39307) that bans political parties that justify, recognise or deny Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine.
Putin told Macron “western countries could help stop the crimes of the Ukrainian military”. Putin is also reported to have told Macron about the Russian approach to negotiations with Kyiv.
Russia has launched an attack on the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), where 200 civilians remain trapped underground.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said that a convey of civilians evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in besieged Mariupol has reached Zaporizhzhia.
Germany’s opposition leader has travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian officials, after the country’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, made clear he would not be visiting Ukraine any time soon.
Addressing the Ukrainian parliament virtually on Tuesday, Boris Johnson said “Ukraine will win” against Russia, and “will be free”. Johnson was the first world leader to address the Verkhovna Rada since the conflict began.
Moscow accused Israel of backing the “neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv”. The remarks are the latest in Russia’s diplomatic row with Israel, after the Kremlin’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said on Monday that Adolf Hitler “had Jewish blood”.
Putin ordered retaliatory sanctions against the west. The names of individuals or entities affected by the measures are not included on the document.

Map https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2022/05/ukraine-invasion0305/giv-6562Tpq44tYm4GG4/index_visual_guide.html

[Davexl]

The ICRC, which many of you have donated to, are doing great work and making a difference...

8h ago14.43 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271303d8f08201c8a84bc77#block-6271303d8f08201c8a84bc77)

ICRC convoy of over 100 civilians evacuated from Azovstal has reached Zaporizhzhia

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has said that a convey of civilians evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in besieged Mariupol has reached Zaporizhzhia.

In a statement (https://www.icrc.org/en/document/ukraine-civilians-leave-azovstal-safe-passage-operation), the ICRC said:

A convoy of buses and ambulances accompanied by ICRC and UN teams was joined by families and individuals in private vehicles along the way. More than 100 people, including some who were wounded, reached Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday. Other people from the plant went elsewhere; the ICRC did not organise nor accompany these civilian movements.

ICRC president Peter Maurer is quoted as saying:

It is an immense relief that some civilians who have suffered for weeks are now out. The ICRC hasn’t forgotten the people who are still there, nor those in other areas affected by the hostilities or those in dire need of humanitarian relief, wherever they are. We will not spare any effort to reach them.

The ICRC statement says that “as a neutral and impartial humanitarian intermediary, the ICRC has been facilitating the intensive confidential dialogue between the parties on the safe passage of civilians since late February”.

Earlier, the mayor of Mariupol said that at least 200 civilians remain trapped in the steel plant alongside fighters, and that 100,000 civilians remain in Mariupol as a whole.

[Davexl]

25m ago23.49
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271adca8f08a5c31f5b18a5#block-6271adca8f08a5c31f5b18a5)
Zelenskiy thanked British prime minister Boris Johnson for his support to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) in his national address.

Referring to Johnson’s address to Ukraine’s parliament, Zelenskiy said his British counterpart gave a “very sincere gesture”.
“These were very important words, warm, friendly, powerful. This is a very sincere gesture,” he added. “I am also grateful to Britain for the new package of support for our country, which the Prime Minister announced today.”

Zelenskiy also also said he spoke with representatives of the largest global companies - in the CEO Wall Street Journal club about how to “put pressure on Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) to end the war”.

“This is a very influential club. Three trillion dollars is the total turnover of companies whose leaders are in this club,” he said.


42m ago23.32 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271aaa08f08bc8c65c743ce#block-6271aaa08f08bc8c65c743ce)

156 evacuated from Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has confirmed 156 people were successfully evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol after arriving in Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday.
In his national address (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/zavdayuchi-udariv-po-ukrayinskih-mistah-rosiya-namagayetsya-74753), Zelenskiy added that a ceasefire was needed in order to make the humanitarian corridor work.

We finally have the result, the first result of our evacuation operation from Azovstal in Mariupol, which we have been organising for a very long time. It took a lot of effort, long negotiations and various mediations.


Today 156 people arrived in Zaporizhzhia. Women and children. They have been in shelters for more than two months. Just imagine! For example, a child is six months old, two of which are underground, fleeing bombs and shelling. Finally, these people are completely safe. They will get help.



However, Russian troops are not adhering to the agreements of a ceasefire, Zelenskiy added.

They continue massive strikes at Azovstal. They are trying to storm the complex. But I have been told many times that no one can be saved. That it is impossible. And today 156 people are in Zaporizhzhia. This is not a victory yet, but this is already a result. And I believe that there is a chance to save our other people.”

“The more such strikes, the farther Russia is from civilisation. From what is called civilisedness,” he added.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/151770a0aa87d970c29b5d289245bbefef18a0f8/0_0_8132_5424/master/8132.jpg?width=445&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&
Evacuated people from the Russian-occupied Tokmak town arrive on a bus at the evacuation point in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Tuesday. Photograph: Roman Pilipey/EPA

[Davexl]

3m ago00.21 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271b7628f08a5c31f5b18ea#block-6271b7628f08a5c31f5b18ea)

EU drafts proposal to phase in a ban on Russian oil, members seek sanctions opt-outs

EU officials handed over a draft plan to member states on a new package of sanctions on Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) late on Tuesday, but divisions between how an oil embargo would work continues.

Ambassadors from the 27 European Union countries will meet on Wednesday to give the plan a once-over, and it will need unanimous approval before going into effect.

The commission’s proposal would phase in a ban on oil imports from Russia over six to eight months, with Hungary and Slovakia allowed to take a few months longer, EU officials told AFP.

But Slovakia, which like Hungary is almost 100% dependent for fuel on Russian crude coming through the Druzbha pipeline, has said it will need several years.

Slovakia’s refinery is designed to work with Russian oil and would need to be thoroughly overhauled or replaced to deal with imports from elsewhere - an expensive and lengthy process.

Other officials, speaking on condition of anonymity during the legally and diplomatically fraught negotiation, said Bulgaria and the Czech Republic could also seek sanctions opt-outs.

One European diplomat warned that granting exemptions to one or two highly-dependent states could trigger a domino effect of exemption demands that would undermine the embargo.


The European Commission is not planning to unveil the draft in public before its president, Ursula von der Leyen, addresses the European Parliament on Wednesday.

[Davexl]

41m ago02.17
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271c2838f08bc8c65c7444b#block-6271c2838f08bc8c65c7444b)
Here is a little more detail on the meeting between Germany’s opposition leader and Ukraine’s president in Kyiv on Tuesday.

Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s Christian Democrats who lost power in last September’s election, said Ukraine’s battle against Russian invaders was a fight on behalf of freedom everywhere, raising pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to make an appearance in the Ukrainian capital.

Merz said he would brief Scholz on his Ukraine trip, during which he toured the bombed-out town of Irpin before heading to nearby Kyiv for talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

These aren’t images you forget in a hurry,” he said of the destruction. “It’s not enough to see it on television: you have to see it in person to understand the extent of the tragedy.


The Chancellor (Scholz) is right that it’s not just Ukraine that’s being defended here, but democracy and freedom - the very way we live in Germany.”



Although Germany has become among the largest suppliers of arms to Kyiv, Berlin has been criticised for hesitating before agreeing to send heavy weapons and for its earlier support for dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

[Davexl]

‘They bombed every second’: evacuees’ horror weeks in Azovstal steel plant

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/04/evacuees-tell-of-horror-weeks-inside-azovstal-steel-plant-mariupol-ukraine

[Davexl]

A story of tragedy and survival...

36m ago02.32

A Ukrainian nurse who lost both her legs when a landmine exploded has shared her first wedding dance with her new husband in a hospital ward in Lviv.

Footage of the newlyweds Oksana Balandina and Viktor Vasyliv, both 23, has since gone viral.

Balandina lost both her legs weeks earlier when a landmine exploded on 27 March, a little over a month after Russia invaded, as the couple walked home in Lysychansk in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region.

“I only managed to shout to him [Vasyliv]: ‘Honey, look!’”, said Balandina, as she recalled to Reuters the moment it happened.
“He looked at me when the mine exploded. I fell down with my face on the ground. There was an extreme noise in my head. Then I turned around and I started to tear off the clothing on me. I thought it would be easier to breathe because there was not enough air,” she added.

Vasyliv, who was walking behind her, was unhurt.

https://twitter.com/LesNews24/status/1521484721980465152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521484721980465152%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld% 2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F03%2Frussia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live%3Fpage%3Dwith%3Ablock-6271c2838f08bc8c65c7444bblock-6271c2838f08bc8c65c7444b

“When it happened, I gave up in despair, I did not know what to do. I saw her not moving,” he said.

“If it was not for Oksana, I don’t know what would have happened. She is so strong. She did not faint. It was Oksana who coordinated our actions,” he added.

Balandina has spent the last month being treated in various hospitals around the country. In the end, doctors had to amputate both of her legs and four fingers of her left hand.

“I did not want to live… I didn’t want to live such life, I have two children. I didn’t want them to see me like this. I did not want to be a burden for anyone in my family,” said Balandina, speaking in hospital.

“But thanks to the support, I accepted it. I need to keep living. It is not the end of the life. If God left me alive, that’s my destiny.”

Her two children - a 7-year-old son and 5-year-old daughter - are now safe with their grandparents in the Poltava region in central Ukraine.
After celebrating their wedding in hospital, the couple are hoping to travel to Germany where Balandina will get prosthetic legs and undergo rehabilitation.

[Davexl]

23m ago22.29 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271e19c8f08a298acd02d6d#block-6271e19c8f08a298acd02d6d)

Russia's shows 'shocking intelligence failure' and 'incredible arrogance', British defence says

The head of the British armed forces has said he is surprised by the Russian failings in its military campaign that started with poor intelligence and led to catastrophic outcomes.

Admiral Sir Antony Radakin, chief of the British defence staff, told the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-05-03/card/british-defense-chief-says-putin-s-early-ukraine-objectives-failed-3JrTLaOIbilsgpfZebSY)’s CEO Council Summit in London on Tuesday he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin was in charge of the campaign and showing traits of an autocratic leader who was becoming increasingly isolated.

Their decision making rarely improves, and their decision making gets worse.


We have been surprised at the way Russia has gone about this.”



Russia expected that it could invade Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), take cities in days and take control of the country in 30 days, he added. He said failing in this effort was the consequence of a “shocking intelligence failure and it’s also an incredible arrogance.”
“Whatever their endgame is, it is drastically different from their start game,” Adm. Radakin said.

The campaign started with the ambition of taking the whole of Ukraine, pushing back Nato and demonstrating Russia’s power and authority.

“All of those have failed, Nato has never been stronger,” he said. “The notion that the Ukraine people somehow would choose to orient themselves toward Russia now looks absurd.”

“The idea you would run out of fuel when you are just 100 miles into Ukraine is just slightly bizarre,” he added, speaking of Russian convoys that stalled in the early days of the war.

[Panda-NZ-]

Russia's top general Valery Gerasimov wounded (rumour).

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-cant-confirm-top-russian-general-wounded-during-donbas-visit-us-official-says-2022-05-02/

[Davexl]

2h ago23.32 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271e6c98f08a5c31f5b19e8#block-6271e6c98f08a5c31f5b19e8)

Australia has slapped more sanctions on another 110 Russian politicians and individuals, seeking to punish Moscow for recognising two Russian-controlled regions in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) as independent.

Australia listed sanctions against 76 Russian politicians and 34 “puppet” Ukrainian government officials installed in the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Australia’s foreign minister Marise Payne confirmed on Wednesday.

“These individuals have violated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine through their assertion of governmental authority over areas of Ukraine without the Ukrainian Government’s authorisation,” Payne said.

Australia has so far sanctioned 812 individuals—including other Russian lawmakers, oligarchs and family members—and 47 entities in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

[Davexl]

1h ago05.00

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271f5c98f08bc8c65c74572#block-6271f5c98f08bc8c65c74572)A significant Ukrainian counter offensive has pushed Russian forces roughly 40km east of the city of Kharkiv, the institute for the study of war has said in its latest intelligence report (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3).
The counter offensive could set conditions for a broader operation to drive the Russians from most of their positions around the city, the organisation added.

Map https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1521636222493335552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521636222493335552%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld% 2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F03%2Frussia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live%3Fpage%3Dwith%3Ablock-6271c2838f08bc8c65c7444bblock-6271c2838f08bc8c65c7444b

[BlackPeter]

Russia's top general Valery Gerasimov wounded (rumour).

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-cant-confirm-top-russian-general-wounded-during-donbas-visit-us-official-says-2022-05-02/

Well, if the rumour is true - it could have hardly hit a better one. The butcher of Syria clearly needs some time out.

[BlackPeter]

1h ago05.00

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/03/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live?page=with:block-6271f5c98f08bc8c65c74572#block-6271f5c98f08bc8c65c74572)A significant Ukrainian counter offensive has pushed Russian forces roughly 40km east of the city of Kharkiv, the institute for the study of war has said in its latest intelligence report (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3).
The counter offensive could set conditions for a broader operation to drive the Russians from most of their positions around the city, the organisation added.

Map https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1521636222493335552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521636222493335552%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld% 2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F03%2Frussia-ukraine-war-moscow-plans-to-annex-donetsk-and-luhansk-us-says-britain-pledges-another-300m-in-military-aid-live%3Fpage%3Dwith%3Ablock-6271c2838f08bc8c65c7444bblock-6271c2838f08bc8c65c7444b

Excellent news ...

[Davexl]

4m ago01.47

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-627212e48f08a5c31f5b1adf#block-627212e48f08a5c31f5b1adf)The armed forces of Belarus began sudden large-scale drills on Wednesday to test their combat readiness, its defence ministry said.

“It is planned that the (combat readiness) test will involve the movement of significant numbers of military vehicles, which can slow down traffic on public roads,” the Belarusian ministry said in a statement, as reported by Reuters.

Against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), the ministry said the exercise posed no threat to its neighbours or the European community in general.

Areas of Ukraine adjacent to Belarus, including its capital Kyiv, came under Russian assault in the initial stage of the invasion which began in late February and followed joint drills held by Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) and Belarus.


14m ago06.36
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62720eec8f08a5c31f5b1ac2#block-62720eec8f08a5c31f5b1ac2)
EU to unveil Russian oil sanctions

The European Union is expected to outline oil sanctions against Moscow with ambassadors from the 27 European Union countries set to meet today to give the plan a once-over before final approval.

EU officials handed over a draft plan to member states on a new package of sanctions on Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) late on Tuesday, but divisions between how an oil embargo would work continues.

The commission’s proposal would phase in a ban on oil imports from Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) over six to eight months, with Hungary and Slovakia allowed to take a few months longer, EU officials told AFP.

But Slovakia, which like Hungary is almost 100% dependent for fuel on Russian crude coming through the Druzbha pipeline, has said it will need several years.
Slovakia’s refinery is designed to work with Russian oil and would need to be thoroughly overhauled or replaced to deal with imports from elsewhere - an expensive and lengthy process.

Other officials, speaking on condition of anonymity during the legally and diplomatically fraught negotiation, said Bulgaria and the Czech Republic could also seek sanctions opt-outs.

One European diplomat warned that granting exemptions to one or two highly-dependent states could trigger a domino effect of exemption demands that would undermine the embargo.

The European Commission is not planning to unveil the draft in public before its president, Ursula von der Leyen, addresses the European Parliament on Wednesday.

[Davexl]

49m ago06.08

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-627207af8f08a5c31f5b1aa0#block-627207af8f08a5c31f5b1aa0)Russia deploys more troops near Izium, Kharkiv, UK MoD says

Russia has deployed 22 battalion tactical groups near Izium in the Kharkiv region of eastern Ukraine in its attempt to advance along the northern axis of the Donbas, the UK ministry of defence has said.

Despite struggling to break through Ukrainian defences and build momentum, Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) “highly likely” intends to proceed beyond Izium to capture the cities of Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk, British intelligence added.

“Capturing these locations would consolidate Russian military control of the north-eastern Donbas and provide a staging point for their efforts to cut-off Ukrainian forces in the region.”

[Davexl]

2h ago08.08

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-627225a18f08a5c31f5b1b67#block-627225a18f08a5c31f5b1b67)https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Daniel-Boffey,-L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&

Daniel Boffey

Daniel Boffey reports for us from Brussels on the contents of Ursula von der Leyen’s speech to the European parliament:

The European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has been detailing her proposal to the member states on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), which includes a total ban on oil imports.

She has listed the main themes of the proposal.

“First, we are listing high-ranking military officers and other individuals who committed war crimes in Bucha and who are responsible for the inhuman siege of the city of Mariupol. This sends another important signal to all perpetrators of the Kremlin’s war: we know who you are, and you will be held accountable.

“Second, we de-Swift SberBank – by far Russia’s largest bank, and two other major banks. By that, we hit banks that are systemically critical to the Russian financial system and Putin’s ability to wage destruction. This will solidify the complete isolation of the Russian financial sector from the global system.

“Third, we are banning three big Russian state-owned broadcasters from our airwaves. They will not be allowed to distribute their content anymore in the EU, in whatever shape or form be it on cable, via satellite, on the internet or via smartphone apps. We have identified these TV channels as mouthpieces that amplify Putin ́s lies and propaganda aggressively. We should not give them a stage anymore to spread these lies. Moreover, the Kremlin relies on accountants, consultants and spin-doctors from Europe. And this will now stop. We are banning those services from being provided to Russian companies.

“My final point on sanctions: When the leaders met in Versailles, they agreed to phase out our dependency on Russian energy. In the last sanction package, we started with coal. Now we are addressing our dependency on Russian oil. Let us be clear: it will not be easy. Some member states are strongly dependent on Russian oil. But we simply have to work on it.

“We now propose a ban on Russian oil. This will be a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline, crude and refined. We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion, in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimises the impact on global markets. This is why we will phase out Russian supply of crude oil within six months and refined products by the end of the year.

“Thus, we maximise pressure on Russia, while at the same time minimising collateral damage to us and our partners around the globe. Because to help Ukraine, our own economy has to remain strong.”

[Davexl]

1h ago08.24

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-627229708f08bc8c65c74697#block-627229708f08bc8c65c74697)Ukraine has said it does not ruled out the possibility that Russia could use armed forces from Belarus in the war.

Reuters reports that after Belarus began military drills, Ukrainian state border service spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said: “We do not rule out that the Russian Federation could at some point use the territory of Belarus, the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus, against Ukraine. Therefore, we are ready.”

Demchenko claimed Ukraine’s border with Belarus had been “strengthened” since the latest Russian invasion began on 24 February.

[Davexl]

22m ago09.32

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-627239848f08a5c31f5b1bf8#block-627239848f08a5c31f5b1bf8)The European Union is considering additional military support to Moldova, EU Council President Charles Michel said on a visit to Chișinău.

The 27-nation bloc is looking into how it can provide more military support to Moldova, including more help in building up the country’s forces, Michel told a joint news conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu.

Reuters reports he said this would come on top of help in the fields of logistics and cyber defence that the EU had already agreed. Michel refused to give any details but said it was extremely important to avoid any escalation.

[Davexl]

4m ago09.51
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62723df38f08a298acd02f9f#block-62723df38f08a298acd02f9f)
Russia's defence minister: Ukrainian forces in Azovstal are 'securely blocked'

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has said that the remaining Ukrainian forces in the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol are “securely blocked”.
Russia’s RIA news agency quotes (https://ria.ru/20220504/azovstal-1786749623.html) the minister saying:

In accordance with the instructions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the remnants of the militants located in the industrial zone of the Azovstal plant are securely blocked along the entire perimeter of this territory.

Repeated proposals to the nationalists to release civilians and lay down their arms with a guarantee of saving lives and decent treatment in accordance with the norms of international law by them ignored. We continue these attempts.

[Davexl]

Japanese Lawmakers Argue for Counterstrike Capability for Self Defense Force

https://news.usni.org/2022/05/03/japanese-lawmakers-argue-for-counterstrike-capability-for-self-defense-force?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=ca0504924a-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-ca0504924a-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=ca0504924a&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89
(https://news.usni.org/2022/05/03/japanese-lawmakers-argue-for-counterstrike-capability-for-self-defense-force?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=ca0504924a-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-ca0504924a-234966018&ct=t%28USNI_NEWS_DAILY%29&mc_cid=ca0504924a&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89)
Excerpt:

"Of equal concern to the Komeito party is the Liberal Democrats’ five-year plan (https://news.usni.org/2022/04/28/japans-ruling-party-calls-for-counter-attack-capability-increased-defense-budget) to boost Tokyo’s defense spending to 2 percent of its gross domestic product. This is in line with the goal set by NATO in 2014 following Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine.

“You’re looking at roughly doubling” of Japan’s defense spending, said the Council of Foreign Relations’ Sheila Smith. If the spending plan is adopted as proposed, there would no longer be annual debates on defense spending. “Those monies have to come from somewhere,” she noted, referring to a major concern for future domestic spending if GDP slips.

The proposal will not count Japan’s coast guard or military pensions in reaching the 2 percent goal.
The increased spending plan was in line with Germany’s promise after Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine to also meet the 2 percent goal. It projects greater spending on cyber, space, research and development and to “boldly make use” of the commercial sector and universities in those domains, Onodera added.

[Waltzing]

What is the NZ defence budget ? No missile defence, no fighters , well better get some drones then for the army, navy and airforce.

Russia what a sad place not really a country even.

https://www.rbth.com/travel/334935-largest-peoples-caucasus


https://time.com/6164291/russias-problems-beyond-putin/

Apparently no one much carries out government plans except the KGB.

Killing people or putting them in jail or labour camps.

Really how did europe get it so wrong. Its like 1936 everyone just turned a blind eye to it.

[GTM 3442]

Offense vs defense.

Defense wins.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/04/russia-ukraine-aggression-in-age-defensive-dominance/

[Davexl]

3h ago19.00

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272bb808f08a298acd036e2#block-6272bb808f08a298acd036e2)Summary

It is 9pm in Kyiv. Here’s where we stand now:



Russian forces have entered the territory of the Azovstal plant in the besieged city of Mariupol, according to Ukraine’s ruling parliamentary faction head, David Arakhamia. Arakhamia said as of Wednesday evening contact remained between Ukraine’s government and the Ukrainian fighters in the plant (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272b9718f08a5c31f5b237d#block-6272b9718f08a5c31f5b237d), after Mariupol’s mayor, Vadym Boichenko, earlier said contact had been lost with the Azovstal defenders. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-627290a68f08a5c31f5b20fa#block-627290a68f08a5c31f5b20fa)



As many as 600 people were killed in a Russian bombing of a theatre in the devastated Ukrainian city of Mariupol in March, according to an investigation by Associated Press. Based on the accounts of nearly two dozen survivors, rescuers and people intimately familiar with the theatre, AP found evidence that the attack was in fact twice deadlier than estimated. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272b3808f08bc8c65c74dc7#block-6272b3808f08bc8c65c74dc7)



The bodies of 20 more civilians were found in the past 24 hours in the Kyiv region, according to Kyiv regional police chief, Andriy Nebytov. The latest discoveries, found in the town of Borodianka and the surrounding villages, raise the total number of civilian bodies found in the region so far to 1,235. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62729fc68f08a5c31f5b2239#block-62729fc68f08a5c31f5b2239)



The European Union is proposing to ban all Russian oil imports in a sixth package of sanctions. The European Commission’s president,Ursula von der Leyen, said Putin had to pay a “high price for his brutal aggression” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/04/ursula-von-der-leyen-says-putin-must-pay-high-price-as-she-proposes-oil-ban) in Ukraine. Hungary’s international relations minister, Zoltán Kovács, said his country will veto the EU’s proposal.
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272a1f08f08a5c31f5b225a#block-6272a1f08f08a5c31f5b225a)



The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, is reportedly on the draft blacklist of the EU’s next round of sanctions. An EU document claims Kirillhas been “one of the most prominent supporters of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62728b748f08bc8c65c74b46#block-62728b748f08bc8c65c74b46) and a key player in amplifying Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric on Ukraine.



Ukraine has accused Russia of planning to hold a ‘Victory Day’ military parade in the captured city of Mariupol on 9 May to celebrate victory over the Nazis in the second world war. Ukraine’s military intelligence said an official from Russia’s presidential administration had arrived in Mariupol, to oversee plans for the parade. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272994c8f08bc8c65c74c7b#block-6272994c8f08bc8c65c74c7b)



Britain has banned all service exports to Russia as new sanctions against 63 individuals and organisations have been announced. The measures, announced by Britain’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss, would cut off Russia’s access to the UK’s accounting, management consulting and PR services. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62726d2f8f08bc8c65c749d6#block-62726d2f8f08bc8c65c749d6) However, it is understood that the measures will not affect the legal profession or other important services (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62729bb38f08a5c31f5b221f#block-62729bb38f08a5c31f5b221f) sectors such as software development and cloud services.

[Davexl]

47m ago21.24

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272ddca8f08bc8c65c74f16#block-6272ddca8f08bc8c65c74f16)Ukrainian forces engaged in ‘bloody battles’ at Azovstal steelworks

Inside Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, Ukrainian forces are fighting “difficult bloody battles” against Russian troops, Reuters reports.

“I am proud of my soldiers who are making superhuman efforts to contain the pressure of the enemy ... the situation is extremely difficult,” Denis Prokopenko, the commander of the far-right Azov regiment, said in a video message on Telegram.

Russian forces entered the territory (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/04/contact-lost-ukraine-troops-staging-last-stand-mariupol) of Mariupol’s Azovstal steelworks on Wednesday, a Ukrainian official said. Video from a Russia-backed account reportedly shows airstrikes (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/05/04/ukraine-steel-plant-mariupol-russia-explosions-ath-vpx.cnn) hitting the plant as civilians seek refuge inside, but it’s not entirely clear when the strikes happened.


1h ago21.02
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272db7d8f08bc8c65c74f0b#block-6272db7d8f08bc8c65c74f0b)
Ninety per cent of howitzer long-ranged weapons that were pledged to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) from the US have been transferred, said a senior US defence official, via CNN.

https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1521916344861663232?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521916344861663232%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld% 2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F04%2Frussia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live


2h ago20.39

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272d6148f08a5c31f5b2478#block-6272d6148f08a5c31f5b2478)French president Emmanuel Macron and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will have a “working dinner” tonight as Macron hopes to prise Delhi away from Russia over the invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

From AFP:

Macron would “emphasise the consequences of the war for the international order well beyond the European Union, including in Asia,” his office said ahead of the talks.

France wants to “help the Indians diversify their supply” away from Russian arms and energy, officials added.
The aim “is not to leave the Indians with no way out, but to offer solutions,” they said.

After meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on Monday as part of a European tour, Modi told reporters that “there won’t be any winners in this war and everyone will lose”.
India has so far avoided condemning the Russian invasion or voting to censure Moscow at the United Nations.

The Elysee said Macron has an “extremely warm relationship” with Modi, who has visited France three times since 2017, while the French leader went to India in 2018.
France has a “trusting relationship with India,” officials added, and hopes to build up the two countries’ “strategic partnership” in the Indo-Pacific.

Securing France’s place in the region is especially important after Britain, the United States and Australia last year sealed their AUKUS security pact - dumping a lucrative French contract to supply Canberra’s next generation of submarines along the way.

India has bought dozens of French Rafale fighter jets and six submarines, and cooperates with Paris on civil nuclear projects.
French state-owned energy giant EDF wants to build six next-generation EPR reactors in Jaitapur on India’s west coast.

The Elysee said it was pushing hard to get that deal signed, fitting in with Macron’s vow ahead of his re-election last month to renew France’s nuclear industry and replace its fleet of ageing power plants.

[Davexl]

2h ago19.52

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272c97c8f08a5c31f5b2410#block-6272c97c8f08a5c31f5b2410)Russia says it will open humanitarian corridors to allow civilians out of the Azovstal steel plant, reports Reuters, citing Interfax agency.

Russian officials have said they will open up the safe passage routes on 5 May, 6 May, and 7 May to evacuate a number of civilians who have been hiding in the steel plant in the besieged city of Mariupol.

Military activities will cease during that time and units will be withdrawn to a safe distance, said Russia’s military.

[Bjauck]

“The idea you would run out of fuel when you are just 100 miles into Ukraine is just slightly bizarre,” he added, speaking of Russian convoys that stalled in the early days of the war. I read that Russian soldiers sold some of their fuel on the black market in Belarus!

[Davexl]

3h ago19.12

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272c09d8f08bc8c65c74e64#block-6272c09d8f08bc8c65c74e64)Global food security needs cannot be solved without help from Russia and Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), said the UN chief today, as Reuters reports.
The UN secretary-general, António Guterres, said today that the issue of global food security could not be solved without restoring Ukraine’s agricultural output and Russia’s food and fertilizer contributions to the global market.

“Our analysis indicates that the war in Ukraine is only making things worse, setting in motion a three-dimensional crisis that is devastating global food, energy and financial systems for developing countries,” said Guterres to reporters in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital.

“There is really no true solution to the problem of global food security without bringing back the agriculture production of Ukraine and the food and fertilizer production of Russia and Belarus into world market despite the war,” noted Guterres, adding that he is determined to help facilitate dialogue between Russia and Ukraine to meet food production goals.

In April, Nigeria had to buy emergency supplies of Canadian potash after the country could not import the key fertilizer from Russia due to the impact of Western sanctions, said the head of Nigeria’s sovereign investment authority NSIA.

The International Monetary Fund also reported last month that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had delivered a further “huge negative shock” to sub-Saharan Africa, increasing the price of food and energy and placing the most vulnerable people at risk of hunger.

[Bjauck]

What is the NZ defence budget ? No missile defence, no fighters , well better get some drones then for the army, navy and airforce.
.... NZ Government is scared about increasing taxes to pay for more robust defence, because NZ voters would kick them out...

[fungus pudding]

NZ Government is scared about increasing taxes to pay for more robust defence, because NZ voters would kick them out...

They will anyway.

[Davexl]

What is the NZ defence budget ? No missile defence, no fighters , well better get some drones then for the army, navy and airforce.


C/o- GTM 3442

As I understand it, the NZ defence budget is about 1,5% of GDP at about $4.5 billion.
About 40 to 50 percent up from it's low point in the 2010s
To take it to NATO's 2% would put at about $6 billion.

Out of idle curiosity, where would the extra $1.5 billion go?


C/o- Davexl

For a start, stand-off missile systems, air defence, extra ships and patrol aircraft, drones.
Anything needed to update our defences from Vietnam era thinking and arming to modern warfare doctrines as we are seeing in the world right now. And more importantly - upgrading readiness...
Certainly not merely on replacement buildings and new paint jobs...

The 2 ANZAC frigates have basically completed their upgrades in Canada, a new Offshore Patrol vessel is about to be launched, the P8's training is well underway, new supply & logistics ships have been delivered, now all we need is a strike wing back and some extra frigates (maybe built by South Korea, modular builds) and I would be happy.

https://www.defence.govt.nz/publications/publication/defence-capability-plan-2019
(https://www.defence.govt.nz/publications/publication/defence-capability-plan-2019)

[Davexl]

44m ago22.38

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-6272eee78f08a5c31f5b2556#block-6272eee78f08a5c31f5b2556)The US has reportedly offered security assurances to Sweden in the event that it submits an application to join Nato.

Reuters reports thatAnn Linde, Sweden’s foreign minister, said Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, assured her Sweden would receive support during the period a potential application to join the alliance is processed. Sweden, as well as its neighbor Finland, stayed out of Nato during the cold war, but the countries are now rethinking security policies after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion of Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).

The application could take up to a year to be approved by the alliance’s members, and Sweden and Finland are concerned they would be vulnerable in that time.

Russia has said it could deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in the European exclave of Kaliningrad if the countries were to join Nato.

“Naturally, I’m not going to go into any details, but I feel very sure that now we have an American assurance,” said Linde, who didn’t say what specific assurances she had received.

“They would mean that Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) can be clear that if they direct any kind of negative activities against Sweden, which they have threatened, it would not be something that the US would just allow to happen ... without a response,” she said.

[ronaldson]

I have seen no comment in the press regarding NZ's attitude now to the Russian citizens that come regularly on a fly in/fly out basis to crew some off-shore fishing vessels that operate out of NZ. Remember, some inbound arrivals brought Covid last year necessitating stays in MIQ facilities and were the subject of publicity at the time, pre the Ukraine Special Military Operation being initiated. Is this practice now banned/precluded by sanctions or have we prioritised continued fishing activity?

[Davexl]

2h ago00.47
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62730cc68f08a5c31f5b25eb#block-62730cc68f08a5c31f5b25eb)
Russia practises nuclear-capable missile strikes, ministry says

Russia has said its forces practised simulated nuclear-capable missile strikes in the western enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast.

Russia practised simulated “electronic launches” of nuclear-capable Iskander mobile ballistic missile systems on Wednesday, the defence ministry said in a statement.

The Russian forces practised single and multiple strikes at targets imitating launchers of missile systems, airfields, protected infrastructure, military equipment and command posts of a mock enemy, AFP cited the statement as saying.

After performing the “electronic” launches, the military personnel carried out a manoeuvre to change their position in order to avoid “a possible retaliatory strike,” the defence ministry added.

The combat units also practised “actions in conditions of radiation and chemical contamination”.
The drills reportedly involved more than 100 servicemen.

Russia placed nuclear forces on high alert shortly after Putin sent troops to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) on 24 February and the Russian President has hinted at deploying tactical nuclear weapons, warning of a “lightning fast” retaliation if the west directly intervenes in the Ukraine conflict.

Russia’s state television has attempted to make nuclear weapons use more palatable to the public, according to some who spoke to AFP.

“For two weeks now, we have been hearing from our television screens that nuclear silos should be opened,” Russian newspaper editor and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov said.

[Davexl]

27m ago01.59
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62731e4e8f08a5c31f5b2658#block-62731e4e8f08a5c31f5b2658)
The United States has provided intelligence that has helped Ukrainian forces kill many of the Russian generals who have died in the Ukraine war, the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/politics/russia-generals-killed-ukraine.html)reported on Wednesday, citing senior US officials.

The targeting help is part of a classified effort by the Biden administration to provide real-time battlefield intelligence to Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), the newspaper said.

Washington has reportedly provided to Ukraine details on Russia’s expected troop movements and the location and other details about Russia’s mobile military headquarters, and Ukraine has combined that help with its own intelligence to conduct artillery strikes and other attacks that have killed Russian officers.

Intelligence also includes anticipated Russian troop movements gleaned from recent American assessments of Moscow’s secret battle plan for the fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, the officials said.

Ukrainian officials said they have killed about 12 Russian generals on the battlefield, according to the New York Times. Officials declined to specify how many generals had been killed as a result of US assistance, the newspaper added.

[Davexl]

15m ago03.06
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/04/russia-ukraine-war-russia-attacks-azovstal-steel-plant-after-first-evacuated-civilians-reach-safety-live?page=with:block-62731fc98f08bc8c65c750cb#block-62731fc98f08bc8c65c750cb)
A Russian army helicopter violated Finland’s airspace on Wednesday, the Finnish defence ministry said, as the country mulls a potential Nato membership bid.

“The aircraft type is a Mi-17 helicopter and the depth of the suspected violation is about four to five kilometres”, a ministry spokesman told AFP.
The incident occurred on Wednesday at 10:40am (7:40 GMT).

This is the second Russian airspace violation this year, following a previous one in April, both of them coming in the wake of the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine).
A civilian transport plane belonging to the Russian army briefly entered Finnish airspace on April 8.

Experts have warned that Finland and Sweden would likely be subjected to Russian acts of interference as they consider whether to join Nato as a deterrent against aggression from their eastern neighbour.

[Davexl]

China’s deal with the Solomons is an act of colonisation

https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/china-s-deal-with-the-solomons-is-an-act-of-colonisation-20220503-p5ai0v.html

Excerpt:

(https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/china-s-deal-with-the-solomons-is-an-act-of-colonisation-20220503-p5ai0v.html)It gets worse. Much of Australia’s connectivity with the world passes through undersea telecommunications cables. Some of the most important ones, such as the Australia-Japan cable, Hawiaki Nui cable to Hawaii, and the Japan-Guam-Australia South cable pass through the waters of the Solomon Islands. Any Chinese base in the Solomon Island makes it more likely the Chinese will seek to interfere with these cables. The Chinese, observing how the Ukrainians have leveraged their terrestrial communications to influence global opinion, are certain to target these important submarine cables in the future.


(https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/china-s-deal-with-the-solomons-is-an-act-of-colonisation-20220503-p5ai0v.html)

[THEONE]

Australia has donated billions to the Solomons with no return. Very cheeky now slagging them off.
Australia should either stop funding or make sure lots of conditions attached. Eg Control of airport and ports ,millitary prescence, loans etc.
New Zealand should just do the same. With same scenario for all other Pacific islands.

[Davexl]

Includes some interesting historical backdrops...

Japan-Russia ructions roiling Pacific waters

https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/japan-russia-ructions-roiling-pacific-waters/

Excerpt:

In 1918, Tokyo dispatched troops to fight alongside white forces during the Russian Civil War. In 1931, it used Korea as a balcony to advance into Manchuria, and subsequently China. However, its move into Mongolia was halted at the bloody battle of Khalkin Gol/Nomhohan in 1939 by Soviet troops.

Japan’s defeat in the four-month campaign, with the loss of about 18,000 troops, had seismic geopolitical results. A Soviet-Japanese Neutrality pact was signed in 1941, and a militaristic Tokyo, instead of confronting Soviet communism, chose a “southern strategy” of confronting European and US colonial powers in Southeast Asia.

That led Japan into battle against the Western Allies with Nazi Germany.

[Davexl]

1h ago08.38
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-bloody-battles-inside-mariupol-steelworks-ukraine-claims-it-has-retaken-areas-near-kherson-live?page=with:block-62737ce58f08a298acd03bac#block-62737ce58f08a298acd03bac)
Gen Richard Dannatt, the former Chief of the General Staff of the British army in the early 2000s has been interviewed about Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) on Sky News in the UK this morning. He told viewers that he thought the renewed reports of fighting at the Azovstal plant in Mariupol represented Russia attempting to secure some sort of victory announcement for the 9 May commemoration of the end of the second world war. He said:

It would appear they’ve now resumed the direct attack in order to try and snuff out the remaining parts of the resistance, so that they can claim on Monday that they have captured Mariupol, and therefore they have completed their land corridor from Crimea through the Donbas into Russia proper.


This is a tragedy that’s unfolding in front of our eyes. Some of the civilians may get out over a two or three day ceasefire, which is being talked about, but for the soldiers in there, I’m afraid the prospect is very grim.



He suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin was in a position to declare a victory because “he has control over the state media. He can say what he likes. And tragically a large proportion of the Russian people will believe what he says.”

Dannatt said that “the evidence is mounting” that Russia’s campaign amounts to an attempt at genocide, describing the attack on the theatre in Mariupol as “really quite despicable.”

He felt that the prospects for the endgame in Ukraine were quite bleak for the Ukrainians, saying:

The sad reality is that at some point, hopefully in the not too distant future, there will be some form of general ceasefire and the war will stop where it is.

[The Russians] won’t leave of their own free accord. And no one is going to throw them out. Nato and the west is not going to mount an Iraq-style operation to throw out the Russians from Ukraine in the same way that Saddam Hussein was thrown out of Kuwait. That just isn’t going to happen.

So there may have to be the realisation of an awful new status quo, where 10-to-15% of Ukraine is occupied by Russians, and there’s nothing that can be done about it.

[Davexl]

37m ago10.14

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-bloody-battles-inside-mariupol-steelworks-ukraine-claims-it-has-retaken-areas-near-kherson-live?page=with:block-6273952f8f08a298acd03c53#block-6273952f8f08a298acd03c53)https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/09/Philip_Oltermann,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&

Philip Oltermann

Germany is preparing to supply Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) with seven Panzerhaubitze 2000 armoured howitzers, according to newspaper Die Welt, granting explicit wishes by Kyiv for material support in the shape of the self-propelled weapons systems that can hit targets at a distance of 40 kilometres.

The delivery of the armoured howitzers, which newspaper Bild reported to be currently in repair and not be ready for delivery until the end of June, is believed to be a political decision that goes against the advice of Germany’s military, which has said it requires the armed vehicles for its own needs.

Only 40 out of 119 Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers within the Bundeswehr’s arsenal are currently ready for use, said Die Welt.

[Waltzing]

probably the Dutch ones get sent first.

The anti aircraft tanks are useless no much ammo..

Each side is going to run out of ammo since the country side is huge...

[Davexl]

15m ago11.01 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-bloody-battles-inside-mariupol-steelworks-ukraine-claims-it-has-retaken-areas-near-kherson-live?page=with:block-62739d288f08a5c31f5b29a3#block-62739d288f08a5c31f5b29a3)

Today so far …



Another 344 people have been rescued from the besieged city of Mariupol in a second evacuation operation, Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirmed in his latest national address (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/pamyatati-peremogu-nad-nacizmom-oznachaye-realno-ne-dopuskat-74785). However, the Ukrainian president said civilians will need to be dug from bunkers by hand under the Azovstal steelworks as heavy equipment cannot be used.
Russia has said it will implement a ceasefire for three days from Thursday to allow more civilian evacuations from the Azovstal plant in the besieged city of Mariupol. However, Ukraine has claimed Russia resumed its offensive on Mariupol in order to take control of the plant, saying heavy fighting continues.
Video has emerged which appears to show the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol being bombed (https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/may/05/video-appears-to-show-attack-on-ukraines-azovstal-steelworks-video), although when the footage was filmed is unclear.
Russia said its artillery struck multiple Ukrainian positions and strongholds overnight, killing 600 fighters. The defence ministry also said its missiles destroyed aviation equipment at the Kanatovo airfield in Ukraine’s central Kirovohrad region, and a large ammunition depot in the southern city of Mykolayiv.
Ukraine’s military says it has regained control over several settlements surrounding Mykolayiv and Kherson in the country’s south.
The Russian Belgorod villages of Zhuravlevka and Nekhoteevka have been shelled by Ukraine with no casualties resulting, according to the region’s governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.
The United States has provided intelligence that has helped Ukrainian forces kill many of the Russian generals who have died in the Ukraine war, the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/politics/russia-generals-killed-ukraine.html)reported, citing senior US officials. Washington has reportedly provided to Ukraine details on Russia’s expected troop movements and the location and other details about Russia’s mobile military headquarters.
Reports claim almost 200,000 children from the self-proclaimed breakaway regions of Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk – have so far arrived in Russia since the latest conflict began on 24 February. Ukrainian authorities have accused Russia of carrying out forced deportations from the east of the country.
Russia said its forces practiced simulated nuclear-capable missile strikes yesterday in the western enclave of Kaliningrad
Germany is preparing to supply Ukraine with seven Panzerhaubitze 2000 armoured howitzers granting explicit wishes by Kyiv for material support in the shape of the self-propelled weapons systems that can hit targets at a distance of 40 kilometres.
The UK is providing £45m in funding to help the most vulnerable in Ukraine and at its borders, the government has said. The money will go to UN agencies and charities delivering aid and supporting survivors of sexual violence.

[Panda-NZ-]

37m ago10.14

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-bloody-battles-inside-mariupol-steelworks-ukraine-claims-it-has-retaken-areas-near-kherson-live?page=with:block-6273952f8f08a298acd03c53#block-6273952f8f08a298acd03c53)https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/09/Philip_Oltermann,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&

Philip Oltermann

Germany is preparing to supply Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) with seven Panzerhaubitze 2000 armoured howitzers, according to newspaper Die Welt, .


Which apparently couldn't have been done earlier because "the paperwork" and it would reduce Germany's contribution to NATO.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/14/german-chancellor-stalling-heavy-weaponry-ukraine-coalition-olaf-scholz-russia-offensive

Having a russian puppet state on your doorstep would have been a serious defence risk I would have thought.

[Bjauck]

I didn't think that Putin did apologies...but he apologised to Israel for Lavrov's claim that Hitler was part Jewish. Obviously Lavrov wanted to imply the Jews somehow are the biggest persecuters of themselves (!) Thereby cementing the Russian claim they were "saving" Ukraine from Nazis and that the fact the current Leader of Ukraine is Jewish does not mean he is not a Nazi sympathiser terrorising the people in Ukraine.

The Russians cannot escape from the fact that they are infringing on the sovereignty of Ukraine and are trying/ have tried to erase the state of Ukraine and eliminate the Ukrainian identity.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-61339749

[Waltzing]

"I didn't think that Putin did apologies."

yes interesting..

well observed. What technologies does the little state have that Putin doesnt want handed over to the UKE's.

Also still talking to the french. Big cultural links between the Arts communities in St Petersburg and Paris.

Some of St Petersburg artistic Community took the boat to Finland in flight.

It a case of get out if you can as fast as you can. Many many thousands of Technology savy young have already fled apparently and the science community.

[Davexl]

I have seen no comment in the press regarding NZ's attitude now to the Russian citizens that come regularly on a fly in/fly out basis to crew some off-shore fishing vessels that operate out of NZ. Remember, some inbound arrivals brought Covid last year necessitating stays in MIQ facilities and were the subject of publicity at the time, pre the Ukraine Special Military Operation being initiated. Is this practice now banned/precluded by sanctions or have we prioritised continued fishing activity?
It appears NZ may have prioritised continued fishing activity via Sealord.
After an extensive search, I could only find these 2 articles - hope it helps...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128013127/nelson-shipping-not-impacted-by-russia-sanctions

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/127917780/fishing-company-sealord-monitors-impacts-of-russian-invasion

[Davexl]

21m ago22.34 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-bloody-battles-inside-mariupol-steelworks-ukraine-claims-it-has-retaken-areas-near-kherson-live?page=with:block-627442b28f08a5c31f5b31d0#block-627442b28f08a5c31f5b31d0)

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2019/06/07/Andrew_Roth,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&
Andrew Roth

As Victory Day, 9 May, approaches in Russia, Vladimir Putin (https://www.theguardian.com/world/vladimir-putin) has yet to win any prize in two months of war in Ukraine that can be shown off to the Russian people.

But one could be close: the industrial port city of Mariupol, on the shores of the Azov Sea. Severely damaged in the Russian onslaught, it may now serve as a key prop in the festivities of the coming weeks. Kremlin officials and propagandists have flocked to the town before the holiday, as local cleaning crews are clearing rubble and patriotic statues to Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) are being erected.

Fighting is reportedly still raging in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol’s industrial zone, which Putin had previously ordered his military chief to block up so that “not even a fly can get through.” Despite his orders for a siege, Ukrainian soldiers say Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia) is making a final push to enter the steelworks and subdue the city’s final defenders just days before Victory Day.

Ukrainian intelligence has claimed that Russia is planning to hold part of its key Victory Day parade in the city. “Mariupol, according to [Russia’s] plans, should become the centre of ‘celebrations’,” Ukraine’s defence intelligence agency said in a statement. “For this purpose, the city is urgently cleaning the central streets from rubble, bodies of dead and unexploded Russian ammunition.

“A large-scale propaganda campaign continues, during which Russians will be shown stories about the ‘joy’ of local residents from meeting with the invaders,” the intelligence agency continued, noting a recent visit by the Russian state television host Vladimir Solovyov to the city alongside officials. He was pictured wearing local army camouflage and later displayed part of a British anti-tank missile launcher that he had brought back to Moscow with him.

Mariupol is a city that few Russians would have imagined as a prize before the war, home to a leading iron and steelworks that played an important role in the city’s economy but also fuelled local pollution. Nonetheless, it was a vibrant port with an active civil society that had withstood the Russian-backed advance in 2014, when Russian artillery came close enough to Mariupol to bombard the city’s outer districts, before being driven back.

The Kremlin could be keen to take the city as a strategic point in its goals to build a “land bridge” to Crimea, to gain access to another deep-water port that it used to transport coal, steel and grain, and as a symbolic victory, the largest city yet taken by Russia, which has failed to conquer Kharkiv or Kyiv.

And in an extraordinary visit this week, the presidential aide Sergey Kiriyenko, widely seen as Putin’s curator for Russian domestic politics, went to the city this week as part of what are seen as preparations for Russia to absorb the area as part of what has clearly been a war of conquest.

The visit chimed with reports that parts of east and southern Ukraine have entered the portfolio of the Kremlin’s domestic politics tsar, and served as confirmation, in the words of a local Russian-affiliated official, for “those who want to see proof that Russia has returned here”.

But that victory, if it arrives, will have come at a terrible cost. More than 90% of the city has been damaged, its mayor has said, and even Russian television has shown the extent of the devastation, though blaming it on Ukraine rather than its own artillery’s bombardment.

[Davexl]

Getting personal with Putin...

53m ago22.04https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/12/26/Jennifer_Rankin,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&

Jennifer Rankin

The European Union plans to impose sanctions on Alina Kabaeva, long rumoured to be Vladimir Putin’s girlfriend (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/16/putin-girlfriend-alina-kabayeva-media-group), and Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox church.

Two sources said the EU has proposed sanctions on Kabaeva, a former Olympic gymnast whose appearance on a draft sanctions list was first reported by Bloomberg. Kirill, a long-serving Kremlin ally who has given his blessing to the war in Ukraine (https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine), appears on a draft document seen by the Guardian.

Kabaeva and Kirill are two of dozens of people who would face an EU travel ban and asset freeze under new listings being discussed by member states, joining more than 1,000 powerful Russians already on the sanctions list. The new names still have to be approved by the EU’s 27 member states.

According to Bloomberg the document describes Kabaeva as “closely associated with President Vladimir Putin”. Kabayeva won gold in the 2004 Olympics for rhythmic gymnastics and was also a flag-bearer at the Winter Olympics in Sochi in 2014. She was an MP for six years representing Putin’s United Russia party and went on to run a major pro-Kremlin media group, despite an apparent lack of experience in media management.

In 2008 a Moscow newspaper alleged that Putin had secretly divorced his wife Lyudmila and was planning to wed the gymnast. The Kremlin vehemently denied the story and the newspaper closed soon after. The Putins announced their separation in 2013, after 30 years of marriage. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that the US administration had held off sanctioning Kabaeva because of concerns Putin would view it as a personal attack. The White House strongly denied the report, insisting no one was safe from sanctions. The US and EU have already sanctioned Putin’s adult children, Maria Vorontsova and Katerina Tikhonova.


1h ago21.38

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-bloody-battles-inside-mariupol-steelworks-ukraine-claims-it-has-retaken-areas-near-kherson-live?page=with:block-6274359e8f08bc8c65c75bb8#block-6274359e8f08bc8c65c75bb8)UK imposes sanctions on Roman Abramovich-linked steel firm Evraz

Jasper Jolly (https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jasper-jolly) and Rob Davies (https://www.theguardian.com/profile/rob-davies) report:

The UK government has placed sanctions on Evraz, the multinational steelmaker part-owned by the billionaire Roman Abramovich (https://www.theguardian.com/world/roman-abramovich) that was formerly counted among Britain’s biggest companies.

The Foreign Office said on Thursday that Evraz “operates in sectors of strategic significance to the government of Russia” and the action would “further chip away at Putin’s financial reserves and siege economy, and support Ukraine’s continued resistance”.
Evraz’s registered office is in London’s Mayfair district, but it has vast mining and steelmaking operations in Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/russia), with more than 70,000 employees.

The UK and allies including the US and EU have used sanctions on Russian companies and businessmen (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/29/russia-compares-sanctions-to-war-as-uk-says-putin-preparing-to-send-1000-mercenaries-to-ukraine) as one of the main tools to respond to the invasion of Ukraine.

The Evraz (https://www.theguardian.com/business/evraz) measure is thought to be the first time a former FTSE 100 member has been subject to sanctions. It completes the fall from grace of a company that was valued at more than £5bn as recently as January.

Its membership of the index meant that shares in the company were held by a wide variety of investors managing money for pensions, including BlackRock, Schroders Investment Management, Vanguard and Legal & General.

Evraz shares were suspended from trading on the London Stock Exchange in March after the UK government highlighted its alleged strategic significance to Russia (https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2022/mar/10/uk-sanctions-confusion-left-evraz-investors-not-knowing-where-to-stand) when imposing sanctions on Abramovich, who owns a 29% stake in the company. Its board also resigned after the sanctions against Abramovich (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/11/evraz-board-resigns-after-sanctions-imposed-on-roman-abramovich).

[Davexl]

2h ago21.12

(https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/05/russia-ukraine-war-bloody-battles-inside-mariupol-steelworks-ukraine-claims-it-has-retaken-areas-near-kherson-live?page=with:block-62742cff8f08bc8c65c75b7e#block-62742cff8f08bc8c65c75b7e)Some more anecdotal details emerging from what the United Nations secretary-general António Guterres just described as the “hellscape” that is Mariupol, specifically the situation at the Azovstal steel plant, where Ukrainian soldiers have been taking a last stand in the city and civilians have been hiding, in the face of Russian bombardment, and are now gradually being evacuated, apparently with great difficulty.

Iuliia Mendel, a journalist and former press secretary to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has tweeted an account from a man she describes as a Crimean Tartar doctor and a Muslim, saying of conditions in the steel plant: “I don’t remember what day of the war it is. People are dying, some from bullets, some from hunger, the wounded from lack of medicine, from terrible conditions.”

According to an interpretation of his account, he goes on to say: “We don’t have time, I don’t know if tomorrow will come. I’m a Muslim, a Crimean Tatar, a descendant of the Gireys. I studied medicine before the occupation. Now I provide medical care to the wounded at Azovstal. I had never seen death before the war. Worked in an ambulance.

“It hurts to watch people die from purulent wounds, the simple lack of antibiotics. We are constantly bombed from the air, sea &land. Please comply with the procedure of withdrawal of all people, including military, from the territory of Azovstal. Stop this nightmare.”

The tweet thread begins with an appeal to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan (https://www.theguardian.com/world/recep-tayyip-erdogan). Tartar is an umbrella term describing various Turkic ethnic groups in the region, including Crimea.

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1522303287197904904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1522303287197904904%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld% 2Flive%2F2022%2Fmay%2F05%2Frussia-ukraine-war-bloody-battles-inside-mariupol-steelworks-ukraine-claims-it-has-retaken-areas-near-kherson-live