Black Monday

[Joshuatree]

And i ,by checking how fast the level on my bottle of Gin is dropping......................

[percy]

And i ,by checking how fast the level on my bottle of Gin is dropping......................

Classic...lol.

[janner]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ

[percy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ

Loved it....................lol.

[janner]

And i ,by checking how fast the level on my bottle of Gin is dropping......................


One saving grace Vodka only NZ$6.50 - NZ8.00 a litre here..

[Snow Leopard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ

"Bernie, I said, they'll never make their money back" [3'05"]

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Lewylewylewy]

I only view charts as a reflection of the companies ability to perform in specific conditions, not as a way of predicting the future.

The question is, why are prices falling and will that cause persist or give rise to more reason to fall?

It's also worth remembering that we're in the middle of dividend payments which will amplify the spook factor. This is not me saying that the drop is benign. because I don't know and would love some enlightenment.

[Ace]

I only view charts as a reflection of the companies ability to perform in specific conditions, not as a way of predicting the future.

The question is, why are prices falling and will that cause persist or give rise to more reason to fall?

It's also worth remembering that we're in the middle of dividend payments which will amplify the spook factor. This is not me saying that the drop is benign. because I don't know and would love some enlightenment.

Brexit is causing a lot of global economic uncertainty. It's not just NZ taking a hit, look at other indices as well. Poor market sentiment all around. There are a whole lot of other factors contributing to this as well.

[LAC]

Man its not looking good for me on the NZX. All the gloom heading our way

[percy]

This thread has been going since 23-8-2015 and proves that the saying "after all said and done,there is more said than done"is correct.

[LAC]

This thread has been going since 23-8-2015 and proves that the saying "after all said and done,there is more said than done"is correct.

:) This is a great thread, especially when going back too see all the gloomy comments. I think as long as I buy good shares I will be "safe". They may not be the best performing in the short term but long term they will outperform the gloom....I hope;)

[Ace]

:) This is a great thread, especially when going back too see all the gloomy comments. I think as long as I buy good shares I will be "safe". They may not be the best performing in the short term but long term they will outperform the gloom....I hope;)

Exactly, I think the goal isn't to predict where the market is headed or if we think there is going to be a crash. As long as we find and invest in value and capitalize on the inefficiencies in the market we should be fine - and if we aren't I guess the rest of the world will be following right behind us hahaha.

[Lewylewylewy]

If you have $100m, you are rich, but if everyone has $100m, you are poor.

If shares drop in value and you're playing the long game you haven't lost anything if the company can survive a downturn and respond to changing markets.

However, it's useful to be able to predict drops because they present opportunities for long term investors or problems for short term investors.

[axe]

21/8/15 - nzx 50 5751.19
15/06/16 - nzx 50 6869.55

[bull....]

dow bounced of the bottom of the 3mth channel 17500 odd, beautiful price action needs go above 17750 I reckon to track back to the top at 18000 around

[skid]

If you have $100m, you are rich, but if everyone has $100m, you are poor.

If shares drop in value and you're playing the long game you haven't lost anything if the company can survive a downturn and respond to changing markets.

However, it's useful to be able to predict drops because they present opportunities for long term investors or problems for short term investors.

Exactly--In other words ''you cant have your cake and eat it too'' Assuming you get shares in a good company ,being able to see when the odds are in favor of a drop or gain will determine how many of those shares you get ,for X price....Joe Shmoe, who waited, will end up with more shares
to enjoy when the times are good.
''If you have 100m and most others lose some of theirs --you are really rich''

[drcjp]

If you have $100m, you are rich, but if everyone has $100m, you are poor.

If you have $100M and lose it, then you are Mike Tyson! :-)

But seriously, I think its the potential Brexit Trump combination thats got some going. Soros seems to think there's going to be carnage.

[winner69]

dow bounced of the bottom of the 3mth channel 17500 odd, beautiful price action needs go above 17750 I reckon to track back to the top at 18000 around

The sad and horrific killing of Jo Cox could swing the vote to remain ....and allay the fears of a Brexit

Might be risk on times again - the pound has already rebounded

Your 18000 seems certain i reckon.

[ratkin]

The sad and horrific killing of Jo Cox could swing the vote to remain ....and allay the fears of a Brexit

Might be risk on times again - the pound has already rebounded

Your 18000 seems certain i reckon.

Sad but true. Brexit had all the momentum. A mental health patient is going to change the course of history. Not for the first time

[sb9]

Sad but true. Brexit had all the momentum. A mental health patient is going to change the course of history. Not for the first time

Yeah, we live in interesting times don't we?

[Bjauck]

Sad but true. Brexit had all the momentum. A mental health patient is going to change the course of history. Not for the first time Perhaps. Nigel Farage the UK Independence Party leader has claimed he would have been assassinated without his expensive possee of bodyguards. Jo Cox's assassin is supposed to have uttered "Britain First". Sounds like Trump's "America First". Politics of exclusion breeding violence in the mentally unbalanced?

[bull....]

The sad and horrific killing of Jo Cox could swing the vote to remain ....and allay the fears of a Brexit

Might be risk on times again - the pound has already rebounded

Your 18000 seems certain i reckon.

could be an all nighter next week for me june 23 big swings for sure. down or up lol

by the way telecoms lead the charge in the us reversal last night they are considered a good place to park money

[Beagle]

The sad and horrific killing of Jo Cox could swing the vote to remain ....and allay the fears of a Brexit

Might be risk on times again - the pound has already rebounded

Your 18000 seems certain i reckon.

I like your optimism mate. Whatever happy pills you're on I need some of them so please. e.mail me your prescription :)

[dobby41]

Politics of exclusion breeding violence in the mentally unbalanced?

The mentally unbalanced don't need a lot of excuse!

[bull....]

The sad and horrific killing of Jo Cox could swing the vote to remain ....and allay the fears of a Brexit

Might be risk on times again - the pound has already rebounded

Your 18000 seems certain i reckon.

Europe futures are showing a big bounce for tonight, could be the jo cox effect

[Hoop]

I like your optimism mate. Whatever happy pills you're on I need some of them so please. e.mail me your prescription :)

Roger..A happy pill is here :D (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!/page93)

[winner69]

Roger..A happy pill is here :D (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!/page93)

That was a good call eh hoop

Mr P got it right

[Lewylewylewy]

Never underestimate the hatred the British people have for the politicians that are giving the country away to people that hate British people and cause crime.

As a British person who has experienced racism, abuse and crime against me in England, for being white, I can appreciate why voters would be willing to vote to exit the EU to stem the flow, at the cost of ruining the economy.

I think there's a good chance they could vote to exit, but if I was betting on it (and I am), I would say that England won't leave the EU.

[Lewylewylewy]

I imagine if brexit happens, the GBP will drop. Any NZ exports to the UK will drop. So... does anyone know of shares on the NZX that export to the UK?

[percy]

I imagine if brexit happens, the GBP will drop. Any NZ exports to the UK will drop. So... does anyone know of shares on the NZX that export to the UK?

All the wine companies,meat,fish,butter,Trilogy products and most probably honey,apples and kiwifruit..

[drcjp]

All the wine companies,meat,fish,butter,Trilogy products and most probably honey,apples and kiwifruit..

I would expect Scales not so much maybe, as they have substantial Chinese ownership now and have clearly indicated Asia to be their focus. Markets are funny things though.

[777]

Why? I would think that the export would in NZ$ and the Brits would then have to use more £ to pay the same amount.

[BlackPeter]

Why? I would think that the export would in NZ$ and the Brits would then have to use more £ to pay the same amount.

Yes, and given that they would have less pounds (and not more) and each pound would be worth less than now they would simply buy less NZ stuff ...

[BlackPeter]

All the wine companies,meat,fish,butter,Trilogy products and most probably honey,apples and kiwifruit..

Correct - however: don't forget AIR (less British tourists and Heathrow might loose its role as hub to Europe, which would be great from a travellers perspective, but bad for AIR), THL (less British tourists), OIC (less money for the Brits to maintain their infrastructure) and many others I am sure ...

[777]

Yes, and given that they would have less pounds (and not more) and each pound would be worth less than now they would simply buy less NZ stuff ...

OK that would be for future negotiated exports but existing agreements would stand.

[Southern_Belle]

All the wine companies,meat,fish,butter,Trilogy products and most probably honey,apples and kiwifruit.. and possibly Xero

[Baa_Baa]

All the wine companies,meat,fish,butter,Trilogy products and most probably honey,apples and kiwifruit..

and the NZ software companies.

[bull....]

black Monday - how appropriate if we get brexit

I believe the results are known after Fridays nz close?

[workingdad]

black Monday - how appropriate if we get brexit

I believe the results are known after Fridays nz close?

Final results just after market close but they saying 50% and 80% counts coming in during the day

Some risk averse selling prior on the cards I think

[couta1]

black Monday - how appropriate if we get brexit

I believe the results are known after Fridays nz close? Otherwise it will be Bright Monday,then a new thread could be started, but then again that would be all too much for the doom and gloom merchants who live under continuous clouds.

[bull....]

Final results just after market close but they saying 50% and 80% counts coming in during the day

Some risk averse selling prior on the cards I think

add +13hrs to get nz time

heres a good article about it 6pm nzt looks like a good indicator

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/when-are-the-eu-referendum-results-what-time-will-we-know-the-wi/

[workingdad]

add +13hrs to get nz time

heres a good article about it 6pm nzt looks like a good indicator

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/when-are-the-eu-referendum-results-what-time-will-we-know-the-wi/

Yep. I was referring to nz time. Results start coming in at 2am UK time but final not until after our market closes which makes it interesting.

[winner69]

add +13hrs to get nz time

heres a good article about it 6pm nzt looks like a good indicator

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/when-are-the-eu-referendum-results-what-time-will-we-know-the-wi/

5 am London is 6pm Wellingon .??? I'd double check

NZ market might still e open if they know the result 5am London

Not that time keeping is one of my strong points

[Nasi Goreng]

Well I closed one of my positions late yesterday afternoon. It's a stock I hadn't planned to sell but when I weigh all this up, I can't think of a similar one off event (70% vs 30% according to the bookies) that would have a big impact to markets.

So I've gone for safety in cash and I will re-assess next week. Insurance.

[BlackPeter]

add +13hrs to get nz time

heres a good article about it 6pm nzt looks like a good indicator

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/when-are-the-eu-referendum-results-what-time-will-we-know-the-wi/

make this +11 hours ... after all it is summer (and daylight savings time) in the maybe European or maybe non-European UK ...

[workingdad]

Yeah I had it at 11 hours too but here's the link I was using for some results during the day.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-will-we-know-the-result-of-the-brexit-vote-2016-06-21

[stoploss]

My trusty iphone has currently Wellington 10.17: London 11.17 11 hours Behind .

[bull....]

haha just as well some people are onto it, I added 1 instead of minus 1

[Bjauck]

make this +11 hours ... after all it is summer (and daylight savings time) in the maybe European or maybe non-European UK ... It has always been known as BST (British Summer Time.)

[Hoop]

Britain doesn't cease to exist if it leaves the EU neither will all it's trade to NZ ..I can remember when it was bad for NZ when Britain associated itself with EU ..but the question now is.. how important is the UK to NZ these days ......NZ Trade and Enterprise statistics website (https://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/invest/statistics/)

[BlackPeter]

Britain doesn't cease to exist if it leaves the EU neither will all it's trade to NZ ..I can remember when it was bad for NZ when Britain associated itself with EU ..but the question now is.. how important is the UK to NZ these days ......NZ Trade and Enterprise statistics website (https://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/invest/statistics/)

Interesting ..... looks like NZ managed to cut the ties to its "homeland" better than I expected.

Pretty sure that the boat of the world economy won't flip just because the Britons are rocking it ... but I am sure that we will see (and feel) some economical waves if they leave the EU - no matter how important (or unimportant) they may be to NZ;

[sb9]

Britain doesn't cease to exist if it leaves the EU neither will all it's trade to NZ ..I can remember when it was bad for NZ when Britain associated itself with EU ..but the question now is.. how important is the UK to NZ these days ......NZ Trade and Enterprise statistics website (https://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/invest/statistics/)

In any case, I think the BREXIT referendum is blown out of proportion in my opinion. As the referendum is not binding and if they choose to leave EU the British Parliament have to battle this out further which is going to hurt Mr Cameron big time.

[Leftfield]

In any case, I think the BREXIT referendum is blown out of proportion in my opinion. As the referendum is not binding and if they choose to leave EU the British Parliament have to battle this out further which is going to hurt Mr Cameron big time.

Interesting that the Europe and UK markets ended the day on the up..... looks like the markets think the result is going to be favourable. Next week on the NZX could be v interesting.

[Lewylewylewy]

There's no way the people in power will allow the UK out... there's to much money involved in the short term. I'm hoping they do vote out though, because I wanna see the British people vote against the powers who have misrepresented them for so many years.

It's funny how many British people left England to go to NZ for exactly the reason of the UK having to many foreigners in.

The British media is an interesting read at the moment, except the sun, they're fairly united against brexit. Also, the tone is calmer, which says a lot.

[Bjauck]

Britain doesn't cease to exist if it leaves the EU neither will all it's trade to NZ ..I can remember when it was bad for NZ when Britain associated itself with EU ..but the question now is.. how important is the UK to NZ these days ......NZ Trade and Enterprise statistics website (https://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/invest/statistics/)

Trade with the UK (currently) is a shadow of what it used to be, now only being NZ's fifth largest export market. However it has the second largest stock of foreign investment in NZ (after Australia).
https://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/invest/statistics/

[Bjauck]

There's no way the people in power will allow the UK out... there's to much money involved in the short term. I'm hoping they do vote out though, because I wanna see the British people vote against the powers who have misrepresented them for so many years.

It's funny how many British people left England to go to NZ for exactly the reason of the UK having to many foreigners in.

The British media is an interesting read at the moment, except the sun, they're fairly united against brexit. Also, the tone is calmer, which says a lot. How have "the powers" misrepresented the British people?
Since Britain joined the Common Market (EU) in 1973, it has enjoyed greater economic growth and greater increase in incomes compared with the other "big" countries (France, Germany, Italy)
I think the British media are mostly pro-Brexit.The BBC and The Independent remaining neutral.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/which-newspapers-support-brexit_uk_5768fad2e4b0a4f99adc6525
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/apr/04/national-newspapers-continue-to-act-as-brexit-propagandists

[arc]

When the dust settles, it wont matter which side won, either outcome will be used to defend the sentence "Your pay is being cut because..."

[Bjauck]

When the dust settles, it wont matter which side won, either outcome will be used to defend the sentence "Your pay is being cut because..." Quite likely although if there is a Brexit, it may mean that for more people "you have been made redundant because we are moving our offices to Frankfurt and Paris".

[bull....]

looks like the market is saying remain has one, big gains overnight in stocks and pound - my god hope there right or it gonna be real nasty

[Bjauck]

looks like the market is saying remain has one, big gains overnight in stocks and pound - my god hope there right or it gonna be real nasty I don't think much risk of a Brexit is priced into the markets, so I don't think it will be pretty if Brexit wins. There is heavy rain in the South of England which pundits reckon favours Brexit, Apparently Remain supporters are not as enthusiastic as Brexiteers, so will be less likely to risk getting wet on the way to the polling booth!

[fungus pudding]

I don't think much risk of a Brexit is priced into the markets, so I don't think it will be pretty if Brexit wins. There is heavy rain in the South of England which pundits reckon favours Brexit, Apparently Remain supporters are not as enthusiastic as Brexiteers, so will be less likely to risk getting wet on the way to the polling booth!

I do wonder about such predictions. For years it was generally thought bad weather favoured National over Labour in NZ until someone had the bright idea of analyzing the returns and weather over a few elections. Turned out to be bollocks. Remain supporters not as enthusiastic as exit supporters? How would anyone know that, apart from a small sampling?
My prediction - no change, they will remain regardless of weather. I go along with the commentators who say they don't really know the effect of exiting yet. T'will be interesting.

[sb9]

looks like the market is saying remain has one, big gains overnight in stocks and pound - my god hope there right or it gonna be real nasty

Yeah all markets up pretty strong last night more so the US and if the vote goes to exit there'll be some real carnage out there....

[bull....]

Yeah all markets up pretty strong last night more so the US and if the vote goes to exit there'll be some real carnage out there....

after market futures are going ballistic to the upside already ist result in

[BlackCross]

Latest yougov poll: 52% Remain 48% Exit and Farage (UKIP Brexiteer) says Remain will edge it. FTSE futures up over 1.5%

[bull....]

Latest yougov poll: 52% Remain 48% Exit and Farage (UKIP Brexiteer) says Remain will edge it. FTSE futures up over 1.5%


ftse nearly 2% now what about nzd going mad lol back to 80c soon I reckon rbnz lost the game on this

[sb9]

"Ukip leader Nigel Farage sensationally concedes defeat as Brexit voting closes"

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11662574

[bull....]

"Ukip leader Nigel Farage sensationally concedes defeat as Brexit voting closes"

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11662574

apparently he has un-conceded now

[blackcap]

apparently he has un-conceded now

If you guys want the best indicator of what is happening live right now... go to betfair.com and find the market that has the Brexit.

Current odds:
Remain 1.13
Leave 8.80

This means the pundits are confident the remain have it but not certain enough to call it. For what its worth, any new updates will be reflected here faster than you will hear it anywhere else.

[Xerof]

"They" started buying back their short positions (in everything from equities to FX) days ago, and really put the hammer down as soon as the polls closed. I think 'they' are probably getting long now, so expect to see a sell-off when the final result comes out (Remain wins)

A classic buy the rumour, sell the fact scenario, which since time immemorial, leaves Average Joe wondering WTF?

[Bjauck]

"They" started buying back their short positions (in everything from equities to FX) days ago, and really put the hammer down as soon as the polls closed. I think 'they' are probably getting long now, so expect to see a sell-off when the final result comes out (Remain wins)

A classic buy the rumour, sell the fact scenario, which since time immemorial, leaves Average Joe wondering WTF? I wonder if there are sons of Soros out there enjoying the Brexit/bremain swings.

[bull....]

brexit dude officially live just a minute ago say he not conceding futures backing off substantially now pound has almost lost all gains - first results due in next hr so fireworks will begin then

[blackcap]

brexit dude officially live just a minute ago say he not conceding futures backing off substantially now pound has almost lost all gains - first results due in next hr so fireworks will begin then

Odds now 1.22, 5.50 so huge swing to leave in last hour.

[Bjauck]

Latest poll had 75% of under 25's supporting Remain but only 39% of over 65's.

[bull....]

Odds now 1.22, 5.50 so huge swing to leave in last hour.

futures are swinging big time now ftse negative from almost 2% up this is going to be violent I reckon

[blackcap]

Odds now on remain 1.38
leave 3.55

Interesting whatever happens

[Nasi Goreng]

"They" started buying back their short positions (in everything from equities to FX) days ago, and really put the hammer down as soon as the polls closed. I think 'they' are probably getting long now, so expect to see a sell-off when the final result comes out (Remain wins)

A classic buy the rumour, sell the fact scenario, which since time immemorial, leaves Average Joe wondering WTF?

I believe all of this to be true. There is no such thing as a dead cert in the markets and those who buy the result may well get caught out here.

[QOH]

Who would have thought a vote could be so exciting? Fascinating to watch, Newcastle was a shock.

[bull....]

Who would have thought a vote could be so exciting? Fascinating to watch, Newcastle was a shock.

fascinating how everything is swinging on each result wait for the big ones to come anyway last post for me things are plummeting now time to focus

[Nasi Goreng]

Look at the pound, down 3% in a few minutes... going to be a crazy day.

[BlackCross]

'United' Kingdom? I think not.. This election has emphasised the huge divisions between the rich and the poor...the Scots and the English...the old and the young.

[winner69]

Look at the pound, down 3% in a few minutes... going to be a crazy day.

Traders loving it i bet .....zillions being punted every second

[ratkin]

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

Support growing for leave, still outsiders but its not over yet

[Bjauck]

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

Support growing for leave, still outsiders but its not over yet

It is like watching a train crash.

[winner69]

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

Support growing for leave, still outsiders but its not over yet

Jeez - huge $ eh - $155 million matched

Just shows how small nz is doesn't it

[ratkin]

Jeez - huge $ eh - $155 million matched

Just shows how small nz is doesn't it

Very easy to make money on the small swings, being an exchange many of those bets are in and out in a few seconds, tends to inflate the matched figure, same money being continually recycled.

CNN has some decent coverage for those interested

[ratkin]

Exit now favourite, hang onto your hats, Leave is now 1.60 in from 2.80 in the space of Two minutes

[macduffy]

Hypothetical question.

If Britain votes to remain will the rest of Europe now take a more sympathetic line with Britain's desire for reforms - or will Britain have weakened its bargaining position?

[Hoop]

Jeez - huge $ eh - $155 million matched

Just shows how small nz is doesn't it
Jeez..the leave has just now gone favourite..

EDIT Ratkin your typing fingers more nimble than my fat fingers..:)

[sb9]

Jeez..the leave has just now gone favourite

Absolutely, notice the trading sentiment has changed across board on NZX and ASX is in red.

[Hoop]

The stockmarket has reacted..AOrd's just fell off the cliff -2.5% and counting..NZX only down 0.3% so far

[blackcap]

Absolutely, notice the trading sentiment has changed across board on NZX and ASX is in red.

wow Aussie from 1% up to 2.5% down now. Crazy stuff

[Nasi Goreng]

Well I just dumped one of my very long term investments which is purely impulse but the environment is changing by the minute.

[blackcap]

Well I just dumped one of my very long term investments which is purely impulse but the environment is changing by the minute.

At the end of the day though, I think markets are overestimating the impact that a UK exit will have. Yes will have to negotiate new free trade deals but in the bigger scheme of things the UK market is pretty unimportant to the rest of the world. Is it the threat that Europe will implode that is making markets scared?

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm definitely not running for the hills and I still have quite a lot in the market. Over the last week I've closed 2 positions. What is amazing is that when you are in a long term investment, you are totally ok with it but then when you cash up, your psychology changes almost immediately.

[Hoop]

WOW!!!! .....got 2 screens split into 2 and the numbers on the 4 panels are all red and spinning down....there's a train wreck happening right in front of me..I've never seen one of these in such graphic detail as I didn't have the technology nor the multi-visual screens operating with the previous black swan events..

[blackcap]

WOW!!!! .....got 2 screens split into 2 and the numbers on the 4 panels are all red and spinning down....there's a train wreck happening right in front of me..I've never seen one of these in such graphic detail as I didn't have the technology nor the multi-visual screens operating with the previous black swan events..

Swinging back to remain again though and remain is favourite again (although only just)

[winner69]

Massive swing back again Remain now favourite again with Lambeth result

Yippee

Remain will win now

[winner69]

Fortunes being made and lost by the traders and speculators

[Bjauck]

Fortunes being made and lost by the traders and speculators as per usual.
Each big returning borough declaring seems to bring a swing one way or the other atm. Seems to be a tale of a split country: South (remain) north England (leave) and Scotland (remain)

[Beagle]

At the end of the day though, I think markets are overestimating the impact that a UK exit will have.

Currently looking less likely but I agree with you 100%

[ratkin]

Exit favourite once again 1.80 now

[Lewylewylewy]

Hypothetical question.

If Britain votes to remain will the rest of Europe now take a more sympathetic line with Britain's desire for reforms - or will Britain have weakened its bargaining position?

Smart question. I imagine it won't change and will still be up to the strength of characters of those in influential positions.

I think it would be so funny if they vote to stay, then the PM said "we've listened to you, and we're doubling the refuge and immigration quota".

[fish]

Its only life
I cannot see whatever happens will have a material effect on my divis and I have long accepted that share prices are volatile-but we should take advantage of any over-reaction to brexit.
Wouldnt be surprised if it happens if we receive more uk immigration which will be positive for the economy

[blackcap]

Doom Paul **It's Happening**

Leave now hot favourite at 1.44....

[ratkin]

Doom Paul **It's Happening**

Referendum should never have been called, the information available to both sides was too corrupted and difficult for the man in the street to understand. **** will really hit the fan now

[Adam H]

Such a close vote! If Brexit happens i wouldn't be surprised to see the UK break up, Scotland especially is very pro EU and they were not so far from voting to leave the UK in 2014.

[Joshuatree]

The Clash - Should I Stay or Should I Go - YouTube (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0ahUKEwinr4X00L_NAhVX52MKHQKDAaYQtwIITjAH&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DoG IFublvDes&usg=AFQjCNFdszKE-gwm9ZxSvPFyO0otTT0fSQ&sig2=AnznsUpieHFmEHhn_ou6_A&bvm=bv.125221236,d.cGc)

[fungus pudding]

Referendum should never have been called, the information available to both sides was too corrupted and difficult for the man in the street to understand. **** will really hit the fan now

That's the danger with almost all public referendums. So many punters getting all their information at the local.

[ratkin]

Pound down 9% already :D Might have to pack bags and go home, be as cheap as chips.

New world better cut the price of their Hob nobs

[Nasi Goreng]

Get out of the market now, the sky is falling!

Disclaimer: I'm joking... sort of.

[IAK]

Looks like she's a goner!

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Whats up with those scottish people, they just dont know when to tow the line

[fungus pudding]

Whats up with those scottish people, they just dont know when to tow the line

They've got nowhere to tow it to.

[winner69]

Pound down 9% already :D Might have to pack bags and go home, be as cheap as chips.

New world better cut the price of their Hob nobs

That Cornish holiday going to be longer now?

[RGR367]

The Wall (EU) cannot contain them so 7 Kingdoms (Leave proponents or Brexit) are out to leave Westeros. Game of Thrones just playing up Guys. You're not affected so worry not :scared::D.

[ratkin]

That Cornish holiday going to be longer now?

Cornwall should go for independence too. Just seen Farage giving a speech, all he needs is the little moustache

[ratkin]

The Wall (EU) cannot contain them so 7 Kingdoms (Leave proponents or Brexit) are out to leave Westeros. Game of Thrones just playing up Guys. You're not affected so worry not :scared::D.

The wildlings north of the wall all voted brexit. Those southern softies of kings landing have not been able to peg it back. Winters coming

[winner69]

Cornwall should go for independence too. Just seen Farage giving a speech, all he needs is the little moustache

Yes, he is getting more evil looking each time i see him.

What the GBP be when he becomes Prime Minister - we do live in a funny world

[winner69]

Cornwall should go for independence too. Just seen Farage giving a speech, all he needs is the little moustache

.....and tell Charlie to take his Duchy with him.

Know somebody who has a boatyard near Falmouth. Detests the amount of mooring fee the Duchy takes.

The Tamar a natural border - separation easy eh

[ratkin]

Yes, he is getting more evil looking each time i see him.

What the GBP be when he becomes Prime Minister - we do live in a funny world

He will have to beat Boris to the job. World will end up with these two ejits

8121

[Bjauck]

Will those who voted for brexit and blamed the EU for their ills, blame themselves when things become worse?

[winner69]

Jeez nzd now .52 gbp

Was over there last september - one day it went down to .38 and the beers were costing a fortune.

25% movement quite dramatic eh

[Nasi Goreng]

I'm not so sure this is going to be a bad thing over the long term and it may take 3-4 years to really know. One thing for sure, UK manufacturers would have to be delighted with exchange rate right now. Against the JPY there has been a 13% shift in one day.

[winner69]

Farage "We've have done it without a single bullet being fired."

Nobody knows what's he done yet

[Nasi Goreng]

In saying that, I think European bank stocks will get absolutely slaughtered this evening which is going to put pressure on markets around the world for some time.

[BlackPeter]

amazing picture:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-most-likely-outcome-says-leadi/

Just click on the link and scroll down to 3:37am and you see a map of the UK. The blue areas voted for "remain" - the red areas for Brexit. For some funny reason the North (Scotland) is totally blue - and the South a mixed bag, but mainly red. Looks like London had some brains and voted for remain, but this might not be enough ...

Obviously - the picture still can change (but already 78% of the votes counted and leave is leading by a 3% so far), but if the bookies stay correct, than I am wondering why Scotland might want to stay with the English to share the fallout of the predicted disaster ... I guess the English have a great chance to be irrelevant after this poll.

If the English really exit the EU, than finance will go to Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt, the Scottish (and potentially the Welsh) will join as independent countries the EU and London as capital of whats left of the once mighty British empire will derive its main income in future from tourism - charging tourists to watch the change of the palace guard ... Given the free falling pound holidays in UK will be really cheap and they can compete on a level basis with Greece and Turkey. They have already the strikes, just need to find a better way to get a fair share of the sunshine as well ...

If this goes through - will be interesting to watch in the morning the English hangover .... they lost already now 10% of their wealth (pound in free fall) and counting ...

Still - I find it really painful to see the English shooting themselves into their feet, but I guess, they pulled the trigger themselves, and I suppose its only adults who are allowed to vote?

[winner69]

Farage "We've have done it without a single bullet being fired."

Nobody knows what's he done yet

And no doubt Jo Cox's family and friends would disagree

[Jinx]

I understand why the global market is taking a hit thus why nzx is taking huge hits but surely in terms of NZ trade this is a win? We still maintain our Free trade agreements with the EU and can develop new better trade deals with Britain?

[blackcap]

I understand why the global market is taking a hit thus why nzx is taking huge hits but surely in terms of NZ trade this is a win? We still maintain our Free trade agreements with the EU and can develop new better trade deals with Britain?

Indeed but look at it from a global portfolio point of view and then if other markets fall, we need to as well....... as a lot of these things are relative. Also our $ is strengthening relatively so in theory our bourse may have fallen but our $ worth is still the same etc.

[BlackPeter]

I understand why the global market is taking a hit thus why nzx is taking huge hits but surely in terms of NZ trade this is a win? We still maintain our Free trade agreements with the EU and can develop new better trade deals with Britain?

What do you mean with "trade deals with Britain"? I suppose Scotland is now very likely to join the EU (and they just lost a fortune by keeping the GBP until after this referendum instead of leaving the English and the pound already beforehand) ... and England is likely to become economically irrelevant .... nobody might be interested in future to take their currency as payment. Just look at it - they have nothing to back it up ...

[workingdad]

The complexities of the UK leaving the EU are far reaching for Europe. We are not immune from global markets but at least we are not going to be exposed economically as others will be. Stunned really....

[kura]

I've never had so much fun following a vote, & watching market volatility.
So much for politics being boring !

[Gizzajob I can do that]

I've never had so much fun following a vote, & watching market volatility.
So much for politics being boring !

And most of the UK havnt a clue yet!

[arc]

cue the theme song from ... Titanic
Expecting a Scottish revival of "we want UKexit", probably followed by Ireland..

[arc]

cue the theme song from... Titanic
expecting a Scottish revival of UKexit

[Ghost Monkey]

Economically irrelevant? I think that's a bit harsh. If they did go through with an exit their economy would almost certainly take a hit, but they are the world's 5th (or thereabouts) largest economy and even if they fell a few places being in the top 10 out of the 200+ countries / city states in the world is not quite irrelevant. Diminished, definitely. But irrelevant, I don't think so.
And London is built into the world's financial merry-go-round and while there will be some repercussions I'm not so sure that it will be as damaging as some scaremongers predict.
Still there's a long way to go with this story. Will certainly be entertaining watching.

[Beagle]

Be less expensive to go and see the Queen's Corgi's now ! Wonder if we'll se 60p to the $Kiwi sometime soon ?

[fungus pudding]

And most of the UK havnt a clue yet!


Most of the U.K never have had.

[ari]

Going to be an interesting night to watch across Europe....Hang Seng -4.67% Nikkei -8.2% Shanghai Composite -1.19%

[janner]

. England is likely to become economically irrelevant .... .

Irrelevant !.. Why the turmoil then ?.

[NeverQuestion]

Irrelevant !.. Why the turmoil then ?.

Could this be the start of another Black Tuesday do we think?

[kura]

My thinking is that Northern Hemisphere will take a hit tonight, causing more fallout to ASX & NZX Monday, so time to go bargain hunting Tuesday/Wednesday

Though do pity all the financial journalists, who will have to spend weekend rewriting their storys

[janner]

Could this be the start of another Black Tuesday do we think?

For whom ?

Just keep clear of the propellers as the good ship Britannia picks up speed :-))

[skid]

golds looking nice:)

[BlackPeter]

Economically irrelevant? I think that's a bit harsh. If they did go through with an exit their economy would almost certainly take a hit, but they are the world's 5th (or thereabouts) largest economy and even if they fell a few places being in the top 10 out of the 200+ countries / city states in the world is not quite irrelevant. Diminished, definitely. But irrelevant, I don't think so.
And London is built into the world's financial merry-go-round and while there will be some repercussions I'm not so sure that it will be as damaging as some scaremongers predict.
Still there's a long way to go with this story. Will certainly be entertaining watching.

OK - lets call it less relevant. But than look at it this way: Britain is (as you correctly stated) currently the nation with the 5th largest GDP (something like US$ 2800 billion p.a.). Take off only 10% for the dive of their pound vs the US$ (and this is me assuming we have already the worst behind us, which is unlikely - at current it looks worse), take off another 10% if they loose Scotland (US$245b pa) - and assume that the services industry in England will loose only 10% of their business by some banking and insurances moving to Europe (they contribute currently 75% to the total British GDP and might lose much more to Europe). Add all this together and Britain (or whats left of it) would loose 27.5% of its GDP. Could be more. This would move them down on the list to something like US$ 2000 billion p.a. - putting them between India (US$2090b) and Italy (US$1815b). Ouch.

PS: All data 2015 with the exception of the Scottish GDP (which is 2013);

[janner]

OK - lets call it less relevant. But than look at it this way: Britain is (as you correctly stated) currently the nation with the 5th largest GDP (something like US$ 2800 billion p.a.). Take off only 10% for the dive of their pound vs the US$ (and this is me assuming we have already the worst behind us, which is unlikely - at current it looks worse), take off another 10% if they loose Scotland (US$245b pa) - and assume that the services industry in England will loose only 10% of their business by some banking and insurances moving to Europe (they contribute currently 75% to the total British GDP and might lose much more to Europe). Add all this together and Britain (or whats left of it) would loose 27.5% of its GDP. Could be more. This would move them down on the list to something like US$ 2000 billion p.a. - putting them between India (US$2090b) and Italy (US$1815b). Ouch.

PS: All data 2015 with the exception of the Scottish GDP (which is 2013);

That is many of the negatives.. Are there no positives ??

[blackcap]

Interestingly One news just said the NZ market was spared and was only down 1% at close today :) phew :)

[ratkin]

Most of the U.K never have had.

At least they had the guts not to be put off by fear. This country cant even change their flag without sh1tting it

[bohemian]

Thread title is 'Black Monday' perhaps we should see what happens on Monday morning.

[workingdad]

Thread title is 'Black Monday' perhaps we should see what happens on Monday morning.

One would think the likelihood of a further drop for the nzx is on the cards.

Maybe another 1% like the news said 😜

[BlackPeter]

That is many of the negatives.. Are there no positives ??

Sure ... Brexit has lots of positives:
1) Europe does not have to buy anymore the terrible British food ...:t_up:
2) Europe can set an example (I guess they have to) ... and make sure that no other country after Britain will want to leave the EU. The positive: Great that the Brits did volunteer to take this role ...
3) tons of additional workplaces in Frankfurt and Amsterdam ... to do all the banking tasks they used to do so far in London
4) Britain will turn into an outstanding educational example what is going to happen if the downtrodden plebs is voting for idiots. Not sure, whether the US Americans get the message, but at least they have another chance to consider whether they really want to vote for Trump and follow the British example.

[Baa_Baa]

Futures are leaping around like bucking bronco on P. Let's see how they react as reality sinks in, the DOW for example priced in a Brexit STAY at the close this morning (NZ time), then of course it went the other way, so right now the Futures are down over 600 pips, it will be the UK / US bourses close Friday (Sat AM our time) that signal the NZX move on Monday.

[troyvdh]

Thanks bohemian....why don't folk take a few deep breathes...and perhaps adopt an attitude re investments as less like a casino....and more like a more realistic horizon greater than just today..just saying

[Hoop]

That is many of the negatives.. Are there no positives ??

They may have fixed their deflation problem :D

EDIT:...I would've loved to be a fly on Aunty Janet's wall when her phone started to ring...My imagination is running wild on what her first spoken word would've been:eek2:

[janner]

Sure ... Brexit has lots of positives:
1) Europe does not have to buy anymore the terrible British food ....

Europe will still be getting " terrible British food " CURRY and KEBABS. with all of the mass immigration :-)))

[Gizzajob I can do that]

At least they had the guts not to be put off by fear. This country cant even change their flag without sh1tting it

Well said that man, NZ will go through something similar in time and if you live in Auckland its not to far away!

[percy]

Well today I gave a lot back to the market.
About half of what I gave back at 9/11.
Then it took about a month for my portfolio to recover,and then steadily increase.
I wonder whether it will take less than a month this time?

[Bobdn]

I gave an obscene amount of cash back today through ANZ and BHP and yet I'm so happy with the Brexit outcome. Weird feeling.

[Xerof]

The BSD's got this all wrong for a change. The days highlight for me though was Led Zeppelin's victory in the plagiarism suit brought against them. Now thats worth a whole lotta love :t_up:

[troyvdh]

Percy...are you serious...I have always viewed you as a seasoned fella....this stuff will continue in all likelyhood for years.....Like ...that's why markets exist....exist

[Hoop]

Well today I gave a lot back to the market.
About half of what I gave back at 9/11.
Then it took about a month for my portfolio to recover,and then steadily increase.
I wonder whether it will take less than a month this time?

Amazingly for me I had an up day...thanks to CAV.. although its small change as I've been cashed up for a little while now and just been dabbling to stop the boredom..
I thought about jumping in today...but then my sanity returned...a lot of TA breakdowns occurred today within an expensive overvalued market..My feeling is that Brexit may the catalyst for that well overdue correction..They say Patience is a virtue..so I will wait and see..

Stuffed full of cash, today I felt like a vulture for the first time in years..nice feeling being in control and not at the mercy of the market..:)


https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQOMIcCIJvCCIavuQJH9LnFugLg_04Z0 04TcOLjynUaCVPukn2G

[percy]

Amazingly for me I had an up day...thanks to CAV.. although its small change as I've been cashed up for a little while now and just been dabbling to stop the boredom..
I thought about jumping in today...but then my sanity returned...a lot of TA breakdowns occurred today within an expensive overvalued market..My feeling is that Brexit may the catalyst for that well overdue correction..They say Patience is a virtue..so I will wait and see..

Stuffed full of cash, today I felt like a vulture for the first time in years..nice feeling being in control and not at the mercy of the market..:)


https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQOMIcCIJvCCIavuQJH9LnFugLg_04Z0 04TcOLjynUaCVPukn2G

Great position to be in.
Well done with your CAV upgrade.

[winner69]

Cameron resigns

Hopefully Theresa May will be able to unite everybody to execute a smooth exit. She a level headed capable woman.

[sb9]

Amazingly for me I had an up day...thanks to CAV.. although its small change as I've been cashed up for a little while now and just been dabbling to stop the boredom..
I thought about jumping in today...but then my sanity returned...a lot of TA breakdowns occurred today within an expensive overvalued market..My feeling is that Brexit may the catalyst for that well overdue correction..They say Patience is a virtue..so I will wait and see..

Stuffed full of cash, today I felt like a vulture for the first time in years..nice feeling being in control and not at the mercy of the market..:)


https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQOMIcCIJvCCIavuQJH9LnFugLg_04Z0 04TcOLjynUaCVPukn2G


Good for you Hoop, that way you be your own boss right.?

My portfolio wasn't too bad gave lil bit back but no red arrows at all, sold one of my long term stock which I was thinking of getting rid of anyway. Got some cash on hand for next week and narrowed down few I'm keen to dip my toes in. No rush just when I feel comfortable, there'll be short term jitters for a while!!!

[percy]

Percy...are you serious...I have always viewed you as a seasoned fella....this stuff will continue in all likelyhood for years.....Like ...that's why markets exist....exist

Maybe,but my portfolio is made up with companies whose eps is growing, and have the capacity to keep increasing their dividends.
So in the short term the value of my portfolio may slightly decrease, while the income [fully imputed dividends] keeps increasing.
My portfolio is now at the stage where the value is of less importance than the income it generates.

[janner]

EDIT:...I would've loved to be a fly on Aunty Janet's wall when her phone started to ring...My imagination is running wild on what her first spoken word would've been:eek2:

At a guess... OY VE !!.. But that is two.

[ratkin]

Cameron resigns

Hopefully Theresa May will be able to unite everybody to execute a smooth exit. She a level headed capable woman.

He looked shocked, incredible events. Boris really will be in number 10 soon. Some of the banks down 20%

[Hoop]

At a guess... OY VE !!.. But that is two.

Maybe, she is a model Aunty and said "Goodness Gracious Me"......Nah!! ... anyway that's 3 words

[Bobdn]

Cameron resigns

Hopefully Theresa May will be able to unite everybody to execute a smooth exit. She a level headed capable woman.

Really, why do say that?

[Hoop]

European markets have been interesting..FTSE100 is the least down. -4.9%..It seems Mr Market is currently assuming the economically weaker EU Countries are going to suffer more from the UK exit fallout than the UK itself
Greece currently -14% Italy -11.5% Spain -10.9% ..these numbers are serious stuff...destructive falls?

[couta1]

I wont be watching the markets next week as I'm sure it will be more than just a black monday, need to wait for all the cliff jumpers to do their business and float off down the river,no point in inflicting pain on yourself by watching the carnage. I'm looking forward to a couple of XOS divvy payments coming up courtesy of Air and Spark and I'm sure Rymans building program will continue and Trilogy products will keep flying of the shelves etc etc Probably have to go fishing to cope with the marketitis withdrawal symptoms(No internet connection at spot X)

[bohemian]

It seems that now other EU far right parties are demanding a referendum. This volatility could go on for a while.

[percy]

Well today has been another busy day collecting dividends,with Comvita's,Ryman's and Trilogy's adding to the bank balance.

[percy]

It seems that now other EU far right parties are demanding a referendum. This volatility could go on for a while.

With the swing to the far right do you think Mike Hosking may keep his job?...lol.

[workingdad]

Does anyone think the government or central Bank of England is or will be intervening in their market like the Chinese do?

[fungus pudding]

Does anyone think the government or central Bank of England is or will be intervening in their market like the Chinese do?

Very possible. They'll certainly be watching things carefully for the next few weeks till they can see the likely long term trend. They won't spring a kneejerk reaction first thing next week.

[stoploss]

Does anyone think the government or central Bank of England is or will be intervening in their market like the Chinese do?
Swiss National Bank has already been in .... My pick is Greece , Italy will be very nervous .....
so plenty of central bank action , however BOE would not be in the stock market like the Chinese ...

[BlackPeter]

Just love it:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boris-johnson-booed-angry-crowd-8272366

Just wondering what these people expected? Following Boris and watching the pound to rise?

[fungus pudding]

Does anyone think the government or central Bank of England is or will be intervening in their market like the Chinese do?

http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/bank-england-opens-250billion-war-8272080

[BlackPeter]

Well today I gave a lot back to the market.
About half of what I gave back at 9/11.
Then it took about a month for my portfolio to recover,and then steadily increase.
I wonder whether it will take less than a month this time?

Well, I am down about 2% - mainly due to some retirement stocks (no idea, how they are effected by the Brexit, but they went down), NZR (dito) and OIC (yes, I expected these to go a bit down with this election result). Not too bad ... and agree - in my view more likely to recover sooner (at least the retirement stocks) than later. Hold as well a bit more cash than usual ... who know, maybe a bargain or two to pickup later next week?

Hoop - interesting comment about this being a potential trigger for the downturn ... I guess, I see what you mean, but on the other hand - as long as the low interest rate environment stays can't I really see stocks dropping too much. Obviously - if interest rates go up or if earnings go down, things will change.

Always wanted to buy FPH for $3 and TIL for $1,50 ...;) Sorry guys, just dreaming ...

[Hoop]

Swiss National Bank has already been in .... My pick is Greece , Italy will be very nervous .....
so plenty of central bank action , however BOE would not be in the stock market like the Chinese ...
The Swiss Central Bank intervention today was to counter the sharp rise in their currency..A neutral country seen as a financial safe haven and not in the EU.. I guess an unwelcome flood of money arrived today...a problem which Greece wish it had..

[Hoop]

Hoop - interesting comment about this being a potential trigger for the downturn ... I guess, I see what you mean, but on the other hand - as long as the low interest rate environment stays can't I really see stocks dropping too much. Obviously - if interest rates go up or if earnings go down, things will change.

Always wanted to buy FPH for $3 and TIL for $1,50 ...;) Sorry guys, just dreaming ...

Yep..earning rates may get lowered...interest rates could go negative.. e.g possible recession in Europe?..I think Mother England is a big girl and will look after itself reasonable well, they say she might go into recession...but I think the EU may suffer also....a bit like a plane losing an engine..eh?
A CAPE of 25 on Wall St is not sustainable either-side of the inflation sweet spot (1%)..The EU and USA are the top two, equally as big economic powerhouses in the World (EU was until today) and are linked, so one could affect the other..e.g lower growth (earnings).

Always wanted to buy FPH for $3 and TIL for $1,50 ...;) Sorry guys, just dreaming ... Hang on Black P..I'll dust off my time machine..but I urge caution as it works about as well as my crystal ball

[Bjauck]

European markets have been interesting..FTSE100 is the least down. -4.9%..It seems Mr Market is currently assuming the economically weaker EU Countries are going to suffer more from the UK exit fallout than the UK itself
Greece currently -14% Italy -11.5% Spain -10.9% ..these numbers are serious stuff...destructive falls? You have to factor in the fact that GBP has depreciated at least 6% against the Euro. The FTSE also has a high proportion of multinational companies.

[Bjauck]

Yep..earning rates may get lowered...interest rates could go negative.. e.g possible recession in Europe?..I think Mother England is a big girl and will look after itself reasonable well, they say she might go into recession...but I think the EU may suffer also....a bit like a plane losing an engine..eh?... Maybe like losing an engine that was mounted at slightly the wrong angle. Best case scenario is that EU functions better without an unenthusiastic member and that the UK also thrives at arms length to the EU. Unfortunately the chance of that best case I put at 5:1

[Hoop]

You have to factor in the fact that GBP has depreciated at least 6% against the Euro. The FTSE also has a high proportion of multinational companies.
Yes very true..Thxs Bjauck I overlooked that..

Maybe like losing an engine that was mounted at slightly the wrong angle. Best case scenario is that EU functions better without an unenthusiastic member and that the UK also thrives at arms length to the EU. Unfortunately the chance of that best case I put at 5:1
There are a lot of very intelligent people which I have no doubt have had lots of time to outline Britain's contingency plan going forward if this unlikely outcome turned into reality..

[bull....]

still going only another 11hrs to go lol but im thinking we will only see an adjustment to certain pricing as nothing has really changed yet? uk still in eu, they have there own currency guess the wild card is the eu reaction

[Bobdn]

I wont be watching the markets next week as I'm sure it will be more than just a black monday, need to wait for all the cliff jumpers to do their business and float off down the river,no point in inflicting pain on yourself by watching the carnage. I'm looking forward to a couple of XOS divvy payments coming up courtesy of Air and Spark and I'm sure Rymans building program will continue and Trilogy products will keep flying of the shelves etc etc Probably have to go fishing to cope with the marketitis withdrawal symptoms(No internet connection at spot X)

Yes good idea, it's going to be nasty for a while I guess. I'm not looking forward to updating my net worth at the end of this month.

[janner]

Some good discussions on here.

https://www.rt.com/on-air/

[BlackCross]

Some short to medium term economic problems ahead for the UK I feel. The EU are going to be as spiteful as they can get away with IMO.

[couta1]

Comments from a Chief US market strategist this morning hit the nail on the head for me. "What is occurring is traders are rushing for the exits and can't get out fast enough but as investors we must not panic, keeping in mind that the process of the UK exiting the EU will occur over a period of 2 years not weeks or months" Added to that is the fact that interest rates are going to remain lower for longer now, so once the dust settles where do you think people are going to put their money to get a decent return?

[Nasi Goreng]

There is nothing wrong with getting a bit defensive in a situation like this. The opportunity was there for all investors yesterday as NZX was very slow to move down despite futures showing massive falls in overseas markets.

Closing your eyes and covering your ears is one strategy but why go for the ride with 100% of your portfolio when there is also a chance it might not rebound to recent highs for quite some time.

[skid]

Comments from a Chief US market strategist this morning hit the nail on the head for me. "What is occurring is traders are rushing for the exits and can't get out fast enough but as investors we must not panic, keeping in mind that the process of the UK exiting the EU will occur over a period of 2 years not weeks or months" Added to that is the fact that interest rates are going to remain lower for longer now, so once the dust settles where do you think people are going to put their money to get a decent return?

That old rationalization is not looking nearly as flash now--Its now about whether this will spread to other European countries wanting to exit.
The 'buy and hold strategy'' is not bullet proof.

It has'nt always paid in spades(greed factor)but im glad Ive got a bit of the gold stuff atm. ..the shares...eh..not so glad.

[skid]

There is nothing wrong with getting a bit defensive in a situation like this. The opportunity was there for all investors yesterday as NZX was very slow to move down despite futures showing massive falls in overseas markets.

Closing your eyes and covering your ears is one strategy but why go for the ride with 100% of your portfolio when there is also a chance it might not rebound to recent highs for quite some time.

anyone with shares 100% is playing with fire imo----The serious stuff though is the banks...hopefully they will weather the storm.--they say the British banks are cashed up for this sort of thing---Lets hope some of the other European get a helping hand if they need it.

David Cameron really shot himself in the foot this time---putting the economic world in danger just to try and score some political points for his party ---The idealist part of me thinks ''good on you'' to the British for their ''stuff you'' to the system--the pragmatic side says it was stupidly dangerous. Of course the politicians are also to blame for creating such an unfair system for them to react to. Maggie Thatchers chickens finally coming home to roost.

[workingdad]

2 trillion wiped off globally. That's a decent hit and lots of trading so some big losses actually realised.

Looking at other markets overnight trailing us, I wonder if we have some more to go down yet on Monday. Surprisingly though, the FTSE recovered to finish better off than the USA.

One thing for sure, some instability ahead and big money pushing things around, to what extent remains to be seen.

Is this the catalyst for the correction some have been thinking was coming? Central banks are going to have some work to do to avoid a crisis, we know what happened when banks got smashed in the GFC and they aren't fearing too well right now but better than the 30% drop at one stage of the day.

[Nasi Goreng]

The FTSE drop was modest but if you are an overseas investor on the FTSE in pounds, then it was a very ugly day.

[777]

The FTSE drop was modest but if you are an overseas investor on the FTSE in pounds, then it was a very ugly day.

But if you are a Brit overseas investor your investments in £'s have increased.

[workingdad]

Good points re the pound.

Watching CNN a bit this morning and plenty of good points been made. One that sticks with me is this isn't just about Brexit, its the entirety of the EU which is a big factor in global economics.

We are investors and looking at share markets with such uncertainty there will be some episodes of gradual claw backs here and there but then another announcement that results in sharp drops. Don't know about others but I am not looking forward to the next few weeks. Might be looking for an exit myself with what I have left in after cashing up everything towards the start of the year - then coming back in here and there dabbling (AIR was one of them and it wasn't a good result) but I will be honest here, I am not sure I want to or have the nerve to ride this one out.

[King1212]

Good points re the pound.

Watching CNN a bit this morning and plenty of good points been made. One that sticks with me is this isn't just about Brexit, its the entirety of the EU which is a big factor in global economics.

We are investors and looking at share markets with such uncertainty there will be some episodes of gradual claw backs here and there but then another announcement that results in sharp drops. Don't know about others but I am not looking forward to the next few weeks. Might be looking for an exit myself with what I have left in after cashing up everything towards the start of the year - then coming back in here and there dabbling (AIR was one of them and it wasn't a good result) but I will be honest here, I am not sure I want to or have the nerve to ride this one out.

Will be okay..warren buffet said"don't be afraid the share price down but be afraid when the business goes down"

so long that we invest in companies with good growth then ignore the noises...

[fungus pudding]

Comments from a Chief US market strategist this morning hit the nail on the head for me. "What is occurring is traders are rushing for the exits and can't get out fast enough but as investors we must not panic, keeping in mind that the process of the UK exiting the EU will occur over a period of 2 years not weeks or months" Added to that is the fact that interest rates are going to remain lower for longer now, so once the dust settles where do you think people are going to put their money to get a decent return?

An extrtemely good point. Finding a home for money has been difficult enough for the last decade.

[skid]

Will be okay..warren buffet said"don't be afraid the share price down but be afraid when the business goes down"

so long that we invest in companies with good growth then ignore the noises...

You reckon this is what he meant by ''noises''----all of us have many things stored in that ''over the shoulder computer'' but not all of us have the GFC memories there.

[skid]

An extrtemely good point. Finding a home for money has been difficult enough for the last decade.

To make money? ..or protect money----best I could come up with for the latter was Kiwi Bonds and pay off the mortgage if you are able.

Disc.-this is one of those weird situations where i hope Im wrong about having concerns.

[fungus pudding]

To make money? ..or protect money----best I could come up with for the latter was Kiwi Bonds and pay off the mortgage if you are able.

Disc.-this is one of those weird situations where i hope Im wrong about having concerns.

Earning and protecting. Earning money is essential to protect the capital from inflation. And yes - pay off mortgages, particularly any that are not tax effective. But really nothing much will happen here that many of us haven't lived through before. In less than a year, looking back, it will look like the Asian crisis or the GFC.

[Bjauck]

Some short to medium term economic problems ahead for the UK I feel. The EU are going to be as spiteful as they can get away with IMO.

The Brexit side claimed that the Remain side were scaremongering.
However already the coveted AAA rating for the UK from S&P is gone http://fortune.com/2016/06/24/britains-aaa-credit-rating-untenable-after-brexit-vote/
Several banks have already indicated jobs will go from London to Paris and Dublin. Unsurprising that Boris Johnson was booed in London.
Unsettling of the peace accord in Ireland could spark destablisation and resumption of terrorism there.
Another (more likely successful) push for Scottish independence as a result of this result could have additional economic consequences.
Long term problems for the UK & what's the betting that the Brexiteers will blame anybody but themselves?

[BlackCross]

At least the Brits can always laugh at themselves:

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/06/24/boris-johnsons-brexit-facebook-page/

[Bobdn]

Earning and protecting. Earning money is essential to protect the capital from inflation. And yes - pay off mortgages, particularly any that are not tax effective. But really nothing much will happen here that many of us haven't lived through before. In less than a year, looking back, it will look like the Asian crisis or the GFC.

or 4.5 years, the average time it took for markets to recover after a major collapse over the last 100 years. 25 years being the longest (from October 1929 of course). Hmm what will I be doing in 25 years time...oh I know, i'll be dead.

[fungus pudding]

or 4.5 years, the average time it took for markets to recover after a major collapse over the last 100 years. 25 years being the longest (from October 1929 of course). Hmm what will I be doing in 25 years time...oh I know, i'll be dead.

I'll join you in that one. Probably beat you to it.

[skid]

I'll join you in that one. Probably beat you to it.

you guys are going to be accused of being a ''glass half empty'' kind of person:)

[King1212]

If the US or China, I would be very scared....but it is only UK...leaving the union n business as usual as it will take 2 years to change the laws n rules....some people are just paranoid n taking the opportunities to scare the market so they can pick n buy a cheap stock....trust your research with the companies that u invested.....

[skid]

If the US or China, I would be very scared....but it is only UK...leaving the union n business as usual as it will take 2 years to change the laws n rules....some people are just paranoid n taking the opportunities to scare the market so they can pick n buy a cheap stock....trust your research with the companies that u invested.....

Your neglecting the ''human'' factor--(will others also want to leave?)....lets hope it settles fast

We may need to research human psycology.

[JBmurc]

The Brexit side claimed that the Remain side were scaremongering.
However already the coveted AAA rating for the UK from S&P is gone http://fortune.com/2016/06/24/britains-aaa-credit-rating-untenable-after-brexit-vote/
Several banks have already indicated jobs will go from London to Paris and Dublin. Unsurprising that Boris Johnson was booed in London.
Unsettling of the peace accord in Ireland could spark destablisation and resumption of terrorism there.
Another (more likely successful) push for Scottish independence as a result of this result could have additional economic consequences.
Long term problems for the UK & what's the betting that the Brexiteers will blame anybody but themselves?

....Unlikely Doomsday BS ..UK is the fifth largest economy in the world...and now with a much lower pound is going be great for exports and tourism .. the EU is going the way of the titanic >> the UK is getting its Sovereignty back .....The EU, which deliberately vests supreme power in the hands of unelected officials ...for the benefits of the Corporations ,Banks ...

I can't believe the scots would want to remain in the EU which has been a rolling disaster ,,,,,just look at GDP growth sub 1% since 95 yet debt ,money printing out of control ,,PIGS will default yet again >>>


8122

[BlackPeter]

At least the Brits can always laugh at themselves:

http://www.thepoke.co.uk/2016/06/24/boris-johnsons-brexit-facebook-page/

Brilliant ...

[Bobdn]

Agree with everything you said, JBMurc. Merkel is now talking reform of the EU for the first time, something she wouldn't have said before yesterday. Oh dear I suspect Frau Merkel must be a little nervous with the result. What a shocking bloated mess the EU has become (or always was). Found this movie interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0

[JBmurc]

Yes Its shocking that ANYONE believes that GREAT Britain NEEDS the EU to tell them how to run their country, make the laws, fix the trade, control the boarders .....

Like the youtube clip the laws created by the 40,000 EU Bureaucrats is just so over board ...40 laws round toothpaste etc..

Would kiwis like to see an unelected mass of foreign bureaucrats decide how our country should be run ..make our laws .??

[Lewylewylewy]

I have got the nerve to ride this out and no I'm not looking forward to the next few weeks either,but for the first time in over 3 years I won't be glued to depth charts nor studying every bit of news from every direction every morning. No in order to have the nerve to ride it out with a 100% equity exposure, I will be restraining from looking at the market or reading and commenting on this forum starting Monday morning.Just need a few more dumps of snow to provide a further distraction,if your going to ride it out no point in torturing yourself by watching and analyzing the carnage to bits.

Gutted to lose the Couta1 comments, especially on the retirement villages 😞

I personally did ok from the brexit, I had sold off 35% of my shares the week before as a hedge. I'm just waiting for the bottom to buy in again, then I'll be monitoring whether there's a knock on and timing my exit prior to that, to try to catch all the dead cat bounces. I'm even looking at selling my rental to get money for cheap stocks (but also lower my costs so I have more money for fun).

Totally didn't expect this result, thought the British media had properly sated the Brits, but didn't realise that the tabloids were routing for exit (even though someone this forum mentioned they were!).

Hope everyone else on here is able to do well, or at least not to badly from this. On the plus side, if nothing comes off it in the next 3 months (off chance it could be a slow effect), we'll see a dead cat before any potential future drops.

[Lewylewylewy]

....Unlikely Doomsday BS ..UK is the fifth largest economy in the world...and now with a much lower pound is going be great for exports and tourism .. the EU is going the way of the titanic >> the UK is getting its Sovereignty back .....The EU, which deliberately vests supreme power in the hands of unelected officials ...for the benefits of the Corporations ,Banks ...

I can't believe the scots would want to remain in the EU which has been a rolling disaster ,,,,,just look at GDP growth sub 1% since 95 yet debt ,money printing out of control ,,PIGS will default yet again >>>


8122

Scotland wants the EU because they get lots of financial benefits and less of the issues. Where they vote will depend on the success of the UK and ability to maintain the benefits to Scotland.

[percy]

I always look for guidance from the USA,in particular the S&P500 index.
This morning it was down 3.59% to 2037.41.
Last year it dropped at one stage to 1829.08.
I take this to mean the US see Brexit as a minor hiccup.
I agree with them.

[BlackPeter]

Yes Its shocking that ANYONE believes that GREAT Britain NEEDS the EU to tell them how to run their country, make the laws, fix the trade, control the boarders .....

Like the youtube clip the laws created by the 40,000 EU Bureaucrats is just so over board ...40 laws round toothpaste etc..

Would kiwis like to see an unelected mass of foreign bureaucrats decide how our country should be run ..make our laws .??

Ah well, Britain might not be that "GREAT" anymore, and neither stay a "United" Kingdom - LOL. Apparently do the North Ireland Peace Treaties require Britain to stay in the EU ... will be interesting to see how this works out. Maybe not just Scotland leaving.

Just some minor changes to your "funny" picture (I am sure I have seen the same picture for many occasions before - recycling?): Replace the EU-sail and the German flag with the Butchers apron - and put the Scottish and the Irish Flag on the smaller boat (which moves into safer waters), than the picture is at least realistic.

[Bjauck]

....Unlikely Doomsday BS ..UK is the fifth largest economy in the world...and now with a much lower pound is going be great for exports and tourism .. the EU is going the way of the titanic >> the UK is getting its Sovereignty back .....The EU, which deliberately vests supreme power in the hands of unelected officials ...for the benefits of the Corporations ,Banks ...

I can't believe the scots would want to remain in the EU which has been a rolling disaster ,,,,,just look at GDP growth sub 1% since 95 yet debt ,money printing out of control ,,PIGS will default yet again >>>


8122

Doomsday BS Really?
The Brexit side claimed that the Remain side were scaremongering. Just refer to the Brexit Speeches
However already the coveted AAA rating for the UK from S&P is gone http://fortune.com/2016/06/24/britai...r-brexit-vote/ It is already happening
Several banks have already indicated jobs will go from London to Paris and Dublin. Search it and look on the news sites Banks have started to announce their new intentions
Unsurprising that Boris Johnson was booed in London. Google it
Unsettling of the peace accord in Ireland could spark destablisation and resumption of terrorism there. Conjecture true but Sinn Fein have already stated they want a referendum on a united Ireland. The republic of Ireland are concerned about the loss of open borders. Search it
Another (more likely successful) push for Scottish independence as a result of this result could have additional economic consequences. It was close last time. Sturgeon has already stated that the result means another referendum is called for.
Long term problems for the UK My opinion based on the expert opinions of economists and others during the campaign.
& what's the betting that the Brexiteers will blame anybody but themselves? My opinion

[kura]

New leaders ? ( Boris Johnson & Donald Trump )

It's part of an international conspiracy against hairdressers !

[Bobdn]

Gutted to lose the Couta1 comments, especially on the retirement villages 

I personally did ok from the brexit, I had sold off 35% of my shares the week before as a hedge. I'm just waiting for the bottom to buy in again, then I'll be monitoring whether there's a knock on and timing my exit prior to that, to try to catch all the dead cat bounces. I'm even looking at selling my rental to get money for cheap stocks (but also lower my costs so I have more money for fun).

Totally didn't expect this result, thought the British media had properly sated the Brits, but didn't realise that the tabloids were routing for exit (even though someone this forum mentioned they were!).

Hope everyone else on here is able to do well, or at least not to badly from this. On the plus side, if nothing comes off it in the next 3 months (off chance it could be a slow effect), we'll see a dead cat before any potential future drops.


Couta's done the right thing. Too many of us march to the beat of the market drum on a minute by minute basis. It's good to check out for awhile.

[Bjauck]

New leaders ? ( Boris Johnson & Donald Trump )

It's part of an international conspiracy against hairdressers !

Maybe the Anglophone World is getting leaders who are the antithesis of Euro style and panache?

[fungus pudding]

New leaders ? ( Boris Johnson & Donald Trump )

It's part of an international conspiracy against hairdressers !

I reckon Trump and Angela Merkle have the same hairdresser.

[blackcap]

I always look for guidance from the USA,in particular the S&P500 index.
This morning it was down 3.59% to 2037.41.
Last year it dropped at one stage to 1829.08.
I take this to mean the US see Brexit as a minor hiccup.
I agree with them.

wholeheartedly agree. This is not the time to sell stocks, this is a huge buying opportunity especially if stocks fall further.

[workingdad]

wholeheartedly agree. This is not the time to sell stocks, this is a huge buying opportunity especially if stocks fall further.

Do you mean in nz or overseas?

Maybe I'm a glass half empty person at times but the uncertainty of the EU at a time where global growth was already less than solid is enough to potentially create more than a transient blip on the radar. We are all cogs in the same machine and theres a few worn and wobbly ones that have the potential to wreak some havoc. I'm not saying it's going to happen but it can't be ruled out so I'm exercising caution.

[fungus pudding]

or 4.5 years, the average time it took for markets to recover after a major collapse over the last 100 years. 25 years being the longest (from October 1929 of course). Hmm what will I be doing in 25 years time...oh I know, i'll be dead.

The worst I can recall was the 1987 crash. It took the dow a little over a year to return to pre-crash levels.

[warthog]

Yes Its shocking that ANYONE believes that GREAT Britain NEEDS the EU to tell them how to run their country, make the laws, fix the trade, control the boarders .....

Like the youtube clip the laws created by the 40,000 EU Bureaucrats is just so over board ...40 laws round toothpaste etc..

Would kiwis like to see an unelected mass of foreign bureaucrats decide how our country should be run ..make our laws .??

Sorry, your comments above are simplistic and misguided, and demonstrate your very limited understanding of the EU, and wholly ignore the collective benefits extended to EU member states (much of which is - intentionally - opaque to the UK population I might add).

UK politicians (MEPs, Members of the European Parliament, are generally representative of domestic political parties) are at the extreme end of the spectrum (not alone, mind you) when it comes to negotiating, influencing and ultimately ratifying EU laws, and then turning around to their domestic audience and pointing to the big bad EU as the source of all woes.

In short, UK domestic politicians, along with their counterparts from other EU member countries, are responsible for the very legislation, regulation and decision-making in the EU that they deride to a unsophisticated and gullible domestic audience. The UK media have a huge part to play in this, which is immediately obvious to anyone picking up a UK tabloid, for example.

If NZ was just off the coast of Europe, it would be applying for EU membership in a flash.

Note that much of the observations above are true to an extent of all EU members, but we are discussing UK in particular.

[blackcap]

Do you mean in nz or overseas?

Maybe I'm a glass half empty person at times but the uncertainty of the EU at a time where global growth was already less than solid is enough to potentially create more than a transient blip on the radar. We are all cogs in the same machine and theres a few worn and wobbly ones that have the potential to wreak some havoc. I'm not saying it's going to happen but it can't be ruled out so I'm exercising caution.

Both. If you look at stockmarket charts since 1929, its times like crisis's (pardon the spelling) that offer great entry opportunities. Look at 1987, 1998. 2000, 2008 etc. When the GFC hit the NZ market dipped to 3500 odd (from memory) and everyone was saying it was time to sell and get out because things were too uncertain and risky.

[skid]

wholeheartedly agree. This is not the time to sell stocks, this is a huge buying opportunity especially if stocks fall further.

http://thenudeinvestor.com/stock-market-crashes-are-we-about-to-experience-one-what-history-can-tell-us/

[workingdad]

Both. If you look at stockmarket charts since 1929, its times like crisis's (pardon the spelling) that offer great entry opportunities. Look at 1987, 1998. 2000, 2008 etc. When the GFC hit the NZ market dipped to 3500 odd (from memory) and everyone was saying it was time to sell and get out because things were too uncertain and risky.

I agree that buying at the bottom is the best opportunity but picking the bottom is the million dollar question. Was Friday a blip and business as usual Monday or are we going to see more declines. The weekend gives the experts time to form conclusions on opposite ends of the scale and time will tell which half got it right.

It's not a stretch to think the EU could crumble further which will have a global economic effect.

I don't think economies were that great for the last wee while and central banks have thrown billions at keeping things trucking along.

I'm not convinced for the nzx and others to follow the next couple of trading days are going to be good ones but who knows really.

Read that link Skid. Interesting take on things in February. Wonder how the updated charts measure up

[Joshuatree]

Just one more talking head who seeks kudos and financial rewards. Skid you've been on the sidelines for a long time ? Please correct me there if I'm wrong..Other than your AIR pick(unfortunate) .Opportunities lost or?.how has your strategy played out. Im not sure when the opportunity to start buying is yet. This could be the first wave down or the only. Ive built up re 10% in cash but bought more Goldies on friday hopefully to take advantage of the mkts being caught out with brexit. all the finanicial Instos etc opinions were sure of a remain and gold billion held has been caught short.

[Bjauck]

Those who want a chance of stability to return to the markets, may have to hope the Justice minister Theresa May, the second favourite, becomes the new UK PM. She was a low profile remainer. Here is her speech on the Brexit referendum. http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html
Maybe all those who supported a Brexit should read it...

[Tomtom]

Sorry, your comments above are simplistic and misguided, and demonstrate your very limited understanding of the EU, and wholly ignore the collective benefits extended to EU member states (much of which is - intentionally - opaque to the UK population I might add).

UK politicians (MEPs, Members of the European Parliament, are generally representative of domestic political parties) are at the extreme end of the spectrum (not alone, mind you) when it comes to negotiating, influencing and ultimately ratifying EU laws, and then turning around to their domestic audience and pointing to the big bad EU as the source of all woes.

In short, UK domestic politicians, along with their counterparts from other EU member countries, are responsible for the very legislation, regulation and decision-making in the EU that they deride to a unsophisticated and gullible domestic audience. The UK media have a huge part to play in this, which is immediately obvious to anyone picking up a UK tabloid, for example.

If NZ was just off the coast of Europe, it would be applying for EU membership in a flash.

Note that much of the observations above are true to an extent of all EU members, but we are discussing UK in particular. Quite an astute read in my view (as a brexpat). My feeling is that if Bank of England/Treasury projections are correct on entering recession and higher unemployment over the next few months/years public opinion will quickly sour.

It's easy to form and articulate an opposition argument to the EU but for the Brexit supporters the difficult decisions start with looking to form an effective government in a pro-EU parliament. Much less trying to negotiate market access with EU views (and wider international views) ranging between indifference and hostility to the UK, the view of most EU leaders seems to be they need to rip the plaster off expediently and have asked the UKs government to make good on their promise to invoke Lisbon - Article 50 rapidly. One certainty now is that people hoping that an out vote would lead to further negotiations definitely miscalculated the feeling in other EU countries.

David Cameron was politically astute to opt not to lead the UK towards Brexit, sometimes the whole nation needs to stick its collective hands into the fire to learn that fire is hot. Bank of Englands Governor Mark Carney was extremely helpful in calming market sentiment on Friday, though obviously with tools already stretched there may not be a lot he can do in the longer term to help the UK economy. Britain is still recovering from the financial crisis, while employment has returned inflation adjusted per capita income remains lower the pre-crisis period.

One of those moments when I am very happy to live about as far from the UK and it's political issues as geographically possible.

[JBmurc]

Sorry, your comments above are simplistic and misguided, and demonstrate your very limited understanding of the EU, and wholly ignore the collective benefits extended to EU member states (much of which is - intentionally - opaque to the UK population I might add).

UK politicians (MEPs, Members of the European Parliament, are generally representative of domestic political parties) are at the extreme end of the spectrum (not alone, mind you) when it comes to negotiating, influencing and ultimately ratifying EU laws, and then turning around to their domestic audience and pointing to the big bad EU as the source of all woes.

In short, UK domestic politicians, along with their counterparts from other EU member countries, are responsible for the very legislation, regulation and decision-making in the EU that they deride to a unsophisticated and gullible domestic audience. The UK media have a huge part to play in this, which is immediately obvious to anyone picking up a UK tabloid, for example.

If NZ was just off the coast of Europe, it would be applying for EU membership in a flash.

Note that much of the observations above are true to an extent of all EU members, but we are discussing UK in particular.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-v-micallef/europes-next-financial-cr_b_10315364.html

6-6-16

A new financial crisis is brewing in Europe, one that will prove as devastating as the last economic crisis. This one will also be centered in southern Europe—only this time, instead of the sovereign debt of the region’s governments, it will involve the commercial banking sector.

The last European financial crisis was triggered by sharply escalating interest rates on the government bonds of the EU’s southern members: Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Ireland, at the other end of the EU, was also included. Those countries debt levels were increasingly seen as unsupportable, given their deteriorating economies, raising fears of a default. Given that much of this government debt was held by European banks, a default by one or more countries threatened the stability of Europe’s entire banking sector.

The EU responded to the crisis by implementing a series of financial support mechanisms, such as the European Financial Stability Fund and the European Stability Mechanism, to provide emergency loans to those countries most affected by skyrocketing interest rates. The European Central Bank also acted to lower interest rates, in some cases by buying government bonds and private debt, and providing low interest loans of more than one trillion euros to ensure the liquidity of Europe’s banking sector.

In the case of Greece, EU members agreed to write-off about 50 percent of the face value of Athens’s sovereign debt, as well as provide a series of loans to keep the Greek government solvent. Despite never ending discussions on renegotiating Greece’s debt, the crisis, now into its fifth year, shows no sign of resolution.



..............Also if NZ was on the coast of the EU it would be another "Sicily" population 5mill ..unemployment 20% huge debt issues....no thanks I like where we are ....

[kura]

Those who want a chance of stability to return to the markets, may have to hope the Justice minister Theresa May, the second favourite, becomes the new UK PM. She was a low profile remainer. Here is her speech on the Brexit referendum. http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html
Maybe all those who supported a Brexit should read it...

Given the closeness of vote, it would make sense to have a more concillatory PM.
But sorry I like Boris Johnson's hairdresser better !

[Ghost Monkey]

..............Also if NZ was on the coast of the EU it would be another "Sicily" population 5mill ..unemployment 20% huge debt issues....no thanks I like where we are ....[/QUOTE]

Nah, we'd be more like Ireland 8 yrs ago.... Wet, plenty of "drink" and a mountain of mortgage debt!

[workingdad]

Baa Baa has been pretty helpful on the thread 'using TA to time entries and exits as have others.

I would be interested in more experienced take on the NZX chart.

I am looking at charts and taking on the commentary Baa Baa and others have offered and even before the Brexit fall on Friday it has been in a downtrend for a few weeks now, broke through the 50MA on the 15th June, last time it did that was at the start of the year when we had that rather stubborn drop and of course in September 2015.

Recovered both times and I guess the 100 and 200MA would be of more significance but bearing in mind developing concerns over the EU and Brexit is there something in the chart to support things aren't too rosy.

[Bjauck]

..............Also if NZ was on the coast of the EU it would be another "Sicily" population 5mill ..unemployment 20% huge debt issues....no thanks I like where we are ....

Nah, we'd be more like Ireland 8 yrs ago.... Wet, plenty of "drink" and a mountain of mortgage debt![/QUOTE] I could see John Key as the PM of the Isles of S(c)illy...

[Baa_Baa]

@Workingdad, not at this stage, NZX50 is in a massive 5+ year uptrend, one of the best performing markets in the world. It's popped below the 50EMA Friday but still well above the long MA's. It would have to drop a few 1000 points before a serious bull trend breakdown. To be honest though, no technical analysis of the index is going to help investors make decisions about their individual shares at the moment, especially with a Brexit event and the likely follow on turmoil. TA might be useful for those trying to find signals of a confirmed bottom and reversal for their shares, but who knows when that's going to happen. Take it day by day, observe, assess, decide.

[kizame]

I think the markets have been looking for a catalyst for a correction or continuation,and Brexit or Bremain was to be it. The nzx has powered up since Feb. so a correction was needed. Firstly always look at the Dow Jones and S&P 500 on the weekly and monthly charts to see what is happening,and with those two indexes,the pattern has been a rounding top,now i think they may have broken out with a Bremain or maybe not,but at the end of the day,these indexes lead the nzx and other world indexes.
As for MAs the nz index is a long way from the 200ma,but the other indexes are sitting right on them and will probably penetrate them next week,in situations like these moving averages won't offer much support IMOP.

[workingdad]

@Workingdad, not at this stage, NZX50 is in a massive 5+ year uptrend, one of the best performing markets in the world. It's popped below the 50EMA Friday but still well above the long MA's. It would have to drop a few 1000 points before a serious bull trend breakdown. To be honest though, no technical analysis of the index is going to help investors make decisions about their individual shares at the moment, especially with a Brexit event and the likely follow on turmoil. TA might be useful for those trying to find signals of a confirmed bottom and reversal for their shares, but who knows when that's going to happen. Take it day by day, observe, assess, decide.

Thanks for that, this chart thing is hard to get a grip on..... I'm happy to sit back and see what happens, no itchy trigger finger this time round.

Cheers

[skid]

Just one more talking head who seeks kudos and financial rewards. Skid you've been on the sidelines for a long time ? Please correct me there if I'm wrong..Other than your AIR pick(unfortunate) .Opportunities lost or?.how has your strategy played out. Im not sure when the opportunity to start buying is yet. This could be the first wave down or the only. Ive built up re 10% in cash but bought more Goldies on friday hopefully to take advantage of the mkts being caught out with brexit. all the finanicial Instos etc opinions were sure of a remain and gold billion held has been caught short.

I took another small dabble in AIR (like a fool)--Its my only share,but I do have Gold so not all is bad atm..so aside from AIR my powder is dry(unless banks or property takes a hit)...I think there would be alot of carnage on the share market before that happens though.
Hopefully things will settle,but the UK possibly splitting up is a sobering thought--thats alot more than just economics.
I would venture to say that if they gave every one a chance to change their vote--the outcome would change--post voting blues are creeping in.
On the news it said the 2nd most googled thing in the UK today was ''what is the EU''

[Bobdn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38qlUfslIYw

Peter Schiff, always interesting. Thinks markets have overreacted. A good thing to listen to while you do your house work.

[warthog]

..............Also if NZ was on the coast of the EU it would be another "Sicily" population 5mill ..unemployment 20% huge debt issues....no thanks I like where we are ....

Nah, we'd be more like Ireland 8 yrs ago.... Wet, plenty of "drink" and a mountain of mortgage debt![/QUOTE]

Or maybe Ireland today, which is quite different to Ireland of 8 years ago...

[warthog]

Sorry, the hog doesn't bother with replies consisting of links and cut-and-paste material, unless it is accompanied by some sort of compelling or articulate commentary, or even maybe a coherent point or two…


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-v-micallef/europes-next-financial-cr_b_10315364.html

6-6-16

A new financial crisis is brewing in Europe, one that will prove as devastating as the last economic crisis. This one will also be centered in southern Europe—only this time, instead of the sovereign debt of the region’s governments, it will involve the commercial banking sector.

The last European financial crisis was triggered by sharply escalating interest rates on the government bonds of the EU’s southern members: Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Ireland, at the other end of the EU, was also included. Those countries debt levels were increasingly seen as unsupportable, given their deteriorating economies, raising fears of a default. Given that much of this government debt was held by European banks, a default by one or more countries threatened the stability of Europe’s entire banking sector.

The EU responded to the crisis by implementing a series of financial support mechanisms, such as the European Financial Stability Fund and the European Stability Mechanism, to provide emergency loans to those countries most affected by skyrocketing interest rates. The European Central Bank also acted to lower interest rates, in some cases by buying government bonds and private debt, and providing low interest loans of more than one trillion euros to ensure the liquidity of Europe’s banking sector.

In the case of Greece, EU members agreed to write-off about 50 percent of the face value of Athens’s sovereign debt, as well as provide a series of loans to keep the Greek government solvent. Despite never ending discussions on renegotiating Greece’s debt, the crisis, now into its fifth year, shows no sign of resolution.



..............Also if NZ was on the coast of the EU it would be another "Sicily" population 5mill ..unemployment 20% huge debt issues....no thanks I like where we are ....

[warthog]

Quite an astute read in my view (as a brexpat). My feeling is that if Bank of England/Treasury projections are correct on entering recession and higher unemployment over the next few months/years public opinion will quickly sour.

It's easy to form and articulate an opposition argument to the EU but for the Brexit supporters the difficult decisions start with looking to form an effective government in a pro-EU parliament. Much less trying to negotiate market access with EU views (and wider international views) ranging between indifference and hostility to the UK, the view of most EU leaders seems to be they need to rip the plaster off expediently and have asked the UKs government to make good on their promise to invoke Lisbon - Article 50 rapidly. One certainty now is that people hoping that an out vote would lead to further negotiations definitely miscalculated the feeling in other EU countries.

David Cameron was politically astute to opt not to lead the UK towards Brexit, sometimes the whole nation needs to stick its collective hands into the fire to learn that fire is hot. Bank of Englands Governor Mark Carney was extremely helpful in calming market sentiment on Friday, though obviously with tools already stretched there may not be a lot he can do in the longer term to help the UK economy. Britain is still recovering from the financial crisis, while employment has returned inflation adjusted per capita income remains lower the pre-crisis period.

One of those moments when I am very happy to live about as far from the UK and it's political issues as geographically possible.

Indeed.

Many Leave voters will slowly realise that they have ushered in a vastly different path for the UK for decades to come. Some other European countries require a much higher bar for decisions where the consequences are so far-reaching (e.g. 70%+), but in UK, a simple majority, as in FPP, will do, and the other lot can get stuffed. Winners, and losers. It's a simple model that doesn't require much to understand.

[Baa_Baa]

Indeed.

Many Leave voters will slowly realise that they have ushered in a vastly different path for the UK for decades to come. Some other European countries require a much higher bar for decisions where the consequences are so far-reaching (e.g. 70%+), but in UK, a simple majority, as in FPP, will do, and the other lot can get stuffed. Winners, and losers. It's a simple model that doesn't require much to understand.

They, the UK voters, have also ushered in a whole new future for the entire EU! Looks simple, just a referendum, but the results are far more reaching than just the used-to-be-United Kingdom or even the wider Europe trading block. I fully expect that the smaller destitute Euro countries suffering sovereign debt issues will press to leave as well, if they can see advantage from untying the apron strings. This is just the beginning.

[workingdad]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38qlUfslIYw

Peter Schiff, always interesting. Thinks markets have overreacted. A good thing to listen to while you do your house work.

I listened to it minus the housework. He doesn't paint a very good picture of the U.S. Economy. Even called it being in a recession.....

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks for that, this chart thing is hard to get a grip on..... I'm happy to sit back and see what happens, no itchy trigger finger this time round.

Cheers

Here's the chart (monthly), you can see that NZX50 is still well above the steep rising trend line, about 6200 which is also on the very long 20 month MA (approximates to a 400 day MA). A breakdown if it happened would still not bugger up the NZX bull trend, though it would certainly be hurtful for many blue chip shares. The bull breakdown (if it happened, and a BIG IF) is the trend line support around 4400 that converges on the 7 year bull market support at the peak of 2007 and the rising support trend line from the 2008 lows. If it got to there and broke down, well, that would be a disaster ... but that's a long way from where we are now. Just play it by ear, NZX has way more room to move before it's doom and gloom time, than almost every other international share market index.

I think the thing that these long charts show if nothing else, bearing in mind it is MONTHLY, is that that sharemarket declines happen slowly, they take many months or even years to unfold (just like the rises). One day called Brexit is not a fatal blow, it's a blip. Just watch and be patient for the follow though, if it happens.
8125

[blackcap]

Just play it by ear, NZX has way more room to move before it's doom and gloom time, than almost every other international share market index.

8125

Is that a symptom of the NZX being a Gross index whilst the other markets are Capital indexes?

[Hoop]

Is that a symptom of the NZX being a Gross index whilst the other markets are Capital indexes?

Black Cap...The daily chart broke an important support on the 14th June as predicted by the Bollinger Bands..Long term The NZX50 cap index monthly chart has to fall about another 15% to reach the bull/bear support..that's a lot of room..

Very long term...Needs about 30% drop to break the primary trend.

Mind you this is a little pointless for an investor wanting to preserve his/her assets

The problem with long term analysis is who want's to give back 30% of your capital to the market just to witness whether the NZX stays in a long term uptrend..what happens if it breaks its primary uptrend?

See my Post #1390 page 93 NZ50 good news thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!/page93) chart

Below is a table say you lose 30% you need the market to rise 43% to get back to breakeven.....thats why you see many articles saying you should stop out at 10%..
A 9 month bear market cycle correcting about 40 to 50% sounds OK until you look at the amount you need as a hold and holder to get back to breakeven..it usually takes years...



Percentage Loss
Percent Rise To Breakeven


10%
11%


15%
18%


20%
25%


25%
33%


30%
43%


35%
54%


40%
67%


45%
82%


50%
100%




Read more: The Art Of Selling A Losing Position | Investopedia (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/022002.asp#ixzz4Cb0Cd2GI) http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/022002.asp#ixzz4Cb0Cd2GI
Follow us: Investopedia on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf?id=arwjQmCEqr4l6Cadbi-bnq&u=Investopedia)