Black Monday

[alokdhir]

Rate cut coming earlier than Nov!!

Very possible ...but he may will like to start with 50bps cut so may wait till Nov meeting ....though it doesnt matter much now ...market will adjust the rates asap and stocks will start doing their gig also

[winner69]

The number RB looks at is the trimmed mean one

Stats NZ says: The trimmed-mean measures – which excludes extreme price movements – ranged from 3.4 to 3.8 percent in the 12 months to June 2024 quarter. This indicates that underlying inflation is higher than the 3.3 percent increase in the CPI.

Whatever the number things are still costing more and we’ll never get all the price rises over recent years will be ….so pain will continue for a lot

But as long as ‘investors’ make money because of rate cuts that’s good eh

[allfromacell]

Non-tradable inflation still too high at 0.9% for the quarter and 5.4% p.a.

I expect an August cut is a less likely now.

[alokdhir]

The number RB looks at is the trimmed mean one

Stats NZ says: The trimmed-mean measures – which excludes extreme price movements – ranged from 3.4 to 3.8 percent in the 12 months to June 2024 quarter. This indicates that underlying inflation is higher than the 3.3 percent increase in the CPI.

Whatever the number things are still costing more and we’ll never get all the price rises over recent years will be ….so pain will continue for a lot

But as long as ‘investors’ make money because of rate cuts that’s good eh

The way 10Y and NZD behaving ...Markets not very enthusiastic with CPI report ...so more work / wait maybe in order

[Bobdn]

The RBNZ needs to cut the OCR immediately. This will help my unhedged foreign stock picks in the competition.

[winner69]

The way 10Y and NZD behaving ...Markets not very enthusiastic with CPI report ...so more work / wait maybe in order

It was already priced in?

Forward looking are markets I’m told

[alokdhir]

It was already priced in?

Forward looking are markets I’m told

It was not fully ...wait for Aussy blokes to open and show us what real money thinks of this ...

But undertone is good ...we are surely over the hump and a bit

[Valuegrowth]

Rotation is taking place. I kept Interest on small caps as they had low pe ratios. Generally, Institutional investors overlook small caps.Small companies start as small and later they become big. Interest rates may come down at some point but the biggest question is will sky rocketed asset prices come down to the level which can prevent bursting bubbles and major market crashes? Coming period is very crucial for markets.

[winner69]

Knew change of government would fix things

Nat Party on X
Inflation has fallen to 3.3%. We are turning our economy around and winning the fight against inflation.

Bravo

[bull....]

Very possible ...but he may will like to start with 50bps cut so may wait till Nov meeting ....though it doesnt matter much now ...market will adjust the rates asap and stocks will start doing their gig also

market priced that in . inflation well under 3% now if you remove the 3 items outside there control.

[alokdhir]

•
Q2 inflation surprises the RBNZ to the downside again, with annual CPI inflation down to 3.3%, its lowest since mid-2021. Highly restrictive OCR settings are generating significant traction.


•
Non-tradable inflation has been slower to cool but this is partly reflective of cost driven influences that monetary policy should seek to look through. Stripping out some of these cost increases suggests that annual CPI inflation is already well below 3% and is rapidly cooling.


•
Today’s data tilts the risks towards earlier and larger OCR cuts. All remaining OCR decisions over 2024 are effectively ‘live’. In our view a 25bp OCR cut in November looks to be the bare minimum of what the RBNZ will need to deliver over 2024.




View of ASB

[Panda-NZ-]

Do Aussie banks make more from NZ with a high OCR?

Hopefully less ripped out of our struggling economy by them.

[Valuegrowth]

Non-tradable inflation still too high at 0.9% for the quarter and 5.4% p.a.

I expect an August cut is a less likely now.I agree. Those who argue inflation has come down should follow chid care cost, housing rent, air fares, food prices specially in restaurants, prices in retail sector and other places worldwide.On top of that many people unable to buy their first home any longer unless they drop to the correct prices. As underline issues have not solved completely I park my money in safe places now.

[stoploss]

Do Aussie banks make more from NZ with a high OCR?

Hopefully less ripped out of our struggling economy by them.

Be making plenty of money currently as their margins have blown out. Wholesale rates a lot lower and very little movement on mortgage rates ( ANZ 1 year 6.72 % )

[winner69]

From Luxon/Seymour/ Willis down the government crowing about beating rampant inflation

JFK once said “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.”

[Daytr]

From Luxon/Seymour/ Willis down the government crowing about beating rampant inflation

JFK once said “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.” BGP

Great quote

[winner69]

Can’t wait to hear Bradford do a rave on 1News tonight about inflation being beaten

She one passionate commentator

[Daytr]

I've been putting further thoughts into the changing interest rate environment and what it means for US stocks.

History is a great predictor of the past.
Most interest rate reductions have been to support an ailing economy and not as a result of reduced inflation. The late 70s excluded.

The US economy is actually doing pretty well and the Fed are looking to lower interest rates when stock markets are at all time highs.

Debt isn't an issue for the mega caps that have driven this incredible rally. But consumer debt will have some relief with lower interest rates, so more to spend.

Earnings are strong & could be strengthened further with lower interest rates. So perhaps history will not repeat.

Interested in others thoughts.

[causecelebre]

US Banks doing well on back of increasing bullishness of a Trump victory. Goldman particularly been on a tear pricing in more M & A and IPO’s following a GPO win. Morgan Stanley also has doing well for the same reason. Also as they mint new wealth through capital finance they direct the recipients towards their wealth management pipeline

[Old mate]

Can’t wait to hear Bradford do a rave on 1News tonight about inflation being beaten

She one passionate commentator




Got a good rant there winner:)

[winner69]

Great quote

Quotes are good …but can get you into trouble

Like in a past life I had to do a presentation to our Australian directors about why NZ wasn’t performing as it should …like now the market had collapsed ….. really cool presentation title ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ …..Aussies have no sense of humour and are so precious it didn’t go down well and I got told off and not try to be clever in future

Took that as a compliment

[troyvdh]

Then there is this quote ..."sharemarket rises on a wall of worries".....

[Valuegrowth]

Then there is this quote ..."sharemarket rises on a wall of worries"..... Yes it did this time too. There will always be something to worry about. These days I’m worry about growth stocks and overvalued stocks. Have you noticed some stocks are trading at PE ratio over 100. So, I kept only attractive stocks with strong balance sheets in my portfolio. When I was adding a small company in my portfolio recently, I made my mind that stock market is going to close for next 5 years and made sure its ROE and cash flow is going to go up. The time may be very good for value stocks and early-stage growth stocks with attractive valuation. I went one step further and looking for cash rich and good balance sheets. Any way markets are due for major correction. Remember every bubble ended up with burst.

[nztx]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/nz-sharemarket-reaches-29-month-high

17.7.24:

NZ sharemarket reaches 29-month high

More Media AI gone astray .. or not ? ;)

[Daytr]

Quotes are good …but can get you into trouble

Like in a past life I had to do a presentation to our Australian directors about why NZ wasn’t performing as it should …like now the market had collapsed ….. really cool presentation title ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ …..Aussies have no sense of humour and are so precious it didn’t go down well and I got told off and not try to be clever in future

Took that as a compliment

That's hilarious.
Yeah I found our sense of humour doesn't always translate across the ditch.

[Daytr]

Then there is this quote ..."sharemarket rises on a wall of worries".....

Up the stairs and down the escalator.

Or my favorite, straight out of NYC.
When the taxi drivers start a yellin, it's time to get sellin!

[ynot]

That's hilarious.
Yeah I found our sense of humour doesn't always translate across the ditch.

My experience with some ausi's at least, is they do not particularly like us.

[Daytr]

My experience with some ausi's at least, is they do not particularly like us.

Definitely came across some of that as well.
Small minded with chips on their shoulders.
Most Aussies were good, and the woman don't seem to have the same issues.

In fact I heard from numerous Aussie women that they found Aussie men sexist and rude etc.
But I generalize.

[winner69]

That's hilarious.
Yeah I found our sense of humour doesn't always translate across the ditch.

In several reports/presentations to Oz management after the CHCh quakes I used the phrase “Christchurch is in ruins. Christchurch is munted”

Got told off and directed not to use ‘munted’ lol

Precious lot

[ynot]

Definitely came across some of that as well.
Small minded with chips on their shoulders.
Most Aussies were good, and the woman don't seem to have the same issues.

In fact I heard from numerous Aussie women that they found Aussie men sexist and rude etc.
But I generalize.

On occasion I believed I was relating ok to some Ausi workmates until we disagreed on something, then I was made aware of how the really viewed me.

[Valuegrowth]

Stocks are overvalued. Sooner than later roatation and sell-off can take place.Finally much needed corection has begun in top global indexes. It seems not the time to buy the dip. All future events have priced into the market as well. Bear market is on the way.

[Jaa]

I see NVIDIA reached another lower high this week.

I think Bull is right, US stock indices will drift lower with lower interest rates.

This could mask what might actually happen. Big tech driving an S&P index decline while the rest of the market recovers?

Now a lower low for NVIDIA while the Russell 2000 soars.

Just a lazy 23.5% outperformance in a month.
15189

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmknz-10y?countrycode=bx&mod=mw_quote_recentlyviewed

NZ10Y on the move DOWN ....made recent low and close to 52 week low ...this will keep NZX50 buoyant ....

[nztx]

Now a lower low for NVIDIA while the Russell 2000 soars.

Just a lazy 23.5% outperformance in a month.
15189



I see a report where Donald Trumpet reportedly rattled some of the Tech/Chips sector .. have to expect some volatility when the sides of the Dumpster start being given a kicking ;)

[Valuegrowth]

Now a lower low for NVIDIA while the Russell 2000 soars.

Just a lazy 23.5% outperformance in a month.
15189

If the tech sector crash SNAS will go up massively.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNAS.AX/ (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNAS.AX/)

Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq 100 Hedge Fund (SNAS.AX)

1.3800+0.0600(+4.5455%)

Volume: 1,415,826
Avg. Volume:917,139

[Valuegrowth]

Put option players may have an opportunity now. In every situation there are opportunities.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/quotes/option-chain

Call and put options are quoted in a table called a chain sheet. The chain sheet shows the price, volume and open interest for each option strike price and expiration month.

Most Viewed in Option Chain



Symbol
Company Name


NDX (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/ndx/option-chain)
Nasdaq 100 Index Options (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/ndx/option-chain)


TSLA (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/TSLA/option-chain)
Tesla, Inc. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/option-chain)


AMZN (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amzn/option-chain)
Amazon.com, Inc. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amzn/option-chain)


AAPL (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/AAPL/option-chain)
Apple Inc. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/AAPL/option-chain)


NFLX (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nflx/option-chain)
Netflix Inc. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nflx/option-chain)


NVDA (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/option-chain)
NVIDIA Corporation (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/option-chain)


MSFT (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/MSFT/option-chain)
Microsoft Corporation (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/MSFT/option-chain)


JD (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/JD/option-chain)
JD.com, Inc. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/jd/option-chain)


CSCO (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/CSCO/option-chain)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/CSCO/option-chain)


META (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/option-chain)
Meta, Inc. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/option-chain)

[Baa_Baa]

If the tech sector crash SNAS will go up massively.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNAS.AX/ (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SNAS.AX/)

Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq 100 Hedge Fund (SNAS.AX)

1.3800+0.0600(+4.5455%)

Volume: 1,415,826
Avg. Volume:917,139

If it doesn't crash, your money will be f*cked very quickly in this ultra leveraged PUT. Don't take a position in this unless you've hedged against the opposite outcome, being an ultra leveraged CALL. Whichever side works out, close the loser ASAP and run with winner. Basically a Bear Put Spread.

Too risky for most 'investors' taking these bets, let alone a one-sided bet.

[Valuegrowth]

If it doesn't crash, your money will be f*cked very quickly in this ultra leveraged PUT. Don't take a position in this unless you've hedged against the opposite outcome, being an ultra leveraged CALL. Whichever side works out, close the loser ASAP and run with winner. Basically a Bear Put Spread.

Too risky for most 'investors' taking these bets, let alone a one-sided bet.
Thanks. I agree. First time I made use of few new things in markets. Unless those days I act fast. For example, when I saw danger signals, I sold 2 listed NZ companies very fast. One has dropped nearly 70% within the short period. Selling has become part of my investment journey. I have a trading plan and investment plan along with portfolio rebalancing. I know wealth can evaporate suddenly If they go against me.

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-shares-at-a-turning-point-what-to-expect-from-this-reporting-season-stock-takes/ZO4AD63ZUFFNNJQEYYU4LJXRHE/

[winner69]

WSJ says ‘Technology stocks sold off again on Thursday. This time though it wasn’t clear what investors might be rotating into, except perhaps cash.’

[causecelebre]

Broad US sell off overnight. Dow and Russel 2000 down, 1.29% and 1.9% respectively. Will be interesting to see how earnings season effects the sell off. Again, dropping rates is the sign of a slowing economy and earnings may reflect that

[bull....]

Broad US sell off overnight. Dow and Russel 2000 down, 1.29% and 1.9% respectively. Will be interesting to see how earnings season effects the sell off. Again, dropping rates is the sign of a slowing economy and earnings may reflect that

AI and Robotic's my acelerate earnings in yrs ahead.

[Valuegrowth]

WSJ says ‘Technology stocks sold off again on Thursday. This time though it wasn’t clear what investors might be rotating into, except perhaps cash.’ I rotated into my existing top holding with rising ROE, cash flow, a commodity producer, cash for emergency and paying off
some morgage. Winners are in. Losers are out. Always I will have something to buy and sell. Remember I said if market goes up or down, interest rates go up and down it's good for me.

Intelligent investors are waiting patiently to buy quality stocks at a fair price. Overvalued market look fragile. Still we haven't seen big sell-off. In the short term I'am bearish & in the long run bullish.

[causecelebre]

AI and Robotic's my acelerate earnings in yrs ahead.

I agree. There will be some form of Wrights Law in human production. As AI and robotics improve and become more ubiquitous so will the productivity and the cost of labour making companies more efficient and profitable. I also see in the shorter-medium term a pull back in spending on not only hardware but also cap ex on in-house AI experimentation. Companies currently want to make speculative investment in POCing initiatives for both marketing and efficiencies sake but will sooner rather than later pull the pin on costs and await proven enterprise solutions. I'm bullish on the tech longer term

[Valuegrowth]

WSJ says ‘Technology stocks sold off again on Thursday. This time though it wasn’t clear what investors might be rotating into, except perhaps cash.’
The teck sector can hit hard if they impose export ban on chips.

[Valuegrowth]

IMF says get used to high Interest rates.

[bull....]

trump convention was good

[Valuegrowth]

It looks like immigration control is on the cards in countries like USA, UK, Australia and Canada to control high cost of householding expenses.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/trudeaus-out-of-control-immigration-hits-canada-hard

Trudeau says we're bringing in more people than we can absorb in the middle of a housing crisis and a health system under strain.

[troyvdh]

bull."trump convention was good"

How so....If you are intimating that this virtually illiterate compulsive lying profoundly disingenuous multiple bankrupt serial sexual predator narcissist reptile made any sense...please confirm.Grandiose delusional rabid conspiracy theorist racist dumb stupid person ...please confirm.

Oops ...I forgot to mention how he denigrated those Americans who had fallen in battle as saying they were "losers and suckers".

As quoted on FOX news plus others.

Carry on bull.

bull ...are flying back from that nutters convention ? A few issues perhaps with flights coming home ?.

Sorry ..how old are you.

[Valuegrowth]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-100-live-stocks-microsoft-it-outage-airlines-banks-wall-street-081731774.html

[Valuegrowth]

For now, it seems cooper prices have peaked. Mr copper is following stocks. China’s slowdown is also putting copper prices down. Assets price may drop like hot potatoes if things get worse.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/COPPER/

Copper chart

[Daytr]

For now, it seems cooper prices have peaked. Mr copper is following stocks. China’s slowdown is also putting copper prices down. Assets price may drop like hot potatoes if things get worse.

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/COPPER/

Copper chart

Yes pretty big fall.
Warehouses are full as China has pulled back from buying, but that can't last.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes pretty big fall.
Warehouses are full as China has pulled back from buying, but that can't last.

You’re right. Any way copper also has volatility. Copper priced dropped heavily from 1982-1986. Then in 1991-2002. Huge uptrend began in 2003. Stright up until 2006. From there some volatility until 2008 before the huge fall until beginning of 2009.Rally began again until 2011 and then dropped until 2016 before the volatility until 2020. From there another rally until 2022 hitting all time high. New all time high hit in 2024. From here there is a chance to move copper prices lower again. It seems copper sell-off is also not far away. Copper value investors are going to get another great opportunity.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

Copper futures fell past $4.3 per pound in July, the lowest in three months, as pessimism over industrial demand in top consumer China continued to weigh on base metal prices. Remarks from President Xi Jinping following the conclusion of the CCP’s Third Plenum refrained from signaling specific stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption in the near term, exacerbating concerns of poor factory demand in the world’s top manufacturing sector and copper consumer. The developments followed concerning factory activity data, with the domestically-focused NBS manufacturing PMI contracting for a second month in June, driving smelters and broader factories to rely on foreign demand for growth, as signaled by the 187% annual surge in copper exports in the period. Consequently, threats of trade barriers from the US and Europe magnified the bearish momentum. In the meantime, copper inventories remained high in Chinese warehouses, driving the Yangshan premium to remain near the 0 threshold.

[troyvdh]

bull....Where are you...

[moka]

It looks like immigration control is on the cards in countries like USA, UK, Australia and Canada to control high cost of householding expenses.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/trudeaus-out-of-control-immigration-hits-canada-hard

Trudeau says we're bringing in more people than we can absorb in the middle of a housing crisis and a health system under strain. The article also says “According to Statistics Canada, we are bringing in people faster than our ability to create jobs. Which is odd because part of the reason we are told we need such high immigration numbers is to fill jobs that Canadians won’t take.

According to the latest jobs report from Statistics Canada, we added 1.1 million people to the working-age population of 15 years of age and older. We added 652,000 people to the labour force, but only 402,000 jobs, meaning we added 250,000 people to the unemployment line.

Already, immigration consultants have been taking to social media to explain how people can bring their brothers, sisters or other family members to Canada by claiming they are coming to look after the kids.”

[jonu]

The article also says “According to Statistics Canada, we are bringing in people faster than our ability to create jobs. Which is odd because part of the reason we are told we need such high immigration numbers is to fill jobs that Canadians won’t take.

According to the latest jobs report from Statistics Canada, we added 1.1 million people to the working-age population of 15 years of age and older. We added 652,000 people to the labour force, but only 402,000 jobs, meaning we added 250,000 people to the unemployment line.

Already, immigration consultants have been taking to social media to explain how people can bring their brothers, sisters or other family members to Canada by claiming they are coming to look after the kids.”

Trudeau is just trying to pivot because he is on the way out. He is as broadly loathed in Canada as Ardern was here. Canada woke up with the truckie protest when Trudeau was fully exposed as an authoritarian prick. (Sound familiar?). Canada will suffer the damage inflicted for years to come, just as NZ is following Ardern. Birds of a feather.

[bull....]

bull."trump convention was good"

How so....If you are intimating that this virtually illiterate compulsive lying profoundly disingenuous multiple bankrupt serial sexual predator narcissist reptile made any sense...please confirm.Grandiose delusional rabid conspiracy theorist racist dumb stupid person ...please confirm.

Oops ...I forgot to mention how he denigrated those Americans who had fallen in battle as saying they were "losers and suckers".

As quoted on FOX news plus others.

Carry on bull.

bull ...are flying back from that nutters convention ? A few issues perhaps with flights coming home ?.

Sorry ..how old are you.

sorry took so long.
obviously your not a trump supporter , but listening to his speech and hearing how he was touched by god and survived nearly brought a tear to my eye as many others had tears as well. I imagine the atmoshere was phrophetic and has the man changed guess time will tell as unity was emphasised. anyway this young fellow needs to get back to making some morning tea money. nothing like a coffee and some choc and buscuits mid morning.
I would be interested to hear how you think kamila will save the democrats

[Panda-NZ-]

sorry took so long.
obviously your not a trump supporter , but listening to his speech and hearing how he was touched by god and survived nearly brought a tear to my eye as many others had tears as well. I imagine the atmoshere was phrophetic and has the man changed guess time will tell as unity was emphasised. anyway this young fellow needs to get back to making some morning tea money. nothing like a coffee and some choc and buscuits mid morning.
I would be interested to hear how you think kamila will save the democrats

What convention? what assasination? the world has moved on. It's like reading through ancient roman history. :p

[winner69]

Headline says NZ dollar at 11-week low

I see NZDGBP is .4621 at moment …..multi year low from quick look at chart

Just highlights how munted the NZ economy is ….if the Brit’s are doing better than us.

[Panda-NZ-]

Takeovers may be a good thing if we get some competent people in.

Fonterra under NZ Inc for instance... our best and brightest... lets export only milk powder and get rid of all that stuff we can sell for a premium.

Mind you Theo, Nick with the glasses (WHS) no good either.

[Toddy]

Cancelled my NZ Business Desk subscription today.

Why.
I am already subscribed to NZ Herald premium. The good articles normally end up in the Herald.
I find the majority of articles really generic.
The majority of my investments are now non NZX.

I sort of feel like a bit of an idiot for signing up last year.

Anyway, lesson learned.

Does anyone pay for the Cnbc investment site? I. E the investor articles.

[troyvdh]

OK.
I am on a different planet.
My final comments (for a while).
Trump is nationalist.Nationalism was a significant factor in WW1 and WW2 plus other wars.Hence League of Nations and the United Nations.
Many historians have noted how similar Trumps speechs replicate Hitlers.
Most if not all world leaders openly mock him.
Any comments he makes regarding God have to be taken dubiously.
He openly adores Xi and Putin.
He has in the past stated that publications as NYT and the WP should be shut down.
He is a conspiracy theorist.
Whilst in office he preferred diagrams rather written material.
He would have to be considered the most divisive president in history.
Him in office would be considerably negative to NZ inc.

[jonu]

My replies/thoughts in red


OK.
I am on a different planet. Possibly
My final comments (for a while).
Trump is nationalist. As opposed to a Socialist...I guess so Nationalism was a significant factor in WW1 and WW2 plus other wars.Hence League of Nations and the United Nations. Simplistic view. It ignores the colonial ambitions of in particular Germany and Japan leading into ww1 The Nationalism leading to ww2 a sympton of ww1 outcome
Many historians have noted how similar Trumps speechs replicate Hitlers. Any good speech writer does the same
Most if not all world leaders openly mock him. Not when they are dealing with him
Any comments he makes regarding God have to be taken dubiously. Agreed
He openly adores Xi and Putin. No he doesn't. He does acknowledge their strong points or successes.
He has in the past stated that publications as NYT and the WP should be shut down. With good reason when you take into account the lies they spread about him as to being a Russian asset, how they covered up the Hunter Biden laptop, and how they ran cover over Biden's health issues.
He is a conspiracy theorist. Possibly. But some have been proven right. Cases in point above in reference to the media.
Whilst in office he preferred diagrams rather written material. Didn't know that, but seems a smart way to digest a lot of information
He would have to be considered the most divisive president in history. Possibly. Abe Lincoln might be close behind. Good company.
Him in office would be considerably negative to NZ inc. How so?

[Daytr]

Alright folks this is a markets thread.
Join the slanging match on the political threads if you want to debate the merits of various politicians.

[ValueNZ]

“In the seventy five years I’ve been investing if I’d reacted to events I’d be out of the market. I never really want to be out of the market. It’s not a question of being out of the market, it’s a question of owning businesses.


If I wanted to own farms, I wouldn’t keep buying and selling them based on some election result. I’d find the best place to own them and get the best tenants I could and that sort of thing. I look at businesses the same way.”


- Warren Buffett

[alokdhir]

“In the seventy five years I’ve been investing if I’d reacted to events I’d be out of the market. I never really want to be out of the market. It’s not a question of being out of the market, it’s a question of owning businesses.


If I wanted to own farms, I wouldn’t keep buying and selling them based on some election result. I’d find the best place to own them and get the best tenants I could and that sort of thing. I look at businesses the same way.”


- Warren Buffett

Is he not happy with Bank of America's business anymore? ...maybe they changing their business model enough to change LT plans

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/warren-buffetts-berkshire-trims-bank-of-america-stake-for-the-first-time-since-2019-after-strong-rally.html#:~:text=Warren%20Buffett's%20conglomera te%20sold,%2443.56%2C%20a%20regulatory%20filing%20 showed.??

[moka]

Trump is nationalist.Nationalism was a significant factor in WW1 and WW2 plus other wars.

Avi Shlaim an Israeli-British historian says nationalism is very negative and it's a very divisive and destructive force.

Patriotism is different. Patriotism is love of your country but for nationalism you need an enemy and as Marilyn Munroe wrote in her scrap book the trouble with nationalism is that it stops us thinking. Nationalism stops us relating to one another as human beings.

Shlaim argues that nationalism has led to increased antagonism between Jews and Arabs in Israel, especially as Israel has moved politically rightward in recent decades.

[Daytr]

“In the seventy five years I’ve been investing if I’d reacted to events I’d be out of the market. I never really want to be out of the market. It’s not a question of being out of the market, it’s a question of owning businesses.


If I wanted to own farms, I wouldn’t keep buying and selling them based on some election result. I’d find the best place to own them and get the best tenants I could and that sort of thing. I look at businesses the same way.”


- Warren Buffett

And he recently sold a large parcel of Apple and is sitting on a huge amount of cash. In the linked video below he initially talks about ignoring the macro and then spends a lot of time talking about the macro I.e taxes in forming his decision to sell.

https://youtu.be/7OG2LBjmNQM?feature=shared

[Jaa]

Does anyone pay for the Cnbc investment site? I. E the investor articles.

The Marketwatch / Barrons / WSJ bundle for $1 a week for a year looks more tempting.

Lots of insight and fun things to read like:
Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom — and 22 other stocks most likely to crash (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-super-micro-broadcom-and-22-other-stocks-most-likely-to-crash-737a3b40)

[Toddy]

The Marketwatch / Barrons / WSJ bundle for $1 a week for a year looks more tempting.

Lots of insight and fun things to read like:
Nvidia, Super Micro, Broadcom — and 22 other stocks most likely to crash (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-super-micro-broadcom-and-22-other-stocks-most-likely-to-crash-737a3b40)

Thanks, will take a look.

[alokdhir]

I am sure u like all Gurus understand rates work with lag thats why took long to work and will take long to do otherwise too ...if he delays or does what u suggesting then all will go downhill faster then we all can imagine ...Nov is right at present to actually pivot and July meeting is best to start sounding markets about his intentions ...but how it will happen only God knows ...U sure are in throw the baby with water camp ...who wants one more hike ...lol

Good side effects of July RBNZ meeting showing all over ...SR and his cronies used to make fun of future rates expectation predictions ...but nothing succeeds like success ....though he gave good advise that when u know something then must know how to cash it also ....monetise your knowledge ...no need try to master micro ...macro is easier to manage and can be equally rewarding :t_up:

[causecelebre]

Banks are rapidly dropping rates. Red bank for the second time in as many weeks. They had better be careful not to front run the OCR cuts and get out over their ski's. The RBNZ will not want to make any cuts.

[Daytr]

A good message for us all.


In 1896, Thomas Edison, the great inventor of the electric bulb, was working on a car design when he learned that a young man in his company had created an experimental car. Edison met this young man, Henry Ford, at a company party in New York and was thoroughly impressed by his gasoline-powered car idea. Edison, who had been considering electricity as a power source, enthusiastically encouraged Ford, saying, "Young man, that's the thing! You have it! I think you are on to something! I encourage you to continue your pursuits!"
Encouraged by the respected inventor, Henry Ford continued his work, eventually inventing a car that made him wealthy.
On December 9, 1914, Edison's laboratory and factory were destroyed by fire. At 67 years old, the damage was too extensive for insurance to cover. Before the ashes were cold, Henry Ford handed Edison a check for $750,000 with a note saying Edison could have more if needed.
In 1916, Ford relocated his home next to Edison's. When Edison was later confined to a wheelchair, Ford also got a wheelchair so they could race each other.
Thomas Edison made Henry Ford believe in himself, creating a friendship for life.
LESSON:
Don't ever be jealous of others' success. If you can't win a race, help the person in front of you break the record. Your candle doesn't lose its light by lighting another. Let us follow this example of supporting and uplifting each other!

[alokdhir]

A good message for us all.


In 1896, Thomas Edison, the great inventor of the electric bulb, was working on a car design when he learned that a young man in his company had created an experimental car. Edison met this young man, Henry Ford, at a company party in New York and was thoroughly impressed by his gasoline-powered car idea. Edison, who had been considering electricity as a power source, enthusiastically encouraged Ford, saying, "Young man, that's the thing! You have it! I think you are on to something! I encourage you to continue your pursuits!"
Encouraged by the respected inventor, Henry Ford continued his work, eventually inventing a car that made him wealthy.
On December 9, 1914, Edison's laboratory and factory were destroyed by fire. At 67 years old, the damage was too extensive for insurance to cover. Before the ashes were cold, Henry Ford handed Edison a check for $750,000 with a note saying Edison could have more if needed.
In 1916, Ford relocated his home next to Edison's. When Edison was later confined to a wheelchair, Ford also got a wheelchair so they could race each other.
Thomas Edison made Henry Ford believe in himself, creating a friendship for life.
LESSON:
Don't ever be jealous of others' success. If you can't win a race, help the person in front of you break the record. Your candle doesn't lose its light by lighting another. Let us follow this example of supporting and uplifting each other!

Story is great ...but I have been told a different story about Thomas Alva Edison and what he did to poor Tesla ...the real genius ...who went almost mad ...maybe fully ...as he fell in love with a pigeon towards his end ...

"Thomas Edison is claimed to have stolen Nikola Tesla's ideas. However, these claims have been refuted, and it has become difficult to see how Edison can be blamed for stealing Tesla's ideas. Edison can only be blamed for refusing to share a bonus that they had agreed on if he improved the DC generation plants. "

Many think Edison was cruel to Tesla and was the reason for his mental breakdown !

[bull....]

mag 7 etf selling could be wild :scared: i tried the new meta ai yest ... crap lol i asked it some questions gave wrong answer and when i asked if it guessed its answer was ... you caught me out lol

[alokdhir]

mag 7 etf selling could be wild :scared: i tried the new meta ai yest ... crap lol i asked it some questions gave wrong answer and when i asked if it guessed its answer was ... you caught me out lol

Reasons are being formed for the elusive REAL pull back ...I will be waiting for USG to touch $ 10 on NZX ...that will be wonderful LT entry for me !!

[bull....]

Xero says monthly small business sales fell by the most in June since May 2020 during the pandemic lockdown

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/128831/xero-says-monthly-small-business-sales-fell-most-june-may-2020-during-pandemic

[Daytr]

mag 7 etf selling could be wild :scared: i tried the new meta ai yest ... crap lol i asked it some questions gave wrong answer and when i asked if it guessed its answer was ... you caught me out lol

I was close to putting in a short on Tesla a few days ago! Doh.

I bet shareholders are regretting paying out Musk's $56Bln bonus now. What a friggin joke.

Tesla out of all the M7s is probably the least tech concentrated stock in the set, as they rely on selling 'things' with tech, quite big expensive things, whereas most of the others are selling services or a mixture. NVDA is probably in the middle as it's selling small high value things but to all the other M7s etc.

I do wonder how Musk's support of Trump will impact Tesla as well, many Dems supporters seem to be boycotting Tesla products.

[bull....]

I was close to putting in a short on Tesla a few days ago! Doh.



yep can relate to that on so many trades i have comtemplated on.

[causecelebre]

I was close to putting in a short on Tesla a few days ago! Doh.

I bet shareholders are regretting paying out Musk's $56Bln bonus now. What a friggin joke.



While its notionally a lot of money, at the time the deal was for every $50b in capitalisation Musk gets comp of 1% stock. The company hit all its milestones and reached $650b hence his $56b in comp. At the time his deal was almost literally laughed at by the wider business community, media and most importantly the voting shareholders - none of which thought this was remotely possible - so they voted YES. Don't forget shareholders got rich on this deal. Its the class action lawyers that want to line their pockets now. We don't complain if other at risk comp targets are met for other CEO's why should it make a difference for Musk - regardless of whether you think his deal was supine. He is without doubt the best entrepreneur of our generation and arguable all generations. Don't get me wrong i'm not a Musk fan boy but I believe if you make a deal have the integrity to suck it up

[moka]

Trump is nationalist.Nationalism was a significant factor in WW1 and WW2 plus other wars.
Nietzsche was vocally opposed to nationalism, which he viewed as a form of collective identity that stifled individual greatness and creativity. He expressed disdain for the idea of a unified national identity, famously stating, “Deutschland, Deutschland über alles, that is the end of German philosophy”. This indicates his belief that nationalism undermined philosophical inquiry and individual thought. Nietzsche's philosophy emphasized the importance of the individual and the dangers of herd mentality, which nationalism often promotes. He criticized the state and its role in promoting a nationalist agenda, seeing it as a threat to personal freedom and intellectual independence.

Critics argue that nationalism is primarily an emotional and irrational phenomenon, rooted in an evolved tribalism. This perspective suggests that nationalism can lead to an "us versus them" mentality, making it difficult for individuals to extend empathy beyond their national group. The emotional ties associated with nationalism may encourage conformity and blind loyalty, which can resemble "sheep-like" behavior, particularly in extreme cases where dissenting views are marginalized.

[moka]

A good message for us all.


In 1896, Thomas Edison, the great inventor of the electric bulb, was working on a car design when he learned that a young man in his company had created an experimental car. Edison met this young man, Henry Ford, at a company party in New York and was thoroughly impressed by his gasoline-powered car idea. Edison, who had been considering electricity as a power source, enthusiastically encouraged Ford, saying, "Young man, that's the thing! You have it! I think you are on to something! I encourage you to continue your pursuits!"
Encouraged by the respected inventor, Henry Ford continued his work, eventually inventing a car that made him wealthy.
On December 9, 1914, Edison's laboratory and factory were destroyed by fire. At 67 years old, the damage was too extensive for insurance to cover. Before the ashes were cold, Henry Ford handed Edison a check for $750,000 with a note saying Edison could have more if needed.
In 1916, Ford relocated his home next to Edison's. When Edison was later confined to a wheelchair, Ford also got a wheelchair so they could race each other.
Thomas Edison made Henry Ford believe in himself, creating a friendship for life.
LESSON:
Don't ever be jealous of others' success. If you can't win a race, help the person in front of you break the record. Your candle doesn't lose its light by lighting another. Let us follow this example of supporting and uplifting each other! Edison did not invent the light bulb, most of his success came from his ability to market it. But we tend to use inventor rather than innovator, which is an example of the power of storytelling, which shapes our understanding of the world and influences our beliefs.

Thomas Edison is often credited with the invention of the light bulb, but he did not actually invent it. Instead, he played a crucial role in developing the first commercially practical incandescent light bulb. Prior to Edison's work, various inventors had already experimented with electric light, including Joseph Swan, who patented an early version in the UK in 1878 using carbonized paper filaments.

Edison's success was not solely due to his invention but also to his ability to perfect existing ideas and make them commercially viable. He established the Edison Electric Light Company and was instrumental in creating the infrastructure for electric lighting, which helped to popularize the use of electric light bulbs in homes and businesses.

Henry Ford was also an innovator who possessed a clear vision for the future of transportation and was able to articulate this vision effectively to investors and the public. His ability to persuade others to support his ideas was crucial in the establishment of the Ford Motor Company in 1903, which was built on the foundation of his earlier, less successful ventures.

[moka]

Coming shortly no more Black Mondays because you will be happy when you own nothing.

With Arvida and possibly The Warehouse moving from being publicly listed companies into the hands of private equity, in other words more privatization, we are moving to a future where "You will own nothing and be happy." A future where people would not own property but instead rent what they need, indicating a shift towards a more communal and sustainable economic model according to the World Economic Forum.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) presents several potential benefits of a future where individuals own nothing, primarily through the lens of sustainability and economic efficiency.

Access Over Ownership: The shift towards renting and leasing rather than owning can make resources more accessible. This model allows individuals to use what they need without the financial burden of ownership, potentially leading to a more equitable distribution of resources.

According to WEF you will be happier because you will have an emphasis on experiences over possessions.

Reduced Material Burden: The idea promotes a lifestyle where individuals focus less on accumulating material possessions and more on experiences. This shift could lead to greater satisfaction derived from relationships and activities rather than ownership of goods, potentially enhancing overall happiness.

Access to Resources: By prioritizing access over ownership, individuals might benefit from shared resources, reducing the stress and financial burden associated with maintaining and repairing personal possessions. This could lead to a more carefree lifestyle, contributing to happiness. (Shared resources = your neighbour will borrow your tools and return them munted - been there, done that)

Community and Collaboration

Strengthened Social Bonds: Sharing resources and communal living arrangements (ten people living in a three-bedroom house) may foster stronger community ties. Increased interaction and collaboration with others can enhance feelings of belonging and support, which are crucial for emotional well-being.

Collective Responsibility: A shared economy could encourage a sense of collective responsibility and purpose, as individuals work together to manage and utilize communal resources effectively, potentially leading to greater fulfillment.

Sustainability and Future Orientation

Alignment with Values: For many, living in a way that reduces environmental impact aligns with personal values of sustainability and social responsibility. This alignment can create a sense of purpose and happiness derived from contributing to a greater good.

[Aaron]

Coming shortly no more Black Mondays because you will be happy when you own nothing.

A future where people would not own property but instead rent what they need, indicating a shift towards a more communal and sustainable economic model according to the World Economic Forum.

[FONT=&]The World Economic Forum (WEF) presents several potential benefits of a future where individuals own nothing, primarily through the lens of sustainability and economic efficiency.


Moka if you can get back to the WEF for me, tell them I am happy to own and control everything and rent it back to them. But only because I am a selfless individual willing to make the sacrifice to make the world a better place.

[Miway]

Moka if you can get back to the WEF for me, tell them I am happy to own and control everything and rent it back to them. But only because I am a selfless individual willing to make the sacrifice to make the world a better place.

Aaron I'm happy to second your reply

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mark-lister-rate-cuts-are-coming-heres-what-investors-should-do/TX5NGBS6OVG3RBJMNETXMOL3QI/

[kiora]

https://craigsip.com/news/rate-cuts-are-coming-what-should-investors-do

[jonu]

Coming shortly no more Black Mondays because you will be happy when you own nothing.

With Arvida and possibly The Warehouse moving from being publicly listed companies into the hands of private equity, in other words more privatization, we are moving to a future where "You will own nothing and be happy." A future where people would not own property but instead rent what they need, indicating a shift towards a more communal and sustainable economic model according to the World Economic Forum.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) presents several potential benefits of a future where individuals own nothing, primarily through the lens of sustainability and economic efficiency.

Access Over Ownership: The shift towards renting and leasing rather than owning can make resources more accessible. This model allows individuals to use what they need without the financial burden of ownership, potentially leading to a more equitable distribution of resources.

According to WEF you will be happier because you will have an emphasis on experiences over possessions.

Reduced Material Burden: The idea promotes a lifestyle where individuals focus less on accumulating material possessions and more on experiences. This shift could lead to greater satisfaction derived from relationships and activities rather than ownership of goods, potentially enhancing overall happiness.

Access to Resources: By prioritizing access over ownership, individuals might benefit from shared resources, reducing the stress and financial burden associated with maintaining and repairing personal possessions. This could lead to a more carefree lifestyle, contributing to happiness. (Shared resources = your neighbour will borrow your tools and return them munted - been there, done that)

Community and Collaboration

Strengthened Social Bonds: Sharing resources and communal living arrangements (ten people living in a three-bedroom house) may foster stronger community ties. Increased interaction and collaboration with others can enhance feelings of belonging and support, which are crucial for emotional well-being.

Collective Responsibility: A shared economy could encourage a sense of collective responsibility and purpose, as individuals work together to manage and utilize communal resources effectively, potentially leading to greater fulfillment.

Sustainability and Future Orientation

Alignment with Values: For many, living in a way that reduces environmental impact aligns with personal values of sustainability and social responsibility. This alignment can create a sense of purpose and happiness derived from contributing to a greater good.

That WEF are such a caring bunch aren't they? Funny how they aren't specific as to just who will own everything. How is what they describe different to Serfdom? But Klaus and Larry Fink know what's best for everyone. No air travel for the serfs. Live in shoebox apartments in "walkable" cities, so no cars either. But the elites will still have their private jets and private islands and whatever else they want to spend your money on.

[ynot]

That WEF are such a caring bunch aren't they? Funny how they aren't specific as to just who will own everything. How is what they describe different to Serfdom? But Klaus and Larry Fink know what's best for everyone. No air travel for the serfs. Live in shoebox apartments in "walkable" cities, so no cars either. But the elites will still have their private jets and private islands and whatever else they want to spend your money on.

Just confirms ones confidence in fellow man to look out for everyone's best interest. We are indeed fortunate to be in their presence.

[winner69]

Love headlines like this (NBR)

Euphoria in bank economists predicting inflation-related OCR drop

No science to their predictions. I’d say just guesses and we know happens to guesses sometime

And euphoria …..those bank guys are beyond recognising it

[bull....]

fed week so looking for indications of int rate drop upcoming. make RBNZ more comfortable if all good.

[winner69]

Luxon says rates a coming down sooner than later

They must be then

[alokdhir]

Luxon says rates a coming down sooner than later

They must be then

Looks like he has already done some arm twisting ...RBNZ sounded very bullied in last statement ...lol

[winner69]

Looks like he has already done some arm twisting ...RBNZ sounded very bullied in last statement ...lol

Problem is Luxon is almost as useless as Adrian …..country going to the pot pretty fast

[Rawz]

Problem is Luxon is almost as useless as Adrian …..country going to the pot pretty fast

wash your mouth out with soap lol

Luxon is doing his best to save the country from labours blunders

[Bjauck]

wash your mouth out with soap lol

Luxon is doing his best to save the country from labours blundersThe country is like a drunken sailor swaying from left to right, but still on the road to stagnation. Radical reform unopened in the bin.

[troyvdh]

Dear B I totally agree with you.

In an ideal world ...Main political entities would agree to say a 10-20 plan in regards to health and education and not make it a political game.

AND stick to it.

Infrastructure...defence ....etc.

[causecelebre]

Agree, this country has some serious structural issues not least of which is our tax system from which the others are funded. I just can't see any party making the requisite reforms. A four year term may help but will is more imperative. Anyhoo, back to black mondays....

[troyvdh]

Inappropriate.was my post.

[moka]

Struggle continues for Wellington businesses

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/523555/struggle-continues-for-wellington-businesses
(https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/523555/struggle-continues-for-wellington-businesses)
Sarah Chambers, owner of Wellington's Little Makos Swim School, might not normally think of her business as having anything to do with the government - but she has felt the impact of public sector job cuts.
She has about 100 fewer children enrolled this year compared to last winter, and has had emails from people telling her that they are holding off due to job insecurity.

There have also been more subtle signs that people might be affected.
"A lot of people use their work email addresses to sort stuff for their kids. It's noticeable even if they haven't told me that they've gone from a .govt email address to a gmail. People who've emailed for four or five years from a .govt one… you can read between the lines without them saying."
Some families had shifted to Australia, she said, because employment options were limited.

Arcus said the impact of government spending cuts - which have led to the loss of more than 6000 jobs according to RNZ's calculations, and a reduction in government spending with other businesses, including Wellington professional services firms in particular - had been very broad-brush.
“Hospitality and retail are talking about a 30 percent drop in revenue. There's definitely a sense of a stall."

"It's a hell of a lot worse than in places like Auckland," independent economist Shamubeel Eaqub said. "In Auckland it's a private sector recession. In Wellington, it's a private and public sector recession."

Corelogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said it was hard to believe that the cuts would have no impact at all on the property market.

[bull....]

savage reaction to microsoft results. :scared: big week still to go for mag7

anyway

Who are NZ's 1 percent, and how do you get there?


Stats NZ said in 2021 the top 1 percent of New Zealand households had net wealth - assets minus debts - of at least $7.59 million. That compares to median net worth for all households of $397,000
If you want to get rich, you'd better start early - and potentially have a bit of luck on your side
Here's the rundown on what it takes to be among the wealthiest people in New Zealand now, and how you might hope to get there.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/523665/who-are-nz-s-1-percent-and-how-do-you-get-there

[Bjauck]

savage reaction to microsoft results. :scared: big week still to go for mag7

anyway

Who are NZ's 1 percent, and how do you get there?


Stats NZ said in 2021 the top 1 percent of New Zealand households had net wealth - assets minus debts - of at least $7.59 million. That compares to median net worth for all households of $397,000
If you want to get rich, you'd better start early - and potentially have a bit of luck on your side
Here's the rundown on what it takes to be among the wealthiest people in New Zealand now, and how you might hope to get there.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/523665/who-are-nz-s-1-percent-and-how-do-you-get-there



I always think those wealth stats would be much more useful if they are broken down into age groups. A household headed by a 25 year old is much less likely to be in the top 1% than a household headed by a 65 year old, after a lifetime of being on an upward ladder of NZ real estate ownership.

People in their middle-age and onwards, are also more likely to benefit from inheriting family wealth. Although NZ also has trust-fund babies.

[bull....]

I always think those wealth stats would be much more useful if they are broken down into age groups. A household headed by a 25 year old is much less likely to be in the top 1% than a household headed by a 65 year old, after a lifetime of being on an upward ladder of NZ real estate ownership.

People in their middle-age and onwards, are also more likely to benefit from inheriting family wealth. Although NZ also has trust-fund babies.

i agree , a lot of middle age people will inherit a lot of property wealth over the next 10 - 20 yrs and most will probably lose it.

[winner69]

My mate Michael Reddell says this about this weeks tax cuts.

A reminder that these tax cuts are (a) being paid for by more borrowing, b) all else equal adding to demand & delaying falls in interest rates, & c) are partly paid for by new distortionary taxes on business.
A shame no party seems to care any longer about budget surpluses.

I think he’s right but as long as Luxon and his mates believe they doing good for most NZers it’s all OK

Nats posted this on X …apologies for polluting this thread

[alokdhir]

My mate Michael Reddell says this about this weeks tax cuts.

A reminder that these tax cuts are (a) being paid for by more borrowing, b) all else equal adding to demand & delaying falls in interest rates, & c) are partly paid for by new distortionary taxes on business.
A shame no party seems to care any longer about budget surpluses.

I think he’s right but as long as Luxon and his mates believe they doing good for most NZers it’s all OK

Giving a small lolly to a patient in the hospital is not spoiling his health but raising his spirits ...thats what these minuscule tax cuts achieve ....but media is in business of making news and opinions so they just doing their job !!!

[Leemsip]

I like the tax cuts - give people money and govt take on debt as the economy struggles... perfect.

I dont think National are mentally ready for the upcoming deep recession. They will respond by cutting back spending, when govt got to loosen the purse strings to offset private sector cut backs..
Will be interesting to see it unfold and them struggle with this.

[alokdhir]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2407/S00487/the-pressure-for-rbnz-rate-cuts-is-mounting-as-rates-markets-collapse.htm

Urgency for rate cuts ...media made or reality ...every meeting delay to actually cut will cause double the delay in recovery ahead ....cut delivered in August will provide relief in 9-12 months in future ....economy will keep drifting down and low point maybe 6 months ahead ....agree worst is yet to come for economy

[percy]

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/yTeFzhc0EQOyORVoHII2Fw/wM1gqviJ7qebNHmBvOKdKw
Book trade is tough.

[causecelebre]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2407/S00487/the-pressure-for-rbnz-rate-cuts-is-mounting-as-rates-markets-collapse.htm

Urgency for rate cuts ...media made or reality ...every meeting delay to actually cut will cause double the delay in recovery ahead ....cut delivered in August will provide relief in 9-12 months in future ....economy will keep drifting down and low point maybe 6 months ahead ....agree worst is yet to come for economy

I agree with that sentiment as well. However, I do think the average NZer's psyche will be buoyed by headlines reading rate cuts as the end of the tunnel. There will be a short sentiment shift and followed by further malaise once the massive realise rates cuts are not an immediate panacea promised by the pundits.

[blackcap]

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/yTeFzhc0EQOyORVoHII2Fw/wM1gqviJ7qebNHmBvOKdKw
Book trade is tough.

Hi Percy,

Is it really a book business these days? I visit my local paper plus about 3 times a week, and to me they sell more items outside of books than books. IN fact, I hardly see them selling books at all. More like trinkets, gifts and they provide a NZ post service where my local is.

I know the ladies there quite well, I might just ask them about the capital raise and how much they are needed to stump up with. I don't think they will be very happy.

[causecelebre]

savage reaction to microsoft results. :scared: big week still to go for mag7

anyway

Who are NZ's 1 percent, and how do you get there?


Stats NZ said in 2021 the top 1 percent of New Zealand households had net wealth - assets minus debts - of at least $7.59 million. That compares to median net worth for all households of $397,000
If you want to get rich, you'd better start early - and potentially have a bit of luck on your side
Here's the rundown on what it takes to be among the wealthiest people in New Zealand now, and how you might hope to get there.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/523665/who-are-nz-s-1-percent-and-how-do-you-get-there




The economist in the article did a podcast this morning. I'm sure the content of that podcast was the basis for article. I pulled him up on his numbers. Of course, he has a vested interest in having people invest in property as he is a partner in a property investment co (and i'm not saying investing in property is bad - I do it). I'm saying his numbers are disingenuous as they were not risk or inflation adjusted, they did not contain dividends and his property numbers did not take into account expenses, namely interest, and other opex (maintenance, property management, insurance), etc. Also given property is highly leveraged then his numbers could have also taken margined sharemarket investments into account as well.

And we then get berated by the property lobbyists when we argue that investing in productive businesses should gets its due!

[percy]

Hi Percy,

Is it really a book business these days? I visit my local paper plus about 3 times a week, and to me they sell more items outside of books than books. IN fact, I hardly see them selling books at all. More like trinkets, gifts and they provide a NZ post service where my local is.

I know the ladies there quite well, I might just ask them about the capital raise and how much they are needed to stump up with. I don't think they will be very happy.

Yes very much different from just a book, cards ,stationery, and magazine seller.
NZ Post is a lot of work for very little reward.[if any]
Most of their supplies now come from Australia,so logistics mean they have to a higher stock holding.
Emails and skype mean card sales and writing pad sales are under pressure,while You tube etc has seen magazine sales come under pressure.
It is interesting to note book sales have recovered.People seem to enjoy holding a book rather than reading them on line .
Paper Plus's head office revenue comes from collecting a % off wholesalers invoices,ie shops are charged through head office,which adds on a margin.
So if stores are not selling a lot they are buying less, which means head office's revenue is down.
Off the top of my head I think they will need to raise between $900,000 and $2,500,000..With 90 stores that would be $10,000 to $27,750 per store.
However it is all a catch 22.Store sales down,means head office revenue is down.Store sales down, their profit will be well down,and they too may be under pressure from their own bank.

,

[Toddy]

Markets look very UP overnight as rate cuts get closer.

[bull....]

fed pretty much saying sept cut on the table , barring anything bad happening. Should see RBNZ in play now. though got to remember 25 cut really doesnt make much difference to conditions

[Leemsip]

Going to be a search for yield across the board. Position accordingly...

[alokdhir]

fed pretty much saying sept cut on the table , barring anything bad happening. Should see RBNZ in play now. though got to remember 25 cut really doesnt make much difference to conditions

Change of mood leads to change of sentiment ...Evident from just few words of RNBZ made NZX do + 5.22 % last month ...real cut of any magnitude will do that once again ....NZX50 can end up + 10-15% by Dec end ...if all proceed smoothly on rates front ...80/100 chance ...imho

[causecelebre]

Fun fact: Google is making over $1b USD in interest income per quarter on its cash. Thats more than Kroger, Target, Paypal, Kraft Heinz, Starbucks, Chipotle, Blackstone, Air BnB, and Advanced Micro devices combined.

[Rawz]

Fun fact: Google is making over $1b USD in interest income per quarter on its cash. Thats more than Kroger, Target, Paypal, Kraft Heinz, Starbucks, Chipotle, Blackstone, Air BnB, and Advanced Micro devices combined.
thats crazy

[causecelebre]

thats crazy

I know right? High rates are inflationary lol

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/anz-cuts-home-loan-and-business-interest-rates/C2Z3Q3ATRNAXJGJILZYIQHSV6A/#google_vignette

Rates are on the move again ...RBNZ will follow the market ...not lead

US10Y 4.03% ...big move down after hearing Sept cut almost done deal ...RBNZ will either fall in line with market and move in August or will do 50 bps ahead ...doesnt matter to useable rates as banks already front running ...for banks its already down 75 bps ....I reckon


PS : Reducing floating rate shows confidence in OCR coming down soon !!!

[allfromacell]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/anz-cuts-home-loan-and-business-interest-rates/C2Z3Q3ATRNAXJGJILZYIQHSV6A/#google_vignette

Rates are on the move again ...RBNZ will follow the market ...not lead

US10Y 4.03% ...big move down after hearing Sept cut almost done deal ...RBNZ will either fall in line with market and move in August or will do 50 bps ahead ...doesnt matter to useable rates as banks already front running ...for banks its already down 75 bps ....I reckon


PS : Reducing floating rate shows confidence in OCR coming down soon !!!

Exactly, in practice RBNZ has already started cutting rates using their words words last month. The FED has done the same this morning. The interest rate cutting cycle has already begun.

Do not get caught off sides with low equities exposure. Some BTC exposure is wise too.

[bull....]

Change of mood leads to change of sentiment ...Evident from just few words of RNBZ made NZX do + 5.22 % last month ...real cut of any magnitude will do that once again ....NZX50 can end up + 10-15% by Dec end ...if all proceed smoothly on rates front ...80/100 chance ...imho

agree , but trump could change the longer term inflation outlook.

[alokdhir]

NZ10 Y made a 52 week low ...following US10Y

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmknz-10y?countrycode=bx&mod=mw_quote_recentlyviewed

[winner69]

NZ10 Y made a 52 week low ...following US10Y

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmknz-10y?countrycode=bx&mod=mw_quote_recentlyviewed

Let’s hope the market has guessed right this time around eh

[alokdhir]

Let’s hope the market has guessed right this time around eh

U dont make new 52 week lows ONLY on guesswork mate ...I think u will. agree with that :p

[Daytr]

Well that was a backflip overnight in US markets & the dollar. Signs of a divided market?
Real economy vs future perception?

[alokdhir]

I think NZX is better placed for mild rough landing then US ...reason for today's turbulence ...US market realising economy is not as good as stocks suggesting with ISM data well below expectation ...where as NZX was priced for hard landing all this while ...only recently it showed some life after RBNZ started acknowledging economy woes ....ie started talk of rate cuts needed sooner then imbibed in stocks or bond markets .

NZ needs cuts sooner then US but NZ markets were always priced for deep downtrend vs US ...US will see more turbulence ahead when reality turns out little gloomier then priced in

[Leemsip]

Agree Alok.... NZX has pretty reasonable multiples already. US could fall a long way and still be expensive.

[Daytr]

Yes and I think that's why so many NZ companies get delisted through takeover or privatization as comparatively the multiples are cheap.

Re the US, one is looking backwards I.e. PMI etc and one is looking forward I.e. interest rates.

I know which way I prefer to look.

[bull....]

us unemployment tonight , could be volatile again with this data print and threat of iran retaaliation

[JBmurc]

Gutted dam stop loss had a CFD short on the SP500 overnight from 5548...stop loss 5560 ... wasn't a big order but had I put the stop loss much higher or not bothered, I would have seen around 400%+ return ...

[Daytr]

Eh? 400% Do you mean 400% on the margin?

Yeah I just got stopped on my Nasdaq position as it got smashed 200 points in minutes

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/takeover-targets-after-arvida-and-the-warehouse-who-is-next-stock-takes/SOAQMEHHAZF3FCPZZWYAFVCA3Y/

[alokdhir]

Nikkei down 5% and ASX down 2.5% ...we down 0.5 % ....:D

[bull....]

Nikkei down 5% and ASX down 2.5% ...we down 0.5 % ....:D

hopefully we only down same on monday. nz bonds should have a decent fall monday putting more pressure on ORR to go sooner.

seems bad news is bad news now

See utilities , staple , real estate holding up best on the day

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job-growth-totals-114000-in-july-much-less-than-expected-as-unemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html

[Habits]

Uninverted yields across the board, the cash rate is well above bonds, will Fed cut by 50bp in sept

[alokdhir]

hopefully we only down same on monday. nz bonds should have a decent fall monday putting more pressure on ORR to go sooner.

seems bad news is bad news now

See utilities , staple , real estate holding up best on the day

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job-growth-totals-114000-in-july-much-less-than-expected-as-unemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html

Yes now bad news have become bad news as rates coming down already in stocks ...but economy faltering is not ...but still not big worry at least NZ market .

We shud stay within 1% down band on Monday too ...hopefully

[Daytr]

hopefully we only down same on monday. nz bonds should have a decent fall monday putting more pressure on ORR to go sooner.

seems bad news is bad news now

See utilities , staple , real estate holding up best on the day

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/job-growth-totals-114000-in-july-much-less-than-expected-as-unemployment-rate-rises-to-4point3percent.html

Yes strange how fickle the market can be when interpreting good as bad and bad as good and vica versa.

Nasdaq now down over 10%, Nikkei down 20%, China's outlook soft, US commercial property been a massive problem for a long time now and obviously the heat has come out of AI.

The NASDAQ is sitting around a pretty key support level, otherwise its down roughly another 10% to next key support.

Overall though,.unless this downward pressure exposes something major from left field, it should be just a correction.

At least my JPY trade has worked well!

[Panda-NZ-]

Brutal Intel SP decline @ 25% in one day.

So much for all the subsidies they were recieiving.

[X-men]

Over valued stock techs...

NZx should be fine...a lot of our stocks are real estate and utilities..... recent years with high interest rates have suppressed the sp

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/another-auckland-bus-attack-asian-woman-allegedly-robbed-on-route-no-70/PI55QTMBGRFVXMQ3S4N6VO652I/

May look innocuous at the moment ...but it can ruin NZ's reputation as a tourist destination and safe working environment ...imagine nz without a que of immigrants ready to do the hard work for us just to get PR .

Modern times news travel fast and everywhere ...such stories go viral in some countries ...only if she had a video !!!!

[JBmurc]

Eh? 400% Do you mean 400% on the margin?

Yeah I just got stopped on my Nasdaq position as it got smashed 200 points in minutes

yes CFD 500:1 leverage.. great when you get the right direction

[bull....]

buffett selling 2 stocks big time . might say something about the economy and mag 7 ?

Berkshire halves Apple stake, boosts cash to $277 billion as it gets 'defensive


https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/berkshires-cash-hits-277-bln-buffett-slashes-apple-stake-operating-profit-sets-2024-08-03/


wonder how he will maintain beating the index with cash growing ever bigger ?

[Daytr]

In May Buffett was still talking up Japanese investment, don't get me wrong he did exceedingly well from it, but perhaps his not looking at the macro failed him.
Japanese stocks were largely being driven by a weak yen due to the comparatively low interest rates. It was obvious that cycle was coming to an end.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2024/05/08/warren-buffetts-8-billion-japan-profit-is-a-game-changer/

[alokdhir]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/03/berkshire-hathaway-warren-buffett-sells-off-apple-increases-cash-holdings


Another perspective to above story !

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-whats-going-to-happen-to-interest-rates-from-here/WJZPMUQEDRFDFBWUH3WO2YDEWM/

Sensible thoughts to rates path ahead !

[alokdhir]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350363495/heres-what-interest-rates-are-doing

When majority is on one side then it doesnt happen ....just like TRA index inclusion ...cud not cross $ 5 while GTK did so well !!!

[bull....]

In May Buffett was still talking up Japanese investment, don't get me wrong he did exceedingly well from it, but perhaps his not looking at the macro failed him.
Japanese stocks were largely being driven by a weak yen due to the comparatively low interest rates. It was obvious that cycle was coming to an end.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2024/05/08/warren-buffetts-8-billion-japan-profit-is-a-game-changer/

some people saying the unwind of the yen carry trade is a negative for US stocks at the moment as well

[causecelebre]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-whats-going-to-happen-to-interest-rates-from-here/WJZPMUQEDRFDFBWUH3WO2YDEWM/

Sensible thoughts to rates path ahead !

I also wonder if rates will come down as fast as people hope. For slightly different reasons than that article. We have a lower corporate tax take and thats reducing steadily and the govt is still spending. We have the matter of the change in tax thresholds, tax cuts by any other name and even if in the ministers mind that is fully funded, we have a deficit and $12 billion in borrowing, i.e., bonds, that need issuing. Better that be done at higher rates, no?

[stoploss]

I also wonder if rates will come down as fast as people hope. For slightly different reasons than that article. We have a lower corporate tax take and thats reducing steadily and the govt is still spending. We have the matter of the change in tax thresholds, tax cuts by any other name and even if in the ministers mind that is fully funded, we have a deficit and $12 billion in borrowing, i.e., bonds, that need issuing. Better that be done at higher rates, no?
Its better for the taxpayer if they are issued at a lower rate , less interet to pay on them !!!!!!

[Daytr]

some people saying the unwind of the yen carry trade is a negative for US stocks at the moment as well

Yeah not sure about that, sounds like people looking for a reason. I would suggest it's purely about earnings & the heat coming out of AI.

I see it as a correction, but is it a 10% correction or 20%? Time will tell.

[Panda-NZ-]

Its better for the taxpayer if they are issued at a lower rate , less interet to pay on them !!!!!!

Also who buys them? The RBNZ ie the govt owes itself or America/China/japan.

[stoploss]

Also who buys them? The RBNZ ie the govt owes itself or America/China/japan.
The later ,if it was the RBNZ it would be the money go round again and that cost us circa $ 10 billion last time .Govt still recapitalising RBNZ at something like $ 250 million a month for that. Not sure the RBNZ Governor wants to repeat that dose .......

[alokdhir]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523446/are-nz-equities-a-buy.html

Making a case for NZ stocks !!!

[winner69]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523446/are-nz-equities-a-buy.html

Making a case for NZ stocks !!!

Hope all these gurus are right eh alokdhir

I know it’ll happen for sure when Katie does a rave on 1News

[Toddy]

Hope all these gurus are right eh alokdhir

I know it’ll happen for sure when Katie does a rave on 1News

Of course she is right. However, you cannot afford to invest in the Companies with too much debt, increasing costs, negative cashflows, paying no dividends, and relient on gas or expensive energy.

There is good value on the NZX, but buyer beware.. Too many people rely on the punt of a takeover, or keep buying the dogs to average their price.

[bull....]

Yeah not sure about that, sounds like people looking for a reason. I would suggest it's purely about earnings & the heat coming out of AI.

I see it as a correction, but is it a 10% correction or 20%? Time will tell.

11/7 both nasdaq and yen currency trade broke down also japan 10yr bond started to rise , i see it as mix of yen carry trade unwinding and like you say AI overstretched prob why buffet took 50% profit in apple at peak. ( who would have guessed buffet times the market lol )

[Rawz]

Of course she is right. However, you cannot afford to invest in the Companies with too much debt, increasing costs, negative cashflows, paying no dividends, and relient on gas or expensive energy.

There is good value on the NZX, but buyer beware.. Too many people rely on the punt of a takeover, or keep buying the dogs to average their price.

100% agree....

[Rawz]

11/7 both nasdaq and yen currency trade broke down also japan 10yr bond started to rise , i see it as mix of yen carry trade unwinding and like you say AI overstretched prob why buffet took 50% profit in apple at peak. ( who would have guessed buffet times the market lol )
Buffet probably is the clock in the apple situation

[winner69]

Yes now bad news have become bad news as rates coming down already in stocks ...but economy faltering is not ...but still not big worry at least NZ market .

We shud stay within 1% down band on Monday too ...hopefully

Good call with your 1% down call alokdhir ….. early in day but we should be OK

[Daytr]

The NASDAQ has a pretty good support line around the lows of this morning. It will be interesting if it holds.
Been tested twice now, once on Friday & first thing this morning.

[bull....]

japanese market looks like a massive tank on again today , circuit breaker hit on the futures
NZ bonds big drop this morning

[Leemsip]

asx getting pummeled. 2.5% down...

[Leemsip]

Is the nikkei halted?

[winner69]

Talk of recession … we should remember that a recession generally implies a hiatus between periods of economic growth but we are currently experiencing sustained economic growth decline and are unwilling to either discuss this fact, nor do anything about it.

[Daytr]

Talk of recession … we should remember that a recession generally implies a hiatus between periods of economic growth but we are currently experiencing sustained economic growth decline and are unwilling to either discuss this fact, nor do anything about it.

Yep, but earnings have been great up until now in a high interest rate environment outside of Japan.
Japan is experiencing an overweight market running for the door. The NIKKEI now on key support. I really can't believe the market didn't see this coming.

[bull....]

Is the nikkei halted?

just temp halt usually when prices fall to quick.

look at bitcoin :scared: down 10% was the carry trade in bitcoin ? lol

[bull....]

looks like some fear is really starting :scared: be a wild night tonight

[Getty]

Are we in October?

[Daytr]

looks like some fear is really starting :scared: be a wild night tonight

What's the saying about when others are fearful...

[777]

Japan down a further 6% plus.

[bull....]

What's the saying about when others are fearful...

yep , tonight important night for that

[ValueNZ]

What's the saying about when others are fearful...
But you don't like lower prices right Daytr? :D

[Daytr]

But you don't like lower prices right Daytr? :D

Not when I'm long.
Been short Japan for over a month now.
Love those lower prices.
No doubt cashing in on Warren's exit. 😉

[JBmurc]

just temp halt usually when prices fall to quick.

look at bitcoin :scared: down 10% was the carry trade in bitcoin ? lol

down 12.5% so much for safe haven LOL

[Daytr]

yep , tonight important night for that

I'm starting to build a long in the NASDAQ.
I can take a bit of heat and average in if need be.

[warthog]

down 12.5% so much for safe haven LOL

Who told you it was a safe haven?

[Panda-NZ-]

down 12.5% so much for safe haven LOL

It's a store of value.. for money launderers.

[JBmurc]

Who told you it was a safe haven?

every BTC pic I've ever seen is of a GOLD coin ... countless promotions of being DIGITAL GOLD ...as it failed as a mainstream currency..

just a quick search
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/28/is-bitcoin-the-ultimate-safe-haven-asset/

[alokdhir]

What a stampede caused by overcrowded trades ...Rates having a hefty fall ...stocks panic sold ...Stocks will bounce back as they actually love lower rates and higher bond prices ...rates will keep tumbling but stocks should recover ...NZX is best safe heaven at the moment ...forget Bitcoin ...think TWR ...lol

[flyinglizard]

15213


it seems not a big problem in the short term.

[Toddy]

I find this all very interesting. On the NZX I think the 'forced' sellers are well and truly already out. So maybe a bit of profit taking and a few scared traders.

And as usual the junk stocks are thinly traded so who cares.

With interest rates coming down and the Kiwi dollar looking very weak then there should be no panic and good opportunities for the usual NZ stocks that perform year in year out.

[bull....]

15213


it seems not a big problem in the short term.

whats the % profit of the system though

[causecelebre]

It's a store of value.. for money launderers.

haha haters always appear when it dropping. Come on, show up when it’s on a run ;)

I’ll say one thing, holding crypto certainly steels you for equity volatility

[ValueNZ]

Not when I'm long.
Been short Japan for over a month now.
Love those lower prices.
No doubt cashing in on Warren's exit. 
Well I personally look forward to (hopefully) getting a nice low buy order filled for some STLA tomorrow.

[Daytr]

Well I personally look forward to (hopefully) getting a nice low buy order filled for some STLA tomorrow.

Good for you, it's looking pretty attractive.
We will make a trader of you yet. 😉

[winner69]

Well I personally look forward to (hopefully) getting a nice low buy order filled for some STLA tomorrow.

I see one guru has STLA Intrinsic Value: at $45.29

Jeez $16.13 is really cheap ........ at .35 IV

[LEMON]

every BTC pic I've ever seen is of a GOLD coin ... countless promotions of being DIGITAL GOLD ...as it failed as a mainstream currency..

just a quick search
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/28/is-bitcoin-the-ultimate-safe-haven-asset/

JBmurc, you only sound smart to those who think they are to clever to learn a little. You've been banging the same drum for years and you are still thick as sludge

[Mrbuyit]

Well I personally look forward to (hopefully) getting a nice low buy order filled for some STLA tomorrow.

Do people still buy Jeeps and weird Fronch cars?

[LEMON]

You've been calling it a scam for years and now BTC is suddenly the Trojan horse of dystopia. You can't just flip and flop in any direction that gives your thick tooth skull some reassurance that you might have been right, all you do is set yourself up to be wrong time and time again.

"Bitcoins is a trojan horse for CBDC" you narrow minded fool, it's a open source distributed ledger, if you see no value in it great, who cares, do yourself a favour and stop trying to make up hysteric bs to suit your narrative.

The worst part is how convinced you are, that you're on to something, yet all the information is already there for you, if you just got over yourself

[ronaldson]

This index retreat is widespread. Does anyone think the current circumstance has started to seriously price in the heightened possibility for real geo-political conflict?

There are always those with knowledge we mere mortals can only guess at. And exiting/reducing exposure to the market would be a logical response.

[Bobdn]

This is a classic Black Monday. There's only a handful of other times ive been down this much in a single day.

I think over the years I've become a financial psychopath - I feel nothing with these major sell offs now. Maybe if we see a drop of 50 per cent I start getting twitchy.

Ten years ago it took very little to get me in the fetal position.

PS I sell nothing and do nothing. I have a 5 percent allocation to cash so hopefully markets will recover somewhat before it's depleted and I have to top it up.

I should add that my financial assets reached an all time high on 30 July - but I've been retired for 7 years and haven't earnt a dollar of fresh cash. It felt "unreasonable" and against the natural order of things. I think we're due for some serious reversion.

[winner69]

Late afternoon rally under way on NZX

[flyinglizard]

whats the % profit of the system though

It needs to go with other indictors and some manual work. confident with 5%-10% return per month

[bull....]

I'm starting to build a long in the NASDAQ.
I can take a bit of heat and average in if need be.

your brave , nikkei losses today 8% + at moment :scared: .

[causecelebre]

This is a classic Black Monday. There's only a handful of other times ive been down this much in a single day.

I think over the years I've become a financial psychopath - I feel nothing with these major sell offs now. Maybe if we see a drop of 50 per cent I start getting twitchy.

Ten years ago it took very little to get me in the fetal position.

PS I sell nothing and do nothing. I have a 5 percent allocation to cash so hopefully markets will recover somewhat before it's depleted and I have to top it up.

I should add that my financial assets reached an all time high on 30 July - but I've been retired for 7 years and haven't earnt a dollar of fresh cash. It felt "unreasonable" and against the natural order of things. I think we're due for some serious reversion.

Me also. The crypto collapse in ‘17 taught me so much. My core holdings (95%) are not to be touched for many years so these equity corrections are an opportunity to buy at a better price. A wee equity 20% drawdown is psychologically manageable for me. What does scare me a bit is a lost decade or more

[Panda-NZ-]

Oh dear. futures keep getting worse. I prefer they do though ;)

[bull....]

10% down on nikkei now :scared:

vix in the mid 30s now ... panic is setting in :scared: monster move tonight ? buffet set of an avalance to spend his cash on ?

[nztx]

Gez .. what's fallen over big time to cause this ?

Another Financial meltdown in larger markets ?

[kiora]

"Hedge Funds Post Biggest Retreat on Bearish Yen Bets Since 2011"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-post-biggest-retreat-012417515.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/carry-trade-how-japans-yen-could-be-ripping-through-us-stocks.html

"The rising yen has fueled speculation about whether this could mark the end of the popular so-called “carry trade” — wherein an investor borrows in a currency with low interest rates, such as the yen, and reinvests the proceeds in a currency with a higher rate of return.

“The now evident vulnerability of US equity prices to a rise in the Yen exchange rate warns of the consequences for US asset prices and developed-world asset prices in general from monetary policy changes in the east,” Napier said in the Tuesday report."

[Daytr]

your brave , nikkei losses today 8% + at moment :scared: .

I'm short japan

[Bobdn]

@causecelebre quite right. Lost decades are not a pleasant thought. Everyone is cool calm and collected until they get repeatedly punched in the face during a lost decade.

Interestingly from a retirement perspective 1966 was the worst time to retire. The high inflation and bear markets of the 1970s made it worse than the 1929 and early 1930s collapses.

The recent lost decade from 2001 didn't make a dent in bog standard retirement portfolio allocations in terms of the success rate ie the money didn't run out. During those 10 years it would have felt horrible however and I bet it curbed spending terribly. I would have toned things down despite 6 simulations tellings me I didn't have to worry.

[bull....]

I'm short japan

good stuff looks like its crashing now 12% down and climbing. the mag7 might get thrashed tonight

[winner69]

US markets crashing all Kamala’s fault?

[alokdhir]

US markets crashing all Kamala’s fault?

Surely as per Trump ...:p

Yield curve inversion about to end ...good sign or ??

Japan is the source of trouble ...may lead to some Lehman belly up and then rates dropping even more ...soon the way its going ...Not seen Singapore index down 5% before ...why ? Just collateral damage or margin selling or world trade collapsing ??

[allfromacell]

It's just a bit of low liquidity panic selling. A bit like buying OCA at 0.51c 😎

[JBmurc]

All Markets are getting very messy indeed .. rate cuts coming soon to a Reserve Bank near you!!!

[causecelebre]

US markets crashing all Kamala’s fault?

US futures looking a bit squeaky bum.

At the very least she is going to have to front up with a economic plan. If the US economy tanks, then she will have to denounce Biden's and the Dem's economic plan. GOP certainly will. She's already flip-flopped and become far more centrist. Will be interesting to see how she fares in an unscripted debate without a teleprompter. She is certainly the product of left main stream media. If it turns to custard in the middle east does she have the wherewithal to deal with a US public effectively divided on the issue. She will get the popular vote but has much to do to win the electoral college

[Panda-NZ-]

The S&P is up nearly 100% since the Biden presidency. Sure there are some greedy piglets who think it should never go down or invest in hype like AI and get burned.. that's quite normal.

[causecelebre]

Yeah nah, I was talking the economy not the markets and how that develops over the next few months

[fastbike]

He's nailed it
https://robertreich.substack.com/p/another-black-monday

[maclir]

US futures looking a bit squeaky bum.

At the very least she is going to have to front up with a economic plan. If the US economy tanks, then she will have to denounce Biden's and the Dem's economic plan. GOP certainly will. She's already flip-flopped and become far more centrist. Will be interesting to see how she fares in an unscripted debate without a teleprompter. She is certainly the product of left main stream media. If it turns to custard in the middle east does she have the wherewithal to deal with a US public effectively divided on the issue. She will get the popular vote but has much to do to win the electoral college

What is this, Fox News?

[ynot]

What is this, Fox News?

Just Reality.

[Panda-NZ-]

Just Reality.

Share market goes up 100%: Market forces and free market supremacy.
Goes down slightly: Biden's fault.

[alokdhir]

S&P 500 down 3% ...200DSMA close to 5000 ...shud take support there ...most likely and then bounce to 50DSMA ...is it enough trouble or carry unwinding that 200DSMA can break and keep S&P500 there ...not likely imo ...so this weakness will not last ...range shud be formed till elections 5150-5400 maybe !!!

[moka]

What is this, Fox News?
Just Reality.

Fox news = Faux news, they pretend to be actual journalists but they are not. Quote from a black woman doing her job, United States Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett calling it out.

[moka]

He's nailed it
https://robertreich.substack.com/p/another-black-mondayI totally agree with this statement in the article:
In any event, although Trump doesn’t seem to realize it, the stock market is not the real economy. The real economy is comprised of average working people whose spending determines whether and how fast businesses will hire more workers.

[blackcap]

Fox news = Faux news, they pretend to be actual journalists but they are not. Quote from a black woman doing her job, United States Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett calling it out.

CNN is fake news, they pretend to be actual journalists but they are note. Multiple quotes from US congressmen and woman and US senators.

[Aaron]

I do not understand, the Fed and the RBNZ have just confirmed rates cuts are not far away but markets are falling.

Is this just preparing the dip that we should be buying into, in anticipation of money printing and interest rate suppression in the near future?

[Daytr]

CNN is fake news, they pretend to be actual journalists but they are note. Multiple quotes from US congressmen and woman and US senators.

Straight from Trump’s handbook. Mind you Trump doesn't like any media organization that doesn't pander to him.
CNN are definitely biased against Trump, no doubt, but hey they can't stomach the red clown either.

[Daytr]

He's nailed it
https://robertreich.substack.com/p/another-black-monday

Hmmmm not so sure.
No mention of the carry trade particularly exiting Japan.

I didn't realise it sounds like there was also quite a bit of foriegn borrowing in JPY which would have been a great trade with the JPY weakening 40%, but with the sharp correction that money that was invested in the NIKKEI and currency has looked for a narrowing exit.

[alokdhir]

I do not understand, the Fed and the RBNZ have just confirmed rates cuts are not far away but markets are falling.

Is this just preparing the dip that we should be buying into, in anticipation of money printing and interest rate suppression in the near future?

It's the unwinding of JPY carry trade ...built up positions over last 3 years of rates trend upwards ....which is also final confirmation that rates trend has finally reversed for good ...once this has unwound then stocks will regain their bearings based on new downtrend ahead of rates ...nothing much to worry ...imo

Ferocity of this unwinding just like a stampede is causing sympathetic falls in world markets ...NZX was not part of carry money ...surely not on large scale thats the main reason NZD not aggressively sold ...

Money is going home to Japan ...Borrowed at almost 0 rate and invested in world assets for arbitrage gains ...went on for 3 years ...unwinding in few days leads to this chaos ...hopefully worst is over if nothing breaks while this unwinding going on

[bull....]

historically when the fed cuts rates after a peak a recession has followed soon after. maybe different this time ? anyway price action didnt look like a bottom to me

[Aaron]

It's the unwinding of JPY carry trade ...built up positions over last 3 years of rates trend upwards ....which is also final confirmation that rates trend has finally reversed for good ...once this has unwound then stocks will regain their bearings based on new downtrend ahead of rates ...nothing much to worry ...imo

Ferocity of this unwinding just like a stampede is causing sympathetic falls in world markets ...NZX was not part of carry money ...surely not on large scale thats the main reason NZD not aggressively sold ...

Money is going home to Japan ...Borrowed at almost 0 rate and invested in world assets for arbitrage gains ...went on for 3 years ...unwinding in few days leads this chaos ...hopefully worst is over if nothing breaks while this unwinding going on

Thanks for that I guess raising the Japanese OCR from .1% to .25% is a substantial increase (150%). A bit scary when a .15% change in interest rates causes panic, I guess it suggests that there is a lot of debt.

So did foreign investment banks and companies issue bonds in Japan for the JCB to buy? Who else would lend money at close to 0%?

I guess the japanese OCR is not the same as the rate on the bonds.

A decrease in global liquidity (debt/money) that can't be good for markets?

[alokdhir]

Thanks for that I guess raising the Japanese OCR from .1% to .25% is a substantial increase (150%). A bit scary when a .15% change in interest rates causes panic, I guess it suggests that there is a lot of debt.

So did foreign investment banks and companies issue bonds in Japan for the JCB to buy? Who else would lend money at close to 0%?

I guess the japanese OCR is not the same as the rate on the bonds.

A decrease in global liquidity (debt/money) that can't be good for markets?

This happens all the cycles of rates ... imagine borrowing JPY at 0.25-0.5% @ JPY 110 to USD and investing in say just USD treasuries / stocks 3 years back ...made gains on both sides ...JPY 150 to USD plus gains on treasuries or stocks etc ...some must be sitting on huge profits made over the period so selling now at any rate and going back to JPY at any rate makes sense ....while the rate trend is up JPY downtrend was almost a certainty so not much currency risk ...margin loan rates in JPY is almost negligible cost compared to returns possible outside Japan ....so its a very workable arbitrage especially at start of rates cycle ...

[Daytr]

historically when the fed cuts rates after a peak a recession has followed soon after. maybe different this time ? anyway price action didnt look like a bottom to me

Possibly although the NIKKEI bounced 10% intraday from its lows, which would have given panicked sellers still holding an opportunity to exit.

[moka]

A carry trade is a trading strategy that involves borrowing at a low interest rate and investing in an asset that provides a higher rate of return. Here are the key points about carry trades:

Basic concept: Investors borrow money in a low-interest currency and invest it in higher-yielding assets or currencies.

Common example: Borrowing in Japanese yen (low interest rate) to invest in higher-yielding currencies or assets like stocks, commodities, bonds, or real estate.

Potential profit: The profit comes from the interest rate differential between the borrowed currency and the invested asset.

Leverage: Traders often use leverage to amplify potential returns, but this also increases risk.

Popularity: It's one of the most popular trading strategies in the forex market.

Best timing: Carry trades tend to work well when central banks are raising interest rates or during periods of low market volatility.

Major risks:
· Currency risk: Unexpected changes in exchange rates can wipe out profits or lead to losses.
· Market risk: A sharp decline in the price of invested assets can result in losses.

Scale: By 2007, it was estimated that about $1 trillion was involved in yen carry trades.

Impact on markets: The unwinding of large-scale carry trades can cause significant market turbulence, as seen recently with the Bank of Japan's small rate hike leading to global market selloffs.

Not an arbitrage: Unlike pure arbitrage, carry trades are profitable only if market conditions remain favorable.

It's important to note that while carry trades can be profitable, they involve substantial risks and are generally more suitable for sophisticated investors or institutions with high risk tolerance.
(Info from Perplexity AI)

[Toddy]

I feel so hot hum about this correction. Because we are basically 'informed' every second 24 hours a day means that the 'surprises' unwind instantly now days.



With interest rates will be coming off very soon.. And it benefits my farm debt cost and frees up cashflow that I can then put into other companies on the stock market.

[X-men]

Dow started the year at 37500...now is at 38700....what fkg meltdown that the people talking about???

[Toddy]

Hands up the idiot who refixed a portion of debt at 4pm yesterday as was due today.

Emm

[moka]

I asked Perplexity AI how big the carry trade was and it said by 2007, it was estimated that about $1 trillion was involved in yen carry trades alone. 2007 is a long time ago.
But Motley Fool says -- an estimated $4 trillion.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-carry-trade-and-how-did-small-rate-hike-japan-just-trigger-global-sell

What Is a Carry Trade, and How Did a Small Rate Hike in Japan Just Trigger a Global Sell-Off?
Why did markets around the world drop sharply on Monday? What does it have to do with the Bank of Japan? And what is a carry trade?
It turns out those questions are all closely related.

For months, market observers have been talking about a popular trade in which investors borrowed in Japanese yen at very low interest rates, and then invested the borrowed money in high-growth investments like the "Magnificent Seven (https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/magnificent-seven/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=620744e5-ae20-4e8e-9e91-4d0e45894b1e)" stocks.
Borrowing cheaply to buy higher-returning investments is called a "carry trade (https://www.fool.com/terms/p/positive-carry/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=620744e5-ae20-4e8e-9e91-4d0e45894b1e)." It's a common strategy for a good reason: Carry trades can be very profitable as long as they work.

But when a popular carry trade abruptly stops working, the effects can be widespread.

Concerns about the carry trade had been rising for weeks, in part because of the enormous amount of money involved in it -- an estimated $4 trillion. Those concerns soared on July 31, when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%

Consider: If you had borrowed 10 million yen a month ago and immediately converted it to U.S. dollars, you'd have had about $62,000. But given the way the yen has surged recently, you would need about $70,000 to pay back that loan today -- even without taking interest and fees into account.

Put another way, you need to have made roughly 13% on that borrowed money in one month just to break even on the loan. That's a much bigger deal than the Bank of Japan's 0.15% interest rate hike.

Given that there was an enormous amount of money involved in this particular carry trade, the unwinding is having massive effects in markets around the world as investors sell stocks and other assets in order to repay those loans.

[flyinglizard]

I asked Perplexity AI how big the carry trade was and it said by 2007, it was estimated that about $1 trillion was involved in yen carry trades alone. 2007 is a long time ago.
But Motley Fool says -- an estimated $4 trillion.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-carry-trade-and-how-did-small-rate-hike-japan-just-trigger-global-sell

What Is a Carry Trade, and How Did a Small Rate Hike in Japan Just Trigger a Global Sell-Off?
Why did markets around the world drop sharply on Monday? What does it have to do with the Bank of Japan? And what is a carry trade?
It turns out those questions are all closely related.

For months, market observers have been talking about a popular trade in which investors borrowed in Japanese yen at very low interest rates, and then invested the borrowed money in high-growth investments like the "Magnificent Seven (https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/magnificent-seven/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=620744e5-ae20-4e8e-9e91-4d0e45894b1e)" stocks.
Borrowing cheaply to buy higher-returning investments is called a "carry trade (https://www.fool.com/terms/p/positive-carry/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=620744e5-ae20-4e8e-9e91-4d0e45894b1e)." It's a common strategy for a good reason: Carry trades can be very profitable as long as they work.

But when a popular carry trade abruptly stops working, the effects can be widespread.

Concerns about the carry trade had been rising for weeks, in part because of the enormous amount of money involved in it -- an estimated $4 trillion. Those concerns soared on July 31, when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%

Consider: If you had borrowed 10 million yen a month ago and immediately converted it to U.S. dollars, you'd have had about $62,000. But given the way the yen has surged recently, you would need about $70,000 to pay back that loan today -- even without taking interest and fees into account.

Put another way, you need to have made roughly 13% on that borrowed money in one month just to break even on the loan. That's a much bigger deal than the Bank of Japan's 0.15% interest rate hike.

Given that there was an enormous amount of money involved in this particular carry trade, the unwinding is having massive effects in markets around the world as investors sell stocks and other assets in order to repay those loans.


you are right about Yen carry trade. The first time that I heard about that was at business school of University of Canterbury in 2004/2005.

[Newman]

I asked Perplexity AI how big the carry trade was and it said by 2007, it was estimated that about $1 trillion was involved in yen carry trades alone. 2007 is a long time ago.
But Motley Fool says -- an estimated $4 trillion.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/what-carry-trade-and-how-did-small-rate-hike-japan-just-trigger-global-sell

What Is a Carry Trade, and How Did a Small Rate Hike in Japan Just Trigger a Global Sell-Off?
Why did markets around the world drop sharply on Monday? What does it have to do with the Bank of Japan? And what is a carry trade?
It turns out those questions are all closely related.

For months, market observers have been talking about a popular trade in which investors borrowed in Japanese yen at very low interest rates, and then invested the borrowed money in high-growth investments like the "Magnificent Seven (https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/magnificent-seven/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=620744e5-ae20-4e8e-9e91-4d0e45894b1e)" stocks.
Borrowing cheaply to buy higher-returning investments is called a "carry trade (https://www.fool.com/terms/p/positive-carry/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=620744e5-ae20-4e8e-9e91-4d0e45894b1e)." It's a common strategy for a good reason: Carry trades can be very profitable as long as they work.

But when a popular carry trade abruptly stops working, the effects can be widespread.

Concerns about the carry trade had been rising for weeks, in part because of the enormous amount of money involved in it -- an estimated $4 trillion. Those concerns soared on July 31, when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25%

Consider: If you had borrowed 10 million yen a month ago and immediately converted it to U.S. dollars, you'd have had about $62,000. But given the way the yen has surged recently, you would need about $70,000 to pay back that loan today -- even without taking interest and fees into account.

Put another way, you need to have made roughly 13% on that borrowed money in one month just to break even on the loan. That's a much bigger deal than the Bank of Japan's 0.15% interest rate hike.

Given that there was an enormous amount of money involved in this particular carry trade, the unwinding is having massive effects in markets around the world as investors sell stocks and other assets in order to repay those loans.

This helps explain the decrease in the US stock market, but why did the Nikkei drop 12.5% yesterday?

[moka]

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Today's S&P Sub 5,255 Close Triggers $77 Billion In Global CTA Selling

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/close-below-5255-today-triggers-77-billion-global-cta-selling
(https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/close-below-5255-today-triggers-77-billion-global-cta-selling)

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1820525207431324148
(https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1820525207431324148)

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[moka]

This helps explain the decrease in the US stock market, but why did the Nikkei drop 12.5% yesterday?

The Nikkei 225, Japan's main stock index, experienced a dramatic 12.4% drop on Monday, August 5, 2024, marking its worst single-day decline since the "Black Monday" crash of October 1987. This significant plunge was primarily driven by two key factors:

U.S. economic concerns:

Investors were worried that the U.S. economy might be in worse shape than previously expected. This concern was fueled by weaker-than-expected U.S. July jobs data, which heightened fears of a potential recession. As the United States is a major trading partner and economic influencer for Japan, negative economic indicators from the U.S. can have a substantial impact on Japanese markets.

Strengthening yen:

The Japanese yen strengthened to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since January, trading at around 145.42 yen per dollar. A stronger yen can negatively impact Japanese exporters by making their products more expensive in foreign markets and reducing the value of overseas earnings when converted back to yen. This particularly affected heavyweight trading houses and export-oriented companies, with some seeing drops of more than 10%.

The sell-off was widespread, affecting a broad range of companies across various sectors. The drop followed a previous decline of 5.8% on Friday, resulting in the Nikkei's worst two-day decline ever, with a total drop of 18.2% over two trading sessions. It's worth noting that this sharp decline also brought the Nikkei and the broader Topix index close to bear market territory, having fallen almost 20% from their all-time highs reached on July 11, 2024.
Answered by Perplexity AI

[Aaron]

So the lesson from this is rising interest rates bad, low interest rates good?

Had the JCB not raised rates the yen would have got even weaker so on top of the yield on the carry trade they were also making foreign exchange gains when it came time to repay the debt.

No downside to weak currencies especially if you have a lot of debt?

With rate cuts coming then I guess it is still BTFD.

[audiav]

If you follow The Secret Broker (of Stockhead fame) on Twitter, has some interesting observations. This is one, if link works https://x.com/secretbrokerau/status/1820396760214454617?s=46&t=snManc4Man5cMIZu6pUj5Q

[moka]

This article mentions the carry trade.

Live: Top companies lose US$800 billion in value as NZX opens down | RNZ News
(https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/524254/live-top-companies-lose-us-800-billion-in-value-as-nzx-opens-down)
Top companies lose US$800 billion in value as NZX opens down

US share markets posted heavy losses on fears the American economy is headed for recession.
When markets closed at 8am (NZT), the broader S&P 500 index fell 3 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 2.6 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.4 percent. Earlier, the Nasdaq opened 6.3 percent lower, but clawed back some of the losses after data showed US services sector activity rebounding in July.

Tech stocks taking harder hit
Volatile trading expected to continue

Volatile trading in markets is expected to continue over the rest of the week, if not longer as investors close out of high risk positions. The sell-off of risk assets was expected to continue given the size of the carry-trade, estimated about US$4 trillion dollars.
Speizer said risky currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Norwegian kroner were vulnerable to downside risk, as well as some equities, subsets of equity markets, such as tech sector stocks.He said the market will watch with interest to see how the Reserve Bank of Australia reacts to the turmoil, when it releases its decision on whether to hold its official cash rate at 4.35 percent, later this afternoon.

Magnificent Seven set to shed US$800 billion in value
Apple, Tesla, Alphabet and Amazon each dropped more than 4 percent, while Nvidia tumbled 7 percent, and Microsoft and Meta Platforms fell 3 percent as worries about a potential US recession compounded investor concerns about massive spending to build AI infrastructure.

[moka]

No mention of the carry trade in this article which was the trigger for the sudden drop. Article quotes Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold,
The way propaganda works now is selective presentation of facts: Propagandists often cherry-pick information, presenting only facts that support their narrative while omitting contradictory evidence. This creates a distorted view of reality that can be difficult for the average person to recognize.

What's actually going on with sharemarkets? | RNZ News
(https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/524276/what-s-actually-going-on-with-sharemarkets)
New Zealanders woke to headlines about sharemarket carnage overnight (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/524242/what-does-international-sharemarket-turmoil-mean-for-kiwisaver). The S&P 500 closed down 3 percent, the Nasdaq by about 3.4 percent, the Nikkei by a dramatic 12.4 percent, and even the ASX 3.7 percent - a A$100 billion "wipe out" of investor value.
So what's caused this?
Earnings
Weaker jobs data
Interest rates
Tech stocks
Geopolitical tensions
And what about bitcoin?
How bad is it really?

Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold said sometimes the New Zealand dollar would come under pressure in these types of conditions but so far it has held up. "It's different than in the GFC when the NZD was getting trashed."

It's different this time – yeah right!

[X-men]

Dow future is up! The world is ok now when Dow ups!

[kiora]

Futures up
Is that surprising?
Drop was just shaking the tree?

S& P giving back gains since Mid June?
Russell 2000 gains since mid July?
Time will tell

[Rawz]

Anyone got a crystal ball around here?

[Daytr]

Anyone got a crystal ball around here?

Yep I gave mine a polish and asked it what should I do, and without hesitation it said "go fishing!" :t_up:

[alokdhir]

Looking at NZD ...it seems risk ON trade coming to town soon ...thats the cue for long equity trade :cool:

[warthog]

every BTC pic I've ever seen is of a GOLD coin ... countless promotions of being DIGITAL GOLD ...as it failed as a mainstream currency..

just a quick search
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/28/is-bitcoin-the-ultimate-safe-haven-asset/

Don't believe everything you read on the internet.

[nztx]

Yep I gave mine a polish and asked it what should I do, and without hesitation it said "go fishing!" :t_up:


Not many bites on here .. they might have beat you to it out there and be on the way back with your fish already :)

[troyvdh]

Isnt a correction in the SM a healthy thing...

In preference to a "crash"....

[nztx]

Isnt a correction in the SM a healthy thing...

In preference to a "crash"....


nothing like a good correction .. can never waste such opportunities :)