Black Monday

[ValueNZ]

yep use what ever tools make you money. thats what its all about.

anyway your nzd trade was way to go , quite often in the last yr it fades after a big jump on ORR's hawkishness.
The point is that if you aren't beating the index over a long period, there's no point in doing all that mental gymnastics for a worse result. Just sit on your arse like Bobdn and enjoy profits better than the vast majority of investors.

[ValueNZ]

smashed it again. stock split opens stock up to more demand too.
I think the majority of investors have access to fractional shares, so there shouldn't be any difference at all.

But then again your average investor might view it as "smaller number = more shares!!1! = cheaper" and irrationally bid up the price more.

[bull....]

The point is that if you aren't beating the index over a long period, there's no point in doing all that mental gymnastics for a worse result. Just sit on your arse like Bobdn and enjoy profits better than the vast majority of investors.

not as easy as you suggest. your falling for the financial advisor trick off time in the mmarket in an index will give you 8 - 9% compounded. its a fake news by the industry.
it depends on when you enter the index and your timeframe.

[causecelebre]

smashed it again. stock split opens stock up to more demand too.

yeah great quarter. Beats all round. Guidance excellent on the back of the Blackwell chips. Over $1000 share as I write this

[ValueNZ]

not as easy as you suggest. your falling for the financial advisor trick off time in the mmarket in an index will give you 8 - 9% compounded. its a fake news by the industry.
it depends on when you enter the index and your timeframe.
If you're using a financial advisor you can automatically take 1-2% P.A off your CAGR.

The longer you're in the index, the closer you'll get to the indexes long term return. This is not fake news, this is very basic math and statistics.

[bull....]

I think the majority of investors have access to fractional shares, so there shouldn't be any difference at all.

But then again your average investor might view it as "smaller number = more shares!!1! = cheaper" and irrationally bid up the price more.

you should be studing nvidia from your value perspective to work out where you went wrong in your thinking that OCA is superior to nvidia in growth outlook based on your anaylsis. your $1000 per mth in nvidia would have made you much more money than 1000 IN OCA.
I recall you suggested nvidia was way overvalued at a much lower price.

[Daytr]

If you can't see it mate then there's no hope

OK out of boredom, I happy to let that mystery go.

[Daytr]

The point is that if you aren't beating the index over a long period, there's no point in doing all that mental gymnastics for a worse result. Just sit on your arse like Bobdn and enjoy profits better than the vast majority of investors.

No the point is neither you or SailorRob understand trading & probably shouldn't be commenting.
This same argument has been presented over & over, so why do you think there will be a different result this time?
Isn't that the definition of a fool?

[Leemsip]

I think he is getting at the ongoing spat between SR and yourself daytr. Dont rise to any bait, stay in your lane, ignore the jibes....
We all suffer when you respond, have to read the back and forth drivel...

[Daytr]

I think he is getting at the ongoing spat between SR and yourself daytr. Dont rise to any bait, stay in your lane, ignore the jibes....
We all suffer when you respond, have to read the back and forth drivel...

Fair enough. Been laid up with a serious injury for the last month or two so I get a bit bored at times. Cheers Daytr

[ValueNZ]

you should be studing nvidia from your value perspective to work out where you went wrong in your thinking that OCA is superior to nvidia in growth outlook based on your anaylsis. your $1000 per mth in nvidia would have made you much more money than 1000 IN OCA.
I recall you suggested nvidia was way overvalued at a much lower price.
I suggest re-reading what I actually posted bull. Yes I called it overvalued. I stand by that statement today.

No doubt it's an amazing company that I'd love to own shares in at the right price, but no way am I willing to pay 2.5 trillion USD for a company earning less than $100 billion in revenue. No way can I (or anyone) predict Nvidia's revenue growth, and margins 10-20 years out, which is likely what is required to justify such a valuation. NVIDIA as an already large company needs to have revenue growth, and margins better than any other company in the world in order for someone to make even an average return at this price.

[ValueNZ]

No the point is neither you or SailorRob understand trading & probably shouldn't be commenting.
This same argument has been presented over & over, so why do you think there will be a different result this time?
Isn't that the definition of a fool?
My definition of a fool is as follows:

One who, when presented with two opportunities, chooses the one that requires a high level of effort whilst also promising a lower expected return than the other.

[SailorRob]

I suggest re-reading what I actually posted bull. Yes I called it overvalued. I stand by that statement today.

No doubt it's an amazing company that I'd love to own shares in at the right price, but no way am I willing to pay 2.5 trillion USD for a company earning less than $100 billion in revenue. No way can I (or anyone) predict Nvidia's revenue growth, and margins 10-20 years out, which is likely what is required to justify such a valuation. NVIDIA as an already large company needs to have revenue growth, and margins better than any other company in the world in order for someone to make even an average return at this price.

Perfect response and many lessons laid down here for those who take note.

[bull....]

I suggest re-reading what I actually posted bull. Yes I called it overvalued. I stand by that statement today.

No doubt it's an amazing company that I'd love to own shares in at the right price, but no way am I willing to pay 2.5 trillion USD for a company earning less than $100 billion in revenue. No way can I (or anyone) predict Nvidia's revenue growth, and margins 10-20 years out, which is likely what is required to justify such a valuation. NVIDIA as an already large company needs to have revenue growth, and margins better than any other company in the world in order for someone to make even an average return at this price.

bit short sighted there

if the ai market compounds at say 25% per annum then nvidia earnings could soar 100s of % more over the yrs considering its dominant position. stock might be very cheap still

OCA on the other hand market might grow in single digits and oca doews not have a dominant position.

nvidia wins hands down

[causecelebre]

OK out of boredom, I happy to let that mystery go.

@Daytr See below. Sorry you haven't been feeling well. Thanks Leemsip. It will just end up in another ban for someone


I think he is getting at the ongoing spat between SR and yourself daytr. Dont rise to any bait, stay in your lane, ignore the jibes....
We all suffer when you respond, have to read the back and forth drivel...

[Daytr]

@Daytr See below. Sorry you haven't been feeling well. Thanks Leemsip. It will just end up in another ban for someone

All good & thanks. Achilles rupture. Through the worst of it.
All the best

[SailorRob]

bit short sighted there

if the ai market compounds at say 25% per annum then nvidia earnings could soar 100s of % more over the yrs considering its dominant position. stock might be very cheap still

OCA on the other hand market might grow in single digits and oca doews not have a dominant position.

nvidia wins hands down

Yeah I agree BullS

Nividia in a hyper competitive industry could easily become a massive part of the entire US economy

Why can't people see this

[SailorRob]

I don't care. As I have said many times, trading is just one tool I use.

What makes me more than smile, laugh, is that you think there is only one way to make money.
And that you spend so much time defending your insecurities.
Now that is hilarious & a bit sad.

The answer is, No.

[bull....]

green energy rush is on in NZ

Resources Minister Shane Jones announces plan to double export earnings from mining, says industry is 'back in business'


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2024/05/resources-minister-shane-jones-announces-plan-to-double-export-earnings-from-mining-says-industry-is-back-in-business.html


The Draft Minerals Strategy for New Zealand to 2040, which is now open for consultation, proposes producing a critical minerals list for New Zealand and undertaking a detailed stock take of the country's known mineral potential

cool we need something other than cows to make NZ wealth , esp with fonterra going backwards

[SailorRob]

bit short sighted there

if the ai market compounds at say 25% per annum then nvidia earnings could soar 100s of % more over the yrs considering its dominant position. stock might be very cheap still

OCA on the other hand market might grow in single digits and oca doews not have a dominant position.

nvidia wins hands down

'The price is an integral part of every complete judgment relating to securities. In the field of common stocks, the danger of paying the wrong price is almost as great as that of buying the wrong issue. The new-era theory of investment left price out of the reckoning, and this omission was productive of most disastrous consequences'.

1934 SA

[Valuegrowth]

15117https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.rsrXX_2pwfYTBFzJIKEQ5wHaEK&pid=Api&P=0&h=180

[Valuegrowth]

No body knows the market direction.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QETkeRCBkXw

[Valuegrowth]

The Power of Fear: Why Great Companies Go On Sale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_liJyYaCVuE

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXemEDZA_Ms

[Entrep]

The NZX is trash. Prove me wrong.

[Rawz]

The NZX is trash. Prove me wrong.

One mans trash is another mans treasure :cool:

[bull....]

The NZX is trash. Prove me wrong.

very few opportunities at moment , more a hole for most people's capital at moment

[Snoopy]

very few opportunities at moment , more a hole for most people's capital at moment


With a different timeframe I think very differently. After seeing nothing I wanted to buy for a whole year, now I see bargains everywhere. I see similar opportunities today that were available over those crazy Covid low days. Today's market is an absolute dream for value investors like me. I couldn't imagine market conditions that would suit me better, with a war chest of cash I have been waiting to unleash on just such a market opportunity such as this.

SNOOPY

[Relaxed]

With a different timeframe I think very differently. After seeing nothing I wanted to buy for a whole year, now I see bargains everywhere. I see similar opportunities today that were available over those crazy Covid low days. Today's market is an absolute dream for value investors like me. I couldn't imagine market conditions that would suit me better, with a war chest of cash I have been waiting to unleash on just such a market opportunity such as this.

SNOOPY

Are you willing to part with any examples?

[Entrep]

Are you willing to part with any examples?

PGW for one - down 25% from when mentioned just a couple of weeks ago.

This is not meant to be criticism of Snoopy at all (we are all grown ups responsible for our own investments) and I value their posts, but I think even the big dogs of ST have been caught off guard by this weakness.

[ValueNZ]

With a different timeframe I think very differently. After seeing nothing I wanted to buy for a whole year, now I see bargains everywhere. I see similar opportunities today that were available over those crazy Covid low days. Today's market is an absolute dream for value investors like me. I couldn't imagine market conditions that would suit me better, with a war chest of cash I have been waiting to unleash on just such a market opportunity such as this.

SNOOPY
Snoopy, what percentage of your investments are traded on the NZX?

Mostly everything that I'm looking at is far more expensive than a year ago...

[Snoopy]

Are you willing to part with any examples?


SPK (the highest yielding large cap, the yield bump caused by temporary drop in large enterprise projects which has lowered the share price) , HGH (now funded and poised to refine the Australian business arm) , SCT (on the lowest historic PER for 14 years, yet divie was just boosted) , and PGW (bought low, waiting for the rural recovery).

Although there is a caveat on PGW, which potential investors need to be aware of:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2923-PGW-PGG-Wrightson&p=1054092&viewfull=1#post1054092

I have topped up on all of those this year, so far.....

SNOOPY

[causecelebre]

What is the opportunity cost of investing in NZX? While other global markets are making ATH the NZX is in the doldrums. How much did it cost you not being invested in say, the S&P500 from the end of '23?

[Toddy]

Anyone with capital snapping up discounted NZX stocks should do very well in the medium term.

It's just about timing. Go too early then yes, there is an opportunity cost. Get your timing right and you could see eye watering returns.

Lower interest rates, recovery of the rural sector and increased GDP per capita through technology efficiencies and dare I say it, working harder for longer.

Only a fool would give up on NZ. And for those that think the grass is always greener living overseas, then go for it.

[Snoopy]

What is the opportunity cost of investing in NZX? While other global markets are making ATH the NZX is in the doldrums. How much did it cost you not being invested in say, the S&P500 from the end of '23?


Oh I would have been heaps better off if I had put that money in an S&P500 at the start of the year, no doubt about it. But the thing that puts me off the US markets is their dependence on the so called 'magnificent seven'. And some of the valuations in that company set are so sky high, that as the investment fashions change you could find your portfolio going backwards in value very quickly. That is not a risk to the hindsight investor of course. But it is a real risk nevertheless. The other issue if I did that would be that my investment would be cashflow negative as I would fall under the FIF income tax regime.

If you think in terms of where your NZX investments sell their products or services, you can get good exposure to overseas markets, even if the majority, or even all, of your investments are based here on the NZX.

SNOOPY

[workingdad]

Perhaps part of the issue with the performance of nz share market .

KIWISAVER TURNS SHARPLY INTERNATIONAL
The RBNZ's monitoring (T43) of the funds sector shows that total KiwiSaver assets rose to $115.234 bln bln as at March, a new record high. However there was a huge fall in assets invested in New Zealand, now under 41%. Recall it was just over 50% in December 2020, and was 60% in 2008. If it had held at 50%, that would have involved more than $10 bln more invested locally. 62% of all assets are in equities or unit trusts (19% in NZ, 43% overseas).

[SailorRob]

Oh I would have been heaps better off if I had put that money in an S&P500 at the start of the year, no doubt about it. But the thing that puts me off the US markets is their dependence on the so called 'magnificent seven'. And some of the valuations in that company set are so sky high, that as the investment fashions change you could find your portfolio going backwards in value very quickly. That is not a risk to the hindsight investor of course. But it is a real risk nevertheless. The other issue if I did that would be that my investment would be cashflow negative as I would fall under the FIF income tax regime.

If you think in terms of where your NZX investments sell their products or services, you can get good exposure to overseas markets, even if the majority, or even all, of your investments are based here on the NZX.

SNOOPY


At the start of the 2010's you mean.

[SailorRob]

Oh I would have been heaps better off if I had put that money in an S&P500 at the start of the year, no doubt about it. But the thing that puts me off the US markets is their dependence on the so called 'magnificent seven'. And some of the valuations in that company set are so sky high, that as the investment fashions change you could find your portfolio going backwards in value very quickly. That is not a risk to the hindsight investor of course. But it is a real risk nevertheless. The other issue if I did that would be that my investment would be cashflow negative as I would fall under the FIF income tax regime.

If you think in terms of where your NZX investments sell their products or services, you can get good exposure to overseas markets, even if the majority, or even all, of your investments are based here on the NZX.

SNOOPY


Just buy the equal weight SP500 fund. Problem solved.

You don't get good exposure to overseas markets by NZX investments selling product there when we are at the arse end of the world and cant produce anything desirable efficiently.

Or just buy Berkshire which will destroy any return you can get from the NZX and do it with less risk.

[SailorRob]

With a different timeframe I think very differently. After seeing nothing I wanted to buy for a whole year, now I see bargains everywhere. I see similar opportunities today that were available over those crazy Covid low days. Today's market is an absolute dream for value investors like me. I couldn't imagine market conditions that would suit me better, with a war chest of cash I have been waiting to unleash on just such a market opportunity such as this.

SNOOPY


Clearly you are not talking about the NZX. Virtually nothing remotely interesting compared to what is on offer offshore.

[Valuegrowth]

Perhaps part of the issue with the performance of nz share market .

KIWISAVER TURNS SHARPLY INTERNATIONAL
The RBNZ's monitoring (T43) of the funds sector shows that total KiwiSaver assets rose to $115.234 bln bln as at March, a new record high. However there was a huge fall in assets invested in New Zealand, now under 41%. Recall it was just over 50% in December 2020, and was 60% in 2008. If it had held at 50%, that would have involved more than $10 bln more invested locally. 62% of all assets are in equities or unit trusts (19% in NZ, 43% overseas). I prefer to keep Kiwisaver funds locally in 100% cash fund for the moment. I don't follow the crowd.

[bull....]

nvidia on fire after those results .

[causecelebre]

Perhaps part of the issue with the performance of nz share market .

KIWISAVER TURNS SHARPLY INTERNATIONAL
The RBNZ's monitoring (T43) of the funds sector shows that total KiwiSaver assets rose to $115.234 bln bln as at March, a new record high. However there was a huge fall in assets invested in New Zealand, now under 41%. Recall it was just over 50% in December 2020, and was 60% in 2008. If it had held at 50%, that would have involved more than $10 bln more invested locally. 62% of all assets are in equities or unit trusts (19% in NZ, 43% overseas).

Thats quite telling isn't it. The american's tend to invest locally in the 401k's, Roths, etc and that must keep their market on the up and up. Why would you not want to participate in a market that is up 70% of the time

[causecelebre]

nvidia on fire after those results .

Its a Juggernaut up another 7% today. Up 20% ish since the results...

[bull....]

Its a Juggernaut up another 7% today. Up 20% ish since the results...

amazing stuff , market obviously see's incredible value at these prices

[causecelebre]

amazing stuff , market obviously see's incredible value at these prices

Yeah the vast majority of analysts i've read/listened to list this as undervalued, believe it or not

[Rawz]

Hope MLN.nzx hold some of that nvidia stock

[causecelebre]

Hope MLN.nzx hold some of that nvidia stock

seems not looking at the portfolio holdings.

[Bjauck]

Perhaps part of the issue with the performance of nz share market .

KIWISAVER TURNS SHARPLY INTERNATIONAL
The RBNZ's monitoring (T43) of the funds sector shows that total KiwiSaver assets rose to $115.234 bln bln as at March, a new record high. However there was a huge fall in assets invested in New Zealand, now under 41%. Recall it was just over 50% in December 2020, and was 60% in 2008. If it had held at 50%, that would have involved more than $10 bln more invested locally. 62% of all assets are in equities or unit trusts (19% in NZ, 43% overseas).
When KiwiSaver was introduced, many seemed to suggest it may help providing investment and growth capital for NZ companies to remain listed and flourish in NZ. However the opposite seems to have happened, as KiwiSaver seems to drain more capital out of NZ.

[Valuegrowth]

15117https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.rsrXX_2pwfYTBFzJIKEQ5wHaEK&pid=Api&P=0&h=180Going forward I don't rule out some sell - off in over valued hot stocks as well. I parked money in massively undervalued stocks. No weak stocks in my portfolio.

[SailorRob]

Going forward I don't rule out some sell - off in over valued hot stocks as well. I parked money in massively undervalued stocks. No weak stocks in my portfolio.

Name 3 of them for us please.

[bull....]

Going forward I don't rule out some sell - off in over valued hot stocks as well. I parked money in massively undervalued stocks. No weak stocks in my portfolio.

im guessing you brought companies in such sectors as data science , AI , 5g services , robotics , cannabis edibles etc

carg of these industries massive going forward heaps other industries as well with good growth prospects.

[nztx]

Things must be bad:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/smith-caugheys-department-stores-including-historic-queen-st-auckland-building-set-to-close-in-2025-with-loss-of-almost-250-jobs/OMAQXD5OLJAVDJFZBSUL4BBQDY/

Smith & Caughey’s closing: Stores including historic Queen St building set to close in 2025, with loss of almost 250 jobs


Probably just the tip of a larger iceberg on what is happening at Retail overall

[mondograss]

Things must be bad:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/smith-caugheys-department-stores-including-historic-queen-st-auckland-building-set-to-close-in-2025-with-loss-of-almost-250-jobs/OMAQXD5OLJAVDJFZBSUL4BBQDY/

Smith & Caughey’s closing: Stores including historic Queen St building set to close in 2025, with loss of almost 250 jobs


Probably just the tip of a larger iceberg on what is happening at Retail overall

Caught in a perfect storm I think. Smith and Caughey's has always been an expensive place to shop and with all the luxe brands opening their own stores in downtown Auckland and Newmarket mall, plus David Jones now having a presence in the market as well, it was always going to do it tough. You add in the ongoing hassle of trying to get around the Auckland CBD, particularly mid-city where their main store is based and foot traffic must be well down.

[workingdad]

When KiwiSaver was introduced, many seemed to suggest it may help providing investment and growth capital for NZ companies to remain listed and flourish in NZ. However the opposite seems to have happened, as KiwiSaver seems to drain more capital out of NZ.

Yeah it’s a shame alright. The funds have to chase returns but as they all bail on nz it hurts our market. At least it’s still over 40% but not for much longer if the trend continues.

[causecelebre]

amazing stuff , market obviously see's incredible value at these prices

added $500b market cap in three days seriously nuts....

15129

[bull....]

added $500b market cap in three days seriously nuts....

15129

lol seriuosly concentrated market now , nvidia up again today against a poor tape. safe as a term deposit eh lol but with more return some stock market players might say

[alokdhir]

lol seriuosly concentrated market now , nvidia up again today against a poor tape. safe as a term deposit eh lol but with more return some stock market players might say

Just curious how your mind thinks about long term investments...If one has to invest today for next 10 years passively ...NVDA or OCA ?

[bull....]

Just curious how your mind thinks about long term investments...If one has to invest today for next 10 years passively ...NVDA or OCA ?

nvidia hands down. contrary to what many think im only short term trader i do have some long term stocks. longest one held is nearly 30yrs now. but anyway i look at carg of industry long term and then pick stock in that industry.

as example carg of ai industry could easily be 30 - 50 % next 10yrs , RV sdector will be fraction of that. nvidia having dominant position will pick up huge % of that growth. oca not dominant will pick up fraction of that growth

anyway just basic view

[SailorRob]

nvidia hands down. contrary to what many think im only short term trader i do have some long term stocks. longest one held is nearly 30yrs now. but anyway i look at carg of industry long term and then pick stock in that industry.

as example carg of ai industry could easily be 30 - 50 % next 10yrs , RV sdector will be fraction of that. nvidia having dominant position will pick up huge % of that growth. oca not dominant will pick up fraction of that growth

anyway just basic view


What CAGR will Nividia stock price do over the next 10 years from here bull? Roughly?

[bull....]

What CAGR will Nividia stock price do over the next 10 years from here bull? Roughly?

whats your carg for OCA ? As obviously your trying to prove oca is better than nvidia

[SailorRob]

nvidia hands down. contrary to what many think im only short term trader i do have some long term stocks. longest one held is nearly 30yrs now. but anyway i look at carg of industry long term and then pick stock in that industry.

as example carg of ai industry could easily be 30 - 50 % next 10yrs , RV sdector will be fraction of that. nvidia having dominant position will pick up huge % of that growth. oca not dominant will pick up fraction of that growth

anyway just basic view


What was the CAGR of the automobile industry when it was in its heyday?

And the commercial airline industry?

Telecommunications?

The Internet?

And how did each fare for the companies involved and the investors?

Keep up the great basic views Bull, you are a savant.

[SailorRob]

whats your carg for OCA ? As obviously your trying to prove oca is better than nvidia


No, thats not what I was trying for, just answer the question.

[bull....]

No, thats not what I was trying for, just answer the question.
No you prove to us the carg of OCA will be better than OCA. your the OCA expert

carg of nvidia as forecast by analyst's next yrs ahead is roughly 48% doesnt mean its my view

[SailorRob]

nvidia hands down. contrary to what many think im only short term trader i do have some long term stocks. longest one held is nearly 30yrs now. but anyway i look at carg of industry long term and then pick stock in that industry.

as example carg of ai industry could easily be 30 - 50 % next 10yrs , RV sdector will be fraction of that. nvidia having dominant position will pick up huge % of that growth. oca not dominant will pick up fraction of that growth

anyway just basic view


This will go down along with Winners Me Today post as among the greatest in ST history;

'Winner'69 in 2020;

it'll be a 10 bagger (from here) I'm in and I'm sure I won't look like a jackass (or stupid)

Down 99.5%

[SailorRob]

No you prove to us the carg of OCA will be better than OCA. your the OCA expert

carg of nvidia as forecast by analyst's next yrs ahead is roughly 48% doesnt mean its my view


The carg (whatever that is) of OCA will be better than OCA. I think my dear friend Bull, that would be most difficult to do.

And it's You're.

[bull....]

The carg (whatever that is) of OCA will be better than OCA. I think my dear friend Bull, that would be most difficult to do.

And it's You're.

as usual you cant prove anything , all talk when put on the spot . where's your compound calculator lol

nvidia vrs OCA sailor prove to us your OCA will be a better investment.

[SailorRob]

as usual you cant prove anything , all talk when put on the spot . where's your compound calculator lol


Lollll you asked me to prove the carg of OCA will be better than OCA.

Then you say I'm all talk when put on the spot.

Well Bull, you prove to me the CAGR of Nividia will be better than Nividia...

I cannot prove the growth rate of something will be greater than the same thing you are asking me about...

[alokdhir]

nvidia hands down. contrary to what many think im only short term trader i do have some long term stocks. longest one held is nearly 30yrs now. but anyway i look at carg of industry long term and then pick stock in that industry.

as example carg of ai industry could easily be 30 - 50 % next 10yrs , RV sdector will be fraction of that. nvidia having dominant position will pick up huge % of that growth. oca not dominant will pick up fraction of that growth

anyway just basic view

Thanks for your response ...appreciate your views mate :)

[bull....]

Lollll you asked me to prove the carg of OCA will be better than OCA.

Then you say I'm all talk when put on the spot.

Well Bull, you prove to me the CAGR of Nividia will be better than Nividia...

I cannot prove the growth rate of something will be greater than the same thing you are asking me about...

OCA vrs nvidia billygoat

anyway you could tell us if oca carg next yr will be better than oca carg the folowing yr couldnt you

[SailorRob]

as usual you cant prove anything , all talk when put on the spot . where's your compound calculator lol

nvidia vrs OCA sailor prove to us your OCA will be a better investment.



For Nividia market cap to double from here would mean that it would be by far the largest company in the history of the world, this would be achieved in one of the most cut throat capital intensive industries in existence. In all of recorded history when we have rapid tech shifts like this, they all end one way. At a cap of circa 6 trillion it would be a massive part of the entire US economy. The base rates for anything like this ever happening is zero.

For OCA market cap to double will just be a non event, nobody will even notice and it will still be a gutter cheap stock.

Take your bets.

[bull....]

What was the CAGR of the automobile industry when it was in its heyday?

And the commercial airline industry?

Telecommunications?

The Internet?

And how did each fare for the companies involved and the investors?

Keep up the great basic views Bull, you are a savant.

airline industry is forecast to grow at 25% carg guess thats all the baby boomers travelling soon

[troyvdh]

How many people listened to Mary Holm today (RNZ 1515 hrs)

Black Monday ..could extend for a while.

[Valuegrowth]

How many people listened to Mary Holm today (RNZ 1515 hrs)

Black Monday ..could extend for a while.

Dear Trovvdh

Do you mean “Your Money with Mary Holm”

Anything is possible. It depends on the breakdown of the financial system. So far, there had been temporary solutions to get away from various crises.

I was wary about extended stocks. Even if there is a future growth no need to pay insane prices to acquire assets. As history is repeating in markets in a different manner, I periodically adjust my portfolio exception is If I smell characteristics of a multi bagger stock. I also found people need basic things and some commodities in any crisis.

Will there be black swan events like stock market crash of 1987 and the 2007- 2008 subprime meltdown. Crises can come suddenly and unexpectedly. Eg: Covid-19.

[troyvdh]

Dear value.Did you listen to it.
With respect I find your post quite bewildering.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I have to ask did AI assist you in the post.

Re black swan...are you serious ....those 3 events were surely inevitable.

Sorry I have to ask...how old are are you...Im 67 cheers.

[SailorRob]

Dear value.Did you listen to it.
With respect I find your post quite bewildering.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I have to ask did AI assist you in the post.


Valuegrowth is AI.

It's a BOT, we have known this for a long time.

[troyvdh]

Bugger...why do the administrators allow this.....who is "we" cheers.

[Valuegrowth]

Dear value.Did you listen to it.
With respect I find your post quite bewildering.

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I have to ask did AI assist you in the post.

Re black swan...are you serious ....those 3 events were surely inevitable.

Sorry I have to ask...how old are are you...Im 67 cheers.Sorry. What I meant was financial system has not fixed once and for all. Therefore I expect crises. I,am also in sixties.

[SailorRob]

Bugger...why do the administrators allow this.....who is "we" cheers.


A bunch of us here have suspected for a while and now it seems common knowledge. Mostly it regurgitates links to YouTube videos etc..

Unlike ChatGTP though you can never engage in a discussion with it or generally get any sense at all.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/biggest-month-bond-supply-test-markets-rate-cut-bets-fade-2024-05-30/
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-BONDS/dwvkzrxdnpm/chart.png

[troyvdh]

Man I miss Phaedrus and Brian Gaynor.

Chris Lee I believe is doing a stellar job.

[Baa_Baa]

Man I miss Phaedrus and Brian Gaynor.

Chris Lee I believe is doing a stellar job.

Phaedrus yes definitely, taught us the basics of TA which set me up for a lifetime timing the market. Gaynor, absolutely, one of the few honest and believable FA media commentators.

Chris Lee, maybe but wading through the weekly rambling of his cohorts nowadays is mostly tedious and boring. Maybe he should revert to telling the story himself? Might get a few customers back on side or even interested again.

[SailorRob]

Phaedrus yes definitely, taught us the basics of TA which set me up for a lifetime timing the market. Gaynor, absolutely, one of the few honest and believable FA media commentators.

Chris Lee, maybe but wading through the weekly rambling of his cohorts nowadays is mostly tedious and boring. Maybe he should revert to telling the story himself? Might get a few customers back on side or even interested again.


So Baa_Baa, you are saying that you can time the market?

[Baa_Baa]

So Baa_Baa, you are saying that you can time the market?

Sometimes, but not right all of the time. It's a zero sum game, just based on probabilities of a chaos system. Trading the market is not imo 'investing' per se, it's important to not conflate them.

[SailorRob]

Sometimes, but not right all of the time. It's a zero sum game, just based on probabilities of a chaos system. Trading the market is not imo 'investing' per se, it's important to not conflate them.


Bloody funny, was just watching this after our exchange, link begins at the point I mean.

Well Terry, you aint met Baa_Baa!

No human he has encountered or heard of in 40 years can time the market, and he is as involved as anyone in the world.

https://youtu.be/UfNb22qXCig?si=wBzELAqg4m0bH9n_&t=1969

[SailorRob]

From the same video - this is extremely profound and what I have tried to teach Percy who believes the exact opposite;

In fact everyone should watch the whole thing, it's all amazing stuff.

But this particular section and the one at the end about what you MUST do before investing a cent of your capital is the best;

https://youtu.be/UfNb22qXCig?si=vFCF83TwREVoT0oF&t=1172

ValueNZ make sure you watch the whole thing.

[allfromacell]

Bugger...why do the administrators allow this.....who is "we" cheers.

There is essentially no moderation on this forum unfortunately, bit of a free for all including our resident bot.

[ValueNZ]

Bloody funny, was just watching this after our exchange, link begins at the point I mean.

Well Terry, you aint met Baa_Baa!

No human he has encountered or heard of in 40 years can time the market, and he is as involved as anyone in the world.

https://youtu.be/UfNb22qXCig?si=wBzELAqg4m0bH9n_&t=1969
What do you mean you can't time the market? Just look at all the worlds greatest economists investing track record.

Oh wait.

[causecelebre]

Man I miss Phaedrus and Brian Gaynor.

Chris Lee I believe is doing a stellar job.

I read with interest C. Lee's latest "Taking Stock". Love a bit of confirmation bias. To summarise:

* The NZX has well underperformed compared to other index's. Especially, when considered its recorded as a gross index
* NZ investor's are investing offshore
* Investment in NZ is handcuffed to out economy and allocation decisions based on policies and leadership. Offshore investment has dwindled. Debt has traditionally attract 60% offshore investment. Down to 20% currently
* The world does not applaud our lack of capital gains tax
* NZ headwinds are strong, not least because policies may be resisted because of social dysfunction and a Wellington cabal with a social ideology that is not attractive to foreign investment

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/newsletter-archives-view&list=2&month=May&year=2024

[SailorRob]

What do you mean you can't time the market? Just look at all the worlds greatest economists investing track record.

Oh wait.

But they don't know TA.

If Baa_Baa can prove any slight edge he has with timing, Terry Smith would hire him tomorrow, starting on at least 10 million GBP plus bonuses.

[alokdhir]

Was thinking if this AI thingy works out like expected ...it will seriously undermine the human labour value thus countries like China / India etc which are relying heavily on their human resources for progress will have difficult time ahead .... If any company can fulfil its business with less people ...it will surely choose that option ...similarly if any factory can produce equivalent goods with much lesser human labour then that will be the way to go .

China progressed by being world's factory and India being world's back office ...but if AI can do then why involve China or India or even humans

AI will need electricity / energy and raw materials ....electric companies and resources ...Australia for hard commodities and NZ for softer

In long run AI is big threat to labour rich countries ...thus to their economies .

[Panda-NZ-]

China progressed by being world's factory and India being world's back office ...but if AI can do then why involve China or India or even humans


Hard to replace manufacturing with AI so china will do better (though have a crippling aging population issue). India yes will likely have major disruption.

Those on employment contracts that are hard to terminate may be protected (we saw how easy it was for US tech workers to be fired, it wouldn't happen in europe).

[causecelebre]

Hard to replace manufacturing with AI so china will do better (though have a crippling aging population issue). India yes will likely have major disruption.

Those on employment contracts that are hard to terminate may be protected (we saw how easy it was for US tech workers to be fired, it wouldn't happen in europe).

bare in mind one of the nascent use cases for AI is robots. Robots will be even more prevalent replacing manual labour.

[alokdhir]

All know AI will have extensive use in factory automation and controls ...thus China is actually more at danger end then anyone else ...moreover they have a very export dependent economy unlike India

[SailorRob]

I don't really follow this stuff, but wasn't yesterday a massive day on the NZX?

Like the biggest maybe in years, or up there?

Thought people would be talking about it.

[thedrunkfish]

Yes, Tiwai Point deal reached. Massive day for MEL NWF and MCY.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes, Tiwai Point deal reached. Massive day for MEL NWF and MCY.Thank you. One good thing is both food and energy stocks are suited for all types of macroeconomic situations. After getting experience in all types of situations I got more exposure to global companies which produce basic things when they were massively undervalued. Good time to go against the crowd and pick real winners. I just want to sit and wait for the next 5 to 10 years. Currently NZ energy stocks are bit expensive but still has more room to go up.

[bull....]

bull the legend
new berkshire share holder in brk.a
paid 15000
now 631k :t_up: time to retire

[SailorRob]

bull the legend
new berkshire share holder in brk.a
paid 15000
now 631k :t_up: time to retire


I think you'll be working until you drop myself.

Perhaps if you followed the advice of the Sailor and actually bought Berkshire from 180 through 280 and borrowed money to do so, then you'd actually be a legend?

[bull....]

I think you'll be working until you drop myself.

Perhaps if you followed the advice of the Sailor and actually bought Berkshire from 180 through 280 and borrowed money to do so, then you'd actually be a legend?

this might happen to your stock , rumour of buffett death ?

Trading data provided by Refinitiv shows that Berkshire Hathaway changed hands at $620,700 as of 9:44:32 on Monday morning. And then, without any explanation, the stock crashed to just $185.10

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/03/investing/new-york-stock-exchange-technical-issue/index.html#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Stock%20Exch ange%20said%20Monday%20that%20a%20technical,all%20 systems%20are%20currently%20operational.%E2%80%9D

[SailorRob]

this might happen to your stock , rumour of buffett death ?

Trading data provided by Refinitiv shows that Berkshire Hathaway changed hands at $620,700 as of 9:44:32 on Monday morning. And then, without any explanation, the stock crashed to just $185.10

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/03/investing/new-york-stock-exchange-technical-issue/index.html#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Stock%20Exch ange%20said%20Monday%20that%20a%20technical,all%20 systems%20are%20currently%20operational.%E2%80%9D


I pray that it does, would be the best thing that has ever happened in my life.

But unfortunately as Buffett has said himself, his death will probably see the stock rise.

[alokdhir]

US 10Y dropped dramatically after recent inflation data ...NZ10Y shud follow ...helpful for stocks ...should be good follow up session after electric companies led heroics plus index balancing dynamics ...

[SailorRob]

bull the legend
new berkshire share holder in brk.a
paid 15000
now 631k :t_up: time to retire


Bull, you told us that you retired over 20 years ago.

What's the story?

[SailorRob]

Back before the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco was the stock. The company brought internet networking to the masses just as the entire world took its first tentative steps into cyberspace. If it happened online in the 1990s, Cisco had a hand in it. As such, the stock price soared and — for a brief moment — Cisco reigned as the most valuable company in the world.


If you, as an investment manager, did not have Cisco in your portfolio, you would hear about it from unhappy clients. They didn’t much care that the stock traded at 220x earnings — but only that their neighbors and friends and a guy called Bull on Share Trader were getting rich from Cisco’s rapid ascent and they weren’t.


Envy is a cruel mistress — and an even worse stock-picker. In the late 1990s, as value investors languished far below the S&P 500’s results, one of Rich Pzena’s clients taunted him that, “My grandmother is a better investor than you!” All because Pzena was not a believer in Cisco at nose-bleed prices.


“Cisco has a $500 billion market cap,” explained Pzena. “Let’s say you’re going to buy the whole company. You’re rich and you’re going to write a check for $500 billion and you want to make a 15% return on your investment. That’s $75 billion. They have to make $75 billion every year. They’re making $1 billion [now]!” His client was unfazed. “You just don’t get it.”


David Winters tells a similar story. At the height of the dot-com bubble, he received a handwritten letter from a lady who called him a dinosaur for not investing in Cisco. “There were relatively few of us who maintained the core belief in value investing at the bottom,” he said. “There was tremendous pressure from multiple directions to capitulate.” Pzena and Winters did not capitulate — but countless others did.

[bull....]

How Roaring Kitty’s wealth went from $53,000 to nearly $300 million — and could one day top $1 billion
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/how-roaring-kittys-wealth-went-from-53000-to-nearly-300-million-and-could-one-day-top-1-billion.html


his handle was deepf.uckingvalue maybe value and sailor could learn a thing or two from him

[ValueNZ]

How Roaring Kitty’s wealth went from $53,000 to nearly $300 million — and could one day top $1 billion


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/how-roaring-kittys-wealth-went-from-53000-to-nearly-300-million-and-could-one-day-top-1-billion.html


his handle was deepf.uckingvalue maybe value and sailor could learn a thing or two from him
Buy call options in a damn near bankrupt company and shill it on reddit?

Those guys on reddit are degenerate gamblers. Some of them are bound to do stupid things and win massively.

I don't spend much time on there but sometimes I go for a laugh, like yesterday I saw multiple people who placed market orders for BRK.A stock during the nyse glitch which got filled about 100k above the current market price. Mind you these people had like $500 in their account and managed to lose 100k :scared:. No clue who will end up fronting that bill...

[Rawz]

How Roaring Kitty’s wealth went from $53,000 to nearly $300 million — and could one day top $1 billion
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/how-roaring-kittys-wealth-went-from-53000-to-nearly-300-million-and-could-one-day-top-1-billion.html


his handle was deepf.uckingvalue maybe value and sailor could learn a thing or two from him
Wait, why doesn’t the guy sell his sh!t stock and live happily ever after??

Is there no liquidity or something?

[bull....]

Buy call options in a damn near bankrupt company and shill it on reddit?

Those guys on reddit are degenerate gamblers. Some of them are bound to do stupid things and win massively.

I don't spend much time on there but sometimes I go for a laugh, like yesterday I saw multiple people who placed market orders for BRK.A stock during the nyse glitch which got filled about 100k above the current market price. Mind you these people had like $500 in their account and managed to lose 100k :scared:. No clue who will end up fronting that bill...

some of the analysis on wall st bets at the time was way better than even wall st investment bank paid analyst's did. real eye opener how good it was. even some well respected investor commented on this.

[causecelebre]

Back before the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco was the stock. The company brought internet networking to the masses just as the entire world took its first tentative steps into cyberspace. If it happened online in the 1990s, Cisco had a hand in it. As such, the stock price soared and — for a brief moment — Cisco reigned as the most valuable company in the world.


If you, as an investment manager, did not have Cisco in your portfolio, you would hear about it from unhappy clients. They didn’t much care that the stock traded at 220x earnings — but only that their neighbors and friends and a guy called Bull on Share Trader were getting rich from Cisco’s rapid ascent and they weren’t.


Envy is a cruel mistress — and an even worse stock-picker. In the late 1990s, as value investors languished far below the S&P 500’s results, one of Rich Pzena’s clients taunted him that, “My grandmother is a better investor than you!” All because Pzena was not a believer in Cisco at nose-bleed prices.


“Cisco has a $500 billion market cap,” explained Pzena. “Let’s say you’re going to buy the whole company. You’re rich and you’re going to write a check for $500 billion and you want to make a 15% return on your investment. That’s $75 billion. They have to make $75 billion every year. They’re making $1 billion [now]!” His client was unfazed. “You just don’t get it.”


David Winters tells a similar story. At the height of the dot-com bubble, he received a handwritten letter from a lady who called him a dinosaur for not investing in Cisco. “There were relatively few of us who maintained the core belief in value investing at the bottom,” he said. “There was tremendous pressure from multiple directions to capitulate.” Pzena and Winters did not capitulate — but countless others did.

There definite career risk for many advisors that don't invest in the hot stocks. How many a bull run are fuelled by positioning?

[SailorRob]

some of the analysis on wall st bets at the time was way better than even wall st investment bank paid analyst's did. real eye opener how good it was. even some well respected investor commented on this.

Which well respected investor was this?

[bull....]

Tesla likely to spend $3 bln-$4 bln on Nvidia hardware this year
https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-likely-spend-3-bln-4-bln-nvidia-hardware-this-year-2024-06-04/

[SailorRob]

Tesla likely to spend $3 bln-$4 bln on Nvidia hardware this year
https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-likely-spend-3-bln-4-bln-nvidia-hardware-this-year-2024-06-04/

4 billion REVENUE for a 3 trillion dollar company.

Awesome

[bull....]

4 billion REVENUE for a 3 trillion dollar company.

Awesome

yes really awesome this was a small order by musk wait till he sets up on the moon :t_up:
looking forward to another trillion to market cap as more orders like this roll in.

[SailorRob]

yes really awesome this was a small order by musk wait till he sets up on the moon :t_up:
looking forward to another trillion to market cap as more orders like this roll in.

Are you a current shareholder of Nividia? If so what size % position do you have?

I guess you'll sell at the top but provide no evidence?

And if you retired 20 years ago, why would it take a big gain on Berkshire for you to retire?

[Daytr]

Commodities have pulled back in the last week or so. Dr Copper is particularly what I have been taking notice of as is usually a litmus test or canary in the coal mine. Copper is down 10% + from its recent admittedly record highs.
Gold down around 5%.
Oil down 15% from recent highs, lowest in 3 - 4 months.

USD mixed but generally weaker.

I think we are perhaps going through a transitional period where commodities are forecasting a slowdown in particularly the US but also global economy.

I think it's likely the FED will react and bring rate cuts back to the table & I expect commodities to regain losses in dollar terms.

Also note that China has built up quite a commodity stock, some to alleviate its reliance on Australia as they transition away and for copper I suspect it's also about a forecast global deficit of supply.

[bull....]

Are you a current shareholder of Nividia? If so what size % position do you have?

I guess you'll sell at the top but provide no evidence?

And if you retired 20 years ago, why would it take a big gain on Berkshire for you to retire?

im not that good at top and bottom picking.
Azz actually got me interested in it
ill keep investing for ever no need to retire in this profession or any profession if able too if you enjoy it
i dont need to provide any proof cause i dont care if anyone believes or not
you just need to believe nvidia will beat OCA hands down

you should check out these deep value plays im into

DRO.ASX
ELS.ASX

the future

[SailorRob]

im not that good at top and bottom picking.
Azz actually got me interested in it
ill keep investing for ever no need to retire in this profession or any profession if able too if you enjoy it
i dont need to provide any proof cause i dont care if anyone believes or not
you just need to believe nvidia will beat OCA hands down

you should check out these deep value plays im into

DRO.ASX
ELS.ASX

the future

Just replying so you can't delete.

[bull....]

the future is coming



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cfKc8U4iwg


nvidia on fire , over 1200 now

[bull....]

I think you will find Sport, that the future is always coming.

imagine berkshire stock price if it owned the equivalent % of nvidia as it does of apple

[bull....]

Would be like imagining that you own any! Pretty pointless, as real as Balances 'tropical holiday home' and his Synlait bond money.

balance could double down on synliat bonds at 100% now if he is really confidant synliat would survive ...

[Leemsip]

I dont want to be a SailorRob, but quite a few companies coming down to prices we could only dream of earlier.... this is when the $$ gets made. That COVID pull back in 2020 when everyone thought the world was ending was the best time to buy.

NZ economy in the toilet and looks like no escape from here... Once this becomes consensus we should see some amazing long term buys. Need to property market to tank first to really put the boot in. Feels like its coming.

[causecelebre]

nvidia on fire , over 1200 now

Must the top when Jensen is signing bra's lol

15146

[ValueNZ]

Beat me to it.

I was going to post that image and say 'defo no bubbles here'
Bloomstran's short must be hurting, but I'm sure it'll work out okay in the end.

Scary stuff shorting.

[Daytr]

Canada's CB cut rates.
Could be the start of a global change.
Good for commodities.
Kiwi might have a bit more upside unless they join the party.

[troyvdh]

Datyr...do you mean ...rates falling indicating inflation is under control...

[Daytr]

Datyr...do you mean ...rates falling indicating inflation is under control...

US Jobs data & oil falling could indicate that.

[troyvdh]

Scary stuff...the Dow recently topped 40000.
Meanwhile Putin and Xi are upping their game.
Interesting times.

[nztx]

The Ticker CA$H seems to be doing comparably well on NZX lately weathering winter storms - not sliding downwards, not recording huge losses aside from a bit of interest foregone, not losing 20% in one session, not stopping paying any dividends, unaffected by ditsy & docile dithering Fi$h heads, not suffering from huge losses of NZX spectator confidence & ever useful elsewhere ;)

[bull....]

Bird flu in US cattle has caused concern amongst milk-drinkers. Is cow's milk safe to drink? :scared: If it spreads look out bubonic plaque 2 spread by dairy cows ?


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240510-bird-flu-in-cows-has-caused-concern-amongst-milk-drinkers-experts-say-its-still-safe-to-drink

Bird flu has been detected widely in pasteurised milk products in the US. We asked experts about the safety of drinking pasteurised and raw milk


https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/assessing-avian-influenza-dairy-milk

[alokdhir]

Bird flu in US cattle has caused concern amongst milk-drinkers. Is cow's milk safe to drink? :scared: If it spreads look out bubonic plaque 2 spread by dairy cows ?


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240510-bird-flu-in-cows-has-caused-concern-amongst-milk-drinkers-experts-say-its-still-safe-to-drink

Bird flu has been detected widely in pasteurised milk products in the US. We asked experts about the safety of drinking pasteurised and raw milk


https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/assessing-avian-influenza-dairy-milk




Maybe drink powder full milk of ATM ...made long before bird flu came to cows....also. it's quite processed for virus to survive ....unless u add it in water ...lol

[kiora]

Bird flu in US cattle has caused concern amongst milk-drinkers. Is cow's milk safe to drink? :scared: If it spreads look out bubonic plaque 2 spread by dairy cows ?


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240510-bird-flu-in-cows-has-caused-concern-amongst-milk-drinkers-experts-say-its-still-safe-to-drink

Bird flu has been detected widely in pasteurised milk products in the US. We asked experts about the safety of drinking pasteurised and raw milk


https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/assessing-avian-influenza-dairy-milk


Thats a beat up Bull !
The important bits

" Most of them have had close contact with infected birds."

"However, to date, these H5N1 viruses haven’t spread effectively from person to person, limiting their potential to cause a pandemic"

"Three infections of people working with dairy cows have been picked up by virus surveillance methods. So far, symptoms have been mild."

"These temperatures mimicked those used in milk pasteurization. The experiments suggest that heat may be able to neutralize HPAI H5N1 in dairy milk."

[Valuegrowth]

Still bird flue has not become a major issue. They come and go. Whenever there's a bird flu somewhere competitors have benifitted. I have invested in stocks and gained considearably by analysing bird flu worldwide.

[bull....]

Still bird flue has not become a major issue. They come and go. Whenever there's a bird flu somewhere competitors have benifitted. I have invested in stocks and gained considearably by analysing bird flu worldwide.

no. yet it could ? transmission to humans has occured. just takes one bird to fly here. or is that cow

then pgw ,skl etc be well under a dollar. your probably doing your homework on them already i guess

[Valuegrowth]

no. yet it could ? transmission to humans has occured. just takes one bird to fly here. or is that cow

then pgw ,skl etc be well under a dollar. your probably doing your homework on them already i guessNot yet. Naturally, stocks will go under a dollar when they cannot maintain growth and generate reasonable cash. Whenever there is a crisis there is an opportunity. Only recently I learnt that. My shopping list included PGL and SKL as well. But I avoided as I found another two. After realizing there’re going to be value traps, potentials are remote and unpredictable and seeing danger signals sold before the big drop. Actually, some stocks are still falling. I can see the trend. Only stocks I like is once I buy, I want to sit and wait.

[troyvdh]

So essentially you guys rate bird flu as more of a risk over Putin and Xi ?

Wow.

Have you guys read much history.

[Panda-NZ-]

Vast numbers of people in history died due to pandemics/illness, more than any war.

In most wars until ww2, the casualties were from sickness and not combat.

[Panda-NZ-]

-- double post

[troyvdh]

Panda you are correct.

However I will add trump to Xi and Putin.

He I understand when president (being conspiracy theorist/profoundly stupid etc) was probably responsible for say a third of the million US deaths through covid denial.

[Valuegrowth]

15117https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.rsrXX_2pwfYTBFzJIKEQ5wHaEK&pid=Api&P=0&h=180

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stock-volatility-may-pick-up-in-june-after-cracks-in-the-ice-formed-in-may-cfra/ar-BB1nyk6H

Stock volatility may pick up in June after ‘cracks in the ice’ formed in May - CFRA© Provided by Seeking Alpha

https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB1nysYB.img?w=768&h=320&m=6

If volatility pick up in June It could follow with big market sell-off. I tried my best to avoid bad investment.

[troyvdh]

Dear VG ..I understand some folk dont believe you exist.

Could you please forward your cell number to me privately.

cheers.

[Valuegrowth]

Dear VG ..I understand some folk dont believe you exist.

Could you please forward your cell number to me privately.

cheers.Dear troydh Done.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvwhS39de1o

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-vo76wiMKE

[winner69]

Apparently AÍ and related stuff now stands for Artificially Inflated

[causecelebre]

Yes when the music stops and investors expect a ROI on the billions spent we will see who in the nuddy, to mix my metaphor's

[Daytr]

Fed week. Always makes it interesting

[clip]

Dear VG ..I understand some folk dont believe you exist.

Could you please forward your cell number to me privately.

cheers.

Dear troy please tell us if VG is real or a bot

[Valuegrowth]

Euro and European stocks are weak.It’s going to be very crucial week for markets from this Monday to the following Monday. I don’t rule out some huge selling as well.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-stocks-slump-after-european-vote-shock-french-election-3476872

[bull....]

Australian grocery giant introduces egg limits amid flu outbreak


Coles has introduced national limits on egg purchases due to a growing bird flu outbreak in Victoria

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/06/10/australian-grocery-giant-introduces-egg-limits-amid-flu-outbreak/

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:f06bf83e7094b:0-vital-farms-inc-vitl-hits-fresh-high-is-there-still-room-to-run/

Have you been paying attention to shares of Vital Farms ? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 49.3% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $44.81 in the previous session. Vital Farms has gained 184.5% since the start of the year compared to the 3.1% move for the Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the -1% return for the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cr0VagmhhNk&t=1s

[bull....]

https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:f06bf83e7094b:0-vital-farms-inc-vitl-hits-fresh-high-is-there-still-room-to-run/

Have you been paying attention to shares of Vital Farms ? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 49.3% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $44.81 in the previous session. Vital Farms has gained 184.5% since the start of the year compared to the 3.1% move for the Zacks Consumer Staples sector and the -1% return for the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cr0VagmhhNk&t=1s


yep when outbreak of bird flu occurred in 22 smart investors do research into outcomes and possibilities.would haVE known from research egg shortage would happen at some stage if bird flu did damage
maybe nothing comes of it but better prepared investors make money with these type of opportunity and get in early if the headlines turn into substance.
now that bird flu has migrated to other countries opportunities present there two. 1 example was if you had inghams . asx on your watchlist from research into birdflu you have done yr or so ago fell sharply on news of bird flu on farm in aus smart cookies who brought on the dip made big bucks within the hr.

now bird flu spreading to some dairy cows do we need to do research into if it happen with dairy related stocks. a what if senario to be prepared and have watchlist ready for bargains.

eg PGW or SKL and others in NZ ? of course you have to work out if its good for stock or not

[causecelebre]

Who said AAPL was dead....7.26% pump to all time highs on the back of their long awaited announcement they are leaning into AI and mostly that an upgrade cycle of the iPhone will be accelerated by this

[bull....]

Who said AAPL was dead....7.26% pump to all time highs on the back of their long awaited announcement they are leaning into AI and mostly that an upgrade cycle of the iPhone will be accelerated by this

or as musk suggested an upgrade of spyware. anyway massive day tommorrow with CPI and then Fed. could be crazy

[causecelebre]

or as musk suggested an upgrade of spyware. anyway massive day tommorrow with CPI and then Fed. could be crazy

I thought Musks comments on that interesting. He has a point about your data being handed off to a third party. He also has a vested interest in that he founded a competing AI company in xAI. Tomorrow is important - as they all are. I think the Fed has too many media calls but thats a discussion for another day :) I can't help but feel the market is on bit of an edge around this more than normal

[causecelebre]

Seems we are increasingly not as an attractive place to live for some. New PB for NZ: net loss of 56,500

https://nzherald.co.nz/business/leaving-home-new-record-for-kiwi-departures-as-total-net-migration-falls/YUCHT7NCC5E6LLG5LNKQRIKSXE/

Interestingly, migrant departure up 109% to 17,700. I wonder how many come here as a stepping stone to Australia

[bull....]

I thought Musks comments on that interesting. He has a point about your data being handed off to a third party. He also has a vested interest in that he founded a competing AI company in xAI. Tomorrow is important - as they all are. I think the Fed has too many media calls but thats a discussion for another day :) I can't help but feel the market is on bit of an edge around this more than normal

options pricing suggests 1% move either way possible could be more or less based on releases

anyway time to call it a day big day tommorrow

[bull....]

Seems we are increasingly not as an attractive place to live for some. New PB for NZ: net loss of 56,500

https://nzherald.co.nz/business/leaving-home-new-record-for-kiwi-departures-as-total-net-migration-falls/YUCHT7NCC5E6LLG5LNKQRIKSXE/

out today as well

New Zealand house prices plummet in May, Trade Me says
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/new-zealand-house-prices-plummet-in-may-trade-me-says.html

[Valuegrowth]

yep when outbreak of bird flu occurred in 22 smart investors do research into outcomes and possibilities.would haVE known from research egg shortage would happen at some stage if bird flu did damage
maybe nothing comes of it but better prepared investors make money with these type of opportunity and get in early if the headlines turn into substance.
now that bird flu has migrated to other countries opportunities present there two. 1 example was if you had inghams . asx on your watchlist from research into birdflu you have done yr or so ago fell sharply on news of bird flu on farm in aus smart cookies who brought on the dip made big bucks within the hr.

now bird flu spreading to some dairy cows do we need to do research into if it happen with dairy related stocks. a what if senario to be prepared and have watchlist ready for bargains.

eg PGW or SKL and others in NZ ? of course you have to work out if its good for stock or not Thanks.The coronavirus also led to break down in the poultry supply chain. I, am fully into food sector. Poultry is my top food commodity. Way to go behind this sector is going behind strong companies with good management. Going to read "Hot commodities again". I like this sector because it gives
more returns than tech sector in the mid and long term. People can postpone luxury items but they can't postpone basic things.

[Rawz]

or as musk suggested an upgrade of spyware. anyway massive day tommorrow with CPI and then Fed. could be crazy
What happened with the fed and CPI. Need your morning update bull. Don’t trust the media lol

[bull....]

What happened with the fed and CPI. Need your morning update bull. Don’t trust the media lol

its a bit foggy at the moment , to many lapdances and beers after a big day and not to mention my sore shoulder from throwing bills at those gyrating hips :drool: but anyway as expected sept on cards my pick for first cut. that mean nov for NZ eh

anyway need go home for sleep

[bull....]

plenty of news in NZ last day about bird flu , you can never be too ready.
good to see mpi taking steps now to talk about dairy cow strategies etc if it arrives. Of course big risk period is when wild birds fly here for migration time from infected country.

[alokdhir]

•

" Our monthly add up shows that consumer prices fell 0.7% in May, with annual inflation trending lower.



•

Pricing pressures are cooling. Monetary policy is working.



•

Annual CPI inflation remains on track to fall below 3% before year end. This could provide scope for the RBNZ to deliver OCR cuts in 2024 providing that the circumstances warrant it.









Consumer prices fell 0.7% in May (ASB estimates). Sharp falls in airfares and petrol contributed to much of the falls but underlying pricing pressures look to be moderating. The softening tone of the monthly pricing data provides us with greater confidence that CPI inflation will fall below 3% by year-end. The inflation fight is not yet over, but today’s data will be encouraging to the RBNZ. "

[nztx]

Things must be bad:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/buy-now-pay-later-operator-laybuy-suspends-payment-service/CH3S665SWZFG7K4ES5H34QIFKM/

Buy now pay later operator Laybuy suspends payment service

[Valuegrowth]

European stocks are heading for a another worst week. Sell-off has deepened in French markets. Time to hide in
defensive stocks.

[winner69]

Some guy on TV says dollar up strongly and 10y yields down (4.2%) is a warning sign that shouldn't be ignored

[Nor]

Usually when shares go down I'm scared to buy more because they might keep going down. So I invest when they're going up. But I think that's all wrong, now is the time to add.

[nztx]

Usually when shares go down I'm scared to buy more because they might keep going down. So I invest when they're going up. But I think that's all wrong, now is the time to add.

but interest rates high, business failures are high, my guess is degree of pain out there is similar with more to come. This is no temporary dip as the waves of Covis wash in (again), but there are still more of those in the depth of Southern Winter. What do Agriculture, NZ Industry & Exports look like ?

What do defaults & foreclosures likely look like glancing ahead ?
Already evidence of pain underway in Unemployment figures, throw in accumulated affects of COL
further ramped up costs - rates, interest, insurance, electricity etc etc leads us where ?

Any domestic sectors showing outwards signs of romping ahead or prosperity now or ahead .. or not many ?

I'm afraid I'm more conservative & not prepared to call it the bottom or all over or anywhere near .. not just yet. NZX & sectors of ASX look vulnerable IMO

The decline in some NZX lines may continue further .. there aren't many still there that haven't reported some sort of collateral damage already or expected to impact going forward.

[Bikeguy]

but interest rates high, business failures are high, my guess is degree of pain out there is similar with more to come. This is no temporary dip as the waves of Covis wash in (again), but there are still more of those in the depth of Southern Winter. What do Agriculture, NZ Industry & Exports look like ?

What do defaults & foreclosures likely look like glancing ahead ?
Already evidence of pain underway in Unemployment figures, throw in accumulated affects of COL
further ramped up costs - rates, interest, insurance, electricity etc etc leads us where ?

Any domestic sectors showing outwards signs of romping ahead or prosperity now or ahead .. or not many ?

I'm afraid I'm more conservative & not prepared to call it the bottom or all over or anywhere near .. not just yet. NZX & sectors of ASX look vulnerable IMO

The decline in some NZX lines may continue further .. there aren't many still there that haven't reported some sort of collateral damage already or expected to impact going forward.

That’s a pretty fair general assessment

[Daytr]

but interest rates high, business failures are high, my guess is degree of pain out there is similar with more to come. This is no temporary dip as the waves of Covis wash in (again), but there are still more of those in the depth of Southern Winter. What do Agriculture, NZ Industry & Exports look like ?

What do defaults & foreclosures likely look like glancing ahead ?
Already evidence of pain underway in Unemployment figures, throw in accumulated affects of COL
further ramped up costs - rates, interest, insurance, electricity etc etc leads us where ?

Any domestic sectors showing outwards signs of romping ahead or prosperity now or ahead .. or not many ?

I'm afraid I'm more conservative & not prepared to call it the bottom or all over or anywhere near .. not just yet. NZX & sectors of ASX look vulnerable IMO

The decline in some NZX lines may continue further .. there aren't many still there that haven't reported some sort of collateral damage already or expected to impact going forward.

It seems a fair assessment of the current situation, however markets tend to look ahead and I suspect we might see a turnaround in the NZX50 by the end of the year.

Just curious, what sectors of the Australian market do you think are vulnerable?

[alokdhir]

Being overly negative when the tide is about to turn can make one miss the best part of turnaround ...if one is investor and not trader then no need look for the juicy and surest middle part of the rally .....worst that can happen if one invests now in good quality scrips like MFT / SUM /IFT / FPH etc is just 3-6 months of timing mismatch ..am surely not talking about small caps with retail exposures ...also bear in mind its always the large caps which turn around and. run for. a while before the economy has actually bottomed. ...small caps join the rally when rally has actually matured ...see the example of US large cap vs Russell 2000 ...our large caps are already off the. blocks and making yearly highs ...FPH /CEN / IFT etc

PS : Reason maybe our local retail investors dont invest in our large caps like FPH etc ...they are controlled by intuitional investors and they are the ones investing now ...retail investors will join much latter when. they feel more sure !!!

[Daytr]

Being overly negative when the tide is about to turn can make one miss the best part of turnaround ...if one is investor and not trader then no need look for the juicy and surest middle part of the rally .....worst that can happen if one invests now in good quality scrips like MFT / SUM /IFT / FPH etc is just 3-6 months of timing mismatch ..am surely not talking about small caps with retail exposures ...also bear in mind its always the large caps which turn around and. run for. a while before the economy has actually bottomed. ...small caps join the rally when rally has actually matured ...see the example of US large cap vs Russell 2000 ...our large caps are already off the. blocks and making yearly highs ...FPH /CEN / IFT etc

PS : Reason maybe our local retail investors dont invest in our large caps like FPH etc ...they are controlled by intuitional investors and they are the ones investing now ...retail investors will join much latter when. they feel more sure !!!

Yeah it will be interesting to see where the signs first display themselves. I do wonder if the very NZX companies you describe already have a high concentration of investment due to their safe haven status and it will be perhaps the next tier down that gets the real wriggle on.

[Bikeguy]

Yeah it will be interesting to see where the signs first display themselves. I do wonder if the very NZX companies you describe already have a high concentration of investment due to their safe haven status and it will be perhaps the next tier down that gets the real wriggle in.

Good thoughts…

[troyvdh]

Indications of residential house price correction are appearing.

The consequences will be significant.

[nztx]

Indications of residential house price correction are appearing.

The consequences will be significant.


Only any good to the reduced pool unscathed out of the carnage so far & ready / game enough to jump in..
might be plenty on offer in a newly reappearing Buyer's Market & sea of high usary rates however,
with so many running for the door overseas, those trying to escape Equity wipe-out oblivion or slow
punishment by ever inflating costs, etc . The waiting buyer interest might be only a very brave bunch, no queue either seen & encouraged by the Gods of Inspired Crisis in recent past now largely absent ..

[Hoop]

Usually when shares go down I'm scared to buy more because they might keep going down. So I invest when they're going up. But I think that's all wrong, now is the time to add.

Nor, wait for a confirmed uptrend, odds of success are bad when buying into downtrends:t_down:..as for "prediction buying" at the nadir, Confucius says "Picking bottoms get sh1tty fingers".

[causecelebre]

REINZ HPI data out today

National median house price down to $770k in May down from $790 and $800 in April and March, respectively

HPI decline a further 2.9% three months to May with Auckland prices down 4.2% for the same period

NZ GDP data out Thursday. I fear it will make for sad reading, especially when taking all that immigration into account

[Daytr]

REINZ HPI data out today

National median house price down to $770k in May down from $790 and $800 in April and March, respectively

HPI decline a further 2.9% three months to May with Auckland prices down 4.2% for the same period

NZ GDP data out Thursday. I fear it will make for sad reading, especially when taking all that immigration into account

Volume of sales has been increasing all year.
At the start of a turn in a market, first volume increases and as supply gets sucked up then prices start to move.

Re immigration, most immigrants can't buy as they need to gain residency first. This is why rents spiked so hard last year. We should be at the start of those new residents, the ones that can afford to buy at least, start entering the market.

[winner69]

Sharon at ANZ says annual house price inflation in +ve territory

[causecelebre]

Volume of sales has been increasing all year.
At the start of a turn in a market, first volume increases and as supply gets sucked up then prices start to move.

Re immigration, most immigrants can't buy as they need to gain residency first. This is why rents spiked so hard last year. We should be at the start of those new residents, the ones that can afford to buy at least, start entering the market.

Seasonally adjusted sales volumes are down 4.9% compares to April and down 11.9% in Auckland

[winner69]

Seasonally adjusted sales volumes are down 4.9% compares to April and down 11.9% in Auckland

I reckon we should get seasonally adjusted share prices ……..OCA would be $1.04 if we did

[Daytr]

Seasonally adjusted sales volumes are down 4.9% compares to April and down 11.9% in Auckland

I would ignore that. Just look at sales volume compared to a year ago.
Cyclone Gabriel was a factor to take into account for sure, but March volume for instance was the highest month in two years.
I'll take a deeper look at the report over the next 24 hours and revert with more.

Winner, perhaps we should be backing up the truck to load with OCA. 🤣

[causecelebre]

I reckon we should get seasonally adjusted share prices ……..OCA would be $1.04 if we did

That OCA chart looks like winter in not only coming but well and truely here

[bull....]

Indications of residential house price correction are appearing.

The consequences will be significant.

yes new lows coming :scared: just like the NZ stock market , breadth is very poor. market held up by a few leaders while the overall market declines.

rest assured though one day a new boom in property and stocks will commence maybe when the great intergeneration transfer of wealth from baby boomers to kin begins in the next 10 - 20yrs may well be the greatest stock market boom ever.

[nztx]

I would ignore that. Just look at sales volume compared to a year ago.
Cyclone Gabriel was a factor to take into account for sure, but March volume for instance was the highest month in two years.
I'll take a deeper look at the report over the next 24 hours and revert with more.

Winner, perhaps we should be backing up the truck to load with OCA. ��


might get 3% more tomorrow though .. an extra 10% next week ? worth the wait ? ;)

Not a bad discount for waiting, depending on what & how long the real wait is ..

With the tide going out daily, must be signs of that deep value breaking the surface some day soon .. or not ?

[causecelebre]

yes new lows coming :scared: just like the NZ stock market , breadth is very poor. market held up by a few leaders while the overall market declines.

rest assured though one day a new boom in property and stocks will commence maybe when the great intergeneration transfer of wealth from baby boomers to kin begins in the next 10 - 20yrs may well be the greatest stock market boom ever.

I suspect we will see more wealth transfer effects in NZ than other countries given our lack of wealth tax and crap superannuation system. Other countries, e.g., US, France, etc, that have death/inheritance tax see transfers occur before the parent's cark it.

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/absolute-plunge-in-business-profits-could-be-just-the-start-of-downturn-economist/NSPCOSIWUVFC7CM2MQSGEXSKG4/

‘Absolute plunge in business profits’ could be just the start of downturn - economist


Interesting penning by an 'independent' Economist

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/absolute-plunge-in-business-profits-could-be-just-the-start-of-downturn-economist/NSPCOSIWUVFC7CM2MQSGEXSKG4/

‘Absolute plunge in business profits’ could be just the start of downturn - economist


Interesting penning by an 'independent' Economist

and even bigger to come

Services Sector Index Drops To Lowest Level Outside Covid Lockdowns


Activity and sales were the weakest amongst key indicators, with levels significantly below the long-term average, while new orders also fell sharply, indicating a strong drop-off in demand

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2406/S00263/services-sector-index-drops-to-lowest-level-outside-covid-lockdowns.htm

should see some big company downgrades come later this yr and early next yr

[nztx]

and even bigger to come

Services Sector Index Drops To Lowest Level Outside Covid Lockdowns


Activity and sales were the weakest amongst key indicators, with levels significantly below the long-term average, while new orders also fell sharply, indicating a strong drop-off in demand

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2406/S00263/services-sector-index-drops-to-lowest-level-outside-covid-lockdowns.htm

should see some big company downgrades come later this yr and early next yr


Pretty ominous sort of outlook - isn't it ?

[allfromacell]

Don't forget bad news is good news nowadays. Cuts on the way, stocks usually bounce before economic conditions bottom.

[troyvdh]

Is it agreed that NZ has the highest valued residential property market supposedly in the world.
Given income etc.
And if so ...can values go higher ...especially given the economic climate currently.
In addition I believe there is this thing called "wealth effect" where people spend the supposed increased value of their homes...travel chattels etc.
We live in interesting times.

[causecelebre]

Don't forget bad news is good news nowadays. Cuts on the way, stocks usually bounce before economic conditions bottom.

So true and a rate cut would improve the mood

[Panda-NZ-]

The reserve bank only cares about inflation though (unlike others around the world).

We're in the process of chemotherapy to get to the target range.

[bull....]

The reserve bank only cares about inflation though (unlike others around the world).

We're in the process of chemotherapy to get to the target range.

yep RBNZ mandate inflation only now and there only tool is to crush the economy as they have no control over rates , insurance , rents the biggest contributors to inflation.
By late this yr the economy should be crushed.

[Daytr]

There is so much negativity on here and in the media it's telling me we are close to a buy signal.

To quote Buffett, to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.

In reality, I wouldn't be surprised to see another leg down in NZ which would be the opportunity I will be looking for and that could be driven by a shake out in the US where their markets are looking expensive. I.e the 2nd part of Buffetts quote.

[bull....]

There is so much negativity on here and in the media it's telling me we are close to a buy signal.

To quote Buffett, to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.

In reality, I wouldn't be surprised to see another leg down in NZ which would be the opportunity I will be looking for and that could be driven by a shake out in the US where their markets are looking expensive. I.e the first part of Buffetts quote.

even when RBNZ starts cutting rates that takes quite some time to feed thru to improving conditions and in that time before the juice effect hits , the economy is still going downhill.

[Daytr]

even when RBNZ starts cutting rates that takes quite some time to feed thru to improving conditions and in that time before the juice effect hits , the economy is still going downhill.

Sure, but do markets wait for evidence I e the actual effect or do they typically trade in advance, I.e 12 months out?

[Nor]

yep RBNZ mandate inflation only now and there only tool is to crush the economy as they have no control over rates , insurance , rents the biggest contributors to inflation.
By late this yr the economy should be crushed.

Quite right that RNZB should only care about inflation. We have WINZ to worry about unemployment. And something is wrong, we have thousands unemployed and we're bringing in workers from the Pacific for seasonal work.

[Nor]

Nor, wait for a confirmed uptrend, odds of success are bad when buying into downtrends:t_down:..as for "prediction buying" at the nadir, Confucius says "Picking bottoms get sh1tty fingers".

I reckon overcoming the fear that shares might go lower and missing out would be more of an achievement. I remember looking at prices in the wake of 2008 and not buying, Domino's, OGC 25c.

[bull....]

Sure, but do markets wait for evidence I e the actual effect or do they typically trade in advance, I.e 12 months out?

your guessing when the economy will recover ? or when a specific company will recover ?

[Toddy]

I reckon overcoming the fear that shares might go lower and missing out would be more of an achievement. I remember looking at prices in the wake of 2008 and not buying, Domino's, OGC 25c.

Absolutely. I got caught out in the GFC big time. Kids were real young, too much debt.
This time around the debt is small, kids are older. So the downturn just provides opportunities to buy.

Everyone who gets caught out with too much debt learns their lesson. That's why these down cycles are life savers in the long run.

Now is the time to empty the bank accounts and buy assets. Any company with a solid balance sheet will be difficult to lose on.

[Bjauck]

I suspect we will see more wealth transfer effects in NZ than other countries given our lack of wealth tax and crap superannuation system. Other countries, e.g., US, France, etc, that have death/inheritance tax see transfers occur before the parent's cark it.Given current policy settings, the untaxed inherited wealth will likely ended up reinvested back into residential land - a trickle may be reinvested into NZ listed companies.

Much of family wealth in NZ is already wrapped up in family trusts, so in those cases the death of the older settlor won’t be such a pivotal moment from an estate point of view.

[Daytr]

your guessing when the economy will recover ? or when a specific company will recover ?

Once interest rates start to move lower, that would probably be my trigger, especially interest rate sensitive sectors such as housing.

[Bikeguy]

Once interest rates start to move lower, that would probably be my trigger, especially interest rate sensitive sectors such as housing.

I feel that’s a pretty reasonable view/postion…

[Nor]

Once interest rates start to move lower, that would probably be my trigger, especially interest rate sensitive sectors such as housing.

It interests me that share prices are lower now, when it looks like interest rates are going to stay higher longer, than when they were when rates were just high. And swap rates (whatever they may be), at least, are lower now. (I think). I guess it's the recession.

[Nor]

Is this opportunity to invest in SpaceX on catalyst real?

[Valuegrowth]

Should ignore high inflation when it comes to stock market.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/turkeys-stock-market-success-is-a-cautionary-tale-about-high-inflation

Yet, if you are just looking at Turkey’s stock market, you’d think it’s an incredible place to put money to work. The benchmark BIST 100 index is up more than double the S&P 500 so far this year, making it the world’s second-best performing large-cap index, after the U.S.

[winner69]

Guy on telly can’t really work out why when there’s a new high in the Nasdaq more stocks falling to 52-week lows than rising to 52-week highs ……and that’s happened 9 days out of the past 20.

[Rawz]

Guy on telly can’t really work out why when there’s a new high in the Nasdaq more stocks falling to 52-week lows than rising to 52-week highs ……and that’s happened 9 days out of the past 20.

Time to be a stock picker

[Valuegrowth]

Guy on telly can’t really work out why when there’s a new high in the Nasdaq more stocks falling to 52-week lows than rising to 52-week highs ……and that’s happened 9 days out of the past 20.Not a broad market rally. The big tech is doing the job. It's due for a massive sell-off. I found a golden egg trading at a pe ratio of 10 in Nasdaq. kept on my radar.

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/business-leaders-give-worrying-update-as-consumer-confidence-dwindles-companies-shut-up-shop.html

Media whining has started ....how long will. RBNZ resist ....time will tell ...Nov pivot fully possible ...

[bull....]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/business-leaders-give-worrying-update-as-consumer-confidence-dwindles-companies-shut-up-shop.html

Media whining has started ....how long will. RBNZ resist ....time will tell ...Nov pivot fully possible ...

economy imploding now , bonds cratering to reflect this. market priced in a nov cut going against RBNZ forecast of next yr.

[Bobdn]

@bull. Bonds being bid up right? Yields going down. My silly old bond heavy funds just reached all time highs this week.

Or maybe that was because of the 2 per cent allocation to NVIDIA in this particular conservative 40/60 fund. A little bit goes a long way.

[nztx]

economy imploding now , bonds cratering to reflect this. market priced in a nov cut going against RBNZ forecast of next yr.


interesting stuff .. firms starting to get shaky & falling over .. at a time when Export is not it's strongest - could be a difficult wee session ahead :)

How's the local fiat holding up against the foreign coins .. still asleep or just starting to stir ?

bound to be an increasing queue of captive residential owners starting to scream more loudly soon against the approaching ravages

[troyvdh]

I agree bull...it will not be pretty.
As Warren said "you discover who is not wearing togs when the tide goes out".
Thats the kiwi version.

[bull....]

@bull. Bonds being bid up right? My silly old bond heavy funds just reached all time highs this week.

yep been buying bonds myself last yr in the hope of good rates + cap gain

[Bobdn]

Excellent. Hopefully it will work out. If I had cash I'd be tempted myself.

In theory maybe my dividend aristocrats might start working as well. Compare and contrast Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund vs it's Dividend Aristocrat Fund. I have both but wish I had only one.

[bull....]

Excellent. Hopefully it will work out. If I had cash I'd be tempted myself.

In theory maybe my dividend aristocrats might start working as well. Compare and contrast Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund vs it's Dividend Aristocrat Fund. I have both but wish I had only one.

your onto it

started slowly building my own div aristocrat fund as well on some beaten up nz stocks on an averaged in approach looking to weight the purchases more at the climax of the economic implosion.

[Bobdn]

Yeah I'm leaving everything as is. They'll start working one day. Maybe.

Just checked. So the 5 year returns (not my returns - Ive been with Kernel for just three years) for the Global 100 fund is 19 per cent per annum and the divided aristocrat fund has returned 5.6 per cent per annum.

19 per cent per annum is a lot. $10,000 compounding at 19 per cent for 50 years is almost $60,000,000.

I'm guessing it won't always be returning 19 per cent.

[bull....]

Yeah I'm leaving everything as is. They'll start working one day. Maybe.

Just checked. So the 5 year returns (not my returns - Ive been with Kernel for just three years) for the Global 100 fund is 19 per cent per annum and the divided aristocrat fund has returned 5.6 per cent per annum.

the div fund might have its time when the momentum fund has a negative yr ( could be a big one if the mag 7 implode )

[Jaa]

It is just AI driving the NASDAQ higher isn't it? Nvidia now worth 3.34T, up 43% in a month and now the most valuable company in the world (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nvidia-becomes-worlds-most-valuable-company-2024-06-18/).

The thing is people are working out it is not real AI, just algebra and therefore derivative. Thus the hallucination problem is built in. Sam Altman has a problem with the truth and has oversold what it can do.

This would be fine, except that AI is very expensive, both to train and to answer queries. Lot of effort now going into more efficient models like GTP4o and caching which need less hardware. Sure the models become a bit less accurate but since you can't rely upon them to be 100% accurate anyway who cares.

Andriy Burkov's twitter (https://twitter.com/burkov) makes for interesting reading.

IFT seems to be running into this trap, why would anyone use data centres in Aus/NZ for AI where it costs (way) more to do so?

Pretty near the peak of the bubble IMO.

[Leemsip]

What stonks you looking at bull? For me SKC is the no brainer at the bottom

[troyvdh]

Sorry leemsip.
"stonks" a concentrated artillery bombardment.
Much like the NZ sharemarket eh at present.

[Daytr]

It is just AI driving the NASDAQ higher isn't it? Nvidia now worth 3.34T, up 43% in a month and now the most valuable company in the world (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/nvidia-becomes-worlds-most-valuable-company-2024-06-18/).

The thing is people are working out it is not real AI, just algebra and therefore derivative. Thus the hallucination problem is built in. Sam Altman has a problem with the truth and has oversold what it can do.

This would be fine, except that AI is very expensive, both to train and to answer queries. Lot of effort now going into more efficient models like GTP4o and caching which need less hardware. Sure the models become a bit less accurate but since you can't rely upon them to be 100% accurate anyway who cares.

Andriy Burkov's twitter (https://twitter.com/burkov) makes for interesting reading.

IFT seems to be running into this trap, why would anyone use data centres in Aus/NZ for AI where it costs (way) more to do so?

Pretty near the peak of the bubble IMO.

Tend to agree. Just hard to know where it tops out. As much as bottom picking creates stinky fingers, top picking can get them burnt.

[audiav]

Excellent. Hopefully it will work out. If I had cash I'd be tempted myself.

In theory maybe my dividend aristocrats might start working as well. Compare and contrast Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund vs it's Dividend Aristocrat Fund. I have both but wish I had only one.

My strategy over the last few months has been to reduce (but not stop) Global 100 buying, and start buying Cash Plus Fund (some bonds in there). When I start wondering whether I should be buying Spark is a good sign Aristocrats should be on the menu as well.

[Bobdn]

I know what you mean. Super hard mentally to add to that fund with the three companies Apple, MSFT and NVIDIA making up over 30 per cent.

However, adding all my Kernel funds together I'm only about 5 per cent NVIDIA, for example. And across all my equity funds I'm only 2.8 per cent or half the S&P500 weighting.

So I tell myself not to touch anything and any spare cash (small amounts) I come across I hold my nose and send it to growthy funds via Kernel or Simplicity's global offering. Feels dirty and I don't want to do it so it's probably the right thing for me to do. I don't need anymore value type stuff.

[Valuegrowth]

Everything has a cycle. Sometimes international stocks outperform domestic stocks. Sometimes domestic stocks outperform international or emerging markets. Smart fund managers know how to get peace of cake in every market. As growth stocks are expensive Intelligent smart investors and traders will look elsewhere. Now there are stocks trading under a dollar. Still I won't touch until I see coming turnaround as I got caught to few in the past. I did a small study. One traded somewhere around $24 in the past. Its Downfall is massive. They can go down further unless there is a turnaround.

[causecelebre]

NZ GDP up 0.2%. More telling GDP per capita down for the March quarter 0.3% and down 2.4% for the year ended March

[winner69]

RBNZ loving the Philips Curve at the moment ….we’ll Allie OK

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/analytical-notes/2024/the-resurgence-of-the-new-zealand-phillips-curve.pdf

[causecelebre]

RBNZ loving the Philips Curve at the moment ….we’ll Allie OK

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/analytical-notes/2024/the-resurgence-of-the-new-zealand-phillips-curve.pdf

More RBNZ ass covering. Rising wages didn't cause inflation. Fuel and other imports drove up inflation. Consumption data spiked during covid lockdowns and monetary stimulus then service inflation grew as restrictions eased and the cost or borrowing grew. Wages increased in an effort to catch up the cost of living crises not as the cause of it. Other than that it is an ideologically driven fantasy. The RBNZ is simply trying to fit a model that attempts to justify their engineered lowering of the standard of living in NZ. The rest of the world has denounced and debunked the Philips Curve

[Daytr]

More RBNZ ass covering. Rising wages didn't cause inflation. Fuel and other imports drove up inflation. Consumption data spiked during covid lockdowns and monetary stimulus then service inflation grew as restrictions eased and the cost or borrowing grew. Wages increased in an effort to catch up the cost of living crises not as the cause of it. Other than that it is an ideologically driven fantasy. The RBNZ is simply trying to fit a model that attempts to justify their engineered lowering of the standard of living in NZ. The rest of the world has denounced and debunked the Philips Curve

Wage increased has certainly impacted inflation, it may not have been the underlying cause as you point out but it certainly has had an impact and probably extended the inflationary impact in NZ. I'm not suggesting it wasn't necessary as again you point out people needed more money just to stay afloat, but it certainly pushes up the cost of a latte.

In the last 10 years, the minimum wage is up 63%.

[Toddy]

It feels like an own goal, us farmers working too hard and are the reason for the economic data not flashing a recession.

[Daytr]

Nasdaq breaks 20k!
Now short, we will see.
Small posi with fairly tight stop.

[causecelebre]

Nasdaq breaks 20k!
Now short, we will see.
Small posi with fairly tight stop.

I'm guessing futures not the composite?

[Daytr]

I'm guessing futures not the composite?

Nasdaq 100 on CMC markets, slightly different to the Nasdaq

[Valuegrowth]

Nasdaq breaks 20k!
Now short, we will see.
Small posi with fairly tight stop. It has a chance to go up further. After sometime When a stock or an index hit some price barriers they tend to go up further. Difiintely,they will fall and history will repeat. At some point AI bubble will burst along with semi-conductors. I want to buy tech stocks in fire sales as they are way too expensive.

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-banks-trading-in-government-bonds-sparked-fma-complaint-over-market-manipulation/OWZ76QAY5FGFJEVGXLKEWQQDDM/

NZ bank’s trading in government bonds sparked FMA complaint over market manipulation


Brilliant - the mostlly toothless old mutt gets sent in to sniff around some steam arising off a pile of Govt Bond mutters & whispers ;)

Will it be a peppercorn token, the Court & Legal Costs & a 'Be a Good Bank' card issued .. assuming .. when finally they find a trolley with all wheels intact to push it into a Court in distant future ? ;)

Wonder how much other digging and shuffling went on around the acres of Robbo's other growing pile
of Govt IOU's thrown out to fill his widening gap ? ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

Failing Businesses are being weeded out - Tony Alexander

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/economy-deep-in-the-excrement-poor-performing-businesses-getting-weeded-out-says-expert-tony-alexander.html

Forget failing businesses, at least they work for a living. I suppose what can you expect from a (former?) bank economist.

NZ desperately needs cheaper residential housing.

[kiora]

"Nvidia’s surge reveals a pitfall of passive investing: Morning Brief"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-surge-reveals-a-pitfall-of-passive-investing-morning-brief-100128356.html

Crikes,this rebalancing will be interesting ! TIMBER?

"Micron (MU), Qualcomm (QCOM), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Lam Research (LRCX) also closed at all-time highs on Tuesday, catapulting the broader S&P 500 Tech Index to its own record and bumping up its year-to-date return to an enviable 31%.

But the closest investable match — the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) — is underperforming its tech sector benchmark by over 10 percentage points this year."



"After the close Friday, the XLK ETF will be rebalanced to drop Apple's 22% share down to 4.5% and increase Nvidia's 5.9% share up to 21.1%, based on Bloomberg estimates."

[bull....]

Nasdaq breaks 20k!
Now short, we will see.
Small posi with fairly tight stop.

good trade

[bull....]

Dozens of empty shop fronts on one stretch of Wellington road as sales 'drop right off'


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/520138/dozens-of-empty-shop-fronts-on-one-stretch-of-wellington-road-as-sales-drop-right-off

[bull....]

Temu, Amazon and AliExpress cash in as local shops do it tough
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/520152/temu-amazon-and-aliexpress-cash-in-as-local-shops-do-it-tough

[Daytr]

good trade

Yeah, worked out well.
Was long silver & copper as well so a very good night indeed.

[bull....]

More needs to be done to offset the loss of millions of dollars in property and business investments to Australia caused by a growing exodus of wealthy Kiwis, says an industry expert

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976523298/growing-number-of-property-investment-dollars-moving-across-the-ditch

[Daytr]

More needs to be done to offset the loss of millions of dollars in property and business investments to Australia caused by a growing exodus of wealthy Kiwis, says an industry expert

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976523298/growing-number-of-property-investment-dollars-moving-across-the-ditch


A real estate agent wanting to prop up the market with foreign buyers. Nothing new there.
It's not going to solve anything, but what it will do is make easier for others to exit and make property more unaffordable for Kiwis.

What really is required is a capital gains tax to put investing on an even keel with income, so its more attractive to build a business and less incentive for NZs fixation with property.

It doesn't pay to work in NZ, it pays to invest.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-banks-trading-in-government-bonds-sparked-fma-complaint-over-market-manipulation/OWZ76QAY5FGFJEVGXLKEWQQDDM/

NZ bank’s trading in government bonds sparked FMA complaint over market manipulation


Brilliant - the mostlly toothless old mutt gets sent in to sniff around some steam arising off a pile of Govt Bond mutters & whispers ;)

Will it be a peppercorn token, the Court & Legal Costs & a 'Be a Good Bank' card issued .. assuming .. when finally they find a trolley with all wheels intact to push it into a Court in distant future ? ;)

Wonder how much other digging and shuffling went on around the acres of Robbo's other growing pile
of Govt IOU's thrown out to fill his widening gap ? ;)

ANZ in trouble in Oz for much the same ….maybe ANZ is the unnamed culprit in NZ

Wasn’t that John Key’s bank ….hmmmm

[Bjauck]

More needs to be done to offset the loss of millions of dollars in property and business investments to Australia caused by a growing exodus of wealthy Kiwis, says an industry expert

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976523298/growing-number-of-property-investment-dollars-moving-across-the-ditch

NZ Residential RE is way overvalued for our economic wealth, but the loss of the business investment funds is not good news. These fleeing folk are not convinced that the new government will make the tough reforms to make business investment for economic growth per person a priority?

Ask not what you can do for your country. Go to Australia instead.

[Panda-NZ-]

Ask not what you can do for your country. Go to Australia instead.

Or become Australia on good terms before we become second world.

[nztx]

NZ Residential RE is way overvalued for our economic wealth, but the loss of the business investment funds is not good news. These fleeing folk are not convinced that the new government will make the tough reforms to make business investment for economic growth per person a priority?

Ask not what you can do for your country. Go to Australia instead.


One has to ask anyone with Capital to invest - "Is this where you could safely & securely put your business investment funds ? "

Or put it in the bank & let the bank carry the risk & can if wherever it gets lent out to from there falls over ..

I think the reports in the media, NZX of recent times, recessionary phases, closures, business failures, etc apparently with worst not all over yet may provide a few pointers on answers

[Panda-NZ-]

I think the reports in the media, NZX of recent times, recessionary phases, closures, business failures, etc apparently with worst not all over yet may provide a few pointers on answers

Things are grim if we take out all the population growth. per capita economic depression?

[nztx]

Things are grim if we take out all the population growth. per capita economic depression?


All the Covid Ca$h looks like it's been well & truly spent up by now .. the party is over .. now what ? :)

[Panda-NZ-]

The 20 bucks a week will apply from July 31. If you are lucky enough to get that and not 2 bucks/wk (most pensioners).