Black Monday

[winner69]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/05/likelihood-of-november-official-cash-rate-cut-boosted-after-march-quarter-job-shedding.html

Whoopee …pity they won’t be here to admit they were wrong

[Daytr]

But I reckon he also said rates sufficiently high to slow economy ...No further hikes needed . Higher for longer will not last long ...maybe delaying the inevitable by 3-6 months max ...imo

Yeah I thought it was overall positive for the market. I bot NASDAQ this morning, I was long gold overnight that did well. Plenty of volatility that's for sure.

Other thing of note is the rate of tapering will be halved. Not more liquidity, but more than there would have been.

[Rawz]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/05/likelihood-of-november-official-cash-rate-cut-boosted-after-march-quarter-job-shedding.html

Public sector cuts: Voluntary redundancy scheme put in place at Stats NZ - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/public-sector-cuts-voluntary-redundancy-scheme-put-in-place-at-stats-nz/U3PWT3WJVZDQ7JLPDFMPNYWRUE/)

Govt going to bring that unemployment rate up to crush inflation and save the middle class.

Personally havnt mind this inflation. Its lovely see my mortgage inflate away

[Panda-NZ-]

Let's hope the NZ govt is onto it with this cow flu pandemic. It should be acting now to stop spread into the domestic herd.

If it spreads to humans the fatality rate could be up to 50% without any steps taken (vaccines, distancing) which is sobering to think about. It also depends on ease of transmission of course.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/26/us-cows-bird-flu-covid-pandemic-global-governments

[mike2020]

I think we're overdue for another pandemic. Some serious lockdowns wage subsidies and money printing would be a real breath of fresh air right now.

[mfd]

I fear that when the next pandemic arrives the memories of COVID culture wars and disinformation means governments won't be willing to do the necessary lockdown measures. There's a big chunk of people out there who didn't believe the body bags last time and believe the vaccine was more dangerous than the disease, how do you bring them on board to fight another even more deadly pandemic?

[jonu]

Let's hope the NZ govt is onto it with this cow flu pandemic. It should be acting now to stop spread into the domestic herd.

If it spreads to humans the fatality rate could be up to 50% without any steps taken (vaccines, distancing) which is sobering to think about. It also depends on ease of transmission of course.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/26/us-cows-bird-flu-covid-pandemic-global-governments

Insert "run over by a bus" instead of cow flu. Then duck your head as the sky is falling.

[Daytr]

I fear that when the next pandemic arrives the memories of COVID culture wars and disinformation means governments won't be willing to do the necessary lockdown measures. There's a big chunk of people out there who didn't believe the body bags last time and believe the vaccine was more dangerous than the disease, how do you bring them on board to fight another even more deadly pandemic?

Yep totally agree with you.
That's the problem when you let the nut jobs run the asylum.

[ynot]

Yep totally agree with you.
That's the problem when you let the nut jobs run the asylum.

Yip,Yip, Mandatory jabbing for every man, woman & child.

[Daytr]

Yip,Yip, Mandatory jabbing for every man, woman & child.

And a lobotomy for those who don't comply. 🤣

[Panda-NZ-]

And a lobotomy for those who don't comply. 藍

Would you rather recieve a certificate for an immunisation, or one for a darwin award.

[winner69]

Bad US job reports ….markets loved it

[causecelebre]

Wow down 90% from March '21 week highs. And 50% this year alone. I guess Buffet loves old movies because PARA's library (CBS, Showtime, Paramount Pictures) is very old. The real world value should be in future demographic and behaviour and Paramount Plus is not a service I would subscribe to. Paramount $931 debt service costs is haemophilic. PARA has some good realty which is possibly under valued, however, that said its Manhatten holdings doesn't mean as much post Covid. Its LA studio, like its IP, is a shining beacon to what once was. I would be hoping some bottom fisher buys it. Good luck to holders and buyers

Finally Buffett realised this was a dog and dumped 100% holdings in PARA “it was 100% my fault, and we’ve sold it all and lost quite a bit of money”.

I hope the Buffett copy traders in this forum have kept up

[Daytr]

Finally Buffett realised this was a dog and dumped 100% holdings in PARA “it was 100% my fault, and we’ve sold it all and lost quite a bit of money”.

I hope the Buffett copy traders in this forum have kept up

That's the problem with doubling down, when it goes wrong it goes horribly wrong.

[Bobdn]

Berkshire has beaten the S&P500 over the last 5 years and more or less matched it over 20 years, according to this article:

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240217240/even-warren-buffett-is-no-match-for-the-sp-500

I'd be happy with that. I don't own it directly only through the usual ETFs/KiwiSaver funds like most of us have. S&P500 plus the odd value fund eg Smartshares US Value (VTV).

Over 30 and 40 years, Brk absolutely destroys the S&P500

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/02/26/berkshire-hathaway-stock-rises-to-record-high-heres-how-warren-buffetts-returns-compare-to-sp-500/

I must admit I didn't appreciate how big Berkshire's out performance was during the last 40 years.

"...Berkshire's 271% return over the last decade and 50,799% surge over the last 40 years smashes the S&P's 232% and 4,213% respective gains..."

Anyway looks like a Paramount sized mistake is unimportant and barely worth a mention in this context.

[causecelebre]

Berkshire has beaten the S&P500 over the last 5 years and more or less matched it over 20 years, according to this article:

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240217240/even-warren-buffett-is-no-match-for-the-sp-500

I'd be happy with that. I don't own it directly only through the usual ETFs/KiwiSaver funds like most of us have. S&P500 plus the odd value fund eg Smartshares US Value (VTV).

Over 30 and 40 years, Brk absolutely destroys the S&P500

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/02/26/berkshire-hathaway-stock-rises-to-record-high-heres-how-warren-buffetts-returns-compare-to-sp-500/

I must admit I didn't appreciate how big Berkshire's out performance was during the last 40 years.

"...Berkshire's 271% return over the last decade and 50,799% surge over the last 40 years smashes the S&P's 232% and 4,213% respective gains..."

Anyway looks like a Paramount sized mistake is unimportant and barely worth a mention in this context.

Agree 100%. However, my comment was an indictment of have fervently some of the fan boys will place faith in a stock purely because Buffett bought it without doing any research themselves

[alokdhir]

Bad US job reports ….markets loved it

Data all over is becoming mixed ...but our past wisdom does signal which side it will tilt eventually ....best case it's a soft landing or not so hard landing that eps get hit very badly ...small hit is almost certain for bottom thus new cycle to start .

IMO ...NZ is the. most clear case at the moment ...rates path to reduction is almost definitely on cards this year . I am pretty bullish for NZX for the rest of the year and next few too

[Daytr]

Berkshire has beaten the S&P500 over the last 5 years and more or less matched it over 20 years, according to this article:

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240217240/even-warren-buffett-is-no-match-for-the-sp-500

I'd be happy with that. I don't own it directly only through the usual ETFs/KiwiSaver funds like most of us have. S&P500 plus the odd value fund eg Smartshares US Value (VTV).

Over 30 and 40 years, Brk absolutely destroys the S&P500

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/02/26/berkshire-hathaway-stock-rises-to-record-high-heres-how-warren-buffetts-returns-compare-to-sp-500/

I must admit I didn't appreciate how big Berkshire's out performance was during the last 40 years.

"...Berkshire's 271% return over the last decade and 50,799% surge over the last 40 years smashes the S&P's 232% and 4,213% respective gains..."

Anyway looks like a Paramount sized mistake is unimportant and barely worth a mention in this context.

I think a loss of circa $1.5Bln on a single stock is worth a mention.
To Buffett's credit, he took full responsibility.

[Bobdn]

@causecelebre, yes true. His purchases definitely move markets, possibly less so now I guess.

Hearing about someone like Buffett buying a stock definitely influenced me in the past. Even now I'm thinking: hmmm Oxy. I'm reformed but the pilot light is always on. I just tell myself I do own it albeit in a tiny amount.

[causecelebre]

@causecelebre, yes true. His purchases definitely move markets, possibly less so now I guess.

Hearing about someone like Buffett buying a stock definitely influenced me in the past. Even now I'm thinking: hmmm Oxy. I'm reformed but the pilot light is always on. I just tell myself I do own it albeit in a tiny amount.

To be fair if you were going to follow the trades/investments made by any one it may as well be Buffett. I am not a value investor and don't subscribe to his methodology. That said, I have huge respect for the man as much his professional achievements.

[Entrep]

Tough day. Gonna be a tougher year I reckon

[biker]

Tough day. Gonna be a tougher year I reckon

As that awful saying goes, ‘Buy when there’s blood in the streets’

[nztx]

Tough day. Gonna be a tougher year I reckon


Indeed .. might be a few that shine out .. NZX is fast headed towards resembling the Covid dip knackers yard ;)

[bull....]

lots of nzx companies hitting new lows :scared: tough environment to make money

[mike2020]

So true Bull, the list of companies taking a dive is alarming. There must be a name coming for this period, like GFC or covid crash. I think it will also provide huge opportunity for the brave long term.

[alokdhir]

lots of nzx companies hitting new lows :scared: tough environment to make money

Yesterdays SPK downgrade made all retail yield stock tank ...even TRA was not spared BUT growth stocks held their own ...this type of market correction was anticipated by me long time back ...FPH made new high yesterday mate

Yield stocks are more connected to local economy thus when retail tough times come like now their eps suffers and downgrade comes ...while growth stocks like FPH / MFT / IFT etc are more diversified ....fwiw ...yesterday KFL nav outperformed index massively ...sell off was very selective

PS : Its becoming clearer that rate cuts coming sooner then latter ...at least nothing to worry NZX will rejoice ...IMHO

[Toddy]

I think the NZX is just a direct correlation of the current attitude of the NZ Society in general.

It's a real basket case at the moment. And when the 'influences' fund managers take mum and dads money they invest it offshore.

Imagine the current level of the NZX if we didn't have the young people playing with Sharesis.

Is NZ in trouble, yes. Have we seen this before, yes. In the past everyone worked harder to increase GDP per cap. Will this happen now with the lazy attitude in NZ?

[Ggcc]

I think the NZX is just a direct correlation of the current attitude of the NZ Society in general.

It's a real basket case at the moment. And when the 'influences' fund managers take mum and dads money they invest it offshore.

Imagine the current level of the NZX if we didn't have the young people playing with Sharesis.

Is NZ in trouble, yes. Have we seen this before, yes. In the past everyone worked harder to increase GDP per cap. Will this happen now with the lazy attitude in NZ?
I spoke with a friend who “invests” with sharesies. They are just investing in anything that has a cool name to it and they invest in the US. They don’t study their investments, they don’t even know what their companies do, it is embarrassing. Plus they have crypto (not bitcoin)

They have friends that do the same. This is one reason why the nzx is struggling

[Toddy]

The NZ stocks I hold are Infratil, NZ Oil and Gas, and Barramundi. All of these Companies earn foreign revenue.

If I had more dollars to invest then MFT and FPH would be added.

[blackcap]

I think the NZX is just a direct correlation of the current attitude of the NZ Society in general.

It's a real basket case at the moment. And when the 'influences' fund managers take mum and dads money they invest it offshore.

Imagine the current level of the NZX if we didn't have the young people playing with Sharesis.

Is NZ in trouble, yes. Have we seen this before, yes. In the past everyone worked harder to increase GDP per cap. Will this happen now with the lazy attitude in NZ?

So NZ PE's are lower than in the US and overseas? Does that not provide opportunities for those with half a brain? If companies perform on a par with overseas counterpart's but investors are putting their money overseas, my conclusion is that an investment in NZ would in the long run be a better investment providing a higher rate of return.

Of course, there are many assumptions in my brief spiel, many of which may not be true.

[Toddy]

Ift had better bring positive news in their annual results and forecast. It's almost like they now have to be the Captain and stand up and lead by example.

Any little negative from them will drive the NZX down even further.

[kiora]

Ift had better bring positive news in their annual results and forecast. It's almost like they now have to be the Captain and stand up and lead by example.

Any little negative from them will drive the NZX down even further.

21/5/24 Could be good buying day?

IFT ,MFT around that time as well?

[Daytr]

So NZ PE's are lower than in the US and overseas? Does that not provide opportunities for those with half a brain? If companies perform on a par with overseas counterpart's but investors are putting their money overseas, my conclusion is that an investment in NZ would in the long run be a better investment providing a higher rate of return.

Of course, there are many assumptions in my brief spiel, many of which may not be true.

Not sure NZ based companies should ever deserve the same P.E.s as US stocks.
Most NZ companies don't fit investment criteria for many investment firms as they are too small & too illiquid.

[causecelebre]

So NZ PE's are lower than in the US and overseas? Does that not provide opportunities for those with half a brain? If companies perform on a par with overseas counterpart's but investors are putting their money overseas, my conclusion is that an investment in NZ would in the long run be a better investment providing a higher rate of return.

Of course, there are many assumptions in my brief spiel, many of which may not be true.

I expect there to be some mean reversion as you say, in the meantime its difficult to ignore the opportunity cost while we wait. Same could be said for emerging markets. China for example, one of the best performing indexes this year, however, before the party announced buy backs and Jack Ma popped up it would have ben hard to place a bid with the likes of Nvidia making such remarkable increases

[Bjauck]

So NZ PE's are lower than in the US and overseas? Does that not provide opportunities for those with half a brain? If companies perform on a par with overseas counterpart's but investors are putting their money overseas, my conclusion is that an investment in NZ would in the long run be a better investment providing a higher rate of return.

Of course, there are many assumptions in my brief spiel, many of which may not be true. NZ loses many of its growth companies to overseas concerns or share markets, so that they can access the capital for growth. So that would mean the remaining companies would have a higher P/E ratio, without being bargains.

[Daytr]

NZ loses many of its growth companies to overseas concerns or share markets, so that they can access the capital for growth. So that would mean the remaining companies would have a higher P/E ratio, without being bargains.

Wouldn't the companies being taken offshore generally have a higher P.E as they are growth companies or being acquired, so the ones left behind generally would have lower P.E. ratios on average as they aren't considered perhaps growth companies.

What am I missing?

[blackcap]

Wouldn't the companies being taken offshore generally have a higher P.E as they are growth companies or being acquired, so the ones left behind generally would have lower P.E. ratios on average as they aren't considered perhaps growth companies.

What am I missing?

I think I am with you on this one...

[Bjauck]

I think I am with you on this one...
Yep. My bad. I meant lower! NZX companies generally having a lower P/E does not necessarily mean there are more opportunities as I think that many of the high growth/higher P/E NZ companies are already listed on overseas exchanges or owned by overseas companies.

Nevertheless I have a home market bias at the moment, “hoping” there has been some overselling.

[alokdhir]

Biggest buyer as well as hirer is going on austerity ...high time ...this will help NZ get over inflation faster then anticipated .

RBNZ will be smiling that its task becoming simpler

No time for fear !!

[Bobdn]

I'm not sure why everyone is in such a funk about NZ shares.

My NZ share allocation, I use Simplicity's NZ Share fund, is flat on the year. Gee, Ive been been through worse. Looks like FPH is 13 percent of the index. I guess that helps.

Simplicity only charges 0.1 per cent of asset value for that fund. That fee is miserly, Vanguard like. I never thought I'd ever get to pay so little.

We've reached the Golden Age of investing in NZ. What a time to be alive!

My overall NZ allocation is 7.12 per cent. A tad lower than I would like but I'm not rebalancing. Its survival of the fittest in my portfolio from now on - no top ups, no new cash.

[ronaldson]

"We've reached the Golden Age of investing in NZ. What a time to be alive" (Bobdn)

And third place in the sharetrader competition too. O for a place in the sun like that!

[Bobdn]

Thank you Ronaldson!

I got 52 per cent for school C maths and have a barely average IQ. Investing is the one thing lazy and stupid people can excel in - if they go low fee passive.

[Daytr]

Apparently fruit & veg prices are down 25% in the last year. However they were up 22% in May last year.
So overall back down below prices of two years ago.
Got to be good news for the RBNZ.

[Daytr]

Thank you Ronaldson!

I got 52 per cent for school C maths and have a barely average IQ. Investing is the one thing lazy and stupid people can excel in - if they go low fee passive.

I got 49% in Bursary maths a long time ago.
But apparently a prerequisite to excel is to
1) turn up to class
2) Do some study before an exam.
Triple fail! 🤣🤣🤣

[Toddy]

Thank you Ronaldson!

I got 52 per cent for school C maths and have a barely average IQ. Investing is the one thing lazy and stupid people can excel in - if they go low fee passive.
I'm proud to say I got 98 percent in school C maths.

I can spot a crap balance sheet a mile away.

But the way the market works is that the sheep follow the sheep. So if you are near the front then you will win.

[Daytr]

I'm proud to say I got 98 percent in school C maths.

I can spot a crap balance sheet a mile away.

But the way the market works is that the sheep follow the sheep. So if you are near the front then you will win.

Unless the sheep are heading to the slaughter house! 🤣

98%! That's impressive.
You didn't lift the William Webb Ellis twice as well did you.

I would be interested in your thoughts of OCA's balance sheet which is subject to much conjecture.

[Entrep]

Bargains could subsist for a while yet

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/127641/brian-easton-wonders-whether-economy-another-long-stagnation-and-if-so-why

[Valuegrowth]

Insider Trading Activity – Follow The Smart Money


https://www.barchart.com/investing-ideas/insider-trading-activity

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adJH-RYOepo

[Bobdn]

https://youtu.be/jJEAtNr05ww?si=EQOyatDzm-nGFBeT

I found this commentary by Mike Hosking interesting. The NZ economy sounds like, and I don't use this term lightly, a basket case.

Is there a link between our anaemic NZ share market and the NZ economy as a whole? I'll have to contemplate this...

[Bobdn]

....there could be.

[mike2020]

....there could be.

You know there is, absolutely. On another note I had a couple of insurance bills arrive yesterday, 20% up!

[alokdhir]

Insurance is becoming a luxury ...my 5 years old cars ...last all 5 years insurance premium went up while agreed value going down ...this year being the steepest increase ...thats the cost of kindness of previous Govt ...as AKL is the main contributor of car thefts and accidents etc which gets passed to all ...I reckon they should try to increase no claims bonuses to reward safer drivers and securer cars etc ...

[Daytr]

Insurance is becoming a luxury ...my 5 years old cars ...last all 5 years insurance premium went up while agreed value going down ...this year being the steepest increase ...thats the cost of kindness of previous Govt ...as AKL is the main contributor of car thefts and accidents etc which gets passed to all ...I reckon they should try to increase no claims bonuses to reward safer drivers and securer cars etc ...

I renewed mine about 3 months ago on my two year old DMAX. I couldn't believe it, no increase!
Maybe they have been ripping me for the last year who knows, but I locked it in real quick.
It's on full new replacement vehicle as well so no reduction in value insured.

[Valuegrowth]

Rising insurance premium is not going to help for the economy and householders. Up by over 30% in some parts of the country. Some will try to find other options.

[percy]

Rising insurance premium is not going to help for the economy and householders. Up by over 30% in some parts of the country. Some will try to find other options.

With no "major" recent weather events,together with increased premiums, the Insurance sector should be currently very profitable.

[SailorRob]

With no "major" recent weather events,together with increased premiums, the Insurance sector should be currently very profitable.

Or one event away from total wipe out of all equity.

Who knows.

Berkshire on the other hand can handle multiple nuclear detonations in major US population centers without the equity being touched.

[Valuegrowth]

With no "major" recent weather events,together with increased premiums, the Insurance sector should be currently very profitable.I couldn't agree more. I was following few insurance companies. Didn't take any positions as I'm happy with my concentrated portfolio. Besides I pick stocks making use of Zulu principle. Sold all weak ones.

[causecelebre]

Here’s a thought. Are higher rates stimulative? The US govt pays $2m per minute on its debt. With higher saving and deposit rates is there a wealth effect for those holdings lots of cash?

[RTM]

Here’s a thought. Are higher rates stimulative? The US govt pays $2m per minute on its debt. With higher saving and deposit rates is there a wealth effect for those holdings lots of cash?

I have a bit too much cash at the moment and certainly don’t feel wealthy because of it. After tax, I would guess I would not be matching inflation and I am well aware of that.

[SailorRob]

Here’s a thought. Are higher rates stimulative? The US govt pays $2m per minute on its debt. With higher saving and deposit rates is there a wealth effect for those holdings lots of cash?

Absolutely, specially after a decade of those holding not having had anything to spend.

Massively under appreciated.

[moka]

ASB offering Productivity Grants. Your business could get a share of $5 million in Productivity Grants when you take out business lending.

https://www.asb.co.nz/business-banking/productivity.html?fm=body:themes:asb-13843-business-productivity-homepage
(https://www.asb.co.nz/business-banking/productivity.html?fm=body:themes:asb-13843-business-productivity-homepage)
Interesting report on Business productivity in New Zealand.
NZIER report to ASB February 2024

https://www.asb.co.nz/content/dam/asb/documents/business-banking/2024/nzier-business-productivity-report-22-02-2024.pdf

Business productivity in New Zealand. Assessing the drivers and barriers in the international context

• New Zealand’s productivity paradox is well documented and traversed. Despite improving economic growth, productivity growth has lagged that of the other small advanced economies (SAEs).1 Productivity in New Zealand is driven by increasing labour productivity, which has been driven by an increasing labour force.

• A number of factors have been found to contribute to New Zealand’s low productivity. Key factors are capital shallowness, or low investment in both tangible and intangible capital and R&D, and low rates of diffusion of technology and innovation and reallocation of resources from less productive to more productive uses. A low level of dynamic capability within businesses also reduces their absorptive capacity to adopt and implement new ideas or technologies.

• International examples from the Nordic economies, Ireland and Singapore, indicate that exposure to international competition and strong, stable domestic innovation clusters or ecosystems are important in encouraging businesses to innovate and grow. This promotes the diffusion of new ideas and reallocation of resources across the economy.

• Successive policies have not increased innovation in New Zealand. This is, in part, because New Zealand lacks the longstanding ecosystems of business, research institutions and government agencies that support innovation in other SAEs.

• The pressing issue for New Zealand businesses is to build their understanding and appetite for innovation and investment as an engine for growth and sustainability. Geographic distance is not a protection from the effects of digital disruption and international innovation.

• Our findings point to three key levers to driving productivity growth in New Zealand:
1 an innovation ecosystem involving businesses, research institutions and government agencies to collaborate more effectively to develop shared goals and plans;
2 exposure to international competition, such as through exporting, which motivates firms to innovate to compete more effectively;
3 minimal policy or regulatory obstacles when firms are motivated to innovate and scale.

• This provides a prime opportunity for banks to play their part in driving productivity growth by supporting businesses with financial investment in technology, innovation and developing export markets.

[Panda-NZ-]

I'm doing my part through using a fintech to lower my exchange fees compared to ASB. :D

[Bjauck]

I have a bit too much cash at the moment and certainly don’t feel wealthy because of it. After tax, I would guess I would not be matching inflation and I am well aware of that.Taking into account the effect of inflation, the tax levied on fixed interest deposits/investments also becomes a wealth tax. It also pushes kiwis into seeking investments with higher capital gains.

Higher rates of fixed rate savings by individuals/households shouldn’t be a bad thing if it provides a pool of capital for businesses to borrow for their capital expansion. We need new tax shelters for individuals and major tax reform.

[bull....]

Jim Simons, billionaire quantitative investing pioneer who generated eye-popping returns, dies at 86


His flagship Medallion Fund enjoyed annual returns of 66% between 1988 to 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/jim-simons-billionaire-quantitative-investing-pioneer-who-generated-eye-popping-returns-dies-at-86.html

probably the greastest trader of the time. who said traders cant make it big time.

[SailorRob]

Jim Simons, billionaire quantitative investing pioneer who generated eye-popping returns, dies at 86


His flagship Medallion Fund enjoyed annual returns of 66% between 1988 to 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/jim-simons-billionaire-quantitative-investing-pioneer-who-generated-eye-popping-returns-dies-at-86.html

probably the greastest trader of the time. who said traders cant make it big time.

Correct, they can't.

Only possible with small sums, they can't compound like Berkshire.

[Daytr]

Jim Simons, billionaire quantitative investing pioneer who generated eye-popping returns, dies at 86


His flagship Medallion Fund enjoyed annual returns of 66% between 1988 to 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/jim-simons-billionaire-quantitative-investing-pioneer-who-generated-eye-popping-returns-dies-at-86.html

probably the greastest trader of the time. who said traders cant make it big time.

One smart cookie. I had a quant guy working for me back in the day. What that guy could do with a spreadsheet blew my mind.
I can't imagine what he's doing with AI right now.

[Valuegrowth]

As markets are going be tricky, consumer staples sector could be one safe heaven.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-proof-stocks-are-leading-the-markets-latest-leg-higher-135138102.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-proof-stocks-are-leading-the-markets-latest-leg-higher-135138102.html)

"Since April 16, around when the S&P 500 (^GSPC (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC)) hit its recent bottom, Utilities (XLU (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU?.tsrc=fin-srch)) have led the charge, rising nearly 12%, accounting for all of the sector's gains year to date. Consumer Staples (XLP (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP?.tsrc=fin-srch)) stocks have risen almost 5% in that same period, while the S&P 500 is up about 2.7%."

[winner69]

As markets are going be tricky, consumer staples sector could be one safe heaven.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-proof-stocks-are-leading-the-markets-latest-leg-higher-135138102.html (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-proof-stocks-are-leading-the-markets-latest-leg-higher-135138102.html)

"Since April 16, around when the S&P 500 (^GSPC (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC)) hit its recent bottom, Utilities (XLU (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLU?.tsrc=fin-srch)) have led the charge, rising nearly 12%, accounting for all of the sector's gains year to date. Consumer Staples (XLP (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLP?.tsrc=fin-srch)) stocks have risen almost 5% in that same period, while the S&P 500 is up about 2.7%."


Tesco had a good run lately

[Valuegrowth]

Tesco had a good run lately Yes. My main concern is their debt level, but chart is looking good for the short run. I don't have companies with mountain of debt in my portfolio.

https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.html?shareprice=TSCO&share=TESCO

[Valuegrowth]

I thought inflation, interests rates and cost of doing business will come down before 2025. It's not going to happen. According to S&P Global forecast, Inflation unlikely to return to Reserve Bank’s target until 2026.

https://thewest.com.au/business/agriculture/australian-farming-prices-almost-double-in-three-years-c-11103209 (https://thewest.com.au/business/agriculture/australian-farming-prices-almost-double-in-three-years-c-11103209)

Farmland prices have almost doubled over the past three years, according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-28/cost-of-living-hikes-hit-glenorchy-businesses-customers/102530312




In short: Small business owners in Hobart's northern suburbs are bracing themselves for the new financial year, as electricity and rate costs increase
What's next? One council has relaxed penalties for late payments in recognition of tough times


https://thewest.com.au/business/economy/inflation-unlikely-to-return-to-reserve-banks-target-of-2-to-3-per-cent-until-2026-sp-global-forecasts-c-11047426 (https://thewest.com.au/business/economy/inflation-unlikely-to-return-to-reserve-banks-target-of-2-to-3-per-cent-until-2026-sp-global-forecasts-c-11047426)


Inflationin Australia is unlikely to return to the Reserve Bank’s target range for another three years, according to S&P Global, which remains positive about the ability of the home loan market to handle even more rate hikes.

https://www.9news.com.au/finance/rise-in-business-collapse-insolvency-interest-rates-inflation-cost-of-living-explainer/ca18acb7-eeba-4a4c-b08c-a060e998847e

A recent analysis by NAB shows there has been a bounce back in businesses collapsing with a huge 30 per cent rise in insolvencies in 2022 after a slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic.

But with economic headwinds placing pressure on Aussie consumers and businesses alike, experts are worried there will be a far higher rise in collapses in 2023 as companies face a looming recession.


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/may/01/australia-inflation-rate-rba-interest-rates-decision-rise

"With hopes for a rate cut gone, there is speculation of another rise before the end of 2024. What factors will sway the Reserve Bank’s decision?

Hopes for a near-term rate cut evaporated after the March CPI figures landed. According to Bloomberg, bets have switched to favouring a rate rise by the end of 2024.

Judo Bank’s chief economic adviser, Warren Hogan, says the RBA may need three rate rises – to 5.1% – to ensure that the inflation threat is extinguished."

[Valuegrowth]

Jim Simons, billionaire quantitative investing pioneer who generated eye-popping returns, dies at 86


His flagship Medallion Fund enjoyed annual returns of 66% between 1988 to 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/jim-simons-billionaire-quantitative-investing-pioneer-who-generated-eye-popping-returns-dies-at-86.html

probably the greastest trader of the time. who said traders cant make it big time.There is a big difference between retail trader and professional trader. Professional trader is as smart as intelligent investor. IMO even intelligent investors need to do professional trading.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7G0OfJUON8

[alokdhir]

I hope all will agree that we are in the last part of rates going up cycle ...so now is not the time to shun companies with debt as they have reached their bottomish SPs ...only need confirm if they are viable still and will survive next few months or a year ...they maybe best buys now ...over geared but sound companies like RYM or OCA maybe ....main point being debt on balance sheets if survivable makes these companies multi baggers of the future

[Daytr]

I hope all will agree that we are in the last part of rates going up cycle ...so now is not the time to shun companies with debt as they have reached their bottomish SPs ...only need confirm if they are viable still and will survive next few months or a year ...they maybe best buys now ...over geared but sound companies like RYM or OCA maybe ....main point being debt on balance sheets if survivable makes these companies multi baggers of the future

Yep overall, makes sense, but there could be a bit more pain yet for some of these companies.
I'm going to have a good look at Ryman this week and see what I think versus OCA.

[SailorRob]

I hope all will agree that we are in the last part of rates going up cycle ...so now is not the time to shun companies with debt as they have reached their bottomish SPs ...only need confirm if they are viable still and will survive next few months or a year ...they maybe best buys now ...over geared but sound companies like RYM or OCA maybe ....main point being debt on balance sheets if survivable makes these companies multi baggers of the future

OCA is undergeared and has the lowest rates on a lot of its debt that any similar company has ever had in recorded history. Higher rates haven't effected them yet.

The combined 1.6 billion of liabilities is probably under 1% rate.

Nobody knows where we are at in the rate cycle, could be another 40 years to run, like the last cycle. Who knows.

[ValueNZ]

OCA is undergeared and has the lowest rates on a lot of its debt that any similar company has ever had in recorded history. Higher rates haven't effected them yet.

The combined 1.6 billion of liabilities is probably under 1% rate.

Nobody knows where we are at in the rate cycle, could be another 40 years to run, like the last cycle. Who knows.
About 2% the last time I calculated it at FY2024 Interim.

[Daytr]

About 2% the last time I calculated it at FY2024 Interim.

I would be interested in seeing that calculation.
I hope you aren't including 'free loans'.

[ValueNZ]

I would be interested in seeing that calculation.
I hope you aren't including 'free loans'.
I certainly am.

15101

[winner69]

I certainly am.

15101

You left out cost of equity ….say at 14%

[Daytr]

I certainly am.

15101

Ok so you don't think OCA would get any rent for their units. Nothing, nada. Seems realistic enough...
Optimistically at the moment I would be plugging in 4% in that $900M+ column.


You left out cost of equity ….say at 14%

Not sure I would even include that in this equation Winner. Up the Wahs!

I have backed total points, so like a true OCA Shareholder I just cheer everything!
Oh except no tries or goals kicked, that would be bummer.
Perhaps I'm not a real OCA kinda guy after all.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmdXJL38H0k

[Valuegrowth]

Yen has fallen to decade’s low.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVSsPXlql18

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fg2UFYBKyO4

[Daytr]

Ok so you don't think OCA would get any rent for their units. Nothing, nada. Seems realistic enough...
Optimistically at the moment I would be plugging in 4% in that $900M+ column.



Not sure I would even include that in this equation Winner. Up the Wahs!

I have backed total points, so like a true OCA Shareholder I just cheer everything!
Oh except no tries or goals kicked, that would be bummer.
Perhaps I'm not a real OCA kinda guy after all.

Worked out pretty well. Wahs always going to leak plenty of points & try and comeback in the 2nd half after the game is done & dusted.
Rinse & repeat.

[alokdhir]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/may/01/australia-inflation-rate-rba-interest-rates-decision-rise

"With hopes for a rate cut gone, there is speculation of another rise before the end of 2024. What factors will sway the Reserve Bank’s decision?

Hopes for a near-term rate cut evaporated after the March CPI figures landed. According to Bloomberg, bets have switched to favouring a rate rise by the end of 2024.

Judo Bank’s chief economic adviser, Warren Hogan, says the RBA may need three rate rises – to 5.1% – to ensure that the inflation threat is extinguished."

I hope u know their is a ASX forum also on this same site ...wont it be more appropriate to discuss Aussy market prospects there ?

[Daytr]

I hope u know their is a ASX forum also on this same site ...wont it be more appropriate to discuss Aussy market prospects there ?

Hey Alokdhir, Black Monday was a global event & what happens in other markets on the macro is relevant here I feel.

[winner69]

The NZ PMI weakened further in April……things looking not that good for NZ economy over rest of year

[Bobdn]

NZX50 has been flattish over the last 5 years, including dividends. Another 5 years and we'll be able to refer to this as the Lost Decade.

I'd be totally down, as the Kidz say, for another few years of vomit inducing underperformance if we get to refer to the "Lost Decade" in coming years. Would be totally worth it.

"Does everyone remember the Lost Decade, so glad we're in sunny uplands now" or whatever. That's an example of a possible future Black Monday post. A bit stilted but it'll be better when Im doing it for real, in the future. Assuming I'm still alive, god willing.

[Valuegrowth]

The NZ PMI weakened further in April……things looking not that good for NZ economy over rest of year Same in other countries too. In every situation there will be opportunity for intelligent investors and professional traders to buy and sell stocks. Right now, there are few crises. They are cost of living crisis, High cost of doing business and geopolitical crisis. ​I go with micro economy instead of macro economy.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG1ntL_6JVQ

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMyMNJWrEes

[SailorRob]

NZX50 has been flattish over the last 5 years, including dividends. Another 5 years and we'll be able to refer to this as the Lost Decade.

I'd be totally down, as the Kidz say, for another few years of vomit inducing underperformance if we get to refer to the "Lost Decade" in coming years. Would be totally worth it.

"Does everyone remember the Lost Decade, so glad we're in sunny uplands now" or whatever. That's an example of a possible future Black Monday post. A bit stilted but it'll be better when Im doing it for real, in the future. Assuming I'm still alive, god willing.


The capital market (without dividends reinvested) has compounded at 1.8% over 17 years to 2024...

1.8%

That's way less than inflation.

[Bobdn]

I keep on losing the "without dividend" chart and have to use the total return.

Where do I find the capital chart? I think nzg doesn't include dividends?

[SailorRob]

I keep on losing the "without dividend" chart and have to use the total return.

Where do I find the capital chart? I think nzg doesn't include dividends?


The NZG is the most corrupt index in the world, research Gaynor's expose of it.

It includes reinvested dividends in the absolute best theoretical world - totally different from other major market indexes such as SP0500.

So what you want is the NZ50C. The actual index that compares with other foreign ones.

[Bobdn]

NZ50C, thanks, I'll keep a note.

Nzg is just the etf that tracks the NZX50 I think and doesnt include reinvested dividends. Appears consistent with NZ50C.

[Joshuatree]

Rice price at a 4 year high!

[bull....]

Rice price at a 4 year high!
cocoa collapsing now . phew chocolate might not go up as much

[alokdhir]

NZ50C, thanks, I'll keep a note.

Nzg is just the etf that tracks the NZX50 I think and doesnt include reinvested dividends. Appears consistent with NZ50C.

https://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds/new-zealand-shares/nzg

As they pay out actual dividends so it has to be ....


PS : Also if u looking for better then just NZG which tracks NZX50 plus pay out dividends ....so for better growth option KFL with DRP will work better ...it not only reinvests dividends but at 3% discount to current SP thus surpassing the brief of NZX50G which SR thinks is not possible ..

https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/

[Rawz]

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/market-news

chris lee article on the index etc

[Daytr]

US CPI due tomorrow.
Should provide direction for markets.
US markets have come a long way on the back of recent job data.

Could be nasty if prices are going up & growth in activity is down.

[winner69]

Jared at dailydirtnap says “Kind of funny that Buffett has $150 billion and can't find anything he wants to buy, but EVERYTHING looks good to the private equity guys.”

[Valuegrowth]

Jared at dailydirtnap says “Kind of funny that Buffett has $150 billion and can't find anything he wants to buy, but EVERYTHING looks good to the private equity guys.”Intelligent investors don't buy overvalued assets. I myself is waiting patiently to buy quality stocks at a fair price while looking after my small concentrated portfolio. Not a bad idea to have some cash as well.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mBcglnjloE

[JBmurc]

US CPI due tomorrow.
Should provide direction for markets.
US markets have come a long way on the back of recent job data.

Could be nasty if prices are going up & growth in activity is down.

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/a-look-at-shelter-inflation-ahead-of-cpi-data

Shelter inflation makes up ~36% of the CPI data,

Shelter inflation looks to be heading higher >>>

[winner69]

No profit warnings / downgrades today

NZX should have a rare up day

[Daytr]

https://www.macrovisor.com/p/a-look-at-shelter-inflation-ahead-of-cpi-data

Shelter inflation makes up ~36% of the CPI data,

Shelter inflation looks to be heading higher >>>

Cheers that's interesting.
I wonder what portion of NZs CPI rent is?
I did a quick Google but couldn't find it.
I suspect it's a lot lower.

[winner69]

Cheers that's interesting.
I wonder what portion of NZs CPI rent is?
I did a quick Google but couldn't find it.
I suspect it's a lot lower.

Rents were about 10% last time I looked

But a shelter component per se is more than just rents and I guess the US way of calculating ibis different from our way

[winner69]

Housing and household utilities make up 27.74% of NZ CPI …as at June 2023 …reweighted every 3 years

[Daytr]

Housing and household utilities make up 27.74% of NZ CPI …as at June 2023 …reweighted every 3 years

Thanks for that.
With NZ inflation coming down and rents having exploded, it suggests that price increases on goods & services etc outside of rent have come right back.

[winner69]

Thanks for that.
With NZ inflation coming down and rents having exploded, it suggests that price increases on goods & services etc outside of rent have come right back.


Rents exploding?

April annual changes were 4.6% for existing rents and 4.2% for new rents

Stats Nz the other day

[Valuegrowth]

No profit warnings / downgrades today

NZX should have a rare up day

First time annual net migration loss of NZ citizens exceeded 50000. Do you think housing prices and rents to come down? Thanks.

[Joshuatree]

First time annual net migration loss of NZ citizens exceeded 50000. Do you think housing prices and rents to come down? Thanks.

spoke to a rental agent yesterday who said there's a big sudden change; she is now having probs finding tenants.

Bull ,Rice is an essential staple of a few billion people and its getting expensive, cocoa more of a luxury, treat.

[mike2020]

spoke to a rental agent yesterday who said there's a big sudden change; she is now having probs finding tenants.

Bull ,Rice is an essential staple of a few billion people and its getting expensive, cocoa more of a luxury, treat.

Yip and someone suggested we stop making as much milk powder and start selling more chocolate as an add value scheme to raise the bar at NZ inc. Great minds at work.

[bull....]

spoke to a rental agent yesterday who said there's a big sudden change; she is now having probs finding tenants.

Bull ,Rice is an essential staple of a few billion people and its getting expensive, cocoa more of a luxury, treat.

chocolate is an essential in my life

[stoploss]

First time annual net migration loss of NZ citizens exceeded 50000. Do you think housing prices and rents to come down? Thanks.

That was 50,000 NZ citizens out ,I thought there were 130,000 immigrants that came in on the other side of this . So basically a lot more renters.
Most probably are not in a position to buy so property with Interest Rates where they are currently is going sideways imo.

[Valuegrowth]

[QUOTE=bull....;1052060]chocolate is an essential in my life[/QUOTE! NZ Whittakers are one of the best chocolates in the world along with few Swiss chocolates. There is a big difference between quality chocolates and some brands with mass production. When I travel I fill my travelling bag with high quality nz chocolates. Those days I used to buy chocolate brands with mass production. Whittake should think about listing and expanding export market.

[mike2020]

Yes and Fonterra should abandon A2 and breed more brown cows....

[bull....]

[QUOTE=bull....;1052060]chocolate is an essential in my life[/QUOTE! NZ Whittakers are one of the best chocolates in the world along with few Swiss chocolates. There is a big difference between quality chocolates and some brands with mass production. When I travel I fill my travelling bag with high quality nz chocolates. Those days I used to buy chocolate brands with mass production. Whittake should think about listing and expanding export market.

yes lind easter rabbits are one of my favourites. i brought 26 last easter to eat my way thru

[bull....]

No profit warnings / downgrades today

NZX should have a rare up day

just well you not trader eh. anyway only about 8 stocks holding the main index up. you might call it fake news as under the hood last 3 mths most stocks are getting savaged. esp small cap index in nz down 15%

[Daytr]

Rents exploding?

April annual changes were 4.6% for existing rents and 4.2% for new rents

Stats Nz the other day

Where I live rents would be around 10 - 15% in the last year or so. Admittedly they don't seem to have moved in the last 3 months or so.

[alokdhir]

Retail investors have really capitulated with no buyers in TRA till $ 3.50 !! SPK at $ 4.25 and PGW at $ 1.54 ...see its 52 week high of $ 4.38 to current SP is not funny anymore ....

[winner69]

That was 50,000 NZ citizens out ,I thought there were 130,000 immigrants that came in on the other side of this . So basically a lot more renters.
Most probably are not in a position to buy so property with Interest Rates where they are currently is going sideways imo.

Yes net 52,000 Kiwis left last 12 months …..net 163,000 non-Kiwis arrived
S

[bull....]

aus budget was pretty generous to everyone. might make more kiwi's leave and with less coming in less demand for housing and retail spending etc. NZ might have a hard landing maybe thats what being priced in by the stockmarket a depression :scared: in corporate profits

[Entrep]

Retail investors have really capitulated with no buyers in TRA till $ 3.50 !! SPK at $ 4.25 and PGW at $ 1.54 ...see its 52 week high of $ 4.38 to current SP is not funny anymore ....

NZX is completely cooked!

Of that list I have SPK at slightly underwater and rekt on PGW (only bought a week or 2 ago!).

Waiting patiently for TRA to come down.

[Jaa]

just well you not trader eh. anyway only about 8 stocks holding the main index up. you might call it fake news as under the hood last 3 mths most stocks are getting savaged. esp small cap index in nz down 15%

FPH, MEL, CEN, ATM in the top 20 and who else?

[bull....]

FPH, MEL, CEN, ATM in the top 20 and who else?

wbc
gtk
vgl
nzx
chi
ift
anz

fph has the biggest weight in the index up 19% last 3 mths a2 is up 25% and is in the top 10 by weight so whole market is looking way better than it should to concentration in a few stocks. NZ mag 8 lol

actually you could argue maybe its because most there business off-shore or they have dominant positions ?

[nztx]

Don't tell anyone - but these Stonks seem to be getting popular again -

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gamestop-and-amc-shares-surge-for-second-day-in-meme-stock-revival/CSNLHQ3ASZDIHOVYMQTDOK46DM/

GameStop and AMC shares surge for second day in ‘meme stock’ revival


Any guesses on which large Capital Funds might lose their pants on shorts this time round ? :)

[alokdhir]

By the way US stocks and bonds are behaving just before April CPI ...most likely its on target or not too much variation from consensus ...will know in few hours !!

[Bobdn]

@alokdhir, yes it's exciting. I shouldnt find it so interesting but I do. Its much more interesting than sports that's for sure.

One good thing about being highly diversified across world markets is that from 10am to 8am the next day, ones net worth is changing by the minute. I just look and don't touch, mind.

Its a lot more fun than the pokies.

[moose]

actually you could argue maybe its because most there business off-shore or they have dominant positions ?[/QUOTE]

I think that this is very valid - perhaps not the right thread but this is why KFL is not the dog that many commentators think it is - 49% of KFL is FPH/MFT/IFT and these 3 overall probably have about 80% of their business offshore (and in the case of IFT much of the NZ business is effectively offshore funded e.g. datacentres). On top of that fully-imputed div and 33% tax rate (well the portion that is not capital gain) as well as a healthy discount to nta. KFL share price up 1c YTD nta up 3c and a dividend of 2% nta paid too.

[alokdhir]

actually you could argue maybe its because most there business off-shore or they have dominant positions ?

I think that this is very valid - perhaps not the right thread but this is why KFL is not the dog that many commentators think it is - 49% of KFL is FPH/MFT/IFT and these 3 overall probably have about 80% of their business offshore (and in the case of IFT much of the NZ business is effectively offshore funded e.g. datacentres). On top of that fully-imputed div and 33% tax rate (well the portion that is not capital gain) as well as a healthy discount to nta. KFL share price up 1c YTD nta up 3c and a dividend of 2% nta paid too.[/QUOTE]

Could not agree more and I cud not have said it better ...KFL for me is the safest and best buy on NZX ...ATM / EBO / VGL are also their holdings not nz economy oriented companies :t_up:

[alokdhir]

By the way US stocks and bonds are behaving just before April CPI ...most likely its on target or not too much variation from consensus ...will know in few hours !!

Bang on forecasts on every count ...S&P 500 up 50 and 10Y down 10bips ...wow its easy ...no wonder Bull is creaming it and enjoying whitkers everyday :p

[ynot]

I think that this is very valid - perhaps not the right thread but this is why KFL is not the dog that many commentators think it is - 49% of KFL is FPH/MFT/IFT and these 3 overall probably have about 80% of their business offshore (and in the case of IFT much of the NZ business is effectively offshore funded e.g. datacentres). On top of that fully-imputed div and 33% tax rate (well the portion that is not capital gain) as well as a healthy discount to nta. KFL share price up 1c YTD nta up 3c and a dividend of 2% nta paid too.

Could not agree more and I cud not have said it better ...KFL for me is the safest and best buy on NZX ...ATM / EBO / VGL are also their holdings not nz economy oriented companies :t_up:[/QUOTE]
That's not saying KFL is outstanding, just the best of an underperforming market ?

[Bjauck]

Yes net 52,000 Kiwis left last 12 months …..net 163,000 non-Kiwis arrived
S
NZ has been undergoing a major demographic change, that both major political parties support by default. Smaller rates of migration (for size of population) helped cause Brexit in the UK. They both avoid major systemic monetary and fiscal reform.

[bull....]

Bang on forecasts on every count ...S&P 500 up 50 and 10Y down 10bips ...wow its easy ...no wonder Bull is creaming it and enjoying whitkers everyday :p

powell say at interview , higher for longer. so cant see ORR doing anything different maybe why nz stocks crashing

[alokdhir]

powell say at interview , higher for longer. so cant see ORR doing anything different maybe why nz stocks crashing

Higher for longer theme is now well ingrained in the market psyche ...NZ is totally different case ...with Govt doing or overdoing its bit on controlling inflation ...we will surely see rate cuts sooner then latter ...PGW @ 1.53 is showing farmers in deep trouble and nz is an agricultural country ....I will stick my neck out and say OCT/NOV RBNZ pivots fully

[bull....]

Higher for longer theme is now well ingrained in the market psyche ...NZ is totally different case ...with Govt doing or overdoing its bit on controlling inflation ...we will surely see rate cuts sooner then latter ...PGW @ 1.53 is showing farmers in deep trouble and nz is an agricultural country ....I will stick my neck out and say OCT/NOV RBNZ pivots fully

as you like to tell us stocks are forward looking then some nz stocks must be predicting a dire economy by end of yr so maybe you be right on rate cuts ?

[Toddy]

I'm going to try my best and be positive today about the NZX.

I know what you are thinking. It's impossible.

At some stage the bargain hunters will be back. Not all businesses are mismanaged. We have some great companys with fantastic balance sheets that have been let down by the likes of FBU.

Im a Highlanders supporter. So I don't know what giving up even means.

[SailorRob]

I'm going to try my best and be positive today about the NZX.

I know what you are thinking. It's impossible.

At some stage the bargain hunters will be back. Not all businesses are mismanaged. We have some great companys with fantastic balance sheets that have been let down by the likes of FBU.

Im a Highlanders supporter. So I don't know what giving up even means.


Dude there are not many bargains -it's massively overvalued....

[SailorRob]

Reddell reported this morning one of the most stunning statistics I have ever seen

NZ real GDP per capita is up a total of 3% since 2017.

Nominal PC up 29%.

Almost hard to believe.

0.42% PA real per capita GDP growth over 7 years.

Basically explains everything.

[ValueNZ]

Reddell reported this morning one of the most stunning statistics I have ever seen

NZ real GDP per capita is up a total of 3% since 2017.

Nominal PC up 29%.

Almost hard to believe.

0.42% PA real per capita GDP growth over 7 years.

Basically explains everything.
3% since 2017... That is dogsh1t growth.

We should be aiming for 3% real growth p.a.

[Ggcc]

Reddell reported this morning one of the most stunning statistics I have ever seen

NZ real GDP per capita is up a total of 3% since 2017.

Nominal PC up 29%.

Almost hard to believe.

0.42% PA real per capita GDP growth over 7 years.

Basically explains everything.

Wow. That is disgusting and I don’t truly know what to think.

[dabsman]

Socialism in all its glory. Pity they ran out of other peoples money to spend

[Toddy]

Socialism in all its glory. Pity they ran out of other peoples money to spend

I would argue that Socialism was only partly to blame.

I think the real drain on capital was more likely caused by the Greenies and little old NZ trying to save the world. The rules and regulations forced upon our major economic driver farming, mining, oil and gas, wastage of money on cycle lanes, slowing down traffic with speed limits etc. I could go on.

We can bend to the left easily enough a small bit, but to enforce regulation preventing progress and scaring away capital is the best way to make NZ poor.

[ValueNZ]

I've been thinking about Kiwisaver providers since I turned 18 not too long ago and started contributing for govt + employer contribution. Every provider I've looked at has high fees, and mostly only offer funds with far too high % invested in NZ equities/fixed income etc.

My ideal Kiwisaver portfolio would likely consist of a high % in VOO, BRK with a small percent in an assortment of my own individual company picks, with minimal fees. It's looking like that's not possible, but please, if anyone knows how I can do this PM me.

I understand you have 100% of your Kiwisaver in BRK using Craigs, SailorRob? Craigs is charging 1.25% p.a in management fees below 250k, for doing practically nothing! Surely there must be another way?

[causecelebre]

. Deleted ....

[Toddy]

I've been thinking about Kiwisaver providers since I turned 18 not too long ago and started contributing for govt + employer contribution. Every provider I've looked at has high fees, and mostly only offer funds with far too high % invested in NZ equities/fixed income etc.

My ideal Kiwisaver portfolio would likely consist of a high % in VOO, BRK with a small percent in an assortment of my own individual company picks, with minimal fees. It's looking like that's not possible, but please, if anyone knows how I can do this PM me.

I understand you have 100% of your Kiwisaver in BRK using Craigs, SailorRob? Craigs is charging 1.25% p.a in management fees below 250k, for doing practically nothing! Surely there must be another way?

I've always been too scared to have a Kiwisaver as there is a risk that the Government may change the rules one day to annuity payouts only.

[Bikeguy]

No profit warnings / downgrades today

NZX should have a rare up day

In fairness you were only out by a day👍

[ronaldson]

Up 1.75%. What happened?

[SailorRob]

I've been thinking about Kiwisaver providers since I turned 18 not too long ago and started contributing for govt + employer contribution. Every provider I've looked at has high fees, and mostly only offer funds with far too high % invested in NZ equities/fixed income etc.

My ideal Kiwisaver portfolio would likely consist of a high % in VOO, BRK with a small percent in an assortment of my own individual company picks, with minimal fees. It's looking like that's not possible, but please, if anyone knows how I can do this PM me.

I understand you have 100% of your Kiwisaver in BRK using Craigs, SailorRob? Craigs is charging 1.25% p.a in management fees below 250k, for doing practically nothing! Surely there must be another way?


Correct,

No other way that I know of.

I have complained to Lister more than once, his defence is compliance costs. I also complained when he misspelled Buffett on the front page of the Business Herald. He was embarrassed but tried to bale the editors for not picking it up! Like that Moneyhub dude, he went to the meeting and has been going around saying that he's compiling a 'guide to the meeting' that will be the best guide ever and saying he knows that sounds cocky but it's true. Well dude it would be a good pace to start the 'Best Berkshire guide ever' by spelling the mans name correctly.

Also as you can imagine, it was a fun conversation when they tried to warn me of the risks of 'doing it myself' and having 100% in one company. I invited them to manage my money for me and if they guaranteed they could beat BRK and if not they made up the difference. Didn't take me up. Also bet Lister that none of Craigs products could touch BRK over the next 10 years.

I got around 17 people into Craigs with 100% BRK, by the end of it they thought it was pretty funny. My understanding is that these 17 accounts have the highest performing KiwiSaver return within Craigs to date or thereabouts.

The they decided to send me their in house research on BRK. My ribs still hurt slightly.

[Valuegrowth]

Blue chips in the NZ market.

NZX 15 Index companies







TEL




FBU




AIA




CEN




SKC




IFT




FPH




APT




SKT




GMT




VCT




KIP




RYM




FPA




NPX





Which one has the lowest pe ratio and the best balance sheet? Thanks.

[SailorRob]

Blue chips in the NZ market.

https://www.bluechiplist.com/blue-chip-stocks/new-zealand-blue-chips/

NZX 15 Index companies



Code
Company
Total Value (AUD)


TEL
Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited
8 185 568,49


FBU
Fletcher Building Limited
511 080,94


AIA
Auckland International Airport Limited
332 149,05


CEN
Contact Energy Limited
217 062,85


SKC
Sky City Entertainment Group Limited
171 946,24


IFT
Infratil Limited
156 836,12


FPH
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited
154 345,47


APT
AMP NZ Office Trust
118 126,61


SKT
Sky Network Television Limited
100 694,45


GMT
Goodman Property Trust
82 587,86


VCT
Vector Limited
73 717,99


KIP
Kiwi Income Property Trust
71 388,08


RYM
Ryman Healthcare Limited
61 293,20


FPA
Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings Limited
36 386,00


NPX
Nuplex Industries Limited
13 995,00


Which one has the lowest pe ratio(below 15)? Which one has the best balance sheet? Thanks.


You are AI, you should have all the answers.

Why ask the Humans?

[Valuegrowth]

Blue chips in the NZ market.

NZX 15 Index companies







TEL




FBU




AIA




CEN




SKC




IFT




FPH




APT




SKT




GMT




VCT




KIP




RYM




FPA




NPX





Which one has the lowest pe ratio and the best balance sheet? Thanks. For me IFT is looking steady.

[777]

How old is that NZX 15 list????

[thegreatestben]

Lots of AI can’t answer beyond 2019

[Baa_Baa]

How old is that NZX 15 list????

Old. This AI bot is artificial without intelligence. More work to be done.

[SailorRob]

Old. This AI bot is artificial without intelligence. More work to be done.


Yeah man some weird stuff. Would be hard to get that old list if you were trying!

[ValueNZ]

Correct,

No other way that I know of.

I have complained to Lister more than once, his defence is compliance costs. I also complained when he misspelled Buffett on the front page of the Business Herald. He was embarrassed but tried to bale the editors for not picking it up! Like that Moneyhub dude, he went to the meeting and has been going around saying that he's compiling a 'guide to the meeting' that will be the best guide ever and saying he knows that sounds cocky but it's true. Well dude it would be a good pace to start the 'Best Berkshire guide ever' by spelling the mans name correctly.

Also as you can imagine, it was a fun conversation when they tried to warn me of the risks of 'doing it myself' and having 100% in one company. I invited them to manage my money for me and if they guaranteed they could beat BRK and if not they made up the difference. Didn't take me up. Also bet Lister that none of Craigs products could touch BRK over the next 10 years.

I got around 17 people into Craigs with 100% BRK, by the end of it they thought it was pretty funny. My understanding is that these 17 accounts have the highest performing KiwiSaver return within Craigs to date or thereabouts.

The they decided to send me their in house research on BRK. My ribs still hurt slightly.

Again I don't have much time to write much, but if anyone wasn't convinced of Robs world class capital allocation ability, here's your proof. What are quite likely to be the top 18 performing kiwisaver portfolios in the entire country over the last 3-5 years (not exactly sure of the time frame), are the direct results of Robs actions.

[clip]

How old is that NZX 15 list????

Old enough to have spark listed as telecom ��

[mike2020]

Old enough to have spark listed as telecom ��

It's listed as a member since 2013 so it must have access to an old account but why? Just practice?

[SailorRob]

Again I don't have much time to write much, but if anyone wasn't convinced of Robs world class capital allocation ability, here's your proof. What are quite likely to be the top 18 performing kiwisaver portfolios in the entire country over the last 3-5 years (not exactly sure of the time frame), are the direct results of Robs actions.


Well lots of luck in a short timeframe like that (inceptions mid 2021 through early 2022) and having a reasonably aggressive move towards fair value as well as good underlying business performance.

But anyone with any of the managed fund products would have lost out automatically, anyone with any NZ exposure, all the index products including QQQ Nasdaq, so the only competition was others who manage 100% of it themselves AND pick individual stocks. That would be very few accounts and I'd imagine most of them were chasing tech or going super conservative bluechips. So it's not hard to believe and it came from Craigs telling that to a couple of the people who had gone 100% BRK. That said I wouldn't bet on it.

If Bull has a Craigs KiwiSaver account and manages his own then clearly mine would not be the highest.

[777]

Old enough to have spark listed as telecom ��

And PCT as APT.

[Bjauck]

I would argue that Socialism was only partly to blame.

I think the real drain on capital was more likely caused by the Greenies and little old NZ trying to save the world. The rules and regulations forced upon our major economic driver farming, mining, oil and gas, wastage of money on cycle lanes, slowing down traffic with speed limits etc. I could go on.

We can bend to the left easily enough a small bit, but to enforce regulation preventing progress and scaring away capital is the best way to make NZ poor.

Are you being serious with speed limits slowing traffic down being a drain on capital? Serious Traffic congestion may well cause economic loss but it is not the fault of speed limits.

On the open road 60-80kph is about the sweet spot for most petrol engines. Of course you need to juggle that with the risk of accidental death and serious injury and the economic loss that brings with increasing speeds. City street driving speed limits should be reduced to 40kph (which may actually mean 50kph in reality) and motorway and open road limits should go back down to 80kph max.

[Daytr]

Are you being serious with speed limits slowing traffic down being a drain on capital? Serious Traffic congestion may well cause economic loss but it is not the fault of speed limits.

On the open road 60-80kph is about the sweet spot for most petrol engines. Of course you need to juggle that with the risk of accidental death and serious injury and the economic loss that brings with increasing speeds. City street driving speed limits should be reduced to 40kph (which may actually mean 50kph in reality) and motorway and open road limits should go back down to 80kph max.

I think it depends if you have decent roads which in a lot of cases in NZ it doesn't.
In Australia the big highways are 110km and it actually feels like you are driving around 80kms due to the quality of the road.

With all the trucks on the road, it's pretty hard to get a decent run anywhere, let alone the damage they do to the road which we all subsidize.

[Bobdn]

https://youtu.be/aSbcIsPlPNY?si=taFasjFD8iokuGZM

Blackrock guy gives the New Zealand share market a shout out at the 30 second mark!

[bull....]

Well lots of luck in a short timeframe like that (inceptions mid 2021 through early 2022) and having a reasonably aggressive move towards fair value as well as good underlying business performance.

But anyone with any of the managed fund products would have lost out automatically, anyone with any NZ exposure, all the index products including QQQ Nasdaq, so the only competition was others who manage 100% of it themselves AND pick individual stocks. That would be very few accounts and I'd imagine most of them were chasing tech or going super conservative bluechips. So it's not hard to believe and it came from Craigs telling that to a couple of the people who had gone 100% BRK. That said I wouldn't bet on it.

If Bull has a Craigs KiwiSaver account and manages his own then clearly mine would not be the highest.

your kiwisaver would be hard to beat.
i could never beat it as i really dont have one.
my wife gives me 100 a mth to put in one just to get govt contribution as i technically dont earn any money or have a job.

[Bobdn]

I'm like to you Bull, don't earn anything now so just put in the minimum to get the govt contribution.

My KiwiSaver return over the last five years is just over 11 per cent per annum after fees and taxes.

It doubles in value every 6.5 years pretty consistently now.

Forget that **** though. Boring.

What about Rick Reeder giving our market a shoutout!

https://youtu.be/aSbcIsPlPNY?si=4NpJerJqEnGrlrLx

[ValueNZ]

Researching Kiwisaver funds is making me really quite mad. Why in a "free" country do I not have the ability to allocate my own capital on my own terms. I don't want any of these sh1tty funds (and they are all sh1t, but if anyone thinks their fund is the exception let me know). Even with Craig's, they limit where you can put your money to a handful of their "researched" companies and funds (and charge an outrageous management fee for the privilege).

[Bjauck]

I think it depends if you have decent roads which in a lot of cases in NZ it doesn't.
In Australia the big highways are 110km and it actually feels like you are driving around 80kms due to the quality of the road.

With all the trucks on the road, it's pretty hard to get a decent run anywhere, let alone the damage they do to the road which we all subsidize. Around 70kph constant travel is the most efficient. As you say, the quality of NZ open highways probably reduces the ability to maintain constant speed for long, so the optimal efficient speed is usually lower. Lower speeds are also preferable with respect to serious economic consequences from accidents.

Lower speed limits would reduce the amount of braking and slowing, leading to a smoother travel and reducing congestion build up at junctions.

[thegreatestben]

ValueNZ, I agree with you. To the point that I don't and haven't contributed to my kiwisaver for about 6 or 7 years now, I put that money to work elsewhere and I was earning a lot less so no big deal. I've made a few plays now and for me I sort of think it could be worth going back to minimum contribution to get the employer to contribute (I've asked various employers to just pay me their contribution to me, always a no). I don't have high hopes for kiwisaver or super in the long term but could be a cheap insurance policy, I do want to see investment into NZ and I think Simplicity are onto something with their build to rent endeavours so I'll probably stick with Simplicity High Growth for mine and save the brain power for bigger problems in life.

I appreciate you have a longer runway ahead of you, mid 30s for me. I'm pretty confident you'll have more than enough in no time.

[causecelebre]

Researching Kiwisaver funds is making me really quite mad. Why in a "free" country do I not have the ability to allocate my own capital on my own terms. I don't want any of these sh1tty funds (and they are all sh1t, but if anyone thinks their fund is the exception let me know). Even with Craig's, they limit where you can put your money to a handful of their "researched" companies and funds (and charge an outrageous management fee for the privilege).

Because we live in a nanny state and can't be trusted to have any autonomy. Australia had the right idea with self-managed super.

[thegreatestben]

Around 70kph constant travel is the most efficient. As you say, the quality of NZ open highways probably reduces the ability to maintain constant speed for long, so the optimal efficient speed is usually lower. Lower speeds are also preferable with respect to serious economic consequences from accidents.

Your statements are quite generalised and are based in some fact but I think you are missing some pretty key components. There's nothing optimal about anything where most people are issued with a licence in their 2nd or 3rd decade of existence and never expected to undertake any further training or compliance until what, 75 years old?

NZ needs to raise the bar for drivers not lower it.

[Panda-NZ-]

Your statements are quite generalised and are based in some fact but I think you are missing some pretty key components. There's nothing optimal about anything where most people are issued with a licence in their 2nd or 3rd decade of existence and never expected to undertake any further training or compliance until what, 75 years old?

NZ needs to raise the bar for drivers not lower it.

Well, there isn't really another option for those whose lisence is taken away (incl many elderly).

They can go for a walk I suppose.

[clip]

Researching Kiwisaver funds is making me really quite mad. Why in a "free" country do I not have the ability to allocate my own capital on my own terms. I don't want any of these sh1tty funds (and they are all sh1t, but if anyone thinks their fund is the exception let me know). Even with Craig's, they limit where you can put your money to a handful of their "researched" companies and funds (and charge an outrageous management fee for the privilege).

Sharesies also allow you to self select, however also limited to certain NZX-listed companies and range of etf's etc, although i bet the fees are lower than craigs.
https://www.sharesies.nz/kiwisaver

Haven't looked into it myself so don't know much about it other than those headlines. Milford active growth all the way baby

[Bjauck]

Because we live in a nanny state and can't be trusted to have any autonomy. Australia had the right idea with self-managed super.
Oz also has better tax incentives for their scheme.

[Panda-NZ-]

I'll stick all my funds in AIR... great idea.

Wasn't that the most popular share on sharesies... Must be young travellers or something.

[Daytr]

Who would have thunk charging $500 for a steak would see a business come unstuck.
I always wonder how these people keep the business running to the extent that the bills can get this out of control. Staff suffer as do creditors. I wonder if there will he court action on this one for trading whilst insolvent.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/restaurant-chain-owing-23m-ceases-all-operations-200-staff-terminated/news-story/4c1b3deaedc9a678c9a4d37c94529b22

[causecelebre]

Oz also has better tax incentives for their scheme.

Absolutely, the double taxation in Kiwisaver is a bit crap.

[Bjauck]

Your statements are quite generalised and are based in some fact but I think you are missing some pretty key components. There's nothing optimal about anything where most people are issued with a licence in their 2nd or 3rd decade of existence and never expected to undertake any further training or compliance until what, 75 years old?

NZ needs to raise the bar for drivers not lower it.
Of course it was generalised, it was a three line post! I definitely agree that advanced driving instruction would be great. A tougher bar for driving would rule out some who would then need to use our hard-to-find public transport in our sprawling towns built around private transport usage.

[causecelebre]

I'll stick all my funds in AIR... great idea.

Wasn't that the most popular share on sharesies... Must be young travellers or something.

Nope, investing by nationalism. Now they have been found out now the tide has gone out. Sharesies, I believe, is partly (largely?) to blame for this. The amount of self interest in promoting the rights issue by Sharesies was deplorable if not outright criminal.

[winner69]

Crown ElectroKinetics Corp. (CRKN) having a great run

[ynot]

Absolutely, the double taxation in Kiwisaver is a bit crap.

Kiwisaver is totally crap. Like you say Oz super makes our super look like a tiddlywinks. I know their system is set up differently with means testing etc, but regardless they are light years ahead of us with old age funding. And they are investing in their economy at the same time. Double win for them.

[Bjauck]

Nope, investing by nationalism. Now they have been found out now the tide has gone out. Sharesies, I believe, is partly (largely?) to blame for this. The amount of self interest in promoting the rights issue by Sharesies was deplorable if not outright criminal. The investors in every country have home market bias. That is quite natural. NZ has considerably less home market bias than some. It means that our companies have to rely more on the “kindness of strangers”! That all results in our small sharemarket.

[Panda-NZ-]

Kiwisaver is totally crap. Like you say Oz super makes our super look like a tiddlywinks. I know their system is set up differently with means testing etc, but regardless they are light years ahead of us with old age funding. And they are investing in their economy at the same time. Double win for them.

Many of the default providers are owned by aussie banks. Though the last govt tried to change the mix slightly.

[Jaa]

Again I don't have much time to write much, but if anyone wasn't convinced of Robs world class capital allocation ability, here's your proof. What are quite likely to be the top 18 performing kiwisaver portfolios in the entire country over the last 3-5 years (not exactly sure of the time frame), are the direct results of Robs actions.

You can invest in Smartshare ETFs via Superlife with much lower fees than Craigs (0.3-0.5%). US large growth (https://www.superlife.co.nz/investment/sector-funds/us-large-growth-fund?tab=kiwisaver) has had annualised 5 year returns of 16.4% after fees and tax.

With 199 components it would seem a wiser choice than investing in only one company even if that one company is similar to an ETF.

[ynot]

Many of the default providers are owned by aussie banks. Though the last govt tried to change the mix slightly.

My point is the Oz super is far superior to ours. So many more investment vehicles, even real estate, tax advantages, better incentives like salary sacrificing , higher compulsory employer contribution, the list goes on. For Ausi's nearing retirement many have accumulated not insignificant super $$$$.

[Toddy]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/jamming-out-of-earnings-season

EBOS, Fph, Mft and Infratil are our truly international companies with American style returns. These companies can grow revenue year in year out.

It's super difficult to argue with the maths in the article.

[causecelebre]

Dow closed above 40000. Onwards

[Bjauck]

My point is the Oz super is far superior to ours. So many more investment vehicles, even real estate, tax advantages, better incentives like salary sacrificing , higher compulsory employer contribution, the list goes on. For Ausi's nearing retirement many have accumulated not insignificant super $$$$. Muldoon saw dancing Communist Cossacks at the mention of a super scheme so we did not have as earlier a start to a super scheme as the Aussies. Then Labour’s socialist Cullen was instrumental in setting the KiwiSaver terms. I think he was reluctant to give too many tax advantages lest it would be seen as middle-class welfare. So we got a watered-down scheme, and many continued to use investor real estate as their main way to grow a tax-advantageous nest egg.

[Panda-NZ-]

The super age was established at 65 in 1945. Only a select few lived that long.

Now every man and his dog gets it as spare pocket money regardless of their income or health. Since there's three year elections it becomes a problem for someone else. Most politicians here think about their future knighthood and board position rather than the future of NZ.

[Jaa]

Muldoon saw dancing Communist Cossacks at the mention of a super scheme so we did not have as earlier a start to a super scheme as the Aussies. Then Labour’s socialist Cullen was instrumental in setting the KiwiSaver terms. I think he was reluctant to give too many tax advantages lest it would be seen as middle-class welfare. So we got a watered-down scheme, and many continued to use investor real estate as their main way to grow a tax-advantageous nest egg.

At least Cullen took the problem seriously and did something.

It was John Key's government that stripped back many of the tax advantages that KiwiSaver did have.

[moka]

The super age was established at 65 in 1945. Only a select few lived that long.

Now every man and his dog gets it as spare pocket money regardless of their income or health. Since there's three year elections it becomes a problem for someone else. Most politicians here think about their future knighthood and board position rather than the future of NZ.
My research shows that the age for Universal Superannuation was 65 from 1940. This was for those who were not entitled to the Age Benefit previously called old Age Pension. The age was lowered to 60 in 1977 when New Zealand Superannuation scheme was introduced.

From 1940 to 1974 the structure of state pensions - the Tier 1 age pension (means-tested from age 60) and universal superannuation (taxable from age 65).

The Social Security Act 1938 installed a two-tier public pension system that was also to last for nearly four decades.
The main feature of the 1938 scheme for pensioners was an enhanced, non-taxed but means tested pension called the Age Benefit. This came into effect in 1939 and was largely the Old Age Pension under a new name. However, the age of entitlement was lowered from 65 to 60.

At age 65 those not entitled to the Age Benefit received a small universal superannuation payment of £10 a year effective from 1940, plus the promise that this payment would gradually be increased to match the Age Benefit. However, it was not until 1960 that this point was actually reached.
Before that from 1898 an Old Age Pension was introduced, for which those aged 65-plus could apply subject to a rigorous means test that covered both income and assets. The Old-age Pensions Act gave a small means-tested pension to elderly men and women with few assets who were ‘of good moral character’ and had been leading a ‘sober and reputable life’ for at least the previous five years.

In 1976, following the 1975 election, the Tier 2 New Zealand Superannuation Scheme was disbanded and in 1977 the universal Tier 1 “National Superannuation” for all from age 60 was introduced.
The Government announced a revised National Superannuation scheme for a taxable universal pension at age 60, effective from 1977.

The age of entitlement was lifted from 60 to 61 effective from 1992, with a further phase up to 65 programmed for the period 1993 to 2001.

In 1985 the recently elected Labour government attempted to refocus Superannuation on those in greatest need by introducing a surtax on other income earned by Superannuitants.

In the first year of the surcharge about 10 percent of superannuitants paid the equivalent of their full superannuation back in surcharge payments, and about 13 percent repaid a partial amount. This total of 23 percent affected by the surcharge compares with the two-thirds excluded under the original 1898 means test on the Old Age Pension. However, the surcharge was highly unpopular with superannuitants. The New Zealand Superannuation surcharge was abolished in 1998.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976486067/super-history-understanding-recent-changes.html
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976486047/super-history-nz-s-super-system-unique.html
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/speech/social-welfare-new-zealand

[Ferg]

Thanks moka. I recently did a straw poll with a number of OAPs and I asked the question: "should NZ super be means tested based on income?".

Of the 5 OAPs in attendance 4 said categorically 'yes' (no quibbles, no exceptions, no qualifications) and 1 was 'it depends'. Mix of voter base, mix of working status and former careers. The 1 fence sitter was likely the one with the highest wealth and income.

In light of the income available to some OAPs and the dire state of the books of NZ Inc....maybe the super being income means tested might not be as unpopular as we think. From memory the pension is the single largest line of expenditure for the NZ Government.

The other straw poll was: "should income tax be based on family income"? 'Family' being yourself + your partner. 7 of 7 said yes.

[moka]

Thanks moka. I recently did a straw poll with a number of OAPs and I asked the question: "should NZ super be means tested based on income?".

Of the 5 OAPs in attendance 4 said categorically 'yes' (no quibbles, no exceptions, no qualifications) and 1 was 'it depends'. Mix of voter base, mix of working status and former careers. The 1 fence sitter was likely the one with the highest wealth and income.

In light of the income available to some OAPs and the dire state of the books of NZ Inc....maybe the super being income means tested might not be as unpopular as we think. From memory the pension is the single largest line of expenditure for the NZ Government.

The other straw poll was: "should income tax be based on family income"? 'Family' being yourself + your partner. 7 of 7 said yes.
The problem with means testing of NZS or any other financial assistance from the government such as Residential Care Subsidy is that people arrange their affairs to qualify e.g. as the article said millionaires qualify for Community Services Card.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/891752323/the-removal-of-the-surcharge.html
April 5th 1998. The removal of the surcharge.

Philip Macalister looks to the future and he looks at what strategy investors should take now the tax is gone.
The first thing is that many taxpayers who potentially fell into the grasp of the surcharge rearranged their affairs to minimise its effect.
Good Returns has heard of cases where millionaires have rearranged their affairs to the extent that they qualify for a Community Services Card.
Notwithstanding though there are thousands of New Zealanders who have been impacted by this tax that pushed some superannuitants onto a tax rate of 58 per cent.
Its introduction fuelled growth in product classes such as insurance bonds, and these are now feeling the pinch. (The irony of this is that people are told not to make investment decisions based on tax reasons, yet life offices and fund managers offered products which are designed to do just that).
Managers have become sensitive about the negative sentiments about the insurance bond sector, and not many are prepared to openly discuss the issue.
The evidence of what is happening is clear in fund flow figures. Investors have been avoiding insurance bonds for some time now and managers are winding down these products.

Equity Research principal Phil Briggs says people need to be cognisant of how such a switch will impact on their Community Services Card as the income they receive from their investments will be regarded as part of their total taxable income.
Eligibility for a card is related to taxable income levels and in some cases an investor may exceed these limits and lose their card.
Perhaps the most compelling reason for being cautious about switching out of tax paid products comes back to the track record of politicians.
Sure the surcharge has gone, but it is not forgotten.

The Todd Group is unequivocal in its view that there should be some form of means testing to integrate private and public provision - a surcharge but by a different name.
It wasn't the surcharge which investors despised, rather it was the fact that it had come to symbolise broken Government promises.

[causecelebre]

Nasdaq ATH overnight. NVDA report overnight Wednesday our time. Street is bullish. Options market pricing in 8% rise after earnings. Currently NVDA up 91% ‘24 alone and 203% in last 12 months

[Daytr]

Interesting comments from Jamie Dimon

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-stock-too-expensive.html

[SailorRob]

Interesting comments from Jamie Dimon

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-stock-too-expensive.html

What a legend, you don't hear that from many CEO's. Warren only other one I know of.

[winner69]

Is the FED keeping an eye on the Phillips Curve

[Bobdn]

The NZ50C is now three years and 5 months since an all time high.

Does anyone know what the record is ie how long between all time highs? I'm guessing from the GFC, 2007, to 2013?

I don't have any fancy chart software and the NZ media mostly don't care about such things. So I can't find anything on it.

Anyway, thanks in advance.

[Bjauck]

The NZ50C is now three years and 5 months since an all time high.

Does anyone know what the record is ie how long between all time highs? I'm guessing from the GFC, 2007, to 2013?

I don't have any fancy chart software and the NZ media mostly don't care about such things. So I can't find anything on it.

Anyway, thanks in advance. Most charts I have seen in the past relate to the gross index. NZ is “special”!

Investing on the NZ stock exchange is definitely a minority activity in NZ. Even KiwiSaver funds overwhelmingly invest on overseas exchanges. It is bearly noticed by most.

However price blips for residential housing garner hyperbolic reactions.

[SailorRob]

The NZ50C is now three years and 5 months since an all time high.

Does anyone know what the record is ie how long between all time highs? I'm guessing from the GFC, 2007, to 2013?

I don't have any fancy chart software and the NZ media mostly don't care about such things. So I can't find anything on it.

Anyway, thanks in advance.

Yes, 1987 through until 2018.

31 years.

Let me know if you need the data.

I think the total market cap was bigger in 1987 nominally than now even and in real terms FAR FAR bigger.

[Jaa]

Nasdaq ATH overnight. NVDA report overnight Wednesday our time. Street is bullish. Options market pricing in 8% rise after earnings. Currently NVDA up 91% ‘24 alone and 203% in last 12 months

NVDA is the canary.

Google's obnoxious AI overviews is getting trashed everywhere you look online as it is pants (coming to NZ soon). Such a visible failure suggests the end of AI for AI's sake is near.

Will lead to a focus on revenue and that is where the AI boom like most booms will be found wanting. A focus on revenue, will lead to optimising capital expenditure and further efficiency improvements along the lines of GPT-4o. Doing a bit less, faster with much smaller models. All leads to less need for Nvidia's products and ultimately data centre capacity.

[Bobdn]

Thanks Sailor, that's shocking.

Our entire market, according to that blackrock guy on cnbc, is just $90b USD.

I had no idea it was that low.

I wonder if we're approaching that 1987 moment where NZers walk away from our market for 20 plus years...or forever.

[causecelebre]

The NZ50C is now three years and 5 months since an all time high.

Does anyone know what the record is ie how long between all time highs? I'm guessing from the GFC, 2007, to 2013?

I don't have any fancy chart software and the NZ media mostly don't care about such things. So I can't find anything on it.

Anyway, thanks in advance.

Here ya go. Its a log scale chart. Monthly. Sorry, it looks like its been re-scaled smaller when I added it


15110

[Bobdn]

Thank you, Cause. That's incredibly interesting.

A great chart.

[causecelebre]

Thank you, Cause. That's incredibly interesting.

A great chart.

No worries, sorry it only goes back to '07.

[bull....]

Yes, 1987 through until 2018.

31 years.

Let me know if you need the data.

I think the total market cap was bigger in 1987 nominally than now even and in real terms FAR FAR bigger.

is that nominal or adjusted for inflation ?

[bull....]

Nasdaq ATH overnight. NVDA report overnight Wednesday our time. Street is bullish. Options market pricing in 8% rise after earnings. Currently NVDA up 91% ‘24 alone and 203% in last 12 months

set the tone possibly

[Bobdn]

Now my thoughts are this. I only got to retire early because I held my nose and invested in that stomach churning period from 2009 to 2013 and kept on investing.

I'm only 8 per cent NZ shares, partly because performance has been so poor relative to everything else. I never started at 8 per cent!

I do like to tinker, which almost always never works out. Nonetheless, I'm tempted to do a bit of rebalance and increase my NZ shares to 10 percent. I'd do it via Simplicity's NZ Share fund because of its very low fees.

I always have 5 per cent cash, so I might dip into that.

Just thinking out loud here.

Everything feels like such a turd sandwich in this country now.

But have we reached peak turd sandwich. I don't know.

[Bobdn]

@Bull, did you see this? Interesting

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-streets-biggest-bear-mike-wilson-finally-capitulates

[causecelebre]

Now my thoughts are this. I only got to retire early because I held my nose and invested in that stomach churning period from 2009 to 2013 and kept on investing.

I'm only 8 per cent NZ shares, partly because performance has been so poor relative to everything else. I never started at 8 per cent!

I do like to tinker, which almost always never works out. Nonetheless, I'm tempted to do a bit of rebalance and increase my NZ shares to 10 percent. I'd do it via Simplicity's NZ Share fund because of its very low fees.

I always have 5 per cent cash, so I might dip into that.

Just thinking out loud here.

Everything feels like such a turd sandwich in this country now.

But have we reached peak turd sandwich. I don't know.

Like you I only have a small % in NZX. I think your fund tracks a Morningstar index so the following is not really a comparison. Nonetheless, I am of the view that the NZ20 is a better index to follow that the NZ50 and is a truer equivalent as NZ's S&P500. Even though sector composition is similar to NZ50, the number of companies are in proportion to the size of the NZ market and under performing companies are dropped faster (and vice versa). The NZ20 well outperforms the NZ50: 1.58% per annum over the last 11 years. The higher market cap companies of the NZ20 also attract more coverage and investor interest.

[Bobdn]

That's an interesting point.

Kernel Wealth like their NZ20 index I see. It appears to have performed better than the broader NZ market.

[Entrep]

Feels like many possibly waking up to the fact that while NZ might be a great place to live, that doesn't automatically mean it will be a great place to invest?

I have naively believed this until now. But the rose-tinted glasses are off.

With the access we all have to international markets and rising migration, alternative investments, etc hard to see the trend reversing?

We already have no CGT on NZ shares and the FIF regime. What else can the Govt really do?

[SailorRob]

is that nominal or adjusted for inflation ?


Nominal, which makes it so much worse it's hard to comprehend.

Brian Gayner wrote about it a few times.

Adjust for inflation and it could be 2050 before we hit 1987, or never. The size of the market back then was huge.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMDNehHKu7c

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIpt16D2mgQ

[SailorRob]

Now my thoughts are this. I only got to retire early because I held my nose and invested in that stomach churning period from 2009 to 2013 and kept on investing.

I'm only 8 per cent NZ shares, partly because performance has been so poor relative to everything else. I never started at 8 per cent!

I do like to tinker, which almost always never works out. Nonetheless, I'm tempted to do a bit of rebalance and increase my NZ shares to 10 percent. I'd do it via Simplicity's NZ Share fund because of its very low fees.

I always have 5 per cent cash, so I might dip into that.

Just thinking out loud here.

Everything feels like such a turd sandwich in this country now.

But have we reached peak turd sandwich. I don't know.


It has to be said Bobdn, you are almost certainly one of the best investors in NZ and I would bet good money that you have destroyed all of the professionals by a very wide margin.

How?

By sitting on your arse.

All of these people doing all of this analysis and work and trading and god knows what else.

You just index and don't mess with the formula that you know will win out over the long term. You look at the evidence and act accordingly.

You know when you pick individual stocks it doesn't work out, so you don't. You keep it simple and stick to the rules you've set and that is that.

You don't give a crap about the news or all the pros calling for massive recessions or wars or anything.

I'd say you're within the top 1% easily.

It is a breath of fresh air.

Tried to tell my GF's Dad the same thing but he said it was too boring. I asked him if travelling the world playing the top Golf courses would be boring.

[Bobdn]

Thanks Sailor! You're too kind. Many failures along the way but I got there in the end.

[Toddy]

Just asking. What does retire 'early' actually mean.

I found that going fishing, surfing, down hill mtb (golf but not for me) etc is just not the same unless it's adrenaline plus unwinding the stress.
That's why I chucked the desk job and bought a farm. So that I can work and play.

Well done on the $$$ from investing. I will learn and get it right one day.

[Bobdn]

Retired at 51. I lead a modest life and am not wealthy by most NZ sharetrader standards. Never bored. Schedule adventures from time to time so I can talk about my adventures and sound like I'm having a productive retirement.

YouTube is an essential element of retirement as is Audible.

[causecelebre]

Retired at 51. I lead a modest life and am not wealthy by most NZ sharetrader standards. Never bored. Schedule adventures from time to time so I can talk about my adventures and sound like I'm having a productive retirement.

YouTube is an essential element of retirement as is Audible.

I think you are probably one of the "richest" participants in this forum. It strikes me you have set yourself up in a way you can enjoy your life and seem happy with your lot. It is a rich man that can choose what they want to do rather than be tethered to the tyranny of work or the endless need to make more paper. Congrats.

I'll admit I am more than a little envious :)

I started a bit too late. My investment journey didn't start until quite late in my life and I had kids later than average as well. Not that I would swap them for all the tea in China. Mind you my 20's and 30's have some memorable moments ;)

[bull....]

rbnz leaved unchanged , but track pushed out with posibility of more rate hikes :scared: nzd rally big time on that

[Toddy]

It's hard to disagree with Adrian's position. But it hurts!

[sb9]

Orr put big dagger through the hopes of any rate cuts this year, there goes the housing market to trash.

[Greekwatchdog]

The RBNZ is a joke.

They screwed by giving it away and the poor ignorant NZer went berserk and forgot they had to pay it back at higher rates in 2/3 years something Jacinda, Robertson and Orr left out when telling everyone to spend up. Regardless of the dribble from Orr today I still think we get a cut last quarter of the year unless he really wants to send the economy into to total oblivion..

[SailorRob]

But someone on sharetrader said they tots feel rates are coming down soon.

Actually, everyone on sharetrader

I'm confused.

[bull....]

The RBNZ is a joke.

They screwed by giving it away and the poor ignorant NZer went berserk and forgot they had to pay it back at higher rates in 2/3 years something Jacinda, Robertson and Orr left out when telling everyone to spend up. Regardless of the dribble from Orr today I still think we get a cut last quarter of the year unless he really wants to send the economy into to total oblivion..

i expect economy is declining big time as we speak. prob be terrible numbers by time they released sometime next yr lol

yep and property is not going up this yr

anyway isnt that how things work make the rich richer and the poor poorer ?

[Ggcc]

But someone on sharetrader said they tots feel rates are coming down soon.

Actually, everyone on sharetrader

I'm confused.
I am one of those. unfortunately not likely to be happening. I will most likely hold onto house till next year at this rate, of course I would prefer to sell it.

[alokdhir]

With Banks falling over each other in trying to get some business from few buyers in the property market ...all trying to reduce rates as much as possible

RBNZ statement was expected to curb premature loosening in bonds market ...but will it last ...we will see ...last qtr rate cuts very much on horizon

[causecelebre]

Its a big hit to property sentiment for sure - the OCR being such a headline figure. Many people I know of have re-fixed on 1 Year will be a bit gutted. My guess is many an investor waiting for this announcement before deciding on whether to take advantage of the brightline changes in July will see a bump in the number of properties on an already saturated market

Unemployment still rising. We will see

[Aaron]

Its a big hit to property sentiment for sure - the OCR being such a headline figure. Many people I know of have re-fixed on 1 Year will be a bit gutted. My guess is many an investor waiting for this announcement before deciding on whether to take advantage of the brightline changes in July will see a bump in the number of properties on an already saturated market

Unemployment still rising. We will see

Sounds like good news for first home buyers with a job. Some light at the end of the tunnel at last.

[Leemsip]

Economy is a slow moving beast, but feels like its tipping down pretty hard now. One after the other NZ stonks reporting bad numbers, KMD, WHS, Micheal Hill, Fletcher, ARG, SML...

Feels grim in Wellington I tell ya, the Kainga Ora restructure will be pretty massive in terms of job losses and their massive build programme drying up. I have been told that they have got a full build prog until June 25, and past that they arent making committments due to the review.

I am one of those who think/thought RBNZ will need to cut by the end of the year. Only a few months left, so maybe they make it into early 2025.

Lets all do a BOBDN and buy during the horrible recession of 2025. Hoping my ~30% bond allocation gets a lift and I can swap out into some depressed blue chips (Im looking at you Comvita, Fletcher, SML...lol)

[causecelebre]

I just spent a few moment perusing the comments on various outlets regarding reactions to this announcement. The ignorance is staggering. There is so little understanding of banking. To be fair its complicated but we live in an age where we can educate ourselves easily.

[Daytr]

My read is Orr is trying to get bang for interest rate buck, playing it hard in rhetoric without having to do anything to spook spending further.

I was short NZD up until yesterday, closed out and reset bigger at 61.45 as I figured it would drift off after the announcement & so far so good.
It will be interesting to see what Europe / London does on the open.

[Greekwatchdog]

i expect economy is declining big time as we speak. prob be terrible numbers by time they released sometime next yr lol

yep and property is not going up this yr

anyway isnt that how things work make the rich richer and the poor poorer ?

Yeah then he will cut to hard to quick and create another asset bubble.

It will be a dark winter for everyone. I suspect spring could be the time we see a little brightness, thou we won't see this the the figures until like you say early 25, unless we see data late 24.

Yes, and created by a bunch of inept socialists. Go figure

[SailorRob]

Sharetraders, think carefully about this, I just sent to my agent.

Even if I can save one of you it's worth it.

Hi *******,

Hope all is well, I'll have to drop in sometime to pick up my gift or whatever it was.


Nearly a year since the below exchange, all the sophisticated insiders that you and/or Ray White have access to... who were telling the agents that rate drops were imminent... Guess they are still getting paid to make forecasts! I remember you earnestly telling me what was going to happen to interest rates over the coming Summer at the table like it was yesterday.


What surprises me more is that you will not have one single client that remembers what was getting said last July and is now reminding you about it. All those same people will now be listening to the new forecasts being made.


Reserve Bank now saying 3rd quarter of next year... Of course they have zero clue either.


If any professional ever makes any forecast, the very first question is, what is their prior record with this forecasting. But nobody ever asks that.

[SailorRob]

My read is Orr is trying to get bang for interest rate buck, playing it hard in rhetoric without having to do anything to spook spending further.


Yeah I agree, seems like he is bluffing his chubby arse off.

[Bikeguy]

Yeah I agree, seems like he is bluffing his chubby arse off.

Agreed,
Soon enough he ( or someone else in his seat) is going to be pulling down the OCR as hard as they can, trying to stimulate a stagnating economy…and it will be no different around the world…just like it was before Covid…
Quantitative easing provided the stimulus, now is over we cannot but go back to what the true state of affairs was…

[winner69]

UK inflation down to 2.3%

[causecelebre]

Yeah I agree, seems like he is bluffing his chubby arse off.

Better to bluff the conservative side rather than coming in too dovish and it splat in his face. QE easier that QT should it go bad being hawkish


UK inflation down to 2.3%

Giddyup.

[troyvdh]

sb9.
Read again Toddys post.
This dagger....geez...
I ask you do we have the highest valued residential mkt in the world.

NZ inc I believe has relied on house price appreciation....past administrations have relied on this for decades.

Surely any collapse is inevitable.

[Daytr]

Volatile night after Fed notes published.
I think the market was looking for an excuse to pull back after stretching to record highs in many areas.

Enjoying the volatility.
Picked up some gold, in & out of the DOW & NASDAQ & still short Kiwi.
Will look to establish a NASDAQ short on the volatility of the NVIDIA earnings.

[causecelebre]

NBDA revenue $26b beating expectations $24.65b up $260% yoy. EPS $6.12 beating expectations $5.59. 10 to 1 stock split. Going from 90 to the moon sounds easier than 900 to the moon :)

[SailorRob]

Volatile night after Fed notes published.
I think the market was looking for an excuse to pull back after stretching to record highs in many areas.

Enjoying the volatility.
Picked up some gold, in & out of the DOW & NASDAQ & still short Kiwi.
Will look to establish a NASDAQ short on the volatility of the NVIDIA earnings.

This put a smile on my face Day Trader.

Do you think you do better than Bobdn?

[Daytr]

This put a smile on my face Day Trader.

Do you think you do better than Bobdn?

I don't care. As I have said many times, trading is just one tool I use.

What makes me more than smile, laugh, is that you think there is only one way to make money.
And that you spend so much time defending your insecurities.
Now that is hilarious & a bit sad.

[causecelebre]

I don't care. As I have said many times, trading is just one tool I use.

What makes me more than smile, laugh, is that you think there is only one way to make money.
And that you spend so much time defending your insecurities.
Now that is hilarious & a bit sad.

Oh bro...you went there....fool me once....

[Daytr]

Oh bro...you went there....fool me once....

What are you on about?

[bull....]

I don't care. As I have said many times, trading is just one tool I use.

What makes me more than smile, laugh, is that you think there is only one way to make money.
And that you spend so much time defending your insecurities.
Now that is hilarious & a bit sad.

yep use what ever tools make you money. thats what its all about.

anyway your nzd trade was way to go , quite often in the last yr it fades after a big jump on ORR's hawkishness.

[causecelebre]

What are you on about?

If you can't see it mate then there's no hope

[bull....]

NBDA revenue $26b beating expectations $24.65b up $260% yoy. EPS $6.12 beating expectations $5.59. 10 to 1 stock split. Going from 90 to the moon sounds easier than 900 to the moon :)

smashed it again. stock split opens stock up to more demand too.