Black Monday

[Rawz]

Oh gee. The economy shrunk. Who would have thought.

Yes and you can guarantee that this quarter is no better.
Think how many households are refixing on higher rates this calendar year. Only more pain to come for the economy.


https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/126930/new-zealand%E2%80%99s-gross-domestic-product-person-dropped-07-during-december

New Zealand’s economy got 0.1% smaller in the last three months of 2023, bringing annual growth for the calendar year to just 0.6%.
Stats NZ reported gross domestic product had fallen for a second quarter, after the 0.3% decline in the September quarter.
This result was a small surprise for forecasters who expected 0.1% growth and the Reserve Bank which predicted no change during the quarter.
The largest downward drivers came from a 1.8% decline in the wholesale trade of items such as groceries, liquor, machinery, and equipment, Stats NZ said.

[causecelebre]

Oh gee. The economy shrunk. Who would have thought.

Apparently importing GDP via immigration isn't working either....

[Panda-NZ-]

Apparently importing GDP via immigration isn't working either....

Yeah the per capita numbers would be a horror story.

[Toddy]

Silver lining. As a Kiwifruit grower I'm looking forward to lower interest rates sooner, a dropping Nzd and cheaper immigrant labour.

Always looking for the positives.

But super worried about the basket case NZ economy. What a mess.

[bull....]

testing the breakout maybe. not uncommon for big asx drops after a good run and march is historically a seasonally weak month for asx on average.
i might worry more if it falls under 7600 being a trader

asx holding that 7600 breakout with a nice bounce up of 1% today ... new market highs soon ?

[bull....]

shocker NZ gdp. I expect even worse result next quarter. per capita worse than the gfc it be next time

NZ better find some new markets or businesses quick or standard of living going down. dumb tax cuts dont help probably have to sell more silver to pay for them

[Valuegrowth]

Silver lining. As a Kiwifruit grower I'm looking forward to lower interest rates sooner, a dropping Nzd and cheaper immigrant labour.

Always looking for the positives.

But super worried about the basket case NZ economy. What a mess.Lower NZ dollar is good for export. Also good for those who want to convert foreign currencies and foreign assets to NZD.

[kiora]

Silver lining. As a Kiwifruit grower I'm looking forward to lower interest rates sooner, a dropping Nzd and cheaper immigrant labour.

Always looking for the positives.

But super worried about the basket case NZ economy. What a mess.

"I'm looking forward to lower interest rates sooner, a dropping Nzd and cheaper immigrant labour."

Doubtfull they will come down soon enough & far enough?

Reserve bank seems to be in Lala land ?

[Bobdn]

Breaking news (lol): Switzerland is the first developed country to cut interest rates.

We need to cut interest rates in 3 2 1...

[Valuegrowth]

Breaking news (lol): Switzerland is the first developed country to cut interest rates.

We need to cut interest rates in 3 2 1...Even if Fed decide to cut rates it could be gradual and marginal. May be by 2026 or 2027 we will actually feel the rate cut.

[bull....]

more record highs . would have been much higher again if not for apple falling 5% odd anyway see markets pricing very high chance of rate cuts starting from june.
nikkei is the best market this yr though

[winner69]

No worries …saw this headline - An economist believes the double dip recession means the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) will slash rates by a full percentage point this year.

More than market priced in of 75 basis

Punters love rate cuts …NZX could be the place to be this year

[bull....]

from asb bank today

The size of the economic pie per New Zealander isbarely any bigger than it was in late 2019 (only about half a percent or so). There’s been an economic deceleration inmuch of the world, but the tumble in GDP per capita since mid-2022 has been particularly chunky here. In headlineterms, NZ’s post 2016 economic growth has been impressive relative to many of our peers, but the same can’t be saidfor per capita growth. The gulf in our post-2016 per capita GDP growth with the USA is wider than ever and nowrunning behind the Aussies as of this quarter.

Economists and policymakers need to think seriously about how toaddress the economy’s longstanding and chronic issues – low productivity, poor infrastructure and insufficientvalue-add in many of our key export sectors – or the consequences will not be pretty.

[causecelebre]

Yeah per capita growth has fallen 3.1% and individual purchasing power dropped 4.8% in the last year. Thanks covid lockdowns, an over reliance on China and poor decisions by policy makers driven by politics and simple incompetence.

[Rawz]

No worries …saw this headline - An economist believes the double dip recession means the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) will slash rates by a full percentage point this year.

More than market priced in of 75 basis

Punters love rate cuts …NZX could be the place to be this year

Time to buy reits, utilities and high dividend yield stocks

[Leemsip]

Bonds should do ok. I have bought some long dated bonds pre-xmas, should get some decent upside on these when RBNZ panic cuts back to zero.

If this doesnt work I will be super slutted, whats the point in knowing stuff about economics and maths if it doesnt make you any money

These bonds have been a tough hold, so boring and no movement yet...

[Rawz]

Bonds should do ok. I have bought some long dated bonds pre-xmas, should get some decent upside on these when RBNZ panic cuts back to zero.

If this doesnt work I will be super slutted, whats the point in knowing stuff about economics and maths if it doesnt make you any money

These bonds have been a tough hold, so boring and no movement yet...

Yes agree bonds is a good bet leading into the down part of the interest rate cycle.

[causecelebre]

Ha my mate YOLO'd into TMF at the end of last year with the same mindset. Not so happy now

[causecelebre]

AAPL. DOJ can go screw themselves. They have no right to remove my ability to tell when a poor person texts me

[winner69]

Guru Mark from Craig’s says -

“We don’t want to see the economy struggle, but if it leads to a reprieve on the interest rate front, then it could give the economy a boost and give the sharemarket the shot in the arm,”

[Snoopy]

Economists and policymakers need to think seriously about how toaddress is the economy’s longstanding and chronic issues – low productivity, poor infrastructure and insufficientvalue-add in many of our key export sectors – or the consequences will not be pretty.


I read bull's comment and wondered how Adrian Orr would look if he croaked out the next reserve bank pronouncement in a 'toad dress'. Maybe finance minister Nicola Willis would look better wearing that 'toad dress', whatever it might be?

SNOOPY

[Joshuatree]

Guru Mark from Craig’s says -

“We don’t want to see the economy struggle, but if it leads to a reprieve on the interest rate front, then it could give the economy a boost and give the sharemarket the shot in the arm,”
Exactly ,an engineered recession by The Reserve Bank to deal to inflation and high interest rates.

[Muse]

Bonds should do ok. I have bought some long dated bonds pre-xmas, should get some decent upside on these when RBNZ panic cuts back to zero.

If this doesnt work I will be super slutted, whats the point in knowing stuff about economics and maths if it doesnt make you any money

dang Leemsip - I understand being disappointed if it doesn't work out but showing a bit of skin on a street corner a bit extreme : )

[Bobdn]

@Muse - amazing, I was going to comment on "super slutted" as well. I haven't heard the phrase for a couple of decades at least. I think it was used in the 1980s or even 1970s? Must have drifted into the 1990s then it was lost in the mists of time - until now.

I wonder if it appeared in other countries as well?

[Leemsip]

trying to get across the depth of my emotion on these bonds!
Got to get some skin in the game eh.

[Bobdn]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/john-maynard-keynes-a-great-economist-but-poor-currency-trader

Knowing economics and mathematics didn't seem to help Keynes with currency trading but I see he did ok with shares.

I'm blissfully ignorant on maths and economics, fortunately. Otherwise I might start picking stocks again.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpiQ3sV2wfs

[alokdhir]

No worries …saw this headline - An economist believes the double dip recession means the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) will slash rates by a full percentage point this year.

More than market priced in of 75 basis

Punters love rate cuts …NZX could be the place to be this year

ONLY U and me HAD been thinking this way ....it's just the start ....may end the year UP 20% on Index basis ...fingers crossed and fully involved

[alokdhir]

With NZ10Y rate vs US10Y showing smallest gap in recent history ...NZD is very bearish ...all pointing to markets thinking NZ rates will tank faster than US .


NZX should have better year based on above info ...will it ?

[Rawz]

ONLY U and me HAD been thinking this way ....it's just the start ....may end the year UP 20% on Index basis ...fingers crossed and fully involved

Only you two? Lol

[bull....]

With NZ10Y rate vs US10Y showing smallest gap in recent history ...NZD is very bearish ...all pointing to markets thinking NZ rates will tank faster than US .


NZX should have better year based on above info ...will it ?

nzd very bearish cause economy stuffed at moment.
chickens coming home to roost now the property ponzi flat.
no big companies to produce real profits

[alokdhir]

nzd very bearish cause economy stuffed at moment.
chickens coming home to roost now the property ponzi flat.
no big companies to produce real profits

We should keep emotions out of financial decisions ...we all are market literate enough to understand that economy has to be in recession and labour market in doldrums before the big rate cuts can happen ...Conditions are getting there...Markets will keep rejoicing in 2024 in anticipation of lower rates thus higher multiples and better eps leading to higher valuations ...both multiples will expand and eps growth will happen ahead

FPH showed the way ...so will MFT and IFT and SUM etc ....Its aways past history of rate cycle repeating itself ...nothing different this time ....think 2010 onwards after GFC ....

[alokdhir]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/512619/bnp-paribas-focuses-on-offshore-investor-demand-for-nzx-listed-companies

[Bikeguy]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/512619/bnp-paribas-focuses-on-offshore-investor-demand-for-nzx-listed-companies

Thank you, great article,

[bull....]

We should keep emotions out of financial decisions ...we all are market literate enough to understand that economy has to be in recession and labour market in doldrums before the big rate cuts can happen ...Conditions are getting there...Markets will keep rejoicing in 2024 in anticipation of lower rates thus higher multiples and better eps leading to higher valuations ...both multiples will expand and eps growth will happen ahead

FPH showed the way ...so will MFT and IFT and SUM etc ....Its aways past history of rate cycle repeating itself ...nothing different this time ....think 2010 onwards after GFC ....

you forgot to mention inflation down to 2% lol cause that what ORR job measured on now.

[winner69]

We should keep emotions out of financial decisions ...we all are market literate enough to understand that economy has to be in recession and labour market in doldrums before the big rate cuts can happen ...Conditions are getting there...Markets will keep rejoicing in 2024 in anticipation of lower rates thus higher multiples and better eps leading to higher valuations ...both multiples will expand and eps growth will happen ahead

FPH showed the way ...so will MFT and IFT and SUM etc ....Its aways past history of rate cycle repeating itself ...nothing different this time ....think 2010 onwards after GFC ....


2009;was the year of the big rate cuts

[causecelebre]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/512619/bnp-paribas-focuses-on-offshore-investor-demand-for-nzx-listed-companies

thanks for the link though it’s hard for me to take anything other than a cursory interest in anyone talking their own book

[alokdhir]

you forgot to mention inflation down to 2% lol cause that what ORR job measured on now.

I dont know why u still thinking bearish ? Maybe not yet. done your shopping !! U r savvy enough to know whats happening in market will be the trend ahead ....two up days one down day type ...


PS : Grab some KFL and sleep peacefully for next 5-7 years ...still giving u NZX blue chips at almost 10% discount...lol

[winner69]

There’s a lot of chatter that one of most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations.

For ages it has been sround 2.0%-2.5%, but there’s increasing evidence that in future it may be higher, even 4-5%.

[alokdhir]

There’s a lot of chatter that one of most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations.

For ages it has been sround 2.0%-2.5%, but there’s increasing evidence that in future it may be higher, even 4-5%.

This chatter equates to similar ideas not. so long ago suggesting neutral rates moving notch down from LT averages ...

Inflation control ...main purpose of rates ...so if one. study Inflation expectations ...its reasons etc. then one can drive future LT rates expectations

Recent Inflation flare up was caused by mainly supply side issues / sudden spurt in demand after pandemic shift in human behaviour and excess supply of money to keep masses in good mood while locked or in mental distress caused by pandemic conditions etc ...all these are one off not regular features to be included in LT analysis ...

But on the other hand AI has the. potential to BOOST tremendously human productivity thus causing supply side GLUT leading to very benign rates outlook

I am in the latter AI driven productivity boost supply glut camp thus in benign rates outlook ...LT rates can only come down not move up ...if Inflation control is their only objective ...not politics etc

[winner69]

This chatter equates to similar ideas not. so long ago suggesting neutral rates moving notch down from LT averages ...

Inflation control ...main purpose of rates ...so if one. study Inflation expectations ...its reasons etc. then one can drive future LT rates expectations

Recent Inflation flare up was caused by mainly supply side issues / sudden spurt in demand after pandemic shift in human behaviour and excess supply of money to keep masses in good mood while locked or in mental distress caused by pandemic conditions etc ...all these are one off not regular features to be included in LT analysis ...

But on the other hand AI has the. potential to BOOST tremendously human productivity thus causing supply side GLUT leading to very benign rates outlook

I am in the latter AI driven productivity boost supply glut camp thus in benign rates outlook ...LT rates can only come down not move up ...if Inflation control is their only objective ...not politics etc

Hey alokdhir …yep AI might drive productivity per se but there’s a school of thought those displaced by AI will be flat out sorting out the mess it’s created to

[mike2020]

Hey alokdhir …yep AI might drive productivity per se but there’s a school of thought those displaced by AI will be flat out sorting out the mess it’s created to

Yes I heard someone on the radio yesterday talking unemployment rates you can't imagine. Across all levels of society.

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir …yep AI might drive productivity per se but there’s a school of thought those displaced by AI will be flat out sorting out the mess it’s created to

We will learn to be more retried in our lives earlier ...so I can understand people with no work but easy money will spend more and lead to more consumerism but that will be sorted via natural negative feedback loop built by nature ...excess of everything is naturally negative ...which is showing in general obesity levels compared to 100 years back ...thus the return of healthy eating trend !!

[bull....]

asx holding that 7600 breakout with a nice bounce up of 1% today ... new market highs soon ?

could be new market high's today on the ASX

german market latest market to go on fire , UK nearly there too for all time high's. NZ market one day anyway be the last easter of cheap chocolate if those cocoa prices stay where they are

[Daytr]

could be new market high's today on the ASX

german market latest market to go on fire , UK nearly there too for all time high's. NZ market one day

And Adrian Orr on RNZ this morning finally saying the economy is weakening, core inflation returning to the band & interest rates likely to start reducing.

No time frame offered, only lower rates are getting closer.

This should see further reductions in the 2 - 5 fixed rates.

[bull....]

looks like oil wants to break in to the 80s

holding the breakout

[bull....]

And Adrian Orr on RNZ this morning finally saying the economy is weakening, core inflation returning to the band & interest rates likely to start reducing.

No time frame offered, only lower rates are getting closer.

This should see further reductions in the 2 - 5 fixed rates.

he has to hope so as his mandate is inflation only now so if inflation doesnt meaningly fall this yr i expect he will crush the economy even more. you know he follows the phillip's curve mandate

[alokdhir]

holding the breakout

$ 90 is the soft top mate ...dont hold too long ....just heard on CNBC ...me just trying to take care of a buddy ...lol

[bull....]

$ 90 is the soft top mate ...dont hold too long ....just heard on CNBC ...me just trying to take care of a buddy ...lol

thx yea that 90 pivot level be interesting to watch. i help you out yest by buying some kfl lol , i follow your nta updates and discount was to big too miss a punt

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ai-revolution-why-the-speed-of-human-job-losses-is-causing-concern/HWFPHBD5QJAZFEZ66DG57KVCLU/

This maybe bad for general masses with low skills but great for companies to boost their profits and productivity

Heard on TV ...Tradies are the best job to train for presently as it will take the longest for AI to interfere with their work space ...

[Bjauck]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ai-revolution-why-the-speed-of-human-job-losses-is-causing-concern/HWFPHBD5QJAZFEZ66DG57KVCLU/

This maybe bad for general masses with low skills but great for companies to boost their profits and productivity

Heard on TV ...Tradies are the best job to train for presently as it will take the longest for AI to interfere with their work space ...Tax the resultant capital gains as well as profits to provide higher skilled retraining for those who lose their jobs. However this is NZ, so the increased returns will probably end up being invested in inflating land prices and our young people will head to Australia..

[bull....]

To add to NZ woeful economy we have racist segregation starting .

Auckland University Māori and Pasifika area: Education Minister Erica Stanford disagrees with Deputy PM Winston Peters' stance


"This is a designated area for Māori and Pasifika students. Thank you," reads the university Business School sign, which appeared to be located outside a study area

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2024/03/auckland-university-m-ori-and-pasifika-area-education-minister-erica-stanford-disagrees-with-deputy-pm-winston-peters-stance.html

[Bjauck]

To add to NZ woeful economy we have racist segregation starting .

Auckland University Māori and Pasifika area: Education Minister Erica Stanford disagrees with Deputy PM Winston Peters' stance


"This is a designated area for Māori and Pasifika students. Thank you," reads the university Business School sign, which appeared to be located outside a study area

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2024/03/auckland-university-m-ori-and-pasifika-area-education-minister-erica-stanford-disagrees-with-deputy-pm-winston-peters-stance.html
What is the Black Monday on the NZX relevance?

[bull....]

What is the Black Monday on the NZX relevance?

depends what int investors think of this development

[Rawz]

depends what int investors think of this development

those arears were there when I went to Uni 15 years ago. I remember none of the PI's went there lol. They studied with us honkeys in B1 or the library.

Waste of space aye

[bull....]

those arears were there when I went to Uni 15 years ago. I remember none of the PI's went there lol. They studied with us honkeys in B1 or the library.

Waste of space aye

lol i want to see a chinese and indian only area at the uni to better reflect the mainly dominate culture's of the uni

[causecelebre]

I didn't realise there was racial segregation at UA. Is it the M/PI don't want to hang with the rest or vice versa?

Anyway the Elections section of this Forum is probably where this convo should go as its clearly demonstrated there that this sort of discussion turns to custard quick smart

[Daytr]

What is the Black Monday on the NZX relevance?

It should have been called fire truck red Monday!

[Bjauck]

those arears were there when I went to Uni 15 years ago. I remember none of the PI's went there lol. They studied with us honkeys in B1 or the library.

Waste of space ayeI guess it us a token to help mollify liberal white guilt. So what would happen to a white looking person who would sit and study in the segregated area? Would they be removed by staff if they didn’t have the right I/d?

[Toddy]

Please stop. This is not the forum for racially based debate.

[bull....]

I guess it us a token to help mollify liberal white guilt. So what would happen to a white looking person who would sit and study in the segregated area? Would they be removed by staff if they didn’t have the right I/d?

interesting. how about a chinese person entering the room. anyway the moron education minister from nat and willy wan.ker thinking is back the front think its good having segregation but studies prove in the usa that blacks who live in segregated metro area's have lower level education , higher poverty etc than blacks who live in more integrated places

[Bjauck]

Please stop. This is not the forum for racially based debate. I tried to stop it too. I was overruled.

[Bobdn]

@Bull, ASX at all time highs as you predicted this morning.

Everything is too awesome at the moment. Doesn't feel right. And I'm a perma bull.

I'm holding a tiny bit of extra cash now and will attempt to time a market pull back. So expect the rally to continue.

[Relaxed]

That funny moment when you've had a great year and it has still only matched the S&P500 :))
NB-Returns includes net portfolio increase only. No adjustment for Withholding or Imputation Credits



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Returns to March
26.93%

S&P 500
26.0%

Diff to S&P 500
0.93%

[Bobdn]

Thats amazing though. Hardly anyone including me has got close to anywhere near S&P returns. I'm in indexes and ETFs but not all of them are created equal it seems. Eg my dividend aristocrat fund has not been the place to be.

Well done.

[Relaxed]

Thats amazing though. Hardly anyone including me has got close to anywhere near S&P returns. I'm in indexes and ETFs but not all of them are created equal it seems. Eg my dividend aristocrat fund has not been the place to be.

Well done.

Thanks
Long term there are lots of ways to invest and many of them will get you there.

Some let you sleep better at night :)
Fortunately mine let's me sleep, but it can be more exciting than I want.
Last year I didn't beat the S&P500

[winner69]

@Barchart on X
Copper hits most extreme level of contango in 30 years which could be a sign the global economy is facing some trouble

[Muse]

Copper hits most extreme level of contango in 30 years which could be a sign the global economy is facing some trouble

If spot prices are above future prices it would be in backwardation, but which generally regarded as a worry. So is the futures curve in contango or backwardation giving regard to futures relative to spot? Without referencing the x-bar tweet you lifted the post from

[Snoopy]

Copper hits most extreme level of contango in 30 years which could be a sign the global economy is facing some trouble.


Dancing the Contango in a copper leaf dress? Yes that is something I would pay to see.
But I guess I would have to go to Buenos Aires to see that? I do note that Argentina itself has been in the economic dog box for some decades now. Those problems may not extend globally as you suggest?

SNOOPY

[Baa_Baa]

Or keep an eye on the trillions of debt that 🇺🇸 government keep issuing. It can’t end well.

[Daytr]

@Barchart on X
Copper hits most extreme level of contango in 30 years which could be a sign the global economy is facing some trouble

My take is that means there has been some long term buying as the long forwards lend copper back to the market suppressing copper lease rates against USD interest rates, creating a strong contango.

[winner69]

2009 was interesting with oil trading in contando …..many tankers were kept at sea with traders hoping to get the better priçes a bit later on.

[Valuegrowth]

Coco is more expensive than copper. Those who went long on coco beat others. At different time different commodity and stocks will outperform others. Stocks and commodities are hitting all time high and new all-time high before coming big sell-off.


https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/cocoa-short-squeeze-explained

https://gulfnews.com/business/retail/cocoa-breaks-10000-record-with-pricier-chocolate-to-follow-1.1711465706552

"Cocoa futures surged above an unprecedented $10,000 a metric ton, extending a historic rally that's already seen prices double this year and which is raising the cost of chocolate."

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/the-bizarrely-overvalued-stock-market-is-poised-for-a-big-correction-and-the-smart-money-is-moving-into-cash-chief-strategist-says/ar-BB1kDwn4

"Red flags are arising in the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, and multiples mirror levels seen prior to the dot-com bubble crash.
"Every single indicator seems to tell us we're in a historic, historic bubble," Dietrich said. "It's hard to look at that and say that we're not going to see a major, major correction coming. Now is not the time to be putting new money in the market," he warned.
The biggest indicator of a coming correction is "smart money" investors, who are moving out of the stock market and into safer cash equivalents, Dietrich said. He pointed to recent stock sales from billionaires like Jeff Bezos (https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-50-million-amazon-shares-sell-off-is-complete-2024-2#:~:text=Jeff%20Bezos'%20great%20big%20February%2 0stock%20sell%2Doff%20is%20complete&text=Jeff%20Bezos%20has%20finished%20selling,to%20 step%20down%20as%20CEO.), Warren Buffett (https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-letter-munger-berkshire-annual-shareholder-stock-speculation-ai-2024-2), and the Walton family (https://www.businessinsider.com/life-of-the-walton-family-behind-walmart-and-sams-club-2018-12), the heirs to the Walmart empire, as a sign big investors sense the market is poised to correct."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/what-could-spark-the-next-stock-market-selloff-here-s-what-history-tells-us/ar-BB1kz247

[bull....]

Coco is more expensive than copper. Those who went long on coco beat others. At different time different commodity and stocks will outperform others. Stocks and commodities are hitting all time high and new all-time high before coming big sell-off.


https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/cocoa-short-squeeze-explained

https://gulfnews.com/business/retail/cocoa-breaks-10000-record-with-pricier-chocolate-to-follow-1.1711465706552

"Cocoa futures surged above an unprecedented $10,000 a metric ton, extending a historic rally that's already seen prices double this year and which is raising the cost of chocolate."





yep berserk mentioned chocolate on here a number of times in the last mth

[alokdhir]

SML will be first causality of this rate cycle ...underlines the importance of holding well managed low debt companies ...especially like current times .

Highly geared and badly managed companies also do well in low rates environment but higher rates time seperate the men from boys very easily

Will that happen further in retirement village stocks ...RYM got into trouble early and still trying to pull his head over water ...SUM is the clear winner ...even while geared enough ...they managed well ...TRA and HLG also came out shining

[alokdhir]

Top ten highest paid NZ CEOs
1

John Cullity
$8,424,045


EBOS





2

David Bortolussi
$5,833,127


A2 MILK COMPANY





3

Miles Hurrell
$4,607,582


FONTERRA





4

Ross Taylor
$3,703,797


FLETCHER BUILDING





5

Lewis Gradon
$3,672,242


FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE





6

Vittoria Shortt
$3,562,357


ASB BANK





7

Don Braid
$3,534,949


MAINFREIGHT





8

Vince Hawksworth
$3,357,981


MERCURY





9

David Mair
$3,293,000


SKELLERUP





10

Greg Foran
$3,133,918


AIR NEW ZEALAND


Just wondering how this works ? Is job of EBOS CEO twice as difficult then others ??

[Bjauck]

That funny moment when you've had a great year and it has still only matched the S&P500 :))
NB-Returns includes net portfolio increase only. No adjustment for Withholding or Imputation Credits



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Returns to March
26.93%

S&P 500
26.0%

Diff to S&P 500
0.93%
Your investment portfolio has done very well. Surely it would make no sense for a NZ based investor to be 100% invested in the USA S&P500. Even the most risk taking portfolio should have some non-American investments and some NZ based investments or term deposits/cash. Yes the American big seven stocks have done well this year.

[Relaxed]

Your investment portfolio has done very well. Surely it would make no sense for a NZ based investor to be 100% invested in the USA S&P500. Even the most risk taking portfolio should have some non-American investments and some NZ based investments or term deposits/cash. Yes the American big seven stocks have done well this year.

Thank you.

But, I'm not 100% in the US. I just use the S&P500 as a rough "am I doing better than the index" guide.
ie, is the effort actually worth it :)

I'm invested in five countries and 12 different market segments.
Although that is a false picture because some of the companies are themselves across dozens of countries and markets.

I have also managed to miss all of Nvidia and Microsoft, most of Google and Amazon and lots of other good companies.

[bull....]

oil on a tear 90 pivot test ?

[Joshuatree]

oil on a tear 90 pivot test ?

And Natural Gas dropped way back to re 2020 levels ,!?

[bull....]

And Natural Gas dropped way back to re 2020 levels ,!?

might be why my woodside shares are not performing yet ? US oil shares doing well though

[bull....]

seems nz gold investors are cashing in

Kiwis take advantage of record gold prices, cash in investments
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/513222/kiwis-take-advantage-of-record-gold-prices-cash-in-investments

[Joshuatree]

might be why my woodside shares are not performing yet ? US oil shares doing well though

Yeah mine too, X divi,an impairment,environmental activists,out of favour and gas prices,where's the bottom

[winner69]

Hey bull what’s going on …US markets down, US 10 year up, gold up and oil up

[Daytr]

And Natural Gas dropped way back to re 2020 levels ,!?

Biden's ban on Nat Gas exports has decimated the price which has worked well to curb inflation, but will cause production cuts over time.


Hey bull what’s going on …US markets down, US 10 year up, gold up and oil up

Looks like the market is reading into delays in the Fed lowering interest rates, so dollar weakened, equities down. Tesla had a poor quarter...

[bull....]

Hey bull what’s going on …US markets down, US 10 year up, gold up and oil up

tax time us markets this mth.
are you selling your gold bar door stops ?

[causecelebre]

US markets are well overdue for a healthy retracement

[winner69]

Stats nz that the pace of jobs growth continues to slow – up 2.1% on a year ago and now clearly fallen below the rate of growth in the working-age population (up 3.1% on a year ago)l

Suggests unemployment rate will go up

[Bjauck]

Thank you.

But, I'm not 100% in the US. I just use the S&P500 as a rough "am I doing better than the index" guide.
ie, is the effort actually worth it :)

I'm invested in five countries and 12 different market segments.
Although that is a false picture because some of the companies are themselves across dozens of countries and markets.

I have also managed to miss all of Nvidia and Microsoft, most of Google and Amazon and lots of other good companies. I would have thought a world index like one of the Vanguard etfs would be more appropriate as a benchmark. Certainly your portfolio produced a good return, especially if it included your fixed interest investments and cash. I use a blended benchmark of Ishares global, ishares s&p500, NZX50.

[Valuegrowth]

US markets are well overdue for a healthy retracement Other overvlaued stock markets will follow USA market.

[Relaxed]

I would have thought a world index like one of the Vanguard etfs would be more appropriate as a benchmark. Certainly your portfolio produced a good return, especially if it included your fixed interest investments and cash. I use a blended benchmark of Ishares global, ishares s&p500, NZX50.

Fair enough.
It's just the index I have always used and suits my needs.
I'm not going for 'best match' just a sensible index to measure against. over the last few years the US has been more than 100% of my portfolio gains

I hold some cash and no fixed interest. I want to have some fixed interest but can't bring myself to take the hit in performance :)
However, the certainty of income is appealing, just not quite appealing enough yet.

as an aside, my personal time horizon is 10 years so a few years performance is only the start of a trend. For me.
and
I usually buy and hold for ages (forever is preferred, but obviously that doesn't always work out)

[Bobdn]

https://youtu.be/JlgMSDYnT2o?si=Vr-1xRTeLUqh9puD

Fixed interest really is overrated.

[bull....]

looks like something up , bitcoin and oil rocking and markets tanking

[Toddy]

Just sticky inflation. Volatility is healthy for the markets.

[Rawz]

Something needs to blow up to kill inflation bug and bring down rates

[Daytr]

One of the FED members said that if inflation remained elevated then there may not be a cut this year.

Dollar stronger but Crude still higher which is a concern.

Company profits on the whole have been doing well despite the higher interest rates especially in the big end of town, Tesla aside. So there's no reason that this isn't just a healthy correction.

[bull....]

One of the FED members said that if inflation remained elevated then there may not be a cut this year.

Dollar stronger but Crude still higher which is a concern.

Company profits on the whole have been doing well despite the higher interest rates especially in the big end of town, Tesla aside. So there's no reason that this isn't just a healthy correction.

also just out isreal evacuating all worldwide embassies , calling up all army people cause of imminent iran attack

[causecelebre]

One of the FED members said that if inflation remained elevated then there may not be a cut this year.

Dollar stronger but Crude still higher which is a concern.

Company profits on the whole have been doing well despite the higher interest rates especially in the big end of town, Tesla aside. So there's no reason that this isn't just a healthy correction.

Yeah unlike the government, corporates refinanced during zirp and now sitting on cheap debt, US homeowners with 30 year mortgages are still levered at record low interest rates

[Panda-NZ-]

One of the FED members said that if inflation remained elevated then there may not be a cut this year.



They're waiting for unemployment to go up... but the developed world has an aging population so of course it won't.

The workforce is retiring and there's not enough young people.

[winner69]

Market loved the US jobs data overnight eh bull

[Daytr]

Market loved the US jobs data overnight eh bull

Pretty strong huh.
Typical Friday short covering.
Put in a small short just on the close on the DOW.

[ValueNZ]

The Vltava fund's Q1 shareholder letter is worth a read for anyone interested.


https://www.vltavafund.com/data/dopisy/dopis_80_en.pdf

[Valuegrowth]

Contrary to predictions, end of inflation, hard landing, global recession,stagflation or deflation are getting postponed. On the other hand selected commodities and stocks are hitting all time high and new all time-high. It has become a stock and commodity picker’s market.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/extreme-illogical-and-dangerous-jeremy-grantham-warns-of-bubble-within-a-bubble-in-us-stock-market-but-here-s-what-he-still-finds-relatively-attractive/ar-BB1laFXB?cvid=842075bce2b7465885e7b2297803e5a7&ei=5

“The only bull markets that continued up from levels like this were the last 18 months in Japan until 1989, and the U.S. tech bubble of 1998 and 1999, and we know how those ended,” he remarked.“

[bull....]

Market loved the US jobs data overnight eh bull

how your gold going winner
yes good jobs data. i like dayt took a small hedge on fri , volatility is picking up now so might see some big swings going forward. market 5 mths without a correction 25% up , 9 trillion added to peoples pockets some of which will flow thru to spending etc add in oil rise and geo - risks and structural changes to logistics fed should have 3% inflation target not 2% as world changing. then cuts still possible.

fed govenors more balanced in views now rather than all cuts now very much saying data dependant

even rise some say

Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/fed-governor-bowman-says-additional-rate-hike-could-be-needed-if-inflation-stays-high.html


Fearless Stock Bulls Start Hedging as Fed Policy Pivot Stalls
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-06/fearless-stock-bulls-start-hedging-as-fed-policy-pivot-stalls?srnd=homepage-asia

Extreme Market Swings Dominate as Hot Economy, Oil Feed Anxiety
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/extreme-market-swings-dominate-as-hot-economy-oil-feed-anxiety?srnd=homepage-asia

[Valuegrowth]

Prof:Jeremy Siegel still thinks opportunities outside the tech sector. I agree as It is the final stage of current long bull market. As per the following link it’s also true the stock market can fire on all cylinders but eventually it will follow the next big sell-off.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeremy-siegel-says-stock-market-103200841.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

According to Jeremy Siegel, economist, and professor of finance at the WhartonSchool of the University of Pennsylvania, the uptrend in stocks is here to stay.

[bull....]

decision time US markets tomorrow

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/asia-stocks-rise-metals-fly-on-manufacturing-bets/ar-BB1lj7Fe

"In Shanghai, the most-traded May copper futures rose more than 1% to a record high, while zinc and tin made multi-month peaks and aluminium traded just below Monday's two-year top.

Among Asian bourses, Taiwan stocks touched a record high, led by a more than 4% jump in shares of TSMC after the world's largest contract chipmaker won a $6.6 billion subsidy for an Arizona production plant.

The Australian dollar is up almost 2% in a week and traded at $0.6605 on Tuesday. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-week high of $0.6047 in morning trade."

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.investing.com/indices/asian-pacific-indices

[bull....]

A landmark ruling in Europe’s top rights court delivers a watershed moment for climate litigation
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/swiss-women-win-historic-victory-at-europes-top-human-rights-court.html

[Ggcc]

A landmark ruling in Europe’s top rights court delivers a watershed moment for climate litigation
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/09/swiss-women-win-historic-victory-at-europes-top-human-rights-court.html
That will be more tax hikes on the agenda for Swiss politicians. Not a mild one either, maybe 20%+ hikes for the short term and then some more for good measure, to “tackle climate change”

[Bobdn]

I just wonder if these rulings will make Europe even less competitive, if that's possible, and strengthen China and India?

[winner69]

OCR day today

Wouldn’t surprise me if our Adrian packed a sad and said stuff you lot I’m cutting rates …to 5.0% with more to next time

He probably heard Mike on the radio this morning lamenting that fashion icon Kate Sylvester was closing after 31 years …as Mike says probably because Adrian has strangled the economy

Looking forward to 2pm

[bull....]

That will be more tax hikes on the agenda for Swiss politicians. Not a mild one either, maybe 20%+ hikes for the short term and then some more for good measure, to “tackle climate change”

probably opens the door now for more people to take there govt's to court on climate in -action. green's in nz ?

[bull....]

OCR day today

Wouldn’t surprise me if our Adrian packed a sad and said stuff you lot I’m cutting rates …to 5.0% with more to next time

He probably heard Mike on the radio this morning lamenting that fashion icon Kate Sylvester was closing after 31 years …as Mike says probably because Adrian has strangled the economy

Looking forward to 2pm

you need to focus on what really matters winner. that is CPI in the US tomorrow 12.30 am NZ time.

[Ggcc]

probably opens the door now for more people to take there govt's to court on climate in -action. green's in nz ?
100% correct and the only answer the government will be able to respond to meet these goals is more taxes and huge tax increases, so they can cover those costs. A death sentence for any political party

[winner69]

you need to focus on what really matters winner. that is CPI in the US tomorrow 12.30 am NZ time.

A day at a time bull

The RBNZ needs to start cutting interest rates tomorrow- Squirrel CEO

Pressure mounting on Adrian

[bull....]

A day at a time bull

The RBNZ needs to start cutting interest rates tomorrow- Squirrel CEO

Pressure mounting on Adrian

most people think ORR will do nothing , nz economy not in the gutter enough yet to cut

[bull....]

no wonder nz market in doldrum's all going in to US

Almost half a billion dollars ($488m) was traded on Sharesies retail investment platform in March, the highest in the company’s six-year history
The popularity of tech stocks led Sharesies investors to focus on the US

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976523008/sharesies-has-biggest-trading-yet.html

[Daytr]

How's that short going Bull?
I took profit early this morning which was lucky as the DOW came right back.
I have now reopened the position again awaiting the CPI.
I am a little nervous as the market seems to be set for a reasonably high number 3.4% up from 3.2%.
The recent increases in the oil price probably won't have registered yet.

[bull....]

How's that short going Bull?
I took profit early this morning which was lucky as the DOW came right back.
I have now reopened the position again awaiting the CPI.
I am a little nervous as the market seems to be set for a reasonably high number 3.4% up from 3.2%.
The recent increases in the oil price probably won't have registered yet.

i have short on for hedging purposes for CPI and tax selling in US which drains liquidity from market to pay IRS

[Bobdn]

OCR needs to go negative today - less than 0. NZ is in the depths of a recession.

Inflation is under control thanks to the Warehouse grocery line. Butter $4.30, eggs, $5. Farm gate mik: $3

[causecelebre]

OCR held at 5.5%

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/mortgages/key-rates-move-higher-for-homebuyers-mortgage-rates-on-april-9-2024/

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Moves Past 7% Again

[Valuegrowth]

Those who bet, on tech stocks, dividend growth stocks, cyclicals which include commodities, financial stocks and emerging-markets stocks while ignoring interest rate noise have become big winners. They were ideal stocks to hold during period of high rates. long-term interest rates are going up again.

[winner69]

You know when the works gone mad (..and maybe lost the plot)

NZX leader board at the moment

CRAP
TWL
PEB
BAI
MEE

[cyclist]

OCR needs to go negative today - less than 0. NZ is in the depths of a recession.

Haha. Are you trying to wind Aaron up?

[Bobdn]

No no Im not aware of Aaron's call. Just having some fun.

But while I'm here, despite knowing that nothing beats total market funds eg VT, or VOO, or VTI, and dividend investing is sub optimal (I have dividend funds despite knowing this), I added SCHD yesterday because I saw a YT video.

That's the power of social media combined with boredom. I'll check in in about 10 years and detail its under performance against the total market.

[Ggcc]

You know when the works gone mad (..and maybe lost the plot)

NZX leader board at the moment

CRAP
TWL
PEB
BAI
MEE
Or you are betting on the wrong horse... Although so am I

[bull....]

hot CPI , initial market reaction savage on the downside. june rate cut disappearing. anyway time to play fortnite and watch the action lol the team awaits

[visionary]

hot CPI , initial market reaction savage on the downside. june rate cut disappearing. anyway time to play fortnite and watch the action lol the team awaits

I have had a 6-figure short on the ASX Index since Feb 16th, it would be nice to observe my market prediction take place - I am certainly not getting a lot of profit elsewhere since exitting GTK at $5.99 for a 45% ROI.

ERD is a train wreck, SML has continued to be a basketcase since they started on their PC clean green machine garbage approach to running a company, THL will be great long term but has not shone through, and SAN has done the opposite of what I thought it would do since buying at the start of COVID.

Fortunately, my ASX investments have kept my head above water and my reputation with my wife intact.

Just gimmie 10%, oh please kind sir, I deserve some bread and water too :)

[Daytr]

hot CPI , initial market reaction savage on the downside. june rate cut disappearing. anyway time to play fortnite and watch the action lol the team awaits

It's been a good few days playing from the short side, however have learnt when short take profit even if leaving money on the table.

Dare I say it, does a rate hike come back to the table? Unless their is peace in the mid/east it's hard to see oil coming back any time soon.

I always thought it was mad that the US was talking nearby cuts when their stock markets were screaming higher to new records every day or so.

[bull....]

It's been a good few days playing from the short side, however have learnt when short take profit even if leaving money on the table.

Dare I say it, does a rate hike come back to the table? Unless their is peace in the mid/east it's hard to see oil coming back any time soon.

I always thought it was mad that the US was talking nearby cuts when their stock markets were screaming higher to new records every day or so.

all the money was made in the 15mins after announcement , pretty choppy after that. Im surprised your not following the short term trend down. historicaaly days before tax due date are normally down i believe and got PPI tomorrow. but i get sometimes better to take whats given

[Leemsip]

I have had a 6-figure short on the ASX Index since Feb 16th, it would be nice to observe my market prediction take place - I am certainly not getting a lot of profit elsewhere since exitting GTK at $5.99 for a 45% ROI.

ERD is a train wreck, SML has continued to be a basketcase since they started on their PC clean green machine garbage approach to running a company, THL will be great long term but has not shone through, and SAN has done the opposite of what I thought it would do since buying at the start of COVID.

Fortunately, my ASX investments have kept my head above water and my reputation with my wife intact.

Just gimmie 10%, oh please kind sir, I deserve some bread and water too :)

Hard to make money on the NZX at the mo... Im mostly ASX
What stocks and themes are you playing on the ASX?

[Daytr]

all the money was made in the 15mins after announcement , pretty choppy after that. Im surprised your not following the short term trend down. historicaaly days before tax due date are normally down i believe and got PPI tomorrow. but i get sometimes better to take whats given

In and out twice in quick time has worked very well so far.
Will look to re-enter again at some point.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/hong-kongs-latest-problem-is-99-nosedive-2024-04-10/

"The stock price of China Tianrui Group Cement plunged 99% in 15 minutes before Hong Kong’s stock market closed on April 9, slashing the Henan-based cement maker’s market value to only HK$141 million from HK$14.6 billion ($1.9 billion)."

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/egpbagozovq/chart.png

[Filthy]

The stock price of China Tianrui Group Cement plunged 99% in 15 minutes[/IMG]

geez, that makes SML's 94% drop in 5 Years look good eh!

[Filthy]

I guess that depends on if you prefer a death by a thousand cuts or by guillotine though....

[Joshuatree]

Japan has taken 34 years to reach its peak from back then , in the last few days! Deflation has been its problem most of the time.

[LEMON]

Iran threats on retaliation of Israel bombing its Embassy in Damascus a week ago, is seriously heating up.

[Valuegrowth]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-unraveling-us-rate-cut-050416881.html

"Bond investors are already feeling the pain, as they reposition portfolios amidst a weeks-long selloff that has hammered Treasury prices. Benchmark 10-year yields, which move inversely to bond prices, hit their highest level since November on Wednesday as they breached 4.5%."

[bull....]

hey winner , gold roaring new high's. See costco selling heap's of gold bars at moment fomo eh

coffee starting to make move now too. jeepers i uenjoy coffee and chocolate in the middle of the night might get expensive next yr.

[Valuegrowth]

hey winner , gold roaring new high's. See costco selling heap's of gold bars at moment fomo eh

coffee starting to make move now too. jeepers i uenjoy coffee and chocolate in the middle of the night might get expensive next yr.

Inflation is not going to end very easily. As a regular quality coffee and tea drinker I can see both coffee and tea prices have doubled. I was able to take positions on few beverage stocks when I visited supermarkets few years back. Surprisingly, yesterday I was able to buy quality coffee made in Italy at a grate price. Going forward if beverage prices go up further, I may have another great opportunity. Overall commodity stocks are ideal seasonal plays and investment for Intelligent market participants.

https://dailycoffeenews.com/2024/04/09/italian-firm-completes-50-acquisition-of-massimo-zanetti-beverage-group/
Italian Firm Completes 50% Acquisition of Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group

[thegreatestben]

I already stopped drinking unhealthy stuff and instead started drinking locally made Apple 100% Juice no added sugar or flavours whichis very healthy.


You might want to add a disclaimer that it's healthy for a bot but really bad for human beings.

[causecelebre]

You might want to add a disclaimer that it's healthy for a bot but really bad for human beings.

haha.....gold.....i always had my suspicions

[Leemsip]

ah me too. the chat from valuegrowth always too predictable...
Bots got to spice up their game a bit

[Valuegrowth]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities

Commodities Top Performers



EEX Strom Phelix Baseload Year Future (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/eex-strompreis)
4.93%
99.00 EUR


Coffee (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coffee-price)
2.86%
2.21 USD


Coal (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price)
2.28%
121.00 USD


Palladium (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/palladium-price)
2.17%
1,058.00 USD


Platinum (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/platinum-price)
1.59%
991.50 US

[bull....]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities

Commodities Top Performers



EEX Strom Phelix Baseload Year Future (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/eex-strompreis)
4.93%
99.00 EUR


Coffee (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coffee-price)
2.86%
2.21 USD


Coal (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price)
2.28%
121.00 USD


Palladium (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/palladium-price)
2.17%
1,058.00 USD


Platinum (https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/platinum-price)
1.59%
991.50 US
















commodities taking off ( have to be nimble on these things), obviously without most sharetrader posters i would say

anyway

Retail spending by Kiwis fell 0.7 per cent, or $45 million, in March when compared with February, Stats NZ said today.
This follows a 2 per cent decline in the previous month

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/tough-times-for-retail-continue-as-spending-falls-further-in-march/NJ75J7U74NALFEG3DOOZ4QXD4A/

probably needs to collapse more to get inflation down eh + add in a couple hundred more unemployed

[alokdhir]

US markets looking topish for next few months ...shud settle in a range now ...maybe 4800-5200 . Thus. US ETFs will stop performing and NZ blue chips will catch up ....That shud help my picks ...lol ...I will watch US. ETFs like USF /USG/USS vs FPH /MFT/IFT/SUM for next 3 months ...maybe they will outperform in this period

Markets will readjust to rates expectations ...higher for longer part will get incorporated in SPs but I am not expecting big deviations as multiple expansion part SP growth due to rates coming down will get replaced with EPS growth led SP growth ...both shud balance each other in near future thus range bound markets till this impasse is broken ...2024 end story

[Grimy]

Glad you've posted alokdhir - was thinking you'd gone awol! Have missed your KFL contributions lately.

[alokdhir]

Glad you've posted alokdhir - was thinking you'd gone awol! Have missed your KFL contributions lately.

Thanks mate for your encouragement ...me always around ...KFL is on auto pilot ...that whisky is getting aged for more mellow fun latter ...KFL is a marathon runner ...slow and steady but surely will bear fruits like always :p

[Grimy]

I'm with you on that. An easy way to have a selection of companies I don't have individually. Enjoy your whisky!

[bull....]

bitcoin tanking at moment and stock futures are moving as well

Iran launches drones at Israel in retaliatory attack
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053

[ynot]

bitcoin tanking at moment and stock futures are moving as well

Iran launches drones at Israel in retaliatory attack
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053

Bitcoin down 7% , Doggy down 20%.

[LEMON]

Iran threats on retaliation of Israel bombing its Embassy in Damascus a week ago, is seriously heating up.

Queue the war generals of Sharetrader giving us their nuclear chatter.

This Iran attack was obvious, they were literally telling us, same warnings on the Russia attack on Ukraine. Gold was telling us, oil was telling us, Bitcoin was telling us. Expect inflation to get out of control IF this escalates badly. Hold hard assets, that was goal. Let's pray it's a heavy demonstration from Iran after thr Embassy attack from Israel, since Israel was anticipating the attack and Iran was delivering warnings for 2 weeks now.

[LEMON]

Glad i loaded up on prepay fuel 2 days ago with Z app, wonder how bad prices will rise in NZ if this drags on

[LEMON]

Iran Statement

IRAN MISSION TO UN ON X TWEETS: CONDUCTED ON THE STRENGTH OF ARTICLE 51 OF THE UN CHARTER PERTAINING TO LEGITIMATE DEFENSE, IRAN’S MILITARY ACTION WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE ZIONIST REGIME’S AGGRESSION AGAINST OUR DIPLOMATIC PREMISES IN DAMASCUS. THE MATTER CAN BE DEEMED CONCLUDED. HOWEVER, SHOULD THE ISRAELI REGIME MAKE ANOTHER MISTAKE, IRAN’S RESPONSE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE. IT IS A CONFLICT BETWEEN IRAN AND THE ROGUE ISRAELI REGIME, FROM WHICH THE U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!

[Bjauck]

Iran Statement

IRAN MISSION TO UN ON X TWEETS: CONDUCTED ON THE STRENGTH OF ARTICLE 51 OF THE UN CHARTER PERTAINING TO LEGITIMATE DEFENSE, IRAN’S MILITARY ACTION WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE ZIONIST REGIME’S AGGRESSION AGAINST OUR DIPLOMATIC PREMISES IN DAMASCUS. THE MATTER CAN BE DEEMED CONCLUDED. HOWEVER, SHOULD THE ISRAELI REGIME MAKE ANOTHER MISTAKE, IRAN’S RESPONSE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE SEVERE. IT IS A CONFLICT BETWEEN IRAN AND THE ROGUE ISRAELI REGIME, FROM WHICH THE U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!
The Markets will be like a Jackson Pollock painting tomorrow!

[alokdhir]

Nothing big will happen ...this. is a face saving act and will be seen as such ...though it gives chance to Israel to do further and big damage to Iran's nuclear ambitions ....will they ? I think US will encourage them to get rid of nuclear ambitions of. Iran and that shud be possible ...may lead to bigger trouble but maybe worth the trouble in US and Israel's eyes .

Markets may have knee jerk reaction lasting few days maximum ...then will revert to fundamentals of rates and eps growths

[LEMON]

Nothing big will happen ...this. is a face saving act and will be seen as such ...though it gives chance to Israel to do further and big damage to Iran's nuclear ambitions ....will they ? I think US will encourage them to get rid of nuclear ambitions of. Iran and that shud be possible ...may lead to bigger trouble but maybe worth the trouble in US and Israel's eyes .

Markets may have knee jerk reaction lasting few days maximum ...then will revert to fundamentals of rates and eps growths




Agree, i believe we are mid way into a bull market with lots of corrections along the way.

[mistymountain]

Agree, i believe we are mid way into a bull market with lots of corrections along the way.

Agree but with proviso bull market in hard Commodities: specifically Oil / Energy and all of the Precious Metals.

Disagree that this War Business is all over from today's Iranian response. The US will not read that quoted text. Say " fair enough" and all sail home saying those Iranians talk common sense.

[Valuegrowth]

bitcoin tanking at moment and stock futures are moving as well

Iran launches drones at Israel in retaliatory attack


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053

Geo political crisis could lead to more volatility. Investors will go for safe havens.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/volatility-alert-brace-for-a-big-spike-in-the-cboe-volatility-index-vix/ar-BB1lwQ6X

[Valuegrowth]

For now, futures are not looking good. Sentiment might change if three is a positive development in the political world. Safe havens like bonds, Defensive stocks (Food, Health products, telecoms, utilities etc) and certain commodities are ideal places to park money during times of market turbulences.

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

[Daytr]

For now, futures are not looking good. Sentiment might change if three is a positive development in the political world. Safe havens like bonds, Defensive stocks (Food, Health products, telecoms, utilities etc) and certain commodities are ideal places to park money during times of market turbulences.

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

I think it's going to be pretty hard for Netanyahu to justify any tit for tat retaliation when it was him that bombed Iran's embassy in Syria.
Doesn't seem like there is much appetite from the US either, not that that has stopped Netanyahu in the past.

[Valuegrowth]

As expected markets didn't tank and energy prices didn't rocket. Surprise?

[bull....]

As expected markets didn't tank and energy prices didn't rocket. Surprise?

tanking now , last tax day today. anyway correction mode evident now from nov rally

[Daytr]

tanking now , last tax day today. anyway correction mode evident now from nov rally

Do you really think tax period was much of an influence. I assume you are referring to people selling their shares to fund their tax bill ?
Is that correct?

[bull....]

Do you really think tax period was much of an influence. I assume you are referring to people selling their shares to fund their tax bill ?
Is that correct?

probably more of an effect this yr because of the strong gains in US market last yr. historical evidence as well it has some effect leading up to the 15th. obviously other data impacts as well ie isreal and they have just saying they will retaliate

[causecelebre]

Do you really think tax period was much of an influence. I assume you are referring to people selling their shares to fund their tax bill ?
Is that correct?

I wonder how many are shorting against the box to lock in profits without the tax issues

[Valuegrowth]

tanking now , last tax day today. anyway correction mode evident now from nov rally It seems to me that overvalued stocks are going to have big sell-off sooner than later. Time to stay with hidden gems and quality stocks with attractive valuation.

[bull....]

I have had a 6-figure short on the ASX Index since Feb 16th, it would be nice to observe my market prediction take place - I am certainly not getting a lot of profit elsewhere since exitting GTK at $5.99 for a 45% ROI.

ERD is a train wreck, SML has continued to be a basketcase since they started on their PC clean green machine garbage approach to running a company, THL will be great long term but has not shone through, and SAN has done the opposite of what I thought it would do since buying at the start of COVID.

Fortunately, my ASX investments have kept my head above water and my reputation with my wife intact.

Just gimmie 10%, oh please kind sir, I deserve some bread and water too :)

asx getting pummelled today , could slip back into its 2 yr range :scared: meaning it was a fake breakout therefore your mega short might go gangbusters

[bull....]

Fed’s Powell: Elevated inflation will likely delay rate cuts this year
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-powell-cuts-c60436c5e719ce95fc487fdb98395d09

wonder if we will get same reaction from ORR after today's CPI ?

[Daytr]

Fed’s Powell: Elevated inflation will likely delay rate cuts this year
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-powell-cuts-c60436c5e719ce95fc487fdb98395d09

wonder if we will get same reaction from ORR after today's CPI ?

The Kiwi Bank economist on RNZ this morning pointed out that the double digit increases in rates & insurance is going to keep inflation stubbornly elevated.

Hopefully the RBNZ is smart enough to know these two significant items just suck money out of the economy and will slow the demand for 'things'. They would be smart to ignore these distortions from the core inflation numbers. But are they smart?

On another note, I see the VIX is only marginally higher & is trading around the five year average, so for all the global tension, the VIX is treating it as trading pretty much as usual.

[Valuegrowth]

Fed’s Powell: Elevated inflation will likely delay rate cuts this year
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-powell-cuts-c60436c5e719ce95fc487fdb98395d09

wonder if we will get same reaction from ORR after today's CPI ?If oil prices hit above $100 as a result of geo politics many industries will hit and inflation will go up further. Consumer purchasing power will drop further. Demand for EVs are falling. Cash rich companies will make more cash thanks to high rates. Highly leveraged companies will struggle.

[kiora]

Potentially not good for little old NZ
"WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH DAIRY COWS AND BIRD FLU?"
https://hub.jhu.edu/2024/04/15/qa-avian-flu-in-cows/
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/new-zealand-vigilant-as-us-dairy-herds-catch-bird-flu?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=14751f4897-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-14751f4897-446239310

[causecelebre]

Fed’s Powell: Elevated inflation will likely delay rate cuts this year


https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-powell-cuts-c60436c5e719ce95fc487fdb98395d09

wonder if we will get same reaction from ORR after today's CPI ?

New Zealand’s consumers price index increased 4 percent in the 12 months to the March 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.
The 4 per cent increase follows a 4.7 per cent increase in the 12 months to the December 2023 quarter.

[Joshuatree]

Potentially not good for little old NZ
"WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH DAIRY COWS AND BIRD FLU?"
https://hub.jhu.edu/2024/04/15/qa-avian-flu-in-cows/
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/new-zealand-vigilant-as-us-dairy-herds-catch-bird-flu?utm_source=7am+Headlines+from+BusinessDesk&utm_campaign=14751f4897-7am+Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_617c2ef34a-14751f4897-446239310
Wow
bird flu has spread to two dozen US dairy herds across eight states. One human is reportedly got it too

[Rawz]

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127321/march-annual-inflation-comes-lower-rbnz-and-bank-economists-expected-while-rent

New Zealand's annual inflation rate dropped to 4% in March, from 4.7% in December, albeit rents, house construction costs and council rates continued rising.
The Consumers Price Index (CPI) increased just 0.6% in the March quarter, up from 0.5% in the previous period.
The CPI measures changes in the prices paid by households for goods and services which provides insight into inflationary trends in NZ’s economy.
Statistics NZ said on Wednesday the price increases in the March quarter were the smallest since June 2021.
“However, they remain above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1% to 3%,” Stats NZ senior manager Nicola Growden said.


Annual inflation still came in higher than what the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) was expecting as the central bank had forecast annual inflation to decrease to 3.8% in the March quarter.
Westpac and Kiwibank economists had cast 4.2% as their expected annual inflation rate (https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127270/ahead-april-17%E2%80%99s-much-anticipated-release-march-quarter-cpi-westpac-anz-and-kiwibank%C2%A0), ASB picked 4.1% while ANZ went for 4% and BNZ came lowest at 3.9%.

[winner69]

RBNZ likes the trimmed-mean number

Stats NZ says-
The trimmed-mean measures – which excludes extreme price movements – ranged from 4.4 to 4.6 percent in the 12 months to March 2024 quarter. This indicates that underlying inflation is higher than the 4.0 percent increase in the CPI

[Rawz]

Inflation will only die with job losses. And there were more this morning with Oranga Tamariki cutting 400 jobs and just announced now 500 jobs on the line at the ministry of education.

My local thai restaurant closed last month too.

Its tough out there imo

[bull....]

New Zealand’s consumers price index increased 4 percent in the 12 months to the March 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.
The 4 per cent increase follows a 4.7 per cent increase in the 12 months to the December 2023 quarter.

core is sticky , need to crush the economy more. dont know how they will stop rents going up without more supply and another round of double digit rates increases :scared:

[kiora]

The sharks are back in today?

[causecelebre]

core is sticky , need to crush the economy more. dont know how they will stop rents going up without more supply and another round of double digit rates increases :scared:

Exactly, rent, rates, insurance and construction costs. Landlords are not going to drop the rent even given interest deductibility. Rates (and water, etc) are going up to pay for the debt and road cones. Building materials are sticky, thought hopefully (as we are pricing a renovation) the builders margins will get squeezed due to competition for work.

[alokdhir]

Every time it feels its different but its always the same ...Inflation will come down so will rates ...how it happens ...like it happened before ...cycle after cycle ...thats why its called cyclical ....:D

[Daytr]

Exactly, rent, rates, insurance and construction costs. Landlords are not going to drop the rent even given interest deductibility. Rates (and water, etc) are going up to pay for the debt and road cones. Building materials are sticky, thought hopefully (as we are pricing a renovation) the builders margins will get squeezed due to competition for work.

From what I am seeing is that the cost of building is / has come down substantially and I wouldn't be surprised to see that continue as work dries up. That combined with Government efforts to strip away red tape & allowing a lot more products to be accepted in NZ.

Speaking to someone today who is a commercial landlord with multiple properties and they have offered their tenants a reduction in lease costs, recognizing the difficulties business owners are facing. Not sure if that is wide spread, but I thought it was interesting.

[alokdhir]

Every day NZX bluechips open weak and close strong ...I hope traders like Bull taking advantage of fickle minded retail investors of NZ who follow. the overseas sentiment by selling at open only to see blue chips improving mostly by close

[bull....]

Every day NZX bluechips open weak and close strong ...I hope traders like Bull taking advantage of fickle minded retail investors of NZ who follow. the overseas sentiment by selling at open only to see blue chips improving mostly by close

been like that for quite a while. ebo , fph but volumes are so tiny on open not worth trading

[Valuegrowth]

Inflation is not going to end easily. I don’t see falling prices for Insurance premium, rents, and rates. They have gone up in huge amount.

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/why-interest-rate-cut-may-075100884.html (https://nz.news.yahoo.com/why-interest-rate-cut-may-075100884.html)


"The headline Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure fell from 3.4% in February to 3.2% (https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-england-governor-talks-up-rate-cut-prospects-as-inflation-eases-to-3-2-13116964) and the 'core' measure, which strips out volatile elements such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, eased from 4.5% in February to 4.2%.

However, both figures are higher than expected, with the market having looked for CPI of 3.1% in March and core inflation of 4.2%. To that extent, the figures are a disappointment.

That caveat is important because there is still inflation (https://news.sky.com/topic/inflation-6551) in the system.

The March CPI figure in the United States came in at 3.5% - up from 3.2% in February and the third consecutive month that inflation had come in ahead of expectations. The American experience is a reminder, should one be needed, that inflation does not come down in a straight line.

The Bank's most recent Financial Stability Report (https://news.sky.com/story/five-million-more-households-yet-to-feel-full-rate-hike-burden-bank-of-england-warns-13024050), published just before Christmas, noted that some five million UK households who locked into their mortgage deals before it began raising the cost of borrowing would feel the impact of higher mortgage costs between then and the start of 2026."

[Daytr]

I find it interesting that the NASDAQ seems to be more interest rate sensitive than the DOW. Yet most tech companies use equity rather than debt for finance & the big end of town are sitting on 10s of billions of cash each.

[Ricky-bobby]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-chief-quotes-churchill-she-171929449.html head of imf talking to current world debt and rates. I can’t see them going down this year… dammit my mortgage is due in Jan!

[alokdhir]

I find it interesting that the NASDAQ seems to be more interest rate sensitive than the DOW. Yet most tech companies use equity rather than debt for finance & the big end of town are sitting on 10s of billions of cash each.

Its the multiple side of equation which is super rate sensitive ...

[Daytr]

Its the multiple side of equation which is super rate sensitive ...

I.e consumer demand, I assume you are referring to.

I still think the equation is wrong when compared to the DOW.

[alokdhir]

I.e consumer demand, I assume you are referring to.

I still think the equation is wrong when compared to the DOW.

I was referring to p/e s ...as tech have higher p/e thus when rates go up then their valuations based on current cost of funds get subdued

[bull....]

NZ takes another step towards digital cash: What you need to know
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/04/19/nz-takes-another-step-towards-digital-cash-what-you-need-to-know/

[Valuegrowth]

I find it interesting that the NASDAQ seems to be more interest rate sensitive than the DOW. Yet most tech companies use equity rather than debt for finance & the big end of town are sitting on 10s of billions of cash each.
The sector is over valued and crowded. Time to apply The Zulu principle introduced by English Accountant. Can we justify their historically high PE ratios? Besides companies have lean period as well.They don't go straight up.If I'm correct currently Apple and Telsra have some issues. I can see weakening of share prices(one by one)and a decline in sales in the sector. I expect much bigger sell-off than now. I was thinking about buying Baidu around $100. It dropped below $94 unexpectedly. There is a chance of dropping it below $60 when tech sector becomes out of favour.

[Daytr]

The bell weather new boat index.
Tradies out of work?
https://www.odt.co.nz/southland/more-job-cuts-ahead-stabicraft?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3IJSnqJsbMPv fCkPHBW79QSfcubMEQ6olsDbKUDcS7Ri3f2QW9WJ85AIo_aem_ AfFAOFjqVIIPkkdz0rJrZhdJJJGCMCUDhZ2Kv41qcuu4wV9Hh9 c-oj0B4s8DkpvgYXbFC3Px3TXGhmY-54C5mG2e

[LEMON]

Explosions in Iran, Brent futures heading back above $88

[LEMON]

Aircraft diversions, Gold & Silver futures popping. Explosion in Iraq and Syria

[bull....]

stock futures tanking lucky the cat woke me up

[alokdhir]

stock futures tanking lucky the cat woke me up

Didnt know U are a cat person ....lol

[bull....]

Didnt know U are a cat person ....lol

yep kitten just joined the family came in and bite my leg. obviously wanted to play.

[winner69]

Brent over $90

[Bjauck]

Explosions in Iran, Brent futures heading back above $88BBC is now reporting that they were Israeli missiles.

[bull....]

BBC is now reporting that they were Israeli missiles.

sirens going off in isreal now

[alokdhir]

https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-18-24/index.html

Confirmation on expected lines that Israel will take this golden opportunity provided by Iran to further US agenda to finish nuclear progress ....years of work wasted for ego / face saving attack

[LEMON]

Iran "claims" all strikes were shot down, and Israels attempt was weak, the explosions were the air defence shooting the missles.

Iran looking for a way out i think, unless they do actually retaliate again like they have been threating to do.

[Valuegrowth]

Brent over $90 Huge sell-off in Japanese,Taiwan and Korean markets. When there is a unresolved geo polical crisis we should act fast. Investment is highly risky unless we park money in multibagger stocks and stocks for all occasions. My portfolio has full of defensive stocks. People have to eat and drink even during period of war. Also they need commodities One good thing is always there will be bull market somewhere.Hope there won't be third world war.

[alokdhir]

As per Elon Musk ...AI and its extensive usage will lead to acute power shortage ...so electric companies maybe better buys then anything else ...CEN my pick !!

[Valuegrowth]

Aircraft diversions, Gold & Silver futures popping. Explosion in Iraq and Syria
Utilities and consumer staples are top winners in S&P 500.

[RTM]

As per Elon Musk ...AI and its extensive usage will lead to acute power shortage ...so electric companies maybe better buys then anything else ...CEN my pick !!

https://www.southerncompany.com/

What about this one ? Disc: Holding. Just commissioning new nuclear power stations

[LEMON]

"The Jerusalem Post reports that Israel 'will not accept responsibility for this attack for strategic reasons"

Iran will hopefully continue to claim nothing happened thanks to their air defence and the middle east survives another day, lets hope

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.investing.com/indices/asian-pacific-indices

[LEMON]

"The Jerusalem Post reports that Israel 'will not accept responsibility for this attack for strategic reasons"

Iran will hopefully continue to claim nothing happened thanks to their air defence and the middle east survives another day, lets hope


Iranian official tells Reuters there are no plans for retaliating against Israeli strike

[Valuegrowth]

Dow is currently up. Tech stocks are struggling.

[Valuegrowth]

The sector is over valued and crowded. Time to apply The Zulu principle introduced by English Accountant. Can we justify their historically high PE ratios? Besides companies have lean period as well.They don't go straight up.If I'm correct currently Apple and Telsra have some issues. I can see weakening of share prices(one by one)and a decline in sales in the sector. I expect much bigger sell-off than now. I was thinking about buying Baidu around $100. It dropped below $94 unexpectedly. There is a chance of dropping it below $60 when tech sector becomes out of favour.Finally, overvalued growth stocks which include magnificent seven are having a corection. I believe value investors
and those who apply Zulu principle to pick growth stocks could get some opportunities by the end of this year.BTW Baidu is trading below $93 and Baba is trading below $70. I may get some opportunity to own at least one tech stock in my portfolio over the next 18 months. Time to follow and study their trend, valuation and growth.

[alokdhir]

Heroes becoming zeros to be heroes again ? NVDA around $ 750 !!!

[Valuegrowth]

Heroes becoming zeros to be heroes again ? NVDA around $ 750 !!! Punters are taking advantage from Magnificent 7 bull market. Smart players either taking profits or rotating to other attractive stocks. They must have calculated current valuation and PE ratio for the future growth.

[alokdhir]

Punters are taking advantage from Magnificent 7 bull market. Smart players either taking profits or rotating to other attractive stocks. They must have calculated current valuation and PE ratio for the future growth.

Current fair valuation for any stock changes continuously based on CURRENT rates and FUTURE eps trends ...so fair SP of any stock is always a moving target as changes in rates make some overvalued ...these things cant be forecasted accurately ...only can estimated ...who wud have factored US10Y above 4.6% one month back when NVDA was 900 ...but it happened which helped these overbought stocks to correct ...but they still are attractive stocks which will again surprise on upside when market dynamics change as their EPS GROWTH is still stupendous ...in short they will provide small window to get in if one wishes to own market leaders of TECH world ...BABA and Tencent etc have regional / political / policy risks thats why they trade at such parameters

[Valuegrowth]

Current fair valuation for any stock changes continuously based on CURRENT rates and FUTURE eps trends ...so fair SP of any stock is always a moving target as changes in rates make some overvalued ...these things cant be forecasted accurately ...only can estimated ...who wud have factored US10Y above 4.6% one month back when NVDA was 900 ...but it happened which helped these overbought stocks to correct ...but they still are attractive stocks which will again surprise on upside when market dynamics change as their EPS GROWTH is still stupendous ...in short they will provide small window to get in if one wishes to own market leaders of TECH world ...BABA and Tencent etc have regional / political / policy risks thats why they trade at such parametersThank you for the explanation. I am not expert in growth stocks. Currently i like to stay with the Zulu principle when it comes to picking growth stocks. I owned one tech stock and then sold before it tank further. I agree we are going to have some opportunities. Anyway I have a solid small concentrated portfolio. More than 90% of them have strong balance sheets. I can sleep peacefully now. I'am also going to get an opportunity to sell my ultra short ETF.

[winner69]

@WinfieldSmart
The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days We’ve only seen this 3 times in history:

1. 2008
2. 1929
3. 1974

All 3 saw > 50% stock market drawdowns

[Valuegrowth]

@WinfieldSmart
The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days We’ve only seen this 3 times in history:

1. 2008
2. 1929
3. 1974

All 3 saw > 50% stock market drawdownsThanks. Very interesting finding. Don't even think about 1929. Great depression and over 10 years of suffering. Any way I was preparing for coming major pull back in overvalued markets.

https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/great-depression-history

Great Depression History

"The Great Depression was the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialized world, lasting from the stock market crash of 1929 to 1939."

[Daytr]

@WinfieldSmart
The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days We’ve only seen this 3 times in history:

1. 2008
2. 1929
3. 1974

All 3 saw > 50% stock market drawdowns

Bring it on I say.
Ready to load up!

[ValueNZ]

Bring it on I say.
Ready to load up!
Hell yeah. Bring on the pain. 1929 style.

[alokdhir]

@WinfieldSmart
The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days We’ve only seen this 3 times in history:

1. 2008
2. 1929
3. 1974

All 3 saw > 50% stock market drawdowns

It shows one of the markets have got it wrong ...I will bet its bond market which got it wrong ...over exuberance and moving all over the place shows that they dont have a clue while stocks are still following eps growth etc ...only their rates call for over all valuation purposes maybe little off the mark but that wont lead to big disaster as one expecting ie 50% corrections etc .... Companies are doing well due to innovation and economy doing well ...thus long term rates tanking to invert the curve seems like a wrong move ....not NVDA going parabolic

[Daytr]

It shows one of the markets have got it wrong ...I will bet its bond market which got it wrong ...over exuberance and moving all over the place shows that they dont have a clue while stocks are still following eps growth etc ...only their rates call for over all valuation purposes maybe little off the mark but that wont lead to big disaster as one expecting ie 50% corrections etc .... Companies are doing well due to innovation and economy doing well ...thus long term rates tanking to invert the curve seems like a wrong move ....not NVDA going parabolic

Yeah I agree, although we could still see a 10 - 20% correction.

Covid saw a 40% correction only to bounce back swiftly and that was with half the world shutting down.

Netanyahu is the outlier. That guy is open to doing anything.

[Bjauck]

Liam Dann on why The Aussie economy is stronger and more productive per person than ours and why yet again we lose so many NZ citizens to Australia.

I won’t post some of his main conclusions as it will be boring for some to hear again. I suspect that many from those segments of society that have a high propensity to actually vote will find it boring and will dismiss the conclusions as being woke or yet another attempt to disrupt the “Kiwi way of doing things”. We will probably have to wait until NZ is changed more by immigration from developing countries and/or things get a whole lot worse. Maybe NZ needs to become a big Southern version of Fiji, a country with friendly people, but with economic challenges and low living standards.

Why So Many Kiwis Are Leaving for Australia (Paywalled)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-why-so-many-kiwis-leaving-for-australia-and-why-its-economy-is-stronger/GKIOX5UF2BDR7LODXQI5LDNOGI/

[ynot]

Liam Dann on why The Aussie economy is stronger and more productive per person than ours and why yet again we lose so many NZ citizens to Australia.

I won’t post some of his main conclusions as it will be boring for some to hear again. I suspect that many from those segments of society that have a high propensity to actually vote will find it boring and will dismiss the conclusions as being woke or yet another attempt to disrupt the “Kiwi way of doing things”. We will probably have to wait until NZ is changed more by immigration from developing countries and/or things get a whole lot worse. Maybe NZ needs to become a big Southern version of Fiji, a country with friendly people, but with economic challenges and low living standards.

Why So Many Kiwis Are Leaving for Australia (Paywalled)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-why-so-many-kiwis-leaving-for-australia-and-why-its-economy-is-stronger/GKIOX5UF2BDR7LODXQI5LDNOGI/

One thing that would quickly put us in a better light would be an Hiroshima event in the northern hemisphere.

[Aaron]

Liam Dann on why The Aussie economy is stronger and more productive per person than ours and why yet again we lose so many NZ citizens to Australia.

I won’t post some of his main conclusions as it will be boring for some to hear again. I suspect that many from those segments of society that have a high propensity to actually vote will find it boring and will dismiss the conclusions as being woke or yet another attempt to disrupt the “Kiwi way of doing things”. We will probably have to wait until NZ is changed more by immigration from developing countries and/or things get a whole lot worse. Maybe NZ needs to become a big Southern version of Fiji, a country with friendly people, but with economic challenges and low living standards.

Why So Many Kiwis Are Leaving for Australia (Paywalled)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-why-so-many-kiwis-leaving-for-australia-and-why-its-economy-is-stronger/GKIOX5UF2BDR7LODXQI5LDNOGI/

Well you do bang on about a capital gains tax a lot. Alot of people agree with you on that.

But Liam's conclusion is that maybe after mineral wealth a capital gains tax and forcing people to save for their own retirement are the two big differences between the countries.

I expect to see a lot more work being done providing for your own retirement after 2029-2030. Much like tertiary education I think we will find it is not affordable after this date and serious sacrifices will have to be made by younger generations.

[Bjauck]

…
I expect to see a lot more work being done providing for your own retirement after 2029-2030. Much like tertiary education I think we will find it is not affordable after this date and serious sacrifices will have to be made by younger generations. The younger generation that is leaving for Australia in increasing numbers…So will we have an immigrant younger population, waiting for its opportunity to skip over to Oz, supporting a retired NZ citizenry in their big houses? Our version of Italian villages full of retired folk as the young have moved to Northern Europe.

Liam Dann did say that despite not having mineral wealth, NZ did abound with other bounties from nature.

[Newman]

One thing that would quickly put us in a better light would be an Hiroshima event in the northern hemisphere.

Could you explain how a Hiroshima event would affect New Zealand?

[ynot]

Could you explain how a Hiroshima event would affect New Zealand?

I would imagine people doing anything to be somewhere safe, money no object. Use your imagination.

[Valuegrowth]

For now futures are slightly looking good. It's going to be very crucial week for the magnificent 7.

[bull....]

should get some big swings this week in markets on earnings

[alokdhir]

should get some big swings this week in markets on earnings

They will still surprise but market reaction maybe muted this time ...just a gut feeling !!!

[Rawz]

Wet & Forget sold: New Zealand homecare product company sold to private equity firm Direct Capital in massive commercial deal - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/wet-forget-sold-new-zealand-homecare-product-firm-sold-to-private-equity-firm-in-massive-commercial-deal/FK6KSCITANE63L3YZ5BAGQQT4Q/)

Wet & Forget sold to private equity. How sad it wasnt listed...

Fear not though, PE no doubt will gut it, load it up with debt and then list it for us to have a turn :eek2:

[Valuegrowth]

Corection for over valued growth stocks is not over yet. IMO Short term bounce won't last. Punters could take advantage of selling over valued and technically weak stocks in every bounce. Time for new leaders and new sectors.

[bull....]

actually ive been spot on on the way down called nasdaq low perfectly at xmas , went neutral recently which means not short and have actually never been fully 100% cash at all
even family brought meta 2 mths ago now very happy

the end of a fab run but full pockets of dosh, out of meta now. look like mag7 breaking down. fab run on these stocks anyway another baby coming soon ( can afford it now lol ) less time to post sh.t on this site so only random from now on.

Meta plunges 16% on weak revenue guidance even as first-quarter results top estimates
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/meta-meta-q1-2024-earnings-.html

[Valuegrowth]

Deleted the wrong post.

[Valuegrowth]

the end of a fab run but full pockets of dosh, out of meta now. look like mag7 breaking down. fab run on these stocks anyway another baby coming soon ( can afford it now lol ) less time to post sh.t on this site so only random from now on.

Meta plunges 16% on weak revenue guidance even as first-quarter results top estimates


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/meta-meta-q1-2024-earnings-.html

Volatility is back. Fear is also back. As I said sell-off is not over for hot stocks. All weak stocks and stocks which bent the trend sold gradually which I didn’t do in the past. In this hot market, adding, trimming, selling, and buying right ones is the way to go.

[Valuegrowth]

For now futures are slightly looking good. It's going to be very crucial week for the magnificent 7.

For now, futures are not looking good. Anything can happen given the uncertainty.

[Daytr]

Any thoughts on the FED decision / statement Bull?

[winner69]

What happened US markets overnight bull

Down heaps

Nothing on Stuff lol

[bull....]

fed meeting tomorrow could have major moves in assets based on commentary and question time as market getting panicky ahead of this in all assets.
i expect todays moves were positioning based on some change in rhetoric. as mentioned on here i have been short for portfolio protection.
anyway time for bed gotto get sleep when can

[Daytr]

fed meeting tomorrow could have major moves in assets based on commentary and question time as market getting panicky ahead of this in all assets.
i expect todays moves were positioning based on some change in rhetoric. as mentioned on here i have been short for portfolio protection.
anyway time for bed gotto get sleep when can

Thanks.
On the close strong labour market with increase in Labour costs above expectation.
I was short, but closed out before the number.
Ahh well a win is a win.

I do wonder if what is going on in the US commercial property market may start influencing the FED. Probably not tomorrow though.

[Leemsip]

key question for Jerome Powell tomorrow. "In light of continued wage inflation pressure is the FED considering raising rates"

Market worried

[Valuegrowth]

key question for Jerome Powell tomorrow. "In light of continued wage inflation pressure is the FED considering raising rates"

Market worried I expect more volatility and sell-off in markets. Time for fudementally sound value stocks.

[bull....]

fed meeting tomorrow could have major moves in assets based on commentary and question time as market getting panicky ahead of this in all assets.
i expect todays moves were positioning based on some change in rhetoric. as mentioned on here i have been short for portfolio protection.
anyway time for bed gotto get sleep when can

massive moves up and down in and after question time

Fed keeps rates steady as it notes ‘lack of further progress’ on inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-rate-decision-may-2024-.html

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/05/likelihood-of-november-official-cash-rate-cut-boosted-after-march-quarter-job-shedding.html

[alokdhir]

massive moves up and down in and after question time

Fed keeps rates steady as it notes ‘lack of further progress’ on inflation


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/fed-rate-decision-may-2024-.html

But I reckon he also said rates sufficiently high to slow economy ...No further hikes needed . Higher for longer will not last long ...maybe delaying the inevitable by 3-6 months max ...imo