Black Monday

[bull....]

nvidia tomorrow ... will it crash the AI rally opps i mean wall st rally ?

monster move forecast

[alokdhir]

nvidia tomorrow ... will it crash the AI rally opps i mean wall st rally ?

monster move forecast

U r positioned on which side ? Dont tell me u plan to position after reading results ...then nothing much will be left on table ...need take call either way before ?

[Bobdn]

My biggest exposure to NVIDIA is my ownership of Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund - it's a whopping 6.6 per cent of it.

I would never buy the company personally and fully expect it to sh*t the bed tomorrow. Given that my investing instincts are always wrong, it might actually crush it (as the kids say) tomorrow.

I'm sort of hoping it underperforms. Maybe money will come out of technology and into my value tilt. Ive got cash to cover the next two years so no hurry. Just needs to happen before my next sell down.

[Valuegrowth]

big day wall st tomorrow morning.... nvidia massive . options pricing a 10% swing eithier way no wonder some people baled ahead of it
If prices go up or down they will have a reason to tell. I expect the latter. Punters are short term driven. It could be big day for bears.

[Valuegrowth]

No firm view on that. Sovereign debt imo is the next major issue to be addressed.
Japan has excessive debt and an aging & declining population.
China also has a similar problem and is not as solvable as Japan. Japan can open the floodgates to immigration whereas China is just so large and is likely only to lose more people than it gains.

US Government debt is also becoming a problem, particularly if interest rates remain high.
So at some point either taxes in the US need to rise or interest rates need to return to a level where the debt is serviceable.

Since 2008 the biggest crash happened after the Dot.Com crash. I forget to tell you tech sector is also can bring calamities to global markets if punters become panic. After period of rampant hype next is a burst. If we analyse throughout the history, we can get better idea about boom and bust. It’s relevant to many assets.

"In my previous reply I said: Two things which brought calamities to the financial system, asset markets and to the world economy :

Debt and Easy money.

History is repeating time to time in a different manner. I periodically do my rebalancing to face for those types of calamities. Some assets and stocks are in bubble territory now."

[causecelebre]

NVDA Q4 Expectations from 39 analysts.

revenue
'24 $20.6b '23 $6.05b +240%

ebitda
'24 $12.6b '23 NA

ebit
'24 $13.4b '23 $2.2b +502%

eps
'24 4.64 '23 0.88 +427%

[causecelebre]

If prices go up or down they will have a reason to tell. I expect the latter. Punters are short term driven. It could be big day for bears.

I'll see your quote and raise you one of my own


For a time NVDA had a market cap higher than Amazon. I took a little off the top at the close on Friday as I’m want to do.

Put/Call ratio 0.88 if that makes any difference

[DavidB]

While the whole world is waiting on the Nvidia result, I did a little exercise this morning which I like to do from time to time and that is to compare the NZX 50 Capital index with the major US indexes (Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ). Our market has been very disappointing over the last three years, notwithstanding the excellent results that some individual companies have produced in that time. The NZX50 Capital index is a better comparator to use for the US indexes as like the American ones it doesn't include the dividends received being reinvested back into the market. The NZX 50 Gross index which is commonly quoted by the media and others and that does include the dividends being reinvested is unusual in taking this approach and elevates the overall return that the market makes, perhaps giving an overly rosy impression.

I hope this works!

14963


The results I think are quite telling. In the last three years, the Dow is up 48.39%, the S&P500, 78.16%, and the NSADAQ, 107.65%. The NZX50C on the other hand is up 8.37% over the same period. (The more rosy NZX50G is up 24.96%). The performance of the US markets over the last three years has been remarkable. Despite the pandemic, disrupted supply chains, inflation, high interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and the emergence of Cold War II with China and Russia, if you had invested money into a NASDAQ ETF fund three years ago and then went for a nice long holiday by the beach, you've doubled your money. As for the NZ market, probably the less said the better, but unquestionably a sign of the weakness in and stagnation of the NZ economy during that time. So clearly this is a sign that without exposure to the US market, investor returns for a New Zealander who confines their investing to the NZ sharemarket, returns are much diminished. Geographical diversification is still key.

This now then begs the question, will the US returns seen over the last three years be matched by the returns over the next three years? I'm not sure. You could argue, particularly in the tech space, that stock prices have gotten ahead of themselves, and that stocks are priced for perfection. Any major tech company that has an earnings report that disappoints could have a major flow-on effect on the whole market. I think the NASDAQ in particular is due for a correction, as is the S&P 500. So it will be an interesting watch in the months ahead.

[kiora]

For what its worth
"Goldman's 5,200 price target for the S&P 500 in 2024 is now among the highest on Wall Street, joining the ranks of Wall Street bulls including Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors and Oppenheimer Asset Management chief strategist John Stoltzfus, who both hold a similar year-end outlook"
https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/goldman-lifts-s-p-500-target-to-5-200-on-profit-expansion-11708303073912.html

[alokdhir]

If prices go up or down they will have a reason to tell. I expect the latter. Punters are short term driven. It could be big day for bears.

When the actual data supports hype then it's no longer called hype ...so far NVDA living up to hype / expectations or even exceeding it as many people fail to recognise the worth of these companies ....AI is a real world changer ...and it will be in demand for times to come ...NVDA has many advantages over competitors for sometime ahead ....think apple with iPhones ...they are still cashing their advantages over many other players

[Rawz]

NVIDIA



Earnings: $5.15 per share, adjusted, versus $4.64 per share expected.
Revenue: $22.10 billion, versus $20.62 billion expected.


The circus continues on

[bull....]

While the whole world is waiting on the Nvidia result, I did a little exercise this morning which I like to do from time to time and that is to compare the NZX 50 Capital index with the major US indexes (Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ). Our market has been very disappointing over the last three years, notwithstanding the excellent results that some individual companies have produced in that time. The NZX50 Capital index is a better comparator to use for the US indexes as like the American ones it doesn't include the dividends received being reinvested back into the market. The NZX 50 Gross index which is commonly quoted by the media and others and that does include the dividends being reinvested is unusual in taking this approach and elevates the overall return that the market makes, perhaps giving an overly rosy impression.

I hope this works!

14963


The results I think are quite telling. In the last three years, the Dow is up 48.39%, the S&P500, 78.16%, and the NSADAQ, 107.65%. The NZX50C on the other hand is up 8.37% over the same period. (The more rosy NZX50G is up 24.96%). The performance of the US markets over the last three years has been remarkable. Despite the pandemic, disrupted supply chains, inflation, high interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and the emergence of Cold War II with China and Russia, if you had invested money into a NASDAQ ETF fund three years ago and then went for a nice long holiday by the beach, you've doubled your money. As for the NZ market, probably the less said the better, but unquestionably a sign of the weakness in and stagnation of the NZ economy during that time. So clearly this is a sign that without exposure to the US market, investor returns for a New Zealander who confines their investing to the NZ sharemarket, returns are much diminished. Geographical diversification is still key.

This now then begs the question, will the US returns seen over the last three years be matched by the returns over the next three years? I'm not sure. You could argue, particularly in the tech space, that stock prices have gotten ahead of themselves, and that stocks are priced for perfection. Any major tech company that has an earnings report that disappoints could have a major flow-on effect on the whole market. I think the NASDAQ in particular is due for a correction, as is the S&P 500. So it will be an interesting watch in the months ahead.

certainly more chance of getting rich by picking a stock in the US market

[causecelebre]

Up 6% in extended trading

[bull....]

wow those nvidia results swung the whole market 40 handles up and down in quick time on the sp 500 on the announcement just goes to show how big this company is on sentiment

i was short the index from last night went for walk this morning got home and taht 30 min before bell run -up in sp500 wiped out the gains lol on that insurance position , closed out neutral on the announcement

[bull....]

Up 6% in extended trading

9% now in line pretty much with option guidance

[Valuegrowth]

When the actual data supports hype then it's no longer called hype ...so far NVDA living up to hype / expectations or even exceeding it as many people fail to recognise the worth of these companies ....AI is a real world changer ...and it will be in demand for times to come ...NVDA has many advantages over competitors for sometime ahead ....think apple with iPhones ...they are still cashing their advantages over many other playersIt has more room to go up, but I believe NVidia’s stock is overvalued. I saw somewhere its long-term fare value estimated at $480. I also expect coming competition in AI. Tomorrow could be flying day for Nvidia because so many traders and speculators are betting on it.

[Valuegrowth]

While the whole world is waiting on the Nvidia result, I did a little exercise this morning which I like to do from time to time and that is to compare the NZX 50 Capital index with the major US indexes (Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ). Our market has been very disappointing over the last three years, notwithstanding the excellent results that some individual companies have produced in that time. The NZX50 Capital index is a better comparator to use for the US indexes as like the American ones it doesn't include the dividends received being reinvested back into the market. The NZX 50 Gross index which is commonly quoted by the media and others and that does include the dividends being reinvested is unusual in taking this approach and elevates the overall return that the market makes, perhaps giving an overly rosy impression.

I hope this works!

14963


The results I think are quite telling. In the last three years, the Dow is up 48.39%, the S&P500, 78.16%, and the NSADAQ, 107.65%. The NZX50C on the other hand is up 8.37% over the same period. (The more rosy NZX50G is up 24.96%). The performance of the US markets over the last three years has been remarkable. Despite the pandemic, disrupted supply chains, inflation, high interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and the emergence of Cold War II with China and Russia, if you had invested money into a NASDAQ ETF fund three years ago and then went for a nice long holiday by the beach, you've doubled your money. As for the NZ market, probably the less said the better, but unquestionably a sign of the weakness in and stagnation of the NZ economy during that time. So clearly this is a sign that without exposure to the US market, investor returns for a New Zealander who confines their investing to the NZ sharemarket, returns are much diminished. Geographical diversification is still key.

This now then begs the question, will the US returns seen over the last three years be matched by the returns over the next three years? I'm not sure. You could argue, particularly in the tech space, that stock prices have gotten ahead of themselves, and that stocks are priced for perfection. Any major tech company that has an earnings report that disappoints could have a major flow-on effect on the whole market. I think the NASDAQ in particular is due for a correction, as is the S&P 500. So it will be an interesting watch in the months ahead.
We don’t know when the market cycle will end. As I said, this is the final leg of the current long bull market. I have a fear of investing at the peak. I agree Nasdaq is due for huge sell-off. Although I prefer long term investment (which is limited to cash rich strong balance sheets and buying them before market recognize them), I do re-balancing as well now. I was terrible in selling. Now it has become part of my investment journey. Once I realize I have a value trap or growth trap I will sell them and will park in stocks with mutibagger characteristics. People think only place to park is the tech sector. Opportunities can come at any place. I am looking forward to the next opportunities.

[bull....]

nvidia tomorrow ... will it crash the AI rally opps i mean wall st rally ?

monster move forecast

nvidia 15% move up .... monster there result caused world markets to have good days

i asked nvidia ai chip what it thought of the result

In the end, it was not just about creating the biggest company in the world, but about shaping the destiny of humanity itself. And as NVIDIA's AI-aware chips ushered in a new era of enlightenment, the world looked to the horizon with hope and anticipation, knowing that the future had never been brighter

[winner69]

This chart on money market and economist/commentators mind ….and causing concern in some quarters

[Aaron]

This chart on money market and economist/commentators mind ….and causing concern in some quarters

What is the concern? The OCR above 1%?

Japan has shown the way regarding zero percent interest rates and how to deal with a debt crisis.

Celebration today as the Nikkei has just eclipsed the high set in 1989. I wouldn't have wanted to be buying into a Nikkei index fund in 1989 but now only 34 years later you would have got your money back.

I don't understand the full picture but I think interest rates have been near zero for decades and the JCB just prints and buys govt bonds and etfs although the JCB only owns 4.7% of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and 53.9% of outstanding japanese govt debt.

Is Japan the model we are following, if so zirp and money printing appear to be a total success.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/japans-nikkei-225-index-eclipses-record-high-after-34-years/6VBT4VZSQVGAJN52VHPL6MHGGY/

Interesting comment Adrian Orr sees managing the economy like steering a canal boat.

The bank shouldn’t be hasty: “In practice, this means taking care not to make economic booms and busts worse by jumping at shadows and reacting to the first-round effects of short-term price movements.”

This week, the Reserve Bank’s survey of expectations predicted inflation will drop back below 3 percent by the end of next year.

Orr dropped the OCR from 1.75% to .25% between April 2019 to March 2020 or a drop of 85% in a year, his steady hand kept it there until Sept 2021 (allowing Labour to waste money on covid) He has since then raised the OCR to 5.5%. By my calculations that is a 2,100% increase. (Better check my maths that seems too big) (5.25/.25 = 21)

Steady as she goes skipper.

[Bobdn]

Anybody else going to get a DOW 40,000 cap made in anticipation for the big day?

[bull....]

Major bank says latest retail figures are 'soft as a kitten' after consumer spending plummets
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/02/major-bank-says-latest-retail-figures-are-soft-as-a-kitten-after-consumer-spending-plummets.html

[Valuegrowth]

We are going to get 2 types of opportunities.

Out of favour boring stuff
Shorting opportunity for over valued sectors and stocks(can wait another one
month or so)

Also seasonal winners in the commodity market.

[stoploss]

Major bank says latest retail figures are 'soft as a kitten' after consumer spending plummets


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/02/major-bank-says-latest-retail-figures-are-soft-as-a-kitten-after-consumer-spending-plummets.html
LOL Soft as a Kitten but they are still calling for 2 rate hikes ??????

[bull....]

LOL Soft as a Kitten but they are still calling for 2 rate hikes ??????

yest inflation expectations was high so im picking ORR might use that as justification to do his shock an ORR rate hike .... he likes to surprise everyone

[JBmurc]

We don’t know when the market cycle will end. As I said, this is the final leg of the current long bull market. I have a fear of investing at the peak. I agree Nasdaq is due for huge sell-off. Although I prefer long term investment (which is limited to cash rich strong balance sheets and buying them before market recognize them), I do re-balancing as well now. I was terrible in selling. Now it has become part of my investment journey. Once I realize I have a value trap or growth trap I will sell them and will park in stocks with mutibagger characteristics. People think only place to park is the tech sector. Opportunities can come at any place. I am looking forward to the next opportunities.

this MARCH 10th will be 24yrs since the DOTcom peaked the Nasdaq

[Valuegrowth]

this MARCH 10th will be 24yrs since the DOTcom peaked the Nasdaq Thanks. Last week I read about it. Next burst is on the way.

[Daytr]

yest inflation expectations was high so im picking ORR might use that as justification to do his shock an ORR rate hike .... he likes to surprise everyone

I would be very surprised if Orr surprises...

[alokdhir]

Bar for RBNZ to raise rates again after saying we are done must be very very high ...data though bad is not bad enough to support another HIKE ...me will expect strong hawkish talk but no action ...higher for longer theme continues ...NO CHANGE ...market will have relief rally back to recent highs ...Index rebalancing process is on and it takes some time to complete ...operators are preparing their positions for final match session ...thats a drag on real price discovery at the moment . April onwards new year earnings will start getting into the price ...SP should start improving slowly for all the big stocks who have higher eps forecasts ahead

[Valuegrowth]

Bar for RBNZ to raise rates again after saying we are done must be very very high ...data though bad is not bad enough to support another HIKE ...me will expect strong hawkish talk but no action ...higher for longer theme continues ...NO CHANGE ...market will have relief rally back to recent highs ...Index rebalancing process is on and it takes some time to complete ...operators are preparing their positions for final match session ...thats a drag on real price discovery at the moment . April onwards new year earnings will start getting into the price ...SP should start improving slowly for all the big stocks who have higher eps forecasts ahead
IMO, It’s going to be a stock and a commodity picker’s market. Not all stocks will go up in the current year. Those who pick correct stocks and commodities for short, medium, and long term will be winners. Others will lose. Tech sector is becoming hot day by day. Party will end at some point. My mantra is never lose money again. This is the time to weed our holding and upgrade our portfolio. Intelligent investors and traders will have great opportunities in all types of cycles, calamities and black swan events. I have prepared for any type of situation.

[Valuegrowth]

I have read Prof Jeremy Siegel's stocks for the long run and also followed his comments over the last 15 years. He was correct most of the time. I can rely on him for my investment decisons.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-2008-crisis-sp500-bubble-ai-jeremy-siegel-2024-2



The stock market's stellar 15-year performance can't last forever, Jeremy Siegel warned.
The top economist pointed to the S&P 500's monster gains since the 2008 financial crisis.
He also noted the frenzy for AI mega-cap tech stocks probably won't end well.


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-stock-market-outlook-ai-bubble-crash-recession-economy-2024-2



Jeremy Grantham warned US stocks and the economy are headed for trouble.
The elite investor and market historian said the AI frenzy is a bubble that's bound to burst.
Grantham predicted a decade of disappointment for stocks and flagged several long-term threats.

[winner69]

What another Jeremy says

Jeremy Callsitrite calmly waiting as fresh overextensions in valuations in this cycle will inevitably lead to the bubble bursting and market collapse. I’m at peace with myself but I wish for others to endure the pain.…Jeremy

[Bobdn]

Jeremy Siegel on Bloomberg today. Always better to go straight to the source.

"Uptrend intact" and nothing like 1999 - at this stage.

https://youtu.be/G-UTdsaKbMc?si=5I649DgJxdWRGz83

I still trimmed a bit more and now have 7 per cent cash, 73 per cent shares and 20 per cent in bonds. No more trimming. Whatever I do will be wrong. Stay invested as much as possible and look away.

Still, the returns of the last 14 years, as Siegel points out above (thanks ValueGrowth) are unlikely to return. They were twice the long term average. Nothing wrong with the average of 6 per cent after inflation - I'll take that happily.

Investors in NZ shares are lucky - disappointment occurs on a daily basis and a funk has set in. Expectations are already low. No need to worry about low returns, those days have already arrived.

@DavidB, thank you for that chart.

[winner69]

Apparently the S&P's 2.1% rally Thursday came with less than 60% of stocks on the NYSE advancing. The mismatch was seen just three other times in the past 60 years - 1987, 2008 and 2020

[Valuegrowth]

Jeremy Siegel on Bloomberg today. Always better to go straight to the source.

"Uptrend intact" and nothing like 1999 - at this stage.

https://youtu.be/G-UTdsaKbMc?si=5I649DgJxdWRGz83

I still trimmed a bit more and now have 7 per cent cash, 73 per cent shares and 20 per cent in bonds. No more trimming. Whatever I do will be wrong. Stay invested as much as possible and look away.

Still, the returns of the last 14 years, as Siegel points out above (thanks ValueGrowth) are unlikely to return. They were twice the long term average. Nothing wrong with the average of 6 per cent after inflation - I'll take that happily.

Investors in NZ shares are lucky - disappointment occurs on a daily basis and a funk has set in. Expectations are already low. No need to worry about low returns, those days have already arrived.

@DavidB, thank you for that chart.
I trimmed nicely and sold one value trap and growth trap. Sold some commodity stocks before they drop. No bonds/TBs. Sold entirely. For mutibagger stocks I will water them and look after very well. I think I have one or two. Around 80% to 90% in shares (98% of them are in cash rich, debt free, strong balance sheet firms). Added a commodity producer lately. Will add more when they tank more over the coming months. I can see coming weakness in some stocks and commodities. Waiting for a short-term spike to dispose the weakest one and few ETFs to replace them with promising ones. Reinvested dividends Over the last 2 two-years. Commodity stocks are better than AI stocks.

Getting ready for new places including seasonal and medium term plays in the commodity market. Finally, I found out trimming, selling, and adding more to existing ones are keys to successful investment journey. I can smell we are in the last leg in the current bull market. Coming period is good for experienced intelligent players (investors and traders).

[causecelebre]

BRK’s chart looks like NVDA. Haha. Must be the end of the cycle for value investing. I only invest in high multiple growth and tech, meme stocks with outrageous sentiment and zero day expiry options

14967

[Valuegrowth]

BRK’s chart looks like NVDA. Haha. Must be the end of the cycle for value investing. I only invest in high multiple growth and tech, meme stocks with outrageous sentiment and zero day expiry options

14967
No company will have chart or earnings straight up. Those charts can bend at the end. There are economic and industry cycles. I looked at few charts. Very scary. After my fundamental research, I will look for one year and long-term chart. Then I decide whether they are worth to buy at those prices or wait patiently until traders come to me. I understand everybody has their own passion and style when it comes to stocks, commodities, options, and futures. I have my own style.

[Valuegrowth]

Apparently the S&P's 2.1% rally Thursday came with less than 60% of stocks on the NYSE advancing. The mismatch was seen just three other times in the past 60 years - 1987, 2008 and 2020

We are going to see stock market sell-off sooner than later specially in the current year. In addition to stretched valuation, I looked at some charts. Very scary. Few stocks are running the show and as a result indexes are going to the moon.

Benjamin Franklin – “Don’t put off until tomorrow what you can do today.”
Mother Teresa – “Yesterday is gone. Tomorrow has not yet come. We have only today. Let us begin.”
Jackie Joyner-Kersee – “It’s better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.”

I couldn’t’ do like Benjamin Franklin and other intelligent people before, but now I act early.

[mike2020]

Take a look at the DOW the SNP and even the ASX200 and you can see a very similar pattern. Then take a look at the NZX50. Woefully different. If NVDA was wiped out tomorrow would it tear down the nzx?

[bull....]

Berkshire Hathaway operating earnings jump 28% in the fourth quarter, cash pile surges to record


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/24/berkshire-hathaway-brka-earnings-q4-2023.html

interesting he says there is no way be able to generate these eye popping returns in the future.
He also mentions capital gains are significant in the ability to compound returns ( which sailor argued gains were not ) and they will play a significant component going forward

[thedrunkfish]

Do you think the large cash reserves indicate anything? To me that would indicate they have sold off holdings as they believe them to be overvalued.

[Valuegrowth]

Do you think the large cash reserves indicate anything? To me that would indicate they have sold off holdings as they believe them to be overvalued. I also think so. Besides, time to time companies can have some lean period and earnings and stock prices can drop accordingly. They can even make losses. When a quality company face short term issues, it create opportunities for intelligent investors to buy them at a fraction of their real value.

[winner69]

This from NIWA not looking too good for NZ economy

NZ economy driven by green grass, commodity prices and favourable currency

Green grass might be looking a bit brown

[Valuegrowth]

thedrunkfish wrote: Do you think the large cash reserves indicate anything? To me that would indicate they have sold off holdings as they believe them to be overvalued.

I replied:


I also think so. Besides, time to time companies can have some lean period and earnings and stock prices can drop accordingly. They can even make losses. When a quality company face short term issues, it create opportunities for intelligent investors to buy them at a fraction of their real value.

This was in 2022.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/08/investing/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-warren-buffett/index.html

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) (https://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=BRKB&source=story_quote_link) reported Saturday (https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/aug0622.pdf)that the massive conglomerate posted a net loss of nearly $44 billion in the second quarter, red ink that was due mostly to a big drop in the value of Berkshire’s significant stock portfolio.

[bull....]

looks like bit of positioning happening in NZ at the moment for tomorrow's ORRsome event

[Toddy]

This from NIWA not looking too good for NZ economy

NZ economy driven by green grass, commodity prices and favourable currency

Green grass might be looking a bit brown

I think you will find it's in much better shape than the swimming pool conditions of last year.
Our kiwifruit in the Bay of Plenty isn't dry. But when I come back to Auckland it's suffering for sure.

[causecelebre]

Crypto ripping again. BTC $56.5k at the time of this post.

[clip]

where's balance at, he still thinking bitcoin going to $0?

[clip]

wtf lol we both happen to post at the exact same time about it.. wierd

[Bobdn]

Bitcoin a record in NZD. Not a holder..

Who was that guy deep into NVIDIA and Bitcoin? He needs to come back on and gloat. I would in a passive aggressive way.

The market(s) does one thing really well: it humbles everyone over time.

[LEMON]

Bitcoin pricing out the naysayers

[bull....]

this is what the guy saying who predicted correctly the wall st end of yr target last yr

Bitcoin could get as high as $150,000 this year, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YLehfd8ZLg


of course who knows lol

[LEMON]

Bitcoin a record in NZD. Not a holder..

Who was that guy deep into NVIDIA and Bitcoin? He needs to come back on and gloat. I would in a passive aggressive way.

The market(s) does one thing well: it humbles everyone over time.

A record high in NZD and still 13k +/- off the USD all time high.
Look at that NZD dollar devaluation against USD, and yet these guys claim they don't see why bitcoin would benefit New Zealand. USD devalues against Bitcoin forever, volatile swings play the emotions, yet every one of these guys' homes are getting cheaper against Bitcoin, whilst houses are getting more expensive against NZD

[causecelebre]

Bitcoin a record in NZD. Not a holder..

Who was that guy deep into NVIDIA and Bitcoin? He needs to come back on and gloat. I would in a passive aggressive way.

The market(s) does one thing really well: it humbles everyone over time.

I hold both but i'm sure i'm not "that" guy. I sure not to gloat as they both could end up with egg on my face ;) Nonetheless, currently they are having quite an outsized impact on my portfolio

[causecelebre]

A record high in NZD and still 13k +/- off the USD all time high.
Look at that NZD dollar devaluation against USD, and yet these guys claim they don't see why bitcoin would benefit New Zealand. USD devalues against Bitcoin forever, volatile swings play the emotions, yet every one of these guys' homes are getting cheaper against Bitcoin, whilst houses are getting more expensive against NZD

Exactly, currently a good proportion of my portfolio is denominated in USD, Saying that a smaller proportion of my funds are NZD hedged

[Bobdn]

Was it Azz? Apologies to Azz if it wasn't Azz. Maybe Azz was NVIDIA. And maybe I don't even have the name right.

Anyway, Bitcoin seems to be wholly aligned with Nasdaq - I think I read that. Can the NASDAQ be high and Bitcoin low.

[causecelebre]

Currently I think the nasdaq/BTC correlation is around 0.805. Between '19 - '21 it was -0.65. The 90 day correlation is typically around 0.90 so yup you are right :)

[LEMON]

I hold both but i'm sure i'm not "that" guy. I sure not to gloat as they both could end up with egg on my face ;) Nonetheless, currently they are having quite an outsized impact on my portfolio

The price will go down and up and sideways, we could be at 44k by the hour and they'll laugh, yet the drawdowns are getting smaller and lasting shorter, cash is infinite and Bitcoin is fixed and growing more scarce

[Bobdn]

Cool, thanks. Good for you two, anyway. How about you take profits and pump it into large cap US value and small caps to help us all out ;)

One day my value tilt will work. Hopefully before I check out.

[causecelebre]

The price will go down and up and sideways, we could be at 44k by the hour and they'll laugh, yet the drawdowns are getting smaller and lasting shorter, cash is infinite and Bitcoin is fixed and growing more scarce

Even more so with the halving in April and the insto's buying physical BTC now (and ETH to come?)

[causecelebre]

Cool, thanks. Good for you two, anyway. How about you take profits and pump it into large cap US value and small caps to help us all out ;)

One day my value tilt will work. Hopefully before I check out.

haha, never say never mate.

[bull....]

Was it Azz? Apologies to Azz if it wasn't Azz. Maybe Azz was NVIDIA. And maybe I don't even have the name right.

Anyway, Bitcoin seems to be wholly aligned with Nasdaq - I think I read that. Can the NASDAQ be high and Bitcoin low.

yes Azz was all over nvidia etc

[LEMON]

Even more so with the halving in April and the insto's buying physical BTC now (and ETH to come?)

Of course, always expect retests, Markets always retest, as traders take profits, retail gets scared, bad traders get liquidated and market makers play. That's why you don't trade, just know where the strong supports are.

ETFs are good and certainly a main driver on the bull case narrative yet personally i believe the traditional markets and housing are set for another push higher and euphoric times again, this will create a lot more leverage in the system as home owners borrow against property and speculators rush into property markets and stock markets like 2020/21 and the bubble will pop, that's my case on the bitcoin retest of the 69k lows in the 4 year cycle come 2025/26, as the masses in traditional and crypto spaces get washed out, the price of bitcoin will also follow to downside.

The new bull case is AI for 2024/2025

What do I know though.

[Bobdn]

It's exciting times, I think I've reached a networth high today. I'm going to do my monthly update this afternoon just incase the market sh*ts overnight. I want one evening alone with the networth chart, just the two of us. Who cares what happens tomorrow.

Feels unnatural and scary. Would be great to get a 15 per cent correction soon. I never truely enjoy these melt up type runs.

After the correction we can keep on going up, refreshed, to Yardini's 5400 by year end.

[LEMON]

Of course, always expect retests, Markets always retest, as traders take profits, retail gets scared, bad traders get liquidated and market makers play. That's why you don't trade, just know where the strong supports are.

ETFs are good and certainly a main driver on the bull case narrative yet personally i believe the traditional markets and housing are set for another push higher and euphoric times again, this will create a lot more leverage in the system as home owners borrow against property and speculators rush into property markets and stock markets like 2020/21 and the bubble will pop, that's my case on the bitcoin retest of the 69k lows in the 4 year cycle come 2025/26, as the masses in traditional and crypto spaces get washed out, the price of bitcoin will also follow to downside.

The new bull case is AI for 2024/2025

What do I know though.


LET ME ADD - this is why I won't sell my Bitcoin, even as I expect a retest come 2026 of the 2021 highs (69k), IF the bubble pops, that's why I own Bitcoin, expect volatility always, yet you god damn better make sure you're holding hard assets if it does pop, even a home can be confiscated if it's over-leveraged and if I'm wrong then great I still own my assets!

[dln]

Even more so with the halving in April and the insto's buying physical BTC now (and ETH to come?)
Where do they buy those?
Are they printed out?

[LEMON]

On the other hand causecelebre, I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin rips and never looks back at 69k again come 2026, if a financial bust does happen that was after all what it was designed for, to keep the finite property in the hands of those investors. The big institutions know this, and that's why it's cash-in, cash-out ETFS, Investors get devalued fiat when they crap the bed and sell and institutions get to continue holding finite digital scarcity.

It's just good to remind the naysayers we are fully aware retests of supports happen and usually a bear market happens every 4 years usually bottoming near the previous year's high, for when they start the Bitcoin is dead nonsense again

[LEMON]

Where do they buy those?
Are they printed out?

Lol this level of incompetence is why you can't take the bitcoin naysayers seriously

They want to sound really clever but in the process just make fools of themselves time after time

PHYSICAL-
"Physical forms of Bitcoin have been around almost as long as Bitcoin itself. Very early in its history, people got the idea to print out their private keys and tie them to physical items, making them feel more like traditional fiat based coins – having something physical in your hands appeals to people psychologically".

it's pretty self explanatory, almost like owning a physical visa card with digital numbers magically connecting through a network of centralized banks, wowza

[Bobdn]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/27/granolas-stocks-power-europe-to-record-highs-drawing-magnificent-7-comparisons.html

Everything is Awesome

The GRANOLAS power Europe to all time highs.

[Valuegrowth]

One by one even commodities are collapsing.

https://lens.monash.edu/@technology/2024/02/19/1386500/whats-behind-the-collapse-in-the-price-of-nickel-and-how-can-the-industry-survive

Profit Collapse Looms For BHP, Rio Tinto And Fortescue (https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=Awr914INl91lnjwDk2fzZgx.;_ylu=Y29sbwNncTEEcG9 zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1709049741/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.forbes.com%2fsites%2ftimtread gold%2f2024%2f02%2f26%2fprofit-collapse-looms-for-bhp-rio-tinto-and-fortescue%2f/RK=2/RS=w.kXjM4IQmzH1I098eIq3DuW6Z0-)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2024/02/26/profit-collapse-looms-for-bhp-rio-tinto-and-fortescue/?sh=61d69e76918f

[alokdhir]

One by one even commodities are collapsing.

https://lens.monash.edu/@technology/2024/02/19/1386500/whats-behind-the-collapse-in-the-price-of-nickel-and-how-can-the-industry-survive

Profit Collapse Looms For BHP, Rio Tinto And Fortescue (https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=Awr914INl91lnjwDk2fzZgx.;_ylu=Y29sbwNncTEEcG9 zAzEEdnRpZAMEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1709049741/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.forbes.com%2fsites%2ftimtread gold%2f2024%2f02%2f26%2fprofit-collapse-looms-for-bhp-rio-tinto-and-fortescue%2f/RK=2/RS=w.kXjM4IQmzH1I098eIq3DuW6Z0-)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2024/02/26/profit-collapse-looms-for-bhp-rio-tinto-and-fortescue/?sh=61d69e76918f



Commodities always go down when Global downturn on the anvil ...which is the result of the Global war on inflation ...War on inflation is won by engineering slower growth and reducing consumption ....Nothing new here ...its happening on expected path ...all rates cycles go similarly and so on

Just reiterates that we are on right path ...Another cycle in operation

[causecelebre]

OCR to remain at 5.5%

[winner69]

OCR stays at 5.5%

Orr putting off the inevitable increase

Should have increased now

[Daytr]

OCR stays at 5.5%

Orr putting off the inevitable increase

Should have increased now

I disagree. Most of the pay increases under Labour have now filtered through. NAFT are going to cut Government spending by $8Bln and also look at reigning in immigration.
Still around 25% or mortgages to roll onto the new rates.
All factors that should keep domestic inflation in check. Not much he can do about imported inflation.

[JBmurc]

One thing I've been amazed by is the number of guys that I've never known to think about investing/trading that are in Crypto ...the hype is high .. everyone that knows I'm a Sharetrader first Question is do you trade Crypto ...

the number of tips I've had from hotel workers, Taxi drivers, labourers etc on the next great Crypto investment

BTC started was it 13yrs ago ... we have been told it's a Currency for many years BIGGER than the INTERNET etc .. yet I've never once heard anyone tell me are great it is as a currency ..

IMHO BTC follows the NDX if the latter goes down so will BTC ... its an investment BUY HOLD hope a Bigger fool will pay more in the future

[ronaldson]

OCR stays at 5.5%

Orr putting off the inevitable increase

Should have increased now

Agree. But the best solution to take down inflationary pressures would be to raise the minimum kiwisaver contribution from 3% to 4% from 1 April.

Those who would regard themselves as unduly squeezed/impacted can always take a contribution "holiday" but most others would take it in their stride given it remains credited to their account, and it would abate demand without punishing borrowers in the way an increase in the OCR inevitably does.

And our existing Kiwisaver regime is patently underfunded to provide for an acceptable retirement, as any comparison with the Australian equivalent demonstrates.

[Rawz]

OCR stays at 5.5%

Orr putting off the inevitable increase

Should have increased now

Economy is buggered. Anyone on the front line knows this.

Have you not been reading the recent nzx listed updates? everyone stuffed. retail, finance, construction etc

A rate increase would lead to hard landing imo

[winner69]

Economy is buggered. Anyone on the front line knows this.

Have you not been reading the recent nzx listed updates? everyone stuffed. retail, finance, construction etc

A rate increase would lead to hard landing imo

We’d get in better state earlier instead of letting things drag on and on ……should hav been more aggressive last year

[Toddy]

When the kids start saying 'no' in the lollie isle at the supermarket because they think it's too expensive, then you know we have reached a point of cost saturation.

Economics 101.

Maybe ANZ should send some of their staff to an economics lecture.

[winner69]

The RB statement and numbers have then forecasting CPI at 2.6% this September quarter and heading down further to 2026 …yet they forecast OCR at 5.5% first half of 2025

Rad into thatvwhat you want ..nay RB forecasts

[causecelebre]

One thing I've been amazed by is the number of guys that I've never known to think about investing/trading that are in Crypto ...the hype is high .. everyone that knows I'm a Sharetrader first Question is do you trade Crypto ...

the number of tips I've had from hotel workers, Taxi drivers, labourers etc on the next great Crypto investment

BTC started was it 13yrs ago ... we have been told it's a Currency for many years BIGGER than the INTERNET etc .. yet I've never once heard anyone tell me are great it is as a currency ..

IMHO BTC follows the NDX if the latter goes down so will BTC ... its an investment BUY HOLD hope a Bigger fool will pay more in the future


Nek minnit BTC hit's $57,600. And that's without the retail mania of the past. How many main stream media outlets in NZ are writing that BTC has hit ATH's in NZD ($93k NZD) ? Where's the froth?

[LEMON]

One thing I've been amazed by is the number of guys that I've never known to think about investing/trading that are in Crypto ...the hype is high .. everyone that knows I'm a Sharetrader first Question is do you trade Crypto ...

the number of tips I've had from hotel workers, Taxi drivers, labourers etc on the next great Crypto investment

BTC started was it 13yrs ago ... we have been told it's a Currency for many years BIGGER than the INTERNET etc .. yet I've never once heard anyone tell me are great it is as a currency ..

IMHO BTC follows the NDX if the latter goes down so will BTC ... its an investment BUY HOLD hope a Bigger fool will pay more in the future

"the number of tips I've had from hotel workers, Taxi drivers, labourers etc on the next great Crypto investment"
I don't know anyone in my personal life who invests in crypto, you must be some special guy or full of S

"IMHO" your opinions are just salt, you aren't there JBmurc, you're still 20 years behind like the rest of the NZ economy

[LEMON]

OCR 5.5, wonder if banks will compete on Mortgage rates now and you'll see some wacky bundles they'll start offering, this will make lending easier and home owners and new home buyers to over leverage again, POP, somethings brewing.

JBmurc will know he speaks to everyone, so I wouldn't be surprised if Adrian Orr told him a few crypto investment tips at the same time

[LEMON]

Just look at what the Saudis are.doing with their sovereign wealth fund and Aramco, risk is getting riskier

[stoploss]

OCR 5.5, wonder if banks will compete on Mortgage rates now and you'll see some wacky bundles they'll start offering, this will make lending easier and home owners and new home buyers to over leverage again, POP, somethings brewing.

JBmurc will know he speaks to everyone, so I wouldn't be surprised if Adrian Orr told him a few crypto investment tips at the same time
BNZ already offering 95 % LVR from a couple of weeks ago.

[LEMON]

https://businessinsider.mx/saudi-arabia-borrowing-help-fund-megaprojects-oil-prices-report-2024-2/?r=US&IR=T

[winner69]

Govt stock rates tumbling post OCR hold

[LEMON]

OCR 5.5, wonder if banks will compete on Mortgage rates now and you'll see some wacky bundles they'll start offering, this will make lending easier and home owners and new home buyers to over leverage again, POP, something brewing.

Hong Kong also, announced just recently today -

More evidence banks looking to compete, global housing going to go all out of whack again and many will be leveraged to the max, I fear maximum pain, countdown is on the horizon


https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/213839/(Budget-2024-25)-Hong-Kong-scraps-all-%E2%80%98spicy-measures%E2%80%99-on-property-market

[Daytr]

We’d get in better state earlier instead of letting things drag on and on ……should hav been more aggressive last year

NZ was one of the most aggressive in the world if not the most. The problem they had was fighting a Government was hell bent on spending more & ramping immigration to unsustainable levels.

[Baa_Baa]

NZ was one of the most aggressive in the world if not the most. The problem they had was fighting a Government was hell bent on spending more & ramping immigration to unsustainable levels.

And look where that got us to, heaven help the hapless mortgage holders and the unemployed or soon to be unemployed, who are at the core of the RBNZ strategy for financing the inflation recovery! It's so lopsided that it's ridiculous, they just create a new, or two, new hapless demographics that are fiscally punished beyond belief for the sake of a few percent of CPI. It's like shooting fish in a fishbowl, the hapless with no chance of escaping the pain are just tools that the RBNZ exploits to achieve some arbitrary figure of inflation that everyone experiences, but their targets hurt those who are the most affected, not those who have the means to remain largely unaffected. Bizarre, it beggars belief.

[bull....]

Bitcoin going para now. shame i dont own any .

ORR kept rates on hold :scared: wow must have been because taylor swift never came here

[causecelebre]

Bitcoin smashed through $104k NZD overnight on good spot volume. All 9 ETF's having broken all time trading volume after only half day trading. Four of the ETF's in top 20, IBIT #4 overall

[Daytr]

And look where that got us to, heaven help the hapless mortgage holders and the unemployed or soon to be unemployed, who are at the core of the RBNZ strategy for financing the inflation recovery! It's so lopsided that it's ridiculous, they just create a new, or two, new hapless demographics that are fiscally punished beyond belief for the sake of a few percent of CPI. It's like shooting fish in a fishbowl, the hapless with no chance of escaping the pain are just tools that the RBNZ exploits to achieve some arbitrary figure of inflation that everyone experiences, but their targets hurt those who are the most affected, not those who have the means to remain largely unaffected. Bizarre, it beggars belief.

It's certainly a blunt tool that inflicts pain unevenly and hurts those who can least afford it. My post was arguing against further hikes because NZ had already raised rates aggressively and the full impact of those rate rises is still filtering through.

The real issue is we are paying for the ridiculously low rates they introduced during Covid. When everyone was saying the real estate market was going to plummet due to the pandemic, I wrote a piece saying property was going to rocket, obviouslytgere was a quick backflip by many commentators. The problem this spike in house prices caused was that property had already pretty much doubled in about 7 years & then the pandemic added another unsustainable circa 35% to already elevated levels.

The RBNZ now has to manage an overpriced property market and doesn't want to bankrupt a whole lot of new home owners. It's a difficult balance considering there is still a large shortage of housing and we have had record inflation.

[LEMON]

Bitcoin smashed through $104k NZD overnight on good spot volume

Bitcoin never fails, coinbase centralized exchange failed, price was heading super bull and then coinbase crashed.

If it breaks 60k support weak below yet nothing ahead till 69k, shorts getting wrecked, late longs getting smashed after a 6k pull back off 64k. That's why bitcoiners say hodl, even though everyone thinks it's some joke, too volatile for trading during times like this

[bull....]

bitcoin short squeeze , check out short accounts who liquidated

[causecelebre]

Bitcoin never fails, coinbase centralized exchange failed, price was heading super bull and then coinbase crashed.

If it breaks 60k support weak below yet nothing ahead till 69k, shorts getting wrecked, late longs getting smashed after a 6k pull back off 64k. That's why bitcoiners say hodl, even though everyone thinks it's some joke, too volatile for trading during times like this

Haha yeah 9% swing in one hour. Algo's loving the volatility

[LEMON]

bitcoin short squeeze , check out short accounts who liquidated

1.6 billion in shorts liquidated

[Valuegrowth]

1.6 billion in shorts liquidatedHistory is repeating. For now some made killings. Some Lost, bankrupt, went to prison and disappeared putting followers in trouble and make huge losses on them in this crypto world. All over the world even in small counties people have addicted to crypto. There are some interesting stories about crypto Queens and kings. I can remember even some notorious groups played crypto. I will post them later.

[LEMON]

History is repeating. For now some made killings. Some Lost, bankrupt, went to prison and disappeared putting followers in trouble and make huge losses on them in this crypto world. All over the world even in small counties people have addicted to crypto. There are some interesting stories about crypto Queens and kings. I can remember even some notorious groups played crypto. I will post them later.

Well sure if you create a centralised exchange or try to build your own token network to inflate, dump or sell pixel art on top of a base layer network, you are not investing in a decentralized exchange network that is secure and finite, what you are doing is investing in a controlled speculation, with a few levers that depict the movement of that project, usually for self-interest of the creator or creators like many collapsed projects that similarly try to copy or build of the back of Bitcoins reputation as an honest network. Play games get ruined!

[LEMON]

That doesn't mean all "crypto" projects are bad, in fact a few are already mainstream and helping solve specific problems to advance innovation, yet they are not truly decentralized and all holders are not fairly treated, such as special rewards etc for staking networks etc. The majority of crypto is garbage and the TV programs you watch are failures within centralized exchanges, ponzi tokens, or swapped/wrapped coins being moved around and stored online via hot wallets. It's not a true representation of the many investors who have partaken in the Bitcoin network and continue to do so fairly for year's, just drama tv making drama tv

[Daytr]

1.6 billion in shorts liquidated

Time to short then?

[Valuegrowth]

Commodities always go down when Global downturn on the anvil ...which is the result of the Global war on inflation ...War on inflation is won by engineering slower growth and reducing consumption ....Nothing new here ...its happening on expected path ...all rates cycles go similarly and so on

Just reiterates that we are on right path ...Another cycle in operation Thank you alokdhir for the explanation.

[LEMON]

History is repeating. For now some made killings. Some Lost, bankrupt, went to prison and disappeared putting followers in trouble and make huge losses on them in this crypto world. All over the world even in small counties people have addicted to crypto. There are some interesting stories about crypto Queens and kings. I can remember even some notorious groups playing crypto. I will post them later.

I need to stop responding to you lads but it's hard not to when you make such bold statements, your claims are completely biased think of all the bank failures, corruption, gambling businesses, fiat cash laundering, political lobbying, manipulation of rates and currency, collapsing of housing markets and stock markets, the amount of scum who have been jailed, lost funds or disappeared and then maybe just maybe you'll see you are truly the one who is part of a notorious group playing fiat because your chosen governments holds you prisoner in it's fiat network, by keeping most of the population in debted slaves whilst they devalue your currency and make you believe your house is worth more, eh NAH mate your house isn't worth more, your currency is just being devalued by a chosen few!! You can't buy more with your new home price cause everything else has risen in price also, so you have to continue running on the hamster wheel just to stay afloat, long hours, less family time, more risk, more debt

And the best part they'll tax you the entire way, and when you finally pass away your family will be taxed for anything you manage to pass down for the majority of people, unless you know how to bypass it, which only a select few know how to do, Fiat Ponzi

[causecelebre]

History is repeating. For now some made killings. Some Lost, bankrupt, went to prison and disappeared putting followers in trouble and make huge losses on them in this USD world. All over the world even in small counties people have addicted to USD. There are some interesting stories about USD Queens and kings. I can remember even some notorious groups played USD. I will post them later.


There you go. I fixed that for you. 0.4% ($10B) of Bitcoin is estimated to be used for criminal activities er year. $800B - $2T estimated USD that get laundered per year. There are shonky dealings in every market.

[LEMON]

Time to short then?

Oh risky game lol

[Valuegrowth]

I need to stop responding to you lads but it's hard not to when you make such bold statements, your claims are completely biased think of all the bank failures, corruption, gambling businesses, fiat cash laundering, political lobbying, manipulation of rates and currency, collapsing of housing markets and stock markets, the amount of scum who have been jailed, lost funds or disappeared and then maybe just maybe you'll see you are truly the one who is part of a notorious group playing fiat because your chosen governments holds you prisoner in it's fiat network, by keeping most of the population in debted slaves whilst they devalue your currency and make you believe your house is worth more, eh NAH mate your house isn't worth more, your currency is just being devalued by a chosen few!! You can't buy more with your new home price cause everything else has risen in price also, so you have to continue running on the hamster wheel just to stay afloat, long hours, less family time, more risk, more debt

And the best part they'll tax you the entire way, and when you finally pass away your family will be taxed for anything you manage to pass down for the majority of people, unless you know how to bypass it, which only a select few know how to do, Fiat Ponzi Thank you for the response. I also know about some Fiat ponzi. I got good grasp of knowledge on that after attending a good lecture series last year. Even in the crypto world there had been fonzi scheme. MY mobile was added by somebody to one such scheme last year. Financial world is not 100% perfect. In other words we are sitting on a top of valcano. At any time can burst.

[LEMON]

Thank you for the response. I also know about some Fiat ponzi. I got good grasp of knowledge on that after attending a good lecture series last year. Even in the crypto world there had been fonzi scheme. MY mobile was added by somebody to one such scheme last year. Financial world is not 100% perfect.

You should attend more of those series, that ain't nothing. The fiat Ponzi is much deeper than the subtle things we see in our daily lives.

Don't forget crypto is a sickness of the fiat ponzi, bulk of crypto is fiat, hence why they sell their garbage tokens for fiat and continue to chase higher returns to compete in fiat Ponzi.

In the Bitcoin world, if you truly study and learn you want more Bitcoin every month than the last, hence why so many long-term holders continue to accumulate, it's better than gold! Sorry gold bugs but it simply is, you want to sell your fiat for bitcoin, unless you're a fiat minded bitcoin trader you sell your bitcoin for fiat then chase the price up getting less bitcoin every year

[bull....]

got paid to go for a walk this morning ............ stepn lol

[JBmurc]

"The number of tips I've had from hotel workers, Taxi drivers, labourers etc on the next great Crypto investment"
I don't know anyone in my personal life who invests in crypto, you must be some special guy or full of S

"IMHO" your opinions are just salt, you aren't there JBmurc, you're still 20 years behind like the rest of the NZ economy

I'm Stating the obvious ... so many without any experience in the markets are trading Crypto .. easy money...

the big end of town loves making money from the dumb retailers ...they join the pump

Salty well I invest in real companies producing minerals energy etc .. they are being priced right near the bottom of the cycle many trading on P/E sub 5 !!!

then you have retail funds flowing into the dead hole of Crypto ...for what ?? whats the user case it's pure BS

I like 99.9% of humans consume and am so glad many have invested in commodities so I can have a home and car and phone, internet, power,fuel etc. x 100,000

All Crypto does is CONSUME ENERGY to fulfil the greedy holder's beliefs fiat money is worthless and they hold DIGITAL GOLD as it took energy to create ..so does art ...
now I don't disagree fiat money's intrinsic value is only given by the tender value we humans give it .. aka take that NZD note of tender value to another country is has zero value ...unlike say a GOLD coin ...that has value everywhere

BTC is not GOLD ....as much as the advertising has ordained it .. funny thing is all the advertising and celebs that are paid to promote Cryptos aren't generally even paid in it ..very few businesses will take BTC ..

yet I've heard its bigger than the internet ****OFF

[LEMON]

Crypto is not easy money, most of retail gets ruined.

You are right, Bitcoin is not gold, good observation JB.

All things consume energy JBmurc, that's how things are produced, from consuming energy, learn a little

You've been reading too many Washington post articles from journalists about energy consumption on Bitcoin, that narrative is slowly being proved wrong like your salty attitude has regularly been wrong also, read from the engineers or energy grid operators, not some spotty journalist with an agenda.

Should you not look at retirement businesses, milk companies, or environmentally damaging gold mining companies and leave the innovation to those who put in the work

[ValueNZ]

Bitcoin produces nothing, and therefore is worth nothing. Simple as that.

It's not an investment, it's a vehicle for speculation

[LEMON]

Bitcoin produces nothing, and therefore is worth nothing. Simple as that.

It's not an investment, it's a vehicle for speculation

Property rights.

Investment vehicle/Savings (volatile granted) but has produced more savings ability for the average investor over a period of 15 years than any other asset, same said for inflation hedge everything get cheaper in bitcoin terms over the years.

The capture of wasted/excess energy and monetizing it. This is the most amazing thing but your pea brains can't grasp this for some reason

Protection against corrupt or rogue governments

Ability to bank yourself in poor regions where banking isn't for you unless you have a certain this or that, preventing the ability to build a business or apply for loans or mortgages

Power grid stability, read a little before you weep and claim it doesn't

Many more things Bitcoin produces and helps with real world problems, all the while your salty asses just threw the toys out of the pram cause you're too lazy to learn!

[ynot]

Its a crap shoot.

[LEMON]

Its a crap shoot.

Yawn.... .

[LEMON]

Crapshoot speculators have outperformed every one of these dusty old armchair rockers' portfolios for over 15 years, no wonder they are so salty.

Better we take this convo back to the crypto forum, good luck and remember ignorance is bliss until that day you realize you missed the boat completely for your useless fat ego

[JBmurc]

Crypto is not easy money, most of retail gets ruined.

You are right, Bitcoin is not gold, good observation JB.

All things consume energy JBmurc, that's how things are produced, from consuming energy, learn a little

You've been reading too many Washington Post articles from journalists about energy consumption on Bitcoin, that narrative is slowly being proved wrong as your salty attitude has regularly been wrong also, read from the engineers or energy grid operators, not some spotty journalist with an agenda.

Should you not look at retirement businesses, milk companies, or environmentally damaging gold mining companies and leave the innovation to those who put in the work

yes but the pump team ..along with many Journalists keep repeating BTC is Digital GOLD what is a picture of what we all know of BTC ?? how was it SOLD through advertising >>>14972


GOLD is not just hard money but has many applications... it has real user value ..


The boom in AI could mean a boom in industrial demand for precious metals in 2024.

Metals Focus, an independent precious metals research consultancy, released a note recently that said it expects the increased demand for chips powering AI technology to drive “widespread support for a range of precious metals bearing components.”


Gold and BTC shouldn't even be mentioned together one is real one is made up online and could be replaced by ever smarter digital tokens ...


what the internet states BTC is>
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset. It is a new type of asset that joins the ranks of traditional assets such as cash, gold, and real estate.... I agree it's like fiat cash but nothing like Gold RE ...

Its a digital ledger address---- 13rh783fg97[2vc98[1924f[294gv9898v98bwv98[bwv9b91wurb8b08bv0]gh2982498vb249ubv9]8b`89gv98249v294vb2bv089b4v]84bv

[ValueNZ]

Crapshoot speculators have outperformed every one of these dusty old armchair rockers' portfolios for over 15 years, no wonder they are so salty.

Better we take this convo back to the crypto forum, good luck and remember ignorance is bliss until that day you realize you missed the boat completely for your useless fat ego
The returns of productive assets will destroy the returns of unproductive assets over the long run. This is basic stuff...

[JBmurc]

The returns of productive assets will destroy the returns of unproductive assets over the long run. This is basic stuff...

yes coming soon >>>

14973

[LEMON]

What if those productive assets use a secure finite global digital currency that can be sent anywhere in the world outside of government constraints to store their profits rather than having the government devalue it and have those productive companies continuously chase higher returns for its speculator investors in the stock markets and rather focus back on making good products that last and aren't made of cheap materials. Wow now imagine, no that's right you can't, too held back

[LEMON]

You belong in the 1800s JBmurc

[causecelebre]

Bitcoin produces nothing, and therefore is worth nothing. Simple as that.

It's not an investment, it's a vehicle for speculation



The returns of productive assets will destroy the returns of unproductive assets over the long run. This is basic stuff...

Who cares.....dolla dolla dolla bills, y'all

[Panda-NZ-]

The returns of productive assets will destroy the returns of unproductive assets over the long run. This is basic stuff...

See real estate speculation which has engulfed industry not only here but Australia, the UK and even China.

[bull....]

might be the next meme sector

Humanoid robot startup Figure AI valued at $2.6 billion as Bezos, OpenAI, Nvidia join funding
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/robot-startup-figure-valued-at-2point6-billion-by-bezos-amazon-nvidia.html

[winner69]

Tony Alexander said 2 reasons why rates unlikely to move much this year were -

Business investment prospects for 2024 look munted. That is bad for productivity growth and will limit the extent of interest rate declines through this year

House building is also - guess what - munted for 2024 with developers becoming increasingly desperate to offload stock.

[ValueNZ]

What's Tony Alexanders track record predicting interest rates?

Cheers.

[Valuegrowth]

You should attend more of those series, that ain't nothing. The fiat Ponzi is much deeper than the subtle things we see in our daily lives.

Don't forget crypto is a sickness of the fiat ponzi, bulk of crypto is fiat, hence why they sell their garbage tokens for fiat and continue to chase higher returns to compete in fiat Ponzi.

In the Bitcoin world, if you truly study and learn you want more Bitcoin every month than the last, hence why so many long-term holders continue to accumulate, it's better than gold! Sorry gold bugs but it simply is, you want to sell your fiat for bitcoin, unless you're a fiat minded bitcoin trader you sell your bitcoin for fiat then chase the price up getting less bitcoin every year
The famous value investor Bill Miller went big on bitcoin when it collpsed in 2022. He has bit different type of of value approach when it comes to picking stocks and other assets. IMO we are going to have big sell_off
in assets sooner than later. This time is no different. I rebalanced again last month by trimming, adding more to my multibagger, selling and adding a new commodity producer as well. I can sleep peacefully now.

[mike2020]

Value I hope it wasn't sheep milk related.

[Bobdn]

For the three people that give a sh*t, APA (Smartshares, Asia Pacific ETF) just reached an all time high.

Hey but it's just Nividia carrying the whole market, right?

Hint: NVIDIA is not listed on the Nikkei or ASX or whatever the Korean exchange is called lol

Seriously though, I've got a bad feeling that this will end badly sometime between this afternoon and the next 70 years. Be careful out there, people.

[winner69]

Guy on TV said S&P 500 is now 17% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.

thats 17% in about 2 years

[Bobdn]

@winner, yes, it really does show that staying invested rather than timing the market is the best course of action, eh

(And by staying invested I mean in an actual market, not a handful of 5 or 10 companies)

[Valuegrowth]

Guy on TV said S&P 500 is now 17% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022.

thats 17% in about 2 yearsVery interesting. They(some analysts) used to say high Interst rates is bad for the stock market.In fact High interest rate was good for my portfolio. Going forward Even if stock market goes up or down I will be happy man.

[Valuegrowth]

@winner, yes, it really does show that staying invested rather than timing the market is best the course of action, eh

(And by staying invested I mean in an actual market, not a handful of 5 or 10 companies) I agree. By staying in the market we get life time opportunity. MY new approach is different from other portfolio managers. I have a concentrated portfolio. When they say Asia-Ex Japan I will look for Japan. When they say Japan, I will look for Asia_Ex Japan. When they say Magnificent 7,Bitcoin I will look for elsewhere.

[JBmurc]

For the three people that give a sh*t, APA (Smartshares, Asia Pacific ETF) just reached an all time high.

Hey but it's just Nividia carrying the whole market, right?

Hint: NVIDIA is not listed on the Nikkei or ASX or whatever the Korean exchange is called lol

Seriously though, I've got a bad feeling that this will end badly sometime between this afternoon and the next 70 years. Be careful out there, people.

Increased my Short of the NDX so hoping sooner than end of MARCH large correction

[Bobdn]

I'm always long, of course, and wouldnt know how to short.

A correction would be welcome however. I'm happy to take my lumps. Trees can't grow to the sky as Jack Bogle once said.

Hopefully we will still get to wear our DOW 40,000 caps at some stage this year and do some day drinking.

[Valuegrowth]

I'm always long, of course, and wouldnt know how to short.

A correction would be welcome however. I'm happy to take my lumps. Trees can't grow to the sky as Jack Bogle once said.

Hopefully we will still get to wear our DOW 40,000 caps at some stage this year and do some some day drinking.

I agree we must welcome events like market correction and market sell-off to take out heat from markets specially from overvalued assets. Jack Bogle also said: I see clouds on the horizon in an interview in the past. In fact, we are going to see some clouds.

[Valuegrowth]

https://research.macrosynergy.com/asset-overvaluation-and-bubbles/

[causecelebre]

In the meantime all the index are making ATH. NVDA up another 4% overnight to close at an ATH. I agree though a retracement would be healthy

[Valuegrowth]

In the meantime all the index are making ATH. NVDA up another 4% overnight to close at an ATH. I agree though a retracement would be healthyNow I’m fearful. But greedy for undervalued and overlooked assets. This is going to be the final leg in the longest uptrend in overvalued digital and physical assets. Experienced stock pickers will become winners.

[kiora]

And if they aren't winners they weren't experienced enough?

[winner69]

They sat the S&P 500 has closed higher in 16 out of the last 18 weeks. That hasn't happened since 1971.

this time next week it be 17 out of 19 …hasnt happened since goodness knows when

[bull....]

call option participation pretty strong at moment , which normally suggests the momentum trade ( which is the style outperforming at the moment may continue ). i have targets of 5500 - 5600 on the weekly as possible this yr and think nvidia the market darling could easliy go over 900 as it trades on an undemanding pe of 36 odd and analysts have targets of 850 - 1000+ odd

As for NZ ... yawn 3 yrs of sideways action

[Valuegrowth]

We are going to see more and more 52-week high stocks and all-time high stocks world wide. At some point they will hit the top. I am keeping my fingers crossed that my stocks also will hit 52-week high and all-time high. Overall it's not a bad year for investors if they have invested in correct stocks.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TM/toyota/stock-price-history

Historical daily share price chart and data for Toyota since 1976 adjusted for splits and dividends. The latest closing stock price for Toyota as of March 01, 2024 is 246.04.

The all-time high Toyota stock closing price was 246.04 on March 01, 2024.
The Toyota 52-week high stock price is 246.54, which is 0.2% above the current share price.
The Toyota 52-week low stock price is 132.35, which is 46.2% below the current share price.
The average Toyota stock price for the last 52 weeks is 171.04.



https://news.yahoo.com/toyota-hybrid-cars-along-132650213.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall



Once a laggard, Toyota (https://www.businessinsider.com/toyota-camry-america-best-selling-car-hybrid-only-2023-11?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com) is now well-positioned to meet a new EV market.
Toyota's hybrid-heavy approach is actually going well.
Even the company's competitors are coming around on hybrid


Toyota, the originator of the hybrid-car craze in the early 2000s, is poised to reclaim its crown as the king of green cars.

As demand for battery-electric vehicles cools and more shoppers look toward hybrids (https://www.businessinsider.com/car-buyer-interest-hybrids-as-electric-vehicle-adoption-slowing-2023-10?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com), the Prius-maker is among the most well-suited to meet the current moment in the transition to electric cars.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxVwqHa7Z_w

[causecelebre]

call option participation pretty strong at moment , which normally suggests the momentum trade ( which is the style outperforming at the moment may continue ). i have targets of 5500 - 5600 on the weekly as possible this yr and think nvidia the market darling could easliy go over 900 as it trades on an undemanding pe of 36 odd and analysts have targets of 850 - 1000+ odd

As for NZ ... yawn 3 yrs of sideways action

I can see all the above. Perma bull Tom Lee had 5200 from memory but possibly sees it extend to 5500. Good chance he’s on the money again

I’ve been mostly out of the NZX for a couple of years now. Not only is it underperforming when so many other international markets are at ATH’s it’s just so boring. Normally I don’t mind boring if it offers returns

[bull....]

I can see all the above. Perma bull Tom Lee had 5200 from memory but possibly sees it extend to 5500. Good chance he’s on the money again

I’ve been mostly out of the NZX for a couple of years now. Not only is it underperforming when so many other international markets are at ATH’s it’s just so boring. Normally I don’t mind boring if it offers returns

nz stock for some income about it for me at moment . anyway nvidia trading above 850
gold and bitcoin roaring must have been because of fed reverse twist talk

[bull....]

The latest company earnings season reporting shows overwhelmingly negative comments, consistent with economic recessionary conditions. Companies exposed to the domestic consumer, construction sector and primary sectors the worst hit

https://www.interest.co.nz/investing/126662/latest-company-earnings-season-reporting-shows-overwhelmingly-negative-comments

wow check out that chart of the nz stock market vrs world index . :scared: shocking

anyway some more recessionary news out yest

Plenty of properties being auctioned but only a third selling under the hammer

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/126663/plenty-properties-being-auctioned-only-third-selling-under-hammer

cant see how property prices going to go up without the demand

Centrix says as consumer arrears climb, the flow on effect continues to impact Kiwi businesses. Overall business defaults were up 28% year-on-year in January 2024, while company liquidations were up 16% over the same period

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/126668/centrix-says-consumer-arrears-climb-flow-effect-continues-impact-kiwi

PM Christopher Luxon forced to fly commercially to Australia after maintenance issue with Defence Force plane


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2024/03/pm-christopher-luxon-forced-to-fly-commercially-to-australia-after-maintenance-issue-with-defence-force-plane.html

Sums up infrastructure in NZ in general lol ... maybe they get one day that kiwisaver funds are wanting to invest in good infrastructure projects

back to talkling about stock markets see the asx200 just popping its head above a 3yr sideways range to new highs , if it holds could be up up and away 1000 pt move based on technicals ?

[mike2020]

Yip we are back to banana republic again. Maybe we can get the nzd back into the 40s. Thanks Grant. Job done.

[causecelebre]

BTC is an absolute monster. $68k USD at time of writing. ATH in most fiat currency crosses. My internal conspiracist is telling me the 20% retracement immediately folloing the ETF launches was a liquidity event for the insto's and the subsequent rally is founded on those entries

[LEMON]

The most strongly opinionated among us are "experienced" investors and soon digital assets will be sold to buy real assets like shiny rocks for the horse & cart to carry along the old dusty roads.

[LEMON]

JBmurc must be crying in his pillow right now

[thedrunkfish]

JBmurc must be crying in his pillow right now
I highly doubt that.
Good on you guys if you have done well, but I for one begin to cringe when friends start to mention the crypto investments they have, particularly those that can ill afford them.
I had a quick glance at coinmarketcap today to see digital assets named after memes and dogs etc increasing in value by 200% in a week, that enough for me thanks.

Im probably just salty because my NZX holdings have been performing so poorly though.....

[LEMON]

I highly doubt that.
Good on you guys if you have done well, but I for one begin to cringe when friends start to mention the crypto investments they have, particularly those that can ill afford them.
I had a quick glance at coinmarketcap today to see digital assets named after memes and dogs etc increasing in value by 200% in a week, that enough for me thanks.

Im probably just salty because my NZX holdings have been performing so poorly though.....

JBs been whinging the entire recovery

Meh, meme coins are scams, the majority of the meme coin gamblers get smoked
Very few make gains or at least they always end up returning it back to the market.

[LEMON]

Bitcoin just flipped silver

[JBmurc]

JBmurc must be crying in his pillow right now

why would that be? , I'm heavily invested in GOLD shares along with many other commodity stocks .. my Largest holding GAU:TSX hit $1.60 high overnight
I'm averaging upwards movement in portfolio value A$22,000 per day last 3x trading days ... and I really think the whole Commodity market is going BOOM esp once the FED is forced to drop rates

Also got a Large SNAS position that hasn't been so great of late thanks to NVIDIA ever vertical run upwards ...still last few hours NDX has gone from 18350 to present 18200

I think when the likes of NVIDA tops out the fall will be impressive much like we seen with the BTC Bubble the first time

...It's all about how long the present BTC bubble will run up sucking the retail fanboys in dreaming of lambo land..before the whales wipe them back out to repeat it all again ...

[LEMON]

why would that be? , I'm heavily invested in GOLD shares along with many other commodity stocks .. my Largest holding GAU:TSX hit $1.60 high overnight
I'm averaging upwards movement in portfolio value A$22,000 per day last 3x trading days ... and I really think the whole Commodity market is going BOOM esp once the FED is forced to drop rates

Also got a Large SNAS position that hasn't been so great of late thanks to NVIDIA ever vertical run upwards ...still last few hours NDX has gone from 18350 to present 18200 I think when the likes of NVIDA tops out the fall will be impressive much like we seen with the BTC Bubble the first time ... how long the present BTC bubble will run up on retail fanboys investing all there spare funds dreaming of lambo land..

"wHy WoUlD tHAt Be?"

Pause

Life story

[LEMON]

Im only kidding JB, good for you.

[JBmurc]

Im only kidding JB, good for you.

this is the thing with Crypto fanboys they go on like they are going make the rich list then you find out they have 10-20k tied up in BTC @ 60k USD LOL ...I won't be happy stopping my efforts till my Portfolio breaks into 8x figures

[LEMON]

this is the thing with Crypto fanboys they go on like they are going make the rich list then you find out they have 10-20k tied up in BTC @ 60k USD LOL ...I won't be happy stopping my efforts till my Portfolio breaks into 8x figures

Ah yes i forgot, you speak to every crypto holder in New Zealand, who openly share their entire portfolio everytime.
Blackrock should hire you for their research team.

[LEMON]

Don't worry JB, I'm sure there will be a decent pullback in Bitcoin, you can celebrate then. "It's DeAd"

[JBmurc]

Ah yes i forgot, you speak to every crypto holder in New Zealand, who openly share their entire portfolio everytime.
Blackrock should hire you for their research team.

Did I say that? no

As usual, you run off on a tangent .. I know you would never state how much you have tied up ... but those that I talked with never have very much Vs other assets .. a gamble speculation which is fine

[JBmurc]

Don't worry JB, I'm sure there will be a decent pullback in Bitcoin, you can celebrate then. "It's DeAd"

I don't think it will die as such just fade away

[LEMON]

One thing I've been amazed by is the number of guys that I've never known to think about investing/trading that are in Crypto ...the hype is high .. everyone that knows I'm a Sharetrader first Question is do you trade Crypto ...

the number of tips I've had from hotel workers, Taxi drivers, labourers etc on the next great Crypto investment

BTC started was it 13yrs ago ... we have been told it's a Currency for many years BIGGER than the INTERNET etc .. yet I've never once heard anyone tell me are great it is as a currency ..

IMHO BTC follows the NDX if the latter goes down so will BTC ... its an investment BUY HOLD hope a Bigger fool will pay more in the future


Did I say that? no

As usual, you run off on a tangent .. I know you would never state how much you have tied up ... but those that I talked with never have very much Vs other assets .. a gamble speculation which is fine

Well I mean you did state in this post that you speak to a lot of crypto holders from taxi drivers, to hotel workers, about the next hot thing, so not really a tangent.

Sure I've said previously I have a healthy 6 figures in Bitcoin. Take it as you please

I also have 0 debt, hold stocks, and even have some gold and silver as I've mentioned before.

[JBmurc]

Well I mean you did state in this post that you speak to a lot of crypto holders in this post from taxi drivers, to hotel workers, about the next hot thing, so not really a tangent.

Sure I've said previously I have a healthy 6 figures in Bitcoin. Take it as you please

I also have 0 debt, hold stocks, and even have some gold and silver as I've mentioned before.

Well, I'd say you would be one of the larger holders of Cryptos in NZ .. I never met anyone in person who's had all that much invested yet they all believe it could be worth millions.. IMHO as long as you're not selling your home or ticking up loans for it ..then gamble away .. I don't mind a gamble on my TAB/CFD/Casino accounts at times.. insane leverage on the likes of OIL Gold can turn a few hundred into tens thousands if you have the balls to hold

[LEMON]

Well, I'd say you would be one of the larger holders of Cryptos in NZ .. I never met anyone in person who's had all that much invested yet they all believe it could be worth millions.. IMHO as long as you're not selling your home or ticking up loans for it ..then gamble away .. I don't mind a gamble on my TAB/CFD/Casino accounts at times.. insane leverage on the likes of OIL Gold can turn a few hundred into tens thousands if you have the balls to hold

I don't know any in New Zealand either JB, one day I hope you come around. I wouldn't be here talking smack if I hadn't done the work, yet we deserve a victory lap after 2.5 years of mocking !!

I've always tried to help others understand Bitcoin (not crypto) better without telling them to invest. Yet the challenge faced is mockery, uneducated opinions, snap decisions and insult. I believe this is where the term toxic Bitcoin maxi comes from, when you finally give up and just give it back!

Anyway, if you ever change your mind I'm happy to share education with you via private message.

[JBmurc]

I don't know any in New Zealand either JB, one day I hope you come around. I wouldn't be here talking smack if I hadn't done the work, yet we deserve a victory lap after 2.5 years of mocking !!

I've always tried to help others understand Bitcoin (not crypto) better without telling them to invest. Yet the challenge faced is mockery, uneducated opinions, snap decisions and insult. I believe this is where the term toxic Bitcoin maxi comes from, when you finally give up and just give it back!

Anyway, if you ever change your mind I'm happy to share education with you via private message.

Unlikely but you never know

[causecelebre]

Did I say that? no

As usual, you run off on a tangent .. I know you would never state how much you have tied up ... but those that I talked with never have very much Vs other assets .. a gamble speculation which is fine

I limit crypto exposure to ~5%. I am almost happy to risk hat much for the asymmetric upside. It helps with my fear of FOMO and also see it as a good way to learn to handle volatility. That said, it's fundamentally a solution looking for a problem. It's currently got little utility but you can make a lot of money if you are on the right side consistently. Programatically, crypto is also very accessible to software at relatively low cost compared to other markets

[bull....]

Apple dragging down index's today

Apple’s iPhone Woes in China Deepen With a 24% Sales Plunge

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-05/apple-iphone-sales-in-china-plummet-24-as-vivo-not-huawei-becomes-best-seller?srnd=homepage-asia

mag7 trade might not be mag7 anymore ?

ytd returns

microsoft 9%
meta 41%
amazon 16%
apple -8%
tesla -28%
alphabet - 6%
nvidia 72%

chart still looks good overall at moment

CNBC Magnificent 7 Index
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.MAG7

[causecelebre]

The equal weighted s&p500 is not looking to bad either. All but ATH's

14978

[Daytr]

I limit crypto exposure to ~5%. I am almost happy to risk hat much for the asymmetric upside. It helps with my fear of FOMO and also see it as a good way to learn to handle volatility. That said, it's fundamentally a solution looking for a problem. It's currently got little utility but you can make a lot of money if you are on the right side consistently. Programatically, crypto is also very accessible to software at relatively low cost compared to other markets

I recently heard that Craig's IP has just made BTC available to their clients. This is what the ETF can provide I suppose, wider access without the clearing house concerns.
Better late than never to the party....

[Valuegrowth]

Non productive assets are hitting all time high. Mixed signals from the commodity market. Always market is creating new opportunities for intelligent stock and commodity picker. Good thing is some of our
stocks also could get hit new all time high before the next market sell-off.

[bull....]

Non productive assets are hitting all time high. Mixed signals from the commodity market. Always market is creating new opportunities for intelligent stock and commodity picker. Good thing is some of our
stocks also could get hit new all time high before the next market sell-off.

NZ stocks may hit a high before next sell-off - not looking good at this stage

[bull....]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (https://www.cnbc.com/jay-powell/) on Wednesday reiterated that he expects interest rates to start coming down this year, but is not ready yet to say when.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/06/powell-reinforces-position-that-the-fed-is-not-ready-to-start-cutting-interest-rates.html

anyway I see mag7 is leading the charge again today after yest sell-off
think we should look at these 3 now too

bitcoin soaring
gold soaring
nvidia soaring
looks like oil wants to break in to the 80s


anyway i see conway was saying yesterday RBNZ may drop rates quicker if fed drops first

[Valuegrowth]

Some analysts expected rate cut in the first quarter of 2024. According to my analysis, we may expect rate cut from Fed in the 2nd half of 2024 or in 2025. I, am not worried even if market and Interst rates go up or down. In every situation we get opportunities.

[Valuegrowth]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (https://www.cnbc.com/jay-powell/) on Wednesday reiterated that he expects interest rates to start coming down this year, but is not ready yet to say when.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/06/powell-reinforces-position-that-the-fed-is-not-ready-to-start-cutting-interest-rates.html

anyway I see mag7 is leading the charge again today after yest sell-off
think we should look at these 3 now too

bitcoin soaring
gold soaring
nvidia soaring
looks like oil wants to break in to the 80s


anyway i see conway was saying yesterday RBNZ may drop rates quicker if fed drops first They are hitting all time high. I think one of my stocks also could hit new all time high before the Coming big sell_off.

[Rawz]

They are hitting all time high. I think one of my stocks also could hit new all time high before the Coming big sell_off.

What stock are you talking about? the one you say that could hit a new all time high?

[Daytr]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (https://www.cnbc.com/jay-powell/) on Wednesday reiterated that he expects interest rates to start coming down this year, but is not ready yet to say when.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/06/powell-reinforces-position-that-the-fed-is-not-ready-to-start-cutting-interest-rates.html

anyway I see mag7 is leading the charge again today after yest sell-off
think we should look at these 3 now too

bitcoin soaring
gold soaring
nvidia soaring
looks like oil wants to break in to the 80s


anyway i see conway was saying yesterday RBNZ may drop rates quicker if fed drops first

I really can't see how this is particularly good news. I.e we were talking about Fed rate cuts around now & now it's some time this year, so could be six months plus away. The price action is displaying a frothy market imo.

[JBmurc]

I really can't see how this is particularly good news. I.e we were talking about Fed rate cuts around now & now it's some time this year, so could be six months plus away. The price action is displaying a frothy market imo.

looking like JUL24 for first cut .... I personal don't see more than a token cut unless we see a major crash in the markets ..small end of town US banking looking shaky

[Daytr]

looking like JUL24 for first cut .... I personal don't see more than a token cut unless we see a major crash in the markets ..small end of town US banking looking shaky

Meanwhile in NZ....
I still think rates might be cut a bit earlier than November.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/jarrod-kerr-kiwibank-chief-economist-predicts-more-mortgage-rate-cuts-will-come/

[bull....]

nvidia powering to the moon again , anyway overlay a nvidia and btc chart pretty cool how both seem to be in tandem moon shooting and both launched at similar timing

[Daytr]

nvidia powering to the moon again , anyway overlay a nvidia and btc chart pretty cool how both seem to be in tandem moon shooting and both launched at similar timing

Let's hope they have a safe landing...

[ynot]

looking like JUL24 for first cut .... I personal don't see more than a token cut unless we see a major crash in the markets ..small end of town US banking looking shaky

woops. wrong quote..

[Joshuatree]

nvidia powering to the moon again , anyway overlay a nvidia and btc chart pretty cool how both seem to be in tandem moon shooting and both launched at similar timing

Mike the Pie funds guy reckons Nvidia has a long way to go and is good buying,priced at only 30 times.Demand going ballistic,so there:)

[Panda-NZ-]

Let's hope they have a safe landing...

Tesla Mk.II, though at least Jensen seems rational and prefers to run his company rather than doing joe rogan podcasts.

Eventually there will be competitors who think "yeah, I want some of that too".

[Daytr]

Mike the Pie funds guy reckons Nvidia has a long way to go and is good buying,priced at only 30 times.Demand going ballistic,so there:)

Hey JT, 30 times what?
12 month forward forecast earnings?
I think the current P.E is 79.

[Daytr]

Tesla Mk.II, though at least Jensen seems rational and prefers to run his company rather than doing joe rogan podcasts.

Eventually there will be competitors who think "yeah, I want some of that too".

Early days, give Jensen time. 🤣

[Bobdn]

Did NVIDIA just add the entire capital value of the NZX50 in a single day? Pretty cool that a single company can do that.

[bull....]

Mike the Pie funds guy reckons Nvidia has a long way to go and is good buying,priced at only 30 times.Demand going ballistic,so there:)

yea i mentioned on the thread a few days ago pe was about 35 , so if it grows earnings at speed of this yr for next be very low pe next yr so i can see why mike saying could go much higher. the question is it in a straight line or over time ?

[Daytr]

yea i mentioned on the thread a few days ago pe was about 35 , so if it grows earnings at speed of this yr for next be very low pe next yr so i can see why mike saying could go much higher. the question is it in a straight line or over time ?

I love how the market now talks about a P.E. based on forecast forward earnings 12 months out. Some good sales people out there.

[bull....]

I love how the market now talks about a P.E. based on forecast forward earnings 12 months out. Some good sales people out there.

good measure to use to compare against the other mag7 stocks

[bull....]

ASX charging to new high's , joining the new high club

[audiav]

nvidia powering to the moon again , anyway overlay a nvidia and btc chart pretty cool how both seem to be in tandem moon shooting and both launched at similar timing
Interesting Kernel Global 100 fund, change between Jan and Feb. Apple dropped about 1.5% to 11% and NVDIA increased 1.5% to 8 ish % of total holding

[Bobdn]

@audiav, interesting!

I think NVIDIA was only added to the fund around mid last year? The share price has more than doubled since the addition.

[Valuegrowth]

Investors took “Asia-ex Japan” approach ignoring Japan. The end result was Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index hits a new all-time high after 30 years last month. Toyota stocks who bought around 5 in 1985 have gained around 50 times (50 baggers) by now. After hitting all time, currently it’s trading around $242. Toyota has confirmed $2 B investment in Brazil. In the meantime, On Fridy Toyota dropped by 2% and Nvidia plummeted by 5% (The biggest one-day drop in nine months).

[JBmurc]

Investors took “Asia-ex Japan” approach ignoring Japan. The end result was Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index hits a new all-time high after 30 years last month. Toyota stocks who bought around 5 in 1985 have gained around 50 times (50 baggers) by now. After hitting all time, currently it’s trading around $242. Toyota has confirmed $2 B investment in Brazil. In the meantime, On Fridy Toyota dropped by 2% and Nvidia plummeted by 5% (The biggest one-day drop in nine months).

And don't forget NVDA 2.07% fall in aftermarket trade !! so total fall some 7.6% .... at one point during trade NVDA fell close to 10% in 30mins !!!!
Another major fall on Monday could turn one of the largest GREED trades in history into MASS FEAR to get out and protect the profit

[Valuegrowth]

And don't forget NVDA 2.07% fall in aftermarket trade !! so total fall some 7.6% .... at one point during trade NVDA fell close to 10% in 30mins !!!!
Another major fall on Monday could turn one of the largest GREED trades in history into MASS FEAR to get out and protect the profit
It’s definitely wake up call for euphoric investors. Fear and greedy rule the market. I expect verry big sell-off in overvalued stocks in the current year after hitting new all-time high. Next big sell-off could come from next hot assets as well.

[Valuegrowth]

IMO Inflation unlikely to come down without a recession or deflation.

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/06/jerome-powell-house-testimony-interest-rates (https://www.axios.com/2024/03/06/jerome-powell-house-testimony-interest-rates)

"Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell (https://www.axios.com/economy/federal-reserve) told law makers on Wednesday that the central bank expects to cut interest rates "at some point this year," but not until policy makers have gained confidence the war on inflation (https://www.axios.com/2024/02/21/federal-reserve-interest-rate-cuts) is won."

[winner69]

How’s ARK hinges going these days?

[JBmurc]

It’s definitely wake up call for euphoric investors. Fear and greedy rule the market. I expect verry big sell-off in overvalued stocks in the current year after hitting new all-time high. Next big sell-off could come from next hot assets as well.

Could see further issues in the Banking space ....with the Federal Reserve's emergency Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is keeping regional banks afloat, ending tomorrow..

and many of these banks aren't small the largest twice the market cap of ANZ !!

[Daytr]

Could see further issues in the Banking space ....with the Federal Reserve's emergency Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is keeping regional banks afloat, ending tomorrow..

and many of these banks aren't small the largest twice the market cap of ANZ !!

The major banks will be rubbing their hands together. The consolidation of the banking industry since 2008 has been mind boggling & this is despite it being the major banks instigating the GFC and this claim of too big to fail and Governments have allowed them to just get bigger.

[winner69]

Whats up bull..

ASX in free fall

[Bikeguy]

Whats up bull..

ASX in free fall

Yes? What’s driving this?

[Valuegrowth]

Could see further issues in the Banking space ....with the Federal Reserve's emergency Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is keeping regional banks afloat, ending tomorrow..

and many of these banks aren't small the largest twice the market cap of ANZ !!Australia (ASX-200) has set a new record one-day fall. This could be just the beginning. Current financial system creates more debt and more money. They lead to more inflation and unstable banking system. Currently I don’t have signal banking stock in my portfolio other than one commodity stock and few boring stuff. Banking stocks are good for trading and not for investment exception is very strong banks.

[FTG]

Australia (ASX-200) has set a new record one-day fall.

Really - are you sure about that?

[Valuegrowth]

Really - are you sure about that? The biggest one day fall over the last couple of months. Their worst fall over the last 10 months.Nikkei is following ASX 200.

[bull....]

Whats up bull..

ASX in free fall

testing the breakout maybe. not uncommon for big asx drops after a good run and march is historically a seasonally weak month for asx on average.
i might worry more if it falls under 7600 being a trader

[bull....]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F02qPg_9O0g


Bitcoin can top $150,000 in the next 12-18 months, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

he's always been super bullish

[mike2020]

If as a total newbie I wanted to dip a toe in on these, how to do? Is there an ETF on either the ASX or NZX?

[Rawz]

If as a total newbie I wanted to dip a toe in on these, how to do? Is there an ETF on either the ASX or NZX?

I typed bitcoin into Sharesies search field and 13 etfs popped up. All US based. That’s nice and easy

[Snoopy]

If as a total newbie I wanted to dip a toe in on these, how to do? Is there an ETF on either the ASX or NZX?


If you must delve into the bitcoin realm, I would suggest looking at something like this.

https://vaultdigitalfunds.com/why-vault/

It seems to be well structured to take the optimal path of working with NZ's tax laws, to gain maximum net benefit for NZ investors.

SNOOPY

discl: not looking to invest in bitcoin myself

[bull....]

might want a AI PC too , the next generation of PC's
can then tell you to only invest a tiny fraction of your portfolio in crypto

[mike2020]

Thanks. I am thinking maybe 1 percent of portfolio max.

[kiwical]

If as a total newbie I wanted to dip a toe in on these, how to do? Is there an ETF on either the ASX or NZX?I purchased the Valkyrie bitcoin fund (BRRR) soon after launch via sharesies. Has done really well. In fact I sold half the other day to take some profit. I liked this one because they offered a "no fees" subscription for a few months to tempt buyers. Fees are 0.4% normally which is one of the lowest in the bitcoin eft space.

[bull....]

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod described the retail spending as "weak" and he said the 1.8% fall in February "was an even deeper fall than we had expected

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/126799/stats-nz-figures-show-retail-card-spending-fell-seasonally-adjusted-18-february

:scared: must be all buying at temu

[bull....]

Consumer spending 'tanks' as Kiwis put their cards away
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/03/consumer-spending-tanks-as-kiwis-put-their-cards-away.html

full on recession , no wonder stockmarket going no where

[winner69]

When’s US CPI print due bull?

[bull....]

When’s US CPI print due bull?

lost your glasses again winner

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago


https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2024-.html

bitcoing and gold loved it but i still believe the fed is on track


2024 is the year of the rate cut pivot — here’s when the world’s central banks will budge
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/13/when-are-the-worlds-central-banks-cutting-rates-in-2024.html

guestimate obviously

[bull....]

Wow :scared::scared:

Forsyth Barr sees a light at the end of the tunnel after ‘worst year on record’ for NZX-listed companies


New Zealand’s benchmark stock index closed on Wednesday at virtually the same level it was at before the pandemic struck more than four years ago

It has climbed just 1% in the past year and is unchanged from the same period two years ago

The stocks which make up the S&P/NZX 50 index have underperformed a global index of stocks by roughly 40% since 2020, the worst result since the market crash in 1987

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/126831/forsyth-barr-sees-light-end-tunnel-after-%E2%80%98worst-year-record%E2%80%99-nzx-listed-companies


ill add In the meantime

sp500 is up nearly 60% last 4 yrs

[Toddy]

Worst year on record. Repeat over and over.

Surely this should be ringing alarm bells down at the NZX.

Is it time to have a real debate about killing off the NZX and moving everything to Australia.

The real issue here is the lack of capital and liquidity on the NZX.

Time to consider that 'the light at the end of tunnel' is just not good enough.

[mike2020]

When everyone was feeling the wealth affect people were all over sharesies and the like. I bet to a large extent TDs have captured a lot of available funds the last 18 months. And look at the star performers of old. SLM. PGW. HGH. RYM. Add what you like.
At least people are not visibly shorting the nzx to death. Careful what you wish for.

[Aaron]

New Zealand’s benchmark stock index closed on Wednesday at virtually the same level it was at before the pandemic struck more than four years ago

[/SIZE]
The pandemic was around the March 2020 crash so is this the NZX all index or NZX 50? Both appear to be slightly ahead of the March 2020 lows, but I guess this is in nominal terms.

Good news if you thought you had missed the March 2020 investment opportunity of a life time as I notice quite a few shares back to close to their March 2020 lows.

I think sharesies recorded their highest ever daily turnover the other day. I guess this included overseas companies as well as the NZX.

[Bobdn]

The NZX50 under performance is concerning.

However, if there is ever an Old People's Homes and Power Boards Mania, like what we saw with the meme stocks recently, the tech bubble in the late 1990s and tulips in Holland, New Zealand investors will be "well positioned".

PS I have around 15 per cent of my financial assets in the NZX50 which I'm not touching. Who knows how things will play out

[bull....]

US Producer Prices Jump, Adding to Signs of Persisting Inflation


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-14/us-producer-prices-jump-adding-to-signs-of-persisting-inflation?srnd=homepage-americas

anyway is it time to stockpile chocolate

[bull....]

Property market may take a slide after july ... no good for those RV stocks esp with listings already so high

The Reserve Bank, in its latest Monetary Policy Statement, similarly noted there could be a flurry of listings after July 1, as investors who have owned their properties for longer than two years, but less than five or 10 years, opt to sell

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/government-details-proposal-to-reduce-the-bright-line-test/BLX6VRQYJZBJDP4GYKKR457TM4/

[bull....]

this be no good for economy and inflation

New Zealand homeowners facing an average rates rise of 15%


https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/14/new-zealand-homeowners-facing-an-average-rates-rise-of-15/

of course i blame the old fart's on council all those years gone by who just kept rates low to get re-elected and never invested in infrastructure for todays problems

[winner69]

Saw this today

The probability of a June rate cut has moved below 60% after the higher-than-expected CPI/PPI reports. A week ago this probability was 74% and a month ago it was 82%.

[Valuegrowth]

Global policy makers are struggling to control inflation. My other concern is geo politics. Airfare is going to go up further. Airport cost are also going up. Once commodity bull market start inflation will go up further. There will be day for commodity investors next.

[Rawz]

I'm at the Central Districts field days and can tell you outlook is grim....

I feel the economy is just hanging on but about to blow up.

[winner69]

I'm at the Central Districts field days and can tell you outlook is grim....

I feel the economy is just hanging on but about to blow up.

Reporting from the front line …we’ll done

Sounds pretty bad

[alokdhir]

Reporting from the front line …we’ll done

Sounds pretty bad

Thats pretty good outlook for stock market mate ...time to top up and leverage up ...imho ....needed to put that asap otherwise Rawz wud say read posts and then said ...:D

[bull....]

looks like oil wants to break in to the 80s




could be breaking out anyway next week big events

fed meeting

and

the big event next week

Nvidia GTC 2024: What to expect from the AI giant’s big conference
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-gtc-2024-what-to-expect-from-the-ai-giants-big-conference-152251933.html

[Bikeguy]

I'm at the Central Districts field days and can tell you outlook is grim....

I feel the economy is just hanging on but about to blow up.

Very well said, I am in total agreement.

[JBmurc]

Very well said, I am in total agreement.

Yes the Wanaka API wasn't much in the way of sales going the day I was there ...also talked with a friend that has an insurance broking company .. last year and for many previous average accounts in arrears 2-3 at present it's hitting 40+ per month not paying premiums

[thedrunkfish]

I'm at the Central Districts field days and can tell you outlook is grim....

I feel the economy is just hanging on but about to blow up.

What makes you say that Rawz? Im in the industrial sector in the region and things have got very very quiet all of a sudden.

[Rawz]

What makes you say that Rawz? Im in the industrial sector in the region and things have got very very quiet all of a sudden.

Each year i go to the Southern field days, CD field days and National field days at Mystery creek. Have done so for last 10 years while working in the asset finance industry. So Ive got a bit of a gut feel based on many years of talking to people at the coal face. Just seems suppliers are a bit desperate for sales, too much inventory that needs to be shifted. Punters not buying etc. I havnt seen a start up business for about 9 months. Was seeing 1 a week in 2021 buying diggers, trucks etc from the suppliers.

Interest only requests now, arrears creeping up... Just stuff like that you know what i mean?

Could be wrong about the economy blowing up. Im 90% invested and soon to be 100% once i buy another lot of TWR this week. I own 3 stocks. Findi, Tower and 2CC. All 3 should go alright if the economy goes kaboom.

[thedrunkfish]

Each year i go to the Southern field days, CD field days and National field days at Mystery creek. Have done so for last 10 years while working in the asset finance industry. So Ive got a bit of a gut feel based on many years of talking to people at the coal face. Just seems suppliers are a bit desperate for sales, too much inventory that needs to be shifted. Punters not buying etc. I havnt seen a start up business for about 9 months. Was seeing 1 a week in 2021 buying diggers, trucks etc from the suppliers.

Interest only requests now, arrears creeping up... Just stuff like that you know what i mean?

Could be wrong about the economy blowing up. Im 90% invested and soon to be 100% once i buy another lot of TWR this week. I own 3 stocks. Findi, Tower and 2CC. All 3 should go alright if the economy goes kaboom.

Very interesting insights Rawz, thanks.

[mike2020]

When the likes of TWR and a few others like ATM are in vogue it really shows you how bad the NZX is currently doing and that includes most of the top 50. Slim pickings. We wait for HGH to get under a dollar and OCA is only a good buy in the 50s now? PGW? RYM? AIR? Is this symptomatic of the country as a whole? Or in a hole?

[Bobdn]

It's just hard to know how AI and advances in robotics will impact NZ companies in the future. The productivity gains could be incredible - far beyond what we saw with Lotus 1 2 3 or Word Perfect.

For example, could robotic carers or nurses be the next big thing in the rest home sector within 5 years or so? I'm not talking about a clunky "Robbie the Robot" but a sophisticated synthetic/android like the skin jobs found in the motion picture "Blade Runner". They are virtually indistinguishable from humans. Advances in robotics could have a huge impact on the bottom line of many sectors.

These are the sorts of "big ideas" I try to incorporate into my stock selection process.

[winner69]

Copper prices troughed in June 2023 and are now accelerating ….maybe a signal the Fed should forget about rate cuts and start considering the possibility of rate hikes.

[Panda-NZ-]

For example, could robotic carers or nurses be the next big thing in the rest home sector within 5 years or so? I'm not talking about a clunky "Robbie the Robot" but a sophisticated synthetic/android like the skin jobs found in the motion picture "Blade Runner". They are virtually indistinguishable from humans. Advances in robotics could have a huge impact on the bottom line of many sectors.

Highly unlikely. Robotics still has a way to go and it will be better for repetitive and predictable tasks.

If do we have runaway tech progress then it may cause both deflation and social instability.

[Daytr]

Copper prices troughed in June 2023 and are now accelerating ….maybe a signal the Fed should forget about rate cuts and start considering the possibility of rate hikes.

Not sure about rate hikes, but as I posted a week or two ago, there is an argument for no rate cuts.
Seems the Fed is signalling otherwise though.

NZ on the other hand, I still think we will see rate cuts earlier than most of the market is predicting, which could be interesting for the NZD.

[bull....]

Australia Signals It’s Done Hiking Rates, Sending Currency Lower
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-19/rba-drops-tightening-bias-after-holding-key-interest-rate?srnd=homepage-asia

[t.rexjr]

Not sure about rate hikes, but as I posted a week or two ago, there is an argument for no rate cuts.
Seems the Fed is signalling otherwise though.

NZ on the other hand, I still think we will see rate cuts earlier than most of the market is predicting, which could be interesting for the NZD.

We need stability more than anything. The effects of all these hikes are yet to be felt in full, yet it's already been a long drought for some. Just neeed a clear signal that we've topped and this is the norm for the next period. Wheels are turning.

[bull....]

IMF warns New Zealand Government against borrowing to fund tax cuts, fearing this could exacerbate inflation
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/imf-warns-against-borrowing-to-fund-tax-cuts-fearing-this-could-exacerbate-inflation/YXZ46WCTLNASBIWFM2FS25IT5M/

should do them last yr of 3 yr term .... madness doing it this yr

[Bobdn]

Another record close on the S&P500. Bit of a monster day.

I now feel nothing as markets grind higher and I become richer. I'm completely desensitized.

Need to invest in a single NZ stock to reconnect with loss pain again. "Need to see if I still feel..."

[Rawz]

Another record close on the S&P500. Bit of a monster day.

I now feel nothing as markets grind higher and I become richer. I'm completely desensitized.

Need to invest in a single NZ stock to reconnect with loss pain again. "Need to see if I still feel..."

the loss pain is coming for ETFs dont worry about that. I reckon now is the exact time you want to be a stock picker rather than have broad exposure.

good luck to both methods

[bull....]

Another record close on the S&P500. Bit of a monster day.

I now feel nothing as markets grind higher and I become richer. I'm completely desensitized.

Need to invest in a single NZ stock to reconnect with loss pain again. "Need to see if I still feel..."

lol

anyway powell say all the right stuff. risk on assets powered up after and during speech

Fed meeting recap: Everything Powell said during Wednesday’s market-moving news conference
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/fed-meeting-today-live-updates-on-march-fed-rate-decision.html

[bull....]

and NZ market opens down lol

[Toddy]

Oh gee. The economy shrunk. Who would have thought.

[Toddy]

Did Shaza at the ANZ get that one right.

[causecelebre]

I understand US inflation ex shelter is around 1% and given that shelter is so lagging the FED must be considering real time data.

I have so little faith in the NZ economy. I try not to read the main stream media but if the headlines are to be considered NZ is more concerned about divisiveness than pulling together to get this once awesome country back to being a productive nation. Again i'm trimming my NZ holdings and reallocating overseas as I did in '22