Black Monday

[bull....]

Did Conway say anything of note?

Apparently said no policy mistakes were made that resulted in the dire inflation outcomes of the last 3 yrs. Can’t learn unless you say you were wrong

not much of note probably was told not to take spotlight from ORR. I agree with him data and stats info in NZ is very poor to make judgements from.

HERE THE SPEECH

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/events/2024/01/the-importance-of-quality-research-and-data.pdf

[Daytr]

This article is from August but still relevant now especially in light of the Fed meeting and the under reported or discussed quantitative tightening or tapering cycle the Fed is now in.

https://www.ft.com/content/62451148-cad1-4caa-bac6-7d78648889d6

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RpvaH-Wo3E

[Valuegrowth]

High inflation will follow deflation. Bull market will follow bear market.

Currently, Real estate sector is more vulnerable than other sectors throughout the world and heavily indebted. I talked to few people from Asia to Canada. It’s a dream for having their first home. On top of that rent inflation has skyrocketed.

What would be end results for unsustainable asset prices?

Evergrande—once China’s largest real estate developer—was forced to liquidate on January 28th.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-real-estate-boom-and-crisis/#google_vignette

[Baa_Baa]

I should put this on the 'investment strategies' thread, but I think it applies here.

You can't and won't achieve personal investing success and wealth, by worrying about everything going bad, or that might go bad in the world and everyone else's opinions of why, wherefore and whatever. If you could turn off the news forever, disconnect from all 'commentary' and opinions forever, and just study companies, maybe you will be a successful investor. Seriously, nobody should care or even consume, the opinions or the narratives of those who are paid or motivated to tell their or someone else story. It is just noise. Focus on what is important, study it, learn everything about it that affects it, invest or not and monitor that investment closely. Make your own decisions, without influence of anyone. Success will come, and it will be your own success.


High inflation will follow deflation. Bull market will follow bear market.

Currently, Real estate sector is more vulnerable than other sectors throughout the world and heavily indebted. I talked to few people from Asia to Canada. It’s a dream for having their first home. On top of that rent inflation has skyrocketed.

What would be end results for unsustainable asset prices?

Evergrande—once China’s largest real estate developer—was forced to liquidate on January 28th.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-real-estate-boom-and-crisis/#google_vignette

[alokdhir]

FED has just reaffirmed the theme which market had already acted upon and will continue to push ahead in time . World over all markets follow FED eventually ...so we will also ...NZD coming back as US 10Y bounce peaked and now back below 4% ...simple theme ahead ...rates will drift down ...stocks will gain slowly ...pace can hasten in next 6 months but endgame is already confirmed ....2021-2024 part done ....2024 to 2027 part is simple reversal of last 3 years ...surely not linearly but trend wise . We wont get post pandemic kind of rush ...but more like pre pandemic levels or normalcy . I reckon 2024 most likely be 20% gains year for NZX as soon as market gets confidence with our RBNZ future actions ...like they have in US about FED

[bull....]

FED has just reaffirmed the theme which market had already acted upon and will continue to push ahead in time . World over all markets follow FED eventually ...so we will also ...NZD coming back as US 10Y bounce peaked and now back below 4% ...simple theme ahead ...rates will drift down ...stocks will gain slowly ...pace can hasten in next 6 months but endgame is already confirmed ....2021-2024 part done ....2024 to 2027 part is simple reversal of last 3 years ...surely not linearly but trend wise . We wont get post pandemic kind of rush ...but more like pre pandemic levels or normalcy . I reckon 2024 most likely be 20% gains year for NZX as soon as market gets confidence with our RBNZ future actions ...like they have in US about FED

fed as expected , pushed back on march cut

as for NZ you better tune into orr on the 15th or 16th feb when he doing a big speech in regards to rates and inflation

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/02/expert-says-narrative-around-interest-rates-has-definitely-shifted-expects-them-to-drop-in-2024.html

[bull....]

more central banks talking rate cuts

LONDON — Bank of England (https://www.cnbc.com/bank-of-england/) Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday signaled that financial markets may be correct in their expectations for the future path of rate cuts.
Speaking to CNBC, Bailey said that he was “not going to commit” to a specific timeline for rate cuts, but added that he did not object to the market consensus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/01/bank-of-englands-bailey-hints-markets-could-be-getting-it-right-on-rate-hikes.html

except the RBNZ lol

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economics-consultancy-says-nz-gdp-growth-will-better-than-expected/63BDDLUE6REWTBQSE5MSJWJXPI/

[ValueNZ]

Anyone else feel that investment advisors are god damn idiots? That's my experience with them anyway. I have a family member that has been encouraged to participate in the speculation that is owning shares in Nivida, AMD, Netflix ect.

What good are they if they aren't providing sound investment advice.

[bull....]

amazing meta results just released . first div ever 50c 50billion buyback stock hitting new highs in after market. buy of the century yr ago lol

[causecelebre]

Anyone else feel that investment advisors are god damn idiots? That's my experience with them anyway. I have a family member that has been encouraged to participate in the speculation that is owning shares in Nivida, AMD, Netflix ect.

What good are they if they aren't providing sound investment advice.

I've owned NVDA since early 2017, NFLX since mid 2022 among others.....i'm not complaining.

[ValueNZ]

I've owned NVDA since early 2017, NFLX since mid 2022 among others.....i'm not complaining.
The insanity cannot go on forever... Multiples cannot expand into infinity.

They may have been decent positions when you first bought them, but the price is now significantly different to then.

[causecelebre]

The insanity cannot go on forever... Multiples cannot expand into infinity.

They may have been decent positions when you first bought them, but the price is now significantly different to then.

When I first bought NVDA it had a PE of over 36, BRK was under 11. Would you have bought Nvidia then?

I agree though NVDA PE of 83 is a little strong :)

[bull....]

ASX back at high's , uranium stocks going berserk

[ValueNZ]

When I first bought NVDA it had a PE of over 36, BRK was under 11. Would you have bought Nvidia then?

I agree though NVDA PE of 83 is a little strong :)
No clue if I would have bought it. Probably not.

But let's hear your revenue growth and margin expectations for Nvidia for the next 10 years.

[bull....]

Nvidia ceo just on bloomberg he was talking about sovereign AI , future of growth where they power whole countries , also how every single business on the planet in the future will need generative AI

this is from there blog

Singtel, NVIDIA to Bring Sovereign AI to Southeast AsiaSingapore’s leading service provider chooses the NVIDIA AI platform to deliver generative AI to its regional customers.

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/singtel-sovereign-ai/

[causecelebre]

ASX back at high's , uranium stocks going berserk

Somethings gotta power AI lol

[causecelebre]

No clue if I would have bought it. Probably not.

But let's hear your revenue growth and margin expectations for Nvidia for the next 10 years.

Not my jam man. I trade whats in front of me, not whats in the crystal ball. But you do you

[Panda-NZ-]

The insanity cannot go on forever... Multiples cannot expand into infinity.

They may have been decent positions when you first bought them, but the price is now significantly different to then.

Market cap is instructive in cases like this.

IE; Is Meta worth $1T? Microsoft $3T? How much further can this increase etc.. a simple doubling in price would place MSFT at $6T.

I don't really play with individual stocks and prefer leveraged ETF's which generate the same kind of returns but eliminates the business risk.

[ValueNZ]

Market cap is instructive in cases like this.

IE; Is Meta worth $1T? Microsoft $3T? How much further can this increase etc.. A simple doubling in price would place MSFT at $6T.

I don't really play with individual stocks and prefer leveraged ETF's which generate the same kind of returns but eliminates the business risk.
Market cap is never instructive... Just tells you the price of the company and not what a business is intrinsically worth.

[SailorRob]

I bought META at around $200.

Then the very best thing that could happen, happened.

It DROPPED more than 50%

Did I cry?

Or did I.... BUY?

[alokdhir]

Latest payrolls data have altered the map ....FED will hold for longer till they are more confident ...but surely stagflation not happening too ...still good for US stocks as if SP not rising due to valuation boost from falling rates then SP rising from EPS growth ....economy withstanding high rates very well ...so FED will keep them on till they see confident signs of it cracking ...they have dual mandate ...full employment and Inflation control ...holding them here for another 3-6 months can still manage both ...so why they wont do that ...maybe only politics can answer that

[ValueNZ]

Latest payrolls data have altered the map ....FED will hold for longer till they are more confident ...but surely stagflation not happening too ...still good for US stocks as if SP not rising due to valuation boost from falling rates then SP rising from EPS growth ....economy withstanding high rates very well ...so FED will keep them on till they see confident signs of it cracking ...they have dual mandate ...full employment and Inflation control ...holding them here for another 3-6 months can still manage both ...so why they wont do that ...maybe only politics can answer that
Focus on the things that are important and knowable. Macro is important but unknowable, the best investors in the world just focus on micro.

[alokdhir]

Focus on the things that are important and knowable. Macro is important but unknowable, the best investors in the world just focus on micro.

I was trying to check your Micro knowledge on 2024 Stocks comp board but couldn't find it ....maybe u prefer giving pearls of wisdom only ...nothing objective .

Good on u mate ...keep it up :t_up:

[ValueNZ]

I was trying to check your Micro knowledge on 2024 Stocks comp board but couldn't find it ....maybe u prefer giving pearls of wisdom only ...nothing objective .

Good on u mate ...keep it up :t_up:
The stock competiton IMO is a waste of time, the New Zealand stock market is too overvalued and the comp encourages speculative picks given the short time frame. If I were to choose it would consist of the 4 main listed retirement stocks, and then maybe STU?

[causecelebre]

amazing meta results just released . first div ever 50c 50billion buyback stock hitting new highs in after market. buy of the century yr ago lol

Market loved it. Staggering 20% pump today.

[Muse]

Latest payrolls data have altered the map ....FED will hold for longer till they are more confident ...but surely stagflation not happening too ...still good for US stocks as if SP not rising due to valuation boost from falling rates then SP rising from EPS growth ....economy withstanding high rates very well ...so FED will keep them on till they see confident signs of it cracking ...they have dual mandate ...full employment and Inflation control ...holding them here for another 3-6 months can still manage both ...so why they wont do that ...maybe only politics can answer that

aye a sensational macro performance from the yanks - I never would have picked the landing they've had a year or two ago.

Two high profile economists in America....one being Larry Summers, who correctly warned about inflationary dangers just before it took off, said there would have to be a hard(ish) landing to get inflation back down.

Then Paul Krugman - who was utterly wrong in his shilling that there was no inflationary danger and critical of Larry Summers warning - was right in picking the disinflationary trends that have led to its fall while maintaining economic output. Both 50/50, or as accurate as my trusty coin.

Does feel pretty stagflationary here in NZ.

[SailorRob]

The stock competiton IMO is a waste of time, the New Zealand stock market is too overvalued and the comp encourages speculative picks given the short time frame. If I were to choose it would consist of the 4 main listed retirement stocks, and then maybe STU?

Not even Buffett would have any chance in this comp. Totally ridiculous but bit of fun it's fine.

ANYONE on sharetrader wants to take in SR over a decade, let's go. But nobody will challenge me.

[ValueNZ]

ANYONE on sharetrader wants to take in SR over a decade, let's go. But nobody will challenge me.
I'll do it for fun, although if I were to guess you're more likely to win.

[winner69]

The median age of U.S. lawmakers at 59 makes it perhaps America's most elderly profession—even older than farmers at 56

Prob great investors if they like Nancy

[thedrunkfish]

SR The insecurity drips from your posts. How about going out and enjoying your so called success instead of trying to impress people on the internet.

[SailorRob]

SR The insecurity drips from your posts. How about going out and enjoying your so called success instead of trying to impress people on the internet.

Why can't I do both, don't have much time for ST as refitting the new yacht but always find a few minutes here and there.

How's the 'business' going? Be nice to settle down on a couple of acres eh, tinker round in the old shed.

[SailorRob]

Berkshire hitting all time highs.

Again.

What everyone misses however is that it's doing so without multiple expansion.

Multiples to earnings are very very low.

They can expand a lot, but they don't need to.

Disc, hold. A lot.

Wanting to buy more

[thedrunkfish]

Why can't I do both, don't have much time for ST as refitting the new yacht but always find a few minutes here and there.

How's the 'business' going? Be nice to settle down on a couple of acres eh, tinker round in the old shed.

It's been an excellent 12 months thanks for asking, bit quiet as of late but that comes with the territory in the trades.

Yes it would be, but theres no hurry.

[JBmurc]

ASX back at high's , uranium stocks going berserk

May it continue ....

[JBmurc]

Not even Buffett would have any chance in this comp. Totally ridiculous but bit of fun it's fine.

ANYONE on sharetrader wants to take in SR over a decade, let's go. But nobody will challenge me.

what are the details of this challenge ..over 10 years... stocks picks?

[SailorRob]

what are the details of this challenge ..over 10 years... stocks picks?


CAGR of entire net worth.

No way would I beat you thought with a 50% CAGR you are the top of the world, Buffett never came close to what you have done.

I might do 10% if lucky.

[JBmurc]

CAGR of entire net worth.

No way would I beat you thought with a 50% CAGR you are the top of the world, Buffett never came close to what you have done.

I might do 10% if lucky.

LOL yes unless the wife lets me sell the family home and throw that into my share trading along with the commercial property etc hard to grow our family CAGR much faster than present levels

I'd say our Properties value have reduced last couple of years ..

[Valuegrowth]

I should put this on the 'investment strategies' thread, but I think it applies here.

You can't and won't achieve personal investing success and wealth, by worrying about everything going bad, or that might go bad in the world and everyone else's opinions of why, wherefore and whatever. If you could turn off the news forever, disconnect from all 'commentary' and opinions forever, and just study companies, maybe you will be a successful investor. Seriously, nobody should care or even consume, the opinions or the narratives of those who are paid or motivated to tell their or someone else story. It is just noise. Focus on what is important, study it, learn everything about it that affects it, invest or not and monitor that investment closely. Make your own decisions, without influence of anyone. Success will come, and it will be your own success. Thank you so much Baa_Baa for your great adivice.

[Valuegrowth]

May it continue .... For me commodity stocks are better than tech stocks. Commodity stocks can become as hot as tech stocks. I have seen at different times different commodities have had high demand due to specific reasons which includes speculation as well. I prefer commodity stocks over tech stocks because I can understand them. Surprisingly WB didn’t like commodities stocks whereas other investors found great long-term opportunities there.

[SailorRob]

LOL yes unless the wife lets me sell the family home and throw that into my share trading along with the commercial property etc hard to grow our family CAGR much faster than present levels

I'd say our Properties value have reduced last couple of years ..

Nobody who does 50% CAGR over the long term has commercial property. That would be insanely stupid.

At 50% you turn a million into 140 million in 10 years.

[bull....]

Market loved it. Staggering 20% pump today.

yep huge jump for a stock with this kind of MC. what about nvidia new high's again too. incredible. ride the wave man :t_up: this is how you make serious money fast

[winner69]

Saw this comment about US markets …. Are they right

After a historic rally in stocks, permabears got blown up. Now that they're all broke (and some even retired), it's time for stocks to correct.

[Balance]

Saw this comment about US markets …. Are they right

After a historic rally in stocks, permabears got blown up. Now that they're all broke (and some even retired), it's time for stocks to correct.

Kinda makes sense except that the bears have had their gains as well.

Have a look at the price of lithium and lithium mining stocks - commodity bears have made absolute killings there.

Then there’s the automated self-driving car hype where the bears made huge killings too.

[SailorRob]

yep huge jump for a stock with this kind of MC. what about nvidia new high's again too. incredible. ride the wave man :t_up: this is how you make serious money fast

Yes this is how it's always happened in the past.

Ride the wave, make serious money fast.

Investing 101 folks.

That easy.

[SailorRob]

I'll do it for fun, although if I were to guess you're more likely to win.

From what I've seen, you'd have every chance.

My confidence doesn't come from my own abilities, I might struggle to do 10%.

My confidence comes from the idiotic stuff that others are doing.

Also if you have a significant portion of net worth in a house then I win almost automatically.

[alokdhir]

aye a sensational macro performance from the yanks - I never would have picked the landing they've had a year or two ago.

Two high profile economists in America....one being Larry Summers, who correctly warned about inflationary dangers just before it took off, said there would have to be a hard(ish) landing to get inflation back down.

Then Paul Krugman - who was utterly wrong in his shilling that there was no inflationary danger and critical of Larry Summers warning - was right in picking the disinflationary trends that have led to its fall while maintaining economic output. Both 50/50, or as accurate as my trusty coin.

Does feel pretty stagflationary here in NZ.

NZ will get around its worries thru IMMIGRATION I reckon ...most of the domestic inflation part is supply oriented due to labour woes ...all see immigration as negative as it fuels demand like rent etc but dont see as loosening labour market which is the key to supply side easing and wage pressure etc .

On balance NZ will be ok ...I reckon rates may need drop faster here then in US ...as our RBNZ is coming out of long summer break ...it will take time to convey its thoughts to our sleepy market . Banks though have changed tack recently ...all looking for mid year cuts now ...August can at best become June/July ...stocks will catch up with that theme soon ..maybe after Feb review

[JBmurc]

For me commodity stocks are better than tech stocks. Commodity stocks can become as hot as tech stocks. I have seen at different times different commodities have had high demand due to specific reasons which includes speculation as well. I prefer commodity stocks over tech stocks because I can understand them. Surprisingly WB didn’t like commodities stocks whereas other investors found great long-term opportunities there.

Yes in the last 5yrs commodity stocks have given me some brilliant returns my best..CNB,POD,LRS,MAY,WWI all tiny micro caps that have seen peaks 1000-1500% Cap gain returns...recently I had AKM return just over 100% within 6wk swing trade ..purchased early DEC23(still holding most for larger gains to come IMHO) RDM purchased same timeframe just over 50% ...

reason why I'm focused on the commodity stocks mainly ASX but also TSX these days...

much talk around here of the likes of NIVIDA which has done very well last 5yrs up 1600%++ .. but chances of going much higher ...yeah no thanks

[JBmurc]

Nobody who does 50% CAGR over the long term has commercial property. That would be insanely stupid.

At 50% you turn a million into 140 million in 10 years.

yes hindsight should have sold the commercial property during the COVID property madness peak and walked with a tidy ROI (30x 40x on cap invested)

As to the family home yes that would be a good chunk of change to invest with(DEBT free) ...if we didn't have kids then that could have also been sold during the NZ Property peak..

Property is a great way to increase one's CAGR via lending leverage ... I invest tens thousands of my capital over 5yrs sell the commercial property thats been paying all costs and paying down the loan for Cap gain in the hundreds of thousands ROI around 200%pa

But that leverage is limited by the bank with my line of work ... aka banks aren't fans of Sharetraders doesn't matter how many millions in assets one has or the history of company gross trading profits.. also not living in major City small rural NZ isn't seen as safe in property values

[SailorRob]

yes hindsight should have sold the commercial property during the COVID property madness peak and walked with a tidy ROI (30x 40x on cap invested)

As to the family home yes that would be a good chunk of change to invest with(DEBT free) ...if we didn't have kids then that could have also been sold during the NZ Property peak..

Property is a great way to increase one's CAGR via lending leverage ... I invest tens thousands of my capital over 5yrs sell the commercial property thats been paying all costs and paying down the loan for Cap gain in the hundreds of thousands ROI around 200%pa

But that leverage is limited by the bank with my line of work ... aka banks aren't fans of Sharetraders doesn't matter how many millions in assets one has or the history of company gross trading profits.. also not living in major City small rural NZ isn't seen as safe in property values

Yeah true. It's amazing how much better you've been able to do than Buffett in his prime, probably many others like you out there. 50% CAGR sounds light.

The problem I'd have is what to do with the tens of millions of dollars as I live on 30/40k a year.

[Bobdn]

Good for you. I never feel deprived or go without at that level of spending.

I started on $40k but adjust for inflation each year so I'm up to $49,700 this year.

The four per cent rule: it's a good rule of thumb but I'm accumulating a lot more than I'm spending now. Something for other potential early retirees to consider. It might be too conservative.

[SailorRob]

Good for you. I never feel deprived or go without at that level of spending.

I started on $40k but adjust for inflation each year so I'm up to $49,700 this year.

The four per cent rule: it's a good rule of thumb but I'm accumulating a lot more than I'm spending now. Something for other potential early retirees to consider. It might be too conservative.

Awesome, and as you accumulate more then if you wish you can increase spending.

You're doing it the right way.

[Bobdn]

I love going down the safe withdrawal rate rabbit hole. Michael Kitces has done a lot of interesting work on this.

https://youtu.be/6h0aWiHHdXs?si=_S7r08ySj5lQdKeU

[SailorRob]

Good for you. I never feel deprived or go without at that level of spending.

I started on $40k but adjust for inflation each year so I'm up to $49,700 this year.

The four per cent rule: it's a good rule of thumb but I'm accumulating a lot more than I'm spending now. Something for other potential early retirees to consider. It might be too conservative.

I was stunned to find the other day that minimum wage in the hand is 40k a year, so a couple can easily live a good life on min wage, let alone 2 minimum wages.

I forgot to say that me living on 30/40k that's 2 people not just me.

[Daytr]

I think there is an argument for the US not to lower rates at all. Share markets are on a tear, US economy seems to be holding up well & meanwhile the Fed continues their tapering cycle.

One of the big issues if they don't is it makes US debt more expensive which is not great for US sovereign debt levels.

[Bobdn]

@SR $40,000 for two people is good going but yes totally doable. I spent $21600 last year as part of a personal challenge. Couldn't go any lower I feel. That's my base to cover all costs.

Doesn't include house maintenance or replacement of vehicle or other things like that.

I'm "allowed" to spend all accumulated underspends which means a month in Thailand this year and maybe removal of a tree on my property and other bits and pieces.

I rebalanced my holdings last week. Sold 2 per cent of my shares and added that to my cash to get it back to 5 per cent cash; 75 per cent shares and 20 per cent bonds. This is JL Collin's retirement allocation as well, from memory, in case anyone is interested.

Rebalancing always feels dirty and a waste of time - especially when the market is hitting new all time highs every day. Better to do it in the Happy Times however. Not having cash in a monster down turn feels "unsettling".

[ValueNZ]

Also if you have a significant portion of net worth in a house then I win almost automatically.
Wouldn't dream of it, at least at the current prices.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes in the last 5yrs commodity stocks have given me some brilliant returns my best..CNB,POD,LRS,MAY,WWI all tiny micro caps that have seen peaks 1000-1500% Cap gain returns...recently I had AKM return just over 100% within 6wk swing trade ..purchased early DEC23(still holding most for larger gains to come IMHO) RDM purchased same timeframe just over 50% ...

reason why I'm focused on the commodity stocks mainly ASX but also TSX these days...

much talk around here of the likes of NIVIDA which has done very well last 5yrs up 1600%++ .. but chances of going much higher ...yeah no thanks

My congratulations for your achievement! My second biggest gain came from a commodity company. When others got excited about Shipping and transportation sector during Covid-19, I parked my money in few commodity companies. At one point I had over 90% in commodity stocks. My biggest mistake was not keeping them for long term and missing out mutibagger returns.

I also thought about TSX. Can I trade or invest in Canadian stocks through sharesies, tiger broker, Jarden direct, ASB or any other New Zealand broker?

There are better companies than NIVIDA in this world. Besides I can see unsustainable extended PE ratio for the tech sector. At some point tech sector could have the biggest correction as the sector has overheated. Everybody is giving advice to buy Magnificent seven and talking on social media all over the world. I saw the same hype for shipping and transportation stocks during covid-19 period. Later they came down like hot potatoes.

If I am correct average PE ratio for NIVIDA during last 10 years was around 48. Current PE ratio is around 87. Stocks are very pricey too.

Why do I get risk by chasing todays so called overvalued hot stocks when there are future winners in the commodity sector and other boring places?

Cheers!

[Daytr]

Wouldn't dream of it, at least at the current prices.

Do you think house prices are going to come down?

[Daytr]

I was stunned to find the other day that minimum wage in the hand is 40k a year, so a couple can easily live a good life on min wage, let alone 2 minimum wages.

I forgot to say that me living on 30/40k that's 2 people not just me.

Not if your rent is $7 - 800 per week which is pretty normal now.

[ValueNZ]

Do you think house prices are going to come down?
No clue, and I think anyone telling you they do know is full of sh1t.

[ValueNZ]

“Unfortunately, the real minimum wage is always zero, regardless of the laws, and that is the wage that many workers receive in the wake of the creation or escalation of a government-mandated minimum wage, because they lose their jobs or fail to find jobs when they enter the labor force. Making it illegal to pay less than a given amount does not make a worker’s productivity worth that amount—and, if it is not, that worker is unlikely to be employed.” - Thomas Sowell

[Daytr]

No clue, and I think anyone telling you they do know is full of sh1t.

Yeah houses prices come down all the time.
It's a 50:50 call.
Let alone there is a large shortage of housing.
Pretty tough call that one. 🙄

[troyvdh]

Ive been watching the tele....leaky homes ....Ive read some where a while back that this could cost NZ INC about 40 billion dollars.
Sorry ...I understand that these issues still exist.

[SailorRob]

Do you think house prices are going to come down?

That's really irrelevant.

[SailorRob]

Not if your rent is $7 - 800 per week which is pretty normal now.

Yeah not much sense in doing that.

[SailorRob]

Yeah houses prices come down all the time.
It's a 50:50 call.
Let alone there is a large shortage of housing.
Pretty tough call that one. 🙄

Yep long term return is always zero for obvious reasons.

[SailorRob]

Yeah houses prices come down all the time.
It's a 50:50 call.
Let alone there is a large shortage of housing.
Pretty tough call that one. 🙄

Hmmm what has happened to a house in Europe that has stood for 500 years? In real terms?

Or America for 200 years?

Let's THINK folks. Engage the brain.

[Daytr]

That's really irrelevant.

Not to the statement I was responding to made by ValueNZ.

[Daytr]

Hmmm what has happened to a house in Europe that has stood for 500 years? In real terms?

Or America for 200 years?

Let's THINK folks. Engage the brain.
Hmmm speaking of relevance.

[mike2020]

On ST there is a different set of people, probably top 5% wealth wise. I did see a Herald article about a guy with no debt and 4 ml plus his house working at 69 because he felt worried they would run out of money. Obviously just did not want to stay home and didn't like fishing or golf.

I know people on two average wages, paying over a 1000 a week to the bank, with kids in school. Others paying rent in the same situation. It is not easy out there.
For a number of years I used to live on 20k out of my 48k salary and save the rest (drawings really) because EVERYTHING was paid for by the business. Rates, insurance, car, the lot. All I had to worry about was food, clothing and medical at that point. Even food I had a large part free. How much you spend isn't always discretionary.
A guy I met who told me one of his workers lived on $1000 a year, this is about 20 years ago. Grew all his own food, went nowhere, single living on a farm, I have to use caps here. THAT'S NOT NORMAL.

[ratkin]

On ST there is a different set of people, probably top 5% wealth wise. I did see a Herald article about a guy with no debt and 4 ml plus his house working at 69 because he felt worried they would run out of money. Obviously just did not want to stay home and didn't like fishing or golf.

I know people on two average wages, paying over a 1000 a week to the bank, with kids in school. Others paying rent in the same situation. It is not easy out there.
For a number of years I used to live on 20k out of my 48k salary and save the rest (drawings really) because EVERYTHING was paid for by the business. Rates, insurance, car, the lot. All I had to worry about was food, clothing and medical at that point. Even food I had a large part free. How much you spend isn't always discretionary.
A guy I met who told me one of his workers lived on $1000 a year, this is about 20 years ago. Grew all his own food, went nowhere, single living on a farm, I have to use caps here. THAT'S NOT NORMAL.

I have never earned much money, instead went for the low spend method to being comfortable. In NZ most the best things are free or very cheap. Worked one of the best jobs there is, postie, and used the spare time wisely, trading on shares and betfair.

Saved as much as possible and put it all to work, now a few years off full retirement and in a very comfortable position. The difficult part for me will be changing to a mentality where I start spending that money, so my overall wealth starts to decline. My miserly nature will find that tough. I am already thinking to keep working past 65 as I enjoy it, tried retiring a few years ago, and did not really enjoy it.

Need to be more like my father who timed it to perfection, ran out of money and whisky pretty much at the same time he expired.

[alokdhir]

I have never earned much money, instead went for the low spend method to being comfortable. In NZ most the best things are free or very cheap. Worked one of the best jobs there is, postie, and used the spare time wisely, trading on shares and betfair.

Saved as much as possible and put it all to work, now a few years off full retirement and in a very comfortable position. The difficult part for me will be changing to a mentality where I start spending that money, so my overall wealth starts to decline. My miserly nature will find that tough. I am already thinking to keep working past 65 as I enjoy it, tried retiring a few years ago, and did not really enjoy it.

Need to be more like my father who timed it to perfection, ran out of money and whisky pretty much at the same time he expired.

So well done and doing ...I admire you both's positive thinking...money and its happiness is overrated in my humble view ...one can be really happy without much of it ...just about basic necessities ....more one has causes more trouble ...more often then not ...all the vices and associated troubles come from that ...EGO is one of the biggest trouble associated with money / easy money etc .

Wish u luck and happiness :t_up:

[mistaTea]

I have never earned much money, instead went for the low spend method to being comfortable. In NZ most the best things are free or very cheap. Worked one of the best jobs there is, postie, and used the spare time wisely, trading on shares and betfair.

Saved as much as possible and put it all to work, now a few years off full retirement and in a very comfortable position. The difficult part for me will be changing to a mentality where I start spending that money, so my overall wealth starts to decline. My miserly nature will find that tough. I am already thinking to keep working past 65 as I enjoy it, tried retiring a few years ago, and did not really enjoy it.

Need to be more like my father who timed it to perfection, ran out of money and whisky pretty much at the same time he expired.

There is the whole FIRE movement (Financial Independence, Retire Early) where people can really get their expenses down to incredibly small amounts and then end up in the position where they can retire in their fourties if they started young.

Whether you actually retire or not is another story, as a lot of people enjoy work. Whether you do retire or not is irrelevant... what is important in my view is getting to the point where you have the option to retire asap. That way if you do continue to work it will be fantastic because you will only be doing it because you actually want to, not because you have to.

[ValueNZ]

Yeah houses prices come down all the time.
It's a 50:50 call.
Let alone there is a large shortage of housing.
Pretty tough call that one. 
Lol thats no surprise that Daytr knows the direction the property market is headed...

[ValueNZ]

There is the whole FIRE movement (Financial Independence, Retire Early) where people can really get their expenses down to incredibly small amounts and then end up in the position where they can retire in their fourties if they started young.

Whether you actually retire or not is another story, as a lot of people enjoy work. Whether you do retire or not is irrelevant... what is important in my view is getting to the point where you have the option to retire asap. That way if you do continue to work it will be fantastic because you will only be doing it because you actually want to, not because you have to.
My goal is to get to a point where it makes more sense to manage my portfolio rather than work a full time traditional job. I love the idea of reading annual reports, fund manager reports, letters to shareholders, ect all day. Buffett got there at 25, I'd be happy to get there by 35.

[mistaTea]

My goal is to get to a point where it makes more sense to manage my portfolio rather than work a full time traditional job. I love the idea of reading annual reports, fund manager reports, letters to shareholders, ect all day. Buffett got there at 25, I'd be happy to get there by 35.

Yeah, for sure.

As I say - the main thing is having the option.

That is all that money means to me - options.

So I am not worried about having a specific amount of money for the sake of it. If you are completely driven by ego, then you won't ever feel fulfilled...whether you have $1M, $10M or $1B sitting in the bank.

Even if you worked up to a portfolio of $1M (a lot of money to most, but not some astronomical value in 2024) and it paid a net 3% dividend yeid that would be $30K a year (or $578 a week). That would give the average person a lot more options in life, including the option to only work part time.

And if you start early enough, getting to $1M is not a herculean task for most. And by the time you hit $1M I expect your dividend yield would be much more than 3%.

You definitely do not need to be worth hundreds of millions, or even tens of millions of dollars to have options and life and feel fulfilled.

$750K - $1.5M of income producing assets would be more than 'enough' for the vast majority. They may not be flying private jets around the globe, but I think they would be just fine with very little stress in their life (well, financial stress anyway!).

As has been pointed out, vast sums of money can also be problematic for some as it leads to bad behaviour driven by ego.

[ValueNZ]

Yeah, for sure.

As I say - the main thing is having the option.

That is all that money means to me - options.

So I am not worried about having a specific amount of money for the sake of it. If you are completely driven by ego, then you won't ever feel fulfilled...whether you have $1M, $10M or $1B sitting in the bank.

Even if you worked up to a portfolio of $1M (a lot of money to most, but not some astronomical value in 2024) and it paid a net 3% dividend yeid that would be $30K a year (or $578 a week). That would give the average person a lot more options in life, including the option to only work part time.

And if you start early enough, getting to $1M is not a herculean task for most. And by the time you hit $1M I expect your dividend yield would be much more than 3%.

You definitely do not need to be worth hundreds of millions, or even tens of millions of dollars to have options and life and feel fulfilled.

$750K - $1.5M of income producing assets would be more than 'enough' for the vast majority. They may not be flying private jets around the globe, but I think they would be just fine with very little stress in their life (well, financial stress anyway!).

As has been pointed out, vast sums of money can also be problematic for some as it leads to bad behaviour driven by ego.
I get what you're saying. Cash probably has little utility to anyone past probably $5-10M, but at the same time having a massive NW means you can do enormous good for the people around you. Family member gets sick? You have the ability to get them private healthcare with no noticeable loss to your NW. It's those sorts of situations where you want deep pockets.

Plus, it gives you the ability to be extremely charitable. Say you're worth $50M at 65 earning 10% a year, you could easily donate $2.5M every year to any charity you want, live large spending 500k whilst travelling the world and still have your NW increase each year. There is no way you could do nearly as much good for society if you were only worth a million.

[mistaTea]

I get what you're saying. Cash probably has little utility to anyone past probably $5-10M, but at the same time having a massive NW means you can do enormous good for the people around you. Family member gets sick? You have the ability to get them private healthcare with no noticeable loss to your NW. It's those sorts of situations where you want deep pockets.

Plus, it gives you the ability to be extremely charitable. Say you're worth $50M at 65 earning 10% a year, you could easily donate $2.5M every year to any charity you want, live large spending 500k whilst travelling the world and still have your NW increase each year. There is no way you could do nearly as much good for society if you were only worth a million.

Yes, agree with that. For those who are of an altristic breed, then higher NW allows them to help more.

I know Warren used to tussle over this with his late wife Susie. He was loaded from his late twenties/early thirties and she wanted to give a big % of their earnings to various charities now.

Buffett wanted to wait because he knew he could compound money at a high rate and then be able to give much more later.

All good stuff.

Would just reiterate that for the average person who wants to have much more control over his or her destiny (and doesn't necessarily want to save the world) then the 'number' they need to start having more options in life is nowhere near as big as what many believe.

[Daytr]

Lol thats no surprise that Daytr knows the direction the property market is headed...

It's incredible you don't.
Over time the housing market will only appreciate. There would have to be a gigantic shift in fundamental drivers to change that.
We have seen some big shifts in the last few years, throwing everything at the housing market & it corrected slightly and is now showing signs of price rises again.

Interest rates will be lower this year, 100k immigrants become residents & able to buy property, tax policy is going to be changed to be more favorable towards investors.

[ValueNZ]

It's incredible you don't.
Over time the housing market will only appreciate. There would have to be a gigantic shift in fundamental drivers to change that.
We have seen some big shifts in the last few years, throwing everything at the housing market & it corrected slightly and is now showing signs of price rises again.

Interest rates will be lower this year, 100k immigrants become residents & able to buy property, tax policy is going to be changed to be more favorable towards investors.
Thanks good to know that the housing market will only appreciate and that price multiples will only continue to expand into infinity.

[ValueNZ]

I've said this repeatedly, but when the worlds best investors are yelling from the rooftop that macro analysis gives no edge in a market, you should probably listen to them.

[Daytr]

Thanks good to know that the housing market will only appreciate and that price multiples will only continue to expand into infinity.

Well that's your extrapolation, not mine.


I've said this repeatedly, but when the worlds best investors are yelling from the rooftop that macro analysis gives no edge in a market, you should probably listen to them.

You repeat a lot of things, mostly what SailorRob has already repeated monotonously.

[causecelebre]

You repeat a lot of things, mostly what SailorRob has already repeated monotonously.

I thought they were the same person.

[Muse]

I thought they were the same person.

…….ditto……..

[ValueNZ]

I'll take that as a compliment thanks guys.

[JBmurc]

Do you think house prices are going to come down?

I believe that unless we see a significant decrease in interest rates, it will be challenging for New Zealand's property prices to rise more than low single figure percent pa.

This is unless we witness a substantial increase in household incomes. It's all based on basic math.... and leverage banks will only lend you so much .. with living costs not exactly heading down..
how does a renter paying $800pw save up the deposit to push BUY prices up 100k pa etc ..

Downside in price I also don't see it ...as it's just so expensive to build ...$4k per sqm etc ....land prices

"So, unless we can import cheap labor and materials...""So, unless we can import cheap labour and building materials..."???

Also how many new people coming to NZ looking for a roof over their heads?
..yes new wealthy immigrants could pay more than average

[Daytr]

I believe that unless we see a significant decrease in interest rates, it will be challenging for New Zealand's property prices to rise more than low single figure percent pa.

This is unless we witness a substantial increase in household incomes. It's all based on basic math.... and leverage banks will only lend you so much .. with living costs not exactly heading down..
how does a renter paying $800pw save up the deposit to push BUY prices up 100k pa etc ..

Downside in price I also don't see it ...as it's just so expensive to build ...$4k per sqm etc ....land prices

"So, unless we can import cheap labor and materials...""So, unless we can import cheap labour and building materials..."???

Also how many new people coming to NZ looking for a roof over their heads?
..yes new wealthy immigrants could pay more than average

Yep don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote. I wouldn't be surprised to see the rental bubble ease somewhat as I think the immigration numbers have been fundamental in the rental market as well as Kiwis returning home & renting waiting out the market before they buy.

[SailorRob]

It's incredible you don't.
Over time the housing market will only appreciate. There would have to be a gigantic shift in fundamental drivers to change that.
We have seen some big shifts in the last few years, throwing everything at the housing market & it corrected slightly and is now showing signs of price rises again.

Interest rates will be lower this year, 100k immigrants become residents & able to buy property, tax policy is going to be changed to be more favorable towards investors.

Mathematically impossible for a non productive (and depreciating asset) to compound faster than GDP.

All across the world over the last 600 years returns have been less than zero for obvious reasons.

NZ has two booms in 20 years and everyone thinks this is the new normal.

Land is everywhere and technology means easier to build...

You can't make a nation off selling the same houses to each other for more and more of your income.

[SailorRob]

And by the time you hit $1M I expect your dividend yield would be much more than 3%.

What's the correlation between a million dollar portfolio and a higher dividend yield????

[SailorRob]

I believe that unless we see a significant decrease in interest rates, it will be challenging for New Zealand's property prices to rise more than low single figure percent pa.

This is unless we witness a substantial increase in household incomes. It's all based on basic math.... and leverage banks will only lend you so much .. with living costs not exactly heading down..
how does a renter paying $800pw save up the deposit to push BUY prices up 100k pa etc ..

Downside in price I also don't see it ...as it's just so expensive to build ...$4k per sqm etc ....land prices

"So, unless we can import cheap labor and materials...""So, unless we can import cheap labour and building materials..."???

Also how many new people coming to NZ looking for a roof over their heads?
..yes new wealthy immigrants could pay more than average

Exactly. If Wayne and sharleen can't borrow more and their REAL incomes don't rise then what do you have?

If they can borrow 2 million then every $hitbox in NZ is 2 million tomorrow morning.

[Daytr]

Exactly. If Wayne and sharleen can't borrow more and their REAL incomes don't rise then what do you have?

If they can borrow 2 million then every $hitbox in NZ is 2 million tomorrow morning.

Look at Sydney prices.
They were deemed unaffordable 15 years ago but have defied logic as it's not the average income who can afford houses, it's others who invest, buy for themselves or their children and it's the monied who can drive prices well beyond the metrics of the average wage earner.
They also pay a large stamp duty and have a CGT in place.
Returns will be lower than they have been no doubt, but it doesn't mean they still can't rise at 5 - 7% per annum.

[SailorRob]

Look at Sydney prices.
They were deemed unaffordable 15 years ago but have defied logic as it's not the average income who can afford houses, it's others who invest, buy for themselves or their children and it's the monied who can drive prices well beyond the metrics of the average wage earner.
They also pay a large stamp duty and have a CGT in place.
Returns will be lower than they have been no doubt, but it doesn't mean they still can't rise at 5 - 7% per annum.

Yeah we've been through this before.

The median NZ house price won't be 2.5 million by 2040.

Anyone can pick a single city out of thousands to make a point...

[mistaTea]

What's the correlation between a million dollar portfolio and a higher dividend yield????

I think what I was (perhaps clumsily) getting at is you could probably expect a 3% yield now if you invested $1M.

However if you dollar cost averaged over time (like most would need to) then by the time you hit $1M the yield to your average price paid would likely be higher than 3%.

[ValueNZ]

Returns will be lower than they have been no doubt, but it doesn't mean they still can't rise at 5 - 7% per annum.
See you're suggesting multiple expansion again unless you're suggesting incomes will rise at that rate, which is also idiotic.

[SailorRob]

See you're suggesting multiple expansion again unless you're suggesting incomes will rise at that rate, which is also idiotic.

Exactly, and while this can and obviously has happened for a time, it doesn't take long to figure out why it cannot continue.

But then again has anyone been to Rotorua lately

[JBmurc]

Yeah we've been through this before.

The median NZ house price won't be 2.5 million by 2040.

Anyone can pick a single city out of thousands to make a point...


Maybe if the min wage was like $50ph= NZD value continue to drop in purchasing power

Very low rates again 2-3% and being able to fix over decades not just 5yrs MAX and having banks happy to lend out at massive leverage to home buyers ...

[Daytr]

See you're suggesting multiple expansion again unless you're suggesting incomes will rise at that rate, which is also idiotic.

Nope not suggesting that at all.
I am saying housing can outpace incomes as it has done for decades.

I also didn't say it was going to continue until 2040 or more. Who knows that far out.
What will the population of NZ in 2040?
How many houses will we have built in that time?
What will the rest of the world look or NZ look like in that time?
Who knows.
I am referring to the next few years.
What is idiotic is your assumptions you make extrapolating my posts and not for the first time.

[ValueNZ]

Nope not suggesting that at all.
I am saying housing can outpace incomes as it has done for decades.
Why'd you say 5-7% as if it were an expectation, and you already said previously that it was obvious that houses were going to rise in price.

[SailorRob]

See you're suggesting multiple expansion again unless you're suggesting incomes will rise at that rate, which is also idiotic.


Nope not suggesting that at all.
I am saying housing can outpace incomes as it has done for decades.

Oh man. Posted without comment.

[Daytr]

Why'd you say 5-7% as if it were an expectation, and you already said previously that it was obvious that houses were going to rise in price.

Yes in the near term I stand by that I.e the next few years. I think they will continue to rise beyond that as well on average as it's what property does but perhaps the rate of increase won't remain the same but 5% p.a. is a pretty reasonable estimate,
Who knows beyond that.
Who knows what inflation will do in that time.

[ValueNZ]

Yes in the near term I stand by that I.e the next few years. I think they will continue to rise beyond that as well on average as it's what property does but perhaps the rate of increase won't remain the same but 5% p.a. is a pretty reasonable estimate,
Who knows beyond that.
Who knows what inflation will do in that time.
So you are suggesting multiple expansion... Why did you say that you didn't just a couple minutes ago.

"Not suggesting that at all"

[Daytr]

So you are suggesting multiple expansion... Why did you say that you didn't just a couple minutes ago.

"Not suggesting that at all"

You keep referring to multiple expansion without a time frame so it's meaningless.

[ValueNZ]

I don't think Daytr was actually taught ratios at primary school...

Daytr, I can refer you to a tutor if you'd like.

[Daytr]

I don't think Daytr was actually taught ratios at primary school...

Daytr, I can refer you to a tutor if you'd like.

As SailorRob said, not worth commenting on.

[ValueNZ]

I'm dead serious Daytr, I have a friend who can teach you. A man with a career like yours can afford it.

[Daytr]

Oh man. Posted without comment.

Well perhaps you should.
What is the average wage growth in NZ in the last 20 years. If you don't think property values will outpace that you are dreaming.

[SailorRob]

I think they will continue to rise beyond that as well on average as it's what property does

Hang on... We've already discovered that in real terms it does not nor ever has over any decent period of time.

You haven't read shillers work?

[Daytr]

Hang on... We've already discovered that in real terms it does not nor ever has over any decent period of time.

You haven't read shillers work?

I don't care. All I said was property is likely to rise above the rate of wage inflation.
As usual you are shifting the argument as you do when on shaky ground.

[Valuegrowth]

Any rapid rise in property prices from the current unaffordable prices could lead to next crisis. Consumer purchasing power will go down further. This time is not different.

https://land.tech/blog/housing-booms-and-busts-since-1975

[SailorRob]

See you're suggesting multiple expansion again unless you're suggesting incomes will rise at that rate, which is also idiotic.


I don't care. All I said was property is likely to rise above the rate of wage inflation.
As usual you are shifting the argument as you do when on shaky ground.

Ok so you're saying that multiples to income will continue to expand.

As ValueNZ keeps saying....

So how will this happen in practice and to what multiple will we get to?

[Muse]

Something for everyone. Longest available data series I could find - 1962 to 2023 (61 years)

House prices rose at a 8.2% CAGR (2.56% real)
CPI rose at 5.5%
Wages rose at 6.6%% (1.04% real)
All from 30 June 1962 to 30 September 2023, per the RBNZ inflation calculator.

Nominal GDP (because house prices are nominal, otherwise you'd need to convert them to real to compare to real GDP)
Rose 8.4% from March 1962 (annual basis) to September 2023 (annual basis). That equates to ~2.74% real)
Source - Stats NZ infoshare for 1962 data, RBNZ for recent data.

[SailorRob]

Something for everyone. Longest available data series I could find - 1962 to 2023 (61 years)

House prices rose at a 8.2% CAGR (2.56% real)
CPI rose at 5.5%
Wages rose at 6.6%% (1.04% real)
All from 30 June 1962 to 30 September 2023, per the RBNZ inflation calculator.

Nominal GDP (because house prices are nominal, otherwise you'd need to convert them to real to compare to real GDP)
Rose 8.4% from March 1962 (annual basis) to September 2023 (annual basis). That equates to ~2.74% real)
Source - Stats NZ infoshare for 1962 data, RBNZ for recent data.

Great work Muse, can you adjust to find out the effect of unprecedented multiple to income expansion over the last 20 years?

My guess would be sub 1% real. Yes that expansion has happened but we need to look forward. Also real GDP is lower now.

So 0 to 0.25 real over next 60 years without compression and negative 60 year real return with compression to normal multiple to incomes is possible.

[Daytr]

Ok so you're saying that multiples to income will continue to expand.

As ValueNZ keeps saying....

So how will this happen in practice and to what multiple will we get to?

It's the wording ValueNZ used.
Yes the multiple will increase but at a much slower rate.

I read multiple expansion as, it will go up in multiples I.e as it has done in the past and this I never said.

[Daytr]

Great work Muse, can you adjust to find out the effect of unprecedented multiple to income expansion over the last 20 years?

My guess would be sub 1% real. Yes that expansion has happened but we need to look forward. Also real GDP is lower now.

So 0 to 0.25 real over next 60 years without compression and negative 60 year real return with compression to normal multiple to incomes is possible.

It doesn't include the utility of a house.
It probably also doesn't include changes to taxes, like the introduction of GST etc.

According to Muse's post, since 1962 house inflation has run at over 2.5 times that the rate of wage inflation. And as mentioned this doesn't include the utility of living in or renting out a house which makes that multiple over wages much higher.

[Snoopy]

Something for everyone. Longest available data series I could find - 1962 to 2023 (61 years)

House prices rose at a 8.2% CAGR (2.56% real)
CPI rose at 5.5%
Wages rose at 6.6%% (1.04% real)
All from 30 June 1962 to 30 September 2023, per the RBNZ inflation calculator.

Nominal GDP (because house prices are nominal, otherwise you'd need to convert them to real to compare to real GDP)
Rose 8.4% from March 1962 (annual basis) to September 2023 (annual basis). That equates to ~2.74% real)
Source - Stats NZ infoshare for 1962 data, RBNZ for recent data.


The other thing you might have to factor in is the size and quality of the house you are comparing across the decades. The average house built in 1962 would have been 2-3 bedroom weather board with a tin roof and no insulation on a footprint of 100 square metres. These days you would be looking at a 3-4 bedroom house, built fully insulated and from more permanent materials. Add in a walk in garage as well and the house footprint would have near doubled. So comparing an average house in 1962 with an average house in 2023 is not really an 'apples with apples' comparison.

SNOOPY

[Daytr]

The other thing you might have to factor in is the size and quality of the house you are comparing across the decades. The average house built in 1962 would have been 2-3 bedroom weather board with a tin roof and no insulation on a footprint of 100 square metres. These days you would be looking at a 3-4 bedroom house, built fully insulated and from more permanent materials. Add in a walk in garage as well and the house footprint would have near doubled. So comparing an average house in 1962 with an average house in 2023 is not really an 'apples with apples' comparison.

SNOOPY

Fair point Snoop, but you could say the same of the labour force where it's now far more of a tertiary educated services market than it was in 1962, many of the manual jobs of 1962 have now been mechanised.

Side note: They were probably built better in 1962. I would like to see what many houses even built now or the late 90s early 2000s will look like in a few decades.

[blackcap]

Fair point Snoop, but you could say the same of the labour force where it's now far more of a tertiary educated services market than it was in 1962, many of the manual jobs of 1962 have now been mechanised.

Side note: They were probably built better in 1962. I would like to see what many houses even built now or the late 90s early 2000s will look like in a few decades.

That is an interesting point you make about those built in 1962. I agree. That means our standards have a lot to account for.

[winner69]

That is an interesting point you make about those built in 1962. I agree. That means our standards have a lot to account for.

First state house was built in early 1930’s …..saw it the other day and it still looked pretty solid …and tidy

[Daytr]

I think it's more some of the products we use.
They are certainly better than 20 years ago but it will be interesting if they can stand up to the 50 year test they are approved for under the building code.

[blackcap]

First state house was built in early 1930’s …..saw it the other day and it still looked pretty solid …and tidy

I have lived in a state house in the past. Brick, solid, draughty but that was not an issue. It kept out the mould, and we just put on an extra layer in winter.

Those houses were built well that is for sure, yet these days they would not pass the healthy homes legislation. That is the twisted society we live in.

[kiora]

I have lived in a state house in the past. Brick, solid, draughty but that was not an issue. It kept out the mould, and we just put on an extra layer in winter.

Those houses were built well that is for sure, yet these days they would not pass the healthy homes legislation. That is the twisted society we live in.

Agree

And now 5000?,10,000?
Are standing empty while people live in their cars?

Where is the sense in that?

[JBmurc]

One thing we will see across many nations and I'm sure is happening at present is the "Inheritance wealth gap" If you're in the 40-60 age bracket many Kiwis will have parents coming to the end of their lives passing down substantial Inheritance as they lived through some of the greatest Capital gains in NZ History ( access to great income to home ratio's)

I don't think we will see the same repeated next 40yrs+ ...my kids without our help very unlikely to afford #rent and #save enough to be FHB of properties in are area 10-20x average incomes...

what we saw in the past large families going forward to present small families ... so Inheritance is much more concentrated .. I come from a family of 3x kids my parents 9x + 5x

we have 2x children ....some of the richest seem to have the smallest families and the poorest the largest !!

My wife and I are likely to inherit substantial Inheritance over the next 20yrs

But many will not ...

then as we know my children will have that wealth passed down along with are own and only split 2x ways

As we know assets are the reason why the rich-to-poor gap continues to widen as every decade inflation lifts those values along with living costs..

when you think about it we are seeing this cycle returning to the times of very different classes of living .. not that the poor/peasant can't rise to wealth/ruling classes just that road is so much harder if some kids have a massive leg up when starting life in the workforce..all because of the last 40-50yrs of major inflation in assets ..

Of course this has always been happening ..but I think next 20yrs it will be more profound than the last many decades

[Daytr]

One thing we will see across many nations and I'm sure is happening at present is the "Inheritance wealth gap" If you're in the 40-60 age bracket many Kiwis will have parents coming to the end of their lives passing down substantial Inheritance as they lived through some of the greatest Capital gains in NZ History ( access to great income to home ratio's)

I don't think we will see the same repeated next 40yrs+ ...my kids without our help very unlikely to afford #rent and #save enough to be FHB of properties in are area 10-20x average incomes...

what we saw in the past large families going forward to present small families ... so Inheritance is much more concentrated .. I come from a family of 3x kids my parents 9x + 5x

we have 2x children ....some of the richest seem to have the smallest families and the poorest the largest !!

My wife and I are likely to inherit substantial Inheritance over the next 20yrs

But many will not ...

then as we know my children will have that wealth passed down along with are own and only split 2x ways

As we know assets are the reason why the rich-to-poor gap continues to widen as every decade inflation lifts those values along with living costs..

when you think about it we are seeing this cycle returning to the times of very different classes of living .. not that the poor/peasant can't rise to wealth/ruling classes just that road is so much harder if some kids have a massive leg up when starting life in the workforce..all because of the last 40-50yrs of major inflation in assets ..

Of course this has always been happening ..but I think next 20yrs it will be more profound than the last many decades

Yeah I'm screwed having 7 siblings. 🤣

[JBmurc]

Yeah I'm screwed having 7 siblings. ��

Yeah ..not that common these days ..well not that I know of.. I know more people with 1x child only Vs 4+

[JBmurc]

Nvidia's market cap is now over $100 billion higher than all of the companies in the S&P 500 energy sector ... combined.

[ValueNZ]

Nvidia has a market cap of 1.7t... What the actual f&#*

[JBmurc]

Nvidia has a market cap of 1.7t... What the actual f&#*

yes ...just about finished watching this clip >Robert Prechter TECH analyst>potential crash APL24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKv0gqXc5_M&t=2023s

[Daytr]

Nvidia has a market cap of 1.7t... What the actual f&#*

Yep but it's PE is only 90, if it's earnings & margin growth can be maintained which might or might not be a stretch, it still might be cheap.
Lots of ifs & buts, we will find out more in a few weeks.

[causecelebre]

As long as it keeps going up I’ll keep holding. Simples. Yes, I have an exit strategy. No need to over analyse and complicate this

[ynot]

Yep but it's PE is only 90, if it's earnings & margin growth can be maintained which might or might not be a stretch, it still might be cheap.
Lots of ifs & buts, we will find out more in a few weeks.

Probably a better chance that bitcon anyway which is trading at a multiple of 7 million.

[ValueNZ]

As long as it keeps going up I’ll keep holding. Simples. Yes, I have an exit strategy. No need to over analyse and complicate this
What an infallible strategy.

[SailorRob]

The other thing you might have to factor in is the size and quality of the house you are comparing across the decades. The average house built in 1962 would have been 2-3 bedroom weather board with a tin roof and no insulation on a footprint of 100 square metres. These days you would be looking at a 3-4 bedroom house, built fully insulated and from more permanent materials. Add in a walk in garage as well and the house footprint would have near doubled. So comparing an average house in 1962 with an average house in 2023 is not really an 'apples with apples' comparison.

SNOOPY


This is a great point.

A LOT of the 2% real return is in fact just all the fancy new stuff getting capitalised.

Find a 1962 house in the provinces that has been maintained but not improved and compare that CAGR against the average (which includes all the 280 square meter houses with bells and whistles)

The 'growth' is all from injections of cash

[SailorRob]

Yep but it's PE is only 90, if it's earnings & margin growth can be maintained which might or might not be a stretch, it still might be cheap.
Lots of ifs & buts, we will find out more in a few weeks.


Umm in few weeks? We can then know what the earnings will be over the next 25 years?

[SailorRob]

As long as it keeps going up I’ll keep holding. Simples. Yes, I have an exit strategy. No need to over analyse and complicate this


Oh man, this sounds like a very solid plan. Bound to end well. Also sounds very easy.

Win

Win

Win

Why did I never think of this before?

As long as anything keeps going up just hold it.

[Bobdn]

Eli Lilly earnings soon, it's the new NVIDIA. It's 0.55 per cent of my shares so I won't be waiting up for it.

[bull....]

Oh man, this sounds like a very solid plan. Bound to end well. Also sounds very easy.

Win

Win

Win

Why did I never think of this before?

As long as anything keeps going up just hold it.

cause your an imbecile that's why. only an imbecile wishes stock prices to go down.

go nvidia ..... to the moon lol

In fact meta , nvidia , microsoft and amazon account for most of the sp500 gains this yr so guess mag 7 in some shape is still performing overall.
This is value investing folks being able to pick the winners

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jobs-preview-what-to-expect-from-todays-unemployment-data/3275AVL4EJAELNIJSCWWYSV26Q/

I think this board is for NZX ...it wud be better if MOST of the discussion is about NZX

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jobs-preview-what-to-expect-from-todays-unemployment-data/3275AVL4EJAELNIJSCWWYSV26Q/

I think this board is for NZX ...it wud be better if MOST of the discussion is about NZX

yea nzx leads the world in black monday events that cause all stock markets too fall lol as does talking about nz property on the thread lol .

should be talking about how another regional bank in the US is on the verge of collapse instead

[ValueNZ]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jobs-preview-what-to-expect-from-todays-unemployment-data/3275AVL4EJAELNIJSCWWYSV26Q/

I think this board is for NZX ...it wud be better if MOST of the discussion is about NZX
Let's stay on topic here alokdhir, this thread is about black monday in 2015.

[winner69]

Let's stay on topic here alokdhir, this thread is about black monday in 2015.

Black Monday was in 1987 ….punters hereexpected another one in 2015 but it never eventuated

[ValueNZ]

Black Monday was in 1987 ….punters hereexpected another one in 2015 but it never eventuated
I think it's a term that is applied to a few dates, August 24th 2015 being one of them.

[winner69]

KFL share price was $1.35 with NAV of $1.33 when this thread started in 2015

Not much happened in that time …except Carmel has left and no doubt Fund Managers been exceptionally well rewarded for not doing too much

[winner69]

I think it's a term that is applied to a few dates, August 24th 2015 being one of them.

The good old Flash Crash eh

[JBmurc]

I think it's a term that is applied to a few dates, August 24th 2015 being one of them.

Could be coming APL 2024 !!

[ValueNZ]

Could be coming APL 2024 !!
Lets hope for a long deep recession, 1929 style where stocks go on discount 90%.

[Daytr]

Umm in few weeks? We can then know what the earnings will be over the next 25 years?

Another ridiculous extrapolation from SailorBoy.
If q4 earnings increase as they did in q3 what will the PE be then?

[Daytr]

This is a great point.

A LOT of the 2% real return is in fact just all the fancy new stuff getting capitalised.

Find a 1962 house in the provinces that has been maintained but not improved and compare that CAGR against the average (which includes all the 280 square meter houses with bells and whistles)

The 'growth' is all from injections of cash

Buy a dog of a stock in 1962 & it probably doesn't exist anymore....

[Bobdn]

Just on "Black Monday", not everyone will know that Monday is statistically the worst day for markets with Friday being the best. Calender patterns is a fun chapter in Jeremy Siegel's "Stocks for the Long Run". Worst Month: September.

Ive almost finished my second listen through. It won't be my last.

My dividend funds are slowly picking up steam: vym and vymi. When tech takes a dump, who knows money might go into boring old dividend payers.

My NZ dividend payers are rancid however.

[causecelebre]

Lets hope for a long deep recession, 1929 style where stocks go on discount 90%.

Really? Perhaps you sure learn about the effect of the depression on real peoples lives.

[ValueNZ]

Really? Perhaps you sure learn about the effect of the depression on real peoples lives.
Tragic how the FED caused so much harm to society. Still doesn't change the fact if you were smart enough you would be accumulating shares during that time period.

[causecelebre]

Tragic how the FED caused so much harm to society. Still doesn't change the fact if you were smart enough you would be accumulating shares during that time period.

You are an idiot hoping for another depression. '29 lasted 10 years, steep declines in productivity (47% reduction, GDP declined by 30%), mass unemployment and banking panics and greatly contributed to the onset of a world war

FYI I am always buying. US stock market is up year on year 70% of the time. I'll take those odds

[bull....]

Lets hope for a long deep recession, 1929 style where stocks go on discount 90%.

silly comment , as you say you are a value investor who is invested all the time . therefore you would most likely have been wiped out with no spare cash to invest.

[Bobdn]

@Causecelebre - '29 was a 25 year bear market. 17 years if you throw in all dividends in a total return sense. I'm editing this because I see now you were talking about the depression length.

1929, the worst period economically, was not not the worst period for investors: That was 1966 to the mid 1970s. That was the big one with the two monster crashes in 1929 and early 1930s being number 2 and 3 on the list.

How? There was massive price deflation in the depression so yes stocks went down 89 per cent but prices crashed remarkably hard as well. So what little you had after selling RCA went a lot further. In the 1970s shares crashed and prices increased dramatically. Not good for someone like me. The worst year to retire since 1880? 1966.

All covered in Jeremy Siegel's "Stocks for the Long Run" and William (Bill) Bengen's four percent rule research.

[thedrunkfish]

Be careful what you wish for, there would be major social and other consequences if that were to happen.

[Panda-NZ-]

You are an idiot hoping for another depression. '29 lasted 10 years, steep declines in productivity (47% reduction, GDP declined by 30%), mass unemployment and banking panics and greatly contributed to the onset of a world war


Imagine what it will be this time... given we already have issues (in geopolitics and the climate) when it's a golden age of low unemployment and the stock market.

WW2/GD may become the new "good old days.

[causecelebre]

@Causecelebre - '29 was a 25 year bear market. 17 years if you throw in all dividends in a total return sense. I'm editing this because I see now you were talking about the depression length.

1929, the worst period economically, was not not the worst period for investors: That was 1966 to the mid 1970s. That was the big one with the two monster crashes in 1929 and early 1930s being number 2 and 3 on the list.

How? There was massive price deflation in the depression so yes stocks went down 89 per cent but prices crashed remarkably hard as well. So what little you had after selling RCA went a lot further. In the 1970s shares crashed and prices increased dramatically. Not good for someone like me. The worst year to retire since 1880? 1966.

All covered in Jeremy Siegel's "Stocks for the Long Run" and William (Bill) Bengen's four percent rule research.

Thanks for the clarity. I was referring to the depression which is generally considered to have begun with the stock market crash in '29 until the beginning of WW2 for the US in '41. I agree though with your market view. From the '29 highs of the DOW it didn't get its next ATH until '54. Stocks for the long run is next on my list

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.mariontoday.org/stock-market-crash/

Causes of Stock Market Crashes

"Stock market crashes are often the result of a complex mix of factors. One primary cause is economic imbalances, such as excessive debt, inflation, or asset bubbles. For instance, the 2008 Financial Crisis was partly due to a housing bubble burst, where real estate prices were inflated beyond sustainable levels.

Panic selling is another critical factor, where investors sell off their holdings en masse, often irrationally, leading to a sharp market decline. This was evident during the 1929 crash, where fear led to widespread selling.

Speculative bubbles, fueled by irrational exuberance and overinvestment in certain sectors, can also lead to crashes. The dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s is a classic example, where excessive speculation in internet-based companies led to a market collapse.

External shocks, such as political instability, natural disasters, or major geopolitical events, can also trigger crashes by creating uncertainty and negatively impacting investor confidence.

"Understanding stock market crashes is crucial for navigating the complexities of investing and economic dynamics. By learning from past crashes and adapting to new challenges, investors, regulators, and the public can foster a more resilient and informed approach to managing financial risks and opportunities."

[ValueNZ]

silly comment , as you say you are a value investor who is invested all the time . therefore you would most likely have been wiped out with no spare cash to invest.
Bull I use no leverage. Tell me how I would get wiped out?

[Baa_Baa]

Bull I use no leverage. Tell me how I would get wiped out?

You don't need bull**** to tell you that you would be wiped out by capitulating into a share price that smashed your buy price. That would be madness unless you absolutely needed the return on your sell price, to cover some unfortunate event (forced seller).

It's not leverage that will wipe you out, it's company failure or some unfortunate life event that forced you to sell at far below the value of your investment.

That said, most companies are offered at around 50-70% leverage by the brokers (margin lending), so it's a convenient way to up the stakes if you think you can cover the debt

[bull....]

Bull I use no leverage. Tell me how I would get wiped out?

i assumed you would have lost your job , had to sell your stocks which had most probably lost much of there value to survive like so many had too


anyway lets give an example of why i believe having some cash in a portfolio is important

lets assume you had kept your job
from what you have said on the forum that i can remember
you like to be fully invested at all times , you are a value investor , staying in markets at all time is the way to go , hold no cash as part of a portfolio as its a drag on returns long term.

wheres your cash come from to take advantage of the bargains ? as you hold no cash position in your portfolio

on the hand an investor who held some cash in there portfolio at all times would have actually increased the value of that cash holding. ( cash is a drag normally but in a crash it is the reverse )

anyway to cut it short by having some cash in a portfolio available at all times to take advantage of opportunities if they arise will lead to out - performance in the long run over the person who remains fully invested at all times with no cash holding. simple maths

[causecelebre]

Come on S&P500 you can do it.....let see a close above 5000....so close

[bull....]

nvidia just crossed $700

[ValueNZ]

nvidia just crossed $700
I suspect anyone shorting nvidia at these prices will make a very healthy return over the next couple years.

[bull....]

I suspect anyone shorting nvidia at these prices will make a very healthy return over the next couple years.

if your confident , always ways to place that bet.
anyway in my book no stock is a hold for ever

[kiora]

i assumed you would have lost your job , had to sell your stocks which had most probably lost much of there value to survive like so many had too


anyway lets give an example of why i believe having some cash in a portfolio is important

lets assume you had kept your job
from what you have said on the forum that i can remember
you like to be fully invested at all times , you are a value investor , staying in markets at all time is the way to go , hold no cash as part of a portfolio as its a drag on returns long term.

wheres your cash come from to take advantage of the bargains ? as you hold no cash position in your portfolio

on the hand an investor who held some cash in there portfolio at all times would have actually increased the value of that cash holding. ( cash is a drag normally but in a crash it is the reverse )

anyway to cut it short by having some cash in a portfolio available at all times to take advantage of opportunities if they arise will lead to out - performance in the long run over the person who remains fully invested at all times with no cash holding. simple maths

Undrawn revolving credit facility secured over property only costs 0.5% so little drag on returns if <10% of portfolio
Worth having the facility on the ready

[thegreatestben]

Undrawn revolving credit facility secured over property only costs 0.5% so little drag on returns if <10% of portfolio
Worth having the facility on the ready

Worked like a charm for me in covid crash.

[Leemsip]

I do this as well. Hard to stop myself splashing it into the market though.

[winner69]

Come on S&P500 you can do it.....let see a close above 5000....so close

Punters are waiting for NVDA 5,000

[ValueNZ]

SailorRob banned once again

[causecelebre]

Punters are waiting for NVDA 5,000

Well it closed at $700.99 up another 2.75% and at another ATH so getting there....slowly. Its the little stock that could

[Daytr]

SailorRob banned once again

What did your mentor do this time?

[ValueNZ]

What did your mentor do this time?

No reason was given apparently.

[Daytr]

Pretty obvious I would have thought.
Disparaging posters that disagree with him.
More time to refit the boat for SailorBoy.

[bull....]

Undrawn revolving credit facility secured over property only costs 0.5% so little drag on returns if <10% of portfolio
Worth having the facility on the ready

yes. use the same. has worked out well in the past

[winner69]

OMG …. ANZ now predicts a 25 basis point hike in both February and April, which would take the rate to 6%.

Wonder what their agenda is?

[bull....]

OMG …. ANZ now predicts a 25 basis point hike in both February and April, which would take the rate to 6%.

Wonder what their agenda is?

were not you and I saying 6% last yr. anyway if RBNZ go like that probably get there big recession in NZ

[winner69]

were not you and I saying 6% last yr. anyway if RBNZ go like that probably get there big recession in NZ

Nobody agreed with us though eh bull.

I’d say most are still assuming a couple of cuts coming up soon

[bull....]

Nobody agreed with us though eh bull.

I’d say most are still assuming a couple of cuts coming up soon

im hoping we are proved wrong.

[alokdhir]

Nobody agreed with us though eh bull.

I’d say most are still assuming a couple of cuts coming up soon

Why. then HGH doing this? Desperation for business or they know better then U and Bull ...lol

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/126269/heartland-bank-slices-its-fixed-home-loan-rates-big-cuts-all-terms-opening

[alokdhir]

Nobody agreed with us though eh bull.

I’d say most are still assuming a couple of cuts coming up soon

U and Bull were in unison in predicting S&P will reach 2800 or was it 2400 ?? :p

[winner69]

U and Bull were in unison in predicting S&P will reach 2800 or was it 2400 ?? :p

Should always listen to you mate ….always reasoned and mostly correct

[bull....]

U and Bull were in unison in predicting S&P will reach 2800 or was it 2400 ?? :p

lol. must have been a typo probably meant 5800 lol

[alokdhir]

lol. must have been a typo probably meant 5800 lol

No it wasn't ...at that. time U were very bearish ...was thinking of 2800 after. the break 3500 ...but rest is history ...but W69 was with u there also ...lol

[bull....]

No it wasn't ...at that. time U were very bearish ...was thinking of 2800 after. the break 3500 ...but rest is history ...but W69 was with u there also ...lol

oh well being a trader im allowed to change my mind as often as i like lol

anyway here's the putin interview might help with your macro

https://tuckercarlson.com/

[alokdhir]

oh well being a trader im allowed to change my mind as often as i like lol

Of course mate ...I am not objecting to u. changing track ...I am highlighting for fun that even then W69 was on your page ...which is funny ...maybe he is also a trader ...no one knows ...as he is. very secretive about his investments and methods

[bull....]

Of course mate ...I am not objecting to u. changing track ...I am highlighting for fun that even then W69 was on your page ...which is funny ...maybe he is also a trader ...no one knows ...as he is. very secretive about his investments and methods

kfl doing well sold out to soon i thought wall st rally would have finished by now. must adjust the crystal ball

[Bobdn]

If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends will that be bullish? Inflation could dip further. No idea. Just spitballing on a Friday afternoon.

Interesting interview with Tucker Carlson and Putin.

https://youtu.be/fOCWBhuDdDo?si=qadnsP4xZnNSBk7F

[alokdhir]

Should always listen to you mate ….always reasoned and mostly correct

I missed your encouraging post ...why I keep thinking u r just pulling my leg ...lol

Still thanks :t_up:

[bull....]

sp500 at new highs as is nvidia

[Daytr]

Undrawn revolving credit facility secured over property only costs 0.5% so little drag on returns if <10% of portfolio
Worth having the facility on the ready

Out of interest so you pay half a percent for the facility so on $100K, $500 p.a for the facility.
What rate do you pay when you draw down?
Just the bank's current floating rate?

[thegreatestben]

I think anz were only charging a flat monthly fee of $12 for the facility for me. Yes current floating interest rate at the time which is a lot higher today!

[Daytr]

I think anz were only charging a flat monthly fee of $12 for the facility for me. Yes current floating interest rate at the time which is a lot higher today!

Thanks for that

[ValueNZ]

Hey can anyone confirm I am correct in my thinking about ASB's margin lending.

I see that there is a nominee fee of $125 every 6 months that is waived if you accrue interest of $400 in the previous 6 month period. So in order to have that nominee fee waived I would need to borrow a minimum of $8,556.15 if the interest rate is 9.35%?

If I instead borrowed say $4000 I would be charged $624 (4000*0.0935+250) yearly, which like is borrowing at 15.6% p.a.

So basically there is no point of borrowing unless you are having that fee waived.

[allfromacell]

sp500 at new highs as is nvidia

Sam Altman looking to raise as much as $7T to compete with Nvidia...

Perhaps not as overvalued as the financial purist thinks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/09/openai-ceo-sam-altman-reportedly-seeking-trillions-of-dollars-for-ai-chip-project.html

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3yRbLrsRl0

[Valuegrowth]

I expect the unexpected. Now ANZ Chief Economist Sharon Sollner says if we want to avoid interest rate hikes, inflation needs to drop soon. I quite agree with her. Stock market indexes are hitting all time high. Prices of all types of communication and tech products and services have skyrocketed. Rents are so high. Food and health care cost are also the same. With red sea attack, cost of doing business will go up further. Only deflation can send inflation down. My question is why did they fail to control inflation yet despite raising interest rates worldwide over the last 2 years?

Now ANZ is forecasting two more hikes in February and April. The first cut is expecting in February 2025. It looks like Fed is also expected to hold interest rates steady in April and cut later.

[alokdhir]

Hey can anyone confirm I am correct in my thinking about ASB's margin lending.

I see that there is a nominee fee of $125 every 6 months that is waived if you accrue interest of $400 in the previous 6 month period. So in order to have that nominee fee waived I would need to borrow a minimum of $8,556.15 if the interest rate is 9.35%?

If I instead borrowed say $4000 I would be charged $624 (4000*0.0935+250) yearly, which like is borrowing at 15.6% p.a.

So basically there is no point of borrowing unless you are having that fee waived.

Your understanding of how it will be charged is correct based on your level of borrowings ...why they have set it up like this maybe they don't want to encourage small accounts . Also they provide special interest rates too if borrowings are more then $ 1 million or so

[dabsman]

Your understanding of how it will be charged is correct based on your level of borrowings ...why they have set it up like this maybe they don't want to encourage small accounts . Also they provide special interest rates too if borrowings are more then $ 1 million or so

It's a st*t load of paperwork for an 8k borrow. Bang that on a low interest visa or your current credir card and then do a balance transfer. Don't waste your time on a margin account unless you want to borrow 100k plus I'd say

[ValueNZ]

It's a st*t load of paperwork for an 8k borrow. Bang that on a low interest visa or your current credir card and then do a balance transfer. Don't waste your time on a margin account unless you want to borrow 100k plus I'd say
No way I can make money paying credit card interest rates... Even borrowing at 9.35% is expensive.

I have no clue if ASB would even give an 18 year old with no job currently 9k of credit. Should have more than enough collateral though.

[Valuegrowth]

Nasdaq on fire. Thanks to few tech stocks, very soon new all time high could hit. Will there be opporunities in short selling and Inverse ETFs next?

[winner69]

Big increase in early retirements in the USA over last year

Some say the stock market ripped so hard that people are retiring.

[alokdhir]

Big increase in early retirements in the USA over last year

Some say the stock market ripped so hard that people are retiring.

Our Bull will also retire soon ...he waiting for Nvidia to reach USD 1000 ...the way its going ...maybe by April

AI is a real thing and its applications are almost endless ...so I think its not a bubble but just over exuberance ...which will get normalised by either time or even better performances ...both possible .

Nvidia's market cap more then whole Chinese stock market was a latest fun fact disclosed :t_up:

[winner69]

Our Bull will also retire soon ...he waiting for Nvidia to reach USD 1000 ...the way its going ...maybe by April

AI is a real thing and its applications are almost endless ...so I think its not a bubble but just over exuberance ...which will get normalised by either time or even better performances ...both possible .

Nvidia's market cap more than whole Chinese stock market was a latest fun fact disclosed :t_up:

.. $NVDA ‘s market cap is now over $200 billion higher than all of the companies in the S&P 500 Energy sector combined!!!

The total net income of the Energy sector is $147 billion while its $19 billion for Nvidia.

Another fun fact

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZdsVXRfvOs

[Valuegrowth]

https://hedgefollow.com/largest-insider-sells.php

[Baa_Baa]

https://hedgefollow.com/largest-insider-sells.php

Eventually, it will blow up like every other over-expansion has, but in the meantime savvy investors are making a killing and they will probably be quick to get out and save their profits, unlike those who stand on the sidelines in awe of the outrageous gains that they had no idea of how to get into, or when, let alone how to get out of, or when, with a profit, or worse the followers of these talking heads who buy hold and get their capital crucified when it turns to custard, which it will.

You don't need these people to tell you how or when to invest your money, they're all shills for whatever they're promoting. Just follow the money, get in when it's right, get out when it's right, ignore the shills, they just f*ck your head up, best ignored.

[bull....]

market doing well again , nvidia 745

[alokdhir]

Total Market Cap / GDP ratio is considered to be a good guide about the depth , participation and vibrancy of any country's financial health ...but it also indicates over exuberance levels too

USA ratio is almost 2 while NZ its 0.5 ...China = 0.65 ...India = 1.3 ....OZ = 1.15

[bull....]

market doing well again , nvidia 745

looks like profit taking setting in, over brought i guess. bitcoin going gangbusters from them etf flows ?

[causecelebre]

looks like profit taking setting in, over brought i guess. bitcoin going gangbusters from them etf flows ?

For a time NVDA had a market cap higher than Amazon. I took a little off the top at the close on Friday as I’m want to do.

I think there’s a ramp up to the halving now though I wonder if the ETF’s were trying to get a better entry after the sell the news pull back. Regardless bitcoin has been on a tear for the last year. My bitcoin entry has been before my NVDA and is why I, rightly or wrongly, bought into Nvidia in the first place :)

[Filthy]

SML, RBD, FBU, SKC, WHS... plus probably a few more to add to the list (CVT? RYM?) - some great NZ companies which are just getting destroyed by poor leadership.... puts into question if we have enough senior business talent here eh?

[clip]

looks like profit taking setting in, over brought i guess. bitcoin going gangbusters from them etf flows ?

bitcoin only just getting started for the year. yes ETF flows will bring money in, also next bitcoin halving is in 62days.. see price action after the previous 3 halvings, we are at the early stages of the next bull cycle for crypto
https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/

[Joshuatree]

Total Market Cap / GDP ratio is considered to be a good guide about the depth , participation and vibrancy of any country's financial health ...but it also indicates over exuberance levels too

USA ratio is almost 2 while NZ its 0.5 ...China = 0.65 ...India = 1.3 ....OZ = 1.15

"If the ratio falls between 0.75 to 0.9, or 75% to 90%, it is said to be modestly valued or valued fairly. Lastly, if the ratio falls within the range of 0.9 to 1.15, or 90% to 115%, it is considered to be a modest overvaluation of the market."

[Panda-NZ-]

SML, RBD, FBU, SKC, WHS... plus probably a few more to add to the list (CVT? RYM?) - some great NZ companies which are just getting destroyed by poor leadership.... puts into question if we have enough senior business talent here eh?

Further proof we need to consider statehood with Australia.

Yes I recognise the fletch ceo is an aussie but he did inherit bad legacy management from us kiwis (see rym, rbd etc).

[Filthy]

Yes I recognise the fletch ceo is an aussie but he did inherit bad legacy management from us kiwis (see rym, rbd etc).

yep, think it all extends to the next tier down as well; not just CEOs CFOs, CIOs etc, but GMs, business unit leaders etc. Just not good enough. How many of our listed companies end up needing 'strategic reviews' by external consultants?

[Valuegrowth]

Eventually, it will blow up like every other over-expansion has, but in the meantime savvy investors are making a killing and they will probably be quick to get out and save their profits, unlike those who stand on the sidelines in awe of the outrageous gains that they had no idea of how to get into, or when, let alone how to get out of, or when, with a profit, or worse the followers of these talking heads who buy hold and get their capital crucified when it turns to custard, which it will.

You don't need these people to tell you how or when to invest your money, they're all shills for whatever they're promoting. Just follow the money, get in when it's right, get out when it's right, ignore the shills, they just f*ck your head up, best ignored.Always good advice. Thanks. I agree savvy investors and smart traders are good in selling too. At times staying in stock market can be very scary. Still, I can remember how I escaped. I was very bad in selling but now I can take selling decisions according to the situation. I thought investment means buying only. Now I think selling also should be in our investment process.

[bull....]

profit taking in markets today

Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won’t go away
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.html

[LEMON]

“It's a great business to be in, central banking, where you print money and people believe it.”

- Adrian Orr
New Zealand Central Bank

[winner69]

profit taking in markets today

Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won’t go away
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.html

Does profit taking add even more trillions to pile of cash sitting on the sidelines?

[bull....]

Does profit taking add even more trillions to pile of cash sitting on the sidelines?

lol.
add's to the profits of the fish n chip shop

[winner69]

All ok on inflation front in NZ ….reported that the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) will be heartened by new survey results that show business leaders and professional forecasters continue to see inflation tracking down

Business leaders and professional forecasters always get it right

[alokdhir]

Bit of over exuberance getting smashed by REAL data ...6 rate cuts expectations was way over the top ...they should be happy to get even 3 ...base case of most

But USA markets believe in everything BIG ...big up then big down ...so keeps traders happy ...Bull loves it ....he plays both sides of the record ...actually both sides can be enjoyable and have different feel :p

[Daytr]

I think there is an argument for the US not to lower rates at all. Share markets are on a tear, US economy seems to be holding up well & meanwhile the Fed continues their tapering cycle.

One of the big issues if they don't is it makes US debt more expensive which is not great for US sovereign debt levels.

Just sayin ....

[bull....]

bitcoin only just getting started for the year. yes ETF flows will bring money in, also next bitcoin halving is in 62days.. see price action after the previous 3 halvings, we are at the early stages of the next bull cycle for crypto
https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/

halving just at a time of more demand anyway see today' jump in bitcoin market cap makes it even bigger than berkshire today.
that says something doesnt it more people believe in bitcoin than berkshire

[winner69]

Interesting. Remember Cisco?

[causecelebre]

halving just at a time of more demand anyway see today' jump in bitcoin market cap makes it even bigger than berkshire today.
that says something doesnt it more people believe in bitcoin than berkshire


Ohh controversial ;) NVDA is in an interesting place right now. Retail options traders seemingly are having their puts picked off by the algo's. Try your fundamental analysis on that then

[JBmurc]

Interesting. Remember Cisco?

BEWARE: The Coming, Huge AI Stock Crash.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzgXb6c7QIk&t=1153s

[bull....]

Ohh controversial ;) NVDA is in an interesting place right now. Retail options traders seemingly are having their puts picked off by the algo's. Try your fundamental analysis on that then

lot of analyst's last week upgraded nvidia to over $800 , anyway earnings next week be a massive day for all the option people

[Valuegrowth]

Dangerous': ASB boss warns homeowners to prepare for all scenarios on interest rates

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/dangerous-asb-boss-warns-homeowners-to-prepare-for-all-scenarios-on-interest-rates/ar-BB1ilwjx

[Daytr]

Dangerous': ASB boss warns homeowners to prepare for all scenarios on interest rates

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/dangerous-asb-boss-warns-homeowners-to-prepare-for-all-scenarios-on-interest-rates/ar-BB1ilwjx

Not what I interpreted from Adrian Orr's recent speech. Steady as she goes. Cuts might be deferred a little, but he will be aware of Government cuts to spending will assist the fight against inflation.

[bull....]

Not what I interpreted from Adrian Orr's recent speech. Steady as she goes. Cuts might be deferred a little, but he will be aware of Government cuts to spending will assist the fight against inflation.

yep an luxon just signaled today a budget of austerity

Luxon said the state of the nation was “fragile”, and pointed the finger at Labour and its record in Government. Luxon warned he would be making tough and uncomfortable decisions to cut back on the level of spending, signalling a much tougher budget round than people are used to

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-christopher-luxon-on-state-of-the-nation-as-government-considers-tightening-migration-settings/6NG36TUM7VHOXOYSDC72F7A52I/

add in the changes to immigration soon , that is less people with no skill's being allowed in who in a downturn will become a welfare cost and the potential rate rise by ORR and it could become a very tough year ahead.

[Rawz]

Less government spending will help kill inflation

[alokdhir]

Less government spending will help kill inflation

It will also promote more unemployment and lower GDP ie recession ...precursors of Inflation control. If in NZ there is no soft landing possible speaks volumes about our everything Binge attitude ...only way to control US is to take the thing away ...we cant control ourselves ...easy to see everywhere ...lol

[alokdhir]

How many falling knifes to catch on NZX ...HGH / FBU / RYM etc ...big names poor results ...ATM giving hope to all these fallen angels that they can also do it in good time so lots of value on offer ...where are value buyers ??

[Rawz]

How many falling knifes to catch on NZX ...HGH / FBU / RYM etc ...big names poor results ...ATM giving hope to all these fallen angels that they can also do it in good time so lots of value on offer ...where are value buyers ??

Value buyers all secretly buying TWR

[alokdhir]

Value buyers all secretly buying TWR

Not too far back TWR was also on sale I remember ...Bull liked it for income

But good times of an insurer of TWR quality is only one cyclone away from trouble ...they have jacked up car insurance costs so much in AKL that many will skip it

[Rawz]

Not too far back TWR was also on sale I remember ...Bull liked it for income

But good times of an insurer of TWR quality is only one cyclone away from trouble ...they have jacked up car insurance costs so much in AKL that many will skip it

Bull was buying up around 76cents space. Rawz buy 59cents

[alokdhir]

Bull was buying up around 76cents space. Rawz buy 59cents

I will let Bull answer that ...but if my memory is still good then he was also buying sub 60 cents

[Rawz]

I will let Bull answer that ...but if my memory is still good then he was also buying sub 60 cents

oh okay he did well then

[bull....]

Bull was buying up around 76cents space. Rawz buy 59cents

no i brought just above 60c and last yr they paid 4cps which i think was 7% yield if they do the same this yr that be about the same so yes tell alok good income stock at this time

[Valuegrowth]

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/mortgage-rates-hit-2-month-203650193.html

[Filthy]

A2 aside, start of reporting season so far, has been very mediocre. either companies are under-performing, or the market is still pricing too high vs the current economic climate; both macro and micro pressures on NZ businesses much bigger than anticipated?

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-t5J94fT2c

[kiora]

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/easy-money
"The upshot of my sea change thesis is simple:

The period from 1980 through 2021 was generally one of declining and/or ultra-low interest rates.

This had profound ramifications in many areas, including determining which investment strategies would be the winners and losers.

That changed in 2022, when the Fed was forced to begin raising interest rates to combat inflation.

We’re unlikely to go back to such easy money conditions, other than temporarily in response to recessions.

Therefore, the investment environment in the coming years will feature higher interest rates than those we saw in 2009-21. Different strategies will outperform in the period ahead, and thus a different asset allocation is called for.


Bullet points one through three above are statements of fact and not controvertible. Consequently, the conclusion – number five – depends exclusively on whether number four is correct. The question is simple: do you agree with it or don’t you? If you agree, we have a host of solutions to propose."

[Daytr]

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/easy-money
"The upshot of my sea change thesis is simple:

The period from 1980 through 2021 was generally one of declining and/or ultra-low interest rates.

This had profound ramifications in many areas, including determining which investment strategies would be the winners and losers.

That changed in 2022, when the Fed was forced to begin raising interest rates to combat inflation.

We’re unlikely to go back to such easy money conditions, other than temporarily in response to recessions.

Therefore, the investment environment in the coming years will feature higher interest rates than those we saw in 2009-21. Different strategies will outperform in the period ahead, and thus a different asset allocation is called for.


Bullet points one through three above are statements of fact and not controvertible. Consequently, the conclusion – number five – depends exclusively on whether number four is correct. The question is simple: do you agree with it or don’t you? If you agree, we have a host of solutions to propose."

No firm view on that. Sovereign debt imo is the next major issue to be addressed.
Japan has excessive debt and an aging & declining population.
China also has a similar problem and is not as solvable as Japan. Japan can open the floodgates to immigration whereas China is just so large and is likely only to lose more people than it gains.

US Government debt is also becoming a problem, particularly if interest rates remain high.
So at some point either taxes in the US need to rise or interest rates need to return to a level where the debt is serviceable.

[bull....]

big day wall st tomorrow morning.... nvidia massive . options pricing a 10% swing eithier way no wonder some people baled ahead of it

[Valuegrowth]

No firm view on that. Sovereign debt imo is the next major issue to be addressed.
Japan has excessive debt and an aging & declining population.
China also has a similar problem and is not as solvable as Japan. Japan can open the floodgates to immigration whereas China is just so large and is likely only to lose more people than it gains.

US Government debt is also becoming a problem, particularly if interest rates remain high.
So at some point either taxes in the US need to rise or interest rates need to return to a level where the debt is serviceable.

Two things which brought calamities to the financial system, asset markets and to the world economy :

Debt and Easy money.

History is repeating time to time in a different manner. I periodically do my rebalancing to face for those types of calamities. Some assets and stocks are in bubble territory now.