Black Monday

[Valuegrowth]

would love to know what stocks you do hold VG ?

Hi JB

I am mainly into cash rich, low-debt or zero debt food companies. I read hot commodities written by Jim Rodgers and got interest on Agri commodities and food stocks.

[SailorRob]

Hi JB

I am mainly into cash rich, low-debt or zero debt food companies. I read hot commodities written by Jim Rodgers and got interest on Agri commodities and food stocks.


Interesting as the companies that you highlighted a couple of days ago;

One, ISNPY, a convoluted Italian financial company that trades over 5 times book and 50 times earnings and hasn't gone anywhere in 15 years, virtually impossible to understand or form an opinion on future earnings.

Two 'shinhan Financial Group' equally compiled but seemingly cheaper financial company out of Korea, that hasn't gone anywhere in 20 years.

Good luck with them but I strongly suggest something a little more simple.

[Valuegrowth]

Interesting as the companies that you highlighted a couple of days ago;

One, ISNPY, a convoluted Italian financial company that trades over 5 times book and 50 times earnings and hasn't gone anywhere in 15 years, virtually impossible to understand or form an opinion on future earnings.

Two 'shinhan Financial Group' equally compiled but seemingly cheaper financial company out of Korea, that hasn't gone anywhere in 20 years.

Good luck with them but I strongly suggest something a little more simple.
Thanks. How about the following 4?

Associated British Food LON: ABF multibagger
Taste Gourmet Group HKG
Food Empire Holdings (FEMP) SGX
Venky's India Poultry a Multibagger

[thedrunkfish]

Interesting as the companies that you highlighted a couple of days ago;

One, ISNPY, a convoluted Italian financial company that trades over 5 times book and 50 times earnings and hasn't gone anywhere in 15 years, virtually impossible to understand or form an opinion on future earnings.



Oh WOW, its the biggest bank in Italy you muppet :D

[mike2020]

I suspect he's aware of that.

[Valuegrowth]

The amount of IMPORT cargo reaching all worldwide ports has been plunging the last few weeks. Currently, import volumes are as low as the COVID shutdowns.

Shipping disruptions one cause ..but could indicate a slowing global economy
There is one bright spot in 2024. That's tourism. I think people will have a rest in 2024 after one of the long bull markets. Fortunately, I have food and tourism related stocks. According to tourism experts, 2024 could be a record year for international arrivals across the globe.

[SailorRob]

Oh WOW, its the biggest bank in Italy you muppet :D


Oh WOW what an absolute Muppet I am!

The fact that this is a large European bank means everything I said is wrong and it will make for an astounding investment.

I just didn't realise and tonight I will fill my boots.

Thanks to your profound wisdom.

[troyvdh]

Dear value.Have you ventured to places in NZ where tourists flock to....What have been your experiences....cheers.

[Valuegrowth]

Dear value.Have you ventured to places in NZ where tourists flock to....What have been your experiences....cheers.
Dear troyvdh

Honestly,I didn’t venture to any places recently. Planning to travel aboard. Cheers.

[Valuegrowth]

Thanks. How about the following 4?

Associated British Food LON: ABF multibagger
Taste Gourmet Group HKG
Food Empire Holdings (FEMP) SGX
Venky's India Poultry a Multibagger

If had invested 20 years back in Venky's India Ltd and Associated British Food by now I would have retired. They are not second to Berkshire Hathaway. Coming population growth will create new leaders in global markets.

[SailorRob]

If had invested 20 years back in Venky's India Ltd and Associated British Food by now I would have retired. They are not second to Berkshire Hathaway. Coming population growth will create new leaders in global markets.


Time for bed Valuegrowth, you can keep entertaining us tomorrow if you must.

[Valuegrowth]

Time for bed Valuegrowth, you can keep entertaining us tomorrow if you must. We have to accept there are companies similar to Berkshire Hathway which create long term shareholder value.

[SailorRob]

We have to accept there are companies similar to Berkshire Hathway which create long term shareholder value.


There are companies far better at creating shareholder value than Berkshire is now.

[JBmurc]

Galiano Gold GAU :TSX has been good for me since early DEC23 I'm up 57.8% with much more to come ... glad I come across them when I did .. might have to go hunting across the TSX for some more bargains

[Valuegrowth]

Galiano Gold GAU :TSX has been good for me since early DEC23 I'm up 57.8% with much more to come ... glad I come across them when I did .. might have to go hunting across the TSX for some more bargins
Those days I avoided tech and commodity stocks as WB didn't like them. Later I found they are almost like any other stock as long as we do our home work and buy them.

[SailorRob]

When is the last time we had a proper recession, when multiple people you know were moping around out of work and really trying to get a job but couldn't?

Would have to be the early 90's wouldn't it? Aside from a few Months around the GFC perhaps.

But really the early 90's was the last time that things were really sluggish and not much work around.

Have we pretty much been in a 30 year economic boom, is this the new normal?

Asking for a friend.

[Valuegrowth]

Lessons I have been learned: accept uncertainty, expect the unexpected and preparing for the worst. I rebalanced my portfolio in advance to face any situation.

[troyvdh]

I understand that there is a saying...If one is making 7 percent compounding pa over a life time you are doing ok.I believe its correct to say most kiwis are great at making dosh...BUT cannot keep it.
There is a huge difference between money and wealth.

[JBmurc]

When is the last time we had a proper recession, when multiple people you know were moping around out of work and really trying to get a job but couldn't?

Would have to be the early 90's wouldn't it? Aside from a few Months around the GFC perhaps.

But really the early 90's was the last time that things were really sluggish and not much work around.

Have we pretty much been in a 30 year economic boom, is this the new normal?

Asking for a friend.

It's a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.

I think here in NZ we could have the latter for a period

[Ferg]

I understand that there is a saying...If one is making 7 percent compounding pa over a life time you are doing ok.I believe its correct to say most kiwis are great at making dosh...BUT cannot keep it.
There is a huge difference between money and wealth.

Good point. Another anecdote is that it often takes 2 or 3 generations to build the wealth, and only 1 to destroy it.

[kiora]

Good point. Another anecdote is that it often takes 2 or 3 generations to build the wealth, and only 1 to destroy it.

There are very good exceptions even in NZ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Todd_Corporation#:~:text=The%20Todd%20Corporation% 20is%20a,chief%20executive%20officer%2C%20Evan%20D avies.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/inside-the-todd-empire/ZZELW2JLG3ZCZ2RHXGF5GLD2UY/

"Charles Todd, the late founder of the Todd family fortune, left no room for doubt. You were either in or out - there was no in-between.

Todd Corp's founding document makes the distinction clear: "Todd Family means the persons who are descendants natural or adopted of Charles Todd, late of Wellington, merchant, who died on 21 August 1942 and his wife Mary Todd ... "

Even spouses - individuals most New Zealanders would regard as family - are excluded from holding shares."

"Direct relatives, who number 160, must make up at least a quarter of the board - currently four of nine directors. They also get to appoint the chairman and set his terms of employment."

"Among other things, it allowed the family to make long-term decisions."

"As the Todd Corp is mainly owned by trusts, the power of individual beneficiaries to control their share of the corporation's capital is diluted."

"John Todd says the creation of the council was a response to the dispersal of the family's wealth with each successive generation.

This required the creation of a body that could consider the family's interest as a whole, rather than the interests of discrete shareholders"

"He points to the constitution, which makes clear provision for beneficiaries to ultimately sell out of the family if it is their wish. Share values, in the case of dispute, are set by professional valuers and are then offered to the rest of the family."

"The Todd Corp annual meeting in Wellington is well attended by beneficiaries who, including newborns, number 160 individuals. It is estimated they each receive an average of $328,000 a year from the company."

[winner69]

We may be at peak disinflation now. Might be harder for RBNZ to cut rates.

[Ggcc]

We may be at peak disinflation now. Might be harder for RBNZ to cut rates.
From what I am hearing from business owners it would be silly to consider hiking up interest rates. The customers are not there right now. Maybe no interest rate cuts any time yet, but they will definitely be there by the end of the year. Businesses are hurting really bad at the moment. Stability in interest rates seems to be the best thing for now. I would start reducing interest rates slowly by the middle of this year if I was in charge of the reserve bank. Very slowly

[SailorRob]

From what I am hearing from business owners it would be silly to consider hiking up interest rates. The customers are not there right now. Maybe no interest rate cuts any time yet, but they will definitely be there by the end of the year. Businesses are hurting really bad at the moment. Stability in interest rates seems to be the best thing for now. I would start reducing interest rates slowly by the middle of this year if I was in charge of the reserve bank. Very slowly

It's not what you don't know that will hurt you, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

There is no definitely in finance. Everyone knows rate cuts are coming this year... Let's see what happens.

If customers were not there we would be in deflation.

I for one don't have a clue what's coming.

[Valuegrowth]

I get the feeling that Monday maybe not so hot...anyone care to comment.

We may see not only Mondays that not so hot but also other days that not so hot. History is repeating in a different manner.

[Valuegrowth]

We may be at peak disinflation now. Might be harder for RBNZ to cut rates.

Still central bankers are struggling to control the inflation. Inflation should follow deflation.

As I said the most likely scenario is rate pause or cutting rates but cannot expect cost of doing business to go down rapidly. They will go down if there is a deflation. I don’t worry much about inflation, deflation, or any macro situation when I pick stocks. I make use of microeconomics for my investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

Finally, inflation is coming down except houisng inflation. The biggest inflated asset in the entire world. Unless global policy makers sort out housing crisis more and more people will struggle to buy their first home and pay thier rising rents.

https://www.ft.com/content/088d3368-bb8b-4ff3-9df7-a7680d4d81b2

[Valuegrowth]

We may be at peak disinflation now. Might be harder for RBNZ to cut rates.

W69: I think you are right. Sometimes rates cut may get postponed.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-prices-rise-more-134523161.html

"U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December, with Americans paying more for shelter and healthcare, suggesting it was probably too early for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates."

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSxyFsU-8ss

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5Hx9KXMJCI

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuvb-ZmUyVk

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m21nzLtx5DM

[Daytr]

Something to keep an eye on.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/12/corporation-tax-break-lobby

[Snoopy]

Something to keep an eye on.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/12/corporation-tax-break-lobby

Maybe it is just me not following the US tax situation closely. But I found that Guardian article incredibly difficult to follow. I knew about the Trump era corporate tax cuts reducing the US corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. But obviously there were a whole lot of things that went along with those tax cuts of which I was unaware. It sounds like everybody wants more money via the tax system. But is it likely to happen, or unlikely to happen?

The article hints that there was a 'democrat sweetener' tied to the tax cuts, with what was originally termed a 'Covid relief package' and had been used to expand the size and accessibility of the federal child tax credit, which provides assistance to low-income families with children. But that wasn't 'offsetting' anything. It just meant that the US government was getting less money from the corporates while giving more money to the less well off. I.E both 'sides' were net spending more. The article says the low income assistance has expired, but now the corporates claim that further tax relief is urgently required for business. If more tax cuts go through (Republican wish), or more money is directed towards the less well off (Democrat wish) it sounds like higher interest rates for longer to me.

Have I interpreted that article right? Or have I completely missed the point?

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

Maybe it is just me not following the US tax situation closely. But I found that Guardian article incredibly difficult to follow. I knew about the Trump era corporate tax cuts reducing the US corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. But obviously there were a whole lot of things that went along with those tax cuts of which I was unaware. It sounds like everybody wants more money via the tax system. But is it likely to happen, or unlikely to happen?

The article hints that there was a 'democrat sweetener' tied to the tax cuts, with what was originally termed a 'Covid relief package' and had been used to expand the size and accessibility of the federal child tax credit, which provides assistance to low-income families with children. But that wasn't 'offsetting' anything. It just meant that the US government was getting less money from the corporates while giving more money to the less well off. I.E both 'sides' were net spending more. The article says the low income assistance has expired, but now the corporates claim that further tax relief is urgently required for business. If more tax cuts go through (Republican wish), or more money is directed towards the less well off (Democrat wish) it sounds like higher interest rates for longer to me.

Have I interpreted that article right? Or have I completely missed the point?

SNOOPY

I think you nailed it.

Nothing to keep an eye on.

Far too complex to have any read on whatsoever specially one that will give you some form of edge.

Just buy good companies cheap and sit on your arse.

[Daytr]

Maybe it is just me not following the US tax situation closely. But I found that Guardian article incredibly difficult to follow. I knew about the Trump era corporate tax cuts reducing the US corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. But obviously there were a whole lot of things that went along with those tax cuts of which I was unaware. It sounds like everybody wants more money via the tax system. But is it likely to happen, or unlikely to happen?

The article hints that there was a 'democrat sweetener' tied to the tax cuts, with what was originally termed a 'Covid relief package' and had been used to expand the size and accessibility of the federal child tax credit, which provides assistance to low-income families with children. But that wasn't 'offsetting' anything. It just meant that the US government was getting less money from the corporates while giving more money to the less well off. I.E both 'sides' were net spending more. The article says the low income assistance has expired, but now the corporates claim that further tax relief is urgently required for business. If more tax cuts go through (Republican wish), or more money is directed towards the less well off (Democrat wish) it sounds like higher interest rates for longer to me.

Have I interpreted that article right? Or have I completely missed the point?

SNOOPY

Sounds about right to me Snoop
I think if the cost is able to be contained under $1.5Tln they don't need the Democrats to approve hence only the corporates & wealthy will get direct benefit.

Of course it's the last thing the Federal deficit needs.

[Baa_Baa]

I don't like the mid-Dec to mid-Jan market, esp so in NZ, they're distorted by typically low volumes and extreme movements, and the charts show this every year, trading movements are not to be trusted during this period.

From the 15th and certainly after 22nd, most or all of the instos, funds, brokers, will all be back and looking for their commission, the markets will normalise trading and we will find out whether the volatile xmas period was real or another contrived and unreliable indication that most years past have been.

All the best to everyone in investing in 2024, I think we deserve a break after a truely volatile and unpredictable past three years.

[Snoopy]

Reply to post 18030

Tent city established in Brisbane. Authorities not moving the people on because they know they have nowhere to go.

200,000 immigrants was average number of immigrants to Oz in a pre-pandemic year. 240,000 was the peak. Last year it was 518,000. Plus the interstate population drift to Queensland is exasperating the situation. Oz government has a new policy of reducing immigration. A portent of what is to come in NZ?

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

I don't like the mid-Dec to mid-Jan market, esp so in NZ, they're distorted by typically low volumes and extreme movements, and the charts show this every year, trading movements are not to be trusted during this period.

From the 15th and certainly after 22nd, most or all of the instos, funds, brokers, will all be back and looking for their commission, the markets will normalise trading and we will find out whether the volatile xmas period was real or another contrived and unreliable indication that most years past have been.

All the best to everyone in investing in 2024, I think we deserve a break after a truely volatile and unpredictable past three years.


Hang on, aren't extreme movements exactly what we should pray for as investors?

Deserve a break from volatility and unpredictability of the last 3 years? What? Man without the volatile and unpredictable last 3 years my net worth would be half of what it currently is.

I and any serious investor should be praying for massive historically unprecedented volatility....

You are saying that what we want is predictable and stable markets, this would be hell for investing.

I respect your posts and would be very interested in your reasons for;

a) not liking the low volumes and extreme movements

b) wanting a break from th volatility and unpredictable last 3 years.

For me this would be death.

[bull....]

Hang on, aren't extreme movements exactly what we should pray for as investors?

Deserve a break from volatility and unpredictability of the last 3 years? What? Man without the volatile and unpredictable last 3 years my net worth would be half of what it currently is.

I and any serious investor should be praying for massive historically unprecedented volatility....

You are saying that what we want is predictable and stable markets, this would be hell for investing.

I respect your posts and would be very interested in your reasons for;

a) not liking the low volumes and extreme movements

b) wanting a break from th volatility and unpredictable last 3 years.

For me this would be death.

said like a true trader

[SailorRob]

said like a true trader

There is no way that was a serious post from Baa_Baa.

Good to have you back Bull, on the same day everyone who has a normal job working for someone who employs them is also back to work.

Total coincidence as you've been independent for 20 years trading full time making money from any chart anywhere any time.

I guess you just take the time off to coincide with poor souls who are forced to holiday at the same time. Social reasons etc.

[SailorRob]

I don't like the mid-Dec to mid-Jan market, esp so in NZ, they're distorted by typically low volumes and extreme movements, and the charts show this every year, trading movements are not to be trusted during this period.

From the 15th and certainly after 22nd, most or all of the instos, funds, brokers, will all be back and looking for their commission, the markets will normalise trading and we will find out whether the volatile xmas period was real or another contrived and unreliable indication that most years past have been.

All the best to everyone in investing in 2024, I think we deserve a break after a truely volatile and unpredictable past three years.


If you own a nice productive profitable dairy farm, you want your messed up drunk neighbour to be coming around daily with ridiculous and dramatically changing offers to buy your farm and/or to sell you his.

You can choose to ignore him and nothing at all changes.

You can choose to take advantage of one of the offers.

Or you could be somehow led to believe this situation is a disadvantage to you.

[bull....]

There is no way that was a serious post from Baa_Baa.

Good to have you back Bull, on the same day everyone who has a normal job working for someone who employs them is also back to work.

Total coincidence as you've been independent for 20 years trading full time making money from any chart anywhere any time.

I guess you just take the time off to coincide with poor souls who are forced to holiday at the same time. Social reasons etc.

i normally trade thru xmas new yr but after such a great yr and obvious reasons there would be profit taking to start the new yr i decided to take some time off to head up nth. probably saw your boat at tutukaka ? i was around the marina for a while.
anyway back from a break batteries re-charged and wife going back to work ( cause she enjoys working lol ) like you say should get some volatilty this yr lots of opp's for sailor and bull

[SailorRob]

i normally trade thru xmas new yr but after such a great yr and obvious reasons there would be profit taking to start the new yr i decided to take some time off to head up nth. probably saw your boat at tutukaka ? i was around the marina for a while.
anyway back from a break batteries re-charged and wife going back to work ( cause she enjoys working lol ) like you say should get some volatilty this yr lots of opp's for sailor and bull

Yes sometimes I'm forced into trading like with Davita. The horror of volatility allowed me to make a years living expenses in 6 weeks.

[bull....]

Yes sometimes I'm forced into trading like with Davita. The horror of volatility allowed me to make a years living expenses in 6 weeks.

a traders wet dream that stock.( i like your pick ) anyway the folk on cnbc ( not that you listen to any of them ) are saying healthcare / biotech might be a good sector this yr after not being such a hot sector in 23. dva might go parabolic lol
uranium going good to in jan. azz's boss energy on asx going well. i like it too as well as nvidia and amd for ai plays

anyway like i say random folk on the internet good for idea's. better than some fund managers

[winner69]

I don't like the mid-Dec to mid-Jan market, esp so in NZ, they're distorted by typically low volumes and extreme movements, and the charts show this every year, trading movements are not to be trusted during this period.

From the 15th and certainly after 22nd, most or all of the instos, funds, brokers, will all be back and looking for their commission, the markets will normalise trading and we will find out whether the volatile xmas period was real or another contrived and unreliable indication that most years past have been.

All the best to everyone in investing in 2024, I think we deserve a break after a truely volatile and unpredictable past three years.

Not much activity today on NZX …..big boys must be having another week off …and for those in Wellington probably a long weekend as well

[alokdhir]

https://www.ndtv.com/science/china-firm-claims-its-coin-sized-battery-could-generate-50-year-electricity-without-charging-4867655#pfrom=home-ndtv_topstories

Atomic battery with 50 years life. !!! What will happen to Lithium stocks ? Maybe still needed for higher output batteries for cars etc

But now the technology is being developed so fast that many old concepts and products can just become obsolete in no time ...not easy to stay put in high technology stocks like Apple forever ...but Buffet thinks he can ....or maybe no more ?

[SailorRob]

https://www.ndtv.com/science/china-firm-claims-its-coin-sized-battery-could-generate-50-year-electricity-without-charging-4867655#pfrom=home-ndtv_topstories

Atomic battery with 50 years life. !!! What will happen to Lithium stocks ? Maybe still needed for higher output batteries for cars etc

But now the technology is being developed so fast that many old concepts and products can just become obsolete in no time ...not easy to stay put in high technology stocks like Apple forever ...but Buffet thinks he can ....or maybe no more ?

*Buffett announced that he sold his entire Apple position this morning due to this latest development.

Even though the market was closed.

And that Apple isn't a 'high technology' stock but a mass consumer goods company.

[Bjauck]

https://www.ndtv.com/science/china-firm-claims-its-coin-sized-battery-could-generate-50-year-electricity-without-charging-4867655#pfrom=home-ndtv_topstories

Atomic battery with 50 years life. !!! What will happen to Lithium stocks ? Maybe still needed for higher output batteries for cars etc

But now the technology is being developed so fast that many old concepts and products can just become obsolete in no time ...not easy to stay put in high technology stocks like Apple forever ...but Buffet thinks he can ....or maybe no more ? The atomic battery sounds too good. Just with respect to batteries, a lot of the apple turnover (no pun intended!) depends on replacing the battery or buying a new iPad &c when the battery starts to fade, often within a couple of years.

[SailorRob]

The atomic battery sounds too good. Just with respect to batteries, a lot of the apple turnover (no pun intended!) depends on replacing the battery or buying a new iPad &c when the battery starts to fade, often within a couple of years.

Yeah it sounds amazing.

Firstly, it's a just a claim.

Second, it's hoped that it can produce ONE watt by 2025....

One Watt.

Alokdhir says that we will maybe need a battery that produces more that ONE watt for cars.

Well maybe.

[mike2020]

Sounds like fake news. Chinese making a grab for Li and REEs. Apparently a lot of the Li oversupply in China is of exceptionally poor quality. Those Chinese. Very clever.

[SailorRob]

Sounds like fake news. Chinese making a grab for Li and REEs. Apparently a lot of the Li oversupply in China is of exceptionally poor quality. Those Chinese. Very clever.

Exactly. Buffett dumped his entire Apple stock on fake news....

Alokdhirs post was ridiculous, not thought through for even a second.

[Azza]

This is a more likely option... will take a while before lithium is replaced... https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/amazon-backed-firm-unveils-revolutionary-indoor-solar-tech-at-ces-2024

[bull....]

The Reserve Bank says its chief economist will be speaking on economic developments a month before the first scheduled OCR announcement for the year in a move clearly aimed at guiding the markets after December's shock GDP fall

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125917/reserve-bank-says-its-chief-economist-will-be-speaking-economic-developments-full

this is a major obviously very concerned NZ going down the toilet to hold a news event

[bull....]

The Reserve Bank says its chief economist will be speaking on economic developments a month before the first scheduled OCR announcement for the year in a move clearly aimed at guiding the markets after December's shock GDP fall

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125917/reserve-bank-says-its-chief-economist-will-be-speaking-economic-developments-full

this is a major obviously very concerned NZ going down the toilet to hold a news event

posted by fed mouthpiece nick hrs ago

Fed Tiptoes Toward Dialing Back Key Channel of Monetary Tightening
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-tiptoes-toward-dialing-back-key-channel-of-monetary-tightening-55127982

apparently the banking system is looking ify .... has the rbnz been informed hence the unexpected meeting ?

[bull....]

New Zealand job ads fall 25 percent year-on-year - Seekhttps://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/01/new-zealand-job-ads-fall-25-percent-year-on-year-seek.html


House prices across NZ stall
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/506790/house-prices-across-nz-stall

[mike2020]

Your really in a mood today aren't you. You even called kfl a company.
Of course house sales stall. Happens most December's. Spoke to an agent Saturday who seemed very positive about action on the ground already. I think we might follow aussie with a huge housing shortage quicker than you can say kiwibuild.

[Bjauck]

Yeah it sounds amazing.

Firstly, it's a just a claim.

Second, it's hoped that it can produce ONE watt by 2025....

One Watt.

Alokdhir says that we will maybe need a battery that produces more that ONE watt for cars.

Well maybe.Good luck to the Chinese if they can develop one and make it cheaply. Maybe apple would buy the patents and then sit on them.

[SailorRob]

Good luck to they've e Chinese if they can develop one and make it cheaply. Maybe apple would buy the patents and then sit on them.

The only thing they've ever developed is gunpowder! And that's probably a myth. They are good at copying that's about it.

[Bjauck]

...
House prices across NZ stall


https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/506790/house-prices-across-nz-stall The government would throw even more at inflating house prices if that Ponzi scheme looked like it was going to collapse.

[Bjauck]

The only thing they've ever developed is gunpowder! And that's probably a myth. They are good at copying that's about it.
LOL. China had at least double the number of patents than the next closest nation in 2022. HK SAR registered more patents than the UK.

[SailorRob]

LOL. China had at least double the number of patents than the next closest nation in 2022. HK SAR registered more patents than the UK.

LOL lol... And what?

For jandals or some plastic toy?

There is only one country in the world at the very top of innovation and that's pretty obvious.

[Bjauck]

LOL lol... And what?

For jandals or some plastic toy?

There is only one country in the world at the very top of innovation and that's pretty obvious.There is then no need to make your Hero-America seem better by undermining other nations' achievements. The USA is comparatively good at commercialising innovations too. However not all top inventions emanate from there by any stretch of your imagination.

[Panda-NZ-]

LOL. China had at least double the number of patents than the next closest nation in 2022. HK SAR registered more patents than the UK.

Look at electric cars.. BYD dolphin, atto 3 and seal are better than an entry level tesla and cheaper (even tesla agrees which is why they have stolen their battery for some of their models).

[bull....]

$1000/year to drive your EV: Road user charges for electric vehicles from April 1
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/1000year-to-drive-your-ev-road-user-charges-for-electric-vehicles-from-april-1-transport-minister-simeon-brown-confirms/FYK45LJ3ZJD6LOJONCPO47AOHI/

[bull....]

Donald Trump wins Iowa caucuses in crucial victory
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/us-canada/301040475/donald-trump-wins-iowa-caucuses-in-crucial-victory

[bull....]

Iran says Revolutionary Guards attack Israel's 'spy HQ' in Iraq, vow more revenge
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-say-they-have-attacked-espionage-centers-iraqs-erbil-2024-01-15/

[alokdhir]

Donald Trump wins Iowa caucuses in crucial victory
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/us-canada/301040475/donald-trump-wins-iowa-caucuses-in-crucial-victory


Looks like he will get another chance " To make America Great " again. ...All European and many other leaders are really looking forward to it...dont know about China ...lol :p


PS : If u follow or watch FARGO ...latest version on Neon then u will know why he has such strong support in USA !!!

[Ggcc]

$1000/year to drive your EV: Road user charges for electric vehicles from April 1


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/1000year-to-drive-your-ev-road-user-charges-for-electric-vehicles-from-april-1-transport-minister-simeon-brown-confirms/FYK45LJ3ZJD6LOJONCPO47AOHI/

It is about time. This was necessary and logical.

[SailorRob]

There is then no need to make your Hero-America seem better by undermining other nations' achievements. The USA is comparatively good at commercialising innovations too. However not all top inventions emanate from there by any stretch of your imagination.

Not all, most.

[percy]

It is about time. This was necessary and logical.

2CC quick to react.


https://mailchi.mp/24d681bcceaa/black-friday-sale-enjoy-300-off-all-cars-6160205?e=f3df0e38d4

[SailorRob]

My mate 2cups is trying to join Sharetrader but not having much luck. No reply from admin. I didn't realise you needed to get reply from admin to join, anyone know anything that could be of help to him?

[thedrunkfish]

My mate 2cups is trying to join Sharetrader but not having much luck. No reply from admin. I didn't realise you needed to get reply from admin to join, anyone know anything that could be of help to him?

Dont let him get off on the wrong foot by declaring he's a mate of yours might be a good start.

[SailorRob]

Dont let him get off on the wrong foot by declaring he's a mate of yours might be a good start.

You have some very high quality posts here drunk and from what I can gather you are a astute investor who will have some great returns to your name.

Or....

[Valuegrowth]

Post 18062:There is only one country in the world at the very top of innovation and that's pretty obvious.

It's non other than South Korea.

[Valuegrowth]

Post 18062:There is only one country in the world at the very top of innovation and that's pretty obvious.

It's none other than South Korea.

[ValueNZ]

My mate 2cups is trying to join Sharetrader but not having much luck. No reply from admin. I didn't realise you needed to get reply from admin to join, anyone know anything that could be of help to him?

Try emailing vince.stforum@gmail.com

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/01/american-tourists-harassed-van-destroyed-by-rude-and-angry-kiwis.html

If one didnt handle start of lawlessness then it mushrooms in total chaos ....NZ getting this reputation will destroy our important tourism industry .

Used to be safe place but hooliganism has made it hell and these days news spread fast ...many will say these are not the kind of tourists we want ...but unsafe reputation will drive all tourists .

Sad part is they do for fun ....as our systems are based on kindness and self policing ...not working out at the moment ...too many mentally disturbed youth in our country ...they need help ...both stick and carrot help .

[Bjauck]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/01/american-tourists-harassed-van-destroyed-by-rude-and-angry-kiwis.html

If one didnt handle start of lawlessness then it mushrooms in total chaos ....NZ getting this reputation will destroy our important tourism industry .

Used to be safe place but hooliganism has made it hell and these days news spread fast ...many will say these are not the kind of tourists we want ...but unsafe reputation will drive all tourists .

Sad part is they do for fun ....as our systems are based on kindness and self policing ...not working out at the moment ...too many mentally disturbed youth in our country ...they need help ...both stick and carrot help .

The end of the golden weather has been with us for some time in NZ. There is a divergent society with less of the community spirit and more young people growing up feeling excluded from what their own country NZ can offer. When you have a fractured experience in your own country, it may be difficult to extend hospitality to others?

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/a-government-debt-disaster-made-in-japan-richard-prebble/3GD7PFFUXZA45I2ZWVDD67PLBQ/

Debt of 250% of GDP is mind boggling ...even a 1% rate will cripple Govt finances ....seems like no way out then going bust and start again ....can country of the standing of Japan can do that without unleashing super Lehman moment on world markets ?? Too bad to happen ...so wont happen ??

[bull....]

Quality of NZ newspapers and stories hit new low today with new stuff website lol

[winner69]

Quality of NZ newspapers and stories hit new low today with new stuff website lol

…..and the app not updating …whoops

[bull....]

posted by fed mouthpiece nick hrs ago

Fed Tiptoes Toward Dialing Back Key Channel of Monetary Tightening


https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-tiptoes-toward-dialing-back-key-channel-of-monetary-tightening-55127982

apparently the banking system is looking ify .... has the rbnz been informed hence the unexpected meeting ?

following on from this yest i see fed waller mentioning it today

Fed’s Christopher Waller advocates moving ‘carefully’ with rate cuts
Along with rate cuts, Waller said he anticipates the Fed this year can start slowing the pace of “quantitative tightening,” or the reduction of the central bank balance sheet by allowing proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off without reinvesting them

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/16/feds-christopher-waller-advocates-moving-carefully-with-rate-cuts.html

[workingdad]

$1000/year to drive your EV: Road user charges for electric vehicles from April 1
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/1000year-to-drive-your-ev-road-user-charges-for-electric-vehicles-from-april-1-transport-minister-simeon-brown-confirms/FYK45LJ3ZJD6LOJONCPO47AOHI/

Seems fair but I don’t agree with the PHEV rate of $53/1000km. Most PHEVs have very limited range under battery and it’s fine if you live in Auckland as most driving in battery mode but for everyone else not metropolitan most of it is using petrol so RUC added to this is having to pay twice. We have had a deposit on a new PHEV that we will now change to dirty ol combustion engine. Not paying more for a car to then pay more to run it. I think National have set this rate too high and anyone with a PHEV not living in metropolitan area will be disadvantaged for having bought one.

[Rawz]

Seems fair but I don’t agree with the PHEV rate of $53/1000km. Most PHEVs have very limited range under battery and it’s fine if you live in Auckland as most driving in battery mode but for everyone else not metropolitan most of it is using petrol so RUC added to this is having to pay twice. We have had a deposit on a new PHEV that we will now change to dirty ol combustion engine. Not paying more for a car to then pay more to run it. I think National have set this rate too high and anyone with a PHEV not living in metropolitan area will be disadvantaged for having bought one.

How is it unfair if its a per km rate? you will be paying the same as the auckland driver.
Doesnt matter if you drive more so that the petrol kicks in

[777]

How is it unfair if its a per km rate? you will be paying the same as the auckland driver.
Doesnt matter if you drive more so that the petrol kicks in

Actually it does.

[Rawz]

Actually it does.

thank you lol

[iamaskier]

How is it unfair if its a per km rate? you will be paying the same as the auckland driver.
Doesnt matter if you drive more so that the petrol kicks in

While your PHEV is running on petrol you are paying both the tax on the petrol and the $53/1000km RUCs. Depending on where you live or the EV only range of your PHEV this "double dipping" can be pretty significant. The way they've worked it out for PHEVs seems sloppy and I've taken the time to express that to them.

[Bobdn]

EVs struggle to work without subsidies. And they're about as clean as my bathroom.

Anyway, now that I've got that off my chest, I see the S&P reached an all time high on 3 January 2022. We're heading towards the sixth longest period between new highs.

Interesting 2019 article attached:

"Long Spans Before New Market Highs can Prove bullish"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4257978-long-spans-new-market-highs-can-prove-bullish

[Rawz]

While your PHEV is running on petrol you are paying both the tax on the petrol and the $53/1000km RUCs. Depending on where you live or the EV only range of your PHEV this "double dipping" can be pretty significant. The way they've worked it out for PHEVs seems sloppy and I've taken the time to express that to them.

Oh yes I see. Agree, that’s a double up

[workingdad]

How is it unfair if its a per km rate? you will be paying the same as the auckland driver.
Doesnt matter if you drive more so that the petrol kicks in

Already answered :)

I would be happy to pay my share if we went ahead with the PHEV but not at $53/1000km and predominantly higher petrol reliance than a metro user.

[Mrbuyit]

A bit off topic, but it seems like the next logical step is to add ruc for petrol engine vehicles too. I would say that'd include removing the tax from fuel, but somehow I can't see this happening..

[stoploss]

A bit off topic, but it seems like the next logical step is to add ruc for petrol engine vehicles too. I would say that'd include removing the tax from fuel, but somehow I can't see this happening..
I think collecting GST and tax from the multi national oil/petrol companies is probably more efficient. IE : You purchase the fuel to use you pay the tax in advance.
So many cars driving around with the registration out , let alone ones with the Rucs behind , or a speedo that is disconnected so not recording the K's travelled.
I know some of this can catch up with you at warrant time, but think the current system might be better.

[winner69]

In case you didn’t notice Nvidia NVDA has now traded green 7 of the last 8 days and just hit another all-time high

[workingdad]

A bit off topic, but it seems like the next logical step is to add ruc for petrol engine vehicles too. I would say that'd include removing the tax from fuel, but somehow I can't see this happening..

It’s only a matter of time as cars become more fuel efficient and the tax take drops. Would need a system that differentiates between Suzuki swift and SUVs…

[bull....]

In case you didn’t notice Nvidia NVDA has now traded green 7 of the last 8 days and just hit another all-time high

yep mentioned nvidia and amd the other day. amd up 8% today in US

[bull....]

China misses fourth-quarter GDP estimates, resumes posting youth unemployment data
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/china-misses-fourth-quarter-gdp-estimates-resumes-posting-youth-unemployment-data.html

bad for NZ of course

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.mining.com/web/china-cobalt-buyers-use-global-glut-to-challenge-pricing/

"Lithium and nickel also plunged along with cobalt in 2023 as supply expanded, China’s booming EV industry dialed down its breakneck pace of growth. The price slump has wreaked havoc, with new projects stalling, inventories ballooning and investor interest on the wane."

[bull....]

Taranaki hapū appeals to UN over fast-tracked giant turbines


Hapū representatives say laws with slashed input from locals risk becoming the norm as resource management is overhauled by the coalition Government

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/01/17/taranaki-hapu-appeals-to-un-over-fast-tracked-giant-turbines/

oh no.... is koha under threat in NZ

[bull....]

pakastan attacks iran

[alokdhir]

pakastan attacks iran

Last I knew it was called Pakistan ...lol which means land of pure !! :p

U again started bearish scary posts ...is it the US10Y u follow or your gut or charts ...Yes all knew that Bonds will retreat from fast climb ...now get ready for plateu soon ...then rally starts again ...thats how it works ? your charts ...nothing falls or rises in perfect straight lines ...

[SailorRob]

pakastan attacks iran

Who or what is pakastan?

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ptivoYY478

[Valuegrowth]

Three major wars which changed the world: First world war, second world war and Korean war. Later regional wars, wars within countries, tribes, and different races. What would be next? We are investing our hard earn money in a highly risky investment world. When next big war start, hardly there will be demand for consumer items other than demand for basic things which include selected commodities. I hate this all types of wars. Fortunately, I rebalanced my portfolio in advance after analysing major events like covid-19, great depression, and major wars. What happened in the past may happen again.

[bull....]

yep mentioned nvidia and amd the other day. amd up 8% today in US

nividia and amd hittting new highs again today. what a start to 24

[Bobdn]

Yes and closer to home, USF and USG hitting new all time highs every day just about. Poor old NZD;)

NVIDIA is 5.5 per cent of Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund which I own. It irritated me that it was there in that proportion because it seemed so over valued! Like I would know. That was when the share price was a few hundred dollars cheaper.

My instincts and gut feel are always wrong it seems.

[SailorRob]

It irritated me that it was there because it seemed so over valued! Like I would know. That was when the share price was a few hundred dollars cheaper.

I think you know very well. Far better than the market.

Process vs outcome.

You were correct to be more than irritated. Your procees was right.

The outcome was different but that doesn't matter over a lifetime.

[Valuegrowth]

Better avoid crowded hot stocks of today and focus on tomorrow's winners. I already parked my money in boring stuff.

[bull....]

Yes and closer to home, USF and USG hitting new all time highs every day just about. Poor old NZD;)

NVIDIA is 5.5 per cent of Kernel Wealth's Global 100 fund which I own. It irritated me that it was there in that proportion because it seemed so over valued! Like I would know. That was when the share price was a few hundred dollars cheaper.

My instincts and gut feel are always wrong it seems.

Growing earnings at 30% + . far better than berkshire

[bull....]

if your into data to do with stock performance on the ASX

BUYING the market in the January selloff - sees big returns…
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buying-the-market-in-the-january-selloff-sees-big-returns

[percy]

However sell in May and go away has mixed results..?

[bull....]

Population growth form migration surged to a record high of 127,209 in the 12 months to November last year, according to provisional figures* from Statistics NZ.

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125981/population-growth-migration-now-almost-double-what-it-was-pre-covid

now we just need better infrastructure to support all the new migrants

[Muse]

Population growth form migration surged to a record high of 127,209 in the 12 months to November last year, according to provisional figures* from Statistics NZ.

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125981/population-growth-migration-now-almost-double-what-it-was-pre-covid

now we just need better infrastructure to support all the new migrants



Just build another Hamilton sized city and associated infrastructure every year. Am sure NZ is up for it as we have all the systems, processes and capabilities to execute on it. No problem.

[Aaron]

I've heard about a new town being built in Drury. Good news for KPGs risky investment.

Out of control immigration can't be good for the nation. Push down wages and push up rents. I wonder who benefits from that.

[bull....]

Just build another Hamilton sized city and associated infrastructure every year. Am sure NZ is up for it as we have all the systems, processes and capabilities to execute on it. No problem.

yep NZ could do it just need a govt to just do it.

[alokdhir]

NZ Weekly Data Wrap: cuts from August, with risks both ways




We now expect the RBNZ to deliver a steady sequence of 25bp OCR cuts starting in August (https://publications.anz.com/SingletrackCMS__DownloadDocument?docRef=9f020f8d-ac0f-4362-902a-9fea6994fc8f&uid=b998bbc0-6264-4a07-8394-1538e10f759a&jobRef=85b02338-aabc-4701-a9d5-84c5b67c6744), taking the OCR to 3.5% over 12 months. Over the next six months, a strong supply recovery, previous weakness in economic activity and a deteriorating labour market should result in rapid disinflation for domestically driven CPI components.
The RBNZ’s February Statement is still a long way away, but on 30 January Chief Economist Paul Conway will deliver a speech that will include “brief comments on domestic data developments” since the hawkish November MPS. The market is divided about what the message might be. Some seem to believe it will be a mea culpa smoothing the path to a much more dovish February MPS. We don't think that is at all likely.
Next Wednesday brings the release of the Q4 CPI data. We’re expecting some good news, with annual headline inflation expected to decelerate sharply from 5.6% to 4.7% y/y (0.6% q/q), below the RBNZ’s November forecast of 5.0% y/y (0.8% q/q). But all of the downside surprise to the RBNZ’s forecast is driven by weaker tradables inflation. We expect the all-important non-tradables inflation measure to print in line with the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 5.7% y/y, down from 6.3% y/y in Q3.


ANZ latest forecast ....music to ears holding growth stocks like KFL ...lol

[Valuegrowth]

Push down wages and push up rents. I wonder who benefits from that.

Already rents have rocketed world wide. Rent inflation could lead to lower consumer spending and slow down in businesses. High rent is one of the paths to high inflation.

[SailorRob]

Growing earnings at 30% + . far better than berkshire


Far better.

Keen for a bet which provides better returns over the next 10 years?

Name the amount you wish to part with and I will draw up the contract.

[Bobdn]

NVIDIA is up 1350 per cent over the last 5 years vs Berkshire's 81 per cent in that period.

I'd think there'd be almost no chance NVIDIA will be do better than Berkshire over the next 10 years. Mind you, if I owned NVIDIA I would have sold it long ago, happy with my 50 per cent gain. Reason number 204 why I don't own individual stocks: I always sold my winners too early.

[Valuegrowth]

However sell in May and go away has mixed results..?
I think you are totally right about that.

[Valuegrowth]

What we are currently seeing is the final stage of the current long bull market. Lot of people have got excited about magnificent 7. At some point eventually the party will end. Japanese stocks are also roaring back. Some say this rally is different from the 1999’s ‘Bubble high’. In every bull market some people used to say this time is different. No. it’s not different to me. AFAIK Bull market will follow bear market. It’s a known thing in asset markets. More or less, it’s going to be a ‘stock picker’s market in 2024. I have picked stocks for all occasions.

[SailorRob]

I'd think there'd be almost no chance NVIDIA will be do better than Berkshire over the next 10 years.

Shush! I'm hoping bovine discharge will take the bet.

[Valuegrowth]

What we are currently seeing is the final stage of the current long bull market. Lot of people have got excited about magnificent 7. At some point eventually the party will end. Japanese stocks are also roaring back. Some say this rally is different from the 1999’s ‘Bubble high’. In every bull market some people used to say this time is different. No. it’s not different to me. AFAIK Bull market will follow bear market. It’s a known thing in asset markets. More or less, it’s going to be a ‘stock picker’s market in 2024. I have picked stocks for all occasions.

Finally, S & P 500 hit a new record high thanks to few hot stocks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/p-500-reaches-record-high-183008611.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

[bull....]

Finally, S & P 500 hit a new record high thanks to few hot stocks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/p-500-reaches-record-high-183008611.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

yep and amd and nvidia both at new high's yet again 4% odd up vrs berkshire 1% for the day

[Valuegrowth]

yep and amd and nvidia both at new high's yet again 4% odd up vrs berkshire 1% for the day
There are hidden gems in global markets. I prefer boring businesses with long term potential which are trading below world market indexes at very attractive prices now. It doesn't matter whether I put money in magnificent 7, Berkshire or elsewhere as long as they are under my investment strategy which include sustainability, social responsibility, environmental protection, preserving capital, high dividend yields, going concern, demand for all occasions, growing cash flow, last but not least strong balance sheet. People are busy with known companies. So, they miss diamonds. What I see in the global market is experienced people know how to play the market. One experience fund in Asian frontier markets that I get monthly Newsletter has become the best fund in the world by giving more than 100% return over the last 12 months by investing in one country. I should have given some of my money to them as they beat even magnificent 7. Some are selling diamonds and buying garbage.

[bull....]

There are hidden gems in global markets. I prefer boring businesses with long term potential which are trading below world market indexes at very attractive prices now. It doesn't matter whether I put money in magnificent 7, Berkshire or elsewhere as long as they are under my investment strategy which include sustainability, social responsibility, environmental protection, preserving capital, high dividend yields, going concern, demand for all occasions, growing cash flow, last but not least strong balance sheet. People are busy with known companies. So, they miss diamonds. What I see in the global market is experienced people know how to play the market. One experience fund in Asian frontier markets that I get monthly Newsletter has become the best fund in the world by giving more than 100% return over the last 12 months by investing in one country. I should have given some of my money to them as they beat even magnificent 7. Some are selling diamonds and buying garbage.

I prefer fast money over slow and boring money and hoping i pick the the one gem ( which is quite hard to do ) you are good if you can do that and good for you if that works. all styles can make money

[Habits]

Just build another Hamilton sized city and associated infrastructure every year. Am sure NZ is up for it as we have all the systems, processes and capabilities to execute on it. No problem.

NZ population sizes are expanding fast and Hamilton is nearly 200k, currently 185k

[Muse]

NZ population sizes are expanding fast and Hamilton is nearly 200k, currently 185k

The tron has gotten big! 20 years ago I would have been right. And a lot better looking.

[causecelebre]

Finally, S & P 500 hit a new record high thanks to few hot stocks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/p-500-reaches-record-high-183008611.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Not entirely. The equal weight S&P500 index is almost at ATH so I’d argue it’s broader than just a few hot stocks

[Bobdn]

S&P all time closing high! Exciting!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S%26P_500

@causecelebre agreed. This is broad. Value indexes eg bog standard VTV or MGV in my case are near all time highs. Total return, much higher with their solid dividend yields.

FOMO will be crushing for those on the sidelines waiting for an entry point. Perks me up to think about it.

[Valuegrowth]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/s-p-500-shatters-records-the-top-performing-stocks-in-january-2024-1032981017

The largest contributors to the broader year-to-date performance of the index were:


Company
Price
Weight
in the S&P 500
YTD Return
Contribution


NVIDIA Corporation
591.30
3.51%
19.40%
+0.5pp


Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)
397.93
7.29%
5.57%
+0.41pp


Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META)
383.22
1.24%
8.27%
+0.16pp


Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)
1,211.70
2.08%
16.85%
+0.10pp


Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
172.25
0.65%
7.71%
+0.10pp


Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG)
147.62
3.90%
4.75%
+0.09pp


Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)
627.13
1.80%
7.75%
+0.09pp


Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)
155.61
3.48%
2.27%
+0.09pp


Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK)
147.62
0.75%
4.60%
+0.06pp


AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV)
164.68
0.72%
7.27%
+0.05pp


The big mover is none other than NVIDIA.

[Bobdn]

@Valuegrowth, interesting information, thanks.

[Valuegrowth]

@Valuegrowth, interesting information, thanks. Why not we find out early stage next tech leaders now? Some of the Tech areas may soon be obsolete.

[Valuegrowth]

I prefer fast money over slow and boring money and hoping i pick the the one gem ( which is quite hard to do ) you are good if you can do that and good for you if that works. all styles can make money

I agree everybody has their own way of handling investment, trading,shorting or going long. The best shot call of 2023 didn't make either a hedge fund or a Well-know shorter. It was made byAmateur(‘DirtyBubble’Sleuth,). I am also going to short one sector to get some experience.That doesn't mean that I am going to do it as a profession
.
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/cryptocurrency-ftx-collapse-dirty-bubble-media/672440/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/cryptocurrency-ftx-collapse-dirty-bubble-media/672440/)

[bull....]

NZ inflation data this wed

Markets are now pricing an almost 80% chance the RBNZ eases rates in May - less than expectations at the start of January, while economists at ASB Bank Limited and ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited expect the first cut
(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/S7FRPHNQFBWG) in August at the earliest.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-21/tide-may-turn-for-nz-dollar-as-bets-on-interest-rate-cuts-pared?srnd=premium-asia

[winner69]

Brad Olsen fresh from mixing with the rich and powerful at Davos doesnt think interest rates will come down much this year

[winner69]

TA guy on tV says Nvidia has reached one of its most overbought levels in its history

So what …that’s how markets work eh

[Valuegrowth]

TA guy on tV says Nvidia has reached one of its most overbought levels in its history

So what …that’s how markets work eh

Same things they said two months back. Fortunately, I didn't short. We need to find out perfect time for complex trading.This time is not different. Markets go up, down and side way.I'm looking forward to see things that happened in markets in the past.

[Jaa]

Not entirely. The equal weight S&P500 index is almost at ATH so I’d argue it’s broader than just a few hot stocks

Do you invest in an equal weight S&P 500 index etf?

Was looking at it over the weekend, a good way to get the diversification you expect from an index.

Currently the magnificent 7 are 28% of the S&P 500, the highest level since the 1970s. They also added 72% of the index's gain last year. Prime for a reversal.

To pick on a few, Google and Meta have clearly peaked and Apple is courting anti trust on app store payments. Tesla and Nvidia look wildly overvalued.

Bubble fears siphon ETF flows away from Magnificent Seven
https://www.ft.com/content/19cd9d7d-ffb9-47ee-bc5e-1313a643c709

[bull....]

Commerce Commission to investigate supermarket duopoly: Woolworths, Foodstuffs
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/comcom-opens-fair-trading-act-probe-into-major-supermarkets/3HBZZEITIFCO7HX6HABA4FY63E/


even in Australia

AUST PM pledges supermarket probe will check out all options
https://www.aap.com.au/news/supermarket-probe-to-be-headed-by-former-labor-minister/

[Bobdn]

USV (US large cap value eg Berkshire, Broadcom, JP Morgan, and Exxon ) has just reached all time highs. It's about time!

I read that Broadcom is "the poor man's NVIDIA". I don't know why someone would say that. Edit: found the reference. Nancy Tengler/Yahoo Finance at 2.25 minute mark

https://youtu.be/hTWeLSIgKuc?si=J8bg6JDnYOUzzUYQ

Feels like we're in a new bull market.

USV is one of my picks in the competition. Should have gone for USG.

[Bobdn]

And now USS.nzx - US small caps have just reached an all time high.

It just feels too easy at the moment. Hopefully we'll see a bit of a correction in the coming months to blow off some steam and then a steady march upwards to Dow 40000 by the end of the year.

I wonder how long it will take for the NZ50c to reach all time highs again. It's miles away from it's January 2021 highs. Its turning out to be a long time between drinks .

[bull....]

And now USS.nzx - US small caps have just reached an all time high.

It just feels too easy at the moment. Hopefully we'll see a bit of a correction in the coming months to blow off some steam.

I wonder how long it will take for the NZ50c to reach all time highs again. It's miles away from it's January 2021 highs. Its turning out to be a long time between drinks .

might be a correllation between NZ50 and china markets :scared: china markets tanking maybe holding nz50 back ? possible considering there nz biggest export market some big investors offshore might make the assumption nz doomed if china implodes

i see us small caps tom lee was saying he reckon they go up 50% this yr ... wow see if he right again

[Bobdn]

Yes, he did say that. Small caps increased 20 percent late last year. Would be great to see them go up another 30 per cent.

China, NZ, Australia: it just feels like one market for sure. That's why I never invested much in emerging markets ETFs which are dominated by China, mostly. If China is doing well, Australia and NZ is doing well.

Mind you, the ASX is close to all time highs I see.

[bull....]

New Zealand’s services sector fell back into contraction during December, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI)

https://businessnz.org.nz/psi/activity-on-holiday/

everything contracting :scared: big gdp decline coming up

[Sideshow Bob]

New Zealand’s services sector fell back into contraction during December, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI)

https://businessnz.org.nz/psi/activity-on-holiday/

everything contracting :scared: big gdp decline coming up

Just keep importing more people..............:glare:

[bull....]

Just keep importing more people..............:glare:

to go on the job seeker

[alokdhir]

10.45 AM ...CPI data ...ours shud be more important as its quarterly and not monthly ...4.7% YOY consensus forecast 0.5% QoQ ...this should move the market as it will surely move the rates .

Maybe it helps breakout over 11800 towards 12400

[SailorRob]

10.45 AM ...CPI data ...ours shud be more important as its quarterly and not monthly ...4.7% YOY consensus forecast 0.5% QoQ ...this should move the market as it will surely move the rates .

Maybe it helps breakout over 11800 towards 12400

Never use a gross index for this type of analysis, use the capital index.

[winner69]

10.45 AM ...CPI data ...ours shud be more important as its quarterly and not monthly ...4.7% YOY consensus forecast 0.5% QoQ ...this should move the market as it will surely move the rates .

Maybe it helps breakout over 11800 towards 12400

You were spot on mate 4.7% and 0.5% it was

[SailorRob]

You were spot on mate 4.7% and 0.5% it was

Spot on but TOTALLY wrong that it would move rates let alone markets.

Hard game.

[winner69]

Apparently RBNZ preferred measure of CPI is the trimmed-mean number which exclude extreme price movements.

This ranged from 5.0 to 4.9 percent in the 12 months to the December 2023 quarter. This indicates that underlying inflation is higher than the 4.7 percent increase in the CPI. In the December 2023 quarter, quarterly trimmed means ranged between 0.6 and 0.7 percent.

[mike2020]

So basically back within the RBNZ mandated range annualized?

[bull....]

Spot on but TOTALLY wrong that it would move rates let alone markets.

Hard game.

market had guessed the result well before. no reaction required. only thing required is to get the bloody rent and food prices down
anyway im sure the rbnz will say at end of this mth ... inflation is still an issue rates need to stay high
in mean time the economy will keep tanking

[winner69]

Interesting that inflation has now fallen from 7.2% to 4.7% without significant cuts to government spending, and on a quarterly basis is now within the the target range. Inflation doesn’t appear to have been driven by government spending in any significant way.

[mike2020]

Oh come on the wasters were out most of that quarter plus probably to busy shredding for spending.

[thegreatestben]

Many govt dept’s were asked to start making cuts before the election and had been actively doing so for the last quarter at least.

[Valuegrowth]

Better to expect the unexpected from markets. Gas prices collapsed by 24% within a week. Crypto also has collapsed by 20% after launching ETF. These types of events in markets can become new normal.

[SailorRob]

Interesting that inflation has now fallen from 7.2% to 4.7% without significant cuts to government spending, and on a quarterly basis is now within the the target range. Inflation doesn’t appear to have been driven by government spending in any significant way.


The Suns apparent movement through the sky doesn't seem to be driven by the Earth spinning in any significant way.

Of all your posts mate this takes the pick I think.

[Mr Slothbear]

Interesting that inflation has now fallen from 7.2% to 4.7% without significant cuts to government spending, and on a quarterly basis is now within the the target range. Inflation doesn’t appear to have been driven by government spending in any significant way.

yes those are the reported numbers but “real” inflation definitely not as reduced just look at multiple large regional councils flagging 20-30% rate increases.


government spending does directly effect it in multiple ways including yield curves,
plus don’t forget reduction of car subsidy and effectively a new tax on RuC on electric and hybrids which is disinflationary fiscal policy

[bull....]

US hitting all time high's again :t_up: only place to be is the USA
bull's multi baggers hitting high's again meta nvidia amd

[causecelebre]

US hitting all time high's again :t_up: only place to be is the USA
bull's multi baggers hitting high's again meta nvidia amd

Say what you will about multiples. Onwards and upwards we go :) must be incredibly frustrating to be out of position and waiting for a pull back or not reacting to what the market has offered in the last year or so

[SailorRob]

yes those are the reported numbers but “real” inflation definitely not as reduced just look at multiple large regional councils flagging 20-30% rate increases.


government spending does directly effect it in multiple ways including yield curves,
plus don’t forget reduction of car subsidy and effectively a new tax on RuC on electric and hybrids which is disinflationary fiscal policy

If you have cash in bank at 5% then you're going backwards at double digits or close to it.

[SailorRob]

Say what you will about multiples. Onwards and upwards we go :) must be incredibly frustrating to be out of position and waiting for a pull back or not reacting to what the market has offered in the last year or so

Well almost all people on share trader can do it with ease, they can time the market and most are sitting on lots of cash and bonds....

Being leveraged into this and all markets is the key provided you can handle it.

[causecelebre]

Well almost all people on share trader can do it with ease, they can time the market and most are sitting on lots of cash and bonds....

Being leveraged into this and all markets is the key provided you can handle it.

My risk parity strat has been risk-on since oct '23 uses inverse-volatility-weighted blend of 3x levered ETFs, representing large-cap equities, financials, and long-dated treasuries, around 40% FAS, 32% TQQQ, 28% TMF

[winner69]

An economist says while inflation has slowed, it does not mean prices are going down.……read that this morning and thought that Rob might disagree

[alokdhir]

An economist says while inflation has slowed, it does not mean prices are going down.……read that this morning and thought that Rob might disagree

We measure RATE of inflation YOY ...not absolute values ...they never go down unless u want deflation which is more bad for stocks ...1-3% rate of price increases YOY works well for all ....controlled inflation ie controlled or within acceptable limits price rises is the aim always ...but I understand your post was meant for your bete noire ...:p

[winner69]

We measure RATE of inflation YOY ...not absolute values ...they never go down unless u want deflation which is more bad for stocks ...1-3% rate of price increases YOY works well for all ....controlled inflation ie controlled or within acceptable limits price rises is the aim always ...but I understand your post was meant for your bet noire ...:p

I smile when I hear commentators saying that covid price increases haven’t ‘unwound’ yet …..suppose they thinking prices wil revert to what they were a few years ago ..like lower than today

[alokdhir]

I smile when I hear commentators saying that covid price increases haven’t ‘unwound’ yet …..suppose they thinking prices wil revert to what they were a few years ago ..like lower than today

U think they will get quoted in news if they said what we all know ...they need to sensationalise the news to get quoted or attention of the masses ...after all its easy to be an economist ...all can have point of views and no need worry about it being finally right or wrong ....just change your next statement as circumstances or realities change ....we all are worthy economists at share traders ...we all have opinions and views ...but no following ...lol

[bull....]

My risk parity strat has been risk-on since oct '23 uses inverse-volatility-weighted blend of 3x levered ETFs, representing large-cap equities, financials, and long-dated treasuries, around 40% FAS, 32% TQQQ, 28% TMF

cool , momo and growth best factors at moment
2x nvidia etf 44% gain this mth vrs 27% for stock

[Bobdn]

$5 a dozen size 6 eggs at the Warehouse. I bought six dozen as I eat around 5 eggs days - sometimes a basic cheesy omelette with onion but mostly just scrambled.

Anyway, this is about the only product I've seen come back to around pre-covid prices and even that's a stretch to say that. I was getting eggs for $4 a dozen fairly routinely in 2020.

Well done the Warehouse. I also bought it's Farmgate milk: $3 per two litre and the wine gums they stock. Taverners wine gums are hard to beat.

[alokdhir]

$5 a dozen size 6 eggs at the Warehouse. I bought six dozen as I eat around 5 eggs days - sometimes a basic cheesy omelette with onion but mostly just scrambled.

Anyway, this is about the only product I've seen come back to around pre-covid prices and even that's a stretch to say that. I was getting eggs for $4 a dozen fairly routinely in 2020.

Well done the Warehouse. I also bought its Farmgate milk: $3 per two litre and the wine gums they stock. Taverners wine gums are hard to beat.

Perfect example of simple living and high thinking ...lol :t_up:

[causecelebre]

cool , momo and growth best factors at moment
2x nvidia etf 44% gain this mth vrs 27% for stock

Awesome! Current 12 month returns of that strat around 47%. Sharpe of 1.33 so moderate vol and max drawdown less than 17%. I think I can get the volatility and drawdown down a bit more without hurting returns too much. Work in progress :) my crypto strats are doing much better :)

[ValueNZ]

Nvidia is giving me South Sea vibes... Anyone else?

[causecelebre]

Nvidia is giving me South Sea vibes... Anyone else?

Until Steph Curry came on the scene ave 3 point shots per game was around 5-6 from memory, nows its double that and more He has revolutionised the game. Will AI? Mr Market thinks so....

[SailorRob]

Nvidia is giving me South Sea vibes... Anyone else?

Absolutely. I'll open a bet up to anyone, Berkshire vs Nividia over the next 10 years.

You back from the People's Socialist Republic of Canada?

[ValueNZ]

Absolutely. I'll open a bet up to anyone, Berkshire vs Nividia over the next 10 years.

You back from the People's Socialist Republic of Canada?

I get back on Sunday.

[Valuegrowth]

$5 a dozen size 6 eggs at the Warehouse. I bought six dozen as I eat around 5 eggs days - sometimes a basic cheesy omelette with onion but mostly just scrambled.

Anyway, this is about the only product I've seen come back to around pre-covid prices and even that's a stretch to say that. I was getting eggs for $4 a dozen fairly routinely in 2020.

Well done the Warehouse. I also bought it's Farmgate milk: $3 per two litre and the wine gums they stock. Taverners wine gums are hard to beat. I heard poultry industry is targeting 100% cage-free eggs in super markets by 2025.

[Maverick]

Nvidia is giving me South Sea vibes... Anyone else?

Value,
We all have different time frames playing to different drums.
By your chosen name "Value" , suggests long term...
The people driving Nvidia SP are just looking at next week. We are both playing our own games and we both can be right.
It's only a problem when the long termers ( value investors) join in the charge with the next weekers. (Traders)

[Valuegrowth]

An economist says while inflation has slowed, it does not mean prices are going down.……read that this morning and thought that Rob might disagree Central bankers or economists haven't found solutions to high mortgage, rent and rates inflation. Consumer spending power will go down further. Bad news for businesses.

[causecelebre]

Absolutely. I'll open a bet up to anyone, Berkshire vs Nividia over the next 10 years.

You back from the People's Socialist Republic of Canada?

No one would be dumb enough to take a bet like that. Well before then companies like the SpaceX's, Open AI's, Databrick's and the Anthropic's of this world would have IPO'd and there will be some other flavour of the day. If I want boring I buy BRK. There is a place for boring. If I want a buzz I yolo 0DTE's. Something for everyone and every time horizon

[causecelebre]

Central bankers or economists haven't found solutions to high mortgage, rent and rates inflation. Consumer spending power will go down further. Bad news for businesses.


This shoe will drop at some point

14922

[ValueNZ]

No one would be dumb enough to take a bet like that. Well before then companies like the SpaceX's, Open AI's, Databrick's and the Anthropic's of this world would have IPO'd and there will be some other flavour of the day. If I want boring I buy BRK. There is a place for boring. If I want a buzz I yolo 0DTE's. Something for everyone and every time horizon

The reality is with equity markets you need a long time horizon, preferably ten years or greater. There is a mountain of evidence to say that trying to make a quick profit by participating in speculation always ends in an inferior CAGR given enough time.

[causecelebre]

The reality is with equity markets you need a long time horizon, preferably ten years or greater. There is a mountain of evidence to say that trying to make a quick profit by participating in speculation always ends in an inferior CAGR given enough time.

Buzzkill. Sure, we all know that and I’m sure many of us are in index funds and hold boring stocks for the long term. Sometimes we need a hit of endorphins and dopamine. You keep regurgitating Benjamin Graham if it keeps you happy. I’ll keep ignoring your posts as it makes me happy

[winner69]

The US Yield Curve has now been inverted for 457 consecutive days, the 2nd longest streak in history. Two more weeks and it will become the longest inversion ever.

And still no recession

[ValueNZ]

Value,
We all have different time frames playing to different drums.
By your chosen name "Value" , suggests long term...
The people driving Nvidia SP are just looking at next week. We are both playing our own games and we both can be right.
It's only a problem when the long termers ( value investors) join in the charge with the next weekers. (Traders)

IMO the only reason any "rational" person would buy Nvidia at these prices is because they believe they can sell it to the next guy for a quick buck in a short time frame. Because anyone with half a brain can see Nvidia is not worth 1.5 trillion unless you assume absurd revenue growth and margin growth for over a decade to get an average return.

But history shows participating in a game of whose the greatest fool is a bad way to make money. In fact for the majority of people they will end up losing money, with the cash being funneled up to insiders and the lucky few who got in early and sold near the top.

[ValueNZ]

Buzzkill. Sure, we all know that and I’m sure many of us are in index funds and hold boring stocks for the long term. Sometimes we need a hit of endorphins and dopamine. You keep regurgitating Benjamin Graham if it keeps you happy. I’ll keep ignoring your posts as it makes me happy

Go to the pokies mate you'd probably get better returns than you're currently getting.

[bull....]

IMO the only reason any "rational" person would buy Nvidia at these prices is because they believe they can sell it to the next guy for a quick buck in a short time frame. Because anyone with half a brain can see Nvidia is not worth 1.5 trillion unless you assume absurd revenue growth and margin growth for over a decade to get an average return.

But history shows participating in a game of whose the greatest fool is a bad way to make money. In fact for the majority of people they will end up losing money, with the cash being funneled up to insiders and the lucky few who got in early and sold near the top.

yes playing the long game is great. eg microsoft , amazon etc made people very rich. no company could compare not even berkshire to those type of stock returns.

anyway amd and nvidia , meta at highs again :t_up: in 10 yrs who knows might have been very cheap prices in hindsight. the million dollar question

[bull....]

Absolutely. I'll open a bet up to anyone, Berkshire vs Nividia over the next 10 years.

You back from the People's Socialist Republic of Canada?

why not OCA vrs nvidia lol

[Leemsip]

Buzzkill. Sure, we all know that and I’m sure many of us are in index funds and hold boring stocks for the long term. Sometimes we need a hit of endorphins and dopamine. You keep regurgitating Benjamin Graham if it keeps you happy. I’ll keep ignoring your posts as it makes me happy

HA agree Causecelebre. Got a lot of boring stuff but need a good gamble as well to keep things interesting... Cant be 100% pure.
To quote another legend "if I see a bubble forming, I rush in and fan the flames" Soros....

[causecelebre]

HA agree Causecelebre. Got a lot of boring stuff but need a good gamble as well to keep things interesting... Cant be 100% pure.
To quote another legend "if I see a bubble forming, I rush in and fan the flames" Soros....

For sure. I'm 90% invested. 5% crypto trading, 5% stock/derivatives/metals/whatever trading.

[SailorRob]

No one would be dumb enough to take a bet like that. Well before then companies like the SpaceX's, Open AI's, Databrick's and the Anthropic's of this world would have IPO'd and there will be some other flavour of the day. If I want boring I buy BRK. There is a place for boring. If I want a buzz I yolo 0DTE's. Something for everyone and every time horizon

You would be surprised. Some would bet their lives.

[SailorRob]

Buzzkill. Sure, we all know that and I’m sure many of us are in index funds and hold boring stocks for the long term. Sometimes we need a hit of endorphins and dopamine. You keep regurgitating Benjamin Graham if it keeps you happy. I’ll keep ignoring your posts as it makes me happy

Oh man this will be fun to watch. My only issue is that via state coercion me and ValueNZ have to support this person in the future.

Sickening.

[SailorRob]

IMO the only reason any "rational" person would buy Nvidia at these prices is because they believe they can sell it to the next guy for a quick buck in a short time frame. Because anyone with half a brain can see Nvidia is not worth 1.5 trillion unless you assume absurd revenue growth and margin growth for over a decade to get an average return.

But history shows participating in a game of whose the greatest fool is a bad way to make money. In fact for the majority of people they will end up losing money, with the cash being funneled up to insiders and the lucky few who got in early and sold near the top.

Excellent response, my thoughts exactly.

[SailorRob]

why not OCA vrs nvidia lol

No problem, let's go.

OCA will destroy Berkshire I would say.

[SailorRob]

HA agree Causecelebre. Got a lot of boring stuff but need a good gamble as well to keep things interesting... Cant be 100% pure.
To quote another legend "if I see a bubble forming, I rush in and fan the flames" Soros....

Provided you understand that this 'excitement' is guaranteed to cost you a lot of money over time.

But without people like you, ValueNZ and I would be totally stuffed.

This behaviour is what creates high equity returns

[bull....]

No problem, let's go.

OCA will destroy Berkshire I would say.

guess you will be selling berkshire to buy OCA then

[bull....]

IMO the only reason any "rational" person would buy Nvidia at these prices is because they believe they can sell it to the next guy for a quick buck in a short time frame. Because anyone with half a brain can see Nvidia is not worth 1.5 trillion unless you assume absurd revenue growth and margin growth for over a decade to get an average return.

But history shows participating in a game of whose the greatest fool is a bad way to make money. In fact for the majority of people they will end up losing money, with the cash being funneled up to insiders and the lucky few who got in early and sold near the top.

maybe you should talk about how cuda and a100 or h100 and when ai is incorporated into hardware in the future which needs nvidia instead of making baseless assumptions on growth

[SailorRob]

maybe you should talk about how cuda and a100 or h100 and when ai is incorporated into hardware in the future which needs nvidia instead of making baseless assumptions on growth

As he said 'anyone with half a brain'.

[bull....]

As he said 'anyone with half a brain'.

bro i would be more worried about your half brain thinking oca is better than berkshire

[SailorRob]

bro i would be more worried about your half brain thinking oca is better than berkshire

Now Bovine Discharge, that's not at all what I said. I know literacy isn't your strong point, but get someone to read it to you.

[bull....]

Now Bovine Discharge, that's not at all what I said. I know literacy isn't your strong point, but get someone to read it to you.

lets test your half brain

nvidia 1600% gain in the last 5yrs
82% for berkshire
oca 2%

which stock would you have wished you had owned ?

[SailorRob]

lets test your half brain

nvidia 1600% gain in the last 5yrs
82% for berkshire
oca 2%

which stock would you have wished you had owned ?

I'd pick something that had a far higher return.

[bull....]

A record $6 trillion in cash on the sidelines will help the stock market in 2024, Fundstrat says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/record-6-trillion-cash-sidelines-211101016.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMnLbwj5Na0T-zU04c1nvWTciwtph_DdsdHvh9gX1rEJijQLALNF3UquEvl1FhV tLZFVVdWECVBocjJa9vE--t29rJyqZZ5K4B4JidXCi-K033uEG9vEKyevE14cKMRa_U1IHt3OBrC7njxTKUY6Zvgo_6pG wXAH7osVhCacfC0U

probably plenty on sharetrader in this group. they will have FOMU soon

[alokdhir]

A record $6 trillion in cash on the sidelines will help the stock market in 2024, Fundstrat says


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/record-6-trillion-cash-sidelines-211101016.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMnLbwj5Na0T-zU04c1nvWTciwtph_DdsdHvh9gX1rEJijQLALNF3UquEvl1FhV tLZFVVdWECVBocjJa9vE--t29rJyqZZ5K4B4JidXCi-K033uEG9vEKyevE14cKMRa_U1IHt3OBrC7njxTKUY6Zvgo_6pG wXAH7osVhCacfC0U

probably plenty on sharetrader in this group. they will have FOMU soon
t
Probably 5 out of 6 must be here ...lol ....surely not me mate ...if anything I was too early to get in ...rather wait a bit then miss the best part of bus ride

[SailorRob]

A record $6 trillion in cash on the sidelines will help the stock market in 2024, Fundstrat says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/record-6-trillion-cash-sidelines-211101016.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMnLbwj5Na0T-zU04c1nvWTciwtph_DdsdHvh9gX1rEJijQLALNF3UquEvl1FhV tLZFVVdWECVBocjJa9vE--t29rJyqZZ5K4B4JidXCi-K033uEG9vEKyevE14cKMRa_U1IHt3OBrC7njxTKUY6Zvgo_6pG wXAH7osVhCacfC0U

probably plenty on sharetrader in this group. they will have FOMU soon

So where does the 6 trillion go when stocks are bought? (brought)

If it's on 'the sidelines' now, once it's given to whoever sells you the stocks, where does it go?

Engage the half you have for once.

[Daytr]

So where does the 6 trillion go when stocks are bought? (brought)

If it's on 'the sidelines' now, once it's given to whoever sells you the stocks, where does it go?

Engage the half you have for once.

Yeah your right. Stocks or anything for that matter should never move up or down, driven by demand or supply...🙄

[SailorRob]

Yeah your right. Stocks or anything for that matter should never move up or down, driven by demand or supply...🙄

Unsurprisingly you misunderstood what I said.

Perhaps you, Day Trader, can explain what happens to the 6 trillion on the sidelines when it's invested into the equity market.

The 20 year international banking career and all thst rock star stuff.

[Daytr]

Unsurprisingly you misunderstood what I said.

Perhaps you, Day Trader, can explain what happens to the 6 trillion on the sidelines when it's invested into the equity market.

The 20 year international banking career and all thst rock star stuff.

No I didn't, it was quite simplistic & I was just responding to your misunderstanding and BS response to Bull.

[mike2020]

At a guess Elon converts it to gold. Stuffs it in a rocket back to the home planet.
Or maybe it's just sidelined elsewhere. OR it inflates everything worth buying.

[alokdhir]

At a guess Elon converts it to gold. Stuffs it in a rocket back to the home planet.
Or maybe it's just sidelined elsewhere. OR it inflates everything worth buying.

Money in cash market funds like short term treasuries etc when deployed in equity funds do create demand thus prices rise ...like otherwise ...demand and supply mismatch readjust prices till they are in balance ...like if u are a consistent buyer of KFL then u need to find some seller also till u had your pick ...market forces does that ...but perception of correct price or fair price is another matter which makes stocks rise in current kind of scenario and fall in 2022 kind of scene ....eventually ...market forces makes sure over period of time that its trading on CURRENT fair price ...like OCA is now ...opposite to many thinking otherwise ...U can fool some for some time but not always is a popular saying ...thus OCA at these prices for donkey years counts as fooling for always ....doesn't happen easily unless someone is real SPECIAL ...lol

[SailorRob]

No I didn't, it was quite simplistic & I was just responding to your misunderstanding and BS response to Bull.


Simplicity my dear fellow is the ultimate in sophistication.

Once the 6 trillion has been used to facilitate transactions in the equity market, could we then publish another headline that '6 trillion is on the sidelines'?

If not, where has it gone? It's now in the hands of the sellers and thus on the sidelines.

[SailorRob]

OCA at these prices for donkey years counts as fooling for always


I thought it was trading at $1.60 2 years ago! Something wrong with my memory.

Hopefully trades much lower than this for real donkeys years. Would like to accumulate a serious stake.

[mike2020]

Money in cash market funds like short term treasuries etc when deployed in equity funds do create demand thus prices rise ...like otherwise ...demand and supply mismatch readjust prices till they are in balance ...like if u are a consistent buyer of KFL then u need to find some seller also till u had your pick ...market forces does that ...but perception of correct price or fair price is another matter which makes stocks rise in current kind of scenario and fall in 2022 kind of scene ....eventually ...market forces makes sure over period of time that its trading on CURRENT fair price ...like OCA is now ...opposite to many thinking otherwise ...U can fool some for some time but not always is a popular saying ...thus OCA at these prices for donkey years counts as fooling for always ....doesn't happen easily unless someone is real SPECIAL ...lol

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.” That was Honest Abe, although my mother often quoted it.I wonder if the opposite situation can occur in the near future, builds take time, the so called pipeline. What happens if and when the back log is cleared and there is demand but little supply. Time for a Rachel Hunter quote?

[Daytr]

Simplicity my dear fellow is the ultimate in sophistication.

Once the 6 trillion has been used to facilitate transactions in the equity market, could we then publish another headline that '6 trillion is on the sidelines'?

If not, where has it gone? It's now in the hands of the sellers and thus on the sidelines.

Really? Wow!
Who would have known unless SailorRob thought he had to explain to the masses.
But you're right about one thing, it's simple.

[winner69]

……….wrong thread

[alokdhir]

“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.” That was Honest Abe, although my mother often quoted it.

I wonder if the opposite situation can occur in the near future, builds take time, the so called pipeline. What happens if and when the back log is cleared and there is demand but little supply. Time for a Rachel Hunter quote?

I can agree with your thoughts ...as anything can happen in this world and these days it happens fast due to advances in technology ....but I have a feeling that market is now waiting for something positive to happen first before they get interested AGAIN ...like I read the message above that it traded at $ 1.60 before so why now 70 cents with no buildup or anything positive showing on charts

SP follows EPS or expectations of higher eps ...now OCA SP I reckon will follow true or actual eps not expectations unlike stocks like MFT ...for reasons that it has failed expectations of punters many times ....while market is ready to reprice some which have better track record of fulfilling expectations

I dont hold any stake in OCA but have a keen watching interest to learn how market forces play out ....how a stock can be so promising to so many yet it just fails to lift ...maybe it will soon ...then will try to figure out why now ....that will explain a lot ...as market participants are same in all stocks and market forces also same ....understand OCA ( difficult case ) ...one will learn a lot ...

I am not into understanding its accounts or why on paper etc its a buy ...or why so many like SR are really convinced about its future ...but why this is happening to OCA for so long ...who are getting it so wrong ...the sellers or the buyers at this particular moment and why ...both have reasons or logic

[winner69]

I can agree with your thoughts ...as anything can happen in this world and these days it happens fast due to advances in technology ....but I have a feeling that market is now waiting for something positive to happen first before they get interested AGAIN ...like I read the message above that it traded at $ 1.60 before so why now 70 cents with no buildup or anything positive showing on charts

SP follows EPS or expectations of higher eps ...now OCA SP I reckon will follow true or actual eps not expectations unlike stocks like MFT ...for reasons that it has failed expectations of punters many times ....while market is ready to reprice some which have better track record of fulfilling expectations

I dont hold any stake in OCA but have a keen watching interest to learn how market forces play out ....how a stock can be so promising to so many yet it just fails to lift ...maybe it will soon ...then will try to figure out why now ....that will explain a lot ...as market participants are same in all stocks and market forces also same ....understand OCA ( difficult case ) ...one will learn a lot ...

I am not into understanding its accounts or why on paper etc its a buy ...or why so many like SR are really convinced about its future ...but why this is happening to OCA for so long ...who are getting it so wrong ...the sellers or the buyers at this particular moment and why ...both have reasons or logic

Good one alokdhir …that’s why I keep telling my mate at London School of Economics to get his behavioural finance/economic students to use the OCA thread as a great case study into punters thinking etc etc …he said yep plenty of raw material to work with there.

[bull....]

I'd pick something that had a far higher return.

couldnt bring yourself to admit bull the legend was correct lol.
nvidia provided a 11000% return if you invested $1000 at ipo or roughly 1.1m. imagine if it was 10000 at ipo that be 11 million lol insane
this folks is how you get rich.
not hoping the share price declines more of oca

[SailorRob]

https://x.com/KJHeshal/status/1747911401329557544?s=20

Kryptonite to Day Trader

[SailorRob]

couldnt bring yourself to admit bull the legend was correct lol.
nvidia provided a 11000% return if you invested $1000 at ipo or roughly 1.1m. imagine if it was 10000 at ipo that be 11 million lol insane
this folks is how you get rich.
not hoping the share price declines more of oca


Correct about what Bull?

Going back in time and picking something that did well and saying that it did better than other things?

Well I'd take Bitcoin myself.

Nvidia is pathetic compared to some other things

If we can all go back and choose then you are way wrong which is disturbing.

[SailorRob]

I can agree with your thoughts ...as anything can happen in this world and these days it happens fast due to advances in technology ....but I have a feeling that market is now waiting for something positive to happen first before they get interested AGAIN ...like I read the message above that it traded at $ 1.60 before so why now 70 cents with no buildup or anything positive showing on charts

SP follows EPS or expectations of higher eps ...now OCA SP I reckon will follow true or actual eps not expectations unlike stocks like MFT ...for reasons that it has failed expectations of punters many times ....while market is ready to reprice some which have better track record of fulfilling expectations

I dont hold any stake in OCA but have a keen watching interest to learn how market forces play out ....how a stock can be so promising to so many yet it just fails to lift ...maybe it will soon ...then will try to figure out why now ....that will explain a lot ...as market participants are same in all stocks and market forces also same ....understand OCA ( difficult case ) ...one will learn a lot ...

I am not into understanding its accounts or why on paper etc its a buy ...or why so many like SR are really convinced about its future ...but why this is happening to OCA for so long ...who are getting it so wrong ...the sellers or the buyers at this particular moment and why ...both have reasons or logic


The only reason SR is interested is because the share price is going nowhere... This is what SR looks for....

You want improving businesses and cash flows with declining share prices.

Math is hard if you left school at 15

I've already made fat stacks of cash with OCA, let's see what happens.

For now it's perfection, good improving business fundamentals (increasing intrinsic value) with a static share price.

Everyone here can only take instruction from the share price, that's all they can see or understand. There is a bot more to the game.

If it was a private business man how lost you would all be!

[SailorRob]

There is an awesome 2 crop agrarian state that you can invest all your money into and have ALL your financial assets in..

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350160439/we-do-not-produce-enough-goods-and-services-maintain-our-lifestyle

Get into it.

[SailorRob]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden

US recession 100% guaranteed within a year...

[thedrunkfish]

https://www.reuters.com/business/evergrandes-possible-liquidation-what-happens-next-2024-01-26/

Things have been looking wobbly with Evergrande for a while, will they let it collapse?

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhrRi5pan4g

[Daytr]

The only reason SR is interested is because the share price is going nowhere... This is what SR looks for....

You want improving businesses and cash flows with declining share prices.

Math is hard if you left school at 15

I've already made fat stacks of cash with OCA, let's see what happens.

For now it's perfection, good improving business fundamentals (increasing intrinsic value) with a static share price.

Everyone here can only take instruction from the share price, that's all they can see or understand. There is a bot more to the game.

If it was a private business man how lost you would all be!

Posting in the 3rd person now? Really???
It definitely fits the personality traits we see on here.

[SailorRob]

Posting in the 3rd person now? Really???
It definitely fits the personality traits we see on here.


The Sailor agrees.

[winner69]

Stats NZ overseas Merchandise data for December month

goods exports down 8.7 percent on Dec 22
goods imports down 13 percent on Dec 22

Not indicative of a booming economy

[JBmurc]

Investing During Stagflation

https://www.lynalden.com/investing-during-stagflation/

[causecelebre]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden

US recession 100% guaranteed within a year...

Why post something from 2022? Did I miss something?

[Muse]

Why post something from 2022? Did I miss something?

The recession (in America).

NZ not been so fortunate, though a lot of that is on us.

[causecelebre]

The recession (in America).

NZ not been so fortunate, though a lot of that is on us.

Which US recession? Again, did I miss it? US employment has been extremely strong and with that the consumer. The US economy equally strong. Market ripped in '23 and currently at ATH's.

Personally I don't invest heavily in NZ but that was not what the article was about

[Muse]

Which US recession? Again, did I miss it? US employment has been extremely strong and with that the consumer. The US economy equally strong. Market ripped in '23 and currently at ATH's.

Personally I don't invest heavily in NZ but that was not what the article was about

Yes - i was saying we missed the recession that was predicted as a certainty a year ago, in america.

[SailorRob]

Why post something from 2022? Did I miss something?


JH Christ dude, yes you missed something.

I was posting an article from credible sources from MORE than a year ago... that stated there was a 100% chance of a recession within the next year.

The entire point of my post was to show that... that.... come on Man....

[SailorRob]

Which US recession? Again, did I miss it? US employment has been extremely strong and with that the consumer. The US economy equally strong. Market ripped in '23 and currently at ATH's.

Personally I don't invest heavily in NZ but that was not what the article was about


Man this is the post of the year. You didn't miss the recession you missed the entire point of the exercise.

[SailorRob]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/woolworths-slashes-70-per-cent-from-new-zealand-supermarkets-value/U7FQKGV3RJAZZLGD6YJQGJEAQU/

I don't understand, Day Trader and Bovine said this was the best business in NZ. A money printing machine with massive double digit returns.

[ronaldson]

Back in NZ today at 1.52am, just inside the AIA curfew time. Whew.

I have now read the full text of David Seymour's 2024 State of the Nation address given on Sunday (you can google it).

I have high hopes that the current Government, with Luxon as CEO, will prove more aspirational than Ardern/Hipkins and deliver significantly more by the end of their term, as in my view Real Change is definitely needed in this country!

[mike2020]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/woolworths-slashes-70-per-cent-from-new-zealand-supermarkets-value/U7FQKGV3RJAZZLGD6YJQGJEAQU/

I don't understand, Day Trader and Bovine said this was the best business in NZ. A money printing machine with massive double digit returns.

I would be questioning their motives, the Aus government are looking at them and very similar here. Like a lame duck act.

[SailorRob]

I would be questioning their motives, the Aus government are looking at them and very similar here. Like a lame duck act.


Yes it's a point, however the EBIT numbers are real and the accounting conventions are very strict.

If you could just write down goodwill then you wouldn't have to pay tax.

Probably something in what you say but would be only a small % of the reality.

[Daytr]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/woolworths-slashes-70-per-cent-from-new-zealand-supermarkets-value/U7FQKGV3RJAZZLGD6YJQGJEAQU/

I don't understand, Day Trader and Bovine said this was the best business in NZ. A money printing machine with massive double digit returns.

I didn't say it was well run.

[causecelebre]

Man this is the post of the year. You didn't miss the recession you missed the entire point of the exercise.

Sarcasm is completely lost on you mate. I sometimes view ignored post on the off chance there is something interesting to read. Sadly disappointed again. Back to ignore you go

[SailorRob]

Sarcasm is completely lost on you mate. I sometimes view ignored post on the off chance there is something interesting to read. Sadly disappointed again. Back to ignore you go

Nice try bud, nice try.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zo8LcxYppvw&t=121s

[bull....]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden

US recession 100% guaranteed within a year...

the real question is do you know why it has been avoided

[bull....]

fed meeting this week
rbnz conway speech today

[bull....]

wall st hitting new highs again. apparently on news govt needs less funding.
the old saying for jan is as jan goes so goes the yr .... lets see if it rings true again

The investment research firm pointed to the positive January for stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.2% since the start of the year.
In an election year, that's actually a very rare, very bullish signal for stocks, CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall said. Election years have only started with a gain in the first month 11% of the time. And once the S&P 500 have crossed that threshold, stocks ended up gaining an average 15.6% for the year, with gains posted 100% of the time, Stovall said

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-indicator-sp500-bull-market-signal-investing-strategy-2024-1

[winner69]

fed meeting this week
rbnz conway speech today

Did Conway say anything of note?

Apparently said no policy mistakes were made that resulted in the dire inflation outcomes of the last 3 yrs. Can’t learn unless you say you were wrong

[blackcap]

wall st hitting new highs again. apparently on news govt needs less funding.
the old saying for jan is as jan goes so goes the yr .... lets see if it rings true again

The investment research firm pointed to the positive January for stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.2% since the start of the year.
In an election year, that's actually a very rare, very bullish signal for stocks, CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall said. Election years have only started with a gain in the first month 11% of the time. And once the S&P 500 have crossed that threshold, stocks ended up gaining an average 15.6% for the year, with gains posted 100% of the time, Stovall said

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-indicator-sp500-bull-market-signal-investing-strategy-2024-1


I guess the markets are anticipating a Trump win? Trump is odds on with the bookies to be the next President. As markets are forward looking and all that....

[winner69]

Inflation coming down and economy slowing but we still have a way to go. More will be said at February MPS

That was the summing up by Conway ….another RBNZ non-event by sounds of it

But I may have read it wrong