Black Monday

[SailorRob]

its the old argument of owning vrs renting argument. hope your landlord nice , do they allow pets ?

Allow anything you can negotiate in a contract. 10 years lease, 50 dogs, whatever you want. Money talks.

[alokdhir]

Its pretty annoying that this thread has been taken over by few individuals or about them rather then discuss REAL market related issues which help form consensus about future direction of NZX which was its real purpose before ....all this gibberish started ....:t_down:

[SailorRob]

Its pretty annoying that this thread has been taken over by few individuals or about them rather then discuss REAL market related issues which help form consensus about future direction of NZX which was its real purpose before ....all this gibberish started ....:t_down:

What you got to add bro?

Nobody in recorded history has had any statistically significant ability to pick the future direction of any market, so I think you're wasting your time horse.

[alokdhir]

What you got to add bro?

Nobody in recorded history has had any statistically significant ability to pick the future direction of any market, so I think you're wasting your time horse.

Bro then we shud close down this forum ...as boss SR thinks its useless to exchange meaningful thoughts as he has none ...no need reply I know your malicious responses ...in your mind u r the only one and rest all are fools ...Good luck BRO !!

[SailorRob]

Bro then we shud close down this forum ...as boss SR thinks its useless to exchange meaningful thoughts as he has none ...no need reply I know your malicious responses ...in your mind u r the only one and rest all are fools ...Good luck BRO !!

ValueNZ, Baa_Baa and Maverick aren't fools.

Nobody has meaningful thoughts about near term market directions least of all SR.

What I do know though is companies that will be worth far more in 10 years than they currently trade for.

[SailorRob]

Bro then we shud close down this forum ...as boss SR thinks its useless to exchange meaningful thoughts as he has none ...no need reply I know your malicious responses ...in your mind u r the only one and rest all are fools ...Good luck BRO !!

But share with us all your meaningful thoughts by all means. And repost any from the past that you have posted on this thread that have meaningfully contributed.

Just put all your capital into an index fund, lever it up a bit and do nothing else and you'll do far better than any other plans you have.

[bull....]

ValueNZ, Baa_Baa and Maverick aren't fools.

Nobody has meaningful thoughts about near term market directions least of all SR.

What I do know though is companies that will be worth far more in 10 years than they currently trade for.

lol nobody knows the short term but i know the long term hhahaha. my goodness did you know that actually guessing say 2 yrs ahead is actually harder than guessing 1 day ahead.

truely a legend.

[SailorRob]

lol nobody knows the short term but i know the long term hhahaha. my goodness did you know that actually guessing say 2 yrs ahead is actually harder than guessing 1 day ahead.

truely a legend.

Both equally impossible unless you're one step ahead of the herd and were taught by a bowser attendent.

[bull....]

Both equally impossible unless you're one step ahead of the herd and were taught by a bowser attendent.

see thats why the bowser attendant did better than you he had the vision too buy 5 homes with his brother 40 yrs ago and would today be a multi millionaire. your still renting :scared: with out being able to provide proof your strategy works.

[alokdhir]

With NZD rising on dropping US 10Y yield is equivalent of monetary tightening in NZ economy which shud put extra pressure on RBNZ to hurry up ...this is not good for NZ economy and its exports earnings when demand is already slacking ....I reckon or for see that rates will drop much faster then market anticipating at the moment ...NZX listed bluechips and well managed companies with inelastic demand etc can still do very well ....2024 can be stellar for NZ markets

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/the-new-zealand-sharemarket-looks-well-positioned-in-2024-mark-lister/45SBMMECHFALFCYKCK6W47WMYQ/

[SailorRob]

see thats why the bowser attendant did better than you he had the vision too buy 5 homes with his brother 40 yrs ago and would today be a multi millionaire. your still renting :scared: with out being able to provide proof your strategy works.

Never paid a cent of rent in my life.

He made a terrible decision, less than 2% real return over 40 years plus maintenance etc.

He should have invested in the SP500.

Guess that's why he was pumping gas?

[SailorRob]

With NZD rising on dropping US 10Y yield is equivalent of monetary tightening in NZ economy which shud put extra pressure on RBNZ to hurry up ...this is not good for NZ economy and its exports earnings when demand is already slacking ....I reckon or for see that rates will drop much faster then market anticipating at the moment ...NZX listed bluechips and well managed companies with inelastic demand etc can still do very well ....2024 can be stellar for NZ markets

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/the-new-zealand-sharemarket-looks-well-positioned-in-2024-mark-lister/45SBMMECHFALFCYKCK6W47WMYQ/

What is the market anticipating? It's already anticipating far faster than the Kauri tree, you mean faster again?

[SailorRob]

With NZD rising on dropping US 10Y yield is equivalent of monetary tightening in NZ economy which shud put extra pressure on RBNZ to hurry up ...this is not good for NZ economy and its exports earnings when demand is already slacking ....I reckon or for see that rates will drop much faster then market anticipating at the moment ...NZX listed bluechips and well managed companies with inelastic demand etc can still do very well ....2024 can be stellar for NZ markets

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/the-new-zealand-sharemarket-looks-well-positioned-in-2024-mark-lister/45SBMMECHFALFCYKCK6W47WMYQ/

What is Listers prior track record for calling the market over the next 12 months.

Regarding your observations and predictions, what are you doing about it? If you have a different view than the market, you can profit a lot if you're correct.

What are your intentions?

[bull....]

With NZD rising on dropping US 10Y yield is equivalent of monetary tightening in NZ economy which shud put extra pressure on RBNZ to hurry up ...this is not good for NZ economy and its exports earnings when demand is already slacking ....I reckon or for see that rates will drop much faster then market anticipating at the moment ...NZX listed bluechips and well managed companies with inelastic demand etc can still do very well ....2024 can be stellar for NZ markets

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/the-new-zealand-sharemarket-looks-well-positioned-in-2024-mark-lister/45SBMMECHFALFCYKCK6W47WMYQ/

3 yrs of poor returns for nz market be interesting if 2024 is better. up against headwinds though at least first half i reckon

you might be right in your thinking second half. which is my opinion

wonder if ORR was saying this when he was meeting with luxon

High immigration linked to inflation says BoC Deputy Governor


https://tnc.news/2023/12/09/immigration-inflation-boc/

anyway im thinking must off as luxon acknowledged immigration was unsustainable at current levels. so less immigration ? or just keep rolling it in like they always do

I see luxon also saying next yr going to tough

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon warns Kiwis battling the cost of living crisis are going to continue feeling pain next year as he believes it’s going to take time to fix the economy.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/12/cost-of-living-prime-minister-christopher-luxon-points-finger-at-labour-government-for-decline-in-gdp.html

Blame Reserve Bank for home loan rates holding firm, economist says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301028813/blame-reserve-bank-for-home-loan-rates-holding-firm-economist-says

guess he's right public sector cuts will depress spending and if they cut back govt spending a little that depress the economy pretty quick combined if they do with less immigration and banks holding rates higher in the face of collapsing swap rates. so first 6 months rough maybe better after that

[Daytr]

A report on RNZ this morning I half caught I think said NZ ownership of the domestic stockmarket was at an all low at what I think they said was 37%.

[alokdhir]

3 yrs of poor returns for nz market be interesting if 2024 is better. up against headwinds though at least first half i reckon

you might be right in your thinking second half. which is my opinion

wonder if ORR was saying this when he was meeting with luxon

High immigration linked to inflation says BoC Deputy Governor


https://tnc.news/2023/12/09/immigration-inflation-boc/

anyway im thinking must off as luxon acknowledged immigration was unsustainable at current levels. so less immigration ? or just keep rolling it in like they always do

I see luxon also saying next yr going to tough

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon warns Kiwis battling the cost of living crisis are going to continue feeling pain next year as he believes it’s going to take time to fix the economy.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/12/cost-of-living-prime-minister-christopher-luxon-points-finger-at-labour-government-for-decline-in-gdp.html

Blame Reserve Bank for home loan rates holding firm, economist says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301028813/blame-reserve-bank-for-home-loan-rates-holding-firm-economist-says

guess he's right public sector cuts will depress spending and if they cut back govt spending a little that depress the economy pretty quick combined if they do with less immigration and banks holding rates higher in the face of collapsing swap rates. so first 6 months rough maybe better after that

U give too much weightage to Govt actions on real economy outcomes ...Yes labour did inflate it by spending like drunken sailor but main reasons were super low rates ...now is the opposite going to happen ...high rates plus Govt trying to control spending will make economy wobble very very fast . I wont be surprised that we end the year 2024 at 4-4.5% OCR with clear path to 2.5% on horizon ...can be more faster downside but not easy to expect it at present ...will evolve over time but path is surely down FAST

Secondly immigration is not bad for country ...thats sorting the labour problem thus Inflation problem ...only helping boost housing but thats acceptable at present ....I will expect it to keep going till we are flooded with cheap labour getting paid less then minimum wages ...lol ...already can see its good side ...all companies have restored all labour intensive customer service frills ...https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125717/bnz-head-research-stephen-toplis-nz-economy-bouncing-along-bottom-and-what-expect

[alokdhir]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301028813/blame-reserve-bank-for-home-loan-rates-holding-firm-economist-says

[SailorRob]

3 yrs of poor returns for nz market be interesting if 2024 is better. up against headwinds though at least first half i reckon

you might be right in your thinking second half. which is my opinion

wonder if ORR was saying this when he was meeting with luxon

High immigration linked to inflation says BoC Deputy Governor


https://tnc.news/2023/12/09/immigration-inflation-boc/

anyway im thinking must off as luxon acknowledged immigration was unsustainable at current levels. so less immigration ? or just keep rolling it in like they always do

I see luxon also saying next yr going to tough

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon warns Kiwis battling the cost of living crisis are going to continue feeling pain next year as he believes it’s going to take time to fix the economy.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/12/cost-of-living-prime-minister-christopher-luxon-points-finger-at-labour-government-for-decline-in-gdp.html

Blame Reserve Bank for home loan rates holding firm, economist says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301028813/blame-reserve-bank-for-home-loan-rates-holding-firm-economist-says

guess he's right public sector cuts will depress spending and if they cut back govt spending a little that depress the economy pretty quick combined if they do with less immigration and banks holding rates higher in the face of collapsing swap rates. so first 6 months rough maybe better after that


NZ market traded where it is today, 1680 days ago. Which is more than 3 years.

During this time there has been a government measured 22.1% inflation, this is a 4.5% CAGR.

So how far back do you have to go inflation adjusted to be breaking even now? Many, many years.

[bull....]

NZ market traded where it is today, 1680 days ago. Which is more than 3 years.

During this time there has been a government measured 22.1% inflation, this is a 4.5% CAGR.

So how far back do you have to go inflation adjusted to be breaking even now? Many, many years.

3yrs just of top of my head.
anyway individual stocks are key ie stock picking is more crucial and can mean if you pick the right stock you will way out perform an index. ie mft has way outperformed nz market last 20 yrs even better than sp500. also like microsoft etc

anyway i consider index returns generally are a waste of time to measure your performance against. most people should just have a goal of how many dollars they want for retirement and then work out what returns each yr are needed to get to that goal and dont measure yourself against a index its pointless and really means little except to fund managers and brokers who want you to churn into the best performing fund for next yr.

[SailorRob]

3yrs just of top of my head.
anyway individual stocks are key ie stock picking is more crucial and can mean if you pick the right stock you will way out perform an index. ie mft has way outperformed nz market last 20 yrs even better than sp500. also like microsoft etc

anyway i consider index returns generally are a waste of time to measure your performance against. most people should just have a goal of how many dollars they want for retirement and then work out what returns each yr are needed to get to that goal and dont measure yourself against a index its pointless and really means little except to fund managers and brokers who want you to churn into the best performing fund for next yr.


You once again miss the entire point.

Index returns are what you can get guaranteed and for a very low fee. If you can't beat that return then you are wasting money.

So if you continually underperform the index you will make way more money by giving up.

If you work out how many dollars you need for retirement and that can be achieved easily by index returns then probably the best course of action.

You have messed up massively again, need to remove 11 screens and FOCUS.

[bull....]

You once again miss the entire point.

Index returns are what you can get guaranteed and for a very low fee. If you can't beat that return then you are wasting money.

So if you continually underperform the index you will make way more money by giving up.

If you work out how many dollars you need for retirement and that can be achieved easily by index returns then probably the best course of action.

You have messed up massively again, need to remove 11 screens and FOCUS.

no you got it wrong again. how many times do i have to show you that article which proves index returns have only out performed once in a 100 yrs. if you take most peoples serious investing timespan is 20yrs odd. the article proves the point that investing in an index does not generally work for most people.
the last 20yrs is the only time its been good

[SailorRob]

no you got it wrong again. how many times do i have to show you that article which proves index returns have only out performed once in a 100 yrs. if you take most peoples serious investing timespan is 20yrs odd. the article proves the point that investing in an index does not generally work for most people.
the last 20yrs is the only time its been good


The last 20 years it has been AFWUL

Among the lowest 20 year returns in history...

Remember that for 13 of those 20 years the return was ZERO.

Investing in and index works for everyone...

This is why it is the advice Buffett gives to everyone... Over his own company.

But you know better than Buffett as you read some article years ago that proves you are correct.

If your Bowser pumping role model had just invested in the SP500 40 years ago....

[SailorRob]

how many times do i have to show you that article which proves index returns have only out performed once in a 100 yrs.


Out performed what Bull??

How can index returns outperform??

What are you on about, you cannot be serious with that statement?

[bull....]

Out performed what Bull??

How can index returns outperform??

What are you on about, you cannot be serious with that statement?

lol should have been they have only been a good investment once in a 100 yrs. im busy making lots of xmas spending money so rushing my posts

[SailorRob]

lol should have been they have only been a good investment once in a 100 yrs. im busy making lots of xmas spending money so rushing my posts


Right, so making an investment in the general market has only been good once in 100 years.

Sounds very plausible.

One step ahead of the Herd.

[bull....]

Right, so making an investment in the general market has only been good once in 100 years.

Sounds very plausible.

One step ahead of the Herd.

you are the epitome of my example.

you dont invest in an index fund yourself
you invest in a few stocks which you know will outperform index returns

[bull....]

The last 20 years it has been AFWUL

Among the lowest 20 year returns in history...

Remember that for 13 of those 20 years the return was ZERO.

Investing in and index works for everyone...

This is why it is the advice Buffett gives to everyone... Over his own company.

But you know better than Buffett as you read some article years ago that proves you are correct.

If your Bowser pumping role model had just invested in the SP500 40 years ago....

what are you on about i said last 20 yrs good. only time you didnt read statement as usual.
anyway im going your wasting my trading time

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/12/reserve-bank-could-pivot-to-interest-rate-cuts-from-july-bnz.html

[SailorRob]

you are the epitome of my example.

you dont invest in an index fund yourself
you invest in a few stocks which you know will outperform index returns

I don't know anything except that we'll over 90% of professional investors cannot beat the index.

So how could I hope to?

[Bobdn]

US large Cap Growth (USG) hit a new all time high today. Up 47 per cent year to date. *Sigh* wish I was smart enough to pick stocks, sick of having to use these boring old ETFs. Still, we can't all be stock pickers. I'm happy to work within my limitations.

[Rawz]

US large Cap Growth (USG) hit a new all time high today. Up 47 per cent year to date. *Sigh* wish I was smart enough to pick stocks, sick of having to use these boring old ETFs. Still, we can't all be stock pickers. I'm happy to work within my limitations.

Amazing that it is at an all time high just as rates are about to cycle back down over the years ahead.

[SailorRob]

Amazing that it is at an all time high just as rates are about to cycle back down over the years ahead.

You know the future direction of interest rates?

The first person in all of recorded history, congratulations.

[Rawz]

You know the future direction of interest rates?

The first person in all of recorded history, congratulations.

Fed said rate cuts next year so im kinda cheating lol

[bull....]

I don't know anything except that we'll over 90% of professional investors cannot beat the index.

So how could I hope to?

your obviously talking about trading otherwise what a load of rubbish. many long term investors beat the index , just need the right stock ( many could name but here a few

eg monster beverage 39% annualized return

apple 37%
nvidia 33%
etc etc way better than sp 500 index at say 10% annualized

long term stock picking make you way richer

[bull....]

US large Cap Growth (USG) hit a new all time high today. Up 47 per cent year to date. *Sigh* wish I was smart enough to pick stocks, sick of having to use these boring old ETFs. Still, we can't all be stock pickers. I'm happy to work within my limitations.

great returns bob , you must be very happy. obviously these etf's meet your goals and suit your personality

[Bobdn]

Thanks Bull but overall I'm only up 15 per cent ytd, net of fees and taxes. I have that ETF but also others like NZG and Australian resources. Plus some bonds that have only recently done ok. The ASX has picked up steam but is still only 8 per cent up ytd. So throw it all together and its 15 percent.

15 per cent is more than enough to keep me in Home Brand coffee and Value milk.

NZG - are NZ shares still in an actual bear market? It looks that way.

[SailorRob]

Fed said rate cuts next year so im kinda cheating lol

Historically, how have rates actually followed what the fed has said they will do?

[SailorRob]

your obviously talking about trading otherwise what a load of rubbish. many long term investors beat the index , just need the right stock ( many could name but here a few

eg monster beverage 39% annualized return

apple 37%
nvidia 33%
etc etc way better than sp 500 index at say 10% annualized

long term stock picking make you way richer

Can you name 5 of these many investors?

And can you point me to data that proves I'm wrong that over 90% don't? As this is a very well known statistic. Virtually everyone knows this...

[SailorRob]

Fed said rate cuts next year so im kinda cheating lol

Didn't our governer say to the banks to prepare their systems for negative rates in 2019??

Check out the historical dot plots of fed speak vs what actually happens...

Learn people learn as much as you can.

[Rawz]

Didn't our governer say to the banks to prepare their systems for negative rates in 2019??

Check out the historical dot plots of fed speak vs what actually happens...

Learn people learn as much as you can.

Still wait they say moves rates. Swaps have dropped 100 points in last week n a bit

[bull....]

Can you name 5 of these many investors?

And can you point me to data that proves I'm wrong that over 90% don't? As this is a very well known statistic. Virtually everyone knows this...

sure , bull and 4 of his bowser mates. anyway i doubt your find data on unknown individuals many probably who beat index's
most data is on fund managers who are all mostly biased to only meet there benchmark and bonus criteria nothing else so all rather meaning less comparing them in data.

only important thing is your money goal and what return each yr to acheive it. all else is noise

[SailorRob]

sure , bull and 4 of his bowser mates. anyway i doubt your find data on unknown individuals many probably who beat index's
most data is on fund managers who are all mostly biased to only meet there benchmark and bonus criteria nothing else so all rather meaning less comparing them in data.

only important thing is your money goal and what return each yr to acheive it. all else is noise

Hmmm I don't recall discussing unknown individuals. Pretty sure I said professional investors.

If your goal is to get from A to B but you unnecessarily climb a mountain each day to get there as you don't understand there is a much easier way then it's not noise...

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/interest-rates-anz-cuts-mortgage-and-deposit-rates/DZYZ3B355NBYZMI3LPIV6HY7WE/

Is this the start of the flood gates or will remain a trickle is the only question in my mind ...

[SailorRob]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/interest-rates-anz-cuts-mortgage-and-deposit-rates/DZYZ3B355NBYZMI3LPIV6HY7WE/

Is this the start of the flood gates or will remain a trickle is the only question in my mind ...


Never be too sure of some future macroeconomic event.

It's not what you don't know that will hurt you, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

If I had to bet I'd be inclined to go with you but I have absolutely no idea.

[bull....]

In a pre-Christmas move, our largest bank trims some key mortgage rates, and some not-so-key term deposit offers. Given where wholesale rates have been trending, this may be the start of a move down across the board

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/125777/pre-christmas-move-our-largest-bank-trims-some-key-mortgage-rates-and-some

the peak in term deposit Rates is here

although ANZ dropped term deposits rates more than they dropped mtge rates lol. a few more dollars to the banks bottom line

[alokdhir]

Can easily be June or earlier !!







"Q3 GDP and revisions show the economy has been losing momentum to a greater extent than envisaged


•
Inflation pressures will follow suit


•
Accordingly, we now expect the RBNZ will first cut the OCR in August 2024








We have brought forward our forecast for the first OCR cut to August 2024, six months earlier than our previous view. We think the recent GDP release was significant: it showed momentum in the economy is grinding to a halt more rapidly than anticipated. We expect weakness will continue into 2024. If it does, inflation pressures are likely to reduce quicker than we had been previously thinking."

Although current headline inflation is still high, we are also seeing encouraging signs in recent monthly pricing data that show inflation is falling slightly quicker than the RBNZ had recently been expecting. And while there will be pockets of migration-driven concern for the RBNZ, such as rents and any potential rebound in construction costs, we expect that by the second half of next year the inflation outlook will be comfortable enough for the RBNZ to cut.

[SailorRob]

https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/1737138805654577394?s=20

Plus a constant stream of inventions that the entire world desires...

Meanwhile we have milk powder and Chinese Gooseberries.

[winner69]

Hey Rob …..you up at Opua at the moment?

[SailorRob]

Hey Rob …..you up at Opua at the moment?


Negative, why do you ask?

I've been off the Sea for a couple of years, currently refitting a new to me yacht.

[Muse]

Hmmm I don't recall discussing unknown individuals. Pretty sure I said professional investors.

If your goal is to get from A to B but you unnecessarily climb a mountain each day to get there as you don't understand there is a much easier way then it's not noise...

There will most likely be some active funds / hedge funds what have you that beat the benchmark but the question is are they comparing the right benchmark and over what time period. It would be easy to pick and choose and put one's performance in a favourable light. And even then, say, they have outperformed a broadly acceptable index and over a consistent period, how does luck factor into it, particularly w/ respect to future returns.

Not a perfect example but one that stuck with me from school.

Imagine a thousand people compete in a coin flipping contest to see who can get heads consistently the most.

After the first flip, ~500 people would be out.

By the fifth flip, statistically 97% people would be out and 3.13% (50%^5) would have flipped heads 5 times in a row. So a lucky 31 people who appear to be masters in their trade, outperforming the lesser 969 mere mortals. People flock around them to see what it was they did to make it happen. Was it the custom suit they wore, the way they polished their nails before flipping, the good luck charm they wore around their neck, or the way they flicked their thumb that made it so.

5 more flips later - getting to 10 flips in a row - only one person stands tall - flipping 10 heads in a row (50%^10 x 1000). All 999 fell by the wayside. The champion is crowned and all are in awe. Go on - flip one more for good fun - you just did 10 in a row surely the odds are a banger for another heads. After all, they've beaten the odds, and over a long period of time. But in reality the chance of flipping another heads is just 50%.

Point being there are thousands of active mutual funds, hedge funds, and so on globally, and each probably managing a handful or two of products - so a huge number of products, and statistically a good chance at least some will have outperformed the index. But is that just luck or skill? Hard to know, IMO.

[SailorRob]

There will most likely be some active funds / hedge funds what have you that beat the benchmark but the question is are they comparing the right benchmark and over what time period. It would be easy to pick and choose and put one's performance in a favourable light. And even then, say, they have outperformed a broadly acceptable index and over a consistent period, how does luck factor into it, particularly w/ respect to future returns.

Not a perfect example but one that stuck with me from school.

Imagine a thousand people compete in a coin flipping contest to see who can get heads consistently the most.

After the first flip, ~500 people would be out.

By the fifth flip, statistically 97% people would be out and 3.13% (50%^5) would have flipped heads 5 times in a row. So a lucky 31 people who appear to be masters in their trade, outperforming the lesser 969 mere mortals. People flock around them to see what it was they did to make it happen. Was it the custom suit they wore, the way they polished their nails before flipping, the good luck charm they wore around their neck, or the way they flicked their thumb that made it so.

5 more flips later - getting to 10 flips in a row - only one person stands tall - flipping 10 heads in a row (50%^10 x 1000). All 999 fell by the wayside. The champion is crowned and all are in awe. Go on - flip one more for good fun - you just did 10 in a row surely the odds are a banger for another heads. After all, they've beaten the odds, and over a long period of time. But in reality the chance of flipping another heads is just 50%.

Point being there are thousands of active mutual funds, hedge funds, and so on globally, and each probably managing a handful or two of products - so a huge number of products, and statistically a good chance at least some will have outperformed the index. But is that just luck or skill? Hard to know, IMO.


Exactly right.

But of a sample size of a million people, if ALL the pro coin tossers wore the exact same custom suit and nail polish then we would know something was up.

Here (https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf) Warren explains it perfectly and even uses similar argument to you but to prove the opposite. (https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf)

What you say is true but you need to know and be able to filter it out.

The only benchmark that matters is the S&P500 for equities or if you are a weakling you can use some MCSI global rubbish or NZ crap. Time frame has to be well over a full cycle, 15 years minimum and preferably 20 or 30 years. But a massive outperformance over 13 or so years is also valid like Buffett partnership.

What you point out with different products is very valid as well. If you manage more than one then get off the Grass. Like Dartr having many different 'stratagies' and telling us about the one that's done 15% for 8 years... Well bro what about the others.

[Muse]

Exactly right.

But of a sample size of a million people, if ALL the pro coin tossers wore the exact same custom suit and nail polish then we would know something was up.

Here (https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf) Warren explains it perfectly and even uses similar argument to you but to prove the opposite. (https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf)

What you say is true but you need to know and be able to filter it out.

The only benchmark that matters is the S&P500 for equities or if you are a weakling you can use some MCSI global rubbish or NZ crap. Time frame has to be well over a full cycle, 15 years minimum and preferably 20 or 30 years. But a massive outperformance over 13 or so years is also valid like Buffett partnership.

What you point out with different products is very valid as well. If you manage more than one then get off the Grass. Like Dartr having many different 'stratagies' and telling us about the one that's done 15% for 8 years... Well bro what about the others.

Thanks I'll have a read of the article.

I wasn't ruling out the possibility that a select few who outperform the index do so out of skill, just highlighting the statistical scale that luck plays into it for the many that do.

And as you say - given a large enough sample set of those who did / flipped heads x # of times - the goal is to see what common tools where employed by those who outperformed the index.

You obviously spend a lot of time doing that in your own right, and sadly there is a whole industry of people who do it professionally. "Fund of funds" - professionals who raise capital from investors promising they are experts at finding fund managers who can consistently achieve outperformance - and investing said funds into them. And they often times do find find those good managers, but by the time they've had their cut the net returns back to their investors are below benchmark.

Back to the beginning premise - I think cohorts matter. A fund that launches in a period of turmoil - say post GFC or months following the covid outbreak - with a unique strategy (say going hard on crypto or on respiratory devices before closing out soon, for instance) are often able to achieve returns that are very high in an absolute sense (and impress a lot of people who don't benchmark), and then also beat the S&P500 over the long term. But are they repeatable - that's the question. So yeah a 10-20 window is obviously one you have to consider, but to filter out that luck / non repeatable performance possibility, you need to consider how did it go (relative to the benchmark) in the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years - not just from inception. Because those defining early moments - which could be blind luck or non repeatable - can also set up and crystalize its long term performance above benchmark even if its last few years have been below par and possibly set to continue. But for those that outperform over the long term - AND also in a reasonable proportion of recent years - its worth considering if they have something more than just luck.

Probably should have read your article first before responding but will put it on my holiday reading list.

[SailorRob]

Thanks I'll have a read of the article.

I wasn't ruling out the possibility that a select few who outperform the index do so out of skill, just highlighting the statistical scale that luck plays into it for the many that do.

And as you say - given a large enough sample set of those who did / flipped heads x # of times - the goal is to see what common tools where employed by those who outperformed the index.

You obviously spend a lot of time doing that in your own right, and sadly there is a whole industry of people who do it professionally. "Fund of funds" - professionals who raise capital from investors promising they are experts at finding fund managers who can consistently achieve outperformance - and investing said funds into them. And they often times do find find those good managers, but by the time they've had their cut the net returns back to their investors are below benchmark.

Back to the beginning premise - I think cohorts matter. A fund that launches in a period of turmoil - say post GFC or months following the covid outbreak - with a unique strategy (say going hard on crypto or on respiratory devices before closing out soon, for instance) are often able to achieve returns that are very high in an absolute sense (and impress a lot of people who don't benchmark), and then also beat the S&P500 over the long term. But are they repeatable - that's the question. So yeah a 10-20 window is obviously one you have to consider, but to filter out that luck / non repeatable performance possibility, you need to consider how did it go (relative to the benchmark) in the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years - not just from inception. Because those defining early moments - which could be blind luck or non repeatable - can also set up and crystalize its long term performance above benchmark even if its last few years have been below par and possibly set to continue. But for those that outperform over the long term - AND also in a reasonable proportion of recent years - its worth considering if they have something more than just luck.

Probably should have read your article first before responding but will put it on my holiday reading list.


An exceptional post. You will enjoy the Buffett article immensely, please post or PM after you have read it. You have a level of understanding of this topic that very few do.

Regarding the 'fund of funds' if you are not already aware, you should investigate Buffetts bet for charity against this exact set up - really worth studying.

The other thing with what you mention with high performing managers being sought out by 'funds of funds', by the time they get the extra money to manage their original strategy often doesn't work with the larger capital base. Munger in his very last podcast pontificated about this, saying that they should be measured on their dollar returns as they have outstanding performance in the early days with little capital and then when they have lots of money they lose it but still have an incredible record, where net they actually lost money overall.

Also I'd like to mention the opposite effect of the one you highlighted, those such as Einhorn who have underperformed the recent bull market dramatically as have many great investors who have still got incredible 25 and 30 year records. So you could easily underperform for 8 years or more and also be one of the worlds greatest investors.

All this said, I don't think it will be too difficult to outperform the S&P500 over the next decade as the market has become so bifurcated and the multiples on the index are double what you can easily construct a decent portfolio of companies with EPS growth higher than the index. For example Berkshire trades for 13 x earnings and retains 100% at a return of 10-12% and is very sustainable, accounting is honest and virtually no write downs. So EPS is growing far faster than the index and starting multiple is far lower. Mathematically it's hard to see how the index could outperform unless the PE went absolutely sky high.

Yes I spend a huge amount of time working out who is actually worth following and taking into account everything you have highlighted and also making sure I understand how they have achieved their returns, I then shamelessly use these people for idea generation.

Here is one I am currently investigating - 20% after fees CAGR for 25 years! https://www.turtlecreek.ca/our-returns/ and more amazing still is in 2011 they had a 13 year record of 24% CAGR against ZERO for the market (SP500 in Canadian $).

13 years of 24% CAGR vs ZERO is something else, and then to continue it over the following bull market...

[winner69]

Big afternoon tumble on SPX last night

Suppose profit taking before Xmas break for big guys

[alokdhir]

Big afternoon tumble on SPX last night

Suppose profit taking before Xmas break for big guys

More like giving chance to left out people to join in ...most of the pundits were negative equity for year 2023 ...now they dont know what HIT them ...Only one funny Indian Professor of some Uni and Lee were the Bullish on CNBC since the start of the year ...both had around 4600 target ...which is very nicely met ...but when they said that in early 2023 ...all used to laugh ...guess who is laughing now ...one who said rates super higher for super longer and deep recessions etc ...maybe that or less then expected growth will come in 2024 ...who knows ...but try to stay contrarian on a big market like USA can work wonders if u turn out to be right ...All know market rewards few and takes from most ...talking about trading not investing here

[alokdhir]

Any guesses for stocks coming out as Broker's Picks this weekend ? MFT ?? SUM ??

[Ferg]

Thanks for the link to the Buffett article SailorRob. Good refresher reading.

For those looking to calculate inflation adjusted values, this is a handy online calculator:
https://www.inflationtool.com/new-zealand-dollar/1956-to-present-value?year2=2023&frequency=yearly

And this tool helps with calculating S&P returns over whatever time period you want:
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/

[SailorRob]

Thanks for the link to the Buffett article SailorRob. Good refresher reading.

For those looking to calculate inflation adjusted values, this is a handy online calculator:
https://www.inflationtool.com/new-zealand-dollar/1956-to-present-value?year2=2023&frequency=yearly

And this tool helps with calculating S&P returns over whatever time period you want:
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/


Excellent resources, suggest everyone spends some time playing with each.

Quite funny looking at the inflation chart that so much time is spent panicking about deflation! Orr in 2019 was telling the banks to prepare their systems for negative rates remember.

A few minutes with the S&P500 calculator will soon reveal that Bull sating that there has only been one time in the last 100 years that it paid to be invested in the index is extremely laughable (surprise surprise).

[bull....]

Excellent resources, suggest everyone spends some time playing with each.

Quite funny looking at the inflation chart that so much time is spent panicking about deflation! Orr in 2019 was telling the banks to prepare their systems for negative rates remember.

A few minutes with the S&P500 calculator will soon reveal that Bull sating that there has only been one time in the last 100 years that it paid to be invested in the index is extremely laughable (surprise surprise).

bending the truth again. its when you start and finish and any neg yrs in the mix thats makes the difference.
the fund managers you keep parroting on about are not special they invested in the period in the last 20 odd yrs where just about any monkey could have done well.

you need to get back to discovering buffett secret sauce. ill give you a clue cause you are having a bit of a problem discovering it.
As ben graham once said that in investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

[alokdhir]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/505280/warning-to-shareholders-over-giving-away-nz-companies-too-cheaply

Why we need get warning ? Do we not value them properly ...maybe lack of liquidity of NZX is creating undervalued companies ...

KFL which hold NZ's top blue chips like MFT / FPH / IFT / SUM / AIA is trading at almost 10% discount to its recent NAV ...that too at a time when rates path is about to reverse if not yet reversed in some people's mind ...amazing ....also how I wish I had more cash to cash on this opportunity

[Daytr]

There will most likely be some active funds / hedge funds what have you that beat the benchmark but the question is are they comparing the right benchmark and over what time period. It would be easy to pick and choose and put one's performance in a favourable light. And even then, say, they have outperformed a broadly acceptable index and over a consistent period, how does luck factor into it, particularly w/ respect to future returns.

Not a perfect example but one that stuck with me from school.

Imagine a thousand people compete in a coin flipping contest to see who can get heads consistently the most.

After the first flip, ~500 people would be out.

By the fifth flip, statistically 97% people would be out and 3.13% (50%^5) would have flipped heads 5 times in a row. So a lucky 31 people who appear to be masters in their trade, outperforming the lesser 969 mere mortals. People flock around them to see what it was they did to make it happen. Was it the custom suit they wore, the way they polished their nails before flipping, the good luck charm they wore around their neck, or the way they flicked their thumb that made it so.

5 more flips later - getting to 10 flips in a row - only one person stands tall - flipping 10 heads in a row (50%^10 x 1000). All 999 fell by the wayside. The champion is crowned and all are in awe. Go on - flip one more for good fun - you just did 10 in a row surely the odds are a banger for another heads. After all, they've beaten the odds, and over a long period of time. But in reality the chance of flipping another heads is just 50%.

Point being there are thousands of active mutual funds, hedge funds, and so on globally, and each probably managing a handful or two of products - so a huge number of products, and statistically a good chance at least some will have outperformed the index. But is that just luck or skill? Hard to know, IMO.

Yeah it's just luck.
No research or skill involved at all, let alone inside information which is rife in the industry.

[SailorRob]

Yeah it's just luck.
No research or skill involved at all, let alone inside information which is rife in the industry.

So far over the top of its head can't even see it!

[SailorRob]

bending the truth again. its when you start and finish and any neg yrs in the mix thats makes the difference.
the fund managers you keep parroting on about are not special they invested in the period in the last 20 odd yrs where just about any monkey could have done well.

you need to get back to discovering buffett secret sauce. ill give you a clue cause you are having a bit of a problem discovering it.
As ben graham once said that in investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

So far over the top of its head can't even see it!

[SailorRob]

bending the truth again. its when you start and finish and any neg yrs in the mix thats makes the difference.
the fund managers you keep parroting on about are not special they invested in the period in the last 20 odd yrs where just about any monkey could have done well.

you need to get back to discovering buffett secret sauce. ill give you a clue cause you are having a bit of a problem discovering it.
As ben graham once said that in investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.

Last 20 years actually the most difficult period to outperform in history, but in bull language it's the opposite.

The period he actually means is 2009 through 2020. Hardly the last 20 years. And even this period was practically impossible to outperform if you had any focus on value investing.

Remember the index was good only once in the last 100 years 🤔🤣

[bull....]

Last 20 years actually the most difficult period to outperform in history, but in bull language it's the opposite.

The period he actually means is 2009 through 2020. Hardly the last 20 years. And even this period was practically impossible to outperform if you had any focus on value investing.

Remember the index was good only once in the last 100 years 樂藍

lol bending the truth again woithout addressing the point. i must get a new keypad for xmas it keeps leaving out letters anyway what about addressing the point about its when you start and finish and add in some negative yrs determines how well you do .
actually it was easy to do better than sp500 last 20yrs just buy some tech stocks, buffett failed to this thats why he struggled. stock piucking wins always thats what determines good fund managers from bad but in the last 20 yrs odd most fund managers should have done well by just index hugging.

[Joshuatree]

Any guesses for stocks coming out as Broker's Picks this weekend ? MFT ?? SUM ??

Can tell you what won't be ,CRP and NTL
(Fool me once Shame on you,fool me twice...)

[SailorRob]

lol bending the truth again woithout addressing the point. i must get a new keypad for xmas it keeps leaving out letters anyway what about addressing the point about its when you start and finish and add in some negative yrs determines how well you do .
actually it was easy to do better than sp500 last 20yrs just buy some tech stocks, buffett failed to this thats why he struggled. stock piucking wins always thats what determines good fund managers from bad but in the last 20 yrs odd most fund managers should have done well by just index hugging.

No, just but bitcoin. Was that easy.

THAT is why buffett struggled so much. No bitcoin.

Well done bull.

[bull....]

No, just but bitcoin. Was that easy.

THAT is why buffett struggled so much. No bitcoin.

Well done bull.

i said tech stocks not bitcoin. anyway thats why your portfolio has underperformed. your so heavily weighted to berkshire that your portfolio has massively underperformed most monkeys the last 20yrs. you would have been better off being in that fund manager you mentioned.

the fact you failed to see that size would impact buffett performance going forward is a fail on your part.

[bull....]

ASB said it had also adjusted some of its long-term deposits, lowering the 24 month term deposit to 5.8% and all terms between 36 and 60 months to 5.5%.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301031399/asb-next-major-bank-to-cut-home-loan-interest-rates

better lock in those high yielding stocks with safe dividends

[bull....]

No, just but bitcoin. Was that easy.

THAT is why buffett struggled so much. No bitcoin.

Well done bull.

do you even know or have an guess as to why buffett didnt buy tech stocks

[SailorRob]

do you even know or have an guess as to why buffett didnt buy tech stocks

Yes I know exactly why... Not hard to figure out.

Berkshire earnings per share destroyed market over all time periods, particularly last 10 years... He can't control votes, only weights...

[SailorRob]

i said tech stocks not bitcoin. anyway thats why your portfolio has underperformed. your so heavily weighted to berkshire that your portfolio has massively underperformed most monkeys the last 20yrs. you would have been better off being in that fund manager you mentioned.

the fact you failed to see that size would impact buffett performance going forward is a fail on your part.

Massively underperformed is a understatement, I'm one of few that has managed to lose money over the last 20 years. I'm going backwards so fast it's hard to keep up. Anyone would think I was a semi literate bowser attendent.

[bull....]

Yes I know exactly why... Not hard to figure out.

Berkshire earnings per share destroyed market over all time periods, particularly last 10 years... He can't control votes, only weights...

who cares about eps growth. the only thing that matters to me is the growth in my stock price. which equals dollars in my pocket.

nvidia , microsoft investment in stock etc etc destroys berkshire stock performance as far as this goes , not to discredit berkshire performance still good if you like return just ahead of index fund sp 500
thats why i say pick the right 1 stock your be rich rich rich way richer than sp500 index fund.

[bull....]

Massively underperformed is a understatement, I'm one of few that has managed to lose money over the last 20 years. I'm going backwards so fast it's hard to keep up. Anyone would think I was a semi literate bowser attendent.

yes waiting 40yrs for oca to perform would be a disasyter

[bull....]

Yes I know exactly why... Not hard to figure out.

Berkshire earnings per share destroyed market over all time periods, particularly last 10 years... He can't control votes, only weights...

you didnt answer question again. anyway ill give you a clue its how he invests his float

[alokdhir]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=14899&d=1703190178

Courtesy W69 ...our most well informed mate :t_up:

[Baa_Baa]

... the only thing that matters to me is the growth in my stock price. which equals dollars in my pocket.

BRKa would have been a good choice https://invst.ly/12rhqb


... berkshire performance still good if you like return just ahead of index fund sp 500
thats why i say pick the right 1 stock your be rich rich rich way richer than sp500 index fund.

BRKa vs SP500, yeah "return just ahead" https://invst.ly/12rhsc

[SailorRob]

you didnt answer question again. anyway ill give you a clue its how he invests his float

Float all in CASH sport.

[SailorRob]

who cares about eps growth. the only thing that matters to me is the growth in my stock price. which equals dollars in my pocket.

nvidia , microsoft investment in stock etc etc destroys berkshire stock performance as far as this goes , not to discredit berkshire performance still good if you like return just ahead of index fund sp 500
thats why i say pick the right 1 stock your be rich rich rich way richer than sp500 index fund.

I care about EPS growth. It's all I care about.

EPS x multiple equals stock price.

I want growing EPS with falling stock price, or lower growth stock price. I.e Berkshire.

I looking for the opportunity to make Berkshire 100% of my net worth, let's hope.

[SailorRob]

One share of Berkshire is currently increasing in value over $300 a day.

Many people could swap their house for this $300/day.

Nobody will.

[SailorRob]

who cares about eps growth. the only thing that matters to me is the growth in my stock price. which equals dollars in my pocket.

nvidia , microsoft investment in stock etc etc destroys berkshire stock performance as far as this goes , not to discredit berkshire performance still good if you like return just ahead of index fund sp 500
thats why i say pick the right 1 stock your be rich rich rich way richer than sp500 index fund.

We can all sit around and post about what has done better than what historically.

[bull....]

We can all sit around and post about what has done better than what historically.

actually its just sitting around and going tech is the future and then working out which stock will do best based on this. one could argue the mag 7 will still keep growing far faster than the broader market even at these lofty valuations today. but will berkshire once buffett is gone ? better hope he told his 2ic the secret formula otherwise might just end up being an index fund virtually.

[bull....]

Float all in CASH sport.

no dis-agree about all in cash , maybe a little but buffettt uses float ( which is in effect cheap leverage which ord folks will never have ) to invest in boring old reliable companies he considers value but have high margins and good cashflows and churn out div's yr after yr even in down cycles and have low vol. which means low risk with the float. thats why i think he never invested in tech. ( too vol )
he even uses tax deductions for accelerated depreciation which is in effect another int free loan.

[bull....]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=14899&d=1703190178

Courtesy W69 ...our most well informed mate :t_up:

there all picking kfl ... lol

[bull....]

thats what ben graham taught buffett

ben graham once said that in investing it is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results

[SailorRob]

no dis-agree about all in cash , maybe a little but buffettt uses float ( which is in effect cheap leverage which ord folks will never have ) to invest in boring old reliable companies he considers value but have high margins and good cashflows and churn out div's yr after yr even in down cycles and have low vol. which means low risk with the float. thats why i think he never invested in tech. ( too vol )
he even uses tax deductions for accelerated depreciation which is in effect another int free loan.

Wrong, he isn't concerned about 'vol' at all. Relishes it in fact.

Berkshire cash equivalent to float...

[bull....]

Wrong, he isn't concerned about 'vol' at all. Relishes it in fact.

Berkshire cash equivalent to float...

no buffett said himself that if he invested the float in stocks over time he would make much more than bonds or cash. traditional insurance companies invest the float in cash or bonds normally , not buffett.
he has increased the float many more times by investing it in companies. the float is nott recognized in the acxcounts as far as i believe

[ValueNZ]

no dis-agree about all in cash , maybe a little but buffettt uses float ( which is in effect cheap leverage which ord folks will never have ) to invest in boring old reliable companies he considers value but have high margins and good cashflows and churn out div's yr after yr even in down cycles and have low vol. which means low risk with the float. thats why i think he never invested in tech. ( too vol )
he even uses tax deductions for accelerated depreciation which is in effect another int free loan.

Buffett doesn't care about volatility/beta. Just the difference between price and value at that given time, and how that compares to his other investments.

If anything volatility is a good thing as it creates greater discrepancies between price and value, which presents an investor with the right but not the obligation to participate in a transaction at that price.

[SailorRob]

no buffett said himself that if he invested the float in stocks over time he would make much more than bonds or cash. traditional insurance companies invest the float in cash or bonds normally , not buffett.
he has increased the float many more times by investing it in companies. the float is nott recognized in the acxcounts as far as i believe

Of course it's recognised in the accounts, just like any insurance company. As float equals cash then it can be said the entire float is invested in cash. Been that way for most of last 20 years.

How on earth can you possibly think the float isn't recognised in the accounts?

The biggest display of your bulldust ignorance to date.

Please explain how you came to think the float escaped the accounts.

[bull....]

Of course it's recognised in the accounts, just like any insurance company. As float equals cash then it can be said the entire float is invested in cash. Been that way for most of last 20 years.

How on earth can you possibly think the float isn't recognised in the accounts?

The biggest display of your bulldust ignorance to date.

Please explain how you came to think the float escaped the accounts.

berkshire is not an insurance company , his subsidaries are

[SailorRob]

berkshire is not an insurance company , his subsidaries are

And what?...

[bull....]

Buffett doesn't care about volatility/beta. Just the difference between price and value at that given time, and how that compares to his other investments.

If anything volatility is a good thing as it creates greater discrepancies between price and value, which presents an investor with the right but not the obligation to participate in a transaction at that price.

yes and no. yes about price and value but if you compare a lot of buffetts main investments before recent time s ie apple etc mostly low vol stocks

[ValueNZ]

yes and no. yes about price and value but if you compare a lot of buffetts main investments before recent time s ie apple etc mostly low vol stocks

Send me one link where Buffett states he looks for low volatility stocks.

You won't be able to because it's simply not true.

[bull....]

i thought you 2 were buffett experts lol sr doesnt know buffetts secret sause and vn doesnt know how to look at buffetts early yrs porfolio and work it out. now i must provide a link to prove it ... jeepers

i even gave you heaps of clues to his sauce and you still missed it.

[bull....]

Send me one link where Buffett states he looks for low volatility stocks.

You won't be able to because it's simply not true.

i suggest you read his annual report. he spells it out in plain english how he invested in heaps of duds in the past and it was only when he invested in these boring low risk big stocks it became his sauce.

[bull....]

the secret sauce

The Secret SauceIn August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningfulsum at Berkshire.The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividendhad increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlieand I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checksare highly likely to grow.4American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentiallycompleted in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from thisinvestment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likelyto increase.These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with themimportant gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion whileAmex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s networth, akin to its weighting long ago.Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, onethat flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be ahigh-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so ofannual income.The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom.Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and liveinto your 90s as well.


notice buffettt even mentions stock gains

this from buffett too

The GAAP earnings are 100% misleading when viewed quarterly or even annually. Capitalgains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect themto be meaningfully positive in future decades

[SailorRob]

i suggest you read his annual report. he spells it out in plain english how he invested in heaps of duds in the past and it was only when he invested in these boring low risk big stocks it became his sauce.

And I always thought his best returns were pre Berkshire.

I have a lot to learn about Buffett.

Luckily we have Bull.

[Daytr]

Send me one link where Buffett states he looks for low volatility stocks.

You won't be able to because it's simply not true.

I could have sworn I was reading a post from SailorRob.

[SailorRob]

I could have sworn I was reading a post from SailorRob.

Great minds think alike.

[SailorRob]

i thought you 2 were buffett experts lol sr doesnt know buffetts secret sause and vn doesnt know how to look at buffetts early yrs porfolio and work it out. now i must provide a link to prove it ... jeepers

i even gave you heaps of clues to his sauce and you still missed it.

The good ole sekrit sause

[bull....]

merry xmas all .... im picking rally into yr end. hope so anyway

[Daytr]

Just reading this article from May this year re the ballooning US Federal debt.
If the chart had maintained its projection from about 2000 US Federal Debt would be around $12Tln in stead of the current $33Tln. Federal Government debt in the US has doubled in the last 10 years.

What's also interesting is in the article they mention the only way to fix the debt spiral is slashing social security or health spending by 30% or increasing tax revenue by 40%.
No mention of slashing defence spending which is a significant part of the budget.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-national-debt-grew-314-trillion-high/story?id=99429867#:~:text=Nearly%20every%20year%2C %20the%20government,of%20its%20deficits%20over%20t ime.

[SailorRob]

'For some reason, people take their cues from price action, rather than from value'

[SailorRob]

merry xmas all .... im picking rally into yr end. hope so anyway


Yeah a massive rally into year end will do wonders for next years returns.

[alokdhir]

merry xmas all .... im picking rally into yr end. hope so anyway

Merry Xmas mate ...rally in 2.5 trading sessions ...cant go very far but surely easy to do to have better year end closing ...on thin vols ..always goes that way :t_up:

[Panda-NZ-]

What's also interesting is in the article they mention the only way to fix the debt spiral is slashing social security or health spending by 30% or increasing tax revenue by 40%.
No mention of slashing defence spending which is a significant part of the budget.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-national-debt-grew-314-trillion-high/story?id=99429867#:~:text=Nearly%20every%20year%2C %20the%20government,of%20its%20deficits%20over%20t ime.

Reform healthcare to remove insurance and added beaueaucracy.
Or do medical research to eliminate costly conditions like alzheimers & raise the retirement age.

Reform defence so it's tiny (and affordable) drones and missiles instead of costly large vessels vulnerable to these "innovative" solutions.

[Panda-NZ-]

In terms of the stock market the economic environment in the US entering into the "goldilocks zone".

No recession at all (unlike what was predicted), jobless rate excellent, 10 year yield returning to normal AND inflation down with seemingly no costs.

[Daytr]

In terms of the stock market the economic environment in the US entering into the "goldilocks zone".

No recession at all (unlike what was predicted), jobless rate excellent, 10 year yield returning to normal AND inflation down with seemingly no costs.

Yes it's been quite incredible. Really the only fallout of note were the 2nd tier banks that fell over & were quickly absorbed.

US Federal interest debt servicing is now something like 16% of the Federal budget.

[ValueNZ]

I could have sworn I was reading a post from SailorRob.

Thanks, I didn't realise you were capable of compliments

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/everything-that-will-definitely-happen-in-2024-revealed-liam-dann/LA66ZZ25GNBWLONZHS7QV6AJWE/

Important part is he opining 1 year mortgage rate being almost 2% down by Oct 2024 ...from 7.39% to 5.5% ...that will be some reduction of rates in 10 months !!!

[Valuegrowth]

Markets expectations exceeded in 2023 thanks to technology stocks (magnificent seven). As investment sentiment has shifted to soft landing instead of recession, market psychology also has shifted to higher investor optimism. Very interesting.

One big question is valuation of risky assets are expensive on average. An additional challenge is geopolitical developments.

What types of sectors and stocks should investors consider in 2024? Will they be companies from the health care, financial, consumer staples, commodities, and industrial sectors.

[Bobdn]

Everything feels bullish but we're pretty much just back to where we were this time two years ago.

I see I have got returns of just 3 per cent per annum for the last two years. And much of that was probably our weak dollar. Minus 6 per cent last year and 13 per cent this year (not the 15 per cent I thought).

I've been feeling like a baller lately. Shouldn't have run the numbers.

[bull....]

santa week. of top of my head i think the sp500 is up overall 80% of the time next 5 trading days

[bull....]

Everything feels bullish but we're pretty much just back to where we were this time two years ago.

I see I have got returns of just 3 per cent per annum for the last two years. And much of that was probably our weak dollar. Minus 6 per cent last year and 13 per cent this year (not the 15 per cent I thought).

I've been feeling like a baller lately. Shouldn't have run the numbers.

your right bob just back or a little above 2 yrs ago. im sure you have been in it way longer than 2 yrs so probably not a good indication of your overall return but for sailor rob he should take note and believe it is when you start and when you finish and what happens in between is the end result.

ie if you started 2 yrs ago flat
if you started a yr ago up many double digits
if both stayed in the long term obviously person two will end up with more money.

[Bobdn]

Yeah in it from March 2009. Retired early 8 years later. Put as much I could into the markets at that time through dollar cost averaging, which wasn't a huge amount, but it grew sufficiently to enable me to fund my simple life. Also made some single stock purchases, but no longer do that.

Honestly, I was influenced by Jim Crammer! I saw him on the telly (I must have had Sky at the time, I don't now) and he said it was a good time to buy. True story.

When the DOW is a few points off 40000, I'm going to get a cap made at the local mall with DOW40000 embroided on it and wear it around the house.

[SailorRob]

sailor rob he should take note and believe it is when you start and when you finish and what happens in between is the end result.

That's the entire point... You don't 'start and finish' like a race. You don't save up for years and then dump it into equities for a set period of time and then sell everything. Of course if you do this then the starting valuation matters immensely. And for anyone checking returns - you CANNOT sit in cash and count that different to your equity returns, otherwise you can sit in cash for years and wait until there is a massive drawdown and have great returns on the upswing and think you're killing it but that's not what it's about. You need to count everything at all times.

[Bobdn]

Yes everything must be counted. I never just work out the returns on my equity portion of my financial net worth.

I'm 75 per cent shares, 20 per cent bonds and 5 per cent cash. My two year return was on that, not just the share portion.

I rebalanced a few months back from 83 per cent shares to 75 per cent shares. And then the market ripped (of course). Rebalancing -I'm not a fan.

[SailorRob]

Yes everything must be counted. I never just work out the returns on my equity portion of my financial net worth.

I'm 75 per cent shares, 20 per cent bonds and 5 per cent cash. My two year return was on that, not just the share portion.

I rebalanced a few months back from 83 per cent shares to 75 per cent shares. And then the market ripped (of course). Rebalancing -I'm not a fan.


Yes but knowing what I do about you your allocation is sensible as you need liquidity to fund expenses. It's as much art and science and seems about right to me.

[SailorRob]

ie if you started 2 yrs ago flat
if you started a yr ago up many double digits
if both stayed in the long term obviously person two will end up with more money.


Not obvious at all...

If you started a year ago to get these double digits, what were you doing before? And how much did you 'start' with?

If both long term then the one who stays invested at all times will win. Unless you are Bovine Discharge and can use 12 Screens to time the market.

[bull....]

Not obvious at all...

If you started a year ago to get these double digits, what were you doing before? And how much did you 'start' with?

If both long term then the one who stays invested at all times will win. Unless you are Bovine Discharge and can use 12 Screens to time the market.

ideally you would start just out of your nappies and end just before you die. but anyway in the real world and not in sailors rum clouded mind most people start investing when they have spare cash. at what age that is , is different for everyone.

[ValueNZ]

ideally you would start just out of your nappies and end just before you die. but anyway in the real world and not in sailors rum clouded mind most people start investing when they have spare cash. at what age that is , is different for everyone.

If you live in a first world country there's no excuse not to start in your twenties or ideally as a teenager.

[SailorRob]

ideally you would start just out of your nappies and end just before you die. but anyway in the real world and not in sailors rum clouded mind most people start investing when they have spare cash. at what age that is , is different for everyone.

Again totally missed the point even though you make the point in your post.

You invest when you have spare cash. So effectively dollar cost averaging.

You dont invest a lump at beginning of 2023...

AS YOU HAVE SPARE CASH.

My entire point.

[Daytr]

I can see the discussion hasn't evolved one iota. Don't you ger bored of the merry-go-round?

Anyhoo? What's people's predictions for the NZX in 2024?

[SailorRob]

I can see the discussion hasn't evolved one iota. Don't you ger bored of the merry-go-round?

Anyhoo? What's people's predictions for the NZX in 2024?


May as well ask what predictions are for the weather.

Absolutely nobody knows.

That said, even after 5 years of going nowhere, still looks extremely expensive to me.

These over valuations can take a decade or often two to normalise.

Can see HUGE multiple contractions from here.

[tim23]

May as well ask what predictions are for the weather.

Absolutely nobody knows.

That said, even after 5 years of going nowhere, still looks extremely expensive to me.

These over valuations can take a decade or often two to normalise.

Can see HUGE multiple contractions from here.
I think you just kinda made a prediction. If we knew where the market was heading we would all get rich.

[SailorRob]

I think you just kinda made a prediction. If we knew where the market was heading we would all get rich.

Well we wouldn't all be able to as it would be priced in. Collectively we can only make what the businesses make, unless it's from each other.

Not so much a prediction but pointing out one possible scenario. The only real prediction that can be made is we won't have another massive run up from expanding multiples.

[Greekwatchdog]

Out of the NZ Herald. Spending flat. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/boxing-day-spending-flat-disappointing-result-for-retailers/DTV3THVLHBEW3HIXYEUZCKHC5E/

[troyvdh]

Greek...isnt that news something to celebrate...Isnt that exactly what is required to fix this tiny economy...
An economy focused on milk powder and house price appreciation...ITS madness.

[SailorRob]

Greek...isnt that news something to celebrate...Isnt that exactly what is required to fix this tiny economy...
An economy focused on milk powder and house price appreciation...ITS madness.

Mate don't forget the Chinese Gooseberries and Orrs magic machine.

[bull....]

US markets looking good , US 10yr having a big fall down too 3.79 should flow thru to nz 10yr

here's tom lee outlook for 24. this strategist nailed the closing level of sp500 for the yr


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxOzhq7ZLlg

[winner69]

US markets looking good , US 10yr having a big fall down too 3.79 should flow thru to nz 10yr

here's tom lee outlook for 24. this strategist nailed the closing level of sp500 for the yr


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxOzhq7ZLlg

Is that the Tom Lee that Bob, or was it BaaBaa, raved about the other day and Rob rubbished?

[SailorRob]

Is that the Tom Lee that Bob, or was it BaaBaa, raved about the other day and Rob rubbished?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/10/31/wall-street-strategist-tom-lee-say-rapid-sell-off-is-over-the-bottom-is-here.html

He's good alright

[Bobdn]

Tom Lee! That was a good interview, thanks for posting.

[SailorRob]

Tom Lee! That was a good interview, thanks for posting.

I refuse to believe anyone listens to this!

In 34 minutes you could read an annual report.

[Bobdn]

Lazy and ignorant wins the race with passive investing. I never got to where I am today by reading annual reports.

One could learn a thing or two from CJ:

https://youtu.be/R5Os_SrLJ0w?si=n3dt-EwyTWZbhudu

[SailorRob]

Lazy and ignorant wins the race with passive investing. I never got to where I am today by reading annual reports.

Wins the race with almost all investing yep.

But totally pointless listening to that crap.

Talking heads on CNBC... Christ.

I'd say you outperformed 99% of investors on share trader this year with circa 15%

[Bobdn]

Yeah it's a guilty pleasure and entirely pointless I agree especially since I don't trade. I do love bullish commentary - Ed Yardini, Jeremy Siegel, and Tom Lee. I'm always long so their words are comforting.

I'm about to reread Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run. A favourite of mine.

[SailorRob]

Yeah it's a guilty pleasure and entirely pointless I agree especially since I don't trade. I do love bullish commentary - Ed Yardini, Jeremy Siegel, and Tom Lee. I'm always long so their words are comforting.

I'm about to reread Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run. A favourite of mine.

Well if you did trade it would be even more pointless!

[Bobdn]

Agreed, 100 per cent.

[bull....]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/10/31/wall-street-strategist-tom-lee-say-rapid-sell-off-is-over-the-bottom-is-here.html

He's good alright

yep nailing a price point on an index a yr ahead of time is pretty good. obviously too do it repeatably is another story as you have highlighted. As for listening too these people its no different to you listening to or reading your fav fund managers report.

[SailorRob]

yep nailing a price point on an index a yr ahead of time is pretty good. obviously too do it repeatably is another story as you have highlighted. As for listening too these people its no different to you listening to or reading your fav fund managers report.

I don't listen too anyone. I listen to them though if they have outperformed the market significantly for 15 years plus.

So I fink veri difrent

Think about it bovine discharge, one the one hand you have a talking head that we know nothing about how they're investing or what their track record is.

On the other we have a recorded history of both.

Veri difrent, u not that ignerint.

[bull....]

I don't listen too anyone. I listen to them though if they have outperformed the market significantly for 15 years plus.

So I fink veri difrent

Think about it bovine discharge, one the one hand you have a talking head that we know nothing about how they're investing or what their track record is.

On the other we have a recorded history of both.

Veri difrent, u not that ignerint.

i prefer to listen to random people on the internet for idea generation. they way out-perform fund managers who only perform to bonus levels

[bull....]

here some people views for next yr

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-27/australia-business-economy-predictions-2024-recession/103073948

Harbour Asset Management's Hamish Pepper and Chris Di Leva look ahead into 2024 keeping their distance from the usual focus on tail risk, but with an eye on opportunity and a sober assessment of actual risks

https://www.interest.co.nz/investing/125820/harbour-asset-managements-hamish-pepper-and-chris-di-leva-look-ahead-2024-keeping

[SailorRob]

i prefer to listen to random people on the internet for idea generation. they way out-perform fund managers who only perform to bonus levels

Can you provide the data to show that random people on the Internet way outperform fund managers.

Thanks bovine

[bull....]

Can you provide the data to show that random people on the Internet way outperform fund managers.

Thanks bovine

yep bull predicted his random opinion on sharetrader nasdaq had bottomed in december last yr, predicted meta as his top us stock , predicted bonds were a good bet 2 mths ago ..... many similar bulls around on internet random dudes who do better than sailors fund managers lol . there your data bovine anyway nearly time to go on holiday :t_up:

[SailorRob]

yep bull predicted his random opinion on sharetrader nasdaq had bottomed in december last yr, predicted meta as his top us stock , predicted bonds were a good bet 2 mths ago ..... many similar bulls around on internet random dudes who do better than sailors fund managers lol . there your data bovine anyway nearly time to go on holiday :t_up:

Holiday? From what?

What was your 2023 return across whole net worth bovine?

[SailorRob]

yep bull predicted his random opinion on sharetrader nasdaq had bottomed in december last yr, predicted meta as his top us stock , predicted bonds were a good bet 2 mths ago ..... many similar bulls around on internet random dudes who do better than sailors fund managers lol . there your data bovine anyway nearly time to go on holiday :t_up:

Instead of making predictions about what's already happened and making tons of predictions and then harping on about the few that came true...

What are your main predictions about 2024 that are not priced in, i.e. Contrarian that I can remind you about in future.

Lost yer bottle?

[bull....]

Instead of making predictions about what's already happened and making tons of predictions and then harping on about the few that came true...

What are your main predictions about 2024 that are not priced in, i.e. Contrarian that I can remind you about in future.

Lost yer bottle?

ive already mentioned 2 and of course they play into 24 at the moment until data says otherwise. bonds falling and small caps ( if you get the right one. they benefit from lower rates ) and here's one more for you that hasnt happened yet NZ rbnz will lower rates next yr not in 25 as they are saying. lets see if im right in my caLC guessing. i would ask you for yours but of course you dont have any as your fund managers are still working it out. anyway time to go. us closed.

[SailorRob]

ive already mentioned 2 and of course they play into 24 at the moment until data says otherwise. bonds falling and small caps ( if you get the right one. they benefit from lower rates ) and here's one more for you that hasnt happened yet NZ rbnz will lower rates next yr not in 25 as they are saying. lets see if im right in my caLC guessing. i would ask you for yours but of course you dont have any as your fund managers are still working it out. anyway time to go. us closed.

So the most consensus priced in predictions that every single person is harping on about? Great stuff.

No comment on how much you lost this year?

If, as you claim, you can make money off 'any chart, anywhere, anytime' why do you have to 'go' when the US markets close?

[Daytr]

ive already mentioned 2 and of course they play into 24 at the moment until data says otherwise. bonds falling and small caps ( if you get the right one. they benefit from lower rates ) and here's one more for you that hasnt happened yet NZ rbnz will lower rates next yr not in 25 as they are saying. lets see if im right in my caLC guessing. i would ask you for yours but of course you dont have any as your fund managers are still working it out. anyway time to go. us closed.

I agree Bull re the RBNZ, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see a rate cut around mid 2024.
Slashing of Government spending, climbing unemployment & more mortgages rolling onto the higher rates is going to see the economy deteriorate further.
Higher dollar will also weaken export prices whilst taking the edge of imported inflation such as oil.

Markets however could play out differently, I.e NZX I think may start out the year weak for the first quarter & then start to anticipate lower rates.

[SailorRob]

I agree Bull re the RBNZ, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see a rate cut around mid 2024.
Slashing of Government spending, climbing unemployment & more mortgages rolling onto the higher rates is going to see the economy deteriorate further.
Higher dollar will also weaken export prices whilst taking the edge of imported inflation such as oil.

Markets however could play out differently, I.e NZX I think may start out the year weak for the first quarter & then start to anticipate lower rates.

Well you did used to write a daily newsletter making these predictions for the top institutions of the world.

What were your predictions about 2023?

Save me digging them out.

[SailorRob]

I agree Bull re the RBNZ, in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see a rate cut around mid 2024.
Slashing of Government spending, climbing unemployment & more mortgages rolling onto the higher rates is going to see the economy deteriorate further.
Higher dollar will also weaken export prices whilst taking the edge of imported inflation such as oil.

Markets however could play out differently, I.e NZX I think may start out the year weak for the first quarter & then start to anticipate lower rates.

These 'predictions' are 100% priced in by the market long ago.

[Daytr]

Well you did used to write a daily newsletter making these predictions for the top institutions of the world.

What were your predictions about 2023?

Save me digging them out.

You just click your fingers and I'll jump to it shall I. 🙄


These 'predictions' are 100% priced in by the market long ago.

Prove to me they are priced in?
And how long ago?

You are talking out if your Sailor's hat.

[SailorRob]

You just click your fingers and I'll jump to it shall I. 🙄



Prove to me they are priced in?
And how long ago?

You are talking out if your Sailor's hat.

Futures curve, around 2 months. Think you were even talking about it.

Multiple articles about market rate pricing for next year... Differing from RBNZ....

[Daytr]

Well you did used to write a daily newsletter making these predictions for the top institutions of the world.

What were your predictions about 2023?

Save me digging them out.


These 'predictions' are 100% priced in by the market long ago.


Futures curve, around 2 months. Think you were even talking about it.

Multiple articles about market rate pricing for next year... Differing from RBNZ....

Mortgage rates are flat with most banks out at least a year if not longer. And no I wasn't talking about it.

Not many are calling for rate cuts as early as MID next year either. In fact one of the banks until very recently was still calling for a rate hike, admittedly they are an outlier.

You have said the economy is on fire over & over, so why would any rate cuts be forecast if that was the case.

I get that you think you have to call me out on every post. It's the nature of a scorpion.
But it can just make you look idiotic.

[SailorRob]

Mortgage rates are flat with most banks out at least a year if not longer. And no I wasn't talking about it.

Not many are calling for rate cuts as early as MID next year either. In fact one of the banks until very recently was still calling for a rate hike, admittedly they are an outlier.

You have said the economy is on fire over & over, so why would any rate cuts be forecast if that was the case.

I get that you think you have to call me out on every post. It's the nature of a scorpion.
But it can just make you look idiotic.

Oh man...

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/125185/hawkish-forecasters-think-rates-need-go-higher-longer-while-dovish-economists-think#:~:text=Official%20cash%20rate%20forecasts&text=Analysis%20compiled%20by%20ANZ%20Research,pri ced%20in%20by%20August%202024.

One step ahead of the herd??

[Daytr]

Oh man...

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/125185/hawkish-forecasters-think-rates-need-go-higher-longer-while-dovish-economists-think#:~:text=Official%20cash%20rate%20forecasts&text=Analysis%20compiled%20by%20ANZ%20Research,pri ced%20in%20by%20August%202024.

One step ahead of the herd??

So what are the majority saying?
Besides it's mortgage rates that count as until lower rates are passed on to the consumer, it doesn't matter and at the moment the banks aren't passing lower rates on a 1 year fixed.

I would be very surprised if the RBNZ lowered rates in February, but wouldn't rule it out shortly after.

Not sure about the herd, but I certainly wasn't the one saying the economy was on fire when it was obvious that it wasn't. 🤣

[Daytr]

I'm quite happy to have a friendly wager with you that the NZX50 will close higher at the end of 2024 than it opens in 2024.

[Valuegrowth]

If I am correct banks never passed lower rates for floating rates. They should give flexibility to the consumer to get better decsiosn on their mortgages.
So what are the majority saying?
Besides it's mortgage rates that count as until lower rates are passed on to the consumer, it doesn't matter and at the moment the banks aren't passing lower rates on a 1 year fixed.

I would be very surprised if the RBNZ lowered rates in February, but wouldn't rule it out shortly after.

Not sure about the herd, but I certainly wasn't the one saying the economy was on fire when it was obvious that it wasn't. 藍

[Valuegrowth]

So what are the majority saying?
Besides it's mortgage rates that count as until lower rates are passed on to the consumer, it doesn't matter and at the moment the banks aren't passing lower rates on a 1 year fixed.

I would be very surprised if the RBNZ lowered rates in February, but wouldn't rule it out shortly after.

Not sure about the herd, but I certainly wasn't the one saying the economy was on fire when it was obvious that it wasn't. 藍

If I am correct banks never passed lower rates for floating rates. They should give flexibility to the consumer to get better decisions on their mortgages.

[SailorRob]

So what are the majority saying?
Besides it's mortgage rates that count as until lower rates are passed on to the consumer, it doesn't matter and at the moment the banks aren't passing lower rates on a 1 year fixed.

I would be very surprised if the RBNZ lowered rates in February, but wouldn't rule it out shortly after.

Not sure about the herd, but I certainly wasn't the one saying the economy was on fire when it was obvious that it wasn't. 🤣

Again you are changing the subject when proven wrong, absolutely classic. Remember this is a public forum and everyone is reading what you said and then the article that I posted...

[SailorRob]

I'm quite happy to have a friendly wager with you that the NZX50 will close higher at the end of 2024 than it opens in 2024.

No chance, I have zero idea about any of that.

I will wager my returns vs yours over last 5 years for 100k to a charity of the winners choosing though.

[Daytr]

These 'predictions' are 100% priced in by the market long ago.


No chance, I have zero idea about any of that.

I will wager my returns vs yours over last 5 years for 100k to a charity of the winners choosing though.

So which of these posts is correct?
I suggest the latter one.

[SailorRob]

So which of these posts is correct?
I suggest the latter one.

Something being priced by the market doesn't mean anything to me.

I have absolutely no idea where anything at all in the entire financial world will trade at the end of next year.

[tim23]

Something being priced by the market doesn't mean anything to me.

I have absolutely no idea where anything at all in the entire financial world will trade at the end of next year.

Are you a politician by any chance? If you could predict the future it would be no fun - but for what is worth I’m with Daytr and think the NZX will close 2024 the year higher than it starts.

[Daytr]

These 'predictions' are 100% priced in by the market long ago.


No chance, I have zero idea about any of that.

I will wager my returns vs yours over last 5 years for 100k to a charity of the winners choosing though.


Something being priced by the market doesn't mean anything to me.

I have absolutely no idea where anything at all in the entire financial world will trade at the end of next year.

It doesn't mean anything to you but you said it...

[SailorRob]

It doesn't mean anything to you but you said it...


Yes I said that all of your incredible predictions are consensus and are reflected in current market pricing - as per the article I supplied.

[SailorRob]

Are you a politician by any chance? If you could predict the future it would be no fun - but for what is worth I’m with Daytr and think the NZX will close 2024 the year higher than it starts.


Generally politicians are dishonest and have all the answers.

To find someone who admits they have absolutely zero clue where anything in the entire financial world will be priced 12 Months out is very rare.

But it also describes every single human on Earth.

Out of interest are we talking the BS NZ50G or the real index the NZ50C?

There is a far greater chance the G is higher than the C.

[tim23]

Generally politicians are dishonest and have all the answers.

To find someone who admits they have absolutely zero clue where anything in the entire financial world will be priced 12 Months out is very rare.

But it also describes every single human on Earth.

Out of interest are we talking the BS NZ50G or the real index the NZ50C?

There is a far greater chance the G is higher than the C.
Thanks- that answer confirms it - you’re a Politician.

[SailorRob]

Thanks- that answer confirms it - you’re a Politician.


Coming from someone who has over 96.5% of their sharetrader posts about politics and or on political threads - you would know.

Hopefully the coming year might be a little better for you than the last?

Which index did you make your prediction based on?

[Daytr]

Yes I said that all of your incredible predictions are consensus and are reflected in current market pricing - as per the article I supplied.

Economist's forecasts aren't prices.
You're correct though. Stay away from trading as you have no clue. But just because you don't doesn't mean others don't.

After all there are a lot of people who make a very good living from it.

But this is the never ending merry-go-round with you. Something you know little about but have very strong opinions on.

Could be a nice resolution there for you.
Happy New Year

[winner69]

Hey daytr, heard that the 2023 Santa Claus rally may be that fabled final peak before the long-anticipated blowoff of the markets.

What you think of that prediction?

[alokdhir]

What matters most to stocks as it matters most to real economy is the level of rates ...great benchmark is 10 year yield ....US10Y started year 3.745% ending 3.88% with high being 5.02%

NZ 10Y started year 4.485% ended at 4.332% with high being 5.607 ...so surely trending down and will keep going down towards 3.5% LT average

I am of the opinion that 2024 will be GOOD year for the markets ...we shud close 2024 at much higher levels then 2023 closing ...wont be surprised we have a 20% gain for the index in 2024 !!! NZX50G ...I am talking about not US markets please

[SailorRob]

Economist's forecasts aren't prices Correct and not what I am talking about. I am talking about market future prices which have priced in your predictions.

You're correct though. Stay away from trading as you have no clue. But just because you don't doesn't mean others don't. Correct

After all there are a lot of people who make a very good living from it. There are an infinitesimally small number of people who do over the long term, many get paid to trade other peoples money, but people who actually make a living from trading their own capital - thus actually living off returns generated.... I only know of one person. He trades of 12 screens and can make money off 'any chart anywhere anytime' He learned the art while working on the forecourt of a petrol station from a property 'investor'.

But this is the never ending merry-go-round with you. Something you know little about but have very strong opinions on.

Could be a nice resolution there for you.

Happy New Year

And to you also Daytr

[SailorRob]

What matters most to stocks as it matters most to real economy is the level of rates ...great benchmark is 10 year yield ....US10Y started year 3.745% ending 3.88% with high being 5.02%

NZ 10Y started year 4.485% ended at 4.332% with high being 5.607 ...so surely trending down and will keep going down towards 3.5% LT average Is this what history has taught us over the last 200 years? That we have a bout of inflation and subsequent rate increases which correct towards the mean in a stable linear fashion? If not then why do you say surely?

I am of the opinion that 2024 will be GOOD year for the markets ...we shud close 2024 at much higher levels then 2023 closing ...wont be surprised we have a 20% gain for the index in 2024 !!! NZX50G ...I am talking about not US markets please


You mean the NZ50C? The G isn't a real index.

[winner69]

What matters most to stocks as it matters most to real economy is the level of rates ...great benchmark is 10 year yield ....US10Y started year 3.745% ending 3.88% with high being 5.02%

NZ 10Y started year 4.485% ended at 4.332% with high being 5.607 ...so surely trending down and will keep going down towards 3.5% LT average

I am of the opinion that 2024 will be GOOD year for the markets ...we shud close 2024 at much higher levels then 2023 closing ...wont be surprised we have a 20% gain for the index in 2024 !!! NZX50G ...I am talking about not US markets please

Remember our mate Hoop says inflation is the key driver of equity markets

Where do you see inflation going in 2024 alokdhir?

[SailorRob]

Remember our mate Hoop says inflation is the key driver of equity markets

Where do you see inflation going in 2024 alokdhir?


And what do you see the weather doing in the third week of September? Cheers.

[SailorRob]

A few months after publishing the op-ed, Buffett told CNBC: “I have no idea what the stock market is going to do tomorrow or next week or next month or next year. I actually said [this] twice in the article. The editor said, ‘You’re not supposed to say things twice.’ I said, ‘I want to say this twice [because it’s so important].’

[SailorRob]

“In the absence of a track record of accomplishment, you should take a CEO’s plans as hopeful intent. That doesn’t mean they are lying, just that we really don’t necessarily know what they can or cannot do. There is a particular danger if they use language that resonates with you. More than once in my investment career did I fall for someone who said all the right things, except that they hadn’t done them — in the past, or as it turned out, in the future.”

[Daytr]

And what do you see the weather doing in the third week of September? Cheers.

Again just a silly comment. There are plenty of reasons why macro views can be reliably formed.
Ignoring economic outlook is what fund managers do. They're the ones that are always saying it's a time to buy. Why?
Because that's what they are paid to do.



A few months after publishing the op-ed, Buffett told CNBC: “I have no idea what the stock market is going to do tomorrow or next week or next month or next year. I actually said [this] twice in the article. The editor said, ‘You’re not supposed to say things twice.’ I said, ‘I want to say this twice [because it’s so important].’


Didn't Buffett say something along the lines of he doesn't understand the macro?
So why is his opinion relevant here?
He stuck to what he is good at.

[SailorRob]

Again just a silly comment. There are plenty of reasons why macro views can be reliably formed.
Ignoring economic outlook is what fund managers do. They're the ones that are always saying it's a time to buy. Why?
Because that's what they are paid to do.



Didn't Buffett say he doesn't understand the macro?
So why is his opinion relevant here?
He stuck to what he is good at.


He understands the Macro better than practically anyone.

Has thousands of proprietary data points coming in every day that nobody else has... From operating businesses and all kinds of other places.

But still ZERO ability to predict anything meaningful.

Hey, why don't you mosy on over to the 2023 returns thread. I didn't think we'd find you there for some reason.

[winner69]

Again just a silly comment

………..

.

No Rob was serious …..wanting to know whether the weather in 3rd week of September is a good time to sail away …..for good

;)

[SailorRob]

Again just a silly comment. There are plenty of reasons why macro views can be reliably formed. Really? Then you should be able to supply me with a list of people who do reliably form them... Even Soros and Druk don't....


Good one....

[SailorRob]

No Rob was serious …..wanting to know whether the weather in 3rd week of September is a good time to sail away …..for good

;)


Should be sooner than that but let's see. As long as you are still producing the goods and services for my consumption and behaving in financial markets in a way that gives me an advantage, should be sweet, cheers.

[Daytr]

A few months after publishing the op-ed, Buffett told CNBC: “I have no idea what the stock market is going to do tomorrow or next week or next month or next year. I actually said [this] twice in the article. The editor said, ‘You’re not supposed to say things twice.’ I said, ‘I want to say this twice [because it’s so important].’



Good one....

Buffett was referring to economists & on that we can agree, most economists can't pick their nose. I used to have to correct bank economists work before it was published as quite often the foundation of their view was incorrect, I.e they didn't understand how the gold market functioned & what were the key drivers of demand & supply.

Most traders don't publish their views, they just act on them & make money off them. Be it they are paid handsomely to do so or trade their own money it doesn't matter. The fact is they wouldn't be paid handsomely unless they performed.

Traders don't actually have to get it right the majority of the time to make good money as long as they have good discipline. I.e stop out losing trades & let winning trades once. However good traders will get it right the majority of the time and make excellent returns.

[Daytr]

And what do you see the weather doing in the third week of September? Cheers.



A few months after publishing the op-ed, Buffett told CNBC: “I have no idea what the stock market is going to do tomorrow or next week or next month or next year. I actually said [this] twice in the article. The editor said, ‘You’re not supposed to say things twice.’ I said, ‘I want to say this twice [because it’s so important].’



No Rob was serious …..wanting to know whether the weather in 3rd week of September is a good time to sail away …..for good

;)

Well he is the one who looked out the car window & saw a traffic jam in Auckland and used that as a basis of his view that the economy was on fire.
Who would have thunk it.
A traffic jam in Auckland...

Anyway I have had enough fun today & we finally have a sunny day to enjoy.

Wishing everyone, including SailorRob, a very happy & successful 2024.
I think it's going to be an interesting year, particularly with the US election.
Hey but what year hasn't been interesting in recent times.

[SailorRob]

Buffett was referring to economists & on that we can agree, most economists can't pick their nose. I used to have to correct bank economists work before it was published as quite often the foundation of their view was incorrect, I.e they didn't understand how the gold market functioned & what were the key drivers of demand & supply.

Most traders don't publish their views, they just act on them & make money off them. Be it they are paid handsomely to do so or trade their own money it doesn't matter. The fact is they wouldn't be paid handsomely unless they performed.

Traders don't actually have to get it right the majority of the time to make good money as long as they have good discipline. I.e stop out losing trades & let winning trades once. However good traders will get it right the majority of the time and make excellent returns.

Hang on a minute my bro.

So can you confirm that you are saying that in the quote I referenced, Buffett is not talking about himself but talking about economists????

[SailorRob]

Well he is the one who looked out the car window & saw a traffic jam in Auckland and used that as a basis of his view that the economy was on fire.
Who would have thunk it.
A traffic jam in Auckland...

Anyway I have had enough fun today & we finally have a sunny day to enjoy.

Wishing everyone, including SailorRob, a very happy & successful 2024.
I think it's going to be an interesting year, particularly with the US election.
Hey but what year hasn't been interesting in recent times.

Before you're finished there is a new thread that requires your attention, it's called 2023 returns. Cheers.

[Daytr]

Before you're finished there is a new thread that requires your attention, it's called 2023 returns. Cheers.

Yes, so you have said & no it doesn't require or garner my attention.
As I have stated on multiple occasions I don't monitor my trading returns in percentage terms, as I don't care about that. The amount I trade varies constantly & I pull out money periodically as well.
And again if you unstood proprietary trading you wouldn't even ask.

[Daytr]

Hang on a minute my bro.

So can you confirm that you are saying that in the quote I referenced, Buffett is not talking about himself but talking about economists????

I was referring to this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-warren-buffett-economic-prediction-121058119.html

[SailorRob]

Yes, so you have said & no it doesn't require or garner my attention.
As I have stated on multiple occasions I don't monitor my trading returns in percentage terms, as I don't care about that. The amount I trade varies constantly & I pull out money periodically as well.
And again if you unstood proprietary trading you wouldn't even ask.

So you lost money in 23, nothing to he ashamed of. To be expected with what you do.

So what you're saying is it's impossible to measure the results of prop trading?

If it isn't impossible, then roughly what did you return. How much did you have at beginning vs end, remember what you traded with doesn't matter.

Net worth 12 months ago vs now. Not hard. Compensate for what you've spent.

[Daytr]

So you lost money in 23, nothing to he ashamed of. To be expected with what you do.

So what you're saying is it's impossible to measure the results of prop trading?

If it isn't impossible, then roughly what did you return. How much did you have at beginning vs end, remember what you traded with doesn't matter.

Net worth 12 months ago vs now. Not hard. Compensate for what you've spent.

And if I was even bothered, which I'm not, then you would ask me to prove it.

My ballpark would be a 50% return on my trading portfolio, that's a pretty poor return imo.
It's also my smallest portfolio, but its typically leveraged.

A 7% loss on my investment portfolio, this contains medium to long term holdings look for multi bagger returns over time so a bit like your investing, day to day movements don't bother me as long as the story remains intact.

[SailorRob]

And if I was even bothered, which I'm not, then you would ask me to prove it.

My ballpark would be a 50% return on my trading portfolio, that's a pretty poor return imo.
It's also my smallest portfolio, but its typically leveraged.

A 7% loss on my investment portfolio, this contains medium to long term holdings look for multi bagger returns over time so a bit like your investing, day to day movements don't bother me as long as the story remains intact.


No I would trust you.

But that doesn't tell us much, what's your estimated total return across your net worth excluding any family home or private business.

So difference between year beginning and ending net worth adjusting for withdrawals.

[Daytr]

No I would trust you.

But that doesn't tell us much, what's your estimated total return across your net worth excluding any family home or private business.

I'm not interested in working that out or answering that as to me it's irrelevant.
I wouldn't want to look at the world from a lense such as, if I hadn't gone on that holiday or bought that boat I could have invested and made X. That's your thing not mine.

[SailorRob]

I'm not interested in working that out or answering that as to me it's irrelevant.
I wouldn't to look at the world from a lense such as, if I hadn't gone on that holiday or bought that boat I could have invested and made X. That's your thing not mine.

Cool story bro.

Happy new year.

[alokdhir]

Remember our mate Hoop says inflation is the key driver of equity markets

Where do you see inflation going in 2024 alokdhir?

I think Hoop said rates are the prime driver of equity markets ...though both are connected but he showed charts connecting rates with equity indexes ...but getting old so maybe memory is fudgy ...lol

[winner69]

Guy called Jason Goepfert says -

For only the 4th time since 1950, the McClellan Summation Index for the S&P 500 is set to cross +1500.

The only precedents are the ends of the bear markets in 1970, 1974, and early 2010s.

Incredible

[SailorRob]

Guy called Jason Goepfert says -

For only the 4th time since 1950, the McClellan Summation Index for the S&P 500 is set to cross +1500.

The only precedents are the ends of the bear markets in 1970, 1974, and early 2010s.

Incredible


Truly astounding, the old McClellan summation.

Thanks for posting this, will help me massively in 2024.

[Valuegrowth]

Guy called Jason Goepfert says -

For only the 4th time since 1950, the McClellan Summation Index for the S&P 500 is set to cross +1500.

The only precedents are the ends of the bear markets in 1970, 1974, and early 2010s.

Incredible

I am 100% bullish on my investment. I don't have to do anything other than sitting, waiting and thinking.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/the-bear-market-is-over-sundial-research-founder-1031602619

"The bear market is over.*

In modern markets, the S&P 500 has never lost ground over the following year when advancing volume was 87% or more of total volume for 2 out of 3 days coming off a 52-week low.

It has a perfect track record. ** pic.twitter.com/1p6moIqrX5
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) July 19, 2022"

[iceman]

My New Years wish is for the pathetic and childish pissing contest on this thread to finish at 23.59 hrs on 31/12/23.

[Muse]

My New Years wish is for the pathetic and childish pissing contest on this thread to finish at 23.59 hrs on 31/12/23.

Mine too….

[SailorRob]

My New Years wish is for the pathetic and childish pissing contest on this thread to finish at 23.59 hrs on 31/12/23.

Why don't you help the wish become true by contributing something thoughtful, interesting and useful.

[Getty]

Guy called Jason Goepfert says -

For only the 4th time since 1950, the McClellan Summation Index for the S&P 500 is set to cross +1500.

The only precedents are the ends of the bear markets in 1970, 1974, and early 2010s.

Incredible
Thanks for posting winner.

That's a good counter to what l saw on CNBC this morning.

On their end of year trading session chat, the consensus
seemed to be recession was imminent, and gold was the place to be.

[ratkin]

Mine too….

Amen to that, the standard of posting has been on the decline for a few years now, turned into a dick waving contest for inadequates trying to impress others with their supposed acumen.

[percy]

My New Years wish is for the pathetic and childish pissing contest on this thread to finish at 23.59 hrs on 31/12/23.

Well said.
Agree.................................

[percy]

Amen to that, the standard of posting has been on the decline for a few years now, turned into a dick waving contest for inadequates trying to impress others with their supposed acumen.

Agree with you.
Researching and sharing research on companies seems to have gone out the door.
Great pity as I think we all learnt and gained a lot from sensible ,honest genuine posters.
Perhaps Vince will let them have their own threads so we can ignore their noise.

[Ricky-bobby]

Yep, totally agree. There’s some posters who are getting way to carried away and always on the attack. I have learnt heaps on here over the years. Biggest one is no one is always right, take an open/ balanced view on things and enjoy the fruits of ur decision! Best of luck for 2024!

[Bjauck]

Amen to that, the standard of posting has been on the decline for a few years now, turned into a dick waving contest for inadequates trying to impress others with their supposed acumen.
So true. Apologies for any part I may have played in blurring threads. Peace.

[Daytr]

Yep, totally agree. There’s some posters who are getting way to carried away and always on the attack. I have learnt heaps on here over the years. Biggest one is no one is always right, take an open/ balanced view on things and enjoy the fruits of ur decision! Best of luck for 2024!

"No one is always right" Amen to that.
There are very few who actually post on here at all, let alone contribute something new. But perhaps that's because they are likely to be attacked and scorned, which does no one any good.

We all have different approaches to life & what our priorities are and different ways of trying to make a buck and that should be respected.
Good to be critiqued etc but not rubbished.

Happy NY everyone.

[ValueNZ]

I'm not interested in working that out or answering that as to me it's irrelevant.
I wouldn't want to look at the world from a lense such as, if I hadn't gone on that holiday or bought that boat I could have invested and made X. That's your thing not mine.
You don't consider opportunity cost?

[Daytr]

You don't consider opportunity cost?

What of taking a holiday ?
No and that would be a sad way to live.
Life is to be lived, I would rather live a full life & be poor than be miserly & rich. Not that I'm poor so it might be an easy thing to say.

One area I can firmly say I have had an outstanding performance in is having fun.
My motto when I was young, was to live like a Rockstar, without the talent of course. 😅
But priorities change as you get older and I would probably be dead if I had carried on that course.

Dwelling on would've, should've, could've moments is seldom helpful, as history rarely repeats.

[winner69]

Red Sea action will see another inflationary hit on its way for NZ. So will the Reserve Bank need to further hike interest rates to halt the impacts of this ‘imported inflation’ and Luxon will have to say not our fault

[alokdhir]

Red Sea action will see another inflationary hit on its way for NZ. So will the Reserve Bank need to further hike interest rates to halt the impacts of this ‘imported inflation’ and Luxon will have to say not our fault

U are too smart to know the answer to that ...just a hint ....Consumers are almost choking on rates choke hold !!! Labour market was super tight which has reversed due to excessive immigration inflow ...thus all need tighten purses as job security confidence going or gone ....Red Sea or Blue sea wont matter much this time ...just may prolong the agony or delay the inevitable ....Now lets hear your candid views mate ...:p


PS : If its a worry then market will climb that too ...wall of worries to climb in 2024 and still go up ...:t_up:

[BDL]

You don't consider opportunity cost?

No serious investor would not consider opportunity cost.

It is fundamental to investing.....

[SailorRob]

One area I can firmly say I have had an outstanding performance in is having fun. My motto when I was young, was to live like a Rockstar


The Women wanted you, the Men wanted to be you. Or was that the other way around?

Nah jokes aside must have been awesome punching out multi hundreds of % returns year after year and writing daily investment research that individuals and firms alike across the world stood by their Fax machines awaiting.

[Daytr]

The Women wanted you, the Men wanted to be you. Or was that the other way around?

Nah jokes aside must have been awesome punching out multi hundreds of % returns year after year and writing daily investment research that individuals and firms alike across the world stood by their Fax machines awaiting.

Happy New Year to you to. 🙄

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/central-banks-poised-for-rate-cuts-in-2024-investors-and-economists-predict/24RHZ3R75JBGJF6HQJ5ULUT5KU/

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/central-banks-poised-for-rate-cuts-in-2024-investors-and-economists-predict/24RHZ3R75JBGJF6HQJ5ULUT5KU/

Story all good news

Central banks poised for rate cuts in 2024, investors and economists predict

[SailorRob]

Story all good news

Central banks poised for rate cuts in 2024, investors and economists predict

Winner69 still recoiling from the results of listening to investors and economists predictions for 2023 refuses to participate in '2023 returns' thread.

[alokdhir]

Story all good news

Central banks poised for rate cuts in 2024, investors and economists predict

When its common news like its becoming then it should be already in the prices ...ARE THEY ? Need your opinion that this common news / expectation of 2024 is already in the SPs or not yet ...still opportunity ahead ??

Most world markets its almost 90% discounted ...imo ...NZX / ASX will do so in coming quarter I reckon ....what say u buddy ?

[Daytr]

Interesting start to the year with Apple being downgraded by Barclays.
USD taking back some of its losses as the aggressive outlook for US interest rate cuts is trimmed.

I will be looking for an opportunity in the first quarter to reset positions in equities, currencies & commodities, in the last little while I was starting to wonder if I will get that opportunity.
Patience as they say is a virtue.

[SailorRob]

Dont worry about people stealing your ideas. If they're any good, you'll have to ram them down people's throats.

Truth.

[Daytr]

Nothing to see here...

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/03/economy/us-national-debt-34-trillion/index.html

[SailorRob]

Nothing to see here...

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/03/economy/us-national-debt-34-trillion/index.html

Correct.

Finally agree on something.

Look at the other side of the balance sheet.

The ability to take massive portions each year of every single company in America, the best in the world.

What would you pay today for a 21% dividend in perpetuity from all these companies AND the ability to increase it at will.

For the ability to tax 250 million of the most productive individuals on earth.

For the most powerful military in history. The second largest airforce in the world is the US Navy...

The ability to print money for free and use this to import goods from anywhere in the world. Anyone will BEG for it.

For a continent with two massive coastlines, friendly neighbours.

I could continue all day.

All damn day.

[Daytr]

Correct.

Finally agree on something.

Look at the other side of the balance sheet.

The ability to take massive portions each year of every single company in America, the best in the world.

What would you pay today for a 21% dividend in perpetuity from all these companies AND the ability to increase it at will.

For the ability to tax 250 million of the most productive individuals on earth.

For the most powerful military in history. The second largest airforce in the world is the US Navy...

The ability to print money for free and use this to import goods from anywhere in the world. Anyone will BEG for it.

For a continent with two massive coastlines, friendly neighbours.

I could continue all day.

All damn day.

You could go on all day I'm sure you typically do,
but unfortunately that doesn't pertain to quality.

The growth rate of US debt is becoming a problem. Debt is growing at a much faster rate than GDP.
Many of those assets you refer are liabilities, I.e they cost money to maintain and don't provide revenue.
Yes they can raise taxes as at the moment they are spending a lot more than they are receiving, however there is no political will to do so.

They can keep on printing money, but will be wary of doing that after the recent inflationary environment.

If the debt keeps climbing at current rates their will be further sovereign debt rating downgrades and that's when it starts to become a real problem.

[SailorRob]

You could go on all day I'm sure you typically do,
but unfortunately that doesn't pertain to quality.

The growth rate of US debt is becoming a problem. Debt is growing at a much faster rate than GDP.
Many of those assets you refer are liabilities, I.e they cost money to maintain and don't provide revenue.
Yes they can raise taxes as at the moment they are spending a lot more than they are receiving, however there is no political will to do so.

They can keep on printing money, but will be wary of doing that after the recent inflationary environment.

If the debt keeps climbing at current rates their will be further sovereign debt rating downgrades and that's when it starts to become a real problem.

A real problem for anyone apart from America.

In 2011 when they were downgraded the dollar shot up like a dog shot in the arse.

But wayyyyy beyond most peoples understanding.

I'll keep 90% of my net worth invested in America.

Thanks for playing.

[Valuegrowth]

You could go on all day I'm sure you typically do,
but unfortunately that doesn't pertain to quality.

The growth rate of US debt is becoming a problem. Debt is growing at a much faster rate than GDP.
Many of those assets you refer are liabilities, I.e they cost money to maintain and don't provide revenue.
Yes they can raise taxes as at the moment they are spending a lot more than they are receiving, however there is no political will to do so.

They can keep on printing money, but will be wary of doing that after the recent inflationary environment.

If the debt keeps climbing at current rates their will be further sovereign debt rating downgrades and that's when it starts to become a real problem.. My only concern is the global debt bomb. We are sitting on the volcano. How are they going to sort it out? Do they have once and for all solution? I doubt.

[SailorRob]

. My only concern is the global debt bomb. We are sitting on the volcano. How are they going to sort it out? Do they have once and for all solution? I doubt.

Who does the globe owe the debt to?

Is it one other planet mainly or a bunch of them?

[Daytr]

Many empires & Kingdoms throughout history have been conquered by debt.

China & Japan are the largest external owners of US debt.

What happens at a Government level doesn't necessarily translate to corporate America, but there are certain areas that receive Government funding & contracts that could be hurt or the wider market through higher taxes.

[SailorRob]

Many empires & Kingdoms throughout history have been conquered by debt.

China & Japan are the largest external owners of US debt.

What happens at a Government level doesn't necessarily translate to corporate America, but there are certain areas that receive Government funding & contracts that could be hurt or the wider market through higher taxes.

Yep but if the toughest guy in school owes you cash and you're a skinny runt then there won't be much conquering.

[Ggcc]

Yep but if the toughest guy in school owes you cash and you're a skinny runt then there won't be much conquering.
Every toughest guy will always encounter another tougher guy one day. Or one day a group might bully the toughest guy.

[SailorRob]

Every toughest guy will always encounter another tougher guy one day. Or one day a group might bully the toughest guy.

True, this is possible in many decades time but we're good for the foreseeable future.

Technology will rule.

[SailorRob]

'We really just focus on businesses. We don’t care if there’s a stock market. I mean, would we want to own Coca-Cola, the 8 percent we own of Coca-Cola, or the 11 percent or Gillette, if they said, you know, “We’re just going to delist the stock and we’re never — you know, we’ll open it again in 20 years?”

It’s fine with us, you know. And if it goes down on the news, we’ll buy more of it. So we care about what the business does'.


So damn fine.

[ziggy415]

Every toughest guy will always encounter another tougher guy one day. Or one day a group might bully the toughest guy.

Brics is a lot closer than decades away.....

[Daytr]

True, this is possible in many decades time but we're good for the foreseeable future.

Technology will rule.

At the current rate of growth of US debt, what will it be in 10 years time?
And at what percentage of GDP at the average rate of GDP growth?

[SailorRob]

Brics is a lot closer than decades away.....

I'll tell you what mate. You invest everything you have in Brics, I'll take America.

Good luck.

[ziggy415]

I'll tell you what mate. You invest everything you have in Brics, I'll take America.

Good luck.
Bricks and mortar 😎 brics is gaining momentum but will it be better having ten masters as opposed to only one when China wants trade in yuan and Russia in roubles and India wanting neither but for me brics will control a lot of the oil sector...USA needs to get off its arse or it's good night nurse

[SailorRob]

Bricks and mortar 😎 brics is gaining momentum but will it be better having ten masters as opposed to only one when China wants trade in yuan and Russia in roubles and India wanting neither but for me brics will control a lot of the oil sector...USA needs to get off its arse or it's good night nurse

I enjoy having you in the market against me. I see things very very differently. As I can see reality.

[Panda-NZ-]

Bricks and mortar  brics is gaining momentum but will it be better having ten masters as opposed to only one when China wants trade in yuan and Russia in roubles and India wanting neither but for me brics will control a lot of the oil sector...USA needs to get off its arse or it's good night nurse

"The West" can get together and start charging the earth for AI and capital goods.

This seems to be the case already with selected tariffs.

[SailorRob]

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

[Valuegrowth]

https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf (https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf)

Thanks for the link. Except few charts others are very complex. I can clearly understand one thing when I look at S & P 500 index. Market is not cheap any longer. Chart has gone straight up from 2008 to 2023. At some point it will bend. Stock market cycles will repeat.

March 9, 2009, P/E (fwd.) 10.4x
Jan. 3, 2022, P/E (fwd.) = 21.4x
Dec. 31, 2023, P/E (fwd.) = 19.5x

Stil I can see one final leg in the current long bull market which started in 2008/2009. I am happy I already rebalanced my portfolio. Time to follow ideas of intelligent value investors and Jim Slater's Zulu Principle (Growth Investing mixed with Value thanks to Percy).

[SailorRob]

Thanks for the link. Except few charts others are very complex. I can clearly understand one thing when I look at S & P 500 index. Market is not cheap any longer. Chart has gone straight up from 2008 to 2023. At some point it will bend. Stock market cycles will repeat.

March 9, 2009, P/E (fwd.) 10.4x
Jan. 3, 2022, P/E (fwd.) = 21.4x
Dec. 31, 2023, P/E (fwd.) = 19.5x

Stil I can see one final leg in the current long bull market which started in 2008/2009. I am happy I already rebalanced my portfolio. Time to follow ideas of intelligent value investors and Jim Slater's Zulu Principle (Growth Investing mixed with Value thanks to Percy).


The market ex the highest valued 100 stocks is a cheap as you will see it outside of a 2009 or Covid crash.

Incredible value everywhere.

If you remove your head from your backside and forget the S&P500.

[Valuegrowth]

The market ex the highest valued 100 stocks is a cheap as you will see it outside of a 2009 or Covid crash.

Incredible value everywhere.

If you remove your head from your backside and forget the S&P500.

I agree there are undervalued stocks worldwide. They can separate from world indexes. Basically, I like strong balance sheet firms. Cash flow is king for me. Among value and growth stocks there are value and growth traps.

Punters are busy with magnificent stocks and speculative stocks. Contrarian intelligent investors are busy with identifying hidden gems, less known companies or out of favour companies. Those who go behind value are busy with identifying undervalued stocks.

[SailorRob]

I agree there are undervalued stocks worldwide. They can separate from world indexes. Basically, I like strong balance sheet firms. Cash flow is king for me. Among value and growth stocks there are value and growth traps.

Punters are busy with magnificent stocks and speculative stocks. Contrarian intelligent investors are busy with identifying hidden gems, less known companies or out of favour companies. Those who go behind value are busy with identifying undervalued stocks.

Give us an example of a couple of these companies you've identified.

I've never seen you talk about an individual company.

Anyone can re post links and spout incomprehensible garbage, let's talk about some companies.

[Valuegrowth]

Give us an example of a couple of these companies you've identified.

I've never seen you talk about an individual company.

Anyone can re post links and spout incomprehensible garbage, let's talk about some companies.
I will give two of them now. Currently, I have kept them on my radar.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.(ISNPY)
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.(SHG)

Few more:

Right now, Taiwan Semi-conductor is bit expensive. Baba and Baidu have value, but given the geopolitical issue, growth issue other issues they are vulnerable in the short run. If I am correct Ali Baba has a Lawsuit issue regarding Kelly Toys and it’s owned by BRKB through parent company Alleghany Corp. Few months back some analysts recommended to buy both Baba at $100 and Baidu $150 when other tech stocks were on fire. Today,Baba and Baidu are trading at $73 and 118 respectively. Still, I see risks. I am not keen that much on stocks now as I already rebalanced my portfolio to create long term shareholder value. Unless I find very attractive investment, I don’t have to do anything for my concentrated portfolio. Now It’s time to make use of Zulu principle and value principle.

[SailorRob]

I will give two of them now. Currently, I have kept them on my radar.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.(ISNPY)
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.(SHG)

Few more:

Right now, Taiwan Semi-conductor is bit expensive. Baba and Baidu have value, but given the geopolitical issue, growth issue other issues they are vulnerable in the short run. If I am correct Ali Baba has a Lawsuit issue regarding Kelly Toys and it’s owned by BRKB through parent company Alleghany Corp. Few months back some analysts recommended to buy both Baba at $100 and Baidu $150 when other tech stocks were on fire. Today,Baba and Baidu are trading at $73 and 118 respectively. Still, I see risks. I am not keen that much on stocks now as I already rebalanced my portfolio to create long term shareholder value. Unless I find very attractive investment, I don’t have to do anything for my concentrated portfolio. Now It’s time to make use of Zulu principle and value principle.


Good post, cheers. Will review and reply.

[JBmurc]

I will give two of them now. Currently, I have kept them on my radar.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.(ISNPY)
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.(SHG)

Few more:

Right now, Taiwan Semi-conductor is bit expensive. Baba and Baidu have value, but given the geopolitical issue, growth issue other issues they are vulnerable in the short run. If I am correct Ali Baba has a Lawsuit issue regarding Kelly Toys and it’s owned by BRKB through parent company Alleghany Corp. Few months back some analysts recommended to buy both Baba at $100 and Baidu $150 when other tech stocks were on fire. Today,Baba and Baidu are trading at $73 and 118 respectively. Still, I see risks. I am not keen that much on stocks now as I already rebalanced my portfolio to create long term shareholder value. Unless I find very attractive investment, I don’t have to do anything for my concentrated portfolio. Now It’s time to make use of Zulu principle and value principle.

would love to know what stocks you do hold VG ?

[Bobdn]

Fun fact I just saw on a Pensioncraft YouTube video.

In 1900 the UK made up 24 per cent of global share markets and the USA was 15 per cent.

In 2023 the UK is just 4 per cent (roughly the size of Apple) and the USA is 58 per cent.

The UK has become next to irrelevant on global markets. However, it is certainly much cheaper than US shares at the moment. If materials, energy and banks start to work again (which dominate the FTSE 100) I guess we all benefit from our exposure to the ASX200 (BHP, Rio - listed on both exchanges - Woodside, the big 5 banks) and we have the tax advantages.

Just a few random thoughts on this beautiful day.

[winner69]

The amount of IMPORT cargo reaching all worldwide ports has been plunging the last few weeks. Currently, import volumes are as low as the COVID shutdowns.

Shipping disruptions one cause ..but could indicate a slowing global economy

[Daytr]

Fun fact I just saw on a Pensioncraft YouTube video.

In 1900 the UK made up 24 per cent of global share markets and the USA was 15 per cent.

In 2023 the UK is just 4 per cent (roughly the size of Apple) and the USA is 58 per cent.

The UK has become next to irrelevant on global markets. However, it is certainly much cheaper than US shares at the moment. If materials, energy and banks start to work again (which dominate the FTSE 100) I guess we all benefit from our exposure to the ASX200 (BHP, Rio - listed on both exchanges - Woodside, the big 5 banks) and we have the tax advantages.

Just a few random thoughts on this beautiful day.

I wonder what the difference was pre & post Brexit?
London attracted a lot of money through the 1990s through to the GFC and competed with New York, Paris, Frankfurt etc attracting investment & talent.
Not all legit money of course, especially out of Eastern Europe.