Black Monday

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Baa_Baa;1031550]Precisely, but I don't know why you think he doesn't get credit for it (what they do)? https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/foundation-fact-sheet Regardless of whether we agree where the money goes, there's a heck of a lot of money that does go to their selected causes. Billions of it.

Another insight for successful investors, that success in investing beyond what we ourselves need for our own lives and purposes, has precedent in the very successful investors who choose to share and distribute their wealth through philanthropy, to causes that they are passionate about.

An admirable ambition imo.[/QUOTE

I'm just referring to the amount of BS conspiracy theories around Gates motivation for giving back.

[jonu]

Precisely, but I don't know why you think he doesn't get credit for it (what they do)? https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/foundation-fact-sheet Regardless of whether we agree where the money goes, there's a heck of a lot of money that does go to their selected causes. Billions of it.

Another insight for successful investors, that success in investing beyond what we ourselves need for our own lives and purposes, has precedent in the very successful investors who choose to share and distribute their wealth through philanthropy, to causes that they are passionate about.

An admirable ambition imo.

"Selected causes". The Bill and Melinda Gates foundation push western "values" across the developing world in a manner that in any other circumstance would be called colonising. The foundation also puts business back towards industries where Bill Gates has large holdings. Buffet quietly contributed along with Gates, pushing idealogies that are often not welcomed in the likes of the African continent.

[Baa_Baa]

Precisely, but I don't know why you think he doesn't get credit for it (what they do)? https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/foundation-fact-sheet Regardless of whether we agree where the money goes, there's a heck of a lot of money that does go to their selected causes. Billions of it.

Another insight for successful investors, that success in investing beyond what we ourselves need for our own lives and purposes, has precedent in the very successful investors who choose to share and distribute their wealth through philanthropy, to causes that they are passionate about.

An admirable ambition imo.

I'm just referring to the amount of BS conspiracy theories around Gates motivation for giving back.

Ok, I'm not aware of any of that as I don't do social media (except this largely insipid place), but I'll take your word for it that Gates Foundation gets some flak. Can't understand why they would though, billions to good causes.

I think that all successful investors will be more challenged by what they will do with their money when they have way more than they will ever need, than by where's the next successful investment coming from.

[Baa_Baa]

"Selected causes". The Bill and Melinda Gates foundation push western "values" across the developing world in a manner that in any other circumstance would be called colonising. The foundation also puts business back towards industries where Bill Gates has large holdings. Buffet quietly contributed along with Gates, pushing idealogies that are often not welcomed in the likes of the African continent.

Interesting, thank you. It doesn't surprise me that you would have cause for concern over the investments that these philanthropies choose. But we can't change that, or that they choose to unload billions of their money into them.

We can only decide what we , ourselves, choose to distribute our own wealth in to, it's a dimension above and beyond success in investing that relatively few of us will ever have the choice to do.

I hope to have the choice one day, and when or if it comes, not the criticism of what I chose to do, but by then I probably wouldn't care what anyone else thought about my choices.

[kiora]

"Both countries offer additional incentives where donations are made to endow a charitable foundation. This enables a philanthropist to escape liability for tax on the donation, yet also retain control over how the money is spent, within the constraints of charity law. The effect of this is often to give the wealthy control in matters that would otherwise be determined by the state"
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/08/how-philanthropy-benefits-the-super-rich

[Daytr]

"Selected causes". The Bill and Melinda Gates foundation push western "values" across the developing world in a manner that in any other circumstance would be called colonising. The foundation also puts business back towards industries where Bill Gates has large holdings. Buffet quietly contributed along with Gates, pushing idealogies that are often not welcomed in the likes of the African continent.

Be specific. What causes or Western Values?
I assume you things like issuing condoms to stop the spread of aids?
Or perhaps what they have invested in vaccination programs to save millions of lives.

At least he's not pushing some Christian agenda as in what happened when they were actually colonized.


Ok, I'm not aware of any of that as I don't do social media (except this largely insipid place), but I'll take your word for it that Gates Foundation gets some flak. Can't understand why they would though, billions to good causes.

I think that all successful investors will be more challenged by what they will do with their money when they have way more than they will ever need, than by where's the next successful investment coming from.

Baa_Baa, case in point above. There are plenty of conspiracy nutters on here that have referenced Gates.

[bull....]

Bitcoin hits 18-month high as traders bet on improving macro picture and bullish forecasts push crypto higher
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-today-cryptocurrency-fed-rate-cuts-policy-outlook-markets-2023-11

[alokdhir]

Bitcoin hits 18-month high as traders bet on improving macro picture and bullish forecasts push crypto higher


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-today-cryptocurrency-fed-rate-cuts-policy-outlook-markets-2023-11

Bitcoin is the gauge of risk on sentiment ...which is clearly showing stocks will keep rallying for some more time ...good job mate Bull ...finally U started posting bullish posts :t_up:

[bull....]

Bitcoin is the gauge of risk on sentiment ...which is clearly showing stocks will keep rallying for some more time ...good job mate Bull ...finally U started posting bullish posts :t_up:

tell ORR killed the rally yesterday with his hawkish comments , although i dont think the market believes what he said about no cuts till 25. His main argument based on immigration causing rents to rise . more likely rents going up cause they building not enough homes.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

“The Reserve Bank surprised markets and economists yesterday with a warning it could raise interest rates again early next year because of higher housing costs from record-high migration and a lack of new homes, and the stimulatory effects of tax cuts.

The National-ACT-NZ First Coalition has promised to further loosen migration settings, freeze infrastructure and housing investment plans while it repeals Three Waters and the RMA, and accelerates its tax cuts for landlords. All of these moves would amplify the inflationary effects of higher rents, rates and services costs rippling through the economy, as the RBNZ laid out in its forecasts.”

[Daytr]

"Both countries offer additional incentives where donations are made to endow a charitable foundation. This enables a philanthropist to escape liability for tax on the donation, yet also retain control over how the money is spent, within the constraints of charity law. The effect of this is often to give the wealthy control in matters that would otherwise be determined by the state"
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/08/how-philanthropy-benefits-the-super-rich

Totally agree for these large foundations etc. Pay your tax first and then if you want to donate or create a foundation etc do that net of paying your tax.

[Daytr]

Bitcoin hits 18-month high as traders bet on improving macro picture and bullish forecasts push crypto higher
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-today-cryptocurrency-fed-rate-cuts-policy-outlook-markets-2023-11


Bitcoin is the gauge of risk on sentiment ...which is clearly showing stocks will keep rallying for some more time ...good job mate Bull ...finally U started posting bullish posts :t_up:

I would suggest BTC's rally is more to do with the potential launch of an ETF in the near future, combined with recent dollar weakness.

Probably unlikely, but if the ETF wasn't approved, watchout below....

[ValueNZ]

Totally agree for these large foundations etc. Pay your tax first and then if you want to donate or create a foundation etc do that net of paying your tax.
Why? On average private charities are always going to produce far greater public good than any government given the same amount of cash.

[Daytr]

Why? On average private charities are always going to produce far greater public good than any government given the same amount of cash.

Yes that's an argument, however you shouldn't get to choose what area of funding your tax is spent on otherwise we would all only pick areas we care about rather than what actually needs funding.

[Relaxed]

Totally agree for these large foundations etc. Pay your tax first and then if you want to donate or create a foundation etc do that net of paying your tax.

Berkshire apparently pays over USD 3 Billion per year in taxes. wouldn't this count as paying taxes first?
this amounts to 0.1% of all tax collected in the US. OR if 1000 companies paid the same amount of tax, no one else would have to.


Yes that's an argument, however you shouldn't get to choose what area of funding your tax is spent on otherwise we would all only pick areas we care about rather than what actually needs funding.

some would argue that these wealthy people are doing both. paying taxes to government and at the same time donating to charities.

[Daytr]

Berkshire apparently pays over USD 3 Billion per year in taxes. wouldn't this count as paying taxes first?
this amounts to 0.1% of all tax collected in the US. OR if 1000 companies paid the same amount of tax, no one else would have to.



some would argue that these wealthy people are doing both. paying taxes to government and at the same time donating to charities.

Where did I suggest Berkshire was doing otherwise? And good for them.

[Relaxed]

Where did I suggest Berkshire was doing otherwise? And good for them.

I wasn't implying anything about what you said, I was merely commenting that taxes have been paid, and what he then does with his wealth is up to him

[Daytr]

I wasn't implying anything about what you said, I was merely commenting that taxes have been paid, and what he then does with his wealth is up to him

Fair enough and I agree whole heartedly and Buffett set an example others of extreme wealth could follow.

[Relaxed]

Fair enough and I agree whole heartedly and Buffett set an example others of extreme wealth could follow.

Exactly correct.
I am always intrigued by people throwing stones at where his, and others', money is being donated, but seeming to forget that at least it is being donated.

Also, his billionaires pledge request is pretty cool.

[Daytr]

Exactly correct.
I am always intrigued by people throwing stones at where his, and others', money is being donated, but seeming to forget that at least it is being donated.

Also, his billionaires pledge request is pretty cool.

Yes very cool.

[bull....]

Bitcoin is the gauge of risk on sentiment ...which is clearly showing stocks will keep rallying for some more time ...good job mate Bull ...finally U started posting bullish posts :t_up:

yep your right bitcoin correlation is pretty high vrs sp500 at the moment.

[bull....]

the best november for a long time

Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/biggest-blowout-in-bonds-since-the-1980s-sparks-everything-rally?srnd=premium-asia

[Daytr]

the best november for a long time

Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/biggest-blowout-in-bonds-since-the-1980s-sparks-everything-rally?srnd=premium-asia

Interesting, Macquarie just came out forecasting a recession.

[SailorRob]

Interesting, Macquarie just came out forecasting a recession.

What is their track record of forecasting recessions?

How many times have they forecasted one that hasn't transpired, ones they forecasted that happened, how was their timing?

Given your answer to these questions, why are you posting on a public forum about their forecasts?

[Daytr]

What is their track record of forecasting recessions?

How many times have they forecasted one that hasn't transpired, ones they forecasted that happened, how was their timing?

Given your answer to these questions, why are you posting on a public forum about their forecasts?

I have no idea what their record is, but they certainly aren't permabears.
Macquarie are one of the sharper tools in the Banking industry shed & are often referred to as the Goldman Sachs of the Southern hemisphere.
They generally have very high calibre people and I think about 80% of candidates fail their psyche / entrance exam.
But hey you wouldn't post such silly questions if you had half a clue outside your own little world.
And if you want the answers, go and do your own research.
You really think you click your fingers and people will do your bidding? Its laughable.

This is the bank that I have referred to before without naming that paid 3 people running trading desks $20M each back in the day, probably the equivalent of circa $50M now.

[winner69]

Somebody once said if Macquarie want a recession they get their analysts to ‘call one’ and the economy makes sure one happens

[alokdhir]

Somebody once said if Macquarie want a recession they get their analysts to ‘call one’ and the economy makes sure one happens

Most likely the world is in a recession ...reason of inflation coming down worldwide ...but how deep and how long matters most to companies eps ...at present this recession puts good companies in a " Sweet Spot " labour pressures down ...cost pressures down and ahead rates pressure down ...if the central banks dont OVERPLAY their hand ...it will turn out to be great mate

[Joshuatree]

I have no idea what their record is, but they certainly aren't permabears.
Macquarie are one of the sharper tools in the Banking industry shed & are often referred to as the Goldman Sachs of the Southern hemisphere.
They generally have very high calibre people and I think about 80% of candidates fail their psyche / entrance exam.
But hey you wouldn't post such silly questions if you had half a clue outside your own little world.
And if you want the answers, go and do your own research.

This is the bank that I have referred to before without naming that paid 3 people running trading desks $20M each back in the day, probably the equivalent of circa $50M now.
Thanks for that info.Youre right they have a pretty amazing track record.

[Daytr]

Somebody once said if Macquarie want a recession they get their analysts to ‘call one’ and the economy makes sure one happens

Haha, thats a great line & I assume referring to Australia.
I consulted to them back in the day for about 18 months. It was quite incredible how they created a pressure cooker environment but still managed to get people to work together to produce great outcomes.
They certainly exacted their pound of flesh, but rewarded performance very well.

[SailorRob]

Thanks for that info.Youre right they have a pretty amazing track record.

Where did Day Trader specify that they had an amazing track record?

The record I see is 100% failure.

[Daytr]

Where did Day Trader specify that they had an amazing track record?

The record I see is 100% failure.

I didn't, but who cares is more the point.

[winner69]

I heard to make heaps don't pray for alpha, pray for beta.

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mark-lister-average-sharemarket-returns-are-great-but-returns-are-rarely-average/V2HIFEDWFRBDDE3LT7RIYAOKSE/

Explains very nicely why we shud be always invested ...long termers ...not traders ...INVESTORS ...

I know people question his motive and bias ...but can they question the data provided to back up his views ...I doubt !!!

[SailorRob]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301018463/i-lost-halfamillion-trading-on-the-internet--its-no-different-to-gambling

One of our esteemed commentators springs to mind when I read this.

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301018463/i-lost-halfamillion-trading-on-the-internet--its-no-different-to-gambling

One of our esteemed commentators springs to mind when I read this.

Guy only had one screen so could not have been bull lol

Didn’t mention if he lived on a boat though

[Ggcc]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/301018463/i-lost-halfamillion-trading-on-the-internet--its-no-different-to-gambling

One of our esteemed commentators springs to mind when I read this.
Kind of makes you think how much is enough. Some people feed into the greed of it. I saw a story of an asian student who turned $10,000 onto $27,000,000 million dollars trading over I believe 5 years.. He his now not trading stocks anymore and fully retired. He kept saying you need to be disciplined throughout your trading and reach your end goal.

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mark-lister-average-sharemarket-returns-are-great-but-returns-are-rarely-average/V2HIFEDWFRBDDE3LT7RIYAOKSE/

Explains very nicely why we shud be always invested ...long termers ...not traders ...INVESTORS ...

I know people question his motive and bias ...but can they question the data provided to back up his views ...I doubt !!!

ive posted on these storis before on this thread about the fantasy of long term investing makes you rich when these people use a 100yrs of data. all these stories fail to mention it depends on the time period when you invested of the last 100yrs , when you start and finish and what stocks you owned. just generilized garbage that story.

[bull....]

Guy only had one screen so could not have been bull lol

Didn’t mention if he lived on a boat though

been trading cfd's for 15 yrs and still going but agree they are a very risky product and you really do need to know what you are doing to make money of them in the long run.

[SailorRob]

ive posted on these storis before on this thread about the fantasy of long term investing makes you rich when these people use a 100yrs of data. all these stories fail to mention it depends on the time period when you invested of the last 100yrs , when you start and finish and what stocks you owned. just generilized garbage that story.

Wrong. Look at rolling 10 and 20 year period returns, data is everywhere.

Totally and utterly wrong as usual. With 12 screens you should be able to see it.

[SailorRob]

been trading cfd's for 15 yrs and still going but agree they are a very risky product and you really do need to know what you are doing to make money of them in the long run.

U kan make muni of any fink

[bull....]

Wrong. Look at rolling 10 and 20 year period returns, data is everywhere.

Totally and utterly wrong as usual. With 12 screens you should be able to see it.

i had this discussion with you yonks ago on this thread and produced an article whith data analysis on it and you reluctantly agreed in the end with the article. if i have time at some stage maybe i will go back thru the pages and find it again for you.

[SailorRob]

i had this discussion with you yonks ago on this thread and produced an article whith data analysis on it and you reluctantly agreed in the end with the article. if i have time at some stage maybe i will go back thru the pages and find it again for you.

He's quite obviously talking about the market, not 'what stocks you own' I agreed with nothing related to this. The rolling 20 year data is easy to find.

[Daytr]

https://www.interest.co.nz/saving/deep-freeze-list

[Daytr]

https://newsroom.co.nz/2023/03/15/fisher-funds-loses-80m-in-bank-collapse/

[Hoop]

The year is 2003, you are 45 years old. You read the books and see the much better capital gains and yields in Equities over the long term. You hear those quotes "weighing machine not a voting machine :. Benjamin Graham" "Invest like Buffett" etc that reinforces the Buy and Hold strategy.

Empowered with the knowledge you have learnt from these great fundamental investors (via the media) You have decided upon their advice and use the buy and hold strategy as the "experts" say it pays to ride out the bad times. They also tell you to buy in well established blue chip companies (usually the big companies with well known brands).

Without the aid of a time machine you are (in 2003) setting up a NZ Equity superannuation fund to mature when you are 65 years old (now in 2023).

Using the list below pick (lets say) 10 companies for your superannuation portfolio....good luck :>))

14878

[winner69]

Ok Hoops ..I’ll play

Big companies with well known names …blue chips …thanks for ranking them in size (might have put Blis in otherwise lol)

My portfolio -

Telecom
Contact Energy
Sky City
Fletcher Building
Fisher and Paykel Health
Auckland Airport
Briscoes
Kiwi Property
Steel and Tube
The Warehouse


How much am I worth now I’m retired?

I knew some of those listed wouldn’t last.


I’m

[Valuegrowth]

Ok Hoops ..I’ll play

Big companies with well known names …blue chips …thanks for ranking them in size (might have put Blis in otherwise lol)

My portfolio -

Telecom
Contact Energy
Sky City
Fletcher Building
Fisher and Paykel Health
Auckland Airport
Briscoes
Kiwi Property
Steel and Tube
The Warehouse


How much am I worth now I’m retired?

I knew some of those listed wouldn’t last.


I’m

I really like your portfolio as most of them are Kiwi own. We should buy more and more Kiwi companies in the coming decade in market weakness. By doing that not only we are going to support NZD but also will support the economy by minimizing capital outflow. Another important factor that I will consider in picking stocks is geopolitical issues. It’s not worth to take risk by investing abroad when there are so many unresolved geopolitical issues worldwide. Remember Warrant Buffet sold shares in global chip giant TSMC by considering geopolitical tensions. Locally grown well managed companies are ideal for long term investment in the coming decade. Better to bring foreign funds in the coming years and invest locally when market becomes weak.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.interest.co.nz/saving/deep-freeze-list
I had stocks and debentures of one failed finance company. At that time my investment adviser suggested me to buy debentures of one finance company. Instead, after comparing balance sheets of two finance companies, I bought debentures and stocks of the finance company which had sound fundamentals. When the sector got hit, fortunately, I was able to get my capital from debentures and stocks as it was one of the last companies which went to receiverships.

[SailorRob]

The year is 2003, you are 45 years old. You read the books and see the much better capital gains and yields in Equities over the long term. You hear those quotes "weighing machine not a voting machine :. Benjamin Graham" "Invest like Buffett" etc that reinforces the Buy and Hold strategy.

Empowered with the knowledge you have learnt from these great fundamental investors (via the media) You have decided upon their advice and use the buy and hold strategy as the "experts" say it pays to ride out the bad times. They also tell you to buy in well established blue chip companies (usually the big companies with well known brands).

Without the aid of a time machine you are (in 2003) setting up a NZ Equity superannuation fund to mature when you are 65 years old (now in 2023).

Using the list below pick (lets say) 10 companies for your superannuation portfolio....good luck :>))




Had you in fact done as you have suggested there is no chance you would have been stupid enough to invest your retirement funds in NZ Equities or try and pick your own stocks.

You would simply have invested in a low cost S&P500 index fund.

Then you would have compounded at 10.5% in USD and had a light currency headwind.

You would have had a few hundred grand to invest, let's say 300, and then you would have carefully saved and invested 25k a year.

Now you would have around 4 million dollars.

[SailorRob]

I really like your portfolio as most of them are Kiwi own. We should buy more and more Kiwi companies in the coming decade in market weakness. By doing that not only we are going to support NZD but also will support the economy by minimizing capital outflow. Another important factor that I will consider in picking stocks is geopolitical issues. It’s not worth to take risk by investing abroad when there are so many unresolved geopolitical issues worldwide. Remember Warrant Buffet sold shares in global chip giant TSMC by considering geopolitical tensions. Locally grown well managed companies are ideal for long term investment in the coming decade. Better to bring foreign funds in the coming years and invest locally when market becomes weak.


Is Warrant Buffet any relation to Warren Buffett?

[kiora]

Cheers Hoop
Ouch
I would have gone for top 100 & included MFT & Ebos

Top 50 then I sold IFT & reinvested in IFT W but to make it easier

FPH
IFT
GPG
Trustpower
AIA
Waste Management NZ
Nuplex
POT
Briscoe
Hellaby

[Baa_Baa]

Had you in fact done as you have suggested there is no chance you would have been stupid enough to invest your retirement funds in NZ Equities or try and pick your own stocks.

You would simply have invested in a low cost S&P500 index fund.

Then you would have compounded at 10.5% in USD and had a light currency headwind.

You would have had a few hundred grand to invest, let's say 300, and then you would have carefully saved and invested 25k a year.

Now you would have around 4 million dollars.

This is an awkward and confronting topic, that basically you're saying most of us would have done better with our investing, maybe a lot better, had we been buying a low cost S&P500 index fund. And few will have beaten it.

I'd like to see where this is going with Hoop's challenge, NZX is a backwater bourse and most here reckon they can stock pick and time their entries and exits better than the S&P500 indexes, and do.

Let's see how this unfolds, it could be an interesting insight into long term investing.

[SailorRob]

This is an awkward and confronting topic, that basically you're saying most of us would have done better with our investing, maybe a lot better, had we been buying a low cost S&P500 index fund. And few will have beaten it.

I'd like to see where this is going with Hoop's challenge, NZX is a backwater bourse and most here reckon they can stock pick and time their entries and exits better than the S&P500 indexes, and do.

Let's see how this unfolds, it could be an interesting insight into long term investing.


While we all know that everyone reckons they can sir, you specify that they do.

How do you know this?

[SailorRob]

Actually Baa_baa

Give over. What are you playing at, you've just made the statement that most here can not only pick stocks that beat the S&P500 but can time the market as well.

That is a massive statement.

Back it up.

[Baa_Baa]

While we all know that everyone reckons they can sir, you specify that they do.

How do you know this?

I don't know it for certain, this is an anonymous discussion group after all, it's uncommon to see someone fess-up to losing, though successes are often broadcast.

But as anyone can see, the bulk of the chatter is about NZX listed companies which is hardly surprising as we're in NZ, but very very few traders or investors stray into discussing equities or other investments outside of NZ, or their performance against a broad index like the S&P500.

Just an observation.

I think that the simple measure of investment success that was put forward as 'beat the S&P500' or just buy the index, will be quite confronting to many, assuming they choose to compare their results.

[Baa_Baa]

Actually Baa_baa

Give over. What are you playing at, you've just made the statement that most here can not only pick stocks that beat the S&P500 but can time the market as well.

That is a massive statement.

Back it up.

Are you on the smoke or the rum again? I actually said the opposite, that most will be awkwardly confronted that their stock picking and timing doesn't beat the index.

[SailorRob]

Are you on the smoke or the rum again? I actually said the opposite, that most will be awkwardly confronted that their stock picking and timing doesn't beat the index.


Ok my apologies I thought you must be smoking some good stuff but in fact it is me!

[SailorRob]

Are you on the smoke or the rum again? I actually said the opposite, that most will be awkwardly confronted that their stock picking and timing doesn't beat the index.


Man I must be on some good S*&^ too much time in the bilges with paint fumes. I still can't see how you were saying that but I will take your word for it.

[Baa_Baa]

Man I must be on some good S*&^ too much time in the bilges with paint fumes. I still can't see how you were saying that but I will take your word for it.

I'd like to catch up some time.

I said ... "I think that the simple measure of investment success that was put forward as 'beat the S&P500' or just buy the index, will be quite confronting to many, assuming they choose to compare their results."

Most won't, it's too awkward.

[SailorRob]

I'd like to catch up some time.

I said ... "I think that the simple measure of investment success that was put forward as 'beat the S&P500' or just buy the index, will be quite confronting to many, assuming they choose to compare their results."

Most won't, it's too awkward.

Yeah and I shouldn't have perhaps used the S&P500, the NZ50 would do just as well to prove my point.

Even correctly comparing results isn't easy, the most easy person to fool is yourself.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if you had outperformed an index fund and I think ValueNZ has a good chance as well going forward. I certainly think the next 10 years will be easier to outperform than the last.

[Bjauck]

I'd like to catch up some time.

I said ... "I think that the simple measure of investment success that was put forward as 'beat the S&P500' or just buy the index, will be quite confronting to many, assuming they choose to compare their results."

Most won't, it's too awkward.
On Sharesight I use three ETFs as benchmarks - FNZ (NZX50), IEV (ishares Europe) and IVV (S&P500). Since my first share purchase entry on 31/3/2004 They have returned about 6%, 1%, 8.5% compound p.a. respectively, In NZD values. The European benchmark is definitely the laggard.

[SailorRob]

On Sharesight I use three ETFs as benchmarks - FNZ (NZX50), IEV (ishares Europe) and IVV (S&P500). Since my first share purchase entry on 31/3/2004 They have returned about 6%, 1%, 8.5% compound p.a. respectively, In NZD values. The European benchmark is definitely the laggard.


Yes, a very good timeframe for analysis as well.

How do you find Sharesight for entering historical purchases, like the ones from 2004?

[SailorRob]

Day Traders recession is an interesting one.

Had to park in an area of Bunnings carpark that I didn't even know existed yesterday and my mate in the marine industry has just had 4 phone calls and 8 emails before 8am this morning.

Everyone is still spending up LARGE.

[Bjauck]

Yes, a very good timeframe for analysis as well.

How do you find Sharesight for entering historical purchases, like the ones from 2004? No problem. You just have to make sure any splits, bonus issues and rights issues etc. are accounted for correctly by Sharesight in the intervening period. It has been ok for my few holdings from back then. Dividends were populated correctly.

[SailorRob]

No problem. You just have to make sure any splits, bonus issues and rights issues etc. are accounted for correctly by Sharesight in the intervening period. It has been ok for my few holdings from back then. Dividends were populated correctly.


Ok, impressive, so their software will take care of (or try to) spilts and rights issues even from back then?

So say in 2009 one of your companies was taken over and you got paid cash for your shares, what would it do with the cash? And I guess you have to be careful about money coming into the portfolio from external (like wages etc) vs money from within as that will have an effect on time weighted/money weighted returns.

[Daytr]

Day Traders recession is an interesting one.

Had to park in an area of Bunnings carpark that I didn't even know existed yesterday and my mate in the marine industry has just had 4 phone calls and 8 emails before 8am this morning.

Everyone is still spending up LARGE.

I looked out the window & the sun was shining.
And now I'm a weather forecaster.

And stop making things up. I merely countered your claim that the economy is on fire. But keep digging that hole.
What do they say about a clock being right ???

Speaking of Bunnings, their latest new build in Northland, which I believe has an $11M Capex, sounds like a good news story.
However the main contractor just went bust, owing money of course to subcontractors.

[Bjauck]

Ok, impressive, so their software will take care of (or try to) spilts and rights issues even from back then?

So say in 2009 one of your companies was taken over and you got paid cash for your shares, what would it do with the cash? And I guess you have to be careful about money coming into the portfolio from external (like wages etc) vs money from within as that will have an effect on time weighted/money weighted returns.The proceeds from dividends from your investment are not automatically reinvested however if sharesight has already loaded a dividend reinvestment plan for the particular holding it will automatically calculate your drip shares, if you want it to. With a takeover likewise you will need to manually enter what you do with the proceeds.

The Benchmark ETF’s have dividends which likewise are not automatically reinvested unless requested.

Many investors add to or subtract from holdings at various times and may or may not take up a Drip. That does not detract from the usefulness of benchmarks for their portfolio. Sharesight does also allow you to calculate performance while ignoring investment sales for the period selected.

[SailorRob]

The proceeds from dividends from your investment are not automatically reinvested however if sharesight has already loaded a dividend reinvestment plan for the particular holding it will automatically calculate your drip shares, if you want it to. With a takeover likewise you will need to manually enter what you do with the proceeds.

The Benchmark ETF’s have dividends which likewise are not automatically reinvested unless requested.

Many investors add to or subtract from holdings at various times and may or may not take up a Drip. That does not detract from the usefulness of benchmarks for their portfolio. Sharesight does also allow you to calculate performance while ignoring investment sales for the period selected.

Thanks for the information.

[bull....]

He's quite obviously talking about the market, not 'what stocks you own' I agreed with nothing related to this. The rolling 20 year data is easy to find.

here's the article again , rubbishes anything said by you or your mate at craig's

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/buy-and-hold-investing-is-it-a-one-size-fits-all-solution/

[Daytr]

here's the article again , rubbishes anything said by you or your mate at craig's

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/buy-and-hold-investing-is-it-a-one-size-fits-all-solution/

Good article Bull.
As it states, entry point is key.
I chaired a Charity a few years back & we had raised quite a bit of money & looking to invest.
Virtually the entire board was just prepared to fork it over to an investment manager without any consideration to entry level.

I also like that line, that there is more than one way to invest. Someone on here needs to learn that.

[Rawz]

here's the article again , rubbishes anything said by you or your mate at craig's

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/buy-and-hold-investing-is-it-a-one-size-fits-all-solution/

thanks for sharing thats a good read.

Reminds me of the pig farmer story. It goes something like the pig farmer reads in the paper that the stock market has crashed and its the end of days, so he goes to town and gets his broker to buy up lots of stocks. Then he goes back to the farm to look after the pigs.

A few years later he reads in the paper that the stock market is breaking new records and everyone is happy and going on holidays and buying boats. So the pig farmer goes to town and tells his broker to sell all his stocks....

Pig farmer ended up very wealthy repeating this

[SailorRob]

https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1730999386535268443?s=20

Day Traders mates

[SailorRob]

thanks for sharing thats a good read.

Reminds me of the pig farmer story. It goes something like the pig farmer reads in the paper that the stock market has crashed and its the end of days, so he goes to town and gets his broker to buy up lots of stocks. Then he goes back to the farm to look after the pigs.

A few years later he reads in the paper that the stock market is breaking new records and everyone is happy and going on holidays and buying boats. So the pig farmer goes to town and tells his broker to sell all his stocks....

Pig farmer ended up very wealthy repeating this

The market timing pig farmer!

[Daytr]

https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1730999386535268443?s=20

Day Traders mates

Yep I was short on ICE.

[SailorRob]

Yep I was short on ICE.

Worse than your Gold short 🤣🤣

[Daytr]

Worse than your Gold short 🤣🤣

I think that pun went straight over your head.

My gold short, a hedge against my gold stocks did what it was supposed to do.
I enjoyed the gap this morning to reset.

[SailorRob]

I think that pun went straight over your head.

My gold short, a hedge against my gold stocks did what it was supposed to do.
I enjoyed the gap this morning to reset.

Yes yes, you can't lose with any of your trades no matter what Day Trader. Everyone believes you, it's all good.

[Daytr]

Yes yes, you can't lose with any of your trades no matter what Day Trader. Everyone believes you, it's all good.

Oh no I lost on the trade.
But it's a small in comparison to my gold stocks position.
But I don't care what you believe.
I'm not here to prove something to anyone which seems to be your fixation.
Reeks of insecurity.

How many posts do you make that completely waste people's time?
80%? 90%?

[SailorRob]

Oh no I lost on the trade.
But it's a small in comparison to my gold stocks position.
But I don't care what you believe.
I'm not here to prove something to anyone which seems to be your fixation.
Reeks of insecurity.

How many posts do you make that completely waste people's time?
80%? 90%?


Probably 80% of my posts are calling you out.

[Daytr]

Probably 80% of my posts are calling you out.

Haha thanks for reinforcing my point.

[winner69]

US markets place to be now …but hasnt always been the case

[percy]

US markets place to be now …but hasnt always been the case


Some one does not think so....

https://livewiremarketsptyltd.cmail20.com/t/j-l-sthulty-ydtteyktj-j/

[Daytr]

Some one does not think so....

https://livewiremarketsptyltd.cmail20.com/t/j-l-sthulty-ydtteyktj-j/

Thanks Percy that's a good read.

[winner69]

Thanks Percy that's a good read.


Barramundi my friend

[Daytr]

Barramundi my friend

Huh? You lost me?

[ValueNZ]

Deleted...

[SailorRob]

Deleted...


If your post was about Percys article being the stupidest thing you ever read....

[alokdhir]

Summary


We’ve been warning since the RBNZ’s pause back in May that a pause is not necessarily a peak, though we recently transferred another hike from our central forecast to the top of the risk basket. There are good reasons for the RBNZ to be worried and impatient, but also solid signs of progress in the inflation battle. Weighing it up, the RBNZ’s November MPS signalled a low bar to further hikes, with the Committee’s OCR track implying a hike in February is pretty much a coin toss.
The RBNZ explicitly warned that any more delays to getting inflation down would likely result in a rate hike. With that warning ringing in our ears, in this note we discuss the data flow in the long break between now and the February Monetary Policy Statement, highlighting the possible hurdles and nuances around the coming data with respect to a possible hike in February, or at least keeping the prospect of hikes alive.
As we’ve noted before, the RBNZ seems unlikely to kickstart the hiking machine again for the sake of just 25bps, as if that’s all that’s perceived to be needed, then just holding a little longer is a perfectly good substitute. Unless the facts change (always a live possibility!), if the RBNZ does hike in February (or after that), chances are they’ll go again.
What are the odds that hiking again would be a ‘mistake’? in the narrow sense of CPI inflation undershooting 2% due to a bit more hiking – one would have to say “remote”. But insofar as it might result in the RBNZ cutting earlier due to a harder landing than anticipated (or strictly necessary): could well be. But the RBNZ may well consider that an acceptable risk to take, given the known real costs of not getting on top of inflation in a timely manner.


Pros and Cons of short term rates outlook ...by only bank in hikes camp ...But seems both sides covered well ...imho ...no more hikes anywhere coming !!

[Daytr]

Summary


We’ve been warning since the RBNZ’s pause back in May that a pause is not necessarily a peak, though we recently transferred another hike from our central forecast to the top of the risk basket. There are good reasons for the RBNZ to be worried and impatient, but also solid signs of progress in the inflation battle. Weighing it up, the RBNZ’s November MPS signalled a low bar to further hikes, with the Committee’s OCR track implying a hike in February is pretty much a coin toss.
The RBNZ explicitly warned that any more delays to getting inflation down would likely result in a rate hike. With that warning ringing in our ears, in this note we discuss the data flow in the long break between now and the February Monetary Policy Statement, highlighting the possible hurdles and nuances around the coming data with respect to a possible hike in February, or at least keeping the prospect of hikes alive.
As we’ve noted before, the RBNZ seems unlikely to kickstart the hiking machine again for the sake of just 25bps, as if that’s all that’s perceived to be needed, then just holding a little longer is a perfectly good substitute. Unless the facts change (always a live possibility!), if the RBNZ does hike in February (or after that), chances are they’ll go again.
What are the odds that hiking again would be a ‘mistake’? in the narrow sense of CPI inflation undershooting 2% due to a bit more hiking – one would have to say “remote”. But insofar as it might result in the RBNZ cutting earlier due to a harder landing than anticipated (or strictly necessary): could well be. But the RBNZ may well consider that an acceptable risk to take, given the known real costs of not getting on top of inflation in a timely manner.


Pros and Cons of short term rates outlook ...by only bank in hikes camp ...But seems both sides covered well ...imho ...no more hikes anywhere coming !!



Anything is possible, however I suspect the RBNZ will just wait out the impact of the current rates as more people roll their mortgages onto the double or almost triple rates they had previously locked in. Still billions to be sucked out of the economy.

[SailorRob]

Anything is possible, however I suspect the RBNZ will just wait out the impact of the current rates as more people roll their mortgages onto the double or almost triple rates they had previously locked in. Still billions to be sucked out of the economy.


And billions to be pumped in.

One persons debt is another persons asset.

[Paint it Black]

And billions to be pumped in.

One persons debt is another persons asset.
Australia's unfortunately!

[Bjauck]

And billions to be pumped in.

One persons debt is another persons asset. NZers pay the interest to mostly Australian-owned institutions whose profit margins end up mostly overseas in Australia or elsewhere. But sure there are some bond and term deposit holders in NZ.

[SailorRob]

NZers pay the interest to mostly Australian-owned institutions whose profit margins end up mostly overseas in Australia or elsewhere. But sure there are some term deposit holders in NZ.


Yes on the margin, but what about the capital providers on the debt side?

So all the term depositors etc... lots within NZ.

Margins haven't changed much if at all, ROE remains the same.

[Daytr]

And billions to be pumped in.

One persons debt is another persons asset.

Yes but most cash investors do exactly that, sit on cash.
Whereas mortgage holders, typically younger spend those dollars, on house renovations, entertainment, buying the new boat I.e that money is circulated on multiple occasions all the while adding value to it.

[SailorRob]

Yes but most cash investors do exactly that, sit on cash.
Whereas mortgage holders, typically younger spend those dollars, on house renovations, entertainment, buying the new boat I.e that money is circulated on multiple occasions all the while adding value to it.

Nah I'd say a lot of the massive spending boom is boomers that are finally earning 'income' the million dollar term deposit is generating cash to be spent.

[Daytr]

I have moved my Super back to cash capitalizing on the recent gains in US markets. I think it's going to be a slow few months over Nthn summer & Christmas holidays etc. And it looks like markets may pull back from their recent gains.
Happy to earn 5.5% pa over the next few months & then might look at bonds in the outlook of lower rates, or back to global equities or a mixture of both if I see an opportunity.

[SailorRob]

I have moved my Super back to cash capitalizing on the recent gains in US markets. I think it's going to be a slow few months over Nthn summer & Christmas holidays etc. And it looks like markets may pull back from their recent gains.
Happy to earn 5.5% pa over the next few months & then might look at bonds in the outlook of lower rates, or back to global equities or a mixture of both if I see an opportunity.

Nobody cares about how you try to trade your kiwisaver...

Let us know when you've more than doubled yours in less than 3 years like I have.

[Paint it Black]

Yes on the margin, but what about the capital providers on the debt side?

So all the term depositors etc... lots within NZ.

Margins haven't changed much if at all, ROE remains the same.

I'll keep my term deposits with TSB and KiwiBank - rates are as good as or better than ANZ, WestPac, BNZ and ASB. Trying to do my small bit in reducing the Australian bank pillage.

[SailorRob]

I'll keep my term deposits with TSB and KiwiBank - rates are as good as or better than ANZ, WestPac, BNZ and ASB. Trying to do my small bit it reducing the Australian bank pillage.

Yep but why do you have term deposits?

You're just going to get cleaned out. The debt isn't restricted in supply and you'll always be on the wrong side, real returns your going way backwards.

Explained well here from 24 mins in.

I'm listening to This Week in Intelligent Investing | The Bond Market from a Value Investor’s Perspective on Podbean, check it out! https://www.podbean.com/ea/pb-pmi9u-14f0abc

[Paint it Black]

Yep but why do you have term deposits?

You're just going to get cleaned out. The debt isn't restricted in supply and you'll always be on the wrong side, real returns your going way backwards.

Explained well here from 24 mins in.

I'm listening to This Week in Intelligent Investing | The Bond Market from a Value Investor’s Perspective on Podbean, check it out! https://www.podbean.com/ea/pb-pmi9u-14f0abc

Thanks - have started listening to it and will continue when more time. Seems to be focusing on avoiding longer term bonds which I'm not interested in. I keep my term deposits to no more than 12 mths with staggered maturity while continuing to hold more value in shares patiently waiting for the upswing while switching out of some stagnant ETF's into one or two severely undervalued stocks. I've enjoyed receiving the latest round of bank interest payments even after the RWT deductions - better than shares this last year or so!

[SailorRob]

Thanks - have started listening to it and will continue when more time. Seems to be focusing on avoiding longer term bonds which I'm not interested in. I keep my term deposits to no more than 12 mths with staggered maturity while continuing to hold more value in shares patiently waiting for the upswing while switching out of some stagnant ETF's into one or two severely undervalued stocks. I've enjoyed receiving the latest round of bank interest payments even after the RWT deductions - better than shares this last year or so!

Makes sense, cheers.

[Daytr]

Nobody cares about how you try to trade your kiwisaver...

Let us know when you've more than doubled yours in less than 3 years like I have.

Speaking for everyone?
The ego is strong in this one.

But you have said previously no one gets those sorts of returns that you speak of.

My return has been 15.4% p.a after tax over an eight year period.
I haven't updated it recently but after the latest surge in US equities that I rode would make that return around 17% p.a. now, again after tax.

[SailorRob]

Speaking for everyone?
The ego is strong in this one.

But you have said previously no one gets those sorts of returns that you speak of.

My return has been 15.4% p.a after tax over an eight year period.
I haven't updated it recently but after the latest surge in US equities that I rode would make that return around 17% p.a. now, again after tax.

Again who cares about your kiwisaver, what counts is total net worth.

What rate have you reduced it at over the 8 years.

[ValueNZ]

Speaking for everyone?
The ego is strong in this one.

But you have said previously no one gets those sorts of returns that you speak of.

My return has been 15.4% p.a after tax over an eight year period.
I haven't updated it recently but after the latest surge in US equities that I rode would make that return around 17% p.a. now, again after tax.
So to clarify that isn't a CAGR but just an average of your yearly returns? So your return is 0.17*8= 1.36 or 136% in 8 years?

SP500 was $2005 8 years ago in 2015, today it is $4566 representing a 127% increase in 8 years. But in that same time the nzd has depreciated against the usd from 0.67 to 0.62, bringing the return in NZD to 137%. Now if you had also reinvested dividends during this time the total return would be 183%.

Sorry to say but you were better off buying a low cost index fund rather than wasting time and effort trading your Kiwisaver... But provide proof of that 17% being a CAGR (a screenshot of your kiwisaver returns would suffice) and I'll delete my post.

[Daytr]

So to clarify that isn't a CAGR but just an average of your yearly returns? So your return is 0.17*8= 1.36 or 136% in 8 years?

SP500 was $2005 8 years ago in 2015, today it is $4566 representing a 127% increase in 8 years. But in that same time the nzd has depreciated against the usd from 0.67 to 0.62, bringing the return in NZD to 137%. Now if you had also reinvested dividends during this time the total return would be 183%.

Sorry to say but you were better off buying a low cost index fund rather than wasting time and effort trading your Kiwisaver... But provide proof of that 17% being a CAGR (a screenshot of your kiwisaver returns would suffice) and I'll delete my post.

Gawd you are turning into a SailorRob mini me & picking up all his worst traits.

You ask me a question.
You then go & answer it yourself with a bunch of assumptions. 🤣🤣🤣
I just updated my Supa calculator & it's actually about 16%, but that's a compounding return.

I have stated my returns, if they are not as great as you make out, why would you need a screen shot you will never get.

But to answer one question, this return does include reinvested dividends and also cost of management fees. But you should know this right?
Name a Kiwisaver fund where dividends are paid out? That would be drawing down of your Kiwisaver, but that's just a basic understanding.

Did you miss the bit about being after tax returns?

As it's my NZ based Kiwisaver the NZX50 is a better comparison, however I don't really care what someone else or something else has done. I am happy with my returns.

For some reason both SailorRob & yourself think others need to prove things to you.
I have news for you, no one cares what you believe or don't.
Hey but that's just how the real world works.

No need to delete your post, in fact please keep it up as it for everyone to see as it says a lot about your personality.

[SailorRob]

Gawd you are turning into a SailorRob mini me & picking up all his worst traits.

You ask me a question.
You then go & answer it yourself with a bunch of assumptions. 🤣🤣🤣

I have stated my returns, if they are not as great as you make out, why would you need a screen shot you will never get.

But to answer one question, this return does include reinvested dividends and also cost of management fees. But you should know this right?
Name a Kiwisaver fund where dividends are paid out? That would be drawing down of your Kiwisaver, but that's just a basic understanding.

Did you miss the bit about being after tax returns?

As it's my NZ based Kiwisaver the NZX50 is a better comparison, however I don't really care what someone else or something else has done. I am happy with my returns.

For some reason both SailorRob & yourself think others need to prove things to you.
I have news for you, no one cares what you believe or don't.
Hey but that's just how the real world works.

No need to delete your post, in fact please keep it up as it for everyone to see as it says a lot about your personality.

I have no reason not to believe you about these returns.

But you have said you have three separate 'strategies' (three portfolios) a kiwisaver fund, a small business and presumably a house.

Sure, one of these multiple 'bets' is going to look OK.

But.

What matters is overall.

Otherwise you're just telling us about your winners.

Just because something is NZ based doesn't mean it should be compared against a NZ equity index at all.

Not at all.

Just an excuse for crappy performance.

[SailorRob]

Gawd you are turning into a SailorRob mini me & picking up all his worst traits.

You ask me a question.
You then go & answer it yourself with a bunch of assumptions. 🤣🤣🤣

I have stated my returns, if they are not as great as you make out, why would you need a screen shot you will never get.

But to answer one question, this return does include reinvested dividends and also cost of management fees. But you should know this right?
Name a Kiwisaver fund where dividends are paid out? That would be drawing down of your Kiwisaver, but that's just a basic understanding.

Did you miss the bit about being after tax returns?

As it's my NZ based Kiwisaver the NZX50 is a better comparison, however I don't really care what someone else or something else has done. I am happy with my returns.

For some reason both SailorRob & yourself think others need to prove things to you.
I have news for you, no one cares what you believe or don't.
Hey but that's just how the real world works.

No need to delete your post, in fact please keep it up as it for everyone to see as it says a lot about your personality.


'as its my NZ based kiwisaver that I day trade the US markets with, the NZ index is a better benchmark. 🤣🤣

[Daytr]

'as its my NZ based kiwisaver that I day trade the US markets with, the NZ index is a better benchmark. 🤣🤣

Well none of that is correct.

[Daytr]

I have no reason not to believe you about these returns.

But you have said you have three separate 'strategies' (three portfolios) a kiwisaver fund, a small business and presumably a house.

Sure, one of these multiple 'bets' is going to look OK.

But.

What matters is overall.

Otherwise you're just telling us about your winners.

Just because something is NZ based doesn't mean it should be compared against a NZ equity index at all.

Not at all.

Just an excuse for crappy performance.

Turning $1000 for example into $2,850 after tax in 8 years I would hardly say is crappy performance, but there are always other places you can get better returns.
I have never claimed to be the best investor of all time or claimed I am a good investor at all. I just state what I do and for some reason you think you are entitled to criticize that.

This daily merry go round is really tedious & my time is far too valuable for the tedium you offer.

[SailorRob]

Turning $1000 for example into $2,850 after tax in 8 years I would hardly say is crappy performance, but there are always other places you can get better returns.
I have never claimed to be the best investor of all time or claimed I am a good investor at all. I just state what I do and for some reason you think you are entitled to criticize that.

This daily merry go round is really tedious & my time is far too valuable for the tedium you offer.

At best it's mediocrity considering the general market.

But as I say with multiple portfolios you can always harp about your highest performer while the rest lose money.

I agree you've never directly claimed you're any good but reckon you're a former pro and all of that. Which by definition means you're crap.

[Daytr]

At best it's mediocrity considering the general market.

But as I say with multiple portfolios you can always harp about your highest performer while the rest lose money.

I agree you've never directly claimed you're any good but reckon you're a former pro and all of that. Which by definition means you're crap.

Please keep going.
It's just brilliant analysis.

[SailorRob]

Please keep going.
It's just brilliant analysis.

Nothing brilliant, just common sense and rational analysis.

[Daytr]

Nothing brilliant, just common sense and rational analysis.

The sarcasm didn't go over your head but you still felt the need to justify yourself.
Rational has nothing to do with it you are fixated. In fact to anyone looking in, your fixation with me is quite irrational.

I don't have to state if those returns after tax are good or bad.
It's up to me if I happy considering the risk / reward & yes I am happy with those returns.

It's also up to me if I want to write on this thread what I am doing with my portfolios, when I like.

I'm not sure where you get off thinking you can dictate what people want to publish on here.

[Daytr]

At best it's mediocrity considering the general market.

But as I say with multiple portfolios you can always harp about your highest performer while the rest lose money.

I agree you've never directly claimed you're any good but reckon you're a former pro and all of that. Which by definition means you're crap.

You realize you just called Buffet & Monger crap. I will wait to see what pert of this response triggers you most.

Off for a nice lunch by the sea.

[RTM]

Turning $1000 for example into $2,850 after tax in 8 years I would hardly say is crappy performance, but there are always other places you can get better returns.
I have never claimed to be the best investor of all time or claimed I am a good investor at all. I just state what I do and for some reason you think you are entitled to criticize that.

This daily merry go round is really tedious & my time is far too valuable for the tedium you offer.

The answer for you seems to be pretty simple. Just don’t respond. Don’t !

[SailorRob]

You realize you just called Buffet & Monger crap. I will wait to see what pert of this response triggers you most.

Off for a nice lunch by the sea.

*realise

*Buffett

*Munger

*Part

[SailorRob]

You realize you just called Buffet & Monger crap. I will wait to see what pert of this response triggers you most.

Off for a nice lunch by the sea.

When you're running a trillion it's pretty commendable but I think you're talking about the stock price which is something totally different to their EPS growth and return on their shareholders funds.

Will be beyond your level of understanding but you can learn.

[Daytr]

*realise

*Buffett

*Munger

*Part

Thanks for confirming what triggered you the most. 🤣

[bull....]

Speaking for everyone?
The ego is strong in this one.

But you have said previously no one gets those sorts of returns that you speak of.

My return has been 15.4% p.a after tax over an eight year period.
I haven't updated it recently but after the latest surge in US equities that I rode would make that return around 17% p.a. now, again after tax.

pretty good results there.

[Daytr]

The answer for you seems to be pretty simple. Just don’t respond. Don’t !

Yep, but I just see it as sport.
Probably not a good side of my nature toying with someone so reactive. Mea culpa.

[Daytr]

pretty good results there.

Thanks Bull. I'm happy & that's all that counts.

[alokdhir]

https://www.morningstar.com.au/insights/personal-finance/243538/does-timing-the-market-work

[Joshuatree]

Nobody cares about how you try to trade your kiwisaver.

Let us know when you've more than doubled yours in less than 3 years like I have.

You're not the appointed spokesman here.
Please speak for yourself and not the rest of us.I value both of your sharings except for all the narcicisst type tit for tat schoolboy reactionary behaviour.

[bull....]

yep sailor boy just pis.ed that daytr is doing better than him. by a country mile obviously the way he carries on.

[SailorRob]

You're not the appointed spokesman here.
Please speak for yourself and not the rest of us.I value both of your sharings except for all the narcicisst type tit for tat schoolboy reactionary behaviour.

Leave ValueNZ out of this!

[Valuegrowth]

https://moneywise.com/investing/investing-basics/worst-investments-in-history

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.ipe.com/news/institutional-investors-see-geopolitical-bad-actors-as-2024-economic-threat/10070497.article

[SailorRob]

You're not the appointed spokesman here.
Please speak for yourself and not the rest of us.I value both of your sharings except for all the narcicisst type tit for tat schoolboy reactionary behaviour.


I'll be pretty clear here, no rational individual cares about how a random dude from the internet called 'Day Trader' trades his KiwiSaver portfolio. Period.

What you are doing is taking acceptation to Sailors arrogance which I understand and is fair enough.

But, if you go somewhere quiet and consider for yourself if you actually take any notice or care any about Day Traders KiwiSaver portfolio trading, the answer is NO.

What would your family if you have one, say if you told them there is a random dude off the internet called Day Trader who has posted about how he had traded his KiwiSaver and you care about it. Not only do you care about it but enough to try and shutdown someone else who says you don't.

If you are even a partly rational individual then what Day Trader says he's done with his KiwiSaver portfolio will have NO effect on decisions you make with your capital that you have had to work hard for.

Nobody knows what the short term movements in markets will be. NOBODY.

So as I said... Nobody cares. Some may think they do or not like me speaking for them but the reality is they do not. If we had a debate on the subject I would make you look ridiculous very quickly.

Stay rational at all times, this is the real world and we are talking about real money. Day Traders KiwiSaver trading musings CANNOT help you.

[Daytr]

"after the latest surge in US equities that I rode"

"As it's my NZ based Kiwisaver the NZX50 is a better comparison"

Which one is it?

Well the last six months when my exposure was to equities both international & domestic, perhaps the S&P, but as it's a basket so I don't know what the percentage is of US, Aussie & Kiwi investments were made.
For the other 7.5 years it was pretty much domestic focused. So overall the NZX50 is probably a better comparison.

Not that I care about comparisons. I just care about my own return for the risk & the risk is relatively low.

[Daytr]

You're not the appointed spokesman here.
Please speak for yourself and not the rest of us.I value both of your sharings except for all the narcicisst type tit for tat schoolboy reactionary behaviour.


yep sailor boy just pis.ed that daytr is doing better than him. by a country mile obviously the way he carries on.

Thanks both.
I honestly don't know if I am doing better than anyone else & I don't really care.
I would hope we are all just sharing ideas that others can benefit from to make money.

But apparently I'm a communist! 🤣

[Joshuatree]

I'll be pretty clear here, no rational individual cares about how a random dude from the internet called 'Day Trader' trades his KiwiSaver portfolio. Period.

What you are doing is taking acceptation to Sailors arrogance which I understand and is fair enough.

But, if you go somewhere quiet and consider for yourself if you actually take any notice or care any about Day Traders KiwiSaver portfolio trading, the answer is NO.

What would your family if you have one, say if you told them there is a random dude off the internet called Day Trader who has posted about how he had traded his KiwiSaver and you care about it. Not only do you care about it but enough to try and shutdown someone else who says you don't.

If you are even a partly rational individual then what Day Trader says he's done with his KiwiSaver portfolio will have NO effect on decisions you make with your capital that you have had to work hard for.

Nobody knows what the short term movements in markets will be. NOBODY.

So as I said... Nobody cares. Some may think they do or not like me speaking for them but the reality is they do not. If we had a debate on the subject I would make you look ridiculous very quickly.

Stay rational at all times, this is the real world and we are talking about real money. Day Traders KiwiSaver trading musings CANNOT help you.

Speak for yourself
"I don't care"

[SailorRob]

Speak for yourself
"I don't care"

As I clearly explained, I'm speaking for you.

If you disagree with that, please explain the reasons why you care about how day trader trades his kiwisaver and specifically how you use this information.

[SailorRob]

Speak for yourself
"I don't care"

Essentially what I am saying is that you are NOT a moron. But you could convince me that you are if you explain how and why you care about a random Internet dudes posts about day trading his kiwisaver.

[Daytr]

Essentially what I am saying is that you are NOT a moron. But you could convince me that you are if you explain how and why you care about a random Internet dudes posts about day trading his kiwisaver.

Aren't you a random internet dude?
Aren't we all?
If people don't care, fine ignore it & move on.
I certainly don't care.
I'm not looking for affirmation.

[SailorRob]

Aren't you a random internet dude?
Aren't we all?
If people don't care, fine ignore it & move on.
I certainly don't care.
I'm not looking for affirmation.

Yep this is my point.

Just read The Intelligent Investor once a year and chill.

[SailorRob]

Aren't you a random internet dude?
Aren't we all?
If people don't care, fine ignore it & move on.
I certainly don't care.
I'm not looking for affirmation.

I'm slightly less random as only 95% of what I post is unintelligible gibberish.

[bull....]

sharesies offer trading kiwisaver now. create your own and trade it so i guess some people will want to hear off random dudes how they going trading there kiwisaver.

[Daytr]

sharesies offer trading kiwisaver now. create your own and trade it so i guess some people will want to hear off random dudes how they going trading there kiwisaver.

Hey Bull, shifting investment strategies periodically is hardly trading.
It's just proactive management.

[alokdhir]

New Gemini from Google is surely showing AI can increase productivity of all existent people oriented processes and supply chains and production lines

Supply is not going to be an issue sooner then thought as labour is not going to be that needed to produce ...INFLATION will be conquered by supply ...no need demand destruction ....thus no need rates bitter pills .

GDPs will soar ...great companies will do exceptionally well ...stocks will soar ...long term Bull cycle here we start .

Only catch is how will masses get money if no need of labour to produce . But inflation being controlled thru supply side can be seen easily !!

[Daytr]

New Gemini from Google is surely showing AI can increase productivity of all existent people oriented processes and supply chains and production lines

Supply is not going to be an issue sooner then thought as labour is not going to be that needed to produce ...INFLATION will be conquered by supply ...no need demand destruction ....thus no need rates bitter pills .

GDPs will soar ...great companies will do exceptionally well ...stocks will soar ...long term Bull cycle here we start .

Only catch is how will masses get money if no need of labour to produce . But inflation being controlled thru supply side can be seen easily !!

War against the machines.

[mike2020]

Universal wage. I am all for it. It was promised 40 years ago tech would make our lives easier and I clearly remember my 5th form teacher telling us our biggest problem was going to be what to do with all our leisure time. FINALLY.

[alokdhir]

Universal wage. I am all for it. It was promised 40 years ago tech would make our lives easier and I clearly remember my 5th form teacher telling us our biggest problem was going to be what to do with all our leisure time. FINALLY.

Study closely the UAE society ...most citizens are rich as they are born rich due the fact they citizens of UAE ...workers are immigrants who never get citizenship rights or privileges but get paid well to be working ...money comes from natural resources of the country ...now workers will be machines ...so no oppression also ...lol ...really can happen in next 10-20 years if all goes well

[Daytr]

Universal wage. I am all for it. It was promised 40 years ago tech would make our lives easier and I clearly remember my 5th form teacher telling us our biggest problem was going to be what to do with all our leisure time. FINALLY.

Now that sounds like communism....
Who funds the UBI? Large taxes on the big tech firms? It's not something America does.
Survival of the fittest is more their modus operandi.

What we have seen with tech over the last 40 years is it has been responsible for creating far more jobs than it has replaced.
But I do get the feeling that the pace & breadth of the change may create a different outcome this time around.

[mike2020]

Pensions dont have a long history. Late 1800s from memory. I bet the same questions were asked when the welfare state was introduced. Progress happens organically as well as by necessity. I think you have short termism.

[Daytr]

This is a KiwiSaver we're talking about.

After it was pointed out that you, the "international day trader", had missed out on a year of incredible gains in the US markets by sitting on the sidelines, you steadfastly stated that your KiwiSaver was NZ only and that was because of your highly knowledgeable and professional international trading and you were hedging that risk by not touching US equities in your KiwiSaver.

You make "statements" and then forget what statements you've made. You made it clear that your KiwiSaver was purely NZ-based.

But that has changed to:

"Well the last six months when my exposure was to equities both international & domestic, perhaps the S&P, but as it's a basket so I don't know what the percentage is of US, Aussie & Kiwi investments were made."

What is this KiwiSaver fund? What is the actual name of it? The provider, and the fund name.

As for this:

"For the other 7.5 years it was pretty much domestic focused. So overall the NZX50 is probably a better comparison. "

How can it be "pretty much domestic focused"?

What was this KiwiSaver fund? What was the actual name of it? The provider, and the fund name.

I suggest you are making completely false statements regarding your KiwiSaver investment just as you have about your "international day trading".

What is it Azz back a day or two from your ban and you are already trolling me?
Did you miss me that much?

The rest buddy, I'm not going to waste my valuable time on.

[Panda-NZ-]

Only catch is how will masses get money if no need of labour to produce . But inflation being controlled thru supply side can be seen easily !!

Soverign wealth fund then dstribute the gains to the masses. Then tax some things more too (its not helpful to rely on single sources of income).

[Daytr]

Don't address the facts in my post, the ones that outline your dishonesty; instead utilize abuse and the childish accusation of "trolling". Imagine you in court, on the stand, as you're hit with question after question - and you reply with, "You're a troll!"

You have a bizarre definition of what a fact is.

But I will give you a couple.
You have been banned twice or more.

What is the definition of trying the same thing again & again & expecting a different outcome?

Adios, it's been short & ugly.

[SailorRob]

My posts on your dishonesty are warnings to the people on this site. This is an investment/trading discussion website. Dishonesty has no place on it.

Yep that's why I always take the time to hold him to account as well, try and warn and protect the people that get easily taken for a ride.

Such as those posting that they care about how he trades kiwisaver.

Need to get with the program and fast.

[Relaxed]

What we have seen with tech over the last 40 years is it has been responsible for creating far more jobs than it has replaced.
But I do get the feeling that the pace & breadth of the change may create a different outcome this time around.

A couple of articles from quite some time ago make the point about job creation through technology.
It's kind of obvious really, if 80% of people used to work on the land and now less than 5% do, then unemployment should be 75% or more.
clearly it's not, so jobs must have been created.
(Actually we've created even more jobs than that because over that time period women have entered the paid workforce)

the issue, as I see it, is that the jobs created are not necessarily available to the same people whose jobs have been eliminated. A farrier from the early 1900's isn't going to suddenly start maintaining cars in 1925 without a lot of training.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/17/technology-created-more-jobs-than-destroyed-140-years-data-census

https://techcrunch.com/2016/05/13/robots-wont-just-take-jobs-theyll-create-them/

[Daytr]

A couple of articles from quite some time ago make the point about job creation through technology.
It's kind of obvious really, if 80% of people used to work on the land and now less than 5% do, then unemployment should be 75% or more.
clearly it's not, so jobs must have been created.
(Actually we've created even more jobs than that because over that time period women have entered the paid workforce)

the issue, as I see it, is that the jobs created are not necessarily available to the same people whose jobs have been eliminated. A farrier from the early 1900's isn't going to suddenly start maintaining cars in 1925 without a lot of training.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/17/technology-created-more-jobs-than-destroyed-140-years-data-census

https://techcrunch.com/2016/05/13/robots-wont-just-take-jobs-theyll-create-them/

Yes that's certainly going to be an issue, transition & the speed of.
It could end up a bit like Thatcher's England & the coal miners.
Leisure consultants might be a booming industry!

[Relaxed]

Yes that's certainly going to be an issue, transition & the speed of.
It could end up a bit like Thatcher's England & the coal miners.
Leisure consultants might be a booming industry!

when I was at school we all wanted to be a 'Sand Biologist'.........
or Beach Bum :)

a great idea but I couldn't figure out how to make it pay for food, house, family etc etc.

[Panda-NZ-]

A couple of articles from quite some time ago make the point about job creation through technology.
It's kind of obvious really, if 80% of people used to work on the land and now less than 5% do, then unemployment should be 75% or more.
clearly it's not, so jobs must have been created.
(Actually we've created even more jobs than that because over that time period women have entered the paid workforce)
]

What if 80% used to work, and now less than 5% do (in 2050).

We'll get there eventually. I'm not familiar with how robotics is progressing but I imagine physical jobs like trades etc will be last to go. Though to counteract this, in theory it is possible to mass manufacture homes and turn the process into an assembly line then put together the modular "parts" in only a few days on-site which cuts out alot of the current nonsense.

Who could have predicted artists and creative writers would be first to go. It's unpredictable I suppose.

[Relaxed]

What if 80% used to work, and now less than 5% do (in 2050).

Who could have predicted artists and creative writers would be first to go. It's unpredictable I suppose.

I honestly don't know and yes, it is unpredictable.

No one predicted what has happened over the last 150 years either. in the 50s and 60s they were all told that we'd have massive amounts of free time and little actual work would be required.
instead there is even more work than ever before. it's just different work.
I suspect it will play out quite differently than we imagine.

BTW, I'm much better at predicting the past than the future. Hence not a billionaire. unless you count cents in which case I'm still laughably far away :)

[alokdhir]

My posts on your dishonesty are warnings to the people on this site. This is an investment/trading discussion website. Dishonesty has no place on it.


Agree with u also with what u saying ...he has no credibility with me ....

[Daytr]

Agree with u also with what u saying ...he has no credibility with me ....

Care value zero.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Right?

[winner69]

Seems everybody is fighting the Fed

[percy]

More on David McEwan:
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/lbzmyBYNxBmKTRndhdy0aA/Whdx78xtrj28NVEk892lQ892iQ

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HSOXjxuXfA

[bull....]

Mike wilson , i believe he was voted no 1 US strategist by his peers again on his update for 2024


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDx5d8iDDDo

[bull....]

tom lee has a different take


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAEWkNWAmC4

[bull....]

China's consumer prices fall fastest in 3 years, factory-gate deflation deepens
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-consumer-prices-fall-fastest-3-years-factory-gate-deflation-deepens-2023-12-09/

of course they will export deflation to the world as time roll's on.

[bull....]

A crunch week for central banks will put rate-cut expectations to the test
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/11/rate-cuts-ahead-fed-ecb-and-other-central-banks-set-for-pivotal-week.html

fed speak this week might set the tone for the new year

[winner69]

Annual net PLT immigration hit a record high in October, with the risk of a higher for longer net immigration boost that will have implications for the economic and interest rate outlook

[Valuegrowth]

Annual net PLT immigration hit a record high in October, with the risk of a higher for longer net immigration boost that will have implications for the economic and interest rate outlook Demand for good and services will go up. Won't be able to control inflation.

[bull....]

Inflation slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in November
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html

[Daytr]

US markets are looking pretty toppy imo.
Basically back to all time highs for the DOW.
Do earnings back these valuations?

[Valuegrowth]

US markets are looking pretty toppy imo.
Basically back to all time highs for the DOW.
Do earnings back these valuations?Simply, growth stocks are way too expensive.

[SailorRob]

US markets are looking pretty toppy imo.
Basically back to all time highs for the DOW.
Do earnings back these valuations?

Depends on what your discount rate is, what your alternatives are and how much those earnings will grow.

If you're happy with mid to maybe high single digits over next 10 years will a possibility of a goose egg as well...

[Bobdn]

USG.NZX hit an all time high today.

Not a lot of Old People's Homes and Power Boards in that ETF, I can tell you.

[bull....]

Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.html

rate cuts next yr :t_up: presser coming up

[Joshuatree]

👍👍Woohoo,Thanks Santa Bull,(I can hear sleigh bells)so the mkts are going to have a happy ending this year barring a black turkey.

[Bobdn]

Which markets?

[bull....]

Which markets?

small cap my pick.... they have been crushed by high rates. anyway markets cheering

[Bobdn]

Yes indeed just checking that. I own VB (through Smartshares USS) its been a nasty hold but is ripping today.

And when I say nasty, only up 13 per cent ytd compared to USF's 23 per cent.

[winner69]

The Dow could hit 100,000 before 2030

[alokdhir]

The Dow could hit 100,000 before 2030

How the Pundits change tune with changing times ...lol. Heard many saying it can touch 10000 with rates over 6.5% etc ....

Real Guru guides his flock towards better times and pastures by foreseeing predictable and actionable info much ahead of the market !!

U r a true genius :t_up:

[RTM]

The Dow could hit 100,000 before 2030

Will this support Reb or Dem's ? Trump or JB ?

[bull....]

massive drop in NZ 10yr this morning 4.75 .

[whatsup]

Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.html

rate cuts next yr :t_up: presser coming up

Yeh, DOW off and running to all time high, burst through 37,000, I well remember when it burst through 1,000 circa 1973ish !!!!.

[whatsup]

The Dow could hit 100,000 before 2030

TRY 10,000 first, 100,000 not a chance !!!

[Baa_Baa]

Yeh, DOW off and running to all time high, burst through 3,000, I well remember when it burst through 1,000 circa 1973ish !!!!.

Which DOW are you looking at, it's 37,039 right now?

[whatsup]

Which DOW are you looking at, it's 37,039 right now?

37,000 TOO EXCITED to type enough !!

[Daytr]

37,000 TOO EXCITED to type enough !!

PE ratio very high. Chart indicates massively overbought. Looks a bit like gold 10 days ago.

[causecelebre]

PE ratio very high. Chart indicates massively overbought. Looks a bit like gold 10 days ago.

I been hearing that all year yet the market is ripping. Best not to be out of position I would have thought. I imagine many a fund manager will have been on the chase, particularly during Nov

[bull....]

take out the mag 7 and pe about normal

[Baa_Baa]

PE ratio very high. Chart indicates massively overbought. Looks a bit like gold 10 days ago.

Chart is not "massively overbought", it's just nudging on 68.5 RSI, technically just below overbought. Once the euphoria settles from this ATH breakout, we'd expect it to back test the ATH which is now support.

[bull....]

Shock as Gross Domestic Product (GDP falls) 0.3 per cent
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/did-the-economy-shrink-or-grow-new-gdp-numbers-today/VIPKVULJP5DGDJSEY5NDXQ3HMI/

as been saying for quite some time stagflation in nz :scared:

[Daytr]

Chart is not "massively overbought", it's just nudging on 68.5 RSI, technically just below overbought. Once the euphoria settles from this ATH breakout, we'd expect it to back test the ATH which is now support.

Interesting.
What period of time is your metric over?

[Daytr]

take out the mag 7 and pe about normal

Only 2 of the Mag 7 are in the DOW, Apple & Microsoft

[bull....]

Only 2 of the Mag 7 are in the DOW, Apple & Microsoft

sorry mean the broader market. which is what most people should look at.

[Daytr]

Shock as Gross Domestic Product (GDP falls) 0.3 per cent
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/did-the-economy-shrink-or-grow-new-gdp-numbers-today/VIPKVULJP5DGDJSEY5NDXQ3HMI/

as been saying for quite some time stagflation in nz :scared:

Not unexpected at least by this punter but quite an ugly number when you consider what inflation is running at.

[bull....]

Not unexpected at least by this punter but quite an ugly number when you consider what inflation is running at.

very ugly if you remove immigration

[causecelebre]

very ugly if you remove immigration

+1 Ha was just about post the same. I’ve been banging on a while about importing GDP using immigration

[Muse]

Not unexpected at least by this punter but quite an ugly number when you consider what inflation is running at.

those gdp figures are real not nominal - ie they are inflation adjusted


very ugly if you remove immigration

real GDP per capita for the september quarter (3 months) down 0.9% from june - annualised rate -3.7%. Down 4% on the same quarter last year. Source, tab 21 of the releases excel file.

Rolling 12 month real gdp per capita doesn't to september doesnt look as bad - down 0.9% - vs the same period last year (tab 22). still awful.

[bull....]

those gdp figures are real not nominal - ie they are inflation adjusted



real GDP per capita for the september quarter (3 months) down 0.9% from june - annualised rate -3.7%. Down 4% on the same quarter last year. Source, tab 21 of the releases excel file.

Rolling 12 month real gdp per capita doesn't to september doesnt look as bad - down 0.9% - vs the same period last year (tab 22). still awful.

So the question is Muse do you believe Orr will not decrease rates till 25. as per his last statement and taking into account tightening is still working its way thru the economy and could quite possibly lead to negative prints in GDP early next yr as well.

[Muse]

So the question is Muse do you believe Orr will not decrease rates till 25. as per his last statement and taking into account tightening is still working its way thru the economy and could quite possibly lead to negative prints in GDP early next yr as well.

I’ve no clue…besides with things like this have to be careful not to confuse what ought to happen with what Orr will make happen

Stagflation the issue du jour, w core inflation still sticky. I’m hopeful that’ll come under control at some point.

What i feel ought to happen is no more hikes and cuts earlier than what the rbnz has suggested. What Orr will actually do I’d be loathe to speculate.

[causecelebre]

Makes for sober reading given the revisions by Stats NZ to the GDP figures for the last four quarters

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125699/reserve-bank-finds-itself-stuck-middle-still-high-inflation-and-economy-buckling

[bull....]

I’ve no clue…besides with things like this have to be careful not to confuse what ought to happen with what Orr will make happen

Stagflation the issue du jour, w core inflation still sticky. I’m hopeful that’ll come under control at some point.

What i feel ought to happen is no more hikes and cuts earlier than what the rbnz has suggested. What Orr will actually do I’d be loathe to speculate.

feel like Orr going to have to suck it up bigtime at his first meeting in the new year and bring rate cuts well forward and the govt have to do some pretty big infrastructure spending to get nz out of a stagflation environment. bring in the kiwisaver funds

[Daytr]

feel like Orr going to have to suck it up bigtime at his first meeting in the new year and bring rate cuts well forward and the govt have to do some pretty big infrastructure spending to get nz out of a stagflation environment. bring in the kiwisaver funds

Yeah I think the same.
Probably the main reason NZ inflation has been stickier than most is due to the Government based wage increases and that will start to phase out.
Not sure about the Government spending though, net it might decrease.

[SailorRob]

Not unexpected at least by this punter but quite an ugly number when you consider what inflation is running at.

GDP figures are not nominal, surely to God you know that?

[Baa_Baa]

GDP figures are not nominal, surely to God you know that?

Someone not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but has an off the cuff opinion on everything.

Patience SR, this could go on for a long time, and ultimately achieve nothing

[SailorRob]

Someone not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but has an off the cuff opinion on everything.

Patience SR, this could go on for a long time, and ultimately achieve nothing

Wise words.

[bull....]

Yeah I think the same.
Probably the main reason NZ inflation has been stickier than most is due to the Government based wage increases and that will start to phase out.
Not sure about the Government spending though, net it might decrease.

yea when they start cutting public sector jobs in the new year that add to the gloom and neg gdp prints in first half as well as the roll of huge chunk of fixed rate mtges again.

[bull....]

US 10 yr crashing again , wall st steady but small caps outperforming 6% up 2 days plenty catch up to go i reckon. same with small caps asx savaged this yr but coming back now. some do better than others of course.

[Muse]

US 10 yr crashing again , wall st steady but small caps outperforming 6% up 2 days plenty catch up to go i reckon. same with small caps asx savaged this yr but coming back now. some do better than others of course.

Nice to see you living up to your nom de plume these days

[Daytr]

GDP figures are not nominal, surely to God you know that?


Someone not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but has an off the cuff opinion on everything.

Patience SR, this could go on for a long time, and ultimately achieve nothing


Wise words.

Typical, the big picture goes straight over your head due to being stuck with your blinkered prejudice of me.

The point is the number should have been strongly positive considering immigration is running at record levels.

Hey but the economy is on fire! 🤣🤣🤣

[SailorRob]

quite an ugly number when you consider what inflation is running at.


'I really meant quite an ugly number considering what immigration is running at'

Yeah right

[Daytr]

'I really meant quite an ugly number considering what immigration is running at'

Yeah right

Who cares!

You use quote marks & then use your own phrase. The irony from the grammar nazi.
Correcting yourself must do your head in.
A bit like a dog chasing its tail. 😅

Keep concentrating on the big things like grammar or calling it right on the economy.
That latter part of your game clearly needs work.

[SailorRob]

Who cares!

You use quote marks & then use your own phrase. The irony from the grammar nazi.
Correcting yourself must do your head in.
A bit like a dog chasing its tail. 

Keep concentrating on the big things like grammar or calling it right on the economy.
That latter part of your game clearly needs work.


I care as you have stated you are a 20 year investment banking veteran yet you don't know that GDP figures are not nominal.

The latter part isn't part of my 'game' at all. I have zero interest in trying to forecast 'the economy' as nobody in recorded history has a statistically significant record of any predictive ability at all - even the Soros and Druckenmillers.

However, hundreds of thousands of people have been able to establish a record of market outperformance by being business analysts and buying things below their intrinsic values.

Currently I have an opportunity to invest at 12% returns with the entire 12% being reinvested at 10% and only paying tax on 5. Far safer than any term deposit and inflation protected. This is my focus.

[Daytr]

I care as you have stated you are a 20 year investment banking veteran yet you don't know that GDP figures are not nominal.

The latter part isn't part of my 'game' at all. I have zero interest in trying to forecast 'the economy' as nobody in recorded history has a statistically significant record of any predictive ability at all - even the Soros and Druckenmillers.

However, hundreds of thousands of people have been able to establish a record of market outperformance by being business analysts and buying things below their intrinsic values.

Currently I have an opportunity to invest at 12% returns with the entire 12% being reinvested at 10% and only paying tax on 5. Far safer than any term deposit and inflation protected. This is my focus.

Bravo, good for you.
And again who, besides you cares.
Your repetitive self admiration is tedious at best.
And again you keep repeating a bad assumption. GDP figures can be inflation adjusted and not in fact both are quite often published.

The concern should be if you actually really cared or if your point is pertinent which it's not, is if I didn't understand the difference between the two.
But you can't help yourself concentrating on the minutia rather than the big picture.

It's funny, when I was in my roll back in the day I used to advise CEOs & CFOs of very large (& also small corporates), publish daily commentary on macro events & outlook & forecast price direction of various commodities and I was taken far more seriously & had a reasonable following than a bunch of amateurs on here.

It reminds me of the pandemic when everyone suddenly became scientists or virologists or they new better than world renowned experts. (I'm not claiming to be one of those).

Anyway it's water of ducks back to me.
People can choose to read or ignore what I say, I don't care.
But keep trolling me, it's clear you are fixated & deaf to anything I would say no matter what it was. Unless of course I was agreeing with you...🙄

[SailorRob]

Bravo, good for you.
And again who, besides you cares.
Your repetitive self admiration is tedious at best.
And again you keep repeating a bad assumption. GDP figures can be inflation adjusted and not in fact both are quite often published.

The concern should be if you actually really cared or if your point is pertinent which it's not, is if I didn't understand the difference between the two.
But you can't help yourself concentrating on the minutia rather than the big picture.

It's funny, when I was in my roll back in the day I used to advise CEOs & CFOs of very large (& also small corporates), publish daily commentary on macro events & outlook & forecast price direction of various commodities and I was taken far more seriously & had a reasonable following than a bunch of amateurs on here.

It reminds me of the pandemic when everyone suddenly became scientists or virologists or they new better than world renowned experts. (I'm not claiming to be one of those).

Anyway it's water of ducks back to me.
People can choose to read or ignore what I say, I don't care.
But keep trolling me, it's clear you are fixated & deaf to anything I would say no matter what it was. Unless of course I was agreeing with you...🙄

Post ONE link to a NZ gdp print that is nominal and published/reported.

Just one bro.

Even if you can, should you not realise the difference?

[Daytr]

Post ONE link to a NZ gdp print that is nominal and published/reported.

Just one bro.

Even if you can, should you not realise the difference?

Yawn.
Of course I understand the difference, can't you read before you respond to a post.

Took me 2 minutes to find an example.
Moodys no less.
https://www.economy.com/new-zealand/real-gross-domestic-product

Just another stupid question, yet answered again.

[SailorRob]

Yawn.
Of course I understand the difference, can't you read before you respond to a post.

Took me 2 minutes to find an example.
Moodys no less.
https://www.economy.com/new-zealand/real-gross-domestic-product

Just another stupid question, yet answered again.

No an actual release or report, not data that's recalculated by a third party.

So something that's published to inform people about the latest GDP. Find me one nominal.

[Daytr]

Yawn again.
You seem to think you can snap your fingers & people will jump.
Well I have news for you.

I have given you what you asked for & believe it or not Moodys releases / reports are followed far more in the financial world than some News Hub report etc.

Get a life. You obviously don't value yours as you spend far too much of your time on here asking inane questions.
Me I'm off for a relaxing beer in the sun.

[winner69]

Wikipedia says - The economy of New Zealand is a highly developed free-market economy.It is the 52nd-largest national economy in the world when measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP)

Probably a bit difficult to make country comparisons using real GDP ….. but then they prob use some PPP methodology

[SailorRob]

Wikipedia says - The economy of New Zealand is a highly developed free-market economy.It is the 52nd-largest national economy in the world when measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP)

Probably a bit difficult to make country comparisons using real GDP ….. but then they prob use some PPP methodology

Yes but effectively that is 'real' as it's measured in USD. So Venezuela or zimmy would have the fastest economies in the world if nominal in their own currency.

[winner69]

Yes but effectively that is 'real' as it's measured in USD. So Venezuela or zimmy would have the fastest economies in the world if nominal in their own currency.

Might be ‘real’ in that context but not inflation adjusted which seems to be subject of your chatter with daytr

[Daytr]

If I'm perfectly honest, I wasn't really thinking when I mentioned inflation.
But to use that to suggest I don't understand the difference or how they are typically published. Really?

It doesn't change the fact that the result was a shocker & even more so when the revisions of previous data is taken in to account.

Big picture the economy isn't on fire & hasn't been for some time. Hey but that's what's important right, not the minutia you bury yourself in.

Do you have all your towels in a row hanging the exact same length, your cans I the pantry all facing the same way in rows?

[SailorRob]

If I'm perfectly honest, I wasn't really thinking when I mentioned inflation.


I know.

But there is the danger, you assumed it was actually negative 6% real which is like great depression stuff.

My point is that someone at the level you suggest you are should just naturally know this stuff.

[Daytr]

I know.

But there is the danger, you assumed it was actually negative 6% real which is like great depression stuff.

My point is that someone at the level you suggest you are should just naturally know this stuff.

Really 6%?
Where the hell do you get that from?
Did inflation rise 5.7% quarter to quarter?
For someone who is banging on about understanding you just displayed a serious lack of it.

[SailorRob]

Really 6%?
Where the hell do you get that from?
Did inflation rise 5.7% quarter to quarter?
For someone who is banging on about understanding you just displayed a serious lack of it.

Annualised obviously, but you raise a good point.

Haircut is $50, a pie over $6 etc many things are inflating at vastly higher rates than government figures.

[bull....]

Bravo, good for you.
And again who, besides you cares.
Your repetitive self admiration is tedious at best.
And again you keep repeating a bad assumption. GDP figures can be inflation adjusted and not in fact both are quite often published.

The concern should be if you actually really cared or if your point is pertinent which it's not, is if I didn't understand the difference between the two.
But you can't help yourself concentrating on the minutia rather than the big picture.

It's funny, when I was in my roll back in the day I used to advise CEOs & CFOs of very large (& also small corporates), publish daily commentary on macro events & outlook & forecast price direction of various commodities and I was taken far more seriously & had a reasonable following than a bunch of amateurs on here.

It reminds me of the pandemic when everyone suddenly became scientists or virologists or they new better than world renowned experts. (I'm not claiming to be one of those).

Anyway it's water of ducks back to me.
People can choose to read or ignore what I say, I don't care.
But keep trolling me, it's clear you are fixated & deaf to anything I would say no matter what it was. Unless of course I was agreeing with you...

you were not full time trader for bank , only part time if that. just like azz inferred otherwise you would not advise people you just trade if your big bank trader. thats all you doo

[Daytr]

you were not full time trader for bank , only part time if that. just like azz inferred otherwise you would not advise people you just trade if your big bank trader. thats all you doo

Bull, if you look back through my posts my role was all encompassing. I have never stated that all I did was prop trading. That was part of the role but as a commodity specialist it's seldom all you do is trading, energy aside.
In the latter years I ran the entire business whilst being chief revenue getter either by hedging client transactions or prop trading, besides responsible for credit, staff and various other responsibilities. Different banks I worked for the role did vary as is the nature of banking.

Using Azz is a reference is beneath you.

[bull....]

Bull, if you look back through my posts my role was all encompassing. I have never stated that all I did was prop trading. That was part of the role but as a commodity specialist it's seldom all you do is trading, energy aside.
In the latter years I ran the entire business whilst being chief revenue getter either by hedging client transactions or prop trading, besides responsible for credit, staff and various other responsibilities. Different banks I worked for the role did vary as is the nature of banking.

Using Azz is a reference is beneath you.

ok just clarifying. i get what you did

[SailorRob]

In the latter years I ran the entire business


What entire business?

[SailorRob]

Your repetitive self admiration is tedious at best.

It's funny, when I was in my roll back in the day I used to advise CEOs & CFOs of very large (& also small corporates), publish daily commentary on macro events & outlook & forecast price direction of various commodities and I was taken far more seriously & had a reasonable following than a bunch of amateurs on here.



Posted without comment.

[Daytr]

Posted without comment.

Being factual is not self admiration. I was asked a question, I answered it.
If you think that is flattering that's on you.


What entire business?

Metals trading business.

[thedrunkfish]

This thread used to be a great source of insightful posts, unfortunately lately that seems to have changed.

How about you guys conduct the phallus measuring competition somehwere else?

[SailorRob]

This thread used to be a great source of insightful posts, unfortunately lately that seems to have changed.

How about you guys conduct the phallus measuring competition somehwere else?


Can you repost your top 5 insightful posts that you have made.

Cheers.

[SailorRob]

The key here to me is "households who unfortunately are significantly leveraged at this point in their life cycle". Have they not been one of the biggest drivers of the problem? This implies to me that those who are highly leveraged are being unfairly burdened with the cost.


This is the last one that I can find, and it is actually good insight and I very much agree.

But this was a long time ago, what are your latest insights?

[Daytr]

Posted without comment.


What entire business?


This thread used to be a great source of insightful posts, unfortunately lately that seems to have changed.

How about you guys conduct the phallus measuring competition somehwere else?

Delighted to respect & oblige your wishes.
This merry-go-round that just rinses & repeats adds no value whatsoever.

No matter how many times I try & turn the conversation it reverts & yes I recognize my own part in this.

The Sailorboy & his Minime will be ignored from now on for the sake of everyone's sanity.

[Valuegrowth]

History is repeating in markets. 100% investment is not a good investment strategy. I am trying to keep at least 20% in cash . I think we are due for another one.


https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-black-monday-in-1987-1929-and-2015-3305818 (https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-black-monday-in-1987-1929-and-2015-3305818)

Black Monday in 1929, 1987, 2015, and 2020

Key Takeaway


The first Black Monday was October 28, 1929; it was the first Monday after Black Thursday, which kicked off the stock market crash of 1929
The sell-off did not start the Great Depression of 1929, but it set the stage by shattering confidence in business investing.
Black Monday is used most often to refer to the second-largest one-day percentage drop in stock market history, which occurred on October 19, 1987.
The most recent Black Monday, on March 9, 2020, came a few days before the Dow entered a bear market, ending an 11-year bull market.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/100-stock-portfolio/

Benjamin Graham (https://amzn.to/2HcuAGl), who Warren Buffett considers his mentor, said that you should never hold more than 75% of your portfolio in stocks and no more than 75% of your portfolio in bonds. Graham was born in 1894 and died in 1976, so his investment career really started during World War I, extended through the Great Depression and World War II, endured through the cold war, and ended during the stagflation of the 1970s. Stock yields were over 5% for most of his career (actually higher than bond yields) and that was felt to be normal since stocks were so much riskier than bonds. Taylor Larimore (https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/bogleheads-three-fund-portfolio/) is a big fan of holding bonds and recommends you hold up to your age in bonds. He's 94 years old. You might consider what he knows that you don't.

[bull....]

nice to see bull not alone in recognizing and commenting about the stagflationary NZ economy. you don't hear it mentioned at all in NZ media ( must be censored lol )

New Zealand’s recession is a warning for the rest of world
The latest data from across the ditch suggests that NZ is the first advanced economy to enter into a bona fide “stagflationary recession”.

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/new-zealand-s-recession-is-a-warning-for-the-rest-of-world-20231212-p5er1f

[alokdhir]

nice to see bull not alone in recognizing and commenting about the stagflationary NZ economy. you don't hear it mentioned at all in NZ media ( must be censored lol )

New Zealand’s recession is a warning for the rest of world


The latest data from across the ditch suggests that NZ is the first advanced economy to enter into a bona fide “stagflationary recession”.

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/new-zealand-s-recession-is-a-warning-for-the-rest-of-world-20231212-p5er1f

Sensationalism in news is very common in our part of the world ...Inflation is fast receding ...its just not yet recognised ...growth is dropping thus rates will fall sooner then all think is the main news and news of value here mate

[SailorRob]

nice to see bull not alone in recognizing and commenting about the stagflationary NZ economy. you don't hear it mentioned at all in NZ media ( must be censored lol )

New Zealand’s recession is a warning for the rest of world
The latest data from across the ditch suggests that NZ is the first advanced economy to enter into a bona fide “stagflationary recession”.

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/new-zealand-s-recession-is-a-warning-for-the-rest-of-world-20231212-p5er1f

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/122626/bnz-economists-say-solid-bounce-economic-activity-expected-second-half-next-year

Quick search brings up many NZ media articles about stagflation.

Your information and reaserch process is one step ahead of the herd yet again.

[bull....]

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/122626/bnz-economists-say-solid-bounce-economic-activity-expected-second-half-next-year

Quick search brings up many NZ media articles about stagflation.

Your information and reaserch process is one step ahead of the herd yet again.

you are correct. interest.co.nz does offer independant journalism :t_up: i should have said mainstream media in NZ which is not independant journalism in my opinion

[SailorRob]

you are correct. interest.co.nz does offer independant journalism :t_up: i should have said mainstream media in NZ which is not independant journalism in my opinion

Plenty of commentary in mainstream media about stagflation in NZ.

[bull....]

Plenty of commentary in mainstream media about stagflation in NZ.

whats the implications of stagflation in NZ on your NZ portfolio ?

[winner69]

Plenty of commentary in mainstream media about stagflation in NZ.


Posted without comment

[SailorRob]

whats the implications of stagflation in NZ on your NZ portfolio ?

I don't have one.

[bull....]

I don't have one.

you own OCA ? dont you and a house ?

[SailorRob]

you own OCA ? dont you and a house ?

Own a house?? Are you calling me a moron?

Of bloody course I don't own a house, Christ.

Only OCA so can't really call that a portfolio.

[mike2020]

Own a house?? Are you calling me a moron?

Of bloody course I don't own a house, Christ.

Only OCA so can't really call that a portfolio.

This place really needs a like button. Putting the money where the mouth is. 😁

[SailorRob]

This place really needs a like button. Putting the money where the mouth is. 😁

Yep if your money isn't where your mouth is you best shut the cake hole!

Mouth shouldn't write cheques your arse can't cash.

[SailorRob]

Anyone who claims to be a serious investor, all these fund managers and so called professionals...

You can write them off straight away if they own a house, unless they're worth MANY millions, why would they take capital out of compounding at high rates to have sitting rotting.

Even if you have 5 million can you really afford to have 20% of assets idle plus associated costs.

No.

[bull....]

Own a house?? Are you calling me a moron?

Of bloody course I don't own a house, Christ.

Only OCA so can't really call that a portfolio.

its the old argument of owning vrs renting argument. hope your landlord nice , do they allow pets ?

[winner69]

its the old argument of owning vrs renting argument. hope your landlord nice , do they allow pets ?

Lives on the boat(s) …you should have cottoned on to that by now

[bull....]

Lives on the boat(s) …you should have cottoned on to that by now

oh :scared: hardly the lifestyle of the rich and famous

[mike2020]

oh :scared: hardly the lifestyle of the rich and famous

Id have thought exactly the lifestyle of the rich and blameless.