Black Monday

[bull....]

both coles and woolworths said in there profit announcements that crime in supermarkets is out of control in both nz and aus ...... guess what they say they are investing in more security. face recognition , smart trolleys , smart camera's all probably powered with nvidia jetson nano

[Valuegrowth]

The recession is getting postponed thanks to the resilience of the job market.Market sell-off may come when we are least expected.
Nvidia might save the S&P lol. Maybe Black Monday has been put off for a while!

[clip]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/government-expected-to-borrow-35pc-more-than-planned-eight-months-ago/VNDWOLXR6VD7DPFHJW7A3LATPQ/

Wow, this is disappointing. NZ's economy is in a terrible state.

Despite NVIDIA, I'm pretty sure the Black Monday thread will see plenty of action in the future.

And yet it's a paywalled article and hidden in the business section, lol. why is this not front page news

[Azz]

The recession is getting postponed thanks to the resilience of the job market.Market sell-off may come when we are least expected.

Good point, but: I'm seeing some cracks in the job market. Nothing major, though.

[bull....]

cost of living crisis just warming up . costa say today material softness in consumer demand for tomato's :scared: will effect there results . people giving up tomato's for what ?

[Azz]

Can anyone confirm the headline vs the article? I don't have the Herald.

"Debt blowout: Government expected to borrow $35 billion more than planned eight months ago"

[bull....]

Can anyone confirm the headline vs the article? I don't have the Herald.

"Debt blowout: Government expected to borrow $35 billion more than planned eight months ago"

westpac are saying due to economy going downhill govt will need to raise an extra 35b going forward compared to previous forecasts

[Bobdn]

https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2023/08/35_billion_more_debt.html

There's more information here.

[Azz]

https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2023/08/35_billion_more_debt.html

There's more information here.

Thanks. And oh my God lol............

[Azz]

westpac are saying due to economy going downhill govt will need to raise an extra 35b going forward compared to previous forecasts

This isn't big news lol?

[Azz]

https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2023/08/35_billion_more_debt.html

There's more information here.

"This would add to a string of previous upward revisions, which would see Treasury issue $35b (or 35 per cent) more debt over the four-year period than expected in December."

[Azz]

And yet it's a paywalled article and hidden in the business section, lol. why is this not front page news

I reckon!!!

[bull....]

I reckon!!!

typical click bait from herald obviously not front page course they didnt get enough clicks

[bull....]

24/08/2024

"NZ50 Index Witnesses Sharp Decline as Investors Liquidate Holdings to Fuel NVIDIA Purchase Frenzy"

In a surprising turn of events, the NZ50 Index experienced a significant plunge today as investors rushed to offload their positions to secure funds for a fervent buying spree of NVIDIA shares. The index, which tracks the performance of the top 50 companies listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX), plummeted by 1% as market participants realigned their portfolios to capitalize on the NVIDIA craze.
The sell-off was largely attributed to a mounting wave of enthusiasm surrounding NVIDIA, a global technology giant renowned for its graphics processing units and artificial intelligence innovations. Investors across New Zealand scrambled to raise capital in a bid to enter the NVIDIA market, sparked by positive news such as breakthrough advancements in AI research, record-setting quarterly earnings, and the unveiling of revolutionary product lines.
Financial experts were taken aback by the sheer magnitude of the NZ50 Index decline, which was fueled by the rapid succession of sell orders from both institutional and retail investors. Trading floors buzzed with activity as market makers struggled to maintain equilibrium amidst the rush of sell-side orders. This unprecedented mass exodus from diverse sectors within the index exerted immense downward pressure, leading to one of the most dramatic intraday drops in recent memory.
The frenzied nature of the sell-off prompted concerns among regulators and industry insiders alike. Some raised questions about the sustainability of such a rally in NVIDIA's stock and whether investors were taking undue risks by liquidating well-performing assets in favor of a single, albeit robust, technology company. As market participants eagerly awaited updates on the situation, analysts emphasized the importance of diversified investment strategies to mitigate potential risks associated with such concentrated market movements.
The aftermath of this sudden market shakeup is expected to stimulate discussions on the impact of "herd mentality" within investment circles and the potential consequences of chasing trends without prudent risk management. While the allure of remarkable gains from NVIDIA's soaring stock price is undeniable, experts urge investors to exercise caution and consider the broader market landscape.
As the financial world watches with bated breath, the NZ50 Index's fall serves as a vivid reminder of the unpredictable nature of markets and the fascinating interplay between investor sentiment and asset valuations. Only time will tell whether this calculated gamble on NVIDIA will pay off handsomely for those who seized the opportunity or if it will stand as a cautionary tale of the perils of abandoning a diversified investment approach.

[Rawz]

greed.. fearful?

[Bobdn]

Thanks Bull. I'm amazed that the Nzx50 would be affected like this. I don't think I've ever purchased a share or fund in the middle of an "event" like this.

[dabsman]

24/08/2024

"NZ50 Index Witnesses Sharp Decline as Investors Liquidate Holdings to Fuel NVIDIA Purchase Frenzy"

In a surprising turn of events, the NZ50 Index experienced a significant plunge today as investors rushed to offload their positions to secure funds for a fervent buying spree of NVIDIA shares. The index, which tracks the performance of the top 50 companies listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX), plummeted by 1% as market participants realigned their portfolios to capitalize on the NVIDIA craze.
The sell-off was largely attributed to a mounting wave of enthusiasm surrounding NVIDIA, a global technology giant renowned for its graphics processing units and artificial intelligence innovations. Investors across New Zealand scrambled to raise capital in a bid to enter the NVIDIA market, sparked by positive news such as breakthrough advancements in AI research, record-setting quarterly earnings, and the unveiling of revolutionary product lines.
Financial experts were taken aback by the sheer magnitude of the NZ50 Index decline, which was fueled by the rapid succession of sell orders from both institutional and retail investors. Trading floors buzzed with activity as market makers struggled to maintain equilibrium amidst the rush of sell-side orders. This unprecedented mass exodus from diverse sectors within the index exerted immense downward pressure, leading to one of the most dramatic intraday drops in recent memory.
The frenzied nature of the sell-off prompted concerns among regulators and industry insiders alike. Some raised questions about the sustainability of such a rally in NVIDIA's stock and whether investors were taking undue risks by liquidating well-performing assets in favor of a single, albeit robust, technology company. As market participants eagerly awaited updates on the situation, analysts emphasized the importance of diversified investment strategies to mitigate potential risks associated with such concentrated market movements.
The aftermath of this sudden market shakeup is expected to stimulate discussions on the impact of "herd mentality" within investment circles and the potential consequences of chasing trends without prudent risk management. While the allure of remarkable gains from NVIDIA's soaring stock price is undeniable, experts urge investors to exercise caution and consider the broader market landscape.
As the financial world watches with bated breath, the NZ50 Index's fall serves as a vivid reminder of the unpredictable nature of markets and the fascinating interplay between investor sentiment and asset valuations. Only time will tell whether this calculated gamble on NVIDIA will pay off handsomely for those who seized the opportunity or if it will stand as a cautionary tale of the perils of abandoning a diversified investment approach.

Looks like ChatGPT to me...

[Azz]

Into the third quarter, Nvidia is pulling in US$2,000 a second. Hardly a "craze" for the stock. :-)

[Jaa]

Amazing.

I am seeing AI enthusiasm at the user level die down a bit. Well written and reasonable sounding nonsense only gets you so far.

That and content owners starting to organise and protest louder.

Higher costs and reduced demand could crash the hysteria.

[Azz]

Amazing.

I am seeing AI enthusiasm at the user level die down a bit. Well written and reasonable sounding nonsense only gets you so far.

That and content owners starting to organise and protest louder.

Higher costs and reduced demand could crash the hysteria.

A.I. is so much more than just ChatGPT!

[Azz]

It's an incredible story, and incredible leadership from Jensen Huang. The move to number one in A.I. is one of the greatest business completed-strategies of all time.

For leadership, for foresight, for execution, Jensen Huang is up there first equal with the GOAT, Steve Jobs.

[SailorRob]

if they didnt own apple they would be roughly 100 billion + worse off and that is money which you want. why so they can invest it in there businesses side you so much like


Interesting. I din't know they had sold Apple and were using the proceeds to invest in there (their) businesses side.

If they haven't sold Apple then it's not money... It's a bunch of shares.

[moka]

What's happening - and a lot of people can't see it - is corporate functions are being switched from being done by people to being done by A.I. "plug-ins" at a datacenter. And the amount of money involved is astronomical. Nvidia at $500 is a cheap stock right now.Here is what Perplexity AI thinks of Nividia. Perplexity AI is a search engine which unlike ChatGPT gives you the references. https://www.perplexity.ai/ Cathie Wood thinks it is too expensive.

How much would Nividia need to earn to justify current share price?
Answer
To justify the current share price of Nvidia, the company's sales growth must be at least 50% compounding and the adjusted operating margin must be at least 42.5% in perpetuity 1.
However, there are differing opinions on whether Nvidia's valuation can be justified.
Some investors believe that Nvidia's current market price appears expensive compared to its intrinsic value, making it a potential sell 1.

The greatest source of uncertainty in Nvidia's valuation is the expected revenue growth, with a growth rate of 28% ± 5% accounting for 75% of the spread in the valuation 1.
To justify the current share price, sales revenue must almost be double the estimate, which would mean Nvidia's sales revenue in 10 years' time would be approximately $644 billion 1.
On the other hand, Nvidia's stock currently trades for 204 times the company's earnings per share, which is lower than Amazon's multiple of 296 3.

However, some investors are skeptical about whether Nvidia's revenue and profits justify its valuation 6.
Analysts believe that Nvidia's revenue will be $113 billion in 2030, resulting in a PE multiple of over 10x, which is considered high 6.
In summary, to justify the current share price of Nvidia, the company would need to achieve significant sales growth and maintain a high operating margin. However, there are differing opinions on whether Nvidia's valuation can be justified based on its expected revenue growth and earnings multiples.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4613362-nvidia-has-price-gotten-ahead-of-fundamentals-again 1
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/18/what-should-investors-do-with-nvidias-stock-before/ 2
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/09/nvidia-is-worth-nearly-1-trillion-dollars-what-to-know-before-investing.html 3
https://fortune.com/2023/05/25/nvidia-ai-earnings-drivers-stock-price-market-cap-outlook/ 4
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/can-nvidia-s-valuation-be-justified-some-investors-are-not-so-sure-20230609-p5df9b 5
https://www.investorsobserver.com/news/qm-news/5836390363537278 6

[Azz]

It's amazing how quickly NZ has deteriorated in the last 5 or so years. Feels like a different country.

We may never recover.

It's so bad right now. There's a terrible feeling of malaise, of resignation. And the total SILENCE by the population on covid is spooky.

[Azz]

Here is what Perplexity AI thinks of Nividia. Perplexity AI is a search engine which unlike ChatGPT gives you the references. https://www.perplexity.ai/ Cathie Wood thinks it is too expensive.

How much would Nividia need to earn to justify current share price?
Answer
To justify the current share price of Nvidia, the company's sales growth must be at least 50% compounding and the adjusted operating margin must be at least 42.5% in perpetuity 1.
However, there are differing opinions on whether Nvidia's valuation can be justified.
Some investors believe that Nvidia's current market price appears expensive compared to its intrinsic value, making it a potential sell 1.

The greatest source of uncertainty in Nvidia's valuation is the expected revenue growth, with a growth rate of 28% ± 5% accounting for 75% of the spread in the valuation 1.
To justify the current share price, sales revenue must almost be double the estimate, which would mean Nvidia's sales revenue in 10 years' time would be approximately $644 billion 1.
On the other hand, Nvidia's stock currently trades for 204 times the company's earnings per share, which is lower than Amazon's multiple of 296 3.

However, some investors are skeptical about whether Nvidia's revenue and profits justify its valuation 6.
Analysts believe that Nvidia's revenue will be $113 billion in 2030, resulting in a PE multiple of over 10x, which is considered high 6.
In summary, to justify the current share price of Nvidia, the company would need to achieve significant sales growth and maintain a high operating margin. However, there are differing opinions on whether Nvidia's valuation can be justified based on its expected revenue growth and earnings multiples.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4613362-nvidia-has-price-gotten-ahead-of-fundamentals-again 1
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/18/what-should-investors-do-with-nvidias-stock-before/ 2
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/09/nvidia-is-worth-nearly-1-trillion-dollars-what-to-know-before-investing.html 3
https://fortune.com/2023/05/25/nvidia-ai-earnings-drivers-stock-price-market-cap-outlook/ 4
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/can-nvidia-s-valuation-be-justified-some-investors-are-not-so-sure-20230609-p5df9b 5
https://www.investorsobserver.com/news/qm-news/5836390363537278 6

Nice write-up, Perplexity! :-)

My issue with its logic is we're at the beginning of the beginning of A.I. and Nvidia literally cannot get their chips made fast enough for the demand. Any quarter where they cannot make revenue due to a chip shortage gets piled on top for the next quarter! It's the best business in the world right now.

[moka]

Good point, but: I'm seeing some cracks in the job market. Nothing major, though.https://www.macrotrends.net/1316/us-national-unemployment-rate
U.S. National Unemployment Rate.
The employment rate is a lagging indicator. Unemployment is usually low and doesn’t spike until the recession actually hits as the chart shows.

[Azz]

https://www.macrotrends.net/1316/us-national-unemployment-rate
U.S. National Unemployment Rate.
The employment rate is a lagging indicator. Unemployment is usually low and doesn’t spike until the recession actually hits as the chart shows.

Great chart!

[moka]

The HOPE Framework, and employment as a lagging indicator.

One framework that has proven to be an effective crystal ball in predicting the impact of rising interest rates is the HOPE framework, developed by renowned economist Michael Kantrowitz. HOPE, an acronym for Housing, Orders, Profits, and Employment, provides valuable insights into the sequence of events that typically unfold during economic downturns.

The HOPE framework emphasizes the interconnectedness of various sectors in the economy and their response to rising interest rates. It begins with housing, which typically peaks first, followed by new orders, then companies' profits, and finally employment. By closely monitoring these indicators, economists can gain a better understanding of the overall health of the economy and anticipate potential risks.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/navigating-current-state-us-economy-hope-framework-kamlesh-dixit

[Jaa]

Nice write-up, Perplexity! :-)

My issue with its logic is we're at the beginning of the beginning of A.I. and Nvidia literally cannot get their chips made fast enough for the demand. Any quarter where they cannot make revenue due to a chip shortage gets piled on top for the next quarter! It's the best business in the world right now.

Shortages breed competition and over investment. i.e. the business cycle

Maybe AI will be useful for more things than plagiarising like Perplexity did above. No guarantee AI will be reliant on Nvidia to do it though.

[Azz]

Shortages breed competition and over investment. i.e. the business cycle

Maybe AI will be useful for more things than plagiarising like Perplexity did above. No guarantee AI will be reliant on Nvidia to do it though.

Nvidia isn't just chips. It's software. And a datacenter ecosystem. They lead IN ALL THREE !

[Azz]

And the systems are not like one or two GPUs, we're talking multi-node with 8 GPUs per node!!!!

[Muse]

And the systems are not like one or two GPUs, we're talking multi-node with 8 GPUs per node!!!!

“We’re getting great co-operation from our supply chain. And it’s a complicated supply chain,” Mr Huang told Reuters. “People think it’s a GPU chip. But it’s a very complicated GPU system. It’s 70 pounds. It’s 35,000 components. It’s $US200,000.”

[Azz]

“We’re getting great co-operation from our supply chain. And it’s a complicated supply chain,” Mr Huang told Reuters. “People think it’s a GPU chip. But it’s a very complicated GPU system. It’s 70 pounds. It’s 35,000 components. It’s $US200,000.”

The best way to use this power is via their cloud service: "Rent your own AI center of excellence, designed for multi-node training and offered in concert with leading cloud service providers."

[ronaldson]

We could ask Perplexity AI what it thinks of the NZ economy. Can someone do that?

[Azz]

We could ask Perplexity AI what it thinks of the NZ economy. Can someone do that?

Calling moka !

[moka]

How is the NZ economy doing?

Answer
The New Zealand economy has experienced some fluctuations recently. Here is an overview of its current state:

Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.0% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024 1.
Private consumption is expected to weaken due to lower employment growth and rising mortgage-servicing costs 1.
Tighter credit conditions and weakening demand will weigh on business investment 1.

Unemployment is projected to increase, and headline inflation is expected to fall throughout the projection period 1.
Inflation declined to 6.0% in Q2 from 6.7% in Q1, remaining above the Central Bank's target band 3.

The New Zealand economy entered a technical recession after a 0.1% decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2023 4.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has embarked on an aggressive rate hike cycle, raising its benchmark rate to a 14-year high 4.

The outlook for the New Zealand economy remains highly uncertain, with the downturn still getting underway 5.
The housing market is picking up, but falling export prices, high CPI inflation, and uncertainty in international tourism and education are weighing on the economy 5.

Overall, the New Zealand economy is facing challenges such as slowing growth, rising inflation, and uncertainty in key sectors. The government and central bank are implementing policies to address these issues and stabilize the economy.

https://www.oecd.org/economy/new-zealand-economic-snapshot/ 1
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/13/new-zealand-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2023-article-iv-mission 2
https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/new-zealand/ 3
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/new-zealand-enters-recession.html 4
https://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/economic-markets-research/economic-outlook/ 5
https://www.heritage.org/index/country/newzealand 6

[Azz]

Azz:
In the form of bullet points, please outline what will happen to the New Zealand economy over the next 12 months, and include all aspects of the economy including those that affect individuals, companies, markets, and growth.

---------------------

Perplexity:
Here are the key points regarding the New Zealand economy over the next 12 months, based on the search results:

- New Zealand's economy has entered a recession due to higher interest rates and other factors[1][3][5][6].
- The recession is likely to last longer than six months and may have a significant impact on households and businesses[3].
- Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the March quarter, following a revised 0.7% fall in the previous quarter, fulfilling the nation's definition of a recession[1][3][5][6].
- The increase in food prices over the last 12 months was due to "rises across all the broad food categories"[2].
- The economy in the first quarter was hurt by Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland flash floods, which caused as much as NZ$14 billion ($8.6 billion) in damage[6].
- The New Zealand central bank's aggressive hiking of the cash rate likely pushed the country into a technical recession in the first quarter[6].
- The economy is expected to continue to contract over the next 12 months, although there may be some positive signs in the second half of the year[4].

Overall, the New Zealand economy is facing significant challenges over the next 12 months, with a recession likely to continue and impact both individuals and businesses.

Citations:
[1] https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/new-zealands-economy-dips-recession-higher-interest-rates-100098662
[2] https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/library-research-papers/monthly-economic-review/monthly-economic-review-july-2023/
[3] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-16/nz-enters-a-recession-as-economy-shrinks-again/102477992
[4] https://berl.co.nz/birds-eye-view/autumn-2023
[5] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-14/new-zealand-falls-into-recession-as-gdp-drops-in-first-quarter
[6] https://www.reuters.com/markets/new-zealands-economy-likely-recession-rate-hikes-take-hold-2023-06-13/

---------------------

[Azz]

Snap haha !

[Azz]

I want it to tell me the future !!! haha

[Azz]

Perplexity:
It is not possible to determine with certainty which team will win the next Rugby World Cup in 2023.

[Azz]

Useless. Back to the drawing board! :-)

[causecelebre]

It's so bad right now. There's a terrible feeling of malaise, of resignation. And the total SILENCE by the population on covid is spooky.

The *silence* was not by choice if you weren't being shutdown on social media and other platforms in the guise of misinformation and hate speech, you would be lambasted by your neighbours, who are influenced by such proxies of the DPMC such as the Disinformation Project, if not outright arrested.

Why would we want to stand up to be counted when even our own secret service launched an initiative to help the public identify individuals who have become radicalised. "Know the Signs" is a guide for identifying signs of extremism.

Indeed, the government clearly made a concerted effort to manipulate public opinion and the narrative by giving advance notice to Covid "Commentators" of announcements before they were made public. Further, as NZ Herald journalist, Kate Mcnamara, wrote "what is surprising here, and ill-advised, is the opaque endeavour to draw the independent voices of civil society, and particularly of academia, so close to the mechanism of Government spin."

Said Sanjana Hattotuwa, of the Disinformation Project, during Posie Parkers recent visit to NZ, "there has been a disturbing increase in anti-transgender sentiment following the rally in Auckland that disapproved of her presence". There was no empirical evidence this occurred to that extent and it is evident that these comments were intended to discredit and vilify critics of the counter-protest. This kind of propaganda is dangerous. It creates a false narrative that casts legitimate dissent and criticism as hate speech and attempts to silence those who hold differing views.

Are you willing?

[Panda-NZ-]

Since dairy prices are coming down, when can we expect to see cheap(er) milk in the supermarket. :confused:

[Valuegrowth]

Financial markets are tanking. No exception for the tech sector. So far NVDA is bucking the trend. I expect unexpected. I took refuge in defensive consumer staples.

[Daytr]

Financial markets are tanking. No exception for the tech sector. So far NVDA is bucking the trend. I expect unexpected. I took refuge in defensive consumer staples.

A good bit of whipsaw action in the last 48 hours. Shorts first covering off key support & ahead of the FED & then profit taking & clearing out long positions again in front of Jackson Hole.

I do wonder if this is a bit of sell the rumour/ buy the fact, but maybe that's just my book talking.

[workingdad]

Since dairy prices are coming down, when can we expect to see cheap(er) milk in the supermarket. :confused:

Haha 😂 I love it when they justify our high milk prices to meet internationally determined prices but when it’s low internationally we pay more to support the industry not to mention tax payer money every time there’s a drought or flood. Farmers will be up in arms with a comment like this but we simply pay more.

[stoploss]

Haha  I love it when they justify our high milk prices to meet internationally determined prices but when it’s low internationally we pay more to support the industry not to mention tax payer money every time there’s a drought or flood. Farmers will be up in arms with a comment like this but we simply pay more.
Totally agree with you . As part of the agreement with Fonterra giving them a near monopoly they should have stipulated that they supply the domestic
fresh milk market ( which is only something like 1% of their production) at a discount to the Export price .

[mike2020]

It will surprise you both but I can tell you when prices are high and they can get better money overseas they DONT pass the full cost on to NZ consumers.

[workingdad]

It will surprise you both but I can tell you when prices are high and they can get better money overseas they DONT pass the full cost on to NZ consumers.

I’m interested to understand this if you could explain. Looking at prices of Fontera milk brands overseas just now it’s cheaper than NZ pricing. Obviously supermarkets may not have the same margins but then again it must cost a bit to ship it internationally compared to down the road in little ol nz.

Same as petrol, the old saying goes when the nz dollar drops the fuel prices go up, when the nz dollar gains the fuel prices go up haha 😂

[mike2020]

I thought you were just talking fresh milk. I used to be a supplier and went to every Co meeting because the refreshments were the only positive of being a shareholder. I no longer have anything to do with the Co but it was often mentioned they/we basically subsidized fresh milk a lot of the time, which annoyed me because every man and his dog slagged the co plus all the staff whining as well yet wouldn't leave and we all know why. Fonterra did do a lot in the community that went unnoticed.

[workingdad]

I thought you were just talking fresh milk. I used to be a supplier and went to every Co meeting because the refreshments were the only positive of being a shareholder. I no longer have anything to do with the Co but it was often mentioned they/we basically subsidized fresh milk a lot of the time, which annoyed me because every man and his dog slagged the co plus all the staff whining as well yet wouldn't leave and we all know why. Fonterra did do a lot in the community that went unnoticed.

Yeah I guess we only see from a limited perspective, just a shame to see a staple that’s in abundance missed out on by so many below the poverty line in our once great country. Wish there were better ways…. For the benefit of those that need it

[Bobdn]

Milk is cheap. $5.80 for three litres. Edit: hold on $5.57 at Countdown right now.

Who is missing out on milk? Many (most?) New Zealanders are obese and look like they haven't missed a single meal in their entire lives.

[Panda-NZ-]

Everything made with milk is more expensive though...cheese, yoghurt etc.

Though, you can get a 1kg bag of milk powder (https://www.countdown.co.nz/shop/productdetails?stockcode=789358&gad=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjw_5unBhCMARIsACZyzS18ftIde6QGqlX4wNhH l_F0XxpoYKs5h-RN-aV8RX-xDLZcDIEAGKcaAunFEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds) at supermarkets which is cheaper than fresh milk if you don't mind the taste difference.

[troyvdh]

Mean while ..on this black Monday thread..I understand that 69% of Americans live from paycheck to paycheck and that mortgage rates are at 8 %....supposedly the highest in over 50 years...I could be wrong.

[Fortunecookie]

Mean while ..on this black Monday thread..I understand that 69% of Americans live from paycheck to paycheck and that mortgage rates are at 8 %....supposedly the highest in over 50 years...I could be wrong.

But I think there is a interesting dynamic to the US economy. That is most mortgages are fixed for 30 year terms. So I imagine when rates were low, people bought or refinanced to the lower rates. So in order not to lose the rates, nobody are selling so it in effect it is creating a housing shortfall.

I don't dispute that many households are living paycheck to paycheck. But perhaps it is based on some households being on lower rates.

[troyvdh]

Thanks cookie..I also understand that folk who own houses and cannot maintain the mortgage..can just walk away.Banks problem
It sounds like another "boom".

[Panda-NZ-]

Who is missing out on milk? Many (most?) New Zealanders are obese and look like they haven't missed a single meal in their entire lives.

To lose weight healthily you actually need high protein which only milk, yoghurt and meat can provide sufficiently.

Otherwise you lose muscle, then your metabolism slows.

[SailorRob]

To lose weight healthily you actually need high protein which only milk, yoghurt and meat can provide sufficiently.

Otherwise you lose muscle, then your metabolism slows.


Oh my god.

What do you even say to this?

You just stop god damned eating so much mate and get off yer arse.

[Panda-NZ-]

You just stop god damned eating so much mate and get off yer arse.

The "biggest loser" contestants tried that... they gained most of it back.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/exercise-metabolism-and-weight-new-research-from-the-biggest-loser-202201272676
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/02/health/biggest-loser-weight-loss.html

The funny thing is that in some ways they are even more wrecked than before given the need for low calories simply to maintain weight and the malnutrition that results.

Diets have to include good advice and nutrition to avoid issues like this. Trying to calorie restrict on junk food, also, has downsides (even if it doesn't outweigh the positives).

[Fortunecookie]

Thanks cookie..I also understand that folk who own houses and cannot maintain the mortgage..can just walk away.Banks problem
It sounds like another "boom".

Tbh I don't fully understand their housing industry. I knew they can just walk away from the homes and also what about the break costs when changing mortgages.

[Fortunecookie]

Do we need to rename this the Jenny Craigs thread.

[SailorRob]

The "biggest loser" contestants tried that... they gained most of it back.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/exercise-metabolism-and-weight-new-research-from-the-biggest-loser-202201272676
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/02/health/biggest-loser-weight-loss.html

The funny thing is that in some ways they are even more wrecked than before given the need for low calories simply to maintain weight and the malnutrition that results.

Diets have to include good advice and nutrition to avoid issues like this. Trying to calorie restrict on junk food, also, has downsides (even if it doesn't outweigh the positives).


Just plant some damn vegetables, catch and eat possum and eel

Get real man

[troyvdh]

Dear panda and sailor can you please depart this thread and give us adults some peace.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/5/31/infographic-how-does-us-debt-rank-compared-world
https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/countries-most-addicted-debt

[bull....]

Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/25/fed-chair-powell-calls-inflation-too-high-and-warns-that-we-are-prepared-to-raise-rates-further.html

jackson hole speech pretty much repeating his previous comments about being data dependant going forward

geez wonder if the nz50 will gain on monday ? down 5% for the mth

[Azz]

geez wonder if the nz50 will gain on monday ?

I doubt it. Things are looking very shaky for NZ.

[Azz]

The *silence* was not by choice if you weren't being shutdown on social media and other platforms in the guise of misinformation and hate speech, you would be lambasted by your neighbours, who are influenced by such proxies of the DPMC such as the Disinformation Project, if not outright arrested.

Why would we want to stand up to be counted when even our own secret service launched an initiative to help the public identify individuals who have become radicalised. "Know the Signs" is a guide for identifying signs of extremism.

Indeed, the government clearly made a concerted effort to manipulate public opinion and the narrative by giving advance notice to Covid "Commentators" of announcements before they were made public. Further, as NZ Herald journalist, Kate Mcnamara, wrote "what is surprising here, and ill-advised, is the opaque endeavour to draw the independent voices of civil society, and particularly of academia, so close to the mechanism of Government spin."

Said Sanjana Hattotuwa, of the Disinformation Project, during Posie Parkers recent visit to NZ, "there has been a disturbing increase in anti-transgender sentiment following the rally in Auckland that disapproved of her presence". There was no empirical evidence this occurred to that extent and it is evident that these comments were intended to discredit and vilify critics of the counter-protest. This kind of propaganda is dangerous. It creates a false narrative that casts legitimate dissent and criticism as hate speech and attempts to silence those who hold differing views.

Are you willing?

The Labour Government, for an extended time, put in place a police state with mass house-arrest and removal of dissent, and it was very easily executed, and had majority support from the populace.

[Azz]

Financial markets are tanking. No exception for the tech sector. So far NVDA is bucking the trend. I expect unexpected. I took refuge in defensive consumer staples.

I might take refuge in cash, for fund or fund-like assets.

[Azz]

Everything made with milk is more expensive though...cheese, yoghurt etc.

Buying loads of cheese at the supermarket is a good way to impress anyone who sees it as to your wealth and status. The New Zealand equivalent of owning a super yacht.

[Snoopy]

Buying loads of cheese at the supermarket is a good way to impress anyone who sees it as to your wealth and status. The New Zealand equivalent of owning a super yacht.


Quite right. And owning a super-yacht that has been hand carved out of cheese: the ultimate status symbol for a kiwi!

SNOOPY

[mike2020]

Quite right. And owning a super-yacht that has been hand carved out of cheese: the ultimate status symbol for a kiwi!

SNOOPY

So if I'm reading the room correctly, it's actually ok to cry over spilt milk now?

[zigzag]

So if I'm reading the room correctly, it's actually ok to cry over spilt milk now?

As long as it's A2 Milk - Cry your eyes out!

[ValueNZ]

I might take refuge in cash, for fund or fund-like assets.
Cash is probably better than your art "investment" and bitcoin.

For normal investors going into cash at any given point to try time the market is a very stupid idea.

[Bobdn]

I buy full fat Value brand milk at Pak and Save. I use it in tea and coffee, add a dash when making scramble eggs and also drink it by the glass on occasion.

[troyvdh]

Are posts on sharetrader censored.
They probably are......What is the criteria.

[bull....]

I buy full fat Value brand milk at Pak and Save. I use it in tea and coffee, add a dash when making scramble eggs and also drink it by the glass on occasion.

i find cheap branded milk curdles in my breakfast if i give it a nuke ... must be the cheap ingradients

[Bobdn]

Haha yes cheap ingredients. "Ingredients: milk 100 per cent".

[thegreatestben]

i find cheap branded milk curdles in my breakfast if i give it a nuke ... must be the cheap ingradients

Bull's milk curdles, you heard it here first.

[Bobdn]

Bearish for milk.

Petrol is considerably more expensive than milk today.

[Azz]

Cash is probably better than your art "investment" and bitcoin.

hahahahahaha !!!! "Cash" over the lifetime of my art and bitcoin is such a bad loser compared, you would break down and cry!

[Azz]

For normal investors going into cash at any given point to try time the market is a very stupid idea.

I agree.....

[Azz]

Quite right. And owning a super-yacht that has been hand carved out of cheese: the ultimate status symbol for a kiwi!

Now you're thinking, Snoopy! :-)

[bull....]

I doubt it. Things are looking very shaky for NZ.

yep NZ 50 opens down yet again

[thegreatestben]

https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/new-imf-data-ranks-nz-as-worst-gdp-growth-out-of-159-nations-in-world-along-with-equatorial-guinea

Ouch!

[DavidB]

https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/new-imf-data-ranks-nz-as-worst-gdp-growth-out-of-159-nations-in-world-along-with-equatorial-guinea

Ouch!

Well at least we can say we are winning one race. To the bottom!

[bull....]

NZ in a debt pickle from out of control govt spending

[winner69]

https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/post/new-imf-data-ranks-nz-as-worst-gdp-growth-out-of-159-nations-in-world-along-with-equatorial-guinea

Ouch!

Load of codswallop from IMF

They were warned not to use ChatGPT to sort out their spreadsheets / models …things got all muddled
up

This just highlights the folly of AI

[causecelebre]

Doesn't read well does it. I have been reducing my exposure to NZ equities for a while now. Not only do we have poor fiscal management but our exposure to China is concerning

[ValueNZ]

hahahahahaha !!!! "Cash" over the lifetime of my art and bitcoin is such a bad loser compared, you would break down and cry!
That's not a surprise cash is horrible and both crypto and art have had serious speculative runs as of late, likely as a result of interest rates being held so low for so long. Still I would rather watch my cash lose value over time in a savings account than hold art or crypto.

Of course I would never do so. I have 95% of my net worth in equities that I believe are significantly undervalued and would only sell them if
a. An even better, more undervalued opportunity came along
b. They rose to what I believe to be fairly valued

Your crypto and art hold no intrinsic value.

[Azz]

Your crypto and art hold no intrinsic value.

That's a really dumb thing to say! They are priced within markets.

[Azz]

Still I would rather watch my cash lose value over time in a savings account than hold art or crypto.

And this is pretty dumb too !

[EDIT: you're entitled to your opinion; and you might be right, depending on the specific crypto and art!]

[Azz]

I have 95% of my net worth in equities that I believe are significantly undervalued and would only sell them if
a. An even better, more undervalued opportunity came along
b. They rose to what I believe to be fairly valued

Good Lord, this statement is highly suspect as well !

"I have 95% of my net worth in equities..." - that's not a good idea!
[EDIT: Please clarify what you mean here.]

...especially if they're "significantly undervalued" lol - ie, significantly undervalued in your single opinion. Your opinion doesn't value things: the market does.

[ValueNZ]

That's a really dumb thing to say! They are priced within markets.
Intrinsic value is the sum of discounted future cash flows. Given art and crypto are non-cash generating assets it is fair to say they hold no intrinsic value.

[ValueNZ]

And this is pretty dumb too !

[EDIT: you're entitled to your opinion; and you might be right, depending on the specific crypto and art!]
I'd rather not participate in speculative activities. Perhaps you have better predictive abilities than I, and will do well out of crypto and art.

[ValueNZ]

Good Lord, this statement is highly suspect as well !

"I have 95% of my net worth in equities..." - that's not a good idea!
[EDIT: Please clarify what you mean here.]

...especially if they're "significantly undervalued" lol - ie, significantly undervalued in your single opinion. Your opinion doesn't value things: the market does.
Of course the market values securities. Every investor has the right to have an opinion as to whether a stock is fairly valued, only time will tell who is correct.

What clarification are you looking for? Tell me why it's not a good idea. There are members here who have over 100% of their net worth invested.

[Azz]

What clarification are you looking for? Tell me why it's not a good idea. There are members here who have over 100% of their net worth invested.

I would never have so high a percentage of my net worth in one asset class (eg, equities). What if there's a crash?

[Azz]

Intrinsic value is the sum of discounted future cash flows. Given art and crypto are non-cash generating assets it is fair to say they hold no intrinsic value.

"Intrinsic" value means nothing to the market: it only means something to you!

[ValueNZ]

"Intrinsic" value means nothing to the market: it only means something to you!
Sometimes it means nothing to the market, recognising when fundamentals have been thrown out the door is how you earn a return that beats the SP500.

[ValueNZ]

I would never have so high a percentage of my net worth in one asset class (eg, equities). What if there's a crash?
That's when I get excited!

[winner69]

Intrinsic value is the sum of discounted future cash flows. Given art and crypto are non-cash generating assets it is fair to say they hold no intrinsic value.

A piece of art has a future cash value when it’s sold …..so its future cash flows are (years held X 0 plus sale price) discounted back to todays $ …it’s intrinsic value

Don’t know how crypto works

[ValueNZ]

A piece of art has a future cash value when it’s sold …..so its future cash flows are (years held X 0 plus sale price) discounted back to todays $ …it’s intrinsic value

Don’t know how crypto works
Why would you assign a future cash value to something that is so unreasonably hard to predict its future price?

[winner69]

Why would you assign a future cash value to something that is so unreasonably hard to predict its future price?

Question then why assign a value to a series of cash flows that could be ‘unreasonably’ hard predict in the future

[Azz]

Why would you assign a future cash value to something that is so unreasonably hard to predict its future price?

You know what's unreasonably hard to predict its future price? Tradable equities!

[ValueNZ]

You know what's unreasonably hard to predict its future price? Tradable equities!
You're correct. I'm not in the business of predicting companies share prices, I'm in the business of purchasing stock in companies with cheap share prices despite favourable fundamentals. If you can't discern the difference that shows lack of knowledge on your part.

[ValueNZ]

Question then why assign a value to a series of cash flows that could be ‘unreasonably’ hard predict in the future
If you cannot reasonably predict the cash a business can produce within a set range you probably shouldn't be investing in it.

The answer to your question is I wouldnt.

[bull....]

You're correct. I'm not in the business of predicting companies share prices, I'm in the business of purchasing stock in companies with cheap share prices despite favourable fundamentals. If you can't discern the difference that shows lack of knowledge on your part.

So your in the business of predicting fundamentals

[Azz]

You're correct. I'm not in the business of predicting companies share prices, I'm in the business of purchasing stock in companies with cheap share prices despite favourable fundamentals. If you can't discern the difference that shows lack of knowledge on your part.

There's no difference; you're still predicting the future. You may have seen favourable fundamentals in BlackBerry, for example - before Jobs brought to market the iPhone.

[ValueNZ]

So your in the business of predicting fundamentals
Yes, in particular the amount of cash that is able to be generated by a business. It is much more predictable than trying to guess which way a price may go in the next week, month or year.

If you assume the absolute worst case scenario in terms of cash generation, and the price you pay for that cash flow is still significantly lower with a margin of safety you more than likely cannot go wrong given a long enough period of time.

[bull....]

Yes, in particular the amount of cash that is able to be generated by a business. It is much more predictable than trying to guess which way a price may go in the next week, month or year.

If you assume the absolute worst case scenario in terms of cash generation, and the price you pay for that cash flow is still significantly lower with a margin of safety you cannot go wrong given a long enough period of time.

i can relate with what your saying even if it is an art which comes with practice , just like share price prediction both work in the long run for steady returns if your able to master your chosen practice repeatably

[SailorRob]

"I have 95% of my net worth in equities..." - that's not a good idea!
[EDIT: Please clarify what you mean here.]


Correct, not a good idea at all. Nowhere near enough.

Find a way to non recourse cheap leverage and get 200% plus (PLUS++) of your net worth invested. Essentially borrowing at negative real rates and buying productive inflation protected assets.

Over decades you will become immensely wealthy, if there is a crash and prices are depressed for a decade or more (at your age preferably a 25 year market depression while economic conditions are ok, think like 1965 to 1980 type situation) then you could become the richest man in NZ.

Or borrow 800% of your net worth and buy a ****ty house... we all think that is normal.

Everything ValueNZ says would have Buffetts nod of approval.

As for the rest of you, learn something.

[Bjauck]

Correct, not a good idea at all. Nowhere near enough.

Find a way to non recourse cheap leverage and get 200% plus (PLUS++) of your net worth invested. Essentially borrowing at negative real rates and buying productive inflation protected assets.

Over decades you will become immensely wealthy, if there is a crash and prices are depressed for a decade or more (at your age preferably a 25 year market depression while economic conditions are ok, think like 1965 to 1980 type situation) then you could become the richest man in NZ.

Or borrow 800% of your net worth and buy a ****ty house... we all think that is normal.

Everything ValueNZ says would have Buffetts nod of approval.

As for the rest of you, learn something.
That sounds like a good way to cure constipation.

[Daytr]

That sounds like a good way to cure constipation.

Absolute lunatic strategy by SailorRob.
You could become become very rich or bankrupt.
Not sure who is going to lend to you to borrow 200% let alone 800% of your net worth against an equity portfolio.

What happens if that portfolio loses 20% and you have borrowed 2 x or 8 x your net worth?
Meanwhile paying double digit interest rates as I would like to see any lender lending against a leveraged equity portfolio at anything below 10%.

But let's all learn something 🤣
This is the same guy who said recently that the economy was running hot.
I probably don't need to put out this warning as it should be quite apparent to most.
But the advice from this guy is dangerous.
Anyone can get lucky. Are you feeling lucky punk? 😅

[SailorRob]

Absolute lunatic strategy by SailorRob.
You could become become very rich or bankrupt.
Not sure who is going to lend to you to borrow 200% let alone 800% of your net worth against an equity portfolio.

What happens if that portfolio loses 20% and you have borrowed 2 x or 8 x your net worth?
Meanwhile paying double digit interest rates as I would like to see any lender lending against a leveraged equity portfolio at anything below 10%.

But let's all learn something 🤣
This is the same guy who said recently that the economy was running hot.
I probably don't need to put out this warning as it should be quite apparent to most.
But the advice from this guy is dangerous.
Anyone can get lucky. Are you feeling lucky punk? 😅


Forget about the fact that I said NON RECOURSE. And CHEAP.

If your portfolio loses 20% then you'll just end up richer assuming it's lost 20% due to market not less discounted future cash flow value.

This is essentially Berkshires operating model.

Berkshire borrows at negative nominal rates for their stock portfolio...

[SailorRob]

That sounds like a good way to cure constipation.


I'd personally borrow 1000% of my net worth if I could do so non recourse and cheaply and I'd invest the whole lot in Berkshire.

[SailorRob]

Absolute lunatic strategy by SailorRob.
You could become become very rich or bankrupt.
Not sure who is going to lend to you to borrow 200% let alone 800% of your net worth against an equity portfolio.

What happens if that portfolio loses 20% and you have borrowed 2 x or 8 x your net worth?
Meanwhile paying double digit interest rates as I would like to see any lender lending against a leveraged equity portfolio at anything below 10%.

But let's all learn something 🤣
This is the same guy who said recently that the economy was running hot.
I probably don't need to put out this warning as it should be quite apparent to most.
But the advice from this guy is dangerous.
Anyone can get lucky. Are you feeling lucky punk? 😅


I'm feeling lucky.

Your returns against mine over last 5 years or longer for 100k bet to charity?

The pro vs the idiot amateur?

Surely you'd win this bet?

[SailorRob]

Any serious equity investors here who can state why, if you're young and could obtain non recourse funding at cheap rates, you wouldn't borrow 200% of your net worth to invest in productive equity assets provided you know what you're doing and can generate a volatile 10% return over the years vs much lower cost of debt?

The response from the Day Trader did not take into account the conditions that I stipulated.

[bull....]

Any serious equity investors here who can state why, if you're young and could obtain non recourse funding at cheap rates, you wouldn't borrow 200% of your net worth to invest in productive equity assets provided you know what you're doing and can generate a volatile 10% return over the years vs much lower cost of debt?

The response from the Day Trader did not take into account the conditions that I stipulated.

yep right stocks and your away laughing. got a flexi - loan in late 2007 and went on a buying spree in 2008 during the gfc doubled up with a margin loan on the stocks i brought with the flexi - loan as well to buy even more stocks. all this with rates similar to now.
although i must agree if it had not gone my way i would have lost a lot .... you need to know what your doing with this sort of levergage

[ValueNZ]

Any serious equity investors here who can state why, if you're young and could obtain non recourse funding at cheap rates, you wouldn't borrow 200% of your net worth to invest in productive equity assets provided you know what you're doing and can generate a volatile 10% return over the years vs much lower cost of debt?

The response from the Day Trader did not take into account the conditions that I stipulated.
I agree if the loan was cheap to service, non recourse and non callable, it probably would make sense to take out a large loan to invest in productive assets.

Being non callable is important I think as volatility is to be expected and it'd suck so bad to be right about an investment but be margin called because the price of the shares fell.

[thegreatestben]

I had a flexi sitting undrawn in 2020, saw the opportunities and went with what I thought were "can't lose" choices. No regrets!
I figured if it went badly for me everyone would be stuffed too!

[bull....]

yea and do it with stocks that pay a dividend and are good companies , not spec stocks , that takes care of the int bill to a large degree

[alokdhir]

yea and do it with stocks that pay a dividend and are good companies , not spec stocks , that takes care of the int bill to a large
degree
.
Like KFL which will cover almost all current rate interest burden and on top it has PIE tax advantage too ...:p But pity Bull not happy with KFL ...its a safer fund then single stock risks ...at discount too which covers fund costs for few years ahead ....so no need whine about fund charges etc :D

On top it has all mega cap blue chips which run first in case of market turn around !!

[bull....]

.
Like KFL which will cover almost all current rate interest burden and on top it has PIE tax advantage too ...:p But pity Bull not happy with KFL ...its a safer fund then single stock risks ...at discount too which covers fund costs for few years ahead ....so no need whine about fund charges etc :D

On top it has all mega cap blue chips which run first in case of market turn around !!

those kfl warrants look like they going to zero :scared: but i agree buying kfl in 2008 was very good to s/h maybe not so much now with the capital being lost

[Daytr]

I agree if the loan was cheap to service, non recourse and non callable, it probably would make sense to take out a large loan to invest in productive assets.

Being non callable is important I think as volatility is to be expected and it'd suck so bad to be right about an investment but be margin called because the price of the shares fell.

Where are these cheap non recourse loans at multiples of your net worth available?
Anyone?

Berkshire Hathaway can do what the simple punter can't as they own a huge amount of diversified assets, have a huge amount of cash and have an outstanding record over decades of investing.

However I would be very concerned about their view on climate change and how it will impact their insurance business.

In two weeks in NZ earlier this year, climate events cost $4Bln. This according to a report for the Insurance body said was equivalent of a century's worth of what they would expect for weather events in NZ. Many councils cannot afford the huge increases in insurance premiums they are facing on their assets.

[alokdhir]

those kfl warrants look like they going to zero :scared: but i agree buying kfl in 2008 was very good to s/h maybe not so much now with the capital being lost

In 2028 U wud be feeling differently ...IMHO ....

Also going to zero !! 2021 warrants went to 3 cents and then ended with 45.5 cents towards end ...so lots of time ....if go to zero then buy infinite amount to become richest man in NZ ....:p

[bull....]

In 2028 U wud be feeling differently ...IMHO ....

Also going to zero !! 2021 warrants went to 3 cents and then ended with 45.5 cents towards end ...so lots of time ....if go to zero then buy infinite amount to become richest man in NZ ....:p

lol maybe ill load my credit card up at .01c ? should get a million

[SailorRob]

Where are these cheap non recourse loans at multiples of your net worth available?
Anyone?

Berkshire Hathaway can do what the simple punter can't as they own a huge amount of diversified assets, have a huge amount of cash and have an outstanding record over decades of investing.

However I would be very concerned about their view on climate change and how it will impact their insurance business.

In two weeks in NZ earlier this year, climate events cost $4Bln. This according to a report for the Insurance body said was equivalent of a century's worth of what they would expect for weather events in NZ. Many councils cannot afford the huge increases in insurance premiums they are facing on their assets.

Oh man another classic from the pro.

Berkshire is totally protected no matter what as the get to set their rates... It's all short policy...

Warren has explained this is great detail at a level even the day trader should be able to understand.

[SailorRob]

I agree if the loan was cheap to service, non recourse and non callable, it probably would make sense to take out a large loan to invest in productive assets.

Being non callable is important I think as volatility is to be expected and it'd suck so bad to be right about an investment but be margin called because the price of the shares fell.

Yes I meant to include non callable within the non recourse.

Lots of replies here but all missing my point. I'm not talking about big leveraged market timing calls.

I'm talking about leveraging up and investing for 40 years with the increased asset base. Doesn't require any type of timing or anything.

Yes hard to find funds like this, but I never said it wasn't. Not impossible.

[SailorRob]

Day Trader knows better than Buffett.

No surprise there.

[bull....]

Yes I meant to include non callable within the non recourse.

Lots of replies here but all missing my point. I'm not talking about big leveraged market timing calls.

I'm talking about leveraging up and investing for 40 years with the increased asset base. Doesn't require any type of timing or anything.

Yes hard to find funds like this, but I never said it wasn't. Not impossible.

lost me , better explain how us mere mortals ( not buffett ) can do it without using a leveraged loan backed by collateral.

im guessing your done it ?

[bull....]

sailor rob ... banned now he cant asnwer the question ........... was he banned for talking sh..t ?

[Daytr]

sailor rob ... banned now he cant asnwer the question ........... was he banned for talking sh..t ?

Really? Not surprising I suppose and yes I probably agree that was the reason. Or for attacking any poster that disagreed with him.

[ValueNZ]

Means a mod decided to logon for the first time in months I guess. Valuegrowth remains unbanned whilst definitely being an AI chatbot, and the forums greatest poster is banned with no reason given. It would be good if there was a thread which was only allowed to be posted in by mods, where they gave the reason for the ban and the length.

[Bobdn]

Probably going to get in trouble for this but rump steak is $14.90 a kg at Countdown this week. It's an inflation buster and a ray of sunshine in these dark times. Throw some onions in with it (I chopped up garlic tonight) and boil up some spinach and you've got yourself a highly nutritious meal.

Just because NZ has one of the worst economies in the OECD at the moment, doesn't mean one can't eat well.

[Daytr]

Means a mod decided to logon for the first time in months I guess. Valuegrowth remains unbanned whilst definitely being an AI chatbot, and the forums greatest poster is banned with no reason given. It would be good if there was a thread which was only allowed to be posted in by mods, where they gave the reason for the ban and the length.

Greatest poster. Sounds like a Trump statement. 🤣

[ValueNZ]

Greatest poster. Sounds like a Trump statement. 藍
Haha maybe. I will say I come to this forum to learn and debate ideas, and I think I have learnt quite a bit just from reading SailorRobs posts so it's somewhat frustrating he's been banned

[Fortunecookie]

https://careersmart.org.uk/occupations/equality/which-jobs-do-men-and-women-do-occupational-breakdown-gender

It will be interesting to see the impact of AI. Potentially there may be an uneven effect between men and women given that percentage wise women are employed in office type roles. Office roles are probably most at risk of AI. Is this the beginning of a baby boom.

[Fortunecookie]

I don't always agree with SR, but I don't think his comments were that bad.

[Fortunecookie]

Re: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132745696/forensic-accounting-ai-redflags16-kiwi-companies-at-risk-of-failing

The investing game just got tougher thanks to AI.

[Baa_Baa]

Haha maybe. I will say I come to this forum to learn and debate ideas, and I think I have learnt quite a bit just from reading SailorRobs posts so it's somewhat frustrating he's been banned

Agree, he might be a bit acerbic and intolerant of ignorance, but he's entertaining and has challenged all of us to think a bit more about what we invest in, and why.

Hopefully his banning is short term, and hopefully he doesn't have a hissy fit about it and comes back. Too many very talented people have been permanently banned and never come back.

[Rawz]

Probably banned for not paying up that $200k bet to LEK. Fair enough

[Valuegrowth]

Means a mod decided to logon for the first time in months I guess. Valuegrowth remains unbanned whilst definitely being an AI chatbot, and the forums greatest poster is banned with no reason given. It would be good if there was a thread which was only allowed to be posted in by mods, where they gave the reason for the ban and the length.

I have not done any wrong to be banned. Different people have different writing style and personality.

[alokdhir]

$740 million on average per year from introducing a 15 percent foreign buyer tax on purchase of houses worth over $2 million
$525 million on average per year from ending the commercial building depreciation tax break
$179 million on average per year from closing a tax loophole and ensuring offshore operators delivering online gambling to New Zealanders, pay tax
$123 million on average per year from moving to user-pays immigration levies, excluding tourist visas.


This shud effect some listed companies badly ....Commercial REITs and SKC comes to mind !!

[Sideshow Bob]

$740 million on average per year from introducing a 15 percent foreign buyer tax on purchase of houses worth over $2 million
$525 million on average per year from ending the commercial building depreciation tax break
$179 million on average per year from closing a tax loophole and ensuring offshore operators delivering online gambling to New Zealanders, pay tax
$123 million on average per year from moving to user-pays immigration levies, excluding tourist visas.


This shud effect some listed companies badly ....Commercial REITs and SKC comes to mind !!

KPG, ARG, PCT all down 2-4% today, GMT down <1%.

But then Vital and PFI are both up marginally.....

[ValueNZ]

$525 million on average per year from ending the commercial building depreciation tax break

Tax break... As if depreciation isn't a legitimate expense which businesses face.

Seems to me like a way of sneaking CGT in through the backdoor.

[Baa_Baa]

[/LIST]
Tax break... As if depreciation isn't a legitimate expense which businesses face.

Seems to me like a way of sneaking CGT in through the backdoor.

It's an incongruous and out of context tax grab from National, who wouldn't normally penalise businesses that own assets. Depreciation is, as you say, a legitimate expense on business (the depreciation rates specified in tax law), so removing this deduction is is not a "tax break", it is a tax penalty on business, quite the opposite of what we might expect from National.

Still working through the details of the National announcements today, but there's some quite counterintuitive policies for a centre right party. It seems almost desperate to catch the centre, at peril of forsaking the right (where the wealth really comes from).

[RTM]

Haha maybe. I will say I come to this forum to learn and debate ideas, and I think I have learnt quite a bit just from reading SailorRobs posts so it's somewhat frustrating he's been banned

Agreed. One of his most concerning posts for me was where he asked...from memory..something like..."who would invest more than 5% of their net wealth in a country with just two products to sell to the world." Hmmm...made me think of my asset allocation a bit.

[RTM]

Evening all, please see below.

"Sailor Rob wishes to thank supporters. He has been banned for 'too many complaints' He wants to say that he doesn't even know how to complain about anyone and never would dream of it. He thinks it best that ideas are best debated not censored. He asks why nobody has complained to him instead of weaseling to the teacher. He wishes to remind all that the value of anything is simply the sum of the net cash that will be generated from the enterprise between now and eternity discounted back to today. He suggests using a discount rate of between 10 and 15%. He says to focus on both the certainty and the timing. If no cash is generated next year this simply burdens the future even more."

[mistaTea]

You guys see SB got banned and the reason given was “too many complaints”.

So not a specific offending post (that actually breaks the rules)

Geez. I know he spars with a lot of people - but a bit harsh to get a ban!

[Bjauck]

[/LIST]
Tax break... As if depreciation isn't a legitimate expense which businesses face.

Seems to me like a way of sneaking CGT in through the backdoor.

Worse than that - there does not need to be a capital gain for it to be imposed.

I hope the Nats don't take more leaves out of the playbook from the British right wing Conservatives, whose Boris Johnson said "F*** business" when some business leaders criticised his policies. Because there wouldn't be any Party left that I would vote for...

[Snow Leopard]

....

"Sailor Rob wishes to thank supporters. He has been banned for 'too many complaints' He wants to say that he doesn't even know how to complain about anyone and never would dream of it. He thinks it best that ideas are best debated not censored. He asks why nobody has complained to him instead of weaseling to the teacher. He wishes to remind all that the value of anything is simply the sum of the net cash that will be generated from the enterprise between now and eternity discounted back to today. He suggests using a discount rate of between 10 and 15%. He says to focus on both the certainty and the timing. If no cash is generated next year this simply burdens the future even more."

That quote fits perfectly with his personality, lack of social awareness and narrow-minded obsessions.

I did not put him on my ignore list just to have some other poster act as his mouth-piece whilst banned so you go on the list too.

And don't expect to get a Christmas Card from me either :p

[blackcap]

You guys see SB got banned and the reason given was “too many complaints”.

So not a specific offending post (that actually breaks the rules)

Geez. I know he spars with a lot of people - but a bit harsh to get a ban!

Totally agree. I sparred with Sailor Rob on the OCA thread. But he had an alternative view to mine, and that is a good thing. It makes you think. It did not alter my thinking on that occasion but gave a different perspective.

If people had been complaining to mods, but not sought SR first, that reeks of cowardice.

[Rawz]

People told SR to converse in a respectful manner a 1000x yet he still called them ‘sport’ and talked down to them like he was the king of sharetrader.

He was probably the poster on most ignore lists due to his constant attacks.

Too bad for him, he made his bed. Not missing much, he’s pretty repetitive, OCA liabilities is good and nobody can beat Buffett.

And let’s not forget that bet he made with LEK that KPG cash flows couldn’t pay the dividend. Snoopy proved they could and he would just reply with 1 line rubbish. Bit of a time waster

[mistaTea]

People told SR to converse in a respectful manner a 1000x yet he still called them ‘sport’ and talked down to them like he was the king of sharetrader.

He was probably the poster on most ignore lists due to his constant attacks.

Too bad for him, he made his bed. Not missing much, he’s pretty repetitive, OCA liabilities is good and nobody can beat Buffett.

And let’s not forget that bet he made with LEK that KPG cash flows couldn’t pay the dividend. Snoopy proved they could and he would just reply with 1 line rubbish. Bit of a time waster

That all may well be true.

But banning someone for not being ‘respectful’? For ‘talking down’ to people?

As you say, that kind of thing is largely managed with a users ability to use the ignore list function.

I am just surprised that the admins took such a heavy handed approach.

It sounds like if enough people have hurt feelings and whinge then we get banned now?

[alokdhir]

SR got lots of positive feedback too thats why he had 6 green boxes from appox 2000 posts while many others are trailing him ...shows many people approved of his posts too and found them to be useful

When we already have a system of positive and negative feedback about posts then no place left for individual complaints leading to Banning ...unless someone really losses it in one particular post .

Negative / positive feedback shud automatically take care of regular sparring stuff ...imo

[Perky]

Sailor Rob was banned as he was Always on Starboard

[Daytr]

SailorRob was his own worst enemy and was irrational. His ludicrous challenges he would make as a defense mechanism. " show me your last 25 trades" etc. I didn't realise that someone had actually taken him up on one & win & he didn't pay up. Says it all really.

I don’t remember seeing any particularly illuminating tips or 'advice' maybe he did over the years before he started trolling me & I became aware of him.

He is obviously intelligent but when challenged acted like a child. It's a shame because if he had a different attitude he may have added value.

He also posted a lot of nonsense like the "economy is running hot in a recession" but there were many other clangers.

I got called a liar, a shyster and many other names under the sun. Once proven wrong, on many occasions, his standard comment was "that's fair" and no apology for the string of insults. The insults themselves are water off a duck's back but it doesn't create valuable debate or discussion.

For some reason he had a real chip on his shoulder against anyone from within the finance industry as if having real world experience was a bad thing. Unfortunately that's the way of the world, scientists and experts are being undermined by people who actually have no real understanding of what they do or did.

Everyone makes mistakes & gets it wrong, obviously including me. The key is to own them.

Anyway I won't miss him, in fact after this post I will have forgotten him.

Hopefully this thread now can get back to discussing markets, instead of what milk you have in your latte or a barrage of personal insults & attacks.

[ValueNZ]

Probably banned for not paying up that $200k bet to LEK. Fair enough

And let’s not forget that bet he made with LEK that KPG cash flows couldn’t pay the dividend. Snoopy proved they could and he would just reply with 1 line rubbish. Bit of a time waster

SailorRob was his own worst enemy and was irrational. His ludicrous challenges he would make as a defense mechanism. " show me your last 25 trades" etc. I didn't realise that someone had actually taken him up on one & win & he didn't pay up. Says it all really.
There was no contract signed by both parties and no winner declared. These posts are really stupid IMO.

[Rawz]

Bring back Beagle

[ValueNZ]

That all may well be true.

But banning someone for not being ‘respectful’? For ‘talking down’ to people?

As you say, that kind of thing is largely managed with a users ability to use the ignore list function.

I am just surprised that the admins took such a heavy handed approach.

It sounds like if enough people have hurt feelings and whinge then we get banned now?
The problem is that the rules are super vague and basically can be enforced however the mods please.

"Users will not interfere with the use and enjoyment of Websites by other Users (for example, by harassing or threatening another participant of the message boards or blog comments, including the use of expressions of bigotry, racism, sexism, hatred, or profanity)"

Plenty of profanity on these threads that slips through the filter, should everyone who evades the profanity filter be banned too?

What does expression of hatred mean? Should everyone who criticises government on the election threads be banned? Theres plenty of expression of hatred for our current government, and government officials there.

Plenty of questions with no answers, and will likely not recieve an answer.

[justakiwi]

He's not stupid enough to come back ;)


Bring back Beagle

[Joshuatree]

That's when I get excited!
So you've always got a pool of cash to draw on even to add,top-up,when fully or near fully invested,how do you achieve that.?
Am curious what stocks you hold and you sell when you believe full value is in the shareprice?Your skillset is far beyond this mere mortal, I follow Value Investors some who are friends.Thanks!

[Joshuatree]

That's when I get excited!


Evening all, please see below.

"Sailor Rob wishes to thank supporters. He has been banned for 'too many complaints' He wants to say that he doesn't even know how to complain about anyone and never would dream of it. He thinks it best that ideas are best debated not censored. He asks why nobody has complained to him instead of weaseling to the teacher. He wishes to remind all that the value of anything is simply the sum of the net cash that will be generated from the enterprise between now and eternity discounted back to today. He suggests using a discount rate of between 10 and 15%. He says to focus on both the certainty and the timing. If no cash is generated next year this simply burdens the future even more."

Hope he chooses to come back after his ban (or is it permanent, I will complain if so and urge others to as well)?) period,he adds a hell of a lot of value to the threads and this site would be the poorer without him.,Just too much snowflaking going on here.

[causecelebre]

If he was banned because snowflakes, then said sknowflake's haven't spent enough time in other sections of this forum to really read the vitriol.

[Bobdn]

Sailor Rob acknowledged the value of index/etf investing and how many people on this site would be better off with that approach. It's an important point.

Since becoming a Boglehead of sorts, Ivd got little to add now to NZ Sharetrader.

One final point I will make before I head off: Pak and Save rump steak per kg is $14.79 today. Also, the Taverners brand wine gums at The Warehouse are exceptional in my opinion. Absolutely worth a try.

[Joshuatree]

That's when I get excited!


If he was banned because snowflakes, then said sknowflake's haven't spent enough time in other sections of this forum to really read the vitriol.

Vitriol :) Get a life and stop taking things personally,it's not about you,it's banter ,it's ego ,mixed in with valuable opinions and knowledge worth considering or not,we are richer for it.

[ValueNZ]

So you've always got a pool of cash to draw on even to add,top-up,when fully or near fully invested,how do you achieve that.?
Am curious what stocks you hold and you sell when you believe full value is in the shareprice?Your skillset is far beyond this mere mortal, I follow Value Investors some who are friends.Thanks!
I definitely do not have a pool of cash to add to my investments, if I had any cash available which I didn't need for expenses the funds would be invested immediately. The reason why a market crash would be beneficial for me, is because I am a net buyer of stocks and I am likely to be for the next 40+ years. If stock prices are falling whilst intrinsic value (sum of future discounted cash flows) remains constant, then I am better off as I am presented with the opportunity to purchase these cash flows at a cheaper rate than before. Even if I do not have much cash currently, I will be earning income in the future and earning dividend yields on my stock which can be invested. Plus, low stock prices provide the businesses I am invested in with the opportunity to repurchase shares, which means that even if I am not actively purchasing stock myself I am still better off with a lower share price.

This is not my prediction, but the ideal scenario for me would be a stock market that crashes as low as possible, as long as possible whilst not impacting the cash generating abilities of businesses too much. I do believe I am better off with a depressed market than an exuberant market in the long run.

Currently I only hold two stocks, Oceania healthcare and Stellantis. Both are companies which I believe are significantly undervalued and should outperform the SP500 over the next ten years. As I gain experience I should be able to expand the number of shareholdings, but I wont do that at the expense of a worse long term result. I would prefer more volatility in my returns and a higher CAGR, than to diversify amongst worse companies and have less volatility but a lower CAGR.

Please take what I write with a grain of salt. I am 17 years old, so not a lot of experience.

[causecelebre]

Vitriol :) Get a life and stop taking things personally,it's not about you,it's banter ,it's ego ,mixed in with valuable opinions and knowledge worth considering or not,we are richer for it.

Joshuatree. I take nothing personally mate. Its an observation. Indeed, I was suggesting that there are sensitive types on this forum that do not have the stomach for some of the comments. You obviously haven't spent anytime in the Elections section and that is where I was referring to. I'm sorry its not banter. Its idealism and the 'passion' thats goes with that.

[Azz]

You're correct. I'm not in the business of predicting companies share prices, I'm in the business of purchasing stock in companies with cheap share prices despite favourable fundamentals. If you can't discern the difference that shows lack of knowledge on your part.


There's no difference; you're still predicting the future. You may have seen favourable fundamentals in BlackBerry, for example - before Jobs brought to market the iPhone.

ValueNZ, you haven't commented on my post...

[kiora]

I definitely do not have a pool of cash to add to my investments, if I had any cash available which I didn't need for expenses the funds would be invested immediately. The reason why a market crash would be beneficial for me, is because I am a net buyer of stocks and I am likely to be for the next 40+ years. If stock prices are falling whilst intrinsic value (sum of future discounted cash flows) remains constant, then I am better off as I am presented with the opportunity to purchase these cash flows at a cheaper rate than before. Even if I do not have much cash currently, I will be earning income in the future and earning dividend yields on my stock which can be invested. Plus, low stock prices provide the businesses I am invested in with the opportunity to repurchase shares, which means that even if I am not actively purchasing stock myself I am still better off with a lower share price.

This is not my prediction, but the ideal scenario for me would be a stock market that crashes as low as possible, as long as possible whilst not impacting the cash generating abilities of businesses too much. I do believe I am better off with a depressed market than an exuberant market in the long run.

Currently I only hold two stocks, Oceania healthcare and Stellantis. Both are companies which I believe are significantly undervalued and should outperform the SP500 over the next ten years. As I gain experience I should be able to expand the number of shareholdings, but I wont do that at the expense of a worse long term result. I would prefer more volatility in my returns and a higher CAGR, than to diversify amongst worse companies and have less volatility but a lower CAGR.

Please take what I write with a grain of salt. I am 17 years old, so not a lot of experience.

Good for you ValueNZ for starting so young. You should become wealthy if you earn, save and invest more than you spend.
I find this site invaluable for "expert" opinions
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANA-GROUP-LIMITED-6492393/
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/STELLANTIS-N-V-117814143/

[Azz]

get back to discussing markets, instead of [...] a barrage of personal insults & attacks.

Hypocrite. You're one of the worst.

[Azz]

Good for you ValueNZ for starting so young. You should become wealthy if you earn, save and invest more than you spend.

Ditto.........!

[Bjauck]

Deleted….!

[Azz]

This is not my prediction, but the ideal scenario for me would be a stock market that crashes as low as possible, as long as possible whilst not impacting the cash generating abilities of businesses too much. I do believe I am better off with a depressed market than an exuberant market in the long run.

Believe me, you do not want that. A crashed stock market is so much more than "depressed" share prices. It's a rearrangement of capital, often in unexpected and unwanted ways.

[Azz]

Agreed. One of his most concerning posts for me was where he asked...from memory..something like..."who would invest more than 5% of their net wealth in a country with just two products to sell to the world." Hmmm...made me think of my asset allocation a bit.

Lol that was a classic Sailor post!

[RTM]

If he was banned because snowflakes, then said sknowflake's haven't spent enough time in other sections of this forum to really read the vitriol.

Exactly. It's inconceivable how SailorBoy has been banned and Balance and the like continue to spew forth their vitriol. It doesn't make sense.
I don't come to a forum like this for group think. Its great to see people's ideas challenged. Yep, SailorBoy has a certain style, but hey, we aren't marrying him. We're just trying to gain bits of knowledge to help our investing skills.
SailorBoy has contributed plenty in this area from my perspective.

And of course, if you don't like a particular posters style and content, well, its dead easy to pop them on ignore as Snow Leopard did to me this morning. Thats completely appropriate.
But to get the guy banned ? Really disappointing.

[thebusinessman]

Ol' Sailor had a sense of humour but couldn't read the room. I thought many of his points were interesting, possibly correct, and almost all poorly delivered. It doesn't surprise me that he got enough backs up to be voted off the island, I'm not sure I agree that he should have been, though.

[mistaTea]

Ol' Sailor had a sense of humour but couldn't read the room. I thought many of his points were interesting, possibly correct, and almost all poorly delivered. It doesn't surprise me that he got enough backs up to be voted off the island, I'm not sure I agree that he should have been, though.

Yeah nobody is trying to argue that SB was very polite.

But very bad call by the admins banning him I think. He does make very valuable contributions and banning him because of ‘offended’ a few people is absurd.

If you don’t value his contributions and just find his posts hurt your feelings - add him to the ignore and move on. But don’t go whinging to the admins that he is a naughty boy who wasn’t nice to you. Jesus.

And agreed that guys like Unbalanced and Waa_Waa are absolute trolls but don’t seem to be banned for it. How is that fair?

[bull....]

Probably going to get in trouble for this but rump steak is $14.90 a kg at Countdown this week. It's an inflation buster and a ray of sunshine in these dark times. Throw some onions in with it (I chopped up garlic tonight) and boil up some spinach and you've got yourself a highly nutritious meal.

Just because NZ has one of the worst economies in the OECD at the moment, doesn't mean one can't eat well.

i thought owning the sp500 etf you would be a eye fillet type of person ... anyway just adding to the 5 pages of sh..t

[mistaTea]

.. anyway just adding to the 5 pages of sh..t

HA!

Christ I snorted when I read that! Damn good.

[Mafman]

Glad to see the back of SR. Any thread he was involved with quickly became a string of deprecating abuse and insult. Clearly suffering some need to try and humiliate people. Blocking him is not an appropriate response. People like that should not be provided with a platform. Offering some useful insight is completely negated if you are going to offend everybody in doing so. Would you accept racist remarks? Foul language? Insane ramblings? Hate speech? Well then - there are some limits to the extent that you can offend people. Ñot saying that SR is guilty of that, but those posters saying that it is a crying shame for SR to be blocked are simply displaying a very high tolerance for boorishness.

[RTM]

Glad to see the back of SR. Any thread he was involved with quickly became a string of deprecating abuse and insult. Clearly suffering some need to try and humiliate people. Blocking him is not an appropriate response. People like that should not be provided with a platform. Offering some useful insight is completely negated if you are going to offend everybody in doing so. Would you accept racist remarks? Foul language? Insane ramblings? Hate speech? Well then - there are some limits to the extent that you can offend people. Ñot saying that SR is guilty of that, but those posters saying that it is a crying shame for SR to be blocked are simply displaying a very high tolerance for boorishness.
Gosh. Realise how wrong I was. Really important that we only have people on share trader who agree with us, and express themselves in an approved manner. Pretty hard to believe it’s come to this.

[thegreatestben]

Glad to see the back of SR. Any thread he was involved with quickly became a string of deprecating abuse and insult. Clearly suffering some need to try and humiliate people. Blocking him is not an appropriate response. People like that should not be provided with a platform. Offering some useful insight is completely negated if you are going to offend everybody in doing so. Would you accept racist remarks? Foul language? Insane ramblings? Hate speech? Well then - there are some limits to the extent that you can offend people. Ñot saying that SR is guilty of that, but those posters saying that it is a crying shame for SR to be blocked are simply displaying a very high tolerance for boorishness.

I think this is more dangerous than ANYTHING SailorRob ever said on Sharetrader.

"People like that should not be provided with a platform."

Just read that back to yourself and think about the implications of it.

[jonu]

Gosh. Realise how wrong I was. Really important that we only have people on share trader who agree with us, and express themselves in an approved manner. Pretty hard to believe it’s come to this.

The new Puritans are coming for you!

[justakiwi]

Maybe everyone should just chill. For all you know, it is a temporary ban, as many are. I know no more than the rest of you do, but this forum has rules and we all agreed to follow them when we first signed up. SR has breached at least some of those rules. Sometimes a short term ban does wonders for the "addiction" and stress levels. There is zero point speculating or ranting and raving. This is not our forum and we pay nothing for the privilege of using it. If you don't wish to be subjected to rules, best find another forum.

Having said that, I will admit there appears to be major inconsistencies around who gets banned and who doesn't. So maybe direct your anger at those inconsistencies, rather than the rules in general.

[ValueNZ]

ValueNZ, you haven't commented on my post...
I did answer that in a seperate post, just not in direct response.


Yes, in particular the amount of cash that is able to be generated by a business. It is much more predictable than trying to guess which way a price may go in the next week, month or year.

If you assume the absolute worst case scenario in terms of cash generation, and the price you pay for that cash flow is still significantly lower with a margin of safety you more than likely cannot go wrong given a long enough period of time.

The difference lies in how you are informed you are in your predictions, for example if you purchase stock expecting price multiple expansion beyond it's intrinsic value I think that's stupid because I don't think there's a way of assigning a probability of that occurring. Nothing is a given in investing it's just doing the best you can with the information you have available, so like in the scenario you gave with BlackBerry you might lose money despite making a reasonably informed investment decision. There are ways of mitigating these risks though.

[moka]

"Toxic Combo" Of Recent Events To De-Stabilize Markets? | Luke Gromen – Macro Analyst

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJre24DhRR4

Four Destabilizing things have just happened.

1. The price of oil picked up about 20 percent off the lows
2. You had the bank of Japan widen out their yield curve control on JGBS
3. You had the U.S get downgraded
4. The U.S treasury came out and updated their borrowing estimates. They're going to borrow one almost 1.9 trillion dollars in the back half of this year.

When you put all of these things together they are a very toxic combination.

Last year Luke said that the FED would be forced to resume liquidity injections by the end of third quarter 2022 and that was wrong because Treasury did it. FED kept tightening, Treasury loosened.

Yellen offset more than offset QT by running down the Treasury General Account in the fourth quarter of last year, which bought time for the system e.g. the U.S banking system strains in March.

The FED got a great PR you know this BTFP is not QE. Great they're growing their balance sheet again. They are effectively doing a soft form of yield curve control by writing up the value that they will lend against treasuries relative to the market. So, the FED did get involved there.

[Azz]

I did answer that in a seperate post, just not in direct response.



The difference lies in how you are informed you are in your predictions, for example if you purchase stock expecting price multiple expansion beyond it's intrinsic value I think that's stupid because I don't think there's a way of assigning a probability of that occurring. Nothing is a given in investing it's just doing the best you can with the information you have available, so like in the scenario you gave with BlackBerry you might lose money despite making a reasonably informed investment decision. There are ways of mitigating these risks though.

Thanks for answering. Good answer.

[moka]

"Toxic Combo" Of Recent Events To De-Stabilize Markets? | Luke Gromen – Macro Analyst
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJre24DhRR4

11:28 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJre24DhRR4&t=688s) The mismatch between fiscal and monetary policies.

Fiscal policy - US government saying we have these geopolitical goals or imperatives in Europe with Russia, we need to move away from China, we need to reshore our productive capacity, we cannot produce shells to support an industrial war with a major power because our industrial base has been so hollowed out over the last 25 years. The DOD is like hey great do it. DOD is saying we can't fight a war, we're borrowing money from China to build weapons made in China.

Monetary policy - the Fed's saying I need low inflation.
Treasury is saying I need the strong dollar to try to place this paper.

You can have one of two things you can have a strong dollar, low inflation low rates or you can pursue the geopolitical policies that America is trying to pursue, namely the United States will need to buy components from China to build the weapons to encircle China.

The Fed and Treasury are trying to preserve the strong dollar for the primacy of the bond market. It's no longer in the interest of America.

If we have a strong dollar, if we have low inflation then the bond market has to get killed on a real basis an inflation-adjusted terms because what has to happen is we run 10, 12, 15, percent of GDP deficits.

Will Powell keep raising rates and keep money tight and force the US government to make 40 to 60 percent cuts now permanently to defence and entitlements because those are the only two things you can cut other than Treasury spending to stop those deficits. Nothing else matters, it's entitlements, interest, defence in that order. So Powell do you think your legacy will be helped by cutting entitlements and by cutting defence tomorrow permanently by 40 to 60 percent which is what Stan Druckenmiller estimated needed to be cut in his presentation out at USC a few months ago.

For the last 40 years bondholders and Wall Street and China won, and Washington DC, that's who got richer, and the working class in the middle-class America got poorer.

We need to decide do we want to maintain the real value of our bonds, or do we want to actually compete.
If they decide they want to compete it's going to be wildly inflationary, if you own a lot of bonds you're going to go from eating steak to eating dog food.

[Rawz]

Everyone load up on debt

[thegreatestben]

Way ahead of you Rawz :laugh:

[Azz]

Everyone load up on debt

It's getting confusing. [Stock market-wise,] US doesn't look so bad; NZ looks like a disaster zone.

[alokdhir]

After latest increase ASB Margin Lending rate is 9.35% ...wow ...used to be 4.95%

To utilise that to buy shares ...one need to think at least 15% yearly return to make it worthwhile . Cant be risky asset as dont want wild gyrations lest margin calls

When it looks ludicrous to do it ...most likely is the best time to do it :D

[Azz]

When it looks ludicrous to do it ...most likely is the best time to do it :D

lol...........

[kiora]

Yep
Portfolio approaching ATH again
Jinxing it ?

[alokdhir]

Yep
Portfolio approaching ATH again
Jinxing it ?

I believe U have two stocks portfolio ...IFT / FPH !! Is it ??

[kiora]

Yep + some FUM

[alokdhir]

Yep + some FUM

If I remember correctly ...U like MFT and wanted it in your portfolio ....Dont u think it's good time to switch some winners into it ? Just a thought ...I know u are very learned and have done very very well already

[kiora]

Not for my personal portfolio but adding MFT to a trust investment, drip feeding 3x over next 6 months

[alokdhir]

Not for my personal portfolio but adding MFT to a trust investment, drip feeding 3x over next 6 months

Like I thought ...U are already on it ...:t_up:

[kiora]

Yes MFT for long term portfolio. In my view bright horizon, not necessarily within the next year but 5-10 yr +
Management succession gets a big tick from me

[Leemsip]

Yes MFT for long term portfolio. In my view bright horizon, not necessarily within the next year but 5-10 yr +
Management succession gets a big tick from me

Agree with that. I love the way you are just holding the super high quality stocks. I tend to (against my will) buy a lot of down on their luck but will turn around stocks. Do ok with this strategy but involves a lot more focus and analysis time..... and a bit of luck.

[kiora]

Thanks Leemsip. The way I look at it is not buying the shares but buying the company.
What company would I like to own for the long term?
Hence 80% portfolio IFT,20 % FPH
I do have the odd flutter on top. Usually the fluttering just reinforces that fluttering is crap for me.

[Leemsip]

Thanks Leemsip. The way I look at it is not buying the shares but buying the company.
What company would I like to own for the long term?
Hence 80% portfolio IFT,20 % FPH
I do have the odd flutter on top. Usually the fluttering just reinforces that fluttering is crap for me.

Recession coming so hopefully get to splash a big % of my cash (currently getting 5% in a TD) into the top quality - set and forget - companies at a discount.... Hmmmm live and hope eh

[Swala]

I think we can waste a lot of time waiting to get top companies at a discount. If you are a long term investor just buy and forget.

Disc. IFT my biggest holding.

[Leemsip]

Good advice guys. Thanks

[Daytr]

Recession coming so hopefully get to splash a big % of my cash (currently getting 5% in a TD) into the top quality - set and forget - companies at a discount.... Hmmmm live and hope eh

I think having a war chest of cash available at the moment is smart especially when you can get 5% on TD. As I have mentioned before and criticised for 🙄, I switched my Kiwisaver to cash 6 months or so ago and it's worked out well.

I am also looking to free up some more cash to be on standby if overall stocks go where I think they will.

[alokdhir]

Why US markets did not have any capitulation this time when Bull and many others were waiting for S&P 2800 ?

Main reason being all thought its coming so all cashed up and had to chase stocks up from 3500 to 3800 levels !!

Markets only rewards 20% not majority views most of the time ...

MFT has already sounded recession numbers in its trading update and market has already reacted to it ...

Now more chance it will bounce upwards on Nov results then more downwards

Yes if looking for last dominos like retail to fall then can wait few more months to buy HLG / TRA / KMD / WHS types

[thegreatestben]

NZX50 change within first 100 days of an election for the past 30 years.
Looks like markets have done better seeing labour coming rather than going.



Election
Date
Winner
NZX 50 change in first 100 days


1990
October 27
National
-1.2%


1993
November 6
Labour
5.9%


1996
October 12
National
3.2%


1999
November 27
Labour
1.6%


2002
November 27
Labour
0.2%


2005
September 17
Labour
8.5%


2008
November 8
National
-1.1%


2011
November 26
National
6.2%


2014
September 20
National
-10.2%


2017
September 23
Labour
11.5%


2020
October 17
Labour
1.1%

[alokdhir]

NZX50 change within first 100 days of an election for the past 30 years.
Looks like markets have done better seeing labour coming rather than going.



Election
Date
Winner
NZX 50 change in first 100 days


1990
October 27
National
-1.2%


1993
November 6
Labour
5.9%


1996
October 12
National
3.2%


1999
November 27
Labour
1.6%


2002
November 27
National
0.2%


2005
September 17
Labour
8.5%


2008
November 8
National
-1.1%


2011
November 26
National
6.2%


2014
September 20
National
-10.2%


2017
September 23
Labour
11.5%


2020
October 17
Labour
1.1%




I agree that fear / uncertainty of election results is main reason why markets lack lustre at the moment or in limbo ...

After Oct it can come alive barring some very bad outcomes and real economy badly faltering ...small chance of that happening ...imo

[winner69]

I agree that fear / uncertainty of election results is main reason why markets lack lustre at the moment or in limbo ...

After Oct it can come alive barring some very bad outcomes and real economy badly faltering ...small chance of that happening ...imo

.........and the 'blue chips' will take off .....quality wins out .....and Kingfish will be happy

[Daytr]

NZX50 change within first 100 days of an election for the past 30 years.
Looks like markets have done better seeing labour coming rather than going.



Election
Date
Winner
NZX 50 change in first 100 days


1990
October 27
National
-1.2%


1993
November 6
Labour
5.9%


1996
October 12
National
3.2%


1999
November 27
Labour
1.6%


2002
November 27
Labour
0.2%


2005
September 17
Labour
8.5%


2008
November 8
National
-1.1%


2011
November 26
National
6.2%


2014
September 20
National
-10.2%


2017
September 23
Labour
11.5%


2020
October 17
Labour
1.1%



I was at a broker presentation 6 months ago and they had analyzed markets during terms of Labour & National Governments and the NZ market had out performed under Labour Governments historically.
There were gasps from the grey heads in the room who couldn't believe what they had just heard.

[Daytr]

Why US markets did not have any capitulation this time when Bull and many others were waiting for S&P 2800 ?

Main reason being all thought its coming so all cashed up and had to chase stocks up from 3500 to 3800 levels !!

Markets only rewards 20% not majority views most of the time ...

MFT has already sounded recession numbers in its trading update and market has already reacted to it ...

Now more chance it will bounce upwards on Nov results then more downwards

Yes if looking for last dominos like retail to fall then can wait few more months to buy HLG / TRA / KMD / WHS types

Beware October. 1929, 1987 & 2008.
History doesn't always repeat itself of course but I don't think what's going on in China has been priced into global markets.

At 5% plus return on TD I'm not losing much by sitting and watching and perhaps seeing an opportunity. That's not to say I'm all cash, I'm not but I have lightened up my equities exposure considerably and might offload more & sit back.

[kiora]

Beware October. 1929, 1987 & 2008.
History doesn't always repeat itself of course but I don't think what's going on in China has been priced into global markets.

At 5% plus return on TD I'm not losing much by sitting and watching and perhaps seeing an opportunity. That's not to say I'm all cash, I'm not but I have lightened up my equities exposure considerably and might offload more & sit back.

And your capitol is eroding at ......
https://www.google.com/search?q=nz+inflation+rate+2023&rlz=1C1CHZN_enNZ1004NZ1005&oq=NZ+INFLATION+RATE&aqs=chrome.1.0i67i650j0i512l9.10120j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[kiora]

How many companies worry about an election?

[kiora]

Neither are mine but real life

The tale of 2 amateur investors over 18 years
1) "investing" in the next best thing: Aus miners, oilers, cannabis Co
Now has way less capitol than they originally started with
2) "investing" in long term growth Co
Now nearly 4.2 X invested capital even though only compounding at 8.5% over the 18 years

The last 4 years has seen little capital growth and has had 15 % held in cash that has also held back returns

[ronaldson]

NZX50 change within first 100 days of an election for the past 30 years.
Looks like markets have done better seeing labour coming rather than going.



Election
Date
Winner
NZX 50 change in first 100 days


1990
October 27
National
-1.2%


1993
November 6
Labour
5.9%


1996
October 12
National
3.2%


1999
November 27
Labour
1.6%


2002
November 27
Labour
0.2%


2005
September 17
Labour
8.5%


2008
November 8
National
-1.1%


2011
November 26
National
6.2%


2014
September 20
National
-10.2%


2017
September 23
Labour
11.5%


2020
October 17
Labour
1.1%



Very interesting research. Well done.

There are several unusually large market movements in these calculations given the restricted timeframe involved, which suggest a sort of "relief" rally when sharply positive (at least four occasions) and the reverse when sharply negative (only once), reflecting the commercial/financial/investor sectors general reception of the outcome and perhaps the extinction of the risk of a contrary result.

I had forgotten Winston's decision to anoint Labour in 2017 had been so well received by the market!

If this occasion results in a National/ACT success then I suggest a market rally will be positive unless the opening of the books reveals more economic devastation than reasonably anticipated.

[dobby41]

How many companies worry about an election?

Probably only the ones that don't get ahead as they are worrying about making the most of any given situation.
Certainly I don't think listed companies worry.

[troyvdh]

My opinion the Nats will win because they are going to spend 500M on potholes..im obviously joking...But gee who do you vote for...For me the calibre ....of politicians....is well sad.

[Daytr]

And your capitol is eroding at ......
https://www.google.com/search?q=nz+inflation+rate+2023&rlz=1C1CHZN_enNZ1004NZ1005&oq=NZ+INFLATION+RATE&aqs=chrome.1.0i67i650j0i512l9.10120j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Well I have received 5% + in that time and the NZX is negative by around 4% in the same period, so it has been a far better bet.

I won't stay in cash for long but when you do it can offer opportunities. Not saying it's for everyone, but I wish I had been in cash in 2008 & 2020 as would have made a fortune on both occasions. And I'm not losing anything with stocks overall down whilst getting 5% plus in cash short term.

[ronaldson]

Yes, even the Jarden $NZ Call Account pays 4% up to $15k, 4.3% up to $50k, 4.85% up to $200k and 5% up to $1m. So you can have your cash on standby and pull the trigger anytime. Interest is higher if you have more than that.

Admittedly these rates are subject to tax, and less than the current rate of inflation, but it's tolerable and as Daytr says, it can offer opportunities. The alternative can be holding stocks that are reflecting market decline! I wonder how cash would do if it were a portfolio entered in the sharetrader competition for the 2023 year? Beating a lot of portfolio picks at last update, and will be beating even more at the next. That should induce some sober contemplation in my opinion.

[kiora]

How often do investors time the market right? 0,20%,50%,80% take your pick
Easier to not try & time the market IMO

"Shares or cash: What you need to know"
https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/investing-success/shares-or-cash-what-you-need-to-know
"Compared with cash, shares have a far stronger long-term track record when measured against inflation. As the table below highlights, the average inflation-adjusted annual returns for shares stretching back more than 120 years is more than 5%, whereas for cash it's only around 1%."
https://www.google.com/search?q=returns+on+cash+versus+shares&sca_esv=561882886&rlz=1C1CHZN_enNZ1004NZ1005&ei=ranxZLGXJIuw2roP3NGc-Aw&ved=0ahUKEwjxodTah4mBAxULmFYBHdwoB88Q4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=returns+on+cash+versus+shares&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHXJldHVybnMgb24gY2FzaCB2 ZXJzdXMgc2hhcmVzMggQABiJBRiiBDIFEAAYogQyBRAAGKIESM EgUMkHWMkHcAF4AZABAJgB7wKgAe8CqgEDMy0xuAEDyAEA-AEBwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA-IDBBgAIEHiAwUSATEgQIgGAZAGCA&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

[moka]

"Toxic Combo" Of Recent Events To De-Stabilize Markets? | Luke Gromen – Macro Analyst

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJre24DhRR4

10:49: U.S Shale is starting to roll over and it's going to roll over in the back half of this year and so the FED and White House they can play all these games they want they can't print oil and so now oil prices are starting to rise on them.

Do what's best for America in the long run rather than what's good for Bonds and Wall Street in the short run. This is going to play out over the next couple years.

We've got the spending from the Inflation Reduction Act that's now finally coming into the mix.
At the same time they want to get re-elected. They don't want to be going into the voter booth with inflation resurging.

There just seems to be so many cross currents here I don't really see anybody can have their cake and eat it too no matter which policy they pursue.

19:52 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJre24DhRR4&t=1192s) Sovereign Debt Crisis

Get busy defaulting or get busy inflating.
In the first half of the U.S government's fiscal year i.e. 4Q22 to 1Q23, after six months of tightening before the effects of those tightening has really been felt U.S true interest expense entitlement and Treasury spending was above treasury receipts.

The U.S government was already in a position where the U.S government couldn't afford what's effectively its true interest expense out of tax receipts.

The US government can't make its interest payments without the FED printing the money.
April May Treasury receipts were down 20% through May. It's only been I think three other times in the last 20 30 last 40 years they've been down 20%.

[Azz]

As I have mentioned before and criticised for 🙄, I switched my Kiwisaver to cash 6 months or so ago and it's worked out well.

And in those six months you missed out on a 15% rise in the S&P and a 25% rise in the Nasdaq. You truly are a genius.

[Daytr]

And in those six months you missed out on a 15% rise in the S&P and a 25% rise in the Nasdaq. You truly are a genius.

No that's quite incorrect as I am referring only to my NZ component of my portfolio I.e Kiwi Saver as I have stated on multipleoccasions. .

I have also been trading US markets outside of that and done very well in recent times being short US indices, but switch to long in the last week or so. I day trade international markets I.e indices but generally invest in NZ & Aussie markets so they are a very different play.

[Azz]

No that's quite incorrect as I am referring only to my NZ component of my portfolio I.e Kiwi Saver as I have stated on multipleoccasions. .

I have also been trading US markets outside of that and done very well in recent times being short US indices, but switch to long in the last week or so. I day trade international markets I.e indices but generally invest in NZ & Aussie markets so they are a very different play.

I'm pretty sure that KiwiSaver fund managers have heard of the S&P and the Nasdaq.

[Daytr]

How often do investors time the market right? 0,20%,50%,80% take your pick
Easier to not try & time the market IMO

"Shares or cash: What you need to know"
https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/investing-success/shares-or-cash-what-you-need-to-know
"Compared with cash, shares have a far stronger long-term track record when measured against inflation. As the table below highlights, the average inflation-adjusted annual returns for shares stretching back more than 120 years is more than 5%, whereas for cash it's only around 1%."
https://www.google.com/search?q=returns+on+cash+versus+shares&sca_esv=561882886&rlz=1C1CHZN_enNZ1004NZ1005&ei=ranxZLGXJIuw2roP3NGc-Aw&ved=0ahUKEwjxodTah4mBAxULmFYBHdwoB88Q4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=returns+on+cash+versus+shares&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHXJldHVybnMgb24gY2FzaCB2 ZXJzdXMgc2hhcmVzMggQABiJBRiiBDIFEAAYogQyBRAAGKIESM EgUMkHWMkHcAF4AZABAJgB7wKgAe8CqgEDMy0xuAEDyAEA-AEBwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA-IDBBgAIEHiAwUSATEgQIgGAZAGCA&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

Yep it can be difficult to time as you say that's why it's not for everyone. And it's not something I revert to cash on a regular basis but there are times that I think it makes sense to increase cash available.

The markets have been on a stellar run for over 10 years with only really one short sharp hiccup in 2020. But in that time global interest rates have been super low and China dragged the world out of the GFC with something like the industrial revolution compacted into 20 years. Neither of those things are the same anymore and yet the markets haven't adjusted accordingly.

I'm not saying I'm right but it's my view that we have a reasonable correction to come and I think China could be the tipping point. I expect to see markets off another 10 - 15% maybe more than they are now in the near term.

If I'm wrong I have lost very little in opportunity cost but if I'm right it will be a great opportunity.

[Daytr]

I'm pretty sure that KiwiSaver fund managers have heard of the S&P and the Nasdaq.

Really I didn't know that... 🙄
As I already have large US exposure I prefer to keep my KiwiSaver domesticated.
It's called spreading risk or a diversified portfolio. Perhaps you have heard of that...

[Azz]

Really I didn't know that... 🙄
As I already have large US exposure I prefer to keep my KiwiSaver domesticated.
It's called spreading risk or a diversified portfolio. Perhaps you have heard of that...

It's called missing out on a 15% rise in the S&P and a 25% rise in the Nasdaq.

[Daytr]

It's called missing out on a 15% rise in the S&P and a 25% rise in the Nasdaq.
Perhaps you look after your portfolio & I will look after mine.

[Azz]

Perhaps you look after your portfolio & I will look after mine.

Perhaps you shouldn't make false claims:

"I switched my Kiwisaver to cash 6 months or so ago and it's worked out well."

[Daytr]

Perhaps you shouldn't make false claims:

"I switched my Kiwisaver to cash 6 months or so ago and it's worked out well."


OK SailorRob Minime.

[Azz]

I day trade international markets

Really? When do you do this? Because the time stamps for your posts to this website are all over the place: morning and afternoon and evening, but not overnight. When do you sleep? It looks to me that you sleep like most of us: overnight; and not like that of an "international day trader".

[Daytr]

Really? When do you do this? Because the time stamps for your posts to this website are all over the place: morning and afternoon and evening, but not overnight. When do you sleep? It looks to me that you sleep like most of us: overnight; and not like that of an "international day trader".

It's a thing called futures, perhaps you have heard of those also, the US markets trade 23 hours a day. I use stops & take profit points etc.
Perhaps you are also aware of these basic risk management tools as well?

Now go away & mind your own business.
You are making a fool of yourself.

[kiora]

Sometimes "investors" would be better off buying the indices rather than taking up a full time job trading stocks?

https://www.google.com/search?q=real+returns+of+s%26p+5+over+last+10+year s&sca_esv=561948633&rlz=1C1CHZN_enNZ1004NZ1005&ei=5ATyZM6pCPrc2roP2NOf4AU&ved=0ahUKEwjOq4jZ3omBAxV6rlYBHdjpB1wQ4dUDCA8&oq=real+returns+of+s%26p+5+over+last+10+years&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiKHJlYWwgcmV0dXJucyBvZiBz JnAgNSBvdmVyIGxhc3QgMTAgeWVhcnNIAFAAWABwAHgBkAEAmA EAoAEAqgEAuAEMyAEA4gMEGAAgQQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

Or sometimes just tell yourself its your hobby?

I'm including me in that :)

[Daytr]

Sometimes "investors" would be better off buying the indices rather than taking up a full time job trading stocks?

https://www.google.com/search?q=real+returns+of+s%26p+5+over+last+10+year s&sca_esv=561948633&rlz=1C1CHZN_enNZ1004NZ1005&ei=5ATyZM6pCPrc2roP2NOf4AU&ved=0ahUKEwjOq4jZ3omBAxV6rlYBHdjpB1wQ4dUDCA8&oq=real+returns+of+s%26p+5+over+last+10+years&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiKHJlYWwgcmV0dXJucyBvZiBz JnAgNSBvdmVyIGxhc3QgMTAgeWVhcnNIAFAAWABwAHgBkAEAmA EAoAEAqgEAuAEMyAEA4gMEGAAgQQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

Or sometimes just tell yourself its your hobby?

I'm including me in that :)

People should do what suits themselves not what the likes of Azz thinks you should do.
Do what Azz does & you might end up like Azz. 😅

I did the whole stare at a screen thing when I first got out of banking but I learnt it's not my cup of tea and I didn't trade better for it, probably worse. Stops & take profits are tools to be used so I use them.
This way I have a great life with time to run a business and still plenty of down time during the day to have fun.
If there is a very big announcement due I may set an alarm for it, but that's pretty rare.

[iceman]

No that's quite incorrect as I am referring only to my NZ component of my portfolio I.e Kiwi Saver as I have stated on multipleoccasions. .

I have also been trading US markets outside of that and done very well in recent times being short US indices, but switch to long in the last week or so. I day trade international markets I.e indices but generally invest in NZ & Aussie markets so they are a very different play.

If you’re Kiwisaver is anything like most of us, it will be heavily weighted to the US equity market. If you’ve been sitting in cash rather than US markets in the last 6-12 months, you’ve missed out a lot

P.s. just read your post saying your KS has a domestic focus. So my above comments are superseded. Odd KS composition !

[Daytr]

If you’re Kiwisaver is anything like most of us, it will be heavily weighted to the US equity market. If you’ve been sitting in cash rather than US markets in the last 6-12 months, you’ve missed out a lot

P.s. just read your post saying your KS has a domestic focus. So my above comments are superseded. Odd KS composition !

I haven't missed out on anything. My main portfolio is internationally based, primarily US & Australia.

My KS has the option of domestic or international equities. As it's my retirement I choose to keep it relatively conservative compared to my trading portfolio and I prefer not to have an FX exposure for my retirement portfolio, I have enough of that in my trading portfolio.

So for the umpteenth time my comparison is TD vs the NZX50 which has been a good move in the last six months. There are always other things you can invest in or better opportunities in hindsight but the point is moot as they are not within my investment criteria for my retirement savings.

[Panda-NZ-]

I'm with superlife and they offer access to nearly all of the smartshares ETF's. Trouble is they are all currency unhedged.

Though they don't have the newest S&P one yet (I'm quite keen on that given where the NZD is).

https://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds/us-shares/us-500-hedged

[justakiwi]

I have no idea what age bracket you are in, but I can understand this strategy if you are approaching retirement age. If not though, I tend to agree that it is an odd choice for a retirement fund.


I haven't missed out on anything. My main portfolio is internationally based, primarily US & Australia.

My KS has the option of domestic or international equities. As it's my retirement I choose to keep it relatively conservative compared to my trading portfolio and I prefer not to have an FX exposure for my retirement portfolio, I have enough of that in my trading portfolio.

So for the umpteenth time my comparison is TD vs the NZX50 which has been a good move in the last six months. There are always other things you can invest in or better opportunities in hindsight but the point is moot as they are not within my investment criteria for my retirement savings.

[Daytr]

I have no idea what age bracket you are in, but I can understand this strategy if you are approaching retirement age. If not though, I tend to agree that it is an odd choice for a retirement fund.

It's not a permanent choice it's a timing thing which is not for everyone as I said. For the best part of 10 years prior my KS was all equities, the last 6 months TD & my KS will be flicked back to equities when I think the timing is right again.

[alokdhir]

As I had mentioned before while quoting Mark Lister of Craigs fame ...that in one month equities can give 10% return when suddenly sentiment / outlook change ...which in NZX terms can be elections conclusion satisfactorily or market getting sure next move in rates is down and not up etc ....as no one can pin point that turning point ...its always advisable to be invested wisely and not try to time the markets ....that was the advise of Mark Lister / Mary Holm and so many experts ...but still people try their luck ...its more luck based then knowledge at play ...imo

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-mark-lister-will-we-see-a-post-election-sharemarket-rally/3KPSQ2ZOBVF3LOUKLOZ2RC5YVE/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2023-mark-lister-will-we-see-a-post-election-sharemarket-rally/3KPSQ2ZOBVF3LOUKLOZ2RC5YVE/)

[Daytr]

As I had mentioned before while quoting Mark Lister of Craigs fame ...that in one month equities can give 10% return when suddenly sentiment / outlook change ...which in NZX terms can be elections conclusion satisfactorily or market getting sure next move in rates is down and not up etc ....as no one can pin point that turning point ...its always advisable to be invested wisely and not try to time the markets ....that was the advise of Mark Lister / Mary Holm and so many experts ...but still people try their luck ...its more luck based then knowledge at play ...imo

Yeah all the fund managers say that as they get paid to manage your portfolio mot to manage cash. Which begs the question what are you paying them for. Some are better than others no doubt.
And for most people I think that's reasonable advice & as I said its not for everyone.
But have you ever had a fund manager say it's a good time sell up or lighten your equities exposure? Why is that? Because they are benchmarked against the market. So if the market drops by 20% they can just point to the market. The last time I did this cash thing the NZX dropped around 10% & I went back into equities & gained 11% in six month on my KS, whereas if I hadn't my KS would likey have been negative after fees and now it would be down again as the NX50 is down since that switch.

Iys not luck if it's a deliberate decision & there are signals in the market that could bring about a decent correction.
2020 was pretty obvious once the pandemic started to take hold in Europe. Unfortunately I only rode half the correction as I didn't anticipate it dropping 40%.
As I say, I'm not saying I'm right its just my view & I am losing very little if any in opportunity cost & I am still Day Trading the volatility in the US markets, but that's my trading portfolio not my investment portfolio.

One thing I have learnt the hard way over the years, is that when opportunity knocks, be in the position to take advantage of it.

[Panda-NZ-]

When there's a signficant correction leveraged ETF's seem attractive (like TQQQ). I wish I learned about them before the pandemic though.

It also allows you to take more risk with general unleveraged ETFs. It matters much less if you're down 40% when you have the opportunity to sell and buy one of the leveraged ETF's instead.

[Daytr]

When there's a signficant correction leveraged ETF's seem attractive (like TQQQ). I wish I learned about them before the pandemic though.

It also allows you to take more risk with general unleveraged ETFs. It matters much less if you're down 40% when you have the opportunity to sell and buy one of the leveraged ETF's instead.

Wow and you aren't the only one to say yhat they didn't know about or understand ETFs on here until quite recently.

ETFs have been around for 30 years but really became prevalent in the last 20 years or so along with CFDs of course which is what I trade.

[Panda-NZ-]

I know what ETF's are... just wasn't aware of the existence of leveraged ETF's (x2 or x3 the index).

[Daytr]

I know what ETF's are... just wasn't aware of the existence of leveraged ETF's (x2 or x3 the index).

Right. The leverage has been around a long time as well.

[winner69]

More money is lost looking for good stocks than is made in finding them …old saying

[Daytr]

More money is lost looking for good stocks than is made in finding them …old saying

Gold as well!

[winner69]

Gold as well!

Better not post on NTL thread then eh :scared::):mad ;:;)

[ValueNZ]

Iys not luck if it's a deliberate decision & there are signals in the market that could bring about a decent correction.
2020 was pretty obvious once the pandemic started to take hold in Europe. Unfortunately I only rode half the correction as I didn't anticipate it dropping 40%.
As I say, I'm not saying I'm right its just my view & I am losing very little if any in opportunity cost & I am still Day Trading the volatility in the US markets, but that's my trading portfolio not my investment portfolio.
Can't be luck if it's a deliberate decision? Pretty sure the blokes at the pokies make a deliberate decision to use the slot machine and will occasionally win a bit of cash.

Just like gambling, timing markets like you did will occasionally pay off. Doesn't mean the wins are statistically significant though, so you don't have the ability to time markets consistently. However if you did I'm sure you'd be one of the richest people in the world quite quickly