Black Monday

[ValueNZ]

If I get into an accident I will be looked after by the products of a free market, administered by a shambolic system that is horribly inefficient but will do the job. I will have contributed to the service I get many times over.

Yes we don't want a police state which is what your commie system always leads to.

Did that post describe you and your attitudes perfectly?
In particular the products of a free market system from other countries, from which we benefit from. Almost no one seems to know that the majority of healthcare innovations comes from the United States, and yet most people will complain that the US doesn't have a public healthcare system. That's not to say I think the US healthcare system is perfect, I'd abolish the FDA if it were my choice.

As a type one diabetic I am grateful for the innovations in glucose monitors and insulin pumps which have mostly came from US companies.

[ValueNZ]

The entire point of the market you fool isn't to isolate yourself from the world.
Yep quite the opposite. In only a communist/socialist society or through government intervention, can you do nothing and receive something from the fruits of others labour.

[Panda-NZ-]

In particular the products of a free market system from other countries, from which we benefit from. Almost no one seems to know that the majority of healthcare innovations comes from the United States, and yet most people will complain that the US doesn't have a public healthcare system. That's not to say I think the US healthcare system is perfect, I'd abolish the FDA if it were my choice.

Still, half of funding comes from the US taxpayer.

Given that they spend twice per capita then their public spending on healthcare is probably equivalent to ours (10% of GDP) with the insurance red tape industry making up the rest. The results of this huge investment = life expectancy being low for an advanced country.

[Panda-NZ-]

Yep quite the opposite. In only a communist/socialist society or through government intervention, can you do nothing and receive something from the fruits of others labour.

The US redistributes more than we do. They have a cgt, dividend tax and estate tax, plus local taxes (incl. on property) with minimal to no sales tax..

So yeah let's follow the US but without the enormous waste & spend it on the voters instead.

[bull....]

guess some of the socialist tranny's on this site will be disappointed with winston toilet policy ...

[777]

The US redistributes more than we do. they have a cgt, dividend tax and estate tax. Plus local taxes (incl. on property) with minimal to no sales tax.

So yeah let's follow the US but without the enormous waste & spend it on the voters instead.

But really you have not looked at the IRS site.

[Daytr]

You'd be surprised where these sniveling commies lurk. Interst.co.nz has a huge pile of them too. Sickening.

Their thinking can be summed up in a single sentence: Hate the man who is better off than you are.Never under any circumstances admit that his success may be due to his own efforts, to the productive contribution he has made to the whole community.

Always attribute his success to the exploitation, the cheating, the more or less open robbery of others.Never under any circumstances admit that your own failure may be owing to your own weakness, or that the failure of anyone else may be due to his own defects — his laziness, incompetence, improvidence or stupidity.

Never believe in the honesty or disinterestedness of anyone who disagrees with you.This basic hatred is the heart of the Daytra typesThis is their animating force.You can throw away the technical jargon, the “scientific” analysis, and millions of pretentious words, and you still have the core: The implacable hatred and envy that are the raison d’etre for all the rest.

I could say this post takes the cake, but the next one I will reply on actually usurps the rubbish above.

Commies! Really? haha
I don't know about you, but I don't know any communists.
The hate and envy, give me a break. They only thing I dislike on here is certain posters denigrating others from their small little world with no experience in what they are writing about. The next post will spell this out in much more detail.
Calling a swing voter a Commie is the equivalent of calling a National voter a NAZI, not even an ACT voter but someone from the center right.
It is not only ludicrous but just nasty and yet you suggest I hate others for succeeding. I have worked in a world where you are paid purely on your success. You are fired if you aren't successful. So please give me a break with your fear mongering propaganda.
It reeks of desperation.

Just look at what you wrote here. Who is the one full of hate? Some pretty ugly stuff here and with no foundation I might add.
But its water off a ducks back to me as it is as rediculous as it is manufactured BS.

"Always attribute his success to the exploitation, the cheating, the more or less open robbery of others. Never under any circumstances admit that your own failure may be owing to your own weakness, or that the failure of anyone else may be due to his own defects — his laziness, incompetence, improvidence or stupidity."

[Azz]

Markets looking very shaky. Black Monday ahead?

Bitcoin was a bang-on leading indicator the last crash, and it is looking shaky too.

Mr Burry betting BIG on a crash (as I posted). Most doomsayers I ignore, but his bets are based on mega-data analysis; he's a genius. But even a genius can be wrong - often with timing the event or over-predicting the severity of the event.

[Azz]

You're on fire! Wonderful insights, crap on the successful while blaming them for your own lack of success, and more, demand a share of their success to compensate for your lack of success! Unbelievable.

And on a capital markets share trading and investments website? Unbelievable that these people exist, let alone take the time (a lot of time for some of them) to tell us we are all greedy capitalists and deserve to be be taken down by the socialistic regimes who demand a share of our success, while criticising and condemning it!

Incredible hypocrisy, but it happens, it is happening, truely unbelievable.

"a lot of time for some of them"

I can't fathom the reasoning behind it lol !

[Daytr]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Daytr https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=1016577#post1016577)
Such an A-typical response from you.
You maybe surprised that I am not at your beck and call.
You are comparing consumption to GDP in an inflationary & recessionary environment. Can't you see what this indicates?

Recessionary? You must be bloody kidding. Some technical case where a propellor head calculates inflation slightly wrong puts us in a recession? Mate get out and about.

Many younger people say under 35 - 40 have never experienced a recession, so it will be interesting to see if there is overconfidence in the economy.

I will give you one of my latest calls and that was stocks were expensive & I have been shorting the US stock indices.
I also went long gold & picked up more over the same time, however that is down as the USD has rallied, but not nearly as much as US equities. And I will now hold unless it breaks down.

You're not a teenage girl, get off the trading app on your phone and do some real investing. (previously you have told us you trade the global markets from your cellphone while trying to run a business)

Shorting US equities must be the stupidest thing you've done for a while! Mateeee you must be bleeding some serious red.

I also converted all my super to cash about 8 months ago which has proven to be by far the right move.

Going to cash 8 Months ago was by far the right move? WTF are you insane?

So like all of us we get it wrong, we get it right.

I have made big calls for a living and published those views daily to a wide audience.

So bloody what? What does this prove? Why were you working for someone else publishing 'big calls' when you could get rich for yourself off these big calls? This is bloody ridiculous. Daily big calls... for gods sake man.


I don't think it's a big call to say the economy is NOT running hot. It's obvious to anyone who has a clue.

Answered your own statement there.

Real world vs the world of a day trader. [QUOTE]





Now this post takes the cake, the soufflé in fact the entire desert cart.
I don't know what you have been smoking but it must be some pretty heavy-duty stuff.

1) Inflaton is not how a recession is measured, it can contribute to a recession, but a recession is declared when there have been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP just like the last two quarters reported which announced the country is in recession. It might be what is called a technical recession, but none the less saying the country isn't in recession let alone "running hot" is a falsehood.

2) My reference to inflation was in your response to you saying consumer spending is high versus GDP as if that is an indication how hot the economy is. Well with consumer spending being inflated by 7% p.a. without any additional consumption, just cost increase against a stalled or negative GDP is the real reflection of that ratio. So people are spending more to get the same or perhaps even less in goods and services.
With half the mortgage market still yet to roll onto higher interest rates, billions more is about to be sucked out of the economy over the next 12 months let alone an estimated $5Bln in export revenue being wiped out from dairy. These numbers don't include the mulitplier effect on the economy as belts are tightened and spending reduces dramatically. So we may be in a 'technical recession' its soon to become a full blown recession.

3) Yes I have been shorting US stocks via indicies over the last month or so. And this is where the what planet are you on comes in.
To claim I must be on a big loser when day after day all the indicies are down. The best performer is down about 3.5% in the last month, the worst is down around 14%. So how on earth would you conclude I must be losing money being short US stocks? You just shoot from the hip with mud and hope it sticks. Meanwhile to anyone & I mean anyone that listens to the news or follows stocks would see how stupid these comments are.

4) Yes I swapped my Kiwi Saver from Equities to cash earlier in the year when the NZX50 was around 12100 & have made a steady 3 - 5% since. So yes, the right move by some margin. Again, that ganja you're smoking must be good!

You have run your mouth off a few times now, only to make a fool of yourself and at the same time insult others.
I am all for constructive healthy interactions but will not sit by and let someone just write absolute fiction to denigrate others to make themselves feel better.

Perhaps you were having a tough day yesterday, going by the litany of posts you put out, it doesn't mean you can't make amends or should get away with such garbage.

[winner69]

Markets looking very shaky. Black Monday ahead?

Bitcoin was a bang-on leading indicator the last crash, and it is looking shaky too.

Mr Burry betting BIG on a crash (as I posted). Most doomsayers I ignore, but his bets are based on mega-data analysis; he's a genius. But even a genius can be wrong - often with timing the event or over-predicting the severity of the event.

Maybe that Hussman guy that was rubbished on here last week was right after all

[Bjauck]

What are a bunch of socialists doing on a share trader forum?? Long standing NZ policies have made companies in the NZ stock exchange and NZ share investors a rare breed - in comparison with other English speaking nations. So you should be asking an entirely different question.

It depends on the definition of “socialist”. Many in NZ regard “socialists” as those who think there needs to be investment priority and tax reform (even reform that would merely bring NZ in line with many other OECD countries.) So not the nationalisation type of socialist. This “socialist” (according to some,) is an avid supporter of a healthy stock market with a broad based NZ shareholder base, who regard investing in NZ business and companies as their main investment instead of investing in high priced NZ real estate. Instead of in effect subsidising real estate investment as at the moment, NZ could subsidise high tech and business development. Let the germinating businesses have a chance of staying and growing in NZ and not have to cross the ditch or be bought out by overseas companies in order to flourish.

[Azz]

Maybe that Hussman guy that was rubbished on here last week was right after all

He's a "broken clock right twice a day" type of guy. Not in the same league as Burry!

[bull....]

DairyNZ has revised down its break-even milk price to $7.51 per kilogram of milk solids (/kgMS) from $8.16/kgMS, reflecting adjustments that farmers have already made to reflect sharply lower milk prices.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/milk-price-slump-dairynz-sees-12-18-months-of-reduced-income-for-farmers/UN6HYJ4FZ5B6VHZNOSHZYTJZKM/





Fonterra cuts farmgate milk price again, putting further squeeze on dairy farmers :scared: must be expecting further falls in auction results

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/132768745/fonterra-cuts-farmgate-milk-price-again-putting-further-squeeze-on-dairy-farmers

[Azz]

The world's best stock - Nvidia - posts Q2 FY2024 results soon. See how we go there. A.I. stocks might stop the wider market from tanking...

[Azz]

Instead of in effect subsidising real estate investment

Real estate is what is keeping the NZ economy above water at the moment. And I've never understood the argument that taxing it (I think that is what you are suggesting) will make it cheaper.

[Azz]

Long standing NZ policies have made companies in the NZ stock exchange and NZ share investors a rare breed - in comparison with other English speaking nations. So you should be asking an entirely different question.

It depends on the definition of “socialist”. Many in NZ regard “socialists” as those who think there needs to be investment priority and tax reform (even reform that would merely bring NZ in line with many other OECD countries.) So not the nationalisation type of socialist. This “socialist” (according to some,) is an avid supporter of a healthy stock market with a broad based NZ shareholder base, who regard investing in NZ business and companies as their main investment instead of investing in high priced NZ real estate. Instead of in effect subsidising real estate investment as at the moment, NZ could subsidise high tech and business development. Let the germinating businesses have a chance of staying and growing in NZ and not have to cross the ditch or be bought out by overseas companies in order to flourish.

I think it's called "social democracy"; not "socialism".

[Azz]

I also converted all my super to cash about 8 months ago which has proven to be by far the right move.

Holy crap! What??! Which stock market are you talking about lol??

[ValueNZ]

The world's overvalued stock - Nvidia - posts Q2 FY2024 results soon. See how we go there. A.I. stocks might stop the wider market from tanking...
Fixed it for you... No way that company is worth over a trillion USD

[Bjauck]

I think it's called "social democracy"; not "socialism". Quite so. A difference often misunderstood - sometimes deliberately by many.

[Bjauck]

Real estate is what is keeping the NZ economy above water at the moment. And I've never understood the argument that taxing it (I think that is what you are suggesting) will make it cheaper. Real estate has become a big chunk of NZ investment. Wouldn’t reducing after taxi returns have an effect?

[Azz]

Fixed it for you... No way that company is worth over a trillion USD

I think you're wrong, and I hold it, and my recommendation is SUPER BUY, LONG-TERM HOLD. :-)

This is just the beginning for Nvidia, for A.I.

[Azz]

Real estate has become a big chunk of NZ investment. Wouldn’t reducing after taxi returns have an effect?

Increasing the cost of something by adding a tax to it generally doesn't make that thing cheaper. And even worse, placing this tax at the point of transfer (ie, capital gains) means more incentive to not put that thing up for sale in the first place, thereby reducing supply.

[Panda-NZ-]

Increasing the cost of something by adding a tax to it generally doesn't make that thing cheaper. And even worse, placing this tax at the point of transfer (ie, capital gains) means more incentive to not put that thing up for sale in the first place, thereby reducing supply.

The theory holds for a basic commodity, but not for NZ residential property where there is heaps of spare value which is ripe for IRD plucking.

[Azz]

The theory holds for a basic commodity, but not for NZ residential property where there is heaps of spare value which is ripe for IRD plucking.

So adding a tax to residential property is going to 1) provide more of it, and 2) make it cheaper to buy...?

[ValueNZ]

I think you're wrong, and I hold it, and my recommendation is SUPER BUY, LONG-TERM HOLD. :-)

This is just the beginning for Nvidia, for A.I.
There's no doubt in my mind that Nvidia is a great company with good margins and serious potential for growth... But guessing their future earnings is absurdly difficult in my mind. To me it looks like the market is already pricing in absurd levels of earnings growth (speculation?) which I don't think is justified.

How much cash do you think Nvidia is going to be able to generate over the life of the company?

[Azz]

There's no doubt in my mind that Nvidia is a great company with good margins and serious potential for growth... But guessing their future earnings is absurdly difficult in my mind. To me it looks like the market is already pricing in absurd levels of earnings growth (speculation?) which I don't think is justified.

How much cash do you think Nvidia is going to be able to generate over the life of the company?

Q2 coming up! We'll find out!

"How much cash do you think Nvidia is going to be able to generate over the life of the company?"

No clue.

[Panda-NZ-]

How about Eli Lilly and their superior drug for obesity & diabetes.

Tirzepatide.

Relatively affordable at $20k per year and solves many related health problems by removing a risk factor.

[ValueNZ]

Q2 coming up! We'll find out!

"How much cash do you think Nvidia is going to be able to generate over the life of the company?"

No clue.
As an investor it's your job to estimate the cash a business can generate, so you can discount it those cash flows and decide whether or not you wish to purchase the stock based off its current market price.

What is a company worth, if not the sum of its discounted future cashflows?

[ValueNZ]

How about Eli Lilly and their superior drug for obesity & diabetes.

Tirzepatide.

Relatively affordale at $20k per year and solves many related health problems by removing a risk factor.
I assume this post is directed at me since I mentioned I'm a type one diabetic in an earlier post.

I have no clue what Tirzepatide is, but I searched it up and it's a drug for type two diabetes. So I cannot comment on that.

[Azz]

As an investor it's your job to estimate the cash a business can generate, so you can discount it those cash flows and decide whether or not you wish to purchase the stock based off its current market price.

What is a company worth, if not the sum of its discounted future cashflows?

As an investor it's my job to buy a stock low, then have others value the company higher.

[ValueNZ]

As an investor it's my job to buy a stock low, then have others value the company higher.
But how do you decide whether a stock is "Low" if you have no reference of what the company is worth?

[Panda-NZ-]

I assume this post is directed at me since I mentioned I'm a type one diabetic in an earlier post.

I have no clue what Tirzepatide is, but I searched it up and it's a drug for type two diabetes. So I cannot comment on that.

Nope just a general comment. It will mainly be a weight loss drug with reduced T2 diabetes as an effect of that (and many other related things presumably).

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/weight-loss-drug-affordability-rcna60422

[Azz]

But how do you decide whether a stock is "Low" if you have no reference of what the company is worth?

It's worth what the market says it's worth, at any given time.

I decided Nvidia was going to be seen to be worth much more than it was valued at when I bought it, because it was already a (the!) leader in A.I. but the super demand had not even started yet. Months later ChatGPT hit the scene, and the rest is history.

[ValueNZ]

It's worth what the market says it's worth, at any given time.

I decided Nvidia was going to be seen to be worth much more than it was valued at when I bought it, because it was already a (the!) leader in A.I. but the super demand had not even started yet. Months later ChatGPT hit the scene, and the rest is history.
The market dictates the price but not the intrinsic value. The only time market price will ever influence intrinsic value is when a share issue or share repurchase occurs.

All I am recommending is a prudent approach to investing which, whilst not as exciting, should serve you better overtime.

[Azz]

The market dictates the price but not the intrinsic value. The only time market price will ever influence intrinsic value is when a share issue or share repurchase occurs.

All I am recommending is a prudent approach to investing which, whilst not as exciting, should serve you better overtime.

I reckon invest long in one or more of these:

Nvidia
Microsoft
Meta
Tesla
Apple
Amazon
Alphabet

[Bobdn]

Seriously, who doesn't have exposure to those companies. I'm trying to have less of them but everywhere I turn I end up getting more.

Kernel's Global 100 is 14 per cent Apple, 12 per cent Microsoft and 5 per cent NVIDIA for example. How about Superlife's ESG fund, ok thats 8 per cent Microsoft. I know, what about a highly diversified whole market fund called the S&P500...oh dear.

[Azz]

Seriously, who doesn't have exposure to those companies. I'm trying to have less of them but everywhere I turn I end up getting more.

Kernel's Global 100 is 14 per cent Apple. How about Superlife's ESG fund. 8 per cent Microsoft. I know, what about a highly diversified whole market fund called the S&P500...oh dear.

Those seven own the S&P.

[Azz]

Go the whole hog and buy them individual. And buy only the best one: Nvidia. ;-)

[Azz]

I'm trying to have less of them

What.........??!

[strikereureka]

I reckon invest long in one or more of these:

Nvidia
Microsoft
Meta
Tesla
Apple
Amazon
Alphabet

There should be an ETF with these as the primary holdings (>10%) - though no harm in buying them directly and making them primary holdings in your portfolio.

[Azz]

There should be an ETF with these as the primary holdings (>10%) - though no harm in buying them directly and making them primary holdings in your portfolio.

What I'm trying to figure out now - and it's extremely difficult - is what stock can be found that will enter the Big Seven group, and maybe even eclipse those within it? The "unknown" A.I. play. It's out there for sure.

[Panda-NZ-]

Won't the big corporates just buy out the most promising candidates.. ie google with deepmind and microsoft with openAI.

[Azz]

Won't the big corporates just buy out the most promising candidates.. ie google with deepmind and microsoft with openAI.

Yes, good point, but maybe not all of them.

[Azz]

OpenAI itself maybe - they could go public. But I'm looking for something that I - at this point - don't know exactly what I'm looking for. A Dell when it started trading, before it became big Dell, for example.

[workingdad]

Evergrande files for bankruptcy in USA. No surprises there….

On the back of Country garden warning of a £6bln loss for first 6 months of the year last week….

China not looking pretty

[strikereureka]

What I'm trying to figure out now - and it's extremely difficult - is what stock can be found that will enter the Big Seven group, and maybe even eclipse those within it? The "unknown" A.I. play. It's out there for sure.

Hard to break into sectors with strong moats (or monopolies to be precise) - these guys have pricing power.

I would've thought one of the Chinese tech firms like Baidu, TenCent or Alibaba might be the next big thing, but there's quite a lot of geopolitical and/or accounting/compliance challenges.

Looking at the US - maybe PLTR or IBM (a rise from the ashes)?

[Daytr]

There should be an ETF with these as the primary holdings (>10%) - though no harm in buying them directly and making them primary holdings in your portfolio.

There's the Fang plus index.
https://www.ice.com/fangplus

[Onemootpoint]

There should be an ETF with these as the primary holdings (>10%) - though no harm in buying them directly and making them primary holdings in your portfolio.

The Vanguard MGK ETF holds around 94 stocks but the 7 you refer to make up 56.6% of the portfolio, otherwise as you suggested, buy them individually in weightings you prefer.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/mgk#overview

[strikereureka]

There's the Fang plus index.
https://www.ice.com/fangplus

Thing to watch out though is that the plus implies there is leverage involved, so not for the faint of heart.

It's also not available on IBKR or Hatch, but there are similar types of leveraged ETFs.

[strikereureka]

The Vanguard MGK ETF holds around 94 stocks but the 7 you refer to make up 56.6% of the portfolio, otherwise as you suggested, buy them individually in weightings you prefer.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/mgk#overview

That's really good, eerily similar to SCHG which I hold & will buy more of when the NZD/USD rate recovers a bit.

[strikereureka]

Evergrande files for bankruptcy in USA. No surprises there….

On the back of Country garden warning of a £6bln loss for first 6 months of the year last week….

China not looking pretty

Might this have an impact on the NZ property market? Was waiting to buy FBU due to strong USD.

[Daytr]

Thing to watch out though is that the plus implies there is leverage involved, so not for the faint of heart.

It's also not available on IBKR or Hatch, but there are similar types of leveraged ETFs.

No it doesn't mean that. The plus means it's not just FANG it includes additional stocks such as Nvidia & Snowflake .

[Valuegrowth]

These things happen when we are least expected. I expect unexpected.
Markets looking very shaky. Black Monday ahead?

Bitcoin was a bang-on leading indicator the last crash, and it is looking shaky too.

Mr Burry betting BIG on a crash (as I posted). Most doomsayers I ignore, but his bets are based on mega-data analysis; he's a genius. But even a genius can be wrong - often with timing the event or over-predicting the severity of the event.

[Valuegrowth]

Cash rich debt free strong balance sheets companies are the best.
As an investor it's your job to estimate the cash a business can generate, so you can discount it those cash flows and decide whether or not you wish to purchase the stock based off its current market price.

What is a company worth, if not the sum of its discounted future cashflows?

[strikereureka]

No it doesn't mean that. The plus means it's not just FANG it includes additional stocks such as Nvidia & Snowflake .

I stand corrected - they seem to have futures and options contracts (with really high block sizes) & have beaten the major indexes quite handily.

[Valuegrowth]

Good strategy. Buying quality stocks when others are selling at ridiculously low prices.

As an investor it's my job to buy a stock low, then have others value the company higher.

[Valuegrowth]

In a situation like today, I prefer concentration.In other words put all your eggs in one basket if we can understand the business, its future value and its going concern. Debt free strong balance sheets companies cannot go out of business. Diversification is not the best way to invest.

[Azz]

Diversification is not the best way to invest.

Correct, for within a class. But I do suggest diversification across classes (some examples of classes would be US shares, NZ/AU art, NZ residential, metals, crypto) - ie, buy the best one, two, or three, say, within multiple classes. And chuck a good 10% into educated "high risk" assets while you're at it.

[Snoopy]

Correct, for within a class. But I do suggest diversification across classes (some examples of classes would be US shares, NZ/AU art, NZ residential, metals, crypto) - ie, buy the best one, two, or three, say, within multiple classes. And chuck a good 10% into educated "high risk" assets while you're at it.

Fair enough. But where are you putting the other 90% of your money?

SNOOPY

[Azz]

Correct, for within a class. But I do suggest diversification across classes (some examples of classes would be US shares, NZ/AU art, NZ residential, metals, crypto) - ie, buy the best one, two, or three, say, within multiple classes. And chuck a good 10% into educated "high risk" assets while you're at it.

And don't "dead asset" your home: if there is no mortgage against it, create one: get a revolving credit facility for two, three hundred, whatever floats your boat. It's free to have, you can negotiate the interest rate, and allows usage as needed. :-)

[ValueNZ]

Correct, for within a class. But I do suggest diversification across classes (some examples of classes would be US shares, NZ/AU art, NZ residential, metals, crypto) - ie, buy the best one, two, or three, say, within multiple classes. And chuck a good 10% into educated "high risk" assets while you're at it.
LOL art and crypto "investment"

[Azz]

LOL art and crypto "investment"

I've seen a painting swapped for a house.

I've seen Bitcoin worth more than several Auckland houses.

[ValueNZ]

I've seen a painting swapped for a house.

I've seen Bitcoin worth more than several Auckland houses.
Just because an asset class is a speculative vehicle doesn't make it an intelligent investment.

What does a piece of art or cryptocurrency produce?

[Azz]

Fair enough. But where are you putting the other 90% of your money?

Well that's the hard bit. For shares I usually weight higher for the more liquid market - eg, let's say you have 100 for shares, put 50 into US, 35 into AU, and 15 into NZ. Housing is so expensive in NZ you need a high proportion into that asset unfortunately; for many (most?) people it's their only asset. I recommend a good 20% into Bitcoin at any price under its current ATH.

[Azz]

Just because an asset class is a speculative vehicle doesn't make it an intelligent investment.

What does a piece of art or cryptocurrency produce?

A very healthy return.

[ValueNZ]

A very healthy return.
Until it doesn't and you're left with nothing.

[ValueNZ]

Well that's the hard bit. For shares I usually weight higher for the more liquid market - eg, let's say you have 100 for shares, put 50 into US, 35 into AU, and 15 into NZ. Housing is so expensive in NZ you need a high proportion into that asset unfortunately; for many (most?) people it's their only asset. I recommend a good 20% into Bitcoin at any price under its current ATH.
20%!?!?! You're out of your mind Azz

[Azz]

Until it doesn't and you're left with nothing.

I don't think you know much about either Bitcoin or art. What would be better for you would be to either learn about them, or to stay out of the fray. Otherwise, it's a bit like me commenting on the pros and cons of local nail salons: I can certainly say something but I really would have no idea what to say.

[Azz]

20%!?

That's minimum.

[ValueNZ]

I don't think you know much about either Bitcoin or art. What would be better for you would be to either learn about them, or to stay out of the fray. Otherwise, it's a bit like me commenting on the pros and cons of local nail salons: I can certainly say something but I really would have no idea what to say.
I know enough to know that they are unproductive assets that has their price dictated purely through speculation.

If I were to buy a nail salon I would treat it exactly like any other form of investment. What cash can it produce, and with what certainty can I predict these future cash flows.

Art produces NOTHING and therefore I would pay NOTHING for art as an investment.

[Azz]

I know enough to know that they are unproductive assets that has their price dictated purely through speculation.

If I were to buy a nail salon I would treat it exactly like any other form of investment. What cash can it produce, and with what certainty can I predict these future cash flows.

Art produces NOTHING and therefore I would pay NOTHING for art as an investment.

So, if you'd had the opportunity in the early 1960s to buy an Andy Warhol for 250 bucks - you would be proud to have turned that down?

[ValueNZ]

I'll add that I love the idea of cryptocurrency as the primary currency used worldwide. I am a libertarian at heart and I'm sick and tired of central banks messing with the supply of money.

Does it make it a good investment? No.

[ValueNZ]

So, if you'd had the opportunity in the early 1960s to buy an Andy Warhol for 250 bucks - you would be proud to have turned that down?
Hindsight is 20/20.

How could you predict out of tens of thousands of artists that this one artist would have their art be worth so much?

[Snoopy]

Art produces NOTHING and therefore I would pay NOTHING for art as an investment.


Not quite true. If you built up a good enough art collection you could start your own gallery and charge at the door. There is your cashflow. But if instead you built up a digital collection of failed shamcoin, well, good luck waiting for a queue of people to come to your door to look at those.

SNOOPY

[Azz]

I'll add that I love the idea of cryptocurrency as the primary currency used worldwide. I am a libertarian at heart and I'm sick and tired of central banks messing with the supply of money.

Does it make it a good investment? No.

Best investment in history, actually.

Rome wasn't built in a day. The 20 years it will take for Bitcoin yearly highs and lows to get closer and closer together (ie, stability) will mean big payoff for those on the ground, first, second floors of this incredible 4-storey asset.

[mike2020]

A mortgage free home and passive income to cover day to day life is a luxury I worked hard for. I would never put that at risk. Anything specie is done with spare monies. Im not 25 and I have generations following me who can't eat art or crypto.
I thought kfl warrants looked a little specie today 🤔

[Azz]

Not quite true. If you built up a good enough art collection you could start your own gallery and charge at the door. There is your cashflow. But if instead you built up a digital collection of failed shamcoin, well, good luck waiting for a queue of people to come to your door to look at those.

"Failed" huh. Interesting. Guess you don't hold it!

[ValueNZ]

Not quite true. If you built up a good enough art collection you could start your own gallery and charge at the door. There is your cashflow. But if instead you built up a digital collection of failed shamcoin, well, good luck waiting for a queue of people to come to your door to look at those.

SNOOPY
Good point but I am sure Azz is referring to investment into art for the hope of capital appreciation, probably through masterworks or some sham site.

[Azz]

Hindsight is 20/20.

How could you predict out of tens of thousands of artists that this one artist would have their art be worth so much?

That wasn't the point of my question.

[Azz]

A mortgage free home and passive income to cover day to day life is a luxury I worked hard for. I would never put that at risk. Anything specie is done with spare monies. Im not 25 and I have generations following me who can't eat art or crypto.
I thought kfl warrants looked a little specie today 🤔

I agree: get rid of the table as quickly as possible.

But when paid off, add a revolving credit facility. It's very valuable; well at least I find it so. I keep it at zero most of the time. Need money for, well, anything? boom there she is, no questions asked, no hassles, no minimum payments, no nothing. During the low-interest days it was essentially free money; a little more expensive now lol.

[Snoopy]

Best investment in history, actually.

Rome wasn't built in a day. The 20 years it will take for Bitcoin yearly highs and lows to get closer and closer together (ie, stability) will mean big payoff for those on the ground, first, second floors of this incredible 4-storey asset.


"Failed" huh. Interesting. Guess you don't hold it!

I was talking of a collection of failed cryptocurrencies in my cryptocurrency gallery comment, excluding bitcoin. I have actually changed my mind about bitcoin of late. I think it has an early mover advantage and momentum that will likely see it persist. I see you recognize that in order for Bitcoin to be useful as a currency it must stabilize, reflecting a volatility at most similar to what people expect of 'stable' FIAT currencies today. At that point it ceases to be an 'investment' in its own right. But at what level will it stabilize and when? I don't see a way to rationally answer that question. But I suspect it will take a major crash in value to dislodge all the speculative holders, the last leg of the bitcoin stabilization process.

I also see a risk that certain countries will declare bitcoin an illegal money laundering device and ban all transactions with platforms dealing in bitcoin. You may end up having to go to Azzerbaijen to do your bitcoin banking Azz!

SNOOPY

[Azz]

Back to 'Black Monday'. What thoughts are there on Burry (and Hussman, let's give him credit too, fair is fair) predicting a BIG drop, soon, in the US stock market?

[Azz]

I was talking of a collection of failed cryptocurrencies in my cryptocurrency gallery comment, excluding bitcoin. I have actually changed my mind about bitcoin of late. I think it has an early mover advantage and momentum that will likely see it persist. I see you recognize that in order for Bitcoin to be useful as a currency it must stabilize, reflecting a volatility at most similar to what people expect of 'stable' FIAT currencies today. At that point it ceases to be an 'investment' in its own right. But at what level will it stabilize and when? I don't see a way to rationally answer that question. But I suspect it will take a major crash in value to dislodge all the speculative holders, the last leg of the bitcoin stabilization process.

I also see a risk that certain countries will declare bitcoin an illegal money laundering device and ban all transactions with platforms dealing in bitcoin. You may end up having to go to Azzerbaijen to do your bitcoin banking Azz!

SNOOPY

I apologize; I thought you meant Bitcoin.

[Azz]

I see you recognize that in order for Bitcoin to be useful as a currency it must stabilize, reflecting a volatility at most similar to what people expect of 'stable' FIAT currencies today. At that point it ceases to be an 'investment' in its own right. But at what level will it stabilize and when? I don't see a way to rationally answer that question.

When will this happen (when will it have happened)? When the difference between YEARLY highs and YEARLY lows get closer and closer together, where one day extreme volatility is a thing of the past.

[Azz]

When will this happen (when will it have happened)? When the difference between YEARLY highs and YEARLY lows get closer and closer together, where one day extreme volatility is a thing of the past.

My prediction as to when (a date) this will be is 20 years since the first mined coin. Maybe it's longer. But I think that we, today, are closer to stability than we are to the beginning.

[Valuegrowth]

No recession yet. We can't say this time is different. Every bubble will end up with burst. I prefer defensive stocks(undervalued) more than before after seeeing asset prices in global markets.
Back to 'Black Monday'. What thoughts are there on Burry (and Hussman, let's give him credit too, fair is fair) predicting a BIG drop, soon, in the US stock market?

[Azz]

No recession yet. We can't say this time is different. Every bubble will end up with burst. I prefer defensive stocks(undervalued) more than before after seeeing asset prices in global markets.

I'm pretty worried about New Zealand actually - a proper recession could hit. Like a bad one. People out of work and no money, that sort of thing.

The US, I'm not so sure, re a bad recession. But the US stock market is a bit hot, with too many boats rising with the A.I. tide.

[SailorRob]

"[/COLOR]


What about the one staring at your phone right now?

[SailorRob]

1) Inflaton is not how a recession is measured, it can contribute to a recession, but a recession is declared when there have been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP just like the last two quarters reported which announced the country is in recession. It might be what is called a technical recession, but none the less saying the country isn't in recession let alone "running hot" is a falsehood.

​Oh man. Amateur day. To get GDP you need to know inflation... GDP isn't nominal. So if inflation calc a bit off then your GDP off....

2) My reference to inflation was in your response to you saying consumer spending is high versus GDP as if that is an indication how hot the economy is. Well with consumer spending being inflated by 7% p.a. without any additional consumption, just cost increase against a stalled or negative GDP is the real reflection of that ratio. So people are spending more to get the same or perhaps even less in goods and services.
With half the mortgage market still yet to roll onto higher interest rates, billions more is about to be sucked out of the economy over the next 12 months let alone an estimated $5Bln in export revenue being wiped out from dairy. These numbers don't include the mulitplier effect on the economy as belts are tightened and spending reduces dramatically. So we may be in a 'technical recession' its soon to become a full blown recession.

Agreed

3) Yes I have been shorting US stocks via indicies over the last month or so. And this is where the what planet are you on comes in.
To claim I must be on a big loser when day after day all the indicies are down. The best performer is down about 3.5% in the last month, the worst is down around 14%. So how on earth would you conclude I must be losing money being short US stocks? You just shoot from the hip with mud and hope it sticks. Meanwhile to anyone & I mean anyone that listens to the news or follows stocks would see how stupid these comments are.

You have been shore most of the year. If you havent deleted posts I can prove it. Your latest bout of imbecility may have been successful but so what.

4) Yes I swapped my Kiwi Saver from Equities to cash earlier in the year when the NZX50 was around 12100 & have made a steady 3 - 5% since. So yes, the right move by some margin. Again, that ganja you're smoking must be good!

Oh man why you paying in that rubbish? You lost out massively by not being in USD and US equities... you comparing one relative pile of crap to another.

You have run your mouth off a few times now, only to make a fool of yourself and at the same time insult others.
I am all for constructive healthy interactions but will not sit by and let someone just write absolute fiction to denigrate others to make themselves feel better.

Perhaps you were having a tough day yesterday, going by the litany of posts you put out, it doesn't mean you can't make amends or should get away with such garbage.

No, I've been busy, so when I get time I have to sort out many comments at the same time, not in real time. Like now.



[/QUOTE]

[SailorRob]

Maybe that Hussman guy that was rubbished on here last week was right after all


Yes his 24 year 0.63% return would suggest you're right.

What moron would rubbish a dude like this.

I mean 0.63% over 24 years.

He knows whats up and can predict the future.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic-growth-fund/

[SailorRob]

Day trader - I also converted all my super to cash about 8 months ago which has proven to be by far the right move.


Holy crap! What??! Which stock market are you talking about lol??


My thoughts exactly Azz.

This guys a comic!!!!!!!

[Daytr]

What about the one staring at your phone right now?

OK you got me I'm a Commie.
A Commie who worked as a commodity trader. 🙄

A Commie who now trades international markets. 🙄

A Commie who runs his own business. 🙄

McCarthyism at its worst.

These comments are as ridiculous as your previous and your recent response above. Childish and moronic.

Quite delusional & a waste of space & time.
So back on ignore for you.
I understand there are quite a few others who have set you to ignore as well.
Perhaps they are all communists as well! 🤣

[SailorRob]

A mortgage free home and passive income to cover day to day life is a luxury I worked hard for. I would never put that at risk. Anything specie is done with spare monies. Im not 25 and I have generations following me who can't eat art or crypto.
I thought kfl warrants looked a little specie today 樂


Already at risk bro. 60 x earnings...

Look out.

[SailorRob]

I have actually changed my mind about bitcoin of late. I think it has an early mover advantage and momentum that will likely see it persist. SNOOPY


Legendary. Good on ya Snoopy.

Home at 60 x earnings, good dose of listed property trusts and some bitcoin and you'll be right.

[SailorRob]

A Commie who now trades international markets.


Oh man....

I trade international markets on my phone, look at me, how sophisticated I am

20 years as a international banker...

Give it a rest sport.

[Daytr]

Holy crap! What??! Which stock market are you talking about lol??

The NZ stock market. I am referring to my Kiwi Saver which I don't manage but switch from one asset class to another periodically.

[SailorRob]

The NZ stock market. I am referring to my Kiwi Saver which I don't manage but switch from one asset class to another periodically.


But you trade international markets as a pro...

[winner69]

Hey Rob ….are you Rob Arnott or is that Rob your dad or uncle

[SailorRob]

Hey Rob ….are you Rob Arnott or is that Rob your dad or uncle

He's my Son.

[SailorRob]

https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/buffetts-44-cagr-and-various-types?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Great stuff.

This is so far removed from Day Traders world.

[Snoopy]

Legendary. Good on ya Snoopy.

Home at 60 x earnings, good dose of listed property trusts and some bitcoin and you'll be right.


I live in a fairly modest home SailorRob, that wouldn't be worth anything like 60x 'alternative use rental earnings'. So I don't think I am over-capitalised in my housing. If anything, since my success in other areas of investing, I am probably underweight in property now. This is why I have been looking at property trusts, although I have yet to pull the trigger on owning units in any. Oh, and yes I now believe Bitcoin will persist, and I also now believe that Covid-19 will persist. That doesn't mean I plan on 'catching' either of those. My investment 'rules' have not changed.

SNOOPY

[ValueNZ]

https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/buffetts-44-cagr-and-various-types?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Great stuff.

This is so far removed from Day Traders world.
Great read, 44% CAGR is crazy.

I wonder what Buffett thinks of Stellantis...

[SailorRob]

I live in a fairly modest home SailorRob, that wouldn't be worth anything like 60x 'alternative use rental earnings'. So I don't think I am over-capitalised in my housing. If anything, since my success in other areas of investing, I am probably underweight in property now. This is why I have been looking at property trusts, although I have yet to pull the trigger on owning units in any. Oh, and yes I now believe Bitcoin will persist, and I also now believe that Covid-19 will persist. That doesn't mean I plan on 'catching' either of those. My investment 'rules' have not changed.

SNOOPY


Fair points, the hose will be up there though.

Ok hell I thought you had massive stacks of cash in them, good to hear you don't.

As long as you have less that 5% of net worth in total exposure then that's fine.

[SailorRob]

Great read, 44% CAGR is crazy.

I wonder what Buffett thinks of Stellantis...


The old Buffett would have bought in the partnership days, now probably not. Massive competition coming out of China and very capital intensive.

I think the price covers all that. See some chunky buys in this quarters 13F's...

[Snoopy]

Fair points, the house will be up there though.


Just had a look on 'Oneroof' and saw my estimated house value was $595k. Looked on Trademe and found equivalent houses being rented for $550 per week, or $28,600 per year. That gives my house a gross PE value of $595k/$28.6k= 20.8.

Take away my $3.6k rates bill and put in a $5k allowance for maintenance, factor in tax at 28% and I get a net PE value of:

$595k/ 0.72($20k) = 41

That is a 'net yield' of 2.4%

If this was a share, I would not buy it on those yield figures today. But then that bare yield figure doesn't factor in any capital gain over the years either. Granted I am not counting on there being much CG in the foreseeable future. Yet I am nowhere near your PE of 60.

SNOOPY

[Bobdn]

Good calculations. Interesting. My house is a similar value. I'd get less rent I think. Needs a good tidy up.

[SailorRob]

Just had a look on 'Oneroof' and saw my estimated house value was $595k. Looked on Trademe and found equivalent houses being rented for $550 per week, or $28,600 per year. That gives my house a gross PE value of $595k/$28.6k= 20.8.

Take away my $3.6k rates bill and put in a $5k allowance for maintenance, factor in tax at 28% and I get a net PE value of:

$595k/ 0.72($20k) = 41

That is a 'net yield' of 2.4%

If this was a share, I would not buy it on those yield figures today. But then that bare yield figure doesn't factor in any capital gain over the years either. Granted I am not counting on there being much CG in the foreseeable future. Yet I am nowhere near your PE of 60.

SNOOPY


Do me one favor.

Using the figures you provided above, calculate the NET margin.

Well I'll do it for you, you're talking a 50% net margin.

Now look up the NET margins of some of the best businesses in the world...

No way do you have a 50% NET margin.

All kinds of reasons you won't but you could think you do for many years yes...

Perhaps not my 60 but even your 41 is NOSEBLEED and will guarantee you lose a ton of money.

[Daytr]

I live in a fairly modest home SailorRob, that wouldn't be worth anything like 60x 'alternative use rental earnings'. So I don't think I am over-capitalised in my housing. If anything, since my success in other areas of investing, I am probably underweight in property now. This is why I have been looking at property trusts, although I have yet to pull the trigger on owning units in any. Oh, and yes I now believe Bitcoin will persist, and I also now believe that Covid-19 will persist. That doesn't mean I plan on 'catching' either of those. My investment 'rules' have not changed.

SNOOPY

Hey Snoopy, this is quite old but pretty funny.
https://youtu.be/8dak4TxfRkM

I had friends that were swept up in the NFT market as well. Bitcoin & ETH etc may or may not have a future, no one really knows.
I wrote a paper on BTC back in 2011 or 2012 and was comparing it to gold & that BTC would become an investment threat to gold which it obviously did. But did I buy any? Nope. DOH! I think it was trading at around $2 at the time.

https://www.cnn.com/style/article/bored-apes-sothebys-lawsuit/index.html

[Valuegrowth]

Few things like debt, interest rate , real estate and other assets.

“Well come to new era. Monitory policy is short term instead of structural reform. Real estate is unstable. Asset prices need to tumble.”

What did Mr Taleb say?

[Valuegrowth]

Job market is still strong. Its resilient has surprised many economists. On top of that investors and traders are continue to make capital gain. In addition, after covid-19 tourism has rebounded world wide and PATA forecast robust annual tourism growth in Asia pacific destinations. There are still investment opportunities in out of favour areas or less known areas. Recssion is getting postpone. When everybody thinks about recession is coming in 2023, it is not going to happen. People have been talking about a recession for two years. It will come when we are least expected and suddenly. IMHO high asset prices need a correction for a sustainable run exception is undervalued assets.


I'm pretty worried about New Zealand actually - a proper recession could hit. Like a bad one. People out of work and no money, that sort of thing.

The US, I'm not so sure, re a bad recession. But the US stock market is a bit hot, with too many boats rising with the A.I. tide.

[mike2020]

I did the same as snoops. I came up with a conservative 45 maybe 50. The level of humility on st is nonexistent now. Ive a few good dinners out off the hound and co in the past. Literally things I could see no downside on. Whats out there now?

[SailorRob]

I did the same as snoops. I came up with a conservative 45 maybe 50. The level of humility on st is nonexistent now. Ive a few good dinners out off the hound and co in the past. Literally things I could see no downside on. Whats out there now?


The level of humility on st is nonexistent now. Ive a few good dinners out off the hound and co in the past. Literally things I could see no downside on. Whats out there now?

What does this mean? Struggling to follow.

[Mrbuyit]

I think Mike is referring to the user beagle (hound)that had a good nose for a deal and was willing to share their insights.. which in turn was profitable (dinners out).
I might have misunderstood but that's my assumption anyway..

[SailorRob]

I think Mike is referring to the user beagle (hound)that had a good nose for a deal and was willing to share their insights.. which in turn was profitable (dinners out).
I might have misunderstood but that's my assumption anyway..


Yeah makes sense now. Mike is saying there is no humility left here, but he advised the Dog on some opportunities that could not fail and the pooch paid him with dinner.

[mike2020]

You cracked the code. All this long winded oca quantum float theory hasn't put a breeze in anyone's sails has it. I have the trailer hooked up to the ute but I just can't get it into reverse.

[Azz]

The NZ stock market. I am referring to my Kiwi Saver which I don't manage but switch from one asset class to another periodically.

So you opted to ignore a US-weighted KiwiSaver fund during a massive bull run. Top-notch, you are!

[SailorRob]

You cracked the code. All this long winded oca quantum float theory hasn't put a breeze in anyone's sails has it. I have the trailer hooked up to the ute but I just can't get it into reverse.


Quantum float theory?

Yes it's working perfectly, the very last thing I want is the share price rising. In fact as with all of my holdings I want the share price falling.

If I was given all of the businesses I own a part of, for free, I'd be the richest man in the world by far.

So if I can buy more closer to free then better then further away from free...


Really simple stuff...

[SailorRob]

So you opted to ignore a US-weighted KiwiSaver fund during a massive bull run. Top-notch, you are!


Yeah he struggles bigly.

[Azz]

So back on ignore for you.

Can you ignore yourself?

[ValueNZ]

You cracked the code. All this long winded oca quantum float theory hasn't put a breeze in anyone's sails has it. I have the trailer hooked up to the ute but I just can't get it into reverse.
It's hardly a complicated "theory". Assets can be funded through either equity or liabilities. Since float (ORA) is free money and basically non-callable, your assets increase with no interest cost. As you make a profit on your assets, your return on equity is a lot higher than without the liability. Since theres no interest cost associated with the ORA, it makes sense to accrue as much as possible of it. So even if OCA has a low return on assets in the future, their return on equity will actually be high.

OCA having a low share price makes you as an investor better off, not worse off.

[mike2020]

It's hardly a complicated "theory". Assets can be funded through either equity or liabilities. Since float (ORA) is free money and basically non-callable, your assets increase with no interest cost. As you make a profit on your assets, your return on equity is a lot higher than without the liability. Since theres no interest cost associated with the ORA, it makes sense to accrue as much as possible of it. So even if OCA has a low return on assets in the future, their return on equity will actually be high.

OCA having a low share price makes you as an investor better off, not worse off.
I got through that without nodding off and still no better for it. Show me the money.
You may sleep better for knowing that but it is having no visible impact on share price.
I am inclined to agree with sr. Id like it cheaper but not for longer. Once I have my bag full I like any other sane person want pics of rockets and expressions of delight.

[ValueNZ]

I got through that without nodding off and still no better for it. Show me the money.
You may sleep better for knowing that but it is having no visible impact on share price.
I am inclined to agree with sr. Id like it cheaper but not for longer. Once I have my bag full I like any other sane person want pics of rockets and expressions of delight.
Markets often are irrational and unpredictable when it comes to pricing companies. When will the market correctly price OCA? No clue, and anyone who claims they do is full of sh1t.

I sleep better at night knowing I have no control of what will happen to the share price in the next day, week, month or year. All the while, Oceania continues building retirement villages and getting occupants into them, accruing ORA (at a high CAGR) which will allow them to profit nicely in the future.

[SailorRob]

I got through that without nodding off and still no better for it. Show me the money.
You may sleep better for knowing that but it is having no visible impact on share price.
I am inclined to agree with sr. Id like it cheaper but not for longer. Once I have my bag full I like any other sane person want pics of rockets and expressions of delight.

Missing the entire point.

Read my $2 by 2024 thread and you'll see what I mean.

So Buffetts insane?

[SailorRob]

I got through that without nodding off and still no better for it. Show me the money.
You may sleep better for knowing that but it is having no visible impact on share price.
I am inclined to agree with sr. Id like it cheaper but not for longer. Once I have my bag full I like any other sane person want pics of rockets and expressions of delight.

Just read the balance sheet.

The whole point is that it's invisible in the share price which is at around 25c on the dollar of NTA....

[winner69]

Hey value ....when you say 'when will the market correctly price OCA?' are you really saying the current price is not 'correct'

Wonder what the current price is at the moment .....maybe a lot lower than 76 cents?

[ValueNZ]

Hey value ....when you say 'when will the market correctly price OCA?' are you really saying the current price is not 'correct'

Wonder what the current price is at the moment .....maybe a lot lower than 76 cents?
I am saying that the market is operating at a point that fundamentally makes no sense.

Markets operating at points where they shouldn't is the whole reason why stock picking can be profitable. If every market correctly priced each stock efficiently there would be no extra profit to be made from stock picking.

[Bobdn]

Omg, OCA is spreading to other threads;).

I do enjoy the OCA thread. It's a great reminder of how difficult it is to stock pick and why I no longer try.

Hope it all works out, OCA is still buried in NZG somewhere.

[Azz]

Job market is still strong. Its resilient has surprised many economists. On top of that investors and traders are continue to make capital gain. In addition, after covid-19 tourism has rebounded world wide and PATA forecast robust annual tourism growth in Asia pacific destinations. There are still investment opportunities in out of favour areas or less known areas. Recssion is getting postpone. When everybody thinks about recession is coming in 2023, it is not going to happen. People have been talking about a recession for two years. It will come when we are least expected and suddenly. IMHO high asset prices need a correction for a sustainable run exception is undervalued assets.



Re employment, I'm seeing a few companies here that are massively over-staffed, and white-collar workers are slitting their own throats by demanding to "work" from home which re-classifies those jobs as remote work that can be done anywhere in the world and usually cheaper; and at the same time A.I. will very quickly remove entire classes of white collar... Dairy isn't looking so great right now... And the net-zero religious fanatics who are determined to destroy entire economies have a hold on both of the main political parties in this country.

[winner69]

Some commentators have said we've had peak travel and travel demand is declining

Even Ryanair sounded a bit gloomy the other day

[Bobdn]

It's not a bad thing, I mean we are in a climate emergency and have a planet that is literally boiling. We also learnt, during lockdowns, that we dont actually need tourists coming here. My friends in Wellington, who were working from home in their slippers and for some reason still are, told me the economy thrived without Internantional visitors.

It really made me think. I always thought for years that tourism was important and our second biggest foreign exchange earner. Turns out I was wrong. It's a nice to have (I guess) but ultimately, unimportant.

[mike2020]

Fonterra shutting down dryers across the Waikato due to lack of supply. Staff either relocated or taking redundancy. It's not all rose's everywhere.

[SailorRob]

It's not a bad thing, I mean we are in a climate emergency and have a planet that is literally boiling. We also learnt, during lockdowns, that we dont actually need tourists coming here. My friends in Wellington, who were working from home in their slippers and for some reason still are, told me the economy thrived without Internantional visitors.

It really made me think. I always thought for years that tourism was important and our second biggest foreign exchange earner. Turns out I was wrong. It's a nice to have (I guess) but ultimately, unimportant.


Not just literally boiling, large parts of it are in fact vaporising.

Literally vaporising.

Some of the vapor is superheating. Literally.

[Azz]

we are in a climate emergency

That's what you're told to think, but it's complete nonsense.

[SailorRob]

That's what you're told to think, but it's complete nonsense.

The fact that they wrote that is just incredible. So lucky to be competing against these people in the market.

Literally boiling!!!!!

[Valuegrowth]

Hope Americans and Chinese will pick NZ as their one of travel destinations. I heard mass tourism is destroying the planet. I like sustainable tourism. Recently, I had some meals in few restaurants. I didn’t see any empty seats. Best part is even younger crowd has purchasing power like top traders. Now I confirm recession is far away. In the mean time some of my stocks are beating world markets. I also heard somebody is saying always there is a bull market somewhere. I agree with it. As long as I see value and strong balance sheet, I am not hesitate to invest in quality companies. I will avoid high leveraged companies with mountain of debt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/china-lifts-ban-on-group-travel-boosting-asias-tourism-hotel-stocks.html

China lifts ban on group travel to more than 70 locations, giving a boost to travel stocks


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/03/international-travel-surges-domestic-airfares-hotel-rates-lag.html

Americans are going abroad in droves — at the expense of domestic travel


https://www.statista.com/statistics/687331/new-zealand-international-visitors/

Tourism sector recovery in New Zealand

Forecasts show that the international tourism expenditure in New Zealand  (https://statista.com/forecasts/1152596/international-tourism-expenditure-forecast-in-new-zealand)is expected to increase steadily between 2022 and 2025, recovering from low tourism expenditure, attributed to a sharp decline in visitor numbers, due to border closures and travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/amsterdam-wants-to-change-its-image-and-its-telling-unruly-tourists-to-stay-away/news-story/01abfcf63dbed0f98c0b22bc9f683f0c

Amsterdam wants to change its image and its telling unruly tourists to stay away

Bali isn’t the only tourist hotspot making moves to change its image and discourage unruly travellers from visiting.

Some commentators have said we've had peak travel and travel demand is declining

Even Ryanair sounded a bit gloomy the other day

[Bobdn]

Gee, do I really have to put a "sarcastic" footnote on my posts. I thought the word "literally" was the give away. I'll work on my style some more.

Or are you guys just playing along?

[ValueNZ]

Gee, do I really have to put a "sarcastic" footnote on my posts. I thought the word "literally" was the give away. I'll work on my style some more.

Or are you guys just playing along?
Honestly there are people out there that think that way. I couldn't tell your post was satire.

[Bobdn]

Thats true. There really is.

Although I did add some flavour about public servants with no skin in the game telling us our economy is thriving in lockdown.

Still, I must do better. The need to explain means I have failed!

[mike2020]

Not just literally boiling, large parts of it are in fact vaporising.

Literally vaporising.

Some of the vapor is superheating. Literally.
Climate change denial sr. That's pretty brave in today's world. Make no mistake about it change has been massive. The oceans have risen over 400ft already.

[winner69]

Good ideas are rare. When you find one bet heavily.

[Daytr]

Thats true. There really is.

Although I did add some flavour about public servants with no skin in the game telling us our economy is thriving in lockdown.

Still, I must do better. The need to explain means I have failed!

Well there is people who follow the science & others who are blinkered. To think that the impact of humankind is not impacting the climate incrementally is lunacy.

[mike2020]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1017175]Well there is people who follow the science & others who are blinkered. To think that the impact of humankind is not impacting the climate incrementally is lunacy.[/QUOTE

There's a theory that whenever something requires a consensus its because it lacks factual substance. Who's blinkered? Are carbon levels any higher than a historical average? Do you know how they can measure levels from fossils? It is positively fascinating. Not enough carbon and plants become vulnerable to drought.

[ValueNZ]

Well there is people who follow the science & others who are blinkered. To think that the impact of humankind is not impacting the climate incrementally is lunacy.
Do we as humans impact the climate through greenhouse gas emissions? Probably. But the question should be does the cost of regulation outweigh the gain of slightly less emissions? That is a question that seems to never be asked by anyone and not one that I know the answer to.

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1017175]Well there is people who follow the science & others who are blinkered. To think that the impact of humankind is not impacting the climate incrementally is lunacy.[/QUOTE

There's a theory that whenever something requires a consensus its because it lacks factual substance. Who's blinkered? Are carbon levels any higher than a historical average? Do you know how they can measure levels from fossils? It is positively fascinating. Not enough carbon and plants become vulnerable to drought.

Carbon levels can't be looked at in isolated. Human activity has also decimated what absorbs carbon including the felling of something like 70% of the native forests and the health of the ocean. What the world could previously absorb in regards CO2e levels is not measure of what can be absorbed now or in the future.

[Daytr]

Do we as humans impact the climate through greenhouse gas emissions? Probably. But the question should be does the cost of regulation outweigh the gain of slightly less emissions? That is a question that seems to never be asked by anyone and not one that I know the answer to.

We haven't seen the gigantic cost yet, that is to come. Although insurance premiums would suggest we are seeing the very start of some of that cost

[Bobdn]

@valuenz. No, we'll make ourselves broke for no good reason.

The question you raise is asked and answered comprehensively in two books I read recently (listened to actually).

Epstein's Fossil Future and Apocalypse Never by Shellenberger.

Now, a word of warning: these books will take you away from the alarmist coverage of the msm and present rational, cogent arguments. It will be a jarring and unsettling experience for most but worth it.

[SailorRob]

Gee, do I really have to put a "sarcastic" footnote on my posts. I thought the word "literally" was the give away. I'll work on my style some more.

Or are you guys just playing along?


Glad to hear it as your posts are usually very high quality.

The issue is that there are many people who read and hear people saying stuff like that and they believe it outright...

[SailorRob]

Climate change denial sr. That's pretty brave in today's world. Make no mistake about it change has been massive. The oceans have risen over 400ft already.


Correct. The Fiords in Fiordland were carved out by ice over may cycles. The last one had the glaciers hitting the Tasman around 9000 years ago.

Those god damned cave men.

Climate change is massive, over 3 or 400,000 years you will see it all.

Very recently the Northern Ice cap went as far south as New York.

But we are still in an ice age now. One that began 110,000 years ago.

This is the Holocene Sport.

[SailorRob]

[QUOTE=Daytr;1017175]Well there is people who follow the science & others who are blinkered. To think that the impact of humankind is not impacting the climate incrementally is lunacy.[/QUOTE

There's a theory that whenever something requires a consensus its because it lacks factual substance. Who's blinkered? Are carbon levels any higher than a historical average? Do you know how they can measure levels from fossils? It is positively fascinating. Not enough carbon and plants become vulnerable to drought.


No, they are FAR far lower than historical average, we're in massive Co2 drought

Biggest risk by far is slipping back into a glacial period as we are in the middle of an ice age now.

[SailorRob]

Do we as humans impact the climate through greenhouse gas emissions? Probably. But the question should be does the cost of regulation outweigh the gain of slightly less emissions? That is a question that seems to never be asked by anyone and not one that I know the answer to.


Great post, but you know another question you've never heard asked?

IF we are impacting climate, could it in fact be positively? All the evidence would suggest so.

[SailorRob]

We haven't seen the gigantic cost yet, that is to come. Although insurance premiums would suggest we are seeing the very start of some of that cost


Wrong, this is from idiots putting stuff where it should not be...

As Buffett has said time and again, zero impact on Berkshires insurance operations.

Google Earth the valley that flooded in Hawks Bay... Any hints that it had totally flooded before hundreds of times?

And imagine what was required to push all that silt out back when it was heavily forested too.

[Daytr]

@valuenz. No, we'll make ourselves broke for no good reason.

The question you raise is asked and answered comprehensively in two books I read recently (listened to actually).

Epstein's Fossil Future and Apocalypse Never by Shellenberger.

Now, a word of warning: these books will take you away from the alarmist coverage of the msm and present rational, cogent arguments. It will be a jarring and unsettling experience for most but worth it.

Anyone can easily find compliant views that appease your already established position. That doesn't mean they are factual or even close to being correct.

Epstein is a known fossil fuel promoter and his bias is transparently obvious.

Here is a review of Shellenberger's publication which slates it in no uncertain terms.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/review-bad-science-and-bad-arguments-abound-in-apocalypse-never/

Please at least offer some compelling and scientifically respected sources that uphold your view.

Very poor response, very poor sources

[SailorRob]

Watching the Minimum wage Labor voters battling into the 11 degree high in Whangarei huddling in Kmart clothes vaping for a bit of extra warmth, having paid all their climate taxes to the upper middle class who flew out to Fiji to escape it is really Gold!

[SailorRob]

Anyone can easily find compliant views that appease your already established position. That doesn't mean they are factual or even close to being correct.

Epstein is a known fossil fuel promoter and his bias is transparently obvious.

Here is a review of Shellenberger's publication which slates it in no uncertain terms.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/review-bad-science-and-bad-arguments-abound-in-apocalypse-never/

Please at least offer some compelling and scientifically respected sources that uphold your view.

Very poor response, very poor sources


Suppose this Pillock will rubbish this as well...

https://www.fishpond.co.nz/Books/Heaven-and-Earth-Ian-Plimer/9781589794726?utm_source=googleps&utm_medium=ps&utm_campaign=NZ&gclid=Cj0KCQjw84anBhCtARIsAISI-xfRMKpuA5tmwDbGiwdPp-4e53IhYAbceivT2LSusnS7O8geymnLwq0aAqO3EALw_wcB

[winner69]

Another Air NZ sale to North America. Forward bookings for longhaul must really be struggling now.

[777]

Another Air NZ sale to North America. Forward bookings for longhaul must really be struggling now.

Probably just matching both United and American who have increased services to NZ.

[causecelebre]

Probably just matching both United and American who have increased services to NZ.

And Delta. Who start services ex NZ in October. We are in France for xmas. Fares on star alliance flights around $20k for the four of us. Delta sub $10k. No brainer

[Snoopy]

Just had a look on 'Oneroof' and saw my estimated house value was $595k. Looked on Trademe and found equivalent houses being rented for $550 per week, or $28,600 per year. That gives my house a gross PE value of $595k/$28.6k= 20.8.

Take away my $3.6k rates bill and put in a $5k allowance for maintenance, factor in tax at 28% and I get a net PE value of:

$595k/ 0.72($20k) = 41

That is a 'net yield' of 2.4%

If this was a share, I would not buy it on those yield figures today. But then that bare yield figure doesn't factor in any capital gain over the years either. Granted I am not counting on there being much CG in the foreseeable future. Yet I am nowhere near your PE of 60.



Do me one favor.

Using the figures you provided above, calculate the NET margin.

Well I'll do it for you, you're talking a 50% net margin.

Now look up the NET margins of some of the best businesses in the world...

No way do you have a 50% NET margin.

All kinds of reasons you won't but you could think you do for many years yes...

Perhaps not my 60 but even your 41 is NOSEBLEED and will guarantee you lose a ton of money.


I really don't understand what your post is on about SailorRob. You say I have a net profit margin of 50%, which I have confirmed by my calculation below

My net profit rental margin is: (0.72x$20,000)/$28,600 = 50.3%

Then you say I can't have a net profit of 50%, even though you have just done the calculation yourself, confirming it to be true!

Of course none of this is concerned with the cost of acquiring the housing asset in the first place. In the case of housing that is what dampens down your investment return. Because the cost of acquiring a property is high. But that doesn't change the fact that the net profit margin in this housing exercise is 50%. Obviously of you refurbish the kitchen you might be down $20k for that year eliminating your profit for that year. But you are probably increasing the price you would get for your house if you sold it by doing that, and such a refurbishment would have a 20 year life. Over 20 years I have already allowed for $100,000 in capital expenditure and maintenance. So I think my figures are about right.

The profitability of this exercise is the strongest possible reasoning behind me making money, not 'losing money' as you claim.

SNOOPY

[Azz]

Gee, do I really have to put a "sarcastic" footnote on my posts. I thought the word "literally" was the give away. I'll work on my style some more.

Or are you guys just playing along?

Sarcasm is hard to translate in chat posts, often. Especially when your sarcasm was so true to life from what we get shoved in our faces about "climate change". :-)

[Azz]

Well there is people who follow the science & others who are blinkered. To think that the impact of humankind is not impacting the climate incrementally is lunacy.

Humans impact the "climate", locally, absolutely.

But not globally via CO2 emissions; it's a total fantasy.

[haewai]

Suppose this Pillock will rubbish this as well...

https://www.fishpond.co.nz/Books/Heaven-and-Earth-Ian-Plimer/9781589794726?utm_source=googleps&utm_medium=ps&utm_campaign=NZ&gclid=Cj0KCQjw84anBhCtARIsAISI-xfRMKpuA5tmwDbGiwdPp-4e53IhYAbceivT2LSusnS7O8geymnLwq0aAqO3EALw_wcB

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_and_Earth_(book)

[Daytr]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_and_Earth_(book)

Thanks Haewai.
So the mining lobby plays down climate change, nothing new there.

I don't need to rubbish this as plenty of far more qualified people than I already have.

[Azz]

Thanks Haewai.
So the mining lobby plays down climate change, nothing new there.

I don't need to rubbish this as plenty of far more qualified people than I already have.

Why was the religious slogan changed from the very specific "global warming" to the completely non-specific and utterly ridiculous "climate change"?

[haewai]

Why was the religious slogan changed from the very specific "global warming" to the completely non-specific and utterly ridiculous "climate change"?

Why don't you google it yourself? Welcome to my ignore list.

[Azz]

Welcome to my ignore list.

Coward..............

[Daytr]

Coward..............

I would suggest Haewai is just being selective.
Why waste time on such idiocy.
As I have said previously, this forum provides great insight to psychological profiles of its participants. The good & the bad, the generous & the nasty, the enlightened and the idiotic.

[Azz]

I would suggest Haewai is just being selective.
Why waste time on such idiocy.
As I have said previously, this forum provides great insight to psychological profiles of its participants. The good & the bad, the generous & the nasty, the enlightened and the idiotic.

You just repeat what you're told. It was the fear of global cooling in the 1970s. None of this temperature garbage is new.

[Daytr]

You just repeat what you're told. It was the fear of global cooling in the 1970s. None of this temperature garbage is new.

Added to my ignore lost as well. Ahhh peace & intelligent conversation can reign again.

[Azz]

Added to my ignore lost as well. Ahhh peace & intelligent conversation can reign again.

Coward..............

[bull....]

mtge rates heading up again today .... 8% anyone ?

ASB heeds their owner's boss, raising home loan rates in unseasonal drive to protect profits

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/123775/asb-heeds-their-owners-boss-raising-home-loan-rates-unseasonal-drive

westpacs quarterly update today mentioned stress becoming apparant now on there books

:scared: ram raid's on supermarkets soon ? no wonder the nz50 getting pummeled

[causecelebre]

mtge rates heading up again today .... 8% anyone ?

ASB heeds their owner's boss, raising home loan rates in unseasonal drive to protect profits

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/123775/asb-heeds-their-owners-boss-raising-home-loan-rates-unseasonal-drive

westpacs quarterly update today mentioned stress becoming apparant now on there books

:scared: ram raid's on supermarkets soon ? no wonder the nz50 getting pummeled

Wait. What?!! But Tony Alexander told me interest rates maxed out and house prices had bottomed?!!

[SailorRob]

I really don't understand what your post is on about SailorRob. You say I have a net profit margin of 50%, which I have confirmed by my calculation below

My net profit rental margin is: (0.72x$20,000)/$28,600 = 50.3%

Then you say I can't have a net profit of 50%, even though you have just done the calculation yourself, confirming it to be true!

Of course none of this is concerned with the cost of acquiring the housing asset in the first place. In the case of housing that is what dampens down your investment return. Because the cost of acquiring a property is high. But that doesn't change the fact that the net profit margin in this housing exercise is 50%. Obviously of you refurbish the kitchen you might be down $20k for that year eliminating your profit for that year. But you are probably increasing the price you would get for your house if you sold it by doing that, and such a refurbishment would have a 20 year life. Over 20 years I have already allowed for $100,000 in capital expenditure and maintenance. So I think my figures are about right.

The profitability of this exercise is the strongest possible reasoning behind me making money, not 'losing money' as you claim.

SNOOPY

I said YOU are talking a net profit margin of 50%. I did not say you have one. You do not. You just think you do.

$100k over 20 years is a joke and why the majority of older houses around NZ are crumbling.

100k over 20 years won't keep the asset in as new condition, let alone keep up with all the massive improvements in new stock (bigger better) and that's what you'll be competing against.

[SailorRob]

Why was the religious slogan changed from the very specific "global warming" to the completely non-specific and utterly ridiculous "climate change"?


Very very good question.

[Daytr]

Wait. What?!! But Tony Alexander told me interest rates maxed out and house prices had bottomed?!!

To be fair he was referring to the Reserve Bank not the trading banks and in this case he may well be right.

[bull....]

NZ10yr at record high this cycle 5.16 % :scared: nz50 down again

[mike2020]

I think I heard someone from the oca thread popping a cork?

[causecelebre]

To be fair he was referring to the Reserve Bank not the trading banks and in this case he may well be right.

Tony Alexander has picked 50 of the last 2 real estate rallies

[alokdhir]

NZ10yr at record high this cycle 5.16 % :scared: nz50 down again

U must have heard " It becomes darkest before dawn " ....hopefully it explains whats going on with rates ...:p

[mike2020]

Post gfc I fixed at 9.5% for 36 months and rates dropped like a stone. I had friends who were/are property developers and have a successful mortgage broker business and we all did the same. Recently its lower for longer possibly negative rates now its higher for longer which probably means a rate cut post election 🤔

[Valuegrowth]

At some point rates will fall. Others are waiting for Fed. 2nd half of 2024 may see first cut. Cannot expect below 5 before 2027.

[SailorRob]

Tony Alexander has picked 50 of the last 2 real estate rallies

Yep anyone who takes him seriously has got serious problems.

Fine to use for raw data but the guy is a total and utter joke.

[SailorRob]

Post gfc I fixed at 9.5% for 36 months and rates dropped like a stone. I had friends who were/are property developers and have a successful mortgage broker business and we all did the same. Recently its lower for longer possibly negative rates now its higher for longer which probably means a rate cut post election 🤔

Good post, not many are happy to admit it when they got it wrong.

[Daytr]

Post gfc I fixed at 9.5% for 36 months and rates dropped like a stone. I had friends who were/are property developers and have a successful mortgage broker business and we all did the same. Recently its lower for longer possibly negative rates now its higher for longer which probably means a rate cut post election 🤔

My take is Orr is slowly learning the language of a central banker. Say what you want them to think, not what you might do.

Otherwise the market anticipates what was forecast and can undo what might have been.

The last rate hike was precisely due to this. When lifting rates for the 2nd last time Orr made the mistake of saying rates will be reduced in early '24, so the banks didn't initially pass on the hike. This forced the RBNZ to do an additional hike & change the language to keep the longer term rates higher.

I still expect to see a rate cut in the next 6 - 9 months.

[bull....]

U must have heard " It becomes darkest before dawn " ....hopefully it explains whats going on with rates ...:p

we not even at real rates yet in nz , in the US they are near 2 now , i heard on tv there long run real rate is around 2.5 so maybe bit more upside there.
in nz i havnt looked at what nz real rates are on average long term

[percy]

I still expect that nobody cares what you expect.

Wrong.
I do.

[alokdhir]

Post gfc I fixed at 9.5% for 36 months and rates dropped like a stone. I had friends who were/are property developers and have a successful mortgage broker business and we all did the same. Recently its lower for longer possibly negative rates now its higher for longer which probably means a rate cut post election 樂

I also blocked huge funds in term deposit @ 7.25% for 5 years in April 2010 ....lured by high rates while in hindsight I realised that I wud have done 10 times better just putting them in KFL !!

Learning from that experience I think rates are close to topping and NZX close to bottoming ...choosing equity now over term deposits will be much better option in the long run ...IMHO

[SailorRob]

I also blocked huge funds in term deposit @ 7.25% for 5 years in April 2010 ....lured by high rates while in hindsight I realised that I wud have done 10 times better just putting them in KFL !!

Learning from that experience I think rates are close to topping and NZX close to bottoming ...choosing equity now over term deposits will be much better option in the long run ...IMHO

At any point of time equity will be a much better option in the long run. Any.

[alokdhir]

At any point of time equity will be a much better option in the long run. Any.

But some times are better then many ...like now !!

In 2021 KFL SP was $ 2.10 which included almost 22 cents premium to NAV ...just wondering how long it will take for them to feel they got the timing right ...maybe for them " Long run " will become much longer then ones doing now at $ 1.32 and at discount to NAV ...

But I do acknowledge that equity is better option then fixed rates in the long run !!

[bull....]

forget the NZ 50

The biggest show on the planet is tomorrow morning


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntMRzPzSvM4

[Azz]

The biggest show on the planet is tomorrow morning

This is true!

[Azz]

who worked as a commodity trader.

What were the commodities exactly? Maybe you could tell us some stories. I'm sure you made loads of money!


who now trades international markets

But you switched your KiwiSaver over to a cash fund for the US bull run? You're a real genius!

[Bobdn]

Big day tomorrow! I'd never invest in NVIDIA but as a lazy and low IQ indexer, it's probably in my top 10 holdings.

[bull....]

This is true!

jumped 24% last announcement and is ranked 4 i believe in sp500 weightings. obviously this is serious stuff if you trade the index but on the other hand its of no relevance to sailor boy unless buffett has some hidden in the berkshire fund somewhere

[bull....]

Big day tomorrow! I'd never invest in NVIDIA but as a lazy and low IQ indexer it's probably in my top 10 holdings.

think its in many growth funds listed in NZ

[Bobdn]

It is. For me, for example, it's 5.7 per cent of Kernel's Global 100 and 2 per cent of Simplicity's Unhedged Global fund (just 0.15 per cent fees, as good as it gets in NZ I think for a passive international fund).

[ValueNZ]

jumped 24% last announcement and is ranked 4 i believe in sp500 weightings. obviously this is serious stuff if you trade the index but on the other hand its of no relevance to sailor boy unless buffett has some hidden in the berkshire fund somewhere
Berkshire wouldn't touch nivida with a ten foot pole.

[bull....]

Berkshire wouldn't touch nivida with a ten foot pole.

they do say old people are resistant to change

[ValueNZ]

they do say old people are resistant to change
60 years of 20% CAGR does that to people. Why change what works.

[bull....]

60 years of 20% CAGR does that to people. Why change what works.

if it wasnt for his apprentices buying apple buffett performance would have been very poor , i believe he said he doesnt really understand tech which is understandable as you get older its harder to comprehend new ttechnologies

[causecelebre]

Its a pity for Softbank, Nvidia wasn't able to buy ARM. The stock portion of NVDA of the sale for Softbank would have earned circa $90b for the $32b invested. ARM will be of the most anticipated IPO for a long time I suspect. No doubt Statler and Waldorf will not be buyers

[SailorRob]

What were the commodities exactly? Maybe you could tell us some stories. I'm sure you made loads of money!



But you switched your KiwiSaver over to a cash fund for the US bull run? You're a real genius!


Yeah, pretty dangerous guy who has a lot of people fooled.

Some old types like Percy are seemingly trading off Daytras predictions of near term future rates moves. They have stated that they care and take notice of what he says.

They should know not to take any notice of anyone's predictions of future rates as nobody in history has been able to do it.

Instead they are making financial decisions based on some random internet guys take on them when they probably are not in a position to be losing a lot of money.

[SailorRob]

if it wasnt for his apprentices buying apple buffett performance would have been very poor , i believe he said he doesnt really understand tech which is understandable as you get older its harder to comprehend new ttechnologies

Yes this is all correct.

Far from being a company that owns over a trillion dollars of diverse assets, Berkshire is simply a stock portfolio.

With Berkshires share of Apples earnings being less than 5% of Berkshires earnings, they would certainly be dead in the water without Apple.

Yes Tod and Tedd bought (BROUGHT) the Apple position, Buffett had nothing to do with it as he's to old and doesn't understand new ttechnologies

Apple is a new ttechnologies company. Not consumer goods company.

[bull....]

nvidia result massive 16 billion forecast going forward

[bull....]

Yes this is all correct.

Far from being a company that owns over a trillion dollars of diverse assets, Berkshire is simply a stock portfolio.

With Berkshires share of Apples earnings being less than 5% of Berkshires earnings, they would certainly be dead in the water without Apple.

Yes Tod and Tedd bought (BROUGHT) the Apple position, Buffett had nothing to do with it as he's to old and doesn't understand new ttechnologies

Apple is a new ttechnologies company. Not consumer goods company.

if they didnt own apple they would be roughly 100 billion + worse off and that is money which you want. why so they can invest it in there businesses side you so much like

[Rawz]

Clown world in here this morning

[Daytr]

Clown world in here this morning

I can see who's posting but not what's being written as the clowns are on ignore.
If I want to be entertained I will re-watch Dumb & Dumber.
It's peaceful not seeing the trolls nasty snipes.
Pity some people cannot concentrate on what most of us are here for, to share ideas.

[bull....]

I can see who's posting but not what's being written as the clowns are on ignore.
If I want to be entertained I will re-watch Dumb & Dumber.
It's peaceful not seeing the trolls nasty snipes.
Pity some people cannot concentrate on what most of us are here for, to share ideas.

about what climate change and socialism anyway was your job a sell side or buy side

[Azz]

Clown world in here this morning

Did you buy Nvidia?

[Azz]

I can see who's posting but not what's being written as the clowns are on ignore.
If I want to be entertained I will re-watch Dumb & Dumber.
It's peaceful not seeing the trolls nasty snipes.
Pity some people cannot concentrate on what most of us are here for, to share ideas.

This from the "international markets" trader!

[Azz]

nvidia result massive 16 billion forecast going forward

Stunning results. Absolutely smashed expectations.

[bull....]

Did you buy Nvidia?

course he didnt he thinks 2 cheap cars has a better growth outlook lol

[Azz]

Yeah, pretty dangerous guy who has a lot of people fooled.

Some old types like Percy are seemingly trading off Daytras predictions of near term future rates moves. They have stated that they care and take notice of what he says.

They should know not to take any notice of anyone's predictions of future rates as nobody in history has been able to do it.

Instead they are making financial decisions based on some random internet guys take on them when they probably are not in a position to be losing a lot of money.

That's actually pretty serious......

[Azz]

course he didnt he thinks 2 cheap cars has a better growth outlook lol

hahahahahahahahaha !

[Daytr]

about what climate change and socialism anyway was your job a sell side or buy side

You too Bull?
This thread's quality is in the latrine.
Who gives a flying $%$# if my job was on the buy or sell side.
You clearly don't even understand what a trader does if you have asked that question.
On ya bike & stop being a twit.

[Azz]

You too Bull?
This thread's quality is in the latrine.
Who gives a flying $%$# if my job was on the buy or sell side.
You clearly don't even understand what a trader does if you have asked that question.
On ya bike & stop being a twit.

If by "trader", you mean sitting in the corner of your bedroom and playing on your phone, then fine. But you shouldn't imply to the people on this site that you have actual expertise behind you.

[Azz]

You too Bull?
This thread's quality is in the latrine.
Who gives a flying $%$# if my job was on the buy or sell side.
You clearly don't even understand what a trader does if you have asked that question.
On ya bike & stop being a twit.

And why did you leave your job as "international markets" trader? Why leave such a lucrative position?

[Daytr]

The economy is on fire apparently...
And yet retail sales down to the lowest per person in 4 years!
Down 1% in the June quarter, following larger falls in the March & December quarters.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/retail-spending-falls-to-lowest-level-per-person-in-four-years-where-kiwis-are-cutting-back/YAWZKQHLXVHJNHSGABD7DSKSQ4/?lid=6jo3h5rrtdj7

Feedback from an across industry group I meet with yesterday.
Portfolio manager has seen more withdrawals from large to small than they have seen in 10 years or more.

An insurance brokers has seen a large increase of policy cancelations because they simply can't afford the premiums anymore due to other cost pressures.

[bull....]

You too Bull?
This thread's quality is in the latrine.
Who gives a flying $%$# if my job was on the buy or sell side.
You clearly don't even understand what a trader does if you have asked that question.
On ya bike & stop being a twit.

out of interest that's why i asked. anyway if you were not eithier of those roles were you sales only ?

[Daytr]

out of interest that's why i asked. anyway if you were not eithier of those roles were you sales only ?

Have you ever thought that I was on both sides?
I.e a trader. But yes like most small Australasian teams there is an element of sales. I ran the business in the latter years so whilst trading was my core role, there is a lot more to it when you are managing the entire team & responsible for not only your own result but the team result.
You asked, I've answered now move on.

[Azz]

Have you ever thought that I was on both sides?
I.e a trader. But yes like most small Australasian teams there is an element of sales. I ran the business in the latter years so whilst trading was my core role, there is a lot more to it when you are managing the entire team & responsible for not only your own result but the team result.
You asked, I've answered now move on.

What happened to "the business"?

[Bobdn]

I wonder if the crime wave sweeping NZ is having an impact on retailers' bottom line? If it is, it must be incredibly hard owning a dairy or being an owner of something like The Warehouse or other similar stores.

[mike2020]

I think Briscoes mentioned it in their last report as an additional cost. The amount of additional staff required, maybe Labor see crime as proving jobs?

[Fortunecookie]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/22/business/dicks-retail-theft/index.html

Appears to the same issue in the US. Noted the comments regarding repeat offenders. I wonder if it is the same here.

Either way it's an increased cost to business regardless, at the worst time for retailers.

[ronaldson]

We should cane people for these brazen misdemeanors in my view, without regard for gender and a low age threshold, if they have offended before. It's a cheap solution with a lot of shock value, when other remedies are plainly ineffective. I suggest recidivist behavior would sharply diminish.

[causecelebre]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/22/business/dicks-retail-theft/index.html

Appears to the same issue in the US. Noted the comments regarding repeat offenders. I wonder if it is the same here.

Either way it's an increased cost to business regardless, at the worst time for retailers.


Have to laugh at the woke term "shrink". If they called a spade a spade and used the term "theft" then there stores would be seen as unsafe (who's to say they are not). Prices for these retailed goods are going to have to go up to cover the costs of "shrink" and more so to make the workplace safe for their staff. Eventually it will come to the point where it will not be viable for these business to exist as brick and mortar stores. They will eventually just turn into pickup points for online orders where the workers are behind glass. This really is part of the unravelling of parts of society. Would you take a job at Micheal Hill ?

Like NZ some of these states the companies have a presence have similar catch and release rules for thefts where the value stolen are sub $950 USD. These are treated as misdemeanours. Sound familiar?

[Fortunecookie]

I'm currently reading the booking, the tipping point. Part of it talks about the crime wave in New York during the 80/90s. They talked about the broken window theory. Basically small things that can grow to bigger problems. So they started off punishing the small crime like graffiti etc. In short it worked, but there are other theories why the reduction in crime i.e abortion was made possible many years earlier.

We live in a world of social media. Videos of ram raids are easily viewed and the perception is they are going unpunished so in some ways it makes it acceptable for the offenders. I was in Penang earlier this year and I remember walking past a jewelry store in the shopping mall. The security guard was armed with a machine gun. I guess they don't take it lightly.

Anyway I'm going off on a tangent again.
I agree with you point. Crime punishment has to be seen to deter behaviour.

[Fortunecookie]

Have to laugh at the woke term "shrink". If they called a spade a spade and used the term "theft" then there stores would be seen as unsafe (who's to say they are not). Prices for these retailed goods are going to have to go up to cover the costs of "shrink" and more so to make the workplace safe for their staff. Eventually it will come to the point where it will not be viable for these business to exist as brick and mortar stores. They will eventually just turn into pickup points for online orders where the workers are behind glass. This really is part of the unravelling of parts of society. Would you take a job at Micheal Hill ?

Like NZ some of these states the companies have a presence have similar catch and release rules for thefts where the value stolen are sub $950 USD. These are treated as misdemeanours. Sound familiar?

I have heard stories Countdown staff
including security don't bother to chase after the offenders. The offending is done right in front of them but nothing is done. I totally understand why. Threat of injury or worse is simply not worth it for the goods stolen. Ultimately cost will be passed on somewhere and/or like you say the business operations needs to update.

[Daytr]

What will hurt the corner store owner more is the huge reduction in vape outlets.
I went into a dairy a couple of weeks ago just around school closing hours & there were half a dozen school kids all froze when I.entered as they were queuing for vape products. The store owner didn't bat an eye. Very sad to see and sad that these dairy owners will pedal this ****e to very young kids.

[Azz]

What will hurt the corner store owner more is the huge reduction in vape outlets.
I went into a dairy a couple of weeks ago just around school closing hours & there were half a dozen school kids all froze when I.entered as they were queuing for vape products. The store owner didn't bat an eye. Very sad to see and sad that these dairy owners will pedal this ****e to very young kids.

You're no better, you're peddling on this site.

[Bobdn]

It's amazing how quickly NZ has deteriorated in the last 5 or so years. Feels like a different country.

We may never recover.

[Azz]

Have you ever thought that I was on both sides?
I.e a trader. But yes like most small Australasian teams there is an element of sales. I ran the business in the latter years so whilst trading was my core role, there is a lot more to it when you are managing the entire team & responsible for not only your own result but the team result.
You asked, I've answered now move on.

You're making a lot of claims. And yet when pressed, you fail to answer, and so therefore the full story is not available. What happened to "the business"? Why did you stop being an international super trader, running a team, running a trading business? What happened?

[Fortunecookie]

What will hurt the corner store owner more is the huge reduction in vape outlets.
I went into a dairy a couple of weeks ago just around school closing hours & there were half a dozen school kids all froze when I.entered as they were queuing for vape products. The store owner didn't bat an eye. Very sad to see and sad that these dairy owners will pedal this ****e to very young kids.

Yeah I thought about the other day. Using crime to eliminate a good that generates negative harm.

But what made me laugh was. The government was looking to restrict the number of vape stockist to about 600. Which I believe it is about 10% of the current numbers. Trust the govt to create a monopoly market for vapes. 2 years later we will get commerce commission report done.

I don't know what the solution is. I don't think making it prescription only will solve it either. Our health professionals are already run off their feet so why give them more workload.

[thegreatestben]

Seymour was asked this on sunday at the meeting I attended, their policy is to limit sale of vapes to liquor stores. They already have have rules around zoning to schools, they rely on the sale of restricted goods to remain in business and are unlikely to risk their ability to generate income by selling a few vapes to kids.

Seems like a pretty good solution to me?

[Daytr]

Yeah I thought about the other day. Using crime to eliminate a good that generates negative harm.

But what made me laugh was. The government was looking to restrict the number of vape stockist to about 600. Which I believe it is about 10% of the current numbers. Trust the govt to create a monopoly market for vapes. 2 years later we will get commerce commission report done.

I don't know what the solution is. I don't think making it prescription only will solve it either. Our health professionals are already run off their feet so why give them more workload.

Well making it prescription only would eliminate the kids getting hold of it so easily.
600 stores I suppose is easier for the police to monitor than 7,000.

It's absolutely rife at some schools, far more than smoking was back in my day & they are constantly puffing on them when they can.

I think the smoke free NZ is a very good initiative & I hope it's carried through with & vape products are included.

[Azz]

Seymour was asked this on sunday at the meeting I attended, their policy is to limit sale of vapes to liquor stores. They already have have rules around zoning to schools, they rely on the sale of restricted goods to remain in business and are unlikely to risk their ability to generate income by selling a few vapes to kids.

Seems like a pretty good solution to me?

It is a good solution, agree.

[thebusinessman]

You're making a lot of claims. And yet when pressed, you fail to answer, and so therefore the full story is not available. What happened to "the business"? Why did you stop being an international super trader, running a team, running a trading business? What happened?

What business is it of yours? I no longer run any of the three business I started, is my value somehow diminished just because *you* don't understand my life decisions? Noone owes you an answer that, based on your post history, you probably don't have the experience to comprehend.

[Azz]

What business is it of yours? I no longer run any of the three business I started, is my value somehow diminished just because *you* don't understand my life decisions? Noone owes you an answer that, based on your post history, you probably don't have the experience to comprehend.

"the experience to comprehend" - what does that mean lol? Is that meant to be a super-insult?

Back to the main event: This Daytr character has outlined this incredible trading background, and yet we're only getting a partial story. I find that extremely suspicious.

[Daytr]

What business is it of yours? I no longer run any of the three business I started, is my value somehow diminished just because *you* don't understand my life decisions? Noone owes you an answer that, based on your post history, you probably don't have the experience to comprehend.

You are right, but these small minds aren't worth our time. I have given a SailorRob a break in the past but like Azz they just return to type. An ugly type at that.

Happy investing. Cheers Daytr.

[Azz]

You are right, but these small minds aren't worth our time. I have given a SailorRob a break in the past but like Azz they just return to type. An ugly type at that.

Happy investing. Cheers Daytr.

Won't answer basic questions - after you told the board a subset of your alleged experience. Extremely suspicious.

[Azz]

Nvidia might save the S&P lol. Maybe Black Monday has been put off for a while!

[Bobdn]

NVIDIA is now bigger than US Steel, General Motors and IBM combined! Never thought I'd see that.

[Azz]

NVIDIA is now bigger than US Steel, General Motors and IBM combined! Never thought I'd see that.

It's an incredible story, and incredible leadership from Jensen Huang. The move to number one in A.I. is one of the greatest business completed-strategies of all time.

[Bobdn]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/government-expected-to-borrow-35pc-more-than-planned-eight-months-ago/VNDWOLXR6VD7DPFHJW7A3LATPQ/

Wow, this is disappointing. NZ's economy is in a terrible state.

Despite NVIDIA, I'm pretty sure the Black Monday thread will see plenty of action in the future.

[bull....]

fund managers are selling nz50 today raising money for nvidia purchases tonight

browsing a asx announcement yesterday the company said it saved 1000 worker hrs / mth thx to AI the last 6 mths :scared: probably powered the decision with help from nvidia

[Azz]

fund managers are selling nz50 today raising money for nvidia purchases tonight

browsing a asx announcement yesterday the company said it saved 1000 worker hrs / mth thx to AI the last 6 mths :scared: probably powered the decision with help from nvidia

What's happening - and a lot of people can't see it - is corporate functions are being switched from being done by people to being done by A.I. "plug-ins" at a datacenter. And the amount of money involved is astronomical. Nvidia at $500 is a cheap stock right now.

[Azz]

Despite NVIDIA, I'm pretty sure the Black Monday thread will see plenty of action in the future.

haha! True....

[Azz]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/government-expected-to-borrow-35pc-more-than-planned-eight-months-ago/VNDWOLXR6VD7DPFHJW7A3LATPQ/

Wow, this is disappointing. NZ's economy is in a terrible state.

"Debt blowout: Government expected to borrow $35 billion more than planned eight months ago"

Holy f%^$ !!!

[Azz]

My instinct is NZ is in big do-do right now; and a big recession coming. But who knows lol......

[Azz]

"Debt blowout: Government expected to borrow $35 billion more than planned eight months ago"

Holy f%^$ !!!

That headline can't be right lol!