Black Monday

[Daytr]

I see SailorRob still replies to virtually every one of my posts, usually with some acerbic comment.
I have him on ignore!
Talk about being fixated!

Isn't there some saying about talking to yourself?... 🤪
Why waste your time? I suppose it's because he doesn't value it.

Virtual stalkers, they do exist.

[SailorRob]

I see SailorRob still replies to virtually every one of my posts, usually with some acerbic comment.
I have him on ignore!
Talk about being fixated!

Isn't there some saying about talking to yourself?... 浪
Why waste your time? I suppose it's because he doesn't value it.

Virtual stalkers, they do exist.


Always keep an eye on the shysters.

[Ggcc]

I did not think of this.

You're right if we raise it to $100, everyone will be happy. Government deficit solved.
$55-65 for a flat white. I’m keen….. not lol

[SailorRob]

$55-65 for a flat white. I’m keen….. not lol


Yeah mate they don't get it.

Everyone should take Economics at school at least for a year.

[Panda-NZ-]

Yeah mate they don't get it.

Everyone should take Economics at school at least for a year.

High school economics relies on assumptions like rational actors, perfect competition.

= useless.

[ValueNZ]

High school economics relies on assumptions like rational actors, perfect competition.

= useless.
I suppose its easier to call a subject useless rather than take the time to try and understand it, right?
It is true that often economic models make assumptions that shouldn't be made, but it's worth understanding the models anyway. That way you can draw your own conclusion based off your own assumptions.

[Panda-NZ-]

It's so inaccurate though that budgeting skills, saving and learning about actually true things like compound interest, real terms vs nominal, inflation etc should replace it.

Then spend the last term on obtaining a driver's liscence.

[SailorRob]

It's so inaccurate though that budgeting skills, saving and learning about actually true things like compound interest, real terms vs nominal, inflation etc should replace it.


Was a while ago now but it gave me a great foundation and I found it very relevant to many real world scenarios that followed.

Probably been replaced with Marxism now I'd imagine. Sounds like you've had a bloody good dose of that.

[Panda-NZ-]

There's either an Aristotle pondering which of the 10 lemonade stands to buy from.

Or there's a Karen taking 5 seconds buying from an oligopoly based on the colour she likes.

I think I know which scenario is more likely - I'm a realist.

[SailorRob]

There's either an aristotle pondering which of the 10 lemonade stands to buy from.

Or there's a karen taking 5 seconds buying from an oligopoly based on which colour she likes.

I think I know which scenario is more likely - I'm a realist.


Don't remember any of that crap.

Went to a real school.

[ValueNZ]

Was a while ago now but it gave me a great foundation and I found it very relevant to many real world scenarios that followed.

Probably been replaced with Marxism now I'd imagine. Sounds like you've had a bloody good dose of that.
No marxism taught at high school but certainly its got its biases. Last year I failed a paper because we were being taught that government policies (all and any) were good for economic growth, and I disagreed. Also we were taught that govt policies were necessary to decrease wealth inequality. I asked my teacher what the right level of inequality was and got no real response...

[Ggcc]

It's so inaccurate though that budgeting skills, saving and learning about actually true things like compound interest, real terms vs nominal, inflation etc should replace it.

Then spend the last term on obtaining a driver's liscence.
Unfortunately things have changed a lot over the years. Kids now have hire purchase, after pay and peer pressure to have the best of the best being pushed to them, plus I am sure of a few other things. How many kids do you know under 18 have a $1,000-2000 phone? Every kid my kids invite home have one.

I would love to see some more old school returning to schools, but I feel that is not enough. Families need to earn much more than they needed 20 years ago. Im talking over $150,000 per household (with children). Also who at 25 years old can save $200,000-250,000 for a deposit on a house without the bank of mum and dad. I built my house including section for $480,000 in 2014. To build in the same area now with land and house packages, they are now 1.4 million upward. I could not have done it again at current prices, even with compounding interest.

[Panda-NZ-]

No marxism taught at high school but certainly its got its biases. Last year I failed a paper because we were being taught that government policies (all and any) were good for economic growth, and I disagreed.

Young man I hope you came back at them with a peer-reviewed journal article.

hint: https://scholar.google.com/ (look for two authors rather than one)

It will be useful for uni.

[Panda-NZ-]

Also who at 25 years old can save $200,000-250,000 for a deposit on a house without the bank of mum and dad. I built my house including section for $480,000 in 2014. To build in the same area now with land and house packages, they are now 1.4 million upward. I could not have done it again at current prices, even with compounding interest.

During the final two weeks.. how to book a flight to Australia.

You could slog it out with flatmates or live with parents. Rent is the main issue, but even with that covered it's still hard.

[SailorRob]

Unfortunately things have changed a lot over the years. Kids now have hire purchase, after pay and peer pressure to have the best of the best being pushed to them, plus I am sure of a few other things. How many kids do you know under 18 have a $1,000-2000 phone? Every kid my kids invite home have one.

I would love to see some more old school returning to schools, but I feel that is not enough. Families need to earn much more than they needed 20 years ago. Im talking over $150,000 per household (with children). Also who at 25 years old can save $200,000-250,000 for a deposit on a house without the bank of mum and dad. I built my house including section for $480,000 in 2014. To build in the same area now with land and house packages, they are now 1.4 million upward. I could not have done it again at current prices, even with compounding interest.


I remember a kid at school in the 90's who was going out and hire purchasing stuff just so that he could establish a credit record so that he could borrow more. We didn't even know what he was talking about at the time (credit record etc) He must have been told by his parents to do it.

[SailorRob]

Young man I hope you came back at them with a peer-reviewed journal article.

hint: https://scholar.google.com/ (look for two authors rather than one)

It will be useful for uni.


Be like needing a peer reviewed article stating gravity pulls stuff down.

No need...

[SailorRob]

Young man I hope you came back at them with a peer-reviewed journal article.

hint: https://scholar.google.com/ (look for two authors rather than one)

It will be useful for uni.

Don't assume ValueNZ is a man. There are over 4 million separate genders now. I read it in a peer reviewed journal.

[Panda-NZ-]

Don't assume ValueNZ is a man. There are over 4 million separate genders now. I read it in a peer reviewed journal.

I already used "them" in place of a gender assumption for the teacher.

[SailorRob]

Rich countries are those whose governments have policies which encourage the essential creativity of man who in order to succeed must work with others to produce goods and services which people choose to buy.

[BlackPeter]

Don't assume ValueNZ is a man. There are over 4 million separate genders now. I read it in a peer reviewed journal.

This thread is clearly getting a playground for trolls. Quite sad to see all this rubbish heaped up in a share traders forum. Any chance the offenders could use in future their private toilet for their droppings instead of smearing them all over the internet?

[causecelebre]

. Deleted...

[winner69]

Deleted …thought better of it ……

[Daytr]

This thread is clearly getting a playground for trolls. Quite sad to see all this rubbish heaped up in a share traders forum. Any chance the offenders could use in future their private toilet for their droppings instead of smearing them all over the internet?

Agreed but probably a futile request.
There is one troll in particular who lowers the tone for all and seems to need to respond to anything and everything and usually on the attack. Pity those who monitor this site don't bother policing it.

I find other threads on this sight far more constructive.

[causecelebre]

Deleted …thought better of it ……

haha yup sometimes you just don't need to share

[ValueNZ]

Agreed but probably a futile request.
There is one troll in particular who lowers the tone for all and seems to need to respond to anything and everything and usually on the attack. Pity those who monitor this site don't bother policing it.

I find other threads on this sight far more constructive.
Would you prefer posts be censored if they could be construed as hurtful in anyway?

[Daytr]

Would you prefer posts be censored if they could be construed as hurtful in anyway?

I would prefer that posts were constructive and about the markets and various stocks rather than measuring various appendages.

[Bobdn]

The NZX50 seems to be dominated by just a handful of shares. FPH 13 per cent of the index for example. EBOS, 6 per cent.

Have I got that right?

Wow, such concentration.

Still, most people would only have a fraction of their money in NZ shares I'm guessing. So nothing to worry about.

[Daytr]

The S&P NZX50 has a cap per holding of 5%. But you are right in regards the percentage size of FPH in relation to the entire market capitalization of the companies in the the NZX50

[alokdhir]

The S&P NZX50 has a cap per holding of 5%. But you are right in regards the percentage size of FPH in relation to the entire market capitalization of the companies in the the NZX50

The cap u talking about is for FNZ fund not for index ...Index is based on market cap of the company ...so 13% for FPH is right ...

https://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds/new-zealand-shares/nzg (https://smartshares.co.nz/types-of-funds/new-zealand-shares/nzg)

NZG representative of true NZX50 index ...it has same weighting as index as its real index fund not FNZ

[Daytr]

Correct & is what I was trying to convey, probably poorly.

[alokdhir]

Correct & is what I was trying to convey, probably poorly.

NZX50 Portfolio Index which is tracked by FNZ has a cap of 5% ...but its not commonly known ...we all talk about NZX50G index ..shown as NZX50 on NZX website

[SailorRob]

Correct & is what I was trying to convey, probably poorly.

What you said was completely wrong...

[SailorRob]

NZX50 Portfolio Index which is tracked by FNZ has a cap of 5% ...but its not commonly known ...we all talk about NZX50G index ..shown as NZX50 on NZX website

Yes and the NZX50G is also totally different from other global indexes.

It's not a capital index at all.

[alokdhir]

Yes and the NZX50G is also totally different from other global indexes.

It's not a capital index at all.

Its a Gross Index in which dividends are also included ...why its unique for NZ market as traditionally NZ stocks especially included in index were more dividend payers then growth oriented like power companies etc ...so to represent true potential of NZ market they devised this Gross index unlike NZX50C which is capital Index but not commonly tracked too like Portfolio Index with 5% cap on any stock was divised for layman's investment purpose .

FNZ has tracked NZX50P and it is better way to invest in NZ markets then pure NZX50G tracker NZG with full weighting of heavy weights

If one has to do index investing then FNZ is a good option imo

[SailorRob]

Its a Gross Index in which dividends are also included ...why its unique for NZ market as traditionally NZ stocks especially included in index were more dividend payers then growth oriented like power companies etc ...so to represent true potential of NZ market they devised this Gross index unlike NZX50C which is capital Index but not commonly tracked too like Portfolio Index with 5% cap on any stock was divised for layman's investment purpose .

FNZ has tracked NZX50P and it is better way to invest in NZ markets then pure NZX50G tracker NZG with full weighting of heavy weights

If one has to do index investing then FNZ is a good option imo

Yeah not only includes dividends but reinvested dividends.

The reason the G index was invented was very disingenuous, at the time the NZ market, as it still is, was under the cloud of 1987. Was designed to pull retail back in. Gaynor wrote all about it.

[SailorRob]

Its a Gross Index in which dividends are also included ...why its unique for NZ market as traditionally NZ stocks especially included in index were more dividend payers then growth oriented like power companies etc ...so to represent true potential of NZ market they devised this Gross index unlike NZX50C which is capital Index but not commonly tracked too like Portfolio Index with 5% cap on any stock was divised for layman's investment purpose .

FNZ has tracked NZX50P and it is better way to invest in NZ markets then pure NZX50G tracker NZG with full weighting of heavy weights

If one has to do index investing then FNZ is a good option imo

FNZ a good option yes.

Over 95% of investors here will not beat FNZ over time. Perhaps 98%

[alokdhir]

Yeah not only includes dividends but reinvested dividends.

The reason the G index was invented was very disingenuous, at the time the NZ market, as it still is, was under the cloud of 1987. Was designed to pull retail back in. Gaynor wrote all about it.

IMHO ....NZ stocks are much better placed then its counter parts eg in US markets on at least one important parameter which shows potential of a country's stock market ...Total Market Cap / Country GDP ...lower the figure ...better the potential ahead ...I am told

[SailorRob]

IMHO ....NZ stocks are much better placed then its counter parts eg in US markets on at least one important parameter which shows potential of a country's stock market ...Total Market Cap / Country GDP ...lower the figure ...better the potential ahead ...I am told

Well.

Look at total market cap to GDP of the other markets around the world and place your bets...

NZ houses are priced at nearly 5 x our GDP. America about 1.6 x from memory.

One thing for sure is that the next Apple, Google, Facebook, nvidia, amazon won't be coming from NZ.

NZ market is pretty pricey on what it can earn in future and so is the US in aggregate.

[alokdhir]

Well.

Look at total market cap to GDP of the other markets around the world and place your bets...

NZ houses are priced at nearly 5 x our GDP. America about 1.6 x from memory.

One thing for sure is that the next Apple, Google, Facebook, nvidia, amazon won't be coming from NZ.

NZ market is pretty pricey on what it can earn in future and so is the US in aggregate.

So NZ housing will contract ahead and NZX stocks market cap shud go up . That figure total stock market cap / GDP ...also shows poor retail participation ...thus pathway to growth ahead as more and more retail participants bring their money into stocks ...also with NZ rental vs Stocks now firmly in favour of stocks for first time NZ ...it shud help improve depth of our markets ...lastly Kiwisavers doing their bit to add to local stocks too

[SailorRob]

So NZ housing will contract ahead and NZX stocks market cap shud go up . That figure total stock market cap / GDP ...also shows poor retail participation ...thus pathway to growth ahead as more and more retail participants bring their money into stocks ...also with NZ rental vs Stocks now firmly in favour of stocks for first time NZ ...it shud help improve depth of our markets ...lastly Kiwisavers doing their bit to add to local stocks too

More retail into stocks just means lower forward returns though. Already expensive as it is.

Need more earnings, bigger better companies.

[kiora]

So NZ housing will contract ahead and NZX stocks market cap shud go up . That figure total stock market cap / GDP ...also shows poor retail participation ...thus pathway to growth ahead as more and more retail participants bring their money into stocks ...also with NZ rental vs Stocks now firmly in favour of stocks for first time NZ ...it shud help improve depth of our markets ...lastly Kiwisavers doing their bit to add to local stocks too

Only a limited amount of Kiwisaver (<40% ?) is invested in NZ
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/non-banks-and-other-financial-institutions/kiwisaver-assets-by-sector

[alokdhir]

Only a limited amount of Kiwisaver (<40% ?) is invested in NZ
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/non-banks-and-other-financial-institutions/kiwisaver-assets-by-sector

Still its better then before ...I know they do worldwide investing but some part does come to NZ stocks and everything helps !

[SailorRob]

Still its better then before ...I know they do worldwide investing but some part does come to NZ stocks and everything helps !

It hurts if it drives up prices.

[ValueNZ]

Rich countries are those whose governments have policies which encourage the essential creativity of man who in order to succeed must work with others to produce goods and services which people choose to buy.
I agree. The way incentive structures are set up in society are very important in order to be prosperous. Unfortunately there exist many perverse incentives in New Zealand which will limit our growth over the long run.

[Valuegrowth]

Boring is beautiful .

https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2023/03/28/how-to-beat-the-market-with-boring-stocks/?sh=1ebc8a8f3f9b (https://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2023/03/28/how-to-beat-the-market-with-boring-stocks/?sh=1ebc8a8f3f9b)

[bull....]

mentioned couple days ago be good if we had market consolidate , so far so good. might be holding pattern for big week next week
CPI , FED Meeting

[Valuegrowth]

Going forward there can be more and more tech sell-off. Overvalued assets haven't adjusted to reasonable value yet.Time has come for me to hunt undervalued, overlooked stocks(tomorrow's darlings)?

[Fortunecookie]

Going forward there can be more and more tech sell-off. Overvalued assets haven't adjusted to reasonable value yet.

I'm curious how you define value. Tech stocks typically incorporate plenty of growth in their valuations. So when you say value, are you talking no growth, lower growth or strictly hard assets.

[SailorRob]

NZ market exactly where it was 4 years ago...

[alokdhir]

NZ market exactly where it was 4 years ago...

That tells a lot about country and its economic state ...Govt shud wake up to bring some real growth in economy which will eventually help companies grow .

But on another thought ...it maybe to due to the fact also that most of the index is low growth companies ...people like dividends here ( though included in levels ) but main point is we have a dearth of real growth companies like MFT and FPH ...

But after a long inflation fight ...market will readjust to much higher levels ahead ...just to compensate for the new inflated prices of everything from replacement costs to inflated revenues etc .

Look forward to 25-50% upmroves in next 2-5 years for this adjustments

[SailorRob]

That tells a lot about country and its economic state ...Govt shud wake up to bring some real growth in economy which will eventually help companies grow .

But on another thought ...it maybe to due to the fact also that most of the index is low growth companies ...people like dividends here ( though included in levels ) but main point is we have a dearth of real growth companies like MFT and FPH ...

But after a long inflation fight ...market will readjust to much higher levels ahead ...just to compensate for the new inflated prices of everything from replacement costs to inflated revenues etc .

Look forward to 25-50% upmroves in next 2-5 years for this adjustments


Good point but we don't eat nominal returns!

I never did understand NZX ok performance previous but think a large part was the State asset sell offs

Most of the index is low growth - but perhaps not because people like dividends, there just isn't the opportunity for growth, maybe bit of both.

She's doe 6.4% CAGR over last decade. Plus dividends.

[alokdhir]

Good point but we don't eat nominal returns!

I never did understand NZX ok performance previous but think a large part was the State asset sell offs

Most of the index is low growth - but perhaps not because people like dividends, there just isn't the opportunity for growth, maybe bit of both.

She's doe 6.4% CAGR over last decade. Plus dividends.

What u need to have a very successful growth oriented multi national business is missing in NZ in a big way ...we have dearth of high quality / motivated / hard working work force as our Govt promotes or at least condones that its OK to steal rather then work harder in difficult times . Cost of living is being justified for total lawlessness effecting retail businesses in particular and public morale in general . Who will like to start new business in such a atmosphere ...where to get workforce who are not just happy to enjoy our country but to have growth dreams for which they are ready to put the hard yards ...I wont ...even if I had a good idea ...U have lots of ideas ...try and see the futility due to mainly the attitude of masses . We have great country as we have great weather and beautiful views but we need improve the quality of our work force to actually have growth oriented start ups . We need improve our education system rather than trying to impart free average quality education to all ...most dont even want it thus never get it also . US uni's attract worldwide talent who end up working for US ...we are loosing even the ones who wanted to come to NZ for its natural beauty as they too scared of the petty crime for which no one is concerned ...its becoming a norm and slowly slowly it will almost normal and costs will be added for poor helpless law-abiding citizens to bear . Our many years of "KIND " Govt has been most unkind to businesses and general masses . Singapore attracts higher quality immigrants then NZ as it has impeccable law and order mandate though it compares very poorly vs NZ living

[Panda-NZ-]

I'll keep saying it - we need to join Australia and negotiate good terms for us.

NZ is just botched up, and obssessed with property.

[SailorRob]

What u need to have a very successful growth oriented multi national business is missing in NZ in a big way ...we have dearth of high quality / motivated / hard working work force as our Govt promotes or at least condones that its OK to steal rather then work harder in difficult times . Cost of living is being justified for total lawlessness effecting retail businesses in particular and public morale in general . Who will like to start new business in such a atmosphere ...where to get workforce who are not just happy to enjoy our country but to have growth dreams for which they are ready to put the hard yards ...I wont ...even if I had a good idea ...U have lots of ideas ...try and see the futility due to mainly the attitude of masses . We have great country as we have great weather and beautiful views but we need improve the quality of our work force to actually have growth oriented start ups . We need improve our education system rather than trying to impart free average quality education to all ...most dont even want it thus never get it also . US uni's attract worldwide talent who end up working for US ...we are loosing even the ones who wanted to come to NZ for its natural beauty as they too scared of the petty crime for which no one is concerned ...its becoming a norm and slowly slowly it will almost normal and costs will be added for poor helpless law-abiding citizens to bear . Our many years of "KIND " Govt has been most unkind to businesses and general masses . Singapore attracts higher quality immigrants then NZ as it has impeccable law and order mandate though it compares very poorly vs NZ living

Such a good post, could benefit from some structure. ChatGPT rewrote below.


New Zealand is lacking crucial elements for a highly successful, growth-oriented multinational business. We are facing a significant shortage of high-quality, motivated, and hardworking workforce. Unfortunately, our government seems to promote or, at the very least, tolerate a culture of choosing theft over putting in the effort during challenging times. This situation has led to a justification of the high cost of living, resulting in rampant lawlessness that particularly affects retail businesses and overall public morale.

It becomes challenging to envision starting a new business in an environment where finding a workforce dedicated not just to enjoying our country but also to pursuing ambitious growth goals, with a willingness to put in the necessary hard work, seems improbable. Personally, I would not embark on such a venture, even if I had a brilliant idea. While there are plenty of ideas, their futility becomes apparent due to the prevailing attitudes among the masses.


Undoubtedly, New Zealand boasts a remarkable country with beautiful views and great weather. However, to foster growth-oriented startups, we must focus on enhancing the quality of our workforce. Rather than attempting to provide free, mediocre education to everyone, we should strive to improve our education system. Most individuals don't even desire such an education and consequently never receive it.

In contrast, universities in the United States attract talent from around the world, and these individuals often end up working there. Even those who initially desired to come to New Zealand for its natural beauty are now apprehensive due to the prevalence of petty crimes that go unnoticed. If this issue continues unchecked, it will eventually become the norm, burdening law-abiding citizens with added costs.

Unfortunately, our government, which has long touted its kindness, has been unkind to both businesses and the general population. Singapore, despite its inferior living standards when compared to New Zealand, manages to attract higher-quality immigrants thanks to its unwavering commitment to law and order

[alokdhir]

Such a good post, could benefit from some structure. ChatGPT rewrote below.


New Zealand is lacking crucial elements for a highly successful, growth-oriented multinational business. We are facing a significant shortage of high-quality, motivated, and hardworking workforce. Unfortunately, our government seems to promote or, at the very least, tolerate a culture of choosing theft over putting in the effort during challenging times. This situation has led to a justification of the high cost of living, resulting in rampant lawlessness that particularly affects retail businesses and overall public morale.

It becomes challenging to envision starting a new business in an environment where finding a workforce dedicated not just to enjoying our country but also to pursuing ambitious growth goals, with a willingness to put in the necessary hard work, seems improbable. Personally, I would not embark on such a venture, even if I had a brilliant idea. While there are plenty of ideas, their futility becomes apparent due to the prevailing attitudes among the masses.


Undoubtedly, New Zealand boasts a remarkable country with beautiful views and great weather. However, to foster growth-oriented startups, we must focus on enhancing the quality of our workforce. Rather than attempting to provide free, mediocre education to everyone, we should strive to improve our education system. Most individuals don't even desire such an education and consequently never receive it.

In contrast, universities in the United States attract talent from around the world, and these individuals often end up working there. Even those who initially desired to come to New Zealand for its natural beauty are now apprehensive due to the prevalence of petty crimes that go unnoticed. If this issue continues unchecked, it will eventually become the norm, burdening law-abiding citizens with added costs.

Unfortunately, our government, which has long touted its kindness, has been unkind to both businesses and the general population. Singapore, despite its inferior living standards when compared to New Zealand, manages to attract higher-quality immigrants thanks to its unwavering commitment to law and order

:t_up::t_up::t_up:

[Panda-NZ-]

The United States has significant issues though (particuarly with all the guns and crime you complain about). I prefer europe.

If Russia comes under new management then in theory that region may become the new world power.

[alokdhir]

The United States has significant issues though, I'd rather follow Europe.

If Russia comes under new management then in theory they could become the new world power.

Point was they go to US for the quality of their Uni education and end up working there ...thus US gets best worldwide talent which makes Googles / Microsofts etc ....despite its issues ...U need have something world class to attract world class people . Singapore has law and order . We have natural beauty and climate but now we have world class lawlessness !!!

[Panda-NZ-]

Wouldn't you be afraid of being shot in a mall by a 16 year old who lost a fortnite game :p

Even if your rich you have to share roads with the higher proportion of imbiciles where safety is a low priority.

[Daytr]

Point was they go to US for the quality of their Uni education and end up working there ...thus US gets best worldwide talent which makes Googles / Microsofts etc ....despite its issues ...U need have something world class to attract world class people . Singapore has law and order . We have natural beauty and climate but now we have world class lawlessness !!!

Yes and you pay a fortune for that quality of education in the US, unless you are sponsored in some way. Although NZ is in a crime wave we don't have school mass shootings etc.

I didn't see National investing in education, in fact quite the opposite they let school buildings rot. Both parties need to pull their finger out and start investing effectively in NZs future.

For a small country we do pretty well in regards developing companies that export technology. Xero, Rocket Lab come to mind. We can always do better however it's always going to be hard to compete with the likes of the US & Singapore etc.

We need to get away from being a mostly primary industry exporter. It doesn't seem to bode well for the domestic market, nor add the value to economy it should.

Our competitive advantage besides our climate for growing things, was our clean green image, however we know this to be a lie & it's all smoke & mirrors. Instead we we t down the path of growth at any cost, be it farming or tourism.

It's a pity because this is where NZ could brand itself, with higher value, green products for the world market.

[alokdhir]

Yes and you pay a fortune for that quality of education in the US, unless you are sponsored in some way. Although NZ is in a crime wave we don't have school mass shootings etc.

I didn't see National investing in education, in fact quite the opposite they let school buildings rot. Both parties need to pull their finger out and start investing effectively in NZs future.

For a small country we do pretty well in regards developing companies that export technology. Xero, Rocket Lab come to mind. We can always do better however it's always going to be hard to compete with the likes of the US & Singapore etc.

We need to get away from being a mostly primary industry exporter. It doesn't seem to bode well for the domestic market, nor add the value to economy it should.

Our competitive advantage besides our climate for growing things, was our clean green image, however we know this to be a lie & it's all smoke & mirrors. Instead we we t down the path of growth at any cost, be it farming or tourism.

It's a pity because this is where NZ could brand itself, with higher value, green products for the world market.

Agree with u ...but will like to add here that most of the brightest talent including the current Google CEO went to US uni on full scholarships plus aid providing living costs too ...being alumni of same uni group as him ...my batch had 250+ students graduating as BTechs ...almost 240 landed in US unis on scholarships and aid ...US unis attract cream of many countries that route ...and most stay and grow phenomenally eg Mr Pichai and so so many others . Why US uni was the first choice of best ...as they were best quality and most prestigious education providers and US being the land of opportunity and growth

Yes now many wont be going to US unis due to uncertainty around where shooting can happen ...so US will also suffer from law and order problems

[Bobdn]

NZ has really just become like some mid sized Democrat run city in the United States.

Now, I'm not saying that's a bad thing, it just makes it difficult to invest here.

Anyway, I'll let everyone get back to their old people's homes and power company investments.

[BlackPeter]

Such a good post, could benefit from some structure. ChatGPT rewrote below.


New Zealand is lacking crucial elements for a highly successful, growth-oriented multinational business. We are facing a significant shortage of high-quality, motivated, and hardworking workforce. Unfortunately, our government seems to promote or, at the very least, tolerate a culture of choosing theft over putting in the effort during challenging times. This situation has led to a justification of the high cost of living, resulting in rampant lawlessness that particularly affects retail businesses and overall public morale.

It becomes challenging to envision starting a new business in an environment where finding a workforce dedicated not just to enjoying our country but also to pursuing ambitious growth goals, with a willingness to put in the necessary hard work, seems improbable. Personally, I would not embark on such a venture, even if I had a brilliant idea. While there are plenty of ideas, their futility becomes apparent due to the prevailing attitudes among the masses.


Undoubtedly, New Zealand boasts a remarkable country with beautiful views and great weather. However, to foster growth-oriented startups, we must focus on enhancing the quality of our workforce. Rather than attempting to provide free, mediocre education to everyone, we should strive to improve our education system. Most individuals don't even desire such an education and consequently never receive it.

In contrast, universities in the United States attract talent from around the world, and these individuals often end up working there. Even those who initially desired to come to New Zealand for its natural beauty are now apprehensive due to the prevalence of petty crimes that go unnoticed. If this issue continues unchecked, it will eventually become the norm, burdening law-abiding citizens with added costs.

Unfortunately, our government, which has long touted its kindness, has been unkind to both businesses and the general population. Singapore, despite its inferior living standards when compared to New Zealand, manages to attract higher-quality immigrants thanks to its unwavering commitment to law and order

Clearly - anybody who calls the living conditions in Singapore inferior to New Zealand does either not know Singapore or does not know New Zealand or does not know both.

In general are wages for low qualified jobs in Singapore comparable with NZ, while qualified jobs are much better paid than here. Cost of living (like food, groceries) is lower (with some exceptions - alcohol is dearer) - and even housing is cheaper for the residents and comparable (with NZ) for foreigners.

Just a life style block would be a harder to get hold of in Singapore.

That's the thing with Chat GPT - it sounds good, but the data it provides are unverified and often plain false. But I guess in this case it was rubbish in - rubbish out.

[SailorRob]

Clearly - anybody who calls the living conditions in Singapore inferior to New Zealand does either not know Singapore or does not know New Zealand or does not know both.

In general are wages for low qualified jobs in Singapore comparable with NZ, while qualified jobs are much better paid than here. Cost of living (like food, groceries) is lower (with some exceptions - alcohol is dearer) - and even housing is cheaper for the residents and comparable (with NZ) for foreigners.

Just a life style block would be a harder to get hold of in Singapore.

That's the thing with Chat GPT - it sounds good, but the data it provides are unverified and often plain false. But I guess in this case it was rubbish in - rubbish out.

Agreed, but depends on your definition too somewhat.

[alokdhir]

Clearly - anybody who calls the living conditions in Singapore inferior to New Zealand does either not know Singapore or does not know New Zealand or does not know both.

In general are wages for low qualified jobs in Singapore comparable with NZ, while qualified jobs are much better paid than here. Cost of living (like food, groceries) is lower (with some exceptions - alcohol is dearer) - and even housing is cheaper for the residents and comparable (with NZ) for foreigners.

Just a life style block would be a harder to get hold of in Singapore.

I had lived in Singapore for few years during my working life ...I still think on a whole NZ offers better quality of life ...my reason for being here but then its a subjective opinion of mine ...but I do know Singapore living very well mate

Apartment living , very poor climate , super small country ...u can be out of it in 30 minutes driving end to end etc , Super expensive cars as they regulate registrations for traffic management etc , best law and order and good opportunities for qualified candidates

Govt supplied or offered apartments are small sized clusters ...most not happy with them but its a very controlled market due to scarcity of land . Living in houses like Auckland is dream only as costs are prohibitive ...Life style blocks in Singapore ? I didnt know they existed ...maybe u move in super high society ... lol

"The majority of Singapore residents live in subsidised public housing flats built by the Housing and Development Board (HDB). While living in a HDB provides a good quality of life, it is often more crowded and in that same vein noisier."

https://www.singsaver.com.sg/blog/how-much-do-you-really-need-to-afford-a-landed-property-in-singapore (https://www.singsaver.com.sg/blog/how-much-do-you-really-need-to-afford-a-landed-property-in-singapore)

[SailorRob]

I had lived in Singapore for few years during my working life ...I still think on a whole NZ offers better quality of life ...my reason for being here but then its a subjective opinion of mine ...but I do know Singapore living very well mate

Apartment living , very poor climate , super small country ...u can be out of it in 30 minutes driving end to end etc , Super expensive cars as they regulate registrations for traffic management etc , best law and order and good opportunities for qualified candidates

Govt supplied or offered apartments are small sized clusters ...most not happy with them but its a very controlled market due to scarcity of land . Living in houses like Auckland is dream only as costs are prohibitive ...Life style blocks in Singapore ? I didnt know they existed ...maybe u move in super high society ...lol

Oh man. Great post.

BlackPeter going to have to put that in his pipe and smoke it on down.

[BlackPeter]

I had lived in Singapore for few years during my working life ...I still think on a whole NZ offers better quality of life ...my reason for being here but then its a subjective opinion of mine ...but I do know Singapore living very well mate

Apartment living , very poor climate , super small country ...u can be out of it in 30 minutes driving end to end etc , Super expensive cars as they regulate registrations for traffic management etc , best law and order and good opportunities for qualified candidates

Govt supplied or offered apartments are small sized clusters ...most not happy with them but its a very controlled market due to scarcity of land . Living in houses like Auckland is dream only as costs are prohibitive ...Life style blocks in Singapore ? I didnt know they existed ...maybe u move in super high society ...lol

Absolutely, there are things which are better in Singapore and there are things better in NZ - and it depends on the individual what (s)he values more. This is not the point.

Some people might find the quality of life better over there, and others over here.

I was reacting to the phrase "Singapore, despite its inferior living standards when compared to New Zealand"

which is clearly false ... unless you mix up "Quality of life" (which is a very subjective thing) with "standard of living" (which most people define within the frame work of housing conditions, access to affordable quality food, access to education and medical care).

[SailorRob]

Absolutely, there are things which are better in Singapore and there are things better in NZ - and it depends on the individual what (s)he values more. This is not the point.

Some people might find the quality of life better over there, and others over here.

I was reacting to the phrase "Singapore, despite its inferior living standards when compared to New Zealand"

which is clearly false ... unless you mix up "Quality of life" (which is a very subjective thing) with "standard of living" (which most people define within the frame work of housing conditions, access to affordable quality food, access to education and medical care).


Not very convincing. Until you've lived in both places like alokdhir you wouldn't know as much as them.

[BlackPeter]

Oh man. Great post.

BlackPeter going to have to put that in his pipe and smoke it on down.

I think you need to learn to read and digest what you read before you comment. Most things you say appear incredibly immature.

Ah yes - and I don't smoke :) ;

[BlackPeter]

Not very convincing. Until you've lived in both places like alokdhir you wouldn't know as much as them.

I do have family in Singapore and visit them frequently. I do know how it is to live there. You clearly don't.

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;1006925]Absolutely, there are things which are better in Singapore and there are things better in NZ - and it depends on the individual what (s)he values more. This is not the point.

Some people might find the quality of life better over there, and others over here.

I was reacting to the phrase "Singapore, despite its inferior living standards when compared to New Zealand"

which is clearly false ... unless you mix up "Quality of life" (which is a very subjective thing) with "standard of living" (which most people define within the frame work of housing conditions, access to affordable quality food, access to education and medical care).[/QUOTE

https://www.singsaver.com.sg/blog/how-much-do-you-really-need-to-afford-a-landed-property-in-singapore (https://www.singsaver.com.sg/blog/how-much-do-you-really-need-to-afford-a-landed-property-in-singapore)

Having same amount of money ....I preferred NZ over Sg for many reasons ...Quality of life / Atmosphere for children ...its too high pressure for children in sg ...

I cud not dream of buying a 1000sq meter / 450sqmtrs covered area in any area in sg while I cud afford that in great suburb of AKL ...our most expensive city

And the lists goes on and on ...

So for me it wud have become inferior quality of life for my family if I had chosen to immigrate to SG ...but then who immigrates to SG for retiring while many do to NZ ...that shud count towards something

[Joshuatree]

Please enlighten us as to what your 'one and only' 50 bagger was Vlauegrowth.
Yeah,wot the hell,you didn't share the love on SHARE trader??! :):):(:),You havnt come down yet?Was it Golden Tip Tops?

[workingdad]

Yes and you pay a fortune for that quality of education in the US, unless you are sponsored in some way. Although NZ is in a crime wave we don't have school mass shootings etc.

I didn't see National investing in education, in fact quite the opposite they let school buildings rot. Both parties need to pull their finger out and start investing effectively in NZs future.

For a small country we do pretty well in regards developing companies that export technology. Xero, Rocket Lab come to mind. We can always do better however it's always going to be hard to compete with the likes of the US & Singapore etc.

We need to get away from being a mostly primary industry exporter. It doesn't seem to bode well for the domestic market, nor add the value to economy it should.

Our competitive advantage besides our climate for growing things, was our clean green image, however we know this to be a lie & it's all smoke & mirrors. Instead we we t down the path of growth at any cost, be it farming or tourism.

It's a pity because this is where NZ could brand itself, with higher value, green products for the world market.

Not to mention our school education is a joke. NCEA useless, current college students between Covid and strike action have lost nigh on two terms worth of education in 3 years. The quality for the rest of the time is churning out many that can barely read and write. I don’t hold much hope for eduction or health for some time….

[Valuegrowth]

https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/business-sustainability-strategies
WHY YOU NEED SUSTAINABILITY IN YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY

[Valuegrowth]

These days tech stocks are everybody's darlings. Not for me. I prefer out of favour stocks with temporary issues now. Boring stocks are very beautiful. Better to buy boring stocks at beautiful prices than chasing hot stocks of today. I expect some kind of pull back in markets. It’s not a rocket science to identify value stocks. Are we going to pay PE ratio of 30, 50, 80 and 1000 for stocks and lose money? Besides, Growth companies cannot continue high growth continuously for number of years.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-companies-that-shut-down-went-bankrupt-in-last-decade-2019-11
The 13 biggest tech company failures in the last 10 years

(https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/marketwatch-first-take--nvidia-created-an-ai-bubble--and-software-stocks-are-already-paying-the-price-12513423)https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/marketwatch-first-take--nvidia-created-an-ai-bubble--and-software-stocks-are-already-paying-the-price-12513423
MarketWatch First Take: Nvidia created an AI bubble, and software stocks are already paying the price

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tech-stocks-svb-banking-crisis-rally-overvalued-markets-investing-sp500-2023-3 (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tech-stocks-svb-banking-crisis-rally-overvalued-markets-investing-sp500-2023-3)
Tech stocks are now among the most overvalued


I'm curious how you define value. Tech stocks typically incorporate plenty of growth in their valuations. So when you say value, are you talking no growth, lower growth or strictly hard assets.

[bull....]

THE BULL.... REPORT



Improved Stock Market Breadth Reflects Broad-Based Market Strength


Date: [09/06/2023]


The stock market has exhibited a notable improvement in breadth, indicating a more robust and broad-based market rally. The recent uptick in breadth signifies a healthier market environment with increased investor confidence and widespread optimism.


Expanded Sector Participation: A significant factor contributing to the improved stock market breadth is the broad participation of sectors in the rally. Previously, market gains may have been concentrated in a few sectors, but the recent trend showcases a more widespread distribution of strength. Multiple sectors, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary, have witnessed positive performance, suggesting a broad-based market rally.


Small and Mid-Cap Stocks Outperforming: Another encouraging sign is the outperformance of small and mid-cap stocks. These companies, often considered an indicator of overall market health, have shown resilience and positive price action. The strength in smaller companies indicates that investors are willing to take on more risk, which is often seen as a positive sign for market breadth.


Reduced Concentration Risks: The improved market breadth has helped alleviate concerns related to concentration risks. In the past, when a few large-cap stocks dominated market gains, it raised concerns about the vulnerability of the market to the performance of a handful of companies. The broader participation of stocks reduces this risk and creates a more balanced market landscape.


Rising Number of Advancing Stocks: An increase in the number of advancing stocks versus declining stocks is another measure of improved market breadth. When a larger proportion of stocks is advancing, it indicates a healthier market environment with more buying interest across various stocks and sectors. This broader participation enhances overall market stability and resilience.


Positive Market Sentiment: The improvement in stock market breadth reflects a positive shift in investor sentiment. As more stocks participate in the upward movement, it suggests that investors are increasingly confident in the market's overall trajectory and are more willing to deploy capital across a wider range of opportunities.


Looking Ahead:
The enhanced stock market breadth bodes well for the sustainability of the market rally. A broader participation of stocks and sectors signifies a healthier and more resilient market environment. However, market conditions are subject to change, and investors should continue to monitor indicators of breadth, sector performance, and market sentiment for a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics.


Conclusion:
The stock market has witnessed an improvement in breadth, signaling a more robust and broad-based market rally. Increased participation from various sectors, outperformance of small and mid-cap stocks, reduced concentration risks, and a rising number of advancing stocks all contribute to the positive market breadth. These factors indicate a healthier market environment and suggest a greater level of investor confidence. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant and employ prudent investment strategies while considering their individual financial goals and risk tolerance.

all hail the AI

[alokdhir]

First high value jobs already replaced by AI model ....Hedge Fund Managers ...thats what I just heard on CNBC ...interview with a Hedge Fund manager whose Chief Investment Officer is a AI model only ...wow ...as per him AI can learn faster and are more smarter at picking up trends and stocks

[winner69]

First high value jobs already replaced by AI model ....Hedge Fund Managers ...thats what I just heard on CNBC ...interview with a Hedge Fund manager whose Chief Investment Officer is a AI model only ...wow ...as per him AI can learn faster and are more smarter at picking up trends and stocks

We are doomed …..end of the world is nigh

[bull....]

First high value jobs already replaced by AI model ....Hedge Fund Managers ...thats what I just heard on CNBC ...interview with a Hedge Fund manager whose Chief Investment Officer is a AI model only ...wow ...as per him AI can learn faster and are more smarter at picking up trends and stocks


The role of AI in the field of fund management has been growing, and it has the potential to transform certain aspects of the industry. However, it is unlikely that fund managers will be completely replaced by AI. Instead, AI is more likely to be used as a tool to augment and support human decision-making.
AI can analyze vast amounts of data, identify patterns, and generate insights at a speed and scale that surpass human capabilities. This can be beneficial in areas such as data analysis, risk assessment, and portfolio optimization. AI-powered algorithms can assist fund managers in making more informed investment decisions and improving portfolio performance.
However, there are certain aspects of fund management that require human judgment, intuition, and experience. Fund managers possess the ability to interpret qualitative information, consider complex market dynamics, and adjust investment strategies based on changing conditions. Additionally, they provide personalized advice and maintain client relationships, which often involve a level of trust and communication that AI cannot replicate.
The most likely scenario is a collaboration between fund managers and AI technologies. Fund managers can leverage AI tools to enhance their decision-making processes, automate certain tasks, and gain deeper insights into market trends. This combination of human expertise and AI capabilities has the potential to create more efficient and effective investment strategies.
It's worth noting that the extent to which AI impacts the fund management industry will depend on various factors, including regulatory considerations, investor preferences, and technological advancements. While AI will continue to play an increasingly important role, the human element of fund management is expected to remain significant for the foreseeable future.

[winner69]

@dollarsanddata
The ChatGPT portfolio started trading on 5/16 and is up 1.4% as of June 6.

The S&P 500 is up 4.2% over the same time period.

Thanks for playing!

[SailorRob]

Imagine when the AI super computers can do technical analysis as well as some old man in NZ squinting at the screen (or 12) through their spectacles.

Then imagine when it develops the power to use moving average crosses to determine entry and exit prices.

Once that day comes, we're all rich.

But I think it's some time away before a computer can recognise simple patterns.

[bull....]

Imagine when the AI super computers can do technical analysis as well as some old man in NZ squinting at the screen (or 12) through their spectacles.

Then imagine when it develops the power to use moving average crosses to determine entry and exit prices.

Once that day comes, we're all rich.

But I think it's some time away before a computer can recognise simple patterns.

yep i trialed some financial analysis on the ai ..... failed big time as it does not have access to relevant data or capabilities to compare or anaylze data

im sure it will develop in time as an add on more than likely that your pay for

as for screens anyone using 1 screen these days for serious research is way unproductive

[thegreatestben]

What AI are you using? free access Chatgpt?

[bull....]

What AI are you using? free access Chatgpt?

yep , i dont know what the paid version like

[Daytr]

AI is an extension of algorithms that have been in place for years. What i think it will mean as it develops more is technical trading will become even more dominant than it already is.

Will it be able to pick out junior stocks that show potential but don't necessarily have the evidence in place to back it up?
Will AI select a stock based on the management?

Certainly going to be interesting how it all plays out.

[thegreatestben]

yep i trialed some financial analysis on the ai ..... failed big time as it does not have access to relevant data or capabilities to compare or anaylze data

im sure it will develop in time as an add on more than likely that your pay for

as for screens anyone using 1 screen these days for serious research is way unproductive

A guy I work with that I had discussed chatgpt with a few times recently started using the paid version and he said it's a night and day difference. I've found the free version to be quite limited and it would give up half way through a response that it really had to think about.

[bull....]

Imagine when the AI super computers can do technical analysis as well as some old man in NZ squinting at the screen (or 12) through their spectacles.

Then imagine when it develops the power to use moving average crosses to determine entry and exit prices.

Once that day comes, we're all rich.

But I think it's some time away before a computer can recognise simple patterns.

In the realm of stocks, where knowledge's allure,
There stands Sailor Rob, a trader so pure.
With twelve screens before him, a sight to behold,
He charts the market's rhythm, a story untold.


On each screen, a canvas of data unfolds,
Stock tickers dancing, their stories untold.
He watches the patterns, the trends that arise,
Seeking opportunities, a fortune he spies.


Screen one reveals the indices, broad and wide,
Tracking the market's pulse, its shifting tide.
Screen two displays news, the latest in play,
Unveiling events that shape the market's sway.


Screen three portrays charts, lines intricately drawn,
Candles flicker, showing where prices have gone.
Screen four shows volumes, a symphony of trade,
The heartbeat of markets, where fortunes are made.


Screen five delves into sectors, their rise and fall,
Analyzing industries, their strength standing tall.
Screen six unravels options, strategies explored,
Weighing risk and reward, a careful accord.


Screen seven reveals earnings, company reports,
Delving into financials, seeking growth and support.
Screen eight focuses on dividends, a stream of delight,
Investing in income, a prudent insight.


Screen nine uncovers trends, momentum laid bare,
Identifying winners, with profits to share.
Screen ten gazes at fundamentals, sturdy and strong,
Seeking value in stocks, where bargains belong.


Screen eleven peers into global markets afar,
Tracking currencies, commodities, a universal star.
Screen twelve, the final frontier, a portfolio's glance,
Balancing positions, a careful finance.


In this world of screens, Sailor Rob sails,
Navigating the markets, where opportunity prevails.
With keen eyes and knowledge, he charts his course,
Harnessing data's power, a trader's resource.


So, raise a toast to Sailor Rob, with screens shining bright,
As he embarks on his journey, a trader's delight.
In this digital sea, where data's streams flow,
He steers his ship, riding the market's ebb and flow.

[bull....]

A guy I work with that I had discussed chatgpt with a few times recently started using the paid version and he said it's a night and day difference. I've found the free version to be quite limited and it would give up half way through a response that it really had to think about.

i dont think ill being doing the paid version based on my trialing of the free version , speed wise i have found it pretty quick but that could be based on my connection

my kid users it for coding and finds it a good help so i guess various people will find something of use out of it ... hopefully microsoft will incorporate into excel for financial analysis

[Bobdn]

Great to see we're in official bull market territory for the S&P500.

It doesn't change anything for me personally but it gives me a lift nonetheless.

[kiora]

Crikey Bull you've missed your calling as a poet !
When's the book being published ? :)

"So, raise a toast to Sailor Rob, with screens shining bright,
As he embarks on his journey, a trader's delight.
In this digital sea, where data's streams flow,
He steers his ship, riding the market's ebb and flow."

[SailorRob]

Great to see we're in official bull market territory for the S&P500.

It doesn't change anything for me personally but it gives me a lift nonetheless.

Isn't that an extremely bad thing?

[SailorRob]

Crikey Bull you've missed your calling as a poet !
When's the book being published ? :)

"So, raise a toast to Sailor Rob, with screens shining bright,
As he embarks on his journey, a trader's delight.
In this digital sea, where data's streams flow,
He steers his ship, riding the market's ebb and flow."

His calling as a poet only began when he signed up for ChatGTP

[bull....]

Imagine when the AI super computers can do technical analysis as well as some old man in NZ squinting at the screen (or 12) through their spectacles.

Then imagine when it develops the power to use moving average crosses to determine entry and exit prices.

Once that day comes, we're all rich.

But I think it's some time away before a computer can recognise simple patterns.

here's the code for you sailor for your moving average crossover

def calculate_sma(data, window):
sma = []
for i in range(len(data)):
if i < window:
sma.append(None) # Placeholder for SMA until enough data points are available
else:
sma.append(sum(data[i-window:i]) / window)
return sma


def moving_average_crossover(data, short_window, long_window):
sma_short = calculate_sma(data, short_window)
sma_long = calculate_sma(data, long_window)


crossover_points = []
for i in range(1, len(data)):
if sma_short[i-1] < sma_long[i-1] and sma_short[i] > sma_long[i]:
crossover_points.append(i)


return crossover_points


# Example usage:
data = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]
short_window = 3
long_window = 5


crossover_points = moving_average_crossover(data, short_window, long_window)
print(crossover_points)

you can program it into your algo and trade it thru interactive brokers , the codes in python

[SailorRob]

here's the code for you sailor for your moving average crossover

def calculate_sma(data, window):
sma = []
for i in range(len(data)):
if i < window:
sma.append(None) # Placeholder for SMA until enough data points are available
else:
sma.append(sum(data[i-window:i]) / window)
return sma


def moving_average_crossover(data, short_window, long_window):
sma_short = calculate_sma(data, short_window)
sma_long = calculate_sma(data, long_window)


crossover_points = []
for i in range(1, len(data)):
if sma_short[i-1] < sma_long[i-1] and sma_short[i] > sma_long[i]:
crossover_points.append(i)


return crossover_points


# Example usage:
data = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]
short_window = 3
long_window = 5


crossover_points = moving_average_crossover(data, short_window, long_window)
print(crossover_points)

you can program it into your algo and trade it thru interactive brokers , the codes in python

Bull, please remove the code!

We can't have that out in public, our edge will be gone.

Everyone will know when to buy and sell now.

[causecelebre]

In the realm of stocks, where knowledge's allure,
There stands Sailor Rob, a trader so pure.
With twelve screens before him, a sight to behold,
He charts the market's rhythm, a story untold.

...


Did you get ChatGPT to write that? Haha

Also note ChatGpt is trained on data only up to September 2021. I have a tabs permanently open in my browser for both ChatGPT and Bard. I use them for possibly 50% of my work now though I can't use code, data or other IP specific to any of my clients. For what I do (code) its utterly ground breaking. However, do not believe everything they say. I have found errors and cross reference a lot. In my view AI will have a bigger impact on society than the internet. I am a believer (with a healthy dose of scepticism). All hail the AI

[SailorRob]

Did you get ChatGPT to write that? Haha

Also note ChatGpt is trained on data only up to September 2021. I have a tabs permanently open in my browser for both ChatGPT and Bard. I use them for possibly 50% of my work now though I can't use code, data or other IP specific to any of my clients. For what I do (code) its utterly ground breaking. However, do not believe everything they say. I have found errors and cross reference a lot. In my view AI will have a bigger impact on society than the internet. I am a believer (with a healthy dose of scepticism). All hail the AI

Yes he did.

In case you haven't noticed, Bulls command of the written English language is at around a 7 year olds level.

What type of coding do you do?

[Bobdn]

@sailor, no it's a good thing. Im spending now, not putting new money to work. So every year I take a chunk of money and spend it. I don't want to see a 90 per cent drop like from 1929 to 1932.

When you retire (for good) you will understand where I'm coming from. I use to love a decent bear market when I had cash flooding in, now I'm ok with them but hoping it doesn't drag on for too long. Sequence of return risk: I'm almost past the danger zone. With this new bull market, I think I'm in the clear.

We're in a new bull market!

[causecelebre]

Yes he did.

In case you haven't noticed, Bulls command of the written English language is at around a 7 year olds level.

What type of coding do you do?

My bread and butter is the backend for boring commercial work, airlines, crypto, media. My own work involve trading/investment strategies: momentum, trend, crypto perpetual futures funding rate arbitrage, risk parity - though having kids and a real job means I don't get as much time as I like on the good stuff. I also have written indicators on TradingView some of those have become relatively popular

[bull....]

My bread and butter is the backend for boring commercial work, airlines, crypto, media. My own work involve trading/investment strategies: momentum, trend, crypto perpetual futures funding rate arbitrage, risk parity - though having kids and a real job means I don't get as much time as I like on the good stuff. I also have written indicators on TradingView some of those have become relatively popular

cool that you provide to tradingview i thought about it but take up a lot of time , ive just testing some pine on gpt now and it seems too understand it , i havnt tested it on tradingview yet but will at some stage.

[bull....]

Yes he did.

In case you haven't noticed, Bulls command of the written English language is at around a 7 year olds level.

What type of coding do you do?

thats the beauty of ai , kid's will never have to read or write again lol we will communicate thru our ph's with ai

[SailorRob]

@sailor, no it's a good thing. Im spending now, not putting new money to work. So every year I take a chunk of money and spend it. I don't want to see a 90 per cent drop like from 1929 to 1932.

When you retire (for good) you will understand where I'm coming from. I use to love a decent bear market when I had cash flooding in, now I'm ok with them but hoping it doesn't drag on for too long. Sequence of return risk: I'm almost past the danger zone. With this new bull market, I think I'm in the clear.

We're in a new bull market!

I do understand where you're coming from. Makes sense.

[thegreatestben]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Learning_(South_Park)

:lol:

[bull....]

gpt does do fundamental criteria for automation

python code when cashflow is negative


def identify_negative_cashflow(cashflow):
negative_periods = []
for i in range(len(cashflow)):
if cashflow[i] < 0:
negative_periods.append(i)


return negative_periods


# Example usage:
cashflow = [1000, 2000, -500, 1500, -800, 3000, -1000]
negative_periods = identify_negative_cashflow(cashflow)
print(negative_periods)


python code when inventory ratio is high


def identify_high_inventory_ratio(inventory, sales):
high_inventory_periods = []
for i in range(len(inventory)):
if inventory[i] > 0 and sales[i] > 0 and inventory[i] / sales[i] > 2:
high_inventory_periods.append(i)


return high_inventory_periods


# Example usage:
inventory = [100, 200, 300, 400, 500]
sales = [50, 100, 200, 300, 400]
high_inventory_periods = identify_high_inventory_ratio(inventory, sales)
print(high_inventory_periods)

so i can see how this will eventually speed everything up superfast

[SailorRob]

My bread and butter is the backend for boring commercial work, airlines, crypto, media. My own work involve trading/investment strategies: momentum, trend, crypto perpetual futures funding rate arbitrage, risk parity - though having kids and a real job means I don't get as much time as I like on the good stuff. I also have written indicators on TradingView some of those have become relatively popular


That boring stuff is what makes the world go round.

Could you point me to a CAGR function on TradingView, so like the percentage up or down function, it will add a time factor and you can see CAGR? Probably already exists.

[causecelebre]

You could try this one. Just select two points. It will show the +/- CAGR for your selected period. You might enjoy the instrument they used for the example :)

https://www.tradingview.com/script/SkmMrMe0-CAGR-Custom-Range/

[causecelebre]

cool that you provide to tradingview i thought about it but take up a lot of time , ive just testing some pine on gpt now and it seems too understand it , i havnt tested it on tradingview yet but will at some stage.

I am an open source kinda guy. That said I do keep some versions of them to myself with a little extra secret sauce ;) I find writing them useful for quick prototyping before porting them into my own strategies and backtests. Its good that the latest version of pine supports some basic data structures like arrays which I always thought a great failing.

[SailorRob]

You could try this one. Just select two points. It will show the +/- CAGR for your selected period. You might enjoy the instrument they used for the example :)

https://www.tradingview.com/script/SkmMrMe0-CAGR-Custom-Range/

Thanks.

Yes I know the CAGR well of the company they use.

Life changing discovery.

[bull....]

I am an open source kinda guy. That said I do keep some versions of them to myself with a little extra secret sauce ;) I find writing them useful for quick prototyping before porting them into my own strategies and backtests. Its good that the latest version of pine supports some basic data structures like arrays which I always thought a great failing.

i dont know a lot about pine yet , just starting on the platform with the paid version for asx stocks live
use metastock eod good for coding strategies but pretty old software now adays
was with TD America trade before they kicked all nz people off ... shame great platform for serious US traders and great coding script

[Joshuatree]

In the realm of stocks, where knowledge's allure,
There stands Sailor Rob, a trader so pure.
With twelve screens before him, a sight to behold,
He charts the market's rhythm, a story untold.


On each screen, a canvas of data unfolds,
Stock tickers dancing, their stories untold.
He watches the patterns, the trends that arise,
Seeking opportunities, a fortune he spies.


Screen one reveals the indices, broad and wide,
Tracking the market's pulse, its shifting tide.
Screen two displays news, the latest in play,
Unveiling events that shape the market's sway.


Screen three portrays charts, lines intricately drawn,
Candles flicker, showing where prices have gone.
Screen four shows volumes, a symphony of trade,
The heartbeat of markets, where fortunes are made.


Screen five delves into sectors, their rise and fall,
Analyzing industries, their strength standing tall.
Screen six unravels options, strategies explored,
Weighing risk and reward, a careful accord.


Screen seven reveals earnings, company reports,
Delving into financials, seeking growth and support.
Screen eight focuses on dividends, a stream of delight,
Investing in income, a prudent insight.


Screen nine uncovers trends, momentum laid bare,
Identifying winners, with profits to share.
Screen ten gazes at fundamentals, sturdy and strong,
Seeking value in stocks, where bargains belong.


Screen eleven peers into global markets afar,
Tracking currencies, commodities, a universal star.
Screen twelve, the final frontier, a portfolio's glance,
Balancing positions, a careful finance.


In this world of screens, Sailor Rob sails,
Navigating the markets, where opportunity prevails.
With keen eyes and knowledge, he charts his course,
Harnessing data's power, a trader's resource.


So, raise a toast to Sailor Rob, with screens shining bright,
As he embarks on his journey, a trader's delight.
In this digital sea, where data's streams flow,
He steers his ship, riding the market's ebb and flow.

Not bad,sounds like the next Lord Of The Rings movie:)

[SailorRob]

https://www.matthewball.vc/all/bigtechbiggestbets

Phenomenal article.

The scale of this build out is just incredible. An entire new parallel world is developing and already somewhat developed alongside the physical.

One thing you all must realise though, is that a house in Auckland or indeed any NZ property will guarantee outperform all of this.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor-hub/article/daydream-believers-read-this-before-you-invest-in-ai/?sh=3b4d982613ac

[Valuegrowth]

As I said one positive sign for businesses is lower unemployment. Other positive factor is wealth created from the one of the longest bull markets for many assets from 2009 to 2023. Thanks to those factors there is a chance to ride out 2nd half of this year. However, thereafter things are going to become worse before become better. Besides, the financial system has not fixed once and for all. Global debt has hit a record $300 trillion. Debt servicing is going to be more difficult as a result of high interest rates. This time I don’t think they can tame inflation using interest rates play. Only way to see lower inflation is price adjustments in assets, raw materials, goods and services. Consumer purchasing power is going to drop next. My purchasing power already has dropped. I used to travel those days almost every year. I can’t do it any longer.Strong companies with pricing power will be next winners. Because they can offer customers at lower levels than their competitors when purchasing power drops rapidly.

[mike2020]

Ive been on the road a few days stopping at a few tourist hot spots and crossed the straight. Never seen things so empty and I've traveled these routes many times in winter. Hardly a camper van in sight and only locals at Hanmer. I have to wonder if it is becoming like 2008 where people from everywhere have stopped spending.

[SailorRob]

Ive been on the road a few days stopping at a few tourist hot spots and crossed the straight. Never seen things so empty and I've traveled these routes many times in winter. Hardly a camper van in sight and only locals at Hanmer. I have to wonder if it is becoming like 2008 where people from everywhere have stopped spending.

That's very interesting, so no domestic tourists either...

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnC-ytFRW7c

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UANKE4FKw2g

[mike2020]

That's very interesting, so no domestic tourists either...

Would you class people from Christchurch at Hanmer as tourists? Most of the retail on the ferry was closed. Probably 5 or 10 percent of seats taken. Seemed vastly different to previous experience.

[SailorRob]

Would you class people from Christchurch at Hanmer as tourists? Most of the retail on the ferry was closed. Probably 5 or 10 percent of seats taken. Seemed vastly different to previous experience.

Haha no I wouldn't...

Some of these businesses must really be bleeding.

[alokdhir]

Ive been on the road a few days stopping at a few tourist hot spots and crossed the straight. Never seen things so empty and I've traveled these routes many times in winter. Hardly a camper van in sight and only locals at Hanmer. I have to wonder if it is becoming like 2008 where people from everywhere have stopped spending.

Yesterday I visited my local Super Liquor ie on Friday 5pm ...usually their busiest time ...found no customers ...enquired from friendly staff ...he said its been like this recently ...he told people trying to control spending ...I said even " Alcohol " ...must be dire ...I still think people are being more prudent this time ...saving and controlling before getting into a hole .

A family member who is in top management of a big bank informed me that 35% of mortgages only have been refixed at new rates ...more and more very close to need to do ...also foreclosures are rising then before but not alarming yet ...

Yes ...one gets the feeling what u suggesting ...

When real bottom of the economy ...stocks will be already rejoicing ...so hope ahead for NZX but difficult times for masses ...next 6 months will be tough and will make it very clear ...

[winner69]

US markets in bull market territory

Over last while interest rates go up 500 points and equity prices also rise. And apparently conditions are tight.

I don’t understand -

[alokdhir]

US markets in bull market territory

Over last while interest rates go up 500 points and equity prices also rise. And apparently conditions are tight.

I don’t understand -

Like charts and TA ...we will find reasons or shall I say ascribe reasons for whats happening in hindsight ...:p

[Valuegrowth]

Today’s winners can become tomorrow's losers.

(https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocknews:476f6442e094b:0-now-is-it-a-bull-market/)https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocknews:476f6442e094b:0-now-is-it-a-bull-market/

“These false breakouts are far too common in the modern era given the undue influence played by computer based traders. Their favorite game is pushing stocks past key levels of resistance and support to draw in the suckers...then they reverse course locking in ample profits at the expense of others.
Right now, it is neither bullish or bearish. Rather it is confused and uncertain.
Yet, given the facts in hand, we are most likely going to see the bear market coming out of hibernation mauling stocks lower once again.
Gladly we can enact strategies to not just survive that downturn...but even thrive. That’s because with 40 years of investing experience this is not my first time to the bear market rodeo.”


(https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-nasdaq-and-s-p-500-are-rising-but-most-stocks-are-falling-4ac23b3b)https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-nasdaq-and-s-p-500-are-rising-but-most-stocks-are-falling-4ac23b3b


“The Russell 2000 index tracking small capitalization companies declined 0.5%. “Ideally, in a bull market, lots of stocks are participating and breadth is strong,” wrote Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in a note to clients. “That has not been the case in the current rally, as the advance in the S&P 500 has been quite narrow and most stocks are lagging.”


(https://fortune.com/2023/06/09/stock-market-bull-rally-recession-risk-valuations/)https://fortune.com/2023/06/09/stock-market-bull-rally-recession-risk-valuations/

“The S&P 500 added 0.4% this week to post its fourth straight increase. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (https://fortune.com/company/nasdaq/) 100 trailed, posting its first decline in seven weeks as money flowed to beaten-down areas like banks and small-caps. A gauge of regional lenders jumped 3%, while the Russell 2000 climbed almost 2%.

While the S&P 500 has surged more than 20% from its October low, entering what some consider a bull market, the resilience is at odds with ever-growing warnings from the bond market. Yield curve inversion (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/deepest-bond-yield-inversion-since-volcker-suggests-hard-landing) — a widely watched indicator for an economic recession — has worsened over that stretch as long-dated Treasury rates fell further below short-dated ones.

Ramsey is skeptical, warning the market could face “a last gasp for this upswing,” given the Fed’s commitment to its inflation-fighting campaign.

In the previous eight instances of yield inversion, the S&P 500 dropped 35% on average from the interim peak to the final low, his analysis shows.

“When the really beaten-down stuff finally joins in, it’s sometimes a sign the party is about to end,” Ramsey said. “And unlike the endless market celebrations of the last decade, this one lacks a punch bowl,” a reference to stimulative Fed policy.

To Emily Roland, the co-chief investment strategist of John Hancock Investment Management, investors had better hold the urge to chase gains because the economic outlook remains murky and today’s winners can easily become tomorrow’s losers.”

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mark-lister-should-i-pay-off-the-mortgage-or-invest-that-extra-cash/I7UGCJW35ZAR5NRLX3GT54Y2LY/

[Valuegrowth]

After Covid-19 led to unprecedented borrowing. War in Ukraine is pushing global debt ever higher. World is sitting on over 300 trillion debt. Hope we are not going to see another credit crisis this time.

https://www.businessinsider.com/gm-ford-chrysler-almost-died-during-financial-crisis-changes-since-2018-9

l Ten years ago, amidst the worst financial crises since the Great Depression, the American auto industry almost died.
l The "Big Three" U.S. car companies of General Motors, (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/general-motors)Chrysler (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/fca), and Ford (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/ford) faced potential insolvency.
l But a decade later, thanks to the $80 billion dollar lifeline provided by the Troubled Asset Relief Program engineered by the Bush (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/bush) and Obama (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/obama) Administrations, the U.S. auto industry has recovered.
l Each of the major automakers experienced its own story out of the recovery, with lessons to be learned.

https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/was-the-government-bailout-of-car-financers-necessary

“For CEOs of car manufacturers, the takeaway from Benmelech’s findings are clear: “Have a plan for when this market for credit goes away, because any crisis that impacts those markets is going to make things very tough on you.” But the broader implications, he says, speak to the inevitability of “clogged pipes” in our economy, and how agencies like the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve can effectively respond to them.”

[SailorRob]

After Covid-19 led to unprecedented borrowing. War in Ukraine is pushing global debt ever higher. World is sitting on over 300 trillion debt. Hope we are not going to see another credit crisis this time.

https://www.businessinsider.com/gm-ford-chrysler-almost-died-during-financial-crisis-changes-since-2018-9

l Ten years ago, amidst the worst financial crises since the Great Depression, the American auto industry almost died.
l The "Big Three" U.S. car companies of General Motors, (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/general-motors)Chrysler (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/fca), and Ford (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/ford) faced potential insolvency.
l But a decade later, thanks to the $80 billion dollar lifeline provided by the Troubled Asset Relief Program engineered by the Bush (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/bush) and Obama (https://www.businessinsider.com/category/obama) Administrations, the U.S. auto industry has recovered.
l Each of the major automakers experienced its own story out of the recovery, with lessons to be learned.

https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/was-the-government-bailout-of-car-financers-necessary

“For CEOs of car manufacturers, the takeaway from Benmelech’s findings are clear: “Have a plan for when this market for credit goes away, because any crisis that impacts those markets is going to make things very tough on you.” But the broader implications, he says, speak to the inevitability of “clogged pipes” in our economy, and how agencies like the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve can effectively respond to them.”

Debt is also an asset.

World sitting on 300 trillion of someones assets and someones debts.

[ValueNZ]

Debt is also an asset.

World sitting on 300 trillion of someones assets and someones debts.
Are you familiar with much of Ray Dailos works? Whilst credit is being expanded, people feel rich. When that credit needs to be paid off, people feel much poorer. This is what he claims is the cause of economic cycles.

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/election-2023-the-main-takeaways-from-greens-big-election-tax-announcement.html

I doubt only 0.7% New Zealanders are worth over $ 2 million ...also people think this policy is workable !!!! Really ?

[alokdhir]

Total card spending fell sharply in May, adding to evidence that consumers are keeping their wallets shut



•

There were falls across all sectors in May 2023 relative to April 2023, except for services spending



•

The chill evident in recent consumer spending data is consistent with our view that the current 5.5% OCR will be the peak. But it’s premature to discuss rate cuts

ASB View ...it wud seem very soon full clarity regarding economy will emerge ...close to elections time ...very interesting

[bull....]

nz market in the doldrum's again today .... must be selling to raise funds for the wastco issue ?

[Fortunecookie]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/06/election-2023-the-main-takeaways-from-greens-big-election-tax-announcement.html

I doubt only 0.7% New Zealanders are worth over $ 2 million ...also people think this policy is workable !!!! Really ?

The rich will flee the country so the tax take will go down.
A decent proportion of the country will decide not to work, because they can get a guaranteed income.
So we will end up with a shortage of workers so labour cost goes up and we will need up with a supply shortage of goods.
So inflation goes up again. We let in more workers from overseas therefore put more pressure on housing and infrastructure.
Have they not learnt anything from covid in terms of how it impacts the economy.
As mentioned tax take goes down and we end up borrowing to fund the guaranteed income.

[Ggcc]

The rich will flee the country so the tax take will go down.
A decent proportion of the country will decide not to work, because they can get a guaranteed income.
So we will end up with a shortage of workers so labour cost goes up and we will need up with a supply shortage of goods.
So inflation goes up again. We let in more workers from overseas therefore put more pressure on housing and infrastructure.
Have they not learnt anything from covid in terms of how it impacts the economy.
As mentioned tax take goes down and we end up borrowing to fund the guaranteed income.
I am in this category of "rich", but I won't be fleeing, I'll be seeing my accountant for advice on tax minimisation. PS I feel well off but not rich. Will I have to sell a house to pay the tax?

[Jay]

What about trusts with no income but just assets such as only a house they live in.? Might be a few settling out of the trust if this comes about??

[workingdad]

One of the better articles I’ve read. Intelligently having a crack at politics and getting a good point across on what successful business brings to the tax table.

On the greens policy, I support finding a better balance but paying people more to sit at home popping out babies is a temptation that can be easily taken advantage of. Guessing it would be rather inflationary too.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/opinion-sir-ian-taylor-an-open-letter-to-chloe-swarbrick-on-wealth-tax/ODLKEE7T7BDYRL23HSJ3FE6U4Y/

[Fortunecookie]

I am in this category of "rich", but I won't be fleeing, I'll be seeing my accountant for advice on tax minimisation. PS I feel well off but not rich. Will I have to sell a house to pay the tax?

Im sure you can find the optimal solution based on the Greens proposal without leaving the country. In terms of rich I was think the likes of the mega rich. They could easily relocate and minimise the effects.
There is no doubt there is inequality. I don't believe this is the right approach for the country. Not one easy answer because there are many issues interconnected.

[Ggcc]

I understand why they are doing this, as we have spent too much money as a country. The only problem I have always had is just handing poor people money. Can we not give them opportunities, so they become an asset for society, rather than just receive money. The majority of people I know on he benefit don't just want money, they want to feel needed and important.

In Napier we need loads of workers in the trade sector and truck drivers. All offering starting rates of between $30-45 per hour, much more than just on a benefit. Help people get into these jobs rather than just hand everyone money. I will just be using the $385 to pay taxes.

[BlackPeter]

The rich will flee the country so the tax take will go down.
A decent proportion of the country will decide not to work, because they can get a guaranteed income.
So we will end up with a shortage of workers so labour cost goes up and we will need up with a supply shortage of goods.
So inflation goes up again. We let in more workers from overseas therefore put more pressure on housing and infrastructure.
Have they not learnt anything from covid in terms of how it impacts the economy.
As mentioned tax take goes down and we end up borrowing to fund the guaranteed income.

Cheers for this appraisal - you are a real sunshine. A true Fortune Cookie :t_up:

But don't forget - after the end of the world as we know it, a new and better world might emerge :) ;

Seriously - apart from this policy not being implementable (anybody thought about what happens if landlords add an annual rent hike of $25000 to recover the wealth tax for their $1million property), any party suggesting it is committing suicide.

I suppose the Greenies will fight as well for the removal of the 5% clause. They will need to. But anyway - the sun will rise tomorrow.

[Fortunecookie]

I understand why they are doing this, as we have spent too much money as a country. The only problem I have always had is just handing poor people money. Can we not give them opportunities, so they become an asset for society, rather than just receive money. The majority of people I know on he benefit don't just want money, they want to feel needed and important.

In Napier we need loads of workers in the trade sector and truck drivers. All offering starting rates of between $30-45 per hour, much more than just on a benefit. Help people get into these jobs rather than just hand everyone money. I will just be using the $385 to pay taxes.


I don't know what the root causes but I agree with you. People need to feel good about contributing to society.
Apparently about of third of teenagers cannot read or write. Thats a terrible statistics. I recently listened to an podcast that talked about learning challenges. Apparently about 50% of people in prison have dyslexia.
I am wondering one cause or reason for some of the issues we have now is because the needs are not being accommodated so they fall through the gap.

[Fortunecookie]

Cheers for this appraisal - you are a real sunshine. A true Fortune Cookie :t_up:

But don't forget - after the end of the world as we know it, a new and better world might emerge :) ;

Seriously - apart from this policy not being implementable (anybody thought about what happens if landlords add an annual rent hike of $25000 to recover the wealth tax for their $1million property), any party suggesting it is committing suicide.

I suppose the Greenies will fight as well for the removal of the 5% clause. They will need to. But anyway - the sun will rise tomorrow.

I guess why propose it in the first place.
Seems like they were keen on getting some extra votes.

[winner69]

Greens get their wish and company tax rate up to 33% means company tax paid profits down about 9%

EPS down so unless PE ratios go up the stock market will fall

[Ggcc]

Im sure you can find the optimal solution based on the Greens proposal without leaving the country. In terms of rich I was think the likes of the mega rich. They could easily relocate and minimise the effects.
There is no doubt there is inequality. I don't believe this is the right approach for the country. Not one easy answer because there are many issues interconnected.
I agree there is inequality and am quite happy if the governments introduced some form of tax for everyone and not just the rich. Only on assets sold, not on estimated values. If everyone pays GGT on all assets sold, Trusts or individuals, everyone would just need to pay and everyone could complain, but it would make it fair. Plus they have to allow for capital losses. You can't have one without the other

[SailorRob]

I agree there is inequality and am quite happy if the governments introduced some form of tax for everyone and not just the rich. Only on assets sold, not on estimated values. If everyone pays GGT on all assets sold, Trusts or individuals, everyone would just need to pay and everyone could complain, but it would make it fair. Plus they have to allow for capital losses. You can't have one without the other

Without inequality you have no innovation.

Only places where everyone is equal, is where they're all equal in absolutely poverty.

Amazon, Facebook, Google etc were all created by young men who couldn't lose their virginity.

[ziggy415]

I agree there is inequality and am quite happy if the governments introduced some form of tax for everyone and not just the rich. Only on assets sold, not on estimated values. If everyone pays GGT on all assets sold, Trusts or individuals, everyone would just need to pay and everyone could complain, but it would make it fair. Plus they have to allow for capital losses. You can't have one without the other
Are you suggesting the likes of Sanitarium...Catholic church ...Brian tamaki....Ngaitahu...Tainui.. etc should all pay there fair share of tax oh....... er I mean some tax..

[causecelebre]

Are you suggesting the likes of Sanitarium...Catholic church ...Brian tamaki....Ngaitahu...Tainui.. etc should all pay there fair share of tax oh....... er I mean some tax..

Yeah I might set myself up as a charity

[Ggcc]

Without inequality you have no innovation.

Only places where everyone is equal, is where they're all equal in absolutely poverty.

Amazon, Facebook, Google etc were all created by young men who couldn't lose their virginity.
That last bit made me laugh and is true. I don’t want to pay more tax and especially tax on something I haven’t sold. What is the solution for this huge debt labour and greens have got us in? I can’t come up with any solutions that the “rich” like.

[Panda-NZ-]

That last bit made me laugh and is true. I don’t want to pay more tax and especially tax on something I haven’t sold. What is the solution for this huge debt labour and greens have got us in? I can’t come up with any solutions that the “rich” like.

The solution is to pretend it was bill english and national.

Or assume we are any other country really, same story. =)

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/opinion-sir-ian-taylor-an-open-letter-to-chloe-swarbrick-on-wealth-tax/ODLKEE7T7BDYRL23HSJ3FE6U4Y/

Cud not have said it any better ...Politicians need know ... tax money they end up wasting comes from hard working people ...some still working and paying taxes ...some HAD worked hard to save after paying taxes ...which is in the eyes of so called socialist politicians now ...

[JBmurc]

Ive been on the road a few days stopping at a few tourist hot spots and crossed the straight. Never seen things so empty and I've traveled these routes many times in winter. Hardly a camper van in sight and only locals at Hanmer. I have to wonder if it is becoming like 2008 where people from everywhere have stopped spending.

NZ has become an expensive destination ... was in Queenstown today was pretty quite .. thought I'd grab a lunch feed of Fishnchips out Frankton why (not in QTN tourist central) .... one piece of fish 6x fish bites scoop of chips small bottle of water $29 !! WTF...

[Baa_Baa]

NZ has become an expensive destination ... was in Queenstown today was pretty quite .. thought I'd grab a lunch feed of Fishnchips out Frankton why (not in QTN tourist central) .... one piece of fish 6x fish bites scoop of chips small bottle of water $29 !! WTF...

You're buying (sea) fish in the heart of the south island, many kilometres away from the ocean, and you expect it to be cheap? Should have taken your fishing rod and caught a trout instead, cheap as.

[Daytr]

I spent the last 4 - 5 days in Sydney & was pleasantly surprised how reasonably priced things were. Coffee & beer cheaper than here. Breakfast similar to cheaper & I was wining & dining either at Bondi Beach or other waterfront eateries etc.
Also went to a Four Square equivalent and most things were cheaper than our supermarkets. Meat was about the same price, fruit & veg cheaper. And this wasn't a Coles or Woodworths.

[JBmurc]

You're buying (sea) fish in the heart of the south island, many kilometres away from the ocean, and you expect it to be cheap? Should have taken your fishing rod and caught a trout instead, cheap as.

I use to drive to work on the fishing boats 3hrs away from Qtn hardly too far to have great seafood such a copout ...100+ locations selling seafood in Qtn...daily freight from the fish factories .... Harbour Fish had a good size location in frankton right next door to this fish n Chips shop that processes a good amount of seafood they will truck directly from their fishermen they buy off..

trout feed that to the cat ....

[BlackPeter]

I use to drive to work on the fishing boats 3hrs away from Qtn hardly too far to have great seafood such a copout ...100+ locations selling seafood in Qtn...daily freight from the fish factories .... Harbour Fish had a good size location in frankton right next door to this fish n Chips shop that processes a good amount of seafood they will truck directly from their fishermen they buy off..

I trust you noticed that Baa_Baa was just pulling your leg?

Re the prices - I assume you realise that Qtn is just a facility to herd and extort foreign tourists and foreign workers. Surprised any sensible Kiwi would go there, unless for the activity of extorting foreigners ... but certainly not bring their money there.

[JBmurc]

I trust you noticed that Baa_Baa was just pulling your leg?

Re the prices - I assume you realise that Qtn is just a facility to herd and extort foreign tourists and foreign workers. Surprised any sensible Kiwi would go there, unless for the activity of extorting foreigners ... but certainly not bring their money there.

... Mostly locals would use this chippy .. but I've found it quite common now to cost me around $30 for many takeaways .... good reason to cook your own lunch

[winner69]

US inflation beaten

Read that this is the 3rd most intense inflation decline from a peak in the past 7 decades. In just 11 months, the inflation rate plunged -510 basis points to 4% on the nose (+3.2% on a 6months. basis and +2.2% over the past 3 months

[kiora]

Could see a "Plunge" in interest rates in NZ & "BOUNCE" in shares? :)

[winner69]

NZ Current Account deficit March $33billion still pretty bad

[bull....]

Big profits not to blame for inflation, report suggests

Sense Partners economist Shamubeel Eaqub said there was no evidence of widespread increases in profit margins driving up inflation in New Zealand

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132314409/big-profits-not-to-blame-for-inflation-report-suggests

oh well so its the greedy workers fault

[mike2020]

[QUOTE=winner69;1007823]NZ Current Account deficit March $33billion still pretty bad[/QUOTE
It looked like insurance inflows improved the figures. Isnt that a little artificial?

[ValueNZ]

Big profits not to blame for inflation, report suggests

Sense Partners economist Shamubeel Eaqub said there was no evidence of widespread increases in profit margins driving up inflation in New Zealand

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132314409/big-profits-not-to-blame-for-inflation-report-suggests

oh well so its the greedy workers fault
Try the reserve bank of New Zealand and their expansionary monetary policy, as well as the governments ever increasing spending fuelled by debt.

[bull....]

Try the reserve bank of New Zealand and their expansionary monetary policy, as well as the governments ever increasing spending fuelled by debt.

yep i see the IMF just issued a warning about NZ and the govt spending being excessive

Watch live: Inflation will remain high for some time and interest rate increases can't be ruled out, IMF warns

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300905413/watch-live-inflation-will-remain-high-for-some-time-and-interest-rate-increases-cant-be-ruled-out-imf-warns


Food inflation continues

Statistics NZ said grocery food prices increased by 12.7% in May compared to the same month in 2022, while fruit and vegetable prices increased by 18.4% for the same period.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/122505/food-prices-continue-climb-may-and-are-still-increasing-rapidly-stats-nz

ORR must be very confident in his no more rate increases ... oRR is he pulling our leg ?

[bull....]

Fed holds off on rate hike, but says two more are coming later this year
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/fed-rate-decision-june-2023.html

dovish pause with hawkish commentary , anyway the market was not to phased..... hail the AI may the multi baggers continue to roll in

[bull....]

New Zealand's first-quarter GDP shrinks 0.1 percent, confirming country is in recession


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/06/new-zealand-s-first-quarter-gdp-shrinks-0-1-percent-confirming-country-is-in-recession.html


guess combined with NZ high inflation means NZ has STAGFLATION ( without the high unemployment yet ? )

[winner69]

GDP print bit of a non event

But the media will love it big time

[JBmurc]

No different here ..I'd say even worse

Aussie Housing Market is a ‘Ponzi Scheme’ says Top CEO

https://watch.adh.tv/the-other-side-interviews-1/season:1/videos/aussie-housing-market-is-a-ponzi-scheme-says-top-ceo

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you for the link. Time to be fearful on overvalued assets. This time is no different.


No different here ..I'd say even worse

Aussie Housing Market is a ‘Ponzi Scheme’ says Top CEO


https://watch.adh.tv/the-other-side-interviews-1/season:1/videos/aussie-housing-market-is-a-ponzi-scheme-says-top-ceo (https://watch.adh.tv/the-other-side-interviews-1/season:1/videos/aussie-housing-market-is-a-ponzi-scheme-says-top-ceo)

[bull....]

all hail the AI lol , anyway the rally continuing as i say last week its broadening now :t_up:
might be some profit taking soon though as indicators getting overbrought in some area's

shame NZ market hasnt participated

[alokdhir]

Today is 3rd Friday of the 3rd month ....so can expect some fireworks if any ...we have a sleepy market as it's worried about Election outcome also in addition to so many others ....

[winner69]

The S&P500 is 8% from its highest extreme in history.

Go the US markets

[alokdhir]

Perma Bull labelled Tom Lee turned out to be most right ...being acknowledged on CNBC ... Bulls have it ...but our Bull was labelled perma bear here !!!

[RTM]

Thanks. Listening to Mike Hoskins this ,owning I thought it was just NZ that is a basket case.


[ QUOTE=JBmurc;1008007]No different here ..I'd say even worse

Aussie Housing Market is a ‘Ponzi Scheme’ says Top CEO

https://watch.adh.tv/the-other-side-interviews-1/season:1/videos/aussie-housing-market-is-a-ponzi-scheme-says-top-ceo[/QUOTE]

[bull....]

Perma Bull labelled Tom Lee turned out to be most right ...being acknowledged on CNBC ... Bulls have it ...but our Bull was labelled perma bear here !!!

respectivily i have to dis-agree tom lee timing was way off for his bull case. mike wilson got the bear case right but his timing on the bull case may be way off now as for that bull he got both right lol :t_up:

[Daytr]

No different here ..I'd say even worse

Aussie Housing Market is a ‘Ponzi Scheme’ says Top CEO

https://watch.adh.tv/the-other-side-interviews-1/season:1/videos/aussie-housing-market-is-a-ponzi-scheme-says-top-ceo

Thanks JB, found that very interesting and there are many parallels that can be drawn for NZ. I remember saying 10 years ago that I thought the Sydney market was in a bubble but rightly so someone said that immigration will keep it pumping, but that only works until it doesn't.
With unaffordable housing means interest rates have to stay low, however in an inflationary era you can't have your cake & eat it. 13 x wages is an incredible number.

When I was in Sydney last week I thought cost of most day to day things was similar to here, but I did see rents for a studio or 1 bdr in Bondi ranging from $650 - $1100 per week.

I suppose another outcome that wasn't mentioned is that property just plateaus for an extended period. Because if immigration is kept going at pace, the demand isn't going away.

The backdrop of the interview is exactly the view I had for the first 10 years working in Sydney on the 46th floor of Gateway. Just awesome.

[causecelebre]

all hail the AI lol , anyway the rally continuing as i say last week its broadening now :t_up:
might be some profit taking soon though as indicators getting overbrought in some area's

shame NZ market hasnt participated

Sure is. $RSP equal weighted S&P500 etf had record inflows @ $1.1b US last week. Almost 50% of Russell 2000 stocks above 50 day moving average from the lows of under 20% in mid-March this year

[Panda-NZ-]

The S&P500 is 8% from its highest extreme in history.

Go the US markets

With inflation though you need more $$ to keep up.

[alokdhir]

Index rebalancing leads to wild movements ...why ? When there are no changes required ?

Also how to read signals of which stocks are in demand ahead from index rebalancing movements ?

Is there any readable signals possible or they just random movements ??

Does anyone has any theories or explanations? ...enlighten us please ...

[BlackPeter]

Index rebalancing leads to wild movements ...why ? When there are no changes required ?

Also how to read signals of which stocks are in demand ahead from index rebalancing movements ?

Is there any readable signals possible or they just random movements ??

Does anyone has any theories or explanations? ...enlighten us please ...

Not that hard.

If a stock is included into the index than the index fund managers are required to buy the shares for their fund. They have to buy, no matter how much they cost. Only fools would sell them in this situation on the cheap, wouldn't they? This is the reason the price goes up.

If a stock is excluded, than the index managers are required to take this stock out of their fund, and the fund has to sell, no matter what. Who would pay a forced seller top dollars?

Just think about it ...

And sure - there are some buffers. Sometimes the stock is just handed over from e.g. the small caps fund to the NZ50 fund (in the same house), but the numbers rarely match, i.e. somebody has to sell or has to buy.

Always a bit more expensive if you are a forced buyer ... or seller.

[bull....]

Index rebalancing leads to wild movements ...why ? When there are no changes required ?

Also how to read signals of which stocks are in demand ahead from index rebalancing movements ?

Is there any readable signals possible or they just random movements ??

Does anyone has any theories or explanations? ...enlighten us please ...


guestimate the volumes in advance

taking a gamble on a stock seems less work to me lol unless its like hlg which has no daily volume to start with

[Valuegrowth]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jesse-livermore-s-trading-rules-still-hold-true-almost-75-years-later-164541700.html

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.ft.com/content/b5281dfd-54a1-42fa-b01d-88b3aa8f3272

The seven companies driving the US stock market rally

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzwNdxnEUQQ&amp;t=604s

[Hoop]

The S&P500 is 8% from its highest extreme in history.

Go the US markets

The optimists who think the bear market is ending and there is great times ahead with the next Bull Market cycle in sight will not like to see my chart below.

The scary thing about this chart is the Annualised PE Ratio value currently sitting at 30.64 and rising. It is easy to see inflation rate being the main driver of Annualised PE (PE10). High inflation or deflation = bad (lower than PE(10) average). Low inflation = good (higher than PE(10) average) Our recent low inflation Era is the reason why the market is "happy" (sentiment) with PE(10) operating at a much higher value than the average 15 -17 area.

However there are moments when the Market goes insane as seen on the charts with the extreme peaks and nadirs..At the moment Wall St market is living off the fumes of the low inflation era and it seems the present market (Wall St) is expecting the recent higher inflation rate to be short lived (in a secular sense)...If the higher inflation rate becomes sustainable and entrenched then expect the PE(10) to fall accordingly.

The PE(10) rule of thumb is anything above 20 is considered overvalued with the red line at >25 considered high risk of a major correction. The blue line< 10 is considered extremely undervalued. However these over and under valued figures depend on the inflation rate of the day of valuation..

For example the 30.4 value from an overall perspective is considered extremely overvalued and the market operating at high risk. Comparing that 30.4 figure two years ago when inflation was near zero % an analyst would have seen that 30.4 figure as being less over valued and a lesser risk than seeing that same figure today with inflation running at around 5%.

The charting of Annualised (inflation adjusted) PE Ratio shows the secular behaviour of the stockmarket (Wall St) which highlights ingrained (generational) investor trading behaviour sentiments which causes the market to be either undervalued or overvalued for very long periods of time.
The chart also highlights the wasted time in trying to determine what is a fair valuation of a market. The chart shows that history seldom sees the market at fair valuation (equilibrium). The Long term PE(10) chart shows the Wall St market is oscillating either between a secular Bull or Secular Bear Market Cycle.

14643

[winner69]

Love the stuff you come up with Hoops

Nice to see you point out that history seldom sees the market at fair valuation (equilibrium

[Daytr]

Yep great post Hoops. I've been thinking for some time the US markets are over bought considering the higher interest rate market. Did ok initially by shorting the S&P & Russell 2000, but then gave it all back shorting the DOW so I have cooled my heels for now.

[blackcap]

Fascinating stuff hoops. But its different this time you know.

Quite scary that we are at such high PE's with discount rates at elevated levels. Not sure where to from here.

[Onemootpoint]

Appreciated Hoops. Amongst other things there is likely an earnings resistance coming up next few quarters. Markets currently overbought.

[Valuegrowth]

A timely reminder. Thanks.
The optimists who think the bear market is ending and there is great times ahead with the next Bull Market cycle in sight will not like to see my chart below.

The scary thing about this chart is the Annualised PE Ratio value currently sitting at 30.64 and rising. It is easy to see inflation rate being the main driver of Annualised PE (PE10). High inflation or deflation = bad (lower than PE(10) average). Low inflation = good (higher than PE(10) average) Our recent low inflation Era is the reason why the market is "happy" (sentiment) with PE(10) operating at a much higher value than the average 15 -17 area.

However there are moments when the Market goes insane as seen on the charts with the extreme peaks and nadirs..At the moment Wall St market is living off the fumes of the low inflation era and it seems the present market (Wall St) is expecting the recent higher inflation rate to be short lived (in a secular sense)...If the higher inflation rate becomes sustainable and entrenched then expect the PE(10) to fall accordingly.

The PE(10) rule of thumb is anything above 20 is considered overvalued with the red line at >25 considered high risk of a major correction. The blue line< 10 is considered extremely undervalued. However these over and under valued figures depend on the inflation rate of the day of valuation..

For example the 30.4 value from an overall perspective is considered extremely overvalued and the market operating at high risk. Comparing that 30.4 figure two years ago when inflation was near zero % an analyst would have seen that 30.4 figure as being less over valued and a lesser risk than seeing that same figure today with inflation running at around 5%.

The charting of Annualised (inflation adjusted) PE Ratio shows the secular behaviour of the stockmarket (Wall St) which highlights ingrained (generational) investor trading behaviour sentiments which causes the market to be either undervalued or overvalued for very long periods of time.
The chart also highlights the wasted time in trying to determine what is a fair valuation of a market. The chart shows that history seldom sees the market at fair valuation (equilibrium). The Long term PE(10) chart shows the Wall St market is oscillating either between a secular Bull or Secular Bear Market Cycle.

14643

[causecelebre]

Millionaires are made in recessions.

[Leemsip]

Fletcher "our current outlook is for market volumes in our materials and distribution businesses to soften by a further c.8%,"

This is nasty signal for the NZ economy over the next year. Building and construction is a pretty big chunk of the economy and also is a bell weather for general economic activity.

Been listening to a few podcasts lately on the economic cycle. Some smart sounding american guru has a H.O.P.E framework for recessions:
- home permits drop
- orders drop
- profits drop
- employment drops
in that order.

We have seen new home starts slow, this has been signalled by Fletcher too. Currently in the new orders and profits dropping stage. Earnings will be lower across the board going forward, especially with goods related businesses (Mainfrieght, MPG, Steel and Tube, Fletcher etc). Employment comes last. Should start to see this happen by xmas.... Good time to have some cash.

Im still 60% cash, so money where my mouth is

[BlackPeter]

Hi Hoop, cheers for that. Scary PE ratios, isn't it?

One thing which baffles me is that despite these astronomic PE's of some US indices many big companies trade currently at single digit PE's. Admittedly, I am not very interested in the US markets but understand its basically the FANGs who drive the market and the average PE's into the stratosphere. I suppose most other companies are available at quite reasonable prices.

Personally more following European stocks, and many of them are currently at absolute bargain prices, e.g. Heidelberg Materials (think FBU just 10 times bigger) trades currently at a forward PE below 8; Mercedes Benz trades at a forward PE below 6, Daimler Trucks below 8 - and they all make sh*tloads of money - Year after year after year. Many other good car companies (well, not Tesla, but hey - I said good) as well as other industries are PE-wise in the same neighbour hood (well below 10).

OK - not wanting to discuss here the benefits of individual European companies, but just wondering - you clearly expect the FANGS to deflate at some stage - and for sure they will take the US indices with them. The question is - what would that mean for all the great companies which are currently available at bargain prices?

[Aaron]

Im still 60% cash, so money where my mouth is[/FONT]

Where do you hold your cash and at what interest rates?

[Leemsip]

Where do you hold your cash and at what interest rates?

rolling term deposits at the going bank rate at ASB. Got some bonds on the NZDX as well which are pretty cashlike.

[SailorRob]

rolling term deposits at the going bank rate at ASB. Got some bonds on the NZDX as well which are pretty cashlike.

What's your market timing track record like?

[SailorRob]

Hi Hoop, cheers for that. Scary PE ratios, isn't it?

One thing which baffles me is that despite these astronomic PE's of some US indices many big companies trade currently at single digit PE's. Admittedly, I am not very interested in the US markets but understand its basically the FANGs who drive the market and the average PE's into the stratosphere. I suppose most other companies are available at quite reasonable prices.

Personally more following European stocks, and many of them are currently at absolute bargain prices, e.g. Heidelberg Materials (think FBU just 10 times bigger) trades currently at a forward PE below 8; Mercedes Benz trades at a forward PE below 6, Daimler Trucks below 8 - and they all make sh*tloads of money - Year after year after year. Many other good car companies (well, not Tesla, but hey - I said good) as well as other industries are PE-wise in the same neighbour hood (well below 10).

OK - not wanting to discuss here the benefits of individual European companies, but just wondering - you clearly expect the FANGS to deflate at some stage - and for sure they will take the US indices with them. The question is - what would that mean for all the great companies which are currently available at bargain prices?

Correct about US markets.

But European examples, earnings are all BS. All go back into company. Free Cash flows are awful.

[BlackPeter]

Correct about US markets.

But European examples, earnings are all BS. All go back into company. Free Cash flows are awful.

Not quite. Just some random examples:

BMW has a dividend yield of 5%, BASF of 7.2%, MBG of 6.8%, VOW of 7.3% (but yes, they (VOW) have some issues as well). But yes, they reinvest on top of that a lot into their companies. I like that.

Maybe you look into the wrong direction?

[Joshuatree]

Where do you hold your cash and at what interest rates?

I've got most of my cash on call with my broker's Craig's at.@ 5.65%(their banker ANZ).

[ronaldson]

There is a bit of negativism around just now. I mark my portfolio to market at the close of trading each 31 March. I have 16 NZ holdings and 1 AU holding and all are currently in positive territory since 1 April except a small holding in RAD, and I have quite an amount of dividends as well over that timeframe. So it isn't all doom and gloom.

Jarden are only paying 4% on my call accounts so not as generous as Craigs above. But the (relatively risk free) call interest rate is significant enough now to be (or should be) a factor in most investors equation, as essentially the market needs to deliver more than that over time.

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop, cheers for that. Scary PE ratios, isn't it?

One thing which baffles me is that despite these astronomic PE's of some US indices many big companies trade currently at single digit PE's. Admittedly, I am not very interested in the US markets but understand its basically the FANGs who drive the market and the average PE's into the stratosphere. I suppose most other companies are available at quite reasonable prices.

Personally more following European stocks, and many of them are currently at absolute bargain prices, e.g. Heidelberg Materials (think FBU just 10 times bigger) trades currently at a forward PE below 8; Mercedes Benz trades at a forward PE below 6, Daimler Trucks below 8 - and they all make sh*tloads of money - Year after year after year. Many other good car companies (well, not Tesla, but hey - I said good) as well as other industries are PE-wise in the same neighbour hood (well below 10).

OK - not wanting to discuss here the benefits of individual European companies, but just wondering - you clearly expect the FANGS to deflate at some stage - and for sure they will take the US indices with them. The question is - what would that mean for all the great companies which are currently available at bargain prices?

Hi BP
Hi Hoop, cheers for that. Scary PE ratios, isn't it? Umm..Yeah maybe..One has to remember this scenario could carry on for many years.

One thing which baffles me is that despite these astronomic PE's of some US indices many big companies trade currently at single digit PE's. Yes agree. The chart is an index measuring Wall St as a whole so yes there will be many companies that have a lower PE. Note though PE is a short term measure, PE(10) (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pe10ratio.asp) is designed as very long term (secular) inflation adjusted smoothing measure so the values will be different. At the Wall St close this morning (NZ time) the S&P500 PE Ratio is 25.37.....again looking at that 150 yr chart (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio) there was a 100year period (1898 to 1998) where the PE never went above 25 yet in May 2009 it went to 123.73. Note: (not mentioned) early dates the S&P500 was assessed.

Personally more following European stocks, and many of them are currently at absolute bargain prices, e.g. Heidelberg Materials (think FBU just 10 times bigger) trades currently at a forward PE below 8; Mercedes Benz trades at a forward PE below 6, Daimler Trucks below 8 - and they all make sh*tloads of money - Year after year after year. PE is a crude measure and I'm cautious of any low PE stock..so DYR is advisable. Where I can I use long term PE Ratio charts.I look at a long term PE chart for that individual company then look at the long term PE chart for the sector that the individual company is involved in. This may give me an indication.

well, not Tesla, but hey - I said good.. Yeah last year was bad for Tesla but this year it's share price is more than double with a current PE of 78. It's another Amazon that makes a face value PE Ratio a mockery.

OK - not wanting to discuss here the benefits of individual European companies, but just wondering - you clearly expect the FANGS to deflate at some stage - and for sure they will take the US indices with them. The question is - what would that mean for all the great companies which are currently available at bargain prices?...Looking forward, who knows what the FAANGS have in store for us..This sudden Industrial Revolution (IR) leap (some say it's a new IR so its IR4) has and is going to disrupt many industrial sectors. Anything involving tech will have to embrace these new technologies very quickly. Interesting to note that when AI news broke out in the media the FAANGS were already in the process of employing this technology or already using it, or making it..So..it seems they have a jump on other companies at the moment. Some companies at Bargain prices? Always be some out there just difficult to pick the winners within the ongoing disruptive environment. I won't solely rely on low PE companies though as there are a lot of moving pieces in play.

I always remember the Dotcom bubble burst. The NZSE was mostly immune and most companies within the index rose yet the NZSE index fell quite sustainably due to the one heavy weighted company in the index. Telecom was the culprit and there were great discussions at the time that Telecom should be removed from the index.
A good chart to see how the FAANGS and other heavyweights affect the New York Stock Exchange index is to chart the percentage of companies within the index that have there share price above their moving average.. I use 50 MA and 200MA. Try it here at Stockcharts (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)website. Type in $NYA200R...At this moment there are 55% of companies trading above their MA200.

Must go and do some work..All the best
Hoop

[Daytr]

Another great post Hoop.
Amazon I think may come undone with the likes of Temu and other Asian platforms expanding. I realise Amazon is pivoting more towards tech and perhaps more of a Tesla style company but when are they ever going to justify their valuation?

AI could also finally challenge the likes of Google as the dominant search engine where every major tech company has their own version powered by AI.

Interesting times & AI being the white collar revolution won't allow the time for many to adjust. This will be the great disrupter.

[Panda-NZ-]

I think physical roles will become more secure and pay will go up over time. It's something that AI can't do and there's an aging population which means that most people can't do them either.

[Aaron]

rolling term deposits at the going bank rate at ASB. Got some bonds on the NZDX as well which are pretty cashlike.

I see Joshuatree gets 5.65% with his broker oncall that is better than short term term deposits at ANZ. My Rabo call account is currently 4.25%

Have recently cottoned on to the NZDX but a lot of the maturities are far into the future so I assume the idea would be if sharemarkets fall, interest rates fall, bonds go up (especially long dated bonds with a good yield). A liquid bond market allows you to sell and buy shares if you want.

Liquidity or easy money might be a problem one day if you want to get out of bonds but I guess this is unlikely with the people we have in charge of the money supply.

Infratil bonds all touching 7% obviously bond holders have less faith in the company than the shareholders on this site.

[Leemsip]

yes I have been buying IFT bonds at 7%ish....
Cant see what would blow them up... but you never know.

Should be some decent upside for the long dated ones if there is a recession and interest rates head back down. Ask anyone (landlords mainly though) and they expect rates to drop dramatically over the net couple of years. I prefer this bet as opposed to equities at the mo. Will switch back to equities if the situation changes.

Lots of companies on my watch list getting taken to the woodshed at the mo. SKC and STU on the NZX and OML, SSG, QIP, AVG on the asx have hit my buy price (and some others Im embarassed to mention). Im trying to wait for recession to wash through first.

[alokdhir]

People with negative bias on the market or with current valuations will always love Bearish sounding posts ...but did markets collapse when we went down last time ....No they didnt and neither they will ...Keep analysing charts and ratios to justify bearish bias ...but reality is that long term investing is done best when most are bearish ....I get and got before also ie June last year the impression that experts love to be bearish ...but they keep forgetting markets keep climbing walls of worries and bearishness ....

I am very bullish ahead for markets per se ...especially NZX50G

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

[kiora]

People with negative bias on the market or with current valuations will always love Bearish sounding posts ...but did markets collapse when we went down last time ....No they didnt and neither they will ...Keep analysing charts and ratios to justify bearish bias ...but reality is that long term investing is done best when most are bearish ....I get and got before also ie June last year the impression that experts love to be bearish ...but they keep forgetting markets keep climbing walls of worries and bearishness ....

I am very bullish ahead for markets per se ...especially NZX50G

VIX doesn't seem very worried
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5EVIX?p=%5EVIX#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2 RpY2l0eSI6MSwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjEsImZsaXBwZWQiOmZh bHNlLCJ2b2x1bWVVbmRlcmxheSI6dHJ1ZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLC Jjcm9zc2hhaXIiOnRydWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImxpbmUiLCJl eHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSwiYW dncmVnYXRpb25UeXBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiOiJs aW5lYXIiLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIjp7In R5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJpZCI6IuKAjHZv bCB1bmRy4oCMIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIn 0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRv d24gVm9sdW1lIjoiI2ZmMzMzYSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0Ii wicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hh cnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX19LCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOn sicGVyY2VudCI6MSwiZGlzcGxheSI6Il5WSVgiLCJjaGFydE5h bWUiOiJjaGFydCIsImluZGV4IjowLCJ5QXhpcyI6eyJuYW1lIj oiY2hhcnQiLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6bnVsbH0sInlheGlzTEhTIjpb XSwieWF4aXNSSFMiOlsiY2hhcnQiLCLigIx2b2wgdW5kcuKAjC JdfX0sInNldFNwYW4iOnsiYmFzZSI6ImFsbCIsIm11bHRpcGxp ZXIiOjF9LCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW 5kIjp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFm MiIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsImV2ZW50TWFwIj p7ImNvcnBvcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRy dWV9LCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2UiOm51bGwsIn N5bWJvbHMiOlt7InN5bWJvbCI6Il5WSVgiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmpl Y3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiXlZJWCIsInF1b3RlVHlwZSI6IklORE VYIiwiZXhjaGFuZ2VUaW1lWm9uZSI6IkFtZXJpY2EvQ2hpY2Fn byJ9LCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIi wic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJiYXNlIjoiYWxsIiwibXVsdGlwbGllciI6 MX19XX0-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX

[winner69]

So currently VIX is saying the SPX is estimated to go up or down 1% a third of the time

Let’s hope it’s all up days

[alokdhir]

Nothing is linear in markets ....but as long as higher highs and lower lows are being formed on medium term basis then it's all good ...imo

Thats what is happening since last June-Oct 2022 ...so all good if we go down some to go little higher then before

Stock Prices follow long term fundamentals of companies ...not easy to make a case for good companies not doing better ahead ...U can keep a good man down for a while but not always !!

Its all about rates then prospects must be rosier ahead ...can max stay higher for LITTLE longer then currently anticipated by markets ....but eventually they will revert to neutral or below neutral ....so nothing much to deter long term investing .

[Daytr]

I think physical roles will become more secure and pay will go up over time. It's something that AI can't do and there's an aging population which means that most people can't do them either.

Some physical jobs might but robotics & machines will have more & more AI tech so things like picking up the garbage, or laying drains etc over a fairly short space of time will become automated. Even building houses will be similar to car assembly plants or perhaps 3D printed. Most of this tech is already out there but will improve rapidly due to AI.

Any rules based function such as accounting or quite a bit of legal work will be performed by AI. It's the creative, the deal makers, the disrupters or where human interaction adds value that will remain in the human domain, at least for a while anyway.

Will there be mass unemployment as a result is the big question & I can't see how people will adapt quick enough to new careers, so I think there has to be.

[Valuegrowth]

AI will take some jobs. AFAIK, companies like IBM and BT either they announced job cuts or paused hiring for jobs. For me it's too early to get an idea about AI,s influnce on the job market.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90906438/why-mass-unemployment-worry-sentient-ai

[Daytr]

AI will take some jobs. AFAIK, companies like IBM and BT either they announced job cuts or paused hiring for jobs. For me it's too early to get an idea about AI,s influnce on the job market.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90906438/why-mass-unemployment-worry-sentient-ai

And this is why I say the change will be too quick for people to adapt or change career.

If you are graphic artist now I would be thinking of retraining or I wouldn't be advising school leavers to get an accounting degree.

By the time people realise, I.e they see evidence, effectively it will be too late for many. AI is the reason many governments including our own have been promoting a UBI.

[SailorRob]

Not quite. Just some random examples:

BMW has a dividend yield of 5%, BASF of 7.2%, MBG of 6.8%, VOW of 7.3% (but yes, they (VOW) have some issues as well). But yes, they reinvest on top of that a lot into their companies. I like that.

Maybe you look into the wrong direction?


No sport, I look at reality and the math.

If these companies had PE's as you suggest AND were reinvesting earnings into their businesses at attractive rates of return then either the share prices would race up as earnings grew with the retained earnings compounding in which case I find it hard to fathom the PE staying low, or the PE's would forever get lower and lower as the price stayed the same while retained earnings compounded.

But what is actually happening is that retained earnings are destroyed and these companies actually have no economic franchise as explained by Greenwald and the cash generating abilities are far removed from reported earnings.

[BlackPeter]

No sport, I look at reality and the math.

If these companies had PE's as you suggest AND were reinvesting earnings into their businesses at attractive rates of return then either the share prices would race up as earnings grew with the retained earnings compounding in which case I find it hard to fathom the PE staying low, or the PE's would forever get lower and lower as the price stayed the same while retained earnings compounded.

But what is actually happening is that retained earnings are destroyed and these companies actually have no economic franchise as explained by Greenwald and the cash generating abilities are far removed from reported earnings.

Clearly - you don't understand these companies, otherwise you would not use the conjunctive.

Clearly - as well - you seem to subscribe to the efficient market theory, which has been proven wrong again and again.

But keep talking - it sounds like you like the noise your words are making. Somebody has to.

[SailorRob]

Clearly - you don't understand these companies, otherwise you would not use the conjunctive.

Clearly - as well - you seem to subscribe to the efficient market theory, which has been proven wrong again and again.

But keep talking - it sounds like you like the noise your words are making. Somebody has to.


BP

Look at your returns and you will understand what I'm saying. I understand these companies all too well.

If you retain earnings and then use them like your Labour government... you will have low PE's old boy.

[BlackPeter]

BP

Look at your returns and you will understand what I'm saying. I understand these companies all too well.

If you retain earnings and then use them like your Labour government... you will have low PE's old boy.

I am quite happy with my returns, thanks for asking.

Clearly - you have no clue, but cheers for entertaining us.

[Valuegrowth]

Be fearful when others are greedy. Markets are more fragile than we think. I'm really fearful to buy overvalued assets.


Appreciated Hoops. Amongst other things there is likely an earnings resistance coming up next few quarters. Markets currently overbought.

[winner69]

BP

Look at your returns and you will understand what I'm saying. I understand these companies all too well.

If you retain earnings and then use them like your Labour government... you will have low PE's old boy.

SailorRob ….you are either not listening (understanding) to what BlackPeter is saying or your maths are completely stuffed up……..and bring Greenwald into the discussion enough said.

[alokdhir]

Like Tom Lee said on CNBC ...U shud be worried about crowded trades ...eventually stampede happens in those trades ...Cash / Fixed income is still a very crowded trade so need be careful ...Stocks are not in favour and most minds are still very bearish ...thus they shud do alright . Brighter future ahead for stocks :t_up:

[causecelebre]

A16Z (Marc Adreeesen) wrote and excellent post on AI is worth a read https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world/ particularly around AI and jobs and his description of the Lump of Labour fallacy

[SailorRob]

SailorRob ….you are either not listening (understanding) to what BlackPeter is saying or your maths are completely stuffed up……..and bring Greenwald into the discussion enough said.


I understand perfectly well, but one needs to have an exceptionally good understanding of what true returns on capital are for these enterprises in order to understand them. You need to forensically trace each and every dollar over a period of 10 to 15 years and determine what true free cash generating capacity they have and what growth in that capacity there is. You don't eat earnings, just an accounting entry.

If Blackpeter has the ability to analyse these cash flows and indeed realise that the market is discounting them wrong in aggregate and he then expresses his view in market purchases from less knowing sellers, then Blackpeter will have long term investment returns that are greater than the market and perhaps significantly so.

So why then does he not?

[BlackPeter]

I understand perfectly well, but one needs to have an exceptionally good understanding of what true returns on capital are for these enterprises in order to understand them. You need to forensically trace each and every dollar over a period of 10 to 15 years and determine what true free cash generating capacity they have and what growth in that capacity there is. You don't eat earnings, just an accounting entry.

If Blackpeter has the ability to analyse these cash flows and indeed realise that the market is discounting them wrong in aggregate and he then expresses his view in market purchases from less knowing sellers, then Blackpeter will have long term investment returns that are greater than the market and perhaps significantly so.

So why then does he not?

Absolute garbage, apart from you having no idea what my returns are. Before you start again you kindergarten bullying - they are none of your business either.

Past data analysis will never give you outstanding future returns ... given that past data analysis gives you just that - a picture of the past, not a picture of the future.

[Snow Leopard]

I understand perfectly well, but one needs to have an exceptionally good understanding of what true returns on capital are for these enterprises in order to understand them. You need to forensically trace each and every dollar over a period of 10 to 15 years and determine what true free cash generating capacity they have and what growth in that capacity there is. You don't eat earnings, just an accounting entry....



Pretentious, Moi?

[winner69]

Pretentious, Moi?

Doubt whether this guru Bruce Greenwald would agree snowie

[SailorRob]

Absolute garbage, apart from you having no idea what my returns are. Before you start again you kindergarten bullying - they are none of your business either.

Past data analysis will never give you outstanding future returns ... given that past data analysis gives you just that - a picture of the past, not a picture of the future.


Exactly.

You cannot judge a man with 50 violent criminal convictions.

All in his past.

His future behavior and his returns on capital, decisions and ability is in no way related to his past actions.

I have a extremely good idea of what your returns are from having read your posts over the years. They are close to the average investor returns as highlighted by JP Morgan.

[SailorRob]

Pretentious, Moi?


Not at all, this is just the very basic level you should be going to before you even consider further investigation. This is what drives everything.

[Daytr]

The resident troll still attacking anyone who doesn't bend to his will I see.

Shows no respect for anyone else.

A school yard bully who really needs to grow up or shut up.

[BlackPeter]

Exactly.

You cannot judge a man with 50 violent criminal convictions.

All in his past.

His future behavior and his returns on capital, decisions and ability is in no way related to his past actions.

I have a extremely good idea of what your returns are from having read your posts over the years. They are close to the average investor returns as highlighted by JP Morgan.

Interesting - I didn't realise that you are a slave trader and analyse the CV's of convicts, but hey - if this is your background it explains a thing or two about your behaviour.

I invest in companies. Different thing :) ;

[SailorRob]

The resident troll still attacking anyone who doesn't bend to his will I see.

Shows no respect for anyone else.

A school yard bully who really needs to grow up or shut up.


Is this the troll that you supposedly blocked for calling out a former investment banker who now trades the worlds markets on his cell phone.

And explained to us all about how NZ banks lend at margin capital supplied by the RBNZ?

[Ggcc]

Exactly.

You cannot judge a man with 50 violent criminal convictions.

All in his past.

His future behavior and his returns on capital, decisions and ability is in no way related to his past actions.

I have an extremely good idea of what your returns are from having read your posts over the years. They are close to the average investor returns as highlighted by JP Morgan.
If you take everyone’s posts at face value you will be wrong most times. You are dealing with unknowns and alter egos (not calling anyone you have been discussing with as having an alter ego). I can’t even guess how much each person invests in and how much they invest. Someone’s large sized holding might be $15,000, it may also be $10,000,000. I try not to compare myself to others and try to remain in my own lane in regards to investing (doesn’t always work lol). You only wind yourself up and people won’t change their investment style

[SailorRob]

If you take everyone’s posts at face value you will be wrong most times. You are dealing with unknowns and alter egos (not calling anyone you have been discussing with as having an alter ego). I can’t even guess how much each person invests in and how much they invest. Someone’s large sized holding might be $15,000, it may also be $10,000,000. I try not to compare myself to others and try to remain in my own lane in regards to investing (doesn’t always work lol). You only wind yourself up and people won’t change their investment style


Fair points,

But if I can convince one person that a companies past track record, past capital allocation decisions and managerial behavior is an extremely good indicator of what the future will hold then it's worth it.

BP is saying you can get nowhere looking at the past of a company as it's the future that matters... Missing the point.

[Daytr]

Is this the troll that you supposedly blocked for calling out a former investment banker who now trades the worlds markets on his cell phone.

And explained to us all about how NZ banks lend at margin capital supplied by the RBNZ?

Yes I did block you but as I mentioned in a recent post I unblocked you, probably a mistake, as I can see most of your gibberish when others reply to your train wreck of posts anyway.

I have not bothered responding to your continual misinformation about bank funding as for anyone in the know, it just displays your complete arrogance & ignorance.

Although it's not their main source of funding most commercial banks borrow from their central bank as it smoothes their liquidity as well as provides them with capability to lend more to their customers. Even in NZ the banks here use the RBNZ mechanism.

https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/116767/asb-biggest-user-public-money-offer-reserve-banks-funding-lending-programme#:~:text=Banks%20are%20free%20to%20use,bi llion%2C%20and%20Kiwibank%20%241.1%20billion.

[Ggcc]

Fair points,

But if I can convince one person that a companies past track record, past capital allocation decisions and managerial behavior is an extremely good indicator of what the future will hold then it's worth it.

BP is saying you can get nowhere looking at the past of a company as it's the future that matters... Missing the point.
Just convince yourself if the message is not getting through. Be happy.

[Snow Leopard]

Doubt whether this guru Bruce Greenwald would agree snowie

Oh, THAT Greenwald!
You could be right.

[SailorRob]

Yes I did block you but as I mentioned in a recent post I unblocked you, probably a mistake, as I can see most of your gibberish when others reply to your train wreck of posts anyway.

I have not bothered responding to your continual misinformation about bank funding as for anyone in the know, it just displays your complete arrogance & ignorance.

Although it's not their main source of funding most commercial banks borrow from their central bank as it smoothes their liquidity as well as provides them with capability to lend more to their customers. Even in NZ the banks here use the RBNZ mechanism.

https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/116767/asb-biggest-user-public-money-offer-reserve-banks-funding-lending-programme#:~:text=Banks%20are%20free%20to%20use,bi llion%2C%20and%20Kiwibank%20%241.1%20billion.


I hadn't seen your post about unblocking me.

Yes the RBNZ mechanism is how the OCR is implemented.

[BlackPeter]

BP is saying you can get nowhere looking at the past of a company as it's the future that matters... Missing the point.

This is not what I said. You are lying. I suggest you read my posts and come back.

Problem is you are not even able to read and understand ... maybe something you should work on before you start lecturing and bullying the rest of the world.

On the other hand - bullies are terrible learners :p ;

[SailorRob]

This is not what I said. You are lying. I suggest you read my posts and come back.

Problem is you are not even able to read and understand ... maybe something you should work on before you start lecturing and bullying the rest of the world.

On the other hand - bullies are terrible learners :p ;


'Past data analysis will never give you outstanding future returns ... given that past data analysis gives you just that - a picture of the past, not a picture of the future'.


Well it's worked pretty well for me old boy. You must speak for yourself.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-black-monday-in-1987-1929-and-2015-3305818

Key Takeaways


The first Black Monday was October 28, 1929; it was the first Monday after Black Thursday, which kicked off the stock market crash of 1929.
The sell-off did not start the Great Depression of 1929, but it set the stage by shattering confidence in business investing.
Black Monday is used most often to refer to the second-largest one-day percentage drop in stock market history, which occurred on October 19, 1987.
The most recent Black Monday, on March 9, 2020, came a few days before the Dow entered a bear market, ending an 11-year bull market.

[Valuegrowth]

https://insights.masterworks.com/finance/5-stages-of-an-asset-bubble/ (https://insights.masterworks.com/finance/5-stages-of-an-asset-bubble/) 5 Stages of an Asset Bubble

"way to avoid investing in a bubble is to not invest if you don’t believe the underlying value of an asset justifies the mania."

[Habits]

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-black-monday-in-1987-1929-and-2015-3305818

Key Takeaways


The first Black Monday was October 28, 1929; it was the first Monday after Black Thursday, which kicked off the stock market crash of 1929.
The sell-off did not start the Great Depression of 1929, but it set the stage by shattering confidence in business investing.
Black Monday is used most often to refer to the second-largest one-day percentage drop in stock market history, which occurred on October 19, 1987.
The most recent Black Monday, on March 9, 2020, came a few days before the Dow entered a bear market, ending an 11-year bull market.



Haven't there been other black trading days between 29 and 87. Like 1969

[Valuegrowth]

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/08/30/the-forgotten-bear-market/

Haven't there been other black trading days between 29 and 87. Like 1969

[BlackPeter]

'Past data analysis will never give you outstanding future returns ... given that past data analysis gives you just that - a picture of the past, not a picture of the future'.


Well it's worked pretty well for me old boy. You must speak for yourself.

Well, if this is the only thing you are doing, than either you have been lucky or you are telling porkies.

And don't get me wrong, of course is analysis of the past one important component to assess an investment. It is one useful input (if you can get it) of many inputs you need, but on its own it is pretty useless - roughly as useful as doing a really thorough linear extrapolation in a cyclical world.

Some companies don't have a past - how do you assess whether they are worthwhile your buck?

Most companies change over time - so what's the point of deeply analysing 15 year old books if they have a new CFO and management team, or even if the old team just learned new tricks?

Many companies have a glorious past (and even healthy books) - and due to a change in the ever changing environment and technology nobody is interested in their products anymore. I recon you would have done an amazing deep dive into Polaroids books and backed up the truck. I am sure the books looked really good, until customers decided to buy these digital cameras instead.

[Bobdn]

Polaroid was the Apple of it's day.

[alokdhir]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the-monitor/132250739/nz-has-reached-peak-interest-rate-and-may-be-one-of-the-first-to-start-cutting

While our stocks are lagging others ...maybe some catch up on the cards !!

[bull....]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the-monitor/132250739/nz-has-reached-peak-interest-rate-and-may-be-one-of-the-first-to-start-cutting

While our stocks are lagging others ...maybe some catch up on the cards !!

kiwibank saying other day 40% of there loan book on fixed mtge's coming off next 6 mth's odd so that would emply real pain still to come in NZ economy later this yr esp if other banks similar position which i believe they are. that implies company profits have still a way to implode on the downside. so dont see the nzx charging materially higher anytime soon

[Entrep]

kiwibank saying other day 40% of there loan book on fixed mtge's coming off next 6 mth's odd so that would emply real pain still to come in NZ economy later this yr esp if other banks similar position which i believe they are. that implies company profits have still a way to implode on the downside. so dont see the nzx charging materially higher anytime soon

For sure. The same feeling just talking to friends who are not fixed. Quite a bit of anxiety out there.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/the-monitor/132250739/nz-has-reached-peak-interest-rate-and-may-be-one-of-the-first-to-start-cutting

While our stocks are lagging others ...maybe some catch up on the cards !!

I like the sound of that - and yes, if we don't play our hand to daft, we might even end up as the Switzerland of the South Pacific :t_up: ;

[BlackPeter]

For sure. The same feeling just talking to friends who are not fixed. Quite a bit of anxiety out there.

Of course - anxiety is the only tool to effectively reduce household spending, which we need to reduce inflation.

On the other hand - unemployment is low - i.e. people do have an income stream. Maybe its just a question to reprioritise spending and maybe change the lifestyle a bit.

Do they need this new car, when the old one is still perfectly fine? Do we really need two SUV's to park in front of many town houses, if some more economical cars would do as well? Do we really need to buy every season new clothes when the old ones still look good? Do we really need to travel overseas every year when the local beach is just a stone throw away? Do we really need to throw away plenty of good fruit just because it has a mark but is quite edible? Do we really need to spend lots of money for smokes, vapes and alcohol? Do we really need to spend the Friday evenings in the local pub instead of meeting with friends at home?

While I feel for your friends, I think a bit of anxiety (causing caution) is a good sign. Obviously - there always will be really difficult cases, and others just never learned how to budget money. Another failure of our education system.

Looking however at the big picture - while it clearly is important for all of us to reassess the way we do live, it all depends as well on how the incoming government as well as the RBNZ will play their respective hands in the coming months.

However - there clearly is hope and there are huge opportunities ahead. Lets embrace them.

[Valuegrowth]

Now analysts are talking about weaker 2024. Fed rates cut to begin in 2024.

https://www.abnamro.com/research/en/our-research/us-recession-to-start-in-q4-fed-cuts-delayed-to-march

[Bobdn]

It's just a pity that "AI" is the in thing. When Power Boards and Old People's Homes are the next best thing, the NZX is going to rip.

[BlackPeter]

It's just a pity that "AI" is the in thing. When Power Boards and Old People's Homes are the next best thing, the NZX is going to rip.

You mean there is a chance NZ might miss one of these bubbles? This might be even a good thing ...

[SailorRob]

Well, if this is the only thing you are doing, than either you have been lucky or you are telling porkies.

There is NO question that I have had a hell of a lot of luck over the last few years. Holding a huge chunk of Occidental warrants last year when the company (let alone the warrants) were the top performing stock in the S&P500, and then this year having a large META position when it'ssecond to top in the S&P500, can only be luck. Any investor in the world including Buffett would kill to be in my position.

And don't get me wrong, of course is analysis of the past one important component to assess an investment. It is one useful input (if you can get it) of many inputs you need, but on its own it is pretty useless - roughly as useful as doing a really thorough linear extrapolation in a cyclical world.

Some companies don't have a past - how do you assess whether they are worthwhile your buck?

YOU DO NOT. It's that simple, stay away.

Most companies change over time - so what's the point of deeply analysing 15 year old books if they have a new CFO and management team, or even if the old team just learned new tricks?

STAY AWAY

Many companies have a glorious past (and even healthy books) - and due to a change in the ever changing environment and technology nobody is interested in their products anymore. I recon you would have done an amazing deep dive into Polaroids books and backed up the truck. I am sure the books looked really good, until customers decided to buy these digital cameras instead.

Fair point. Much more to it than ONLY looking at the past.

The BIG money is in figuring out what will stay the same, not what will change.

[SailorRob]

I like the sound of that - and yes, if we don't play our hand to daft, we might even end up as the Switzerland of the South Pacific :t_up: ;


Don't like the sound.

Lower prices are better than high.

If you can buy NZ's businesses in aggregate for less then obviously better.

[bull....]

asx cpi just come in much lower than expected put rocket under the asx

[alokdhir]

kiwibank saying other day 40% of there loan book on fixed mtge's coming off next 6 mth's odd so that would emply real pain still to come in NZ economy later this yr esp if other banks similar position which i believe they are. that implies company profits have still a way to implode on the downside. so dont see the nzx charging materially higher anytime soon

One need to keep in mind that NZX index and top 10 stocks have very little correlation to actual NZ economy ....companies like WHS / TRA / RBD etc have very little weightage in Index ...these are the ones which get effected by your imploding profits forecast ....while FPH / IFT / SPK / EBO / MFT etc will be doing well thus index will be merry while real economy hurting ...hopefully u will appreciate the point I am trying to make here mate