Black Monday

[SailorRob]

It could have been worse without the quake though.

Please tell me you're kidding.

Which other New Zealand city would you choose to flatten in order for us to have a better economy?

[Panda-NZ-]

We already have one (we'll only have to import all the workers).

I vote somewhere which needs to modernise and include 21st century things like good public transport and urban planning (Auckland it is then).

[Daytr]

Bit like in the budget when they said one of the factors helping NZ avoid recession was the Cyclone Gabrielle rebuild.

Almost implying that it was positive to have a natural disaster.

Well that's taken completely out of context.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/a-long-winded-case-for-new-zealands-super-boring-stocks

Above article was published in 2021. Still there are some valid points for value investors.

Quoted from the above link.

“ Robert Jeremy Goltho Grantham CBE is the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm with quite a few billions of US dollars of assets under management. Grantham is in his 80s these days, but gained influence as an investor after correctly calling the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the dramatic GFC downturn in 2008.

Grantham doesn’t know when this big bang will happen, and he admits that while he got 2000 and 2008 right, he was three years early on the 1989 Japanese bubble bursting – GMO got out of Japan and the market continued to rise and rise. (“There is nothing more supremely irritating than watching your neighbors get rich,” he says.)
But Grantham predicts the next few months, maybe years, will be “intellectually exciting and terrifying at the same time”.

When good value becomes overvalued

Historically, the average PE ratio – in the US at least – was around 15. Put another way, investors were prepared to pay an average of $15 for one dollar of a company’s earnings.

Trouble is, markets have gone a bit crazy recently, and that’s hiked PE values. Sometimes to crazy levels. Tesla: 1692. Zoom: 483. Netflix: 91. Amazon: 91.

Market capitalisation is another traditionally-used matrix to judge a company. The theory is: large market capitalisation = big solid company = less risk. Until you look at what’s happened with Tesla, for example.

GMO analysts calculate that Tesla’s market cap, now over $600 billion, is bigger than the total market cap of all the other US automakers, plus all the European automakers, and all the Korean automakers, with Honda, Mazda, and Nissan thrown in. That’s despite Tesla selling approximately 100 times fewer cars than the other car makers
“What has 1929 got to equal that?” Grantham says.

Then there’s net tangible assets per share, or NTA. That’s the theoretical value of a company’s physical assets divided by the number of shares on issue.

A cunning investment strategy used to be to look for a company whose share price was less than its NTA.
Good luck with that. As share prices have soared, so NTA values have got increasingly out of line. Mainfreight’s NTA is $7, it’s share price $68.60. At Port of Tauranga, the NTA is $1.7, the share price $7.50.


NZ has big PEs too

Back to P/Es (price to earnings ratios). Another slightly scary thing I did last week was spend an hour or so perusing the PEs of New Zealand companies. Remember the average long term PE in the US is around 15. Maybe a bit higher in New Zealand, where investment money is chasing fewer listed stocks.

Not any more. Around the top of the range of NZX stocks, AFT Pharmaceuticals has a PE of 126, Michael Hill Jeweller is at 157, AMP 191, Meridian 108, GPS fleet systems company ERoad is at 168, Kathmandu 80, Genesis 82.
Crazy, huh?

Pockets of over-exuberance

Brad Gordon says many share prices are inflated.
“It’s time to be selective in your investments. There are certainly bubbles in there. There are pockets of value and pockets of over-exuberance.”
How can you tell?

Markets always go down in the end

Nikko’s George Carter is worried a bad experience in a downturn will put these new and enthusiastic investors off – possibly for good.

“We know markets will go down. My worry is there are people who have invested in the market but aren’t prepared for what it looks like when your balance drops 10-30 percent.”

Don’t bother trying to time the market
Of course, there’s no guarantee an expert is going to get it right any more than someone on a share chatroom. Timing is virtually impossible.

“In the long run, elevated valuations here should equate to lower future returns, based on the assumption that valuations ‘should’ normalise to lower absolute and relative long term averages,” says Mark Riggall, portfolio manager at investment company Milford.

“However, timing that is fraught with difficulties and there is no reason why New Zealand share valuations can’t retain their current premium (or even attain a higher premium) for the foreseeable future.
“For investors, it pays to stick with long term investing goals and not be swayed by short term deviations in markets (up and down).”

Even if the market crashes?

“As equity investors we don’t talk crashes, we talk volatility. Markets will get frothy and they will get oversold.”
Boring sounds OK.”

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/reserve-bank-house-prices-remain-overvalued-and-risk-falling-a-lot-more/YU4BZ7YP2BBSXORNJZ6DZZC4C4/

[SailorRob]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/a-long-winded-case-for-new-zealands-super-boring-stocks

Above article was published in 2021. Still there are some valid points for value investors.

Quoted from the above link.

“ Robert Jeremy Goltho Grantham CBE is the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm with quite a few billions of US dollars of assets under management. Grantham is in his 80s these days, but gained influence as an investor after correctly calling the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the dramatic GFC downturn in 2008.

Grantham doesn’t know when this big bang will happen, and he admits that while he got 2000 and 2008 right, he was three years early on the 1989 Japanese bubble bursting – GMO got out of Japan and the market continued to rise and rise. (“There is nothing more supremely irritating than watching your neighbors get rich,” he says.)
But Grantham predicts the next few months, maybe years, will be “intellectually exciting and terrifying at the same time”.

When good value becomes overvalued

Historically, the average PE ratio – in the US at least – was around 15. Put another way, investors were prepared to pay an average of $15 for one dollar of a company’s earnings.

Trouble is, markets have gone a bit crazy recently, and that’s hiked PE values. Sometimes to crazy levels. Tesla: 1692. Zoom: 483. Netflix: 91. Amazon: 91.

Market capitalisation is another traditionally-used matrix to judge a company. The theory is: large market capitalisation = big solid company = less risk. Until you look at what’s happened with Tesla, for example.

GMO analysts calculate that Tesla’s market cap, now over $600 billion, is bigger than the total market cap of all the other US automakers, plus all the European automakers, and all the Korean automakers, with Honda, Mazda, and Nissan thrown in. That’s despite Tesla selling approximately 100 times fewer cars than the other car makers
“What has 1929 got to equal that?” Grantham says.

Then there’s net tangible assets per share, or NTA. That’s the theoretical value of a company’s physical assets divided by the number of shares on issue.

A cunning investment strategy used to be to look for a company whose share price was less than its NTA.
Good luck with that. As share prices have soared, so NTA values have got increasingly out of line. Mainfreight’s NTA is $7, it’s share price $68.60. At Port of Tauranga, the NTA is $1.7, the share price $7.50.


NZ has big PEs too

Back to P/Es (price to earnings ratios). Another slightly scary thing I did last week was spend an hour or so perusing the PEs of New Zealand companies. Remember the average long term PE in the US is around 15. Maybe a bit higher in New Zealand, where investment money is chasing fewer listed stocks.

Not any more. Around the top of the range of NZX stocks, AFT Pharmaceuticals has a PE of 126, Michael Hill Jeweller is at 157, AMP 191, Meridian 108, GPS fleet systems company ERoad is at 168, Kathmandu 80, Genesis 82.
Crazy, huh?

Pockets of over-exuberance

Brad Gordon says many share prices are inflated.
“It’s time to be selective in your investments. There are certainly bubbles in there. There are pockets of value and pockets of over-exuberance.”
How can you tell?

Markets always go down in the end

Nikko’s George Carter is worried a bad experience in a downturn will put these new and enthusiastic investors off – possibly for good.

“We know markets will go down. My worry is there are people who have invested in the market but aren’t prepared for what it looks like when your balance drops 10-30 percent.”

Don’t bother trying to time the market
Of course, there’s no guarantee an expert is going to get it right any more than someone on a share chatroom. Timing is virtually impossible.

“In the long run, elevated valuations here should equate to lower future returns, based on the assumption that valuations ‘should’ normalise to lower absolute and relative long term averages,” says Mark Riggall, portfolio manager at investment company Milford.

“However, timing that is fraught with difficulties and there is no reason why New Zealand share valuations can’t retain their current premium (or even attain a higher premium) for the foreseeable future.
“For investors, it pays to stick with long term investing goals and not be swayed by short term deviations in markets (up and down).”

Even if the market crashes?

“As equity investors we don’t talk crashes, we talk volatility. Markets will get frothy and they will get oversold.”
Boring sounds OK.”




Valuegrowth, what part of the country are you in and can you introduce me to your dealer please, you are on some good $hit and I'd like to get me some if possible.

The S&P500 began the year bang on the 25 year average forward PE ratio. Read my lips. Bang on. It is ever so slightly above the average now.

Now if you take the top 10 companies out of the S&P500 and look at the average PE of the other 490... What do you find Valuegrowth?

You have highlighted some of the companies you have found with ridiculously high ratios, where is your highlighting of all the ones with PE ratios of less than 5 both here and in America? Where is your margin analysis to go with your earnings?

With your incredible NTA analysis, are you sure it's just surging prices that has elevated them, or is something else going on.
Is that the same Grantham who predicted the great crash of 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and now the mother of all crashes that was due in 6 months time around 2 years ago but still coming? That guy?

Please tell us how he 'correctly called the dot com and GFC' give us a detailed analysis.

Jake would say, too much weights not enough speed work, then something else which I wont repeat.

Get with the program for your own sake.

Yes there is some expensive stuff out there, so what? Were also in the middle of a GFC like decimation for hundreds if not thousands of companies.

Write us an article about the hundreds of companies that are trading below 2012 levels with single digit PE's and when the last time was that we had such a massive amount of them to choose from.

[bull....]

New Zealand’s Central Bank Set to Raise Interest Rates, Leave Door Open for More


New Zealand’s central bank is poised to raise interest rates for a 12th straight meeting and may signal it’s not done yet as surging immigration and looser fiscal policy counter its efforts to curb demand.
The Reserve Bank will lift the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% Wednesday in Wellington, according to 18 of 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-22/rbnz-poised-to-hike-rates-leave-door-ajar-to-further-tightening


and lets not forget real rates are still negative

[Daytr]

Hi Valuegrowth, I thought this was interesting. Been playing long NASDAQ vs short either Russell 2000 or S&P500 for a while now & has been paying off rather well.

23 May 2023 06:15
LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 tech sector has reached a major milestone
* Nasdaq gains, S&P 500 edges higher, DJI dips

* Comm svcs leads S&P 500 sector gainers; staples weakest
group

* Dollar, bitcoin edge up; crude gains; gold slips

* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.70%

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to
you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at

S&P 500 TECH SECTOR HAS REACHED A MAJOR MILESTONE (1415
EDT/1815 GMT)

The S&P 500 tech sector has accomplished a major feat.

Indeed, over the past week, the tech sector /S&P
500 index ratio hit all-time highs:

As the Y2K tech bubble was about to pop, the SPLRCT/SPX
ratio hit 0.651 on March 10, 2000. Shortly thereafter, or 10
trading days later, the S&P 500 posted a record high close on
March 24, 2000, before beginning a severe bear market.

More recently, on December 10, 2021, the ratio once again
topped at 0.651. The S&P 500 established its record-high close
15 trading days later, or January 3, 2022. The SPX then once
again kicked off a bear-market decline.

On Tuesday of last week, the SPLRCT/SPX ratio finally
exceeded 0.651. Four trading days later, it now stands at 0.66
on Monday. And this with SPLRCT still down about 11% from its
late-December 2021 record high, and the SPX still off about 12%
from its January 2022 peak.

It now remains to be seen if this modest breakout so far in
tech sector relative strength vs the SPX to new all-time highs
will prove sustainable, or if it will be short-lived, and once
again precede a severe reversal in the benchmark index.

Indeed, with much attention being paid to weak breadth, and
the handful of tech-titans/FANG index names, that have
been driving the market higher this year, a sudden sharp
reversal in tech's relative strength back below its former
peaks, in the absence of a major rotation or broadening, may
leave the market especially vulnerable to decline.

(Terence Gabriel)

*****

[SailorRob]

Hi Valuegrowth, I thought this was interesting. Been playing long NASDAQ vs short either Russell 2000 or S&P500 for a while now & has been paying off rather well.

23 May 2023 06:15
LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 tech sector has reached a major milestone
* Nasdaq gains, S&P 500 edges higher, DJI dips

* Comm svcs leads S&P 500 sector gainers; staples weakest
group

* Dollar, bitcoin edge up; crude gains; gold slips

* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.70%

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to
you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at

S&P 500 TECH SECTOR HAS REACHED A MAJOR MILESTONE (1415
EDT/1815 GMT)

The S&P 500 tech sector has accomplished a major feat.

Indeed, over the past week, the tech sector /S&P
500 index ratio hit all-time highs:

As the Y2K tech bubble was about to pop, the SPLRCT/SPX
ratio hit 0.651 on March 10, 2000. Shortly thereafter, or 10
trading days later, the S&P 500 posted a record high close on
March 24, 2000, before beginning a severe bear market.

More recently, on December 10, 2021, the ratio once again
topped at 0.651. The S&P 500 established its record-high close
15 trading days later, or January 3, 2022. The SPX then once
again kicked off a bear-market decline.

On Tuesday of last week, the SPLRCT/SPX ratio finally
exceeded 0.651. Four trading days later, it now stands at 0.66
on Monday. And this with SPLRCT still down about 11% from its
late-December 2021 record high, and the SPX still off about 12%
from its January 2022 peak.

It now remains to be seen if this modest breakout so far in
tech sector relative strength vs the SPX to new all-time highs
will prove sustainable, or if it will be short-lived, and once
again precede a severe reversal in the benchmark index.

Indeed, with much attention being paid to weak breadth, and
the handful of tech-titans/FANG index names, that have
been driving the market higher this year, a sudden sharp
reversal in tech's relative strength back below its former
peaks, in the absence of a major rotation or broadening, may
leave the market especially vulnerable to decline.

(Terence Gabriel)

*****

We don't 'play' around here sport. We're not children.

[alokdhir]

TMRW RBNZ show ...short term direction wud depend upon 25or 50 bips ....market looking for 25 ...but not looking for either a pause or 50 bips

Pause 5% chance ...25 bips 50% ...50bips 45% ...but how many times stocks will tumble on rate worries ...bear fatigue setting in ?? Bull shud know ...

[stoploss]

TMRW RBNZ show ...short term direction wud depend upon 25or 50 bips ....market looking for 25 ...but not looking for either a pause or 50 bips

Pause 5% chance ...25 bips 50% ...50bips 45% ...but how many times stocks will tumble on rate worries ...bear fatigue setting in ?? Bull shud know ...
Wholesale market via the OIS curve has 100 % priced in 25 points tomorrow and a 75 % chance of of 50. Trading @ 5.63 %

[alokdhir]

Wholesale market via the OIS curve has 100 % priced in 25 points tomorrow and a 75 % chance of of 50. Trading @ 5.63 %

50 bips is worrying stocks for last two days ...RBNZ may oblige ...but then what ? Sure shot recession fears will take over and then long term rates will start tumbling and that will be the start of the recovery via growth stocks ?? Same old script ...or something new this time...

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you for the information. I can get some great ideas. Good on you for your NASDAQ play. On the other hand Hedge funds lost massively by shorting NASDAQ. Now I am wary about NASDAQ.
Hi Valuegrowth, I thought this was interesting. Been playing long NASDAQ vs short either Russell 2000 or S&P500 for a while now & has been paying off rather well.

23 May 2023 06:15
LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 tech sector has reached a major milestone
* Nasdaq gains, S&P 500 edges higher, DJI dips

* Comm svcs leads S&P 500 sector gainers; staples weakest
group

* Dollar, bitcoin edge up; crude gains; gold slips

* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.70%

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to
you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at

S&P 500 TECH SECTOR HAS REACHED A MAJOR MILESTONE (1415
EDT/1815 GMT)

The S&P 500 tech sector has accomplished a major feat.

Indeed, over the past week, the tech sector /S&P
500 index ratio hit all-time highs:

As the Y2K tech bubble was about to pop, the SPLRCT/SPX
ratio hit 0.651 on March 10, 2000. Shortly thereafter, or 10
trading days later, the S&P 500 posted a record high close on
March 24, 2000, before beginning a severe bear market.

More recently, on December 10, 2021, the ratio once again
topped at 0.651. The S&P 500 established its record-high close
15 trading days later, or January 3, 2022. The SPX then once
again kicked off a bear-market decline.

On Tuesday of last week, the SPLRCT/SPX ratio finally
exceeded 0.651. Four trading days later, it now stands at 0.66
on Monday. And this with SPLRCT still down about 11% from its
late-December 2021 record high, and the SPX still off about 12%
from its January 2022 peak.

It now remains to be seen if this modest breakout so far in
tech sector relative strength vs the SPX to new all-time highs
will prove sustainable, or if it will be short-lived, and once
again precede a severe reversal in the benchmark index.

Indeed, with much attention being paid to weak breadth, and
the handful of tech-titans/FANG index names, that have
been driving the market higher this year, a sudden sharp
reversal in tech's relative strength back below its former
peaks, in the absence of a major rotation or broadening, may
leave the market especially vulnerable to decline.

(Terence Gabriel)

*****

[Daytr]

Yeah the NASDAQ is looking over extended now for mine. I'm hoping for a decent pullback to go long again.

[SailorRob]

Yeah the NASDAQ is looking over extended now for mine. I hoping for a decent pullback to go long again.

Hope is a great strategy.

[bull....]

Yeah the NASDAQ is looking over extended now for mine. I'm hoping for a decent pullback to go long again.

nice pull back on the nasdaq from resistance , guess debt ceiling jitters will play out shortly

[alokdhir]

Wholesale market via the OIS curve has 100 % priced in 25 points tomorrow and a 75 % chance of of 50. Trading @ 5.63 %

Most likely 50 bips coming today ...markets will be under pressure ...RBNZ may have to do that to hold current rates expectations of market ...they must be happy that rates expectations have swung on higher side since budget looking for $ 20 B extra borrowings over next 4 years ...Budget getting big negative press about it and RBNZ will try to nail them further by doing whats being expected ...show to people that labour brought this trouble to u ...make them very unpopular when going is to get very tough for most mortgage holders ...politics saying doing 50bips is sweet revenge at present ...will 75 bips be very outrageous ??

[mike2020]

Most likely 50 bips coming today ...markets will be under pressure ...RBNZ may have to do that to hold current rates expectations of market ...they must be happy that rates expectations have swung on higher side since budget looking for $ 20 B extra borrowings over next 4 years ...Budget getting big negative press about it and RBNZ will try to nail them further by doing whats being expected ...show to people that labour brought this trouble to u ...make them very unpopular when going is to get very tough for most mortgage holders ...politics saying doing 50bips is sweet revenge at present ...will 75 bips be very outrageous ??

What will that do to your kfl holding? I also have a few as a long term trust holding.

[alokdhir]

What will that do to your kfl holding? I also have a few as a long term trust holding.

What more it can do ...its already at 8% discount...but yes ..it can go further discount and NAV drop also ...but my KFL holdings are meant to be super long term so eventually they will be doing what they meant to do ...

No one buys KFL for trading ...they are bought for income ...and they will keep doing that ...short term SP movements shud not matter to LT investors like us

[Onemootpoint]

What more it can do ...its already at 8% discount...but yes ..it can go further discount and NAV drop also ...but my KFL holdings are meant to be super long term so eventually they will be doing what they meant to do ...

No one buys KFL for trading ...they are bought for income ...and they will keep doing that ...short term SP movements shud not matter to LT investors like us

Hear hear. Good points.

[alokdhir]

Bank economists are getting very worried I am told ...Blackrock is also very negative US markets ...Govt future financing needs and China recalling foreign sovereign debt is causing lot of concern to them for stability of financial markets ....Just thinking a small country like NZ has budgeted $20B EXTRA borrowing in next 4 years ...from where ? and will more cash requirements put more pressure on rates thus starting a vicious cycle ...main source of sovereign debt buyer China maybe start holding hand for various reasons ...they are painting a difficult conditions ahead ...Stagflation...what not ...but is it too much worrying or it gets darkest before dawn syndrome ??

[Daytr]

Thank you for the information. I can get some great ideas. Good on you for your NASDAQ play. On the other hand Hedge funds lost massively by shorting NASDAQ. Now I am wary about NASDAQ.


nice pull back on the nasdaq from resistance , guess debt ceiling jitters will play out shortly
Yeah one of those would've, could've moments yesterday about shorting the NASDAQ, howeverI think it's a much more disciplined wager to wait for a decent pullback and play from the long side. Much happier to play the S&P & Russell 2000 from the short side. Currently short the Russell as of yesterday so nice little win overnight but holding out for lower.

[causecelebre]

Bank economists are getting very worried I am told ...Blackrock is also very negative US markets ...Govt future financing needs and China recalling foreign sovereign debt is causing lot of concern to them for stability of financial markets ....Just thinking a small country like NZ has budgeted $20B EXTRA borrowing in next 4 years ...from where ? and will more cash requirements put more pressure on rates thus starting a vicious cycle ...main source of sovereign debt buyer China maybe start holding hand for various reasons ...they are painting a difficult conditions ahead ...Stagflation...what not ...but is it too much worrying or it gets darkest before dawn syndrome ??


from where? No doubt the govt will mis-manage similar to what they did last time they raised $55b : Mis-price the bonds which no one in their right mind would buy, so treasury buys them themselves and are now having to selling at a huge loss. Or maybe they will learn and do a book build....or maybe take advice from people who actually know what they are doing

[winner69]

OCR up only 0.25%

Most commemtators wrong again

[Muse]

*current* OCR track only shows 5.5% peak - that would be a relief! Although of course will be data dependent and rbnz track record of forecasting its own OCR has been poor.

[causecelebre]

The RBNZ are just reacting to their data. I’m not surprised to be honest. They can’t knee jerk react based on what the congniscenti believe. Remember economists have predicted 40 of the last 3 recessions. More telling will be in the announcement at 3pm

[bull....]

only surprise was them thinking inflation going to fall back so fast .. risk looking silly later on if it becomes sticky

[alokdhir]

OCR up only 0.25%

Most commemtators wrong again

Actually most are right as market had priced 25bips ...0 or 50 wud have been a bigger surprise ...but like U said ...this is the one better to be wrong ...see market is actually happy ..its come back almost fully ...with NZD sulking to 6180

[alokdhir]

Today bigger surprise number was retail sales ...much below market expectations -1.4% actuals vs +0.2% expected !!!

[Muse]

Today bigger surprise number was retail sales ...much below market expectations -1.4% actuals vs +0.2% expected !!!

Yes woeful retail volumes

Aussie retail also getting some nasty data points in…CBA retail card spending down and a lot of really negative (shock) profit updates last 24 hours

[alokdhir]

*current* OCR track only shows 5.5% peak - that would be a relief! Although of course will be data dependent and rbnz track record of forecasting its own OCR has been poor.

First time Vote needed ...so there was no consensus ...Vote count ?? Who has read MPS ? U r most likely to....enlighten us also please

[Muse]

First time Vote needed ...so there was no consensus ...Vote count ?? Who has read MPS ? U r most likely to....enlighten us also please

I just looked at the OCR track in the excel file - first thing I went to. Haven’t read the MPS or anything other than the summary announcement.

[SailorRob]

*current* OCR track only shows 5.5% peak - that would be a relief! Although of course will be data dependent and rbnz track record of forecasting its own OCR has been poor.

Relief to who? The debt holders who've had zero for 12 years? Elderly savers? Or imbeciles who borrowed 900% of net worth for a dung box that produces nothing.

[Daytr]

Most home loan borrowers are yet to roll onto the new rates. This will continue to increase over the next 18 months.
Orr said at the last meeting that banks hadn't passed on the previous rate rise, so here's another 50bp.
That says to me he wasn't wanting to go 50bps last time but the banks forced his hand.
This time around the banks are doing the opposite and factoring in 50bps.
My guess is that Reserve Bank will either go into holding pattern to see the impact of what they have already done or go 25bps.

Pretty much as I called it.
Great news for mortgage holders particularly those who purchased in the last 2 years.
Also great news for NZ stocks & exporters who will benefit from a lower dollar.

[Valuegrowth]

Markets are not out of the woods yet.That doesn't mean there are no opportunities in global stock markets. Only intelligent stock pickers will manage to identify them. In my opinion, buying stocks without doing home work is a recipe for disaster in an environment like today.Only positive thing is still average unemplyment rate is lower than long term average. More and more volatitlity, sell-off could prevail in markets untill 2025 at least.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-top-25-market-events-of-the-last-25-years-11665839614

.

[alokdhir]

I just looked at the OCR track in the excel file - first thing I went to. Haven’t read the MPS or anything other than the summary announcement.

"The RBNZ surprised all and sundry by lifting the OCR 25bp and signalling it has most likely done enough to contain inflation. Expectations were spread over a 25bp vs. 50bp for this meeting, and for an eventual peak of 5.75% - 6% (we had expected a 50bp OCR hike today and a 5.75% OCR peak). Rather than a choice between 25bp and 50bp, the RBNZ debated between pausing and lifting the OCR .by 25bp, with the vote 5-2 in favour of an increase."

ASB commentary has answered ...5-2 ...means 2 voted for pause !! Interesting

[mike2020]

"The RBNZ surprised all and sundry by lifting the OCR 25bp and signalling it has most likely done enough to contain inflation. Expectations were spread over a 25bp vs. 50bp for this meeting, and for an eventual peak of 5.75% - 6% (we had expected a 50bp OCR hike today and a 5.75% OCR peak). Rather than a choice between 25bp and 50bp, the RBNZ debated between pausing and lifting the OCR .by 25bp, with the vote 5-2 in favour of an increase."

ASB commentary has answered ...5-2 ...means 2 voted for pause !! Interesting

We all know higher rates take time to filter through as people roll-over off fixed. The actual surprise is the rbnz doing something right for the moment. Give them time, they are sure to mess it up.

[bull....]

ORR statement saying they are done has managed to give nzd a good old savaging on the downside overnight and i guess the nzd dollar could be headed further south now that it is even more at the mercy of what the fed does going forward now.

anyway doesnt a weak nzd + fuel subsidy coming off shortly + supermarkets rorting us on the upside with food prices mean a upside in inflation at some stage ..... ill stick too my sticky inflation outlook at a lower than now level but higher than there 2 - 3% and staying higher for longer than there forward outlook

anyway i see debt ceiling jitters starting to hit markets , volitilty likely to increase the closer to deadline with no out come it becomes. insurance on default is highest its been in history :scared:

[SailorRob]

ORR statement saying they are done has managed to give nzd a good old savaging on the downside overnight and i guess the nzd dollar could be headed further south now that it is even more at the mercy of what the fed does going forward now.

anyway doesnt a weak nzd + fuel subsidy coming off shortly + supermarkets rorting us on the upside with food prices mean a upside in inflation at some stage ..... ill stick too my sticky inflation outlook at a lower than now level but higher than there 2 - 3% and staying higher for longer than there forward outlook

anyway i see debt ceiling jitters starting to hit markets , volitilty likely to increase the closer to deadline with no out come it becomes. insurance on default is highest its been in history :scared:

Is all this like the OCA capital raise that you and Balance saw too?

[JBmurc]

NIVIDA massive after hours kick higher on better revenue numbers ---up USD$170Billion in minutes (NZ Gross GDP USD$250Bill.)

Ai saving the market.....

AI is booming – so is its carbon footprint
AI uses more energy than other forms of computing, and training a single model can gobble up more electricity than 100 US homes use in an entire year...

while US Energy stocks continue to be values very cheaply >>>

Forward P/E
Valero 5.2
APA corp 6.5
Marathon 6
Diamondback 7.2
Exxon 9.9
Shell 6.6

(NIVIDA -67 ...present P/E 170+)

[bull....]

NIVIDA massive after hours kick higher on better revenue numbers ---up USD$170Billion in minutes (NZ Gross GDP USD$250Bill.)

Ai saving the market.....

AI is booming – so is its carbon footprint
AI uses more energy than other forms of computing, and training a single model can gobble up more electricity than 100 US homes use in an entire year...

while US Energy stocks continue to be values very cheaply >>>

Forward P/E
Valero 5.2
APA corp 6.5
Marathon 6
Diamondback 7.2
Exxon 9.9
Shell 6.6

(NIVIDA -67 ...present P/E 170+)

mega tech going berserk this yr .... all hail the AI lol AI told me to say that

[Valuegrowth]

Some say Nivida is going to surpass Apple's valuation. Time to be cautious on the tech sector. At any time there could be sell - off.

[Bobdn]

USF just a whisker away from all time highs now. A lot of cash on the sidelines (I don't have any) waiting...waiting...waiting...

[SailorRob]

USF just a whisker away from all time highs now. A lot of cash on the sidelines (I don't have any) waiting...waiting...waiting...

Please explain what happens to the cash when it's off the sidelines.

The sideline cash gets given to the seller of equity Securities.

And then becomes.

Sideline cash?

[Rawz]

Please explain what happens to the cash when it's off the sidelines.

The sideline cash gets given to the seller of equity Securities.

And then becomes.

Sideline cash?

Sideline cash can be viewed as potential demand for equities right

[Bobdn]

That's right, a potential huge demand.

[SailorRob]

Jesus Christ.

The person you buy your equities off gets the cash. It moves from one account to the next.

It can't be sideline...

[SailorRob]

Someone has to hold every dollar unless loans paid off or defaulted on.

[mike2020]

Na brohemianboatie I got a little sideline money this avo. Even I'm not sure what I will do with it.
Probably buy more shares nec weak.

[SailorRob]

Na brohemianboatie I got a little sideline money this avo. Even I'm not sure what I will do with it.
Probably buy more shares nec weak.

Gud wun hop it iz wurk grayt

[Valuegrowth]

https://countercurrents.org/2023/05/global-debt-increases-to-near-record-highs-305-trillion/

"The IIF warned that the combination of such high debt levels and rising interest rates had pushed up the cost of servicing that debt, prompting concerns about leverage in the financial system."

Quoted from the above link.

[Rawz]

Sailor do you not have cash on the sidelines?

[bull....]

all hail the AI

[SailorRob]

Sailor do you not have cash on the sidelines?

Absolutely not, there are so many incredible opportunities out there right now, only a few times in the last 25 years will you see opportunity like this. I am 100% invested and then some.

I don't trust a debt instrument controlled by Orr and Robertson in cahoots, paying a deeply negative return.

When I can invest in a near certain 12% return I won't hold cash.

[SailorRob]

Sailor do you not have cash on the sidelines?

But the point I'm making is that if I had cash on sidelines and then invested it, the cash would still be on the sidelines.

Just someone else would have it on their sidelines.

[winner69]

But the point I'm making is that if I had cash on sidelines and then invested it, the cash would still be on the sidelines.

Just someone else would have it on their sidelines.

Yep … the cash was kicked into touch and now they having a lineout to get the cash back on the field

[alokdhir]

Yep … the cash was kicked into touch and now they having a lineout to get the cash back on the field

Its doesn't take billions of selling ie cashing out to sidelines to bring down valuations by billions ...eg yesterday FPH valuations dropped much more then the amount of trading ...similarly it goes while going up ...so hype / valuations story plays a role in creating or destroying wealth . Not merely demand and supply story here ...people shud perceive to be buying into something more valuable then its current SP ...ie they shud expect higher future SP ...which is based on some facts like future earnings prospects and some hype ...short term mismatches get equalised fast in current environment .

In nutshell lasting value is created by corporate results and future perceptions of them and current and expected future financial environment not merely by few days of demand / supply mismatch

[winner69]

Yes alokdhir …you complicate matters

What Rob is saying the cash from selling FPH yesterday that went to the sidelines was replaced by cash from the sidelines when the purchasers bought those shares …the amount of cash on the sideline didn’t change

[SailorRob]

Its doesn't take billions of selling ie cashing out to sidelines to bring down valuations by billions ...eg yesterday FPH valuations dropped much more then the amount of trading ...similarly it goes while going up ...so hype / valuations story plays a role in creating or destroying wealth . Not merely demand and supply story here ...people shud perceive to be buying into something more valuable then its current SP ...ie they shud expect higher future SP ...which is based on some facts like future earnings prospects and some hype ...short term mismatches get equalised fast in current environment .

In nutshell lasting value is created by corporate results and future perceptions of them and current and expected future financial environment not merely by few days of demand / supply mismatch


How do you get Billions of selling without Billions of BUYING?

[SailorRob]

Yes alokdhir …you complicate matters

What Rob is saying the cash from selling FPH yesterday that went to the sidelines was replaced by cash from the sidelines when the purchasers bought those shares …the amount of cash on the sideline didn’t change


Correct, the amount of cash cannot change.

When you put your sidelined cash into shares the bank balance of the seller increases as your cash flows to them.

Every dollar must be held on the sideline at all times by someone.

[SailorRob]

Its doesn't take billions of selling ie cashing out to sidelines to bring down valuations by billions ...eg yesterday FPH valuations dropped much more then the amount of trading ...similarly it goes while going up ...so hype / valuations story plays a role in creating or destroying wealth . Not merely demand and supply story here ...people shud perceive to be buying into something more valuable then its current SP ...ie they shud expect higher future SP ...which is based on some facts like future earnings prospects and some hype ...short term mismatches get equalised fast in current environment .

In nutshell lasting value is created by corporate results and future perceptions of them and current and expected future financial environment not merely by few days of demand / supply mismatch


What you are saying here is right, you can destroy billions in value without even any buying or selling.

Market cap of a company can go up 100 billion dollars just with a few hundred dollars traded. Or down.

[SailorRob]

Yes alokdhir …you complicate matters

What Rob is saying the cash from selling FPH yesterday that went to the sidelines was replaced by cash from the sidelines when the purchasers bought those shares …the amount of cash on the sideline didn’t change


Alokdhir is right in that the value of FPH can change far more than the cash that goes in and out.

[SailorRob]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxCaf9hXoAAvugZ?format=jpg&name=small

[bull....]

Correct, the amount of cash cannot change.

When you put your sidelined cash into shares the bank balance of the seller increases as your cash flows to them.

Every dollar must be held on the sideline at all times by someone.

i disagree

the amount of cash can change on the sidelines

fed or other central banks prints new money
people borrow money to invest

all one way or another increases the money on the side lines

in fact you can have the money on the sidelines stay the same but one person who already owns the stock borrows on margin to buy more ie no new money came from the sidelines

[SailorRob]

i disagree

the amount of cash can change on the sidelines

fed or other central banks prints new money
people borrow money to invest

all one way or another increases the money on the side lines

in fact you can have the money on the sidelines stay the same but one person who already owns the stock borrows on margin to buy more ie no new money came from the sidelines


Yes correct, I already covered this.

Creating new loans or paying them back or defaulting will change aggregate cash.

But once it's there it's a hot potato, someone gotta hold it.

I meant the amount of cash that is involved in a buying/selling transaction, people here think that when someones bank balance is used to buy a stock, that cash is not 'in the market and off the sidelines' It is not.

[Valuegrowth]

SailorRob

Line is straight up. Don't you think it's time to be fearful.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxCaf9hXoAAvugZ?format=jpg&name=small

[SailorRob]

SailorRob

Line is straight up. Don't you think it's time to be fearful.

You completely missed the point of the chart.

Study it again.

The line is completely flat for 493 of the 500 companies.

What about the 3000 others beneath.

[Valuegrowth]

I was talking about those tech companies on the first line.
You completely missed the point of the chart.

Study it again.

The line is completely flat for 493 of the 500 companies.

What about the 3000 others beneath.

[SailorRob]

I was talking about those tech companies on the first line.

Yes I think you are probably right.

[Panda-NZ-]

Good time for nvidia and other ai stocks etc to do capital raise to take advantage of being "trendy", for now.

[SailorRob]

Good time for nvidia and other ai stocks etc to do capital raise to take advantage of being "trendy", for now.

Exactly right yep. That would be a great move.

[Valuegrowth]

Some say AI is going to be mini version of Dot-com bubble. We have to wait and see.

[bull....]

equity futures ralling hard on debt ceiling tentative agreement

[SailorRob]

equity futures ralling hard on debt ceiling tentative agreement

Agreement was made in the 1940's...

[Daytr]

equity futures ralling hard on debt ceiling tentative agreement

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of buy the rumour & sell the fact.

[Valuegrowth]

After I went through few companies world wide and seeing their over extended value I am going to be really fearful.But there could be undervalued hidden gems as analysts are busy with writing repors on current popular stocks. Our job should be finding great stocks trading great discount to the market.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit if buy the rumour & sell the fact.

[bull....]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of buy the rumour & sell the fact.

i would think like that too , but momentum in nasdaq super strong at the moment.
watching myself with interest if the rally in nasdaq broadens to the rest of market then ill believe its sustainable other than short term

[SailorRob]

After I went through few companies world wide and seeing their over extended value I am going to be really fearful.But there could be undervalued hidden gems as analysts are busy with writing repors on current popular stocks. Our job should be finding great stocks trading great discount to the market.


https://www.schroders.com/en-us/us/individual/insights/six-charts-that-show-how-cheap-uk-equities-are/

[Valuegrowth]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-stocks-hong-kong-extend-032148456.html

[winner69]

Looking good for rest of year

When markets are down & sideways they had a median return of 9.1% (including dividends and adjusting for inflation) over the next year.

My latest on why the current market environment is bullish for future returns:
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-down-sideways-markets-are-bullish/

[Panda-NZ-]

Thoughts on whether the regional bank issues are resolved?

I'm looking at IAT (ishares regional bank) currently.

[SailorRob]

Thoughts on whether the regional bank issues are resolved?

I'm looking at IAT (ishares regional bank) currently.

Good way to play it, issues not resolved but certainly more visibility.

You have to have more insight than the market I guess to gain from a miss pricing here.

But even the bigger financials etf's are trading at massive discounts to the market.

Hard to see how you don't do OK over next few years.

[bull....]

china is where you should be watching

markets tanking this yr
property market on verge of collapse
economy failing to fire from covid lockdowns like western countries did
exports and industrial profits falling

starting to effect asx stocks recently

[winner69]

OZ CPI defies market expectations …April print 6.8% v expectations 6.4%

More rate hikes in Oz likely

[bull....]

OZ CPI defies market expectations …April print 6.8% v expectations 6.4%

More rate hikes in Oz likely

find out next tuesday

[causecelebre]

Looking good for rest of year

When markets are down & sideways they had a median return of 9.1% (including dividends and adjusting for inflation) over the next year.

My latest on why the current market environment is bullish for future returns:
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-down-sideways-markets-are-bullish/

Do you read Nick Maggiulli as well? I read "Just Keep Buying" last year. Its an excellent read and I subscribe to a lot of what he says in that book. Of course, many here have the ability to actively manage themselves but for other investors the data is compelling

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/31/asia-markets.html

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/schroders-says-investors-should-brace-for-equities-sell-off-20230530-p5dcdt

[bull....]

Australia’s House Prices Rise Sharply in May, Driven by Sydney


Australia’s house prices climbed for a third straight month in May, suggesting further interest-rate increases may be needed to cool resurgent demand that threatens to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-31/australia-s-house-prices-rise-sharply-in-may-driven-by-sydney?srnd=premium-asia

the same is starting to happen here so if follow similar pattern house prices should start to rise soon

Strong population growth in Australia has boosted demand for housing while a supply shortage and persistently low levels of advertised listings are also fueling prices

im guessing this is why anz called a bottom based on aus

anyway it all had to happen as NZ and Aus have large parts of economy reliant on housing so they would never let it collapse

[NeverQuestion]

Australia’s House Prices Rise Sharply in May, Driven by Sydney


Australia’s house prices climbed for a third straight month in May, suggesting further interest-rate increases may be needed to cool resurgent demand that threatens to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the economy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-31/australia-s-house-prices-rise-sharply-in-may-driven-by-sydney?srnd=premium-asia

the same is starting to happen here so if follow similar pattern house prices should start to rise soon

Strong population growth in Australia has boosted demand for housing while a supply shortage and persistently low levels of advertised listings are also fueling prices

im guessing this is why anz called a bottom based on aus

anyway it all had to happen as NZ and Aus have large parts of economy reliant on housing so they would never let it collapse




Central Banks removed house prices from their inflation tracking metrics.. That is why house prices have been climbing so much this past decade, hence why central banks only just started to report that "Inflation" is now exceeding 2%.. So this unlikely to impact interest rate decisions

[causecelebre]

Supposedly the RBNZ mandate doesn't extend to house prices either:


In a speech in 2021, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that "house prices are too high and rising too fast". He warned that "high and rising house prices are a threat to economic stability" and that "they can lead to financial instability, inequality and social unrest".

In a recent speech, Orr said that "the housing market is still too hot" and that "more needs to be done to cool it down". He hinted that the RBNZ may take further steps to cool the market, such as raising interest rates further or introducing a capital gains tax on housing.


Here are some additional comments that the RBNZ has made about house prices in New Zealand:


"House prices are a risk to the economy."
"We need to do more to make housing more affordable."
"We are committed to working with the Government to address the housing crisis."
"We will continue to monitor the housing market closely."

[Valuegrowth]

High and rising land prices affect lending, investment and productivity. High property prices also can have damaging economic effects. Not a good- sign for the financial system and broader economy.

[Daytr]

Supposedly the RBNZ mandate doesn't extend to house prices either:


In a speech in 2021, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that "house prices are too high and rising too fast". He warned that "high and rising house prices are a threat to economic stability" and that "they can lead to financial instability, inequality and social unrest".

In a recent speech, Orr said that "the housing market is still too hot" and that "more needs to be done to cool it down". He hinted that the RBNZ may take further steps to cool the market, such as raising interest rates further or introducing a capital gains tax on housing.


Here are some additional comments that the RBNZ has made about house prices in New Zealand:


"House prices are a risk to the economy."
"We need to do more to make housing more affordable."
"We are committed to working with the Government to address the housing crisis."
"We will continue to monitor the housing market closely."

That's now out of date. Part of their mandate now includes house price stability.

[gbogo]

looks like “sell in May and run away..”!

[causecelebre]

That's now out of date. Part of their mandate now includes house price stability.

Ah yes, the Finance Ministers "Financial Policy Remit".

[Valuegrowth]

Sometimes you can miss the biggest gain in the market.
looks like “sell in May and run away..”!
https://www.cityam.com/should-you-really-sell-may-and-go-away-truth-old-stock/

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/randywatts/2023/05/12/how-accurate-is-sell-in-may-and-go-away/?sh=5ea4cdb66a3b

Quoted from the above link.
"There is an old stock market adage that states that every year one should “sell in May and go away”, not reinvesting in equities until November. This saying is based on the generally held principle that stocks rise more in the 6-month period from November to April than from May to October. The fact that significant market declines have occurred in late summer or early fall – like the 1987 market crash – has helped to reinforce this belief."


Sometimes you can miss the biggest gain in the market.
https://www.cityam.com/should-you-really-sell-may-and-go-away-truth-old-stock/

[ValueNZ]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/randywatts/2023/05/12/how-accurate-is-sell-in-may-and-go-away/?sh=5ea4cdb66a3b

Quoted from the above link.
"There is an old stock market adage that states that every year one should “sell in May and go away”, not reinvesting in equities until November. This saying is based on the generally held principle that stocks rise more in the 6-month period from November to April than from May to October. The fact that significant market declines have occurred in late summer or early fall – like the 1987 market crash – has helped to reinforce this belief."



Why would it make a difference what month it is as to whether you should invest in equities? Your job as an investor is to find underpriced equities and sell them if they become overpriced. If I find a stock that is trading at an attractive price in May, why the hell would I wait until November to invest?

[SailorRob]

Why would it make a difference what month it is as to whether you should invest in equities? Your job as an investor is to find underpriced equities and sell them if they become overpriced. If I find a stock that is trading at an attractive price in May, why the hell would I wait until November to invest?


Thanks ValueNZ I was going to comment but I have put a lot of time and effort into trying to push back on Valuegrowths theories and show them alternative views but I have got precisely nowhere.

[bull....]

all hail the AI ... anyway breaking out above 4200 ? that would imply a move back close to highs

[Daytr]

Why would it make a difference what month it is as to whether you should invest in equities? Your job as an investor is to find underpriced equities and sell them if they become overpriced. If I find a stock that is trading at an attractive price in May, why the hell would I wait until November to invest?
Northern Hemisphere summer holidays. June, July, August, certainly has an influence.
Holiday on Martha's Vineyard or stare at a screen...

[SailorRob]

Northern Hemisphere summer holidays. June, July, August, certainly has an influence.
Holiday on Martha's Vineyard or stare at a screen...


That certainly didn't answer ValueNZ's great question.

[causecelebre]

Market structure since the October lows has been bullish. Next stop 4300?

[Valuegrowth]

If we analyse world markets, we don't see broader market run except for selected crowded stocks.Eg: S & P 500 over 10% gain this year has come from a few large companies. Also we see volatility. Anything goes up very fast like a rocket within the short period will drop rapidly.

[Bobdn]

Yes, good to be in an index. Imagine trying to actually pick stocks. Would be...tricky.

[Bjauck]

Sometimes you can miss the biggest gain in the market.
https://www.cityam.com/should-you-really-sell-may-and-go-away-truth-old-stock/

With the ftse100 British shares it would have been wise to sell on 31 December 1999 and stay away ever since. One GBP was worth $3.10 NZD then. It is worth $2.06 NZD now. The ftse100 (capital index)was 6930 then. It is 7490 now - A whopping 8% increase this century in local currency. (-26% in NZD terms!)

[Valuegrowth]

With the ftse100 British shares it would have been wise to sell on 31 December 1999 and stay away ever since. One GBP was worth $3.10 NZD then. It is worth $2.06 NZD now. The ftse100 (capital index)was 6930 then. It is 7490 now - A whopping 8% increase this century in local currency. (-26% in NZD terms!)
When we invest in foreign markets, we should not ignore Curency risk. But there are two ways to mitigate. 1.Finding out companies which are going to benefit and take positions on them.2.Only invest in multibaggers. I was in a UK forum as well. We have to find out great winners before crowds come in droves. I lost because of Curency. But got above average gain from taking position in one commodity company. In every situation, there are opportunities for intelligent investors and traders.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes, good to be in an index. Imagine trying to actually pick stocks. Would be...tricky.
I should go back to Index funds and study again.

[SailorRob]

With the ftse100 British shares it would have been wise to sell on 31 December 1999 and stay away ever since. One GBP was worth $3.10 NZD then. It is worth $2.06 NZD now. The ftse100 (capital index)was 6930 then. It is 7490 now - A whopping 8% increase this century in local currency. (-26% in NZD terms!)

True, but if you reinvested dividends along the way you would have done OK.

[SailorRob]

When we invest in foreign markets, we should not ignore Curency risk. But there are two ways to mitigate. 1.Finding out companies which are going to benefit and take positions on them.2.Only invest in multibaggers. I was in a UK forum as well. We have to find out great winners before crowds come in droves. I lost because of Curency. But got above average gain from taking position in one commodity company. In every situation, there are opportunities for intelligent investors and traders.

Only invest in multi baggers.

This is a great strategy.

Only invest in 100 baggers is the real way.

[BlackPeter]

Only invest in multi baggers.

This is a great strategy.

Only invest in 100 baggers is the real way.

Bingo - great idea! Invaluable learning lessons in these threads. One wonders why anybody might operate differently :confused: ?

[SailorRob]

Bingo - great idea! Invaluable learning lessons in these threads. One wonders why anybody might operate differently :confused: ?


I know right?

What kind of damned moron wouldn't just invest in multi baggers.

I prefer only to invest in 2 to 300 baggers but can accept the odd higher one.

[bull....]

100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them
The key characteristics of 100-baggers -Why anybody can do this (It is truly an everyman's approach. You don't need an MBA or a finance degree. Some basic financial concepts are all you need.)

https://www.amazon.com.au/100-Baggers-Stocks-100-1/dp/1621291650

[BlackPeter]

100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them
The key characteristics of 100-baggers -Why anybody can do this (It is truly an everyman's approach. You don't need an MBA or a finance degree. Some basic financial concepts are all you need.)

https://www.amazon.com.au/100-Baggers-Stocks-100-1/dp/1621291650


Amazing. Does it come with a money back guarantee ;) ?

[SailorRob]

Amazing. Does it come with a money back guarantee ;) ?


I still don't get why people don't just invest in 100 baggers.

[mistaTea]

I still don't get why people don't just invest in 100 baggers.

When we are thrown pitch after pitch each day, it can be hard not to act when everyone is yelling "Swing, you bum!"

I don't think you need to worry about predicting what might be a 100 bagger as such.

The trick is to find a company that you genuinely intend to hold forever. Then you just set and forget. If you do that over a long period of time you will do just fine, and probably better than average,

You might not get Elon Musk rich, but I am not sure that is a worth goal anyway.

[SailorRob]

‘‘The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves.But unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who knownot what they do.’’

[Valuegrowth]

Thanks to my one and only 50 baggers not only helped me to recover losses that I made in the past but also to stay in the stock market. I recently read a book on great value investors. In their portfolio, at least they had few multi baggers. Very interesting.

There are two types my multi-baggers

1. Speuclative mutil baggers: They send stocks to the roof by telling that they are going to make huge profits as a result of something they have. Eg: They have invested in some minerals

2. True mulitbagger: These companies have strong balance sheets, generating good cash flow, there is a demand for their products in good and bad times.

I only like to find out the second category.


100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them


The key characteristics of 100-baggers -Why anybody can do this (It is truly an everyman's approach. You don't need an MBA or a finance degree. Some basic financial concepts are all you need.)

https://www.amazon.com.au/100-Baggers-Stocks-100-1/dp/1621291650

[SailorRob]

Thanks to my one and only 50 baggers not only helped me to recover losses that I made in the past but also to stay in the stock market. I recently read a book on great value investors. In their portfolio, at least they had few multi baggers. Very interesting.

There are two types my multi-baggers

1. Speuclative mutil baggers: They send stocks to the roof by telling that they are going to make huge profits as a result of something they have. Eg: They have invested in some minerals

2. True mulitbagger: These companies have strong balance sheets, generating good cash flow, there is a demand for their products in good and bad times.


Please enlighten us as to what your 'one and only' 50 bagger was Vlauegrowth.

[Daytr]

Mining companies is where multi baggers is quite a regular event. If you know a bit about geology & mine processing then they can be a fairly reliable punt. Tech is quite similar in a way, however tech is continually changing if the company doesnkeep up then its like a mine that runs out of resources.

[SailorRob]

Mining companies is where multi baggers is quite a regular event. If you know a bit about geology & mine processing then they can be a fairly reliable punt. Tech is quite similar in a way, however tech is continually changing if the company doesnkeep up then its like a mine that runs out of resources.


So then we should see funds with spectacular outperformance records headed by geologists and mine processing experts.

These funds could stay small and easily destroy the market.

Can you name the top five that run on this model.

Thanks.

[Valuegrowth]

Some commodity stocks sky rocketed as a result of rising commodity prices.When there is a demand for medical gloves there were demand for rubber. When all vegetable prices rocketed palm oil prices also rocketed. When gold prices went up gold shares also went up. Now they are falling rapidly along with commodity prices.

"Daytr;Mining companies is where multi baggers is quite a regular event. If you know a bit about geology & mine processing then they can be a fairly reliable punt. Tech is quite similar in a way, however tech is continually changing if the company doesnkeep up then its like a mine that runs out of resources."

[SailorRob]

Thanks to my one and only 50 baggers not only helped me to recover losses that I made in the past but also to stay in the stock market.


Valuegrowth, which company was it that you had a 4000% gain on?

[Valuegrowth]

What about starbucks?
What about home depot? Started as a single store
What about Microsoft?

Those 100- baggers had strong competitive advantage, generated high return on capital over a long period time. I found food stocks also have become 100-baggers after 30 years.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-superstocks-returned-over-10-182202169.html

[SailorRob]

Thanks to my one and only 50 baggers not only helped me to recover losses that I made in the past but also to stay in the stock market.


Valuegrowth, which company was it that you had a 4000% gain on?

[Daytr]

Some commodity stocks sky rocketed as a result of rising commodity prices.When there is a demand for medical gloves there were demand for rubber. When all vegetable prices rocketed palm oil prices also rocketed. When gold prices went up gold shares also went up. Now they are falling rapidly along with commodity prices.

"Daytr;Mining companies is where multi baggers is quite a regular event. If you know a bit about geology & mine processing then they can be a fairly reliable punt. Tech is quite similar in a way, however tech is continually changing if the company doesnkeep up then its like a mine that runs out of resources."

Not just from the rise in commodity prices although that is obviously a factor. I am talking about junior mining companies that convert an exploration program into production. There are countless examples but to name a few. Northern Star Resources, Sandfire, Evolution Mining were all my customers.I remember when Fortescue was a 20c stock, Paladin went from 1c to $10. Hill 50 gold back in the day, Alkane Resources is another that's done well. I have others I am watching now that seem like candidates to replicate those sort of performances. It is high risk, high reward but if you have a background in commodities or Mining you can narrow that risk.

[bull....]

all hail the AI ... anyway breaking out above 4200 ? that would imply a move back close to highs

positive market action on potential breakout today . should get if not already started a big short stop run esp if goes thru 4300
economic news helping too

Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected in resilient labor market
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/02/jobs-report-may-2023-.html


powering the dow

China Mulls New Property Support Package to Boost Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/china-mulls-new-property-market-support-package-to-boost-economy?srnd=premium-asia#xj4y7vzk (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/china-mulls-new-property-market-support-package-to-boost-economy?srnd=premium-asia#xj4y7vzkg)

[bull....]

Not just from the rise in commodity prices although that is obviously a factor. I am talking about junior mining companies that convert an exploration program into production. There are countless examples but to name a few. Northern Star Resources, Sandfire, Evolution Mining were all my customers.I remember when Fortescue was a 20c stock, Paladin went from 1c to $10. Hill 50 gold back in the day, Alkane Resources is another that's done well. I have others I am watching now that seem like candidates to replicate those sort of performances. It is high risk, high reward but if you have a background in commodities or Mining you can narrow that risk.

yep having a small % of portfolio in these spec miners can reap you a true 100 - 1 multibagger as in the names you have mentioned ... high risk for sure as most dont make it or get taken over before there true potential is realised

[Entrep]

I have others I am watching now that seem like candidates to replicate those sort of performances. It is high risk, high reward but if you have a background in commodities or Mining you can narrow that risk.

Care to share some? I am in QPM - come across that?

[Bjauck]

True, but if you reinvested dividends along the way you would have done OK. The current ftse100 dividend yield is 3.78% and has varied between 2.4%-4.5% over this century. So in local £GBP terms - after tax returns may probably be in excess of inflation or a bank deposit.

In NZD terms the compound after tax dividend yield may have beaten NZD inflation (78%) this century*. When you factor in the NZD decline of the Ftse100 capital index, you would probably at best have broken even with inflation or gave gone backwards.

This does not take into account if you can successfully beat the index with stock and sector selection.

* I have not calculated this as tax regime/FIF complicate that.

[Panda-NZ-]

You would have missed out on a x5 increase in the NZX during that time.

Even the ASX 200 has done better.

European stocks are good for picking bottoms though. find a country to invest in then once it hits the support level... BUY.

[Bjauck]

You would have missed out on a x5 increase in the NZX during that time.

Even the ASX 200 has done better.

European stocks are good for picking bottoms though... find a country to invest in then once it hits the support level... BUY.Yes The opportunity cost of investing in the FTSE100 would have been significant over the period.

[Daytr]

Care to share some? I am in QPM - come across that?

No I don't know QPM or any of the board or management. I just skimmed the quarterly and it appears they are more a processing company than a mining company. Is that correct?
Nickel processing always has huge Capex attached to it, dealing with extreme heat & acidic liquid that melts steel in months.

Re companies I am looking at, I will pass on a few names as I get set. A little local gold miner NTL looks like it might finally get going this year. Never going to be huge but at $9M market cap it won't take much for it to double or triple etc.

[clip]

Valuegrowth, which company was it that you had a 4000% gain on?

I'm convinced it's a bot account

[SailorRob]

I'm convinced it's a bot account

Honestly it really seems so to me. I'm not trying to be a fwit. That's why I asked about being foreign, something is off with the comments and answers.

People are playing around with ChatGTP plug ins and testing them at auto communicating with humans etc.

[SailorRob]

Yes The opportunity cost of investing in the FTSE100 would have been significant over the period.

Remember it's not just the addition of dividends but the compound effect of reinvesting them. Should be somewhere that computes it.

[SailorRob]

You would have missed out on a x5 increase in the NZX during that time.

Even the ASX 200 has done better.

European stocks are good for picking bottoms though. find a country to invest in then once it hits the support level... BUY.

What was the time frame you are referring to where NZX has 5 fold increase?

[SailorRob]

You would have missed out on a x5 increase in the NZX during that time.

Even the ASX 200 has done better.

European stocks are good for picking bottoms though. find a country to invest in then once it hits the support level... BUY.


Yeah, you're comparing the NZ50G with the UK index. One Gross one not.

NZ outperformed I'd say but nowhere near 5x vs flat.

UK done just over 4% CAGR from the top of the dot com cycle with dividends reinvested. So with currency you would not have done well at all in NZD.

Not sure what NZX returned from the very top of that cycle but obviously better.

From when the index was invented in 2003 done pretty well but that's off a bottom not a top.

NZ Gross done 8.9% from July 03 vs sp500 9.6 both total returns.

[Valuegrowth]

UK companies who benefit from weak pound are:

Ab Foods(50 bagggar)
Diageo
GSK

[SailorRob]

UK companies who benefit from weak pound are:

Ab Foods(50 bagggar)
Diageo
GSK


Thankyou for that information Valuegrowth.

You have told us that you have had one 50 bagger yourself.

Could you provide us with the name of this company that you personally had a 4000% return from?

Thanks.

[Getty]

Caveat Emptor

[Valuegrowth]

Inside selling isn’t always a bad sign. Inside buying isn’t always a good sign.

Everybody make mistakes in markets.

https://hedgefollow.com/largest-insider-buys.php

Largest Insider Buys

https://hedgefollow.com/largest-insider-sells.php

Largest Insider Sells

[SailorRob]

Inside selling isn’t always a bad sign. Inside buying isn’t always a good sign.

Everybody make mistakes in markets.

https://hedgefollow.com/largest-insider-buys.php

Largest Insider Buys

https://hedgefollow.com/largest-insider-sells.php

Largest Insider Sells


Thankyou for that information Valuegrowth.

You have told us that you have had one 50 bagger yourself.

Could you provide us with the name of this company that you personally had a 4000% return from?

Thanks.

[ValueNZ]

Thankyou for that information Valuegrowth.

You have told us that you have had one 50 bagger yourself.

Could you provide us with the name of this company that you personally had a 4000% return from?
Thanks.
Isn't a 50 bagger a return of 4900%? It is interesting that Valuegrowth hasn't addressed the posts about them being an AI bot... This theory is becoming more and more likely.

[SailorRob]

Isn't a 50 bagger a return of 4900%? It is interesting that Valuegrowth hasn't addressed the posts about them being an AI bot... This theory is becoming more and more likely.


Yes you are correct, 4900%.

This is why Valuegrowth isn't responding. The Bot couldn't figure my human math mistake and the question didn't compute.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYpZmOXZ0pY

[JBmurc]

Yes you are correct, 4900%.

This is why Valuegrowth isn't responding. The Bot couldn't figure my human math mistake and the question didn't compute.

I've yet to see anyone get a 4900% return here on ST(I could if I'd held my CHN shares till peak!!!!! doh) ..but then I'm not looking over very long term that does change the picture somewhat .. and one can use leverage and then you can really make spectacular returns ..but as usual more potential growth = more risk ... If you can handle the risk then yes the ASX has many companies that have and could do those kind of returns

...but for every one that does will be another than crashes and burns ..I de-risk by holding a diverse set of min 8x companies ..also no more than a lower percent in the real high risk x high return stocks .... I don't know anyone on here that takes as much risk as I do ...most on here get excited getting 10-20% returns PA and invest according>>>

I borrow fraction of funds invested ASX from the bank -- (just re-fixed $188k 5.99%) so this is leverage funds my company uses ....now if I reach my 100%+ return Target PA 188k turns into $376k..... costs $11,261pa to 188,000 = 1569% return on costs to loan..

Also the loan interest is fully tax deductible ...

NZ Property has been a great location to use leverage
I once invested into buying 7x sections same street sold year later, the bank used my RES equity so all I spent on the trade was interest on the loan over the year + legal costs + advertising (I sold privately).. made 1700% on funds invested ... pretty safe trade overall ...

..more than happy to hear about these stocks or stock options with potential 50x bag returns this decade

[SailorRob]

I've yet to see anyone get a 4900% return here on ST(I could if I'd held my CHN shares till peak!!!!! doh) ..but then I'm not looking over very long term that does change the picture somewhat .. and one can use leverage and then you can really make spectacular returns ..but as usual more potential growth = more risk ... If you can handle the risk then yes the ASX has many companies that have and could do those kind of returns

...but for every one that does will be another 1000 that crash and burn ..I de-risk by holding a diverse set of min 8x companies ..also no more than a lower percent in the real high risk x high return stocks .... I don't know anyone on here that takes as much risk as I do ...most on here get excited getting 10-20% returns PA and invest according>>> If you can do 20% PA you are basically the best in the world. Certainly worth getting excited about as you'd soon be worth hundreds of millions.

I borrow fraction of funds invested ASX from the bank -- (just re-fixed $188k 5.99%) so this is leverage funds my company uses ....now if I reach my 100%+ return Target PA 188k turns into $376k..... costs $11,261pa to 188,000 = 1569% return on costs to loan..

100% plus PA return target, that would turn a million dollars into 15 BILLION in 10 years.

If you could even do 30% PA you would be a world famous investor with the world trying to throw money at you.

Also the loan interest is fully tax deductible ...

NZ Property has been a great location to use leverage
I once invested into buying 7x sections same street sold year later, the bank used my RES equity so all I spent on the trade was interest on the loan over the year + legal costs + advertising (I sold privately).. made 1700% on funds invested ... pretty safe trade overall ...

..more than happy to hear about these stocks or stock options with potential 50x bag returns this decade


If you can show me proof of CAGR over 20% let alone 100% over the last 5 years on your whole equity portfolio then you're truly a world class investor.

[Bobdn]

I know dividends aren't free and the share price is adjusted according to the payout. However, over the last few years it seems like the price recovers in record time. There was an avalanche of dividends last week, next minute we're in a monster rally.

Or maybe I'm just imagining it.

[JBmurc]

If you can show me proof of CAGR over 20% let alone 100% over the last 5 years on your whole equity portfolio then you're truly a world class investor.

Goal of 100%+ return on capital invested ..done it couple times(and recently during the Fy) since I started trading company 2006 .. but then I'm focused on the higher risk .. my signature give a guide some I've done well with in recent times...

Generally you need to be sniffing around the nano-micro caps to get this kind of returns the companies that aren't on the radar of the Pros/Insto's generally ..

Getting good swing and even day trades helps ...

My CAGR ..not sure I did work out many years ago and it was around 20% mid last decade for the previous 10yrs..started in 06... after having a good 04/05 not being a tax paying investor

My last 4x FY gross trading profit return on Capital invested start of Fy (I've not added the extra leverage % gains on loaned funds or FX gains / losses)

23Fy = +14%

22Fy = +53%

21Fy = +99%

20Fy = +7.69%

19Fy = +1.1%

18Fy = +134%

So my Companies average gross trading profit % on Capital last 6yrs =51.465%

Over these last 6yrs I've only taken out capital ..

And yes I've had some bad years 08/09 were rough large losses .... 13/14/15 I built up over 400k in trading losses ...

Adding more Capital in 16 and been much better since

No way do I think I'm a world class trader .. just an uneducated simple guy focused on the ASX resources sector

If you want proof SR PM me your email I can send you the thousands of trades I've made over the last many years from my CMC acc

[mike2020]

JB I have seen a lot of those small cap opportunities on the ASX and it can be very rewarding but it is a risk. The ASX is a mess of bot trades and shorts. Looks like the wild west compared to the NZX.

Also I shifted to a new area 3 years ago and I saw exactly the same opportunity you were talking about re sections and I still kick myself for not taking a punt on at least a couple, they tripled in value in 12 months.

[SailorRob]

Goal of 100%+ return on capital invested ..done it couple times(and recently during the Fy) since I started trading company 2006 .. but then I'm focused on the higher risk .. my signature give a guide some I've done well with in recent times...

Generally you need to be sniffing around the nano-micro caps to get this kind of returns the companies that aren't on the radar of the Pros/Insto's generally ..

Getting good swing and even day trades helps ...

My CAGR ..not sure I did work out many years ago and it was around 20% mid last decade for the previous 10yrs..started in 06... after having a good 04/05 not being a tax paying investor

My last 4x FY gross trading profit return on Capital invested start of Fy (I've not added the extra leverage % gains on loaned funds or FX gains / losses)

23Fy = +14%

22Fy = +53%

21Fy = +99%

20Fy = +7.69%

19Fy = +1.1%

18Fy = +134%

So my Companies average gross trading profit % on Capital last 6yrs =51.465%

And yes I've had some bad years 08/09 were rough large losses .... 13/14/15 I built up over 400k in trading losses ...

Adding more Capital in 16 and been much better since

No way do I think I'm a world class trader .. just an uneducated simple guy focused on the ASX resources sector

If you want proof SR PM me your email I can send you the thousands of trades I've made over the last many years from my CMC acc


If these numbers are true then you are more than a world class trader.

I spend a huge amount of time reading the fund letters from around 50 of the best investors with long term outperformance records and many others as well. And I haven't ever seen numbers close to this from any of them. Not even close.

If you CAGR 20% for the decade beginning in 06 and started with 50k, then added 50k per year (as you would if you were punching out 20%) then you'd end up with 2 million in 2016 and then on that if you earned nothing until 2018 and then on numbers provided by you, through 2023 youd have 17.7 million now.

This is without the effect of leverage as you say, also you'd have unlimited capital from friends and family if you were getting these numbers.

So with some leverage etc you'd have to have an absolute minimum of 25 million now, and that's not factoring in your 2017 returns.

Very very impressive and possible if you're working in nanocaps in that sector.

[mike2020]

If these numbers are true then you are more than a world class trader.

I spend a huge amount of time reading the fund letters from around 50 of the best investors with long term outperformance records and many others as well. And I haven't ever seen numbers close to this from any of them. Not even close.

If you CAGR 20% for the decade beginning in 06 and started with 50k, then added 50k per year (as you would if you were punching out 20%) then you'd end up with 2 million in 2016 and then on that if you earned nothing until 2018 and then on numbers provided by you, through 2023 youd have 17.7 million now.

This is without the effect of leverage as you say, also you'd have unlimited capital from friends and family if you were getting these numbers.

So with some leverage etc you'd have to have an absolute minimum of 25 million now, and that's not factoring in your 2017 returns.

Very very impressive and possible if you're working in nanocaps in that sector.

This guy offered you the proof your always calling peoples bluff with. You have your 100k at the ready still?

[SailorRob]

This guy offered you the proof your always calling peoples bluff with. You have your 100k at the ready still?


Not calling anything, if he's telling the truth he has the best record in the world from 2006 until now.

Nobody to touch him that has ever published their record.

But what do you mean 'offered me the proof' Mike?

Is posting your returns on an anonymous forum offering the proof?

Mike?

[SailorRob]

This guy offered you the proof your always calling peoples bluff with. You have your 100k at the ready still?


I will calculate his full CAGR from 2006 through now and if you can show me anyone else in the world with a higher CAGR then I will be stunned.

Doesn't mean it's not true Mike.

[mike2020]

Not calling anything, if he's telling the truth he has the best record in the world from 2006 until now.

Nobody to touch him that has ever published their record.

But what do you mean 'offered me the proof' Mike?

Is posting your returns on an anonymous forum offering the proof?

Mike?

No, you must slow down and read properly. He asked for your email address.

[mike2020]

Also while I'm at it, ANYONE could be c*&k sure buying OCA in the 60 cent range.

[bull....]

sailor has trouble believing anyone can achieve great returns , obviously does not believe anyone can. must be because he has never acheived a great return ?

[SailorRob]

No, you must slow down and read properly. He asked for your email address.


He edited his post to include that wasn't original, cheers.

So that's a CAGR of 29% over 16.5 years.

Buffett did 31% for the 11 years to 1968, but in a much different environment and 11 years vs 16.5 years is a big difference.

[SailorRob]

Was better at 40c

[SailorRob]

sailor has trouble believing anyone can achieve great returns , obviously does not believe anyone can. must be because he has never acheived a great return ?


I have trouble believing that anyone on Sharetrader has the best record in the entire world of professional investing.

That's all.

I also find it hard to believe that anyone with these phenomenal returns like Bull, also needs to work a day job.

[SailorRob]

Also while I'm at it, ANYONE could be c*&k sure buying OCA in the 60 cent range.


How many shares did you buy, Bull didn't give it the green light....

[Daytr]

Good for you JB. Not that anyone here has anything to prove to anyone else.

[mike2020]

How many shares did you buy, Bull didn't give it the green light....

I don't like to say what I actually did or didn't do on any share forum but I suspect I am well ahead of you with OCA and can probably take a nap till around Christmas.

[Valuegrowth]

First time I am studying different types of investors and traders other than great value investors and contrarian investors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIXH1cceujg

[SailorRob]

I don't like to say what I actually did or didn't do on any share forum but I suspect I am well ahead of you with OCA and can probably take a nap till around Christmas.


If you were buying in the 60's probably not, but that's fine.

Can you please confirm that you believe that JB has returned 29% unleveraged CAGR from 2006 and with leverage obviously more?

And that Buffett in his prime did 31% for 11 years?

Cheers.

[mike2020]

I have the same policy as the US navy. Neither confirm or deny. I had heard of OCA before covid, well before.

[SailorRob]

I have the same policy as the US navy. Neither confirm or deny. I had heard of OCA before covid, well before.


That's fair enough.

I don't think it's rational though to question me for doubting that a poster on sharetrader has done unleveraged 29% CAGR over 16.5 years, and states that he used leverage, so returns well over 30% CAGR for 16.5 years when Buffett in his prime did 31% for 11 years.

Just do the math on even small amounts of capital... What's someone worth tens of millions doing arguing with Sailor on ST?

Let's be real here people.

[SailorRob]

Anyone posting that they have dramatically outperformed Buffett in his prime will get some push back from me, and before jumping in the defence of whoever is stating that, just have a think about things...

[mike2020]

That's fair enough.

I don't think it's rational though to question me for doubting that a poster on sharetrader has done unleveraged 29% CAGR over 16.5 years, and states that he used leverage, so returns well over 30% CAGR for 16.5 years when Buffett in his prime did 31% for 11 years.

Just do the math on even small amounts of capital... What's someone worth tens of millions doing arguing with Sailor on ST?

Let's be real here people.

I think you extrapolated his results out to something he never stated he did over the longer term. If you took his 400k loss plus interest and inflation into account and maybe counted use of money verses some index that he could have used at the time what result would you come up with?

[SailorRob]

I think you extrapolated his results out to something he never stated he did over the longer term. If you took his 400k loss plus interest and inflation into account and maybe counted use of money verses some index that he could have used at the time what result would you come up with?


Not at all.

His statement was very clear and simple.

He stated a 20% CAGR for the decade ending 2016, beginning in 2006.

Then he stated each years return from 2018 though to this year.

So it's easy to calculate.

The bad years are already counted for in his 20% CAGR, that's the definition of CAGR.

And remember this is unleveraged, so actual returns far higher.

[Daytr]

I think you extrapolated his results out to something he never stated he did over the longer term. If you took his 400k loss plus interest and inflation into account and maybe counted use of money verses some index that he could have used at the time what result would you come up with?

As you said, someone needs to learn to read, such as "I only took capital out".

But apparently everyone lies on this forum, except SailorRob and he has some distorted view that everyone owes him an explanation.

It really makes this thread quite tiresome & makes me wonder if it's really worth contributing at all.

My preference is that we all help each other to make a buck, not snap like a rabid terrier.

[bull....]

I have trouble believing that anyone on Sharetrader has the best record in the entire world of professional investing.

That's all.

I also find it hard to believe that anyone with these phenomenal returns like Bull, also needs to work a day job.

why does musk still keep his day job

[SailorRob]

why does musk still keep his day job


Because he doesn't work a parallel job as a truck driver alongside his money making entities.

He is entirely focused on his businesses.

[SailorRob]

As you said, someone needs to learn to read, such as "I only took capital out".

But apparently everyone lies on this forum, except SailorRob and he has some distorted view that everyone owes him an explanation.

It really makes this thread quite tiresome & makes me wonder if it's really worth contributing at all.

My preference is that we all help each other to make a buck, not snap like a rabid terrier.


Taking capital out doesn't affect a CAGR calculation...

Your contributions won't be missed, particularly those such as stating the commercial banks borrow money from the RBNZ and lend it at a spread. And then doubling down by saying you're a pro investor.

[Valuegrowth]

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/k-pop-stocks-5-4-020014906.html

K-Pop Stocks’ $5.4 Billion Rally Emboldens Bulls

https://res.heraldm.com/phpwas/restmb_idxmake.php?idx=142&simg=%2Fcontent%2Fimage%2F2023%2F06%2F04%2F2023060 4000212_0.jpg

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4TWN54KqfQ

[JBmurc]

If these numbers are true then you are more than a world class trader.

I spend a huge amount of time reading the fund letters from around 50 of the best investors with long term outperformance records and many others as well. And I haven't ever seen numbers close to this from any of them. Not even close.

If you CAGR 20% for the decade beginning in 06 and started with 50k, then added 50k per year (as you would if you were punching out 20%) then you'd end up with 2 million in 2016 and then on that if you earned nothing until 2018 and then on numbers provided by you, through 2023 youd have 17.7 million now.

This is without the effect of leverage as you say, also you'd have unlimited capital from friends and family if you were getting these numbers.

So with some leverage etc you'd have to have an absolute minimum of 25 million now, and that's not factoring in your 2017 returns.

Very very impressive and possible if you're working in nanocaps in that sector.

Well since 2006 ... I haven't added much if any real extra funds than the 40k I started with and doubled pre forming the company 06 (on advice from the accountant)next big add was 2016 after selling Queenstown property going debt free and having few dollars left over

I would pay the interest on the loans out of my seasonal job along with other costs many years(then later had small vending business pay costs)

I agree when you look at my average return last 6yrs I should have way more capital ?? I did pay off loans, buy new car for the wife ..and of course pay the TAX man upwards 28% of my profits ..

Longer term if indeed once I go through all my accounts for the trading company which I will one of these days ... I'm missing Pre 07 numbers ..

I know from memory I was smashed over the 08/09 period and then again 12-15 ...I recall if I'd sold all my shares at the bottom i the mid 2010's I'd still have owed the bank and parents over 200k so I must have been down some pretty horrible number -50%+ etc ...it was a very bleak time for me and many Micro-cap ASX resource stock traders of the day wiped out many ..seemed like good or bad news the SP would still fall ..

COVID 2020 was another date I recall being dumbfounded how such a heather portfolio could turn to ****!! ...smartly I didn't cash out and was rewarded massively...

I think one must remember I'm not trading millions/billions like the buffets of the world I'm 95% trading 10's thousands ,,, much easier to hunt out those gains ..just go look at say MAY or LRS chart two of my largest holdings at present ... 5%+ moves either way daily is common ...not hard to see how one can trade pips here and there and collect good returns more so swing trade for me... these companies have great volumes and value MAY today total A$1.4Mill LRS A$2.5mill ....I could never trade the NZX

I had a rough add up last 12months I've had 240x trades

[SailorRob]

Well since 2006 ... I haven't added much if any real extra funds than the 40k I started with and doubled pre forming the company 06 (on advice from the accountant)next big add was 2016 after selling Queenstown property going debt free and having few dollars left over

I would pay the interest on the loans out of my seasonal job along with other costs many years(then later had small vending business pay costs)

I agree when you look at my average return last 6yrs I should have way more capital ?? I did pay off loans, buy new car for the wife ..and of course pay the TAX man upwards 28% of my profits ..

Longer term if indeed once I go through all my accounts for the trading company which I will one of these days ... I'm missing Pre 07 numbers ..

I know from memory I was smashed over the 08/09 period and then again 12-15 ...I recall if I'd sold all my shares at the bottom i the mid 2010's I'd still have owed the bank and parents over 200k so I must have been down some pretty horrible number -50%+ etc ...it was a very bleak time for me and many Micro-cap ASX resource stock traders of the day wiped out many ..seemed like good or bad news the SP would still fall ..

COVID 2020 was another date I recall being dumbfounded how such a heather portfolio could turn to ****!! ...smartly I didn't cash out and was rewarded massively...

I think one must remember I'm not trading millions/billions like the buffets of the world I'm 95% trading 10's thousands ,,, much easier to hunt out those gains ..just go look at say MAY or LRS chart two of my largest holdings at present ... 5%+ moves either way daily is common ...not hard to see how one can trade pips here and there and collect good returns more so swing trade for me... these companies have great volumes and value MAY today total A$1.4Mill LRS A$2.5mill ....I could never trade the NZX

I had a rough add up last 12months I've had 240x trades


Yeah for sure much harder to do with larger amounts of capital.

Sounds like you've done pretty well, but the CAGR figures might be a bit off after considering what you have posted above.

What were the reasons you set up the trading company?

[JBmurc]

why does musk still keep his day job

MY day job since MAR22 is Share-trading ... after I returned more in one day than I'd made working at sea the previous two year!!! I knew it was time to focus on the main earner ... do have 1x commercial property that adds a few dollars but mostly pays off the loan it still has ..sold my other vending business ..

So one year later I'm so very happy to be able to continue to focus on what I love trading the ASX ...and not working for anyone else .. I spent many hours over the previous 20 years working at sea dreaming of the day I could walk away be my own boss .. so much doubt in recent years ,,I'd fail and have to go back cap in hand broke ,,I've made it past a year heres hoping I can continue to do what I love ..

[JBmurc]

Yeah for sure much harder to do with larger amounts of capital.

Sounds like you've done pretty well, but the CAGR figures might be a bit off after considering what you have posted above.

What were the reasons you set up the trading company?

exactly that 13-15 period was brutal to go from paying small amounts of TAX to over $400k in TAX credits !!! you got me to look over many of my Fy accounts today and I can't even recall having such a small amount in the market like 50k etc ...but there it was in black n white ...

So I'm certainly no smart trader that walked in a kicked ass like a buffet ..but a guy that took the hard road and never gave up (the day job LOL) and learnt my small little niche in the marketplace playing around with the unloved and up incoming nano-micro cap resource stocks some 20yrs just refining it ... luck certainly would have played its part ...

[JBmurc]

exactly that 13-15 period was brutal to go from paying small amounts of TAX to over $400k in TAX credits !!! you got me to look over many of my Fy accounts today and I can't even recall having such a small amount in the market like 50k etc ...but there it was in black n white ...

So I'm certainly no smart trader that walked in a kicked ass like a buffet ..but a guy that took the hard road and never gave up (the day job LOL) and learnt my small little niche in the marketplace playing around with the unloved and up incoming nano-micro cap resource stocks some 20yrs just refining it ... luck certainly would have played its part ...

As for setting up the trading company..... was my accountants ideal he seen me double my money doing a few trades over the year back to back pretty much and said I should be paying tax if I wanted to progress .. I's got into spec building few homes units etc so had couple other companies one a rental the other for spec builds around the same period so dealing with the accountant was a massive help ...and I'd say the same for any budding trader get a good accountant

[JBmurc]

He edited his post to include that wasn't original, cheers.

So that's a CAGR of 29% over 16.5 years.

Buffett did 31% for the 11 years to 1968, but in a much different environment and 11 years vs 16.5 years is a big difference.

Well if I just start from 17FY and continue to get some great trades maybe I can beat Buffetts CAGR .. If I include all my investments(including personal) I think it would be pretty good .. last 23Yrs etc ..but I do wonder where in the money went ???

But as I said he's done it with Millions I'm doing it with hundreds thousands ,,,, My largest purchase was building home in Qtn $700k buffett would laugh at any investment that small

[Valuegrowth]

JBmurc

Good on you! With your experience in good time and bad time, I am sure you will do well in the stock market. Experience count lot. Once retire my hobby is going to be active involvement in the stock market. Although I prefer investment for the long run, I want to do some trading as well.

Surprisingly, the best trading I ever did was during Covid-19 period. It was like god sent trading for me which helped me to stay in the stock market. It was very difficult period for many investors world wide. In fact,those who panicked and over-leveraged lost heavily. Those who had experience and knowledge on the investment world not only survived but also manged to get above average capital gain.My job that time was how to come out from the most difficult situation.So I stared my home work and found traders, speculators and investors were heavily betting on health related stuff, shipping and transportation related stocks. As they were very hot, I tried to find some other stocks like food and commodity producers which are going to benefit and took some positions accordingly. One became a more than 4 or 5 baggers. First time I realized I am not bad at trading as well. When the right time comes I will do trading as well. As I said, currently my main Job is preserving my capital.


MY day job since MAR22 is Share-trading ... after I returned more in one day than I'd made working at sea the previous two year!!! I knew it was time to focus on the main earner ... do have 1x commercial property that adds a few dollars but mostly pays off the loan it still has ..sold my other vending business ..

So one year later I'm so very happy to be able to continue to focus on what I love trading the ASX ...and not working for anyone else .. I spent many hours over the previous 20 years working at sea dreaming of the day I could walk away be my own boss .. so much doubt in recent years ,,I'd fail and have to go back cap in hand broke ,,I've made it past a year heres hoping I can continue to do what I love ..

[SailorRob]

Well if I just start from 17FY and continue to get some great trades maybe I can beat Buffetts CAGR .. If I include all my investments(including personal) I think it would be pretty good .. last 23Yrs etc ..but I do wonder where in the money went ???

But as I said he's done it with Millions I'm doing it with hundreds thousands ,,,, My largest purchase was building home in Qtn $700k buffett would laugh at any investment that small


Man I would not be building any houses if I could generate returns like that!

The 700k spent on the house could have been turned into 6.2 million from 2018 until now.

[SailorRob]

JBmurc

Good on you! With your experience in good time and bad time, I am sure you will do well in the stock market. Experience count lot. Once retire my hobby is going to be active involvement in the stock market. Although I prefer investment for the long run, I want to do some trading as well.

Surprisingly, the best trading I ever did was during Covid-19 period. It was like god sent trading for me which helped me to stay in the stock market. It was very difficult period for many investors world wide. In fact,those who panicked and over-leveraged lost heavily. Those who had experience and knowledge on the investment world not only survived but also manged to get above average capital gain.My job that time was how to come out from the most difficult situation.So I stared my home work and found traders, speculators and investors were heavily betting on health related stuff, shipping and transportation related stocks. As they were very hot, I tried to find some other stocks like food and commodity producers which are going to benefit and took some positions accordingly. One became a more than 4 or 5 baggers. First time I realized I am not bad at trading as well. When the right time comes I will do trading as well. As I said, currently my main Job is preserving my capital.


The BOT.

American spelling.

[JBmurc]

Man I would not be building any houses if I could generate returns like that!

The 700k spent on the house could have been turned into 6.2 million from 2018 until now.

Or not .. we built the house in 2010/11 ... had all those funds been invested in the market ..I'd have been smashed during the middle of the decade ..while the homes value continued to rise ..

[Valuegrowth]

I wasn't using MS word. Instead of realised, it has typed as realized.
The BOT.

American spelling.

[Valuegrowth]

I wasn't using MS word. Instead of realised, it has typed as realized.
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LibreOffice









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Google Docs









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Apache OpenOffice









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Pages









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AbiWord









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SoftMaker FreeOffice









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Zoho









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LibreOffice Writer

[Onemootpoint]

First time I am studying different types of investors and traders other than great value investors and contrarian investors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CIXH1cceujg



Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood's reputation as a star stock picker may be at risk.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ark-invest-ceo-cathie-wood-nvidia-flagship-fund-tech-stocks-2023-6

[bull....]

MY day job since MAR22 is Share-trading ... after I returned more in one day than I'd made working at sea the previous two year!!! I knew it was time to focus on the main earner ... do have 1x commercial property that adds a few dollars but mostly pays off the loan it still has ..sold my other vending business ..

So one year later I'm so very happy to be able to continue to focus on what I love trading the ASX ...and not working for anyone else .. I spent many hours over the previous 20 years working at sea dreaming of the day I could walk away be my own boss .. so much doubt in recent years ,,I'd fail and have to go back cap in hand broke ,,I've made it past a year heres hoping I can continue to do what I love ..

good on you for doing what you want to do , full time investing/trading or any business venture where you give up the safety of a regular paycheck takes real courage.
As long as you have a good money management plan im sure your do fine. your results posted show you know what you are doing and have found your sweet spot in the market

[JBmurc]

good on you for doing what you want to do , full time investing/trading or any business venture where you give up the safety of a regular paycheck takes real courage.
As long as you have a good money management plan im sure your do fine. your results posted show you know what you are doing and have found your sweet spot in the market

Yeah was a long time coming .. certainly different stress levels .. so good to just focus on sharetrading and not have to be away fro the net for upwards 150days per year .. missed out on so many trades over the years

[percy]

Yeah was a long time coming .. certainly different stress levels .. so good to just focus on sharetrading and not have to be away fro the net for upwards 150days per year .. missed out on so many trades over the years

Good on you,and well done.

[bull....]

positive market action on potential breakout today . should get if not already started a big short stop run esp if goes thru 4300
economic news helping too

got our move to resistance on sp500 last night , sp500 turned down roughly of that 4300 level ... lets see what happens going forward consolidation would be good outcome

[SailorRob]

Minimum wage 50k now...

[ValueNZ]

Minimum wage 50k now...
People who support minimum wage laws have a misunderstanding of how markets work, and don't understand that these minimum wage hikes actually hurts the poor in society. These people cheer and feel good about themselves whenever there is a minimum wage hike, but ask them what the correct minimum wage is and they will never have an answer. The correct answer is there should not be a minimum wage, leave markets alone and they will deliver efficient outcomes.

[SailorRob]

People who support minimum wage laws have a misunderstanding of how markets work, and don't understand that these minimum wage hikes actually hurts the poor in society. These people cheer and feel good about themselves whenever there is a minimum wage hike, but ask them what the correct minimum wage is and they will never have an answer. The correct answer is there should not be a minimum wage, leave markets alone and they will deliver efficient outcomes.


Correct, better still, when people harp on about how great raising it is, just say to them why not raise it to $100?

Why stop at $22?

If we have wage controls, then why not price controls? Why not a maximum wage?

Why not let the state determine the price of everything... After all they know best.

[Daytr]

[QUOTE=ValueNZ;1006346]People who support minimum wage laws have a misunderstanding of how markets work, and don't understand that these minimum wage hikes actually hurts the poor in society. These people cheer and feel good about themselves whenever there is a minimum wage hike, but ask them what the correct minimum wage is and they will never have an answer. The correct answer is there should not be a minimum wage, leave markets alone and they will deliver efficient outcomes.[/QUOTE

What a load of tosh.
Why don't we go back to the Victorian era whilst we are at it? Send kids down pit.

Australia for years had a much higher minimum wage than NZ & it didn't hold them back.
NZ has recently just caught up with our trans Tasman neighours.

Minimum wage workers should not have their remuneration governed by the whim of the market & the most powerful.

[Panda-NZ-]

People who support minimum wage laws have a misunderstanding of how markets work, and don't understand that these minimum wage hikes actually hurts the poor in society. These people cheer and feel good about themselves whenever there is a minimum wage hike, but ask them what the correct minimum wage is and they will never have an answer. The correct answer is there should not be a minimum wage, leave markets alone and they will deliver efficient outcomes.[/QUOTE

What a load of tosh.
Why don't we go back to the Victorian era whilst we are at it? Send kids down pit.


David seymours dream

Along with importing 200k per year indian migrants on $1/day.

[ValueNZ]

David seymours dream

Along with importing 200k per year indian migrants on $1/day.
Would those immigrants be better, or worse off in New Zealand? If they are worse off, then why would they move here. If they are better off and we are better off from the cheaper labour, why would you have a problem with immigrants moving here?

Just sounds like a mutually beneficial transaction between parties to me, but hey maybe I'm just an evil capitalist scumbag.

[ValueNZ]

What a load of tosh.
Why don't we go back to the Victorian era whilst we are at it? Send kids down pit.

Australia for years had a much higher minimum wage than NZ & it didn't hold them back.
NZ has recently just caught up with our trans Tasman neighours.

Minimum wage workers should not have their remuneration governed by the whim of the market & the most powerful.
They should instead have their wage determined by the government?

[Daytr]

QUOTE=ValueNZ;1006395]They should instead have their wage determined by the government?[/QUOTE]

It's not set by the Government, the minimum is, which has been the standard in the Western World for decades.

[ValueNZ]

It's not set by the Government, the minimum is, which has been the standard in the Western World for decades.
It's a price control and it's set by the government. It being a standard in the Western World for decades is totally irrelevant, unless you want to discuss the racist history of minimum wage laws?

[Daytr]

Hmmm I don't think so. Western World standards mean quite a lot.
Many things are measured this way, including credit ratings, trade agreements with other developed countries.

No I doubt I would want to discuss anything about race with you as if this is your attitude toward the vulnerable in our society, I would hate to think what other views you may have.

Let's stick to the markets shall we.

[ValueNZ]

Hmmm I don't think so. Western World standards mean quite a lot.
Many things are measured this way, including credit ratings, trade agreements with other developed countries.

No I doubt I would want to discuss anything about race with you as if this is your attitude toward the vulnerable in our society, I would hate to think what other views you may have.

Let's stick to the markets shall we.
If you think the pure fact that minimum wage laws have existed in the past in the western world means that we should have them today (which I dont), then you have to look at the history of the laws. The minimum wage in America was introduced in 1938 as a way of stopping black people from working for a lower wage than a white person. The theory being that employers would choose a white person over a black person if the black person wasn't allowed to work for a lower wage. Horribly racist stuff, that is in no way relevant today. What is relevant however is the fact that minimum wage laws cause inefficiencies within markets, and make poor and unskilled workers worse off.

[SailorRob]

If you think the pure fact that minimum wage laws have existed in the past in the western world means that we should have them today (which I dont), then you have to look at where it originated from. The minimum wage in America was introduced in 1938 as a way of stopping black people from working for a lower wage than a white person. The theory being that employers would choose a white person over a black person if the black person wasn't allowed to work for a lower wage. Horribly racist stuff, that is in no way relevant today. What is relevant however is the fact that minimum wage laws cause inefficiencies within markets, and make poor and unskilled workers worse off.


Exactly. As with all misguided leftist ideology, cranking up the minimum wage will hurt the working poor far more than it will help them.

Raising the minimum wage just makes all the necessities that the minimum wage earners need to buy more expensive, and also will cut people out of a job who would otherwise be prepared to work for less. It also encourages automation and businesses to find any way to get rid of employees altogether. Fine in a tight market like this but this ain't normal.

The best way to improve the lot of the working poor is to produce more goods and services, improve productivity.

Raising the minimum wage means they have more money but can buy less stuff for it. It will destroy the productivity of the economy and make marginal businesses close down thus reducing the amount of goods in the economy if nobody more efficient takes up the resources.

Australia can afford to have half the population on a benefit (artificial wage) as they just dig another hole somewhere and export to China. We don't have that luxury.

[Panda-NZ-]

Exactly. As with all misguided leftist ideology, cranking up the minimum wage will hurt the working poor far more than it will help them.


It actually should be much higher, wages should follow productivity increases and they really haven't (even with NZ's flat rate of improvement in productivity).

Workers have been ripped off for decades.

[Daytr]

I always find it quite incredible that wealthy people think they no best for the blue collar worker. It's like men thinking they know best for women...

Lucky we have a democracy which will never allow such I'll advised & unsavory policy to see the light of day.

Interesting take you have on the minimum wage in the US ValueNZ. Stating that it was introduced to prevent Black people from working for less than white. Like they had a choice.
The correct way to look at it is it was to prevent employers taking advantage of black people and pay them the same as everyone else.

Here is a chronicle of the history of the minimum wage. I didn't realise NZ was the first country to implement one in 1894. Something to be proud of.

It also refers to the 1938 US example and from what it says it was more about protecting women & children than black people. I really wonder what you are reading to arrive at such distorted views.

https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/wages/minimum-wages/definition/WCMS_439071/lang--en/index.htm#:~:text=In%201938%2C%20following%20an%20 initiative,instituted%20a%20federal%20minimum%20wa ge.

[Panda-NZ-]

Interesting take you have on the minimum wage in the US ValueNZ. Stating that it was introduced to prevent Black people from working for less than white. Like they had a choice.

It was implemented during the worst of economic times too. It should have been carnage with all those employers unable to afford to take people on & fire even more people.

Instead it was entirely the opposite. ;)

[SailorRob]

It actually should be much higher, wages should follow productivity increases and they really haven't (even with NZ's flat rate of improvement there).

Workers have been ripped off for decades.


Why don't you tip minimum wage workers then Panda?

[ValueNZ]

I always find it quite incredible that wealthy people think they no best for the blue collar worker. It's like men thinking they know best for women...

Lucky we have a democracy which will never allow such I'll advised & unsavory policy to see the light of day.

Interesting take you have on the minimum wage in the US ValueNZ. Stating that it was introduced to prevent Black people from working for less than white. Like they had a choice.
The correct way to look at it is it was to prevent employers taking advantage of black people and pay them the same as everyone else.
Daytr I am 17 years old and I am myself not wealthy, although I do have more money then most other teenagers my age from working. My views of the minimum wage come from my experience working on it, and the fact that for 5 whole years of wanting to do some work I was unable to. That is, I was willing to work for a low wage and an employer would have been happy to pay me a low wage, but for whatever reason it is deemed immoral by society to pay me too low a wage. New Zealand has some of the worst teenager unemployment rates in the world and it is due to the minimum wage laws.

[SailorRob]

I always find it quite incredible that wealthy people think they no best for the blue collar worker. It's like men thinking they know best for women...

Lucky we have a democracy which will never allow such I'll advised & unsavory policy to see the light of day.

Interesting take you have on the minimum wage in the US ValueNZ. Stating that it was introduced to prevent Black people from working for less than white. Like they had a choice.
The correct way to look at it is it was to prevent employers taking advantage of black people and pay them the same as everyone else.

Here is a chronicle of the history of the minimum wage. I didn't realise NZ was the first country to implement one in 1894. Something to be proud of.

It also refers to the 1938 US example and from what it says it was more about protecting women & children than black people. I really wonder what tmyou are reading to arrive at such distorted views.

https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/wages/minimum-wages/definition/WCMS_439071/lang--en/index.htm#:~:text=In%201938%2C%20following%20an%20 initiative,instituted%20a%20federal%20minimum%20wa ge.


Who said anything about ValueNZ being wealthy?

[Panda-NZ-]

Daytr I am 17 years old and I am myself not wealthy, although I do have more money then most other teenagers my age from working. My views of the minimum wage come from my experience working on it, and the fact that for 5 whole years of wanting to do some work I was unable to. That is, I was willing to work for a low wage

Thankfully we have child labour laws too - something you would like to have reviewed?

[SailorRob]

Daytr I am 17 years old and I am myself not wealthy, although I do have more money then most other teenagers my age from working. My views of the minimum wage come from my experience working on it, and the fact that for 5 whole years of wanting to do some work I was unable to. That is, I was willing to work for a low wage and an employer would have been happy to pay me a low wage, but for whatever reason it is deemed immoral by society to pay me too low a wage. New Zealand has some of the worst teenager unemployment rates in the world and it is due to the minimum wage laws.


Put that in yer pipe and smoke it Daytr.

[ValueNZ]

Thankfully we have child labour laws too - something you would like to have reviewed?
Sure would! I am all for voluntary transactions between parties.

[SailorRob]

Thankfully we have child labour laws too - something you would like to have reviewed?


I think ValueNZ was quite clear about this... I have been working since I was 7 on the family farm as many of my mates did as well.

Nothing wrong with kids helping the family out on farms and small businesses.

[thegreatestben]

I enjoyed getting paid cash to work at the engineering workshop with my Dad as young as 10. He and my grandfather taught me workshop safety from a young age as both had operational businesses in the garage at home.

I think I used to make about 5 bucks an hour and work a full day during school holidays - bloody good for me, learnt about workplace culture and teamwork. Would do finishing work on drill presses, operate automated lathes, thread cutting machines. I don't recall being taken advantage of in the slightest.

[SailorRob]

I think we're all on the same page here in that we want to see Blue collar workers obtain the most goods and services that they can per hour worked.

In order for this to happen, we need to create a $hitload of goods and services.

[SailorRob]

I enjoyed getting paid cash to work at the engineering workshop with my Dad as young as 10. He and my grandfather taught me workshop safety from a young age as both had operational businesses in the garage at home.

I think I used to make about 5 bucks an hour and work a full day during school holidays - bloody good for me, learnt about workplace culture and teamwork. Would do finishing work on drill presses, operate automated lathes, thread cutting machines. I don't recall being taken advantage of in the slightest.


You are making the Panda cry!

[Panda-NZ-]

I enjoyed getting paid cash to work at the engineering workshop with my Dad as young as 10. He and my grandfather taught me workshop safety from a young age as both had operational businesses in the garage at home.

Why weren't you in school ?

[SailorRob]

Why weren't you in school ?


"I enjoyed getting paid cash to work at the engineering workshop with my Dad as young as 10. He and my grandfather taught me workshop safety from a young age as both had operational businesses in the garage at home.

I think I used to make about 5 bucks an hour and work a full day during school holidays - bloody good for me, learnt about workplace culture and teamwork. Would do finishing work on drill presses, operate automated lathes, thread cutting machines. I don't recall being taken advantage of in the slightest".

[Bjauck]

Sure would! I am all for voluntary transactions between parties. LOL. Send ‘‘em up the chimneys before they too big, worn out and uppity.

[Panda-NZ-]

LOL. Send ‘‘em up the chimneys before they too big, worn out and uppity.

Not old enough to buy a drink but old enough to get your fingers chopped off at dad's sawmill.

- ValuesNZ

[ValueNZ]

Not old enough to buy a drink but old enough to get your fingers chopped off at dad's sawmill.

- ValuesNZ
Very nice argument Panda-NZ. Attack the individual instead of provide reasons as to why you believe you're correct.

[SailorRob]

Not old enough to buy a drink but old enough to get your fingers chopped off at dad's sawmill.

- ValuesNZ


It was thegreatestben who posted about working in his fathers engineering workshop.

Without men like him, you wouldn't be able to enjoy your life of welfare.

[ValueNZ]

It actually should be much higher, wages should follow productivity increases and they really haven't (even with NZ's flat rate of improvement in productivity).

Workers have been ripped off for decades.
How much higher Panda? $30 an hour? $40? $100? $1000?

[Daytr]

Daytr I am 17 years old and I am myself not wealthy, although I do have more money then most other teenagers my age from working. My views of the minimum wage come from my experience working on it, and the fact that for 5 whole years of wanting to do some work I was unable to. That is, I was willing to work for a low wage and an employer would have been happy to pay me a low wage, but for whatever reason it is deemed immoral by society to pay me too low a wage. New Zealand has some of the worst teenager unemployment rates in the world and it is due to the minimum wage laws.

Perhaps I was seeing your future ValueNZ.

The children that were being protected were being sent down mines or doing other dangerous work and some of them not even teenagers.

I do understand having youth labour rates can make sense in some instances but it's simply not true that NZ has one of the worst teenager unemployment rates in the world.

The minimum wage isn't just about teenagers of course but the quarter million plus workers that are on the minimum wage.

Another thing to note is that in the last few years, since the minimum wage has gone up sharply, teenage unemployment has gone down in NZ.

I started my first business at age 17 & had five employees, including my father. I negotiated the contract rate for the work we performed and we all did very well out of it.

I admire your endeavor, all the best to you.

[Panda-NZ-]

How much higher Panda? $30 an hour? $40? $100? $1000?

$30/h seems fine given where unemployment is (a statistic the right ignore when it suits them, like now with a $21/hr MW).

[SailorRob]

How much higher Panda? $30 an hour? $40? $100? $1000?


And also please tell us how much you have tipped minimum wage workers when you have had goods and services provided by their labour, as you are free to top up their wage as you see fit?

You can harp on all you like that it should be higher but what are you doing yourself?

[SailorRob]

$30/h seems fine given where unemployment is (a statistic the right ignore when it suits them, like now with a $21/hr MW).

And do you think this would be inflationary?

[Panda-NZ-]

And do you think this would be inflationary?

In a protectionist economy it would be... but we're about free trade now.

Technology has a deflationary impact.

[Panda-NZ-]

I think overall there would be widespread deflation across the developed world without reserve bank "assistance" ... raising wages could mean we help the poor and middle class rather than only the asset rich.

[thegreatestben]

Problem is if min wage is $30 an hour you make a whole lot of people suddenly on minimum wage and a whole lot of people slightly better than minimum wage who weren't before. It's not exactly motivating for a lot of hard working people, especially those who've taken on hefty student loan debt to "earn" a higher rate.

Most NZer's could probably find more in their pocket if they took a look inwardly before they cried about how much they (don't) make.

[SailorRob]

I think overall there would be widespread deflation across the developed world without reserve bank "assistance" ... raising wages could mean we help the poor and middle class rather than the asset rich.


Could perhaps be some truth to this however, it's inequality that drives innovation.

[Panda-NZ-]

Another aspect .. given wages and spending from those wages is heavily taxed in NZ... our tax take would skyrocket (rather than if we cut both the taxes and wages).

We can keep retirement at 65 or even lower it and still have a forever surplus.
Spray money everywhere :p

[bull....]

rba raises rates 25

[ValueNZ]

Another aspect .. given wages and spending from those wages is heavily taxed in NZ.. our tax take would skyrocket (rather than if we cut both the taxes and wages).

We can keep retirement at 65 or even lower it and still have a forever surplus :p

Spray money everywhere
Theres no way you're serious. Why don't you just donate your own money to the govt if you think they are spending it well. For the rest of us fiscal drag sucks, tax brackets should be indexed to inflation.

[Panda-NZ-]

Theres no way you're serious. Why don't you just donate your own money to the govt if you think they are spending it well. For the rest of us fiscal drag sucks, tax brackets should be indexed to inflation.

I would rather a wage increase to match what they are getting in Australia, thank you.

[SailorRob]

Another aspect .. given wages and spending from those wages is heavily taxed in NZ... our tax take would skyrocket (rather than if we cut both the taxes and wages).

We can keep retirement at 65 or even lower it and still have a forever surplus.
Spray money everywhere :p


I did not think of this.

You're right if we raise it to $100, everyone will be happy. Government deficit solved.

[SailorRob]

Theres no way you're serious. Why don't you just donate your own money to the govt if you think they are spending it well. For the rest of us fiscal drag sucks, tax brackets should be indexed to inflation.


Yeah everything indexed to inflation, Minimum wage, benefits...

But not tax brackets.

So all the people hanging off the workers are compensated for inflation but tax isn't.

[Panda-NZ-]

I did not think of this.

You're right if we raise it to $100, everyone will be happy. Government deficit solved.

Given we will be in a budget surplus by 2025.. a 10% wage increase should get us there.

Flick the workers an extra gold coin ($2) per hour and sell off the 5th tesla you have.

[SailorRob]

Given we will be in surplus by 2025.. a 10% wage increase should get us there.

Flick the workers and extra gold coin ($2) per hour and sell off the 5th tesla you have.


I'm unemployed sport, drive a 7k car, upgraded from a $1800 car that I had last 3 years.

So you can predict future government finances too?

[ValueNZ]

Given we will be in surplus by 2025.. a 10% wage increase should get us there.

Flick the workers an extra gold coin ($2) per hour and sell off the 5th tesla you have.
Panda NZ what you don't seem to understand is that as productivity rises, naturally wages will increase in real terms. No government intervention necessary.

[Daytr]

QUOTE=ValueNZ;1006487]Panda NZ what you don't seem to understand is that as productivity rises, naturally wages will increase in real terms. No government intervention necessary.[/QUOTE]

You are showing your nativity here ValueNZ.
Wages haven't kept up with inflation for decades. If the Government hadn't raised the minimum wage we would have a quarter of a million workers not being able to feed or clothe their kids, pay the power bill, the rent or the mortgage.
But perhaps it's the Black People's fault... or the Brown or the Yellow...

[SailorRob]

QUOTE=ValueNZ;1006487]Panda NZ what you don't seem to understand is that as productivity rises, naturally wages will increase in real terms. No government intervention necessary.

You are showing your nativity here ValueNZ.
Wages haven't kept up with inflation for decades. If the Government hadn't raised the minimum wage we would have a quarter of a million workers not being able to feed or clothe their kids, pay the power bill, the rent or the mortgage.
But perhaps it's the Black People's fault... or the Brown or the Yellow...[/QUOTE]


Really, wow.

Why don't we let the state manage the whole economy seeing as they have done such a good job here.

Decades is a long time for inflation to compound higher than wages... standards of living must be much much lower than they were decades ago.

Learning lots today but nothing will top the lesson I learned about commercial banks borrowing money from the RBNZ and lending it out at a spread.

[percy]

Book Review of Davos Man ,by Peter Goodman:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2023/01/10/book-review-davos-man-how-the-billionaires-devoured-the-world-by-peter-goodman/

[SailorRob]

Book Review of The Davos Man ,by Peter Goodman:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2023/01/10/book-review-davos-man-how-the-billionaires-devoured-the-world-by-peter-goodman/


Good you posted that Percy.

The more Billionaires the better off we all are.

They have become Billionaires by creating massive quantities of goods and services for our use, more efficiently than anyone else.

To become one, you must create massive value for hundreds of thousands of people.

[Panda-NZ-]

To become one, you must create massive value for hundreds of thousands of people.

Or the people that work for them (while they figure out how to dodge societal obligations like tax).

[percy]

Good you posted that Percy.

The more Billionaires the better off we all are.

They have become Billionaires by creating massive quantities of goods and services for our use, more efficiently than anyone else.

To become one, you must create massive value for hundreds of thousands of people.

I think you should read the book.

[SailorRob]

I think you should read the book.


I'm living it. What I can do with 1 weeks minimum wage is mind boggling.

All thanks to Billionaires.