Black Monday

[Biscuit]

all this bank stuff happening making fed job easier cause its tightening conditions more. banks will lend less now going forward further tightening things up.
money supply negative , in all history when goes negative points to recession for sure
curve steepning again from being heavily inverted , in all history this has led to recession
the stock market has never bottomed in all history before recession so further to go down yet

im picking powell go 25 still with changed outlook , cause who knows what will happen with banks going forward could be still more blow - ups as we go into recession

be fascinating what ecb does tonight in there rate dicision , could be volatilty abound again

Yes, but, when in history did governments create so much money over so long a period?

[winner69]

Robertson will be proclaiming later today that ‘the economy is in great shape’

[tipsy]

Robertson will be proclaiming later today that ‘the economy is in great shape’

'Rockstar economy'

[Davexl]

Personally thinking we're all living in cloud cuckoo land at this point, not just the Swiss.

And as for the American oversight of their banking system, allowing a NZ $300bn bank to fall over due to little to no interest rate hedging being in place. And it all goes back to Trump's stupidity, removing the supervision oversight for mid-size US banks.

Confidence is very fragile at this point. And confidence is absolutely key, "whatever the facts of the situation..."

What else is going to break after the stupid Saudi comments in Europe ?
What's the next US midsize bank to fall over due to lack of regulatory supervision?

What's next to lower confidence in the safety of the banking system in the eyes of depositers, even if their deposits are guaranteed to US $250k.
The Fed can't guarantee the lot, can't backstop the lot, if this scales up

Wait and see is not much of a strategy in my book anyway...

Credit Suisse turmoil: Markets tumble as bank fears go global

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-tumble-as-bank-fears-go-global/ZLD4ITXVABGU3PSMHUFKQHWDZI/

[nztx]

'Rockstar economy'


The only thing missing is the Rock Star :)

[Nor]

Rocky Horror Show.

[nztx]

Whole market looks like it's continuing to slowly sink into the proverbial muck ..

[nztx]

Amazing .. all triggered over just one unsteady peg in the US banking wall coming loose & falling ..

[SailorRob]

Whole market looks like it's continuing to slowly sink into the proverbial muck ..


Supermarket prices are declining into the muck, slowly sinking, everyone furious their weekly shopping is getting cheaper, customers running out of the supermarket leaving trollies full in isles.

How about;

Whole market future returns are slowly rising out of the proverbial muck, everyone becoming happier about the more rosy future.

[nztx]

Supermarket prices are declining into the muck, slowly sinking, everyone furious their weekly shopping is getting cheaper, customers running out of the supermarket leaving trollies full in isles.

How about;

Whole market future returns are slowly rising out of the proverbial muck, everyone becoming happier about the more rosy future.


what supermarket did you see that at ? :)

presumably much time spent scraping off the proverbial muck as well ?

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gdp-data-expected-to-show-economy-in-reverse/2TULEGCPYBGQBK3UXVNVEJAVCY/

GDP fell 0.6 pc in fourth quarter, worse than expected - expectations for interest rate hikes fall

Bets open for the current March 2023 Quarter - entries close 30th

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stock-market-nz-shares-kiwi-dollar-interest-rates-fall-as-recession-looms/RTPCTUEZ3VAQZG4TEKSZJW5FJM/

Stock Market: NZ shares, Kiwi dollar, interest rates fall as recession looms



NZH calling it now

Is Robbo still hiding under his desk ? ;)

Anyone seen Adrian the Orrsome anywhere ?

[tipsy]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stock-market-nz-shares-kiwi-dollar-interest-rates-fall-as-recession-looms/RTPCTUEZ3VAQZG4TEKSZJW5FJM/

Stock Market: NZ shares, Kiwi dollar, interest rates fall as recession looms



NZH calling it now

Is Robbo still hiding under his desk ? ;)

Anyone seen Adrian the Orrsome anywhere ?

They couldn't organise a piss up at a brewery.

[bull....]

stagflation in NZ :scared:

Generally, stagflation is bad for consumers because you’re making less money and everything costs more. For investors, stagflation typically means lower returns as growth slows. The longer stagflation goes on, the more significant the impact to the future value of your portfolio may be.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-best-investments-stagflation-145909525.html#:~:text=For%20investors%2C%20stagfl ation%20typically%20means,of%20your%20portfolio%20 may%20be.

[Davexl]

Confidence ?

Credit Suisse in Crisis Taps $54 Billion From Central Bank

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/credit-suisse-to-borrow-as-much-as-54-billion-from-central-bank

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11856397/How-Silicon-Valley-Bank-collapse-affect-Australia.html

[SailorRob]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11856397/How-Silicon-Valley-Bank-collapse-affect-Australia.html

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/dont-listen-to-a-word-of-what-the-rich-dad-poor-dad-author-robert-kiyosaki-says/4LT7COYLDBSMW3TGYRMB4MC6SU/

[JBmurc]

I think my point was Sport, that I wasn't dumb enough to have been it in before 2020. By investing in the energy sector during 2020 I was able to put significant portions of my net worth into ARLP at $2.89 which is now paying me $2.89 in dividends per year. Most investors don't experience this in a lifetime. And into Occidental Petroleum Warrants at $3 which then more than 10 bagged in 2 years. As well as XOM around $30...

I was not highlighting 'since 2020' as having been a lengthy amount of time. I have followed the sector closely for over 20 years and worked in it for 20 years sport so this is what I was meaning.

How did they create capital, well sport you should know the answer to this. They got it from people like yourself. In spades. And then destroyed it all.

Investing trading the sector? I don't even know what investing trading is mate.

Two companies have an identical net profit margin for a moment in time, wow so interesting bro, Costco has a net margin of 2% and is a far better business than some with 60% margins, why? Margins mean nothing. It's all about what can be earned with what capital.

I agree it will be hard to find a better sector going forward than Energy, this is why I am heavily invested.

XOM has indeed been a poor investment, a VERY poor one over the last cycle as the ALL have been. The share price went nowhere Sport for 15 years... But at times, and indeed over it's entire history it has done well.

Largest Revenues in the world mean nothing. You can generate large revenues tomorrow by setting up a company that flies people Auckland to London for $100 return. It's PORFIT sport that matters and only in relation to invested capital.


If they have been like you say such bad business models then they shouldn't have High earnings to share values they should have HIGH P/E right so you think TESLA was a better business when it had a very high P/E 1000 to present 40's as TESLA has increased earnings ..

Took a while to even understand what you're saying here. Firstly yes, banking and energy are not good businesses but at times can be good investments. In fact on reflection I have no idea what you're saying. High earnings to share values means that the market is saying the earnings are not sustainable. A high PE is the opposite as well as reflecting rising earnings.

Are you Bull posting under a different name?

So tell us how you've been doing since the early 2000's what's your record like, you sound like a real pro.

I bet your house has those really big doors for that head to move room to room ..as I'm sure your a Billionaire from your endless brilliant trades I'm not worthy as a small time Trader (that also invests longer term ) I don't make Millions per year ... I just want to make a 1 Million profit GOAL for a year ... and retire to hardly stress about the daily movements of my holdings..

I've actually never even held BANKs shares or XOM or TESLA .... I'm just a S708... trading(& Investing) generally a sub 500mill cap space on the ASX...

Sport ...yeah I love sport ...Golfing many days per week ....

Really enjoying your RANT.... Always learning and love everyones views on the markets

My record ..not hard to find ... for a really really awesome person like yourself .... ASX comps .... signatures ....

[winner69]

I suppose a profits recession is not good for the markets

[Bert]

Sorry off topic.

Anybody comment on current position - Western Union Co WU ,- Glencore GLNCY ,- Rivian RIVN .
Price and future prospects.

[alokdhir]

Today is 3rd Friday of 3rd Month ...so we shud have index rebalancing drama ?!?

Closing shud be exciting with positive cues from Wall Street ....

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gdp-data-expected-to-show-economy-in-reverse/2TULEGCPYBGQBK3UXVNVEJAVCY/

This shud not suit many bearish rates Bears or shall I say Bulls ? ...lol

[Entrep]

NZ market absolutely dead. Can see why people don't even bother investing here.

[Bjauck]

NZ market absolutely dead. Can see why people don't even bother investing here.
Sure it is a hollowed out share market. However some, admittedly comparatively not many, people don’t want to - or cannot - load up on debt to invest in real estate, do not want to dwell with the convoluted tax issues of investing in overseas based shares, and do not want inflation to eat into after tax returns from fixed interest.

[BlackPeter]

NZ market absolutely dead. Can see why people don't even bother investing here.

dead = no longer alive

absolutely dead = really no longer alive?

NZ market ... well, last time I checked they were still selling and buying (tough if you are not longer alive).

Your statement does not compute.

[percy]

More from The Secret Broker.
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zhdtyjt-yupddjlly-p/

[JBmurc]

NZ market absolutely dead. Can see why people don't even bother investing here.

Bit like this forum >>

[Poet]

dead = no longer alive

absolutely dead = really no longer alive?

NZ market ... well, last time I checked they were still selling and buying (tough if you are not longer alive).

Your statement does not compute.

Has the NZX site been down today - anyone know why and when it will be up again? be nice if the NZX kept us informed when this happens

[peat]

Has the NZX site been down today - anyone know why and when it will be up again? be nice if the NZX kept us informed when this happens
dont think so, though I wasnt watching.

There was $445m worth of shares traded today on NZX so I dont think that is particularly light , but I couldnt find historical volume figures for the whole market. Anyone?

[Cottagestyles]

dont think so, though I wasnt watching.

There was $445m worth of shares traded today on NZX so I dont think that is particularly light , but I couldnt find historical volume figures for the whole market. Anyone?

Had a brief look but got distracted by the WAAGGH index which seemed to be trending up. Don't know a lot about it but think it generally tracks those with an investment horizon of a gnat. (credit the butchered gnat quote to whoever made it recently, stuck in my mind!)

[alokdhir]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/fisher-funds-loses-80m-in-bank-collapse

Maybe what goes up comes down faster ...cost of diversification from home !!! Investing in USA is most dangerous imo as it's been mentioned many times they have the poorest Corporate governance records and very common to take undue risks like SVB ...maybe like our RYM too ....

Still imo investing in quality / best corporate governance standards works best in the long run ...prime examples are MFT / FPH / IFT ...etc

Also with USD already topped ...it makes sense to bring money home for many reasons which include downtrend of USD and uptrend of NZD will eat into future returns in USD denominated assets ....

[SailorRob]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/fisher-funds-loses-80m-in-bank-collapse

Maybe what goes up comes down faster ...cost of diversification from home !!! Investing in USA is most dangerous imo as it's been mentioned many times they have the poorest Corporate governance records and very common to take undue risks like SVB ...maybe like our RYM too ....

Still imo investing in quality / best corporate governance standards works best in the long run ...prime examples are MFT / FPH / IFT ...etc

Also with USD already topped ...it makes sense to bring money home for many reasons which include downtrend of USD and uptrend of NZD will eat into future returns in USD denominated assets ....

Investing in the USA is 'most dangerous'.

I guess that's why it's so unpopular as a place for global capital.

And I guess why the USA hasn't created much over the last 25 years. No new companies or industries or anything.

Unlike Europe or anywhere else. I mean look at Europe as a destination for capital or New Zealand. Incredible opportunities. The largest 870 European tech companies are combined almost worth as much as Apple.

Just give kiwis capital and see what their system of government, governance and hard working entrepreneurs will create, just stunning. As an international destination for capital, new Zealand is hard to beat. Most of the fortune 500 companies were started here.

[moka]

More from The Secret Broker.
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zhdtyjt-yupddjlly-p/The article talks about the SBV bank run and says can you imagine the panic and queues.

There wouldn’t have been queues because many of the customers were tech start-ups and when they were advised by some of the venture capital who funded them to get their money out, they would have done the withdrawals online. Customers attempted to withdraw US$45bn in a single day.

In 2008 when there were bank failures we didn’t have digital banking, nor did we have social media which quickly amplifies fear, panic and misinformation.

James Bianco, the president of Bianco Research, said smartphones had removed "the frictions of standing in line" at banks and tellers being instructed "to count money slowly" if withdrawals spiked.

Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic advisor of Allianz, pointed to the "supersonic speed of information flows and deposit flight" in a world of "tech-enabled banking."

https://www.businessinsider.com/svb-decimated-24-hours-digital-banking-trump-regulatory-rollbacks-2023-3?op=1

[SailorRob]

The article talks about the SBV bank run and says can you imagine the panic and queues.

There wouldn’t have been queues because many of the customers were tech start-ups and when they were advised by some of the venture capital who funded them to get their money out, they would have done the withdrawals online. Customers attempted to withdraw US$45bn in a single day.

In 2008 when there were bank failures we didn’t have digital banking, nor did we have social media which quickly amplifies fear, panic and misinformation.

James Bianco, the president of Bianco Research, said smartphones had removed "the frictions of standing in line" at banks and tellers being instructed "to count money slowly" if withdrawals spiked.

Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic advisor of Allianz, pointed to the "supersonic speed of information flows and deposit flight" in a world of "tech-enabled banking."

https://www.businessinsider.com/svb-decimated-24-hours-digital-banking-trump-regulatory-rollbacks-2023-3?op=1

Where the hell did you live in 2008?

In New Zealand we had digital Internet banking in 1997. By 2008 almost everyone had digital banking.

[winner69]

@convertbond
Never, ever forget - the fundamental foundation of capitalism is to let the charlatans, the hubris filled pretenders, and bad guys fail. For most of the last 20 years we are living in a society where this is NOT the case. There is a price to pay for this charade. It’s coming.

[BlackPeter]

@convertbond
Never, ever forget - the fundamental foundation of capitalism is to let the charlatans, the hubris filled pretenders, and bad guys fail. For most of the last 20 years we are living in a society where this is NOT the case. There is a price to pay for this charade. It’s coming.

Probably not the right thread to discuss ... but while I agree that any decent society needs "to let the charlatans, the hubris filled pretenders, and bad guys fail" ... as well as that it appears that most systems across the world have currently problems to satisfy this requirement - I don't see how this would be linked into capitalism.

It would be the basis for any decent society based on integrity, respecting human rights no matter what the political colour. Some of these systems might be capitalistic and others will be socialist or (shudder) even communist (remember Chile under Allende?).

Any decent society has healthy mechanisms "to let the charlatans, the hubris filled pretenders, and bad guys fail". Any populistic systems (no matter whether right or left wing) and any religion based systems however doesn't, given that the latter are created by charlatans, hubris filled pretenders, and bad guys.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/unclear-central-banks-can-contain-banking-crisis-analysts-warn/102115262

[alokdhir]

I agree this is not the right thread for our such thoughts ...but I also wanted to add my two bit ....

In a so called developed society which we call our New Zealand ...law abiding citizens live in fear while hooligans / gangs / any antisocial groups enjoy total freedom to trouble innocent people either on road or in homes or destroying their hard worked businesses at night ...while our government / Police only show lip service and political hues to inherently encourage grouping of innocent people to protect themselves and their property ...eg ...Gisborne and Napier people had to resort to taking law in their own hands while Government to whom they pay taxes which include providing safety and law and order were busy passing the buck

No single political person in this whole world has the courage to do the right thing ...ie protect innocent and law abiding majority from anti social elements ...they are hell bent on policies of appeasement as their only weapon

Being humane is basic ...but dont let the rights of innocent / law abiding people be trampled over again and again that all are loosing faith in this broken system and society ...activism based on personal agenda will become the new normal and life in general will suffer ...its almost law of the jungle in Auckland at the moment which brings tears to the eyes of most ...no one feels safe and its so easy to bully innocent if u are a group of anti socials with almost zero fear or respect for law or human rights of others

This is not capitalism ...maybe countries like Singapore offer better quality of life and peace of mind for vast majority of its population by not playing politics with law and order !!!

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--xyAAALYSo

[moka]

Where the hell did you live in 2008?

In New Zealand we had digital Internet banking in 1997. By 2008 almost everyone had digital banking.I did online banking in 2008, and it was dial-up, no broadboad, let alone fibre, on my desktop. I had no laptop and my Nokia phone was not smart, so technology has changed significantly since 2008. I also used cheques and bank cheques occasionally, and share dividends were paid by cheque. All that has changed.

[Recaster]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--xyAAALYSo

Peter Schiff is a guy worth listening to but there is some background that is of interest when following his comments.

He displays a lot of vitriol for the U.S. Government and deservedly so as they imprisoned his elderly father Irwin Schiff over a federal tax issue. His father had claimed federal tax was unlawful because it was unconstitutional. It was a disgrace the way his father was treated and he died in a prison hospital at the age of 87.

Peter's comments are best considered with this knowledge.

[Valuegrowth]

Peter Schiff is a guy worth listening to but there is some background that is of interest when following his comments.

He displays a lot of vitriol for the U.S. Government and deservedly so as they imprisoned his elderly father Irwin Schiff over a federal tax issue. His father had claimed federal tax was unlawful because it was unconstitutional. It was a disgrace the way his father was treated and he died in a hospital prison at the age of 87.

Peter's comments are best considered with this knowledge.

Thank you for your comments Recaster. I found it when I was doing some research. I didn't listen to it fully. Insteand, I got my interest on the following. I must make some time to listen to this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20LvD76Zzds

[Valuegrowth]

Peter Schiff is a guy worth listening to but there is some background that is of interest when following his comments.

He displays a lot of vitriol for the U.S. Government and deservedly so as they imprisoned his elderly father Irwin Schiff over a federal tax issue. His father had claimed federal tax was unlawful because it was unconstitutional. It was a disgrace the way his father was treated and he died in a hospital prison at the age of 87.

Peter's comments are best considered with this knowledge.

Thank you for your comments Recaster. I found it when I was doing some research. I didn't listen to it fully. Insteand, I got my interest on the following. I must make some time to listen to this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20LvD76Zzds

[moka]

@convertbond
Never, ever forget - the fundamental foundation of capitalism is to let the charlatans, the hubris filled pretenders, and bad guys fail. For most of the last 20 years we are living in a society where this is NOT the case. There is a price to pay for this charade. It’s coming. Not only are big banks too big to fail, they are too big to be accountable as well.
Much of what goes on now is not capitalism, but financial engineering, speculation or wealth creation. Risky behaviour is rewarded.

There are different types of capitalism. When having arguments over whether capitalism works or not, it is good to ask people to specify which kind of capitalism they are talking about. This article lists six types and what we have that is causing the problems is an extreme form of capitalism, a mix of oligarchic and corporate capitalism.

Under oligarchic capitalism, a small group of elite capitalists (the oligarchs) have taken over not only the economic system but also the political system.

Corporate capitalism refers to an economic system where big companies (corporations) have a controlling position on the market. It is usually achieved through neoliberal policies.

https://helpfulprofessor.com/types-of-capitalism/

[moka]

https://twitter.com/pdacosta — “As the saying goes, the rich privatize their profits and socialize their losses. Just like there are no atheists in foxholes, there are no capitalists in bank collapses”

[alokdhir]

"The stock market capitalization ratio (also known as the stock market to GDP ratio) is a financial metric that compares the total value of a country's stock market to its gross domestic product (GDP). This ratio is used to assess the relative size and importance of a country's stock market compared to its overall economy.
A high stock market capitalization ratio suggests that the stock market is a significant driver of a country's economic growth, and that investors are optimistic about the future prospects of the country's businesses. However, a very high ratio can also indicate a potential bubble in the stock market, where stock prices may be overvalued relative to the country's economic fundamentals.
On the other hand, a low stock market capitalization ratio may indicate a relatively small or underdeveloped stock market, or that the economy is heavily dominated by non-listed industries or sectors. However, a low ratio can also suggest that the stock market is undervalued relative to the country's economic fundamentals, which may present an attractive investment opportunity for investors."

ChatGPt answer to ratios ....US at 201% vs NZ 55% vs Australia 157% ....draw your own conclusions which market has further to grow !!!

[ronaldson]

Credit Suisse to be taken over by UBS. Will this be enough to calm markets?

[Entrep]

Credit Suisse to be taken over by UBS. Will this be enough to calm markets?

What about the other 200 banks that are susceptible?

[SailorRob]

"The stock market capitalization ratio (also known as the stock market to GDP ratio) is a financial metric that compares the total value of a country's stock market to its gross domestic product (GDP). This ratio is used to assess the relative size and importance of a country's stock market compared to its overall economy.
A high stock market capitalization ratio suggests that the stock market is a significant driver of a country's economic growth, and that investors are optimistic about the future prospects of the country's businesses. However, a very high ratio can also indicate a potential bubble in the stock market, where stock prices may be overvalued relative to the country's economic fundamentals.
On the other hand, a low stock market capitalization ratio may indicate a relatively small or underdeveloped stock market, or that the economy is heavily dominated by non-listed industries or sectors. However, a low ratio can also suggest that the stock market is undervalued relative to the country's economic fundamentals, which may present an attractive investment opportunity for investors."

ChatGPt answer to ratios ....US at 201% vs NZ 55% vs Australia 157% ....draw your own conclusions which market has further to grow !!!


Using this logic why not provide a list of the ratios for say 100 different countries and invest in the ones you conclude have further to grow due to their low ratios.

Idiocy to think like this.

[LEMON]

Central bank coordination to enhance dollar liquidity, QE is back

Dollar shortage

[bull....]

big event this week is fed meeting

anyway now that the banking crisis is being contained at the moment moment have any of you noticed whats happening with property reits in the US for future events down the road
mentioned a while ago to watch this space for stress and the last week odd total carnage in this space esp office.
rates will stay higher for longer so it is quite predictable a lot of property companies will go bust eventually as there debt roll's of low rates into higher rates

[causecelebre]

Credit Suisse to be taken over by UBS. Will this be enough to calm markets?

Nah, apparently its all crypto's fault anyway and sh!thouse tradfi risk management has nothing to do with it

[mike2020]

big event this week is fed meeting

anyway now that the banking crisis is being contained at the moment moment have any of you noticed whats happening with property reits in the US for future events down the road
mentioned a while ago to watch this space for stress and the last week odd total carnage in this space esp office.
rates will stay higher for longer so it is quite predictable a lot of property companies will go bust eventually as there debt roll's of low rates into higher rates

Lower for longer, now higher for longer. I have little faith in predictions, are we prepared for negative interest rates still?

[bull....]

Lower for longer, now higher for longer. I have little faith in predictions, are we prepared for negative interest rates still?

thats the funny thing most real rates are still negative

[Panda-NZ-]

Given crude oil is now at a 3 year low.. when can we expect sensible petrol prices from our petrol stations.

Next week '91 better be $2.10.

Along with banks we have these overseas owned outlets sucking money out of the system.

[stoploss]

Given crude oil is now at a 3 year low.. when can we expect sensible petrol prices from our petrol stations.

Next week '91 better be $2.10.

Along with banks we have these overseas owned outlets sucking money out of the system.
Don't worry jacinda had a petrol price enquiry so we must be getting a good deal , there was "nothing to see here ' :ohmy:

[Rawz]

Just buy ALD.NZX. but ssshhhhh dont tell everyone. this is how i get in on the super profits being made

[Jaa]

Credit Suisse to be taken over by UBS. Will this be enough to calm markets?

Credit Suisse closed at 1.86 francs on Friday and was taken over at 0.76 francs by UBS and only then with government support and downside protection. Hardly a vote of confidence.

"UBS said it benefits from 25 billion francs of downside protection from the transaction to support marks, purchase price adjustments and restructuring costs, and additional 50% downside protection on non-core assets." - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ubs-reportedly-reaches-deal-to-buy-credit-suisse-for-more-than-2-billion-8c9bd4d5?mod=home-page

Couldn't have happened to a nicer free loading system.

[bull....]

and markets are drowning in a sea of red today esp nz50 as ubs credit default swaps blow out now and heaps people charge into bitcoin just in case the system implodes in a gfc2.

[SailorRob]

Given crude oil is now at a 3 year low.. when can we expect sensible petrol prices from our petrol stations.

Next week '91 better be $2.10.

Along with banks we have these overseas owned outlets sucking money out of the system.


3 year low?

What kind of calendar system are you using?

[blackcap]

3 year low?

What kind of calendar system are you using?

Wasn't crude at under zero for a while during 2020?

[Baa_Baa]

3 year low?

What kind of calendar system are you using?

Dumb as a doorknob, best put on ignore. Brent Crude is $72.53 now, the three year low was $19.99 in April 2020

[Baa_Baa]

Wasn't crude at under zero for a while during 2020?

WTI Futures shows a spike low of -$40 in 20th April 2020, next day low -$16.74. Two days. Thereafter positive.

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fitch-solutions-downgrades-new-zealand-gdp-outlook/3QVRN224JJHR7PIX7SCHQ6G6V4/

Fitch Solutions downgrades New Zealand GDP outlook

(Premium content)

It's official !

[nztx]

Heaps of Crashings & Smashings going on

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/four-wellington-bars-insolvent-acc-ird-dozens-of-employees-and-businesses-claiming-funds/ZBIAX7HWRBCA5K2ODM3RBM642Q/

Four Wellington bars insolvent: ACC, IRD, dozens of employees and businesses claiming funds


Added to the growing list of similar sector, building & construction firms falling over in recent times

cant be good for the economy, suppliers, and any number of NZX firms servicing these sectors..

and then the toll on employees who may or may not have mortgaged homes, in times of
rising inflation, costs and interest on borrowings..

[SailorRob]

I bet your house has those really big doors for that head to move room to room ..as I'm sure your a Billionaire from your endless brilliant trades I'm not worthy as a small time Trader (that also invests longer term ) I don't make Millions per year ... I just want to make a 1 Million profit GOAL for a year ... and retire to hardly stress about the daily movements of my holdings..

I've actually never even held BANKs shares or XOM or TESLA .... I'm just a S708... trading(& Investing) generally a sub 500mill cap space on the ASX...

Sport ...yeah I love sport ...Golfing many days per week ....

Really enjoying your RANT.... Always learning and love everyones views on the markets

My record ..not hard to find ... for a really really awesome person like yourself .... ASX comps .... signatures ....

I've never made a trade in my life.

They were some examples of Oil and Gas purchases during 2020, irrelevant without the context of how one's net worth has tracked over a period of a minimum of 5 years and preferably over multiple cycles, 20 years plus.

You can easily make a 1 Million profit GOAL for a year, you can easily make any goal. Achieving it may be harder. Depends on the capital you're working with.

You should never be stressing about daily movements of your holdings, in fact you should not even know what they are day to day.

So you seem to be suggesting your record is as promoted in your signature, or at least your signature before you removed it. It had a list of about 5 ASX companies that had gone up between 1000 and 5000% from memory.

[Bobdn]

How come most Western central banks sold off all their gold? NZ has zip now. What happened to "saving for a rainy day?".

It's pissing down outside now.

[alokdhir]

Final sale has begun earnestly ..." No time for fear " is my theme ....but everyone can do their own risk assessments ....

It can get ugly but why it shud stay ugly is the bigger question to answer

I think its start of the end ...recession is already here ...so as per history markets will make final bottom soon ...yes Bull will keep finding reasons to think NZX will reach 0 soon ....rates peak is done ..... No bank will raise rates even if central banks try to do the impossible

Inflation started with crude over $ 120 and shud end with it below $ 60 !!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300834842/why-most-recent-official-cash-rate-rise-didnt-send-home-loan-rates-soaring (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300834842/why-most-recent-official-cash-rate-rise-didnt-send-home-loan-rates-soaring)

[SailorRob]

Heaps of Crashings & Smashings going on

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/four-wellington-bars-insolvent-acc-ird-dozens-of-employees-and-businesses-claiming-funds/ZBIAX7HWRBCA5K2ODM3RBM642Q/

Four Wellington bars insolvent: ACC, IRD, dozens of employees and businesses claiming funds


Added to the growing list of similar sector, building & construction firms falling over in recent times

cant be good for the economy, suppliers, and any number of NZX firms servicing these sectors..

and then the toll on employees who may or may not have mortgaged homes, in times of
rising inflation, costs and interest on borrowings..


Yeah, Blackdog a reasonable sized boat manufacturer and engineering firm just bust in Whangarei, mate who sells marine electronics for a major national retailer said his sales are off 50% and lots of clients on 'stop credit' until bills are paid.

[SailorRob]

How come most Western central banks sold off all their gold? NZ has zip now. What happened to "saving for a rainy day?".

It's pissing down outside now.


What exactly are we to do with Gold?

[SailorRob]

https://twitter.com/JamesEagle17/status/1637703015183552514?s=20

Epic

[Bobdn]

What exactly are we to do with Gold?

Thats a good question. 99.9 percent of NZers would ask exactly the same thing. Why gold?

Helpful article here from the people at Visualcapitalist: Charted:30 Years of Central Bank Gold Demand:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-30-years-of-central-bank-gold-demand/

[Baa_Baa]

What exactly are we to do with Gold?

Gold, real gold, physical, in your possession, is supposed to be an insurance policy against fiat currency collapse. Silver is as well. It's just insurance and for the devoted, it's usually a small proportion of portfolio except for the nutters who go overboard, as a hedge against the most extreme of financial outcomes. Which have been forecast to happen for decades, but haven't happened yet.

I used to post a lot about gold, putting up hypothesis and charts and all sorts of apparently fundamental analysis, for years, mainly to profit on a few miners who consistently produced gold and sold it at a profit, (I was trading their options), but when it all comes down to it ... there are a few who believe that holding a stash of the real stuff is insurance against collapse of fiat currency.

Until the Mob finds you and steals all of it. True story.

And they will. Especially if you post about what you have or intend to have on a public forum on the internet.

I don't have any more physical precious, it's not worthy of even a small % in my portfolio. The chances of all the global fiats collapsing at the same time and gold becoming the global currency de jour, is so far from credible that owning physical gold, or silver, in this unlikely event, is improbable.

Owning gold or silver miners, as some do as a proxy, is even less credible. Sometimes they do well, most times they don't.

[Bobdn]

True, gold can be a pretty crappy investment for an individual. But as the article above details, its not a bad thing for central banks to have.

[SailorRob]

Gold, real gold, physical, in your possession, is supposed to be an insurance policy against fiat currency collapse. Silver is as well. It's just insurance and for the devoted, it's usually a small proportion of portfolio except for the nutters who go overboard, as a hedge against the most extreme of financial outcomes. Which have been forecast to happen for decades, but haven't happened yet.

I used to post a lot about gold, putting up hypothesis and charts and all sorts of apparently fundamental analysis, for years, mainly to profit on a few miners who consistently produced gold and sold it at a profit, (I was trading their options), but when it all comes down to it ... there are a few who believe that holding a stash of the real stuff is insurance against collapse of fiat currency.

Until the Mob finds you and steals all of it. True story.

And they will. Especially if you post about what you have or intend to have on a public forum on the internet.

I don't have any more physical precious, it's not worthy of even a small % in my portfolio. The chances of all the global fiats collapsing at the same time and gold becoming the global currency de jour, is so far from credible that owning physical gold, or silver, in this unlikely event, is improbable.

Owning gold or silver miners, as some do as a proxy, is even less credible. Sometimes they do well, most times they don't.


All good points and well understood, plenty of times in 20th century history Gold would have been advantageous to many people. The post was about central banks though.

Certainly don't need any 'helpful articles', specially not that one which I can only assume is parody.

[Recaster]

Nice to be a nutter.

Gold is money. Things in gold terms don't increase too much in price going back a century at least.

Oil for example is even lower than it was in gold terms 100 years ago.

Fiat currencies are convenient but in the end they all go to zero even if it takes centuries.

Just in Buffett's lifetime the USD has lost 94% of its purchasing power.

Gold has a limited supply while fiat is essentially unlimited.

Anyone with cash is getting slaughtered by inflation currently but inflation is continuous.

The RBNZ will fold like all the other central banks will in the face of shrill cries from property owners and businesses.

But if your currency is not a store of value then your monetary system is both flawed and corrupt.

Gold just went over US$2,000.

[Tomtom]

https://twitter.com/JamesEagle17/status/1637703015183552514?s=20

Epic Yay, the inflation problem must be fixed! Let's roll out the bunting and mission accomplished flag.

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fitch-solutions-downgrades-new-zealand-gdp-outlook/3QVRN224JJHR7PIX7SCHQ6G6V4/

Fitch Solutions downgrades New Zealand GDP outlook

(Premium content)

It's official !

also NZ has been given warning by rating agencies over debt level's , with our current account at record levels and set to get worse with the economy going into recession.

Guess thats why mahuta is going to china to beg them to buy more goods from NZ

In the meantime nz50 is playing out a very bearish wedge pattern which foretell's much lower levels ahead.

[SailorRob]

Nice to be a nutter.

Gold is money. Things in gold terms don't increase too much in price going back a century at least.

Oil for example is even lower than it was in gold terms 100 years ago.

Fiat currencies are convenient but in the end they all go to zero even if it takes centuries.

Just in Buffett's lifetime the USD has lost 94% of its purchasing power.

Gold has a limited supply while fiat is essentially unlimited.

Anyone with cash is getting slaughtered by inflation currently but inflation is continuous.

The RBNZ will fold like all the other central banks will in the face of shrill cries from property owners and businesses.

But if your currency is not a store of value then your monetary system is both flawed and corrupt.

Gold just went over US$2,000.


And in Buffett's lifetime what has per capita GDP done and the standards of living?

What in his lifetime have common stocks done?

It's not designed as a store of value over the long term, cash is just for shifting around stuff - liquidity. Who sat on physical cash for 92 years?

Cash can be invested too you know. I have nothing against Gold and what you say is true but it misses the point.

Nobody needs to sit on cash and common stocks have over the long term outperformed Gold by 11,700% per year. Not a typo.

Shouldn't things in terms of Gold become much much cheaper over time as they become easier to produce?

If you hold Gold over the long term you'll get killed and if yo hold cash you'll get killed much worse.

[percy]

I have a spare $50,000 to buy something to hold for 10 years..
I could buy ;
A work of art and hang it in the lounge.....Enjoy it every day.
Buy yield shares ...................................Enjoy approx a daily yield of $8.20 a day ,and expect they have grown to 2 or 3 times my cost price.
Buy spec shares ....................................Enjoy hopefully that they have grown 10 to 15 times my cost.
Buy a bond...........................................Enj oy a yield of $8.20 per day and get my $50,000 back in 10 years.
Buy Gold Bars.......................................Nothing to enjoy here.Just hope a bigger fool will buy they off me.[ if I can remember where I buried them.]...lol

[Nor]

Gold's been valued highly for thousands of years, except by peoples who did not learn to use metals. I'm curious to know exactly when it became worthless.

[percy]

Gold's been valued highly for thousands of years, except by peoples who did not learn to use metals. I'm curious to know exactly when it became worthless.

When you can not find where you buried it....lol

[Toddy]

The Vikings use to berry it at the end of a rainbow.

[Daytr]

Since 2000 gold is up 7.7 fold the DOW up 3.4 times (not including dividends).
I used to trade metals mostly gold professionally but am certainly no gold nutter. The inflation we have seen in the last 20 odd years is incredible & I am not talking about the CPI I am referring to the increase of money in circulation which has driven growth almost exponentially but also diluted the value of cash. Remember Enron? A massive $5Bln blow up in the early 2000s, now a bank gets bailed out for $100Bln in the blink of an eye. Central Banks have lost their discipline and constant bailouts for doing bad business ultimately just kicks the can down the road until the problem is too big or too scary to face. Gold did offer that discipline.
The ridiculous NFT market that ballooned in the last few years & crypto craze are all symptoms of a very indiscriminate market.
Interesting times indeed.

[Toddy]

Times have changed. You only have to watch the Game Shop doco on Netflix to get a glimpse of how Americans and the younger generation now interact with the financial system.

Good or bad, who knows. Exciting, interesting, absolutely!.

[alokdhir]

I have a spare $50,000 to buy something to hold for 10 years..
I could buy ;
A work of art and hang it in the lounge.....Enjoy it every day.
Buy yield shares ...................................Enjoy approx a daily yield of $8.20 a day ,and expect they have grown to 2 or 3 times my cost price.
Buy spec shares ....................................Enjoy hopefully that they have grown 10 to 15 times my cost.
Buy a bond...........................................Enj oy a yield of $8.20 per day and get my $50,000 back in 10 years.
Buy Gold Bars.......................................Nothing to enjoy here.Just hope a bigger fool will buy they off me.[ if I can remember where I buried
them.]...lol

Buying continuous future of Oil will be more productive use of funds ...imo ...afterall energy will always be in short supply ...many are banking on that !!

[percy]

Buying continuous future of Oil will be more productive use of funds ...imo ...afterall energy will always be in short supply ...many are banking on that !!

Now that sounds a fantastic idea.
Perhaps while digging up the garden for my new oil tank, I will find my lost buried gold...
A real win win.............lol.

[BlackPeter]

Now that sounds a fantastic idea.
Perhaps while digging up the garden for my new oil tank, I will find my lost buried gold...
A real win win.............lol.

Just publish your address ... and others might even do the digging for you :) ;

[Aaron]

While central banks hold it and believe in it as a currency (or plan b) gold is a currency not an investment and it sits on central banks books like foreign currency and any other reserve. A good currency or money is supposed to be a store of value or a medium of exchange. Gold is not a good medium of exchange but over time has proven to be a good store of value compared to fiat currencies. The dow to gold ratio shows that over time it can fluctuate a lot but I am trying to imagine what a $USD to dow ratio would look like.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/dow-gold-ratio/

SailorRob says "Money is not designed as a store of value over the long term, cash is just for shifting around stuff - liquidity." You should tell that to all the people who are trading their time for money and ask them do they appreciate their time being stolen through inflation? Probably they would not be too worried as they do not understand what is happening.

Here is an example of the currency "gold" as a store of value compared to the $NZ

1966 average house price $8,400 Gold per kg NZD $1,644.47 (roughly) 5.1kgs of gold to buy a house
2017 average house price $526,000 Gold per kg NZD $54,094 (roughly) 9.72kgs gold to buy a house
2023 average house price $920,366 Gold per kg NZD $100,000(roughly) 9.2kgs of gold to buy a house

Have a look on the gold thread for my original post. It is just something I tried, so not very scientific and not much data in fact pretty random because most of my data is all based on a one roof article.

I imagine anyone wanting to buy a house over the last little while would have been better saving their deposit in gold, except that this is not easy and I have never tried it myself.

Percy is confused gold is not an investment it provides no yield it is only a store of value and poor medium of exchange. The greater fool theory also applies to all currencies. I agree you should be investing not saving, especially with the central bankers and economists currently running the show. But if you cannot find a place to invest your funds right now you might be best to put it in gold rather than dollars until the investment opportunities arise.

P.S. sorry I appreciate this is not the gold thread. But gold might be good on a black monday.

[SailorRob]

While central banks hold it and believe in it as a currency (or plan b) gold is a currency not an investment and it sits on central banks books like foreign currency and any other reserve. A good currency or money is supposed to be a store of value or a medium of exchange. Gold is not a good medium of exchange but over time has proven to be a good store of value compared to fiat currencies. The dow to gold ratio shows that over time it can fluctuate a lot but I am trying to imagine what a $USD to dow ratio would look like.

https://www.longtermtrends.net/dow-gold-ratio/

SailorRob says "Money is not designed as a store of value over the long term, cash is just for shifting around stuff - liquidity." You should tell that to all the people who are trading their time for money and ask them do they appreciate their time being stolen through inflation? Probably they would not be too worried as they do not understand what is happening.

Here is an example of the currency "gold" as a store of value compared to the $NZ

1966 average house price $8,400 Gold per kg NZD $1,644.47 (roughly) 5.1kgs of gold to buy a house
2017 average house price $526,000 Gold per kg NZD $54,094 (roughly) 9.72kgs gold to buy a house
2023 average house price $920,366 Gold per kg NZD $100,000(roughly) 9.2kgs of gold to buy a house

Have a look on the gold thread for my original post. It is just something I tried, so not very scientific and not much data in fact pretty random because most of my data is all based on a one roof article.

I imagine anyone wanting to buy a house over the last little while would have been better saving their deposit in gold, except that this is not easy and I have never tried it myself.

Percy is confused gold is not an investment it provides no yield it is only a store of value and poor medium of exchange. The greater fool theory also applies to all currencies. I agree you should be investing not saving, especially with the central bankers and economists currently running the show. But if you cannot find a place to invest your funds right now you might be best to put it in gold rather than dollars until the investment opportunities arise.

P.S. sorry I appreciate this is not the gold thread. But gold might be good on a black monday.

They are not trading their time for money for gods sake.

How hard is this??

They are trading their time for other people's time and swapping it for other goods and services in the economy.

Most people live week to week! They hold the cash for 7 days before swapping it all for goods and services.

This has to be a wind up, impossible not to understand this.

[moka]

Heaps of Crashings & Smashings going on

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/four-wellington-bars-insolvent-acc-ird-dozens-of-employees-and-businesses-claiming-funds/ZBIAX7HWRBCA5K2ODM3RBM642Q/

Four Wellington bars insolvent: ACC, IRD, dozens of employees and businesses claiming funds


Added to the growing list of similar sector, building & construction firms falling over in recent times

cant be good for the economy, suppliers, and any number of NZX firms servicing these sectors..

and then the toll on employees who may or may not have mortgaged homes, in times of
rising inflation, costs and interest on borrowings.. More happening than hits the news too. This reminds me of Finance Companies who started crashing before the 2008 GFC.

Property Developer Du Val Capital Partners suspended cash distributions on the Fund and is proposing instead to convert cash distributions into units in the fund, pending a potential public listing.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2303/S00159/fma-warns-du-val-capital-partners-limited-over-misleading-or-deceptive-statements-to-investors-in-du-val-mortgage-fund.htm
(https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2303/S00159/fma-warns-du-val-capital-partners-limited-over-misleading-or-deceptive-statements-to-investors-in-du-val-mortgage-fund.htm)
One disgruntled elderly investor who said he relied on the interest payments through his now locked $800,000 investment in the mortgage fund was reminded he was not allowed to breach confidentiality by going to the media (Business Desk).

[Aaron]

They are not trading their time for money for gods sake.

How hard is this??

They are trading their time for other people's time and swapping it for other goods and services in the economy.

Most people live week to week! They hold the cash for 7 days before swapping it all for goods and services.

This has to be a wind up, impossible not to understand this.

What about if you save a portion of your wages to save for a house deposit. Aren't you trading your time for cash, and you are trading your time for cash as a store of value until you can buy a house or invest it.

A lot of people do live week to week but some also put money in the bank for future consumption. Not that hard to understand, keep trying.

[SailorRob]

What about if you save a portion of your wages to save for a house deposit. Aren't you trading your time for cash, and you are trading your time for cash as a store of value until you can buy a house or invest it.

A lot of people do live week to week but some also put money in the bank for future consumption. Not that hard to understand, keep trying.

Nobody with half a brain stores money for future consumption in a demand deposit.

Saving for a house takes most people a long time.

A quick look at the two fat controllers in charge of your plastic adorned with queer native birds and Queens and you'll soon realise it ain't wise.

[Aaron]

Nobody with half a brain stores money for future consumption in a demand deposit.

Saving for a house takes most people a long time.

A timely article on how people are trading their time for money and eventually goods and services.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other/revealed-how-much-the-average-kiwi-saves-a-month-and-the-staggering-number-saving-nothing-at-all/ar-AA18ScQ4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=777ab9a8c8d54a709534f9470a6eb817&ei=12

Not just demand deposits, I would argue any term deposit or bond yielding below the inflation rate is a dumb idea but how many investing opportunities are there over 7% that don't carry huge risk.

[moka]

Winners and losers – the usual rules changed dramatically with Credit Suisse bank failure. Depositors are protected, AT1 bond holders lose everything, and shareholders lose lots.

https://www.cityam.com/explainer-whats-an-at1-bond-and-why-are-credit-suisses-now-worthless/
(https://www.cityam.com/explainer-whats-an-at1-bond-and-why-are-credit-suisses-now-worthless/)
UBS’ rescue deal of Credit Suisse, has come with a surprise for holders of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds. These risky bonds – which had a nominal value of $17bn – are now precisely worthless.

An AT1 bond is essentially a bond with insurance – with it being converted into equity if a bank falls below a certain, pre-decided strength or capital limit. They’re a creation of post-financial crisis reforms and help a bank to meet capital requirements.

AT1s are also known as Contingent Convertibles – hence the nickname CoCo – and were designed in part to make it less likely that in the case of a bank failure, the taxpayer would have to step in with a bailout.

AT1 bondholders, like all creditors, are higher in the ‘food chain’ than shareholders if a bank goes pop. In theory at least, AT1 bondholders should have expected to be compensated or take equity in Credit Suisse – therefore giving them part of the payout from UBS.

However, Swiss regulators appear to have decided that it was possible to use their extraordinary powers to effectively wipe out AT1 bondholders, with UBS paying shareholders and the bondholders left with thin air. It’s not necessarily the write down of AT1 bondholders that’s at issue – it’s the fact shareholders have jumped the traditional queue.

[whatsup]

Winners and losers – the usual rules changed dramatically with Credit Suisse bank failure. Depositors are protected, AT1 bond holders lose everything, and shareholders lose lots.

https://www.cityam.com/explainer-whats-an-at1-bond-and-why-are-credit-suisses-now-worthless/
(https://www.cityam.com/explainer-whats-an-at1-bond-and-why-are-credit-suisses-now-worthless/)
UBS’ rescue deal of Credit Suisse, has come with a surprise for holders of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds. These risky bonds – which had a nominal value of $17bn – are now precisely worthless.

An AT1 bond is essentially a bond with insurance – with it being converted into equity if a bank falls below a certain, pre-decided strength or capital limit. They’re a creation of post-financial crisis reforms and help a bank to meet capital requirements.

AT1s are also known as Contingent Convertibles – hence the nickname CoCo – and were designed in part to make it less likely that in the case of a bank failure, the taxpayer would have to step in with a bailout.

AT1 bondholders, like all creditors, are higher in the ‘food chain’ than shareholders if a bank goes pop. In theory at least, AT1 bondholders should have expected to be compensated or take equity in Credit Suisse – therefore giving them part of the payout from UBS.

However, Swiss regulators appear to have decided that it was possible to use their extraordinary powers to effectively wipe out AT1 bondholders, with UBS paying shareholders and the bondholders left with thin air. It’s not necessarily the write down of AT1 bondholders that’s at issue – it’s the fact shareholders have jumped the traditional queue.

B!OODY Europeans, they were always dodgy, thats why the go to war every few years, over populated, inbred and hatred of each other is their hall mark !!

[SailorRob]

A timely article on how people are trading their time for money and eventually goods and services.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/other/revealed-how-much-the-average-kiwi-saves-a-month-and-the-staggering-number-saving-nothing-at-all/ar-AA18ScQ4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=777ab9a8c8d54a709534f9470a6eb817&ei=12

Not just demand deposits, I would argue any term deposit or bond yielding below the inflation rate is a dumb idea but how many investing opportunities are there over 7% that don't carry huge risk.

Currently there are hundreds of opportunities that virtually guarantee over 7% with zero risk.

Unless you consider volatility risk.

[Aaron]

Currently there are hundreds of opportunities that virtually guarantee over 7% with zero risk.

Unless you consider volatility risk.

What are your top 10 opportunities with zero risk and a return of 7% (I assume that is for a year)?

Actually I want a return greater than 7% as I want to maintain purchasing power and be rewarded for providing capital but 7% is a good start.

No need for hundreds as I don't need to diversify that much.

[SailorRob]

What are your top 10 opportunities with zero risk and a return of 7% (I assume that is for a year)?

Actually I want a return greater than 7% as I want to maintain purchasing power and be rewarded for providing capital but 7% is a good start.

No need for hundreds as I don't need to diversify that much.


If you're talking about wanting to convert into cash in a year then that's not my area of expertise, I'm talking about equity investments that will compound at greater than 7% per year averaged over the long term, being at least 5 years and preferably 10 plus. Forward returns from here are as good as they have been for 25 years outside of the GFC low and perhaps Covid low.

If you wanted 7% plus with very low risk and liquidity in a year without currency risk then I'd look to the NZ corporate bond market.

One example is Channel Infrastructure who are one of the most awfully managed companies every known to exist, however they have ample near term liquidity and insolvency is totally out of the question as they would lose the pipeline to Auckland to creditors and ExxonMobil and other owners would never let that happen and would inject equity if they needed to, very very safe over the time frame of 12 Months and you can buy bonds maturing in 12 Months for around 8%.

I would consider OCA bonds as extremely safe as well.

[SailorRob]

Also worth commenting that I think buying Gold with the need or intention of selling in a year would be madness.

You'd be paying nearly a 5% spread to buy and sell alone and nobody has any idea what you could sell it for in 12 Months time.

Over the very long term you would be able to swap it for a similar amount of goods and services as now, but what people forget is that goods and services become FAR cheaper over time in terms of what you can obtain with a weeks work (living standards essentially).

[SailorRob]

Basically what I'm saying is better said by God himself;


The second category of investments regard items that you buy that don’t produce anything but that you hope someone will pay you more for later on. And the classic case of that is gold.And I’ve used this illustration before, but if you take all of the gold in the world — don’t get too excited now — and put it into a cube, it will be a cube that’s about 67 feet on a side. That would be 165,000 or 170,000 metric tons.So you could have a cube — if you owned all the gold in the world — you could have a cube that would be 67 or 68 feet on a side, and you could get a ladder and you could climb up on top of it, and you could say, you know I’m sitting on top of the world, and think you’re king of the world.

You could, you know, you could fondle it, you could polish it, you could do all these things with it. Stare at it. But it isn’t going to do anything.All you are doing when you buy that is that you’re hoping that somebody else a year from now, or five years from now, will pay you more to own something that, again, can’t do anything, but you’re hoping that the person then thinks that somebody else will buy something five years later from him.In other words, you’re betting on not just how scared people are now of paper money, you’re betting on how much they think a year from now people will be scared two years from then on.

Any time you buy an asset that can’t do anything, produce anything, you’re simply betting on whether somebody else will pay more for, again, an asset that can’t do anything.

One thing about gold, also, is that in addition to this 67-foot cube, more gold is being produced every year.So you have to have buyers not only to offset sellers in the natural course of events, but you have to absorb something like a hundred billion dollars’ worth of added items of no utility.I mean, it’s really interesting. I mean, they dig it up out of the ground in South Africa, and then they ship it to the Federal Reserve in New York and they put it back in the ground.I mean, if you were watching this from Mars you might think it was a little peculiar. But think of how many people it makes happy.

I might mention that the value of that cube, all the gold in the world, is now about — valued at 1500-plus — it’s about $8 trillion. And there are a billion acres, roughly, of farmland in the United States. That’s a little a million-and-a-half square miles. And that’s valued at something over 2 trillion.And if you take ten Exxon Mobil's, you get up, maybe, another 4 trillion and — maybe not that much even — and so you could own all the farmland in the United States, every bit of it, and you could own ten Exxon Mobiles and you could stick a trillion or so in your pocket for walking around money, and you could have your choice of that or this 67-foot piece of gold that you could fondle and that may seem like a close choice to some people, but not to me.

[causecelebre]

IFTHA perp bonds are effectively yielding ~ 9% as of today with moderate risk. Of course, being perps there is no maturity so not redeemable if the issuer does not call these and the debt is subordinated.

[Nor]

It would be useless if it was all in one place but it's distributed and valued by many, see current price rise, which gives it it's value.

[SailorRob]

It would be useless if it was all in one place but it's distributed and valued by many, see current price rise, which gives it it's value.


Yes but determining what that value is and what it will be in the future is the issue.

[peat]

gold has some industrial value. silver even more.

Interesting post Moka. The Credit Suisse deal is quite unsettling - the blatant disregard for commercial law , to me that is an ominous sign as it increases the risk of owning financial assets anywhere. Its always good to have a mix of assets , I dont have anything in gold but a small amount in silver both physical and virtual (again diversifying).

We are certainly in a time when fear is increasing markedly and this makes me want to add prudently to my riskier investments if that isn't an oxymoron.

[Recaster]

This is more of a worry:

Open Bank Resolution (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-and-supervision/oversight-of-banks/standards-and-requirements-for-banks/open-bank-resolution#:~:text=The%20Open%20Bank%20Resolution% 20(OBR,responding%20to%20a%20bank%20failure.&text=OBR%20enables%20authorities%20to%20re,critica l%20functions%20are%20abruptly%20disrupted.)

These Damoclean decisions being at the discretion of the Finance Minister on the recommendation of the RBNZ.

[SailorRob]

This is more of a worry:

Open Bank Resolution (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-and-supervision/oversight-of-banks/standards-and-requirements-for-banks/open-bank-resolution#:~:text=The%20Open%20Bank%20Resolution% 20(OBR,responding%20to%20a%20bank%20failure.&text=OBR%20enables%20authorities%20to%20re,critica l%20functions%20are%20abruptly%20disrupted.)

These Damoclean decisions being at the discretion of the Finance Minister on the recommendation of the RBNZ.

Couldn't agree more.

[Nor]

It's what I was wondering about at the start of the thread 'haircuts' nzdx. Swiss regulators are outside of EU; European and American regulators say they wouldn't put s/holders before bond holders, and there is to be a legal challenge. Or so I have read.

[bull....]

wonder if nz50 will get a rise today down nearly 6% last 5 odd weeks shaping up for another negative yr ?

[Daytr]

Times have changed. You only have to watch the Game Shop doco on Netflix to get a glimpse of how Americans and the younger generation now interact with the financial system.

Good or bad, who knows. Exciting, interesting, absolutely!.
Yes most are into get quick rich schemes that have no underlying value or security.
I do wonder where this all ends. Numbers are quickly becoming meaningless. Debt to GDP levels around the world are blowing up.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S

[zulu]

although SVB collapsed, recession, inflationary environment is strong. US market is recovering now. don't understand, suddenly why NZ stock market heading down? last Monday SVB news was out most of NZ stocks were in red.but most of the US stocks are green since then. what's wrong with NZ stocks since last week. Can anyone pls help understand.

[clearasmud]

Bounced at the end!

[Marilyn Munroe]

This is more of a worry:

Open Bank Resolution (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-and-supervision/oversight-of-banks/standards-and-requirements-for-banks/open-bank-resolution#:~:text=The%20Open%20Bank%20Resolution% 20(OBR,responding%20to%20a%20bank%20failure.&text=OBR%20enables%20authorities%20to%20re,critica l%20functions%20are%20abruptly%20disrupted.)

These Damoclean decisions being at the discretion of the Finance Minister on the recommendation of the RBNZ.

Unless you are a supplicant for credit you should split your banking arrangements. Personal a/c at one bank business a/c at another and credit card elsewhere. This would help limit your loss if one of the banks goes down. Having a stash of cash, enough to get you over the period of chaos in the aftermath of a crash is good idea as well.

If you are a taxpayer you are likely to be fleeced. The government will come under tremendous pressure to make depositors whole.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[bull....]

fed raised rates 25 pts and says inflation fight still on going
looks they will wait see what impact the bank stuff has on the economy before going to much higher

[bull....]

New Zealanders are poorer since the pandemic and trying to keep up with higher costs could lead to a deeper recession, RBNZ says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131581389/new-zealanders-are-poorer-since-the-pandemic-and-trying-to-keep-up-with-higher-costs-could-lead-to-a-deeper-recession-rbnz-says

[Panda-NZ-]

The first petrol stations have begun to move to $2.15/ for '91.

Fill yer boots & those jerry cans.

[nztx]

More volatility on Monday ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-25/another-major-international-bank-shows-signs-financial-distress/102144912

Another major international bank shows first signs of financial distress



Last night, Germany's Deutsche Bank was in the firing line.

At one point in the trading session, the stock was down 14 per cent, but it recovered to close down 8 per cent.

[stoploss]

More volatility on Monday ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-25/another-major-international-bank-shows-signs-financial-distress/102144912

Another major international bank shows first signs of financial distress
It's a bit like AIR NZ, the Govt wouldn't let them go under.....

[Bobdn]

Agreed. Depositors would be fine. Shareholders, not so much.

Banks really have been one of the worst possible investments over the last 23 years - not counting Air NZ of course. Have a look at any bank chart from NZ or Australia and compare it to market returns. Just terrible.

Edit: ok CBA has been ok but has still massively underperformed the NZX50. So I'm sticking with "just terrible".

[BlackPeter]

Agreed. Depositors would be fine. Shareholders, not so much.

Banks really have been one of the worst possible investments over the last 23 years - not counting Air NZ of course. Have a look at any bank chart from NZ or Australia and compare it to market returns. Just terrible.

Edit: ok CBA has been ok but has still massively underperformed the NZX50. So I'm sticking with "just terrible".

Many worse investments ... hard to keep up with all these companies which tend to start up and go broke (like e.g. WYN, Genesis Research, CDI, to name only a small number). None of the banks went broke, and whether they have been better or worse than the NZX50 depends very much on your arbitrarily set start and end date for the investment.

[alokdhir]

First Central Banks were tripping over each others to throw money into the system so that indisciplined and impatient population can cope with Covid " Misery " ...now they are doing their hardest to snatch away too many lollies they gifted to masses ...to stop sugar high syndrome ...

Poor greedy banks caught up in unprecedentedly fast rate rises ...it seems many cant manage especially smaller banks who have less confidence of depositors

HGH had around $ 4 Billion in deposits with close to 1 billion in call accounts etc ...if people start switching banks then RBNZ will support with liquidity but at OCR+ rates ...maybe it will cost some margin bucks to HGH but it can manage ...but all this turmoil may end up starting something big ...Govts or Central Banks need tackle this ASAP and restore confidence in all banks by maybe providing deposit guarantee for some duration ahead ....

[thegreatestben]

Agreed. Depositors would be fine. Shareholders, not so much.

Banks really have been one of the worst possible investments over the last 23 years - not counting Air NZ of course. Have a look at any bank chart from NZ or Australia and compare it to market returns. Just terrible.

Edit: ok CBA has been ok but has still massively underperformed the NZX50. So I'm sticking with "just terrible".

Are you factoring in dividend and anyone’s participation in drp also?

[Recaster]

First Central Banks were tripping over each others to throw money into the system so that indisciplined and impatient population can cope with Covid " Misery " ...now they are doing their hardest to snatch away too many lollies they gifted to masses ...to stop sugar high syndrome ...

Poor greedy banks caught up in unprecedentedly fast rate rises ...it seems many cant manage especially smaller banks who have less confidence of depositors

HGH had around $ 4 Billion in deposits with close to 1 billion in call accounts etc ...if people start switching banks then RBNZ will support with liquidity but at OCR+ rates ...maybe it will cost some margin bucks to HGH but it can manage ...but all this turmoil may end up starting something big ...Govts or Central Banks need tackle this ASAP and restore confidence in all banks by maybe providing deposit guarantee for some duration ahead ....

There is also around $450m of outstanding commitments as well, things like unexercised authorities.

What are their total bond holdings? Most will be hedged I guess on a rolling basis but don't know.

All banks lend long and borrow short. Nothing new in that. All the Basel Brush requirements won't change that or remove the risk of a run which is why governments often step in because there are too many votes at risk.

Heartland is like a quasi-bank with some things in common with finance companies.

Would the government backstop Heartland?Try and work out the number of votes at stake and which swing electorates they are in and you will have a likely answer.

South Canterbury is the only significant precedent in terms of size and location. The depositors were made good (lots of votes) and according to Lee the government appointed receivers blew about a billion from their mishandling of it.

Not saying Heartland is currently at risk though. Trying so make the point that all banks and finance companies are at risk given certain circumstances and their around 8-12% paper thin equity ratios are not enough to protect them without government support.

[Bobdn]

@thegreatestben, no I havent included any dividends although I dont think it would change things markedly. According to Google, ANZ, for example, is up 96 per cent from 2000. The silly old nzx50 is up 508 per cent from 2003. EDIT: IT DOES CHANGE THINGS MARKEDLY SEE BELOW :)

I use to own a handful of shares including ANZ, WBC and HGH (or whatever it was called back in the day) and thought I was doing ok until I looked at what the market was delivering.

Some guy on Youtube made this point: Morgan Stanley ws $84.05 in August 2000. Guess what the price was on Friday? $83.95.

[Baa_Baa]

@thegreatestben, no I havent included any dividends although I dont think it would change things markedly. According to Google, ANZ, for example, is up 96 per cent from 2000. The silly old nzx50 is up 508 per cent from 2003.

I use to own a handful of shares including ANZ, WBC and HGH (or whatever it was called back in the day) and thought I was doing ok until I looked at what the market was delivering.

Some guy on Youtube made this point: Morgan Stanley ws $84.05 in August 2000. Guess what the price was on Friday? $83.95.

Since 2003, ANZ returned 10.42% p.a., including dividends.

[Bobdn]

Dividends make a huge difference, as always.

Don't underestimate dividends.

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2020/06/dont-underestimate-dividends#:~:text=At%20the%20moment%2C%20the%20ave rage,is%20about%203.6%20per%20cent.

[BlackPeter]

Since 2003, ANZ returned 10.42% p.a., including dividends.

Cheers, this had to be said. Don't put money in the bank, buy it!

Clearly Bobdn uses an alternative coding of the English language if he considers banks as the "worst" investments.

Many investors would be quite glad to take that sort of return home.

[SailorRob]

Since 2003, ANZ returned 10.42% p.a., including dividends.

Is that with the dividends reinvested, or just added?

[SailorRob]

Cheers, this had to be said. Don't put money in the bank, buy it!

Clearly Bobdn uses an alternative coding of the English language if he considers banks as the "worst" investments.

Many investors would be quite glad to take that sort of return home.

In Bobdns defence.

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/news/2023/4933-financial-times-why-i-never-invest-in-bank-shares/

[bull....]

Economist warns national house prices to fall 25 percent, says NZ economy 'still in rehab

And with national house prices already down 18 percent from the peak in 2021, Bloxham issued a stark warning house prices could fall a further 20 to 25 percent

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/03/economist-warns-national-house-prices-to-fall-25-percent-says-nz-economy-still-in-rehab.html

good for first home buyers if it happens not so good for baby boomers wealth or people invested in retirement stocks or property stocks

What happens when housing's 'wealth effect' dries up?



But capital gains are only on paper until the home is sold, while the debts taken on in “wealth effect” spending are real and require servicing with regular repayments.
Loan arrears rates are already up, hitting a three-year high (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131110010/400000-people-behind-on-their-bills-you-cant-put-up-interest-rates-without-affecting-households)recently, and in February 430,000 Kiwis were behind on their bills, (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/131360625/by-the-numbers-how-430000-people-got-behind-on-their-loans) according to Centrix data.

The credit reporting company also recorded 18,400 were behind on their home loans in the same month.
Centrix data allows another insight – by comparing the size of loans Kiwis have been taking on to CoreLogic’s Housing Price Index (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131355760/house-price-falls-gather-pace-again-in-february-quashing-hope-of-stabilisation--corelogic), it shows Kiwis have been taking on progressively larger consumer loans and more credit card debt as house prices ticked up.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131611087/what-happens-when-housings-wealth-effect-dries-up

not so good for retail stocks and other consumer facing stocks

I agree with more people moving of fixed mtge's this yr and next the wealth effect has some way to go to play out yet.

So another down yr nz50 my pick as it all starts to bite company profits and not forgetting inflation is still eating the profits away too

[Entrep]

You wanna be in cash by the middle of the year I reckon

[mike2020]

You wanna be in cash by the middle of the year I reckon

Is trader a noun or pronoun? I feel we need to clarify this early for tax purposes, you could say yes I HAVE sold and bought again later but I identify as a long term holder. I feel strongly about equality.

[Daytr]

Economist warns national house prices to fall 25 percent, says NZ economy 'still in rehab

[SIZE=3]And with national house prices already Bloxham issued a stark warning house prices could fall a further 20 to 25%

[/COLOR]

Anything is possible and a lot will obviously depend on the Reserve Bank.
Part of their role is to create stability, one could say their policy decisions in the last three years has created the exact opposite of that.

Adrian Orr enticed people into property with ridiculously low interest rates and now is having to over compensate on the upside.

Interest rates are such a blunt instrument and do very little to contain inflation when it is supply driven rather than demand driven. The medicine could be worse than the illness.

If he goes too hard it could ruin a large group of young people that also withdrew their retirement savings to buy a house in the last three years.

[Nor]

Economist warns national house prices to fall 25 percent, says NZ economy 'still in rehab

And with national house prices already down 18 percent from the peak in 2021, Bloxham issued a stark warning house prices could fall a further 20 to 25 percent

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/03/economist-warns-national-house-prices-to-fall-25-percent-says-nz-economy-still-in-rehab.html

good for first home buyers if it happens not so good for baby boomers wealth or people invested in retirement stocks or property stocks

What happens when housing's 'wealth effect' dries up?



But capital gains are only on paper until the home is sold, while the debts taken on in “wealth effect” spending are real and require servicing with regular repayments.
Loan arrears rates are already up, hitting a three-year high (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131110010/400000-people-behind-on-their-bills-you-cant-put-up-interest-rates-without-affecting-households)recently, and in February 430,000 Kiwis were behind on their bills, (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/131360625/by-the-numbers-how-430000-people-got-behind-on-their-loans) according to Centrix data.

The credit reporting company also recorded 18,400 were behind on their home loans in the same month.
Centrix data allows another insight – by comparing the size of loans Kiwis have been taking on to CoreLogic’s Housing Price Index (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131355760/house-price-falls-gather-pace-again-in-february-quashing-hope-of-stabilisation--corelogic), it shows Kiwis have been taking on progressively larger consumer loans and more credit card debt as house prices ticked up.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131611087/what-happens-when-housings-wealth-effect-dries-up

not so good for retail stocks and other consumer facing stocks

I agree with more people moving of fixed mtge's this yr and next the wealth effect has some way to go to play out yet.

So another down yr nz50 my pick as it all starts to bite company profits and not forgetting inflation is still eating the profits away too










Could fall a total of 25% he said, not another 25%.

"And with national house prices already down 18 percent from the peak in 2021, Bloxham issued a stark warning house prices could fall a total of 20 to 25 percent, an up to seven percent drop."

[SailorRob]

You wanna be in cash by the middle of the year I reckon


What is your track record like of going to cash?

How has it improved your returns over the long term?

[bull....]

adding to the consumer cash crunch

Rents reach all-time weekly highs
https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976521524/rents-reach-all-time-weekly-highs

[t.rexjr]

adding to the consumer cash crunch

Rents reach all-time weekly highs
https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976521524/rents-reach-all-time-weekly-highs

Landlores will have themselves in a pickle as they hiked rents to oblivion over a time where costs were lower than they've ever been.

My observation has been there's actually a growing number of rentals in the lower price bracket starting to appear.

[ronaldson]

NZX up 1.7% today. The cynic in me says more than a few fund/account managers are doing their best to mitigate portfolio losses as at 31 March.

[Recaster]

Anything is possible and a lot will obviously depend on the Reserve Bank.
Part of their role is to create stability, one could say their policy decisions in the last three years has created the exact opposite of that.

Adrian Orr enticed people into property with ridiculously low interest rates and now is having to over compensate on the upside.

Interest rates are such a blunt instrument and do very little to contain inflation when it is supply driven rather than demand driven. The medicine could be worse than the illness.

If he goes too hard it could ruin a large group of young people that also withdrew their retirement savings to buy a house in the last three years.

Over compensate [sic]?

He hasn't even raised rates to the inflation rate level.

Ruin a large group of young people?

Educate them more likely.

[ronaldson]

There is a problem with raising interest rates as a lever to take money/demand out of the economy. While it impacts borrowers (hard in some cases) it has the corresponding effect of higher interest rates being paid to depositors which returns money into the economy.

I still say the best option in this country at present is to raise the minimum rate of KiwiSaver contribution to 4% (and end any further "holidays"). This takes significantly more out of the economy given more folk are contributors than have mortgages, but the money remains their property in their account whereas money paid as interest by any borrower is dead and gone. Given our savings rate/contribution in this country is far below other countries (Australia is 10.5% contribution presently, about to be raised to 11%) and the yield after inflation from KiwiSaver will be inadequate for most retirements in due course it strikes me as a no brainer.

Of course, ORR can't do this but he could at least make clear to Government it is the optimum solution just now as a trade off against further interest rate rises. But it would be too hard for Labour to do something sensible. They would rather promote a manifestly stupid employment insurance scheme!

[Nor]

There is a problem with raising interest rates as a lever to take money/demand out of the economy. While it impacts borrowers (hard in some cases) it has the corresponding effect of higher interest rates being paid to depositors which returns money into the economy.

I still say the best option in this country at present is to raise the minimum rate of KiwiSaver contribution to 4% (and end any further "holidays"). This takes significantly more out of the economy given more folk are contributors than have mortgages, but the money remains their property in their account whereas money paid as interest by any borrower is dead and gone. Given our savings rate/contribution in this country is far below other countries (Australia is 10.5% contribution presently, about to be raised to 11%) and the yield after inflation from KiwiSaver will be inadequate for most retirements in due course it strikes me as a no brainer.

Of course, ORR can't do this but he could at least make clear to Government it is the optimum solution just now as a trade off against further interest rate rises. But it would be too hard for Labour to do something sensible. They would rather promote a manifestly stupid employment insurance scheme!

So we would have super low interest rates all the time and savers would never get anything?

[Daytr]

Over compensate [sic]?

He hasn't even raised rates to the inflation rate level.

Ruin a large group of young people?

Educate them more likely.

Raising rates to the inflation rate would bankrupt a huge amount of people, including farmers, builders and new home owners. Simply wages haven't kept up with prices so interest rates cannot go as high as they have in the past. One can argue that property prices are still too high, but the cost of building says otherwise.

Was reducing rates to near zero giving yhem an education as well? Seems like the curriculum has done a 180.

[Daytr]

So we would have super low interest rates all the time and savers would never get anything?
Look at Japan. Europe hasn't had even average interest rates since the GFC. Either we have an almighty crash I.e 1930s style not 2008 style to smash asset prices or we need to maintain relatively low interest rates. Governments and CBs are determined not to have that happen, otherwise they wouldn't bail out the banks.

[ronaldson]

So we would have super low interest rates all the time and savers would never get anything?

I didn't say that. I said it is the optimum solution just now as a trade off against further interest rate rises.

[Nor]

Look at Japan. Europe hasn't had even average interest rates since the GFC. Either we have an almighty crash I.e 1930s style not 2008 style to smash asset prices or we need to maintain relatively low interest rates. Governments and CBs are determined not to have that happen, otherwise they wouldn't bail out the banks.

Is this the same as saying that the system has to be kept afloat by effectively robbing savers, as the real value of savings is eroded away? The value presumably being transferred to other pockets.

[Daytr]

Is this the same as saying that the system has to be kept afloat by effectively robbing savers, as the real value of savings is eroded away? The value presumably being transferred to other pockets.
Governments don't want cash sitting in bank accounts, they want it to be invested into things to create growth.

[BlackPeter]

Is this the same as saying that the system has to be kept afloat by effectively robbing savers, as the real value of savings is eroded away? The value presumably being transferred to other pockets.

Congratulations, you got it! The good old savings book is a thing of the past. Saving only makes sense if you save not money, but equities!

[Bjauck]

Governments don't want cash sitting in bank accounts, they want it to be invested into things to create growth.
Ideally. However nz investors have a small domestic share market, with a poor past reputation among many boomers, and an expensive housing market. So many end up with term deposits. Also the NZ government through policies has encouraged NZers to invest in land. With overseas based companies and interests taking up the business slack.

[Nor]

Governments don't want cash sitting in bank accounts, they want it to be invested into things to create growth.

Doesn't sit there though does it? Banks lend it out.

[SailorRob]

Governments don't want cash sitting in bank accounts, they want it to be invested into things to create growth.

So when you take it from your bank account and invest it into things, where does the money go to?

Does it go into the account of the person you bought the investment off?

[Daytr]

So when you take it from your bank account and invest it into things, where does the money go to?

Does it go into the account of the person you bought the investment off?

Things being shares or property etc where the money is utilized, not sitting in a bank account.

[Daytr]

Doesn't sit there though does it? Banks lend it out.

To a degree, mostly they use savings and retained profits to satisfy capital ratios. Most lending is done via credit they take from the window from the Reserve Bank. I.e borrow from the Reserve Bank and lend at a margin to the market. I'm sure with the current higher rates term deposits volume will be returning to dome degree but these days it's considered lazy capital that doesn't keep up with inflation.

[SailorRob]

Things being shares or property etc where the money is utilized, not sitting in a bank account.

OK so when you buy property don't you transfer your money to the bank account of the person you're buying the property from? So the same money sits in an account just with a different name on it? Same with shares?

[SailorRob]

To a degree, mostly they use savings and retained profits to satisfy capital ratios. Most lending is done via credit they take from the window from the Reserve Bank. I.e borrow from the Reserve Bank and lend at a margin to the market. I'm sure with the current higher rates term deposits volume will be returning to dome degree but these days it's considered lazy capital that doesn't keep up with inflation.

This is a dramatic misunderstanding of how simple banking works.

We're in the age of the Internet, the information is out there.

No excuses.

[Bobdn]

Gee, that was a nice surge into the close. Lovely. And pack and save has rump steak for $14 a kg. What a start to the day!

[SailorRob]

Gee, that was a nice surge into the close. Lovely. And pack and save has rump steak for $14 a kg. What a start to the day!

Lower returns going forward would hardly be described as lovely. A massive crash going into the close unaccompanied by business performance declining would indeed be lovely.

Higher prices are just lower returns and more difficult to invest new capital.

[bull....]

Gee, that was a nice surge into the close. Lovely. And pack and save has rump steak for $14 a kg. What a start to the day!

nice mth for the nasdaq 7% odd rally , most other markets didnt do that well pared there losses that about it. nz50 down for the mth

[bull....]

Lower returns going forward would hardly be described as lovely. A massive crash going into the close unaccompanied by business performance declining would indeed be lovely.

Higher prices are just lower returns and more difficult to invest new capital.

i applied that logic to bitcoin when it crashed and its up 40% last mth lol , also as i stated on here meta that worked out well too up 100% now , also brought some bank stocks too recently
gotto be able to tell which is value though thats the secret

[SailorRob]

i applied that logic to bitcoin when it crashed and its up 40% last mth lol , also as i stated on here meta that worked out well too up 100% now

Only up 100 on META. Lame Bull, should have bought the bottom.

I've had to sell a lot as was becoming too massive a portfolio position.

[Bobdn]

@Bull, yes. Nasdaq is now technically in a bull market a guy on Bloomberg said. 'mazing.

[SailorRob]

https://www.consilium.co.nz/news-insights/the-longer-the-party-the-worse-the-hangover

[Daytr]

This is a dramatic misunderstanding of how simple banking works.

We're in the age of the Internet, the information is out there.

No excuses.

Mate I worked in international banking for 20 years in both London & Sydney in the wholesale markets. I'm not here to educate you on how banking works.

[Daytr]

OK so when you buy property don't you transfer your money to the bank account of the person you're buying the property from? So the same money sits in an account just with a different name on it? Same with shares?
Are you really suggesting the same amount of money stays in bank accounts?
The old zero sum game has never existed, otherwise their wouldn't be growth or inflation. It doesn't allow for monetary or credit expansion or new share issuance, new house builds, population increase. So many things.

[Nor]

OK so when you buy property don't you transfer your money to the bank account of the person you're buying the property from? So the same money sits in an account just with a different name on it? Same with shares?

Apparently money transfer between banks is not done by transferring people's deposits because these are liabilities of the individual banks and so cannot be transferred.
I'm sure banking could be explained quite simply (not by me) but it is in nobody's interests to do so.

[ValueNZ]

i applied that logic to bitcoin when it crashed and its up 40% last mth lol , also as i stated on here meta that worked out well too up 100% now , also brought some bank stocks too recently
gotto be able to tell which is value though thats the secret
Investing in assets during a market crash only makes sense when the price is falling disproportionately to its intrinsic value. Given that Bitcoin does not generate cash flow, buying it during a price decline is purely speculative.

[SailorRob]

Mate I worked in international banking for 20 years in both London & Sydney in the wholesale markets. I'm not here to educate you on how banking works.


Thank god for that as you have no idea.

If you worked for someone else in the financial industry for that long then by definition you haven't a clue. Should be independent way before that long.

Just because you work in an industry does not mean you understand how it works.

[SailorRob]

Are you really suggesting the same amount of money stays in bank accounts?
The old zero sum game has never existed, otherwise their wouldn't be growth or inflation. It doesn't allow for monetary or credit expansion or new share issuance, new house builds, population increase. So many things.


No of course I am not.

Money is created when loans are issued.

What I said was that it's not possible in aggregate to transfer money into shares or other assets as all you are doing is swapping your money to the person who sells you shares.

The dollar you send out of your account goes into theirs.

The only way money can disappear is if there is default or loans are paid down (which then requires new money anyway)

You or whoever it was, was suggesting that money needs to go from the banking system into other assets, but it cannot in aggregate.

Just like every share in a company has to be owned by someone, so does every dollar in the banking system.

[SailorRob]

investing in assets during a market crash only makes sense when the price is falling disproportionately to its intrinsic value. Given that bitcoin does not generate cash flow, buying it during a price decline is purely speculative.


exactly...

[winner69]

No of course I am not.

Money is created when loans are issued.

What I said was that it's not possible in aggregate to transfer money into shares or other assets as all you are doing is swapping your money to the person who sells you shares.

The dollar you send out of your account goes into theirs.

The only way money can disappear is if there is default or loans are paid down (which then requires new money anyway)

You or whoever it was, was suggesting that money needs to go from the banking system into other assets, but it cannot in aggregate.

Just like every share in a company has to be owned by someone, so does every dollar in the banking system.

Exactly ….

[SailorRob]

Mate I worked in international banking for 20 years in both London & Sydney in the wholesale markets. I'm not here to educate you on how banking works.


Imagine getting up and crawling into a suit and to go to some office job for 20 years when you also are supposed to know things about finance.

Oxymoron.

Surely you'd be better working on your own terms investing your own capital and that of close friends and family.

[Daytr]

Thank god for that as you have no idea.

If you worked for someone else in the financial industry for that long then by definition you haven't a clue. Should be independent way before that long.

Just because you work in an industry does not mean you understand how it works.

OK whatever buddy. No use discussing something with the illogical.

[SailorRob]

OK whatever buddy. No use discussing something with the illogical.


Look, banks do not primarily make loans by borrowing from the reserve bank and lending it out at margin.

Let's get some cash to a charity by making a bet that I'm right and you're wrong.

As with others on sharetrader you will back down at 100 miles an hour.

[Daytr]

Look, banks do not primarily make loans by borrowing from the reserve bank and lending it out at margin.

Let's get some cash to a charity by making a bet that I'm right and you're wrong.

As with others on sharetrader you will back down at 100 miles an hour.
No fair enough it's from multiple sources, domestic deposits, international borrowing & the Reserve Bank.

So it's not just funded from deposits either.

[SailorRob]

No fair enough it's from multiple sources, domestic deposits, international borrowing & the Reserve Bank.

So it's not just funded from deposits either.


I guess the point I'm really making is that banks create money, they don't just lend out existing money.

Loans create the deposits.

You create money as a liability on one side and an asset on the other (which is the loan) and is backed by future productivity.

So for a mortgage they are creating money today from the next 30 years of wages.

[SailorRob]

No fair enough it's from multiple sources, domestic deposits, international borrowing & the Reserve Bank.

So it's not just funded from deposits either.


This is put out by the Bank Of England and explains it very well.

If you can challenge the mechanism as explained by them, I would like to hear it.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf?
la=en&hash=9A8788FD44A62D8BB927123544205CE476E01654 (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf?la=en&hash=9A8788FD44A62D8BB927123544205CE476E01654)

'Money creation in practice differs from some popular misconceptions — banks do not act simplyas intermediaries, lending out deposits that savers place with them, and nor do they ‘multiply up’central bank money to create new loans and deposits'.

[Daytr]

I guess the point I'm really making is that banks create money, they don't just lend out existing money.

Loans create the deposits.

You create money as a liability on one side and an asset on the other (which is the loan) and is backed by future productivity.

So for a mortgage they are creating money today from the next 30 years of wages.

Funny, that is not what your original posts were saying at all. Anyway we have been arguing for nothing as this is exactly what I have been saying. They create credit which overtime creates more money.

[SailorRob]

Governments don't want cash sitting in bank accounts, they want it to be invested into things to create growth.


I wasn't talking about loans though and neither were you, we were discussing cash sitting in accounts.

The statement of yours above implies that you can take your money from a bank account and invest it into something.

I'm saying that is not possible in aggregate as the cash from your account, once invested in something, ends up in the account of the person you bought the investment from.

So your statement 'governments don't want cash sitting in bank accounts'

Tell us how you get it out of the bank accounts please.

You can get it out of YOURS but it will end up in another.

[Daytr]

Sitting implies long term I.e Governments don't want increased amounts of cash Sitting on term although it does anyway. They want cash circulating in and out of things. You are being overly simplistic. Same when you say banks create money, they don't, well not commercial banks, they create credit. Central Banks create money.

[SailorRob]

Sitting implies long term I.e Governments don't want increased amounts of cash Sitting on term although it does anyway. They want cash circulating in and out of things. You are being overly simplistic. Same when you say banks create money, they don't, well not commercial banks, they create credit. Central Banks create money.


Ok you are certainly changing your arguments but yes makes sense.

If you want an example of overly simplistic compared to what is actually meant;

Governments don't want cash sitting in bank accounts, they want it to be invested into things to create growth'

Glad we got there in the end.

If I ever need a job sounds like I should take your old one.

[Daytr]

Yeah just walk in mate, they give out trading jobs to just bout anyone. 🤣
Need to pass the psych test first though, has about an 80% failure rate from the young high achievers that have aspirations to get onto the trading floor.

No change of argument, you just misinterpreted what I wrote.

Enjoy your Sunday.

[SailorRob]

Yeah just walk in mate, they give out trading jobs to just bout anyone. ��
Need to pass the psych test first though, has about an 80% failure rate from the young high achievers that have aspirations to get onto the trading floor.

No change of argument, you just misinterpreted what I wrote.

Enjoy your Sunday.


Makes sense as none of their traders can even beat the market. If you could exist there for 2 decades and then come out with an extremely limited understanding of basic banking, that says it all.

Any decent trader would not need to work for the bank, they would have their own fund.

If you can show me your record over even 10 years that has beaten the market then I will stand corrected.

[Daytr]

Makes sense as none of their traders can even beat the market. If you could exist there for 2 decades and then come out with an extremely limited understanding of basic banking, that says it all.

Any decent trader would not need to work for the bank, they would have their own fund.

If you can show me your record over even 10 years that has beaten the market then I will stand corrected.

Yawn. That's the problem with these sorts of forums it gives anyone a platform no matter their ignorance and don't respect people that don't respect professional experience. If you knew anything about wholesale markets you wouldn't say things like beat the market. It's not equities mate. But carry on its becoming quite entertaining.

Traders are literally rewarded on performance. If you can't cut it you are sacked.

You are very rude, amoung other not so pleasant attributes.

[SailorRob]

Yawn. That's the problem with these sorts of forums it gives anyone a platform no matter their ignorance and don't respect people that don't respect professional experience. If you knew anything about wholesale markets you wouldn't say things like beat the market. It's not equities mate. But carry on its becoming quite entertaining.

You are very rude, amoung other not so pleasant attributes.


I understand exactly what it is.

What I am saying is that their trading activity, being property on the moon, or soybean futures, cannot produce a return for the trader or institution that beats the return of the S&P500 over a decade.

It's mainly pointless activity that just generates fees for the bank and paid by unsuspecting retail.

Yes some trading needs to take place wholesale to settle trades, but the volume traded exceeds this requirement by HUNDREDS of times.

The nonsense you have posted about your trades in the past says it all, based on these posts, I will offer you the same bet I offered Bull.

I will offer you a bet of $100,000 NZD to a charity of the winners choosing if you can supply me with an audited track record that shows us you have beaten the market with all of your net worth over the last 10 years. I will refund the cost of the Audit once you produce it.

You can't as you are full of it. You lose money all the time with this nonsense.

But go ahead and shut me up, take the bet.


'Yep, its been a good week. AUD/NZD well in the money and actually halved my position. Will top up again if we fall back.
Also went short JPY vs USD close to 100 & gold long around $1311. Been some very good swings which is a great trading environment.
RBNZ fighting a losing battle with interest rates and its dangerous as NZ has an incredibly inflated property market.
Both the ccy & property is being impacted by inflows caused by immigration.
The RBNZ can't and shouldn't fight government policy. If the government wants strong immigration, then one of the consequences is a strong dollar'.

'Loving this pre-election volatility. Went long gold quite big a few weeks back looking at the up-coming election.
Mostly now out of the position. Might look to get back in on a pull back if we see it in the next day or two.
Picked up the pound at 1.2150 as it was looking massively oversold, had a nice bounce since and halved my decent position.
Will hold the rest to see if we test back toward 1.30.
And been picking up the DOW on the large swings. A little bit tentative on this bet with the Trump factor as potentially we could see a much larger shift lower on a Trump win. Mind you if Clinton wins then rates are probably going up sooner rather than later'

[SailorRob]

Yawn. That's the problem with these sorts of forums it gives anyone a platform no matter their ignorance and don't respect people that don't respect professional experience. If you knew anything about wholesale markets you wouldn't say things like beat the market. It's not equities mate. But carry on its becoming quite entertaining.

Traders are literally rewarded on performance. If you can't cut it you are sacked.

You are very rude, amoung other not so pleasant attributes.


Oh and tell us how many screens you're running.

[SailorRob]

Yawn. That's the problem with these sorts of forums it gives anyone a platform no matter their ignorance and don't respect people that don't respect professional experience. If you knew anything about wholesale markets you wouldn't say things like beat the market. It's not equities mate. But carry on its becoming quite entertaining.

Traders are literally rewarded on performance. If you can't cut it you are sacked.

You are very rude, amoung other not so pleasant attributes.


I will respect your professional experience when you show us that you have some.

Working like a monkey losing money for 20 years doesn't cut it, if you were good why don't you take my bet??

[SailorRob]

Yawn. That's the problem with these sorts of forums it gives anyone a platform no matter their ignorance and don't respect people that don't respect professional experience. If you knew anything about wholesale markets you wouldn't say things like beat the market. It's not equities mate. But carry on its becoming quite entertaining.

Traders are literally rewarded on performance. If you can't cut it you are sacked.

You are very rude, amoung other not so pleasant attributes.


If you're running more than 12 screens then I take it all back and the bet is off.

[SailorRob]

There once was a guy named Daytr,
Who thought he was quite the trader,
He boasted and bragged,
About his market gains bagged,
But truth be told, he was just a faker.


He talked a big game,
Said he'd make a fortune and fame,
But when challenged to bet,
On his trading skills, he did fret,
And backed down with no one to blame.


His confidence was just a facade,
His skills not nearly as broad,
He talked the talk,
But couldn't walk the walk,
And in the end, he was flawed.


So beware the Daytr's of the world,
Their confidence often unfurled,
But when push comes to shove,
They lack the skills to rise above,
And their true colors are unfurled.

[bull....]

I understand exactly what it is.

What I am saying is that their trading activity, being property on the moon, or soybean futures, cannot produce a return for the trader or institution that beats the return of the S&P500 over a decade.

It's mainly pointless activity that just generates fees for the bank and paid by unsuspecting retail.

Yes some trading needs to take place wholesale to settle trades, but the volume traded exceeds this requirement by HUNDREDS of times.

The nonsense you have posted about your trades in the past says it all, based on these posts, I will offer you the same bet I offered Bull.

I will offer you a bet of $100,000 NZD to a charity of the winners choosing if you can supply me with an audited track record that shows us you have beaten the market with all of your net worth over the last 10 years. I will refund the cost of the Audit once you produce it.

You can't as you are full of it. You lose money all the time with this nonsense.

But go ahead and shut me up, take the bet.


'Yep, its been a good week. AUD/NZD well in the money and actually halved my position. Will top up again if we fall back.
Also went short JPY vs USD close to 100 & gold long around $1311. Been some very good swings which is a great trading environment.
RBNZ fighting a losing battle with interest rates and its dangerous as NZ has an incredibly inflated property market.
Both the ccy & property is being impacted by inflows caused by immigration.
The RBNZ can't and shouldn't fight government policy. If the government wants strong immigration, then one of the consequences is a strong dollar'.

'Loving this pre-election volatility. Went long gold quite big a few weeks back looking at the up-coming election.
Mostly now out of the position. Might look to get back in on a pull back if we see it in the next day or two.
Picked up the pound at 1.2150 as it was looking massively oversold, had a nice bounce since and halved my decent position.
Will hold the rest to see if we test back toward 1.30.
And been picking up the DOW on the large swings. A little bit tentative on this bet with the Trump factor as potentially we could see a much larger shift lower on a Trump win. Mind you if Clinton wins then rates are probably going up sooner rather than later'

i think you dont get it , some people dont really care about proving to anyone they can beat the market. i mean who really care's nothing to prove. the important thing to me is i know and can prove but your never know because i have no interest in taking your money of you. so you should give it a rest

[SailorRob]

i think you dont get it , some people dont really care about proving to anyone they can beat the market. i mean who really care's nothing to prove. the important thing to me is i know and can prove but your never know because i have no interest in taking your money of you. so you should give it a rest


Please think of the charity Bull, not yourself.

Of course you know and can prove it Bull, everyone knows it, you just choose not to.

We all know you are a trading machine as well as a grammatical expert.

[SailorRob]

Bull, the trader with a knack for the game,
His skills and knowledge set him apart from the same,
He knows how to beat the market, that's for sure,
But he doesn't care to prove it, of that he's pure.

Bull knows the ways of the market's dance,
He can spot the trends and take a chance,
But he doesn't want the fame or the glory,
To him, the market's just another story

He trades not for the sake of winning,
But for the love of the game, that's his beginning,
He takes risks, but he's not reckless,
His methods are calculated, he's meticulous.

Bull doesn't care what others think,
He doesn't need their approval, that's not his kink,
He follows his instincts, his gut,
And that's what sets him apart, that's his rut.

To Bull, the market's just a game,
He doesn't seek fortune or fame,
He trades for the love of the thrill,
And that's what makes him a true bull still.

[Poet]

There once was a guy named Daytr,
Who thought he was quite the trader,
He boasted and bragged,
About his market gains bagged,
But truth be told, he was just a faker.


He talked a big game,
Said he'd make a fortune and fame,
But when challenged to bet,
On his trading skills, he did fret,
And backed down with no one to blame.


His confidence was just a facade,
His skills not nearly as broad,
He talked the talk,
But couldn't walk the walk,
And in the end, he was flawed.


So beware the Daytr's of the world,
Their confidence often unfurled,
But when push comes to shove,
They lack the skills to rise above,
And their true colors are unfurled.

Sailor know it all, he thought he knew the sea,
But his words were as unpleasant as they could be.
He spoke of storms and winds with such disdain,
As if he had never felt the lash of rain.

His arrogance was like an anchor weighing down,
Dragging him under with a heavy, bitter frown.
He claimed to know the secrets of the ocean deep,
But his words were just doggerel that made others weep.

[SailorRob]

You're welcome to follow the Daytr and bulls of the site Poet as you wish.

I have claimed nothing, just here to call out crap and try to learn where I can.

Nothing I like more that being proven wrong as this teaches me something and changes incorrect views I may have held.

Please critique anything I have said, surely it's not hard?

I'll extend the bet to you as well, let me guess, you don't need to prove anything.

[SailorRob]

Sailor know it all, he thought he knew the sea,
But his words were as unpleasant as they could be.
He spoke of storms and winds with such disdain,
As if he had never felt the lash of rain.

His arrogance was like an anchor weighing down,
Dragging him under with a heavy, bitter frown.
He claimed to know the secrets of the ocean deep,
But his words were just doggerel that made others weep.

If you're going to accuse me of being arrogant Poet there's a couple of things you should know.

1. I can make money off any chart anywhere anytime. Also I destroy the market but can't be bothered proving it.

2. I worked as a pro trader for 20 years so you need to respect me. Not anyone can get a job like mine, most will fail right away.

This is the opposite of arrogance, it is humble defined.

[mike2020]

I think you mean "not everyone" :)

[bull....]

You're welcome to follow the Daytr and bulls of the site Poet as you wish.

I have claimed nothing, just here to call out crap and try to learn where I can.

Nothing I like more that being proven wrong as this teaches me something and changes incorrect views I may have held.

Please critique anything I have said, surely it's not hard?

I'll extend the bet to you as well, let me guess, you don't need to prove anything.

you come across as someone who is fairly intelligent but it appears from your continual rantings on bet's that you have never beaten the market ever and it is incomprehensible to you how it could ever be possible for anyone to do it because you cant ( only buffett can says sailor ... he's my hero )

[justakiwi]

Nope. This is most definitely not humility. I usually quite enjoy your posts, but you are starting to sound like a certain hound, with your need/demand for respect.

How about you all just step back and take a breath. It is not a competition, and the rest of us are not interested in the "who has the bigger dick" sideshow.


If you're going to accuse me of being arrogant Poet there's a couple of things you should know.

1. I can make money off any chart anywhere anytime. Also I destroy the market but can't be bothered proving it.

2. I worked as a pro trader for 20 years so you need to respect me. Not anyone can get a job like mine, most will fail right away.

This is the opposite of arrogance, it is humble defined.

[Daytr]

Well I think I have discovered the forum troll, who is obviously quite insecure.
Is there anyway of switching someone off?

[ValueNZ]

Daytr and bull, even if you don't deem it necessary or care to prove that you've beaten the market over a ten year period, why wouldn't you do in order to have SailorRob donate 100k to a charity? It would do some good in the world, and I bet it would feel good to prove SailorRob wrong.
I've come to the conclusion that either, neither of you have beaten the market over a 10 year period, or neither of you are willing to put in a small amount of effort in order to have a large amount of money donated to charity.

[SailorRob]

Well I think I have discovered the forum troll, who is obviously quite insecure.
Is there anyway of switching someone off?

By taking their bet, making a fool of them in public and at the same time providing a needy charity with a much needed hundred thousand dollars in cash. Can get some media exposure too.

[SailorRob]

Nope. This is most definitely not humility. I usually quite enjoy your posts, but you are starting to sound like a certain hound, with your need/demand for respect.

How about you all just step back and take a breath. It is not a competition, and the rest of us are not interested in the "who has the bigger dick" sideshow.

Justakiwi, I demand you respect me and grovel at my feet as I have worked as a pro for 20 years and can destroy the market and can make money off any chart any time anywhere.

If you refuse to respect me I will change my name to DaytrBull.

[fish]

Well I think I have discovered the forum troll, who is obviously quite insecure.
Is there anyway of switching someone off?

Yes
I will pm you.
I have posted before about trolls and disclosed sailor rob as one of his multiple personalities

[SailorRob]

you come across as someone who is fairly intelligent but it appears from your continual rantings on bet's that you have never beaten the market ever and it is incomprehensible to you how it could ever be possible for anyone to do it because you cant ( only buffett can says sailor ... he's my hero )

That's wrong, once I beat it over a 3 day period.

You can't take that away from me.

[SailorRob]

Yes
I will pm you.
I have posted before about trolls and disclosed sailor rob as one of his multiple personalities

Challenge my ideas or debate in the open, or take my bets. Or just try to silence?

[SailorRob]

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uvM9Y/3/

Brutal. Add some inflation to those numbers and plenty selling 50% down from peak.

[Cottagestyles]

Reported this ongoing crap. When the normally restrained Sharetrader community can no longer hold their tongues and start popping up commenting on other posters behaviour it's pretty obvious there is a problem.

[Daytr]

Thanks Fish

[fish]

Thanks Fish
Problem

When I tried to send the pm it says you are not receiving pm

Crypto crude was banned but just uses his other personalities.
it’s very frustrating when they keep appearing.
needs putting down

[bull....]

Daytr and bull, even if you don't deem it necessary or care to prove that you've beaten the market over a ten year period, why wouldn't you do in order to have SailorRob donate 100k to a charity? It would do some good in the world, and I bet it would feel good to prove SailorRob wrong.
I've come to the conclusion that either, neither of you have beaten the market over a 10 year period, or neither of you are willing to put in a small amount of effort in order to have a large amount of money donated to charity.

you perhap's dont know what's involved in an audit or the cost which is substantial the more complex it is or the time involved by one to answer all questions sit down with auditors etc etc very substantial amount of time in some cases.
but yes giving to charity is good , i find buying a lotto each week online very rewarding knowing it is helping some charity and i dont even have to go thru a audit to do it

and by the way to your other question , i agree bitcoin is speculation and could be argued it has no intrinsic value but buying at certain times offers value because of others perceptions of value

[SailorRob]

you perhap's dont know what's involved in an audit or the cost which is substantial the more complex it is or the time involved by one to answer all questions sit down with auditors etc etc very substantial amount of time in some cases.
but yes giving to charity is good , i find buying a lotto each week online very rewarding knowing it is helping some charity and i dont even have to go thru a audit to do it

and by the way to your other question , i agree bitcoin is speculation and could be argued it has no intrinsic value but buying at certain times offers value because of others perceptions of value


Ok Bull, that is fair enough.

Earlier today you stated;

'the important thing to me is i know and can prove' (that you have beaten the market)

So having made that statement, by definition you must know what your returns have been.

The S&P 500 (what all professionals and serious investors call 'the market' and measure returns against) has the following total returns;

2013 32.29%
2014 13.69%
2015 1.38%
2016 11.96%
2017 21.83%
2018 -4.38%
2019 31.49%
2020 18.40%
2021 28.71%
2022 -18.11%

The CAGR over that time with dividends reinvested was 12.4%

What have your returns been over this period, either a CAGR for the period or preferably year by year. As above, you have this information and can easily provide it.

You must include all cash in your results. I.e. you can't have a year where you're 90% cash while the market rips 30% and you only compare your equity portion that year. It's everything every year.

Super easy to provide. You are anonymous here so nothing to worry about.

If you don't want to provide in public, perhaps a group of us could meet at a bar somewhere and you bring along your returns and when it's proven that you have achieved what you say, I will shout everyone. Would need to go into more detail for 'the bet' but I agree it's not easy.

If you have chosen another market to measure yourself against, that's fine we can use that instead.

Daytr, this all goes for you as well.

For me, I have never said I have or can beat the market. It would be exceptionally difficult over a full cycle.

[Daytr]

Ok Bull, that is fair enough.

Earlier today you stated;

'the important thing to me is i know and can prove' (that you have beaten the market)

So having made that statement, by definition you must know what your returns have been.

The S&P 500 (what all professionals and serious investors call 'the market' and measure returns against) has the following total returns;

2013 32.29%
2014 13.69%
2015 1.38%
2016 11.96%
2017 21.83%
2018 -4.38%
2019 31.49%
2020 18.40%
2021 28.71%
2022 -18.11%

The CAGR over that time with dividends reinvested was 12.4%

What have your returns been over this period, either a CAGR for the period or preferably year by year. As above, you have this information and can easily provide it.

You must include all cash in your results. I.e. you can't have a year where you're 90% cash while the market rips 30% and you only compare your equity portion that year. It's everything every year.

Super easy to provide. You are anonymous here so nothing to worry about.

If you don't want to provide in public, perhaps a group of us could meet at a bar somewhere and you bring along your returns and when it's proven that you have achieved what you say, I will shout everyone. Would need to go into more detail for 'the bet' but I agree it's not easy.

If you have chosen another market to measure yourself against, that's fine we can use that instead.

Daytr, this all goes for you as well.

For me, I have never said I have or can beat the market. It would be exceptionally difficult over a full cycle.

Neither have I. But if you understood wholesale markets as you claim you would know there is no index to be measured against trading short or long FX, metals, energy, credit ot crypto markets etc. Share trading would be less than 10% of what I trade. I don't care if I 'beat the market' or have 12 screens which is ludicrous. I just care if I make money. To suggest that most professional bank traders lose money just reflects your ignorance.

[SailorRob]

Neither have I. But if you understood wholesale markets as you claim you would know there is no index to be measured against trading short or long FX, metals, energy, credit ot crypto markets etc. Share trading would be less than 10% of what I trade. I don't care if I 'beat the market' or have 12 screens which is ludicrous. I just care if I make money. To suggest that most professional bank traders lose money just reflects your ignorance.


Very fair post.

If you can't beat the index then just invest in it and you will do better and you won't be wasting time underperforming.

If the bank can't produce returns from trading that are better than just investing passive in the market then their capital is not being allocated properly.

It's a zero sum game so for one bank to do better they must be beating another.

[SailorRob]

Neither have I. But if you understood wholesale markets as you claim you would know there is no index to be measured against trading short or long FX, metals, energy, credit ot crypto markets etc. Share trading would be less than 10% of what I trade. I don't care if I 'beat the market' or have 12 screens which is ludicrous. I just care if I make money. To suggest that most professional bank traders lose money just reflects your ignorance.


But if I can take the banks money and invest it virtually cost free in the S&P500 and beat you doing your pro trading job then you should not exist.

[Daytr]

Very fair post.

If you can't beat the index then just invest in it and you will do better and you won't be wasting time underperforming.

If the bank can't produce returns from trading that are better than just investing passive in the market then their capital is not being allocated properly.

It's a zero sum game so for one bank to do better they must be beating another.

No its not a zero sum game as I have said before. If banks took up issuance in Tesla for example they all would have made a lot of money. It's not as simplistic as you make out.

I am no longer a professional trader & never said I was. I used to do it for a living but now it's a sideline as I operate a business and go fishing etc.

[SailorRob]

No its not a zero sum game as I have said before. If banks took up issuance in Tesla for example they all would have made a lot of money. It's not as simplistic as you make out.

I am no longer a professional trader & never said I was. I used to do it for a living but now it's a sideline as I operate a business and go fishing etc.


Yes but all banks taking issuance in Tesla isn't trading. We're talking about trading.

Yep fair enough but if you were a decent trader then you must have made a bunch of money and with that money, you must have one hell of a business if it can produce returns higher than what you can achieve with trading using the capital you took out of the banking career?

Unless the business is extremely capital light, but still takes time.

You are far more honest and realistic than others, I'll give you that. It's refreshing.

[SailorRob]

And don't go round here saying 12 screen trading platforms are ludicrous, you never know who you may offend.

[Fortunecookie]

No its not a zero sum game as I have said before. If banks took up issuance in Tesla for example they all would have made a lot of money. It's not as simplistic as you make out.

I am no longer a professional trader & never said I was. I used to do it for a living but now it's a sideline as I operate a business and go fishing etc.

Hey Daytr, is it salt water or fresh water fishing.

I use to do abit a surfcasting at my secret spot. Can't beat returning home with a couple of pannies. Even though it probably cost alot less if I went to the local Pak n Save, once you take into account the petrol, bait, gear. Can't beat the view though.

[Daytr]

And don't go round here saying 12 screen trading platforms are ludicrous, you never know who you may offend.
I think you are the last person to suggest who others might offend. When I started as a junior trader I supported a trader who managed the entire European Bank's risk & he would have had 6 to 8 screens.
Tech has improved dramatically since then
& I now do most of my trading from my mobile phone and have access to over 10,000 live market feeds.

[Daytr]

Hey Daytr, is it salt water or fresh water fishing.

I use to do abit a surfcasting at my secret spot. Can't beat returning home with a couple of pannies. Even though it probably cost alot less if I went to the local Pak n Save, once you take into account the petrol, bait, gear. Can't beat the view though.
On the sea mate. Definitely pays for itself most days fuel included especially with the current price of fish. But it's more about getting out on the water and chilling out. Love my sailing to.

[SailorRob]

I think you are the last person to suggest who others might offend. When I started as a junior trader I supported a trader who managed the entire European Bank's risk & he would have had 6 to 8 screens.
Tech has improved dramatically since then
& I now do most of my trading from my mobile phone and have access to over 10,000 live market feeds.

Yep exactly.

What kind of yacht you sail?

Hope its not plastic junk that comes out the other end of a spa pool factory like a bloody Beneteau or something.

Although they have their place I guess for fiddling round the Gulf. Just people who think they're ocean going are out of their minds.

[winner69]

I sense a bromance coming on

Rob and Day a partnership made in heaven.

[SailorRob]

I'll handle the boat, Daytr can place the trades and Bull can be the cabin boy

[Daytr]

I don't own a yacht at the moment, so yes sail on my sister's plastic fantastic. Used to own a double diagonal kauri Lidgard. Now have a classic fishing boat. Will return to ownership of a yacht when I have more time. Some good sailing glass boats out there nowadays, but probably not your average beneteau.

[Daytr]

I sense a bromance coming on

Rob and Day a partnership made in heaven.

Comment of the day!
Haha yes we'll at least now it's a lot more civil.

[SailorRob]

SailorRob, Daytr, and Bull,
Three sailors with a shared goal,
They navigate the seas,
Trading stocks with great ease.

On a yacht with a trading floor,
A 12 screen platform they explore,
Charts and graphs at their command,
Their trading strategies well planned.

SailorRob, the captain, leads the way,
Navigating through the waves each day,
His experience and skill,
Guide them through storms with great thrill.

Daytr, the analyst, reads the market,
Predicting trends and making a target,
His knowledge and insight,
Help them make trades that are right.

Bull, the trader, executes with speed,
His intuition, their greatest need,
Buying low and selling high,
Making profits that reach the sky.

Together they sail and trade,
A team that cannot be swayed,
Onward they go with the tide,
Their journey, a thrilling ride.

[Nor]

Should be a law against it.

[SailorRob]

To a degree, mostly they use savings and retained profits to satisfy capital ratios. Most lending is done via credit they take from the window from the Reserve Bank. I.e borrow from the Reserve Bank and lend at a margin to the market. I'm sure with the current higher rates term deposits volume will be returning to dome degree but these days it's considered lazy capital that doesn't keep up with inflation.

For those interested in banking...

Remember my response to the above where I stated this was a dramatic misunderstanding and then I got attacked and told 'Mate I worked in international banking for 20 years in both London & Sydney in the wholesale markets. I'm not here to educate you on how banking works'. Which then led to me defending myself and so on...

Well in case I got it wrong I wrote to Michael Reddle, one of New Zealand's premiere banking experts https://www.centralbanking.com/author/michael-reddell

I asked him;

'Michael, would you say NZ banks primarily make loans by borrowing from the reserve bank and then lending it out at a margin'? (please note this is a directly taken from Daytr explanation).

His reply;

'No definitely not. Generally banks have v low levels of borrowing from the cen bank (and on the other side of the balance sheet their deposits with the cen banks pre Covid were 1-2% of total bank assets)'.

So... as I said yesterday... Datry misunderstood how banking worked and then attacked me for pointing it out. Perhaps I should not have been so rude about it but it is important if you are posting publicly that you strive for accuracy with what you state particularly if you claim to be an expert and to shut down others using your professional credentials as proof they're wrong.

No hard feelings Datry, but I am sorry I stand behind what I said. You have a dramatic misunderstanding of basic banking.

Please people, keep it REAL.

[Aaron]

For those interested in banking...

Remember my response to the above where I stated this was a dramatic misunderstanding and then I got attacked and told 'Mate I worked in international banking for 20 years in both London & Sydney in the wholesale markets. I'm not here to educate you on how banking works'. Which then led to me defending myself and so on...

Well in case I got it wrong I wrote to Michael Reddle, one of New Zealand's premiere banking experts https://www.centralbanking.com/author/michael-reddell

I asked him;

'Michael, would you say NZ banks primarily make loans by borrowing from the reserve bank and then lending it out at a margin'? (please note this is a directly taken from Daytr explanation).

His reply;

'No definitely not. Generally banks have v low levels of borrowing from the cen bank (and on the other side of the balance sheet their deposits with the cen banks pre Covid were 1-2% of total bank assets)'.

So... as I said yesterday... Datry misunderstood how banking worked and then attacked me for pointing it out. Perhaps I should not have been so rude about it but it is important if you are posting publicly that you strive for accuracy with what you state particularly if you claim to be an expert and to shut down others using your professional credentials as proof they're wrong.

No hard feelings Datry, but I am sorry I stand behind what I said. You have a dramatic misunderstanding of basic banking.

Please people, keep it REAL.

You should ask Michael if money should be a store of value, as this was a concept you seemed to struggle with earlier in the thread. I would be interested to hear an "experts" opinion.

[SailorRob]

You should ask Michael if money should be a store of value, as this was a concept you seemed to struggle with earlier in the thread. I would be interested to hear an "experts" opinion.

He would probably say that yes it should be, but the question is over what time period is it designed to be a store of value?

Obviously fiat over history has never been a good store of value over any extended period, and I would argue that with the central banks of the world telling you and even by law ensuring it loses at least 2% of its value each year, and if it starts to look like it wont lose 2% of its value they go into a massive tail spin and designing negative interest rates etc.

So what it should be and what it is and over what periods are the moot points.

But if you plan to use 'money' in its fiat form to store value over a period of time exceeding a few years then that's not what it's designed for.

When J.P Morgan said Gold is Money and everything else is credit, this was relating to the debt based fiat system vs Gold which is nobody elses liability.

So yes it is a store of value, but one that is designed and prescribed by law to NOT store value over the long term.

Neither does Gold.

[bull....]

OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sarabia-other-opec-producers-announce-voluntary-oil-output-cuts-2023-04-02/

not to good for inflation reading mth's ahead if it holds.

[SailorRob]

OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts


https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sarabia-other-opec-producers-announce-voluntary-oil-output-cuts-2023-04-02/

not to good for inflation reading mth's ahead if it holds.


Good if you have a large portion of your net worth in Occidental Petroleum warrants, ExxonMobil common and ARLP as well as owning 30% of OXY vis Berkshire.

[causecelebre]

OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts


https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sarabia-other-opec-producers-announce-voluntary-oil-output-cuts-2023-04-02/

not to good for inflation reading mth's ahead if it holds.

Nek minit: Saudi will announce it will start pricing oil in Yuan

[winner69]

Hard to believe that next 12 years return on US equities is negative and that bonds outperform equities.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1642182015918260226?s=61&t=iHjDYVMfLj1Ccl5JFHMPjA

[BlackPeter]

OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sarabia-other-opec-producers-announce-voluntary-oil-output-cuts-2023-04-02/

not to good for inflation reading mth's ahead if it holds.

Maybe, maybe not. I am wondering whether the oil Russia is under circumvention of the Western embargo selling to Putin's dear friends (China, North Korea and India) is counted against the OPEC quota?

If not, than OPEC decision might be quite irrelevant for the future oil price, and even the Western world gets the Russian stuff through India.

Anybody knows?

[SailorRob]

Hard to believe that next 12 years return on US equities is negative and that bonds outperform equities.

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1642182015918260226?s=61&t=iHjDYVMfLj1Ccl5JFHMPjA


I don't think it's hard to believe at all, unlikely perhaps but very easy to see how it could happen, after all it happened very recently.


​My base case which is grounded in math is for low single digits over the next 12.

[SailorRob]

Nek minit: Saudi will announce it will start pricing oil in Yuan


Yes they were going to do that in 1975

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1641074551822987266?s=20

[SailorRob]

Maybe, maybe not. I am wondering whether the oil Russia is under circumvention of the Western embargo selling to Putin's dear friends (China, North Korea and India) is counted against the OPEC quota?

If not, than OPEC decision might be quite irrelevant for the future oil price, and even the Western world gets the Russian stuff through India.

Anybody knows?


It's a good point but the market has spoken.

[BlackPeter]

It's a good point but the market has spoken.

Market bubbles a lot ... but, lets face it - market changes as well its view faster than any bipolar person can cycle from depression to euphoria and back. Super-rapid cycler. Just wait for the next news tomorrow or the day after. Market shoots first, checks later and has no clue either what the future brings.

Market hype does not mean anything for long term investments.

[SailorRob]

Market bubbles a lot ... but, lets face it - market changes as well its view faster than any bipolar person can cycle from depression to euphoria and back. Super-rapid cycler. Just wait for the next news tomorrow or the day after. Market shoots first, checks later and has no clue either what the future brings.

Market hype does not mean anything for long term investments.


Totally agree.

[Daytr]

For those interested in banking...

Remember my response to the above where I stated this was a dramatic misunderstanding and then I got attacked and told 'Mate I worked in international banking for 20 years in both London & Sydney in the wholesale markets. I'm not here to educate you on how banking works'. Which then led to me defending myself and so on...

Well in case I got it wrong I wrote to Michael Reddle, one of New Zealand's premiere banking experts https://www.centralbanking.com/author/michael-reddell

I asked him;

'Michael, would you say NZ banks primarily make loans by borrowing from the reserve bank and then lending it out at a margin'? (please note this is a directly taken from Daytr explanation).

His reply;

'No definitely not. Generally banks have v low levels of borrowing from the cen bank (and on the other side of the balance sheet their deposits with the cen banks pre Covid were 1-2% of total bank assets)'.

So... as I said yesterday... Datry misunderstood how banking worked and then attacked me for pointing it out. Perhaps I should not have been so rude about it but it is important if you are posting publicly that you strive for accuracy with what you state particularly if you claim to be an expert and to shut down others using your professional credentials as proof they're wrong.

No hard feelings Datry, but I am sorry I stand behind what I said. You have a dramatic misunderstanding of basic banking.

Please people, keep it REAL.

Are you still harping on? Are you also being selective as I have already posted this yesterday.
Daytr (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?12332-Daytr)
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https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by SailorRob https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=998091#post998091)
Look, banks do not primarily make loans by borrowing from the reserve bank and lending it out at margin.

Let's get some cash to a charity by making a bet that I'm right and you're wrong.

As with others on sharetrader you will back down at 100 miles an hour.



No fair enough it's from multiple sources, domestic deposits, international borrowing & the Reserve Bank.

So it's not just funded from deposits either.
Last edited by Daytr (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/posthistory.php?p=998093); Yesterday at 10:08 AM.

I think Mark Twain said it best. "When arguing with a fool, you will never convince the idiot and bystanders wont be able to tell the difference." or something along those lines.

Now where is that block button to turn off the constant ego driven drivel.

[Daytr]

Problem

When I tried to send the pm it says you are not receiving pm

Crypto crude was banned but just uses his other personalities.
it’s very frustrating when they keep appearing.
needs putting down

No problem Fish, I just worked out how to do it. Peace at last! ;-)
I forgot I turned off private messaging some years ago as I kept getting spammed.
All the best to you

[SailorRob]

[QUOTE=Daytr;998105]Yawn. That's the problem with these sorts of forums it gives anyone a platform no matter their ignorance and don't respect people that don't respect professional experience.

At least you have learned something that your professional experience didn't teach you.

Yes Twain was correct.

Keep trading on your phone, let us know how it goes.

[SailorRob]

Yes
I will pm you.
I have posted before about trolls and disclosed sailor rob as one of his multiple personalities


I have only this account.

Have read a few of your posts Fish, looks like you're quite the investor.

I think Ben Graham said it best about your profession. Looks like you've incinerated a fair amount of capital but they all do as they think expertise in one profession means proficiency in others. This is a whole different game.

[justakiwi]

With all due respect, you need to stop this. This back and forth criticism of others' investment strategies, is not winning you any brownie points. Comments like "looks like you've incinerated a fair amount of capital" - are not acceptable. Neither is making inferences about an individual's expertise or proficiency in investing. The reality is there are no experts. ​Just a variety of people doing their best with the skills and capabilities they have. It is not a damned competition, so stop making it one.


I have only this account.

Have read a few of your posts Fish, looks like you're quite the investor.

I think Ben Graham said it best about your profession. Looks like you've incinerated a fair amount of capital but they all do as they think expertise in one profession means proficiency in others. This is a whole different game.

[SailorRob]

With all due respect, you need to stop this. This back and forth criticism of others' investment strategies, is not winning you any brownie points. Comments like "looks like you've incinerated a fair amount of capital" - are not acceptable. Neither is making inferences about an individual's expertise or proficiency in investing. The reality is there are no experts. ​Just a variety of people doing their best with the skills and capabilities they have. It is not a damned competition, so stop making it one.


Dear Justakiwi,

I am not here for Brownie points.

Would you care to comment on your personal thoughts about someone that I have never communicated with or about, stating that I am not only a Troll, but have multiple accounts for the purpose of Trolling and that I have been reported because of this?

I have never made anything about a competition, I have never claimed any performance or similar.

Fish is of a profession that Ben Graham (you wouldn't know who he is but you can look him up) wrote about from an investing perspective and gave well reasoned logical statements about why they fail at investing. Having analysed Fishes posts I can see why they are not too happy.

If I ever want your opinion, I'll give it to you.

Thanks.

[bull....]

Good if you have a large portion of your net worth in Occidental Petroleum warrants, ExxonMobil common and ARLP as well as owning 30% of OXY vis Berkshire.

obviously your not a value investor at all or you pretending to be one ?
are you as why would a value investor touch oxy
historically oxy has been a terrible investment underperforming the sp500 by miles
to me it looks more like your trading the theme as that has historically been the way to play oxy
So your another closet trader who prefers not to admit it lol dont feel bad there are plenty of people on here who think there investors but there actually a mix of trader and investor

[justakiwi]

You are more than willing to give others your opinion, so why is it apparently unacceptable for me to give you mine?

Regarding fish's posts implying you are a known troll in disguise, you might be interested to know that I went into bat for you and messaged him privately, to inform him that he his assumption/accusation was incorrect, and unacceptable. I don't know you at all, but I know you are most definitely not Crypto Crude.

You are however, extremely rude and disrespectful. You would have a much better chance of getting your messages across, if you dialled that back.

You have a lovely day.






Dear Justakiwi,

I am not here for Brownie points.

Would you care to comment on your personal thoughts about someone that I have never communicated with or about, stating that I am not only a Troll, but have multiple accounts for the purpose of Trolling and that I have been reported because of this?

I have never made anything about a competition, I have never claimed any performance or similar.

Fish is of a profession that Ben Graham (you wouldn't know who he is but you can look him up) wrote about from an investing perspective and gave well reasoned logical statements about why they fail at investing. Having analysed Fishes posts I can see why they are not too happy.

If I ever want your opinion, I'll give it to you.

Thanks.

[SailorRob]

obviously your not a value investor at all or you pretending to be one ?
are you as why would a value investor touch oxy
historically oxy has been a terrible investment underperforming the sp500 by miles
to me it looks more like your trading the theme as that has historically been the way to play oxy
So your another closet trader who prefers not to admit it lol dont feel bad there are plenty of people on here who think there investors but there actually a mix of trader and investor


Yes I don't understand why the greatest value investor of all time has bought 30% of the whole company.

For those who don't follow Warren Buffett owns more than a quarter of Occidental and more on the Preferred. But he isn't a value investor and what would he know.

As JAK says, there are NO experts.

Maybe he is full of Bull.

Occidental is a whole different company now after Anadarko and the entire industry has changed.

The past is irrelevant.

I have owned since 2019 but converted common to warrants during early 2020 and have held since.

Plan to hold for the next decade but unfortunately had to trim a few times as it 10 bagged on me.

[bull....]

Yes I don't understand why the greatest value investor of all time has bought 30% of the whole company.

For those who don't follow Warren Buffett owns more than a quarter of Occidental and more on the Preferred. But he isn't a value investor and what would he know.

As JAK says, there are NO experts.

Maybe he is full of Bull.

Occidental is a whole different company now after Anadarko and the entire industry has changed.

The past is irrelevant.

I have owned since 2019 but converted common to warrants during early 2020 and have held since.

Plan to hold for the next decade but unfortunately had to trim a few times as it 10 bagged on me.

hahahah you just confirmed to me you got no idea , just fellowing your hero even when you have no idea his motive for the oxy buy

there's a reason you have 1 screen after all :eek2:

[SailorRob]

You are more than willing to give others your opinion, so why is it apparently unacceptable for me to give you mine?

Regarding fish's posts implying you are a known troll in disguise, you might be interested to know that I went into bat for you and messaged him privately, to inform him that he his assumption/accusation was incorrect, and unacceptable. I don't know you at all, but I know you are most definitely not Crypto Crude.

You are however, extremely rude and disrespectful. You would have a much better chance of getting your messages across, if you dialled that back.

You have a lovely day.


Yep that's fair JAK, you are totally entitled to your opinion for sure.

I just take umbrage at you lecturing me like a school teacher, but it's a free world.

I thank you kindly for going into bat for me and I acknowledge I am extremely rude and disrespectful.

This all started when I rudely told Daytr that he drastically misunderstood banking and I was correct, he instead of challenging my ideas and proving what he said was right, tried to shut me down as an amateur against a pro (what would I know).

I'm here to debate ideas and if you're going to tell someone they are wrong you need to be able to back that up with facts and evidence.

Again, I love my ideas being challenged and if I find I'm wrong about something it's a great day as not only have I learned, I have corrected something that could get me in trouble.

But often the idea debate is weak, such as Bull mocking me for not being a value investor due to OXY when Buffett is buying the whole damn company as we speak. For gods sake Bull.

[SailorRob]

hahahah you just confirmed to me you got no idea , just fellowing your hero even when you have no idea his motive for the oxy buy


It was tough holding every one of my shares when he ditched his entire position on me I will admit that.

Glad I did as it's been life changing money.

I do 'fellow' a few big shots closely I admit that.

Before buying Occidental I read 10 years worth of Annual reports of both OXY and Anadarko and that took 2 Months.

I would have spent around 3-500 hours I would say and boy was it entertaining when uncle Icahn got involved.

You are right I would not be as comfortable holding such a big position in Occidental without Berkshires tick of approval.