Black Monday

[bull....]

Data shows 430,000 Kiwis behind in credit card payments in JanuaryThe number of households behind on mortgage repayments has risen to the highest level since April 2020, with about 18,400 mortgage accounts past their due date - up 22 percent from a year ago.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/03/data-shows-430-000-kiwis-behind-in-credit-card-payments-in-january.html

I expect it will continue to get worse as food rises continue and insurance increases just to name a couple of the many things likely to keep increasing this yr.

Orr 's inflation fight obviously is far from over this yr

[Sideshow Bob]

Colleague at work re-fixed her mortgage this week - rate more than doubled and costing her an extra $280/week.

Said will be OK, but gotta hurt with middle income, 2 kids, other costs rising.

[bull....]

Colleague at work re-fixed her mortgage this week - rate more than doubled and costing her an extra $280/week.

Said will be OK, but gotta hurt with middle income, 2 kids, other costs rising.

be a lot of pain later this yr for some people

[bull....]

US 10 yr busted up thru 4% :scared:
cant be good for stocks when bonds looking to take out all time high's and talk now of going back to bigger rate rises for the fed.

and in NZ we have bonds at all time high's looking to make new high's and inflation looking like there's no chance of it falling by much if any. the outlook for stocks suggests there is no way in hell the nz market is going to post meaningful gains this yr

[alokdhir]

US 10 yr busted up thru 4% :scared:
cant be good for stocks when bonds looking to take out all time high's and talk now of going back to bigger rate rises for the fed.

and in NZ we have bonds at all time high's looking to make new high's and inflation looking like there's no chance of it falling by much if any. the outlook for stocks suggests there is no way in hell the nz market is going to post meaningful gains this yr

Surprise strength of stocks against huge jump in yields and bonds sell off ...maybe Bond holders capitulating and buying stocks ...what say u mate ?

[bull....]

Surprise strength of stocks against huge jump in yields and bonds sell off ...maybe Bond holders capitulating and buying stocks ...what say u mate ?

stocks dont go down every single day but the trend at moment since mid feb is down until otherwise

[winner69]

NEWS: The S&P 500 turned positive after comments from President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic

What did this market mover say?

[Baa_Baa]

NEWS: The S&P 500 turned positive after comments from President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic

What did this market mover say?

Rules out support for return to aggressive rates hikes
"Right now, I'm still very firmly in the quarter-point move" camp," Bostic said

[alokdhir]

NEWS: The S&P 500 turned positive after comments from President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic

What did this market mover say?

U can be sure he doesn't share Bull's thoughts on rates ahead ...lol :p

Its clearly overshoot of Bond yields now ...so its looking for excuse for a bounce !!

[alokdhir]

stocks dont go down every single day but the trend at moment since mid feb is down until otherwise

Once S&P 500 break 200 SMA then it will flow faster to lower end of range ...maybe 3800 ...no idea !!!

[bull....]

Once S&P 500 break 200 SMA then it will flow faster to lower end of range ...maybe 3800 ...no idea !!!

bounced of m/a's today and agree break back below 200 test lower range bottom again.

See NZ 10yr hit over 4.7 this morning if stay like that be new weekly closing high we might be doing our own 5% test soon :scared:

[percy]

The Secret Broker
https://stockhead.cmail20.com/t/d-l-zhljjhl-yupddjlly-o/

[Gerald]

bounced of m/a's today and agree break back below 200 test lower range bottom again.

See NZ 10yr hit over 4.7 this morning if stay like that be new weekly closing high we might be doing our own 5% test soon :scared:

Would love to hear an explanation by anyone as to why our electricity retailers are trading at the same levels as when then 10 year was 0.5% :confused:

Who is buying these things yielding 3% and growing by less then inflation, with regulatory risk when you can make nearly 5% risk free for 10 years? Bonkers :scared:

[Rawz]

Would love to hear an explanation by anyone as to why our electricity retailers are trading at the same levels as when then 10 year was 0.5% :confused:

Who is buying these things yielding 3% and growing by less than inflation, with regulatory risk when you can make nearly 5% risk free for 10 years? Bonkers :scared:

I totally agree, makes no sense.

I posed a similar question on the TRA thread not too long ago.. I said why would one put money in a 5 year term deposit with a bank when you could buy TRA at double the yield and hold for 5 years. If you believed GDP would be higher in 5 years time vs today much better to go TRA. It’s fair to assume that not only would you get double the yield but also some good capital gains.

[mike2020]

I think people don't see interest rates staying high for long, as in the banks see people struggling already and are not passing on full raises much the same as they often don't pass on the full cuts. Not sure how long they can resist the RB but if you think 5% TD is as good as it gets and it can drop quickly you will have learnt retirement on TDs is no longer an option.

[Snoopy]

Would love to hear an explanation by anyone as to why our electricity retailers are trading at the same levels as when then 10 year was 0.5% :confused:

Who is buying these things yielding 3% and growing by less then inflation, with regulatory risk when you can make nearly 5% risk free for 10 years? Bonkers :scared:


I agree it doesn't make sense buying a low yielding retailer. But buying a low yielding gentailer is an entirely different proposition. Not sure where you get your 3% yield figure from. Checking on the NZX website today I see gross dividend yields of 4.287% (Mercury), 4.225% (Meridian), 6.146% (Contact) and 7.071% (Genesis).

With wind and hydro energy, the energy input cost is zero. So any incremental power you generate goes straight to the bottom line. That also means that costs are not rising as fast as inflation. So income rising at less than inflation does not mean that profits are rising at less than inflation.

Looking out a bit further we are in the process of transitioning our transport fleet to electric power, either directly via EVs or with hydrogen power. And green hydrogen takes a lot of electricity to produce. New power stations can be constructed without calling on shareholders for more funds. Both Meridian and Mercury, at least, can leverage the ever increasing value of their historical assets to build new power stations using the ever increasing value of their historical asset base as funding collateral.

Personally I think we are on the bottom rung of a stepladder jump in electricity demand. By that measure the price of the gentailers today does not look particularly expensive. However I do concur with your assessment that the government going ahead with Onslow would be a regulatory risk. As an investor you have to make your own assessment of how significant that regulatory risk is.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

Would love to hear an explanation by anyone as to why our electricity retailers are trading at the same levels as when then 10 year was 0.5% :confused:

Who is buying these things yielding 3% and growing by less then inflation, with regulatory risk when you can make nearly 5% risk free for 10 years? Bonkers :scared:

add imputation credit's on and you get roughly

GNE - 8.44%
CEN - 6.37%

so these two make sense as there yield's are still very attractive and they are stable businesses

MCY - 4.28%
MEL - 4.5%


marginal on pure yield basis but still stable businesses

also bond is fixed for the time period while a stock can keep growing it div and most gentailers are still growing div's even if they are small increases each yr.
Also fund's when allocating a % of there portfolio to defensive stocks may invest in these stocks to meet the allocation , the yield may become secondary in there reasoning as the stability of the stock price may be more important

the higher bond prices or rates in general will probably have a bigger impact on companies stock prices that have to raise debt or service large debt with less stable earnings profiles

traditionally these types of stocks are not owed if your looking for capiital gains but more for stability and some income and even why you say the prices are similar to so long ago if you compound the div and small cap gains each yr it add's up to very nice compounded returns

[SailorRob]

I agree it doesn't make sense buying a low yielding retailer. But buying a low yielding gentailer is an entirely different proposition. Not sure where you get your 3% yield figure from. Checking on the NZX website today I see gross dividend yields of 4.287% (Mercury), 4.225% (Meridian), 6.146% (Contact) and 7.071% (Genesis).

With wind and hydro energy, the energy input cost is zero. So any incremental power you generate goes straight to the bottom line. That also means that costs are not rising as fast as inflation. So income rising at less than inflation does not mean that profits are rising at less than inflation.

Looking out a bit further we are in the process of transitioning our transport fleet to electric power, either directly via EVs or with hydrogen power. And green hydrogen takes a lot of electricity to produce. New power stations can be constructed without calling on shareholders for more funds. Both Meridian and Mercury, at least, can leverage the ever increasing value of their historical assets to build new power stations using the ever increasing value of their historical asset base as funding collateral.

Personally I think we are on the bottom rung of a stepladder jump in electricity demand. By that measure the price of the gentailers today does not look particularly expensive. However I do concur with your assessment that the government going ahead with Onslow would be a regulatory risk. As an investor you have to make your own assessment of how significant that regulatory risk is.

SNOOPY

Liquid hydrogen has the density of polystyrene. Where you gonna store it bro.

Also... Gross dividend yields mean nothing.

[Snoopy]

Liquid hydrogen has the density of polystyrene. Where you gonna store it bro.


I never mentioned 'liquid hydrogen'. Fuel cell vehicle technology exists. The problem with running heavy trucks on batteries is that the weight of the battery required, severely compromises the payload that can be carried. Fuel cell technology is one way around this. The technology has been proven to work technically and heavy vehicle trials are due to commence in New Zealand. Exactly how hydrogen is used is immaterial to the fact that if this technology is to reduce emissions, then green hydrogen must be used. And the only companies in NZ that can supply the green energy to produce green hydrogen are the gentailers.



Also... Gross dividend yields mean nothing.


Obviously I don't agree. What point are you trying to make?

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

I never mentioned 'liquid hydrogen'. Fuel cell vehicle technology exists. The problem with running heavy trucks on batteries is that the weight of the battery required, severely compromises the payload that can be carried. Fuel cell technology is one way around this. The technology has been proven to work technically and heavy vehicle trials are due to commence in New Zealand. Exactly how hydrogen is used is immaterial to the fact that if this technology is to reduce emissions, then green hydrogen must be used. And the only companies in NZ that can supply the green energy to produce green hydrogen are the gentailers.



Obviously I don't agree. What point are you trying to make?

SNOOPY


Oh my god Snoop, have you any idea what you're saying?!

Ok, so you're going to use GAS phase hydrogen???? So for 1kg of fuel, your going to carry an 11 square meter balloon with you? Is this the Hindenburg?

So how it is used is immaterial? You have a way of changing physics?

I think bro it needs to be Liquid or gas I suggest you do some research on the respective volumes of each that 1kg of mass occupies.

'I never mentioned liquid hydrogen' Share trader quote of the year so far! You imply by this that you honestly think gas hydrogen is feasible thus showing a massive display of ignorance on the topic.

Please tell us how much total energy is available from gas phase hydrogen per meter squared?

[SailorRob]

I never mentioned 'liquid hydrogen'. Fuel cell vehicle technology exists. The problem with running heavy trucks on batteries is that the weight of the battery required, severely compromises the payload that can be carried. Fuel cell technology is one way around this. The technology has been proven to work technically and heavy vehicle trials are due to commence in New Zealand. Exactly how hydrogen is used is immaterial to the fact that if this technology is to reduce emissions, then green hydrogen must be used. And the only companies in NZ that can supply the green energy to produce green hydrogen are the gentailers.



Obviously I don't agree. What point are you trying to make?

SNOOPY


Anyone can pay a massive dividend funded by other imbeciles.

The only thing that matters is long term sustainable earnings in relation to the CAPITAL required to produce them.

The energy inputs to get output from these sources are MASSIVE.

[Snoopy]

Anyone can pay a massive dividend funded by other imbeciles.

The only thing that matters is long term sustainable earnings in relation to the CAPITAL required to produce them.

The energy inputs to get output from these sources are MASSIVE.


Please repeat your post with the pronouns and collective nouns I have highlighted in bold illustrated by specific examples. The way you have written your post, I cannot decipher what you are referring to,

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

Please repeat your post with the pronouns and collective nouns I have highlighted in bold illustrated by specific examples. The way you have written your post, I cannot decipher what you are referring to,

SNOOPY


And what about on the Hydrogen sport? No comment?

[SailorRob]

Please repeat your post with the pronouns and collective nouns I have highlighted in bold illustrated by specific examples. The way you have written your post, I cannot decipher what you are referring to,

SNOOPY


What I mean is that Dividends are irrelevant unless they are paid out from sustainable earnings and that they have to be in relation to the capital provided.

Very often the dividend isn't paid out of sustainable earnings, it's paid from raising more debt or equity capital - thus funded by other fools.


Now even if the dividend is paid from earnings... if 'other imbeciles' invest a billion dollars into capital that then provides a 20 million dollar dividend to you - your dividend is essentially funded by them. Dividends men nothing without the context of how they are paid.


The energy you have to put into the 'renewable' sources are phenomenal.

Spend the day researching the manufacturer of a wind turbine, then the transportation and the installation, then the maintenance. All fossil fuel intensive.

First you must mine all the base materials for the steel and transport it to the sea, then to China where you must smelt it with Coal, also mined and shipped, (various other metals too) then the epoxy and other chemicals for the blades, the copper for the motor, many parts air freighted all over the show. Then transport the steel elsewhere to be fabricated into the windmill, then get it all to NZ, then up the mountain and then make a **** load of concrete, again all mined and transported all over the show, the dig massive holes with big diesel equipment.

Missing thousands of steps here - but get the picture.

[fish]

Anyone can pay a massive dividend funded by other imbeciles.

The only thing that matters is long term sustainable earnings in relation to the CAPITAL required to produce them.

The energy inputs to get output from these sources are MASSIVE.

Are your investments in cryptocurrencies like this?

[SailorRob]

Are your investments in cryptocurrencies like this?


There is no such thing as investments in cryptocurrencies, let alone mine.

If you are however talking about speculation in crypto, if you profit from such folly, where did your profit come from?

[fish]

There is no such thing as investments in cryptocurrencies, let alone mine.

If you are however talking about speculation in crypto, if you profit from such folly, where did your profit come from?

Are you making a profit in your crypto speculation at the expense of imbeciles?

[SailorRob]

Are you making a profit in your crypto speculation at the expense of imbeciles?

Not personally as I don't touch the crap.

But anyone who does profit, yes you are 100% correct.

And I guess they are fair game. Check out the 'fortune favours the brave' superbowl adverts.

[Snoopy]

And what about on the Hydrogen sport? No comment?


This is getting way off topic. The point I was making is that you need renewable energy to make green hydrogen. And New Zealand is in a good position to increase renewable energy production, and some of that could go towards producing green hydrogen. Therefore you can look at the NZ gentailers as 'growth stories' that should not just be invested in purely as a 'bond substitute'.

You seem to be making the argument that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are impractical to implement, and so the whole green hydrogen thing is a 'greenie fantasy'.

You do not seem to know that hydrogen fuel cell trucks are already available in New Zealand
https://www.hyundai.co.nz/trucks/xcient/fuel-cell

And that they are on the road here in NZ right now
https://www.hyundai.co.nz/nz-post-first-kiwi-owner-of-hyundai-hydrogen-powered-truck

SNOOPY

[Nor]

Oh my god Snoop, have you any idea what you're saying?!

Ok, so you're going to use GAS phase hydrogen???? So for 1kg of fuel, your going to carry an 11 square meter balloon with you? Is this the Hindenburg?

So how it is used is immaterial? You have a way of changing physics?

I think bro it needs to be Liquid or gas I suggest you do some research on the respective volumes of each that 1kg of mass occupies.

'I never mentioned liquid hydrogen' Share trader quote of the year so far! You imply by this that you honestly think gas hydrogen is feasible thus showing a massive display of ignorance on the topic.

Please tell us how much total energy is available from gas phase hydrogen per meter squared?

From Air Liquide

"A volume of around 11 m3 (which is the volume of the trunk of a large utility or commercial vehicle) is needed to store just 1 kg of hydrogen, which is the quantity needed to drive 100 km. For this reason, its density must be increased using one of the following techniques:

High-pressure storage in the gaseous form
Very low temperature storage in the liquid form
Hydride-based storage in the solid form"

Hydrogen can be compressed, it doesn't have to be liquified. 11 Cubic metres is the uncompressed volume.

[Snoopy]

The energy you have to put into the 'renewable' sources are phenomenal.

Spend the day researching the manufacturer of a wind turbine, then the transportation and the installation, then the maintenance. All fossil fuel intensive.

First you must mine all the base materials for the steel and transport it to the sea, then to China where you must smelt it with Coal, also mined and shipped, (various other metals too) then the epoxy and other chemicals for the blades, the copper for the motor, many parts air freighted all over the show. Then transport the steel elsewhere to be fabricated into the windmill, then get it all to NZ, then up the mountain and then make a **** load of concrete, again all mined and transported all over the show, the dig massive holes with big diesel equipment.

Missing thousands of steps here - but get the picture.


Yes I get the picture, and I don't disagree with what you are saying. But so what? A 'dirty' gas turbine engine, such as Huntly Unit 5, also requires high tech metallurgical processing in the manufacturing after all the base metals have been mined at vast fossil fuel energy expense. It has to be shipped to NZ under fossil fuel power. It needs a large concrete foundation and a building in which to house it, all done with fossil fuel guzzling diesel equipment.

I agree that not all processes in the manufacture of wind turbines are renewable, just as there is plenty of non renewable energy, put into the manufacture of a non renewable electricity generation projects. But in one case the fossil fuel use drops almost to zero once the wind turbine is commissioned, Yet in the case of the gas turbine the fossil fuel use keeps going. You see the difference?

SNOOPY

[ynot]

This is getting way off topic. The point I was making is that you need renewable energy to make green hydrogen. And New Zealand is in a good position to increase renewable energy production, and some of that could go towards producing green hydrogen. Therefore you can look at the NZ gentailers as 'growth stories' that should not just be invested in purely as a 'bond substitute'.

You seem to be making the argument that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are impractical to implement, and so the whole green hydrogen thing is a 'greenie fantasy'.

You do not seem to know that hydrogen fuel cell trucks are already available in New Zealand
https://www.hyundai.co.nz/trucks/xcient/fuel-cell

And that they are on the road here in NZ right now
https://www.hyundai.co.nz/nz-post-first-kiwi-owner-of-hyundai-hydrogen-powered-truck

SNOOPY
That's interesting. H2 definitely has potential. The 350bar operating pressure is something to ponder, likewise the vehicle cost. Not sure how affordable they will be in my lifetime.

[Snoopy]

What I mean is that Dividends are irrelevant unless they are paid out from sustainable earnings and that they have to be in relation to the capital provided.

Very often the dividend isn't paid out of sustainable earnings, it's paid from raising more debt or equity capital - thus funded by other fools.

Now even if the dividend is paid from earnings... if 'other imbeciles' invest a billion dollars into capital that then provides a 20 million dollar dividend to you - your dividend is essentially funded by them. Dividends mean nothing without the context of how they are paid.


What you are saying 'makes sense' in a 'general sense'. But the gentailers operate under a slightly different set of rules. Yes they pay out more than their earnings as dividends. But it is sustainable, because there is a mismatch between 'accounting depreciation' and the real life, and value of the assets they are depreciating.

The maximum depreciation time for assets that I have seen on the books is 100 years. But some of those hydro dams I am sure would have a life of several hundred years. This means the underlying profit is being understated because of accounting rules. But it gets even better than this

The way the electricity market works in NZ, the price received for energy supplied is equal to the highest marginal cost of supply. Generally the marginal cost of incremental electricity supply creeps higher, because modern construction costs exceed historical construction costs. However, the gentailers receive today's electricity price, on an historical cost base. This has the effect of increasing the value of legacy assets, a process I term the 'accumulation of thin air capital'.

This 'thin air capital' is not supplied by shareholders, nor does it come from borrowing funds from banks. So no imbecile is supplying it. It really does appear out of thin air, at no cost to the company. And as long as power prices keep rising it is a renewable source of capital that keeps coming. So I don't have an issue with a gentailer spending some of that thin air capital on bumping up dividends.

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

What you are saying 'makes sense' in a 'general sense'. But the gentailers operate under a slightly different set of rules. Yes they pay out more than their earnings as dividends. But it is sustainable, because there is a mismatch between 'accounting depreciation' and the real life, and value of the assets they are depreciating.

The maximum depreciation time for assets that I have seen on the books is 100 years. But some of those hydro dams I am sure would have a life of several hundred years. This means the underlying profit is being understated because of accounting rules. But it gets even better than this

The way the electricity market works in NZ, the price received for energy supplied is equal to the highest marginal cost of supply. Generally the marginal cost of incremental electricity supply creeps higher, because modern construction costs exceed historical construction costs. However, the gentailers receive today's electricity price, on an historical cost base. This has the effect of increasing the value of legacy assets, a process I term the 'accumulation of thin air capital'.


Yes I agree 100%. They don't pay out more than their earnings, just the earnings are incorrect due to accounting not measuring them properly.

Understanding maintenance capital is the key as well as the big say one in 20 year items that may have to be taken care of (structural repairs or whatever). Something I have no idea about.

[SailorRob]

This is getting way off topic. The point I was making is that you need renewable energy to make green hydrogen. And New Zealand is in a good position to increase renewable energy production, and some of that could go towards producing green hydrogen. Therefore you can look at the NZ gentailers as 'growth stories' that should not just be invested in purely as a 'bond substitute'.

You seem to be making the argument that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are impractical to implement, and so the whole green hydrogen thing is a 'greenie fantasy'.

You do not seem to know that hydrogen fuel cell trucks are already available in New Zealand
https://www.hyundai.co.nz/trucks/xcient/fuel-cell

And that they are on the road here in NZ right now
https://www.hyundai.co.nz/nz-post-first-kiwi-owner-of-hyundai-hydrogen-powered-truck

SNOOPY


Yes I am well aware.

I am also aware that there are a number of Donkeys in NZ that can also be used as transport. However they will not be as it's impractical and inefficient.

The stats you see for kg of hydrogen per 100km are all for tiny lightweight cars that are tested in lab conditions, my point is that it takes energy to move a vehicle and no matter how efficient you get there is only a certain amount of energy per kg of Hydrogen.

Now I don't think Nor got the point I was making, of course hydrogen has to be liquid for use in transport, BUT it still has the density of polystyrene, you cannot compress it more. So you are stuck with volume issues that cannot be solved. A kg takes up x room and has x energy.

Also you have the pressure issue and the network and all kinds of other physics based limitations. So yes it is a greenie fantasy.

[SailorRob]

Yes I get the picture, and I don't disagree with what you are saying. But so what? A 'dirty' gas turbine engine, such as Huntly Unit 5, also requires high tech metallurgical processing in the manufacturing after all the base metals have been mined at vast fossil fuel energy expense. It has to be shipped to NZ under fossil fuel power. It needs a large concrete foundation and a building in which to house it, all done with fossil fuel guzzling diesel equipment.

I agree that not all processes in the manufacture of wind turbines are renewable, just as there is plenty of non renewable energy, put into the manufacture of a non renewable electricity generation projects. But in one case the fossil fuel use drops almost to zero once the wind turbine is commissioned, Yet in the case of the gas turbine the fossil fuel use keeps going. You see the difference?

SNOOPY


I see the difference but it's all about total energy input vs total output over the life of the equipment.

Gas turbine engine is by definition green energy, not as green as coal however.

Co2 greens the world. Ash from burning coal I understand is great fertiliser.

There is the belief that a one ten thousandth PPM change in the concentration of a trace atmosphere gas is changing the worlds climate for the worse but there is no evidence that this is so. The solution is to give the government and big corporations more of your money and they will cool the world for us.

When was the last time the Northern Ice sheet was as far South as New York?

When did the glaciers last touch the sea in the Fiords of South Island?

When did each begin to rapidly recede and why?

How many times has each of the above moved back and forth over the last 100,000 years?

Are we currently in the middle of an Ice age?

Were storms in NZ far more intense and frequent in the late 1800's in NZ than they are today?

How was the Esk valley formed? If the large flat area of this river valley was formed by the deposition of silt in previous floods, how much rain was required seeing that the hill country was heavily forested?

Has there been any change in the frequency or intensity of American Hurricanes over the last 200 years?

How many climate change studying ships have been trapped in pack ice in the last 10 years and needed rescue?

Don't ask questions, just give more of your money to the government and they will cool the world.

[Snoopy]

I see the difference but it's all about total energy input vs total output over the life of the equipment.


That is a position that I agree with. I think you would be hard pressed to say that NZ's hydro energy program has not ticked that box. I am old enough to remember the grizzling about cost overruns on the most recently commissioned of those, the Clyde dam project. No one seems to be complaining about the cost benefit equation on that today.

Moving on to wind turbines, I guess we won't know the answer until one of those established windfarms comes up for a long term upgrade. We can get a hint though, from what happened to New Zealand's oldest commercial wind turbine, installed in the hills above Brooklyn Wellington in 1993.

https://www.windenergy.org.nz/brooklyn-wind-turbine

After 23 years service it was replaced in 2016. However, according to that link, the original turbine was not scrapped.

"It was removed and delivered to its new owners Energy3, a supplier and installer of turbines for smaller commercial wind farms."

So that original turbine lives on, all the time bolstering the 'energy in' 'energy out' equation.



Gas turbine engine is by definition green energy, not as green as coal however.

Co2 greens the world. Ash from burning coal I understand is great fertiliser.

There is the belief that a one ten thousandth PPM change in the concentration of a trace atmosphere gas is changing the worlds climate for the worse but there is no evidence that this is so. The solution is to give the government and big corporations more of your money and they will cool the world for us.


Definitely off topic now. There are are threads for discussing that.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6726-quot-Global-Warming-quot

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

That is a position that I agree with. I think you would be hard pressed to say that NZ's hydro energy program has not ticked that box. I am old enough to remember the grizzling about cost overruns on the most recently commissioned of those, the Clyde dam project. No one seems to be complaining about the cost benefit equation on that today.

Moving on to wind turbines, I guess we won't know the answer until one of those established windfarms comes up for a long term upgrade. We can get a hint though, from what happened to New Zealand's oldest commercial wind turbine, installed in the hills above Brooklyn Wellington in 1993.

https://www.windenergy.org.nz/brooklyn-wind-turbine

After 23 years service it was replaced in 2016. However, according to that link, the original turbine was not scrapped.

"It was removed and delivered to its new owners Energy3, a supplier and installer of turbines for smaller commercial wind farms."

So that original turbine lives on, all the time bolstering the 'energy in' 'energy out' equation.



Definitely off topic now. There are are threads for discussing that.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6726-quot-Global-Warming-quot

SNOOPY

I guess the turbines can't be that great as the don't commercially exist without subsidy.

[Snoopy]

I guess the turbines can't be that great as the don't commercially exist without subsidy.


No windfarm subsidies in NZ that I am aware of. Unless you call the 'carbon price' a defacto subsidy.

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

No windfarm subsidies in NZ that I am aware of. Unless you call the 'carbon price' a defacto subsidy.

SNOOPY

Not, it's just a subsidy. Doesn't require any fancy name.

I'n America and Europe they can't nearly stand on their own two feet, requiring massive subsidy. Can't be different here.

[Snoopy]

Not, it's just a subsidy. Doesn't require any fancy name.

I'n America and Europe they can't nearly stand on their own two feet, requiring massive subsidy. Can't be different here.


Many countnies subsidise their farmers. We don't. Many countries subsidise their electricity production systems. We don't.

https://www.factcheck.org/2019/07/does-wind-work-without-subsidies/

"Does Wind ‘Work’ Without Subsidies?" (2019 article, about the USA)

"By some metrics, wind power is already competitive with fossil fuels without extra financial help. But other measures don’t reach the same conclusion — and projections vary about what will happen to the industry when its biggest subsidy goes away."

"The primary federal subsidy for wind is a tax credit known as the production tax credit, or PTC, which offers wind facilities and some other renewables a small tax credit for every kilowatt hour of energy produced over a farm’s first decade."

"The credit, however, is already being phased out. After being worth a maximum of 2.3 cents per kWh for farms that broke ground in 2016, the credit value has fallen by 20 percentage points each year, and the PTC is scheduled to elapse entirely at the beginning of 2020."

"It should be noted that other forms of energy also receive subsidies. “Every energy technology we’ve had … has benefited quite substantially from the federal government,” said Jay Bartlett, a senior research associate at the independent nonprofit Resources for the Future."

"Natural gas and oil producers, for instance, receive tax preferences for exploration and development costs, and receive additional tax breaks related to extraction, among others."

"According to reports from the Department of Energy and the Congressional Research Service, fossil fuels have historically received more support than renewables"

SNOOPY

[Entrep]

Everything will turn out fine

14505

14506

[bull....]

powell speech to congress tomorow morning and jobs friday should make for an exciting week

[Aaron]

Everything will turn out fine

14505

14506

jpg number two is interesting. I appreciate it is the US but all the manufacturing going to china and asia really brought down the price of a lot of manufactured goods. Helped keep inflation low while pumping up asset prices.

I wonder if cheap foreign labour can keep things going or if we have entered a higher inflationary period, with interest rates further to rise. I guess we can only watch the CPI.

[bull....]

Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are ‘likely to be higher’ than previously anticipated
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/07/fed-chair-powell-says-interest-rates-are-likely-to-be-higher-than-previously-anticipated.html

ORR might be saying same soon :scared:

[winner69]

Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are ‘likely to be higher’ than previously anticipated
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/07/fed-chair-powell-says-interest-rates-are-likely-to-be-higher-than-previously-anticipated.html

ORR might be saying same soon :scared:

So Orr won’t be saying it’s picked and no more OCR hikes

[alokdhir]

When I logged in ...I expected to see above two posts ....wow ...how predictable !!!

Yes ...conditions and hype is forming to go down ....I said so when Hoop wrote "I am positive now " ....but in long term he was trying to convey that buy the upcoming dip ....as that maybe your last chance

So imo actionable brief is " Buy the upcoming dip " ....

Its moving towards short term higher rates and for longer but surely hard landing ( required to control inflation ) ...thus rates will drop also equally fast ...which is actually best outcome for stocks ...especially strong ones with cash positive balance sheets and very controlled debt ...

[winner69]

When I logged in ...I expected to see above two posts ....wow ...how predictable !!!

Yes ...conditions and hype is forming to go down ....I said so when Hoop wrote "I am positive now " ....but in long term he was trying to convey that buy the upcoming dip ....as that maybe your last chance

So imo actionable brief is " Buy the upcoming dip " ....

Its moving towards short term higher rates and for longer but surely hard landing ( required to control inflation ) ...thus rates will drop also equally fast ...which is actually best outcome for stocks ...especially strong ones with cash positive balance sheets and very controlled debt ...

Sorry we disappointed you alokdhir

But then again that was the response I predicted would come from you :)

[alokdhir]

Sorry we disappointed you alokdhir

But then again that was the response I predicted would come from you :)

U didnt disappoint me mate ...U validated me ...I was not sad ...I was happy to see your well informed " Impartial " posts ...:t_up:

[Onemootpoint]

Just prior to the meeting/ testimony I read somewhere (international) that the stock market has already baked in a 30 bp increase. Likely to be higher seems to interpreted as much higher based on the immediate reaction of the market.

[bull....]

US terminal rate moved much higher after speech

[alokdhir]

US terminal rate moved much higher after speech

Heard people saying 6 % or above ...maybe 6.5 % from 5.5% ...Many saying FED shud go 75bips in March meeting ...to really hurt economy and inflation expectations ....seems right thing to do ...but most likely wont be done ...CPI and jobs report before meeting may change all this talk ....lol

[bull....]

Heard people saying 6 % or above ...maybe 6.5 % from 5.5% ...Many saying FED shud go 75bips in March meeting ...to really hurt economy and inflation expectations ....seems right thing to do ...but most likely wont be done ...CPI and jobs report before meeting may change all this talk ....lol

market pricing 50 next meeting but all depends on jobs this week and cpi next , even powell say in speech all depends on this data for what he does next meeting

[bull....]

powell second day of testimony just finished he again say his decision most likely depend on payroll's this week and cpi next week and he changed from yesterday to say he not rule out 50 pt increase next meeting but depends on the data points mentioned.
so these 2 data days mean markets are going to have massive wild days probably

[alokdhir]

powell second day of testimony just finished he again say his decision most likely depend on payroll's this week and cpi next week and he changed from yesterday to say he not rule out 50 pt increase next meeting but depends on the data points mentioned.
so these 2 data days mean markets are going to have massive wild days probably

Here we go again buddy ...now the sentiment will swing to pessimistic side till we reach something solid which bad news also doesn't move ...maybe 3800 or lower but all will know when we get there ...when market will stop going down on bad news ...great market for traders ...yo yo yo yo ...up and down and up and down and then again ....Bull minting money ...now easily can add another 12 screens or rooms ...lol

[bull....]

Here we go again buddy ...now the sentiment will swing to pessimistic side till we reach something solid which bad news also doesn't move ...maybe 3800 or lower but all will know when we get there ...when market will stop going down on bad news ...great market for traders ...yo yo yo yo ...up and down and up and down and then again ....Bull minting money ...now easily can add another 12 screens or rooms ...lol

lol yep just need a AI/Algo to do my job so i can get some sleep

[alokdhir]

lol yep just need a AI/Algo to do my job so i can get some sleep

Easy to do ...consult w69 ...he is already an expert ...regularly uses AI for charting and finding sensational quotes ...:p

[SailorRob]

lol yep just need a AI/Algo to do my job so i can get some sleep

Impossible for anyone to build a program to match you.

No AI system can make money off any chart, anywhere, anytime.

[Baa_Baa]

Impossible for anyone to build a program to match you.

No AI system can make money off any chart, anywhere, anytime.

I think we realise you're having a dig at bull****, but it's common knowledge that there are computer systems that actively trade the markets (they don't need a chart, just the price data), commonly called bots, or algorithms, that intervene in buying or selling shares based on price action, in varying quantities (not manipulating [yeah right]), stacking the bid/ask, placing bluff trades, influencing market traders, positioning their owners for profitable buys and sells of trading instrument positions. It would be naive to think that 'market' sentiment, especially the larger international markets, of all types, equities, currency, commodities, future, options .. etc, are not under the influence of very successful computers. Just wait till AI takes a hold, if it isn't already.

[SailorRob]

I think we realise you're having a dig at bull****, but it's common knowledge that there are computer systems that actively trade the markets (they don't need a chart, just the price data), commonly called bots, or algorithms, that intervene in buying or selling shares based on price action, in varying quantities (not manipulating [yeah right]), stacking the bid/ask, placing bluff trades, influencing market traders, positioning their owners for profitable buys and sells of trading instrument positions. It would be naive to think that 'market' sentiment, especially the larger international markets, of all types, equities, currency, commodities, future, options .. etc, are not under the influence of very successful computers. Just wait till AI takes a hold, if it isn't already.


Everything you said correct except for the 'very successful' part.

These computers cannot beat a S&P500 index fund or 'the market' or funds that are totally run by them would be posting great records and attracting all the capital.

But yes I know what you mean, I read a whole book on high frequency trading, pretty awesome book too Michael Lewis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys

[Baa_Baa]

Everything you said correct except for the 'very successful' part.

These computers cannot beat a S&P500 index fund or 'the market' or funds that are totally run by them would be posting great records and attracting all the capital.

But yes I know what you mean, I read a whole book on high frequency trading, pretty awesome book too Michael Lewis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys

Ok, maybe not 'very successful' against your criteria for success, but they still do it, I wouldn't know whether they're 'very successful' or not, but they still do it, so I assume they're more successful than not.

We're talking big money who move many millions every day, across all markets and instruments. They wouldn't keep doing it if it wasn't working for them, in aggregate. Point is, they do it, computers actively trade the markets, in real time, that a real person has next to no chance of reacting to, let alone beating. The bull****'s of this world skim off tiny profits or losses on the side, if it works for them, well good luck.

Life as a trader has become a great deal more complex and difficult to succeed at over the past decade or two, I gave it up (options trading) when I realised the competition wasn't human anymore. Doesn't matter how many screens you have ;) Or hours in the day to actively monitor trade/market movements. Making a buck doing this is, well, pretty difficult, particularly if you have a computer against you.

Makes you wonder whether real people actually make any of the big money trading decisions anymore, other than us public folks who try to buy at the right time, make a bob, and sell at the right time. I'm talking about trading here, not my long term hold portfolio.

We're competing against machines already, that should give the professional traders like bull**** pause for thought, can they beat the machine? Yeah possibly if they're trading something that the machine isn't interest in. Especially when AI gets involved, which is already well proven to be able to absorb infinite data, continuously, and spew out 'decisions' about whether to buy or sell at that moment in time, or not.

Personally, I think the successful life of a flesh and blood market trader is limited, and becoming more and more compromised by the machines, whereas good sound FA analysis and decisions and some basic insights into whether an instrument is under or over valued by the market, are essential for medium to longer terms investment decisions.

Traders can have it to themselves, it's of no real interest to me anymore, expect for the tools that help with timing the buy or sell.

[bull....]

Everything you said correct except for the 'very successful' part.

These computers cannot beat a S&P500 index fund or 'the market' or funds that are totally run by them would be posting great records and attracting all the capital.

But yes I know what you mean, I read a whole book on high frequency trading, pretty awesome book too Michael Lewis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Boys

actually jim symonds was probably better than buffett and he was a trader. in his short time as a trader before retiring he made many times more money than buffet did over a comparable period and we know buffet did better than the index
was done with machine's to the pioneer in ai trading

[SailorRob]

Ok, maybe not 'very successful' against your criteria for success, but they still do it, I wouldn't know whether they're 'very successful' or not, but they still do it, so I assume they're more successful than not.

We're talking big money who move many millions every day, across all markets and instruments. They wouldn't keep doing it if it wasn't working for them, in aggregate. Point is, they do it, computers actively trade the markets, in real time, that a real person has next to no chance of reacting to, let alone beating. The bull****'s of this world skim off tiny profits or losses on the side, if it works for them, well good luck.

Life as a trader has become a great deal more complex and difficult to succeed at over the past decade or two, I gave it up (options trading) when I realised the competition wasn't human anymore. Doesn't matter how many screens you have ;) Or hours in the day to actively monitor trade/market movements. Making a buck doing this is, well, pretty difficult, particularly if you have a computer against you.

Makes you wonder whether real people actually make any of the big money trading decisions anymore, other than us public folks who try to buy at the right time, make a bob, and sell at the right time. I'm talking about trading here, not my long term hold portfolio.

We're competing against machines already, that should give the professional traders like bull**** pause for thought, can they beat the machine? Yeah possibly if they're trading something that the machine isn't interest in. Especially when AI gets involved, which is already well proven to be able to absorb infinite data, continuously, and spew out 'decisions' about whether to buy or sell at that moment in time, or not.

Personally, I think the successful life of a flesh and blood market trader is limited, and becoming more and more compromised by the machines, whereas good sound FA analysis and decisions and some basic insights into whether an instrument is under or over valued by the market, are essential for medium to longer terms investment decisions.

Traders can have it to themselves, it's of no real interest to me anymore, expect for the tools that help with timing the buy or sell.

Good Post, agree with it all, except we're not talking many millions, it's hundreds of billions (literally).

Then there is the dark pools that nobody outside can even see.

That book I read, the big banks were paying millions to have their servers located closer to where the cable exit was within a data centre, so they would have a fraction of a microsecond advantage over the competition.

It is a massive advantage to us though to have tens of thousands of people out there who believe they can make money off any chart anywhere at any time, as then their eyes off the ball and those of us that are concerned with what's happening on the field are better off.

No computer out there is studying the particular advantage of OCA's liabilities over a conventional capital structure I can tell you that.

[bull....]

market very nervous heading into big friday data

not helped by some banks in US in big trouble liquidity wise .... ill be watching real estate issue's ahead to for big trouble in some banks

have to remember in all history fed goes to something breaks

[SailorRob]

actually jim symonds was probably better than buffett and he was a trader. in his short time as a trader before retiring he made many times more money than buffet did over a comparable period and we know buffet did better than the index
was done with machine's to the pioneer in ai trading


Correct, Buffett acknowledges him as well, but no way he could do anything with a trillion dollars worth of assets. Not scalable and who knows the actual risks. Always going to have some pull it off.

[bull....]

Correct, Buffett acknowledges him as well, but no way he could do anything with a trillion dollars worth of assets. Not scalable and who knows the actual risks. Always going to have some pull it off.


yep the larger the sum of money you have the harder it is to make money short term. maybe why symonds retired ? buffet is the greatest long term investor without doubt

[nztx]

Lots of red out there for Friday so far .. what's going on ?

How many days is that .. is that thing beginning with R upon us ?

[Onemootpoint]

Lots of red out there for Friday so far .. what's going on ?

How many days is that .. is that thing beginning with R upon us ?

S&P dropped like stone. Banks taking the hit.

[bull....]

if your good at trading and young

9 March 2023
Graduate traders are earning salaries of as much as $400,000 straight out of school this is in Australia

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-09/how-much-do-traders-earn-in-australia-some-new-graduates-get-400-000?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&sref=6uww027M


check out the size and quantity of screens those young fella's sitting behind in the photo of big market making firm looks like 12 screens to me lol

[nztx]

Some pretty loud banging & clattering going on out there mid afternoon ..

I thought it was the thunderstorm that rolled through, then looked further at NZX
where all the rolling clattering and dipping was happening .. don't look too happy out there
now with large amounts of Recessionary Red engulfing things :)

Might be some juicy pickings some time soon if this continues ..

[SailorRob]

if your good at trading and young

9 March 2023
Graduate traders are earning salaries of as much as $400,000 straight out of school this is in Australia

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-09/how-much-do-traders-earn-in-australia-some-new-graduates-get-400-000?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&sref=6uww027M


check out the size and quantity of screens those young fella's sitting behind in the photo of big market making firm looks like 12 screens to me lol


If you were to look online I am sure you could find images of people mutilating their own genitals. The fact you can find a image of this online does not then justify it as advantageous or sensible behavior.

Now were you to know that the kids sitting behind those 12 screens were successfully generating returns bettering the major global indexes without using undue leverage and/or taking significantly more risk, and doing this over and beyond a full market cycle AND the 12 screens were integral to this performance, then perhaps you could use this to justify your own stupidity. But that alone would not mean that you were able to utilise the screens as they do. If you use Tigers brand of clubs, it doesn't mean you are going to perform as well.

[Baa_Baa]

They have 4 screens, just very large ones in portrait mode. If you get a chance, try to visit a trading floor, it's fascinating to watch.

[SailorRob]

This is when you make all of your money folks. Just doesn't feel like it at the time.

Most will be in fetal position clutching bits of plastic with pictures of native birds on them. Don't worry the two fat controllers will see you right if you clutch the plastic for long.

[bull....]

not a 2008 lehman moment. different type bank , different securities held by the bank. might end up with some businesses failing going forward as there insurance only covers 250k.

makes nz a joke as we have no insurance scheme for bank failures.

[SailorRob]

not a 2008 lehman moment. different type bank , different securities held by the bank. might end up with some businesses failing going forward as there insurance only covers 250k.

makes nz a joke as we have no insurance scheme for bank failures.


Umm why should we have?

Insurance is a joke.

[bull....]

Umm why should we have?

Insurance is a joke.

until you need it

anyway with the bank collapse caused by rising rates one might start wondering if something similar could happen here ?
NZ is so dependant on property what would happen if property fell another 20% ?
or people start moving there money out of banks as in the US where parking it in 2yr treasuries is better than a term deposit and this then causing liquidity issues for banks and then you might understand why ORR is calling on the banks to raise deposit rates
i would imagine something would break somewhere
if it indeed did happen wouldnt insurance be good

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mary-holm-no-sheltering-from-this-market-downturn/PBVCEHAYZNAEHHG4ALLLIJ7OZM/

This is a good advice for all smarties out here ....no pun intended please :p

[SailorRob]

until you need it

anyway with the bank collapse caused by rising rates one might start wondering if something similar could happen here ?
NZ is so dependant on property what would happen if property fell another 20% ?
or people start moving there money out of banks as in the US where parking it in 2yr treasuries is better than a term deposit and this then causing liquidity issues for banks and then you might understand why ORR is calling on the banks to raise deposit rates
i would imagine something would break somewhere
if it indeed did happen wouldnt insurance be good


Good for reducing volatility but when in aggregate the insured get around 60c on the dollar of money back, it's just a tax on the economically illiterate.

Yes I agree the NZ banking system is a house of cards, but who in their right mind would deposit money with a NZ Bank? What are they thinking? Look at ANZ balance sheet for gods sake, levered 17 x last time I looked. Look at the assets... Have a few Months living expenses by all means but to think people term deposit significant portions of their savings and at deeply negative real rates?

The bank collapse in the US is just a confidence issue, there isn't a fundamental issue with the bank.

What happened was their deposit base rocketed up from 60 billion in 2019 to nearly 200 billion in 2021 - lots of people put money with the bank - the bank could not lend it out fast enough, so put it into longer dated treasuries at some of the lowest rates in 5000 years. As rates rose, the bank had to pay higher rates to depositors but the loan book was locked in at lower rates. The depositors were silicone valley types and they needed the cash back so they had to start selling the bonds and had to post mark to market losses. So essentially a asset liability mismatch - but the loan book is rock solid. The losses had already happened but people freaked when they had to post them. But if panic didn't set in there would be no issue - the loans were solid, just had a major profitability issue.

[SailorRob]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mary-holm-no-sheltering-from-this-market-downturn/PBVCEHAYZNAEHHG4ALLLIJ7OZM/

This is a good advice for all smarties out here ....no pun intended please :p


Mate, you have got no clue how many people on Sharetrader can time the markets with ease. Let's just say there are a lot.

Only none can come up with ANY evidence.

[alokdhir]

not a 2008 lehman moment. different type bank , different securities held by the bank. might end up with some businesses failing going forward as there insurance only covers 250k.

makes nz a joke as we have no insurance scheme for bank failures.

For me its market offering maybe last opportunity to get high quality companies or funds like KFL at very reasonable prices ...small / regular buying will eventually get u to bottom of this downtrend ....IMHO ...as thats what I will be doing ...

Bonds rallied as market flight to safety syndrome took over ...US2Year dropped massive 40 bips

Also this is US financial market specific but will sour sentiment especially in March ...unless CPI is a market friendly print ....we shud keep going down for another 2 weeks ....great opportunity ...again in imo only ...all can DYOR ....

[whatsup]

Steady on this is not a N Z banking situation.

SVB only had approx 80% of deposits covered by insurance , so it always doomed to fail with increasing interest rates, I see the fed today is trying to force down interest rates for the short term in order to decrease the pain !!!!

[bull....]

For me its market offering maybe last opportunity to get high quality companies or funds like KFL at very reasonable prices ...small / regular buying will eventually get u to bottom of this downtrend ....IMHO ...as thats what I will be doing ...

Bonds rallied as market flight to safety syndrome took over ...US2Year dropped massive 40 bips

Also this is US financial market specific but will sour sentiment especially in March ...unless CPI is a market friendly print ....we shud keep going down for another 2 weeks ....great opportunity ...again in imo only ...all can DYOR ....

your thinking short term on the market , i read on cnbc some fella say historically when you get big bank stock drawdown's after initial run down you get bounce but market declines are much lower there after. i guess he's meaning as they clear out the bank failure assets and debts ? that causes the decline ongoing
remeber this bank is very big coolapse historically

anyway market clos so im off have nice weekend everyone

[SailorRob]

Steady on this is not a N Z banking situation.

SVB only had approx 80% of deposits covered by insurance , so it always doomed to fail with increasing interest rates, I see the fed today is trying to force down interest rates for the short term in order to decrease the pain !!!!


Correct, NZ banks are far worse.

[Panda-NZ-]

Hiking the fed rate from 0% to 5% in one year is obviously going to cause issues (except for fed officials who believe their own spin).

There's time to deal with inflation, and plenty of alternatives instead of using 100 year old tools and ideas.

[alokdhir]

your thinking short term on the market , i read on cnbc some fella say historically when you get big bank stock drawdown's after initial run down you get bounce but market declines are much lower there after. i guess he's meaning as they clear out the bank failure assets and debts ? that causes the decline ongoing
remeber this bank is very big coolapse historically

anyway market clos so im off have nice weekend everyone

Actually I am not a trader but an investor ...so I am not looking to buy regularly on the way down to new bottom KFL for bounce but for long term keeps as I anticipate it to reach $ 2 in next 5 years ....safe growth in long term is my aim ...no one buys funds like KFL for technical bounces ...they are bought for income and growth over long term ...please check what it holds then U will have better idea what I was referring to ...

U too enjoy your weekend mate ...time away from 12 screens ...U deserve it !!!

[whatsup]

Correct, NZ banks are far worse.

You are technically correct except it does not apply to us in this situation.

It will be fascinating to watch what happens there this week and in the next few weeks/months

[beetills]

JPM,Citibank and Wells Fargo all up today.

[SailorRob]

You are technically correct except it does not apply to us in this situation.

It will be fascinating to watch what happens there this week and in the next few weeks/months

Watching exactly nothing won't be fascinating.

[Balance]

And many financial commentators along with some posters here were anguishing over potential bank failures in China & associated global financial contagion just about a year or so ago?

What happened?

[Balance]

And many financial commentators along with some posters here were anguishing over potential bank failures in China & associated global financial contagion just about a year or so ago?

What happened?

Looks like the US and the West have blown themselves into a banking crisis again?

Hard to blame China surely ever again?

[beetills]

With the state controlled media in China you won't know if a bank fails or not.Can;t trust any figures that come from China.

[Balance]

With the state controlled media in China you won't know if a bank fails or not.Can;t trust any figures that come from China.

Standard Western BS - China looks after its own because of its massive savings, as opposed to Western debt.

China’s economy rides on a cushion of real savings.

How many times in the last 30 years (since 1989) have the West predicted the impending collapse of the China banking system?

The point I am making is that investors need to focus on where the real crisis is likely to come from, not be sidetracked by BS.

[troyvdh]

Balance ..with all due respect ....How on earth can you trust any information that comes from China...Its a dictatorship ..and the bloke in charge just achieved another term.Have you heard about a bloke called Mao....What 80 million deaths.cheers.

[Balance]

Balance ..with all due respect ....How on earth can you trust any information that comes from China...It’s a dictatorship ..and the bloke in charge just achieved another term.Have you heard about a bloke called Mao....What 80 million deaths.cheers.


Iraq, Afghanistan, GFC, WOMD?

Cheers indeed!

[beetills]

Where is Jack Ma ?

[LEMON]

Silly fractional banking fiat ponzi, depositors are gonna get rinsed for all their savings and wealth

[SailorRob]

Standard Western BS - China looks after its own because of its massive savings, as opposed to Western debt.

China’s economy rides on a cushion of real savings.

How many times in the last 30 years (since 1989) have the West predicted the impending collapse of the China banking system?

The point I am making is that investors need to focus on where the real crisis is likely to come from, not be sidetracked by BS.

Oh man

One persons debt is another persons savings.

Please report back with general levels of leverage in the Chinese system vs the west.

Thanks.

[LEMON]

Bail us out, bail us out they weep, debase the value of currency again make the everyday person's life harder, save our gambling fractional scam banks, they don't need to afford food, let them lose their jobs we need QE to flood the system, to save our scams, then we can pay each other big bonuses and the peasant people will pay through debasement and inflation

[Balance]

Oh man

One persons debt is another persons savings.

Please report back with general levels of leverage in the Chinese system vs the west.

Thanks.

Bugger all leverage vs the West, especially against countries like the US, UK & NZ.

What is it with you lot? American **** don’t stink?

[Bobdn]

Just catching up on the Silicon Valley bank thing. Is this something for a Black Monday? Does the affect on sentiment bleed into our market? According to this commentary, on Fox news, it's the bigest bank failure since 2008.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cl-ZawiAghE&t=545s

I always watch Wall Street Week. Sam Zell seems like a solid guy. I like his comments here. If I remember correctly he started to invest in gold for the first time last year. A reference to the Weimar Republic! - seems like something for a Black Monday. The US seems to take its reserve currency status for granted, as though it will continue forever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEDI5cKLbBY

[LEMON]

Just catching up on the Silicon Valley bank thing. Is this something for a Black Monday? Does the effect on sentiment bleed into our market? According to this commentary, on Fox news, it's the biggest bank failure since 2008.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cl-ZawiAghE&t=545s

I always watch Wall Street Week. Sam Zell seems like a solid guy. I like his comments here. If I remember correctly he started to invest in gold for the first time last year. A reference to the Weimar Republic! - seems like something for a Black Monday. The US seems to take its reserve currency status for granted, as though it will continue forever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEDI5cKLbBY

Might be might not be, but don't forget the media is paid by these big banks and corporations. They will push the narrative, lots of tasty cheap stocks for them, it's the end of the world for everyone, sell, whilst they greedily scoop up all the great cheap stocks/resources

[Balance]

Bail us out, bail us out they weep, debase the value of currency again make the everyday person's life harder, save our gambling fractional scam banks, they don't need to afford food, let them lose their jobs we need QE to flood the system, to save our scams, then we can pay each other big bonuses and the peasant people will pay through debasement and inflation

Well summarised.

[Nor]

Steady on this is not a N Z banking situation.

SVB only had approx 80% of deposits covered by insurance , so it always doomed to fail with increasing interest rates, I see the fed today is trying to force down interest rates for the short term in order to decrease the pain !!!!

I'm wondering to what extent NZ's deposit guarantee, if implemented, would prevent bank runs. A lot or hardly at all?

[justakiwi]

Sounds a lot like this place.


They will push the narrative, lots of tasty cheap stocks for them, it's the end of the world for everyone, sell, whilst they greedily scoop up all the great cheap stocks/resources

[Aaron]

I'm wondering to what extent NZ's deposit guarantee, if implemented, would prevent bank runs. A lot or hardly at all?

I would assume a lot. Insurance cover for $250,000 would help calm nerves. Under the current Open Bank Resolution my understanding is the banks can hold onto your money for as long as they need to get themselves out of trouble. I think you might even take a haircut if necessary. I think it does allow enough funds to be released to buy groceries.

Depositors are an unsecured creditor on the bank's Balance Sheet so why would you expect your money back in the event of a bank run.

Always got to be careful where you put your money.

Mind you if everyone wants their money back, banks need to call in security which means pressure on overleveraged companies and households. A spiral downwards that would be hard to stop without central bank intervention.

I am surprised the markets didn't go up on Friday. I am sure negative interest rates and ample liquidity will be provided by central banks quick smart and bad news is good news for a pivot. In which case money in the bank is not a good idea anyway (got gold). Currently they are taking 3-4% a year through inflation but I don't hear any complaints from anyone. Why would you worry about a 10-20% haircut. 5 years of the current environment would see a 20% decline in purchasing power all thing being equal.

[Nor]

I would assume a lot. Insurance cover for $250,000 would help calm nerves. Under the current Open Bank Resolution my understanding is the banks can hold onto your money for as long as they need to get themselves out of trouble. I think you might even take a haircut if necessary. I think it does allow enough funds to be released to buy groceries.

Depositors are an unsecured creditor on the bank's Balance Sheet so why would you expect your money back in the event of a bank run.

Always got to be careful where you put your money.

Mind you if everyone wants their money back, banks need to call in security which means pressure on overleveraged companies and households. A spiral downwards that would be hard to stop without central bank intervention.

I am surprised the markets didn't go up on Friday. I am sure negative interest rates and ample liquidity will be provided by central banks quick smart and bad news is good news for a pivot. In which case money in the bank is not a good idea anyway (got gold). Currently they are taking 3-4% a year through inflation but I don't hear any complaints from anyone. Why would you worry about a 10-20% haircut. 5 years of the current environment would see a 20% decline in purchasing power all thing being equal.

Gold? Where's the best place to hide it?

[Aaron]

Gold? Where's the best place to hide it?

Always a problem. Big hole in the back yard (who do you tell about it). Security deposit box? None in my town.

I don't actually own gold but speculate through gold producers but they also need capital so may fall worse than everything else.

I wouldn't panic but listen to Alokdhir he has been waiting for this moment for some time so must have a plan.

Personally I am trying to spread my cash so it is not all in one bank. Not sure if that will help. Get your timing right and you might get some cheap assets with cheap capital.

As Balance confirms Lemon has pointed out the most likely future. See below

[Nor]

Always a problem. Big hole in the back yard (who do you tell about it). Security deposit box? None in my town.

I don't actually own gold but speculate through gold producers but they also need capital so may fall worse than everything else.

I wouldn't panic but listen to Alokdhir he has been waiting for this moment for some time so must have a plan.

Personally I am trying to spread my cash so it is not all in one bank. Not sure if that will help. Get your timing right and you might get some cheap assets with cheap capital.

As Balance confirms Lemon has pointed out the most likely future. See below

Suppose one sells a super safe investment or cashes it in or whatever, say to buy a house, the money comes into one's bank account and just then the bank folds? Are there ways of protecting against this scenario?

[stoploss]

Suppose one sells a super safe investment or cashes it in or whatever, say to buy a house, the money comes into one's bank account and just then the bank folds? Are there ways of protecting against this scenario?
The old "don't put all your eggs in one basket comes to mind"
When the $ 100,000 insurance per account comes into force ,might be 2 years away ( but who knows this could hasten it ) accounts with multiple institutions
will make sense.
Might be a banking opportunity here , if one of the big 4 took an insurance policy and told all their account holders they were insured for $ 100,000 .
The cost can't be prohibitive , my share trading account @ Capital 19 in Sydeny that uses the IBKR platform , has automatic $ 500,000 insurance per account and over that they have a separate policy , if a sharebroker can do it surely a major bank can.

[BlackPeter]

Always a problem. Big hole in the back yard (who do you tell about it). Security deposit box? None in my town.

I don't actually own gold but speculate through gold producers but they also need capital so may fall worse than everything else.

I wouldn't panic but listen to Alokdhir he has been waiting for this moment for some time so must have a plan.

Personally I am trying to spread my cash so it is not all in one bank. Not sure if that will help. Get your timing right and you might get some cheap assets with cheap capital.

As Balance confirms Lemon has pointed out the most likely future. See below

Try Gold ETF's. Plenty of them around on the ASX (some are currency hedged) and most (probably all) other major Stock Exchanges (not sure about NZX). You can buy and sell them like shares, no need to dig a hole in the garden.

[ynot]

Suppose one sells a super safe investment or cashes it in or whatever, say to buy a house, the money comes into one's bank account and just then the bank folds? Are there ways of protecting against this scenario?

Quite nerve wracking. I was all cashed up house wise in 2009.
The banking industry of course tells us it different this time, nothing to worry about. They said that back in 09 also.

[ynot]

Try Gold ETF's. Plenty of them around on the ASX (some are currency hedged) and most (probably all) other major Stock Exchanges (not sure about NZX). You can buy and sell them like shares, no need to dig a hole in the garden.

If it were to ever hit the fan big time I'm not sure any ETF would be worth much.

[BlackPeter]

If it were to ever hit the fan big time I'm not sure any ETF would be worth much.

I would not have expected differently from you ...

For anybody else - they might just do their due diligence. Not all ETF's are the same.

However - if you love fear mongering ... here is news for you: Any investment might turn sour. Your matrass might burn down (with the money in it), your house (potentially your largest investment) might sit on the impact point of the next Chinese satellite crashing down and polluting it with radioactive substances (not insurable event) , any bank holding your cash can fail and if the next vulcano blows up under your NZ investment property it might be too late to check for your insurance cover - don't forget - insurances go pear shaped as well.

Better spend all your money right now - and enjoy the rest of your weekend ...

[Aaron]

Suppose one sells a super safe investment or cashes it in or whatever, say to buy a house, the money comes into one's bank account and just then the bank folds? Are there ways of protecting against this scenario?

First of all don't listen to anything I say. I have no idea, just a vague interest and time on my hands.

Second what is the super safe investment. I might be interested in troubled times like these.

Banks go under in the US. Is it a small bank that went under? If so, maybe not a big issue globally. NZ banks main security is the NZ housing market I believe.

Cash would have been good last year compared to most investments. Particularly c.f. house prices. Just make sure you don't panic and do something stupid like listen to me. If you are holding cash while you wait for house prices to bottom, it is quite possible this is a lot safer than burying gold in your back yard or buying a gold etf.

Who knows... I don't.

[ynot]

I would not have expected differently from you ...

For anybody else - they might just do their due diligence. Not all ETF's are the same.

However - if you love fear mongering ... here is news for you: Any investment might turn sour. Your matrass might burn down (with the money in it), your house (potentially your largest investment) might sit on the impact point of the next Chinese satellite crashing down and polluting it with radioactive substances (not insurable event) , any bank holding your cash can fail and if the next vulcano blows up under your NZ investment property it might be too late to check for your insurance cover - don't forget - insurances go pear shaped as well.

Better spend all your money right now - and enjoy the rest of your weekend ...
Do all the due diligence you want. I stand by my point.

[whatsup]

Gold? Where's the best place to hide it?

In your mouth !!

[GTM 3442]

Suppose one sells a super safe investment or cashes it in or whatever, say to buy a house, the money comes into one's bank account and just then the bank folds? Are there ways of protecting against this scenario?

As I understand it, bank deposit guarantee schemes have a defined limit or cap - you're insured up to the insured value and anything over is at risk. The Silicon Valley Bank is playing this out in the US scenario, which I think is similar to New Zealand's OBR.

From the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/10/faq-fdic-insurance/

"On Friday, a run on deposits led to the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, making it the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. The bank was shut down by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver.

The FDIC, in turn, created the Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara and announced that all insured depositors will have access to their insured funds no later than Monday.

“Uninsured depositors will receive a receivership certificate for the remaining amount of their uninsured funds,” the FDIC said in a statement.

The situation provides an opportunity to remind depositors how much of their money is protected by the federal government."

So I think that in your scenario you'd be b*ggered.

As for "protection" I suppose the only thing to do would be to spread your money across whatever number of banks it takes to make sure that all your money is insured.

[Aaron]

As I understand it, bank deposit guarantee schemes have a defined limit or cap - you're insured up to the insured value and anything over is at risk. The Silicon Valley Bank is playing this out in the US scenario, which I think is similar to New Zealand's OBR.

From the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/10/faq-fdic-insurance/

"On Friday, a run on deposits led to the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, making it the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. The bank was shut down by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver.

The FDIC, in turn, created the Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara and announced that all insured depositors will have access to their insured funds no later than Monday.

“Uninsured depositors will receive a receivership certificate for the remaining amount of their uninsured funds,” the FDIC said in a statement.

The situation provides an opportunity to remind depositors how much of their money is protected by the federal government."

So I think that in your scenario you'd be b*ggered.

As for "protection" I suppose the only thing to do would be to spread your money across whatever number of banks it takes to make sure that all your money is insured.

I do not think NZ has a deposit insurance scheme yet, although it has been discussed.

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-and-supervision/oversight-of-banks/standards-and-requirements-for-banks/open-bank-resolution

The OBM chart in the link says that the "unfrozen funds" are govt guaranteed but it also says

We will then do a high-level assessment of the bank’s losses and freeze a conservative portion of account balances.
The frozen funds are not cancelled or written off, and the depositors and creditors continue to hold a legal claim to these funds. To the extent that all or some of these funds remain available after all losses have been covered, they will be returned to depositors and creditors.

Shareholders to lose first then I used to think bondholders but now I am not sure, depositors might just get lumped alongside bondholders and in the case of covered bonds they are ranked below them. maybe unsecured depositors are ranked below bondholders, I am not sure.

If we are ever talking about using the OBM, then gold buried in your back yard would be a better bet. Lets hope the new home owners with big debts don't start losing their jobs we have invested a lot in them through the banks. Thanks to Adrian's FLP and at one point in time I think he loosened LVR restrictions as well, what a hero, with the courage to act.

[Aaron]

To be honest based on recent history shouldn't we expect the NZX to do well on Monday.

A least the power, property and retirement village operators.

A pivot and negative interest rates can't be too far away now.

[Balance]

US$300 billion US bank put under administration.

Some perspective:

US economy is 103 times the size of NZ economy.

So the US$300 billion is equivalent to a US$2.91 billion bank being put into administration.

That’s equivalent to a NZ$4.7 billion situation - the finance company sector collapse in NZ cost depositors & the government $7 billion.

So the bank failure is hardly going to hit the broader US economy and the financial system. Maybe similar or equivalent banks and financial institutions with heavy exposure to the venture capital and crypto scam industries.

No risk of contagion but don’t let the doomsayers dissuade you that it’s Lehman all over again.

Just as crypto is the new global currency system just 15 months ago, remember?

[Bobdn]

Is this the fastest interest rate rise in NZ's history? Apparently it's the fastest rise in US history. Much much faster than anything that happened in the 1970s.

I think I've got a bond (in one of my funds) that pays a 0.5 per cent coupon (lol, fancy) and matures in 2040? I'll have to check but it's years and years away. Must have seemed like a good idea at the time.

Anyway, that's some interest rate rise over the last year.

I was reading an article by Mary Holm on her website. Bonds have only gone down with shares twice over the last 100 years in NZ 1994 and 2022. Her website is full of great articles.

[winner69]

US$300 billion US bank put under administration.

Some perspective:

US economy is 103 times the size of NZ economy.

So the US$300 billion is equivalent to a US$2.91 billion bank being put into administration.

That’s equivalent to a NZ$4.7 billion situation - the finance company sector collapse in NZ cost depositors & the government $7 billion.

So the bank failure is hardly going to hit the broader US economy and the financial system. Maybe similar or equivalent banks and financial institutions with heavy exposure to the venture capital and crypto scam industries.

No risk of contagion but don’t let the doomsayers dissuade you that it’s Lehman all over again.

Just as crypto is the new global currency system just 15 months ago, remember?

Rocket Lab got $38m in SVL

But have $450m with other banks

[Nor]

First of all don't lis seeten to anything I say. I have no idea, just a vague interest and time on my hands.

Second what is the super safe investment. I might be interested in troubled times like these.

Banks go under in the US. Is it a small bank that went under? If so, maybe not a big issue globally. NZ banks main security is the NZ housing market I believe.

Cash would have been good last year compared to most investments. Particularly c.f. house prices. Just make sure you don't panic and do something stupid like listen to me. If you are holding cash while you wait for house prices to bottom, it is quite possible this is a lot safer than burying gold in your back yard or buying a gold etf.

Who knows... I don't.

Kiwi Bonds I would call super safe, but probably the half million cap would be to low for some.
I was thinking there should be a way whereby one could park money at a bank or similar, just to be held but not lent out, for a fee of course. But other than by holding actual cash would it be possible?

[alokdhir]

If people so worried about keeping Bank deposits then investment in art is an option ...but will need security and insurance too in such lawless and climate emergency times ....

Jokes apart ...investment in cash positive low debt quality companies like MFT / IFT etc or KFL if u need regular income is great way to tide over this difficult time ...only access day to day money rest stays invested ...maybe get lucky in 6-18 months with nice capital appreciation ...till then dont watch ticker or CNBC ...lol

It's too small a trouble for FED to even think twice before going 50 bips next meeting ....imo

But this can give market excuse to capitulate ...reading above posts strengthen that option ...but now a days people are too smart ...not easy to scare to sell MFT @ $ 25 !!!!

[SailorRob]

Don't mess about with any of that crap. Just put your entire net worth into Berkshire Hathaway, leverage it up a little and relax.

Or do what everyone considers rational, borrow 800% of your net worth and invest in an entity trading at 30 times revenue, a house in NZ.

[Rawz]

Don’t know what the fuss today is all about. The NZ banks are fine… govt provides an implicit guarantee- just look at the GFC when the finance companies got into trouble. Govt guarantee put in for 2 or 3 years.

Capital ratios for the banks are double what they were back then too. So even stronger. Aus/nz banks actually in the top quartile in the world! Safe as.

Sure property prices are going down and that’s not good for security but as long as the punters can pay the mortgage it’s all good. Unemployment rate stubbornly low..

If you are really worried by a farm and have some debt.. no cash.

[ynot]

Don't mess about with any of that crap. Just put your entire net worth into Berkshire Hathaway, leverage it up a little and relax.

Or do what everyone considers rational, borrow 800% of your net worth and invest in an entity trading at 30 times revenue, a house in NZ.
What could possibly go wrong. Real estate NZ black monday may be on the way to a town near you.

[SailorRob]

Don’t know what the fuss today is all about. The NZ banks are fine… govt provides an implicit guarantee- just look at the GFC when the finance companies got into trouble. Govt guarantee put in for 2 or 3 years.

Capital ratios for the banks are double what they were back then too. So even stronger. Aus/nz banks actually in the top quartile in the world! Safe as.

Sure property prices are going down and that’s not good for security but as long as the punters can pay the mortgage it’s all good. Unemployment rate stubbornly low..

If you are really worried by a farm and have some debt.. no cash.

Yep, plus the rats cannot leave the banking system in aggregate really, unless you withdraw cash. Anything you buy, your money just becomes a deposit in the persons account that sold you whatever it was.

[mike2020]

The last time I read so much of this gold and TD talk Beagle was opening accounts in AUS, I think it was at the start of covid or some similar event just prior. I think I agree with Alko, can only be a good sign.

Also, what good is actual gold? If things are entirely pear shaped what use it is? I can see the logic if it is an investment thing but it is entirely worthless like bitcoin. Go any buy some pumpkins or kumera at least you know for sure they will be worth more in a few weeks or months if you store them right.

Better living

[ynot]

The last time I read so much of this gold and TD talk Beagle was opening accounts in AUS, I think it was at the start of covid or some similar event just prior. I think I agree with Alko, can only be a good sign.

Also, what good is actual gold? If things are entirely pear shaped what use it is? I can see the logic if it is an investment thing but it is entirely worthless like bitcoin. Go any buy some pumpkins or kumera at least you know for sure they will be worth more in a few weeks or months if you store them right.

Better living
Don't agree Mike. I would suggest gold is the only true stable currency. It has been so for ages. Unlike Bitcoin.

[Aaron]

Kiwi Bonds I would call super safe, but probably the half million cap would be to low for some.
I was thinking there should be a way whereby one could park money at a bank or similar, just to be held but not lent out, for a fee of course. But other than by holding actual cash would it be possible?

The $500k cap is not a problem for me. But if it was super safe why wouldn't you stay in Kiwibonds (currently 4.25%). I would guess if financial markets seize up then there would not be much of a secondary market to sell your bonds to make cash available, but if everything was turning to custard interest rates would be dropping and your kiwibond would become more valuable. Adrian can always print more money to roll them over when they mature. I will have to stop now as I do not really know what I am talking about.

Regarding me and gold, it is just a faith based speculation, central banks hold it and treat it as currency (that is why it is exempt from GST). It is the only currency that didn't double in quantity (for this reason, in theory it should become more valuable when compared with other currencies) over the pandemic panic. I am pumping it as I am speculating on gold producers and currently have some losses which might not be so bad after today. If Powell drops interest rates tomorrow I might even be in the green.

If I was really worried perhaps I should take my own advice. Whether 12months 2yrs or 4yrs it is all 4.25%. The next step I guess is to find out when the next lot goes out and if there is a secondary market for them.

[mike2020]

I thought we were assuming there is no longer anything stable and we are back to loo paper is the new gold. It seems to be the mood. Whenever I see talk of putting gold in your backyard I get this Mad Max image in my mind.

[BlackPeter]

...

Also, what good is actual gold? If things are entirely pear shaped what use it is? I can see the logic if it is an investment thing but it is entirely worthless like bitcoin. Go any buy some pumpkins or kumera at least you know for sure they will be worth more in a few weeks or months if you store them right.

Better living

Probably not the right thread to discuss the rational behind humans fascination of gold. Fact is however that it was considered valuable in any human civilization (and it kept or increased its value in any crisis) - over the last thousands of years. Apply this test to cryptocurrency - LOL.

Humans do plenty of stupid things, and though I don't know whether their attraction to gold is one of them, it would be still more stupid to ignore this human trait in a time of crisis.

From a practical perspective: Gold is rare and people can't make more of it (securing its value), it is durable and not dependent on any working infrastructure, it does not take a lot of space and it is easy to transport (test your pumpkin or kumara against these criteria) - attractive for people who need to break up their tents and move and still want to take their wealth with them.

[percy]

New York
CNN
—
Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse last week sent tingles of panic down investors’ spines as it highlighted a larger problem across the banking sector: The widening gap between the value large lenders place on the bonds they hold and what they’re actually worth on the market.

SVB’s downfall was tied, in part, to the plunge in the value of bonds it acquired during boom times, when it had a lot of customer deposits coming in and needed somewhere to park the cash.

But SVB isn’t the only institution with that issue. US banks were sitting on $620 billion in unrealized losses (assets that have decreased in price but haven’t been sold yet) at the end of 2022, according to the FDIC.

What’s happening: Back when interest rates were near zero, US banks scooped up lots of Treasuries and bonds. Now, as the Federal Reserve hikes rates to fight inflation, those bonds have declined in value.

When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds start paying higher rates to investors, which makes the older bonds with lower rates less attractive and less valuable.

The result is that most banks have some amount of unrealized losses on their books.

[bull....]

US treasury secretary rules out federal bailout for collapsed Silicon Valley Bank

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300828416/us-treasury-secretary-rules-out-federal-bailout-for-collapsed-silicon-valley-bank

so have to hope someone buy's it
also watch for the risk of contagion this week if nothing happen's to solve SVB might get big run's on other institution's
2008 again ?

[ynot]

US treasury secretary rules out federal bailout for collapsed Silicon Valley Bank

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300828416/us-treasury-secretary-rules-out-federal-bailout-for-collapsed-silicon-valley-bank

so have to hope someone buy's it
also watch for the risk of contagion this week if nothing happen's to solve SVB might get big run's on other institution's
2008 again ?

Definitely a possibility. SVB's situation is not unique.
If customers lined up tomorrow at any other major US bank looking to withdraw the same scenario would apply.

[winner69]

Definitely a possibility. SVB's situation is not unique.
If customers lined up tomorrow at any other major US bank looking to withdraw the same scenario would apply.

Queue of 4 at Westpac ATM Cuba St just now ….hmmm

[ynot]

Queue of 4 at Westpac ATM Cuba St just now ….hmmm
Metservice have live weather cams. Investors need live bank ATM cams.

[percy]

Why Silicon Valley Bank Died (UPDATED)...

https://livewiremarketsptyltd.cmail20.com/t/j-l-ejyilyd-ydtteyktj-j/

[mike2020]

Metservice have live weather cams. Investors need live bank ATM cams.

I thought there were a few Russians providing the service?

[whatsup]

Very orderly opening in N Z but down 56 points ( so far ) !!

[whatsup]

New York
CNN
—
Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse last week sent tingles of panic down investors’ spines as it highlighted a larger problem across the banking sector: The widening gap between the value large lenders place on the bonds they hold and what they’re actually worth on the market.

SVB’s downfall was tied, in part, to the plunge in the value of bonds it acquired during boom times, when it had a lot of customer deposits coming in and needed somewhere to park the cash.

But SVB isn’t the only institution with that issue. US banks were sitting on $620 billion in unrealized losses (assets that have decreased in price but haven’t been sold yet) at the end of 2022, according to the FDIC.

What’s happening: Back when interest rates were near zero, US banks scooped up lots of Treasuries and bonds. Now, as the Federal Reserve hikes rates to fight inflation, those bonds have declined in value.

When interest rates rise, newly issued bonds start paying higher rates to investors, which makes the older bonds with lower rates less attractive and less valuable.

The result is that most banks have some amount of unrealized losses on their books.

P, IMO The only way that this could have been avoided is during the world shut down causing extremely low interest rates was to refuse to take depositors money, but who would ever do that daft stand.

[whatsup]

Very orderly opening in N Z but down 56 points ( so far ) !!

Down 91 points atm

[Onemootpoint]

Very orderly opening in N Z but down 56 points ( so far ) !!

Rumour has it we only really open at 12.00….along with the ASX :p

[percy]

P, IMO The only way that this could have been avoided is during the world shut down causing extremely low interest rates was to refuse to take depositors money, but who would ever do that daft stand.

I agree.
Same thing happened here when finance companies had so much money pouring in they had to find big borrowers.
Those big borrowers were property developers.
Result ..... disaster...

Lovely story of the poor guy who ran a finance company in ChCh.
Money pouring in.
Only a few people coming in to borrow a thousand or so.
Then he was over the moon when I guy walked in and wanted to borrow $2mil [on then Whaler's Inn ,Picton].
Welcomed with open arms...
No need to tell you the end result was ......You guessed....disaster.

[whatsup]

Down 91 points atm

down 134 point atm.

[whatsup]

I agree.
Same thing happened here when finance companies had so much money pouring in they had to find big borrowers.
Those big borrowers were property developers.
Result ..... disaster...

Lovely story of the poor guy who ran a finance company in ChCh.
Money pouring in.
Only a few people coming in to borrow a thousand or so.
Then he was over the moon when I guy walked in and wanted to borrow $2mil [on then Whaler's Inn ,Picton].
Welcomed with open arms...
No need to tell you the end result was ......You guessed....disaster.

Has there ever been a time when finance organisations have refused depositors funds ?

[percy]

Has there ever been a time when finance organisations have refused depositors funds ?

I very much doubt it.

[BlackPeter]

Why Silicon Valley Bank Died (UPDATED)...

https://livewiremarketsptyltd.cmail20.com/t/j-l-ejyilyd-ydtteyktj-j/

Interesting read. Cheers for posting.

[stoploss]

Has there ever been a time when finance organisations have refused depositors funds ?

They just made rates negative so they looked for somewhere else to put it ( Crypto etc .... )

[LEMON]

looks like the FEDs bailing out the banks with FDIC

[Davexl]

20m ago

The latest efforts to quell investors’ SVB concerns won’t be reflected in most Asian equity futures markets, as many stopped trading before the announcements. Futures are broadly pointing to steep declines throughout the region, although futures in Australia just flipped to gains and New Zealand shares pared some of their earlier losses.

Jackie EdwardsStocks Editor, Sydney
(https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ARBOgwBc2RI/jackie-edwards)

5 min ago

Some reaction here from the chief North America economist at Capital Economics, Paul Ashworth, who said the Fed, Treasury and the FDIC have laid out a “fire break” for the banking system:

The authorities “have acted aggressively to prevent a contagion developing.


“Rationally, this should be enough to stop any contagion from spreading and taking down more banks, which can happen in the blink of an eye in the digital age. But contagion has always been more about irrational fear, so we would stress that there is no guarantee this will work.”


Adam HaighFinance Editor
(https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AOp9QONQAko/adam-haigh)

[Sideshow Bob]

Early days but ASX only down 0.24%

NZX still down 1.04%.

[nztx]

How many other shaky banks in the US, on top of hiked interest rates could be the real question :)

in fact apply that globally

how are the Chinese banks that were previously lumbered with overheated real estate exposure fairing now ?

Similar exposure risks may apply to many Western banks now to a degree on retreating property sectors
and with hiked interest rates thrown at them, reeling in earlier Covid excesses ..

Mere sniff of a warning can turn into a retreating spiral, as has been seen with earlier downturns
until confidence returns..

[nztx]

Interesting comment seen elsewhere:



Now we have a new problem... if the Silicon valley bank is a "Lehman moment" (https://www.investopedia.com/lehman-moment-6752348) and triggers another great recession... then this could increase the risk of a bank run on other banks (who also invested in low interest rate bonds) and possibly bankrupt companies who deposit their funds there, etc etc the domino effect may in turn crash the stock market as we saw in 2008.


and this from - GR Decter CFA -



Only 2.7% of SVB are less than US $250K

Meaning 97.3% aren't FDIC insured

[BlackPeter]

How many other shaky banks in the US, on top of hiked interest rates could be the real question :)

in fact apply that globally

how are the Chinese banks that were previously lumbered with overheated real estate exposure fairing now ?

Similar exposure risks may apply to many Western banks now to a degree on retreating property sectors
and with hiked interest rates thrown at them, reeling in earlier Covid excesses ..

Mere sniff of a warning can turn into a retreating spiral, as has been seen with earlier downturns
until confidence returns..

Never seen such a worried hawk. But might be a good thing. The big crashes happen if nobody is worried, so keep going.

Predict a catastrophe every other month and some day you will be right. Sh*t happens, but not sure it will work out this time.

It appears the SVB used some of Trumps softeners to "deregulate" the banking market ... on top- of some other unusual banking practises (like risk concentration instead of risk diversification) ... I doubt that there are that many other idiots in charge of the banking sector in the US and I assume that a somewhat saner government these days will act now pretty quickly to remove Trumps softeners.

But hey, who knows. Sky might fall as well - did you consider that?

[nztx]

Never seen such a worried hawk. But might be a good thing. The big crashes happen if nobody is worried, so keep going.

Predict a catastrophe every other month and some day you will be right. Sh*t happens, but not sure it will work out this time.

It appears the SVB used some of Trumps softeners to "deregulate" the banking market ... on top- of some other unusual banking practises (like risk concentration instead of risk diversification) ... I doubt that there are that many other idiots in charge of the banking sector in the US and I assume that a somewhat saner government these days will act now pretty quickly to remove Trumps softeners.

But hey, who knows. Sky might fall as well - did you consider that?


Unworried Hawk flying at higher altitude above this - BP :)

My exposures were adjusted long ago while some were busy sucking in slices of the local
rest homes sector at loftier levels ..

[Balance]

US government steps in to ensure depositors can withdraw their cash from Monday (US time) :

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regulators-unveil-plan-to-stem-damage-from-svb-collapse.html

[bull....]

Second US bank fails after Silicon Valley collapse

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300828416/second-us-bank-fails-after-silicon-valley-collapse

deposit's being covered

[nztx]

Second US bank fails after Silicon Valley collapse

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300828416/second-us-bank-fails-after-silicon-valley-collapse

deposit's being covered

Jeez Joe - better get the other side onboard to retrospectively approve a new monetary ceiling, with the way
these things are sneezing coughing and falling over .. this could blow the bank :)

Wonder if the Bank of China have some readies they could throw in to help ?

[Balance]

Venture capital & crypto exposure - what a surprise!

More to come, especially with crypto.

And not before time.

[nztx]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300828185/rocket-lab-has-us38-million-in-collapsed-us-bank

Rocket Lab has US$38 million in collapsed US bank

Just as well Uncle Sam saved the day ..

[LEMON]

Venture capital & crypto exposure - what a surprise!

More to come, especially with crypto.

And not before time.

Sure the narrative will be to blame crypto, anyone who understood bitcoin already told you crypto was a VC scam, what the media narrative won't tell you is that this is a centralized fiat currency debt spiral, and with no way to fix the broken system, FED is no longer in control, it's not a "crypto" token bank, it's a fiat fractional bank

Either way crypto and fiat is a Ponzi

[winner69]

Avatar wins an OSCAR

Should keep bank collapses from headlining TV news tonight ……that’ll piss Katie off

[Lola]

Sure the narrative will be to blame crypto, anyone who understood bitcoin already told you crypto was a VC scam, what the media narrative won't tell you is that this is a centralized fiat currency debt spiral, and with no way to fix the broken system, FED is no longer in control, it's not a "crypto" token bank, it's a fiat fractional bank

Either way crypto and fiat is a Ponzi

And so too is the Carbon Credit market!!

[Balance]

Sure the narrative will be to blame crypto, anyone who understood bitcoin already told you crypto was a VC scam, what the media narrative won't tell you is that this is a centralized fiat currency debt spiral, and with no way to fix the broken system, FED is no longer in control, it's not a "crypto" token bank, it's a fiat fractional bank

Either way crypto and fiat is a Ponzi

China and most Asian countries banned crypto while the US & the West (like NZ) happily let their citizens be scammed.

Accident waiting to happen and it is happening.

[LEMON]

Goldman's saying they don't expect a rate hike on the 22nd, FED lost control

QE

[LEMON]

China and most Asian countries banned crypto while the US & the West (like NZ) happily let their citizens be scammed.

Accident waiting to happen and it is happening.

Good cryptos is a scam

Understand bitcoin, the information is out
there

[Rawz]

China and most Asian countries banned crypto while the US & the West (like NZ) happily let their citizens be scammed.

Accident waiting to happen and it is happening.

China banned it because it was sucking too much power from the grid!

[LEMON]

China banned it because it was sucking too much power from the grid!

China's opening back up to "crypto" - Bitcoin, look at their plans with hong kong being the "crypto" hub, the banning is old news

[Balance]

Sure the narrative will be to blame crypto, anyone who understood bitcoin already told you crypto was a VC scam, what the media narrative won't tell you is that this is a centralized fiat currency debt spiral, and with no way to fix the broken system, FED is no longer in control, it's not a "crypto" token bank, it's a fiat fractional bank

Either way crypto and fiat is a Ponzi

China and most Asian countries banned crypto while the US & the West (like NZ) happily let their citizens be scammed.

Accident waiting to happen and it is happening.

[Balance]

China's opening back up to "crypto" - Bitcoin, look at their plans with hong kong being the "crypto" hub, the banning is old news

Garbage.

China is launching a digital currency. It’s old news.

[LEMON]

Garbage.

China is launching a digital currency. It’s old news.

They have their cbdc, yet they are looking to use hong kong as a crypto hub

[LEMON]

Garbage.

China is launching a digital currency. It’s old news.

Who cares anyway, we both agree, crypto is a scam, and bitcoin is hard to understand I get it, if you don't understand bitcoin don't buy it simply, yet we should all at least own something of the equivalent, debasement is going to be rough, gold, silver, property, energy sector, food resources

[Balance]

They have their cbdc, yet they are looking to use hong kong as a crypto hub

Hong Kong as a crypto hub … under a communist regime? Now that’s a good one!

[nztx]

It's almost official....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131458989/all-five-major-banks-now-forecasting-economy-shrank-in-december-quarter

All five major banks now forecasting economy shrank in December quarter

[winner69]

It's almost official....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131458989/all-five-major-banks-now-forecasting-economy-shrank-in-december-quarter

All five major banks now forecasting economy shrank in December quarter

They are all wrong ……the RBNZ forecast 0.7% growth ……can’t be too far off

No matter what govt gave me a decent payrise today:t_up::):)

[nztx]

They are all wrong ……the RBNZ forecast 0.7% growth ……can’t be too far off

No matter what govt gave me a decent payrise today:t_up::):)


Growth in what - the cost of new chairs in Govt frontbenches after Bellamy's new menus come out on 1 April
adding also a new range of indigenous offerings .. ? :)

Got to be positive about these things :)

At least the Politicians wont fall through the new chairs for a while .. with extra strengthening and padding :)

When do we see how much increase they got themselves for overseeing the unfolding shambles ?

[bull....]

the working class help pay for your pay rise thru increased fuel taxes and end of public transport subsidy

[justakiwi]

As someone who is most definitely "working class" I have no objection to winner69 getting a pay rise, if he has put his best effort into whatever job he does, and has met his employers expectations.

Every person who pays taxes, or buys things, or uses a service - is indirectly paying for somebody's pay rise.




the working class help pay for your pay rise thru increased fuel taxes and end of public transport subsidy

[clip]

As someone who is most definitely "working class" I have no objection to winner69 getting a pay rise, if he has put his best effort into whatever job he does, and has met his employers expectations.

Every person who pays taxes, or buys things, or uses a service - is indirectly paying for somebody's pay rise.

I'm going to hazard a guess their payrise comes by way of superannuation, no best effort or employment involved lol

[Balance]

I'm going to hazard a guess their payrise comes by way of superannuation, no best effort or employment involved lol

Try ‘working for family’ pay rises for the solo mums - beneficiary breeders of ever more children.

[winner69]

I'm going to hazard a guess their payrise comes by way of superannuation, no best effort or employment involved lol

But govts over the years have taken one and frippence in the pound and decimal equivalent out of my earnings to give me some extra cash when I got old……..so not todays working class paying for my pay rise, just getting some of what I paid in back.

[troyvdh]

Sadly..sadly on this occasion I have to agree with Balance.I believe in some states in the US...and in some European nations...single folk with a child..recieve benefits...however I believe benefits diminish with any additional children....
I assume the logic is..having children should not be a source of income.

[justakiwi]

As a solo mother who has been on a benefit in the past, thanks for that Balance.

God help them if any of your children or grandchildren ever find themself in that position. No doubt you would wash your hands of them.

“There, but for the grace of God, go I.”


Try ‘working for family’ pay rises for the solo mums - beneficiary breeders of ever more children.

[Balance]

As a solo mother who has been on a benefit in the past, thanks for that Balance.

God help them if any of your children or grandchildren ever find themself in that position. No doubt you would wash your hands of them.

“There, but for the grace of God, go I.”

Solo mum with 6 kids to 6 fathers?

[Jaa]

Hong Kong as a crypto hub … under a communist regime? Now that’s a good one!

Aren't corrupt communist officials the biggest actual users (as opposed to traders) of crypto?

Spend your ill gotten yuan on server farms and mine assets that you can freely sell outside China.

[justakiwi]

Oh so now you’re going to claim you’re not talking about all beneficiaries. Maybe stop with the generalisations and quit attacking everyone who has ever needed to be on a benefit.

It’s always women you pick on. I have not once heard you mention men on benefits. Your misogyny is showing.


Solo mum with 6 kids to 6 fathers?

[SailorRob]

Winner didn't get any pay rise, be very lucky if they can purchase the same amount of goods and services now with the 'money rise' than 12 months ago.

If you want the type of pay rise winner got then you can get way bigger ones in Zimbabwe.

[SailorRob]

Who cares anyway, we both agree, crypto is a scam, and bitcoin is hard to understand I get it, if you don't understand bitcoin don't buy it simply, yet we should all at least own something of the equivalent, debasement is going to be rough, gold, silver, property, energy sector, food resources

We should all have our net worth invested in ports, oil fields, railways, food production systems, farms, factories, transportation networks, communication networks, airports, medical services, energy resources, technology services, defence systems, education, old age care systems...

The means of production. People have fought over its control for ever, and now you can own it with ease virtually for free.

Then you just sit on your arse and relax about everything.

[Rawz]

Much of the developed world has a huge birth rate problem. Every woman needs to have 2.1 kids just to maintain the population. We have two kids and won’t be having anymore.. because it’s so hard and expensive.. so Mrs Rawz and I fail.

Won’t be long until some creative policies are introduced to get us having more babies.. basically it’s going to be financial. Baby bonus, 12month salary covered etc etc

Or maybe we just rely on the ‘breeders’ (as Balance puts it lol) to do the hard yards for the country. If they want to do the hard work and collect the benefit (which is sweet fa…) then all the power to them I say. It’s not like they holiday or go to nice restaurants etc pretty miserable life, but some like the simple life I guess

Others will say the planet needs less people and it’s good. Wonder what that would do to asset prices?

[Baa_Baa]

We should all have our net worth invested in ports, oil fields, railways, food production systems, farms, factories, transportation networks, communication networks, airports, medical services, energy resources, technology services, defence systems, education, old age care systems...

The means of production. People have fought over its control for ever, and now you can own it with ease virtually for free.

Then you just sit on your arse and relax about everything.

Investing, the traditional way, has been beaten senseless these past couple of decades. Old money didn't get old, or money, without understanding the time value equation of investing in enduring necessities, and compounding effects (the 8th wonder of the world), in the basics that everyone needs or wants.

So few seem to have a grasp of it anymore, as speculation on the quick buck, the thrill of a 10 bagger, has overtaken common sense. Get rich slowly without risk, or at least less risk. Let time compound returns, let time be your friend and make you wealthy, monetarily anyway. The rest of being wealthy in life is up to you to figure out.

[moka]

I'm going to hazard a guess their payrise comes by way of superannuation, no best effort or employment involved lolNice, a 7.22% pay rise for me too. Never had such a big pay rise before.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/03/cost-of-living-significant-increases-to-superannuation-benefits-student-support.html
(https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/03/cost-of-living-significant-increases-to-superannuation-benefits-student-support.html)
However, with inflation rising so quickly recently - it was 7.22 percent in the December quarter - Cabinet has this year agreed to also increase main benefits by the same. In comparison, the net average wage rose by 6.24 percent.

Superannuation will also rise by the same percentage. This means a couple both aged over 65 will get $102.84 more every fortnight. A single pensioner living alone receives an extra $66.86.

[SailorRob]

Nice, a 7.22% pay rise for me too. Never had such a big pay rise before.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/03/cost-of-living-significant-increases-to-superannuation-benefits-student-support.html
(https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/03/cost-of-living-significant-increases-to-superannuation-benefits-student-support.html)
However, with inflation rising so quickly recently - it was 7.22 percent in the December quarter - Cabinet has this year agreed to also increase main benefits by the same. In comparison, the net average wage rose by 6.24 percent.

Superannuation will also rise by the same percentage. This means a couple both aged over 65 will get $102.84 more every fortnight. A single pensioner living alone receives an extra $66.86.

Wake up mate. You have not had a pay rise at all. You've had a cut.

[SailorRob]

Investing, the traditional way, has been beaten senseless these past couple of decades. Old money didn't get old, or money, without understanding the time value equation of investing in enduring necessities, and compounding effects (the 8th wonder of the world), in the basics that everyone needs or wants.

So few seem to have a grasp of it anymore, as speculation on the quick buck, the thrill of a 10 bagger, has overtaken common sense. Get rich slowly without risk, or at least less risk. Let time compound returns, let time be your friend and make you wealthy, monetarily anyway. The rest of being wealthy in life is up to you to figure out.

Yeah, I am so grateful for this ignorance as where the real money is at as you say has been forgotten and therefore our forward returns are truly exceptional.

Most will miss the opportunity entirely.

[JBmurc]

ARAMCO --USD $148.5Billion free cashflows ... what a Beast of a company .. dead opposite to the whole Woke movement of idiots

Woke political movements( with basis of anti capitalism )drive woke banks like SVB to fund ..uneconomically folly business plans = inflation in real living costs of real needs of living -low cost ENERGY , HOUSING , FOOD ...

Just watched an CNBC interview of a young new tech businessman talking up how they had loans from SVB as they were one of the few banks to lend funds on business plans that would take several years till coming to any real results pure new techs ??? he was hoping HSBC was going set-up an arm to help these new business as some were working on new age energy techs, like cryptos how good are those they chew up masses of energy and protect criminal druglords, slavetrade . murder for hire etc how could we ever survive without Cryptos ....

Maybe more WINDMILL companies .. talk about new TECH LOL>>>>>

[SailorRob]

ARAMCO --USD $148.5Billion free cashflows ... what a Beast of a company .. dead opposite to the whole Woke movement of idiots

Woke political movements( with basis of anti capitalism )drive woke banks like SVB to fund ..uneconomically folly business plans = inflation in real living costs of real needs of living -low cost ENERGY , HOUSING , FOOD ...

Just watched an CNBC interview of a young new tech businessman talking up how they had loans from SVB as they were one of the few banks to lend funds on business plans that would take several years till coming to any real results pure new techs ??? he was hoping HSBC was going set-up an arm to help these new business as some were working on new age energy techs, like cryptos how good are those they chew up masses of energy and protect criminal druglords, slavetrade . murder for hire etc how could we ever survive without Cryptos ....

Maybe more WINDMILL companies .. talk about new TECH LOL>>>>>

How much capital did it take to produce those cash flows and what are they relative to the capital invested over a full cycle?

[JBmurc]

How much capital did it take to produce those cash flows and what are they relative to the capital invested over a full cycle?

Armco i don't know of the exact OPEX-CAPEX numbers ... but FREE CASHFLOWS at present and for many decades have been insanely massive as have been for many Oil&Gas producers ... returns on capital VERY high ...

.. we also seen HUGE profits in the Banking sector ... basically printing money out of thin air and charging interest on it ... as long as you keep your Capital base in check and lending risk low...banks make very good FCF ... COAL producers since anti Russia also doing really well .. YAL was around $2 SP couple years ago ...since then they have risen to present highs $6.86 ..also massive FCF paid near on $2 in dividends ....

all not very WOKE .... as they say go WOKE go Broke .... over the rest of the decade I think we will continue to see blowhards pushing woke feel good green failing lost making operation continue to lose trillions in invested capital ...while real primary industry core safe banking will continue to grow and make HUGE FCF ...

Of course going need to bring in all these anti major profit TAXES on successive business models to help pay for the loss making business models ...

[bull....]

seriously volatile action all over the place

flight to safety in gold and bitcoin , bitcoin cause its free from fiat system i guess
US bonds cratering ... flight to safety i guess

regional banks getting savaged obviously people are bailing from these banks smartly

First Republic drops 70%, leads decline in bank stocks despite government’s backstop of SVB


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/first-republic-drops-bank-stocks-decline.html


asx bank and financial stocks going to get hammered today ....

hows heartland on the nzx going to fare?

[bull....]

good time to top on bank stocks ? raking it in
or more contagion to come ?

Banks ramped up their margins to generate a record $7.15 billion in after-tax profits last year, a report from consultancy KPMG says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131469883/kpmg-bank-report-shows-banks-lifting-margins-despite-claiming-concern-for-borrowers

[bull....]

Winner didn't get any pay rise, be very lucky if they can purchase the same amount of goods and services now with the 'money rise' than 12 months ago.

If you want the type of pay rise winner got then you can get way bigger ones in Zimbabwe.

true no pay rise
winner and everyone else is actually getting poorer pay rise not keeping up with inflation , nest egg getting smaller by the day as the great unwind roll's along affecting all assets of retiring baby boomers :scared: obviously beneficiaries not effected by this

suggest all beneficiaries and superiannuants lodge there strike notice and demand a higher pay rise too meet cost of living increases

Food prices surged at an annual rate of 12% in February with rises across all the broad food categories Statistics NZ measures

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/120289/food-prices-surged-annual-rate-12-february-rises-across-all-broad-food

[mfd]

Beneficiaries and superannuants are treading water to keep afloat in the sea of inflation. Maybe Labour will turn to the drowning public sector workers next? Certainly more strikes to come there...

"Public sector ordinary time hourly earnings increased by 4.7 percent, to $45.12.

Public sector wages [including overtime] increased by 3.6 percent over the year."

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/labour-market-statistics-december-2022-quarter/

[Aaron]

Every badly run bank and dumb investment guaranteed by the US govt. Why weren't the US markets shooting higher last night?

Have I got that wrong, bad news is good news for the markets.

What happened?

[whatsup]

Every badly run bank and dumb investment guaranteed by the US govt. Why weren't the US markets shooting higher last night?

Have I got that wrong, bad news is good news for the markets.

What happened?

Stability - sort of !

[Bobdn]

Stability - sort of !

Yes and more uncertainity than you can shake a stick at.

I'm a perma bull but I may need to take my lumps over the next little while :) Hey, dividends are about to hit and get reinvested in the next few weeks so its not all bad.

Its bloodcurdling. I liked this guys explaination (Larry McDonald).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJRSjBddSfI

[JBmurc]

Every badly run bank and dumb investment guaranteed by the US govt. Why weren't the US markets shooting higher last night?

Have I got that wrong, bad news is good news for the markets.

What happened?

markets hoping rates will be put on hold from the FED

[ynot]

Yes and more uncertainity than you can shake a stick at.

I'm a perma bull but I may need to take my lumps over the next little while :) Hey, dividends are about to hit and get reinvested in the next few weeks so its not all bad.

Its bloodcurdling. I liked this guys explaination (Larry McDonald).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJRSjBddSfI
Interesting comments. Common sense tells us the Fed have dug themselves a deep hole.

[Bobdn]

Yes deep, deep hole.

I see gold in nzd terms is now near an all time high. That's got to mean something I guess.

My ASB moderate fund includes 3 per cent gold! The fund is managed by Superlife, so a good call. I wonder if it's the only NZ managed fund to include gold. Imagine including gold in a fund, what a lovely throwback. At the time I thought it was odd.

[Balance]

And where were the Western financial commentators and economists even as the rot set in the US banking system?

Busy pointing fingers at the apparent banking woes of other countries!

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/banking/first-republic-bank-shares-plunge-days-after-three-other-us-banks-collapse/news-story/8dc37270b7e41ff629e63b7fac4b6813

[Aaron]

Biggest stimulus package ever for the US (over $2 trillion or approaching 10% GDP) getting close to being finalized and implemented.

Meanwhile, there are bargains to be had but ...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-be-practically-stealing-quality-stocks-now-according-to-jefferies-2020-03-23?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Be careful!

Prescient post back in March 2020. Where are we now, close to the bottom? or do we need to wait for the $4 trillion rescue package.

[Bobdn]

I really enjoyed this interview on CNBC. What experts thinks of the bail out. Spoiler alert: they think it's terrible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_0jNrlDZ0w&t=113s

Must be great having the Reserve Currency of the world to play with.

Aaron Klein, senior fellow in economic studies at The Brookings Institute, Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and David Bahnsen, founder and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's response to the SVB fallout, bank market risk, and the contagion effect from SVB.

[SailorRob]

Armco i don't know of the exact OPEX-CAPEX numbers ... but FREE CASHFLOWS at present and for many decades have been insanely massive as have been for many Oil&Gas producers ... returns on capital VERY high ...

.. we also seen HUGE profits in the Banking sector ... basically printing money out of thin air and charging interest on it ... as long as you keep your Capital base in check and lending risk low...banks make very good FCF ... COAL producers since anti Russia also doing really well .. YAL was around $2 SP couple years ago ...since then they have risen to present highs $6.86 ..also massive FCF paid near on $2 in dividends ....

all not very WOKE .... as they say go WOKE go Broke .... over the rest of the decade I think we will continue to see blowhards pushing woke feel good green failing lost making operation continue to lose trillions in invested capital ...while real primary industry core safe banking will continue to grow and make HUGE FCF ...

Of course going need to bring in all these anti major profit TAXES on successive business models to help pay for the loss making business models ...


Yeah a few things wrong here, huge misunderstandings. As is often the case with Sharetrader, a couple of facts mixed in with a lot of rubbish.

I'm not talking about OPEX or CAPEX.

Free cashflows are irrelevant unless you compare them to the capital invested to produce them and you correctly analyse depreciation and depletion. I can double free cash flow and double it again and again with a term deposit in a bank, just by doubling the amount of money I have invested.

Currently the oil/gas/coal sector has huge free cash flows yes, I would know having had a large portion of my net worth invested in this sector since 2020. But the returns on capital for this industry are notoriously terrible and the entire industry had earned nothing in the last 10 years until now. You could not be more wrong with what you're saying and just a few minutes of research would tell you this, the sector had shrunk to an all time low proportion of the S&P500.

So let me tell you, free cash flows have been insanely LOW and returns on capital negative for a VERY long time.

Free cash flows can only be judged based on the capital invested to produce them or what you can buy that capital for.

If as you say, free cash flows have been insanely massive for many decades then these companies would trade at 30 or 40 times earnings, the fact they trade at single digits is the market telling you that it thinks this is a one off burst in the midst of a multi decade quagmire, a pestiferous one at that.

The banking sector profits are also awful in relation to capital and if you spend 30 seconds looking at the share prices of the big banks since 2008 you'll figure it out fast. Most also trade at sub 10 PE's. Half of the market price.

You have drawn a very long bow from a few facts taken in isolation of the bigger picture.

[Bobdn]

Well, as I was saying in an earlier thread, the best share to own over the last 100 years was Philip Morris. Insanely high cash flow, insanely low PE - for decades. Even from the 1960s with the immese litigation it was still the best share to own, if one reinvested all dividends. People hated the stock but it still shat out/sh*ts out money at an incredible rate. Reinvesting huge and regular dividends into an unloved share does the business apparently. Whether it will continue to be excellent, I doubt it but what would I know.

Exxon is up there too over this period too.

Interestingly oil and gas accounts for just 5 per cent of the S&P500 but 12 per cent of the earnings currently.

I just finished Fossil Future by Bernstein. Absolutely brilliant. Now I'm onto Random Walk down Wall Street. Finally made it to Random Walk lol.

Life as an indexer/ETFer is pretty boring.

[SailorRob]

Well, as I was saying in an earlier thread, the best share to own over the last 100 years was Philip Morris. Insanely high cash flow, insanely low PE - for decades. Even from the 1960s with the immese litigation it was still the best share to own, if one reinvested all dividends. People hated the stock but it still shat out/sh*ts out money at an incredible rate. Reinvesting huge and regular dividends into an unloved share does the business apparently. Whether it will continue to be excellent, I doubt it but what would I know.

Exxon is up there too over this period too.

Interestingly oil and gas accounts for just 5 per cent of the S&P500 but 12 per cent of the earnings currently.

I just finished Fossil Future by Bernstein. Absolutely brilliant. Now I'm onto Random Walk down Wall Street. Finally made it to Random Walk lol.

Very true and what I've been banging on about on OCA thread for ages. Rising share prices, what EVERY person on share trader wants, is the last thing that will make you a lot of money. You want your groceries to be cheap

[BlackPeter]

Life as an indexer/ETFer is pretty boring.

True ... but lets face it - in some areas (and health and finances are some of them) boring is good. You still can take some play money you don't need and do with that whatever you want.

[Bobdn]

I agree. Boring has its place

[JBmurc]

Yeah a few things wrong here, huge misunderstandings. As is often the case with Sharetrader, a couple of facts mixed in with a lot of rubbish.

I'm not talking about OPEX or CAPEX.

Free cashflows are irrelevant unless you compare them to the capital invested to produce them and you correctly analyse depreciation and depletion. I can double free cash flow and double it again and again with a term deposit in a bank, just by doubling the amount of money I have invested.

Currently the oil/gas/coal sector has huge free cash flows yes, I would know having had a large portion of my net worth invested in this sector since 2020. But the returns on capital for this industry are notoriously terrible and the entire industry had earned nothing in the last 10 years until now. You could not be more wrong with what you're saying and just a few minutes of research would tell you this, the sector had shrunk to an all time low proportion of the S&P500.

So let me tell you, free cash flows have been insanely LOW and returns on capital negative for a VERY long time.

Free cash flows can only be judged based on the capital invested to produce them or what you can buy that capital for.

If as you say, free cash flows have been insanely massive for many decades then these companies would trade at 30 or 40 times earnings, the fact they trade at single digits is the market telling you that it thinks this is a one off burst in the midst of a multi decade quagmire, a pestiferous one at that.

The banking sector profits are also awful in relation to capital and if you spend 30 seconds looking at the share prices of the big banks since 2008 you'll figure it out fast. Most also trade at sub 10 PE's. Half of the market price.

You have drawn a very long bow from a few facts taken in isolation of the bigger picture.

LOL man good laugh ... wow you have been investing in the Energy sector since 2020 ..good for you

So how do you think all these successive Banking O&G Coal Giants created Capital .... If they have been like you say such bad business models then they shouldn't have High earnings to share values they should have HIGH P/E right so you think TESLA was a better business when it had a very high P/E 1000 to present 40's as TESLA has increased earnings ..

.. XOM been around in present form since 1999 and direct descend back to standard oil from 1870 ... paying many dividends all along the way growing into the giant it is today ... one of the largest revenues in the world ...but in you view a poor investment

Both Saudi Aramco and Apple have the same net Profit margin late last year report which I found interesting...

yes I should have replaced FCF with Cashflows(was very late several hours in front of a screen etc!!) as I did recall the 2011 to 2016 period investing in the micro-jnr resources sector as being very tough ..as you see I've been investing trading the sector since early 2000's

Still I'd love to know your much better sectors to be invested in going forward that have far better Cashflows and high potentials for great FCFs.. I'll take Banking / Energy / Minerals ...

[JBmurc]

Still getting my head around present banking issues in USA

A bunch of banks regulated by... The Federal Reserve
was suddenly shut down by... The Federal Reserve
and depositors bailed out by... The Federal Reserve
all bc of interest rates set by... The Federal Reserve

[ynot]

Still getting my head around present banking issues in USA

A bunch of banks regulated by... The Federal Reserve
was suddenly shut down by... The Federal Reserve
and depositors bailed out by... The Federal Reserve
all bc of interest rates set by... The Federal Reserve
Not to worry, Biden says he has it under control so sleep well.

[Balance]

US$300 billion US bank put under administration.

Some perspective:

US economy is 103 times the size of NZ economy.

So the US$300 billion is equivalent to a US$2.91 billion bank being put into administration.

That’s equivalent to a NZ$4.7 billion situation - the finance company sector collapse in NZ cost depositors & the government $7 billion.

So the bank failure is hardly going to hit the broader US economy and the financial system. Maybe similar or equivalent banks and financial institutions with heavy exposure to the venture capital and crypto scam industries.

No risk of contagion but don’t let the doomsayers dissuade you that it’s Lehman all over again.

Just as crypto is the new global currency system just 15 months ago, remember?

Some perspective on what’s happening from someone at the coal face :

https://vt.tiktok.com/ZS8XqQmY1/

[alokdhir]

FED rates futures dropping full 1.5% from 10 days old 5+% to 3.5% ....thats the theme which many market pundits or punters are working on ...Lehman type crisis maybe unfolding due to dominos effect of SVB ...main ingredient of financial stability is " Confidence " in the system ...that has been hurt very broadly at a very critical time when most of the banks are sitting on huge securities mark to market losses ...their liquidity requirement going up suddenly on this lack of trust will either make them book losses on some securities or go under .

FED this time will be smarter then Lehman time and will try its best to avoid contagion effect of this confidence depleting incident of SVB ...Nomura is looking for rate cut now in march meeting ....If they see financial stability issue then they may have to do that ...hopefully not !!

Tonights US CPI print will fix views more clearly ....anything hot will lead to big trouble all over as that will reduce FED's options to deal with SVB troubles

[Nor]

Not to worry, Biden says he has it under control so sleep well.

Guarantee everything and print money as required. Simple. Should help get the deficit down too.

[SailorRob]

LOL man good laugh ... wow you have been investing in the Energy sector since 2020 ..good for you

So how do you think all these successive Banking O&G Coal Giants created Capital .... If they have been like you say such bad business models then they shouldn't have High earnings to share values they should have HIGH P/E right so you think TESLA was a better business when it had a very high P/E 1000 to present 40's as TESLA has increased earnings ..

.. XOM been around in present form since 1999 and direct descend back to standard oil from 1870 ... paying many dividends all along the way growing into the giant it is today ... one of the largest revenues in the world ...but in you view a poor investment

Both Saudi Aramco and Apple have the same net Profit margin late last year report which I found interesting...

yes I should have replaced FCF with Cashflows(was very late several hours in front of a screen etc!!) as I did recall the 2011 to 2016 period investing in the micro-jnr resources sector as being very tough ..as you see I've been investing trading the sector since early 2000's

Still I'd love to know your much better sectors to be invested in going forward that have far better Cashflows and high potentials for great FCFs.. I'll take Banking / Energy / Minerals ...


I think my point was Sport, that I wasn't dumb enough to have been it in before 2020. By investing in the energy sector during 2020 I was able to put significant portions of my net worth into ARLP at $2.89 which is now paying me $2.89 in dividends per year. Most investors don't experience this in a lifetime. And into Occidental Petroleum Warrants at $3 which then more than 10 bagged in 2 years. As well as XOM around $30...

I was not highlighting 'since 2020' as having been a lengthy amount of time. I have followed the sector closely for over 20 years and worked in it for 20 years sport so this is what I was meaning.

How did they create capital, well sport you should know the answer to this. They got it from people like yourself. In spades. And then destroyed it all.

Investing trading the sector? I don't even know what investing trading is mate.

Two companies have an identical net profit margin for a moment in time, wow so interesting bro, Costco has a net margin of 2% and is a far better business than some with 60% margins, why? Margins mean nothing. It's all about what can be earned with what capital.

I agree it will be hard to find a better sector going forward than Energy, this is why I am heavily invested.

XOM has indeed been a poor investment, a VERY poor one over the last cycle as the ALL have been. The share price went nowhere Sport for 15 years... But at times, and indeed over it's entire history it has done well.

Largest Revenues in the world mean nothing. You can generate large revenues tomorrow by setting up a company that flies people Auckland to London for $100 return. It's PORFIT sport that matters and only in relation to invested capital.


If they have been like you say such bad business models then they shouldn't have High earnings to share values they should have HIGH P/E right so you think TESLA was a better business when it had a very high P/E 1000 to present 40's as TESLA has increased earnings ..

Took a while to even understand what you're saying here. Firstly yes, banking and energy are not good businesses but at times can be good investments. In fact on reflection I have no idea what you're saying. High earnings to share values means that the market is saying the earnings are not sustainable. A high PE is the opposite as well as reflecting rising earnings.

Are you Bull posting under a different name?

So tell us how you've been doing since the early 2000's what's your record like, you sound like a real pro.

[bull....]

I think my point was Sport, that I wasn't dumb enough to have been it in before 2020. By investing in the energy sector during 2020 I was able to put significant portions of my net worth into ARLP at $2.89 which is now paying me $2.89 in dividends per year. Most investors don't experience this in a lifetime. And into Occidental Petroleum Warrants at $3 which then more than 10 bagged in 2 years. As well as XOM around $30...

I was not highlighting 'since 2020' as having been a lengthy amount of time. I have followed the sector closely for over 20 years and worked in it for 20 years sport so this is what I was meaning.

How did they create capital, well sport you should know the answer to this. They got it from people like yourself. In spades. And then destroyed it all.

Investing trading the sector? I don't even know what investing trading is mate.

Two companies have an identical net profit margin for a moment in time, wow so interesting bro, Costco has a net margin of 2% and is a far better business than some with 60% margins, why? Margins mean nothing. It's all about what can be earned with what capital.

I agree it will be hard to find a better sector going forward than Energy, this is why I am heavily invested.

XOM has indeed been a poor investment, a VERY poor one over the last cycle as the ALL have been. The share price went nowhere Sport for 15 years... But at times, and indeed over it's entire history it has done well.

Largest Revenues in the world mean nothing. You can generate large revenues tomorrow by setting up a company that flies people Auckland to London for $100 return. It's PORFIT sport that matters and only in relation to invested capital.


If they have been like you say such bad business models then they shouldn't have High earnings to share values they should have HIGH P/E right so you think TESLA was a better business when it had a very high P/E 1000 to present 40's as TESLA has increased earnings ..

Took a while to even understand what you're saying here. Firstly yes, banking and energy are not good businesses but at times can be good investments. In fact on reflection I have no idea what you're saying. High earnings to share values means that the market is saying the earnings are not sustainable. A high PE is the opposite as well as reflecting rising earnings.

Are you Bull posting under a different name?

So tell us how you've been doing since the early 2000's what's your record like, you sound like a real pro.

no im not jbmurc
anyway
what's porfit ? your spelling is getting as bad as mine at times
dont know if i agree with your margins dont matter statement

[SailorRob]

no im not jbmurc
anyway
what's porfit ? your spelling is getting as bad as mine at times
dont know if i agree with your margins dont matter statement

It's getting worse but I wouldn't go as far as
being as bad as you.

A business such as a supermarket can be phenomenal with 2% margins as can a software business with 80% margins.

The 2% could be better.

It all depends...

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/03/economists-say-economy-already-shrinking-but-ocr-still-likely-to-rise.html

End game of rate hikes and capitulation is very close ...need get ready !!

[BlackPeter]

Not to worry, Biden says he has it under control so sleep well.

Better keep politics out of this thread. Nothing to do with Biden. Trump managed to screw the system up (and he did that by severe and incredibly dumb deregulation) ... and now its his successors fault?

[bull....]

Better keep politics out of this thread. Nothing to do with Biden. Trump managed to screw the system up (and he did that by severe and incredibly dumb deregulation) ... and now its his successors fault?

the bank failure was just bad management and poor regulatory oversight and yes possibly due to rollback of reg's

[Muse]

actually the bank failure was just bad management and poor regulatory oversight


According to the WSJ, SVB didn't have ANY hedges on its bonds at the end of last year, and didn't have a risk officer for the majority of last year (which it also failed to disclose). That coupled with it had very little sticky retail deposits, and instead transient tech based company deposits. Seems an incredible F'up.

[percy]

Ord Minnett notes two distinct differences between SVB and Australian banks:

SVB customers are concentrated towards concentrated and lumpy deposits whereas household deposits make up 40% to 50% of deposits across major Australia banks

SVB had a large percentage of their assets held in investment securities, which were out of the money, whereas Australian banks primarily invest in mortgages and corporate debt

“We do not believe the conditions that allowed a run to happen on SVB exist for Australian banks,” the report said.

[bull....]

Ord Minnett notes two distinct differences between SVB and Australian banks:

SVB customers are concentrated towards concentrated and lumpy deposits whereas household deposits make up 40% to 50% of deposits across major Australia banks

SVB had a large percentage of their assets held in investment securities, which were out of the money, whereas Australian banks primarily invest in mortgages and corporate debt

“We do not believe the conditions that allowed a run to happen on SVB exist for Australian banks,” the report said.


there info is wrong
SVB invested in govt backed securities , safe as chips stuff ....

[mike2020]

there info is wrong
SVB invested in govt backed securities , safe as chips stuff ....

I thought it was low interest rate bonds? i.e. investment securities, which were out of the money,

[bull....]

I thought it was low interest rate bonds? i.e. investment securities, which were out of the money,

your correct low int govt backed securities.
bad management didnt use diritives to hedge risk which most banks do

[Snow Leopard]

there info is wrong
SVB invested in govt backed securities , safe as chips stuff ....

Their info is right
Government backed securities (and other stuff) are investment securities

[bull....]

Their info is right
Government backed securities (and other stuff) are investment securities

yes big difference in my mind

are aus banks safe if the property market falls another 20 -50% ? mortgages are not govt guaranteed

[Aaron]

Might have been OK at a guess if everyone didn't decide to get their money out at the same time and SVB could have held the securities to maturity (not sure of the duration). Instead I guess to free up the cash to pay the depositors they had to start trying to sell the securities at a massive loss. Don't know the figures but I guess a 1% bond purchased a year ago is now worth a lot less on the secondary market if rates are around 3%. (I am just making up the rates but they have increased considerably over the last little while).

[Rawz]

the thing that scares me with SVB and their collapse.. is the reason it collapsed.. it just wouldnt be on my radar.. the make up of deposits and investments in treasuries is not something that I would be looking into.

Like i would just be looking at how the loan book was performing and ratios like NIM, NLM, book value, EPS growth etc for my investment decision. So i would have been wiped out as a holder.

Shouldnt be too hard on myself I guess. billions of investor funds wiped out. And Fisher Funds got caught out with Signature Bank, and they are full time guru's spending all day analyzing this stuff

[BlackPeter]

there info is wrong
SVB invested in govt backed securities , safe as chips stuff ....

Correct - they invested in long term secure but low interest bonds which with rising interest rates obviously dropped in value. And than they had to sell these bonds in order to return their customers short term savings. Must be really hard in the US to get capable bankers.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/3/14/why-did-silicon-valley-bank-fail-and-is-a-financial-crisis-next#:~:text=Short%20on%20cash%2C%20SVB%20was,to%2 0cause%20the%20bank's%20collapse.

“SVB collapsed because of a stupid rookie mistake with their interest-rate-risk management: They invested short-term deposits into long-term bonds. When interest rates rose, the value of the bonds fell, wiping out the equity of the bank,” James Angel, an expert on regulation of global financial markets at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera"

Bonds are safe, but clearly they move in value with the interest rate. Financial management 101. You wonder how dumb managers must be to become a banker in the US.

[winner69]

Good to see we continue to live beyond our means

Current account deficit out of control

You’d think something has got to give soon

[BlackPeter]

Good to see we continue to live beyond our means

Current account deficit out of control

You’d think something has got to give soon

Is this inflation adjusted?

Anyway, might well improve when all these re-insurers transfer their funds into NZ to cover the flood damage claims. Never mind, they will get their money back over time by increasing the premiums.

I recon increasing tourism / migration and a handful of good harvest might help as well.

[nztx]

Is this inflation adjusted?

Anyway, might well improve when all these re-insurers transfer their funds into NZ to cover the flood damage claims. Never mind, they will get their money back over time by increasing the premiums.

I recon increasing tourism / migration and a handful of good harvest might help as well.


that decimated harvest in cyclone affected areas could in part take years to track back up to
pre-cyclone levels, and then there's infrastructure repair/replacement to do first

[nztx]

And the next candidate for a bit of US Bank smashing and crashing may be:


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-wall-street-expert-predicts-next-us-bank-at-risk-of-failure/4UFGBQIWKFEV5CFMOY2GH72E7I/

How's the Bank Reserve Fund doing ? - enough left over for some more fun ? :)

[Jaa]

Anyone watching Credit Suisse?

Share price is down 60% this year and market cap is now just $US10b which isn't a lot for the world's 6th biggest investment bank. They lost a lot on some poor private equity lending and now their credit default swaps are nearing GFC levels.

Never a crisis till the CEO denies it...
Credit Suisse has strong capital base and liquidity -CEO memo (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/credit-suisse-has-strong-capital-base-liquidity-ceo-memo-2022-09-30/)

Lots of news about Credit Suisse now.

[bull....]

Lots of news about Credit Suisse now.

thx to the saudi comment they are all freaking out lol

guess all this means recession everywhere is coming quicker now , look at oil plummeting pricing it in

[Marilyn Munroe]

The cuckoo clock bankers should have stuck with their traditional specialty.

Taking money no questions asked from money launderers tax cheats and third world despots. Converting it to Swiss Francs at unfavorable rates then punishing them mercilessly with high fees.

But they wanted to be masters of the universe.(1)

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

The term "masters of the universe" is a term used by Tom Wolfe in his novel Bonfire of the Vanities to describe traders from Wall Street Banks

[peat]

I wonder if Kiyosakihad a short on 😉

[bull....]

looks like the carnage is just in financials and commodity and oil stocks today probably why the asx is looking like a weak day.
com services , utilities and bonds had a flight to safety

[Biscuit]

thx to the saudi comment they are all freaking out lol

guess all this means recession everywhere is coming quicker now , look at oil plummeting pricing it in

As long as inflation is under control, a small recession is just what the doctor ordered. But is inflation under control? Increases in benefits etc, near full employment, pressure for wage growth - seems a bit early to think we have tamed inflation. Can interest rates keep going up while banks are failing because of increasing interest rates?

[nztx]

Lots of news about Credit Suisse now.


Hope the Russians enjoy their Swiss experience with their hidden undeclared loot stuck in Cuckoo Land accounts :)

[bull....]

As long as inflation is under control, a small recession is just what the doctor ordered. But is inflation under control? Increases in benefits etc, near full employment, pressure for wage growth - seems a bit early to think we have tamed inflation. Can interest rates keep going up while banks are failing because of increasing interest rates?

all this bank stuff happening making fed job easier cause its tightening conditions more. banks will lend less now going forward further tightening things up.
money supply negative , in all history when goes negative points to recession for sure
curve steepning again from being heavily inverted , in all history this has led to recession
the stock market has never bottomed in all history before recession so further to go down yet

im picking powell go 25 still with changed outlook , cause who knows what will happen with banks going forward could be still more blow - ups as we go into recession

be fascinating what ecb does tonight in there rate dicision , could be volatilty abound again