Black Monday

[bull....]

Statistics New Zealand says falling property values lopped $91.1 billion off the worth of Kiwis in the first nine months of 2022, while falling share and investment values took $78.6 billion away

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/119234/statistics-new-zealand-says-falling-property-values-lopped-911-billion

not good for retail stocks

[dobby41]

Statistics New Zealand says falling property values lopped $91.1 billion off the worth of Kiwis in the first nine months of 2022, while falling share and investment values took $78.6 billion away

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/119234/statistics-new-zealand-says-falling-property-values-lopped-911-billion

not good for retail stocks

A good thing overall - needs to happen faster to get to the end quicker rather than death by a thousand cuts.

[alokdhir]

With NZ50C poised at major resistance of 4800 and also the Bull / Bear final frontier ...its going to get very interesting ahead .

Hoop was expecting 4200 to break when we last moved towards that support ....here we are ...

How many expect 4800 to be conquered in the coming days ? I hope it does but I am neutral in my mind ...maybe it will depend upon CPI print on 25th ...most of the rally is based on some big stocks like FPH / EBO / MEL / MCY / CEN etc

Rest of the market will do catch up if we stick around here for a while before actually showing final direction

Is this setting up for the final capitulation in 2-3rd qtr ??

[Rawz]

Another day another dollar.

[winner69]

No worries this …..new PM who’ll be able to crow about lower inflation and house prices from when he started lol …and market makers getting excited about the markets

But this is serious stuff from guru analysts:

Investors will be spoiled for choice as ongoing market volatility offers up some high-quality assets at bargain prices, say industry

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/482929/uncertain-market-conditions-an-opportunity-for-longer-term-investors

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/inflation-expected-to-have-become-more-domestically-driven/4IWK6VHIERGGJCC4EQONFWXCT4/

Important week

Good new PM knows very little of economics then he may actually listen to some sane advise and do nothing ...let economy sort itself with RNBZ help but alas that maybe expecting too much ....

[Biscuit]

.........But this is serious stuff from guru analysts:

Investors will be spoiled for choice as ongoing market volatility offers up some high-quality assets at bargain prices, say industry

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/482929/uncertain-market-conditions-an-opportunity-for-longer-term-investors

Quote from that article:

"If you're on the cusp of retirement or you're nearing retirement, you shouldn't be in risk assets like shares or property to a large degree."

Must be one of the most ridiculous statements from a serious commentator I've read for a while. Apart from the fact that "the cusp of retirement" and "nearing retirement" are exactly the same thing, no one with half a brain would have most of their investments in cash assets. I retired last year at 59 and with any luck I'll be alive for most of the next 30 years, leaving assets for the next generation after that. Virtually all my (our) investments are in shares and property, what kind of investment advisor would advise otherwise?

[bull....]

Quote from that article:

"If you're on the cusp of retirement or you're nearing retirement, you shouldn't be in risk assets like shares or property to a large degree."

Must be one of the most ridiculous statements from a serious commentator I've read for a while. Apart from the fact that "the cusp of retirement" and "nearing retirement" are exactly the same thing, no one with half a brain would have most of their investments in cash assets. I retired last year at 59 and with any luck I'll be alive for most of the next 30 years, leaving assets for the next generation after that. Virtually all my (our) investments are in shares and property, what kind of investment advisor would advise otherwise?

agree
so i assume he's recommending to all old people who are craig's clients to sell share's quickly and invest in fixed income while it lasts?

[bull....]

ASB have increased mortgage rates this morning at short end and dropped at long end , in anticipation of high inflation figure's this week and then likely big OCR jump next meeting ? but flattened the longer end curve on likely recession later this yr ?

big punting from asb

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/119324/responding-recent-changes-wholesale-rate-shifts-asb-has-adjusted-its

[alokdhir]

ASB have increased mortgage rates this morning at short end and dropped at long end , in anticipation of high inflation figure's this week and then likely big OCR jump next meeting ? but flattened the longer end curve on likely recession later this yr ?

big punting from asb

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/119324/responding-recent-changes-wholesale-rate-shifts-asb-has-adjusted-its

Shud help with p/e expansion of good growth stocks ...MFT is my top pick for next few years ....KFL for the safety first retired people ...lol

[winner69]

Shud help with p/e expansion of good growth stocks ...MFT is my top pick for next few years ....KFL for the safety first retired people ...lol

FPH PE might expand to 100 …cool :):):t_up:

[alokdhir]

FPH PE might expand to 100 …cool :):):t_up:

Why u think its not my top pick anymore ...:p

MFT has become GARP now ...your fancy term with p/e similar to TRA ...

EBO shud reach your desired $ 100 ...:cool:

[bull....]

Why u think its not my top pick anymore ...:p

MFT has become GARP now ...your fancy term with p/e similar to TRA ...

EBO shud reach your desired $ 100 ...:cool:

you know the fuel tax relief and road user charges may go up again next mth , will be cost to mft when occurs

[alokdhir]

you know the fuel tax relief and road user charges may go up again next mth , will be cost to mft when occurs

Will more be cost to consumers then merely to middle man ...but I dont sweat small stuff ...TRA shud be most worried but people get attracted to 10% Gross yield I reckon ....:cool:

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/asb-drops-5-year-mortgage-lower-than-1-year-in-first-sign-interest-rate-hikes-may-soon-slow.html

Almost surely signalling rate cuts ahead ...12 months is bank thinking or shall I say bank seeing rates market saying

Normally they dont like to change mortgage rates very often ...so it seems they think they are on right track and wont need to reverse these changes

[Fisherman11]

you know the fuel tax relief and road user charges may go up again next mth , will be cost to mft when occurs

Mainfreight pass on Fuel and RUC costs via a Variable Fuel/RUC Surcharge billed on every consignment, and is adjusted on a monthly basis.

[bull....]

Mainfreight pass on Fuel and RUC costs via a Variable Fuel/RUC Surcharge billed on every consignment, and is adjusted on a monthly basis.

Cheers , so will be a drag on the economy then when everyone else put there prices up to pass on too consumers then .... more inflation , slower growth = stagflation ?

[BlackPeter]

Cheers , so will be a drag on the economy then when everyone else put there prices up to pass on too consumers then .... more inflation , slower growth = stagflation ?

We clearly can't blame you for posting off topic ... though, you posts seem to be always black, not just on Mondays :t_up:

On a different perspective - wasn't it you as well who told us the sky will fall because our debt load (the lowest of all OECD countries) is sky rocketing? So - its really good the government is stopping these stupid RUC and fuel subsidies and improving the states finances. The next logical step to further improve our first place in having the lowest debt load of all OECD countries!

But I guess - we can't win - whatever happens, there might be something gloomy about it and dead certain the bull will point it out!

[bull....]

We clearly can't blame you for posting off topic ... though, you posts seem to be always black, not just on Mondays :t_up:

On a different perspective - wasn't it you as well who told us the sky will fall because our debt load (the lowest of all OECD countries) is sky rocketing? So - its really good the government is stopping these stupid RUC and fuel subsidies and improving the states finances. The next logical step to further improve our first place in having the lowest debt load of all OECD countries!

But I guess - we can't win - whatever happens, there might be something gloomy about it and dead certain the bull will point it out!

lol it was not me saying the sky will fall because of debt.
but as always it makes me laugh how you like to point out anything as could be negative in your eyes must have been posted by me.
As for debt i see it debt levels have to rise as everything becomes more expensive. common sense

[alokdhir]

Again S&P firmly over 200DSMA ...seems it has more to offer ...

W69's thoughts that rally can last till Easter may be coming true ....stay close to door is always advisable

Many are still waiting with loads of cash to deploy when market does its final capitulation act and Bulls bottom just before recession starts ...history says so too !!

Higher before big lower ?? July to Oct period ...wait with cash or jump in ? Very difficult and dangerous choice ...

W69 / Bull and other gurus enlighten us ...Hoop's signal Dr copper is flashing green since long

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/iBFdQScb-SP500-High-probability-of-an-up-break/ (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/iBFdQScb-SP500-High-probability-of-an-up-break/)

This makes sense as it satisfies both side ....

[BlackPeter]

lol it was not me saying the sky will fall because of debt.
but as always it makes me laugh how you like to point out anything as could be negative in your eyes must have been posted by me.
As for debt i see it debt levels have to rise as everything becomes more expensive. common sense

My apologies for the misunderstanding - I didn't say and didn't meant to say that you are the only one with negative posts ... you clearly are not. It just feels sometimes that you are one of the most proficient and prolific posters in this particular discipline :p ;

Just give it a try and find first something positive about the issue you are posting (and mention that as well) before you inevitably move to the dark side :) : Might brighten up your posts, the threads where you are posting and help yourself as well :t_up: ;

[winner69]

Again S&P firmly over 200DSMA ...seems it has more to offer ...

W69's thoughts that rally can last till Easter may be coming true ....stay close to door is always advisable

Many are still waiting with loads of cash to deploy when market does its final capitulation act and Bulls bottom just before recession starts ...history says so too !!

Higher before big lower ?? July to Oct period ...wait with cash or jump in ? Very difficult and dangerous choice ...

W69 / Bull and other gurus enlighten us ...Hoop's signal Dr copper is flashing green since long

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/iBFdQScb-SP500-High-probability-of-an-up-break/ (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/iBFdQScb-SP500-High-probability-of-an-up-break/)

This makes sense as it satisfies both side ....

All that cash ready to be deployed …..where did it come from?

[alokdhir]

All that cash ready to be deployed …..where did it come from?

Of all the people I didnt expect this question from u ...your mate Mr B is still sitting on 40% cash I reckon ...similarly all the other smart people who went all cash in Dec -Jan 2022 period moment they saw inflation becoming a problem ...didnt u ?

[winner69]

Of all the people I didnt expect this question from u ...your mate Mr B is still sitting on 40% cash I reckon ...similarly all the other smart people who went all cash in Dec -Jan 2022 period moment they saw inflation becoming a problem ...didnt u ?

Oh. So the not so smart people gave the smart ones all that cash they are now sitting on.

Wonder where the not so smart ones got the cash from to give to the smart ones?

[alokdhir]

Oh. So the not so smart people gave the smart ones all that cash they are now sitting on.

Wonder where the not so smart ones got the cash from to give to the smart ones?

Dont tell me u are questioning how stock market works ...Mr B sold to X ...got cash ...X is holding what Mr B sold and Mr B is waiting for capitulation to happen

When KFL traded 12% premium to NAV ...that was clearly showing froth in the market ...I wrote many posts about it ...but how many actually cashed out ...maybe some at least ...

Not so smart ones got that cash from ....guess who ...after all all have or get cash someway ...lol

[Rawz]

cash comes from thin air a lot of the time. the universe just provides it. cool aye

[alokdhir]

cash comes from thin air a lot of the time. the universe just provides it. cool aye

At least for stock market it comes from Rawz pocket ...which gets it from his employer ...lol

But TBH how difficult it is to understand how Mr B is sitting on mountain of cash to deploy into market at his discretion !!

[Rawz]

At least for stock market it comes from Rawz pocket ...which gets it from his employer ...lol

Lol yes but i just write it off like im at university again, learning. paid heaps for my degree. now paying heaps for my share market investing degree of life. helps me sleep at night lol

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/sbs-bank-bumps-year-deposit-rate-up-to-6-percent.html

6% term deposit for 12 months ....

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/wealth-tax-higher-gst-and-lower-income-tax-prominent-economist-cameron-bagrie-reveals-how-he-would-overhaul-tax-system.html

With Arden gone so goes with her promise of No Wealth Tax ...Actually having wealth tax on non productive assets while exempting assets which Govt want to encourage savers into can be useful tool for both parties ...But will they open this box again knowing how it went last time it was on table ...may end up gifting election to National ...New PM may not have the courage to take this big gamble ...

[winner69]

USA price unleaded petrol at pump skyrocketed last week on MonM basis.....after falling for a while......that'll have Fed worried when it comes to inflation

[nztx]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/wealth-tax-higher-gst-and-lower-income-tax-prominent-economist-cameron-bagrie-reveals-how-he-would-overhaul-tax-system.html

With Arden gone so goes with her promise of No Wealth Tax ...Actually having wealth tax on non productive assets while exempting assets which Govt want to encourage savers into can be useful tool for both parties ...But will they open this box again knowing how it went last time it was on table ...may end up gifting election to National ...New PM may not have the courage to take this big gamble ...

I wouldn't think this side of an election .. it may be too much of final nails in the Labour coffin
and it's doubtful if the resident talent pieces could get their act sufficiently together to
work out how it would work without making a complete bulls up of it again in short available time

A change of Government later this year and it might remain on Labour's wish list heading
well into the never never, after most recent trove of bad deeds and incompetence are well forgotten ;)

Lets face it - majority didn't want CGT or a Wealth Tax last time, so pushing that barrow again now
would see Labour venture into no mans land fully equipped with a suicide vest and the red
button firmly placed in the eager unforgiving hands of those who didn't want it last time ..

Ardern recognised the likely risks .. will Hipkins also recognise it, or be too twinkle toed and
want to try his luck by venturing out in amongst the live mines in the field ? ;)

[winner69]

Jeremy Grantham says his predicted big fall still to come …markets didn’t overcorrect on first cycle down

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/

[alokdhir]

Jeremy Grantham says his predicted big fall still to come …markets didn’t overcorrect on first cycle down

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/

Why u needed to read so many articles to find this one about new low coming ....U cud have read Bull's many posts here itself to know this or have this opinion ...lol :p

PS : Main reason why markets have not corrected like before or as per many's perception of getting super cheap bargain territory is most thinking earnings will not be impacted that much like earlier such scenarios ...if that assumption breaks down ahead then ONLY u will get another bigger leg down ie leg down of FED over-tightening causing deeper recession then assumed now ...we will know by Oct 2023

[bull....]

here's some positive news lol

SBS Bank bumps year deposit rate up to 6 percent
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/sbs-bank-bumps-year-deposit-rate-up-to-6-percent.html

[alokdhir]

"It is important to reflect on why the 2022 outcome occurred. For quality growth companies including those in Kingfish, it was largely because valuations had become elevated, against the backdrop of low interest rates. For instance, Mainfreight was trading at 29 times forward earnings, versus its 10 year average of around 20 times. This is now at around 16 times. This dynamic has generally not played out to the same degree for New Zealand’s defensive companies or those with lower growth prospects.
With other companies in a similar situation, Kingfish now looks more attractive on this basis than for quite some time. Plus, history tells us that the ability of companies to grow earnings over time will drive share prices and returns to shareholders."

As per latest KFL newsletter they have tried to explain their underperformance which also shows that growth stocks " Over corrected " while value / dividend stocks did not ....This will reverse with ongoing rotation ....so here we have " Over corrected " part of the market which may not participate in expected new leg down to that extent as dividend and value stocks ....Even if that correction doesn't happen this sector will outperform ...imho

[Aaron]

Jeremy Grantham says his predicted big fall still to come …markets didn’t overcorrect on first cycle down

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder_viewpoints/

I was going to say good news, historically Jeremy has been 3-4years too early but he has been saying this for about a year now anyway.

Jeremy sounds like an intelligent guy but he may not know how things work these days. Another view on what Jeremy says.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jeremy-grantham-doubles-down-market-apocalypse-warns-17-crash-doesnt-rule-out-brutal

Jeremy is, of course, right... if the Fed were to ever allow that to happen. The problem is that Powell would step in long before the S&P dropped anywhere near there and would instruct Blackrock to buy any and all ETFs. Meanwhile, the only brutality has been the collapse in GMO's assets which had been cut by half since 2015 through the end of 2020, as the fund kept doubling down incorrectly on ever more bearish scenarios.

The irony, of course, is that if Grantham is - finally - correct, it will only force Powell to exit from his "Fed put" hibernation and start bidding up risk assets, thus leading to even more pain for bears.

Financial markets and creditism run the world not common sense. Negative interest rates anyone???

[alokdhir]

7.2 % it is ...so BNZ view seems better ...they also view 50 bips hike next and lower peak ...

PS : Lowest quarterly increase of 1.4% in last 6 qtrs ...so progress is started showing ....now it's a question of time

[Perky]

Surprised it wasn’t more than 7.2% with all the increased seasonal food costs due to bad weather..maybe that’s still to come?

I reckon they will go with 0.75 pt increase as overall inflation still way to high and domestic inflation will prove very sticky imho.

I think I read somewhere the fuel tax and public transports price reductions make about a 0.5% deduction to inflation and that’s about to come back on so inflation gets a +0.5% boost towards next result.

[bull....]

RBNZ will stick to plan i reckon and keep raising

[alokdhir]

RBNZ will stick to plan i reckon and keep raising

No one is saying they will stop ...BNZ's view is that its not going as high as thought before ...There base case is 50 + 25 +25 maybe ....

[bull....]

No one is saying they will stop ...BNZ's view is that its not going as high as thought before ...There base case is 50 + 25 +25 maybe ....

you rate BNZ view ?
markets not listening to central banks

[alokdhir]

you rate BNZ view ?
markets not listening to central banks

Historically BNZ research has a proven track records for better forecasts ...but still its just forecasts only ...so

[Muse]

No one is saying they will stop ...BNZ's view is that its not going as high as thought before ...There base case is 50 + 25 +25 maybe ....


IMO the terminal rate is the easier part of the puzzle and at this point I don't think its overly important where it stops +/- 50bps... the harder part is how long will rates persist, will it be a plateau or will it be undulating after the peak. The labour market is still incredibly tight so that'll be the bellwether for me. Recent generations of the population, lawmakers, investors and even some of the RBNZ staff don't have a whole lot of experience with battling inflation. The whole expectation has been until lately that a couple rate hikes would fix the job and it'd come right down which has proven incredibly naïve and inconsistent with history. there are many decision makers responsible for fiscal / monetary policy that will declare mission accomplished when CPI hits (say) 5-6% and start bringing out the fiscal stimulus and dropping interest rates which if the labour market is still tight could just see inflation rebound and we have a years upon years of high rates. a whole lot of unknowns. Fed staff are people who are as imperfect as the rest of us and what ought to happen rarely nicely fits with what ought to happen with the benefit of hindsight

[alokdhir]

IMO the terminal rate is the easier part of the puzzle and at this point I don't think its overly important where it stops +/- 50bps... the harder part is how long will rates persist, will it be a plateau or will it be undulating after the peak. The labour market is still incredibly tight so that'll be the bellwether for me. Recent generations of the population, lawmakers, investors and even some of the RBNZ staff don't have a whole lot of experience with battling inflation. The whole expectation has been until lately that a couple rate hikes would fix the job and it'd come right down which has proven incredibly naïve and inconsistent with history. there are many decision makers responsible for fiscal / monetary policy that will declare mission accomplished when CPI hits (say) 5-6% and start bringing out the fiscal stimulus and dropping interest rates which if the labour market is still tight could just see inflation rebound and we have a years upon years of high rates. a whole lot of unknowns. Fed staff are people who are as imperfect as the rest of us and what ought to happen rarely nicely fits with what ought to happen with the benefit of hindsight

Agree with your thoughts and highlighting the various moving targets ahead ...I agree no one can actually nail it but some do better job to give their advise better credibility ...thats the case with BNZ Research imo ...they also have a base view that inflation will come off fast when middle level recession hits by end of this year ...they dont have much faith in NZ economy holding up thus propping labour market thus inflation ...they seem to think it will melt very fast in front of even 5.25% OCR on hold for 6 months ...now we will see what actually happens by end of year .

BTW labour market reports are lagging indicator of economy while business confidence etc can be considered leading ...

Labour market trouble is a very Politically Unpalatable situation especially when u have a new PM of Labour Party in an election year ...good chance they will try to force RBNZ to falter ...that will be terrible for NZ people as a whole but especially for the have nots ...

Post covid with public sentiment and emotions and responses so based on " Life is short " mentality that its almost impossible to have any control on their wallets even sensible ones which makes me wonder rates need go higher this time till people actually dont have money in wallet to make any choices regarding spending it ...but that will cause terrible hardships and law and order problems to mange ...so politics may decide inflation is lesser evil ...also Inflate your way out of historic debt thought also support that easier way out thinking ...

[winner69]

As I said the other day the outlook for the economy (esp residential building) is bad enough Orr should now stop hiking rates….but with a vision fixed on the rear vision mirror Orr will deliver a few more sizeable hikes. Orr will do overdo the hikes. Hence my suggestion that 6% is possible.?..but unlikely

Too late in starting to raise rates and he’s still behind the curve

Whatever high inflation is here to stay for some time

[Rawz]

As I said the other day the outlook for the economy (esp residential building) is bad enough Orr should now stop hiking rates….but with a vision fixed on the rear vision mirror Orr will deliver a few more sizeable hikes. Orr will do overdo the hikes. Hence my suggestion that 6% is possible.?..but unlikely

Too late in starting to raise rates and he’s still behind the curve

Whatever high inflation is here to stay for some time

I agree. he will go too far.

In my line of work i am already seeing a noticeable drop off in economic activity and anecdotal evidence from conversations with customers is things are slowing down because of high cost of borrowing + all anybody ever talks about is the coming recession so nobody is doing any capital expenditure.

2023 could be tough for some.

all good, need a break, its been 110% for a number of years now

[nztx]

I agree. he will go too far.

In my line of work i am already seeing a noticeable drop off in economic activity and anecdotal evidence from conversations with customers is things are slowing down because of high cost of borrowing + all anybody ever talks about is the coming recession so nobody is doing any capital expenditure.

2023 could be tough for some.

all good, need a break, its been 110% for a number of years now


Seeing the same from a range of sectors here too ..

and that's before Govt's most recent great Transport Rort & RUC UP hits
to go round and round in price of just about everything you can name ;)

[winner69]

I missed guru business reporter Katie Bradford on the TV news tonight ……did she say the worst of over and inflation was beaten?

[nztx]

I missed guru business reporter Katie Bradford on the TV news tonight ……did she say the worst of over and inflation was beaten?


'beaten' might be the wrong word to use - winner :)

[bull....]

IMO the terminal rate is the easier part of the puzzle and at this point I don't think its overly important where it stops +/- 50bps... the harder part is how long will rates persist, will it be a plateau or will it be undulating after the peak. The labour market is still incredibly tight so that'll be the bellwether for me. Recent generations of the population, lawmakers, investors and even some of the RBNZ staff don't have a whole lot of experience with battling inflation. The whole expectation has been until lately that a couple rate hikes would fix the job and it'd come right down which has proven incredibly naïve and inconsistent with history. there are many decision makers responsible for fiscal / monetary policy that will declare mission accomplished when CPI hits (say) 5-6% and start bringing out the fiscal stimulus and dropping interest rates which if the labour market is still tight could just see inflation rebound and we have a years upon years of high rates. a whole lot of unknowns. Fed staff are people who are as imperfect as the rest of us and what ought to happen rarely nicely fits with what ought to happen with the benefit of hindsight

the how long inflation will persist is the part the equity market is betting on it is defeated.
gold market the way it is going higher now is probably due to weakening dollar and central bank demand but if it stays high for extended time is that because it believes inflation is staying higher for longer ?

[alokdhir]

Today got message from ASB Securities that margin lending rates going up from today ...wow ...its gone from 3.95% to 8.6% already and still some upside left ...floating rate may top 10% soon !!!!! Thats some change so fast ...imagine same happening to home mortgages ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brings-tears-to-my-eyes-family-consider-selling-after-2500-monthly-interest-rate-rise/LGT6FRARRZAELKHDWVHJJYDIHE/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brings-tears-to-my-eyes-family-consider-selling-after-2500-monthly-interest-rate-rise/LGT6FRARRZAELKHDWVHJJYDIHE/)

[Rawz]

Today got message from ASB Securities that margin lending rates going up from today ...wow ...its gone from 3.95% to 8.6% already and still some upside left ...floating rate may top 10% soon !!!!! Thats some change so fast ...imagine same happening to home mortgages ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brings-tears-to-my-eyes-family-consider-selling-after-2500-monthly-interest-rate-rise/LGT6FRARRZAELKHDWVHJJYDIHE/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brings-tears-to-my-eyes-family-consider-selling-after-2500-monthly-interest-rate-rise/LGT6FRARRZAELKHDWVHJJYDIHE/)

I feel sorry for this Nelson family but only a little. Seems to be blaming everyone else but himself.

I love it when people hate on the banks and complain that they make too much money. I’m like if you think they are creaming it get on the gravy train and become an owner- buy their shares.. normally they look back at ya with a confused look on their face

[causecelebre]

I feel sorry for this Nelson family but only a little. Seems to be blaming everyone else but himself.

I love it when people hate on the banks and complain that they make too much money. I’m like if you think they are creaming it get on the gravy train and become an owner- buy their shares.. normally they look back at ya with a confused look on their face

I read that article as well. It occurred to me they leveraged themselves to the eye ball without self stress testing their ability to pay. If you thought interest rates were going to stay sub 3% forever then you are idiot. They only have themselves to blame.

[Dlownz]

I read that article as well. It occurred to me they leveraged themselves to the eye ball without self stress testing their ability to pay. If you thought interest rates were going to stay sub 3% forever then you are idiot. They only have themselves to blame.

Agree. While it was good times with low rates. I started at 7.8%. Followed by 1 year at 9.3%. And it then slowly came down.
At the mo I'm at 5.85% and its about whst I was use to for awhile besides those few years of extremely cheap rates.
Have to adjust and change budgets make cuts etc. I haven't cut my streaming yet or nz heard sub 😂. But everything had gone up

[alokdhir]

I feel sorry for this Nelson family but only a little. Seems to be blaming everyone else but himself.

I love it when people hate on the banks and complain that they make too much money. I’m like if you think they are creaming it get on the gravy train and become an owner- buy their shares.. normally they look back at ya with a confused look on their face

Not everyone is super smart like u mate and not everyone is born privileged or got great understanding of financial markets ...Yes its easy for us to say they shud blame themselves but in a perfect society we look after all thus it remains perfect ...otherwise all goes to S..t soon ...

Thats why I think its Govt's duty to form policies which trys to take away extremeness in housing markets and causing pain to financially innocent and naive people ...let the smart people like Rawz play share markets but not let them compete unequally in basic fields like housing ...as survival of the fittest will make sure Rawz will have it all from them in no time ...lol One great leader justified brilliance as " genetic accident " ...so advocated equality by not making some basic things competitive ...

[Entrep]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/crypto-panic-at-silvergate-spawns-a-new-breed-of-bank-run?leadSource=uverify%20wall

The death throes of crypto - only manipulators, mugs and dumbos left in the crypto gutter.

An excellent indication that inflection point for financials market is not that far off.

Death throes:

14439

[Rawz]

Not everyone is super smart like u mate and not everyone is born privileged or got great understanding of financial markets ...Yes its easy for us to say they shud blame themselves but in a perfect society we look after all thus it remains perfect ...otherwise all goes to S..t soon ...

Thats why I think its Govt's duty to form policies which trys to take away extremeness in housing markets and causing pain to financially innocent and naive people ...let the smart people like Rawz play share markets but not let them compete unequally in basic fields like housing ...as survival of the fittest will make sure Rawz will have it all from them in no time ...lol One great leader justified brilliance as " genetic accident " ...so advocated equality by not making some basic things competitive ...

Yeah i agree with all that. But come on take some ownership as well..

to service their $1m+ original mortgage they would have both had to be on $100k plus salaries so they are doing above avg, one would assume they understood the risks of rising rates better than the average person

i do feel for the true workers in our economy like the truck driver + officer worker mum and dad families. these need protection from themselves

[sb9]

We're on our own today, no guidance from ASX being closed for Australia Day. Probably they needed that break after that shocking hot inflation of 7.8%, which came in much higher than consensus. Proving to be interesting 2023 at least for us two neighboring countries.

[dobby41]

I read that article as well. It occurred to me they leveraged themselves to the eye ball without self stress testing their ability to pay. If you thought interest rates were going to stay sub 3% forever then you are idiot. They only have themselves to blame.

They got a $1mil mortgage in Nelson - I'm sure that wasn't necessary at the time (ie the average is below that).
Last year they fixed for another year - why not 2 or 5?
Bad decisions are no one else's fault.

[Bobdn]

So the Australian market is now in a Raging Bull market - check the charts of NZX's OZY; MZY; ASD; and my personal favourtite ASR - which reached an all time high yesterday.

EMF.NZX and EUR.NZX are grinding nicely higher.

USF.NZX (ie Vanguards VOO which invests in the S&P 500 index) is down less than 5 per cent over the last year. USV. NZX which includes Berkshire, Chevron, Exxon in its top 10 is UP 4 per cent over the last year. APA (Asia Pacific market) is pretty much even from a year ago.

It really doesnt feel like the worst bear market for decades.....

Being lazy and long is so relaxing. Enough posting, I'm going back to Call of Duty on the Xbox Series X.

[percy]

https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-ziiiykl-yupddjlly-o/

[bull....]

So the Australian market is now in a Raging Bull market - check the charts of NZX's OZY; MZY; ASD; and my personal favourtite ASR - which reached an all time high yesterday.

EMF.NZX and EUR.NZX are grinding nicely higher.

USF.NZX (ie Vanguards VOO which invests in the S&P 500 index) is down less than 5 per cent over the last year. USV. NZX which includes Berkshire, Chevron, Exxon in its top 10 is UP 4 per cent over the last year. APA (Asia Pacific market) is pretty much even from a year ago.

It really doesnt feel like the worst bear market for decades.....

Being lazy and long is so relaxing. Enough posting, I'm going back to Call of Duty on the Xbox Series X.

asx nearly at all time high's ... who would have thought that considering us markets performed as they did last yr

[Hoop]

asx nearly at all time high's ... who would have thought that considering us markets performed as they did last yr

Not only Ozzie ..FTSE (England) CAC (France) IBEX (Spain) to name a few stock exchanges, they all are reaching close to or new record highs. Proof that the media doesn't just inform the facts of the day..but informs "expert opinion", mass sentiment, and predictions for the near future affecting the way people think and decide. An example.. sudden raising of interest rates can force Equities into a Bear Market Cycle

We are so influenced by media commentary that unless you are constantly looking at the charts (like I do) and/or live on another planet you can end up with a surprise contrary to what you think was happening...and as an investor a missed opportunity.

The AORDs chart below shows the index never reached the Official Bear Market status (>20%)
With this hindsight we could be forgiven in questioning what all the media drama was about in 2022.

Being a chartist my sentiment for most stock exchanges became optimistic on the first day of 2023. (NZX included)..How long I remain optimist depends on the markets actions..not medias opinion of the near future...Still cautious though.

14442

[blackie]

thanks Hoop
always love your charts and comments

[ratkin]

Not only Ozzie ..FTSE (England) CAC (France) IBEX (Spain) to name a few stock exchanges, they all are reaching close to or new record highs. Proof that the media doesn't just inform the facts of the day..but informs "expert opinion", mass sentiment, and predictions for the near future affecting the way people think and decide. An example.. sudden raising of interest rates can force Equities into a Bear Market Cycle

We are so influenced by media commentary that unless you are constantly looking at the charts (like I do) and/or live on another planet you can end up with a surprise contrary to what you think was happening...and as an investor a missed opportunity.

The AORDs chart below shows the index never reached the Official Bear Market status (>20%)
With this hindsight we could be forgiven in questioning what all the media drama was about in 2022.

Being a chartist my sentiment for most stock exchanges became optimistic on the first day of 2023. (NZX included)..How long I remain optimist depends on the markets actions..not medias opinion of the near future...Still cautious though.

14442


On your chart you say most were expecting a lower low, and the fact if didnt happen was a positive. Surely in light of your other comments regarding the media, what most were expecting is totally irrelevant, therefore has no bearing on the chart.

[alokdhir]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Hoop https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=977341#post977341)
Update of the 26th August Chart.
Hindsight:.... Bear Market correction (sucker rally) petered out at the 4800 major resistance thereby keeping its bear status.
...................The correction was a large one and created enough positive sentiment to persuade investors to re-enter the market.

Where to now ? :....When the index broke the 4600 support a target price of 4400 was set..That mean't the 4500 support was under threat. If 4500 support failed (which it did) there is no charted support at 4400 so it seems the 4200 comes into focus (the previous low point).
The NZ50C status is Bear so revisiting 4200 has to be considered as a real possibility. 4200 is a strong support level as it has a historic support point back in September 2018 (yes...the majority of long termers that don't beat the market, their capital is now back to what it was in beginning 2019...As we chartists say famously said on Sharetrader by my Mentor Phaedrus "The market giveth the market takes away".
Although 4200 area is strong there are good odds it may break.. It has to be remembered that the market is in a Bear Market Cycle and the DOW Theory (https://www.robertwcolby.com/dowtheory.html) is operating (lower highs lower lows with 3 stages).

Could 4200 be the bottom?
Who knows...but from my perception the odds of 4200 being the bottom is not good, investor sentiment although negative, it's near future is still too rosy (optimistic), (VIX needs to be 40+ for a period of time (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui)) they are receiving shocks but there is no major panic yet so the DOW Theory monitors says No...My favourite (nearly 100% reliable) Duck is Copper (https://www.mining.com/markets/commodity/copper/)and it says No (its still trending down) I have about 30 ducks (indicators) and they are not lining up in a row yet so the majority of ducks say no.
I will repost the ducks on Sharetrader shortly.
It seems the NZ50C bear market cycle is in its middle stages and moving more slowly than average.

Attachment 14201 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=14201)



Was not just media ...many experts and analysts and Gurus here were looking for newer bottoms and Bear market continuing ....I am not saying its end of it but still many TA experts becoming positive shud mean something ....anticipating things your way not always happen ...when all or most including TA experts become positive is the most danger time ...not from TA angle from gut feel angle ....:D

[Rawz]

Probably a few investors out there still in majority cash and have a squeaky bum right now

[Bjauck]

Probably a few investors out there still in majority cash and have a squeaky bum right now I am not sure I know exactly what you mean. However it Depends on the stage of life they are at. If they have had decades of their investments enjoying capital appreciation, then being cashed up may be the best position for them. Is it good for mind and body always to chase every last drop of potential gains?

[troyvdh]

Bjauck.So so true.The sharemarket and property market ...has so many layers....indeed your last sentence sums it up so nicely.cheers

[winner69]

I heard a guy on the telly say the CNNBusiness Fear & Greed Index is back into Greed territory

No idea if this is good or bad but suppose it means punters are spending that mountain on cash which has been on the sideline

….but there are sellers eh …..where is thecash they are getting going

[JBmurc]

I heard a guy on the telly say the CNNBusiness Fear & Greed Index is back into Greed territory

No idea if this is good or bad but suppose it means punters are spending that mountain on cash which has been on the sideline

….but there are sellers eh …..where is thecash they are getting going

well how many investors went to CASH over the 2H22 esp end of the half ... then as they are sitting on the sidelines watching those fully invested making some great rebound trades ..

their FEAR soon turns back to GREED >>> I read so many posters online talking up how smart they were to be fully CASHED up aka massive crash coming from rate increases CHINA lockdowns Russia etc... in the likes of the ASX SEPT lows

I now see the ASX200 up 16.4% !!!!

[Baa_Baa]

well how many investors went to CASH over the 2H22 esp end of the half ... then as they are sitting on the sidelines watching those fully invested making some great rebound trades ..

their FEAR soon turns back to GREED >>> I read so many posters online talking up how smart they were to be fully CASHED up aka massive crash coming from rate increases CHINA lockdowns Russia etc... in the likes of the ASX SEPT lows

I now see the ASX200 up 16.4% !!!!

Ironically, the NZX50 Capital market bottomed in JUNE 2022 following a 26% fall and is now over 12% up from there. The recovery appears to have been driven by rotation or reinvestment into a relatively small number of oversold large cap blue chips.

[mshierlaw]

Game of trades shows how influx of money into s&p500 ATM is not institutional money.
https://youtu.be/VHa8ghYau4Um

What does that mean for us ?????? They seem to be suggesting a sucker rally.

[winner69]

All the fix up stuff in upper North Island will cause inflationary pressures

[moka]

Game of trades shows how influx of money into s&p500 ATM is not institutional money.
https://youtu.be/VHa8ghYau4Um

What does that mean for us ?????? They seem to be suggesting a sucker rally.Yes, some commentators in the US say there will be very strong bear market rallies of 20% (sucker rallies) this year. One reason is investors have had years of QE which has pushed the markets up no matter what, and the rising tide of money has lifted all ships, but the smart money and most institutions know that inflation, high interest rates and probable recession has changed that. However, some investors will continue to buy the dip, and some will be so badly burnt they will never want to have anything to do with the sharemarket again. Stock picking is the new mantra now, or active rather than passive investing, according to some experts.

[bull....]

Not only Ozzie ..FTSE (England) CAC (France) IBEX (Spain) to name a few stock exchanges, they all are reaching close to or new record highs. Proof that the media doesn't just inform the facts of the day..but informs "expert opinion", mass sentiment, and predictions for the near future affecting the way people think and decide. An example.. sudden raising of interest rates can force Equities into a Bear Market Cycle

We are so influenced by media commentary that unless you are constantly looking at the charts (like I do) and/or live on another planet you can end up with a surprise contrary to what you think was happening...and as an investor a missed opportunity.

The AORDs chart below shows the index never reached the Official Bear Market status (>20%)
With this hindsight we could be forgiven in questioning what all the media drama was about in 2022.

Being a chartist my sentiment for most stock exchanges became optimistic on the first day of 2023. (NZX included)..How long I remain optimist depends on the markets actions..not medias opinion of the near future...Still cautious though.

14442

nice chart hoop , even though asx is at near all time highs unless it breaks upwards convincingly , i still consider it a trading range from your two circles to your line at the top.
feb isnt great seasonally both on asx and sp500 so be interesting what happens

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bear-market-unlike-anything-ive-seen-since-starting-on-the-street-in-1980-says-short-selling-legend-jim-chanos-11675161730?mod=home-page

This shud please Bull and Winner too ...lol

Just as I thought when most become positive the trouble will start ...:p

[bull....]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bear-market-unlike-anything-ive-seen-since-starting-on-the-street-in-1980-says-short-selling-legend-jim-chanos-11675161730?mod=home-page

This shud please Bull and Winner too ...lol

Just as I thought when most become positive the trouble will start ...:p

markets having big jan

[causecelebre]

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/119396/statistics-new-zealand-says-unemployment-rate-has-risen-34-33-it-was-widely

TL;DR Unemployment rises from 3.3% to 3.4% and wage growth down from 8.6% to 8.3%

[winner69]

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/119396/statistics-new-zealand-says-unemployment-rate-has-risen-34-33-it-was-widely

TL;DR Unemployment rises from 3.3% to 3.4% and wage growth down from 8.6% to 8.3%

Love the “Shock rise in unemployment…” and “..shock slower wage growth” emblazoned across the top of that story

Floods etc and now bad economic news ……what next

Might even stoping increasing OCR ….as should be the case

[Aaron]

Love the “Shock rise in unemployment…” and “..shock slower wage growth” emblazoned across the top of that story

Floods etc and now bad economic news ……what next

Might even stoping increasing OCR ….as should be the case

Is it a shock? Really? Immigration up net 6,000 monthly.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/high-wage-growth-low-uneployment-expected-in-reserve-bank-report/ar-AA16Vgmg?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=96d160c43eda4041b156cee2bc9e60ea

You don't have to believe me just ask ASB senior economist Mark Smith who said the easing market would be more pronounced later in the year.

" pending recession for the NZ economy should result in firms scaling back their demand for labour."

That along with growing numbers of immigrants would ease labour market pressures and help the RBNZ's battle against inflation.

"As such, we expect the New Zealand unemployment rate to climb from record lows and approach 5 percent by the end of this year. This should temper wage increases and significantly dampen pressures on core inflation," Smith said.

When an economist says core inflation I assume they means "bad" wage inflation. Investors like Winner69 are hoping the immigrants suppress wages enough so that interest rates can be cut and we can get back to "good" asset price inflation.

[Hoop]

On your chart you say most were expecting a lower low, and the fact if didnt happen was a positive. Surely in light of your other comments regarding the media, what most were expecting is totally irrelevant, therefore has no bearing on the chart.
Thats right..no bearing on the chart...that is the problem unfortunately many people opinions are swayed by the media..Most people opinions expected 2022 to get worse as the year went on. In hindsight the chart proved those opinions were irrevelant..yet strangely people opinions remain bias towards the media looking forward, rather than charts which record the actual fact.

[BlackPeter]

Thats right..no bearing on the chart...that is the problem unfortunately many people opinions are swayed by the media..Most people opinions expected 2022 to get worse as the year went on. In hindsight the chart proved those opinions were irrevelant..yet strangely people opinions remain bias towards the media looking forward that of charts which record the actual fact.

Lets face it - it is not possible to predict the future behaviour of a chaotic system, even if one understands the parameters determining this behaviour. While short term predictions do have still some accuracy based on some basic physical rules (like inertia), mid and long term forecasts do not work. Weather forecasts are a good example for that - while the prediction for the coming day can be rather accurate, this accuracy drops with every additional day - and after ten days or so the forecast is not longer correlated with the what's happening in the future.

Forecasting the weather (first order chaotic system) is difficult and for longer than a handful of days impossible.

Forecasting he economy (a second order chaotic system) is still more difficult (to avoid the word impossible). The big issues in a second order chaotic system is that the system participants change their behaviour based on their observation of the system. The problem is now to predict the behaviour of each of these informed system participants and what it might mean for the system and at the same time having all these participants changing their behaviour again based on what they observe ... This might work, if all system participants do have the same interest, but tell me about markets ....

This explains the big impact of any information these system participants can use to form their decisions: the actions (and the talk) of politicians, RB governors, general news .... and the way the media convey above. All this shapes the knowledge (or perceived knowledge) of the system participants and with that clearly triggers reactions of the system (even not always as one would expect ...).

Even if we all seem to be able to explain the past, nobody can predict the future :) ;

[percy]

I regularly use charts.Moving averages and relative strength,often help timing when buying or selling.
However they are just another tool for us to use.
Last year I had three shares in Aussie that were going nowhere.Well two were fast becoming dead ducks, while the other was going tracking sideways.
Had I been doing a spring clean,or needed funds they would have been gone..
Then BINGO all three were take over targets,and I was well rewarded..They were MSL,PTB and PTG.

[percy]

https://smallcaps.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ac3a9fdb691a7372f8b04b033&id=1a597d9d53&e=6c1ad5cc63

[Hoop]

Was not just media ...many experts and analysts and Gurus here were looking for newer bottoms and Bear market continuing ....I am not saying its end of it but still many TA experts becoming positive shud mean something ....anticipating things your way not always happen ...when all or most including TA experts become positive is the most danger time ...not from TA angle from gut feel angle ....https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/smile2grin.gif

We get to see Experts, "experts", analysists, professional shorters opinions via the media..So these people are components of media..You are media I am media as we all express our skills and opinions to others via a media source. Media at any give moment expresses everything from extremes at either end of the spectrum and everything in between..Like everything this spectrum can be charted and it would (in perfect world) resemble a Bell curve pattern with the media majority (top of the bell) being in the centre between the 2 extremes. We all know there is no such thing never as perfect world and the world is always changing thereby shifting and warping that bell shape curve...I suspect in the middle of last year the market media bell curve was skewed away from centre heading towards the bear sediment extreme...Hence the bulk of the people making up the media expected the market to deteriorate..

TA people are positive at the moment because the past up to the present has seen bullish market data results which are fact not fiction. If the rest of the week sees big drops then TAer's will certainly be changing from positive to negative.
Yes TAers do anticipate the near future (as we all do) but we use indicators signals to anticipate, not individual/group opinions and emotions (emotion kills).. Using trends and momentum analysis is useful and it shows where the market is headed during satisfactory market conditions. A good example of the power of trend and momentum is the Titanic reversing its engines but due to its size was unable to stop going forward after sighting the iceberg.Public opinion would assume that reversing gear and accelerate would put the ship into reverse motion as simple theory says that..

Unfortunately the public only focus on the dramatic media factors to analyse the outcome... and choose to ignore, or are unaware of other factors in play when making a prediction based on theory.

Mixed up in all this are the "Experts" in their field that make a lot of money...When I see media news article about an Expert predicting crash, I instantly ask myself the reason why an expert making heaps of money needs to put his reputation at risk..My answer is (I'm a cynic) he uses the media to cause a market reaction or sutally change/reinforce market sentiment..If I was a shorter I would be spreading as much bias pessimistic opinion as I could.
Alokdhir quote " ...when all or most including TA experts become positive is the most danger time..." There is a successful discipline, a form of Contrarian investing..Warren Buffet is good at it.."... Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-1986-letter-being-160854144.html)
q

[Hoop]

Lets face it - it is not possible to predict the future behaviour of a chaotic system, even if one understands the parameters determining this behaviour. While short term predictions do have still some accuracy based on some basic physical rules (like inertia), mid and long term forecasts do not work. Weather forecasts are a good example for that - while the prediction for the coming day can be rather accurate, this accuracy drops with every additional day - and after ten days or so the forecast is not longer correlated with the what's happening in the future.

Forecasting the weather (first order chaotic system) is difficult and for longer than a handful of days impossible.

Forecasting he economy (a second order chaotic system) is still more difficult (to avoid the word impossible). The big issues in a second order chaotic system is that the system participants change their behaviour based on their observation of the system. The problem is now to predict the behaviour of each of these informed system participants and what it might mean for the system and at the same time having all these participants changing their behaviour again based on what they observe ... This might work, if all system participants do have the same interest, but tell me about markets ....

This explains the big impact of any information these system participants can use to form their decisions: the actions (and the talk) of politicians, RB governors, general news .... and the way the media convey above. All this shapes the knowledge (or perceived knowledge) of the system participants and with that clearly triggers reactions of the system (even not always as one would expect ...).

Even if we all seem to be able to explain the past, nobody can predict the future :) ;

Well said BP.
stock markets shares are Second Order Chaotic systems. TA uses this to produce probabilities of a happening. The effects of systems participants behaviour can be monitored such as sentiment indicators, trading behaviour, trending behaviour, demand variables, etc. Note:- these are short term variables in play (second order) making it very hard to predict their future variable value at a certain future point in time.

Interesting to hear (in the media:rolleyes:) that Super computers are getting powerful exponentially, so in a few years time the at present weather accuracy rate for 3 days may be extended to a week or more.

[percy]

Well said BP.
stock markets shares are Second Order Chaotic systems. TA uses this to produce probabilities of a happening. The effects of systems participants behaviour can be monitored such as sentiment indicators, trading behaviour, trending behaviour, demand variables, etc. Note:- these are short term variables in play (second order) making it very hard to predict their future variable value at a certain future point in time.

Interesting to hear (in the media:rolleyes:) that Super computers are getting powerful exponentially, so in a few years time the at present weather accuracy rate for 3 days may be extended to a week or more.

Aeeris Limited [AER[ is an Australia-based company that is engaged in geospatial data business. The Company’s Early Warning Network (EWN) system and geographic notification and information system (GNIS) technology platform ingests and maps live data from multiple sources regarding severe weather, fire, traffic, and other geospatial hazards. It provides protective asset and location-aware early warning services for severe weather, all natural hazards and identified threats to business operations. It develops and provides systems, tools and mobile applications to reduce risk and improve safety. Its technology allows to track and monitor numbers of users, assets and operations. The Company's services include regional alerts, location alerts, custom observational alerts, custom forecast alerts, branded alerting, forecasting, GIS platform, worker zone management, EMBARGO, application programming interface (API), GNIS, climate risk platform and flood monitoring.

[Hoop]

Aeeris Limited [AER[ is an Australia-based company that is engaged in geospatial data business. The Company’s Early Warning Network (EWN) system and geographic notification and information system (GNIS) technology platform ingests and maps live data from multiple sources regarding severe weather, fire, traffic, and other geospatial hazards. It provides protective asset and location-aware early warning services for severe weather, all natural hazards and identified threats to business operations. It develops and provides systems, tools and mobile applications to reduce risk and improve safety. Its technology allows to track and monitor numbers of users, assets and operations. The Company's services include regional alerts, location alerts, custom observational alerts, custom forecast alerts, branded alerting, forecasting, GIS platform, worker zone management, EMBARGO, application programming interface (API), GNIS, climate risk platform and flood monitoring.
Amazing ..eh Percy.. 10 years ago this networking for the masses would have been only seen on sci-fi movies.
At this technological speed it is hard to imagine 10 years from now

[percy]

Amazing ..eh Percy.. 10 years ago this networking for the masses would have been only seen on sci-fi movies.
At this technological speed it is hard to imagine 10 years from now

Hopefully medical science will advance enough to keep me alive and kicking.[old age].lol.

[Hoop]

With this advancement in Techology.. I sometimes wonder if the "Powers of Be" (Central Banks, huge private organisations, etc) are at the beginnings of succeeding to smooth the bumps out (crude managing) of economies, and perhaps any other relevant networked market associated to the running of the economy. Could this be the reason why we haven't seen a destructive correction in the 1st world global sharemarkets like we used to see in the past..or is it yet to come?

[Hoop]

Hopefully medical science will advance enough to keep me alive and kicking.[old age].lol.

Yeah..join the club..

Some notable people, John Mauldin and others are practicing very healthy lifestyles and have a gene bank account..I think the next industrial revolution (IV) segment will be medical/biotech industry..Covid has exposed how badly the Medical market is performing, so I expect to see some disruptions (maybe a good area to buy shares in)

I watch Ray Kurzwell. He is a well known futurist with over 80% prediction rate, so what he says (https://lifearchitect.ai/kurzweil/) will probably happen..Impressive enough to be hired by Google..He will be 75 years old on the 12th February..He also practices a healthy lifestyle..hoping to live long enough to catch the life extension era

[percy]

Davos Man,by Peter S Goodman.isbn.978 0 06 323934 0
A bit of a wake up call for me.

The history of the last half century in America, Europe, and other major economies is in large part the story of wealth flowing upward. The most affluent people emerged from capitalism's triumph in the Cold War to loot the peace, depriving governments of the resources needed to serve their people, and leaving them tragically unprepared for the worst pandemic in a century. Drawing on decades of experience covering the global economy, award-winning journalist Peter S. Goodman profiles five representative "Davos Men" members of the billionaire class-chronicling how their shocking exploitation of the global pandemic has hastened a fifty-year trend of wealth centralization. Alongside this reporting, Goodman delivers textured portraits of those caught in Davos Man's wake, including a former steelworker in the American Midwest, a Bangladeshi migrant in Qatar, a Seattle doctor on the front lines of the fight against COVID, blue-collar workers in the tenements of Buenos Aires, an African immigrant in Sweden, a textile manufacturer in Italy, an Amazon warehouse employee in New York City, and more. Goodman's rollicking and revelatory expose of the global billionaire class reveals their hidden impact on nearly every aspect of modern society: widening wealth inequality, the rise of anti-democratic nationalism, the shrinking opportunity to earn a livable wage, the vulnerabilities of our health-care systems, access to affordable housing, unequal taxation, and even the quality of the shirt on your back. Meticulously reported yet compulsively readable, Davos Man is an essential read for anyone concerned about economic justice, the capacity of societies to grapple with their greatest challenges, and the sanctity of representative government.

[alokdhir]

Lets face it - it is not possible to predict the future behaviour of a chaotic system, even if one understands the parameters determining this behaviour. While short term predictions do have still some accuracy based on some basic physical rules (like inertia), mid and long term forecasts do not work. Weather forecasts are a good example for that - while the prediction for the coming day can be rather accurate, this accuracy drops with every additional day - and after ten days or so the forecast is not longer correlated with the what's happening in the future.

Forecasting the weather (first order chaotic system) is difficult and for longer than a handful of days impossible.

Forecasting he economy (a second order chaotic system) is still more difficult (to avoid the word impossible). The big issues in a second order chaotic system is that the system participants change their behaviour based on their observation of the system. The problem is now to predict the behaviour of each of these informed system participants and what it might mean for the system and at the same time having all these participants changing their behaviour again based on what they observe ... This might work, if all system participants do have the same interest, but tell me about markets ....

This explains the big impact of any information these system participants can use to form their decisions: the actions (and the talk) of politicians, RB governors, general news .... and the way the media convey above. All this shapes the knowledge (or perceived knowledge) of the system participants and with that clearly triggers reactions of the system (even not always as one would expect ...).

Even if we all seem to be able to explain the past, nobody can predict the future :) ;

I agree with u fully that we can chart the past but cant predict the future ....last time when Hoop wrote that good chance 4200 NZ50C will break as he said Dow theory working which is lower highs and lower low ....I said he has a bearish bias as he was anticipating or predicting market going down and making new low ...if anyone who had much faith in a Chartist he wud have stopped himself from buying reading that and wud have missed a golden chance ....but our mate Winner69 came to support his view as he also believed in charts more and anticipated new low with FPH reaching $ 10 ...lol

[causecelebre]

Fed raises 0.25. Remains hawkish

[winner69]

Fed raises 0.25. Remains hawkish


Market seemed to like them being hawkish

[bull....]

equities and bonds acting like its all over

[alokdhir]

equities and bonds acting like its all over

I think market is setting itself to trouble ahead ...if any signs of earning recession then see how it will reverse super fast ...maybe Q3 results it shud show ...but at present all are very happy including Mr Powell that inflation is coming down without much collateral damage ....collateral damage part is yet to be seen ...

But we keep going up like I wrote that 4200 can be reached in this over exuberance ....when I said most ie 80/20 bearish and got flak from perma bears here

[causecelebre]

equities and bonds acting like its all over

I don't blame them. J Powell tone is upbeat even if still a desire to raise rates

[bull....]

I don't blame them. J Powell tone is upbeat even if still a desire to raise rates

yep he see signs of its all over apart from he still needs labour market to drop some. didnt argue with reporter over conditions have loosened which is a big turnaround from last time

[bull....]

I think market is setting itself to trouble ahead ...if any signs of earning recession then see how it will reverse super fast ...maybe Q3 results it shud show ...but at present all are very happy including Mr Powell that inflation is coming down without much collateral damage ....collateral damage part is yet to be seen ...

But we keep going up like I wrote that 4200 can be reached in this over exuberance ....when I said most ie 80/20 bearish and got flak from perma bears here

im still expecting earnings to decline but how much is the question. job layoff's starting now which cushions the impact somewhat

[alokdhir]

im still expecting earnings to decline but how much is the question. job layoff's starting now which cushions the impact somewhat

Market at 4200 means Goldilocks best case market expecting ...we all know that doesn't happen easy ...but even then corrections wont be big as now people have more confidence to buy dips ...so most likely we are out of the woods for good for this cycle ...NZX may top 13000 in next few months with growth stocks leading ...all growth stocks are under owned as people went defensive so they go up easily on lack of selling ...MFT shud do something soon its peer JD HUNT is going great guns in US even after a poor trading update recently

[Bobdn]

Just catching up on the news, watching Bloomberg on YT. In an interview the CIO of Vanguard has just said that if you missed the 30 best days of the market going back to 1928, you reduce your long term returns by 50 per cent.

[Aaron]

Just catching up on the news, watching Bloomberg on YT. In an interview the CIO of Vanguard has just said that if you missed the 30 best days of the market going back to 1928, you reduce your long term returns by 50 per cent.

Your also 95 years old assuming you started investing as a 1 year old.

What about if you missed the worst 30 days? I am a glass half empty sort of a guy.

I was wondering why he would use 1928 as a starting point, I guess the crash was 1929 so I wonder if some blow off top days in 1928 get him to 50%. From what I read the run up to the great crash was a good time to be an investor. It was only afterwards that it was not as good.

[Bobdn]

There's a ton of work on missing the best days and worst days. The bottom line is that being fully invested, over the longer term, is a winning strategy and takes no effort. After a long enough time frame, 17 years, it's difficult not to make money. As always I'm talking whole market ETFs or indexes. And of course having emergency cash to get through difficult times is always a good idea.

My version of fully invested is around 80 per cent shares and 20 per cent bonds.

Check out Jeremy Siegel's "Stocks for the Long Run." It's an incredible book - the best money book I've read.

Seriously though I've convinced no one about the power of the share market over the years. Family and friends with their expensive high fee conservative kiwisaver funds ignore me.

[Aaron]

There's a ton of work on missing the best days and worst days. The bottom line is that being fully invested, over the longer term, is a winning strategy and takes no effort. After a long enough time frame, 17 years, it's difficult not to make money. As always I'm talking whole market ETFs or indexes. And of course having emergency cash to get through difficult times is always a good idea.

My version of fully invested is around 80 per cent shares and 20 per cent bonds.

Check out Jeremy Siegel's "Stocks for the Long Run." It's an incredible book - the best money book I've read.

Seriously though I've convinced no one about the power of the share market over the years. Family and friends with their expensive high fee conservative kiwisaver funds ignore me.

Hard to argue against as long as you have a 17 year time frame. 20% Bonds is not fully invested in the share market though. Interesting to read how bonds went badly last year with yields rising. It is almost as if the yield on an investment is not important anymore and the direction of interest rates being more important as no one is considering holding to maturity. It makes sense as yield is less than the inflation rate.

[Bobdn]

I had zero bonds in my accumulation phase. Now that I'm retired, I have some.

Retired very early, no pension or other sources of income for many years yet. I'm eating my own cooking.

[thebusinessman]

I'm eating my own cooking.

If I may, drinking your own champagne?

[Bobdn]

Or Value Instant Coffee from the local New World for $1.89 a packet ;)

[Aaron]

I had zero bonds in my accumulation phase. Now that I'm retired, I have some.

Retired very early, no pension or other sources of income for many years yet. I'm eating my own cooking.

Are you a FIRE investor? Financial Independence Retire Early. Our own NZ Mr Money Mustache.

[Bobdn]

Your Money or Your Life (more or less). This book preceded FIRE and MMM of course. MMM pays tribute to it on his webpage.

Now, when it was first published the book was all about T-Bills because they paid a handsome return. Later additions included shares.

[blackcap]

Are you a FIRE investor? Financial Independence Retire Early. Our own NZ Mr Money Mustache.

MMM is interesting. Been following him on and off for many years now. Don't think I have his discipline in me (I mean a beer at the pub with the boys is worth more than $ it costs) but the general concepts are good and many more could do something like that in their lives.

[Bobdn]

Yes good concepts. I don't have that discipline either. I just stick to a 4 per cent rule (actually 3.5 per cent) and adjust for inflation. I never go over budget. 4 per cent rule good for 30 years. 3.5 per cent good for 40 years.

[dobby41]

MMM is interesting. Been following him on and off for many years now. Don't think I have his discipline in me (I mean a beer at the pub with the boys is worth more than $ it costs) but the general concepts are good and many more could do something like that in their lives.

One of the issues I've always seen with the MMM type prescription is going without so much early for gain later - too many people die before they get to later.
I also have a problem with the 'live now and leave later to later' method.
A bit of balance is needed I think.

[Sideshow Bob]

Your Money or Your Life (more or less). This book preceded FIRE and MMM of course. MMM pays tribute to it on his webpage.

Now, when it was first published the book was all about T-Bills because they paid a handsome return. Later additions included shares.

Good on ya Bobdn. Kudos!! :)

[alokdhir]

After Powell statement and 25pips increase with sounding done and also acknowledging rates have started to work ....US 10 Y made new recent low of almost 3.337 ...with our resultant NZ 10Y following ....I am sure Growth stocks p/e expansion time has truly arrived with Nasdaq our performing Dow day after day

Good times are back ...will they stay or keep faltering ....it's getting clear to majority market participants that we have better chance with buying the dips now ...which can still get many ...2023 much better then 2022 for stocks at least ...Bonds are actually have more fun at the moment

[ratkin]

Yes good concepts. I don't have that discipline either. I just stick to a 4 per cent rule (actually 3.5 per cent) and adjust for inflation. I never go over budget. 4 per cent rule good for 30 years. 3.5 per cent good for 40 years.

My problem is I am addicted to accumulating, spending brings me out in a rash. Although inflation is taking my 4% recently

[bull....]

After Powell statement and 25pips increase with sounding done and also acknowledging rates have started to work ....US 10 Y made new recent low of almost 3.337 ...with our resultant NZ 10Y following ....I am sure Growth stocks p/e expansion time has truly arrived with Nasdaq our performing Dow day after day

Good times are back ...will they stay or keep faltering ....it's getting clear to majority market participants that we have better chance with buying the dips now ...which can still get many ...2023 much better then 2022 for stocks at least ...Bonds are actually have more fun at the moment

nasdaq playing catch up now as people rotate from industrials and powell giving his blessing.
DJT nearing all time highs too now
so in hindsight of last yr rising rates was just a story impacting nasdaq and by association sp500 and overseas markets for maybe half yr.

[winner69]

Jeez …. every US market index pushing through its upper Bollinger band while core inflation is still at 4.4-5.7%…..Fed won’t like that

[alokdhir]

Jeez …. every US market index pushing through its upper Bollinger band while core inflation is still at 4.4-5.7%…..Fed won’t like that

I think Bull and few more will hate it more ...But do people remember when I said all looking for new lows that we can go 4200 as the path of resistance was least on upside with most which is 80% positioned for downside ....Thanks for explaining at that time to doubters how I know it's 80/20 ....Deja Vu time mate :t_up:

Where to from here ...more up it goes then more chance we will have lots of Bull posts on the big way down ...:p

[bull....]

I think Bull and few more will hate it more ...But do people remember when I said all looking for new lows that we can go 4200 as the path of resistance was least on upside with most which is 80% positioned for downside ....Thanks for explaining at that time to doubters how I know it's 80/20 ....Deja Vu time mate :t_up:

Where to from here ...more up it goes then more chance we will have lots of Bull posts on the big way down ...:p

actually ive been spot on on the way down called nasdaq low perfectly at xmas , went neutral recently which means not short and have actually never been fully 100% cash at all
even family brought meta 2 mths ago now very happy

[alokdhir]

actually ive been spot on on the way down called nasdaq low perfectly at xmas , went neutral recently which means not short and have actually never been fully 100% cash at all
even family brought meta 2 mths ago now very happy

Well done mate ...I was just suggesting your kind of ride getting set up ....up to down kind u like most ....or u think market is stable around 4200 levels ...or maybe much ahead of itself for current time

[bull....]

Well done mate ...I was just suggesting your kind of ride getting set up ....up to down kind u like most ....or u think market is stable around 4200 levels ...or maybe much ahead of itself for current time

markets i follow

neutral most US markets still ( which means can play short or long ) still trading range sp500 up till 4300 my books
asx top of range might be breaking out mix of stocks this market
nzx broke symmetrical triangle start jan to upside , im now 120% invested nz market now stocks , looking to do some interest rate stuff soon to add to mix too

[alokdhir]

markets i follow

neutral most US markets still ( which means can play short or long ) still trading range sp500 up till 4300 my books
asx top of range might be breaking out mix of stocks this market
nzx broke symmetrical triangle start jan to upside , im now 120% invested nz market now stocks , looking to do some interest rate stuff soon to add to mix too

NZX u in index or in stocks ? If stocks then which are your picks mate ?

[bull....]

NZX u in index or in stocks ? If stocks then which are your picks mate ?

twr , fbu few others mainly buying beaten up value stuff even brought some tra last week odd and just sold my retirement stock i held for just couple weeks lol

[alokdhir]

twr , fbu few others mainly buying beaten up value stuff even brought some tra last week odd and just sold my retirement stock i held for just couple weeks lol

Thanks mate for sharing ...so u betting that beaten up stocks will catch with overall market ...also u 120% on NZX ...means u got 20% leverage also in ...tells your confidence of this breakout ...:t_up:

Me had been most positive on NZX all along as anticipated this TA signal from FA angle ....But happy to see Bull is on same side ...lets hope it stay that way ..lol

[bull....]

Thanks mate for sharing ...so u betting that beaten up stocks will catch with overall market ...also u 120% on NZX ...means u got 20% leverage also in ...tells your confidence of this breakout ...:t_up:

Me had been most positive on NZX all along as anticipated this TA signal from FA angle ....But happy to see Bull is on same side ...lets hope it stay that way ..lol

same side at moment but i always as you know i can change my mind all the time
yea you always mostly been positive so i hope you have been buying some of your fav's

[alokdhir]

same side at moment but i always as you know i can change my mind all the time
yea you always mostly been positive so i hope you have been buying some of your fav's

Yes ...I know u play both sides unlike me ...but I wrote I hope u stay on long side as markets show u soo ...difficult ask ...but maybe for few months

NZX will do very well this year imho

[nztx]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131127503/infometrics-predicts-long-recession-despite-glimmer-of-hope-over-interest-rates

Infometrics predicts long recession despite glimmer of hope over interest rates



The economy has entered a protracted period of recession, despite growing hopes among banks that interest rates may not need to rise as high as previously thought, according to a prominent forecaster.

Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said the research house expected “a prolonged contraction in the economy through until March 2024” as fixed mortgages roll-off and households grapple with higher interest rates.

He believed GDP data due out later this month and in May would show the economy went into recession in September and is forecasting only one quarter of positive growth in the six quarters between then and the start of the June 2024 quarter.

Slighter weaker-than-expected inflation and employment data has prompted all the major banks to trim their forecasts of how much the Reserve Bank will raise the official cash rate when it releases its next monetary policy statement on February 22.

[alokdhir]

markets i follow

neutral most US markets still ( which means can play short or long ) still trading range sp500 up till 4300 my books
asx top of range might be breaking out mix of stocks this market
nzx broke symmetrical triangle start jan to upside , im now 120% invested nz market now stocks , looking to do some interest rate stuff soon to add to mix too

Hey mate ...What is your target of NZX break out on the upside ...I believe u have a good knowledge of TA as u do lots of short term trading ...NZ50G can top 12800 in this run in your view ??

[FTG]

Starting to get a little carried away in the US.....time for a quick breather perhaps?

Overnight we saw the ALL-TIME record for daily volume in equity options. A total of ~70 million options, with Calls taking the Lion's share.

S & P 500 now kissing the strong ~ 4200 S/R line & Fib zone. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least a small retracement from here and then another crack to the upside.

[percy]

https://stockhead.cmail20.com/t/d-l-zikiduy-yupddjlly-p/

[alokdhir]

Wow wow Jobs report has made FED and markets jobs super difficult ...517K vs 185K and rest all parameters also much above expected .

Markets are or will realise soon that " No rate cuts " anytime soon ...economy is too strong on labour front to even talk of rate cuts in 2023 ...maybe mid 2024 !!!

" Higher for longer " theme fully reinforced ....5.25% and stays there for donkey years ...lol

Not necessarily bad for good stocks ...U may not get multiples expansion due to lower rates but will get better earnings expectations so strong companies will do better ...as no earnings recession coming !

[Valuegrowth]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-outlook-2023-experts-141100877.html#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWe%20feel%20that%2 0going%20into,their%20investments%20at%20lower%20p rices.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2023/02/01/how-0dte-options-will-cause-the-next-black-monday

[bull....]

Hey mate ...What is your target of NZX break out on the upside ...I believe u have a good knowledge of TA as u do lots of short term trading ...NZ50G can top 12800 in this run in your view ??

im not really into targets on nzx index level as its quite a illiquid market , i prefer to be re-actionary on an index level for this market.

[bull....]

Fed Chair Powell says inflation is starting to ease, but interest rates still likely to rise
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/fed-chief-powell-says-the-the-disinflationary-process-has-begun-but-has-a-long-way-to-go.html

[winner69]

No worries as Janet says “You don’t have a recession when you have the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years.”

[Ggcc]

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/02/08/govt-announces-minimum-wage-to-rise-from-april-1/

Great news for everyone........Not. I understand people need to make more money and it is hard to make something work for everyone, but not many people I know are having their pay packets increase by 7% this year. Expect to pay more for loads of things this year and be happy.

[stoploss]

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/02/08/govt-announces-minimum-wage-to-rise-from-april-1/

Great news for everyone........Not. I understand people need to make more money and it is hard to make something work for everyone, but not many people I know are having their pay packets increase by 7% this year. Expect to pay more for loads of things this year and be happy.
Still working against the central bank .......

[Aaron]

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/02/08/govt-announces-minimum-wage-to-rise-from-april-1/

Great news for everyone........Not. I understand people need to make more money and it is hard to make something work for everyone, but not many people I know are having their pay packets increase by 7% this year. Expect to pay more for loads of things this year and be happy.

If they are not getting 7% then they are getting poorer. At least relative to the basket of goods that make up the CPI.

Inflation not looking so good anymore now it is creeping beyond asset prices?

[Ggcc]

If they are not getting 7% then they are getting poorer. At least relative to the basket of goods that make up the CPI.

Inflation not looking so good anymore now it is creeping beyond asset prices?
I understand what you are getting at and I agree to a degree, but there is such a thing as upskilling them to earn more, or take on more responsibilities so that they can pay you more. You can give them a fishing net or just give them fish..... You get where I am going with this.

[Aaron]

I understand what you are getting at and I agree to a degree, but there is such a thing as upskilling them to earn more, or take on more responsibilities so that they can pay you more. You can give them a fishing net or just give them fish..... You get where I am going with this.

Anyone on minimum wage is stupid and/or lazy so get what they deserve re wages. Especially if they don't know how to fish?

[Ggcc]

Anyone on minimum wage is stupid and/or lazy so get what they deserve re wages. Especially if they don't know how to fish?

Nope. Anyone who is happy to work for minimum wage needs to consider that they either need to change jobs, they have found a job that they are happy to work with, or not moan they are on minimum wage and do nothing to change their ways, or need help moving to upskill themselves. At the end of the day moving up the bottom bracket works for governments not for the people. I had a business and if cost increased 7% I put prices up 10% just to make the same money.

[BlackPeter]

Anyone on minimum wage is stupid and/or lazy so get what they deserve re wages. Especially if they don't know how to fish?

I hope you are just trying to joke ... or are you really that clueless?

Most of our working population starts at (or close to) minimum wage ... and many essential jobs have hardly any progression with increasing experience - so, what you are saying essentially is that most working people must be stupid and / or lazy at least in the early years of their career.

Is this what you think?

[FTG]

At the end of the day moving up the bottom bracket works for governments not for the people.

Yip. From "April Fools Day" a full-timer on the minimum wage will basically be knocking on the $48K tax bracket - 30% Tax!

[Baa_Baa]

Yip. From "April Fools Day" a full-timer on the minimum wage will basically be knocking on the $48K tax bracket - 30% Tax!

Exactly, a increase in the pay rates (which ripples up through all pay scales) without an adjustment to the tax brackets is a cynical swipe at employers who have to pay their staff and to the staff who get hit by higher tax brackets. The beneficiary that they don't talk about, is the increased government tax take.

[Panda-NZ-]

Exactly, a increase in the pay rates (which ripples up through all pay scales) without an adjustment to the tax brackets is a cynical swipe at employers who have to pay their staff and to the staff who get hit by higher tax brackets. The beneficiary that they don't talk about, is the increased government tax take.

Employers should be made to pay 8% kiwisaver rather than have the state subsidise all these retirement costs.

There's no payroll taxes in NZ either unlike elsewhere.

[Aaron]

I hope you are just trying to joke ... or are you really that clueless?

Most of our working population starts at (or close to) minimum wage ... and many essential jobs have hardly any progression with increasing experience - so, what you are saying essentially is that most working people must be stupid and / or lazy at least in the early years of their career.

Is this what you think?
Nope. Anyone who is happy to work for minimum wage needs to consider that they either need to change jobs, they have found a job that they are happy to work with, or not moan they are on minimum wage and do nothing to change their ways, or need help moving to upskill themselves. At the end of the day moving up the bottom bracket works for governments not for the people. I had a business and if cost increased 7% I put prices up 10% just to make the same money.

[777]

Employers should be made to pay 8% kiwisaver rather than have the state subsidise all these retirement costs.

There's no payroll taxes in NZ either unlike elsewhere.

Obviously you have never run a business.

Do tell us all the countries that have a payroll tax.

[Panda-NZ-]

The unemployment rate is at 3% and if it goes up then it simply means less migrants will be necessary (which is great , less pollution and congestion etc etc).

[Panda-NZ-]

Nope. Anyone who is happy to work for minimum wage needs to consider that they either need to change jobs, they have found a job that they are happy to work with, or not moan they are on minimum wage and do nothing to change their ways, or need help moving to upskill themselves. At the end of the day moving up the bottom bracket works for governments not for the people. I had a business and if cost increased 7% I put prices up 10% just to make the same money.

How many IT jobs are in regional areas... minimum wage is the only job available outside the cities.

[alokdhir]

I am pro increasing minimum wage for the long term good of the society ...it actually targets poorest / humblest of our most hardworking workers who form the backbone of our society and its peace and well being . It doesn't promote inflation in any meaningful way but adds to economy as these hard workers need it for still hand to mouth existence ...all extra in their pockets comes straight to economy M3 thus helping overall growth too . I think keep increasing it puts pressure on labour oriented businesses to become more productive and move up the food chain thus making economy more productive which is the aim too ...businesses just surviving on using cheap labour shud give way to more value added businesses

[bull....]

yep i think minimum wage should go too $27

[SailorRob]

I am pro increasing minimum wage for the long term good of the society ...it actually targets poorest / humblest of our most hardworking workers who form the backbone of our society and its peace and well being . It doesn't promote inflation in any meaningful way but adds to economy as these hard workers need it for still hand to mouth existence ...all extra in their pockets comes straight to economy M3 thus helping overall growth too . I think keep increasing it puts pressure on labour oriented businesses to become more productive and move up the food chain thus making economy more productive which is the aim too ...businesses just surviving on using cheap labour shud give way to more value added businesses

Astounding logic here.

Increase it to $100.

[winner69]

Astounding logic here.

Increase it to $100.

Miserable sod …why not $200

[Panda-NZ-]

Astounding logic here.

Increase it to $100.

Well, we might end up the most efficient place in the world due to all the machines brought in. :)

NZ businesses becoming technically literate in one go.

[ynot]

Astounding logic here.

Increase it to $100.

No problem, as long as you don't mind paying $20. for a coffee.

[winner69]

Sharon at ANZ -

ANZ Truckometer: Both heavy and light traffic dipped in Jan and fell over Q4 too, suggesting downside risk to our GDP pick of +0.3%, all else equal. But there are more gaps in the data than usual so we’d caution against drawing strong conclusions.

https://watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Truckometer_dropping_back_to_trend.pdf?data =DhZAW5pNirsgovBdALYwomrNyXdpUKxDB7RxefLNZ79DdE3Iw kjikhCo7OhrEBsP6Uagmgj6B6pPDNlZhuh3q7PVWhJKgz1G4y3 Pa2gtvjJmZXe1ybJXF8omQ%2F%2FM7zjwHyPlR%2B6bbE0q6n1 9105TIpzP6A5yobOv779hz05%2FZ5Xhy33Dgr88zhB%2F9KFUd uIv0DltVXkRLepUs9vElZzflHV5Wxm%2BlzUU4gNZyjtFmn64A FeZSCYwMpulhE9qkxCyaweGdaY%2FtZXzmW3exgpJifCfo%2F6 iKuFWg5duViio9%2FSY96tjb6v9Gw08p8KVChlRquh1JWobGtc 9njUrt1jhaSNAhHxfIBIkO9GdbWX1eqW5CkK6HZpGNcWnQUmxd fVLghX0ZJ8MgSf7%2BnXWzZlyHD15JgMAfVhrR1xolrbNOLkrZ r9IoaIgh2ll77NAk2Sa2D9P1jH0YiCLBJXFLiTGZC0zDf86eq5 PLyAJthQMNjmOtSop1WjQwf6pCzWNiRbOJkDmwG34vYwQhSTOl KGY1Pw160ThwrjD6Ygz1NDJ43XNUKH33Z5FevnOotvBwF83ojg b07W5SUvms0KYnybubHjw9Wr5e7vd939rasHRf1Lhz5eeEUxBB ki6p%2F0kDnZl2NyOSn4qRiBRb7I7Y5nR8yAVpU1uSWsSjoTDF HbDYal0SWqws5tDOsN9sIwGj91hsjkzpbGYUEhI12uwoSkgH4e %2BGV7IEnGolihY9RzUlus9TbwnQ0MquqiG98pYdJfFt7%2B6L YZUYdJ%2FA7pHn0dlMQCXVvXWjnrhQNVF5JSQXPjddNdTdd5Sx 7t1u%2BAUbM19wovx9nIIoxpfbJuKaIwssw%3D%3D&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Truckometer_dropping_back _to_trend.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3D26814c7b155705862cb1c5388d4071114dd0b4 fe45c08dfc18cfd4e33bf783da%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAZGZPZQBPX2SV22UN%252F20230208%252 Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20230208T000000Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost

[Bobdn]

"Living Wage" needs to adjusted massively now. Most (all?) Local council "minimum wage" employees are paid the Living Wage which is much higher than the minimum wage. $30 per hour Living Wage soon?

[dobby41]

If raising the minimum wage spells doom for the economy would lowering it put us all in a better place?

[bull....]

US markets continuing to trade in the sideways range , failed to break out to the top end and this week has rolling back to the botoom

[bull....]

market moving events this week

US CPI report
UFO's over the US , Canada and now china
may be the start of earth invasion by alien's ? if it is could be a big market moving event

[winner69]

Not a good start to earnings seasons

Headlines so far -

Fletcher shares dive 5.9% after earnings downgrade


Writedown produces shocker half year result for Contact Energy

[pierre]

Not a good start to earnings seasons

Headlines so far -

Fletcher shares dive 5.9% after earnings downgrade


Writedown produces shocker half year result for Contact Energy
Just wait for the HLG update - all will be good.

[bull....]

futures led selling on UFO ( alien invasion fears ) early monday NZ time have abated as US indexes post good gains ( thank goodness alien invasion would have been bad for markets ) on news the white house has confirmed its not aliens.

[alokdhir]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300806909/cyclone-gabrielle-could-cost-economy-tens-of-billions

With such wide spread damage and loss due to historic cyclone ...will RBNZ do something different on 22nd Feb ? Very possible ...

[bull....]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300806909/cyclone-gabrielle-could-cost-economy-tens-of-billions

With such wide spread damage and loss due to historic cyclone ...will RBNZ do something different on 22nd Feb ? Very possible ...

yes they might raise more due to inflationary impact lol

[bull....]

Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consumer-price-index-january-2023-.html

hot retail figure's tomorrow might cement the further rate rises to come

[Bobdn]

Yes even higher inflation heading our way. Bread is disappearing off supermarket shelves

The cupboard is empty.

The Government didn't put any money aside for a rainy day.

[bull....]

Yes even higher inflation heading our way. Bread is disappearing off supermarket shelves

The cupboard is empty.

The Government didn't put any money aside for a rainy day.

food prices will get very expensive this yr and that be if you can even get some items.

see bird flu is spreading around world now meaning chicken might become hard to get and expensive at some stage :scared: i live on chicken its resonably priced and good protein

Bird flu spreads to new countries, threatens non-stop 'war' on poultry
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2023/02/bird-flu-spreads-to-new-countries-threatens-non-stop-war-on-poultry.html

[alokdhir]

food prices will get very expensive this yr and that be if you can even get some items.

see bird flu is spreading around world now meaning chicken might become hard to get and expensive at some stage :scared: i live on chicken its resonably priced and good protein

Bird flu spreads to new countries, threatens non-stop 'war' on poultry


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2023/02/bird-flu-spreads-to-new-countries-threatens-non-stop-war-on-poultry.html


https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/119664/there-comes-time-when-such-restraint-no-longer-necessary-we-are-definitely-approaching

Raising rates will not create stuff ...just cause more hardships ...BNZ thinks so and I am with them ...Natural disasters shud not and I am sure will not encourage RBNZ to go Hawkish ...as no amount of rate rise can create stuff destroyed by natural disaster ...it can only cause further hardships

RBNZ shud act more pragmatic ...me picking 50 bips rise ...shud be 25 bips next !!!!

[Balance]

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/119664/there-comes-time-when-such-restraint-no-longer-necessary-we-are-definitely-approaching

Raising rates will not create stuff ...just cause more hardships ...BNZ thinks so and I am with them ...Natural disasters shud not and I am sure will not encourage RBNZ to go Hawkish ...as no amount of rate rise can create stuff destroyed by natural disaster ...it can only cause further hardships

RBNZ shud act more pragmatic ...me picking 50 bips rise ...shud be 25 bips next !!!!

RBNZ is on record that it wants to create a recession to fix NZ’s inflationary spiral.

There is a government addicted to wasteful spending in election year.

The two do not compute.

Interest rate rises are the RBNZ’s only realistic weapon.

[bull....]

RBNZ is on record that it wants to create a recession to fix NZ’s inflationary spiral.

There is a government addicted to wasteful spending in election year.

The two do not compute.

Interest rate rises are the RBNZ’s only realistic weapon.

yep and the famous NZ person phillip's ... said to cure inflation unemployment must rise

[ronaldson]

I disagree. The objective of interest rate rises is to reduce spending in the economy. It doesn't work very well because it impacts those who have borrowed, but rewards those who have saved via bank deposits, which skews the outcome.

Better in my view would be to raise the minimum % contribution to Kiwisaver by 1%, which would take money from many more of the population and do so without confiscating it as it remains their money within whatever scheme has been chosen. It is well known that by, for example, comparison with Australia where a far higher proportion is contributed to superannuation, Kiwisaver's long term balances will be hopelessly inadequate after inflation is accounted. Interest rate rises by contrast is money permanently foregone by those whose current stage in life requires them to borrow and pay.

If raising the minimum Kiwisaver contribution rate by just 1% is an effective trade off against an interest rate rise of 1% why would you not prefer that?

[alokdhir]

RBNZ is on record that it wants to create a recession to fix NZ’s inflationary spiral.

There is a government addicted to wasteful spending in election year.

The two do not compute.

Interest rate rises are the RBNZ’s only realistic weapon.

Since when Central Banker's talk or hype became Gospel's truth ...it was just a hawkish talk to scare people into submission ...now situation have changed and u are experienced enough to know how they can or will change track 180 degrees ....

Govt is not helping but doing humanitarian work is more important than " Inflation control " any day in my book ....getting people back on feet earliest possible is actually more productive then let them struggle ...

RBNZ job has become more difficult then any of us can comprehend ...agree emotions dont have any say in it ...all need done for greater good of masses ...but that part also can be done by going little easy keeping in view big change after very big natural disaster

[Bjauck]

Nope. Anyone who is happy to work for minimum wage needs to consider that they either need to change jobs, they have found a job that they are happy to work with, or not moan they are on minimum wage and do nothing to change their ways, or need help moving to upskill themselves. At the end of the day moving up the bottom bracket works for governments not for the people. I had a business and if cost increased 7% I put prices up 10% just to make the same money.
Yep. I think road cleaners need at least a bachelor’s and Macca staff a doctorate. I also I think we need to continue the progress to full feudalism, by taxing workers and wages to the hilt while keeping multimillion gains on real estate tax-free. So taxed minimum income workers (peasants, ghillies) can surround the multimillion dollar trust fund farmers’ manors (gentry, lairds)

[BlackPeter]

food prices will get very expensive this yr and that be if you can even get some items.

see bird flu is spreading around world now meaning chicken might become hard to get and expensive at some stage :scared: i live on chicken its resonably priced and good protein

Bird flu spreads to new countries, threatens non-stop 'war' on poultry
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2023/02/bird-flu-spreads-to-new-countries-threatens-non-stop-war-on-poultry.html

These days must be a festival for you ... bad news and desperation everywhere and you are clearly going in overdrive spreading it. So much black sludge around to spread - where do you start?

Just try to look after yourself, will you? We don't want you to lose your nearly unlimited negative energy ... Would be really sad if bull looses the power to tear things down and cover everything with black sludge ...

[Aaron]

Yep. I think road cleaners need at least a bachelor’s and Macca staff a doctorate. I also I think we need to continue the progress to full feudalism, by taxing workers and wages to the hilt while keeping multimillion gains on real estate tax-free. So taxed minimum income workers (peasants, ghillies) can surround the multimillion dollar trust fund farmers’ manors (gentry, lairds)

Hard for me to argue the point as I just cut and pasted Ggcc response to our earlier discussion to deflect Black Peters wrath as I don't think he followed the discussion with Ggcc prior to that, not even sure that I agree with Ggcc my initial sarcastic post that upset Black Peter was intended to convey this.

[Balance]

Since when Central Banker's talk or hype became Gospel's truth ...it was just a hawkish talk to scare people into submission ...now situation have changed and u are experienced enough to know how they can or will change track 180 degrees ....

Govt is not helping but doing humanitarian work is more important than " Inflation control " any day in my book ....getting people back on feet earliest possible is actually more productive then let them struggle ...

RBNZ job has become more difficult then any of us can comprehend ...agree emotions dont have any say in it ...all need done for greater good of masses ...but that part also can be done by going little easy keeping in view big change after very big natural disaster

If you have not noticed, RBNZ has been relentlessly increasing interest rates? No empty hawkish talk there!

The slowdown is happening - just a question of degree and how RBNZ measures it as sufficient or not.

Anyway, just my view and I could be right and I could be wrong.

We cannot control the storm, we can only prepare for it and manage our emotion when it hits. Therein lies the risks and the opportunities.

[Bjauck]

Hard for me to argue the point as I just cut and pasted Ggcc response to our earlier discussion to deflect Black Peters wrath as I don't think he followed the discussion with Ggcc prior to that, not even sure that I agree with Ggcc my initial sarcastic post that upset Black Peter was intended to convey this.
I didn’t read far enough back. It didn’t read like some of your other posts, however there was no attribution to anyone else….

That’s the trouble with sarcasm - the reader may not necessarily pick it up. I am guilty of that too!

[BlackPeter]

Hard for me to argue the point as I just cut and pasted Ggcc response to our earlier discussion to deflect Black Peters wrath as I don't think he followed the discussion with Ggcc prior to that, not even sure that I agree with Ggcc my initial sarcastic post that upset Black Peter was intended to convey this.

Oh dear ... now its all my fault :ohmy:.

You might need to study the good book, though. Its not my fault if humans sin ... :p ;

[Onemootpoint]

food prices will get very expensive this yr and that be if you can even get some items.

see bird flu is spreading around world now meaning chicken might become hard to get and expensive at some stage :scared:

Getting to a point where we can ask……which disappeared first? The chicken or the egg?

Eggs being hard to find, and if found quite expensive.

[blackcap]

Getting to a point where we can ask……which disappeared first? The chicken or the egg?

Eggs being hard to find, and if found quite expensive.

So glad I have my own chickens and have eggs in excess and no issues to report. Try it, chickens are not hard to keep, the average price per dozen eggs ends up at about $1.50 if you do your own. Capital costs taken into account.

[alokdhir]

So glad I have my own chickens and have eggs in excess and no issues to report. Try it, chickens are not hard to keep, the average price per dozen eggs ends up at about $1.50 if you do your own. Capital costs taken into account.

On lighter note ...Keeping chickens ( only a set number allowed as per council ) makes u a very unpopular neighbour for obvious reasons ...:p

[BlackPeter]

On lighter note ...Keeping chickens ( only a set number allowed as per council ) makes u a very unpopular neighbour for obvious reasons ...:p

Hmmm - I can't see these "obvious" reasons - do you want to enlighten us?

[alokdhir]

Hmmm - I can't see these "obvious" reasons - do you want to enlighten us?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/chicken-war-albany-man-files-council-complaint-claiming-neighbours-20-chooks-are-a-noise-and-health-hazard/4SC4RMHI4RZ5OTQLN6XM4XAIEU/

This shud do !!! Unless u r on a rural property with so much land that your boundaries are out of range of chicken limits ....lol

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/chicken-war-albany-man-files-council-complaint-claiming-neighbours-20-chooks-are-a-noise-and-health-hazard/4SC4RMHI4RZ5OTQLN6XM4XAIEU/

This shud do !!! Unless u r on a rural property with so much land that your boundaries are out of range of chicken limits ....lol

Well, I don't know what you consider as "rural". We do have adjacent to our block some neighbors with chicken (and we hold some chicken ourselves). No problems.

The only problem neighbors in our area don't have chicken, however they compensate for the lack of roosters with long and loud idling of their cars, and allowing their kids to run their cross bikes across their block and by running their stereos day and night to entertain the hood.

You don't recognize bad neighbors by holding chicken.

You do recognize bad neighbors by lacking respect for others and by having bad behaved dogs and offspring (apple falls not far from the tree).

[alokdhir]

Well, I don't know what you consider as "rural". We do have adjacent to our block some neighbors with chicken (and we hold some chicken ourselves). No problems.

The only problem neighbors in our area don't have chicken, however they compensate for the lack of roosters with long and loud idling of their cars, and allowing their kids to run their cross bikes across their block and by running their stereos day and night to entertain the hood.

You don't recognize bad neighbors by holding chicken.

You do recognize bad neighbors by lacking respect for others and by having bad behaved dogs and offspring (apple falls not far from the tree).

I do understand your point of view ...but its easy to train your children to respect neighbours but maybe little difficult to do the same with chickens ...lol :p

But living in AKL for last 20 years ...I have seen the civility levels going down to almost negative ...now people go out of the way to trouble u

[bull....]

Well, I don't know what you consider as "rural". We do have adjacent to our block some neighbors with chicken (and we hold some chicken ourselves). No problems.

The only problem neighbors in our area don't have chicken, however they compensate for the lack of roosters with long and loud idling of their cars, and allowing their kids to run their cross bikes across their block and by running their stereos day and night to entertain the hood.

You don't recognize bad neighbors by holding chicken.

You do recognize bad neighbors by lacking respect for others and by having bad behaved dogs and offspring (apple falls not far from the tree).

maybe some of your chicken sh..t lying all over the place my come in handy to give to your annoying neighbours

[blackcap]

On lighter note ...Keeping chickens ( only a set number allowed as per council ) makes u a very unpopular neighbour for obvious reasons ...:p

Yeah did have a lady neighbour who used to complain a bit about the smell. But never apologised for her kids (noise and other crap flying over the fence). We now live in a different location and no complaints.

[percy]

Pity seeing this thread turn fowl.?..

[alokdhir]

Pity seeing this thread turn fowl.?..

I told them people complain ...but they wont listen ...:p

[Entrep]

Some very poultry arguments being made.

[bull....]

strong US retail figure's this week and persistant high inflation no way fed is easing up yet

Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/producer-price-index-january-2023-.html

on another note i see UK and CAC have hit all time high's in there stock markets this week

[alokdhir]

strong US retail figure's this week and persistant high inflation no way fed is easing up yet

Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in January, more than expected, fueling inflation increase


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/producer-price-index-january-2023-.html

on another note i see UK and CAC have hit all time high's in there stock markets this week

I also note US 10Y above strong resistance of 3.80...almost 3.84% ...means Bond market also coming to view recession not so imminent ...or if looked thru Bull's prism " that rates will go higher and stay higher for longer " ....both views can be right ...But Stocks not crashing ...Bull will say " as yet " ...rather as he noted some markets like UK and CAC made new all time highs ...stocks will wait for signs of "earnings recession " due to higher rates ...again may or may not happen as this time surely its very very different ..." Life is short " attitude plus excellent labour markets making consumers hard to subdue ...makes inflation more sticky ...will surely take either much higher rates to control faster or keep them high for longer at current expected peaks for gradual falls over next 12-18 months ...my pick will be mix of both depending on politics of the country !!

[bull....]

I also note US 10Y above strong resistance of 3.80...almost 3.84% ...means Bond market also coming to view recession not so imminent ...or if looked thru Bull's prism " that rates will go higher and stay higher for longer " ....both views can be right ...But Stocks not crashing ...Bull will say " as yet " ...rather as he noted some markets like UK and CAC made new all time highs ...stocks will wait for signs of "earnings recession " due to higher rates ...again may or may not happen as this time surely its very very different ..." Life is short " attitude plus excellent labour markets making consumers hard to subdue ...makes inflation more sticky ...will surely take either much higher rates to control faster or keep them high for longer at current expected peaks for gradual falls over next 12-18 months ...my pick will be mix of both depending on politics of the country !!

US stocks back towards bottoms of recent ranges again
asx retreated of that top of range i mentioned

[percy]

Another from The Secret Broker,
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zdtjkg-yupddjlly-o/

[bull....]

public holiday US markets tomorrow ... cool another sleepin , anyway i see nz market getting a bit of a hammering today. selling everything to pay for ryman ? or just selling nz on cyclone outlook ?

[alokdhir]

public holiday US markets tomorrow ... cool another sleepin , anyway i see nz market getting a bit of a hammering today. selling everything to pay for ryman ? or just selling nz on cyclone outlook ?

Selling in anticipation of Wednesday rate hike mate ...also show of poor governance in cyclone hit area ...Ministers trying to control gangs and looters by just polite words ...what a shame !!! Shud have army maintaining law and order and save poor victims of cyclone from scum bags ...

[bull....]

Selling in anticipation of Wednesday rate hike mate ...also show of poor governance in cyclone hit area ...Ministers trying to control gangs and looters by just polite words ...what a shame !!! Shud have army maintaining law and order and save poor victims of cyclone from scum bags ...

could be , what a tuff decision for orr .... maintain independance or show empathy and let inflation soar some more

[causecelebre]

could be , what a tuff decision for orr .... maintain independance or show empathy and let inflation soar some more

independence ? hahahahahaha....

[Aaron]

independence ? hahahahahaha....

He is probably calling Grant Robertson to find out what he should do and saying thanks for another 5 years on $800,000pa.

[peat]

Another from The Secret Broker,
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zdtjkg-yupddjlly-o/


amusing story

:):D:p

the wheels of justice sure turn slowly.

[nztx]

He is probably calling Grant Robertson to find out what he should do and saying thanks for another 5 years on $800,000pa.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/government-opens-door-to-reassessing-new-taxes-for-cyclone-at-budget-in-may/CTBIKGL6DBAAXGOAHIQ7RNIEHI/

Government opens door to reassessing new taxes for cyclone at Budget in May

Potentially more daylight robbery on the way - folks

The coffers must be heading towards empty

Mid year sweeteners might be a non event in 2023 too ;)

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/government-opens-door-to-reassessing-new-taxes-for-cyclone-at-budget-in-may/CTBIKGL6DBAAXGOAHIQ7RNIEHI/

Government opens door to reassessing new taxes for cyclone at Budget in May

Potentially more daylight robbery on the way - folks

The coffers must be heading towards empty

Mid year sweeteners might be a non even in 2023 too ;)

the brisbane levy introduced after there flooding was based on income levels the more you earnt the more you paid.
people earning under 50k paid nothing

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/tough-call-for-reserve-bank-but-rate-hike-expected-despite-economic-blow-from-cyclone-gabrielle/RTLEC4LYQZAJTAYI5KWHA7QUCQ/

Tough call for Reserve Bank but rate hike expected despite economic blow from Cyclone Gabrielle



Bl**dy Orr-some - Adrian .. infact completely clueless when a fair portion of the Country
is devastated & sitting in tatters still awaiting any form of economic support from Govt ;)

[bull....]

more selling today on nzx

[alokdhir]

more selling today on nzx

For me its reached strong support of 11800 ...so worth a punt ...lol ...what ever maybe the outcome tmrw from RNBZ ...we shud at least have a bounce ...imho

[bull....]

US markets continuing to trade in the sideways range , failed to break out to the top end and this week has rolling back to the botoom

the range continue's. feb living up to seasonals too

[Bjauck]

Wrong thread. My error.

[percy]

Excellent results from EBO,NZM and SPK.

[bull....]

spk result wasnt that good

[percy]

spk result wasnt that good

I liked it.?? lol.

[winner69]

They might get it right one day ….you never know

From Bloomberg - Expensive US equities are flashing a warning sign that could see the S&P 500 sliding as much as 26% in the first half of this year, according to Morgan Stanley strategists

[nztx]

Coming through in many of the announcements is an air of caution on the conditions in local goldfish bowl.

Most reporting is based on before the cyclone.

Now the economy is even more munted & broken with effects of the storm.

Gobbo Robbo has been delivered up his worst nightmare and the purse linings are showing,
illusions of the savings aside for a rainy day are but just a smokescreen for reality, like it
or not .. the she'll be right has now come back to bite badly and it shows as Hipkins
desperately tries to keep on a brave face among the vast carnage.


Time for extreme care folks .. Today's bargain might work out or be laced with something that could be
decidedly unpalatable tomorrow ;)

[bull....]

I liked it.?? lol.


div increase was nice , but is this being paid from one off gains? i didnt like the inflationary margin pressure they have and they are facing going forward

[nztx]

div increase was nice , but is this being paid from one off gains? i didnt like the inflationary margin pressure they have and they are facing going forward

agree .. good point .. cell towers sold .. what left to sell for next period ?

[BlackPeter]

Coming through in many of the announcements is an air of caution on the conditions local goldfish bowl

Most reporting is based on before the cyclone

Now the economy is even more munted & broken with effects of the storm

Gobbo Robbo has been delivered up his worst nightmare and the purse linings are showing


Time for extreme care folks .. Today's bargain might work out or be laced with something that could be
decidedly unpalatable tomorrow ;)

Investment 101: bargain prices always come with higher (perceived or real) risks ...

Having said that: How often did people predict the end of the world? ... and how often did the world really end?

I think it is fair to assume that the sun will keep rising ... and so far humans always recovered after catastrophies and ended up better off. I am sure this will be the case here as well. Only question is - how to best help with the recovery.

Companies who have the skills and resources to help with clean up / repair / new building will be in demand.

Normally anything in demand comes with a fair price.

So will companies supplying all the necessities of life ...

building industry - energy - communication - transport - food - essentials ...

So many opportunities.

[see weed]

Investment 101: bargain prices always come with higher (perceived or real) risks ...

Having said that: How often did people predict the end of the world? ... and how often did the world really end?

I think it is fair to assume that the sun will keep rising ... and so far humans always recovered after catastrophies and ended up better off. I am sure this will be the case here as well. Only question is - how to best help with the recovery.

Companies who have the skills and resources to help with clean up / repair / new building will be in demand.

Normally anything in demand comes with a fair price.

So will companies supplying all the necessities of life ...

building industry - energy - communication - transport - food - essentials ...

So many opportunities.
Yes that is right FBU and STU can be added to that list with all the repair and new build to happen also adding HLG for all the blokes who need clothing for when they go out and spend their big construction wages on taking out all the young ladies who will be shopping at Glassons to look good. Ah, life will become good again and the sun will shine again.:)

[causecelebre]

OCR up by 50 bps

[sb9]

More pain to come, Orr not done yet...

[winner69]

OCR up by 50 bps

Should have gone straight to 5%

[Bobdn]

Agreed. Actually needs to go straight to 7 per cent at least. Oh well, "double digit inflation is just around the corner". Who wants to party?

[winner69]

Agreed. Actually needs to go straight to 7 per cent at least. Oh well, "double digit inflation is just around the corner". Who wants to party?

If he had started raising before he did he might be in position to be cutting rates ……been way behind the curve from the start

[JBmurc]

Unlike overseas like US with there very long 20-30 yr term fixed loans ... higher rates in the short term doesn't affect many of their FHB or debt laden families ... like say here in NZ where most lending only lock in 1-2yrs ... many will be coming off 2-3% to getting kicked in the face with 7%+ ... lost your home in the flood no worries here's a 100% increase in your monthly repayments ... Huge Living costs inflation .. here you go lets double that interest payment ... all about bring down inflation and of course making the RICH even RICHER ..bring on those fat term deposits .. Mortgagee sales

[percy]

Unlike overseas like US with there very long 20-30 yr term fixed loans ... higher rates in the short term doesn't affect many of their FHB or debt laden families ... like say here in NZ where most lending only lock in 1-2yrs ... many will be coming off 2-3% to getting kicked in the face with 7%+ ... lost your home in the flood no worries here's a 100% increase in your monthly repayments ... Huge Living costs inflation .. here you go lets double that interest payment ... all about bring down inflation and of course making the RICH even RICHER ..bring on those fat term deposits .. Mortgagee sales

We had near 20% over night interest rates in the 1970s.
Hard yes.
End of the World.No.

[Rawz]

We had near 20% over night interest rates in the 1970s.
Hard yes.
End of the World.No.

yeah but you could buy a house for a years salary back then.

much tougher these days

[777]

yeah but you could buy a house for a years salary back then.

much tougher these days

Well 5 yrs average salary.

[Rawz]

Free university back in the day. could get away with single income households. now both mum and dad need to work.

gee what went wrong?

[percy]

Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vpzMBxXDQw

[winner69]

Balance of payments doesn’t look too good

[bull....]

Fed minutes show members resolved to keep fighting inflation


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/22/fed-minutes-february-2023-minutes-show-fed-members-resolved-to-keep-fighting-inflation.html

market seems to be coming round to the idea no rate cuts this yr

even ORR saying same this morning on breakfast with hosking that raising 50 now was better than letting inflation run also saying in this piece that a new tax is better than borrowing for him ( brisbane levy for set time ?)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131308473/adrian-orr-gives-the-political-class-a-wakeup-call-on-borrowandspend

[ynot]

Balance of payments doesn’t look too good
That would be an understatement. Where to from here ?

[bull....]

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr calls on banks to lift deposit rates as much as mortgage rates

https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/120029/rbnz-governor-adrian-orr-calls-banks-lift-deposit-rates-much-mortgage-rates-says

more competition on some stocks if it happens , if it happens , if they even listen to him. anyway considering FLP only finished in dec im sure banks are in not desparate for new deposits thx to ORR letting money printing run so long and helping the banks increase there net interest margin even more this period.

[Valuegrowth]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warnings-stock-market-bubble-finally-211445323.html

[bull....]

NZ Retail sales fall 4% in December quarter as consumers feel the pinch

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131346311/retail-sales-fall-4-in-december-quarter-as-consumers-feel-the-pinch

Might be a bounce back from cyclone spending but just be an outlier in the data i imagine for the rest of the yr

[Entrep]

https://archive.ph/0exWR

March Will Bring Bear-Market Risks for US Stocks, Morgan Stanley Says

[Rawz]

A bit of a trend with recent reporting.. sell more but make less. Companies finding it difficult to maintain profit margins. Expenses difficult to contain

Maintain market share or maintain margins?

[bull....]

A bit of a trend with recent reporting.. sell more but make less. Companies finding it difficult to maintain profit margins. Expenses difficult to contain

Maintain market share or maintain margins?

exactly

With most of the S&P 500 earnings reports behind, it’s clear companies are in an earnings slump and have a difficult year ahead regardless of the recession scenario, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
“As of last Thursday, with almost 95% of market cap reporting, S&P 500 operating earnings per share were tracking $49.37, down 13% from a year earlier,”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/26/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

the NZ reporting seasion has not be too different , in fact i think overall nz company reporting was poor and looking forward the next logical step in contracting margins is people being laid off and if this is not possible div cuts

[BlackPeter]

exactly

With most of the S&P 500 earnings reports behind, it’s clear companies are in an earnings slump and have a difficult year ahead regardless of the recession scenario, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
“As of last Thursday, with almost 95% of market cap reporting, S&P 500 operating earnings per share were tracking $49.37, down 13% from a year earlier,”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/26/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

the NZ reporting seasion has not be too different , in fact i think overall nz company reporting was poor and looking forward the next logical step in contracting margins is people being laid off and if this is not possible div cuts

Why do you make every normal process sounding bad?

We are currently at an absolute employment peak - there obviously is only one way we can go from here (as with any other peak) ... and Reserve banks around the world are pretty desperate to engineer a recession, so - yes it is great to see that both the laws of gravity as well as the efforts of the many Orrs around the world do work and conditions are going to deteriorate, as they should.

But hey - this is as natural as night following day ... and clever investors will think about how to make money the next day instead of whinging about dusk falling in.

[bull....]

was a black monday today for me
went to buy some kumera for the roast and it was $14 for 2 :scared: that's right 2 bloody kumera obviously our food supply chain is fu..ed

[Bobdn]

I know what you mean. $5 for a cabbage. Rump steak was $14 a kg, however, so I filled up my (little) freezer.

[BlackPeter]

was a black monday today for me
went to buy some kumera for the roast and it was $14 for 2 :scared: that's right 2 bloody kumera obviously our food supply chain is fu..ed

Should have invested in a Kumara field - and now just creaming it :) ;

Discl: not a big fan of Kumara, but we grow our own Jerusalem artichokes and potatoes plus plenty of vegies. Not concerned about what the shops charge ...

[blackcap]

Should have invested in a Kumara field - and now just creaming it :) ;

Discl: not a big fan of Kumara, but we grow our own Jerusalem artichokes and potatoes plus plenty of vegies. Not concerned about what the shops charge ...

With you there BP. We grow most of our own vegetables. Normally does not make sense financially, but this year its a huge gain. And the freshness you can't beat.

[peat]

markets showing all the attributes of a bear market, except I expect NZD strength (at least relatively if not nominally)

[alokdhir]

markets showing all the attributes of a bear market, except I expect NZD strength (at least relatively if not nominally)

As long as they dont make new lows ....think we will be alright ...biggest fear is the dreaded ..." Capitulation " may come as most had become positive now after jan rally ....but that may actually be final word ...so by year end we will be more positive ...hopefully !!!

[Baa_Baa]

As long as they dont make new lows ....think we will be alright ...biggest fear is the dreaded ..." Capitulation " may come as most had become positive now after jan rally ....but that may actually be final word ...so by year end we will be more positive ...hopefully !!!

The patient wait for 'capitulation', it is a good thing for them - trader or value investor, they have stored up reserve capital and see a once in a generation opportunity to buy equities at extreme low values. It only becomes about choosing wisely, but either way, a sustained rebound from capitulation will reward traders and value investors.

Bring it on!

[mike2020]

The patient wait for 'capitulation', it is a good thing for them - trader or value investor, they have stored up reserve capital and see a once in a generation opportunity to buy equities at extreme low values. It only becomes about choosing wisely, but either way, a sustained rebound from capitulation will reward traders and value investors.

Bring it on!

Your presuming it will happen?

I have been looking to see when KFL announce another warrant offer. I suspect they can't be keen to see another failure, so I am of the opinion they will wait till they are sure the bottom is in and 12 months henceforth they are in the money.

That said I could see their last one being a failure they day they announced it,