Black Monday

[alokdhir]

When does the year roll Alokdhir?… I wonder if they try and give things a wee pump before the list finishes?!

This year I think it will end on 31st Dec ....unlike before ...not very sure

[winner69]

This year I think it will end on 31st Dec ....unlike before ...not very sure


Right on alokdhir …the year generally ends on December 31st

[alokdhir]

Right on alokdhir …the year generally ends on December 31st

Not for previous years of Broker's Picks competition ...I reckon they use to be from 17th to 24th Dec ...something like that ...not sure ...But I like your PUN !!!

[winner69]

Not for previous years of Broker's Picks competition ...I reckon they use to be from 17th to 24th Dec ...something like that ...not sure ...But I like your PUN !!!

suppose it ends when The Herald decides it's time to report how well the brokers have done

[winner69]

Not for previous years of Broker's Picks competition ...I reckon they use to be from 17th to 24th Dec ...something like that ...not sure ...But I like your PUN !!!

I don't think Sharetrader Top Picks got included as an entry this year

Oliver put in a NZ Shareholders Assc selection - mid field at 126 on latest resut

They need a decent picker like you alokdhir .... to get in top 5 if not top :t_up:

[alokdhir]

I don't think Sharetrader Top Picks got included as an entry this year

Oliver put in a NZ Shareholders Assc selection - mid field at 126 on latest resut

They need a decent picker like you alokdhir .... to get in top 5 if not top :t_up:

U r the top dog here ...with your immaculate charts and deep knowledge of almost every company ....need to say thorough balance sheets understanding too :p

[bull....]

wall st behaving to the seasonal's so far this mth , in such that only a small part of december is historically bullish and this narrow window of gains makes december a positive mth overall.

the sp500 has declined beautifully of the downtrend line today confirming we are still in a down trend at this stage

[Aaron]

What a joke. US markets down today

investors spooked by better-than-expected data from the services sector, re-evaluated whether the Federal Reserve could hike interest rates for longer

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-fall-investors-await-more-data-before-fed-meet-2022-12-05/

Good news is bad for financial markets. What a crazy world we live in.

[causecelebre]

the sp500 has declined beautifully of the downtrend line today confirming we are still in a down trend at this stage

four taps on the button
14368

[FTG]

four taps on the button
14368

Poetry in motion?

[winner69]

Aussies have another rate increase ... 25 basis points to 3.1%

Got to curb that inflation the Gov said

More to come in new year

[JBmurc]

Aussies have another rate increase ... 25 basis points to 3.1%

Got to curb that inflation the Gov said

More to come in new year

peanuts compared to our .75% ...

[nztx]

Well well No MOOLAH landed, No MOOLA anymore with the pack of cards
and Loan Sharking outfit thrown into the hands of Receivers & Liquidators:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/moola-owner-goes-into-receivership/OZ2XY5P3MBFMXCQ7Q24LI5APRE/

Moola owner goes into receivership

The Yankie smart money probably got a bit bruised on their venture capital support by looks in the process

We'll possibly see a bit more of this sort of thing happen in near future and more fall
off a cliff, with tightening times

[bull....]

looks like the selling of the downtrend line is continuing today

[bull....]

four taps on the button
14368

nice graph sums it up nicely

[FTG]

four taps on the button
14368

Correctly identifying cycles and hence 'timing' a market is arguably the most difficult part of TA & successful trading.

FWIW, there does appear to be a 8-10 week symmetrical cycle currently running on the S & P.
Assuming that we have very recently printed a pivot point (as per the '4th tap' of the descending trend line), and that the cycle continues, then we are looking at the next pivot point (low in this case) being in late Jan/Early Feb.


All the normal caveats apply, including DYOR!

For most folk, cycles, especially those with shorter time frames, can appear to be fickle. It seems to me that that a key contributing factor to this phenomenon is market participants (which have sufficient influence) correctly spotting/identifying a cycle. As in, once sufficient participants identify a potential cycle, they will then try and game the market and get in/out of positions prior to the flock, by anticipating the key pivot points. As a result the established cycle can then simply 'evaporate' or be significantly distorted, for at least the interim.

[causecelebre]

Poetry in motion?

Lol. I'm a technician so I do see the beauty in this even if trend lines aren't my jam

[bull....]

Correctly identifying cycles and hence 'timing' a market is arguably the most difficult part of TA & successful trading.

FWIW, there does appear to be a 8-10 week symmetrical cycle currently running on the S & P.
Assuming that we have very recently printed a pivot point (as per the '4th tap' of the descending trend line), and that the cycle continues, then we are looking at the next pivot point (low in this case) being in late Jan/Early Feb.


All the normal caveats apply, including DYOR!

For most folk, cycles, especially those with shorter time frames, can appear to be fickle. It seems to me that that a key contributing factor to this phenomenon is market participants (which have sufficient influence) correctly spotting/identifying a cycle. As in, once sufficient participants identify a potential cycle, they will then try and game the market and get in/out of positions prior to the flock, by anticipating the key pivot points. As a result the established cycle can then simply 'evaporate' or be significantly distorted, for at least the interim.

quite a few of the wall st investment firms are calling for new lows in the first quarter next yr

[alokdhir]

quite a few of the wall st investment firms are calling for new lows in the first quarter next yr

Just to be clear about your thoughts ....U r looking for NEW lows ie S&P below 3490 or just a sell off from 4000 + levels in first qtr of 2023 ??

[bull....]

Just to be clear about your thoughts ....U r looking for NEW lows ie S&P below 3490 or just a sell off from 4000 + levels in first qtr of 2023 ??

that's there view , my view as stated on here is markets tracking sideway's still at moment ( short/med view) when if/it goes below 3600 i will become big bear again. i dont have bullish view at moment

[alokdhir]

that's there view , my view as stated on here is markets tracking sideway's still at moment ( short/med view) when if/it goes below 3600 i will become big bear again. i dont have bullish view at moment

Thanks for clarifying that U r not big bearish ...just range trading with markets bouncing off from either top or bottom of range ...till it breaks out either way which can be either side ...for me more likely to breakout on upside after few more months of keeping range ...Only reality ie break below 3600 changes that ..lol

[FTG]

quite a few of the wall st investment firms are calling for new lows in the first quarter next yr

Ah,okay, interesting. So, therefore quite possible that new lows won't be in the first quarter.

[bull....]

Ah,okay, interesting. So, therefore quite possible that new lows won't be in the first quarter.

who knows for sure these firms have serious fire power so ill be watching closely after this mth

[FTG]

who knows for sure these firms have serious fire power so ill be watching closely after this mth

Truth be known Bull....nobody 'knows' for sure.

Their Crystal Balls may be 'bigger', and less cloudy than everyone else's. But whether they actually communicate the full extent of the story that their Crystal Balls reveal, and in advance of them making the moves in the market that they deem appropriate......All sorts of shenanigans going on. ;)

[bull....]

wonder how many kiwisaver fund's be able to claim in NZ that they invest eithically , socially responsible etc etc etc now that vanguard is pulling out of climate change initiative

Vanguard quits net zero climate effort, citing need for independence
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/vanguard-quits-net-zero-climate-alliance-2022-12-07/

lot of kiwisaver funds in NZ use vanguard funds for investing

[Ricky-bobby]

wonder how many kiwisaver fund's be able to claim in NZ that they invest eithically , socially responsible etc etc etc now that vanguard is pulling out of climate change initiative

Vanguard quits net zero climate effort, citing need for independence
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/vanguard-quits-net-zero-climate-alliance-2022-12-07/

lot of kiwisaver funds in NZ use vanguard funds for investing

Haha to much money in coal!!

[alokdhir]

Market sentiment is all over the place these days ...No one has a clue what will happen ahead ...

Latest disconnect is US 10Y etc showing recession ahead while Dr Copper is making new Recent highs ...who wud bet on copper if recession round the corner ...not the financial market pundits ...then who is buying ? Maybe actual users ??

[winner69]

US PPI down but not down as much as expected …and still high enough to worry the FED

Pivot not on horizon yet

[Muse]

Mrs. Moose a sr mgr. with a very large australasian professional services firm. Salary reviews handed out on thursday. I can tell you from that wage inflation is running exceptionally hot - I don't think even the lowest decile would have gotten anything below CPI. This is for a firm that employs thousands. All I can read from this is wage inflation has become unanchored, and that it will continue to feed into the other components of CPI in the near term. The firm is already starting to fret about not being able to pass costs on but openly rationalize it as a problem for 6 months from now. Sounds a like a high class problem for the next 6 months, but its a world class problem beyond that too.

[bull....]

big week this week US CPI , Powell might get volatile being the last big liquidity week before xmas

[peat]

Bear markets are super boring!
They can last for ages too.

[BlackPeter]

Bear markets are super boring!
They can last for ages too.

Depends what you call "ages".

According to Dr. Google:


Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 21 bear markets (not including the current downturn). That's approximately one every 4.5 years, on average. The average length of a bear market is 388 days. Excluding the longest and shortest bear markets, the average length is around 330 days - or just under one year

When did the current bear start? We might be (statistically seen) in for a more pleasant 2023 than some analysts think. But given that most of the relevant parameters are not even within the expertise of stock market analysts (unless they have insider knowledge about Putins, Xi's, the dear leaders and the Ayatollahs minds) don't I give more on the value of analyst predictions than I do normally (which is Zilch).

FWIW - most of my European shares look already friendly (i.e. ways out of bear territory), while too many of my NZ shares are in that regard somewhat lagging.

[peat]

Depends what you call "ages".


check this out, between end of '69 and end of 82 so about 13 years = , there was 1800 days of bear.

14374

[BlackPeter]

check this out, between end of '69 and end of 82 so about 13 years = , there was 1800 days of bear.

14374

Sure, but there have been as well two bulls in between - and these two have been longer than the three bears.

If you only count the bears and ignore the bulls, than we had of course a real long bear since they opened the Amsterdam stock exchange in 1611 :scared: .

[peat]

Sure, but there have been as well two bulls in between - and these two have been longer than the three bears.


I think that the cycles get larger and more volatile as we work our way through late capitalism (classic Marxism really) and so whats past is useful for identifying the cycles but not so much for the extent of time or price action.

one has to consider that for every action there is a similar reaction and we had a long long bull. (about 13 years = approx 4,700 days) so those 300-600 day bear markets may not give us a clue.


14375

[ronaldson]

Market developed some impetus at the close today. Still money out there looking for a home.

This week's adjustments to our immigration settings may be helping?

[BlackPeter]

I think that the cycles get larger and more volatile as we work our way through late capitalism (classic Marxism really) and so whats past is useful for identifying the cycles but not so much for the extent of time or price action.

one has to consider that for every action there is a similar reaction and we had a long long bull. (about 13 years = approx 4,700 days) so those 300-600 day bear markets may not give us a clue.


14375

Interesting theory - haven't heard that yet, but might be.

I am looking more at historical cycles (saecula) .... and just looked at the DOW Jones for the last 100 years.

The Great Depression in 1929 made a real dent into the DOW .... the world war which followed not so much.

Have a look at the picture ...

14376

If we assume that the GFC is for us what the Great Depression was for our forebears, than I would not be too worried about a big bear still mauling our stocks, no matter whether the geopolitical situation still turns into WW III or not.

Obviously - the coming debt crisis is still an interesting joker which if not played properly well might muddy the situation. Not quite sure, how to integrate this.

[winner69]

US CPI lower than expected

BIG UP day for us on cards eh bull

[ratkin]

US CPI lower than expected

BIG UP day for us on cards eh bull

Turns out it was expected to be lower than expected.

[alokdhir]

US CPI lower than expected

BIG UP day for us on cards eh bull

Let FED decide that mate ...soon ...but not today !!!

[bull....]

Let FED decide that mate ...soon ...but not today !!!

yep fed will decide . the market had it big rally monday in anticipation of lower cpi

[winner69]

Turns out it was expected to be lower than expected.


Somebody noted - Inflation swaps traders beat the economists (again) and the Cleveland Fed tracking estimate.

[bull....]

US CPI lower than expected

BIG UP day for us on cards eh bull

while the headline was down , the important bit that powell is watching ie services inflation was pretty much the same. maybe why the market sold the news

[bull....]

NZ market not performing today ..... might be because of this news

Scallop decline sees emergency shutdown of Coromandel fishery

https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/12/13/scallop-decline-sees-emergency-shutdown-of-coromandel-fishery/

[winner69]

Was the Fed stuff not well received …everybody seemed so happy prior to announcement

[alokdhir]

Was the Fed stuff not well received …everybody seemed so happy prior to announcement

Hawkish dot plots spooked market short term ...5.1% new terminal rate was little higher then market expectations but all are conjectures only ...Reality who knows

Expectations of severe recessions are also overdone

FED did and said exactly what it needed to do and say ....All good for long term good of markets ...shud lead to well ripened sweet fruits in next 12 months ...market shud start sensing it in next 6 months I reckon !!!!

[winner69]

Country really in the ****e

From Westpac - The New Zealand economy blew all expectations out of the water with a 2% jump in GDP in the September quarter. That comes on top of an upwardly-revised 1.9% rise in the June quarter, and puts activity around 8% above pre-Covid levels.


Wonder what that Business Editor Bradford will rave on about on TV News tonight

[Grimy]

Or even her daughter Katie Bradford.........

[Curly]

Nasty day on the Dow thus far....

[bull....]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6Xo21L0ybE

[winner69]

Heck alokdhir …what’s up today on US markets

But good that NZ won’t be having a recession next year

[bull....]

some NZ share's should start to fall more now with that nz gdp data being so strong. terminal rate moved to new high on the news meaning big rate increases early next yr

So stock picking is the way i reckon next yr ie what stocks benefit or can maintain business when you have high rates and can do well irrespective of a slowing economy.
also declining inflation will impact some stocks margins to consider as well

[LEMON]

Is the 2023 global recession going to be as bad as the experts claim? Or will they kick the can down the road a few more years, I see a lot of huge construction projects all around the globe, and some massive land and building investments tell me the real recession could be further away than 2023, just a thought, wonder if anyone else has an opinion on this? In Wellington alone, some big projects are underway or about to begin and the real money is in land

I'm also thinking this could have been the last FED rate hike, JP bluffing and then will pause moving in to a rate cut later, no QE for some time

[BlackPeter]

Heck alokdhir …what’s up today on US markets

But good that NZ won’t be having a recession next year

You mean Orr can't even properly design a recession?

[LEMON]

Markets about to take it's last big final epic spew, leverage positions smashed, something breaks and the markets start to recover as FED begins rate cuts, coming to a place near you soon

Fiat Ponzi

[bull....]

Markets about to take it's last big final epic spew, leverage positions smashed, something breaks and the markets start to recover as FED begins rate cuts, coming to a place near you soon

Fiat Ponzi

actually in most other bear markets when the fed has begun pivot and start cutting rates the market has continued down

[LEMON]

actually in most other bear markets when the fed has begun pivot and start cutting rates the market has continued down

This is true, either way, the last rate hike happened I believe, FED is just a psychological lever anyway, the rate hikes are just a way to play with the market and retail emotions, the FED doesnt really have much power they just react to data
I think the bear market is close to finishing however it goes

[LEMON]

actually in most other bear markets when the fed has begun pivot and start cutting rates the market has continued down

On the pivot though bull, usually a pivot signifies a change from tightening to expansion, I don't believe the pivot this time will be QE into high inflation not for some time but a cutting of rates only, what's your view?

[alokdhir]

Heck alokdhir …what’s up today on US markets

But good that NZ won’t be having a recession next year

Reached 200 SMA so this happens ...as we are rangebound for another 6 months or so ....now focus will shift to supports ...last one is 3600 ...but shud not reach there easy ...it's a contracting range scenario ...but U know TA better then me rookie :p

[bull....]

xmas day is fast approaching and now that the santa rally has finished this week maybe its time as liquidity dries up towards end next week to start focusing on tiding up the portfolio ready for the holidays :t_up:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz8yJogJEEM

[bull....]

looks like real money is leaving equities and the 60/40 portfolio is coming back in

Real-Money Funds Dump $100 Billion of Stocks on Rebalancing


The world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year, adding to a selloff that’s snowballed since Jerome Powell’s unequivocal message (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/powell-sees-rates-higher-for-longer-amid-wall-street-skepticism) that policymakers will press on with aggressive tightening at the risk of job cuts and a recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/pension-wealth-funds-dump-100-billion-of-stocks-in-quarter-end-rebalancing?srnd=premium-asia&leadSource=uverify%20wall

[alokdhir]

I am waiting for NZ Herald's next year Broker's picks competition to be published ...that shud provide something to our boring NZX ...:D

[Curly]

I remember an old investor saying falling house prices, rising share prices.
So much fear generated since covid. Market does not like it.

[LEMON]

looks like real money is leaving equities and the 60/40 portfolio is coming back in

Real-Money Funds Dump $100 Billion of Stocks on Rebalancing


The world’s biggest money managers are set to unload up to $100 billion of stocks in the final few weeks of the year, adding to a selloff that’s snowballed since Jerome Powell’s unequivocal message (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/powell-sees-rates-higher-for-longer-amid-wall-street-skepticism) that policymakers will press on with aggressive tightening at the risk of job cuts and a recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-17/pension-wealth-funds-dump-100-billion-of-stocks-in-quarter-end-rebalancing?srnd=premium-asia&leadSource=uverify%20wall


2-year treasury is calling a JP bluff, no more rate hikes, big market dump incoming

[bull....]

NZ consumer confidence falls to lowest point on record - Westpac
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-consumer-confidence-falls-to-lowest-point-on-record-westpac/R2KYG2NN3NDZXPXWZ53ZQ52DYA/

[winner69]

NZ consumer confidence falls to lowest point on record - Westpac
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-consumer-confidence-falls-to-lowest-point-on-record-westpac/R2KYG2NN3NDZXPXWZ53ZQ52DYA/

…….and the rich households feeling as gloomy as the poor ones …wow

[bull....]

…….and the rich households feeling as gloomy as the poor ones …wow

rich gloomy cause there assets all falling i guess anyway what ya think nasdaq in danger of ending year at lows?

[winner69]

Businesses feeling down in dumps …even their own activity outlook

From Sharon at ANZ
The RBNZ appears to have achieved shock value with the November MPS. @ANZ_NZ Business confidence hit at a record low in December, with many activity indicators around GFC levels.
https://watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Business_Outlook_shock_value.pdf?data=DhZAW 5pNirsgovBdALYwomrNyXdpUKxDB7RxefLNZ79DdE3IwkjikhC o7OhrEBsP6Uagmgj6B6pPDNlZhuh3q7PVWhJKgz1G4y3Pa2gtv jJmZXe1ybJXF8omQ%2F%2FM7zjwHyPlR%2B6bbE0q6n19105TI pLNmBvw7C7T3UVCfKe%2BbA%2FXswSnhI8hbDbWHrHNdVsS%2F %2FBbA%2FqVwH4q%2Bn9s%2BPEW0x3g971Je21WsHhVT7lO7kH iZ4vXW4wxIwLWKRtk2reDeypcQCS%2FCc0Vo8Oh9VutGF8zMkn lpCl2K7z9TLCHNd0ur3JMXxvddvamaftF8UN6iw%2Fk%2Bv%2F qWDDLgcogd4HAO8tIpp67S3%2FJtv8DgWvoLDAyn%2F5sUTvNn NEcScYvzzcalrbIby%2B0GBEMcropB0p6QyyMKUc50pHPW8J13 qF1elFTwrc833Me91q52mb2vHF9lZfyV%2Bk9dTm1nt4xXbCke Q2UGz1%2BMCboHuDDW1j8zVQ%2BUjwmshr3z7i8QzJijQJq4Au voHi083v%2F4aqPRAvQkQ3vL6nA5LQrricptwMmNqsvhsO6Kck rIa1Jr9f2XvVJKTfdAsBBVbTQN%2B%2Bi59OK1h9hVumIazJRq hyYW4LJ%2BTzXqSVSGIrg6ZP1zjp6TKCKxVc5kjBpCJvOz6hhe %2BSwyvkKhW%2FFYVGEQFuDL1qC%2BejFgGb4zfsxOM1tVsxzU oaArDNrsnxms6QExrljpyhUFonHkiwqcdePKHaQfOve3YBWlIO 4Ih3JzjgkU3CCYOQcD49guv64lXY%2BOyuZc73yYB2B9jk%2Fc 98dHpAYe6g9lVOzcF8BzPQdZcZZWY4tuUJ3&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Business_Outlook_shock_va lue.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3D9ecd01f5faf49c8803dbb98467850921ce2ed3 95a8ced45fc08bbb9095fa4897%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAZGZPZQBPX2SV22UN%252F20221220%252 Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20221220T000000Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost

[BlackPeter]

Businesses feeling down in dumps …even their own activity outlook

From Sharon at ANZ
The RBNZ appears to have achieved shock value with the November MPS. @ANZ_NZ Business confidence hit at a record low in December, with many activity indicators around GFC levels.
https://watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Business_Outlook_shock_value.pdf?data=DhZAW 5pNirsgovBdALYwomrNyXdpUKxDB7RxefLNZ79DdE3IwkjikhC o7OhrEBsP6Uagmgj6B6pPDNlZhuh3q7PVWhJKgz1G4y3Pa2gtv jJmZXe1ybJXF8omQ%2F%2FM7zjwHyPlR%2B6bbE0q6n19105TI pLNmBvw7C7T3UVCfKe%2BbA%2FXswSnhI8hbDbWHrHNdVsS%2F %2FBbA%2FqVwH4q%2Bn9s%2BPEW0x3g971Je21WsHhVT7lO7kH iZ4vXW4wxIwLWKRtk2reDeypcQCS%2FCc0Vo8Oh9VutGF8zMkn lpCl2K7z9TLCHNd0ur3JMXxvddvamaftF8UN6iw%2Fk%2Bv%2F qWDDLgcogd4HAO8tIpp67S3%2FJtv8DgWvoLDAyn%2F5sUTvNn NEcScYvzzcalrbIby%2B0GBEMcropB0p6QyyMKUc50pHPW8J13 qF1elFTwrc833Me91q52mb2vHF9lZfyV%2Bk9dTm1nt4xXbCke Q2UGz1%2BMCboHuDDW1j8zVQ%2BUjwmshr3z7i8QzJijQJq4Au voHi083v%2F4aqPRAvQkQ3vL6nA5LQrricptwMmNqsvhsO6Kck rIa1Jr9f2XvVJKTfdAsBBVbTQN%2B%2Bi59OK1h9hVumIazJRq hyYW4LJ%2BTzXqSVSGIrg6ZP1zjp6TKCKxVc5kjBpCJvOz6hhe %2BSwyvkKhW%2FFYVGEQFuDL1qC%2BejFgGb4zfsxOM1tVsxzU oaArDNrsnxms6QExrljpyhUFonHkiwqcdePKHaQfOve3YBWlIO 4Ih3JzjgkU3CCYOQcD49guv64lXY%2BOyuZc73yYB2B9jk%2Fc 98dHpAYe6g9lVOzcF8BzPQdZcZZWY4tuUJ3&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Business_Outlook_shock_va lue.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3D9ecd01f5faf49c8803dbb98467850921ce2ed3 95a8ced45fc08bbb9095fa4897%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAZGZPZQBPX2SV22UN%252F20221220%252 Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20221220T000000Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost

Capitulation near? This would be good :) :

But I guess it just shows that Orr is doing an amazing job in crashing the economy. First he kept interest rates too long too low, than he pushed interest rates too fast too high ... and than he jawboned consumer confidence too low.

Maybe we do need ACT back in government, he might be an appropriate candidate for the three strikes legislation?

[winner69]

Capitulation near? This would be good :) :

But I guess it just shows that Orr is doing an amazing job in crashing the economy. First he kept interest rates too long too low, than he pushed interest rates too fast too high ... and than he jawboned consumer confidence too low.

Maybe we do need ACT back in government, he might be an appropriate candidate for the three strikes legislation?

No worries Peter …Grant is going to ward off the recession

Finance Minister’s plan to ward off recession

https://www.nbr.co.nz/politics/the-finance-ministers-plan-to-ward-off-recession/

Didn’t bother read it …just political stuff

[bull....]

BOJ just thru a hand grenade in the mix ... volatility become big now

[nztx]

No worries Peter …Grant is going to ward off the recession

Finance Minister’s plan to ward off recession

https://www.nbr.co.nz/politics/the-finance-ministers-plan-to-ward-off-recession/

Didn’t bother read it …just political stuff


Should we pool together and all shout him a bigger fly swat for Christmas ? ;)


Perhaps someone could quickly jot down some brief instructions on how to use it too :)

[winner69]

Dairy prices down overnight …whole milk powder down 4%

Not a good end to year

[alokdhir]

BOJ just thru a hand grenade in the mix ... volatility become big now




BOJ finally trying to close the tap of cheap money ...this shud help increase effective inter bank rates thus mortgage etc without need for stronger Central banks action ...this is actually good for worldwide Inflation control

World can do well without any cheap source of funds though currency risks do make it little complicated to use cheap Japanese funds in other countries !

[Aaron]

BOJ finally trying to close the tap of cheap money ...this shud help increase effective inter bank rates thus mortgage etc without need for stronger Central banks action ...this is actually good for worldwide Inflation control

World can do well without any cheap source of funds though currency risks do make it little complicated to use cheap Japanese funds in other countries !

I don't really understand the significance but suppressing yields at a range of .5% to -.5% instead of zero assuming they aim for the middle of their target range is a big nothing burger isn't it?

To me it sounds more like trying to sound less crazy without doing anything.

How the yen still has any value is beyond my understanding.

[BlackPeter]

I don't really understand the significance but suppressing yields at a range of .5% to -.5% instead of zero assuming they aim for the middle of their target range is a big nothing burger isn't it?

To me it sounds more like trying to sound less crazy without doing anything.

How the yen still has any value is beyond my understanding.

Interest rates are not everything. Don't forget - Japan is the third largest economy in the world, and the yen is its currency. If you want to buy anything in Japan you need them.

[bull....]

BOJ finally trying to close the tap of cheap money ...this shud help increase effective inter bank rates thus mortgage etc without need for stronger Central banks action ...this is actually good for worldwide Inflation control

World can do well without any cheap source of funds though currency risks do make it little complicated to use cheap Japanese funds in other countries !

if they are normalizing policy it will have big impacts on many markets around the world in time. japan is one of the biggest global investors mainly because they had to search for yield cause japan offered nothing. normalisation will cause some money to flow back to japan

[alokdhir]

if they are normalizing policy it will have big impacts on many markets around the world in time. japan is one of the biggest global investors mainly because they had to search for yield cause japan offered nothing. normalisation will cause some money to flow back to japan

Agree ...thats why wrote " Biggest source of cheap funds " ...trend will start to reverse ...resulting in Dearer money everywhere ...its helpful for Central Banks as it will reduce money supply in their economies without they needing to work harder to get those tight monetary conditions ...thus helping in Inflation fight but also helping in actually reducing terminal rates required and higher for longer requirements to do the same job ...as now they get additional support from money returning home ie to Japan ...that trend had caused great trouble for long time ...search for Global Yield theme !!

[Aaron]

Interest rates are not everything. Don't forget - Japan is the third largest economy in the world, and the yen is its currency. If you want to buy anything in Japan you need them.

Thanks, that makes sense. I had thought they were printing faster than everyone else. Assuming a growing balance sheet indicated money printing going on.

Quick google search Japan between 2010 and 2020 up roughly 200% and the USA up 300% according to trading economics so relatively the same. On that basis alone the yen should have strengthened against the USD.

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/central-bank-balance-sheet#:~:text=Central%20Bank%20Balance%20Sheet%20i n%20Japan%20averaged%20140875.19%20JPY%20Billion,B illion%20in%20January%20of%201970.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-balance-sheet

Look at NZ Adrian obviously not wanting our dollar to strengthen and to be like other important central bankers. I had thought he only doubled the size of the balance sheet that chart shows a bit more than doubling. Now I am unsure what these figures represent or if they are accurate.

https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/central-bank-balance-sheet

[daveypnz]

Tesla getting obliterated.

[bull....]

think mentioned last week nasdaq end the yr at lows :scared: nearly there today ..... will it bounce or will it power to new lows ..... place your bets

[alokdhir]

think mentioned last week nasdaq end the yr at lows :scared: nearly there today ..... will it bounce or will it power to new lows ..... place your bets

I remember recently we ended at low of the cycle on Xmas eve ...will it be same ...all possibilities can materialise in the short term ...but in real long term only one option works especially with good quality stocks .

[nztx]

I remember recently we ended at low of the cycle on Xmas eve ...will it be same ...all possibilities can materialise in the short term ...but in real long term only one option works especially with good quality stocks .


Has anything paralleled the very dark economic storm clouds looming for 2023 going forwards ? ;)

[bull....]

I remember recently we ended at low of the cycle on Xmas eve ...will it be same ...all possibilities can materialise in the short term ...but in real long term only one option works especially with good quality stocks .

like enron ? even good quality stocks need attention from time to time anyway merry xmas everyone

[mike2020]

Has anything paralleled the very dark economic storm clouds looming for 2023 going forwards ? ;)

The GFC was bad for me. It looked bad in other countries then as well. Banks failing. People loosing homes and jobs. Somehow, and I hope I'm right, it just does not feel like the same level of catastrophe pending. It's like we are all seeing the potential and the obvious negativity but ignoring the possibility of something positive emerging (alien intervention maybe)

[nztx]

The GFC was bad for me. It looked bad in other countries then as well. Banks failing. People loosing homes and jobs. Somehow, and I hope I'm right, it just does not feel like the same level of catastrophe pending. It's like we are all seeing the potential and the obvious negativity but ignoring the possibility of something positive emerging (alien intervention maybe)


1987 for those who went through it too. Many lost vast fortunes. Some did well, the ones smart enough
to short it on the large collapse

[BlackPeter]

think mentioned last week nasdaq end the yr at lows :scared: nearly there today ..... will it bounce or will it power to new lows ..... place your bets


Has anything paralleled the very dark economic storm clouds looming for 2023 going forwards ? ;)

You won't live longer for being worried all of the time nor for spreading black sludge all of the time, so - sure, be prepared, but spare yourself as well as us the scare mongering. It is unhealthy and depressing for yourself as well as for others.

2023 might be difficult, or it might be not. Who knows. But nobody will give you back the hours you spent to scaremonger about the future and to scare yourself.

I am sure the sun will still rise come 2023, 2024 and many years thereafter. I know that mankind survived already many more tin hat dictators and economic crisis as well as Cassandras than any of us has fingers and toes attached to their extremities - and it always came out stronger out of the crisis than when it entered it.

And hey - even in really difficult times there always have been better places than others to be ... and actually, I think NZ is one of these better places.

Enjoy life ...

[lawson]

So much for the Santa rally. Looks like Santa got run over by a reindeer. Will he pick himself up? Guess it depends on the PCE inflation number out overnight (our time)

[Bobdn]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/ira-balances-dropped-market-volatility-retirement-savings?dicbo=v2-dfc083b22e6ac4cf252e6706f5b57732

If one is still working, and contributing to funds, these bear markets are happy days. They don't always last long, however.

"And even bear markets, or declines of 20% or more in a major stock market index, tend to be short-lived. Since 1928, there have been only 26 bear markets in the S&P 500 index, a common stock market benchmark, according to research (https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html) by investment management firm Hartford Funds. And the average length for a bear market is 9.6 months, while the average bull market when stocks are rising lasts 2.7 years, Hartford Funds said in its report."

[LEMON]

Equity market put/call predicting a market dump on route

[bull....]

think mentioned last week nasdaq end the yr at lows :scared: nearly there today ..... will it bounce or will it power to new lows ..... place your bets

nasdaq right on cue probably due to the big jump in bond yields lately. esp NZ bonds huge jump last week odd :scared:

[alokdhir]

nasdaq right on cue probably due to the big jump in bond yields lately. esp NZ bonds huge jump last week odd :scared:

Year end low liquidity and tax loss selling etc ...they are setting u up for big bounce in new year mate !! lol

[bull....]

Year end low liquidity and tax loss selling etc ...they are setting u up for big bounce in new year mate !! lol

big bounce or big flop guess we will find out soon

NZ stocks must get hit soon NZ 10 yr up very strong again today nearing all time highs current cycle. maybe pricing in ORR coming back from holiday and having to hike more ?

[alokdhir]

big bounce or big flop guess we will find out soon

NZ stocks must get hit soon NZ 10 yr up very strong again today nearing all time highs current cycle. maybe pricing in ORR coming back from holiday and having to hike more ?

Just heard a conversation on CNBC ...almost all big funds are very high on cash ..." waiting for the expected Messy Time to deploy the funds" ...wow ...means lots of money waiting to get in at right levels ... I wonder if that messy times never come then will FOMO will get them in at higher levels eventually ??

Just thinking of that possibility gives me parabolic rise graphs dreams ...lol

[BlackPeter]

Just heard a conversation on CNBC ...almost all big funds are very high on cash ..." waiting for the expected Messy Time to deploy the funds" ...wow ...means lots of money waiting to get in at right levels ... I wonder if that messy times never come then will FOMO will get them in at higher levels eventually ??

Just thinking of that possibility gives me parabolic rise graphs dreams ...lol

Quite likely to happen - I guess if the funds don't buy, than nobody does (following basic TA). However - if nobody buys, nobody makes money. Just a question when greed gets stronger than fear.

Many stocks (particularly international ones) do look dead-cheap ... and a good number of my European shares (no growth shares, all solid industry producing stuff people need) are already in the green zone (above MA200 and many past the golden cross) - so, I guess unless we have a black swan, a Bloodymir or a Jinping goes Taiwan event, we well might see this parabolic rise coming earlier rather than later.

But that's the thing with stock prices ... nobody can predict them. For what it is worth - I started spending some of my cash :) - not a fan of waiting for a confirmed bottom and then chase the crowd bidding everything up like crazy - I prefer to buy deep value steady and over a longer timeframe.

[winner69]

Just heard a conversation on CNBC ...almost all big funds are very high on cash ..." waiting for the expected Messy Time to deploy the funds" ...wow ...means lots of money waiting to get in at right levels ... I wonder if that messy times never come then will FOMO will get them in at higher levels eventually ??

Just thinking of that possibility gives me parabolic rise graphs dreams ...lol

Funds high on cash ….where didactologias that cash from alokdhir?

[winner69]

At least NZX did go down today …ASX pummelled today …one headline saidcsinks to 7 week low

[alokdhir]

Funds high on cash ….where didactologias that cash from alokdhir?

I was not allowed to ask questions mate !!! So I believed when I heard few fund managers saying we are big on cash and waiting to deploy them when soon markets will become messy ...hope u got it that it was on CNBC I was referring to ...:p

[Panda-NZ-]

APPL PE ratio (2014) - 10 (when cash rate was 0%)
APPL PE ratio (2022) - 22

Would be carnage if the market thought even a PE of 10 is too high given the cash rate now.

[FTG]

At least NZX did go down today …ASX pummelled today …one headline saidcsinks to 7 week low

XJO continuing to look a little ominous. Now pretty much sitting on significant support at circa 7000 and the 200EMA.
A continued breakdown through here would see 6600-6700 in pretty quick order IMO.

[bull....]

XJO continuing to look a little ominous. Now pretty much sitting on significant support at circa 7000 and the 200EMA.
A continued breakdown through here would see 6600-6700 in pretty quick order IMO.

im in your camp .. xjo to retest 6400 - 6500 area.
my thinking based on china relaxing covid rules meaning there economy becomes swamped with covid problems and growth slows dramatically ( not that we will ever know lol from official figure's)

[BlackPeter]

APPL PE ratio (2014) - 10 (when cash rate was 0%)
APPL PE ratio (2022) - 22

Would be carnage if the market thought even a PE of 10 is too high given the cash rate now.

Hmm - I guess who would invest in Apple anyway :) ?

Volkswagen has currently a forward PE of 4.3! - but then, who would invest in Volkswagen?
Mercedes Benz (the car company) is currently going for a forward PE of 5.4, and DTG (Daimler Trucks, incl. some military gear) for 9.3;

Now - this is cheap. How much cheaper do we think it will get?

I guess - sure, it may, but where is the borderline between caution and outrageous greed?

[SailorRob]

Hmm - I guess who would invest in Apple anyway :) ?

Volkswagen has currently a forward PE of 4.3! - but then, who would invest in Volkswagen?
Mercedes Benz (the car company) is currently going for a forward PE of 5.4, and DTG (Daimler Trucks, incl. some military gear) for 9.3;

Now - this is cheap. How much cheaper do we think it will get?

I guess - sure, it may, but where is the borderline between caution and outrageous greed?

No such thing as a forward PE. Check the cash flows of those autos over last decade against the earnings. Earnings are just accounting stories.

[SailorRob]

I was not allowed to ask questions mate !!! So I believed when I heard few fund managers saying we are big on cash and waiting to deploy them when soon markets will become messy ...hope u got it that it was on CNBC I was referring to ...:p

Where does said cash go when they buy?

[winner69]

ASX not off to a good start for 2023 …down 1.7% at one stage

[SailorRob]

ASX not off to a good start for 2023 …down 1.7% at one stage

Supermarket food prices are collapsing, awful start to the new year.

What next to fall, petrol prices?

The horror.

This is terrible.

[Gerald]

Yes I filled the freezer today with $4 whole chickens from Countdown. Not sure if just christmas overstocking or what?

However apparently the bond guys are the gurus and with NZ and US bonds approaching all time high yeilds again maybe they see something else.

[winner69]

economists and traders currently think Fed will cut in 2023

[alokdhir]

economists and traders currently think Fed will cut in 2023

That's based on their view that we will be in recession but that mayn't happen but inflation going much below FED rates may be a factor for that to happen ...still its a 50/50 call ...will also depend upon how high they go now ....if really to 5.25-5.50% then more chance ...

[bull....]

economists and traders currently think Fed will cut in 2023

they be wrong if they read fed minutes this morning ..... i had nothing better to do as weather gone to s...t

[bull....]

wouldnt read to much into trading action on US markets at the moment. chopping around in a smaller trading range since dec 20 ( 3770 - 3900 odd ) , within a bigger trading range ( 3570 - 4100 ) so breakout or breakdown will determine more meaningful direction in respect to the ranges.

US adp data pretty strong so reinforces fed minutes yesterday

See EU to require negative covid test from china following in the steps of many countries.
NZ an outlier now in regard to this? does that mean all china positive cases will come to holiday in NZ now :scared: and on that note i guess the slowdown in china caused by covid overwlming there country just like everywhere else at the start of pandemic means nz will have a bigger recession ?

anyway the rain has cause havoc for me not being able to enjoy my deck chair at this time of year and thinking about it dec and now jan the rain is unseasonally wet will this have dire consequences on some food prices in nz to come this yr ? orr might not be happy about the food inflation consequences

[Rawz]

The rain is nice. The tomatoes and figs are loving it!

[Balance]

The rain is nice. The tomatoes and figs are loving it!

So do the weeds!

[nztx]

The rain is nice. The tomatoes and figs are loving it!


could be a month of .. Green Mondays ?

[see weed]

So do the weeds!
Tell me about

[nztx]

Tell me about

and me too

[JBmurc]

wouldnt read to much into trading action on US markets at the moment. chopping around in a smaller trading range since dec 20 ( 3770 - 3900 odd ) , within a bigger trading range ( 3570 - 4100 ) so breakout or breakdown will determine more meaningful direction in respect to the ranges.

US adp data pretty strong so reinforces fed minutes yesterday

See EU to require negative covid test from china following in the steps of many countries.
NZ an outlier now in regard to this? does that mean all china positive cases will come to holiday in NZ now :scared: and on that note i guess the slowdown in china caused by covid overwlming there country just like everywhere else at the start of pandemic means nz will have a bigger recession ?

anyway the rain has cause havoc for me not being able to enjoy my deck chair at this time of year and thinking about it dec and now jan the rain is unseasonally wet will this have dire consequences on some food prices in nz to come this yr ? orr might not be happy about the food inflation consequences

need to send some of the rain south are only rain shower last week lasted couple minutes >>> so very dry and browning off ...

Talk of black Monday.... Recession FEAR... glad I stuck to my longer term fundamentals ..up over A$100k so far this week ...

[stoploss]

need to send some of the rain south are only rain shower last week lasted couple minutes >>> so very dry and browning off ...

Talk of black Monday.... Recession FEAR... glad I stuck to my longer term fundamentals ..up over A$100k so far this week ...

Jan 2022 was a good month as well ........

[JBmurc]

Jan 2022 was a good month as well ........

Yes I'm hoping we will see another great start to the year for 1Q23 ...will be taking some funds out during FEB-MARCH to pay APRIL-MAY.. TAXs and in few more months a company loan in JUL.... need about A$350k ... few more good weeks should do it ...

[stoploss]

Yes I'm hoping we will see another great start to the year for 1Q23 ...will be taking some funds out during FEB-MARCH to pay APRIL-MAY.. TAXs and in few more months a company loan in JUL.... need about A$350k ... few more good weeks should do it ...
Great work ,keep smashing it .

[SailorRob]

wouldnt read to much into trading action on US markets at the moment. chopping around in a smaller trading range since dec 20 ( 3770 - 3900 odd ) , within a bigger trading range ( 3570 - 4100 ) so breakout or breakdown will determine more meaningful direction in respect to the ranges.

US adp data pretty strong so reinforces fed minutes yesterday

See EU to require negative covid test from china following in the steps of many countries.
NZ an outlier now in regard to this? does that mean all china positive cases will come to holiday in NZ now :scared: and on that note i guess the slowdown in china caused by covid overwlming there country just like everywhere else at the start of pandemic means nz will have a bigger recession ?

anyway the rain has cause havoc for me not being able to enjoy my deck chair at this time of year and thinking about it dec and now jan the rain is unseasonally wet will this have dire consequences on some food prices in nz to come this yr ? orr might not be happy about the food inflation consequences


'The rain is unseasonally (sic) wet'

Hmmm.

[alokdhir]

When all ready for bust ...Boom comes ...thats typical markets ...with 80% or more market participants negative short term ....chances are good we may have a big rally ahead ...U never know it may even reach 4200 or some kind of short squeeze ....Dec CPI data is the only missing key ahead ...if it cooperates for bulls then we may have it

[SailorRob]

When all ready for bust ...Boom comes ...thats typical markets ...with 80% or more market participants negative short term ....chances are good we may have a big rally ahead ...U never know it may even reach 4200 or some kind of short squeeze ....Dec CPI data is the only missing key ahead ...if it cooperates for bulls then we may have it


Yes, how many recessions have come right when every single person in the land from the window washing boy through to the reserve bank governor and everyone in between absolutely knows it is coming.

Not generally how things work.

[FTG]

...with 80% or more market participants negative short term ....chances are good we may have a big rally ahead ...

Mmmmm....

Not sure where that 80% figure comes from Alokdhir?

If we put aside any rose-tinted (or dark) glasses, and attempt to look at the real market sentiment with some objectivity, what do we see?


- The VIX (currently at 21) continues to languish close to its 12 month lows and in fact is pretty much at the 15 yr Median level. A case of, "nothing to see....move along"?
- Most recent (Mid-Dec) Bloomberg survey of US Money Managers found that over 70% predict equities will RISE in 2023.
- Most Funds (at least members of the 'Big Boys Club') continue to report Funds inflow; certainly not outflows.
- Individual US investor sentiment is also pretty neutral, with over 50% stating a neutral to bullish sentiment.

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

- As an aside, NZ investor NET sentiment is also currently neutral-Bullish.

https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/nz-retail-investor-sentiment-index/


It seems that things are perhaps far more benign/'complacent' that some may think, or yearn for? Enough so, that the current status poses the age-old question "Is it the calm before, or after, the storm"?

And of course the caveat to all this, is that we are just talking about sentiment, not anything particularly rational & analytical. In other words the emotional state of the market. Which as we know, can turn on a Dime!:)

[winner69]

If its not 50/50 its generally 80/20 ….maybe that’s where alokdhirs 80% came from

[alokdhir]

If its not 50/50 its generally 80/20 ….maybe that’s where alokdhirs 80% came from

U r so right about such stuff mate ...reason being that u have seen it all and know fully well that history keeps repeating in stock markets at least ...lol

Who will argue against the fact that more people are bearish then bullish at present ...from there I think 80% comes ...:p

[Bobdn]

I'm listening to Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long-run, 6th edition and hot off the press. I love it because I'm a big believer in stocks for the long run as long as those stocks are in broad indexes/ETF.

Do you, dear reader, think it's astounding that over the last couple of centuries the average real return, ie taking into account inflation, of the US market is 6.7 per cent? That takes into account last year's bear market.The NZ and Australian market is close to this as well and the real return of the world market overall, ex USA, is 5.4 per cent. Which is still excellent when you consider that this is after inflation. I'd happily take 5.4 per cent real return per year.

[Bjauck]

I'm listening to Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long-run, 6th edition and hot off the press. I love it because I'm a big believer in stocks for the long run as long as those stocks are in broad indexes/ETF.

Do you, dear reader, think it's astounding that over the last couple of centuries the average real return, ie taking into account inflation, of the US market is 6.7 per cent? That takes into account last year's bear market.The NZ and Australian market is close to this as well and the real return of the world market overall, ex USA, is 5.4 per cent. Which is still excellent when you consider that this is after inflation. I'd happily take 5.4 per cent real return per year.Are those figures gross (before income and Capital gains taxes)?

[bull....]

When all ready for bust ...Boom comes ...thats typical markets ...with 80% or more market participants negative short term ....chances are good we may have a big rally ahead ...U never know it may even reach 4200 or some kind of short squeeze ....Dec CPI data is the only missing key ahead ...if it cooperates for bulls then we may have it

if you use this site for sentiment i would say 80% of participants are bullish all the time and the other 20% change there tune depending on market direction
So then does that mean 80% of participants of this site are wrong and and have been wrong most of the time on the market direction ? hence meaning they will have a lower probability of outperforming the market
and the other 20% of participants are right on the market direction most of the time ? and hence have a higher probability of outperforming the market

[Bobdn]

@Bjauck: I think they would be gross figures.

The assumption is shares are held forever and all dividends reinvested.

[alokdhir]

if you use this site for sentiment i would say 80% of participants are bullish all the time and the other 20% change there tune depending on market direction
So then does that mean 80% of participants of this site are wrong and and have been wrong most of the time on the market direction ? hence meaning they will have a lower probability of outperforming the market
and the other 20% of participants are right on the market direction most of the time ? and hence have a higher probability of outperforming the market

I am sure u got the sentiment of the site wrong mate ...also the time frame mentioned was short term ahead ...IMHO most of our members are bearish near term and u thought its only U ...lol

But if u disagree then its very fine ...no worries mate . Try to see what I meant also try to understand what I said at first place ...I just said it may happen ..."May"

Will see what happens ...in even medium term it doesn't matter as even U think after making a low in first qtr we will end the year better ...so there is hope for foolish bulls like me :p

[Rawz]

Never sell and buy the dip

[alokdhir]

Never sell and buy the dip

Did u buy back your FPH which u sold around $ 25 ...:p

[Rawz]

Did u buy back your FPH which u sold around $ 25 ...:p

No lol. Winner said it was going to $14 so im waiting still :p

[alokdhir]

No lol. Winner said it was going to $14 so im waiting still :p

He still thinks it can go there lol

But I am sure he added a few to his already a sizeable holding :D

[Balance]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/crypto-panic-at-silvergate-spawns-a-new-breed-of-bank-run?leadSource=uverify%20wall

The death throes of crypto - only manipulators, mugs and dumbos left in the crypto gutter.

An excellent indication that inflection point for financials market is not that far off.

[bull....]

I am sure u got the sentiment of the site wrong mate ...also the time frame mentioned was short term ahead ...IMHO most of our members are bearish near term and u thought its only U ...lol

But if u disagree then its very fine ...no worries mate . Try to see what I meant also try to understand what I said at first place ...I just said it may happen ..."May"

Will see what happens ...in even medium term it doesn't matter as even U think after making a low in first qtr we will end the year better ...so there is hope for foolish bulls like me :p

i never say it bottom in first quarter and im not bearish either. As i said its in a trading range which would imply im neutral and means i can be both bullish and bearish within the range as far as stock picking goes.

[alokdhir]

i never say it bottom in first quarter and im not bearish either. As i said its in a trading range which would imply im neutral and means i can be both bullish and bearish within the range as far as stock picking goes.

Ok..then my bad as I thought U have a bearish bias ...maybe got that feeling from vast majority of your bearish posts ...normally u get excited when markets tanks so fools us in thinking u a happy bear ...lol

[alokdhir]

Dr Copper now over the $ 4.00 ....Hoop's threshold of suggesting it has bottomed out

If thats the case then as it's being almost 100% true leading indicator of stock market state ...it shud be safe to assume that stock markets have bottomed !!!

Will Dr Copper indicator work this time too ? Hopefully yes ...as it worked 100% for him historically as per his insightful previous posts

[Entrep]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/crypto-panic-at-silvergate-spawns-a-new-breed-of-bank-run?leadSource=uverify%20wall

The death throes of crypto - only manipulators, mugs and dumbos left in the crypto gutter.

An excellent indication that inflection point for financials market is not that far off.

Do you have a point at which you will admit to being wrong? If crypto pumps again, will you go quiet again until the next bear market?

[Balance]

Do you have a point at which you will admit to being wrong? If crypto pumps again, will you go quiet again until the next bear market?

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8a9fa83f-c2b2-3dfb-a245-5d5014d86ba8/banks-are-fleeing-crypto-.html

Crypto collapse imo is one of the key inflection points for financial markets to start trending higher sustainably and it's going to accelerate this year.

What's your problem?

You actually did not see the likes of FTX happening?

https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/HXT2IWNQMZBUDAT6S5CXMQASZY.jpg

https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/AIZ2EYO45JDGZESMFFE3H22YY4.jpg

[clip]

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/8a9fa83f-c2b2-3dfb-a245-5d5014d86ba8/banks-are-fleeing-crypto-.html

Crypto collapse imo is one of the key inflection points for financial markets to start trending higher sustainably and it's going to accelerate this year.

What's your problem?

You actually did not see the likes of FTX happening?

https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/HXT2IWNQMZBUDAT6S5CXMQASZY.jpg

https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/AIZ2EYO45JDGZESMFFE3H22YY4.jpg

FTX is not crypto. FTX collapse does not mean crypto collapse. Even binance collapse does not mean crypto collapse. There is so much institutional money in crypto now, when major indices e.g. S&P500 move down, crypto moves down, and the same when moving upwards. When the major markets start to move upwards, crypto will as well.

E.g.
https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/G8XlSpRPd9jCk4RnlOiLgWJjwpQ=/arc-photo-coindesk/arc2-prod/public/PCO2IJPORZHHPKRCKZQQ23ATLM.png

[Entrep]

What's your problem?

You actually did not see the likes of FTX happening?



What problem? I asked a simple question. You can't answer it.

[Balance]

What problem? I asked a simple question. You can't answer it.

What is there to answer?

And I asked you a simple question - did you actually not see the likes of FTX & Celsius collapsing?

https://cointelegraph.com/news/7-biggest-crypto-collapses-of-2022-the-industry-would-like-to-forget

[clip]

What is there to answer?

And I asked you a simple question - did you actually not see the likes of FTX & Celsius collapsing?

https://cointelegraph.com/news/7-biggest-crypto-collapses-of-2022-the-industry-would-like-to-forget

What do you see as the next big collapse in the crypto industry?

[Entrep]

What is there to answer?

And I asked you a simple question - did you actually not see the likes of FTX & Celsius collapsing?

Do you have a point at which you will admit to being wrong? If crypto pumps again, will you go quiet again until the next bear market?

[LEMON]

What is there to answer?

And I asked you a simple question - did you actually not see the likes of FTX & Celsius collapsing?

https://cointelegraph.com/news/7-biggest-crypto-collapses-of-2022-the-industry-would-like-to-forget

Celsius and FTX were
just classic fiat Ponzi schemes, where a bunch of greedy idiots tried to act like fiat Ponzi fractional banks, "when the tide goes out, you see balance sucking on fiat raisins" is that how the saying goes?

[bull....]

Dr Copper now over the $ 4.00 ....Hoop's threshold of suggesting it has bottomed out

If thats the case then as it's being almost 100% true leading indicator of stock market state ...it shud be safe to assume that stock markets have bottomed !!!

Will Dr Copper indicator work this time too ? Hopefully yes ...as it worked 100% for him historically as per his insightful previous posts

no chance copper is indicating the bottom. why in all history markets have never bottomed before recession starts

[alokdhir]

no chance copper is indicating the bottom. why in all history markets have never bottomed before recession starts

I was just referring to Hoop's post ...if u think its not bottomed then so be it for u ...I know what u saying as all guests on CNBC also say the same that markets bottom after the recession starts ...but keep in mind when did recession start we actually find 6-8 months latter ....

Its always better to have leading indicators then otherwise ...as per Hoop's many posts Dr Copper is one very reliable leading indicator ...also he mentioned if it trades over $ 4 then its safe to assume Dr Copper bottomed and thus stocks in near future ....

[Balance]

Do you have a point at which you will admit to being wrong? If crypto pumps again, will you go quiet again until the next bear market?

For starters, I have commented on crypto be them down or up.

And as I have written before, crypto collapsing is one of the key inflection points for financial markets imo as the excesses of the speculative markets are replaced by fundamental values.

And yes, I have admitted to being wrong - like believing that PEB was going to go to $10 years ago.

And I was also wrong about this government in 2021 that they could not possibly do worse!!!!

You obviously have hog tied yourself to crypto and that’s fine - bad luck to you!

[Entrep]

You obviously have hog tied yourself to crypto and that’s fine - bad luck to you!

I'm in crypto to make money and doing fine.

I'm just fascinated why a successful share investor like yourself (genuinely) takes such a unreasonable/irrational (IMO) position with respect to crypto when history has proven time and time again (https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/) that whatever is going on now is a normal bear cycle.

To make such a concrete assertion, that crypto is in death throes, etc, etc in the face of that information and history, is nonsensical to me.

As for FTX, there are bad actors in any industry (heard of Bernie Madoff?). Heck, you could argue the fact that BTC is still where it is, despite that event, is bullish.

[Balance]

I'm in crypto to make money and doing fine.

I'm just fascinated why a successful share investor like yourself (genuinely) takes such a unreasonable/irrational (IMO) position with respect to crypto when history has proven time and time again (https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/) that whatever is going on now is a normal bear cycle.

To make such a concrete assertion, that crypto is in death throes, etc, etc in the face of that information and history, is nonsensical to me.

As for FTX, there are bad actors in any industry (heard of Bernie Madoff?). Heck, you could argue the fact that BTC is still where it is, despite that event, is bullish.

As is often said, sleep with no whore and you wake up with no hooker.

[Entrep]

As is often said, sleep with no whore and you wake up with no hooker.

Do you walk down the street telling everyone not to sleep with whores too?

[Balance]

Do you walk down the street telling everyone not to sleep with whores too?

Just you. :p

Do chill, Entrep. I have given you my reason for tracking the crypto collapse and you do not have to agree with it.

If I am wrong, so be it and it will not be the first time.

[alokdhir]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130947380/inflation-has-risen-to-78-according-to-massey-forecasting-tool

If our next CPI print is actually as predicted ie 7.8% then RBNZ maybe forced to do 1% hike in Feb meeting !!!

Will NZ markets do their own tanking without US doing so ?? Getting complicated in the short term ....Consumers are holding up pretty well as their jobs are most secured then ever ...how to get economy to slowdown ....6% OCR ??

[sb9]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130947380/inflation-has-risen-to-78-according-to-massey-forecasting-tool

If our next CPI print is actually as predicted ie 7.8% then RBNZ maybe forced to do 1% hike in Feb meeting !!!

Will NZ markets do their own tanking without US doing so ?? Getting complicated in the short term ....Consumers are holding up pretty well as their jobs are most secured then ever ...how to get economy to slowdown ....6% OCR ??

if in fact, actual CPI number comes out at that level, 2023 is doomed and expect another 10-15% drop in property values on back of higher interest rates for longer..

[mike2020]

I'm relieved. All the positivity in the markets had me on edge.

[Sideshow Bob]

I'm relieved. All the positivity in the markets had me on edge.

I'd rather we just had a big bust and get to the bottom quickly!! :scared:

[alokdhir]

I'd rather we just had a big bust and get to the bottom quickly!! :scared:

As almost 80% are looking for that to happen ...maybe thats why it's not happening ...that will be classic capitulation and easily identifiable bottom ...maybe not always markets make it so simple ....but always keep some powder dry ...just in case

I am hoping for a mini boom and bigger bust in next 6 months but its a hope only ...not very sure ...

[Sideshow Bob]

As almost 80% are looking for that to happen ...maybe thats why it's not happening ...that will be classic capitulation and easily identifiable bottom ...maybe not always markets make it so simple ....but always keep some powder dry ...just in case

I am hoping for a mini boom and bigger bust in next 6 months but its a hope only ...not very sure ...

Yes, identifying bottoms, like picking tops isn't that easy.

And we all know that picking bottoms just gets you smelly fingers!! :mellow: (Sorry - too good of an opportunity to resist.....)

[alokdhir]

From US side black Monday is pretty white ....CPI just as expected and its smooth sailing there for another month ....If monetary conditions are easing there how RBNZ tighten here for banks thus public ...our quarterly data out 25th Jan can be ignored as dated if not suitable ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/us-inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-in-more-than-a-year/Q7IHWSZTTRBBJFRXJAUFW6GJQE/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/us-inflation-falls-to-lowest-level-in-more-than-a-year/Q7IHWSZTTRBBJFRXJAUFW6GJQE/)

[winner69]

Whatever this means we should be OK

@hussmanjp
Quick note. With the S&P 500 ticking its upper Bollinger band, kissing the 200-day from below, and within about 16% of most extreme speculative peak in history, "strenuously overbought in a negative Climate" is a fair description here - though nothing decisively rules out more.

[bull....]

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with expectations from economists
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/consumer-prices-fell-0point1percent-in-december-in-line-with-economists-expectations.html

note in the article saying CPI dropped this time due to falling gas prices and this may not happen next time, so i guess you take the report as inflation outlook is still uncertain

anyway the best place to have parked your money in the rally since oct has been gold
maybe benefiting from money flowing out from crypto ?

[ratkin]

Whatever this means we should be OK

@hussmanjp
Quick note. With the S&P 500 ticking its upper Bollinger band, kissing the 200-day from below, and within about 16% of most extreme speculative peak in history, "strenuously overbought in a negative Climate" is a fair description here - though nothing decisively rules out more.

Loosely translated as everything has turned to custard, but the party continues, for now.

[JBmurc]

Hows the cashed up investors going ?? still waiting for the bottom months later ?

[alokdhir]

Hows the cashed up investors going ?? still waiting for the bottom months later ?

They will help to fuel this rally ahead when FOMO hits them lol :p

[bull....]

almost an exact replay of last yr so far. last yr we had energy stocks as the best performer from late 21 into 22 this yr we have gold doing the best from late 22 into early 23 so far up 12% so far the etf is.

lets see how the yr unfolds

[percy]

https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zillhdd-yupddjlly-o/

[jonu]

https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zillhdd-yupddjlly-o/

That's a fun read. Who would have thought brokers have a sense of humour?

[Rawz]

Okay back to work now. Where is the next quick 20% gain to be had? :eek2:

Feeling good after the big run up Smartpay had over the last couple of months

[alokdhir]

Litmus test of Hoop's Dr Copper breakout ahead ...fingers crossed that we make new recent high by crossing 11852 or 4800 on NZ50C index ...that shud set the cat among the pigeons surely .... Need keep mind open ...so waiting patiently to see what future has in store for us

Bull will have some expert opinions for us soon ....:cool:

[Bobdn]

I don't think of copper when I think of the nzx.

[alokdhir]

I don't think of copper when I think of the nzx.

U need to read and understand Hoops historical posts ...its a leading indicator of market bottoms as per him and he had suggested if it crosses $ 4 then it wud be safe to assume that it has bottomed which implied as per his theory that stocks wud have also done so or about to do ....

[bull....]

Litmus test of Hoop's Dr Copper breakout ahead ...fingers crossed that we make new recent high by crossing 11852 or 4800 on NZ50C index ...that shud set the cat among the pigeons surely .... Need keep mind open ...so waiting patiently to see what future has in store for us

Bull will have some expert opinions for us soon ....:cool:

i have already said im neutral at moment as most US indices are in a trading range , just like nzx

[Bobdn]

@Alokdhir I have no cash on the sidelines so I hope Dr Copper is giving the all clear.

[alokdhir]

i have already said im neutral at moment as most US indices are in a trading range , just like nzx

Thats what I mentioned ....Litmus test of your neutrality mate ...soon U will need to pick a side ...Bear or Bull ...hopefully for Bob and me its Bull ...:t_up:

[Bobdn]

It's just easier always being long in the market. I might take a bath this year but over the longer term, I'll be fine. Infact it's nearly impossible to lose money over a 17 year period. In the market that is, not ones favourite 10 to 15 stocks. Still, it's good to have a little bit on the other side just to help out when things get rough - some cash or bonds (useless over the last year sadly).

I'm up to chapter 27 in Stocks for the Long Run. It continues to impress.

I think many will know this: Phillip Morris has had the best returns for any stock from 1926 to 2021. Stock picking is hard.

Even from 1968 - with the litigation, the decline in cigerette consumption, tobacco still smoked the comptetion.

https://money.cnn.com/2015/02/19/investing/americas-best-stock-ever/

Will it continue to be a good investment - who knows. I own everything so I don't care.

[bull....]

inflation outlook

food crisis in nz this yr ? drive food inflation big time this yr in NZ

weather related shortages
co2 issues
egg shortage leading to many price rises across the board
shortages caused by trucks being unable to travel some roads because of pothole's
growers growing less due to not using fertilizer
lack of labour to pick

[alokdhir]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/482542/signs-inflation-coming-off-when-might-interest-rates-drop

BNZ research thinks RBNZ will be surprised on downside print of upcoming inflation on 25th Jan and also suggests RBNZ will acknowledge that in Feb meeting by going 50bips and not 75 as anticipated ....they are of the view labour market is about to turn ...if all goes as per their research or outlook then we are in for good times on NZX in this year ahead

[bull....]

Latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion recorded that a net 73% of businesses expect deteriorating conditions in coming months - the weakest reading in the survey's history dating back to 1961

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/119175/latest-nzier-quarterly-survey-business-opinion-recorded-net-73-businesses-expect

[bull....]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/482542/signs-inflation-coming-off-when-might-interest-rates-drop

BNZ research thinks RBNZ will be surprised on downside print of upcoming inflation on 25th Jan and also suggests RBNZ will acknowledge that in Feb meeting by going 50bips and not 75 as anticipated ....they are of the view labour market is about to turn ...if all goes as per their research or outlook then we are in for good times on NZX in this year ahead

ardern said she is going to focus on the economy this year.
So i guess that means the rate of decline of the economy will be faster hence inflation might well drop quicker

[alokdhir]

ardern said she is going to focus on the economy this year.
So i guess that means the rate of decline of the economy will be faster hence inflation might well drop quicker

Thats a worry if u put it that way ...lol

But we know economy downturn is easily managed with lowering rates which stocks love ...last example covid lows then V shaped recovery as RBNZ went ballistic on downside ...FED also says the same .. " We happy to overkill the inflation as we can always revive the economy easily latter "

[winner69]

OMG the sky is falling

NZIER Business Confidence - Westpac comment:

Looking first at activity, business confidence has plummeted, dropping to its lowest level since 2005. Notably, the past three months saw a sharp fall in trading activity, with a net 13% of businesses reporting weaker trading activity in the December quarter. There was particular weakness in the retail and services sectors.



The majority of businesses expect activity will continue to weaken over the early part of 2023. In particular, builders and retailers are reporting sharp falls in forward orders. Consistent with that, we’ve seen businesses scaling back their plans for hiring and capital expenditure.

[alokdhir]

OMG the sky is falling

NZIER Business Confidence - Westpac comment:

Looking first at activity, business confidence has plummeted, dropping to its lowest level since 2005. Notably, the past three months saw a sharp fall in trading activity, with a net 13% of businesses reporting weaker trading activity in the December quarter. There was particular weakness in the retail and services sectors.



The majority of businesses expect activity will continue to weaken over the early part of 2023. In particular, builders and retailers are reporting sharp falls in forward orders. Consistent with that, we’ve seen businesses scaling back their plans for hiring and capital expenditure.

So in your opinion now OCR will peak where ? 5.5% or lesser and stay there for how long ? 6 months or more ??

[nztx]

ardern said she is going to focus on the economy this year.
So i guess that means the rate of decline of the economy will be faster hence inflation might well drop quicker


more free gifts to the usual quotient ? ;) It is deflection or deflation year after all ..

the problem might be getting the rest to swallow all the shallow BS being spun on what they wind up wearing :)

[winner69]

So in your opinion now OCR will peak where ? 5.5% or lesser and stay there for how long ? 6 months or more ??

Might even go as high as 6% ..... we won't have politics meddling in things in 2023 will we?

[alokdhir]

Might even go as high as 6% ..... we won't have politics meddling in things in 2023 will we?

Ok lets see ...If NZIER report right and BNZ research has any credibility then it cant even go to 5.5% and wont even stay there 6 months as economy will collapse like house of cards ...but both maybe not happen as reality maybe more sanguine then these sensational reports

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/nzier-survey-reveals-firms-pessimistic-about-2023-s-economic-conditions-as-survey-shows-job-ads-in-freefall.html

Maybe this is whats markets celebrating today with big up push ...as markets know what happens next ...:cool:

[Aaron]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/nzier-survey-reveals-firms-pessimistic-about-2023-s-economic-conditions-as-survey-shows-job-ads-in-freefall.html

Maybe this is whats markets celebrating today with big up push ...as markets know what happens next ...:cool:

The old bad news is good for financial markets, I am guessing.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130987717/worst-of-all-worlds-why-business-confidence-survey-suggests-recession-faster-deeper

It suggested profits were “collapsing” and hiring intentions were down, but that costs pressures for businesses remained extremely elevated, the difficulty in finding labour is extreme and their expectations of price rises are as high as ever, the bank said in a research note.

“It’s all starting to look like stagflation on steroids.

“There is no sign inflation is abating in any meaningful way, yet the survey adds more weight to our long-held argument that the economy is headed for recession. Moreover, that recession could come faster, and be much deeper, than many care to believe.”

If prices are still rising in a stagflationary environment will central banks worry about asset prices or price stability overall?

Maybe we should wait until the 25 Jan CPI report. alokdhir knows how financial markets work. Low interest rates and easy money.

If CPI is still high in the next CPI report and the stock market is falling due to reduced earnings and pressure to provide a return on investment in a world with moderate interest rates Adrian will be torn between his personal mandate of elevating asset prices and his official mandate of providing price stability.

[alokdhir]

The old bad news is good for financial markets, I am guessing.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130987717/worst-of-all-worlds-why-business-confidence-survey-suggests-recession-faster-deeper

It suggested profits were “collapsing” and hiring intentions were down, but that costs pressures for businesses remained extremely elevated, the difficulty in finding labour is extreme and their expectations of price rises are as high as ever, the bank said in a research note.

“It’s all starting to look like stagflation on steroids.

“There is no sign inflation is abating in any meaningful way, yet the survey adds more weight to our long-held argument that the economy is headed for recession. Moreover, that recession could come faster, and be much deeper, than many care to believe.”

If prices are still rising in a stagflationary environment will central banks worry about asset prices or price stability overall?

Maybe we should wait until the 25 Jan CPI report. alokdhir knows how financial markets work. Low interest rates and easy money.

If CPI is still high in the next CPI report and the stock market is falling due to reduced earnings and pressure to provide a return on investment in a world with moderate interest rates Adrian will be torn between his personal mandate of elevating asset prices and his official mandate of providing price stability.

Nothing is easy in this complicated world ...but if we see the bigger picture then eventually we shud end up with a deep recession thus labour market collapse leading to inflation pressures yielding as u cant chase prices if u dont have jobs or money in the pocket ....people just do forced austerity ....

All roads will lead to lower rates one way or the other eventually ...may become little ugly in the short term but imo now market participants are too smart and they easily look thru near term pain

In recent survey about average mortgage rates for Nov 2022 ....came same as Nov 2019 ...so actual pain of rates is still further ahead making people serious about spending curbs showing in retail spending patterns and profit downgrades from retail oriented companies like WHS

[bull....]

Nothing is easy in this complicated world ...but if we see the bigger picture then eventually we shud end up with a deep recession thus labour market collapse leading to inflation pressures yielding as u cant chase prices if u dont have jobs or money in the pocket ....people just do forced austerity ....

All roads will lead to lower rates one way or the other eventually ...may become little ugly in the short term but imo now market participants are too smart and they easily look thru near term pain

In recent survey about average mortgage rates for Nov 2022 ....came same as Nov 2019 ...so actual pain of rates is still further ahead making people serious about spending curbs showing in retail spending patterns and profit downgrades from retail oriented companies like WHS

think your forgetting you can have no growth but sticky high inflation ie stagflation therefore int rates would not fall and stocks would probably decline more

[winner69]

Alokdhir, how I see things re OCR

1- I think it’s a case of what Orr should do versus what it looks like he will do
2- Recall Orr was late to start hiking rates. He’s been behind the curve from the beginning and backward looking in decision making.
3- the outlook for the economy (esp residential building) is bad enough Orr should now stop hiking rates.
4- but with a vision fixed on the rear vision mirror Orr will deliver a few more sizeable hikes. Orr will do overdo the hikes. Hence my suggestion that 6% is possible.
5- These decisions will make a recession inevitable (could be avoided as in 3 above)
6- even then it’s going to take 2-3 years to fix the underlying inflation ‘problem’ - esp if Orr gets fixated on his 1%-3% range
7- the market will lead the fall in interest rates, maybe that’s even started which is interesting.

things could change if Govt intervenes ….they’ve got him by shorts and curlies by keeping him on for another term.

[alokdhir]

think your forgetting you can have no growth but sticky high inflation ie stagflation therefore int rates would not fall and stocks would probably decline more

Will see ...but word mentioned which is important to note is. " Eventually " ...also u cant have deep recession without labour market rolling over thus u can have inflation if demand collapses ...only if supply gets smashed too ...still longer term " Stagflation " is more difficult to have ... Inflation by definition is more demand then supply ...

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir, how I see things re OCR

1- I think it’s a case of what Orr should do versus what it looks like he will do
2- Recall Orr was late to start hiking rates. He’s been behind the curve from the beginning and backward looking in decision making.
3- the outlook for the economy (esp residential building) is bad enough Orr should now stop hiking rates.
4- but with a vision fixed on the rear vision mirror Orr will deliver a few more sizeable hikes. Orr will do overdo the hikes. Hence my suggestion that 6% is possible.
5- These decisions will make a recession inevitable (could be avoided as in 3 above)
6- even then it’s going to take 2-3 years to fix the underlying inflation ‘problem’ - esp if Orr gets fixated on his 1%-3% range
7- the market will lead the fall in interest rates, maybe that’s even started which is interesting.

things could change if Govt intervenes ….they’ve got him by shorts and curlies by keeping him on for another term.

I thought RNBZ was the first bank to stop QE and raise rates ...much earlier then FED ...

Also most of the financial stuff including sentiment is decided overseas

Our Govt is the biggest impediment in helping sort NZ economy as they try to give sugar highs to electorate for winning support ...Cost of living payments etc while RBNZ is trying to reduce money in the wallets to reduce demand

Market will and is already signalling that Central Bank's rates are not maintainable ...thus they dont care if OCR is 6 or 7 % ....Banks will not follow thru thus it wont matter at all

Overall I see better environment for well managed companies with good moat ...Economy can sputter but selective companies will do better

[winner69]

RBNZ might have been first …but should have done so earlier

[alokdhir]

RBNZ might have been first …but should have done so earlier

Agree. ...first but slower ....but still we will be ok ...as FED did the job for all other Central Banks too ...now BOJ is also helping

[bull....]

actually the RBNZ only stopped QE in december 2022 when the Funding for lending programme stopped , so they were not the first to stop maybe the last ?

[Jay]

actually the RBNZ only stopped QE in december 2022 when the Funding for lending programme stopped , so they were not the first to stop maybe the last ?

Yes, they could have/should have stopped it earlier, but no, they said we would keep it until Dec 22 so they did regardless of what was going on

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/new-zealand-pretty-much-in-recession-already-economist-shamubeel-eaqub.html

And markets are rejoicing ...will it last ? Not as per many ...but then many sold everything they had in March 2020 thinking they did well ...Did they ?

NZX is at almost 9 months high !!!

[winner69]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/new-zealand-pretty-much-in-recession-already-economist-shamubeel-eaqub.html

And markets are rejoicing ...will it last ? Not as per many ...but then many sold everything they had in March 2020 thinking they did well ...Did they ?

NZX is at almost 9 months high !!!

At this rate the NZX50 will be 13000 by Easter

Bring it on

The big bluechips like FPH,MFT, EBO etc etc will see to it

[alokdhir]

At this rate the NZX50 will be 13000 by Easter

Bring it on

The big bluechips like FPH,MFT, EBO etc etc will see to it

I dont know about 13000 as maybe too early for that but I fully agree with your blue chips concept as I always said before too ...Big caps especially the ones already corrected enough will lead the rally while small caps will suffer a bit more ....EBO / FPH / MFT etc are well positioned in this environment ....their p/e contraction was due to higher long term rates also which are getting capped now with the fear of recession worldwide .

PS : Remember my vote for KFL for yield as it has all these bluechips and it converts capital appreciation of these into yield very efficiently !

[Entrep]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/new-zealand-pretty-much-in-recession-already-economist-shamubeel-eaqub.html

And markets are rejoicing ...will it last ? Not as per many ...but then many sold everything they had in March 2020 thinking they did well ...Did they ?

NZX is at almost 9 months high !!!

Quite possibly the worst "economist" ever. Has repeatedly called for a housing crash for over a decade.

[alokdhir]

Quite possibly the worst "economist" ever. Has repeatedly called for a housing crash for over a decade.

All say sensational things to be in news ...they have no accountability ...its for entertainment purpose ...no news value ...I agree with your assessment mate

[alokdhir]

At this rate the NZX50 will be 13000 by Easter

Bring it on

The big bluechips like FPH,MFT, EBO etc etc will see to it

Also makes me wonder if we need a rally to suck in money on the side to get final capitulation ...what say u ?

[alokdhir]

"RBNZ warnings of pending recession look to be hitting home, with a muted December for retail card values and with card spending volumes likely to have contracted in Q4 of last year



•

Household spending is set to remain weak over 2023 as headwinds facing the sector intensify



•

The RBNZ is still expected to press forward with OCR hikes in the coming months, but weakness in household spending could see eventual OCR cuts bought forward









December card spending slumped with consumers clearly heeding RBNZ warnings over the need for household spending to slow. Durable and apparel spending was noticeably weaker. Higher consumer prices over the month likely imply a sharper fall to underlying card spending volumes, highlighting the risk of a December quarter contraction in GDP. Contraction also looms for the household sector (and overall GDP) in 2023 as the impacts of various headwinds hit home. Prolonged subpar rates of household spending could temper future OCR increases and could pave the way for eventual cuts, but not until the RBNZ is confident it is on top of inflation."

Latest ASB research ...as all quickly reassessing rates trajectory ahead based on latest Dec card spending data

[winner69]

Always have a laugh when I see or hear this ‘ consumers clearly heeding RBNZ warnings over the need for household spending to slow’

Anybody really believe a consumer says ‘Yes sir we will stop spending’

Betcha a large %age wouldnt even know who the RBNZ is ….all a few know is that a buck doesn’t buy as much as it used to.

[dobby41]

Always have a laugh when I see or hear this ‘ consumers clearly heeding RBNZ warnings over the need for household spending to slow’

Anybody really believe a consumer says ‘Yes sir we will stop spending’

Betcha a large %age wouldnt even know who the RBNZ is ….all a few know is that a buck doesn’t buy as much as it used to.

When they do heed the call we get a recession and moaning from other quarters.
No win possible here!

[bull....]

the slowdown has started

Consumers cut their spending using electronic cards in December, once those figures were adjusted to take into account it is usually a high-spending month, Stats NZ has reported.
ASB senior economist Mark Smith said the spending figures meant the economy might have shrunk in the December quarter and could already have entered a recession

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131...d-cut-spending (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131000848/nz-may-have-entered-recession-as-consumers-obey-reserve-bank-and-cut-spending)


House sales fall to lowest December level since 1995

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/130992355/house-sales-fall-to-lowest-december-level-since-1995


Nz inc built on selling houses to each other ............... can only be down hill when this happens

[nztx]

As recently seen posted somewhere else:



Orr & Robertson have failed to accurately predict or forecast anything so far - head shaking stuff once again from our leaders.

The list of things they predicted has been so off the mark - its beyond a joke and they are the experts!

So don't expect anything better from these two - its beyond them!



Anyone fancy how this pair will fare if things implode or a real financial crisis occurs ? :)

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/home-prices-tumble-almost-everywhere-auckland-and-wellington-property-prices-take-big-hits/G6QQZ4G5PBC5TK3LS2QHBHVO74/

House prices tumble almost everywhere, Auckland and Wellington property prices take big hits


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/interest-rate-rises-risk-a-financial-earthquake/N5UXLWWK7JDXTOQD4U4DJDSKQE/

Interest rate rises ‘risk a financial earthquake’


Premium content



Over-tightening by central banks could prompt another crisis, says debt expert.

[bull....]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/01/new-zealand-pretty-much-in-recession-already-economist-shamubeel-eaqub.html

And markets are rejoicing ...will it last ? Not as per many ...but then many sold everything they had in March 2020 thinking they did well ...Did they ?

NZX is at almost 9 months high !!!

it was probably bad luck if you sold in 2020 as no one new central banks would print like no tomorrow and that is the only reason you made money from 2020 to late 2021
but people who sold most stuff in sept/oct 2021 probably pretty happy now knowing that no money printing will cause a big jump in stock prices now

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/households-finances-moving-from-squeezed-to-crushed-economist-warns/YNKVCR2TV5HRBMNINQXNUBYHZY/

Households’ finances moving from squeezed to crushed, economist warns



Households’ finances are being squeezed on several fronts with more pain to come, a leading bank says.

[alokdhir]

it was probably bad luck if you sold in 2020 as no one new central banks would print like no tomorrow and that is the only reason you made money from 2020 to late 2021
but people who sold most stuff in sept/oct 2021 probably pretty happy now knowing that no money printing will cause a big jump in stock prices now

As not everyone is as smart like u ...its better not to interfere with your long term goals and investments ...it works out better that way

[bull....]

all doom and gloom in papers today


Sharp fall in retail spending points to looming slowdown for the economy (https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/119230/stats-nz-says-seasonally-adjusted-spending-fall-december-was-first-nine)

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/119230/stats-nz-says-seasonally-adjusted-spending-fall-december-was-first-nine

[dobby41]

As recently seen posted somewhere else:






Anyone fancy how this pair will fare if things implode or a real financial crisis occurs ? :)
Has anyone accurately predicted what is going to happen - anywhere?


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/home-prices-tumble-almost-everywhere-auckland-and-wellington-property-prices-take-big-hits/G6QQZ4G5PBC5TK3LS2QHBHVO74/

House prices tumble almost everywhere, Auckland and Wellington property prices take big hits


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/interest-rate-rises-risk-a-financial-earthquake/N5UXLWWK7JDXTOQD4U4DJDSKQE/

Interest rate rises ‘risk a financial earthquake’


Premium content

There is a risk of a 'financial earthquake' but house prices are unsustainable and need to come down to more realistic levels.
People predict house price dives and everyone ignores it until it happens (maybe not as big a dive as many predictions).

It wasn't that long ago that people were saying that interest rates wouldn't go up because the Govts couldn't afford it so would engineer them to stay down.

I wish house prices had dropped 20% or so in a year and gotten the pain over with (including a share precipitous drop rather than the dribble down).
Always better to rip a plaster off that keep tugging at it.

[dobby41]

As recently seen posted somewhere else:






Anyone fancy how this pair will fare if things implode or a real financial crisis occurs ? :)


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/households-finances-moving-from-squeezed-to-crushed-economist-warns/YNKVCR2TV5HRBMNINQXNUBYHZY/

Households’ finances moving from squeezed to crushed, economist warns

When was the last time 'economists' were right? About anything?

[alokdhir]

Has anyone accurately predicted what is going to happen - anywhere?



There is a risk of a 'financial earthquake' but house prices are unsustainable and need to come down to more realistic levels.
People predict house price dives and everyone ignores it until it happens (maybe not as big a dive as many predictions).

It wasn't that long ago that people were saying that interest rates wouldn't go up because the Govts couldn't afford it so would engineer them to stay down.

I wish house prices had dropped 20% or so in a year and gotten the pain over with (including a share precipitous drop rather than the dribble down).
Always better to rip a plaster off that keep tugging at it.

Didnt BoE engineer something to help save pension funds from rampant drop in Bond prices conversely rise in Bond yields ? When it will cause systemic risks to overall stability then they will need to chose the lesser evil ...slowly it can be managed ...ripping of bandaid may make the wound bleed again uncontrollably

[nztx]

When was the last time 'economists' were right? About anything?

When was the last time Labour were right? About anything?

What will Robbo & OrrLess produce this time. aside from a huge worsening financial mess ? ;)



https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...MNINQXNUBYHZY/

Households’ finances moving from squeezed to crushed, economist warns


WESTPAC warning seems more credible than Govt or RB sources on what is happening :)

[BlackPeter]

When was the last time 'economists' were right? About anything?

I am sure economists are (statistically) neither more often nor less often right about the future than anybody else.

This is the thing: Only NOBODY is able to predict the future ... but nobody so far found NOBODY.

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/bank-of-japan-defies-market-pressure-and-keeps-monetary-policy-ultra-loose/ONJVSKBWZZDFPJM646BPEHNOHU/


Bank of Japan defies market pressure and keeps monetary policy ultra loose

(Guess what ? ... It's Premium .. again )


Meanwhile Robbo's giving hand to a select anointed few is bound to be the only thing loose in Kiwiland
during Ardern's & Robbo's reign of destruction leading up to elections, with OrrLess frantically trying
to hover it back in record time, resulting in further poverty ;)

[bull....]

market having a red day , maybe taking profits and getting ready for seasonally weak feb

[alokdhir]

US 10Year keeps making newer and newer recent lows ...trend is down

Long term rates trending down eventually is good for growth stocks ....

Hoop said stocks directly related to rates nothing else ...when rates go up stocks go down and vice versa ....So outlook for stocks improving period

[Joshuatree]

Yep good for stocks like FPH

[bull....]

US 10Year keeps making newer and newer recent lows ...trend is down

Long term rates trending down eventually is good for growth stocks ....

Hoop said stocks directly related to rates nothing else ...when rates go up stocks go down and vice versa ....So outlook for stocks improving period

the 10yr playing chicken with the fed , implying fed will ease later this yr. if this does not occur and fed sticks to higher for longer as they say they will , all it is doing is setting up a big disconnect between market and fed and possibilty of big tank in stocks to match reality then

[alokdhir]

the 10yr playing chicken with the fed , implying fed will ease later this yr. if this does not occur and fed sticks to higher for longer as they say they will , all it is doing is setting up a big disconnect between market and fed and possibilty of big tank in stocks to match reality then

FED always says what it will not do eventually ...10Y is calling that ...Bond market knows better than what FED has to say at present .

U cant have your cake and eat it too ...if u can see slowdown coming then all know rates working ...then what next happens is a logical step ...thats what is moving Bond markets ...thats what spooked US markets too ...now they also thinking rates working a bit too much maybe that FED will overkill etc ...eventually we will get there ie lower rates needed consensus ...not yet ...we need go thru the process , sticky inflation will need deeper recession ...then its just a question of time ...2023 is going to be very different then 2022 ...last year was simple as all year was just rates going up thus bad for stocks ...this year is when to pause and when to pivot story which will be data dependent but fast moving or changing scenarios but with " eventual " positive bias for stocks especially NZX as with dollar rolling over it will be overseas investment theme too ...when was best time to move your USD to NZD ...U know better

[bull....]

FED always says what it will not do eventually ...10Y is calling that ...Bond market knows better than what FED has to say at present .

U cant have your cake and eat it too ...if u can see slowdown coming then all know rates working ...then what next happens is a logical step ...thats what is moving Bond markets ...thats what spooked US markets too ...now they also thinking rates working a bit too much maybe that FED will overkill etc ...eventually we will get there ie lower rates needed consensus ...not yet ...we need go thru the process , sticky inflation will need deeper recession ...then its just a question of time ...2023 is going to be very different then 2022 ...last year was simple as all year was just rates going up thus bad for stocks ...this year is when to pause and when to pivot story which will be data dependent but fast moving or changing scenarios but with " eventual " positive bias for stocks especially NZX as with dollar rolling over it will be overseas investment theme too ...when was best time to move your USD to NZD ...U know better

yep 2023 could well be very different to 2022 only in regards to having stagflation this yr whereas last yr was inflation.

[bull....]

biggest annual increase in food prices in 32 years

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/food-prices-skyrocket-by-largest-annual-increase-in-32-years/25HSF5RF4BFGDM2D6XLGB7IYFQ/

[winner69]

biggest annual increase in food prices in 32 years

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/food-prices-skyrocket-by-largest-annual-increase-in-32-years/25HSF5RF4BFGDM2D6XLGB7IYFQ/


11.4 percent.

[alokdhir]

11.4 percent.

Makes stocks cheaper compared to food ...lol

[sb9]

11.4 percent.

Don't think CPI number next week will be that pretty either. Orr must be sharpening his tools even harder for next hike in Feb and more thereafter.

[alokdhir]

BNZ thinks next CPI print at 7.1 % while Massey Uni algorithm thinks its 7.8% ...Come 25th Jan we will know ? Year of Rabbit will reveal good stuff only :t_up:

[CatO'Tonic]

Quick question: How do the people here think Jacinda's resignation will affect markets?

[Sideshow Bob]

Quick question: How do the people here think Jacinda's resignation will affect markets?

Must say it is great at this time of year when all the polly's take a month (or so) holiday.

[850man]

Quick question: How do the people here think Jacinda's resignation will affect markets?

Unfortunately they still have 9 months of absolute majority to ram through their ideological, inflation stoking policies and pre-election cash handouts.

[Entrep]

I thought we might have gotten a boost. Clearly not

[causecelebre]

Quick question: How do the people here think Jacinda's resignation will affect markets?

Well....I guess CGT is back on the table lol

[Aaron]

Quick question: How do the people here think Jacinda's resignation will affect markets?

Not at all, if no new policies were announced.

Alokdhir I wonder what US 10yr treasury rates are saying about current NZ food prices??? Maybe they have already looked through the current transitory inflation. Or maybe US and NZ are not that closely linked. Who knows? just drop interest rates and print some more money to get the party started. That is what most intelligent investors see in the future. I wonder if the next 30 years will be the same as the last 30?

[bull....]

Quick question: How do the people here think Jacinda's resignation will affect markets?

you can tell by the re-action markets dont really care she's leaving

[nztx]

you can tell by the re-action markets dont really care she's leaving



The star dust & glitter had already long fallen off, it appears
as most continued dealing with what they were confronted with :)

[nztx]

Unfortunately they still have 9 months of absolute majority to ram through their ideological, inflation stoking policies and pre-election cash handouts.

and then potentially it all lands in someone elses lap to clean up the shambles and mess ;)

[Rawz]

Market sees Jacinda's resignation as terrible news.

If the PM see's no hope of reelection due to how the economy will perform in 2023 then it must be dire indeed

[Aaron]

Market sees Jacinda's resignation as terrible news.

If the PM see's no hope of reelection due to how the economy will perform in 2023 then it must be dire indeed

Can't remember the date John Key resigned as PM but it would be interesting to go back on this site and compare posters statements and reactions to a similar event (and markets if you are catotonic).

I have always said Jacinda is very much like John Key on the main issues of national super, capital gains tax, boosting the housing market through immigration.

She got in by not being any of the previous labour leaders, no changes in policy just a dumb electorate who like a smiley face.

She won the second time by making a promise to the boomers which was one more than national, which was saving them from covid and leaving the bill and mess for the next generation to pick up, even though covid hardly affected young people.

Didn't John retire because he did not want to become unpopular by hanging around too long.

[nztx]

Market sees Jacinda's resignation as terrible news.

If the PM see's no hope of reelection due to how the economy will perform in 2023 then it must be dire indeed


A show of no Confidence in fat boy slim - clueless Robbo along with a bunch of RB parasites sailing along gripping onto his coat tails ? ;)

[Rawz]

Can't remember the date John Key resigned as PM but it would be interesting to go back on this site and compare posters statements and reactions.

I have always said Jacinda is very much like John Key on the main issues of national super, capital gains tax, boosting the housing market. Didn't John retire because he did not want to become unpopular by hanging around too long.

John Key left with the economy humming and they were polling 44% odd.
Jacinda leaving with polls decreasing (low 30's now?) and the economy is looking very wobbly.

One went out on top.
One is jumping ship moments before hitting the ice burg

[bull....]

Market sees Jacinda's resignation as terrible news.



hardly the markets have hardly moved following her exit.
In fact the only thing ardern achieved was to get on with maori which she said so in her speech therefore explaining the no re-action

[alokdhir]

NZ10Y follows the worlds ...ie down 16bips ....I thought RBNZ wants it to go higher ...Shud be good for stocks

Jim Cramer at CBNC says trucking industry has bottomed thats why JD Hunt went up 5% while market tanked in US ...Good for our dear MFT ...now I got it why its got legs recently ...BTW it trades at 20+ P/E ...that shud make out MFT worth $ 90 if not more !!!

[winner69]

"I like to say that the stock market always does what surprises people the most. What would surprise people the most? The market getting back near all-time highs."—Jared Dillian, The 10th Man

[alokdhir]

"I like to say that the stock market always does what surprises people the most. What would surprise people the most? The market getting back near all-time highs."—Jared Dillian, The 10th Man

Or make new lows ...that shud also surprise a lot ...maybe including me ...will be more surprised with making new high surely ...Many expect making new low but not even me expect making new highs ...lol

[Rawz]

Most i reckon think a big crash is coming but most still fully invested because who knows... always that possibility it wont happen. and if it does, most acknowledge they wont get the timing right and miss out on most of the gains because when it rebounds they will think its a dead cat bounce or something like that.. So best just to ride through and reinvest dividends and surplus earnings from your wage and enjoy life

[nztx]

Most i reckon think a big crash is coming but most still fully invested because who knows... always that possibility it wont happen. and if it does, most acknowledge they wont get the timing right and miss out on most of the gains because when it rebounds they will think its a dead cat bounce or something like that.. So best just to ride through and reinvest dividends and surplus earnings from your wage and enjoy life


too late to get out now ? :)