Black Monday

[bull....]

End of the bear rally, or just another blip in new upward trend?

need to remember at the moment powell doesnt want markets going up to much , needs you to feel poor

[bull....]

:scared: absolutely massive jump in NZ 10 yr rates this morning up 7%

[Aaron]

:scared: absolutely massive jump in NZ 10 yr rates this morning up 7%

Just wondering what NZ 10 yr rate you are quoting. Is it the nz govt bond on the secondary market? and where do you find that information? I wonder how often the nz treasury issues new bonds, is it like a regular daily thing or much less often.

At interest.co.nz the 10 yr nz govt bond yield on the secondary market is under 5% but this is only to the 02/11/2022.

[Muse]

Just wondering what NZ 10 yr rate you are quoting. Is it the nz govt bond on the secondary market? and where do you find that information? I wonder how often the nz treasury issues new bonds, is it like a regular daily thing or much less often.

At interest.co.nz the 10 yr nz govt bond yield on the secondary market is under 5% but this is only to the 02/11/2022.

You can find intraday NZ 10 year goverment bond yields here
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmknz-10y?countrycode=bx

Interest.co.nz charts show the final close from the RBNZ each day. These are yields from the secondary market. Treasury do auctions quite often but not daily. Interest.co.nz always cover them and how well they were bid

[stoploss]

Just wondering what NZ 10 yr rate you are quoting. Is it the nz govt bond on the secondary market? and where do you find that information? I wonder how often the nz treasury issues new bonds, is it like a regular daily thing or much less often.

At interest.co.nz the 10 yr nz govt bond yield on the secondary market is under 5% but this is only to the 02/11/2022.

AAron, some info here.

https://debtmanagement.treasury.govt.nz/government-securities/nominal-bonds

[Aaron]

AAron, some info here.

https://debtmanagement.treasury.govt.nz/government-securities/nominal-bonds

Thanks for the replies. Looking briefly at the treasury website the rates being quoted are all well less than 7% and if I read it correctly the only parties that can buy bonds straight from the treasury are listed below.

The current list of approved Registered Tender Counterparties are:

ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited
Bank of New Zealand
Citigroup Global Markets Limited
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Deutsche Bank AG, Sydney
J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited
UBS AG, Australia
Westpac Banking Corporation, New Zealand.

Does that mean if you want to buy NZ govt bonds you buy it from one of the banks and I guess they take a small fee? Even the RBNZ went through the trading bank when buying govt bonds. But I guess that was to keep up a facade around the govt printing money.

After writing this I see there are Kiwibonds for the retail investor. Longest maturity is 4yrs at 3.5%. Maybe should have a good look before typing.

At 7% a NZ govt bond might be attractive if inflation looked to be cooling down. Does anyone invest in govt bonds?

[stoploss]

Thanks for the replies. Looking briefly at the treasury website the rates being quoted are all well less than 7% and if I read it correctly the only parties that can buy bonds straight from the treasury are listed below.

The current list of approved Registered Tender Counterparties are:

ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited
Bank of New Zealand
Citigroup Global Markets Limited
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Deutsche Bank AG, Sydney
J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited
UBS AG, Australia
Westpac Banking Corporation, New Zealand.

Does that mean if you want to buy NZ govt bonds you buy it from one of the banks and I guess they take a small fee? Even the RBNZ went through the trading bank when buying govt bonds. But I guess that was to keep up a facade around the govt printing money.

After writing this I see there are Kiwibonds for the retail investor. Longest maturity is 4yrs at 3.5%. Maybe should have a good look before typing.

At 7% a NZ govt bond might be attractive if inflation looked to be cooling down. Does anyone invest in govt bonds?
Not sure what platform you use but on direct broking they have a NZDX tab, you can purchase through sharebrokers as well.

[bull....]

another down night on wall st.
tonight be a biggy with us unemployment data.
a big rise in jobs may see us heading for a test of the biggy 3600 support ?

[Panda-NZ-]

another down night on wall st.
tonight be a biggy with us unemployment data.
a big rise in jobs may see us heading for a test of the biggy 3600 support ?

How much is retirements driving it though.

With a particualry unhealthy American population all these jobs will simply be ones vacated by someone else who is retiring.

[bull....]

How much is retirements driving it though.

With a particualry unhealthy American population all these jobs will simply be ones vacated by someone else who is retiring.

complex problem for sure
market doesnt care why the numbers go up. markets want to see people outright losing there jobs

[cyclist]

Looking briefly at the treasury website the rates being quoted are all well less than 7% ...

FYI Aaron, I think Bull's 7% reference was to a % change. e.g. 4.00% increasing to 4.28% (as a made up example).

[Aaron]

FYI Aaron, I think Bull's 7% reference was to a % change. e.g. 4.00% increasing to 4.28% (as a made up example).

Now I understand, thanks. I was concerned I was missing out on a 7% govt bond and if govt bonds were 7% corporate bonds would be even better but looking at the nzx debt market my fomo is misplaced.

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX

Also worked out I can buy these debt securities easily through ASB Securities. Not sure where you look to be informed of new debt issues but I am probably not a big enough investor to worry.

Also nice to know that Bull is not full of sh*t.

[bull....]

Now I understand, thanks. I was concerned I was missing out on a 7% govt bond and if govt bonds were 7% corporate bonds would be even better but looking at the nzx debt market my fomo is misplaced.

https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZDX

Also worked out I can buy these debt securities easily through ASB Securities. Not sure where you look to be informed of new debt issues but I am probably not a big enough investor to worry.

Also nice to know that Bull is not full of sh*t.

if you want a free site to access a more up to date nz 10yr bond have a look on tradingview - you dont have to sign up i just had a look and it shows 4.6% as of now .. on there site

others a like paid for sites like bloomberg platform and other trading platforms

[Bobdn]

Massive rally overnight. Most non ESG kiwi saver funds would have exposure to oil, coal, copper and silver through the allocation to the ASX, which is usually pretty meaty. The ASX is around 10 per cent of my kiwisaver. Home bias includes, fortunately, both NZ and Australia because of the beneficial tax arrangements.

Oh what a night! Copper up 8 per cent. Oil up a respectable 5 per cent. I didn't want to go to bed, it was glorious watching the action.

Rio and BHP up 10 per cent. These are not small companies. Who knows what will happen next week - could just as easily drop by the same amount. The main thing for me is that super high dividends are continuing to be paid and reinvested which keeps me happy.

Isn't it great seeing low profit/no profit tech companies sinking? Couldn't take my eyes off Twilio.

The Revenge of the Old Economy, as the Goldman guy refers to it.

Without the energy and materials sector, there are no yoga retreats in Bali or iphones.

[bull....]

Massive rally overnight. Most non ESG kiwi saver funds would have exposure to oil, coal, copper and silver through the allocation to the ASX, which is usually pretty meaty. The ASX is around 10 per cent of my kiwisaver. Home bias includes, fortunately, both NZ and Australia because of the beneficial tax arrangements.

Oh what a night! Copper up 8 per cent. Oil up a respectable 5 per cent. I didn't want to go to bed, it was glorious watching the action.

Rio and BHP up 10 per cent. These are not small companies. Who knows what will happen next week - could just as easily drop by the same amount. The main thing for me is that super high dividends are continuing to be paid and reinvested which keeps me happy.

Isn't it great seeing low profit/no profit tech companies sinking? Couldn't take my eyes off Twilio.

The Revenge of the Old Economy, as the Goldman guy refers to it.

Without the energy and materials sector, there are no yoga retreats in Bali or iphones.

big commodities rally for sure. dont know how long it last as it was based mainly on chinese rumours around re-opening which have been squashed by authorities over the weekend
Big week wall st this week mid - terms and cpi data should make for a volatile week again

[causecelebre]

big commodities rally for sure. dont know how long it last as it was based mainly on chinese rumours around re-opening which have been squashed by authorities over the weekend
Big week wall st this week mid - terms and cpi data should make for a volatile week again

Mid-terms start tomorrow in the US. History has shown the market rallies following mid-terms (6 months post), not because of the result per se but because the certainty it brings. Be interesting to see if this plays out this year

[Bobdn]

Yes so much going on. It's a lot of fun watching all this stuff. Thank god for the internet.

[winner69]

RBNZ keep a close eye on the.2 year number …but Orr doesn’t have much incentive to do much about it for a few years now.

survey of expectations they do -

Inflation expectations

One year ahead: 5.08% (Prev: 4.86%)

Two years ahead: 3.62% (Prev: 3.07%)

Five years ahead: 2.44% (Prev: 2.33%)

Ten years ahead: 2.18% (Prev: 2.13%)

A good Governer would becworried ….OCR heading over 5% …maybe to 6%

[Rawz]

RBNZ keep a close eye on the.2 year number …but Orr doesn’t have much incentive to do much about it for a few years now.

survey of expectations they do -

Inflation expectations

One year ahead: 5.08% (Prev: 4.86%)

Two years ahead: 3.62% (Prev: 3.07%)

Five years ahead: 2.44% (Prev: 2.33%)

Ten years ahead: 2.18% (Prev: 2.13%)

A good Governer would becworried ….OCR heading over 5% …maybe to 6%

Who cares about the OCR when the swaps front run it so much?

[Muse]

Who cares about the OCR when the swaps front run it so much?

Swap rates (or indeed any other bond type instrument) are all anchored to expectations of where the OCR might go. Plus or minus, in the short and slightly medium term, gyrations in the price of offshore funding

[Rawz]

Swap rates (or indeed any other bond type instrument) are all anchored to expectations of where the OCR might go. Plus or minus, in the short and slightly medium term, gyrations in the price of offshore funding

Yes exactly. And while OCR creeps up to say 5% OCR over a long time the swaps go bang! there in a week

[Muse]

Yes exactly. And while OCR creeps up to say 5% OCR over a long time the swaps go bang! there in a week

ah yes sorry yes I getcha point

terrifying things, these bond markets. more powerful than political parties

[Bobdn]

Crypto is getting dumped. Copper, gold, silver, platinum are ripping.

Revenge of the old economy.

[bull....]

NZ heading the way of turkey ? 84 % inflation

'60% of the way to wage-price spiral and hyperinflation Armageddon,' economist says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130401912/60-of-the-way-to-wageprice-spiral-and-hyperinflation-armageddon-economist-says


bit of a crypto panic happening , probably flow onto equities i reckon

[causecelebre]

Crypto is getting dumped. Copper, gold, silver, platinum are ripping.

Revenge of the old economy.

Crypto is getting dumped due to liquidity issues of FTX. Binance have an agreement to buy FTX

[bull....]

crypto carnage continues weighing on stock indices today.
tomorrow biggie.
cpi data and maybe us midterm results

[BlackPeter]

crypto carnage continues weighing on stock indices today.
tomorrow biggie.
cpi data and maybe us midterm results

Be careful. Our friend cryptocrude might attack you next :) ;

[bull....]

Be careful. Our friend cryptocrude might attack you next :) ;

haha lets hope crude was a trader not a bag holder

[bull....]

inflation data not to far away , implied volatility on the release is high esp if its hot

[bull....]

wow massive reaction to that print , nasdaq jumped nearly 3% in like 2 mins lol

[Bobdn]

Yes!! Huge. As big as you'll ever see.

This might be one of them "10;best market days" that one shouldn't miss...

[kiora]

Yesterday the shakeout, today the ...... ?
We will see.

[bull....]

nasdaq up nearly 6% now .... **** all assets of every type massive moves all over the place and all this on a slight dip lol.
nzx must go to the moon today led by our mighty tech sector

[Rawz]

Bull you are guttered aye lol

[Panda-NZ-]

More people are losing their jobs too.. wall st will be happy.

[bull....]

Bull you are guttered aye lol

gutted ya , i put a tiny short on just before the cpi announcement and i got destroyed lol , anyway the coming massive uptick today in NZ tech stocks lol should cover it.

nz 10 yr down biggly already this morning should help yield plays

[Panda-NZ-]

NZD shoots up to $0.60

[alokdhir]

Finally we saw something concrete in data which matters ...just a beginning of better times or just one off ...only time will tell but like heard many times on CNBC today that investors need stay in the market rather then trying to time the market

Dr Copper is showing early signs of positivity ahead ....but again before I upset permabears that nothing is confirmed till we get another few more data points showing inflation will continue to cool ...but today's data is surely very positive and its REAL

[Aaron]

Finally we saw something concrete in data which matters ...just a beginning of better times or just one off ...only time will tell but like heard many times on CNBC today that investors need stay in the market rather then trying to time the market

Dr Copper is showing early signs of positivity ahead ....but again before I upset permabears that nothing is confirmed till we get another few more data points showing inflation will continue to cool ...but today's data is surely very positive and its REAL

As a permabear is the data you are referring to that the US inflation was below forecast but still at elevated levels.

Isn't the reasoning behind a euphoric rise in financial markets that as the economy is going to hell in a handbasket CPI will fall and therefore interest rate cuts and easy money are just around the corner?

DR Copper might be a signal of good times ahead or an industry benefiting from the switch to electric everything. Glass half empty as always.

[Panda-NZ-]

Maybe all the repub loving business owners incl loose cannon Elon will throw a tantrum and sack some employees.

Improving inflation and the stock market .

[clip]

oof, very glad I closed my 3x SP500 short yesterday, it's not having a good time today.. down 15%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/spxs

[bull....]

Finally we saw something concrete in data which matters ...just a beginning of better times or just one off ...only time will tell but like heard many times on CNBC today that investors need stay in the market rather then trying to time the market

Dr Copper is showing early signs of positivity ahead ....but again before I upset permabears that nothing is confirmed till we get another few more data points showing inflation will continue to cool ...but today's data is surely very positive and its REAL

biggest daily rallies always bear rallies .... moves today suggest short covering and maybe re - positioning ? massive moves lol some stuff
hit the right one and your rich in a day

[SailorRob]

biggest daily rallies always bear rallies .... moves today suggest short covering and maybe re - positioning ? massive moves lol some stuff
hit the right one and your rich in a day


Does that work the other way too? Massive moves lol hit the wrong one and you're poor in a day?

[ronaldson]

NZX has opened strong this morning. Good to see some signs of exuberance on a bad weather day. Maybe the US elections outcome, the retreat from Kherson, and some quite reasonable reporting so far for the 30 Sept half/full year, is helping?

[Muse]

Nice to see a strong rally today - NZX50 up ~2% - off a slightly milder US CPI reading. Should enjoy that.

But NZ has its own issues and drivers. Food price inflation a big one and this mornings StatsNZ was a bit of a shock - up 10.1%
https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-food-price-increase-reaches-14-year-high-of-10-1-percent/

Food prices are notoriously seasonal so when adjusting for these it was even more disappointing to see October's seasonally adjusted food prices went up 1.8% just from September! Off the charts high.

[Panda-NZ-]

Should do a food tax cut instead of a petrol tax cut.

Strange for an agricultural nation to charge gst on food - it's something we should encourage, rather than have even more petrol use.

[ynot]

Should do a food tax cut instead of a petrol tax cut.

Strange for an agricultural nation to charge gst on food - it's something we should encourage rather than even more petrol use.


Agree. We should never have included food in gst take. Govt is dependent on the strangulation it exerts on everyone so I guess we are stuck with it.

[Filthy]

Agree. We should never have included food in gst take. Govt is dependent on the strangulation it exerts on everyone so I guess we are stuck with it.

at least remove it from fruit & vege eh! - a sprig of broccoli 2/3 times the cost a pack of tim tams makes no sense! benefit would flow-over into gov healthcare; might even pay for itself

[ynot]

at least remove it from fruit & vege eh! - a sprig of broccoli 2/3 times the cost a pack of tim tams makes no sense! benefit would flow-over into gov healthcare; might even pay for itself

Australia has always been exempt gst on food. Just makes sense.

[mondograss]

So do you apply GST on rotisserie chickens then? If so what to do about KFC? Is a premade salad with dressing considered fruit\veg? What about tinned peaches? It gets complicated really quickly which is why we went the universal route.

[Panda-NZ-]

So do you apply GST on rotisserie chickens then? If so what to do about KFC? Is a premade salad with dressing considered fruit\veg? What about tinned peaches? It gets complicated really quickly which is why we went the universal route.

What about Aus/UK/most of europe.

If we can't figure it out then it doesn't bode well for our education system.

[iceman]

What about Aus/UK/most of europe.

If we can't figure it out then it doesn't bode well for our education system.

Awfully complicated, open to abuse and very expensive to administer. Our's on the other hand is simply and easy with a reasonable tax rate. Best to leave it alone.

[Panda-NZ-]

Awfully complicated, open to abuse and very expensive to administer. Our's on the other hand is simply and easy with a reasonable tax rate. Best to leave it alone.

But has social welfare implications that cannot be ignored.

And economic given our dependency on agriculture.

[bull....]

Does that work the other way too? Massive moves lol hit the wrong one and you're poor in a day?

of course only play with what you can afford to lose, but when the momentum is running one way if you want to get rich you need to pound the f.ck out of it

[Hoop]

Living in a room having a very large Elephant as a flatmate.

I must admit this last year or so has been very trying. My flatmate has been very depressed trunk down floppy ears down, but the hardest thing to live with is the sudden mood shifts to that of joyousness wonder then the rage of return to depression. We have to keep out of the way when the rage starts and that is hard when living in a small space.
Last night something happened.. our depressed flatmate started to move to the beat (oh no here we go again) Is it going to be another rapper number?...No, it was worse than that, something really unusual happened..Our flatemate started to sing a 50 year old song recorded by by an even older dude called Johnny Nash..Was this the turning point out of the Elephant's depression???
I can see clearly (https://www.definitions.net/definition/clearly) now the rain is gone
I can see all obstacles (https://www.definitions.net/definition/obstacles) in my way
Gone are the dark clouds (https://www.definitions.net/definition/clouds) that had me blind
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day

Oh, yes I can make it now the pain is gone
All of the bad feelings (https://www.definitions.net/definition/feelings) have disappeared
Here is that rainbow (https://www.definitions.net/definition/rainbow) I've been praying (https://www.definitions.net/definition/praying) for
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day

Look all around, there's nothing (https://www.definitions.net/definition/nothing) but blue skies
Look straight (https://www.definitions.net/definition/straight) ahead, there's nothing (https://www.definitions.net/definition/nothing) but blue skies

I can see clearly now the rain is gone
I can see all obstacles in my way
Here is that rainbow I've been praying for
It's gonna be a bright (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny day
It's gonna be a bright (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny day
Bright (bright) bright (bright)
Bright sunshiny day
It's going (https://www.definitions.net/definition/going) to be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day

Now singing a 50 year old song, that is really scary. I hope our flatemate has finally become mentally well,,,but
we have our doubts..
Has the pain really gone?
No more obstacles?
What rainbow?
We hope there isn't going to be another disappointment followed by rage.

Lets see what the charts say. Hmmm there hasn't been a recession yet, we may be OK but just to be sure we
should find a safe corner in the room.

S&P500 still in a downtrend

14303

Copper breakout is marginal not yet convincing


14304
Conclusion:
If you want to relive the past go to a concert and listen to an old dude sing old songs. Billy Joel Concert is coming, :t_up:.

If you want to look forward towards the future don't listen to elephants singing Johnny Nash's songs.

[Bjauck]

I was looking all over for the elephant I knew was in the room. All I found was a flat mate!

[Hoop]

I was looking all over for the elephant I knew was in the room. All I found was a flat mate!

Maybe the elephant was wearing camouflage clothing and still sitting on your mate

[alokdhir]

Living in a room having a very large Elephant as a flatmate.

I must admit this last year or so has been very trying. My flatmate has been very depressed trunk down floppy ears down, but the hardest thing to live with is the sudden mood shifts to that of joyousness wonder then the rage of return to depression. We have to keep out of the way when the rage starts and that is hard when living in a small space.
Last night something happened.. our depressed flatmate started to move to the beat (oh no here we go again) Is it going to be another rapper number?...No, it was worse than that, something really unusual happened..Our flatemate started to sing a 50 year old song recorded by by an even older dude called Johnny Nash..Was this the turning point out of the Elephant's depression???
I can see clearly (https://www.definitions.net/definition/clearly) now the rain is gone
I can see all obstacles (https://www.definitions.net/definition/obstacles) in my way
Gone are the dark clouds (https://www.definitions.net/definition/clouds) that had me blind
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day

Oh, yes I can make it now the pain is gone
All of the bad feelings (https://www.definitions.net/definition/feelings) have disappeared
Here is that rainbow (https://www.definitions.net/definition/rainbow) I've been praying (https://www.definitions.net/definition/praying) for
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day

Look all around, there's nothing (https://www.definitions.net/definition/nothing) but blue skies
Look straight (https://www.definitions.net/definition/straight) ahead, there's nothing (https://www.definitions.net/definition/nothing) but blue skies

I can see clearly now the rain is gone
I can see all obstacles in my way
Here is that rainbow I've been praying for
It's gonna be a bright (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny day
It's gonna be a bright (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny day
Bright (bright) bright (bright)
Bright sunshiny day
It's going (https://www.definitions.net/definition/going) to be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day
It's gonna (https://www.definitions.net/definition/gonna) be a bright (https://www.definitions.net/definition/bright) (bright)
Bright (bright) sunshiny (https://www.definitions.net/definition/sunshiny) day

Now singing a 50 year old song, that is really scary. I hope our flatemate has finally become mentally well,,,but
we have our doubts..
Has the pain really gone?
No more obstacles?
What rainbow?
We hope there isn't going to be another disappointment followed by rage.

Lets see what the charts say. Hmmm there hasn't been a recession yet, we may be OK but just to be sure we
should find a safe corner in the room.

S&P500 still in a downtrend

14303

Copper breakout is marginal not yet convincing


14304
Conclusion:
If you want to relive the past go to a concert and listen to an old dude sing old songs. Billy Joel Concert is coming, :t_up:.

If you want to look forward towards the future don't listen to elephants singing Johnny Nash's songs.

Maybe today's price action of your favourite Dr Copper may help u change your mind ...today its truly broken out ...now lets hope it sustains ...very likely but will keep mind open to Real data ....

I remember u said Dr Copper's confirmation of bottom will be leading indicator for the stocks too ...I am keeping my fingers crossed and wait for your expert opinion

[winner69]

Maybe today's price action of your favourite Dr Copper may help u change your mind ...today its truly broken out ...now lets hope it sustains ...very likely but will keep mind open to Real data ....

I remember u said Dr Copper's confirmation of bottom will be leading indicator for the stocks too ...I am keeping my fingers crossed and wait for your expert opinion

Ive realised I’ve got the + and - signs mixed up in my model

We not heading to 2800 sp500 …it’s 5600 mid next year

But whatever will be will be …so no worries

[Rawz]

Is Santa coming after all?
Yay

[alokdhir]

Ive realised I’ve got the + and - signs mixed up in my model

We not heading to 2800 sp500 …it’s 5600 mid next year

But whatever will be will be …so no worries

As long as u stay invested ...it wont matter either way ...but when we try to be smarter then the Mr Markets then we get into trouble ....as I said before and many times that this is not the first time markets doing this and wont be the last time too ... it has always come back with even more fervour ....how that happens ...by reducing the value of money or inflating away cash or whatever ...good businesses will find a way to get over hurdles finally and its corporate profits which eventually decides SPs ...humans will progress so will markets ...:t_up:

[Getty]

Is Santa coming after all?
Yay

Will he have his sack, or has he got the sack?

[Rawz]

Apparently we are looking at a decade of inflation. During globalization companies exported jobs overseas chasing cheap labor.

Now CEOs are aware of the vulnerability of global supply chains and looking to bring lots of these jobs back home. This will bring pressure on prices with higher labor costs as well as the need to train domestic work forces in a lot of jobs that were done abroad.

So it’s a new secular inflation trend

Apparently not good to buy the index and active fund managers should finally outperform

[Bjauck]

Apparently we are looking at a decade of inflation. During globalization companies exported jobs overseas chasing cheap labor.

Now CEOs are aware of the vulnerability of global supply chains and looking to bring lots of these jobs back home. This will bring pressure on prices with higher labor costs as well as the need to train domestic work forces in a lot of jobs that were done abroad.

So it’s a new secular inflation trend
Apparently not good to buy the index and active fund managers should finally outperform Certainly good managers will, but there is the risk of active managers getting it wrong too. Until I sold an active fund in which I was invested for 8 years, it underperformed the market branch mark.

Just intrigued, I have noticed a few posters including yourself use American English spellings, for example, “globalization” and “labor”. I see you have posted that you are based in Auckland, but do you bring an American perspective to the threads? Or, since I was at school in Auckland in the 70’s and 80’s, have American spellings become the standard?

[Rawz]

Just my iPhone corrects to US english. Probably a way to change it but yolo :)

[Bjauck]

Just my iPhone corrects to US english. Probably a way to change it but yolo :)Fair enough. However in iOS 16 Settings, general, language & region should give you the option to change to NZ settings. If you want to do that it takes about a 30 seconds.

[Rawz]

Fair enough. However in iOS 16 Settings, general, language & region should give you the option to change to NZ settings. If you want to do that it takes about a 30 seconds.

Thanks, it worked! You're my savor

[Bjauck]

Thanks, it worked! You're my savor I savour the sweet taste of your thanks!

[Bjauck]

Awfully complicated, open to abuse and very expensive to administer. Our's on the other hand is simply and easy with a reasonable tax rate. Best to leave it alone. As with tax-free income thresholds, Why do many other countries stick with gst or vat exemptions? Maybe it is about helping make necessities more affordable too. Ease of administration is not the only yardstick for a tax.

However is it easier in making so many more needing to apply for working for families credit for survival instead? The NZ government likes to see more begging bowls?

[mike2020]

I find the tax free threshold to be an interesting one. It is probably achievable now with the increased tax take. It does need to be accounted for in the higher tax brackets apparently. Less popular.

The state like's to manage the children's pocket money I'm sure. The appearance of benevolence. I heard a guy, who sounded like he had at least half a brain, telling people if National were elected they were planning on taking away smoko. If he tells two friends...

[winner69]

Really high valuations a while ago ….a guy on cnbc said “people are most credulous when they are most happy."

Don’t know what they feel today

[Bjauck]

Really high valuations a while ago ….a guy on cnbc said “people are most credulous when they are most happy."

Don’t know what they feel today
Necessity is the mother of invention; desperation the father of brilliance!

[Hoop]

biggest daily rallies always bear rallies .... moves today suggest short covering and maybe re - positioning ? massive moves lol some stuff
hit the right one and your rich in a day


Does that work the other way too? Massive moves lol hit the wrong one and you're poor in a day?

Proof that you shouldn't fiddle in the market while the Bear is roaming around..Inexperienced people have this misconception that shorting a Bear Market is the way to riches..When the bear is roaming around staying in the market is risky as there is no 100% safe place to hide..That's why the biggest one day rallies occur during a bear market, the bear has sniffed you out and mauled you with margin calls. Therefore these rallies are not due to optimistic buyers but forced buying to salvaging what's left of your portfolio (if any).

Sudden rallies like this makes me more pessimistic as I see more market money suddeningly evaporating away. The number (%) size of the rally shows the number size of Shorters losing their shirts (pun:p).

Below is a table confirming Bull's post.

14307

Copper Indicator.. My favourite bear to bull cycle reversion duck is near 100% true..The hard part is reading the chart to see when copper's downtrend or large fall has reached it's end-game..Lines connecting data points on charts helps..To date as I said in my earlier post the confirmation of a short/medium term copper breakout is not convincing..The long term chart below gives you a better perspective (seeing the full picture)

14308

To help you, a good guide is to see if the slowed down production/manufacturing companies hit by recession effected sales start to increase their raw material inventories. So far to date there has been no recession...Yet!!!!
Will there be an USA recession? My next favourite duck is the inverted curve warning a recession to come. The size of the USA inversion is very worrying. (see chart below) They say that NZ is OK but the NZ yield curve is flat with a very shallow inversion.
Remember my Elephant flat mate post..That elephant in my post is the USA..USA will affect us all. Europe + UK combined economies are nearly as large as USA and China comes third...Reflect on what state they will be in in 6 months time.

14309

Is this rally the birth of a new bull calf?...These last 3 years has been a crazy against the odds (theories) situation, so I don't rule anything out as sentiment drives demand..and if the majority of market investors are optimistically bullish then fundamentals take a back seat.

Which brings me to an experienced sharetrader occasion..Having seen many Bear Markets (which are rarer and shorter than bull markets) I've noticed that a good time to buy is when the last optimistic poster goes silent..(Contrarian Strategy (https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/contrarian-investing/)).

[mike2020]

In other words give it a rest Alok :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

biggest daily rallies always bear rallies .... moves today suggest short covering and maybe re - positioning ? massive moves lol some stuff
hit the right one and your rich in a day


Proof that you shouldn't fiddle in the market while the Bear is roaming around..Inexperienced people have this misconception that shorting a Bear Market is the way to riches..When the bear is roaming around staying in the market is risky as there is no 100% safe place to hide..That's why the biggest one day rallies occur during a bear market, the bear has sniffed you out and mauled you with margin calls. Therefore these rallies are not due to optimistic buyers but forced buying to salvaging what's left of your portfolio (if any).

Sudden rallies like this makes me more pessimistic as I see more market money suddeningly evaporating away. The number (%) size of the rally shows the number size of Shorters losing their shirts (pun:p).

Below is a table confirming Bull's post.

...


Good point - and the table (above in your post) clearly confirms that most big rallies happen in bear markets.

Only thing I wonder is - when does a bear market change to a bull market? At the (posthum identifiable) bottom - or some time later when various indicators started to flip?

You always have a big rally at the time the trend is changing (i.e. lifting the SP form the bottom or giving birth to a bull calf as you called it). Does this still count as bear market rally, or is this posthum reclassified as bull market rally? At the time it happens nobody would know ... but if it counts as bear market rally, than maybe the table is somewhat misleading?

[alokdhir]

In other words give it a rest Alok :t_up:

OK boss as u say ...:p

All have their ways mate ...:cool:

[Bobdn]

Best two day gain on the SP500 since those unbelievably dark days in March 2020. Honestly, I'm pretty resilient but all those limit down days during that period had me worried.

Is it possible the Democrats will take the House? Will that cause a steep drop? So much to worry about day to day, it's easier to just stay long.

[Bjauck]

Best two day gain on the SP500 since those unbelievably dark days in March 2020. Honestly, I'm pretty resilient but all those limit down days during that period had me worried.

Is it possible the Democrats will take the House? Will that cause a steep drop? So much to worry about day to day, it's easier to just stay long. The Republicans are the crazy scary folk these days.

[Bjauck]

Historically share market performance was best when control of Congress was split.
Stock Performance And The Political Party In Power: An Historical Look At The Past 75 Yearshttps://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2021/01/12/stock-performance-and-the-political-party-in-power-an-historical-look-at-the-past-75-years/?sh=68b81c327a64

[Muse]

The Republicans are the crazy scary folk these days.

I think the thing that worries many from a stock market / "Black Monday" perspective is after they take control of the house they are likely chicken and refuse to raise the debt ceiling in order to force cuts to social security. The USA defaulting on its interest payments and sovereign debt would bring about a repeat on black monday. Let's hope there are enough adults left in the republican party to not let that happen.

[bull....]

not much big news this week but plenty of FOMC speakers so that speak will give indications of if they are happy about stock bounce and dollar fall rate fall etc etc ... and rate hints for december

[Bjauck]

I think the thing that worries many from a stock market / "Black Monday" perspective is after they take control of the house they are likely chicken and refuse to raise the debt ceiling in order to force cuts to social security. The USA defaulting on its interest payments and sovereign debt would bring about a repeat on black monday. Let's hope there are enough adults left in the republican party to not let that happen. There is still the worry the crazy wing of Republicans may still be tempted go the full Liz Truss - Tax cuts without organising payment for them.

[alokdhir]

not much big news this week but plenty of FOMC speakers so that speak will give indications of if they are happy about stock bounce and dollar fall rate fall etc etc ... and rate hints for december

This they discussed on CNBC whole day on Thursday ...all know all FED speakers will reiterate that theme ..." Higher Rates for LONGER " ....what else u think they will say ...they dont like this loosening of monetary conditions ....like 30 years mortgage rate falling 55 bps in one day !!!

Terminal rate is still projected to be around 5% ...nothing has changed ....Nov CPI data before the next meeting maybe be bigger deal now as that data is not controlled by market forces but by reality on grass root level

FED most likely is going 50bps up in Dec either way as all know Fed over tighten is lesser sin then under ...Mr Powell said it clearly and they will do just that ...no big mystery

[bull....]

This they discussed on CNBC whole day on Thursday ...all know all FED speakers will reiterate that theme ..." Higher Rates for LONGER " ....what else u think they will say ...they dont like this loosening of monetary conditions ....like 30 years mortgage rate falling 55 bps in one day !!!

Terminal rate is still projected to be around 5% ...nothing has changed ....Nov CPI data before the next meeting maybe be bigger deal now as that data is not controlled by market forces but by reality on grass root level

FED most likely is going 50bps up in Dec either way as all know Fed over tighten is lesser sin then under ...Mr Powell said it clearly and they will do just that ...no big mystery

you will like this article

Harbour Asset Management's Chris Di Leva reminds investors that over the long term the New Zealand market has delivered out-sized returns. But there are idiosyncrasies in the local market can deliver both positive and negative outperformance

https://www.interest.co.nz/investing/118422/harbour-asset-managements-chris-di-leva-reminds-investors-over-long-term-new

[BlackPeter]

There is still the worry the crazy wing of Republicans may still be tempted go the full Liz Truss - Tax cuts without organising payment for them.

Not sure they have at this stage a long enough lever to do that ... even if some of them might want to ...

[causecelebre]

Best thing the Republicans can do is cut ties completely with Trump. His inclusion ruined the mi-terms for the Republicans. Also the results and the exit polls have shown the US voter is a born again centrist. The Republicans need to first fix crazy then fix policy with someone like Ron Desantis

[bull....]

this story has the potential to drive nz50 lower over time if public out rage occurs during the cost of living crisis. power companies may need a risk premium to there stock prices now ? lower div coming or stalled div's ?

Unions are piling pressure on the Government to reform the electricity industry, saying big power firms have starved the electricity network of investment while hiking prices and paying out $3.7 billion in “excess dividends” to shareholders

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130454686/unions-accuse-big-power-firms-of-failing-people-the-planet-and-the-economy

[Bobdn]

As long as the govt continues to own 50 per cent of three of them, and these companies are in people's kiwisavers (they are in a disproportionate amount) I'm guessing the govt will not have an appetite to do not much at all.

Also the actual electricity crisis in Europe helps these companies tremendously from a PR perspective: sure prices are high but at least bills aren't $1500 a month and there's no black outs! Gee, it's almost as if the market works in NZ

Of course it's just our massive dams that couldnt be built today and Huntly that couldn't be built today that saves us.

[nztx]

As long as the govt continues to own 50 per cent of three of them, and these companies are in people's kiwisavers (they are in a disproportionate amount) I'm guessing the govt will not have an appetite to do not much at all.

Also the actual electricity crisis in Europe helps these companies tremendously from a PR perspective: sure prices are high but at least bills aren't $1500 a month and there's no black outs! Gee, it's almost as if the market works in NZ

Of course it's just our massive dams that couldnt be built today and Huntly that couldn't be built today that saves us.


Probably better chance of the current blind & ignorant Beehive squatters doing a bash on the big Aussie banks instead ;)

Is there anything they haven't had an ineffective whiny yelp at ? ;)

[bull....]

As long as the govt continues to own 50 per cent of three of them, and these companies are in people's kiwisavers (they are in a disproportionate amount) I'm guessing the govt will not have an appetite to do not much at all.

Also the actual electricity crisis in Europe helps these companies tremendously from a PR perspective: sure prices are high but at least bills aren't $1500 a month and there's no black outs! Gee, it's almost as if the market works in NZ

Of course it's just our massive dams that couldnt be built today and Huntly that couldn't be built today that saves us.

public pressure always makes govt change to what ever poll's best

[Bobdn]

Yes that's true, the govt is super poll driven and polling every week.

I'm 13 per cent now in NZ shares and that feels too much. Down from 16 per cent so I'm doing my best. Got a house in NZ, that's more than enough risk..

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-prices-in-official-cash-rate-peak-of-5pc-but-doubts-emerge/Z6EA2WBSBJFSRJEF5EM43EABXI/

The other side's story why OCR wont go to 5+% !!

[Aaron]

this story has the potential to drive nz50 lower over time if public out rage occurs during the cost of living crisis. power companies may need a risk premium to there stock prices now ? lower div coming or stalled div's ?

Unions are piling pressure on the Government to reform the electricity industry, saying big power firms have starved the electricity network of investment while hiking prices and paying out $3.7 billion in “excess dividends” to shareholders

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130454686/unions-accuse-big-power-firms-of-failing-people-the-planet-and-the-economy

I doubt it will make much difference in a couple of weeks from now. Merdian got caught spilling water back in Dec 2019 to keep wholesale prices high. Someone should have been jailed for that sort of carry on but nothing happened. The media will be rushing to the next mole hill to make a mountain out of rather than following up on the stories that matter.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300190244/lack-of-competition-pushed-up-prices-when-meridian-spilled-water-electricity-authority-says#:~:text=It%20earlier%20issued%20a%20prelimina ry,and%20lower%20wholesale%20electricity%20prices.

In your article I see this quote from Meridian.

Meridian said it disagreed with the union-backed report.
“We are a company of people who care for New Zealanders and we're working hard to deliver a clean energy future that is good for everyone,” it said in a statement.

Working hard to deliver clean energy??? I obviously do not understand how the power market works but I would have thought spilling water to get the higher rates from other non-renewable energy sources does not sound honest or clean.

Is 3 years enough to turn around a corrupt organisation or are the spin doctors boldly lying as they know lying is so prevalent in today's society no one even cares anymore.

Mind you the report is from a "green union" group so no doubt distorted beyond belief with lazy media not checking the figures before posting.

We need Snoopy to get in here and tell us if the report has any credibility, I think there was mention of capital from thin air as the companies paid out more in dividends than profits.

[BlackPeter]

Yes that's true, the govt is super poll driven and polling every week.

I'm 13 per cent now in NZ shares and that feels too much. Down from 16 per cent so I'm doing my best. Got a house in NZ, that's more than enough risk..

Impossible to predict the future.

Hey - we could have next year a wise and forward looking government turning NZ in these uncertain times into the Switzerland of the South Pacific, couldn't we?

If this happens you probably would wish to be with more than just 13% invested in NZ :) ;

But sure - I might just be dreaming. More likely we end up again with with what we have now (no matter whether National or Labour led): A government with good intentions but little ability to execute and somehow meddling through. Still, if we do that better than some others (which might not be hard), we still might end up being one of the luckier countries.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Yes that's true, the govt is super poll driven and polling every week.

I'm 13 per cent now in NZ shares and that feels too much. Down from 16 per cent so I'm doing my best. Got a house in NZ, that's more than enough risk..

I agree with the posts Govt unlikely to do anything re power prices. I read the Meridian report. Revealing with coal and oil generation on the outer and wind and solar in the cost per unit of power has halved. Does this show up in reduced prices for the consumer.

Guess the right answer Y or N

[Bjauck]

Yes that's true, the govt is super poll driven and polling every week.

I'm 13 per cent now in NZ shares and that feels too much. Down from 16 per cent so I'm doing my best. Got a house in NZ, that's more than enough risk.. The NZ investment benchmark I use - Smartshares NZ Top 50 ETF has returned 11% pa for the past 10 years, under a mostly low interest rate environment. I am not sure how likely it is to return as much for the next 10 years under a higher interest rate regime, if that continues. Unless as BP suggests NZ becomes a Switzerland, which would require much demolition of vested interests and political pain for the parties that implement the changes.

NZ cannot become an Ireland as I think Ireland's success is predicated on its being an EU member yet with a lower tax environment. Switzerland is also in a sweet spot in the middle of rich Western Europe too.

[bull....]

guess your all right govt probably do nothing ..... nothing petrol , nothing supermarkets , nothing nothing nothing on almost everything lol so the smart money would be on nothing

anyway see the fed speakers are jaw boning this morning that the market got ahead of itself .... so a consolidation this week ?

[Hoop]

Finally we saw something concrete in data which matters ...just a beginning of better times or just one off ...only time will tell but like heard many times on CNBC today that investors need stay in the market rather then trying to time the market

Dr Copper is showing early signs of positivity ahead ....but again before I upset permabears that nothing is confirmed till we get another few more data points showing inflation will continue to cool ...but today's data is surely very positive and its REAL
alokdhir posted this on 11th Nov..
The medium term chart below shows up to and including the 11th Nov.
The breakout is one data point, the indicators are very encouraging but caution is still needed..We need the breakout to be sustainable to be be convincing. Looking at the copper chart previous price attempts to break through the resistance zone were with lower volumes so the buyer strength wasn't powerful enough to break through even though the indicators were encouraging..This time the buyer strength is more powerful (higher volume)...but is it powerful enough?
Today (14th Nov US time) we see the price fall back into the soup (resistance zone). It fell as low as $3.73 then stopped..This fall is expected and still encouraging as it is retesting the breakout zone. This retest is a common action after a breakout.
If the breakout is genuine (a continuation upwards) then according to market physics the resistance zone becomes a support zone which then requires a powerful seller strength to break back below $3.70.
Note that the breakout has to go above the ~$4.00 area for Copper to reverse from a Bear market back to Bull Market. This I think is what is required (a definite end to the downtrend) to meet the criteria of Copper being a leading indicator in the Equity Bear endgame.

So far so good..alokdhir...Lets hope the rising volume is due to factories buying up raw materials for near future increase in production demand. Warehouse stock storage is low but don't read to much into that re pricing (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#30days)...

At time of posting this Copper has risen off the $3.73 low point (another data point) to $3.79..encouraging.https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/001_smile.gif The above link also shows current prices on the 24 hour chart..

EDIT:- ERROR My chart below showing $3.76 was not todays closing price....

14318

[alokdhir]

guess your all right govt probably do nothing ..... nothing petrol , nothing supermarkets , nothing nothing nothing on almost everything lol so the smart money would be on nothing

anyway see the fed speakers are jaw boning this morning that the market got ahead of itself .... so a consolidation this week ?

" Govt has no business to be in any business " Famous quote from capitalist economy

We all admire capitalism as we all are stock holders ...so why we want Govt to intervene in anything ...let market forces decide how companies need behave

Shareholders interest only shud matter to Boards nothing else as long as they are following Rules made by Govts of the land

Govt shud be only in the business of making rules for its people not directly involved or micromanaging any business ....this has proved to be best policy always

Govt or legislature makes rules and enforce them in the right spirit ...Companies can do anything to maximise shareholders wealth within those rules

So doing nothing to circumvent market forces is the right thing to do in the long run ....UK's mess caused by trying to help people but actually they have managed to hurt them ...less Govts do better it is ....

[winner69]

Suppose the RBNZ will hike the OCR 75bp next week ....... lots of inflationary surprises in recent data

'terminal' rate over 5% then

[bottomfeeder]

Suppose the RBNZ will hike the OCR 75bp next week ....... lots of inflationary surprises in recent data

'terminal' rate over 5% then

Would have to go higher. Inflation supposedly at over 7%, but cash rate at 5%. Someone is holding this back. Only stooges at the Reserve bank. The puppetmasters dont want interest rates to go higher because they are fooling themselves into thinking inflation is only temporary.

[alokdhir]

Suppose the RBNZ will hike the OCR 75bp next week ....... lots of inflationary surprises in recent data

'terminal' rate over 5% then

Dont know who is right ...only time will tell ...ANZ says 5.75% ...ASB says 5.25% and BNZ and Harbour thinks its just 4.5 % ....W69 thinks its 6.5% ??

Guess we will know on 23rd ...when its either 50 or 75 ...I will be looking for 50 !!

[winner69]

RBA increases its quests as to where inflation is heading ….but goes dovish on rate increases …..interesting

[winner69]

WW3 is actually bullish for the stock market because it means Jerome Powell will cut rates to 0 again

[bull....]

WW3 is actually bullish for the stock market because it means Jerome Powell will cut rates to 0 again

wont help much if your not alive

[Muse]

wont help much if your not alive

what, you don't have a bunker?

[bull....]

what, you don't have a bunker?

building costs in NZ are to expensive for me

[winner69]

There was a famous saying during the Cuban crisis

During the 1962 Cuban missile crisis a young rookie broker wanted to sell. His boss said “buy”. If the nukes fly we’re dead and it don’t matter. If it’s peace then stocks go up.

[peat]

Hallejulah brother!!

Tho I do accept it is the government's role to redistribute some of the wealth so as to reduce exaggerated inequity, because otherwise crime destroys the fabric of society - which we can see starting to occur in NZ now actually but of course Sth Africa is the best example.


" Govt has no business to be in any business " Famous quote from capitalist economy

We all admire capitalism as we all are stock holders ...so why we want Govt to intervene in anything ...let market forces decide how companies need behave

Shareholders interest only shud matter to Boards nothing else as long as they are following Rules made by Govts of the land

Govt shud be only in the business of making rules for its people not directly involved or micromanaging any business ....this has proved to be best policy always

Govt or legislature makes rules and enforce them in the right spirit ...Companies can do anything to maximise shareholders wealth within those rules

So doing nothing to circumvent market forces is the right thing to do in the long run ....UK's mess caused by trying to help people but actually they have managed to hurt them ...less Govts do better it is ....

[bull....]

guess your all right govt probably do nothing ..... nothing petrol , nothing supermarkets , nothing nothing nothing on almost everything lol so the smart money would be on nothing

anyway see the fed speakers are jaw boning this morning that the market got ahead of itself .... so a consolidation this week ?

consolidation week playing out so far

[winner69]

Some said the Fed was going to pivot soon but... The Taylor Rule indicates rates need to go to 8% plus

The new Taylor Rule based on Swiftie ticket prices.

[alokdhir]

Looks like Bond market is becoming more and more sure of impending recession with 10 Y Yield dropping like stone ....with Yield Curve most Inverted in 40 years !!

FED will surely make note of that ...chances are getting more towards 50bps Dec move as we move more higher above neutral rates ...

Eventually all including FED will realise that times of 5% rates are long gone ...so much debt fuelled growth / living these days ...makes everything supersensitive to higher rates ...average debt per person in developed world is rising day by day ...thus making him more vulnerable to higher rates so it takes smaller and smaller hikes to bring him to his knees

[bull....]

Some said the Fed was going to pivot soon but... The Taylor Rule indicates rates need to go to 8% plus

The new Taylor Rule based on Swiftie ticket prices.

bullard was speaking today and said rates needed in the 5 - 7% range based on there view of the taylor rule. might have seen your post winner and thought needed to reply

[causecelebre]

bullard was speaking today and said rates needed in the 5 - 7% range based on there view of the taylor rule. might have seen your post winner and thought needed to reply

Its Bullard's last year, his opinions will have no influence on Q1. Also that comment is completely unproductive and the market will see through it

[bull....]

Its Bullard's last year, his opinions will have no influence on Q1. Also that comment is completely unproductive and the market will see through it

all part of the jawboning to keep the market in check

[causecelebre]

all part of the jawboning to keep the market in check

Yes! Completely

[alokdhir]

SF Fed's views seems pretty spot on to me ...it states that 50% of US inflation is supply side , 30% Demand side and 20% unknown factors ...

With Global rates rising leading to not only Global demand reduction but thus easing supply side constraints too thus Inflation is getting tackled on two fronts ...Why this Inflation became too hot so fast maybe due to the fact that with supply side badly constrained it cud not handle even small demand increases

But similarly it shud fall off equally fast if above was real reasons for such sharp spike in inflation ....we will know for sure in next 6 months till then its a mystery and markets will keep guessing its outcome ...but if it happens like some expect ie fall off as fast as it ran up then markets will rejoice big time in second half 2023 otherwise it will keep sulking but still not fall of a cliff ...I reckon

Other's view is Inflation will stay with us longer thus rates will keep up longer thus stocks will languish rangebound for longer

Either way Central Banks will go for Overkill as thats the Only remedy which has proved to be best strategy vs inflation in the past ...half measures dont work

So expecting rates being increased at PACE worldwide ...NZ will do the same ...75 bps actually makes sense for Wednesday and another 75 in Feb then hold tight as ANZ is advocating ...

If we shareholders are lucky then we will see Inflation falling very fast from Q3 ...fingers crossed ....dont fear the mild recession ...most good companies will cope better than we expect as it will reduce labour related problems in a big way without actually killing demand big time

[winner69]

Why one shouldn't watch too much CNBC (and other media) - it makes out things are bad, really bad, when in reality things are pretty good

Kike this from a commentator in US - Its very odd because inflation is crazy, housing is collapsing, stocks and bonds down, credit card debt setting records... yet every store, hotel and restaurant packed to the gills. Airport packed, etc

[causecelebre]

...So expecting rates being increased at PACE worldwide ...NZ will do the same ...75 bps actually makes sense for Wednesday and another 75 in Feb then hold tight as ANZ is advocating ...


I wonder if Orr will want to see a bit more shock in the markets and not have them shrug it off. If the odds are good enough (like really good) i'd have a small punt on 100 bps

[Rawz]

a few guru's out there on the world stage now saying disinflation is coming. apparently we are not in a secular inflation trend.

fed pivot cant be far away then.

gosh i cant keep up. thinking of just selling up the portfolio and going equal portions FPH, MFT, EBO, SUM, BRM, MLN, IFT and check back in 10 years when the kids are older

[bull....]

so many on here thinking fed pivot is the time for stock prices to go to the moon , it is not.
when the fed pivot's it means company profits are well and truly going to start heading down and with them stock prices.
anyway big day wed for ORR will he pander to robinson ?

[Rawz]

so many on here thinking fed pivot is the time for stock prices to go to the moon , it is not.
when the fed pivot's it means company profits are well and truly going to start heading down and with them stock prices.
anyway big day wed for ORR will he pander to robinson ?

Yeah thats true actually

[see weed]

so many on here thinking fed pivot is the time for stock prices to go to the moon , it is not.
when the fed pivot's it means company profits are well and truly going to start heading down and with them stock prices.
anyway big day wed for ORR will he pander to robinson ?
Some of the good divy payers may drop eg CEN which is a bit down already.

[alokdhir]

so many on here thinking fed pivot is the time for stock prices to go to the moon , it is not.
when the fed pivot's it means company profits are well and truly going to start heading down and with them stock prices.
anyway big day wed for ORR will he pander to robinson ?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/markets-will-shift-to-a-hope-phase-next-year-and-investors-would-be-wise-not-to-miss-it-says-goldman-sachs-11669031977?mod=home-page

U will enjoy this article ...if u can get next phase's timing right !!!

[Balance]

Bye bye $$$$ - another day, another disastrous day for crypto dummies.

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/21/silence-digital-currency-group-dcg-genesis-crypto

[Balance]

Inflection point for stock markets getting closer each time crypto crashes.

Bring it on!!!!

[causecelebre]

Bye bye $$$$ - another day, another disastrous day for crypto dummies.

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/21/silence-digital-currency-group-dcg-genesis-crypto

The schadenfreude is strong with this one

[Entrep]

A levered tech industry crashing harder than other assets in a bear market. Who woulda thunk it?

I am sure they are also gloating to Netflix, Tesla and other tech stock holders... right?

[Jaa]

so many on here thinking fed pivot is the time for stock prices to go to the moon , it is not.
when the fed pivot's it means company profits are well and truly going to start heading down and with them stock prices.
anyway big day wed for ORR will he pander to robinson ?

Problem for Orr is the Reserve Bank takes a 3 month holiday after this week. The next scheduled meeting to set interest rates not till late Feb. As we learnt last year nothing not even other Kiwis can disrupt summer.

[Balance]

The schadenfreude is strong with this one

Farmer from Palmerston North was advised to put his money into Bitcoin last year.

He asked a simple question - ‘Where do bitcoins come from? What is the asset backing of Bitcoin?’

The Bitcoin pusher went into a long spew about the usual BS about Bitcoin.

After listening to the spew (not spiel), the farmer replied - ‘So you are asking me to exchange my NZ$, earned from selling produce grown with hard work, into US$ and then, give the US$ to change into Bitcoin created out of thin air by an unknown entity?’

‘All to save a few dollars in fees to circumvent the regulated banking system? The very regulations which give my money protection from scams?’m

‘No thanks and don’t ever darken my door again with that crap.’

So a simple farmer can suss out the ponzi scam which is crypto!

True story - farmer is father of good friend of mine.

[JBmurc]

Farmer from Palmerston North was advised to put his money into Bitcoin last year.

He asked a simple question - ‘Where do bitcoins come from? What is the asset backing of Bitcoin?’

The Bitcoin pusher went into a long spew about the usual BS about Bitcoin.

After listening to the spew (not spiel), the farmer replied - ‘So you are asking me to exchange my NZ$, earned from selling produce grown with hard work, into US$ and then, give the US$ to change into Bitcoin created out of thin air by an unknown entity?’

‘All to save a few dollars in fees to circumvent the regulated banking system? The very regulations which give my money protection from scams?’m

‘No thanks and don’t ever darken my door again with that crap.’

So a simple farmer can suss out the ponzi scam which is crypto!

True story - farmer is father of good friend of mine.

And like all Ponzi schemes its all coming apart the house of cards won't be standing for much longer.. I know so many sucked into the so called easy money cryptos ..
And now as a self employed Investor/trader I seems to attract the sales pitch why I need to get onboard asap >>> or why I haven't ? ..

#1- I'm not paid to promote Cryptos like say CNBC with their expert crypto analysts that make very little sense but talk the talk of amazing gains .. funny enough we now see CNBC hosts now distancing themselves from the whole narrative...

#2- wheres the end user case ????

[LEMON]

And like all Ponzi schemes its all coming apart the house of cards won't be standing for much longer.. I know so many sucked into the so called easy money cryptos ..
And now as a self employed Investor/trader I seems to attract the sales pitch why I need to get onboard asap >>> or why I haven't ? ..

#1- I'm not paid to promote Cryptos like say CNBC with their expert crypto analysts that make very little sense but talk the talk of amazing gains .. funny enough we now see CNBC hosts now distancing themselves from the whole narrative...

#2- wheres the end user case ????

Hey stop with the nonsense JBmurc, we all know you were investing in a scam token called "cummies" a pornstars token, get off your high horse, pretending like you didn't get swindled by the "crypto" scammers, lol

[mike2020]

Is there a case for a .5 rise today? Oils down. I read yesterday people are selling houses at a loss in parts of Auck and Ham so the pain is already being felt and a lot of people are yet to come off fixed. Punishing recent home buyers into liquidation surely isn't fair?

[LEMON]

Farmer from Palmerston North was advised to put his money into Bitcoin last year.

He asked a simple question - ‘Where do bitcoins come from? What is the asset backing of Bitcoin?’

The Bitcoin pusher went into a long spew about the usual BS about Bitcoin.

After listening to the spew (not spiel), the farmer replied - ‘So you are asking me to exchange my NZ$, earned from selling produce grown with hard work, into US$ and then, give the US$ to change into Bitcoin created out of thin air by an unknown entity?’

‘All to save a few dollars in fees to circumvent the regulated banking system? The very regulations which give my money protection from scams?’m

‘No thanks and don’t ever darken my door again with that crap.’

So a simple farmer can suss out the ponzi scam which is crypto!

True story - farmer is father of good friend of mine.

Your farmer friend should learn about the NZD, that's truly created out of thin air and you can guarantee a 100nzd today will buy you less next year than it did this year every year for the remainder of the ponzi

1 bitcoin needs a real commodity to be mined, you can't just create it out of thin air lol plus there will only ever be a set amount, today's purchasing power compared to 13years ago of 1 Bitcoin can buy you more goods, its not losing purchasing power like the NZD,
Im mean sure 69k to 15500k draw down during the typical bitcoin 4 year cycle on top of a bear market, after the largest credit expansion in terms of the Fiat ponzi, still.it holds its purchasing power in terms of long-term value

[Balance]

Your farmer friend should learn about the NZD, that's truly created out of thin air and you can guarantee a 100nzd today will buy you less next year than it did this year every year for the remainder of the ponzi

1 bitcoin needs a real commodity to be mined, you can't just create it out of thin air lol plus there will only ever be a set amount, today's purchasing power compared to 13years ago of 1 Bitcoin can buy you more goods, its not losing purchasing power like the NZD,
Im mean sure 69k to 15500k draw down during the typical bitcoin 4 year cycle on top of a bear market, after the largest credit expansion in terms of the Fiat ponzi, still.it holds its purchasing power in terms of long-term value

Tell your inflation hedge BS to those who bought Bitcoin at $60,000.

[ynot]

Is there a case for a .5 rise today? Oils down. I read yesterday people are selling houses at a loss in parts of Auck and Ham so the pain is already being felt and a lot of people are yet to come off fixed. Punishing recent home buyers into liquidation surely isn't fair?
Fair has got nothing to do with it. It's just another cycle.

[LEMON]

Tell your inflation hedge BS to those who bought Bitcoin at $60,000.

Hey don't get upset with me cause you ain't willing to read a book, I know you're busy crying over Maoris in the racist forum and trusting the fiat ponzi

[Balance]

Hey don't get upset with me cause you ain't willing to read a book, I know you're busy crying over Maoris in the racist forum and trusting the fiat ponzi

Can sense you frothing around your mouth.

I LOVE it!

Tell us again about how Bitcoin was the perfect inflation hedge.

[Entrep]

BTC went to $69K and now $16K Good thing I’ve been warning you since it was $3K! I was right!

Man you lot are emotional.

14329

[LEMON]

Is there a case for a .5 rise today? Oils down. I read yesterday people are selling houses at a loss in parts of Auck and Ham so the pain is already being felt and a lot of people are yet to come off fixed. Punishing recent home buyers into liquidation surely isn't fair?

Yet the retail shops, restaurants and cafes are packed
Friends booking holidays
I see renovations continue
Credit cards and pay laters being abused
I know a few who have had pay increases which will continue consumption, and the true effects of rate increases haven't even been felt yet, 2023 will be a tough year especially if you still live like cheap money has no premium, and supply are abundant and affordable

Even if a pivot happens it won't be a straight to the printer type of pivot, but when it comes you can bet your bottom dollar the QE will be massive, and it only debases your purchasing power and savings more, just so as that the rate on government debt is easier to pay back
Fiat Ponzi

[Balance]

Crypto & Bitcoin - the perfect inflation hedge!

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/paul-tudor-jones-says-crypto-is-his-preferred-inflation-hedge-over-gold-right-now.html

Only down 73% since October 2021 when it was pushed by the scammers & their 'experts' - sucking in the dummies & reef fishes.

[alokdhir]

Today is pretty important day for NZ market keeping in view Very Important OCR decision with new set of RBNZ data after August where terminal projected was just 4.1 % ....now if todays projections show 5-5.2% then nothing big will happen as rates market is already there but any different it can move thus equity too

As after this RBNZ has a natural 3 months break so I reckon they will like to keep the pressure by not saying or doing anything even perceived as dovish

75bips and 5.25% new terminal rate projection is my Call for the day ...Equity market may have some relief in days to come on the fact that no more worrying for next 90 days ....

[causecelebre]

Crypto & Bitcoin - the perfect inflation hedge!

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/paul-tudor-jones-says-crypto-is-his-preferred-inflation-hedge-over-gold-right-now.html

Only down 73% since October 2021 when it was pushed by the scammers & their 'experts' - sucking in the dummies & reef fishes.

I see your 73% and raise you a few more bips....

(drawdown from the highs)

14330

[causecelebre]

This looks pretty average too, Balance. I hope your Farmer mate wasn't involved in South Canterbury Finance

14331

[Entrep]

Balance seems confused that one of us is Paul Tudor Jones.

[Balance]

Balance seems confused that one of us is Paul Tudor Jones.

No confusion - that was the big push & talk by the scammers & dummies last year.

Crypto as the ultimate inflation hedge.

What a freaking bunch of dummies to believe that crap.

[LEMON]

No confusion - that was the big push & talk by the scammers & dummies last year.

Crypto as the ultimate inflation hedge.

What a freaking bunch of dummies to believe that crap.

You could say the same for the Ponzi housing market and the Ponzi bond market

[bull....]

Today is pretty important day for NZ market keeping in view Very Important OCR decision with new set of RBNZ data after August where terminal projected was just 4.1 % ....now if todays projections show 5-5.2% then nothing big will happen as rates market is already there but any different it can move thus equity too

As after this RBNZ has a natural 3 months break so I reckon they will like to keep the pressure by not saying or doing anything even perceived as dovish

75bips and 5.25% new terminal rate projection is my Call for the day ...Equity market may have some relief in days to come on the fact that no more worrying for next 90 days ....

true orr cred on line

[winner69]

Things are fine in this land of ours.

Having a ‘long lunch’ with a few mates today ….Dockside, Shed 5 and other places booked out.

What cost of living crisis …punters spending up like no tomorrow.

[Balance]

You could say the same for the Ponzi housing market and the Ponzi bond market

Keep sucking your bitcoin & crypto lemon.

[causecelebre]

Same out for dinner on Saturday. Flood and wine was flowing. As long as we have jobs. Its a recession when my neighbour looses their job. Its a depression when I loose mine

[LEMON]

Things are fine in this land of ours.

Having a ‘long lunch’ with a few mates today ….Dockside, Shed 5 and other places are booked out.

What cost of living crisis …punters spending up like no tomorrow.

Keep borrowing and spending like good little consumers, and don't worry that the fiat Ponzi is built on a foundation of lies and the hope you won't understand inflation is theft of your wealth, buy a home they say, it'll be a good inflation hedge but only after you pay us back with interest and make sure you have plenty costs along the way, like renovations, insurance, tax - imagine a section of dirt, wood, and stones would cost you a lifetime of energy and labour? Fiat Ponzi, anything to keep the credit expansion going to keep those institutions debt lower by debasing the value of your life savings, the joys of state-controlled currency!! Biggest Ponzi

[LEMON]

Keep sucking your bitcoin & crypto lemon.

Not crypto, crypto is a scam

Get off your arm chair go for a walk, movement is medicine, it will help you reflect back on your outdated opinions

[Balance]

Not crypto, crypto is a scam

Get off your arm chair go for a walk, movement is medicine, it will help you reflect back on your outdated opinions

Keep sucking the Bitcoin lemon - it’s what you like.

[LEMON]

Keep sucking the lemon - it’s what you like.

Like you do your imaginary farmer "friend"

Oh yeah farmer, say it louder
ITS A PONZI BALANCE

[see weed]

I am loving this Black Monday reading on a Wednesday, it is very entertaining. My friend planted a lemon tree about 7years ago . Now we have plenty of lemons :) I have removed the naughty bits.

[bull....]

Like you do your imaginary farmer "friend"



classic lol

[LEMON]

I am loving this Black Monday reading on a Wednesday, it is very entertaining. My friend planted a lemon tree about 7years ago . Now we have plenty of lemons :) I have removed the naughty bits.

When life gives you Lemons, make lemonade

When life gives you balance, you have to much time on your hands, peaking through the blinds, cause your new neighbors are brown

[alokdhir]

Market getting ready to hear the bad news ...all can see US markets close over 4000 is not helping us ...as we have RBNZ day

[Balance]

When life gives you Lemons, make lemonade

When life gives you balance, you have to much time on your hands, peaking through the blinds, cause your new neighbors are brown

Just keep sucking the bitcoin lemons - obviously works for you. :t_up:

[bull....]

ORR raises 75 and the terminal to 5.5% ... jumbo

[alokdhir]

ORR raises 75 and the terminal to 5.5% ... jumbo

Did he have any other choice ? He may have by Feb 23 ...

Boost to NZD will help !!!

[bull....]

Did he have any other choice ? He may have by Feb 23 ...

Boost to NZD will help !!!

forecasting recession 2nd half next yr and say they considered 100

terminal rate to 5.5 mean all those stock valuation need to be adjusted down over time and growth forecats with it

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Good for term deposits I guess.

[Muse]

ORR raises 75 and the terminal to 5.5% ... jumbo

and not just 5.5% - but above 5% throughout all of 2023 but 2024 as well.

of course its just their current forecast, and they haven't been all that hot on forecasts, but it is shot across the bow to get those longer term inflation expectations down.

[alokdhir]

and not just 5.5% - but above 5% throughout all of 2023 but 2024 as well.

of course its just their current forecast, and they haven't been all that hot on forecasts, but it is shot across the bow to get those longer term inflation expectations down.

Its not Gospel's truth though ...so market will try to use its own perceptions ...Market remembers what they said just last August ...from 4.1% to 5.5% ...maybe in Feb 23 they will do another somersault ...lol :p

But looks bad short term but good long term though

[Panda-NZ-]

Will this be the stake through the heart for NZ's property "industry"?

[850man]

How high will it have to go before the wasteful government spending that's fuelling inflation is curbed?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The impact of how long they expect rates to remain elevate is extremely important with property in my opinion. Property prices move slowly, so it allows adequate time for prices to reach levels backed by say DCF.

For example, good luck picking up a rental that net yields more than cash in the bank. Current rates aren't fully priced in. Housing has a long way to fall.

[JBmurc]

Will this be the stake through the heart for NZ's property "industry"?

certainly will see many bankruptcies across the sector ... and many thousands of RE agents have to find new jobs

[nztx]

How high will it have to go before the wasteful government spending that's fuelling inflation is curbed?


How many backsides lurking on pews in Government & quazi Government agencies & departments doing very little can be pruned ?

10,000 or 20,000 taken on all inhabiting Govt Employment villages across the country ? ;)

Could there be a new Ministry invented to investigate ? - Ministry of Wasteful Spending ? ;)

What would they likely uncover on the 8th Floor ? ;)

[alokdhir]

FED also did almost similar hawkish talk and still doing ...they also have indicated terminal rate above 5% but market is still not convinced that it will eventually go there and stay there for long ...

Similarly our RBNZ did super hawkish talk and projections ....market got scared but not Bond market ...10Y is still 4.21% and may come down today ...IMO equity market will also try to bounce back sooner then later ...its RV sector which is spooking market more since RYM results and seeing high debt with poor cash flows

[bull....]

orr was answering green mp this morning and she said do you want a recession and orr say yes

[alokdhir]

orr was answering green mp this morning and she said do you want a recession and orr say yes

Its like Bullard saying he wants 7% FED rates ...of course he and all Central Bankers will talk super hawkish ...as they try to get more out of rates markets without finally need to do that stuff which they said few months back

I am beginning to feel more and more positive for 2023 from equity markets perspective ...which will turn positive much before economies do !!!

[Getty]

How many backsides lurking on pews in Government & quazi Government agencies & departments doing very little can be pruned ?

10,000 or 20,000 taken on all inhabiting Govt Employment villages across the country ? ;)

Could there be a new Ministry invented to investigate ? - Ministry of Wasteful Spending ? ;)

What would they likely uncover on the 8th Floor ? ;)

Drain the swamp!

No kauri gum to be found in there.

[Entrep]

What could go wrong

14337

[LEMON]

What could go wrong

14337

Fiat Ponzi
If you're a saver, your savings are debased
If you borrow, the rates will get you
If you invest you have no choice but to accept the risk

When the Fiat Ponzi breaks, we all lose

[Panda-NZ-]

What could go wrong

14337

A paradox.. who needs savings when you can borrow it instead.

[t.rexjr]

What could go wrong

14337

Percentage value against a monetary value? Hard to know how the two really compare.

It does look like Covid prompted many to pay off their credit debt and now that debt level has returned to the trend.

QE reducing the value of the dollar and then inflation eating away at savings??

For what it's worth, here is a bigger chart showing... Something...

14339

Weirdly the Savings scribbly thing resembles the Bitcoin scribbly thing.

[winner69]

Professor says OCR hikes unnecessary and won’t stop inflation

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/479425/ocr-hike-not-fair-necessary-or-likely-to-stop-rising-prices-macroeconomics-expert-says

[Bobdn]

My trip is coming to an end and NOW the NZD is surging back into life. Oh well.

[percy]

https://stockhead.cmail20.com/t/d-l-zjlihe-yupddjlly-o/

[ronaldson]

I spoke to the Chief Economist at RBNZ today and advocated an alternative to raising the OCR further, or at least as far as it may presently be destined to go, with all the attendant pain to those households who unfortunately are significantly leveraged at this point in their life cycle. Those not in that situation are barely affected, and indeed a segment have yet more spending power as they are the beneficiaries of higher rates via bank deposits.

The RBNZ are confronting a circumstance where aggregate spending in the economy must slow (and/or savings rates rise), and believe the only lever available is to raise, and perhaps keep raising, the OCR until that occurs. But in NZ there is a clear option to do something else if there is the political will.

That is to increase the minimum Kiwisaver contribution from 3% to, say, 4% (still way less than the 12% personal contributions in Australia), which would take money out of circulation promptly and from a much wider swath of the population, but without those funds ending in the Government's coffers. Rather, the funds deposit into the individuals Kiwisaver account and create ongoing earnings pending their ultimate withdrawal on reaching retirement age.

The point is that this 1% is far less than the % of salary/income which would be permanently confiscated from borrowers if, for example, the OCR rises to, say, 5.5%, so all those who are significant borrowers will be much better off than otherwise. Also, there will be no further (or, maybe lesser) interest rates momentum to pressure the exchange rate, which should then be relatively stable.

Politically, this adjustment can be sold as a trade off against potential interest rate rises. And to help bring inflation under control. And it is arguably NOT a tax, which would be anathema to the Labour Government pre-election.

I understand there are those who are not Kiwisaver members, or who are on a contributions holiday (maybe those should be reviewed), or who already contribute 4%, 6%, 8% or 10% which are other statutory options. But a very large number should raise their contribution rate, for their and the countries long term benefit, and to assist the current fight against the fairly entrenched inflation situation now.

So what is not to like?

[hamish]

The less money I have in kiwisaver the better., Other than treating as some limited diversification in portfolio...the risk is that government can and will tinker with it's rules and regulate... Put another way, would I really trust the govt with my wealth.....not a chance. I actually like the idea in theory, add to the countries wealth balance sheet as it were....but in practice, zero trust in any government not to shift the dial for any reason... As funds continue to grow in kiwisaver in the billions, envious political and Agency eyes will look at it, look at the forward costs of their areas / retirement and health in the billions... Too tempting not to find reasons to asset test and substitute as example.

[thedrunkfish]

I spoke to the Chief Economist at RBNZ today and advocated an alternative to raising the OCR further, or at least as far as it may presently be destined to go, with all the attendant pain to those households who unfortunately are significantly leveraged at this point in their life cycle. Those not in that situation are barely affected, and indeed a segment have yet more spending power as they are the beneficiaries of higher rates via bank deposits.

The RBNZ are confronting a circumstance where aggregate spending in the economy must slow (and/or savings rates rise), and believe the only lever available is to raise, and perhaps keep raising, the OCR until that occurs. But in NZ there is a clear option to do something else if there is the political will.

That is to increase the minimum Kiwisaver contribution from 3% to, say, 4% (still way less than the 12% personal contributions in Australia), which would take money out of circulation promptly and from a much wider swath of the population, but without those funds ending in the Government's coffers. Rather, the funds deposit into the individuals Kiwisaver account and create ongoing earnings pending their ultimate withdrawal on reaching retirement age.

The point is that this 1% is far less than the % of salary/income which would be permanently confiscated from borrowers if, for example, the OCR rises to, say, 5.5%, so all those who are significant borrowers will be much better off than otherwise. Also, there will be no further (or, maybe lesser) interest rates momentum to pressure the exchange rate, which should then be relatively stable.

Politically, this adjustment can be sold as a trade off against potential interest rate rises. And to help bring inflation under control. And it is arguably NOT a tax, which would be anathema to the Labour Government pre-election.

I understand there are those who are not Kiwisaver members, or who are on a contributions holiday (maybe those should be reviewed), or who already contribute 4%, 6%, 8% or 10% which are other statutory options. But a very large number should raise their contribution rate, for their and the countries long term benefit, and to assist the current fight against the fairly entrenched inflation situation now.

So what is not to like?


The key here to me is "households who unfortunately are significantly leveraged at this point in their life cycle". Have they not been one of the biggest drivers of the problem? This implies to me that those who are highly leveraged are being unfairly burdened with the cost.

[Bobdn]

@Hamish. Quite right put the minimum amount into Kiwisaver to get the employer match. It's locked away for decades plus almost certainly the rules will continue to change and a high kiwisaver balance in the future could even be a disadvantage.

As you say, Kiwisaver will provide an irresistible temptation for the Government. At some stage super could be means tested and the Government of the day could declare, with much support from the majority of New Zealanders who never bothered to save, that high kiwisaver accounts means a lower super entitlement. People with even relatively modest kiwisaver account balances will be called "privileged" who must "pay their fair share". It's not fair! How come they have so much money in Kiwisaver! It's only right that the money is used for "equitable" outcomes etc

Who knows but why take the risk.

[Rawz]

The only reason why a future govt would means test super would be if the tax take couldnt handle the burden of payments.

this would only happen if the generation claiming the payments didn’t sufficiently pay enough tax in their lives to cover what is actually a growing problem in this country.

Michael Cullen was onto it when he started to put $2b away each year. Bill English stopped it because of GFC and Chch earthquakes. Big G Robertson can’t restart because of covid.

I was too young to know the story before these govts but I feel like it would have been highly beneficial if say another $20-$30bil of taxes was put away by the boomers into the nz super fund and the returns allowed to compound.

Then we wouldn’t need to discuss all these what ifs

[SailorRob]

The less money I have in kiwisaver the better., Other than treating as some limited diversification in portfolio...the risk is that government can and will tinker with it's rules and regulate... Put another way, would I really trust the govt with my wealth.....not a chance. I actually like the idea in theory, add to the countries wealth balance sheet as it were....but in practice, zero trust in any government not to shift the dial for any reason... As funds continue to grow in kiwisaver in the billions, envious political and Agency eyes will look at it, look at the forward costs of their areas / retirement and health in the billions... Too tempting not to find reasons to asset test and substitute as example.


Agreed....

[SailorRob]

The only reason why a future govt would means test super would be if the tax take couldnt handle the burden of payments.

this would only happen if the generation claiming the payments didn’t sufficiently pay enough tax in their lives to cover what is actually a growing problem in this country.

Michael Cullen was onto it when he started to put $2b away each year. Bill English stopped it because of GFC and Chch earthquakes. Big G Robertson can’t restart because of covid.

I was too young to know the story before these govts but I feel like it would have been highly beneficial if say another $20-$30bil of taxes was put away by the boomers into the nz super fund and the returns allowed to compound.

Then we wouldn’t need to discuss all these what ifs


OR if the government blew the tax that they took from said generation.

A generation could pay ten times as much tax as was needed and there still might not be enough, what did Friedman say about governments and sand in the Sahara...

[Bobdn]

"If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand." I had to look it up.

[blackcap]

The less money I have in kiwisaver the better., Other than treating as some limited diversification in portfolio...the risk is that government can and will tinker with it's rules and regulate... Put another way, would I really trust the govt with my wealth.....not a chance. I actually like the idea in theory, add to the countries wealth balance sheet as it were....but in practice, zero trust in any government not to shift the dial for any reason... As funds continue to grow in kiwisaver in the billions, envious political and Agency eyes will look at it, look at the forward costs of their areas / retirement and health in the billions... Too tempting not to find reasons to asset test and substitute as example.

Quite profound. Totally agree. I have a tiny bit in Kiwisaver. Opted out initially and just add the $1040 odd to get the top up. The rest I do myself.

[Bjauck]

...
That is to increase the minimum Kiwisaver contribution from 3% to, say, 4% (still way less than the 12% personal contributions in Australia), which would take money out of circulation promptly and from a much wider swath of the population, but without those funds ending in the Government's coffers. Rather, the funds deposit into the individuals Kiwisaver account and create ongoing earnings pending their ultimate withdrawal on reaching retirement age.

The point is that this 1% is far less than the % of salary/income which would be permanently confiscated from borrowers if, for example, the OCR rises to, say, 5.5%, so all those who are significant borrowers will be much better off than otherwise. Also, there will be no further (or, maybe lesser) interest rates momentum to pressure the exchange rate, which should then be relatively stable.... Sure. However, many of those who pay the current minimum contribution Kiwisaver rate could be on lower incomes, and need even penny to survive NZ's high cost society with higher inflation now. More people could opt out of Kiwisaver if minimum KiwiSaver contribution rates were increased.

[Bjauck]

Quite profound. Totally agree. I have a tiny bit in Kiwisaver. Opted out initially and just add the $1040 odd to get the top up. The rest I do myself.
If the government were to means test government superannuation, they would take into account assets not only in Kiwisaver, but those elsewhere held in your name, or that have been settled into family trusts. Means testing may become similar to what happens with the residential care subsidy.

[blackcap]

If the government were to means test government superannuation, they would take into account assets not only in Kiwisaver, but those elsewhere held in your name, or that have been settled into family trusts. Means testing may become similar to what happens with the residential care subsidy.

That is not why I did this. Less the govt can have say on, more of my own control. Also Kiwisaver is restrictive in that you cannot "DIY". You have a limited choice of funds. Means testing is not even on my radar.

[Bjauck]

That is not why I did this. Less the govt can have say on, more of my own control. Also Kiwisaver is restrictive in that you cannot "DIY". You have a limited choice of funds. Means testing is not even on my radar. Similar to a previous poster, I treat KiwiSaver as the managed fund exposure in my investments. I chose an active manager with solid performance. As far as govt control and oversight is concerned, I think it actually has the benefit of keeping costs under control. I plan to boost contributions in the next 12 years as I get closer to retirement age, and switch to a more conservative fund at some stage. It would be frustrating for me that DIY is not available, if the balance comprised the majority of the nest egg.

[tim23]

Agreed....
Hamish you seem to be a bit of a conspiracy theorist on KS - sure the government have tweaked a few things but it’s your $ and you choose your provider.

[Curly]

This thread was started August 2015.
Dark Monday can’t be too far away?
Just shows, no one really knows the grizzly bears timing. Better to ride the storms and stay in the market. Peaks out number the troughs.

[ynot]

This thread was started August 2015.
Dark Monday can’t be too far away?
Just shows, no one really knows the grizzly bears timing. Better to ride the storms and stay in the market. Peaks out number the troughs.

Got to pick your storms Curly. The one that is about to hit the fan will best be avoided. In MHO.

[mike2020]

What is coming? Interest rates are hardly high by historical standards, oils heading south. Sure overly indebted house buyers will have to batten down the hatches but most companies seem to have set themselves up with low interest rate debt for the near future. Bring back some tourists and a few more migrant workers and nz should be ok.

[Aaron]

Too tempting not to find reasons to asset test and substitute as example.

National Super should already be income and asset tested IMO. No need to pay welfare to those not in need.

Yes we know you paid taxes all your life but national super is funded out of current taxation i.e. the younger generation who not only have tax deducted from their wages, but Kiwisaver as they save for their retirement as well as paying for the greedy generations retirement. Not only that they also have student loan deductions as tertiary education became too expensive after the last boomer graduated.

I predict the biggest change to Kiwisaver years from now will be to force people to take an annuity rather than lump sums.

To bring it back to the thread, not this Monday. Mike2020 may have hit the nail on the head.

[Rawz]

National Super should already be income and asset tested IMO. No need to pay welfare to those not in need.

Yes we know you paid taxes all your life but national super is funded out of current taxation i.e. the younger generation who not only have tax deducted from their wages, but Kiwisaver as they save for their retirement as well as paying for the greedy generations retirement. Not only that they also have student loan deductions as tertiary education became too expensive after the last boomer graduated.

I predict the biggest change to Kiwisaver years from now will be to force people to take an annuity rather than lump sums.

To bring it back to the thread, not this Monday. Mike2020 may have hit the nail on the head.

well said Aaron. The boomers had some of the easiest economic times, could buy a house with a few coins. Never saved enough for their retirement and now expect their kids to fund their super. Entitled much

[BlackPeter]

National Super should already be income and asset tested IMO. No need to pay welfare to those not in need.

...




well said Aaron. The boomers had some of the easiest economic times, could buy a house with a few coins. Never saved enough for their retirement and now expect their kids to fund their super. Entitled much

This sounds really sad ... I am wondering whether the two of you really had such a dark childhood grown up by such entitled and selfish boomer generation parents? Please accept my commisserations, though it sounds like your parents might have had a hard life as well.

And now you need to beat up the whole generation up for it?

It is not a new concept that parents provide for their children while they grow up ... and children support their parents in their old age. Is this changing? It sounds like at least some members of the younger generation happily accepted the support of their parents generation but now they believe that they don't need to give back?

Lets hope that the generation of your (or your peers) children does not remember your current attitude when its your turn to ask for support.

But anyway - while this easily might turn into a dark discussion about a black subject ... it probably does not belong into the Black Monday thread. A rational discussion about the contract between generations how to pay for both the rearing and education of children (we all need when we are old) and how to support the elderly (into which we all turn at some stage unless we die young) might deserve its own thread.

[Rawz]

good points BP. I had a very good upbringing. Couple of overseas holidays and never went without. The penny has finally dropped! I am complicit for the lack of central govt savings!! :ohmy:

[ynot]

This sounds really sad ... I am wondering whether the two of you really had such a dark childhood grown up by such entitled and selfish boomer generation parents? Please accept my commisserations, though it sounds like your parents might have had a hard life as well.

And now you need to beat up the whole generation up for it?

It is not a new concept that parents provide for their children while they grow up ... and children support their parents in their old age. Is this changing? It sounds like at least some members of the younger generation happily accepted the support of their parents generation but now they believe that they don't need to give back?

Lets hope that the generation of your (or your peers) children does not remember your current attitude when its your turn to ask for support.

But anyway - while this easily might turn into a dark discussion about a black subject ... it probably does not belong into the Black Monday thread. A rational discussion about the contract between generations how to pay for both the rearing and education of children (we all need when we are old) and how to support the elderly (into which we all turn at some stage unless we die young) might deserve its own thread.

Agree with you on this one BP.
Truth is my kids (aged mid life) have not been prepared to put in the long hard decades I put in to get ahead. That is their choice.
I Know my comment does not go down well with them or their peers but that is how it looks from my perspective.
My thinking is if you want something bad enough you will figure out how to make it happen.

[bull....]

down day to start the week for US markets , not surprising considering what's happening in china and the average retail sales figures , although they were much better than poor old NZ's dreadful retail figure's.

[alokdhir]

Big rebalancing day tmrw ...shud see some unexpected moves and super high vols ...EBO maybe in limelight !!

[Entrep]

It is not a new concept that parents provide for their children while they grow up ... and children support their parents in their old age. Is this changing? It sounds like at least some members of the younger generation happily accepted the support of their parents generation but now they believe that they don't need to give back?

That's within a family silo. Those other posters are referring essentially to the entire country paying for an entire generation en masse.

However, I also agree that young people seem to spend much more on non-essentials these days.

Eg, growing up, all meals were cooked at home, meeting for coffee, breakfast, lunch, dinner etc with other families just didn't happen.

Now, with a family myself, we do it all the time and eat out many nights, and I see people much younger than me doing the same thing.

I guess a large part of it, is that society simply produces more "stuff" to sell to people, and advertising is far more prevalent too (eg internet, social media, etc). Everything people see on their phone is marketing, including all the fake influencers they tragically follow. Before, the only time you saw ads was on TV or listening to the radio. It feels like it would take an additional level of discipline on a young savers part to avoid what everyone else (including their friends) are doing.

[Bjauck]

good points BP. I had a very good upbringing. Couple of overseas holidays and never went without. The penny has finally dropped! I am complicit for the lack of central govt savings!! :ohmy:
Yep. Government policies (supported by voters of course) have resulted in lack of investment for the provision of state and indeed private superannuation schemes, the weak KiwiSaver notwithstanding. Instead we have very expensive housing, which now results in the younger generation struggling to own family sized homes. So NZ is great for older kiwis but is no longer the great place for average folk to raise a young family?

[Getty]

My thinking is if you want something bad enough you will figure out how to make it happen.

Yes.
I overcome that challenge with my lady every night.

[Balance]

Another day, another disaster for crypto dummies.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/blockfi-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy/news-story/801e5aeeabce73481bfede82df0babb8

Markets getting towards inflection point with each foreseeable loss from crypto dummies.

[Entrep]

Another day, another disaster for crypto dummies.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/blockfi-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy/news-story/801e5aeeabce73481bfede82df0babb8

Markets getting towards inflection point with each foreseeable loss from crypto dummies.

I'd say the dummies are the ones who didn't see this coming when Blockfi stopped withdrawals several weeks ago, particularly in light of FTX etc. Are you one of those?

Otherwise, stop recycling news to fit your narrative.

[Balance]

I'd say the dummies are the ones who didn't see this coming when Blockfi stopped withdrawals several weeks ago, particularly in light of FTX etc. Are you one of those?

Otherwise, stop recycling news to fit your narrative.

Chill, Entrep.

Why are you so worked up about crypto dummies getting smashed? No less than Warren Buffett warned that it was inevitable.

Ponzi schemes all come to their natural conclusion - a few getting obscenely rich & the dummies all end up with losses. No surprises there.

Just make sure you are not one of the dummies.

[LEMON]

Chill, Entrep.

Why are you so worked up about crypto dummies getting smashed? No less than Warren Buffett warned that it was inevitable.

Ponzi schemes all come to their natural conclusion - a few get obscenely rich & the dummies all end up with losses. No surprises there.

Just make sure you are not one of the dummies.

Yes Fiat Ponzi

A few get obscenely rich & the dummies all end up with over-leveraged homes and consume for pleasure due to the feeling of lacking in life, spending their spare time on the internet looking to vent. No surprise there

Fiat Ponzi

[LEMON]

Suck on your bitcoins lemon, yak yak yak yeah yeah balance, yawn

[BlackPeter]

Suck on your bitcoins lemon, yak yak yak yeah yeah balance, yawn

Are you ok?

[LEMON]

Don't forget either balance the crypto space is not bitcoin, it is just an arm of the fiat-minded Ponzi called "Venture capital" that lure in those chasing higher returns to escape the 9-5 and overleveraged lifestyles, or the debt spiral caused by their fiat Ponzi masters who collapse their fiat Ponzi currency, calling it "crypto" "blockchain" and "metaverse" all a part of the fiat Ponzi

[LEMON]

Are you ok?

How's your nuclear bunker coming along grandpa? Still worried the Indians will attack New Zealand to escape their over polluted. bunkers, fiat Ponzi media scaremongering lol

[Balance]

Are you ok?

He is delirious from sucking on too many crypto lemons?

[LEMON]

He is delirious from sucking on too many crypto lemons?

I'm only messing with you balance, you know we are all in the fiat Ponzi together, your problem with crypto is funny because its just part of the fiat Ponzi, yet you still blame "crypto" and miss the whole picture

[Entrep]

Chill, Entrep.

Why are you so worked up about crypto dummies getting smashed? No less than Warren Buffett warned that it was inevitable.

Because if I wanted to ignore this community's uneducated takes on crypto I have been able to just ignore the crypto forum, now I need to see it here in the NZX forum though.


When asked why he didn't invest in technology stocks, Warren Buffett famously replied that he didn't invest in companies he didn't understand.

Need I say more re Buffet.

[bull....]

ANZ the first bank to raise floating mortgage rates following last week's OCR hike. They are passing through less than the full +75 bps to floating rate borrowers, but all of it to their bonus saver account. Term deposit savers get less

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118562/anz-first-bank-raise-floating-mortgage-rates-following-last-weeks-ocr-hike

5% 1yr term deposit :scared: whole lot of nz stocks just got less competitive

[Poet]

ANZ the first bank to raise floating mortgage rates following last week's OCR hike. They are passing through less than the full +75 bps to floating rate borrowers, but all of it to their bonus saver account. Term deposit savers get less

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118562/anz-first-bank-raise-floating-mortgage-rates-following-last-weeks-ocr-hike

5% 1yr term deposit :scared: whole lot of nz stocks just got less competitive

You've got to wonder what they are going to do with that money that they are borrowing at 5% - sure as hell there are going to be limited opportunities to lend it at 8%

[Balance]

Because if I wanted to ignore this community's uneducated takes on crypto I have been able to just ignore the crypto forum, now I need to see it here in the NZX forum though.



Need I say more re Buffet.

You have a lot to learn, Entrep.

Start with understanding why Buffett did not invest in technology stocks and how he triumphed subsequently when the first ‘technology/internet’ boom went bust.

Then you can quote him with authority rather than use the quote to do yourself in - as crypto dummies have.

https://fs.blog/temperament-matters/

[Entrep]

You have a lot to learn, Entrep.

Start with understanding why Buffett did not invest in technology stocks and how he triumphed subsequently when the first ‘technology/internet’ boom went bust.

https://fs.blog/temperament-matters/

I get that, he called the tech crash. Great. It's like you're equating everyone into crypto with Scam Bankrun-Fraud, 3AC, FTX and other crypto bros/scammers.

Many companies rightly went bust in the tech crash, some survived and have since changed the world. FTX, and some other crypto companies that offered unsustainable yields, went bust this time around. Has any network gone down? No. Can I still send $100 instantly to anyone, anywhere in the world? Yes. This is not the end of crypto, just like the other 9,000 times weren't.

I think anyone that writes crypto off simply based on their own experience, a friend getting scammed, or FTX going bankrupt (heard of Lehman Bros?) is doing themselves a serious dis-service. There are many intelligent people in the space that you can learn from.

Anyway, I'd much rather not discuss crypto in this NZX forum.

[JBmurc]

Great comment from "Jeff Currie" I just heard on CNBC ..... revenge of the old economy ...has happen from the 60's 70's 90's 2000s

Higher Inflation = higher interest rates - shorter duration investment like resources - industries LOW PE do very well



LOW Inflation....excess cheaper resources... Lower rates longer duration investments like TECH high PE ... do well DOT com / Faangs /Cryptos



Next 5 to 10yrs Old Economy will do very well with HUGE CAPEX demands

[Bobdn]

Yes he been saying this for a good amount of time, a year or two at least. When Exxon was about $40 a share ;)

I guess theres still some revenge left but how much, who knows. I still can't not have something on the other side of my Australian resource heavy portfolio. So I'm ok holding the S&P500 forever or when I need to get my knees or hip done privately.

[JBmurc]

Yes he been saying this for a good amount of time, a year or two at least. When Exxon was about $40 a share ;)

I guess theres still some revenge left but how much, who knows. I still can't not have something on the other side of my Australian resource heavy portfolio. So I'm ok holding the S&P500 forever or when I need to get my knees or hip done privately.

Yes and he's been correct and I don't see that changing for the rest of this decade...

[bull....]

US markets still tracking as expected ... sideways at the moment. longer term patterns still maintained and on track to play out next yr

[alokdhir]

US markets still tracking as expected ... sideways at the moment. longer term patterns still maintained and on track to play out next yr

Friday and 11th Dec then last Fed meeting will set the tone mate ...market waiting for final confirmation that Inflation topped and looking for more signs of slowdown

Where as all leading indicators are pointing towards slowdown ....US 10Y is also showing market consensus towards big slowdown ahead ...

I am sure U have your own judgment about record inversion of yield curve :p

[bull....]

Business confidence dives - close to GFC lows
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/business-confidence-dives-close-to-gfc-lows/XMDDLO3K4ZCVNB2GGCNV35J7GQ/

[winner69]

Business confidence dives - close to GFC lows
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/business-confidence-dives-close-to-gfc-lows/XMDDLO3K4ZCVNB2GGCNV35J7GQ/


Westpac guy says the gloom is setting in.

Quote. Confidence among New Zealand businesses fell sharply in November, with a net 57% of businesses now feeling pessimistic about the economic landscape. That’s a sizeable drop from what were already low levels.

[causecelebre]

US job openings down to 1.7 per worker. Realestate sales continue slowing. J Powell a little more dovish with possible 50 bps rate increase in December.

[bull....]

powell's speech still happening has put a rocket under the market

[winner69]

powell's speech still happening has put a rocket under the market

Cool ….FPH 25 bucks today

[alokdhir]

Cool ….FPH 25 bucks today

Hopefully U managed to get some close to $ 18 bucks or kept waiting for low teens ? Knowing u ...u got some surely , shud have rung the bell too to help your ardent followers ...lol :p

[alokdhir]

powell's speech still happening has put a rocket under the market

In Feb our Mr Orr will be singing the same tune ...just wait for it ...His engineering a recession talk is for 3 months break medicine only

[bull....]

Cool ….FPH 25 bucks today

still see a bit of a rally left in the nz market so you might get lucky

[winner69]

Hopefully U managed to get some close to $ 18 bucks or kept waiting for low teens ? Knowing u ...u got some surely , shud have rung the bell too to help your ardent followers ...lol :p

Shame is that FPH not really worth $25 plus but as long as the market still thinks so whose complaining…it’s all about sentiment eh …..warm fuzzies at the moment

[bull....]

In Feb our Mr Orr will be singing the same tune ...just wait for it ...His engineering a recession talk is for 3 months break medicine only

actually powell didnt change his tune , maybe market liked him saying moderation in hikes to come ?

guess you wont like wilson accessment of what's to come ( his call's been spot on last yr odd )

‘Wild ride’: Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson predicts double-digit percentage drop will hit stocks in early 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/double-digit-percentage-drop-will-hit-stocks-in-2023-morgan-stanley.html

[alokdhir]

Shame is that FPH not really worth $25 plus but as long as the market still thinks so whose complaining…it’s all about sentiment eh …..warm fuzzies at the moment

IMO we are not well equiped to decide true valuations of stocks like FPH ...so I dont even try anymore ...gut feeling agrees with u but Mr Market is always the supreme boss ...yes no complaints ...if u cant beat them then join them is my new found wisdom :D

[Bobdn]

https://youtu.be/coojkg6eaS8

DOW has just flipped into a bull market, according to Bloomberg.

Market timing is hard!

All the Smartshares went XD on 29 November. Within 48 hours, most prices have fully recovered. Don't you love it when that happens?

[BlackPeter]

https://youtu.be/coojkg6eaS8

DOW has just flipped into a bull market, according to Bloomberg.

Market timing is hard!

All the Smartshares went XD on 29 November. Within 48 hours, most prices have fully recovered. Don't you love it when that happens?

All good - except you are a shorter :):

Just shows again that nobody can predict future stock prices ...

[alokdhir]

Many commentators are talking of disconnect between Bond markets vs Stock Markets ....as long dated bonds are suggesting recession soon and deep while stocks are doing alright at the moment ...maybe Santa affect or maybe stock markets wiser and dont expect companies to do that badly ...what ever little slowdown will happen due to higher rates working ...may end up helping well managed companies with strong balance sheets without much debt .

Only time will answer that question with certainty ...New lows in early 2023 as most bears are predicting ?? Me is not with them ...we all surely will find out

[winner69]

Germany being kicked out of World Cup could upset the markets.

Seems bad times in Germany …..heard consumers not buying much and even the big sales were a flop

And then many are chopping down their trees to keep the fire going so they can keep warm over winter because energy costs are so high……bugger the pollution and emissions they say

Possibly a few miserable Germans these days

and Belgians maybe

[BlackPeter]

Germany being kicked out of World Cup could upset the markets.

Seems bad times in Germany …..heard consumers not buying much and even the big sales were a flop

And then many are chopping down their trees to keep the fire going so they can keep warm over winter because energy costs are so high……bugger the pollution and emissions they say

Possibly a few miserable Germans these days

and Belgians maybe

Funny thing is - my German portfolio is doing these days ways better than my NZ portfolio. Most companies which matter are really creaming it.

I guess the Germans do know what's important :) , but hey, they did win the game as well, didn't they?

[Bjauck]

Germany being kicked out of World Cup could upset the markets.

Seems bad times in Germany …..heard consumers not buying much and even the big sales were a flop

And then many are chopping down their trees to keep the fire going so they can keep warm over winter because energy costs are so high……bugger the pollution and emissions they say

Possibly a few miserable Germans these days

and Belgians maybe Maybe the energy crisis will encourage many owners in Europe to revamp their double glazing and insulation. So longer term environmental benefits may result. Armaments industry may get a fillip if German tanks are eventually exported to help Ukraine’s struggle against its invaders.

[winner69]

Stocks initially plummeted on news more people are employed.....but then realised that's not bad news and recovered nicely

[alokdhir]

Soon next years Broker's Picks will be announced ...around 17th December . Then market will become interesting again as that gets lots of local retail interest

So far all Brokers are in red on last years picks ....FB , Jarden and Craigs !!!

Waiting eagerly to see their this year picks ...expecting many large caps like FPH / MFT / SUM etc

[Ricky-bobby]

Soon next years Broker's Picks will be announced ...around 17th December . Then market will become interesting again as that gets lots of local retail interest

So far all Brokers are in red on last years picks ....FB , Jarden and Craigs !!!

Waiting eagerly to see their this year picks ...expecting many large caps like FPH / MFT / SUM etc

When does the year roll Alokdhir?… I wonder if they try and give things a wee pump before the list finishes?!

[bull....]

non farm payroll's friday probably cemented at least a 50 hike in the coming fed meeting

Payrolls and wages blow past expectations, flying in the face of Fed rate hikes
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/jobs-report-november-2022.html