Black Monday

[alokdhir]

If after tomorrow's US CPI data markets dont break 3600 then something positive in short term ahead ...Its holding 3600 only hoping CPI data will be helpful .

If that doesn't happen then we can go another big leg down starting tomorrow

[bull....]

UK announcement just shattered your 3600 ... saying pension funds on there own shortly. just tanked market. guess some funds will go bust soon ?

larry summers just out as well saying pain now is better than more pain later

[Panda-NZ-]

Jamie Dimon says the UK government deserves benefit of the doubt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/jpmorgan-ceo-says-uk-government-deserves-benefit-of-the-doubt.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/jpmorgan-ceo-says-uk-government-deserves-benefit-of-the-doubt.html)

Translation: Thanks for uncapping banker's bonuses.

Though with a workforce nearly as old as he is there won't be much "growthe" on the cards. They will have a growth in their debt though .

[alokdhir]

Many are also saying. " Having a working Financial Markets is better then broken ones like 2007-09 " ....So soon sanity will prevail .

BoE gave up as it cannot fight FED ....But FED can save bond markets thus overall financial system from decimated ...as we all know once the contagion starts then its automatic end into disaster

[bull....]

RBNZ still doing QE with there FLP cause probably robinson told orr keep the money flowing lol
I think they going to cause a panic next yr in NZ when it ends december as mtge rates will skyrocket next yr tanking property market and destroying nz

nz be uk2

and govt just announced yesterday they are going to destroy beef and sheep farmers so there goes some of nz gdp ahead with no corresponding increase in any other element of gdp to offset it.
lol govt brilliant .... at destroying nz

[winner69]

In US profits are already starting to decelerate after the post-pandemic period of exceptionally strong earnings growth.

In plain language earnings are declining

[Panda-NZ-]

In plain language earnings are declining

..at a time when they need to be increasing to make up for higher rates.

[winner69]

Professor Damodaran isca good guy ….finance maestro

He reckons if earnings come in 30% below expectations and risk free rate reaches 6% and the Equity Risk Premium is 6% than the value of the S&P500 is 2443

Earnings 15% below expectations S&P5000 value is 2672

[bull....]

Professor Damodaran isca good guy ….finance maestro

He reckons if earnings come in 30% below expectations and risk free rate reaches 6% and the Equity Risk Premium is 6% than the value of the S&P500 is 2443

Earnings 15% below expectations S&P5000 value is 2672

sounds about right ... we will know next yr how earnings will play out. would match the 50% odd falls dotcom / gfc and not out of norm for a bad bear

So would that mean nz50 fall to around 8000 ? be some nice long term bargains if that happens :t_up:

we could all aim to be in the 1% rich of nz only need 8 million ... geez we are a poor country

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300709738/heres-what-you-need-to-be-in-new-zealands-top-1

[SailorRob]

sounds about right ... we will know next yr how earnings will play out. would match the 50% odd falls dotcom / gfc and not out of norm for a bad bear

So would that mean nz50 fall to around 8000 ? be some nice long term bargains if that happens :t_up:

we could all aim to be in the 1% rich of nz only need 8 million ... geez we are a poor country

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300709738/heres-what-you-need-to-be-in-new-zealands-top-1


Fall from 4368 to 8000? Isn't that a rise?

[Gerald]

Fall from 4368 to 8000? Isn't that a rise?

NZ50G not capital index

[SailorRob]

NZ50G not capital index


Exactly...

[SailorRob]

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/2q-2022-gmo-quarterly-letter/

Damn they reckon NZD still 13% overvalued.

[winner69]

JP Morgan Chase CEO says don't be surprised if SP500 losses another 20%

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/jpmorgan-chief-s-nightmare-sharemarket-prediction-is-far-from-impossible-20221012-p5bp1b.html

[bull....]

nz 10yr over 4.5% on the way to 5%?

by the way if it gets to 5% would that have bonds being issued over 7%?

that make most of the nz50 stocks at current prices unable to compete on a yield basis

timber

[alokdhir]

nz 10yr over 4.5% on the way to 5%?

by the way if it gets to 5% would that have bonds being issued over 7%?

that make most of the nz50 stocks at current prices unable to compete on a yield basis

timber

U both have your way ...NZX 50 G will become 0 only ...lol ...really like your enthusiasm mate ....

Get ready to see big rally sooner then u think ...hahaha

[alokdhir]

Time to start discussing which stocks will be best picks in panic ....if that happens ...Need be prepared

[bull....]

U both have your way ...NZX 50 G will become 0 only ...lol ...really like your enthusiasm mate ....

Get ready to see big rally sooner then u think ...hahaha

haha yes i am really excited one day stocks will be back to sensible levels.
Have to remember they were juiced to the max on money printing with the most stupid valuations

[Rawz]

haha yes i am really excited one day stocks will be back to sensible levels.
Have to remember they were juiced to the max on money printing with the most stupid valuations
so the only ones still holding stocks now are probably crack addicts in my opinion still hoping for the next fix by central banks

Only ones still holding sotcks are crack addicts? isnt the global share market like $100 trillion. people hold those shares, lots and lots of people (or crack addicts?)

[blackcap]

haha yes i am really excited one day stocks will be back to sensible levels.
Have to remember they were juiced to the max on money printing with the most stupid valuations
so the only ones still holding stocks now are probably crack addicts in my opinion still hoping for the next fix by central banks

Then what do you hold in these inflationary times? Cash invested at 4-5% (2.5-4% after tax) will erode even more quickly with inflation at 8%.

[bull....]

Then what do you hold in these inflationary times? Cash invested at 4-5% (2.5-4% after tax) will erode even more quickly with inflation at 8%.

as ive said on here many times us dollar till it doesnt work ( probably late in that game now )

sorry if i offended anyone about being a crack addict i have deleted it

[alokdhir]

haha yes i am really excited one day stocks will be back to sensible levels.
Have to remember they were juiced to the max on money printing with the most stupid valuations

Didnt we hear all those reasons and many more when Covid low was made recently ...lets forget about earlier times as dont want to tax your thoughts too much

Every time market cracked we all had good reasons to think thats the end of the world ...until it doesn't happen ...

Only think certain in this world is holding on to your stocks forever works better then running to the hills every time something bad happens to financial markets

Did u notice that RBNZ raised rates on 5th Oct ....Only two banks so far have adjusted their FLOATING RATES upwards that too taking effect from 26th Oct ...shows what ....real reluctance of the banks to raise rates as they dont want to FINISH their own businesses

[stoploss]

Didnt we hear all those reasons and many more when Covid low was made recently ...lets forget about earlier times as dont want to tax your thoughts too much

Every time market cracked we all had good reasons to think thats the end of the world ...until it doesn't happen ...

Only think certain in this world is holding on to your stocks forever works better then running to the hills every time something bad happens to financial markets

Did u notice that RBNZ raised rates on 5th Oct ....Only two banks so far have adjusted their FLOATING RATES upwards that too taking effect from 26th Oct ...shows what ....real reluctance of the banks to raise rates as they dont want to FINISH their own businesses

All 4 of the major banks have either increased or said they will.....
https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing

[alokdhir]

All 4 of the major banks have either increased or said they will.....
https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/117966/most-banks-have-been-slow-respond-october-5-rbnz-50-bps-hike-ocr-they-are

[bull....]

Didnt we hear all those reasons and many more when Covid low was made recently ...lets forget about earlier times as dont want to tax your thoughts too much

Every time market cracked we all had good reasons to think thats the end of the world ...until it doesn't happen ...

Only think certain in this world is holding on to your stocks forever works better then running to the hills every time something bad happens to financial markets

Did u notice that RBNZ raised rates on 5th Oct ....Only two banks so far have adjusted their FLOATING RATES upwards that too taking effect from 26th Oct ...shows what ....real reluctance of the banks to raise rates as they dont want to FINISH their own businesses

lol that works well if you brought at very low prices not for people buying now.
i dont think banks will have a choice about raising rates higher once flp finishes , there margins too small without it. maybe orr will extend it ?

[alokdhir]

Bond Markets are giving clear signals to all Central Banks and Highly deficit Governments that at current rates they are not sustainable ...No one wants AAA bonds as they are not workable anymore ....How will countries support their debt with more debt at even higher rates ? Who wants to buy that debt which is becoming like Junk bonds day by day ....

Its not equity rout its a Bond Market rout which will lead to much bigger trouble then just collateral damage to equity markets

Central Banks to reign in private spending by taking money out of wallets of mums and dads but who will take the spending powers of money throwing Govts ?? As they are equally if not more responsible for this spiralling inflation world over ....Cost of living payments ( Helicopter Money ) is just one example of Govt having no control over spendings but wants mums and dads to do austerity ....

[SailorRob]

lol that works well if you brought at very low prices not for people buying now.
i dont think banks will have a choice about raising rates higher once flp finishes , there margins too small without it. maybe orr will extend it ?


I think the term is 'Bought'

[alokdhir]

US CPI data out ...mixed bag ....FOMC minutes out ...hawkish as expected .

Markets hardly moved ...nor up neither down ...Calm before the storm ?

200 WSMA holding ....this break will bring big leg down ....all ready and waiting but not happening so far !! Will it or opposite will happen first?

[bull....]

just wake up too very quiet because market waiting for more important cpi tomorrow morning

did you notice utilities in US are down nearly 3% when everything else is flat

and yellen says she dont mind a strong us dollar

[alokdhir]

just wake up too very quiet because market waiting for more important cpi tomorrow morning

did you notice utilities in US are down nearly 3% when everything else is flat

and yellen says she dont mind a strong us dollar

Agree todays was just PPI ...actual CPI is tomorrow ...so maybe real action is soon ...more wait ...

Yes I noted long time back that yield stocks ie utilities etc are loosing shine ...as market is in the process of changing the future theme to growth stocks ....I had mentioned that sometime back ...need to be ahead of the market so now is the time to switch to growth and dump yield

[winner69]

NZ CPI out next week

Annual number expected to be slightly lower than the 7.3% last reported

Thats good

[bull....]

Food price increase still running at 13-year high

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300711522/food-price-increase-still-running-at-13year-high-but-is-relief-coming

see at the supermarket for sure , fresh food becoming very expensive.
next yr be worse many say

[mike2020]

Some of that is supply and demand, terrible weather this spring to date. If we get a long, hot and dry summer like the Northern Hemisphere it won't help much. We are big on fresh fruit and veg, go to markets a lot, and I have noticed it more in the last 4 weeks.

[Panda-NZ-]

Plant a fruit tree.. free organic food every year by the bucketload.

[Jaa]

Plant a fruit tree.. free organic food every year by the bucketload.

Hard to grow two minute noodles...


Increasing prices for yoghurt, two-minute noodles, and tomato-based pasta sauce were the largest drivers within grocery food

[Panda-NZ-]

Use the savings to buy some noodles, then.

[Bobdn]

Girls, I'm watching Bloomberg TV in my hotel...it's a US inflation **** show. Thank God I've paid my next months accomodation in advance. NZD is dropping dramatically.

[bull....]

Girls, I'm watching Bloomberg TV in my hotel...it's a US inflation **** show. Thank God I've paid my next months accomodation in advance. NZD is dropping dramatically.

inflation hot alright , the rally today looks like one of those ppt days otherwise i reckon market be down 5%. anyway still plenty of time to resume the slide.
focus will turn to mid terms now

[alokdhir]

3600 has been regained and even trading over important 3660 Bull short term pivot ...lets hope it lasts

If Bulls can hold 3600 for some more days then we have hope of a decent rally ahead but our Bull is not with us ...he is looking for 5% down

Is today's rally a aberration for relaxing the tension around breakdown of important SP500 level ...Bull Trap ? Our Bull will never change sides ...he is firmly with Bears :p

[Ricky-bobby]

Iv been buying a few over the last few days, mainly due to impatience! Have noticed that the buy side has got healthy number of bids (except TRA!). Be interesting to see what happens tonight in the US… have seen this pattern before when inflation data info is released, things go up, then dive. It’s interesting times alright!

[Aaron]

inflation hot alright , the rally today looks like one of those ppt days otherwise i reckon market be down 5%. anyway still plenty of time to resume the slide.
focus will turn to mid terms now

What is a ppt day? Pardon my ignorance.

I always come to this thread to see why the market did what it did overnight.

I would have thought a high CPI means a longer wait for a Fed pivot so markets would go down?

[Rawz]

What is a ppt day? Pardon my ignorance.

I always come to this thread to see why the market did what it did overnight.

I would have thought a high CPI means a longer wait for a Fed pivot so markets would go down?
That’s what I was thinking.. the market aye.. completely irrational lol

[gbogo]

PPT = Plunge Protection Team. mythical secret buyer in USA used to explain why bottoms occur.

[Oberon]

Woah - that 800+ DOW had my eyes bulging this morning.

But I suppose ... 75pt hike in November already baked in - though these things tend to get "baked in" several times ... highly attractive R:R after the flash dump post-CPI release. Shorts - vindicated by another surprise in the CPI - would have freaked the downside move was reversing and forced to cover, only adding to the buying pressure - and there were a LOT of offside shorts. All in all, bit of a domino effect that on the surface looks completely irrational.

Just another bear market rally; bottom isn't in IMO. Once we hit new lows and the market is unresponsive to even good news, then perhaps.

[SailorRob]

Woah - that 800+ DOW had my eyes bulging this morning.

But I suppose ... 75pt hike in November already baked in - though these things tend to get "baked in" several times ... highly attractive R:R after the flash dump post-CPI release. Shorts - vindicated by another surprise in the CPI - would have freaked the downside move was reversing and forced to cover, only adding to the buying pressure - and there were a LOT of offside shorts. All in all, bit of a domino effect that on the surface looks completely irrational.

Just another bear market rally; bottom isn't in IMO. Once we hit new lows and the market is unresponsive to even good news, then perhaps.


Unfortunately your opinion means nothing - otherwise you'd be on the Fortune 400 list.

Assuming you aren't.

[alokdhir]

We expect a 1.5% quarterly increase in Q3 headline CPI, with annual inflation falling to 6.5%. The future is still highly uncertain, but the inflation outlook is looking considerably less dire than it did a few months ago.



•

Sharply lower global shipping costs flag the risk of a swift deceleration in tradable CPI inflation. Our expectation is that housing group inflation will likely soon peak, if it has not done so already. However, core inflation should remain elevated for a while yet.



•

Inflation remains much too high for the RBNZ’s comfort and increasingly restrictive OCR settings are required.

[Entrep]

Unfortunately your opinion means nothing - otherwise you'd be on the Fortune 400 list.

Assuming you aren't.

What's your point? The same can be said for every single post on this forum.

[dabsman]

Unfortunately your opinion means nothing - otherwise you'd be on the Fortune 400 list.

Assuming you aren't.

I'm on the Fortune 4B list. Surely I'm in the richest 4B? Hope so :eek2:

[SailorRob]

What's your point? The same can be said for every single post on this forum.


Specifically to market timing or 'the bottom is not in' comments. Not opinions in general.

No person in the world knows if the bottom is in or not and expressing opinion is irrelevant.

Generally having opinions that turn out correct won't grant you a position on the Fortune 400 but having market timing opinions are will.

[Aaron]

Unfortunately your opinion means nothing - otherwise you'd be on the Fortune 400 list.

Assuming you aren't.

So our opinions only matter once we are in the Fortune 400?

Do you have an opinion or are you a believer in the efficient market hypothesis. Drip feeding into index funds? Time in the market etc etc?

I agree no one knows when the market bottom is in not even the people in the fortune 400.

What is wrong with having a guess this is the "Share Trader" site not the "Long Term Investor" site.

[percy]

Bit of humour,

https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-zoouy-yupddjlly-x/

[SailorRob]

So our opinions only matter once we are in the Fortune 400?

Do you have an opinion or are you a believer in the efficient market hypothesis. Drip feeding into index funds? Time in the market etc etc?

I agree no one knows when the market bottom is in not even the people in the fortune 400.

What is wrong with having a guess this is the "Share Trader" site not the "Long Term Investor" site.


Absolutely not, your opinions on what the market does in the short or medium don't matter whether in the Fortune 400 or not. Unless you get there from market timing. You'd be the first person in the world and then your opinion would not only matter it would move markets.

I have no opinion whatsoever on what 'the market' will do over any time period. Could easily be lower than today in 15 years. The bottom could be in or could be 30% lower. Nobody knows. Hopefully nobody cares as we are not investing in 'the market'.

That does not mean I am a believer in efficient market hypothesis, only a total moron would believe such nonsense. Believing that you can't time the market or pick a bottom and believing in efficient markets - they are two very different things.

I have strong opinions about individual businesses and their future prospects compared to what's implied by their current prices - which are often set by those folk who have opinions on the bottom being in or not or trading off 12 screens. Without these people I'd be screwed as the market would be more efficient.

I also occasionally have strong opinions about entire sectors and combined with opinions on individual companies I sometimes swing for the fences. This is why I put a significant portion of my net worth into Occidental Petroleum warrants just under $3 and another significant portion into select other Oil/Gas companies when the WTI contract went negative. All was recorded at the time here on Sharetrader. What I will not claim though is that I saw the current situation developing. I merely thought I'd do well over the next 3 to 5 years. I also held firm while my hero Mr. Buffett sold everything.

I have never purchased an index fund and hopefully never will. I run a pretty concentrated portfolio with 50% of my entire net worth invested in 3 companies, and 100% invested in common stocks.

Time in the market. Absolutely. The rest of my life.

What's wrong with a guess, a speculation? Nothing. As long as it is specified as such. And as long as you know you will never have long term success acting on those guesses. Too many people here actually believe that they have a edge predicting these things and my point is to highlight to other interested parties that this is rubbish and not the way to behave. As once upon a time I would also have believed them.

You raise a good point regarding the name of the site.

[Bobdn]

Wow, SailorRob, 50 per cent of networth in three stocks is courageous. One of those is Berkshire if I recall correctly? So at least that's a highly diversified company.

Been there and done that but took it to extremes. It was the best of times and the worst of times. Stupidly I had 40 per cent of networth in Chorus and I lost a ton (on paper), and then I made a ton (when the Commerce Commission reversed it's decision) and then I headed for the hills and never put myself in that situation again.

I love index funds/ETFs. Very few actual index funds in NZ. USF.nzx is up 75 per cent in the last 5 years ie the number of years I've been retired. Good enough for me, and keeps the G&Ts flowing, at least at this stage. There must be another lost decade sooner or later, it won't always be as good as this.

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-not-qe-or-qt-this-is-none-of-those-why-the-u-s-treasury-is-exploring-debt-buybacks-11665775104?mod=mw_latestnews

Proposals like these show Bosses getting very worried about Bond market stability ....big moves up and down is showing market is scared and doesn't have a clue ...very easy to lead to panic thus collapse .

Bond market is back bone of government finances world over ...they just cant afford it to crash or go full on panic ...how will they finance helicopter rides etc

[alokdhir]

Bulls trying desperately to hold on to S&P500's 3600 handle ....seems like its ready to go and then big leg down as more sellers then buyers ...

Bull's 3300 beckons ....:scared:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-rare-s-p-500s-violent-reversal-was-after-thursdays-inflation-report-and-what-history-shows-may-come-next-according-to-bespoke-11665763623?mod=home-page (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-rare-s-p-500s-violent-reversal-was-after-thursdays-inflation-report-and-what-history-shows-may-come-next-according-to-bespoke-11665763623?mod=home-page)

[winner69]

Bulls trying desperately to hold on to S&P500's 3600 handle ....seems like its ready to go and then big leg down as more sellers then buyers ...

Bull's 3300 beckons ....:scared:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-rare-s-p-500s-violent-reversal-was-after-thursdays-inflation-report-and-what-history-shows-may-come-next-according-to-bespoke-11665763623?mod=home-page (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-rare-s-p-500s-violent-reversal-was-after-thursdays-inflation-report-and-what-history-shows-may-come-next-according-to-bespoke-11665763623?mod=home-page)

Is 3300 a pause stage on way to 2800?

[SailorRob]

Wow, SailorRob, 50 per cent of networth in three stocks is courageous. One of those is Berkshire if I recall correctly? So at least that's a highly diversified company.

Been there and done that but took it to extremes. It was the best of times and the worst of times. Stupidly I had 40 per cent of networth in Chorus and I lost a ton (on paper), and then I made a ton (when the Commerce Commission reversed it's decision) and then I headed for the hills and never put myself in that situation again.

I love index funds/ETFs. Very few actual index funds in NZ. USF.nzx is up 75 per cent in the last 5 years ie the number of years I've been retired. Good enough for me, and keeps the G&Ts flowing, at least at this stage. There must be another lost decade sooner or later, it won't always be as good as this.


Yes that's correct, Berkshire is well over 20%. The other is Markel which is a Berkshire styled company. Interestingly Berkshire is about 12% of Markel's stock portfolio and Berkshire just bought Markel in their portfolio earlier this year.

Honestly for me, I would need to find courage to not own these companies (2 of them) in these proportions! No courage required. As you have alluded to, in fact two of these three stocks actually represent hundreds of individual companies.

What has required courage is holding the other one, Occidental Petroleum, which despite my often selling down it has grown to be such a large position. Once Buffett started buying it up BIG (owns over 20% of the company) I decided that I would not sell another share.

So interesting the internal linkages between my top 3 holdings, Berkshire owns Markel and Occidental and Markel owns Berkshire and Occidental borrowed money from Berkshire to buy Anadarko.

It can always be as good as this, but yes if you own broad ETF's then there may well be a lost decade. I urge you to look at Berkshire as an alternative to the ETF's.

[alokdhir]

Is 3300 a pause stage on way to 2800?

My apologies I forgot to mention your desired level ...surely 2800 also possible why not ? Markets do please all at some point or another ...why just Bull ...it will please W69 too ...also next year when HGH is 2.40 then also it will be pleasing many ...different strokes for different times

[Gerald]

It can always be as good as this, but yes if you own broad ETF's then there may well be a lost decade. I urge you to look at Berkshire as an alternative to the ETF's.

Seems somewhat counterproductive? Buffett himself has said at a large size brk's returns won't be able to beat the index much or at all over time. He will be off in a few years and those left running the show don't seem to have proven the ability to generate excess returns even with small pools of money (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-stock-managers-weschler-and-combs-have-trailed-the-sp-500.html).

[SailorRob]

Seems somewhat counterproductive? Buffett himself has said at a large size brk's returns won't be able to beat the index much or at all over time. He will be off in a few years and those left running the show don't seem to have proven the ability to generate excess returns even with small pools of money (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-stock-managers-weschler-and-combs-have-trailed-the-sp-500.html).


No, a few major things you're missing.

Buffett has always under promised and overdelivered. Berkshire is not a just a common stock portfolio. Berkshire has totally destroyed the SP500 over any time period but what many see is the stock price which is a totally different thing. The underlying business has massively outperformed even over the last decade. But in terms of the voting machine, the SP500 has had more votes at times and is now drastically more expensive despite underperformance.

See this short write up for more information and the outperformance has continued since. https://www.vltavafund.com/analyzy/brkindex

I have much more extensive analysis that I have done which I can send anyone interested

Remember Berkshire has destroyed the indexes while holding a huge portion of equity capital in cash as well.

Your article is from 2019 and yes there will be long periods where Ted Todd and Buffett equity portfolios underperform the market but what you're missing is that Ted Weschler turned $70,000 into 240 million in under 30 years with no added capital. This is a CAGR of 32% for 30 years. The other fellow is as good as well.

Do you consider that to be proven ability to generate excess returns with small pools of money??

It's extremely difficult for me to imagine a scenario where Berkshire doesn't compound at 10 to 14% CAGR over the next decade and the SP500 might do low single digits if you're extremely lucky. They have both stretched out like a rubber band in opposite directions.

Investing decisions mean doing more work than reading one article from 2019. I've spent well over a thousand hours on Berkshire alone.

[winner69]

One of Ben Graham's words of wisdom was "The habit of relating what is paid to what is being offered is an invaluable trait in investment."

Worth thinking about when the expected 10 year nominal return on a 60% SP500 40% Treasury Bonds portfolio is about 1% pa form now

[bull....]

What is a ppt day? Pardon my ignorance.

I always come to this thread to see why the market did what it did overnight.

I would have thought a high CPI means a longer wait for a Fed pivot so markets would go down?

sorry for late reply but last 2 days volatility was extreme so very busy for me.

the PPT is not fantasy it was specifically designed to prevent irrational moves occurring in markets at certain times and maintain some stability in markets.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/plunge-protection-team.asp

[bull....]

Bulls trying desperately to hold on to S&P500's 3600 handle ....seems like its ready to go and then big leg down as more sellers then buyers ...

Bull's 3300 beckons ....:scared:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-rare-s-p-500s-violent-reversal-was-after-thursdays-inflation-report-and-what-history-shows-may-come-next-according-to-bespoke-11665763623?mod=home-page (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-rare-s-p-500s-violent-reversal-was-after-thursdays-inflation-report-and-what-history-shows-may-come-next-according-to-bespoke-11665763623?mod=home-page)

im actually in the 3000 camp and even winners levels are a possiblity.
off course we are making predictions or guesses if you like but if you didnt guess to a degree how could you invest.
unless of course your sailor rob who uses a calculator instead lol

[bull....]

No, a few major things you're missing.

Buffett has always under promised and overdelivered. Berkshire is not a just a common stock portfolio. Berkshire has totally destroyed the SP500 over any time period but what many see is the stock price which is a totally different thing. The underlying business has massively outperformed even over the last decade. But in terms of the voting machine, the SP500 has had more votes at times and is now drastically more expensive despite underperformance.

See this short write up for more information and the outperformance has continued since. https://www.vltavafund.com/analyzy/brkindex

I have much more extensive analysis that I have done which I can send anyone interested

Remember Berkshire has destroyed the indexes while holding a huge portion of equity capital in cash as well.

Your article is from 2019 and yes there will be long periods where Ted Todd and Buffett equity portfolios underperform the market but what you're missing is that Ted Weschler turned $70,000 into 240 million in under 30 years with no added capital. This is a CAGR of 32% for 30 years. The other fellow is as good as well.

Do you consider that to be proven ability to generate excess returns with small pools of money??

It's extremely difficult for me to imagine a scenario where Berkshire doesn't compound at 10 to 14% CAGR over the next decade and the SP500 might do low single digits if you're extremely lucky. They have both stretched out like a rubber band in opposite directions.

Investing decisions mean doing more work than reading one article from 2019. I've spent well over a thousand hours on Berkshire alone.

whats ironic is buffetts quote about most people being better of invested in an index fund like the sp500
to me berkshire is just a fund designed to beat the sp500 ( which it has and if you do a correllation of brk/spx you will see they near mirror each other bar brk outperformance) but i believe they have done this by concentrated bets at brilliant timed position entry by buffett with the use of derivatives to help out performance. ( just look at there perfectly timed entry into the energy sector this last yr )
I believe when munger and buffet are gone ( course they are stock picking / market timing guru's who run with a core portfolio) it will be just another regular type of investment company .

[alokdhir]

im actually in the 3000 camp and even winners levels are a possiblity.
off course we are making predictions or guesses if you like but if you didnt guess to a degree how could you invest.
unless of course your sailor rob who uses a calculator instead lol

I am much more optimistic then U both ...IMHO markets though precariously poised , have braved a lot so far ...maybe thats showing inherent faith in equities of general masses / big players ...like W69 said before ...SP are more governed by big players as they have the ammunition to move markets ...we just try to figure out the trend and follow the leaders ...thats where TA works for smaller players as it shows them the trend ...while trends are dictated by big money and their perceptions and opinions .

Its very possible we may get some Good news out of China next week ...US important data is out of the way for next few weeks like CPI etc ...Nov Fed is surely going 75 bips + along with hawkish commentary as thats the only way they can position themselves ...market knows it and plays it accordingly ...reacting less and less to hawkishness of commentary ...market has its own mind too ...its not a sheep .

Market is waiting for some good news to latch on ...China may provide with changing Zero Covid policy

Path of least resistance seems up from these levels not down ...imho ...can be wrong but month end considerations also will weigh on upside then downside .

Reversal week possibilities ahead ...maybe I am a week early !!! :p

[SailorRob]

whats ironic is buffetts quote about most people being better of invested in an index fund like the sp500
to me berkshire is just a fund designed to beat the sp500 ( which it has and if you do a correllation of brk/spx you will see they near mirror each other bar brk outperformance) but i believe they have done this by concentrated bets at brilliant timed position entry by buffett with the use of derivatives to help out performance. ( just look at there perfectly timed entry into the energy sector this last yr )
I believe when munger and buffet are gone ( course they are stock picking / market timing guru's who run with a core portfolio) it will be just another regular type of investment company .


Yes I must admit after reflecting on your well thought out analysis, that it's very hard to see how a company that has CAGR earnings at 10+% vs the index at around 5% at best, and is currently 35% cheaper than the index, has far more accurate and higher quality earnings and is far less leveraged, would be in any position to beat the index moving forward. Not to mention buying in massive amounts of stock at well below intrinsic value.

Do you have any analysis that people can buy off you?

[Mafman]

Yes I must admit after reflecting on your well thought out analysis, that it's very hard to see how a company that has CAGR earnings at 10+% vs the index at around 5% at best, and is currently 35% cheaper than the index, has far more accurate and higher quality earnings and is far less leveraged, would be in any position to beat the index moving forward. Not to mention buying in massive amounts of stock at well below intrinsic value.

Do you have any analysis that people can buy off you?

Is that sarcasm I hear dripping off your comment SR?

[Gerald]

Yes I must admit after reflecting on your well thought out analysis, that it's very hard to see how a company that has CAGR earnings at 10+% vs the index at around 5% at best, and is currently 35% cheaper than the index, has far more accurate and higher quality earnings and is far less leveraged, would be in any position to beat the index moving forward. Not to mention buying in massive amounts of stock at well below intrinsic value.

Do you have any analysis that people can buy off you?

Not trying to get into a full debate here as not relavant to the thread, but as the apple investment showed past performance is relatively unimportant compared to the importance of future investing decisions. Consider this:

- If you beleive that berkshire will outperform as much as you beleive versus a flat index it would be nearly the largest company in the world in 10 years.

- You would have 2 guys (probably T&T) in charge of a $2T plus vehicle in which you expect future outperformance as one of if not the largest pool of investable capital in the world, in a single company.

- These 2 guys have clearly demonstrated some ability with a relatively tiny pool of capital ($70k to $240m), and barely adequate ability with a larger pool ($13b each), and yet you expect them to make future investing decisions with hundreds of billions that will demolish index returns over the long term competing in the most competitive market in the world that can absorb that capital (large caps).

- Your thesis seems to be linked to 1) valuation, 2) past performance and 3) Buffett's abilities. You must accept that 2) & 3) are not relavant for long term forward looking returns, and therefore would have to explain why BRK, as what will effectively become a actively managed fund, will fare any different to the 80% or so that underperform over time.

Regardless I don't see the point of spending your whole life on such a big company that has thousands of investors on it. Even with far smaller companies it is common to buy something beleiving it is mispriced, only to look back a year or two later to understand why it really wasn't and why Mr Market was right all along.

[SailorRob]

Not trying to get into a full debate here as not relavant to the thread, but as the apple investment showed past performance is relatively unimportant compared to the importance of future investing decisions. Consider this:

- If you beleive that berkshire will outperform as much as you beleive versus a flat index it would be nearly the largest company in the world in 10 years.

- You would have 2 guys (probably T&T) in charge of a $2T plus vehicle in which you expect future outperformance as one of if not the largest pool of investable capital in the world, in a single company.

- These 2 guys have clearly demonstrated some ability with a relatively tiny pool of capital ($70k to $240m), and barely adequate ability with a larger pool ($13b each), and yet you expect them to make future investing decisions with hundreds of billions that will demolish index returns over the long term competing in the most competitive market in the world that can absorb that capital (large caps).

- Your thesis seems to be linked to 1) valuation, 2) past performance and 3) Buffett's abilities. You must accept that 2) & 3) are not relavant for long term forward looking returns, and therefore would have to explain why BRK, as what will effectively become a actively managed fund, will fare any different to the 80% or so that underperform over time.

Regardless I don't see the point of spending your whole life on such a big company that has thousands of investors on it. Even with far smaller companies it is common to buy something beleiving it is mispriced, only to look back a year or two later to understand why it really wasn't and why Mr Market was right all along.

An excellent, well thought out and relevant reply and that's not my usual sacasm reserved for the usual idiotic replies.

You have actually challenged me with well reasoned points, which is what I'm after as I'm desperate to be told what I'm missing.

In this case however I have all this covered, will give my thoughts tomorrow, I can easily satisfy these concerns.

[bull....]

Yes I must admit after reflecting on your well thought out analysis, that it's very hard to see how a company that has CAGR earnings at 10+% vs the index at around 5% at best, and is currently 35% cheaper than the index, has far more accurate and higher quality earnings and is far less leveraged, would be in any position to beat the index moving forward. Not to mention buying in massive amounts of stock at well below intrinsic value.

Do you have any analysis that people can buy off you?

actually buffett made most of his outperformance in his early yrs which naturally is easier because your fund is smaller.
the last 20 yrs his returns are 10.3% vrs 9.2% for the sp500 which my post highlighted with the correlation analysis

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stock-sp500-51651154636

in fact if you invested 5 yrs ago berkshire is roughly 45% return vrs sp500 42% return
if you are invested in the last yr in berkshire your down 12%
berkshire would need to rise 30% in the next yr just to get back to square

guess all in all if you invested in berkshire since beginning you were very lucky to have had the opportunity
there is no way in hell berkshire is going to outperform the sp500 once buffett/munger are gone
as i say again they are stock picking guru's with no equivalent

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/10/president-xi-jinping-doubles-down-on-zero-covid-talks-up-security-as-china-congress-opens.html

Hopes dashed ???

[SailorRob]

actually buffett made most of his outperformance in his early yrs which naturally is easier because your fund is smaller.
the last 20 yrs his returns are 10.3% vrs 9.2% for the sp500 which my post highlighted with the correlation analysis

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stock-sp500-51651154636

in fact if you invested 5 yrs ago berkshire is roughly 45% return vrs sp500 42% return
if you are invested in the last yr in berkshire your down 12%
berkshire would need to rise 30% in the next yr just to get back to square

guess all in all if you invested in berkshire since beginning you were very lucky to have had the opportunity
there is no way in hell berkshire is going to outperform the sp500 once buffett/munger are gone
as i say again they are stock picking guru's with no equivalent

So you'll take me up on a $10,000 bet with proceeds to charity that Berkshire outperforms over the decade following the last one of the two to depart the company Bull*?

Or you just running your mouth with nothing to back it up as usual.

Happy to go 50k or whatever you want just let me know.

Again you're talking share price not business performance. Berkshire has destroyed the SP500 and share price will eventually show this.

Voting machine and weighing machine my friend.

Looking forward to getting this bet on, not a coward I presume?

[bull....]

So you'll take me up on a $10,000 bet with proceeds to charity that Berkshire outperforms over the decade following the last one of the two to depart the company Bull*?

Or you just running your mouth with nothing to back it up as usual.

Happy to go 50k or whatever you want just let me know.

Again you're talking share price not business performance. Berkshire has destroyed the SP500 and share price will eventually show this.

Voting machine and weighing machine my friend.

Looking forward to getting this bet on, not a coward I presume?



lol
thats how people invest in berkshire. by buying the share's and that's how you measure your return by share performance.
who gives a rats arse about anything else except what return im going to get from my investment.

as for a bet on how berkshire will go over the next 10yrs without buffet etc. i thought you dont like guessing the future? or has your calculator predicted the outcome?
anyway your opinion ( as your allowed one ) on what happens matter's little to me as your not in the fortune 400 of stock investors

and looking forward to reading your reply to gerald

[SailorRob]

Not trying to get into a full debate here as not relavant to the thread, but as the apple investment showed past performance is relatively unimportant compared to the importance of future investing decisions. Consider this:

- If you beleive that berkshire will outperform as much as you beleive versus a flat index it would be nearly the largest company in the world in 10 years.

- You would have 2 guys (probably T&T) in charge of a $2T plus vehicle in which you expect future outperformance as one of if not the largest pool of investable capital in the world, in a single company.

- These 2 guys have clearly demonstrated some ability with a relatively tiny pool of capital ($70k to $240m), and barely adequate ability with a larger pool ($13b each), and yet you expect them to make future investing decisions with hundreds of billions that will demolish index returns over the long term competing in the most competitive market in the world that can absorb that capital (large caps).

- Your thesis seems to be linked to 1) valuation, 2) past performance and 3) Buffett's abilities. You must accept that 2) & 3) are not relavant for long term forward looking returns, and therefore would have to explain why BRK, as what will effectively become a actively managed fund, will fare any different to the 80% or so that underperform over time.

Regardless I don't see the point of spending your whole life on such a big company that has thousands of investors on it. Even with far smaller companies it is common to buy something beleiving it is mispriced, only to look back a year or two later to understand why it really wasn't and why Mr Market was right all along.


Not trying to get into a full debate here as not relevant to the thread, but as the apple investment showed past performance is relatively unimportant compared to the importance of future investing decisions. Consider this:

I will touch on this again, but one thing to keep in mind is that the entire Equity portfolio is 351 billion in comparison to total firm assets of nearly a Trillion. The equity portfolio is not the company, far from it.

- If you believe that berkshire will outperform as much as you believe versus a flat index it would be nearly the largest company in the world in 10 years.


A couple of things here, Berkshire is already the largest company in the world and is listed as such currently by Forbes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes_Global_2000. This is in terms of Assets, Profit, Sales and Market value. In terms of Fixed Assets alone it's the biggest. In terms of market value alone it's nearly the largest company in the world, there are only a few ahead in terms of market capitalisation. In 10 years I expect the market value to be around 2 Trillion, already a couple bigger than that and a few Months ago there were a few more. So what you claim I believe will be the case in 10 years is already true now. I do think however there will be bigger companies still in 10 years. Regarding the 'market' I don't know what it will do, flat is one possible outcome but it's hard to see how it will do more than EDIT *LOW* single digits. I think at the bottom of a bear market in 10 years time we could easily be where we are now.

- You would have 2 guys (probably T&T) in charge of a $2T plus vehicle in which you expect future outperformance as one of if not the largest pool of investable capital in the world, in a single company.


Again totally wrong here. T&T will be looking after the equity portfolio which is currently a third of firm assets. It will be Greg running the ship. A single company at the top yes but hundreds of companies under the hood.
- These 2 guys have clearly demonstrated some ability with a relatively tiny pool of capital ($70k to $240m), and barely adequate ability with a larger pool ($13b each), and yet you expect them to make future investing decisions with hundreds of billions that will demolish index returns over the long term competing in the most competitive market in the world that can absorb that capital (large caps).


No offence intended but it's naive to compare anyones performance over a few years in the middle of an epic bull market where value doesn't matter. Many many investors who have massive multi decade outperformance records have underperformed over these years. These two guys for god's sake have outperformed Buffett himself over this period you speak of. Again equity outperformance is only one trick in the hat. Lets see how these boys go over the next cycle and the rest of this current drawdown. Look at what happened after the late 90's run, the following 'lost 12 years' the guns outperformed by over 100%, Tom Gaynor for one.

- Your thesis seems to be linked to 1) valuation, 2) past performance and 3) Buffett's abilities. You must accept that 2) & 3) are not relavant for long term forward looking returns, and therefore would have to explain why BRK, as what will effectively become a actively managed fund, will fare any different to the 80% or so that underperform over time.


Of the three points, my thesis only relates to number one. You are correct with 3 and partly with 2. Past performance is a result of the culture and system they have built, which will continue.

Regardless I don't see the point of spending your whole life on such a big company that has thousands of investors on it. Even with far smaller companies it is common to buy something beleiving it is mispriced, only to look back a year or two later to understand why it really wasn't and why Mr Market was right all along.



Nobody said it was mispriced - it's priced for returns of 10 - 12% over the next decade and recent comprehensive surveys have indicated that most investors expect 18% and the last bull market has provided much better returns than this. I just don't think anyone is interested in 10%


Trust me this business is not easy to understand and many think it's just a stock portfolio. Nothing could be further from the truth.


Pre tax 2021 we had;


$4 Billion from Berkshire Energy
$8 Billion from Burlington Northern
$14.4 Manufacturing, Services, Retail and Finance
$4 Billion from Insurance underwriting
$21.6 Billion investment income
$2.5 Billion Holding Company income


$55 Billion total. See I haven't included any gains from the Stock portfolio as this isn't what it's about. 55 Billion pre tax against a market cap of 600.


The Buybacks and math involved is way beyond the scope of this but is exceptionally important to understand and a big part of the forward returns.


They have unlimited ability to reinvest all earnings at 10% ROE and with buybacks at appropriate levels it's mathematically impossible that they don't compound at 12 to 15% against a market rate of low single digits.


Look at the number of the greatest investors in the world with long term market beating track records who have huge Berkshire positions in their portfolios - many have more than 20%. This is for a reason.


Lots more to it folks, but this coveres some basics.


EDIT - meant low single digits for the index, not single digits.

[SailorRob]

lol
thats how people invest in berkshire. by buying the share's and that's how you measure your return by share performance.
who gives a rats arse about anything else except what return im going to get from my investment.

as for a bet on how berkshire will go over the next 10yrs without buffet etc. i thought you dont like guessing the future? or has your calculator predicted the outcome?
anyway your opinion ( as your allowed one ) on what happens matter's little to me as your not in the fortune 400 of stock investors

and looking forward to reading your reply to gerald


The bet is on share performance Bull*

What an absolute coward, and in public!

[Baa_Baa]

You could take your Berkshire posts here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3713-Has-Buffett-lost-his-grip&p=472616&highlight=berkshire#post472616

[bull....]

nz 10yr at highs today current cycle
everybody who care's will be watching nz inflation data tomorrow which is widely expected to decline from record high's

so widely expected means if it doesnt do as expected we should see some big action in nz50 and bonds tomorrow.
market currently seeing terminal rate at near 5% up from 4.5% at rbnz meeting.

[winner69]

nz 10yr at highs today current cycle
everybody who care's will be watching nz inflation data tomorrow which is widely expected to decline from record high's

so widely expected means if it doesnt do as expected we should see some big action in nz50 and bonds tomorrow.
market currently seeing terminal rate at near 5% up from 4.5% at rbnz meeting.

So we’ll have disinflation

Is disinflation along with an earnings recession a good combo

[alokdhir]

Seems like capitulation time round the corner ....KFL being biggest looser in last few days ...retail seems to be throwing in the towel

4200 has been good support on NZ50C ...after that is Covid lows 3900 .... May close lowest for the year on closing basis 4277 was lowest close so far ...June lows

Maybe markets doing what it needs to do to become better again ...letting the bad blood out !

Dont know boosting FPH is an index management move or someone impressed with final HY numbers ...anyways its up on very low vols

[mike2020]

No support for KFL. 10% discount looming and a lower NTA this week to boot.

[alokdhir]

No support for KFL. 10% discount looming and a lower NTA this week to boot.

I had been looking at KFL premium and support or selling as a proxy of retail confidence ...as last few days have shown ...its gone ...thats why seems like retail capitulation time ...see KPG for more clarity

Also its very easy to get paralysed by fear at such times ...but its better to have an action plan how to take advantage of such times then just keep hoping for bigger and bigger falls ...

[Rawz]

No support for KFL. 10% discount looming and a lower NTA this week to boot.

A viscous cycle down. falling NTA + falling premium = SP falling much more.

[nztx]

NZSX dont look very exciting :)

More red ink on NZX boards than on the background walls for one of her ladyships BS spinning rounds ;)

[alokdhir]

A viscous cycle down. falling NTA + falling premium = SP falling much more.

I will be happy that my final price of 1.20 on everyones horizon ...lol

Top 4 stocks which is almost 60% of corpus is down 0.25 % net today so far

FPH up 0.7% , MFT down 0.6% , IFT up .1% and SUM down 0.3% ....so NAV is doing fine ...only premium vanishing which is good sign

[mike2020]

I love your optimism.

[alokdhir]

Only time will tell the final bottom of this Bear market ....But imho now the Top of next Bull market is much further then the bottom of this ...:p

[kiora]

You could take your Berkshire posts here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3713-Has-Buffett-lost-his-grip&p=472616&highlight=berkshire#post472616

Te He
Has Buffet lost his grip..... from 2013 !

[Jaa]

No bad news in China, it is forbidden. Just mind the delay.

China Delays Release Of Q3 GDP Data: Statistics Office (https://www.barrons.com/news/china-delays-release-of-q3-gdp-data-statistics-office-01665997208)

[bull....]

alok your 3600 is holding still.
guess run out of sellers for now we need more buyers too enter to give fuel to next leg down lol
uk truss virtually given up on all her tax for the rich moves bit like the aussie's , guess luxon better rethink his plan better



nz inflation data 10.45am be worth watching

[alokdhir]

nz 10yr at highs today current cycle
everybody who care's will be watching nz inflation data tomorrow which is widely expected to decline from record high's

so widely expected means if it doesnt do as expected we should see some big action in nz50 and bonds tomorrow.
market currently seeing terminal rate at near 5% up from 4.5% at rbnz meeting.

I recon your 3000 and W69's 2800 will have to wait little more ....S&P regained 3660 short Term Bull Pivot again ...Not giving up easy mates

But that will make the break if happens very painful ....

[bull....]

I recon your 3000 and W69's 2800 will have to wait little more ....S&P regained 3660 short Term Bull Pivot again ...Not giving up easy mates

But that will make the break if happens very painful ....

agree be painful move down for many if it breaks

[alokdhir]

Gann 50% rule I heard for first time today ....which states asset will retrace 50% of its recent range in 50% of the time required to establish the range ...so as per that S&P 2200 to 4800 got retraced to 3500 in half the time ...so its a buy now !! Wonderful ...Wont please few but thought post other side of the stories too ...why only let Bears dominate in a bear market ...lol

[winner69]

At least CPI lower than June quarter

Disinflation happening

[bull....]

that was a hot inflation number , cements 75 for november i reckon.
can see the mtge rates moving higher shortly in anticipation and ORR freaking that inflation is becoming embedded maybe we get 100 ?

[Muse]

those inflation figures were a friggin' disaster. non tradeable inflation still going up. Overall came in quite a bit higher than the consensus, which seems to be a trend it keeps surprising on the upside.

[alokdhir]

that was a hot inflation number , cements 75 for november i reckon.
can see the mtge rates moving higher shortly in anticipation and ORR freaking that inflation is becoming embedded maybe we get 100 ?

Agree ...much hotter then consensus ...more trouble ahead on rates front ...75 maybe not ...but surely ANZ 4.75% peak on horizon

[bull....]

Agree ...much hotter then consensus ...more trouble ahead on rates front ...75 maybe not ...but surely ANZ 4.75% peak on horizon

nz rates big jump happening now 10yr at 4.6

[alokdhir]

nz rates big jump happening now 10yr at 4.6

TBF one can hardly see any slowdown ...layman's view ...at least in AKL ...regular hustle and bustle and businesses doing well ...no job losses or fears

So RBNZ will need to get on with it harder to trouble people more ...higher for longer theme will be playing out in 2023 ...sadly ...disappointing but reality

[bull....]

Agree ...much hotter then consensus ...more trouble ahead on rates front ...75 maybe not ...but surely ANZ 4.75% peak on horizon

market was already at a terminal rate of 5% before the inflation data. market is usually right rather than economists

[alokdhir]

market was already at a terminal rate of 5% before the inflation data. market is usually right rather than economists

Agree ...market is more sensible then individuals and so called experts ...5% shud do the trick ....holding 5% for 6-9 months will cause lots of trouble to most people and businesses these days

[winner69]

You guys being hopeful with 4.75% or 5.0% - it's going to be a lot higher

ASB's economists now saying: "We now expect a 75bp increase in November, a 50bp hike in February and final lift in April (50bp pencilled in) – implying a peak of 5.25%." Up from previous ASB peak forecast of 4.25%

[winner69]

could even go as high as 6% / &% ..... why shouldn't it

[Muse]

ANZ just came out, calling the CPI report "very concerning", and called for & forecast a 75bps hike in both November and February, taking the OCR to 5% by February, and then more or less saying who knows from there.

crickey.

[winner69]

inflation in nz not as bad as a lot of other parts of the world so no worries

All imported anyway so not our fault

and economy is in good shape

we'll be alright

[winner69]

NZX having a good day -- even FPH is up

All good

[winner69]

CPI 7.2% only the headline number

The trimmed mean and weighted median numbers down quite a lot

the number RBNZ uses published later today .... that should be downquite a lot as well

As far as Adrian goe headline and reaction might just be a storm in a teacup or whatever the phrase is

[blackcap]

ANZ just came out, calling the CPI report "very concerning", and called for & forecast a 75bps hike in both November and February, taking the OCR to 5% by February, and then more or less saying who knows from there.

crickey.

Does that mean floating mortgage rates will be between 7.5% and 8%? Boy that is going to cause a lot of hurt to people who have bought in the last 2 years.

[alokdhir]

Q3 CPI much stronger than ASB, market and RBNZ expectations, with annual CPI inflation stuck close to 30-year highs



•

There is still a large bow wave of inflationary pressure in place, with high rates of core and non-tradable inflation still in evidence and the risk of these outcomes becoming increasingly entrenched.



•

Inflation is much too high. Increasingly restrictive OCR settings are required. We now expect a 75bp increase in November, a 50bp hike in February and final lift in April (50bp pencilled in) – implying a peak of 5.25%.

ASB changing from 4.25% to 5.25% ....wow

[alokdhir]

Why market not reacting very negatively to disastrous CPI data ? Fails me ...

Maybe like Bull said market already had 5% peak baked in ...now its still 5% game in the picture ....or we only react to US CPI numbers not ours !!!!

[t.rexjr]

inflation in nz not as bad as a lot of other parts of the world so no worries

All imported anyway so not our fault

and economy is in good shape

we'll be alright

Watch building consents tumble in the coming months

[Muse]

Why market not reacting very negatively to disastrous CPI data ? Fails me ...

Maybe like Bull said market already had 5% peak baked in ...now its still 5% game in the picture ....or we only react to US CPI numbers not ours !!!!

Retail dominated nzx just following what happened in American markets overnight. Takes a few days to trickle through. Though the full consequences of high interest rates will take time to be reflected in the economy and nzx, though for interest rate sensitive stocks you’d expect the impact soon

[alokdhir]

Retail dominated nzx just following what happened in American markets overnight. Takes a few days to trickle through. Though the full consequences of high interest rates will take time to be reflected in the economy and nzx, though for interest rate sensitive stocks you’d expect the impact soon

All the stocks are Interest rates sensitive one way or the other ...One who borrow heavily will need pay higher interest costs / While cash reserves positive growth stocks will get SP crushed due to higher rates in DCF methodology ....so no where to hide for next 6 months or more ....Break of 4200 support on cards ahead

PS : Need to become Bear from Bull :eek2:

[bull....]

Retail dominated nzx just following what happened in American markets overnight. Takes a few days to trickle through. Though the full consequences of high interest rates will take time to be reflected in the economy and nzx, though for interest rate sensitive stocks you’d expect the impact soon

correct.
nz economy going into recession sometime next yr should be a good bet for nz50 continuing going down over time

expect retail , property and utility type stocks to get a big savaging over time as repriced for higher rates and slower spending

[bull....]

market has fully priced in a 75pt ocr rise today.
orr will be under pressure now to deliver and stop pandering to robinson.

[mike2020]

All the stocks are Interest rates sensitive one way or the other ...One who borrow heavily will need pay higher interest costs / While cash reserves positive growth stocks will get SP crushed due to higher rates in DCF methodology ....so no where to hide for next 6 months or more ....Break of 4200 support on cards ahead

PS : Need to become Bear from Bull :eek2:

Maybe that will help you? :cool:

As per the current Share Buyback Policy, Kingfish will only buy back shares if the discount to the last published net asset value is greater than 8%.

[winner69]

We're in good hands as this person on social media points out

Must congratulate the Govt and Grant Robertson on the control of inflation,the media will go all out to find the negative, but I'm not wrong,look at the World figures,

[alokdhir]

Maybe that will help you? :cool:

As per the current Share Buyback Policy, Kingfish will only buy back shares if the discount to the last published net asset value is greater than 8%.

Thanks mate ....Moved by your concern ...atleast KFL has a buyback plan what about HGH buyers at 1.80 ...feel for them ...lol

PS : FYI My buying range was from 1.35 to 1.20 with price weightage downwards ...so still lots to go before I rest ...maybe will need to put it all in bottom drawer :cool:

[alokdhir]

We're in good hands as this person on social media points out

Must congratulate the Govt and Grant Robertson on the control of inflation,the media will go all out to find the negative, but I'm not wrong,look at the World figures,

Many will argue with some merit at least that its too early for recent rate hikes to be working ....all know it takes 6-9 months after above neutral rates to start applying brakes ....I think braking will be also very severe when they come into effect .

[Bobdn]

Countries all followed the same inflationary formula: lockdowns and monster money printing. And then they look at each other and declare "there's high inflation everywhere so it's not really our fault". Safety in numbers I guess.

A black Monday every day for home owners who bought in the last couple of years and have big mortgages.

[Panda-NZ-]

The bear market is nearly over and we have Britain to thank.

November is one of the best performing months historically.

[bull....]

maybe the sp500 setting up a range between roughly 3570 - 3800 ?

[Tomtom]

The bear market is nearly over and we have Britain to thank. November is one of the best performing months historically. I'll believe Reserve Banks are done when I see inflation heading back towards target.

[alokdhir]

maybe the sp500 setting up a range between roughly 3570 - 3800 ?

I am surprised that after spike up till 4.616 NZ10Y closed much below at 4.527 ....Why ? U think market thinks top of rates expectations reached ? If thats the case or this theme sticks then NZX reversal can happen sooner then we at present expect ....

After all there is a limit to Peak rate expectations ....they just cant be going up and up

One more Bear rally possibilities arise on such thoughts gaining ground in the market till some reality dashes that hope as being too early ....

[mike2020]

Higher interest rates have historically been the norm for NZ. Higher dollar making imports less expensive while depressing local spending (except for Labours). Floating rates 9.5 by march 23.

[JBmurc]

NZ Property sector going to implode with 8-9% rates ...but I guess thats the plan...

[Aaron]

NZ Property sector going to implode with 8-9% rates ...but I guess thats the plan...

"Implode" "Break" I prefer the word "Correct" when considering what might happen with rising interest rates.

Debt should equal risk, the central bank is supposed to provide price stability not boost asset prices while creating moral hazard while protecting the "risk takers"

[alokdhir]

The way Central Banks are in a hurry to kill demand to conquer Inflation will surely result in world recession in second half of 2023 then they will fall over each other going the other way or maybe they will be more sensible then the markets by going neutral plus 2-2.5% and hold to see what it results in ...give it 6 months

As per latest RBNZ data ...neutral for NZ now is 2-2.5% OCR so at 4.5% OCR its pretty restrictive ...RBNZ will try to reach that soon and hold hopefully otherwise it may become an overkill ...but if elections round the corner then there will be other considerations ...Cant go to elections with people in Deep Pain ...surely Labour will be voted out then ...so they will try to plan better if they can

[bull....]

market pricing end of yesterday was for an ocr of over 5% now
mean mtge's fixed of 7 - 8*% ?

anyone who got mtge last 2yrs likely be at food banks end next yr ? as all money be going on mtge's

[winner69]

One sign of optimism is that market bottoms often signal the end of the recession is not that far away

It’s a bugger we’re not in a recession at the moment.

All a bit confusing methinks

[bull....]

must also remember when fed pivot historically markets keep going down for a while too before true bottom

[alokdhir]

must also remember when fed pivot historically markets keep going down for a while too before true bottom


Have u put Elections next year in the mix mate ? I am sure it will also have some influence on the final outcome

[bull....]

Have u put Elections next year in the mix mate ? I am sure it will also have some influence on the final outcome

yea maybe santa not come this yr

[alokdhir]

What can Labour do to make people happy about economy by late 2023 ? Surely not gifting them further Cost of living payments as that will only prolong our agony .

Maybe encourage RBNZ to go 100 bps Nov and Feb then by next 6 months we can be looking at Santa rally 2023 . Hopefully our FM reads our posts :p

[winner69]

A world view -

Central banks have fooled themselves into thinking they have power over inflation

Over forty years ago, the Cambridge economist Bob Rowthorn argued that high inflation occurred whenever there was a lack of consensus about the distribution of income, especially between profits and wages. A wage-price-spiral would rapidly develop which could only be broken by a sharp rise in unemployment.

Rowthorn’s idea, in the current context, is worrying and suggests inflation will stick around for some time to come.




https://paulormerod.com/central-banks-have-fooled-themselves-into-thinking-they-have-power-over-inflation/

[winner69]

What can Labour do to make people happy about economy by late 2023 ? Surely not gifting them further Cost of living payments as that will only prolong our agony .

Maybe encourage RBNZ to go 100 bps Nov and Feb then by next 6 months we can be looking at Santa rally 2023 . Hopefully our FM reads our posts :p

Doubt whether Adhern will be too worried ….she would have moved on by then …maybe even in next month or two

[alokdhir]

Doubt whether Adhern will be too worried ….she would have moved on

I think they will surely try their best as its still even fight but if we are in deep recession economically then her rout is almost certain and will be convincingly also

This factor is not getting enough attention here at the moment while in USA it matters a lot as people are very sensitive to their own plight and they hold ruling party responsible fully

[alokdhir]

Also last two days of trading has showed clearly that our market is not controlled by local data or local rates ....Disastrous CPI data came and we still keep going up ...Rates are up ...NZ10Y yield is up but NZX50 also up both days

When bad news stop moving markets down then its told bottom done ...Is it ??

[bull....]

nz 10yr at 4.65 now only matter of time before bear bounce ends

another nail in the coffin of some stocks

anz raises 1 yr term deposit to 4.3%

ANZ is the first to react to the much higher wholesale swap rates that have flowed from the surprise CPI data. They have raised fixed home loan rates by about +45 bps and term deposit rates by about +30 bps
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118061/anz-first-react-much-higher-wholesale-swap-rates-have-flowed-surprise-cpi

if orr doesnt get cracking 10% mtge rates next yr possible and depression in nz

actually 10yr at 4.68 now

[bull....]

big jump in bond rates offshore
be interesting if it flows thru in nz today after yesterday rises in nz

[bull....]

there we go folks nz10yr opened in the 4.70s this morning
nz terminal rate since cpi release is inching closer towards 6

guess orr gave his thinking away by not declaring there terminal rate last meeting and eluding to the 75pt hike maybe 100? is actually on the table now? considering the big gap to feb

[alokdhir]

there we go folks nz10yr opened in the 4.70s this morning
nz terminal rate since cpi release is inching closer towards 6

guess orr gave his thinking away by not declaring there terminal rate last meeting and eluding to the 75pt hike maybe 100? is actually on the table now? considering the big gap to feb

I hope u fully understand that Bond market is also like equity market which overshoots on both sides of reality based on the trend and current perceptions . Bond market wisdom is also subject to reality and can be very wrong at times .

But I agree that at present Higher rates forever is the theme but still Equity market is not that disturbed as its not fully convinced that OCR will reach 5.5% and stay there FOREVER

Though great long term opportunities in Bond Markets to lock in great yields .

Actually having a 100bips OCR rise in Nov is a good idea then by Feb RBNZ will have a better idea how the Xmas went for public so it can react accordingly in FEB

Will it have the courage to do that ...I very much doubt but should do

PS : Many buying REITS now can consider Bonds with 7.5% yields with capital appreciation opportunity when rates fall eventually ...maybe more safer thats why REITS are falling

[bull....]

I hope u fully understand that Bond market is also like equity market which overshoots on both sides of reality based on the trend and current perceptions . Bond market wisdom is also subject to reality and can be very wrong at times .

But I agree that at present Higher rates forever is the theme but still Equity market is not that disturbed as its not fully convinced that OCR will reach 5.5% and stay there FOREVER

Though great long term opportunities in Bond Markets to lock in great yields .

Actually having a 100bips OCR rise in Nov is a good idea then by Feb RBNZ will have a better idea how the Xmas went for public so it can react accordingly in FEB

Will it have the courage to do that ...I very much doubt but should do

PS : Many buying REITS now can consider Bonds with 7.5% yields with capital appreciation opportunity when rates fall eventually ...maybe more safer thats why REITS are falling

i agree people will get the chance at some stage to lock in some good bond rates and yes that might be at the expense of holding utility/retirement stocks/reits or property stocks. unless of course the price of these drop low enough to make them compelling, certainly not the case at the moment.

[Grimy]

Looking forwards to the new rates on bonds that are soon to have their rates reset.

[bull....]

nz 10yr into the 4.80s now

[Muse]

nz 10yr into the 4.80s now

+4.8% now. incredible. there must be a tight squeeze going on somewhere drying up liquidity. I think there was a lot of fear what would happen to the gilt market after the bank of england signaled they would end their emergency intervention on friday. all that did was whip up the market into a frenzy asking what happens after that.

[bull....]

+4.8% now. incredible. there must be a tight squeeze going on somewhere drying up liquidity. I think there was a lot of fear what would happen to the gilt market after the bank of england signaled they would end their emergency intervention on friday. all that did was whip up the market into a frenzy asking what happens after that.

orr's credibility on line now market must think he's way behind the curve

[alokdhir]

orr's credibility on line now market must think he's way behind the curve

OCR does not follow market . RBNZ sets rates not markets ...market can overstep both ways ...So what ever equity market or Bond market does hardly ever influences Central Banks unless market stability is at risk ...no meltdowns around so expect Orr to sound confident that he is in control and on TOP of the job at hand ...he will also remind all that rates need time to work

[bull....]

OCR does not follow market . RBNZ sets rates not markets ...market can overstep both ways ...So what ever equity market or Bond market does hardly ever influences Central Banks unless market stability is at risk ...no meltdowns around so expect Orr to sound confident that he is in control and on TOP of the job at hand ...he will also remind all that rates need time to work

markets before cpi said orr was behind curve. now even more so

orr just pandering to robinson instead off doing his independant job

[SailorRob]

OCR does not follow market . RBNZ sets rates not markets ...market can overstep both ways ...So what ever equity market or Bond market does hardly ever influences Central Banks unless market stability is at risk ...no meltdowns around so expect Orr to sound confident that he is in control and on TOP of the job at hand ...he will also remind all that rates need time to work


What rates exactly does the RBNZ set?

[Bobdn]

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/the-official-cash-rate

The RBNZ sets the OCR, which is an interest rate.

Pretty good link, has some useful information "The Official Cash Rate is the interest rate set by the Monetary Policy Committee....".

The OCR is a pretty big deal and "influences the price of borrowing money in NZ".

[Muse]

nz 10yr into the 4.80s now

and dropped like a stone. pretty significant intraday volatility

[bull....]

and dropped like a stone. pretty significant intraday volatility

yea i saw that , someone obviously thought it was racing high too fast .... orr lol

[alokdhir]

and dropped like a stone. pretty significant intraday volatility

If u are a foreign investor say from USA for ease of understanding then locking risk free 4.8% in NZD which is also close to or near bottom vs USD then its really attractive deal ...just put few hundred millions to work and U have great from 3 sides ...locked good yield , good capital appreciation chances in next 2-3 years and then gained on currency also .

Wish I had USD to invest or USD was my home currency :D

[bull....]

If u are a foreign investor say from USA for ease of understanding then locking risk free 4.8% in NZD which is also close to or near bottom vs USD then its really attractive deal ...just put few hundred millions to work and U have great from 3 sides ...locked good yield , good capital appreciation chances in next 2-3 years and then gained on currency also .

Wish I had USD to invest or USD was my home currency :D

unless nz a banana republic by then.
the world is changing , globalisation which nz relies on big time is fading to be replaced by ?

[winner69]

Investors now expect Fed to raise rates to 5% next year says ft.com

Means NZ OCR close to 6%?

[Rawz]

When is the E supposed to fall? Been waking up to solid earnings reports coming out of the states..

[Joshuatree]

Investors now expect Fed to raise rates to 5% next year says ft.com

Means NZ OCR close to 6%?

Timing to start buying bonds?

[percy]

https://stockhead.cmail20.com/t/d-l-zptldy-yupddjlly-n/

[kiora]

Well said stockhead
"Just make sure that you have a nice balance of quality assets with the occasional speculative one just to keep your heart beating and not the other way around.

But what would I know?"

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/treasury-market-liquidity-bond-market-yellen-51666378531?mod=mw_latestnews

Bond markets can be start of trouble which may force FED into some action like BoE

This is the final push of the yields most likely so if stocks can handle this then worst will be over for them sooner then we all expect ...Bond yields made significantly higher tops but not stock market made much lower lows compared to June lows ...unless they will do that ahead !!!

Till stocks withstand and can pass this bond market rout we may end up doing well in stocks ahead

Our CPI was disastrous all agree , our banks raised rates expectations significantly with ASB adding full 100 bips to estimated Peak rate BUT our stock market hardly reacted ....So far it has held up well ...Does that mean all bad news in the prices already or companies can handle this turmoil without much effect on Earnings ..eg MFT is still doing exceedingly well ...growing fast not even flat lining ...is it YET or thats the norm .

Inflation has two sides Demand issues and Supply Issues ...maybe this little slowdown with higher rates is first sorting supply chain bottlenecks rather then full on Demand destruction so not effecting Good companies that much ...still no signs of excess capacities at any levels but all will fall in place in few months without Good companies loosing much earnings ...at least thats what Stock market thinks so far and pricing accordingly ....its not as gloomy as Bond markets as stocks are more dependent on companies earnings for SP not just rates unlike Bonds

[winner69]

Golly gosh - bloody hell - just came across this -

@husssmanjp
Easy to forget that the 1973-74, 1981-82, 2000-02, and 2007-09 bear markets all unfolded AFTER the initial Fed pivot. The '73-74 pivot was short lived amid high inflation. Unless market internals are favorable (read my stuff), pivots amid recession risk say "something just broke"

Chart that came with this

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1583568802402353153?s=20&t=NVGLD_80SgG16pFa6yd0tg

[BlackPeter]

Not sure everyone can already smell it ... but if I look at some of my European stocks - many managed to push over the last days through the MA50, and some even through the MA100. Portfolio starting to shine in more friendly colours.

Some of my NZ stocks look like a double bottom might be in the cards ... and hey, just look at banking stocks - ANZ even managed to smash the MA200!

Still early days and I am sure another frost can destroy lots of promising buds, but hey - winter might be over :) ;

Obviously - maybe it is just the nice weather outside? Who knows ... but I am starting to become a bit more optimistic ...

[SailorRob]

Not sure everyone can already smell it ... but if I look at some of my European stocks - many managed to push over the last days through the MA50, and some even through the MA100. Portfolio starting to shine in more friendly colours.

Some of my NZ stocks look like a double bottom might be in the cards ... and hey, just look at banking stocks - ANZ even managed to smash the MA200!

Still early days and I am sure another frost can destroy lots of promising buds, but hey - winter might be over :) ;

Obviously - maybe it is just the nice weather outside? Who knows ... but I am starting to become a bit more optimistic ...


Unless you're on your last legs optimism means that you are hoping things become much much cheaper.

[BlackPeter]

Unless you're on your last legs optimism means that you are hoping things become much much cheaper.

Actually if I look at European stocks, some of them are already ridiculously cheap.

Here are some examples:

Bayer (huge and long established chemical and pharmaceutical company with amazing earnings) is on a forward PE of 9.2 and an earnings CAGR of 15;

Daimler Trucks is on a forward PE of below 8;

Mercedes Benz (the cars) is on a forward PE of 5 and a backwards PE of 7;

Fresenius (dialysis equipment and running hospitals) is on a forward as well as backward PE of around 7

Heidelberg Cement (maybe like our FBU just global and much much bigger) is on a forward PE of below 6;

... and there are plenty more.

Clearly - these prices are already severely depressed by the fear of Putins war. Historically we are ways in overblown territory ... but sure, they always can get still cheaper.

Personally I don't mind too much. I have enough cash to navigate the storm ... and still some powder left to buy more when a trend change is confirmed.

However - I don't enjoy times of economical distress - they push politics to its extremist poles and flush inept idiots and populists into the political leadership: Putin, Xi, Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, Truss, Johnson (again?) ... and so many others. People are suffering for their folly all over the world.

Optimism means that this craziness stops, that the idiots and extremists crawl back under their respective rocks and people learn again to peacefully coexist and flourish. This will only happen when economy and markets stabilize ... and this is what I am hoping for.

[SailorRob]

Actually if I look at European stocks, some of them are already ridiculously cheap.

Here are some examples:

Bayer (huge and long established chemical and pharmaceutical company with amazing earnings) is on a forward PE of 9.2 and an earnings CAGR of 15;

Daimler Trucks is on a forward PE of below 8;

Mercedes Benz (the cars) is on a forward PE of 5 and a backwards PE of 7;

Fresenius (dialysis equipment and running hospitals) is on a forward as well as backward PE of around 7

Heidelberg Cement (maybe like our FBU just global and much much bigger) is on a forward PE of below 6;

... and there are plenty more.

Clearly - these prices are already severely depressed by the fear of Putins war. Historically we are ways in overblown territory ... but sure, they always can get still cheaper.

Personally I don't mind too much. I have enough cash to navigate the storm ... and still some powder left to buy more when a trend change is confirmed.

However - I don't enjoy times of economical distress - they push politics to its extremist poles and flush inept idiots and populists into the political leadership: Putin, Xi, Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, Truss, Johnson (again?) ... and so many others. People are suffering for their folly all over the world.

Optimism means that this craziness stops, that the idiots and extremists crawl back under their respective rocks and people learn again to peacefully coexist and flourish. This will only happen when economy and markets stabilize ... and this is what I am hoping for.

Agree.

BASF another one, BMW... there are many. Plus you're buying a depressed currency (using a depressed currency)!

Not to mention the financials.

Lots of opportunities in the UK too.

But to my point, being able to poke back in a few dividends at these levels will lead to massive future returns.

[Bobdn]

Guys I was just scrolling through Twitter. I see Tom Lee thinks we may have bottomed. I hope so.

I'm determined not to miss the best days of the market, so far so good.

Just say no to rage selling. I didn't get where I am today by rage selling.

[winner69]

More bearish events coming alokdhir

BlackPeter often mentions horoscopes/astrology stuff so must be basis to the concept

going to be a very big week astrologically.

23rd: scorpio season begins
23rd: saturn stations direct
25th: solar eclipse in scorpio
28th: jupiter re-enters pisces
30th: mars stations retrograde

the eclipse & jupiter transit in particular appear very bearish for markets.

https://twitter.com/marenaltman/status/1584050421181476864?s=61&t=tpVLK9xZ9PTd3j-Q3Jw1sg
Videos are quite good …even some ta charts

[alokdhir]

More bearish events coming alokdhir

BlackPeter often mentions horoscopes/astrology stuff so must be basis to the concept

going to be a very big week astrologically.


23rd: scorpio season begins
23rd: saturn stations direct
25th: solar eclipse in scorpio
28th: jupiter re-enters pisces
30th: mars stations retrograde

the eclipse & jupiter transit in particular appear very bearish for markets.

https://twitter.com/marenaltman/status/1584050421181476864?s=61&t=tpVLK9xZ9PTd3j-Q3Jw1sg
Videos are quite good …even some ta charts

China not changing their stance on zero covid policy is very disappointing ...maybe because of bad omens u listed above :p

[bull....]

China not changing their stance on zero covid policy is very disappointing ...maybe because of bad omens u listed above :p

yes hong kong not happy down 5% at the moment.
my prediction long term is it wont exist

[bull....]

be interesting how nzx goes today , good day on the asx yesterday my lithium stocks went berserk and us markets up so good day ahead ? everything everywhere pretty quiet focus on fed and mid terms now probably

[winner69]

be interesting how nzx goes today , good day on the asx yesterday my lithium stocks went berserk and us markets up so good day ahead ? everything everywhere pretty quiet focus on fed and mid terms now probably

Be a boomer of day on NZX today …some catching to do

Even OCA will do OK …up 3 cents methinks

[BlackPeter]

China not changing their stance on zero covid policy is very disappointing ...maybe because of bad omens u listed above :p

Unlikely - the Chinese use a different Zodiac system to predict the future. Suppose however that their hit rate is comparable to the one of our astrology :p ; BTW - I hear reading tea leaves, throwing bones or laying Tarock cards works to the same level of accuracy ...

[BlackPeter]

be interesting how nzx goes today , good day on the asx yesterday my lithium stocks went berserk and us markets up so good day ahead ? everything everywhere pretty quiet focus on fed and mid terms now probably

Add to that that England seems to be at the brink of ending their long tradition of appointing bubbling idiots to PM ... and that NZ might soon be Englands largest trading partner ... all up for the NZX - even our agricultural stocks might do well. Feed little England!

[winner69]

Add to that that England seems to be at the brink of ending their long tradition of appointing bubbling idiots to PM ... and that NZ might soon be Englands largest trading partner ... all up for the NZX - even our agricultural stocks might do well. Feed little England!

Does NZ export Spam and fishheads ..... and other 'wartime foods'

Sales of Spam have jumped by 36%, while sales of fish heads were 34% higher, the UK supermarket Waitrose said in its annual food and drink report.

[bull....]

Add to that that England seems to be at the brink of ending their long tradition of appointing bubbling idiots to PM ... and that NZ might soon be Englands largest trading partner ... all up for the NZX - even our agricultural stocks might do well. Feed little England!

lol all available food must go to china. you get to eat the second's or as you suggest if we start sending all the seconds to england you can enjoy the third's but then i guess with house building more profitable than growing food and climate measure's favouring tree's to build our houses one day we might have to import food from ?

[BlackPeter]

Does NZ export Spam and fishheads ..... and other 'wartime foods'

Sales of Spam have jumped by 36%, while sales of fish heads were 34% higher, the UK supermarket Waitrose said in its annual food and drink report.

I guess anything which fills the belly and is cheap. England is going through tough times.

[alokdhir]

I guess anything which fills the belly and is cheap. England is going through tough times.

Do people of the country and others who are watching will learn the most Important lesson being played out in England ...that u will eventually pay for the incompetence of your leaders ...people chose on race / populist agenda / entertaining speeches / least on merit ...see where it has got them ...on the mat .

At least in China people can say we not responsible but not in western democracies where its becoming more and more Boris/ Trumps trump Sunaks !!

NZ is supposed to have a very sensible and upright electorate ...but over emphasis on personal freedom makes collective welfare or growth more and more difficult like rest of western world . Pragmatic leadership which has respect of most is the need of the hour for western democracies which all are going thru difficult times too ...as they are democratic and respectful only during good times ...in difficult times they also transform into jungle rule of some sorts !!!

[Ggcc]

I guess anything which fills the belly and is cheap. England is going through tough times.
And I still hear my English mates telling Brexit was a fantastic idea. I know there is more than just Brexit that the English are dealing with, but Brexit can be blamed for a lot.

[bull....]

thats a very lack lustre bounce nz50. i always say if ya cant bounce hard on good days something bad under the hood

[BlackPeter]

Do people of the country and others who are watching will learn the most Important lesson being played out in England ...that u will eventually pay for the incompetence of your leaders ...people chose on race / populist agenda / entertaining speeches / least on merit ...see where it has got them ...on the mat .


Easy answer - Short term - Maybe, though not likely. Mid and long term - No.

Just study human history. While some humans do have a limited ability to learn from their own mistakes, they basically don't learn (as a species) from the mistakes their forebears made.

There is an endless list of lying and stealing thieves and psychopaths running various countries ... and it always ended in tears. Despite this does humanity seem to move towards another high of lying, stealing and murderous psychopaths running the majority of human population.

There is an endless list of people fostering their divisions and fighting each other instead of trying to achieve something together - and it always ended in tears. And despite this do we have in all countries a move towards the extreme political poles, fostering internal fight instead of working together for the common good.

Plenty of people still thought yesterday Johnson can make it back after only 45 days to British PM, and the Americans (as a people) learned absolutely nothing from the disastrous Trump area and the GOP destroying American democracy. They still try to tear each other down and kick the other side, even if it just means they weaken the country as a whole.

Anyway - despite all these human failings did we manage to get through up to this point, which is no mean feat, isn't it?

[alokdhir]

thats a very lack lustre bounce nz50. i always say if ya cant bounce hard on good days something bad under the hood

Defensive markets are defensive as they are low Beta ...low beta markets dont have big moves either side ...but wait for it ...big money is still waking up in Australia ...they will bring it up to mark soon ...our local retail has become very apprehensive and scared as most of the "Bulls have become Bears " ...no pun intended :D

[bull....]

Defensive markets are defensive as they are low Beta ...low beta markets dont have big moves either side ...but wait for it ...big money is still waking up in Australia ...they will bring it up to mark soon ...our local retail has become very apprehensive and scared as most of the "Bulls have become Bears " ...no pun intended :D

lol can always rely on you to put a positive spin on what in reality is going to be a tanking nz50 next yr.
why because the country going to the pack market just wont believe it yet but just like inflation is transitory narrative market will wake up.
increasing speculation going on ardern going to bale because she knows how bad next yr will become

[alokdhir]

lol can always rely on you to put a positive spin on what in reality is going to be a tanking nz50 next yr.
why because the country going to the pack market just wont believe it yet but just like inflation is transitory narrative market will wake up.
increasing speculation going on ardern going to bale because she knows how bad next yr will become

I fully agree that second half of next year will be worst for the ECONOMY but for markets maybe we are going thru its worst part ...if market's forward looking eyes working fine ...If u think u are getting it more right then markets at the moment then thats another theme ...Market knows worst is ahead ...at present it places second half 2023 as worst economical period , market knows OCR can go as high as 5.4% by mid 2023 , market knows some companies will do very badly and some will do better then others in such conditions so market has become Stock specific also market knows Inflation is with us for longer period then normal cycles due to resilience of typical household finances due to better and sticky employment ( which is supporting economies better so shallow recessions thus lingering inflation )

Unless something drastically different happens then above ...market has almost all of above covered and priced accordingly . Real data can come either side of the above scenarios which will have matching responses from markets ahead

[winner69]

lol can always rely on you to put a positive spin on what in reality is going to be a tanking nz50 next yr.
why because the country going to the pack market just wont believe it yet but just like inflation is transitory narrative market will wake up.
increasing speculation going on ardern going to bale because she knows how bad next yr will become

Love those stories about Ardern talking to the Fed to see what they are up .... if they say bad things she bails out .... but really she trying to convince the Fed to take it easy so no deep recessions .....and she might stay on

[bull....]

Love those stories about Ardern talking to the Fed to see what they are up .... if they say bad things she bails out .... but really she trying to convince the Fed to take it easy so no deep recessions .....and she might stay on

i think the aussie treasurer and robinson both had meetings recently with powell and neither looked to happy afterwards about next yr. robinson was quoted as saying it be rough
anyway ardern of to consult the peguins in antarctica

[winner69]

i think the aussie treasurer and robinson both had meetings recently with powell and neither looked to happy afterwards about next yr. robinson was quoted as saying it be rough
anyway ardern of to consult the peguins in antarctica

Cool - some wonderful photo opportunities down that way

Suppose the press entourage on the plane as well

[alokdhir]

thats a very lack lustre bounce nz50. i always say if ya cant bounce hard on good days something bad under the hood

R u happier now with 10900 ie 1.1% up ? Wait for the close too ...shud close strong unless more bad news from China ...expect 1.5% up close or nearby

[bull....]

R u happier now with 10900 ie 1.1% up ? Wait for the close too ...shud close strong unless more bad news from China ...expect 1.5% up close or nearby

still couple hrs to go but yes has improved from this morning but still only consolidating at the lows in my opinion.
I see jacinda flying back to nz now after reading sharetrader this morning on her way to the snow so maybe thats why it rallied more?

[dobby41]

anyway ardern of to consult the peguins in antarctica

Nope - she's on her way back. Weather!

[alokdhir]

still couple hrs to go but yes has improved from this morning but still only consolidating at the lows in my opinion.
I see jacinda flying back to nz now after reading sharetrader this morning on her way to the snow so maybe thats why it rallied more?

U r funny ...I heard lots of chatter on private groups about she thinking of quitting around Xmas time ...W69 has got that right I suppose ...I thought he is kidding

Maybe another reason for market to rejoice soon ...Hopefully we wont get tax cuts like UK and then doom and gloom ...lol

[bull....]

chief economist from RBNZ just spoke melbourne

says hopeful inflation peaked ... really me too

this caught my eye

he said. There are also “lots of signs” pointing to an upcoming “bust, or at least a significant slowdown, in construction activity.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-25/rbnz-is-hopeful-inflation-has-peaked-chief-economist-says?leadSource=uverify%20wall

[BlackPeter]

still couple hrs to go but yes has improved from this morning but still only consolidating at the lows in my opinion.
I see jacinda flying back to nz now after reading sharetrader this morning on her way to the snow so maybe thats why it rallied more?

You are saying Share prices go up because Jacinda is returning from the ice? You do surprise me.

[Snoopy]

i think the aussie treasurer and robinson both had meetings recently with powell and neither looked to happy afterwards about next yr. robinson was quoted as saying it be rough


Who is this 'robinson' you keep going on about?

SNOOPY

[bull....]

Who is this 'robinson' you keep going on about?

SNOOPY

haha cant even get his name right grant robertson ( i looked it up) oh well doesnt really matter does it. its not like his name will go down in the history books as a great finance minister is it ?

[mike2020]

Sunak - who has become PM after meeting King Charles - pledged to “fix” the “mistakes” Truss made during her disastrous 49-day tenure as leader, the shortest in history.
He warned of “difficult decisions” to deal with the “profound economic crisis”, but added to struggling families: “I fully understand how hard things are”.

I needed a good laugh.

[alokdhir]

If nothing more then Sunak is much more well equipped with knowledge and training to manage bad economy then Boris the muddler ...

[mike2020]

I agree with you there but I think someone with1.5 billion who now has "lunch money" for life probably has no understanding at all. I heard a phrase yesterday "complete submission to ego" in relation to our own tone deaf govt. Seemed apt. Look at our current health minister next time you see him, complete liar at every opportunity.

[bull....]

while the results season in US is not to bad so far the microsoft and alphabet results out this morning confirmed the slowdown starting to hit big tech . texas instruments confirmed slowdown broadening out too in there sector
all in all so far to me as expected things starting to turn next report season should really nail the down turn under way.

in aus there inflation out today pretty bad still

Official Bureau of Statistics figures show prices are up 7.3 per cent over the past year, with new housing costs again the main contributor, along with petrol and diesel.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-26/inflation-cpi-september-quarter-2022-abs/101578650

in NZ confidence turning down again

Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows a drop in business confidence and activity levels - but inflation expectations have risen again

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/118169/latest-anz-business-outlook-survey-shows-drop-business-confidence-and-activity

[Tomtom]

chief economist from RBNZ just spoke melbourne says hopeful inflation peaked ... really me too this caught my eye
[Colour=#000000]he said. There are also “lots of signs” pointing to an upcoming “bust, or at least a significant slowdown, in construction activity.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-25/rbnz-is-hopeful-inflation-has-peaked-chief-economist-says?leadSource=uverify%20wall


[/COLOR] We shouldn't be that surprised, consumers have been enduring high inflation eroding their spending power for over a year now and few commentators seem to see a return to target before 2024.

About a quarter of Kiwis have a mortgage so benefit from low rates but almost everyone is disadvantaged by higher inflation every day. That's why inflation control is so important.

[bull....]

We shouldn't be that surprised, consumers have been enduring high inflation eroding their spending power for over a year now and few commentators seem to see a return to target before 2024.

About a quarter of Kiwis have a mortgage so benefit from low rates but almost everyone is disadvantaged by higher inflation every day. That's why inflation control is so important.

exactly. yet ORR is still money printing and running a loose monetary policy

[winner69]

Oz September CPI - Inflation Picks Up The Pace …now 7.3% ..up from 6.1% in Jube

Migh higher thanbexpected …wow

[Bobdn]

It's a shocker. Energy prices in Australia are expected to surge over the next two years - yesterday's Budget estimated a 56 per cent increase in retail electricity prices. It's not the Government's fault, you see, it's the war in Ukraine. Plus unlike some countries Australia is resource poor - no coal, gas, oil or uranium. Unlucky country.

Not much the Australian government can do. Just corks bobbing on the ocean. If only it had access to cheap fuel.....

[bull....]

nice bounce the last couple days nz50 , obviously all markets are bouncing from oversold levels. mentioned a while ago we needed a bounce to draw in more buyers for fuel for the next leg down lol as the last move down had become exhausted.
anyone own a diesel ute? prices at the pump will be the most expensive soon then add in road user charges and sh.. they will be very expensive toys to run for some

[mike2020]

I know, it isn't really funny. The asx is a **** show of bot trading so overseas companies can steal the underwear off mom and pop in AUS and export all the gas, which they do as soon as it's confirmed to be in the ground. Meanwhile the greens in all the liberal west lead us down the path of energy poverty. It's difficult to swallow that's for sure.

[Entrep]

Pivot incoming?

14270

[bull....]

very bad results meta , google and now amazon down 17% in after market waiting for apple now .... if bad it be a very bad day tomorrow wall st

see anz must be worried about interest rate rises

ANZ New Zealand will soon be increasing its mortgage serviceability interest rate, the rate it tests mortgage applicants' ability to repay at, to above 8%.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118188/anz-nz-ceo-antonia-watson-says-banks-monitoring-mortgage-borrowers-whose

anz also said 57% of there loan book was still on 2-3% fixed mtge's so i guess that means the carnage is still to come in the next yr or 2 ?

[Baa_Baa]

very bad results meta , google and now amazon down 17% in after market waiting for apple now .... if bad it be a very bad day tomorrow wall st

AAPL beats earnings EPS 1.29 vs 1.26 forecast

[causecelebre]

very bad results meta , google and now amazon down 17% in after market waiting for apple now .... if bad it be a very bad day tomorrow wall st

see anz must be worried about interest rate rises

ANZ New Zealand will soon be increasing its mortgage serviceability interest rate, the rate it tests mortgage applicants' ability to repay at, to above 8%.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/118188/anz-nz-ceo-antonia-watson-says-banks-monitoring-mortgage-borrowers-whose

anz also said 57% of there loan book was still on 2-3% fixed mtge's so i guess that means the carnage is still to come in the next yr or 2 ?

I had a chat to a major bank mortgage lender two days ago and she noted they use 8.15% as the serviceability interest rate and will be bumped to 9% soon. I'm not sure we will see too much carnage in the house market as long as people are working. Those "investors" that are leverage to the eyeballs on interest only will suffer. And there are many of those holding on for a regime change September next year

[JimmyTrade]

I had a chat to a major bank mortgage lender two days ago and she noted they use 8.15% as the serviceability interest rate and will be bumped to 9% soon. I'm not sure we will see too much carnage in the house market as long as people are working. Those "investors" that are leverage to the eyeballs on interest only will suffer. And there are many of those holding on for a regime change September next year

I stress tested my situation with 8% mortgage interest before purchasing my home in the heat of the market in 2021.

At the time was manageable with a borrowing of around four times household income and an LVR of 45% however with inflation in other goods and services we would not be comfortable at all at these interest rates and many peers have much higher LVRs and loan to income ratios.

A lot of disposable income is going to be lost, will be interesting to see the level of correction the RBNZ achieves in the next 6-12 months

[mike2020]

Yes, I read yesterday how landlords are planning on passing on higher costs. That seems counter to yesterdays announcement of surplus new housing.
Also, I just saw BP and Shell made a 16bil profit in the last quarter. Nearly double the same period last year. Off the back of Ukraine. Something seems out of kilter.

[mike2020]

Add to that ANZs profit. Christchurch charging (or trying to) 51 bucks for bus ride to the city for the first cruise visitors in over ten years and it looks a bit like inflation is in a large part corporate opportunism. Take the supermarkets as another example. Surely there will be some sort of backlash at some stage? Is it weak government?

[causecelebre]

Yes, I read yesterday how landlords are planning on passing on higher costs. That seems counter to yesterdays announcement of surplus new housing.
Also, I just saw BP and Shell made a 16bil profit in the last quarter. Nearly double the same period last year. Off the back of Ukraine. Something seems out of kilter.

Company earnings are still strong as the consumer is still working and prepared to pay the costs passed on by the business.

[Bobdn]

https://youtu.be/t6ko6m9LwZo

Mike, It's great to see oil and gas shares doing so well. It's the revenge of the old economy as Jeff Currie says in the clip above.

It just doesn't seem sensible to exclude a whole sector from a passive fund. Unfortunately many NZ kiwisaver funds have done just that.

I've reduced my O&G holdings. Sold XLE for an 86 per cent gain in pretty quick time 2 days ago and recycled the money into VYM which is Vanguards US dividend fund. This I won't touch and it will be part of my holdings for the long haul - it's 10 per cent O&G. VYM hasnt beaten the S&P 500 over time however. Most of my US money is in VOO via Superlife.

When the I feel like it I'll get rid of IXC (a US and international O&G fund) and OIH (oil services eg SLB) and put them into broad index like VTV (Vanguard's value index which has a good amount of O&G) or even VT which has every sector and most world shares covered. Will be pleased to get shot of them - I hate watching the price of oil, it reminds me of my bad old days of investing. If they go higher, that's fine. I've had my fun, and I'll still have exposure to O&G in my ETFs.

It's been a hugely fun 5 per cent tilt, and probably my last tilt. I got lucky pure and simple and don't expect to get lucky again. Most of my tilts haven't worked out over the years.

[mike2020]

Company earnings are still strong as the consumer is still working and prepared to pay the costs passed on by the business.

Maybe they have succumbed to mass hypnosis (again)

How can you be passing on costs and making record profits at the same time?

[BlackPeter]

Maybe they have succumbed to mass hypnosis (again)

How can you be passing on costs and making record profits at the same time?

Easy. Say you used to pay $1b for your product plus cost of sales and overhead per year and you sell it for $2b.

Costs went up by $500m and you charge customers $1b more - i.e. $1.5b costs and $3b revenue.

This way you passed on your higher costs and made at the same time a record profit :t_up:

[alokdhir]

Is Santa Rally in the mix ?? Seasonality at play or market actually bottomed as originally expected mid oct ?

Only time will reveal but if nothing untoward happens then it can only become better ahead for markets maybe not for economies ...but as market has already thought of the worst possibilities and they turn out not that bad then markets will keep doing better and better ahead ...hopefully ...I am with the Bulls since double bottom of mid Oct !!!

[bull....]

Is Santa Rally in the mix ?? Seasonality at play or market actually bottomed as originally expected mid oct ?

Only time will reveal but if nothing untoward happens then it can only become better ahead for markets maybe not for economies ...but as market has already thought of the worst possibilities and they turn out not that bad then markets will keep doing better and better ahead ...hopefully ...I am with the Bulls since double bottom of mid Oct !!!

3600 was a good indicator bottom. if its a true bottom or a bear bounce guess we all will know in hindsight one day
anyway the dow is the standout for the mth crazy performance

[Baa_Baa]

DOW puts in another stunning week (https://invst.ly/zcwnj), bouncing off the 22% decline from high to put in a full 50% retrace on strong above average volume, closing above the 200EMA. Indicators looking toppy here and overhead down-trend resistance line is in play. Look to whether the 200 holds and a breakout or down from the resistance line.

[FTG]

At face value, it has been a 'good week' on US markets. However the underlying indicators are yet to demonstrate any strong market conviction. Bullish sentiment is certainly not reigning on The Street. The underlying health of the market is still far from supreme.

A good case in point is that today's session printed the strongest % daily gain for the week, yet total NYSE daily volume was actually the lowest for the week.

Don't be surprised to see some further momentum taking the S & P into the 4000 zone (over the next 5-10 trading days). But at this stage it continues to display all the characteristics of a classic Bear Market rally. Worthy of cautious optimism, at best!

[alokdhir]

3600 was a good indicator bottom. if its a true bottom or a bear bounce guess we all will know in hindsight one day
anyway the dow is the standout for the mth crazy performance

Signs are its a true bottom as per historical examples ...it had done average 17.6% bounce from bottom in one month as per Guru Mark Lister , when market reverses ...but fundamentals say its still too early as real bad data for the economies is ahead ...is it ? Maybe we will not see typical recession type data for overall markets ...maybe it will be bad for few companies and reasonable for some just like recent Tech results ...Bad for Meta , Amazon etc but ok for Apple , Micro etc

Whats new for this time is exceptional employment data thus inflation wont be tamed easily till they kill the economies harder ...to do that one needs very strong Political Will which will be very difficult to find in our current world environment ....so I will pick slow to flat economies for longer with some lingering inflation till it dies on its own accord ...Central Banks will hesitate to go much further then what we presently foresee ie FED wont go over 5% ...even 5% is ???

75 Bips coming soon to take Fed rate to 4% ...next one will be much more difficult to call ...most likely 25 bips !!!

RBNZ 75 bips ...All say a done deal ...but is it ? ...even if done 75 in Nov then 4.25 % ...after that 25 bips most likely .

So what market is rejoicing at the moment is anticipating end of the rate rise cycle ahead ...which may get busted by real data in 6 months time with inflation still lingering pretty high ...or may not and rally continues ....so now onwards its all real data dependent ...till then 3550- 4100 extended range !!!!

[FTG]

Signs are its a true bottom as per historical examples ...it had done average 17.6% bounce from bottom in one month as per Guru Mark Lister , when market reverses ...but fundamentals say its still too early as real bad data for the economies is ahead ...is it ? Maybe we will not see typical recession type data for overall markets ...maybe it will be bad for few companies and reasonable for some just like recent Tech results ...Bad for Meta , Amazon etc but ok for Apple , Micro etc

Whats new for this time is exceptional employment data thus inflation wont be tamed easily till they kill the economies harder ...to do that one needs very strong Political Will which will be very difficult to find in our current world environment ....so I will pick slow to flat economies for longer with some lingering inflation till it dies on its own accord ...Central Banks will hesitate to go much further then what we presently foresee ie FED wont go over 5% ...even 5% is ???

75 Bips coming soon to take Fed rate to 4% ...next one will be much more difficult to call ...most likely 25 bips !!!

RBNZ 75 bips ...All say a done deal ...but is it ? ...even if done 75 in Nov then 4.25 % ...after that 25 bips most likely .

So what market is rejoicing at the moment is anticipating end of the rate rise cycle ahead ...which may get busted by real data in 6 months time with inflation still lingering pretty high ...or may not and rally continues ....so now onwards its all real data dependent ...till then 3550- 4100 extended range !!!!

Alokdhir, I do love your relentless & eternal optimism on this and many other individual stock threads. Some might say it sometimes crosses the borders into 'ramping territory', but I reckon you should keep it up regardless; especially during these rather 'doom & gloom' times!

[bull....]

At face value, it has been a 'good week' on US markets. However the underlying indicators are yet to demonstrate any strong market conviction. Bullish sentiment is certainly not reigning on The Street. The underlying health of the market is still far from supreme.

A good case in point is that today's session printed the strongest % daily gain for the week, yet total NYSE daily volume was actually the lowest for the week.

Don't be surprised to see some further momentum taking the S & P into the 4000 zone (over the next 5-10 trading days). But at this stage it continues to display all the characteristics of a classic Bear Market rally. Worthy of cautious optimism, at best!

true rally may extend a little longer
longer term im still sticking to my believe ( till proven otherwise) the previous down draft to 3600 was a temporary exhaustion move and now we are in a stage of drawing buyers in to rebalance prior heavily short positioning.
Once the rebalance is complete we will have the energy for the next leg down. that being thru 3600 which im still picking to 3000 on the sp500 as my guess.
fundamentals in equities have still not rebalanced to lower growth expectations next yr so once that occurs will provide energy to the downside as well.

[FTG]

true rally may extend a little longer
longer term im still sticking to my believe ( till proven otherwise) the previous down draft to 3600 was a temporary exhaustion move and now we are in a stage of drawing buyers in to rebalance prior heavily short positioning.
Once the rebalance is complete we will have the energy for the next leg down. that being thru 3600 which im still picking to 3000 on the sp500 as my guess.
fundamentals in equities have still not rebalanced to lower growth expectations next yr so once that occurs will provide energy to the downside as well.


You may well be right Bull. Only time will tell the story huh.

IMO, whatever course the markets chart over the next few weeks & months, it is likely to continue being a bumpy ride.

Volatile markets present truckloads of opportunities for investors & traders who are supremely patient, disciplined and well resourced. On the flip side; for the ill-disciplined, impatient and over leveraged, they can easily find themselves in a 'world of pain'.

[ynot]

true rally may extend a little longer
longer term im still sticking to my believe ( till proven otherwise) the previous down draft to 3600 was a temporary exhaustion move and now we are in a stage of drawing buyers in to rebalance prior heavily short positioning.
Once the rebalance is complete we will have the energy for the next leg down. that being thru 3600 which im still picking to 3000 on the sp500 as my guess.
fundamentals in equities have still not rebalanced to lower growth expectations next yr so once that occurs will provide energy to the downside as well.

I agree. How do you think this trajectory will reflect on the NZ economy next year.

[percy]

Refers to Australian market,however still interesting.

https://livewiremarketsptyltd.cmail19.com/t/j-l-vhtudlk-ydtteyktj-y/

[winner69]

TINA seems to have become a has been and now PATTY is in fashion

Wish Turner's TINA would be a has been

[SailorRob]

'TheFederal Reserve focuses an incredible amount of intellectual firepower and effectively unlimited financialresources at trying to figure out how the economy will evolve in the future, yet their track record of makingaccurate forecasts about the future is dismal. Wall Street firms expend a similarly huge amount of resourcesto predict the economy and yet while various economists will get a big call right from time to time, there islittle evidence that any person or approach to economic forecasting is accurate enough to correctly predictthe timing of recessions with high confidence'.

[JBmurc]

Oz September CPI - Inflation Picks Up The Pace …now 7.3% ..up from 6.1% in Jube

Migh higher thanbexpected …wow

I see because of the massive move higher in interest rates ... many landlords are also lifting rents upwards of the same amount of the rate increased costs as their loans come off record low rates ....locally seen 50-60% increase in rents ....

So guess what CPI Inflation goes even higher .. so rates go higher ...and mass unemployment + mass homelessness seem to be the goal... really from the fault of the policy makers in ivory towers .

Govts/RBNZ pumping the masses to buy 600-800k FHB homes on 5-10% low deposits.. talk about hostile forward setup for the mass FHB market

"Housing rents are used to estimate the change in shelter costs including owner-occupied housing that account for nearly a third of the CPI" !!!!!!!

Its really a self forfilling clusterfk!!

When you have Anti Energy + Anti Export Business Govt + reckless monetary policy +muti lockdowns + FEAR division of the masses +Bi-polar actions from reserve banks+ anti Carbon Energy lobby pushing up costs +WAR hungry military complex..

[bull....]

I agree. How do you think this trajectory will reflect on the NZ economy next year.

slowing , how much time will tell.
was talking to a boat dealer who's been in the business 30yrs was saying things slowed just recently and see signs for his business next yr would be tougher , same applies to car dealers spoken too.

[mike2020]

Not exactly off with a hiss and a roar this morning. I expected some action to the upside but buyers must be weary/wary.

I see most in AUS expecting a .25 rise by the RB this week. Seems quite the contrast to NZ or even the US.

[bull....]

Not exactly off with a hiss and a roar this morning. I expected some action to the upside but buyers must be weary/wary.

I see most in AUS expecting a .25 rise by the RB this week. Seems quite the contrast to NZ or even the US.

up 1% now rally continuing

[bull....]

rba rate announcement this arvo and fed meeting later in week. will fed kill the rally ?

[winner69]

rba rate announcement this arvo and fed meeting later in week. will fed kill the rally ?

RBA evenbworks on Cup day …good on them

Won’t be much of an increase

[bull....]

RBA evenbworks on Cup day …good on them

Won’t be much of an increase

rba expected 25 , surprise 50

[Bjauck]

RBA evenbworks on Cup day …good on them

Won’t be much of an increase
Maybe they will be putting their heads together to place a bet. There are covid debts needed to be paid off!

[mike2020]

rba expected 25 , surprise 50

Will either way affect the nzx?

[winner69]

Guru analysts at Macquarie’s (their quant team) is backing Deauville Legend to win this year’s Melbourne Cup.

[daveypnz]

0.25% increase

[JBmurc]

Guru analysts at Macquarie’s (their quant team) is backing Deauville Legend to win this year’s Melbourne Cup.

I went with #1 ... was a good choice after reading TAB punter recommendations ...

[winner69]

Economists / commentators wrong again

Unemployment rate UNCHANGED …..not down as expected

3.3%

[winner69]

Good to see wages keeping up with inflation …sort off

Average ordinary time hourly earnings in the QES rose 7.4 percent in the year to the September 2022 quarter.

[Muse]

QES private sector hourly wages was +8.6%. I think ANZ had the highest forecast of 8.2%, most others were in the 7-8% range.

Good article on interest.co.nz about ramifications.

IMO RBNZ will concern itself with that much more than unemployment rate staying steady

[winner69]

Jeez …..start of TV news tonight makes out the world is going to end soon . Interest rates blah blah and then 1/2 metre of rain in South Island

Maybe Black Thursday tomorrow

[bull....]

fed lifted rates 75 with a announcement they are data dependant going forward ( markets liked that bit )

[bull....]

well that thru a spanner in the rally powell just said terminal rate is higher now than they said last time

[winner69]

well that thru a spanner in the rally powell just said terminal rate is higher now than they said last time

That dot chart looks interesting ……terminal rate expectations higher and rates not going down much forvacyearvorvso

[winner69]

well that thru a spanner in the rally powell just said terminal rate is higher now than they said last time


The Fed never should have started doing press conferences.

[bull....]

The Fed never should have started doing press conferences.

in the red biggly now , guess nz50 down today

[clip]

End of the bear rally, or just another blip in new upward trend?

[BlackPeter]

End of the bear rally, or just another blip in new upward trend?

Yes - either the one or the other ;) :