Black Monday

[bull....]

Adern or Labour are not the employer. Parliamentary Service is the employer.

she's the boss

[Baa_Baa]

she's the boss

Leader actually, but not employer, keep digging as ‘anyone who follows employment law’ lol

[bull....]

Leader actually, but not employer, keep digging as ‘anyone who follows employment law’ lol

be interesting how it plays out , nobody should be above the law

[mike2020]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/finlands-prime-minister-sanna-marin-seen-partying-in-leaked-video/WBEX2NKYPFZ2XBXASYEFENNVV4/

I say bring back the crusty old men

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/finlands-prime-minister-sanna-marin-seen-partying-in-leaked-video/WBEX2NKYPFZ2XBXASYEFENNVV4/

I say bring back the crusty old men

Go - you girl! So wonderful to see! 🕺💃🏻

[Bobdn]

I see USF.NZX is now 5.5 per cent higher than 12 months ago and just 4 per cent below all time highs.

USV is now at all time highs by the looks of it. So bear market well and truely over for people like me that own these Smartshares products. Sure the low NZD helps but all I care about is the what the bottom line says.

I'm not saying we can't go lower and start all over again, but right now, we're golden.

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-can-cause-brain-disorders-two-years-after-infection-major-study-shows/WUPQG6TNRE3YDLTNH5BUMFSDE4/

Covid can cause brain disorders two years after infection, major study shows
thought the markets were skitzo now

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/adrian-orr-accepts-mortgage-rates-could-fall-next-year/QF5ULUGTCPSC2BW632XWC4HQSI/

[tim23]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-can-cause-brain-disorders-two-years-after-infection-major-study-shows/WUPQG6TNRE3YDLTNH5BUMFSDE4/

Covid can cause brain disorders two years after infection, major study shows
thought the markets were skitzo now
Oh really- has someone got a Crystal Ball?

[Swala]

Oh really- has someone got a Crystal Ball?

Covid's been around for well over two and a half years already.

[winner69]

bubbles typically collapse in not one, but a series of capitulations - each punctuated by a "fast, furious, prone-to failure" recovery


this chart is popular among market historians and doing the rounds at the moment

[alokdhir]

Like we discussed with Hoop ...level of 4800 is not easy to cross this time ...we will end up taking support around 4500 ...hopefully and then reattempt to cross the most important and transformational level of 4800 ....should happen in last qtr of this year .

Lets see if that happens ...ie ending the year over 4800 or ending the year below 4500 !!!

[winner69]

S&P 3500 By Year End If QT Continues

The Fed is not the only game in town, but they are the biggest game in town. While many other factors account for stock price performance, liquidity may be the most important to grasp.


https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-3500-by-year-end-if-qt-continues

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mark-lister-has-the-inflation-worm-turned/KWPA67FKFRRCMSAN3XKWCYM4LQ/

Not all are gloomy ...its becoming better ....so I am pretty hopeful we will end the year higher then where we are at present ....even 12500 possible !!!

[bull....]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mark-lister-has-the-inflation-worm-turned/KWPA67FKFRRCMSAN3XKWCYM4LQ/

Not all are gloomy ...its becoming better ....so I am pretty hopeful we will end the year higher then where we are at present ....even 12500 possible !!!

but the nzx didnt even get over its 50% retracement or 200 d m/a yet

[bull....]

sp500 retreated off 200d last night in an over brought condition though. lets see how it behaves going forward after a strong bounce from lows.



sp 500 heading down nicely off that 200d m/a , us dollar still working , rates heading up again . powell at jackson hole big event this week .... hawkish surely

[alokdhir]

Expected pull back ...almost all expected it thats why its going down so fast as all were ready for this .

Big question is where it will take support eventually ? IMO wont be making new low ...so we may have a shallow pull back and another attempt at 200DMA or a little deeper pull back and make bigger cycle higher low then before
Only time will tell

[bull....]

Expected pull back ...almost all expected it thats why its going down so fast as all were ready for this .

Big question is where it will take support eventually ? IMO wont be making new low ...so we may have a shallow pull back and another attempt at 200DMA or a little deeper pull back and make bigger cycle higher low then before
Only time will tell

you wont be happy to hear saudi not happy with oil price fall , they might want to cut production to ramp price higher :scared: higher inflation again

[peat]

IMO wont be making new low ...

yeh thats what I'm thinkin.... I'm seeing bullish patterns on lots of charts. But I dont think equities are ready for a new bull market yet, it will more likely find a new level higher than here and do some consolidation around that level

[alokdhir]

yeh thats what I'm thinkin.... I'm seeing bullish patterns on lots of charts. But I dont think equities are ready for a new bull market yet, it will more likely find a new level higher than here and do some consolidation around that level

Agree fully ...as conditions not right for new bull market ....but not that bad to make new lows ...so range trading till conditions improve .

My guess is 11400 -12200 or 11700 -12500 ....slowly slowly it will shift upwards while doing waves ...

[bull....]

i was just talking about saudi not happy with oil prices yesterday and what ya know big rally in oil last night. looks like it might be attempting to put in a bottom from the decline from 120 odd to 86. funny thing is oil has fallen on recession fears to where it is now , whats going to happen when everyone thinks there wont be a recession :scared: wow oil sky rocketing again along with inflation. someone wont be happy

[bull....]

bad news in nz today

Small business sales drop to lowest level since September 2021

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/prosper/129677308/small-business-sales-drop-to-lowest-level-since-september-2021

New Zealand Retail Sales Sink 2.3% On Quarter In Q2
https://www.rttnews.com/3307238/new-zealand-retail-sales-sink-2-3-on-quarter-in-q2.aspx

[bull....]

Economists surprised by fall in retail spending in the June quarter, which raises the possibility the country may have gone into a technical recession in the first half of the year

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/117341/economists-surprised-fall-retail-spending-june-quarter-which-raises-possibility

havn't even seen the effect of mtg increases yet on people finances :scared:

[NeverQuestion]

i was just talking about saudi not happy with oil prices yesterday and what ya know big rally in oil last night. looks like it might be attempting to put in a bottom from the decline from 120 odd to 86. funny thing is oil has fallen on recession fears to where it is now , whats going to happen when everyone thinks there wont be a recession :scared: wow oil sky rocketing again along with inflation. someone wont be happy

If the Oil skyrockets again then I wouldnt be surprised if Iran gets to sell their oil on the international market... Saudis can say no to higher production output, but it will just end up hurting them in the long run

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-hasnt-been-bad-for-everyone-companies-are-producing-outsized-profits-11661455321?mod=mw_latestnews

This should answer why markets are not tanking as per many's wish

[bull....]

big jackson hole powell speech tomorrow morning will set the scene for next week. orr was interviewed on bloomberg earlier this morning on NZ trajectory.

[bull....]

sp 500 heading down nicely off that 200d m/a , us dollar still working , rates heading up again . powell at jackson hole big event this week .... hawkish surely

wow powell hit the mark , markets big fall on the news

“While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses,” he said in prepared remarks. “These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/26/powell-warns-of-some-pain-ahead-as-fed-fights-to-lower-inflation.html

[Ricky-bobby]

September/October will be very interesting…. Recession here we come.

[Old mate]

No mincing of the words there bull. Big drop today.

[winner69]

No worries in NZ ….Adrian told his buddies at Jackson Hole NZ sorted and under control.

If he could ‘print people’ we’d be on fire

[Muse]

No worries in NZ ….Adrian told his buddies at Jackson Hole NZ sorted and under control.

If he could ‘print people’ we’d be on fire

Aye all is hunky dory. Adrian probably should have gone after powell. I noticed 10 yr treasury yields started on their journey back up to close to 4% - up over 50bps in the last few weeks.

[winner69]

Aye all is hunky dory. Adrian probably should have gone after powell. I noticed 10 yr treasury yields started on their journey back up to close to 4% - up over 50bps in the last few weeks.

And listed property didn’t do too well last week in nz

[alokdhir]

No worries in NZ ….Adrian told his buddies at Jackson Hole NZ sorted and under control.

If he could ‘print people’ we’d be on fire

He is right and so are u ...NZX is going to outperform USA markets from now onwards ...We sure will try to follow them initially but eventually difference will start showing ....

NZ economy under much better control of RBNZ then USA ....Only problem will be NZD as different rates outlook of USA and NZ will surely tank NZD

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-25/rbnz-s-orr-signals-aggressive-tightening-cycle-may-be-near-end

[workingdad]

The FED has made it clear, they will keep hiking to get on top of inflation. RBNZ will do the same. There is pain yet to be felt with the usual lag. Interesting times ahead

[Bobdn]

Its a nasty business. Governments' (which all central banks are of course apart of) have caused a firestorm of inflation and now have to potentially crash the economy to achieve price stability.

But Governments don't like crashing the economy as a general rule.

Everyone is on one side of the boat just now.

[bull....]

If the Oil skyrockets again then I wouldnt be surprised if Iran gets to sell their oil on the international market... Saudis can say no to higher production output, but it will just end up hurting them in the long run

iran probably smuggling oil out already ..... maybe by camel ? anyway i see oil big jump last night.

[JBmurc]

big jackson hole powell speech tomorrow morning will set the scene for next week. orr was interviewed on bloomberg earlier this morning on NZ trajectory.

NZ trajectory down down down >>>>northern hemi winter is going jack up international oil prices towards $150bbl .. NZD/USD will break well into the 50c 's ... all western economies run on cheap energy ... we will continue to import inflation... and see RBNZ kick kiwis with ever increasing lending rates ...


OPEC PRESIDENT IS OPEN TO CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION

CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR AN IDEA FIRST PROPOSED BY SAUDI ARABIA

Commodity producers in charge..... net buyers wanting lower inflation not so good >>>

[bull....]

NZ trajectory down down down >>>>northern hemi winter is going jack up international oil prices towards $150bbl .. NZD/USD will break well into the 50c 's ... all western economies run on cheap energy ... we will continue to import inflation... and see RBNZ kick kiwis with ever increasing lending rates ...


OPEC PRESIDENT IS OPEN TO CUTTING OIL PRODUCTION

CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR AN IDEA FIRST PROPOSED BY SAUDI ARABIA

Commodity producers in charge..... net buyers wanting lower inflation not so good >>>

your right i think some on here missed orr point he said he would keep hiking till data says otherwise just like powell reinforced

commodities type stocks done well this yr ... coal , uranium , oil , lithium etc etc . imagine when we come out of recession lol. too the moon.

[JBmurc]

your right i think some on here missed orr point he said he would keep hiking till data says otherwise just like powell reinforced

commodities type stocks done well this yr ... coal , uranium , oil , lithium etc etc . imagine when we come out of recession lol. too the moon.

Yes and the fact we continue down the insane zero carbon route we will need the largest investment in mineral mining of the earth ever seen ... just one generation without Carbon bases fuels we would need to have a five fold increase in all known Copper reserves ... 10x Fold increase in Nickel / Lithium ...

[bull....]

mthly reversals on the charts starting to reinforce the belief we will retest the lows at some stage and maybe go even lower as earnings come down.

[winner69]

Beveridge Curve implies no hard landing in US …just tough times ahead

[bull....]

Beveridge Curve implies no hard landing in US …just tough times ahead

companies will start slashing jobs soon to protect there bottom lines. should help with the beverage curve and indeed tougher times coming

[bull....]

'Tax grab': Government plans to levy GST of $225 million each year on KiwiSaver

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129728101/tax-grab-government-plans-to-levy-gst-of-225-million-each-year-on-kiwisaver

politicians just cant help pinching from the lolly jar

[Sideshow Bob]

'Tax grab': Government plans to levy GST of $225 million each year on KiwiSaver

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129728101/tax-grab-government-plans-to-levy-gst-of-225-million-each-year-on-kiwisaver

politicians just cant help pinching from the lolly jar

I heard they were going to levy GST on to Uber and AirBNB, which is fair enough, as they shouldn't be exempt.

GST on Kiwisaver is a little more cynical. However they have to fund their spending from somewhere, and higher earners with higher balances, paying higher fees will pay the lions share. Seems like an easy source, but likely to get some kickback....

[850man]

I heard they were going to levy GST on to Uber and AirBNB, which is fair enough, as they shouldn't be exempt.

GST on Kiwisaver is a little more cynical. However they have to fund their spending from somewhere, and higher earners with higher balances, paying higher fees will pay the lions share. Seems like an easy source, but likely to get some kickback....

We can only hope the kickback occurs in 12 months time and the spend thrift Socialists are gone and we can start rebuilding

[bull....]

govt u turned on the kiwisaver tax pretty quick following the backlash.

[dobby41]

govt u turned on the kiwisaver tax pretty quick following the backlash.

Good on them - shows that they are listening!

[850man]

Good on them - shows that they are listening!
Like they couldn't work out in advance this would go down like a cup of cold sick with every Kiwisaver. Stoned on their Socialist ideology, they have lost touch with reality

[bull....]

Good on them - shows that they are listening!

listening to the poll's

[Joshuatree]

Quite the contrary they have the flexibility to hear and respond quickly,that's the govt we need.

[bull....]

Like they couldn't work out in advance this would go down like a cup of cold sick with every Kiwisaver. Stoned on their Socialist ideology, they have lost touch with reality

exactly how dumb is it to disincentivize saving for retirement

[mike2020]

Quite the contrary they have the flexibility to hear and respond quickly,that's the govt we need.

Where have you been? They have been planning this behind closed doors for months and as soon as it hits the headlines they run for cover. Clueless. The most hyped/ least action govt nz has ever experienced. Planning to remove 20k from the average persons retirement fund? If pensions do end up means tested (I bet they do) then it is a shortsighted own goal at best.

At worst its another tax grab to cover needless and directionless spending.

[Old mate]

When National got in, in 2009 they changed the rules to suit their mates who donated to them. My employer’s contribution dropped to 2%, and they taxed it. So instead of getting 4% from my employer I was getting a net 1.34%.

Not that I really like either party. But it has been done before.

[dabsman]

When National got in, in 2009 they changed the rules to suit their mates who donated to them. My employer’s contribution dropped to 2%, and they taxed it. So instead of getting 4% from my employer I was getting a net 1.34%.

Not that I really like either party. But it has been done before.

I think minimum employer contribution is 3% so I'd take them to the ERA and get your missing funds and a big dose of mental stress payments ;)

[Old mate]

Got put back up again to 3 % after that cut.

[bull....]

markets had been pricing in rate cuts next yr , was part of the reason for the recent rally. markets adjusting now to reality ?

Fed’s Mester sees benchmark rate above 4% and no cuts at least through 2023


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/31/feds-mester-sees-benchmark-rate-above-4percent-and-no-cuts-at-least-through-2023.html

most markets experienced mthly reversals on the charts to finish near lows for the mth.

sept usually poor for positive returns
oct not so good for returns and associated with crashes

so next two mths be interesting

[Bob50]

September/October are said to be poor months - even more so in MidTerm election years- which this year is. This video’s graph at 2.54 compares a usual year with a midterm one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1QT3Q5Oncg&t=331s

[alokdhir]

Overall picture is that market sentiment is following similar pattern ...June over bearishness and it over did everything ....including stocks and bonds and oil and commodities etc ....then sentiment changed on the other side and it over did bullishness in August .

Now we will reverse and try to find a more suitable range to move sideways for a while ...thats best outcome ....but as sentiment is bouncing around like a ball ...it will need few dampening waves to find present day right levels ....

Normally markets bottom out by mid October ....so I do expect that again to happen but have my eyes wide open ..

We should not make new lows ....thats important criteria for bottom to be formed ...it should be higher then last time and then we make higher top in next 3-6 months to fully negate bearishness

Lets c how it pans out . Normally USA markets bottom before the end of FED cycle ...4% is just round the corner ...so bottom is also just round the corner

4% for long depends upon data ...for how long ? That depends upon resilience of economy and households finances ...my estimate is 6 months will do after it reaches 4%

Similar story in NZ ...rather our Gov clearly told in bloomer berg interview that we have a couple of hikes left ...then its wait and watch ....Oct and Nov ...50 bps each should do it for RBNZ ...then look for dovishness in 3-6 months ahead ...Picking 25 bps drop before June 2023

[bull....]

September/October are said to be poor months - even more so in MidTerm election years- which this year is. This video’s graph at 2.54 compares a usual year with a midterm one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1QT3Q5Oncg&t=331s

interesting video bob , always enjoy stats on the market

[bull....]

interestly the 10yr in the US closed the mth at a new high ( mthly ) same as NZ , aus . just goes to show the 10yr or rates in general are still moving higher

[bull....]

latest from Grantham

ENTERING THE SUPERBUBBLE’S FINAL ACT

By Jeremy Grantham

Executive Summary

Only a few market events in an investor’s career really matter, and among the most important of all are superbubbles. 1 These superbubbles are events unlike any others: while there are only a few in history for investors to study, they have clear features in common.
One of those features is the bear market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst. This in all three previous cases recovered over half the market’s initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer’s rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern.

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/entering-the-superbubbles-final-act/

[causecelebre]

Haha even that permabear Grantham will get it right at least once

[Aaron]

Haha even that permabear Grantham will get it right at least once

He has got it right quite a few times I understand, he admits though that he has been too early on occasion. Japan 1989, Tech Bubble, Housing Bubble. So not bad at spotting super bubbles I would say. he has been pretty successful over many years which would not be possible if he was a permabear.

But you might know more about him than I do.

[winner69]

BREAKING: Ship runs aground in the Suez Canal

[Sideshow Bob]

BREAKING: Ship runs aground in the Suez Canal

Can't be important not on the front page of Stuff. But the AB's have retained the same 15 for the 2nd test................:p

[percy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/africa/300676492/ship-runs-aground-briefly-blocking-suez-canal--spokesperson

[winner69]

Can't be important not on the front page of Stuff. But the AB's have retained the same 15 for the 2nd test................:p

..... and the TAB think the game is all over - ABs at $1.30

[dobby41]

BREAKING: Ship runs aground in the Suez Canal

5 hours - maybe not a big deal?

[alokdhir]

NZX has started showing its resilience vs other markets ...as our economy / rates outlook / inflation outlook is far better then others

[bull....]

NZX has started showing its resilience vs other markets ...as our economy / rates outlook / inflation outlook is far better then others

i agree the nzx is holding up better than others at the moment , if it continues that way who knows. I dont necessary agree with your other statements.

US 10 yr back up 3.26 today probably going new highs just like the nz 10 yr
inflation may not have even peaked in nz yet , if it has it's not coming down in a hurry with all that nz dollar imported inflation to roll thru
our economy is dependant on global trade etc as we are a trading nation so plenty of risks in that dept going forward

[bull....]

see oil getting smashed on the china lockdown of mega city

China Locks Down Megacity Chengdu as Covid Zero Intensifies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-01/china-locks-down-western-megacity-chengdu-as-covid-zero-rolls-on

more supply issue's coming

[alokdhir]

Either the commodities market is getting it right by revisiting previous lows like Oil and copper etc or the Bond market is totally wrong at the moment and we will see sharp correction upwards in bond prices . U cant be predicting deep recession ahead like commodities are doing and with long term rates being so high

Its a crazy crazy world at the moment ....months of price action is happening in few days ...S&P from 4300 to 3900 in few days also 10 year yield from 2.80 to 3.27

NZX is a safe place ...we went down only 2% compared to 11% of USA !!

[Old mate]

Unreal that china are still chasing zero covid given where the rest of the world is at now.:ohmy:

[alokdhir]

Unreal that china are still chasing zero covid given where the rest of the world is at now.:ohmy:

Its based on resistant to accepting defeat and also acknowledgement that their own made vaccines are not effective at all .

They will not accept western vaccines better so refuse to use them

But knowing the uselessness of their own ...they have no choice but to still try to control outbreaks old fashioned way ...lockdowns ...they call it. " Static Management "

Now they are trying to develop their own mRNA type vaccines ...trials going on

In the meanwhile their static management tactics is causing huge pain to normal people ...alienating local population further ...but top leadership dont care

U cant have NZ parliament seize type protests there ....last was tried in 1989 ...and people still scared of the results of that !!!!

[Snoopy]

Its based on resistant to accepting defeat and also acknowledgement that their own made vaccines are not effective at all .

They will not accept western vaccines better so refuse to use them

But knowing the uselessness of their own ...they have no choice but to still try to control outbreaks old fashioned way ...lockdowns ...they call it. " Static Management "


None of the vaccinations (Pfizer BNT162b2 or otherwise) are effective at stopping people catching Covid-19 Omicron - that much is true. But vaccinating against severe illness is more promising for the Chinese designed vaccines.

This Singaporean overview study was published barely a week ago.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2795654

Two inactivated virus vaccines were looked at: CoronaVac (Sinovac) or BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm)

3 doses of Pfizer vaccine

"Excluding mRNA vaccine combinations (Singapore has used both the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines so this finding is applicable to those vaccine recipients who received three doses of the same mRNA vaccine only), the estimated booster effectiveness against severe COVID-19 15 to 60 days after 3-dose mRNA vaccination was 87.4% (95% CI, 83.3% to 90.5%) 15 to 60 days after boosting and 87.2% (95% CI, 84.2% to 89.7%) 5 to 6 months after boosting."

3 doses of Inactivated Virus vaccine

"Estimated booster effectiveness against severe COVID-19 15 to 330 days (11 months) after 3-dose inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was 69.6% (95% CI, 48.7% to 81.9%)."


Trial Notes

1/ The Inactivated Virus data covered a period of up to 11 months after the third shot was received verses only 6 months after the Pfizer vaccine was received.
2/ The study period concluded on 10th March 2022. That means this data relates to the BA1 Omicron wave.

--------------

So ostensibly the Inactivated Virus Vaccine is effective against severe Covid-19 infection, but not as effective as the Pfizer vaccine. However, there is no data on how effective the Pfizer vaccine is after 11 months. That information will be needed to make a truly comparable comparison with the Inactivated virus vaccines.

SNOOPY

[ynot]

I suspect the Pfizer effectiveness 11 months after will be minimal. Therein lies a potential problem.

[causecelebre]

He has got it right quite a few times I understand, he admits though that he has been too early on occasion. Japan 1989, Tech Bubble, Housing Bubble. So not bad at spotting super bubbles I would say. he has been pretty successful over many years which would not be possible if he was a permabear.

But you might know more about him than I do.

It was a tongue in cheek comment. Anyone with circa $70b in AUM must have a clue. However, it is a cry-wolf case. His most high profile calls that didn't age well include 2010 calling out the fed for creating a bubble and subsequently watch the S&P grow 260%. Or, Jan 2018 calling the top and watching the S&P grow another 60%. His most recent was his bubble warnings in June 2020 and Jan 2021. Even a stopped clock is right twice

[winner69]

Both import and export prices lifted in June quarter, but import prices up 6.5%, outpacing the 3.7% increase in
export prices.

NZ terms of trade worse off

[percy]

https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-fuljdlt-yupddjlly-c/

[bull....]

big reversals down after being up heaps after payrolls

Dow erases a 370-point gain to trade lower, on track for third straight weekly loss


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/01/stock-futures-are-flat-ahead-of-key-august-jobs-report-due-friday.html


Summers Discounts Rise in Labor Force, Sees 6% Unemployment Risk


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/summers-discounts-rise-in-labor-force-sees-6-unemployment-risk?srnd=premium-asia


by the way watch bitcoin i reckon a break down below 19k will unleash more selling in equities again

[winner69]

Read this today …I think investors stuffed in the short and nearvterm.

The fallacy of global crises

Humans like to believe that global shocks happen with some degree of order or predictability. But that, Ferguson said, is a fallacy.

In fact, rather than being evenly spread throughout history, like a bell curve, disasters tend to happen non-linearly and all at once, he said.

“The distributions in history really aren’t normal, particularly when it comes to things like wars and financial crises or, for that matter, pandemics,” said Ferguson.

“You start with a plague — or something we don’t see very often, a really large global pandemic — which kills millions of people and disrupts the economy in all kinds of ways. Then you hit it with a big monetary and fiscal policy shock. And then you add the geopolitical shock.”

That miscalculation leads humans to be overly optimistic and, ultimately, unprepared to handle major crises, he said.

“In their heads, the world is kind of a bunch of averages, and there aren’t likely to be really bad outcomes. This leads people ... to be somewhat overoptimistic,” he said.

As an example, Ferguson said he surveyed attendees at Ambrosetti — a forum in Italy attended by political leaders and the business elite — and found low single-digit percentages expect to see a decline in investment in Italy over the coming months.

“This is a country that’s heading towards a recession,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/1970s-inflation-historian-niall-ferguson-has-a-warning-for-investors.html

[alokdhir]

S&P down from 4300 to almost 3900 very fast ...so market will look for reasons to bounce which will surely fail ....but breaking of 3900 will open flood gates towards recent lows of 3637 ....

While NZX is sitting pretty still over 11600 ....maybe good results and relatively better rates outlook is keeping it well cushioned . Lets watch if it trys to follow S&P down ...though imo NZX will outperform S&P 500 in the short term due to better fundamentals

11400-11200 will be levels to watch and look for

Last act of this Bear market will unfold in next 45 days ...capitulation has not happened ...maybe something will happen for that to happen ...I am waiting for it

[bullfrog]

Read this today …I think investors stuffed in the short and nearvterm.

The fallacy of global crises

Humans like to believe that global shocks happen with some degree of order or predictability. But that, Ferguson said, is a fallacy.

In fact, rather than being evenly spread throughout history, like a bell curve, disasters tend to happen non-linearly and all at once, he said.

“The distributions in history really aren’t normal, particularly when it comes to things like wars and financial crises or, for that matter, pandemics,” said Ferguson.

“You start with a plague — or something we don’t see very often, a really large global pandemic — which kills millions of people and disrupts the economy in all kinds of ways. Then you hit it with a big monetary and fiscal policy shock. And then you add the geopolitical shock.”

That miscalculation leads humans to be overly optimistic and, ultimately, unprepared to handle major crises, he said.

“In their heads, the world is kind of a bunch of averages, and there aren’t likely to be really bad outcomes. This leads people ... to be somewhat overoptimistic,” he said.

As an example, Ferguson said he surveyed attendees at Ambrosetti — a forum in Italy attended by political leaders and the business elite — and found low single-digit percentages expect to see a decline in investment in Italy over the coming months.

“This is a country that’s heading towards a recession,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/1970s-inflation-historian-niall-ferguson-has-a-warning-for-investors.html

hack job from a fellow at Stanford who is required to release books and get his name out there, so he’ll get research funding for his next project.

Nevertheless he’s got some good points, but misses out climate change risks to food and energy, human geography migrations and political instability… so it’s much much worse than the 70’s … ha. Doom - the politics of catastrophe, nice title.

[Crypto Crude]

Massive massive bear market brewing...
Climate change movement will lead to blackouts and power outages .... power prices are up 500% in Europe...
Food crisis is brewing with food supply lines being cut...
Next year will be chaos imo

[alokdhir]

Massive massive bear market brewing...
Climate change movement will lead to blackouts and power outages .... power prices are up 500% in Europe...
Food crisis is brewing with food supply lines being cut...
Next year will be chaos imo

Europe will be epicentre of trouble ...NZ will have minimal affect ...maybe it will benefit in many ways from chaos in Europe ...As NZ is a very small and insulated country with GDP equal or less then any big city of Europe ...NZ can do bumper business in supplying high quality food and wines etc to still some insanely rich people of Europe ...imo

Our energy sector is much more self reliant ....

I will be very vary of European markets ....NZ / AUS / USA / Asian markets will be alright in that order

[850man]

...NZ can do bumper business in supplying high quality food and wines etc to still some insanely rich people of Europe ...imo
We could if our primary food industries were not so short of staff to harvest fruit and vegetables and our farmers were not kneecapped by the greenies. Opportunities lost here.

[LEMON]

Absolute chaos USA is in a debt spiral and with a 2 trillion dollar deficit to turnover, who will be buying that, print print print, IMO expecting 4% interest rates by NOV until they get inflation back down and more job losses to start the magic money machine, maybe no pivot this year, maybe early 2023

EU is in a much worse situation being made worse by the energy crisis, protests are everywhere, the FIAT monopoly game is breaking, the EU already starting to print to "reduce" inflation and large economies having to prop up falling EU countries

China is prolonging its lockdowns and further adding shock to supply chains, along with a crippling housing market

UK energy bills up 500%, food almost double in price, more price increases expected, 60% of factories reporting possible bankruptcy

Ripple effect across global economies

Emerging markets and small developing countries are going to get screwed

[LEMON]

Another interesting point is an analysis pointed out as many retail is still in green from the Covid stimulus and stock market gains of 2021 and the housing markets not bottomed, a theory - retail has still not capitulated yet, so expect lower lows

[bull....]

looks like people back from US holiday and want to sell. nz50 still defying gravity ( if you look at a comparison chart of nz50 vrs say dji divergence has appeared between two markets ) ... lala land stuff guess it takes a while down under to get the message because as we know nz50 in reality cannot defy gravity for ever.

wow bonds US screaming higher :scared: guess nz bonds will hit new highs soon ... at least the safe haven US dollar is still working earning us a nice return why the kiwi dollar plumbs new lows as we wait to pick the bones one day

as we said last friday watch bitcoin for a test of support soon , today we are getting the test of 19k support lets see if it holds breakdown could be savage ?

[alokdhir]

IMO ...the last hurrah of Bears is coming soon .....timing is also perfect ...Bear markets normally last 10 months ...so from mid October when full doom and gloom will be actually happening markets will start going up and up as they saw this 6 months before now they will see something totally different 6 months ahead ...:cool:

[bull....]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0df5E-uUKI

[bull....]

China going full monty - no wonder everything starting to tank


More than 70 Chinese cities have been placed under full or partial Covid lockdowns since late August, impacting more than 300 million people, as local authorities rush to stamp out infections at all cost in the final countdown (https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/china/china-20th-party-congress-countdown-intl-hnk/index.html) to leader Xi Jinping's expected third term.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/05/china/china-covid-lockdown-74-cities-intl-hnk/index.html

[blackcap]

As Peter Zeihan says, China are screwed. They have a lot of problems. The problem is if China is screwed, we will also be screwed by the contagion.

[bull....]

As Peter Zeihan says, China are screwed. They have a lot of problems. The problem is if China is screwed, we will also be screwed by the contagion.

and europe
lucky we sell food.
our exports will be stuffed if everyone starts eating less to save money to pay other bills though

[alokdhir]

NZD below 0.60 for the first time in this year or maybe many !!!

[winner69]

NZD below 0.60 for the first time in this year or maybe many !!!

Yes it is - just a sign that the NZ economy is stuffed even though most punters don't want to acknowledge that

Not as bad as the turn of the century when it went in the 30's for a while ..... that was exciting

Might get into the 40's this time round

[alokdhir]

Yes it is - just a sign that the NZ economy is stuffed even though most punters don't want to acknowledge that

Not as bad as the turn of the century when it went in the 40's for a while ..... that was exciting

For me ...or IMHO its the surest sign of end game ...NZD around 0.55 will surely help rebalance the economy towards productive side like it always did ...

I am sure u remember that NZD doesn't stay below 0.60 for long ...so lets hope this time also it brings good times back ...lol

[winner69]

For me ...or IMHO its the surest sign of end game ...NZD around 0.55 will surely help rebalance the economy towards productive side like it always did ...

I am sure u remember that NZD doesn't stay below 0.60 for long ...so lets hope this time also it brings good times back ...lol

Our terms of trade and trade deficits are pretty shocking at the moment

[bull....]

all the nzd doing going lower is making inflation worse ..... higher rates for longer and longer

[winner69]

Alokdhir ..I see 10 year govt over 4% again

Wonder if it will head back to 6% odd like it did in GFC

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=winner69;974198]Alokdhir ..I see 10 year govt over 4% again

Wonder if it will head back to 6% odd like it did in GFC[/QUOTE

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bad-news-for-stocks-fed-will-be-surprised-how-hard-rate-hikes-hit-economy-says-blackrock-11662494101?mod=home-page

GFC was a different matter and it was handled very poorly by Central Banks ....at that time if they had provided liquidity to totally frozen financial markets then it would have been a much easier problem to handle ...they let it become very big ...when one big tree caught fire ...they let all others also burn before trying to help ....unlike Covid times ...all Central Banks took decisive prompt action ....which helped world recover fast from much bigger disaster possibility ...this inflation is much easier to tackle then what would have happened if Central banks had not done what they did in 2020 .

Also GFC debt levels were much lower then now ...now even 4% will work like 8% of 2007-08 !!!

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir ..I see 10 year govt over 4% again

Wonder if it will head back to 6% odd like it did in GFC

Many things have reached almost June low levels like Bond prices and NZD etc but not stocks and copper ...Oil surely is coming down every day but not Copper

If Copper has bottommed already at 3.13 then we all know stocks have also bottomed ....Hoop's wisdom ...I am watching Dr Copper ...its much above 3.13 levels

[bull....]

nice bounce from oversold conditions. powell speaks tomorrow

[alokdhir]

Strong rebound from S&P 500 3900 levels ....lets c how long it lasts in Bull's lala land ...lol

3900 is key for the time being ....break of 3900 should open the path to retest of June lows ...so I hope it holds

Oil surely done its dash for this time ...Oil is also leading indicator of slower economies ahead leading to lower inflation

Its easy to see market sentiment yo-yoing between hope and doom ...while reality is somewhere in between ...so yields will yield lower ...rates have also done their dash ...

Most likely what our Gov Orr said in Bloomberg interview will happen ..." Two more hikes ie to 4% then wait and watch for few months " ..ie till March 2023 ...then bias will become dovish with RBNZ expected to be first to lower rates by 25 bps before May 20223 ....its a long term forecast ...lot can change but at present its very feasible option

[bull....]

Strong rebound from S&P 500 3900 levels ....lets c how long it lasts in Bull's lala land ...lol

3900 is key for the time being ....break of 3900 should open the path to retest of June lows ...so I hope it holds

Oil surely done its dash for this time ...Oil is also leading indicator of slower economies ahead leading to lower inflation

Its easy to see market sentiment yo-yoing between hope and doom ...while reality is somewhere in between ...so yields will yield lower ...rates have also done their dash ...

Most likely what our Gov Orr said in Bloomberg interview will happen ..." Two more hikes ie to 4% then wait and watch for few months " ..ie till March 2023 ...then bias will become dovish with RBNZ expected to be first to lower rates by 25 bps before May 20223 ....its a long term forecast ...lot can change but at present its very feasible option

agree around 3900 is a line in the sand for now but im in the camp it will fold and lows will be in play again at some stage. takes time for rate hikes to feed thru to earnings contraction

[alokdhir]

agree around 3900 is a line in the sand for now but im in the camp it will fold and lows will be in play again at some stage. takes time for rate hikes to feed thru to earnings contraction

Here u are underestimating the market's forward looking abilities ...they fully understand what u saying and have taken into account . As it will feed thru earnings when recessions will be full on at that time markets will be pricing in better times ahead ....markets have seen many such cycles

Only problem will be it doesn't play as per past playbook ...10% chance of that ....as its a medium term scene .

Oil's SP is showing its playing as per past ...Oil peaked as its a leading indicator of inflation now its very bearish as its still leading indicator of recessions ahead or at least very anaemic growths ....Only biggest difference this time is record employment rates ...that makes me think rates can stay higher for little longer then usual but will not go higher then normal . But that can change when rates take effect as its too high too fast ...give them 6 months u will see unemployment creeping up and giving govts and central banks nightmares

[winner69]

This blew somebody’s mind and put hair on his back

Last week, institutional traders bought $8.1 billion worth of put options. They bought less than $1 billion in calls. This is 3x more extreme than 2008.

Suppose he interpreted it as indicator the‘experts’ think the US market is going to head down.

[winner69]

Alokdhir …. What’ll happen to NZ if the the situation in Europe is much worse than we think - like they could be on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households,…. and thus on the brink of the collapse of their economies.

We won’t be able to avoid the carnage will we

[alokdhir]

This blew somebody’s mind and put hair on his back

Last week, institutional traders bought $8.1 billion worth of put options. They bought less than $1 billion in calls. This is 3x more extreme than 2008.

Suppose he interpreted it as indicator the‘experts’ think the US market is going to head down.

So much put buying has made the market resilient ...thats why I think it will not tank

Also institutional buy puts as insurance of their long positions ...those are not naked puts or naked shorts

Normally after a huge rally and in worst period historically ...institutions spent money to buy insurance as puts ...they didnt sell their stocks

I interpret it as prudent and market supporting data not negative

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir …. What’ll happen to NZ if the the situation in Europe is much worse than we think - like they could be on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households,…. and thus on the brink of the collapse of their economies.

We won’t be able to avoid the carnage will we

Situation is Europe is bad ...but mother of all markets is USA not Europe ...Did Greek crisis or Italian or Spanish cause any collapse ...Germany is too strong to be in trouble as they are super productive economy unlike I named

I wont be too much worried about European troubles causing worldwide financial crisis ....USA is a different story ...Europe can cause minor trouble to USA thus to world

[Balance]

Alokdhir …. What’ll happen to NZ if the the situation in Europe is much worse than we think - like they could be on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households,…. and thus on the brink of the collapse of their economies.

We won’t be able to avoid the carnage will we

The West has plenty of capacity to lower its very high standard of living short term without carnage. Question of leadership which currently appears to be focus and steadfast.

Obviously not so third world or developing countries where their population are already surviving at a subsistence level. But their plight is not going to impact the global economy.

[LEMON]

Would you be willing to lower your living standards because your institutions and governments created massive wealth gaps from the creation of debt and began jamming it down the face of the public and private sectors during lockdowns
Now they need to balance the sheets and destroy demand the rates must go up and the cost of living, lucky for those closest to the money machine, not so good for those who now need to lower their living standards because they were forced to close businesses, take out debt and stay inside

[Balance]

Would you be willing to lower your living standards because your institutions and governments created massive wealth gaps from the creation of debt and began jamming it down the face of the public and private sectors during lockdowns
Now they need to balance the sheets and destroy demand the rates must go up and the cost of living, lucky for those closest to the money machine, not so good for those who now need to lower their living standards because they were forced to close businesses, take out debt and stay inside

What’s the alternative?

I cannot see any myself.

Governments make decisions which affect us all - up to each of us to make the best of what has been decided. And vote smartly when it’s time to vote.

[LEMON]

No alternative, only to wait till things begin to break (energy crisis, civil unrest) and then fire up the magic money machine, debase the Euro, the wealth gap grows bigger, demand a new regime change from the people, new regime breaks away from the European Union, weak European countries adopt the US dollar alongside their weak currency, the Milkshake theory is in play
Note - not everyone wants a US dollar and wants to move away from it and transact with hard commodities and their own currency, and as states then become more independent and less global, privatisation of land and energy grids

Or

CBDC (central bank digital currency) where governments take control and monitor your daily transactions that allow the creation of money, that can then be manipulated by accessing and blocking daily transactions from the civilians and if you don't like it or try to rebel then you will be censored and cancelled then be forced into poverty, so be good boys and girls as your transaction will dictate your social credit

Who really knows though, history never repeats but it does rhyme and I do love me some monetary history

[LEMON]

''The economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real and hard assets''.

Vladimir Putin, September 2022

Macrocompass - on Putins energy war with Europe, give it a listen, only 13minutes

https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war?utm_source=podcast-email&utm_medium=email#details

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-investors-are-favoring-large-cap-stocks-for-the-rest-of-2022-maybe-you-should-too-11662737872?mod=home-page

Big caps will always lead the rally ....they have already started moving up !!

[winner69]

As Jonathan Livingston Seagull said, "If you love something in a bubble, set it free. If you get cash flow back, it's yours. If the market cap collapses, it never was."

Don’t know what means but it’s rather sweet

[SailorRob]

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge

[ronaldson]

Beautifully written article that should be required reading. Thanks to SR for posting.

[winner69]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/big-investors-are-favoring-large-cap-stocks-for-the-rest-of-2022-maybe-you-should-too-11662737872?mod=home-page

Big caps will always lead the rally ....they have already started moving up !!

So the big boys don't buy large cap because they are great companies or anything like that ..... do it to ensure they don't get out of tep with the index and mainly to their jobs and get bonuses ..... irrespective of the fundamentals of the large cap companies

Wonder if this theory applies to NZ -- if so could see Kingfish buying heaps more FPH lol

One of the papers linked is titled 'Gamesmanship and Seasonality in U.S. Stock Returns' ....says it all

[SailorRob]

So the big boys don't buy large cap because they are great companies or anything like that ..... do it to ensure they don't get out of tep with the index and mainly to their jobs and get bonuses ..... irrespective of the fundamentals of the large cap companies

Wonder if this theory applies to NZ -- if so could see Kingfish buying heaps more FPH lol

One of the papers linked is titled 'Gamesmanship and Seasonality in U.S. Stock Returns' ....says it all


Applies even more so to NZ. Liquidity is another reason, but 95% the reasons you have highlighted.

[winner69]

Journalof Portfolio Management had an interesting article a while ago

Titled Do Index Buyers Make Overvalued Stocks More Overvalued?

Guess what the conclusion was

[bull....]

back into the new week after spending a long weekend thinking how lovely the queen was.

US markets still rebounding of the 3900 support and bitcoin had a nice bounce of that 19k support area i was talking about too. probably all related to oversold conditions and the fall in US dollar.

anyway US inflation data tomorrow and fed meeting next week should shape rest of mth. seasonally sept going as per usual that is positive first half followed by weak second half. lets see if the second half plays out as per seasonals.

[alokdhir]

3900 -4300 extended range ...should become smaller and smaller and then the breakout either way should help decide what markets are thinking of ...

At present most valuable short term information is till where this uptrend from 3900 go ...almost reached 4125 ...

US CPI data maybe as per expectations ...at least thats what market is thinking at the moment ...any good or nasty surprises will have equal reaction

NZX appears to be more stable and more solid ...it hardly dropped 2.5% from recent top and quickly regained it back ....just 0.5% shy of last top of 11855...

Maybe defensive NZ markets more appealing for times ahead ....we underperformed last two years now maybe our time to catch up in next two years

[bull....]

3900 -4300 extended range ...should become smaller and smaller and then the breakout either way should help decide what markets are thinking of ...

At present most valuable short term information is till where this uptrend from 3900 go ...almost reached 4125 ...

US CPI data maybe as per expectations ...at least thats what market is thinking at the moment ...any good or nasty surprises will have equal reaction

NZX appears to be more stable and more solid ...it hardly dropped 2.5% from recent top and quickly regained it back ....just 0.5% shy of last top of 11855...

Maybe defensive NZ markets more appealing for times ahead ....we underperformed last two years now maybe our time to catch up in next two years

dju new altime high's in the US so the defensiveness of nz market probably helping. but i guess on the flip if everybody is piling into utilities type stocks then its because they dont see a bright future ahead?

[Bobdn]

US inflation report tomorrow. Big day for holders (which includes me) of USF, USG, USV, USM and USS.

Wish us luck...nah, on second thoughts, who cares. Stocks for the long run.

[alokdhir]

This Friday is Index rebalancing fireworks ...which way they work ...not sure ...but huge volumes for sure

IFT / ATM / Power Companies can be beneficiaries imo

[Peitro]

At what point does Doctor Coppers price get meaningful?

[alokdhir]

At what point does Doctor Coppers price get meaningful?

Low so far is 3.13 ...I think still not up 20% from that low to say bottom is in...

Bitcoin had double bottom at 19000 ....thats also an indication of risk sentiment .

Capitulation has not happened ...thats worrying many analysts ...as thats a requirement before anyone can say ..." Bottom is in "

What and how that happens ...No clue ...Sentiment is pretty upbeat ...opposite of capitulation ...maybe that will make that happen

[Bobdn]

Governments' print an insane amount of money and lock down economies, keep interest rates super low and act all surprised when inflation becomes uncontrollable.

Its a nasty business. Not that I care of course *cough* because um, stocks for the long run.

[bull....]

stocks getting savaged :scared: not quite back too supports yet but as we said yesterday second half of sept usually weak.

Inflation rose 0.1% in August even with sharp drop in gas prices
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/inflation-rose-0point1percent-in-august-even-with-sharp-drop-in-gas-prices.html

sticky inflation that pretty much means 75 increase at fed meeting next week. orr might be thinking sticky too now :scared:

[bull....]

speaking of inflation in NZ

NZD getting smashed overnight

Food prices have risen at their fastest pace in 13 years, with an 8.3% annual increase recorded in August, Statistics NZ said on Tuesday.

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/117598/heating-food-prices-rise-fastest-pace-2009-foodstuffs-says-its-not-them#:~:text=Food%20prices%20have%20risen%20at,the %20same%20month%20in%202021.

there is no way inflation in NZ is coming down quick when tradables and non tradables are both still going the wrong way

[alokdhir]

After covid the monetary response of Central Banks started a cycle ...Stocks were the first to react to that ...making V shaped recovery and topped , property was not far behind and topped second and now it has reached general inflation territory and world Central Banks have fully reversed 2020 response and will keep on raising rates till general inflation is under control ...may take longer then usual as employment is very good for growth to slow or pain to be felt easily

Then this cycle will start again ....so IMHO stocks will be the first ones to react upwards much sooner then general inflation gets tamed

Next few weeks we should be getting final bottom ...either double bottom or higher low or capitulation ....October onwards hoping for better market conditions but they will start from which level ...maybe 3600 S&P !!!

NZX may not revisit previous lows ...thats what it looks at present ....but if capitulation happens then easy to go anywhere ...lol

[Bobdn]

Wow, yes NZD down massively. Mind you all currencies are down against the USD so maybe it's a case of USD up massively.

Still 1 NZD only buys 59 cents US. Against the Euro we're down only slightly but I'm sticking to 3 Euro bottles of wine from my local Spar supermarket so won't notice too much difference.

[bull....]

at this rate we will be testing stock supports tomorrow

have a guess nzx down 5.5 % today

[Balance]

at this rate we will be testing stock supports tomorrow

have a guess nzx down 5.5 % today

Stick to your guesses on Bitcoin.

[winner69]

More carnage to come next few months as one guru on CNBC says “The Fed has never been this far behind on inflation. That argues that we are more at the beginning of the tightening cycle than the end of the tightening cycle,”

[Ggcc]

We will have a sea of red today. Oh well next week we will see some green. What a nice day it is outside.

[Balance]

Markets go up, markets go down.

Invest in quality and in companies which have strong management & balance sheets - you cannot control the markets but you can control your reaction to the markets.

Too many have spent this year getting themselves worked up over the month to month market gyrations in what was always going to be a trying investment year.

Think of the thousands of new first home buyers in 2021 who are now in negative equity territory if you want some perspective.

[bull....]

no folks buy and hold for ever no matter what is not the best ..... timing is everything

[alokdhir]

at this rate we will be testing stock supports tomorrow

have a guess nzx down 5.5 % today

Even 2% down will be big fall ...5.5 % maybe bottom ...lol ...but surely not today

[bull....]

Even 2% down will be big fall ...5.5 % maybe bottom ...lol ...but surely not today

sorry i meant .5% was thinking of the nasdaq fall today when posted

[mike2020]

no folks buy and hold for ever no matter what is not the best ..... timing is everything

Lets be honest, traders live for days like today. Pick the bottom before noon and brag about it by close of the day. Usually on small volume BECAUSE people prefer to buy and hold. Usually the bottom is in before the first 30 minutes with a couple of bounces before lunch, on your marks....

[bull....]

Lets be honest, traders live for days like today. Pick the bottom before noon and brag about it by close of the day. Usually on small volume BECAUSE people prefer to buy and hold. Usually the bottom is in before the first 30 minutes with a couple of bounces before lunch, on your marks....

im being serious buy and hold only works long term if you time it right and buy the right stocks.
otherwise every single person in the world could just invest and be right and millionaires in time when in fact the opposite happens and most people enter retirement average to poor in wealth

[mike2020]

I'm not really arguing with you on that. Entry and Exit do matter along with choice but a long term investor might not even look at their portfolio today. If you bought 50k of HGH last week maybe you want to look at it in 12 months time or maybe you might think buying OCA today could be looking good in 24 months. I started investing over 20 years ago and sold a few small wins but holding over time eclipsed those and proved them to be pointless mistakes. I get your good at trading, me not so much.

[LEMON]

It is worrying everyone is still optimistic or bullish whilst inflation is still ridiculously high globally
Inflation falls .2% from the last report, yet that same inflation is compounding, just .2% slower, FED wants something to break and will increase rates until it does, not only that it also forces China to raise rates when they should be dropping them during their housing collapse, be safe *maybe* the worst hasn't arrived

We are in a war over currency & commodities, they don't care about your portfolio, the goal is to bring inflation to 2% and yet people are still borrowing and buying including our governments - Fixing inflation with inflation, brave bravo

"But, in fact, what you should learn when you make a mistake because you did not anticipate something is that the world is difficult to anticipate. That's the correct lesson to learn from surprises: that the world is surprising" - The Psychology of Money

[Hoop]

no folks buy and hold for ever no matter what is not the best ..... timing is everything

Bull market cycles periods about 80% Bear Market cycles about 20% so Bear markets cycle periods aren't that common.. big crashes (usually but not always within the Bear Market cycle) are rare events but very commonly mentioned in media.

Most investors are passive investors (they have lives to live rather than being glued to a stock exchange monitor using various investment programmes)

..so...with passive investors being the dominate numbers in the market the best strategies are:..

Best Bull Market strategy is Buy and Hold and accumulate in the dips..As the stock market is in Bull mode most of the time Buy and Hold (Sailing) is very common investment behaviour.

Best Bear Market strategy is sell up and go away..The next best option is short term "in & out" (rowing) .. timing is the key factor and simple TA is the commonly used timing tool. I've been there and did that during the 2008 Bear Market cycle Staying "in" and being successful was bloody hard work, requiring constant monitoring, limited sleep, limited social life, stress and worry, high stock transaction costs with constant buying and selling, pissing Mrs Hoop off with big money transactions and various mood swings..Result: Good news I beat the market big time. My Portfolio went up +3% during the same time the overall market fell -40+%..Bad News: If I had exited the market and put my money on fixed term deposit I would have got +8% (interest) and had a life..
The worst Bear market investment strategy is the passive buy and hold..expect to lose on average what the market loses (average bear market loss ~-40%) and takes approximately 3 years to recover that Capital paper loss.

so this time guess where my money went?.. Yep in fixed deposit..I kept a small amount 10% for dabbling (as losing) in the market so to keep my finger on the pulse..I'm now playing the waiting game and as one might say I'm "locked and Loaded"

[mike2020]

I admire your skills and honesty. There is one share I follow on the ASX and long time fan and regular poster of the company called bubble and sold out missing out on a sp that tripled. It's only double what he sold at now and he's still calling bubble. Timing the market is a gift but very few have it. Sell up and go away must have it's own levels of doubt? What if your wrong and it never drops enough or worse, you drop out to early or maybe today is the bottom and you bail only to see your shares recover?

[Hoop]

Mike...With your finger on the sell button FOMO appears with all these positive maybes. Procrastination sets in and as the stock continues to fall in price and you become trapped and you face a dilemma and an unanswerable question of is it wrong to sell or wrong to hold on ..When finally the sell button is pushed FOMO is replaced with despair and has made you mistiming the sell. Often people sell near the bottom due to the procrastination and agony. Likewise when buying back in after a bear market event.

The Market place operates on sentiment (emotion) but I keep staying "Emotion Kills". One of the reasons I switched to TA discipline was TA investing removes that emotive factor and reduces investor dilemmas

How severe will this Bear Market Cycle be? How big a risk is it to stay fully invested in the market?

In my above post I used -40% capital loss as an average Bear Market cycle example to which you need a 67% rally to get that capital back to break even..Preserving Capital by keeping out for the few months when the Bear is at its worse can give you huge rewards when re-entering the market..
From the table you can see how destructive a Bear market can be..a severe Bear -60% has occurred a few times which needed a bull market cycle gain of +150% to recover back to even..severe events can take a long time to recover..
When everything was so rosy in the 1920's who would've believed the 3 year long 1930 bear of -90% was just around the corner...Have a look at the table, that-90% loss needed a +900% gain ..that's eye watering/jumping off buildings stuff ..eh

Amazingly after decades of TA and practicing pushing that big red button, the hardest thing in my investment life is still pushing that sell button..



14160

[mike2020]

Thanks. I find it very hard to sell shares I like.

[Hoop]

Thanks. I find it very hard to sell shares I like.

Me too...
and after investing for 49 years I still don't practice what I preach..My pet dog is Vista (VGL). In my mind it lives in a golden kennel and eats gourmet meals all expenses paid and by the way it's fleas are so unwarranted..I'm $18,000 down on expenses and counting:p...you would think I would have evicted that mutt before now ...eh...but oh no.

[SailorRob]

Mike...With your finger on the sell button FOMO appears with all these positive maybes. Procrastination sets in and as the stock continues to fall in price and you become trapped and you face a dilemma and an unanswerable question of is it wrong to sell or wrong to hold on ..When finally the sell button is pushed FOMO is replaced with despair and has made you mistiming the sell. Often people sell near the bottom due to the procrastination and agony. Likewise when buying back in after a bear market event.

The Market place operates on sentiment (emotion) but I keep staying "Emotion Kills". One of the reasons I switched to TA discipline was TA investing removes that emotive factor and reduces investor dilemmas

How severe will this Bear Market Cycle be? How big a risk is it to stay fully invested in the market?

In my above post I used -40% capital loss as an average Bear Market cycle example to which you need a 67% rally to get that capital back to break even..Preserving Capital by keeping out for the few months when the Bear is at its worse can give you huge rewards when re-entering the market..
From the table you can see how destructive a Bear market can be..a severe Bear -60% has occurred a few times which needed a bull market cycle gain of +150% to recover back to even..severe events can take a long time to recover..
When everything was so rosy in the 1920's who would've believed the 3 year long 1930 bear of -90% was just around the corner...Have a look at the table, that-90% loss needed a +900% gain ..that's eye watering/jumping off buildings stuff ..eh

Amazingly after decades of TA and practicing pushing that big red button, the hardest thing in my investment life is still pushing that sell button..



14160

You are able to time the mark Hoop? How long have you had this ability?

[bull....]

Mike...With your finger on the sell button FOMO appears with all these positive maybes. Procrastination sets in and as the stock continues to fall in price and you become trapped and you face a dilemma and an unanswerable question of is it wrong to sell or wrong to hold on ..When finally the sell button is pushed FOMO is replaced with despair and has made you mistiming the sell. Often people sell near the bottom due to the procrastination and agony. Likewise when buying back in after a bear market event.

The Market place operates on sentiment (emotion) but I keep staying "Emotion Kills". One of the reasons I switched to TA discipline was TA investing removes that emotive factor and reduces investor dilemmas

How severe will this Bear Market Cycle be? How big a risk is it to stay fully invested in the market?

In my above post I used -40% capital loss as an average Bear Market cycle example to which you need a 67% rally to get that capital back to break even..Preserving Capital by keeping out for the few months when the Bear is at its worse can give you huge rewards when re-entering the market..
From the table you can see how destructive a Bear market can be..a severe Bear -60% has occurred a few times which needed a bull market cycle gain of +150% to recover back to even..severe events can take a long time to recover..
When everything was so rosy in the 1920's who would've believed the 3 year long 1930 bear of -90% was just around the corner...Have a look at the table, that-90% loss needed a +900% gain ..that's eye watering/jumping off buildings stuff ..eh

Amazingly after decades of TA and practicing pushing that big red button, the hardest thing in my investment life is still pushing that sell button..



14160

good posts thx hoop. your initial timing can play a massive role in overall returns in the long run

[Panda-NZ-]

European stocks should be doing better given the chance of a general rout or surrender of Russian forces has increased.

[SailorRob]

im being serious buy and hold only works long term if you time it right and buy the right stocks.
otherwise every single person in the world could just invest and be right and millionaires in time when in fact the opposite happens and most people enter retirement average to poor in wealth


This is absolute rubbish and the exact opposite way around.

For 99% of retail investors and over 90% of professionals, buy and hold investing ONLY works if you do not try to 'time it right' and buy 'the right stocks.' This fact is so well known and proven it is a big statement of one's knowledge (lack of) to state otherwise as well as being very misleading for people who don't know better.

The exact reason the people can't/don't invest and become millionaires is BECAUSE they try to pick stocks and time markets.

If just dollar cost average and buy and hold over the long term while reinvesting dividends you cannot fail to become a millionaire even if you are on minimum wage (providing you spend less than you earn). Anyone who knows anything about investing/finance knows this.

If you can do what Bull and Hoop do, time the market and buy stocks that do better than the market and obviously if you can then you are doing it with most of your capital, (Warren Buffett cannot and hasn't ever met anyone that can) then one of these three things must be true.

1. You are young and have little capital.

2. You're full of bull.


3. You are at a minimum worth 8 figures and most likely 9 and on the NZ rich list (happy to provide the math)


I have never read so much absolute hogwash as from people on this site who claim they can consistently time the market and on top of that buy market beating stocks. Worse still those saying that they can do it with 'simple TA'. Jeez folks, if people on sharetrader can use TA to consistently time the markets then do you think the New York Pros could? A real pro investor might try to time the market by putting 10% of their fund to cash, but these geniuses (sharetrader) imply that they go 100% to cash and then deploy back at the perfect time.


Or do you think that an AI programme could be developed to be able to recognise these patterns from TA and be able to get you in and out at the best times?


Let me put my money where my mouth is and offer a public 5 figure bet to these people, the winnings can go to charity. If you can provide an audited (by a proper accounting firm such as PWC) track record showing your ability to consistently time the market and buy market-beating stocks as well, you win. If not, you lose.


The only other thing I would ask if I lose is that you explain how it's possible that you're not on the NZ rich list.

Sorry for the rant folks but I have to call out this crap.

[SailorRob]

Funny read this right after my post...


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/to-make-money-in-the-stock-market-do-nothing/5U5KRYYFP4HVM3GPSJQCGOR6K4/

[Bobdn]

Yes indeed, buy low fee whole market passive funds and let the magic happen.

Now, full disclosure. I do have one active fund which is about 10 per cent of my financial assets: Devon Funds. I've had it since 2010 and my net return after taxes and fees is just a tad over 10 per cent per annum (as at 12 September maybe a little less after yesterday). I'm happy with that and just leaving well enough alone. But everything else is in passive funds.

Everybody needs to brush up on the rule of 72. And then people need to look at the historical returns of share markets. Last night Jeremy Siegel said the historic average return for the US market AFTER inflation is 6 per cent per annum. Its astounding, that's after inflation. That's an incredible return.

[Onemootpoint]

Funny read this right after my post...


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/to-make-money-in-the-stock-market-do-nothing/5U5KRYYFP4HVM3GPSJQCGOR6K4/


Indeed; sage advice within context.
Work hard for your money, and let your money work (hard) for you.

[bull....]

This is absolute rubbish and the exact opposite way around.

For 99% of retail investors and over 90% of professionals, buy and hold investing ONLY works if you do not try to 'time it right' and buy 'the right stocks.' This fact is so well known and proven it is a big statement of one's knowledge (lack of) to state otherwise as well as being very misleading for people who don't know better. [quote]

what i said is correct
i said if you dont time and pick it right your be broke or poor in the long run.
I like to think i can be one of your 1% who can find the right stock eg apple a $1000 investment in apple 40 yrs ago is now worth 1.4 m roughly now this is just 1 example of many.
the risk is picking the right stock.




The exact reason the people can't/don't invest and become millionaires is BECAUSE they try to pick stocks and time markets.

If just dollar cost average and buy and hold over the long term while reinvesting dividends you cannot fail to become a millionaire even if you are on minimum wage (providing you spend less than you earn). Anyone who knows anything about investing/finance knows this.

this isnt true because facts show most people invest in funds because they dont have the time to research finding stocks like apple and if funds were the road to riches everyone could just go to sleep and in 40 yrs they be a millionaire by investing in a fund when in reality most are not millionaires at retirement. eg kiwisaver will never make you a millionaire

If you can do what Bull and Hoop do, time the market and buy stocks that do better than the market and obviously if you can then you are doing it with most of your capital, (Warren Buffett cannot and hasn't ever met anyone that can) then one of these three things must be true.

1. You are young and have little capital.

2. You're full of bull.


3. You are at a minimum worth 8 figures and most likely 9 and on the NZ rich list (happy to provide the math)

Again your not right anyone can gain the skills thru practice and loss to eventually do this like me and hoop
the fact that we are not as rich as warren buffett is because maybe we dont leverage ourselves to the eyeballs and use derivitives like buffet did


I have never read so much absolute hogwash as from people on this site who claim they can consistently time the market and on top of that buy market beating stocks. Worse still those saying that they can do it with 'simple TA'. Jeez folks, if people on sharetrader can use TA to consistently time the markets then do you think the New York Pros could? A real pro investor might try to time the market by putting 10% of their fund to cash, but these geniuses (sharetrader) imply that they go 100% to cash and then deploy back at the perfect time.

i take it your referring to hoop as i never said anything about 100% cash or perfect timing and i think hoop was referring to his plan for bear markets not in general so your barking up the wrong tree again


Or do you think that an AI programme could be developed to be able to recognise these patterns from TA and be able to get you in and out at the best times?

you obviously havnt heard of Renaissance Technologies 66% annual returns for over 20 yrs


Let me put my money where my mouth is and offer a public 5 figure bet to these people, the winnings can go to charity. If you can provide an audited (by a proper accounting firm such as PWC) track record showing your ability to consistently time the market and buy market-beating stocks as well, you win. If not, you lose.

I could show i beat the index over time and im sure there are many other could prove it too. i dont invest based on picking exact top or bottoms but my educated guess on such matters has been fairly good. also saying comments like this implies you have never met anyone who can consistantly beat an index. im sure no one will ever say they can pick tops or bottoms to a tee


The only other thing I would ask if I lose is that you explain how it's possible that you're not on the NZ rich list.

it all depends what money you start investing with and what age you start investing at , for me if i started investing at 18 i probably would be on the rich list now but unfortunately i spent my youth and alot of 20s and 30s boozing it up , traveling living life and not really paying much attention to investing. so there's advice start young lol

Sorry for the rant folks but I have to call out this crap.

anyway on your investing in a fund to riches and your silly herald article you posted here is a article which shows investing in a fund is not the road to riches normally unless your lucky to find a stock picking guru fund manager or the like

Buy And Hold Investing. Is It A One Size Fits All Solution?


https://realinvestmentadvice.com/buy-and-hold-investing-is-it-a-one-size-fits-all-solution/













i posted my reply's in red

anyway how's your index funds going this yr ? if its a loss better refer to hoop's graph on what gain your need next yr to get back to square
my stockpicking t/a lol is positive for the yr so far

[Mafman]

That's a great article Bull. What many people forget is that not all of us are going to live to be 200 years old. Invest and forget is a poor strategy for someone expecting to live another 20 years say. Because when do you sell? Maybe it should have been last year. Maybe next year. And why would anyone buy into a market thought to be at the top of it's cycle? Over-simplistic advice like invest and forget only applies to long term cost-averaging schemes - typically for young investors. For me, I'd rather preserve capital by bailing when the signs are too obvious, and re-enter when the price is too cheap. It's not rocket science.

[winner69]

Heard on CNBC: "Every time inflation has peaked above 6%, the market bottom was already in."

But the markets has been so richly valued at this peak

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I have had two net red weeks this year (actively trading and hedging longer positions). Must be luck.

[percy]

I have had two net red weeks this year (actively trading and hedging longer positions). Must be luck.

Well I have been a "stock picker" for about 55 years.It is my hobby.
I have made every mistake that can be made in the market,and just when I think I am ahead,the market throws up another surprise.
However, I have had a huge amount of fun and enjoyment,and have ended up "well positioned".
Sell the losers and add to the winners,together with following those who do what they say they will do, seems to work just fine.

[winner69]

NZ economy soars in Q2 says latest print of GDP numbers

That’s good news

[dobby41]

NZ economy soars in Q2 says latest print of GDP numbers

That’s good news

And everyone who didn't know said we were definitely in a recession.

[Muse]

NZ economy soars in Q2 says latest print of GDP numbers

That’s good news

I can hear banks furiously scribbling away as they raise their OCR hike trajectory

[alokdhir]

I can hear banks furiously scribbling away as they raise their OCR hike trajectory

Already ASB has raised peak to 4.25 % with another 25 bps rise in Feb 2023 ...with no reductions till early 2024 ....

[winner69]

Already ASB has raised peak to 4.25 % with another 25 bps rise in Feb 2023 ...with no reductions till early 2024 ....

That can’t me right eh alokdhir …just guessing (wildly) I reckon

[alokdhir]

That can’t me right eh alokdhir …just guessing (wildly) I reckon

Just got that update at 12.46 pm from ASB ...its very right mate ...now everyone is very jumpy either way of any data ...no one knows what will happen ...they just react to each data in a big way ...lol

" Q2 GDP above market consensus, but in line with RBNZ expectations


•
Subsequent GDP prints are expected to remain volatile as the economy continues the process of transitioning back to pre-COVID-19 norms. The pace of growth will slow, but base momentum should remain decent


•
We now expect a further 25bp hike in early 2023 on top of the 100bps of hikes by the end of this year, taking the OCR to 4.25%. OCR cuts would be conditional on pressures of capacity and elevated core inflation cooling "

[winner69]

So many numbers - QvQ / Ann / Sea Adj / Exp / Prod

But Stats NZ produce this chart

Just look at the line (not columns) which is Annual GDP (real)

Doesn't look like GDP is soaring as some say ... at least its 1.0% higher than June 2021

[alokdhir]

So many numbers - QvQ / Ann / Sea Adj / Exp / Prod

But Stats NZ produce this chart

Just look at the line (not columns) which is Annual GDP (real)

Doesn't look like GDP is soaring as some say ... at least its 1.0% higher than June 2021

Like some say. " Stats hide more then they reveal " ...lol

At least the forex market agrees with u that GDP data is weak and its not increasing NZ rate outlook ahead

[SailorRob]

[QUOTE=SailorRob;975125]This is absolute rubbish and the exact opposite way around.

For 99% of retail investors and over 90% of professionals, buy and hold investing ONLY works if you do not try to 'time it right' and buy 'the right stocks.' This fact is so well known and proven it is a big statement of one's knowledge (lack of) to state otherwise as well as being very misleading for people who don't know better.


i posted my reply's in red

anyway how's your index funds going this yr ? if its a loss better refer to hoop's graph on what gain your need next yr to get back to square
my stockpicking t/a lol is positive for the yr so far


My apologies Bull, you have destroyed my arguments.


So lets do this bet and get some money to a charity of your choice.


I said 5 figures, let's make it $50,000 and you can choose the charity or even keep it yourself. Super easy to get your performance audited, I will also pay for that if it is as you say it is.


What reason could you possibly have for not taking me up on this? After all, you are not a coward, nor are you full of Bull.

I don't own any index funds, though it could prove over time that I was better off doing so, only time will tell. I have around 20% of my entire net worth in Occidental Petroleum warrants and so it has been one hell of a year for me so far and measured NZD even better. Things can change fast...

[SailorRob]

That's a great article Bull. What many people forget is that not all of us are going to live to be 200 years old. Invest and forget is a poor strategy for someone expecting to live another 20 years say. Because when do you sell? Maybe it should have been last year. Maybe next year. And why would anyone buy into a market thought to be at the top of it's cycle? Over-simplistic advice like invest and forget only applies to long term cost-averaging schemes - typically for young investors. For me, I'd rather preserve capital by bailing when the signs are too obvious, and re-enter when the price is too cheap. It's not rocket science.


The bet extends to you sunshine.

$50,000 says that you cannot do what you claim is 'not rocket science'

Take my money.

[SailorRob]

I have had two net red weeks this year (actively trading and hedging longer positions). Must be luck.

No chance this is luck Horse. A 9 month track record of nailing it is something to be reckoned with, it takes this long for a Woman to make a baby after all.

If you publish this record you would be able to attract large sums of capital and get a nice fund up and running.

Other good time periods to judge ones record over are 15, 20 and 25 years.

[alokdhir]

Index rebalancing is here ...It will throw up lots of surprises and surely huge volumes

Already WHS is under its influence with results round the corner adding to excitement

IFT / GNE are of interest to me

I am assuming the shares which have done well in last quarter should get higher weightage due to market cap increasing thus funds need to top up !!!

I know most of that is already sorted behind the scenes but it needs to be played out on NZX ...lets c ...its going to be an exciting day just watching

[bull....]

Index rebalancing is here ...It will throw up lots of surprises and surely huge volumes

Already WHS is under its influence with results round the corner adding to excitement

IFT / GNE are of interest to me

I am assuming the shares which have done well in last quarter should get higher weightage due to market cap increasing thus funds need to top up !!!

I know most of that is already sorted behind the scenes but it needs to be played out on NZX ...lets c ...its going to be an exciting day just watching

lets hope it is as exciting as the all black game i just finished watching. great game

anyway the US markets hovering around that 3900 support again if it doesnt collapse tomorrow maybe next week on fed meeting

[winner69]

Index rebalancing is here ...It will throw up lots of surprises and surely huge volumes

Already WHS is under its influence with results round the corner adding to excitement

IFT / GNE are of interest to me

I am assuming the shares which have done well in last quarter should get higher weightage due to market cap increasing thus funds need to top up !!!

I know most of that is already sorted behind the scenes but it needs to be played out on NZX ...lets c ...its going to be an exciting day just watching

It’s all a big game eh alokdhir ….. the voting machine in action and nothing to do with how good or bad a company is (fundamentals)

Fun game while it lasts

And as ref said last night just play or get penalised

[alokdhir]

It’s all a big game eh alokdhir ….. the voting machine in action and nothing to do with how good or bad a company is (fundamentals)

Fun game while it lasts

And as ref said last night just play or get penalised

Did u notice the thumbs down from Forex market to yesterday's GDP data ...like u said it was not that flash ...Only ASB jumped the gun in increasing OCR peak ...rest all staying with 4% ...Weaker then it looks

[FTG]

Heads up folks.

Quadruple witching tomorrow. Could make for a volatile session.

[Snoopy]

Index rebalancing is here ...It will throw up lots of surprises and surely huge volumes

Already WHS is under its influence with results round the corner adding to excitement

IFT / GNE are of interest to me

I am assuming the shares which have done well in last quarter should get higher weightage due to market cap increasing thus funds need to top up !!!

I know most of that is already sorted behind the scenes but it needs to be played out on NZX ...lets c ...its going to be an exciting day just watching


'Index rebalancing' occurs when a share is taken in or out of an index. But if a share is:

a/ Already in an index,
b/ Does well AND
c/ The share price goes up as a result ,

THEN any existing shareholding within an index fund goes up by the same percentage as the share price rises. So any index re-balancing is automatic, and has already happened. No buying and selling is needed to keep an index fund in balance at the end of the quarter, not a single transaction! (bar change in the index composition that I alluded to earlier.)

Of course if you are an 'active fund' 'chasing the winners', and you are given a funds inflow at the end of the month/quarter, then you may indeed be chasing some share prices higher. But if any share prices re-rate at the end of the month, then it will be the active funds doing that - not the passive funds.

SNOOPY

[Mafman]

The bet extends to you sunshine.

$50,000 says that you cannot do what you claim is 'not rocket science'

Take my money.
SailorRob,
I have a lot of respect for your contributions, but I think in this instance you are letting ego get in the way of what could be a great discussion.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

No chance this is luck Horse. A 9 month track record of nailing it is something to be reckoned with, it takes this long for a Woman to make a baby after all.

If you publish this record you would be able to attract large sums of capital and get a nice fund up and running.

Other good time periods to judge ones record over are 15, 20 and 25 years.

Unfortunately my strategies are not scalable on the NZ market due to poor liquidity (although I still manage to move low-mid six figures daily). I value my sleep too much to regularly day trade the US market.

I think this particular market top was quite obvious if you follow rates, however many aren't. Timing the market is an experts game (i.e. you're full time with many years experience). The biggest risk, and one I have been guilty of, is selling too early and missing big gains. Hence why I'm primarily a shorter term trader, whilst working on my patience for buy and hold.

I agree that for 99.99% of people buy and hold is the best strategy.

[bull....]

fedex looked upon as global bell weather of conditions has just released some news

FedEx (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FDX) on Thursday withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/fedex-fdx-earnings-q1-2023-miss-estimates.html

[ynot]

fedex looked upon as global bell weather of conditions has just released some news

FedEx (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FDX) on Thursday withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/fedex-fdx-earnings-q1-2023-miss-estimates.html

It has been a lot slower to take the the momentum out of the market than I anticipated but then we have been through unprecedented money printing. Still looking like a slow motion train wreck to me.

[LEMON]

Agree ynot, emerging markets have been burning through more dollar reserves than in 2008 to keep their currency afloat, although most developed countries may survive the storm, the global impact of defaults similar to Sri Lanka if confirmed will ripple, I hope im wrong but very conscious of this scenario, bond markets are a leading indicator of more pain on the horizon, FED wants 2% and will only achieve this with higher rates, high rates will cause massive pain, and so many are expecting a pivot before it breaks, yet what if Powell pushes for 2%? If he doesn't increase rates higher then expect prolonged stagflation or else he achieves market capitulation and destroys demand to get inflation under control back to 2%

Not saying this is likely as I have no crystal ball, yet I am cautious, FED will use their only weapon & increase rates higher than expected

[bull....]

just finished listening to fed ex ceo while back. pretty straight up to say that. guess it wont sway the fed though there on a mission

FedEx CEO says he expects the economy to enter a 'worldwide recession' FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam told CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday that he believes a recession is impending for the global economy. The CEO's pessimism came after FedEx missed estimates on revenue and earnings in its first quarter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/fedex-ceo-says-he-expects-the-economy-to-enter-a-worldwide-recession.html#:~:text=Mad%20Money-,FedEx%20CEO%20says%20he%20expects,to%20enter%20a% 20'worldwide%20recession'&text=FedEx%20CEO%20Raj%20Subramaniam%20told,earnin gs%20in%20its%20first%20quarter.

[alokdhir]

'Index rebalancing' occurs when a share is taken in or out of an index. But if a share is:

a/ Already in an index,
b/ Does well AND
c/ The share price goes up as a result ,

THEN any existing shareholding within an index fund goes up by the same percentage as the share price rises. So any index re-balancing is automatic, and has already happened. No buying and selling is needed to keep an index fund in balance at the end of the quarter, not a single transaction! (bar change in the index composition that I alluded to earlier.)

Of course if you are an 'active fund' 'chasing the winners', and you are given a funds inflow at the end of the month/quarter, then you may indeed be chasing some share prices higher. But if any share prices re-rate at the end of the month, then it will be the active funds doing that - not the passive funds.

SNOOPY

Then how do u explain the volumes of today ? IMO they get rebalanced to new levels today ...thats why its rebalanced every quarter may not a continuous process as stated by u . I was just referring to exceptional volumes and movements that happen today ...must be some reason ...normally that happens in already index existing constituents ...I do understand new inclusions ...but this is. " Rebalancing "

[Jaa]

Did u notice the thumbs down from Forex market to yesterday's GDP data ...like u said it was not that flash ...Only ASB jumped the gun in increasing OCR peak ...rest all staying with 4% ...Weaker then it looks

GDP growth for the June Qtr of 1.7% and inflation for the same Qtr of 1.7%. So real GDP growth of nothing?

On an annual basis June year GDP growth of 1% and inflation of 7.3% so real GDP growth of -6.3% for the year?

Not that Stats NZ or the media reports on real GDP growth let alone real GDP growth per capita... which is what I was always taught really matters. So I guess sweet as?

[workingdad]

Index rebalancing is here ...It will throw up lots of surprises and surely huge volumes

Already WHS is under its influence with results round the corner adding to excitement

IFT / GNE are of interest to me

I am assuming the shares which have done well in last quarter should get higher weightage due to market cap increasing thus funds need to top up !!!

I know most of that is already sorted behind the scenes but it needs to be played out on NZX ...lets c ...its going to be an exciting day just watching

Big one on GNE at the end of the day

[blackcap]

GDP growth for the June Qtr of 1.7% and inflation for the same Qtr of 1.7%. So real GDP growth of nothing?

On an annual basis June year GDP growth of 1% and inflation of 7.3% so real GDP growth of -6.3% for the year?

Not that Stats NZ or the media reports on real GDP growth let alone real GDP growth per capita... which is what I was always taught really matters. So I guess sweet as?

Exactly, its the real that matters. In NZ the last 20 years, real GDP growth has been about zero. Taking out immigration etc, GDP per capita has been on the decline even though technology has advanced. Bit of a worry really.

[Snoopy]

Then how do u explain the volumes of today ? IMO they get rebalanced to new levels today ...thats why its rebalanced every quarter may not a continuous process as stated by u . I was just referring to exceptional volumes and movements that happen today ...must be some reason ...normally that happens in already index existing constituents ...I do understand new inclusions ...but this is. " Rebalancing "


I don't think it is 'rebalancing' causing market activity today

From: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/398199/378337.pdf

---------------------

INDEX ANNOUNCEMENT
S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces September 2022
Quarterly Rebalance of the S&P/NZX Indices
SYDNEY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2022: S&P Dow Jones Indices announced today the changes in the S&P/NZX indices, effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, September 19, 2022, as a result of the September quarterly review.

S&P/NZX 10 Index – No change.
S&P/NZX 20 Index – No change.
S&P/NZX 50 & S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio Index – No change.
S&P/NZX MidCap Index – No change.

----------------------

No changes at all announced. = Nothing to do.

It might however have something to do with a certain NZX20 derivative futures contract expiring:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398889

SNOOPY

[alokdhir]

I don't think it is 'rebalancing' causing market activity today

From: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/398199/378337.pdf

---------------------

INDEX ANNOUNCEMENT
S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces September 2022
Quarterly Rebalance of the S&P/NZX Indices
SYDNEY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2022: S&P Dow Jones Indices announced today the changes in the S&P/NZX indices, effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, September 19, 2022, as a result of the September quarterly review.

S&P/NZX 10 Index – No change.
S&P/NZX 20 Index – No change.
S&P/NZX 50 & S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio Index – No change.
S&P/NZX MidCap Index – No change.

----------------------

No changes at all announced. = Nothing to do.

It might however have something to do with a certain NZX20 derivative futures contract expiring:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/398889

SNOOPY

Every 3rd Friday of every quarter this happens ....huge volumes and big movements .

Todays total turnover was 450 Mil which is 5 times normal days

10.6 Mil IFT were traded for example ...huge

Why this happens I am unable to understand ....though I understand your points ....was just thinking aloud to know why this big turnovers happen if no big changes are needed anywhere ..

" The volume was boosted by the quarterly rebalance of the NZX and FTSE Russell indices in an extended trading session.Infratil, down 7.5c to $9.15, had its presence in the FTSE index upgraded and 10.62m shares worth $97.15m changed hands. Spark, moving into the S&P/ASX 200 Index, declined 3c to $5.10 on trade worth $42.45m."

This is from NZH market close article ...some changes do happen thats why huge trading happen !!!

[Ricky-bobby]

KPG was huge closing turn over as well.

[SailorRob]

SailorRob,
I have a lot of respect for your contributions, but I think in this instance you are letting ego get in the way of what could be a great discussion.

Appreciate that Mafman.


With regards to my ego... I am the one saying that I have no ability to time the market whatsoever, I have no clue what interest rates are going to do, I have no idea what any individual stock or whole market will do on Monday, next week, next Month, next year or in 3 years.


I am saying that I don't even know if I can beat the market over the long term despite spending 25 hours a week at it on top of a full time job.


I have never boasted about any successes I have had, I have never said anything remotely like 'For me, I'd rather preserve capital by bailing when the signs are too obvious, and re-enter when the price is too cheap. It's not rocket science'.


Or the Horse - 'I think this particular market top was quite obvious if you follow rates, however many aren't' Really? You just need to follow rates and then this particular top was pretty obvious? Not for me, no chance.


Wouldn't an example of ego be someone posting publicly that doing something that has never been achieved by any human before in all of recorded history 'is not rocket science'?


Why don't you or Bull want to see $50,000 going to charity during these challenging times and put my ego to rest at the same time. Super easy to email through your accounts to PWC and get the audit going, it's not rocket science.


Bull has been in touch and the bet is on. That's the left hand side of the Tui billboard.


As for the article he posted... Who was ever talking about investing a lump sum into the market at one time and then walking away? In this case of course you may not get average returns, unless you are investors for a very long time. While you guys can make many claims you cannot challenge the mathematical definition of average. We are talking about investing capital as you accumulate it and then reinvesting dividends which over any period of time will see you get the average return of the market...

Many markets globally are at the same levels now as they were in the year 2000 or late 90's. EVEN if you had invested a lump sum at the top 22 years ago, you would have still done ok with reinvesting dividends as you would be investing into the lows that followed. There are many calculators which can show you exactly what returns you would get depending on various factors.

Don't just read articles, think about things for yourselves and challenge everything.


If you can save and invest 25k a year then this will turn you into a millionaire in 15 to 17 years.


Why don't one of you just tell us without proof of the last 6 consecutive market timing calls and actions you made? What did you do, when did you get out and back in and with what percentage of your capital and how did this lead to returns that were better than having done nothing?


With the market having returned something like 13% over the last decade plus, anyone who has any timing ability at all will be able to add significantly to this, if as they claim they also can pick market beating stocks, then their returns will be minimum 20%. At this rate it doesn't take long to get to $10,000,000.


When I asked Bull why he wasn't worth 8 figures (meaning at least 10 mil) he responded something about why he wasn't as wealthy as Buffett which is some 100 billion USD or 160 NZD. So he mistook my question by a factor of 16,000! He responded and explained why he wasn't worth more than 16,000 times what I asked. His math is worse than his grammar. Why not just answer the question rather than defend why you're not worth sixteen thousand times more than I asked.

Son, why are you not playing first 15 this year. Well dad I'm not in the All Black squad because... Son I didn't ask about the All Blacks. Daddy I don't understand. It's OK Son stop crying my baby boy.

While My bet was made to specific individuals, I note with interest that there are hundreds of people reading this many with 50 years experience and nobody has been in touch with me asking to take me up on it.

Could it be that Warren is right and in his 80 years actively investing, he's never met anyone who can do what so many here on Share trader can do easily, after all it's not rocket science.

[bull....]

Appreciate that Mafman.


With regards to my ego... I am the one saying that I have no ability to time the market whatsoever, I have no clue what interest rates are going to do, I have no idea what any individual stock or whole market will do on Monday, next week, next Month, next year or in 3 years.


I am saying that I don't even know if I can beat the market over the long term despite spending 25 hours a week at it on top of a full time job.


I have never boasted about any successes I have had, I have never said anything remotely like 'For me, I'd rather preserve capital by bailing when the signs are too obvious, and re-enter when the price is too cheap. It's not rocket science'.


Or the Horse - 'I think this particular market top was quite obvious if you follow rates, however many aren't' Really? You just need to follow rates and then this particular top was pretty obvious? Not for me, no chance.


Wouldn't an example of ego be someone posting publicly that doing something that has never been achieved by any human before in all of recorded history 'is not rocket science'?


Why don't you or Bull want to see $50,000 going to charity during these challenging times and put my ego to rest at the same time. Super easy to email through your accounts to PWC and get the audit going, it's not rocket science.


Bull has been in touch and the bet is on. That's the left hand side of the Tui billboard.


As for the article he posted... Who was ever talking about investing a lump sum into the market at one time and then walking away? In this case of course you may not get average returns, unless you are investors for a very long time. While you guys can make many claims you cannot challenge the mathematical definition of average. We are talking about investing capital as you accumulate it and then reinvesting dividends which over any period of time will see you get the average return of the market...

Many markets globally are at the same levels now as they were in the year 2000 or late 90's. EVEN if you had invested a lump sum at the top 22 years ago, you would have still done ok with reinvesting dividends as you would be investing into the lows that followed. There are many calculators which can show you exactly what returns you would get depending on various factors.

Don't just read articles, think about things for yourselves and challenge everything.


If you can save and invest 25k a year then this will turn you into a millionaire in 15 to 17 years.


Why don't one of you just tell us without proof of the last 6 consecutive market timing calls and actions you made? What did you do, when did you get out and back in and with what percentage of your capital and how did this lead to returns that were better than having done nothing?


With the market having returned something like 13% over the last decade plus, anyone who has any timing ability at all will be able to add significantly to this, if as they claim they also can pick market beating stocks, then their returns will be minimum 20%. At this rate it doesn't take long to get to $10,000,000.


When I asked Bull why he wasn't worth 8 figures (meaning at least 10 mil) he responded something about why he wasn't as wealthy as Buffett which is some 100 billion USD or 160 NZD. So he mistook my question by a factor of 16,000! He responded and explained why he wasn't worth more than 16,000 times what I asked. His math is worse than his grammar. Why not just answer the question rather than defend why you're not worth sixteen thousand times more than I asked.

Son, why are you not playing first 15 this year. Well dad I'm not in the All Black squad because... Son I didn't ask about the All Blacks. Daddy I don't understand. It's OK Son stop crying my baby boy.

While My bet was made to specific individuals, I note with interest that there are hundreds of people reading this many with 50 years experience and nobody has been in touch with me asking to take me up on it.

Could it be that Warren is right and in his 80 years actively investing, he's never met anyone who can do what so many here on Share trader can do easily, after all it's not rocket science.

i only have a minute as im rapping up my market beating week and looking forward to my week end ( you dont need to keep going on about your bet i have nothing to prove to anyone as i dont need to furnish an ego your have to take my word its true , im market beating ) but could you explain to us with maths how anyone can save 2000 a mth for investing with the cost of living costs etc what sort of starting sum your talking about and over what time frame.
also how do you pick your market winning stocks that you average down with in a bear market that will make you rich one day and how do you guarantee these stocks will do what you say.

have a good weekend sailor rob ill read your reply next week

[SailorRob]

i only have a minute as im rapping up my market beating week and looking forward to my week end ( you dont need to keep going on about your bet i have nothing to prove to anyone as i dont need to furnish an ego your have to take my word its true , im market beating ) but could you explain to us with maths how anyone can save 2000 a mth for investing with the cost of living costs etc what sort of starting sum your talking about and over what time frame.
also how do you pick your market winning stocks that you average down with in a bear market that will make you rich one day and how do you guarantee these stocks will do what you say.

have a good weekend sailor rob ill read your reply next week





Cheers Bull. Isn't every day a 'weekend' for you, surely you cannot have a normal job with your ability to both pick market-beating stocks and time the market. My bet is that you work your ** off all week doing well over 40 hours to pay for all the losses. My guess is you work as an English teacher in a High School or perhaps even University.


Just like to reply to a couple of your previous musings first, they were in Red if you remember.


what i said is correct

i said if you dont time and pick it right your be broke or poor in the long run.


So I think here you are saying that if you don't time and pick it right you will be broke or poor in the long run, meaning if you don't time the market right and pick the right stocks. Or said another way - if you index and don't try to time the market you will be broke and poor. And you said that 'this is correct'. Ok, thanks for these insights Bull. For those of you out there who are dollar cost averaging and not trying to pick when to buy and sell, you are all going to be either broke or poor. Don't say you were not warned.


I like to think i can be one of your 1% who can find the right stock eg apple a $1000 investment in apple 40 yrs ago is now worth 1.4 m roughly now this is just 1 example of many.

the risk is picking the right stock.



Do you just Bull. I like to think a lot of things as well. Unfortunately liking to think and actually doing something are two very different things.


you obviously havnt heard of Renaissance Technologies 66% annual returns for over 20 yrs


Yes James Simons, I wouldn't take a bet against him although I'd still be confident he couldn't time the market. Renaissance are a black box and who knows what leverage they use, they were recently invested in Berkshire. They cannot employ much capital though for the obvious reason that if they could they would soon exceed the size of the world's economy. Starting with a billion dollars, which would be small for a US fund and compounding at 66% for 20 years would be 381 Trillion dollars, or 4 times the size of the world's economy. Starting with 10 million would end up 4 trillion.


I could show i beat the index over time and im sure there are many other could prove it too. i dont invest based on picking exact top or bottoms but my educated guess on such matters has been fairly good. also saying comments like this implies you have never met anyone who can consistantly beat an index. im sure no one will ever say they can pick tops or bottoms to a tee


Yes there are many who can beat the indexes over time and perhaps you are one. What I said and what I have offered to bet however is that you cannot time the market as well as buy market beating stocks. They are two very different things.

but could you explain to us with maths how anyone can save 2000 a mth for investing with the cost of living costs etc what sort of starting sum your talking about and over what time frame.



Starting sum I'm talking about is obviously zero. And I believe I clearly stipulated the time frame. Surely to god you can work out the rest. Just use a compound interest rate calculator or build one and plug in an annual addition of $25,000 over the time frames I suggested. The most relevant question to be asked is what rate I am assuming. I'll let you figure it out but It's less than the market return over the last decade or so.


As for explaining how anyone can save 2000 a Month. Well the median hourly wage is currently around $30. If you are keen to save then you could work say 50 hours a week, which would mean taking home 5000/month. Leaving 3000 a Month for living expenses. For couples this could double. Plenty of options for flatting in the Provinces, living like people did in the 70's when they were quite happy I'm told. Lots of options if you really want. I have lived on a boat for 13 years for example. All depends on how much you really want to save 2000/month. Even a couple on minimum wage take home over 6000/month.


also how do you pick your market winning stocks that you average down with in a bear market that will make you rich one day and how do you guarantee these stocks will do what you say.



I'm really not sure you're all with it Bull. I'm not advocating for trying to pick 'market winning' stocks or averaging down in a bear market. I'm advocating buying 'the market' using a low fee index fund and just buying every week/month no matter what and reinvesting dividends as they come. Thus mathematically getting the market return. Not doing what your article suggested and investing a lump sum at one time with no further reinvestment.


I understand you can't be bothered getting 50k to a charity of your choice but perhaps you could just tell us the following;

Over what time period have you 'beat the market' and which market are you talking about. Is this including any cash you held through this period? What was the markets return over this period and are you using time weighted or money weighted returns?

[bull....]

Cheers Bull. Isn't every day a 'weekend' for you, surely you cannot have a normal job with your ability to both pick market-beating stocks and time the market. My bet is that you work your ** off all week doing well over 40 hours to pay for all the losses. My guess is you work as an English teacher in a High School or perhaps even University.


Just like to reply to a couple of your previous musings first, they were in Red if you remember.


what i said is correct

i said if you dont time and pick it right your be broke or poor in the long run.

So I think here you are saying that if you don't time and pick it right you will be broke or poor in the long run, meaning if you don't time the market right and pick the right stocks. Or said another way - if you index and don't try to time the market you will be broke and poor. And you said that 'this is correct'. Ok, thanks for these insights Bull. For those of you out there who are dollar cost averaging and not trying to pick when to buy and sell, you are all going to be either broke or poor. Don't say you were not warned.


I like to think i can be one of your 1% who can find the right stock eg apple a $1000 investment in apple 40 yrs ago is now worth 1.4 m roughly now this is just 1 example of many.

the risk is picking the right stock.


Do you just Bull. I like to think a lot of things as well. Unfortunately liking to think and actually doing something are two very different things.


you obviously havnt heard of Renaissance Technologies 66% annual returns for over 20 yrs


Yes James Simons, I wouldn't take a bet against him although I'd still be confident he couldn't time the market. Renaissance are a black box and who knows what leverage they use, they were recently invested in Berkshire. They cannot employ much capital though for the obvious reason that if they could they would soon exceed the size of the world's economy. Starting with a billion dollars, which would be small for a US fund and compounding at 66% for 20 years would be 381 Trillion dollars, or 4 times the size of the world's economy. Starting with 10 million would end up 4 trillion.


I could show i beat the index over time and im sure there are many other could prove it too. i dont invest based on picking exact top or bottoms but my educated guess on such matters has been fairly good. also saying comments like this implies you have never met anyone who can consistantly beat an index. im sure no one will ever say they can pick tops or bottoms to a tee


Yes there are many who can beat the indexes over time and perhaps you are one. What I said and what I have offered to bet however is that you cannot time the market as well as buy market beating stocks. They are two very different things.

but could you explain to us with maths how anyone can save 2000 a mth for investing with the cost of living costs etc what sort of starting sum your talking about and over what time frame.



Starting sum I'm talking about is obviously zero. And I believe I clearly stipulated the time frame. Surely to god you can work out the rest. Just use a compound interest rate calculator or build one and plug in an annual addition of $25,000 over the time frames I suggested. The most relevant question to be asked is what rate I am assuming. I'll let you figure it out but It's less than the market return over the last decade or so.


As for explaining how anyone can save 2000 a Month. Well the median hourly wage is currently around $30. If you are keen to save then you could work say 50 hours a week, which would mean taking home 5000/month. Leaving 3000 a Month for living expenses. For couples this could double. Plenty of options for flatting in the Provinces, living like people did in the 70's when they were quite happy I'm told. Lots of options if you really want. I have lived on a boat for 13 years for example. All depends on how much you really want to save 2000/month. Even a couple on minimum wage take home over 6000/month.


also how do you pick your market winning stocks that you average down with in a bear market that will make you rich one day and how do you guarantee these stocks will do what you say.



I'm really not sure you're all with it Bull. I'm not advocating for trying to pick 'market winning' stocks or averaging down in a bear market. I'm advocating buying 'the market' using a low fee index fund and just buying every week/month no matter what and reinvesting dividends as they come. Thus mathematically getting the market return. Not doing what your article suggested and investing a lump sum at one time with no further reinvestment.


I understand you can't be bothered getting 50k to a charity of your choice but perhaps you could just tell us the following;

Over what time period have you 'beat the market' and which market are you talking about. Is this including any cash you held through this period? What was the markets return over this period and are you using time weighted or money weighted returns?

with market beating returns you are correct any day of the week could be a weekend if you choose and no im no where near retired or do i work for anyone.
i stand by my claim pick the wrong stock and your be poor or broke. just ask many investors who averaged down in chase corp etc etc etc or certain dotcom stocks etc etc
i said one of the 1% because my investment style doesnt involve doing that but i look at it and think that would be nice to do that
i answered your question and said i dont time market top or bottom. and also agreed with you that i dont think its possible to do that to a tee all the time. maybe you might once thru luck.
money going to charrity is always good but do you realise how much an audit of an traders accounts cost i got a quote yrs ago from a big 4 when i thought of starting a fund and it was 7000 per yr hate to think of the cost now.
any person i guess who sells or buys a stock could be considered timing a market. just like you did with stu or are you not going to admit your transaction involved timing the market when you brought and when you sold. remember your already answered this on the threads so think carefully how you answer.


as for comprehension of compounding and the effects of negative yrs on this ( dont use a compound calculator thats not real life ) and your lack of reality in regards to the cost of living for most people i suggest you do more homework. I mean who starts investing with zero dollars lol
Also you didnt really answer my question.

how about we approach this another way and discuss a topic at a time , this better suit you as you.
take the article i posted about buy and hold investing being not the holy grail way to riches even with compounding and averaging down ( you keep saying this is the way )and why dont you or anyone for that matter pick it to bits. remember the article based on facts.

Buy And Hold Investing. Is It A One Size Fits All Solution
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/buy-and-hold-investing-is-it-a-one-size-fits-all-solution/

[SailorRob]

what a start to the year for the us, (nz bit soft ) markets still cheap earnings gonna drive it this year ( walmart just the start ) infrastructure bill this year ( really need it ) more regulation relaxation , gdp getting up to 3% , stockmarket 30k , global growth reving up, did ya know even with rates moving up a tad is good for market , rock on , anyway of again this week setting up my new 12 screen trading room.:)


Bull, please accept my apologies.

Throughout all of this I never realised that you had a 12 screen trading room set up, and that was in 2018. You probably have 36 screen set up now at a minimum.

Had I known any of this I would not be so stupid as to be arguing with you!

Would you consider investing money on my behalf? There will be many others interested too.

If you write a book, I'll be the first to buy it, I doubt it would need proof reading you could just publish it straight off the pen.

[Mafman]

[/COLOR]

Bull, please accept my apologies.

Throughout all of this I never realised that you had a 12 screen trading room set up, and that was in 2018. You probably have 36 screen set up now at a minimum.

Had I known any of this I would not be so stupid as to be arguing with you!

Would you consider investing money on my behalf? There will be many others interested too.

If you write a book, I'll be the first to buy it, I doubt it would need proof reading you could just publish it straight off the pen.

Do I hear the clunk of $50000 being deposited?

[bull....]

big week this week. fed meeting

sp500 closed below 3900 support friday perhaps on the fedex news or perhaps options exp so lets see if it can reclaim it tonight if not i reckon the test of the lows is coming at some stage.

anyway i see as i type bitcoin 19k support has given way causing futures to follow.

[alokdhir]

Hope FED goes full 1% to show their utmost resolve to crush Inflation sooner then latter . That will be best for markets eventually

We dont want half hearted lingering fight ...go all in and get it done sooner then market thinks !!!

[Muse]

Hope FED goes full 1% to show their utmost resolve to crush Inflation sooner then latter . That will be best for markets eventually

We dont want half hearted lingering fight ...go all in and get it done sooner then market thinks !!!

Agreed - get on with it!

Even if they get to the same end point - why dither along the way.

Alokdhir for Fed Governor, I say!

[Jaa]

Hope FED goes full 1% to show their utmost resolve to crush Inflation sooner then latter . That will be best for markets eventually

We dont want half hearted lingering fight ...go all in and get it done sooner then market thinks !!!

No way they do that with mid terms close, maybe after Nov 8?

[LEMON]

No way they do that with mid terms close, maybe after Nov 8?

Why would they wait till after Nov? They want demand smashed today as inflation still runs rampant

.75 hike including the september QT is about a 1%

[Bobdn]

NZD close to GFC lows. Pretty cool.

[Habits]

Kiwi dollar down across the board, below 0.59 usd. May mean higher nz ocr as this low currency, set to trend lower, means more inflation.

[bull....]

banana republic stuff lol ..... guess the takeover of the nzx companies getting cheaper all the time ie pushpay ?
thats why its cool to have some cash in your portfolio in US dollars this yr until its not

US 10yr hitting new highs TOO all flow thru to nz rates soon where expecting new highs at some stage when ORR relizes nz inflation not coming down enough

anyway at the end of the day with a fed meeting this week whatever he says has the potential to move markets both ways

[causecelebre]

...anyway at the end of the day with a fed meeting this week whatever he says has the potential to move markets both ways

yeah not really about how much (.75 or 1.0 has already been priced in I would think) but more so the the tone of Powells speech

[SailorRob]

NZD close to GFC lows. Pretty cool.

A full 20% higher than GFC low. Not sure you call that close. Hopefully will get close or below though.

[Bobdn]

Yes you are right. In November 2008 it was where it is now. But then there was that whoosh down in December and February before it popped back up, same with US shares of course.

So not the GFC lows as such but lower today than we were for most of the GFC. I see the NZD was higher when Lehman collapsed compared to today.

[SailorRob]

Yes you are right. In November 2008 it was where it is now. But then there was that whoosh down in December and February before it popped back up, same with US shares of course.

So not the GFC lows as such but lower today than we were for most of the GFC. I see the NZD was higher when Lehman collapsed compared to today.

Yeah very true, so what you're saying is correct, bloody interesting alright. Our balance of payments isn't helping. Hard to see it not going a lot lower if things get ugly or even if we see new lows stateside. Unfortunately NOBODY knows...

[blackcap]

0.75 as expected but markets drop instantly on the move. Tone must be hawkish.

[bull....]

0.75 as expected but markets drop instantly on the move. Tone must be hawkish.

higher for longer

[alokdhir]

3.25 % has come ...terminal is 4.6% in most hawkish terms ...Almost all is priced in or will be shortly ....then what ? ....Sideways or slow grind up

My money is on ... after October bottom then slow grind up !!!

[bull....]

need to adjust all those DCF equity valuations with a higher terminal rate :scared:

[alokdhir]

10 year US Bonds are coming down in yield as market pays attention to FED saying big slowdown and unemployment ahead ....in other words they have clearly admitted recession ahead ....actually maybe sooner then they think at present .

10 year rates decides DCF not 2 or 3 year rates ...so thats maybe the reason stocks bouncing back from initial lows after FED announcement

Buying long dated bonds maybe the smartest play at this time

" No matter what plot shows , FED will ultimately raise rates enough to bring Inflation down "

This Powell statement is powerful projection of FEDs resolve to tackle Inflation ...clearly stating state of economy is secondary thus Inevitable Recession very much predicted and accepted . 10 Year reaction showing that

[bull....]

sp500 been trying all week to get back above 3900 with no success .... new lows coming ?

[alokdhir]

Most likely ...hopefully capitulation happens to 3400 ....all are waiting for that as sign of end game

NZD heading towards 0.55 USD levels predicted long time back ...as rates outlook very different for USA and NZ markets

NZ economy fully diverging from US ahead ...also we react much faster to higher rates then US

[winner69]

Most likely ...hopefully capitulation happens to 3400 ....all are waiting for that as sign of end game

So that 2800 which was touted by a lot of gurus not going to happen

Cool

[alokdhir]

So that 2800 which was touted by a lot of gurus not going to happen

Cool

2800 or only 800 ...all can happen if Mr Putin does what he is saying mate ...West is leaving a maniac with no choice but to go down with a bang ...Big Bang is the most worrisome signs ahead ...forget the rates and inflation ...

[bull....]

gundlach on cnbc saying equities still very expensive based on current bond rates , he's another guru saying sp500 3000

nzx must be way overvalued when our bonds go to 5

[alokdhir]

Today Australia in mourning ...so NZX will be lonely ...can expect low volumes big moves ...

Why cant we decide to mourn together ...after all Queen was same for both of us !!!!

[alokdhir]

gundlach on cnbc saying equities still very expensive based on current bond rates , he's another guru saying sp500 3000

nzx must be way overvalued when our bonds go to 5

If and when our Bonds go to 5 % buddy ...its 10 year we talking about not 2 or 3 years

Last I checked US 10 year yields actually dropped today !!!!

[bull....]

didnt you hear powell tell ORR he needs to raise rates more

[alokdhir]

didnt you hear powell tell ORR he needs to raise rates more

NZ doesn't live in USA mate ...Did Powell tell NZX to rise when US markets were rising in 2021 ...also Did he stop Orr raising rates in Oct 2021 ?

NZ is way ahead of USA in inflation fight ...U keep equating both ...which is not the case

[bull....]

nah i reckon orr behind the curve , inflation in nz be sticky which means orr have to say higher for longer blah blah blah nzd making our job harder blah blah blah

nzx way overvalued moving down about the pace we build stuff

[alokdhir]

nah i reckon orr behind the curve , inflation in nz be sticky which means orr have to say higher for longer blah blah blah nzd making our job harder blah blah blah

nzx way overvalued moving down about the pace we build stuff

Ok as u say ...Let time decide that argument ...No worries

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/continuous-disclosure-central-banks-wont-walk-all-the-talk/H2KA4LYIXN33HVHMLG7ZFDRBK4/

Most likely to happen !!!

[bull....]

dont fight the fed

[SailorRob]

need to adjust all those DCF equity valuations with a higher terminal rate :scared:

What is a terminal rate in a DCF? Do you mean terminal value? If so why higher? Or do you mean DISCOUNT rate?

[SailorRob]

Yes you are right. In November 2008 it was where it is now. But then there was that whoosh down in December and February before it popped back up, same with US shares of course.

So not the GFC lows as such but lower today than we were for most of the GFC. I see the NZD was higher when Lehman collapsed compared to today.

Just had a closer look. For almost all of the 7 Months from November 2008 to May 2009 it traded below today. Broke 49c intraday in March 2009,

[bull....]

What is a terminal rate in a DCF? Do you mean terminal value? If so why higher? Or do you mean DISCOUNT rate?

terminal rate is to do with the fed so the rate will effect growth calc's in a dcf

[Tomtom]

I'll believe we have inflation under control when I see back-to-back quarters of declining tradable and non-tradable inflation. Talk is cheap.

[alokdhir]

I'll believe we have inflation under control when I see back-to-back quarters of declining tradable and non-tradable inflation. Talk is cheap.

When u see that all market will also see that ...

If u need to have first mover advantage in stock markets then need to learn to anticipate future data with some certainty

[winner69]

Job numbers data just put in US look pretty good

[alokdhir]

Job numbers data just put in US look pretty good

Initial Jobless claims being little less then forecast showing very sticky employment status which is leading to higher rates for longer theme ....10year jumps big time today ....market thinks recession not easy to get ...FED will work harder to get it . Almost certainty of Hard Landing at least in USA in next 6-9 months

Doom data at peak ...Next 4 weeks should see significant bottom .

NZ is totally different picture ...our 10 year still below last peak ...our Index still just 3% below recent peak . Will we do catch up with US or chart our own course

As now the defensive and high yield nature of NZX comes to our rescue which didnt help in 2021 when USA was going up as growth oriented market

IMO USA will see much more pain then us but they do sour the sentiment worldwide

[bull....]

those US bond yields much higher today , guess it feed thru to NZ bonds at some stage

[alokdhir]

those US bond yields much higher today , guess it feed thru to NZ bonds at some stage

Why u think they will feed thru to NZ ? Do we have 1-1 correlation in economy terms ? Did they ever feed thru to Japanese Bonds ?

All economies have their own nature ....though I agree it will sour the sentiment and will have some rub on effect but it seems our economy is not strong enough to withstand such high rates ...US economy is showing much better strength thus needing stronger medicine

NZD lower does put pressure on imported inflation but NZD is down just on rates outlook differential and outlook ahead ...raising rates to match USA will not happen as it will crush us

[winner69]

Is going ‘defensive’ (stocks that is) a strategy to minimise possible losses (or at the very best low total positive returns)

Seems a picking a few winners might be better strategy (not all stocks will go down) so better study up and find one or two

[alokdhir]

Is going ‘defensive’ (stocks that is) a strategy to minimise possible losses (or at the very best low total positive returns)

Seems a picking a few winners might be better strategy (not all stocks will go down) so better study up and find one or two

Was talking of general markets ...NZ vs US ....But surely can try stock picking like FPH , MFT and SUM ....lol

[Panda-NZ-]

You can short.. but its like holding something radioactive (of the kind Putin is familiar with).

Find some sector or stock that has peaked and is destined to go down from inflation + rates like biotech.

[SailorRob]

Why u think they will feed thru to NZ ? Do we have 1-1 correlation in economy terms ? Did they ever feed thru to Japanese Bonds ?

All economies have their own nature ....though I agree it will sour the sentiment and will have some rub on effect but it seems our economy is not strong enough to withstand such high rates ...US economy is showing much better strength thus needing stronger medicine

NZD lower does put pressure on imported inflation but NZD is down just on rates outlook differential and outlook ahead ...raising rates to match USA will not happen as it will crush us


Would anyone lend to Jacinda at lower rates than Uncle Sam?

Look at NZ bond yields and trend them against the US. They trade in lockstep with an appropriate spread.

No way can US rates rise and not feed through to ours, not unless big Grunta calms down and Orr buys every last one

[SailorRob]

terminal rate is to do with the fed so the rate will effect growth calc's in a dcf


So what actually is the definition of the terminal rate?

I'm very familiar with 'terminal value' and 'discount rate' but have never heard of a 'terminal rate'

[alokdhir]

Would anyone lend to Jacinda at lower rates than Uncle Sam?

Look at NZ bond yields and trend them against the US. They trade in lockstep with an appropriate spread.

No way can US rates rise and not feed through to ours, not unless big Grunta calms down and Orr buys every last one

We have our own pool of term deposits funds of $ 180 Billion ...if mortgage take drys as its happening now and it becomes cheaper to borrow local then why will market or banks look to borrow from overseas .

This is not happening for the first time ...so it will play out in similar ways ...there are market forces at play ...demand and supply pressures will decide what levels economy can bear ...Japan is a shining example

[causecelebre]

When u see that all market will also see that ...

If u need to have first mover advantage in stock markets then need to learn to anticipate future data with some certainty

Exactly, Mr market will be well invested before inflation appears to be under control.

[bull....]

NZ bond yields have jumped already this morning to 4.11 from 4.01 yesterday

[bull....]

So what actually is the definition of the terminal rate?

I'm very familiar with 'terminal value' and 'discount rate' but have never heard of a 'terminal rate'

you should use google more its a wonderful tool

[FTG]

A few touch points to keep in mind when considering financial 'cause & effect' relationships; especially correlations with the USA money market...


- Despite the attempt of some (Chinese etc) to dance to the beat of their own financial drums, over 70% of the transactions that occur on the planet are still in USD.
- The US Fed has continued to massively expand their Balance Sheet. This accelerated exponentially pre-Covid (from Sept 2019) AND further from when the 'Covid crash' commenced.
- Despite current 'fed talk' of entering a period of QT, M2 (Money supply) is still increasing at a great speed of knots.
- As an aside; meanwhile 'velocity of money' has continued to decelerate, and could be best described as anemic.
- An absolute monster lurks:Total credit (e.g. interest rate swaps) & currency derivatives in the US now exceed US$600 TRILLION.

- For decades NZ has, & continues to, source the majority of it's debt (public & private) from overseas. With the clear majority of that still coming from......yes you've got it, the USA.
- A key function feeding into Bond pricing is risk. The higher the perceived risk, the higher the expected IR. With the NZ economy being like a pimple on the side of an elephant....need I write more.
- Exacerbating the situation, Robertson decides to take NZ on a massive debt 'gorging session'. In fact with such loose abandon, that we could 'proudly' claim to be in the top 3 globally (as a % of GDP) for Balance Sheet expansion - reacting to Covid.

So is there a meaningful correlation between US & NZ money markets? Absolutely!

Furthermore, as NZ's perceived risk profile deteriorates (eventually flowing through to S&P etc country credit ratings), that Interest rate premium will continue to lift. Remembering also, for each cent the NZD falls, the country's funding costs increase.

[Panda-NZ-]

Though given inflation has been 7% and in 2020 you could lock in a 1% 10 year bond you're better off in real terms by 6%.

I think much more should have been borrowed in 2020. Though it should now be avoided where possible, even if it's real terms positive for now. The opportunity is gone.

[Panda-NZ-]

NZ will be in surplus in 2024.. something I believe will happen since tax rates haven't changed much for 20 years.