Black Monday

[Hoop]

I'm not a big proponent of the RBNZ - but they did raise interest rates before almost everyone else. So, that's good, relatively.
Yes, to their credit they did the right thing.. it must be remembered that NZ's Economic cycle matured earlier than other countries and so text-bookwise NZ should have been (and was) the first to rise rates. At the time it raised critical media eyebrows around the world including some of our media in NZ.. ..However, in my opinion they scored a D (fail) back in 2021 when after the good work of pouring huge amounts of money to prevent a certain financial disaster, they failed to cut back on that huge easing and instead continued to overcook monetary easing with the fiscal "pouring petrol on the fire" help from the Government. In RBNZ defense most other 1st world central banks did the same at the same time...so as a result we are now globally all experiencing similar if not the same problems....

The big if comes into play because it never happened...but what might have happened if they didn't pour huge amounts of money into the system at that time..would we be experiencing a great recession, or depression now?

[Muse]

Yes, to their credit they did the right thing.. it must be remembered that NZ's Economic cycle matured earlier than other countries and so text-bookwise NZ should have been (and was) the first to rise rates. At the time it raised critical media eyebrows around the world including some of our media in NZ.. ..However, in my opinion they scored a D (fail) back in 2021 when after the good work of pouring huge amounts of money to prevent a certain financial disaster, they failed to cut back on that huge easing and instead continued to overcook monetary easing with the fiscal "pouring petrol on the fire" help from the Government. In RBNZ defense most other 1st world central banks did the same at the same time...so as a result we are now globally all experiencing similar if not the same problems....

The big if comes into play because it never happened...but what might have happened if they didn't pour huge amounts of money into the system at that time..would we be experiencing a great recession, or depression now?

I reckon its easy to criticise in retrospect - the whole global system was on the precipice of collapse in March/April 2020, and a genuine depression looked likely. So we did what we had to do, and we made a few policy mistakes along the way. And inflation is a cumulative game, not just a this years game....we spent the last 13 years wanting more inflation, which never came. Aggregate prices measured in 2009 dollars are probably in line with to lower now than if we had experienced 2.5%-3% inflation over the last 13 years. We've had a remarkable run, we just need to get ontop and stay ontop of inflation until its back in its bottle.

[SailorRob]

I reckon its easy to criticise in retrospect - the whole global system was on the precipice of collapse in March/April 2020, and a genuine depression looked likely. So we did what we had to do, and we made a few policy mistakes along the way. And inflation is a cumulative game, not just a this years game....we spent the last 13 years wanting more inflation, which never came. Aggregate prices measured in 2009 dollars are probably in line with to lower now than if we had experienced 2.5%-3% inflation over the last 13 years. We've had a remarkable run, we just need to get ontop and stay ontop of inflation until its back in its bottle.


I don't disagree Moose.

BUT...

Everyone has forgotten that Orr and his waka paddle (pun intended) was preparing the banking system for negative rates in 2019 and doing massive aggressive rate cuts in 2019...

Nobody ever talks about that. The state we were in Pre Covid.

[SailorRob]

Bernie Madoff.


Madoff was doing over 20, like clock work. Or so people thought

Your response is interesting as the SP500 long term return over basically any time period in history is 10%.

So dollar cost average into it and you will have a very high chance of achieving your Madoff return and being able to amass a large fortune if you are young enough.

What I am saying is that compounding at 10% for multiple decades isn't the stuff of Madoff but perfectly normal. Less taxes and fees of course.

[SailorRob]

I'm scared as hell right now - but not knowing, fully, *why* lol.

Is it rational to run terrified out of the Supermarket when they are having a massive sale?

Nope.

You should have been FAR more scared at the beginning of the year when prices were much higher.

Now the risks are significantly lower.

Relax Azz.

[SailorRob]

Yes very spooky. Returning to the norm of 8-9% margins would drop earnings by 30% or so :scared:

Yes and long term margins are in fact significantly lower than 8-9% I believe, more like 6%

Warren himself has said that he would find it hard to believe that margins could stay elevated for long periods of time due to competition between labour and capital and between companies. He strongly believes in margin mean reversion (or he did).

The issue is that if you have elevated margins and elevated multiples to those margins you can have a double whammy, big reductions in earnings and big reduction in PE's to those earnings. Investing at times when it's opposite of this is when you will get really rich. So washed out margins and washed out multiples to them, AKA 1982. Or Latin America and some other EM's now.

The effect of the margins on the multiples can most easily be seen in the Price to Sales ratio, as this incorporates them both.

It's also a very quick and easy BS sniff test for an individual company. Better still is Enterprise Value to Sales, as this will show you the total capital that needs a return (both debt and equity) against the total pool of money able to provide it. For example Refining NZ, now Channel Infrastructure.... Will end up with an EV of 8-900 million and only has 100 million in total revenue to provide cash to the 8-900 million of capital. Margins better be damn high.

One explanation for the margins (which have been elevated for at least 20 years) not mean reverting is the amount of capital required to produce the returns has also increased. I can provide much more detail for anyone interested.

[Baa_Baa]

I can provide much more detail for anyone interested.

I'm interested, we need to shift our mindset to investing in the good times, when prices are low.

[Hoop]

I reckon its easy to criticise in retrospect - the whole global system was on the precipice of collapse in March/April 2020, and a genuine depression looked likely. So we did what we had to do, and we made a few policy mistakes along the way. And inflation is a cumulative game, not just a this years game....we spent the last 13 years wanting more inflation, which never came. Aggregate prices measured in 2009 dollars are probably in line with to lower now than if we had experienced 2.5%-3% inflation over the last 13 years. We've had a remarkable run, we just need to get ontop and stay ontop of inflation until its back in its bottle.

Yep agree.

[Bobdn]

Jesus, it looks like the NZD is heading towards 60 cents USD. Fortunately against the Euro it's remaining steady and a cheap bottle of wine, in the small EU country I'm visiting, is still $2.85 NZD and a latte is still $1.85 NZD.

Is it just me or is NZ obscenely expensive? Is the cost of living in NZ, to quote that Pretty Woman scene where Edward is helping Julia Roberts buy clothes in the high end store, "profane or really offensive". I think it's really offensive.

Honestly, and please excuse my language, it's a piss take.

[clearasmud]

So is Australia. Latte where I live starts at $aud4.60.
Numbeo.com still estimates Australia is about 5% more expensive than NZ however wages are 25% higher.

[Bobdn]

Quite right, Clearasmud.

I'm old and decrepit. But no NZer under 40 should be working in NZ with Australia right there.

[Tomtom]

Is it just me or is NZ obscenely expensive? It's getting that way, the situation in housing and excess migration hasn't helped.

Many European countries don't charge sales tax on essentials like food so comparisons are difficult across those items. I love Mediterranean Europe but unfortunately those countries are shuffling toward a financial collapse by clinging to the Euro.

[bull....]

not a good start to the earnings period

JPMorgan Chase earnings fell 28% after building reserves for bad loans, bank suspends buybacks
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/14/jpmorgan-jpm-2q-2022-earnings.html

[alokdhir]

Waves of selling especially on Nasdaq getting absorbed again and again ...3800 SPX holding strong and US markets refused to make new lows for present

Showing some strength also knowing fully well all the difficulties ahead ...at present Market looking thru difficult 6-12 months ahead and coming to collective wisdom conclusion that stocks rightly priced already for whats ahead .

Good part is market senses recession ahead which limits the rise of long term rates and eventually will lead to rate cuts in the short end also

Strong commitment of FED to fight inflation is liked a lot by market ...100 Bps rise on 27th July will be rejoiced not feared as it limits the life of inflation and high rates

[bull....]

Waves of selling especially on Nasdaq getting absorbed again and again ...3800 SPX holding strong and US markets refused to make new lows for present

Showing some strength also knowing fully well all the difficulties ahead ...at present Market looking thru difficult 6-12 months ahead and coming to collective wisdom conclusion that stocks rightly priced already for whats ahead .




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6Xo21L0ybE

[winner69]

Copper rout continues .....usually signals bad economic times globally .....like recessions

[kiora]

And lumber futures

[SailorRob]

Citibank CEO latest earnings call. Many of the companies are reporting similar.

Little of the data I see tells me the U.S. is on the cusp of a recession. Consumer spending remains well above pre-COVID levels with household savings providing a cushion for future stress. And as any employer will tell you, the job market remains very tight.
Similarly, our corporate clients see robust demand and healthy balance sheet with revenue softness attributed to supply chain constraints so far. So, while a recession could indeed take place over the next two years in the U.S., it's highly unlikely to be a sharper downturn as others in recent memory.

[alokdhir]

Copper rout continues .....usually signals bad economic times globally .....like recessions

That is also in anticipation only at the moment ...ie its market taking a call on future recession not actually means it will happen or will be as bad as being anticipated at the moment .

But it remains very clear to me that Central Banks especially FED ( which matters the most ) are super serious about Inflation and they will do anything which mainly is raising rates and cut money supply to do demand destruction that will eventually lead to much worse economic scene ahead ie more unemployment and slower growth etc ...there is no way Inflation can be controlled without causing pain .

Main issue being will the patient respond quickly and close their wallets or they will resist longer and need higher dosage of bitter medicine .

Future looking indicators are turning red while present seems to be going well in real economies ...we need to see pain starting to appear in real economy too not only in future indicators or projections

NZ economy will respond faster as we started our medicine first and we never went berserk like USA . IMO NZX may outperform others in time ahead for two main reasons ...one being above mentioned second being the defensive nature of our market full of dividend payers etc

Also rates outlook for USA maybe much higher then NZ so NZD reaching 0.55 is a distinct possibility sometime ahead

[bull....]

yesterday offered a nice bounce off the bottom of the range today

range currently roughly just over 3700 - just over 3900

[SailorRob]

That is also in anticipation only at the moment ...ie its market taking a call on future recession not actually means it will happen or will be as bad as being anticipated at the moment .

But it remains very clear to me that Central Banks especially FED ( which matters the most ) are super serious about Inflation and they will do anything which mainly is raising rates and cut money supply to do demand destruction that will eventually lead to much worse economic scene ahead ie more unemployment and slower growth etc ...there is no way Inflation can be controlled without causing pain .

Main issue being will the patient respond quickly and close their wallets or they will resist longer and need higher dosage of bitter medicine .

Future looking indicators are turning red while present seems to be going well in real economies ...we need to see pain starting to appear in real economy too not only in future indicators or projections

NZ economy will respond faster as we started our medicine first and we never went berserk like USA . IMO NZX may outperform others in time ahead for two main reasons ...one being above mentioned second being the defensive nature of our market full of dividend payers etc

Also rates outlook for USA maybe much higher then NZ so NZD reaching 0.55 is a distinct possibility sometime ahead


Mate, they are SUPER serious alright.

ECB rate is -0.5% (that's negative)

FED is 1.5 so they are holding rates at -7.5% real...

All central banks are holding rates deeply negative and will continue to do so.

All central banks are fighting DEFLATION not inflation.

Inflation is the answer to all their problems. Higher rates are the last thing they want, but they also don't want the political pressure so will try and ride the edge.

Asset prices fall with leveraged system such as it is and she's all over. Italy and Greece wiped out.

[Panda-NZ-]

Many European countries don't charge sales tax on essentials like food so comparisons are difficult across those items. I love Mediterranean Europe but unfortunately those countries are shuffling toward a financial collapse by clinging to the Euro.

NZers like to drink their pain away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APxm5kDCUik

So delegats group may be a good bet with the dollar going lower too.

[Balance]

Mate, they are SUPER serious alright.

ECB rate is -0.5% (that's negative)

FED is 1.5 so they are holding rates at -7.5% real...

All central banks are holding rates deeply negative and will continue to do so.

All central banks are fighting DEFLATION not inflation.

Inflation is the answer to all their problems. Higher rates are the last thing they want, but they also don't want the political pressure so will try and ride the edge.

Asset prices fall with leveraged system such as it is and she's all over. Italy and Greece wiped out.

Excellent point.

[SailorRob]

By lowering rates so aggressively in 2019, Orr was attempting to prevent market forces from working against weak,high cost and leveraged enterprises/households. Recessions and depressions are necessary.

Bailouts of governments,lenders, investors and companies fosters overbuilding and mal-investment. Why not build or buy, regardless ofunacceptable returns, if you know a bailout is right around the corner when times get tough? The lesson will eventually be that no level of interest rates can permanently preventmarket cycles from doing their job. They can only protract the day of reckoning.

This is what I mean by current policy actually trying to prevent market forces, i.e. fighting deflation.

[Azz]

Is it rational to run terrified out of the Supermarket when they are having a massive sale?

Nope.

You should have been FAR more scared at the beginning of the year when prices were much higher.

Now the risks are significantly lower.

Relax Azz.

I'm plenty relaxed. My Bitcoin $20k bottom call so far looks to be right! And the market itself for this specific coin is very stable and virtually no fear. Some people have completely misread the crypto market; what's actually happened in the bear is very good for Bitcoin: it's held strong, it's held share across cryptos, and a lot of the crypto junk has been destroyed. And $20k, if it is bottom in this cycle, was actually the all time high before the last one. $20k is a great price for "rat poison". (Bitcoin haters, you've said it all before, just see if you can control yourselves and not make stupid and delusional statements such as, "It's worth nothing.")

For stocks, as I've stated a number of times, Bitcoin provides some form of correlation, currently. I've already bought stocks recently, and I'm holding off until August/September for the next lot.

Re the scared comment, what I really meant was the graph posted here *looked* scary but I didn't have enough info/explanation/opinion on what was being represented.

[SailorRob]

I'm plenty relaxed. My Bitcoin $20k bottom call so far looks to be right! And the market itself for this specific coin is very stable and virtually no fear. Some people have completely misread the crypto market; what's actually happened in the bear is very good for Bitcoin: it's held strong, it's held share across cryptos, and a lot of the crypto junk has been destroyed. And $20k, if it is bottom in this cycle, was actually the all time high before the last one. $20k is a great price for "rat poison". (Bitcoin haters, you've said it all before, just see if you can control yourselves and not make stupid and delusional statements such as, "It's worth nothing.")

For stocks, as I've stated a number of times, Bitcoin provides some form of correlation, currently. I've already bought stocks recently, and I'm holding off until August/September for the next lot.

Re the scared comment, what I really meant was the graph posted here *looked* scary but I didn't have enough info/explanation/opinion on what was being represented.

Yeah good one mate.

Pretty sure nobody wants to hear your *hitcoin pumping.

We do ask that you don't dissappear in the aftermath so we can laugh at you some more.

[Habits]

Oil up a third from 12 months ago but down 25 percent from its highs. In USD. DJI lifting, maybe the worst over

[Azz]

Yeah good one mate.

Pretty sure nobody wants to hear your *hitcoin pumping.

We do ask that you don't dissappear in the aftermath so we can laugh at you some more.

If only one Bitoin hater - just one! - would provide a DATE to go along with their "going to zero" prediction, please. I'll be happy with a FIVE YEAR margin of error. Or you can be off by TEN YEARS. Just provide a date - because if you're unable to provide a date then your prediction is of no value whatsoever.

[SailorRob]

If only one Bitoin hater - just one! - would provide a DATE to go along with their "going to zero" prediction, please. I'll be happy with a FIVE YEAR margin of error. Or you can be off by TEN YEARS. Just provide a date - because if you're unable to provide a date then your prediction is of no value whatsoever.

Nobody knows what it will do... that's the point.

What I will guarantee though is that someone else will end up with your money, just as has happened in the past.

[Azz]

Nobody knows what it will do... that's the point.

Ok, I predict New Zealand will win the football (ie, not rugby) World Cup. I'm not going to say what year........

[Azz]

What I will guarantee though is that someone else will end up with your money, just as has happened in the past.

What does that mean? It doesn't make any sense.

[SailorRob]

What does that mean? It doesn't make any sense.

People like you are the entire point *hitcoin exists.

[Azz]

People like you are the entire point *hitcoin exists.

Why does New Zealand exist? Bitcoin's market cap is twice as big as New Zealand's GDP.

[Bobdn]

I was just reading the article in today's Guardian. I've just learnt that NZ is in the Top 3 for average daily cases per 100,000. I seriously had no idea. But what stunned me is the article saying NZ is in the top seven for deaths, according to Johns Hopkins data.

What impact will rampaging covid have on the economy? Is it possible that people will hunker down again and that this will actually be deflationary? Will the RBNZ continue to raise interest rates in this environment?

Are we in recession now?

I'm just thinking out loud. I'm 16 per cent exposed to the NZX and I have a house in NZ. In hindsight 16 per cent might be too much. I never rebalance my investments, I just let things grow or wither.

[Rawz]

COVID schmovid. I don’t know anyone that really cares about it nowadays apart from the aged members out of society.

Most people I know have had it and yes sick for a couple of days but majority just have bad cold and fatigued symptoms. So no, I cannot see any hunkering down going on. Not from the main spending groups anyway. Maybe the oldest demographic, but they don’t spend

[moose]

[QUOTE=Bobdn;966589]I was just reading the article in today's Guardian. I've just learnt that NZ is in the Top 3 for average daily cases per 100,000. I seriously had no idea. But what stunned me is the article saying NZ is in the top seven for deaths, according to Johns Hopkins data.

We've been in the top 5 for new cases since March and in the top 10 for deaths for weeks - its just not been reported in NZ. No commentary from the govt on this either - and probably also the reason why the PM has distanced herself from all things Covid recently - there's no political capital or international stardust to be gained from it!

[Rawz]

And the public isn’t interested..

[percy]

Wife and I had a very mild dose of Covid.Fully jabbed.Thank you NZ Govt.
People I know [oldies] have been very ill with it, and now most probably have long covid.Brother in law ended up in hospital.
The health system has collapsed,with operations put off,as staff are trying to cope withthe huge influx of Flu and Covid patients.
Made worse by the huge number medical people including doctors and nurses staff off sick.
Trying to make an appointment to see your doctor you may have to wait three weeks.
Emergency medical centres are like hospital emergency departments,out of control.

ps.A friend was left unattended at a medical centre in a cupboard sized room.After three hours he rang the panic button.No one came,so after another 10 minutes he rang it again.Still no help,so he thought he would make his way to the nurses' station.Collapsed and hit his head on the floor.Told he needed a MRI scan for head .Earliest for that would be three days.Rang his son who took him private that day.Luckily no brain damage.Back to the medical centre and another very long wait for the doctor.
Two weeks later his doctor finally fixed his out of control bleeding nose.

[Bjauck]

Wife and I had a very mild dose of Covid.Fully jabbed.Thank you NZ Govt.
People I know [oldies] have been very ill with it, and now most probably have long covid.Brother in law ended up in hospital.
The health system has collapsed,with operations put off,as staff are trying to cope withthe huge influx of Flu and Covid patients.
Made worse by the huge number medical people including doctors and nurses staff off sick.
Trying to make an appointment to see your doctor you may have to wait three weeks.
Emergency medical centres are like hospital emergency departments,out of control.

ps.A friend was left unattended at a medical centre in a cupboard sized room.After three hours he rang the panic button.No one came,so after another 10 minutes he rang it again.Still no help,so he thought he would make his way to the nurses' station.Collapsed and hit his head on the floor.Told he needed a MRI scan for head .Earliest for that would be three days.Rang his son who took him private that day.Luckily no brain damage.Back to the medical centre and another very long wait for the doctor.

I know someone in an Auckland hospital. Covid is in most wards, with more patients getting it. So if you are older and need to go to hospital, you will end up in a covid-hot spot. with the extra risk of an additional serious illness.

This is why NZers still need to wear masks. Our bare-bones health system needs protecting especially compared with better-funded services in Australia, Canada and even the UK.

[alokdhir]

Nz and Australia is showing what to come in northern hemisphere ahead ....FPH too beaten down maybe ...lol

Yes this point is valid that some slowdown in activity will be forced by rampant covid but it also does otherwise to mentality too ...spend while u can ...so people do try to overindulge . Know of many examples of people who went on overseas holidays especially to Europe ...got covid early on but carried on nonetheless as now people just dont care as they feel safe with vaccines ...for how long ? Vaccination is like fuel in tank which has finite life ...if we dont care to top up tank then one day it can come to haunt us

Healthcare system is 10% efficient now for help so depending on it and not your own wisdom and precautions is like playing with fire

[percy]

I know someone in an Auckland hospital. Covid is in most wards, with more patients getting it. So if you are older and need to go to hospital, you will end up in a covid-hot spot. with the extra risk of an additional serious illness.

This is why NZers still need to wear masks. Our bare-bones health system needs protecting especially compared with better-funded services in Australia, Canada and even the UK.

I have shares in an English based company that is listed on ASX.:DOC.
According to their comments their business is growing at a great rate as the English health system can not cope.

[winner69]

Obviously the inflation figure out tomorrow morning must be really really bad if the finance minister is preemptively announcing the continuation of fuel cuts and half price transport until 2023 .....

[blackcap]

[QUOTE=Bobdn;966589]I was just reading the article in today's Guardian. I've just learnt that NZ is in the Top 3 for average daily cases per 100,000. I seriously had no idea. But what stunned me is the article saying NZ is in the top seven for deaths, according to Johns Hopkins data.

We've been in the top 5 for new cases since March and in the top 10 for deaths for weeks - its just not been reported in NZ. No commentary from the govt on this either - and probably also the reason why the PM has distanced herself from all things Covid recently - there's no political capital or international stardust to be gained from it!

Yet we are one of the most highly vaccinated nations in the world. What is going on?

That aside, I see the thread is labelled Black Monday. Still fully invested in the market, however have not been adding to positions and short AIR since just before the capital raise. Might exit that position shortly as it does not look like the share price will fall much further.
Hard to work out the macro's of markets in this environment. Rising inflation has historically meant rising interest rates and consumers spending less the the E part of PE contracting.
This year we have seen the P part decline and the E part remain stable if not rising in a NZ context. Will the real hurt arrive when the E part suffers? Or has that been priced in by the market? Rising interest rates also make those dastardly term deposits relatively more attractive.

[Hoop]

Obviously the inflation figure out tomorrow morning must be really really bad if the finance minister is preemptively announcing the continuation of fuel cuts and half price transport until 2023 .....

Hmmm..yes Winner..I've been on this Planet long enough to be cynical of Governments extending gifts without warning..I smell smoke..I hope it's only an inflationary rise problem and not something else they are trying to divert attention from..I've seen oil drop from a peak of $US130 back in March to $US96 now and yet to see any significant drop at the pumps apart from the tax reduction...Hmmm..

[bull....]

7.3% inflation , fastest in 32 yrs.
of course the person on the street knows this figure is a load of s... its probably really 20%

[Rawz]

7.3% inflation , fastest in 32 yrs.
of course the person on the street knows this figure is a load of s... its probably really 20%

Not too bad 7.3% And probably peaking. Going to head down to zero now.

Thanks to the universe for paying a big chunk of my mortgage


https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-inflation-at-7-3-percent-32-year-high/

[Bobdn]

Wow, 7.3 per cent inflation. What a "sh*t show in the f*ck factory" to quote an episode title from the seminal business documentary "Succession".

Applying the rule of 72, if inflation stays at this rate, your cash purchasing power would halve in 10 years.

I wonder what percentage of people actually believe that inflation is only 7.3 per cent. I imagine a very low number. I don't know of anybody personally that does. Could be double 7.3 per cent or more.

On the bright side, I'm thinking that not reinstating the fuel tax means the climate emergency is most likely over now? It must be right because "climate emergency" means urgent action is required immediately to avoid disaster. Not a second to lose! It's an emergency! We're just minutes to midnight!

Anyway If that's the case, it's great news. Well done people. We all made sacrifices in our own way but got there in the end. Stand down! And gentlemen, start your internal combustion engines.

[bull....]

Wow, 7.3 per cent inflation. What a "sh*t show in the f*ck factory" to quote an episode title from the seminal business documentary "Succession".

Applying the rule of 72, if inflation stays at this rate, your cash purchasing power would halve in 10 years.

I wonder what percentage of people actually believe that inflation is only 7.3 per cent. I imagine a very low number. I don't know of anybody personally that does. Could be double 7.3 per cent or more.

On the bright side, I'm thinking that not reinstating the fuel tax means the climate emergency is most likely over now? It must be right because "climate emergency" means urgent action is required immediately to avoid disaster. Not a second to lose! It's an emergency! We're just minutes to midnight!

Anyway If that's the case, it's great news. Well done people. We all made sacrifices in our own way but got there in the end. Stand down! And gentlemen, start your internal combustion engines.

7.3% inflation rate + tax rate 28 % means you have to earn over 9% ROI just to maintain your purchasing power.
of course in reality the inflation rate is higher than 7.3% so more likely you need to be earning double digit returns on your investments to be ahead.

remember if in real terms you lose 10% say due to inflation you need to make over 11% the next yr just to get back to square so the longer inflation stays around applying the example means as the loss gets bigger in real terms the bigger returns needed to just get back to square

So agree with bobdn rule of 72 means most people will be worse of in 10 yrs as far as purchasing power goes even though they might think there 4% div there getting makes them think they havnt lost money

[Ggcc]

Wow, 7.3 per cent inflation. What a "sh*t show in the f*ck factory" to quote an episode title from the seminal business documentary "Succession".

Applying the rule of 72, if inflation stays at this rate, your cash purchasing power would halve in 10 years.

I wonder what percentage of people actually believe that inflation is only 7.3 per cent. I imagine a very low number. I don't know of anybody personally that does. Could be double 7.3 per cent or more.

On the bright side, I'm thinking that not reinstating the fuel tax means the climate emergency is most likely over now? It must be right because "climate emergency" means urgent action is required immediately to avoid disaster. Not a second to lose! It's an emergency! We're just minutes to midnight!

Anyway If that's the case, it's great news. Well done people. We all made sacrifices in our own way but got there in the end. Stand down! And gentlemen, start your internal combustion engines.
We are seeing the demise of the labour government and the rise of another coalition government. But labour is not entirely to blame for this and the new government can’t fix it in the short term. At the start of this pandemic I was more worried about the inflation that was coming than the virus.

[winner69]

We are seeing the demise of the labour government and the rise of another coalition government. But labour is not entirely to blame for this and the new government can’t fix it in the short term. At the start of this pandemic I was more worried about the inflation that was coming than the virus.

They say The thing about inflation is it is the symptom of a problem and not a problem in itself

Need to fix the problem but government says can't do that because it's all imported or something along those lines

[Balance]

They say The thing about inflation is it is the symptom of a problem and not a problem in itself

Need to fix the problem but government says can't do that because it's all imported or something along those lines

Yes, nothing to do with the tens of billions of dollars poured into the inflationary fire by Ardern - it's all a supply problem, not demand side.

But wait for 2023 as $140 billion of fixed rate mortgages roll over in the course of the next 12 months however - that will surely take the sting out of the inflation monster tail.

Every 1% increase will suck $1.4 billion out of mortgage holders' spending power. Ouch!

[bull....]

nz dollar barely rose last night in re-action to us dollar fall. you know when this happens sentiment is really bad. or was it because inflation is out of control ? or govt changing the way they report covid deaths , apparently this new way will reduce numbers of deaths due to covid lol

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Obviously the inflation figure out tomorrow morning must be really really bad if the finance minister is preemptively announcing the continuation of fuel cuts and half price transport until 2023 .....
I agree with this post.
Grant Robertson is genial and glib ...
Greatest inflationary influence in NZ is the current NZ Government

[mike2020]

I really hope your right, the rises in my portfolio are really starting to confound me. Why did I keep this cash handy? Someone said hgh $1.53 and OCA in the 50s? I want my lollies now :(

[SailorRob]

A grim morning indeed for the long term investor who's looking to reinvest dividends and fresh capital over many years.

Guaranteed money loser a morning like this.

But almost 100% of people will see it the opposite way.

[Bobdn]

Well, I'm retired and doing the 4 per cent rule so I don't love the 🐻🐨 Bear.

Inflation is also a potential huge problem. As I think we all know, the 4 per cent rule means your spending in the first year is based on 4 per cent of your financial assets which is adjusted by inflation every year.

So a bear market and high inflation over a few years could put an end to my lollygagging and I think we all know how much I love my lollygagging.

The lollygagging wouldn't completely disappear, I'd just have to trim a little and do the trimming earlier than later

[bull....]

bitcoin/crypto induced rally.

[percy]

S&P 500,Dow 30,Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all well up.

[Balance]

bitcoin/crypto induced rally.

The other way round.

[Bjauck]

Well, I'm retired and doing the 4 per cent rule so I don't love the  Bear.

Inflation is also a potential huge problem. As I think we all know, the 4 per cent rule means your spending in the first year is based on 4 per cent of your financial assets which is adjusted by inflation every year.

So a bear market and high inflation over a few years could put an end to my lollygagging and I think we all know how much I love my lollygagging.

The lollygagging wouldn't completely disappear, I'd just have to trim a little and do the trimming earlier than later Great word. I thought it may mean choking on a gob-stopper, so I had to look it up online. However I see that it is never good to lollygag with respect to investments!

[Bobdn]

Well, I'm a passive investor so lollygagging describes my investment style pretty well. I'm "idle".

[winner69]

Have we had capitulation yet?

[Panda-NZ-]

Negative equity is a real problem.

Trouble is we would have had that anyway under the alternative with 10% unemployment.

It seems the developed world chose between high unemployment and defaulted loans, or high inflation.

[alokdhir]

Have we had capitulation yet?

Not yet ....Our KFL is still at 18% premium to underline assets ...that shows retail is still equity positive and not averse which should the case for capitulation

I was expecting KFL or other Fisher listed funds to revert back to historic small discounts to NAV but opposite happened ...KFL premium widened from 9% to 18%

Really finding that amazing and very very difficult to comprehend or justify ...will any seasoned investor will be holding on to them ...but people are which shows they still have big faith in equities coming back sooner while part of capital is getting eroded every quarter as dividend returns plus fund charges

Thats opposite of capitulation sentiment ....maybe we need to have a big suckers rally then a big bust to flush out such optimism to see capitulation

Fortunately NZX investors are not even following USA rallies up like rest of the world inspite of we having a much more defensive dividend paying market . We maybe be too cautious this time to get big capitulation or Fear

FMD has that potential ...see how HGH turned negative from big HMY based positive on that news . Even MFT etc underperformed .

Lack of capitulation also may highlight low ratio of retail participation in NZ ...we love our property investments ...may see capitulation there ...lol

[Onemootpoint]

……..Fortunately NZX investors are not even following USA rallies up like rest of the world inspite of we having a much more defensive dividend paying market . We maybe be too cautious this time to get big capitulation or Fear

FMD has that potential ...see how HGH turned negative from big HMY based positive on that news . Even MFT etc underperformed .

Lack of capitulation also may highlight low ratio of retail participation in NZ ...we love our property investments ...may see capitulation there ...lol

For that reason I gaze towards the S&P for signs of capitulation, even if not a total indication of fear ever appears. I do not think we are quite there yet. In the meantime a few good rallies may turn up. But I am probably wrong.

[Azz]

If the housing market in the US holds up, this bear is OVER.

[Azz]

A grim morning indeed for the long term investor who's looking to reinvest dividends and fresh capital over many years.

Guaranteed money loser a morning like this.

But almost 100% of people will see it the opposite way.

So funny - by your logic a 1,000-year bear market would be the best thing ever!

[alokdhir]

Have we had capitulation yet?

All are thinking about it mate

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-turbulence-may-not-be-scaring-off-retail-investors-were-not-seeing-investors-respond-the-way-they-typically-have-11658430017?mod=home-page

Is it more wisdom or its foolhardy on retails part ...only time will tell

At present it seems capitulation as we know and many waiting for mayn't happen this time

[alokdhir]

For that reason I gaze towards the S&P for signs of capitulation, even if not a total indication of fear ever appears. I do not think we are quite there yet. In the meantime a few good rallies may turn up. But I am probably wrong.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-turbulence-may-not-be-scaring-off-retail-investors-were-not-seeing-investors-respond-the-way-they-typically-have-11658430017?mod=home-page

They also wondering and looking for it ...normally when too many people want something in markets then it never happens ...as markets mostly rewards minority

[alokdhir]

US 10 Year yields dropping big time as recession is almost certain . Oil also trending down . Copper is directionless at the moment

Bond buying going own ...will it lead to stocks selling ? Or both will be buoyant together as they fell together before

Recession churn is the current theme ....RMD big gainer recently

[SailorRob]

So funny - by your logic a 1,000-year bear market would be the best thing ever!

Correct, the dividends you'd end up receiving after a long period of buying cheap businesses would be far more attractive than capital appreciation.

With your example however, over time when you ended up owning a vast proportion of the world's productive capacity it would incite political problems.

[Azz]

Correct, the dividends you'd end up receiving after a long period of buying cheap businesses would be far more attractive than capital appreciation.

With your example however, over time when you ended up owning a vast proportion of the world's productive capacity it would incite political problems.

What exactly do you do during this 1,000-year period? Do you sleep a lot?

[SailorRob]

What exactly do you do during this 1,000-year period? Do you sleep a lot?

You just do what you want to do with your time, instead of what's dictated by your employer.

Hell you could even sit around annoying the hell out of good folk by posting about *hitcoin if you really felt inclined.

[Azz]

You just do what you want to do with your time, instead of what's dictated by your employer.

Hell you could even sit around annoying the hell out of good folk by posting about *hitcoin if you really felt inclined.

I reckon by about the 500-year mark I'd be a bit bored. Probably would have watched most of Netflix by then. There's always table tennis I guess!

[bull....]

So far in US earnings season plenty of companies warning of staff lay-off's coming and slowing demand. Back this up with waning economic measures and it could be looking like the slowing is starting.
fed will be happy

[mike2020]

Why isn't there more talk about the trade deficit? Just carry on like it's normal?

[Panda-NZ-]

I believe it's all down to petrol.. as we rely on trucks for freight and dont use public transport.

[mike2020]

Yes, largely due to refinery margins. Who saw that coming. More offshore expenditure that could have been avoided.

[winner69]

Why isn't there more talk about the trade deficit? Just carry on like it's normal?

Something we don't want to talk about that trade deficit

Something has to give soon ..... what's the other side of the equation?

[Aaron]

Something we don't want to talk about that trade deficit

Something has to give soon ..... what's the other side of the equation?

Wow I don't understand what makes up the figure but I am pretty sure deficits are not good. What happened up to Jan 2021 and more importantly what has been happening since then. The line is pretty much straight down. Growing deficits.

Are agricultural export prices rising at a slower rate than imports. No one to pick the fruit or milk the cows? Maybe it's the gib board coming in, or coal from where ever now that we are carbon zero? Locked down NZers buying crap online from China? More tourists going overseas than coming in?

Should we as a nation be concerned?

[Rawz]

dont worry about the trade deficit

we import valuable resources and give the world useless paper

it will never catch up with us

[mike2020]

Wow I don't understand what makes up the figure but I am pretty sure deficits are not good. What happened up to Jan 2021 and more importantly what has been happening since then. The line is pretty much straight down. Growing deficits.

Are agricultural export prices rising at a slower rate than imports. No one to pick the fruit or milk the cows? Maybe it's the gib board coming in, or coal from where ever now that we are carbon zero? Locked down NZers buying crap online from China? More tourists going overseas than coming in?

Should we as a nation be concerned?

I wonder if imports were hindered by lockdowns here and abroad while our main exports kept ticking over with their own supply lines and there is some sort of catch-up at play there?

[winner69]

BofA survey shows private client funds under management have highest allocation to equity for decades

The FOMO dichotomy continues they say

2020-2021 - Fear of missing out on upside.

2022 - Fear of missing out on the bottom if the Fed pivots.

"I scared of a bear market, but I ain't sellin'" said one manager

[bull....]

a week of consolidation ending for stocks in the bear
10yr hammered again on economic recession fears
earnings will be more telling next quarter , just like NZ will be feb/mar

big week next week , earnings , fed

[alokdhir]

BofA survey shows private client funds under management have highest allocation to equity for decades

The FOMO dichotomy continues they say

2020-2021 - Fear of missing out on upside.

2022 - Fear of missing out on the bottom if the Fed pivots.

"I scared of a bear market, but I ain't sellin'" said one manager

Our market NZX is behaving much better though no panic selling ...if we are lucky and good chance of that imo then 10395 will be bottom of this cycle unless real recession is very deep and prolonged ...thats long time away for markets to fear ...at present they are breathing much easier as Inflation fears melting slowly

Looking at US 10 year yields now below 2.80 is reassuring to stock valuations ...Oil closing below crucial 95 level too helps

Recession is easier on stocks as that means rates down but inflation is the feared scene

If one thinks Inflation battle is going to be won in 3-6 months ahead then this is the time to get in or at every dip

Buy the dip will return then sell the rally soon ...surely dependent on Inflation getting under control which seems at the moment

I have 80% certainty of 10395 low holding and we ending the year much higher then now ....maybe 12000 + ....hopefully

[winner69]

US public pension funds feeling more pain …on average now - over 20% underfunded (to meet liabilities)

Future not too bright — they assume 7% pa returns on a 60%/40% portfolio — but from where markets are now expected returns are less than 2% pa

Need to raise contributions or cut benefits.

[bull....]

big week ahead US markets , sure to create some swings.
i see the nzx after opening up today retreated of the down trend line resistance

[Bobdn]

Fword yeah, Bull. Big week! Omg this is it Sam!

All is revealed, in 3-2-1...

I'm day drinking and waiting for US markets to open...

Rio Tinto reports this week (and Apple and MSFT and today it's Google!)

[ynot]

I don't follow markets as closely as most around here but talk of the bottom being in soon... ? Seems to me the slide has barely started.

[mike2020]

If it all pans out as predicted (by those who like to tell us they know what they are doing) markets take a dip following the fed this week, V shaped recovery over the next 6 months as inflation comes off peak. Merry Christmas everyone.

I think it's going to take foot and mouth for me to get HGH at that $1.53 mentioned.

[alokdhir]

If it all pans out as predicted (by those who like to tell us they know what they are doing) markets take a dip following the fed this week, V shaped recovery over the next 6 months as inflation comes off peak. Merry Christmas everyone.

I think it's going to take foot and mouth for me to get HGH at that $1.53 mentioned.

Mr B was the expert who said at P/E of 9 it shud be $ 1.53 ....now he doesn't post here so maybe u can try to directly contact him for his latest views ...

TBF to him he said at peak of recession HGH p/e can reach its lowest band of 9 ...as recession is still few months away so his prophesy may still come true if all stars align as expected by him ...

IMO very little chance of that ....lol

[winner69]

Inflation has peaked they say

Suppose that means things won't go 7% plus every year

But 5%/6% inflation is still pretty painful .... especially when prices won't go back to where they were a couple of years ago

[alokdhir]

Inflation has peaked they say

Suppose that means things won't go 7% plus every year

But 5%/6% inflation is still pretty painful .... especially when prices won't go back to where they were a couple of years ago

Why have such high expectations in this modern world comprised by live for the day people ? ...lol

U want prices back to two years old level ...stop increasing is the best outcome ahead if possible .

But we saw oil go from negative near term futures in covid times to $ 130 ...as lows didnt last so highs will also not

We all know after making 52 weeks highs stocks happen to make 52 week lows and vice versa ...if in your opinion oil has made 52 week high then in next fews months u will see it below 60 too ...circle of life and all things connected with it ...:p

[winner69]

Why have such high expectations in this modern world comprised by live for the day people ? ...lol

U want prices back to two years old level ...stop increasing is the best outcome ahead if possible .

But we saw oil go from negative near term futures in covid times to $ 130 ...as lows didnt last so highs will also not

We all know after making 52 weeks highs stocks happen to make 52 week lows and vice versa ...if in your opinion oil has made 52 week high then in next fews months u will see it below 60 too ...circle of life and all things connected with it ...:p

Was thinking more of what households buy every day/week/year .... betcha most of those things won't fall in price

[alokdhir]

Was thinking more of what households buy every day/week/year .... betcha most of those things won't fall in price

But people will have higher nominal income to buy those at higher prices ...keeping the balance same

Those higher prices will translate to higher revenues for companies and higher nominal profits thus rising stock prices etc .

Eventually we will reach new balance point which will be at higher level then before ...slowly the value of cash assets are getting diminished like in last 50 years

Rates keeping going down as debts are so high ...Cash or similar is the biggest looser in that process ....imagine buying a house for $ 25000 in 1980s ...now that $25000 wont even buy a car ...lol

[mike2020]

Exactly. Eventually it all balances out. Look at interest rates and inflation in the 80s. Carless days. Crisis after crisis. Y2K...people actually bought into that one too.
Some things will fall in price, petrol is, tomatoes will. Wages won't.

[bull....]

Walmart cuts profit guidance as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on necessities
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/walmart-cuts-second-quarter-guidance-as-it-sees-slower-growth-due-to-inflation.html

when one of the biggest retailers cuts guidance due to inflation you know its only a matter of time before every company does

[Joshuatree]

Walmart cuts profit guidance as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on necessities
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/walmart-cuts-second-quarter-guidance-as-it-sees-slower-growth-due-to-inflation.html

when one of the biggest retailers cuts guidance due to inflation you know its only a matter of time before every company does

Good to have a contrarian view from you Bull ,as always. For my situ Im longer term investing in this sector,The Warehouse,so that's just noise to me.Im happy to ride this out and collect income on the way.But I have no or almost no other exposure in the retail side of things atpit.

[bull....]

I don't follow markets as closely as most around here but talk of the bottom being in soon... ? Seems to me the slide has barely started.

you could be right

[bull....]

earnings impacting markets today. i see as well as walmart saying consumers patterns are changing, UPS also reported and said similar things. saying volumes down as people buy less goods and spending more on holidays.
funny thing is coca cola sales were up so i guess they are buying more coke when they go on holiday.

does that eventually translate to NZ. less bgr and whs etc etc and more coke and holidays ?
You might think whats US companies got to do with NZ well people and there habits are same generally speaking

[winner69]

Àpparently the Fed going to pivot tomorrow …..thinkman on tv said ‘definitely pivot’

[bull....]

Àpparently the Fed going to pivot tomorrow …..thinkman on tv said ‘definitely pivot’

its probably irrelevant whenever they pivot as far as markets concerned.
If you compare dotcom bust , GFC etc when fed pivoted in those cases the markets still continued down substantially even after the pivot

[alokdhir]

Many staunch Bears are failing to see writing on the wall ....prospects of massive short squeeze in US markets

This downtrend started with Oil bull trend ...Oil trend has reversed surely ...Bears should see that as sign of changing scene

For me I dont want FED to loosen any stance ...harder they go better it will be for markets eventually ...We want this Inflation genie to be bottled fully ....Recession is not easy to happen in current scene ...even if they happen , will be shallow and easy to cure . Need Kill INFLATION !

1 % increase will be best outcome but FED may do 0.75 % only !!!

[Hoop]

Some Media hinting that the Equity Bear Market has run its course and maybe bottoming out.
My view is it does not appear so, not yet anyway..My favourite indicator is Dr Copper which says the Equity Market bottoms out soon** after Copper bottoms out (** anytime from 1.5 to 6 months later)..

Dr Copper has been a very reliable leading predictor.....
Today Copper has shown no signs of bottoming..There is short term upward noise which is exciting the "I predicted the bottom first" brigade who are scrambling for media fame. Beware that these are the same people that say "I predicted this crash" when the next capitulation event occurs...:D

As Equities are in a Bear Market Cycle there will be relief waves of optimism followed by the next disappointing wave of gloom. I believe we are in one of those relief rallies at the moment as Dr Copper hasn't told me anything yet.

14014

[RTM]

Some Media hinting that the Equity Bear Market has run its course and maybe bottoming out.
My view is it does not appear so, not yet anyway..My favourite indicator is Dr Copper which says the Equity Market bottoms out soon** after Copper bottoms out (** anytime from 1.5 to 6 months later)..

Dr Copper has been a very reliable leading predictor.....
Today Copper has shown no signs of bottoming..There is short term upward noise which is exciting the "I predicted the bottom first" brigade who are scrambling for media fame. Beware that these are the same people that say "I predicted this crash" when the next capitulation event occurs...:D

As Equities are in a Bear Market Cycle there will be relief waves of optimism followed by the next disappointing wave of gloom. I believe we are in one of those relief rallies at the moment as Dr Copper hasn't told me anything yet.

14014

Interesting way of looking at it.
The situation might be even worse given demand for copper - Electric Cars - has likely gone up.

Jeff

[winner69]

Bonza of a day on US markets post Fed talk …and that Waste Management result showing there can’t be a recession as so much more rubbish etc is being collected

Where’s bull ….missing in action keeping us up to date ….. too busy trading the rise no doubt

NZX and ASX will be happy places today

[alokdhir]

Bonza of a day on US markets post Fed talk …and that Waste Management result showing there can’t be a recession as so much more rubbish etc is being collected

Where’s bull ….missing in action keeping us up to date ….. too busy trading the rise no doubt

NZX and ASX will be happy places today

Bear are underestimating the strength of the markets on various factors ....hopefully we will see in coming months

[winner69]

Bear are underestimating the strength of the markets on various factors ....hopefully we will see in coming months

It’s all looking good eh alokdhir

Should see fph another buck closer to 25 today

[alokdhir]

It’s all looking good eh alokdhir

Should see fph another buck closer to 25 today

I fully understand that some bear market rallies make it look so good that people jump in and then capitulation happens ...lol

FPH has no where else to go but up ...eventually it will cross $ 25 after its half year results maybe ...its marathon runner so will try to pace its run ...

IMO what markets liked about this FED announcement as written by me before also ....FED is very clear what they need do and do it fast ...Kill Inflation at any cost and ASAP ...no other concerns matter

This may lead to short term pain for stocks but longer term horizon is rosier and market is already seeing that ...6-9 months ahead rate cuts

[Aaron]

It’s all looking good eh alokdhir

Should see fph another buck closer to 25 today

I guess the rise in stockmarkets and gold is due to an expectation that the central bank pivot is not far away due to the feds rate increase. FOMO?

If there is a recession looming and potentially company earnings falling maybe this is a bit premature. If the bottom half of society is tapped out due to inflation unless it is helicopter money to the masses like in covid, will earnings bounce back? I guess it will depend on how the current inflation plays out. If it disappears quickly then all good for the helicopters, although the transitory nature of the current CPI inflation is still in question.

Investing for currency destruction (capital gain) rather than earnings and cashflow has been a winner for a while now.

[alokdhir]

If take the example of property related stocks like SUM ...it reached its bottom ( hopefully ) in mid June while property market will bottom out one year ahead
By that time SUM would have resumed its uptrend and maybe 30% above its bottom

That just shows how forward looking markets work ...they can look even longer then 12 months ahead if its a clear idea

[Aaron]

If take the example of property related stocks like SUM ...it reached its bottom ( hopefully ) in mid June while property market will bottom out one year ahead
By that time SUM would have resumed its uptrend and maybe 30% above its bottom

That just shows how forward looking markets work ...they can look even longer then 12 months ahead if its a clear idea

I am guessing the bottoming out in 12 months time is due to forecasts that interest rates will peak in 2023? and maybe start declining in 2024.

[bull....]

nothing new in fed statement , market re-acted perfectly with the big jump like it has every meeting.

[alokdhir]

I am guessing the bottoming out in 12 months time is due to forecasts that interest rates will peak in 2023? and maybe start declining in 2024.

Thats what market is working on at the moment based on their many past experiences and expertise ...unless they proved wrong by realities

I will go along with market thinking on this as this is not the first rate cycle market experiencing

[LEMON]

nothing new in fed statement , market re-acted perfectly with the big jump like it has every meeting.

Back down tomorrow after US GDP statement

[bull....]

Back down tomorrow after US GDP statement

the playbooks been last many fed meetings
buy the fed meeting sell at close for the big fall the next day.

see if it plays out again? , i do note end of mth this time compared to others might have some influence

[RTM]

I stumbled across this...pretty interesting. Wonder how right he is ?
You will need about an hour if you are interested.

https://youtu.be/LzipwDQBUyc

[ynot]

I stumbled across this...pretty interesting. Wonder how right he is ?
You will need about an hour if you are interested.

https://youtu.be/LzipwDQBUyc

Interesting link. He presents a rather gloomy outlook for China.

[bull....]

yesterday offered a nice bounce off the bottom of the range today

range currently roughly just over 3700 - just over 3900

that range breakout yesterday is continuing today.

in aus some spectacular gains this week from some of the most beaten up tech stocks with high short interest. same happens in US on these rallies.

[alokdhir]

that range breakout yesterday is continuing today.

in aus some spectacular gains this week from some of the most beaten up tech stocks with high short interest. same happens in US on these rallies.

Whats in your opinion reason for this second closing over that range ? News was bad ...GDP contracted instead of small rise !!

10 year dropped big time ...maybe helping improve higher p/e stocks valuations ....Oil continues to show signs of breakdown below crucial 95

Whats ahead ? New lows or higher range trading or new highs ?

[bull....]

Whats in your opinion reason for this second closing over that range ? News was bad ...GDP contracted instead of small rise !!

10 year dropped big time ...maybe helping improve higher p/e stocks valuations ....Oil continues to show signs of breakdown below crucial 95

Whats ahead ? New lows or higher range trading or new highs ?

maybe people think bad news mean less rate hiking. but my opinion as fed chair say yest we will hike no matter what as inflation is no 1 concern.
10 yr drop based on recession fears . should flow to nz today too. make some high div stocks look appealing afgain esp utilities. just look at DJU nearly at highs again as people go for security of div with utilities.
from a technical chart view its just follow thru from breakout and mth end stuff i reckon. im watching 4200 area now sp500

[mike2020]

What I can't understand is the nzx seems unaffected by the big up days in the US but seems to mirror the down days like its gospel. The asx isn't all that different. I've only watched it for a couple of years so no great experience.

[alokdhir]

maybe people think bad news mean less rate hiking. but my opinion as fed chair say yest we will hike no matter what as inflation is no 1 concern.
10 yr drop based on recession fears . should flow to nz today too. make some high div stocks look appealing afgain esp utilities. just look at DJU nearly at highs again as people go for security of div with utilities.
from a technical chart view its just follow thru from breakout and mth end stuff i reckon. im watching 4200 area now sp500

FED made it very clear that INFLATION control is most important so no need worry about recession ...that was liked by market

Now market is liking that first step in controlling inflation ie slowdown is actually happening ...so their initial fear of super high rates for long to control it are showing out to be premature ....makes 10 years yield down from 3.5 to 2.6 ...

Market overreacted before now correcting to actual data ...will keep going both ways for some time ahead till all worries over ...which is never ...lol

But trading range will keep getting shifted higher or lower on actual data ....at present it looks shifting to 3900-4200

[allfromacell]

There was also a much less hawkish tone yesterday relative to what we've gotten used to.

"...we are now at levels broadly in line with our estimates of neutral interest rates, and after front-loading our hiking cycle until now we will be much more data dependent going forward''.

".. As the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases...while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation," Powell said.

Also as oil appears to have peaked, shipping rates also showing relief CPI futures have started to fall a lot over the past few weeks all point to higher equity valuations.

I think anything is possible but it is starting to look more and more lickely that the bottom is in.

[Bobdn]

Golly, another big day.

And here comes Amazon...big, big result.

[winner69]

So we are back into speculation mode …like fundamentals don’t matter any more

[Bobdn]

Apple: $23b of operating cash flow. Sounds big but I honestly don't understand results and don't have to, thankfully.

USF and USG will be up today I guess. What a way to finish July.

[winner69]

Inflation all over ... Joe is sorting it with the Inflation Reduction Act

If markets can't do it we'll legislate

[bull....]

So we are back into speculation mode …like fundamentals don’t matter any more

i think fundamentals will play a bigger role in sept earnings period in the US and feb/mar for NZ

[bull....]

speaking of good places to hide in the bear this yr so far we have had energy ( which may have peaked ) and US dollar.
also utilities have been good in the US they are flat for the yr

In NZ only as an investor if you had positioned your portfolio defensively at the start of the yr your doing alright so far

US dollar cash
cnu
vct
spk

you would be up 16 odd % + against market down nearly as much

add in ift and the gentailers and you will have weathered the storm so far.
of course easy to look back in hindsight but just goes to show what you could have done.

[dabsman]

speaking of good places to hide in the bear this yr so far we have had energy ( which may have peaked ) and US dollar.
also utilities have been good in the US they are flat for the yr

In NZ only as an investor if you had positioned your portfolio defensively at the start of the yr your doing alright so far

US dollar cash
cnu
vct
spk

you would be up 16 odd % + against market down nearly as much

add in ift and the gentailers and you will have weathered the storm so far.
of course easy to look back in hindsight but just goes to show what you could have done.

I decided I'd do it differently and I ran at the bear and punched it in the nose. It then ripped me apart and ate me mostly whole. Arent tactics interesting...

[allfromacell]

you would be up 16 odd % + against market down nearly as much


Don't forget you'd have to pay 33% tax on your profits offsetting this 'gain'.

I know there are a lot of traders here and paying tax is the cost of doing your business but it's important to remember that NZ has incredibly favorable tax laws for buy and hold investing.

Edited the above because my math was hopelessly off

[Baa_Baa]

Don't forget you'd have to pay 33% tax on your profits offsetting this 'gain'.

I know there are a lot of traders here and paying tax is the cost of doing your business but it's important to remember that NZ has incredibly favorable tax laws for buy and hold investing. It's a great example you've posted because even if you did everything perfectly you'd still only be in the same spot as holding after taking into account our tax laws.

Don't forget to deduct the trading fees as well.

[Peitro]

The copper foil hat brigade will be out in force soon.

Well I hope they will, a few more capping ceremonies might bump the market beyond 4200...

[Biscuit]

Don't forget you'd have to pay 33% tax on your profits offsetting this 'gain'.

I know there are a lot of traders here and paying tax is the cost of doing your business but it's important to remember that NZ has incredibly favorable tax laws for buy and hold investing. It's a great example you've posted because even if you did everything perfectly you'd still only be in the same spot as holding after taking into account our tax laws.

It's been a pretty crap year so far for us "buy and hold" guys - I'm down about 10% from late last year, but dividends are all holding up well. Have a little bit of unneeded cash on hand but seems too early to put that on the table yet. Seems like sentiment has changed for the better currently. Think I'll wait to see where the current rally pulls back to.

[daveypnz]

Don't forget you'd have to pay 33% tax on your profits offsetting this 'gain'.

I know there are a lot of traders here and paying tax is the cost of doing your business but it's important to remember that NZ has incredibly favorable tax laws for buy and hold investing. It's a great example you've posted because even if you did everything perfectly you'd still only be in the same spot as holding after taking into account our tax laws.

What am I missing here? Surely paying 33% (or 39%) tax on a 16% net gain is still far better than being down 16% and paying no tax?

[dobby41]

What am I missing here? Surely paying 33% (or 39%) tax on a 16% net gain is still far better than being down 16% and paying no tax?

You'd think so wouldn't you?
Some people get a bit confused with percentages and forget that the tax is a % of a % as you say.

[allfromacell]

What am I missing here? Surely paying 33% (or 39%) tax on a 16% net gain is still far better than being down 16% and paying no tax?

My mistake, sorry

[Bobdn]

The S&P500 is having it's best month since November 2020.

So holders of USF.NZX will be happy. USF is down just 8 per cent now YTD.

USV is down just 1 per cent YTD. I love USV - such wonderful diversification. I love all my ETFs equally.

USV does have 7.5 per cent in energy. I see Exxon just made $18b USD this quarter and Chevron did well too. $18b is a lot of money, no question.

Well done Exxon and Chevron. Big hugs from me.

[Hoop]

The copper foil hat brigade will be out in force soon.

Well I hope they will, a few more capping ceremonies might bump the market beyond 4200...

Hmmm..I'm getting a luke warm fuzzy feeling in my copper coated antennas as copper price rose and broke though a weak resistance...As normally copper is leading and Equities lag behind, this dual bounce higher would be strange if a true reversal in play..In saying the word "strange" it could be said that the last 3 or so years "strange" has been a new "normal"...

A few other things to consider while a Bear Market cycle is operating:

1..It's too early yet to confirm a Copper bottom. This short term bounce could turn out to be sentiment noise.

2..A semi-reliable fact is the share market bottoms out 2/3rds through a recession. The tricky part is to guess how long the recession is going to be This fact works on the assumption that the share market is forward looking (https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/06/02/heres-how-the-stock-market-performs-during-economic-recessions/?sh=6965c0c16852). Remember:.. Sharemarket Cycle v Economic cycle correlation is not great.

3..Bear Market Cycles have a declining PE Ratio trend (https://www.stockmarketperatio.com/). However the PE Ratio trend reversal back upwards could start in the later stage in a Bear Market Cycle during the peak of investor doom and gloom. During a Bear Market Cycle Investor sentiment alternates from brief happy relief moments to that of longer moments of pessimism and disappointment. Therefore the PE ratio trend has an overall declining trend as investors generally want more reward in exchange to their greater perceived market risk (risk v reward)..

4..Investor behavour is not consistent, it oscillates in waves. This fools some investors to jump in boots and all into a sucker rally. To trade "successfully" in these rallies some investors use Elliott Wave Theory. (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/111401.asp)

5..An economic recession is not always present in a Equity Bear Market Cycle, as the declining PE Ratio trend is mainly due to investment sentiment and/or trading behaviour (mentioned in 3)...however in recessionary times businesses experience lower earnings figures which compounds the declining PE Ratio trend problem.

[alokdhir]

Eventually sharemarkets are financial markets and SP follows financial performance ...p/e expansion or contraction may be based on current sentiment but if u holding good stocks then your time will come sooner then latter

Take the case of MFT ....last AGM they foresaw eps of $ 3.35 ...market took the SP to almost $ 100

This AGM they foresee eps of $ 5 but SP still languishing at $ 77 ....thats market sentiment talking

But if u buy MFT now then surely one day it will see $ 125 soon as sentiment is a fickle thing ...trying to base your financial decisions on world sentiment is like trying to please all

I rather buy MFT now then wait for any uptrend

[kiora]

Eventually sharemarkets are financial markets and SP follows financial performance ...p/e expansion or contraction may be based on current sentiment but if u holding good stocks then your time will come sooner then latter

Take the case of MFT ....last AGM they foresaw eps of $ 3.35 ...market took the SP to almost $ 100

This AGM they foresee eps of $ 5 but SP still languishing at $ 77 ....thats market sentiment talking

But if u buy MFT now then surely one day it will see $ 125 soon as sentiment is a fickle thing ...trying to base your financial decisions on world sentiment is like trying to please all

I rather buy MFT now then wait for any uptrend

If EPS $5 then PE 13 PE then SP could stay the same even with market PE contraction?
Why then would you invest in a retailer?
Sounds like a good investment.
Looks like those analysts are saying that earnings aren't going to increase much past next year, go figure, they are often wrong?
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAINFREIGHT-LIMITED-6492059/financials/

[alokdhir]

Now we keep going up ...have broken above previous recent highs of this downtrend ...but no Bear is giving any advise which levels to watch .

In hindsight all can be experts ...its nicer if someone good at TA skills can help people with their expertise now

Seems we actually going to 4800 NZ50C or 11700 G

[winner69]

Now we keep going up ...have broken above previous recent highs of this downtrend ...but no Bear is giving any advise which levels to watch .

In hindsight all can be experts ...its nicer if someone good at TA skills can help people with their expertise now

Seems we actually going to 4800 NZ50C or 11700 G

Might even see 12000 this month and 13000 by Xmas

What you reckon

[alokdhir]

Might even see 12000 this month and 13000 by Xmas

What you reckon

I am very apprehensive ....thats why looking for TA advise ...what ever basic TA I know says its positive now ...but dont want to be in " Suckers Rally " ....lol

[ithaka]

I am very apprehensive ....thats why looking for TA advise ...what ever basic TA I know says its positive now ...but dont want to be in " Suckers Rally " ....lol
Michael Burry thinks we may only be halfway there.
Nicely presented in depth illustration of the relationship between inflation, interest rates and markets. Covers the risks that Michael Burry sees present in the macro landscape in 2022.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsBvYQLohpE

[bull....]

I am very apprehensive ....thats why looking for TA advise ...what ever basic TA I know says its positive now ...but dont want to be in " Suckers Rally " ....lol

NZ just follows wall st. may not be day to day but overall direction is wall st direction which is still down at the moment

[Panda-NZ-]

The US is so corporation friendly.. CHIPS act where corps can take the money and run.

Directly paying companies to build renewable energy as a "climate policy".

I think stocks there are good value.

[alokdhir]

With Oil and long dated yields thus interest rates continuing to show downtrend ....its becoming more and more clear that stocks will have brighter future ahead sooner then many think at the moment

NZX is better placed then most others as our market is defensive and dividend oriented which is more sensitive to rates and inflation fears

Leading indicators of inflation are showing much progress . Not easy to disregard them especially oil which started all this so its just right that it leads it now also

Almost all good stocks especially with good yield like GNE , ARG, etc are now TA positive with 30 SMA over 60 SMA and SP on top

[alokdhir]

Oil close to $ 90 !!! Markets close to high resistance zone

Maybe time to switch to bullish mode ahead . Buy the dips

Our Market NZX clearly crossed 4600 yesterday and maybe will reach 4800 stop this week

W69's target of 12000 in August may come sooner then we thought

First Half of August good then we may happen to consolidate in second half.

[bull....]

yes good rally from the lows , im not ready though to call a end to the bear.
considering how well defensive stocks are going this yr it looks like most investors have positioned for a recession and on going decline so far this yr.
prove being

vct
gxh
spk
cnu
ift
gentailers

these are the best performers this yr ... steady business with reliable div,s
anyway time will tell maybe we should watch all these stocks to tell us when the bear is over lol

anyway on the global stage i see mersk saying things ahead are not to rosy today in there update so sort of fits the narrative above

Shipping firm Maersk, a barometer for global trade, warns of weak demand and warehouses filling up
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/shipping-firm-maersk-warns-of-weak-demand-and-warehouses-filling-up.html

[alokdhir]

yes good rally from the lows , im not ready though to call a end to the bear.
considering how well defensive stocks are going this yr it looks like most investors have positioned for a recession and on going decline so far this yr.
prove being

vct
gxh
spk
cnu
ift
gentailers

these are the best performers this yr ... steady business with reliable div,s
anyway time will tell maybe we should watch all these stocks to tell us when the bear is over lol

anyway on the global stage i see mersk saying things ahead are not to rosy today in there update so sort of fits the narrative above

Shipping firm Maersk, a barometer for global trade, warns of weak demand and warehouses filling up


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/shipping-firm-maersk-warns-of-weak-demand-and-warehouses-filling-up.html


U were supposed to get WEAK demand when rates go high ...that was the purpose ...thats how INFLATION which is the main culprit of this downtrend is controlled

Weak demand is showing we on right path ...which is eventually rates will come down as there job had been done ...

Unless u for see Inflation not getting controlled while economies getting weaker and weaker ....I will not be negative stocks .

Markets already looking ahead and they see rates working pretty well and in 9 months times or so it will be talk of reducing them

Next 3 months maybe the time to start switching back to growth

[bull....]

U were supposed to get WEAK demand when rates go high ...that was the purpose ...thats how INFLATION which is the main culprit of this downtrend is controlled

Weak demand is showing we on right path ...which is eventually rates will come down as there job had been done ...

Unless u for see Inflation not getting controlled while economies getting weaker and weaker ....I will not be negative stocks .

Markets already looking ahead and they see rates working pretty well and in 9 months times or so it will be talk of reducing them

Next 3 months maybe the time to start switching back to growth

getting weak demand does not solve high inflation , that wont reduce inflation back to acceptable numbers. it is only part of a solution to high inflation.
when the numbers for inflation turn the fight is not over thats why the fed people this week are telling you rates might be high for long time obviously the market does not think so but market moves in funny ways at times

[JBmurc]

Oil close to $ 90 !!! Markets close to high resistance zone

Maybe time to switch to bullish mode ahead . Buy the dips

Our Market NZX clearly crossed 4600 yesterday and maybe will reach 4800 stop this week

W69's target of 12000 in August may come sooner then we thought

First Half of August good then we may happen to consolidate in second half.

I would not be surprised to see more upside with Commodities continuing coming well off higher levels ...US CPI will come in lower that expected from last .. FED may add a more dovish tone,Company earning have been stronger than expected

.. but think this BULLISH turn will only last in the short term ... reality is Winter demands will force Energy much higher as OPEC has very little spare capacity(China still not fully opened) ... Net Zero EV demands, will weigh back on Commodities,,,, War/weather issues affecting food supply ..

IMHO markets will close higher than present end of AUG ...but lower end of NOV-DEC

And of course flip-flopping Central banks ..as Inflation tames but then surges again northern hemi winter

[Bobdn]

I could look this up but then I'd having nothing post.

If we're no longer down 20 per cent does that mean that we're no longer in a bear market? So these rallies are just rallies not "bear market" rallies?

[ratkin]

I could look this up but then I'd having nothing post.

If we're no longer down 20 per cent does that mean that we're no longer in a bear market? So these rallies are just rallies not "bear market" rallies?

Seems to be no 100% definition here is some vague stuff I found
A common rule of thumb: a new bull market is marked by a 20% gain from the low for a sustained period of time. Ned Davis Research, an independent provider of global investment research based in Nokomis, Florida, uses the Dow Jones Industrial Average to track bulls and bears because there is more history associated with the index. They maintain that a 30% rise in stocks for more than 50 days, or a 13% gain for more than 155 days, heralds the start of a new bull market.

[Bobdn]

That's a good find, thanks Ratkin. So we have a way to go yet.

[Panda-NZ-]

The 10 year treasury yield has pulled back significantly which adds support to stocks.

Crude oil also down a fair bit.

[Bobdn]

When we come out of this bear market, I'm going to plan a party for myself. It's going to be quite an afternoon I can tell you. No, really.

Edit: Party planning on hold. All this "good news is bad news" is sick making.

[bull....]

Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.html

well that's a strong number .... will the fed be upset

[Tomtom]

Rationally we should actually expect to see job numbers falling as more people retire than enter the workforce (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTUSM647S).

[Raz]

I'm calling bull trap right now. It is likely they think they have bad news priced in but I reckon things gonna get real ugly yet, especially for wee country with no ability to provide own supply chain necessities...

[ithaka]

I'm calling bull trap right now.
I agree. We're yet to feel the pain of the hangover from the overindulgence of the last few years.

Hundreds of Wellington first-home buyers who bought at market peak now in negative equity.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129470098/hundreds-of-wellington-firsthome-buyers-who-bought-at-market-peak-now-in-negative-equity

[Habits]

I agree. We're yet to feel the pain of the hangover from the overindulgence of the last few years.

Hundreds of Wellington first-home buyers who bought at market peak now in negative equity.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129470098/hundreds-of-wellington-firsthome-buyers-who-bought-at-market-peak-now-in-negative-equity

For those owners it would not be a great idea to sell right now and therefore crystallize the loss. It's better seeing a house as a home and longterm investment instead of cash cow get rich quick scheme. This negative equity topic was covered by TA yesterday on the 1Roof show. For owners who are paying their mortgage there are no issues now or further out.

[LEMON]

The US is to print a further 430 billion dollars "to fight inflation", looks like the global recession will only be further prolonged, let's see if the markets move up on the news tomorrow

[alokdhir]

Very soon market will start to appreciate different rates expectations of USA and NZ markets .

NZ is distinctively softer economy with relatively weaker labour market requiring lesser pressure from RNBZ for inflation control

While USA will need much higher and longer higher rates to cool it further

This will put pressure on NZD ahead ....very possible it goes below 60 cents in months ahead ...helping exporters but hurting imported inflation way

USA markets being mother of all markets will hurt our market sentiment too ...but our local rates expectations being softer will keep us range bound ...hopefully

[bull....]

quiet start to week. all eyes must be on US cpi data this week

[alokdhir]

quiet start to week. all eyes must be on US cpi data this week

8.6 % is the consensus ....lets c ...if that or below ...another reason for these markets to rally as they want to rally not go down so soon ...maybe got legs till 4300-50 ...let all be sucked in then September fun

All are asking capitulation didnt happen ...Sept will see it ...lol

[alokdhir]

Very soon market will start to appreciate different rates expectations of USA and NZ markets .

NZ is distinctively softer economy with relatively weaker labour market requiring lesser pressure from RNBZ for inflation control

While USA will need much higher and longer higher rates to cool it further

This will put pressure on NZD ahead ....very possible it goes below 60 cents in months ahead ...helping exporters but hurting imported inflation way

USA markets being mother of all markets will hurt our market sentiment too ...but our local rates expectations being softer will keep us range bound ...hopefully

NZ Bond market is on track ...it keeps making new recent yield lows...todays close of 3.274 ...while high was 4.284 in June ...more then a 1% down in 2 months

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir

10 year govt now lower than 2 year

What heck does that mean

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir

10 year govt now lower than 2 year

What heck does that mean

U know what it means ...U r the one who coined the term " Inverted " yield curve

But thats what market thinks at the moment ....

With employment so good ...not easy to get big recession ...so eventually higher rates for longer should keep markets down for next few months

[Bobdn]

I mean if you were all in cash for the last couple of months, you'd be getting just a little bit twitchy by now, wouldn't you?

[clearasmud]

I mean if you were all in cash for the last couple of months, you'd be getting just a little bit twitchy by now, wouldn't you?

The only thing more stressful than being in the market is being out of the market.

[bull....]

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in July, less than expected as inflation pressures ease a bit
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

inflation peaked , but a peak is not the same as normal inflation levels so i guess the nice big rally on the news as expected right into the sp500 4200 resistance is just relief its a peak.
lets see how it plays out now.

[alokdhir]

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in July, less than expected as inflation pressures ease a bit


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

inflation peaked , but a peak is not the same as normal inflation levels so i guess the nice big rally on the news as expected right into the sp500 4200 resistance is just relief its a peak.
lets see how it plays out now.

As written before ...market wants to rally ...it will look for reasons to rally ignoring negatives ...August is for rally ...will keep knocking at your 4170 resistance ...finally it will break up to maybe 4350 levels ....then will it look to go bust after enough distribution done at top to newly sucked in TA experts to buy only after 2 closings over 4170 ...lol

[bull....]

As written before ...market wants to rally ...it will look for reasons to rally ignoring negatives ...August is for rally ...will keep knocking at your 4170 resistance ...finally it will break up to maybe 4350 levels ....then will it look to go bust after enough distribution done at top to newly sucked in TA experts to buy only after 2 closings over 4170 ...lol

actually august is historically a flat mth overall

[winner69]

Phew …..the worst is over …inflation, economy …everything

It’s all up from here for the markets

[Habits]

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in July, less than expected as inflation pressures ease a bit
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/10/consumer-prices-rose-8point5percent-in-july-less-than-expected-as-inflation-pressures-ease-a-bit.html

inflation peaked , but a peak is not the same as normal inflation levels so i guess the nice big rally on the news as expected right into the sp500 4200 resistance is just relief its a peak.
lets see how it plays out now.

Still incredibly high, NZ should hopeully experience a decent fall when the 3rd qtr numbers come out

[winner69]

Still incredibly high, NZ should hopeully experience a decent fall when the 3rd qtr numbers come out

Boring in NZ in that we only get quarterly numbers …be a bit of excitment if we got monthly numbers like most of the world

Even Aussie going monthly soon.

[bull....]

Boring in NZ in that we only get quarterly numbers …be a bit of excitment if we got monthly numbers like most of the world

Even Aussie going monthly soon.

shame NZ a backwater , more timely data might help the RBNZ

[Entrep]

14050

mood swings all round

[bull....]

people leaving NZ in droves

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300659348/more-people-leave-nz-than-arrive-for-the-16th-straight-month-stats-nz-says

More people leave NZ than arrive for the 16th straight month, Stats NZ says

[winner69]

people leaving NZ in droves

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300659348/more-people-leave-nz-than-arrive-for-the-16th-straight-month-stats-nz-says

More people leave NZ than arrive for the 16th straight month, Stats NZ says






the way its meant to be bull .... need to reduce population to over come some of our 'crisis' issues .... all going to plan

[Snoopy]

the way its meant to be bull .... need to reduce population to over come some of our 'crisis' issues .... all going to plan


Yes, and if we keep our world leading Covid-19 death rate up (most of those oldies who 'pass on' probably not Labour voters anyway), that will fix our health system crisis too ;-P. What a lovely lot we are!

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Yes, and if we keep our world leading Covid-19 death rate up (most of those oldies who 'pass on' probably not Labour voters anyway), that will fix our health system crisis too ;-P. What a lovely lot we are!

SNOOPY

At least you didn’t mention co-governance and such things …..or as The Australian puts it a coup d’etat in all but name saying NZ is on a long slide from its 170-year legacy of democratic governance into a tribal form of ethno-nationalism

Good stuff eh

[Aaron]

people leaving NZ in droves

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300659348/more-people-leave-nz-than-arrive-for-the-16th-straight-month-stats-nz-says

More people leave NZ than arrive for the 16th straight month, Stats NZ says


Don't poop in your pants yet bull have a look at the red "net" line on the stats nz chart.

"https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-march-2022#:~:text=Provisional%20estimates%20for%20the%2 0year,of%201%2C700%20(%C2%B1%2040)."

We have had at least 50,000 a year since 2015 jumping to 90,000 in March 2020 when all the scabby mongrels paying tax overseas decided to come home for our generous social welfare in times of crisis. A lot have probably moaned about how backward we are and are ready to leave again.

I think 11,500 leaving is only a problem if you can't add or are retarded.

Remember the MYOB survey predicting 20% or roughly 1million people leaving. This was interesting after all the people who have quoted it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/129530294/the-story-behind-the-story-of-1-million-kiwis-set-to-leave-new-zealand

Let them go. 5million is the perfect population for a country our size. Mind you I was happier at 3million but i was younger then.

I know the financial system falls over if it doesn't keep expanding but the real economy should pull through.

[Aaron]

Sorry doubled up

[bull....]

Don't poop in your pants yet bull have a look at the red "net" line on the stats nz chart.

We have had at least 50,000 a year since 2015 jumping to 90,000 in March 2020 when all the scabby mongrels paying tax overseas decided to come home for our generous social welfare in times of crisis. A lot have probably moaned about how backward we are and are ready to leave again.

.

I think 11,500 leaving is only a problem if you can't add or are retarded.

Remember the MYOB survey predicting 20% or roughly 1million people leaving. This was interesting after all the people who have quoted it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/129530294/the-story-behind-the-story-of-1-million-kiwis-set-to-leave-new-zealand

Let them go. 5million is the perfect population for a country our size. Mind you I was happier at 3million but i was younger then.

I know the financial system falls over if it doesn't keep expanding but the real economy should pull through.

but we need all these immigrants to keep coming each yr to buy the houses we keep building
you know our economy is built on trading houses to each other

[Aaron]

but we need all these immigrants to keep coming each yr to buy the houses we keep building
you know our economy is built on trading houses to each other

I understand what you are saying but it still sounds retarded.

Maybe we should invest in something more productive than houses for immigrants.

Maybe we can relax and be a bit backward, it would help solve the labour shortage, the cost of living crisis and the housing crisis.

[bull....]

Yes, and if we keep our world leading Covid-19 death rate up (most of those oldies who 'pass on' probably not Labour voters anyway), that will fix our health system crisis too ;-P. What a lovely lot we are!

SNOOPY

because we all live longer now the world has a retirement system problem ie cost keep going up.
that's why covid was invented in a lab.
It was a way to solve the world's pension problem

[dobby41]

because we all live longer now the world has a retirement system problem ie cost keep going up.
that's why covid was invented in a lab.
It was a way to solve the world's pension problem

I do hope that was sarcasm or a joke otherwise it is serious mis-information.

[dubya]

At least you didn’t mention co-governance and such things …..or as The Australian puts it a coup d’etat in all but name saying NZ is on a long slide from its 170-year legacy of democratic governance into a tribal form of ethno-nationalism

Good stuff eh

Oh they are soooooo correct. At least they've got the balls to call it how it is, and how the rest of the world see it!!
I don't see many Australians running around speaking Aborigine. Nor having it forced down their throats in school, on TV, in newspapers, on every government building / letterhead, and on anything else the weak wokers can squeeze it in on.
It's no wonder people are leaving this country in droves.

[dobby41]

Oh they are soooooo correct. At least they've got the balls to call it how it is, and how the rest of the world see it!!
I don't see many Australians running around speaking Aborigine. Nor having it forced down their throats in school, on TV, in newspapers, on every government building / letterhead, and on anything else the weak wokers can squeeze it in on.
It's no wonder people are leaving this country in droves.

How is this the right thread for this?

Anyway - the difference a Treaty makes eh?

[Aaron]

Yes, and if we keep our world leading Covid-19 death rate up (most of those oldies who 'pass on' probably not Labour voters anyway), that will fix our health system crisis too ;-P. What a lovely lot we are!

SNOOPY

Do we have world leading covid deaths rates Snoop? Seems a shame we were second behind the US in pandemic spending. A lot of money to delay the inevitable. Or are the current covid deaths avoidable?

[bull....]

Oh they are soooooo correct. At least they've got the balls to call it how it is, and how the rest of the world see it!!
I don't see many Australians running around speaking Aborigine. Nor having it forced down their throats in school, on TV, in newspapers, on every government building / letterhead, and on anything else the weak wokers can squeeze it in on.
It's no wonder people are leaving this country in droves.

probably wont have to worry about it long term , china will as they say re- educate the population

[mike2020]

Oh they are soooooo correct. At least they've got the balls to call it how it is, and how the rest of the world see it!!
I don't see many Australians running around speaking Aborigine. Nor having it forced down their throats in school, on TV, in newspapers, on every government building / letterhead, and on anything else the weak wokers can squeeze it in on.
It's no wonder people are leaving this country in droves.

Lets call it as we see it is it? Quoting the Aussies on racism and indigenous rights? Give me a break. If the end result is a balanced multi-cultural society I will remain happy to call NZ home.

[Snoopy]

Do we have world leading covid deaths rates Snoop?


I am talking about the death rate per million during the Omicron era, which is from the end of November 2021 until now. Here is the comparative death rate graph for New Zealand vs Australia vs Great Britain vs Japan. I include Japan in the comparison because as well as being an island nation in the pacific, we have now gone ahead of Japan in terms of the cumulative death rate since the pandemic start.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-11-27..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=false&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Biweekly&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=NZL~AUS~JPN~GBR

This graph shows the Aussies are giving us a run for our money. But I think you can see that by the time our Omicron wave took off in February, we have been right at the head of the pack. Once you have brought up the link, you can add other nations at will, by clicking boxes on the left of the graph. There aren't any, where people are dying at a faster rate than in New Zealand.



Seems a shame we were second behind the US in pandemic spending. A lot of money to delay the inevitable. Or are the current covid deaths avoidable?


I think the government strategy was satisfactory from a planning perspective. If you can't stop the spread of Omicron, and it looks like from a population perspective you can't, the idea of letting a 'mild' version of Covid-19 run through a fully vaccinated population before the winter hit had a certain merit. The problems emerged when the virus did not behave as it was told to behave.

1/ Covid-19 Omicron was not mild, as the hundreds of NZers dead from the disease now attest to.
2/ The transmission of the Omicron version of the virus was not stopped by the vaccine.
3/ Catching the Omicron BA2 variant, still leaves you vulnerable to the more recently evolved Omicron BA5 variant.
4/ The economy was 'opened up' for business reasons, but business owners found they could not operate because too many staff were sick and children took the disease in to their parent's and grandparent's homes.
5/ There was chaos in schools as going back to school without a mask caused super spreading events, which meant there were not enough teaching staff to run the schools.
6/ The hospital system collapsed under the combined weight of Covid-19. the flu and RSV.

Yet when it became obvious the virus was out smarting the government, the government did absolutely nothing about it. And now we are paying for that inaction, with lives lost. An absolute disgrace IMO.

SNOOPY

[Waltzing]

Brilliant sumation DIC SNOOP..

but really the country moved beyond their control?

no one thinks it deadly until someone in your family or circle is hit hard by it.

Is the govt even trying to get the next vaccine versions that fight the variants?

[Habits]

I have heard others say that going to another country is like a different world where no one worries about the C word and no masks in sight. Obviously I can't corroborate if that's true as I love being in godzone.

Still I myself got an exemption so can go maskless too. I have found no one questions it anyway. Being as fit as a frost and happy as a spring lamb I guess its ok

I better be careful what I say. Someone might tell me to "hit the road fatty"!

[Snoopy]

Brilliant summation DIC SNOOP..

But really the country moved beyond their control?


I think when the pandemic hit and there was no vaccine available and the disease seemed to be spreading like wildfire, then the population was prepared to go with the dynamic duo of Jacinda Ardern and Ashley Bloomfield. They radiated 'authority with kindness'. If the country had to lock down until the disease was eliminated in NZ, then so be it. Businesses were brought into the cheer leading squad with the wage subsidy and other support payments. Everyone joined the team of five million to 'beat the bug'.

We were all glued to the radio and TV for the 'daily proclamations from the pulpit'. We were told we were 'following the science'. With deaths right down compared to what was happening in the rest of the world, the NZ populace became believers.

The problem is that 'the science' is an emerging thing which as a matter of course makes us stumble with little mis-steps along the way. The NZ populace thought that Dr Ashley knew 'the science' when he didn't, because no-one did at the time. Dr Ashley had people wiping down lift buttons, when all the time it was the heavy breathing as the mask-less cleaners exerted themselves scrubbing that ended up being the problem. As recently as a couple of months ago there was a campaign to get vaccinated to protect your elderly and vulnerable whanau. However, by that time the public had wised up to the fact that since the arrival of Omicron, getting vaccinated did not stop you passing on the virus to the vulnerable. I wonder how many elderly died from hugs and kisses from their vaccinated grandchildren, from those that followed this mis-timed message? Failing to keep up with the science undermined the perception of 'the science' and made certain members of the public lose confidence in their leaders proclamations.

It was not easy for the government managing a disease like Covid-19 that evolved so fast it broke the rules for what we understood as the norm for a respiratory disease. But looking back, I think the right course of action would have been to 'be honest'. That means saying that we thought the solution was 'A'. But the evidence changed and the science changed. So now we want you to do 'B'. I guess the communications advisors would have balked at 'changing the message' like that. But I am afraid that if the science changes, then the message has to change. If the powers that be were seen to be 'following the evidence' rather than just being wishy washy with a changing story, then the team of five million might still be along for the ride. If you made a proclamation that later turned out to be false (because the evidence has changed), then you have to own that mistake, and move on. People will respect you if you are honest. They won't respect you if you are forever seen to be 'covering up'.



no one thinks it deadly until someone in your family or circle is hit hard by it.


Yes and this is why the waste water tests in London this week showing polio virus fragments are such a concern. Polio shares with Covid-19 the characteristic that many of the people so infected have no or minimal symptoms. Yet no-one today would suggest we should just let polio run rampant again, even though some are prepared to do exactly that with Covid-19. I think there is far too much "it's all about me" with these diseases today. The 'freedom' protest at parliament earlier this year was individuals demanding the right to kill the vulnerable and the old. I am sure most of those protestors did not understand that that would be the effect if they won their 'freedom'. But I don't believe they were stupid - just manipulated and ignorant.



Is the govt even trying to get the next vaccine versions that fight the variants?


The vaccine makers seem to be taking their time with the new omicron specific vaccines, the one they were meant to be able to whip up in a few months courtesy of the mRNA technology they were using. I am not sure how much of the delay is 'science based' or 'regulatory authority based'.

SNOOPY

[Bobdn]

Yesterday's monster rally was bit of a fizzer for me because of the surging NZD. So USV.NZX actually went down a bit. USG did a bit better.

I'm now out of the Top 10 in the competition. Damn you NZD! Or USD for rolling over. Mind you, it's good for emf.nzx I guess (emerging markets).

[Habits]

Apparently the flu is beating C***d for putting people in hospital. Really.

[Ggcc]

Apparently the flu is beating C***d for putting people in hospital. Really.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/470546/middlemore-hospital-data-flu-cases-outnumber-covid-19-three-to-one

[Entrep]

Can confirm, the flu is brutal this season.

[causecelebre]

I have heard others say that going to another country is like a different world where no one worries about the C word and no masks in sight. Obviously I can't corroborate if that's true as I love being in godzone.

Still I myself got an exemption so can go maskless too. I have found no one questions it anyway. Being as fit as a frost and happy as a spring lamb I guess its ok

I better be careful what I say. Someone might tell me to "hit the road fatty"!

I've just returned from four months in France and Italy. Covid basically does't "exist" there. The only reminders you have are at the airport. Daily, no one wears masks, let alone gets tested. In NZ we have the govt and the media to remind us to be fearful. We are going back to Europe for a "normal" life as soon as we can.

[causecelebre]

To be fair I am more concerned about being rolled by a 12 year old gangster who's either building his Tik Tok following or pathway into the gangs

[alokdhir]

To be fair I am more concerned about being rolled by a 12 year old gangster who's either building his Tik Tok following or pathway into the gangs

Me too and I feel so sad for the plight of the retailers ...what a shame our country has become ...where crime pays even for fun and kicks

I didnt expect NZ to be worse then early 1900's Wild West ....So so disappointed and helpless

99% good people held to ransom by 1% goons and police and politicians who we pay just passing the buck !!!

[Ggcc]

I've just returned from four months in France and Italy. Covid basically does't "exist" there. The only reminders you have are at the airport. Daily, no one wears masks, let alone gets tested. In NZ we have the govt and the media to remind us to be fearful. We are going back to Europe for a "normal" life as soon as we can.

Europe has had Covid earlier than us and we are literally behind a year minimum involving the waves. Hopefully we wake up to people taking a common sense approach to things. That includes employers. If you are sick stay home.

[Aaron]

Yet when it became obvious the virus was out smarting the government, the government did absolutely nothing about it. And now we are paying for that inaction, with lives lost. An absolute disgrace IMO.

SNOOPY

Thanks Snoopy. 52 deaths per million bi-weekly equals 6,760 deaths per annum?(52*26*5million pop.) or .14% of the population. A lot of people none the less.

Although maybe we should not be listening to bull's hyperbole when he worries that rest homes will be cleaned out.

At the time I think the govt action was right to give us time to get vaccinated and learn more about the virus. In hindsight the amount of money created and spent seems a bit over the top. The vaccine was never going to stop you getting covid but reduced the severity and I did read somewhere that the unvaccinated were 3-4 times more likely to be hospitalised which is good considering the most at risk and therefore the most likely to be hospitalised people would have been vaccinated.

Not much more the govt can do I would have thought. People maybe need to be more mindful when they get sick and use a mask and wash your hands if you are worried or at risk and hope for the best.

I know it may sound uncaring or callous and there is no price you could put on the life of a loved one but as a country maybe we have to accept disease and death as part of everyday life.

Also probably not the thread for this discussion so sorry to all the traders.

[bull....]

Thanks Snoopy. 52 deaths per million bi-weekly equals 6,760 deaths per annum?(52*26*5million pop.) or .14% of the population. A lot of people none the less.

Although maybe we should not be listening to bull's hyperbole when he worries that rest homes will be cleaned out.

At the time I think the govt action was right to give us time to get vaccinated and learn more about the virus. In hindsight the amount of money created and spent seems a bit over the top. The vaccine was never going to stop you getting covid but reduced the severity and I did read somewhere that the unvaccinated were 3-4 times more likely to be hospitalised which is good considering the most at risk and therefore the most likely to be hospitalised people would have been vaccinated.

Not much more the govt can do I would have thought. People maybe need to be more mindful when they get sick and use a mask and wash your hands if you are worried or at risk and hope for the best.

I know it may sound uncaring or callous and there is no price you could put on the life of a loved one but as a country maybe we have to accept disease and death as part of everyday life.

Also probably not the thread for this discussion so sorry to all the traders.

snoopy makes valid points , i also on oca thread made a point about nz being top of the pack for death rate and i see you get the jist of my comment in regard to village care impact in the long run going by your numbers if this death rate continue or should i say accelerates.

it was more about supply/demand impact not wiped out

[Snoopy]

Also probably not the thread for this discussion so sorry to all the traders.


Reply transferred to the Covid-19 deaths thread in the 'Off market' section.

SNOOPY

[Panda-NZ-]

Me too and I feel so sad for the plight of the retailers ...what a shame our country has become ...where crime pays even for fun and kicks

I didnt expect NZ to be worse then early 1900's Wild West ....So so disappointed and helpless

99% good people held to ransom by 1% goons and police and politicians who we pay just passing the buck !!!

Well at least you can virtually deal with crims and provide a more appropriate response (NZ game developer too).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ready_or_Not_(video_game)

[stef]

Oh they are soooooo correct. At least they've got the balls to call it how it is, and how the rest of the world see it!!
I don't see many Australians running around speaking Aborigine. Nor having it forced down their throats in school, on TV, in newspapers, on every government building / letterhead, and on anything else the weak wokers can squeeze it in on.
It's no wonder people are leaving this country in droves.

I hear what you are saying, be interesting which country will be the better place to live in 10 yrs

[Panda-NZ-]

Is the bear market over, then?

[allfromacell]

Is the bear market over, then?

I would say most markets are back in bull markets now. Crypto and the Nasdaq definitely are, hopefully it holds.

Nervous times for those trading in and out and still sitting on the sidelines.

[alokdhir]

With Friday Sp500 closing over 50% retracement level of 4231 ...its now a firm belief of many TA analysts and chartists that Bear market is over in the manner that we will not see new low . They give example that since 1950 there is no instance that market went down to make new low if its closed over 50% retracement in bear rally ...they firmly believe that final low is in place . Now all dips which will be coming soon should be a Buying opportunities

Closing over 4231 made them think Bear market over

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-bulls-are-obsessed-with-the-4-231-level-for-the-s-p-500-11660309355?mod=home-page

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir ….must be one of your mates who said this -

Inflationary pressures appear to be peaking with volatility and a trough in investor sentiment. This suggests a cyclical bear market low is in place within a continuing secular bull. That said, I still think there's work to do with some backing and filing similar to 1990 or 1962.

I’m looking forward to market action over the rest of thevyear

And jeez we are going to get 2 sunny days in a row …good sign

[kiora]

Plus an All Black win...... look out

[alokdhir]

At this moment market is poised to enjoy some much better results then SP suggesting ...so August will be good .

Sept after all news gone and all stock ex dividend then they will just drift down due to lack of interest and participation

[blackie]

Plus an All Black win...... look out

exactly why I refrain from any social media prior to a test match replay on poor mans tv

[alokdhir]

NZX having trouble with its website postings ....Bad timing ...at start of reporting season !!!

[winner69]

Jeez



RBNZ target 4.5% OCR ..thats 7%+ morg rates .... massive recession coming for NZ ...what’ll do to the markets?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129552188/anz-believes-reserve-bank-may-plot-track-to-45-official-cash-rate-on-wednesday

[Entrep]

7% will break a lot of new home buyers/upgraders from I can tell anecdotally. It's worse than I thought speaking to friends and colleagues.

[Rawz]

The economy is already spluttering. Credit arrears building (off low base). It’s now a deflation story.

Probably see 2% mortgage rates late 2023??

[alokdhir]

The economy is already spluttering. Credit arrears building (off low base). It’s now a deflation story.

Probably see 2% mortgage rates late 2023??

World think tank has already come with report that says RBNZ will be the first world central bank to start reducing rates with first reduction around march 2023 !!

[mike2020]

If it's .5 they will add a lot of bluster. The RB seems to walk hand in hand with the Govt and no one wants to see first home buyers on the pavement. Look at todays news with the new wave of home buyers recent residents.

[Aaron]

Mortgages are nearly there now aren't they 6.5% floating?

https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing

Admittedly CPI is a lagging indicator but it is at 7.3% so not quite 1% positive in real terms for the poor borrowers.

As far as new home buyers hurting they had plenty of warning but took the risk of rising rates anyway. It is not the central banks mandate to save the home owners/risk takers. if that is the case they aren't taking much risk.

Central bank actions start to look like central planning rather than price stability.

Just ask some boomers what interest rate they were paying on their mortgages.

[bull....]

China has just announced a temporary suspension of customs clearance and cargo releases for all Australian and New Zealand goods, including meat, dairy, agricultural products and more.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/277fZbWYvk8a9nEFojsbVQ

that explain the sell -off in aud , nzd last night



okyo/Perth | Australian beef exporters are on high alert following reports that China may temporarily suspend all meat imports from Australia and New Zealand due to concerns about foot and mouth disease.
Other exporters were also alarmed on Monday by a Chinese media report which said China was suspending imports of Australian grain, dairy and (https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/277fZbWYvk8a9nEFojsbVQ)

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/alarm-for-australian-beef-exporters-over-reports-of-new-china-ban-20220815-p5ba0c

[JBmurc]

Jeez



RBNZ target 4.5% OCR ..thats 7%+ morg rates .... massive recession coming for NZ ...what’ll do to the markets?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129552188/anz-believes-reserve-bank-may-plot-track-to-45-official-cash-rate-on-wednesday

Yes like many Govt/CB around the world they are between a rock and a hard place ... we might well see dovish talk from RBNZ while still raising rates

. personally I think property consumer sentiment here in NZ will continue south .. which bank will lend to build if the builder can't give a fixed price contract ? how many FHB have the capital and income to be able to keep these bubble prices afloat ....how many young kiwis or even property investors will continue to buy up NZ property and keep the major industry in this nation afloat>>>If borrowing @ 6-7%+

[Rawz]

Swap rates not moving up, cost of funds the only thing that matters. OCR just playing catch up

[alokdhir]

Swap rates not moving up, cost of funds the only thing that matters. OCR just playing catch up

Agree with u ...Just hard talk ....Real rates market has a mind of its own and its not pushing real bank funding rates higher as it thinks its unsustainable

Banks are falling over each other reducing 2,3 and 5 year mortgage rates by giving specials as new business is drying up so fast

HGH has best one year rate of just 4.79%

[mike2020]

Bull, I'm pretty sure it's just beef and more hot air than anything official. Not Dairy.

[bull....]

Bull, I'm pretty sure it's just beef and more hot air than anything official. Not Dairy.

never took it as gospel but the newspaper post maybe a warning in disquise ? directed at aus/nz . thats how china works
guess time will tell

[alokdhir]

Bull, I'm pretty sure it's just beef and more hot air than anything official. Not Dairy.

U r right ...its based on FMD fears not any trade wars ....but Bull is looking to scare people as markets gone too far up for his liking ...lol

[bull....]

U r right ...its based on FMD fears not any trade wars ....but Bull is looking to scare people as markets gone too far up for his liking ...lol

dont talk rubbish , i picked the bottom for the rally near perfectly

[alokdhir]

dont talk rubbish , i picked the bottom for the rally near perfectly

Yes we all know U r the best mate ...no need to get too excited

[Baa_Baa]

never took it as gospel but the newspaper post maybe a warning in disquise ? directed at aus/nz . thats how china works
guess time will tell

There is only mention of meat imports in that China article, no mention of the other products like diary. Where did the inclusion of 'dairy' come from?

[Rawz]

never took it as gospel but the newspaper post maybe a warning in disquise ? directed at aus/nz . thats how china works
guess time will tell

wonder who will crack first. NZ exporters or the people not getting their beef?

Could be riots if the people dont get their black pepper beef

[bull....]

There is only mention of meat imports in that China article, no mention of the other products like diary. Where did the inclusion of 'dairy' come from?

the afr

says aus/ nz govt's investigating the rumour

[see weed]

The dow jones looks pretty impressive in the last 8 weeks. Seems like a fairly long dead cat and hoping it might go on for another month or so.

[Sideshow Bob]

China has just announced a temporary suspension of customs clearance and cargo releases for all Australian and New Zealand goods, including meat, dairy, agricultural products and more.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/277fZbWYvk8a9nEFojsbVQ

that explain the sell -off in aud , nzd last night



okyo/Perth | Australian beef exporters are on high alert following reports that China may temporarily suspend all meat imports from Australia and New Zealand due to concerns about foot and mouth disease.
Other exporters were also alarmed on Monday by a Chinese media report which said China was suspending imports of Australian grain, dairy and (https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/277fZbWYvk8a9nEFojsbVQ)

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/alarm-for-australian-beef-exporters-over-reports-of-new-china-ban-20220815-p5ba0c


Nothing official in NZ out.....yet.

At this stage, seems to be effecting Australia rather than NZ - although may just be a matter of time.

EDIT: Something picked up that wasn't from Chinese authorities, and more speculative than official. But seemed to get picked up pretty quickly in news channels......

[mike2020]

The dow jones looks pretty impressive in the last 8 weeks. Seems like a fairly long dead cat and hoping it might go on for another month or so.
Less of a bounce more of a shot at goal from behind halfway looking like it might be good and make it into the stands?

[Baa_Baa]

bull****

"Authorities quash report of meat import ban from Australia, New Zealand to China (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/08/authorities-quash-report-of-meat-import-ban-from-australia-new-zealand-to-china.html)"

Enquires found that products from Aotearoa continue to be cleared through the border.

Australia and New Zealand said on Tuesday they were aware of Chinese media reports of a ban on meat imports from both countries by Beijing but said they had not received any official notice and shipments had been clearing as normal.

The Australian Financial Review newspaper said one Chinese media outlet had reported that agricultural imports, particularly meat, from Australia and New Zealand may be suspended due to concerns about foot and mouth disease.

"We are aware of rumours. The Australian Embassy in Beijing has been in contact with China Customs and no formal notification has been issued," a spokesperson at the Australian agricultural department said in an emailed statement.

Steve Ainsworth, Market Access director at the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries, said exports were continuing as normal.

"We've made enquiries with Chinese authorities, including through our Embassy staff in China. These enquiries confirm that New Zealand products are continuing to be cleared through the border," he said in a statement.





China has just announced a temporary suspension of customs clearance and cargo releases for all Australian and New Zealand goods, including meat, dairy, agricultural products and more.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/277fZbWYvk8a9nEFojsbVQ

that explain the sell -off in aud , nzd last night



okyo/Perth | Australian beef exporters are on high alert following reports that China may temporarily suspend all meat imports from Australia and New Zealand due to concerns about foot and mouth disease.
Other exporters were also alarmed on Monday by a Chinese media report which said China was suspending imports of Australian grain, dairy and (https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/277fZbWYvk8a9nEFojsbVQ)

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/alarm-for-australian-beef-exporters-over-reports-of-new-china-ban-20220815-p5ba0c

[alokdhir]

Just got message from a NZ wine company Chinese friend who exports NZ wine to China .

He said last night Customs computer system was blocking anything with origin from NZ but now it has been sorted as was blamed as software glitch

Today everything is clearing as usual ...

[bull....]

sp500 retreated off 200d last night in an over brought condition though. lets see how it behaves going forward after a strong bounce from lows.

RBNZ no surprises , fed minutes no surprises all data dependant now

[bull....]

choppy session US stocks , be interesting if it fades back to flat for the mth. august normally a flat mth leading into a choppy to weak sept based on history.

NZD weak again following rbnz meeting.

wonder if the sharma drama will turn into something bigger around ardern following the exclusive news on newshub.
if you follow employment law ardern is supposed to conduct a independant third party enquiry into bullying being the employer but refuses too.

[alokdhir]

choppy session US stocks , be interesting if it fades back to flat for the mth. august normally a flat mth leading into a choppy to weak sept based on history.

NZD weak again following rbnz meeting.

wonder if the sharma drama will turn into something bigger around ardern following the exclusive news on newshub.
if you follow employment law ardern is supposed to conduct a independant third party enquiry into bullying being the employer but refuses too.

Almost all Sharma constituents and his contacts are on his side and corroborate his story ...He is portrayed as a genuine man and they seem to believe him

PM is in trouble as Sharma is refusing to fall in line to save her who is shielding wrong doers in her party as they are powerful and influential

There goes all the talk of fairness and natural justice which she champions ...

Politics is a dirty game ...assume all to be dirty as thats the only way they rise to top in this degenerated world

[mike2020]

So true, how many in the game enjoy the power and profile more than the social responsibility they have been given? Last night's news JA talking about the rise in children living in cars from 2017 rising from 51 to 228 in June this year. JA "they weren't counting right"

[bull....]

Labour's Dr Gaurav Sharma breaks silence, accusing Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern of 'cover-up', releases secret recording of MP
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/08/labour-s-dr-gaurav-sharma-breaks-silence-accusing-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-of-cover-up-releases-secret-recording-of-mp.html

[Baa_Baa]

choppy session US stocks , be interesting if it fades back to flat for the mth. august normally a flat mth leading into a choppy to weak sept based on history.

NZD weak again following rbnz meeting.

wonder if the sharma drama will turn into something bigger around ardern following the exclusive news on newshub.
if you follow employment law ardern is supposed to conduct a independant third party enquiry into bullying being the employer but refuses too.

Adern or Labour are not the employer. Parliamentary Service is the employer.