Black Monday

[bull....]

Today we will close strong ...anticipating better FED outcome tomorrow then priced ...as we going into FED decision deeply sold so whatever they may say will trigger a relief rally ...Your take ?

if you look at past meetings the real moves have come the day after fed meeting. even if it does bounce its still a bear

[alokdhir]

if you look at past meetings the real moves have come the day after fed meeting. even if it does bounce its still a bear

Hope u noted the word " Relief " ....also knowing your short term trader status ...I was only referring to short term bounce ...was not discussing anything more ...Bear or Bull ...lol

[Bjauck]

We need a total reset. Be good if it halved or preferably went down by 60-70%. Are you mostly mortgage free and sold out of the retirement village shares? Otherwise, tough for the people who bought with a large mortgage (often it was the only way for many to buy a home in expensive NZ) in the last 10 years?

We (the NZ electorate) have only ourselves to blame for expensive housing, and the resultant price bubble, as we were always reluctant to vote for meaningful reforms that may have prevented such expensive property prices and such lop-sided investment in real estate compared with other investments.

Disc: No mortgage, but have holdings in OCA, SUM and ARV

[bull....]

Hope u noted the word " Relief " ....also knowing your short term trader status ...I was only referring to short term bounce ...was not discussing anything more ...Bear or Bull ...lol

how could you make a call now on some event where you have no idea what they say or do lol you react to the event otherwise its just pure gambling

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It’s a balancing act between inflation and growth or rather, avoiding recession.

A lower NZ$ is necessary at this stage to cushion the economy with strong export earnings from a hard landing.

So Orr has his work cut out and I must admit I have my doubts he is up to the job with his wokeish approach to RBNZ policies.

This to me actually seems like a good thing. A scenario where the local housing market is being cooled, while our export industries remain in good shape from a slumping kiwi dollar., sounds like exactly what everyone wants (except for house builders/real estate agents of course).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Are you mostly mortgage free and sold out of the retirement village shares? Otherwise, tough for the people who bought with a large mortgage (often it was the only way for many to buy a home in expensive NZ) in the last 10 years?

We (the NZ electorate) have only ourselves to blame for expensive housing, and the resultant price bubble, as we were always reluctant to vote for meaningful reforms that may have prevented such expensive property prices and such lop-sided investment in real estate compared with other investments.

Disc: No mortgage, but have holdings in OCA, SUM and ARV

Data is that kiwi homes have an average of 25% mortgage / 75% equity as of a year ago, very few people have high mortgages in danger of entering negative equity (pretty much just first home buyers from last few years, but even they are predominantly in lower quartile value housing). Also, current mortgage rates are not that high (back to where they were in 2018) - they just feel high coming off historic lows.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

We need a total reset. Be good if it halved or preferably went down by 60-70%.

yes 50% would be amazing. We might get there on an inflation adjusted level in a few years hopefully (half from fall in prices + half from inflation).

[Bjauck]

Data is that kiwi homes have an average of 25% mortgage / 75% equity as of a year ago, very few people have high mortgages in danger of entering negative equity (pretty much just first home buyers from last few years, but even they are predominantly in lower quartile value housing). Also, current mortgage rates are not that high (back to where they were in 2018) - they just feel high coming off historic lows.
It is the more recent purchasers (last 10 years?) we should be more concerned about in Beagle’s house price collapse scenario. Also, during the pandemic high LTV loans were allowed in NZ, unlike in many other countries. Sure, FHB’s may buy lower value homes, but any squeeze will have a knock on effect, except perhaps for the homes of NZ’s very high net worth residents.

Even many recent home upgraders will have boosted their mortgages to progress up NZ’s property ownership ladder in the house price bubble. So not just a recent FHB issue.

[Bjauck]

yes 50% would be amazing. We might get there on an inflation adjusted level in a few years hopefully (half from fall in prices + half from inflation).
A gradual fall would be more manageable as opposed to a collapse of that magnitude.

[couta1]

yes 50% would be amazing. We might get there on an inflation adjusted level in a few years hopefully (half from fall in prices + half from inflation). You guys seem to delight yourselves in the prospect of others suffering misery so you can gain, its called Greed and its ugly.

[bull....]

yes 50% would be amazing. We might get there on an inflation adjusted level in a few years hopefully (half from fall in prices + half from inflation).

if house prices fell by 50% nz would be in a depression , ill ask you if your enjoying that then

[winner69]

Property prices heading south

From REINZ today


Across New Zealand, median prices for residential property increased 2.4% annually, from $820,000 in May 2021 to $840,000 in May 2022. Month-on-month, this represents a 4.0% decrease from $875,000 in April

blackpeter will laugh when I say that’s annualised 48% …so your 50% on track

[Leemsip]

Bit of shadenfreude from watching the last 5 years as the biggest risk takers and speculators made truckloads of money. For a humble value investor with some sort of risk management framework (how the F does a rental house stack up, how can anyone buy that tech stock at 30X revenue), this return to normality is pretty satisfying.

If you worry about the overleveraged investors emotional wellbeing that is big hearted.

No excuses for standing still here, wishing it wasnt happening, and focusing on those who are enjoying the ride down. None of that is the point.

Interest rates are going to climb (I expect 0.75 from the FED tomorrow), financial gravity is back and asset prices will fall across the board. Earnings are the next penny to drop. Lots of room to fall from here in housing and the unbuyable expensive shares on the NZE.

Im in mostly cash and waiting for early 2023 for some bargains

[Bjauck]

Indebted Eurozone countries will have to cope with increasing interest rates. Another Eurozone crisis to add to the mix? How long will they keep up Russian sanctions then? Will there be Ukaraine war fatigue in the West?
https://www.ft.com/content/fbb5149a-6a17-48df-a972-aa88382f533f

[LaserEyeKiwi]

You guys seem to delight yourselves in the prospect of others suffering misery so you can gain, its called Greed and its ugly.

Disagree. I have plenty of property holdings that will be worth a lot less if it happens (so not sure why you are saying I am displaying “greed” - my net wealth on paper will be significantly negatively impacted) - but it will create a far better environment for New Zealand if housing costs are half what they are now.

[alokdhir]

Property prices heading south

From REINZ today


Across New Zealand, median prices for residential property increased 2.4% annually, from $820,000 in May 2021 to $840,000 in May 2022. Month-on-month, this represents a 4.0% decrease from $875,000 in April

blackpeter will laugh when I say that’s annualised 48% …so your 50% on track

White House acknowledges that Americans are worried about inflation and stock prices ....That makes FED job more difficult ...as both cant be managed together ...but in todays world market sentiment is priced in instantaneously ...bonds at 3.5% US 10 year is already doing the job which FED intends to complete by next year ...as mortgages and other market user rates are determined by banks which depend on bond markets to set those ...means they already at TOP levels or even higher then what FED may finally do ...Inflation will take time to cool ...but wealth effect of high stocks and house prices is already almost gone ...Houses will keep falling for another year or so before flatlining for another ...Main point is rates are already doing their job for common man and even wealthy man . This will surely control inflation in due course ...Economy or growth will be collateral damage ...how severe is the only puzzle to be answered in time

[LaserEyeKiwi]

if house prices fell by 50% nz would be in a depression , ill ask you if your enjoying that then

Well here in wellington house prices are already off the highs by 20% from what i can see (handily the last round of council valuations were done at near the height of the market - and plenty of properties selling or being advertised for sale at 20% or more discount to their council valuation), and lets say they drop another 10-15% and then flatline, AND we continue having high inflation for another few years that compounds to a 20% increase - that effectively is near a 50% drop in housing prices. And all done without even a recession, let alone a depression.

[couta1]

Disagree. I have plenty of property holdings that will be worth a lot less if it happens (so not sure why you are saying I am displaying “greed” - my net wealth on paper will be significantly negatively impacted) - but it will create a far better environment for New Zealand if housing costs are half what they are now. You were agreeing with Beagles comment and desire for a 60-70% drop, my reference to Greed refers to some on here who are continually wanting prices to drop solely so they can buy cheaper and cheaper, they never seem satisfied with a certain level that is already cheap.

[bull....]

Well here in wellington house prices are already off the highs by 20% from what i can see (handily the last round of council valuations were done at near the height of the market - and plenty of properties selling or being advertised for sale at 20% or more discount to their council valuation), and lets say they drop another 10-15% and then flatline, AND we continue having high inflation for another few years that compounds to a 20% increase - that effectively is near a 50% drop in housing prices. And all done without even a recession, let alone a depression.

recession is coming , i hope your tenants can afford your rent.

[Leemsip]

White House acknowledges that Americans are worried about inflation and stock prices ....That makes FED job more difficult ...as both cant be managed together ...but in todays world market sentiment is priced in instantaneously ...bonds at 3.5% US 10 year is already doing the job which FED intends to complete by next year ...as mortgages and other market user rates are determined by banks which depend on bond markets to set those ...means they already at TOP levels or even higher then what FED may finally do ...Inflation will take time to cool ...but wealth effect of high stocks and house prices is already almost gone ...Houses will keep falling for another year or so before flatlining for another ...Main point is rates are already doing their job for common man and even wealthy man . This will surely control inflation in due course ...Economy or growth will be collateral damage ...how severe is the only puzzle to be answered in time

Excellent comment Alok. Bond and mortgage markets have run off in advance of the central banks. Assets will take a while to find a new (lower) level. Just a question of how much lower now.....

Quite a stressful time for everyone involved.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

White House acknowledges that Americans are worried about inflation and stock prices ....That makes FED job more difficult ...as both cant be managed together ...but in todays world market sentiment is priced in instantaneously ...bonds at 3.5% US 10 year is already doing the job which FED intends to complete by next year ...as mortgages and other market user rates are determined by banks which depend on bond markets to set those ...means they already at TOP levels or even higher then what FED may finally do ...Inflation will take time to cool ...but wealth effect of high stocks and house prices is already almost gone ...Houses will keep falling for another year or so before flatlining for another ...Main point is rates are already doing their job for common man and even wealthy man . This will surely control inflation in due course ...Economy or growth will be collateral damage ...how severe is the only puzzle to be answered in time

The big problem currently is that the main cause of inflation - high energy costs - are not at all linked to demand. The fed raising interest rates isn’t going to change the Putin tax at all. If Fed raised by 100 or even 200 basis points tomorrow, it isn’t going to drop forecast energy demand by anywhere near enough to approach anything that would see demand/supply equilibrium revert to a lower priced level.

[alokdhir]

The big problem currently is that the main cause of inflation - high energy costs - are not at all linked to demand. The fed raising interest rates isn’t going to change the Putin tax at all. If Fed raised by 100 or even 200 basis points tomorrow, it isn’t going to drop forecast energy demand by anywhere near enough to approach anything that would see demand/supply equilibrium revert to a lower priced level.

That will get reduced automatically in course of time if further inflation of crude is controlled by current measures ...Inflation is measured PCP basis ...so even if crude stays at $ 120 levels ...it will be nil contributor to inflation next year ...but its trickle down effect on other stuff can be controlled by demand control ie rates

[bull....]

nz10yr rate has opened up strong again today 4.26 at the moment .
those bond proxy stocks under pressure again

[LaserEyeKiwi]

That will get reduced automatically in course of time if further inflation of crude is controlled by current measures ...Inflation is measured PCP basis ...so even if crude stays at $ 120 levels ...it will be nil contributor to inflation next year ...but its trickle down effect on other stuff can be controlled by demand control ie rates

Indeed you are correct, eventually the year on year increases reduce. Not any help in the near term though.

Biden making a pilgrimage to mecca next week (heading to Saudi Arabia) - probably the most important meeting of his presidency - if he can convince Saudis to step up its supply (which it has the ability to do with its spare capacity), then that may be enough to start reversing oil price. Not sure what Biden will have to offer in a quid pro quo - but it will likely have to be significant. Saudis have him over the proverbial (oil) barrel.

[Waltzing]

If inflation comes down later this year? according to Prof Siegel than well its a buyers market now?

Like in the movies " Feeling lucky punk?"

[Azz]

The big problem currently is that the main cause of inflation - high energy costs - are not at all linked to demand. The fed raising interest rates isn’t going to change the Putin tax at all. If Fed raised by 100 or even 200 basis points tomorrow, it isn’t going to drop forecast energy demand by anywhere near enough to approach anything that would see demand/supply equilibrium revert to a lower priced level.

The main cause of inflation is the unlimited printing of fiat money out of the thinness of air.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The main cause of inflation is the unlimited printing of fiat money out of the thinness of air.

If that was true we would have had rampant inflation for the entire last decade, which we definitely didn’t.

Inflation from 2009 to 2021 averaged only 1.97% annually, the lowest 12 year period of inflation in modern history.

And fiat money isn’t created “out of thin air” like the make believe crypto currencies are. It is created with the understanding that it is backed by a government which has monopoly power to tax its citizenry & assets as it wishes. Compare this to any crypto not backed by real assets (eg 99.99% of them), which have precisely zero ability to raise funds from any citizenry.

[Azz]

If that was true we would have had rampant inflation for the entire last decade, which we definitely didn’t.

Inflation from 2009 to 2021 averaged only 1.97% annually, the lowest 12 year period of inflation in modern history.

And you conveniently don't include house prices.

[Muse]

nz10yr rate has opened up strong again today 4.26 at the moment .
those bond proxy stocks under pressure again

Breathtaking rise.

10 year gov bond now back to its 20 year average of 4.32% (march 2002 to march 2022)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

And you conveniently don't include house prices.

I’m using the official US inflation figure, which includes a housing costs component.

Housing prices are currently falling - are you suggesting we are in a deflationary environment?

[Azz]

I’m using the official US inflation figure, which includes a housing costs component.

Housing prices are currently falling - are you suggesting we are in a deflationary environment?

We are experiencing monetary inflation - ie, the bastardization of fiat currencies - and it's been happening for a long time. It is nothing to do with "oil" or "Putin". Here's an exercise for you: for the last 12 years, add a proper house-price component to the "official" inflation figure that is provided here in New Zealand. What's the percentage?

[Muse]

The main cause of inflation is the unlimited printing of fiat money out of the thinness of air.


my two cents only but I'd say there is a lot more to it than that

industrial production shut down in a major way in the immediate aftermath of covid - businesses all thought they were being prudent in doing so in the face of a depression thought to be imminent but never occurred, thanks to massive government intervention (wage keeper & its derivatives) & 0% official cash rates

What we got was an eventual demand shock, as households saved loads after being forced into lockdowns (couldn't spend, couldn't travel, refinanced their mortgages at extremely low rates, etc). that combined with very little capacity to produce and transport alone had enough firepower to rip the engine out of the chassis. huge bottlenecks of semiconductors limiting production, constrained oil and gas supply, sold off trucks and mothbolled tankers, etc

Then we had massive fiscal and monetary policy errors: too much ongoing stimulus (mostly in america but in pretty much most countries) where even when it was clear demand was outstripping supply we continued to implement stimulus. The biden stimulus in early 2021 was madness. and reserve banks continued to keep rates low in the face of a rapidly improving picture, and continued to buy bonds increasing the monetary supply, and continue to dither to this day. And other policy side effects, like closing our border which meant we couldnt get RSE and skilled labour in, etc etc

Then we got a war and a nasty supply shock further driving up the price of oil and food

lots of issues at play here, and no wonder inflation is so strong, broad-based, and unrepentant.

[Azz]

If that was true we would have had rampant inflation for the entire last decade, which we definitely didn’t.

Inflation from 2009 to 2021 averaged only 1.97% annually, the lowest 12 year period of inflation in modern history.

And fiat money isn’t created “out of thin air” like the make believe crypto currencies are. It is created with the understanding that it is backed by a government which has monopoly power to tax its citizenry & assets as it wishes. Compare this to any crypto not backed by real assets (eg 99.99% of them), which have precisely zero ability to raise funds from any citizenry.

You heard of the Weimar Republic? Fiat currencies most certainly ARE created out of thin air. They aren't backed by anything at all. A fat finger on a keyboard creates the "money" which is then given to the banks who create more of it by fractionally lending it out, and it's mostly used to buy big-ticket items like a house.

[SailorRob]

If that was true we would have had rampant inflation for the entire last decade, which we definitely didn’t.

Inflation from 2009 to 2021 averaged only 1.97% annually, the lowest 12 year period of inflation in modern history.

And fiat money isn’t created “out of thin air” like the make believe crypto currencies are. It is created with the understanding that it is backed by a government which has monopoly power to tax its citizenry & assets as it wishes. Compare this to any crypto not backed by real assets (eg 99.99% of them), which have precisely zero ability to raise funds from any citizenry.

It's backed by the future production of the nation. Money is created when loans are taken out, thus the assets backing it are the future earnings of the people, as well as taxing authority etc.

[SailorRob]

You heard of the Weimar Republic? Fiat currencies most certainly ARE created out of thin air. They aren't backed by anything at all. A fat finger on a keyboard creates the "money" which is then given to the banks who create more of it by fractionally lending it out, and it's mostly used to buy big-ticket items like a house.

Totally wrong.

They can be... But that doesn't mean they are. I can build a house out of horse dung, but not all houses are.

[Azz]

It's backed by the future production of the nation. Money is created when loans are taken out, thus the assets backing it are the future earnings of the people, as well as taxing authority etc.

In other words, it's backed by something that doesn't exist.

[Azz]

Totally wrong.

They can be... But that doesn't mean they are. I can build a house out of horse dung, but not all houses are.

Totally wrong? Good Lord, I'm discussing this topic with an idiot. No offense.

[SailorRob]

Totally wrong? Good Lord, I'm discussing this topic with an idiot. No offense.

A portion of money is backed by future production which does not exist. A bleak view indeed.

A vast majority is backed by guns and steel and current real assets.

Judging by your understanding of basic concepts, I pity you and anyone having to rely on you to provide or produce.

You owe it to yourself to try and understand how the world works, even if just to the level of a small child.

[SailorRob]

Totally wrong? Good Lord, I'm discussing this topic with an idiot. No offense.

And a very apt name you have chosen for yourself too I must admit.

[Azz]

A portion of money is backed by future production which does not exist. A bleak view indeed.

A vast majority is backed by guns and steel and current real assets.

Judging by your understanding of basic concepts, I pity you and anyone having to rely on you to provide or produce.

You owe it to yourself to try and understand how the world works, even if just to the level of a small child.

What a lovely post, so full of spite to cover up your inability to see what's in front of your own eyes: fiat money has been printed so much that the only thing to now stop the inflation is interest rates in the double figures which will cripple the world because the money printing has created a world completely awash in debt.

[Azz]

my two cents only but I'd say there is a lot more to it than that

industrial production shut down in a major way in the immediate aftermath of covid - businesses all thought they were being prudent in doing so in the face of a depression thought to be imminent but never occurred, thanks to massive government intervention (wage keeper & its derivatives) & 0% official cash rates

What we got was an eventual demand shock, as households saved loads after being forced into lockdowns (couldn't spend, couldn't travel, refinanced their mortgages at extremely low rates, etc). that combined with very little capacity to produce and transport alone had enough firepower to rip the engine out of the chassis. huge bottlenecks of semiconductors limiting production, constrained oil and gas supply, sold off trucks and mothbolled tankers, etc

Then we had massive fiscal and monetary policy errors: too much ongoing stimulus (mostly in america but in pretty much most countries) where even when it was clear demand was outstripping supply we continued to implement stimulus. The biden stimulus in early 2021 was madness. and reserve banks continued to keep rates low in the face of a rapidly improving picture, and continued to buy bonds increasing the monetary supply, and continue to dither to this day. And other policy side effects, like closing our border which meant we couldnt get RSE and skilled labour in, etc etc

Then we got a war and a nasty supply shock further driving up the price of oil and food

lots of issues at play here, and no wonder inflation is so strong, broad-based, and unrepentant.

Nice summary. And when supply/demand gets more normalized, our money will still be worth much less than it was just a few years ago. In other words, the overriding aspect here is MONETARY inflation.

[SailorRob]

What a lovely post, so full of spite to cover up your inability to see what's in front of your own eyes: fiat money has been printed so much that the only thing to now stop the inflation is interest rates in the double figures which will cripple the world because the money printing has created a world completely awash in debt.

Ass, it's not what you don't know that will hurt you. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

I've just informed Warren that his hundred odd billion dollars in cash (some 20 percent of total equity) is actually created out of thin air and worthless paper. It is a wonder the world's greatest has made this elementary mistake and held this cash for so long.

Unlike you, Warren and I cannot predict future interest rates. As you can, you will be able to trade with this information and come back and show us your results.

[Azz]

Ass, it's not what you don't know that will hurt you. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

I've just informed Warren that his hundred odd billion dollars in cash (some 20 percent of total equity) is actually created out of thin air and worthless paper. It is a wonder the world's greatest has made this elementary mistake and held this cash for so long.

Unlike you, Warren and I cannot predict future interest rates. As you can, you will be able to trade with this information and come back and show us your results.

Is that the Warren who works at the Burger King in town?

[SailorRob]

Is that the Warren who works at the Burger King in town?

Doesn't just work there. He's the bloody manager.

[Panda-NZ-]

"You can't rely on your govt during this pandemic so buy sh*tcoins instead.

Well, the rest of the developed world's govt are fine, fix the govt rather than buying a sh*t coin.

[Azz]

.............

[Tomtom]

This to me actually seems like a good thing. A scenario where the local housing market is being cooled, while our export industries remain in good shape from a slumping kiwi dollar., sounds like exactly what everyone wants (except for house builders/real estate agents of course). Yeah...if you ignore the deleterious effects of rampant inflation on consumers everything else is in balance.

[Tomtom]

if house prices fell by 50% nz would be in a depression , ill ask you if your enjoying that then I think people worry excessively about house price revaluation events when predominantly those are driven by the prevailing global interest rate environment. We'd a halcyon period of low energy, food and labour prices that suppressed tradable inflation while assets boomed. That appears over.

The people who I worry will suffer most are actually those reliant on selling assets (unless those assets are in food or energy of course) or
those on fixed incomes, like retirees.

On the other hand my suspicion is that demographic shifts mean that working people will be net beneficiaries of there being more consumers per worker.

[Azz]

I think people worry excessively about house price revaluation events when predominantly those are driven by the prevailing global interest rate environment. We'd a halcyon period of low energy, food and labour prices that suppressed tradable inflation while assets boomed. That appears over.

The people who I worry will suffer most are actually those reliant on selling assets (unless those assets are in food or energy of course) or
those on fixed incomes, like retirees.

On the other hand my suspicion is that demographic shifts mean that working people will be net beneficiaries of there being more consumers per worker.

A severe "house price revaluation event" is not going to occur because once the underwater people are forced out everyone else just holds. A minor "house price revaluation event" has already happened/is happening. A medium "house price revaluation event" is on the cards and, all things considered, won't hurt or help anyone - I think 50/50 that it occurs. But a very dangerous game this is; the housing market is the only thing keeping NZ above water.

[bull....]

NZ 10yr at nearly 4.3% now :scared: watch them banks jack up mtges

[Azz]

We're nearly halfway to double figures!

[Rawz]

House prices will only crash if supply of houses swamps demand.
House prices will ease when rates go up. As we are seeing.

But until people no longer need to live in garages or 7 people sleeping in a 3 bedroom house i dont think we will see a crash. Just prices reverting back to normal, from sky high levels ..

[winner69]

Jeez financial crisis share market tumbles first up on TV1 news tonite

People on street being wiped out …terrible stuff

Must be happening …a real thing

Guru Mark tried to calm things down but not a good job.

And we lost the cricket and the soccer

[nztx]

Wait until the US Cash Rate decision tomorrow morning hits the markets .. we possibly could see a further slide
as it washes around the globe

[Bobdn]

@winner, excellent. The MSM loves a good blood bath. Not unsurprisingly, one never hears a peep when shares creep back up again.

I wonder if NZ tv news talking about it is a sign we're near a bottom lol.

Who the Fword knows

[Muse]

Wait until the US Cash Rate decision tomorrow morning hits the markets .. we possibly could see a further slide
as it washes around the globe

circa 7am tomorrow, NZ time? should be, topical.

[iamaskier]

House prices will only crash if supply of houses swamps demand.
House prices will ease when rates go up. As we are seeing.

But until people no longer need to live in garages or 7 people sleeping in a 3 bedroom house i dont think we will see a crash. Just prices reverting back to normal, from sky high levels ..

I see a number of ppl saying this but isn't it true that the explosion in house prices over the last 2 yrs was far more closely correlated to cheap debt/QE than it was the number of ppl crammed into a house? Therefore it would surely stand to reason that a reasonable chunk of this spike could unwind as debt becomes more expensive?

Tbf I don't think we'll necessarily get right back to where we were either but I guess I struggle with the concept that on the way up, house prices are driven by interest rates/ access to capital but on the way down it's more about the number of families sleeping in garages.

[Tomtom]

NZ 10yr at nearly 4.3% now :scared: watch them banks jack up mtges Yeah, the ECB called an emergency meeting to bail out Italy. Not sure how they'll manage that in a rising inflation environment. Last time they could just buy bonds. None the less they've called the meeting.

[Rawz]

I see a number of ppl saying this but isn't it true that the explosion in house prices over the last 2 yrs was far more closely correlated to cheap debt/QE than it was the number of ppl crammed into a house? Therefore it would surely stand to reason that a reasonable chunk of this spike could unwind as debt becomes more expensive?

Tbf I don't think we'll necessarily get right back to where we were either but I guess I struggle with the concept that on the way up, house prices are driven by interest rates/ access to capital but on the way down it's more about the number of families sleeping in garages.
Yeah I was specifically talking about a housing market crash. Which will only happen if supply completely overruns demand.

The higher rates go the more house prices will fall. But I don’t foresee a crash

[Habits]

the housing market is the only thing keeping NZ above water.

What about agricultural exports

[Cyclical]

Well here in wellington house prices are already off the highs by 20% from what i can see (handily the last round of council valuations were done at near the height of the market - and plenty of properties selling or being advertised for sale at 20% or more discount to their council valuation), and lets say they drop another 10-15% and then flatline, AND we continue having high inflation for another few years that compounds to a 20% increase - that effectively is near a 50% drop in housing prices. And all done without even a recession, let alone a depression.

Yeah, I think that is the more realistic path to such a huge relative drop, and would be more of a soft landing, vs prices actually halving and plunging many people into negative equity, with huge consequences on the economy for many years ahead.

[Baa_Baa]

Well here in wellington house prices are already off the highs by 20% from what i can see (handily the last round of council valuations were done at near the height of the market - and plenty of properties selling or being advertised for sale at 20% or more discount to their council valuation), and lets say they drop another 10-15% and then flatline, AND we continue having high inflation for another few years that compounds to a 20% increase - that effectively is near a 50% drop in housing prices. And all done without even a recession, let alone a depression.

If you're not planning on selling a house anytime soon, and even better if you have no mortgage, all of this is irrelevant and time will reverse the current situation back to appreciation in house prices, for as long as demand exceeds supply.

The annoying thing though is the QV, RV revaluations at the peak market prices (which is very convenient for Councils) as that flows through to rates calculations, so plenty of folks are seeing a large uplift in their rates. Thankfully there's an objection process, and I recommend people exercise their right to challenge the Council valuations which are basically done by some nerd with a spreadsheet whose never seen or been to your house. Your objection means the Council have to send a real person to value the house and property, and even if you don't like that and can pay for an independent valuation, which will almost always be a lot less, you can change your rates bill.

[Azz]

What about agricultural exports

I'm not discounting things like that. What I mean is, if housing gets hit too hard it's a big drop in economic activity and whereby some people will be indebted to an asset that is worth less than they paid (borrowed) for it. It may not be so bad in a "medium" crash; but it won't be in any way *good* either that's for sure. It's playing with fire. A severe crash will not mean a continued reduction in prices but instead near-zero housing on the market - it will be a very strange and worrisome time indeed.

[alokdhir]

No post from Bull early morning means ....FED news good for market ...as expected ...whatever FED would have done ...would have been liked by this oversold markets looking for excuses to bounce back ....Bull calls it gambling when others do ...but for him its insights ...lol :p

[couta1]

No post from Bull early morning means ....FED news good for market ...as expected ...whatever FED would have done ...would have been liked by this oversold markets looking for excuses to bounce back ....Bull calls it gambling when others do ...but for him its insights ...lol :p Haha yeah the absence of the morning gloom n doom prophet is telling, its green shoots today.

[bull....]

lol hope you 2 are enjoying the big NZX bounce lol.
anyway i was busy digesting all the fed talk and i believe powell is going to hike rates no matter what happens to the economy. in other words if it means a recession too bad and that means stocks will be collateral damage in the process.

so enjoy the little stock bounce it be back to trend in due course

[Rawz]

lol hope you 2 are enjoying the big NZX bounce lol.
anyway i was busy digesting all the fed talk and i believe powell is going to hike rates no matter what happens to the economy. in other words if it means a recession too bad and that means stocks will be collateral damage in the process.

so enjoy the little stock bounce it be back to trend in due course

I agree. But Bull you really do need to change your name to Bear lol. A true bull wouldnt post like you do

[bull....]

I agree. But Bull you really do need to change your name to Bear lol. A true bull wouldnt post like you do

smart investors change there stripes to match the occasion

[777]

I agree. But Bull you really do need to change your name to Bear lol. A true bull wouldnt post like you do

I always thought the .... at the end of bull stood for what was posted.

[bull....]

I always thought the .... at the end of bull stood for what was posted.

the typical post by a person who doesnt like anything but positive comment and who contributes little as well to the conversation. maybe due to lack of knowledge ?

[winner69]

GDP +5.1% over last year

Pretty good

Government will probably take credit for such a good result

[777]

the typical post by a person who doesnt like anything but positive comment and who contributes little as well to the conversation. maybe due to lack of knowledge ?

LOL. It was you who selected your name and I thought that was your intention.

[Monarch]

GDP +5.1% over last year

Pretty good

Government will probably take credit for such a good result

Is that real gdp though? If it is nominal then inflation kinda ruins that stat doesn't it?

[winner69]

Is that real gdp though? If it is nominal then inflation kinda ruins that stat doesn't it?

Real (2009/2010 prices)

[bull....]

LOL. It was you who selected your name and I thought that was your intention.

gets a bit annoying when everyone things its sh.t , it may have been f..k , c..t, , c..k , d..k , b..t , c..p etc etc guess nobody will ever know except admin

[winner69]

GDP +5.1% over last year

Pretty good

Government will probably take credit for such a good result

In reality March qtr GDP was down 0.2% from Dec 2020 qtr

June quarter negative --- probably is ---- means we are in a RECESSION now ---- confirming what many have said

[alokdhir]

If USA is up tonight ....which has a good chance then tomorrows Index rebalancing exercise will be very interesting ...may lead to some big movements in beaten down stocks

[BlackPeter]

smart investors change there stripes to match the occasion

Just remind us - have you ever been a bull other than by name?

[bull....]

No post from Bull early morning means ....FED news good for market ...as expected ...whatever FED would have done ...would have been liked by this oversold markets looking for excuses to bounce back ....Bull calls it gambling when others do ...but for him its insights ...lol :p

not much of a bounce for you
NZX crushed this arvo , just as we thought would happen.
must have been the GDP data right.
jeez whats going to happen later this yr when we are in full on recession. :scared:

[Panda-NZ-]

..when we are in full on recession.

In the midst of a food crisis? It may well become the next oil.

[Bobdn]

People are too negative about New Zealand. If you compare us against other Hermit Kingdoms, we're definitely punching above our weight.

[Azz]

...

"People are too negative about New Zealand. If you compare us against other Hermit Kingdoms, we're definitely punching above our weight."

Lol !

[alokdhir]

In reality March qtr GDP was down 0.2% from Dec 2020 qtr

June quarter negative --- probably is ---- means we are in a RECESSION now ---- confirming what many have said

Makes RBNZ job more difficult if not impossible ...knowing our softish govt ...they will prefer lower rates with some inflation ...as they can send gifts direct credits via IRD newly setup facility ...$ 350 should help every quarter .lol

On serious note ...I think makes all the more sense to start buying GNE type recession proof high yield stocks to tide over lower growth and not so high rates ...

Our NZD will drop to 0.55 sooner then we think when market will realise that RBNZ cant raise rates like FED ....FPH and MFT will shine ....MFT is 75% non NZD revenues now ...so basically exporter ...also exposed to many economies not just NZ

[Tomtom]

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen, It looks like we are in for a very interesting day in US and European markets.

[bull....]

MARKETS (https://www.cnbc.com/markets/)Dow falls more than 600 points, tumbling below 30,000 to the lowest level in more than a year
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

at this time of the morning so still a couple hrs to go. not surprised markets are down as powell signalled a more hawkish tightening path than before.

ASX looking weak for today so i guess nzx will be too

[bull....]

In the midst of a food crisis? It may well become the next oil.

yep the food crisis should be a worry. diesel and fertilizer costs mean less production in some countries in nz it means less people eventually able to afford food which means less production eventually

[alokdhir]

I am surprised with NZD response to Wall Street carnage ....Confused with NZD jumping so high after dismal GDP report and Hawkish Fed ...!!!!

Maybe this will also do same at US equity markets next day ...lol

[bull....]

I am surprised with NZD response to Wall Street carnage ....Confused with NZD jumping so high after dismal GDP report and Hawkish Fed ...!!!!

Maybe this will also do same at US equity markets next day ...lol

cause the US dollar is down thats all

[alokdhir]

cause the US dollar is down thats all

Normally that doesn't happen ...thats why I am surprised ...USD goes up as safe haven currency and NZD is dumped as risk aversion happens ...NZD is the barometer of risk appetite / equity investment climate ...Today this correlation totally awry ...that was the point

[bull....]

Normally that doesn't happen ...thats why I am surprised ...USD goes up as safe haven currency and NZD is dumped as risk aversion happens ...NZD is the barometer of risk appetite / equity investment climate ...Today this correlation totally awry ...that was the point

just profit taking as the US dollar had rallied strongly prior to fed

[alokdhir]

just profit taking as the US dollar had rallied strongly prior to fed

Makes it right opportunity to go the other way then ...short NZD ...:D

[bull....]

Makes it right opportunity to go the other way then ...short NZD ...:D

guess so if you believe its going to 55c which i think you were saying it might

[alokdhir]

guess so if you believe its going to 55c which i think you were saying it might

Thats medium term view as per closing of interest rate gap between USD and NZD on horizon after seeing our dismal GDP data ...FED will keep raising rates while our RBNZ will not have that much ammunition left after another 1% or so ....

[bull....]

Thats medium term view as per closing of interest rate gap between USD and NZD on horizon after seeing our dismal GDP data ...FED will keep raising rates while our RBNZ will not have that much ammunition left after another 1% or so ....

ah so you think ORR will buckle under the pressure of a recession and give up his fight to contain inflation

[alokdhir]

ah so you think ORR will buckle under the pressure of a recession and give up his fight to contain inflation

What will u do in such situation ...make a recession into deep slumber for longer or give moderate rates more time to contain inflation...normally recession itself can contain inflation thats why high rates trigger recessions first normally before inflation vanishes in due course

[bull....]

What will u do in such situation ...make a recession into deep slumber for longer or give moderate rates more time to contain inflation...normally recession itself can contain inflation thats why high rates trigger recessions first normally before inflation vanishes in due course

what would you want , moderate inflation that just keeps making you poorer each yr or a short painful recession to kill it

[Habits]

Would we be having this conversation if Russia had not invaded. Food and fuel prices have soared ever since. So what happens to inflation if the unlikely pullout comes

[alokdhir]

what would you want , moderate inflation that just keeps making you poorer each yr or a short painful recession to kill it

U r again missing the point ...Higher rates to trigger recession to kill inflation ...our recession will happen sooner with lower rates then in USA ...aim of both central banks is to kill inflation ...we will reach that goal sooner without need to reach 5% ....Recessions kill inflation ...they are the byproduct of higher rates for inflation fight and they are mostly the first stop in reaching the eventual goal ...

Like u said short painful recession to kill it ...we will reach there sooner thats all I am adding

[bull....]

Would we be having this conversation if Russia had not invaded. Food and fuel prices have soared ever since. So what happens to inflation if the unlikely pullout comes

russia / ukraine war is only part of the inflation problem

[winner69]

Jeez …US markets down more than 3%

Some gurus on CNBC yesterday said things were all sorted and the bottom had been reached …. Guess you never believe what’s said on CNBC

[BlackPeter]

Jeez …US markets down more than 3%

Some gurus on CNBC yesterday said things were all sorted and the bottom had been reached …. Guess you never believe what’s said on CNBC

Nothing to do with CNBC.

Never ever believe anything anybody tries to tell you about the future ... particularly if stock prices are involved.

[winner69]

Nothing to do with CNBC.

Never ever believe anything anybody tries to tell you about the future ... particularly if stock prices are involved.

that bull is pretty good at looking into the future

[bull....]

that bull is pretty good at looking into the future

thx winner
you and i know its about reading the tea leaves and putting 2 and 2 together
what really announced to me the end was here for the bull market was late last yr when all the fuss erupted in the media about the fed people owning stocks etc and how quickly they announced such ethical moves as oh yea we wont do this ill sell all my stocks now and we wont do it again lol
that was the biggest signal to me to get out lol
conspiracy ? lol

[JBmurc]

Nothing to do with CNBC.

Never ever believe anything anybody tries to tell you about the future ... particularly if stock prices are involved.

Depends who they interview , of course most talk their book ...who doesn't if you went to a RE Agent today asked him where Property is going there not going tell you its a Horrible time to invest ....Kyle bass was a great interview on CNBC he sees the market down 30-40% If the FED carry's on it present path

[BlackPeter]

that bull is pretty good at looking into the future

Might be a timing issue. If I look at he right time at my broken clock it is as well pretty good in telling me the time :p ;

But not trying to pick on this particular animal. We have a number of posters who predicted the current bearmarket for years to come ... and now it arrived. So - are they right now and have been wrong then, or are these just minor timing issues (a' la my broken clock)?

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

"Nobody can predict future stock prices" (Ben Graham)

Anyway - anybody who predicts the future often enough is sometimes right .... its just impossible to predict in advance when they will be right and when they will be wrong ... (BlackPeter)

[winner69]

Might be a timing issue. If I look at he right time at my broken clock it is as well pretty good in telling me the time :p ;

That broken clock phrase has popped up many times over the last few days it's just like a broken record

[BlackPeter]

That broken clock phrase has popped up many times over the last few days it's just like a broken record

Sure - just because many people mke the same observation must not necessarily make it more true - but it does not make it more false either.

[bull....]

Might be a timing issue. If I look at he right time at my broken clock it is as well pretty good in telling me the time :p ;

But not trying to pick on this particular animal. We have a number of posters who predicted the current bearmarket for years to come ... and now it arrived. So - are they right now and have been wrong then, or are these just minor timing issues (a' la my broken clock)?

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr) yes correct

"Nobody can predict future stock prices" (Ben Graham) people believe that when they cant do

Anyway - anybody who predicts the future often enough is sometimes right .... its just impossible to predict in advance when they will be right and when they will be wrong ... (BlackPeter) i think we all predict the future dont we thats what investing is about. it is diffently about how many time you are right over wrong

[winner69]

Jeez inflation really hitting home these days

Lunch snack of oysters, chips and a can of Coke was about $25 yesterday ….and there were only 6 oysters

But pleasant times sitting on a log on the beach eating them while watching boats and AIRplanes coming and going

[alokdhir]

Drama time folks ...Index rebalancing act takes over all other factors back burner ....anything to sell ...now is the time if stocks up ...lol

[nztx]

Jeez inflation really hitting home these days

Lunch snack of oysters, chips and a can of Coke was about $25 yesterday ….and there were only 6 oysters

But pleasant times sitting on a log on the beach eating them while watching boats and AIRplanes coming and going



Worth buying the oyster farm yet ? what could possibly go wrong ? :)

could be some hidden pearls somewhere ..

[sb9]

Drama time folks ...Index rebalancing act takes over all other factors back burner ....anything to sell ...now is the time if stocks up ...lol

Crazy volumes but no crazy prices though, yet...

[alokdhir]

Crazy volumes but no crazy prices though, yet...

Check GNE and IFT then u will say ok

[sb9]

Check GNE and IFT then u will say ok

Yeah, i guess so, I was looking more at FBU.

[bull....]

key news friday

Fed promises ‘unconditional’ approach to taking down inflation in report to Congress


“The Committee’s commitment to restoring price stability — which is necessary for sustaining a strong labor market — is unconditional,” the Fed said in a report to Congress

Earlier in the day, Powell himself made a similar vow, saying he and the rest of the Fed are “acutely focused” on bringing down inflation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/17/fed-promises-unconditional-approach-to-taking-down-inflation-in-report-to-congress.html

hope you all understand what it means

anyway we should all be celebrating the bear and lets hope it falls plenty more ( probably will ) yet as it is a gift for long term investing at some point in time :t_up:

[SailorRob]

Might be a timing issue. If I look at he right time at my broken clock it is as well pretty good in telling me the time :p ;

But not trying to pick on this particular animal. We have a number of posters who predicted the current bearmarket for years to come ... and now it arrived. So - are they right now and have been wrong then, or are these just minor timing issues (a' la my broken clock)?

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

"Nobody can predict future stock prices" (Ben Graham)

Anyway - anybody who predicts the future often enough is sometimes right .... its just impossible to predict in advance when they will be right and when they will be wrong ... (BlackPeter)

You haven't met Azz obviously.

[Bobdn]

Wow, my beloved Energy ETFs got monkey-hammered last night. Is the war coming to an end?

[winner69]

Wow, my beloved Energy ETFs got monkey-hammered last night. Is the war coming to an end?

a lot of market chatter about a peace deal in Ukraine .... that be good

[Ggcc]

a lot of market chatter about a peace deal in Ukraine .... that be good
I spoke with a Ukrainian who lives in New Zealand and talks with people home all the time. They believe that Putin was the best thing ever that could have happened there. He mentioned that Finally his family could sleep at night without worrying about getting killed due to
Infighting. He showed me pictures of apartments destroyed by Ukrainians and that Russians were blamed. My kind was blown………

[nztx]

I spoke with a Ukrainian who lives in New Zealand and talks with people home all the time. They believe that Putin was the best thing ever that could have happened there. He mentioned that Finally his family could sleep at night without worrying about getting killed due to
Infighting. He showed me pictures of apartments destroyed by Ukrainians and that Russians were blamed. My kind was blown………


Nevertheless the Russian bully still needs stopping in his tracks from trying to annex anything he sees
and takes a liking to IMO .. Absolutely no excuse for Russia's conduct, atrocities and crossing sovereign lines
into other territories .. or the extent of destruction they are wreaking in Ukraine ..

Hopefully, the effective proxy war now in progress will sufficiently weaken Russia to point where
the Russian people become so widely awake to what their disconnected leadership
have wrought that it doesn't become likely occur again & the masses see that the fruits of their
endeavours since the last reset there have for all intensive purposes been hijacked by the few at
the top for their own goals and greed since the 1990's.

Global economies were already fragile without Russia being catalyst to wholesale turmoil in markets
as is being seen.. following on from the waves of Covid

[Tomtom]

It's interesting to me how indiscriminate selling has been on the NZX. For example banks sold down and we know that bank NIMs will improve as rates rise. That is panic but when that finishes I think there will need to be some rationalisation.

[nztx]

It's interesting to me how indiscriminate selling has been on the NZX. For example banks sold down and we know that bank NIMs will improve as rates rise. That is panic but when that finishes I think there will need to be some rationalisation.


Yes .. both here & OZ .. possibly small retail holders .. the ones in for the long haul may have done the opposite
when the opportunity to do so presented itself..

[Bjauck]

I spoke with a Ukrainian who lives in New Zealand and talks with people home all the time. They believe that Putin was the best thing ever that could have happened there. He mentioned that Finally his family could sleep at night without worrying about getting killed due to
Infighting. He showed me pictures of apartments destroyed by Ukrainians and that Russians were blamed. My kind was blown……… Ukrainian Russians supporting the breakaway Russian states? I guess if people are killed they will know undoubtedly it is because of Putin's war.

[Tomtom]

Yes .. both here & OZ .. possibly small retail holders .. the ones in for the long haul may have done the opposite
when the opportunity to do so presented itself.. Apparently indiscriminate selling is an international phenomenon (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-17/in-prevalence-of-selling-this-is-a-market-rout-without-equal?srnd=premium-asia). Although crypto seems to be a leader in investments being shoved under the bus first.

[bull....]

Bitcoin drops below $17,800 as sell-off accelerates — here’s what happened

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/18/bitcoin-price-drops-below-18600-as-sell-off-accelerates.html

the further this falls the more likely someone big is going to blow up i reckon and lets not forget the selling needed in other assets to cover the losses

[mike2020]

I know people have made great money from bitcoin but I still feel its no different to gambling. If I put a dollar on it I would know it had a chance of never coming back. Would I borrow to buy it? I know you would say I don't understand it blah blah blah but seriously, it's a concept and no more. If it stuffs the world markets then it shows how little we have evolved as a species. What a waste of resources.

[winner69]

Bitcoin drops below $17,800 as sell-off accelerates — here’s what happened

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/18/bitcoin-price-drops-below-18600-as-sell-off-accelerates.html

the further this falls the more likely someone big is going to blow up i reckon and lets not forget the selling needed in other assets to cover the losses

The unfolding drama:

@philbak1
Early this morning one sell order of 653 BTC took 5.9% off Bitcoin’s price in one trade.

$MSTR owns 129,218 Bitcoins. What happens when they are forced to liquidate?

[winner69]

Stories like MicroStrategy’s Saylor actually controls the keys and has disappeared to an island somewhere make it sound like a movie….so what’s left of remaining btc value?



Drama

[ynot]

I know people have made great money from bitcoin but I still feel its no different to gambling. If I put a dollar on it I would know it had a chance of never coming back. Would I borrow to buy it? I know you would say I don't understand it blah blah blah but seriously, it's a concept and no more. If it stuffs the world markets then it shows how little we have evolved as a species. What a waste of resources.

Some suggest the knock on effect may not be that great as small bitcoin holders are not overly leveraged. Nevertheless ....
Actually the big players are probably long gone !

[bull....]

leverage in crypto is used quite a lot , brokers allow retail people to buy crypto on margin with a small deposit , hedge funds do it on margin and the crypto lending market is then on lent to hedge funds as well. which at the end of the day means forced crypto selling means liquidations in other assets to pay the piper

[winner69]

Fed raises rates to grab your attention. From The Onion, always good for a laugh …but true.

WASHINGTON—With inflation at a 40-year high, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate this week in an effort to—hey, come on, pay attention, this is really important! The Consumer Price Index has gone up 8.6% since May of last year, and so the Fed’s hike of three-quarters of a point is aimed at…hello? Wake up! Look, I know it’s not the most exciting thing in the world, but this rate jump is the biggest since 1994. Are you with me still? You’re focused? Promise? Okay, good, because the cost of borrowing money, while still relatively low in historic terms, may continue to—yo! Are you seriously checking your Instagram right now? What the hell? I realize reports from the Fed aren’t as thrillingly paced as a Marvel movie, but this affects the whole ****ing economy! Including you! If you want to buy a car or a home, it’s going to make a huge difference, okay, ****head? Get it together for five goddamn seconds so we can tell you the Fed is struggling to walk a tightrope between potential ’70s-style stagflation and a devastating economic crash. Actually, you know what? Forget it. Do whatever the **** you want. See if we care. Prick.

https://www.theonion.com/fed-raises-interest-rates-in-effort-to-hey-pay-attenti-1849072556

[Azz]

lets not forget the selling needed in other assets to cover the losses

It's cutting both ways: people are selling everything and anything to cover huge losses in the stock market.

[ynot]

leverage in crypto is used quite a lot , brokers allow retail people to buy crypto on margin with a small deposit , hedge funds do it on margin and the crypto lending market is then on lent to hedge funds as well. which at the end of the day means forced crypto selling means liquidations in other assets to pay the piper

Then a risky game to play recently, you would think anyone with half a brain would have been out a week ago at $30,000.

[Azz]

Then a risky game to play recently

I personally would never be in "crypto" for a start - but if people were, then yes you're right. Not Bitcoin tho, that's here to stay. And a short squeeze for Bitcoin will be a thing to marvel, it will go up fast.

[Azz]

Stories like MicroStrategy’s Saylor actually controls the keys and has disappeared to an island somewhere make it sound like a movie….so what’s left of remaining btc value?



Drama

This pretty much sums up the ignorance of Bitcoin I read on here.

[thebusinessman]

I personally would never be in "crypto" for a start - but if people were, then yes you're right. Not Bitcoin tho, that's here to stay. And a short squeeze for Bitcoin will be a thing to marvel, it will go up fast.

It definitely will have a few dead-cat bounces in it, I hope that's what you're planning to trade on... Unfortunately the environment suggests she's now down, down, down for the foreseeable future.

[Azz]

$MSTR owns 129,218 Bitcoins. What happens when they are forced to liquidate?
"When" ...? Great! This is amazing info. Can you let me know the date that it'll happen. Thanks!

[Azz]

It definitely will have a few dead-cat bounces in it, I hope that's what you're planning to trade on... Unfortunately the environment suggests she's now down, down, down for the foreseeable future.

Are you talking about the US stock market?

[Azz]

Are you talking about the US stock market?

What I mean is, people are bashing Bitcoin but they seem to separate it from all the other carnage we're seeing across pretty much everything.

[Baa_Baa]

It definitely will have a few dead-cat bounces in it, I hope that's what you're planning to trade on... Unfortunately the environment suggests she's now down, down, down for the foreseeable future.

ETH down 36% in past 7 days, 80% down from ATH
BTC down 33% in past 7 days, 72% down from ATH

These numbers won't age well.

[Azz]

ETH down 36% in past 7 days, 80% down from ATH
BTC down 33% in past 7 days, 72% down from ATH

These numbers won't age well.

Some US stocks are down worse than that (from ATH) since all this bear started!

[thebusinessman]

Are you talking about the US stock market?

No, but honestly I shouldn't have said anything as I realise I'm just adding fuel to the fire.

You're not going to find many Bitcoin enthusiasts here, so I don't understand why you insist on pushing your views on it. You're building your own wall to hit your own head against and honestly there are better things to spend your time on than that.

Maybe those who aren't enthused by Bitcoin are dead-wrong and you're dead-right, but ask yourself what you're really achieving by spending your time here on it when it's clearly unappreciated. There is a crypto forum here, and there are plenty elsewhere as well.

I say this with the best intentions and I think you argue your points well, I just don't come from the same angle of belief that you clearly do and I fear you're blinded either by your position, losses, or something else. Kia kaha. This will be my last post on the subject.

[Azz]

No, but honestly I shouldn't have said anything as I realise I'm just adding fuel to the fire.

You're not going to find many Bitcoin enthusiasts here, so I don't understand why you insist on pushing your views on it. You're building your own wall to hit your own head against and honestly there are better things to spend your time on than that.

Maybe those who aren't enthused by Bitcoin are dead-wrong and you're dead-right, but ask yourself what you're really achieving by spending your time here on it when it's clearly unappreciated. There is a crypto forum here, and there are plenty elsewhere as well.

I say this with the best intentions and I think you argue your points well, I just don't come from the same angle of belief that you clearly do and I fear you're blinded either by your position, losses, or something else. Kia kaha. This will be my last post on the subject.

"I fear you're blinded either by your position, losses, or something else."

Apart from the general ignorance of Bitcoin I see on here, it's these assumptions that I find hilarious. Someone has a different viewpoint and so therefore they're "blinded by losses... [etc]".

Let's see what happens, shall we, to the price of Bitcoin over the next year or two.

[Azz]

There is a crypto forum here, and there are plenty elsewhere as well.

This thread falls under NZX and contains posts about everything under the sun outside of that (US stock market being one of them).

[dln]

Let's see what happens, shall we, to the price of Bitcoin over the next year or two.

Yes, lets.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/128883196/energyhungry-cryptocurrencies-could-undermine-our-renewable-goals

[Azz]

Yes, lets.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/128883196/energyhungry-cryptocurrencies-could-undermine-our-renewable-goals

What a garbage article! The "value of cryptocurrencies is imaginary" apparently. That's just delusional.

The value is what buyers and sellers say it is via agreed trades, and I think we here on this INVESTMENT website should use this definition instead.

Re power usage, what about the banking sector? That uses a lot of electricity. Every time you buy a cup of coffee with eftpos, for example. Or anything related to banking. What about the trading of stocks? What about cat pics - every time you look at one a datacentre is used. What about anything??

[Azz]

​All this has nothing to do with energy use. It's about attacking Bitcoin, plain and simple.

This is the sequence of events, over the last few years:

1) Bitcoin is criticized for not using enough renewable energy.
2) Bitcoin miners switch to more and more renewable energy.
3) Bitcoin is criticized for using too much renewable energy.

[Old mate]

Go buy some more if you love it so much :t_up:

[Azz]

Go buy some more if you love it so much :t_up:

I have the opposite problem; if you can figure that out.

[BlackPeter]

What a garbage article! The "value of cryptocurrencies is imaginary" apparently. That's just delusional.

The value is what buyers and sellers say it is via agreed trades, and I think we here on this INVESTMENT website should use this definition instead.

Re power usage, what about the banking sector? That uses a lot of electricity. Every time you buy a cup of coffee with eftpos, for example. Or anything related to banking. What about the trading of stocks? What about cat pics - every time you look at one a datacentre is used. What about anything??

Could we please stop littering this thread with discussions about crypto trash? I understand there is a thread for the followers of the crypto religion to lick their wounds and comfort each other. No point in creating still more misery.

[Azz]

Could we please stop littering this thread with discussions about crypto trash? I understand there is a thread for the followers of the crypto religion to lick their wounds and comfort each other. No point in creating still more misery.

That would also mean we don't "litter" it with discussions about anything outside of the NZX (such as US stocks, NZ residential housing, consumer debt, etc) - correct?

[bull....]

What a garbage article! The "value of cryptocurrencies is imaginary" apparently. That's just delusional.

The value is what buyers and sellers say it is via agreed trades, and I think we here on this INVESTMENT website should use this definition instead.

Re power usage, what about the banking sector? That uses a lot of electricity. Every time you buy a cup of coffee with eftpos, for example. Or anything related to banking. What about the trading of stocks? What about cat pics - every time you look at one a datacentre is used. What about anything??

yes your right.
crypto is a market just like carbon credits

[winner69]

Matariki should ensure a pretty settled week on the NZX - and this week is even a short week

It will be a settled week as it's a time to reflect on the past year, remember how lucky we are to be on earth, and plan for the year ahead.

[bull....]

Matariki should ensure a pretty settled week on the NZX - and this week is even a short week

It will be a settled week as it's a time to reflect on the past year, remember how lucky to be on earth, and plan for the year ahead.

its the flavour at the moment tomorrow is juneteenth in the USA so indeed it will be a quiet day

[mike2020]

I have the opposite problem; if you can figure that out.
You have to much and you hate it. You are sounding a little feral, the article really was an eye opener on power use, you should read it. Not a millennial read but a proper one where you visually check all the words.

[Azz]

You have to much and you hate it. You are sounding a little feral, the article really was an eye opener on power use, you should read it. Not a millennial read but a proper one where you visually check all the words.

Thanks for the attack post! Awesome!

I did read the article; and it's nonsense.

Shock! Horror! New invention uses electricity!

What about everything else that uses electricity?

The entire banking industry?
Every other industry?
Dance videos on TikTok?
Cat pics on Facebook?
Online pornography?

And this I wrote in a previous post has actually happened:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the sequence of events, over the last few years:


1) Bitcoin is criticized for not using enough renewable energy.
2) Bitcoin miners switch to more and more renewable energy.
3) Bitcoin is criticized for using too much renewable energy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

[Azz]

You have to much and you hate it.

No that's not it! Good guess, 10 points for trying.

[mike2020]

You do sound a little triggered and righteous. Not an attack i really couldn't care less.

[Azz]

You do sound a little triggered and righteous. Not an attack i really couldn't care less.

"You do sound a little triggered and righteous."

Not at all. When I read an article that is constructed with lies on top of a basis of ignorance, I feel I need to correct the record.

The following is not an attack? Your comments came out of nowhere.

"You are sounding a little feral, the article really was an eye opener on power use, you should read it. Not a millennial read but a proper one where you visually check all the words."

[mike2020]

Well if you actually read the article I think I would have been able to tell. You made a couple of totally contrary statements. Each block chain transaction uses the equivalent to 109 days of domestic power use and you compare that to an eftpos transaction.
Thats a crime against humanity.

[SailorRob]

Has anyone considered the probability that Azz is a parody account?

The only real explanation.

[ynot]

Has anyone considered the probability that Azz is a parody account?

The only real explanation.

Drives a Tesla by chance?

[Muse]

listened to some blues tunes over the weekend. one song, Stormy Monday, summed up last week on the sharemarket pretty well I thought

They call it stormy Monday
but Tuesday's just as bad
Lord, and Wednesday's even worse
and Thursday's all so bad.
The eagle flies on Friday
and Saturday I go out to play
Sunday I go to church
Gunna kneel down and pray
Lord have mercy on me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ekaOfZ1agE

[Azz]

Well if you actually read the article I think I would have been able to tell. You made a couple of totally contrary statements. Each block chain transaction uses the equivalent to 109 days of domestic power use and you compare that to an eftpos transaction.
Thats a crime against humanity.

I did not compare an eftpos transaction to a new block. As with some other posters here you cannot comprehend sentence structures.

And Bitcoin electricity consumption is a "crime against humanity"?

But this electricity consumption is ok, just a few examples:

The entire banking industry?
Every other industry?
Dance videos on TikTok?
Cat pics on Facebook?
Online pornography?

[Azz]

Has anyone considered the probability that Azz is a parody account?

The only real explanation.

Another attack post.

[SailorRob]

I did not compare an eftpos transaction to a new block. As with some other posters here you cannot comprehend sentence structures.

And Bitcoin electricity consumption is a "crime against humanity"?

But this electricity consumption is ok, just a few examples:

The entire banking industry?
Every other industry?
Dance videos on TikTok?
Cat pics on Facebook?
Online pornography?

Well, all the examples you presented actually serve some purpose, however trivial that may be.

The only purpose *hitcoin serves is taking your money.

When a bunch of people like you are on one side of the transaction and a bunch of suits in skyscrapers are on the other who will come out on top?

[winner69]

Is this MSTR on the Nasdaq any good?

[Rawz]

Is this MSTR on the Nasdaq any good?

Owned it in early 2021. Cathie Wood bid the price up 200% in like 2 months. I then watched it fall steadily until i sold for small double digit gain.

Dont invest. Not recommended

[mike2020]

I did not compare an eftpos transaction to a new block. As with some other posters here you cannot comprehend sentence structures.

And Bitcoin electricity consumption is a "crime against humanity"?

But this electricity consumption is ok, just a few examples:

The entire banking industry?
Every other industry?
Dance videos on TikTok?
Cat pics on Facebook?
Online pornography?
Re power usage, what about the banking sector? That uses a lot of electricity. Every time you buy a cup of coffee with eftpos, for example. Or anything related to banking. What about the trading of stocks? What about cat pics - every time you look at one a datacentre is used. What about anything??

Maybe you don't know how to construct a sentence? Sounded like a comparison to me. If an eftpos transaction used the same as 109 days worth of domestic power use I imagine milk would cost more a bottle. If I labelled you that would be an attack. Disagreeing with you isn't.

[Azz]

Re power usage, what about the banking sector? That uses a lot of electricity. Every time you buy a cup of coffee with eftpos, for example. Or anything related to banking. What about the trading of stocks? What about cat pics - every time you look at one a datacentre is used. What about anything??

Maybe you don't know how to construct a sentence? Sounded like a comparison to me. If an eftpos transaction used the same as 109 days worth of domestic power use I imagine milk would cost more a bottle. If I labelled you that would be an attack. Disagreeing with you isn't.

I shouldn't have to explain English meanings and constructions. But use of the word "you" in that context does not mean you personally, and only you, and once only. It means you, everybody, or any person - ie, the amount of all eftpos transactions on an ongoing basis; the usage of electricity by eftpos transactions.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I shouldn't have to explain English meanings and constructions. But use of the word "you" in that context does not mean you personally, and only you, and once only. It means you, everybody, or any person - ie, the amount of all eftpos transactions on an ongoing basis; the usage of electricity by eftpos transactions.

I dont know what point you are trying to make as any way you try to compare the electricity required for an eftpos transaction to that required for a bitcoin transaction shows the absurdity of bitcoin as a suitable replacement for payments. It fails on every measure as a useful form of currency, and it has proven useless as a store of value asset.

[Azz]

Well, all the examples you presented actually serve some purpose, however trivial that may be.

The examples were:

The entire banking industry
Every other industry
Dance videos on TikTok
Cat pics on Facebook
Online pornography

Your quoted comment above betrays your pathological and irrational hate for Bitcoin.

[Azz]

I dont know what point you are trying to make as any way you try to compare the electricity required for an eftpos transaction to that required for a bitcoin transaction shows the absurdity of bitcoin as a suitable replacement for payments. It fails on every measure as a useful form of currency, and it has proven useless as a store of value asset.

That's not what I'm doing at all.

I'm merely pointing out that the "electricity usage" attack on Bitcoin is a nonsense.

[SailorRob]

The examples were:

The entire banking industry
Every other industry
Dance videos on TikTok
Cat pics on Facebook
Online pornography

Your quoted comment above betrays your pathological and irrational hate for Bitcoin.

My hate is unsophisticated Asses getting cleaned out by the ponzi operators. In your case I make an exception. In fact I enjoy watching it.

[Azz]

My hate is unsophisticated Asses getting cleaned out by the ponzi operators. In your case I make an exception. In fact I enjoy watching it.

You don't know what a Ponzi is, do you. Because if you did, you wouldn't be embarrassing yourself by claiming that Bitcoin is one!

[BlackPeter]

I dont know what point you are trying to make as any way you try to compare the electricity required for an eftpos transaction to that required for a bitcoin transaction shows the absurdity of bitcoin as a suitable replacement for payments. It fails on every measure as a useful form of currency, and it has proven useless as a store of value asset.

Don't feed the troll ...

he is clearly neither interested to stick to the rules nor to have a discussion about the NZX.

[Azz]

Don't feed the troll ...

he is clearly neither interested to stick to the rules nor to have a discussion about the NZX.

The "troll" word comes out! I was wondering when that was going to happen. Someone dares to disagree with the "wisdom" of some regulars and also provides evidence to back themself up; that person is then 1) abused, and then 2) "I'm telling the admin on you", and then 3) called a troll. Ah the internet...

[Azz]

I wouldn't say "immune" ... a number of right wing western politicians are working hard to remove accountablility for their crimes (BoJo and Trump spring to mind). They clearly are pushing hard to get us into the same mess in which many eastern countries like Russia, Turkey, North Korea, Sri Lanka and e.g. the Philipines (to name just a small number of kleptocracies) are already drowning. Powerful crooks running their countries without any checks and balances. There are a lot of idiots in the Western world supporting these criminals to get us into the same mess.

What's this got to do with the NZX?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Don't feed the troll ...

he is clearly neither interested to stick to the rules nor to have a discussion about the NZX.

Indeed. I now have him/her on “ignore” list and advise everyone else to do the same.

(For those not aware, the ignore function is accessible by clicking on their user name and selecting “view profile” and once there selecting “add to ignore list”. After doing that you will not see any further posts by them.)

[Azz]

Indeed. I now have him/her on “ignore” list and advise everyone else to do the same.

(For thsoe not aware, the ignore function is accessible by clicking on their user name and selecting “view profile” and once their selecting “add to ignore list”. After doing that you will not see any further posts by them.)

You're a bully.

[bull....]

Don't feed the troll ...

he is clearly neither interested to stick to the rules nor to have a discussion about the NZX.

displaying a tad of not understanding the world there BP , everything is interconnected and can cause a black monday one way or another so maybe it be crypto this time to cause the big blow up?

So in effect it would affect the NZX

heres a list of some crashes and what caused them

https://www.investopedia.com/timeline-of-stock-market-crashes-5217820

as can be seen everyone was nearly caused by something different from cotton to tulips to banks fighting with each other , an insurance collapse etc etc

[bull....]

anyway some of the strong sectors this first half of the yr are showing signs of rolling over and joining the bear

[Bobdn]

For sure, my last line of defense, energy, is falling away.

It's important to stay healthy through thick and thin. I try to eat plenty of green leafy vegetables, oily fish like wild caught salmon and sardines (tinned is fine, John West, King Oscar, whatever), some berries and I especially like eating a cup or two of watermelon. It's seems to perk me up when things are...down. I've read it has some key ingredients for mens health.

Add a good diet of brisk walking and some resistance training, and I feel recession proof.

[Azz]

For sure, my last line of defense, energy, is falling away.

It's important to stay healthy through thick and thin. I try to eat plenty of green leafy vegetables, oily fish like wild caught salmon and sardines (tinned is fine, John West, King Oscar, whatever), some berries and I especially like eating a cup or two of watermelon. It's seems to perk me up when things are...down. I've read it has some key ingredients for mens health.

Add a good diet of brisk walking and some resistance training, and I feel recession proof.

What a nice, comforting post.

[Azz]

anyway some of the strong sectors this first half of the yr are showing signs of rolling over and joining the bear

And there was me saying everything was going to be ok lol.

[Azz]

displaying a tad of not understanding the world there BP , everything is interconnected and can cause a black monday one way or another so maybe it be crypto this time to cause the big blow up?

So in effect it would affect the NZX

heres a list of some crashes and what caused them

https://www.investopedia.com/timeline-of-stock-market-crashes-5217820

as can be seen everyone was nearly caused by something different from cotton to tulips to banks fighting with each other , an insurance collapse etc etc

That'll fly right over his head, guaranteed.

[Ggcc]

Don't feed the troll ...

he is clearly neither interested to stick to the rules nor to have a discussion about the NZX.

It’s quite funny when people “feed the troll”. I’m sorry he has been correct a lot in regards with trading and I’m happy I’m not a trader. If you are an investor you would not bite into this and look into the longterm picture

[Tomtom]

New Zealand itself has been pretty resilient so far it seems. People are grumbling about mortgage repayments increasing but no one really appears to be reaching for the "eject" button yet. Auctions aren't inundated with houses or cars that need to be sold right now. No stampede for the exits or stories about foreclosures. Unemployment is still bumping along at a very healthy 3.2% and job adverts are still rising, the employment market remains tight as a drum.

Rates aside the only business stories otherwise in the news appear to be about ongoing plasterboard shortages. Hardly a panick at this stage (unless you really need plasterboard!)


S&P500 futures are up.

[bull....]

The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index dropped sharply in the June quarter, falling to its lowest level recorded since the survey began in 1988, said Westpac’s acting chief economist Michael Gordon.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129031262/cost-of-living-crunch-household-budgets-squeezed-in-a-way-they-havent-been-for-decades

further cementing the likely recession to hit NZ at some point and quite a number of NZX companies

[Azz]

New Zealand itself has been pretty resilient so far it seems. People are grumbling about mortgage repayments increasing but no one really appears to be reaching for the "eject" button yet. Auctions aren't inundated with houses or cars that need to be sold right now. No stampede for the exits or stories about foreclosures. Unemployment is still bumping along at a very healthy 3.2% and job adverts are still rising, the employment market remains tight as a drum.

Rates aside the only business stories otherwise in the news appear to be about ongoing plasterboard shortages. Hardly a panick at this stage (unless you really need plasterboard!)


S&P500 futures are up.

People in NZ might start flipping houses again!

[Tomtom]

People in NZ might start flipping houses again! Wait until people realise their houses are filled with one of the rarest and most sought after commodities in the country, plasterboard.

[Azz]

Wait until people realise their houses are filled with one of the rarest and most sought after commodities in the country, plasterboard.

Lol !

[Joshuatree]

Wait until people realise their houses are filled with one of the rarest and most sought after commodities in the country, plasterboard.

Yeah ,now just gotta find a way to remove the gib and sell it in "mint" find ehh.

[Bobdn]

@Bull, just in reference to your comment about interconnected markets, Tom Keene, and I may not have this completely right, has just said on Bloomberg TV that research has shown that recent volatility in Bitcoin has accounted for around 15 per cent of volatility in the S&P500. Interesting!

[bull....]

@Bull, just in reference to your comment about interconnected markets, Tom Keene, and I may not have this completely right, has just said on Bloomberg TV that research has shown that recent volatility in Bitcoin has accounted for around 15 per cent of volatility in the S&P500. Interesting!

yep some people who lose on crypto have to cover the losses from other assets. be interesting to know what effect margin on stocks has had too

[bull....]

Dow jumps 700 points as market’s comeback rally gains steam with an hour to the close
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/20/stock-market-news-futures-open-to-close.html

up week ahead. after so many down weeks in a row ?

[Peitro]

Stop being so Bull...ish, it is scary :)

[Azz]

up week ahead. after so many down weeks in a row ?

The week ahead could be like your average game of football: 1-1.

[bull....]

The week ahead could be like your average game of football: 1-1.

bear bounce from oversold conditions

[Azz]

bear bounce from oversold conditions

"Oversold", absolutely. But "bear bounce" might instead turn into proper rally. The markets are generally forward looking - and what if everything that's set to happen is already priced in?

[Azz]

Gonna be an interesting week !

[Balance]

Bear trap or start of a resurgence?

Place your bets and be prepared to be excited!

[Azz]

Bear trap or start of a resurgence?

Place your bets and be prepared to be excited!

Lol !

[Azz]

I'm as excited as a turkey before Christmas! Wait a sec, I might have that wrong...?!

[bull....]

"Oversold", absolutely. But "bear bounce" might instead turn into proper rally. The markets are generally forward looking - and what if everything that's set to happen is already priced in?

analyst's in the USA are still expecting growth next yr in there forecasts so the E is not factored in at all to current market pricing i reckon. So a earnings recession is still to play out.
guess thats why bear markets last on average 1 - 2 yrs

[Bobdn]

Crushing 🐻🐨 markets are much less stressful than raging bull markets. When you are firmly in the grip of a bear, there's nothing else to do but take your lumps. Hopefully one has a little bit of cash to get through the next year and there's no need to cash in any funds. Dividends are getting reinvested in a down market.

In a raging bull, there's always that nagging doubt that you're staying at the party too long.

Party is over!

[Tomtom]

Commodities stabilised somewhat after March which will drag CPI back in many developed economies. I think the bet is that once Reserve Banks see inflation start to come down they'll just hold rates steady.

My view is still that long run rates will need to be higher. There have been three great forces that have played out in the employment market within my lifetime:
1. Women entering the workforce. That has actually likely finished, women are now substantially are employed at similar rates to men (https://www.oecd.org/gender/data/labour-force-participation-by-sex-age.htm).
2. Post-war generation was substantially larger than subsequent generations, that gave economies a huge number of workers. However that generation are in their late 50's or older now, that means more people will retire than enter workforces (https://data.oecd.org/chart/6KQi).
3. The industrialisation of China. China had always been an advanced society prior to the Opium Wars, that allowed them to rapidly industrialise and lift their burgeoning workforce out of poverty. However now that boom is over because their workforce is also declining (rapidly!) (https://data.oecd.org/chart/6KQj), China has one of the most acute demographic problems of any country. There doesn't appear to be another China to me, development in most countries is far slower.

All that means is that labour is going to be very scarce which will drive up wages. Higher wages means more Inflationary pressure that needs to be suppressed.

[ynot]

Commodities stabilised somewhat after March which will drag CPI back in many developed economies. I think the bet is that once Reserve Banks see inflation start to come down they'll just hold rates steady.

My view is still that long run rates will need to be higher. There have been three great forces that have played out in the employment market within my lifetime:
1. Women entering the workforce. That has actually likely finished, women are now substantially are employed at similar rates to men (https://www.oecd.org/gender/data/labour-force-participation-by-sex-age.htm).
2. Post-war generation was substantially larger than subsequent generations, that gave economies a huge number of workers. However that generation are in their late 50's or older now, that means more people will retire than enter workforces (https://data.oecd.org/chart/6KQi).
3. The industrialisation of China. China had always been an advanced society prior to the Opium Wars, that allowed them to rapidly industrialise and lift their burgeoning workforce out of poverty. However now that boom is over because their workforce is also declining (rapidly!) (https://data.oecd.org/chart/6KQj), China has one of the most acute demographic problems of any country. There doesn't appear to be another China to me, development in most countries is far slower.

All that means is that labour is going to be very scarce which will drive up wages. Higher wages means more Inflationary pressure that needs to be suppressed.
Interesting chart. I notice some other nations are showing an increase on the chart, India ?
Japan not looking good in that dept.

[davflaws]

All that means is that labour is going to be very scarce which will drive up wages. Higher wages means more Inflationary pressure that needs to be suppressed.

Hard to argue with, but I did read that a labour shortage hastens the widespread adoption of the technological advances available (and there are currently plenty of robotic technologies in that category) and gives huge impetus to wealth creation.

[Tomtom]

Interesting chart. I notice some other nations are showing an increase on the chart, India ?
Japan not looking good in that dept. Yeah, those charts only cover the OECD. Population growth in the undeveloped world is far higher but non look to be on the rapid industrialisation path China has been (except perhaps for Rwanda but the population is only 13m.) China was just really unusual, one suspects because it was an advanced society.

[Tomtom]

Hard to argue with, but I did read that a labour shortage hastens the widespread adoption of the technological advances available (and there are currently plenty of robotic technologies in that category) and gives huge impetus to wealth creation. I hope that happens but labour productivity has substantially plateaued in many in many OECD countries so there is little sign now that IT will have the same impact that the printing press, machine tools, electrification etc.

I'm a true believer in technology improving human wellbeing however. There will be future technological revolutions that do have a profound impact on improving material quality of life. Human intellect really is the well that never runs dry. It's just that we don't appear to be in such a revolution right now.

[Bjauck]

Cost of living crisis as reported in Stuff. I shed a tear over the Tauranga student studying Economics at Ivy League uni Harvard, who now has to pay $8 for his covid era Auckland Airport coffee instead $4. Will he be able tp afford his Harvard fees?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/300622881/weeds-snails-roadkill-and-a-bum-gun-instead-of-toilet-paper-the-lengths-kiwis-are-going-to-save-money

[bull....]

Don’t get ‘sucked back in’: Fund manager says investors should learn from past bear markets


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/fund-manager-investors-should-learn-from-past-bear-markets.html

i was mentioning a while back on the thread about hedge funds and the borrowing they do against crypto



One of the most prominent crypto hedge funds just defaulted on a $670 million loan


But the Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/126d8b02-f06a-4fd9-a57b-9f4ceab3de71) reported after the tweet that U.S.-based crypto lenders BlockFi and Genesis liquidated some of 3AC’s positions, citing people familiar with the matter. 3AC had borrowed from BlockFi but was unable to meet the margin call.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/three-arrows-capital-crypto-hedge-fund-defaults-on-voyager-loan.html

So when they get margin called they have to sell other assets

[winner69]

Don’t get ‘sucked back in’: Fund manager says investors should learn from past bear markets


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/fund-manager-investors-should-learn-from-past-bear-markets.html
was mentioning a while back on the thread about hedge funds and the borrowing they do against crypto

]


Markets can be very seductive eh bull ……tempting keen punters to make a foertune

Mr P said ‘the market giveth, but the market also taketh away’

[percy]

Markets can be very seductive eh bull ……tempting keen punters to make a foertune

Mr P said ‘the market giveth, but the market also taketh away’

True but always remember the great investors' quote;
“time in the market beats timing the market.”

[winner69]

Hey bull ….. if ^SPX doesn’t get back to 4200 (previous high in this downtrend) on this rebound it’ll head back below 3650 (previous low). …round numbers

Is that how you see it

[bull....]

Markets can be very seductive eh bull ……tempting keen punters to make a foertune

Mr P said ‘the market giveth, but the market also taketh away’

yep

here's a prime example of the buy the dip mentality is still alive and kicking. sort of reinforcing my view of the bear is still alive and kicking.

According to a report by Bloomberg on Monday, Cathie Wood's ARK flagship fund, which is down significantly in 2022 fueled by Fed rate hikes, has gained its longest streak of inflows in more than a year.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/cathie-woods-ark-gains-significant-recent-inflows-despite-disastrous-year--report-432SI-2841388

At the bottom isnt there no interest ?

[winner69]

True but always remember the great investors' quote;
“time in the market beats timing the market.”


And that book JUST KEEP BUYING is still selling like hot cakes

[bull....]

Hey bull ….. if ^SPX doesn’t get back to 4200 (previous high in this downtrend) on this rebound it’ll head back below 3650 (previous low). …round numbers

Is that how you see it

im in the camp of 2900 - 3000 if you factor in earnings downgrades to come due to inflation and slowing growth. but anything could change in between

[alokdhir]

im in the camp of 2900 - 3000 if you factor in earnings downgrades to come due to inflation and slowing growth. but anything could change in between

My base case is 3100 ...If this bounce fails around 4250 ....Can have A-B-C kind of bounce around 4250 levels

Still smart money will keep churning into recession friendly stocks ....Healthcare , Staples and Utilities etc

[winner69]

Dr Copper not looking too flash at the moment

Generally one of the best lead indicators of impending economic slowdown and shrinking company profits.

[Hoop]

Mr Copper not looking too flash at the moment

Generally one of the best lead indicators of impending economic slowdown and shrinking company profits..

Below is many reference back to 2008 the last "normal" type of Bear Market animal 2022 bear is a similar animal. In hindsight the Covid bear was a different animal.

Winner..I've been waiting for someone to mention Dr Copper and as we mentioned the Doctor a lot back during the 2008-2009 on the Investing strategies and secular bear market thread (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets) I had a feeling you would be the first one to bring this to the surface again..:)

For those that haven't read the thread and the part about copper playing its role in the cyclical bear market cycle, this is a very quick simple outline of how it works..
1..Copper and the share market correlate poorly except for late phase 3 of the bear market cycle. (delayed correlation)
2..Copper (as do other commodities) lag (see post #152 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page16)) the top of the economic cycle and the sharemarket during phase 1 Bear Market cycle (most of 2021)***..Often not not always (because commodities more associated with the economic cycle) Metals skyrocket during late stage phase 3 Bull and phase 1 Bear ..Remember together the Share market and economy are poor correlatives.

So where does Dr Copper fit into the Share Market scheme of things?..As the metal is used in production of many goods it commands a high price (inflates) when demand of goods outstrips supply and supply ramps up..Central banks tighten the money supply to lessen demand (share market reacts quickly) but it takes a while for the supply to catch up to match demand hence the commodities (and copper) inflating price lag. However it is at the other end of the share market cycle (last phase Bear market) when doom and gloom masks the emerging "new green shoots" in primary material production Dr Copper's rising prices off its nadir informs the world that the worst is over and the near future is looking more rosy (opposite view to the media) , hence seen as the first leading indicator...before the other leading indicator (Equities market) reverses to Bull. The sharemarket cyclic reversal occurs about 66% through a recession (if there is one) hence a leading indicator.
So when Dr Copper's price bottoms out and recovers the share market will follow with a cycle reversal up to 6 weeks later..How often has Dr Copper been right?...100% !!!.

When does the Bear die and it's safer to enter back into the stock market ? When the ducks line up in a row (post #141 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page15)) ..Dr Copper is my favourite duck, so my greater emphasis goes to the ducks with the best forecasting success...Also post #135 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page14)

An oldie but a goodie as it has weathered the test of time...a must read book at the moment has to be "Anatomy of the Bear" by Russell Napier (see post #133 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page14)).

If you want to read the book for free go to Open Library (https://openlibrary.org/) sign up for free, accept the verification email, return to the site and log in, once logged in type in the book you want to borrow..







***Yes I can hear you say Bear market back in 2021 !!!!!..As I have written in this forum often, it is nearly impossible to distinguish the difference between late stage phase 3 Bull market and phase 1 bear market..The only way to distinguish it is well after the fact when the bear is in full control, then you can see in hindsight on the chart when the Bear Market Cycle started with its secondary reactions which fail to create a new high which was during 2021..not when it officially started recently (investors lost a lot of paper capital by this stage)

[bull....]

see the nz50 retraced nicely last few days to the break-down point of that previous trading range and has respected it by todays decline. normally bearish behaviour to follow

[winner69]

Very good post Hoops .... and good links to what has happened in the past

Love this bit So when Dr Copper's price bottoms out and recovers the share market will follow with a cycle reversal up to 6 weeks later..How often has Dr Copper been right?...100% !!!.

Jeez --- 100%

Thanks Hoop for your insights

[alokdhir]

Politicians and Economists have started the discussion about the prospects of too high rates which will not only kill the economy as well as the jobs market but also bring tremendous strain to community life in big cities ...when people are under stress they do silly things more easily ...Auckland has a crazy petty criminal life already ...no one is feeling safe ...

But as Guru Mark Lister opined that high rates to cause job losses is a must to control inflation .

Million dollar question is Is there Political Will to take " Tough Options " in this over sensitive atmosphere ...when all are already fully stressed trying to cope with never ending pandemic troubles further complicated by very ill timed and cruel war .

We maybe at cusp of something big ...but like always ...it will be finally fine as thats how it has been always after past big troubles .

Markets hate uncertainty ....sooner it knows whats ahead quickly it will adjust prices of effected stocks and move on with its business

[workingdad]

This is where I see issues for our economy in the future, it’s not the first time I’ve raised this but it seems every week there’s stories like this as our best and brightest head to Australia or farther afield.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/129114778/why-im-joining-the-postcovid-brain-drain-from-new-zealand

[bull....]

This is where I see issues for our economy in the future, it’s not the first time I’ve raised this but it seems every week there’s stories like this as our best and brightest head to Australia or farther afield.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/129114778/why-im-joining-the-postcovid-brain-drain-from-new-zealand

if the govt invested some serious money into growing companies in NZ instead of just relying on dairy might help in the future retain more young people. lets get real how many people want to milk cows all day ?

[alokdhir]

Short term movements of 10 year Bond is suggesting zig zag down ...lower tops and lower lows pattern ...hopefully 4.284 % yield recorded early June was the top of this cycle ...only time will confirm either way as its too early days to make that call .

If that turns out to be true then major irritant of the markets topped ...it will then become a known beast which market can price in soon and try to move on

Next month USA Inflation read will be the catalyst imo ....Bull will know the date its revealed

[winner69]

ANZ Business Survey

nothing looks good .... net 9% expecting lower activity ahead... and when asked about own profitability it comes up as 'expected profitability is dire.'

for those who don't believe this there is a school of though that participants 'game' the system by being gloomy in the hope that corporate welfare will come their way


https://watermarker.singletrack.io/ANZ_NZ_Business_Outlook_on_the_skids.pdf?data=DhZA W5pNirsgovBdALYwomrNyXdpUKxDB7RxefLNZ79DdE3Iwkjikh Co7OhrEBsP6Uagmgj6B6pPDNlZhuh3q7PVWhJKgz1G4y3Pa2gt vjJmZXe1ybJXF8omQ%2F%2FM7zjwHyPlR%2B6bbE0q6n19105T IpLNmBvw7C7T3UVCfKe%2BbA%2FQKXuyFpt10NsihBxAJ3fWtp bQd%2Bj0Z1eu%2BS3Rj4dJAqTECw070vaP3XKIr0YXNr2bEmBl b2Dy9xiEuaCDmrYE2rsrx9BHGPPiJSNoTgz%2FqLI0zpZotOYd T95JOoUVysp3K2WReW5wnxrpFJPva22pQkEl8FdCaBGfx7Svra Ned3pUHPZdP184AhXPMVQjgrq4tcs5TE%2B1RF6mtJh3NHLfSP thu4mUDR%2BFr4zxXacU0IZ%2Fk%2FhkPL0DqlXzwjJeu1vn3B dZ%2FW3PUMWZqBDZxLe3%2BhSzm6QNzVv7l0sZaSezTwqNDYf4 jJk49bDQ0bNSbYf33zbJ63vsA%2BlR51PWPzKbktawMbSyn419 oUuKfVZYBhBvY9O7HojYPYcYGKVEK4tOS9H7ZdUpucUaqvPPzW xV4h3bb%2FcblhaWwoyk3ze5ZRcfI3VtwCj9C97aAon8HwJ3iM PcSykaLHZuzcN4UBxu3UeJTCI4Nz25HYraG3aAb5whyCssjt36 NSwY4otoxPaxVNXOj7PIKeqgTB%2BAhKfkqEmoruHbZ0iRDQmb GTbZGdvS%2Fj5SGugAInoiDmXd7XIlbnmybiXXQli3wi%2BJB1 6IA9IXJjaRxGDFg4f6kP6mqoz8wVT74czpAMHCqhVNYeoS7YRo TWst7CmmwFbOQBSehPnWg2b%2BJoFF0YlqCh7k3A%3D%3D&s3Url=https%3A%2F%2Fanz-singletrack.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com%2FANZ_NZ_Business_Outlook_on_the_s kids.pdf%3FX-Amz-Signature%3Db880bad3d6af45e32b8c04de00097ffe2c18b5 2ad5a74a9a5d7cc8b00a23c3dd%26X-Amz-Algorithm%3DAWS4-HMAC-SHA256%26X-Amz-Credential%3DAKIAZGZPZQBPX2SV22UN%252F20220630%252 Fap-southeast-2%252Fs3%252Faws4_request%26X-Amz-Date%3D20220630T000000Z%26X-Amz-Expires%3D86400%26X-Amz-SignedHeaders%3Dhost

[bull....]

nice dump on the close for the nz sharemarket. must have been a few funds wanting out at close

[Azz]

Bears are winning the week, 1-nil.

[Azz]

US futures looking a little rough.

[bull....]

US futures looking a little rough.

the second half may be worse than the first half ?

[alokdhir]

the second half may be worse than the first half ?


US 10 year down below 3 ...its pricing in recession I reckon ...as per Hoop stocks can handle recession better then inflation and rates ...so I wont be very pessimistic now ...economy is showing signs of slowing down fast ie responding to rates thus inflation will be tamed sooner then thought .

[bull....]

US 10 year down below 3 ...its pricing in recession I reckon ...as per Hoop stocks can handle recession better then inflation and rates ...so I wont be very pessimistic now ...economy is showing signs of slowing down fast ie responding to rates thus inflation will be tamed sooner then thought .

bet a lot of people will yell loud inflation is tamed :t_up: as soon as it falls a little in the headlines lol

[Waltzing]

when an investor like brain kelly starts talking about buying some gold you know the BCOIN man is even confused...

they are talking another 12 month of market moving mainly to the down side.

Who knows there is nothing on the horizon that say trade is going to boom any time soon?

what the baltic dry up to and does it even tell us anything any more?

https://www.balticexchange.com/en/data-services/market-information0/dry-services.html

[bull....]

yep brian saying dont buy anything this yr

US dollars ? a good spot it has been this yr to park funds while we wait .... should hold up i hope as it needs to be strong

[Waltzing]

DIV's flat for 2022 Bull....

banks profit margins not likely to recover any farther and as we see they have been beaten down badly last 2 months in AUS.

[bull....]

banks probably beaten down more to do with concerns there bad debts will go thru the roof

[Azz]

the second half may be worse than the first half ?

It's a game of two halves!

[Azz]

It's a game of two halves!

Bears 2 - Optimists Nil. 20 minutes left.

[alokdhir]

NZ 10 Years Bond Yields big down today ...Top 4.284 ...now 3.737 ...Valuations based on DCF method should improve .

Value of dividend stocks should improve ...

W69 ...Now whats your bond related SP of GNE coming to ? ...Shud be back over 2.50 or so ?

[Azz]

Bears 2 - Optimists Nil. 20 minutes left.

Optimist penalty awarded: Bitcoin holding the line.

[winner69]

NZ 10 Years Bond Yields big down today ...Top 4.284 ...now 3.737 ...Valuations based on DCF method should improve .

Value of dividend stocks should improve ...

W69 ...Now whats your bond related SP of GNE coming to ? ...Shud be back over 2.50 or so ?

No, still way south of 2.50

But the 40% of factors not covered by the correlation are in play now ....like keen excited punters who think this super duper yield is the bees knees and are willing not to get 'rewarded' for 'risk' involved

[alokdhir]

No, still way south of 2.50

But the 40% of factors not covered by the correlation are in play now ....like keen excited punters who think this super duper yield is the bees knees and are willing not to get 'rewarded' for 'risk' involved

Maybe many happy with this level of yield and they keenly grabbing it while its on offer ...after all we all know it wont last forever .

I am not too sure it will retest 2.40 again unless in panic situation but u never say never in this modern world

[winner69]

Maybe many happy with this level of yield and they keenly grabbing it while its on offer ...after all we all know it wont last forever .

I am not too sure it will retest 2.40 again unless in panic situation but u never say never in this modern world

Obviously all the talk by economic commentators about the OCR going to 3.5%/4.0% is a load of crap then ..... not worth wasting the time reading them eh

Good the bad times are all over

[alokdhir]

Obviously all the talk by economic commentators about the OCR going to 3.5%/4.0% is a load of crap then ..... not worth wasting the time reading them eh

Good the bad times are all over

10 year did price in OCR at 4% ...but now its saying maybe rates working pretty well to slow things down ...all know recession is the first stop or battle of this war against Inflation ...market is sensing recession at least the bond market

I am not sure bad times over ...I am just thinking Armageddon rates of 5% or more fears receding

13th July RBNZ views will be very market sensitive ...maybe they will hold this time

13th July USA CPI data will be watched keenly too

[Azz]

I am not sure bad times over ...I am just thinking Armageddon rates of 5% or more fears receding

Armageddon rates in my view are a bit higher than that - but your point still stands: this all could be done without them. Mega recession might be averted, at least in the short term.

[alokdhir]

Armageddon rates in my view are a bit higher than that - but your point still stands: this all could be done without them. Mega recession might be averted, at least in the short term.

I was referring to OCR 5% so thats pretty steep these days ...lol

[Azz]

I was referring to OCR 5% so thats pretty steep these days ...lol

Yes true, that sets the floor.