Black Monday

[winner69]

Good stuff!

Crash coming and the sharper, faster & deeper, the better!

Let’s do this!

Thought the Morgan man was optimistic when he predicted a fall to 4400 this year

Jeez it’s below 4000 already

Some say ‘fair value’ based on sensible valuations etc is about 2800

[Balance]

Thought the Morgan man was optimistic when he predicted a fall to 4400 this year

Jeez it’s below 4000 already

Some say ‘fair value’ based on sensible valuations etc is about 2800

Tend to agree with that fair value.

Need to blow all that froth and BS off the market so we can look forward to buying some cheap stocks and double our money in the next 12 months like in 2020.

Let’s do this!

[alokdhir]

Thought the Morgan man was optimistic when he predicted a fall to 4400 this year

Jeez it’s below 4000 already

Some say ‘fair value’ based on sensible valuations etc is about 2800


I heard most bearish target as 3100 ....but u know even better ...But need muddle here for a while to go to 3100 ...Big players need do distribution first :D

[couta1]

Good stuff!

Crash coming and the sharper, faster & deeper, the better!

Let’s do this! You and bull sound like brothers, surely not? You both enjoy other people's misery.

[alokdhir]

You and bull sound like brothers, surely not? You both enjoy other people's misery.

Balance is only looking for " Double money in 12 months " possibilities ...ie way oversold below fair value stocks ...happens only as distress sales !!

So thats the kind of opportunities he looking for ...lol

[bull....]

balance is a trader going of the calls at covod lows and now the bring on the crash calls lol
probably not even holding those hlg for $10 anymore like was crowed about lol

[bull....]

You and bull sound like brothers, surely not? You both enjoy other people's misery.

both traders obviously nothing to do with other people misery

[bull....]

anyway the nz budget might save the day :p

[Balance]

You and bull sound like brothers, surely not? You both enjoy other people's misery.

Nobody has to sell quality stocks just as nobody has to buy junk stocks.

That’s as simple as it gets when it comes to markets going up and markets going down.

It is what it is - so if a crash is coming, sharp, fast & deep is good rather than a long dragged out market decline. And imo, a crash is in order just like in 2020.

[Waltzing]

Doubt it our markets are hit by what happens in western markets.

Government spending never does much its usually non productive spending unless it infrastructure .... and then it full of politics.

Recent projects have been huge sources of just throw hundreds of millions at what in some cases?

How did the cycle way bridge cost that much without any concrete...

[Balance]

both traders obviously nothing to do with other people misery

Keep your trading description to yourself.

I buy and hold quality stocks with upside potential & market resilience. It is all about how one positions one’s investment portfolio.

Go back to 2020 and see who urged calm and perspective while the market crashed.

And who was running from pillar to post with little coherence to their postings.

[alokdhir]

anyway the nz budget might save the day :p

For me it maybe the negative ...It may fuel further Inflation fears ...also keep in mind at present markets paying more attention to negatives ...so increased Govt spending will be seen as inflationary ...so higher rates thus lower valuations ...:p

[Entrep]

https://i.imgflip.com/68uj0n.gif

[BlackPeter]

Skipping meals and shrinking portions — Brits are being warned of ‘apocalyptic’ food price rises
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/skipping-meals-brits-are-being-warned-of-apocalyptic-food-price-rises.html

not just the uk skipping meals now. many people many countries doing the same. wait till next yr :scared:

I never thought you might be able to post something positive, but hey - this is great! Sounds like this might be the way to curb our obesity epidemic! Slimmer and healthier people - less pressure on our health system ... less cancer, less diabetes, lower need for hip replacements .... we might look forward to paradisic times :t_up:

[Balance]

https://i.imgflip.com/68uj0n.gif

Markets do not go down forever just as they do not go up forever - without corrections.

The wild card is the multitude of Robinhood & Sharesies like investors who are having their first real taste of a bear market - will they hold or will they fold?

The big boys have been very good at harassing their exuberance to steer stocks and markets in the direction which best suits them - so watch carefully.

[alokdhir]

I never thought you might be able to post something positive, but hey - this is great! Sounds like this might be the way to curb our obesity epidemic! Slimmer and healthier people - less pressure on our health system ... less cancer, less diabetes, lower need for hip replacements .... we might look forward to paradisic times :t_up:

Knowing Bull and his bearish mindset ...maybe he posted this to encourage people to sell FPH ...less food leads to healthier people leads to less FPH products usage maybe his thoughts here ...lol :p

[bull....]

Knowing Bull and his bearish mindset ...maybe he posted this to encourage people to sell FPH ...less food leads to healthier people leads to less FPH products usage maybe his thoughts here ...lol :p

my mindset is just a reflection of the market

[Balance]

Knowing Bull and his bearish mindset ...maybe he posted this to encourage people to sell FPH ...less food leads to healthier people leads to less FPH products usage maybe his thoughts here ...lol :p

Good one! :t_up:

[bull....]

anyway if you want to hear some real bull.... grant is speaking later today

[winner69]

No signs of widespread panic selling on NZX today .... only one or two nervous nelies

[alokdhir]

my mindset is just a reflection of the market

And u have been right so far ...no doubts about it mate :t_up:

[Swala]

Things might change when Aussie opens.


No signs of widespread panic selling on NZX today .... only one or two nervous nelies

[couta1]

my mindset is just a reflection of the market Well I hope not cause the market is Schizophrenic.:eek2:

[percy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHZvBbNRSgU

[winner69]

Sales of the book JUST KEEP BUYING still booming they say

[Ricky-bobby]

Double dip on the cards tonight in the US?..

[alokdhir]

Sales of the book JUST KEEP BUYING still booming they say

U need to change your name to something starting with B ...maybe Buddy69 ...lol:p

[Oberon]

Markets do not go down forever just as they do not go up forever - without corrections.

The wild card is the multitude of Robinhood & Sharesies like investors who are having their first real taste of a bear market - will they hold or will they fold?

The big boys have been very good at harassing their exuberance to steer stocks and markets in the direction which best suits them - so watch carefully.

I think for many they're starting to see the "buy the dip", followed by "buy the dip of the dippity dip" is still resulting in LINE GO DOWN. Diamond hand memes might be soothing during bull market corrections. In a bear market? I think retail capitulate (a good portion at least) near the bottom. The shake out will leave a big pile of risk-adverse former investors much as the late 80's did in NZ*.

*My father and his siblings stayed well clear after his sister got hammered in '87; Dad never went beyond a mutual fund after that.

[Tomtom]

Thought the Morgan man was optimistic when he predicted a fall to 4400 this year

Jeez it’s below 4000 already

Some say ‘fair value’ based on sensible valuations etc is about 2800 If the S&P 500 regressed to trend, it would be at the 1752 level. All that said other major markets are nowhere near as overvalued as the US has gotten.

Also there is no reason this needs to be a protracted or deep recession associated with a market reset.

[winner69]

Good news Robertson expects inflation to peak at 6.3% later this year (2022)

[bull....]

The Treasury downgrades forecast for economic growth

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128682478/budget-2022-the-treasury-downgrades-forecast-for-economic-growth

the downgrades start

[dobby41]

The Treasury downgrades forecast for economic growth

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128682478/budget-2022-the-treasury-downgrades-forecast-for-economic-growth

the downgrades start

People didn't used to trust Treasury forecasts - why start now?

[bull....]

anyway the nz budget might save the day :p

looks like the budget saved the day lol nzx only down .46%

[Panda-NZ-]

People didn't used to trust Treasury forecasts - why start now?

Having a gander into this month's horoscope might be more informative.

[SailorRob]

SPX down more than 4% ….that’s a bad day ….even worse than being 3% down

Suppose NZX will be down today

I thought that was a good day?

Don't we want to secure future cash flows for cheaper prices? Reinvest dividends at far more attractive rates?

Everything is arse about face.

Even if I have no cash to invest... A massive decline will make me phenomenally wealthy as long as it doesn't recover quickly.

[nztx]

looks like the budget saved the day lol nzx only down .46%


still a sea of red though .. will US markets add or subtract overnight ? :)

Let's face it - things domestically don't look too outstandingly glossy ahead :)

I'll let someone else delve into the depths of a range of R words ;)

[nztx]

Having a gander into this month's horoscope might be more informative.

Perhaps best not your own - but advisers may need to decipher & interpret the one for Robbo :)

You know - the ones that charge Govt at least 250 K for even entering the front door :)

[JBmurc]

Strange day ... started off down 60-70k ...now getting to the end of the day up 3k WTF? biggest fall in the DOW for last 2yrs >>

[nztx]

Strange day ... started off down 60-70k ...now getting to the end of the day up 3k WTF? biggest fall in the DOW for last 2yrs >>

yes something similar here .. NZX pulling things down

[Baa_Baa]

The Futures market is supposed to be telling the future right?

Zooming out to a monthly chart of the Nasdaq futures (https://invst.ly/y63kx) there have only been two previous second month closes below the 24 month EMA since the dot-bomb bust. GFC was the other one. Decide for yourself whether the tech index currently is a bomb or a GFC or something else.

I suspect many here haven't experienced a serious rout or how long it takes to recover.

Look how long it took to recover from the highs. The Dot-Bomb took about 16 years to recover to it's 'futures' price. The GFC was in the middle of that, it stole 3 years of that Dot-Bomb recovery.

Look also that this is only the third time in twenty+ years that Naz futures are forecasting a second month lower close below the 24 month EMA. And it's only just starting.

There's a hard lesson coming.

[SailorRob]

Easy money for you to make going short then.

[Tomtom]

S&P500 futures down slightly.

[bull....]

just as we thought , just a bounce of support yesterday. looks like the support is breaking down now . to be confirmed next week. targets around or just below 3800 the charts say for this move

getting close to our initial target of 3800 or there abouts. of course i still think its going even lower but that was just an initial move from the highs.
even lower :scared: yea still hasnt even priced in the slowdown enough in earnings to come , pe ratio's etc are still high just based on this as well as other metrics


Stocks fell into a bear market on Friday with the S&P 500 now off 20% from its record
“Stocks are still liberally priced and the psychology that drove them upward for a decade has turned negative,” wrote George Ball, chairman at investment firm Sanders Morris Harris. “The average bear market lasts a year (338 days, more precisely). This downturn has run for only one-third of that, so it probably has more downside room to run, albeit punctuated by interim rallies.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

[alokdhir]

getting close to our initial target of 3800 or there abouts. of course i still think its going even lower but that was just an initial move from the highs.
even lower :scared: yea still hasnt even priced in the slowdown enough in earnings to come , pe ratio's etc are still high just based on this as well as other metrics


Stocks fell into a bear market on Friday with the S&P 500 now off 20% from its record


“Stocks are still liberally priced and the psychology that drove them upward for a decade has turned negative,” wrote George Ball, chairman at investment firm Sanders Morris Harris. “The average bear market lasts a year (338 days, more precisely). This downturn has run for only one-third of that, so it probably has more downside room to run, albeit punctuated by interim rallies.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html


Now rally time ...change your tune for some time ...it needs to rally to go lower if it ever does that ....Enjoy the rally to 4450

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-stock-market-crash-has-only-just-begun-and-it-will-hurt/LRPP3VPY5ECPBZC7TI5HU2Z3RM/

[Tomtom]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-stock-market-crash-has-only-just-begun-and-it-will-hurt/LRPP3VPY5ECPBZC7TI5HU2Z3RM/ Interesting view. It may be true that the US has used a low rates environment to bid up equity markets but I wouldn't say that, for example, the UK is any safer. It's just that in the UK people preferred to bid up housing. If countries allowed an asset bubble to develop investors are likely to take a kicking sooner or later, it won't particularly matter what that asset bubble is in.

I'm less pessimistic about OECD governments being able to protect their populations from rising consumer costs however. There are a lot of EM countries out there that have been subsidising food commodities and hydrocarbons using debt. They are running out of financing options however. Once they go belly-up pressure will start to be relieved on commodities.

[fish]

Now rally time ...change your tune for some time ...it needs to rally to go lower if it ever does that ....Enjoy the rally to 4450

Yes.
I have just cancelled a sell order !

[Muse]

Kiwibank reckon mortgages of 6.0 to 7.5% in 12 months. Imagine those lucky souls who locked in 3.1% 5 year mortgages last year

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/116051/kiwibank-economists-see-mortgage-rates-ranging-high-75-even-though-they

[stoploss]

Kiwibank reckon mortgages of 6.0 to 7.5% in 12 months. Imagine those lucky souls who locked in 3.1% 5 year mortgages last year

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/116051/kiwibank-economists-see-mortgage-rates-ranging-high-75-even-though-they
2.99 % was around for quite a while

[bull....]

Reserve bank meeting this week to confirm another half point increase in OCR.

NZX equities be under more pressure as TINA is dead

[JBmurc]

Kiwibank reckon mortgages of 6.0 to 7.5% in 12 months. Imagine those lucky souls who locked in 3.1% 5 year mortgages last year

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/116051/kiwibank-economists-see-mortgage-rates-ranging-high-75-even-though-they

7.5% rates will break many households in NZ and investors ..yes hindsight I should have locked in 5yrs 2.99% but stupidly I listened to central bankers talking up low rates for many years to come min 2023-24 ...next minute.. rates through the roof ... my 2.19% one year fixed comes due JUL22 ..

[stoploss]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;958728]7.5% rates will break many households in NZ and investors ..yes hindsight I should have locked in 5yrs 2.99% but stupidly I listened to central bankers talking up low rates for many years to come min 2023-24 ...next minute.. rates through the roof ... my 2.19% one year fixed comes due JUL22 ..[/QUOTE
JB most banks allow you to lock in 60 days in advance, your call but OCR this week.

[Bobdn]

One doesn't want to miss the best days of the market, as Kevin O'Leary points out below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PupWO7mpZXo

[nztx]

Kiwibank reckon mortgages of 6.0 to 7.5% in 12 months. Imagine those lucky souls who locked in 3.1% 5 year mortgages last year

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/116051/kiwibank-economists-see-mortgage-rates-ranging-high-75-even-though-they


Looks like we've had the Boom & now Bust is just round the corner

Just in time to catch all those that got housed up in the past 5 or so years

Alas the property market looks like it might solve itself, but costs are headed off the graph :)

Let the politicians try to explain that one down to the loyal confused followers & see how it goes ;)

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;958728]7.5% rates will break many households in NZ and investors ..yes hindsight I should have locked in 5yrs 2.99% but stupidly I listened to central bankers talking up low rates for many years to come min 2023-24 ...next minute.. rates through the roof ... my 2.19% one year fixed comes due JUL22 ..[/QUOTE
JB most banks allow you to lock in 60 days in advance, your call but OCR this week.

I'm pretty sweet .. planning on paying off the commercial property loan .. just my Share trading company loan .. sounds like tomorrows rate hike is being priced in by the banks ...but I'm sure they will move higher if RBNZ talks of another hike next meeting >>

[stoploss]

[QUOTE=stoploss;958730]

I'm pretty sweet .. planning on paying off the commercial property loan .. just my Share trading company loan .. sounds like tomorrows rate hike is being priced in by the banks ...but I'm sure they will move higher if RBNZ talks of another hike next meeting >>

yes its a tricky one as from about 5.50 % on mortgage rates I think there will be real pain for quite a few people. So personally think it is priced into the fixed rates . However if inflation for whatever reason ( CCY & Oil prices a big one ) does not pull back into line and spending fall off a cliff he might be forced to keep going ......ouch

[clearasmud]

[QUOTE=stoploss;958730]

I'm pretty sweet .. planning on paying off the commercial property loan .. just my Share trading company loan .. sounds like tomorrows rate hike is being priced in by the banks ...but I'm sure they will move higher if RBNZ talks of another hike next meeting >>

Is now a good time to buy a house?
I'm seriously thinking about it in Lower Hutt.
There's stacks for sale.

[nztx]

Is now a good time to buy a house?
I'm seriously thinking about it in Lower Hutt.
There's stacks for sale.


you may have to balance it off against what further pain might bring to the market.

could be even better buys to come on to the market .. but who knows ?

[t.rexjr]

Going above 5.5% by any large margin will result in mass mortgagee sales. it'll sure be a good way to kick start a housing correction. Though supply constraints have meant building costs have near caught up with this overpriced housing bubble. Perhaps that will stabiles prices to a degree. Land values and aging houses will have to take the hit. Tis going to be tough until wages catch up for those that scrape buy now while servicing loans.
Yet were in a building boom. Normally a building slowdown foreshadows a recession. It's all a bit flipsy flopsy... Rate hikes could be the cause rather than the cure. I think trying to control this inflation burst is a bad plan. The horse is fine, the cart's just a bit wobbly. Just leave him in the stable eating hey. The problem will fix itself, Its probably already half way there.

[nztx]

Going above 5.5% by any large margin will result in mass mortgagee sales. it'll sure be a good way to kick start a housing correction. Though supply constraints have meant building costs have near caught up with this overpriced housing bubble. Perhaps that will stabiles prices to a degree. Land values and aging houses will have to take the hit. Tis going to be tough until wages catch up for those that scrape buy now while servicing loans.
Yet were in a building boom. Normally a building slowdown foreshadows a recession. It's all a bit flipsy flopsy... Rate hikes could be the cause rather than the cure. I think trying to control this inflation burst is a bad plan. Cart before the horse. Just leave him in the stable eating hey. The problem will fix itself, Its probably already half way there.


Good points .. tend to agree

[Getty]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;958769]

Is now a good time to buy a house?
I'm seriously thinking about it in Lower Hutt.
There's stacks for sale.

Do your research into the effects of global warming on the sea into Petone, and the flow on effect of flooding from the Hutt river, or you could be taking a bath, in more ways than one...

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;958769]

Is now a good time to buy a house?
I'm seriously thinking about it in Lower Hutt.
There's stacks for sale.

I wouldn't unless its going be your own home etc...I do keep an eye on some local property markets and with rates going higher new property investor rules etc .. I'd rather put funds in peer to peer lending side of NZ Property market get 7-10% return without all the costs and as much stresses

[clearasmud]

Thanks guys. It going to be my own home.
Getty, you got me thinking about the Hutt river flooding.

[thegreatestben]

Haven't seen much in Lower Hutt that I'd want to buy lately. Seems like only the dregs being listed or overpriced new builds.
I'll have 2x new builds hitting the rental market in a month if you don't find a place to buy.

Hutt River not the problem anymore, has been tamed with a significant amount of civils in the past 10 years. Global warming/rising sea level is seen to be the issue, even if it doesn't eventuate it might be hard/expensive to insure.

[bull....]

Bill Ackman says a more aggressive Fed or market collapse are the only ways to stop this inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/bill-ackman-says-a-more-aggressive-fed-or-market-collapse-are-the-only-ways-to-stop-this-inflation.html

[Aaron]

Is now a good time to buy a house?
I'm seriously thinking about it in Lower Hutt.
There's stacks for sale.

Aren't you a bit early? I thought you would be looking some time after 2025?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dalio-cash-still-trash-equities-are-trashier-prefers-gold-bitcoin

Ray Dalio doesn't help much. Cash is trash and stocks are trashier. Real Estate and gold and a speculation on BTC. In an inflationary environment a heavily mortgaged house will do OK I guess but are we just coming off the peak of a housing bubble or will inflation take care of this.

No idea, not sure why I replied except I thought you had some strong convictions around cycles and the timing of these.

[bull....]

Retail sales drop as cost of living rises

An economist says rising consumer prices are starting to have some effect on retail sales volumes, but the worst could be yet to come
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/05/retail-sales-drop-as-cost-of-living-rises.html

its starting :scared:

[bull....]

well rbnz super hawkish :scared: more 50s coming

there goes nzx , of course its part of the rbnz strategy as well more importantly in NZ the housing market

[nztx]

The RBNZ Head Seatwarmer Officially throws his Oar into mix it up higher:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128749166/reserve-bank-hikes-official-cash-rate-to-2

Reserve Bank hikes official cash rate to 2%

[nztx]

Who was it on here forecast Sticky times, Recession or a Crash in late 2022 ? ;)

Better start preparing a medal for that poster :)

[Muse]

well rbnz super hawkish :scared: more 50s coming

there goes nzx , of course its part of the rbnz strategy as well more importantly in NZ the housing market

Aye - a clear signal more 50bps hikes coming. A big ramp up the RBNZ’s peak from just a few weeks ago.

[bull....]

Aye - a clear signal more 50bps hikes coming. A big ramp up the RBNZ’s peak from just a few weeks ago.

totally big u turn from last statement. not good for those bond proxy stocks. tina is dead :scared:

[winner69]

NZX50 down 1% since OCR increase announcement

[Rawz]

totally big u turn from last statement. not good for those bond proxy stocks. tina is dead :scared:
What or who is Tina?

[winner69]

What or who is Tina?

Tina from Turners .... market darling

[winner69]

What or who is Tina?

There Is No Alternative ... or something like that

[bull....]

What or who is Tina?

like winner say there is no alternative , of course there is now ORR saying rates can go to the moon lol even admitting he might drive NZ into recession doing it. thats the plan

[Rawz]

like winner say there is no alternative , of course there is now ORR saying rates can go to the moon lol even admitting he might drive NZ into recession doing it. thats the plan

Oh right. So like can’t move out of equities cos raising rates kills bonds and property.

Bring on a recession. Let’s get it over and done with. Rates chasing inflation, no good. Next OCR increase do 100 points

[bull....]

Oh right. So like can’t move out of equities cos raising rates kills bonds and property.

Bring on a recession. Let’s get it over and done with. Rates chasing inflation, no good. Next OCR increase do 100 points

no your be able do bonds at some point as the economy be f...ked so then rates can go down again. but like you say wont be many if any places to hide soon

[kiora]

Yes Bull, next 1-2 year interest rates projections will all be history and we will be going the other way.
Investors just need to stick to their knitting

[clearasmud]

Aren't you a bit early? I thought you would be looking some time after 2025?
No idea, not sure why I replied except I thought you had some strong convictions around cycles and the timing of these.

Through everything out the window when I concluded that the recent housing mania was the top.
My guru who I no longer subscribe to seemed confused in an interview.
I realize that the housing market could take years to reach bottom but I don't want to wait.
No strong convictions anymore and it's not a great feeling.
Really enjoy reading what you have to say, agree that Orr was niave about deflation.

[nztx]

Aye - a clear signal more 50bps hikes coming. A big ramp up the RBNZ’s peak from just a few weeks ago.


Time to get real IMO

RBNZ were the exact outfit which facilitated the large Money Printing exercise which in turn
resulted in excess extra money supply in the goldfish bowl in the first place.

The Real Unreported Large Scale Inflation event occurred with that Act from the RB.

Everyone saw the effects of that event but for some reason the RB must have been too asleep
blind, stupid or incompetent to notice what their magic money creation scheme would likely result in.

A small child in any of the country's kindergartens could have likely pointed out what the
likely outcome would be ;)

Perhaps ORR should step down / resign over this ? ;)

There is absolutely no excuse for RB belatedly waking up that there is suddenly inflation
hitting their dials (which was always there in real terms because they created it) or
for their suddenly moving to potentially crash sectors of the economy, thereby risking
potential Recession or worse bringing on Depression through their own acts..

[bull....]

bad news for NZ out of china yesterday. china saying growth slowing down rapidly

China's economy worse off in some ways than 2020, says Premier
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-s-economy-worse-off-in-some-ways-than-2020-says-premier-122052501323_1.html

[Rawz]

bad news for NZ out of china yesterday. china saying growth slowing down rapidly

China's economy worse off in some ways than 2020, says Premier


https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-s-economy-worse-off-in-some-ways-than-2020-says-premier-122052501323_1.html

Maybe if they bought western vaccines that work or stop the archaic lockdowns they would be doing a bit better..

[bull....]

Maybe if they bought western vaccines that work or stop the archaic lockdowns they would be doing a bit better..

they never do that anyway one benefit of the lockdowns in china is that petrol prices are low in NZ :scared: wait till they open up again lol

[BlackPeter]

bad news for NZ out of china yesterday. china saying growth slowing down rapidly

China's economy worse off in some ways than 2020, says Premier
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/china-s-economy-worse-off-in-some-ways-than-2020-says-premier-122052501323_1.html

Great opportunity to wean our economy from relying on business with another of the nasty autocrats who love to ignore human rights and perform genocide with the money we give them ...

[dibble]

Maybe if they bought western vaccines that work or stop the archaic lockdowns they would be doing a bit better..

Maybe if they went neutral on Ukraine, stopped their absurd and unnecessary quest to annex Taiwan and built some international kudos, their trade and investment appeal might go back up. A bit.

[BlackPeter]

Maybe if they went neutral on Ukraine, stopped their absurd and unnecessary quest to annex Taiwan and built some international kudos, their trade and investment appeal might go back up. A bit.

... and never mind their ongoing genocide in Xinjang ...

[nztx]

they never do that anyway one benefit of the lockdowns in china is that petrol prices are low in NZ :scared: wait till they open up again lol


Low in Auckland too I understand -- in recent days reported as motoring north above $3 a litre
presumably after taking off the discount on hefty Govt fuel rip-offs added on in first place too :)

Probably low compared to 5 bucks though ;)

[bull....]

seems like ORR is frightening the sheep NZX beaten down again

nice little intr-day range trading going on in the nzx , breakdown should send us down too the target i mentioned a while back of 10700.

[alokdhir]

Today have signs of Panic selling ...

[bull....]

Today have signs of Panic selling ...

maybe because jacinda hasnt had a meeting with biden ?

[couta1]

Today have signs of Panic selling ... Did you chuck the berley bomb out to the reef fish getting them all excited.:cool:

[Beagle]

seems like ORR is frightening the sheep NZX beaten down again

nice little intr-day range trading going on in the nzx , breakdown should send us down too the target i mentioned a while back of 10700.

I think we could very easily go under 10,000. We're very close, 18% down from the peak in early 2021, from the NZX50 going into official Bear market territory, (down 20%). There seems no obvious silver bullet to break it out of its downward trend, in fact quite the opposite. It would seem the RBNZ are taking the gloves off with interest rates and will do anything and everything it takes to quell inflation even if it means sending the economy into a very deep and protracted recession. On top of that we have all the obvious headwinds from the war, deterioration in China our biggest trading partner, central banks around the world also raising interest rates, no obvious end to supply chain issues and hugely elevated freight costs..to name just a few of the headwinds that appear unlikely to materially abate anytime soon.

Name of the game is capital preservation in 2022. He who loses the least is the Winner !

[bull....]

I think we could very easily go under 10,000. We're very close, 18% down from the peak in early 2021, from the NZX50 going into official Bear market territory, (down 20%). There seems no obvious silver bullet to break it out of its downward trend, in fact quite the opposite. It would seem the RBNZ are taking the gloves off with interest rates and will do anything and everything it takes to quell inflation even if it means sending the economy into a very deep and protracted recession. On top of that we have all the obvious headwinds from the war, deterioration in China our biggest trading partner, central banks around the world also raising interest rates, no obvious end to supply chain issues and hugely elevated freight costs..to name just a few of the headwinds that appear unlikely to materially abate anytime soon.

Name of the game is capital preservation in 2022. He who loses the least is the Winner !

couldnt agree more

[nztx]

I think we could very easily go under 10,000. We're very close, 18% down from the peak in early 2021, from the NZX50 going into official Bear market territory, (down 20%). There seems no obvious silver bullet to break it out of its downward trend, in fact quite the opposite. It would seem the RBNZ are taking the gloves off with interest rates and will do anything and everything it takes to quell inflation even if it means sending the economy into a very deep and protracted recession. On top of that we have all the obvious headwinds from the war, deterioration in China our biggest trading partner, central banks around the world also raising interest rates, no obvious end to supply chain issues and hugely elevated freight costs..to name just a few of the headwinds that appear unlikely to materially abate anytime soon.

Name of the game is capital preservation in 2022. He who loses the least is the Winner !


Indeed or he who correctly anticipates the best prospectives which go on to deliver wholesale :)

[SailorRob]

I think we could very easily go under 10,000. We're very close, 18% down from the peak in early 2021, from the NZX50 going into official Bear market territory, (down 20%). There seems no obvious silver bullet to break it out of its downward trend, in fact quite the opposite. It would seem the RBNZ are taking the gloves off with interest rates and will do anything and everything it takes to quell inflation even if it means sending the economy into a very deep and protracted recession. On top of that we have all the obvious headwinds from the war, deterioration in China our biggest trading partner, central banks around the world also raising interest rates, no obvious end to supply chain issues and hugely elevated freight costs..to name just a few of the headwinds that appear unlikely to materially abate anytime soon.

Name of the game is capital preservation in 2022. He who loses the least is the Winner !

A technicality perhaps but if we're talking bear markets being a 20% decline, it should be measured on the NZ Capital index otherwise reinvested dividends distort the picture as well as the comparability to other global indexs.

For those attempting technical analysis of a compounded divided return index... I don't know.

Revenues are absolutely exploding, US nominal GDP is through the roof.

American mid and small caps are as cheap as they've ever been in 30 years.

Sentiment is about as negative as it ever gets outside actual severe bear markets

[SailorRob]

Remember when the dunce Orr did a 50 point emergency cut in 2019 before anyone had heard of Covid AND instructed banks to prepare for negative rates...

[Panda-NZ-]

The NZX-50 will more or less follow the s&p 500 index.

[Tomtom]

I didn't see RBNZ as being that "hawkish", Orr just said they would control inflation. Retail rates didn't move much when the announcement was made indicating it was broadly in line with their expectations. They didn't say they where going to increase the rate they where increasing at or flood the bond market selling off assets.

S&P500 is doing OK this year. There have been modest declines but not panic yet. It's a fighting retreat and not a rout.

[SailorRob]

The NZX-50 will more or less follow the s&p 500 index.

Correlation and causation are very different things. Correlation in the past doesn't mean anything for the future.

With the NZ50G index being compounded dividend reinvestment (the only one I'm aware of in the world) it certainly won't follow the S&P500 unless by chance for a while.

Even if the indexes were compiled the same, I'd find it hard to imagine that one of the smallest markets in the world (all of the NZX companies combined are worth less than a lot of S&P500 companies alone) in a remote export commodity country that flirts with communisim and has an uneducated population, would have the ability to correlate with the powerhouse of the top 500 American companies.

That over certain time periods over the last cycle it has done is a fact but we must think rationally about why and what it means.

[Panda-NZ-]

America has a litigation culture and draconian patent laws which makes it hard to do business so it isn't that great.

NZ still rated among the highest for competitiveness.

[SailorRob]

America has a litigation culture and draconian patent laws which makes it hard to do business so it isn't that great.

NZ still rated among the highest for competitiveness.

Rated by who! NZ is one of the least productive countries in the OECD going backwards faster than anywhere. Competitiveness is knocked on the head here starting at Kindy and on through the entire system.

If it's hard to do business in America why are they by far the powerhouse of the world with all the biggest, greatest companies and the best development of technology. Nowhere else is close to as attractive destination for capital.

The total value of Europes top 600 tech companies combined is half of Apples value alone.

[Panda-NZ-]

China might be catching up, no IP allows real innovation to take place.

[bull....]

nzx well up morning again and sold down afternoon , those foreigners must want out

[couta1]

nzx well up morning again and sold down afternoon , those foreigners must want out Good, we could do with less foreign reef fish overpopulating the reef.

[bull....]

Good, we could do with less foreign reef fish overpopulating the reef.

volume is so pitiful already though

[nztx]

Good, we could do with less foreign reef fish overpopulating the reef.

wont be helping your "Trying to get outta here" though ..


"Best dressed steal of the Century" only priced up at 1/4 of their real value may help .. come back
you wealthy foreigners - there's some good Buys available :)

[couta1]

wont be helping your "Trying to get outta here" though ..


"Best dressed steal of the Century" only priced up at 1/4 of their real value may help .. come back
you wealthy foreigners - there's some good Buys available :) Was "outta here" for 6 months last year and must say it was refreshing once you make the break, ski season coming up so definately won't be spending any time on here for 6 wks anyway.

[nztx]

Was "outta here" for 6 months last year and must say it was refreshing once you make the break, ski season coming up so definately won't be spending any time on here for 6 wks anyway.


Have to agree there .. probably won't miss too much on NZX regaining much in current economic winds ..

[Tomtom]

Isn't the rule "Sell in May and go away"?

[JBmurc]

Isn't the rule "Sell in May and go away"?

I wish I SOLD in early APRIL and went away till present to start buying back in

[couta1]

Looking at the US overnight it should be a very Green Monday this coming week, US market is closed on Monday so no lead for Tuesday.

[Baa_Baa]

I would anticipate some positivity creeping back into the equities market, now that RBNZ has shown it is serious about tackling inflation (the enemy of equities), despite the effect on economic growth going backwards. A decisive move by RBNZ of 50bp hike to 2% OCR with talk of going to 3.5% and even a mention of 4%, effectively brings forward the inflation peak projections from mid-late 2024, to mid 2023. As the growth in inflation begins to slow, top out, and turn over, the optimism heightens and here we are now looking at many very high quality equities having shed large percentages of market cap. The buyers market will re-emerge, perhaps surprisingly quickly.

[bull....]

the banks starting to raise mortgages :scared: em i mean increase there margins ( wholesale rates down so cant blame them ) recession next yr once those rates come off late this yr.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/banks-begin-hiking-mortgage-rates-post-ocr/K5REOQXQJBDFBUC7DSCPDXLWQE/

[Bobdn]

And the oil price is up as well. We are in a "climate emergency" so most people will be pretty happy about surging oil prices I guess. It's an opportunity for them to take a walking bus to work and their next overseas holiday.

[bull....]

they never do that anyway one benefit of the lockdowns in china is that petrol prices are low in NZ :scared: wait till they open up again lol



SHANGHAI, May 28 (Reuters) - The Chinese metropolis of Shanghai inched further towards a gradual reopening from two months of grinding COVID-19 lockdown, while officials in Beijing prepared to ease curbs in parts of the capital, saying on Saturday its outbreak was under control

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/shanghai-reports-131-new-asymptomatic-covid-cases-39-symptomatic-cases-may-27-2022-05-28/

that keep the imported inflation in NZ rising and petrol heading to $4 as the price of oil is rising on the news

[bull....]

Latest ANZ Business Outlook shows rapidly deteriorating sentiment for residential construction, while inflation expectations are still 'far too high'

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/116158/latest-anz-business-outlook-shows-rapidly-deteriorating-sentiment-residential

cracks me up up how they keep going on about how inflation will top out soon , it very may well but how far will it fall ? probably not back to 1-2% in a hurry

[Joshuatree]

Diffence between bond rates and inflation suggest it's built in all ready so here's hoping for a soft landing.
Re construction ,without gib you can't build houses for one.

[winner69]

Headline in ft.com - Hedge funds turn more bearish on stocks even after rough start to 2022

And overnight on US markets it seems good news (jobs) is bad news (markets)

[bull....]

what about oil thru the roof last night
Mr ORR have to get back to the books all that imported inflation coming not to mention $4 petrol :scared:

[bull....]

Headline in ft.com - Hedge funds turn more bearish on stocks even after rough start to 2022

And overnight on US markets it seems good news (jobs) is bad news (markets)

elon musk dont think jobs are all rosy

Tesla shares dip more than 9% on Elon Musk’s plans to cut workforce
Reuters reported late Thursday on an e-mail Musk sent to Tesla executives saying he had a “super bad feeling” about the economy and called for the job cuts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/tesla-shares-dip-on-elon-musks-plans-to-cut-workforce.html

JP Morgans not to bullish eh



Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html


even goldman sachs warning too now

Goldman’s Waldron Warns of Unprecedented Economic Shocks, Echoing Dimon
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-waldron-warns-unprecedented-economic-133457514.html

[couta1]

elon musk dont think jobs are all rosy

Tesla shares dip more than 9% on Elon Musk’s plans to cut workforce


Reuters reported late Thursday on an e-mail Musk sent to Tesla executives saying he had a “super bad feeling” about the economy and called for the job cuts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/tesla-shares-dip-on-elon-musks-plans-to-cut-workforce.html

JP Morgans not to bullish eh



Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html


even goldman sachs warning too now

Goldman’s Waldron Warns of Unprecedented Economic Shocks, Echoing Dimon


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-waldron-warns-unprecedented-economic-133457514.html Sounds all very gloom n doom stuff but then I wouldn't expect you to be putting up anything too positive. Lol

[fish]

what about oil thru the roof last night
Mr ORR have to get back to the books all that imported inflation coming not to mention $4 petrol :scared:
Maybe it would make sense to sell those stocks adversely affected by inflation and buy oil and gas .

[nztx]

Maybe it would make sense to sell those stocks adversely affected by inflation and buy oil and gas .

sounds like quite a reasonable play :)

but not NZ I guess ..

a special sort of brave needed at the moment with NZX listings ? :)

clearly in a ditch at the moment - does the depth increase further on or are politicians still digging, ahead
of late 2023 ?

Who knows between Robbo & the RBNZ they might even achieve the feat of putting everything upside
down in the newly completed deep depression and not even realise it themselves ;)

[bull....]

Maybe it would make sense to sell those stocks adversely affected by inflation and buy oil and gas .

thats been the trade this year so far , but in a true bear market all stocks will go down eventually to reflect reality and we havnt reached that point yet

[Joshuatree]

Maybe it would make sense to sell those stocks adversely affected by inflation and buy oil and gas .

I'm buying more oil and gas stocks.Could also buy quality stocks that can pass increasing costs on but which ones on the nzx.The pricemakers.

[JBmurc]

I'm buying more oil and gas stocks.Could also buy quality stocks that can pass increasing costs on but which ones on the nzx.The pricemakers.

I agree and why I've added to my CUE and MAY asx positions ... NZO only stock on NZX I'd be buying at present ..

[Bobdn]

I think I'll do nothing, tempted to sell some XLE and IXC but probably won't. Certainly not tempted to add anything. OIH (oil services) has done well but not great. My 5 per cent tilt in energy ETFs has meant that I'm down just 3.1 per cent ytd over my entire portfolio. I'll take that this year lol.

Good interview with Amrita Sen. Last two minutes are especially good and talks about the Western policy failure and how the energy crisis is of the West's own doing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xgic3jylVSs

Good interview with Chevron CEO - Chevron is 21 per cent of XLE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grFr6G26twc

Lastly, good article on "conservative" funds and the performance of bonds.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128802286/kiwisaver-conservative-fund-losses-shock-investors

It will be interesting to see if the performance of ESG kiwisaver funds get a little bit of media attention now. They've done well over the last decade for sure but I'm guessing they've underperformed over the last year with no exposure to energy? Gee, didnt the NZ Super Fund divest itself of oil and gas stocks? I'll have a look.

[couta1]

Gloomy Tues for NZX and ASX when US was up 2 days running.

[JBmurc]

If we aren't near the bottom in this ASX small caps BEAR run we must be close ....I'm counting on much more Bullish from late 21st JUNE onwards ... see if I'm wrong >>>

[couta1]

If we aren't near the bottom in this ASX small caps BEAR run we must be close ....I'm counting on much more Bullish from late 21st JUNE onwards ... see if I'm wrong >>> Its claws are getting blunt and its getting sleepy, only a Putin Nuke can stop it from hibernating shortly.

[bull....]

asx is tanking they just did a shock 50 pt hike

RBA turns hawkish, delivers 0.5pc increase, says more ahead


https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-slip-rba-rate-decision-awaited-20220607-p5arkc

[couta1]

asx is tanking they just did a shock 50 pt hike

RBA turns hawkish, delivers 0.5pc increase, says more ahead


https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-slip-rba-rate-decision-awaited-20220607-p5arkc 50 pt hike is nothing new for us and shouldn't be a shock to anyone in the current high inflation environment, bunch of sooks.

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/06/world-stocks-rebound-in-first-major-sign-inflation-may-be-peaking.html

Really !!!

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/06/world-stocks-rebound-in-first-major-sign-inflation-may-be-peaking.html

Really !!!

Grant and Jacinda must have told them......;)

[bull....]

Grant and Jacinda must have told them......;)

what to have a working group put together

[nztx]

Grant and Jacinda must have told them......;)


I heard that someone got to stick an Oar in ;)

It must have been a slow day for local financial news :)

[bull....]

BIG ECONOMIC NEWS .... NO WONDER THE NZ DOLLAR DOWN HEAPS TODAY

New Zealand plans to charge farmers for sheep and cow burps to curb methane emissions
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/3180818/new-zealand-plans-put-price-sheep-and-cow-burps-curb-methane?module=live&pgtype=homepage


how do you measure how many times a day your cows and sheep have burped and farted ?

[nztx]

BIG ECONOMIC NEWS .... NO WONDER THE NZ DOLLAR DOWN HEAPS TODAY

New Zealand plans to charge farmers for sheep and cow burps to curb methane emissions
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/3180818/new-zealand-plans-put-price-sheep-and-cow-burps-curb-methane?module=live&pgtype=homepage


how do you measure how many times a day your cows and sheep have burped and farted ?


The "Employ a Green on a subsidied $25 p/hr" Program to dream about the frequency of the animal outbursts
is expected to be announced tomorrow :)

Meanwhile the rest of the world are all falling over themselves laughing at the developments coming
out of GoneStupidZone down under..

[bullfrog]

World shares rebounded on Tuesday on the notion inflation may be peaking after Target Corp said it would offer deep discounts to clear inventory

reaches for calculator…yep…that looks ok…sell below cost to reduce inflation to stop interest rates rising to stop a recession and crack a bottle of bubbly over the return of the bull…all checks out…oh wait…inventory glitch…overstocked warehouses…time for Briscoe to step up, have a sale and save the stock market.

[couta1]

BIG ECONOMIC NEWS .... NO WONDER THE NZ DOLLAR DOWN HEAPS TODAY

New Zealand plans to charge farmers for sheep and cow burps to curb methane emissions


https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/3180818/new-zealand-plans-put-price-sheep-and-cow-burps-curb-methane?module=live&pgtype=homepage


how do you measure how many times a day your cows and sheep have burped and farted ? These clowns are beyond belief, all these nutty plans which will make zero difference to world emissions but screw productive business over some more.

[bull....]

the bad news keeps piling up

World Bank slashes global growth forecast to 2.9%, warns of 'stagflation' risk
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/world-bank-slashes-global-growth-forecast-29-warns-stagflation-risk-2022-06-07/


OECD slashes global growth prediction on Ukraine war and China’s zero-Covid policy
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/08/oecd-slashes-gdp-prediction-on-ukraine-war-and-chinas-zero-covid-policy.html


NZ being highly reliant on global growth this is more bad news.
stagflation in NZ must be odd's on favourite at the moment ........... whats the stagflation playbook ?

In more bad news KFC burgers in AUS are using cabbage now instead of lettuce :scared:

[TFA]

These clowns are beyond belief, all these nutty plans which will make zero difference to world emissions but screw productive business over some more.

The alternative to "nutty plans" from "clowns" is to allow climate change to continue unchecked meaning the world has about 30 years to go before complete extinction.

[Wright]

The alternative to "nutty plans" from "clowns" is to allow climate change to continue unchecked meaning the world has about 30 years to go before complete extinction.

LOL, this is hilarious on so many levels.

[couta1]

LOL, this is hilarious on so many levels. Sure is and people actually believe this nonsense.

[rugila]

The alternative to "nutty plans" from "clowns" is to allow climate change to continue unchecked meaning the world has about 30 years to go before complete extinction.Opinions, opinions ... ad inf.
Worth about the zilch you pay for them.
Proof?
Charging farmers for their livestock is the future of world habitability?
I rather doubt it.
Many other modifications maybe/could/should be made to possibly avoid fears of world disaster. Why pick on farmers who are at least providing food to the world, unlike what air travel, non-electric cars, cruise liners and the like do? Even handing out more free contraceptives would reduce the demand for farmer-supplied food that seems to worry you so much. Does your ideology allow this?

[Onemootpoint]

On that; Sparky has arrived…..

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/technology/2022/06/ports-of-auckland-welcomes-sparky-the-world-s-first-full-sized-electric-tug-boat.html

[bull....]

big night tonight US markets they broke out of recent trading ranges last night.
might be confirmed the breakdown tonight on the US Inflation data.
Even the NZX is back at the bottom of its trading range that it has been in since may 9

[Panda-NZ-]

Where does all the lost money go..?

Maybe shuffled around from tech to gas, then back again.

[winner69]

Fascinating from ANZ …lot of cash gone into crypto.

Buy high: ANZ card spending on quasi-cash and a hodge-podge of other financial payments (a category dominated by crypto) suggests that kiwis' peak crypto purchases have unfortunately tended to be when Bitcoin was worth about twice as much as it is now. Probably typical globally.

[causecelebre]

A lot of the money in Crypto has gone into fiat backed stablecoins.

[causecelebre]

Looking at the new posts today looks like ST has been hacked and some of the accounts : Bull, Waltzing, Entrep (probably all of us) have been compromised

[bull....]

big night tonight US markets they broke out of recent trading ranges last night.
might be confirmed the breakdown tonight on the US Inflation data.
Even the NZX is back at the bottom of its trading range that it has been in since may 9


Inflation rose 8.6% in May, highest since 1981

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html


US markets down at this stage
confirms the breakdown

[bull....]

Dow falls more than 600 points after inflation hits 40-year high, consumer sentiment plummets
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/stock-market-news-open-to-close.html


another savage session on wall st ends down again .. not surprising it was a terrible inflation report which means plenty more pain coming for markets as the fed is getting further behind the ball.

NZ & AUS markets should open well down monday barring the unexpected

[alokdhir]

Dow falls more than 600 points after inflation hits 40-year high, consumer sentiment plummets


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/stock-market-news-open-to-close.html


another savage session on wall st ends down again .. not surprising it was a terrible inflation report which means plenty more pain coming for markets as the fed is getting further behind the ball.

NZ & AUS markets should open well down monday barring the unexpected

As Dow and Nasdaq not yet made new lows ...so most likely we will also hold our previous lows ...11000 will hold for the moment !!!

[Balance]

Someday this war is gonna end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgkIqU15WO0

Meanwhile, enjoy the smell of napalm in the morning.

SELL

SELL

SELL

SELLLLLLLLLLLLLL

[SailorRob]

Indeed a glorious morning for those who intend to use current net cash flows to purchase a share of future net cash flows at cheaper rates from their fellow business owners.

I'm about the only person who has absolutely no clue at all at which price other owners will choose to offer to transact at in the near future, but this morning sure looked good.

[bull....]

Indeed a glorious morning for those who intend to use current net cash flows to purchase a share of future net cash flows at cheaper rates from their fellow business owners.

I'm about the only person who has absolutely no clue at all at which price other owners will choose to offer to transact at in the near future, but this morning sure looked good.

the only problem is your be guessing to a degree what those future net cash flows are going to be.

[bull....]

BEIJING (Reuters) - Beijing's recent outbreak of COVID-19 that has been linked to bars in the capital is "explosive" in nature, widespread in scope and complex, a Beijing government spokesman said in a briefing on Saturday.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-06-11/beijing-bar-linked-covid-outbreak-explosive-in-nature-govt-spokesman

this might not be good news for markets to start the week. also got the the fed meeting next week so all in all should be a wild week

[Balance]

Down

Down

Down


Sell


Sell


Sell

No need to post anything else

[winner69]

Some guy on CNBC raving on this feels like a 50% bear …..in other words S&P500 about 2400

Jeez another 40% from here

Prob means quite a few NZX50 stocks got 30% to 40% fall to come

FPH at $10 / $13 would be good

[Balance]

Some guy on CNBC raving on this feels like a 50% bear …..in other words S&P500 about 2400

Jeez another 40% from here

Prob means quite a few NZX50 stocks got 30% to 40% fall to come

FPH at $10 / $13 would be good

Yup - but the faster and lower they fall, the sooner the better.

Down

Down

Down

Sell

Sell

Sell

[winner69]

Yup - but the faster and lower they fall, the sooner the better.

Down

Down

Down

Sell

Sell

Sell

Down

Down

Down

Sell

Sell

Sell


Then

BUY

BUY


BUY

[alokdhir]

Some guy on CNBC raving on this feels like a 50% bear …..in other words S&P500 about 2400

Jeez another 40% from here

Prob means quite a few NZX50 stocks got 30% to 40% fall to come

FPH at $10 / $13 would be good

Did u note ...Friday night Nasdaq down almost 4 % ...while RMD ...peer of FPH ..was flat ...it didnt participate in the fall ...as its considered to be defensive stock with pricing power and healthcare tag ...So IMO FPH will be able to wither this storm better then WHS / HGH / TRA ....but one is always ready for surprises eh

[Muse]

Some guy on CNBC raving on this feels like a 50% bear …..in other words S&P500 about 2400

Jeez another 40% from here

Prob means quite a few NZX50 stocks got 30% to 40% fall to come

FPH at $10 / $13 would be good

Would love a sharp sharp crash and oversold bargains but we should remember there are a lot of worried people out there undergoing financial trauma...retirees drawing on their battered kiwisaver, panic selling by folks who wont buy in later at lower prices and miss the eventual rebound, etc. nice if you are in the position to ride out the storm as an interested observer and participate in a future rally, but a lot of people aren't.

[Balance]

Would love a sharp sharp crash and oversold bargains but we should remember there are a lot of worried people out there undergoing financial trauma...retirees drawing on their battered kiwisaver, panic selling by folks who wont buy in later at lower prices and miss the eventual rebound, etc. nice if you are in the position to ride out the storm as an interested observer and participate in a future rally, but a lot of people aren't.

FM, agree 100% with your comment & concerns.

We are but little minnows in the over all
Scheme of things when it comes to stock markets.

It is not within our power to influence the direction of the market but it is entirely within our power to influence how and what we do in reaction to the direction of the market.

[SailorRob]

the only problem is your be guessing to a degree what those future net cash flows are going to be.


Yes but they will be what they will be, so whatever they are - the cheaper you get them for in the present the better.

Generally, more goods and services will be produced in the future more efficiently and I want to buy them today for less, so the more red I see the more wealthy I will become, even if fully invested now.

When there is far too much debt relative to productive capacity then real rates will have to stay negative and or debt defaults (which are the same thing anyway) anything else is impossible mathematically. If you cannot produce enough to pay the interest on the debt then rates have to lower or defaults have to occur.

[cyclist]

So IMO FPH will be able to wither this storm better then WHS / HGH / TRA ....but one is always ready for surprises eh

Classic, even if not intentional :eek2:

[couta1]

Some guy on CNBC raving on this feels like a 50% bear …..in other words S&P500 about 2400

Jeez another 40% from here

Prob means quite a few NZX50 stocks got 30% to 40% fall to come

FPH at $10 / $13 would be good Your dreaming, FPH actually ended up on Friday on a down day, very highly doubt you will even see sub $19 let alone your numbers, US will be green again by mid week, these crystal ball numpties are a dime a dozen nowadays.

[couta1]

Down

Down

Down


Sell


Sell


Sell

No need to post anything else Yes there is, remain calm and sell nothing, make another nice cup of tea and sit back.

[Muse]

It is not within our power to influence the direction of the market but it is entirely within our power to influence how and what we do in reaction to the direction of the market.

very well said balance

[Beagle]

Some guy on CNBC raving on this feels like a 50% bear …..in other words S&P500 about 2400

Jeez another 40% from here

Prob means quite a few NZX50 stocks got 30% to 40% fall to come

FPH at $10 / $13 would be good

Hard to say where this all ends of if there's any realistic chance of it ending before the war ends. Going under 3000 on the S&P 500 or 9,000 on the NZX50 wouldn't surprise me as I think the coming recession (if we're not in it already), is going to be very deep and enduring.
I went to an extremely defensive position of ~ 70% cash and short term deposits in late 2021 picking a very bad 2022 and I am very pleased I did.
Just lately I have taken a small position in the recent power company bond issues Mercury at 5.73% and GNE at 5.66% and switched some HGH for GNE as banks typically do badly in a deep recession and sold out of OCA and reinvested the proceeds in GNE and ARG.
It's almost sure to be ugly tomorrow but I'm not tempted to buy anything (other than more GNE, best highly defensive high yield stock on the NZX ?) but will probably do nothing because I have a LOT already and buying into a confirmed downtrend almost always causes more short term financial pain. You might get your $2.50 or even your $2.40 for that one. Its going to be hard to resist going at it really hard if it gets to $2.40.

[Oberon]

Peak inflation narrative on hold. FED meeting this week - would they dare shock the market with a 75pt hike? If they stick to 50, some will argue it only puts the FED further behind the inflation curve. Barclays have argued they'll get more bang for their buck if they hit the market with a 75pt hike this week. Personally, I'd be surprised. Jay Powell tries to telegraph every move, but his ability to stay nimble is becoming increasingly tricky.

I'd say if you're not already positioned, now ain't the time to start buying.

I'm sitting in USD and quite happy to remain there over the short/med term.

[pedro.nz]

Yes there is, remain calm and sell nothing, make another nice cup of tea and sit back.
In the meantime you can always have some fun with a bit of day trading so it’s not all doom and gloom out there :)

[couta1]

In the meantime you can always have some fun with a bit of day trading so it’s not all doom and gloom out there :) Your onto it, fills in the time between cups of tea.:cool:

[Rawz]

I’m enjoying these negative real yields. Thanks to the universe for helping me pay my mortgage.

Should be like this for a few years I reckon

[SailorRob]

I’m enjoying these negative real yields. Thanks to the universe for helping me pay my mortgage.

Should be like this for a few years I reckon

Exactly. It's mathematically impossible for yields to be positive while debt to productive capacity remains where it is.

[bull....]

US futures open down for tonight at this stage , wonder if some of the crypto carnage on the weekend will flow thru to forced selling in equities

In NZ i see NZX has opened down and breached to the downside its trading range last mth implying move down of roughly to 10700 maybe for the pattern move .

nz 10 yr jumped over 4% this morning to :scared: thats a big negative for bond proxy stocks in nzx

[bull....]

Most markets in asia getting a hammering today. notice US futures are declining more now in tandem with the cyrpto sell off continuing today.

NZX starting to accelerate sell off too now


The Fed will raise rates in the week ahead, but what Chair Powell says may matter most
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/fed-will-raise-raise-rates-next-week-but-powell-may-matter-most.html

big event this week he will have to surprise markets one way or another this week i reckon

[couta1]

Most markets in asia getting a hammering today. notice US futures are declining more now in tandem with the cyrpto sell off continuing today.

NZX starting to accelerate sell off too now


The Fed will raise rates in the week ahead, but what Chair Powell says may matter most


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/fed-will-raise-raise-rates-next-week-but-powell-may-matter-most.html

big event this week he will have to surprise markets one way or another this week i reckon Just a reef fish sell off on the NZX, no conviction in the volumes (Pathetic numbers in some of the blue chips) most have probably learnt to sit tight by now.

[Hoop]

In the meantime you can always have some fun with a bit of day trading so it’s not all doom and gloom out there :)

Yes there are always successful strategies and bear market strategies are exciting...In some ways its a pity the bear has a short life and is rare occurence in the Sharemarket cycles

Investing using Market Strategies:

Sailing..Combination of many Bull Market Strategies.. This happens most of the time..terribly boring.The term sailing means lie back do nothing and let the favorable winds move you forward..No thinking involved to make capital gains (if you do want a bit of excitement in this boring long term passive play, buy a dart board and give the dart to a chimpanzee).

Rowing..This is Bear Market Strategy. For the experienced few they have their own highly successful strategies. For the rest of us it's an exciting and fun way of diminishing our capital ..

An alternative, which is very successful of preserving one's capital but is unfavoured by most investors and especially the Adrenalin Junkies is the.. "Get out, stay out...and find another hobby until the bear goes away" strategy....but then there would be nothing to talk about on Sharetrader ..eh

[alokdhir]

Yes there are always successful strategies and bear market strategies are exciting...In some ways its a pity the bear has a short life and is rare occurence in the Sharemarket cycles

Investing using Market Strategies:

Sailing..Combination of many Bull Market Strategies.. This happens most of the time..terribly boring.The term sailing means lie back do nothing and let the favorable winds move you forward..No thinking involved to make capital gains (if you do want a bit of excitement in this boring long term passive play, buy a dart board and give the dart to a chimpanzee).

Rowing..This is Bear Market Strategy. For the experienced few they have their own highly successful strategies. For the rest of us it's an exciting and fun way of diminishing our capital ..

An alternative, which is very successful of preserving one's capital but is unfavoured by most investors and especially the Adrenalin Junkies is the.. "Get out, stay out...and find another hobby until the bear goes away" strategy....but then there would be nothing to talk about on Sharetrader ..eh

U said " Bear has short life " ...thats encouraging ...

As per some experts in USA ...they already said mid October 2022 ...Bear will be vanquished ...Only time will tell ...but something to look forward to

Your take ?

[CD_CHCH]

NZX 2022 Sale 5 - 50% Off Everything.....

[couta1]

NZX 2022 Sale 5 - 50% Off Everything..... Does that come with a free set of steak knives?

[850man]

Does that come with a free set of steak knives?

Think it needs to come with a bottle of Scotch - need something to settle the nerves as the red numbers rise

[winner69]

Think it needs to come with a bottle of Scotch - need something to settle the nerves as the red numbers rise

Don't worry

Just a reef fish sell off

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Getting back to very high fear and liquidations. My trading plan overnight is positioning for US markets to rally.

[alokdhir]

Don't worry

Just a reef fish sell off

U learn fast mate ...lol

[winner69]

U learn fast mate ...lol

Not fast enough .... cos I don't really get the gist of what it means


and Goohle it and it says buy Sanford lol

[bull....]

sp500 took out the prior lows ( i still think it goes a lot lower yet )

bonds are going thru the roof massive jump prob flow thru to nz rates again today which means those nzx bond proxy are getting less appealing by the day

bitcoin crashing maybe back to 12000 is coming

[Peitro]

I think a few reef whales might be on the menu today. ASX is going to be an impressive watch after the queen gave the market the day off yesterday.

[alokdhir]

10700 maybe tested today ...Bulls last support before Covid lows ... Reef or deep sea ...all will feel water dropping today

NZD at 62.50 ...should help exporters and foreign investors who see our stock prices in USD !!!

NZD 60 levels are always seen at last legs of downtrends

[Scrunch]

There was a twitter post last night that caught a moment in time that is incredibly rate - every single stock in the S&P500 (504 actually) was negative. Coca Cola was leading the pack with a return of -0.10%

[Waltzing]

wonder how Minons would say Kapitilism

[bull....]

I think a few reef whales might be on the menu today. ASX is going to be an impressive watch after the queen gave the market the day off yesterday.

asx will be fun to watch and maybe do a trade. 4 -5% fall maybe on the cards at open

[Bjauck]

Don't worry

Just a reef fish sell off The other fish are ending up battered and deep fried?

[bull....]

10700 maybe tested today ...Bulls last support before Covid lows ... Reef or deep sea ...all will feel water dropping today

NZD at 62.50 ...should help exporters and foreign investors who see our stock prices in USD !!!

NZD 60 levels are always seen at last legs of downtrends

nzx going much lower , its still really expensive valuation wise. stock prices not reflecting the rise in bond rates

[Waltzing]

Sky's falling....

Wow Oracle up... and a Red head says only .50 on the table this week at the FED.

[couta1]

nzx going much lower , its still really expensive valuation wise. stock prices not reflecting the rise in bond rates What a load of tripe, many NZX stocks are cheap based on fundamental values (Sure they could fall some more but that doesn't alter the fact) the selloff volume was unconvincing yesterday and I'm expecting the same pattern today, most have learnt not to panic and just sit tight after Covid.

[Aaron]

A lot of boomers just coming up to retirement, I imagine it would be tempting to weight your portfolio towards fixed interest rather than taking a big hit in equities just before retirement, that probably applies to Kiwisaver as well as Aussie's and seppo 401ks.

If margin borrowers are forced to sell after a few too many down days it could trigger a rush for the exit.

The big question is what central banks will do. They might save couta once again with more money and lower interest rates or they might stick to their mandate and fight inflation and provide price stability while asset prices fall.

Disclaimer hoping to gain from others misery in a market bust.

[Ggcc]

What a load of tripe, many NZX stocks are cheap based on fundamental values (Sure they could fall some more but that doesn't alter the fact) the selloff volume was unconvincing yesterday and I'm expecting the same pattern today, most have learnt not to panic and just sit tight after Covid.
I feel that with prices dropping quite quickly 30-40% drops off their highs there are flaws to your argument that people are not panicking. I do however agree if you don’t need the money sit tight and wait for the shares to rebound. I have cash ready to spend, but not ready to buy a falling knife. I will wait a bit longer maybe 4-6 months time when we see with more clarity.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I see the most likely scenario as being increasing rates causes hard recession and hence a deflationary period. Rates will decrease again and the party will restart. I will be looking for outsized returns short oil and commodities, as well as long bonds. But timing is everything, can't just take a position and hope...

The big risk is has inflation become entrenched?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

nzx going much lower , its still really expensive valuation wise. stock prices not reflecting the rise in bond rates

You are very correct. However I do wonder if rates have overextended (at the longer ends) and hence we won't see quite the level of correction expected.

[couta1]

I feel that with prices dropping quite quickly 30-40% drops off their highs there are flaws to your argument that people are not panicking. I do however agree if you don’t need the money sit tight and wait for the shares to rebound. I have cash ready to spend, but not ready to buy a falling knife. I will wait a bit longer maybe 4-6 months time when we see with more clarity. I was referring to yesterday re the panic, most volumes were surprisingly low indicating a measured sell-off, the fact that good stocks have shed 30-40% off their highs only reinforces my argument based on fundamental values, I have no need to sell anything for a loss as my frugal lifestyle will continue regardless so makes no difference to me. Bottom line is markets go up and down but they always eventually end up at a higher point in the future.

[bull....]

You are very correct. However I do wonder if rates have overextended (at the longer ends) and hence we won't see quite the level of correction expected.

sure rates will top out at some stage before the correction ends , the demand destruction caused will still need to be factored into stocks over the next yr even after this

[couta1]

Really good article over on the Nasdaq website today headed "What should I do during Big market drops" by Martin Tillier. Newbs and the worried should read and take note of the points made in these sort of articles rather than listen to the serious gloom n doom merchants on here.

[alokdhir]

Really good article over on the Nasdaq website today headed "What should I do during Big market drops" by Martin Tillier. Newbs and the worried should read and take note of the points made in these sort of articles rather than listen to the serious gloom n doom merchants on here.

Guru Mark Lister also had written a similar article few days back for NZHerald ...stating that now staying in is the best option ...he gave reasons for that too ...mainly being that we closer to bottom then otherwise and also giving some old stats that First month returns when market turns suddenly from bottom is staggering 17.6% average ...so if one thinks we going down more then 18% from here then he can consider selling ...:cool:

[Waltzing]

yes markets will likely recover if the sun comes up but if inflation does stay longer then capital is eroded and those who can should move some capital to fixed securities at higher yields.

This is a situation developing even faster than 08 and crypto is being crushed faster than 08.

NZ is not a tech bubble it had a private equity housing one but so did the rest of the world.

With P/e for many stocks under <= 15 ;Mr Lister is a good read.

[JBmurc]

Really good article over on the Nasdaq website today headed "What should I do during Big market drops" by Martin Tillier. Newbs and the worried should read and take note of the points made in these sort of articles rather than listen to the serious gloom n doom merchants on here.

On CNBC - Corporate Balance sheets have never been better !! ...JOBs Booming ..

Too me there's a great divide happening ... Companies making record profits with low to nil debts ....Vs the over leveraged HYPED assets and companies with zero FCF high debt levels hitting the wall ... aka the Cryptos zero real yields ... ponzi scheme values ... TECH companies with HUGE valuations but very low to nil net profits ...Retail ,,,Tourism etc

As interest rates head higher ... who's worse off .... as thats whats dragging the markets down ..not the Quality Companies but the Hyped up crap ..

If you hold Quality don't sell .. it will bounce the crap won't ... thats whats coming IMHO 2H22

IMHO we will see the markets close higher than present by EOY

[stoploss]

A lot of boomers just coming up to retirement, I imagine it would be tempting to weight your portfolio towards fixed interest rather than taking a big hit in equities just before retirement, that probably applies to Kiwisaver as well as Aussie's and seppo 401ks.

If margin borrowers are forced to sell after a few too many down days it could trigger a rush for the exit.

The big question is what central banks will do. They might save couta once again with more money and lower interest rates or they might stick to their mandate and fight inflation and provide price stability while asset prices fall.

Disclaimer hoping to gain from others misery in a market bust.

Aaron the numbers show most people don't actually draw their KiwiSaver straight away , more like into the 70's so they have a little more time to wait it out ....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300599692/kiwisaver-left-untouched-by-people-turning-65-anz-says

[Bjauck]

Aaron the numbers show most people don't actually draw their KiwiSaver straight away , more like into the 70's so they have a little more time to wait it out ....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300599692/kiwisaver-left-untouched-by-people-turning-65-anz-says

Also if you change into a cash fund now, there is the risk that you may miss out on a future recovery of bonds and risky assets, locking in your losses. To boot you will also have the effect of the current high inflation rate eroding the value of your KiwiSaver fund, all while the tax is paid on the income the fund earns.

Interesting article from RBNZ on Inflation and the NZ tax system (income tax without inflation allowance, absence of a general capital gains tax)
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/project/sites/rbnz/files/publications/bulletins/1989/1989mar52-1carey.pdf

[couta1]

As per yesterday and as I thought, unconvincing sell volume once again, sharks calmly circulating around picking up scraps from the reef fish activity.

[Aaron]

Aaron the numbers show most people don't actually draw their KiwiSaver straight away , more like into the 70's so they have a little more time to wait it out ....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300599692/kiwisaver-left-untouched-by-people-turning-65-anz-says

They are probably listening to their Kiwsaver provider whose fee is based on how much they have invested. As Charlie Munger once said show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome. Although he is the other half of the team that invest long term and don't look at stock market fluctuations.

You would hope that a registered financial advisor would be encouraging older clients to reduce their equity exposure as they get older.

I would think don't fight the fed on the way up so don't fight them on the way down as well. That said inflation is probably higher than interest rates so we still have negative real yields, compare that to current capital losses it makes for a tricky investing environment it might be a rough time for a lot of portfolios.

I notice most of my share investments have switched to DRPs so companies are all wanting to hold onto their cash.

[DavidB]

Well, as they say on Wall Street. Nobody rings a bell at the top or the bottom of the market.

[bull....]

As per yesterday and as I thought, unconvincing sell volume once again, sharks calmly circulating around picking up scraps from the reef fish activity.

volume low because volume sellers cant get out lol there drive the index down 30% in a day to sell a big portfolio

[Aaron]

volume low because volume sellers cant get out lol there drive the index down 30% in a day to sell a big portfolio

If people start pulling their money out of their index funds then the sellers won't be too fussy about price.

[couta1]

volume low because volume sellers cant get out lol there drive the index down 30% in a day to sell a big portfolio Not so, panic doesn't care how far it gets driven down, it just reacts and thinks later, how do you know anyone actually wants to sell a big portfolio anyway?

[Balance]

You can only control how you react to the direction of the market - the market will recover but only in good quality stocks.

So make sure your portfolio is positioned accordingly and then, chill, relax and go with the ride.

[Hoop]

About now is the time to clear up some statistical misinformation..I read the other day not to worry about the Bear, it is short lived (av 8 months) and the average drop is -38%..Compared to a long living Bull (av 3-5 years) and average rise of+114%.

OK that sounds like hold strategy is appealing...but is it...The range goes from ~-20% to -83% to get that -38% average..The last big minus number was the 2000 Nasdaq crash..
Wall St History

In 2022, however, the markets began to creep downward. The S&P 500 slipped into an official bear market on June 13, while the Nasdaq entered bear market territory in April 2022.23

Other bear markets, as measured by the S&P 500, include:4



2007-2009: down 57% over 1.4 years
2000-2002: down 49.1% over 2.5 years
1987: down 33.5% over 101 days
1980- 1982: down 27.1% over 1.7 years
1973-1974: down 48% over 1.7 years
1968-1970: down 36.1% over 1.5 years
1966: down 22.2% over 240 days
1961-1962: down 28.0% over 196 days
1957: down 20.7% over 99 days
1948-1949: down 20.6$ over 363 days
1946: down 26.6% over 133 days
1940-1942: down 34.5% over 1.5 years
1939-1940: down 31.9% over 229 days
1938-1939: down 31.9% over 229 days
1937-1938: down 54.5% over 1.1 years
1934-1935: down 31.8% over 1.1 years
1933: down 29.8% over 95 days
1932-1933: down 406% over 173 days
1930-1932: down 83.0% over 2.1 years
1929: down 44.7% over 67 days


Ref: The Balance. (https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-stock-bear-markets-and-their-subsequent-recoveries-2388520)

As you can see most Bear Market Cycles are short lived..Life expectancy of a bear doesn't correlate with the degree of grizzliness. Some are short sharp affairs some are drawn out but more than a couple of years is rare.
The Balance prefers the hold and accumulate strategy ..

I have witnessed 6 this will be the 7th Bear Market cycle and I believe common sense is best..If the fire gets to hot, get out. Over and over again I witness people holding to the point of total despair only to give up and sell near the bottom and vice versa, too afraid to buy after the bottom because of the bad experience + expectancy of more bad things, so they wait and eventually buy FOMO style near the top.
If you are going to Hold you have to have mental fortification and a "steel balls personality" qualities that only a few of us process. You have to expect one of your companies in your portfolio to go bankrupt, managed to survive but permanently damaged or taken over cheaply and delisted.
Have a look back to 2009 - 2010 on the forum sites..I remember buying in and every one else (except Stranger Danger) were crying doom..It was "the first to venture outside after the total destruction got to pick up the gems lying in the street"..That wasn't brave it was buying at low risk /high reward.

If you do hold and all of your company stocks survive post-bear then look at the table below to see the percentage rise your stocks need to return to breakeven. Often on average this can take a couple of year of Bull Market conditions.

13898

How bad could this Bear be:

Usually the potential never eventuates but you need to understand Secular Cycles (Bull, Bear very long term trends of the PE(10) ratio) to see the potential which apart from Winner69 I know of very few else on this Forum. However a basic look at the PE(10) ratio (Shiller) over time gives you some sort of perspective of how bad this Bear could be..The quicker the drop the more severe it is..for example if it takes 5years to drop from 30 to 15 it does not necessary suggest a halving of the price of equities (S&P500)..reason being the E in PE(10) is lagging and earnings over the next 5 years not doubt will rise moderating the capital losses..The potential however without earnings growth or a sudden fall is there for all to see..
If a sudden drop occurs (e.g Cyclic Bear market cycle occurring over a period of one year) and the PE(10) falls to match that of the 2010 Great Recession the S&P500 potential fall will be 50% . (see chart below).

13897

Note: As the PE(10) is annualised over 10 years (secular) the cyclic Co-vid Bear cycle was too brief and didn't register. However looking at the chart history things are possible to be far worse. Looking further back in history the potential could be far worse than -50%..Looking forward say the next 10 years if the PE(10) ratio keeps trending down (termed a Secular Bear Cycle) the S&P500 will be a poor performer..Fundamentally that means Share price % gains will be less than the % earnings gains..

OK so .. I see what you say..but all this won't affect me..Basically after this Bear Market Cycle the recovery of ones portfolio return to break even could take longer than normal...eg, If the Bear Market wipes out 50% of value it would require a +100% rebound for your portfolio to be at the same value before the Bear and this could take years....the Fundamentals point to a greater risk this time around for those using a holding strategy..As with all predicted risks the outcome is not conclusive, but I would like to use the strategies that have risk/reward odds in my favour.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Two important things occur in these sort of bear markets:

1. Enlightenment. Crap companies are Crap companies: It reveals to all parties, even inexperienced investors, that momentum, FOMO & hype are not solid investing strategies. To borrow from Buffett, for some people it is only when the tide goes out when you discover who has been swimming naked.

2. Bargains. Great companies are great companies: These deep red drawdowns spare the stock prices of no-one. There are a lot of babies being thrown out with a tidal wave of bath water. Excellent companies with solid un-impacted earnings and tremendous pricing power are seeing there valuations falling along with the entire broad market. To borrow again from Buffett: Be fearful when others are greedy, or Rothschild: Buy when there is blood in the streets.

Here is to the contrarian investors, to which i include all the “regular joes/janes” who effectively Dollar cost average by contributing to a fund/kiwisaver every paycheck and maybe look at their investment balance once a month or quarter.

[couta1]

My 4 long term holds being OCA/FPH/PGW and PAZ I hold no long term concerns regarding their futures (OCA/FPH down about 30% from buy in price) 4 other current trades being SUM/RYM/SPKand CNU which im down up to 7% currently i also have no concerns about their futures that would cause me to sell out the trades for a loss so I'm actually feeling comfortable doing nothing.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

If you are going to Hold you have to have mental fortification and a "steel balls personality" qualities that only a few of us process.

The vast majority of investors are in the equivalent of index funds, and they do not do any trading and instead contribute regularly regardless of market conditions, and never sell until they need the money (usually upon retirement, but even then maybe not).

Active investors holding & regularly entering/exiting individual stocks are not your typical investor (although likely make up 99% of people reading this forum).

Timing the market doesn’t work consistently, which is why no one recommends it for the general public, and instead dollar cost averaging and holding for decades ALWAYS works, with de-risking slowly away from stocks as you approach retirement.

[couta1]

The vast majority of investors are in the equivalent of index funds, and they do not do any trading and instead contribute regularly regardless of market conditions, and never sell until they need the money (usually upon retirement, but even then maybe not).

Active investors holding & regularly entering/exiting individual stocks are not your typical investor (although likely make up 99% of people reading this forum).

Timing the market doesn’t work consistently, which is why no one recommends it for the general public, and instead dollar cost averaging and holding for decades ALWAYS works, with de-risking slowly away from stocks as you approach retirement. I have no intention of de-risking away from stocks as I approach retirement (Only 4 yrs away) as the market provides challenge/mental stimulus/fun and keeps one occupied which has far more value than the possibility of losing money does. I've seen far too many retired people go seriously backwards once they start giving up things they enjoy yet are still able to participate in, that goes for sport and exercise also.

[Habits]

I have no intention of de-risking away from stocks as I approach retirement (Only 4 yrs away) as the market provides challenge/mental stimulus/fun and keeps one occupied which has far more value than the possibility of losing money does. I've seen far too many retired people go seriously backwards once they start giving up things they enjoy yet are still able to participate in, that goes for sport and exercise also.

Dont you think that seeing your retirement funds shrink will affect your mental health especially if you are looking at it every day. Do you have a target amount. You champion OCA but all it has done instead is gone down

[winner69]

jeez,ASX down 5%

oops, forgot they weren't open yesterday

[nztx]

Should we rename the thread 'Red Monday' ? :)

[couta1]

Dont you think that seeing your retirement funds shrink will affect your mental health especially if you are looking at it every day. Do you have a target amount. You champion OCA but all it has done instead is gone down I've already been through the biggest fire i will ever go through with my massive A2 loss so the challenge now is to build things back up again in a more measured way which will take quite some time. I still expect OCA to double in value over a 3-5 yr time frame as it continues to grow and refine its business model. PS- Its the life in your yrs that matters more than the yrs in your life.

[bottomfeeder]

Time to go on a holiday until it all settles down. Going to spend some money on frivolous things, rather than watch it go down the toilet day by day. Not going to look at the markets for a month and then hope this madness ends. Business will adjust to inflation. It will be a vicious circle with price rises, wage increases etc, but higher returns will factor in sooner or later.

[bottomfeeder]

I've already been through the biggest fire i will ever go through with my massive A2 loss so the challenge now is to build things back up again in a more measured way which will take quite some time. I still expect OCA to double in value over a 3-5 yr time frame as it continues to grow and refine its business model. PS- Its the life in your yrs that matters more than the yrs in your life.

Have to agree, give it time. OCA will come right.

[bull....]

nice stock trade bounce on asx open. time to relax now.

traders can still make money if there nimble in a bear

[winner69]

All this carnage ..... and we aren't even and may never be in a recession

[bull....]

NZ 10 yr at 4.2 % no wonder the bond proxy stocks getting hammered today

this doesnt help as well

Annual food price increase remains high at 6.8 per cent
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/annual-food-price-increase-remains-high-at-68-per-cent/XK5SFOOEAU7YZDORVXN4IZ2UIU/

mr Orr be worried its not coming down .... more aggressive rate rises too come ?

also not helping today

ANZ hikes home loan stress testing rate to 7.6%, shrinking buyer pool further

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128954966/anz-hikes-home-loan-stress-testing-rate-to-76-shrinking-buyer-pool-further

lets kill the housing market more

[LaserEyeKiwi]

NZ 10 yr at 4.2 % no wonder the bond proxy stocks getting hammered today

this doesnt help as well

Annual food price increase remains high at 6.8 per cent


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/annual-food-price-increase-remains-high-at-68-per-cent/XK5SFOOEAU7YZDORVXN4IZ2UIU/

mr Orr be worried its not coming down .... more aggressive rate rises too come ?

also not helping today

ANZ hikes home loan stress testing rate to 7.6%, shrinking buyer pool further

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128954966/anz-hikes-home-loan-stress-testing-rate-to-76-shrinking-buyer-pool-further

lets kill the housing market more

I’m saying this as an owner of more than one property: Killing the housing market is the best thing that could happen for this country, worth the recession it might cause even. At least another 25% price drop hopefully.

[Beagle]

I’m saying this as an owner of more than one property: Killing the housing market is the best thing that could happen for this country, worth the recession it might cause even. At least another 25% price drop hopefully.

We need a total reset. Be good if it halved or preferably went down by 60-70%.

[DarkHorse]

[QUOTE=Hoop;961988]About now is the time to clear up some statistical misinformation..I read the other day not to worry about the Bear, it is short lived (av 8 months) and the average drop is -38%..Compared to a long living Bull (av 3-5 years) and average rise of+114%.

Thanks for the insights Hoop. It seems bear markets have become less frequent but longer over time - esp over the past 50 years.

Also of note:


Half of the S&P 500 Index’s strongest days in the last 20 years occurred during a bear market. Another 34% of the market’s best days took place in the first two months of a bull market—before it was clear a bull market had begun.2 In other words, the best way to weather a downturn could be to stay invested since it’s difficult to time the market’s recovery.



A bear market doesn’t necessarily indicate an economic recession. There have been 26 bear markets since 1929, but only 15 recessions during that time.3 Bear markets often go hand in hand with a slowing economy, but a declining market doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is looming.




There are some screaming bargains among Australian small caps atm - niche leading companies with recurring revenues and strong balance sheets on ridiculously low price-cashflow valuations.

[couta1]

We need a total reset. Be good if it halved or preferably went down by 60-70%. The only total reset you will be getting is a complete social credit system (Digital ID and currency and all the control that comes with it)

[alokdhir]

All this carnage ..... and we aren't even and may never be in a recession

In this age to super connectivity ...everything happens so fast as all are aware of Mr B's posts here ...

Soon big funds will start buying giving some vague reasons then all will be after stocks again ....Its time to stop looking at markets ...just enjoy your dividends ....forget the capital paper losses ....if u keep holding them then they will come back sooner then we anticipate at the moment ....HGH dream of 2.59 in 18 months

[Tomtom]

I don't think the Kiwi is helping RBNZ with inflation at this point either. Double hike next time around maybe? RBA seemed happy to apply some shock treatment to really get on top of this problem.

[stoploss]

I don't think the Kiwi is helping RBNZ with inflation at this point either. Double hike next time around maybe? RBA seemed happy to apply some shock treatment to really get on top of this problem.
Are you suggesting a 1% hike at the next meeting ?

[Tomtom]

Well we do also need to think about our own currency if we're going to quench inflation. RBNZ have compounding factors working against their efforts with inflation well above their target banding now and has been for some time so they are risking anchoring expectations at a higher level. Ultimately they'll want to avoid that scenario I think.

[Balance]

It’s a balancing act between inflation and growth or rather, avoiding recession.

A lower NZ$ is necessary at this stage to cushion the economy with strong export earnings from a hard landing.

So Orr has his work cut out and I must admit I have my doubts he is up to the job with his wokeish approach to RBNZ policies.

[Tomtom]

Well they seemed confidant there was ample room for a soft landing scenario. To do that though they will actually need to actually reduce the inflation rate, it's somewhat unfortunate that it's only calculated quarterly in New Zealand.

[JBmurc]

Are you suggesting a 1% hike at the next meeting ?

Pretty insane how fast rates are moving ... I'm glad I made a move two months prior to my rates coming off 2.19% 1yr fixed term late JUL at present rate 1yr Fixed will be well into the 5% range by then ... I signed up 4.49% 1yr .. and made a slower move couple weeks on another loan and got 4.8% 6months fixed ...

Horror show for developers ...businesses ....FHB ... anyone re-fixing lending ... rates sprinting up

[kiora]

NZ hasn't got a very extensive supply chain for petroleum,17 days including crude on the water but now shutting Marsden
Seeing the effect here of high prices
"Hundreds of bakeries shut in Sri Lanka after cooking gas runs out"
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/hundreds-of-bakeries-shut-in-sri-lanka-after-cooking-gas-runs-out/47409630

Lucky for us
"Drilling campaign almost doubles Māui gas field's production - OMV"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/rnz/300533899/drilling-campaign-almost-doubles-mui-gas-fields-production--omv

Sad when political agendas get in the way of common sense
"What happens when well-meaning urban elites push drastic changes on farming that are not well supported by scientific or market evidence? Sri Lanka"
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/116310/what-happens-when-well-meaning-urban-elites-push-drastic-changes-farming-are-not

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/those-who-buy-stocks-the-day-after-the-s-p-500-enters-a-bear-market-have-made-an-average-of-22-7-in-12-months-11655224023?mod=home-page

[bull....]

Well we do also need to think about our own currency if we're going to quench inflation. RBNZ have compounding factors working against their efforts with inflation well above their target banding now and has been for some time so they are risking anchoring expectations at a higher level. Ultimately they'll want to avoid that scenario I think.

totally agree with you

[bull....]

US bonds still racing higher up another 10 pts , markets in the red again , asx looking like a 1% fall today at this stage. more of the same for nz maybe

10-year Treasury yield tops 3.45%, the highest in 11 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/us-bonds-10-year-treasury-yield-in-focus-ahead-of-fed-meeting.html

[Tomtom]

Sad when political agendas get in the way of common sense
"What happens when well-meaning urban elites push drastic changes on farming that are not well supported by scientific or market evidence? Sri Lanka"
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/116310/what-happens-when-well-meaning-urban-elites-push-drastic-changes-farming-are-not Half of earths population is fed by the Haber-Bosch process. It would have been far more surprising to most scientifically minded people had agricultural yields not crashed.

In fact one might note that most global food exports are now from more economically developed countries. Most countries with rapidly growing populations are net importers of food and are economically impoverished. It's no coincidence that the IMF loan fairy is being called upon by those countries that heavily subsidise the importation of food commodities like Sri Lanka, Ghana, Pakistan, Tunisia, Egypt etc.

[alokdhir]

US bonds still racing higher up another 10 pts , markets in the red again , asx looking like a 1% fall today at this stage. more of the same for nz maybe

10-year Treasury yield tops 3.45%, the highest in 11 years


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/us-bonds-10-year-treasury-yield-in-focus-ahead-of-fed-meeting.html

Today we will close strong ...anticipating better FED outcome tomorrow then priced ...as we going into FED decision deeply sold so whatever they may say will trigger a relief rally ...Your take ?