Black Monday

[percy]

Trade deficits generally are not good for corporate profits ...... and as a 'strong' is a sign of a strong economy and something we should be proud of so hopefully it gets back over 70/75 cents sooner than later

I think that is highly unlikely until tourism fires up, and foreign students come here to study again.
5 years.?
Meantime it our historic rural produce exporters who are keeping NZ $ falling a lot further.
Inflation,logistics and falling dollar should mute imported goods sales.

[mike2020]

I think you completely misunderstand. There is no choice to be made just chose something else. It's not just numbers it is starting to happen. Much the same as brewing beer they can make milk, with all the negative health effects it is so genetically exact, in a vat, for less then 10% of the cost. But you are right, if we don't make a plan it will take a terrible toll on NZ.

[iceman]

I think that is highly unlikely until tourism fires up, and foreign students come here to study again.
5 years.?
Meantime it our historic rural produce exporters who are keeping NZ $ falling a lot further.
Inflation,logistics and falling dollar should mute imported goods sales.

I am seriously concerned about the NZ economy. Our COVID response will come home to roost with the $52 Billion of newly printed money (inflation here already) and the destruction of our huge tourism, hospitality and foreign education industries. All of them basically foreign exchange earners. We now need to rely on primary industries and other exports pulling NZ out of the upcoming recession and a lower NZ$ is surely going to be part of that recovery. I'm out of all NZ shares except banking (HGH), that don't earn most of their income in foreign currency.

[Bjauck]

I am seriously concerned about the NZ economy. Our COVID response will come home to roost with the $52 Billion of newly printed money (inflation here already) and the destruction of our huge tourism, hospitality and foreign edication industries. All of them basically foreign exchange earners. We now need to rely on primary industries and other exports pulling NZ out of the upcoming recession and a lower NZ$ is surely going to be part of that recovery. I'm out of all NZ shares except banking (HGH), that don't earn most of their income in foreign currency. NZ's is a low-tech economy too. If government policy and investment priorities are not radically altered I think we will see even more NZ companies taken over or shifting to Australia. NZ household priority is increasingly about investment in housing and land...

I remember reading this article some time ago...
As safe as houses?
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/as-safe-as-houses

[bull....]

big fed meeting this week .... will they get even more hawkish in there commentary ?

[bull....]

wall st confirming the break down of the range today :scared:
10yr reached 3%

i read mike wilson is even more bearish now ( one of the only ones who called it right )

“With inflation so high and earnings growth slowing rapidly, stocks no longer provide the inflation hedge many investors are counting on. Real earnings yield tends to lead real stock returns on a y/y basis by about 6 months. It suggests we have meaningful downside at the index level as investors figure this out,” Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson said in a note to clients.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/01/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

[Bobdn]

Tom Lee on CNBC right this minute, thinks we're oversold

[bull....]

Tom Lee on CNBC right this minute, thinks we're oversold

tom lee has been pretty bullish the whole move down

[winner69]

Big turn around ^SPX

[Bobdn]

@Bull, yes, he said in the interview that he has much egg on his face.

[winner69]

Global Dairy Trade prices down 8.5%in last nights auction

Thats not good

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Global Dairy Trade prices down 8.5%in last nights auction

Thats not good

Think you're in the wrong thread mate, this isn't HGH.

[bull....]

Global Dairy Trade prices down 8.5%in last nights auction

Thats not good

no probably some of why the nzd getting a hiding to no-where

[bull....]

Unemployment rate unchanged at 3.2 percent, annual wage inflation rises to 3 percent
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/05/unemployment-rate-unchanged-at-3-2-percent-annual-wage-inflation-rises-to-3-percent.html

i need more wage increases to keep up

[bull....]

nz 10 yr hitting new highs again today after those unemployment numbers.

geez even orr saying during a speech today global recession coming

[alokdhir]

nz 10 yr hitting new highs again today after those unemployment numbers.

geez even orr saying during a speech today global recession coming

What u looking for ...Higher rates ?? or Recession which means ...not much higher rates ? U cant get both ...

Already commodity prices like Dairy auctions showing signs of cooling ....so inflation may be controlled sooner then normal ...then recession worries will need rates coming down ...so we may have a very small cycle of hikes as markets have become very fast these days ...lol

[winner69]

All the things that caused NZ to be in recession in 2007/2008 are playing out at the moment

NZ was in recession before the GFC ..... we possibly are leading the way again and there will be a global recession

[alokdhir]

All the things that caused NZ to be in recession in 2007/2008 are playing out at the moment

NZ was in recession before the GFC ..... we possibly are leading the way again and there will be a global recession

That seems a distinct possibility ...But what that means for rates ?

Surely they will not like to kill the patient instead of sickness ...Central Banks will also note that threat before going full throttle ahead on rates

[bull....]

What u looking for ...Higher rates ?? or Recession which means ...not much higher rates ? U cant get both ...

Already commodity prices like Dairy auctions showing signs of cooling ....so inflation may be controlled sooner then normal ...then recession worries will need rates coming down ...so we may have a very small cycle of hikes as markets have become very fast these days ...lol

crushing the economy is how they did it in the 70s wasnt it.

[JBmurc]

STAGFLATION coming

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNLC9sYDuV4

[alokdhir]

Today US markets rejoicing just 50 pips rise in rates ...lol

Central Banks are much more savvy and proactive then historical incidences of such situation handling also causing long or deep recession is not an option these days ...they dont want civil unrest as modern masses dont have patience like before .

I will bet on mild and short recession as worst case scenario or soft landing with lower peak of rates then thought as best case

In any case nothing much to do for long term holders ....switch to value maybe already done ....now soon switch back to growth will be the theme

[winner69]

Today US markets rejoicing just 50 pips rise in rates ...lol

Central Banks are much more savvy and proactive then historical incidences of such situation handling also causing long or deep recession is not at an option these days ...they dont want civil unrest as modern masses dont have patience like before .

I will bet on mild and short recession as worst case scenario or soft landing with lower peak of rates then thought as best case

In any case nothing much to do for long term holders ....switch to value maybe already done ....now soon switch back to growth will be the theme

Need a couple of good days to make the world happy again eh mate

Wonder what NZ will be like when OCR gets to 5% ….you never know that might happen

[alokdhir]

Need a couple of good days to make the world happy againbeh mate

Wonder what NZ will be like when OCR gets to 5% ….you never know that might happen

I wont be betting on that ...my money is on 3-3.5 % tops ....another 50 soon then some pause and finally 3% ....my best case outcome .

We need keep in mind inflation is measured on PCP basis ...soon it will start looking better even though prices will be still buoyant ...as maximum jump has already happened based on benign previous prices ...so Central Banks will have lesser inflation pressure but more recession fear in next 6 months

[bull....]

fed will love these big stock jumps on the fed days , means they can keep the pushing

[BlackPeter]

I wont be betting on that ...my money is on 3-3.5 % tops ....another 50 soon then some pause and finally 3% ....my best case outcome .

We need keep in mind inflation is measured on PCP basis ...soon it will start looking better even though prices will be still buoyant ...as maximum jump has already happened based on benign previous prices ...so Central Banks will have lesser inflation pressure but more recession fear in next 6 months

Absolutely ... and just imagine how prices (not just for energy and transport and fertilizer and wheat and sunflower oil) will drop as soon as Putin dangles under one of Moscow's bridges. I do hope they have some over there ... do they? Always stay positive ...

[Old mate]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128548000/adrian-orr-to-mps-on-inflation-step-back-and-just-breathe


Orr "we got this. It's business as usual". :t_up:

[Joshuatree]

UBS chief economist believes the "temporary "inflation has already peaked in USA
source CNBC

[Ricky-bobby]

Big drop overnight, opening looked brutal… starting to level out at least. Thought Yesterday’s close seemed a bit weird…

[alokdhir]

US down more today then up yesterday ....Will make us test new lows ...

NZ markets seems to drifting down with US while we did not go up like them last year ...

As per Guru Lister that should eventually provide better support to us while US corrects much more then us ahead ...fingers crossed

[bull....]

massive hammer time :scared::scared: stocks having a good o puke


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITBXC_WSHnE


but as expected. the break down was mentioned the other day 3800 here we come

US 10 yr at our initial target now just over 3 as mentioned quite a while ago
lets see what happens
a bust thru of the multi yr range will mean obvious bad time for stocks

[Bjauck]

US down more today then up yesterday ....Will make us test new lows ...

NZ markets seems to drifting down with US while we did not go up like them last year ...

As per Guru Lister that should eventually provide better support to us while US corrects much more then us ahead ...fingers crossed In the US tech stocks seemed to suffer the biggest falls. NZ has few tech stocks.

[bull....]

In the US tech stocks seemed to suffer the biggest falls. NZ has few tech stocks.

in a typical bear market all stocks go down eventually.
last night US markets it was the first time for quite a while most everything went down
nzx is down 20% in real terms this yr so not having much tech doesnt seem to matter. the fact nz economy is slowing down sharply means stocks are still way overvalued in nz

[JBmurc]

Been my thought since MAY last year I've been shifting away from the PM Gold Sector to energy metals - U308, Lithium , Ni , Copper ... and for the first time in many Years Loading up in O&G companies .. IMHO these resources will continue to perform as other like TECH, banking fall

Yes -ON CNBC this morning from analyst -Energy the place to be next 12-24months >>> https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/29/business/exxon-mobil-chevron-earnings.html

[winner69]

The last time inflation was as high as it is today, the S&P 500 PE was about half of today’s, even after including the correction.

[bull....]

The last time inflation was as high as it is today, the S&P 500 PE was about half of today’s, even after including the correction.

and dont forget the last time leverage was so high they all ended in major bear markets

[couta1]

and dont forget the last time leverage was so high they all ended in major bear markets Yawn wake me up next year, timing the market is for suckers, take a look at any chart of the US markets since 1929 to confirm, unless you are desperate for funds then sit tight and ride it out.

[bull....]

Yawn wake me up next year, timing the market is for suckers, take a look at any chart of the US markets since 1929 to confirm, unless you are desperate for funds then sit tight and ride it out.

yawn no its not ask the poor suckers who brought near the end of every bull market. how many yrs to get there money back if ever.

[daveypnz]

yawn no its not ask the poor suckers who brought near the end of every bull market. how many yrs to get there money back if ever.

I'm so glad I learned TA over the past 18 months; saved me a world of pain.

Even basic TA like not buying below the 50ma or 200ma would serve any fundamental "buy and hold" investor well.

[couta1]

yawn no its not ask the poor suckers who brought near the end of every bull market. how many yrs to get there money back if ever. Like I said if you don't need the money urgently just sit it out for a few yrs if you have to, take Amazon for example those that just bought and held it through its many tankings would be up a whopping 22000% today.

[daveypnz]

Like I said if you don't need the money urgently just sit it out for a few yrs if you have to, take Amazon for example those that just bought and held it through its many tankings would be up a whopping 22000% today.

Survivorship bias; for every Amazon there is 10 Enrons.

[couta1]

Survivorship bias; for every Amazon there is 10 Enrons. There are heaps of companies on the NZX even that are up 200- 300% over the last 7-8 yrs so its more likely the rule than the exception that if you sit it out you will be okay,.

[daveypnz]

There are heaps of companies on the NZX even that are up 200- 300% over the last 7-8 yrs so its more likely the rule than the exception that if you sit it out you will be okay,.

I think buy and holding a large number of companies (or an ETF) is a valid strategy; although you're still assuming things are going to carry on the way they have the past 10 years, which isn't guaranteed. But, as Buffett says, you're betting on the economy and if it fails you'll have bigger problems than your shares.

However, I don't think buy and holding one or two companies is a valid strategy; you don't know if you've got the next Amazon or the next Enron.

[bull....]

I'm so glad I learned TA over the past 18 months; saved me a world of pain.

Even basic TA like not buying below the 50ma or 200ma would serve any fundamental "buy and hold" investor well.

well done
better to have some understanding and acceptance of both methods rather than think only one way is the holy grail

[bull....]

see the US futures are red at the moment . wonder if selling will carry on tonight ?

[bull....]

Yawn wake me up next year, timing the market is for suckers, take a look at any chart of the US markets since 1929 to confirm, unless you are desperate for funds then sit tight and ride it out.

here's a timely article couta so you can get up to speed , this will explain to you why buy and hold works in a uptrend but timing works when the cycle changes. buy and hold for ever is just rubbish talk in my opinion

Buy And Hold Investing. Is It A One Size Fits All Solution?
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/buy-and-hold-investing-is-it-a-one-size-fits-all-solution/

[bull....]

anyway see the markets have continued selling off confirming the range breakdown and US 10yr hitting new highs again

[Panda-NZ-]

It's all a bit overblown. Inflation will probably go down next year (then interest rates stop rising).

[winner69]

So S&P500 ends week where it started

Did anything exciting happen

[kiora]

"While “past performance is no guide to future performance,” Hartnett and the team say the current bear market would end Oct. 19 of this year, with the S&P 500 at 3,000 and the Nasdaq Composite at 10,000."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/based-on-19-bear-markets-in-the-last-140-years-heres-where-the-current-downturn-may-end-says-bank-of-america-11651847842?siteid=yhoof2

[alokdhir]

"While “past performance is no guide to future performance,” Hartnett and the team say the current bear market would end Oct. 19 of this year, with the S&P 500 at 3,000 and the Nasdaq Composite at 10,000."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/based-on-19-bear-markets-in-the-last-140-years-heres-where-the-current-downturn-may-end-says-bank-of-america-11651847842?siteid=yhoof2

That makes our NZX 50 bottom around 11000 maybe ...so another 5-7% downside possible ...

[winner69]

One of top selling books on Amazon at the moment is JUST KEEP BUYING

[bull....]

China Premier Warns of ‘Grave’ Jobs Situation as Lockdowns Weigh
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-08/china-premier-warns-of-grave-jobs-situation-as-lockdowns-bite?srnd=premium-asia

of course a china economy getting worse is not good for the NZ economy

[bull....]

One of top selling books on Amazon at the moment is JUST KEEP BUYING

yes the smart money needs someone to sell too

[alokdhir]

NZD below 64 now ...soon 62 maybe ...thats 10% down in a month I recon ...Shud help exporters and hurt importers in a big way now !!

[winner69]

NZD below 64 now ...soon 62 maybe ...thats 10% down in a month I recon ...Shud help exporters and hurt importers in a big way now !!


…and negative for the overall economy?

[alokdhir]

…and negative for the overall economy?

I dont know why u call helping exporters and hurting importers to be negative for economy ??

Though strong currency is perceived to be sign of strong economy ...look at USD ..Do u think US economy doing great like USD ??

[Bobdn]

…and negative for the overall economy?

Yes, for sure.

[Raz]

Yes, for sure.

Especially help the fuel price.. not!

Can't see NZRB them getting on top of inflation...

[winner69]

Turn of century NZD fell below 40 cents usd …….those were fun times …hope it doesn’t go there again

[Scrunch]

NZD below 64 now ...soon 62 maybe ...thats 10% down in a month I recon ...Shud help exporters and hurt importers in a big way now !!

But that transition takes time and is only relevant for products where there are NZ producers. For many products, most of whats needed is imported. The ability of the domestic economy to expand production is limited or in some cases like car's non existent.

A lot of this lower USD impact is just going to come through as higher domestic prices and even more inflation for RBNZ to try and rein in. IMO lots of risk around higher than expected interest rates. How high do interest rates need to be if they are to support the NZD and stop this slide?

[Bobdn]

Quite right. All eyes on the diesel price.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/07/diesel-fuel-is-in-short-supply-as-prices-surge-heres-what-that-means-for-inflation.html

[mike2020]

I read a couple of years ago diesel was going to become scarce. Something to do with shipping converting away from bunker fuel from memory.

[bull....]

Quite right. All eyes on the diesel price.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/07/diesel-fuel-is-in-short-supply-as-prices-surge-heres-what-that-means-for-inflation.html

yep going to cause big problems for a lot of businesses and consumers

[bull....]

That makes our NZX 50 bottom around 11000 maybe ...so another 5-7% downside possible ...

no nzx is going way lower based on economy outlook

[Bobdn]

S&P futures down big. I'm getting reamed overall even with my tilt towards dirty old oil drillers and miners.

[alokdhir]

What a bad day for NZX ....didnt expect so much carnage ...maybe we front-running BIG expected drop in USA !!

11400 on index came fast ...though I am expecting to see below 11000 but not that soon ...

[bull....]

nzx is going way lower .... wake up your in lala land

[couta1]

nzx is going way lower .... wake up your in lala land Bit of an arrogant/condescending comment based on your crystal ball or do you use tarot cards?

[bull....]

Bit of an arrogant/condescending comment based on your crystal ball or do you use tarot cards?

when a bubble pops , it goes way lower. read the tea leaves all central banks want stock prices to go down

[Tomtom]

S&P500 futures indicate that rout will continue today. I can't help but think though what a remarkable run we've had over this last decade: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/05/03/regression-to-trend-151-above-trend-in-april

[alokdhir]

Did NZX front run US yesterday or we follow again big down today ?? I know Bulls answer but need more sensible thoughts ...lol :p

Stocks are way over sold since they broke 11700 ....so need some respite even if Bull's target of 8500 has to be reached :eek2:

[Muse]

Did NZX front run US yesterday or we follow again big down today ?? I know Bulls answer but need more sensible thoughts ...lol :p

Stocks are way over sold since they broke 11700 ....so need some respite even if Bull's target of 8500 has to be reached :eek2:

Im surprised at todays fall I thought perhaps after Putins speech where he didnt announce anything crazy we may have seen a rally today in the US.

[winner69]

Im surprised at todays fall I thought perhaps after Putins speech where he didnt announce anything crazy we may have seen a rally today in the US.

Fundamentals driving the fall rather than sentiment?

[bull....]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d38R3SNH2LM

[Muse]

Fundamentals driving the fall rather than sentiment?

I was hoping putin not nuking ukraine was a bit of both :)

Crickey the kiwi is down to 63.3 cents

Hope importers have already locked in good hedges this year! That'll put some more pressure on inflation, once those goods purchased today eventually land in NZ (in 5 or 6 months!) or the hedges run off

Good for the exporters

[couta1]

Did NZX front run US yesterday or we follow again big down today ?? I know Bulls answer but need more sensible thoughts ...lol :p

Stocks are way over sold since they broke 11700 ....so need some respite even if Bull's target of 8500 has to be reached :eek2: Bull the Permabear in disguise needs a few more happy pills, actually a lot more.

[winner69]

@ANZ_NZ Truckometer: The Light Traffic Index jumped 8.3% in April, while the Heavy Traffic rose 2.3% as Omicron disruption continued to unwind.

GDP follows so good news ….no worries

[Sideshow Bob]

I was hoping putin not nuking ukraine was a bit of both :)

Crickey the kiwi is down to 63.3 cents

Hope importers have already locked in good hedges this year! That'll put some more pressure on inflation, once those goods purchased today eventually land in NZ (in 5 or 6 months!) or the hedges run off

Good for the exporters

More pressure on fuel costs, pain in the back pocket for consumers.

Was in the 0.72-0.73 range a year ago.

[bull....]

nz imports inflation so lose lose.

have to cause a recession or keep hiking rates.

nzx long way to fall

[couta1]

nz imports inflation so lose lose.

have to cause a recession or keep hiking rates.

nzx long way to fall Not all stocks, some have already fallen 30% plus, you got your 91c call on OCA wrong the other day, you'd better clean that crystal ball it seems to be malfunctioning.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I was hoping putin not nuking ukraine was a bit of both :)

Crickey the kiwi is down to 63.3 cents

Hope importers have already locked in good hedges this year! That'll put some more pressure on inflation, once those goods purchased today eventually land in NZ (in 5 or 6 months!) or the hedges run off

Good for the exporters

Thankfully the Kiwi vs China Yuan has been rather stable (down just 2% over the last month), so wont really impact the bulk of importers goods - but of course will for those getting American priced goods.

[bull....]

Not all stocks, some have already fallen 30% plus, you got your 91c call on OCA wrong the other day, you'd better clean that crystal ball it seems to be malfunctioning.

what you talking about i said oca weekly bollinger band suggested 91c possible , i never said it was going there.

[couta1]

what you talking about i said oca weekly bollinger band suggested 91c possible , i never said it was going there. Just more pointless negative downramping then on a stock you don't own or really understand.

[GOAT]

I think there is a long way to go for this bear market.

People everywhere are reconsidering their spending decisions as they need to pay more for things like food and mortgage. Fears of recession are real.

[Muse]

Thankfully the Kiwi vs China Yuan has been rather stable (down just 2% over the last month), so wont really impact the bulk of importers goods - but of course will for those getting American priced goods.

most goods purchased & manufactured from china are still done in USD and/or pegged to the USD. global currency, for now.
not much direct trade in yuan.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

most goods purchased & manufactured from china are still done in USD and/or pegged to the USD. global currency, for now.
not much direct trade in yuan.

Oh interesting - do you know what percentage roughly that is?

[Ggcc]

It’s looking messy out there. I feel for those that need the money and need to sell

[SailorRob]

Warren Buffett has never met anyone in his 80 years of experience who has been able to predict the level of the market tomorrow, next week, next month or even the next couple of years.

Warren Buffett has never met the Bull.

What have your last set of 5 or 6 macro and market predictions been like?

Lots of moving balls folks.

Obviously Bulls money is where his mouth is and he's got some BIGGG short positions on.

Otherwise he's full of Bull.

[Muse]

It’s looking messy out there. I feel for those that need the money and need to sell

aye the retired drawing on their kiwisaver, personal emergency, etc.

at least today is "Z" day - get our $$$ in the bank account I think?

[couta1]

It’s looking messy out there. I feel for those that need the money and need to sell Always pays to have enough emergency money to cover a year of living expenses, im already extremely frugal and just become moreso in tough times but it doesn't affect my happiness as long as i can still do the simple things I enjoy. Bit different when you're already been through the extreme market fire with A2 which makes the current situation look like a teddy bears picnic by comparison.

[JBmurc]

It’s looking messy out there. I feel for those that need the money and need to sell

those sellers might well be feeling for those that held on while the market had the mother of all CRASHES GFC2.0

[bull....]

Warren Buffett has never met anyone in his 80 years of experience who has been able to predict the level of the market tomorrow, next week, next month or even the next couple of years.

Warren Buffett has never met the Bull.

What have your last set of 5 or 6 macro and market predictions been like?

Lots of moving balls folks.

Obviously Bulls money is where his mouth is and he's got some BIGGG short positions on.

Otherwise he's full of Bull.

obviously he doesnt get out enough

[bull....]

Just more pointless negative downramping then on a stock you don't own or really understand.

saving the sheep eh from following you ..... is that you driving


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpD6sKI8SpE

[JBmurc]

A contracting economy with inflation at 10% and the Fed 8% behind the curve. Interest rates are going way higher which will be a stranglehold on public and corporate balance sheets. Good luck everyone..... systematic risks across all markets are heading much higher ... How many investors watched the "BIG SHORT" its happening again ....

[winner69]

Cartoon of the day

[SailorRob]

A contracting economy with inflation at 10% and the Fed 8% behind the curve. Interest rates are going way higher which will be a stranglehold on public and corporate balance sheets. Good luck everyone..... systematic risks across all markets are heading much higher ... How many investors watched the "BIG SHORT" its happening again ....

Yes but this time you KNOW it's happening and thus can profit massively from your knowledge of the future.

[SailorRob]

I don't disagree with some of the sentiment but 12 months from now interest rates could be negative. They already are in real terms.

Nobody knows and nobody can consistently predict future rates.

Remember inflation by definition is exploding corporate revenues.

Look at US nominal GDP. Absolutely exploding higher.

[JBmurc]

Yes but this time you KNOW it's happening and thus can profit massively from your knowledge of the future.

Yes and I also could be dead wrong ... but the everything bubble might be coming to an nasty end...

[couta1]

saving the sheep eh from following you ..... is that you driving


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpD6sKI8SpE
How about saving the sheep from getting a headache from all your constant "White Noise."

[SailorRob]

Yes and I also could be dead wrong ... but the every bubble might be coming to an nasty end...

Absolutely, and it could be extremely nasty. Which could see crashing rates as well. Certainly a historical anomaly right now.

[bull....]

bitcoin gone negative again :scared: omen for tonight ?

[BlackPeter]

bitcoin gone negative again :scared: omen for tonight ?

Well, that's worrying. Markets starting to show some reason :p ? Some traders with brain left?

[bull....]

Well, that's worrying. Markets starting to show some reason :p ? Some traders with brain left?

you do know that bitcoin and nasdaq are moving in lockstep. i see the us futures are just going negative again now too.

nzd has just dropped another half cent too

[alokdhir]

you do know that bitcoin and nasdaq are moving in lockstep. i see the us futures are just going negative again now too.

nzd has just dropped another half cent too

Whats your lower Bollinger Band range for NZX50 ....it should be below that now ! Is it ??

[BlackPeter]

you do know that bitcoin and nasdaq are moving in lockstep. i see the us futures are just going negative again now too

They do ... one clearly can see that both are dominated by hype. Bitcoin obviously is 100% hype and Nasdaq is some fundamentals plus still too much hype. Just look at the PE's ...

Good to see a hype deflation ... as long as you are not invested in it. Good medicine for markets.

However - we both clearly operate with different time horizons ... I was never interested in watching US futures on an hourly basis ... so many other much nicer things to watch (though admittedly - at the moment the sky outside my office window looks grey ... but the lush green of the shrubs is still quite pleasant. :):

[bull....]

Whats your lower Bollinger Band range for NZX50 ....it should be below that now ! Is it ??

i dont use a bollinger in a strong move either up or down such as we are in now.
but as you say it is below it now but i am ignoring it

[alokdhir]

i dont use a bollinger in a strong move either up or down such as we are in now.
but as you say it is below it now but i am ignoring it

So u use your judgement combined with your TA skills ...sometimes U let your judgement rule over TA also ...I am just trying to understand ...not judging

[bull....]

So u use your judgement combined with your TA skills ...sometimes U let your judgement rule over TA also ...I am just trying to understand ...not judging

sometimes
you have to remember the trend overall to determine what your plan is.

i take it your looking for a bounce because its lower than the band ?
but tomorrow it may not be?

[Hoop]

nz imports inflation so lose lose.

have to cause a recession or keep hiking rates.

nzx long way to fall
Hmmm..
NZ$ falling as well....goes to show raising interest rates doesn't always result in a higher currency or viceversa...eh...Reinforces mine and some others beliefs that a change in currency value in some ways reflects the economic health of that Country.

Some may welcome a NZ$ currency drop as good for a few Hundreds of Thousands..but this is an inflationary hit for consumers (the team of 5 million)...not only does it import inflation but the goods produced in NZ also sees an overseas/home market competitive price increase, a commonly used examples is milk cheese butter etc...A recessionary pressure.
Some commentators are spreading the word that the RBNZ needs to create a recession to remove inflationary pressures..not sure how that would end..Some commentators say that while unemployment rate remains low the chance of a recession is low (I'm in this camp see chart below).

Can the RBNZ engineer a shallow recession with unemployment rate staying very low? That seems to be a hard task as relying on continued hiking of interest rates requires time for it to react (a lagging tool). Get the timing wrong and the interest rate effect might start kicking in when there is signs of life (new shoots). Lowering the NZ$ value could work but only if inflation is tamed...good luck with that with a low unemployment rate.
Raising the unemployment rate is an option (remove corporate fat, allow Zombie (many are invisible so don't know how many and therefore what effect on the economy..could be a high damaging risk of creating Market crashes
Conclusion...no simple fix..Bull

Anyway that is all conjecture.
Present day is seeing no recession on the horizon neither in the US (see chart) or NZ as both don't have inverted yield curves..

Question: Is that good news for the sharemarket?

Answer: not really..Sharemarket theory says the primary driver is Inflation and a major driver (since 1980 due to introduction of Monetary Policy) is interest rates...The economy and the sharemarket correlation is poor..

Therefore a rapid rise in inflation and interest rates sees a rapid correction to the Sharemarket..A Fundamental reaction.
That is simple..eh

13786

[JBmurc]

Bitcoin now below 30k ... Coinbase down 50% from listings ...I do wonder if we will see much contagion from the Cryptos in other areas ..

[daveypnz]

~0.62 has been support for the dollar over the past 7 years; getting close...

I've got a pile of US cash in my stake account; tempting to cash it in

[winner69]

Hey Hoop - I can't open the attachment on your post

What was it about ---- always interesting stuff you post

[Rawz]

Hoop- i cant seem to get your attachment to work- says its invalid

thanks for your post thou

[Muse]

Interesting report from the ANZ just out on their latest forecasts for NZ

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2022/ANZ-QEO-20220510.pdf

[winner69]

Interesting report from the ANZ just out on their latest forecasts for NZ

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2022/ANZ-QEO-20220510.pdf

Like most forecasts that get published (bank commentators, NZ Treasury, RBNZ etc etc) everything seems to come back to normal reasonably quickly - inflation falls sharply back to target, unemployment never rises above 3.9%, and GDP growth is positive throughout...... so no worries is there

[Muse]

Like most forecasts that get published (bank commentators, NZ Treasury, RBNZ etc etc) everything seems to come back to normal reasonably quickly - inflation falls sharply back to target, unemployment never rises above 3.9%, and GDP growth is positive throughout...... so no worries is there

Ha yes. It would be a minor economic miracle for that to occur.

Larry Summers - who called inflation spot on - says “If you look at history, there has never been a moment when inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5% when we did not have a recession within the next two years.”

Thats the American experience. I thought about looking how that holds for NZ but I just checked my shares and saw how much money I lost today, did a vom and lost the will to do anything.


https://fortune.com/2022/04/14/larry-summers-recession-likely-interest-rates-unemployment/amp/

[Rawz]

Lol FM.. not that i need to tell you but,,, it's only paper money mate. And we are all in the same boat in these rough seas.

I remember when i was a young buck in my first relationship management role.. I used to work in term deposits and look after some premium 'mum and dad' investors. I had this one very wealthy couple on the books and it was time to call them for their next $250k TD rollover, unfortunately rates had dropped since the last one which i thought was the end of the world. I was even apologizing for the rate drop (as if i had any control over it). In the end the gentleman interrupted me and said "It's only money, don't worry". He reinvested. For some reason it has always stuck with me

[dabsman]

Lol FM.. not that i need to tell you but,,, it's only paper money mate. And we are all in the same boat in these rough seas.

I remember when i was a young buck in my first relationship management role.. I used to work in term deposits and look after some premium 'mum and dad' investors. I had this one very wealthy couple on the books and it was time to call them for their next $250k TD rollover, unfortunately rates had dropped since the last one which i thought was the end of the world. I was even apologizing for the rate drop (as if i had any control over it). In the end the gentleman interrupted me and said "It's only money, don't worry". He reinvested. For some reason it has always stuck with me

Thats old money attitude. If it was new money you will have received a bollocking

[winner69]

Ha yes. It would be a minor economic miracle for that to occur.

Larry Summers - who called inflation spot on - says “If you look at history, there has never been a moment when inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5% when we did not have a recession within the next two years.”

Thats the American experience. I thought about looking how that holds for NZ but I just checked my shares and saw how much money I lost today, did a vom and lost the will to do anything.


https://fortune.com/2022/04/14/larry-summers-recession-likely-interest-rates-unemployment/amp/

There's a MONIAC 'machine' in the RBNZ building that shows such things .... I believe its indication an impending recession

[alokdhir]

There's a MONIAC 'machine' in the RBNZ building that shows such things .... I believe its indication an impending recession

W69 will not let us enjoy ever ...always reminding us whats next to worry about ....Have a heart mate ...its two consecutive 2% down days ...people are nursing big losses ...maybe only paper losses ...but still needs cheering ...maybe an expensive pinot shud do the trick ...tomorrow maybe its more expensive and I cant afford

[winner69]

Ha yes. It would be a minor economic miracle for that to occur.

Larry Summers - who called inflation spot on - says “If you look at history, there has never been a moment when inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5% when we did not have a recession within the next two years.”

Thats the American experience. I thought about looking how that holds for NZ but I just checked my shares and saw how much money I lost today, did a vom and lost the will to do anything.


https://fortune.com/2022/04/14/larry-summers-recession-likely-interest-rates-unemployment/amp/

Another thing to consider is that the old Phillips Curve is flattening ....so for NZ might need to change Larry's parameters

[winner69]

W69 will not let us enjoy ever ...always reminding us whats next to worry about ....Have a heart mate ...its two consecutive 2% down days ...people are nursing big losses ...maybe only paper losses ...but still needs cheering ...maybe an expensive pinot shud do the trick ...tomorrow maybe its more expensive and I cant afford

Hoop says its inflation that is the main driver of the share market .... not recessions

I sufffering as well but bad to drown your sorrows with alcohol

[alokdhir]

Hoop says its inflation that is the main driver of the share market .... not recessions

I sufffering as well but bad to drown your sorrows with alcohol

Here also no encouragement from u mate ...lol :p

[Muse]

Another thing to consider is that the old Phillips Curve is flattening ....so for NZ might need to change Larry's parameters

too busy planning alternative sources of retirement funds. my top ideas so far

* get unsecured loans & buy loads of of lotto tickets. if win, consider repaying some of borrowed funds back
* become overbearing parent to ensure children are financially successful & will take care of me
* get one of those reverse mortgages from that fantastic bank, Heartland. Heartland Bank - the people's choice
* ramp heartland bank

[Balance]

Market crash always being great opportunities.

This one will be no different as the good & great stocks get sold off with the bad.

But not just yet - not enough blood on the streets from the Johnny-come-lately crowd.

Stay cool and stay dry.

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU Contains a very succinct but complete commentary on the markets performance in recent days.

[Hoop]

Hey Hoop - I can't open the attachment on your post

What was it about ---- always interesting stuff you post
Don't know why the chart didn't show :confused:...anyway I deleted the attachment held my breath and tried again..I think the holding breath method worked.

[winner69]

Don't know why the chart didn't show :confused:...anyway I deleted the attachment held my breath and tried again..I think the holding breath method worked.

Thanks

Cool chart …worth the effort to go back and see it …hope others do the same.

[nztx]

Market crash always being great opportunities.

This one will be no different as the good & great stocks get sold off with the bad.

But not just yet - not enough blood on the streets from the Johnny-come-lately crowd.

Stay cool and stay dry.


Today's close looks fairly brutal .. Oz not much better but a glimmer of recovery in places there

US markets overnight could be interesting on where tomorrow goes

[Balance]

Today's close looks fairly brutal .. Oz not much better but a glimmer of recovery in places there

US markets overnight could be interesting on where tomorrow goes

NZX was down 2% at one stage.

Need a few more days like this to get that key word - Capitulation.

Fully expect to double my money in the next 12 months buying great stocks thrashed by a panic stricken market.

[couta1]

NZX was down 2% at one stage.

Need a few more days like this to get that key word - Capitulation.

Fully expect to double my money in the next 12 months buying great stocks thrashed by a panic stricken market. Not happening tomorrow, Dow futures flashing bright green.

[JBmurc]

NZD below 64 now ...soon 62 maybe ...thats 10% down in a month I recon ...Shud help exporters and hurt importers in a big way now !!

And now that we will be importing a much higher priced refined fuels from overseas $4lt fuel is coming sooner than later >>NZD going much lower IMHO ... one positive great for tourism and exporters ... cheap cheap NZ

Too bad we pretty much import everything we Consume so Inflation going much higher

[JBmurc]

NZX was down 2% at one stage.

Need a few more days like this to get that key word - Capitulation.

Fully expect to double my money in the next 12 months buying great stocks thrashed by a panic stricken market.

Dreaming if you think you will double your investment on the NZX within 12 months in a mix of stocks

[Balance]

Dreaming if you think you will double your investment on the NZX within 12 months in a mix of stocks

You mean you did not do that in 2020?

[JBmurc]

You mean you did not do that in 2020?

that was the ASX with a mix of Spec resources shares ... please to tell what Mix of shares on the NZX has 100%+ upside within 12months .. I've done 100% already via my ASX comp pics ... but looking at NZX comp I think a much harder feat>>I see some decent safer Yield plays but a mix of muti-baggers nope not much in sight IMHO

[Balance]

that was the ASX with a mix of Spec resources shares ... please to tell what Mix of shares on the NZX has 100%+ upside within 12months .. I've done 100% already via my ASX comp pics ... but looking at NZX comp I think a much harder feat>>I see some decent safer Yield plays but a mix of muti-baggers nope not much in sight IMHO

Wait for the crash & capitulation.

[JBmurc]

Wait for the crash & capitulation.

Not coming tonight by the looks of it ...but we do have friday the 13th coming ??? Going have to be one hell of a crash to see you get decent NZX companies at a 50%+ discount to fair value

[peat]

Took a long on the SP500 at 4000

[Balance]

Not coming tonight by the looks of it ...but we do have friday the 13th coming ??? Going have to be one hell of a crash to see you get decent NZX companies at a 50%+ discount to fair value

This is what I wrote :


NZX was down 2% at one stage.

Need a few more days like this to get that key word - Capitulation.

Fully expect to double my money in the next 12 months buying great stocks thrashed by a panic stricken market.

If there is a one day crash of 10%+, that will be great but this is going to be a drawn out crash over several days.

There are a lot of newbies in the likes of Sharesies completely spooked by the volatility in this market and wanting out.

BRING IT ON!

LET’S DO THIS!

[bull....]

Took a long on the SP500 at 4000

stopped out ? currently under 4000

[mike2020]

stopped out ? currently under 4000

4002.23000

[Balance]

Not happening tomorrow, Dow futures flashing bright green.

Reinforcing my own view :

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-bear-market-until-one-191316193.html

Dennis Gartman says U.S. stocks are and will be in a bear market until a one-day “violent, downward movement” signals that prices have reached bottom.

“We’ll have one day when we’ll be down 5% or 6% and that’ll be the final selling pressure,” the chairman of the University of Akron Endowment told Bloomberg Radio on Monday. “That’ll end the bear market.”

Investors should “be less involved. Be less long. Try to be as conservative as one can be,” Gartman said. “He or she who loses the least shall be the winner.”

People are still comfortable buying price dips in stocks, and until they give up on that approach and the market delivers a “three or four or 5% decline in one day and another washout, I’ll have to stay bearish,” he said.

[bull....]

NZD under 63c today

[Balance]

NZD under 63c today

Perfect!

Market playing out exactly as one could hope to.

[850man]

The bear is here according to Trading view https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QQQ/uRpGu8FW-4-things-to-remember-about-bear-markets/ Inexperienced folks like myself would love some commentary from you more experienced in bear times on how best to handle it.

[winner69]

NZD under 63c today

It was fun days in NZ when it went below 40 cents at the turn of the century

Then again it was also fun first time I went to the US I got about US1.40;for each NZ buck

[couta1]

The bear is here according to Trading view https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QQQ/uRpGu8FW-4-things-to-remember-about-bear-markets/ Inexperienced folks like myself would love some commentary from you more experienced in bear times on how best to handle it. Make yourself a cup of tea and grab a few biscuits and relax and do nothing except buy if you have the dosh to do so.

[alokdhir]

Make yourself a cup of tea and grab a few biscuits and relax and do nothing except buy if you have the dosh to do so.

Normally when Bear comes in media means time for Bear to go soon ...lol :p

[bull....]

The bear is here according to Trading view https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QQQ/uRpGu8FW-4-things-to-remember-about-bear-markets/ Inexperienced folks like myself would love some commentary from you more experienced in bear times on how best to handle it.

colin twiggs - incredible charts just posted its a bear market too

https://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/trading_diary.php

[couta1]

colin twiggs - incredible charts just posted its a bear market too

https://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/trading_diary.php Lets get your inappropriate name changed, more bear and less bull****.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks

Cool chart …worth the effort to go back and see it …hope others do the same.

Agree - and here is the link to make it easier to find the chart:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10339-Black-Monday&p=956086&viewfull=1#post956086

[BlackPeter]

The bear is here according to Trading view https://www.tradingview.com/chart/QQQ/uRpGu8FW-4-things-to-remember-about-bear-markets/ Inexperienced folks like myself would love some commentary from you more experienced in bear times on how best to handle it.

Easy.

If you are brave and if you believe the bear will stay around: stay in cash and / or buy ETF's shorting share indices like e.g. BEAR, BBOZ or BBUS!

Obviously - make sure you don't miss the bottom ... same as with the top, there is no bell ringing to wake shorters up.

For investors or more faint hearted traders: Buy companies with pricing power producing stuff people need .... and keep plenty of cash in safe locations (NO - not under the mattress ...).

One last thing ... they say don't panic, but if you must, panic early (which may or may not be already too late).

Good luck ... and don't panic ... s. above

[Rawz]

Agree - and here is the link to make it easier to find the chart:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10339-Black-Monday&p=956086&viewfull=1#post956086

Thanks BP

And thanks for the chart HOOP. Interesting!!

[Hoop]

NZ50C STATUS: BEAR

When in Bear status expect it to act like a bear..dangerous, sometimes calm and seemingly cute, displays of multiple bouts of bad temper, sudden irrational behaviour.

Descending Triangle patterns are classed as bearish continuation patterns when in a down trending environment ..In these down trending environments the descending triangle has a high odds of breaking out lower..

Assuming the NZ50c will break out downwards today (close below 4750ish) the trading calculation target will be 4800 - (5100 - 4800) = 4500.
That 4500 is a line in the sand..a rough point (without any major positive news) at when a more positive trading sentiment should start to reappear.

The chart below is ugly

13738

I posted this on 27th April Post #10716 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10339-Black-Monday/page1072). (edit:..Sharetrader has chart display problems :mad ;: if you can't see the chart please click the link) read the purple text near the right hand bottom of the chart.
NZ50C index's yesterdays close was 4,550.6899 lets round that up to 4551 shall we.
The difference between a Technical Bear and Official Bear Market Cycle is you have the earlier knowledge of the NZX50C index's current trading behavioral pattern....that is the index's behavior will be similar to that of a bear. Observing the Technical Bear can give you fore-warning to be cautious and change one's investment strategy ... Waiting for it to become an official Bear Market Cycle could be and usually is very costly (a more or less 20% dent to your portfolio)..Waiting also creates an investment "locked in" dilemma..."I've lost 20% so I don't want to sell and realise the loss but if I don't sell the market could go down further and if I do sell the market could rally without me...

A Bear's behaviour that investors should know about:
1..Loveable and cute at first until it gets cranky and throws a hissyfit,.
2..Bears are dangerous and destructive animals.
3..A bear's temperment is highly volatile and when in a rage it displays gross irrationality. In between the rages the bear seems calm, playful and friendly.
4..Bears have a great sense of smell and can sniff out animals that are hiding. They can even climb trees.
5..Bears are Omnivores. Their diet is eat anything.. quote from faunafacts (https://faunafacts.com/bears/carnivores-herbivores-or-omnivores/)..."....A bear’s diet can change to adapt to the weather or habitat it’s in. For example, when bears leave their dens in the spring post hibernation, it’s not uncommon for them to exist on a diet of available berries and winter-killed carrion like moose, deer, or fish...."

Now with the investor armed with this knowledge..what is the best and safest the answer to this question.."If you were walking in the woods one day and saw a bear roaming the same woods, what should you do...Ignore the bear and keep walking? go up to the bear and give it a hug? hide? turn around and leave the woods and come back when the bear is gone?"

Giving the bear a hug might seem a ridiculous answer but from the various investing forums it seems many hug the bear by using the buy and hold strategy during both Bull and Bear Cycles.

[alokdhir]

I posted this on 27th April. read the purple text near the right hand bottom of the chart.
NZ50C index's yesterdays close was 4,550.6899 lets round that up to 4551 shall we.
The difference between a Technical Bear and Official Bear Market Cycle is you have the earlier knowledge of the NZX50C index's current trading behavioral pattern....that is the index's behavior will be similar to that of a bear. Observing the Technical Bear can give you fore-warning to be cautious and change one's investment strategy ... Waiting for it to become an official Bear Market Cycle could be and usually is very costly (a more or less 20% dent to your portfolio)..Waiting also creates an investment "locked in" dilemma..."I've lost 20% so I don't want to sell and realise the loss but if I don't sell the market could go down further and if I do sell the market could rally without me...

A Bear's behaviour that investors should know about:
1..Loveable and cute at first until it gets cranky and throws a hissyfit,.
2..Bears are dangerous and destructive animals.
3..A bear's temperment is highly volatile and when in a rage it displays gross irrationality. In between the rages the bear seems calm, playful and friendly.
4..Bears have a great sense of smell and can sniff out animals that are hiding. They can even climb trees.
5..Bears are Omnivores. Their diet is eat anything.. quote from faunafacts (https://faunafacts.com/bears/carnivores-herbivores-or-omnivores/)..."....A bear’s diet can change to adapt to the weather or habitat it’s in. For example, when bears leave their dens in the spring post hibernation, it’s not uncommon for them to exist on a diet of available berries and winter-killed carrion like moose, deer, or fish...."

Now with the investor armed with this knowledge..what is the best and safest the answer to this question.."If you were walking in the woods one day and saw a bear roaming the same woods, what should you do...Ignore the bear and keep walking? go up to the bear and give it a hug? hide? turn around and leave the woods and come back when the bear is gone?"

Giving the bear a hug might seem a ridiculous answer but from the various investing forums it seems many hug the bear by using the buy and hold strategy during both Bull and Bear Cycles.

As mentioned by u earlier ...If a bear rally starts from 4500 then what will be its measured targets as per TA ?

[SailorRob]

The stock market will definitely go lower from here, unless it goes higher, which it might; but only if doesn’t go lower. Which it shall, unless it doesn’t… then it won’t.

[Hoop]

As mentioned by u earlier ...If a bear rally starts from 4500 then what will be its measured targets as per TA ?

Alokdhir..in answer to your question. We are seeing the bears claws and the mauling of investors..Remember the bear is irrational (fundamentally my quote:..The bear can't count)..We maybe be near Bear market Cycle phase 2 which sees the bear calming down for a while and investors will come out of hiding and create a relief rally just how large any relief rally is depends on the news..all you need to know is the market is still a bear and the next tantrum will create a lower low..
Perhaps 4500 is the point where investor relief starts..time will tell.
If a rally starts from 4500 expect disappoints on the way.. Don't expect it to go through many resistance levels. Most bear rallies fail at the next major resistance level (4800)..There are a lot of minor resistance levels above 4800 so the index has to have powerful buyer momentum to push through all those resistances to reach 5050. Although anything is possible it is asking a bit much when in the NZ50C is a bear......that's the statistical result fact


From my post #10716 The descending triangle pattern formed during a down trend is considered a continuation pattern in other words the chances of the NZ50C index breaking out below the triangle pattern has far greater odds than breaking out through the top..
How is this worked out?...Many people do statistical analysis of 10 of thousands and maybe hundreds of thousands of each pattern to determine the odds..One of these people has book and Bulkowski's The Pattern Site (https://thepatternsite.com/) is must see for anyone interested in TA charting.

To get a basic understanding of charting..Charting displays the past up to the present day of all buyers and sellers grouped together..This is the psychological trading behaviour in a graphic form. Strangely most people believe in the written alphabetic form but most dismiss (skeptic) the numeric or visible form ..even though they believe that a picture can be worth a 1000 words.
Predicting in charting is based on the results of 10 or 100 of thousands of past results to obtain a statistical result (probability of a happening).

My chart shows a descending triangle breakout and the statistical probability of after the fall buyers start to become excited again (psychological) and start to influence the market with their buying. with NZ50C that should start around the 4500 level..This is as long as there isn't any sudden bad news...this could be the Stage 2 developing when we see an end to the latest sharp drop and replaced with a few sucker rallies Usually during a Bear Market Cycle (early stage 1 phase) it takes a while before investor denial dissipates ..The media displays peoples feelings so when people are in denial the news is usually more optimistic than it should be and we hear more good news than bad news..
We have reached the point of the Bear Market cycle (late phase 1) where the investors are starting to realise..so the denial is dissipating..the media reacts according and starts to publish more bad news than good news and so the fulfilling prophesy begins with capitulation waves before the commencement of Bear Market phase 2 which sees investor relief after the capitulation waves. On the chart it is easy to see the Bear Market phases because of its vision showing the past behaviour..but when the Bear Market Starts at that time it is impossible to see it as it looks like one of many bull market cycle corrections..It's only when the Bear Market cycle matures towards stage 2 that we get the feeling that the bull might be dead..

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir..in answer to your question. We are seeing the bears claws and the mauling of investors..Remember the bear is irrational (fundamentally my quote:..The bear can't count)..We maybe be near Bear market Cycle phase 2 which sees the bear calming down for a while and investors will come out of hiding and create a relief rally just how large any relief rally is depends on the news..all you need to know is the market is still a bear and the next tantrum will create a lower low..
Perhaps 4500 is the point where investor relief starts..time will tell.
If a rally starts from 4500 expect disappoints on the way.. Don't expect it to go through many resistance levels. Most bear rallies fail at the next major resistance level (4800)..There are a lot of minor resistance levels above 4800 so the index has to have powerful buyer momentum to push through all those resistances to reach 5050. Although anything is possible it is asking a bit much when in the NZ50C is a bear......that's the statistical result fact


From my post #10716 The descending triangle pattern formed during a down trend is considered a continuation pattern in other words the chances of the NZ50C index breaking out below the triangle pattern has far greater odds than breaking out through the top..
How is this worked out?...Many people do statistical analysis of 10 of thousands and maybe hundreds of thousands of each pattern to determine the odds..One of these people has book and Bulkowski's The Pattern Site (https://thepatternsite.com/) is must see for anyone interested in TA charting.

To get a basic understanding of charting..Charting displays the past up to the present day of all buyers and sellers grouped together..This is the psychological trading behaviour in a graphic form. Strangely most people believe in the written alphabetic form but most dismiss (skeptic) the numeric or visible form ..even though they believe that a picture can be worth a 1000 words.
Predicting in charting is based on the results of 10 or 100 of thousands of past results to obtain a statistical result (probability of a happening).

My chart shows a descending triangle breakout and the statistical probability of after the fall buyers start to become excited again (psychological) and start to influence the market with their buying. with NZ50C that should start around the 4500 level..This is as long as there isn't any sudden bad news...this could be the Stage 2 developing when we see an end to the latest sharp drop and replaced with a few sucker rallies Usually during a Bear Market Cycle (early stage 1 phase) it takes a while before investor denial dissipates ..The media displays peoples feelings so when people are in denial the news is usually more optimistic than it should be and we hear more good news than bad news..
We have reached the point of the Bear Market cycle (late phase 1) where the investors are starting to realise..so the denial is dissipating..the media reacts according and starts to publish more bad news than good news and so the fulfilling prophesy begins with capitulation waves before the commencement of Bear Market phase 2 which sees investor relief after the capitulation waves. On the chart it is easy to see the Bear Market phases because of its vision showing the past behaviour..but when the Bear Market Starts at that time it is impossible to see it as it looks like one of many bull market cycle corrections..It's only when the Bear Market cycle matures towards stage 2 that we get the feeling that the bull might be dead..

Thanks Hoop ...very informative . Very kind of u to explain in great detail ...:t_up:

[Rawz]

Thanks heaps for your post Hoop

[850man]

Thanks Hoop. Well worded :t_up:

[Panda-NZ-]

Has US inflation peaked?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-2022-when-will-it-decline/

No more cheap 0-3% consumer loans at least (and the poor students who pay more than that).

Should take some money out of the system.

[winner69]

Has US inflation peaked?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-2022-when-will-it-decline/

No more cheap 0-3% consumer loans at least (and the poor students who pay more than that).

Should take some money out of the system.

Of course US inflation has peaked

Tonight will confirm that …it will be less than last months 8.5%


or else there will be a awful bad market reaction

[t.rexjr]

A dollar is not what it once was. Quantitative easing, supply chain issues, war...... We're just playing catch up.

[nztx]

A dollar is not what it once was. Quantitative easing, supply chain issues, war...... We're just playing catch up.


what about the Rusky's taste for stacking up on the greenback - official or unofficial ? ;)

I can't see South Africa jumping in to take up increased available stocks any time soon :)

[Muse]

Of course US inflation has peaked

Tonight will confirm that …it will be less than last months 8.5%


or else there will be a awful bad market reaction

According to CNBC (your fav) the consensus is for 8.1% headline CPI and core CPI of 6%. Fingers crossed it comes in below.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/10/aprils-consumer-price-index-report-expected-to-show-inflation-has-already-peaked-.html

Think we could all do another day without the yanks market melting down

[Tomtom]

I'm less worried about inflation when it's below the rate of wage growth. Otherwise inflation reduces the spending power of consumers in real terms which makes the economic environment very difficult for companies to engineer meaningful growth. When consumers are shocked it typically takes a long time for them to start spending again.

[JBmurc]

Looking Green SP500 futures up 1.15% Energy up strongly .. Bring on trade tomorrow .. didn't watch the markets today far to busy Golfing >>> and Glad I was Rubbish Flat day

[Tomtom]

According to CNBC (your fav) the consensus is for 8.1% headline CPI and core CPI of 6%. Fingers crossed it comes in below.
Inflation 8.3%, Core 6.2%. So slightly higher than estimates. Real hourly earning -2.6%.

Sell off again?

[Onemootpoint]

Inflation 8.3%, Core 6.2%. So slightly higher than estimates. Real hourly earning -2.6%.

Sell off again?

Futures went from positive to negative on that news. A tad lower than March 2022 but still slightly higher than expected.

[causecelebre]

I've name my portfolio "Amber Heard" because it just sh!t the bed

[Tomtom]

Mr. Market doesn't seem to care right now, shrugged off the higher inflation and took off. Maybe realising Powell tied one hand behind the Feds back by promising no 75bps rises yesterday made them realise that the inflation numbers didn't really matter all that much and the Fed would do whatever it was going to do anyway regardless of the inflation data?

[Ricky-bobby]

Big dip tomorrow? Feels like the warm up?..

[bull....]

Inflation 8.3%, Core 6.2%. So slightly higher than estimates. Real hourly earning -2.6%.

Sell off again?

Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining near 40-year highs


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/cpi-april-2022.html

3800 here we come or lower ?

these hot inflation figures are political in the US WHICH MEANS LOTS OF PRESSURE ON POWELL

[bull....]

i was talking the other day about the correllation between bitcoin and nasdaq and how in sync they are. or is nasdaq leading bitcoin ?

well anyway who ever is leading who got some interesting things happening like
bitcoin sitting on major support roughly now , has had big bounces of these levels twice since 2021
anyway im not saying it going to bounce here but im more wondering what happen if it breaks down below these big supports ? would that imply nasdaq will get crushed on the downside along with the bitcoin anyway worth watching the bitcoin level

[Entrep]

i was talking the other day about the correllation between bitcoin and nasdaq and how in sync they are. or is nasdaq leading bitcoin ?

well anyway who ever is leading who got some interesting things happening like
bitcoin sitting on major support roughly now , has had big bounces of these levels twice since 2021
anyway im not saying it going to bounce here but im more wondering what happen if it breaks down below these big supports ? would that imply nasdaq will get crushed on the downside along with the bitcoin anyway worth watching the bitcoin level

BTC has other stuff going on right now (LUNA/UST) that is nuking it.

[winner69]

According to CNBC (your fav) the consensus is for 8.1% headline CPI and core CPI of 6%. Fingers crossed it comes in below.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/10/aprils-consumer-price-index-report-expected-to-show-inflation-has-already-peaked-.html

Think we could all do another day without the yanks market melting down

Just as well NZ inflation is so hard to calculate we only do it quarterly

So well live with 6.9% for a few more months ….cool eh

[mike2020]

Just as well NZ inflation is so hard to calculate we only do it quarterly

So well live with 6.9% for a few more months ….cool eh

Another reason I see strong dividend payers as a good investment still. Inflation will take care of interest rates.

[alokdhir]

After reading Hoop's thoughts about Bear markets ....I did some more research and found that Bear markets can be mostly short lived ...fast and furious rerating of stock prices based on changed fundamentals ....very likely to overshoot fair values by a huge margin as when stampede happens then destruction also is caused .

So what expert TA people and experienced analysts think aloud about possible level at which NZX 50 will become deep value ....like Covid drop it went till 8500 intraday ...it was faster down so could recover fast too ....this time it can stay down longer till fundamentals support recovery ...

IMO anything close to 10000-10500 band will make NZX 50 look value and it may stabilise around that ...intra day or short term can undershoot that ...but base formation maybe around that band ....another 10% downside possible ...but need some up retracement first ...Hoops bear rally till 11700 can do that then stage 3 and final capitulation around October !!!

[SailorRob]

After reading Hoop's thoughts about Bear markets ....I did some more research and found that Bear markets can be mostly short lived ...fast and furious rerating of stock prices based on changed fundamentals ....very likely to overshoot fair values by a huge margin as when stampede happens then destruction also is caused .

So what expert TA people and experienced analysts think aloud about possible level at which NZX 50 will become deep value ....like Covid drop it went till 8500 intraday ...it was faster down so could recover fast too ....this time it can stay down longer till fundamentals support recovery ...

IMO anything close to 10000-10500 band will make NZX 50 look value and it may stabilise around that ...intra day or short term can undershoot that ...but base formation maybe around that band ....another 10% downside possible ...but need some up retracement first ...Hoops bear rally till 11700 can do that then stage 3 and final capitulation around October !!!


TA still works on a Gross index which reinvests dividends?

[alokdhir]

TA still works on a Gross index which reinvests dividends?

I am not a TA expert ...just gave NZXG levels for easier understanding ...also its a general process exercise ...not looking to be precise

[SailorRob]

Alokdhir..in answer to your question. We are seeing the bears claws and the mauling of investors..Remember the bear is irrational (fundamentally my quote:..The bear can't count)..We maybe be near Bear market Cycle phase 2 which sees the bear calming down for a while and investors will come out of hiding and create a relief rally just how large any relief rally is depends on the news..all you need to know is the market is still a bear and the next tantrum will create a lower low..
Perhaps 4500 is the point where investor relief starts..time will tell.
If a rally starts from 4500 expect disappoints on the way.. Don't expect it to go through many resistance levels. Most bear rallies fail at the next major resistance level (4800)..There are a lot of minor resistance levels above 4800 so the index has to have powerful buyer momentum to push through all those resistances to reach 5050. Although anything is possible it is asking a bit much when in the NZ50C is a bear......that's the statistical result fact


From my post #10716 The descending triangle pattern formed during a down trend is considered a continuation pattern in other words the chances of the NZ50C index breaking out below the triangle pattern has far greater odds than breaking out through the top..
How is this worked out?...Many people do statistical analysis of 10 of thousands and maybe hundreds of thousands of each pattern to determine the odds..One of these people has book and Bulkowski's The Pattern Site (https://thepatternsite.com/) is must see for anyone interested in TA charting.

To get a basic understanding of charting..Charting displays the past up to the present day of all buyers and sellers grouped together..This is the psychological trading behaviour in a graphic form. Strangely most people believe in the written alphabetic form but most dismiss (skeptic) the numeric or visible form ..even though they believe that a picture can be worth a 1000 words.
Predicting in charting is based on the results of 10 or 100 of thousands of past results to obtain a statistical result (probability of a happening).

My chart shows a descending triangle breakout and the statistical probability of after the fall buyers start to become excited again (psychological) and start to influence the market with their buying. with NZ50C that should start around the 4500 level..This is as long as there isn't any sudden bad news...this could be the Stage 2 developing when we see an end to the latest sharp drop and replaced with a few sucker rallies Usually during a Bear Market Cycle (early stage 1 phase) it takes a while before investor denial dissipates ..The media displays peoples feelings so when people are in denial the news is usually more optimistic than it should be and we hear more good news than bad news..
We have reached the point of the Bear Market cycle (late phase 1) where the investors are starting to realise..so the denial is dissipating..the media reacts according and starts to publish more bad news than good news and so the fulfilling prophesy begins with capitulation waves before the commencement of Bear Market phase 2 which sees investor relief after the capitulation waves. On the chart it is easy to see the Bear Market phases because of its vision showing the past behaviour..but when the Bear Market Starts at that time it is impossible to see it as it looks like one of many bull market cycle corrections..It's only when the Bear Market cycle matures towards stage 2 that we get the feeling that the bull might be dead..


All fascinating stuff, so presumably a computer could easily be programmed to recognise these insightful patterns and shapes and lines, and then applying some sophistry it would be able to interpret better than a human. Wall street with it's unlimited genius and capital would be able to design these programs to get the better of the market.

All the computer would need was to have a very slight edge or be right fractionally more than wrong and it would be able to print money.

Or is it just a human in New Zealand using his own eyes and experience that can use these techniques to predict the future price movements?

[SailorRob]

I am not a TA expert ...just gave NZXG levels for easier understanding ...also its a general process exercise ...not looking to be precise


Anyone who can use TA to have any edge over predicting future movements consistently is going to quickly become a Billionaire for obvious reason. So while they're still posting on ST before they make it big learn as much as you can from them.

[bull....]

Food prices were 6.4% higher in April this year than last, with increases across all the food categories measured, Stats NZ says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300586552/food-prices-jump-again--big-restaurant-food-rise-blamed-on-minimum-wage

probably only going to get worse

[Rawz]

Food prices were 6.4% higher in April this year than last, with increases across all the food categories measured, Stats NZ says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300586552/food-prices-jump-again--big-restaurant-food-rise-blamed-on-minimum-wage

probably only going to get worse




2 cucumbers for $7 at pak n save. Saw it and thought a little pricey compared to last year..

[BlackPeter]

2 cucumbers for $7 at pak n save. Saw it and thought a little pricey compared to last year..

Our cucumbers did cost the same as last year and the year before ... one package of seeds goes a long way ;) :

[alokdhir]

2 cucumbers for $7 at pak n save. Saw it and thought a little pricey compared to last year..

Think what all these higher prices will do to sales or revenues ...they will go up with inflation numbers plus some organic growth if company lucky to do that ...Now if any company which can keep margins safe or have high margins to start with will have great EPS growth ...lol Inflation can work for eps growth too ...need inelastic demand company with excellent management to manage margins

[SailorRob]

Think what all these higher prices will do to sales or revenues ...they will go up with inflation numbers plus some organic growth if company lucky to do that ...Now if any company which can keep margins safe or have high margins to start with will have great EPS growth ...lol Inflation can work for eps growth too ...need inelastic demand company with excellent management to manage margins

Yes exactly right, and low capital requirements. Some companies will do well.

[bull....]

Kiwis were being forced to spend more money on essential items and less on other commodities, Milford Asset Management portfolio manager Will Curtayne told AM on Thursday. (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/05/new-zealand-is-driving-towards-recession-experts-warn.html)
He said recession territory was getting dangerously close in New Zealand.
"The risks are going up and it's not a good outlook, and it's grim news."

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/05/cost-of-living-food-prices-remain-6-4-percent-higher-than-last-year-stats-nz.html



The possibility of New Zealand going into recession is "rising by the day", an economist at one of the country's biggest banks has warned.

BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said on Wednesday (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/466909/new-zealand-s-growth-forecast-to-stall-completely-in-2023-bnz) the chance of a soft landing for the economy was fading - and getting dangerously close to recession territory

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/05/new-zealand-is-driving-towards-recession-experts-warn.html


NZX ... timber timber

[iceman]

Kiwis were being forced to spend more money on essential items and less on other commodities, Milford Asset Management portfolio manager Will Curtayne told AM on Thursday. (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/05/new-zealand-is-driving-towards-recession-experts-warn.html)
He said recession territory was getting dangerously close in New Zealand.
"The risks are going up and it's not a good outlook, and it's grim news."

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/05/cost-of-living-food-prices-remain-6-4-percent-higher-than-last-year-stats-nz.html



The possibility of New Zealand going into recession is "rising by the day", an economist at one of the country's biggest banks has warned.

BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said on Wednesday (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/466909/new-zealand-s-growth-forecast-to-stall-completely-in-2023-bnz) the chance of a soft landing for the economy was fading - and getting dangerously close to recession territory

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/05/new-zealand-is-driving-towards-recession-experts-warn.html


NZX ... timber timber

NZ will definitely go into a recession in my view. But that is what NZ voted for. Upwards & onwards

[BlackPeter]

NZ will definitely go into a recession in my view. But that is what NZ voted for. Upwards & onwards

Sure - lets do it.

Having said that - given the alternatives at that time do I still think that the last election managed to pick the lesser evil (even if it seems to get worse from day to day). Let's not blame NZ's voting behaviour - there just was very little talent to pick around ...

But hey, this is not the political thread, so I better shut up.

[JBmurc]

This is the 2nd worst start to a year for the S&P 500 in history>>>> a Better 2H coming up ??

[winner69]

Grant Robertson acknowledged a recession is possible but said New Zealand is well-positioned should one eventuate


Good to know we are well positioned

[JBmurc]

Grant Robertson acknowledged a recession is possible but said New Zealand is well-positioned should one eventuate


Good to know we are well positioned

FED Credit card not maxed out yet ...

[Bobdn]

Look, I know I go on about this but I wonder if this market crash/downtrend/correction signals the demise of ESG funds? I saw a Kiwisaver advert on the telly last night proudly declaring that their product has zero exposure to fossil fuels. Did we reach peak ESG just about the same time that at least some energy (for example) was essential to have in ones portfolio? Even the growth heavy S&P500 has nearly 5 per cent exposure to energy - low for sure but its better than nothing.

Interesting tweet from Brian Sullivan below on this topic.

https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1524464297065201668

[SailorRob]

Look, I know I go on about this but I wonder if this market crash/downtrend/correction signals the demise of ESG funds? I saw a Kiwisaver advert on the telly last night proudly declaring that their product has zero exposure to fossil fuels. Did we reach peak ESG just about the same time that at least some energy (for example) was essential to have in ones portfolio? Even the growth heavy S&P500 has nearly 5 per cent exposure to energy - low for sure but its better than nothing.

Interesting tweet from Brian Sullivan below on this topic.

https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1524464297065201668

You are 100% correct.

ESG had a plan until it got punched in the mouth.

All of that nonsense is out the window now.

[winner69]

You are 100% correct.

ESG had a plan until it got punched in the mouth.

All of that nonsense is out the window now.

ESG reporting has been so flawed instos were starting to not believe in it anyway .....like make believe numbers saying a company was good at ESG but in reality no authenticity / belief in such things

Zillions invested rather unwisely IMHO

[JBmurc]

Saving Capital Markets - coming soon to a theater near you

https://twitter.com/litcapital/status/1524453949964800007?s=20&t=EghSLmpUlxanCiK5WbMjHA

[Muse]

Saving Capital Markets - coming soon to a theater near you

https://twitter.com/litcapital/status/1524453949964800007?s=20&t=EghSLmpUlxanCiK5WbMjHA

LOL! (seriously you have to laugh)

At least the boomers are okay

[bull....]

NZD getting thumped again down nearly a cent --- that imported inflation be going thru the roof next quarter.

[Joshuatree]

Look, I know I go on about this but I wonder if this market crash/downtrend/correction signals the demise of ESG funds? I saw a Kiwisaver advert on the telly last night proudly declaring that their product has zero exposure to fossil fuels. Did we reach peak ESG just about the same time that at least some energy (for example) was essential to have in ones portfolio? Even the growth heavy S&P500 has nearly 5 per cent exposure to energy - low for sure but its better than nothing.

Interesting tweet from Brian Sullivan below on this topic.

https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1524464297065201668

Yes,unfort a greenwashing spin.And yet it's many years before alternative energy gets any where near replacing oil,coal,gas and they are far more expensive with enormous amounts of energy required to make them.Maybe Nuclear power plants are the only hope . A decade of under investment in exploration by the major oil companies has really turbo charged the undersupply of energy for the foreseeable future imo.

My investment in energy stocks is protecting my( sold down in last few months ) portfolio big time.My small investment in green energy pumped hydro and solar down 50 % atp.

[see weed]

LOL! (seriously you have to laugh)

At least the boomers are okay
I am not laughing. Was your father not in that landing craft getting shot up.:t_down:

[Muse]

I am not laughing. Was your father not in that landing craft getting shot up.:t_down:



Fair enough. Sorry, I did not mean to cause offence re WW2 by finding the post humorous. Only trying to take solace and share in humour re the bear market like in March, to make it more passable. Never met my grandad who was shotdown over japan…took photos of bombing damage during the raids.

[Tomtom]

Just as well NZ inflation is so hard to calculate we only do it quarterly So well live with 6.9% for a few more months ….cool eh If StatsNZ got themselves together they could probably just about update the basket and publish inflation data in real-time based on card transaction data.

[Joshuatree]

Yes,unfort a greenwashing spin.And yet it's many years before alternative energy gets any where near replacing oil,coal,gas and they are far more expensive with enormous amounts of energy required to make them.Maybe Nuclear power plants are the only hope . A decade of under investment in exploration by the major oil companies has really turbo charged the undersupply of energy for the foreseeable future imo.

My investment in energy stocks is protecting my( sold down in last few months ) portfolio big time.My small investment in green energy pumped hydro and solar down 50 % atp.

Anyone in profit with their new green energy investments?

[Panda-NZ-]

In a place with no safety net unemployment can be particuarly bad.

Maybe this is partly why US authorities are reluctant to deal with inflation (at the cost of jobs).

[kiora]

For those unbelievers

" We believe that higher energy prices will, over the medium term, accelerate electrification and the march towards renewables by lowering the barriers to entry (by making alternative forms of energy more compelling cost-wise). Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we have also seen huge investment into renewables projects as well as green hydrogen. This strategy provides the Fund with exposure to what we believe will be a dominant theme over the next decade."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976520272/tricky-turbulent-transition.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+12+May+ 2022

[Ricky-bobby]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-shrinks-march-grows-08-q1-2022-05-12/

[Tomtom]

S&P500 futures down again pre-opening.

Edit to add: PPI over forcast as well unfortunately. Sticky wicket this inflation business.

[JBmurc]

For those unbelievers

" We believe that higher energy prices will, over the medium term, accelerate electrification and the march towards renewables by lowering the barriers to entry (by making alternative forms of energy more compelling cost-wise). Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we have also seen huge investment into renewables projects as well as green hydrogen. This strategy provides the Fund with exposure to what we believe will be a dominant theme over the next decade."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976520272/tricky-turbulent-transition.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+12+May+ 2022

Yes for sure Pure EV + Hybrid plug-ins interest from NZ buyers has gone threw the roof .. $3lt+ fuel the kicker for many ..

[bull....]

sea of red again on stock markets ... still plenty to go in this bear

nzd dollar crushed again

anyway i see people are starting selling there winners now too ie apple tanking this week , other sector safe spots like utilities / staples , energy will all follow soon tooo a degree
guess it wont be long before the bear engulf the whole market as they do

wonder when the etf redemtion rush will commence ?

[Habits]

sea of red again on stock markets ... still plenty to go in this bear

nzd dollar crushed again

anyway i see people are starting selling there winners now too ie apple tanking this week , other sector safe spots like utilities / staples , energy will all follow soon tooo a degree
guess it wont be long before the bear engulf the whole market as they do

wonder when the etf redemtion rush will commence ?

DJI is now UP 450pts from its day lows (Still down a bit) .. hard to keep up with

[winner69]

@jasongoepfert
Today, more than 29% of issues on the NYSE have hit a 52-week low. On the Nasdaq, it's more than 33%.

There have been only 18 similar days since 1984.

The S&P 500 showed a loss a year later once, for -0.2%. Its median return was +32.0%.

[bull....]

DJI is now UP 450pts from its day lows (Still down a bit) .. hard to keep up with

normal day when the vix is so high. anyway the rally at the close was algo driven on a fed comment

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-11/stocks-pressured-by-risks-from-elevated-inflation-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-asia

[Balance]

@jasongoepfert
Today, more than 29% of issues on the NYSE have hit a 52-week low. On the Nasdaq, it's more than 33%.

There have been only 18 similar days since 1984.

The S&P 500 showed a loss a year later once, for -0.2%. Its median return was +32.0%.

And there are going to be more as the Robinhood punters panic away from the market.

How did a stock like Netflix hit $690 in Oct 21 to drop now to $174 (minus 75%)?

Irrational exuberance!

Bring the CRASH ON!!!!

[JBmurc]

sea of red again on stock markets ... still plenty to go in this bear

nzd dollar crushed again

anyway i see people are starting selling there winners now too ie apple tanking this week , other sector safe spots like utilities / staples , energy will all follow soon tooo a degree
guess it wont be long before the bear engulf the whole market as they do

wonder when the etf redemtion rush will commence ?

OIL in AUD and NZD up 50-60% up on the start of the year >>> huge profits for producers like say NZO.. any weakness is a Brilliant buying IMHO..

Some idea of issues we have ...need to find the latest US debt to balance sheet etc

[bull....]

And there are going to be more as the Robinhood punters panic away from the market.

How did a stock like Netflix hit $690 in Oct 21 to drop now to $174 (minus 75%)?

Irrational exuberance!

Bring the CRASH ON!!!!

think winner in the buy and hold for ever camp?

[Balance]

think winner in the buy and hold for ever camp?

W69 is a seasoned player unlike the reef fishes attracted into the market in the last 2 years because of the easy returns from the prolific $$$$ printing by governments.

Going to be plenty of tasty treats in the months ahead but we need CAPITULATION - sooner the better.

[bull....]

futures selling off now
cnbc quoting powell just said a soft landing may be hard to acheive.
guess if he achieves one he be a legend as not many if any fed people have ever achieved one in a tightening cycle

[BlackPeter]

Anyone in profit with their new green energy investments?

Actually - Infratil does not look that bad, doesn't it?

[BlackPeter]

Yes for sure Pure EV + Hybrid plug-ins interest from NZ buyers has gone threw the roof .. $3lt+ fuel the kicker for many ..

Petrol still ways too cheap.

Too many idiots still can afford to cruise with their gas guzzlers night after night through town. Boyracers still burning fuel and diesel to annoy and endanger the neighbourhood, kids can still afford to endanger and annoy the neighbourhoods with their illegal and dangerous motocross activities ... and the queue of big gas guzzling four wheel drives picking up kids from school (and bringing them home on sealed roads) seems to get longer rather than shorter.

Waiting for $5 per litre, maybe this might settle it?

[thegreatestben]

I don't think $5 per litre of fuel is going to help with the cost of living. Everything you and I consume is transported via trucks that consume diesel fuel and that's not going to change in the next 20+ years.

[BlackPeter]

I don't think $5 per litre of fuel is going to help with the cost of living. Everything you and I consume is transported via trucks that consume diesel fuel and that's not going to change in the next 20+ years.

You are right ... though 20 years is a long window ... things might well change until then.

Anyway - currently too many people clearly have still too many resources at their avail - the fact that they waste these resources and even use them to destroy the planet instead of using them to survive is clear evidence.

But hey - maybe its just evidence for the stupidity of the human race, which Einstein said is unlimited ... ?

[bull....]

nzx not having a good day so far i have initial supports at around 10700 and then around covid lows but nothing is assumed in this environment thats for sure , i mean bear market

[SailorRob]

Petrol still ways too cheap.

Too many idiots still can afford to cruise with their gas guzzlers night after night through town. Boyracers still burning fuel and diesel to annoy and endanger the neighbourhood, kids can still afford to endanger and annoy the neighbourhoods with their illegal and dangerous motocross activities ... and the queue of big gas guzzling four wheel drives picking up kids from school (and bringing them home on sealed roads) seems to get longer rather than shorter.

Waiting for $5 per litre, maybe this might settle it?

We're in the middle of a damn ice age. The holocene. The ground freezes 60 inches deep in Chicago...

How much hydrocarbon is burnt for warming?

Is global warming, excuse me, climate change, about the environment or global socialism?

[mike2020]

I think it's really about pollution and the toxic environment we are creating. Apparently they have recently discovered microplastics can bridge the membranes from blood stream to brain. Air land and sea all under threat. Nothing to do with CO2.

[nztx]

nzx not having a good day so far i have initial supports at around 10700 and then around covid lows but nothing is assumed in this environment thats for sure , i mean bear market


If this is what Friday the 13th brings, what does Monday have in Store ? ;)

Even Crypto has had a huge slump - $320 Bil

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/300587509/crypto-market-loses-320-billion-in-single-day

Might be a time to be a fair quotient cashed up probably in something other than the local fiat :)

With the way confidence levels locally are, the guts could drop out of the Kiwi $ as well ;)

[SailorRob]

I think it's really about pollution and the toxic environment we are creating. Apparently they have recently discovered microplastics can bridge the membranes from blood stream to brain. Air land and sea all under threat. Nothing to do with CO2.

I'm bloody terrified. My only hope is that there will be a tax that can save us.

[Panda-NZ-]

I think it's really about pollution and the toxic environment we are creating. Apparently they have recently discovered microplastics can bridge the membranes from blood stream to brain. Air land and sea all under threat. Nothing to do with CO2.

I like to stick to either steel or glass for drinks. stops the plastic shedding into me.

[Tomtom]

futures selling off now
cnbc quoting powell just said a soft landing may be hard to acheive. Reserve Banks had one job...

[Bjauck]

Petrol still ways too cheap.

Too many idiots still can afford to cruise with their gas guzzlers night after night through town. Boyracers still burning fuel and diesel to annoy and endanger the neighbourhood, kids can still afford to endanger and annoy the neighbourhoods with their illegal and dangerous motocross activities ... and the queue of big gas guzzling four wheel drives picking up kids from school (and bringing them home on sealed roads) seems to get longer rather than shorter.

Waiting for $5 per litre, maybe this might settle it? People can still afford to take their gas guzzlers to their bachs at the weekend, and Aucklanders are looking forward to flying down to the South Island this Winter for ski weekends after commuting in the SUV in queues of traffic for work.

[Bjauck]

I think it's really about pollution and the toxic environment we are creating. Apparently they have recently discovered microplastics can bridge the membranes from blood stream to brain. Air land and sea all under threat. Nothing to do with CO2. Apparently hydrocarbon pollution and other pollutants can cause brain shrinkage and increase dementia risk.

https://www.britannica.com/story/air-pollution-may-contribute-to-alzheimers-and-dementia-risk
air-pollution-may-contribute-to-alzheimers-and-dementia-risk (https://www.britannica.com/story/air-pollution-may-contribute-to-alzheimers-and-dementia-risk)

[winner69]

The vomiting camel pattern

[couta1]

Won't be a Black Monday this coming week, could be black again by Wednesday though.

[Balance]

The vomiting camel pattern

Disappointing that this market is simply not crashing.

Need to get it over and done with.

Bring it on!

[couta1]

Disappointing that this market is simply not crashing.

Need to get it over and done with.

Bring it on! Doubt it will happen just a prolonged period of volatility, you had your crash when Covid first took hold in 2020.

[alokdhir]

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-today-51652434109?mod=mw_latestnews

Central Banks becoming sensitive to Growth Concerns not just Inflation ...as expected ...its not going to be too High Rates as market discounted ...As its just not possible in current scenario ...So Bears need be vary once market readjusts rates expectations

Its a difficult situation for all especially Central Bankers ...they need fight Inflation but not at the cost of big recession causing social unrest in this Fragile world

[winner69]

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-today-51652434109?mod=mw_latestnews

Central Banks becoming sensitive to Growth Concerns not just Inflation ...as expected ...its not going to be too High Rates as market discounted ...As its just not possible in current scenario ...So Bears need be vary once market readjusts rates expectations

Its a difficult situation for all especially Central Bankers ...they need fight Inflation but not at the cost of big recession causing social unrest in this Fragile world

Sri Lanka lead indicator of what might happen all over the world?

[alokdhir]

Sri Lanka lead indicator of what might happen all over the world?

Thats extreme bad management and external influences ...Western world is more immune to such fiascos as our officials and politicians are held more accountable and they do their jobs relatively better

[alokdhir]

Banks are expecting Housing market to start turning upwards from second half of 2023 ....

From that I expect stock market NZX ...should stabilise in 2022 second half ...with upwards bias or decline arrested .

From Hoop's TA expertise angle Bear rally till 11700 is very much on cards ...what it does after that will decide decline arrested or not ...Will it make new low after one made yesterday of below 4500 NZC index will be worth watching

[Balance]

Doubt it will happen just a prolonged period of volatility, you had your crash when Covid first took hold in 2020.

And wasn’t that a good one?

There are some crashes around but not of the type which I would invest in - Netflix down 75% for eg.

[BlackPeter]

Thats extreme bad management and external influences ...Western world is more immune to such fiascos as our officials and politicians are held more accountable and they do their jobs relatively better

I wouldn't say "immune" ... a number of right wing western politicians are working hard to remove accountablility for their crimes (BoJo and Trump spring to mind). They clearly are pushing hard to get us into the same mess in which many eastern countries like Russia, Turkey, North Korea, Sri Lanka and e.g. the Philipines (to name just a small number of kleptocracies) are already drowning. Powerful crooks running their countries without any checks and balances. There are a lot of idiots in the Western world supporting these criminals to get us into the same mess.

[mike2020]

I can't remember where I read it but there is a huge story behind dirty Russian money buying large parts of London and how easy it is/was to buy approval.

[Panda-NZ-]

I can't remember where I read it but there is a huge story behind dirty Russian money buying large parts of London and how easy it is/was to buy approval.

Some EU countries offer citizenship for cash (who wouldn't take that up under normal circumstances).

Though they might be poisoned if they bail on Russia.

[Balance]

I can't remember where I read it but there is a huge story behind dirty Russian money buying large parts of London and how easy it is/was to buy approval.

Not just dirty Russian money - dirty money from everywhere (Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America and Australia). Been like that for decades - started off as providing political asylum to blatant money laundering.

The Swiss are of course the master at it but they are more discreet.

[Tomtom]

Down we go again on the S&P500, seems the FED want to be seen to be taking their inflation mandate with some degree of seriousness.

Bank if England...not so bothered it seems.

[bull....]

:scared: typical bear market.

[bull....]

UK inflation jumps to 40-year high of 9% as food and energy prices spiral
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/uk-inflation-jumps-to-40-year-high-of-9percent-as-food-and-energy-prices-spiral.html

[bull....]

Skipping meals and shrinking portions — Brits are being warned of ‘apocalyptic’ food price rises
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/skipping-meals-brits-are-being-warned-of-apocalyptic-food-price-rises.html

not just the uk skipping meals now. many people many countries doing the same. wait till next yr :scared:

[winner69]

SPX down more than 4% ….that’s a bad day ….even worse than being 3% down

Suppose NZX will be down today

[Balance]

SPX down more than 4% ….that’s a bad day ….even worse than being 3% down

Suppose NZX will be down today

Good stuff!

Crash coming and the sharper, faster & deeper, the better!

Let’s do this!