Black Monday

[NeverQuestion]

Agreed. Plus ignoring the Macro Economic Situation is always a bad idea.

Reason why the market was bad Last month wasn't because everyone woke up on the wrong side of bed... It is because the Fed and many other countries are raising interest rates.

Cheap Money AKA lowering rates = Higher Stock/Bonds/Cryto/Houses/Car Prices - People take out debt and spend
Expensive Money AKA Raising rates = Lower Stock/Bonds/Cryto/Houses/Car Prices - People stop spending and start focusing on debt repayments

Beware of the Dead Cat bounce... Repent while you still can!

[bull....]

Words of a fool.

Tell that to Bershire Hathaway shareholders or long term investors in the tracker funds in the US markets.

thats why i had a laugh at the end . as for buffett he got so much cash he doesnt know what to buy at these high stockmarket prices ... think about it

[Balance]

thats why i had a laugh at the end . as for buffett he got so much cash he doesnt know what to buy at these high stockmarket prices ... think about it

$10,000 invested with Warren Buffett when he started off is worth $65m today.

That’s what time in the market with the right investment can achieve.

Don’t change the subject matter, bull.

[Joshuatree]

Oil consumption in 2019 was 99.7 million barrels per day. In 2021 it was 96.90 million, In the link the EIA estimate this year it will be 100.5 million. So we could be close.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

Fuel poverty happening now.53% rise in energy costs in Britain.Oil companies pressured to go green,banks limiting loans,exploration decreased,less discoveries and it's a long time before green energy takes up the slack.Same with coal,gas.Perfect storm unfort.Thats why I have all energy picks in the ASX share comp.

[Bobdn]

$10,000 invested with Warren Buffett when he started off is worth $65m today.

That’s what time in the market with the right investment can achieve.

Don’t change the subject matter, bull.


But just to be clear the only time "time in the market" can't be guaranteed to work is with a just a few single stocks and commodities, according to Rich Bernstein (I tried to find the video but couldn't - might have been on Wealthtrack). So for time in market to work, one must really be in "the market" ie broadly diversified whole market funds (or ones that represent big chunks of the market) across the world. Simplicity; Kernelwealth; Smartshares/Superlife; Hatch for ishares and vanguard or whatever. There are plenty of options out there now. I spend maybe 5 minutes a year on my investments (maybe less). I just keep an eye on my 80/20 split and will rebalance occasionally.

I know we all know this but it's good to say it out loud occasionally. Time in the market with Polaroid or Kodak didn't save you lol. And Polaroid was considered the Apple of it's day.

https://www.wired.com/2012/10/instant-the-story-of-polaroid/

[winner69]

Saw this thsi morning --- sounded good but probably means nothing

If Milton Friedman were alive today, he'd be shocked at how deeply his failed and nonsensical ideology has taken hold. I mean, entirely and unshakably gripped global economic policy. What a sickness.

[winner69]

Tobin's Q Ratio at elevated levels - S&P500 needs to fall a lot to get back to near average levels

[mcdongle]

Fuel poverty happening now.53% rise in energy costs in Britain.Oil companies pressured to go green,banks limiting loans,exploration decreased,less discoveries and it's a long time before green energy takes up the slack.Same with coal,gas.Perfect storm unfort.Thats why I have all energy picks in the ASX share comp.

Ah.... but don't forget Gas is now a green energy according to the EU.. :)

Also Opec cant pump the quotas they are setting . So good times ahead not

[Joshuatree]

Long tale for oil coal and gas. Great if you are holding.A hedge to my poorly performing green stocks.

[winner69]

Long tale for oil coal and gas. Great if you are holding.A hedge to my poorly performing green stocks.

Overnight news:

'Shell profits surge to $20bn as oil companies cash in on energy crisis. Oil and gas giant raises dividend and plans share buyback worth billions after what it called a momentous year’.

[Balance]

US markets futures up as Amazon, Snap & Pinterest reported good earnings after market close.

Amazon up 15% in after market trades.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-earnings-162246834.html

Will the headlines scream Amazon up US$211billion, making Jeff Bezos even richer?

[nztx]

US markets futures up as Amazon, Snap & Pinterest reported good earnings after market close.

Amazon up 15% in after market trades.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-earnings-162246834.html

Will the headlines scream Amazon up US$211billion, making Jeff Bezos even richer?


Or will they say Amazon are planning oncoming to Auckland to keep Costco company & start fencing out
the NZ Market ? :)

[bull....]

actually didnt think amazon result that good , slow down evident in parts of there business , just like meta
so the whole fang thing is starting to unravel i reckon.
fang propelled the market up big time last yr and with all the concentration in these 5 odd stocks :scared: by funds etc might get ugly at some stage


what about oil wow over 90 now aiming for $100 ( causing inflation to rise more ) and US bonds big jump no good for stocks :scared: yukky times for long term investors ahead i reckon

[Rawz]

Meta will be the buy of the decade soon. Bottom draw stuff. TikTok will be like snap soon. Keep asking your nieces and nephews what platform they use. Or ask the grandkids. They are the best guide. After FB listed it fell lots on concerns it wouldn’t be able to generate ad revenue via mobile vs desktop. It found a way. FB run by a very smart lizard 🦎

[alokdhir]

actually didnt think amazon result that good , slow down evident in parts of there business , just like meta
so the whole fang thing is starting to unravel i reckon.
fang propelled the market up big time last yr and with all the concentration in these 5 odd stocks :scared: by funds etc might get ugly at some stage


what about oil wow over 90 now aiming for $100 ( causing inflation to rise more ) and US bonds big jump no good for stocks :scared: yukky times for long term investors ahead i reckon

Just to let u know as it seems u keep thinking long term investors think and behave like u ...long term investors in good stocks do not sweat too much about such cycles ...they know things are cyclic and they stay invested ...Nothing will be remain " Ugly " for ever ...eg I am invested in FPH / MFT since 2010 ...saw many cycles of rates and what not ...but stocks kept making newer highs ...imagine 2.42 to 30 and 6.46 to 88 ...of course saw many ups and downs and many advises like yours to get out and save yourself ...but investors remain invested ...maybe this time is different ? Is that u trying to say to long term investors ...or u just warning about FANG stock investors ? Not very clear to me ...

[mfd]

Just to let u know as it seems u keep thinking long term investors think and behave like u ...long term investors in good stocks do not sweat too much about such cycles ...they know things are cyclic and they stay invested ...Nothing will be remain " Ugly " for ever ...eg I am invested in FPH / MFT since 2010 ...saw many cycles of rates and what not ...but stocks kept making newer highs ...imagine 2.42 to 30 and 6.46 to 88 ...of course saw many ups and downs and many advises like yours to get out and save yourself ...but investors remain invested ...maybe this time is different ? Is that u trying to say to long term investors ...or u just warning about FANG stock investors ? Not very clear to me ...

We've essentially had one enormous bull market since 2010 - this has been the exception, not the norm.

[bull....]

We've essentially had one enormous bull market since 2010 - this has been the exception, not the norm.

exactly like all other bull markets in history prices will revert to the mean at some stage.

[Rawz]

bull, time to update your name to bear :)

[bull....]

Just to let u know as it seems u keep thinking long term investors think and behave like u ...long term investors in good stocks do not sweat too much about such cycles ...they know things are cyclic and they stay invested ...Nothing will be remain " Ugly " for ever ...eg I am invested in FPH / MFT since 2010 ...saw many cycles of rates and what not ...but stocks kept making newer highs ...imagine 2.42 to 30 and 6.46 to 88 ...of course saw many ups and downs and many advises like yours to get out and save yourself ...but investors remain invested ...maybe this time is different ? Is that u trying to say to long term investors ...or u just warning about FANG stock investors ? Not very clear to me ...

i do both long term and short term , just not much of either at the moment. the only really long term stock i have now is MHI which i have held since 1995 most others have sold. i buy low ride the trends sell and repeat. so in effect i time the cycles if you like.

[Balance]

bull, time to update your name to bear :)

Thought you would have figured out by now that that bull…. = bull shxt?

[Greekwatchdog]

Thought you would have figured out by now that that bull…. = bull shxt?

LMFAO!! Bingo

[bull....]

Thought you would have figured out by now that that bull…. = bull shxt?

hlg $10 was the loud call from balance why bull was saying get out at 7+

disgruntled people will always throw insults around.

anyway thats it for another week :) enjoy the weekend

[Joshuatree]

actually didnt think amazon result that good , slow down evident in parts of there business , just like meta
so the whole fang thing is starting to unravel i reckon.
fang propelled the market up big time last yr and with all the concentration in these 5 odd stocks :scared: by funds etc might get ugly at some stage


what about oil wow over 90 now aiming for $100 ( causing inflation to rise more ) and US bonds big jump no good for stocks :scared: yukky times for long term investors ahead i reckon

Yes the rising cost of energy(this will last for years imo,green energy a long way from taking up the slack) is causing fuel poverty,food production costs will go up,inflation ,wages etc etc.Ive sold my fph (bought @re $3) ,RMD too as the shift to Value stocks occurs and future cashflow values are being discounted more.But I also need more cash for an investment outside of Equities so the time is right for me.

[Balance]

hlg $10 was the loud call from balance why bull was saying get out at 7+

disgruntled people will always throw insults around.

anyway thats it for another week :) enjoy the weekend

Yes, and I should be so smart as to predict the delta & omicron outbreak as well?

I added to my HLG position, confident in my analysis and continuing to enjoy the huge dividend income I derive from this most outstanding of stock.

Meanwhile, whatever happened with your ATM trade last year? It was going to bounce when it reported, remember? :t_up:

[Balance]

Our resident BS artist shouting gloom from the top of the roof in April & May 2020 (sample posts) when markets started recovering from the cratering in March 2020 :


im still not convinced everything is all rosy (economy reality vrs stockmarket reality) to go long term stock positions so remain mostly cash and just trading in and out short term stuff. the fed can print all the money they like but none of us know what implications this has long term.


even buffet see no value in the market even after the declines

Berkshire Hathaway’s first-quarter earnings revealed that Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett built up the conglomerate’s cash fortress and only bought small portions of stock during the violent rout of equity markets due to the coronavirus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-built-up-cash-bought-only-small-amounts-of-stock-during-the-stock-market-rout.html

virtual meeting on now with buffet

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-live-updates.html

[bull....]

that was one hot inflation print just released. fed well behind the curve :scared: still stick to my view there going to be a surprise.

anyway asx reporting underway in earnest next week see ya next mth

[BlackPeter]

that was one hot inflation print just released. fed well behind the curve :scared: still stick to my view there going to be a surprise.

anyway asx reporting underway in earnest next week see ya next mth

I guess given its a surprise I recon you don't want to share with us what it will be? Rates up (would makes sense - i.e. not really a surprise) or down (hey, this really would be a surprise ...).

[Habits]

Min wage up 6 percent from April, no heads up... dog chasing tail scenario. Also never mind that inflation was 5 perc and not 6. This increase adds to the inflation story.

Now those businesses in the covid firing line and on the brink just wont come back. As a shareholder, many of our companies just stopped paying divies as they needed cash, other companies were cowered into not paying shareholders or claiming legitimate money. Some have still not returned to precovid DPS. We need a shd union

[Scrunch]

that was one hot inflation print just released. fed well behind the curve :scared: still stick to my view there going to be a surprise.

anyway asx reporting underway in earnest next week see ya next mth

The opening para's from the Wall Street Journal:
"A relentless surge in U.S. inflation reached another four-decade high last month, accelerating to a 7.5% annual rate as strong consumer demand collided with pandemic-related supply disruptions.

The Labor Department on Thursday said the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—in January reached its highest level since February 1982, when compared with the same month a year ago. That put inflation above December’s 7% annual rate and well above the 1.8% annual rate for inflation in 2019 ahead of the pandemic."

[alokdhir]

The opening para's from the Wall Street Journal:
"A relentless surge in U.S. inflation reached another four-decade high last month, accelerating to a 7.5% annual rate as strong consumer demand collided with pandemic-related supply disruptions.

The Labor Department on Thursday said the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—in January reached its highest level since February 1982, when compared with the same month a year ago. That put inflation above December’s 7% annual rate and well above the 1.8% annual rate for inflation in 2019 ahead of the pandemic."

I think they hit the nail on head . Red hot inflation will die easier if pandemic disruptions go away and mellowing consumer demand with higher rates reduces money supply

[BlackPeter]

...

Now those businesses in the covid firing line and on the brink just wont come back. As a shareholder, many of our companies just stopped paying divies as they needed cash, other companies were cowered into not paying shareholders or claiming legitimate money. Some have still not returned to precovid DPS. We need a shd union

Isn't this what the NZSA is about?

https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/

If you are not a member - just join them and support them!

[mcdongle]

Now talk of an emergency rate hike by the FED...

[Habits]

Isn't this what the NZSA is about?

https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/

If you are not a member - just join them and support them!

Good point thanks! An effective voice

[Entrep]

Don't fight the fed, up or down

[bull....]

I guess given its a surprise I recon you don't want to share with us what it will be? Rates up (would makes sense - i.e. not really a surprise) or down (hey, this really would be a surprise ...).

oh just woke up ill make these my last posts before the weekend and the busy weeks coming up reading results etc
maybe the surprise be how much money you lose going forward :scared:

[BlackPeter]

oh just woke up ill make these my last posts before the weekend and the busy weeks coming up reading results etc
maybe the surprise be how much money you lose going forward :scared:

You recommend to buy BEAR? That's not you bull, isn't it?

[Panda-NZ-]

I wonder what the sheiks are doing with all their oil money.

Probably funding more tribal religious wars and lambourghinis.

[nztx]

I wonder what the sheiks are doing with all their oil money.

Probably funding more tribal religious wars and lambourghinis.


Probably not sending it to NZ - that's for sure :)

Good answer ? ;)

[mcdongle]

Flattening Yemen.

[nztx]

Lots of Red on the NZX boards so far today - a few solitary sparks resisting the tide though

[Balance]

You should not own stocks unless you know and acknowledge this critical fact :

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZSevku3A2/

[dabsman]

I like the next tiktok that popped up after that was "alcohol is happiness". Fitting

[Muse]

You should not own stocks unless you know and acknowledge this critical fact :

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZSevku3A2/

Sage words, those. He’s a good speaker too

[Muse]

just having a peruse of the latest MPS statement - particularly the databook.
I see the RBNZ is now forecasting the OCR to rise above 3% in mid 2023 (zero surprises) but then persist and peak at quarterly average of 3.35% in mid 2024.
both westpac and anz forecasting 3% peaks mid 2023.
so about 0.35% higher than consensus forecasts . see some of the fx pairings had a wee bump as a result

[bull....]

just a quick pop in till next week thought i better mention the sp 500 has broken its neckline last night of a head and shoulder pattern , one of the most reliable patterns there is. tonght might confirm with a big dip

[root]

Good time to be holding Cash, probably pay to be watching the global fundamentals rather than the TA at the moment

13558

[Beagle]

Have been 70%+ in cash and short term deposits since early January.

[Blue Horseshoe]

Sold all shares yesterday, followed my gut, close call.

[pierre]

I've been investing in the share market since I was 16 - that's around half a century ago. I've always been an investor and only rarely a trader - that's because I've never been any good at picking the highs or the lows in the market.

I've built up a substantial portfolio that sometimes is worth an amazing amount on paper - and sometimes (like right now) - it's worth quite a bit less. My portfolio is however, even today, still worth much, much more than my initial investment.

I enjoy watching my portfolio value increase though it's definitely not so much fun watching it plunge as it has over the past month or so. However, I've been through periods like this before and the market has always recovered - and gone higher.

I'm extremely fortunate because I don't need to draw on any of the capital I have invested. My shares pay dividends (sometimes more, sometimes less) that are always way more than sufficient to meet my annual outgoings and pay for lots of overseas travel (when that's possible). I also maintain a cash balance equivalent to around 4 years of those expenses as a further buffer against the downturns in the market.

I will be sleeping well tonight, not worrying about what's happening on share markets and planning some travel for later this year (not to Ukraine though).

I feel deeply for the people of Ukraine. I watched a Netflix documentary last night on their battle to oust their pro-Russian President in 2014 and know that they now have an extremely difficult period ahead of them as Putin wreaks his ultimate revenge. NATO will probably just make lots of noise but take little real action and sadly, I expect Ukraine will lose it's independence.

Once Ukraine is annexed to Russia, the world will ultimately return to some semblance of "normality," interest rate dramas will eventually subside, hopefully Trump wont be re-elected in the US - and at some point share markets will recover.

Congratulations to those who cashed out recently - I hope you can pick the right time to return to the market.

[Joshuatree]

Putin threatening anyone tempted to interfere or create threats to our country should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history" etc on CNN.
So the transparency of the Butcher there for all to see .

[Panda-NZ-]

I hope the oligarchs like eating turnips and building mansions with concrete. It's probably all they will be able to get under sanctions.

[Panda-NZ-]

5 russian aircraft shot down.

Russia is of course denying it like they covered up their corona numbers.

[Joshuatree]

40- 50% of Europe's gas supplies come from Russia and it's Winter .

[Mr Slothbear]

5 russian aircraft shot down.

Russia is of course denying it like they covered up their corona numbers.

hope Ukraine add 4 zeroes to that number

[Muse]

The video leading the NY Times is shocking - particularly when you watch with sound
https://www.nytimes.com/

peacekeepers, eh? the west was lying about russia's intentions, eh?

Truly disgusting. As all war is.

[Beagle]

Putin threatening anyone tempted to interfere or create threats to our country should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history" etc on CNN.
So the transparency of the Butcher there for all to see .

I think we all know he's referring to nuclear weapons of which they have the largest arsenal of any country in the world and of course if he uses them we know what comes next. It feels "absolutely wonderful" to be living under the threat of global nuclear war. I was too young to understand the threat of the Cuban Missile crisis...nearly didn't make it to my first birthday https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis. Here we are 60 years later with the same overt threat of global nuclear war that's never been more starkly portrayed in my lifetime since 1962...but I can't bring myself to indulge in more than a few minutes self pity because my heart goes out to all the poor Ukrainians facing a heinous invasion, massive loss of life and injury and a very uncertain future for the survivors. Truly heartbreaking stuff.
Its a truly black day.

[Muse]

I think we all know he's referring to nuclear weapons of which they have the largest arsenal of any country in the world and of course if he uses them we know what comes next. It feels "absolutely wonderful" to be living under the threat of global nuclear war. I was too young to understand the threat of the Cuban Missile crisis...nearly didn't make it to my first birthday https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis. Here we are 60 years later with the same overt threat of global nuclear war that's never been more starkly portrayed in my lifetime since 1962...but I can't bring myself to indulge in more than a few minutes self pity because my heart goes out to all the poor Ukrainians facing a heinous invasion, massive loss of life and injury and a very uncertain future for the survivors. Truly heartbreaking stuff.
Its a truly black day.

amen

those poor buggers

[Waltzing]

just like peace in our time 1938-39...

how the west under estimated a butcher ..a mad man...

sell off could last weeks

[Beagle]

just like peace in our time 1938-39...

how the west under estimated a butcher ..a mad man...

sell off could last weeks

Yeah...good time to have already hoarded lots of cash...something both you and I have been saying for quite some time now.
No hurry to deploy that cash is there ! This is the black swan event many saw coming but very few took proactive steps to protect their portfolio from.

[Joshuatree]

Gold price $1968
Dow futures down 800 ATM
Europe down 4 to 5 % mostly
Brent oil re $105
Bitcoin DOWN
Food commodities plus 5/% all atpit

[Mr Slothbear]

I know via Keith woodfords excellent blog that NZ exports both dairy and kiwifruit to Russia, i doubt it would have any material impact on fonterra or Seeka/Zespri if NZ imposed sanctions on these items to russia. It may have a benefit for NZ timber industry as Russia has a relatively large share of world timber supply and this would be curtailed increasing prices for NZ logs I’d imagine.

if USA gives Russia the ‘Huawei’ treatment it will be very interesting to see how they manage without iphones, google, ARM instruction sets, intel/AMD cpus and so on or if this will lead to a daigou market for Russians to buy iphones in places like China to send home to their families.

this will also be inflationary on a global scale so might see higher interest rates sooner

[BlackPeter]

40- 50% of Europe's gas supplies come from Russia and it's Winter .

True - but its a mild winter in Europe and the reserves should be enough to bring them through to spring.

Look at the bright side - this is the most effective measure I can think off to wean the western world quickly off carbon based energies! Nobody will want to rely anymore on anything Russian based no matter whether its oil or gas - and the only other thing these guys seem to be able to produce these days is aggression nobody needs ..

[JohnnyTheHorse]

As I expected, big red open that was immediately bought up. Big money creating fear amongst retail getting them to sell, then pile into puts and short positions. Big money then pumps it to obliterate them. Too predictable.

[Marilyn Munroe]

just like peace in our time 1938-39...

how the west under estimated a butcher ..a mad man...

sell off could last weeks

Adolf Hitlers biggest mistake was invading Poland.

He already had the Sudatenland Czeckoslovakia and Austria under his belt. If he had stopped there the democracies would have tolerated him and he could have gone on being a nasty bastard for years. Instead he ended up with a bullet in his head in a bunker.

Is the Ukrainian invasion Putins downfall?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Joshuatree]

A Sharsies novice was saying good buying today.:t_up:

[Bjauck]

I've been investing in the share market since I was 16 - that's around half a century ago. I've always been an investor and only rarely a trader - that's because I've never been any good at picking the highs or the lows in the market.

I've built up a substantial portfolio that sometimes is worth an amazing amount on paper - and sometimes (like right now) - it's worth quite a bit less. My portfolio is however, even today, still worth much, much more than my initial investment.

I enjoy watching my portfolio value increase though it's definitely not so much fun watching it plunge as it has over the past month or so. However, I've been through periods like this before and the market has always recovered - and gone higher.

I'm extremely fortunate because I don't need to draw on any of the capital I have invested. My shares pay dividends (sometimes more, sometimes less) that are always way more than sufficient to meet my annual outgoings and pay for lots of overseas travel (when that's possible). I also maintain a cash balance equivalent to around 4 years of those expenses as a further buffer against the downturns in the market.

I will be sleeping well tonight, not worrying about what's happening on share markets and planning some travel for later this year (not to Ukraine though).

I feel deeply for the people of Ukraine. I watched a Netflix documentary last night on their battle to oust their pro-Russian President in 2014 and know that they now have an extremely difficult period ahead of them as Putin wreaks his ultimate revenge. NATO will probably just make lots of noise but take little real action and sadly, I expect Ukraine will lose it's independence.

Once Ukraine is annexed to Russia, the world will ultimately return to some semblance of "normality," interest rate dramas will eventually subside, hopefully Trump wont be re-elected in the US - and at some point share markets will recover.

Congratulations to those who cashed out recently - I hope you can pick the right time to return to the market.
Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so it is up to the UN and individual countries (and the EU) to gauge the extent of their response I suppose.

[BlackPeter]

Adolf Hitlers biggest mistake was invading Poland.

He already had the Sudatenland Czeckoslovakia and Austria under his belt. If he had stopped there the democracies would have tolerated him and he could have gone on being a nasty bastard for years. Instead he ended up with a bullet in his head in a bunker.

Is the Ukrainian invasion Putins downfall?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Well, never mind the details - Hitler invaded the Sudetenland (not the Sudatenland) and Czechia (not Czechoslovakia - this country was already dissolved before Hitler invaded - and certainly not Czeckoslovakia), and I think most historians agree that Hitlers biggest mistake was to invade Russia. He could have learned from Napoleon that its not a good idea to invade this vast and in winter bloody cold and hostile country with lots of troops neither prepared nor supplied for winter warfare.

There is as well neither evidence nor reliable witness statements related to which method of dying he choose.

Anyway - will Ukraine's invasion be the end of Putin? Sure - it might be the beginning of the end, but in Hitler's case it took seven more years from taking the Sudetenland and six years after attacking Czechia and many tens of millions of people died during this time.

The West was at that time ways too busy with trying to "appease" Hitler - and sadly it might be now too busy to appease "Putin". Lets hope history does not repeat itself. Same as Hitler does Putin take talking for weakness and he well might keep on attacking and trying to rebuild the Russian empire until the West wakes up from its slumber and hits back.

Maybe time the US army moves from Alaska into Siberia ... not far over the Bering strait. For sure somebody incarcerated in the Siberian Gulags is happy to ask for their help and they can easily recognise an independent Siberia and move in troops to help these poor fellows? This would keep the Russian army busy and separate Russia from the only products this retarded country seems to be able to produce but aggression and war ... oil and gas.

[LEMON]

Well, never mind the details - Hitler invaded the Sudentenland (not the Sudatenland) and Czechia (not Czechoslovakia - this country was already dissolved before Hitler invaded - and certainly not Czeckoslovakia), and I think most historians agree that Hitlers biggest mistake was to invade Russia. He could have learned from Napoleon that its not a good idea to invade this vast and in winter bloody cold and hostile country with lots of troops neither prepared nor supplied for winter warfare.

There is as well neither evidence nor reliable witness statements related to which method of dying he choose.

Anyway - will Ukraine's invasion be the end of Putin? Sure - it might be the beginning of the end, but in Hitler's case it took seven more years from taking the Sudentenland and six years after attacking Czechia and many tens of millions of people died during this time.

The West was at that time ways too busy with trying to "appease" Hitler - and sadly it might be now too busy to appease "Putin". Lets hope history does not repeat itself. Same as Hitler does Putin take talking for weakness and he well might keep on attacking and trying to rebuild the Russian empire until the West wakes up from its slumber and hits back.

Maybe time the US army moves from Alaska into Siberia ... not far over the Bering Strait. For sure somebody incarcerated in the Siberian Gulags is happy to ask for their help and they can easily recognise an independent Siberia and move in troops to help these poor fellows? This would keep the Russian army busy and separate Russia from the only products this retarded country seems to be able to produce but aggression and war ... oil and gas.

If you want the USA to attack Siberia, north of China & North Korea and some of their allies, then you can wave all the young lads around you off to war, because that will be a full escalation as the world goes to war

[Waltzing]

US markets are coming back as OIL is not blocked of course it wasnt going to be...

US markets are now powering back already...

Market has gone back to business as usual...

Military and Tech shocks in Europe will see a flood of money coming in as the MAD MAN does this thing.

Anyone who shorted the russian market if you could would have made a fortune..

[BlackPeter]

If you want the USA to attack Siberia, north of China & North Korea and some of their allies, then you can wave all the young lads around you off to war, because that will be a full escalation as the world goes to war

That's what they said in 1938 in the West as well ... and just look, how that went.

War is something terrible, but same as you sometimes have to fight fire with fire, sometimes you have to fight war with war.

If the West would have responded with force to Hitlers attacks in 1939, many millions of lives could have been saved. Do we want to repeat the same mistake again?

Its like not operating a cancer because you are afraid of the risks of the surgery ... these things rarely go well.

[mcdongle]

Anyone going to buy Gazprom???... :)

[Waltzing]

nzx moving up....

Gerhard Schröder grand plan just got derailed..

Russian market Indexs smashed...

US market Indexs powers back ....

As it should be .. DA!

[wkr]

Hi Johnny the Horse, I am new on the site and really enjoy the comments as I have learnt so much from experienced investors on how share investment works. I was intrigued by your post this morning about the big boys manipulating the price. Could you explain how the shorts and options thing works. Cheers

[stoploss]

Hi Johnny the Horse, I am new on the site and really enjoy the comments as I have learnt so much from experienced investors on how share investment works. I was intrigued by your post this morning about the big boys manipulating the price. Could you explain how the shorts and options thing works. Cheers
If you want conspiracy theories , come down to parliament grounds .

[Baa_Baa]

If you want conspiracy theories , come down to parliament grounds .

It's surprising imo and a bit weird what some of these people think, and believe as well. Certainly well outside my comprehension, I find it difficult to even consider or process. Anyway, I walked past again on my way to the railway station, despite my mask it seemed everyone was chilled and appeared to be going nowhere any time soon. I didn't feel threatened in any way.

I can understand the residents, schools and businesses in the vicinity being hacked off. It's a massive inconvenience and it's gone on for way too long.

FWIW the rush hour train had only a few patrons in the carriage whereas normally it would be packed.

The office had about six people in a 120+ floor plate. City is very quiet, really feeling for businesses. I think this will end a few of them, I can't see how this self inflicted pseudo lockdown, which may last for weeks, will cope with no or small government sustainment grants now that it has moved to 'look after yourself' mode.

I think we're going to see an alarmingly large number of infections relatively quickly and there are no businesses that will be able to function under the current rules. Except maybe those whose staff can function while isolating voluntarily and not be sick enough that they can also work remotely.

[FTG]

As each candle on the daily & weekly chart prints, to me it more & more looks like a good old bear market is now (finally!) forming. It's been so many years now, can you remember those?! If so, I would suggest it's WELL overdue. Let's face it, the March 2020 "crash" wasn't a real bear market. However, it was a very sharp & swift correction. As we know, it was the fastest decent drop from an ATH in history (over 35% fall in less than 30 trading days from the ATH), but which then went on to be totally retraced & go on to further new ATH's (all within just 6 months!).

With just 4 trading days left in the month the S & P is now clearly showing a bearish engulfing candle on the Monthly chart. Yet another signal that if confirmed we should take heed of. Additionally, when looking at the weekly & daily charts one can clearly see the charts are showing more of a 'rounded top'. This is the shape one would normally expect for indices (as opposed to individual stocks, commodities etc which can produce more sharply shaped formations ) to print when evolving into a decent Bear Market. '29, '73, '87, '09 ALL showed rounded tops. During these rounded tops the "smart money" starts to exit, whilst the "not so smart" keep buying the dip.

If I'm on the money and this is the beginning of a BEAR Market, then the eventual targets to the downside will be dependent on which time-cycles are in play. IMHO we are more likely to see a decent Bear market play out over months/years, rather than just days/weeks.

FWIW, Bear markets aren't all bad. They are actually needed to clean things up a bit and set up conditions for sustainable Bull market to prevail later. They are part of a healthy & well functioning market. Remember though , in this case the S & P hasn't been in a Bear Market for a record 13 years. Just think, there will be a few young retail investors who have never truly experienced a Bear Market!


Well, what a week and what a month...

A recap on some current musings.

Most market participants probably feel like they have been in an emotional roller-coaster ride over the last month. Omicron, inflationary concerns & the Ukraine issues all adding to the mix. The intriguing reality though, is when looking back to exactly a month ago (25/1/22), the NZX50, ASX200, S & P 500, and VIX are now ALL pretty much at the same level. The markets have just gone sideways. Who would have thought?

However, when peeling the layers back a little and looking at the internal TA & fundamental measures, IMO there is a good case to say that things have actually continued to slightly deteriorate. At a minimum, the warning signs to the Bulls are still flashing orange.

Whilst market sentiment readings (e.g. Put-Call ratio), VIX, and Large/Small player commitment readings stay relatively benign, in the real world the geopolitical & economic conditions are certainly telling us a different story. In my view, many participants are still fixated on a "buying the dip". As previously opined, this is all part of the market gradually evolving from a hyper-extended Bull market to a traditional Bear market.

Giving us smart STers time to organise our affairs and strengthen cash positions. :)



First though, we now need to see a 2DC below 4200 to strengthen the Bear's case. Later this week, or early next month?

Gosh. I was certainly off a little with the timing! In my own defence though, predicting the timing length of various phases of a market is always one of the hardest parts of successful market TA & trading.
I do note though that the S & P 500 pierced through the 4200 level this week, taking out the 24/1 intraday low, but has immediately retracted. Alas, no 2DC below 4200, yet.

Finishing this week at 4385, I wouldn't be surprised to now see the retracement/consolidation follow through for the next week or two (sorry, there goes that timing thing again!), with 4450 being an initial target. 4600 is an extended possibility, but now presents a formidable resistance zone (previously support and of Fib significance).

NZX50: Sorry to the Bulls, I currently don't see a lot of strength or resilience with this market. Fundamentally or Technically. The team of 50 companies (and 5 million kiwis) is under immense pressure, and there is more brown stuff coming down the pipeline. Fundamentally, there is no hiding the facts about how much we have "mortgaged our future".

In my view 11,000 is the next key target, and quite possibly in reasonably short order; say by the end of May (yip yet again, there goes that timing thingy)

Full Moon Jinx? Just for a bit of fun, I'll put it out there. Pencil Friday March 18th in your diaries folks.
Not only is it a quadruple witching day on the US markets, but it's also a Full Moon. Volumes & volatility normally run higher on these witching days. Coupled with a sprinkling of elevated emotions "from the Full Moon", could make an interesting session; perhaps marking a pivot point or day of capitulation/euphoria. Incidentally, the 2020 Covid plunge low was marked by a New Moon - 23/24 March 2020.

Safe Investing/Trading.

[pierre]

NZX up 1.6% yesterday. S&P 500 up 2.24% last night.
Are we leading the US or will we follow them on Monday?

Plenty of volatility for the traders, possibly a good buying time for investors.

I'm just riding the roller coaster.

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mark-lister-what-the-russian-invasion-means-for-financial-markets/LU4XNAPQ3ZH2KZEH7BA7ZLPKOE/

Very sensible views from Guru Lister ...it seems he sees this as buying opportunities especially for NZX ....

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mark-lister-what-the-russian-invasion-means-for-financial-markets/LU4XNAPQ3ZH2KZEH7BA7ZLPKOE/

Very sensible views from Guru Lister ...it seems he sees this as buying opportunities especially for NZX ....

"The volatility we are seeing at present might ultimately prove an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors, although it is extremely difficult to make a judgement on exactly when to step in".
Extremely difficult - he's not kidding !
Been asked a few times by PM about how I might unwind my very high cash allocation. My view is the economy faces some very strong headwinds at present that don't look like they will abate anytime really soon. Furthermore, the geopolitical situation has rarely been more extreme with a huge range of potential outcomes including the possibility of a full blown European war between NATO countries and Russia and even the possibility of the use of Nuclear weapons.

Its going to be impossible to pick a bottom so gradually dollar cost averaging back in over 12-24 months on an ad hoc basis from time to time as various heavily oversold opportunities present themselves is where I'm at with a keen eye on TA confirming my fundamental analysis. If the nukes start being used then the value of our investments falling will be the least of our problems :eek2:

It seems bizarre that the DOW went up 800 points today. This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, nowhere even remotely close to being over.

[alokdhir]

"The volatility we are seeing at present might ultimately prove an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors, although it is extremely difficult to make a judgement on exactly when to step in".
Extremely difficult - he's not kidding !
Been asked a few times by PM about how I might unwind my very high cash allocation. My view is the economy faces some very strong headwinds at present that don't look like they will abate anytime really soon. Furthermore, the geopolitical situation has rarely been more extreme with a huge range of potential outcomes including the possibility of a full blown European war between NATO countries and Russia and even the possibility of the use of Nuclear weapons.

Its going to be impossible to pick a bottom so gradually dollar cost averaging back in over 12-24 months on an ad hoc basis from time to time as various heavily oversold opportunities present themselves is where I'm at with a keen eye on TA confirming my fundamental analysis. If the nukes start being used then the value of our investments falling will be the least of our problems :eek2:

It seems bizarre that the DOW went up 800 points today. This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, nowhere even remotely close to being over.

Thats also sensible ...getting into good stocks slowly at likeable prices ....

But most are well invested keeping in view they hold long term positions ....for them this is not the time to worry much and do much ...just let this also pass ...if it turns from 10000 or 8000 is not the question for them ....after 1-2 years will it be 15000 or still 9000 is more relevant ....IMO it will eventually come back from where ...only God knows ....even Guru Lister wont comment on that !!!

Dow going up 834 points mean mostly that markets not yet ready to collapse ...also markets were more concerned about sanctions then actual conflict ...so if these are the maximum sanctions in play and not any more countries get involved in conflict then market is good with that ...Important point Lister made about this turmoil will stop Central Banks from being too Hawkish as now they need worry about sentiment and economic confidence too . He says it may lead to lower tops of the rate cycle

[Oberon]

- Energy not sanctioned.
- Fairly empty rumour re: Putin willing to negotiate.

Of course, the big one:
- The doves at the FED might win out and the interest rate hikes will be less aggressive than the market has anticipated.

So while the FED gingerly bumps the rate by a poultry 25 basis points, inflation will continue it's march upward - with the Ukraine tragedy only adding fuel to the fire.

The FED won't be doing Biden any favours as the middle and lower rungs of US society are squeezed further to facilitate another round of risk-on assets pumping.

The VIX was up pretty high as well; as Beagle said - this rollercoaster aint over.

[ratkin]

Its going to be impossible to pick a bottom so gradually dollar cost averaging back in over 12-24 months on an ad hoc basis from time to time as various heavily oversold opportunities present themselves is where I'm at with a keen eye on TA confirming my fundamental analysis. If the nukes start being used then the value of our investments falling will be the least of our problems :eek2:

It seems bizarre that the DOW went up 800 points today. This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, nowhere even remotely close to being over.

Western markets will not collapse, they will not be allowed to. While we are effectively on a war footing, all steps will be taken to ensure market stability. As for nukes, like you say, the value of investments would be the least of your problems.

[Joshuatree]

"The volatility we are seeing at present might ultimately prove an attractive buying opportunity for long-term investors, although it is extremely difficult to make a judgement on exactly when to step in".
Extremely difficult - he's not kidding !
Been asked a few times by PM about how I might unwind my very high cash allocation. My view is the economy faces some very strong headwinds at present that don't look like they will abate anytime really soon. Furthermore, the geopolitical situation has rarely been more extreme with a huge range of potential outcomes including the possibility of a full blown European war between NATO countries and Russia and even the possibility of the use of Nuclear weapons.

Its going to be impossible to pick a bottom so gradually dollar cost averaging back in over 12-24 months on an ad hoc basis from time to time as various heavily oversold opportunities present themselves is where I'm at with a keen eye on TA confirming my fundamental analysis. If the nukes start being used then the value of our investments falling will be the least of our problems :eek2:

It seems bizarre that the DOW went up 800 points today. This isn't over by any stretch of the imagination, nowhere even remotely close to being over.

Similar thing happened when covid arrived.Traders and novice investors working on instant fix gratifications.Sharsies investor/traders know off by heart"be greedy when others are fearful".It's easy instant gains Ala cellphone sorta world now.

[Waltzing]

huge overnight policy changes in europe...Could be a very choppy week ahead on US and European exchanges..

Defence sector spending in europe to go sky high.

[Habits]

huge overnight policy changes in europe...Could be a very choppy week ahead on US and European exchanges..

Defence sector spending in europe to go sky high.

Maybe Putin will be Spewtin and get his arse kicked. He has had his time and Muscovites and other Russians are actually visibly protesting in Russia. That takes a lot of guts and a groundswell to get away with

[777]

I can see Fridays gain reversed tonight. An indication may come after Australia and the Asian markets open shortly.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I can see Fridays gain reversed tonight. An indication may come after Australia and the Asian markets open shortly.

SPY futures opened down ~2.5%.

[Waltzing]

NZ markets up

Hate to be anyone with russian investments..

US appears to have got Europe on board to change its policies over night.

Time to buy defence stocks

Higher inflation and also lower growth as commodities spike.

[Joshuatree]

I heard on some news channel re a 500km column of Russian army vehicles headed into Ukraine:scared:

[mike2020]

I heard on some news channel re a 500km column of Russian army vehicles headed into Ukraine:scared:

It's 5 km.

[Waltzing]

Its a resupply convey according to some ex US Military generals . They ran out of vodka... looks like the US would whip their saddles..

UE has now stopped their dinner party drinks fights and are now working together. Nothing like a war to unite the EU.

[alokdhir]

Markets seem to have found their footing ...they are not tanking as many expected ...worst event and worst aftermath already known and into the price...Hopefully it can only become better from markets perspective .

Will NZX recent low of 11700 or so hold ...seems so that will be low of the year . Hope so no unpleasant surprises from Mr Putin and his mates

[Waltzing]

yes duck shooting season coming soon.

Not a fan of actually shooting them but do they make for pie?

https://www.foodtolove.co.nz/recipes/duck-and-mushroom-pie-12965

[Davexl]

Its a resupply convey according to some ex US Military generals . They ran out of vodka... looks like the US would whip their saddles..

UE has now stopped their dinner party drinks fights and are now working together. Nothing like a war to unite the EU.

Damn, pity they don't have a few American A10 tank busters to take out that big convoy - have to make do with a few Javelins instead!:)

[alokdhir]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/03/united-states-president-joe-biden-sends-former-top-defence-officials-to-taiwan-amid-fears-china-could-invade.html

This can totally destroy the markets .... Hopefully just rumours

[bull....]

who's enjoying the volatility lol
wow oil up $10 overnight , $3 petrol baked in now and the boat going back into storage the snapper will be happy about that.
anyway looks like the little bear rally has finished and its back to trend now

if you wondering why bitcoin etc is going up its because of the flight of russians buying it

[alokdhir]

With Oil on the boil ....almost up 15 % in 2 days ....Its going to put breaks on growth big time ....All Central banks will have to revisit their rates strategy big time ...all those big 50-100 basis points rises being rumoured should be out of question .

DCF valuations will be re visited by analysts .

This war is going to last longer then many thought and its going to cause major disruptions to mainly Europe , its energy sector and banks

NZ may look attractive safe heaven to many with very limited exposure to bad effects but for big oil rise ...which can be countered by going soft on rates ...Imported Inflation will be hard to manage ...

[Rawz]

Oil goes up = more inflation thou. More pressure to raise rates.

Whats it called when you got inflation and falling economic activity? oh dear

[alokdhir]

Oil goes up = more inflation thou. More pressure to raise rates.

Whats it called when you got inflation and falling economic activity? oh dear

Oil over $ 100 per barrel has been equated as 50 basis point OCR hike due to its slowing economy effect . Its demand is almost inelastic thus it reduces discretionary spending by absorbing more cash from wallets ...same as OCR hiking do ...But it does form part of CPI ...

[nztx]

Oil goes up = more inflation thou. More pressure to raise rates.

Whats it called when you got inflation and falling economic activity? oh dear


It's called 'time to look at the Oilers who may benefit big time over yonder' ;)

Nothing like a large dallop of insurance & covering of things..

[nztx]

Damn, pity they don't have a few American A10 tank busters to take out that big convoy - have to make do with a few Javelins instead!:)


Quite a few have similar thoughts .. so many hundred sitting ducks all in a row
and no-one apparently wants to have fun seeing if they go upwards or in reverse
faster than they arrived :)

[alokdhir]

So far Guru Lister's forecast is turning out to be pretty spot on ...One step back and two forward ...also NZX will do eventually better then rest of the world ...NZX will end the year positive ...10 months to go .

[Joshuatree]

It's called 'time to look at the Oilers who may benefit big time over yonder' ;)

Nothing like a large dallop of insurance & covering of things..

I picked 5 oilers in the ASX share comp.They are way ahead of where I expected them to be and would rather take the inevitable tortoise supply/demand route of sure to rise then the fast Ukraine way.

[mcdongle]

Quite a few have similar thoughts .. so many hundred sitting ducks all in a row
and no-one apparently wants to have fun seeing if they go upwards or in reverse
faster than they arrived :)

Reading things like this is quite depressing really, I am sure the people driving these trucks dont really want to be there, And you want to have fun seeing them die.

[Panda-NZ-]

edit: wrong topic.

[BlackPeter]

Reading things like this is quite depressing really, I am sure the people driving these trucks dont really want to be there, And you want to have fun seeing them die.

True - however I am still much more sure that none of these truckdrivers nor their deadly load are welcome where they are supposed to go ... and they know that.

So, wouldn't it be better they turn around now and attack the crook who ordered them to go and die as a hero, instead of killing many innocent Ukrainians and die as a crook and coward?

[nztx]

Reading things like this is quite depressing really, I am sure the people driving these trucks dont really want to be there, And you want to have fun seeing them die.

I'm sure Ukranians on the ground deserve far more consideration than any Aggressors participating in the invasion
of the country. Whether the Invaders like it or not they are all complicit in the destruction & war crimes Russia
has inflicted on Ukraine..

None of the invaders are or have been sent into Ukraine for just an afternoon's picnic or for mere peacekeeping, which was Putin's excuse for this happening..

I agree with Blackpeter's thoughts ..

How much mercy did those invading have for civilians on the ground in Ukraine who didn't
ask or want this ?

[Joshuatree]

8 supertankers of oil/gas heading from Russia to USA ATM. CNBC tonight. Not Russian flagged and ordered prior to the Ukraine war.

[mcdongle]

I'm sure Ukranians on the ground deserve far more consideration than any Aggressors participating in the invasion
of the country. Whether the Invaders like it or not they are all complicit in the destruction & war crimes Russia
has inflicted on Ukraine..

None of the invaders are or have been sent into Ukraine for just an afternoon's picnic or for mere peacekeeping, which was Putin's excuse for this happening..

I agree with Blackpeter's thoughts ..

How much mercy did those invading have for civilians on the ground in Ukraine who didn't
ask or want this ?

If you had posted this in the first place i would not have replied. It was the fact that you thought killing people was fun that i felt i had to.

[nztx]

If you had posted this in the first place i would not have replied. It was the fact that you thought killing people was fun that i felt i had to.

would reading lessons help ? ;)

[bull....]

Consumer confidence sinks to lowest level ANZ survey has recorded

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127955965/consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-level-anz-survey-has-recorded

not surprising

house prices not rising anymore the big one as NZ economy so reliant on the wealth effect from housing.
add in high inflation now making everyone poorer and i mean pretty much everyone as wages , dividends etc etc dont rise enough to make up for rising prices in services and goods.

im expecting companies to be doing downgrades late this yr or next yr due to inflation and less consumer spending.
commodity companies should do alright this yr

[bull....]

if the nuclear power plant blows up it be massive like bomb with radiation all over europe.
i would think europe will attack russia then.
interesting night ahead

chernobyl caused a near 20% digit drop in europe markets when it blew up

[ba9]

if the nuclear power plant blows up it be massive like bomb with radiation all over europe.
i would think europe will attack russia then.
interesting night ahead

chernobyl caused a near 20% digit drop in europe markets when it blew up


I think we would have bigger issues if the nuclear plant did blow up. It would for sure be WW III

[Panda-NZ-]

The Russian military has shown it's incompetence on multiple fronts.

It should simply stop before the whole world knows about their lack of skill and capability.

[bull....]

see russia saying they might restrict fertilizer exports :scared: means food shortages in some parts of the world ... more conflict etc and higher food prices for all

Russia Jolts Global Fertilizer Market by Seeking End to Exports (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-calls-on-domestic-fertilizer-producers-to-halt-exports)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-calls-on-domestic-fertilizer-producers-to-halt-exports

[Balance]

If stocks fall due to the threat of nuclear war, BUY THE DIPS.

If nuclear war doesn't happen, you will make some serious money.

If nuclear war happens, you won't need the money anyway.

Stay safe & stay sane - you cannot influence the outcome but you can control your emotions & stay calm.

[BlackPeter]

The Russian military has shown it's incompetence on multiple fronts.

It should simply stop before the whole world knows about their lack of skill and capability.

Too late.

Unfortunately - even a dumb Russian nuke kills clever people.

[BlackPeter]

see russia saying they might restrict fertilizer exports :scared: means food shortages in some parts of the world ... more conflict etc and higher food prices for all

Russia Jolts Global Fertilizer Market by Seeking End to Exports (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-calls-on-domestic-fertilizer-producers-to-halt-exports)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-calls-on-domestic-fertilizer-producers-to-halt-exports

Russian stops exporting fertilizer? Well, to be fair - the Russian dictator tries to compensate ... so much manure coming out of his mouth.

[Balance]

Russian stops exporting fertilizer? Well, to be fair - the Russian dictator tries to compensate ... so much manure coming out of his mouth.

Much like NZ with our Cindy but life's good as long as you buy the spin, right?

[Beagle]

European markets down 7% this week. Dow down for the fourth straight week.
This morning on CNBC they were talking about gas prices for parts of Europe that would cripple many consumers and business's. Prices that if converted into the price of petrol, (which is something we can more easily understand), are the same as US $30 a gallon. That's $US 8 a liter = $N.Z 11.76 a liter. By the time the Govt added GST and all the other taxes on here imagine paying $15 a liter for petrol !

[Balance]

European markets down 7% this week. Dow down for the fourth straight week.
This morning on CNBC they were talking about gas prices for parts of Europe that would cripple many consumers and business's. Prices that if converted into the price of petrol, (which is something we can more easily understand), are the same as US $30 a gallon. That's $US 8 a liter = $N.Z 11.76 a liter. By the time the Govt added GST and all the other taxes on here imagine paying $15 a liter for petrol !

Sounds great!

Go long oil futures! :t_up::t_up::t_up:

Short utilities! :t_down::t_down::t_down:

[mcdongle]

Russian stops exporting fertilizer? Well, to be fair - the Russian dictator tries to compensate ... so much manure coming out of his mouth.

Could be serious for Europe as it will cause a real shortage, And there is no replacement, When Russia cuts off oil and gas i wonder if we are going to see a real scramble to re connect with them?

[Joshuatree]

Can someone start a new thread on Russia-Ukraine,I can't find how to do it.Thanks

[mcdongle]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Rallies-As-White-House-Considers-Ban-On-Russian-Oil-Imports.html

I wonder where they are going to get the 11m barrels of oil a day Russia produces.

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-production-by-country/

OPEC countries cant produce the quotas they have now.

[mcdongle]

Does anyone know which country our oil reserves are stored in by any chance?

[Balance]

Does anyone know which country our oil reserves are stored in by any chance?

We have no oil reserves.

And this government has banned any new oil & gas explorations.

[BlackPeter]

Could be serious for Europe as it will cause a real shortage, And there is no replacement, When Russia cuts off oil and gas i wonder if we are going to see a real scramble to re connect with them?

Hardly. Plenty of places around the world which have plenty of oil. Look at how the US managed to get independent from foreign oil.

As well - maybe this is the chance the planet needed to remind everybody that conserving energy could be a virtue? Just look at these idiots (not just in NZ) who bought plenty of gas guzzling SUV's they only use to drive to the office and to the supermarket just because petrol was cheap and they needed to show their neighbour that theirs is bigger than his.

Maybe some people here and in Europe will now reconsider.

Maybe some less gas guzzlers on the road. Big deal.

[Baa_Baa]

We have no oil reserves.

And this government has banned any new oil & gas explorations.

We had oil reserves, it's not clear what percentage of the total reserves the 60 million barrels released are. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127932014/nz-agrees-to-release-oil-reserves-as-part-of-response-to-war-on-ukraine

[Balance]

We had oil reserves, it's not clear what percentage of the total reserves the 60 million barrels released are. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127932014/nz-agrees-to-release-oil-reserves-as-part-of-response-to-war-on-ukraine

Good to know.

[Beagle]

Sounds great!

Go long oil futures! :t_up::t_up::t_up:

Short utilities! :t_down::t_down::t_down:

I'm starting to worry about how balanced you are. $15 a liter for petrol would cripple the transport system, would lead to hyper inflation for food and a whole host of other issues. Imagine paying $750 to fill up the family car...

The reason for my post was to illustrate that many consumers in Europe with gas prices are being forced to choose between heating their homes and food. Just as well summer is coming for them.

I can foresee the possibility of $4 a liter for fuel here as quite conceivable if we get to $200 a barrel for oil. Fuel is already really hurting consumers and acts like a tax and handbrake on the economy.

[Joshuatree]

Can someone start a new thread on Russia-Ukraine,I can't find how to do it.Thanks
Sorted,have started new thread on Russia/Ukraine

[Panda-NZ-]

I can foresee the possibility of $4 a liter for fuel here as quite conceivable if we get to $200 a barrel for oil. Fuel is already really hurting consumers and acts like a tax and handbrake on the economy.

So called allies, the medieval kingdom of saudi arabia doing little to help.

Take a bike or walk to work and give the middle finger to these rather evil people.

[Balance]

I'm starting to worry about how balanced you are. $15 a liter for petrol would cripple the transport system, would lead to hyper inflation for food and a whole host of other issues. Imagine paying $750 to fill up the family car...

The reason for my post was to illustrate that many consumers in Europe with gas prices are being forced to choose between heating their homes and food. Just as well summer is coming for them.

I can foresee the possibility of $4 a liter for fuel here as quite conceivable if we get to $200 a barrel for oil. Fuel is already really hurting consumers and acts like a tax and handbrake on the economy.

I agree with you entirely, Beagle.

We are however powerless to influence the direction of oil prices & the Ukrainian invasion - so best we stay calm and hedge ourselves the best we can under the worse case scenarios.

Go Oil Futures!

Whatever will be, will be.

[BlackPeter]

I'm starting to worry about how balanced you are. $15 a liter for petrol would cripple the transport system, would lead to hyper inflation for food and a whole host of other issues. Imagine paying $750 to fill up the family car...

The reason for my post was to illustrate that many consumers in Europe with gas prices are being forced to choose between heating their homes and food. Just as well summer is coming for them.

I can foresee the possibility of $4 a liter for fuel here as quite conceivable if we get to $200 a barrel for oil. Fuel is already really hurting consumers and acts like a tax and handbrake on the economy.

I think we all have seen market jitters in various crisis ... and we all know that assuming short spikes in any direction just keep going into the same direction never made sense, and so it does now.

People are incredible flexible to adapt when their access to resources changes - people who used to bath every day in campaign might find that cheap local bubbly does quite the same job (saving to transport the campaign from France, less petrol consumption), people who used to drive their kids with the SUV to school next block might find that their kids actually have feet they can use for walking (less petrol consumption) and people who could not live without annoying the neighbourhood with doing motocross wheelies in their garden every weekend might find that using a mountain bike is a much healthier sport and burning no costly petrol.

If petrol is $15 a litre, consumption will drastically drop - and so will the price.

As well - if petrol is $15 a litre, every uneconomical oil field around the world will turn huge profits and more and more people will pump oil. Guess what - petrol prices will fall.

No panic, and unless the Russian dictator decides to end the world in a nuclear winter and murder suicide - nothing big will change for most people ... and even in the worst case has the southern hemisphere reasonable chances to survive.

BTW - I used to holiday at various times in countries with a petrol price of roughly 4 to 6 dollars (NZ) per litre . Guess what - they drive a bit more economical cars (which is good) and maybe drive more scooters than cars, but otherwise ... they have a fine life - not an issue.

Just relax.

[Panda-NZ-]

Saudi arabia has no nuclear arms.. and apparently their soldiers are not great (they bail out of expensive planes rather than die in an unislamic way).

Their women will need liberating if petrol gets to $15.

[Balance]

Saudi arabia has no nukes.. and apparently their soldiers are not great (they bail out of expensive planes rather than die in an unislamic way).

Their women need liberating if petrol gets to $15.

Racist & anti-Muslim post by resident Labour shill.

Keep digging your hole deeper.

[dobby41]

We have no oil reserves.

And this government has banned any new oil & gas explorations.

How did we release them then?

[Balance]

We had oil reserves, it's not clear what percentage of the total reserves the 60 million barrels released are. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127932014/nz-agrees-to-release-oil-reserves-as-part-of-response-to-war-on-ukraine


How did we release them then?


We had oil reserves, it's not clear what percentage of the total reserves the 60 million barrels released are. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127932014/nz-agrees-to-release-oil-reserves-as-part-of-response-to-war-on-ukraine

Thanks Baa-Baa!

[mcdongle]

Hardly. Plenty of places around the world which have plenty of oil. Look at how the US managed to get independent from foreign oil.

As well - maybe this is the chance the planet needed to remind everybody that conserving energy could be a virtue? Just look at these idiots (not just in NZ) who bought plenty of gas guzzling SUV's they only use to drive to the office and to the supermarket just because petrol was cheap and they needed to show their neighbour that theirs is bigger than his.

Maybe some people here and in Europe will now reconsider.

Maybe some less gas guzzlers on the road. Big deal.

I dont think you understand the situation, if 11m barrels stops tomorrow there is NO replacement

[mcdongle]

So called allies, the medieval kingdom of saudi arabia doing little to help.

Take a bike or walk to work and give the middle finger to these rather evil people.

How do i transport a truckload of supplies to the supermarket?

[Panda-NZ-]

How do i transport a truckload of supplies to the supermarket?

Kiwirail (with the trucks travelling a short distance).

[mfd]

How do i transport a truckload of supplies to the supermarket?

Use a truck for that. It's the majority of car rides where we're just transporting our own bodies a few km with 500kg of metal along for the ride that is the problem.

[nztx]

Use a truck for that. It's the majority of car rides where we're just transporting our own bodies a few km with 500kg of metal along for the ride that is the problem.


Z Energy might do it hard if all the parents were denied their twice daily school car meetups outside
to discuss the weather while waiting :)

[mcdongle]

Kiwirail (with the trucks travelling a short distance).

Dont they use diesel

[Balance]

deleted deleted

[Zaphod]

Kiwirail (with the trucks travelling a short distance).

Providing state owned rail companies with a monopoly on medium to long-distance transport didn't work very well in the 1980's. High costs, large bureaucracy - a winning combination.

[Balance]

Providing state owned rail companies with a monopoly on medium to long-distance transport didn't work very well in the 1980's. High costs, large bureaucracy - a winning combination.


Dont they use diesel


Kiwirail (with the trucks travelling a short distance).

Just another ignorant posting from our resident Labour shill Panda without an idea or clue (like Cindy's government) of how the real world operates.

Of course KiwiRail uses diesel engines for their freight trains.

Tax & spend & waste - Breed more beneficiaries - all they know.

[mcdongle]

sometimes posting here is like having teeth pulled

[Panda-NZ-]

Just another ignorant posting from our resident Labour shill Panda without an idea or clue (like Cindy's government) of how the real world operates.

Of course KiwiRail uses diesel engines for their freight trains.



Four times more fuel efficient, and only need one front cab, engine and driver rather than 100 for the same cargo volume.

[Balance]

Four times more fuel efficient, and only need one front cab, engine and driver rather than 100 for the same cargo volume.

Totally irrelevant to the posting you ignorantly replied to :


How do i transport a truckload of supplies to the supermarket?

Best you go back to your racist & anti Islam postings - Labour’s & your true colours.

[BlackPeter]

I dont think you understand the situation, if 11m barrels stops tomorrow there is NO replacement

I think I understand the situation.

Russia produces roughly 10% of the worlds oil supplies and consumes roughly 3.7% of the world oil supplies, this means that worst case 6.3% of the world oil supplies will go amiss in the case of a total boycott.

However - I am sure that some of the neighbouring Russian lackies and international pariahs are more than happy to buy some of the boycotted Russian oil. I am thinking about countries like North Korea, China, Myanmar, and probably Pakistan and India. While Iran belongs to the same lot, they probably have enough own oil. Russian lackies will make sure to reduce these 6.3% to less than half - maybe use all of it.

This means that any western boycott might mean some reshuffle of oil supply lines and it might mean as well less western money for Russia. It would however in the midterm not materially impact on our oil supply. Sure - there would be some initial jitter until all the oil tankers are rerouted ... and maybe oil prices would lift a bit. What's the big fuss? Oil is ways too cheap as long as people are happy to waste it. Lets give them an incentive to drive more economical cars, to drive less, to teach children to walk instead of been driven and to put their mechanical toys into the storage instead of polluting with them our environment, shall we?

[Balance]

Oil prices will stabilise when China, one of the world’s biggest consumer of oil, buys the Russian oil rejected by other countries.

China reduces its imports from other OPEC countries who in turn will have to sell into the market.

[kiora]

'Shell PLC has snapped up a cargo of Russian crude at a bargain price, ending a self-imposed embargo on Russian oil by the international energy industry.

Shell bought 100,000 metric tons of Russia’s flagship Urals crude on Friday, according to people familiar with the transaction. It paid $28.50 a barrel below the price of international benchmark Brent crude, the widest discount on record.

London-listed Shell bought the crude from Trafigura Group Pte. Ltd., one of the biggest commodity traders and largest exporters of Russian oil"
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/shell-buys-russian-oil-at-bargain-price-2ZljvO2HQlmPm5d5aAgG

[winner69]

Skyrocketing Oil Prices + Flattening Yield Curve + Wimpish RBNZ = Recession

How do NZ stocks go in a recession?

[Balance]

Skyrocketing Oil Prices + Flattening Yield Curve + Wimpish RBNZ = Recession

How do NZ stocks go in a recession?

Recession = drop in interest rates.

What does that mean for the trillions of dollars sloshing around looking for a return?

Back to property?

[Crypto Crude]

So when America invades Iraq Afghanistan, libia, Syrians many other countries its ok.. NATO and the UN aswell...... but when Russia goes at Ukraine to protect itself from a hostile takeover from the west then its boycotts and seizing assets... there were also 14,000 Russians murdered in Ukraine by extremists over the years..
There's far more to the story than you believe... and I think it's because Putin (like Trump) aren't doing what they are told to do...
It all reeks to high hell and none of yous see it...

You have to go search for the proper info... you will not find it on the mainstream media...

[bull....]

Who's ready for another volatile week.

the best bets are on inflation sky rocketing this yr and growth slowing or in NZ case going into recession.
i see the yield curve in NZ is virtually signalling recession is coming now :scared: not surprising when you consider NZ is dependant on a open world for trade and the opposite is going to accelerate now which NZ is not prepared for at all.
downgrades coming for NZX companies later this yr or next yr. dividends wont save you

[Balance]

Who's ready for another volatile week.

the best bets are on inflation sky rocketing this yr and growth slowing or in NZ case going into recession.
i see the yield curve in NZ is virtually signalling recession is coming now :scared: not surprising when you consider NZ is dependant on a open world for trade and the opposite is going to accelerate now which NZ is not prepared for at all.
downgrades coming for NZX companies later this yr or next yr. dividends wont save you

Interest rates back down to 0.25%.

[Rawz]

If interest rates go back down to the low 2s I’ll be laughing all the way to the bank

[Balance]

If interest rates go back down to the low 2s I’ll be laughing all the way to the bank

That's what happens if recession hits.

[bull....]

That's what happens if recession hits.

companies profits fall and dividends fall

[BlackPeter]

So when America invades Iraq Afghanistan, libia, Syrians many other countries its ok.. NATO and the UN aswell...... but when Russia goes at Ukraine to protect itself from a hostile takeover from the west then its boycotts and seizing assets... there were also 14,000 Russians murdered in Ukraine by extremists over the years..
There's far more to the story than you believe... and I think it's because Putin (like Trump) aren't doing what they are told to do...
It all reeks to high hell and none of yous see it...

You have to go search for the proper info... you will not find it on the mainstream media...

LOL - Wladimir ... how lucky we are to have your misinformation pushed directly into our throats. Nearly as lucky as the citizens of Russia who expect now 15 year prison sentences just for saying the truth.

What an absolute disgrace coming from somebody enjoying all the perks of the West. Shame on you!

[Panda-NZ-]

In backwards Russia, real news is now considered fake news and vice versa.

[mcdongle]

Is something gonna blow.

1359713598

[ba9]

LOL - Wladimir ... how lucky we are to have your misinformation pushed directly into our throats. Nearly as lucky as the citizens of Russia who expect now 15 year prison sentences just for saying the truth.

What an absolute disgrace coming from somebody enjoying all the perks of the West. Shame on you!



I posted this on a different thread. Might help you see a different perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4)
Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer

[Bjauck]

I posted this on a different thread. Might help you see a different perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4)
Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer



There are always various geopolitical issues. However there is no excuse for the invasion and widespread bombing and butchering of Ukrainians in their homes. If Putin's cause were just, why should he need to stamp out a foolish opposition?

[bull....]

wow oil just opened up over 10$ a barrel at 126

[Balance]

wow oil just opened up over 10$ a barrel at 126

LoVe it!

Go long oil futures! :t_up:

[Muse]

I posted this on a different thread. Might help you see a different perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4)
Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer



Yes I've watched that. For context though - this is a 2015 speech given from a foreign policy 'realist' at the University of Chicago professor - and the subject is on Crimea & the Donbass. His speech largely focuses on the west antagonizing Russia through letting Ukraine keep its dream of joing Nato - no matter how farfetched and distant - alive. Coupled with Nato's eastword drift over the last 30 years. I've read some follow-up interviews he's given and in this video and in those follow-ups he says Russia would never fully invade Ukraine, that Russia doesn't want the ukraine, that it would be madness for Putin to ever do that, and in his view Putin just wants to destablise the Ukraine so it can't keep integrating with the west.

Well Russia has fully invaded Ukraine and just the other day Putin declared to Macron that he intended to seize the entirety of the Ukraine - a direct contradiction to Mearsheimer's thesis.

There can be no doubt that Russia and America have spent the last 70 odd years prodding each other, like annoying brats who can't help but egg each other on.

But despite Nato's open door policy and all the warm and fluffy sounds offered to Ukraine, they were never about to join Nato. It wasn't ever close to happening and nor was it ever in the forseeable future. Russia had in fact its own defacto veto card with its occupation of Crimea and keeping the conflict going in eastern ukraine as there is a standing policy that no country may join nato if they are in an ongoing conflict. Furthermore, there can be no doubt that America was wanting to withdrawal much of its forces and attention from Europe and the middle east to focus on China. America simply didn't care about Russia and wasn't building up its forces in recent times - the opposite was true.

The fact is Ukraine wasn't going to join Nato and the west was turning its focus away from Russia and to China. The blame for Russia's invasion of Ukraine rests solely with Putin.

The west bears responsibility for encouraging Ukraine's hopes and talk of joining Nato. And for humiliating & antagonizing Russia for expanding Nato over the last 30 years. But Russia has done its own fair share of antangozing the West right back - and the former is hardly any justification for this war.

[bull....]

Australia to Build New $7.4 Billion Base for Nuclear Submarines
The Australian government will spend at least A$10 billion ($7.4 billion) building a new base to house a future fleet of nuclear submarines, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison warns the Ukraine war will “inevitably stretch” to the Indo-Pacific.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-06/australia-to-build-new-7-4-billion-base-for-nuclear-submarines?srnd=premium-asia

sounds like morrison thinks ww3 is coming

[Swala]

I posted this on a different thread. Might help you see a different perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4)
Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer




Thanks for posting this I found it extremly informative.

[Blue Horseshoe]

Thanks for posting this I found it extremly informative.

Check out " Ukraine on Fire" on YouTube, a real eye opener for me.

[Swala]

Check out " Ukraine on Fire" on YouTube, a real eye opener for me.


Yes, saw that recently. Also very useful in trying to get a feel for the background.

[Panda-NZ-]

Russia has no right to a sphere of influence when it is a dictatorship whereas the alternative is a democracy.

Putin fears the success of ukraine -- showing ordinary russians what freedom, peace and prosperity look like.

[nztx]

Russia has no right to a sphere of influence when it is a dictatorship whereas the alternative is a democracy.

Putin fears the success of ukraine -- showing ordinary russians what freedom, peace and prosperity look like.


The young ones in Putin's Rushka probably already have a taste for what comes from the west however :)

No denying that or the fact they are being denied things from the West by virtue of Putin's tactics on the Ukrainan cousins.. how will that go down as time goes on ?

[Panda-NZ-]

In regards to oil maybe some pressure can be put on the middle east. Some until now, hidden war crimes from saudi arabia coming to light?

It's not like the entire region is doing much good, with our money.

[nztx]

In regards to oil maybe some pressure can be put on the middle east. Some until now, hidden war crimes from saudi arabia coming to light?

It's not like the entire region is doing much good, with our money.

The US is friendly with the Saudi's aren't they ? :)

Perhaps some pressure could be put on Megan Woods to start exploration for our own ? ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

NZ doesn't really need to with 90% renewable energy and EVs everywhere.

Similar to food prices we can expect NZ business to charge top dollar for oil when its finally built.

[nztx]

NZ doesn't really need to with 90% renewable energy and EVs everywhere.

Similar to food prices we can expect NZ business to charge top dollar for oil when its finally built.


So no real necessity to be importing 20% of our fuel from Ruska is there ? ;)

The rigs aren't built though are they ? a matter of leased or hired to do the job is it not ?

Oil is always priced at International prices is it not ? :)

That's standard globally .. so no real excuse to be grumbling about it :)

[hyinvest]

German stocks enter bear market
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-07/card/german-stocks-enter-bear-market-lgNHEsxJ0y5o7rd7PPaH

[Joshuatree]

Looking more and more like when Russian oil will be banned not if.
BBC

[nztx]

Looking more and more like when Russian oil will be banned not if.
BBC


Wait until that starts going round and round hitting economies around the globe, each with
their own pricing / taxing strategies on top ;)

What will $150 or $200 Bbl Oil likely inflict here ?

[kiora]

NZ hasn't got a very extensive supply chain for petroleum,17 days including crude on the water but now shutting Marsden
Seeing the effect here of high prices
"Hundreds of bakeries shut in Sri Lanka after cooking gas runs out"
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/hundreds-of-bakeries-shut-in-sri-lanka-after-cooking-gas-runs-out/47409630

Lucky for us
"Drilling campaign almost doubles Māui gas field's production - OMV"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/rnz/300533899/drilling-campaign-almost-doubles-mui-gas-fields-production--omv

[bull....]

super volatile night , dax was down 4% one stage only to rally back to up and then end down.
commodities crazy moves up and down.
wall st hammered again and looking like europe will be another red night again but wait
all depends on who says what.

no end of sight for a bottom as its a nice orderly decline or is that bear

[bull....]

nzx just broken down thru it consolidation at lows ... implying a quick 300 point to the downside move short term ... of course longer term much lower targets

[JohnnyTheHorse]

nzx just broken down thru it consolidation at lows ... implying a quick 300 point to the downside move short term ... of course longer term much lower targets

Not sure what feed you're looking at, but my live feed is still 0.5% above previous lows.

[bull....]

Not sure what feed you're looking at, but my live feed is still 0.5% above previous lows.

my feed for the nzx is a cfd one not worth paying for a live feed of the index. i find the cfd one works just fine for nzx
your prices probably different but the overall pic probably the same
im looking at the consolidation from beginning feb 11900 - 12300 odd

[Joshuatree]

Wait until that starts going round and round hitting economies around the globe, each with
their own pricing / taxing strategies on top ;)

What will $150 or $200 Bbl Oil likely inflict here ?

Not good for anyo ne except things like EVs,this will turbo charge new disruptive tech and the race to combat climate change.If there is a recession oil use will drop anyways.

[nztx]

Not good for anyo ne except things like EVs,this will turbo charge new disruptive tech and the race to combat climate change.If there is a recession oil use will drop anyways.


Looks to me like a perfect storm of conditions developing for a Global Depression .. am I wrong ?

[BlackPeter]

Looks to me like a perfect storm of conditions developing for a Global Depression .. am I wrong ?

I guess if you try hard enough, then anything looks like what you want to see.

Pessimist will see the end of the world coming and optimists will see amazing opportunities.

Both optimists and pessimists are sometimes right and sometimes wrong, but optimists tend to live longer :) :

Just imagine ...

Putin might be taken out by some Russians who do not like war, who like democracy or by some oligarch who loves both his money as well as his country more then he loves the Russian Hitler. Alternatively he could be taken out by some Ukrainian or Western agent (hey, they must be good for something?).
How do you think markets would react to such a feast - celebration!?

Russians might get stuck in their attack (it sounds they are already) - and while the killing might continue, the world economy might not really care. Have a look at international markets during WW I and WW II instead of inventing bleak scenarios. Rothschild (a guy with much more money than your or I) used to say "Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets."

The world might reshuffle energy supplies in the months to come and be quite fine with boycotting the Russian fuels. Again - not a lot would happen to the world economy (hopefully they get a bit faster carbon neutral as spin off).

Sure - Putin might press as well the big red button after discovering that his conventional army is just a bunch of unprofessional clowns ... but lets face it, if he does (I leave it up to your judgement whether both he and his generals are suicidal and happy to kill themselves, their families and their people), then an economic depression is the least of our problems.

Overall I do see many more positive scenarios for the world economy than negative scenarios ... but hey - you see what you want to see.

We well might be at the moment in the early parts of the V-shaped Covid event in 2020. Was this the last big depression? If yes, then hey - you well might be right :p;

[nztx]

I guess if you try hard enough, then anything looks like what you want to see.

Pessimist will see the end of the world coming and optimists will see amazing opportunities.

Both optimists and pessimists are sometimes right and sometimes wrong, but optimists tend to live longer :) :

Just imagine ...

Putin might be taken out by some Russians who do not like war, who like democracy or by some oligarch who loves both his money as well as his country more then he loves the Russian Hitler. Alternatively he could be taken out by some Ukrainian or Western agent (hey, they must be good for something?).
How do you think markets would react to such a feast - celebration!?

Russians might get stuck in their attack (it sounds they are already) - and while the killing might continue, the world economy might not really care. Have a look at international markets during WW I and WW II instead of inventing bleak scenarios. Rothschild (a guy with much more money than your or I) used to say "Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets."

The world might reshuffle energy supplies in the months to come and be quite fine with boycotting the Russian fuels. Again - not a lot would happen to the world economy (hopefully they get a bit faster carbon neutral as spin off).

Sure - Putin might press as well the big red button after discovering that his conventional army is just a bunch of unprofessional clowns ... but lets face it, if he does (I leave it up to your judgement whether both he and his generals are suicidal and happy to kill themselves, their families and their people), then an economic depression is the least of our problems.

Overall I do see many more positive scenarios for the world economy than negative scenarios ... but hey - you see what you want to see.

We well might be at the moment in the early parts of the V-shaped Covid event in 2020. Was this the last big depression? If yes, then hey - you well might be right :p;


A lot of might's there

but look at factors immediately present

Huge Fuel cost increases - the casualities from this ?
Inflation
Rising Interest Rates
Weeks of Sharemarkets plummeting
Highly inflated values looking at deflating
High Gold
Global conflict on Europe's doorstep
Economic warfare being raged on a massive scale

Ukraine situation likely will not resolve itself overnight
Massive refugee influxes into EU Countries

Post Covid (if there aren't further variants to follow) things haven't rebounded to any great extent globally
- global supply chain & shipping issues evident

Costs of transportation will start to multiply on back of rising Oil prices

and as for NZ in a backwater downunder dependent on exports and on imports
trading with nations caught up in this..

You have to look at the Reality, not the Mights, or Hope it goes away / de-escalates ;)

and then the factors present in our local gold fish bowl on top

One indicator - our own sharemarket trends can't be wrong - can it ?

[BlackPeter]

A lot of might's there



True ... you don't seem to be familiar with the concept to operate in an uncertain environment.
Bad for any investor - the only thing which is certain is uncertainty :p;



...

but look at factors immediately present

Huge Fuel cost increases - the casualities from this ?
Inflation
Rising Interest Rates
Weeks of Sharemarkets plummeting
Highly inflated values looking at deflating
High Gold
Global conflict on Europe's doorstep
Economic warfare being raged on a massive scale

Ukraine situation likely will not resolve itself overnight
Massive refugee influxes into EU Countries

Post Covid (if there aren't further variants to follow) things haven't rebounded to any great extent globally
- global supply chain & shipping issues evident

Costs of transportation will start to multiply on back of rising Oil prices

and as for NZ in a backwater downunder dependent on exports and on imports
trading with nations caught up in this..

You have to look at the Reality, not the Mights, or Hope it goes away / de-escalates ;)

and then the factors present in our local gold fish bowl on top

One indicator - our own sharemarket trends can't be wrong - can it ?


Huge Fuel cost increases - the casualities from this ?

Sure - if they are maintained ... however from history we know that the worst enemy of high prices are high prices. Additional suppliers will flood the markets and consumers will reduce demand. Works every time.

Inflation
Rising Interest Rates

Yes? So far both are in the same order of magnitude than in any previous classical economic cycle. They rarely end into depressions. Have a brief look into history.

Weeks of Sharemarkets plummeting

Pardon? - So what?

Highly inflated values looking at deflating

I do see some inflated stocks as well as good value stocks. Maybe you look into the wrong stocks / industries?

High Gold

Great time to own gold miners. Which depression?

Global conflict on Europe's doorstep

Well, so far its a local conflict, but we discussed that already.

Economic warfare being raged on a massive scale

Good - what is the problem? Just imagine how all these ceased Russian funds will help to rebuild a much better Ukraine.

Ukraine situation likely will not resolve itself overnight
Massive refugee influxes into EU Countries

Europe used to have a huge problem with an aging and shrinking workforce. All these Ukrainian refugees will be able to support both the European industry as well as the European pension funds .... and hey, they are even welcomed by some of the most racist European countries (i.e. even this is not a problem). Win-win-win!

Post Covid (if there aren't further variants to follow) things haven't rebounded to any great extent globally
- global supply chain & shipping issues evident

Costs of transportation will start to multiply on back of rising Oil prices


Unlikely - global transportation costs are currently hugely inflated and are going to drop over the reminder of the year ... no matter the price of fuel. Do you really believe that the 30 folding of container costs over the last 2 years had anything to do with the price of fuel? This was disruption in the supply chain, which will cease with Covid receding.

You have to look at the Reality, not the Mights, or Hope it goes away / de-escalates ;)


Agree - you have to look at reality. You don't. Always assuming the worst case is not reality.

[nztx]

True ... you don't seem to be familiar with the concept to operate in an uncertain environment.
Bad for any investor - the only thing which is certain is uncertainty :p;




Huge Fuel cost increases - the casualities from this ?

Sure - if they are maintained ... however from history we know know that the worst enemy of high prices are high prices. Additional suppliers will flood the markets and consumers will reduce demand. Works every time.

Inflation
Rising Interest Rates

Yes? So far both are in the same order of magnitude than in any previous classical growth cycle. They don't tend to end into depressions. Have a brief look into history.

Weeks of Sharemarkets plummeting

Pardon? - So what?

Highly inflated values looking at deflating

I do see some inflated stocks as well as good value stocks. Maybe you look into the wrong stocks / industries?

High Gold

Great time to own gold miners. Which depression?

Global conflict on Europe's doorstep

Well, so far its a local conflict, but we discussed that already.

Economic warfare being raged on a massive scale

Good - what is the problem? Just imagine how all these ceased Russian funds will help to rebuild a much better Ukraine.

Ukraine situation likely will not resolve itself overnight
Massive refugee influxes into EU Countries

Europe used to have a huge problem with an aging and shrinking workforce. All these Ukrainian refugees will be able to support both the European industry as well as the European pension funds .... and hey, they are even welcomed by some of the most racist European countries (i.e. even this is not a problem). Win-win-win!

Post Covid (if there aren't further variants to follow) things haven't rebounded to any great extent globally
- global supply chain & shipping issues evident

Costs of transportation will start to multiply on back of rising Oil prices


Unlikely - global transportation costs are currently hugely inflated and are going to drop over the reminder of the year ... no matter the price of fuel. Do you really believe that the 30 folding of container costs over the last 2 years had anything to do with the price of fuel? This was disruption in the supply chain, which will cease with Covid receding.

You have to look at the Reality, not the Mights, or Hope it goes away / de-escalates ;)


Agree - you have to look at reality. You don't. Always assuming the worst case is not reality.


Wrong BP - I've seen what's happening from outset and have Large Insurance in place elsewhere

While many markets are falling - The Hawk is seeing very Large gains & growing daily :)

[winner69]

Rational Irrationality or Predictably Irrational ....who knows

[Panda-NZ-]

Paypal is 1/3 of its peak now.. PE of 26.

[winner69]

Good ol Germans going to save us -

But oil prices pulled back after German chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated Berlin was reluctant to throttle trade he considered of “essential importance” to the European economy.

[bull....]

insane moves again in commodities , markets.
i see the banks in the US have been savaged lately wonder if there's some collateral damage under the hood that is not yet public coming from all these big moves , hedge funds blowing up ?

[kiora]

insane moves again in commodities , markets.
i see the banks in the US have been savaged lately wonder if there's some collateral damage under the hood that is not yet public coming from all these big moves , hedge funds blowing up ?

And then passive funds blowing down ?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

insane moves again in commodities , markets.
i see the banks in the US have been savaged lately wonder if there's some collateral damage under the hood that is not yet public coming from all these big moves , hedge funds blowing up ?

Crazy times indeed. I am still expecting a decent rally in equities, maybe back to SPY 450 range... so many people have turned bearish now that they need wiping out. Maybe one more leg down to flush some more stops. Taking it one day at a time though...

[BlackPeter]

Wrong BP - I've seen what's happening from outset and have Large Insurance in place elsewhere

While many markets are falling - The Hawk is seeing very Large gains & growing daily :)

Good luck with that ....

While hawks might have sharp eyes allowing them to catch rats and mice ... I understand they have as well small brains - unsuitable to process complex systems :p;

[winner69]

Wonder if the RB (and maybe govt agencies as well) will be doing whatever it takes to avoid a repeat of decades of painfully high inflation in the 60’s and 70’s.

Back then nobody said it would have happened ….just as well Orr is saying inflation is transitory and it will be all gone by next year

No worries

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Wonder if the RB (and maybe govt agencies as well) will be doing whatever it takes to avoid a repeat of decades of painfully high inflation in the 60’s and 70’s.

Back then nobody said it would have happened ….just as well Orr is saying inflation is transitory and it will be all gone in next year

No worries

Oh it's next year is it? I must have read their statements wrong as I thought it was last year :eek2:

[bull....]

….just as well Orr is saying inflation is transitory and it will be all gone by next year

No worries

ardern says there is no crisis as well lol

[Ggcc]

ardern says there is no crisis as well lol

It reminds when National said there was no housing crisis. Most sound like a bunch of liars or living in a different world. $5000 extra costs per year is a lot for the average family.

[Beagle]

It reminds when National said there was no housing crisis. Most sound like a bunch of liars or living in a different world. $5000 extra costs per year is a lot for the average family.

Most ordinary families live very close to the limit of their income with spending between 95-100% and are not in a position to absorb an extra $100 per week in costs without having to materially trim costs somewhere else. That's their pain point right there but imagine how European customers are feeling right now about their gas heating bills which are 13 times higher than normal ! (Source CNBC)

[enzed staffy]

Its a sad state of affairs when you cant afford a roof over your head because of a housing crisis (no crisis National) then you cant afford to eat (no crisis Labour) Whats next?

[mcdongle]

Its a sad state of affairs when you cant afford a roof over your head because of a housing crisis (no crisis National) then you cant afford to eat (no crisis Labour) Whats next?

3 Waters buggers up supply??

[bull....]

Russia warns of $300 oil, threatens to cut off European gas if West bans energy imports
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/russia-warns-of-300-oil-if-ban-goes-ahead-threatens-to-cut-off-european-gas.html

and hes drawing up a list of other sanctions too.

wow how much would petrol cost here ? $10 litre. wont be able to afford to drive anymore , might even have to resort to pinching a trolley to get my groceries home ... oh if i can afford those with the freight costs an all

[mcdongle]

Russia has the largest nickel producer in the world as well off the top of my head 230000 tons, Although Vale is not far behind

[winner69]

PIMCO facing zillions of losses if Russia defaults on its debt

And some commentators think it funny (sort off) if Lehman go broke again

Jeez things getting serious

[FTG]

PIMCO facing zillions of losses if Russia defaults on its debt

And some commentators think it funny (sort off) if Lehman go broke again

Jeez things getting serious

I reckon the first "blast wave" of a financial contagion will become apparent on the other side of the Atlantic this time around. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some heavy sweating occurring in some of the Euro insto's Boardrooms right now. Some of them are Donkey-deep with the Ruskies.

[nztx]

I reckon the first "blast wave" of a financial contagion will become apparent on the other side of the Atlantic this time around. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some heavy sweating occurring in some of the Euro insto's Boardrooms right now. Some of them are Donkey-deep with the Ruskies.


Be a few Funds high up the list from what I been reading...

In it deep up to $6 Bln each

A repeat of fast money gains & large Chinese Property developers ? ;)

What could possibly go wrong ? ;)

Wonder if the Fed might be thinking of a Rescue Fund using all the confiscated Russian Billions ? ;)

[nztx]

PIMCO facing zillions of losses if Russia defaults on its debt

And some commentators think it funny (sort off) if Lehman go broke again

Jeez things getting serious


Another GFC on top of Covid Collateral damage ?

We know what the effects of the big Chinese Property developer failing were

[bull....]

Inflation rose 7.9% in February, as food and energy costs push prices to highest in more than 40 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/cpi-inflation-february-2022-.html

this data is before the ukraine invasion :scared: means it be higher still going forward therefore fed have to ramp the tightening quicker or crash the economy so they dont need to raise rates much.

all in all no good for stocks either way

[Rawz]

Inflation rose 7.9% in February, as food and energy costs push prices to highest in more than 40 years


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/cpi-inflation-february-2022-.html

this data is before the ukraine invasion :scared: means it be higher still going forward therefore fed have to ramp the tightening quicker or crash the economy so they dont need to raise rates much.

all in all no good for stocks either way

No good for stocks?

No good for anything...

[Panda-NZ-]

No good for stocks?

No good for anything...

Good for art.

[winner69]

How equity markets did during WW2

[Joshuatree]

Interesting,thanks.Volatility plus.Mkt jumping at shadows eg "Putin fake suggesting talks were progressing .

[nztx]

Good for art.


See many edible paintings down there, by chance ? ;)

[peat]

I reckon the first "blast wave" of a financial contagion will become apparent on the other side of the Atlantic this time around. I wouldn't be surprised if there is some heavy sweating occurring in some of the Euro insto's Boardrooms right now. Some of them are Donkey-deep with the Ruskies.

Deutsche Bank only has a billion, says its been withdrawing since 2014
I'm thinking the US banks have more at risk.

[Dassets]

I ran some numbers yesterday off some creditable data(I won't disclose the source here in case they withdraw it . I was surprised at the level of the data. I used a last price of $40549 per Btc for ease, it is just how the buckets of data are defined. There are 7.4m BTC that owe the holders more than $40549 with cumulative losses of USD$78.3 billion. That is a big % of BTC that are in the red. Now the last sale price is lower than that so the numbers are even worse. Anyone can private message me, I can show you how to derive these numbers. There's a lot more too.

[bull....]

who's ready for another volatile week lol
big fed meeting this week

[bull....]

nz 10 yr hits record high today .... no good for the NZX

[stoploss]

nz 10 yr hits record high today .... no good for the NZX
Can you qualify that a bit better ?

[Ferg]

I believe he was referring to this:
https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/government-bond-yield
and the inverse relationship between government bond rates and the NZX50.

[bull....]

Can you qualify that a bit better ?

ferg answered it and just to add a bit more the higher the bond goes in theory the valuation of all those bond proxy stocks on the nzx get re-rated down. ( probably happen in earnest after div's are paid i reckon.

by the way US 10 yr hit a new high in this march up tonight which can mean rates in NZ follow too. ( most of the time )

[bull....]

other big news overnight affecting markets

US 10 yr up strongly
shenzen in china lockdown .. this is quite a big announcement. see the oil price getting hammered maybe some it due to the china news. ( bet the petrol price in nz doesnt drop lol )

[stoploss]

ferg answered it and just to add a bit more the higher the bond goes in theory the valuation of all those bond proxy stocks on the nzx get re-rated down. ( probably happen in earnest after div's are paid i reckon.

by the way US 10 yr hit a new high in this march up tonight which can mean rates in NZ follow too. ( most of the time )
Thanks I’m well aware of that .
I was more alluding to the “ record high” comment.
Have a look back to 1994/95 and check out what the NZ 10 year yield did .

[GOAT]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

[winner69]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

In America and Probably applies to NZ -

Skyrocketing Oil Prices + Flattening Yield Curve + Fed Policy Mistake = Recession


And

There have been 12 recessions since 1946. 8 have followed major oil price shocks, while a further three have occurred immediately following more modest, but still notable, oil price run-ups… That leaves just one out of twelve recessions that didn’t have any oil fingerprints left at the crime scene. Correlation ≠ Causation? Perhaps, but 11 out of 12 is one hell of a coincidence."

And

NZ yield curve , esp 10 yr v 2yr, getting flatter by the week

[Beagle]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/127990152/painful-economic-times-ahead-as-confidence-plunges
Lowest consumer confidence since this survey began nearly 20 years ago including at any time during the GFC ! so that's a huge heads-up the consumers will be pulling their heads in on discretionary spending.
Yes that's exactly what tends to happen and luxury good manufacturers in Europe have been really beaten up as a result.
I have been 70%+ in cash all year and sleeping pretty well at night. At this point its all about capital preservation in these strange and highly volatile times.

[winner69]

Jeez ….they even putting hard landing in the headlines …..as the RBNZ gets drawn into a ‘squeeze it to death’ battle with inflation


https://www.interest.co.nz/business/114760/david-hargreaves-assesses-economic-landscape-reserve-bank-gets-inexorably-drawn

[Balance]

Oil prices dropping as India, China & Pakistan move to buy discounted Russian oil.

So they buy oil off Russia at a cheaper price (15% to 20% discount) and sell the oil they have contracted to buy from other countries into the markets for a nice profit.

Economics 101 in action.

[winner69]

Oil prices dropping as India, China & Pakistan move to buy discounted Russian oil.

So they buy oil off Russia at a cheaper price (15% to 20% discount) and sell the oil they have contracted to buy from other countries into the markets for a nice profit.

Economics 101 in action.

One advantage of not being too ‘outspoken’ and condemning Russia eh

[Balance]

One advantage of not being too ‘outspoken’ and condemning Russia eh

The West is still buying Russian gas and oil so is in no position to criticise the three countries.

Interesting too that India & China are going to be using LCS (local currency system) to buy the oil - bilateral trade using rouble/rupee & renminbi/rouble.

The beginning of the end of the US$ as the global trade currency?

Go short US$!

[JBmurc]

The West is still buying Russian gas and oil so is in no position to criticise the three countries.

Interesting too that India & China are going to be using LCS (local currency system) to buy the oil - bilateral trade using rouble/rupee & renminbi/rouble.

The beginning of the end of the US$ as the global trade currency?

Go short US$!

China has just signed a $10 billion contract with Saudi Arabia to build refineries in China that will be supplied with Russian oil.

[Balance]

China has just signed a $10 billion contract with Saudi Arabia to build refineries in China that will be supplied with Russian oil.

Russian cost of oil production is estimated at between US$30 to US$40 so plenty of scope for oil price to fall back towards US$60 in the months ahead?

China will be driving a hard bargain knowing how desperate Russia is.

[Bjauck]

One advantage of not being too ‘outspoken’ and condemning Russia eh Sure..as Putin's Russia lay waste to towns, starve residents, shoot fleeing families and target hospitals, schools and residential buildings, they look away. I wonder if they will make sure their history books remove condemnation of British imperialism.

[Bjauck]

Russian cost of oil production is estimated at between US$30 to US$40 so plenty of scope for oil price to fall back towards US$60 in the months ahead?

China will be driving a hard bargain knowing how desperate Russia is. China may be the winner out of Western sanctions. The dictatorships may get cheap oil. The environment may get a load more pollution?

[Balance]

China may be the winner out of Western sanctions. The dictatorships may get cheap oil. The environment may get a load more pollution?

If the West is deadly serious about really punishing Russia with sanctions, cut off all purchases of all oil, gas and minerals/metals like palladium & platinum from Russia.

Until then, the West is hampered in imposing its will on the likes of India & China to not buy from Russia.

The three countries are simply substituting oil from other countries with cheaper Russian oil - why would there be more pollution?

[Muse]

If the West is deadly serious about really punishing Russia with sanctions, cut off all purchases of all oil, gas and minerals/metals like palladium & platinum from Russia.

Until then, the West is hampered in imposing its will on the likes of India & China to not buy from Russia.

The three countries are simply substituting oil from other countries with cheaper Russian oil - why would there be more pollution?

a handful of countries banning oil imports from Russia doesn't do much in the medium or long term - doesn't have anywhere the same impact as formal sanctions. It's just a reshuffle of buyers and sellers of oil. Russia finds other outlets, like in india and china, the oil they were previously buying gets displaced, sloshing around back into america and britain. its virtue signaling, really. lets not forget oil was already going up before this happened

[bull....]

Oil drops again, now more than 27% below recent high
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/oil-drops-again-now-more-than-25percent-below-recent-high.html


ah but the petrol price at the pump never goes down as quick as they pump it up

[BlackPeter]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

Nobody can predict how bad this inflation will get. However - if it does get bad, then you will be afterwards glad about any assets you did hold. I am talking about holding shares of good companies, real estate, gold and other (easy saleable) valuables, and of course any tools you need to do a productive job.

100% cash sounds risky in this context - better don't miss the bottom ...

In the old times you could utilize the (paper based) cash after inflationary periods still as wall paper or on the loo (to pick your bottom :p ). You could use it as well as collectable. Not sure, though what good electronic cash might be after a decent inflation.

[winner69]

when the talk was all about a big recession coming post GFC an extremely worried workmate asked waht happens during a recessions ...... I asked him how he managed in the late 1990s and he said just fine and then I told him we had a recession then ...... oh shucks a recession and I didn't even notice.and went away happy with life again

[Entrep]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

In my experience timing the market is very hard (a lesson that's taken me maybe 15 years and many $$$ to learn). Time in the market is what matters.

[BlackPeter]

Nobody can predict how bad this inflation will get. However - if it does get bad, then you will be afterwards glad about any assets you did hold. I am talking about holding shares of good companies, real estate, gold and other (easy saleable) valuables, and of course any tools you need to do a productive job.

100% cash sounds risky in this context - better don't miss the bottom ...

In the old times you could utilize the (paper based) cash after inflationary periods still as wall paper or on the loo (to pick your bottom :p ). You could use it as well as collectable. Not sure, though what good electronic cash might be after a decent inflation.

Just to give you an idea about the worth of cash during and after an hyper inflation: these are 20 million Deutsch Mark, which my grandmother gave me.

At the day of issue (1. September 1923) you could probably buy a loaf of bread with the banknote. A week later you needed already several of them to pay for your breakfast.

Even today its not much worth (maybe a couple of dollars) ... they just printed too many of them at the time.

13623

Note: cash is not always king ...

[Rawz]

Just to give you an idea about the worth of cash during and after an hyper inflation: these are 20 million Deutsch Mark, which my grandmother gave me.

At the day of issue (1. September 1923) you could probably buy a loaf of bread with the banknote. A week later you needed already several of them to pay for your breakfast.

Even today its not much worth (maybe a couple of dollars) ... they just printed too many of them at the time.

13623

Note: cash is not always king ...

Thats pretty cool BP!

[Biscuit]

In my experience timing the market is very hard (a lesson that's taken me maybe 15 years and many $$$ to learn). Time in the market is what matters.

I agree with that to a large extent. Always have enough cash so you are never forced to sell and a bit more to play with. Then don't sweat the ups and downs.

[percy]

I agree with that to a large extent. Always have enough cash so you are never forced to sell and a bit more to play with. Then don't sweat the ups and downs.

Sage advice.

[Beagle]

when the talk was all about a big recession coming post GFC an extremely worried workmate asked waht happens during a recessions ...... I asked him how he managed in the late 1990s and he said just fine and then I told him we had a recession then ...... oh shucks a recession and I didn't even notice.and went away happy with life again

Lowest consumer confidence since records began in this survey including at any time during the GFC file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/ANZ-ConsumerConfidence-20220304%20(1).pdf
A lead indicator that people will be pulling their heads in on discretionary spending in a big way.

Just as well we're all immune for this because we all have plenty ;)