Black Monday

[Panda-NZ-]

If omnicron is found to have low symptoms could be good for markets.

[bull....]

Lol I just finished watching Closing Bell on CNBC on my Skybox. I treat it like a sports match so don't know what markets are doing going into it. Spoiler Alert....

...S&P has closed at a new record high.

Wow just ����. WTF happened to the mini meltdown a few days ago. And oil is back.

Monster (in relation to my modest means) dirty old oil dividends coming my way this month. There will be Dividends!!! (Oil movie reference)

looks like the mini meltdown is back :scared: anyway the volatility continues

here's bloomberg things to watch in 2022. im sure there be plenty other things pop up as well next year not listed in there take

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? These Are the Biggest Economic Risks for 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-13/omicron-inflation-evergrande-10-biggest-risks-to-the-global-economy-in-2022

[FTG]

Coincidentally, I recently opined here that 4600 on the S & P 500 is a significant level, and ~ 4750 was the next level to watch on the bull trend. Well, this week it hit an ATH of 4745, but then reversed to 4595 (with the biggest 1 day fall this year) to sit back right on the significant level. Also leaving a Bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. It seems that the market is treating those levels with some respect.

....and as at today this reasonably tight trading range (4600 - 4750) is STILL in play. The 4600 level especially is still being respected by the market, with the market bouncing off it today, yet again - making an intraday low.

FED talk tomorrow could be direction setting??

[bull....]

....and as at today this reasonably tight trading range (4600 - 4750) is STILL in play. The 4600 level especially is still being respected by the market, with the market bouncing off it today, yet again - making an intraday low.

FED talk tomorrow could be direction setting??

4500 key level im watching.

another interesting thing at the moment is insider selling

SEC Chair Gary Gensler wants stronger insider trading rules as executive stock sales hit records
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/sec-wants-stronger-insider-trading-rules-as-elon-musk-jeff-bezos-sell-billions-in-stock.html

[bull....]

another important consideration for todays fed meeting


Wholesale prices measure rose 9.6% in November from a year ago, the fastest pace on record
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/wholesale-prices-measure-rises-9point6percent-in-november-from-a-year-ago-the-fastest-pace-on-record.html


:scared: might want to buy everything you want now before price rises on everything go up big next yr

[Rawz]

another important consideration for todays fed meeting


Wholesale prices measure rose 9.6% in November from a year ago, the fastest pace on record
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/wholesale-prices-measure-rises-9point6percent-in-november-from-a-year-ago-the-fastest-pace-on-record.html


:scared: might want to buy everything you want now before price rises on everything go up big next yr

Like debt. Get lots of debt.

[bull....]

Like debt. Get lots of debt.

yes i like debt in a rising inflation environment it gets cheaper over time , and i dont see rates going to high this cycle. anyway markets didnt mind the fed slightly more hawkish tone

[Biscuit]

yes i like debt in a rising inflation environment it gets cheaper over time , and i dont see rates going to high this cycle. anyway markets didnt mind the fed slightly more hawkish tone

Or wait until the cycle turns down, investment assets drop in price and interest rates are brought down then load up on debt? Otherwise you could find yourself climbing uphill into a headwind with a heavy load.

[Bobdn]

Is that sleigh bells I can hear? Is Santa coming?

[Muse]

Is that sleigh bells I can hear? Is Santa coming?

Santa better budget on spending two weeks in MIQ this year

[Bobdn]

Hopefully he'll make it to the NZX50...no MIQ for the S&P 500 so it's easier to get to

[bull....]

markets being rational now ? nasdaq getting hammered i dont understand they only go up

forgot to mention did anyone notice the rotation last 2-3 weeks into utilities wow somethings up ? not the nz market utilities the us utilities

[JohnnyTheHorse]

markets being rational now ? nasdaq getting hammered i dont understand they only go up

forgot to mention did anyone notice the rotation last 2-3 weeks into utilities wow somethings up ? not the nz market utilities the us utilities

I was watching the reaction yesterday and wondering whether it was largely due to hedges unwinding. Todays action would suggest that may have been the case. With rates rising I wouldn't expect a green year for the US markets next year.

[Bobdn]

Santa being waved off, disappointing. Oil still heading up so a silver lining.

[bull....]

I was watching the reaction yesterday and wondering whether it was largely due to hedges unwinding. Todays action would suggest that may have been the case. With rates rising I wouldn't expect a green year for the US markets next year.

i think your right , lots of people had shorts/puts on for the fed meet so someone caused a short squeeze yesterday to squeeze them into covering which fed on it self. and your right about the markets they dont usually do well in a rate tightening cycle

[LEMON]

i think your right , lots of people had shorts/puts on for the fed meet so someone caused a short squeeze yesterday to squeeze them into covering which fed on it self. and your right about the markets they dont usually do well in a rate tightening cycle

Bank of England unexpectadly raised rates and some speculate that's why the US market is wary,
US next then the European central bank

[bottomfeeder]

I look at using interest rates to control inflation like a mobius strip. Once you get around enough, you are back where you started. When everyone starts to increase interest rates, inflation will get worse. Inflation is like a room full of mousetraps, once the start to go off, its so difficult to slow it down. I can see as interest rates start to rise, prices and wages will rise even more to offset the increase. Only a very large and fast increase in interest rates will start to control inflation. Then we will know it as house prices come back, and the economy will be stagnant. I saw it way back around the middle 80s with Rogernomics. It was a most unpalatable move for everyone. Cant see any government acting that responsibly anytime soon. Just my opinion. I am probably a lone voice in the wilderness with this one.

[LEMON]

I look at using interest rates to control inflation like a mobius strip. Once you get around enough, you are back where you started. When everyone starts to increase interest rates, inflation will get worse. Inflation is like a room full of mousetraps, once the start to go off, its so difficult to slow it down. I can see as interest rates start to rise, prices and wages will rise even more to offset the increase. Only a very large and fast increase in interest rates will start to control inflation. Then we will know it as house prices come back, and the economy will be stagnant. I saw it way back around the middle 80s with Rogernomics. It was a most unpalatable move for everyone. Cant see any government acting that responsibly anytime soon. Just my opinion. I am probably a lone voice in the wilderness with this one.

BOE is raising interest rates due to OMI slowing down labour and Consumer rates in the UK, employment figures may fall but looking to curb inflation, they are expecting millions of cases in the coming weeks of OMI and US may be bracing itself for the same,

[bull....]

Bank of England unexpectadly raised rates and some speculate that's why the US market is wary,
US next then the European central bank

some might argue the US is behind the curve :scared: as far as raising rates goes.
tricky situation for all for sure
rising inflation and to combat it we need to slow growth and money printing
ominicron just going to make supply chains worse and maybe inflation get worse ahh
what they gonna do and what the markets going to do :scared: 2022 the yr of big swings ?

[LEMON]

some might argue the US is behind the curve :scared: as far as raising rates goes.
tricky situation for all for sure
rising inflation and to combat it we need to slow growth and money printing
ominicron just going to make supply chains worse and maybe inflation get worse ahh
what they gonna do and what the markets going to do :scared: 2022 the yr of big swings ?

Absolutely big swings lol

Turkeys financial system collapsed
Countries losing faith in the US dollar as the reserve currency
US to stop stimulus soon, interest rates rising, OMI set to spread, hospitals overwhelmed, more lockdown's.
Germany, Brazil set for negative GDP.
A substantial amount of record-high debts so on so forth

[LEMON]

Largest Hedge Fund holder Ray Dalio, fires warning shots

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/ray-dalio-warns-the-feds-hands-are-tied-and-that-higher-u-s-inflation-is-sticking-around-democracy-maybe-not-11639578847

[Panda-NZ-]

Oh dear, futures are red.

In saying that they're so unpredictable they will probably turn green later on.

[Bobdn]

USD is surging. So much for the demise of the dollar. King 👑 Dollar still reigns in times of trouble lol

[Peitro]

Poop or pop

[bull....]

Poop or pop

looks like a pop
anyway next days to end of mth is historically the most bullish period for wall st. lets see if history repeats.

I should add on a small sample historically when you have a very volatile december on this small sample january has been positive so again lets see and remain nimble.

I still see a volatile yr 2022 as my pick overall

[Bobdn]

A few more days to go.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/23/santa-claus-may-be-on-his-way-to-stock-investors-in-the-week-ahead.html

This has been a fun thread. Lets hope the other markets start pulling their weight in the months ahead. Happy New Year to you all.

[bull....]

jan another volatile mth again so far.

whats that saying

dont fight the fed

[Muse]

NOTHING to see here folks - all is NORMAL - move along .....


13406

brought to you by a large scale asset purchase programme from a reserve bank near you.
Hannibal is at the gate, ya'll, when these wind up. Use your eye to the line of best fit to see where international interest rates will be. Real estate, long dated tech, RV, and a lot of retail will be punished in due course.

[Aaron]

NOTHING to see here folks - all is NORMAL - move along .....



brought to you by a large scale asset purchase programme from a reserve bank near you.
Hannibal is at the gate, ya'll, when these wind up. Use your eye to the line of best fit to see where international interest rates will be. Real estate, long dated tech, RV, and a lot of retail will be punished in due course.

It highlights how extreme monetary policy is but will central banks be able to change course? Destroying the value of money might be easier than letting house prices fall. Everyone I talk to seems happy or oblivious to it. A dollar might be worth 10% less by the end of the year but who would know? A 10% fall in house prices would be front page news.

[Rawz]

NOTHING to see here folks - all is NORMAL - move along .....



brought to you by a large scale asset purchase programme from a reserve bank near you.
Hannibal is at the gate, ya'll, when these wind up. Use your eye to the line of best fit to see where international interest rates will be. Real estate, long dated tech, RV, and a lot of retail will be punished in due course.

That is an amazing chart! USA inflating away their debt problem and at the same time exporting their inflation around the world. Buffett does say- "never bet against America"

[bull....]

fed well behind the curve expecting the unexpected this yr

[Bobdn]

The NZD took a monster dump and oil exploded "to the upside" (it went up, lol).

Black Monday for 99.2 per cent of all vehicle owners and 100 per cent of all consumers.

Hmm...the governmedia is strangely silent about the highest fuel prices this country has ever seen. Its much higher than in 2018 when the governmedia was very keen to make all sorts of announcements...and accusations.

[nztx]

The NZD took a monster dump and oil exploded "to the upside" (it went up, lol).

Black Monday for 99.2 per cent of all vehicle owners and 100 per cent of all consumers.

Hmm...the governmedia is strangely silent about the highest fuel prices this country has ever seen. Its much higher than in 2018 when the governmedia was very keen to make all sorts of announcements...and accusations.


Could be something to do with Govt's large bloated rake off included in the end price, with all the extra
nonsense add-ons they've thrown in on top while in session, hoping it wouldn't be noticed ;)

[maclir]

The NZD took a monster dump and oil exploded "to the upside" (it went up, lol).

Black Monday for 99.2 per cent of all vehicle owners and 100 per cent of all consumers.

Hmm...the governmedia is strangely silent about the highest fuel prices this country has ever seen. Its much higher than in 2018 when the governmedia was very keen to make all sorts of announcements...and accusations.

You say highest, is this in absolute terms, or have you taken into account inflation? Also what is the cost of the fuel before GST, NLTF and other levies?

Are you advocating for government intervention of some sort?

[Bobdn]

No, no. The last thing we need from this governmedia is another market intervention which seems to always end up making things worse. The new responsible lending laws for example, have caused real issues for so many people.

However, if fuel prices keep rising, the Governmedia is going to have to blame someone else so will again initiate a series of announcements and reviews to find the guilty party. Anything to take attention away from the monster taxes that nztx mentions above (good point nztx) and things like the oil and gas exploration ban. Now of course I realize that NZ has no control over oil prices but less than two years ago the Governmedia took ownership of fuel prices and introduced measures it said would create greater competition in the fuel market and reduce the price of fuel - up to 30 cents a litre in some cases (lol). So they can't really throw their hands up now and say "it's nothing to do with us!".

In terms of Black Monday, I'm guessing (what would I know so this is just a guess) that out of control energy prices and inflation in general will be kind of a big deal over the next few years and dominate every aspect of politics and be the major factor in investment returns.

[BlackPeter]

No, no. The last thing we need from this governmedia is another market intervention which seems to always end up making things worse. The new responsible lending laws for example, have caused real issues for so many people.

However, if fuel prices keep rising, the Governmedia is going to have to blame someone else so will again initiate a series of announcements and reviews to find the guilty party. Anything to take attention away from the monster taxes that nztx mentions above (good point nztx) and things like the oil and gas exploration ban. Now of course I realize that NZ has no control over oil prices but less than two years ago the Governmedia took ownership of fuel prices and introduced measures it said would create greater competition in the fuel market and reduce the price of fuel - up to 30 cents a litre in some cases (lol). So they can't really throw their hands up now and say "it's nothing to do with us!".

In terms of Black Monday, I'm guessing (what would I know so this is just a guess) that out of control energy prices and inflation in general will be kind of a big deal over the next few years and dominate every aspect of politics and be the major factor in investment returns.

Is this the new "beat up the government" thread mixed with conspiracy theories?

Isn't it interesting that right wing political losers always tend to finger-point to the media instead of acknowledging that it just was their fault that they didn't manage to set up a convincing alternative last election time.

This is a democracy, work harder and provide a viable alternative and positive constructive opposition instead of just blaming others for the weaknesses of your ilk.

[Bobdn]

@Maclir You may have already seen this by now. This article sets out just how high petrol has got and yes, even accounting for inflation, we are at an historical high for petrol

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/127529230/how-do-nzs-current-high-petrol-prices-compare-with-historical-highs

Brent has just ticked over to the highest price since 2014. Exciting times for sure.

And on top of all that, US futures are down big.

[Panda-NZ-]

Where's the demand for all this petrol?

Break up the cartel...

[nztx]

Where's the demand for all this petrol?

Break up the cartel...


No no .. Taxing them out of existence with every non descript duty, levy and other add-on in the name
of paying some other unconnected dreamed up excuse should do the trick .. have to follow the official
line, don't we ? ;)

Don't worry about looking at who pays the inflated trumped cost at the end of the line .. that doesn't matter one ioata either ;)

Has an Auckland Cycleways levy been added & attached yet or does that come out Auckland's chop of the regional action passed on ? :)

[Panda-NZ-]

It's almost as if these same issues are happening in America too or something.

I was meaning the middle-east/russia cartel (maybe a tax on dictators would be good).

[nztx]

It's almost as if these same issues are happening in America too or something.

I was meaning the middle-east/russia cartel (maybe a tax on dictators would be good).


The ones who dream up these curious Taxes & levies can't be paying enough Tax themselves.

A large Stupid Ideas & Dumb Schemes Tax should fix them

Why should Joe Public have to cough up extra for all the questionable add-ons ? ;)

[nztx]

With NZR abandoning NZ for Fuel Refining onshore here, surely the Cartels are all gone from our shores ? ;)

If they haven't, then why have Fafoi & mates not already woken up and dealt to them ? :)

Wonder how they will fare dealing to Offshore based Wholesale Supplier Cartels ? :)

Too hard, Didn't See It, or didn't want to know ? :)

Perhaps a new Cartel Import Tax may fix the job to pull them into a Govt prescribed straight line? ;)

Guess who will be paying that on top too, if it ever happened ? :)

[Panda-NZ-]

I wonder what this could be over, hmmm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv08kNB_9S8

[nztx]

I wonder what this could be over, hmmm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv08kNB_9S8


Bet their Fuel prices are still a shadow of those in NZ ;)

[bull....]

energy the best sector to be in so far this yr
$100 oil they saying whats that about $3 + at the pump in NZ , jeez unheard off i have to park the boat in storage at those prices

[LaserEyeKiwi]

energy the best sector to be in so far this yr
$100 oil they saying whats that about $3 + at the pump in NZ , jeez unheard off i have to park the boat in storage at those prices

EVs continue to look like better investments everyday - might finally have to cave and buy that tesla this year.

[bull....]

another red day again in NZ ? starting the year off as last yr finished as a poor performing market. at least so far this yr we are in good company with most markets in the red this yr.

whats that saying

so goes jan so goes the yr

[JohnnyTheHorse]

another red day again in NZ ? starting the year off as last yr finished as a poor performing market. at least so far this yr we are in good company with most markets in the red this yr.

whats that saying

so goes jan so goes the yr

I expect a very challenging year for typical broad based buy and hold strategies. Don't fight increasing rates. Definitely pockets of value in select stocks however, so there is money to be made. So the sky certainly isn't falling, but good stock pickers will be the winners.

[JBmurc]

energy the best sector to be in so far this yr
$100 oil they saying whats that about $3 + at the pump in NZ , jeez unheard off i have to park the boat in storage at those prices

Been my thought since MAY last year I've been shifting away from the PM Gold Sector to energy metals - U308, Lithium , Ni , Copper ... and for the first time in many Years Loading up in O&G companies .. IMHO these resources will continue to perform as other like TECH, banking fall

[Panda-NZ-]

IDNA which has a PE ratio below the slug DJI is taking a hammering for some reason.

I may as well take on more, idk.

[Bobdn]

Good for you JB. I was piling into oil in August/September 2020. That's sounds great but I completely mistimed my entry (naturally!) and was down 20 per cent at one point. If you check out the charts of XLE/VDE/IXC in that period, there was a big whoosh down and then the vaccines came along. It's sunny uplands now of course.

A lot of NZ funds are proudly ESG and have near ZERO exposure to energy, the best performing sector last year and this year to date. As long as energy is working, market down turns will be particularly hard for these funds. And if we have a 10 year commodity super cycle, then it's even worse for them. Of course the oil price could collapse tomorrow so this is far from a one way bet.

There was a good commentator on World Wide Exchange last night who said we really don't want oil much higher than it is now. $100 oil will bring too much drilling.

[bull....]

some of the best returns have been from oil , coal , uranium etc dirty energy.

last night energy up us only sector , today asx energy up preety much only sector , oil futures painting another high as we speak heading to 100 this yr maybe even this half ? on the plus

the higher they go the better alternative green look eh

[Joshuatree]

The higher oil goes the more serious we will get going green rather than all this greenwashing,so go high oil( am holding a few energy stocks ATM)

[Panda-NZ-]

The higher oil goes the more serious we will get going green rather than all this greenwashing,so go high oil( am holding a few energy stocks ATM)

So much constant roadworks popping up across NZ. Mainly because of the damage from trucks.

NZ should place more of its freight on trains.

[mcdongle]

The higher oil goes the more serious we will get going green rather than all this greenwashing,so go high oil( am holding a few energy stocks ATM)

Where are the affordable vehicles to do this

[Panda-NZ-]

An electric bicycle ?

[Panda-NZ-]

Maybe art and coins are something which can protect from inflation.

search ancient roman or greek coins on ebay.

*Needs to be legitimate ones though.

[nztx]

An electric bicycle ?


the way things are going - it may be a pushbike or skateboard for many :)

might be some of the same ones who still haven't got their promised homes :)

[pedro.nz]

So much constant roadworks popping up across NZ. Mainly because of the damage from trucks.

NZ should place more of its freight on trains.

Totally agree - rail is VERY VERY under-utilised infrastructure :mad ;:

[glennj]

Totally agree - rail is VERY VERY under-utilised infrastructure :mad ;:

Many of the bad roads are where there are no railways so in many instances using railways is no alternative. Some years back when dealing with NZ Rail re bulk freight they were very unforthcoming in wanting us to pay for rail wagons and pay for sidings. It was far cheaper and more convenient to use road transport even though we would have been happy to use rail if it stacked up and we did so elsewhere. Lack of state highway maintenance especially bridging has been a disgrace in recent years! There are bridges that should and would have been replaced years ago that keep being deferred by the current administration.

[mcdongle]

An electric bicycle ?

Ive asked the Mrs if she can get an electric bike to do the weekly shopping on.. I cannot print the reply.

[Jay]

Ive asked the Mrs if she can get an electric bike to do the weekly shopping on.. I cannot print the reply.
Although my wife has an e-bike I'm sure I'd get the same kind of answer as well mcdongle!

[Panda-NZ-]

Well then don't say that there's not an alternative or that petrol is some kind of "necessity".

Electric scooters are another one with decent range.

[mfd]

I do our weekly shop by bike, quite straightforward to fit everything in a couple of pannier bags and maybe a bungee cord for bulky items. Cheaper, bit of fresh air and exercise, and no stress parking the car. It's a huge waste of energy taking a car with you just to pick up a couple of bags of food.

[mcdongle]

I do our weekly shop by bike, quite straightforward to fit everything in a couple of pannier bags and maybe a bungee cord for bulky items. Cheaper, bit of fresh air and exercise, and no stress parking the car. It's a huge waste of energy taking a car with you just to pick up a couple of bags of food.

I have four children slightly different amount to carry home [dont suggest more trips as i will not ask her]

[bull....]

bike riding be very popular soon following the petrol price at $4 a litre. is that after russia invades or the houthis blow up every pipeline in saudi.

anyway the nzx is wanting to be the leader again as the worst market in the world :scared: currently only being beaten by rut and nasdaq

[mike2020]

That link here the other day. Increased fuel prices by $1 and the US consumption falls enough to make the world carbon neutral. So that isn't going to happen.

[JBmurc]

Good for you JB. I was piling into oil in August/September 2020. That's sounds great but I completely mistimed my entry (naturally!) and was down 20 per cent at one point. If you check out the charts of XLE/VDE/IXC in that period, there was a big whoosh down and then the vaccines came along. It's sunny uplands now of course.

A lot of NZ funds are proudly ESG and have near ZERO exposure to energy, the best performing sector last year and this year to date. As long as energy is working, market down turns will be particularly hard for these funds. And if we have a 10 year commodity super cycle, then it's even worse for them. Of course the oil price could collapse tomorrow so this is far from a one way bet.

There was a good commentator on World Wide Exchange last night who said we really don't want oil much higher than it is now. $100 oil will bring too much drilling.

Well this is the problem ... how slow and hard is it to build a house in NZ at present(this is not just a NZ problem) ....or Buy a new car (we have been waiting for 8months for new "Kia Sorento")

Even though we are living through a so called "Great Pandemic" the earth gains more than 1mill humans per week .... add in the amounts of dirty poor rural folks coming into cities in the likes of CHINA -India ,African nations etc ... they all want to have what the Yanks have.. Cars ...

I heard on CNBC from an expert energy analyst ...that they see higher daily oil demands next year than pre-COVID !!!

Also add in the picture we have heads of Energy exporter nations stating a dire need of continue investment of $500bill per year just to keep pre-covid production demands meet ...

But as we have seen from may head of nations ...the talk of no need to invest in dirty fossil fuels ..are own knobs in power ...call for the stopping of O&G exploration in NZ etc ...

[Monarch]

Expensive fuel prevents all from owning fossil fuel cars, problem solved right JB? Let them cycle, I heard there is an oversupply of ride share bikes in China so they shouldn't have any problems. Of greater concern is the social unrest closer to home that a spike in fuel prices could have. 91 is up at least 50 cents in the last few years, the French have rioted for less...

[bull....]

bit of a hammering again on the nasdaq and bitcoin getting a good pounding showing a negative divergence on the RSI. On CNBC they were raising some good points about ark innovation funds how concentrated they are in some stocks ... could be a worry if there a rush on redemptions as its so big now ? Can a ETF blow up ?

well since my post about ark being ready to implode nearly a year ago it has panned out as thought , even doesnt look like the end of the carnage yet

[huxley]

well since my post about ark being ready to implode nearly a year ago it has panned out as thought , even doesnt look like the end of the carnage yet

Ha, watching the ARKK collapse has been great no? There was so much chatter on the FB investment groups in Dec 20-Jan 21 with punters moving their KS over the the Nikko AM ARK fund, strangely quiet now!

[causecelebre]

Ha, watching the ARKK collapse has been great no?

Why the schedenfreude man? I guess you missed the 286% pump in 2020

[bull....]

after being up big US markets now all in the red , usually not a good sign. 4500 big support if / when it goes could get ugly.

by the way russell has broken down from its 6 mth old consolidation. not good sign

[huxley]

Why the schedenfreude man? I guess you missed the 286% pump in 2020

Haha, it was exactly that ‘fear of missing out’ which prompted a lot of people to move their KS over, right at the peak of the bubble. It would be interesting to know what the average returns for the fund are for investors.

[mfd]

Haha, it was exactly that ‘fear of missing out’ which prompted a lot of people to move their KS over, right at the peak of the bubble. It would be interesting to know what the average returns for the fund are for investors.

The answer is very poor.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1071658/arkk-an-object-lesson-in-how-not-to-invest

[JohnnyTheHorse]

after being up big US markets now all in the red , usually not a good sign. 4500 big support if / when it goes could get ugly.

by the way russell has broken down from its 6 mth old consolidation. not good sign

Very very weak! Those 5 & 15min RSI are very juicy though, so in futures contracts for an oversold bounce!

[huxley]

The answer is very poor.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1071658/arkk-an-object-lesson-in-how-not-to-invest

Yikes! Thanks for the link. That’s for the ETF, but I guess the KS fund will have produced a similar outcome so far, all for a ~1.3% management fee! It’s been a good lesson in FOMO and reversion to the mean..

[Bobdn]

This sell off feels nasty. I'm pretty much fully invested so have to take my lumps in this round. Yes, I could sell my small allocation of bonds to reinvest but I'm not doing that unless we see a 20 per cent drop or more in the major indexes. Looking at a 5 year chart of the S&P 500, this recent action hardly registers.

[winner69]

Jeremy Grantham Doubles Down on Crash Call, Says Selloff Has Started

He says 50% crash

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/grantham-doubles-down-on-crash-call-says-selloff-has-started

[Bobdn]

Cool, thanks. Definitely keeping what little dry powder I have dry.

[Panda-NZ-]

China's already been hit hard with Xi's common prosperity edict.

Their stocks didn't fall much after corona but did after GFC.
Chile, turkey ETFs also beaten down.

[bull....]

if you believe biden he reckons putin going to invade ukraine .

oil shock anyone as russia second biggest oil exporter

Oil prices have already shot up (https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/energy/oil-prices/index.html) to seven-year highs in recent days. A conflict between Russia and Ukraine (https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/18/europe/ukraine-intelligence-russia-military-build-up-intl/index.html), which the White House has warned could be imminent, would have the potential to drive them much higher.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/20/business/gas-prices-russia-ukraine-putin/index.html

[Panda-NZ-]

They have a small window of a few weeks due to the weather.

https://www.wionews.com/world/biden-enlists-meteorologists-to-predict-russias-ukraine-invasion-plan-report-444048

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10391665/Putin-delayed-Ukraine-invasion-mild-winter-melted-icy-ground-advisers-say.html

The modern battle of Agincourt .

[Joshuatree]

Cashed in re 10% of my shares this week,taking profits and building more cash as a precaution ,less risk for me now and some great lower entry opps later hopefully.

[Swala]

Cashed in re 10% of my shares this week,taking profits and building more cash as a precaution ,less risk for me now and some great lower entry opps later hopefully.

Just done exactly the same today. Got a bad feeling at the moment. Too many domestic and international issues that are more likely to worsen than improve in the near to mid term.

[alokdhir]

Cashed in re 10% of my shares this week,taking profits and building more cash as a precaution ,less risk for me now and some great lower entry opps later hopefully.

Will be very surprised to see much lower levels then this Friday in this year !!!

[Old mate]

That's a big call. Did you buy today?

[Joshuatree]

That's a big call. Did you buy today?

Yes i agree.Inflation ain't transitory,energy will keep going up,contracts when they rollover,the price at the pump will shock people ,everything will go up especially the price of food,wages etc etc.Itmay not happen overnite but it will happen......imo

[Rawz]

Yes i agree.Inflation ain't transitory,energy will keep going up,contracts when they rollover,the price at the pump will shock people ,everything will go up especially the price of food,wages etc etc.Itmay not happen overnite but it will happen......imo

Everything will go up including stocks revenue lines. Only thing that won’t go up is cash

[Rawz]

Ha, watching the ARKK collapse has been great no? There was so much chatter on the FB investment groups in Dec 20-Jan 21 with punters moving their KS over the the Nikko AM ARK fund, strangely quiet now!

It's kinda sad thou. There was a post on a FB group yesterday with one person asking what to do now that their kiwisaver is down 40% because of this high risk ark bs. Clearly didnt know what he was investing in, likely followed some dumb post on FB back when people were posting about mega returns during arks glory days. Others post screenshots of their kiwisavers down 40% as well, in some sick form of solidarity. Then all the fan boys come out and say hold, buy more, just a dip, long term view etc. No actual fundamentals stated, just throwaway lines. One person said $80k down in actual dollars, his profile pic suggested he was late 30's. sad! Kiwisaver is supposed to plod along and compound at 8% every year for decades. Double digit returns some years for a bonus.

If I was to, I would only put a small amount of my own managed portfolio (2%) into an ark fund. But would never ever put my nest egg kiwisaver fund into it, let alone 100% of it!!

[Drew95]

Cashed in re 10% of my shares this week,taking profits and building more cash as a precaution ,less risk for me now and some great lower entry opps later hopefully.

Cashed in 50% of my shares yesterday. Been accumulating BBOZ:ASX and SNAS:ASX. Time will tell if that was a wise thing to do.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It's kinda sad thou. There was a post on a FB group yesterday with one person asking what to do now that their kiwisaver is down 40% because of this high risk ark bs. Clearly didnt know what he was investing in, likely followed some dumb post on FB back when people were posting about mega returns during arks glory days. Others post screenshots of their kiwisavers down 40% as well, in some sick form of solidarity. Then all the fan boys come out and say hold, buy more, just a dip, long term view etc. No actual fundamentals stated, just throwaway lines. One person said $80k down in actual dollars, his profile pic suggested he was late 30's. sad! Kiwisaver is supposed to plod along and compound at 8% every year for decades. Double digit returns some years for a bonus.

If I was to, I would only put a small amount of my own managed portfolio (2%) into an ark fund. But would never ever put my nest egg kiwisaver fund into it, let alone 100% of it!!

Suckers/mis-informed investors happen in every bubble cycle - chasing the overnight riches which inevitably turn out to be trash. I would throw all those ****co/SPACs in with the crypto/NFT mania as the bubble this time that is rightfully bursting.

[percy]

I am getting very excited looking forward to "PYOTBD" Percy's year of the big dividends.
Kicks off with SEK's 13cps fully imputed on the 23rd of Feb.Bought more SEK on Thursday.
I expect increased dividends from HGH and SFF [Silver Fern Farms] .
Steady dividends from GNE and SPK.
Perhaps modest divies from DGC and STU.
And a few good divies from a number of Aussie small caps I hold.ACF,ADA,JYC,PTB,SEQ,SHM,and XRf.

[Bobdn]

Excellent. Jeremy Siegel definitely thinks dividend payers are the place to be during these troubled, high inflationary, times.

@Rawz. I can't take my eye off Ark. I agree that's it's fine to have an allocation of high risk money in a portfolio upwards of 5 per cent max in my case but ones whole kiwisaver fund? The AARK etf has certainly "disrupted" people's retirement accounts over the last year. To be honest if the people are mostly in their 20s and early 30s it will be a great financial lesson and they'll have plenty of time to right the ship.

[Bjauck]

It's kinda sad thou. There was a post on a FB group yesterday with one person asking what to do now that their kiwisaver is down 40% because of this high risk ark bs. Clearly didnt know what he was investing in, likely followed some dumb post on FB back when people were posting about mega returns during arks glory days. Others post screenshots of their kiwisavers down 40% as well, in some sick form of solidarity. Then all the fan boys come out and say hold, buy more, just a dip, long term view etc. No actual fundamentals stated, just throwaway lines. One person said $80k down in actual dollars, his profile pic suggested he was late 30's. sad! Kiwisaver is supposed to plod along and compound at 8% every year for decades. Double digit returns some years for a bonus.

If I was to, I would only put a small amount of my own managed portfolio (2%) into an ark fund. But would never ever put my nest egg kiwisaver fund into it, let alone 100% of it!! Sure we don’t know yet, if the current sell-off has reached its nadir. Those whose balances are down by 40%, by how much were they up the previous couple of years?

After the 2020 share sell-off there was a spike in KiwiSaver transfers from high risk to conservative funds. Those switchers effectively locked in their losses prior to the share price recoveries. However hindsight is 20:20 vision.

I am not sure if KiwiSaver is “supposed” to have returns as you suggest. Nothing is guaranteed, and schemes state that annual returns can go down as well as up. I guess over the long run returns average out but individual years can have returns that vary considerably especially for the funds that involve a higher risk. Most schemes have different funds available according to risk tolerance. If you had KiwiSaver from its beginning, you would be aware that annual returns can be negative, especially if you had units in a fund that was not conservative. Granted you would probably need to be mid 30’s or older to have personal experience of that.

[Rawz]

I am not sure if KiwiSaver is “supposed” to have returns as you suggest. Nothing is guaranteed, and schemes state that annual returns can go down as well as up. Most schemes have different funds available according to risk tolerance. If you had KiwiSaver from its beginning, you would be aware that annual returns can be negative, especially if you had units in a fund that was not conservative. Granted you would probably need to be mid 30’s or older to have personal experience of that.

Yeah was meaning long term avg return p.a.

[clearasmud]

I am getting very excited looking forward to "PYOTBD" Percy's year of the big dividends.
Kicks off with SEK's 13cps fully imputed on the 23rd of Feb.Bought more SEK on Thursday.
I expect increased dividends from HGH and SFF [Silver Fern Farms] .
Steady dividends from GNE and SPK.
Perhaps modest divies from DGC and STU.
And a few good divies from a number of Aussie small caps I hold.ACF,ADA,JYC,PTB,SEQ,SHM,and XRf.
Yea Percy, dividend hound is the way to be if you're retired.

[dabsman]

It's kinda sad thou. There was a post on a FB group yesterday with one person asking what to do now that their kiwisaver is down 40% because of this high risk ark bs. Clearly didnt know what he was investing in, likely followed some dumb post on FB back when people were posting about mega returns during arks glory days. Others post screenshots of their kiwisavers down 40% as well, in some sick form of solidarity. Then all the fan boys come out and say hold, buy more, just a dip, long term view etc. No actual fundamentals stated, just throwaway lines. One person said $80k down in actual dollars, his profile pic suggested he was late 30's. sad! Kiwisaver is supposed to plod along and compound at 8% every year for decades. Double digit returns some years for a bonus.

If I was to, I would only put a small amount of my own managed portfolio (2%) into an ark fund. But would never ever put my nest egg kiwisaver fund into it, let alone 100% of it!!

I've got 8% of my ETF holdings in ARKK - was about 10% lol. My ETF holdings is only about 10% of total holdings currently but I'm slowly moving more across to ETF for diversity. Interesting times

[nztx]

Omicron: NZ moves to red light tonight

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-nz-moves-to-red-light-tonight-pm-jacinda-ardern-confirms-nine-cases-with-variant/FPYXEZCL3IS2R3I5RPGAI4IFOA/


Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has confirmed New Zealand will move to the red traffic light setting at midnight tonight.

Nine Covid cases in Motueka are confirmed to have the Omicron variant, prompting the decision, Ardern said.

They attended a wedding in Auckland on January 13 along with a funeral, an amusement park and the Sky Tower in the following days. These events had well over 100 people.

Omicron is now circulating in Auckland and possibly the Nelson area, if not further, Ardern said.


could be an interesting week - as it spreads in both islands now

[bull....]

should be another wild week , buckle up

[Bobdn]

Another "interesting" week for sure.

Loved this video. Kevin has sold his stocks and crypto - a $20,000,000 portfolio. Very interesting to hear his reasons.

I'm doing absolutely nothing (which he thinks is a perfectly fine option for a non trader like me). I'm doing the 4 per cent rule as a retiree. I can't be darting in and out of markets at the first sign of trouble. However, if markets "shat themselves" and I mean really made a mess where you actually end up having to throw the pants out rather than putting them in the washing machine, then I would spend frugally for the next year or so until the ship was righted somewhat. I'm a 4 per cent rule convert but happy to be flexible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOSE_UMKS5s

[bottomfeeder]

Hope this is as black as it gets.

[clearasmud]

Hope this is as black as it gets.
If it's a correction as seems likely then the ASX has 10% to go down, similar to early 2016 and late 2018.

[nztx]

If it's a correction as seems likely then the ASX has 10% to go down, similar to early 2016 and late 2018.


I dont know about that - Oz have already had their Omocron effects priced in starting months back .. onshore here
- NZX may well see further effects being effectively priced in, in places IMO

A lot has changed since 2016 & 2018 - Oz has Minerals / Resources sought after globally and an
active sector extending their interests into resources globally.

Where is our Minerals & Mining Sector ? (Best ask the snails)

Where is our Energy Sector now ? (not just the Wind Water & Solar either)

Where is our Manufacturing Industry now ?

Just the stuff that goes in Coffee & Cheese left now & Export Meat off to China jobs left ? or not ? :)

Shame about that..


What is happening now is a Localised NZ event on top of the past week's global economic dip
but with Omocron thrown in + lack of Lifejackets etc - how deep will it go in the next 1-2 months ?

Throw in estimates 10's of thousands of new infections, all the disruption (the news warns of all these) and
where or how much lower could things go ?

Possibly some good opportunities may appear, depending on how the Omocron Red Lights continue to go down, for those who dare.

At worst - no Govt support likely to date - how deep could the fall be - halfway to or the full March 2020 repeated ?

Already for the bruised & battered businesses in some areas - this may be the final blow
without a Govt life jacket anywhere to be seen.

Grant's 4 Bills left in C19 kitty isn't going to go far - so on that basis if unchanged,
suggests numerous casualties will be left up the creek without a paddle by the current
"KIND" administration, now apparently abandoning responsibility for things..

Where did I read that the smart money has already gone off to European markets ? ;)

Anyone blame them ?

but just MTCW :)

[bull....]

just woke up wall st :scared: big fall
just as well got the shorts on. is gratham right ?

[Dlownz]

just woke up wall st :scared: big fall
just as well got the shorts on. is gratham right ?
Belt in its going to be a fun ride today 😂

[bull....]

Belt in its going to be a fun ride today 

yep asx showing nearly a 4% fall at the moment

[Old mate]

Jeepers big fall alright. We going to follow again? Hold on:mellow:

[winner69]

JP Morgan updated their 2022 year-end price target on the S&P 500 to 4,440, which would represent a decline of 6.0% from the current price or about -5% total return.

Lucky that JP Morgan are pretty useless forecasters


If it did end up the year at 4440 we might be happy

[winner69]

They say it’s all because of inflation / interest rates and high valuations

I love this chart …..not just because of its beauty but the story it tells ……inflation over 4% watch out for valuations.

For geeks it’s the Y-curve …low PEs if we see deflation is interesting.

[Waltzing]

Sell off fading.

[bull....]

looks like it for today

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Huge volume clearing out stops and leveraged liquidations. With daily RSI very oversold we are finally getting the bounce. I expect many holders and shorters will be selling on any decent bounce, so the probabilities of new highs are very slim in my opinion.

Volatility in both directions ahead.

[Entrep]

Should be the low for the week

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Should be the low for the week

I'd say that's most probable.

A lot of people will be hurting from this months action. Make sure you all keep perspective as there has been amazing gains in the 2 years. If it's impacting your mental health then it's a good time to reassess your risk tolerance and position sizing. Don't let it get to the point of overwhelming you. Feel free to reach out.

[Waltzing]

Fizzer... not even a decent sell off... needs a full on crisis.. gosh forget we just had one... sunny days are here again...

oh yes almost forgot whole sectors like tourism have been totally trashed.

war zone ...

[Beagle]

Fizzer... not even a decent sell off... needs a full on crisis.. gosh forget we just had one... sunny days are here again...

oh yes almost forgot whole sectors like tourism have been totally trashed.

war zone ...

Probably will literally be the case in Ukraine shortly which won't help.

Very early days to be saying sunny days are here again. This old dog is far more cautious than that.

[Waltzing]

we have software in one of our dynamic DLL's from the region. Luckily we got it 7 years ago , the source code.

should be a lovely summer next year... Rip Curl should be flying off the shelves...

[Bobdn]

If it did end up the year at 4440 we might be happy

Some more info:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/24/growth-slowdown-to-spark-10percent-stock-plunge-morgan-stanley-warns.html

[Panda-NZ-]

I wonder what the late stage buying was from last night.

Not much of a bargain considering all that's going on.

[FTG]

Coincidentally, I recently opined here that 4600 on the S & P 500 is a significant level, and ~ 4750 was the next level to watch on the bull trend. Well, this week it hit an ATH of 4745, but then reversed to 4595 (with the biggest 1 day fall this year) to sit back right on the significant level. Also leaving a Bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. It seems that the market is treating those levels with some respect.



15 Dec 2021....and as at today this reasonably tight trading range (4600 - 4750) is STILL in play. The 4600 level especially is still being respected by the market, with the market bouncing off it today, yet again - making an intraday low.

FED talk tomorrow could be direction setting??

...Originally posted in Mid-Dec & prior. My word, how things have progressed!

As each candle on the daily & weekly chart prints, to me it more & more looks like a good old bear market is now (finally!) forming. It's been so many years now, can you remember those?! If so, I would suggest it's WELL overdue. Let's face it, the March 2020 "crash" wasn't a real bear market. However, it was a very sharp & swift correction. As we know, it was the fastest decent drop from an ATH in history (over 35% fall in less than 30 trading days from the ATH), but which then went on to be totally retraced & go on to further new ATH's (all within just 6 months!).

With just 4 trading days left in the month the S & P is now clearly showing a bearish engulfing candle on the Monthly chart. Yet another signal that if confirmed we should take heed of. Additionally, when looking at the weekly & daily charts one can clearly see the charts are showing more of a 'rounded top'. This is the shape one would normally expect for indices (as opposed to individual stocks, commodities etc which can produce more sharply shaped formations ) to print when evolving into a decent Bear Market. '29, '73, '87, '09 ALL showed rounded tops. During these rounded tops the "smart money" starts to exit, whilst the "not so smart" keep buying the dip.

The psychological condition of the market certainly appears to be changing in 2022.

So, where to from here?

- As the market psychology changes from a long-term bullish mindset to a bearish mindset it is likely volatility will remain more elevated for a period. We are certainly seeing some of that whipsawing action intraday already.
- The 200 DMA has been pierced to the downside (first time in 2 years),
- and the 4600 Fibonacci and S/R line mentioned above has been blown away like a line in the sand on a windy West Coast beach.

If I'm on the money and this is the beginning of a BEAR Market, then the eventual targets to the downside will be dependent on which time-cycles are in play. IMHO we are more likely to see a decent Bear market play out over months/years, rather than just days/weeks.

FWIW, Bear markets aren't all bad. They are actually needed to clean things up a bit and set up conditions for sustainable Bull market to prevail later. They are part of a healthy & well functioning market. Remember though , in this case the S & P hasn't been in a Bear Market for a record 13 years. Just think, there will be a few young retail investors who have never truly experienced a Bear Market!



Number wise, even when just looking at the leg up from 23/3/20 and using Fib and historical S/R, at the absolute minimum initially the 3200-3500 zone looks like a big magnet to me. NB. It just happens the Feb 2020 swing high is smack in the middle of that range too.

First though, we now need to see a 2DC below 4200 to strengthen the Bear's case. Later this week, or early next month?

[value_investor]

I've woken up from my slumber and starting to buy, I'm reading a lot of things online capturing my interest and the backdrop I get to this is that a lot of new investors have come in the last 2-3 years. They've experienced some outsized gains, and this uptrend we have seen without a correction is not sustainable. However, its come now and its healthy for the market in the long run to shake out some of the investors and bring itself back to fair valuations. Remember the saying "everyone is a genius during a bull market".

The funny thing I'm seeing is if you zoom out on the US markets about 6 months you are still up on stocks. Microsoft is down 11% YTD however its still up 2.5% if you go back on 6 months. Apple is down 11% YTD as well, if you go back on 6 months its up 8.5%. You could do a similar exercise if you zoom out on the large caps on the NZX.

I expect we will continue shaking out some of these investors, a lot of stocks that have low conviction have been propped up by cheap money and/or incredibly lofty guidance or outlooks. We have seen this trend of companies keeping short term debt at 2-5 year lengths financed at very low rates and then refinanced again. Those days might be coming to an end, and while interest rate rises are coming in now, we are still very low historically so the run up could continue (unless we see political factors come to play).

If your time horizon is less than 2 years then I would be concerned, but if its 10 years + then this is a great opportunity. Remember if you had strong conviction on a stock at $5 then your conviction should be even stronger at $4.50 not weaker, and if it is weaker at $4.50 then you probably didn't believe in the stock from the beginning.

[bull....]

no follow thru after a historic intra day rally is not normally a good sign

anyway heres a good story

Boomerang Rally Hints at Deeper Market Troubles

History suggests that such dramatic reversals happen only when something is amiss

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-25/stock-market-s-boomerang-rally-hints-at-deeper-troubles?srnd=premium-asia

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Just setting some hourly and 4hr (futures) higher lows before getting any rally follow through in my opinion.

[Rawz]

US rebound.

Quick buy buy buy. Cash is trash, it’s losing money as we speak.

Max debt
Max investment

[alokdhir]

Normally markets make the low before the start of the up rate cycle of FED ...many call it " FED. Tantrum " ...so as per that saying ....low should be in place or close by ...after this will be slow grind up while the rates rise .

NZX most likely low for the year is in place 12100 should hold and we end year close to 14000 ....:D

[bull....]

fed announcement just out only reinforces my view they are way behind the curve. setting up for dangerous times ahead. short term bounces are just that

[winner69]

Hmmm



Bull says - Fed are way behind the curve. setting up for dangerous times ahead. short term bounces are just that

And

alokdhir says - FED. Tantrum " low should be in place or close by ...after this will be slow grind up while the rates rise - NZX most likely low for the year is in place 12100 should hold and we end year close to 14000 ....

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Normally markets make the low before the start of the up rate cycle of FED ...many call it " FED. Tantrum " ...so as per that saying ....low should be in place or close by ...after this will be slow grind up while the rates rise .

NZX most likely low for the year is in place 12100 should hold and we end year close to 14000 ....:D

I almost can't find a bull case for equities or risk assets at all. Let me put two scenarios to you...

1. Economy continues to perform very strongly, so inflation is strong. Rates go up, hence strong downward pressure on asset prices

2. Economy falters, recession, inflation takes a further 12 months to abate so rates can't be dropped too quickly. Rates put pressure on asset prices, BUT there's something more important... PE ratios are at historical extremes and this is at a time of an economic goldilocks period (for many). If there is economic contraction, even if the current historically extreme high average PE ratio is maintained, share prices will drop significantly due to decreased earnings. PE contraction would probably happen too.

So what's the bull case? Keen to hear other views.

[bull....]

better buy everything you need now from the shops cause prices be heaps higher soon

[alokdhir]

Hmmm



Bull says - Fed are way behind the curve. setting up for dangerous times ahead. short term bounces are just that

And

alokdhir says - FED. Tantrum " low should be in place or close by ...after this will be slow grind up while the rates rise - NZX most likely low for the year is in place 12100 should hold and we end year close to 14000 ....

Only time will tell which option worked out better . Only difference maybe I am thinking from NZX perspective which had a rare negative year 2021 while Bull and others are more thinking from US markets side .

NZX even Guru Lister has said can give small positive for the year 2022 after a negative 2021 . We are at present down 6.5% YTD ...so for small positive we need go up from here 10-15 % ...

NZD downfall may help NZX stocks look attractive to foreign investors ...its surely going towards 60 cents as per Walting ...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The US market has gone from looking for the daily bounce off oversold levels, to being on daily bear flag watch...

[winner69]

OMG S&P500 down nearly 3% in last hour

Action plus

Hopefully on ow volumes

[bull....]

red markets cause it mean fed probably have to surprise at some stage like i mentioned the other day. surprise be becuase there so far behind the curve they have to jack rates heaps higher

[cyclist]

The US market has gone from looking for the daily bounce off oversold levels, to being on daily bear flag watch...

a.k.a. the sentiment has changed from "buy the dips" into "sell the bounce"? Certainly looks that way.

[Rawz]

Rates cant go too high. Will bankrupt the US govt.
Real rates will be negative for many years.
So lose money sitting in cash. Lose money sitting in stocks? Unless you pick growing low p/e stocks. Beagles GARP stocks.

[bull....]

Rates cant go too high. Will bankrupt the US govt.
Real rates will be negative for many years.
So lose money sitting in cash. Lose money sitting in stocks? Unless you pick growing low p/e stocks. Beagles GARP stocks.

your forgetting in a bear market all stocks go down

[FTG]

OMG S&P500 down nearly 3% in last hour

Action plus

Hopefully on ow volumes

LARGE volumes unfortunately Winner.

re the Fed discussion, today seems to be a classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" situation.

However, don't be surprised to see even more volatility over the next 40 mins & after hours.

[alokdhir]

Watch NZD sinking ...thats cash rolling in for MFTs and FPHs ....:t_up:

FED surprises US market and NZD is dumped to 60 Cents ...making our exporters super attractive

[Rawz]

your forgetting in a bear market all stocks go down

Yeh well i cant time the market and luckily I have fresh capital to invest each month when i get my paycheck.

DCA will have to be my friend during these times and ill see you all in a few months or years when this blows over holding many more shares in my favorite companies.

[alokdhir]

Yeh well i cant time the market and luckily I have fresh capital to invest each money when i get my paycheck.

DCA will have to be my friend during these times and ill see you all in a few months or years when this blows over holding many more shares in my favorite companies.

Fully agree with that ...thats the right way to invest ...at all times regularly ...U will surely do well .:t_up:

[Biscuit]

.....PE ratios are at historical extremes ......

What is your data for that? Not saying you are wrong, just struggling to find good data to evaluate that. I look at MSCI NZ index and it screams that NZ has exceptionally high PE ratios. But that is based on just 6 companies and dominated by high PE companies like FPH, AIA that are not really reflective of most of the companies listed in NZ - one is priced for its exceptional growth and the other is priced for its assets. What data is available to make a more meaningful comparison of valuations? Same with NZX50, its become dominated by growth companies, so historical comparisons are difficult.

Having said that, I do agree that valuations seem relatively high and that with the emergence of inflation and likely higher interest rates, valuations will likely come down, at least in the short/medium term.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

What is your data for that? Not saying you are wrong, just struggling to find good data to evaluate that. I look at MSCI NZ index and it screams that NZ has exceptionally high PE ratios. But that is based on just 6 companies and dominated by high PE companies like FPH, AIA that are not really reflective of most of the companies listed in NZ - one is priced for its exceptional growth and the other is priced for its assets. What data is available to make a more meaningful comparison of valuations? Same with NZX50, its become dominated by growth companies, so historical comparisons are difficult.

Having said that, I do agree that valuations seem relatively high and that with the emergence of inflation and likely higher interest rates, valuations will likely come down, at least in the short/medium term.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

I will also reiterate the 2nd order consequence of the potential of decreasing earnings.

[alokdhir]

Looks like NZX website under attack again ...its not updating for me ...

Ok now ...so all good

[BlackPeter]

your forgetting in a bear market all stocks go down

There are always the BEAR ETF's ... and shorting :p ;

Not sure, though whether it is already this time of the cycle ...

[alokdhir]

NZ inflation is below expectations ..at 5.9 % its below expected 6+ % ...so some help for our market to stop going down .

[percy]

NEVER HEARD OF THIS THEORY ON ECONOMICS BEFORE. HAVE YOU??





Sanjay Thakrar, CEO at Euro Exim Bank Ltd, got economists thinking when he said:

“A cyclist is a disaster for a country's economy.

He does not buy a car and does not take a car loan.

Does not buy car insurance.

Does not buy fuel.

Does not send his car for servicing and repairs.

Does not use paid parking.

Does not become obese.

Yes ... and well, damn it! ... healthy people are not needed for an economy.

They do not buy drugs.

They do not go to hospitals and doctors.

They add nothing to a country's GDP.

On the contrary, every new McDonald’s outlet creates at least 30 jobs:

10 cardiologists,

10 dentists,

10 weight-loss experts, apart from people working in McDonald’s outlets.

So, choose wisely: A bicycle or a Mcdonald's?

Walkers are even worse. Those people do not even buy a bicycle!

[bull....]

NZ inflation is below expectations ..at 5.9 % its below expected 6+ % ...so some help for our market to stop going down .

no you need to buy everything you can , if you can before prices double by the end of the year

[alokdhir]

no you need to buy everything you can , if you can before prices double by the end of the year

Stocks also ...maybe they will also double ...lol

[Swala]

Classic - love it!


NEVER HEARD OF THIS THEORY ON ECONOMICS BEFORE. HAVE YOU??





Sanjay Thakrar, CEO at Euro Exim Bank Ltd, got economists thinking when he said:

“A cyclist is a disaster for a country's economy.

He does not buy a car and does not take a car loan.

Does not buy car insurance.

Does not buy fuel.

Does not send his car for servicing and repairs.

Does not use paid parking.

Does not become obese.

Yes ... and well, damn it! ... healthy people are not needed for an economy.

They do not buy drugs.

They do not go to hospitals and doctors.

They add nothing to a country's GDP.

On the contrary, every new McDonald’s outlet creates at least 30 jobs:

10 cardiologists,

10 dentists,

10 weight-loss experts, apart from people working in McDonald’s outlets.

So, choose wisely: A bicycle or a Mcdonald's?

Walkers are even worse. Those people do not even buy a bicycle!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

NZ inflation is below expectations ..at 5.9 % its below expected 6+ % ...so some help for our market to stop going down .

2 Year treasuries broken out of range to the upside, so nope.

[Panda-NZ-]

NZ 10 year bond rate same as the US.

Europe has extremely cheap debt so they should spend more.

[Panda-NZ-]

Germany and their strange agenda...

No nuclear energy.
No arming ukraine.
No investing in their own future.

Rather bleak.

[bull....]

looks like the asx will go negative by end of day ,
nzx already negative again. expecting a hole in the floor once that 12100 support goes in the not to distant future

[alokdhir]

looks like the asx will go negative by end of day ,
nzx already negative again. expecting a hole in the floor once that 12100 support goes in the not to distant future

If FPH bottoms out at 29 then it single handedly can save 12100 levels ...lets hope so

[bull....]

If FPH bottoms out at 29 then it single handedly can save 12100 levels ...lets hope so

no chance , us futures are now tanking , ominous for tonight at this early stage.

speaking of the asx it broke its sideways top a few days ago
similar the nzx trading sideways since nov so a break or should i say collapse thru 12100 is just the same patterns happening all over the place

[Panda-NZ-]

ASX down a further 2%...

[Bjauck]

NEVER HEARD OF THIS THEORY ON ECONOMICS BEFORE. HAVE YOU??





Sanjay Thakrar, CEO at Euro Exim Bank Ltd, got economists thinking when he said:

“A cyclist is a disaster for a country's economy.

He does not buy a car and does not take a car loan.

Does not buy car insurance.

Does not buy fuel.

Does not send his car for servicing and repairs.

Does not use paid parking.

Does not become obese.

Yes ... and well, damn it! ... healthy people are not needed for an economy.

They do not buy drugs.

They do not go to hospitals and doctors.

They add nothing to a country's GDP.

On the contrary, every new McDonald’s outlet creates at least 30 jobs:

10 cardiologists,

10 dentists,

10 weight-loss experts, apart from people working in McDonald’s outlets.

So, choose wisely: A bicycle or a Mcdonald's?

Walkers are even worse. Those people do not even buy a bicycle!
injuries double for cyclists aged over 65!
https://www.acc.co.nz/newsroom/stories/cycling-related-injuries-double-among-our-older-population/

[Panda-NZ-]

Futures down again, asx -2.5%.

[percy]

injuries double for cyclists aged over 65!
https://www.acc.co.nz/newsroom/stories/cycling-related-injuries-double-among-our-older-population/

Another theory debunked,..lol

[Panda-NZ-]

More cycleways should be built seperated from the road. canterbury does it well with the rail trail etc.

These paths would have a tiny cost and will last for decades.

[nztx]

May need a new thread soon to cover all the "RED" days soon ;)

[bottomfeeder]

Dont know why the markets are dropping. Term Deposits are still 3 percent for five years. If inflation remains the same by the end of a 100 k Deposit you would have lost in real value terms $15,000. Where is the sense in that.

[nztx]

Dont know why the markets are dropping. Term Deposits are still 3 percent for five years. If inflation remains the same by the end of a 100 k Deposit you would have lost in real value terms $15,000. Where is the sense in that.


It's way worse than that - on this Govt's hidden or invisible inflation - not reported anywhere.

(That is if movements in value of real assets - property, shares etc running at highs is ignored)

How much did Govt artificially increase money supply ? was it 100 Bils ?

What was it before that ?

If available real goods haven't increased, it's not difficult to work out the "Real Invisible Inflation"
out of this Govt's fiscal policies

On a term deposit of $100 K in before stimulus - if money supply doubled due to stimulous
& available real goods remained static - Loss of Value / Spending Power would be 50% in real terms

This ignores further inflationary effects which come on top - which you refer to

Further Govt fiscal steps may or may not further impact real value in future of that $100K deposit
as they attempt (or more likely are destined to bungle at) reigning in inflation

Govt (via IRD) also strip RWT Tax out of any Interest income at source as well, along the way

[Panda-NZ-]

Dont know why the markets are dropping. Term Deposits are still 3 percent for five years. If inflation remains the same by the end of a 100 k Deposit you would have lost in real value terms $15,000. Where is the sense in that.

There's a good opportunity to increase your leverage or take out loans if it drops.

[nztx]

There's a good opportunity to increase your leverage or take out loans if it drops.


Someone best tell Comrade Robertson that's safe to borrow another $200 Bils for a new Covid Fund
and hope like **LL the s**t don't hit the fan ;)

Tonga may appreciate a bit of extra trade for something to replace the local Kiwi Fiat transferables ;)

The Warehouse may do a ripper of a trade in new wheelbarrows to facilitate all the new transferables :)

[Panda-NZ-]

Why is russell 2000 (small cap) closely following the nasdaq if inflation and interest rates are the main issue?

[Monarch]

The fed is planning to unload its asset book, might make it harder to small caps to get favourable debt terms? Could also be that russel 2000 is following SP500 but with higher volatility, making it appear similar to nasdaq 100?

[Baa_Baa]

It's way worse than that - ...

If available real goods haven't increased, it's not difficult to work out the "Real Invisible Inflation"
out of this Govt's fiscal policies

Available goods have and are increasing (in price), significantly in many cases obscenely increasing, and to further complicate the situation 'availability' of good (imports particularly) are already seriously compromised by supply / shipping logistics, very seriously for some industries.

The hurt shows up in the smaller developers, builders, applicators, retailers, manufacturers etc (the back bone of NZ business) ... who suddenly get prioritised down off the list of supply, in favour of the top ten or twenty customers of the supplier. They just don't get their product supplied anymore, or won't for months.

The **** is hitting the fan in reality land. Straight out of stop-work lockdowns and into an endemic virus affecting worker supply on top of massive logistical product supply delays and shortages. It's really bad, unfortunately.

The Government is out of touch, they have no clue or if they do they have no answers and just seem to have lost the plot about economic health vs public health. The conjoiner is that public health includes mental health and well being, though while 'saved' from an epidemic it is crushed by having ones livelihood taken.

The Government just doesn't seems to get it, I'm not sure why, it seems so obvious.

[Greekwatchdog]

Nick Mowbray on the Govt. Paywalled sorry. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nick-mowbray-nz-deserves-better-than-this-govts-mediocrity/HQQUABDOLARP7HTDA4UCDGVPZI/

[Beagle]

Talking with a few people this week in business who seem incredulous that we're back into a quasi lockdown of sorts and there's no resurgence grants or wage subsidies. The Government can't keep propping up business forever. It is what it is. This is the year we are going to find out who is swimming naked.. Tsunami of small business closures on the horizon ?

[Panda-NZ-]

Many people here didn't want a short sharp lockdown.

So it follows that there will be restrictions like in the UK and Australia instead.

[Greekwatchdog]

Country can't afford another lockdown. Wheres the money coming from to pay for it? Rising Interest Rates with a slowing economy going to create all sorts of issues. RBNZ and govt have dug there graces and are filling it up themselves.

Looking forward to next months reporting season, will be very interesting.

[Baa_Baa]

Talking with a few people this week in business who seem incredulous that we're back into a quasi lockdown of sorts and there's no resurgence grants or wage subsidies. The Government can't keep propping up business forever. It is what it is. This is the year we are going to find out who is swimming naked.. Tsunami of small business closures on the horizon ?

The weird thing is that the 'quasi lockdowns' now are self inflicted, by businesses and agencies who are spooked and say 'work remotely if you can' (paraphrased), but if you can wing it on site do it, hopefully.

What is happening right now is that the Government is abandoning their responsibility for the economy and leaving it to industry who are all but crippled from two years of government health policy trumping economic policy.

It's bad already and getting worse quickly.

[Bobdn]

Brent is at 14 year highs. The NZD is at 52 week lows. That can't be good.

[Panda-NZ-]

Brent is at 14 year highs. The NZD is at 52 week lows. That can't be good.

You brought up the oil crisis before the edit. I don't think it's similar.

Property was x3 the average wage, rather than 10.
Most people are employed today.
Most people and govts are also in heavy debt vs the self sufficient "zero debt" economy of the 1970's.

[Bobdn]

@panda No, it might not be or it's too early to tell.

[Panda-NZ-]

So much money going to loans its surprising there's money left for discretionary stuff.

I think people are bringing forward their planned spending since they realise that life comes with an expiration date.

[clearasmud]

Most of the historical drawdowns of the SP500 bottom around -15%.

We are getting pretty close to that limit.....

....My portfolio certainly hope it does ... even my O&G plays that are seeing record high AUD Spot prices and being sold ...down ,,,
Due to the impact of lockdowns, Chinese property market, potential war in Ukraine this correction may be larger, say 20% like in 2016.
Also the market has had a great run so there is more room to correct more.

[Panda-NZ-]

The fed is planning to unload its asset book, might make it harder to small caps to get favourable debt terms? Could also be that russel 2000 is following SP500 but with higher volatility, making it appear similar to nasdaq 100?

Russell 2000 from 2004 to 07 = a 60% gain.

Maybe its stocked full of high PE stocks this time.

[nztx]

Brent is at 14 year highs. The NZD is at 52 week lows. That can't be good.


You bet .. and no value added done onshore here now

Infact nothing new in Petro exploration either


Guess the full effects of market forces now set to flow in from offshore

then to be hit with full range of Govt Add-ons, duties, taxes etc

Bound to be contributing factor into spiraling inflation and cost increases for most goods & services..

[Panda-NZ-]

You bet .. and no value added done onshore here now

Infact nothing new in Petro exploration either

There was some recent investment into Kiwirail instead of all the trucks.

People were buying a new model of truck every 5 years along with all the petrol (plus spare parts). all from offshore.

[Habits]

Heard on zb business...US growth in 4th qtr 6.9 annualized and capping off the best year since 1980s. Driven by restocking and consumer demand up 7.9 percent. Largest gain since 1946 the end of ww2. Inflation is to be expected under those metrics I say

[winner69]

Hussman a permabear but views based on history - just as well these times are different eh

latest note

Valuations will not tell you where the top is or where the bottom will be. They do offer a good indication of the long-term returns you can expect from that starting point.

Chart says nominal returns from the S&P500 over next 12 years likely to be -5% pa

If you expect a miserly 5% pa return over 12 years then S&P500 should be about 2000 today

Just as well it's all a load of bollocks eh

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Dollar has dropped below 66c. Adrian will be forced into a 0.5% raise next review in my opinion.

[mcdongle]

Dollar has dropped below 66c. Adrian will be forced into a 0.5% raise next review in my opinion.

Or they will set up a committee to look at it

[winner69]

Dollar has dropped below 66c. Adrian will be forced into a 0.5% raise next review in my opinion.

Problem is that Orr really doesn't know what to do and has got rid of the people who might have helped him understand....real understanding of monetary policy missing they reckon ......and many commentators are totally bemused with the appointment of Karen Silk as a new Deputy Governor.

So expect the unexpected ...might see an OCR cut

[bullfrog]

If only NZ had some great Oil and Gas exploration / production ...would certainly be profitable and bringing in huge Taxes & employment ...and securing our future energy needs ...those that believe in O&G free NZ will be the same people happy to Buy up products made from or because of O&G

Old article
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2104/S00072/labours-policy-is-leading-to-energy-emergency.htm

Not O&G, but fossil fuel energy related...

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/coal-gas-power-shrinking-in-australia-as-renewable-energy-shines-20220127-p59rob.html

EnergyAustralia last year announced it would shut Victoria’s Yallourn coal-fired power plant in 2028, four years earlier than planned. AGL, the nation’s biggest power supplier, declared the “winds of change” were sweeping the sector much faster than anticipated, prompting the company to embark on a historic demerger of its coal and gas generators from its wider retailing business after sinking to a $2.06 billion full-year loss (https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p58hzv) in the 12 months to June 30.

[mcdongle]

The world seems to be run by people who cannot see the consequences of their actions..

[Panda-NZ-]

Dollar has dropped below 66c. Adrian will be forced into a 0.5% raise next review in my opinion.

Why take action when only words move markets.

In theory he could say "Now is the time for a hard pullback or even austerity".

Then basically do nothing.

[alokdhir]

Big swings in moods of people is making everything swing ...after lockdowns ...people went crazy spending money ...now its going other way round ...IMHO this new pessimism is going to make the big fears of INFLATION go away sooner then many thinking . Rates will not rise so much ...they dont need to ...people dont have money and security of mind to keep spending .

Already retail is getting hammered as masses have closed their wallets ...Euphoria is over ...now the pendulum will swing other side

Dont write off markets and productive assets ...its not doom and gloom ahead ...Surprise surprise will happen when most realise inflation will be easy to tame when people dont have money and confidence to chase prices up

Consumerism which led to inflation will vanish with this bust of confidence and vanishing money from wallets

[Biscuit]

Big swings in moods of people is making everything swing ...after lockdowns ...people went crazy spending money ...now its going other way round ...IMHO this new pessimism is going to make the big fears of INFLATION go away sooner then many thinking . Rates will not rise so much ...they dont need to ...people dont have money and security of mind to keep spending .

Already retail is getting hammered as masses have closed their wallets ...Euphoria is over ...now the pendulum will swing other side

Dont write off markets and productive assets ...its not doom and gloom ahead ...Surprise surprise will happen when most realise inflation will be easy to tame when people dont have money and confidence to chase prices up

Consumerism which led to inflation will vanish with this bust of confidence and vanishing money from wallets

Unfortunately, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as people sell shares and stop spending we go into recession leading to lower company profit. That is basically the business cycle and it is inevitable.

[Biscuit]

Interesting when you look across the whole Energy landscape>>

What is interesting about that graph is that it's not exponential. Despite population growth and the global spread of energy-consuming technology and life-style, we've been able to massively increase energy efficiency. That graph is a testament to human ingenuity and that we can easily maintain current lifestyles with far lower energy consumption.

[Bobdn]

Just catching up on Closing Bell...

*Spoiler Alert*

The indexes ripped massively higher in the last 15 minutes of the session. Just insane.

Apart from my $87 contribution to my kiwisaver account per month, I'm not doing anything and am just a passive observer with my 80/20 portfolio (probably less than 80 per cent now ;) It's been the worst few weeks for me, comparable to January 2016 when I owned BHP directly and other Australian resource stocks. Something about China back then that I can't honestly remember.

[Panda-NZ-]

Japan and south korea should simplify their currencies:

$1000 NZD :

75.3k Yen
791k Won

[Jerry]

Good reality check, Bullfrog.

Not O&G, but fossil fuel energy related...

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/coal-gas-power-shrinking-in-australia-as-renewable-energy-shines-20220127-p59rob.html

EnergyAustralia last year announced it would shut Victoria’s Yallourn coal-fired power plant in 2028, four years earlier than planned. AGL, the nation’s biggest power supplier, declared the “winds of change” were sweeping the sector much faster than anticipated, prompting the company to embark on a historic demerger of its coal and gas generators from its wider retailing business after sinking to a $2.06 billion full-year loss (https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p58hzv) in the 12 months to June 30.

[nztx]

There was some recent investment into Kiwirail instead of all the trucks.

People were buying a new model of truck every 5 years along with all the petrol (plus spare parts). all from offshore.

All Electric, Solar, Wave movement or Wind powered ?

or None of the above ?

obviously Atomic or pedal powered are out ;)

or Too Hard ? ;)

[see weed]

Bummer. Just woke up to the fact that the share market is open today.:(

[aquaman]

Bummer. Just woke up to the fact that the share market is open today.:(

Better to go back to sleep... for at least 6 months or so and not look at it at all.

[Bobdn]

Tom says that a lot of cash has been raised over the last few months "...retail cash...if you look at retail money market cash...retail investors assumed a bear market is starting, they've raised so much cash in the last couple of months that we're essentially resetting a risk on rally...".

I love it when people go mostly to cash, makes me want to stay in the market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys5NlAoI2HA

[winner69]

Tom says that a lot of cash has been raised over the last few months "...retail cash...if you look at retail money market cash...retail investors assumed a bear market is starting, they've raised so much cash in the last couple of months that we're essentially resetting a risk on rally...".

I love it when people go mostly to cash, makes me want to stay in the market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys5NlAoI2HA

But don't those who have been buying lately have less cash ..... seems the pile of cash is about the same as it was

[Bobdn]

But don't those who have been buying lately have less cash ..... seems the pile of cash is about the same as it was

I don't know what the figures are. According to Tom the cash pile is bigger. I wonder if NZ Sharetraders have more cash on hand now on average than one month ago. I'm guessing yes.

[winner69]

I don't know what the figures are. According to Tom the cash pile is bigger. I wonder if NZ Sharetraders have more cash on hand now on average than one month ago. I'm guessing yes.


But if other Sharetraders have been buying what Sharetraders like Beagle have been selling isn’t the pile of cash about the same as it was.

[Bobdn]

Ok, I'll admit I'm easily confused about such things. I get the idea that for every seller there is a buyer. However, cash piles can keep on growing through any number of means e.g. work! - not everything has to go into the NZX and people can have a higher allocation of cash. I see the NZX is down 12 per cent from its high so people are using less cash to get their shares than a year or so ago. And if there's better explanation then don't hesitate to let me know.

Beagle had a nice explanation for his position in the comp thread. I totally get it. Why take huge risks when one can live comfortably with the nut they have?

[winner69]

Yes Bobdn ….can be confusing and probably not as straight forward as some commentators make it out to be.

And I can’t argue with somebody whose top dog in the picking comp can I

[Bobdn]

Yes Bobdn ….can be confusing and probably not as straight forward as some commentators make it out to be.

And I can’t argue with somebody whose top dog in the picking comp can I

Well, that gets to the nub of things. I learnt a few years back that I have no idea what's going on so I just buy the whole market. My picks are just huge slices of the market, its hard to beat the market.

[kiora]

"THE MARKETS
Bargain hunters drive NZ shares higher
Tweet
New Zealand's sharemarket rallied in earnest on Tuesday as investors concluded that equities had been oversold and rushed to buy at deflated valuations"
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519873/bargain-hunters-drive-nz-shares-higher.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+1+Feb+2 022

[Muse]

Released just now - NZ jobless rate of 3.2% - lowest on record. Good news in itself. but also reinforces the likelihood in rapid & meaningful rises in interest rates.

[nztx]

Released just now - NZ jobless rate of 3.2% - lowest on record. Good news in itself. but also reinforces the likelihood in rapid & meaningful rises in interest rates.


Suppose not not the slightest hint of how many extra bods got buried in Govt Dept Employment Villages,
other excuses under different name tags - as is the usual mode with Labour's reporting style ? ;)

[Habits]

Released just now - NZ jobless rate of 3.2% - lowest on record. Good news in itself. but also reinforces the likelihood in rapid & meaningful rises in interest rates.

I dont think either of those int rate outcomes will happen. Why not... australia are holding rates where they are for another 2 years, and so is most of the western world. High debt levels and high interest rates will cause a slowdown. The rbnz talks big to jawbone the market and does not always follow up

[Muse]

I dont think either of those int rate outcomes will happen. Why not... australia are holding rates where they are for another 2 years, and so is most of the western world. High debt levels and high interest rates will cause a slowdown. The rbnz talks big to jawbone the market and does not always follow up

NZ has 5.9% inflation - Australia’s is just over 3%. There are some basket component differences to how the two counties measure - OZ would higher if the same basket. None the less, reported inflation here is nearly 2x that in AU, so I dont think the RBNZ cares if australia doesnt raise rates. Our OCR is near record lows, our unemployment rate at all time low, inflation at 30 year highs - seems logical the OCR going up soon and fast.

Interest rates already have. Swap rates and mortage costs all up significantly over the last 6mnths.

More to come too.

[Biscuit]

NZ has 5.9% inflation - Australia’s is just over 3%. There are some basket component differences to how the two counties measure - OZ would higher if the same basket. None the less, reported inflation here is nearly 2x that in AU, so I dont think the RBNZ cares if australia doesnt raise rates. Our OCR is near record lows, our unemployment rate at all time low, inflation at 30 year highs - seems logical the OCR going up soon and fast.

Interest rates already have. Swap rates and mortage costs all up significantly over the last 6mnths.

More to come too.

Seems certain rates are going up for the next wee while.

[Mr Slothbear]

I dont think either of those int rate outcomes will happen. Why not... australia are holding rates where they are for another 2 years, and so is most of the western world. High debt levels and high interest rates will cause a slowdown. The rbnz talks big to jawbone the market and does not always follow up


Adrian would be asleep at the wheel and in breach of contract if rates do not move up soon.

Stated inflation rate is under representing

[workingdad]

I'm not convinced increases in the OCR will have the impact on inflation they have had in the past

[Beagle]

50 bps increase coming this month ?

[Peitro]

I'm not convinced increases in the OCR will have the impact on inflation they have had in the past

😂 you serious? An OCR of 8% these days would have way more impact than it did 15 years ago…

[Biscuit]

I'm not convinced increases in the OCR will have the impact on inflation they have had in the past

Problem is, there is global inflation caused by supply chain issues. I also struggle to see how raising interest rates is going to solve that side of the problem.

[Habits]

NZ has 5.9% inflation - Australia’s is just over 3%. There are some basket component differences to how the two counties measure - OZ would higher if the same basket. None the less, reported inflation here is nearly 2x that in AU, so I dont think the RBNZ cares if australia doesnt raise rates. Our OCR is near record lows, our unemployment rate at all time low, inflation at 30 year highs - seems logical the OCR going up soon and fast.

Interest rates already have. Swap rates and mortage costs all up significantly over the last 6mnths.

More to come too.

"Rapid and meaningful" cash rate rises. I do not think AO is a rapid type guy... when delta happened the planned ocr rises were postponed.

[workingdad]

50 bps increase coming this month ?

Sure hope so, but easy for me, mortgage free, those on the fringe will feel the pain.

[Joshuatree]

Nasdaq been flying,up 7% last 3 days and looks like another 2%tonite.

[bull....]

rally from oversold levels ie bear bounce or is it a buy the dip to new highs again
take your pick people and have the tissues ready in case you pick the wrong side

[winner69]

Meta shares down 22% in after hours …that won’t help.

[Panda-NZ-]

Paypal also down 25% .

[nztx]

"Rapid and meaningful" cash rate rises. I do not think AO is a rapid type guy... when delta happened the planned ocr rises were postponed.


doesn't that mean that Robertson gets final pull on the chain in the RB Puppet play ? ;)

[newbieinvestor]

Meta shares down 22% in after hours …that won’t help.

Welcome to the Metaverse Winner69 !!:eek2:

[winner69]

Welcome to the Metaverse Winner69 !!:eek2:

Now worries newbie …..Share price up 40% in the metaverse a few minutes ago :t_up:

[Muse]

Problem is, there is global inflation caused by supply chain issues. I also struggle to see how raising interest rates is going to solve that side of the problem.

Aye - its a multifaceted issue and we have but blunt tools. None the less, I believe supply chain issues form only a part of inflation, with the majority of it created by government stimulus that was issued at a vast multiple of the underlying gap in wages post pandemic to its pre-covid trend. Both here in NZ and more particularly in America. Another issue is as the NZD drops lower it will result in higher tradeable inflation, together with services inflation, labour inflation, energy inflation, supply chain etc.

I listened to this podcast on xmas eve by Larry Summers - who was 100% right in his call 12 months ago on what would happen to inflation. It's about 23 minutes long but it's one of the most insightful glances on why we have inflation. What is telling is Summers is not a right of centre economist - he served as Obama's treasury secretary and prior to that was director of the national economic council - so for a democratic leaning economist to be ringing the alarm bells the loudest on inflation then and now certainly grabbed my attention.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-23/larry-summers-predicts-the-economic-future-and-it-doesn-t-look-good
(note: ignore the video - click the audio only stephanomics podcast).

I would hope our economy will be more responsive to OCR hikes than in the past. Household debt as a % of disposable income is at all time highs so smaller rises in the OCR should have a higher proportionate impact on disposable income less servicing. The last data I have is at june 2021 and no doubt even higher now.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-household-debt

At june 2021 it stood at 169% - probably more like 175% now. It's previous all time high was 158% in june 2009.

[bull....]

i think these stocks like netflix , meta etc etc who have missed earnings and have gotten absolutely slammed in the US ( i mean wow the size of these companies and the fall in $ value is incredible ) is a warnings for nzx and asx earnings coming up.

miss and your stock price will plummet big time

[bull....]

cause the other big news this week is the RBA stopping QE and im sure to raise rates soon due to inflation

Reserve Bank to wrap up $350 billion stimulus program this month as economy beats forecastshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-01/reserve-bank-bond-buying-program-interest-rates/100795814

and last night

Bank of England hikes rates in first back-to-back rise since 2004
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/bank-of-england-hikes-rates-in-first-back-to-back-rise-since-2004.html


The euro jumped against the dollar on Thursday after comments from ECB president Christine Lagarde fuelled expectations of faster monetary policy tightening, although the central bank confirmed its guidance for interest rates and its bond purchase programme.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dollar-takes-break-this-weeks-slide-ahead-boe-ecb-meetings-2022-02-03/

a flip from dec but confirming the direction they are heading
all in all confirming a large part of the world is tightening now or soon and stocks will need to adjust to a rising rate environment and inflation

[alokdhir]

i think these stocks like netflix , meta etc etc who have missed earnings and have gotten absolutely slammed in the US ( i mean wow the size of these companies and the fall in $ value is incredible ) is a warnings for nzx and asx earnings coming up.

miss and your stock price will plummet big time

Do u know the P/E these big names trade on ...TESLA is 300 ...mind boggling 300 P/E ...and its not a tech company but a manufacturing one ...but people are paying high prices to own future Apple or so . They are not looking to make money in next 2 years but investing for next 30 years ...many traders dont have that perspective of super long term investors like pension funds etc ...they dont care if next year TESLA is $ 400 ...they just know in next 10 years it maybe $ 4000 .

Traders vs Investors is different perspective of investments ..." Time in the market is more important then Timing the market "

Our FPH / MFT are also long term investment grade stocks ...may look pricey at P/E of 30 + to traders but not to investors .

[Rawz]

Meta has its own issues vs tiktok for now.. i am not entirely sure wall st understand that tiktok will one day go the way of the dodo and FB will be around forever... FB it is a key to the internet and has groups which keep you glued to their platform

[alokdhir]

cause the other big news this week is the RBA stopping QE and im sure to raise rates soon due to inflation

Reserve Bank to wrap up $350 billion stimulus program this month as economy beats forecasts

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-01/reserve-bank-bond-buying-program-interest-rates/100795814

and last night

Bank of England hikes rates in first back-to-back rise since 2004


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/bank-of-england-hikes-rates-in-first-back-to-back-rise-since-2004.html


The euro jumped against the dollar on Thursday after comments from ECB president Christine Lagarde fuelled expectations of faster monetary policy tightening, although the central bank confirmed its guidance for interest rates and its bond purchase programme.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dollar-takes-break-this-weeks-slide-ahead-boe-ecb-meetings-2022-02-03/

a flip from dec but confirming the direction they are heading
all in all confirming a large part of the world is tightening now or soon and stocks will need to adjust to a rising rate environment and inflation

RBA also said in commentary that. " No need to raise rates quickly " ....But surely they will rise ...but its not first time markets seeing rates cycle turning ...still markets do well in the long run . Yes for traders better opportunity can come ...but surely nothing big for investors .

Also IMHO ...this rate cycle will be very shallow just on the basis of huge debt levels of all Govts ...Mainly the short term difficulties of production and supply chain and people sentiment is driving inflation ...we dont have any capacity constraints ...just staff and supply issues .

Oil is big speculation going on ...from negative prices at start of pandemic to $ 100 is just speculation and supply issues driven sentiments .

Do u really think world is using more oil today then in 2019 ?

[bull....]

Do u know the P/E these big names trade on ...TESLA is 300 ...mind boggling 300 P/E ...and its not a tech company but a manufacturing one ...but people are paying high prices to own future Apple or so . They are not looking to make money in next 2 years but investing for next 30 years ...many traders dont have that perspective of super long term investors like pension funds etc ...they dont care if next year TESLA is $ 400 ...they just know in next 10 years it maybe $ 4000 .

Traders vs Investors is different perspective of investments ..." Time in the market is more important then Timing the market "

Our FPH / MFT are also long term investment grade stocks ...may look pricey at P/E of 30 + to traders but not to investors .

buying FPH/MFT etc in simple terms means it take 30 yrs to get your money back from earnings at a pe of 30 :scared: hope nothing goes wrong in those 30 yrs.

ill stick to the proven data that says most things revert to the mean at some stage

[alokdhir]

buying FPH/MFT etc in simple terms means it take 30 yrs to get your money back from earnings at a pe of 30 :scared: hope nothing goes wrong in those 30 yrs.

ill stick to the proven data that says most things revert to the mean at some stage

Then as per u the life span of TESLA investors is much longer then humans ...it will take 300 years to get your money back as per your logic ...lol

[bull....]

Then as per u the life span of TESLA investors is much longer then humans ...it will take 300 years to get your money back as per your logic ...lol

thats why i said in simple terms , for a start up as an example high pe can easliy translate into low pe in the future due to growth for the odd company but for most its just overvaluation at the moment. for old and big companies it is much harder to support such high growth rates yr after yr

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Interesting correlations between the NZX and the SP500, with the overall conclusion that the NZX is showing significant relative weakness to the SP500.

NZX dropped 10% from peak, SP500 12%. Sounds like the NZX is stronger, however you need to consider that the NZX was down in 2021, whereas SP500 was up 20%. What's really notable to me though is the retracement from the lows. The NZX has retraced 38% (bear flag territory), whereas the SP500 has retraced 62%. In my opinion the SP500 is most likely to form an equilibrium in this range it is setting for many weeks, until we see a break either way (my bet would be downwards, but I'll be playing both directions).

[Balance]

One pays up for quality which delivers year after year.

It’s that simple.

[alokdhir]

One pays up for quality which delivers year after year.

It’s that simple.

Investors understand that not traders ...as investors dont want the trouble of always on guard ...invest in good companies and forget ...not always watching screens and news feeds ...:t_up:

[Balance]

Investors understand that not traders ...as investors dont want the trouble of always on guard ...invest in good companies and forget ...not always watching screens and news feeds ...:t_up:

It is good to tuck a few high growth stocks into one’s portfolio but must never be to the extent of losing sleep over them. That’s not investing but gambling then.

[alokdhir]

It is good to tuck a few high growth stocks into one’s portfolio but must never be to the extent of losing sleep over them. That’s not investing but gambling then.

Investors never gamble ...they invest for long term ...they have 5-10 years view ...Traders gamble with 1-90 days view ...

[Balance]

This is the kind of headlines which have newbie short term traders reaching for their Valium:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/world-markets/facebooks-meta-shares-plummet-20-per-cent-company-loses-200-billion/news-story/b2fe72745f570e207b12caf316f47140

“Mark Zuckerberg has experienced one of the most drastic drops in wealth ever, and it has sent shockwaves around the globe.”

So what has that got to do with the price of milk?

No mention of the fact that FB or Meta was grossly overvalued in the first place and its rise and rise had generated hundreds of billions of dollars of gains & wealth for Mark & FB shareholders. They are only giving back some of the inflated gains.

Not so good obviously for the traders who bought (especially those using leverage like call options) in the last week in anticipation of a great result.

[alokdhir]

This is the kind of headlines which have newbie short term traders reaching for their Valium:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/world-markets/facebooks-meta-shares-plummet-20-per-cent-company-loses-200-billion/news-story/b2fe72745f570e207b12caf316f47140

No mention of the fact that FB or Meta was grossly overvalued in the first place and its rise and rise had generated hundreds of billions of dollars of gains & wealth for Mark & FB shareholders. They are only giving back some of the inflated gains.

Not so good obviously for the traders who bought (especially those using leverage like call options) in the last week in anticipation of a great result.

As a trader one will be buying in FB at 25% cut ...it will surely bounce after market participants will agree with some rationale to bounce it up ...Netflix type case ..very recent

[Balance]

As a trader one will be buying in FB at 25% cut ...it will surely bounce after market participants will agree with some rationale to bounce it up ...Netflix type case ..very recent

For sure it is going to bounce once the panic stricken traders are ‘helped’ out of their stock - seen too many times over the years how the big players layer multiple offers on the sell side, spooking the inexperienced & jumpy traders out of the stock.

We see the same behaviour with postings on ST often enough!

[bull....]

facebook or meta is not a growth stock anymore its a mature old company thats now in decline and only used by old farts not young people. so long term investors will lose , traders have won who sold at the highs

[Balance]

facebook or meta is not a growth stock anymore its a mature old company thats now in decline and only used by old farts not young people. so long term investors will lose , traders have won who sold at the highs

Traders have lost big time who bought in the last few weeks.

Long term investors are still sitting on humongous gains which they can realise still - especially to the short term traders.

[bull....]

time in the market is a sales pitch from investment firms to keep your money with them lol

[bull....]

Traders have lost big time who bought in the last few weeks.

Long term
Investors are still sitting on humongous gains which they can realise still - especially to the short term traders.

lol they may have been new long term investors bit rich suggesting they are only traders. those new long term investors are had it never make any money now , bit like long term a2 investors who brought at the highs.

buy low sell high wins always

[mcdongle]

RBA also said in commentary that. " No need to raise rates quickly " ....But surely they will rise ...but its not first time markets seeing rates cycle turning ...still markets do well in the long run . Yes for traders better opportunity can come ...but surely nothing big for investors .

Also IMHO ...this rate cycle will be very shallow just on the basis of huge debt levels of all Govts ...Mainly the short term difficulties of production and supply chain and people sentiment is driving inflation ...we dont have any capacity constraints ...just staff and supply issues .

Oil is big speculation going on ...from negative prices at start of pandemic to $ 100 is just speculation and supply issues driven sentiments .

Do u really think world is using more oil today then in 2019 ?

Oil consumption in 2019 was 99.7 million barrels per day. In 2021 it was 96.90 million, In the link the EIA estimate this year it will be 100.5 million. So we could be close.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Bit of a pointless argument. There are both long term investors and traders who would have bought recently and had significant losses. There are also long term investors and traders who have massive profits.

I will note however that a smart trader doesn't gamble, they manage their risk. If you gamble on earnings then you deserve to lose.

[Balance]

time in the market is a sales pitch from investment firms to keep your money with them lol

Words of a fool.

Tell that to Bershire Hathaway shareholders or long term investors in the tracker funds in the US markets.