Black Monday

[Panda-NZ-]

No no - mine was 28.5% pa

If inflation is 15% then subtract 15.

[greater fool]

No no - mine was 28.5% pa

Ha. My mortgage got to 'only' 21%.
But, then a very fine NZ Prime Minister, Sir Robert Muldoon, regulated mortgage rates to a max of 11%.
Saved me hundreds (maybe thousands? ) of dollars for which I'm very grateful.

[Rawz]

All these stories of 20% mortgage rates blah blah, doesnt mean much when you buy your house for 1 pound ;)

Spare a thought for us millennials with $1m mortgages. We are inheriting a broken system. Not to worry, we will fix it. First things first put the retirement age up to 68-70yr :)

[dabsman]

All these stories of 20% mortgage rates blah blah, doesnt mean much when you buy your house for 1 pound ;)

Spare a thought for us millennials with $1m mortgages. We are inheriting a broken system. Not to worry, we will fix it. First things first put the retirement age up to 68-70yr :)

I'm not 50 yet. I'm assuming I wont get any superannuation either via age changes or means testing or both. Wont be a problem living in Bali then greece then mexico then cuba...

[Getty]

All these stories of 20% mortgage rates blah blah, doesnt mean much when you buy your house for 1 pound ;)

Spare a thought for us millennials with $1m mortgages. We are inheriting a broken system. Not to worry, we will fix it. First things first put the retirement age up to 68-70yr :)

Gee, you are a hard man Rawz.

First you want to move my pension away from me, then you will probably default on that $ 1M I lent you, to pay too much for your material possession.

I wish you were homeless! lol

[Rawz]

Gee, you are a hard man Rawz.

First you want to move my pension away from me, then you will probably default on that $ 1M I lent you, to pay too much for your material possession.

I wish you were homeless! lol

Lol not far wrong, Getty. Best load up on the retail stocks. We can't help ourselves but spend spend spend :p

Don't worry about the $1m. It's safe as, in fact you are actually helping me pay it thanks to inflation and the negative real rates you earn on cash in the bank. Cheers to you :t_up:

[greater fool]

All these stories of 20% mortgage rates blah blah, doesnt mean much when you buy your house for 1 pound ;)
Spare a thought for us millennials with $1m mortgages. We are inheriting a broken system. Not to worry, we will fix it. First things first put the retirement age up to 68-70yr :)

Jeez. Pounds went out in 1967. https://nzhistory.govt.nz/nz-adopts-decimal-currency
(https://nzhistory.govt.nz/nz-adopts-decimal-currency)
PS. It was Lange, Palmer and Moore who wrecked the country. Damn those Rogernomes.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/visit-and-learn/mps-and-parliaments-1854-onwards/prime-ministers-of-new-zealand-since-1856/

[RTM]

No no - mine was 28.5% pa

I only got to 24....but is was a 3rd Mort. 18, 21 & 24 %
Yikes...what was I thinking.

[Panda-NZ-]

11% only in real terms for a 1980 mortgage. This was years after a period of high inflation which erased part of the debt.

[Panda-NZ-]

Interesting to see how inflation plays into everyone's thoughts.

Not long ago the govt could borrow at 0.5% and they would come out way ahead with 3% inflation rates.

[Panda-NZ-]

Well played Biden.

US will never be at risk of default again when they can just mint new coins.

https://www.axios.com/trillion-dollar-platinum-coin-mint-janet-yellen-223e7722-d7ba-47c9-b5f6-49a841d181de.html

[Joshuatree]

Crazy ehh:confused::eek2::mellow:

OR what about making a Fungible token of Trump drinking bleach with a thought bubble above saying "I feel great, aargh" and sell it to a digital wallet holder for a $trillion then do another one etc.

[Panda-NZ-]

Nah he would like it too much.

Wow I'm on a 1 trillion dollar coin, that must mean I'm the best and most tremendous president.
Im better than both Lincoln and washington. They didn't get numbers like this.

[peat]

Well played Biden.

US will never be at risk of default again when they can just mint new coins.

https://www.axios.com/trillion-dollar-platinum-coin-mint-janet-yellen-223e7722-d7ba-47c9-b5f6-49a841d181de.html


Ŧħê Ēŋđ ĩş Ňīĝħ

[causecelebre]

Well played Biden.

US will never be at risk of default again when they can just mint new coins.

https://www.axios.com/trillion-dollar-platinum-coin-mint-janet-yellen-223e7722-d7ba-47c9-b5f6-49a841d181de.html

We'll be using those as skipping stones soon enough

[Bobdn]

Loving the energy crunch and the "revenge of the old economy" as one analyst put it.

A lot of kiwisaver funds proudly have zero exposure to energy lol.

[Panda-NZ-]

Market in recovery again.

Countries like germany really need to go on a debt binge to build up their country. Plenty of scope for that.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmbmkde-10y?countrycode=bx

[Hoop]

Well played Biden.

US will never be at risk of default again when they can just mint new coins.

https://www.axios.com/trillion-dollar-platinum-coin-mint-janet-yellen-223e7722-d7ba-47c9-b5f6-49a841d181de.html

.................................................. .................................................. ..................................
13060

[Panda-NZ-]

There's something behind your ear.. a $1T coin maybe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RVFMKnPp7o&t=230s

[peat]

There's something behind your ear.. a $1T coin maybe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RVFMKnPp7o&t=230s

in this thread we're waiting for a Colbert market.

[Bjauck]

We'll be using those as skipping stones soon enough A Platinum 1 oz trillion dollar coin will be worth a small discount to the current value of the precious metal. If Uncle Sam forced people to accept trillion dollar one ounce platinum coins as settlement of debt, the resultant inflation would render the metal content of the coin much more valuable than its face value.

My 1/10 oz gold Britannia has a face value legal tender of 10 GBP but it would be stupid to go to a shop in the UK to buy items priced at 10 GBP, as the value of its gold is currently 129 GBP. So its melt-down value is about 115 GBP..

[winner69]

Not that many years ago (this century) I posted that debt around the world was trilions and got well and truly lambasted for exaggerating things ……like comments ‘you have no idea how much a trillion is’ / ‘do you even know how many billions in a trillion?’

How the world has changed

Reminded me when US was in Iraq Bush’s aide told him they had killed a brazillian and was asked ‘how many millions in a brazillian’

[BlackPeter]

...

Reminded me when US was in Iraq Bush’s aide told him they had killed a brazillian and was asked ‘how many millions in a brazillian’

Ouch.

Thanks for reminding us that the US have a proud history of Republican idiots running the white house ...

[Bjauck]

Ouch.

Thanks for reminding us that the US have a proud history of Republican idiots running the white house ... I am sure Trump would have known what a Brazilian was!

[Hoop]

" Not that many years ago (this century) I posted that debt around the world was trilions and got well and truly lambasted for exaggerating things ……like comments ‘you have no idea how much a trillion is’ / ‘do you even know how many billions in a trillion?’

........................................"
Quadrillions next ..eh Winner:D

[Tomtom]

There's something behind your ear.. a $1T coin maybe. With the way inflation is going in a few years you won't get change for a metric pint of milk.

[causecelebre]

I am sure Trump would have known what a Brazilian was!

As would President Clinton, no doubt

[bull....]

heres an article from global times on evergrande laying out how they might manage the downfall

GT Voice: External pressure won’t affect China’s pace of deflating bubbles

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235756.shtml

[greater fool]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/a-record-4point3-million-workers-quit-their-jobs-in-august-led-by-food-and-retail-industries.html

"Workers left their jobs at a record pace in August, with bar and restaurant employees as well as retail staff quitting in droves, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.
Quits hit a new series high going back to December 2000, as 4.3 million workers left their jobs. The quits rate rose to 2.9%, an increase of 242,000 from the previous month, which saw a rate of 2.7%, according to the department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The rate, which is measured against total employment, is the highest in a data series that goes back to December 2000."



https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/inflation-depresses-later-will-clobber-stocks/

"More than 50% of respondents to the National Federation of Independent Business September survey said that jobs are hard to fill, by far the highest proportion in history.
In other words, even a 4% pay increase isn’t enough to lure workers back into the workforce. That means weaker supply chains, more production delays, and even higher inflation.
At some point the Federal Reserve will have to do what it has done so many times in its depressing past – namely, tighten monetary policy and reduce demand. If people can’t get credit, they won’t buy things at higher prices. But that means a much slower economy, lower profits and a nasty shakeout in the stock market."

[Panda-NZ-]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/a-record-4point3-million-workers-quit-their-jobs-in-august-led-by-food-and-retail-industries.html

"Workers left their jobs at a record pace in August, with bar and restaurant employees as well as retail staff quitting in droves, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.
Quits hit a new series high going back to December 2000, as 4.3 million workers left their jobs. The quits rate rose to 2.9%, an increase of 242,000 from the previous month, which saw a rate of 2.7%, according to the department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The rate, which is measured against total employment, is the highest in a data series that goes back to December 2000."




People there are truly vile as customers.

I don't know why nurses stay only to treat self-inflicted health issues (both corona and obesity).

Simply take a holiday for two years :)

[winner69]

Inflation not too bad ….RBNZ preferred measure is its sectoral factor CPI

Annual inflationntomSept now 2.7% ….up from 2.4% at June

No worries

[Biscuit]

Inflation not too bad ….RBNZ preferred measure is its sectoral factor CPI

Annual inflationntomSept now 2.7% ….up from 2.4% at June

No worries

No worries... but economists are always worried: Inflation is either trending worryingly high or worryingly low or there is a worry with unemployment or if unemployment is low, there is potentially a problem with workforce participation or.... I like to read Treasury reports but would never base investment decisions on them. Those guys worry too much.

[bull....]

US markets on the verge of new all time highs and we are just about to enter a very good seasonal market period

[bull....]

bitcoin going mainstream as an investment alternative now and hitting new all time highs. my farmer friend says hes made a killing from buying etherum at $600 better than milking the cows he reckons and more fun ( i keep telling him take some profits at least lol )

First bitcoin futures ETF rises 3% in trading debut on the NYSE
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/first-bitcoin-futures-etf-rises-2percent-in-trading-debut.html

[Biscuit]

bitcoin going mainstream as an investment alternative now and hitting new all time highs. my farmer friend says hes made a killing from buying etherum at $600 better than milking the cows he reckons and more fun ( i keep telling him take some profits at least lol )

First bitcoin futures ETF rises 3% in trading debut on the NYSE


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/first-bitcoin-futures-etf-rises-2percent-in-trading-debut.html

Yeah, that is a classic bubble that everyone is going to say was obviously a bubble with hindsight once it bursts.

[allfromacell]

Yeah, that is a classic bubble that everyone is going to say was obviously a bubble with hindsight once it bursts.

Decentralised finance which now has over $230B USD locked up earning annual returns at rates far greater than traditional finance mostly due to efficiency gains, unlikely.

I can lockup some crypto and borrow money against it at x5 leverage right now at less than 8% p.a with zero KYC or government compliance requirements from any place in the solar system with an internet cconnection (even China). There is nothing any government or central bank can do about it.

That's powerful and clearly valuable. You need to think bigger and use your imagination about what code, finance and trustless cryptography can enable, we are only scratching the surface.

https://defillama.com/chains

[Entrep]

Decentralised finance which now has over $230B USD locked up earning annual returns at rates far greater than traditional finance mostly due to efficiency gains, unlikely.

I can lockup some crypto and borrow money against it at x5 leverage right now at less than 8% p.a with zero KYC or government compliance requirements from any place in the solar system with an internet cconnection (even China). There is nothing any government or central bank can do about it.

That's powerful and clearly valuable. You need to think bigger and use your imagination about what code, finance and trustless cryptography can enable, we are only scratching the surface.

https://defillama.com/chains

https://media.giphy.com/media/gHFi5N6uU3TLq/giphy.gif

[Biscuit]

Decentralised finance which now has over $230B USD locked up earning annual returns at rates far greater than traditional finance mostly due to efficiency gains, unlikely.

I can lockup some crypto and borrow money against it at x5 leverage right now at less than 8% p.a with zero KYC or government compliance requirements from any place in the solar system with an internet cconnection (even China). There is nothing any government or central bank can do about it.

That's powerful and clearly valuable. You need to think bigger and use your imagination about what code, finance and trustless cryptography can enable, we are only scratching the surface.

https://defillama.com/chains

I'm old and cynical o' multicellular one and I learnt long ago to keep my imagination in check when choosing investments. I'm fairly sure crypto currency has a great future but possibly not until the current crop of investors have watched their money burn to black crispy nothing.

Is crypto finance necessarily any more decentralised than regular finance, and is that an advantage, and to whom?
I don't know what "locked up" means in this context but it doesn't sound good.
I don't know what KYC is - like KFC but not fried?.
I didn't know you could borrow anything from anywhere in the solar system other than Earth.
If all this is what's on "the surface" I'd hate to think what's underneath.

You best ignore me Allfromacell. As you see I come from a different age, and possibly a different planet.

[allfromacell]

I'm old and cynical o' multicellular one and I learnt long ago to keep my imagination in check when choosing investments. I'm fairly sure crypto currency has a great future but possibly not until the current crop of investors have watched their money burn to black crispy nothing.

Is crypto finance necessarily any more decentralised than regular finance, and is that an advantage, and to whom?
I don't know what "locked up" means in this context but it doesn't sound good.
I don't know what KYC is - like KFC but not fried?.
I didn't know you could borrow anything from anywhere in the solar system other than Earth.
If all this is what's on "the surface" I'd hate to think what's underneath.

You best ignore me Allfromacell. As you see I come from a different age, and possibly a different planet.

LOL! Fair enough Sir.

If you're ever curious enough to get some serious answers to your questions feel free to come over to the CryptoCurrency forum.

Who knows, maybe I can help teach some old dogs new tricks.

[bull....]

bitcoin new highs

Bitcoin jumps to new high above $66,000 after landmark U.S. ETF launch




https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/20/bitcoin-jumps-to-new-record-high-above-65000-after-landmark-us-etf-launch.html


were did i leave my hard drive from 2013 :scared:


The Dow Jones Industrial average jumped to a record on Wednesday as investor sentiment was boosted by better-than-expected earnings reports and a new record for bitcoin

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

see tom lee raised his yr end target sp500 to 4800 based on earnings and seasonals.

also dont forget we get stock buybacks beginning on nov 1 so that will support the market as well

[FTG]

One could probably say it every week, but I reckon this week or next will give us a good indication to which way the medium term trend will head.
Key support just below on the S & P 500 at 4230 and resistance above at 4450. Which way will it break? Only time will tell.

Well, there you go folks. She has now clearly broken to the upside, going to ATH's (albeit since the 4/10 low, on reducing volume and with a declining A/D line).
The key support at 4230 was briefly tested but respected, further solidifying its significance. In fact the low in the month long corrective move was pretty much kissing it.

Next resistance is 4600, then circa 4750. Bears need to respect the market, regardless of perceived irrationality. No Black Monday's yet!

[bull....]

US is still the main action market.
big moves last week like trumps spac 1600% 1 week if you were lucky to catch the top.

this is better than owning hotels

[causecelebre]

US is still the main action market.
big moves last week like trumps spac 1600% 1 week if you were lucky to catch the top.

this is better than owning hotels

At its peak around $157 (from memory) Trumps personal interest in DWAC was effectively around $18-22b. This is a nose thumb and a response to the desire for an alternative to big tech owned media. Its a $300m cash shell with no tech, no staff, no office and $22b worth of brand value and good will. Imagine the amount of $ that could be raised a secondary stock sale or a convert and then go on to do something meaningful. I shudder to think. Do not underestimate Trump and his followers.

[Panda-NZ-]

I love google/alphabet.

So many free to low cost products: android, cloud, email.

All human proteins simulated in a month by their AI, plus made open-source. They can use my data how they like as long as they keep this stuff coming.
https://alphafold.ebi.ac.uk/

[causecelebre]

Golly I love google/alphabet.

So many free to low cost products: android, cloud, email.

All human proteins simulated in a month by their AI, plus made open-source.
https://alphafold.ebi.ac.uk/

They can use my data how they like as long as they keep this stuff coming.

And AI will only become more accessible as training costs continue to dramatically reduce. This is a classic example of Wrights Law in action.

[Panda-NZ-]

IT is interesting what will become of it.

In Ray Kurzweill's book he states that it will take a while to develop something which can match human intelligence, but then a really short time until exceeding all human intelligence combined.

[Crypto Crude]

At its peak around $157 (from memory) Trumps personal interest in DWAC was effectively around $18-22b. This is a nose thumb and a response to the desire for an alternative to big tech owned media. Its a $300m cash shell with no tech, no staff, no office and $22b worth of brand value and good will. Imagine the amount of $ that could be raised a secondary stock sale or a convert and then go on to do something meaningful. I shudder to think. Do not underestimate Trump and his followers.

How do you get trumps interest being 18-22 billion... when the total value is now only 2.9 billion ish??
:cool:cc

[Biscuit]

.....in a really short time until exceeding all human intelligence combined.

Have a look at any mass of Trump supporters to see an illustration of the limitations of combining human intelligence.

[Rawz]

Have a look at any mass of Trump supporters to see an illustration of the limitations of combining human intelligence.
That’s a deplorable comment

[Biscuit]

That’s a deplorable comment

I'd say it was an accurate comment. Individual Trump supporters don't particularly lack morality or intelligence, but collectively, you end up with Q-anon conspiracy theories and insurrection. Human intelligence does not necessarily combine to create a greater whole.

[Rawz]

I'd say it was an accurate comment. Individual Trump supporters don't particularly lack morality or intelligence, but collectively, you end up with Q-anon conspiracy theories and insurrection. Human intelligence does not necessarily combine to create a greater whole.

I was only joking mate. It just reminded me when Clinton and the left completely underestimated Trump’s chances of winning by thinking all his supporters were bible hugging, gun shooting, inbred white males- ‘deplorables’. But there were a heap of undercover everyday middle class female, black, Mexican etc people that voted him in

[BlackPeter]

Have a look at any mass of Trump supporters to see an illustration of the limitations of combining human intelligence.

Intelligence is defined as "the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills".

Knowledge is "a familiarity, awareness, or understanding of someone or something, such as facts, information, descriptions, or skills, which is acquired through experience or education by perceiving, discovering, or learning"

Given that Trump supporters only thrive in acquiring lies and despise and ignore facts, they neither acquire nor apply knowledge, which means that they themselves limit their intelligence (as per above definition) to Zero.

From maths ... no matter how often you add Zero of anything together, the total will stay Zero.

[mondograss]

13146
Applies pretty well I find.

[causecelebre]

How do you get trumps interest being 18-22 billion... when the total value is now only 2.9 billion ish??
:cool:cc

At it's peak @ $157. DWAC has a $1.7b valuation if it hits a certain stock price according to their presser (though there's no SEC filing on it) this gives Trump effectively around 170m shares.

[FTG]

Knowledge is "a familiarity, awareness, or understanding of someone or something, such as facts, information, descriptions, or skills, which is acquired through experience or education by perceiving, discovering, or learning"



Is this definition yours BP, or have you just regurgitated it from a dictionary or similar?

The implication in your definition is that because you have knowledge, then you must understand?

Would have thought through observation we can see that the world is abundant of "knowledgeable" people, who actually don't have much true understanding??

[winner69]

Today’s HedgeEye cartoon

[nztx]

Today’s HedgeEye cartoon

Good one - Winner

ANZ's Economic bods say forecast 6% - did I see for next 2 years ? ;)

May be some borrower's worst fears coming home to roost in next couple of years
fast on the heels of the Covid inflicted carnage and Govt grappling with large
artificially created Debt problems ;)

[Biscuit]

Is this definition your definition BP, or have you just regurgitated it from a dictionary or similar?....

This conversation has become too subtle and complex for my mind.

[bull....]

bitcoin going mainstream as an investment alternative now and hitting new all time highs. my farmer friend says hes made a killing from buying etherum at $600 better than milking the cows he reckons and more fun ( i keep telling him take some profits at least lol )

First bitcoin futures ETF rises 3% in trading debut on the NYSE


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/first-bitcoin-futures-etf-rises-2percent-in-trading-debut.html

im looking a bit silly to my farmer friend now after etherum up 56% for the mth lol and please dont mention squid i dont want to hear about it.
up 40000 % for the week lol named after the hit series the squid game.....

back to stocks they had there best mth all year

MARKETS (https://www.cnbc.com/markets/)Stocks close at record highs, market notches best month of the year
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

even NZ managed a gain for the mth lol .02% better than red i guess

big week next week fed meeting and maybe tapering announcement

[Panda-NZ-]

big week next week fed meeting and maybe tapering announcement

November is typically a good month for the S&P so we'll see.

[Panda-NZ-]

I can't believe someone hasn't tried to place a recording device in Mr Powells office lol.

[Dlownz]

I can't believe someone hasn't tried to place a voice recording device in J.Powells office lol.

Trillions to be made.
There is. We just don't know about it 😁.
Someone else is making alot of money

[Panda-NZ-]

The real money has been made several days before the announcement ..

[causecelebre]

Bit of a dilemma for the Fed as to whether to raise rates. They can't do such as Volker did in '80-81 with borrowing at 125% of GDP the cost of servicing that debt will be prohibitive. Keeping a close eye on how the Fed will manage inflation this time around

[winner69]

NZ unemployment rate at all time low if 3.4%

Sometimes low unemployment rates and sharemarket close to record highs signal an impending recession and a market decline

[Biscuit]

NZ unemployment rate at all time low if 3.4%

Sometimes low unemployment rates and sharemarket close to record highs signal an impending recession

Might it be more accurate to say ".... coincide with..." rather than "...signal..."? Over time, especially good times, the sharemarket spends a lot of time at or near record highs as its value is continually increasing. That's just intrinsic to a rising sharemarket. Low unemployment is also indicative of good times. Good times always come before bad times.

[bull....]

china told its citizens to start stock piling the cupboards

[Beau]

china told its citizens to start stock piling the cupboards

After a surge of covid and a unusual heavy rain have made a vegetable shortage / hardly world news.

[winner69]

Last time NZ unemployment was 3.4% was December 2007 .....15 months later NZ50 was down about 40% and in middle of a recession

[Baa_Baa]

Last time NZ unemployment was 3.4% was December 2007 .....15 months later NZ50 was down about 40% and in middle of a recession

The GFC occurred in between those dates, so it is a long bow to draw a causal relationship between super low unemployment rates and the depths of the NZX during the GFC.

[winner69]

The GFC occurred in between those dates, so it is a long bow to draw a causal relationship between super low unemployment rates and the depths of the NZX during the GFC.

NZ was already in recession before the GFC hit the world

[winner69]

The GFC occurred in between those dates, so it is a long bow to draw a causal relationship between super low unemployment rates and the depths of the NZX during the GFC.

Quite of few times over the years where low unemployment rates are followed by a market decline .... and vice versa ....at least in US

Don't discount that it might happen here (again) this time around

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Quite of few times over the years where low unemployment rates are followed by a market decline .... and vice versa ....at least in US

Don't discount that it might happen here (again) this time around

They say unemployment bottoming out is a preceding recession indicator.

[Panda-NZ-]

Reserve banks are more aggressive this time.

In the GFC inflation hit -2% in the US which should never happen.

[Biscuit]

They say unemployment bottoming out is a preceding recession indicator.

You wouldn't need to know anything to know that is true. Low unemployment is only going to bottom out just before the economy contracts. How else could it work mathematically?

[mike2020]

You wouldn't need to know anything to know that is true. Low unemployment is only going to bottom out just before the economy contracts. How else could it work mathematically?
Mathematically, does this mean the returns on my divi stocks will look even better given I can't see their business changing? I might get a buying op right?

[bull....]

markets seem to be happy fed is stopping there money printing.

Fed to start tapering bond purchases later this month as it begins pulling back on pandemic aid
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/fed-decision-taper-timetable-as-it-starts-pulling-back-on-pandemic-era-economic-aid-.html

[Biscuit]

markets seem to be happy fed is stopping there money printing.

Fed to start tapering bond purchases later this month as it begins pulling back on pandemic aid


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/fed-decision-taper-timetable-as-it-starts-pulling-back-on-pandemic-era-economic-aid-.html

"tapering" isn't quite the same as "stopping". The foot is very reluctant to come off the accelerator despite labour shortages, supply shortages and as inflation is out the stable door and hoofing it for the hills.

[bull....]

Crypto World Hits $3 Trillion Market Cap as Ether, Bitcoin Gain


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/crypto-world-hits-3-trillion-market-cap-as-ether-bitcoin-gain?srnd=premium-asia

heres a link to the market cap charts

https://www.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/global-charts/


bubble ? or reality

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Opened a UVXY hedge position today in anticipate of short term pullback on US markets sometime in next week or so.

[bull....]

Opened a UVXY hedge position today in anticipate of short term pullback on US markets sometime in next week or so.

brave .... us markets longest winning streak for years although bit overbrought short term but the melt- up underway into xmas/new year my pick

[JohnnyTheHorse]

brave .... us markets longest winning streak for years although bit overbrought short term but the melt- up underway into xmas/new year my pick

I regularly take these positions when daily and weekly RSI are at historical pullback levels and there is FOMO in the market. Watch how quickly that FOMO turns to FEAR when the tree gets shaken (resulting in a huge VIX spike). I am only looking for daily consolidation before continuation of the rally, so the hedge is just protecting gains. I agree that your medium term thesis has a high likelihood and believe it'll likely result in a long term top.

You'll also notice that the VIX has been going up whilst the market has been going up - indicating others have the same thinking. Just got to hope that's smart money and not the herd money or I'll get smoked.

[allfromacell]

Crypto World Hits $3 Trillion Market Cap as Ether, Bitcoin Gain


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-08/crypto-world-hits-3-trillion-market-cap-as-ether-bitcoin-gain?srnd=premium-asia

heres a link to the market cap charts


https://www.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/global-charts/


bubble ? or reality

It took 10 years to reach 1T and 10 more months to reach 3T. We’ll have a few crashes along the way but 10T will happen faster than most are anticipating. I believe if one doesn’t have a little but of exposure to digital assets you’re being reckless.

[FTG]

I regularly take these positions when daily and weekly RSI are at historical pullback levels and there is FOMO in the market. Watch how quickly that FOMO turns to FEAR when the tree gets shaken (resulting in a huge VIX spike). I am only looking for daily consolidation before continuation of the rally, so the hedge is just protecting gains. I agree that your medium term thesis has a high likelihood and believe it'll likely result in a long term top.

You'll also notice that the VIX has been going up whilst the market has been going up - indicating others have the same thinking. Just got to hope that's smart money and not the herd money or I'll get smoked.


Likewise, just starting to scale in on a position with VIXM. Generally speaking, when ones starts playing the VIX when its at the bottom end of the range, it's quite hard to lose money over the med term; regardless of market direction.

Conversely & just a "feeling", but to me the US market has the signs of being about to enter into another melt-up phase. Possibly short & sharp & without a lot of supporting rationality. If so, perhaps it would take out my 4750 target and go as far as giving the big 5 a crack?

In fact when I reflect further, I think it could be argued that we are ALREADY in another melt-up stage. The move up from the early Oct low has displayed plenty of irrational attributes.

[BlackPeter]

It took 10 years to reach 1T and 10 more months to reach 3T. We’ll have a few crashes along the way but 10T will happen faster than most are anticipating. I believe if one doesn’t have a little but of exposure to digital assets you’re being reckless.

The problem with believe systems is that whatever your bubble chooses to believe, everybody outside this bubble thinks it is nuts. Actually - this is the very definition of a religion. You must believe something which makes you distinct from any other bubble.

[allfromacell]

The problem with believe systems is that whatever your bubble chooses to believe, everybody outside this bubble thinks it is nuts. Actually - this is the very definition of a religion. You must believe something which makes you distinct from any other bubble.

Well I can’t exactly state that as fact, it’s ‘belief’ based off firm fundamental metrics including massive efficiencies & institutional acceptance along with retail adoption. John Key, chairman of ANZ is now onboard, pretty much anyone paying attention can see the huge amounts of efficiencies gained through decentralised finance and capital follows efficiencies like gravity regardless of what one believes.

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/113079/anz-nz-chairman-john-key-says-retail-and-central-banks-should-use

[BlackPeter]

Well I can’t exactly state that as fact, it’s ‘belief’ based off firm fundamental metrics including massive efficiencies & institutional acceptance along with retail adoption. John Key, chairman of ANZ is now onboard, pretty much anyone paying attention can see the huge amounts of efficiencies gained through decentralised finance and capital follows efficiencies like gravity regardless of what one believes.

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/113079/anz-nz-chairman-john-key-says-retail-and-central-banks-should-use

Different pair of shoes.

Sir John indicated that banks might want to look into using crypto, perhaps create their own. Fine - as they say, the bank (or the house) always wins.

Does not mean that it might be a good idea to invest into cryptos ... I guess at the end they are endlessly multipliable. Limited demand, unlimited supply. What does market theory tell us about this situation? Every country, every bank, every organisation, every hacker can (and probably will) produce its own crypto currency ... and some of them probably will be used for some purposes. Does not mean it is a great idea to invest into the existing cryptos unless you know which one will win the race and which will fail ...

Anyway - this is for a different thread, though the association with Black Monday might be highly appropriate.

[allfromacell]

Different pair of shoes.

Sir John indicated that banks might want to look into using crypto, perhaps create their own. Fine - as they say, the bank (or the house) always wins.

Does not mean that it might be a good idea to invest into cryptos ... I guess at the end they are endlessly multipliable. Limited demand, unlimited supply. What does market theory tell us about this situation? Every country, every bank, every organisation, every hacker can (and probably will) produce its own crypto currency ... and some of them probably will be used for some purposes. Does not mean it is a great idea to invest into the existing cryptos unless you know which one will win the race and which will fail ...

Anyway - this is for a different thread, though the association with Black Monday might be highly appropriate.

Yes agree completely, ultimately every central bank will have their own token that can be exchanged 1:1 to fiat, a token that can be used across 100s of layer 1s and is nonfungible no matter where it resides. The war occurring right now in crypto is which base layer (layer 1) will win, I suspect ultimately there will only be one.

Regardless it’s clear this is the fastest growing asset class and that is unlikely to slow down anytime soon. Investors who diversify across the blue chips will do well just like they do in traditional markets.

Feel free to join us in the CC corner, it’s nice to be able to discuss crypto with people who are agnostic and or non-believers.

[BlackPeter]

.

Feel free to join us in the CC corner, it’s nice to be able to discuss crypto with people who are agnostic and or non-believers.

Cheers, but I spend already too much of my time with the nutcases spreading antivaxxer theories :) - no time to take on another senseless battle;

[peat]

Opened a UVXY hedge position today in anticipate of short term pullback on US markets sometime in next week or so.

its started already.

[bull....]

its started already.

fed just put out a note

Fed Warns Risky-Asset Prices Are Rising, Adding to Crash Worries
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-warns-risky-asset-prices-are-rising-adding-to-crash-worries-1.1678897

[JohnnyTheHorse]

its started already.

Looking for a confirmed 4hr downtrend on the futures before I get too excited. Then elevated bear volume tomorrow.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/d10oPpbz/

[Panda-NZ-]

Infrastructure bill (another stimulus) only passed a couple days ago.

[causecelebre]

It took 10 years to reach 1T and 10 more months to reach 3T. We’ll have a few crashes along the way but 10T will happen faster than most are anticipating. I believe if one doesn’t have a little but of exposure to digital assets you’re being reckless.

At the very least liquid swaps on stable coins earn 6-7%

[bull....]

closed my very short term nasdaq short , long gold

[bull....]

probably closed my nasdaq a bit early but the gold trade is going gangbusters. might be breaking out of the weekly consolidation time will tell


U.S. consumer prices jump 6.2% in October, the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html


inflation can be real bad if it takes of
gonna crush poor people going forward if its persistant and make plenty of the middle class new poor people :scared: thank goodness asset prices still going up


The red hot CPI report (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=shareba r) on Wednesday pushed investors into inflation hedges old and new, as stocks and bonds came under pressure.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/gold-bitcoin-lead-gains-in-inflation-hedges-following-biggest-cpi-jump-in-3-decades.html

either still going gangbusters at the moment

[JohnnyTheHorse]

probably closed my nasdaq a bit early but the gold trade is going gangbusters. might be breaking out of the weekly consolidation time will tell

I only got my first gold fill as that weekly consolidation was very short lived. Looking like a setup for longer term rally, especially with gold going up with the US dollar at the same time.

[FTG]

Opened a UVXY hedge position today in anticipate of short term pullback on US markets sometime in next week or so.

Looking good Johnny. Lovely timing on the entry.

[bull....]

I only got my first gold fill as that weekly consolidation was very short lived. Looking like a setup for longer term rally, especially with gold going up with the US dollar at the same time.

normally gold goes down when dollar goes up , so yea means very strong buying in gold today probably blew some shorts out with that spike to 1868 on that inflation print.

your short looking good market probably getting a little nervous over the implications of inflation on the fed thinking , but the fed might need a another print to start going what the ....

[causecelebre]

edit: deleted, don't believe what you read on twitter, even 'reputable' sources

[Panda-NZ-]

Could OPEC be in breach of WTO rules? If not, then the rules need some revision.

Seek penalties for this situation from their members. :)

[Bobdn]

Hopefully oil prices will keep rising. I still have more of tilt in that direction through things like Vanguard's VDE and ishares IXC. I do sell a bit here and there because we all know things can change overnight and no one has gone broke taking a profit.

As long as OPEC remains disciplined and the US government (in fact all governments) continue to discourage new drilling, I'm hopeful I'll continue to get paid over the next three years or so. But seriously, this sector can disappoint so I'm trying not to be too greedy.

[Panda-NZ-]

Clean water will be the new oil I would think.

https://www.globalxetfs.com/content/files/AQWA-factsheet.pdf

The underlying index:
https://www.solactive.com/Indices/?index=DE000SLA6Z81

[Bobdn]

No, copper is, according to Goldman Sachs.

[winner69]

JP Morgan updated their 2022 year-end price target on the S&P 500 to 4,440, which would represent a decline of 6.0% from the current price or about -5% total return.

Lucky that JP Morgan are pretty useless forecasters

[Bobdn]

JP Morgan have been spot on mostly. Can you fire through a link? Thanks. I have JP Morgan at 4700 year end.

[bull....]

sp 500 4900 my target end of yr.

we are on a roll

2019 29%
2020 16%
2021 26% my pick
2022 35% ? lol

[Bobdn]

Yep! Nzx is still in negative territory for the year. A few people are being taught some painful lessons about the need to diversify I'm guessing (and no that doesn't mean adding another NZ electricity generator to go with the other two already held ;)

[bull....]

lol nzx a bad yr alright , but to be fair the odd stock has done really well if you were lucky to pick it. nzx was the leading market before this yr. wonder if it leads the rest of the world markets :scared:

[Bobdn]

Yeah true. I'm still invested in it and will stay invested (16 per cent of investable assets) but no new money is going towards it.

[bull....]

news just out

ASB has raised all its fixed home loan rates and has the highest rates on offer for most fixed terms

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/113224/asb-has-raised-all-its-fixed-home-loan-rates-and-has-highest-rates-offer

wow really want to slow the property market they do .... not good for NZX or nz economy. my pick is a slowdown every sector nz second half next yr

[causecelebre]

Just can't see the fed increasing interest rates in a rush. The cost of their 5 year for each 1% rate increase is around $300b pa, if I recall correctly. The US look at debt service to GDP (modern monetary theory) which looks great when rates are low, rather that debt to GDP. The fact that the US debt rolls over every five years is a now cause of angst. Why didn't they lock in 100 year T-bills? $1.2t in infrastructure spending with another $2t social welfare in the pipe? On the other hand, with Jinping now having absolute power for ever, will his lasting legacy be a re-unifying Taiwan? Will we see a wag-the-dog situation or even real conflict before the end of next year?

[Panda-NZ-]

Just can't see the fed increasing interest rates in a rush. The cost of their 5 year for each 1% rate increase is around $300b pa, if I recall correctly. The US look at debt service to GDP (modern monetary theory) which looks great when rates are low, rather that debt to GDP. The fact that the US debt rolls over every five years is a now cause of angst. Why didn't they lock in 100 year T-bills? $1.2t in infrastructure spending with another $2t social welfare in the pipe? On the other hand, with Jinping now having absolute power for ever, will his lasting legacy be a re-unifying Taiwan? Will we see a wag-the-dog situation or even real conflict before the end of next year?

The new spending bills are over 10 years. Shouldn't be marketed as trillions but only $100b per year.

Real gdp, inflation and debt are all interesting.
If GDP goes up by 5% plus inflation by 5% then debt increases may be less relevant.

[Bobdn]

JP Morgan updated their 2022 year-end price target on the S&P 500 to 4,440, which would represent a decline of 6.0% from the current price or about -5% total return.

Lucky that JP Morgan are pretty useless forecasters

had a good search - JP Morgan still has a price target of 4700 by the end of the year as far as I can see. Not sure where you got your information from but happy to be corrected (not really;)

JP Morgan's Marko Kolanovic has been of the reasons I've stayed invested and done nothing this year against all my instincts so I'd be all ears if he had changed his mind.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html last week he said:

“We expect Equities to continue to climb the ‘wall of worry’, as risks look largely priced in and showing signs of improvement,” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic said in a note Monday

[winner69]

Saw this yesterday …got it wrong they mentioned 4400 now 4440 and it was Morgan Stanley and not JP Morgan (assuming they different)


Morgan Stanley sets end-2022 S&P 500 target at 4,400
https://www.reuters.com/business/morgan-stanley-sets-end-2022-sp-500-target-4400-2021-11-15/

Can’t always believe everything on the Internet

[Bobdn]

Ok cool thanks. Yes, two different outfits of course

[winner69]

Ok cool thanks. Yes, two different outfits of course

Whose the 'better' forecaster

[Bobdn]

Who knows, it all seems like massive guess work to me. I think Bank of America had an initial forecast of the S&P being less than 4000 by the end of this year (which has since been revised lol).

I've learnt over the years that I'm the worst market timer so I just try to keep my financial assets mostly invested in shares (70 to 80 per cent). Marko Kalonvic, Tom Lee, and Ed Yardeni have helped me stick it out.

[bull....]

covid to be unleased on NZ from dec 15.
be interesting how the NZX tracks the rise of covid next yr in NZ

[dobby41]

covid to be unleased on NZ from dec 15.
be interesting how the NZX tracks the rise of covid next yr in NZ

It will be interesting indeed.
As it was interesting that when Stratford was named as having 6 cases businesses found that customers dried up for a while.
Will that happen in the rest of NZ as cases appear - until it becomes 'normal'?

[ronaldson]

Market very soft at the moment. It seems more negatives can be found than positives. Hard to be confident that can be turned around, although quite a few half/full year results to be released over the rest of this month - likely to be a mixed bag thou, witness Plexure today.

Some certainty around Auckland's circumstances now with the PM's announcements and the operationality of the Vaccine Certificates, albeit there are temporary logon issues ( I got mine no problem - off to get the paper version laminated later this afternoon ). Whether all this will relieve the current mood is hard to say, but at least many children are back at school even if part time/in bubbles.

One thought out of left field is that Auckland ratepayers can't be more than a fortnight away from receiving their new Rating Valuations. While these will already be out of date ( notionally as at 1 July ) there is nothing like a piece of paper with your name on it and a seven digit number after to help folk at least feel wealthier! A nice early Christmas present for the lucky ones!

[bull....]

yep nz very unloved market 8% down ytd , 3rd worst in the world this yr only beaten by china and brazil.
pretty close at the bottom so still time to take the wooden spoon. i cant see next yr being much better but hey who knows NZ might suddenly print another 50 billion lol

[Panda-NZ-]

Interest rates. Since the NZ economy is doing well shares are less attractive.

[allfromacell]

NZ isn't the only country facing strong inflation numbers but we're one of the only central banks with the courage to actually raise interest rates and rip the band off so to speak.

The rest of the world will be forced to follow in due time and those equity markets too will face the same challenges.

I wouldn't want to move funds out of the NZX to chase better returns overseas just to see the NZX outperform in 2022-2023 as the rest of the world faces the music. Inflation is not just transitionaty and printing money isn't a free lunch, NZ is just experiencing those realities first.

[couta1]

NZ isn't the only country facing strong inflation numbers but we're one of the only central banks with the courage to actually raise interest rates and rip the band off so to speak.

The rest of the world will be forced to follow in due time and those equity markets too will face the same challenges.

I wouldn't want to move funds out of the NZX to chase better returns overseas just to see the NZX outperform in 2022-2023 as the rest of the world faces the music. Inflation is not just transitionaty and printing money isn't a free lunch, NZ is just experiencing those realities first. Yep could be a case of jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

[value_investor]

Agreed, interesting to see how aggressive interest rate rises are or if they will gradually increase overtime. The aggressive bond buying has tapered. The next interest rate decision is in a weeks time, and we could easily see a 50 point hike at this stage. Swap rates are already pricing in a few hikes, banks have already passed on mortgage rate increases, offset by a smaller increase in term deposits.

The wheels are turning in the other direction in the nzx, looks as though valuations are coming back down without the flood of cheap money in the local markets and I'm sure a lot of investors are cashing out sizeable returns made in the past few years. If you have a long time horizon in my opinion, there will be opportunities to buy and hold and make some sizeable long term returns. However, if you're buying right now in the hopes of selling in the next 12 months at a profit, it might not be the best strategy at this point.

[bull....]

Agreed, interesting to see how aggressive interest rate rises are or if they will gradually increase overtime. The aggressive bond buying has tapered. The next interest rate decision is in a weeks time, and we could easily see a 50 point hike at this stage. Swap rates are already pricing in a few hikes, banks have already passed on mortgage rate increases, offset by a smaller increase in term deposits.

The wheels are turning in the other direction in the nzx, looks as though valuations are coming back down without the flood of cheap money in the local markets and I'm sure a lot of investors are cashing out sizeable returns made in the past few years. If you have a long time horizon in my opinion, there will be opportunities to buy and hold and make some sizeable long term returns. However, if you're buying right now in the hopes of selling in the next 12 months at a profit, it might not be the best strategy at this point.

a 50 pt hike in ocr will crush the bond proxy nzx

[bull....]

avoid these sectors like a barge pole in a rising rate environment

property stocks
retirement stocks
gentailers

most are already declining stock prices last mth or so

[Rawz]

Thought all the rich (globally) were buying property right now as a hedge against inflation.

Especially farmland. Lots and lots of farmland being bought buy the billionaires these days

[bull....]

Thought all the rich (globally) were buying property right now as a hedge against inflation.

Especially farmland. Lots and lots of farmland being bought buy the billionaires these days

big difference between owning hard assets and owning paper stocks

[Rawz]

big difference between owning hard assets and owning paper stocks

these paper stocks own hard assets? Im not being facetious, i just would have thought these retirement villages or warehouses would rise with inflation.

Just need to watch for companies with too much debt.

But companies with just the right amount of debt.. the inflation will inflate it away

[couta1]

these paper stocks own hard assets? Im not being facetious, i just would have thought these retirement villages or warehouses would rise with inflation.

Just need to watch for companies with too much debt.

But companies with just the right amount of debt.. the inflation will inflate it away Yes bit of a silly comment by bull, retirement stocks equals a whole lot of hard assets with a huge audience of need to fill them.

[value_investor]

a 50 pt hike in ocr will crush the bond proxy nzx

Priced into swap rates. Next OCR decision is on Thursday and the next one won't be likely until February now which would be almost another quarter away. 4.9% headline inflation which will probably stay steady or rise. Petrol prices and building materials in this quarter likely to drive it even higher in the Q4 reading.

[winner69]

Rbnz survey of expectations just out …business leaders etc

OCR to increase over next year …inflation 3.7% over next year …house prices 5% one year and 4% two years

No worries here

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Statistics/tables/m14/Survey-of-Expectations-quarterly-insights.pdf?revision=16779376-e353-4753-a892-5796ac0a8941

[sb9]

Priced into swap rates. Next OCR decision is on Thursday and the next one won't be likely until February now which would be almost another quarter away. 4.9% headline inflation which will probably stay steady or rise. Petrol prices and building materials in this quarter likely to drive it even higher in the Q4 reading.

I think OCR date Wed 24th Nov. Will be interesting to watch with inflation running red hot and will set the tone for 2022.

[bull....]

Yes bit of a silly comment by bull, retirement stocks equals a whole lot of hard assets with a huge audience of need to fill them.

you need to look at it from the perspective of stock prices being at all time highs. stocks are financial assets not real assets

[couta1]

you need to look at it from the perspective of stock prices being at all time highs. stocks are financial assets not real assets Many NZX companies are 20% off their all time highs (Not talking about the likes of A2) thats more than a correction %.

[bull....]

Rbnz survey of expectations just out …business leaders etc

OCR to increase over next year …inflation 3.7% over next year …house prices 5% one year and 4% two years

No worries here

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Statistics/tables/m14/Survey-of-Expectations-quarterly-insights.pdf?revision=16779376-e353-4753-a892-5796ac0a8941

futures pricing 2 hikes in by end yr now after this data

[Panda-NZ-]

US Fed meeting in 15 Dec.

The US share culling may begin slightly before or on that date.

[Panda-NZ-]

When inflation goes up it's actually just a good time to spend up large. Or take the risk higher prices next year.

[BlackPeter]

these paper stocks own hard assets? Im not being facetious, i just would have thought these retirement villages or warehouses would rise with inflation.

Just need to watch for companies with too much debt.

But companies with just the right amount of debt.. the inflation will inflate it away

Thats the way I see it:

Gentailers ... are basically quasi bonds. Their dividends have little to do with the price of real estate, but lots with the interest rates bonds are paying. If interest rates go up stock prices need to go down to make sure the dividend return is comparable to the interest rates of a bond.

Rising interest rates are bad (if you own Gen tailer shares).


REITS are similar but come with a double whammy related to interest rate rises. Obviously - the quasi bond relationship works as well as for the Gentailers above, but on top of that do you have the impact on their NTA. Rising interest rates means that it is more difficult and expensive for purchasers to get loans which ultimately will bring property prices down, which has obviously a negative impact on NTA.

Rising interest rates are really bad for REITS. Obviously - they won't kill them, but they bring the share prices down.

[Bobdn]

Investopedia has some good information here, as always. What a resource!

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091615/are-reits-beneficial-during-highinterest-era.asp

Here's an interesting short video about what did well in the inflationary 1970s. Impossible to say that history will repeat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZQ2UfT0YwU&t=64s

[Panda-NZ-]

Just when you thought the afghanistan withdrawal would lead to budget savings:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZru-_0E8bQ

Joe should have a sleepy moment and refuse to sign.
Improve on the $200b per year infrastructure instead.

[bull....]

closed my very short term nasdaq short , long gold

just goes to show shorts should be only taken for a very short time when you consider the nasdaq made new highs friday.
anyway this week historically is very positive at the end of week and day after thanksgiving for US markets only wildcard being fed appointment could upset things so lets see how it pans out.

RBNZ meeting wed
25 or 50 increase in OCR , 50 is the wildcard and cant entirely be discarded so cant see any big bets being taken on nzx ahead of this.

[couta1]

Lol check out the 6 day bar chart for the NZX50, beautiful example of a staircase.

[bull....]

Lol check out the 6 day bar chart for the NZX50, beautiful example of a staircase.

momentum of the nzx to the downside stepping up must want the wooden spoon bad for end of yr honours.
i guess really nz as investment place at the moment looking sick nzx down , property forecast to come off next yr , bond holdings hammered not many good places left nz to invest at the moment except maybe a fast food franchise?

[Panda-NZ-]

Jerome powell is interestingly a lawyer with scarcely any training in economics.

[bull....]

S&P 500 hits a record, Dow jumps 280 points after Biden sticks with Powell to lead the Fed


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/21/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html


all time highs nasdaq and sp500
trannie and rut and dji not to far behind

[nztx]

momentum of the nzx to the downside stepping up must want the wooden spoon bad for end of yr honours.
i guess really nz as investment place at the moment looking sick nzx down , property forecast to come off next yr , bond holdings hammered not many good places left nz to invest at the moment except maybe a fast food franchise?


Yeah - agree .. sort of thought a downturn was coming 3 wks to a month ago around the time one of the Economists
started singing of things on the edge .. so adjusted exposures locally accordingly

New select target exposures working out well elsewhere .. well over 40% up in just 4 weeks with more to follow

[bull....]

Yeah - agree .. sort of thought a downturn was coming 3 wks to a month ago around the time one of the Economists
started singing of things on the edge .. so adjusted exposures locally accordingly

New select target exposures working out well elsewhere .. well over 40% up in just 4 weeks with more to follow

nice , there were a few of us on this thread warning nz market looked bad for this yr at the start of the yr and off-shore was the money winner so all worked out well , although off-shore starting to look expensive esp if inflation stays persistant so im cautious on everywhere during next yr

[Panda-NZ-]

NZX will be immunised against interest rate increases hopefully after a good drop to 12k.

[bull....]

NZX will be immunised against interest rate increases hopefully after a good drop to 12k.

funny you say that i read on a site JPM were saying there current valuation for sp500 in an inflationary environment is 2500

[winner69]

S&P500 be 5000 by Christmas at this rate

[bull....]

the US markets sold of big on the powell nomination ... interesting stuff happening today

[Panda-NZ-]

Interestingly the nasdaq PE ratios don't seem too different from the past.

There have been very strong earnings to support their prices.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NDAQ/nasdaq/pe-ratio

[bull....]

nice , there were a few of us on this thread warning nz market looked bad for this yr at the start of the yr and off-shore was the money winner so all worked out well , although off-shore starting to look expensive esp if inflation stays persistant so im cautious on everywhere during next yr

RBNZ announcement yesterday .25% rise probably the market was expecting a 50 move looking at the reaction of the kiwi to the downside. getting slammed

Deputy governor Geoff Bascand said it expected about 70 per cent of mortgages to be repriced over the coming year.
The bank’s monetary policy committee said it discussed how fast interest rates needed to be increased, and explained there was “uncertainty about the resilience of consumer spending and business investment as the country adapts to living with the Covid virus in the community”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127083298/reserve-banks-ocr-move-birdbrained-and-spineless-says-top-economist

my view slow down 2nd half next yr still ... how hard yet to decide slowing property market and sour stockmarket wont help consumer spending much

[Panda-NZ-]

Slower interest rate increases may help the stock market out a bit.

[Panda-NZ-]

Introducing the Icelandverse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enMwwQy_noI

[Biscuit]

Introducing the Icelandverse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enMwwQy_noI

Really cool, they should work a bit on their avatar though.

[Bobdn]

Hey girlfriends, are we heading for an actual black Monday lol? I just noticed US futures are down and so is the NZD.

Would be nice to have a real black Monday every so often, for the threads sake.

[dabsman]

Hey girlfriends, are we heading for an actual black Monday lol? I just noticed US futures are down and so is the NZD.

Would be nice to have a real black Monday every so often, for the threads sake.

Futures down 700 as at the time of writing

[Getty]

Hey girlfriends, are we heading for an actual black Monday lol? I just noticed US futures are down and so is the NZD.

Would be nice to have a real black Monday every so often, for the threads sake.

You may get your wish.

I've made a comment on Coronavirus thread, but since then CNBC have reported how futures are reacting to new Nu virus.

Gold up $14 to $US1802.

[Panda-NZ-]

Tech seems to be the safe harbour again.

[Bobdn]

Mates, Ive got no dry powder unlike in March 2020 so if this turns into a full scale sell off, I'll be raw doggin it. Won't be pretty

[Panda-NZ-]

Add margin if you can or move into an aggressive fund post-dip.

[Bobdn]

...or just look away (as hard as that is:)

[bull....]

savage sell-off's in plenty of asset classes today.

guess people just need to remember things dont go up for ever.
even dip buying wont work at some stage

[STr]

savage sell-off's in plenty of asset classes today.

guess people just need to remember things dont go up for ever.
even dip buying wont work at some stage

Thats what I am looking for. This cannot be anything like the original C9 correction but has a bit of a feeling like some new FUD that is taking hold. I wonder how long emotion runs before people get back in. Just like “Black Monday” - second time round was nowhere near as drastic.

[couta1]

savage sell-off's in plenty of asset classes today.

guess people just need to remember things dont go up for ever.
even dip buying wont work at some stage Yawn, 2 or 3 down days and it will be back to business as usual once the punters remember that Covid and all it's variants are here to stay.

[LEMON]

Economies around the world are cracking, banks and governments won't let on, could this be the end of the peak cycle?
Recession/Depression on it's way?
One more serious event and economies won't cope, heavy inflation, ATH high markets, overloaded hospitals, lack of workers and lockdowns taking the strain, Energy crisis, winter in Europe/USA, travel bans to be implemented once more, so on so forth, not looking good and this new variant could be the final nail, does anyone have a similar worry?

[Ggcc]

Yawn, 2 or 3 down days and it will be back to business as usual once the punters remember that Covid and all it's variants are here to stay.
I feel you underestimate this one (covid). You may understand this better than me, being from the health sector, but the majority of people I know are concerned things will never return back to normal and that things will permanently change how we live. Sure I will survive, but will my parents??? That is why I get the impression their generation is spending it and fast on their bucket lists

[Biscuit]

Economies around the world are cracking, banks and governments won't let on, could this be the end of the peak cycle?
Recession/Depression on it's way?
One more serious event and economies won't cope, heavy inflation, ATH high markets, overloaded hospitals, lack of workers and lockdowns taking the strain, Energy crisis, winter in Europe/USA, travel bans to be implemented once more, so on so forth, not looking good and this new variant could be the final nail, does anyone have a similar worry?

No, everything will work out fine.

[bull....]

Yawn, 2 or 3 down days and it will be back to business as usual once the punters remember that Covid and all it's variants are here to stay.

US and european futures are looking decidely ugly for start of trading next week.
Dow showing a nearly 500pt drop to open next week at this stage and you need to remember these drops are occuring on news of a variant in other countries. what will happen when they announce a case in the US

[LEMON]

No, everything will work out fine.

I think I would have to disagree, maybe lil NZ will be okay, but economies around the world are starting to break, look at turkeys huge economy and the Lira has lost 40% of its value now adopting the Dollar, you think that won't have a knock-on effect, surrounding countries will feel the impact

[bull....]

I think I would have to disagree, maybe lil NZ will be okay, but economies around the world are starting to break, look at turkeys huge economy and the Lira has lost 40% of its value now adopting the Dollar, you think that won't have a knock-on effect, surrounding countries will feel the impact

actually i dont think NZ will be ok , property coming off the boil , share market stuffed , all those feel rich factors declining now and then we have covid about to be unleashed on the whole of NZ

[couta1]

US and european futures are looking decidely ugly for start of trading next week.
Dow showing a nearly 500pt drop to open next week at this stage and you need to remember these drops are occuring on news of a variant in other countries. what will happen when they announce a case in the US News this/news that, real news/fake news, thing is the !onger this goes on adaption improves and the old problem becomes the new normal. Markets have always gone up and down in a zig zag fashion yet they always eventually end up higher than they were before.

[Biscuit]

actually i dont think NZ will be ok , property coming off the boil , share market stuffed , all those feel rich factors declining now and then we have covid about to be unleashed on the whole of NZ

On the positive side, the heat might finally be coming off the property market, the share market seems to be functioning normally and likely the new covid variants that are emerging will be more infectious but less severe, leading to a normalisation of covid over time.

[Bobdn]

At least Tom Lee is still upbeat...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L773q7SHJEI

Also, dividends continue to be paid and reinvested in December which helps the war effort. Smartshares go ex-dividend tomorrow I see. It all helps.

[FTG]

Economies around the world are cracking, banks and governments won't let on, could this be the end of the peak cycle?
Recession/Depression on it's way?
One more serious event and economies won't cope, heavy inflation, ATH high markets, overloaded hospitals, lack of workers and lockdowns taking the strain, Energy crisis, winter in Europe/USA, travel bans to be implemented once more, so on so forth, not looking good and this new variant could be the final nail, does anyone have a similar worry?

I, like a few others, have often been humbled since the GFC. Many times thinking, "this is the time; surely the market is overdue to have a more substantial & sustained correction", only to have that thrown back in the face with the market continuing to charge on.

Intriguing yet irrational, & "unpredictable" market behaviour has been a fact of life since Adam first started trading. We should remember that "a market" is simply a collection of a whole lot of 'intriguing', irrational & "unpredictable" participants (put another way, characters on the Stage of life!). The trick is being able to read the body language of the market, as that will give us an indication to what is really happening. When it is "lying" for example, and hence we should proceed with more caution.

Learning from & reminiscing a little on the last proper & sustained "Crash" in NZ (1987), it's a reminder that, despite overwhelming facts to the contrary, sometimes we can be guilty of being so tunnel-visioned, that we ONLY see the positives in a situation. The allure of potential riches can blind us from seeing what the market 'body language' is telling us.

In '87 on the NZ Market (Barclays Index), the market had already printed an ATH a month prior to the Oct 20 crash day. It had already corrected over 5% off that high and triggered some important sell signals. What a few folk may not know/remember is that NZ's Oct 19th (our Monday), followed a sharp down day on the Dow (their Friday) - about 160 points from memory (wow crazy, not even a 1% move in today's context!). Despite this, many Kiwi's (professional traders too I might add) were still drunk from the dizzy times we had experienced in the previous 5 years. Hence totally blind to any signs that carnage was about to unfold on the Tuesday (Black Monday USA).

Coming back to today, you ask a salient question. A question that 99% of us won't truly know the answer of until well after an ATH is printed.
But........for whatever it's worth, my read of the market's body language is that the underlying health of the market is very sick. It's been on artificial life support and a cocktail of steroids for quite a while now. At some point the market participants will realise this and confidence (bravado) will evaporate (quickly or slowly, situation dependent). As a student of TA, my preference is for that confidence to evaporate more slowly. Hence giving more time & data flow to read the signs and act accordingly. However, the level of artificial support & leverage in the US market is now at unprecedented levels. All it may take is for another Black Swan event to make that confidence evaporate in an "instant".

Coincidentally, I recently opined here that 4600 on the S & P 500 is a significant level, and ~ 4750 was the next level to watch on the bull trend. Well, this week it hit an ATH of 4745, but then reversed to 4595 (with the biggest 1 day fall this year) to sit back right on the significant level. Also leaving a Bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. It seems that the market is treating those levels with some respect.

Next week MAY be telling & interesting!!

In a finishing note Lemon, regardless of your view of what the market has, is & will do, long term success in trading & investing is more assured if one has, and routinely reviews, a well considered trading/investing plan. Part of a great plan is ensuring that you have "insurances" in place. So whatever direction the market takes, whether it be a melt-up or meltdown, the overall portfolio is better protected from the "irrational" or otherwise, actions of the market.

[winner69]

If you’ve got a portfolio of investments that can have non-linear outcomes, never sell early.

You may be right most of the time, but the one time you’re wrong will cost you most of the returns.

[mike2020]

US and european futures are looking decidely ugly for start of trading next week.
Dow showing a nearly 500pt drop to open next week at this stage and you need to remember these drops are occuring on news of a variant in other countries. what will happen when they announce a case in the US
Apparently the symptoms are quite mild with the new variant. It might just be trading news yet.

[bull....]

Apparently the symptoms are quite mild with the new variant. It might just be trading news yet.

maybe with both i think you need more time to know.

lot of people on thanksgiving holiday so they will return and make there decisions next week
we will have the end of mth print as well to help with reading the tea leaves too
see how next couple of sessions on wall st go to get a better read.

[alokdhir]

'Red on the screen': How hard will Omicron hit New Zealand share market?Lister says he expects the New Zealand market to play catch-up with the international mood on Monday.
"There will be red on the screen," he says.
"Investors have had the whole weekend to follow the developments and there will be an impact as caution ramps up."
As has been the case in the past, Lister expects travel stocks and businesses dependent on travel to be hit the hardest by news this week.
He told the Herald he would be keeping a close eye on stocks like Air New Zealand, Auckland Airport, Serko and SkyCity on Monday morningLister puts this down to the fact there simply hasn't been as much optimism pumped into the market in the past year, but also because some of our biggest players aren't as sensitive to the economic impact of lockdowns and travel restrictions.
He points to the Spark, Chorus and electricity companies Mercury and Meridian as examples of businesses that should hold steady as the market digests the impact of the Omicron variant.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare could, in fact, see an increase in investment in the coming days.
"Money will move to safer stocks during this period of uncertainty," he says.

Lister says FPH will benefit from this including other defensive stocks like Electric companies etc

[Ggcc]

Tomorrow will be a down day while the market tries to process the new variant

[couta1]

Tomorrow will be a down day while the market tries to process the new variant You mean the panickers will panic and the rest will do nothing.

[nztx]

You mean the panickers will panic and the rest will do nothing.


Sounds like a deferred Covid dip to me to add to recent retreats ;)

perhaps the boys & girls will be out getting some retail therapy instead
& be too busy to notice ;)

[nztx]

'Red on the screen': How hard will Omicron hit New Zealand share market?Lister says he expects the New Zealand market to play catch-up with the international mood on Monday.
"There will be red on the screen," he says.
"Investors have had the whole weekend to follow the developments and there will be an impact as caution ramps up."
As has been the case in the past, Lister expects travel stocks and businesses dependent on travel to be hit the hardest by news this week.
He told the Herald he would be keeping a close eye on stocks like Air New Zealand, Auckland Airport, Serko and SkyCity on Monday morningLister puts this down to the fact there simply hasn't been as much optimism pumped into the market in the past year, but also because some of our biggest players aren't as sensitive to the economic impact of lockdowns and travel restrictions.
He points to the Spark, Chorus and electricity companies Mercury and Meridian as examples of businesses that should hold steady as the market digests the impact of the Omicron variant.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare could, in fact, see an increase in investment in the coming days.
"Money will move to safer stocks during this period of uncertainty," he says.

Lister says FPH will benefit from this including other defensive stocks like Electric companies etc



NZ gates conveniently left wide open .. all set for the sneaky Covid mutation to to do a few backflips again in
through the side door via indirect destinations while the tired guard dog peacefully doozes away unaware of anything ..

And Covid outsmarts our Dreaming Health Officials (yet again) while they were away indulging in their tea & cream buns..
and admiring Hipkin's uncanny ability to spin Opening everything gaffs and little else .. :)

LOCKDOWN overseas in Europe means GATES Wide open in NZ .. ;)

What planet did our Galoots overseeing this dozy exercise for keeping things out when they
feel like it (and doesn't result in a coating of egg on their faces) come from ? ;)

In no time Govt will have to resign up to the fact that they have sk&ewed up badly yet again as a wave of mutated Covid
sweeps the country .. while they're still dreaming about effectiveness of the last lot of Jabs rapidly reducing .. and if the
whole exercise needs to be repeated to charge up the defenses .. ;)

The leaky sieves (MIQ) will still continue to leak and groan as the mutation sneaks past the idle sleeping like the overly
restless couped up captives who will still carry out their missions jumping the fence .. ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

NZ gates conveniently left wide open .. all set for the sneaky Covid mutation to to do a few backflips again in
through the side door via indirect destinations while the tired guard dog peacefully doozes away unaware of anything ..

LOCKDOWN overseas in Europe means GATES Wide open in NZ .. ;)


Winter over there vs summer here.

The economy is in deep freeze in many countries over winter anyway.

[alokdhir]

When all are looking to big down day then good chance we may close positive ...Opening maybe at lowest point then slow grind up ...

[iceman]

NZ gates conveniently left wide open .. all set for the sneaky Covid mutation to to do a few backflips again in
through the side door via indirect destinations while the tired guard dog peacefully doozes away unaware of anything ..

And Covid outsmarts our Dreaming Health Officials (yet again) while they were away indulging in their tea & cream buns..
and admiring Hipkin's uncanny ability to spin Opening everything gaffs and little else .. :)

LOCKDOWN overseas in Europe means GATES Wide open in NZ .. ;)

What planet did our Galoots overseeing this dozy exercise for keeping things out when they
feel like it (and doesn't result in a coating of egg on their faces) come from ? ;)

In no time Govt will have to resign up to the fact that they have sk&ewed up badly yet again as a wave of mutated Covid
sweeps the country .. while they're still dreaming about effectiveness of the last lot of Jabs rapidly reducing .. and if the
whole exercise needs to be repeated to charge up the defenses .. ;)

The leaky sieves (MIQ) will still continue to leak and groan as the mutation sneaks past the idle sleeping like the overly
restless couped up captives who will still carry out their missions jumping the fence .. ;)

NZ's borders are far from "wide open". They're all but closed.There are no "lockdowns" of borders in Europe (only Israel has done so at this stage). Most countries at this stage have simply closed entry from foreign nationals coming from a few countries in Southern Africa and own citizens/residents have to do tests and maybe a few days of home quarantine !!

[BlackPeter]

You mean the panickers will panic and the rest will do nothing.

Might be a good time to watch and buy when the selling pressure eases ... only question is - will it be a one day drop, a three day drop or will it take the better part of 2 weeks?

What do people recon?

Lets not forget - the Christmas rally must be just around the corner.

[BlackPeter]

NZ gates conveniently left wide open .. all set for the sneaky Covid mutation to to do a few backflips again in
through the side door via indirect destinations while the tired guard dog peacefully doozes away unaware of anything ..

And Covid outsmarts our Dreaming Health Officials (yet again) while they were away indulging in their tea & cream buns..
and admiring Hipkin's uncanny ability to spin Opening everything gaffs and little else .. :)

LOCKDOWN overseas in Europe means GATES Wide open in NZ .. ;)

What planet did our Galoots overseeing this dozy exercise for keeping things out when they
feel like it (and doesn't result in a coating of egg on their faces) come from ? ;)

In no time Govt will have to resign up to the fact that they have sk&ewed up badly yet again as a wave of mutated Covid
sweeps the country .. while they're still dreaming about effectiveness of the last lot of Jabs rapidly reducing .. and if the
whole exercise needs to be repeated to charge up the defenses .. ;)

The leaky sieves (MIQ) will still continue to leak and groan as the mutation sneaks past the idle sleeping like the overly
restless couped up captives who will still carry out their missions jumping the fence .. ;)

From memory - Delta didn't come through MIQ, it is just part of the rubbish our Ossie neighbors like to put out of the door ... and given that we love nothing more than to accept Ossie trash we didn't asked the virus to quarantine ... Not MIQ's fault, isn't it?

While our MIQ system is far from ideal and severely constraining our freedoms, to call it "open doors" is plainly wrong.

[bull....]

black friday sales were a fizzer in the us this yr

up on 2020 but well down on 2019 as people chose not to go to malls etc

[Jerry]

Last time (Feb 2020) the market expected Retirement Homes to be badly hit, so ARV, OCA, SUM etc went down; along with SPK, CNU, ERD and SKL according to my records. In the last month, SPK and OCA went down, more to do with interest rates than anything else. ERD has gone down a bit - probably the dollar and interim report - and MCY. So I'd say very little has yet happened on our market due to the new Covid. This is a one-eyed view of the shares I follow - long since lost interest in tourism.
This time we have more experience of which industries might be affected. Not convinced I'll do any better, though.

[couta1]

Tomorrow will be a down day while the market tries to process the new variant Omicron the decepticon has been processed and sent packing from Wall St by the looks.

[jimdog31]

Omicron the decepticon has been processed and sent packing from Wall St by the looks.

You called it couts.

[BlackPeter]

Might be a good time to watch and buy when the selling pressure eases ... only question is - will it be a one day drop, a three day drop or will it take the better part of 2 weeks?

What do people recon?

Lets not forget - the Christmas rally must be just around the corner.

OK - so it was option 1 ... quite short sale period and the specials already sold out after a day :t_down: ;

[alokdhir]

OK - so it was option 1 ... quite short sale period and the specials already sold out after a day :t_down: ;

I will not be very sure of that ...the way Crude bounce petered out and so did European stocks ...seems another leg down possible ...need wait and watch more ...lets c if tomorrow follow thru of this bounce happens ...I am doubtful

[bottomfeeder]

I will not be very sure of that ...the way Crude bounce petered out and so did European stocks ...seems another leg down possible ...need wait and watch more ...lets c if tomorrow follow thru of this bounce happens ...I am doubtful
Omicron more than likely is more transmissible, but a hell of a lot less severe. Governments will encourage the spread, and everyone will then have natural immunity to all forms of Covid. Then see how the markets react. Aahhhhh.

[Bobdn]

"Printer is Coming"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-chair-powell-swings-dovish-blames-omicron-uncertainty

Hopefully the RBNZ will tread carefully and even reverse the recent tightening. You know, just to be on the safe side.

[Biscuit]

"Printer is Coming"

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-chair-powell-swings-dovish-blames-omicron-uncertainty

Hopefully the RBNZ will tread carefully and even reverse the recent tightening. You know, just to be on the safe side.

Its not like settings are in anyway "tight" at the moment and it is in no ones interest for inflation to get out of control. Hopefully RBNZ will get on with its job of properly managing monetary policy to control inflation.

[mikelee]

happy to see OCR go above 1.5% my money needs to work harder than me for a change ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

Futures back to negative.

Yesterdays increase was bizarre given that both interest rates are increasing and further mutations are likely to come (even if there isn't a lockdown).

[alokdhir]

Moderna chief predicts existing vaccines will struggle with OmicronStéphane Bancel foresees ‘material drop’ in current jabs’ effectiveness, sending stocks and oil prices lower

[ratkin]

Moderna chief predicts existing vaccines will struggle with Omicron

Stéphane Bancel foresees ‘material drop’ in current jabs’ effectiveness, sending stocks and oil prices lower

People like him/her should shut the **** up tbh
Market manipulation at its finest.

On the one hand they say it is too early to speculate, then they come up with crap like the above. If he does not know he/she should just keep quiet

[couta1]

People like him/her should shut the **** up tbh
Market manipulation at its finest.

On the one hand they say it is too early to speculate, then they come up with crap like the above. If he does not know he/she should just keep quiet Agree, see my comment about this on the Coronavirus thread.

[Panda-NZ-]

Satya Nadella selling his M$ shares.

[bull....]

maybe with both i think you need more time to know.

lot of people on thanksgiving holiday so they will return and make there decisions next week
we will have the end of mth print as well to help with reading the tea leaves too
see how next couple of sessions on wall st go to get a better read.

as we thought need more time to see how this play.s out

[bull....]

heres the two main news events causing market weakness

Financial markets fell sharply on Tuesday after the head of drugmaker Moderna said existing COVID-19 vaccines would be less effective against the new Omicron variant

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hong-kong-expands-travel-curbs-omicron-fears-australia-reports-5-cases-2021-11-30/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=The%20Reuters%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=30-11-21&utm_campaign=30-11-21 (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hong-kong-expands-travel-curbs-omicron-fears-australia-reports-5-cases-2021-11-30/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=The%20Reuters%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=30-11-21&utm_campaign=30-11-21)


Major averages dropped to their session lows after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/powell-says-fed-will-discuss-speeding-up-bond-buying-taper-at-december-meeting.html) the central bank will discuss speeding up the bond-buying taper at its December meeting

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/29/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

might have to review my santa rally view , maybe oct was it ? might be a more volatile dec now and a uncertain 2022 for markets

[alokdhir]

People like him/her should shut the **** up tbh
Market manipulation at its finest.

On the one hand they say it is too early to speculate, then they come up with crap like the above. If he does not know he/she should just keep quiet

Actually he had the courage to speak what he thought to be perfectly logical thing ...He is quoting his top scientists about what is most likely case ...as MRNA Vaccines target spike proteins so any substantial mutation there will most likely reduce there efficacy ...how much will be determined in labs but experts after seeing the new mutation can safely assume it will be substantial

[couta1]

Actually he had the courage to speak what he thought to be perfectly logical thing ...He is quoting his top scientists about what is most likely case ...as MRNA Vaccines target spike proteins so any substantial mutation there will most likely reduce there efficacy ...how much will be determined in labs but experts after seeing the new mutation can safely assume it will be substantial Big Pharma equals big corruption especially in the good old USA, do your research.

[Bobdn]

Tom's on the phone...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7iCnbkqcmw

I'm getting crushed at the moment "lol". I did sell 25 per cent of my oil ETFs a few weeks back in the Happy Times but the other 75 per cent is not doing so wel "lol"

On the bright side, the Tuis are back in my garden and loving my Tui feeder. My sugar water tui feeder brings the birds to the yard...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AwXKJoKJz4

[Ferg]

We are starting to see some wild daily gyrations in the US markets. The volatility index of the S&P500 was in a downtrend from March 2020, but has undergone a small spike lately:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-VIX/

Change the view to 5 years or max to get a wider view. Chartists will likely see it has crossed any number of moving averages. Hard to say if it is just a blip or something else like normal ebbs and flows.

[Ferg]

dupliacte deleted

[winner69]

Jerome wants to retire the word ‘transitory’ …must be getting a bit worried about inflation

[bull....]

We are starting to see some wild daily gyrations in the US markets. The volatility index of the S&P500 was in a downtrend from March 2020, but has undergone a small spike lately:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-VIX/

Change the view to 5 years or max to get a wider view. Chartists will likely see it has crossed any number of moving averages. Hard to say if it is just a blip or something else like normal ebbs and flows.

retail traders are a bigger force in the market now and are pre dominantly using options ( cause there cheaper to get exposure to single name stocks in the US and this can be both calls and puts) so the vix is not working as well as it did in the past because of this skew

[Getty]

Tom's on the phone...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7iCnbkqcmw

On the bright side, the Tuis are back in my garden and loving my Tui feeder. My sugar water tui feeder brings the birds to the yard...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AwXKJoKJz4

Quite a few blokes around here on that Tui sugar water.

Some even think its medicinal.

Yeah right!

[Nor]

Most of the over the counter remedies I purchase from pharmacies are useless anyway.

[bull....]

U.S. confirms nation’s first case of omicron Covid variant in California
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/01/us-confirms-nations-first-case-of-omicron-covid-variant-in-california.html

there goes the rally

[couta1]

U.S. confirms nation’s first case of omicron Covid variant in California


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/01/us-confirms-nations-first-case-of-omicron-covid-variant-in-california.html

there goes the rally No worries, Wall St Strategists see more gains in 2022, 7.5% so all good, Omicron will be a fizzer literally.

[bull....]

No worries, Wall St Strategists see more gains in 2022, 7.5% so all good, Omicron will be a fizzer literally.

greed is good eh never mind the facts that by almost every valuation metric the market is the most over valued in history lol

[alokdhir]

First confirmed case in US bring Dow down 550 points with Crude turning negative ...Out of the 3 important things about Omicron ...two can be inferred pretty surely

First its more contagious then Delta ....Second vaccines will have substantially lower efficacy ...

Most important part left is that will it be MILDER then Delta in sickness ?? Next few days ...maybe 10 or so will confirm all 3

South Africa ....Monday 2250 cases ....Tuesday 4450. ....Wednesday ...8600 cases ....Will take time to know if hospitalisations rising or not ...most likely it will do similar things as other variants as it attacks respiratory system ...but our only hope left is that its less potent then Delta in making people sick .

[Greekwatchdog]

South Africa ....Monday 2250 cases ....Tuesday 4450. ....Wednesday ...8600 cases ....Will take time to know if hospitalisations rising or not ...most likely it will do similar things as other variants as it attacks respiratory system ...but our only hope left is that its less potent then Delta in making people sick .

And whats the vaccination rate in South Africa and Africa in general? I heard 10%

[Sideshow Bob]

And whats the vaccination rate in South Africa and Africa in general? I heard 10%

According to this 24.11% fully vaxxed, 4.64% partly vaxxed.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations)

[nizzy]

South Africa ....Monday 2250 cases ....Tuesday 4450. ....Wednesday ...8600 cases ....Will take time to know if hospitalisations rising or not ...most likely it will do similar things as other variants as it attacks respiratory system ...but our only hope left is that its less potent then Delta in making people sick .

And whats the vaccination rate in South Africa and Africa in general? I heard 10% The wealthy West shoots itself in the foot by not stepping up and supporting (paying for) a major vaccination programme for those countries that simply can't afford it. We're not over this pandemic until we're all vacced, where ever we live, rich or poor.

[Sideshow Bob]

The wealthy West shoots itself in the foot by not stepping up and supporting (paying for) a major vaccination programme for those countries that simply can't afford it. We're not over this pandemic until we're all vacced, where ever we live, rich or poor.

Especially from what I understand, any mutations/variants of Covid are likely to come more from unvaxxed populations.

The more mutations, the longer this is going to go on for.....

[alokdhir]

South Africa ....Monday 2250 cases ....Tuesday 4450. ....Wednesday ...8600 cases ....Will take time to know if hospitalisations rising or not ...most likely it will do similar things as other variants as it attacks respiratory system ...but our only hope left is that its less potent then Delta in making people sick .

And whats the vaccination rate in South Africa and Africa in general? I heard 10%

At this moment its not the question of vaccination rate ...as after 3rd Delta wave ...infections were petering out on its own accord ...now with this new variant they have again started picking up ...change in trend is of the essence here .

Reason why countries are so worried about this ...as they cannot afford another wave and then another round of vaccinations specific to this variant and then so on

Thats whats spooking markets ...loss of hope of normalcy soon .

[bull....]

yea slow growth and high inflation :scared: crash crash crash

[Bobdn]

I see the NZD has taken a major dump in it's pants over the last day. It's seeping out and running down the inside of its leg. Everyone can see it. Embarrassing 😬

I don't know what this means at this stage but I can't look away. I guess it could add to our imported inflation. But that's a good thing right? We've been told for years that we need inflation. Wouldn't it be great to hit 7 per cent inflation this quarter!!

[percy]

I see the NZD has taken a major dump in it's pants over the last day. It's seeping out and running down the inside of its leg. Everyone can see it. Embarrassing ��

I don't know what this means at this stage but I can't look away. I guess it could add to our imported inflation. But that's a good thing right? We've been told for years that we need inflation. Wouldn't it be great to hit 7 per cent inflation this quarter!!

Most probably caused by Simon Bridges being appointed National's finance spokesman...[lol]
Drop in the NZ $ will be welcome by the export sector.
I note Silver Fern Farms share price on USX hit an all time high today.

[Panda-NZ-]

Most probably caused by Simon Bridges being appointed National's finance spokesman...[lol]
Drop in the NZ $ will be welcome by the export sector.
I note Silver Fern Farms share price on USX hit an all time high today.

FPH is golden... or should be if the market was 'rational'.

[bull....]

might have to review my santa rally view , maybe oct was it ? might be a more volatile dec now and a uncertain 2022 for markets


well dec started off as we thought , volatile and little sleep for we traders. lots of risk events this mth for sure.

speaking of crashes bitcoin etc being slammed , didnt it used to be the go to place when things got risky :scared:

[Panda-NZ-]

If inflation is truly transitory then tech will recover I think.

Depends on the supply chain which depends on corona.

[winner69]

If inflation is truly transitory then tech will recover I think.

Depends on the supply chain which depends on corona.

Jerome goingvtonretire the word transitory so j flatiron can’t be transitory after all

[bullfrog]

13292

CNN's Fear and Greed speedo

[BlackPeter]

13292

CNN's Fear and Greed speedo

Be greedy when others are fearful? Well, that's what Buffet said anyway ...

[Biscuit]

13292

CNN's Fear and Greed speedo

I think we are sitting somewhere in the middle fluctuating between fear and greed. We are a long way from extreme fear. That's when you don't sleep at night and wish you had sold out weeks ago rather than holding for the never-ending white-knuckle ride you seem to be trapped on.

[ratkin]

I think we are sitting somewhere in the middle fluctuating between fear and greed. We are a long way from extreme fear. That's when you don't sleep at night and wish you had sold out weeks ago rather than holding for the never-ending white-knuckle ride you seem to be trapped on.

The only fear people have today is the fear of missing the santa rally.

[Crypto Crude]

well dec started off as we thought , volatile and little sleep for we traders. lots of risk events this mth for sure.

speaking of crashes bitcoin etc being slammed , didnt it used to be the go to place when things got risky :scared:

Loving the volatility....
Gearimg up for an epic rally
:cool:cc

[bull....]

Loving the volatility....
Gearimg up for an epic rally
:cool:cc

yep huge swings , good money if you catch the waves. should continue inflation figures this week and the biggie powell next week who will determine if dec mth is good or not

[nztx]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-08/evergrande-default-debt-developers-china/100682242


Evergrande likely in default as debt deadline passes without payment


Failure by Evergrande to make $US82.5 million ($116 million) in interest payments due last month would trigger cross-default on its roughly $US19 billion of international bonds and put the developer at risk of becoming China's biggest defaulter.


And a second Chinese Developer in trouble - KAISA :



Adding to the crisis in China's once-bubbling property market, smaller developer Kaisa Group Holdings was also unlikely to meet its $US400 million offshore debt deadline on Tuesday, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Non-payment by Kaisa would push China's largest issuer of offshore debt among developers after Evergrande into technical default, triggering cross defaults on its offshore bonds totalling nearly $US12 billion.

[winner69]

Very technical but sounds ominious -

SPX futures with DeMark Sequential sell Countdown 13 performing as we have been expecting. Now awaiting a price flip over the coming days. Potential downside wave 3 Price objective of 4383 if the downside wave 1 at 4500 is broken to downside.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-08/evergrande-default-debt-developers-china/100682242


Evergrande likely in default as debt deadline passes without payment




And a second Chinese Developer in trouble - KAISA :

Not sure why everyone is worried about junk bonds defaulting. This is why they were classed as junk bonds. This isn’t gong to cause a domino effect as global institutions are not exposed to junk bond defaults. It’s mostly dumb retail that failed to grasp the risk involved.

[mcdongle]

Yep if you are in an international bond fund do some research into what they hold

[FTG]

Not sure why everyone is worried about junk bonds defaulting. This is why they were classed as junk bonds. This isn’t gong to cause a domino effect as global institutions are not exposed to junk bond defaults. It’s mostly dumb retail that failed to grasp the risk involved.

It is a little disconcerting that there remains a clear mismatch/disconnect in global markets in regards to pricing of risk. Unfortunately history shows us that most participants either ignore or fail to recognise this until well after the horse has bolted. Moreover, institutional participants have been (and sadly will be again) just as guilty of this sin as anyone else.

Junk Bonds have arguably been significantly mispriced for a long time, with the yields not being anywhere near commensurate to the level of risk. A case in point; Over 75% of US junk bonds are now yielding LESS than the official annual rate of inflation.

Whenever the "music stops", and default stats rapidly escalate, the entire Bond market, regardless of quality, (including MBS, Municipal, Corporate etc) can rapidly be put under immense pressure. From there we can then observe participants start shooting and then ask questions about who is holding the "time bombs".

A contagion effect is a very real threat in the event of just one or two bigger players (who have been aided & abetted by institutions I may add) going down.

However, there is one myth that certainly seems to still get oxygen, for now.

"They are too big to let fail".

[Bobdn]

Lol I just finished watching Closing Bell on CNBC on my Skybox. I treat it like a sports match so don't know what markets are doing going into it. Spoiler Alert....

...S&P has closed at a new record high.

Wow just 😲😳. WTF happened to the mini meltdown a few days ago. And oil is back.

Monster (in relation to my modest means) dirty old oil dividends coming my way this month. There will be Dividends!!! (Oil movie reference)

[NeverQuestion]

Evergrande just defaulted on 80 odd million in foreign debt repayments. China has made the statement they will prioritise home owners over investors.. Easy thing to say when majority taking the hit will be foreigners.. But the wider implacation on that is foreigners will pull all their money out of China.. So yay?

Evergrande is 800 million in debt. If this is another financial crisis then I'm picking that the true effects of this is a year out.

Are the cards starting to fall?

[Balance]

Evergrande just defaulted on 80 odd million in foreign debt repayments. China has made the statement they will prioritise home owners over investors.. Easy thing to say when majority taking the hit will be foreigners.. But the wider implacation on that is foreigners will pull all their money out of China.. So yay?

Evergrande is 800 million in debt. If this is another financial crisis then I'm picking that the true effects of this is a year out.

Are the cards starting to fall?

China’s GDP is 71 times larger than NZ.

So Evergrande’s debts while humongous at US$300 billion are in NZ terms, US$4.22 billion equivalent.

Will US$4.22 billion debt default sink the NZ economy? Don’t think so unless there is contagion. So watch out for that with Evergrande.

Plus China sits on a cushion of several trillion dollars of reserves vs NZ with net overseas debts.

Plus, Lehman Brothers collapsed with US$600 billion of debts to put some perspective on Evergrande’s IS$300 billion debts.

[Balance]

China’s GDP is 71 times larger than NZ.

So Evergrande’s debts while humongous at US$300 billion are in NZ terms, US$4.22 billion equivalent.

Will US$4.22 billion debt default sink the NZ economy? Don’t think so unless there is contagion. So watch out for that with Evergrande.

Plus China sits on a cushion of several trillion dollars of reserves vs NZ with net overseas debts.

Plus, Lehman Brothers collapsed with US$600 billion of debts to put some perspective on Evergrande’s IS$300 billion debts.

And it is critical to note the following:

1. The GFC in 2008 was as a consequence of the collapse of & default on the US subprime mortgages. Basically, mortgages not worth the paper they were written on as mortgagees can walk away in the States from their non-recourse mortgages. The amount of subprime mortgages outstanding in 2007 was estimated $1.3 trillion. ref : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis

2. US GDP in 2008 was $14.71 trillion. Coincidentally, China's GDP in 2020 was $14.72 trillion.

When the Evergrande debt of $300 billion is measured against GDP (2%), it is small relative to just how big the subprime mortgages were to the US GDP (8.8%) in 2008.

Risk is contagion so that will have to be monitored very carefully.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Contagion is a real risk and quite minor things can set off a fast chain reaction. Highly recommend reading John Mauldin's take on the economic sand pile:

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/ubiquity-complexity-and-sandpiles