Black Monday

[kiora]

Very interesting article by Colin Nicholson on corrections in a bull market


http://www.bwts.com.au/download/educational-articles/Corrections%20in%20Bull%20Markets.pdf (http://www.bwts.com.au/download/educational-articles/Corrections%20in%20Bull%20Markets.pdf)

Thanks Ratkin.Well written article and very useful thanks

[skid]

LOL. Did you know that the IRD actually is more likely to deny trader status to people than be chasing them for income taxes? Thats because more people lose money and try to claim the losses, than make money in amounts worth chasing up and auditing.

I think I have maybe done 2 trades with the primary intention of selling and not being a long term holder - XRO and FSF.

Most of the buy/sells on my trade sheet are sold at a (small) loss. I keep the ones that are making me money :-) And sell them only to preserve capital in the face of a declining market or share price.

Cmon KW...lets not forget Oz forex:)

[Hoop]

Very interesting article by Colin Nicholson on corrections in a bull market


http://www.bwts.com.au/download/educational-articles/Corrections%20in%20Bull%20Markets.pdf (http://www.bwts.com.au/download/educational-articles/Corrections%20in%20Bull%20Markets.pdf)

Yep a good article as he has a good investment plan..however he gives back too much money to Mr Market for my likening, nowadays trigger signals are more sophisticated...but..each to their own..

Question:...The bull market cycle has been running for 6.5 years...2.75 years longer than the Average Bull...so why does nearly everyone assume this is just another bull market correction and say don't worry don't sell as you will regret it???
Question: what is there to regret when you have the power to sell and then buy back in?...brokeage fees are cheap nowadays
Question: what does a "always hold during corrections" investor do when the index loses -21% sell or hold? or -22%?
Question: What does a "always hold during corrections" investor do when the index correction is -15% and a couple of their portfolio stocks have feared worse.. say dropping -30%?.
Question: Do you really want to stay in an average -15% correction watching your capital shrink, induring disapointment after disappointment, fear of the "what ifs", stress, worry..and relying on "Hope" as an investment strategy?
All the above questions have answers that are neither right or wrong thereby creating investor dilemma...Investor dilemma destroys investor confidence.

Me personally..As a chartist I don't care which way the market goes..bull or bear it makes no difference to me..If my stock creates a sell signal during the red times as it is atm its a compulsory sell...easy!!!..Strict TAers don't suffer from many dilemma problems. I sometime have dilemma problems and it's totally self-inflicted (breaking the discipline rules)

[kiora]

OFX was a long term hold, except the company kept screwing things up. Walked away with a 5% loss so no damage. Still waiting to re-enter :D Sometimes you need to be reminded that a great company with a great product does not always make a great investment :mad ;:

Yep needs good management as well eh :)

[NZSilver]

keep calm and keep cashing up, i'm taking a few 5% losses too. Better than 25% losses possible in a few months. ASX all ords looking very sick, NZX not so bad.

[skid]

OFX was a long term hold, except the company kept screwing things up. Walked away with a 5% loss so no damage. Still waiting to re-enter :D Sometimes you need to be reminded that a great company with a great product does not always make a great investment :mad ;:

I thought you bought and sold about the time wespac ditched them (maybe Ive got my shares wrong or could be having a senior moment:)

[skid]

Looks like china is getting whacked again and the Dow pre market is not looking great

[Daytr]

I'm thinking this is an opportunity to buy, particularly markets that aren't as over valued like the Kiwi & Aussie markets.
Technically they are on the cusp of breaking lower, but they haven't yet or haven't confirmed the move yet.
China I am sure is propping up their market & that should assist other indices around the world as well.
I'm not hugely bullish, but I think this is perhaps just the bottom of the present range trade & trading it as such.

[NZSilver]

This might help the break - lower that is... I see more red on the horizon, this out of China this morning...

THE Caixin flash China general manufacturing PMI plunged to 78-month low at 47.0 in September from 47.3 in August, a preliminary Caixin survey showed on Wednesday.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below that represents contraction.

The sub-index on manufacturing output retreated to a 78-month low of 45.7 in September from 46.4 in August, according to the survey from Caixin Media Co., Ltd.

"The decline indicates the nation's manufacturing industry has reached a crucial stage in the structural transformation process. Overall, the fundamentals are good," said Dr. He Fan, chief economist at Caixin Insight Group.

He pointed out that weakening factory activity is tied to previous changes in factors related to external demand and prices.

The flash index is published on a monthly basis ahead of final PMI data, making it the earliest available indicator of manufacturing conditions in China.

The estimate is based on approximately 85 to 90 percent of total PMI survey responses from over 420 manufacturing companies each month and is designed to provide an indication of the final PMI.

The final PMI for September will be released on October 1.

[xafalcon]

Yes, this was primarily what the Asian markets including NZ reacted to today

Keep in mind that China is a controlled economy. The govt is likely to throw more stimulus at it to stoke the fire a bit more, if it believes growth is below their target 7% (ish). I read a good article on CNBC about it today

[Snow Leopard]

Head note: DTV = [averaged] daily traded value.

After quite a few thin days today we have

Six companies which have set new 12 month high closing prices today:

CVT - Comvita
NZR - New Zealand Refining
PAY - Pushpay (poor DTV)
THL - Tourism Holdings
TIL - Trilogy International
ZEL - Z Energy

In addition I have 9 companies in the green zone on both price and DTV:
ATM, COA, EBO, FPH, FSF, GNE, HBY, SCL, VHP

and ABA & HLG which are green on price but yellow (reasonable: $80K -> $160K per day) DTV

Looks like there is still some money being made - but DYOR and be especially careful in these interesting times.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Discs:
Own some but not all of the above mentioned shares :);

Also own some but not all of the rest of the shares on the NZX :mellow:;

This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or make disparaging comments on anything ;);

Start new medicines tomorrow :huh:

[Daytr]

Markets bouncing back, DOW futures now 130 pts off today's lows.
Aussie market bouncing as well.
That's exactly right xafalcon & since the G20 I think Beijing has been supporting the market higher.

[banter]

After quite a few thin days today we have

Six companies which have set new 12 month high closing prices today:

CVT - Comvita
NZR - New Zealand Refining
PAY - Pushpay (poor DTV)
THL - Tourism Holdings
TIL - Trilogy International
ZEL - Z Energy

In addition I have 9 companies in the green zone on both price and DTV:
ATM, COA, EBO, FPH, FSF, GNE, HBY, SCL, VHP

and ABA & HLG which are green on price but yellow (reasonable: $80K -> $160K per day) DTV


I track about 68 companies - NZ50 and fringe, using a similar colour scheme.

25 - about 40% - are within 2.5% of their 30 day highs - or better.

7616.
- M30, M60, M90, M500 - refers to 30,60,90, and 500 day highs.
- Orange shade = within 2.5% of the high for that period
- Yellow shade, green text and underlined = at a high for that period
- Red text = more than 15% lower than the high for that period

Some NZ shares and likely some NZ share investors are doing well right now.

[kiora]

I track about 68 companies - NZ50 and fringe, using a similar colour scheme.

25 - about 40% - are within 2.5% of their 30 day highs - or better.

7616.
- M30, M60, M90, M500 - refers to 30,60,90, and 500 day highs.
- Orange shade = within 2.5% of the high for that period
- Yellow shade, green text and underlined = at a high for that period
- Red text = more than 15% lower than the high for that period

Some NZ shares and likely some NZ share investors are doing well right now.

Most likely due to interest rates likely to fall further in NZ,unprecedented low rates.Will make TD even less atractive

[Daytr]

Both Kiwi & Aussie down with the Aussie in particular thumped.
Great for exporters & the Aussie miners who have maintained an Aussie exposure.

[skid]

Ya gotta laugh---Watching an interview (markets slightly down but in a holding pattern) Talking about across the globe how manufacturing and revenue are down,disappointing results from most countries,(you know ,those things that make an economy work)but most are more concerned with whether Janet Yellen is going to pretend that she may raise interest rates sometime this year

[skid]

Most likely due to interest rates likely to fall further in NZ,unprecedented low rates.Will make TD even less atractive

unless overseas money comes in to take advantage of higher interest ,because in their country interest rates are as good as zero--(its not happening yet because most are still in ''safe harbor'' mode in terms of currency because things are looking so dangerous out there.)

But the fact remains that the NZX is in many ways swimming against the current compared with other markets and holding up so far

[kiora]

unless overseas money comes in to take advantage of higher interest ,because in their country interest rates are as good as zero--(its not happening yet because most are still in ''safe harbor'' mode in terms of currency because things are looking so dangerous out there.)

But the fact remains that the NZX is in many ways swimming against the current compared with other markets and holding up so far

Which would drop interest rates further skid ?

[skid]

Which would drop interest rates further skid ?

Sorry -late night last night--was thinking of the Kiwi dollar which would rise--nevertheless,those TDs would still be attractive if the market in general was continuing its slide--(most would think twice buying into a market thats tanking-but if the NZ market and economy stay above water or rise(like the example given),then no reason to cut interest rates--guess it depends on whats ahead.--(they certainly did jump the gun on interest rate increases)

I think the ''gotta put my dosh somewhere with better return'' works when things are cruising --not so well when there is fear.--When scary things are happening (even overseas) investors start to think of safety over
returns

[easy money]

Dow getting near to 16000 again..this is not looking good at all.

[couta1]

Dow getting near to 16000 again..this is not looking good at all.
Blame Caterpillar for the Dow decline.

[Nasi Goreng]

Well does anyone recall during the Greek crisis, the DAX was bouncing between 10700 - 11500. Its now trading at 9400. I really can't see things getting much worse in Europe and if stocks start to recover there, I would expect US stocks to recover also.

I think the next few weeks will be volatile, but the next Quarters earnings will start to be reported in a few weeks and they may help to halt this recent pull back.

[Baa_Baa]

"Beware the Bear" .. says Colin Twiggs. http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/trading_diary.php

[skid]

Are you optimistic about next quarters earnings?--Things have been pretty volatile lately --We are addicted to sensationalism by the media-but by far the worse scenario is a slow but consistent (with of course variations along the way) downturn in the markets.
Alot of ''just a little bit lower'' start to really hurt. At some point you realize you are a boiled frog.
Caterpillar is a mega large company and the main reason for its decline is China.
More and more countries are going to start to fell that bite if indeed the possibilities we are starting to suspect really do play out.
Those running one of the world leading economies really have no track record in how to manage this sort of thing,so the juries out on that.
the emerging countries will be the first to really get into trouble-(remember when Greece was our biggest worry?)--there are some new ones on the list now--Had a good look at Brazil lately(debt)
The talk seems to have changed from ''Im gonna make a fortune on the potential growth co.'' to Dividends (and thats a step in the right direction)--If your gonna play this game,it better be with caution at this stage---Our new potential economic leader has stumbled. IMO-DYOR

[xafalcon]

I have been doing some off the wall thinking

Since the GFC, developed economies around the world are consistently failing to follow "proven" economic models dating back 40+ years

The surrounding economic conditions are certainly very atypical - very low global interest rates, very low global inflation (except for a few hot-spots like Russia), various treasuries printing mountains of cash or just finished doing so, commodity prices almost universally depressed to multi-year lows

So should we still expect global sharemarkets to behave the same way they did pre-GFC? ie. will models of the past actually work in the current environment?

This uncertainty may go some way to explaining the diverging views of how this market will play-out

[BlackPeter]

I have been doing some off the wall thinking

Since the GFC, developed economies around the world are consistently failing to follow "proven" economic models dating back 40+ years

The surrounding economic conditions are certainly very atypical - very low global interest rates, very low global inflation (except for a few hot-spots like Russia), various treasuries printing mountains of cash or just finished doing so, commodity prices almost universally depressed to multi-year lows

So should we still expect global sharemarkets to behave the same way they did pre-GFC? ie. will models of the past actually work in the current environment?

This uncertainty may go some way to explaining the diverging views of how this market will play-out

Nothing "off the wall" about that thinking. I guess even the most backward thinking analyst is by now aware that we are in uncharted territory and that the so far prevailing stock cycles do not work anymore. This makes obviously a fertile breeding ground for nutters and doomsday prophets.

The only model we could look at how long term low interest rates combined with low growth rates might work out is Japan, and this is not a very flash example, though it was not the big doomsday scenario either (Japan going for 20 years or so sidewards with a mild downtrend).

So - yes, you are right ... the established patterns don't apply anymore, the previously reasonably effective control of the Feds (interest up when times are good and interest down when they are bad) don't work anymore due to the Fed's under-steering ... and so the vehicle of the world's economy is currently sliding off the road.

Nobody really knows where we will end up this time. We just might end up undamaged in a nice meadow and drive back onto the road, or we might crash against a tree. On the positive side ... humans are sort of used to be in uncharted areas ... and the best achievements typically come when we explore them - i.e. it is probably a fair assumption that we will get out of this mess and upwards again, but we don't know when and how.

Whatever it is, it is always sensible not to panic - and particularly as long as interest rates are low would I think that good stocks with sound PE's will stay in demand. I don't know what the stock markets will make next week or next month, but I do know that good companies providing services and products people need will win long term over other investments.

[skid]

-Its been ''short term fix ''at the expense of the economy in general(in terms of its underlying health-debt,etc)
They may be able to postpone for longer with a QE4 or something but the end result will be the same or worse,unless the basics are fixed.


China has created the perfect bubble--the new middle class certainly didnt see it coming with the share market and all the excess real estate created--the rest of the world (especially certain countries)have lapped it up with all that demand for commodities from China-(fueled by all that easy money greed)-but now that has slowed and some new emotions ,doubt and fear have crept in.

Japan was not doomsday as it was only one country,but many,especially property owners were horribly affected(many wiped out)

Im sure the Japan situation would be more than enough for most to deal with-

It may be worth looking into just what companies and what services survived Japan-and the other actual crashes(besides the obvious cash in hand)

Ie. Pic your favorite stock, and look at the 10 year (or longer, chart)

[Bjauck]

-
Japan was not doomsday as it was only one country,but many,especially property owners were horribly affected(many wiped out)

Im sure the Japan situation would be more than enough for most to deal with-

It may be worth looking into just what companies and what services survived Japan-and the other actual crashes(besides the obvious cash in hand)

Ie. Pic your favorite stock, and look at the 10 year (or longer, chart) In NZ residential property prices have been pretty resilient in downturns. For example there was a dip in house prices during the GFC but nothing like what occurred with share prices. Much of the resilience would be because of NZ's tax policies...favoured treatment of owner-occupied housing, lack of capital gains, easy ability to leverage investor housing in conjunction with negative gearing meaning that investors in NZ can off-set losses against other income sources (including salaries). I do not know how Japan treats investor housing or housing in general but the Japanese experience (and American for that matter) may not be relevant in the current NZ investment and tax regime which favours investment in housing.

[cloggs]

Well does anyone recall during the Greek crisis, the DAX was bouncing between 10700 - 11500. Its now trading at 9400. I really can't see things getting much worse in Europe and if stocks start to recover there, I would expect US stocks to recover also.

I think the next few weeks will be volatile, but the next Quarters earnings will start to be reported in a few weeks and they may help to halt this recent pull back.

Nasi - I don't think the Greek crisis is past tense just yet. I'd say this bear is just starting.

[RTM]

If you believe this guy.....then yes, the bear is certainly just starting. What is a bit interesting in the clip is the way he relates the economic outcomes to demographics. Specifically, he identifies the baby boomers ending their bubble of spending as a problem.
Quite interesting...he reckons deflations is coming to the US in a big way...holding cash won't be so bad afterall if that comes to fruition.

http://pro.dentresearch.com/DOW_IES_EXT/LBNBR921?h=true

Hope the link worls

[RTM]

If you believe this guy.....then yes, the bear is certainly just starting. What is a bit interesting in the clip is the way he relates the economic outcomes to demographics. Specifically, he identifies the baby boomers ending their bubble of spending as a problem.
Quite interesting...he reckons deflations is coming to the US in a big way...holding cash won't be so bad afterall if that comes to fruition.

http://pro.dentresearch.com/DOW_IES_EXT/LBNBR921?h=true

Hope the link works

[whatsup]

Aust closed on Monday so expect a dull day,

[skid]

In NZ residential property prices have been pretty resilient in downturns. For example there was a dip in house prices during the GFC but nothing like what occurred with share prices. Much of the resilience would be because of NZ's tax policies...favoured treatment of owner-occupied housing, lack of capital gains, easy ability to leverage investor housing in conjunction with negative gearing meaning that investors in NZ can off-set losses against other income sources (including salaries). I do not know how Japan treats investor housing or housing in general but the Japanese experience (and American for that matter) may not be relevant in the current NZ investment and tax regime which favours investment in housing.

There may be differences in how each country looks at housing,but that is just a sideshow--the real and blatantly obvious difference is that Japan has been going through a long period of mild DEFLATION,unlike NZ. That will kill an economy and it is whats got economists in every country scared.

I have friends (who were teachers)who have gone back to Japan after 12 yrs and found the prices of many items were almost the same as when they were there all those years ago-there has been very little growth--economically speaking its like trying to walk through deep mud.
If the chickens come home to roost,as a result of all the economic ''experiments'' this could happen internationally --Big drops are scarey
but a death of a thousand cuts is a far more damaging result (but if it happens,they have brought it on themselves--or their kids)

I own property and dont particularly want to sell them.It like a retirement hobby,keeping them up to scratch (eventually for the kids) so I hope like hell I am wrong

[skid]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-a-quarter-century-cash-had-never-beaten-stocks-bondsuntil-now-2015-09-25?mod=MW_story_top_stories

[Nasi Goreng]

While property prices in Auckland have soared in the last 20 years, it amazes me that a good chunk of the population and property investors think this can go on forever. When I suggest that things could reverse I often get blank looks as if I'm crazy. I'm presented with a whole load of supply and demand reasons as to why prices could not possibly decline.

The problem with deflation is that once it starts, fear sets in and the willingness to lay down a lot of cash for something is less than it would have been during the good times. It is so easy to see in the sharemarket as bargains at the start of a downtrend suddenly look like a big mistake. We have never really had this problem in Auckland and even during GFC, prices did not fall that much. I think at some point in the future, people will look back in disbelief that house prices were an avg of what? 10 times gross earnings? There will become a time when basic economic fundamentals kick in. Will we see a big crash or a long period of flat prices like seen in Japan? We may see neither and all of the smart property investors may be able to see something that I can't buy into. I'm on the sidelines except for a reasonable amount of shares in retirement sector.

[p2r]

AEP here describes a change in the tide as workers become more sought after... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11882915/Deflation-supercyle-is-over-as-world-runs-out-of-workers.html

[Daytr]

What amuses me is that everyone is talking deflation, mainly due to oil & other commodities being smashed. However apparently inflation was in check when oil quadrupled in price as did many other commodities. The distortion by governments in reporting has lead us to where we are. If you can't trust that stats. what can you trust? We are now living in a world of bubbles, but the most significant is the government debt bubble & it can't go on forever.
I'm not saying that what we are seeing now is it, but at some point the massive debt levels of the likes of Japan, the US and parts of Europe will cause an almighty collapse. Unless of course there is massive reform, however I can't see that happening.

[digger]

What amuses me is that everyone is talking deflation, mainly due to oil & other commodities being smashed. However apparently inflation was in check when oil quadrupled in price as did many other commodities. The distortion by governments in reporting has lead us to where we are. If you can't trust that stats. what can you trust? We are now living in a world of bubbles, but the most significant is the government debt bubble & it can't go on forever.
I'm not saying that what we are seeing now is it, but at some point the massive debt levels of the likes of Japan, the US and parts of Europe will cause an almighty collapse. Unless of course there is massive reform, however I can't see that happening.

Daytr,in short I can not agree with you.
I am 74 now and if there is one statement I have heard down the decades,it is that we [govts] just can not go on borrowing and all hell will break loose when it has to be paid back. For twenty or thirty years I did believe it but not anymore. The facts as we live it seem to be that numbers are without limit so so can money be. Have the US not raised there debt ceiling about 40 times and another one is to be decided in the next few weeks.
Well if it is to end then something different to the last 100 years will have to surface to change the equation,because as crazy as it sounds the present system works [somehow] so will probably keep on working. Which in facts means that for another 74 years the debt limit will keep on being raised and thousands of comments will be made that this just can not go on,but it will.
Cheers and I would not lose sleep over it.

[Leftfield]

[QUOTE=Daytr;592449]What amuses me is that everyone is talking deflation, mainly due to oil & other commodities being smashed. However apparently inflation was in check when oil quadrupled in price as did many other commodities. The distortion by governments in reporting has lead us to where we are. If you can't trust that stats. what can you trust? We are now living in a world of bubbles, but the most significant is the government debt bubble & it can't go on forever.
I'm not saying that what we are seeing now is it, but at some point the massive debt levels of the likes of Japan, the US and parts of Europe will cause an almighty collapse. Unless of course there is massive reform, however I can't see that happening.[/QUOTE

I'm beginning to think this whole Black Monday thing has been over-rated. Sure it has been a good time to de-risk your portfolio, however, the slump has also presented some nice buying opportunities. The NZX seems to offer some good value stocks, and the low dollar helps. DYOR.

[kiora]

[QUOTE=Daytr;592449]What amuses me is that everyone is talking deflation, mainly due to oil & other commodities being smashed. However apparently inflation was in check when oil quadrupled in price as did many other commodities. The distortion by governments in reporting has lead us to where we are. If you can't trust that stats. what can you trust? We are now living in a world of bubbles, but the most significant is the government debt bubble & it can't go on forever.
I'm not saying that what we are seeing now is it, but at some point the massive debt levels of the likes of Japan, the US and parts of Europe will cause an almighty collapse. Unless of course there is massive reform, however I can't see that happening.[/QUOTE

I'm beginning to think this whole Black Monday thing has been over-rated. Sure it has been a good time to de-risk your portfolio, however, the slump has also presented some nice buying opportunities. The NZX seems to offer some good value stocks, and the low dollar helps. DYOR.

My sentiments too LF,the shorter's haven't created enough FEAR.But then as Hoop says we may be playing Russian Roulette.My take is their is more GREED with low interest rates,commodity prices and exchange rates,some NZ companies should benefit from these factors unless there is an implosion in overseas markets.I get the feeling the bears on the sharetrader threads are getting twitchy but then again I may be complacent.My view is that there needs to be at least a 10% drop in the market to warrant selling & buying back in latter to allow for the cost of comision & mistiming the market

[skid]

i understand your sentiments.The NZ share market has not had that 10% correction so why get twitchy?--Well because the US and other overseas stock markets have had that 10% correction and we live in a world of globalization.So while it has'nt happened here ,it is a good time to exercise caution.
There is more than one way to do this and it doesnt necessarily mean selling everything--But you should be monitoring if you take it seriously.
In the end NZ is just a tiny little market that couldnt compete with Los Angles county so a stupid decision somewhere in another part of the world can ,unfortunately have a major affect on us.
you can adopt the opposite approach and buy up,hoping for a bargain but at this stage many would say that you are playing longer odds than waiting for things to settle overseas.
IMO everything operates within a framework -so you may have a good share that operates in the NZ share market worth just over 18,000,000---Whats to say you wont end up owning a good share in a NZ share market worth 15,000,000(because of dumb things happening overseas)--My guess is that the SP would have gone down,even though it rates just as good compared to the rest of the share market and is still a good company doing good things.
If bad things happen overseas I think its not realistic to not think at some stage NZ wont play follow the leader (When the US sneezes..and all that...)

This idea works for things like property as well--if the total property market is worth 10-20% less,and your property is still worth the same % of that total (lets say its a good property in a good suburb) its still going to be worth less,because the whole playing field has shifted because to much money has been wiped out of the whole market--even with a housing shortage

[Daytr]

Obviously fine not to agree, however if debt had just grown in line with GDP, it probably wouldn't be a problem, however it hasn't its soared in relation to GDP and that's an issue and a relatively new thing. Just look at a few charts of Japanese or US debt to GDP ratios over the last 50 years & the last 10 years stand out. The problem then is that to raise interest rates you also raise the cost of government borrowing and someone like Japan simply cannot afford to do it. The US isn't far away from that either. However US does have luxury of immigration and some growth.
Of course it can go on, however if the system is working there will be credit down grades & there will be less risk premium applied to more risky debt & we are already seeing that in the junk bond market. This is precisely what caused the credit crunch, the under pricing of risk.


Daytr,in short I can not agree with you.
I am 74 now and if there is one statement I have heard down the decades,it is that we [govts] just can not go on borrowing and all hell will break loose when it has to be paid back. For twenty or thirty years I did believe it but not anymore. The facts as we live it seem to be that numbers are without limit so so can money be. Have the US not raised there debt ceiling about 40 times and another one is to be decided in the next few weeks.
Well if it is to end then something different to the last 100 years will have to surface to change the equation,because as crazy as it sounds the present system works [somehow] so will probably keep on working. Which in facts means that for another 74 years the debt limit will keep on being raised and thousands of comments will be made that this just can not go on,but it will.
Cheers and I would not lose sleep over it.

[BlackCross]

The NZ share market has not had that 10% correction .......

For a lot of international investors, or funds, the NZX correction has already been over 20% :o(

[couta1]

Skid there will never be a time when bad things aren't happening either overseas or here either environmentally or economically or both that's the nature of the world we live in. Often times you just have to get amongst it and ride out the storms of life and that includes the market storms. Character is enhanced by learning to endure not so favourable times not by sitting on the sidelines and that applies to all areas of life not just the share market.

[fiasco]

Skid there will never be a time when bad things aren't happening either overseas or here either environmentally or economically or both that's the nature of the world we live in. Often times you just have to get amongst it and ride out the storms of life and that includes the market storms. Character is enhanced by learning to endure not so favourable times not by sitting on the sidelines and that applies to all areas of life not just the share market.

Not entirely convinced. There was an opinion piece I was reading in Juno on a flight this morning, in which the analyst was indicating, in time of uncertainty, it's safe to hold cash (many have indicated the same opinion), and investors must realise when to minimise their lose, during uncertainty. You could ride it out, but why suffer further incremental losses if you can minimise the damage and re-enter at a cheaper price once an uptrend has been signaled.

The comment around Character I think is rather subjective. Character could also be enhanced by discipline, by having an appropriate exit strategy, especially during a downturn.

[skid]

It depends on whether your talking a gamblers character or logical character---If your implying that being a gambler is the way to enhance character then I would have to disagree--you have simply mixed admirable attributes to a ridiculous situation in your post.
I would have thought you would have started to learn by now.
Im always puzzled how you can be carrying such large losses and still expect people to take your advice seriously. Ignoring the market is not a strategy. ( I had to chuckle as to whether you caught the symbolism of your down hill skiing comment):)

[couta1]

It depends on whether your talking a gamblers character or logical character---If your implying that being a gambler is the way to enhance character then I would have to disagree--you have simply mixed admirable attributes to a ridiculous situation in your post.
I would have thought you would have started to learn by now.
Im always puzzled how you can be carrying such large losses and still expect people to take your advice seriously. Ignoring the market is not a strategy. ( I had to chuckle as to whether you caught the symbolism of your down hill skiing comment):) Its really quite simple Skid, mistakes made historically can take a long time to work through, you can either sell and realise those big paper losses or continue to hold and see what eventuates on a longer term basis which is the route I have chosen to take. I have learnt a lot but the sowing and reaping principle runs its course, theres no quick fix either way, sure going forward things can be done differently but just because I've chosen to ride things out has nothing to do with not learning. PS-Just off to tune my skis ready for a day on the mountain tomorrow:cool:

[kiora]

i understand your sentiments.The NZ share market has not had that 10% correction so why get twitchy?--Well because the US and other overseas stock markets have had that 10% correction and we live in a world of globalization.So while it has'nt happened here ,it is a good time to exercise caution.
There is more than one way to do this and it doesnt necessarily mean selling everything--But you should be monitoring if you take it seriously.
In the end NZ is just a tiny little market that couldnt compete with Los Angles county so a stupid decision somewhere in another part of the world can ,unfortunately have a major affect on us.
you can adopt the opposite approach and buy up,hoping for a bargain but at this stage many would say that you are playing longer odds than waiting for things to settle overseas.
IMO everything operates within a framework -so you may have a good share that operates in the NZ share market worth just over 18,000,000---Whats to say you wont end up owning a good share in a NZ share market worth 15,000,000(because of dumb things happening overseas)--My guess is that the SP would have gone down,even though it rates just as good compared to the rest of the share market and is still a good company doing good things.
If bad things happen overseas I think its not realistic to not think at some stage NZ wont play follow the leader (When the US sneezes..and all that...)

This idea works for things like property as well--if the total property market is worth 10-20% less,and your property is still worth the same % of that total (lets say its a good property in a good suburb) its still going to be worth less,because the whole playing field has shifted because to much money has been wiped out of the whole market--even with a housing shortage

Hi Skid
I agree on reviewing the portfolio regularly and sticking to your own "rules regarding when to sell' I have been complacent often.My portfolio value retreated 5 % from its peak but has since recovered to the value it was at its peak.Thinking about volatility and I would suggest the 10 % is too low.I would suggest more like 15%-20% before it is worth trading to allow for the lag before you sell on a dropping share price and lag before buy signals are triggered.I must admit my trading ability is probably crap anyway.Recently after reviewing my portfolio I was ready to sell SKL but luckily hesitated & I traded out of 2 shares that have since rebounded 10%.Luckily into another share that has gone up 15%

[skid]

Its really quite simple Skid, mistakes made historically can take a long time to work through, you can either sell and realise those big paper losses or continue to hold and see what eventuates on a longer term basis which is the route I have chosen to take. I have learnt a lot but the sowing and reaping principle runs its course, theres no quick fix either way, sure going forward things can be done differently but just because I've chosen to ride things out has nothing to do with not learning. PS-Just off to tune my skis ready for a day on the mountain tomorrow:cool:

Choosing to ride things out is very different than encouraging those on the sidelines to jump in--You have done your damage ,now you are trying to manage losses--your strategy is to ride it out--(do nothing?)--I would suggest it takes more courage to sell and move on (like you did with XRO) (where is it now ,somewhere in the $15 range)but everyone has their strategy--Im not suggesting everyone sell out completely--but to keep a close eye--my post was simply a response to your post-
Your paper losses are the same as real losses,because they represent money you cannot put to a potentially better cause--

Things have been looking overbought (in the US etc.) for a good while now--it has just taken the Chinese devaluation to bring it to the attention of many.
I dont need to be IN the sharemarket--I can sit and learn from the sidelines---I dont need to be in the middle of the action all the time(Ill leave that to the action heroes in the movies)

[skid]

Hi Skid
I agree on reviewing the portfolio regularly and sticking to your own "rules regarding when to sell' I have been complacent often.My portfolio value retreated 5 % from its peak but has since recovered to the value it was at its peak.Thinking about volatility and I would suggest the 10 % is too low.I would suggest more like 15%-20% before it is worth trading to allow for the lag before you sell on a dropping share price and lag before buy signals are triggered.I must admit my trading ability is probably crap anyway.Recently after reviewing my portfolio I was ready to sell SKL but luckily hesitated & I traded out of 2 shares that have rebounded 10%.Luckily into another share that has gone up 15%

Yep -keeping in touch is good--(congrates on the 5% profit)

[stoploss]

Its really quite simple Skid, mistakes made historically can take a long time to work through, you can either sell and realise those big paper losses or continue to hold and see what eventuates on a longer term basis which is the route I have chosen to take. I have learnt a lot but the sowing and reaping principle runs its course, theres no quick fix either way, sure going forward things can be done differently but just because I've chosen to ride things out has nothing to do with not learning. PS-Just off to tune my skis ready for a day on the mountain tomorrow:cool:

Couta , maybe try thinking of your portfolio using a sports analogy .
Think of Rugby players as your stocks ...you want to win the World Cup so pick the absolute best players to do this for you . No use holding onto the guys out of form , too old etc , they are just not going to cut it . So you have to drop them ..ie: Cull the portfolio .
Currently your strategy is to hold on for ever waiting for a good game ...meantime you are out of the tournament .....Good luck with your backline including , Simon Mannix ,Mark Ranby and Scott Hamilton .... think they are going to Cut it against DC, Ma and Ben Smith ?

[skid]

Another way to think of it (if your really keen to stay in the market)is find what you (and preferably others)think is a great stock,and then it is just a simple matter of how many of your under performer shares equals how many of the shares of your stock of choice.--that way you can avoid thinking in terms of real loss.--its more of a transfer to what you hope will go up,rather than down (or sideways for years)

but there is no easy way--- the first time you said ''theres no way Im going to take a real loss''--are you up or down from that point?

[easy money]

Dow just above 16000..do I need to hide in the basement?

[kiora]

Well done RBNZ. Insider trading ? :)
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/77836/rbnz-makes-near-record-surplus-back-falling-nzd-pays-crown-510-million-dividend?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+29+ September+2015

[pak]

Death cross - o ohhhh round two coming right up...................

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/nasdaq-death-cross-forms-four-horsemen-pattern.html

[Joshuatree]

Death Cross is a crucifiction of materialism. JT 2009

[NZSilver]

Big drops on all markets, next few trading days will be very interesting.

[BlackPeter]

Death cross - o ohhhh round two coming right up...................

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/nasdaq-death-cross-forms-four-horsemen-pattern.html

Just a quote from the article:


Since 1979, there have been 13 instances when all four indexes traded in a death cross, according to Brean Capital.

In those instances, the market returns in the short term or less than one month were "weak." In the long-term, however, the performance improved drastically with the market up 75 percent of the time three months out.

So - be very afraid :scared: ... chances are good (3 out of 4) that markets are up three months out. Lets all sell our shares and go into hibernation - and leave the gains to the doomsday preachers :t_down:

[Hoop]

I wonder how long the NZSE will continue to be a buffer against the global flow. as it has dropped only ~5%

Yesterday we saw another major market officially operating in a bear market cycle..Singapore joined the Bear Club... a Club with an increasing membership
NZX50 needs to be 4750 to join the club...There's still a way to go as the NZX50 is currently at 5699

[skid]

Just a quote from the article:



So - be very afraid :scared: ... chances are good (3 out of 4) that markets are up three months out. Lets all sell our shares and go into hibernation - and leave the gains to the doomsday preachers :t_down:

It would be interesting to know how many of those cases happened after the QEs(which are now history) I wouldnt bet the farm on an interest rate rise by the fed though--I think that ship has sailed for now

(thought we may get a bit of grumpiness this morning-) How are the doomsday preachers going to get the gains?-all they are trying to do is not lose--I suppose thats a gain,but its the bargain hunters that are going for the big payoff--kind of a dangerous game atm though,but who knows whats in store?

[skid]

I wonder how long the NZSE will continue to be a buffer against the global flow. as it has dropped only ~5%

Yesterday we saw another major market officially operating in a bear market cycle..Singapore joined the Bear Club... a Club with an increasing membership
NZX50 needs to be 4750 to join the club...There's still a way to go as the NZX50 is currently at 5699

2 scenarios-----''Nah it'l never happen here'' or ''we still have the golden opportunity to escape with most of our dosh''

or maybe a third--we will take a beating now but all will be well in 3 months time

[skid]

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/stock-market-fundamentals-deteriorating-2015-9

its always been interesting how the share market has not really reflected the economy in general--this explains a few reasons why

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Well done RBNZ. Insider trading ? :)
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/77836/rbnz-makes-near-record-surplus-back-falling-nzd-pays-crown-510-million-dividend?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+29+ September+2015

Thanks kiora,

An excellent post and heads up.

What are the chances of the RBNZ, and all of the politicians et al becoming addicted to the rush of FX gains ... ?

thanks and regards

[skid]

seems like a royal conflict of interest (if you'll excuse the pun)

[Nasi Goreng]

It will be interesting to see how FMG goes today in Oz. I would expect it to get walloped after commods getting bashed overnight. New lows?

[stoploss]

Well done RBNZ. Insider trading ? :)
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/77836/rbnz-makes-near-record-surplus-back-falling-nzd-pays-crown-510-million-dividend?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+29+ September+2015
It's not insider trading when the RBNZ Governor at consecutive OCR , MPS reviews states the currency is " overvalued "
They reserve the right to intervene against the currency when they feel it is significantly out of line with the fundamentals .
They did and have reaped the rewards , as have many others who followed .

[Master98]

currently, whole world share markets looks are very ugly, best advice is to leave the market totally, I already cashed all my shares and happy sit on sideline.

[gv1]

Same here, nearly bought some in fake rally yesterday.
Good to spend time with kids , shopping etc rather than worry about the market.

[Jantar]

I am wondering where this bear market is that everyone is going on about. Yes some of my shares have taken a bit of a hit, but others have performed nicely. My smallest profit (SCL) is twice as large as my biggest loss (HNZ). Three shares are now worth less than I paid, four are worth considerably more, and one is down by almost the exact amount of the brokerage on a single transaction. Overall I am still up 28% in the past 12 months and quite happy to keep buying as others are selling.

[Daytr]

I've used today's selloff to go long a few stocks and also bought the DOW & ASX.
The DOW I can see going lower perhaps, although its not like corporate America is doing badly, the stocks were just over valued.

Someone mentioned Glencore & I think they indeed are ones to watch. If they did go bust (not saying they will or even if its likely) Commodities especially metals are likely to surge higher as they control much of the copper in particular shipped around the would and are a significant producer. I hope they aren't speculatively long as well, if anything they may be short against their physical position, but I'm speculating. I'm very long Aussie copper stocks as I don't see copper going much lower and the Aussie is helping significantly.

My biggest concerns are more around government debt and this correction was more about an over valuation of US stocks caused by QE and China coming off the boil. China I don't see as an issue as they can control outcomes to a certain extent. Government debt globally is out of control, but its not an issue yet, other than the zero interest rates it is creating. It will be a problem if not addressed, but I don't think what we are seeing is about that.

[stevevai1983]

I wish FPH SP drop more so I can finally buy some.. It's always expensive.
Same thing for RYM

China is not really OK. It is actually first time facing some real big problems since 2000. And now days China has huge impact to the world economy.

[skid]

I've used today's selloff to go long a few stocks and also bought the DOW & ASX.
The DOW I can see going lower perhaps, although its not like corporate America is doing badly, the stocks were just over valued.

Someone mentioned Glencore & I think they indeed are ones to watch. If they did go bust (not saying they will or even if its likely) Commodities especially metals are likely to surge higher as they control much of the copper in particular shipped around the would and are a significant producer. I hope they aren't speculatively long as well, if anything they may be short against their physical position, but I'm speculating. I'm very long Aussie copper stocks as I don't see copper going much lower and the Aussie is helping significantly.

My biggest concerns are more around government debt and this correction was more about an over valuation of US stocks caused by QE and China coming off the boil. China I don't see as an issue as they can control outcomes to a certain extent. Government debt globally is out of control, but its not an issue yet, other than the zero interest rates it is creating. It will be a problem if not addressed, but I don't think what we are seeing is about that.

Thats interesting you dont see China as an issue---The rest of the world certainly does--They are not doing a real swift job at controlling outcomes so far and dont really have much of a track record at showing they can.--I think part of this turmoil is people suddenly realizing that the Chinese Gov. may not have a handle on this,like everyone assumed.

[skid]

the blue Chips (including the beloved Spark)were the biggest in the NZ sell off today--(alot of overseas money in them that was cashing up)-----globalization hits

US pre market is slightly in the green--maybe taking a breather?

[trader_jackson]

ASX 200 was hit extremely hard... I was not quite picking this, this must be one of the biggest falls "in recent times"

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-29/australian-shares-tumble-on-steep-overseas-declines/6812472

[elZorro]

Well the ASX 200 certainly had a Black Tuesday - massive sell off in the last hour and post close to finish 3.8% down.

Another 26 trading days with that gross amount of losses, and there'd be nothing left :( My European indicator share is still dropping, and so is OGC, who run one of the most profitable gold mines in the world, on a cost per ounce basis.

Glad I'm an interested bystander.

[trader_jackson]

It seems debt levels are back in focus (for the miners especially)... Lucky the only miner I hold shares in (Iluka Resources) has a very very strong balance sheet, and a good/different product to the usual commodities (ie iron ore, coal, copper etc).

Will just be holding onto my hat very tightly during these times...

[see weed]

I am wondering where this bear market is that everyone is going on about. Yes some of my shares have taken a bit of a hit, but others have performed nicely. My smallest profit (SCL) is twice as large as my biggest loss (HNZ). Three shares are now worth less than I paid, four are worth considerably more, and one is down by almost the exact amount of the brokerage on a single transaction. Overall I am still up 28% in the past 12 months and quite happy to keep buying as others are selling.
Yeah, me got 4 lots of divs coming through this week worth over $10,000. It will prob. go back in market at the right time and price. Too many good divs to be made to be leaving it in bank.

[craic]

Sold Spark first thing this morning, despite a bung laptop, and could get the back for nearly 3g's less by close but will hold the cash for a while longer.

[Daytr]

KW, I think China is doing relatively well to stop the rot setting in. Its a fledgling opening economy that is going to have its volatility, however I think even at 7% growth in the world's 2nd largest economy it will prove that stocks are relatively cheap in the medium term.
Commodities I think are entering the capitulation phase with some heavy hitter producers cutting production and or not investing in new production.
I think you need to be selective in regards which commodity, however the likes of copper & gold in Aussie denominated miners look good to me.
I am quite happy to take positions when others are screaming. ;-) I have my stops & if hit so be it, however the upside from my stop is significant.

[Baa_Baa]

And it's October soon. Never a good month. What a setup! Ostrich theory's stern test is sure to follow. Be in impecible quality to minimise losses, be out of almost everything else to avoid catastophic losses, or go and hide in undeniable growth where few give a toss either way. Jmho not advice.

BAA

[couta1]

The skiing was a lot better than the market by the looks today, never mind the sun will still rise tomorrow even if its obscured by cloud. Hey Skid not all the blue chips got sold off, Air held up ( But then again it's seriously undervalued aye)

[BlackPeter]

And it's October soon. Never a good month. What a setup! Ostrich theory's stern test is sure to follow. Be in impecible quality to minimise losses, be out of almost everything else to avoid catastophic losses, or go and hide in undeniable growth where few give a toss either way. Jmho not advice.

BAA

Hi Baa ...

somewhat confused ... you said "October soon, never a good month".

I am just wondering how you measure that?

Just looking at the NZX50 values for the last 3 "Octobers" ... and the score did always rise during this month:

1 Oct 2014: 5275; 31 Oct 2014: 5388 - up 113
2 Oct 2013: 4769; 30 Oct 2013: 4868 - up 99
1 Oct 2012: 3905; 29 Oct 2012: 3914 - up 9

I guess, obviously nobody can predict what happens this October (well, I can't), but just wondering whether you can help us to understand what you mean with "never a good month"? Did you intend to say "in the past not a good month for shorters"?

[skid]

The skiing was a lot better than the market by the looks today, never mind the sun will still rise tomorrow even if its obscured by cloud. Hey Skid not all the blue chips got sold off, Air held up ( But then again it's seriously undervalued aye)

No not all got sold off--the ones sold were the ones that had alot of foreign money invested--Im not sure if that the case with AIR but since its overvalued it will probably drop on its own ....(just pulling your leg...dont know if its undervalued or overvalued ...just like you dont)--the market will decide

aside from the Nasdaq US markets are taking a breather so possibly some (blue chips)will recover a bit I mentioned Spark in particular because everyone was raving about how they were bucking the trend of outside markets.

If this happens to turn into a longer term slow down it could put a damper on overseas vacations so no one really knows about airline stocks,but things certainly look fine at this stage (alot of flights that Ive been on have been pretty full)--of course the nature of airlines (advance bookings etc)mean that a slowdown would not be immediate,unless god forbid ,something really bad happened)

Meanwhile betting against the market is like betting against the house at the casino ,you may win a few times but it will get you in the end--there are so many reasons that cause the market to do what it does that we cannot fathom. Thats why most who do well, try to find ways to work with the market Trends etc. (and try not to think of their shares as their kids or pets who require our constant devotion) Like parents ,they (shares)will still be there when you return.

Alot of the posters on this forum have been investing in an era of easy money ,so even with the ups and downs,there has been that general advantage,created by the QEs--things have changed a bit now--In the US in particular they are trying to figure out how to start to pay the piper without causing to much damage(not an easy task--some say impossible) So there is a real chance we will be playing in a different arena now where the playing field has tipped--If that is the case ,those who have ''reset the clock'' know they need the advantage of cheaper shares to survive so have exited---time will tell if they are right.
I personally feel there are very real reasons why all this is happening other than ''sh-t happens''-----Have you read the book ''the sun comes up on the poor'' Its a story of a gambler who was once comfortable but bet his money away and his life after living in poverty and all the adventures that happened ,on his way to the bottom(as life went on).------Just pulling your leg again--hope you have a sense of humour:)

[skid]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/sep/29/imf-emerging-markets-warning-financial-crisis

[Baa_Baa]

Investopedia agrees with you BP, http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/october-effect.asp ... so I guess you're right.


Hi Baa ...

somewhat confused ... you said "October soon, never a good month".

I am just wondering how you measure that?

Just looking at the NZX50 values for the last 3 "Octobers" ... and the score did always rise during this month:

1 Oct 2014: 5275; 31 Oct 2014: 5388 - up 113
2 Oct 2013: 4769; 30 Oct 2013: 4868 - up 99
1 Oct 2012: 3905; 29 Oct 2012: 3914 - up 9

I guess, obviously nobody can predict what happens this October (well, I can't), but just wondering whether you can help us to understand what you mean with "never a good month"? Did you intend to say "in the past not a good month for shorters"?

[skid]

I think its more overseas markets that the ''october'' thing applies to --Im sure there are better things to research though :)

[couta1]

Yes Skid I do have a good sense of humour, I mean my portfolio is 263k in the red but I'm still happy:) PS-No I don't take medication.

[ratkin]

Yes Skid I do have a good sense of humour, I mean my portfolio is 263k in the red but I'm still happy:) PS-No I don't take medication.

Its all relative, have to think in percentage terms rather than values. Sounds like a big portfolio

[couta1]

Its all relative, have to think in percentage terms rather than values. Sounds like a big portfolio
Very true, its down 19% so fairly substantial I guess, but 5 years from now how will it be placed? that's the more important question.

[Snow Leopard]

Hi Baa ...

somewhat confused ... you said "October soon, never a good month".

I am just wondering how you measure that?

Just looking at the NZX50 values for the last 3 "Octobers" ... and the score did always rise during this month:

1 Oct 2014: 5275; 31 Oct 2014: 5388 - up 113
2 Oct 2013: 4769; 30 Oct 2013: 4868 - up 99
1 Oct 2012: 3905; 29 Oct 2012: 3914 - up 9

I guess, obviously nobody can predict what happens this October (well, I can't), but just wondering whether you can help us to understand what you mean with "never a good month"? Did you intend to say "in the past not a good month for shorters"?

"OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

Very true, its down 19% so fairly substantial I guess, but 5 years from now how will it be placed? that's the more important question.

Thats alot of money ,but 19% is not catastrophic--theres still hope Coutts (over a million bucks invested in todays share market-Holy Mac!)

Thats still over a million left-(after the red)--you could do alot of things with that---anyway good luck---(are you sure your not pulling our leg??)

We could start a new thread--''Is what couts has left in his portfolio enough to retire on''?

[couta1]

Thats alot of money ,but 19% is not catastrophic--theres still hope Coutts (over a million bucks invested in todays share market-Holy Mac!)

Thats still over a million left-(after the red)--you could do alot of things with that---anyway good luck---(are you sure your not pulling our leg??)

We could start a new thread--''Is what couts has left in his portfolio enough to retire on''? No leg pulling Skid just straight up facts, will be a long time till I retire and besides I live a simple life in general.

[skid]

I thought I was all in cash but ive just realized I still have 1 share that I basically forgot about as it was a small amount that a friend invested way back when and did an off market transfer to me---Its down 98% (NWE) so Im far worse off than you Coutts %wise:):)

But it does show what can happen--That was before 2010 when I joined ST so time does not always do the trick! That and PPP were my teachers.(aside from the more knowledgeable posters)

I live a pretty simple life as well (see ,we have something in common) retired except for managing our rentals so asset preservation is higher on my list.

[couta1]

Yep Skid the simple life is the best life, having a million or more would be pretty standard these days I'm guessing for someone near their mid fifties whether that be in real estate, the share market or where ever. Some people live in expensive houses unlike our 350k model so its all relative really

[Master98]

Yes Skid I do have a good sense of humour, I mean my portfolio is 263k in the red but I'm still happy:) PS-No I don't take medication.
I will be crying if lose such mount money although it's so called paper loss.

[pak]

Yip that's a lot. I wish I had that amount of coin to put in.... I mean pull out. Good luck!

[Bjauck]

Yep Skid the simple life is the best life, having a million or more would be pretty standard these days I'm guessing for someone near their mid fifties whether that be in real estate, the share market or where ever. Some people live in expensive houses unlike our 350k model so its all relative really

I would guess that in NZ a million dollars in shares would be way more than the average for someone in that age group. Maybe in the US or UK it would be an average portfolio. In NZ though so much more household wealth is in owner-occupied residential housing and rental housing.

My guess is that the median (perhaps average) older middle-aged Auckland household may have about a million in total wealth comprising about $660,000 in owner occupied housing net equity, $120,000 in kiwisaver, $120,000 in the bank and $100,000 in shares/small businesses/rental housing etc

[BlackPeter]

"OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Love it, I knew somebody could bring clarity into this puzzle ... nobody can beat the tigers wisdom ...

BTW David Kotok told us that this October is the time window to buy (while fear still reigns):

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-29/david-kotok-why-you-should-buy-stocks-now

Obviously - he might be right or he might be wrong, but at least he puts his name against a prediction which can be verified (in a month, that is).

Lets review in November ...

[Snow Leopard]

19% or $263K over what time frame?

My NZ portfolios are:
down nearly 6% on it's peak value on 3rd Aug 2015

up about 20% on a year ago.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Notes:
nearly and about are not recognised accounting terms.

Provisional approximations pending end of day closing prices and actually checking the accounts.

[kiora]

19% or $263K over what time frame?

My NZ portfolios are:
down nearly 6% on it's peak value on 3rd Aug 2015

up about 20% on a year ago.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Notes:
nearly and about are not recognised accounting terms.

Provisional approximations pending end of day closing prices and actually checking the accounts.

Well done PT :)

[Leftfield]

From Bloomberg overnight…. dare we say good news yet?

"The S&P 500 Index climbed 1.7 percent to 1,915.48 at 10:44 a.m. in New York, after snapping a five-day losing streak Tuesday that clipped 4.3 percent from the gauge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 232.10 points, or 1.5 percent, to 16,281.23. The Nasdaq Composite Index surged 2 percent, while the Russell 2000 Index advanced 1.3 percent on the way to halting eight days of losses.

“This is the worst quarter in four years,” said Andrew Brenner, the head of international fixed income for National Alliance Capital Markets. “If stocks had had a great quarter, they’d be selling the stocks and buying the bonds, but that’s not the case today. I think the U.S. economy is on the right track, and the equity markets will turn around and have a strong last quarter of the year.”

[Daytr]

Yep well the doom & gloom merchants missed an opportunity to buy 48 hours ago. ;-)
DOW now back to the top of the ascending channel.
Stay in the range or break higher?

[NZSilver]

Anyone able to pop up one of those impressive charts. So looks like we can go either way...

[skid]

volatility is the word---one thing that caught my eye was that traders were optimistic because of SOFT economic data which meant maybe more stimulus from central banks (what a world we live in)

Im sure alot were relieved by yesterdays stocks---Is this the bottom for now? We will only know when we start to see a pattern established.---agree it could go either way (of course those on the peripherals will continue to tout their take on things) and why not--everyone want s to either make a buck or not lose one.

What no one wants is for things to actually get bad enough for something serious like banks getting into trouble etc.

[skid]

Yep well the doom & gloom merchants missed an opportunity to buy 48 hours ago. ;-)
DOW now back to the top of the ascending channel.
Stay in the range or break higher?



look at the volume on the chart--are you actually making a call from these 1 day results?

[fiasco]

Agree still be wary of movements - http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/30/us-stocks-open-higher-following-global-rally.html

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Is last nights close on DOW, Nasdaq, S&P end of quarter window dressing ... ?

[skid]

They reckon 2 things have to be resolved to get some real traction on the US markets--the interest rate issue by the fed---and more clarity on Chinas economy---If those 2 things are unresolved we may see new lows on the US market.
Many think that the Fed will delay till early next year --China?... who knows--guess we need to see some more results (earnings etc.)

The other thing that involves both these issues--If interest rates rise, it puts tremendous pressure on emerging countries that have taken on huge debt from the easy money. With a higher interest rate (Fed) ,these debts may become unmanageable putting strain on the big lenders--many emerging markets are already under strain from a drop off of Chinas demand for commodities upon which they depend. Add to that the inflow of money(spec) from all that QE now being pulled out(this is what happened in the Asian crisis) years ago.

[kiora]

Yep well the doom & gloom merchants missed an opportunity to buy 48 hours ago. ;-)
DOW now back to the top of the ascending channel.
Stay in the range or break higher?

Shush DT,don't entice the market,it can sting ! :)

[Hoop]

Yep well the doom & gloom merchants missed an opportunity to buy 48 hours ago. ;-)
DOW now back to the top of the ascending channel.
Stay in the range or break higher?

Well this doom and gloom merchant aka sheeple or sheeperson ..has as from yesterday sold out and now for the first time in 6 months I have enough cash to take part in any future opportunity....the excitement starts as of today:D

[Daytr]

I actually made the call already that the weakness was an opportunity to get long and it will trade back to the top of the range. So I have already been in & out! ;-)


look at the volume on the chart--are you actually making a call from these 1 day results?

[skid]

Are you saying you are back out or just recently back in? You are either on the same page as hoop or on an opposite course.---just curious.

[Daytr]

I traded the range, so I saw the break out as a false break, loaded up & then sold back out for some very nice gains particularly on the DOW, but also the ASX.
I'm still long some individual stocks.

[BlackPeter]

Looking at the NZX50 ... we seem to have now higher lows (though somewhat marginal) as well as higher highs. Interesting question is whether this is a very complicated dead cat bounce, just noise, or the start of a recovery ...

[Crackity]

Looking at the NZX50 ... we seem to have now higher lows (though somewhat marginal) as well as higher highs. Interesting question is whether this is a very complicated dead cat bounce, just noise, or the start of a recovery ...

Maybe the cat is only stunned BP :)

[Daytr]

I think the biggest difference between now & 2008 is there is so much cash on the sidelines & the market is a lot more wary than they were prior to the GFC & government's have shown they will act. Glencore wont be a Lehman even if did collapse which I doubt anyway. Commodities will rebound at some point & some are already showing signs of bottoming. I think the bigger risk than Glencore is the debt associated with the US & Canadian energy sector, but that has proven reasonably resilient so far with hedging allowing many to delay the price pain, however a debt implosion can not be ruled out from that sector which would make Glencore look like a pimple on the side of a volcano. Gold surged as did silver which was great as got long both only yesterday. ;-)

[skid]

Well the US had one of the worst jobs and manufacturing reports since the Great Recession this week, and the US markets rallied on the [bad] news. Why? Because the computers that make up 75-80% of all US trading are programmed to respond to bad news with buying - as it means no interest rate rises, more QE, and whatever else the Fed can think of to throw at the problem (NIRP, helicopter money?)

However, all the actual human investors I follow seem to have finally rolled over from bull to bear and are now advocating defensive positions.

So who will win? Computers vs Humans. There should be the making of a movie in this - I know, we can call it the Rise of the Machines :D

Thats getting very close to this

https://vimeo.com/groups/96331/videos/80799353

[h2so4]

[QUOTE=KW;593007]It appears that is exactly what is happening. We are living in strange
Not really. Whatever Governments try to fix the opposite always happens.

[Leftfield]

DJI heading back to 200 MA?? NZX bands tightening? Black Monday over …… ?

[kiora]

Well the US had one of the worst jobs and manufacturing reports since the Great Recession this week, and the US markets rallied on the [bad] news. Why? Because the computers that make up 75-80% of all US trading are programmed to respond to bad news with buying - as it means no interest rate rises, more QE, and whatever else the Fed can think of to throw at the problem (NIRP, helicopter money?)

However, all the actual human investors I follow seem to have finally rolled over from bull to bear and are now advocating defensive positions.

So who will win? Computers vs Humans. There should be the making of a movie in this - I know, we can call it the Rise of the Machines :D

When you go to the casino & bet against the house who wins KW ?

[Beagle]

Looking at the NZX50 ... we seem to have now higher lows (though somewhat marginal) as well as higher highs. Interesting question is whether this is a very complicated dead cat bounce, just noise, or the start of a recovery ...

I'm sure all those keen on TA will have an answer for you in three months time :D Maybe the cat is just licking it's wounds and cleaning its fur and will be fighting fit again soon ?

[skid]

It looks like the main thing that caused the reversal on Fridays Dow was an increase in oil price -so that would be a good thing to watch.
I think to interpret a ''taking a breather'' as a big turnaround may be a bit premature--just a gut feeling from what ive been observing doesnt really make me inclined to think the market is gearing up for a big surge ahead.
Does anyone really think they can put off raising interest rates in the US forever? What is going to cause a turnaround for the commodity based emerging countries(especially once interest rate do rise) Will it be China,like before?-hmmm thats looking a bit less likely now.(they are heavily over indebted from borrowing all that QE easy money,before the down turn in demand)
How are things shaping up for Europe?(getting a bit of negative interest rate action now)
Can the heavily indebted countries carry on like this for alot longer? (we think sometimes about ''will it get worse'',but not much about -just how are they going to solve these problems--what will get them up and running and healthy again?
--Of course these are not all the factors ,(and maybe Im missing some important issues that are on the positive side)but they are some things to consider (other than cats)

[skid]

Lets get through US earnings month first - which by the looks of things is not going to be great. The market has rallied as its betting that there will be no interest rate rises this year and in fact, that there is now a higher possibility of QE4 or more. But there's only so long you can push **** up hill. But bear market rallies can be good ones - just dont misinterpret them as a bull market recovery.

Speaking of the dismal US earnings on Fri --one has to wonder how much of even those are just summer work or the Walmart type jobs,and how much was actual quality jobs.

[xafalcon]

A year or so ago I read an article which said the US unemployment rate was being artificially supressed by people leaving the workforce and not actively seeking work. ie. they had given up looking. This demographic was not being captured in unemployment statistics, yet they were working age and without work

A graph of US participation rates over the past 15 years would be helpful in understanding how far the job market has truly recovered.

[Daytr]

Well its not necessarily no one wants to hire them, but its a bubble in the demograph that are simply retiring and the new generation leaving college aren't getting as many jobs as those leaving the workforce.
It is a problem I agree, however the US does have a growing population and that will keep the momentum going over time.
I'm short the DOW now in smalls, but long some Aussie stocks.
As mentioned before the big thing to watch out for is oil and related stocks.
If oil holds up or goes higher the pressure might be relieved in regards companies with large amounts of debt.
However if oil heads lower again, there could be a mess.

[xafalcon]

Thanks for the graph. What a stark contrast to NZ's participation rate of 68-69%

The fall equates to approx 6.3M workers over 7 years from mid 2008, assuming 60% of US population is in the working age bracket, and coincides with the GFC and "offshoring"

It will take a long time to raise that number back to 66% pre-GFC level

[Daytr]

Big surge in oil & DOW threatening to break out to the top side. Stopped myself out & then reset at 17735.
Seems like global tax avoidance is on the radar again, which wont be DOW positive.

[Not too Flash]

TTP signed along with positive DOW - will be interesting if any ripple among export stocks this morning

[skid]

TTP--I hope they had the sense to protect our Pharmac -but Im not optimistic about our negotiating skills--they may well have signed away NZs soverien rights--International court here we come?--hope not.

[Hoop]

TTP--I hope they had the sense to protect our Pharmac -but Im not optimistic about our negotiating skills--they may well have signed away NZs soverien rights--International court here we come?--hope not.

NZ is a small country against the heavy weights of USA Mexico Canada etc..but Aussi came in to bat with NZ re: medical patents..

Its hard to gauge the media as the local media will spin it to the way of the local readers ....so how does the US media spin it for their readers?..It may not be a done deal just yet as the big pharmaceutical companies have a lot of clout and they are not happy, so Congress may be a hurdle as I would assume these companies will be piling on the pressure......From MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-winners-and-losers-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership-deal-2015-10-05?dist=afterbell)

[xafalcon]

TTP--I hope they had the sense to protect our Pharmac -but Im not optimistic about our negotiating skills--they may well have signed away NZs soverien rights--International court here we come?--hope not.

Don't worry. Tim & John proudly informed us that we won't pay any more for our medicines. And they also said that the government would pay an extra $4.5M in Y1 plus $2.2M per year thereafter ($7.7M).

How dumb do they think we are? Do they really think that government money isn't our money???

I hope the journo's make this point very loud and clear.

It sounds like NZ came out of TPP deal with sweet FA. Tim was totally out of his depth, and his years of spin are unravelling

A deal at any cost. What a disappointing outcome.

[Hoop]

... ..What a disappointing outcome.

Really?..I thought we did alright..considering.............................. ....For a small Country we do punch above our weight internationally..

Must remember the laws of Nature when dealing with the heavyweights.. a very small country has no clout, we aren't going to win many fights....at best we can gain a better outcome being in an alliance..

We think we are one of the leaders in dairying but we are miles behind the likes of the USA..so not going to win many fights in an area where NZ is best at..


Rank
Country
Production (106 kg/y)



World
696,554


1
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/41/Flag_of_India.svg/23px-Flag_of_India.svg.png India (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India)
110,040


2
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a4/Flag_of_the_United_States.svg/23px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png United States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States)
85,859


3
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/Flag_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China.svg/23px-Flag_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China.svg.png China (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China)
40,553


4
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/Flag_of_Pakistan.svg/23px-Flag_of_Pakistan.svg.png Pakistan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan)
34,362


5
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f3/Flag_of_Russia.svg/23px-Flag_of_Russia.svg.png Russia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia)
32,562


6
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/b/ba/Flag_of_Germany.svg/23px-Flag_of_Germany.svg.png Germany (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany)
28,691


7
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/05/Flag_of_Brazil.svg/22px-Flag_of_Brazil.svg.png Brazil (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazil)
27,716


8
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c3/Flag_of_France.svg/23px-Flag_of_France.svg.png France (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France)
24,218


9
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Flag_of_New_Zealand.svg/23px-Flag_of_New_Zealand.svg.png New Zealand (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand)
15,217


10
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/ae/Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg/23px-Flag_of_the_United_Kingdom.svg.png United Kingdom (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom)
13,237


11
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/03/Flag_of_Italy.svg/23px-Flag_of_Italy.svg.png Italy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy)
12,836


12
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/Flag_of_Turkey.svg/23px-Flag_of_Turkey.svg.png Turkey (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkey)
12,542


13
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/12/Flag_of_Poland.svg/23px-Flag_of_Poland.svg.png Poland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland)
12,467


14
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/49/Flag_of_Ukraine.svg/23px-Flag_of_Ukraine.svg.png Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine)
11,610


15
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/20/Flag_of_the_Netherlands.svg/23px-Flag_of_the_Netherlands.svg.png Netherlands (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands)
11,469


16
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fc/Flag_of_Mexico.svg/23px-Flag_of_Mexico.svg.png Mexico (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico)
10,931


17
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1a/Flag_of_Argentina.svg/23px-Flag_of_Argentina.svg.png Argentina (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina)
10,500


18
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/b/b9/Flag_of_Australia.svg/23px-Flag_of_Australia.svg.png Australia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia)
9,388


19
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/cf/Flag_of_Canada.svg/23px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png Canada (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada)
8,213


20
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/9e/Flag_of_Japan.svg/23px-Flag_of_Japan.svg.png Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan)

[xafalcon]

The "big boys" asked to join in with the original group of 4 negotiating countries. With USA joining first, then Canada, then Japan

Our negotiating power was successively eroded, which was a foolish situation to allow. Should have stopped expanding at USA

Since NZ is so small in dairy (good on you Hoop for recognising this, most people don't understand this because the media spins it so differently), where is the problem? Our export volumes are a tiny drop in the worldwide bucket, but they are immensely important to NZ

This is the disappointment. It sounds like our major industry did not get anything close to the full benefit that was possible aka Tim's promised (but later retracted) gold-standard

Once the TPPA detail is released, there may be a significant swing in NZ towards cheese production if the rumors are correct

[skid]

The "big boys" asked to join in with the original group of 4 negotiating countries. With USA joining first, then Canada, then Japan

Our negotiating power was successively eroded, which was a foolish situation to allow. Should have stopped expanding at USA

Since NZ is so small in dairy (good on you Hoop for recognising this, most people don't understand this because the media spins it so differently), where is the problem? Our export volumes are a tiny drop in the worldwide bucket, but they are immensely important to NZ

This is the disappointment. It sounds like our major industry did not get anything close to the full benefit that was possible aka Tim's promised (but later retracted) gold-standard

Once the TPPA detail is released, there may be a significant swing in NZ towards cheese production if the rumors are correct

Its probably not the most popular viewpoint on an investment blog ,but Im far more concerned with having basic rights (legislation) challenged and run over in the international court. If we legislate against something that is obviously bad for the people (like smoking or the use of some of the more dangerous pesticides--will we be taken to the international court (now that we have a contract)and sued for breach of contract or loss of profits by a corp. with deep pockets?--I dont know the exact answer to that(of course because we have not seen the details of what they are negotiating) but I fear this could turn out to be a stumbling block to our ability to determine our own destiny.
We dont have much clout,thats true,but we, IMO could get along without being in this treaty at all--If it does turn out that we end up losing basic rights, the few profits will soon be forgotten.

[skid]

Meanwhile...bad news is good news ..and good news is bad news and if there is a better chance of the masters throwing more money out there (or postponing taking some away) then the share market is happy--Who cares if it doesnt make sense.

[pietrade]

We dont have much clout,thats true,but we, IMO could get along without being in this treaty at all--If it does turn out that we end up losing basic rights, the few profits will soon be forgotten.

Sadly we don't seem to have any balls either - unlike Uruguay with a population of only 3.4million
http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/09/17/uruguay-shows-way-leaving-secret-trade-deal

"Last week the Uruguayan government decided to end its involvement in the secret negotiations of the Trade in Services Agreement TISA, signifying an important victory in the global fight against bad trade deals.

TISA is a radical new deal that aims to go far beyond current trade rules and force States to further open their markets to foreign corporations, privatize public services and reduce regulations. These measures often mean job losses, less environmental protection, and less accessible healthcare and education.

Uruguay has created a blueprint for how to stop this corporate-driven agreement. It is time for other countries to follow the lead and end TISA once and for all."

Before the next election John Key will exit thru the swinging doors back into a lucrative finance 'industry' sweetheart deal.
Sadly, it seems that the the traitors are in control.
Now, where did I put that guillotine ....?

Prof. Jane Kelsey says it like it is -

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1510/S00101/national-government-betrays-nzers-in-tppa-deal.htm

[Daytr]

We may not be the biggest dairy producer, but we are by far the biggest dairy exporter as most countries pretty much consume what they produce & that is why it was so important to get free access to these markets.

Xafalcon, I bet the TPPA deal will cost a hell of a lot more than $7M per year as well.

[xafalcon]

We may not be the biggest dairy producer, but we are by far the biggest dairy exporter as most countries pretty much consume what they produce & that is why it was so important to get free access to these markets.

Xafalcon, I bet the TPPA deal will cost a hell of a lot more than $7M per year as well.

FYI USA recently exceeded NZ on dairy export volumes - go figure...... My guess from inside the industry is that Canada and japan were the problem states on dairy (always have been) and USA was simply cited as the scapegoat (since they offer so much potential to NZ trade, it's an easier concept to sell to joe public)

But yes, I completely agree with the sentiment behind your post. And that the $7M will be a "rounded-down" figure to improve public palletability

[Daytr]

Thanks Xafalcon, I hadn't seen that. Is that since Fonterra has been holding back product from the auctions in the last few months or more of a reflection of increased US production? With China & even the Mid/East investing heavily into mega farm factories our best dairy days may be behind us, although their cost of production must be relatively high. I saw pic of a mage farm in the middle of the desert in Saudi I think it was. The scale was mind blowing.

[trader_jackson]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-dow-futures-rise-more-than-100-points-2015-10-07?dist=markets

The Dow is nearing 17k and the S&P 500 is nearing 2k, although this is not record territory, things appear to be slowly coming back...

[couta1]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-dow-futures-rise-more-than-100-points-2015-10-07?dist=markets

The Dow is nearing 17k and the S&P 500 is nearing 2k, although this is not record territory, things appear to be slowly coming back... Yep and oil is down again and the chance of an interest rate rise in the US looking more unlikely in the short to medium term and the world didn't end on Oct 7th as predicted by certain groups ( If only these clowns would have a good read of the book of Revelation) so all good.

[NZSilver]

Yes, Dow had a good few trading days, back up. Interestingly some quality shares hitting lows on NZX, also ASX hasn't feared well. Very good value in some shares, however they seem to be in downtrends.

[Baa_Baa]

It's said all markets are connected, but recently one hasn't been and it's a fairly big one in the current/recent markets sentiment, China had its National Day Golden Week holiday starting Thurs 1st Oct and ending yesterday. Today Shanghai etc will re-open. The world markets seem to have enjoyed not having China around for a week, but they they're back, right on cue for the DOW/SP5 (to name a couple) who have risen up towards stern overhead price resistance. Interesting times.

[skid]

Everyone seemed to be infatuated with oil and forgot about lil ole China---Seems to be the big 3---oil--economy in general (growth esp emerging countries) and China.
it will be interesting to see how the China market does ---will it follow the other markets up? or does it operate more on its own (internal stuff) Ofcourse thats not to say it wont go up ,even if its the latter--but it does seem to be a rather ''lose cannon'' these days

Overseas markets seem to be gaining a little more confidence,but one wonders how another little scare would affect it--or are they building up a resistance to ''scares'' in general?

Whoops -forgot about the FED--since they have seemed to have poked their head back into their shell markets seemed to have calmed--might buy some more time.

[flying]

My pick is this is the last gasp of this rally in Bear 1 mode. Last two days news Japan machine order -3.5% and the German production data -1.2%. The most common pattern of all, the head and shoulders on the 2 year graph of both the Dow and S&P has just been completed. I have rearranged my portfolio for the Bear (75% chance) it seems to me it is all a matter of probabilities as except for hindsight there are no absolutes. Will the Bear be big enough to wipe out the 120 year property Bull run that my generation has set into concrete only time will tell.

[ratkin]

But the question on everyone's lips is whether this is just a standard bear market rally before a big fall, or the resumption of the bull market uptrend after a double bottom.

Everyone seems to be in the bear market camp - which makes me think maybe the bull market has some puff left in it yet (although it wont go up forever). Only time will tell - I'm still on the sidelines waiting for one trend or the other to assert itself.

How can it be a bear market rally when we are not even in a bear market

[Jantar]

How can it be a bear market rally when we are not even in a bear market
If this is a bear market then I love bears. My portfolio is worth more right now than it ever has in the past. Yes a couple of stocks are down slightly, a couple are up slightly and half of them are way up.

[couta1]

If this is a bear market then I love bears. My portfolio is worth more right now than it ever has in the past. Yes a couple of stocks are down slightly, a couple are up slightly and half of them are way up.
Yep I love bears to in fact I don't mind admitting I've got a collection of teddy bears as well as market bears.

[Beagle]

Yep I love bears to in fact I don't mind admitting I've got a collection of teddy bears as well as market bears.

Strictly for the grandkids those teddy bears right ? :)

[couta1]

Strictly for the grandkids those teddy bears right ? :)
No mate they are not allowed to touch my collector bears:cool:

[Jantar]

My Speights is particularly nice tonight. Love this Bear market :D

[trader_jackson]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-dow-futures-rise-more-than-100-points-2015-10-07?dist=markets

The Dow is nearing 17k and the S&P 500 is nearing 2k, although this is not record territory, things appear to be slowly coming back...

Well look what has happened... although NZ market doesn't seem to be bouncing as strongly as overseas (then again we didn't fall as far...)

I even saw some banter somewhere that the Dow is having its best winning streak in quite a while?

[Baa_Baa]

Well look what has happened... although NZ market doesn't seem to be bouncing as strongly as overseas (then again we didn't fall as far...)

I even saw some banter somewhere that the Dow is having its best winning streak in quite a while?

Good eh! Then, the NZX didnt fall as far either, and the US indexes are now facing stern resistance, but it's the weekend, fire up the BBQ, have a few cold ones, and we'll see whether the bear is dead soon enough, or whether it sucked in the relief rally and is about to take it all back, either way probably next week. Fascinating times.

[BlackPeter]

My Speights is particularly nice tonight. Love this Bear market :D

Just a mighty sucker rally - I am sure at some stage it will come down again;)

[skid]

For the moment it seems that whatever is happening out there has been diluted a bit for the NZ market-It seems to be in a bit of a lag both ways.
If that continues,then I suppose it is a great advantage to have,especially if it is on the down side.(more warning)

But atm it sounds like there are certainly some Kiwi investors who are doing rather well--Is it the majority?

No calamity atm (but it would be safe to say many are still on ''calamity watch'') Commodities up--many economic results down-interest rate hike most likely postponed=???

[fish]

Just a mighty sucker rally - I am sure at some stage it will come down again;)

no one can be sure
The nature of the market is that it will trend and fluctuate
Cheap oil sooner or later is highly likely to fuel industrial growth-it just takes time and a change in sentiment.
When it goes up it can do so fast so I wouldnt sell out of the market completely-you have to be in to win!
Consumers love to spend and mankind isnt going to change.
Population growth will add to demand.
You just have to be in the right stocks at the right time.

[skid]

no one can be sure
The nature of the market is that it will trend and fluctuate
Cheap oil sooner or later is highly likely to fuel industrial growth-it just takes time and a change in sentiment.
When it goes up it can do so fast so I wouldnt sell out of the market completely-you have to be in to win!
Consumers love to spend and mankind isnt going to change.
Population growth will add to demand.
You just have to be in the right stocks at the right time.

Which is why its intrieging that market seems to rise when oil price rises

[fish]

Which is why its intrieging that market seems to rise when oil price rises
I have noticed that too-suspect its usually both responding to good economic news.
A lot has been researched about the relation between oil price and economic growth and many different views.
From the long term perspective however cheap oil and resources equals more consumer spending power and increased demand therefore growth.Low interest rates assist.It just takes time for this to happen

[skid]

what I have noticed is that the market has often followed oil,and that there has not been much good economic news--of course the wild card is that the bad results seem to make the market rise as it seems more interested in easy money (delay in interest hike)than the underlying market itself.
Of course there are lots of variables ,but in terms of the economy getting back on its feet,it doesnt make logical sense--thats why im wary of the whole thing at this point. (doesnt mean that alot cant make tons of money in the meantime as long as the wheels stay on)
And as long as the market in general stays afloat (especially in NZ) then there is no reason why those invested in solid companies with in the framework of that market cant do well---But that gets much more difficult if the market turns (in NZ as well,even if there is a lag with the companies that dont have much overseas money invested)(the latter get affected quicker)
I would expect that if the market sentiment does level and rise,we will see more interest in our much better interest rates. ($kiwi)

[flying]

Is today the end of the sucker rally and the start of the decline to retest the lows? Establishing by this that it is officially a Bear 1 by not moving to a higher high in this rally. Oil is down slightly, maybe last week was a dead cat bounce? It too will retest a new bottom? Only time will tell. My pick.

[Baa_Baa]

Is today the end of the sucker rally and the start of the decline to retest the lows? Establishing by this that it is officially a Bear 1 by not moving to a higher high in this rally. Oil is down slightly, maybe last week was a dead cat bounce? It too will retest a new bottom? Only time will tell. My pick.

Questions that no one can truly answer, but don't expect NZ to lead the world markets. Currently DOW / SP futures are slightly positive: http://www.barchart.com/futures/marketoverview and keep an eye on Shanghai https://www.google.com/finance?ei=_sIaVrGiGcaP0gScyZDABA

[banter]

Is today the end of the sucker rally and the start of the decline to retest the lows?
This ten year volatility chart (http://invst.ly/5icg) suggests to me the current 'crisis' might be ending.

Big blip in 08, smaller ones in 2010, 2011, and 2015. Back in the non-crisis range now, albeit near the top of it.

If this down move is a real thing - what's it called? Subprime (or GFC), dotcom, and great sharemarket crash are all things you could explain using a crayon to the proverbial ten year old.

What's this one - the Seinfeld crisis?

[Leftfield]

Is today the end of the sucker rally and the start of the decline to retest the lows? Establishing by this that it is officially a Bear 1 by not moving to a higher high in this rally. Oil is down slightly, maybe last week was a dead cat bounce? It too will retest a new bottom? Only time will tell. My pick.

I've been picking 'Black Monday' as over for several weeks now…….time will tell if I've been right.

[skid]

This ten year volatility chart (http://invst.ly/5icg) suggests to me the current 'crisis' might be ending.

Big blip in 08, smaller ones in 2010, 2011, and 2015. Back in the non-crisis range now, albeit near the top of it.

If this down move is a real thing - what's it called? Subprime (or GFC), dotcom, and great sharemarket crash are all things you could explain using a crayon to the proverbial ten year old.

What's this one - the Seinfeld crisis?

It will be called ''the emperor has no clothes crises''

[xafalcon]

I prefer "this bull run can't possibly last any longer crisis"

[Aaron]

2. The stock market always precedes a recession, and we are in very slow growth mode (if not negative) in both the economy and corporate earnings. So this theory suggests that the long term trend will be down as the E in P/E contracts and could be facing a Bear market of indeterminate duration. This is the logical theory - but again, as the saying goes "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". :t_down:
Won't it be hard to establish P with negative interest rates? taken to its logical conclusion E will improve once borrowers start getting paid to borrow money and the sky is the limit for P once you have negative interest rates. Central banks look set to ensure the stock market never goes down. Although what happens if people give up saving?

[Snow Leopard]

You never know what 'this' is at the time - it is only when it has definitely ended and you are into the next whatever that you can specify the right name and the best course of action that could have been taken.

Meanwhile you just have to make as much, or lose as little, money as possible :p

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[skid]

Well,Monday on the Dow was'nt much help(tiny volume)
Lots of earnings out tomorrow--If they are disappointing is that good or bad (its hard to know anymore) With the fed and interest rates

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Well,Monday on the Dow was'nt much help(tiny volume)


I have had a closer eye on the Dow over the last few days.
As I understand it, Monday was a holiday in the US - Columbus Day.
The stock markets were however open.
The low volumes and minor price movements are the outcome.

[skid]

Yes,-tonight will be more of an indication (Tues for them)

I was just about to say China was one bright spot for Monday,but they are back on the wrong side of the ledger today(although nothing compared to before)
Chinese Gov head says correction there is now most likely over---Hmmmm (I wonder if they are importing Tui beer )

[skid]

looks like some of those earnings figures are not to flash--I guess most have assumed that the Fed will postpone interest rates anyway so this time its given the market a small hit--still well above the lows though

[Baa_Baa]

looks like some of those earnings figures are not to flash--I guess most have assumed that the Fed will postpone interest rates anyway so this time its given the market a small hit--still well above the lows though

Keeping an eye on the US companies reporting as well, I don't think this is about the US interest rates at the moment, more real-time real-economy news. DOW seems to be turning over and futures weaker as well. See how NZX & ASX react to it today and tomorrow, some shares looking a bit overextended on short term.

[banter]

From http://www.investing.com/analysis/that's-one-bullish-vix-267879

"Long streaks of consecutive daily VIX declines actually turns out to be a very bullish phenomenon, medium-to-longer term:
http://c3352932.r32.cf0.rackcdn.com/content/picf3ded8330ecfe8b0b1df6d6c9aae595f.png

(Source: @RyanDetrick)
Each one of these instances saw the S&P 500 (http://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500) rise over the ensuing months and in every instance, the market was higher one year later (sometimes significantly higher -- i.e 1990/91, 2003/2004).
Will it be different this time?"

As it happens, the October 2015 sequence of daily VIX falls extended to ten, ending on 10/10/15.

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=gv1;590034]

Yes I see AUD/USD now 69c ...putting AUD gold $1625 ....some analyst see AUD falling into the 50c's ....be the perfect storm if USD Gold can get some attention ...with some miners having sub 1k ASIC well see at present 30-70mill Mktcap companies having free cashflows upto 100mill p.a with 2k AUD gold

Also lower AUD should help attract international investment into profitable ASX companies

Up 65-70% in the portfolio since this post ...more to come IMHO in the ASX PM sector

[bull....]

bears must be getting nervous

[BlackPeter]

bears must be getting nervous

Why? I just love this bear run ... :t_up:

[Jantar]

Why? I just love this bear run ... :t_up:
Best bear run I have ever seen. My portfolio has increased 25% in value since May. :)

[Baa_Baa]

bears must be getting nervous

Sometimes a bulll, sometimes bear, it's just a matter of the market sentiment, as some choose to actively manage capital whereas others don't. I'm not nervous, as I don't own anything that is particularly likely to be sucked into a mainstream decline in sentiment. That said, today the NZX shook off any concern around the globals and struck out on it's own for a 48 point upside and the boards are crowing about how well the bear has served them. Interestingly the Asia bourses followed as well. Good on them is what I say, staying the course when all around there is uncertainty in the medium to short term. For my part I can't help but notice the weaker US earnings reports and down right disappointments from some US companies/markets (Walmart for example), with the knowledge that these macro events have a way of filtering through to local markets, mainly through the uber-funds that own a decent chunk of our market and push or pull at a sniff of news. Enjoy the upside, it may be a great time to take those profits. What's around the corner who knows but at this stage I'm still OK with erring on the bearish side. Imho as always, dyodd.

[Crackity]

Sometimes a bulll, sometimes bear,

and always a Romney has to be inserted into this statement surely :)

[Baa_Baa]

and always a Romney has to be inserted into this statement surely :)

Nice Crackiti, reliably dry, like a barren ewe. BAA ;)

[Crackity]

Nice Crackiti, reliably dry, like a barren ewe. BAA ;)

Thanks! I think....

[skid]

Taking the Feds interest raise out of the equation for now has certainly helped,no denying that--It is a worry though when financials are the only bright spot so far with earnings in the US (they had a pretty sweet deal even in the worst of times)

I ask 2 questions Can they continue to keep postponing the interest rate raise? (repercussions)
And if not,when is the economy (US) going to be good enough to allow it?

Meanwhile money can certainly be made(but easily lost as well) actively managing your capital(as BB mentioned) is smart IMO

[skid]

Taking the Feds interest raise out of the equation for now has certainly helped,no denying that--It is a worry though when financials are the only bright spot so far with earnings in the US (they had a pretty sweet deal even in the worst of times)

I ask 2 questions Can they continue to keep postponing the interest rate raise? (repercussions)
And if not,when is the economy (US) going to be good enough to allow it?

Until the underlying economy is strong enough to support it(rate rise),the bear will just be in hibernation

Meanwhile money can certainly be made(but easily lost as well) actively managing your capital(as BB mentioned) is smart IMO

[bull....]

Taking the Feds interest raise out of the equation for now has certainly helped,no denying that--It is a worry though when financials are the only bright spot so far with earnings in the US (they had a pretty sweet deal even in the worst of times)

I ask 2 questions Can they continue to keep postponing the interest rate raise? (repercussions)
And if not,when is the economy (US) going to be good enough to allow it?

Meanwhile money can certainly be made(but easily lost as well) actively managing your capital(as BB mentioned) is smart IMO

interest rates can stay low for ever and I believe they will go lower even maybe negative or qe4 if you like - all good medicine for the adjustment needed

[Aaron]

interest rates can stay low for ever and I believe they will go lower even maybe negative or qe4 if you like - all good medicine for the adjustment needed
Japan might be the best example interest rates near zero since 1996. 20years and counting. Apparently the Japanese govt with its massive debt can't afford a rise in interest rates. Sadly their big stockmarket crash was prior to the interest rate drop. Not sure what to do investing wise. Crazy that economic conditions and earnings are falling while share prices rise.
Not sure I agree with the last part of your statement.

[bull....]

Japan might be the best example interest rates near zero since 1996. 20years and counting. Apparently the Japanese govt with its massive debt can't afford a rise in interest rates. Sadly their big stockmarket crash was prior to the interest rate drop. Not sure what to do investing wise. Crazy that economic conditions and earnings are falling while share prices rise.
Not sure I agree with the last part of your statement.

you need to print money during a adjustment which we are going thru now to provide liquidity, as they found out during the depression without liquidity made things worse.
at the moment us dollars are becoming short supply hence why I believe they will need to start printing again to provide the liquidity

[Aaron]

you need to print money during a adjustment which we are going thru now to provide liquidity, as they found out during the depression without liquidity made things worse.
at the moment us dollars are becoming short supply hence why I believe they will need to start printing again to provide the liquidity
These things are probably beyond my understanding but how will providing cheap finance to speculators to push up asset prices help anything. Also refinancing and capitalising debt could go on indefinitely I suppose but doesn't seem right to me. You borrow money then you should pay it back. The whole idea of money is fast becoming a joke. Real estate or shares really might be the only options but the way things are going with property you will have to borrow a s**tload to get a house. Maybe I should be buying shares from savings and not worry about a crash, might be better than money in the bank unless deflation keeps up its efforts.

[Nasi Goreng]

S&P is now back at the levels that they were before this thread started. Whether we have bottomed or not is up for debate and there is plenty of that.

So who has been buying during the last 2 months? I'm quite happy to look out 5-10 years minimum so I've been buying the dip and bought the following which in most cases were top ups... ANZ, BABA, BHP, POT and SML.

[bull....]

S&P is now back at the levels that they were before this thread started. Whether we have bottomed or not is up for debate and there is plenty of that.

So who has been buying during the last 2 months? I'm quite happy to look out 5-10 years minimum so I've been buying the dip and bought the following which in most cases were top ups... ANZ, BABA, BHP, POT and SML.

I'm in full on from the lows currently running at account size + 70% margin strong conviction it was a buy the dips scenario but of course I reserve the right to change my mind at a moments notice

[Biscuit]

S&P is now back at the levels that they were before this thread started. Whether we have bottomed or not is up for debate and there is plenty of that.

So who has been buying during the last 2 months? I'm quite happy to look out 5-10 years minimum so I've been buying the dip and bought the following which in most cases were top ups... ANZ, BABA, BHP, POT and SML.

looking back, I've bought more than I've sold over the last couple of months. But I'd dropped back from being geared into the share market a few years back to 50:50 shares and cash and I'm not likely changing that until after the next crash.

[skid]

interest rates can stay low for ever and I believe they will go lower even maybe negative or qe4 if you like - all good medicine for the adjustment needed

There are plenty of reasons why that is just not true--negative or really low interest is not a good thing--Why do you think the Fed is so keen to raise them?

[bull....]

There are plenty of reasons why that is just not true--negative or really low interest is not a good thing--Why do you think the Fed is so keen to raise them?

considering most people are in debt to finance there assets or toys and only a very few people have no debt as a % of the population world wide, I think most people are rather happy to have low interest rates.

[Nasi Goreng]

considering most people are in debt to finance there assets or toys and only a very few people have no debt as a % of the population world wide, I think most people are rather happy to have low interest rates.

which makes deflation totally intolerable. If the cost of goods come down, and wages to, how is all of that debt going to get repaid? The only way is to inflate your way out of it... which means more QE and low rates.

[bull....]

which makes deflation totally intolerable. If the cost of goods come down, and wages to, how is all of that debt going to get repaid? The only way is to inflate your way out of it... which means more QE and low rates.

there's good deflation and bad deflation at the moment its good deflation so as long as they keep providing liquidity it should remain good deflation therefore wages shouldn't fall.
prices for goods should fall some because input costs of commodities have declined as well as technology changes happening will continue to drive down some goods prices all good - maybe not so for some company profits but that's the market just hope you pick the winners from the losers a

[banter]

I've sold more than I've bought but despite that have had two new equity highs since 'Black Monday'.
Sold AIAL, MRP, HBY; bought SKL, lots of AIR, some STU.
Sold then bought back TWR, HNZ, for small losses.

Would have been better off buying the above and selling nothing.

Well so far.

KW... at what point would you call this correction / bear market over? New highs?
Nice work making 14% this year BTW.

[ratkin]

KW... at what point would you call this correction / bear market over? New highs?
Nice work making 14% this year BTW.

You mean what point does he say he was wrong, and admit we were never in a bear market to start with

[BlackPeter]

You mean what point does he say he was wrong, and admit we were never in a bear market to start with

Don't tell anybody, but I met KW - and she is clearly not a "he" ... ;)

[bull....]

Most excellent read (I recommend you start at this article and read backwards, lots of good stuff to really make you think)
http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilontheory/post/2015/09/30/rounders

Interesting last article esp the first 2 paragraphs, how true - the rest quickly lost my interest

[skid]

Low Interest rates---quote of the day by Danial Kitson--''The future is not the mystery many think.It is instead the ''slowly accruing consequences of the present''

[couta1]

Bears and Black Mondays bless them all, my portfolio went from minus 19.5% to minus 12% over the last fortnight (That's 100k in dollar terms) and I sold nothing.

[skid]

so far ..so good Coutts..or not so bad.
AIR has no doubt helped immensely,which came about from a change in your portfolio so you have'nt really been doing nothing(even if it was a bit before Black Monday.)
Interest rates (fed) seems to have provided a get out of jail free card for now--Lets see how this plays out (200K to go if the markets stay rosy)

Dont know how I sleep at night with all those lost profits:):)

[Tomtom]

Low Interest rates---quote of the day by Danial Kitson--''The future is not the mystery many think.It is instead the ''slowly accruing consequences of the present'' I like that.

My own view has been that central banks have been very accommodating with ZIRP which has allowed credit growth without corresponding growth in areas of productivity. However getting out of the trap created by ZIRP when everyone is in up to their eye balls and slightly compounded by demographic and social trends will prove challenging. The most obvious way out is perhaps also the most difficult, to raise rates and allow economies to fall into recession with the hope that perhaps that internal reorganisation will drive improvements in productivity and allow some clearing/write-off processes to take place. This seems rather unpalatable however so it seems much more likely that low rates and/or ZIRP will become a more permanent fixture.

[Kaspar]

I think NZ investors got a bit unlucky as the NZ50 did not give much of a warning prior to August - whereas the ASX fell over in June giving plenty of time to get out. The ASX has a much stronger bear trend than the NZX. As I've pointed out before, all my comments on charts/trends/bear markets etc are in reference to the ASX not the NZX as I dont invest in NZ - so don't extract my market commentary on the ASX and apply it to the NZX. The Australian economy is in far deeper excrement than the NZ one.

Hi KW, just out of interest...how come you don't invest in the NZ market?

[JBmurc]

I doubt if many people's portfolios are worth more now than they were at the beginning of June.....

My portfolio is higher now than anytime in the last 2yrs ..... But then I've been focused on the ASX micro-jnr Resource sectors

[Jantar]

......
Most people on here are crowing that their portfolio is worth more now than in August - but that is not the valid time comparison. The time to have sold was in June (as I did), and I doubt if many people's portfolios are worth more now than they were at the beginning of June......
Fair comment. My portfolio did reach a high point on 31st May. It is now worth more than it was then. Only 2 stocks are still in negative territory. HNZ by almost exactly the brokerage fees, and PGW that is well down and showing signs of recovering. So overall I would be happy to say that It has been no more than a market correction as a result of bad overseas news. But Solid New Zealand companies are continuing to perform well, so are still in demand.

[Leftfield]

The last few months have shown that NZX is a different animal to (say) ASX or DOW. Sure we are influenced by what happens in China etc., however the reality is that many of our companies are now much more well diversified than in the past, with strong international links and markets. Add to that the depth of local investing via the Super Fund, Kiwi Saver etc, add in some of the recent Free Trade agreements and our stock exchange is proving to be a bit more resilient than it has been.

So Black Monday….. maybe it was, and maybe the latest rise is a simply dead cat bounce….. but just maybe, the fundamentals of good NZ stocks are sufficient for them to stand proud. Time will tell.

[Arbroath]

Fair comment. My portfolio did reach a high point on 31st May. It is now worth more than it was then. Only 2 stocks are still in negative territory. HNZ by almost exactly the brokerage fees, and PGW that is well down and showing signs of recovering. So overall I would be happy to say that It has been no more than a market correction as a result of bad overseas news. But Solid New Zealand companies are continuing to perform well, so are still in demand.

I agree Jantar. My portfolio is up 7% the last 3 months against a flat index performance. 9 stocks 7 of which are in the Top50. Pretty happy with conservatively geared high yielding NZ companies. Also own HNZ. Very happy with Trademe performance as they demonstrate the underlying strength of their business.

[skid]

The last few months have shown that NZX is a different animal to (say) ASX or DOW. Sure we are influenced by what happens in China etc., however the reality is that many of our companies are now much more well diversified than in the past, with strong international links and markets. Add to that the depth of local investing via the Super Fund, Kiwi Saver etc, add in some of the recent Free Trade agreements and our stock exchange is proving to be a bit more resilient than it has been.

So Black Monday….. maybe it was, and maybe the latest rise is a simply dead cat bounce….. but just maybe, the fundamentals of good NZ stocks are sufficient for them to stand proud. Time will tell.

I think you are right up to a point.NZX has fared pretty well as many have testified,but there is no question that markets influence each other (Globalization) and tiny NZ ,no matter how well placed locally would not escape--There has been a lag between NZ and the other markets (pretty much) and things have certainly improved before things ''caught up'' with little ole NZ,but I think that it is unrealistic to think NZ would sail through a storm on its own--they wouldnt survive a dead cat bounce scenario without blood--good to have a plan for when it happens as someday,month,or year,it surly will.
Its a nuisance to not only have to research your own companies of choice but at the same time keep an eye on the outside scenario ,but I believe it is a necessary tool for survival.

[skid]

In the number of shares I have glanced at (charts)Ive noticed that they have all jumped since the start of October,after having dropped before(so maybe NZ is not so insulated from the world markets after all?)

[Kaspar]

Because I've spent most of the last 15 years in Australia and have lost touch with the NZ market
Because I'm on a 4 year tax holiday for all foreign derived income :t_up:
Because it takes a lot of work to follow a market and look for opportunities within it, and there are simply not enough opportunities in NZ for me to bother. There are not all that many in Australia even, which is why I need to get off my ass and get into the US market.

Sweet. Do you think you will invest in NZ at some point though? Juicy dividends with imputation credits might be tempting at a later stage in life :)

[Baa_Baa]

With the US markets right on massive resistance it will be interesting to see how their open and day progresses, with Asia markets today sideways-down-a-bit and DOW/SP5 futures looking sideways as well (at the time of posting this), it seems uncertainty is the sentiment de jour. You'd be excused for wondering about that, as the media seems intent on downplaying weakness in the global economy's, however it's not about the media per se is it, you don't see the media disclosing their investment position .. because they don't have one. Tomorrow we may well see whether our local NZX and ASX confidence is well placed, or whether the apparent short term topping process follows through.

[BeeBop]

Because I've spent most of the last 15 years in Australia and have lost touch with the NZ market
Because I'm on a 4 year tax holiday for all foreign derived income :t_up:
Because it takes a lot of work to follow a market and look for opportunities within it, and there are simply not enough opportunities in NZ for me to bother. There are not all that many in Australia even, which is why I need to get off my ass and get into the US market.

KW - the UK market is really very good..I invest in NZ, UK and US with the majority of my current holdings in the UK - good enough yields and good information available. I spent a lot of time out of the NZ market but got back in just prior to the recovery, sold out a lot in Nov 2013 and then began buying again. It is really easy to follow the NZ market, the biggest problem is that it is so slow and small!

[sb9]

NZ stock market must be the best performing globally atm, another strong day and inching close to 5900 mark...

[bull....]

JPMorgan: The Stock Market Still Has $90 Billion in Short Sales Left to Cover

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-20/jpmorgan-sees-90-billion-of-short-covering-left-in-u-s-stocks

[Leftfield]

JPMorgan: The Stock Market Still Has $90 Billion in Short Sales Left to Cover

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-20/jpmorgan-sees-90-billion-of-short-covering-left-in-u-s-stocks

Thanks for posting Bull….. it used to be that "when Wall Street Sneezes, NZ catches a cold."

I'm not sure if that is still the case. What is currently driving US markets is the Fed and its interest policies, plus struggling Energy, Resources and Banking stocks. I suspect that if the US sneezes we will sneeze too, but I suspect our NZX is gaining some immunity to catching colds like we used to. Time will tell.

[banter]

So when is Black Monday over? For the NZ market, that is.

1) When this thread makes it to page 2, which it did - check
2) When the biggest bear on the board (and she knows who she is) says it is.

[winner69]

The more an investor blocks out the world and retreats into his own ideological biases, the worse off he becomes.

From Mauldin's Outside the Box this week - haven't read it but his seemed to be relevant

[Baa_Baa]

The more an investor blocks out the world and retreats into his own ideological biases, the worse off he becomes.

From Mauldin's Outside the Box this week - haven't read it but his seemed to be relevant

While it's going great guns in NZ, Aus is still hurting, China is bouncing along sideways due to government support, US has stalled at massive price resistance levels. What's going on? Uncertainty. I thought this was an interesting and brief read: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=4938D89A-B0CB-8A26-8566DA886CAF6DE5&utm_source=Trending+on+Livewire+%22The+Morning+Wir e%22&utm_campaign=e8b04fa9b2-Trending+on+Livewire&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1911ffeed5-e8b04fa9b2-82649325&mc_cid=e8b04fa9b2&mc_eid=2708549ebc

[skid]

sounds like an interesting article--The ''getting to emotionally attached'' seems to be the biggest test for most--Staying detached is best ,but not always easy ,especially for those who have put in alot of research--It becomes their ''baby''which is understandable,but can be dangerous.Of course it works both ways and I suppose one can be too cautious.
Having said that --One who takes a large risk ,and wins,does not necessarily mean that taking large risks is the best option in general.
The ''feel'' of things at this point seem to be a move away from the high risk,spec. shares ,into more dividend paying stocks with safer numbers on the books.

[kiora]

While it's going great guns in NZ, Aus is still hurting, China is bouncing along sideways due to government support, US has stalled at massive price resistance levels. What's going on? Uncertainty. I thought this was an interesting and brief read: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=4938D89A-B0CB-8A26-8566DA886CAF6DE5&utm_source=Trending+on+Livewire+%22The+Morning+Wir e%22&utm_campaign=e8b04fa9b2-Trending+on+Livewire&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1911ffeed5-e8b04fa9b2-82649325&mc_cid=e8b04fa9b2&mc_eid=2708549ebc

Ah the old saying of climbing the wall of worry.
"Such bearishness is an ideal platform for positive returns in the year ahead"
Who knows ,next week/month it may be different.I take heart that so many have cashed up & still worrying.

[skid]

While it's going great guns in NZ, Aus is still hurting, China is bouncing along sideways due to government support, US has stalled at massive price resistance levels. What's going on? Uncertainty. I thought this was an interesting and brief read: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=4938D89A-B0CB-8A26-8566DA886CAF6DE5&utm_source=Trending+on+Livewire+%22The+Morning+Wir e%22&utm_campaign=e8b04fa9b2-Trending+on+Livewire&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1911ffeed5-e8b04fa9b2-82649325&mc_cid=e8b04fa9b2&mc_eid=2708549ebc

Interesting article--All those Buffett quotes may be a thing of the past,if ''peak buffett''plays out--Its easy to miss in this cosey little NZX how uncertain things are out there atm..

[banter]

Green light for the NZ market flashed on the 15th October. So as always, when the market changes, you change.
Agree with both. I'm also wary of global markets, but maintain certain NZ stocks are cheap.

Ten up days in a row here BTW (if today holds).

[bull....]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/european-central-bank-keeps-rates-at-record-lows.html

more stimulus December possible

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/stocks-open-higher-on-draghi-remarks-us-data.html

earnings surprises

everything pointing to new highs coming , there are a lot of fund managers under invested in nz and aus with huge cash piles so they will have to invest otherwise they will underperform there benchmarks so this should underpin the markets.

[sb9]

Dow had another big jump, may be we see the magic 6000 mark soon on NZX.

[winner69]

Dow had another big jump, may be we see the magic 6000 mark soon on NZX.

You should look at this (esp 6 months chart)

https://www.google.com/finance?cid=6551978

Getting back to where we were a while ago ......but don't look at the MAX chart

[freddagg]

So was it just an acorn then?

[allfromacell]

We just pushed into a new all time high, the bull market looks healthy to me.

[Baa_Baa]

US market seems to have got it's mojo back as well, the DOW push up through the 200EMA and the immediate price resistance will embolden the local markets. Still plenty of hurdles ahead for US markets but the bear is currently licking its wounds.

[sb9]

It was a show put up by all techno giants, Microsoft, Google and Amazon reporting strong earnings.

[banter]

New all-time high today of 5971, surpassing 5939 on 5/8/15.

[Tomtom]

It was a show put up by all techno giants, Microsoft, Google and Amazon reporting strong earnings. U.S. companies do seem to be doing well but there was no reason to expect otherwise. It’s interesting to reflect that one of the most dominant features of the last two centuries has been an increasing divergence between the ‘developing’ world and the 'developed' world (measured by GDP per capita). In a way the aberration has been the last decade and a half in which developing countries have experienced higher growth rates than developed countries so briefly appeared although they were on a converging path with the developed world. However growth rates are not persistent and it appears the global situation is normalising with economies regressing towards the long term mean growth rates. That’s why it really interests people like me that many have come to see developing countries as a better bet than using resources in developed economies which have an extended track record of outperforming. We should expect companies in the developed world to outperform over an extended timeframe.

[winner69]

New all-time high today of 5971, surpassing 5939 on 5/8/15.

NZ50 Capital Index still 10% off its 2007 high

And 3% off its 52 week high as well

[trader_jackson]

NZ50 Capital Index still 10% off its all time high

And 3% off its 52 week high as well

If we include the 1980's we have a long long way to go for things to crack 3.9k on the capital index (I think this is what the index hit back before the crash in 1987?)

I think today's capital index won't go up 10%, but could go up before the end of the year a little more than 3%

[trader_jackson]

Ladies and Gentlemen, today is the day we could pass the magic 6000 mark!

[BlackPeter]

Ladies and Gentlemen, today is the day we could pass the magic 6000 mark!

Are you sure you are posting this in the right thread? Its called "Black Monday" after all ... some bad news please ...;)

[IAK]

An interesting article on Stuff yesterday "Buy in gloom, not boom" http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/73345487/buy-in-gloom-not-boom-for-investment-success
Hopefully, the bear is still in hibernation.

[sb9]

We've just hit the 6000 mark....

[winner69]

We've just hit the 6000 mark....

What do we do know?

[sb9]

What do we do know?

Depends which side of fence you're on, bit tensed if you're a bear and twisting a can of beer if you're a bull...

[Baa_Baa]

Are you sure you are posting this in the right thread? Its called "Black Monday" after all ... some bad news please ...;)

Black Monday is over, dead, kaput - technically anyway.

NZX powered to a new high closing 6001 today ... woo hoo, never mind the rest of the world, who cares about them. Maybe world peace is about to break out, or all nations sovereign debt will be forgiven, or something profound like that. US stocks pausing ominously (futures down a bit), China down a bit as well tracking sideways, Europe same, Aus same .. all just background noise. Nothing to see there, move along.

Black Monday RIP. It's all upside from here, NZX leads the world. Cough. :sleep:

[Crackity]

Black Monday is over, dead, kaput - technically anyway.

NZX powered to a new high closing 6001 today ... woo hoo, never mind the rest of the world, who cares about them. Maybe world peace is about to break out, or all nations sovereign debt will be forgiven, or something profound like that. US stocks pausing ominously (futures down a bit), China down a bit as well tracking sideways, Europe same, Aus same .. all just background noise. Nothing to see there, move along.

Black Monday RIP. It's all upside from here, NZX leads the world. Cough. :sleep:

Anyone feel like starting the Golden Wednesday thread? :)

[trader_jackson]

Black Monday is over, dead, kaput - technically anyway.

NZX powered to a new high closing 6001 today ... woo hoo, never mind the rest of the world, who cares about them. Maybe world peace is about to break out, or all nations sovereign debt will be forgiven, or something profound like that. US stocks pausing ominously (futures down a bit), China down a bit as well tracking sideways, Europe same, Aus same .. all just background noise. Nothing to see there, move along.

Black Monday RIP. It's all upside from here, NZX leads the world. Cough. :sleep:

NZX is simply 'leading the charge'...

From a fundamental view point (ie not looking at day to day fluctuations in the markets but trends) the Eurozone area is recovering well, Britain has been recovering well for a year or so now, US earnings have so far (on the whole) been stronger than expected (not the massive drop that some people were expecting), China GDP was a bit stronger than expected (although admittedly China is probably 'the worst of the lot' right now), and Australia is 'cooling' but still not expected to 'plunge' into recession.

So all this 'doom, gloom' 'the worlds falling apart' bla bla has, given the fundamentals, faded away, everyone has come back to reality and realized things aren't terrible. But just simply not as strong as they may have been in recent times, but still 'solid' and moving forward none the less.

On another note, Australian banking results coming out (mostly) over the course of the rest of the week which should be very interesting to see how Australia has been going in the past year and the outlook commentary etc (see if things are really as bad as some people are making it out to be in Aussie)

[couta1]

Couta's portfolio has officially declared black monday over now that it's gone from minus 19% to stunning minus 9% odd today, the bears have retreated back into their caves minus a few teeth and claws ( Like I was saying a while back couldn't really see what all the fuss was about anyways) :cool:

[banter]

Are you sure you are posting this in the right thread? Its called "Black Monday" after all ... some bad news please ...;)

Here you go. (http://recessionalert.com/the-sp-500-200-day-average-kiss-of-death/)

Since 1973, the S&P has breached the 200 MA, having been above it for at least the previous 100 days, on 13 occasions.

Now is the 13th time.

Each time it has retested the 200MA, as it is doing right now. And each time, the breakout has failed, with an average drop of 20% (http://recessionalert.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2015-10-22_2032.png) following, +/- 16%.

All a bit strained. My guess is things are OK...

But there is a good looking recession and 'when to get out' predictor in the same article. Maybe in a year or two.

(http://recessionalert.com/the-sp-500-200-day-average-kiss-of-death/)

[skid]

Lets face it...The Fed is never going to satisfy both the share market and the need to raise interest rates--sooner or later they will bite the bullet and raise them ,no matter how much us spoiled kids (shares)scream and throw our toys out of the cot.

[BlackCross]

Bit of 'Black Thursday' from Albert and cut from FTAlphaville. "The global economy will be thrown into chaos."

The deeply held wish of central bankers not to de-rail the fragile economic recovery is on
display for all to see as they grasp at the slightest excuse for their continued inaction. The
UK’s central bank governor, Mark Carney, exceeded all dovish expectations recently in his
latest rate flip-floppery. But what is this? The Fed has finally summoned up its courage and
looks set to raise rates next month. It is, however, already too late. Having delayed way
beyond the point when it might typically have raised rates in previous cycles, it has allowed an
Orc-like monster to incubate, hatch and emerge into the sunlight, snarling and ready to do
battle. Free Fed money has led to an unprecedented corporate credit binge of excess
spending, especially on share buybacks. This is even bigger than it was at the time of the
2000 technology and telecom bubble. The rotten fruit of the Fed’s seemingly innocuous
inaction will now be clear to onlookers as it is ripped to shreds on the battlefield by the
powerful credit monster. The global economy will be thrown into chaos.




This feels all so familiar. Almost no-one believes that this cycle will end badly. Central
bankers have successfully blamed the disastrous 2008 Global Financial Crisis on everybody
else except themselves. The markets have fallen for this self-serving nonsense and feel
comforted that the central banks have put in place better regulations, bigger capital buffers
and stronger fire breaks to prevent everyone else’s mistakes. But they miss the critical
point. Monetary policy remained too loose for too long in the noughties and allowed a credit
bubble to take hold which blew up in their complacent faces when they tried to normalise
interest rates. All the other actors the central bankers blame for the debacle regulators,
governments, bankers and even borrowers had only walk-on parts. Using bottom-up
company data my colleague, Andrew Lapthorne, has highlighted that this time around
loose money has put the US corporate sector centre stage in a Vortex of Debility (see chart
below). The Fed’s bubble blowing will only make a bad deflationary situation far, far worse!


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2015/11/Screen-Shot-2015-11-12-at-11.14.23.png

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2015-11-12/

[Hoop]

Hmmm..Europe started a rot last night..Wall St carried it on and broke some technical support as well..It ended a huge rally up some~13% off what looked like a bullish double bottom.

..but...
the rally ended with a lower high...so the 4 month down trend continues on Wall St :p....we have Friday still to go, so what will the European/Americian investors do with these broken technicals?..

NZX is treating today (Friday) trading behaviour as a "she'll be right mate...no worrries" cum Monday..If I was short term trading NZX stuff, I don't know if I would want to stay "in" over this weekend

[Hoop]

whoops................I posted too soon..AORDS just tanked at opening and NZX is responding as I type....

[skid]

I believe its locked in for December now. The big question is whether we start the second leg of the bear market, or will the markets just shrug it off this time?

Could be they shrug until a small catalyst comes along to set things going, a bit like the demonstration of something ''supersaturated'' back in chemistry class--you heat water until it dissolves more sugar than the normal saturation point (to keep it a liquid)--let it cool-(remains a liquid)-then one small tink and it instantly turns to sugar crystal.
Of course the next question is if things start to slide will they fall back on another cut to interest or QE(If only Greenspan(the God)knew what he was starting back in the day!)

[Hoop]

And its Friday the 13th - how bad can this get? Enough to start a new Black Friday thread? :eek2: :scared:

Oh dear so it is.....damm!!

Oh well..I guess we can give Sheeple and Nervious Nellies a reprieve this time and instead blame the demons and the ghouls for taking fright and creating the next wave down