Black Monday

[Cyclical]

That really sounds like a bloody awful holiday to me, but each to their own.
Agreed, but a fair good chunk of Kiwis go there just for those types of reasons. I know people of the oposite gender that love going there with an empty suitcase to cater for their shopping fix...not uncommon apparently...that would be a net negative for NZ clothes stores right there.

[Old mate]

I think it will be quite negative for the regions of NZ to next summer. There's been a lot of talk about kiwis supporting NZ tourism and businesses. It will be interesting to see how the support goes now there is a choice.

[Habits]

Aside from skiing, how many ozzie's are going to come to nz in winter for a holiday?

Wonder what percentage of aussies have been to nz. Most kiwis been there more than once

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yeah nah, no one's really answered Old mate's question. What does NZ have to attract Aussies in great numbers over the winter months, other than skiing (start praying for a great season)? I guess there will be those that need to catch up with family and friends, but otherwise there's not a lot. Business travel is still likely to be virtually non existent. Kiwis to Oz on the other hand, you've got warmer climes, shopping, theme parks and big cities to explore etc. Anyway, it's a great start and long may it last!

Why do you not understand the simple fact that the large majority of Aussies (like other international visitors) travelling here for holidays don't come for skiing? it was like this before covid, and it will be the same now, except now NZ is the only international destination available to Australians, vastly increasing interest. Just because you cant see past skiing as a reason to travel doesn't mean the rest of the world has the same issue.

[Tomtom]

With governments starting to get serious about emissions targets I can't help but think time is limited for New Zealand tourism anyway. The industry is built on tax free jet fuel.

Interesting to see that Berkshire Hathaway substantially sold down holdings in airlines, fossil energy (and banks) in its latest filing.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

With governments starting to get serious about emissions targets I can't help but think time is limited for New Zealand tourism anyway. The industry is built on tax free jet fuel.

Interesting to see that Berkshire Hathaway substantially sold down holdings in airlines, fossil energy (and banks) in its latest filing.

One of the largest new acquisitions for Berkshire Hathaway this year is Chevron, very much a fossil energy company.

I don't think tourism is going to be impacted by climate change commissions - there are already several solutions to deal with it in both the short term (offsetting carbon credits, bio-blending jet fuel) and long term (all-EV jet liners, 100% Bio-Jet Fuel).

[Panda-NZ-]

FPH driving down the market today. It would be nice if it could finally break out of that $32 level its been at for 10-12 months.

[bull....]

Rally accelerates with Dow climbing 400 points to an all-time high, S&P 500 jumping 1.5%


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/04/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

nasdaq correction looks finished

nasdaq at new highs last night , april living up so far to a good month for stocks. best asset class returns this year are still crypto and weed continuing on the theme from late last year.

[Habits]

nasdaq at new highs last night , april living up so far to a good month for stocks. best asset class returns this year are still crypto and weed continuing on the theme from late last year.

US march retail sales figures due this week.... expected to be strong

[Bobdn]

nasdaq at new highs last night , april living up so far to a good month for stocks. best asset class returns this year are still crypto and weed continuing on the theme from late last year.

Tom Lee predicted April would be a "face ripper" of a rally, he's right as usual (not to jinx it)

I'm on auto-pilot until we reach 4400 on the S&P500 (and whatever that translates to on USF.NZX). That's Marko Kolanovic's prediction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/jpmorgans-kolanovic-sees-earnings-growth-powering-sp-500-higher.html

It feels like everyone is all in now. I should take some chips off the table but I don't want to. I've always left the party early and regretted it. Just a few more drinks and then I'll leave...maybe. I don't know. I wish I had the strength to just check in on markets once every couple of years. Would make things a lot easier.

PS, I should add that Tony Dwyer on Fast Money recommended taking a little bit of profit here. Tony Dwyer, Tom Lee, and Marko Kolanovic have made plenty of people money over the last 12 months with their calls.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/04/13/time-to-take-some-profits-says-canaccords-tony-dwyer-who-downgrades-market-ahead-of-earnings.html

[Jiggs]

Richard Prebble pointed out in the Herald today that the NZ economy is in a state of galloping inflation due to quantitative easing and he noted "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment".

And on the timing of this collapse....."In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could".

So do I build up supplies of ready cash to buy dirt cheap utilities shares when the NZX crashes? Or do I buy as many overseas shares as I can now, so I can sell them when the NZ dollar suddenly devalues? What overseas shares? Would MLT.NZ be OK?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/richard-prebble-it-is-social-credit-and-it-will-ruin-us/QWBXAAQPDKUQSTB3E56CVLBT74/?fbclid=IwAR3_LrJfqL3Pa4rK3bDmvOF3Zljt5-9oGlCmScVRO4vNjbcaVL2zE88hx4w

[bull....]

Richard Prebble pointed out in the Herald today that the NZ economy is in a state of galloping inflation due to quantitative easing and he noted "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment".

And on the timing of this collapse....."In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could".

So do I build up supplies of ready cash to buy dirt cheap utilities shares when the NZX crashes? Or do I buy as many overseas shares as I can now, so I can sell them when the NZ dollar suddenly devalues? What overseas shares? Would MLT.NZ be OK?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/richard-prebble-it-is-social-credit-and-it-will-ruin-us/QWBXAAQPDKUQSTB3E56CVLBT74/?fbclid=IwAR3_LrJfqL3Pa4rK3bDmvOF3Zljt5-9oGlCmScVRO4vNjbcaVL2zE88hx4w

nzx not going to crash unless wall st crashes as it has been all thru history so buying overseas shares to avoid a crash in nz is very unlikely to help you

[Hoop]

Crashes are rare...media reciting crashes are common

[Bobdn]

Crashes are rare...media reciting crashes are common

Yes, rare. This video, from PensionCraft, sets out just how rare they are:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la-zdPUcmUQ

[bull....]

Tom Lee predicted April would be a "face ripper" of a rally, he's right as usual (not to jinx it)

I'm on auto-pilot until we reach 4400 on the S&P500 (and whatever that translates to on USF.NZX). That's Marko Kolanovic's prediction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/jpmorgans-kolanovic-sees-earnings-growth-powering-sp-500-higher.html

It feels like everyone is all in now. I should take some chips off the table but I don't want to. I've always left the party early and regretted it. Just a few more drinks and then I'll leave...maybe. I don't know. I wish I had the strength to just check in on markets once every couple of years. Would make things a lot easier.

PS, I should add that Tony Dwyer on Fast Money recommended taking a little bit of profit here. Tony Dwyer, Tom Lee, and Marko Kolanovic have made plenty of people money over the last 12 months with their calls.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/04/13/time-to-take-some-profits-says-canaccords-tony-dwyer-who-downgrades-market-ahead-of-earnings.html

i find rick rieder ( blackrock ) and geoff gundlach ( doubleline ) as well as the people you mentioned all worth a listen too. some smart people on cnbc for sure

[bull....]

coinbase listing shortly

Here’s what Coinbase is and how to use it to buy and sell cryptocurrencies
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/what-is-coinbase-how-to-use-it.html

even if you dont invest in cypto's understanding the whole digital space would benefit you as its the future and highly likely to make traditonal banks the next big disrupted space eg digital wallets etc

[Bobdn]

i find rick rieder ( blackrock ) and geoff gundlach ( doubleline ) as well as the people you mentioned all worth a listen too. some smart people on cnbc for sure

Yeah for sure. Rick Rieder and Gundlach are great. Interesting that Reider is holding more cash right now than he has in the past. I'm really conflicted now with Tom Lee, Kolonovic on one side and Tony Dwyer, Mike Wilson and Reider slightly on the other. All think we're in a bull market but the last three think it's time for a pause. I certainly get my money's worth with my Sky subscription with CNBC. Drinking coffee and watching Closing Bell is the highlight of my day. My life is pretty boring.

[bull....]

Yeah for sure. Rick Rieder and Gundlach are great. Interesting that Reider is holding more cash right now than he has in the past. I'm really conflicted now with Tom Lee, Kolonovic on one side and Tony Dwyer, Mike Wilson and Reider slightly on the other. All think we're in a bull market but the last three think it's time for a pause. I certainly get my money's worth with my Sky subscription with CNBC. Drinking coffee and watching Closing Bell is the highlight of my day. My life is pretty boring.

think the over riding conclusion for me is as long as the fed keep doing there monthly cash printing and the stimulus is still flowing all should be good. now i just got to work out when the printing stops? lol

[bull....]

US markets going good again , europe markets at new highs last night.

Jamie Dimon says U.S. consumers are ‘coiled, ready to go’ with $2 trillion more in checking accounts


“What happened is, the consumer has so much money, they’re paying down their credit card loans, which is good,” Dimon said. “Their balance sheet is in excellent, outstanding shape – coiled, ready to go and they’re starting to spend money. Consumers have $2 trillion in more cash in their checking accounts than they had before Covid.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/jamie-dimon-says-us-consumers-are-coiled-ready-to-go-with-2-trillion-more-in-checking-accounts.html

hmmm wonder if its the same in NZ


ECONOMY (https://www.cnbc.com/economy/)Retail sales explode in March as consumers use stimulus checks to spend heavily
Retail sales boomed 9.8% higher in March thanks to a jump in spending at bars and restaurants as well as multiple other groups.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/us-retail-sales-march-2021.html

[Biscuit]

US markets going good again , europe markets at new highs last night.

Jamie Dimon says U.S. consumers are ‘coiled, ready to go’ with $2 trillion more in checking accounts


“What happened is, the consumer has so much money, they’re paying down their credit card loans, which is good,” Dimon said. “Their balance sheet is in excellent, outstanding shape – coiled, ready to go and they’re starting to spend money. Consumers have $2 trillion in more cash in their checking accounts than they had before Covid.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/jamie-dimon-says-us-consumers-are-coiled-ready-to-go-with-2-trillion-more-in-checking-accounts.html

hmmm wonder if its the same in NZ


ECONOMY (https://www.cnbc.com/economy/)Retail sales explode in March as consumers use stimulus checks to spend heavily


Retail sales boomed 9.8% higher in March thanks to a jump in spending at bars and restaurants as well as multiple other groups.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/us-retail-sales-march-2021.html


As said before, this can not end well.

[winner69]

This is the deli in New Jersey that is currently trading at a $100 million market cap under HWIN

They have one store and $35k in annual sales


Cool

[Hoop]

This is the deli in New Jersey that is currently trading at a $100 million market cap under HWIN

They have one store and $35k in annual sales


Cool

Watching Jeremy Grantham interview recorded on Jan 23rd 2021 (38 minutes) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w). He is 82 years old and still working as Boston's GMO's chief investment strategist..The interview covers many areas..He believes green investment will attract increasing amount of money from other investing areas as the years go by..
He believed the market was in an epic bubble waiting to burst. The euphoria is the sign of the market at its limits as all investors have spent everything to get into the market and can't contribute more to sustain the market. What causes the crash is the change of investors attitude away from being euphoric..He thinks the next crash will rival 1929, 2000 and take years to regain the losses as they have done throughout history..

[bull....]

dodge coin on fire. this value play lol has been under - rated by the market for a long time. even my uni son brought it in the cents as a laugh with his friends. guess they are laughing now.
dont worry the fed has our backs and in this current environment the biggest gamblers are the most rewarded.

[Habits]

Golden rather than Black Monday news

"the stock market rally to continue throughout 2021. Why?

1 Pent-up economic demand will fuel consumer spending as the COVID-19 vaccine gives people a semblance of normalcy.

2 The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index surged to 109.7 in March up from 90.4 in February.

3 ISM manufacturing reported that the Atlanta Fed raised its first quarter GDP estimate to a 6% annual pace, up from its previous 4.7% estimated annual growth rate.

4 ADP announced that private payrolls soared 517,000 in March, the biggest monthly gain in six months.Stocks historically do well the year after a presidential election.

These are just four factors that have formed my opinion that there's no limit to the potential upside for the market in 2021."

Louis Navellier

[Balance]

Plenty of doomsday & exuberance articles & opinions out there from the ‘experts’ - take your pick really to play to whatever sentiment & emotion you choose to follow!

For me, focus on the big picture.

[bull....]

dodge on fire still this morning up to 42 odd a little while ago, probably money from other coins / crypto,s moved into dodge after the flash crashes on the weekend. anyway it never pays to be too greedy in cypto land you never know really how long it last.

Dogecoin Eclipses XRP as 4th Largest Cryptocurrency Ahead of ‘Dogeday’

https://www.coindesk.com/dogecoin-eclipses-xrp-dogeday

[Hoop]

dodge coin on fire. this value play lol has been under - rated by the market for a long time. even my uni son brought it in the cents as a laugh with his friends. guess they are laughing now.
dont worry the fed has our backs and in this current environment the biggest gamblers are the most rewarded.

My son cashed in last week..Got $15,000 off a $2,000 quick-fire investment...I jealous, maybe he should teach me how to invest..

[peat]

My son cashed in last week..Got $15,000 off a $2,000 quick-fire investment...I jealous, maybe he should teach me how to invest..

but he will think its easy and probably try again with a different result?

who knows - but crypto is making fools of us all.

when the brown flies around though I'd still rather have HLG than BTC.

[thebusinessman]

My son cashed in last week..Got $15,000 off a $2,000 quick-fire investment...I jealous, maybe he should teach me how to invest..

No, he could teach you how to speculate... and you could teach him how to invest.

However, for the young person's game, I can understand why speculation appeals. Biggest gains as fast as possible to get you ahead of the pack will never come from the NZX50. And you're young enough to weather some early hits betting wrong.

[bull....]

My son cashed in last week..Got $15,000 off a $2,000 quick-fire investment...I jealous, maybe he should teach me how to invest..

well done to your son. It seems to me the new way of investing for young people these days is meme investing. chasing what ever the coolest thing is according to there friends and message boards etc ... maybe ?

[ynot]

well done to your son. It seems to me the new way of investing for young people these days is meme investing. chasing what ever the coolest thing is according to there friends and message boards etc ... maybe ?

Investing, not really, gambling more like.

[winner69]

Investing, not really, gambling more like.

‘Investing’ is a ‘gamble’ as well ..... isn’t it .......maybe more respectable but still gambling

[kiora]

‘Investing’ is a ‘gamble’ as well ..... isn’t it .......maybe more respectable but still gambling

Risk versus reward. You be the judge

https://sorted.org.nz/guides/saving-and-investing/investing-basics/

"When it comes to investing, there are some key fundamentals. Think of these basics of investing as a cycle to come back to repeatedly. To be successful investors, we’ll need to:

Be clear and realistic about what we want to achieve
Think about financial goals, like saving for a car, buying a house or saving for retirement. It helps to ask, ‘What goal will investing help me achieve?’

We can set our investing goals in the short term (1–3 years), medium term (4–9 years) or long term (10 years plus). Writing them down as “I will have $X in X months’ time for X” can help set a target to aim for.

Then we can invest in a way that can help us reach those goals.

Research, compare and review choices
We need to do our homework, or get a professional to do it for us. Or both!

There are so many choices to make – such as whether to invest in professionally managed funds such as KiwiSaver or to take more of a DIY (do-it-yourself) direct approach. Then there are the many kinds of investments to choose from, such as bank deposits, bonds, property or shares.

While studying the options for investing, keep in mind that looking at past results is not a reliable way of predicting what the future will bring.

Find the right balance between risk and return
The greater the returns we chase, the more risk we have to be prepared to accept. In the short term, higher-risk investments tend to be more of a roller coaster. Yet over the long term, they can typically come out with better results.

A great place to start is to find out your investor type, which gauges your attitude toward risk and how well you can handle any ups and downs or possible losses. To find out, answer the nine questions in Sorted's investor kickstarter.

That way you can base your investment decisions on your attitude toward risk.

Find the right mix of investments
You need to find a mix of investments (what experts call ‘asset allocation’) to match your investor type. Look at typical mixes of shares, property, bonds and cash for each investor profile in the kickstarter results.

Specific mixes of investments lead to different results, and the investor kickstarter also gives you an idea of what to expect.

Not put all our eggs in one basket
A good way to reduce the risks we take is to spread our money within a given kind of investments (what experts call ‘diversifying’). So when investing in shares, for example, instead of buying part of just one company (a ‘share’), we can buy shares in different companies, a variety of industries and even different countries.

While some investments will do badly, others will do well. Spreading investments in this way helps to smooth out the ups and downs in value that happen, and helps protect us from losing money.

Understand how investments grow and compound over time
Keeping your whole financial situation in mind (for example, paying down your mortgage may get you ahead and improve your net worth faster than investing), starting investing early helps. The longer the timeframe, the more the value of investments can compound upwards and grow.

Regularly adding to investments can greatly improve the results. If you regularly reinvest your returns or constantly drip feed more money into your fund, you will see the highest growth."

[Bobdn]

‘Investing’ is a ‘gamble’ as well ..... isn’t it .......maybe more respectable but still gambling

I think if you're invested in a single stock or two (or even 10), yeah it's gambling for sure.

Very hard to lose money if one is invested in whole markets for the long term.

Very good video here that talks about the difference between gambling and investing. WealthTrack is essential viewing for new and old investors:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWLYO7Ax45s

[Hoop]

well done to your son. It seems to me the new way of investing for young people these days is meme investing. chasing what ever the coolest thing is according to there friends and message boards etc ... maybe ?
Interesting discussion...I tend to think similar to Bull...."s post.
Caution ...A Wednesday rant below :scared::D

We are living in IR4 (4th industrial revolution)
From my perspective IR4 was just chugging along being "managed" by large corporate tech to guard their self interests and hampered by old infrastructure, legal processes, lack of desire to future proof, etc...

However we all know from history that a Global Crisis or a World War helps to break down old established systems and creates a sudden surge of change and with it new disruptive companies/systems emerge and start to dominate.

I think Co-vid pandemic has done this...This crisis has accelerated change which was previously forecast (managed) to happen in the late 2020's to happen now.....a leap

Why I'm jealous of my son is partially money-wise but mostly because this leap is threatening to leave me behind..basically put..I'm old school using old school thinking and old school ways of doing things and that includes the way I invest..I have old memories which causes me to use bias decision-making, such as remembering about the aftermath of the "Dot Com Bubble". So.. as a "experienced investor I wag my finger at my son and say "you got away with it this time young man but this "pass the parcel" game is a mugs game ..

...but...Is it possible my advice is not relevant in today's way of investing?

Is my twenty-something son actually more experienced than me ?

Is it possible that we are experiencing a paradigm shift** and the switched on people are profiting from this window of opportunity?...

Are we seeing a paradigm shift in certain sectors caused by the covid crisis (tech leap)? such as Health sectors Retail sectors etc..

We are accustomed to bots running within all industry sectors. The Equity Market has bots which are algorithms*** Is TA becoming more important as this discipline is growing mass over that of Fundamental reasoning?

Looking back at History... The problem with "managing" change is the risk of falling behind and with pent up "demand for change" pressure the flood-gates inevitably suddenly open up causing disruption to the old entrenched systems

Is the latest wave of meme investing using social media tools becoming a powerful force, if true is it becoming a disruptive force capable of causing a paradigm shift within the stock market sector??

Will this ongoing price/demand influence continue to turn fundamentals (and it's logic theories) on its head as it has done this last few years with egg over the Guru's faces and the industry's "so-called inexpenced call" young tech investors continue to make "quick-fire" money against all fundamental odds?

Will this form of volatile investing (long and short) using quicker data transfer become the new normal and dominant form of investing at the expense of the more slow less intensive data transfer traditional long term buy and hold investing strategies?

Does the Equity market sector believe this new way of investing is here to stay?..If so, can it continue to create and update ultra-fast data communication to cater for it...If the market sector disbelieves and is correct life carries on as before...but what happens if it is wrong?

Time will tell....And as I said in my last post my son may be able to teach me how to invest...eh

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ...

** a paradigm shift is defined as "an important change that happens when the usual way of thinking about or doing something is replaced by a new and different way." ...

*** Algorithms are always unambiguous and are used as specifications for performing calculations, data processing, automated reasoning, and other tasks.

[Biscuit]

Interesting discussion...I tend to think similar to Bull...."s post.
Caution ...A Wednesday rant below :scared::D

We are living in IR4 (4th industrial revolution)
From my perspective IR4 was just chugging along being "managed" by large corporate tech to guard their self interests and hampered by old infrastructure, legal processes, lack of desire to future proof, etc...

However we all know from history that a Global Crisis or a World War helps to break down old established systems and creates a sudden surge of change and with it new disruptive companies/systems emerge and start to dominate.

I think Co-vid pandemic has done this...This crisis has accelerated change which was previously forecast (managed) to happen in the late 2020's to happen now.....a leap

Why I'm jealous of my son is partially money-wise but mostly because this leap is threatening to leave me behind..basically put..I'm old school using old school thinking and old school ways of doing things and that includes the way I invest..I have old memories which causes me to use bias decision-making, such as remembering about the aftermath of the "Dot Com Bubble". So.. as a "experienced investor I wag my finger at my son and say "you got away with it this time young man but this "pass the parcel" game is a mugs game ..

...but...Is it possible my advice is not relevant in today's way of investing?

Is my twenty-something son actually more experienced than me ?

Is it possible that we are experiencing a paradigm shift** and the switched on people are profiting from this window of opportunity?...

Are we seeing a paradigm shift in certain sectors caused by the covid crisis (tech leap)? such as Health sectors Retail sectors etc..

We are accustomed to bots running within all industry sectors. The Equity Market has bots which are algorithms*** Is TA becoming more important as this discipline is growing mass over that of Fundamental reasoning?

Looking back at History... The problem with "managing" change is the risk of falling behind and with pent up "demand for change" pressure the flood-gates inevitably suddenly open up causing disruption to the old entrenched systems

Is the latest wave of meme investing using social media tools becoming a powerful force, if true is it becoming a disruptive force capable of causing a paradigm shift within the stock market sector??

Will this ongoing price/demand influence continue to turn fundamentals (and it's logic theories) on its head as it has done this last few years with egg over the Guru's faces and the industry's "so-called inexpenced call" young tech investors continue to make "quick-fire" money against all fundamental odds?

Will this form of volatile investing (long and short) using quicker data transfer become the new normal and dominant form of investing at the expense of the more slow less intensive data transfer traditional long term buy and hold investing strategies?

Does the Equity market sector believe this new way of investing is here to stay?..If so, can it continue to create and update ultra-fast data communication to cater for it...If the market sector disbelieves and is correct life carries on as before...but what happens if it is wrong?

Time will tell....And as I said in my last post my son may be able to teach me how to invest...eh

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ...

** a paradigm shift is defined as "an important change that happens when the usual way of thinking about or doing something is replaced by a new and different way." ...

*** Algorithms are always unambiguous and are used as specifications for performing calculations, data processing, automated reasoning, and other tasks.

Well, I'm an "old" investor and have heard all that before. In the end, fundamentals, like facts, matter. Every generation seems to forget that at some point.

[bull....]

this is getting interesting

POLITICS (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/storytag.:storyTag=newshub:tag-library___op___Politics.:offset=0.html)
Nanaia Mahuta likens New Zealand-China relationship to 'dragon and taniwha


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/nanaia-mahuta-likens-new-zealand-china-relationship-to-dragon-and-taniwha-who-cannot-and-will-not-always-agree.html



China heaps praise on Nanaia Mahuta's 'remarkable' Five Eyes comments

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/china-heaps-praise-on-nanaia-mahuta-s-remarkable-five-eyes-comments.html



New Zealand secures its interests by distancing from US-led clique

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1221610.shtml


British media claims Five Eyes has 'become four' after Nanaia Mahuta's comments on New Zealand's position


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/british-media-claims-five-eyes-has-become-four-after-nanaia-mahuta-s-comments-on-new-zealand-s-position.html


is NZ about to choose sides ?

[peat]

Is it possible my advice is not relevant in today's way of investing?

Is my twenty-something son actually more experienced than me ?

Is it possible that we are experiencing a paradigm shift** ?...

Are we seeing a paradigm shift in certain sectors caused by the covid crisis (tech leap)? such as Health sectors Retail sectors etc..



Thats a solid negative to me for all of those three.
For the sector question its not a paradigm shift, just a demand shift.

[BIRMANBOY]

Hah...one lucky foray by your son and you are ready to re-invent yourself? Just say no. Gambling enriches the few at the expense of the many and investing wisely enriches the majority of those with the discipline and experience to be able to differentiate between the two. Those who venture into the "dark side" ramp up the risks and as the statistics advisers to casinos will tell you.."the house always comes out on top". Calling it by a different name may sound cool and up with the times but for the vast majority of people wanting to make their money work for them ...slow and steady will be less likely to have poor results. Making risky investments with several thousand dollars is not a big deal but try doing that with larger amounts and the results could be life altering and non recoverable.
Interesting discussion...I tend to think similar to Bull...."s post.
Caution ...A Wednesday rant below :scared::D

We are living in IR4 (4th industrial revolution)
From my perspective IR4 was just chugging along being "managed" by large corporate tech to guard their self interests and hampered by old infrastructure, legal processes, lack of desire to future proof, etc...

However we all know from history that a Global Crisis or a World War helps to break down old established systems and creates a sudden surge of change and with it new disruptive companies/systems emerge and start to dominate.

I think Co-vid pandemic has done this...This crisis has accelerated change which was previously forecast (managed) to happen in the late 2020's to happen now.....a leap

Why I'm jealous of my son is partially money-wise but mostly because this leap is threatening to leave me behind..basically put..I'm old school using old school thinking and old school ways of doing things and that includes the way I invest..I have old memories which causes me to use bias decision-making, such as remembering about the aftermath of the "Dot Com Bubble". So.. as a "experienced investor I wag my finger at my son and say "you got away with it this time young man but this "pass the parcel" game is a mugs game ..

...but...Is it possible my advice is not relevant in today's way of investing?

Is my twenty-something son actually more experienced than me ?

Is it possible that we are experiencing a paradigm shift** and the switched on people are profiting from this window of opportunity?...

Are we seeing a paradigm shift in certain sectors caused by the covid crisis (tech leap)? such as Health sectors Retail sectors etc..

We are accustomed to bots running within all industry sectors. The Equity Market has bots which are algorithms*** Is TA becoming more important as this discipline is growing mass over that of Fundamental reasoning?

Looking back at History... The problem with "managing" change is the risk of falling behind and with pent up "demand for change" pressure the flood-gates inevitably suddenly open up causing disruption to the old entrenched systems

Is the latest wave of meme investing using social media tools becoming a powerful force, if true is it becoming a disruptive force capable of causing a paradigm shift within the stock market sector??

Will this ongoing price/demand influence continue to turn fundamentals (and it's logic theories) on its head as it has done this last few years with egg over the Guru's faces and the industry's "so-called inexpenced call" young tech investors continue to make "quick-fire" money against all fundamental odds?

Will this form of volatile investing (long and short) using quicker data transfer become the new normal and dominant form of investing at the expense of the more slow less intensive data transfer traditional long term buy and hold investing strategies?

Does the Equity market sector believe this new way of investing is here to stay?..If so, can it continue to create and update ultra-fast data communication to cater for it...If the market sector disbelieves and is correct life carries on as before...but what happens if it is wrong?

Time will tell....And as I said in my last post my son may be able to teach me how to invest...eh

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ...

** a paradigm shift is defined as "an important change that happens when the usual way of thinking about or doing something is replaced by a new and different way." ...

*** Algorithms are always unambiguous and are used as specifications for performing calculations, data processing, automated reasoning, and other tasks.

[dibble]

‘Investing’ is a ‘gamble’ as well ..... isn’t it .......maybe more respectable but still gambling

Ridiculous comment.

A govt bond is an investment as is a term deposit. If you have a definition for gambling that comfortably includes such instruments then you're being pedantically augmentative and should also include "hoping the ice cream doesnt melt on the way home". Sure speculating is a close verb to gambling but that is a subset of investing not an equivalent.

Is crossing the road gambling or merely tying to get to the other side (or not if you are a chicken)?

[Timesurfer]

Perhaps he should have quantified that as speculative investing?

On the other hand, are Government bonds without risk? Plenty of dodgy Governments/Countries around the world, and I am not sure we are not one of them.
Same can be said of term investments. It wouldn't be the first time a Government has reached into bank accounts of private individuals to prop themselves up. Never mind what might happen to a currency during the course of your fixed term.

Having wealth of any kind is a risk, but most of us see it as a risk we would happily take on. Others spend it and will go to their graves happily knowing that the experience can't be taken from them (baring a dose of alzheimer's).

As for the bleeding red portfolio I am looking at today - should have cashed up yesterday.

[bull....]

PBOC now calls cypto market - alternative investing

After a bitcoin crackdown, China now calls it an ‘investment alternative’ in a significant shift in tone


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/china-calls-bitcoin-an-investment-alternative-marking-shift-in-tone.html

and even NZ IRD tax crypto investing ...... so it cant be gambling can it as gambling is tax free

[LaserEyeKiwi]

PBOC now calls cypto market - alternative investing

After a bitcoin crackdown, China now calls it an ‘investment alternative’ in a significant shift in tone


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/china-calls-bitcoin-an-investment-alternative-marking-shift-in-tone.html

and even NZ IRD tax crypto investing ...... so it cant be gambling can it as gambling is tax free

IRD does actually tax gambling if it deems it a persons primary source of income.

[bull....]

this is getting interesting

POLITICS (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/storytag.:storyTag=newshub:tag-library___op___Politics.:offset=0.html)
Nanaia Mahuta likens New Zealand-China relationship to 'dragon and taniwha


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/nanaia-mahuta-likens-new-zealand-china-relationship-to-dragon-and-taniwha-who-cannot-and-will-not-always-agree.html



China heaps praise on Nanaia Mahuta's 'remarkable' Five Eyes comments

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/china-heaps-praise-on-nanaia-mahuta-s-remarkable-five-eyes-comments.html



New Zealand secures its interests by distancing from US-led clique

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1221610.shtml


British media claims Five Eyes has 'become four' after Nanaia Mahuta's comments on New Zealand's position


https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/british-media-claims-five-eyes-has-become-four-after-nanaia-mahuta-s-comments-on-new-zealand-s-position.html


is NZ about to choose sides ?

Is this another disaster ?

Government could give Finance Minister new role in restricting bank lending


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/government-could-give-finance-minister-new-role-in-restricting-bank-lending/6E7GGL3Z4VYXS4NK72N25CQC6Y/


Our international standing at risk ? why it means we dont have a independant reserve bank anymore another departure from western standards and another move to the autocratic side ?

if it becomes a trend i imagine a big flight of capital fleeing NZ

[dobby41]

Is this another disaster ?

Government could give Finance Minister new role in restricting bank lending


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/government-could-give-finance-minister-new-role-in-restricting-bank-lending/6E7GGL3Z4VYXS4NK72N25CQC6Y/


Our international standing at risk ? why it means we dont have a independant reserve bank anymore another departure from western standards and another move to the autocratic side ?

if it becomes a trend i imagine a big flight of capital fleeing NZ

NZ giving the RB independence in these matters was seen as a major step forward around the world (and followed by many) so removing some of that should be seen as a backward step.
While some changes have a 'time to live' that means they are no longer fit for purpose in a changed setting the RBNZ independence hasn't reached the end-of-days yet

[Aaron]

Is this another disaster ?

Government could give Finance Minister new role in restricting bank lending


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/government-could-give-finance-minister-new-role-in-restricting-bank-lending/6E7GGL3Z4VYXS4NK72N25CQC6Y/


Our international standing at risk ? why it means we dont have a independant reserve bank anymore another departure from western standards and another move to the autocratic side ?

if it becomes a trend i imagine a big flight of capital fleeing NZ

Mostly the article was about gauranteeing depositors up to $100,000. This is taxpayer dollars providing the gaurantee. Not so long ago our reserve bank was trying to foist money on the trading banks who responsibly started setting some limits to their lending when it should have been the other way round.

Its nice to think some people still believe central banks are independent from government anywhere in the western world.

[macduffy]

No mention yet as to what this deposit insurance will cost banks/customers?

[peat]

and even NZ IRD tax crypto investing ...... so it cant be gambling can it as gambling is tax free

but it is indubitably purchased to sell later at a profit so all realised gains are taxable. (because there is NO yield to produce income)

[Bjauck]

No mention yet as to what this deposit insurance will cost banks/customers?
I see the guarantee is limited to $100,000 per institution. So presumably if your deposits total more than $100,000 then the excess funds will not be charged a fee or they will receive a higher interest rate?

[Entrep]

but it is indubitably purchased to sell later at a profit so all realised gains are taxable. (because there is NO yield to produce income)

You could not be more wrong on the yield part. Sheesh

[peat]

You could not be more wrong on the yield part. Sheesh

well please explain if the crypto banks pay interest on deposits. I dont believe they do. and certainly holding crypto in a wallet wont produce any yield so yeh please explain your comment, forums are for learning not sheeshing.

[bull....]

well please explain if the crypto banks pay interest on deposits. I dont believe they do. and certainly holding crypto in a wallet wont produce any yield so yeh please explain your comment, forums are for learning not sheeshing.

they do its called yield farming part of the new defi finance area disrupting the banks . just starting to emerge. if you want to see how it works etc google yield farming , earning interest on your cryto etc. pays better than bank term deposits.

now once your studied all this your begin to realize why the cryto market is now becoming a multi trillion dollar market and should be followed. you never know could be the next black monday catalyst.

[Entrep]

The sheeshing is because I have never come across a community of otherwise intelligent investors that are negative on crypto and know nothing actually correct about it BUT still insist on posting away like they do. Being negative on it is fine as is knowing nothing about it. I take issue with the blatant misinformation that is constantly posted by people pretending to have knowledge about the most basic of crypto concepts. The ability and methods to earn yield on different crypto’s is limitless. Start with Blockfi for BTC. There is literally dozens if not hundreds of other protocols

[Gunner]

The sheeshing is because I have never come across a community of otherwise intelligent investors that are negative on crypto and know nothing actually correct about it BUT still insist on posting away like they do. Being negative on it is fine as is knowing nothing about it. I take issue with the blatant misinformation that is constantly posted by people pretending to have knowledge about the most basic of crypto concepts. The ability and methods to earn yield on different crypto’s is limitless. Start with Blockfi for BTC. There is literally dozens if not hundreds of other protocols

Anything artificial and produces nothing is destined to fail. You can be as fancy as you like but it all comes back to that.

[causecelebre]

So if have fiat (or crypto) on an exchange and lend for others' margin trading is the % return yield?

[BIRMANBOY]

So does it make sense that "otherwise intelligent investors" would suddenly stop being intelligent when faced with crypto? Perhaps this apparent perceived fall in intellectual capacity is because its just that the "OII" recognizes it as another version of the the age old pyramid scheme that has been cunningly disguised in new techno speak? The followers, believers and pumpers of these schemes don't want to examine the soundness of the schemes so use the age old tactic of dismissing any negativity and ignoring the gaps in credibility. This takes the form of questioning the sanity of naysayers and illustrating the huge gains that they have made. This has the secondary benefit of bringing new "investors" into the market. There are always people wanting to make a killing on the new thing and as we should know...greed causes glaucoma. All of these schemes rely on the growth and new growth to build capital. This can go on for years and of course is reliant on new funds to pay out "gains" to those wanting to withdraw. If products were being manufactured that added value and generated a profit margin then you could understand gains, but there is nothing of value being produced. At some point along the way the tipping point is reached and withdrawals exceed incoming and the fecal matter strikes the oscillating wind generator.Its understandable that crypto followers are wildly enthusiastic because where else can you "make" big gains that they brag about. It doesnt bear scrutiny under any economic standards but also doesnt or shouldnt bear scrutiny from an ethical standpoint. Whats ethics got to do with it? Well if I get a 4 or 5% yield on a business i know that the business has been creating a product or services and has provided employment for other people and is paying taxes to support infrastructure etc. If I "make" a 300% increase on a crypto "investment" where is that profit coming from? Well there is no profit so its coming from some other poor schmucks isnt it? Its unsustainable if you examine the supply /food train. Some people will do very well by getting out at the right time but their profits are being supplied by other people who should have known better but let greed get the better of them. Tough luck? i guess but ethically what has a cleaner line and a deeper sleep? Conventional investments employing people, manufacturing goods and services or something that is built and engineered around greed?
The sheeshing is because I have never come across a community of otherwise intelligent investors that are negative on crypto and know nothing actually correct about it BUT still insist on posting away like they do. Being negative on it is fine as is knowing nothing about it. I take issue with the blatant misinformation that is constantly posted by people pretending to have knowledge about the most basic of crypto concepts. The ability and methods to earn yield on different crypto’s is limitless. Start with Blockfi for BTC. There is literally dozens if not hundreds of other protocols

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The sheeshing is because I have never come across a community of otherwise intelligent investors that are negative on crypto and know nothing actually correct about it BUT still insist on posting away like they do. Being negative on it is fine as is knowing nothing about it. I take issue with the blatant misinformation that is constantly posted by people pretending to have knowledge about the most basic of crypto concepts. The ability and methods to earn yield on different crypto’s is limitless. Start with Blockfi for BTC. There is literally dozens if not hundreds of other protocols

nearly all crypto is complete vapourware garbage with zero underlying worth. I was around during the dot com bubble and the whole thing is entirely identical and its very predictable where it will all end up (a whole bunch of young people learning a very expensive lesson because they thought older more experienced investors "just don't get it").

[Gunner]

nearly all crypto is complete vapourware garbage with zero underlying worth. I was around during the dot com bubble and the whole thing is entirely identical and its very predictable where it will all end up (a whole bunch of young people learning a very expensive lesson because they thought older more experienced investors "just don't get it").

Apart from it being garbage, the warning bells are clear to see. The amount of europhic posts on Facebook investor groups about how easy money is with crypto is abit scary. So many people seem to think they are clever and it will continue forever. I was messaging back and forth a 19 year old who was leveraging 10 x into crypto and saying its easy and I don't know what Im talking about with the bubble as I'm old (I'm 34). This time is different etc etc.

History provides a valuable insight to what will happen.

[Entrep]

History provides a valuable insight to what will happen.

Indeed it does.

https://i.imgur.com/eZsccK7.png

I also agree that most of the projects/coins are garbage and people will get burned, yes those FB investor groups, etc are utterly ridiculous. Of course that will end in tears.

However, part of the point is that anyone can make anything - there will always be scammers, trash etc as a result. There are no gatekeepers, it's decentralised.

Type "bitcoin institutions" into Google and check out some of the results. Focus more on that than honing in on the 16 year old kid down the road who just made more than you've done in 10 years on the stock market. The wealthiest and one of the smartest people on the planet convinces his board to invest $1.5B in BTC and you’re complaining about kids on Facebook?

I don't really care what you do or think, but I will continue to point out the misinformation being posted around here.

[dabsman]

but it is indubitably purchased to sell later at a profit so all realised gains are taxable. (because there is NO yield to produce income)

You can stake your holding...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Indeed it does.

https://i.imgur.com/eZsccK7.png

I also agree that most of the projects/coins are garbage and people will get burned, yes those FB investor groups, etc are utterly ridiculous. Of course that will end in tears.

However, part of the point is that anyone can make anything - there will always be scammers, trash etc as a result. There are no gatekeepers, it's decentralised.

Type "bitcoin institutions" into Google and check out some of the results. Focus more on that than honing in on the 16 year old kid down the road who just made more than you've done in 10 years on the stock market. The wealthiest and one of the smartest people on the planet convinces his board to invest $1.5B in BTC and you’re complaining about kids on Facebook?

I don't really care what you do or think, but I will continue to point out the misinformation being posted around here.

This is no different to the late 90s dot com experience. It’s so obvious. Back then there were also many companies and well regarded CEOs that invested billions in nonsense dot com properties, and when the crash came there was absolute carnage.

Just like today, many who were in early made tremendous amounts of wealth riding the dot com names up (it was viewed as incredibly easy as every new dot com IPO soared to new heights, so all you had to do was buy and hold). Everyone looked like genius investors until it ended. When the crash came it was brutal and fast, just as it will be with the impending crypto crash.

The end is not far off - it’s apparent when the crypto community starts to make up new excuses as it becomes apparent the original thesis isn’t working. Right now the Bitcoin community has given up on it being an alternative currency (in which it fails to be on multiple attributes) and now have changed to pushing it as a “store of value / “the new gold”” (despite the fact it also fails as a store of value candidate). When these sort of narrative changes happen it’s a sign that things are starting to fall apart.

[Rawz]

... Right now the Bitcoin community has given up on it being an alternative currency (in which it fails to be on multiple attributes) and now have changed to pushing it as a “store of value / “the new gold”” (despite the fact it also fails as a store of value candidate). When these sort of narrative changes happen it’s a sign that things are starting to fall apart.

I agree with your wider post. I'm trying to tell friends to stay away from these crypto **** coins (**** coins is actually what they are called), like Doge coin, safe moon, mars moon whatever. It is going to end up exactly like the dot com bubble as you say.

Bitcoin is another story. It itself isnt a good alternative currency but it can be used as one with new lightening technology. It works by people staking Bitcoin on level 1 and then there is a 2nd lightening level where transactions can happen instantly and is later correlated on level 1. Well that's how I understand it at least. Someone more knowledgeable can correct if so, but the idea is that new fintech is being constantly developed to solve these transaction issues.

I do believe Bitcoin is an excellent store of value, much more so than gold. I also think it is going to 10x in value to equal the market cap of gold soon enough. If you look at the large corporates/ institutions that have been adding small bitcoin positions to their balance sheets recently and you think how much more demand there will be when pension funds, insurance company's, hedge funds etc start to take 2% positions as part of a balanced portfolio... for me there is only one way and that is up. As for the math of the current halving event we should be at $100,000 usd per coin by the end of the year.

[Habits]

Louis Navellier US markets update 4 mins

https://navellier.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Market-Podcast-April-22-2021.m4a

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I agree with your wider post. I'm trying to tell friends to stay away from these crypto **** coins (**** coins is actually what they are called), like Doge coin, safe moon, mars moon whatever. It is going to end up exactly like the dot com bubble as you say.

Bitcoin is another story. It itself isnt a good alternative currency but it can be used as one with new lightening technology. It works by people staking Bitcoin on level 1 and then there is a 2nd lightening level where transactions can happen instantly and is later correlated on level 1. Well that's how I understand it at least. Someone more knowledgeable can correct if so, but the idea is that new fintech is being constantly developed to solve these transaction issues.

I do believe Bitcoin is an excellent store of value, much more so than gold. I also think it is going to 10x in value to equal the market cap of gold soon enough. If you look at the large corporates/ institutions that have been adding small bitcoin positions to their balance sheets recently and you think how much more demand there will be when pension funds, insurance company's, hedge funds etc start to take 2% positions as part of a balanced portfolio... for me there is only one way and that is up. As for the math of the current halving event we should be at $100,000 usd per coin by the end of the year.

Anything that has massive price swings (up or down) is by definition a terrible candidate for a currency or store of value. No country or economy will adopt something with such an obvious lack of stability.

The obvious candidates that will prove the most appropriate for a crypto currency that will be accepted by governments and economies at large are simply crypto-versions of existing national currencies.

[peat]

The sheeshing is because I have never come across a community of otherwise intelligent investors that are negative on crypto and know nothing actually correct about it BUT still insist on posting away like they do. Being negative on it is fine as is knowing nothing about it. I take issue with the blatant misinformation that is constantly posted by people pretending to have knowledge about the most basic of crypto concepts. The ability and methods to earn yield on different crypto’s is limitless. Start with Blockfi for BTC. There is literally dozens if not hundreds of other protocols

Just calm it down buddy
I have done heaps of research into crypto from 2010 onwards but its very complex and one cannot know everything about it. Especially when one doesnt specialise in it. So I apologise for the mis-information as you call it. But I am hardly uninformed about it. I have owned all sorts of crypto. I have mined it, but I have become more conservative in my old age and made a conscious decision to never speculated or invest (if you must) in it. Right or wrong we all make our choices. But IMH (educated as financial planner though) O it is a ponzi. A very grand one and is right up there for scale and complexity.

[kiora]

Anything that has massive price swings (up or down) is by definition a terrible candidate for a currency or store of value. No country or economy will adopt something with such an obvious lack of stability.

The obvious candidates that will prove the most appropriate for a crypto currency that will be accepted by governments and economies at large are simply crypto-versions of existing national currencies.

And then who in the instos have the PW for the wallets. Prone to inside & outside heists?

[bull....]

Just calm it down buddy
I have done heaps of research into crypto from 2010 onwards but its very complex and one cannot know everything about it. Especially when one doesnt specialise in it. So I apologise for the mis-information as you call it. But I am hardly uninformed about it. I have owned all sorts of crypto. I have mined it, but I have become more conservative in my old age and made a conscious decision to never speculated or invest (if you must) in it. Right or wrong we all make our choices. But IMH (educated as financial planner though) O it is a ponzi. A very grand one and is right up there for scale and complexity.

just like all those kiwi's piling into the greatest ponzi of all ..... the housing market lol

[bull....]

Nigel Farage, the prominent former Brexit-backing British politician, has claimed New Zealand is launching a "new close alliance" with China and leaving the Five Eyes, despite our Foreign Affairs Minister and Prime Minister saying otherwise.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/nigel-farage-claims-new-zealand-launching-alliance-with-china-leaving-five-eyes-despite-jacinda-ardern-nanaia-mahuta-saying-otherwise.html


well at least one good thing be they will introduce chinese into the school system . more relevant than some other languages

[BlackPeter]

Nigel Farage, the prominent former Brexit-backing British politician, has claimed New Zealand is launching a "new close alliance" with China and leaving the Five Eyes, despite our Foreign Affairs Minister and Prime Minister saying otherwise.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/nigel-farage-claims-new-zealand-launching-alliance-with-china-leaving-five-eyes-despite-jacinda-ardern-nanaia-mahuta-saying-otherwise.html


well at least one good thing be they will introduce chinese into the school system . more relevant than some other languages

You mean Nigel Farage the outrageous liar?

Why would anybody care what this idiot says - he has proven again and again how clueless he is ...

[Biscuit]

Just calm it down buddy
I have done heaps of research into crypto from 2010 onwards but its very complex and one cannot know everything about it. Especially when one doesnt specialise in it. So I apologise for the mis-information as you call it. But I am hardly uninformed about it. I have owned all sorts of crypto. I have mined it, but I have become more conservative in my old age and made a conscious decision to never speculated or invest (if you must) in it. Right or wrong we all make our choices. But IMH (educated as financial planner though) O it is a ponzi. A very grand one and is right up there for scale and complexity.

Completely agree, and I know nothing about it. I remember back in the 1990s watch a house being built around the corner from my place and thinking, genuinely, that the guys who figured out that you could build a soundly built house by just plastering over the wooden framing and polystyrene insulation must be very clever and have a lot of data to support that, because I would never have thought it would work. I remember in the early 2000s listening to an expert on the radio explaining how the internet had changed the game and that fundamental valuation methods were completely obsolete and I remember, genuinely, thinking how out of my depth I must be to not see that. Now, I don't care so much how clever people sound.

[Gunner]

Completely agree, and I know nothing about it. I remember back in the 1990s watch a house being built around the corner from my place and thinking, genuinely, that the guys who figured out that you could build a soundly built house by just plastering over the wooden framing and polystyrene insulation must be very clever and have a lot of data to support that, because I would never have thought it would work. I remember in the early 2000s listening to an expert on the radio explaining how the internet had changed the game and that fundamental valuation methods were completely obsolete and I remember, genuinely, thinking how out of my depth I must be to not see that. Now, I don't care so much how clever people sound.

It's always different this time around. Natures law of investing doesnt apply to cryto because it's different this time 🙄

[Rawz]

Bitcoin is completely decentralized. In a age of constant money printing/ currency debasement it's relevance is more and more important.

[Gunner]

Bitcoin is completely decentralized. In a age of constant money printing/ currency debasement it's relevance is more and more important.

Its artificial gold and produces nothing but its Ok, its decentralized.

[Bjauck]

just like all those kiwi's piling into the greatest ponzi of all ..... the housing market lol At least land and houses actually have dimensions.

[Bjauck]

Nigel Farage, the prominent former Brexit-backing British politician, has claimed New Zealand is launching a "new close alliance" with China and leaving the Five Eyes, despite our Foreign Affairs Minister and Prime Minister saying otherwise.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/nigel-farage-claims-new-zealand-launching-alliance-with-china-leaving-five-eyes-despite-jacinda-ardern-nanaia-mahuta-saying-otherwise.html


well at least one good thing be they will introduce chinese into the school system . more relevant than some other languages
Is Farage a confidant of NZ Labour Party and Chinese Communist Party officials?

[Rawz]

Its artificial gold and produces nothing but its Ok, its decentralized.

Well I guess some people want a hedge against currency debasement and some people don't.
Each to their own.

[Biscuit]

Well I guess some people want a hedge against currency debasement and some people don't.
Each to their own.

But there are lots of ways to protect yourself from inflation: shares, property and commodities come to mind?

[Rawz]

But there are lots of ways to protect yourself from inflation: shares, property and commodities come to mind?

You still holding the currency

[Aaron]

Nigel Farage, the prominent former Brexit-backing British politician, has claimed New Zealand is launching a "new close alliance" with China and leaving the Five Eyes, despite our Foreign Affairs Minister and Prime Minister saying otherwise.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/04/nigel-farage-claims-new-zealand-launching-alliance-with-china-leaving-five-eyes-despite-jacinda-ardern-nanaia-mahuta-saying-otherwise.html


well at least one good thing be they will introduce chinese into the school system . more relevant than some other languages

What a load of s*it why do you even post it?

[causecelebre]

Bitcoin is completely decentralized. In a age of constant money printing/ currency debasement it's relevance is more and more important.


Except it's not. The vast majority of BTC is mined by a few, thus control is effectively centralized

[Gunner]

Well I guess some people want a hedge against currency debasement and some people don't.
Each to their own.

Inflation isn't new. Shares and property are a hedge are they not? History says many many people will be exposed with their pants down when the crypto tide goes out.

[dobby41]

You mean Nigel Farage the outrageous liar?

Why would anybody care what this idiot says - he has proven again and again how clueless he is ...

And when proven wrong (often) he never says 'oops, got that wrong sorry'.

[bull....]

What a load of s*it why do you even post it?

sometimes i need to post bull....

[Aaron]

sometimes i need to post bull....

To be fair newshub are the "professionals" so I guess we can assume they assessed the information and decided it passed the sniff test before publishing. Either that or they will print anything to get eyeballs and make money.

Is journalism considered a profession anymore or do they just publish whatever cr*p sells best?

[Tomtom]

Better than perpetually grovelling to be accepted as America's lap dog. I believe a running joke at the Whitehouse is "The Prime Minister in our pocket" although the British prefer 'special relationship.'

[Zaphod]

To be fair newshub are the "professionals" so I guess we can assume they assessed the information and decided it passed the sniff test before publishing. Either that or they will print anything to get eyeballs and make money.


If they didn't publish it, I'm sure a group would proclaim this as evidence of media bias.

[Bobdn]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoOzA5Alo-c

Thomas Lee on CNBC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNnVN3YlcbQ

and Marko Kalonovic.

I do have the vanilla indexes and ETFs (USF, USV, USM, USS, FNZ, OZY, MZY, a lot of ASR (plenty of overlap with the last three) and Kernel Wealth's infrastructure and dividend indexes but I did allow myself a little mad money purchase of two Energy ETFs last year (VDE and IXC) via Hatch.

So naturally I just seek out commentators that support my action :) ie I hear what I want to hear

[bull....]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoOzA5Alo-c

Thomas Lee on CNBC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNnVN3YlcbQ

and Marko Kalonovic.

I do have the vanilla indexes and ETFs (USF, USV, USM, USS, FNZ, OZY, MZY, a lot of ASR (plenty of overlap with the last three) and Kernel Wealth's infrastructure and dividend indexes but I did allow myself a little mad money purchase of two Energy ETFs last year (VDE and IXC) via Hatch.

So naturally I just seek out commentators that support my action :) ie I hear what I want to hear

always good to listen too. been a good mth for stocks april.

in this article from bloomberg there back testing suggests technical analysis has not worked this year and buy and hold is really working as is buy the dips still.

Sell Signals All but Useless in Unchartable 2021 Stock Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-24/sell-signals-all-but-useless-in-unchartable-2021-stock-market

[Bobdn]

Excellent read, thanks. Fortunately I wouldn't know a sell signal from my elbow and took no action. Being part of the Dumb Money has been a blessing over the last year.

Wow, big week on Wall Street this week. I start every morning with coffee and Half Time report with the Judge.

[bull....]

fed meeting just wrapped up

Fed holds interest rates near zero, sees faster growth and higher inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/fed-holds-interest-rates-near-zero-sees-faster-growth-and-higher-inflation.html


wow biden set to unveil

Biden to unveil $1.8 trillion plan for children and families — here’s what’s in it
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/biden-american-families-plan-whats-in-it.html

this is on top of the multi trillion infrastructure package announced recently.
biden is really go big or go home.
while in NZ they are talking about cutting back the year ago talked about infrastructure package. which in another year most likely they still be talking about it lol

[winner69]

Aaron me old mate, you might enjoy this piece by David McWilliams

Hpw the super league fiasco signals the end of neoliberalism


A 30-year economic supercycle ended this week
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/a-30-year-economic-supercycle-ended-this-week/

All ideologies contain the seeds of their own destruction: inequality ultimately did for neoliberalism in the West. We are on a new course.

[Biscuit]

Aaron me old mate, you might enjoy this piece by David McWilliams

Hpw the super league fiasco signals the end of neoliberalism


A 30-year economic supercycle ended this week
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/a-30-year-economic-supercycle-ended-this-week/

All ideologies contain the seeds of their own destruction: inequality ultimately did for neoliberalism in the West. We are on a new course.


"....Rather, MMT argues that we simply print it (money). Spend first and tax later, as opposed to taxing first and spending later...."

There are of course multiple problems with that approach, the principle one being that it is politically easier to spend than to tax.

[jonu]

"....Rather, MMT argues that we simply print it (money). Spend first and tax later, as opposed to taxing first and spending later...."

There are of course multiple problems with that approach, the principle one being that it is politically easier to spend than to tax.

The biggest problem with MMT will be the collapse in confidence of Fiat currencies and at some point high or even hyper inflation.

[Aaron]

Aaron me old mate, you might enjoy this piece by David McWilliams

Hpw the super league fiasco signals the end of neoliberalism


A 30-year economic supercycle ended this week
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/a-30-year-economic-supercycle-ended-this-week/

All ideologies contain the seeds of their own destruction: inequality ultimately did for neoliberalism in the West. We are on a new course.

I don't see MMT being any different to what we have now with low interest rates and easy money except it is currently going to the owners of capital. Whereas MMT will give the money to governments to throw around and buy elections.

You would have to say interest rates and monetary policy are getting to extremes (I could be wrong years from now but based on the past it seems extreme)

The problem remains the same no constraint on money supply. Something for nothing just like the gift inflation is to borrowers money printing works much the same way.

A sound stable currency might be a good thing for the average person. Imagine a world where if you worked hard and saved you could get ahead (not possible now with rampant housing inflation). What if productivity gains and more efficient business practices were allowed to cause deflation and the cost of living for everyone went down instead of up. Imagine young people being able to afford an education AND a house and family. Having it all, just like the generations before them.

But no we have a continuation of trickle down economics. Sadly european soccer fans can understand when they are getting shaken down but young people in NZ remain ignorant to the fact that they are likely to be poorer, be less healthy and have shorter lives than the previous generation. Unless of course Mum & Dad have done alright, then they are likely to be much better off than their peers.

[bull....]

dodge coin on fire. this value play lol has been under - rated by the market for a long time. even my uni son brought it in the cents as a laugh with his friends. guess they are laughing now.
dont worry the fed has our backs and in this current environment the biggest gamblers are the most rewarded.

dodge on fire . the future is dodge some would say lol remember dont be greedy

[Nor]

Isn't MMT the same thing as Social Credit's funny money?

[Gerald]

Isn't MMT the same thing as Social Credit's funny money?


MMT still has debt on one side of the balance sheet, while CL's social credit is just the RB printing money & giving to the government with no liability to repay.

[Nor]

MMT still has debt on one side of the balance sheet, while CL's social credit is just the RB printing money & giving to the government with no liability to repay.

Ah. But then they monetise the debt? I was reading a little while ago that the Bank of England had already done that recently in a devious way.

[Habits]

US Fed second Qtr gdp growth forecast 13pct annualised.

Companies are reporting first qtr sales and earnings growth well above analysts forecasts.

Wow

[bull....]

dodge on fire up another 50% since this morning ..... people are seeing the light lol bye the way musk speaking later might send it to the moon lol.

gotta ask yourself do ya feel lucky , well do ya punk

11000% return in 2021

[Gunner]

dodge on fire up another 50% since this morning ..... people are seeing the light lol bye the way musk speaking later might send it to the moon lol.

gotta ask yourself do ya feel lucky , well do ya punk

11000% return in 2021

What a joke, gambling pure and simple. Hope no one is left with their pants down when the tide goes out.

[Habits]

dodge on fire up another 50% since this morning ..... people are seeing the light lol bye the way musk speaking later might send it to the moon lol.

gotta ask yourself do ya feel lucky , well do ya punk

11000% return in 2021

Nope not for me bull... I will stick with my unspectacular but decent dividend yields. That is proper investing imo

[bull....]

Nope not for me bull... I will stick with my unspectacular but decent dividend yields. That is proper investing imo

i like having a speculative % of my portfolio in these types of things. if it goes well it makes my portfolio return look spectacular , if it goes bad oh well its not the end of the world cause its such a small % of the overall pie and i still end up with an overall positive return for the rest of the portfolio

[Bjauck]

i like having a speculative % of my portfolio in these types of things. if it goes well it makes my portfolio return look spectacular , if it goes bad oh well its not the end of the world cause its such a small % of the overall pie and i still end up with an overall positive return for the rest of the portfolio

Good point. All new technologies and business models depend on speculative investment to try to get a foothold. Of course not all of them become Microsoft, Apple or Ford.

[bull....]

Good point. All new technologies and business models depend on speculative investment to try to get a foothold. Of course not all of them become Microsoft, Apple or Ford.

too true. if you hit one right it will make you very wealthy in time.

as for dodge

If you bought dogecoin at the beginning of the year you’ve enjoyed massive gains over the past four months. A $1,000 dogecoin purchase on Jan. 1, 2021 — at a price of less than a cent per coin — would be worth $121,052 at Wednesday’s high of 69 cents, a gain of more than 12,000% according to CNBC calculations

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/how-much-a-1000-dollar-investment-in-dogecoin-is-worth.html

as an example on dodge a 1000 dollar investment in a 100k portfolio makes a big difference to returns if you get it right. and a loss of 1000 will not be the end of your investing. So have a spec investment is well worth the risk sometimes.

[bull....]

terrible jobs number , probably no tapering when the unemployment number still this bad

April’s expected hiring boom goes bust as nonfarm payroll gain falls well short of estimates
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs-report-april-2021.html


Weak jobs report shows the need for massive jobs and families bills, Biden says
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/weak-jobs-report-shows-the-need-for-massive-jobs-and-families-bills-biden-says.html

remember the dodge father is on SNL ..... buy the rumour sell the fact?

[bull....]

remember SNL the big event the doge father .... buy the rumour sell the fact ? its gonna be big



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbI31x3FpS0

[Old mate]

That clip is classic bull:t_up:

[bull....]

ark innovation funds how concentrated they are in some stocks ... could be a worry if there a rush on redemptions as its so big now ? Can a ETF blow up ?

since the post ark down 30 odd % , the froth is coming off for sure.

[bull....]

Australia Ratchets Up Spending in Drive for Maximum Employment


“By prioritizing economic repair over budget repair, the federal government has made the correct choice,” said Callam Pickering, an economist at global jobs website Indeed Inc. who previously worked at the central bank. “For a decade we’ve had successive federal governments undermine Australia’s economy through inadequate fiscal policy.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-11/australia-to-run-economy-hot-in-budget-geared-toward-jobs-blitz?srnd=premium-asia

aus joins other countries in growth budget. what a contrast to NZ , NZ seems to be a bit of an outlier with there non - growth policies

[X-men]

U ever sleep bull? Hahaha

[bull....]

U ever sleep bull? Hahaha

markets never sleep , actually you know when traders are tired as the market goes quiet for a while.

when im not working i enjoy baking

12498

[Habits]

U ever sleep bull? Hahaha

He/she is up with the bulls.... but I wonder how does he eat this sh!t

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=12498&d=1620757274

[kiora]

Just a matter of time before an ETF blows up isn't it?
..... then they will be eating some of your baking .....

[Zaphod]

markets never sleep , actually you know when traders are tired as the market goes quiet for a while.

when im not working i enjoy baking

12498

Hmmmm... A bit too nutty for my tastes. Easy to produce more though.

[BlackPeter]

markets never sleep , actually you know when traders are tired as the market goes quiet for a while.

when im not working i enjoy baking

12498

I hope this does not taste the way it looks :);

[Getty]

Is that the droppings of a Shih Tzu?

[bull....]

Inflation speeds up in April as consumer prices leap 4.2%, fastest since 2008
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/consumer-price-index-april-2021.html

my food bill seems to go up no matter what the print is

[Entrep]

Very bloody overnight in the US and USD up strongly also.

[bull....]

doge might have signaled the top in crypto ? , bitcoin in freefall now thx to musk , wonder if this cause liquidations in other markets

[BlackPeter]

doge might have signaled the top in crypto ? , bitcoin in freefall now thx to musk , wonder if this cause liquidations in other markets

I wonder whether Musk is now shorting crypto currency after he first ramped them up. Amazing how simple winded some people are - but what is the old saying about a fool and his money?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

doge might have signaled the top in crypto ? , bitcoin in freefall now thx to musk , wonder if this cause liquidations in other markets

Yes I have been watching for this. All the classic signs of end stage euphoric tops. I'm watching for this money to flow back into tech.

[JBmurc]

Yes I have been watching for this. All the classic signs of end stage euphoric tops. I'm watching for this money to flow back into tech.

Certainly in hyper valued tech ..my ASX resources companies holding up just fine ....

[JBmurc]

I wonder whether Musk is now shorting crypto currency after he first ramped them up. Amazing how simple winded some people are - but what is the old saying about a fool and his money?

Well he did dump some of his BTC purchase not long ago .. prob has sold more prior to the tweet ....

[bull....]

Yes I have been watching for this. All the classic signs of end stage euphoric tops. I'm watching for this money to flow back into tech.

flowing out pretty quick in taiwan the market crashed 10% in 2 days.

nasdaq might be forming a huge double top on the weekly

[Bjauck]

With policy settings creating unaffordable housing plus low salaries lead to another brain drain of younger people to Australia? Will we have to start relying on immigration again with NZ acting as a stepping stone to Australia?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125142382/budget-2021-is-new-zealand-on-the-eve-of-a-new-brain-drain-to-australia

[BlackPeter]

With policy settings creating unaffordable housing plus low salaries lead to another brain drain of younger people to Australia? Will we have to start relying on immigration again with NZ acting as a stepping stone to Australia?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125142382/budget-2021-is-new-zealand-on-the-eve-of-a-new-brain-drain-to-australia

Why would you think it is the brainy ones who decide to go to Australia? Looks pretty dumb to me to move to a country which takes your taxes without giving anything in return. Kiwis over there are basically cheap and unprotected slave laborers - the Ossies exploit them while they are able to work and if anything goes wrong they (or their kids) end up in detention or sent straight back to NZ (Ossies "putting the rubbish out").

Not a fan of Muldoon, but I think his famous quote about Kiwis moving to Australia lifting the level of intelligence in both countries still hits the nail on the head. Australia behaves these days like a country full of nasty and selfish people. I can see how this might attract likeminded people, but hardly people with brains.

[Bjauck]

Why would you think it is the brainy ones who decide to go to Australia? Looks pretty dumb to me to move to a country which takes your taxes without giving anything in return. Kiwis over there are basically cheap and unprotected slave laborers - the Ossies exploit them while they are able to work and if anything goes wrong they (or their kids) end up in detention or sent straight back to NZ (Ossies "putting the rubbish out").

Not a fan of Muldoon, but I think his famous quote about Kiwis moving to Australia lifting the level of intelligence in both countries still hits the nail on the head. Australia behaves these days like a country full of nasty and selfish people. I can see how this might attract likeminded people, but hardly people with brains.

Muldoon did not hit the nail on the head. He missed the nail and went straight for the fingers - as was his style. He loved a good scapegoat? He belittled those seeking a better life away from Muldoonism in NZ as well as belittling the country which took them in.

I guess it depends on the balancing of pros and cons and whether it is worth taking the risk of living in Australia on a NZ SCV. Will it be better being sub-human on a SCV in Oz or struggling to save and get a toe-hold in NZ? NZers can come back to NZ if they need full state help.

New Zealand citizens claiming payments in Australia

https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/topics/new-zealand-citizens-claiming-payments-australia/30721

[bull....]

With policy settings creating unaffordable housing plus low salaries lead to another brain drain of younger people to Australia? Will we have to start relying on immigration again with NZ acting as a stepping stone to Australia?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/125142382/budget-2021-is-new-zealand-on-the-eve-of-a-new-brain-drain-to-australia

i think it will become a big issue when the world opens up from covid. be any age group looking for bigger wages. cost of living pretty comparable.
successive govt's have failed to provide a pro investment environment in business or pathway for businesses to become big businesses in NZ which would support higher paying jobs and help retain the skilled workforce. this has meant nz always has relied on immigration to fill its lack of depth in both skilled and non skilled jobs.
a recent example is quite a few businesses wanted to come here and set up during covid but when they realised theres no depth to the labour force none came.

[bull....]

doge might have signaled the top in crypto ? , bitcoin in freefall now thx to musk , wonder if this cause liquidations in other markets

bitcoin really starting to tank now

Bitcoin stumbles after China crypto warning
https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/bitcoin-stumbles-after-china-crypto-warning-20210519-p57t4v

as was thinking the effects are starting to affect other markets

[Rawz]

Bitcoin in a world of hurt.

I invested a small portion of my portfolio earlier this year. Got a 200% gain, trimmed a bit. It dropped down to 50% gain, bought some more. Then I sold the lot overall for 10% loss last week lol. Wow what a ride. I have realized I don't have the stomach for the wild swings and have run back to my boring but solid NZX stocks.

Some still say US$100,000 per coin by the end of the year.

[calledone]

bitcoin really starting to tank now

Bitcoin stumbles after China crypto warning
https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/bitcoin-stumbles-after-china-crypto-warning-20210519-p57t4v

as was thinking the effects are starting to affect other markets

Hey bull, which broker do you use to buy crypto?

[JBmurc]

Bitcoin in a world of hurt.

I invested a small portion of my portfolio earlier this year. Got a 200% gain, trimmed a bit. It dropped down to 50% gain, bought some more. Then I sold the lot overall for 10% loss last week lol. Wow what a ride. I have realized I don't have the stomach for the wild swings and have run back to my boring but solid NZX stocks.

Some still say US$100,000 per coin by the end of the year.

Take a zero off and I agree >> 10k USD going into 2022 IMHO

[bull....]

Hey bull, which broker do you use to buy crypto?

i use td ameritrade if i wish to sell bitcoin futures. recent doge trade i was talking about is thru binance.

anyway as was saying i thought doge signalled the top in crypto and the only way to sum it up today is its a crash. :scared: and the effects of this crash are probably spilling over to other markets now. cypto has well over a trillion invested in it now so thats a lot of lost money today.

[Vee Vee]

Where did the money get "lost"?
Willing buyer, willing seller. The money simply changed hands. Now it will go on term deposit... lol.

[bull....]

Where did the money get "lost"?
Willing buyer, willing seller. The money simply changed hands. Now it will go on term deposit... lol.

of course willing buyer , maybe forced seller.
those that brought higher than todays prices and sell have lost money and we have no idea how much margin is involved in these transactions and if they are part of portfolio composition by institutions etc that would explain the flow on to other markets as they re-arrange the portfolio and cover losses potentially

[calledone]

i use td ameritrade if i wish to sell bitcoin futures. recent doge trade i was talking about is thru binance.

anyway as was saying i thought doge signalled the top in crypto and the only way to sum it up today is its a crash. :scared: and the effects of this crash are probably spilling over to other markets now. cypto has well over a trillion invested in it now so thats a lot of lost money today.

Thanks bull.

[Scrunch]

i use td ameritrade if i wish to sell bitcoin futures. recent doge trade i was talking about is thru binance.

anyway as was saying i thought doge signalled the top in crypto and the only way to sum it up today is its a crash. :scared: and the effects of this crash are probably spilling over to other markets now. cypto has well over a trillion invested in it now so thats a lot of lost money today.

Looking at googles 1day price it really was a V crash over a few hours from over us$40 to about $32 and then back to $40.

[JBmurc]

Looking at googles 1day price it really was a V crash over a few hours from over us$40 to about $32 and then back to $40.

Its called a "BEAR TRAP"12522

[Cadalac123]

Its called a "BEAR TRAP"12522

The issue is bitcoin is no longer dissociated with the general index (more specifically NASDAQ). The "recovery leg" from a intraday perspective yesterday netting returns up to 100% over hours in some alt coins was correlated with a recovery in the nasdaq + futures almost 1:1.

I feel uncomfortable holding it because it already has an underlying volatility factor and this new found correlation with the NASDAQ i've noticed since it's more recent resumption into a bull cycle (as per March 2020) is making it even more messier. I think it's more favourable when it's running on a bull cycle on its own terms. If I sat down and learnt about crypto trading though I would consider trading it.

[Jaa]

Take a zero off and I agree >> 10k USD going into 2022 IMHO

How about taking off the 1 instead? :D

[bull....]

looks like money flowing from cypto into stocks since the crash


FEDERAL RESERVE (https://www.cnbc.com/federal-reserve/)The Fed this summer will take another step ahead in developing a digital currency
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/20/the-fed-this-summer-will-take-another-step-ahead-in-developing-a-digital-currency.html


U.S. Treasury calls for stricter cryptocurrency compliance with IRS, says they pose tax evasion risk
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/20/us-treasury-calls-for-stricter-cryptocurrency-compliance-with-irs.html

[Scrunch]

looks like money flowing from cypto into stocks since the crash


FEDERAL RESERVE (https://www.cnbc.com/federal-reserve/)The Fed this summer will take another step ahead in developing a digital currency
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/20/the-fed-this-summer-will-take-another-step-ahead-in-developing-a-digital-currency.html


U.S. Treasury calls for stricter cryptocurrency compliance with IRS, says they pose tax evasion risk
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/20/us-treasury-calls-for-stricter-cryptocurrency-compliance-with-irs.html


So one step closer to the "digital" currency nz almost has with cheques being ruled out and transfers being done by bank to bank transfers, sometimes aided by an eftpos (electronic funds transfer at point of sale) card?

[bull....]

So one step closer to the "digital" currency nz almost has with cheques being ruled out and transfers being done by bank to bank transfers, sometimes aided by an eftpos (electronic funds transfer at point of sale) card?

the future is digital

[Panda-NZ-]

So one step closer to the "digital" currency nz almost has with cheques being ruled out and transfers being done by bank to bank transfers, sometimes aided by an eftpos (electronic funds transfer at point of sale) card?

If you want to support your local business a little more pay with eftpos/epoli since their merchant fee is 1% vs 2.5% for mastercard I believe.

[bull....]

almost forgot about nz budget or lack of one lol. glad beneficiaries got some money but hardly enough to have much impact as for the rest of the budget think this sums it up

don’t expect New Zealand to stop its decline on almost every social and economic measure against other OECD countries.

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/110505/guy-trafford-sees-budget-low-ambition-or-transformation-he-wonders-if-we-will-ever

[Panda-NZ-]

0 corona cases vs millions in the oecd
Lockdowns which go on forever and ever.
Fake news everywhere propagated by russian bots.

The OECD situation is rather bleak to be honest!

[Bobdn]

almost forgot about nz budget or lack of one lol. glad beneficiaries got some money but hardly enough to have much impact as for the rest of the budget think this sums it up

don’t expect New Zealand to stop its decline on almost every social and economic measure against other OECD countries.

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/110505/guy-trafford-sees-budget-low-ambition-or-transformation-he-wonders-if-we-will-ever

Yes and sadly many NZers have Kiwisaver schemes with too much of a home bias.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Yes and sadly many NZers have Kiwisaver schemes with too much of a home bias.

A day after the 2021 Budget NZX50 up 0,2% approx.
NZX50 has declined from year end.

Appears Kiwis have better option.

[Panda-NZ-]

Thank ATM for that.
No cgt, moar stimulus and fully imputed dividends will ultimately drive it higher as it doubled since 2017.

[Panda-NZ-]

Muldoon did not hit the nail on the head. He missed the nail and went straight for the fingers - as was his style. He loved a good scapegoat? He belittled those seeking a better life away from Muldoonism in NZ as well as belittling the country which took them in.

Mr keating put in place a wonderful superannuation scheme which saved their bacon a few times.
The last good idea from that contitent..

[bull....]

Looking at googles 1day price it really was a V crash over a few hours from over us$40 to about $32 and then back to $40.

v bounce didnt last long , bitcoin heading back to test 30 k , i reckon if it falls thru 30k support be another almighty crash. wonder how this will affect stocks?

[bull....]

almost forgot about nz budget or lack of one lol. glad beneficiaries got some money but hardly enough to have much impact as for the rest of the budget think this sums it up

don’t expect New Zealand to stop its decline on almost every social and economic measure against other OECD countries.

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/110505/guy-trafford-sees-budget-low-ambition-or-transformation-he-wonders-if-we-will-ever

productivity commissions new report just highlights nz decline in living standards from near the top of OECD to near the bottom wow ... we must be doing something wrong obviously

Working longer hours but producing less: NZ's poor productivity

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125253561/working-longer-hours-but-producing-less-nzs-poor-productivity

[Bjauck]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125253561/working-longer-hours-but-producing-less-nzs-poor-productivity

Little surprise here. NZ has had a regressive tax regime that has taxed salaries and income profit but has left capital gains including from real estate (owner occupied and investment) mostly untaxed. So with the ease of leveraging an investment in real estate, it is no surprise that NZers have prioritised investment in real estate rather than in capitalising business production.

[Bjauck]

Mr keating put in place a wonderful superannuation scheme which saved their bacon a few times.
The last good idea from that contitent..
Keating once described Australia as being at "The arse-end of the World". Perhaps people from other islands and continents could learn something from Australian ability to self-criticise and not to take themselves too seriously.

[stoploss]

Keating once described Australia as being at "The arse-end of the World". Perhaps people from other islands and continents could learn something from Australian ability to self-criticise and not to take themselves too seriously.

His more famous quote was 'banana republic " sent the currency into a freefall
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/a-trillion-dollars-in-debt-but-no-banana-republic-20170630-gx1pb1.html

[bull....]

ytd markets the best places at the moment are europe and the US to have ones loot , apart from a few stocks NZ continues to be the worst place in the world to have your loot

[greater fool]

Worth a read punters. Time for a portfolio/strategy review?

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/110600/reserve-bank-has-provided-go-signal-financial-markets-start-pushing-interest-rates

[Panda-NZ-]

Maybe its time to freeze the NZ economy since its too good.

I don't see what high interest rates and a higher NZD delivers for us except less competitive exports.

[Biscuit]

.....I don't see what high interest rates and a higher NZD delivers for us except less competitive exports.

cheaper imports... The question is what changes to make to ones investments in response. Raising interest rates, raising NZ dollar... NZ importers with no gearing like HLG might be more attactive?

[Panda-NZ-]

All the import substitution enterprises will struggle too.
Like sleepyheads new 2.4k jobs in waikato.

We don't need another solid energy type situation

[Biscuit]

All the import substitution enterprises will struggle too.
Like sleepyheads new 2.4k jobs in waikato.

We don't need another solid energy type situation

A good lesson in life is not to worry about things you cannot change, that may not happen and that are primarily other peoples problem anyway. Focus on your portfolio, change always brings opportunities to make money.

[Panda-NZ-]

I'm mostly in bank shares currently.

I will continue to speak out on trends which are bad for NZ though.

[Biscuit]

I'm mostly in bank shares currently.

I will continue to speak out on trends which are bad for NZ though.

Yes, I've been buying bank shares, they should do well in higher inflation times. My dad used to worry about stuff ... the world running out of oil (this was in the 1970s) etc etc... the things he worried about were essentially irrelevant to his own life and he died in his 60s not exactly poor and miserable, but the middleclass version of that.

[Panda-NZ-]

I'm rather interested in health too.

No reason we can't be immortal eventually...

Maybe a quantum computer will solve the "golden equation" to prevent all biological disease and aging and even that is only one approach of many viable paths for achieving it. :)

[Panda-NZ-]

Sadly the bank shares and ETFs on the NZX are affected by exchange rates too though.

[Biscuit]

......No reason we can't be immortal eventually....

Panda, you either are immortal or you are not, it is not something you can eventually be. Also, if you live long enough, you will be killed by accident. That is why evolution did not bother to select any immortal individuals.

[Panda-NZ-]

There's no use for evolution when we have control over it today (and hopefully driven by ethics :) ).

The good news is that international fertility rates are declining across the board which allows for more people who want to live longer in good balance with the environment.

[Panda-NZ-]

The movie idiocracy provides a good insight into how natural selection works in a modern society.

The intelligent individuals become overwhelmed by those who can breed more successfully.

[Biscuit]

The movie idiocracy provides a good insight into how natural selection works in a modern society.

The intelligent individuals become overwhelmed by those who can breed more successfully.

You will be dead long, long, long before natural selection has any noticeable effect on the characteristics of our society, so, like peak oil and trends that are theoretically bad for NZ, my advice is don't worry about it.

[Panda-NZ-]

If you're planning to still be around when things go downhill (or not), then even more reason to want to help shape and mould things I would think.

[winner69]

This doesn’t sound to good from some guy called Shares Doctor -

Current CAPE = 37 therefore negative returns each year on average for next 10 years also Q ratio mean reversion would give a 70-75% drop in SP 500 just to go to the mean. Nice fed induced 12 year bull market but the odds are looking stacked against it. Do I feel lucky?

[Nor]

Personally I have very little faith in what the reserve bank hints about what they might do in the future. Their only purpose is to influence the present, nothing more. I don't believe any rate rises will occur before US rates rise, that's where talk of it began.

[bull....]

Personally I have very little faith in what the reserve bank hints about what they might do in the future. Their only purpose is to influence the present, nothing more. I don't believe any rate rises will occur before US rates rise, that's where talk of it began.

not only the reserve bank but the bank economists. long range forecasting of rates needs to be taken with a grain of salt in this uncertain environment.

The Reserve Bank has hinted it may inject more stimulus into Australia's economy to super-charge its recovery from COVID-19, while maintaining interest rates near zero for now.
Dr Lowe also reiterated the RBA's stance that an interest rate hike is unlikely to happen "until 2024 at the earliest".

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-01/asx-australia-share-market-rba-interest-rates/100180348

yea so us , aus many others not planning to raise rates for a few years yet and the RBNZ and bank economists in NZ say next year ? yea right

[Bobdn]

I wonder what's going to happen to our funny little NZ market. I'm just not feeling the nzx50 at the moment. I see the ASX200 has just hit all time highs this afternoon. The world wants what Australia has. What has NZ got to offer?

[Balance]

I wonder what's going to happen to our funny little NZ market. I'm just not feeling the nzx50 at the moment. I see the ASX200 has just hit all time highs this afternoon. The world wants what Australia has. What has NZ got to offer?

Cynical Clueless Cindy.

And they can have her.

The sooner, the better.

[Panda-NZ-]

I wonder what's going to happen to our funny little NZ market. I'm just not feeling the nzx50 at the moment. I see the ASX200 has just hit all time highs this afternoon. The world wants what Australia has. What has NZ got to offer?

Climate change free zone (NZ & Canada the only countries expected to benefit in terms of agriculture, water resources etc).

[Balance]

:p
Cynical Clueless Cindy.

And they can have her.

The sooner, the better.

Reminds me of the story :

A man advertised ‘Wife Wanted.’

He received 100 replies and they all said ‘You can have mine.’:p

[Panda-NZ-]

Reminds me of the story :


NZX up nearly 100% since her first term.

Mike hosking said it would collapse :\

[tim23]

Cynical Clueless Cindy.

And they can have her.

The sooner, the better.

I have to hand it to you - you never let up on our very popular PM but your comments might be best on the political forum?

[Panda-NZ-]

Haven't you left for australia yet with Mike?

Why are both of you still in the country and when can we expect the depature. :)

[Ggcc]

NZX up nearly 100% since her first term.

Mike hosking said it would collapse :\
It won’t go down if you keep giving the people money. It’s free right……….

[Panda-NZ-]

Which means higher living standards for the people.

Something everyone should aim for esp. when other countries are.

[Bjauck]

NZX up nearly 100% since her first term.

Mike hosking said it would collapse :\ US data shows that the colour of the government has little effect on the share market but it does tend to perform better under Democrat Presidents (left of centre) with a split congress
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/are-republicans-or-democrats-better-for-the-stock-market.html

[Panda-NZ-]

100% is a good track record for further gains though which some suggested we were flatlining which isn't the case.

S&P 500 in '16: 2100
S&P 500 in '20: 4200

Which is also a doubling so we have seen similar gains to the United States.
Achieved without tax cuts or share repurchases. :)

[Bjauck]

100% is a good track record for further gains though which some suggested we were flatlining which isn't the case.

S&P 500 in '16: 2100
S&P 500 in '20: 4200

So we have seen similar gains to the United States.

Achieved with no tax cuts or share buybacks. The NZX50 is a gross index which includes gross dividends and the USA has a general capital gains tax.

[Panda-NZ-]

We have a Revenue tax of 15% on most NZ business, excluding exporters, which has more of an impact than another form of income tax.

[Panda-NZ-]

I welcome an expanded Fed mandate in the US though others have raised concerns.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/27/the-fed-keeps-expanding-its-powers-and-thats-making-some-people-nervous.html

They should spend money directly in my view and stop the political element getting in the way of maintaining their 2% inflation target.

The median voter isn't a great source of wisdom on these issues. Maybe the Federal reserve has better ideas than spending on defence, which makes up half of the discretionary budget.

[bull....]

I welcome an expanded Fed mandate in the US though others have raised concerns.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/27/the-fed-keeps-expanding-its-powers-and-thats-making-some-people-nervous.html

They should spend money directly in my view and stop the political element getting in the way of maintaining their 2% inflation target.

The median voter isn't a great source of wisdom on these issues. Maybe the Federal reserve has better ideas than spending on defence, which makes up half of the discretionary budget.

the coming digital US dollar will give the fed unprecedented power even when the RBNZ gets there digital currency one day same thing lots more power to directly influence the economy and people


anyone in the AMC take-out the shorts squeeze

[Panda-NZ-]

It's already a digital dollar in a way - just have to remove cash.

The preserve of criminals and tax avoiding tradies ^^

[Bjauck]

We have a Revenue tax of 15% on most NZ business, excluding exporters, which has more of an impact than another form of income tax.
The absence of a CGT in NZ is relevant as in effect it is a permanent tax cut. This helps to inflate share prices over time (just as it has helped even more to inflate NZ house prices.) So given this context, I think it makes the performance of the NZX50 gross index less remarkable compared to the performance of the American capital index over the same period.

NZ GST along with US state and local sales taxes, Employer Health and dental insurance payments and payroll tax are not applied as a result of the increased value of share investments when realised.
Smartshares NZ.

I would actually posit that comparing the NZX50 to the S&P500 index is also misleading insofar as the NZX50 is dominated by several large companies. A more valid comparison would be with the NZ portfolio index as followed by the FNZ TOP50 ETF which is "only" up by about 60% in the past five years.

[Panda-NZ-]

What percentage of the NZX is owned overseas?

For our largest company (FPH):
https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-fph/fisher-paykel-healthcare-shares

15% is owned by JP morgan bank..

There would be a CGT payable in the united states.

[Bjauck]

What percentage of the NZX is owned overseas?

For our largest company (FPH):
https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/healthcare/nzx-fph/fisher-paykel-healthcare-shares
15% is owned by JP morgan bank..

There would be a CGT payable in the united states.
In addition, despite the lack of a NZ CGT, so many NZ companies have been bought up by foreign concerns or have shifted their primary listings to Australia. NZ settings have been amiss? The NZ share market has been hollowed out?

[Panda-NZ-]

The australian super funds are massive ($2T). No doubt they have large holdings in NZ firms and pay capital gains tax in australia.

[Panda-NZ-]

Also many companies list on the ASX, and that portion of shares will be australian owned. These likely influence the NZX too.

[bull....]

jobs numbers not to hot to worry about money printing ending just yet

Fed’s Mester lauds jobs report but says it’s not enough to change policy
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/feds-mester-lauds-jobs-data-but-says-its-not-enough-to-change-policy.html

Jobs report shows improvement, but not enough to get Fed talking about tapering
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/jobs-data-improves-but-not-enough-to-get-fed-talking-about-tapering.html


mean while in NZ they are not printing enough money as they just cancelled the big road infrastructure build they announced in january 2020 ( another policy fail ) and replacing it with a very expensive walk and bike bridge lol
that help NZ productivity issues

[Panda-NZ-]

G7 tax deal to set the stage for minimum tax rates. Its about time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/g7-aims-to-reach-historic-deal-on-corporate-tax-abuse-this-weekend

[Panda-NZ-]

Bank of Japan Governer readies to buy ETFs "boldly".

Kuroda said the bank's basic stance was to buy ETFs in huge amounts when market fluctuations are large, based on its findings that doing so was most effective in maximising the effects. There's absolutely no change to our stance of buying ETFs boldly when necessary. he added.

.https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bojs-kuroda-warns-economic-uncertainty-amid-pandemic-curbs-2021-05-13/

Also the governer slams bitcoin:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/bitcoin-slumps-to-35-000-as-kuroda-adds-to-crypto-criticism

[nztx]

G7 tax deal to set the stage for minimum tax rates. Its about time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/g7-aims-to-reach-historic-deal-on-corporate-tax-abuse-this-weekend

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/03/cyprus-block-eu-adoption-joe-biden-minimum-corporate-tax-multinationals

The NZ Corporate Tax rate at 28% suggests that NZ Companies are being ripped off & overtaxed on the international standards
suggested of 15% ? ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

All other countries have dividend taxes. only foreigners are being ripped off which is fine with me

[nztx]

jobs numbers not to hot to worry about money printing ending just yet

Fed’s Mester lauds jobs report but says it’s not enough to change policy
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/feds-mester-lauds-jobs-data-but-says-its-not-enough-to-change-policy.html

Jobs report shows improvement, but not enough to get Fed talking about tapering
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/04/jobs-data-improves-but-not-enough-to-get-fed-talking-about-tapering.html


mean while in NZ they are not printing enough money as they just cancelled the big road infrastructure build they announced in january 2020 ( another policy fail ) and replacing it with a very expensive walk and bike bridge lol
that help NZ productivity issues

I see that .. Are they scared that someone may wake up to the fact that some poor suckers in the
future are going to have to pay dearly to repay the whole lot of artificially created magic credit
mysteriously concocted overnight between Govt & it's captive - the RB (or Reserve Debt) Bank ? ;)

[nztx]

All other countries have dividend taxes. only foreigners are being ripped off which is fine with me

We're not talking about dividend taxes though ..

[Panda-NZ-]

Whats your point then?

there's no need for anything over what's already in place given our good economic performance.

[nztx]

Whats your point then?

there's no need for anything else given our good relative economic performance.

Reread the article, then what is being talked about should be obvious

Good performance or artifically concocted on the back of mysterious inflationary
intra RB-Govt borrowing of extreme levels ? ;)

What will further lock downs bring ?

The Local economy may seem not so bad against other Covid-19 afflicted,
it depends on what it is compared against & what the tints of the day are .. ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

Company tax could be raised a bit. 29% to get that under the 30% virtue signal figure.

More imputation credits for kiwis so less tax. ;)

[Snoopy]

Company tax could be raised a bit. 29% to get that under the 30% virtue signal figure.

More imputation credits for kiwis so less tax. ;)

I saw the smilie but just to make things clear. Raising the company tax rate would generate more imputation credits sure. And withholding tax on dividends for shareholders would reduce to offset the increase in imputation credits. However, without a change in personal tax rates there would be no difference in the overall tax bill faced by shareholders.

SNOOPY

[Bjauck]

G7 agree to a global minimum company rate of 15% (Biden had originally wanted 21%). They also agree to plans to tax companies in the countries where they conduct business.

It had always seemed bizarre that multinationals could effectively choose a country, which had a low tax regime, in which to book their profits. Costs to governments from Covid spurred on the agreement.

G7 is just the 7 largest "developed" capitalist economies. However it is a start.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-57368247

[Sideshow Bob]

G7 agree to a global minimum company rate of 15% (Biden had originally wanted 21%). They also agree to plans to tax companies in the countries where they conduct business.

It had always seemed bizarre that multinationals could effectively choose a country, which had a low tax regime, in which to book their profits. Costs to governments from Covid spurred on the agreement.

G7 is just the 7 largest "developed" capitalist economies. However it is a start.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-57368247

I found it hilarious on TVNZ last night - they used the example of Google, and stated they had approx $800m in revenue in NZ and paid I think $2.3m in tax - only 0.3%!! Taxing revenue now?

Then David Parker was on there saying if big companies paid more - then less tax to pay for individual taxpayers. Yeah right!!!!! Anyone waiting for a tax decrease based on this will be waiting until the temperature in hell goes sub-zero.

[Panda-NZ-]

They are subject to a revenue tax but businesses can claim it all back since its tax deductible (gst).

Consumers still get slugged though.

[dobby41]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/03/cyprus-block-eu-adoption-joe-biden-minimum-corporate-tax-multinationals

The NZ Corporate Tax rate at 28% suggests that NZ Companies are being ripped off & overtaxed on the international standards
suggested of 15% ? ;)

NZ is one of the few countries which have imputation credits for shareholders.
NZ, Australia and Malta.
A very fair deal for shareholders.

PS - that 15% would be the minimum rate, it isn't the average or standard rate. Australia is 30% (or 27.5% for 'Base Rate Entities')

[bull....]

if australia drops there rate to 15% not many companies will be left on the NZX. only be as a secondary listing.
therefore NZ have no choice but to lower company tax if the g7 announcement becomes reality and countries start lowering rates

[Panda-NZ-]

Large parts of the NZX are already owned overseas and it will simply increase.

JP Morgan owns 15% of fisher and paykel plus the additional 10% for blackrock, vangaurd.
NZ can do what it likes since we're a sovereign country.

[bull....]

Large parts of the NZX are already owned overseas and it will simply increase.

JP morgan owns 15% of fisher and paykel plus the additional 10% for blackrock, vangaurd.
NZ can do what it likes since we're a soveriegn country.

hence why the NZX has under performed this year ..... those oversea's investors have lost some faith in NZ

[Panda-NZ-]

There are more years than 'this year' I think.

[Bjauck]

Wrong link.

[nztx]

They are subject to a revenue tax but businesses can claim it all back since its tax deductible (gst).

Consumers still get slugged though.


That's dead right & just which party introduced GST, replacing other duties levies etc

AND incidentally also making promises on Personal Income Tax being at what level within 20 years
of GST being introduced which they have also conveniently been oblivious on honouring up on ? ;)

Who is ripping off & slugging who off exactly in light of this ? ;)

[nztx]

NZ is one of the few countries which have imputation credits for shareholders.
NZ, Australia and Malta.
A very fair deal for shareholders.

PS - that 15% would be the minimum rate, it isn't the average or standard rate. Australia is 30% (or 27.5% for 'Base Rate Entities')


Wherever did (if my memory is correct) recognition of corporate tax paid by way of credits attached to dividends paid elsewhere go ?

AUSTRALIA comes to mind - Franking credits still exist in Oz - next to useless to Kiwi stakeholders directly, other than
perhaps reducing Withholding tax extracted I imagine .. ;

[Nor]

if australia drops there rate to 15% not many companies will be left on the NZX. only be as a secondary listing.
therefore NZ have no choice but to lower company tax if the g7 announcement becomes reality and countries start lowering rates
Where a company is listed is not necessarily where it is headquartered. eg Xero.

[bull....]

I wonder what's going to happen to our funny little NZ market. I'm just not feeling the nzx50 at the moment. I see the ASX200 has just hit all time highs this afternoon. The world wants what Australia has. What has NZ got to offer?

asx up 11% YTD , NZ down 10% YTD. could you argue it has anything to do with the pro- growth policies of aus vrs NZ policies ? anyway getting ready for the asx open might see some more gains today

[Bjauck]

NZ is one of the few countries which have imputation credits for shareholders.
NZ, Australia and Malta.
A very fair deal for shareholders.

PS - that 15% would be the minimum rate, it isn't the average or standard rate. Australia is 30% (or 27.5% for 'Base Rate Entities') Other countries provide a dividend allowance, before income tax is levied, and/or additional pensions and non-pension investment schemes with no or low tax rates.

[Panda-NZ-]

asx up 11% YTD , NZ down 10% YTD. could you argue it has anything to do with the pro- growth policies of aus vrs NZ policies ? anyway getting ready for the asx open might see some more gains today

They've only just recovered to their pre-pandemic level. While we burst through it months ago.

Corona free unlike Victoria so more gains on the way.

[Panda-NZ-]

Aussie Jobkeeper still being paid in some cases I believe.. 12 months vs 12 weeks for NZ's subsidy.

[Panda-NZ-]

Job Vacancies surge past the pre-covid levels.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/job-vacancies-surge-past-pre-covid-levels/TDSYLI57KU6XDBWONRHABRGKFY/

[bull....]

bitcoin approaching key support around 30k , might be a big woosh down if it doesnt hold

[kiora]

Is that a WOOOOOSH@#### or just a WOOoosh type of woosh?

It will be interesting

[bull....]

Is that a WOOOOOSH@#### or just a WOOoosh type of woosh?

It will be interesting

guess it depends on the panic lol

[nztx]

"Energy Cuckoo's lost & dreaming in the Woods" it seems:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125396859/never-again-cost-to-taxpayers-of-tui-oilfield-cleanup-balloons-to-349m

'Never again': cost to taxpayers of Tui oilfield clean-up balloons to $349m



The cost to taxpayers of decommissioning the Tui oil field off Taranaki has more than doubled to $394 million, Energy Minister Megan Woods has confirmed.

But Woods told a select committee on Thursday that she was determined the situation would not be repeated.




But the Government was forced to take over the oil field last year and pick up the tab for the clean-up after production at the field ceased and Tamarind Taranaki collapsed into receivership.


Well who else left standing with a few pennies was there to pay Clean Up bill ? ;)

What taxes, duties, royalties, licence & permit costs were extracted by Govt over the life of the field ?

Obviously not small syphon-offs either that were extracted by Govt ;)



The Government set aside $154m last year to pay for the work.



But Woods said it had to set aside an additional $195m in this year’s Budget because the original cost estimate was based on a 2015 study by Tamarind that had proved to be inaccurate.


Well that's nice .. a major bit of buck passing and very convenient too - supposedly no-one from Woods' Energy-Less Department bothered to think to open their eyes and do a bit of forward lateral thinking on the real projected clean up costs forward .. ;)



This is a situation we never want to be in again,” Woods told MPs.

Yeah right..


“This is a situation which was created because of a gap in the legislation which we closed when we became the Government,” she said.

Aha


The gap meant that the same level of scrutiny was not applied when ownership of an oilfield was transferred as was applied when an operator originally requested a permit to drill.

“We changed the law in 2018 to make sure we never got into that situation again,” Woods said.


That's nice, but really ? All the boys & girls up the back were probably nodding, but..


So what will a little more scrutiny do to change anything, if the encumbent operators / owners are headed down
the gurgler with no dough on a field in it's closing years and no-one fronts to tidy up ?

How many more of these fields are there, where time is going to be up, before Woods & her mates exit the stage ? ;)

Will they have to empty their purse on the Govt front desk on arriving first ? ;)

What happens if none do ?

What happens if none find it economic or have interest looking at end of life fields ? ;)

Where does the buck stop then ?

If Woods' Ministry of Energy-Less were able to do such a good job on this tidy up on the estimates of forward costings, will they do any better on others ?


Sorry .. forgot .. there will be no new fields , no new wells because no-one wants to deal with the current back the
front administration and many explorers are relinquishing their permits etc here hurriedly to depart fast, if they
haven't already aiming to pop up in more exploration friendly territories elsewhere globally ;)


Must be why NZ Energy Explorers are digging in over yonder & further away too .. ;)


Not too far a journey either -- the nearest friendlier territory just happens to be across the ditch - darlings ;)


The levels of Govt squawking on this one are as good as their various Phantom House Building schemes
to date which is yet another portfolio on just which Ministers desk again now ? - right ;)

[bull....]

Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html

all transitory inflation , rates barely moved , markets steady to up in the US ..... business as usual.

but at the local in nz im sure my food bill got quite a jump last week and of course my rates bill is going to jump this year and my petrol and utilities are well up this yr but dont worry its transitory my 1% cpi adjusted pay rise should cover it.

[bull....]

ECB Piles on Stimulus Even With Most Upbeat Risk View Since 2018
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde renewed a pledge to deliver faster bond buying even as officials acknowledged for the first time since 2018 that the euro-zone economy is no longer overshadowed by risks to its growth outlook.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-10/ecb-renews-pledge-on-faster-bond-buying-to-ensure-crisis-rebound?srnd=premium-asia

hence why europe one of the best places for your cash this year

[Bobdn]

....those Old Economy European companies really helping out like BP, Total, and BHP etc. Not that anyone uses anything that they produce anymore, like oil. We're all driving electric cars now you see and products travel around the world via Hyperloop.

[Bjauck]

Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html

all transitory inflation , rates barely moved , markets steady to up in the US ..... business as usual.

but at the local in nz im sure my food bill got quite a jump last week and of course my rates bill is going to jump this year and my petrol and utilities are well up this yr but dont worry its transitory my 1% cpi adjusted pay rise should cover it. Inequality in NZ too is booming! Inflation bites at the wage earners. The government tries to impose wage moderation while house prices have been skyrocketing. So moderation for wage earners while asset owners reep the rewards from government policy?

Those with equity in a house and other assets have been watching their values increase, so a feel good factor there. Those with assets (predominately real estate in NZ) are more likely to vote?

[arekaywhy]

all part of the plan of course...inflation = stealth tax and as a bonus it rips the ladder up behind those who wish to rule over us

[Zaphod]

all part of the plan of course...inflation = stealth tax and as a bonus it rips the ladder up behind those who wish to rule over us

But the CPI is only at circa 1%, so there can't be a problem! At least that's the line my Labour supporting colleagues always produce.

[Tomtom]

I don’t pretend to fully understand the causes of inflation but with the workforce across most developed countries now aging, arable farmland likely declining due to drought and a fossil fuel phase-out, women having mostly returned to the workforce surely future inflation is likely to be higher? Yes, you still have technology weighing on inflation, but now you have factors weighing against that.

In terms of Age demographics (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.DPND?locations=NZ-1W-AU-US-GB), Arable land (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.DPND?locations=NZ-1W-AU-US-GB) and Women in workforce (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TOTL.FE.ZS?locations=1W-NZ-GB-US-AU) etc. it might seem to a casual observer that inflation would also rise now trends have stabilised or are reversing?

[Tomtom]

Double post.

[bull....]

fed meeting this week , im not expecting much change this meeting.

this site is very slow to load or post on frequently now so ill be only posting randomly on here from now on.

[Old mate]

That's a shame bull I enjoy your posts but this site is painfull at times.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

March quarter GDP +1.6% vs. RBNZ estimate -0.6%

Adrian must really be scratching his head. So concerning that such a fool is in charge of something that is arguably more powerful than what the PM can do.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110887/new-zealand-economy-far-outstripped-predictions-first-quarter-year-and-16-gdp-rise-will

[BlackPeter]

March quarter GDP +1.6% vs. RBNZ estimate -0.6%

Adrian must really be scratching his head. So concerning that such a fool is in charge of something that is arguably more powerful than what the PM can do.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110887/new-zealand-economy-far-outstripped-predictions-first-quarter-year-and-16-gdp-rise-will

Only a fool would think that it is possible to forecast GDP growth (or any other economic parameter) with such a precision - particularly in unprecedented times like this.

Who did you say thought that the forecast was not good enough?

[percy]

I very much doubt even Sammy The Seal would have got it even near right.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Only a fool would think that it is possible to forecast GDP growth (or any other economic parameter) with such a precision - particularly in unprecedented times like this.

Who did you say thought that the forecast was not good enough?

When your job is literally to have your finger on the pulse of the economy this is unacceptable. Decisions are made from their forecasts. When a realistic range of possibilities is say +/- 150bps, a 220bps miss is a shocker.

[workingdad]

"Energy Cuckoo's lost & dreaming in the Woods" it seems:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125396859/never-again-cost-to-taxpayers-of-tui-oilfield-cleanup-balloons-to-349m

'Never again': cost to taxpayers of Tui oilfield clean-up balloons to $349m









Well who else left standing with a few pennies was there to pay Clean Up bill ? ;)

What taxes, duties, royalties, licence & permit costs were extracted by Govt over the life of the field ?

Obviously not small syphon-offs either that were extracted by Govt ;)








Well that's nice .. a major bit of buck passing and very convenient too - supposedly no-one from Woods' Energy-Less Department bothered to think to open their eyes and do a bit of forward lateral thinking on the real projected clean up costs forward .. ;)




Yeah right..



Aha




That's nice, but really ? All the boys & girls up the back were probably nodding, but..


So what will a little more scrutiny do to change anything, if the encumbent operators / owners are headed down
the gurgler with no dough on a field in it's closing years and no-one fronts to tidy up ?

How many more of these fields are there, where time is going to be up, before Woods & her mates exit the stage ? ;)

Will they have to empty their purse on the Govt front desk on arriving first ? ;)

What happens if none do ?

What happens if none find it economic or have interest looking at end of life fields ? ;)

Where does the buck stop then ?

If Woods' Ministry of Energy-Less were able to do such a good job on this tidy up on the estimates of forward costings, will they do any better on others ?


Sorry .. forgot .. there will be no new fields , no new wells because no-one wants to deal with the current back the
front administration and many explorers are relinquishing their permits etc here hurriedly to depart fast, if they
haven't already aiming to pop up in more exploration friendly territories elsewhere globally ;)


Must be why NZ Energy Explorers are digging in over yonder & further away too .. ;)


Not too far a journey either -- the nearest friendlier territory just happens to be across the ditch - darlings ;)


The levels of Govt squawking on this one are as good as their various Phantom House Building schemes
to date which is yet another portfolio on just which Ministers desk again now ? - right ;)

Oil company makes good coin pulling it out of the ground, they set aside a certain amount of money per barrel extracted to cover the costs of decommissioning. They sell the field to another less credible company including the little piggy bank full of money for decommissioning. Less credible company siphon off all the money overseas, cries foul - there’s not enough oil anymore, we are going broke……. Off the go leaving the bill for tax payers.

Yep…… yep…… yep…… yep……

[Panda-NZ-]

Yes all the "alternative" ideas seem to benefit overseas people more than people living here.

[greater fool]

Worth a read punters. Time for a portfolio/strategy review?

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/110600/reserve-bank-has-provided-go-signal-financial-markets-start-pushing-interest-rates

The drumbeats are getting louder...........................

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518808/anz-predicts-february-ocr-hike-following-gdp-growth.html
"Latest GDP figures show the economy grew by 1.6% in the three months to March, beating forecasts of -0.6%.
The surprisingly strong data has prompted ANZ's team of economists to bring forward their rate hike predictions."


https://thebull.com.au/asx-has-biggest-fall-in-four-weeks/
"Australian Market Report: Shares had their biggest fall in more than four weeks on the Australian market as
investors responded to the prospect of global interest rates moving higher."


https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-opens-lower-feds-taper-talks-drag-down-tech-shares-2021-06-17/
"Weakness in tech shares pulled Wall Street lower at the open on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled
it could start tapering its stimulus earlier than expected, piling pressure on a sector that is seen as vulnerable to higher interest rates."


https://apnews.com/article/inflation-health-coronavirus-pandemic-business-380a7fc237023194d94af689f13a5ef7
"The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it may act sooner than previously planned to start dialing back the
low-interest-rate policies that have helped fuel a swift rebound from the pandemic recession but have also coincided
with rising inflation."

[Panda-NZ-]

Europe = a shade of red to end the week.

[Panda-NZ-]

What I like about the NZX is it has a more of an ability to withstand higher interest rates in comparison to most other markets.

[Bobdn]

NZD falling more dramatically than US shares over the last two days. I guess this will help reduce the sting in USF.nzx USG.nzx, USV, USM and USS when the market opens next week. It's been painful at times holding these as the NZD has surged. Can't believe how well the NZD had been doing considering our vulnerable economy.

Hopefully the NZD will keep on falling so I can feel wealthier in NZD terms ;)

Roger Kerr makes sense:

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/110936/roger-j-kerr-says-currency-market-landscape-has-dramatically-changed-past-week

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/110826/roger-j-kerr-says-us-dollar-has-seemingly-broken-out-its-shackles-recent-weeks

[nztx]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125529986/covid19-nz-wellington-moving-into-alert-level-2-tonight

Covid-19 NZ: Wellington moving into alert level 2 tonight


Was the glass towers on the hill housing a filthy bunch of Politicians a place visited ? ;)

[kiwico]

Was the glass towers on the hill housing a filthy bunch of Politicians a place visited ? ;)

I think the Australian in question showed some taste and didn't visit them. He did visit an awful lot of eateries though. And every pre-Covid case seems to visit a chemist despite claiming they're not ill.

[Bobdn]

The US market keeps on trucking. I sold a little bit this morning when the market opened at 1.30am (VOO - Vanguard's 500 ETF and the oil ETF XLE) to give me cash to live off for the next couple of years. I'd been sailing a little close to the wind over the last six months and didn't have much cash on hand to do much of anything. So I'm putting the selling into the category of "raising cash to completely fill up my cash bucket" rather than the "getting the f*** out of dodge" category.

So I'm still staying at the party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7KM7dDRDUo

I do enjoy the WealthTrack channel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN8IsvNLKcI