Black Monday

[peat]

John Ryder categorically states...

"Equity markets are overbought and heading for a short-term correction. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at extreme levels."


Im still selling some here and there into this.... re-established shorts on the SP500. I know when I'm wrong tho.... at 3680
took a little off my oiler... probably too soon.... but... what JR says.

[Timesurfer]

4. Get rid of the RMA ASAP.

The RMA is in the process of being replaced - not removed. And it will be replaced by several pieces of legislation not one.



4 - allow people to build whatever they want next door to you

Hit the nail on the head. People don't want less rules, they want more rules - all for their neighbour.
So don't expect red tape to go anywhere soon.

[bull....]

Jacinda Ardern says public bears some responsibility for housing crisis after failed taxation attempts
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/jacinda-ardern-says-public-bears-some-responsibility-housing-crisis-after-failed-taxation-attempts

why raise taxes ? just build the infrastructure and increase supply. is it really that hard.

[BlackPeter]

Jacinda Ardern says public bears some responsibility for housing crisis after failed taxation attempts
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/jacinda-ardern-says-public-bears-some-responsibility-housing-crisis-after-failed-taxation-attempts

why raise taxes ? just build the infrastructure and increase supply. is it really that hard.

Shouldn't be hard, but neither National nor Labor managed to do something about it over the last 20 years or so. Maybe it is one of these things where talk is cheap and easy but achieving something really tough?

[Baa_Baa]

Jacinda Ardern says public bears some responsibility for housing crisis after failed taxation attempts
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/jacinda-ardern-says-public-bears-some-responsibility-housing-crisis-after-failed-taxation-attempts

why raise taxes ? just build the infrastructure and increase supply. is it really that hard.

I wouldn’t be blaming the public for under supply of infrastructure, the public can’t fix that, but likewise blaming the government as so many do is imo misplaced as well.

When it all boils down government only has money and laws and administration, there are some powerful levers there that can expedite development but government per se does not build anything. Nothing, it builds nothing.

There is unprecedented amounts of money from government, a willingness to relax the regulatory situation and plenty of administration to oversee development, but they, government don’t build any of it, not a thing,

So where are the real problems? Not in government per se. They can’t and won’t suddenly start building stuff! The problem imo is, regulation is cumbersome, they can relax that. Demand is booming, they can’t fix that, except indirectly ameliorate it a bit. Supply is inadequate, but no amount of money fixes that.

So why is supply inadequate? Well, partly because it takes a long time to build stuff and the supply side builders and construction and fabricators and the whole supply chain respond to the current and predictable market but don’t over respond because next thing they know some other event happens and there’s not enough work or money.

Tbh if NZ really wants to fix housing supply, it needs to embrace public private partnerships, foreign builders at scale, rapid development through cookie cutter design and construction, build off site at scale, erect on site quickly.

Simple as it sounds, despite unprecedented money, which the government is throwing at the ‘problem’ (massive eye watering money) the build side still relies on domestic build capacity which is inadequate, and design build methodology which is woefully slow and cannot easily scale to meet demand in a timely way.

It’s easy and convenient to blame the government, but doesn’t get to the problem, nor does Jacinda blaming the public (naive). It’s really about relaxing the regulatory environment and encouraging new methodology that enables design, build, construct .., at scale, in a timely way. Other countries do it, so can we.

[Balance]

Jacinda Ardern says public bears some responsibility for housing crisis after failed taxation attempts
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/jacinda-ardern-says-public-bears-some-responsibility-housing-crisis-after-failed-taxation-attempts

why raise taxes ? just build the infrastructure and increase supply. is it really that hard.

Always thd fault of others, never her and her team of incompetents.

Would not know how to run a bath, let alone a government which delivers on promises.

[Balance]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/431804/ird-cracks-down-on-residential-property-investors-shirking-bright-line

IRD targeting property investors who have not disclosed or paid tax under the bright line rule.

Means investors will hang onto their properties longer, reducing supply to the market and boosting property prices even more.

[bull....]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/431804/ird-cracks-down-on-residential-property-investors-shirking-bright-line

IRD targeting property investors who have not disclosed or paid tax under the bright line rule.

Means investors will hang onto their properties longer, reducing supply to the market and boosting property prices even more.

exactly and raising the home grant will add fuel as well. councils are not releasing land as they dont have money for infrastructure.

[bull....]

bitcoin nearing my 20k target , could be short term who knows lol but the rise in bitcoin seems to be at the expense of gold.

anyway on digital currencies it looks like they are being ramped up to replace paper money sooner than you think. china just conducted a trial of there digital currency in real time and the fed is ramping up there work into one. ( digital currencies give central banks lots more tools in there tool box to smooth the economies) heres a article on whats coming

Programmable Digital Currencies Are Coming - Here's What That Means
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/programmable-digital-currencies-are-coming-heres-what-that-means-2020-08-18

[dobby41]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/431804/ird-cracks-down-on-residential-property-investors-shirking-bright-line

IRD targeting property investors who have not disclosed or paid tax under the bright line rule.

Means investors will hang onto their properties longer, reducing supply to the market and boosting property prices even more.

Good that they will target those who break the rules.
Supply of housing means houses that are available - how does not selling a house reduce supply? The house can still house someone.
'Supply to the market' - does selling a house on a regular basis help anything? The issues is not enough houses rather than not selling them often enough.
Rearranging the ownership type for houses does nothing for supply.

[Biscuit]

bitcoin nearing my 20k target , could be short term who knows lol but the rise in bitcoin seems to be at the expense of gold.

anyway on digital currencies it looks like they are being ramped up to replace paper money sooner than you think. china just conducted a trial of there digital currency in real time and the fed is ramping up there work into one. ( digital currencies give central banks lots more tools in there tool box to smooth the economies) heres a article on whats coming

Programmable Digital Currencies Are Coming - Here's What That Means


https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/programmable-digital-currencies-are-coming-heres-what-that-means-2020-08-18


Interesting article. I can see the attraction for central banks/govt and I can also see why the populace would be attracted to alternatives (eg. bitcoin) outside the system but I would think the govt, having gone to the effort of transferring to a digital currency, would want to eliminate the digital competition. After all, the benefits of an official digital currency would depend on it being the only significant digital currency. I can't see that being good for bitcoin?

[bull....]

A recent Supreme Court decision will change the nature and impact of class actions in New Zealand, with consequences for consumers, investors, corporates, litigation funders and insurers

It seems likely that opt-out class actions will become more common in New Zealand. If the Australian and American experience of opt-out class actions is anything to go by, this will likely mean corporates, and particularly companies listed on the NZX or ASX, may face a greater risk of such a claim

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/108228/recent-supreme-court-decision-will-change-nature-and-impact-class-actions

so litigation funders will move on NZ now against companies that do bad stuff .... no more bending the rules eh

[bull....]

markets looking good into end of year .... wonder when santa will come this year or was he early this year in november?

on the local front

Australia Sounds Alarm on Trade as China Row Slams Farm Exports


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-06/australia-sounds-alarm-on-trade-as-china-row-slams-farm-exports?srnd=premium-asia

potential for NZ to sell more?


Zespri signs on with Chinese state-owned firm to buy illicit SunGold kiwifruit

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123615384/zespri-signs-on-with-chinese-stateowned-firm-to-buy-illicit-sungold-kiwifruit

looks like zespri has a lose lose situation , i thought china was all into win win lol anyway they are now forced into a joint venture with a chinese firm and must pay ransom money to local kiwifruit growers who stole there ip.

this is how china develops there local market according to the link below they force joint ventures take the IP and know how and use it to develop there own market. So in the longer term zespri market in china will stall and potentially decline as local firms replace there product with there own.

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/How%20Chinese%20Companies%20Facilitate%20Tech%20Tr ansfer%20from%20the%20US.pdf

Communities will suffer' as $28b Reserve Bank scheme advantages big banks

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123591089/communities-will-suffer-as-28b-reserve-bank-scheme-advantages-big-banks

more money for the aussies banks at the expense of locally owned

[JBmurc]

The U.S stock market has rose $5.2 trillion so far in 2020.

During that same period 5 million people have become unemployed.

The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is simply astonishing...

[Jaa]

Zespri signs on with Chinese state-owned firm to buy illicit SunGold kiwifruit

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/123615384/zespri-signs-on-with-chinese-stateowned-firm-to-buy-illicit-sungold-kiwifruit

looks like zespri has a lose lose situation , i thought china was all into win win lol anyway they are now forced into a joint venture with a chinese firm and must pay ransom money to local kiwifruit growers who stole there ip.

this is how china develops there local market according to the link below they force joint ventures take the IP and know how and use it to develop there own market. So in the longer term zespri market in china will stall and potentially decline as local firms replace there product with there own.

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/How%20Chinese%20Companies%20Facilitate%20Tech%20Tr ansfer%20from%20the%20US.pdf



The best of a bad situation I guess and some irony in China re-acquiring kiwifruit from NZ. Bad news long term for Zespri, Seeka and the local Kiwifruit industry but is just how the CCP parts of China does business. Respect for intellectual property or other's creativity is not a consideration and there's no legal system to help you. Business and investors need to see the relationship and market for what it is.


“We hope that with our world-leading management technology and best practices, we can help Chinese growers improve their growing techniques and increase their income,” Zespri chief executive Daniel Mathieson was quoted as saying.

This is what I would say if I was CEO but it is not what I would do. The last thing Zespri should do is teach their involuntary state owned Chinese partner best practices in how to grow the fruit and manage their orchards. Once the partner has learned all their is to know, Zespri will have a new global competitor at half the price. Hopefully we are not still this naive. After the Lion Nathan, Rakon, Fonterra, and other disasters with Chinese state or state approved partners.

All businesses/industries reliant on the China market should have a risk premium applied.

[bull....]

The best of a bad situation I guess and some irony in China re-acquiring kiwifruit from NZ. Bad news long term for Zespri, Seeka and the local Kiwifruit industry but is just how the CCP parts of China does business. Respect for intellectual property or other's creativity is not a consideration and there's no legal system to help you. Business and investors need to see the relationship and market for what it is.



This is what I would say if I was CEO but it is not what I would do. The last thing Zespri should do is teach their involuntary state owned Chinese partner best practices in how to grow the fruit and manage their orchards. Once the partner has learned all their is to know, Zespri will have a new global competitor at half the price. Hopefully we are not still this naive. After the Lion Nathan, Rakon, Fonterra, and other disasters with Chinese state or state approved partners.

All businesses/industries reliant on the China market should have a risk premium applied.

thats what fonterra did with teaching the chinese joint venture partner best practice for farm management .... and we know what happened to fonterra after

[Joshuatree]

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12958950 China getting meaner.Bullies.

[BlackPeter]

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12958950 China getting meaner.Bullies.

Chinese are great learners. US president de-elect taught them how to treat trading partners.

... but they probably didn't needed Trumps lessons, maybe they are just courteous and modelling their behavior on Australia?

Australia is breaking human rights regularly (asylum seekers, deportees, war crimes). Australia is breaking trade regulations as a matter of course (non tariff import restrictions) and very happy to change international relationships unilaterally. Bullied NZ often enough around, didn't they?

Australia is still arrogant enough to think they can lecture others in these matters despite ignoring international agreements they signed. Maybe they picked this time the wrong victim? China is not NZ and just asking how high they have to jump if the bully asks them to do so? China is hitting back.

While I don't like the Chinese system, government or human rights records - good on them for standing up to the Australian bullies.

Maybe Australia found somebody who can teach them a lesson or two ...

[Biscuit]

US president de-elect taught them how to treat trading partners..........
modelling their behavior on Australia.....
Maybe Australia found somebody who can teach them a lesson or two ......

Problem is, the only lesson anyone is learning is that you "win" by bullying people weaker than you. Not a great lesson in any context but particularly bad in this context if you happen to be a small, weak, isolated trading nation.

[peat]

markets appear to be losing momentum ...... imo.

[BlackPeter]

Problem is, the only lesson anyone is learning is that you "win" by bullying people weaker than you. Not a great lesson in any context but particularly bad in this context if you happen to be a small, weak, isolated trading nation.

I know ... just tried to remind people that it was the West (including Australia) introducing the internationally more and more prevailing bully culture. We always have been happy with the law of the jungle as long as we were been the stronger ones.

Futile to complain about the situation and difficult to change the rules of engagement as soon as we see us on the losing end. However - I think first Australia should clean up their own record and then they could friendly ask for China to play fair as well ...

[Biscuit]

I know ... just tried to remind people that it was the West (including Australia) introducing the internationally more and more prevailing bully culture. We always have been happy with the law of the jungle as long as we were been the stronger ones.

Futile to complain about the situation and difficult to change the rules of engagement as soon as we see us on the losing end. However - I think first Australia should clean up their own record and then they could friendly ask for China to play fair as well ...

Yes, it all goes back to Trump and his band of idiots. Hopefully sanity will start to reassert itself now, if it is not too late.

[bull....]

Australia Passes Law That Can Scrap China Belt and Road Accords
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-08/australia-passes-law-that-can-scrap-china-belt-and-road-accords?srnd=premium-asia

[bull....]

LONDON — The European Central Bank on Thursday expanded its massive monetary stimulus program by another 500 billion euros

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/10/ecb-expands-bond-buying-as-coronavirus-resurgence-weighs.html

more central bank stimulus , US will reach there before xmas is my guess. i see weed is going mainstream in US with celebrities entering the fray now, i read of two now mike tyson and now jay z but i guess when all these type of people are entering you know it is going mainstream normal.

Jay-Z becomes the latest cultural influencer to launch his own cannabis brand
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/10/jay-z-becomes-latest-cultural-influencer-to-launch-a-cannabis-brand.html

Unfortunately for NZ we will miss the boat again we missed the hemp industry years ago cause they thought hemp was a drug lol

this weeks traditionally quiet to down week for stocks in the US so whats happening is perfectly in tune.

[bull....]

House prices skyrocket to new high, most properties sold since 2007 - REINZ


According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), 9885 residential properties were sold last month, up a massive 29.6 percent from November 2019. That's the highest number of properties sold since March 2007 and the most November sales since 2006.
The median national house price jumped to a new high of $749,000, an increase of 18.5 percent from $632,000 a year ago. It's also up $24,000 since October.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/12/house-prices-skyrocket-to-new-high-most-properties-sold-since-2007-reinz.html

should get double digit increases next year too unless the world collapses or ardern does something radical both probably low risk events

[see weed]

Market not open today? Has it crashed?

[Balance]

So if you think 2020 has been a fantastic year to be in the sharemarket, wait for 2021.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tidal-wave-cash-hit-markets-223040323.html

There has been so much $$$ created out of thin air and so much savings still sitting in cash - a result of the fear factor driving many investors to cash up and wait on the sideline this year.

There is in fact more cash sitting in banks than there was during the GFC.

Where will that cash go?

[JSwan]

So if you think 2020 has been a fantastic year to be in the sharemarket, wait for 2021.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tidal-wave-cash-hit-markets-223040323.html

There has been so much $$$ created out of thin air and so much savings still sitting in cash - a result of the fear factor driving many investors to cash up and wait on the sideline this year.

There is in fact more cash sitting in banks than there was during the GFC.

Where will that cash go?

Obviously the cash will stay in the bank, duh :p

[Entrep]

So if you think 2020 has been a fantastic year to be in the sharemarket, wait for 2021.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tidal-wave-cash-hit-markets-223040323.html

There has been so much $$$ created out of thin air and so much savings still sitting in cash - a result of the fear factor driving many investors to cash up and wait on the sideline this year.

There is in fact more cash sitting in banks than there was during the GFC.

Where will that cash go?

What a poorly disguised advertorial. Hope you didn't sign up for the event then the course/fund/scam they are pushing.

[Balance]

What a poorly disguised advertorial. Hope you didn't sign up for the event then the course/fund/scam they are pushing.

Says Entrep who panicked this year and as they say, the rest is history.

[Entrep]

Says Entrep who panicked this year and as they say, the rest is history.

Says Balance, so deluded he/she thinks they have any insight whatsoever on my finances and that I update ST continuously on my moves (I'm flattered you would hold me in such esteem though). I hope you didn't send that link to "your friend" either, we know how they (you?) can get themselves into trouble investing so easily.

[bull....]

US markets still consolidating above break-out levels , seasonally still behaving as normal santa might give us a burst into end of year/ new year.
aus market doing its seasonally weakness but if goes as usual should swing positive towards end of year into new year

[bull....]

bitcoin above 20k , around this level was my call after we mentioned the big breakout above 10k so has doubled in price in a few mths pretty amazing really.
its in over brought territory now on a few time zones but can stay like that in a strong trend.

Bitcoin breaks above $20,000 for the first time ever
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/bitcoin-breaks-above-20000-for-the-first-time-ever.html

[bull....]

bitcoin on a tear still.
Also the nzd which we mentioned would rocket higher following the rbnz meeting and then following robinsons comments but most of all its all because of the USD falling hard at the moment.
people buying bitcoin and to a lesser extent now gold as a hedge against the usd fall

[Timesurfer]

Anyone else a billionaire on the ASB platform?
Something going on at the bank - I wonder if they have had hackers or just an unexpected result from a software upgrade?

[bull....]

Records tumble as NZX50 cracks 13,000
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517991/records-tumble-as-nzx50-cracks-13-000.html

seasonals still looking good.
what a crazy year , time for us to all reflect spend time with family and friends and hope for a better new year and maybe spend some gains over the feastive season. merry xmas

[Entrep]

Records tumble as NZX50 cracks 13,000
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517991/records-tumble-as-nzx50-cracks-13-000.html

seasonals still looking good.
what a crazy year , time for us to all reflect spend time with family and friends and hope for a better new year and maybe spend some gains over the feastive season. merry xmas

what do you mean hope for a better new year? yes the lockdowns sucked as do the travel restrictions, but in terms of the theme of this site, anyone with any sort of assets has made out like a bandit this year.

[bull....]

bitcoin still on a tear , 30k soon ? make a 200% gain from the 10k breakout level . more whales getting in now driving the price higher

[bull....]

what do you mean hope for a better new year? yes the lockdowns sucked as do the travel restrictions, but in terms of the theme of this site, anyone with any sort of assets has made out like a bandit this year.

been a great year for asset holders for sure. spending some of my loot gained this year on a big house reno at the moment ( as i would like to have something tangible in case the market crashes lol )

hope your cryto's making a killing bitcoin best asset class the last 3 mths getting way overbrought at 90rsi on the weekly looks like my holiday shortly will time my exit nicely.

[bull....]

big week this week as its the last week of work for the year before a holiday but also its a very important week statistically for the stock market

To re-cap

First five days’ indicator, which has a solid track record at predicting year, off to good start


When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S&P 500 has been positive more than 80% of the time at year-end with an average gain of about 13%, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/januarys-first-five-days-has-a-track-record-at-predicting-full-year.html

and we cant forget about raving about bitcoin , etherum biggest santa rally this year in this emerging asset class. ride the wave lol but remember dont be to greedy.

If you dont think its an emerging asset class i suggest you read the article below again and understand its future maybe not in these virtual currencies that exist today to provide awareness and acceptance but in the central bank digital currencies coming in the future with china leading the way.

Programmable Digital Currencies Are Coming - Here's What That Means


This Fed-enabled digital dollar will also be designed with an ability to bypass the banking system

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/programmable-digital-currencies-are-coming-heres-what-that-means-2020-08-18

[Joshuatree]

Have appreciated your contrary and big picture posts Bull.My memory and tech skill set isn't up to owning bitcoin directly,sounds like a dumb question but are there any/many listed companies that invest in bitcoin etc?

[Snoopy]

Programmable Digital Currencies Are Coming - Here's What That Means

This Fed-enabled digital dollar will also be designed with an ability to bypass the banking system

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/programmable-digital-currencies-are-coming-heres-what-that-means-2020-08-18



Interesting new take on Bitcoin, to be positioned as the digital currency 'outside of the system' while the government controls their own digital currency and through it their citizens.

There are a few leaps of logic though, that I don't follow.

Why would any government force everyone to use a digital currency to 'control' you when they can effectively do that already? Tax is already deducted from bank accounts. If you refuse to pay your tax, the IRD can already go into your bank account and seize the money they consider they are owed. The government can already do all the other things mentioned in that article. That means distribute money based on income level, employment status, and geographical location. There are already tax payments at the point of sale (GST). Loan to value ratio lending is already done by the current system. There is nothing in that article that isn't already being done by the existing FIAT currency system. So in that policy sense the whole argument for a separate government mandated digital currency falls flat.

EFTPOS is already 'spying' on all transactions. So a simple police warrant for your bank and mobile phone records will give a very complete picture of your movements. Short of speeding up transactions, which will mean less chance for the government to halt illegal transactions, I can't see any benefit in going to a mandated digital currency, except that it will be less trusted by some members of the public.

Ahah, you say! That is the perfect trigger to turbocharge Bitcoin. The problem with that is that if you have a Bitcoin account you would be crazy to make your physical purchases with that, if you considered it was very likely to go up in value. Every such transaction you made would be an almost certain compounding future loss through loss of investment opportunity. The only way Bitcoin could come into common use as an 'everyday purchasing tool' is if it stabalised in value. And if that happened an 'investment' in Bitcoin would never make the investor any money. The only way I can see Bitcoin stabilising is if it crashed in value, completely wiping out any chance of any future gains for investors. Such a crash would have to be severe and prolonged to get rid of the investment element from Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is to succeed as an 'outside of the system currency' it will have to lose at least 95% of its value and stay down. And because the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is zero, there is nothing to stop this happening. To satisfy the true Bitcoin believers tin a way that that will allow Bitcoin to fulfil its destiny, then such an event must occur. It is only a matter of when.

The old limited supply and demand argument doesn't hold water with Bitcoin either. Yes there is a limited supply of Bitcoin. But there is an unlimited supply of alternative cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has no intrinsic advantage over an unlimited number of digital competitors. So the illusion of 'limited supply' facing an 'unlimited rising demand' is just that. Ultimately the value of an investment is determined by the discounted value of all its generated future cashflows. For all digital currencies the summed value of their future generated cashflows (of which there aren't any) is zero. That is where the investment value of all digital currencies is ultimately heading. That doesn't mean the value of Bitcoin and other digital currencies won't go up in the short term. But if you are an 'investor' in digital currencies, don't leave it too late to get off this particular investment bus.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

Have appreciated your contrary and big picture posts Bull.My memory and tech skill set isn't up to owning bitcoin directly,sounds like a dumb question but are there any/many listed companies that invest in bitcoin etc?

OTC market in the US is where you will find many. there are some crypto funds that invest in a basket of crypto's as well. naturally crypto would be positioned in the speculative part of your portfolio

[winner69]

ASX off to great start to the year

Good sign for us

[causecelebre]

Have appreciated your contrary and big picture posts Bull.My memory and tech skill set isn't up to owning bitcoin directly,sounds like a dumb question but are there any/many listed companies that invest in bitcoin etc?

https://etfdb.com/themes/blockchain-etfs/

[Joshuatree]

Thanks. I also saw on CNBC this morn that an actual Bitcoin ETF is on the way ,maybe this year as it goes through all the regulatory requirements.

[causecelebre]

Thanks. I also saw on CNBC this morn that an actual Bitcoin ETF is on the way ,maybe this year as it goes through all the regulatory requirements.

There has been attempts for Bitcoin ETF for years. Recent changes in the SEC and greater institutional involvement may see one come up. There are plenty of derivative instrument's that can be settled in fiat avail if you don't want to physically hold

[bull....]

NZD up strong again 74c looks like next resistance.

dont forget the georgia senate election results might be around 1pm nz time may have an effect on markets

[Leftfield]

NZD up strong again 74c looks like next resistance.

dont forget the georgia senate election results might be around 1pm nz time may have an effect on markets

Indeed.... interesting week in the USA.

[Timesurfer]

Interesting new take on Bitcoin, to be positioned as the digital currency 'outside of the system' while the government controls their own digital currency and through it their citizens.

There are a few leaps of logic though, that I don't follow.

Why would any government force everyone to use a digital currency to 'control' you when they can effectively do that already? Tax is already deducted from bank accounts. If you refuse to pay your tax, the IRD can already go into your bank account and seize the money they consider they are owed. The government can already do all the other things mentioned in that article. That means distribute money based on income level, employment status, and geographical location. There are already tax payments at the point of sale (GST). Loan to value ratio lending is already done by the current system. There is nothing in that article that isn't already being done by the existing FIAT currency system. So in that policy sense the whole argument for a separate government mandated digital currency falls flat.

EFTPOS is already 'spying' on all transactions. So a simple police warrant for your bank and mobile phone records will give a very complete picture of your movements. Short of speeding up transactions, which will mean less chance for the government to halt illegal transactions, I can't see any benefit in going to a mandated digital currency, except that it will be less trusted by some members of the public.

SNOOPY

I believe you will find that there is still a significant amount of trade being conducted for cash.
No need to legalize dope to cash in on the tax if you switch to digitial currency.
Money laundering will be significantly more difficult prospect.
Federal systems finally woke up to the threat that Bitcoin and the likes of Zuckerberg, Bezos, and co are if they get established as a global currency. No control, no clipping of the ticket as money moves between borders.
I think you will find the digital war will heat up over the next 12 months as muscles are flexed.

(Not currently a player .. just watching with interest)

[peat]

Ultimately the value of an investment is determined by the discounted value of all its generated future cashflows. For all digital currencies the summed value of their future generated cashflows (of which there aren't any) is zero. That is where the investment value of all digital currencies is ultimately heading. That doesn't mean the value of Bitcoin and other digital currencies won't go up in the short term. But if you are an 'investor' in digital currencies, don't leave it too late to get off this particular investment bus.

SNOOPY

hallelujah

[Snoopy]

I believe you will find that there is still a significant amount of trade being conducted for cash.
No need to legalize dope to cash in on the tax if you switch to digitial currency.
Money laundering will be significantly more difficult prospect.
Federal systems finally woke up to the threat that Bitcoin and the likes of Zuckerberg, Bezos, and co are if they get established as a global currency. No control, no clipping of the ticket as money moves between borders.
I think you will find the digital war will heat up over the next 12 months as muscles are flexed.

(Not currently a player .. just watching with interest)


You are saying that a government mandated 'digital currency' will be a way to tax the 'cash economy' that is currently flying under the 'tax radar'? I think you have a point.

What does this say about 'bitcoin' though? It would still be less 'stable' than a government mandated digital currency. I can't see anyone asking to be paid their wages in bitcoin for example. Nevertheless, I guess there is a genuine case for bitcoin to become the de-facto currency of crime. Is that a good reason to invest in it though?

SNOOPY

[bull....]

You are saying that a government mandated 'digital currency' will be a way to tax the 'cash economy' that is currently flying under the 'tax radar'? I think you have a point.

What does this say about 'bitcoin' though? It would still be less 'stable' than a government mandated digital currency. I can't see anyone asking to be paid their wages in bitcoin for example. Nevertheless, I guess there is a genuine case for bitcoin to become the de-facto currency of crime. Is that a good reason to invest in it though?

SNOOPY

think your be paid your wages in digital NZD as for bitcoin being used as the de-facto currency of crime i dont think so. maybe a little in the past but it is dominated by speculators now.
it was the creation of cash which was the biggest crime , swindled the masses out of there gold backed wealth.

[Timesurfer]

You are saying that a government mandated 'digital currency' will be a way to tax the 'cash economy' that is currently flying under the 'tax radar'? I think you have a point.

What does this say about 'bitcoin' though? It would still be less 'stable' than a government mandated digital currency. I can't see anyone asking to be paid their wages in bitcoin for example. Nevertheless, I guess there is a genuine case for bitcoin to become the de-facto currency of crime. Is that a good reason to invest in it though?

SNOOPY

Wages paid in Bitcoin would be like paying cash under the table today - although with a "paper trail" that I am sure IRD will be looking for the powers to follow if they don't already have them.
It still stands as a viable investment as a global currency if you are looking to move money around the world, or if you think your currency is less stable.

Personally, I haven't invested in it despite the high returns on offer in recent times. It always seemed a bit of a lottery as to who would succeed and to what extent, but as it becomes mainstream I think you will see a significant shift that way. Not just from the nefarious elements.

[King1212]

Trump really is a bad loser....

[Balance]

Trump really is a bad loser....

All good stuff, King1212 - love the way he is destroying the Republican Party and getting Americans to tear at each other.

Hopefully, the world will be free from American interference, hypocrisy and the peddling of their weapons of destruction and death for a while.

Wonderful! :t_up:

[bull....]

All good stuff, King1212 - love the way he is destroying the Republican Party and getting Americans to tear at each other.

Hopefully, the world will be free from American interference, hypocrisy and the peddling of their weapons of destruction and death for a while.

Wonderful! :t_up:

to be replaced with some other country just the same , but with there own ideoligies?

[bull....]

US markets hitting new highs , blue wave not a big deal as more money printing is needed to finance the coming stimulus , infrastructure.

hope some of you had some tesla , musk nearly the richest man on the planet now thx to tesla share price being up big time now that people realize the implications of the power company he has created. huge disrupter his company is.

bitcoin still on fire as we are nearly at 40k rsi at 95 on the weekly dailies etc so im out now

cannabis stocks looking potentially good as vice president harris will look to pass laws at federal level now to make cannabis legal in all ways of life for health and recreation.

industrials and materials also good areas to look as well.

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-evans-says-probably-2024-181220082.html

Almost zero interest rates until 2024.

The boom continues.

[Joshuatree]

Inflation may be closer then we think.

https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/fredgraph-5-png.2796077/

[nztx]

Make no mistake - inflation is with us & many other nations right now ..

Money printing machines turning over frantically .. lots of additional loose Govt money injected
into economies..

Basically the same quantity or less real goods

Upwards spiral in values & prices for housing, shares & other assets - don't we &
others already have that - for those who can see & recognise it? ;)

More Readies in Circulation to Same amount of Goods - What is the likely result ?

The beady eyed bureaucrats may not be exactly reporting it as "Inflation" but in reality it is
the sneaky sort of inflation you have - when you have little or no reported Official Inflation ;
and conveniently still allows the fumbling Politicians to continue feeding feel-good BS to the
very gullable & not so bright quotients of Society (many of whom can't read or understand anyway) .

The Stats counters probably only get away with it, because their narrow vision misses the wood for the trees,
as per usual .. ;)

How many billions of Imaginary Funny Money* did NZ Treasury "create out of nowhere" for Govt
under guise of more Huge Govt Debt to RBNZ (if you like with RBNZ owned by the Govt borrowed
from Govt effectively or itself), to then inject into the economy in just 2020 alone ? ;)

* should the billions of these instead be called "Robertson's Government Debt Penny creations" instead ? ;)

[GTM 3442]

So why haven't the board of governors of the Reserve Bank fired the management team?

They haven't met the inflation target for G*d knows how long, and their QE olicies have unleashed a house price bubble-cum-disaster and a series of speculative bubbles in various other asset classes.

Faced with the consequences of their actions, the party line is "Its not our fault, it's not our problem" as they continue with the same failed policies.

Why do New Zealanders put up with it?

[Balance]

Real inflation is rampaging out there when one looks at asset prices - houses, properties, shares, art works.

Because the majority of hard working NZers are house owners however and they are ok and happy with the double digit increase in house prices, they do not have a problem with the RBNZ’s easy monetary policies :

‘Rents are included in the CPI, because they are expenditures that are "consumed" in current period of time. But house prices are not, because they are expenditures on an asset to be consumed over many years. If you own a house, you will benefit from the rising prices--if and when you sell it.’

[ralph]

Because they think she is Robin Hood ,& a lady, debatable this one
But what is more important is when will the bubble implode with huge inflationary pressures & how many cannot say its inevitability .

[Tomtom]

Quick question I'm pondering, why isn't the inflation in assets showing up in CPI number yet? I might reasonably expect that if it costs twice as much to buy an acre of land to grow a crop that would be passed forwards in the price of the crop which would push up CPI. Instead we are seeing a great divergence between CPI and asset inflation.

[clearasmud]

Well it's the cost of the food that counts.
Cpi does understate inflation by not including house price.
All efficiency gains appear to end in the land price so it would be better to use the wage index as the messure of inflation

[Mr Slothbear]

Quick question I'm pondering, why isn't the inflation in assets showing up in CPI number yet? I might reasonably expect that if it costs twice as much to buy an acre of land to grow a crop that would be passed forwards in the price of the crop which would push up CPI. Instead we are seeing a great divergence between CPI and asset inflation.


food production continues to get more efficient and on average requires less human labour.

also as interest rates drop land prices can double but lower interest rates can result in same or lower cost to finance.

inflation has been huge since 2008 but somehow goes under the radar due to completely wrongly weighted cpi and measuring tools recording the wrong things.

[dobby41]

Quick question I'm pondering, why isn't the inflation in assets showing up in CPI number yet? I might reasonably expect that if it costs twice as much to buy an acre of land to grow a crop that would be passed forwards in the price of the crop which would push up CPI. Instead we are seeing a great divergence between CPI and asset inflation.

As the value of the land goes up the crop price doesn't because the farmer is happy with the lower return since it is still better that comparable assets.
That's also why commercial property values have inflated but rents haven't - they are happy with a lower return as it is still better than an even lower return elsewhere.

[Ggcc]

As the value of the land goes up the crop price doesn't because the farmer is happy with the lower return since it is still better that comparable assets.
That's also why commercial property values have inflated but rents haven't - they are happy with a lower return as it is still better than an even lower return elsewhere.
Or they don't have an alternative. I a friend who has a few rental properties and only buys for 10% return. She is finding it impossible at todays rates and is not happy to buy another house even at 5% return?? Her theory is it is not worth the hassle. She is looking to invest elsewhere, although I doubt she will find anything.

[dobby41]

Or they don't have an alternative. I a friend who has a few rental properties and only buys for 10% return. She is finding it impossible at todays rates and is not happy to buy another house even at 5% return?? Her theory is it is not worth the hassle. She is looking to invest elsewhere, although I doubt she will find anything.

10% - very old school, and not really looking at the numbers.
You need the rent to cover funding and expenses - used to be 10% as a 'rule-of-thumb'.

[Hoop]

Or they don't have an alternative. I a friend who has a few rental properties and only buys for 10% return. She is finding it impossible at todays rates and is not happy to buy another house even at 5% return?? Her theory is it is not worth the hassle. She is looking to invest elsewhere, although I doubt she will find anything.

" She is looking to invest elsewhere, although I doubt she will find anything....." There is always something Ggcc... all depends on the state of the current/future market environment..An extreme example is during periods of zero or negative interest rates combined with below zero rates of return on assets/equities, doing nothing with your money, such as, money under the mattress could be considered a great investment.:)

[Ggcc]

" She is looking to invest elsewhere, although I doubt she will find anything....." There is always something Ggcc... all depends on the state of the current/future market environment..An extreme example is during periods of zero or negative interest rates combined with below zero rates of return on assets/equities, doing nothing with your money, such as, money under the mattress could be considered a great investment.:)
Sorry. What I am getting at is there is nothing out there offering 10% p.a plus capital gain with as little risk as houses over the longterm. I do agree there is always 10%+ ideas with high risk ideas. The way she is also thinking is also old school and in current economic times she has other options with lower returns. How can anyone be happy when the bank gives 0.25% p.a. Apparently she is just waiting and I agree with you in regards to current interest rates she will be going backwards if she does not buy anything.

[dobby41]

Sorry. What I am getting at is there is nothing out there offering 10% p.a plus capital gain with as little risk as houses over the longterm. I do agree there is always 10%+ ideas with high risk ideas. The way she is also thinking is also old school and in current economic times she has other options with lower returns. How can anyone be happy when the bank gives 0.25% p.a. Apparently she is just waiting and I agree she with you in regards to current interest rates she will be going backwards if she does not buy anything.

I'd still suggest that she isn't thinking clearly.
She has a rule that suited then (because of high interest rates etc) but probably isn't fit for purpose now - times have changed.
Maybe she didn't understand why she was buying 10%+ then - as a rule of thumb that's what you used to need to be profitable.

[Tomtom]

I've been looking into the Covid-19 growth rates in the EU, US and UK in what they are calling a third wave. It's exceptionally grim now they are in an exponential growth phase.

Take the UK for example, a country that has been in lockdown for weeks or longer in some areas so R should be quite stable. Based on the government figures of R (1.0 to 1.4), the current Covid-19 rate in the population (2%) and average transmission time (4 days) you realise that it's all likely to be over within the next 2 to 3 months.

They where all too slow with their vaccination programs to have a substantial impact. Israel might just squeeze in under the bar.

Surely markets will have to come back again when people realise that the vaccine narrative will only be a small part of this pandemic if you project current trends?

[Scrunch]

Sorry. What I am getting at is there is nothing out there offering 10% p.a plus capital gain with as little risk as houses over the longterm. I do agree there is always 10%+ ideas with high risk ideas. The way she is also thinking is also old school and in current economic times she has other options with lower returns. How can anyone be happy when the bank gives 0.25% p.a. Apparently she is just waiting and I agree with you in regards to current interest rates she will be going backwards if she does not buy anything.

It is intetesting when for a period of time two different investment rules give the same results and then the market changes and the two rules start giving different answers. A 10% return rule (i assume this is rental yield because rental properties have given above this as a return recently) might not have you buying but a rule of mortgage cost + x% for rates, insurance, repairs and profit may still have a limited number of opportunities.

Its times like this you learn/clarify exactly what your investment parameters are. Some rules can turn out just to be semi-flexible guidelines, but it sounds as if she is currently sticking to her rule, not modifying it.

[winner69]

" She is looking to invest elsewhere, although I doubt she will find anything....." There is always something Ggcc... all depends on the state of the current/future market environment..An extreme example is during periods of zero or negative interest rates combined with below zero rates of return on assets/equities, doing nothing with your money, such as, money under the mattress could be considered a great investment.:)

Hoop me old mate - the option value of cash is quite an interesting topic eh

Also came across a piece which reminded me that Galbraith used the phrase “the extreme brevity of the financial memory."

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-regulator-issues-bitcoin-warning-be-prepared-to-lose-all-your-money/GQVAF55TDADM3L3PEJQTCB5K5Y/

Warning issued.

[Hoop]

Hoop me old mate - the option value of cash is quite an interesting topic eh

Also came across a piece which reminded me that Galbraith used the phrase “the extreme brevity of the financial memory."
Ahh good old JK..I love his quotes..
“Let it be emphasized once more, and especially to anyone inclined to a personally rewarding skepticism in these matters: for practical purposes, the financial memory should be assumed to last, at a maximum, no more than 20 years. This is normally the time it takes for the recollection of one disaster to be erased and for some variant on previous dementia to come forward to capture the financial mind. It is also the time generally required for a new generation to enter the scene, impressed, as had been its predecessors, with its own innovative genius.”
― John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/1682394)
The brevity could be 9 months this time...eh


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nz-regulator-issues-bitcoin-warning-be-prepared-to-lose-all-your-money/GQVAF55TDADM3L3PEJQTCB5K5Y/

Warning issued.
“When a mood of excitement pervades a market or surrounds an investment prospect, when there is a claim of unique opportunity based on special foresight, all sensible people should circle the wagons; it is the time for caution.”
― John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/1682394)

[Timesurfer]

Take the UK for example, a country that has been in lockdown for weeks or longer in some areas so R should be quite stable. Based on the government figures of R (1.0 to 1.4), the current Covid-19 rate in the population (2%) and average transmission time (4 days) you realise that it's all likely to be over within the next 2 to 3 months.


You are making the assumption that once a strain has passed through the population that it is over.
Firstly, there appears to be no evidence that you only get the virus once.
Secondly, it appears to have the ability to mutate quite quickly so we could have new strains popping up for some time. Another reason, that like with the flu, vaccines have proven to be mildly effective at best.

However, I agree that the vaccine narrative is only a small part of the story. The agenda driven idiots in charge are the main cause of whatever effect is going to play out.

[Balance]

Ahh good old JK..I love his quotes..
“Let it be emphasized once more, and especially to anyone inclined to a personally rewarding skepticism in these matters: for practical purposes, the financial memory should be assumed to last, at a maximum, no more than 20 years. This is normally the time it takes for the recollection of one disaster to be erased and for some variant on previous dementia to come forward to capture the financial mind. It is also the time generally required for a new generation to enter the scene, impressed, as had been its predecessors, with its own innovative genius.”
― John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/1682394)
The brevity could be 9 months this time...eh


“When a mood of excitement pervades a market or surrounds an investment prospect, when there is a claim of unique opportunity based on special foresight, all sensible people should circle the wagons; it is the time for caution.”
― John Kenneth Galbraith, A Short History of Financial Euphoria (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/1682394)

You forgot to add :

This time is different!

[Hoop]

You forgot to add :

This time is different!
Sorry....:D

[winner69]

For those who think insider buying is good sign this a bit of bad news

@LizAnnSonders
Corporate buybacks picking up but company officers are showing less enthusiasm…in first 2 weeks of new year, total of 1,000 insiders sold stock while only 128 made purchases—sending sell-to-buy ratio to its highest in data going back to 1988 @WashServ @Bloomberg

[BlackPeter]

For those who think insider buying is good sign this a bit of bad news

@LizAnnSonders
Corporate buybacks picking up but company officers are showing less enthusiasm…in first 2 weeks of new year, total of 1,000 insiders sold stock while only 128 made purchases—sending sell-to-buy ratio to its highest in data going back to 1988 @WashServ @Bloomberg

Mmh ... never thought that insiders are better in reading the general market mood than anybody else. Might have more to do with insiders overspending their Christmas budgets (like many others) .... who knows?

[winner69]

Mmh ... never thought that insiders are better in reading the general market mood than anybody else. Might have more to do with insiders overspending their Christmas budgets (like many others) .... who knows?

...but aren't they thinking their own company prospects (rather than market's per see)

[BlackPeter]

...but aren't they thinking their own company prospects (rather than market's per see)

In that case it would be relevant which companies have been sold ... and whether the insiders acted consistently. Do we know that?

[winner69]

In that case it would be relevant which companies have been sold ... and whether the insiders acted consistently. Do we know that?

No idea what it means but it came with this chart

Many are obsessed with insider buying is great stuff but insider selling is bad ....so much so many seem to follow what insiders do. Just my observation so I thought what happening in US could be an useful indicator.

[mcdongle]

Could be selling because higher taxes are coming

[percy]

Just keep in mind the old saying,"There are many reasons why insiders sell,but only one reason they buy."

[Balance]

Just keep in mind the old saying,"There are many reasons why insiders sell,but only one reason they buy."

Very good reminder indeed, Percy!

Have observed too many occasions over the years of executives & management selling (for seemingly perfectly good reasons) to see the sp crashing down later. Hence, I always take heed when there’s insider selling.

[winner69]

Jeremy Grantham a old time guru. Recent piece of his “Waiting for the Last Dance” is quite good.

Probably right when he says -

The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak.”


But some (maybe many) would say he’s an old guy who just doesn’t get it that this time is different.

https://www.gmo.com/australia/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

[Baa_Baa]

Jeremy Grantham a old time guru. Recent piece of his “Waiting for the Last Dance” is quite good.

Probably right when he says -

The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak.”


But some (maybe many) would say he’s an old guy who just doesn’t get it that this time is different.

https://www.gmo.com/australia/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

Seems like a wise old chap, but did he write this before the central banks dumped billions and trillions of liquidity into the economies?

[winner69]

Seems like a wise old chap, but did he write this before the central banks dumped billions and trillions of liquidity into the economies?

Trillions will no doubt boost share markets more ...but those long term returns will go lower still and probably negative

Alright for me and you as we’ll be out when it reaches that stage eh

[ratkin]

Trillions will no doubt boost share markets more ...but those long term returns will go lower still and probably negative

Alright for me and you as we’ll be out when it reaches that stage eh

If you will be out, where will you be in?

[peat]

If you will be out, where will you be in?
does he mean interred.

(this is the Black Monday thread)

[Gerald]

12254

Interesting graph of margin debt going parabolic, history shows what happens next (although could obviously go far further).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Jeremy Grantham a old time guru. Recent piece of his “Waiting for the Last Dance” is quite good.

Probably right when he says -

The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak.”


But some (maybe many) would say he’s an old guy who just doesn’t get it that this time is different.

https://www.gmo.com/australia/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

He's been saying the market is headed for a crash for literally a decade.

[dobby41]

12254

Interesting graph of margin debt going parabolic, history shows what happens next (although could obviously go far further).

Another interpretation would be that it has quickly gotten back to the trend line.
In the other 2 instances highlighted they didn't have the same big dip below trend prior to the skyrocket.

[winner69]

Is this GameSpot GME in the US a good thing

Don’t know anything about them but heck what does that matter - as my signature says “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

[bull....]

Is this GameSpot GME in the US a good thing

Don’t know anything about them but heck what does that matter - as my signature says “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

its the new thing in the US by the robinhood , reddit crowds. target most shorted stocks with over sized buying of options causing the market makers to rush to buy stock to hedge there risks.

[dameofdiv]

Rich crowd for sure to be able to move the market. Agree - I throw the fundamentals away in such a phenomena. GME is not the first target of Reddit crowd. So far doing very very well.

p.s. I beat my chest cos I used to own GME at 3 bucks/share. Bye bye half a million USD.

[bull....]

Rich crowd for sure to be able to move the market. Agree - I throw the fundamentals away in such a phenomena. GME is not the first target of Reddit crowd. So far doing very very well.

p.s. I beat my chest cos I used to own GME at 3 bucks/share. Bye bye half a million USD.

ouch , these people are making millions in days and then going and buying lambo's to flaut there new wealth , young mellenials they are. even the pro's are getting in on the rushes now too. so just makes the moves even more extreme. tesla started the trend. just need to follow the chat to find the next targets

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Is this GameSpot GME in the US a good thing

Don’t know anything about them but heck what does that matter - as my signature says “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

Well worth a read about how they've put some massive hedge funds in very precarious positions (to be point of getting what could be called bailouts). It's incredible stuff really.

[Biscuit]

ouch , these people are making millions in days and then going and buying lambo's to flaut there new wealth , young mellenials they are. even the pro's are getting in on the rushes now too. so just makes the moves even more extreme. tesla started the trend. just need to follow the chat to find the next targets


Presumably the markets will adjust to that new strategy and eventually they will lose.

[stoploss]

Is this GameSpot GME in the US a good thing

Don’t know anything about them but heck what does that matter - as my signature says “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”
Closed at $ 148 today .In aftermarket trading been upto $ 224 roughly ..... now $ 200, maybe that was the hedge fund finally getting out .....

[bull....]

Closed at $ 148 today .In aftermarket trading been upto $ 224 roughly ..... now $ 200, maybe that was the hedge fund finally getting out .....

224 now , musk just gave it a boost with a tweet.

Musk is a favorite of many of those who exchange ideas on Reddit message boards

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-26/etsy-pops-premarket-as-tesla-s-musk-tweets-praise-after-purchase

[stoploss]

Wow , this is quite entertaining, $ 240.00 , but seriously some fund must have done all it's investors money .......

[winner69]

$20 billion traded on GME today

More than TSLA and APPL

[bull....]

markets consolidating at the moment. anyway forget bitcoin now ( we got the top right on that at the moment) the action is gme 347 lol doubled money overnight. other short canditates being targeted also thats the play at the moment.

only trade bitcoin , and the sort squeeze stocks etc with money you can afford to lose high risk stuff lol

[bull....]

my platform cracking down on gme leverage trades , probably a sign also the hedge funds exited now.

[ados_nz]

Bull I've seen you posting about trading before so I'd be interested in hearing your perspective on a crash after the end of the month (presumably as positions are forced to exit if not already). Potentially a short opportunity at that point?

[bull....]

Bull I've seen you posting about trading before so I'd be interested in hearing your perspective on a crash after the end of the month (presumably as positions are forced to exit if not already). Potentially a short opportunity at that point?

history tells you a crash will happen one day but few people know when.
as for after the end of the month im not sure why you think that ? care to expand
feb has some seasonal weakness in us markets and consolidation has started last week odd so break either way will give direction

[winner69]

They say small traders and chat rooms doing what they do with GME etc is wrong .....but it’s only what the cheerleaders at CNBC have been doing for years

[bull....]

They say small traders and chat rooms doing what they do with GME etc is wrong .....but it’s only what the cheerleaders at CNBC have been doing for years

no different to say funds in NZ printing glossy newsletters every month pumping there best buys and gloating over there timely sells

[Hoop]

Kaboom
the cuckoo nest (Wall St) has blown up SP500 -2.5% (panic sells indicator at highest level since covid sell off)..
However as I type there seems to be a levelling off (panic over already??)..I would not be surprised with this maniac market

one exception.. GME still going gangbusters ..now I've seen everything..this proves my opinion the market is insane.

Another example AMC

[BlackPeter]

Kaboom
the cuckoo nest (Wall St) has blown up SP500 -2.5% (panic sells indicator at highest level since covid sell off)..
However as I type there seems to be a levelling off (panic over already??)..I would not be surprised with this maniac market

one exception.. GME still going gangbusters ..now I've seen everything..this proves my opinion the market is insane.

Another example AMC

But we knew that before, didn't we? Bipolar disorder is a form of insanity :):

[calledone]

Kaboom
the cuckoo nest (Wall St) has blown up SP500 -2.5% (panic sells indicator at highest level since covid sell off)..
However as I type there seems to be a levelling off (panic over already??)..I would not be surprised with this maniac market

one exception.. GME still going gangbusters ..now I've seen everything..this proves my opinion the market is insane.

Another example AMC

Looks like the market has become another massive online game for tens of thousands sitting at home without a job around the world with stimulus checks and maybe some saving! This game will probably go on till there is an end to covid or will this be the new norm!

[Biscuit]

But we knew that before, didn't we? Bipolar disorder is a form of insanity :):

Market players have a strange misconception about what is reality and what is supposed to be the reflection:

“The real economy isn’t reflective of what’s happening in financial markets and there really is a disconnect there,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management.

[Hoop]

But we knew that before, didn't we? Bipolar disorder is a form of insanity https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/001_smile.gif:

Wall St 5 year weekly "panic" chart ($TRIN) ...Yes the chart looks very bipolar..eh

12256

[Hoop]

Wall St 5 year weekly "panic" chart ($TRIN)

12256

[bull....]

if you think wall st is a bubble , surely you must think NZ is a huge bubble

[BlackPeter]

if you think wall st is a bubble , surely you must think NZ is a huge bubble

Bubble is a strong word. Investors always need to assess earnings capacity of a company to decide which price they want to pay. Obviously - with the earnings being in the future they need to rely on forecasts (or make them up themselves).

In my view we have currently two effects making companies too dear (i.e. bring them closer to bubble territory):

1) Low interest rates resulting in high stock prices. If for some reason interest rates go up again, stock prices will fall - and yes, this might well end up like a popping bubble if it is badly managed (stampeding investors if its a surprise);

2) Some companies do have in my view likely significantly lower earnings capacity than their current share price would imply (i.e markets are too optimistic) and some of these companies are listed on the NZX. AIR would be one example, but there are clearly more. If reality shows through I would expect these bubbles to burst.

Just some observations ... it does not make sense to me that Tesla has e.g. a higher market cap than Daimler, Volkswagen and Toyota together. All three companies do have a lot of experience to build high quality cars ... Tesla has not ... and building electric cars is neither brain surgery nor rocket science ... so - here is a bubble, if you are looking for it.

Looking at the NZX ... I'd say that a number of directly or indirectly tourism related stocks are too dear - and some might well be in a bubble.

[Hoop]

Bubble is a strong word.......Looking at the NZX ... I'd say that a number of directly or indirectly tourism related stocks are too dear - and some might well be in a bubble.

Power companies?..recent market correcting suggests they got well over-valued

[bull....]

Bubble is a strong word. Investors always need to assess earnings capacity of a company to decide which price they want to pay. Obviously - with the earnings being in the future they need to rely on forecasts (or make them up themselves).

In my view we have currently two effects making companies too dear (i.e. bring them closer to bubble territory):

1) Low interest rates resulting in high stock prices. If for some reason interest rates go up again, stock prices will fall - and yes, this might well end up like a popping bubble if it is badly managed (stampeding investors if its a surprise);

2) Some companies do have in my view likely significantly lower earnings capacity than their current share price would imply (i.e markets are too optimistic) and some of these companies are listed on the NZX. AIR would be one example, but there are clearly more. If reality shows through I would expect these bubbles to burst.

Just some observations ... it does not make sense to me that Tesla has e.g. a higher market cap than Daimler, Volkswagen and Toyota together. All three companies do have a lot of experience to build high quality cars ... Tesla has not ... and building electric cars is neither brain surgery nor rocket science ... so - here is a bubble, if you are looking for it.

Looking at the NZX ... I'd say that a number of directly or indirectly tourism related stocks are too dear - and some might well be in a bubble.

tesla is more a power company than a car company. tesla will disrupt the power sector industry thats why its in such big demand people used to think it was just cars and would never make money and they failed to see how big a disruptor its going to be going forward. they relise now

[Ferg]

Cathie Woods talks about this; how Tesla is not a car company but a technology disrupter. I'm impressed with her fund returns but I'm still on the fence as to whether she is a) clever and lucky, b) clever and a good sales person, c) clever and prescient or d) all of the above.


tesla is more a power company than a car company. tesla will disrupt the power sector industry thats why its in such big demand people used to think it was just cars and would never make money and they failed to see how big a disruptor its going to be going forward. they relise now

[bull....]

Cathie Woods talks about this; how Tesla is not a car company but a technology disrupter. I'm impressed with her fund returns but I'm still on the fence as to whether she is a) clever and lucky, b) clever and a good sales person, c) clever and prescient or d) all of the above.

good returns , but like you say was it from just riding the bull?

[Biscuit]

Cathie Woods talks about this; how Tesla is not a car company but a technology disrupter. I'm impressed with her fund returns but I'm still on the fence as to whether she is a) clever and lucky, b) clever and a good sales person, c) clever and prescient or d) all of the above.

Probably all of the above. The ARK invest big ideas pdf is worth a glance.

[winner69]

WallStreetBets has been shut down (temporarily?) on Reddit.

Wall St ‘influence’ I guess

[BlackPeter]

Power companies?..recent market correcting suggests they got well over-valued

True, but I recon this has something to do with low interest rates. At the moment investors are happy if it takes the company more than 50 years to return their capital (which is comparable to less than 2 percent interest on a bond).

I am sure if interest rates would double, we won't need Houdini to see the prices of power companies shrink :):

[BlackPeter]

tesla is more a power company than a car company. tesla will disrupt the power sector industry thats why its in such big demand people used to think it was just cars and would never make money and they failed to see how big a disruptor its going to be going forward. they relise now

Only time will tell whether Tesla will ever be able to pay back all the money people invested into it. I won't hold my breath.

[bull....]

WallStreetBets has been shut down (temporarily?) on Reddit.

Wall St ‘influence’ I guess

because they been flooded with new members over 3 million now make this site kinda small eh

[causecelebre]

WallStreetBets has been shut down (temporarily?) on Reddit.

Wall St ‘influence’ I guess

The mods took it down as they were getting overloaded. Reddit didn't shut them down. Their Discord server got shutdown by Discord, no doubt due to pressure.

[bull....]

even goldman sachs is in on the gme trend they put out a note saying ivc in aus was a target for the social media crowd. the stock jumped big time today

[causecelebre]

There is going to be more of this. Social media users armed with a Robinhood app are going to be making more of these bets going forward. There is little sympathy for billionaire hedge funds crying foul and expecting corporate welfare after they have made naked shorts against companies who actually employ people. You can only halt trading for so long, e.g. AMC.

[causecelebre]

even goldman sachs is in on the gme trend they put out a note saying ivc in aus was a target for the social media crowd. the stock jumped big time today

AMC, BB, and NOK are also targets. The wallstreetbet OG's are trying to downplay those as they aren't as heavily shorted as GME

This originally started out as the meek inheriting the market from wall st as opposed top pump and dumps

[bull....]

exactly probably just part of the evolution of trading , zero fees platforms and stay at home guru analysts talking on social media disrupting the old way

[bull....]

AMC, BB, and NOK are also targets. The wallstreetbet OG's are trying to downplay those as they aren't as heavily shorted as GME

everyones producing lists now so as biscuit was mentioning the strategy may not last to much longer. good while it lasted will probably be the motto soon.

i was listening to Chamath Palihapitiya billionaire tech entrepreneur on cnbc this morning great interview he was saying some of the people on reddit were better analysts than he had seen on wall st

[greater fool]

Only time will tell whether Tesla will ever be able to pay back all the money people invested into it. I won't hold my breath.

There is no requirement for repayment. Investors just need to find the greater fool. ;)

[peat]

i was listening to Chamath Palihapitiya billionaire tech entrepreneur on cnbc this morning great interview he was saying some of the people on reddit were better analysts than he had seen on wall st

good analysts getting shut down.
hmmmm

where have I seen that.?

[winner69]

GME going crazy on ASX today apparently

[bull....]

deepfu..ing value user name on reddit made 47 million from an initial 50k investment on gme

A year ago, a user by the name of DeepF***ingValue (DFV) posted a screenshot of a position he had taken in GameStop.
He had spent about $US50,000 on stock in his initial investment

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-28/gamestop-reddit-users-on-wallstreetbets-explained/13097982

go bro

[BlackPeter]

There is no requirement for repayment. Investors just need to find the greater fool. ;)

Well, yes, but wouldn't in this case "gambler" be a more suitable label than "investor"?

[FTG]

Market downturns are ultimately the most effective way of distinguishing the skilled investors from the "gamblers", NOT Bull markets.

Raging Bull markets tend to inflate the egos of the gamblers, making them feel invincible, whilst insulting the skilled & disciplined.

We are now in the midst of the Everything Bull Market, and my word aren't we witnessing a lot of inflated egos!....and a few deflated ones too.

[STRAT]

bull.... wrote"deepfu..ing value user name on reddit made 47 million from an initial 50k investment on gme

A year ago, a user by the name of DeepF***ingValue (DFV) posted a screenshot of a position he had taken in GameStop.
He had spent about $US50,000 on stock in his initial investment

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...ained/13097982 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-28/gamestop-reddit-users-on-wallstreetbets-explained/13097982)

go bro"

Sticking it to the Hedge Funds. That beats protesting in the streets. How can that not put a smile on the faces of everybody here on this site. Love it.

[ratkin]

bull.... wrote

"deepfu..ing value user name on reddit made 47 million from an initial 50k investment on gme

A year ago, a user by the name of DeepF***ingValue (DFV) posted a screenshot of a position he had taken in GameStop.
He had spent about $US50,000 on stock in his initial investment

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...ained/13097982 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-28/gamestop-reddit-users-on-wallstreetbets-explained/13097982)

go bro"

Sticking it to the Hedge Funds. That beats protesting in the streets. How can that not put a smile on the faces of everybody here on this site. Love it.

He market has entered the final madness stage, this story pretty much confirms it.

[bull....]

He market has entered the final madness stage, this story pretty much confirms it.

what that some little unknown retail person made some big money. are you one of these big finance people who thinks only the big end of town should be allowed to make money.
anyway i see some people got upset about the hedge funds taking a bath and changed the rules again blocking retail people from buying gme and others but allowing the hedge funds to trade anyway they like in effect causing the prices to fall. robbinhood being sued because of this now and policticians joining in the fracas. makes for a great movies this be one day.

the whole trading platform restrictions have probably had the opposite effect intended now as they have sowed more discontent about the games rigged and probably mean more volitility will come to markets now as the retailers band up more to hunt the funds. a potentially meaning moment in time this gme moment

[causecelebre]

what that some little unknown retail person made some big money. are you one of these big finance people who thinks only the big end of town should be allowed to make money.
anyway i see some people got upset about the hedge funds taking a bath and changed the rules again blocking retail people from buying gme and others but allowing the hedge funds to trade anyway they like in effect causing the prices to fall. robbinhood being sued because of this now and policticians joining in the fracas. makes for a great movies this be one day.

the whole trading platform restrictions have probably had the opposite effect intended now as they have sowed more discontent about the games rigged and probably mean more volitility will come to markets now as the retailers band up more to hunt the funds. a potentially meaning moment in time this gme moment

Robinhood could take a backlash on this. They are beholden to whom ever is paying them for their order flow. If that flow dries up then so does their revenue. This order flow are black swan's to the algo's and whoever owns those are not happy. I think this is not the last we'll see of this behaviour. Trading has never been cheaper or more accessible.

[silu]

He market has entered the final madness stage, this story pretty much confirms it.

I'm trying to convince myself not to close up almost all my positions. When my main reactions to the share market at the moment are "Huh?" and "What?" and "Why?" we may have entered the crazy period.

[Entrep]

Robinhood could take a backlash on this. They are beholden to whom ever is paying them for their order flow. If that flow dries up then so does their revenue. This order flow are black swan's to the algo's and whoever owns those are not happy. I think this is not the last we'll see of this behaviour. Trading has never been cheaper or more accessible.

The same people they sell the order flow to (Citadel) are the ones propping up the hedge funds that shorted GME. You can't make this **** up.

[peat]

I'm trying to convince myself not to close up almost all my positions. When my main reactions to the share market at the moment are "Huh?" and "What?" and "Why?" we may have entered the crazy period.

problem is the crazy period just keeps on going and going.

So what does a rational investor do.

[BlackPeter]

problem is the crazy period just keeps on going and going.

So what does a rational investor do.

Dance close to the exits?

[bullfrog]

problem is the crazy period just keeps on going and going.

So what does a rational investor do.

Adapt, be agile, survive. It’s a huge market, avoid the hurricanes, take a long term view. This is just the start, its only a matter of time until China and Russia etc play investors as they played the US elections, manipulating social media, leading the next pump n dump. A new reality.

[silu]

problem is the crazy period just keeps on going and going.

So what does a rational investor do.

An Irish goodbye? A French exit?

[peat]

Adapt, be agile, survive. It’s a huge market, avoid the hurricanes, take a long term view. This is just the start, its only a matter of time until China and Russia etc play investors as they played the US elections, manipulating social media, leading the next pump n dump. A new reality.

thanks for your reply bullfrog.
I definitely need to work capital harder but I am ultimately quite risk averse so I am taking greater risk with less funds. My advice to the neighbour who was aghast at 0.8% offered for his TD was to take some of it out and work that moderately hard. He did have some Fortescue shares so he knew what I meant.
At least that way you are limiting the downside. Its kind of like what those capital guaranteed funds did I guess although look what happened to them - tbh I'm not sure but they probably blew up lol.

In terms of cant kiss all the girls I try to dance near the doorway with this high risk stuff.
But having said that I still accept some core holdings and potential downside with those at any time. And keep enough aside always to add to those lower.

Sharesies and Robin Hood as I've said before are a symbol of the shoeshine boy and the beginning of the end but the cycles get bigger so who knows where it will go to. At least to the moon! But maybe to Uranus . Enjoy the ride.

[bull....]

another risk entering the market now on top of the gme stuff.

eu set to impose export controls on vaccine distribution. in other words it be eu first everyone else last. expect others to follow soon hence why i dont see pandemic end this yr let alone nz getting much vaccine

[BlackPeter]

another risk entering the market now on top of the gme stuff.

eu set to impose export controls on vaccine distribution. in other words it be eu first everyone else last. expect others to follow soon hence why i dont see pandemic end this yr let alone nz getting much vaccine

Given that the EU contributed significant funds to the development of the vaccine is it fair enough if they expect as well that
Astro Zeneca is delivering the vaccines they promised to them instead of selling them to the highest bidder and leaving Europe with the shortfall.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/eu-covid-vaccine-row-astrazeneca-european-commission

[bull....]

Robinhood could take a backlash on this. They are beholden to whom ever is paying them for their order flow. If that flow dries up then so does their revenue. This order flow are black swan's to the algo's and whoever owns those are not happy. I think this is not the last we'll see of this behaviour. Trading has never been cheaper or more accessible.

robinhood have heaps of accounts bailed after there restrictions , so they had to raise capital. now they have backed down due to all the presurre from everywhere so people can trade gme etc again the games back on hence us futures tanking a bit as hedge fund pressure will be on again to liquidate other stuff

[Entrep]

hence us futures tanking a bit as hedge fund pressure will be on again to liquidate other stuff

Is the handful of funds caught up in this enough to nuke the market? I would have thought not. Plus there will be funds long too I suppose.

[Stranger_Danger]

robinhood have heaps of accounts bailed after there restrictions , so they had to raise capital. now they have backed down due to all the presurre from everywhere so people can trade gme etc again the games back on hence us futures tanking a bit as hedge fund pressure will be on again to liquidate other stuff

They haven't backed down at all, it is all as designed. In the last session, retail could only sell, not buy. The hedge funds took a lot of shares off them and the stock dropped a lot. It has now increased in the after market, which sets the scene for the overnight session. Retail will come in steaming, able to buy again. The hedge funds have in a lot of cases covered their shorts and now have shares to sell them. This will not be pretty.

[kiora]

another risk entering the market now on top of the gme stuff.

eu set to impose export controls on vaccine distribution. in other words it be eu first everyone else last. expect others to follow soon hence why i dont see pandemic end this yr let alone nz getting much vaccine

What happened to the idea of NZ developing manufacturing of its own vaccine?

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/science-and-technology/science-and-innovation/international-opportunities/covid-19-vaccine-strategy/

[bull....]

Is the handful of funds caught up in this enough to nuke the market? I would have thought not. Plus there will be funds long too I suppose.

must be a few caught up in this as we saw what happened the other day when they were forced to sell to cover losses. as for dragging the whole market down maybe not on this but who knows for sure thinking long term capital etc

[bull....]

They haven't backed down at all, it is all as designed. In the last session, retail could only sell, not buy. The hedge funds took a lot of shares off them and the stock dropped a lot. It has now increased in the after market, which sets the scene for the overnight session. Retail will come in steaming, able to buy again. The hedge funds have in a lot of cases covered their shorts and now have shares to sell them. This will not be pretty.

but a lot of new hedge funds went short yesterday might be burned bad if it goes up again

[Stranger_Danger]

but a lot of new hedge funds went short yesterday might be burned bad if it goes up again

Agreed. It is going to be a dogs breakfast with all the conflicting positions, agendas, margin calls and confusion, the intraday volatility is likely going to be insane. Which is extraordinary, since we're talking about a money losing chain of shops in empty US malls that sell computer games in boxes, that most people probably haven't been to in a decade. Pure tulip, really.

[Baa_Baa]

Agreed. It is going to be a dogs breakfast with all the conflicting positions, agendas, margin calls and confusion, the intraday volatility is likely going to be insane. Which is extraordinary, since we're talking about a money losing chain of shops in empty US malls that sell computer games in boxes, that most people probably haven't been to in a decade. Pure tulip, really.

Unsure how this will affect the markets generally however we may be witnessing a whole new digital driven trading disruption, of the market forces owned and controlled by the big (extremely big) money, most of which we don't see in our primitive trader prohibitive NZX market and platforms, but nonetheless intriguing and, well, somehow entertaining as well.

An uprising by the minnows against the status quo market controls, extreme money, bots, algos, rules etc. Don't even need to buy tickets to watch, it's happening, proven and imho will grow legs.

[nztx]

Dance close to the exits?


Not a bad answer there too -- and knowing when to press the bail button .. ;)

[kiora]

I am looking at long term strategy
Beware of weak hands.

[ratkin]

Not a bad answer there too -- and knowing when to press the bail button .. ;)

That is the hard bit. Normally about now I would be taking money off the table and putting it into cozy little term deposits, but there seems little point right now, money seems no safer than stocks, and there no upside.

[nztx]

That is the hard bit. Normally about now I would be taking money off the table and putting it into cozy little term deposits, but there seems little point right now, money seems no safer than stocks, and there no upside.

Yes .. that nicely sums up the dilemma - with what to do with the proceeds coming off the table locally

In US markets - for those who are happy to brave exchange fluctuation there are some not bad quarterly payers
in Gas Infrastructure LP's - 8% through to mostly north of 11% pa is not bad for those with a taste for these
sort of stocks. Personally they look better than repatriating funds back here to land on 0.5% - 1.5% pa
before the RWT impost gets deducted..

[kiora]

Yes .. that nicely sums up the dilemma - with what to do with the proceeds coming off the table locally

In US markets - for those who are happy to brave exchange fluctuation there are some not bad quarterly payers
in Gas Infrastructure LP's - 8% through to mostly north of 11% pa is not bad for those with a taste for these
sort of stocks. Personally they look better than repatriating funds back here to land on 0.5% - 1.5% pa
before the RWT impost gets deducted..

Downside in gas infrastructure?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-peril-pipeline-owners-090007907.html

[winner69]

Seems some of you guys need to look into the option value of cash

[DiffTheEnder]

Re:gamestop short activity.

What happens if gamestop halts trading to announce a capital raise? Will the short squeeze situation resolve itself as the shorter will buy the newly available float?

How quickly can gamestop organise a capital raise realistically?

[bull....]

​cnbc saying 20 billion is the hedge fund losses now and they are still resisting , robinhood near collapse maybe? as they pi..sed to many traders off no wonder the market down today.

The astronomical rally in GameStop (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=GME) has imposed huge losses of nearly $20 billion for short sellers this month, but they are not budging.

“I keep hearing that ‘most of the GME shorts have covered’ — totally untrue,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3 managing director of predictive analytics

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/gamestop-short-sellers-are-still-not-surrendering-despite-nearly-20-billion-in-losses-this-year.html

the new tweet king MUSK have to follow now as his tweets move stuff

[kiora]

Seems some of you guys need to look into the option value of cash

Reviewing the portfolio and taking the cream off certainly doesn't hurt but what wins longer term?
After 40 years of investing my portfolio has experienced a lot of volatility.

[Waltzing]

lambs to the ... we raised some 2 days ago..you could see it coming..

[Balance]

Chill.

Markets need corrections from time to tie to blow off the scum & froth (excesses) at the top so that the good stuff can float to the top.

Personally I prefer corrections to be sharp and short.

The big picture remains the same - low interest rates, plenty of free money being pumped into the system and hyper-inflation in shares, properties & other capital assets.

“We're in the era of super-money where there's so much money available that it floods into assets that are not growing the economy they're just growing the asset value.”

[Bjauck]

That is the hard bit. Normally about now I would be taking money off the table and putting it into cozy little term deposits, but there seems little point right now, money seems no safer than stocks, and there no upside.
I guess you have to weigh up relative risks. What to do during a pandemic? The 1919 pandemic was followed by the roaring twenties and deflation - apart from Germany, punished by Versailles, where there was hyperinflation. But who knows.

[Waltzing]

"chill"

1.3% not big enough to ripple anything yet

[Balance]

deleted deleted

[Balance]

"chill"

1.3% not big enough to ripple anything yet

our back office is comprehensive, including our own scripting model language and we think it "Be Best"

spins up runtime with no compiled marshalling..to connect the data in other languages.



1.3%?

Where did you get your figures from?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-29-2021-233520433.html

Sure about your comprehensive back office and data connection!

PS. I see you have quickly deleted the last 2 lines of your post. :D

[Ferg]

Re:gamestop short activity.

What happens if gamestop halts trading to announce a capital raise? Will the short squeeze situation resolve itself as the shorter will buy the newly available float?

How quickly can gamestop organise a capital raise realistically?

If I were running Game Stop, why would I do a capital raise to save the hedge funds that tried to push me under? IMO the hedge funds can reap what they have sown by taking naked short positions. Better for a couple of insiders to sell some shares and provide funding to Game Stop to reduce reliance on external debt funders. Even better if they hadn't cancelled the millions of shares they bought for between $5 and $6 and held them as Treasury Stock for resale.

Also, for those who are looking to short this stock, how are you going to close your position when the number of shorts in play exceeds the number of shares available? I don't believe for a second the large hedge funds have closed out their positions - it's not possible with the number of shares on hand versus the outstanding shorts.

[Hoop]

Dance close to the exits?

All depends on how big the exit door is..

From my previous experience I have discovered my exit door is far too small, no matter how close I am to it..
Everyone thinks they are smart enough to run for the exits and get out when the market falters at the top..but that is a dream enjoyed by most investors.

Disc: cashed out apart from a few rats and mice

[bull....]

just adding a bit more on the whole gamestock thing and how its a moment in time which is going to speed up the disruption of the markets. we already have the robinhood type brokerages spreading to disrupt the traditional model and appeal to the new generation of investors offering zero commissions and fancy apps to use on your phones. we have just witnessed the power of social media disrupting the hedge funds at there own game. funny enough hedge funds etc funds in general , brokerage firms all use social media as well to spread the word on there best buys etc but there all well a lot of them are upset there models just had a big disruption moment and off course they want politicians to stop this disruption.

anyway probably a lot of you dont follow the whole crypto space but it is revolutionizing the way finance is conducted over the web and is a combination of capital decentralisation and blockchain technology.

it take forever to explain the concept so if you want to read up on the future disruption stuff to how stock investing may evolve and how the little person will end up on a pure level playing field with the insto's read up on such things as

decentralised finance de-fi for the lingo
yield farming which allows little fellow to do what only the big insto.s can do in stocks , the little person can do in cryto now but will eventually go into stocks etc.
decentralised apps and peer to peer how they will be the new way cutting out all the intermediaries

behind all the gme goings on it really is just the evolution of the power shift happening to the individual and the tradition institutions getting another siren on there demise.

[winner69]

All depends on how big the exit door is..

From my previous experience I have discovered my exit door is far too small, no matter how close I am to it..
Everyone thinks they are smart enough to run for the exits and get out when the market falters at the top..but that is a dream enjoyed by most investors.

Disc: cashed out apart from a few rats and mice

So the option value of cash has some real value

[BlackPeter]

So the option value of cash has some real value

Well, I guess the answer is (as always): It depends ...

[allfromacell]

Seems ironic but in the current monetary environment central banks have led us I'd feel more anxious being cashed up. I would much rather have a more concentrated portfolio in the small pockets of value that still exist.

I don't think I'd sleep very well being fully cashed up which feels bizzare to say but it's true.

[Ggcc]

Seems ironic but in the current monetary environment central banks have led us I'd feel more anxious being cashed up. I would much rather have a more concentrated portfolio in the small pockets of value that still exist.

I don't think I'd sleep very well being fully cashed up which feels bizzare to say but it's true.
I completely agree. It has been proven the more the economy is pumped full of stimulus packages, the richer those get with quality assets. ie homes and most shares

[clearasmud]

Cash is trash but still fine to hold why you are sorting out investments as the holding cost of cash is low.
Gold might be better right now as it's in a lull.

[Bjauck]

Cash is trash but still fine to hold why you are sorting out investments as the holding cost of cash is low.
Gold might be better right now as it's in a lull.
When will the markets be spooked and encounter a change in direction?
I imagine there is a caveat. That you have a savings portfolio too (that can be accessed reasonably rapidly) to cover certain situations and unforeseen circumstances e.g. large outlays and covering living expenses for a reasonable period.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-know-following-ray-dalios-165438055.html

[winner69]

Buffett says cash is ‘priceless’

[ratkin]

Buffett says cash is ‘priceless’

Worthless will soon be closer to the mark

[allfromacell]

Buffett says cash is ‘priceless’

Buffett's underperformance over the past decade speaks volumes, he's too old fashioned and a bit past it now imo.

[BIRMANBOY]

Hoop, you just slipped that little phrase in, "cashed up", and it piqued my interest. Care to shed a little light on that? That's a big move for a long time investor, and given the alternatives, seems pretty serious. What have you surmised or what do you see to move you to that position.....or is it just a personal timing situation and time to smell the roses:)
All depends on how big the exit door is..

From my previous experience I have discovered my exit door is far too small, no matter how close I am to it..
Everyone thinks they are smart enough to run for the exits and get out when the market falters at the top..but that is a dream enjoyed by most investors.

Disc: cashed out apart from a few rats and mice

[kiora]

Pretty hard to move this amount of money in & out of equities so this is NZ Superfund strategy
"the fund’s long-run investment horizon gives us greater tolerance to hold on through market fluctuations and reap rewards over the long-term – without taking undue risk to the fund as a whole."
And staying with growth assets
"Other points of the review saw the portfolio’s strong weighting towards growth assets, retaining an 80% allocation to growth assets (equities) and 20% to fixed income assets (bonds)."

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518051/review-shows-super-fund-on-right-track.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+1+Fe bruary+2021

[bull....]

the reddit army moved on to silver stuff late last week now too , silver up big today after reporting in the press over the weekend on the asx silver mines up 44% today good if you got in on friday after following the reddit army

[bull....]

markets still consolidating which is a good thing , dont want a straight line up.

vaccine stuff heating up

Export controls on Covid vaccines from Europe could spark collapse in global supply, experts warn
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/eus-vaccine-export-controls-could-damage-global-vaccine-supply.html

countries probably vaccine there own populations first so cant see nz getting anything substantial really this year. contracts can be delayed or cancelled which is probably in the fine print.

[clown]

markets still consolidating which is a good thing , dont want a straight line up.

vaccine stuff heating up

Export controls on Covid vaccines from Europe could spark collapse in global supply, experts warn


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/eus-vaccine-export-controls-could-damage-global-vaccine-supply.html

countries probably vaccine there own populations first so cant see nz getting anything substantial really this year. contracts can be delayed or cancelled which is probably in the fine print.

I heard on the radio yesterday that NZ may manufacture on behalf of AstraZeneca. I think Australia already has the capacity to do it, not sure if NZ does.

[kiora]

There has been a deathly silence about NZ making its own Covid vaccine
24-4-20
https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/the-case-for-new-zealand-to-have-its-own-covid-19-vaccine-programme
15-11-20
"Biocell said they had already invested $900,000 to get its facility ready to produce vaccine material, and said it would cover its own staff costs. It gave assurances it would provide a facility “entirely dedicated to the development and manufacturing of Covid-19 vaccines to meet the needs of the NZ population”.

The grant would future-proof New Zealand’s capacity and contribute to its preparedness to deal with future pandemics, Biocell said.

It would be spent on a centrifuge, sterilisers, cell reactors, and allow Biocell to produce up to 24,000 vaccine doses per hour."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300155338/covid19-govt-fast-tracks-29-million-for-nz-biotech-firm-to-build-vaccine-lab

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/435412/work-advancing-for-nz-manufacture-of-vaccines-doctor

"VAANZ vaccine candidates
The VAANZ programme is undertaking research and development of several of its own second generation COVID-19 vaccine candidates, with initial data showing promising results.

These include a recombinant spike protein vaccine being developed out of Dr Davide Comoletti’s lab at Victoria University of Wellington, an inactivated virus vaccine in progress in Professor Miguel Quiñones-Mateu’s lab at the University of Otago and a pan-coronavirus vaccine being explored by Avalia Immunotherapies with international collaborators. "
https://www.malaghan.org.nz/infectious-diseases/covid-19/
9-12-20
"As discussions around emergency use authorisation of both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccine candidates begin, Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF) warns that any eventual COVID-19 vaccine approval won’t be enough to solve the global pandemic unless corporations take urgent steps to increase cooperation with other producers and sell the vaccines at cost. This means sharing all the necessary intellectual property (IP), technologies, data and know-how, so that as many companies as possible can produce these lifesaving vaccines."
https://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/article/undoctored/pfizer-and-moderna-vaccines-can-only-be-scaled-if-more-suppliers-can-produce

[bull....]

do any of you really believe NZ would produce there own vaccine facility? NZ govt is re active to covid issues not pro - active

[bull....]

cme just raised margins on silver , on the back off the reddit surge ?

[kiora]

do any of you really believe NZ would produce there own vaccine facility? NZ govt is re active to covid issues not pro - active

Why not?
Bunnythorpe gave rise to Glaxo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bunnythorpe
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)-Backed Covid Vaccine Shows Strong ...www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › glaxo-backed-...
Dec 4, 2020 — A Covid-19 vaccine project supported by GlaxoSmithKline Plc is headed for advanced trials after showing a strong immune response in early ...

That said the RNA vaccines more difficult to make than typical vaccines

[bull....]

markets roaring back looks like the gme induced correction is over ? all the restrictions on not being able to buy the most shorted stock stuff has saved the day eh or was it the hedge funds lol

mentioned earlier on this thread around the us election time that pot stocks looked interesting , getting more interesting now as a small % of my portfolio. etf's are good way to go currently most are up 20 - 50% since the us election but still thinks there room to go.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and two other Democratic senators said that they will push to pass this year sweeping legislation that would end the federal prohibition on marijuana
“The War on Drugs has been a war on people — particularly people of color,” said a statement issued by Schumer

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/cannabis-reform-senators-say-they-will-push-pot-bill-in-2021.html

[Waltzing]

biggest unwind since 2009.

who says it wont happen again.

History repeats and this is just another repeat of LTCM and others.

Only thing holding this together is low interest and QE.

[bull....]

another new risk

Covid 19 coronavirus: UK variant mutates again and may be able to evade vaccines and immune system
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-uk-variant-mutates-again-and-may-be-able-to-evade-vaccines-and-immune-
system/JW32475LZ7UURGN7TE5DV2GT2Q/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-uk-variant-mutates-again-and-may-be-able-to-evade-vaccines-and-immune-system/JW32475LZ7UURGN7TE5DV2GT2Q/)

not back to normal so quick?

[Waltzing]

the Bio Chemist says its SOP

[kiora]

another new risk

Covid 19 coronavirus: UK variant mutates again and may be able to evade vaccines and immune system
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-uk-variant-mutates-again-and-may-be-able-to-evade-vaccines-and-immune-
system/JW32475LZ7UURGN7TE5DV2GT2Q/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-uk-variant-mutates-again-and-may-be-able-to-evade-vaccines-and-immune-system/JW32475LZ7UURGN7TE5DV2GT2Q/)

not back to normal so quick?

I have heard RNA vaccines that also induce cell mediated immunity as well as antibody immunity will still work
People/journalists keep referring back to the South African vaccine study vaccinating people with the gene for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein which is unlikely to work as well

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Chill.

Markets need corrections from time to tie to blow off the scum & froth (excesses) at the top so that the good stuff can float to the top.

Personally I prefer corrections to be sharp and short.

The big picture remains the same - low interest rates, plenty of free money being pumped into the system and hyper-inflation in shares, properties & other capital assets.

“We're in the era of super-money where there's so much money available that it floods into assets that are not growing the economy they're just growing the asset value.”

This narrative is right again as we're back within a whisker of all time highs on SPY. Dips just keep getting bought up as where else is money to go?? It won't go on forever but until then...

[bull....]

I have heard RNA vaccines that also induce cell mediated immunity as well as antibody immunity will still work
People/journalists keep referring back to the South African vaccine study vaccinating people with the gene for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein which is unlikely to work as well

moving situation for sure

[Balance]

Chill.

Markets need corrections from time to tie to blow off the scum & froth (excesses) at the top so that the good stuff can float to the top.

Personally I prefer corrections to be sharp and short.

The big picture remains the same - low interest rates, plenty of free money being pumped into the system and hyper-inflation in shares, properties & other capital assets.

“We're in the era of super-money where there's so much money available that it floods into assets that are not growing the economy they're just growing the asset value.”

Gave you all the answer a few days ago but some posters here still persist in their wild gyrations in sentiment depending on how the markets move day to day.

[Balance]

biggest unwind since 2009.

who says it wont happen again.

History repeats and this is just another repeat of LTCM and others.

Only thing holding this together is low interest and QE.

You sorted out your data feed yet?

[Scrunch]

Gave you all the answer a few days ago but some posters here still persist in their wild gyrations in sentiment depending on how the markets move day to day.

And its this middle of the market posible investor that sets the price (to some extent). The market bulls are already long. The extreme bears will be short. Other bears will have low or no equity weighting. The swing investors that might be buying one day and selling others help create share price movements. If they start staying on one side of the equation we either have rising prices or a sharp selloff.

They should be watched even if the probable story is unchanged.

[Balance]

And its this middle of the market posible investor that sets the price (to some extent). The market bulls are already long. The extreme bears will be short. Other bears will have low or no equity weighting. The swing investors that might be buying one day and selling others help create share price movements. If they start staying on one side of the equation we either have rising prices or a sharp selloff.

They should be watched even if the probable story is unchanged.

Excellent point, Scrunch - well assessed.

Good observation to be taken onboard. 👍

[BeeBop]

I listened to the scientist discuss this on UK TV...the Herald has made it worse than the scientist expressed (to my interpretation).

Direct from the BBC
"Scientists have already been checking what these new mutations might mean for existing coronavirus vaccines that were designed around earlier versions of the virus that started the pandemic.


Some research (https://www.krisp.org.za/publications.php?pubid=316) appears to show E484K may help the virus evade parts of the immune system called antibodies.


But early results from Moderna (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55797312) suggest its vaccine is still effective against variants with this mutation - although the body's immune response may not be as strong or prolonged.


Two new coronavirus vaccines that could be approved soon - one from Novavax (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55850352) and another from Janssen (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55857530) - also appear to offer good cover against variants, protecting against serious illness.


Even in the worst case scenario, vaccines can be redesigned and tweaked to be a better match in a matter or weeks or months, if necessary, say experts.


A silver lining may be that the variants are mutating in a similar way rather than diverging from each other.


Prof Ravi Gupta from the University of Cambridge said: "This gives us a sign that it has certain favoured routes - and we can work to block those off with a vaccine."

[Waltzing]

"sorted data feed"

which one ..

a 2 to 5 billion on at the moment blown is nothing compared to QE on the other.

both sides of the trades are leveraged even the trade against the shorts.

its a fight and lucky for us QE is both stopping LTCM but also fuel's it.

market accident close?

both sides can re leverage at a rate never seen before.

[Entrep]

"sorted data feed"

which one ..

The feed that your family office uses to manage its billions

[dobby41]

I listened to the scientist discuss this on UK TV...the Herald has made it worse than the scientist expressed (to my interpretation).
Fairly normal - sells more papers and clicks.

[bull....]

RBA comment stuff yesterday

Rising house prices a good thing … so far
Without hazarding a forecast on where house prices will go from here, the RBA governor also observed that the past year's run up to record levels should further encourage homeowners to open their wallets.
"Sustainable increases in asset prices support household balance sheets and encourage spending through positive wealth effects," he argued.
"Higher housing prices can also encourage additional residential construction."
That's assuming things don't get out of hand.
"Am I worried about asset prices rising too quickly? At the moment, not essentially so," Dr Lowe said in response to questions.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-03/rba-governor-philip-lowe-national-press-club/13116408

RBNZ running the same thinking but will the NZ govt crash the party?

[Hoop]

Hoop, you just slipped that little phrase in, "cashed up", and it piqued my interest. Care to shed a little light on that? That's a big move for a long time investor, and given the alternatives, seems pretty serious. What have you surmised or what do you see to move you to that position.....or is it just a personal timing situation and time to smell the roses:)

Basically..with 48 years of investing under my belt I have to sadly admit that I do not understand this current equity market..I take heed of 'good' advice from Buffett (I never thought I would ever recite him)..Don't invest in something you don't understand..
Although I have been mostly a TA investor these past 20 years, I'm still hot-wired to fundamentals...Another negative of being a TAer in this volatile market is the fact the NZX technological archaic system doesn't allow me to buy or sell fast enough when my buy/sell signals are triggered.The bots beat me now.

Is the Bull market near it's end-game?

I current have 34 "Ducks" and when they start to line up in a row the bull market cycle top is near.

To date my Ducks are all over the place suggesting the Bull Market Cycle is still got some distance to travel.However what is disturbing is the very good management (so far) by the Central Banks which upset my Ducks.. Central Banks are playing a game of wack a mole (In my case Mole = Duck)..Every time a specific "duck" (Mole) lines up, the Central bank reacts and manages (manipulates) to pull it out of the line..I'm old school and still believe that manipulation creates an artificial environment which restricts systemic communication channels, thereby causing bubbles to emerge in specific sectors within the economic systems and with it comes a real risk of bubbles unexpectedly bursting. We had bubbles for some time now and investors have got use to them floating invisibly around them reciting that a very low interest rate justifies the very high values. The best scenario are the bubbles degases over time (Central bank's "bubble management" ultimate goal).

Anyway....Below is a copy of my 34 Ducks (I wrote this and added to it over many years)...enjoy

Signs a Cyclic Bull Market Cycle is Ending.


1...Average life span 3.8 years..Bull Market's End is Overdue 9.25 years old as at 06/06/2018
2...Low Volatility: One might think that low volatility is good for the average investor, but it simply isn't so. "tends to precede powerful reversals that can wipe out investors, as was the case in 2000 and early 2008, Right now, the S&P volatility index, known as the VIX, is about 15, and has been in that low territory since mid-January. The normal range is between about 20 and 40.
3...Short Selling Plummets: ..When you have a market where investors are all in, there will no longer be short covering as there is little available money left.
4...Insider Selling Spiking: Recent insider trading tilting strongly toward selling is a very bearish signal.
5...Very Bullish Sentiment: unusually high sentiment indicators measuring investor sentiment typically signals a market top. Remember Sir John Templeton’s legendary quote: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Sentiment is a powerful indicator of where a bull market is in its lifespan, and sentiment improves with age.
Euphoria comes when expectations broadly are too positive and perceptions too rosy.
6...High P/E ratio
7...Know that when everyone finally concludes things will get better forever, the bull market has now transitioned from mid to late phase.
Media portrays it's readers feelings and when fundamentals deteriorate no one notices (except insiders) until much later when the company reports are released.
8...New Expressions emerge like "new era", “ paradigm shift", "permanently high plateau", "end of the business cycle" and “It's different this time”
9...Paradoxically, future P/E may be low, (due to overly optimistic projections for the next 12-month earnings) ...however trailing P/E and P/E calculated based on averaged earnings over past 3, 5 or 10 years are always high, usually above 20, toward the late phase of the bull market.
10...the overall stock market becomes irrationally exuberant.
11...The most important thing to do in a bull market is to hold. Don't sell your positions too quickly for a small profit; wait until everyone is finally on board and the economic outlook appears rosy.
12...Watch for the lagging (defensive) stocks that keep rising against the leading (cyclical) stocks that are starting to fall....Defensive stocks are typically those in the Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities sectors;... cyclical stocks are typically those in the Materials, Industrials, and Financial sectors.
13...Increased number of IPO's ... Entrepreneurs time their IPOs at the peak of the business cycle, to take advantage of investor euphoria to raise as much cash for themselves as possible.
14...the IPO quality gets poorer and poorer toward the end of the bull market.
15...Increased Mergers and acquisitions at this point in the corporate-profit and bull-market cycle when “financial engineering” takes over as a driving theme. Here, corporate productivity is already high, the rapid demand surge after a recession is past and profit margins near peak levels, while financing is cheap and cash piled high at companies and private-equity funds. Transactional ferment raises the corporate metabolism, enforcing discipline on the active use of capital, leading to purchases, sales, aggressive share buybacks, spin offs and initial offerings (IPO's) – tipping, eventually, toward recklessness.
16...Beware of rational optimism.,,,, The switch from rational pessimism during the climbing the wall of worry to that of reasoning why the Bull market will continue.
17...Denial of bad news....use of the “rational” excuse to buy up “cheap” shares
18...A long thaw to reality.
19...A change from Bull to Bear cycle is hard to recognise A market top (or market high) is usually not a dramatic event. The market has simply reached the highest point that it will, for some time (usually a few years). It is retroactively defined as market participants are not aware of it as it happens. A decline then follows, usually gradually at first and later with more rapidity.
20...A classic indicator that the Fed has tightened too much is an inverted yield curve (i.e., short-term rates higher than long-term rates)...This indicator is the most reliable in modern history and suggests that a recession may be imminent when the yield curve inverts, Often the curve reverts back before the recession starts reinforcing investors bullish beliefs.
21...Unemployment Rate V Natural rate of Unemployment....Average 2 yrs after the below crossover.
22...The emergence of the nadir in unemployment rate... the statistical US unemployment nadir range is 3.3% through to 5.8% (Krugman)..The Unemployment Rate Nadir (bottom) occurs on average 8 months before a recession...see here for a complex method https://imarketsignals.com/unemployment-rate-and-recessions/
23...Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. a weighted average of 10 indicators.This index has, prior to seven of the past eight recessions, dipped below zero “with few false alarms.”
24...Stock breadth ,..An indicator when the market is still advancing, but the number of stocks making new highs is less than the number making new lows. Usually happens when the tendency for investors to rotate from smaller, riskier issues into blue-chip, This deterioration in breadth shows up in things like the number of stocks making 52-week highs or being above the 200day moving average (stock code NYA200r).
25....DAGS, short for Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread fall to below 200 (leading indicator) and to 0 and below (more likely a lagging indicator)..(Robert Dieli)
26...The break in uptrend (curving over) of the BCI ( Business Cycle Index)
27...Buffett Indicator..shows market over/undervalue, compares market growth against GDP growth...
28.....Very long leading indicator is the NAHB Housing Market Index. A top confirmation and subsequent reversal signals an economic downturn severe enough to be a recession within the next 2 to 3 years.. The last 33 years there has been 4 tops and the reversal that followed, 3 out of the 4 predicted correctly that recession occurred..There was one failure (1994 top).....70 on the index seems to be the topping out area.
29...Real Median Household Income (related to % employment) increases and peaks near a recession..A change downwards from a primary uptrend is an indicator warning..(not a leading indicator but a confirmation indicator).
30...Recession begins during a central bank monetary tightening cycle peak not during a monetary easing cycle nadir https://seekingalpha.com/article/4088599-preparing-end-game.
31...Personal savings trend downwards during economic good times and bottom out just before a recession...Savings trend up during a recession and the following recovery period...
32... Corporate Debt to GDP. Level rises until beginning of recession..43%+ seems to be the warning of the end game (chart).
33...Very late cycle sign..Banks' willingness to lend to consumers moves lower despite Central banks cutting rates.
34...Large discrepancy (high negative %) result.. Corporate (CEO) confidence minus Consumer confidence. -60% or more bottoming out (nadir) is warning signal.










Ref
the daily ticker..http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bull-market-aging-regain-blush-youth-113902025.html
Money morning..http://moneymorning.com/2013/03/04/five-signs-the-bull-market-is-getting-close-to- (http://moneymorning.com/2013/03/04/five-signs-the-bull-market-is-getting-close-to-topping-out/)topping-out/ (http://moneymorning.com/2013/03/04/five-signs-the-bull-market-is-getting-close-to-topping-out/)
Seeking Alpha...http://seekingalpha.com/article/1285341-bull-market-near-end-leadership-questionable
Wikihow...http://www.wikihow.com/Invest-in-a-Bull-Market
Equities.com http://editorial.equities.com/financial-expert/rational-optimism-and-the-bull-market-cycle/
Before its News http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2013/03/five-signs-the-bull-market-is-getting-close-to-topping-out-2496428.html
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend
RBA http://rba-llc.com/pdf/80sBullRedux.pdf
http://lenkiefer.com/2017/12/11/plotting-u-s-macroeconomic-trends-with-fred-and-r/
https://imarketsignals.com/2016/the-dynamic-linearly-detrended-aggregate-spread-a-long-leading-recession-indicator/
https://imarketsignals.com/bci/

[bull....]

markets roaring back looks like the gme induced correction is over ? all the restrictions on not being able to buy the most shorted stock stuff has saved the day eh or was it the hedge funds lol

mentioned earlier on this thread around the us election time that pot stocks looked interesting , getting more interesting now as a small % of my portfolio. etf's are good way to go currently most are up 20 - 50% since the us election but still thinks there room to go.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and two other Democratic senators said that they will push to pass this year sweeping legislation that would end the federal prohibition on marijuana
“The War on Drugs has been a war on people — particularly people of color,” said a statement issued by Schumer

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/cannabis-reform-senators-say-they-will-push-pot-bill-in-2021.html


cannabis all over the cnbc news today on the huge merger deal and oh how high the stocks are going

[BlackPeter]

Basically..with 48 years of investing under my belt I have to sadly admit that I do not understand this current equity market..I take heed of 'good' advice from Buffett (I never thought I would ever recite him)..Don't invest in something you don't understand..
Although I have been mostly a TA investor these past 20 years, I'm still hot-wired to fundamentals...Another negative of being a TAer in this volatile market is the fact the NZX technological archaic system doesn't allow me to buy or sell fast enough when my buy/sell signals are triggered.The bots beat me now.

...



Cheers hoop, great post!

Your statement "Don't invest in something you don't understand.." related to the current bull is worthwhile to think about.

Obviously - nobody can say whether it is weeks, months or years until the bull runs out of puff. Chaotic systems of the second order are easy to explain with the benefit of hindsight, but impossible to predict without the latter;

Personally I think that the combined effort of the newest US administration (what is it - 1.9 billion dollars?) and many other governments and Reserve banks around the world will keep this fire still for some time going ... i.e. going out of the market right now might cost a quite significant opportunity cost.

On the other hand - no doubt the risks are increasing by the day ... and the fuel will run out some day (question is just, when).
So - sure - if one has enough money, than it might be safer to store it under the mattress (well, not literally, please) :):

Discl: Still long ... though trying to avoid the hypes and staying in the companies producing useful stuff :) and making money:

[Entrep]

Great post Hoop, thanks


On the other hand - no doubt the risks are increasing by the day ... and the fuel will run out some day (question is just, when).

The "issue" is the fuel is being created out of thin air and will continue to be.

[BlackPeter]

Great post Hoop, thanks



The "issue" is the fuel is being created out of thin air and will continue to be.

True. Question is just - do we assume that the markets never realize that this "fuel" is not real but only made out of "thin air"? That's not how it used to work in the past ...

Two pictures coming into my head.

One is the picture of the Perpetuum mobile, which (as we all know) does not work ... and the other is the picture of the emperor without clothes ... his tailor worked as well relying on the dumbness of the masses ... but he oversaw that some day there might be a fresh pair of eyes around stating the blatant obvious :):

Anyway - in the past resulted the printing of money without backing in any economy I am aware of always in inflation and (if bad enough) in an economic crash.

But - I here you saying ... this time it will be different (?!?)

[Entrep]

2...Low Volatility: One might think that low volatility is good for the average investor, but it simply isn't so. "tends to precede powerful reversals that can wipe out investors, as was the case in 2000 and early 2008, Right now, the S&P volatility index, known as the VIX, is about 15, and has been in that low territory since mid-January. The normal range is between about 20 and 40.

Speaking of VIX

Just has the largest 3 day drop on record, ever.

12286

[bull....]

Basically..with 48 years of investing under my belt I have to sadly admit that I do not understand this current equity market..I take heed of 'good' advice from Buffett (I never thought I would ever recite him)..Don't invest in something you don't understand..
Although I have been mostly a TA investor these past 20 years, I'm still hot-wired to fundamentals...Another negative of being a TAer in this volatile market is the fact the NZX technological archaic system doesn't allow me to buy or sell fast enough when my buy/sell signals are triggered.The bots beat me now.

Is the Bull market near it's end-game?

I current have 34 "Ducks" and when they start to line up in a row the bull market cycle top is near.

To date my Ducks are all over the place suggesting the Bull Market Cycle is still got some distance to travel.However what is disturbing is the very good management (so far) by the Central Banks which upset my Ducks.. Central Banks are playing a game of wack a mole (In my case Mole = Duck)..Every time a specific "duck" (Mole) lines up, the Central bank reacts and manages (manipulates) to pull it out of the line..I'm old school and still believe that manipulation creates an artificial environment which restricts systemic communication channels, thereby causing bubbles to emerge in specific sectors within the economic systems and with it comes a real risk of bubbles unexpectedly bursting. We had bubbles for some time now and investors have got use to them floating invisibly around them reciting that a very low interest rate justifies the very high values. The best scenario are the bubbles degases over time (Central bank's "bubble management" ultimate goal).

Anyway....Below is a copy of my 34 Ducks (I wrote this and added to it over many years)...enjoy

Signs a Cyclic Bull Market Cycle is Ending.


1...Average life span 3.8 years..Bull Market's End is Overdue 9.25 years old as at 06/06/2018
2...Low Volatility: One might think that low volatility is good for the average investor, but it simply isn't so. "tends to precede powerful reversals that can wipe out investors, as was the case in 2000 and early 2008, Right now, the S&P volatility index, known as the VIX, is about 15, and has been in that low territory since mid-January. The normal range is between about 20 and 40.
3...Short Selling Plummets: ..When you have a market where investors are all in, there will no longer be short covering as there is little available money left.
4...Insider Selling Spiking: Recent insider trading tilting strongly toward selling is a very bearish signal.
5...Very Bullish Sentiment: unusually high sentiment indicators measuring investor sentiment typically signals a market top. Remember Sir John Templeton’s legendary quote: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Sentiment is a powerful indicator of where a bull market is in its lifespan, and sentiment improves with age.
Euphoria comes when expectations broadly are too positive and perceptions too rosy.
6...High P/E ratio
7...Know that when everyone finally concludes things will get better forever, the bull market has now transitioned from mid to late phase.
Media portrays it's readers feelings and when fundamentals deteriorate no one notices (except insiders) until much later when the company reports are released.
8...New Expressions emerge like "new era", “ paradigm shift", "permanently high plateau", "end of the business cycle" and “It's different this time”
9...Paradoxically, future P/E may be low, (due to overly optimistic projections for the next 12-month earnings) ...however trailing P/E and P/E calculated based on averaged earnings over past 3, 5 or 10 years are always high, usually above 20, toward the late phase of the bull market.
10...the overall stock market becomes irrationally exuberant.
11...The most important thing to do in a bull market is to hold. Don't sell your positions too quickly for a small profit; wait until everyone is finally on board and the economic outlook appears rosy.
12...Watch for the lagging (defensive) stocks that keep rising against the leading (cyclical) stocks that are starting to fall....Defensive stocks are typically those in the Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities sectors;... cyclical stocks are typically those in the Materials, Industrials, and Financial sectors.
13...Increased number of IPO's ... Entrepreneurs time their IPOs at the peak of the business cycle, to take advantage of investor euphoria to raise as much cash for themselves as possible.
14...the IPO quality gets poorer and poorer toward the end of the bull market.
15...Increased Mergers and acquisitions at this point in the corporate-profit and bull-market cycle when “financial engineering” takes over as a driving theme. Here, corporate productivity is already high, the rapid demand surge after a recession is past and profit margins near peak levels, while financing is cheap and cash piled high at companies and private-equity funds. Transactional ferment raises the corporate metabolism, enforcing discipline on the active use of capital, leading to purchases, sales, aggressive share buybacks, spin offs and initial offerings (IPO's) – tipping, eventually, toward recklessness.
16...Beware of rational optimism.,,,, The switch from rational pessimism during the climbing the wall of worry to that of reasoning why the Bull market will continue.
17...Denial of bad news....use of the “rational” excuse to buy up “cheap” shares
18...A long thaw to reality.
19...A change from Bull to Bear cycle is hard to recognise A market top (or market high) is usually not a dramatic event. The market has simply reached the highest point that it will, for some time (usually a few years). It is retroactively defined as market participants are not aware of it as it happens. A decline then follows, usually gradually at first and later with more rapidity.
20...A classic indicator that the Fed has tightened too much is an inverted yield curve (i.e., short-term rates higher than long-term rates)...This indicator is the most reliable in modern history and suggests that a recession may be imminent when the yield curve inverts, Often the curve reverts back before the recession starts reinforcing investors bullish beliefs.
21...Unemployment Rate V Natural rate of Unemployment....Average 2 yrs after the below crossover.
22...The emergence of the nadir in unemployment rate... the statistical US unemployment nadir range is 3.3% through to 5.8% (Krugman)..The Unemployment Rate Nadir (bottom) occurs on average 8 months before a recession...see here for a complex method https://imarketsignals.com/unemployment-rate-and-recessions/
23...Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. a weighted average of 10 indicators.This index has, prior to seven of the past eight recessions, dipped below zero “with few false alarms.”
24...Stock breadth ,..An indicator when the market is still advancing, but the number of stocks making new highs is less than the number making new lows. Usually happens when the tendency for investors to rotate from smaller, riskier issues into blue-chip, This deterioration in breadth shows up in things like the number of stocks making 52-week highs or being above the 200day moving average (stock code NYA200r).
25....DAGS, short for Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread fall to below 200 (leading indicator) and to 0 and below (more likely a lagging indicator)..(Robert Dieli)
26...The break in uptrend (curving over) of the BCI ( Business Cycle Index)
27...Buffett Indicator..shows market over/undervalue, compares market growth against GDP growth...
28.....Very long leading indicator is the NAHB Housing Market Index. A top confirmation and subsequent reversal signals an economic downturn severe enough to be a recession within the next 2 to 3 years.. The last 33 years there has been 4 tops and the reversal that followed, 3 out of the 4 predicted correctly that recession occurred..There was one failure (1994 top).....70 on the index seems to be the topping out area.
29...Real Median Household Income (related to % employment) increases and peaks near a recession..A change downwards from a primary uptrend is an indicator warning..(not a leading indicator but a confirmation indicator).
30...Recession begins during a central bank monetary tightening cycle peak not during a monetary easing cycle nadir https://seekingalpha.com/article/4088599-preparing-end-game.
31...Personal savings trend downwards during economic good times and bottom out just before a recession...Savings trend up during a recession and the following recovery period...
32... Corporate Debt to GDP. Level rises until beginning of recession..43%+ seems to be the warning of the end game (chart).
33...Very late cycle sign..Banks' willingness to lend to consumers moves lower despite Central banks cutting rates.
34...Large discrepancy (high negative %) result.. Corporate (CEO) confidence minus Consumer confidence. -60% or more bottoming out (nadir) is warning signal.










Ref
the daily ticker..http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bull-market-aging-regain-blush-youth-113902025.html
Money morning..http://moneymorning.com/2013/03/04/five-signs-the-bull-market-is-getting-close-to- (http://moneymorning.com/2013/03/04/five-signs-the-bull-market-is-getting-close-to-topping-out/)topping-out/ (http://moneymorning.com/2013/03/04/five-signs-the-bull-market-is-getting-close-to-topping-out/)
Seeking Alpha...http://seekingalpha.com/article/1285341-bull-market-near-end-leadership-questionable
Wikihow...http://www.wikihow.com/Invest-in-a-Bull-Market
Equities.com http://editorial.equities.com/financial-expert/rational-optimism-and-the-bull-market-cycle/
Before its News http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2013/03/five-signs-the-bull-market-is-getting-close-to-topping-out-2496428.html
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend
RBA http://rba-llc.com/pdf/80sBullRedux.pdf
http://lenkiefer.com/2017/12/11/plotting-u-s-macroeconomic-trends-with-fred-and-r/
https://imarketsignals.com/2016/the-dynamic-linearly-detrended-aggregate-spread-a-long-leading-recession-indicator/
https://imarketsignals.com/bci/

one thing is for sure hoop over 400 odd years of history tells us there will be a crash again one day and most people will lose all there paper gains. only difference this time it will be played out over days rather than one day due to circuit breaker rules.

[Entrep]

This thread is interesting continuing along the lines of what Hoop was saying

https://twitter.com/JohnStCapital/status/1357422650805673986

[bull....]

update on the year so far

YTD the best performing sectors to have had your money are cannabis and crypto both area's we mentioned late last year as opportunities and there have been some spectacular gains for sure and so quick lol .

also bio - tech small caps are getting attention now

As far as index go the russell index in the US is by far the best YTD as well as china and the nasdaq , unfortunately NZ has started the year pretty much as one of the worst markets to be in down 3% odd YTD against a 16% return on the russell small caps even aus is up 3%.
My guess is NZ is out of favour due to rising bond yields , NZ market did well when everyone wanted yield utility type companies but now its all about reflation trade and retail spending

anyway long way to go in the year things change all the time so DYOR

[bull....]

cannabis stocks looking good after hours. did you know many institutions cant even buy yet because of the federal laws still so when they change we might get a rush of insto money to push the stocks much higherrrr.

what that saying .... greed is good or is it weed is good

[ratkin]

5...Very Bullish Sentiment: unusually high sentiment indicators measuring investor sentiment typically signals a market top. Remember Sir John Templeton’s legendary quote: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Sentiment is a powerful indicator of where a bull market is in its lifespan, and sentiment improves with age.
Euphoria comes when expectations broadly are too positive and perceptions too rosy.


This one is tricky, is there really bullish sentiment? Or is it a case of everyone is just confused about what to do with their money. Money going to the markets by default due to lack of other options. Most of the long term members here do not seem that bullish, if anything we are leaning the other way. so growing on skepticism perhaps?

[winner69]

Harbour Asset Long Short Fund apparently doing well this month ....somebody invested in them reckons they’ve gone more short than previous.

[peat]

This one is tricky, is there really bullish sentiment? Or is it a case of everyone is just confused about what to do with their money. Money going to the markets by default due to lack of other options. Most of the long term members here do not seem that bullish, if anything we are leaning the other way. so growing on skepticism perhaps?
I think there is a huge amount of complacency. The Greenspan Put seems to have morphed into an unstoppable monster with every challenge from the economy met with tsunamis of keynesian stimulus And this of course is politically expedient.

[bull....]

weeds up good again today against a overall small red day for the market at the moment. anyway we gotta ask ourselves the question if not now but soon.

I can buy some serious munchies with the gains ive made this year on weed the best stock gave people a 1800% gain since the election and most ranging from 50% to 600% in the last mth as people piled in after senator schumer gave his blessing so do i want to see these gains go up in smoke ? or will i try my luck and ride the wave for more highs. sh..t to ponder for sure maybe why a chew my munchies. short term , long term? who am I

[bull....]

CNBC just reporting the reddit crowd are going into pot now

Cannabis stocks soar as Reddit crowd that spiked GameStop jumps in, Tilray surges 25%
Shares of Tilray, Canopy Growth, Aurora Cannabis and Aphria are soaring on Wednesday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/cannabis-stocks-soar-as-reddit-crowd-that-spiked-gamestop-jumps-in-tilray-surges-25percent.html

as I was saying last post some really big gains have already been made , so something to think about

[BlackPeter]

weeds up good again today against a overall small red day for the market at the moment. anyway we gotta ask ourselves the question if not now but soon.

I can buy some serious munchies with the gains ive made this year on weed the best stock gave people a 1800% gain since the election and most ranging from 50% to 600% in the last mth as people piled in after senator schumer gave his blessing so do i want to see these gains go up in smoke ? or will i try my luck and ride the wave for more highs. sh..t to ponder for sure maybe why a chew my munchies. short term , long term? who am I

Just trying to figure out why you publish your weed ramps in the Black Monday thread? Do you think that the use of weed is worse on Mondays? Or do you think that the weed bubble might pop on a Monday close to us?

While weed in the past was often a good vehicle to transfer money from the gullible to the crooked (i.e. there might be some justification for using a bad news thread) - a separate thread might be appropriate ...

[Getty]

Are you trying to weed him out?

[BlackPeter]

Are you trying to weed him out?

Just trying to confine the weed to where it belongs :):

[bull....]

Just trying to figure out why you publish your weed ramps in the Black Monday thread? Do you think that the use of weed is worse on Mondays? Or do you think that the weed bubble might pop on a Monday close to us?

While weed in the past was often a good vehicle to transfer money from the gullible to the crooked (i.e. there might be some justification for using a bad news thread) - a separate thread might be appropriate ...

if you dont follow the trends or flows of money and the news to affect that flow how will you have any idea whats going on in the market. if all this money just suddenly decided to park it in cash account what do you think would happen. its all relevant to black monday not just people guessing when a crash might happen.

for example did you listen to fed powell a short time ago at the new york club he might have said something to crash the market luckily he didnt

heres some news out of aus yesterday very relevant to nz RBNZ and your nz shares

RBA’s Harper Says Australia ‘Way Off’ an Asset-Price Bubble
Reserve Bank board member Ian Harper said Australia’s unemployment is too high and the economy has too much lost activity for monetary stimulus to be fueling excessive stock and property valuations

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/rba-s-harper-says-australia-way-off-an-asset-price-bubble?srnd=premium-asia

in other words he see's no bubbles so you can take comfort they are not going to crash the market with tightning policy therfore rbnz will have to take aus central bank stance into account for setting there policies as they dont want to crash your party if no one else is.

a lot of stock market news no matter how irrelevant you may consider it is relevant to black monday

[peat]

I reckon this thread is the general chat thread now so I'm all good with tangents/diversions even the odd session ;+) in moderation of course. Everything in moderation eh including moderation.

Tuesday is the real comedown day BP. Didnt you know that? Any real partier is still pretty happy on Monday lol.

[bull....]

NZ market down again , plenty of selling going on maybe except retailers and a few others. US market rocking though

[bull....]

further to the NZ market being the worst performing stock market this year. We know its a utility type market generally and rising bond rates make it less attractive but also a added risk is the NZ govt now and how they are going to deal with the property market.

bad decisions have had bad effects thru out history by politicians

[tuaman]

It seems "Inflation=interest hike" is the main theme these days. Better to not to have any leverages at all?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-investors-have-been-asking-questions-about-potential-hyperinflation

[bull....]

cryto space really getting traction now as the future

BNY Mellon to offer bitcoin services, a validation of crypto from a key bank in the financial system


the nation’s oldest bank, said Thursday that it will begin financing bitcoin and other digital currencies.
The custody bank will eventually allow digital currencies to pass through the same financial network it currently uses for more traditional holdings like U.S. Treasury bonds and equities after months of analysis of its prototype digital asset framework.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bny-mellon-to-offer-bitcoin-services-a-validation-of-crypto-from-a-key-bank-in-the-financial-system.html

better start putting a few paper notes aside to frame as what used to be lol

[nztx]

Monday blues abound on NZX -- lots of Red coming out in morning session out of latest AKL 3 Day level-3 by looks ? ;)

Back to the bad old (well b***dly good for the Contrarion crew) times again folks ? ;)

[winner69]

Monday blues abound on NZX -- lots of Red coming out in morning session out of latest AKL 3 Day level-3 by looks ? ;)

Back to the bad old (well b***dly good for the Contrarion crew) times again folks ? ;)

Falls outnumber rises by 2 to 1

But overall not too bad

[sb9]

Falls outnumber rises by 2 to 1

But overall not too bad

Looks like RAK is one of the ones to rise...who would've thought..

[ratkin]

Falls outnumber rises by 2 to 1

But overall not too bad

Wait till level Four on Wednesday, might see some discounts then.

[nztx]

Any sign of any Wages Subsidy for affected Auckland businesses for the 3 days
from the Bums on the Hill yet - or do they think it will be Wages for Free ? ;)

[Hoop]

The technical rot on the NZ50 index commenced last week before the covid scare..
Correction in progress. Technically/generally speaking, during corrections all medium/long term* buying should cease until buy signals re-emerge.

* The daily/one year chart below is defaulted for medium term use.

12305

[winner69]

Any sign of any Wages Subsidy for affected Auckland businesses for the 3 days
from the Bums on the Hill yet - or do they think it will be Wages for Free ? ;)

Hope not ...should have been saving for a rainy day

[nztx]

Hope not ...should have been saving for a rainy day


The same could be said for the current Govt too ..;)

[Vee Vee]

Thanks Hoop. Helpful as usual.

[Getty]

Hoop, thanks for sharing post#9004.

It vindicates my recent outlook.

[bull....]

we all know the party is going to end badly one day. just gotta hope you stumble of the bus at the right stop