Black Monday

[nztx]

Labour has won big, but now the real work starts

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300131366/election-2020-labour-has-won-big-but-now-the-real-work-starts

Labour has promised a big infrastructure building program. But how it is rolled out and what the priorities are remains to be seen

im hoping they enable the kiwisaver , super fund to help , will mean more projects can be done why rates are low , makes them all viable.


In summary the article says

The question will be whether Ardern is prepared to spend her political capital to do what needs to be done. John Key wasn’t. It will be a mark of leadership if she does









More large scale borrowing to cover the gaping hole Twyford failed so miserably to make slightest impression on ?

When Govt are up their ears in large creative hoc by $100 Bills, whats another 5 or 10 or so to add to the growing red ink pile ? ;)

[nztx]

How's everyone feeling at the mo with the market. I've got a feeling we have maybe
one more good week before we see a slide again. The u.s is so close to elections now somethings got to give.
Just feels a little like January where it lures you into a false sense of security then boom.
Thinking things will start to bounce in December. Only time will tell I guess ��


We're out of the current round Div season, but then lots of loose $'s out there looking for a more rewarding home than the banks
added to, by proceeds of a couple of Take Out bids coming up

Possibly more pressure on a limited number of reasonable equities could see SP rises and Div yields flattening further

Uniquely positioned Co's with reported increased bottom lines are likely to be equally attractive

No CGT under Ardern's leadership should bode well for further advances in prices

In recent weeks & months, one would have to have been fairly unlucky to be out of the money
touching any of most of the targets on a dartboard ;)

[Dlownz]

We're out of the current round Div season, but then lots of loose $'s out there looking for a more rewarding home than the banks
added to, by proceeds of a couple of Take Out bids coming up

Possibly more pressure on a limited number of reasonable equities could see SP rises and Div yields flattening further

Uniquely positioned Co's with reported increased bottom lines are likely to be equally attractive

No CGT under Ardern's leadership should bode well for further advances in prices

In recent weeks & months, one would have to have been fairly unlucky to be out of the money
touching any of most of the targets on a dartboard ;)

My thinking is its the u.s market which will affect the global market. They are still supercharged and artificially so. If they pop in the stimulus it may hold out a little longer

[dobby41]

How's everyone feeling at the mo with the market. I've got a feeling we have maybe
one more good week before we see a slide again. The u.s is so close to elections now somethings got to give.
Just feels a little like January where it lures you into a false sense of security then boom.
Thinking things will start to bounce in December. Only time will tell I guess ��

What gives you the feeling there is just one more good week?

[Hoop]

What gives you the feeling there is just one more good week?

Usually the accumulated bad/depressing news pops out of the woodworkl after each election.

[Dlownz]

More to do with the u.s elections. Nzs doing OK but the u.s has such a strong effect on the rest of the worlds markets

[peat]

The US500 lost all its gains in the last couple of hours, and more.

However, my mate says its only a 4th wave (corrective) and we should be looking out for the 5th.

[bull....]

3400 is key level to watch for support

[Hoop]

More to do with the u.s elections. Nzs doing OK but the u.s has such a strong effect on the rest of the worlds markets

No disagree...The Treasury puts out their compulsory fiscal responsible (as required by the Public Finance Act) Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (https://www.treasury.govt.nz/system/files/2020-09/prefu20.pdf) and that's it until after the elections...That update was released one month before the elections and that data is 2019-2020 financial year, the forecasts were updated as far back as mid August...thats a long time and both good and bad news has accumulated since then....

"...NZ's doing OK..." As with the rest of the world NZ has been considerably damaged economically..as with most other countries NZ has been forced to lower interests to zero or below, let house (property) prices rise rapidly to un-affordable levels so to create a wealth reservoir for Home owners, flood the markets with printed money, give money to the public and companies via wage subsidies etc..This is the recommended action to prevent a depression....Does that seem NZ is doing OK, might be to you Dlownz, but not me...Have a read of the Treasury report..It's forecast is gloomy e.g unemployment to peak at 7.8% in the March 2022 quarter.

I do agree that US has a strong effect on the World in general

Ref:
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/system/files/2020-09/prefu20.pdf (183 pages)
(https://www.treasury.govt.nz/system/files/2020-09/prefu20.pdf)https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/guide/guide-public-finance-act-html

[causecelebre]

The US500 lost all its gains in the last couple of hours, and more.

However, my mate says its only a 4th wave (corrective) and we should be looking out for the 5th.

Please, please don't listen to Elliotician's. I have wasted too much time with EW theory. It's beautiful when it works, especially when we have Fibonacci confluence but it's incredibly subjective and esoteric at best. When we are given 'alternate counts' it's akin to saying price will go up or price will go down.

[peat]

Please, please don't listen to Elliotician's. I have wasted too much time with EW theory. It's beautiful when it works, especially when we have Fibonacci confluence but it's incredibly subjective and esoteric at best. When we are given 'alternate counts' it's akin to saying price will go up or price will go down.

thanks for the concern
subjective and esoteric are where beauty lies

[causecelebre]

thanks for the concern
subjective and esoteric are where beauty lies

Fair call. I'm a born again quant. I just can't model EW. One Elliotitions' ABC is anothers WXY but therein lies the beauty for some aye?

[bull....]

ANZ economists expect the Reserve Bank to unveil the new funding for lending programme (FLP) next month and say it will need to involve a considerable amount to ensure maximum impact


ANZ economists estimate the Reserve Bank's new funding for lending programme (FLP) could be as large as $50 billion and they believe the amount available will need to be considerable to ensure maximum impact of the scheme.

https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/107638/anz-economists-expect-reserve-bank-unveil-new-funding-lending-programme-flp-next

[bull....]

inflation came in much lower than expected just now so should reinforce the view we need lower rates

[Dlownz]

How's everyone feeling at the mo with the market. I've got a feeling we have maybe
one more good week before we see a slide again. The u.s is so close to elections now somethings got to give.
Just feels a little like January where it lures you into a false sense of security then boom.
Thinking things will start to bounce in December. Only time will tell I guess 🙂

Is it happening

[tango]

Interesting times. Fear is high but the vaccine announcements look promising

[Balance]

NZ$ firm this morning even while NZ government 2 year swap rate dropped to 0.01% (yes, 0.01%).

Where are the tens of billions of dollars of term deposits money going to go to as they mature?

Property market is already overbought so let's see.

[tango]

Yes, exactly. The money is going into shares, home renovations and expensive toys

[bull....]

sp500 testing support area , see what happens as US election pre - moves happening in the broader range at the moment. anyway im resting this week for the after election volatility to come

[bull....]

support well and truely broken. europe tanking flowing thru to US ... lucky im resting from owning to much stocks at the moment

[Leftfield]

support well and truely broken. europe tanking flowing thru to US ... lucky im resting from owning to much stocks at the moment

With Covid set to hit hard during the Nth Hemisphere winter, plus the uncertainty facing the USA, I'm picking some cut price share bargains coming soon.

[bull....]

With Covid set to hit hard during the Nth Hemisphere winter, plus the uncertainty facing the USA, I'm picking some cut price share bargains coming soon.

yea i think if you get a big out break of virus again in asia as well as whats happening in europe and US, markets might go south like in march again.

france just announced a new lockdown as well germany partial lockdown

[petty]

LF Nailed it.

[BlackPeter]

With Covid set to hit hard during the Nth Hemisphere winter, plus the uncertainty facing the USA, I'm picking some cut price share bargains coming soon.

Share prices might well tank ... however not sure yet there will be bargains soon.

Average PE at the DOW is currently north of 26. I would call them bargains if it is below 10. This would be more than 60% down!

Might pay to keep some powder dry ...

[ratkin]

With Covid set to hit hard during the Nth Hemisphere winter, plus the uncertainty facing the USA, I'm picking some cut price share bargains coming soon.

Thank goodness for that, the market badly needs a reality check

[Biscuit]

Thank goodness for that, the market badly needs a reality check

The world is awash with cheap money - I wouldn't hold your breath.

[sb9]

The world is awash with cheap money - I wouldn't hold your breath.

Absolutely, high stake games being played by big fellas over in US like JP, MS, GS, UBS etc...

[couta1]

The world is awash with cheap money - I wouldn't hold your breath. Yep a temporal blip, in a little over a fortnight there will be nothing to see.

[Filthy]

Covid 2.0 incoming and US elections next week. Hope your all dancing close to the exit.

[couta1]

Covid 2.0 incoming and US elections next week. Hope your all dancing close to the exit. Why? we have seen it all before and we will see it all again in the future.

[whatsup]

NOT FORGETING THAT IT IS OCTOBER re October 1929 & October 1987 !!!!

[Biscuit]

NOT FORGETING THAT IT IS OCTOBER re October 1929 & October 1987 !!!!


Its not Monday though, so we're good.

[dobby41]

NOT FORGETING THAT IT IS OCTOBER re October 1929 & October 1987 !!!!

Not for long though!

[Timesurfer]

Yep a temporal blip, in a little over a fortnight there will be nothing to see.

You think the Donald will tame the bear when he is re-elected?

[Biscuit]

You think the Donald will tame the bear when he is re-elected?

Trump well on track to lose. It's too late for him to turn it around. When he goes, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief and the sharemarket will soar.

[blackcap]

Trump well on track to lose. It's too late for him to turn it around. When he goes, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief and the sharemarket will soar.

Trump actually is on track to lose but its not as emphatic as you think. Currently the smart money has the electoral college at 290-248 and Trump at 37% chance to win the presidency.

https://electionbettingodds.com/4hr.html

[Biscuit]

Trump actually is on track to lose but its not as emphatic as you think. Currently the smart money has the electoral college at 290-248 and Trump at 37% chance to win the presidency.

https://electionbettingodds.com/4hr.html


Maybe, he has loser written all over him at the moment. I'll eat my MAGA cap if he wins!

[greater fool]

It's not over until the Supreme Court says so..........................................
Why would you not re-elect the the greatest President ever?


......... snipped..........
This is going to be the best Presidential Election since 1968. Maybe the Greatest..... Ever.

[Biscuit]

It's not over until the Supreme Court says so..........................................
Why would you not re-elect the the greatest President ever?

a bit off thread - but Obama is not standing again.

[greater fool]

a bit off thread - but Obama is not standing again.

Maybe a Biden win will have Obama back in the WH.
The only thing he did as Potus was sitting in a bunker assassinating people with drone strikes. He'd be up for more of the same, surely?
And Hillary back as Sec of State. US is always looking for another permanent war zone.

[Biscuit]

Maybe a Biden win will have Obama back in the WH.
The only thing he did as Potus was sitting in a bunker assassinating people with drone strikes. He'd be up for more of the same, surely?
And Hillary back as Sec of State. US is always looking for another permanent war zone.

Personally, I think Obama was too weak on foreign policy but...


https://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/januaryfebruary-2017/obamas-top-50-accomplishments-revisited/

[Timesurfer]

I'll eat my MAGA cap if he wins!

Would you like fries with that?

The bear is running rampant today. Even companies releasing what I consider pretty good updates are bleeding red. Oddly some companies with no news are pops of green. I see no particular logic with those who are winners verses those who are losers. It is a fickle beast.

[Biscuit]

Would you like fries with that?

The bear is running rampant today...

Haha. Do you think the bear is rampant because of anticipation of a Trump win or a Biden win?

[dln]

A "no win" is the problem scenario.
A clear win either way will be positive (short term market-wise anyway).

[Biscuit]

A "no win" is the problem scenario.
A clear win either way will be positive (short term market-wise anyway).

No, a disputed Biden win is the problem scenario if the win is not definitive enough to drop the mic.

[bull....]

I think arnold swarzneggar should be president

[BlackPeter]

I think arnold swarzneggar should be president

I agree, Arnold made both an outstanding governor and he is as well a much better actor than Trump ... however, he is called
"Arnold Schwarzenegger"!

Spelling does matter.

Unfortunately - while every US born moron is able to become president (as the recent incumbent demonstrates) ... Arnold is born in Austria and therefore ineligible for this position. They do not want good people to become president in the Divided States ...

[Balance]

$14 billion left looking for a home after missing out on 7.5 years government bonds at 0.305% yield!

Don't lose sight of the big picture - where are the billions of dollars of bank deposits going to go to?

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/107706/govt

"New Zealand Debt Management (NZDM), the Treasury unit that oversees government borrowing, has issued a $4 billion bond after receiving bids of more than $18 billion.
Due to mature on May 15, 2028, the bonds have a yield to maturity of 0.305% and were issued at a spread of 13 basis points over the government's April 15, 2027 bond."

[bull....]

US Futures selling off at the moment after the big 4 of tech earnings.
apple didnt give any guidance going forward wass the big one

[bull....]

3200 area on the sp500 is the next support area needed to be tested. sept lows

[Dlownz]

I called this one the other week on this page. I'm sticking to December before we see any sort of turnaround. Next week will be more brutal than this.

[bull....]

I called this one the other week on this page. I'm sticking to December before we see any sort of turnaround. Next week will be more brutal than this.

good call. i agree next week could see some huge moves
the vix already nearly 40 so last time it got over this was feb/march

[Panda-NZ-]

Exciting opportunties may be coming up. time to refill the stockings in time for christmas.

[flyinglizard]

80% cash position since last week, waiting for coming major shakeup from US.

[Cyclical]

Exciting opportunties may be coming up. time to refill the stockings in time for christmas.


80% cash position since last week, waiting for coming major shakeup from US.

I'm expecting some good value to emerge next week too, but what if we've got it wrong and the market has already priced it in? There will be billions of dollars worth of powder sitting on the sidelines for next week which may well struggle to find a home at anticipated discounts. It'll be interesting.

[flyinglizard]

I'm expecting some good value to emerge next week too, but what if we've got it wrong and the market has already priced it in? There will be billions of dollars worth of powder sitting on the sidelines for next week which may well struggle to find a home at anticipated discounts. It'll be interesting.


The money can wait for the result coming out, right? big money should not gamble on uncertainty.

[Peitro]

I get the feeling that Monday maybe not so hot...anyone care to comment.
Last edited by easy money; 25-09-2015 at 05:50 AM.

5 years later, we may be finally on topic

[bull....]

I get the feeling that Monday maybe not so hot...anyone care to comment.
Last edited by easy money; 25-09-2015 at 05:50 AM.

5 years later, we may be finally on topic

next week will be wild maybe even the next mth or so depending on the results of US election , virus , stimulus , market trading in bubble territory etc etc

The volatility curve is flashing a sign of distress last seen in April

http://Volatility Markets Flash Signs of Distress After Turbulent Week


Inconclusive Election Poses ‘Terrifying Risk,’ Say Wall Street Analysts

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-30/inconclusive-election-poses-terrifying-risk-wall-street-votes?srnd=premium-asia


The stock market is overvalued, according to almost every measure dating to 1950
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-overvalued-according-to-almost-every-measure-dating-to-1950-11604068887?mod=home-page


On the charts a break below sept lows will be interesting for sure if it happens. could be your black monday there

nasdaq , sp500 potential double tops , nasdaq made all time highs artificially in my opinion due to concentrated push higher in certain name stocks which account for a large part of the market. sp500 followed due to index makeup
dow lower high and failed to make a new all time high
russell failed to make an all time high , more reflective of the entire economy

buckle up folks

[Entrep]

Lose 3200 on SP500 and we test 2800 rapidly

[Filthy]

Bojo just announced that England will go into a new four week lockdown starting Thursday....

[BlackPeter]

Bojo just announced that England will go into a new four week lockdown starting Thursday....

Probably just to make it easier for him to build his big wall in the middle of the channel in time for BREXIT to start in the New Year. UK will flourish ever after - no tourists, no exports, no imports, not healthcare workers and only English speaking crooks. Paradise!

[Zaphod]

Probably just to make it easier for him to build his big wall in the middle of the channel in time for BREXIT to start in the New Year. UK will flourish ever after - no tourists, no exports, no imports, not healthcare workers and only English speaking crooks. Paradise!

That is of course, not the fault of Boris, but of the EU for not granting the UK the ability to have their cake and eat it too. How horrid of them!

[Valuegrowth]

Market is due for a rotation out of growth stocks into defensive and value stocks.

[Jaa]

Come on guys, the EU is the most unfair trading block in the world except maybe Japan.

One of the main reasons the right wanted the UK to leave, a free trade economy simply was not possible while part of the EU. Since they have decided to leave, the UK should get on with it, rip the band aid off and leave without a deal. Ala NZ in the 80s. Just try to protect the people whose lives are disrupted much better than we managed.

[BlackPeter]

Come on guys, the EU is the most unfair trading block in the world except maybe Japan.

One of the main reasons the right wanted the UK to leave, a free trade economy simply was not possible while part of the EU. Since they have decided to leave, the UK should get on with it, rip the band aid off and leave without a deal. Ala NZ in the 80s. Just try to protect the people whose lives are disrupted much better than we managed.

EU - unfair? Not more than your statement is deluded, but apart from that ... absolutely - time for the UK to rip off the support and go it alone. It is fun to see BoJo running the country down the abyss ... he is trashing it the same way Trump trashed the US. Starting with plenty of Covid deaths and afterwards killing off the economy. That's what populists do.

Wait for lots of dead people and than come austerity. The UK will be the new Ukraine - cheap support of slave labour.

[dompf]

EU - unfair? Not more than your statement is deluded, but apart from that ... absolutely - time for the UK to rip off the support and go it alone. It is fun to see BoJo running the country down the abyss ... he is trashing it the same way Trump trashed the US. Starting with plenty of Covid deaths and afterwards killing off the economy. That's what populists do.

Wait for lots of dead people and than come austerity. The UK will be the new Ukraine - cheap support of slave labour.

I agree with BlackPeter I think he’s right, UK have a lot to do. The world is right now is in a shambles.

US is in for a ride from Wednesday; who knows what will happen but I fear it won’t be good for anyone.

[peat]

SP500 might have turned
Hammer followed by bullish engulfing on the daily.
12057

[Leftfield]

SP500 might have turned
Hammer followed by bullish engulfing on the daily.
12057

Thanks for sharing.

[peat]

candles showing the way again guys. I know you hate it when that happens.

[Baa_Baa]

candles showing the way again guys. I know you hate it when that happens.

Candles indispensable TA tool for reading sentiment.

[sb9]

More stimulus from RBA...

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut its cash rate to just 0.1% from 0.25% and announced a series of other measures aimed at supporting job creation and the recovery of the Australian economy from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The RBA's actions, including quantitative easing through the purchase of up to A$100 billion of federal and state government bonds, include;


a reduction in the cash rate target to 0.1%
a reduction in the target for the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond to around 0.1%
a reduction in the interest rate on new drawings under the Term Funding Facility for banks to 0.1%
a reduction in the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances to zero
the purchase of $100 billion of government bonds of maturities of around 5 to 10 years over the next six months.


https://www.interest.co.nz/news/107796/reserve-bank-australia-committed-doing-what-it-can-support-creation-jobs-cuts-cash-rate (https://www.interest.co.nz/news/107796/reserve-bank-australia-committed-doing-what-it-can-support-creation-jobs-cuts-cash-rate)

[winner69]

More stimulus from RBA...

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut its cash rate to just 0.1% from 0.25% and announced a series of other measures aimed at supporting job creation and the recovery of the Australian economy from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The RBA's actions, including quantitative easing through the purchase of up to A$100 billion of federal and state government bonds, include;


a reduction in the cash rate target to 0.1%
a reduction in the target for the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond to around 0.1%
a reduction in the interest rate on new drawings under the Term Funding Facility for banks to 0.1%
a reduction in the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances to zero
the purchase of $100 billion of government bonds of maturities of around 5 to 10 years over the next six months.


https://www.interest.co.nz/news/107796/reserve-bank-australia-committed-doing-what-it-can-support-creation-jobs-cuts-cash-rate (https://www.interest.co.nz/news/107796/reserve-bank-australia-committed-doing-what-it-can-support-creation-jobs-cuts-cash-rate)

Love how its always said to be stimulus

Never seems to work

[Aaron]

Love how its always said to be stimulus

Never seems to work

Really, have you seen house prices and stock market indexes lately. Looks to be working just fine to me. Not sure what happens as we near 0% interest rates but on the plus side there is no limit to asset prices at negative interest rates.

[peat]

Really, have you seen house prices and stock market indexes lately. Looks to be working just fine to me. Not sure what happens as we near 0% interest rates but on the plus side there is no limit to asset prices at negative interest rates.


Love how its always said to be stimulus

Never seems to work

yes I struggled to see how winner was concluding failure
perhaps by working , he meant getting the standard metrics of an economy upwards, such as GDP, lower unemployment etc. Its hard to know what effect these measures have in those areas, as there is no control.

Or maybe what winner means is that they never say 'Oh look I did the stimulus, and its worked, and now I can remove the stimulus" . Oh thats right they did try that some years after the GFC and markets had a hissy and they got scared and caved.

[Hoop]

We are witnessing one so-called "stimulus" after another..
Hell..we are "stimulating" so hard and so often the rates are going lower and lower into the negatives and there is a flood of available money to boot..yet the economy remains lacklustre and there are asset bubbles bubbling up everywhere..Kinda looks to me the previous "stimuli" have failed to fix the problems...
Actually, adding up all these "stimuli" the result may equal a time bomb..

[bull....]

3200 area on the sp500 is the next support area needed to be tested. sept lows

held the 3200 area support zone and tracking back up at the moment. still in a bigger range at highs though.

[blackcap]

I am really surprised that the markets are up this big. It looks like Biden is going to win a narrow victory but the results are yet undecided. Uncertainly is normally not good for markets but this is a huge rocket taking off.

[Balance]

I am really surprised that the markets are up this big. It looks like Biden is going to win a narrow victory but the results are yet undecided. Uncertainly is normally not good for markets but this is a huge rocket taking off.

No mayhem in the street - big relief.

No change in the status quo in the Senate vs Congress - companies especially tech will continue to escape scrutiny and are free to milk consumers.

Central banks continue to be in control of very very easy money conditions.

[King1212]

I could see huge disappointment here..as many people here are expecting crash...n most are in cash..yet the market is keep getting up...so long people!

[blackcap]

No mayhem in the street - big relief.

No change in the status quo in the Senate vs Congress - companies especially tech will continue to escape scrutiny and are free to milk consumers.

Central banks continue to be in control of very very easy money conditions.

You are right about the Senate and Congress having no change. I suppose the markets like that. But its going to be a contested Presidential election and likely going to the courts with a bunch of re-counts. That creates uncertainty. Central banks ultimately will dictate and yes the easy money will keep equities rising.

[bull....]

bush vrs gore was a contested contest and had to wait till dec before the supreme court decided. choppy to then? big rise probably as balance say relief lefties didnt get control of the house and senate

[blackcap]

bush vrs gore was a contested contest and had to wait till dec before the supreme court decided. choppy to then? big rise probably as balance say relief lefties didnt get control of the house and senate

Well lefties did get control of House with Speaker Pelosi reappointed, but they are ineffectual if they do not have the Senate. Yes it is looking very likely that the Senate will be won by the Republicans. That said, Harris as Potus could unleash some Executive Socialism hell.

[King1212]

Nah....no worries. Cheap money around.. market will keep going up till it burst out...

The question is when it will burst out?

Answer is when we are all not aware...just like corona virus

[Balance]

Nah....no worries. Cheap money around.. market will keep going up till it burst out...

The question is when it will burst out?

Answer is when we are all not aware...just like corona virus

Ride the Tiger hard but how to dismount without getting eaten alive? 😰

[bull....]

Well lefties did get control of House with Speaker Pelosi reappointed, but they are ineffectual if they do not have the Senate. Yes it is looking very likely that the Senate will be won by the Republicans. That said, Harris as Potus could unleash some Executive Socialism hell.

harris bit of an unknown but she likes weed anyway lower stimulus outcome with the senate controlled by republicans than if democrats won outright also this is reflected in the 10yr bonds plummeting also got to wonder how much growth policies will actually get achieved or will it just be 4yrs of nothing but sub - par growth trying to dig there way out of a recession hoping the fed doesnt run out of juice , contrary to what balance says money printing is not unlimited.

[King1212]

Yes balance....it is a share market..only the brave one will be rewarded

[Balance]

Yes balance....it is a share market..only the brave one will be rewarded

You can only win big when your desire to win exceeds your fear of losing. Easy to say, hard to do!

[King1212]

Yes... especially a lot of us here got burnt and scared with Feb n March crashed. Many have not back to the market yet...those people are all in property market.

Now us election passed ... expecting in flow of huge cash in the market with value stocks in the favour ....

Don't ask me what are nzx remaining value stocks.


Ahhh...will share it if people ask ....lol

[bull....]

and gold up another 22 dollars , etherum stalled but bitcoin still in rally mode in correllation with golds rise. they all probably rally cause of fed money printing which i have been bleating on about fore -ever would cause side effects.

trades still good , strong overnight for gold. as mentioned earlier on thread thought around the 1900 area would be the stall point and this has eventuated as the area of consolidation until the market decides which way next.

crytos. eg bitcoin etc on a tear but from a return perpective offering huge returns at the moment compared to other assets at the moment.

all related to the fact that money printing is not ending anytime soon and in fact the US election is confirming this because no stimulus until next yr as senate winner might not be known until then which means the only thing holding everything together is the money printing machines at the fed at the moment

[peat]

SP500 might have turned
Hammer followed by bullish engulfing on the daily.
12057

yep those candles worked
12065
note how the two candles beat the DMI+/- crossover (and of course we do have to wait for the bullish engulfing to complete before the signal is given).
The ADX on the daily is horribly lagging.

[bull....]

yep those candles worked
12065
note how the two candles beat the DMI+/- crossover (and of course we do have to wait for the bullish engulfing to complete before the signal is given).
The ADX on the daily is horribly lagging.

indexes getting back to the top of the range

[bull....]

Orr Readies New RBNZ Stimulus Tool as Step Toward Negative Rates


Orr is expected to lay out plans on Nov. 11 to provide cheap loans to banks, giving them scope to further reduce lending rates

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-08/orr-readies-new-rbnz-stimulus-tool-as-step-toward-negative-rates?srnd=premium-asia

[Greekwatchdog]

Santas early...https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

[bull....]

Santas early...https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

massive better buy buy buy

[ratkin]

Convenient all the drug companies have cures the day after Biden wins.

[King1212]

Come on ...this is a great news... finally mankind has hope!

[Raz]

Come on ...this is a great news... finally mankind has hope!

Sure its hope and the market opportunity is obvious..just in the real world who wants to be in the 10% not effective.. market demand will come back yet will be tempered by this reality.

[janner]

Agree.

Apart from the wins bit ... It is only the media that has crowned him.

Nothing " official " has been announced. Fact.

[King1212]

Too many of u holding Cash...don't want see the vaccine good news....well..I could understand it...the train is leaving,,,, tut....tuttt

[Gunner]

Sure its hope and the market opportunity is obvious..just in the real world who wants to be in the 10% not effective.. market demand will come back yet will be tempered by this reality.

If 90% are effectively resistant to the virus then the economy will truck on. Many people also will choose not to get the vaccine but the majority that do will create a barrier and prevent the rolling lockdowns we've seen overseas for continuing.

[janner]

Too many of u holding Cash...don't want see the vaccine good news....well..I could understand it...the train is leaving,,,, tut....tuttt

Should that not be.

Chuff Chuff Chuffed. ?

[Raz]

If 90% are effectively resistant to the virus then the economy will truck on. Many people also will choose not to get the vaccine but the majority that do will create a barrier and prevent the rolling lockdowns we've seen overseas for continuing.

Sure, in time, what would be the timeline for that be thou...that is a massive vaccine program.

[Greekwatchdog]

Ratkin, that's a very cynical comment.

[Gunner]

Sure, in time, what would be the timeline for that be thou...that is a massive vaccine program.

Hope is better than nothing.

[stoploss]

Hope is better than nothing.
They are saying can produce 1.3 bio by end of 2021

[Balance]

Too many of u holding Cash...don't want see the vaccine good news....well..I could understand it...the train is leaving,,,, tut....tuttt

Hard to believe that anyone could read anything negative into the vaccine announcement!

The train is gathering pace and there will be many still waiting for the train to return to the station.

[couta1]

Hard to believe that anyone could read anything negative into the vaccine announcement!

The train is gathering pace and there will be many still waiting for the train to return to the station. Your welcome to your tracking vaccine, I've never taken the flu vaccine and I won't be taking this one even though it may eventually become compulsory.

[Balance]

Your welcome to your tracking vaccine, I've never taken the flu vaccine and I won't be taking this one even though it may eventually become compulsory.

It will not be compulsory in NZ but yes, will be in other countries like Australia.

No vaccination - no access to benefits & to schooling.

No vaccination certificate, no entry into Australia.

[jonu]

Come on ...this is a great news... finally mankind has hope!

Some would say we have had that for 2000 years!

[Balance]

Some would say we have had that for 2000 years!

Only if you are a Christian.

If you are a Jew, you are still waiting.

If you are a Hindu or Buddhist, you would have been reborn 20+ times at least!

[bull....]

big roration out of tech and stay at home stocks today in the US

[Leftfield]

big roration out of tech and stay at home stocks today in the US


You still shorting ATM Bull?

[bull....]

You still shorting ATM Bull?

ya , i was long from 13.30 aus the other day but out now ( you can run multiple positions from different accounts)

[Leftfield]

ya , i was long from 13.30 aus the other day but out now ( you can run multiple positions from different accounts)

Crikey..... I don't know how you sleep at night!

Well done tho'.

[couta1]

It will not be compulsory in NZ but yes, will be in other countries like Australia.

No vaccination - no access to benefits & to schooling.

No vaccination certificate, no entry into Australia. Haha even more reasons for me not to go to Aussie, never liked the place.

[blackcap]

Haha even more reasons for me not to go to Aussie, never liked the place.

With you on that one. Bye bye Australia, nice knowing you.

[jonu]

I figured a lot of stocks already have recovery factored in and don't see much genuine upside other than a sugar rush like this morning's vaccine speculation.
That's why I dipped into THL this morning. Genuine sustained upside to come.

[peat]

I've sold a chunk into this rally....

Some longs have been sold out and a short ....

Dont get me wrong , bull is not over but I suspect there will be a dip soonish, after all we just hit ATH on SP500

I have to rotate as well. '+)

[Biscuit]

I've sold a chunk into this rally....

Some longs have been sold out and a short ....

Dont get me wrong , bull is not over but I suspect there will be a dip soonish, after all we just hit ATH on SP500

I have to rotate as well. '+)

I've been loading up over the last 6 months, have re-balanced towards shares and I see this having a long way to run. Just my opinion.

[peat]

I've been loading up over the last 6 months, have re-balanced towards shares and I see this having a long way to run. Just my opinion.

Yes I'm trading more and more.... so I dont disagree with you in the medium term.... dont worry I am still 'in' if the market keeps going straight up.

But so much excitement and so little concrete positive stuff yet.

[ratkin]

Am never happy when the market goes up, always wishing had bought more.

[Biscuit]

Am never happy when the market goes up, always wishing had bought more.

Haha, me too!

[peat]

hate to say this folks but SPX500 did a shooting star.

12078

I shoot you not.

[winner69]

Central bankers have become irrelevant in these low inflation days

Orr will make out he’s still very important and today will come up with something that he wrongfully will think will stimulate the economy

Better if he shut up and went on extended leave ....wasted space

[bull....]

rotation out of tech into covid recovery stocks continuing today in the US , expecting similar price action in NZ/USD. be watching NZD today following ORR's statement hoping for a spike too resistance around 69c then i can lock some USD in for my upcoming black friday sales day in the US

[winner69]

rotation out of tech into covid recovery stocks continuing today in the US , expecting similar price action in NZ/AUS. be watching NZD today following ORR's statement hoping for a spike too resistance around 69c then i can lock some USD in for my upcoming black friday sales day in the US

Just what I was saying .....Orr and his mates around the world exist these days pretending they are actually doing things to stimulate the economy but really their masters are finance guys who know that every meaningless word will ‘shift’ the markets for an hour or two .....they need this to happen a lot for themselves to remain relevance ...but not productive and add stuff all to the economy.

[bull....]

Just what I was saying .....Orr and his mates around the world exist these days pretending they are actually doing things to stimulate the economy but really their masters are finance guys who know that every meaningless word will ‘shift’ the markets for an hour or two .....they need this to happen a lot for themselves to remain relevance ...but not productive and add stuff all to the economy.

as house prices go up and stock prices go up you feel wealthy dont you winner , might even want to splash some of your new wealth around by buying stuff. as for the rest im in the camp that likes helicopter money deposited directly into lower income peoples bank accounts but that is not orrs fault that is a govt decision.

[peat]

its weird that Black Monday has become a default general chat thread.... esp given how sharemarket investors are meant to be optimistic people. Not that I am.


I'm picking a slightly drawn out consolidation on the US market at this stage , exactly like for OCA after its shooting star candle - where we are still seeing relative weakness - because its the same pattern on the SPX500 yesterday. Lets see how this one plays out. we haven't seen the ideal down day today to follow that up but it has stayed low and hasnt closed yet.

[bull....]

Reserve Bank makes surprising announcement on move to reinstate lending restrictions in face of searing housing market; has also announced further delay in introducing new bank capital requirements till 2022

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107905/reserve-bank-makes-surprising-announcement-move-reinstate-lending-restrictions-face

wonder if the meeting with grant had anything to do with these surprise announcements

[macduffy]

Nothing surprising about signalling a move back to LTV ratios. Some of us have been calling for and expecting them for some time.

[peat]

Reserve Bank ..... has also announced further delay in introducing new bank capital requirements till 2022

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107905/reserve-bank-makes-surprising-announcement-move-reinstate-lending-restrictions-face



note that also

the RBNZ also says its moratorium on banks paying dividends and redeeming bonds, put in place in April (https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/104388/rbnz-offers-banks-more-help-encourage-them-keep-lending-cost-it-restricts-them-paying), will continue until at least March 31 next year "to support the stability of the financial system."

[winner69]

Orr talks about moving back to LVRs and a bit later signals that banks can get cheap money apparently for housing (not just business as some indicated)

He’s lost the plot .....needs a long holiday

[bull....]

he also said he is not too worried about the house prices as its more of a structural supply issue in nz .. has been for donkey yrs

[ratkin]

Not sure this world rally will hold, everyone been having an end of Trump and Covid party. Once they wake up with their hangover there will still be Covid, and the world will still be in a hole, Trump or no Trump

[Baa_Baa]

Not sure this world rally will hold, everyone been having an end of Trump and Covid party. Once they wake up with their hangover there will still be Covid, and the world will still be in a hole, Trump or no Trump

You're such a joy germ, scared ****less about pretty much everything, good or bad. Hope it doesn't get in the way of making a few bob as the market gifts us unprecedented opportunities for those that can stomach the circumstances.

[bull....]

US markets up again bumping the top of the range though , so a break thru the top could lead to some more good gains. mentioned yesterday nzd/usd might hit resistance at 69c after the rbnz news and it has indeed still up on the day and looking strong overall

[Bjauck]

Not sure this world rally will hold, everyone been having an end of Trump and Covid party. Once they wake up with their hangover there will still be Covid, and the world will still be in a hole, Trump or no Trump

I agree we are not out of the woods, Pfizer vaccine progress notwithstanding.

Reserve Bank of NZ is making sure interest rates remain low and is busy inflating the housing price bubble. Basically Orr is telling investors to fill their boots with mortgage debt. After all Labour says no general CGT under their watch - so chase those leveraged property capital gains; the Kiwi way. So what goes up, goes up for ever...(forget history?)

Are the Reserve Bank Board assessed for any conflict of interest?

[Balance]

Watch the tens of billions of dollars (in NZ) of maturing bank deposits flood into property & stocks, especially high yielding stocks in the next 12 months.

Already happening and will accelerate as savers get almost zero interest income shock.

[macduffy]

I agree we are not out of the woods, Pfizer vaccine progress notwithstanding.

Reserve Bank of NZ is making sure interest rates remain low and is busy inflating the housing price bubble. Basically Orr is telling investors to fill their boots with mortgage debt. After all Labour says no general CGT under their watch - so chase those leveraged property capital gains; the Kiwi way. So what goes up, goes up for ever...(forget history?)

Are the Reserve Bank Board assessed for any conflict of interest?

Blame the mandate given to the RBNZ. It doesn't include anything about house prices or affordability.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Watch the tens of billions of dollars (in NZ) of maturing bank deposits flood into property & stocks, especially high yielding stocks in the next 12 months.

Already happening and will accelerate as savers get almost zero interest income shock.

It really is a house of cards waiting to fall over, but I can't see it changing any time soon. All this new money has to go somewhere... "cash is trash"

[peat]

Blame the mandate given to the RBNZ. It doesn't include anything about house prices or affordability.

But they have always voiced concerns about these areas in the guise of stability which is part of their mandate. Stability can be a social mandate as well as a financial one although prolly not expressed that way in the legislation.
House prices should be included in inflation , its crazy how CPI doesnt do this. They use rent which distorts the picture when there is so much QE.

[Bjauck]

Blame the mandate given to the RBNZ. It doesn't include anything about house prices or affordability.True. However from its website it expressly says: "The Bank also aims to keep employment near its maximum sustainable level and promotes a sound and efficient financial system." The Bank is tasked with maintaining price stability.

It is arguable that if it does not ensure that lending is immediately channelled into business sustaining employment as opposed to mortgage lending further inflating the price of land, then it is failing.

The RBNZ has recognised that the housing market has supply constraints. Consequently encouraging banks to lend at low interest rates without immediately restricting the amount they can lend via residential lending, especially to investors, is encouraging further land price inflation (and not price stability) and not encouraging investment to help support employment during the covid recession, which is an expressed aim for the RBNZ.

Also it is arguable that allowing runaway property inflation to continue during the covid recession, the soundness and efficiency will be increasingly tested when interest rates can no longer drop further.

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do

[Aaron]

But they have always voiced concerns about these areas in the guise of stability which is part of their mandate. Stability can be a social mandate as well as a financial one although prolly not expressed that way in the legislation.
House prices should be included in inflation , its crazy how CPI doesnt do this. They use rent which distorts the picture when there is so much QE.

This was a link macduffy gave me, it breaks down the CPI components. House prices only a small part of CPI.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/91579/statistics-nz-completes-its-3-yearly-review-cpi-components-monitor-consumer-inflation

[Balance]

This was a link macduffy gave me, it breaks down the CPI components. House prices only a small part of CPI.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/91579/statistics-nz-completes-its-3-yearly-review-cpi-components-monitor-consumer-inflation

House prices are considered to be of a capital nature - rental is not.

[Bjauck]

But they have always voiced concerns about these areas in the guise of stability which is part of their mandate. Stability can be a social mandate as well as a financial one although prolly not expressed that way in the legislation.
House prices should be included in inflation , its crazy how CPI doesnt do this. They use rent which distorts the picture when there is so much QE.
I think home ownership costs are given a weighting, however I am not sure what weighting is given to the cost of land.
http://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/economic_indicators/cpi_inflation/home-ownership-in-the-cpi.aspx#gsc.tab=0

[DDog]

Level 1.5 / 2 coming for Auckland?

[Zaphod]

Level 1.5 / 2 coming for Auckland?

Depending on whether they can successfully contract trace the individual in question, along with the rest of the people living in the apartment complex I presume, we may avoid an increase in levels, however I'm certain it'll happen again before too long.

The authorities will need to very quickly put some additional procedures in place surrounding building evacuations to contain spread. If that is the cause, and it's looking likely, it's an appalling lapse.

Every cycle of alert level we go through will have an increasingly large effect on the economy.

[Balance]

Depending on whether they can successfully contract trace the individual in question, along with the rest of the people living in the apartment complex I presume, we may avoid an increase in levels, however I'm certain it'll happen again before too long.

The authorities will need to very quickly put some additional procedures in place surrounding building evacuations to contain spread. If that is the cause, and it's looking likely, it's an appalling lapse.

Every cycle of alert level we go through will have an increasingly large effect on the economy.

Simple - do what is the right thing for the greater good which is to lockdown said apartments as a starting point until such time as all occupants are have tested negative and are cleared.

If the government can lock down a whole country with huge costs, they can jolly well lock down selected places.

[bull....]

just got a email saying the pb tech black friday sale ( instore only ) is postponed a further update will be provided after 1 pm govt announcement today

[peat]

note how the US was very subdued for a couple of days following the identified shooting star and is now beginning to confirm.
12090

[JBmurc]

I see Biden's advisors want 6wk lockdown across many states and cities ... Markets could well be in for some major corrections before long the BUBBLE will burst

[Baa_Baa]

I see Biden's advisors want 6wk lockdown across many states and cities ... Markets could well be in for some major corrections before long the BUBBLE will burst

Biden not President until January, assuming trump leaves

[bull....]

I see Biden's advisors want 6wk lockdown across many states and cities ... Markets could well be in for some major corrections before long the BUBBLE will burst

thats probably because on current trajectory US hospitals in some states will be over welmed by patients. also no stimulus coming until next year and who knows what trump will do going into january makes for risky times still. probably why bitcoin etc going bangers , new safe haven trade

[Balance]

I see Biden's advisors want 6wk lockdown across many states and cities ... Markets could well be in for some major corrections before long the BUBBLE will burst

Means interest rates will go negative faster & earlier.

What will that do to markets?

[BlackPeter]

I see Biden's advisors want 6wk lockdown across many states and cities ... Markets could well be in for some major corrections before long the BUBBLE will burst

Never worry about Biden and his advisors. Before Bidens inauguration on January 20th the raging toddler and his team of crooks will kill off at least another 200,000 Americans. They killed only yesterday nearly 1500 Americans (one days toll) and the toll is steeply rising. Dead bodies everywhere thanks to Trump - and they won't be able to hide them all.

Just wonder what all these dead bodies will do to the markets? Though - it is a great time for idiots, undertakers and conman ...

[bull....]

virus deaths have gone from 5000 per day to over 10000 per day now in the space of a few mths could well be 20000 day in another few mths such is the growth rate

[dibble]

Never worry about Biden and his advisors. Before Bidens inauguration on January 20th the raging toddler and his team of crooks will kill off at least another 200,000 Americans. They killed only yesterday nearly 1500 Americans (one days toll) and the toll is steeply rising.
.

Very glass half empty.... think of the 319,800,000 he hasnt managed to kill. Raging success for Pence and his hard-working competent response team.

[Sideshow Bob]

Very glass half empty.... think of the 319,800,000 he hasnt managed to kill. Raging success for Pence and his hard-working competent response team.

Not to mention the 150,000 of new cases in the last 24 hours......

[bull....]

RBNZ’s Orr Says New Covid Case Is Reminder of Risks Ahead
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-12/rbnz-s-orr-says-new-covid-case-is-reminder-of-risks-ahead?srnd=premium-asia

[winner69]

RBNZ’s Orr Says New Covid Case Is Reminder of Risks Ahead
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-12/rbnz-s-orr-says-new-covid-case-is-reminder-of-risks-ahead?srnd=premium-asia

Defence Force staff have long Friday lunches

Adrian renowned for doing much the same .....probably does it to get a feel for mood of the country

[clip]

thats probably because on current trajectory US hospitals in some states will be over welmed by patients. also no stimulus coming until next year and who knows what trump will do going into january makes for risky times still. probably why bitcoin etc going bangers , new safe haven trade

paypal/venmo are implementing crypto wallets, probably a bigger contributor to the BTC price rise.

[bull....]

paypal/venmo are implementing crypto wallets, probably a bigger contributor to the BTC price rise.

more alround acceptance of cryto even the fund managers are investing in it now in a bigger way. central banks all developing a digital future. naysayers missed a big opportunity on this bitcoin up 60% since the breakout above 10k probably many other crypto up much more

[Gunner]

more alround acceptance of cryto even the fund managers are investing in it now in a bigger way. central banks all developing a digital future. naysayers missed a big opportunity on this bitcoin up 60% since the breakout above 10k probably many other crypto up much more

Crypto currency is the definition of speculation

[sb9]

Level 1.5 / 2 coming for Auckland?

Akl may have dodged the bullet, relief for now...

[causecelebre]

Crypto currency is the definition of speculation

Who cares if you are making money. I'm up 1431% (9th oct), 389% (22 oct) and 51% (6th nov) on my current perp swap positions. Before this trade i'm up 40% for the calendar years with an average draw down of 1.36% (2.34% max DD)

[Gunner]

Who cares if you are making money. I'm up 1431% (9th oct), 389% (22 oct) and 51% (6th nov) on my current perp swap positions. Before this trade i'm up 40% for the calendar years with an average draw down of 1.36% (2.34% max DD)

It's great until the music stops

[Jaa]

Or your exchange blows up as they seem to on the regular.

[causecelebre]

It's great until the music stops

I've beed trading leveraged crypto derivative's for some years and the band just keeps on playing....'18 wasn't the best year but was still in the black, however, after '17 that was fine. I'm not a hodlr. I don't have an opinion on the validity of crypto. I'm in it to make money and the barrier to entry for my algo's is very low. Once my systems' stop performing them i'm out.

Anyway i'm on this forum to learn about NZX equities....so thanks all !

[Zaphod]

Akl may have dodged the bullet, relief for now...

No need for level changes, as Hipkins said today they are aiming to reduce the number of times we move through levels. Now, with the proposed rule changes, L1 is becoming L2. Problem solved. I'm sure the market will like it.

[King1212]

Stock rotation continues in USa... investors are buying beaten stocks. Moderna result is coming soon

[Hoop]

I would have thought this news snippet From Seeking Alpha (13th Nov 4.40am ET) (https://seekingalpha.com/news/3635989-largest-free-trade-deal-ever-to-be-signed-this-weekend?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha) would have made front page news in NZ..but apparently NZ hair shampoo, Fran's opinion on Chris Luxon, and Mary's view on retiring at 40 years are the business headlines in the NZH for today.

Hmmm...The News seems genuine but I cant sight it in other Country's newspapers either..maybe yet to be announced?

Largest Free Trade Deal Ever To Be Signed This Weekend

Highlights:
1...China to sign a mega trade deal this weekend with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand together with 10 ASEAN member countries.
2...This Economic Partnership, covers 30% of global GDP and trade.
3...Objective of this deal is to reduce tariffs, strengthen supply chains and organise new e-commerce rules.
4...Covers many economies and goods.
5...Negotiations have been on going for years.

[BlackPeter]

I would have thought this news snippet From Seeking Alpha (13th Nov 4.40am ET) (https://seekingalpha.com/news/3635989-largest-free-trade-deal-ever-to-be-signed-this-weekend?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha) would have made front page news in NZ..but apparently NZ hair shampoo, Fran's opinion on Chris Luxon, and Mary's view on retiring at 40 years are the business headlines in the NZH for today.

Hmmm...The News seems genuine but I cant sight it in other Country's newspapers either..maybe yet to be announced?

Largest Free Trade Deal Ever To Be Signed This Weekend

Highlights:
1...China to sign a mega trade deal this weekend with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand together with 10 ASEAN member countries.
2...This Economic Partnership, covers 30% of global GDP and trade.
3...Objective of this deal is to reduce tariffs, strengthen supply chains and organise new e-commerce rules.
4...Covers many economies and goods.
5...Negotiations have been on going for years.

Interesting find. Though there used to be an article in bloomberg 2 days ago ... that's probably where seeking alpha got it from:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-12/deal-near-for-world-s-biggest-free-trade-zone-anchored-by-china

and the BBC chimed in as well:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54899254

Otherwise - silence. Very unusual.

[Hoop]

I would have thought this news snippet From Seeking Alpha (13th Nov 4.40am ET) (https://seekingalpha.com/news/3635989-largest-free-trade-deal-ever-to-be-signed-this-weekend?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha) would have made front page news in NZ..but apparently NZ hair shampoo, Fran's opinion on Chris Luxon, and Mary's view on retiring at 40 years are the business headlines in the NZH for today.

Hmmm...The News seems genuine but I cant sight it in other Country's newspapers either..maybe yet to be announced?

Largest Free Trade Deal Ever To Be Signed This Weekend

Highlights:
1...China to sign a mega trade deal this weekend with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand together with 10 ASEAN member countries.
2...This Economic Partnership, covers 30% of global GDP and trade.
3...Objective of this deal is to reduce tariffs, strengthen supply chains and organise new e-commerce rules.
4...Covers many economies and goods.
5...Negotiations have been on going for years.

Finally got some NZ Media attention after Sunday's signing of the Agreement.

No real public media fanfare nor any tangible specifics (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123400830/signing-rcep-trade-puts-nz-economy-in-best-possible-position-post-covid) for something that theoretically is going to add 1% to our GDP growth...Oh well ...At least it may help to add $2 billion to counter the loss of $10 Billion (GDP)..(so far) during the 2019-2020 period.

[Balance]

And here’s a nice summary of why the US markets continue to head higher:

"About 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings and IBES estimate that profits fell 7.8% from last year. That’s bad, but not as bad as earlier expectations for decline of over 20%."

Plus we all know that Central Banks and governments are on standby to flood the markets and economies with as much money as needed to cushion the pandemic fallout.

[peat]

I had read about that trade deal Hoop - though I cant recall where exactly.
It is in Businessdesk this morning behind the pay wall of course. https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/trade-is-back-toiling-rewarded-with-regional-trade-deal

[Bjauck]

I had read about that trade deal Hoop - though I cant recall where exactly.
It is in Businessdesk this morning behind the pay wall of course. https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/trade-is-back-toiling-rewarded-with-regional-trade-deal
Interesting news* especially With Brexit and Trump trying to destroy trade co-operation on the other sides of the World.

*As long as labour, environmental and other standards are not compromised...

[Balance]

Interesting news* especially With Brexit and Trump trying to destroy trade co-operation on the other sides of the World.

*As long as labour, environmental and other standards are not compromised...

The rest of the world are getting on with life.

[Raz]

Finally got some NZ Media attention after Sunday's signing of the Agreement.

No real public media fanfare nor any tangible specifics (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123400830/signing-rcep-trade-puts-nz-economy-in-best-possible-position-post-covid) for something that theoretically is going to add 1% to our GDP growth...Oh well ...At least it may help to add $2 billion to counter the loss of $10 Billion (GDP)..(so far) during the 2019-2020 period.

There is always trade offs perhaps they do not wish them to be highlighted...after all the last FTA was rather one sided.

[winner69]

Free (preferential) trade agreements are always welcome and touted as a win win etc etc

But our foreign trade performance over many years has been rather mediocre




chart courtesy mhreddell

[bull....]

A coup for China’: Analysts react to the world’s largest trade deal that excludes the U.S
Analysts said economic benefits from the mega trade pact are modest and would take years to materialize

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/rcep-15-asia-pacific-countries-including-china-sign-worlds-largest-trade-deal.html

anyway bitcoin is on fire

[King1212]

Moderna vaccine 94 % effective.... corona hit stocks will soar again

[couta1]

Moderna vaccine 94 % effective.... corona hit stocks will soar again Hopefully Bill Gates is not invested in it, whatever I won't be taking it anyway although Cindy might make it compulsory yet.

[King1212]

No worries couta....no body is forcing u to take. Just like other vaccines...u have a right to choose.

If u Happy not to travel or n is pretty safe n covid under control...we should be fine.

Europe n USA will be fist two countries desperate to get the vaccine

[couta1]

No worries couta....no body is forcing u to take. Just like other vaccines...u have a right to choose.

If u Happy not to travel or n is pretty safe n covid under control...we should be fine.

Europe n USA will be fist two countries desperate to get the vaccine If you are a normal healthy individual then just like the flu vaccine there is absolutely no reason to take this one.

[Gunner]

If you are a normal healthy individual then just like the flu vaccine there is absolutely no reason to take this one.

That blanket statement is simply not true. Yes, less risk but not as simple as that.

[mfd]

If you are a normal healthy individual then just like the flu vaccine there is absolutely no reason to take this one.

I take the flu vaccine every year, despite being young and healthy. Every vaccine is a minor superpower as far as I'm concerned - besides potentially stopping me from getting sick occasionally, it should help prevent others getting sick who may be more susceptible. I work in healthcare so I consider that particularly important.

We are incredibly lucky to live in an age where vaccines are so common.

[couta1]

I take the flu vaccine every year, despite being young and healthy. Every vaccine is a minor superpower as far as I'm concerned - besides potentially stopping me from getting sick occasionally, it should help prevent others getting sick who may be more susceptible. I work in healthcare so I consider that particularly important.

We are incredibly lucky to live in an age where vaccines are so common. I've worked in Healthcare for 30 yrs but now very much part time.

[couta1]

That blanket statement is simply not true. Yes, less risk but not as simple as that. You are entitled to your opinion but I stand by my statement.

[Balance]

A coup for China’: Analysts react to the world’s largest trade deal that excludes the U.S
[COLOR=#171717][FONT="]Analysts said economic benefits from the mega trade pact are modest and would take years to materialize


Thank goodness for our economic future that NZ is definitely on the right side of the trade equation in being a party to the trade deal.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/trump-team-responsible-for-dooming-us-hegemony/

The US has lost the trade war with China and US is in a terminal but slow state of economic decline.

Excerpts :

"Although Trump himself is impulsive and unpredictable, I thought back then that when it came to China policy, his team comprised hard-eyed, cold-hearted, rational strategists. However, Krugman termed these people morons, the worst, and the dumbest. So I thought he was gravely prejudiced against the Trump team. But now, after watching the Trump team’s China policies in action on trade and technology, I am forced to admit they have proved Krugman correct: They are exactly what he accused them of being."

"If Joe Biden wins the November 3 presidential election, the US will have to relinquish global domination and exceptionalism to end its trade and tech war. Team Biden will face colossal challenges in its trade and technology negotiations with China.

So as it turned out, the Trump team is indeed the herd of the morons and dumbest policymakers that Krugman described. He was right, and I was wrong."

[mike2020]

I take the flu vaccine every year, despite being young and healthy. Every vaccine is a minor superpower as far as I'm concerned - besides potentially stopping me from getting sick occasionally, it should help prevent others getting sick who may be more susceptible. I work in healthcare so I consider that particularly important.

We are incredibly lucky to live in an age where vaccines are so common.

Completely agree. I was a solo parent working 50+ hours a week and every year flu made for some hellish weeks till we used the vaccines. Only did it for 3 years but what a difference it made.

Looks like Trump is tweeting the USA into a bad Christmas. They only have themselves to blame but are we all going to pay?

[alokdhir]

Trade aspirations and requirements of China and USA are totally different ...China needs markets for its cheaply mass produced common person goods etc where as USA needs Governments on its sellers list for hi tech super costly weapons and other highly value added goods like planes etc .

Also USA thinks its the biggest economy on earth and its business is more important to others then theirs to US ...rightly or wrongly thats how most have taken it so far ...Economic power even over shadows its military might ...

But for NZ as a small low tech / agricultural based soft commodity producer ...it works very well to be on side of as many economies as it can ...

We are much better placed then majority of the countries at this time of this pandemic only because of our superb exports performance as demand for NZ soft commodity exports is much less elastic then goods exported by China / Australia etc ...

Now we are the lucky country ...:p

[BlackPeter]

If you are a normal healthy individual then just like the flu vaccine there is absolutely no reason to take this one.

This statement is plainly wrong. While it is correct that the flu fatality risk for "normal healthy individuals" is low - they are (when infected) still spreading the virus around to less healthy parts of society who well may die from the flu.

Taking the flu shot is for anybody one easy measure to protect the general population. No reason to take the shot?

https://www.healthline.com/health/flu-shot-pros-and-cons#shot-vs-spray


You are entitled to your opinion but I stand by my statement.

Everybody is entitled to their opinion. Its like with religion - no matter how nonsensical somebody's religious views might look to anybody else (and they always do ...), we are all entitled to them unless we are actively using these views to damage other peoples health and livelihoods.

Spreading misleading and wrong health information is damaging to others. Any spreader of anti vaccer mumbo jumbo is directly responsible for killing people. We have seen that in Samoa (measles), we see that in many third world countries (Anti vaccers against polio vaccination) and no doubt we sill see that in many parts of the world when the Covid vaccine is rolled out.

No need to jump on the bandwagon of lies and conspiracy theories.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/technology/coronavirus-vaccine-disinformation.html

[couta1]

This statement is plainly wrong. While it is correct that the flu fatality risk for "normal healthy individuals" is low - they are (when infected) still spreading the virus around to less healthy parts of society who well may die from the flu.

Taking the flu shot is for anybody one easy measure to protect the general population. No reason to take the shot?

https://www.healthline.com/health/flu-shot-pros-and-cons#shot-vs-spray



Everybody is entitled to their opinion. Its like with religion - no matter how nonsensical somebody's religious views might look to anybody else (and they always do ...), we are all entitled to them unless we are actively using these views to damage other peoples health and livelihoods.

Spreading misleading and wrong health information is damaging to others. Any spreader of anti vaccer mumbo jumbo is directly responsible for killing people. We have seen that in Samoa (measles), we see that in many third world countries (Anti vaccers against polio vaccination) and no doubt we sill see that in many parts of the world when the Covid vaccine is rolled out.

No need to jump on the bandwagon of lies and conspiracy theories.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/technology/coronavirus-vaccine-disinformation.html I would steer you and others to goggle and read "The Flu Vaccine is bad medicine" which demonstrates the science against flu vaccines and Tamiflu. Nothing to do with lies and conspiracy theories, don't make false assumptions.

[Balance]

Trade aspirations and requirements of China and USA are totally different ...China needs markets for its cheaply mass produced common person goods etc where as USA needs Governments on its sellers list for hi tech super costly weapons and other highly value added goods like planes etc .

Also USA thinks its the biggest economy on earth and its business is more important to others then theirs to US ...rightly or wrongly thats how most have taken it so far ...Economic power even over shadows its military might ...

But for NZ as a small low tech / agricultural based soft commodity producer ...it works very well to be on side of as many economies as it can ...

We are much better placed then majority of the countries at this time of this pandemic only because of our superb exports performance as demand for NZ soft commodity exports is much less elastic then goods exported by China / Australia etc ...

Now we are the lucky country ...:p

We are indeed the lucky country and it is a credit to the Clark & Key governments that they steered NZ through the myriad of geopolitical & trade considerations & tensions to maintain NZ's neutral stance with the Asian trading bloc.

[alokdhir]

We are indeed the lucky country and it is a credit to the Clark & Key governments that they steered NZ through the myriad of geopolitical & trade considerations & tensions to maintain NZ's neutral stance with the Asian trading bloc.

Fully agree ...importance of neutrality to NZ is far greater then most other countries ...Also the wisdom of our leaders ...our collective sense of fairness ...

Normally people get leaders which they choose / deserve ...as leaders also come out of same society and in true democracy ( which we are a shining example ...I even call NZ almost direct democracy as our MPs are so well connected and responsive to the roots of our society ) they are just extension of the way society in general thinks ...

[bull....]

yet they all fail to invest in NZ

[BlackPeter]

I would steer you and others to goggle and read "The Flu Vaccine is bad medicine" which demonstrates the science against flu vaccines and Tamiflu. Nothing to do with lies and conspiracy theories, don't make false assumptions.

I did not talk about Tamiflu, didn't I? Pretty sad attempt to deflect my arguments.

As well - lots of weirdo webpages coming up when using your proposed search string. Seems to be the same nutters who think the earth is flat, Trump is an honest politician and the sun circles around the earth ...

{/irony on}
Just remember - if its on the internet it must be true ...
{/irony off}

[couta1]

I did not talk about Tamiflu, didn't I? Pretty sad attempt to deflect my arguments.

As well - lots of weirdo webpages coming up when using your proposed search string. Seems to be the same nutters who think the earth is flat, Trump is an honest politician and the sun circles around the earth ...

{/irony on}
Just remember - if its on the internet it must be true ...
{/irony off} There is only one article with a forward by Jim Meehan MD and Tamiflu is just part of the main article, please go and do some proper research before spouting forth more trash can assumptions. PS-Dont bother answering to this post until you've put in a couple of hours of studying up this article and its references.

[mike2020]

An anti-vaccine doctor from Oklahoma, Dr. Jim Meehan (https://americanloons.blogspot.com/2018/03/1989-jim-meehan_31.html), wrote an online post about why he would no longer vaccinate his children. It’s pretty clear that his post is not so much a discussion of his own children (most of whom are adults) as an attempt to deter other parents from protecting their children from preventable diseases. His post is basically a set of claims trying to convince parents that vaccinating is very dangerous.
His claims are nothing new – they are strictly out of the anti-vaccine playbook. But the post has received some attention in the anti-vaccine world and was shared several thousand times, likely because many people treat an MD as an authority on the subject. So I decided to take a few minutes to explain why his claims are not good reasons to reject expert opinion and not protect children from disease.
Dr. Meehan’s claims fall into several categories (which will be discussed individually below):


The diseases we vaccinate against are not dangerous, and it’s okay, even good, to encounter them naturally.
Vaccines have toxic ingredients.
Vaccines are dangerous to children.
The science behind vaccines is corrupt because the pharmaceutical industry controls it and then corrupts it.
We should listen to him because he is a doctor and knows what he is talking about.

[mike2020]

Maybe you should read about who it is your quoting. If this is NZ then the USA is beyond hope.

[couta1]

Maybe you should read about who it is your quoting. If this is NZ then the USA is beyond hope. The article i quoted had good stats and reference articles in it which I view as reputable, and I am only referring to the flu alone here and its relationship to Covid 19 as far as vaccines are concerned.

[Blue Skies]

I feel so dismayed by the absolute thoughtlessness, ignorance & self-centerness of those who say healthy adults don't need to have a flu shot.
There are a large group of people of all ages who vaccines won't work for.
Those with suppressed immune systems through something like chemotherapy or one of the many chronic auto immune suppressed illnesses.
For a vaccine to work, a good immune system is needed to produce an antibody, so those with compromised immune systems can't produce a reaction to a vaccine.
If you disagree, wait till someone close to you, your child or yourself is on chemo & then see how you feel about those who so easily could, but argue against or don't worry about being a vector or keeping flu (or one of the many diseases we can now safely vaccinate against) out of the general population.

[couta1]

I feel so dismayed by the absolute thoughtlessness, ignorance & self-centerness of those who say healthy adults don't need to have a flu shot.
There are a large group of people of all ages who vaccines won't work for.
Those with suppressed immune systems through something like chemotherapy or one of the many chronic auto immune suppressed illnesses.
For a vaccine to work, a good immune system is needed to produce an antibody, so those with compromised immune systems can't produce a reaction to a vaccine.
If you disagree, wait till someone close to you, your child or yourself is on chemo & then see how you feel about those who so easily could, but argue against or don't worry about being a vector or keeping flu (or one of the many diseases we can now safely vaccinate against) out of the general population. I've literally worked with tens of thousands of elderly in retirement homes and in the community who take the flu shot every year and i understand why, however if you are a healthy individual even an elderly one then why put **** in your body you don't need, but people are welcome to if they so desire.

[BlackPeter]

I feel so dismayed by the absolute thoughtlessness, ignorance & self-centerness of those who say healthy adults don't need to have a flu shot.
There are a large group of people of all ages who vaccines won't work for.
Those with suppressed immune systems through something like chemotherapy or one of the many chronic auto immune suppressed illnesses.
For a vaccine to work, a good immune system is needed to produce an antibody, so those with compromised immune systems can't produce a reaction to a vaccine.
If you disagree, wait till someone close to you, your child or yourself is on chemo & then see how you feel about those who so easily could, but argue against or don't worry about being a vector or keeping flu (or one of the many diseases we can now safely vaccinate against) out of the general population.

Absolutely agree. I was in the same situation when my wife was after cancer surgery in chemo.

It is absolutely heartbreaking to watch selfish ignorant and righteous individuals for no good reason wilfully endangering the life of the people you love and others, just because they can.

Disgraceful behaviour.

Anyway - not really the right thread for it, though the header line is sort of fitting. I shall refrain from further vaccination discussion on this thread.

[Bjauck]

I feel so dismayed by the absolute thoughtlessness, ignorance & self-centerness of those who say healthy adults don't need to have a flu shot.
There are a large group of people of all ages who vaccines won't work for.
Those with suppressed immune systems through something like chemotherapy or one of the many chronic auto immune suppressed illnesses.
For a vaccine to work, a good immune system is needed to produce an antibody, so those with compromised immune systems can't produce a reaction to a vaccine.
If you disagree, wait till someone close to you, your child or yourself is on chemo & then see how you feel about those who so easily could, but argue against or don't worry about being a vector or keeping flu (or one of the many diseases we can now safely vaccinate against) out of the general population.
Thanks for that post. ..

[Bjauck]

I've literally worked with tens of thousands of elderly in retirement homes and in the community who take the flu shot every year and i understand why, however if you are a healthy individual even an elderly one then why put **** in your body you don't need, but people are welcome to if they so desire.
There is still a chance even healthy people get a flu despite a vaccination - I would never visit my (vaccinated) elderly relative, even when they moved into care, even if I had a slight sniffle.

[Gunner]

There is still a chance even healthy people get a flu despite a vaccination - I would never visit my (vaccinated) elderly relative, even when they moved into care, even if I had a slight sniffle.

Good advice. It doesn't stop all types of flus as there are too many. The most potent strains that year are vaccinated against. Covid is obviously a specific strain of flu for now.

[Timesurfer]

This statement is plainly wrong. While it is correct that the flu fatality risk for "normal healthy individuals" is low - they are (when infected) still spreading the virus around to less healthy parts of society who well may die from the flu.

Ironic that we have to take the flu shot to protect the rest of the population that is vaccinated against the flu.
If we can still get the flu once vaccinated then I am with Couta - the risk of getting something vs the risk of something going wrong protecting against that risk isn't odds I am playing.

However, the market seem delighted that those who want to take the risk will soon have that option.

[dabsman]

I miss Bali - I'm getting it as soon as I can. Bintang on the beach... oh the joy

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=dabsman;857304]I miss Bali - I'm getting it as soon as I can. Bintang on the beach... oh the joy[/QUOTE

They are thinking of banning alcohol consumption in Bali ...3 years jail term proposed ...

Do u still want to go there ? lol :D

[couta1]

[QUOTE=dabsman;857304]I miss Bali - I'm getting it as soon as I can. Bintang on the beach... oh the joy[/QUOTE

They are thinking of banning alcohol consumption in Bali ...3 years jail term proposed ...

Do u still want to go there ? lol :D I was thinking similar about South Africa, each time I go there I am very grateful to arrive back home alive.

[mike2020]

[QUOTE=dabsman;857304]I miss Bali - I'm getting it as soon as I can. Bintang on the beach... oh the joy[/QUOTE

They are thinking of banning alcohol consumption in Bali ...3 years jail term proposed ...

Do u still want to go there ? lol :D

He drinks Bintang he has no regard for his personal welfare :)

[dabsman]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;857310]

He drinks Bintang he has no regard for his personal welfare :)

I dont care I love the place... and Bintang 😊 Although I will admit Bintang is probably not the best beer in the world but it is cheap, available everywhere and abundant - the way i like my beer

[bull....]

bitcoin up nearly another k overnight reminds me of the heydays lol. wonder if we will test the last peak 20k

Bitcoin just hit $17,000 for the first time in almost 3 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/bitcoin-just-hit-17000-for-the-first-time-in-almost-3-years.html

[King1212]

Stock rotation continues

[HCR20]

If you are a normal healthy individual then just like the flu vaccine there is absolutely no reason to take this one.

Long time lurker here. Faulty and illogical reasoning tend to be a invariant rather than varient trait within individuals. In this case, what applies to vaccinations probably applies to stonks. Thanks for this post Couta1.

[Balance]

Stock rotation continues

As it should. Stock markets are supposed to look well ahead and stocks which were beaten up badly due to the pandemic & lockdowns are going to benefit hugely when the world opens up again - the stocks which survive will blossom like fruit trees pruned back hard during winter.

[Raz]

As it should. Stock markets are supposed to look well ahead and stocks which were beaten up badly due to the pandemic & lockdowns are going to benefit hugely when the world opens up again - the stocks which survive will blossom like fruit trees pruned back hard during winter.


Markets struggle with unexpected regulatory risk...climate change may well be the next black swan..

1% of people cause half of global aviation emissions – study climate change agenda defined?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/17/people-cause-global-aviation-emissions-study-covid-19

“If you want to resolve climate change and we need to redesign [aviation], then we should start at the top, where a few ‘super emitters’ contribute massively to global warming,” said Stefan Gössling at Linnaeus University in Sweden, who led the new study.

The frequent flyers identified in the study travelled about 35,000 miles (56,000km) a year, Gössling said, equivalent to three long-haul flights a year, one short-haul flight per month, or some combination of the two.


That would include many that fly from/to New Zealand and effect us as a community & AIR disproportionately...

[bull....]

More than 70 per cent of NSW’s record $107.1 billion infrastructure budget will go to road and rail projects, including two new Sydney metro trains and major highway upgrades.
Record-low interest rates offer a chance for the state to borrow big and build something for the future, NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet says

https://thebull.com.au/nsw-eyes-record-107b-infrastructure-spend/

wonder when NZ govt will relize nows the time

[Biscuit]

...... That would include many that fly from/to New Zealand and effect us as a community & AIR disproportionately...

Yes, I agree there is a big risk to New Zealand on the horizon if the aviation comes under the gun for its contribution to climate change. Aviation is an "easy target". NZ would not be the same in many ways without easy, accessible, affordable domestic and international air travel. Well, it would be the same as it has been under covid.

[Balance]

Yes, I agree there is a big risk to New Zealand on the horizon if the aviation comes under the gun for its contribution to climate change. Aviation is an "easy target". NZ would not be the same in many ways without easy, accessible, affordable domestic and international air travel. Well, it would be the same as it has been under covid.

Not a problem - I will pay my share willingly as long as other countries do the same.

Think of island states & airports like Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai and Charlotte (hub in the middle of nowhere in US) - will impact them far far more than NZ.

Then think also of the US where taking a flight is like taking a bus ride. Been there and done that - 10 cities in 2 weeks, Crisscrossing the continent.

[Hoop]

Markets struggle with unexpected regulatory risk...climate change may well be the next black swan..

1% of people cause half of global aviation emissions – study climate change agenda defined?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/17/people-cause-global-aviation-emissions-study-covid-19

“If you want to resolve climate change and we need to redesign [aviation], then we should start at the top, where a few ‘super emitters’ contribute massively to global warming,” said Stefan Gössling at Linnaeus University in Sweden, who led the new study.

The frequent flyers identified in the study travelled about 35,000 miles (56,000km) a year, Gössling said, equivalent to three long-haul flights a year, one short-haul flight per month, or some combination of the two.


That would include many that fly from/to New Zealand and effect us as a community & AIR disproportionately...
I think the next black swan could be the market valuation suddenly returning (correcting) to once again correlating with basic value fundamentals..Why should this be a totally unexpected event?..Because most investors have learn't to ignore Sharemarket Theory and the huge influx of Newbie's have no idea it even exists..

[peat]

I think the next black swan could be the market valuation suddenly returning (correcting) to once again correlating with basic value fundamentals..Why should this be a totally unexpected event?..Because most investors have learn't to ignore Sharemarket Theory and the huge influx of Newbie's have no idea it even exists..

The question is whether basic value fundamentals have changed, and if so why. The likely answer is low or no interest rates. So I would tend to think that only when interest rates rise will there be this redawning of fundamentals. There have been some murmurings in the bond market recently..... whether that is an inflection point remains to be seen

[Hoop]

The question is whether basic value fundamentals have changed, and if so why. The likely answer is low or no interest rates. So I would tend to think that only when interest rates rise will there be this redawning of fundamentals. There have been some murmurings in the bond market recently..... whether that is an inflection point remains to be seen
The murmurings are real..There has been a sharp rise in NZ Swap rates...Also been rises around the world as well.
The 3yr swaps have been hovering around close to 0% for the last 2 months..That ended on the 9th November. Have we just witnessed a charted nadir?..From 0.01% on the 6th November to 0.27% today.The last time it was this high was back in mid June. 0.3% is the technical resistance line, if it goes above that line we have a breakout. How that effects the future plans of the politically embattled RBNZ we will have to wait and see....

What is happening in the last 9 days could be a fundamental change especially if there is a breakout..How the markets reacting is this at the moment is predictably unfazed and uncaring..as to say "who cares a sh1t about fundamentals"..

I've been harping on about bubbles for the last 3 years with fundamentally extremely overvalued Equity markets...I feel like a stopped clocked permabear with a Dr Doom complex....But I do believe the central banks manipulations to preserve or increase asset value (equities, property, etc) as an answer to keep the already recessed economy from correcting (downwards) is sending monetary theory down a rabbit hole..

We have to remember the very reliable indicators were predicting a 2020 recession before covid was heard of..Basically by the year 2020 the economic cycle had matured to the point of being near to its endgame as all cycle behaviours eventually do. Covid getting in the way gave the economy a high risk of entering a Depression..so the Central Banks had no choice but to use unconventional monetary tools to rescue the economy..and the results has been unpredictably bizarre..

[Hoop]

12094
Chart mentioned in my last post...For 10 yr Govt bonds the chart looked similar until today where it suddenly fell back to 0% (Reserve Bank lending to Banks action??)

[winner69]

Wet day today ...and cold ...so reading The Great Demographic Reversal - Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival. Authors: Goodhart, Charles, Pradhan, Manoj


Inflation and higher interest rates on way back ...maybe even from next year. That’ll be fun.

Quite readable so far

[couta1]

Trump getting itchy fingers to send a few missiles Iran's way, could get interesting.

[peat]

The murmurings are real..There has been a sharp rise in NZ Swap rates...Also been rises around the world as well.
The 3yr swaps have been hovering around close to 0% for the last 2 months..That ended on the 9th November. Have we just witnessed a charted nadir?..From 0.01% on the 6th November to 0.27% today.The last time it was this high was back in mid June. 0.3% is the technical resistance line, if it goes above that line we have a breakout. How that effects the future plans of the politically embattled RBNZ we will have to wait and see....

What is happening in the last 9 days could be a fundamental change especially if there is a breakout..How the markets reacting is this at the moment is predictably unfazed and uncaring..as to say "who cares a sh1t about fundamentals"..

I've been harping on about bubbles for the last 3 years with fundamentally extremely overvalued Equity markets...I feel like a stopped clocked permabear with a Dr Doom complex....But I do believe the central banks manipulations to preserve or increase asset value (equities, property, etc) as an answer to keep the already recessed economy from correcting (downwards) is sending monetary theory down a rabbit hole..

We have to remember the very reliable indicators were predicting a 2020 recession before covid was heard of..Basically by the year 2020 the economic cycle had matured to the point of being near to its endgame as all cycle behaviours eventually do. Covid getting in the way gave the economy a high risk of entering a Depression..so the Central Banks had no choice but to use unconventional monetary tools to rescue the economy..and the results has been unpredictably bizarre..

One of the other things pointing to a top is the investment mania occurring ala Sharesies and basically everywhere ... It's as bad as the 80's with everyone talking about it and randoms banging on about it...

I think EVERYONE IS IN except the Reserve Banks now. They are just another arm of govts but very large players.

[Gunner]

One of the other things pointing to a top is the investment mania occurring ala Sharesies and basically everywhere ... It's as bad as the 80's with everyone talking about it and randoms banging on about it...

I think EVERYONE IS IN except the Reserve Banks now. They are just another arm of govts but very large players.

All sharsies is done is to make it easy and convenient to invest in shares. The ease of use is unprecedented and has invited people who would never have invested in shares otherwise. More people investing results in more people talking about it in person and social media.

Whether this is a danger sign in regards to everyone thinking theres easy money on offer and speculating is probably partially true.

[bull....]

there should be another wave of money hit the market when the vix falls below 20 meaningfully as some funds only fully invest when these conditions are met.

markets currently consolidating above resistance which is bullish if they are accepted might lead to a good xmas rally maybe 350 - 400 pts on sp500 takes us towards 4000

[King1212]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/pfizer-covid-19-shot-95-per-cent-effective-seeking-clearance-soon/ZZJVW4LMXCORBYXCWGUO6YRCQM/

[winner69]

Got this from @mark_dow this morning

[Biscuit]

Got this from @mark_dow this morning

"warning this message disappears forever..." I think if I were to make an outlandish prediction I would also want the message to imminently disappear

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-big-bounce-back-retail-sales-see-biggest-rise-in-25-years/GAOZQ5YOGWKKNLBSJP2R7R3R5I/

Paywalled

It's official, New Zealanders celebrated release from lockdown by going shopping.

There were particularly large increases in spending on household durables, building supplies and spending in department stores.

[Balance]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-stock-market-report-23-november-ftse-cac-dax-084105903.html

Another vaccine (Oxford) tested positive.

This one is easier to produce, store and distribute so will be able to be supplied globally more effectively.

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/deposit-rate-drop-returns-in-the-bank-plummet-to-new-lows/FJIVUAAU7NOFMIXIPEGAZUMJNQ/

Paywalled

Savers & investors of tens of billions of dollars in bank deposits suffering catastrophic falls in interest incomes.

Where do they go?

Well, there’s the property market and then, there’s the share market.

[Habits]

"
Where do they go?

Well, there’s the property market and then, there’s the share market."

There are decent and established companies paying 6 percent gross dividends so its a no-brainer, of course there is downside risk but minimal

[peat]

Note how the SP500 is still being held back by that shooting star.

[dobby41]

"
Where do they go?

Well, there’s the property market and then, there’s the share market."

There are decent and established companies paying 6 percent gross dividends so its a no-brainer, of course there is downside risk but minimal

It doesn't have to be just dividend either - you can sell some of the capital, bit by bit, and still keep the inflation adjusted investment value.

[sb9]

Dow tops 30,000 for the first time...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied on Tuesday, breaking above 30,000 for the first time (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/stock-market-today-live.html) amid positive vaccine news, hope for a strong economic recovery in 2021 and easing of political uncertainty as the Trump administration approved the start of the presidential transition.

[bull....]

Dow tops 30,000 for the first time...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied on Tuesday, breaking above 30,000 for the first time (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/stock-market-today-live.html) amid positive vaccine news, hope for a strong economic recovery in 2021 and easing of political uncertainty as the Trump administration approved the start of the presidential transition.

as prince once said lets party like its 1999

i see bitcoin on fire too as people ditch gold for bitcoin even paypal and square have made it easier to purchase bitcoin now fueling the rally.

on NZ see grant robinson has given the NZD a boost should be over 70c soon

New Zealand government writes to its central bank about stabilizing rising property prices
The news sent the New Zealand dollar soaring to $0.6985, its highest since mid-2018, as it reinforced expectations the central bank will resist moving toward negative interest rates next year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/nz-government-asks-central-bank-on-stabilizing-soaring-house-prices-.html

[bull....]

New Zealand government writes to its central bank about stabilizing rising property prices


In effect robinson is making his influence felt on rbnz so i guess now you need to price into your stock valuations ( gentailers etc ) that rate cycle is near an end ( swaps jumped on the news pricing in no more cuts now). as for the dollar a rising dollar trade is the way to go and how that might effect some companies and what other measures might be introduced on the property market. all in all the move may be a tightning of conditions going forward. time will tell

[Balance]

Stabilising house prices is easy if there is political will :

1. Increase supply - government embarks on a massive new housing initiative & infrastructure upgrade. Learn from countries like Singapore & China.

2. Target speculation to curb demand - increase LVRs, CGT or other tax measures and land tax.

3. Differential lending capital adequacy to assist first home buyers.

4. Get rid of the RMA ASAP.

I will be watching the above - will mean increased demand & supply for affordable housing.

Should shift tens of billions of dollars into share market.

[winner69]

......

Should shift tens of billions of dollars into share market.

Which isn't really 'productive' economy wise is it

[dobby41]

Stabilising house prices is easy if there is political will :

1. Increase supply - government embarks on a massive new housing initiative & infrastructure upgrade. Learn from countries like Singapore & China.

2. Target speculation to curb demand - increase LVRs, CGT or other tax measures and land tax.

3. Differential lending capital adequacy to assist first home buyers.

4. Get rid of the RMA ASAP.

I will be watching the above - will mean increased demand & supply for affordable housing.

Should shift tens of billions of dollars into share market.

1 - they tried that and found, as predicted, that getting them built was a bit of an issue - shortage of skilled labour.
2 - property investment isn't the same as speculation. LVRs slow some down as it removes some player but leaves well capitalised players to scoop up more.
Re CGT - I'd keep buying since leverage advantage would still trump CGT disadvantage, I'd just need more properties to make up for it.
3 - might help but shared equity would probably help more
4 - allow people to build whatever they want next door to you

Supply is the key and that will take a long time.
Paying for the increased infrastructure is a problem - councils are strapped at the moment and making purchasers pay up front makes sections far to expensive. They need to sort out the infrastructure financing model. Someone (or some entity) needs to borrow specifically for a subdivision and get the owners to pay down the debt over the life of the asset - lower up front cost hence lower house prices.

[mike2020]

Which isn't really 'productive' economy wise is it

It is if you filter it though TWR back into salaries and expenditure...

I have a read a fair bit of what's come out in the media since GR mailed the RBNZ and all I see is they want stability. Given what I have heard from people I know and what I have seen locally in the last 3 weeks, even last week, stability from here will still show further gains. They don't want to crash the housing market while Covid still rages overseas. It would be counter to what they wanted to achieve in the first place.

Banks love housing. I used to find business borrowing far more difficult and expensive. Maybe a simple reversal of costs relative to each would go a long way. We have had 15? years talking about supply/demand to no avail yet the threat of rising rates always seems to have had an effect.

[bull....]

labour looking into raising taxes?

Government muddying waters around its no new taxes policy, National Party says
http://Government muddying waters around its no new taxes policy, National Party says

we didn't say we wouldn't tinker with the details of existing taxes," he told the AM Show.

[tenzing]

"we didn't say we wouldn't tinker with the details of existing taxes," he told the AM Show.

An unfortunate reality that governments play with semantics. Sounds like another case of same but different: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3-RYMwJiWA

[bull....]

Historic month for stocks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

[Norwest]

Historic month for stocks


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Closer to home, ASX200 following suit also, up ~11.5% for November... best month for over 30 years.