Black Monday

[bull....]

taking advantage of the newbies for sure lol


Bankrupt Hertz wants to sell up to $1B in new shares after stock spikes


Hertz looks at the market and sees there is a group of irrational traders who are buying the stock, and the response to that is to seek to sell stock to these people in hopes of raising some amounts of money to fund their restructuring

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bankrupt-hertz-wants-to-sell-up-to-1-billion-in-new-shares

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reasons-why-the-stock-market-sold-on-thursday-morning-brief-101609099.html

4 reasons for the huge fall in the markets.

[bull....]

the big cap tech rally ended and the dash for trash momo rally ended all on the big sell-off this week.
the vix has sky rocketed indicating more big volatilty is coming
price action on charts is worrying looking at longer timed charts like weekly, mthly. one more big sell-off like this week on a longer term bar and ill be back in the test the lows camp again.
expect a battle from both camps after this week

[King1212]

Thanks bull for the summary. I know u always good at something. Lol

Looking forward for vilotile market .....it will churn people stomach up side down

[King1212]

Welcome a great vilotile market on Monday....

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/coronavirus-live-updates.html

[Snow Leopard]

Volatile: liable to change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse.

Note the spelling:

Volatile

[kiora]

Vilo tile sounds much more interesting but don't know what they are.
Wooden tile?
https://vilo.co.nz/

[Oberon]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billions-or-trillions-the-great-coronavirus-tradeoff-122132084.html

"The rate of infection of COVID-19 is now falling in 19 states including New York and New Jersey, about the same in eight states and rising in 23 states including Florida and Texas."

Here, we'd have been knocked back a level (or 2) if these up trends had emerged after easing restrictions. I'm not seeing anything in the news feeds so far as re-establishing lock downs in the States if infections rates spike to a critical level. Moreover, given the incubation period of ~2 weeks, I don't believe we've seen the fallout yet from the protests/riots (increases in cases at present could be attributed to their Memorial Day holiday).

I've assumed a second spike would be the catalyst for the market to take another leg down due to re-established / extended lock downs. But, I'm starting to wonder if the American attitude at this point is ... just keep on carrying on? Their response was a mess and they exited their half-baked lock downs prematurely. Now, their economy is in a state of disarray while the health crisis still has a strong foothold. I don't think anything would sway Trump from continuing the re-opening. But how will public sentiment and caution figure in if numbers continue to march upwards?

Interesting week or two ahead...

[winner69]

Vilo tile sounds much more interesting but don't know what they are.
Wooden tile?
https://vilo.co.nz/

Wooden sunglasses seem to be cool these days .....see quite a few wearing them

If they grow really big might be an IPO

[Joshuatree]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billions-or-trillions-the-great-coronavirus-tradeoff-122132084.html

"The rate of infection of COVID-19 is now falling in 19 states including New York and New Jersey, about the same in eight states and rising in 23 states including Florida and Texas."

Here, we'd have been knocked back a level (or 2) if these up trends had emerged after easing restrictions. I'm not seeing anything in the news feeds so far as re-establishing lock downs in the States if infections rates spike to a critical level. Moreover, given the incubation period of ~2 weeks, I don't believe we've seen the fallout yet from the protests/riots (increases in cases at present could be attributed to their Memorial Day holiday).

I've assumed a second spike would be the catalyst for the market to take another leg down due to re-established / extended lock downs. But, I'm starting to wonder if the American attitude at this point is ... just keep on carrying on? Their response was a mess and they exited their half-baked lock downs prematurely. Now, their economy is in a state of disarray while the health crisis still has a strong foothold. I don't think anything would sway Trump from continuing the re-opening. But how will public sentiment and caution figure in if numbers continue to march upwards?

Interesting week or two ahead...

It will be for some time imo.Im reading that the general consensus over there is we cant afford to go back into lockdown so its continuing to open up and collateral damage is smaller price to pay. And the protesting ,events on top of this , well something has to give and change has to come like stopping lethal force on minor discretions !

[Joshuatree]

Int vid by Neil Howe on the 4th turning

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yfb2zQjKWE&ab_channel=Hedgeye (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yfb2zQjKWE&ab_channel=Hedgeye)

[winner69]

Int vid by Neil Howe on the 4th turning

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yfb2zQjKWE&ab_channel=Hedgeye (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yfb2zQjKWE&ab_channel=Hedgeye)

Always worth listening to that Neil Howe

Jt ...Have you ever read The Fourth Turning

Best book ever written

[RTM]

Int vid by Neil Howe on the 4th turning

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yfb2zQjKWE&ab_channel=Hedgeye (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yfb2zQjKWE&ab_channel=Hedgeye)

Thanks JT...yes...worth watching. 2030 before things stabilize a bit. Wow. Maybe I should have retired 20 years earlier.

[Entrep]

NZDUSD is a useful indicator of things to come also

[bull....]

wall st futures in the red for the start of the week , probably on the beijing virus outbreak. bloomberg were just quoting an chinese official saying this could blow out big.

[bull....]

900 pt futures fall on the dow at the moment , might get ugly tonight

[King1212]

Looking good bull.....keep it up!

[bull....]

fed saved an ugly session on wall st again , now there going to buy individual company bonds. more zombies . the fed will not only create a dis-functional market but also a zombie economy soon that will struggle to get real growth.

FEDERAL RESERVE (https://www.cnbc.com/federal-reserve/)The Fed says it is going to start buying individual corporate bonds


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/the-fed-says-it-is-going-to-start-buying-individual-corporate-bonds.html


this be interesting to see how many newbies buy the stock after they pushed it up to such extremes

Hertz says it expects stockholders to lose all their money in filing for selling more stock
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/hertz-says-it-expects-stockholders-to-lose-all-their-money-in-filing-for-selling-more-stock.html

[RTM]

fed saved an ugly session on wall st again , now there going to buy individual company bonds. more zombies . the fed will not only create a dis-functional market but also a zombie economy soon that will struggle to get real growth.

FEDERAL RESERVE (https://www.cnbc.com/federal-reserve/)The Fed says it is going to start buying individual corporate bonds


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/the-fed-says-it-is-going-to-start-buying-individual-corporate-bonds.html


this be interesting to see how many newbies buy the stock after they pushed it up to such extremes

Hertz says it expects stockholders to lose all their money in filing for selling more stock
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/15/hertz-says-it-expects-stockholders-to-lose-all-their-money-in-filing-for-selling-more-stock.html




Maybe you could give them a call and let them know where they are going wrong Bull.

[bull....]

Maybe you could give them a call and let them know where they are going wrong Bull.

i dont need too , they probably read it on here lol

[dabsman]

How is what the fed is doing now sustainable? Yes I know they just print more money but it feels like a house of cards. I can read balance sheets and P&L's but this level of finance and economics scares me. It is like the question around the universe expending - I still dont get what is it expanding into... this all feels the same...

[Balance]

How is what the fed is doing now sustainable? Yes I know they just print more money but it feels like a house of cards. I can read balance sheets and P&L's but this level of finance and economics scares me. It is like the question around the universe expending - I still dont get what is it expanding into... this all feels the same...

INFINTE.

Just as the universe is infinite, the ability of the Fed to print money is infinite - unless the US$ loses its status the world's global trade and reserve currency.

[bull....]

INFINTE.

Just as the universe is infinite, the ability of the Fed to print money is infinite - unless the US$ loses its status the world's global trade and reserve currency.

but someone will pay for it eventually , nothing is free

[greater fool]

All sorts of views and opinions on this. I found this guy to be pretty on to it. In short, it doesn’t come without risks. But debate will continue as to how severe those risks are and how soon they will materialize. No free lunch though, that much we know: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-05/17/c_139063958.htm

Wait till the US elections are over. It will be obvious to all, that; the USA is not democratic; ignores the rule of law to do whatever they want;
capitalism USA style is buggered; and the Fed has a new trick. Debt Forgiveness. Cancelled. Gone.
Don't need to pay all those trillions back. Free money. It is different this time.

[Oberon]

but someone will pay for it eventually , nothing is free

Someone's paying for this party. I assume it won't be the fat cats lapping up the cream right now.

Is buying corporate bonds congruent with the Fed's mandate? They say they want a functional market. I wonder if 'functional market' is a synonym for perpetual bull market. Should we expect further intervention in the event of further downside? May as well scrap the veneer of simply 'shepherding' the economy - this is about Trump's election rocket ship.

Free market, fair price discovery ... what an absolute joke.

[Entrep]

Wasn't really sure where to put this, but I thought the article was a good read - https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/

[bull....]

NZX would have given back lots of yesterdays gains today if it were not for a2. people swarming back in must be the warning signal for a big dip coming lol

[Bjauck]

Australia is under a wide ranging cyber attack by “a state”. It looks like they have not been toeing the line. Undeclared war?

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-reveals-malicious-state-based-cyber-attack-hitting-several-sectors-20200619-p5545z.html

[Jaa]

Australia is under a wide ranging cyber attack by “a state”. It looks like they have not been toeing the line. Undeclared war?

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-reveals-malicious-state-based-cyber-attack-hitting-several-sectors-20200619-p5545z.html

"China understood to be a likely source of the threat."

What a bunch of thin skinned bullies.

[winner69]

Wirecard been fiddling books and now caught out

German tech darling no more ....

Wirecard says $3.3 billion of cash is missing after EY probe
https://nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12341410

[greater fool]

"China understood to be a likely source of the threat."
What a bunch of thin skinned bullies.

What a bunch of hypocrites.
They spy, push anti China propaganda, and tout their own 'hackers' and 'state security professionals'.........

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-18/inside-the-islamic-state-hack-that-crippled-the-terror-group/11792958?section=politics&nw=0

........... and cry like babies when they get ticked.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11586-Recommended-Read&p=823777&viewfull=1#post823777

[workingdad]

“Don’t fight the fed”? Hmm...

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-dont-fight-the-fed-why-investors-should-be-wary-of-market-manipulation?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1592406410

[Zaphod]

What a bunch of hypocrites.
They spy, push anti China propaganda, and tout their own 'hackers' and 'state security professionals'.........

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-18/inside-the-islamic-state-hack-that-crippled-the-terror-group/11792958?section=politics&nw=0

........... and cry like babies when they get ticked.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11586-Recommended-Read&p=823777&viewfull=1#post823777

Yes, every nation is engaged in espionage and covert attacks, always have and always will. The cyber realm does allow us to magnify those attacks, and affords a degree of anonymity as attribution in this realm is very difficult. No one likes to be caught.

[Balance]

“Don’t fight the fed”? Hmm...

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/david-rosenberg-dont-fight-the-fed-why-investors-should-be-wary-of-market-manipulation?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1592406410

If you want a reason to stay well clear of this market, here’s a good article to provide reaffirmation :

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-legend-who-called-3-stock-market-bubbles-says-this-one-is-the-real-mccoy-this-is-crazy-stuff-2020-06-17

One thing I have learnt over the decades of investing (& getting caught when markets go the wrong way) is to be continuously on guard without getting emotional.

Stocks and companies have no feelings - human beings do. Not easy but necessary.

[bull....]

the big cap tech rally ended and the dash for trash momo rally ended all on the big sell-off this week.
the vix has sky rocketed indicating more big volatilty is coming
price action on charts is worrying looking at longer timed charts like weekly, mthly. one more big sell-off like this week on a longer term bar and ill be back in the test the lows camp again.
expect a battle from both camps after this week

carrying on from the previous post , expecting the battle to heat up. We are heading in to seasonal weakness and also soon presidential election will take over. trumps turn out wasnt good , be interesting if that effects the market today

[Joshuatree]

While most of us are hoping like hell Trumpf loses the election it could be another negative on top of the economy , financial markets and covid with pressure on Biden putting taxes back up.

[peat]

expecting the battle to heat up.
totally agree with this we are at critical levels of potential resistance. We might have even had confirmation which is never an exact science unfortunately.

Re the SP500 is the invalidation at 3250 or 3400?

[bull....]

totally agree with this we are at critical levels of potential resistance. We might have even had confirmation which is never an exact science unfortunately.

Re the SP500 is the invalidation at 3250 or 3400?

i be watching 2960 area sp500 to see if support holds

[bottomfeeder]

Bit of a market route today. Fears of second wave here. Realisation that holding Covid at bay is a global effort.

[Sideshow Bob]

Bit of a market route today. Fears of second wave here. Realisation that holding Covid at bay is a global effort.

NZX50 down 0.79% currently? ASX down 0.2% currently?

[bull....]

hammertime , us futures were up 200 then just dropped 400

[bull....]

navaro saying on bloomberg trade deal is dead with china

[bull....]

futures back up looks like narvaro just wanted to make his mates some quick money

[Oberon]

If I have to read one more article spouting "market up on vaccine hopes" ...

For starters, there's no guarantee of a vaccine (although I err towards believing there will be). Even so, the EARLIEST we could conceivably see one is next year. Prof Le Gros of the Malaghan Institute here in NZ thinks 2 years. Even in the best case scenario, it's not going to help turn the tide in the here and now.

Meanwhile, the bubble continues to inflate ...

[King1212]

Braw bull...dow is green n keep getting green.....u are not doing a good job....ah yeah..yeahh yeahh....

Keep finding negative news bull...we need u. I love kung flu.......!!!

[bull....]

stimulus needs to work its way thru ... takes time but i still believe it will come

[Oberon]

Braw bull...dow is green n keep getting green.....u are not doing a good job....ah yeah..yeahh yeahh....

Keep finding negative news bull...we need u. I love kung flu.......!!!

Are you serious, or doing an impression of the euphoric investor/trader cliche? I sure hope it's the latter.

How anyone thinks this will end well is beyond me. Not necessarily today, or tomorrow, or next week or even next month. But if it walks like a duck and quacks like one ... Regardless, I shall stay firm to my position and not take any long term positions until some semblance of fundamentals become relevant again.

[bull....]

The Reserve Bank has kept its official cash rate on hold at 0.25 per cent, in line with market expectations, but said the stronger New Zealand dollar had put pressure on export earnings.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12342621


guess the reserve bank have to get used to the dollar heading back over 70c again , all the money printing in the US will weaken there dollar

[dubya]

I'm sure an awful lot of that 161 billion will be destined for the equity markets.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/premium/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504669&objectid=12342602

[King1212]

Yup..I about to post above ..heaps of money cash...pre covid... looking for place....for those that tight arshe ....don't have the subbi..... just PM me...will copy paste ..

That is how whanau works...eh....

[dubya]

Yup..I about to post above ..heaps of money cash...pre covid... looking for place....for those that tight arshe ....don't have the subbi..... just PM me...will copy paste ..

That is how whanau works...eh....

I think this is the original article (before the Herald re write it and call it 'Premium'??? :)).

https://www.axios.com/investors-pull-money-market-funds-fourth-week-39b954ac-d954-4696-aa30-f88706b9d47b.html

[King1212]

Aw braw.... support the journalism ...ah....keep the jobs around....

[bull....]

I think this is the original article (before the Herald re write it and call it 'Premium'??? :)).

https://www.axios.com/investors-pull-money-market-funds-fourth-week-39b954ac-d954-4696-aa30-f88706b9d47b.html

they do this quite often , lack of ideas obviously. maybe they can write a original story on the markets having a nice fall tonight 25k test

[peat]

Personally I see last nights bearish engulfing red candle adds further confirmation of the 8th/9th June high being a significant turning point. (SP500)
I got a sneaky short against the Nasdaq last night and got a 222 pips on one and 40 on the other am still holding small SP500 shorts.

11717

And I didnt stay up until 3:38 to get that , that was a pre set target

11718

[moka]

I think this is the original article (before the Herald re write it and call it 'Premium'??? :)).

https://www.axios.com/investors-pull-money-market-funds-fourth-week-39b954ac-d954-4696-aa30-f88706b9d47b.html
The original article was written by: Colby Smith and Eric Platt, and is © Financial Times. The Herald has to pay for it and that’s why people have to pay for premium to view it.

[bull....]

Personally I see last nights bearish engulfing red candle adds further confirmation of the 8th/9th June high being a significant turning point. (SP500)
I got a sneaky short against the Nasdaq last night and got a 222 pips on one and 40 on the other am still holding small SP500 shorts.

11717

And I didnt stay up until 3:38 to get that , that was a pre set target

11718

im still looking for a test of 2960 area , previous break out area of the channel

[peat]

im still looking for a test of 2960 area , previous break out area of the channel

Im looking for 2500

[bull....]

The support for asset prices is a powerful prop for markets. However, investors, particularly in stocks and corporate bonds, would be well advised to position themselves for virus-related vulnerabilities, and potentially a lose-lose situation later this year

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3090512/why-coronavirus-pandemic-now-viewed-positive-development-financial


I see in NZ they changing the covid testing rules back to the regime of you have to prove you have been in contact with a positive tested person again ensures NZ will join the ranks of rising covid infected countries in time also means they wont have to admit community transmission as most all cases announced will be border arrivals. the community infected people wont be able to get a test

Under new Ministry of Health testing guidelines, doctors and testing clinics, are urged to instead focus on those at highest risk.
For the past several weeks, anyone with even a sniffle had been told they can be tested for Covid-19.
But that will no longer be the case unless they fall into a high risk group or their doctor advises it

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/419774/ministry-of-health-reintroduces-high-risk-criteria-for-covid-19-testing

[peat]

I see in NZ they changing the covid testing rules back to the regime of you have to prove you have been in contact with a positive tested person again ensures NZ will join the ranks of rising covid infected countries in time also means they wont have to admit community transmission as most all cases announced will be border arrivals. the community infected people wont be able to get a test

Under new Ministry of Health testing guidelines, doctors and testing clinics, are urged to instead focus on those at highest risk.
For the past several weeks, anyone with even a sniffle had been told they can be tested for Covid-19.
But that will no longer be the case unless they fall into a high risk group or their doctor advises it

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/419774/ministry-of-health-reintroduces-high-risk-criteria-for-covid-19-testing



yeh Bull... I noticed they had tightened that instruction to the front line staff. I had a test on Monday morning (which came back negative) as I had been travelling and had a minor cold. It would be interesting to know if they would test me this week under these new rules.
This approach doesnt strike me as the right thing to do but would appear to be politically motivated unless they are running short of tests or staff etc etc but even then they should test and test to know the reality. To do anything else (unless its based on resourcing issues) strike me as taking a head in the sand stance

[dobby41]

The support for asset prices is a powerful prop for markets. However, investors, particularly in stocks and corporate bonds, would be well advised to position themselves for virus-related vulnerabilities, and potentially a lose-lose situation later this year

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3090512/why-coronavirus-pandemic-now-viewed-positive-development-financial


I see in NZ they changing the covid testing rules back to the regime of you have to prove you have been in contact with a positive tested person again ensures NZ will join the ranks of rising covid infected countries in time also means they wont have to admit community transmission as most all cases announced will be border arrivals. the community infected people wont be able to get a test

Under new Ministry of Health testing guidelines, doctors and testing clinics, are urged to instead focus on those at highest risk.
For the past several weeks, anyone with even a sniffle had been told they can be tested for Covid-19.
But that will no longer be the case unless they fall into a high risk group or their doctor advises it

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/419774/ministry-of-health-reintroduces-high-risk-criteria-for-covid-19-testing

May be not what it seems

Testing

There will still be wide testing of people with cold or flu-like symptoms as part of our ongoing community testing and surveillance for the virus.

The main clarification in the case definition that was updated yesterday means that not everyone who is tested will need to self-isolate while they are awaiting the results of their test ‐ only those who have respiratory symptoms and have had one or more of the following in the last 14 days:

• Contact with a confirmed of probable case.

• International travel.

• Direct contact with someone who has travelled overseas.

• History of working on an international aircraft or shipping vessel.

• Cleaning at international airport or maritime ports or areas frequently visited by international visitors.

The director general of health this month signalled a move to more strongly focus testing at our borders. That approach was formally announced by the Health Minister this week, including testing of asymptomatic workers involved in managed isolation and quarantine and airport and border staff. This is part of our wider surveillance measures and is expected to be operational in early July.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12343285

[bull....]

nice nice down day so far

[Raz]

nice nice down day so far

Yes decent nudge down..

[Oberon]

Oh wow. Don't tell me the "Fed brrrrrrr" narrative gave way to that inconvenient, deadly pandemic the Yanks have had on ignore for the past month...

Shouldn't be too long before the market starts pricing in a Biden victory.

[bull....]

IMO markets simply wont be able to ignore two things which I suspect are inevitable:

1) the 'second wave' which will cause an increase rate of excess deaths, and increased and/or longer enforced economic restrictions
2) the medium/long term effects of changing human behaviours on economic activity. I've banged on about it in a different thread, but evidence is mounting that its not the lock downs, but rather changing human behaviours that will have the most significant effect on economic activity.

good points many businesses or even industries may not survive the pandemic period due to changing behaviour. As for the markets the disconnect between the two is entirely blamed on the fed and its money printing which has been going on since the GFC.
probably the main reason the markets are falling now is the feds balance sheet has stopped going up recently proving the point I made on this thread quite a while ago that the market is built on quicksand of money printing and the fed will have to print for ever now to stop the market crashing.
But at the end of the day the fed will never stop a crash due to your point on human behaviour when people lose faith in the money printing only making the rich richer and the poor poorer. need balance in life does everyone

[King1212]

What recession? Went to town yesterday...was pouring n bad weather.....but wa busy as!briscoes....mall were buzzing!!! Cars were packed....

[ynot]

What recession? Went to town yesterday...was pouring n bad weather.....but wa busy as!briscoes....mall were buzzing!!! Cars were packed....

It's an illusion. Same goes for our real-estate market, saw a home sell last week at auction $230k over reserve !

[peat]

I'm quite nervous/excited that something big is going to happen soon.
Its more than a feeling (ask Boston!) and is based on those magic shapes (harmonic patterns) I see that dont work all the time (but when they do!)

I posted that on Fri in the Oceania thread but was more appropriate here


I must say I was hoping for more but I guess a couple of percent is a start. Markets never behave exactly as you expect.

[Bjauck]

It's an illusion...
Roads are as busy as they were pre-Covid here in S.Auckland - whatever that signifies!

[Balance]

Friend just sold their house in St Heliers over the weekend well above CV - early auction (brought 2 weeks forward) as a returning NZ family made a drop dead offer above reserve.

Still a severe shortage of well located homes for sale but plenty of apartments and terrace houses in the 'newer' areas according to the real estate agent.

Drive around Auckland's established areas and all the houses with 'For Sale' signs have 'Sold' plastered over them.

Read into it what you will but I believe we will not get a property crash - a correction, yes but not a crash.

[ynot]

Friend just sold their house in St Heliers over the weekend well above CV - early auction (brought 2 weeks forward) as a returning NZ family made a drop dead offer above reserve.

Still a severe shortage of well located homes for sale but plenty of apartments and terrace houses in the 'newer' areas according to the real estate agent.

Drive around Auckland's established areas and all the houses with 'For Sale' signs have 'Sold' plastered over them.

Read into it what you will but I believe we will not get a property crash - a correction, yes but not a crash.

I have no doubt we are in for a market correction.
Just that currently we don't have an equilibrium, more buyers than properties but once unemployment kicks in, different story.

[Balance]

Watch how the Asian markets react to the news today :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12344077

China believes it has developed a vaccine and will be first to be used by its soldiers.

China's military has been given the green light to use a Covid-19 vaccine candidate, after clinical trials yielded positive results.

The vaccine, developed by the military's research unit and a Chinese vaccine company called CanSino Biologics, proved it was safe and showed some efficacy, the company said on Monday.

China first announced it had been permitted to test its potential Covid-19 vaccine on humans last week.

If these trials are successful, the vaccine will then need to receive regulatory approval, after which it could be manufactured and sold.

[blackcap]

Watch how the Asian markets react to the news today :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12344077

China believes it has developed a vaccine and will be first to be used by its soldiers.

China's military has been given the green light to use a Covid-19 vaccine candidate, after clinical trials yielded positive results.

The vaccine, developed by the military's research unit and a Chinese vaccine company called CanSino Biologics, proved it was safe and showed some efficacy, the company said on Monday.

China first announced it had been permitted to test its potential Covid-19 vaccine on humans last week.

If these trials are successful, the vaccine will then need to receive regulatory approval, after which it could be manufactured and sold.

Sucks to be in the Chinese military. Looks like they might be forced quinea pigs.

[Ahgong]

Sucks to be in the Chinese military. Looks like they might be forced quinea pigs.

It's OK. Makes sense to try vaccine in healthy young men. Very low chance of serious consequences or death.

[Balance]

It's OK. Makes sense to try vaccine in healthy young men. Very low chance of serious consequences or death.

Good point and used to the case with Western soldiers too (remember the nuclear tests in Australia where soldiers were strategically placed around the parameter of the blast for 'observations').

The very low incidence of deaths in Singapore (20 out of 43,000 infected) is also supportive of your point - most of the infections there were/are of the strong and healthy migrant construction workers who tested positive but few required hospital treatment.

[Lewylewylewy]

Na, they'll likely use intentionally infected political prisoners for testing 😔

[Balance]

Na, they'll likely use intentionally infected political prisoners for testing ��

Strategically, it makes very good sense for China to get its military immunized first - a huge advantage in the months and years ahead.

Why waste it on political prisoners?

[greater fool]

What a bunch of hypocrites.
They spy, push anti China propaganda, and tout their own 'hackers' and 'state security professionals'.........

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-18/inside-the-islamic-state-hack-that-crippled-the-terror-group/11792958?section=politics&nw=0

........... and cry like babies when they get ticked.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11586-Recommended-Read&p=823777&viewfull=1#post823777

What a bunch of hypocrites: Take Two.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/offensive-capability-1-3b-for-new-cyber-spies-to-go-after-hackers-20200629-p557bk.html

[Lewylewylewy]

Strategically, it makes very good sense for China to get its military immunized first - a huge advantage in the months and years ahead.

Why waste it on political prisoners?

For testing in case anything bad happens, they can sweep it under the carpet easier and not lose resources. Probably easier to quarantine prisoners too, because you don't have to worry about living conditions. Also cheaper because if it doesn't work you can just murder them instead of nursing them back to health.

Plus it's more villainous.

Tbh, if they're applying it to their military then they've probably already tested on the prisoners.

[Balance]

For testing in case anything bad happens, they can sweep it under the carpet easier and not lose resources. Probably easier to quarantine prisoners too, because you don't have to worry about living conditions. Also cheaper because if it doesn't work you can just murder them instead of nursing them back to health.

Plus it's more villainous.

Tbh, if they're applying it to their military then they've probably already tested on the prisoners.

Sounds like what the US has been doing with its black & non-white population over the decades!

[Balance]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/made-by-history/wp/2018/06/04/american-medicine-was-built-on-the-backs-of-slaves-and-it-still-affects-how-doctors-treat-patients-today/

How the blacks were experimented upon and used in US for medical 'advances'.

[Lewylewylewy]

Yup. All very sad.

[Tomtom]

Something I read today that interests me is that Florida is running out of testing capacity and the detection rate is rising rapidly. Wasn't the point of implementing a lockdown to allow states and Federal Government to make sure the testing was in place for the first wave?

[patrick]

Those removed from living street.

[Gerald]

Some interesting graphs, pre covid: https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/10-macro-themes-to-watch-in-2020

[janner]

Some interesting graphs, pre covid: https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/macroeconomic-research/10-macro-themes-to-watch-in-2020

Absolute tosh.

Could not get past #4.

[Oberon]

Something I read today that interests me is that Florida is running out of testing capacity and the detection rate is rising rapidly. Wasn't the point of implementing a lockdown to allow states and Federal Government to make sure the testing was in place for the first wave?

Well, yes. The point of any lock down (logically) is to buy the health care system time whilst bolstering resources for testing and contact tracing. From what I gather NYC has done a fantastic job in this regard. As for other states ... well it's interesting. Here, testing and contact tracing went hand-in-hand from the outset. Granted, the tracing was easier for us given our population size and the number of infected. But the States have equivocated over contact tracing. I could be wrong but I don't believe Texas employ it.

It's tragic. They half-arsed the lock downs, 100'000+ dead, tens of millions unemployed, wrecked economy and they're comfortably on course right back to where they were in the first place!

[bull....]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says new virus in China has traits of 2009 swine flu and 1918 pandemic flu


The H1N1 swine flu and 1918 pandemic flu were both considered horrific viruses that spread across the globe

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/dr-anthony-fauci-says-new-virus-in-china-has-traits-of-2009-h1n1-and-1918-pandemic-flu.html


A strain of flu virus spreading in Chinese pigs has shown it can also infect humans, suggesting that another pathogen with pandemic potential waits in the wings behind the coronavirus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-30/swine-flu-infecting-humans-raises-fears-of-pandemic-potential?srnd=premium-asia

[Balance]

Well, yes. The point of any lock down (logically) is to buy the health care system time whilst bolstering resources for testing and contact tracing. From what I gather NYC has done a fantastic job in this regard. As for other states ... well it's interesting. Here, testing and contact tracing went hand-in-hand from the outset. Granted, the tracing was easier for us given our population size and the number of infected. But the States have equivocated over contact tracing. I could be wrong but I don't believe Texas employ it.

It's tragic. They half-arsed the lock downs, 100'000+ dead, tens of millions unemployed, wrecked economy and they're comfortably on course right back to where they were in the first place!

The US is no longer an example of anything positive when it comes to fighting a pandemic.

The mess it is in reflects the fact that the US has had no real central leadership in tackling the pandemic or any national issue since Trump took office in 2016.

So what they have are individual cities and states like NYC which did the right thing with excellent localised leadership but their successes & gains are squandered by the states which allowed the outbreak to run out of control.

This is the state of the US today really - a divided and broken nation.

[Balance]

What a bunch of hypocrites: Take Two.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/offensive-capability-1-3b-for-new-cyber-spies-to-go-after-hackers-20200629-p557bk.html

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12344448

Bunch of hypocrites, Take 3.

[Entrep]

Expecting a pump overnight in the US (jobs claims number - good or bad)

[bull....]

3155 - 60 level good resistance if it bounces

[bull....]

Record jobs gain of 4.8 million in June smashes expectations; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/jobs-report-june-2020.html

markets roaring lol they never go down at the moment for more than a day , so if the fed keeps money printing for ever now ? dow 100000 by next year? lol is that what 10 trillion more will get you? lol

​only nimble shorting , range at the moment 3155 - 2995

[NeverQuestion]

Record jobs gain of 4.8 million in June smashes expectations; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/jobs-report-june-2020.html

markets roaring lol they never go down at the moment for more than a day , so if the fed keeps money printing for ever now ? dow 100000 by next year? lol is that what 10 trillion more will get you? lol

​only nimble shorting , range at the moment 3155 - 2995

All that is going to happen with Money printing is Hyperinflation. That always results from these kind of measures. Sure, the Dow will make it to 100000 but the it will be worthless in real terms.. Just take a look at the Gold price since they started this madness..

[Balance]

Don't Fight The Fed.

Simple yet so many here indulged themselves (almost daily) needlessly in doomsday & 'missing out' agony.

[Entrep]

Lol, the rooster crows once more. Do you take everything so personally Balance?

[JBmurc]

All that is going to happen with Money printing is Hyperinflation. That always results from these kind of measures. Sure, the Dow will make it to 100000 but the it will be worthless in real terms.. Just take a look at the Gold price since they started this madness..

A billion dollars ago was only 13 hours and 12 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.....bunch of muppets right across the parliament

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stock-futures-point-modest-214106769.html

Global stock markets are starting the week with a bang after China’s influential state media stoked bullish enthusiasm. The dollar index fell for a fifth day and Treasuries dipped.

Banks, construction and insurance shares pushed the Stoxx Europe 600 Index higher, and U.K. homebuilders rallied after a report that the government is considering a temporary increase in the threshold at which buyers pay stamp duty. Copper is on the cusp of erasing this year’s losses after virus-related disruptions tightened supplies.

A front-page editorial in China’s Securities Times on Monday said that fostering a “healthy” bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever. Chinese social media exploded with searches for the term “open a stock account,” with bullish sentiment also lifting the yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 5.7%, the biggest advance since 2015.

The MSCI World Index is now at the highest level since early June, with investors putting their faith in an economic recovery powered by historic government stimulus.

[bull....]

just another central bank trying to blow the bubble bigger , be alert , enjoy the gains but be aware bubbles always end in misery.

[JBmurc]

The European Commission expects GDP to contract by 8.7% in the Eurozone this year, significantly deeper than 7.7% decline predicted in May. EU forecast now more pessimistic than BBG consensus forecast, which sees -8% contraction for Eurozone in 2020.....

Pre-market close I took a sizeable BBUS.asx position (leverage ETF short on the S&P500)

[Panda-NZ-]

Also relevant:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/germany-massive-stimulus-reverts-years-of-austerity-mindset.html

These policies have only held europe back and they could be ahead of the united states if they stopped this 'fiscal contraction' nonsense and put in place a common european bond. The world needs a strong europe.

Change the german and EU inflation target to between 2-3% rather than the high 1%'s = a permanent european boom. The US/UK are money printing like mad and they need to do it too to maintain the same currency levels ..

[Entrep]

reeeeeeeeekt https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iconic-short-seller-lansdowne-closing-main-hedge-fund-after-worst-ever-losses

[Joshuatree]

Redpill huh hahahha a cunning wave wallet that resides/hides in your stomach away from regulators, brilliant.And it manipulates your emotions because thats where they are in your stomach. Just swallow one harmless looking red pill :t_up:

[peat]

Twiggs describes the current situation .... (my bolding)

"Let's look at where the money is coming from.
Treasury debt has expanded by more than $3 trillion in the last four months (March 9 - July 9) as the government does everything in its power to cushion the economy from an unprecedented shutdown. Rescuing airlines, bailing out Boeing, emergency business loans, job preservation schemes, and supporting Fed purchases of a wide variety of financial assets to keep the plumbing of financial markets open. Every way they can, government has been flooding the market with money and some of that has found its way to the stock market. Whether through boosting stock purchases, enabling companies to raise debt or boosting consumer spending to buoy up sales, the market is flying on borrowed money.
Steep up-trends like this typically end in a blow-off. A trend is self-reinforcing if rising prices attract more investors who in turn bid up prices even further. A steady influx of new investors is required to sustain the trend, else it dies.
Similar self-reinforcing cycles are evident in nature, where they expand violently outward at an exponential rate until they run out of fuel. The fuel driving the event may differ, from dry tinder in a forest fire, warm ocean temperatures in a hurricane, consumable vegetation in a locust plague, .....or exposed population in a virus outbreak. The cycle expands, feeding on itself, until the fuel is exhausted.
A stock market blow-off is no different. The up-trend will continue for as long as rising prices are able to attract new investors. It will stop when the source of new money dries up. In this case, when Treasury tries to slow the unsustainable growth in federal debt. Then it becomes a case of devil-take-the-hindmost as a preponderance of sellers attempt to offload their stocks on a rapidly shrinking pool of buyers."

[Balance]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-2-charts-explain-why-the-stock-market-is-so-strong-while-the-economy-is-still-so-weak-2020-07-12

Reasons why stock markets are so strong when economies are so weak.

[moka]

Twiggs describes the current situation .... (my bolding)

The fuel driving the event may differ, from dry tinder in a forest fire, warm ocean temperatures in a hurricane, consumable vegetation in a locust plague, .....or exposed population in a virus outbreak. The cycle expands, feeding on itself, until the fuel is exhausted.
A stock market blow-off is no different. The up-trend will continue for as long as rising prices are able to attract new investors. It will stop when the source of new money dries up. In this case, when Treasury tries to slow the unsustainable growth in federal debt. Then it becomes a case of devil-take-the-hindmost as a preponderance of sellers attempt to offload their stocks on a rapidly shrinking pool of buyers."
The stock market is in a state of dependency - corporate welfare dependency. As soon as the Fed talks about taking away the stimulus the market drops. They need their fix, they are addicted to it, and think they cannot survive without it. Addiction is a brain disorder characterized by compulsive engagement in rewarding stimuli despite adverse consequences.
The Fed has not been able to stop feeding the share market their fix since GFC.

[blackcap]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-2-charts-explain-why-the-stock-market-is-so-strong-while-the-economy-is-still-so-weak-2020-07-12

Reasons why stock markets are so strong when economies are so weak.

Especially with low interest rates these long term cash flow valuations will hold up extremely well.

[ynot]

The stock market is in a state of dependency - corporate welfare dependency. As soon as the Fed talks about taking away the stimulus the market drops. They need their fix, they are addicted to it, and think they cannot survive without it. Addiction is a brain disorder characterized by compulsive engagement in rewarding stimuli despite adverse consequences.
The Fed has not been able to stop feeding the share market their fix since GFC.

The standout for me at the moment is gold/silver making quite the statement regardless of the feds best efforts to hold up this circus act.

[moka]

Where are the jobs going to come from, with the biggest technology companies employing relatively few people? With consumer spending being about 60% of the economy there needs to be well-paying jobs, a strong middle class to support the economy. It is another way in which the sharemarket is divorced from the real economy.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/rod-orams-june-26-column
In the S&P 500 for example, five stocks account for 20 percent of the index’s market capitalisation – with the other 495 accounting for the other 80 percent. The five – Amazon, Alphabet (parent company of Google), Apple, Facebook and Microsoft – have out-performed the market while helping to drive it up.
But four of those companies have surprisingly few employees. For example, Apple’s staff worldwide numbers only 137,000 and Microsoft’s 151,000. Yet, both have market capitalisations greater than US$1.5 tr. By comparison, back in the early 1960s when stock markets reflected the real economy, AT&T and General Motors employed nearly 1.2 million people combined.

[bull....]

US earnsing season starts of well

Citigroup (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=C) on Tuesday reported second-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations thanks in part to a massive surge in trading revenue that helped offset a slowdown in the company’s consumer banking business

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/citigroup-q2-2020-earnings.html


Despite a massive recession, JPMorgan Chase just posted record revenue — here’s how the bank did it



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/despite-recession-jpmorgan-chase-just-posted-record-revenue-heres-how-they-did-it.html


who said you cant make massive profits trading

[Balance]

More money created out of thin air on the way - lots and lots of it.

2:07 p.m. ET: Fed’s Brainard calls for monetary policy to shift ‘from stabilization to accommodation’ as pandemic progresses

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Tuesday that the central bank should begin to pivot to offering an accommodative policy framework as a fresh rise in coronavirus cases threatens the speed of the US economic recovery.

[bull....]

While retail investors continue with the risk-on attitude, El-Erian says the smart money has been raising cash in hopes of putting a “dual investment strategy” to work

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-for-investors-to-stop-buying-stocks-that-are-stunningly-decoupled-from-reality-economist-warns-2020-07-14?mod=home-page

[sb9]

Moderna shares jump as much as 16% after company says its coronavirus vaccine trial produced ‘robust’ immune responsehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-produced-robust-immune-response-in-all-patients.html

Hopefully we're a step closer to vaccine..

[tipsy]

32% of U.S. households missed their July housing paymentshttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html

[moka]

Despite a massive recession, JPMorgan Chase just posted record revenue — here’s how the bank did it


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/despite-recession-jpmorgan-chase-just-posted-record-revenue-heres-how-they-did-it.html


who said you cant make massive profits trading
JPMorgan says the pandemic has left the company exposed to billions of dollars in potential loan defaults across credit card, mortgage and auto lines. However they obviously see plenty more opportunities coming up and aren’t concerned about the defaults because if a relatively benign scenario emerges, JPMorgan will have too much capital saved and could resume stock buybacks as early as the fourth quarter, Dimon told analysts.
It’s going to be a very ugly recession for most people in the world. In the US millions will be homeless, jobless and with no health insurance. The rich will get much richer as they do in a crisis. There will be a massive transfer of wealth to the rich and accumulation by dispossession over the next few years.

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-july-15-2020-221127015.html

Mostly about the vaccines now driving the stock markets.

[Tomtom]

The British did a recent study that showed any antibodies developed are very short lived. You would likely require inoculation every few months to be effective.

[NeverQuestion]

September/October.. History shows most crashes happen around this time. I believe it is down to final quarter accounting. Where companies findout if they are still solvent.

[Panda-NZ-]

I've heard a theory that lockdowns in the US were good for the market because people were using the spare time to buy stocks on robinhood (a free platform which is similar to sharesies). Buffett stayed in cash during most of this time but it turns out the robinhood guys were spot on.

Not even the experts seem to know what is going on. still diversification always wins out.

[moka]

September/October.. History shows most crashes happen around this time. I believe it is down to final quarter accounting. Where companies findout if they are still solvent.
October/November is what Jeffrey Gundlach says for the crash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9ZS5YmONU
22 min The Fangs and I include Microsoft = Supersix. Without the super six there is no earnings growth in the US stock market. There isn’t any for the past five years. If you take them out there is nothing and there is no earnings growth in small caps. So this is all being driven by price and not by earnings. Earnings have taken a humongous hit and earnings are the same as they were in 2016 when the stock market one about a third lower than it is today.

[bull....]

October/November is what Jeffrey Gundlach says for the crash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv9ZS5YmONU
22 min The Fangs and I include Microsoft = Supersix. Without the super six there is no earnings growth in the US stock market. There isn’t any for the past five years. If you take them out there is nothing and there is no earnings growth in small caps. So this is all being driven by price and not by earnings. Earnings have taken a humongous hit and earnings are the same as they were in 2016 when the stock market one about a third lower than it is today.

just like NZ MARKET being mainly moved higher by the ATM , FPH and few others just as concentrated in a few stocks masking the mediority and poor performance of a major part of the market.

makes you wonder why anyone would bother with paying fund managers anymore when the the market goes up everyday

[bull....]

I've heard a theory that lockdowns in the US were good for the market because people were using the spare time to buy stocks on robinhood (a free platform which is similar to sharesies). Buffett stayed in cash during most of this time but it turns out the robinhood guys were spot on.

Not even the experts seem to know what is going on. still diversification always wins out.

dow will be at 40000 lol probably when we are getting 50k a day dying from the virus , rationality being the more who die the more fed money printing the more juice for the market.
even in NZ they are talking about QE being upped to 120 billion next year even without the virus like situation of the US and some of this QE money is obviously flowing into our market. imagine the virus hitting NZ big -time would mean RB would have to up the QE to a trillion lol ... that would be a boon for NZ shareholders

[bull....]

The Fed has led the world on this crazy bubble ride. When the ride finally screeches to a halt, the consequences will be far-reaching. A decade or more of stagflation awaits the world. Political turmoil and revolution might accompany it.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3093311/how-us-federal-reserve-created-financial-opioid-crisis-west

[bull....]

Where are the jobs going to come from, with the biggest technology companies employing relatively few people? With consumer spending being about 60% of the economy there needs to be well-paying jobs, a strong middle class to support the economy. It is another way in which the sharemarket is divorced from the real economy.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/rod-orams-june-26-column
In the S&P 500 for example, five stocks account for 20 percent of the index’s market capitalisation – with the other 495 accounting for the other 80 percent. The five – Amazon, Alphabet (parent company of Google), Apple, Facebook and Microsoft – have out-performed the market while helping to drive it up.
But four of those companies have surprisingly few employees. For example, Apple’s staff worldwide numbers only 137,000 and Microsoft’s 151,000. Yet, both have market capitalisations greater than US$1.5 tr. By comparison, back in the early 1960s when stock markets reflected the real economy, AT&T and General Motors employed nearly 1.2 million people combined.

bankers getting richer for sure

Bankers Make Billions From Fed Money Printing As Double-Dip Recession Fears Surge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bankers-make-billions-fed-money-printing-double-dip-recession-fears-surge

[bohemian]

bankers getting richer for sure

Bankers Make Billions From Fed Money Printing As Double-Dip Recession Fears Surge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bankers-make-billions-fed-money-printing-double-dip-recession-fears-surge

Zerohedge "apocalypse porn. It has accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions."
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

[bull....]

nasdaq on a roar lol going to the moon dragging the sp500 up with it. anyone looking for a cheap US virus play check out NBY ( i own )

NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Announces Laboratory Results Confirm Avenova Kills SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 Virus)
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200713005206/en/NovaBay-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-Laboratory-Results-Confirm-Avenova

[Panda-NZ-]

How much will trickle in to our market too lol. Good for short term nzx values I guess

[bull....]

How much will trickle in to our market too lol. Good for short term nzx values I guess

plenty , money is free in the US , if they get a dividend paying stock in NZ its money for jam.

[JBmurc]

""The quick development of a vaccine could be bad for the stock market, because it would mean an end to federal stimulus""--Analyst on CNBC

[Panda-NZ-]

I'm pleased to see the EU act quickly they are usually slow doing these things. The ability to rapidly respond will be important I think.

[bull....]

“Everybody is a genius in a bull market,” the “Shark Tank” investor (https://www.cnbc.com/shark-tank/) warned. “Everybody is making money right now because you’ve got the Fed put and that brings people in who otherwise wouldn’t participate.”
Cuban said he told his niece that the only way to keep the money you make in the stock market is by “cashing out.” He said, “Don’t get greedy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/20/mark-cuban-coronavirus-stock-comeback-similar-to-1990s-dot-com-bubble.html

[Balance]

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/eu-leaders-reach-covid-recovery-deal

EU reaches accord to spend trillions of dollars to cushion COVID-19 adverse impact.

The money just keep coming!

[Panda-NZ-]

EU reaches accord to spend trillions of dollars to cushion COVID-19 adverse impact.



Yep and it will probably work, provided they get on top of covid. Some countries there are on track for elimination.
common bonds and 2-3% inflation target will help them beat the US of A.

[bull....]

gold on a tear , mentioned months ago we would test the highs some where around 1850 - 1900 level. interesting that as gold roars and bonds are verging on a major break down to new lows , equities keep going up. Who;s right or maybe it doesnt matter anymore?


why the nasdaq outperform


Six tech stocks now make up half the value of the Nasdaq 100
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/these-six-tech-stocks-make-up-half-the-nasdaq-100s-value.html


also The S&P 500 gets 22% of its value from five of those companies

[bull....]

I was just mentioning the concentration in tech yesterday and we getting a bit of sell off today. gold pretty much hit our cycle target today at 1898 so we see what happens pretty overbrought at these levels but lets see should remain well supported and watching the bonds if we get a decisive breakdown might get some fire works in some sectors of the market.

some good places to have money parked since march (some individual stocks have done better )

Up from the March Lows
Silver Miners SIL: 178%
Brent: +174%
Gold Miners GDX: +152%
Silver: +96%
Oil Stocks XLE: +67%
Nasdaq: +64%
Copper: +51%
Dow Transports: +51%
Russell 2000: +55%
S&P 500: +49%
Gold: +28%
Bloomberg data.

[Entrep]

Up from the March Lows
Silver Miners SIL: 178%
Brent: +174%
Gold Miners GDX: +152%
Silver: +96%
Oil Stocks XLE: +67%
Nasdaq: +64%
Copper: +51%
Dow Transports: +51%
Russell 2000: +55%
S&P 500: +49%
Gold: +28%
Bloomberg data.




BTC +118%
ETH +223%

cash is trash

[bull....]

gold still going strong , blew past my 1900 level but still well overbrought so lets see

[bull....]

BTC +118%
ETH +223%

cash is trash

your right cryto's offer good returns if you get the right one , didnt mention it because a lot of posters on this site are only simple stock investors with no interest in the mega opportunities offered by the investment universe

[Balance]

your right cryto's offer good returns if you get the right one , didnt mention it because a lot of posters on this site are only simple stock investors with no interest in the mega opportunities offered by the investment universe

Simple stock investors who recognise mega scams like Bitcoin and leave the scams to the fools to play with.

This is not a thread to promote scams, much as some posters here would like to think and do.

Whatever happened with all the doom and gloom the likes of you & Entrep were posting incessantly for months anyway?

[dabsman]

gold still going strong , blew past my 1900 level but still well overbrought so lets see

I've been buying silver as it was drastically out of balance with Gold prices. Seen a nice jump the last few weeks

[Entrep]

Whatever happened with all the doom and gloom the likes of you & Entrep were posting incessantly for months anyway?

Quite simple Balance, stocks kept going up. I know your head is in the sand but really!? I'm not short stocks so I'm not concerned.

Most balanced share investors probably want to know about both sides of the debate when making their decisions. You seem to think some sort of echo chamber is preferable. Very unbalanced I have to say.

If you think me posting BTC gains alongside some other poster referring to gold is scammy then report the post and have your buddies ban me. Otherwise keep eating that crypto salt

[drcjp]

Can you get fries with crypto salt?

[bull....]

Simple stock investors who recognise mega scams like Bitcoin and leave the scams to the fools to play with.

This is not a thread to promote scams, much as some posters here would like to think and do.

Whatever happened with all the doom and gloom the likes of you & Entrep were posting incessantly for months anyway?

we posted how we saw it based on T/A , i dont generally try and pick tops or bottoms as its a fools game ( look at my call for a top in gold lol foolish at the moment ) and by the way any fool like yourself acting at the time can have a stab at bottom picking and get lucky now and then and carry on like a big baby be-rating other people who have different strategies.

[Bjauck]

I've been buying silver as it was drastically out of balance with Gold prices. Seen a nice jump the last few weeks Silver is back up to the NZD price it was in 2013.

[bull....]

I've been buying silver as it was drastically out of balance with Gold prices. Seen a nice jump the last few weeks

good call your doing well silver out performing, im gold so not quite as good, as well as some stocks alk , evn but lighting up due to overbrought levels in spot gold obviously wrong at the moment on gold

[dabsman]

good call your doing well silver out performing, im gold so not quite as good, as well as some stocks alk , evn but lighting up due to overbrought levels in spot gold obviously wrong at the moment on gold

Big jump today in silver I see

[JSwan]

Big jump today in silver I see

Crash for silver/gold mid session during Aussie, recovering now though

[bull....]

Crash for silver/gold mid session during Aussie, recovering now though


crashed from 1980 odd back to just over 1900 back mid range now , last 2 days been big ranges. still thinking toppy at the moment but lets see

[Bjauck]

crashed from 1980 odd back to just over 1900 back mid range now , last 2 days been big ranges. still thinking toppy at the moment but lets see
Lots of skittish buyers who are looking for a safe haven as they are fearful of a second wave of Covid infections.

[Balance]

Lots of skittish buyers who are looking for a safe haven as they are fearful of a second wave of Covid infections.

Actually, lots of speculative newcomers like in NZ attracted to the splashes of activity in investment markets.

And like reef fishes & the minnows attracted to said activities in the seas, the big fishes are circling and will enjoy the easy & free meals on offer.

[bull....]

fed holding meeting , low interest rates for ever must be the take away ... what else raising rates in the face of rising debt levels every where would bring everything crashing down.

[bull....]

U.S. Economy Shrinks at Record 32.9% Pace in Second Quarter


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/u-s-economy-shrinks-at-record-32-9-pace-in-second-quarter?srnd=premium-asia

looks like the stock team came out to stop the equity rout again. watching the US 10 yr verge of big breakdown i reckon and all the associated fireworks that will come from that

[sb9]

Both Amazon and Apple have blown their earnings big time and Apple announces 4 for 1 stock split. Techs are the future in this new world normal.

[bull....]

Both Amazon and Apple have blown their earnings big time and Apple announces 4 for 1 stock split. Techs are the future in this new world normal.

huge beats and not all that surprising I guess considering they are the stay at home trades due to virus. people getting home deliveries from amazon and updating there phones , laptops and ipads etc why at home

[BlackPeter]

Both Amazon and Apple have blown their earnings big time and Apple announces 4 for 1 stock split. Techs are the future in this new world normal.

That's what the Dutch people said in 1630 about tulip bulbs ...

While it is no question that some techs did well recently .... am I wondering when people will realize that they can't eat Apple's i-pads, that Google's virtuell world won't keep them warm and dry and that facebook for sure won't cure them when they are sick.

[Joshuatree]

Somewhat guilty , your honour of the pessimision of disbelief.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/here-why-stock-market-focused-reality-like-laser-beam-ken-fisher (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/here-why-stock-market-focused-reality-like-laser-beam-ken-fisher)

[sb9]

That's what the Dutch people said in 1630 about tulip bulbs ...

While it is no question that some techs did well recently .... am I wondering when people will realize that they can't eat Apple's i-pads, that Google's virtuell world won't keep them warm and dry and that facebook for sure won't cure them when they are sick.

I think you missed the point, its not about eating what they produce (like i-pads etc), rather how businesses are transacted in the new world compared to traditional ways.

These companies provide digital means to transact businesses where traditional methods fail currently due to the pandemic.

[BlackPeter]

I think you missed the point, its not about eating what they produce (like i-pads etc), rather how businesses are transacted in the new world compared to traditional ways.

These companies provide digital means to transact businesses where traditional methods fail currently due to the pandemic.

I think you missed the point :p; Despite all this digital grease potentially making lots of things easier (from worldwide communicating over rigging elections through to generating alternative facts) - none of these things satisfies humans basic needs.

Have a look at Maslow's pyramid of needs and have a hard think about how many of the lower level needs are provided by the current stock exchange darlings. Any?

The latest crisis caused a further dramatic increase of global inequality. Shares up (more money for the haves), und food supplies down (less for the have not's). We are producing at an amazing rate more have not's.

I think the current trend is likely to result in the not too far future into various revolutions (in its original meaning) - societies, stock markets, political systems will turn belly up. It is just the time of the seculum ...

Obviously - I don't know either how the future will look like, but I am pretty sure that most people will always prioritize food and shelter for themselves and their family over face book and twitter, which brings us back to Maslow and his pyramid of needs.

[sb9]

I think you missed the point :p; Despite all this digital grease potentially making lots of things easier (from worldwide communicating over rigging elections through to generating alternative facts) - none of these things satisfies humans basic needs.

Have a look at Maslow's pyramid of needs and have a hard think about how many of the lower level needs are provided by the current stock exchange darlings. Any?

The latest crisis caused a further dramatic increase of global inequality. Shares up (more money for the haves), und food supplies down (less for the have not's). We are producing at an amazing rate more have not's.

I think the current trend is likely to result in the not too far future into various revolutions (in its original meaning) - societies, stock markets, political systems will turn belly up. It is just the time of the seculum ...

Obviously - I don't know either how the future will look like, but I am pretty sure that most people will always prioritize food and shelter for themselves and their family over face book and twitter, which brings us back to Maslow and his pyramid of needs.

Let's agree to disagree on our viewpoints, I know what's worked for me and will work in future :p

[bull....]

black monday for nz coming ?

Anyone who was in Queenstown from July 1 to 4 and has since developed Covid-19 symptoms should get tested immediately, health authorities say

It has raised fears of community transmission in New Zealand

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12352575

[Sideshow Bob]

black monday for nz coming ?

Anyone who was in Queenstown from July 1 to 4 and has since developed Covid-19 symptoms should get tested immediately, health authorities say

It has raised fears of community transmission in New Zealand

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12352575

4 weeks later?? If it was there wouldn't it have spread by now??

[Entrep]

I think you missed the point :p; Despite all this digital grease potentially making lots of things easier (from worldwide communicating over rigging elections through to generating alternative facts) - none of these things satisfies humans basic needs.

Have a look at Maslow's pyramid of needs and have a hard think about how many of the lower level needs are provided by the current stock exchange darlings. Any?

The latest crisis caused a further dramatic increase of global inequality. Shares up (more money for the haves), und food supplies down (less for the have not's). We are producing at an amazing rate more have not's.

I think the current trend is likely to result in the not too far future into various revolutions (in its original meaning) - societies, stock markets, political systems will turn belly up. It is just the time of the seculum ...

Obviously - I don't know either how the future will look like, but I am pretty sure that most people will always prioritize food and shelter for themselves and their family over face book and twitter, which brings us back to Maslow and his pyramid of needs.

I hear you on this. I also think that social media is cancer and can be used to dumb down and control the masses.

[dobby41]

4 weeks later?? If it was there wouldn't it have spread by now??

You'd think so.
Sth Korea think the person contracted covid while in transit in Singapore.
NZ Health can't be 100% sure that they didn't have it when they left here so are being ultra careful (as we'd expect them to be). They have, though, classed the risk as low - but still a risk.
So if you have symptoms get a test - that's all they are saying.

[bull....]

US futures coming off , wonder if its a sell the news event

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kodak-short-sellers-getting-obliterated-154009133.html

Short sellers getting fried.

This market can be so devastating if you are on the wrong side!

[bull....]

US futures coming off , wonder if its a sell the news event

sell - off in the broader market , the 6 main nasdaq stocks keep propelling that index higher and holding up the sp500 to an extent. i imagine the whole world will be in amazon , apple etc soon

[kiora]

sell - off in the broader market , the 6 main nasdaq stocks keep propelling that index higher and holding up the sp500 to an extent. i imagine the whole world will be in amazon , apple etc soon

A virtuous feeding cycle until it isn't then the whole world caught with pants down?

[Leftfield]

A virtuous feeding cycle until it isn't then the whole world caught with pants down?

As long as you have your supply of toilet paper you'll be right...

[bull....]

A virtuous feeding cycle until it isn't then the whole world caught with pants down?

history suggests you will be right at some stage. I find interesting how traditional correlations like when gold goes up stocks go down and when bond yields drop it is a sign economic conditions are to get worse and stocks should drop etc etc possibly no longer matter? .

it could all be as simple as so much money printing everything goes up .... even etherum 50 odd % in a mth who said crypto was dead lol

[Balance]

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/106334/roger-j-kerr-questions-over-nz-economy-require-some-analysis-and-balanced-answers

A good read for those who are genuinely interested in assessing the way forward for NZ economy - will there be many black Monday’s ahead for NZX?

[moka]

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/106334/roger-j-kerr-questions-over-nz-economy-require-some-analysis-and-balanced-answers

A good read for those who are genuinely interested in assessing the way forward for NZ economy - will there be many black Monday’s ahead for NZX?
Yes, I agree a good read. The article says “the Government needs to make some decisions and announce their ongoing support programmes (for those who genuinely need it) for the economy after the wage subsidy scheme ends on 1 September.”
They have - the COVID-19 Income Relief Payment - up to 12 weeks of payments, to help with living costs after a sudden job loss, and give you time to find other work.
You may be able to apply for the Income Relief Payment if you lost your last job or self-employment from 1 March 2020 to 30 October 2020 (inclusive) because of the impacts of COVID-19.
https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/covid-19/income-relief-payment/who-can-get-it.html#null (https://www.workandincome.govt.nz/covid-19/income-relief-payment/who-can-get-it.html#null)

Good to see the government is targeting assistance and helping people and not just businesses or industry sectors. They frequently announce targeted on-going financial assistance including Covid-19 shovel ready projects and Provincial Growth Fund projects.

The article also says “the markets generally provide a clearer and more accurate picture of future conditions than economic forecasters.”
The share market is a very narrow part of the economy especially in NZ, and as we have seen in the States the share market is disconnected from the real (main street) economy.

[bull....]

gold on a tear 2000 dollars now wow and the 10 us bond yield is down again , whats spooky is that they both started there moves around the same time early june. whats up eh major safe haven buying?

[JBmurc]

gold on a tear 2000 dollars now wow and the 10 us bond yield is down again , whats spooky is that they both started there moves around the same time early june. whats up eh major safe haven buying?

The Worlds major banks + Central banks have been buying for years when Gold was crashing 2011 buying all through the flat years 2012,13,14,15 ,,, then finally we come out of the Bear market late 2015 and seen a flatline till late last year when the New Gold Bull market started ... IMHO going off the last two major Gold bull markets if you take the average percent growth from the start to the peak of the Gold bull runs ...we are only at end of the first stage(break to new all time highs) over the next several years I personal think $5000oz maybe be reached (using histrionic percent growth averages)

The global economy was flashing danger signs long before the pandemic. For one thing, many countries were clamouring to get hold of as much gold as possible. For the past decade, they have been buying new reserves and bringing it home from overseas storage to an extent never seen in modern times. Then just before the pandemic, there was a pause. What does all this mean?

Central banks added 650 tons to their reserves in 2019, the second highest shift in 50 years

https://theconversation.com/countries-went-on-a-gold-buying-spree-before-coronavirus-took-hold-heres-why-138173

[bull....]

The Worlds major banks + Central banks have been buying for years when Gold was crashing 2011 buying all through the flat years 2012,13,14,15 ,,, then finally we come out of the Bear market late 2015 and seen a flatline till late last year when the New Gold Bull market started ... IMHO going off the last two major Gold bull markets if you take the average percent growth from the start to the peak of the Gold bull runs ...we are only at end of the first stage(break to new all time highs) over the next several years I personal think $5000oz maybe be reached (using histrionic percent growth averages)

The global economy was flashing danger signs long before the pandemic. For one thing, many countries were clamouring to get hold of as much gold as possible. For the past decade, they have been buying new reserves and bringing it home from overseas storage to an extent never seen in modern times. Then just before the pandemic, there was a pause. What does all this mean?

Central banks added 650 tons to their reserves in 2019, the second highest shift in 50 years

https://theconversation.com/countries-went-on-a-gold-buying-spree-before-coronavirus-took-hold-heres-why-138173

gold in inflation adjusted terms isnt at all time highs yet , so might be room to move higher ? sytill well over brought at the moment

[JBmurc]

gold in inflation adjusted terms isnt at all time highs yet , so might be room to move higher ? sytill well over brought at the moment

$2040oz USD at present talk of 2200oz .... before major breather

[bull....]

$2040oz USD at present talk of 2200oz .... before major breather

peter shiff been saying gold $5000 for years , he must be getting excited about this rally lol . anyway rsi 87 on daily , 80 on weekly ( last peak was 83 ) so still way over brought on this indicator

[Joshuatree]

'peter shiff been saying gold $5000 for YEARS'

Thats why i ignore that sort of noise, a stopped clock.....
Now we have to start thinking about when to start taking some profits, a good problem to have ehhh:)

[JBmurc]

'peter shiff been saying gold $5000 for YEARS'

Thats why i ignore that sort of noise, a stopped clock.....
Now we have to start thinking about when to start taking some profits, a good problem to have ehhh:)

Could find many predictions. on price I also came up with much higher than present I wouldn't count out $5k USD mark

not on any direct fundamentals but using history percent wise since Gold backing of the USD was removed ...

history of some USD Gold Bull runs >>>

JAN 73 = $68oz to $674oz peak Sept 80 (7yr+ run) 891%

APL 2001 $259oz to $1900oz AUG 2011 (10yr+ run) 633%

DEC 2015 $ 1060oz to ?????? 2023-25 ?? at present we are up 92%

[bull....]

and gold up another 22 dollars , etherum stalled but bitcoin still in rally mode in correllation with golds rise. they all probably rally cause of fed money printing which i have been bleating on about fore -ever would cause side effects.

[dabsman]

and gold up another 22 dollars , etherum stalled but bitcoin still in rally mode in correllation with golds rise. they all probably rally cause of fed money printing which i have been bleating on about fore -ever would cause side effects.

I think I've doubled my money on my silver now. Close enough to. Crazy times

[bull....]

I think I've doubled my money on my silver now. Close enough to. Crazy times

well done , no end in sight yet to the run

[dabsman]

well done , no end in sight yet to the run

Wasnt really an investment decision - I just like shiny coins. Nice an addiction makes me money. All the other addictions cost me...

[bull....]

The jobs report was better than expected, but market worries gains will be fleeting without stimulus


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/the-jobs-report-was-better-than-expected-but-market-worries-gains-will-be-fleeting-without-stimulus.html


stimulus will be extended i would say , see gold finally getting the profit taking had to happen.



check out the dow jones utilities big ascending triangle in play when it breaks upside should be a massive rotation into utilities . probably flow into our utilities although i see there has been a sustained investment in the likes of vct , spk , cnu already so leaves plenty of catchup for the gentailers esp on positive smelter news . lots of speculation closure will be delayed in the newspapers

New 'final decision' on aluminium smelter in four to six weeks, says Forsyth Barr

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122380602/new-final-decision-on-aluminium-smelter-in-four-to-six-weeks-says-forsyth-barr

[peat]

The Economist finishes an article entitled 'The Trouble with TINA' by saying
"Sooner or later investors seduced by ceos’ public sweet talk—and by tina—will come to their senses. Won’t they?"

[Gerald]

Just announced - first cases of community transmission. 4 cases in one family. Auckland level 3 for 3 days.

Things getting interesting

[Joshuatree]

Auckland lockdown level 3 for 3 days starting noon tomorrow! Rest of NZ to level 2.:ohmy:

[Entrep]

Just announced - first cases of community transmission. 4 cases in one family. Auckland level 3 for 3 days.

Things getting interestingGlad you find it interesting

[Gerald]

Glad you find it interesting

I would hope you don’t find it disinteresting.

[bull....]

be interesting the hammering some stocks will get tomorrow esp retirement stocks and retailers etc

[bull....]

peter shiff been saying gold $5000 for years , he must be getting excited about this rally lol . anyway rsi 87 on daily , 80 on weekly ( last peak was 83 ) so still way over brought on this indicator

getting the big correction , down 83 dollars as we speak. still overbrought on the mthly rsi above 80 still , dailies not now

[bull....]

wall st hammered down from good gains heading to the close esp the nasdaq even the rotation into value the last few days being hit now. not good lead for NZ

[BlackPeter]

wall st hammered down from good gains heading to the close esp the nasdaq even the rotation into value the last few days being hit now. not good lead for NZ

Hammering looks different, but yeah - a wee ripple. CNN Fear & Greed Index still on 71 (pretty greedy). I suppose the coming days could be interesting in case this greed turns to fear, but I doubt very much that NZ's 4 newest cases will do the trick :):

Maybe a wee accidental war between the two empires or the start of the third wave in the US might do the trick?

[Balance]

Just like in March, got my $$$ ready to buy when the panic stricken dump stock.

Thanks, doomsday posters. 👍

Keep up your good work. 😆

[bull....]

balance you might miss out the RBNZ meeting today might give the go ahead to print more QE money . dont fight the RBNZ BALANCE

[Waltzing]

market will drop... buying opportunities and it only QE not MMT... MMT is an automatic default . I dont think the average investor understands the difference and its a big one..

6 screens up today...love the multi threading on new server chips.. and our new IOT interface binders

[Balance]

balance you might miss out the RBNZ meeting today might give the go ahead to print more QE money . dont fight the RBNZ BALANCE

Need you to up the negative doomsday tempo, bull.

Keep up the great work!

[Dlownz]

Wonder what's going yo be the buy of the day

[Peitro]

Quickly becoming apparent that this will be longer than 3 days, bargains may not be this week

[bull....]

Quickly becoming apparent that this will be longer than 3 days, bargains may not be this week

might be right ... time will tell


Covid 19 coronavirus: Second wave: Two workplaces shut, workers showing covid symptoms
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12355801

[arc]

Auckland Infected shopped in Rotorua on the weekend

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12355856

[Bjauck]

Auckland Infected shopped in Rotorua on the weekend

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12355856

Why go on a tourist trip to Rotorua when your family has symptoms of a virus - any virus?

They need to hammer the message home that if you have symptoms, stay at home. Certainly do not go on tiki tours around the place!

[Balance]

Why go on a tourist trip to Rotorua when your family has symptoms of a virus - any virus?

They need to hammer the message home that if you have symptoms, stay at home. Certainly do not go on tiki tours around the place!

The government was busy trumpeting the fact that NZ (due to Cindy’s outstanding leadership) had defeated the virus and NZ had no communal transmission remember?

It’s the winter cold and flu season so it’s understandable why they would have thought it’s but the usual winter ailments.

[winner69]

Orr loving being the big hero ...jeez $100 billion QE

Done nothing to stimulate economy so far

Probably wetting his pants with the excitment

[bull....]

QE announcement driving down bond yields in NZ

If covid spreads probably get some more mortgage holidays and auckland relief

Covid 19 coronavirus: Government contemplates targeted wage subsidy for Auckland if lockdown extends


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12355987

I see sam morgan saying NZ will go into full lockdown again soon in his opinion

Coronavirus: Nationwide lockdown 'almost certain', CovidCard decision needed now, Trade Me founder says

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122422617/coronavirus-nationwide-lockdown-almost-certain-covidcard-decision-needed-now-trade-me-founder-says


NZ market probably sell - off more if that happens unless ORR QE filters into market. biggest risk stocks retailers , tourism , retirement stocks esp eg victoria

best stocks still a2 , fph and utilities esp with orr driving bond yields down more. watch tech stocks as nasdaq rotation might be underway . temp
?


i see just now another unrelated case so looks like community spread is undderway

Covid-19 coronavirus: Otahuhu Health Centre patient tests positive


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356088

just released as we mentioned short time ago lol must be a mind reader

Reserve Bank says agreement reached on further mortgage repayment deferrals, with details expected next week

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122428217/reserve-bank-says-agreement-reached-on-further-mortgage-repayment-deferrals-with-details-expected-next-week

[Zaphod]

The government was busy trumpeting the fact that NZ (due to Cindy’s outstanding leadership) had defeated the virus and NZ had no communal transmission remember?

It’s the winter cold and flu season so it’s understandable why they would have thought it’s but the usual winter ailments.

Unfortunately they'll be vilified. Reading the comments online people are actively trying to track them down. Just what we need, an unrulily mob!

[Balance]

Unfortunately they'll be vilified. Reading the comments online people are actively trying to track them down. Just what we need, an unrulily mob!

People are rightly outraged but they should be shifting their anger towards the incompetence of MOH & the government who allowed the communal transmission to happen.

So simple to test all frontline workers but nope, they are only doing it today - after the horse has bolted.

Quarantine debacle all over again.

[nztx]

Was there an issue with NZX site late afternoon 12 August ? - many page, company & announcements links were coming up not working for around 1/2 hr to an hour

[peat]

Orr loving being the big hero ...jeez $100 billion QE

Done nothing to stimulate economy so far

Probably wetting his pants with the excitment

yeh he totally always wants to push things and make his stamp.
most banks were predicting 60m , just the same , one bank suggested he may ramp to 80 but to go full out to 100. I see a paywalled article in the herald questioning the value in his greatly expanded budget to run the place too. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12355687&ref=CE-TA-DND-BUS

[bull....]

yeh he totally always wants to push things and make his stamp.
most banks were predicting 60m , just the same , one bank suggested he may ramp to 80 but to go full out to 100. I see a paywalled article in the herald questioning the value in his greatly expanded budget to run the place too. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12355687&ref=CE-TA-DND-BUS

they were talking about orr heaps on bloomberg how he loves to jawbone the nzd down in his press coverages and how hes getting a bit of a reputation for leading actions in central bank moves.

its raining gold some say of the QE when it comes to the stockmarket

[Balance]

they were talking about orr heaps on bloomberg how he loves to jawbone the nzd down in his press coverages and how hes getting a bit of a reputation for leading actions in central bank moves.

its raining gold some say of the QE when it comes to the stockmarket

It is termed ‘measures ahead of the curve’ rather than Don Brash’s infamous ‘behind the curve’.

[BlackPeter]

i see just now another unrelated case so looks like community spread is undderway

Covid-19 coronavirus: Otahuhu Health Centre patient tests positive


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356088

just released as we mentioned short time ago lol must be a mind reader


Amazing - you are so full of your desire to spit out negativity, that you don't even bother to read the news you are spreading ...

From your link:


Both the Auckland District Health Board and Ministry of Health believe the person to be one of the four confirmed cases from last night.



Clearly not "another unrelated case".

Perhaps you should try to do less mind reading and instead read the articles you use as evidence before you cite them?

[bull....]

Amazing - you are so full of your desire to spit out negativity, that you don't even bother to read the news you are spreading ...

From your link:



Clearly not "another unrelated case".

Perhaps you should try to do less mind reading and instead read the articles you use as evidence before you cite them?

lets revisit this in 2 weeks to see if it is contained. unrelated because for every infection there is an unrelated infection passed on. based on your thinking every case is related because they all started from case 1

[BlackPeter]

lets revisit this in 2 weeks to see if it is contained. unrelated because for every infection there is an unrelated infection passed on. based on your thinking every case is related because they all started from case 1

Nobody knows the future ... however - you clearly did not read (or understand?) the article you referred to.

The "unrelated" case is - according to the article - very likely to be one of the four already identified new cases. Hardly unrelated, isn't it?

[Entrep]

Scary stuff https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356162

Can't see how level 4 or continued level 3 (plus for whole country) can be avoided

[sb9]

Scary stuff https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356162

Can't see how level 4 or continued level 3 (plus for whole country) can be avoided

Yeah, expect lockdown (3 or 4) to continue until at least for another 3 to 4 weeks at the minimum. NZ paying price for being too complacent.

[bull....]

Nobody knows the future ... however - you clearly did not read (or understand?) the article you referred to.

The "unrelated" case is - according to the article - very likely to be one of the four already identified new cases. Hardly unrelated, isn't it?

if it was related why wasnt the school put into lockdown last week when they new of the 4 infected people? , so it had to be un related now we have 100 close contacts of the school person in isolation because of the un related person

[bull....]

NZ has 13 new cases of Covid-19 linked to the South Auckland family; New cases are work mates and their family members, as well as a Mt Albert school student; Anyone who contracts Covid-19 will now go into managed isolation

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106520/nz-has-13-new-cases-covid-19-linked-south-auckland-family-new-cases-are-work-mates-and

So spreading , my guess level 3 lockdown for auckland will be extended and they just said on briefing they expect it to get worse.

so a 2 week lockdown would cost maybe 1 billion from what i read in lost gdp for auckland

[bull....]

Expect term deposit rates here to fall to Australian levels

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106517/term-deposit-rates-fall-basement-cupboards-are-increasing-bare-tax-paid-returns-can-keep


thank ORR RBNZ ... good for safe dividend paying stocks though you would hope

[JSwan]

Hope you guys are loaded up with cash to buy stocks on bargain, it's looking quite grim in the short term...

[Cadalac123]

Will be interesting if they say lockdown extension PM friday . Monday will be a great bargain day lol

[sb9]

Will be interesting if they say lockdown extension PM friday . Monday will be a great bargain day lol

I think its a given that lockdown will have to be extended and am pretty sure market is already pricing in that probability. No way we'll come out of lockdown tomorrow midnight, far too risky imo.

[Zaphod]

A L4 lockdown might result in some better bargains, but at this stage, there's no evidence to suggest that we'll see the precipitous lows of the last L4 lockdown.

[nztx]

Scary stuff https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356162

Can't see how level 4 or continued level 3 (plus for whole country) can be avoided


I dont want to fearmonger .. but it could also be quietly morphing in Rotorua area as well ; or have gone further afield.

Only time will tell -- and with the incubation lead time, or until carriers wake up to what they may have then it has had
ample time to spread further (probably exactly the same as why things have got badly out of hand in some states in OZ)

[nztx]

NZ has 13 new cases of Covid-19 linked to the South Auckland family; New cases are work mates and their family members, as well as a Mt Albert school student; Anyone who contracts Covid-19 will now go into managed isolation

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106520/nz-has-13-new-cases-covid-19-linked-south-auckland-family-new-cases-are-work-mates-and

So spreading , my guess level 3 lockdown for auckland will be extended and they just said on briefing they expect it to get worse.

so a 2 week lockdown would cost maybe 1 billion from what i read in lost gdp for auckland

It looks like it's going to take a good chomp out of Robertson's remaining $14 Bills remaining in the Slush Fund

Let's hope the real collateral damage is not more extensive or higher.. which may turn out to be

Bound also to be some ricochet effect on other areas & businesses out of this as well

[sb9]

No level 4 for now at least, that's bit soothing..

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356368



A full level 4 lockdown is "not in frame" right now despite additional cases of Covid-19, all linked to the existing Auckland cluster of 17, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today.


As Cabinet meets this afternoon to decide New Zealand's ongoing Covid response, a level 4 lockdown is not in the frame right now, Hipkins told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking.

[Balance]

No level 4 for now at least, that's bit soothing..

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356368



A full level 4 lockdown is "not in frame" right now despite additional cases of Covid-19, all linked to the existing Auckland cluster of 17, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today.


As Cabinet meets this afternoon to decide New Zealand's ongoing Covid response, a level 4 lockdown is not in the frame right now, Hipkins told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking.






Emphasis on the 'RIGHT NOW'.

Remember you are dealing with a government of all style and no substance so read and listen cynically to what is said by a cynical government.

[Balance]

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/106530/adrian-orr-how-second-covid-19-outbreak-will-affect-rbnzs-qe-programme-why-he-likes

Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr admits lower interest rates benefit asset owners the most.

He made the acknowledgement when asked by interest.co.nz whether he was concerned the monetary policy tools the RBNZ is employing to meet its inflation and employment targets are benefiting those with debt, propping up asset prices and ultimately increasing inequality.

[bull....]

yep ORR the man raining gold on us stock market people. QE infinity next year ?

[Zaphod]

Colleagues bid (unsuccessfully) on a house via a virtual auction. Never been to the house. Haven't visited the suburb for many years. Now's the time to buy apparently (low interest rates, house prices racing upward) Another is going to wait for the next Labour policy on getting into home ownership. What could possibly go wrong?

[bull....]

Will be interesting if they say lockdown extension PM friday . Monday will be a great bargain day lol

maybe we find out at 5.30 pm what the govt going to do. I see theres a covid outbreak in tokoroa now 2 cases and probables so will tokoroa go to level 3 as well?

[gains]

maybe we find out at 5.30 pm what the govt going to do. I see theres a covid outbreak in tokoroa now 2 cases and probables so will tokoroa go to level 3 as well?

It would definitely appear that tokoroa will go to level 3.. suggesting extended level 3 for Auckland and level 2 every where else... Maybe Rotorua goes up as well

[bull....]

buffets latest filing on sat morning made for interesting reading , he has started ditching all his bank stocks. brought some gold something he once said he would never do.

[MarineSalvage]

And his oil stock that I actually also went into when he did...
buffets latest filing on sat morning made for interesting reading , he has started ditching all his bank stocks. brought some gold something he once said he would never do.

[Mickey]

buffets latest filing on sat morning made for interesting reading , he has started ditching all his bank stocks. brought some gold something he once said he would never do.
But he has been pumping a fair amount into Bank of America Bull. As of 4th August, he boosted his stake to 11.9% after investing $2.1 billion over 12 consecutive trading days.

[Stranger_Danger]

buffets latest filing on sat morning made for interesting reading , he has started ditching all his bank stocks. brought some gold something he once said he would never do.

I'm still pretty positive on gold, but c'mon, that is bollocks. He's been buying Bank of America, and it is not uncommon for him to add to or trim large positions, including in banks.

Additionally, the Barrick stake is of a size that it is almost certainly in the portfolio managed by either Ted Or Todd - Warren Buffett did not buy gold within the portfolio he manages.

If Berkshire puts 15-20bil into gold, then you can take that as a genuine Buffett call, but there is no sign of that. Anyone who buys gold because "Warren Buffett did" is kidding themselves, especially in an environment where there are multiple real and good reasons to buy gold (although it is now a little popular).

[kiwico]

buffets latest filing on sat morning made for interesting reading , he has started ditching all his bank stocks. brought some gold something he once said he would never do.

He had also said he would never buy airlines but had bought a few in time for the arrival of the current coronavirus. Maybe it's gonna be different this time....?

[Scrunch]

But he has been pumping a fair amount into Bank of America Bull. As of 4th August, he boosted his stake to 11.9% after investing $2.1 billion over 12 consecutive trading days.

Agreed, and in doing so increasing the size of this stake so that Bank of America was his second largest behind Apple at about 10.85% of Berkshire's total holdings. Given that there over 20 companies listed in the US alone with a larger market cap than Bank of America, that's a huge endorsement of banks generally and BAC specifically.

The Amazon holding was only 0.73% of the overall portfolio. There doesn't look to be any holdings of Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon or Microsoft. This would appear to mean that Berkshire has a Bank of America holding around 15x larger than its cumulative holding of Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft and Alphabet.

There's a nice graphic at the top of the link below
https://www.gurufocus.com/guru/warren+buffett/stock-picks

[bull....]

I read it as buffett no longer see's banks as a value proposition.
even though he has increased his holding BAC he has reduced his overall exposure to banks significantly in his portfolio esp since march.
scrunch link provides that graphic under sector weightings

[bull....]

bluscope steel saying today glenbrook steel mill may close in time if they cant restructure it

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200817/pdf/44lk0tmn9f2kfx.pdf


Refining NZ sends out further signals Marsden Point oil refinery may close

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122467498/refining-nz-sends-out-further-signals-marsden-point-oil-refinery-may-close

[Cadalac123]

Looks like markets didn’t really care about Covid or lockdowns anymore unless it’s level 4

[moka]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=12355743&ref=nzmenewstalkZB
Dark humour surfaces in hard times.
Despite the subject matter, the Downfall scene has for years proved amazingly adaptable to very different situations about anyone in a crisis.
Its comedy is in the way the people around Hitler nervously impart bad news - his generals have failed and the war is lost - and his mixture of shaking suppressed emotion and explosion of frothing anger. He initially is in denial, then blasts others, but has to face defeat. The New York Times wrote of it: "Something in the spectacle of an autocrat falling to pieces evidently has widespread appeal".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKzCKPyL4fg

Hitler Goes Short During Bull Market

[bull....]

buffett still moves the markets

financial sector in the US down 1.55% the biggest loser on the day. largely due to buffett dumping bank stocks

https://www.cnbc.com/sectors/

and barrick gold up 10% due to buffett buying

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/barrick-golds-stock-soars-after-buffetts-berkshire-reveals-stake.html

[Zaphod]

Thankfully the property sector is booming driven up, no doubt, by those foreign buyers the general population have decried. It couldn't be ordinary New Zealanders ratcheting up the market as they try to get rich? No, definitely not. Hypocrites.

[bull....]

Thankfully the property sector is booming driven up, no doubt, by those foreign buyers the general population have decried. It couldn't be ordinary New Zealanders ratcheting up the market as they try to get rich? No, definitely not. Hypocrites.

yep and the mortgage deferral scheme to march will help prevent prices falling

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976517344/mortgage-deferral-scheme-extended-to-march

Im confidant house prices will not collapse i will be commencing a property development shortly. must say the banks seem to be looking into cash flow forecasts a lot more at the moment than usual

[bull....]

yep , so do we all now start cheering the new bull market lol. trump says next year will be the best ever for the stock market with him there , guess it could be if they print another few trillion and of course he has to be re-elected first

since i called the start of the new bull market some US markets are up double digits but maybe nearing over brought levels soon so some caution is warranted to keep one eye on this.
Our bitcoin breakout call for 10k is paying off up strongly again overnight. looks like its being used as a hedge against fiat money and is tracking gold.

[Zaphod]

yep and the mortgage deferral scheme to march will help prevent prices falling

https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/976517344/mortgage-deferral-scheme-extended-to-march

Im confidant house prices will not collapse i will be commencing a property development shortly. must say the banks seem to be looking into cash flow forecasts a lot more at the moment than usual

Interesting - thanks for that.

We've just started looking at a small commercial development which we've delayed due to the pandemic. I must admit I'm still al little more nervous than usual.

[bull....]

The jobs report was better than expected, but market worries gains will be fleeting without stimulus


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/the-jobs-report-was-better-than-expected-but-market-worries-gains-will-be-fleeting-without-stimulus.html


stimulus will be extended i would say , see gold finally getting the profit taking had to happen.



check out the dow jones utilities big ascending triangle in play when it breaks upside should be a massive rotation into utilities . probably flow into our utilities although i see there has been a sustained investment in the likes of vct , spk , cnu already so leaves plenty of catchup for the gentailers esp on positive smelter news . lots of speculation closure will be delayed in the newspapers

New 'final decision' on aluminium smelter in four to six weeks, says Forsyth Barr

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122380602/new-final-decision-on-aluminium-smelter-in-four-to-six-weeks-says-forsyth-barr

mentioned this a bit back about the DJU pattern hasnt broken yet but the utilities in NZ i mentioned have been under sustained buying , accumulation recently esp big portfolio action this week in those names as they break higher. I imagine the demand it is due to RBNZ recent comments and forward rate levels next year

[bull....]

Biggest NZ bank predicts negative interest rates



Most of New Zealand’s bank economists now expect that the official cash rate will slip below zero in April next year.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300085277/into-the-twilight-zone-we-go-biggest-bank-predicts-negative-interest-rates

get your income why you can

[bull....]

ASB has revised its forecast for the official cash rate following the second lockdown in Auckland. The lender now believes the OCR will drop to -0.5% next year.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517347/negative-ocr-on-the-way-asb-and-anz.html

[bull....]

Simplicity Offers Record Low 2.25% Mortgage, And Predicts Rates Will Go Lower
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2008/S00347/simplicity-offers-record-low-225-mortgage-and-predicts-rates-will-go-lower.htm

theres sustained buying in the dividend stocks , but not to late .... get your income why you can term deposits are going lower

[peat]

looking pretty gnarly on the SP500 futures.
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