Black Monday

[JBmurc]

RBNZ predictions:

Unemployment : 9% -12.5%

House prices : minus 9%

Interest rates : banks need to get ready & be prepared for negative interest rates

What ... but I heard the COL Budget billions spend up we will have thousands more new builders to build thousands more houses for all the newly employed environment workers ? surely the COL have the skills to invest the borrowed Billions wisely (Or was the Nat TV ad at the last election on the money with the COL rowing boat going nowhere from mindless paddling)

[nztx]

What ... but I heard the COL Budget billions spend up we will have thousands more new builders to build thousands more houses for all the newly employed environment workers ? surely the COL have the skills to invest the borrowed Billions wisely (Or was the Nat TV ad at the last election on the money with the COL rowing boat going nowhere from mindless paddling)


Just when those billions of promised trees to supply the wood were still mostly not planted yet
and still a figment of Shane Jones's bloated overactive blowhard imagination..

What will the COL do to fill the gap ?

Ban all Exports of Timber ?

Or perhaps buy back whole mega shiploads of our timber from China ? ;)

We'll have to see if it takes another 5 years to see how many of the eager budding builders know how to engage a hammer..
those who dont decide in the interim that they liked their former existence far better, far away from the whims & dreams of the Wellington incompetents inhabiting the in-gang..

Is the whole plan just another instant pie in the sky dream that will lose itself a short way down the track, like so many of the in-gang's other growing myriad of fanciful unworkable dreams that have mysteriously turned to disaster, rarely to see spotlight again .. ?

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/finance-expert-predicts-massive-bankruptcies-in-twoyear-meltdown/news-story/eb31a77fa22a108646973e06e1a0f388

Doom merchant’s prediction for the next 2 years.

[BlackPeter]

You are incorrect. Those made in China are fake knock offs and not official MAGA hats.
https://apnews.com/afs:Content:6391630154
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-hat-china/

Here is video evidence that they are being created in the USA. Can you show video evidence of official MAGA hats being created in China?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmpqYRkR9F8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE8M7cL00U4

The latter video, at the 5 minute mark addresses the argument of "Hats being made in China".

You must be kidding - the video is basically a commercial made by a Trump lackey for a Trump lackey with a vested interest in selling this stuff. If she says it, it must be true???

[jonu]

You must be kidding - the video is basically a commercial made by a Trump lackey for a Trump lackey with a vested interest in selling this stuff. If she says it, it must be true???

You haven't fallen into the "fake news" camp have you BlackPeter. You wouldn't be subscribing to Donald's tactics?

[GOAT]

You must be kidding - the video is basically a commercial made by a Trump lackey for a Trump lackey with a vested interest in selling this stuff. If she says it, it must be true???

Business Insider has a centre-left bias.. why would they be making Trump commercials? Check all their content on Trump, it's mostly negative hit pieces.

So all those people in that video who are working in the factory making MAGA hats are paid actors?

I'm still waiting for you to post some evidence of official MAGA hats being made in China.


https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/finance-expert-predicts-massive-bankruptcies-in-twoyear-meltdown/news-story/eb31a77fa22a108646973e06e1a0f388

Doom merchant’s prediction for the next 2 years.

It's hard to take them serious when many of these dooms day merchants have been calling for a crash every year.. eventually they will be right like a broken clock.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9HvukE56yM
EMohamed Al-Erian: We will have the worst recession since the Great Depression

“The fact that a central bank is willing to go selectively into high yield is revolutionary. Central banks are not supposed to take on credit and default risk, but that’s what you when you do when you buy fallen angels or buy the index and they said they intend to do both.
Game theory – it matters whether you are playing a one-round game or a multi-round game… if it turns out this is a multi-round game it is going to complicate things down the road i.e. defacto debt forgiveness. The problem is that there isn’t a better alternative, this sudden stop is so deep that we can’t just let them default because we don’t know how to default in an orderly way. Defaults have consequences and what everyone is trying to avoid is liquidity problems becoming solvency problems. In liquidity problems most mistakes are recoverable with time, in a solvency crisis capital is permanently impaired.”

[bull....]

Shovel-ready projects to be unveiled 'within weeks' - finance minister

but

But there would be “capacity constraints” because of a downturn in migrant labour that New Zealand relies on for such work because of coronavirus travel restrictions.
Some projects might also need Kiwis to be trained up to work on them — a hint that there could be a potential delay until that can happen.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121543932/shovelready-projects-to-be-unveiled-within-weeks--finance-minister

so not really much of the infrastructure spend up will happen in a hurry so discount that from the gdp lift and spend up. good things take time they say


and

ANZ economists now predict the Reserve Bank will increase the quantitative easing programme to $90 billion by August if not sooner

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/105062/anz-economists-now-predict-reserve-bank-will-increase-quantitative-easing-programme-90

must be getting ready to announce the biggest boost to jobseeker in history ( im guessing) the reserve bank can pay for it with some more money printing.

[moka]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/premium/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504669&objectid=12331571 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/premium/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504669&objectid=12331571)

Why the coming emerging markets debt crisis will be messy. Large investment funds could play hardball with developing countries that default.

The kindling for another big emerging markets debt crisis has been accumulating for years. Investor demand for higher returns has allowed smaller, lesser-developed and more vulnerable "frontier" countries to tap bond markets at a record pace in the past decade. Their debt burden has climbed from less than US$1tn in 2005 to US$3.2tn, equal to 114 per cent of GDP for frontier markets. Emerging markets as a whole owe a total of US$71tn.

Rather than the banks and governments — the primary creditors in the mammoth debt crisis that racked the developing world in the 1980s and 1990s — creditors are nowadays largely a multitude of bond funds. They are trickier to co-ordinate and corral into restructuring agreements.

Many investment funds have piled into EM bonds in recent years, and the prospect of deep and broad losses could be ruinous to some heavily-exposed funds.
"The interests we represent are those of the millions of individuals, and thousands of financial advisers and institutions who have entrusted their money to us to invest on their behalf."

"This pandemic will quickly escalate from a health crisis to a humanitarian crisis, and ultimately to a solvency crisis. Political stability will be the last domino to fall. But my biggest concern is that this crisis will be much deeper and more prolonged than people anticipate, which leaves a lot of space for another shoe to drop in the global financial crisis."

[bull....]

Chart today, hope your bounce trade still open bull

11578

just about back at top of the range , then it be time to decide if i stay long for break out of the range or sell the top of range for a chance it go back to bottom of the range. oh alwways so much to mull over

[King1212]

Stop all this bull****.....Dow is soaring 900 points n vaccine is on the way...

[bull....]

was mentioning wasnt a big fan of wage subsidy mainly because it was poorly targeted and open to abuse by businesses .. easy seems they are rorting there version of it in australia too


JobKeeper payments being 'gamed


Businesses are manipulating their cash flows to artificially suppress monthly revenue and game the federal government's $130 billion wage subsidies

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/jobkeeper-payments-being-gamed-20200518-p54tyy

[Panda-NZ-]

JobKeeper payments being 'gamed


In Australia if you work 1 hr you get the full $750 whereas here it isn't as generous here.

Own a hobby business with one employee you can get loans and grants of 100k.

Interesting to see which approach works better since Australia is much more stimulative broad and further reaching.

[Entrep]

FOMO round 2 blasting off

[Joshuatree]

"Sunny days and everything is A.O.K". It'd a sesame st kinda world right now.Wheres bert when you need him for a dose of reality:t_up:

[bull....]

FOMO round 2 blasting off

be interesting see a big part of the rally today was the vaccine announcement by moderna spurred a lot of buying

but

moderna just announced this

Moderna Announces Proposed Public Offering of Shares of Common Stock

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-proposed-public-offering-shares-common-stock-0

bit of a good news just before there capital raise hmmm sus . see if the range holds now

[Balance]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/18/stocks-today-economy-moderna/

Triple whammy positives propel US markets.

[Oberon]

Moderna vaccine trials, Powell interview and re-openings? Let's see: Moderna research is still in phase 1 and Powell warned against expensive stocks. As for the re-openings: given the incubation period of the virus, I'd say it's still too early to declare 'mission accomplished', especially considering 5 states, including Texas, have recorded a spike in cases. They're rolling the dice, hoping like hell they don't get a second wave.


Horrific economic data is shrugged off while the smallest glimmer of good news sparks a near 1000 point rally? Of course, me being rational about anything the market is doing has kept me on the sidelines since this started. Best ally for anyone on the sidelines right now is patience, IMO.

[arc]

Steadfast and resilient captain of the Titanic

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/im-leader-staying-simon-bridges-defiant-despite-nationals-horror-poll-result.html?auto=0

[BlackPeter]

I'm still waiting for you to post some evidence of official MAGA hats being made in China.


No point to wait if you don't read the links I provide ... just go back in the thread.

[GOAT]

No point to wait if you don't read the links I provide ... just go back in the thread.

The link that mentioned that the official MAGA hats are created in the USA?

[BlackPeter]

The link that mentioned that the official MAGA hats are created in the USA?

I feel sorry for you. Try again, but I assume it is genetic - not a lot one can do about this condition.

Here are some more links - just for you ...


After deciding to whack "Made In China" tags off Trump 2020 hats at the Delaware State Fair, the state Republican Party vows all its merchandise will be American-made from now on.

The red hats, made to resemble President Donald Trump's iconic Make America Great Again hats, defied Trump's focus on American-made goods. He's also battling China with tariffs and imports in a trade war.

https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/08/01/why-delaware-gop-volunteers-cut-made-china-tags-off-maga-like-hats/1887049001/



“Hats are made in China, shirts that come from overseas, but they get the labor done here, but it helps out either way,” said Granada.
https://abcnews4.com/news/local/where-is-maga-merchandise-made

[GOAT]

I feel sorry for you. Try again, but I assume it is genetic - not a lot one can do about this condition.

Here are some more links - just for you ...


https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/08/01/why-delaware-gop-volunteers-cut-made-china-tags-off-maga-like-hats/1887049001/



https://abcnews4.com/news/local/where-is-maga-merchandise-made

Again, official MAGA hats are created in the USA. Your claim has been fact checked by Snopes and The AP and proven false.

Also, you didn’t answer my other question. Were those factory workers in the video that were making MAGA hats in California paid actors? Are you going to pretend that the video doesn't exist? LOL. It would appear that you are in denial at this point, you can't accept that you were a victim of disinformation.

As for your links, they make no mention of official MAGA hats being made in China.


First link:
"We did not get them from the Trump campaign," Brady said. "We got them from our own source ... Apparently, their supplier gets their hats from China."


Second link:
"And that hat, sold through Donald Trump's official campaign website, is made in America."
"However, the official Trump gear sold on the campaign website is made in America by American workers."

[BlackPeter]

Impossible. Trump will not and can not cut ties to China.

Just ask yourself from where the liar in chief would source the red MAGA hats to distinguish his idiotic followers? They are made in China ...

Obviously - he would need as well to find quite fast new sources for clothes / car parts / medication / electronic components / cell phones and many other crucial products. Obviously - the idiot does not know that most of these things are produced in China, but his suffering country for sure would find out quite soon.


Fact check: Official 'Make America Great Again' hats are made in Louisiana and California.

Look - this is stupid. Just to refresh your memory - above is my first post related to this subject.

"Red MAGA hats .... made in China".

Plenty of evidence provided. If some people produce this cr*p as well in the US (probably cheap copies from the Chinese originals) - so be it, does not change the fact that Trump is sourcing MAGA stuff from China.

I stand to all I said - and you are working hard to confirm all the stereotypes which Trump supporters inevitably inherit from their master.

Waste of time - up onto the ignore list you go ...

[GOAT]

Look - this is stupid. Just to refresh your memory - above is my first post related to this subject.

"Red MAGA hats .... made in China".

Plenty of evidence provided. If some people produce this cr*p as well in the US (probably cheap copies from the Chinese originals) - so be it, does not change the fact that Trump is sourcing MAGA stuff from China.

I stand to all I said - and you are working hard to confirm all the stereotypes which Trump supporters inevitably inherit from their master.

Waste of time - up onto the ignore list you go ...

Trump isn't sourcing 'MAGA stuff' from China though. Again, this is a false claim.

Trump hired ACE specialties to make his campaign products in the US. They are based in Louisiana and employ Americans, they contract Cali Fame to create the official MAGA hats in California, they also employ Americans.

Is there people creating fakes in China? Sure.. but it's not Trump or his campaign.

Why don't you just admit you were wrong and move on? You got fact checked on a false claim.. let me guess the AP is fake news? https://apnews.com/afs:Content:6391630154

[blackcap]

Trump isn't sourcing 'MAGA stuff' from China though. Again, this is a false claim.

Trump hired ACE specialties to make his campaign products in the US. They are based in Louisiana and employ Americans, they contract Cali Fame to create the official MAGA hats in California, they also employ Americans.

Is there people creating fakes in China? Sure.. but it's not Trump or his campaign.

Why don't you just admit you were wrong and move on? You got fact checked on a false claim.. let me guess the AP is fake news? https://apnews.com/afs:Content:6391630154

Don't bother BP with this kind of stuff. Generally he has some very good points when it comes to stocks but he also of Trump suffers from a really bad case of Derangement Syndrome and for that you have to feel sorry for him.

[moka]

was mentioning wasnt a big fan of wage subsidy mainly because it was poorly targeted and open to abuse by businesses .. easy seems they are rorting there version of it in australia too


JobKeeper payments being 'gamed


Businesses are manipulating their cash flows to artificially suppress monthly revenue and game the federal government's $130 billion wage subsidies

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/jobkeeper-payments-being-gamed-20200518-p54tyy
Some businesses appear to have abused the wage subsidy, which is a reflection on them and their business ethics, not government policy. I agree with Grant Robertson that just because a business was making good profits or has cash reserves does not mean the business would have used that money, the owner’s money, to retain staff.

Grant Robertson said he had no regrets about the wage subsidy scheme and that it was designed to ensure people stay attached to their jobs when questioned about businesses such as manuka honey firms and beer barons accessing the wage subsidy despite rises in revenue,.
"If we hadn't done it, could we be sure that those companies would have kept people on just because they happened to be owned by a wealthy person? The answer is maybe not."
He said the scheme was designed to ensure people were kept on for the 12 weeks and that companies were being audited and asked to return the money if they were not eligible.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12330457&ref=recommendedv1

[bull....]

how about that for a dji/spx sell off 200pts/22 handles in 5 mins of the top of the ranges. cementing in the ranges now giving traders good levels to swing off.

mentioned yesterday the moderna vaccine thing looked dodgy and some of the market rallied on the news and then the announcement of stock offering after market.
well it is being said the report was dodgy now moderna down 9% . so much fake news around

anyway the gold trade still good , my chart thinggie still reads 1900 test to come , bar any unexpected happenings

[Crypto Crude]

You get em goat...
Keep the shysters honest...
:cool:cc

[Entrep]

be interesting see a big part of the rally today was the vaccine announcement by moderna spurred a lot of buying

but

moderna just announced this

Moderna Announces Proposed Public Offering of Shares of Common Stock

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-proposed-public-offering-shares-common-stock-0

bit of a good news just before there capital raise hmmm sus . see if the range holds now

There is no bigger joke than US stocks right now. Anyone buying into this madness needs to seriously rethink. The game is absolutely rigged and if you think smart money/the wealthy are going to let all the retail holders that are fomoing into this rally make bank you are seriously wrong.


Just out...

Likely the reason behind the recent Risk
Off price action...

-- Bloomberg Headlines --

*MODERNA EXTENDS DROP AMID STAT REPORT ON VACCINE EXPERTS

-- Bloomberg Story --

Stocks Drop As Vaccine Hope Questioned

By Kriti Gupta

(Bloomberg) -- Stocks dropped after reports circulated that Moderna’s vaccine study, which was partly behind Monday’s rally, did not produce enough critical data to assess its success. The S&P 500 turned negative, while the Nasdaq pared gains. The Dow extended its losses. Treasuries also caught a small bid.

[bull....]

There is no bigger joke than US stocks right now. Anyone buying into this madness needs to seriously rethink. The game is absolutely rigged and if you think smart money/the wealthy are going to let all the retail holders that are fomoing into this rally make bank you are seriously wrong.

yea its all about fomo and momo now and who can print the most. fundamental analysis is dead in this environment

[bull....]

sp500 broke out of range last night lets see if it holds and nasdaq nearly at all time new highs wow its all about tech eh. goes to show all news is good news lol


i like what labour doing with pork

Govt buying 2000 pigs a week as industry struggles with surplus

With thousands of pigs unable to go to market during the coronavirus lockdown (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus), the Government is stepping in
The meat will then be delivered to food banks by national food rescue network KiwiHarvest.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121570742/coronavirus-govt-buying-2000-pigs-a-week-as-industry-struggles-with-surplus

[bull....]

notice the volumes on the NZX are getting considerably less now we are in level 2. down from 100m at its peak per day to 45m yesterday goes to show plenty people punting on stocks in lockdown

[clip]

Updated hourly DOW chart, not sure about current ranges, just tracking sideways
11609

[bull....]

Updated hourly DOW chart, not sure about current ranges, just tracking sideways
11609

hi clip im using a 24 hr dji chart so my channel is 22900 - 24800 so on a dji it hasnt broken out yet. on your chart i would move the top line up to the high at end april as that was pivot so is resistance line now

[clip]

hi clip im using a 24 hr dji chart so my channel is 22900 - 24800 so on a dji it hasnt broken out yet. on your chart i would move the top line up to the high at end april as that was pivot so is resistance line now

Thanks mate, gradual learner here.. have made some adjustments on my side.. appreciate your views

[bull....]

heres a 24hr chart one i use of dji on a 2hrly clearly shows the range


11616


can see the clear bounces of bottom and top of ranges. if your going to use pivot points you need to confirm them with other indicators

[kiora]

"Does the world have a new vampire squid? "
https://www.ft.com/content/88e3e75e-2f43-4621-9115-a8475a45b33f

"Fink and Blackrock are criminals. The FED is paying Blackrock to buy its own etfs. Conflict of interest. END THE FED. Buy Gold and Silver. This stock BUBBLE has popped. The FED has been propping it up 100 percent since MARCH."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-says-director-nominees-elected-125917150.html

[Balance]

"Fink and Blackrock are criminals. The FED is paying Blackrock to buy its own etfs. Conflict of interest. END THE FED. Buy Gold and Silver. This stock BUBBLE has popped. The FED has been propping it up 100 percent since MARCH."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-says-director-nominees-elected-125917150.html

Told you once and told you twice - don’t fight the Fed.

Many many shorters losing their pants out there, taking on the Fed.

[kiora]

Told you once and told you twice - don’t fight the Fed.

Many many shorters losing their pants out there, taking on the Fed.

Who's shorting it?
Blackstone going long.
Buying its own ETF with cheap/free money from the Fed

[Aaron]

"Fink and Blackrock are criminals. The FED is paying Blackrock to buy its own etfs. Conflict of interest. END THE FED. Buy Gold and Silver. This stock BUBBLE has popped. The FED has been propping it up 100 percent since MARCH."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-says-director-nominees-elected-125917150.html

Blackrock has 5% of Fletchers Building and 5% of Contact Energy. I wonder how many other NZX companies they own just under 5%. With the NZX 50 capitalisation at $150billion and Blackrock managing $7 trillion it is a shame (or outrage) they are being given cheap money to take income generated in NZ, offshore. These are the companies being protected by central bank policies.

[kiora]

Blackrock has 5% of Fletchers Building and 5% of Contact Energy. I wonder how many other NZX companies they own just under 5%. With the NZX 50 capitalisation at $150billion and Blackrock managing $7 trillion it is a shame (or outrage) they are being given cheap money to take income generated in NZ, offshore. These are the companies being protected by central bank policies.

Precisely!

[Baa_Baa]

yea its all about fomo and momo now and who can print the most. fundamental analysis is dead in this environment

An interesting take on who is buying and who is selling (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-retail-traders-are-facing-catastrophic-losses) to them. Particularly the participants charts, especially who the countercyclical investors are.

[Entrep]

Imagine that the Fed hired Blackrock to buy Junk Bonds and ETFs to bail out Blackrock’s Bond portfolio and then Blackrock bought ETFs managed by Blackrock from Blackrock that have as their biggest holding, not bonds but a Blackrock money market fund

https://twitter.com/paranoidbull/status/1263983952173453319?s=21

[moka]

"Fink and Blackrock are criminals. The FED is paying Blackrock to buy its own etfs. Conflict of interest. END THE FED. Buy Gold and Silver. This stock BUBBLE has popped. The FED has been propping it up 100 percent since MARCH."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-says-director-nominees-elected-125917150.html
Corporations can get away with “crime” because although they are under the law defined as legal persons corporations cannot be jailed when they do wrong like living persons. They have the rights of a person – to own property etc, but they don’t have the responsibilities. So when there is criminal behaviour like that found during the Australian Royal Commission into Banking corporations get off lightly. They may be fined, but the extra profits they make from misconduct more than cover the fine in the unlikely event they are held accountable and fined. Rarely is a director or someone from a corporation jailed.
The National party says it will be tough on crime. However criminals are poor people, gang members and those who use physical violence, not those in corporations who swindle the public.

[moka]

More criminal behaviour at the top - Treasury is enabling the Fed to break the law.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-fed-enters-monetary-light-speed/

Per the Federal Reserve Act, the Fed can only purchase or lend against securities that have a government guarantee. So how can they purchase non-government guaranteed securities?
The simple answer is the Treasury is enabling the Fed to side-step the law, or to be more accurate, break the law.
As the Fed’s accomplice, the Treasury Department provides $75 billion of initial funding from the Exchange Stabilization Fund. The funds are deposited into a special purpose vehicle (SPV), and specifically aimed to purchase secondary market corporate bonds. Technically, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying those securities on behalf of taxpayers.
Enter the co-conspirator. The Fed, acting as an intermediary and employing asset manager BlackRock, intends to leverage that amount ten times. This allows the Fed to buy an additional $675 billion in securities and select Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12334142

NZ banks instructed to have systems ready by 1 November 2020 to implement negative interest rates.

May not happen but more likely, will imo as the economic settings re unemployment are starting to get really bad out there.

[moka]

On May 7th the Reserve bank sent this letter to Banks regarding negative interest rates (opens as a PDF.) It says that negative interest rate will not apply to retail customers.

www.rbnz.govt.nz › media › ReserveBank › Files › ump

The purpose of this letter is to outline that negative interest rate functionality in the
New Zealand banking system remains a priority from an operational and risk
management perspective.
Towards the end of 2020, we intend to assess banks’ capability to operate with zero or
negative interest rates on:
a. the Reserve Bank’s standing facilities and ESAS balances (including above credit tiers
should these be reintroduced);
b. a range of financial market securities (e.g. bank bills, bonds, interest rate swaps, and
derivatives); and
c. all products relating to non-retail customers.
Based on international evidence, interest rates on retail products have tended to be bound by zero and we do not expect banks’ retail systems and documentation to be prepared for negative interest rates.

[bull....]

An interesting take on who is buying and who is selling (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-retail-traders-are-facing-catastrophic-losses) to them. Particularly the participants charts, especially who the countercyclical investors are.

the fed

will never be able to stop printing and will never be able to raise rates again without bringing everything down. be interesting the future for sure

[Fred114]

An interesting take on who is buying and who is selling (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-retail-traders-are-facing-catastrophic-losses) to them. Particularly the participants charts, especially who the countercyclical investors are.

Meanwhile, for the bottom 90% it's just the opposite....the rich are dumping their stock to the poor.The technical term is "distribution". :eek2::eek2::eek2:

[Biscuit]

Meanwhile, for the bottom 90% it's just the opposite....the rich are dumping their stock to the poor.The technical term is "distribution". :eek2::eek2::eek2:

I think that is a hilarious article. Apart from being arrogant in the extreme, the authors cannot even read a graph and misinterpret the data to support their bogus theory. It's fairly obvious from the data that in the past the small guys got their timing better than the "rich".

[bull....]

heres a 24hr chart one i use of dji on a 2hrly clearly shows the range


11616


can see the clear bounces of bottom and top of ranges. if your going to use pivot points you need to confirm them with other indicators

breaking up from range on the dji and sp500 is also. sp500 also reclaimed just above 200 day moving average usually bullish longer term but give it a few days too see if it can sustain the move.
money printing is sure doing a good job of pushing stocks higher , stocks trade at forward earnings more expensive than most periods in history now but i guess that doesnt matter as long as the presses are still going strong. remember its momo that matters at the moment not fundamental analysis.

NZD breaking higher from range to over 62c now and what better way to trade it than fph rising strongly in trend remember its momo not fundamentals that matter lol

[Snow Leopard]

.... remember its momo not fundamentals that matter lol

bull.... bull....

While Momo is a wonderful Asian food,
but then all Asian food is wonderful,
fundamentals always matter.

[bull....]

mentioned earlier RBNZ had declared war on term deposits for the benefit of mortgage holders and the banks are party to this now dropping mortgage rates and now taking a sledge hammer to term deposits

ANZ takes term deposit rate offers down to levels never seen before, with almost no offers above 2%

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/105205/anz-takes-term-deposit-rate-offers-down-levels-never-seen-almost-no-offers


so expecting as we head to negative rates in the next year mortgages should be heaps cheaper and term deposits heaps lower.
tough environment for people with money near zero real return on term deposits now and only a few certain companies paying reliable dividends going forward will make it hard to get a return. but hay thats the downside of money printing to high heaven anyway borrowing shi..loads at low rates upfront to fund the next 40 years of life style sounds appealing too me now if ive still got a job of course and knowing now the RBNZ like the fed thru money printing will never allow stocks or the property market too fall makes me feel good too plan the dAY

[Leftfield]

mentioned earlier RBNZ had declared war on term deposits for the benefit of mortgage holders and the banks are party to this now dropping mortgage rates and now taking a sledge hammer to term deposits...

..... but hay thats the downside of money printing to high heaven anyway borrowing shi..loads at low rates upfront to fund the next 40 years of life style sounds appealing too me now if ive still got a job of course and knowing now the RBNZ like the fed thru money printing will never allow stocks or the property market too fall makes me feel good too plan the dAY

Property and shares/kiwisaver funds increasingly seen as the 'safe havens'......... got to be good for the share market (at least in the short term.)

[Balance]

The doomsday merchants licking their wounds and staring enviously at the gains made in the market.

Blaming the Fed & Central Banks for printing money to avert a depression and severe market crash!

Isn’t the sharemarket a fun place to observe human behaviour? 🤔

[dobby41]

Isn’t the sharemarket a fun place to observe human behaviour? ��

It's done my head in trying to work it out so I have given up.
Have gone with the flow and stopped trying to use logic.

[bull....]

It's done my head in trying to work it out so I have given up.
Have gone with the flow and stopped trying to use logic.

thats why its momo not fundamentals. US markets being driven higher mainly by top 5 or 6 tech stocks even in NZ indexes being driven up by mainly atm and fph

[kiora]

The doomsday merchants licking their wounds and staring enviously at the gains made in the market.

Blaming the Fed & Central Banks for printing money to avert a depression and severe market crash!

Isn’t the sharemarket a fun place to observe human behaviour? 🤔

And sharetrader is even better than the share market for entertainment :)

[BlackPeter]

bull.... bull....

While Momo is a wonderful Asian food,
but then all Asian food is wonderful,
fundamentals always matter.

A lot of it is, that's true, but maybe you should smell Taiwanese stinky tofu before you repeat above statement ;):

[martinchnz1]

All seems like part of the volatility we see these days anyway.

If you're so sure of rising markets have you doubled down, mortgaged to the hilt and thrown everything in the market? Or are you only sitting with a toe in the water and yelling at the people on the shore saying the water is fine.

I certainly couldn't dream of knowing what will happen, and the extreme views people are so sure of on here make for about as much sense as political sided arguments.
So much conviction and so little evidence.

[Traderx]

The doomsday merchants licking their wounds and staring enviously at the gains made in the market.

Blaming the Fed & Central Banks for printing money to avert a depression and severe market crash!

Isn’t the sharemarket a fun place to observe human behaviour? 🤔

This is me! Wish I'd stuck to my asset allocation, I had congratulated myself for getting out at the top (read up lots on COVID early). Never got back in. Now wondering if should, but convincing myself that my buying will mark the top. Money printing and TINA to the fore which I greatly underestimated. My kiwisaver now largely consists of great wads of govt bonds earning between about 1% to -0.5% nominal with a duration of c.5 years. Horrible! Negative real returns likely. It is a real conumdurm. I have to say the most attractive asset class right now looks like Christchurch family homes, which look to be cashflow positive on the back of 5 year BNZ 2.99% pa, my better half not keen though. Hmm

[Biscuit]

This is me! Wish I'd stuck to my asset allocation, I had congratulated myself for getting out at the top (read up lots on COVID early). Never got back in. Now wondering if should, but convincing myself that my buying will mark the top. Money printing and TINA to the fore which I greatly underestimated. My kiwisaver now largely consists of great wads of govt bonds earning between about 1% to -0.5% nominal with a duration of c.5 years. Horrible! Negative real returns likely. It is a real conumdurm. I have to say the most attractive asset class right now looks like Christchurch family homes, which look to be cashflow positive on the back of 5 year BNZ 2.99% pa, my better half not keen though. Hmm

There is risk both ways in investing. In hindsight, I could have made way more money over my life if I had just gone all out borrowing to the hilt and buying assets. But I'd never have slept at night coz of the risk of being wiped out. In my view, balanced investing is never being fully committed either way and adjusting the commitment to any asset depending on what you perceive to be the risks - knowing that you are never likely to be right. Depends if you are an investor or a gambler. As an investor, if I was all out right now, or at anytime (which I never would be), I would be looking to get back in. But for gamblers, they might want to be more discerning about their timing.

[Balance]

Agreed - it’s all about being able to sleep well at nights.

No point over-committing and then, making mistakes due to emotional stress when the markets gyrate about.

[kiora]

All seems like part of the volatility we see these days anyway.

If you're so sure of rising markets have you doubled down, mortgaged to the hilt and thrown everything in the market? Or are you only sitting with a toe in the water and yelling at the people on the shore saying the water is fine.

I certainly couldn't dream of knowing what will happen, and the extreme views people are so sure of on here make for about as much sense as political sided arguments.
So much conviction and so little evidence.

History repeats again,again and again.What evidence are you looking for?

[bull....]

even big funds cant make sense of thngs

The apostles of "value investing" have called the top of the COVID-19 equity rally (https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p54trn). The closely watched GMO fund (https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p54s54) has been liquidating its holdings on US and European sharemarkets and buying hedges at a breakneck pace over recent days, warning clients that the explosive surge in prices since late March has decoupled from fundamentals and is becoming treacherous. "The huge reversal does not make any sense," it said

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/markets-will-clear-the-froth-warn-value-investing-apostles-20200527-p54ww8

momo lol

[bull....]

Japan considers fresh $1.1 trillion stimulus to combat economic impact of coronavirus pandemic

The stimulus, which will be funded partly by a second extra budget, will be on top of a $1.1 trillion package already rolled out last month


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/japan-weighs-fresh-stimulus-to-combat-pandemic-pain.html


whats another trillion lol i also hear ECB looking at more too. the presses are running hot thats for sure lots of zombie companies to keep alive

[bull....]

bnz slashing term deposits too

BNZ makes further cuts to both home loan and term deposit rates, and resets its Standard mortgage rates lower across the board

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/105245/bnz-makes-further-cuts-both-home-loan-and-term-deposit-rates-and-resets-its

[okay]

I wonder when will be the saturation point that even the most greedy of the market participants says bugger off, I can't stand any more of this sugar, even wafer slim. I expect this will be when the corrupt fed starts buying shares.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRpt4a6H99c

[Joshuatree]

LOL thanks for the wafer thin. Tell you what im sleeping real easy being largely out of the mkt since feb.I have a list of stocks to buy back into during the carnage im sure is coming. looks like i may get a chance soon to start looking at BBOZ again too.

[Snow Leopard]

A lot of it is, that's true, but maybe you should smell Taiwanese stinky tofu before you repeat above statement ;):

Stoopid remark :p

I have been to Taiwan a few times.
I have smelt stinky tofu.
I have eaten stinky tofu.
I like stinky tofu.

Fried spiders in Cambodia as been as bad as it gets, but once you get over the thought of putting a big black spider in your mouth and actually taste it then you are reaching for seconds.

SO how are the momo doing ?

[Baa_Baa]

Stoopid remark :p

I have been to Taiwan a few times.
I have smelt stinky tofu.
I have eaten stinky tofu.
I like stinky tofu.

Fried spiders in Cambodia as been as bad as it gets, but once you get over the thought of putting a big black spider in your mouth and actually taste it then you are reaching for seconds.

SO how are the momo doing ?

Eeeeeew. I don’t feel very well after that. 🤢

[BIRMANBOY]

Was that reaching for seconds or retching for minutes?:eek2:

Stoopid remark :p

I have been to Taiwan a few times.
I have smelt stinky tofu.
I have eaten stinky tofu.
I like stinky tofu.

Fried spiders in Cambodia as been as bad as it gets, but once you get over the thought of putting a big black spider in your mouth and actually taste it then you are reaching for seconds.

SO how are the momo doing ?

[bull....]

the DJI breakout working so far ... forget about dcf and fundamentals ( garbage analysis at the moment) its all about go momo in money printing times , sp500 still struggling around 200d ma



Cramer says the stock market is too optimistic about an economic recovery — ‘it’s just not going to work like that

It’s too ‘happy days are here again


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/the-market-is-too-optimistic-about-the-recovery-cramer-says-its-just-not-going-to-work-like-that.html


Orr saying he is open to more money printing in NZ

heres the key part in the story for when they will start printing to pay govt bills

You could shift, at an extreme, to something called money financing, where the Government says ‘I want to spend 100, credit our account with 100’ and that's just us creating money,” he said.

But the current legislation governing the Bank would prohibit Orr from moving in this direction. Finance Minister Grant Robertson would have to draft and pass legislation before the Bank could move to money financing.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300022305/adrian-orr-open-to-creating-even-more-money-but-wont-move-on-bank-capital-changes

[Snow Leopard]

Just for the sake of completing my education & assuming you are not fixating on Steamed Dumplings ( like I am) but what the forum is momo short for?

[bull....]

Just for the sake of completing my education & assuming you are not fixating on Steamed Dumplings ( like I am) but what the forum is momo short for?

momentum investing which is based on trend in prices. hence why in a money printing environment fundamentals mean little as the wall of liquidity flooding markets drives prices. even on junk

[King1212]

Crazy...market is back pre covid high....what next bull?

[bull....]

Crazy...market is back pre covid high....what next bull?

if i new every move i wouldnt be posting on share trader lol i would be on my island surrounded by beauties anyway dji up nearly 500 and to the 500 yesterday from the breakout 1000 pt move yahoo

[King1212]

Come on bull...u are not doing your job.... where are all the rampings and the bear news...lol

[moka]

Lots of black Mondays coming according to the Reserve Bank.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121635138/insurers-and-nonbank-deposit-takers-reserve-banks-biggest-worry
Insurers and non-bank deposit takers, Reserve Bank's biggest worry. But despite banks' good position, the Reserve Bank forecast the resilience of the banking system would be "tested in the coming months". Even accounting for an expected recovery in the second half of the year, the projected annual change in GDP — from about 2 per cent growth before the crisis to an 8 per cent drop afterwards — would be the largest in at least 160 years.

[Balance]

Lots of black Mondays coming according to the Reserve Bank.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121635138/insurers-and-nonbank-deposit-takers-reserve-banks-biggest-worry
Insurers and non-bank deposit takers, Reserve Bank's biggest worry. But despite banks' good position, the Reserve Bank forecast the resilience of the banking system would be "tested in the coming months". Even accounting for an expected recovery in the second half of the year, the projected annual change in GDP — from about 2 per cent growth before the crisis to an 8 per cent drop afterwards — would be the largest in at least 160 years.

No surprises there.

Cindy & her government have another $20 billion at their disposal to throw at the economy in the next 4 months - just in time for the election.

So expect things to be okay, then watch the real problems to emerge after the election.

[bull....]

some good fomo coming in on the futures now for us trading tonight dji up another 200 already

[clip]

Well we've now broken through the 61.8% fib retracement since the low on march 23rd. For the dji anyway.

[bull....]

Well we've now broken through the 61.8% fib retracement since the low on march 23rd. For the dji anyway.

yep , so do we all now start cheering the new bull market lol. trump says next year will be the best ever for the stock market with him there , guess it could be if they print another few trillion and of course he has to be re-elected first

[iroh]

Lots of black Mondays coming according to the Reserve Bank.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121635138/insurers-and-nonbank-deposit-takers-reserve-banks-biggest-worry
Insurers and non-bank deposit takers, Reserve Bank's biggest worry. But despite banks' good position, the Reserve Bank forecast the resilience of the banking system would be "tested in the coming months". Even accounting for an expected recovery in the second half of the year, the projected annual change in GDP — from about 2 per cent growth before the crisis to an 8 per cent drop afterwards — would be the largest in at least 160 years.

All of this is if the coronavirus prompts another economic lockdown... And that's only likely to happen now if we start importing cases from overseas again and the government is pretty committed to not letting that happen.

[Panda-NZ-]

Hmm. what are some stocks that benefit most from a higher nzd? I would like to add some of those since im a bit heavy in FPH

[bull....]

Bascand & Orr put.

https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/105248/rbnz-deputy-governor-geoff-bascand-says-deposit-rates-could-drop-zero-and-some-savers

thats what i was saying its a war on term deposits to get lower mortgage rates and make you spend all your money. old people are going to subsidise low mortgages for young people


RBNZ Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand says deposit rates could drop to zero and some savers might want to put their money to work elsewhere

old people can put it in bitcoin when they are getting zero rates on term deposit.

[clip]

Old people dont understand and won't buy bitcoin, it's not super complicated but it's not easy to do, or to sell again later when you need cash. Imo

[moka]

All of this is if the coronavirus prompts another economic lockdown... And that's only likely to happen now if we start importing cases from overseas again and the government is pretty committed to not letting that happen.
Welcome to Sharetrader iroh. I see it is your first post. Thanks for joining the discussion.

[bull....]

rally faded for now good run.

key points for tomorrow

China approves controversial national security bill for Hong Kong
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/28/china-approves-proposal-to-impose-national-security-law-in-hong-kong.html


Trump warns China of strong U.S. response if it imposes new Hong Kong law
https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idOVCF0PXB3

lets see if hes bark and no bite as china is now asserting itself more. seems funny the UK is not more involved since they signed the handover but i guess they a such a declining power now its not surprising

[blackcap]

Old people dont understand and won't buy bitcoin, it's not super complicated but it's not easy to do, or to sell again later when you need cash. Imo

What about the spreads... just exorbitant. Agree, people over 60 (those with the wealth) will generally not go down that route.

[bull....]

Old people dont understand and won't buy bitcoin, it's not super complicated but it's not easy to do, or to sell again later when you need cash. Imo

probably not buy bitcoin i would imagine most old people just keep there money in the bank at zero % for security reasons as has happened overseas. even ANZ say this will happen and the RBNZ so thats why they can take deposits down to zero wont be a wholesale run of cash out of banks

[Balance]

Bitcoin is a SCAM - for fools, shysters and traders.

[Balance]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516859/guide-to-market-recoveries.html

For those who need some reassurance that the markets will recover - not a matter of if but when.

Interesting that each market crash had been followed by new market highs - even while the doomsday merchants pronounced each successive crash as unrecoverable.

[Lewylewylewy]

In terms of making transactions and simply holding (sorry hodling) I think that bitcoin is exceptionally complicated and risky for the average person.

When you consider the level of IT literacy and computer security of the average person, I would say that even if most people could buy bitcoin, they shouldn't.

[dobby41]

In terms of making transactions and simply holding (sorry hodling) I think that bitcoin is exceptionally complicated and risky for the average person.

When you consider the level of IT literacy and computer security of the average person, I would say that even if most people could buy bitcoin, they shouldn't.

I have missed why we are even talking about bitcoin - how does it help anything?

[Balance]

I have missed why we are even talking about bitcoin - how does it help anything?

The Bitcoin scam artists &/or traders will take every opportunity to promote their scam. That's why.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516859/guide-to-market-recoveries.html

For those who need some reassurance that the markets will recover - not a matter of if but when.

Interesting that each market crash had been followed by new market highs - even while the doomsday merchants pronounced each successive crash as unrecoverable.

Absolutely ... long term markets always recovered. Individual industries and companies however might not. It might be currently as well more appropriate to remind people that markets don't always go upwards, particularly if the economic environment looks really bad, and that there is some correlation between earnings and share prices.

Given that company earnings got slashed for many industries and will be down for many months to come (Tourism, travel, hospitality, retail, banking, construction, real estate) is it unlikely that share prices in these areas will stay high forever. So - yes, ultimately markets will recover, but it might be appropriate to remind people to mind the gap ahead of us prior to the start of the next uptrend :):

[Entrep]

The Bitcoin scam artists &/or traders will take every opportunity to promote their scam. That's why.

Because mentioning it on ST is going to move the market. LOL

Most of you haven't been to the Crypto thread here, so I'll enlighten you. Balance or his or her friend got ripped off trying to buy Bitcoin and now he or she has an extremely irrational stance on it.

BITCOIN IS NOT A SCAM

Edit - not saying this applies to Balance, but most every sophisticated equity market participant (analysts, traders, etc) that I have talked to over the years has an unreasonably negative view on BTC, without bothering to try and understand it or why it exists. It borders on some sort of contempt that they missed the gains, or that others could make money without them getting a cut/without their assistance or advice. Take from that what you will.

[dobby41]

Edit - not saying this applies to Balance, but most every sophisticated equity market participant (analysts, traders, etc) that I have talked to over the years has an unreasonably negative view on BTC, without bothering to try and understand it or why it exists. It borders on some sort of contempt that they missed the gains, or that others could make money without them getting a cut/without their assistance or advice. Take from that what you will.

Probaly best in the crypto thread.

[winner69]

Probaly best in the crypto thread.

What are these thread things?

[dobby41]

What are these thread things?

Is this a serious question?
The joke is lost on me.

[dobby41]

The Bitcoin scam artists &/or traders will take every opportunity to promote their scam. That's why.

Thanks - I thought I was missing something but it seems I'm not.

[bull....]

scam lol i dont see it on the financial authorities website under current listed scams


At 8,990,000% Gains, Bitcoin Dwarfs All Other Investments This Decade

of course you should understand it before investing

[dobby41]

scam lol i dont see it on the financial authorities website under current listed scams


At 8,990,000% Gains, Bitcoin Dwarfs All Other Investments This Decade

of course you should understand it before investing

Sitll the wrong thread - all been thrashed around in the crypto and bitcoin threads.

[Tomtom]

I don't know what impact, if any, civil unrest will cause but the US has erupted (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52865206).

Coronavirus cases continue to mount in many states (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), including populous California.

[bull....]

I don't know what impact, if any, civil unrest will cause but the US has erupted (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52865206).

Coronavirus cases continue to mount in many states (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), including populous California.

the futures open at 10am so we will know then , but im sure it cant be good thinking of all the lost sales everywhere etc also the chinese must be chuckling to themselves as well over this.

As for fridays market event of trumps speech over hong kong was really a non event mostly bark with no time lines

[Chippie]

Absolutely ... long term markets always recovered. Individual industries and companies however might not.

So - yes, ultimately markets will recover, but it might be appropriate to remind people to mind the gap ahead of us prior to the start of the next uptrend :):

I think this is the point that too many people are missing. I remember in 1987 when everyone at my work were saying Chase corporation (and others) would never go under. They kept buying shares all the way to bottom, then lost it all. Plenty of companies will not survive, and it is hard to know which ones they will be.

[bull....]

I think this is the point that too many people are missing. I remember in 1987 when everyone at my work were saying Chase corporation (and others) would never go under. They kept buying shares all the way to bottom, then lost it all. Plenty of companies will not survive, and it is hard to know which ones they will be.

very true

the futures open in the red in the US , australia not looking good possibly down 2% today

[Biscuit]

I think this is the point that too many people are missing. I remember in 1987 when everyone at my work were saying Chase corporation (and others) would never go under. They kept buying shares all the way to bottom, then lost it all. Plenty of companies will not survive, and it is hard to know which ones they will be.

Having been there and done that (lost money in the 80s on companies like Chase), I think public companies in NZ are quite a different kettle of fish than they were back then. Since the 80s experience, I've always steered clear of companies that don't have strong positive cashflow from operations and companies that don't have a clear definition of what their industry, focus and expertise is. I don't think there are many companies now that fit the Chase mold.

[kiora]

If it really is a black void would so many be out shopping & propping up bars & restaurants this weekend?
Town seems extra busy in spite of it being wet.
It will be interesting to see the transaction figures & GST takes since beginning of last week.
As someone pointed out % of those in financial stress only up 5?%

[kiora]

If it really is a black void would so many be out shopping & propping up bars & restaurants this weekend?
Town seems extra busy in spite of it being wet.
It will be interesting to see the transaction figures & GST takes since beginning of last week.
As someone pointed out % of those in financial stress only up 5?%
Maybe it is the Afterpay effect??

[blackcap]

very true

the futures open in the red in the US , australia not looking good possibly down 2% today

I see Australia up today. Those futures really off the mark today huh!

[bull....]

I see Australia up today. Those futures really off the mark today huh!

yep up now , open was almost the low of the day and shows why you need to watch like a hawk futures or cfd trading

[bull....]

wall st ended up even with riots happening and retaliation from china on ag purchases... think we are going to the moon lol

China Halts Some U.S. Farm Imports, Threatening Trade Deal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-01/china-halts-some-u-s-farm-imports-threatening-trade-deal?srnd=premium-asia

even one of my aussie brokers has dropped commissions to 0 on us stocks now and $5 per trade for aussie shares. cool shame about NZ rates

[BlackPeter]

Amazing ... the US on fire (pun intended), new Coronavirus infections (on a seven day basis) at their highest level ever and the markets keep rising.

I think it was Marie Antoinette who famously said "let them eat cake" when she heard the revolt of the hungry masses. Just some angry mob - nothing to see here.

It didn't took long after that event that said mob did help her to displace her empty head (and other heads of the governing class) using one of these French cutting tools (guillotine).

Just wondering when it is the time of the US swamp monster to follow her example? Lets think - what might this do to the stock markets ...? Ah right - another all time high :t_up:.

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-math-shows-why-u-182018867.html

Highest net short selling since 2015 - so there has been plenty of selling.

[winner69]

Implied Equity Risk Premium dropping sharply

Appears as if equities in US are almost risk free

No worries

[blackcap]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-math-shows-why-u-182018867.html

Highest net short selling since 2015 - so there has been plenty of selling.

That is interesting in itself. So more selling than normal, yet equities still rising fast. That means when the shorts have to cover, and cover they must, this will further exacerbate the rising equities. Interesting times.

[bull....]

trump mobilizing troops , futures falling at the moment , watching bitcoin 10k breakup

[JohnnyTheHorse]

trump mobilizing troops , futures falling at the moment , watching bitcoin 10k breakup

Nearly every day futures are red they turn green by open. Has been incredible stuff.

[bull....]

Nearly every day futures are red they turn green by open. Has been incredible stuff.

so true , the prop brigade doing a good job. but all good things cant last forever even money printing

[Poet]

Amazing ... the US on fire (pun intended), new Coronavirus infections (on a seven day basis) at their highest level ever and the markets keep rising.

I think it was Marie Antoinette who famously said "let them eat cake" when she heard the revolt of the hungry masses. Just some angry mob - nothing to see here.

It didn't took long after that event that said mob did help her to displace her empty head (and other heads of the governing class) using one of these French cutting tools (guillotine).

Just wondering when it is the time of the US swamp monster to follow her example? Lets think - what might this do to the stock markets ...? Ah right - another all time high :t_up:.


Fake news though, unfortunately
https://www.britannica.com/story/did-marie-antoinette-really-say-let-them-eat-cake

[kiora]

"Westpac economists say there are some signs the economy is recovering better than expected from the lockdown and they are now doubting that unemployment will get quite as high as they had been predicting.

In their Weekly Economic Commentary they say their forecast was that the economy would settle 6% below the pre-Covid-19 level after the lockdown was lifted.

"But some recent data is tentatively suggesting that the economic situation may not be quite as severe as that. This has seen some easing in the risk-off sentiment that had permeated through financial markets in recent months."

The economists say retail spending rebounded "surprisingly vigorously" after the lockdown was lifted."
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/105315/westpac-economists-say-some-recent-data-tentatively-suggesting-economic-situation

[Balance]

ASB Bank joins the more positive (or less pessimistic) commentary with the unexpectedly better than expected rebound in NZ economic activity :

Business confidence continued to lift throughout May and ASB card spending data show that spending has recovered to around pre-COVID levels.

This quick recovery in spending, coupled with a turning point in both business and consumer sentiment, is certainly a positive development.


Looking back to Q1 and the early days of the global pandemic, the first estimates of Q1 GDP from across the world have trickled in over recent weeks to give an early taste of the economic damage inflicted by the pandemic.

Business confidence continued to lift throughout May (as confirmed by the full May results of the ANZ business outlook survey) and we expect to see further improvement in business confidence over June.

Recent developments can be described as marginally better than expected (albeit from some exceptionally low expectations) with NZ looking like it eliminated the virus from our shores and real-time activity indicators – such as card spending, electricity demand and traffic volumes – suggesting activity may have bounced back more quickly than we had expected during Level 2.

ASB card spending data show that spending has recovered to around pre-COVID levels. Certainly, there is a lot of lost ground that will never be recouped (i.e. all those missed weekend brunches and weekday coffees).

Nonetheless, this quick recovery in spending, coupled with a turning point in both business and consumer sentiment, is certainly a positive development. This author can personally report that shops were very busy over Queen’s Birthday Weekend, with one customer service assistant noting Saturday morning had felt busier than Christmas.

[clip]

I went to the new 277 Westfield in Auckland on Monday for a haircut and it was the busiest I've ever seen it

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worried-comments-feds-powell-foreshadow-090000217.html

Now that markets have recovered sufficiently to mute the doom merchants, time to contemplate where the markets go from here.

Slow steady rise from here with the Feds & other Central Banks guaranteeing liquidity and plenty of cheap money - seems to be the consensus.

BUT

Watch for a second wave - if it happens, all hell will break loose. So stay alert and stay safe. Only invest as much as you can sleep well at nights.

[blackcap]

With forward looking markets I agree with what one financial pundit said "either the fundamentals catch up with where the market is, or the market catches up to the fundamentals" I still see the later as more likely. As a number of papers have demonstrated it's the virus that is a significant driver of the economic downturns, not just the lockdowns. So, even as lockdowns lift, economic downturns will persist. I dont think it will take a second wave for markets to head south again, I still belive it is a matter of time. That said, its pretty clear that in the face of all that there are wonderful investing opportunities to be had. Just gotta pick the right sectors. GL all!

How is the virus a driver of economic downturn? That just does not make sense. The lockdowns (because of the virus) are the driver. If there were no lockdowns then economic activity globally (albeit with some extra mainly elderly dying) would not really have had much of a dent. Unless I am missing something obvious.

[mfd]

How is the virus a driver of economic downturn? That just does not make sense. The lockdowns (because of the virus) are the driver. If there were no lockdowns then economic activity globally (albeit with some extra mainly elderly dying) would not really have had much of a dent. Unless I am missing something obvious.

Natural fear of the disease will do a lot of the work a formal lockdown does. People will still be working from home where possible, avoiding public places, avoiding shops as much as possible. A large section of the population who are at risk will be in their own self-imposed lockdowns.

[blackcap]

Natural fear of the disease will do a lot of the work a formal lockdown does. People will still be working from home where possible, avoiding public places, avoiding shops as much as possible. A large section of the population who are at risk will be in their own self-imposed lockdowns.

Fair call. I guess I don't fall in that category (natural fear of covid) so it does not affect me. But you are right there are a lot of the population that do fit that category so had not thought about self imposed isolation etc. That does make sense.

[mfd]

Fair call. I guess I don't fall in that category (natural fear of covid) so it does not affect me. But you are right there are a lot of the population that do fit that category so had not thought about self imposed isolation etc. That does make sense.

I forgot to mention, many people would have avoided overseas travel as far as possible even if borders weren't locked, so tourism was likely to take a dive anyway.

A strict lockdown will certainly have made the economic pain more intense, but if it works out in New Zealand it could be the better option overall. In other parts of the world it simply stopped the hospitals from completely failing.

[bottomfeeder]

I get the feeling that the market is becoming too firm in its pricing. Maybe a correction on the way soon.

[Balance]

I get the feeling that the market is becoming too firm in its pricing. Maybe a correction on the way soon.

Inevitable buy from what level?

[blackcap]

I've posted a couple articles for you Blackcap (and others), academic papers which disentangle the effects of Covid / lockdown etc. I suggest you have a read of them rather than me trying to paraphrase for you. But in short, yes, you are missing something obvious.... The first article I posted was a natural experiment, comparing the economic impacts faced by Sweden (no lock down) with those of Denmark (lock down). Two relatively comparable countries. I suspect you will find the results surprising. It basically makes all those suggesting that governments imposing lockdowns have caused all the economic harm look a little silly.

The Swedish v Denmark example is a bit of a red herring though. If all countries do a lockup and one outlier does not, with the amount of trade/inter dependency etc these days, then that one outlier is going to suffer as well aren't they. Not because of anything other than that their neighbours are not trading/visiting them etc. What would be interesting to see is the opposite, one country does a lockup and all other neighbouring/trading countries did not. But that is not going to happen.

[Balance]

The Swedish v Denmark example is a bit of a red herring though. If all countries do a lockup and one outlier does not, with the amount of trade/inter dependency etc these days, then that one outlier is going to suffer as well aren't they. Not because of anything other than that their neighbours are not trading/visiting them etc. What would be interesting to see is the opposite, one country does a lockup and all other neighbouring/trading countries did not. But that is not going to happen.

What must be assessed is the degree of lockdown & the resulting economic impact.

NZ vs Australia vs Taiwan.

[moka]

Imagine that the Fed hired Blackrock to buy Junk Bonds and ETFs to bail out Blackrock’s Bond portfolio and then Blackrock bought ETFs managed by Blackrock from Blackrock that have as their biggest holding, not bonds but a Blackrock money market fund

https://twitter.com/paranoidbull/status/1263983952173453319?s=21
Interesting article on the dawn of the BlackRock Era. The world’s largest asset manager is poised for overwhelming influence no matter who wins the next presidential election.
In recent years, we’ve been living in the Goldman Sachs era. The list of former high-level Goldman Sachs employees who held high-level government offices in the most recent decade is lengthy.
BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager, handling $7.4 trillion in customer assets. It’s twice as profitable as Goldman. BlackRock is part money manager, part institutional investor, part software platform, and part government partner. It’s a pioneer in junk bonds, and has often been referred to as the world’s largest shadow bank.
In March, the Federal Reserve announced that it had tapped BlackRock to serve as an investment adviser and asset manager for multiple debt-buying programs on behalf of the U.S. central bank as part of the CARES Act bailout program, a money pot worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
That decision put BlackRock on both sides of a multitrillion-dollar bailout windfall: As Bloomberg reported, “Under the arrangement [BlackRock] could buy some of its own funds on behalf of the central bank.
BlackRock employees managing the Fed’s $750 billion corporate credit facility are permitted to trade on the information they’ve learned in advising the Fed after just two weeks of “cooling off.
That regulatory standard means that the firm and its individual traders are primed to benefit massively and legally from insider knowledge of what’s been by far the most robust and efficient component of the bailout so far.
https://prospect.org/economy/the-dawn-of-the-blackrock-era/

[kiora]

Interesting article on the dawn of the BlackRock Era. The world’s largest asset manager is poised for overwhelming influence no matter who wins the next presidential election.
In recent years, we’ve been living in the Goldman Sachs era. The list of former high-level Goldman Sachs employees who held high-level government offices in the most recent decade is lengthy.
BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager, handling $7.4 trillion in customer assets. It’s twice as profitable as Goldman. BlackRock is part money manager, part institutional investor, part software platform, and part government partner. It’s a pioneer in junk bonds, and has often been referred to as the world’s largest shadow bank.
In March, the Federal Reserve announced that it had tapped BlackRock to serve as an investment adviser and asset manager for multiple debt-buying programs on behalf of the U.S. central bank as part of the CARES Act bailout program, a money pot worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
That decision put BlackRock on both sides of a multitrillion-dollar bailout windfall: As Bloomberg reported, “Under the arrangement [BlackRock] could buy some of its own funds on behalf of the central bank.
BlackRock employees managing the Fed’s $750 billion corporate credit facility are permitted to trade on the information they’ve learned in advising the Fed after just two weeks of “cooling off.
That regulatory standard means that the firm and its individual traders are primed to benefit massively and legally from insider knowledge of what’s been by far the most robust and efficient component of the bailout so far.
https://prospect.org/economy/the-dawn-of-the-blackrock-era/

Please tell me this couldn't,ever ,happen in NZ !

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12337026
Paywall article

"The New Zealand dollar continued to rise as sentiment in global equities markets remained relentlessly positive about the global economy reviving with countries emerging from Covid-19 lockdowns."
Guess we will see more overseas funds to go into NZX stocks too.

[Balance]

Funny old world - Did the market collapse of March 23rd 2020 actually happened?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-european-stocks-strong-chinese-economic-services-data-ftse-dax-cac-075532395.html

European stocks gained for a third consecutive day on Wednesday as strong data from China’s services sector fuelled investors’ hopes that the global economy will stage a strong recovery from the coronavirus crisis.

Markets looked set to side-step any impact from the continued civil unrest in the US, which saw largely peaceful protestors defy curfews across the country on Tuesday night.

A closely watched survey by IHS Markit found that China’s services sector’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading came in at 55.0 in May, its highest since October 2010.

[moka]

Pierre Haski, a noted French journalist, commented on France Inter on Monday: "Beijing could not have hoped for a better gift. The country that designates China as the culprit of all evils is making headlines around the world with the urban riots."
'We are all George Floyd': Global anger grows over a death in Minneapolis.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12336411

[bull....]

stimulus picking up again

ECB set to scale up stimulus as new data could indicate a need to do more


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/ecb-set-to-scale-up-stimulus-as-data-could-indicate-a-need-to-do-more.html

china also started some QE this week all in all plenty of money printing worldwide happening and obviously it is flowing to a degree into equity markets.

we picked the bounce point of the market pretty good from the march plunge

heres a update of the long term chart from a posting earlier , mentioned on the thread about the previous low plunge was the area to watch for a bounce and panned out good. the only surprise being the size of the bounce and the short bear also the divergence in fundamentals from reality due to money printing. abc is the correction wave in the elliot wave count.
NZX showed similar wave counts with the abc confirmed around 8600 level

11644

most of my interest now is in US/aus as trading commissions are much lower ( zero in the US and under .11 or less in aus ) than NZ by a huge margin now. NZ is not a good trading market because of liquidity and commissions. it is good for income only really and has become small market for opportunities

[clip]

The S&P 500 has returned 37.7% over the last 50 trading days, making it the benchmark index’s largest 50-day rally in history, according to LPL Financial.

[winner69]

The S&P 500 has returned 37.7% over the last 50 trading days, making it the benchmark index’s largest 50-day rally in history, according to LPL Financial.

The markets are forward looking they say ...l.as one pundit puts it from today’s level looking forward to negative returns over the next 10 years on the S&P500


Just as well that’s not today’s story.

[King1212]

Crazy.....seem to be so disconnected with the current condition.

Too many newbies buying ... ignoring the fundamentals of companies

Next crash will be worst

[Balance]

Don’t fight the Fed.

And what did the doom merchants and short sellers do?

[winner69]

Crazy.....seem to be so disconnected with the current condition.

Too many newbies buying ... ignoring the fundamentals of companies

Next crash will be worst

Just think of today and maybe tomorrow .....future don’t matter King

[King1212]

I know master winner.....I am pretty scared now to buy and hold any shares

[Leftfield]

And overnight news (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/03/pandemic-no-deal-brexit-vote-leavers-coronavirus) that the UK is struggling to reach a trade deal with the EEC ....good for NZ trade.

[Balance]

And overnight news (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/03/pandemic-no-deal-brexit-vote-leavers-coronavirus) that the UK is struggling to reach a trade deal with the EEC ....good for NZ trade.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121711010/standard--poors-sees-bridge-to-recovery-in-new-zealand

And here’s S&P giving the thumbs up to prospects of economic recovery in NZ & 😳 lower than forecast unemployment.

[dobby41]

I know master winner.....I am pretty scared now to buy and hold any shares

Time to be bold when the King is scared.

[clip]

I know master winner.....I am pretty scared now to buy and hold any shares

People have been saying that since March 23rd, saying this is a sucker rally, saying there is no V shaped recovery possible.. all the while every day the opposite has been happening and they have missed out on nearly 40% gains since the low. Given there is not much longer until back to pre-covid levels, how much longer do people hang on desperately hoping for a crash to get back in?

[BlackPeter]

People have been saying that since March 23rd, saying this is a sucker rally, saying there is no V shaped recovery possible.. all the while every day the opposite has been happening and they have missed out on nearly 40% gains since the low. Given there is not much longer until back to pre-covid levels, how much longer do people hang on desperately hoping for a crash to get back in?

Market is always most exuberant close to the peaks ... take care out there.

How long do you think company earnings and share prices can stay divorced from each other?

[BlackPeter]

Just noticing: CNN Fear & Greed Index moved up to 60 (i.e. moderate greed). Not the highest I remember, but pretty remarkable for a situation where company earnings for many industries are squashed. How high can it go before it drops?

[clip]

Market is always most exuberant close to the peaks ... take care out there.

How long do you think company earnings and share prices can stay divorced from each other?

However long they've been divorced for already, 3 years? So, another 3 years

[Entrep]

how much longer do people hang on desperately hoping for a crash to get back in?

Who's desperate? Plenty of things to spend money on other than overpriced shares!

[BlackPeter]

However long they've been divorced for already, 3 years? So, another 3 years

Not quite sure where your three years come from, but I give you that the correlation between Stock Market Index (here S&P 500) and the relevant PE was over the last 20 years somewhat counter intuitive (blue line is the PE, black line is the index):

11647

(chart courtesy to : https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-keeps-rising-while-earnings-keep-falling-what-if-stocks-are-right-2020-05-09)

For long periods it looks like the higher the PE (i.e. the lower the earnings), the higher the Index, which does not make sense in a rational market.

Obviously - there are other factors in the play like reserve banks inflating equity prices by slashing interest rates and by sprinkling free money (QE) around. Easy to see in the chart how stocks getting dearer after the GFC ...

The questions I see are:

1) Given that stock prices don't follow any natural laws ... at what stage will the majority of stockholders think that the PE ratio they are paying is too high? In the dotcom bubble it was 24, in the GFC it was 15 and now it is close to 21.

2) Is the current PE ratio (21) which is still based on last FY's earnings really reflecting the forwards earnings, or is it more likely that earnings crash rather than go up (or stay constant) from here? If earnings go down by 50% in average than this would double the PE. Is a PE of 42 still a sensible price to pay for a stock?

Anyway - what I can see in this chart is that the PE (again, based on last years earnings) is already coming close to its 2000 peak (dotcom bubble), while the index is basically at an all time high.

I think this is a reason to be cautious, but if you think that trends only can go into one direction, then good luck with your investment strategy ... :p;

[Oberon]

I was in the doom merchant category, if you want to use that terminology. DOW has hit it's 200 day MA and nothing is rattling this rally, it seems.

So now, I'm thinking - could it be? Are we actually going to put in a V-shaped recovery?

The very fact I've caught myself thinking that is enough to keep me on the cautious side.

Shorting exacerbates the problem; they pile on thinking it's the peak, the market does a number on them and we get another short squeeze.

You do have to wonder if something has to give, eventually.

[Sideshow Bob]

Who's desperate? Plenty of things to spend money on other than overpriced shares!

Yeah, exactly! I bought some new golf clubs yesterday! :t_up:

[clip]

Not quite sure where your three years come from, but I give you that the correlation between Stock Market Index (here S&P 500) and the relevant PE was over the last 20 years somewhat counter intuitive (blue line is the PE, black line is the index):

11647

(chart courtesy to : https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-keeps-rising-while-earnings-keep-falling-what-if-stocks-are-right-2020-05-09)

For long periods it looks like the higher the PE (i.e. the lower the earnings), the higher the Index, which does not make sense in a rational market.

Obviously - there are other factors in the play like reserve banks inflating equity prices by slashing interest rates and by sprinkling free money (QE) around. Easy to see in the chart how stocks getting dearer after the GFC ...

The questions I see are:

1) Given that stock prices don't follow any natural laws ... at what stage will the majority of stockholders think that the PE ratio they are paying is too high? In the dotcom bubble it was 24, in the GFC it was 15 and now it is close to 21.

2) Is the current PE ratio (21) which is still based on last FY's earnings really reflecting the forwards earnings, or is it more likely that earnings crash rather than go up (or stay constant) from here? If earnings go down by 50% in average than this would double the PE. Is a PE of 42 still a sensible price to pay for a stock?

Anyway - what I can see in this chart is that the PE (again, based on last years earnings) is already coming close to its 2000 peak (dotcom bubble), while the index is basically at an all time high.

I think this is a reason to be cautious, but if you think that trends only can go into one direction, then good luck with your investment strategy ... :p;

My 3 years was purely a gut feel, with no evidence to back it up, however you asked so I answered. Based on your chart I potentially wasn't far off as it looks to be around 3-4 years ago the S&P divergence from PE really kicked off

[BlackPeter]

My 3 years was purely a gut feel, with no evidence to back it up, however you asked so I answered. Based on your chart I potentially wasn't far off as it looks to be around 3-4 years ago the S&P divergence from PE really kicked off

I don't think you understand the chart. Have another look.

[Balance]

I don't think you understand the chart. Have another look.

Have to observe that the market priced in future earnings growth pretty well!

[winner69]

This is interesting chart BP

[winner69]

But then again PE ratios are pretty useless at ‘projecting’ future growth

[BlackPeter]

But then again PE ratios are pretty useless at ‘projecting’ future growth

I think we established already that nobody can predict future stock prices (Ben Graham). Your scatter graph just shows that Ben was right all the time ... as, i am sure, we knew before :);

[BlackPeter]

This is interesting chart BP

It is. Actually I think this is the chart I was looking for when I wrote my initial response, but I couldn't find it. Where did you find it? Is it from one of the ANZ briefing papers?

Actually - not sure, whether interesting is the right word to describe it. "Frightening" might be a more appropriate term.

Now the question is - do earnings follow the share price or does the share price still follow the earnings :scared:?

[winner69]

It is. Actually I think this is the chart I was looking for when I wrote my initial response, but I couldn't find it. Where did you find it? Is it from one of the ANZ briefing papers?

Actually - not sure, whether interesting is the right word to describe it. "Frightening" might be a more appropriate term.

Now the question is - do earnings follow the share price or does the share price still follow the earnings :scared:?

Factset.com Insights ....have some good stuff

Free to see their regular updates

[BlackPeter]

Factset.com Insights ....have some good stuff

Free to see their regular updates

cheers - look like worthwhile to browse.

Found as well this beauty: https://insight.factset.com/record-high-cuts-to-sp-500-eps-estimates-for-q2-2020-to-date

[kiwico]

I think EFTs have their place to play in the ever increasing stretch in the average PE. A prudent investor determines whether a share price is becoming expensive but an ETF is buying shares at whatever the price. Without intending to sound too much like Chris Lee the higher an individual share price compared to the competition the more an ETF buys of that share.

[blackcap]

I think EFTs have their place to play in the ever increasing stretch in the average PE. A prudent investor determines whether a share price is becoming expensive but an ETF is buying shares at whatever the price. Without intending to sound too much like Chris Lee the higher an individual share price compared to the competition the more an ETF buys of that share.

I used to think that too, but then I did the "what if the money that was destined for a passive ETF went into the market direct". The amount of $ into the market is still the same so relatively the average PE stays the same. There would still be no difference in the PE stretch would there? (most would argue that active fund managers also buy whatever the price and they pretty much stick pretty close to the index)

And if there is supposed "stretch" then one day this will revert to the mean and you will have been able to make alpha returns by buying dog stocks in indexes. Not sure if passive ETF's have been around long to do a good proper analysis of that though.

I myself have started an experiment and have 2 funds. One I purchase the NZ top 50 by capitalisation (mirroring the FNZ) and another I purchase equal chunks of the top 50 stocks. So far the equal chunks fund is ahead but its very early days. I reweight each one half yearly on the 30th June and 31st Dec.

[Balance]

A fearless market - when there's actually a lot to be fearful about.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-wall-street-yawns-in-the-face-of-coronavirus-protest-chaos-172851195.html

So why is Wall St ignoring all that bad news out there, and keep rallying higher?

“Investors are looking beyond the current environment and they’re looking at the fact that policymakers have put forward a firm commitment to do what it takes ... and they’re expecting recovery,” Arone said, even as current market psychology looks like “a head-scratcher” to some.

“There are a number of risks on the horizon but ... if you believe that on the other side of the pandemic, we’ll return to some element of economic growth with very low rates, benign inflation and ... incredible support in both fiscal and monetary policy, that has historically been a very strong backdrop” for markets, he added.

[moka]

Common sense from Mohamed El-Erian. “I understand people who bet on moral hazard, on the Fed backstop. I don’t do it. I don’t think it is good way to invest. I’d rather invest on the basis of fundamentals.
Why has the Fed continually conditioned markets to expect them to step in and repress any volatility? And isn’t it time to stop doing that because you end up not only undermining the system itself but you undermine the credibility of an institution that is critical to the well-being for this and future generations.
We are increasingly in a lose/lose/lose situation for central banks.
You lose if try to undo what you’ve been doing.
You lose if you do more, and that’s what markets are pushing for. Markets are pushing for negative interest rates, for yield curve control, for even stronger forward guidance. Why? Markets are functioning fine.
And you also lose if you don’t do anything because you have this massive disconnect.
You focus on people. We have done a great job restoring the markets. Companies are laying off people. The Main Street program hasn’t got off the ground. Otherwise the social elements will start impinging on the economic elements.
Unless we take that seriously this economy is going to be so unbalanced it is going to be difficult to produce high economic growth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9GicM9Qtc8

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-says-wealthy-clients-holding-163549682.html

Citibank advises that wealthy clients are sitting on too much cash.

Guess they are all still waiting for that massive crash which happened 3 months ago?

[Entrep]

Marketpocalypse is coming https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gwhycu/once_more_unto_the_marketpocalypse_breach/

[bull....]

us markets on fire

ECONOMY (https://www.cnbc.com/economy/)May sees biggest jobs increase ever of 2.5 million as economy starts to recover from coronavirus


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/jobs-report-may-2020.html

heres a chart of the NZX interesting it never really fell out of its bull market trend the bear market ended at point c on the chart and briefly only fell out of the bull trend but as defined by what everyone says you had to talk about it as a bear as that is how a 20% fall is characterised in the media to the masses.

guess all those people who opened new accounts and the sharesis crowd busy buying frantically during the bottom or just above were better gauge of what to do than the gurus on sharetrader lol



11660

the best gains on the NZX last mth have been the beaten up stocks just like in the US

in order of best gains

thl
vgl
sko
kmd
air
oca

some beaten up ones that havnt really bounced yet

awf
erd
zel
sek
bgp
tra
gxh

and the atm and fph ones that were the safe harbours during the worst of the bear are now selling off as people take there gains and recycle into other stocks

anyway as ive been saying for quite a while its momo that matters not fundamentals , fundamentals mean jack at the moment

[Cadalac123]

us markets on fire

ECONOMY (https://www.cnbc.com/economy/)May sees biggest jobs increase ever of 2.5 million as economy starts to recover from coronavirus


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/jobs-report-may-2020.html

heres a chart of the NZX interesting it never really fell out of its bull market trend the bear market ended at point c on the chart and briefly only fell out of the bull trend but as defined by what everyone says you had to talk about it as a bear as that is how a 20% fall is characterised in the media to the masses.

guess all those people who opened new accounts and the sharesis crowd busy buying frantically during the bottom or just above were better gauge of what to do than the gurus on sharetrader lol



11660

the best gains on the NZX last mth have been the beaten up stocks just like in the US

in order of best gains

thl
vgl
sko
kmd
air
oca

some beaten up ones that havnt really bounced yet

awf
erd
zel
sek
bgp
tra
gxh

and the atm and fph ones that were the safe harbours during the worst of the bear are now selling off as people take there gains and recycle into other stocks

anyway as ive been saying for quite a while its momo that matters not fundamentals , fundamentals mean jack at the moment







Fundamentals always matter, institutions thought the price of those distressed companies you listed went well below intrinsic value and they got pumped as opportunistic buys / contrarian pickups by the big institutes

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-money-looking-lot-smarter-173646487.html

Wonderful to see the doom & gloom merchants proven wrong, and in the most resounding way.

The game is still not over of course but those who heed the warning ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ have done well.

Congratulations are in order - Well Done to those who invested well in the last 2 months.

[winner69]

No comment

[King1212]

Market is ruthless eh Master winner.

[Entrep]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-money-looking-lot-smarter-173646487.html

Wonderful to see the doom & gloom merchants proven wrong, and in the most resounding way.

The game is still not over of course but those who heed the warning ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ have done well.

So which is it? Bears proven wrong or the game is not over Balance? I'm assuming you've locked in profits to be fully of such puffery.
Instead of gloating I'd rather give a congratulations to those who bought/held through this period.

[blackcap]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-money-looking-lot-smarter-173646487.html

Wonderful to see the doom & gloom merchants proven wrong, and in the most resounding way.

The game is still not over of course but those who heed the warning ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ have done well.

Congratulations are in order - Well Done to those who invested well in the last 2 months.

I read somewhere it was the biggest one month jobs gain since 1939 and it shocked Wall St....
https://www.dailywire.com/news/unemployment-rate-shocks-wall-street-drops-to-13-3-biggest-one-month-job-gain-since-1939?%3Futm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dwtwitter

[Oberon]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-money-looking-lot-smarter-173646487.html

Wonderful to see the doom & gloom merchants proven wrong, and in the most resounding way.

The game is still not over of course but those who heed the warning ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ have done well.

Congratulations are in order - Well Done to those who invested well in the last 2 months.

The game is never over.

US equities sentiment reminding me a bit of Bitcoin sentiment in 2017.

Anyway, not everyone thinks it's on wards and upwards from here. Fair bit of insider selling a couple of days ago ...

11667

I had anticipated a W shaped recovery, at least. But, given the DOW smashed thru it's 200 MA, lord knows. S&P as overvalued as it was during the dot com bubble. Greed reaching euphoric levels ... Warren might still come out of this looking like the oracle.

For those who caught the rally, well done.

[bull....]

NZ firms Fletchers and Downer 'fuming' as $371m Govt KiwiRail contract goes overseas
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12337516


shame the govt does not want to support NZ businesses and jobs in a time like this , goes for the cheapest contract from china instead

[Balance]

So which is it? Bears proven wrong or the game is not over Balance? I'm assuming you've locked in profits to be fully of such puffery.
Instead of gloating I'd rather give a congratulations to those who bought/held through this period.

You trying to re-write my narrative by conveniently leaving out the last line?


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dumb-money-looking-lot-smarter-173646487.html

Wonderful to see the doom & gloom merchants proven wrong, and in the most resounding way.

The game is still not over of course but those who heed the warning ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ have done well.

Congratulations are in order - Well Done to those who invested well in the last 2 months.

And here's me writing 3 months ago :


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120290540/coronavirus-financial-markets-doomsday-scenarios-rarely-come-to-pass-says-sam-stubbs

Have a read,

don't just take notice of what the doomsday merchants write,

get comfortable with your investment exposure

and enjoy the day - the sun will rise tomorrow.

Things will get worse but a year from now, many will wonder like with other crises why they did not take advantage of some fire-sales coming up.

No hindsight, Entrep - been sticking my neck out via my posts & providing balance against the doom & gloom from the likes of you, bull and numerous others in the last 3 months.

[Snow Leopard]

3%+ Man you guys go wild and party hard when you are let loose. :t_up:

[percy]

3%+ Man you guys go wild and party hard when you are let loose. :t_up:

"The lunatics have taken over the asylum.".............lol.

[kiora]

3%+ Man you guys go wild and party hard when you are let loose. :t_up:

+3.3% wild as,bonkers ATH,feels so bizarre

[Baa_Baa]

Well I think that when the world goes mad and everyone is confounded by gains, that’s the time to reset the limit sells (stop loss) on all my shares, and adjust these daily as the share price rises. I’m not planning on being stopped out but if it happens I won’t be riding the elevators down.

[kiora]

Well I think that when the world goes mad and everyone is confounded by gains, that’s the time to reset the limit sells (stop loss) on all my shares, and adjust these daily as the share price rises. I’m not planning on being stopped out but if it happens I won’t be riding the elevators down.

Wise,BB,when even PEB up 13.7%,AIR up 9% etc it is disconnected

[Hoop]

"The lunatics have taken over the asylum.".............lol.

3%+ Man you guys go wild and party hard when you are let loose. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/thumbup.gif
.................

11673

[bull....]

Market Cap Of Bankrupt Hertz Approaches $1 Billion Amid Unstoppable Flood Of Retail Buyers


Why is the market cap of a bankrupt company where the vast majority of its bonds will be impaired and the pre-petition equity will receive nothing, trading at such a price? The answer can be found, as in so many other cases these days, with Robin Hood where almost 80,000 new buyers (https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ?symbol=HTZ)have emerged since the company filed for bankruptcy, sending the company stock soaring even though it is patently worthless

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-cap-bankrupt-hertz-approaches-1-billion-amid-unstoppable-flood-retail-buyers

[King1212]

Hyper inflation bull..... government printing money to pay bills. Eventually all debts will be worthless.

Assests will be higher n higher such as skc....kpg..arg....gold.... retirement stocka...or any companies that have good assests will go up n up

[Jaa]

Market Cap Of Bankrupt Hertz Approaches $1 Billion Amid Unstoppable Flood Of Retail Buyers


Why is the market cap of a bankrupt company where the vast majority of its bonds will be impaired and the pre-petition equity will receive nothing, trading at such a price? The answer can be found, as in so many other cases these days, with Robin Hood where almost 80,000 new buyers (https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ?symbol=HTZ)have emerged since the company filed for bankruptcy, sending the company stock soaring even though it is patently worthless

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-cap-bankrupt-hertz-approaches-1-billion-amid-unstoppable-flood-retail-buyers

Old news... the latest Robin Hood data (https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ?symbol=HTZ) shows 115k user holdings! :eek2:

Interesting tool to track sentiment. Only 70k users (https://robintrack.net/symbol/ZM) hold Zoom?!? But 665k hold American Airlines (https://robintrack.net/symbol/AAL), 321k hold United Airlines (https://robintrack.net/symbol/UAL) and 590k hold Delta Airlines (https://robintrack.net/symbol/DAL).

Lot of support for GE too. Checkout their leaderboard and popularity changes (https://robintrack.net/popularity_changes).

[bull....]

Old news... the latest Robin Hood data (https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ?symbol=HTZ) shows 115k user holdings! :eek2:

Interesting tool to track sentiment. Only 70k users (https://robintrack.net/symbol/ZM) hold Zoom?!? But 665k hold American Airlines (https://robintrack.net/symbol/AAL), 321k hold United Airlines (https://robintrack.net/symbol/UAL) and 590k hold Delta Airlines (https://robintrack.net/symbol/DAL).

Lot of support for GE too. Checkout their leaderboard and popularity changes (https://robintrack.net/popularity_changes).

like you say good tool for sentiment. amazing the numbers of punters in some of these beaten up stocks , must be smart punters eh

[Jaa]

like you say good tool for sentiment. amazing the numbers of punters in some of these beaten up stocks , must be smart punters eh

I was expecting to find lots of tech, cannabis stocks, tesla and artificial meat but instead just stared at GE in second place with 800k punters :confused:

[Snow Leopard]

All is great in America, just ask the man at the top he will tell you so :t_up:

[bull....]

I was expecting to find lots of tech, cannabis stocks, tesla and artificial meat but instead just stared at GE in second place with 800k punters :confused:

too be honest i looked at ge last year as i thought it could be a turnaround , they have some good parts , but also some bad parts and pension liabilities is big and of course covid hasnt helped them

[Balance]

Market Cap Of Bankrupt Hertz Approaches $1 Billion Amid Unstoppable Flood Of Retail Buyers


Why is the market cap of a bankrupt company where the vast majority of its bonds will be impaired and the pre-petition equity will receive nothing, trading at such a price? The answer can be found, as in so many other cases these days, with Robin Hood where almost 80,000 new buyers (https://robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ?symbol=HTZ)have emerged since the company filed for bankruptcy, sending the company stock soaring even though it is patently worthless

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-cap-bankrupt-hertz-approaches-1-billion-amid-unstoppable-flood-retail-buyers

A few points to note before you get too far down the track of thinking that the investors there are dumb:

1. Chapter 11 is a true & tested way of how US companies are able to restructure debts and operations to have a good chance of emerging in an operational state.

2. $1 billion sounds like a lot but in the context of the US market, is equivalent to $2.5m on NZX. US market - US$35 trillion vs NZX $74 billion. The whole of NZX (including the fictitious Market cap of Oz banks In the index) is less than 10% of a stock like Apple or Amazon.

[Oberon]

In a bit of non-news for the market, The US is now officially in a recession (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/08/872336272/its-official-scorekeepers-say-u-s-economy-is-in-a-recession?utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR0L5R0d8McC9sVh0R1AcDrpBapnT6rg8ics93hr2 Y4jSr4XggbvZ-9s1xM). Do fundamentals justify prices already returning to early 2020 levels, when shares were already overvalued?

To quote US economist Joseph Stiglitz: "If the reason that the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be high tomorrow - when fundamental factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."

Looking at the DOW on the daily - it's going parabolic. Parabolic moves rarely end with a 'levelling off'.

I think Baa Baa has the right idea.

[Entrep]

First Buffet got shaken out of the airlines by retail holders, now Icahn shaken out of Hertz by the same mob

Let's get Karen from Wichita, Kansas on the next CNBC Money Minute and ask what she's gonna pick up next. Screw these so called experts.

[Entrep]

No hindsight, Entrep - been sticking my neck out via my posts & providing balance against the doom & gloom from the likes of you, bull and numerous others in the last 3 months.

You've been name calling and personally gloating victory over the bears. I just post my views - whether you agree or disagree with them, I don't really care.

[Balance]

You've been name calling and personally gloating victory over the bears. I just post my views - whether you agree or disagree with them, I don't really care.

Not the bears - the doom & gloom merchants.

[Hoop]

In a bit of non-news for the market, The US is now officially in a recession (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/08/872336272/its-official-scorekeepers-say-u-s-economy-is-in-a-recession?utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR0L5R0d8McC9sVh0R1AcDrpBapnT6rg8ics93hr2 Y4jSr4XggbvZ-9s1xM). Do fundamentals justify prices already returning to early 2020 levels, when shares were already overvalued?

To quote US economist Joseph Stiglitz: "If the reason that the price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price will be high tomorrow - when fundamental factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."


Looking at the DOW on the daily - it's going parabolic. Parabolic moves rarely end with a 'levelling off'.

I think Baa Baa has the right idea.

Interesting thing ..It hasn't been 2 quarters yet today the NBER declared the USA is now in an Official Recession...It seems the requirement of 2 quarters contraction in GDP before being called an Official Recession is not strictly true...
Here are the reasoning the USA's is now in an Official Recession (NBER brief 2 pages PDF) (https://www.nber.org/cycles/june2020.pdf).

Also interesting and full of hyperlinks... 160 year data table showing USA 's business cycle expansions and contractions (https://www.nber.org/cycles.html)..Note:..the latest business cycle expansion was the longest on record.

[bull....]

profit taking day on the NZX

[Jaa]

This is a good read, worth more than Ford !

Meet Nikola, a $26 Billion Electric-Truck Maker With No Revenue (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-09/meet-nikola-a-26-billion-electric-truck-maker-with-no-revenue?srnd=premium-asia&sref=PQ13NBoe)

Sure enough 77k Robinhood (https://robintrack.net/symbol/NKLA) users holding.

[ratkin]

Have a feeling the rally is about to run out of steam, time for the next leg down.

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/time-humble-pie-stock-market-185432820.html

Humble pie time for the doom & gloom merchants.

Partly explains why markets kept roaring ahead as too many investors were too cautious, too long on cash and/or shorted the markets.

Now that they are putting cash back into the markets, will the courageous (some would call them fool hardy & amateurs) buyers of the stock in the last 2 months sell out, to lock in astronomical gains?

I know what I would be doing 😊

[workingdad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/time-humble-pie-stock-market-185432820.html

Humble pie time for the doom & gloom merchants.

Partly explains why markets kept roaring ahead as too many investors were too cautious, too long on cash and/or shorted the markets.

Now that they are putting cash back into the markets, will the courageous (some would call them fool hardy & amateurs) buyers of the stock in the last 2 months sell out, to lock in astronomical gains?

I know what I would be doing 😊

I struggle to understand why you feel compelled to put people with a differing opinion to yours down with derogatory statements like doom and gloom merchants.

No doubt this will fall on deaf ears but just try for a whole week to portray your views without such a tone. This post. Would be great without the one sentence I am referring to.

Oh and BTW, economic damage is yet to be fully understood as is the massive debt levels where at some stage, someone pays. I’m not doom and gloom on this, just a realist that believes GDP is based on producing rather than printing money. Markets disconnect at present will become more aligned, just a matter of when and how.

Well done and congrats to those that have played the recent gains well.

[bull....]

this made me laugh , talk from a newbie to the stockmarket


Warren Buffett is ‘an idiot,’ says investor who claims daytrading is ‘the easiest game I’ve ever played’
I’m the new breed. I’m the new generation. There’s nobody who can argue that Warren Buffett is better at the stock market than I am right now. I’m better than he is. That’s a fact.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-is-an-idiot-says-investor-who-claims-daytrading-is-the-easiest-game-ive-ever-played-2020-06-09?mod=home-page

[Balance]

I struggle to understand why you feel compelled to put people with a differing opinion to yours down with derogatory statements like doom and gloom merchants.

No doubt this will fall on deaf ears but just try for a whole week to portray your views without such a tone. This post. Would be great without the one sentence I am referring to.

Oh and BTW, economic damage is yet to be fully understood as is the massive debt levels where at some stage, someone pays. I’m not doom and gloom on this, just a realist that believes GDP is based on producing rather than printing money. Markets disconnect at present will become more aligned, just a matter of when and how.

Well done and congrats to those that have played the recent gains well.

Have explained before and I will explain again - doom & gloom merchant is not a deragatory term in financial markets. There are many a commentator out there who pride themselves as doom or gloom commentators (eg. Dr Faber).

Not my loss or problem if some posters do not want to read my posts - I get plenty of positive feedback via PM thanking me for my posts.

[Balance]

this made me laugh , talk from a newbie to the stockmarket


Warren Buffett is ‘an idiot,’ says investor who claims daytrading is ‘the easiest game I’ve ever played’
I’m the new breed. I’m the new generation. There’s nobody who can argue that Warren Buffett is better at the stock market than I am right now. I’m better than he is. That’s a fact.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-is-an-idiot-says-investor-who-claims-daytrading-is-the-easiest-game-ive-ever-played-2020-06-09?mod=home-page




Always herald a short term exuberance in the markets.

Be careful!

[Sideshow Bob]

Always herald a short term exuberance in the markets.

Be careful!

The old mantra.....

Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy.....

[BlackPeter]

The old mantra.....

Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy.....

Good point. CNN Fear & Greed Index today still sitting at 67% (i.e. moderate greed). Sure - could get worse, but I'd say already pretty greedy considering the economy is in a recession.

I feel the fear coming up ...

[Balance]

The old mantra.....

Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy.....

Saw exactly the same thing happened in 2000s during the dot-com boom & bust.

Daytraders at that time and the new generation of investors (ahem) talked about the new paradigm and how Warren Buffett was yesterday's man because he refused to invest in the dot-coms.

[Entrep]

This feels like the BTC bubble of 2017, could still run for a week or three though

[Hoop]

Saw exactly the same thing happened in 2000s during the dot-com boom & bust.

Daytraders at that time and the new generation of investors (ahem) talked about the new paradigm and how Warren Buffett was yesterday's man because he refused to invest in the dot-coms..
I remember that :D:D.. it gave me my first taste of trying to value non-asset cash burning digital companies over traditional bricks and mortar...I still have that after taste:p:p
Gosh it was fun back then those good ol days watching the "young turk" loud mouthers arses catching on fire :D.
I remember in NZ there were a very vocal group of investors/"experts" wanting Telecom (heavily weighted) removed from the NZSE40 because it was nearly singlehandedly depressing the index...strange really as they didn't seem to mind when it is was rising up in value ;)..I guess that what happens when a "rock solid" blue chip giant halves in price in 6 months (after April 2000) you tend to get crazy ideas and do crazy things..
Nothing changed much over the years,,still got crazy ideas and crazy things going on....Proves the point that its not different this time..eh..

[percy]

Have just about finished reading the following book;
A History of the Global Stock Market from Ancient Rome to Silicon Valley,by B.Mark Smith.
isbn.978 0 226 76404 7
Nothing much has changed over the years...lol.

[blackcap]

Have just about finished reading the following book;
A History of the Global Stock Market from Ancient Rome to Silicon Valley,by B.Mark Smith.
isbn.978 0 226 76404 7
Nothing much has changed over the years...lol.

Is it a good read? Worth recommending? Might have to do a library search for it if it is.

[percy]

Is it a good read? Worth recommending? Might have to do a library search for it if it is.

No not a great read.Friend lent me it.If your library has it, read it,but checking the prices when I googled the isbn, I would not recommend buying it.
Maybe best summed up,as history keeps repeating it's self,and attempts by Governments to prop up markets fail.

[blackcap]

No not a great read.Friend lent me it.If your library has it, read it,but checking the prices when I googled the isbn, I would not recommend buying it.
Maybe best summed up,as history keeps repeating it's self,and attempts by Governments to prop up markets fail.

Thanks, always a good reminder though. Will look in my library and see if they have a copy somewhere. Thanks Percy.

[percy]

Thanks, always a good reminder though. Will look in my library and see if they have a copy somewhere. Thanks Percy.

Most libraries are short of business/sharemarket type books.
Ask your library to request their acquisitions dept buys it.
Just quote the title,author and isbn I quoted.

[bull....]

Market gone wild: Penny stocks are up nearly 80% on average in the last week


Citadel Securities looked at the 29 stocks in the small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 with a share price less than $1. In the past five trading days through Monday, the group is up an average of 79% a piece

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/market-gone-wild-penny-stocks-are-up-nearly-80percent-on-average-in-the-last-week.html


Im not 100% convinced its a signal like dot com boom end as this time you have lock down all over the world and as is mentioned even on here there is no sports betting , casinos etc etc so a lot of the gambling inclined folks maybe just getting there fix in the market and you can do it all on line.

[bull....]

Around 75,000 investors have joined Sharesies since COVID-19 hit

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/105446/both-sharesies-and-investnow-hit-500-million-funds-under-management-mark

[kiwico]

Around 75,000 investors have joined Sharesies since COVID-19 hit

That helps explain all the 1 and 2 share trades when I sold some AIA this morning. ASB sends an email per trade and 19 turned up in my inbox for a relativity small reducing of my holding.

[sb9]

Getting cheaper by day...

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/105458/kiwibank-cuts-floating-mortgage-rate

Kiwibank is cutting its floating mortgage rate in a major move that will shake up the home loan market.
It has cut 100 basis points from its 4.40% rate to the new level of 3.40%.
At that level, it is a rate that is much more competitive with fixed rates.

[ynot]

Users of Robinhood, the US-based stock trading app, have bought more shares in Hertz over the past
three days than in any other listed US company, doubling bets in a week, according to data tracking
holdings on the platform.

[Traderx]

COVID-19 is far from over, new cases continue to hit record highs globally, and a lockdown based decline in NY is masking strong increases in many US states such as Arizona, California, especially those that have "opened up"

A decision to shut down for a second time will be far more difficult and psychologically damaging. Dark days ahead IMO. NZ is well placed but we should strongly resist temptation to ease border restrictions.

[bull....]

asx getting a thumping , doesnt look good tonight either

[King1212]

Come on bull......ramp it up....I m all cash up again!!!!

[Entrep]

VIX futures pumping

[ratkin]

About time the markets had reality check

[bull....]

Come on bull......ramp it up....I m all cash up again!!!!

your be able to buy your OCA back soon at what ya reckon 60c? lol

[bull....]

powell economic forecast wasnt good yesterday , but on a positive he didnt think stockmarket was a problem.

mnuchin saying they wont close down US again even if they get a second wave.


airlines , banks , hotels , cruiselines , retail reits , energy some of the hardest hit today. the ones most affected by covid in reality

[workingdad]

About time the markets had reality check

Maybe the printer ran out of ink at the fed?

[King1212]

U never know bull....so many newbie joined OCA club.....the fundies all cashed up already....so...if one sheep running to the cliff....the rest will follow

[Bjauck]

COVID-19 is far from over, new cases continue to hit record highs globally, and a lockdown based decline in NY is masking strong increases in many US states such as Arizona, California, especially those that have "opened up"

A decision to shut down for a second time will be far more difficult and psychologically damaging. Dark days ahead IMO. NZ is well placed but we should strongly resist temptation to ease border restrictions. BLM demonstrations will help ramp up the infection rate all over the USA and UK. Regions there still had R figures over 1.

[bull....]

BLM demonstrations will help ramp up the infection rate all over the USA and UK. Regions there still had R figures over 1.

also demonstrations in AUS will ramp up there community transmission. transtasman bubble should not be going ahead too soon

[Quantitative Easing]

I think markets peaked, will probably see the 2nd sell off now. Might get close to retesting the levels in March.

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/time-humble-pie-stock-market-185432820.html

Humble pie time for the doom & gloom merchants.

Partly explains why markets kept roaring ahead as too many investors were too cautious, too long on cash and/or shorted the markets.

Now that they are putting cash back into the markets, will the courageous (some would call them fool hardy & amateurs) buyers of the stock in the last 2 months sell out, to lock in astronomical gains?

I know what I would be doing ��

And here comes the big 'W' as they say in Australia? :t_up:

[winner69]

Kroger finished UP on S&P500 today ...all others DOWN

[bull....]

And here comes the big 'W' as they say in Australia? :t_up:

what happened to dont fight the fed

[Balance]

what happened to dont fight the fed

Did you read what the Feds said yesterday?

And yes, never fight the Feds. Never!

[arc]

Looks like lots of people have turned into "day traders".. or perhaps "20 day traders."

[bull....]

Looks like lots of people have turned into "day traders".. or perhaps "20 day traders."

think theres a lot of them hiding in the closet on this site , but woont admit it

[arc]

think theres a lot of them hiding in the closet on this site , but woont admit it

I think it may also have caught the "bigger" traders by surprise. Most people were expecting a larger and longer decline... and the irrational buy-buy-buy from the newbs has disrupted some plans

[King1212]

Long term my arse.....so long the newbies have an access to online flat form.....they will got chicken out n sell...so expecting worse to come....

Today is Friday......not sure what happen at Dow tmrw trading

Sell...sell..sell

[bull....]

I think it may also have caught the "bigger" traders by surprise. Most people were expecting a larger and longer decline... and the irrational buy-buy-buy from the newbs has disrupted some plans

for sure the newbs took over the market. but there getting a lesson today and last night

[Balance]

for sure the newbs took over the market. but there getting a lesson today and last night

40% up and 10% down.

Good lesson & experience for the next round?

[Cadalac123]

This type of volatility is a godsend and i'm not sure why anyone would be upset about the markets crashing - you can actually learn a lot, sure maybe lose some paper gains but overall it'll be positive long-term depending on how you deal with it

[Lorne Ranger]

Video showing perfectly the post COVID recovery cycle - gains and losses and mostly hope.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNaXdLWt17A

[Balance]

This type of volatility is a godsend and i'm not sure why anyone would be upset about the markets crashing - you can actually learn a lot, sure maybe lose some paper gains but overall it'll be positive long-term depending on how you deal with it

Great for traders but not so good for the faint hearted and those with short term investment horizon.

I genuinely hope that the tens of thousands of new investors attracted to the market during the lockdown are learning how to invest and will stay around.