Black Monday

[nztx]

it was china that saved the world after the GFC and created the boom afterwards not the fed. china is not going to save the world this time

Aren't they ? .. they're back open & it looks like they're sure going to try, even if they still have the usual trove of dead dying & gone
sitting on the books in their financial system... they may not like the US much but are still buying primary & investing (check PGG & QEX)

[Balance]

Aren't they ? .. they're back open & it looks like they're sure going to try, even if they still have the usual trove of dead dying & gone
sitting on the books in their financial system... they may not like the US much but are still buying primary & investing (check PGG & QEX)

Western commentators (economists, media and politicians) still have little idea about why China keeps surprising them with its economic ability to grow resiliently over the last 30 years.

Simplistically, the average Chinese saves 40c out of every $1 earned vs the average Westerner spending $1.50 for every $1 earned. And they are prepared to tighten their belts when things get tough.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-live-coverage-thousands-pack-gold-coast-lookout-for-sunset/live-coverage/68ee83f90dcd4d94533c0aa6846cd979

Unprecedented - NZ PM invited to discuss TransTasman bubble with Australian cabinet.

Bring it on! 💪

[Balance]

Didn't pick you as a day trader Balance, particularly when you seem to post macro views. i guess you take whatever wins you can in this environment

Which part of de-coupling from the US do you read as a day trading comment?

You are free to speak for yourself (and bull...) but don't even attempt to try to speak for others with both your day trading mindset.


NZX closes in positive territory - poor effort on your part, bull...

Aren’t you pleased though, bull... about the de-coupling of NZX (& ASX) from the US market and the incoherent rantings of the red haired demented circus clown Trump?

TransTasman travel bubble next - hopefully we can all watch the badly hit tourism & hospitality sector recover.

[bull....]

Aren't they ? .. they're back open & it looks like they're sure going to try, even if they still have the usual trove of dead dying & gone
sitting on the books in their financial system... they may not like the US much but are still buying primary & investing (check PGG & QEX)

back in 2007 china gdp was 15% it was 6% when the virus hit , it is considerably lower now so unless they are going to go the way of the usa with massive money printing etc they are just not as big growth engine as before when they propped up the world in 2001 and 2007

[bull....]

NZX closes in positive territory - poor effort on your part, bull...

Aren’t you pleased though, bull... about the de-coupling of NZX (& ASX) from the US market and the incoherent rantings of the red haired demented circus clown Trump?獵

TransTasman travel bubble next - hopefully we can all watch the badly hit tourism & hospitality sector recover. 

nzx and asx bounced yesterday from oversold levels intraday , nothing spooky about that day traders acting on technicals. As for the transtasman bubble it will only increase our risk of importing the virus again and anyway just how many people are really going to spend thousands of dollars travelling in this environment. probably just a lot of wishful thinking.

[workingdad]

Markets a bit shaky last few trading days, bull market taking a breather or bear taking a reality check?

[Balance]

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/04/sports/04reuters-health-coronavirus-australia-newzealand-explainer.html

And NZ/Oz travel bubble gathers global attention and exuberant coverage by the international media.

No doubt getting the attention of international fund managers & investors as well.

All good stuff! 👍👍👍

[sb9]

Chinese companies seem to be on the hunt for bargain depressed assets as witnessed in them building a stake by chinese tech giant Tencent of 5% in APT (Afterpay) across ASX and PGW here by BAIC....what more to come??

Listening to our good ole Winston on Q+A last night, he did mention that they're working at fast pace on a legislation to stop any opportunistic acquisitions of NZ companies by foreign entities, similar to what AUS govt has done recently.

[winner69]

Chinese companies seem to be on the hunt for bargain depressed assets as witnessed in them building a stake by chinese tech giant Tencent of 5% in APT (Afterpay) across ASX and PGW here by BAIC....what more to come??

Listening to our good ole Winston on Q+A last night, he did mention that they're working at fast pace on a legislation to stop any opportunistic acquisitions of NZ companies by foreign entities, similar to what AUS govt has done recently.

Hope it’s rushed through while Winnie has some clout

Otherwise as the other parties are endeared to China it’ll never happen.

[Balance]

Hey Balance, I've been a bit stretched for time lately, but had skimmed some of your posts regarding negative interest rates around the world. Was that negative nominal rates? What countries is that applying to? Cheers in advance. I note, that I think Adrian Orr mentioned it may happen in NZ too (but again, I think that was just from skimming a headline - so not sure if I interpreted correctly).

Countries currently with negative interest rates - Japan, Germany, ECB, Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland. They are nominal interest rates. If inflation is factored in, then some countries with zero or close to zero interest rates (eg. US, Australia, Spain, Italy and NZ for that matter) are already in real negative interest rates territory.

Adrian Orr has mentioned as a possibility while Westpac Bank predicts it will happen in NZ by year end.

Think of what that means to the billions of dollars in bank deposits in NZ?

As someone

[Cyclical]

If inflation is factored in, then some countries with zero or close to zero interest rates (eg. US, Australia, Spain, Italy and NZ for that matter) are already in real negative interest rates territory.

Of course we could be in for a period of deflation...

[Balance]

Chinese companies seem to be on the hunt for bargain depressed assets as witnessed in them building a stake by chinese tech giant Tencent of 5% in APT (Afterpay) across ASX and PGW here by BAIC....what more to come??

Listening to our good ole Winston on Q+A last night, he did mention that they're working at fast pace on a legislation to stop any opportunistic acquisitions of NZ companies by foreign entities, similar to what AUS govt has done recently.

Winston & Australia are hoping the Chinese will move in to rescue their distressed and failed companies?

I certainly would not rate PGW at $2.75 as bargain depressed assets!

And as the Chinese historically typically buys property, the foreign ban and OIA requirement means that they cannot already.

So WTH is Winston on about? Politicking to his senile and ignorant electoral base as per usual.

[Balance]

Of course we could be in for a period of deflation...

True but :

1. Negative interest rates have been around since 2016,

2. Inflation have been benign but still positive for the countries with negative interest rates.

In any case, the issue is how depositors will react when they are faced with having to pay banks for the privilege of depositing money with them!

What will they do with their money instead?

[see weed]

Western commentators (economists, media and politicians) still have little idea about why China keeps surprising them with its economic ability to grow resiliently over the last 30 years.

Simplistically, the average Chinese saves 40c out of every $1 earned vs the average Westerner spending $1.50 for every $1 earned. And they are prepared to tighten their belts when things get tough.
I must have a bit of Chinese in me. My partner and I, from 1995 two 1997 saved $100,000 in two years. Our combined income was approx $60,000 per year. And we had about 90% deposit on the house we bought in 1997 for 340k which has gone up about 500% since then:cool:.

[Balance]

I must have a bit of Chinese in me. My partner and I, from 1995 two 1997 saved $100,000 in two years. Our combined income was approx $60,000 per year. And we had about 90% deposit on the house we bought in 1997 for 340k which has gone up about 500% since then:cool:.

Well done, see weed!

You must look back with huge pride at the sacrifices you made then to save hard and build up your asset & wealth base. 💪

Can’t help but compare and contrast with the latte & avocado crowd these days who moan and whinge about not been able to go on holidays whenever they want, drive the latest SUVs etc etc. 🤬

[Cyclical]

So WTH is Winston on about? Politicking to his senile and ignorant electoral base as per usual.

Yep, and it's going to get more painful in the coming months. Usual scaremongering BS to appeal to the 5%. As much as I can't stand him and Jonesy, I think I would be slightly happier with another Labour/NZF coalition than a Labour landslide.

[BigBob]

In any case, the issue is how depositors will react when they are faced with having to pay banks for the privilege of depositing money with them!

What will they do with their money instead?

Don't forget that it is not necessarily all savers that are affected. Different banks have different rules...

In Denmark for example, negative nominal rates do not apply to retail customers in some banks, in some banks it is for balances over a certain amount (normally well above $100k) and in some banks certain types of accounts are exempt...

[BWH]

Yep, and it's going to get more painful in the coming months. Usual scaremongering BS to appeal to the 5%. As much as I can't stand him and Jonesy, I think I would be slightly happier with another Labour/NZF coalition than a Labour landslide.

Or worse, a Labour/Green coalition! If nothing else Winston has been a useful handbrake to some of their loonier ideas.

[Bjauck]

Hope it’s rushed through while Winnie has some clout

Otherwise as the other parties are endeared to China it’ll never happen. Yep it may be a question of last company remaining on the NZX, please turn off the light.

[Balance]

Yep it may be a question of last company remaining on the NZX, please turn off the light.

Garbage. Unadulterated garbage.

[Cyclical]

If nothing else Winston has been a useful handbrake to some of their loonier ideas.

Agreed. And they've proven their credibility by getting net immigration down to 10k PA...wait...

[Balance]

Agreed. And they've proven their credibility by getting net immigration down to 10k PA...wait...

Good one! 👍

[dobby41]

I had to check which thread I was in - this isn't the Labour-NZ-First-Government thread.

[Cyclical]

I had to check which thread I was in - this isn't the Labour-NZ-First-Government thread.

It's not Monday, so we can deviate from topic a little...

[moka]

Hey Balance, I've been a bit stretched for time lately, but had skimmed some of your posts regarding negative interest rates around the world. Was that negative nominal rates? What countries is that applying to? Cheers in advance. I note, that I think Adrian Orr mentioned it may happen in NZ too (but again, I think that was just from skimming a headline - so not sure if I interpreted correctly).
Adrian Orr appeared before the Epidemic Response Committee on 16 April. His interview starts on page 31. Negative interest rates are on hold for 12 months because there are technical difficulties for banks to do them.

He said “negative interest rates are on hold for 12 months, and we’ll do the quantitative easing. But they’re not off the table. Why 12 months? Because that gave the market sufficient certainty that the rates are going to stay where they are, and it gave the banks sufficient certainty that they had a time period over which they could prepare themselves, if we need to go down that path.”

“We ruled out the negative OCR first up because the banks themselves were so busy dealing with the various issues we’ve just finished talking about that we removed so much of our regulatory work with them; we put it all on hold; we said, “Don’t worry about your systems getting system ready for accepting the negative interest rates.”—some banks can; some can’t.”

Hansard Transcript - Epidemic Response Committee 16 April 2020 (https://www.parliament.nz/media/6375/hansard-transcript-epidemic-response-committee-16-april-2020.docx)(docx 97KB)

[Cyclical]

Adrian Orr appeared before the Epidemic Response Committee on 16 April. His interview starts on page 31. Negative interest rates are on hold for 12 months because there are technical difficulties for banks to do them.

He said “negative interest rates are on hold for 12 months, and we’ll do the quantitative easing. But they’re not off the table. Why 12 months? Because that gave the market sufficient certainty that the rates are going to stay where they are, and it gave the banks sufficient certainty that they had a time period over which they could prepare themselves, if we need to go down that path.”

“We ruled out the negative OCR first up because the banks themselves were so busy dealing with the various issues we’ve just finished talking about that we removed so much of our regulatory work with them; we put it all on hold; we said, “Don’t worry about your systems getting system ready for accepting the negative interest rates.”—some banks can; some can’t.”

Hansard Transcript - Epidemic Response Committee 16 April 2020 (https://www.parliament.nz/media/6375/hansard-transcript-epidemic-response-committee-16-april-2020.docx)(docx 97KB)

It's probably a bit like dealing with Y2K for some banking systems. Great for the IT companies.

[bull....]

NZX closes in positive territory - poor effort on your part, bull...

Aren’t you pleased though, bull... about the de-coupling of NZX (& ASX) from the US market and the incoherent rantings of the red haired demented circus clown Trump?獵

TransTasman travel bubble next - hopefully we can all watch the badly hit tourism & hospitality sector recover. 

nzx isnt decoupling from the US markets , correlation is currently running at 95% so we are very much in lock step with the USA

[bull....]

The coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, over four months ago has since mutated and the new, dominant strain spreading across the U.S. appears to be even more contagious

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-coronavirus-mutated-and-appears-to-be-more-contagious-now-new-study-finds.html

USA strategy seems to be business first , lives second so be interesting to see in months ahead if this strategy pays off. if not i guess the market will tank

[Balance]

An up day on the Dow so the doomsday merchants (as usual) have gone into hiding - waiting for a down day to post their end of the world messages.

Which is a pity, really - because extreme caution is required in the economies and markets we are in now and in the months ahead.

And that’s where perspective is required - some positives thoughts on the truly dark down days, and some negatives thoughts on the truly exuberant up days.

A good article to put the huge market bounces since the lows in March in perspective.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-u-stock-bounce-stokes-183250515.html

[Balance]

nzx isnt decoupling from the US markets , correlation is currently running at 95% so we are very much in lock step with the USA

Saudi Arabia, remember?

You were just about ****ting in your pants about how the fall in that market was a harbinger of a terrible Monday on markets.

[bull....]

Saudi Arabia, remember?

You were just about ****ting in your pants about how the fall in that market was a harbinger of a terrible Monday on markets.

lol utter rubbish anyway so your be thinking its if saudi arabia goes up 7% that we should be rally scared

[Balance]

lol utter rubbish anyway so your be thinking its if saudi arabia goes up 7% that we should be rally scared


Middle East markets provided a taste (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/saudi-stocks-slump-as-minister-warns-of-painful-measures-ahead) Sunday of what may be in store for the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index tumbled 7.4%

Bad Start to May Is a Sign of Things to Come for Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/bad-start-to-may-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-for-global-markets?srnd=premium-asia

Growing senile, bull...?

[bull....]

Growing senile, bull...?

i was right. futures markets opened well down monday before rebounding on oversold indicators. smart traders would have acted

[Balance]

i was right. futures markets opened well down monday before rebounding on oversold indicators. smart traders would have acted

After your Saudi Arabia rant? Garbage. Pure unadulterated garbage.

Anyway, time to put you on Ignore - you add little value as far as I am concerned.

Enjoy!

[bull....]

After your Saudi Arabia rant? Garbage. Pure unadulterated garbage.

Anyway, time to put you on Ignore - you add little value as far as I am concerned.

Enjoy!

lol thats because your not a trader and you dont understand trading ..... your only faith is money printing and your love of china as taken from your continued slagging of the usa

[Balance]

The nuclear option in channeling money into the NZ economy :

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300005766/coronavirus-a-universal-basic-income-would-help-us-put-economy-back-together

Universal basic income for everyone (suggestion - $250 pw for everyone from 18 years - 65 years) to NZers to reflate the economy.

Done in conjunction with an increase in the marginal tax rate (say, from 33% to 45%), this will suit Labour - means most of the $250 pw will be retained by those below the average wage while those on higher incomes will be neutral.

[bull....]

Major law firm Simpson Grierson says it has repaid $2.3 million in wage subsidies
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12329899

just goes to show everyone is on the money train if they can get away with it , just like the business loan scheme to zombie companies or companies who dont even need it. to be paid back by higher taxes.
maybe ill claim it for my share trading better than a margin loan lol .

[Entrep]

11495

first bear market that goes up if you believe some of the reckless buyers here

[Leftfield]

11495

first bear market that goes up if you believe some of the reckless buyers here

Useful chart. Thanks for posting.

[winner69]

PM says economy in good shape pre lockdown

Unemployment still low at 4.2% ......net rise in employment

All good ...no worries

[bull....]

China accuses US of trying to deflect coronavirus blame after call for Taiwan to be given World Health Organisation role


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3082603/china-accuses-us-trying-deflect-coronavirus-blame-after-call

ramping things up , futures up and down all over the place today

[nztx]

PM says economy in good shape pre lockdown

Unemployment still low at 4.2% ......net rise in employment

All good ...no worries

Pre-Lock Down is one thing

Post-Lock down may & likely definitely will be a completely different story

that shouldn't surprise most either ..

[winner69]

Pre-Lock Down is one thing

Post-Lock down may & likely definitely will be a completely different story

that shouldn't surprise most either ..

But the PM looked and sounded pretty cock a hoop today

We don’t want to get too pessimistic and down in the dumps do we.

[nztx]

But the PM looked and sounded pretty cock a hoop today

We don’t want to get too pessimistic and down in the dumps do we.


Another brave face & spinning the BS on what is no longer .. most probably with facial expressions suggesting Now is otherwise

Okay we've seen that on numerous occasions before from Labour's 9th Floor #1 spinner ..

[Joshuatree]

Just what are you trying to say nztx.Maybe stop revolving and try again, what are you trying to say?

[bull....]

ASIC warns of risks to individual investors


The average daily turnover for brokers increased from $1.6 billion in the benchmark period to $3.3 billion.
New trading accounts were created at a rate 3.4 times higher than during the benchmark period, and more than 142,000 dormant accounts that had not traded in the previous six months started trading again

"In the week of 16-22 March 2020, for example, retail clients' net losses from trading CFDs were $234 million for a sample of 12 CFD providers

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-06/asx-falls-us-shares-rise-despite-travel-industry-carnage/12218706?section=business

[winner69]

Just what are you trying to say nztx.Maybe stop revolving and try again, what are you trying to say?


Maybe he’s saying in a round about way that our PM Is one of the best political communicators on the planet.... and doesn’t like that

[winner69]

ASIC warns of risks to individual investors


The average daily turnover for brokers increased from $1.6 billion in the benchmark period to $3.3 billion.
New trading accounts were created at a rate 3.4 times higher than during the benchmark period, and more than 142,000 dormant accounts that had not traded in the previous six months started trading again

"In the week of 16-22 March 2020, for example, retail clients' net losses from trading CFDs were $234 million for a sample of 12 CFD providers

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-06/asx-falls-us-shares-rise-despite-travel-industry-carnage/12218706?section=business






Hope they stay around ...keeping the markets up I reckon

Probably TAB turnover down

[jonu]

Maybe he’s saying in a round about way that our PM Is one of the best political communicators on the planet.... and doesn’t like that

Let me alter one word in that quote "...best political bullsh***ers on the planet".

Much more accurate IMHO.

[nztx]

Maybe he’s saying in a round about way that our PM Is one of the best political communicators on the planet.... and doesn’t like that

Maybe the Propaganda Section are having a hard job finding anything else currently positive arising from Labour's orchestrated 'missed the right time' Disaster and have the blinkers on with reality of the NOW

The next reporting presumably from Stats will make very dark reading & reporting indeed when effects of Lock Down come through, as if rising unemployment, permanent closures etc hitting the media are not enough prelude to what is impending.

Try telling "It was sound before ..." to those whose Jobs, Businesses etc have become deceased & well buried in the aftermath ...


IMO .. not sure whether today's effort is "Fake News" or "Flakey News" just to allow #1 Spinner to open her trap ..

[Bing]

Which country would you rather be living in right now? USA? Italy? Russia? China? UK? France? Brazil?
I thank my lucky stars I am living in NZ.

[Sir Ten]

Which country would you rather be living in right now? USA? Italy? Russia? China? UK? France? Brazil?
I thank my lucky stars I am living in NZ.

I realise the question is rhetorical and intended to make us appreciate our situation relative to others, but I find them overly simplistic and defeatist... sure, almost everyone on this forum would prefer to be living in NZ at the moment... but shouldn't we be striving for the most optimal response to Covid, regardless of how poor or unfortunate other countries' responses have been?

My health and economic expectations of the NZ Government are very high - they have been blessed with an extremely favorable starting point by virtue of (for example) our geographic moat, low population density and lower proportion of older/vulnerable citizens.

[arc]

I gather that those decrying Labour would rather have had National in place and kept all businesses open.

No lockdown:
Sweden death rate of 27.2 per 100,000 people (and still rising as of today)

Late lockdown:
Italy 45 per 100,000
Spain 51 per 100,000

USA: 21 and still climbing, lock-unlock-partial lock- free america and lets party, the virus is just a conspiracy...

Lockdown applied:
Denmark 8.5 per 100,000
Finland 4.35 per 100,000
Norway 4.03 per 100,000
Czech republic 2 per 100,000

Lockdown applied: geographic location and global news a benefit to the country
NZ 0.4 per 100,000

So if National was in power and would have been happy to keep businesses open like USA, Sweden, it says a lot about them and the people who would support that attitude.

In reality you/we/us have no idea what National would have done, its all just hypothetical conjecture. The same would of course apply in reverse, all just hot air.

Either we work together or infighting will eventually lead to similar outcomes as usa.

[Joshuatree]

Maybe the Propaganda Section are having a hard job finding anything else currently positive arising from Labour's orchestrated 'missed the right time' Disaster and have the blinkers on with reality of the NOW

The next reporting presumably from Stats will make very dark reading & reporting indeed when effects of Lock Down come through, as if rising unemployment, permanent closures etc hitting the media are not enough prelude to what is impending.

Try telling "It was sound before ..." to those whose Jobs, Businesses etc have become deceased & well buried in the aftermath ...


IMO .. not sure whether today's effort is "Fake News" or "Flakey News" just to allow #1 Spinner to open her trap ..

Wow you are the best whirling dervish ive seen for a while, who you gonna call, Trumpy?

[nztx]

Wow you are the best whirling dervish ive seen for a while, who you gonna call, Trumpy?


Is that the best you can do -- when Govt's back office spinners obviously have precious little more positive current stuff for #1 to spin her mouthpiece on ? ;)

[Balance]

I gather that those decrying Labour would rather have had National in place and kept all businesses open.

No lockdown:
Sweden death rate of 27.2 per 100,000 people (and still rising as of today)

Late lockdown:
Italy 45 per 100,000
Spain 51 per 100,000

USA: 21 and still climbing, lock-unlock-partial lock- free america and lets party, the virus is just a conspiracy...

Lockdown applied:
Denmark 8.5 per 100,000
Finland 4.35 per 100,000
Norway 4.03 per 100,000
Czech republic 2 per 100,000

Lockdown applied: geographic location and global news a benefit to the country
NZ 0.4 per 100,000

So if National was in power and would have been happy to keep businesses open like USA, Sweden, it says a lot about them and the people who would support that attitude.

In reality you/we/us have no idea what National would have done, its all just hypothetical conjecture. The same would of course apply in reverse, all just hot air.

Either we work together or infighting will eventually lead to similar outcomes as usa.

Not everything has to be a loaded political preference, arc.

How about putting up numbers for Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong & South Korea?

Why does NZ have to be compared with the worse rather than the best?

We can but improve by comparing with the best, not the worse.

[nztx]

I gather that those decrying Labour would rather have had National in place and kept all businesses open.

No lockdown:
Sweden death rate of 27.2 per 100,000 people (and still rising as of today)

Late lockdown:
Italy 45 per 100,000
Spain 51 per 100,000

USA: 21 and still climbing, lock-unlock-partial lock- free america and lets party, the virus is just a conspiracy...

Lockdown applied:
Denmark 8.5 per 100,000
Finland 4.35 per 100,000
Norway 4.03 per 100,000
Czech republic 2 per 100,000

Lockdown applied: geographic location and global news a benefit to the country
NZ 0.4 per 100,000

So if National was in power and would have been happy to keep businesses open like USA, Sweden, it says a lot about them and the people who would support that attitude.

In reality you/we/us have no idea what National would have done, its all just hypothetical conjecture. The same would of course apply in reverse, all just hot air.

Either we work together or infighting will eventually lead to similar outcomes as usa.


The obvious - Taiwan seems to have been missed out of your posting ..

[winner69]

Is that the best you can do -- when Govt's back office spinners obviously have precious little more positive current stuff for #1 to spin her mouthpiece on ? ;)

Whose really running the country tx - like whose pulling the puppet strings?

[JBmurc]

The obvious - Taiwan seems to have been missed out of your posting ..

And Vietnam with 90mill people neighbouring border with China but far fewer cases than here 0 deaths

[JBmurc]

Which country would you rather be living in right now? USA? Italy? Russia? China? UK? France? Brazil?
I thank my lucky stars I am living in NZ.

Vietnam 0 deaths

[nztx]

Whose really running the country tx - like whose pulling the puppet strings?


I don't know - could it be a staffer in the NZ 1st back office ?

[Bing]

I realise the question is rhetorical and intended to make us appreciate our situation relative to others, but I find them overly simplistic and defeatist... sure, almost everyone on this forum would prefer to be living in NZ at the moment... but shouldn't we be striving for the most optimal response to Covid, regardless of how poor or unfortunate other countries' responses have been?

My health and economic expectations of the NZ Government are very high - they have been blessed with an extremely favorable starting point by virtue of (for example) our geographic moat, low population density and lower proportion of older/vulnerable citizens.

Nothing wrong with having high expectations. So you should. My comment was a reaction to the type of language being used suggesting that "Cindy" is totally incompetent and has mismanaged the crisis.

However everyone seems to now agree that NZ should be compared with the very best so all good.

[Bing]

Vietnam 0 deaths

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/06/vietnam-crushed-the-coronavirus-outbreak-but-now-faces-severe-economic-test

"Quarantining tens of thousands in military-style camps"

Thanks. Still prefer NZ.

[Joshuatree]

I gather that those decrying Labour would rather have had National in place and kept all businesses open.

No lockdown:
Sweden death rate of 27.2 per 100,000 people (and still rising as of today)

Late lockdown:
Italy 45 per 100,000
Spain 51 per 100,000

USA: 21 and still climbing, lock-unlock-partial lock- free america and lets party, the virus is just a conspiracy...

Lockdown applied:
Denmark 8.5 per 100,000
Finland 4.35 per 100,000
Norway 4.03 per 100,000
Czech republic 2 per 100,000

Lockdown applied: geographic location and global news a benefit to the country
NZ 0.4 per 100,000

So if National was in power and would have been happy to keep businesses open like USA, Sweden, it says a lot about them and the people who would support that attitude.

In reality you/we/us have no idea what National would have done, its all just hypothetical conjecture. The same would of course apply in reverse, all just hot air.

Either we work together or infighting will eventually lead to similar outcomes as usa.


Thank you Arc, so well put.In a nutshell............

Fred Dagg - We Don't Know How Lucky We Are (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYvMeT2GC14)

[Balance]

Thank you Arc, so well put.In a nutshell............

Fred Dagg - We Don't Know How Lucky We Are (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYvMeT2GC14)

And with that kind of attitude, it’s no wonder the ABs lost the RWC.

[Joshuatree]

Didnt they beat Sth Afica earlier?

[bull....]

Hope they stay around ...keeping the markets up I reckon

Probably TAB turnover down

nzx turnover has doubled like the asx and in fact many markets around the world.
its easy to assume the increase in turnover is punters from sports betting etc getting there fix in the stockmarket. the asx report said average trade time of the newbies was 0.9 less than a day so reinforces the view. Be interesting if all the increased turnover ( and buying) disappears once sports betting etc resumes

[Entrep]

Us shares more expensive than dec 2007 11504

[bull....]

Us shares more expensive than dec 2007 11504

yep market factoring in a v recovery still , short term trading is my strategy with a big chuck of cash for when the real bargains come

[Joshuatree]

Hows the trading going Bull? Over 1 and 3 months say, whats your return?

[dobby41]

Nothing wrong with having high expectations. So you should. My comment was a reaction to the type of language being used suggesting that "Cindy" is totally incompetent and has mismanaged the crisis.

However everyone seems to now agree that NZ should be compared with the very best so all good.

Compared in hindsight - so easy to say what we should have done.
Around the world there have been many approaches and many outcomes.
There have been quite dis-similar outcomes for similar approachesdue to many factors so I can't be assumed that if you did x you get y because another country got that.

Also, it isn't over yet. We are yet to get to the end so we don't know if there is another peak in many countries (ours included) or what the ultimate economic outcome will be.
The shows not over until the fat lady sings.

[dabsman]

And Vietnam with 90mill people neighbouring border with China but far fewer cases than here 0 deaths

Reported deaths is the key. I've been there a few times and it is impossible they have no deaths. Communism looking after it's people? I dont think so. A friend teaches English in Hanoi and they took over an apartment block for isolation of COVID patients close to her. Apparently they had these isolation buildings all over the city. You think not one oldie caught it and didnt make it? You think they will have been tested?

[Balance]

Compared in hindsight - so easy to say what we should have done.
Around the world there have been many approaches and many outcomes.
There have been quite dis-similar outcomes for similar approachesdue to many factors so I can't be assumed that if you did x you get y because another country got that.

Also, it isn't over yet. We are yet to get to the end so we don't know if there is another peak in many countries (ours included) or what the ultimate economic outcome will be.
The shows not over until the fat lady sings.

Precisely why NZ needs to look at the countries who are doing better than NZ in containing the outbreak, so that we learn & apply the lessons - then there can be a better balance between physical health & economic health.

Currently NZ lockdown is decimating whole industries and livelihoods with the ‘strictest’ lockdown in the world when there is really no need.

The costs of unemployment is going to be horrendous in future - there will be health problems (mental & physical) which NZ is poorly placed to tackle. Slogans of ‘Being kind and ‘save’ lives’ are not going to cut it.

[bull....]

Hows the trading going Bull? Over 1 and 3 months say, whats your return?

i was out of the market for stocks feb/march but april was very good. im now out of stocks again waiting for the next bargain round weather thats stocks or property or what ever thats what a big cash position gives you the flexibility to pick up bargains as the downturn rolls but still nimble enough to make a good return.

some of the stocks i was quite vocal on during march oca, hlg did very well lol

[Joshuatree]

Good on you you're a rare breed. I have read that 95 % of traders fail and like picking horses only talk about the winners.

Sometimes i think we should have a traders thread so some folks dont get their investing wires crossed and vice versa. Shall we start one, any interest or a fizzer?

[winner69]

I don't know - could it be a staffer in the NZ 1st back office ?

Tx .... the PM does have somebody like a Cummings or Kunkel leading her doesn’t she?

Question then whose behind the likes of Cummings and Kunkel

[Balance]

Tx .... the PM does have somebody like a Cummings or Kunkel leading her doesn’t she?

Question then whose behind the likes of Cummings and Kunkel

She shall continue to remain nameless? 🤫

[bull....]

Good on you you're a rare breed. I have read that 95 % of traders fail and like picking horses only talk about the winners.

Sometimes i think we should have a traders thread so some folks dont get their investing wires crossed and vice versa. Shall we start one, any interest or a fizzer?

so true , my son thinks i lose all the time because i keep going on about my losses all the time at home , doesnt realise im just telling my wife about how i could have done the bad trades better in hinsight. its all about money management , more winners than losers and better average win to average loss. sort like how the casinos operate.
most people on this site are long term investors it looks like , they get upset when i flick between buy and sell sentiment lol

[Joshuatree]

Nothing wrong with having high expectations. So you should. My comment was a reaction to the type of language being used suggesting that "Cindy" is totally incompetent and has mismanaged the crisis.

However everyone seems to now agree that NZ should be compared with the very best so all good.

Aint that the truth ;):t_up:

[kiora]

Compared in hindsight - so easy to say what we should have done.
Around the world there have been many approaches and many outcomes.
There have been quite dis-similar outcomes for similar approachesdue to many factors so I can't be assumed that if you did x you get y because another country got that.

Also, it isn't over yet. We are yet to get to the end so we don't know if there is another peak in many countries (ours included) or what the ultimate economic outcome will be.
The shows not over until the fat lady sings.

The fat lady had better sing very loudly to kill the other 6 Corona virus strains in the bat cave waiting to jump on another unsuspecting human host.
The world dealt with Ebola & SARS pretty well.
Zoonoses we always have and always will be with us.
It is how we deal with them that is important
Hope we don't get caught like Cr David Benson-Pope

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/dcc/cleaning-councillor-caught-pants-down

[bull....]

Billionaire Sam Zell, who earned his nickname 'the Grave Dancer' buying up troubled real estate in the 1970s, said the coronavirus pandemic will leave the same kind of impact on the economy and society as the Great Depression 80 years ago, with long-lasting changes in human behaviour that imperil many business models.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/grave-dancer-sees-economy-permanently-scarred-by-pandemic-20200506-p54q8a.html

[bull....]

we had some pre lim employment figures last night ahead of the big one on sat morning nz time

ADP says 20.2 million private-sector jobs lost in April amid coronavirus crisis
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/adp-says-202-million-private-sector-jobs-lost-in-april-during-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-05-06

[Balance]

I gather that those decrying Labour would rather have had National in place and kept all businesses open.

No lockdown:
Sweden death rate of 27.2 per 100,000 people (and still rising as of today)

Late lockdown:
Italy 45 per 100,000
Spain 51 per 100,000

USA: 21 and still climbing, lock-unlock-partial lock- free america and lets party, the virus is just a conspiracy...

Lockdown applied:
Denmark 8.5 per 100,000
Finland 4.35 per 100,000
Norway 4.03 per 100,000
Czech republic 2 per 100,000

Lockdown applied: geographic location and global news a benefit to the country
NZ 0.4 per 100,000

So if National was in power and would have been happy to keep businesses open like USA, Sweden, it says a lot about them and the people who would support that attitude.



Frankly, rather disappointed that you, arc, did not complete the comparison when requested to disclose the full picture of how NZ is doing - since you have the data set.

We are doing well but not as well as we are led to believe.

For completeness, I have done it and it shows (per 100,000):

Deaths
Taiwan 0.03
Hong Kong 0.05
Australia 0.39
New Zealand 0.43
Japan 0.45
South Korea 0.50

Infected:
Taiwan 1.8
Hong Kong 13.9
Australia 27.2
New Zealand 30.5
Japan 12.3
South Korea 21.1

And we know that Taiwan, Hong Kong and Australia have not had to close down the economies to the extent that NZ has, to achieve BETTER results than NZ.

And it has nothing to do with whether it's National or Labour who is in power - it's about doing better than we have done.

What can we learn from them and do even better than we have.

Lets' raise our sight higher, shall we - rather than be forever comparing ourselves with the worse rather than the best.

[RTM]

Good on you you're a rare breed. I have read that 95 % of traders fail and like picking horses only talk about the winners.

Sometimes i think we should have a traders thread so some folks dont get their investing wires crossed and vice versa. Shall we start one, any interest or a fizzer?

A completely separate website and please don’t tell me it’s name might work !

[Joshuatree]

There are plenty of traders on here being shareTRADER but also plenty of Investors. Same on Hot Copper where they have short term trading and day traders thread for traders.

[Balance]

There are plenty of traders on here being shareTRADER but also plenty of Investors. Same on Hot Copper where they have short term trading and day traders thread for traders.

It's all a matter of disclosure - great to have traders who provide liquidity and great to have investors who provide long term stability and sustainable performances on the market.

The ones who ramp up and down are obviously traders or market manipulators and it is up to posters and investors to know who they are - and treat their postings accordingly.

Garbage IN, Garbage OUT.

[Balance]

I love looking at data as much as anyone, but I maintain that comparison between ANY of these countries is flawed unless you have a good understanding of ALL of the factors at play.

NZ came into this thing with several key advantages that other countries did not, but in contrast, we were also majorly disadvantaged in many respects too.

Also, then end games across countries is often drastically different.

Again, nice to seem these kinds of data, but Im not really sure it tells us anything about NZs performance than we already know - not yet anyway.

Data and statistics are to be used as a starting point for intelligent discussions.

Otherwise, there is no starting point.

What we know is that NZ's numbers have been used to corral NZers into accepting that whatever the government has done to date is fully justified - at whatever economic costs. And that is simply NOT true.

[Jay]

I think locking down the borders fully earlier would have been a better outcome and not the so called self isolating (putting all incoming into a 'managed' facility, whether that be hotels/motels etc) a lot more business could have stayed open

[bull....]

Finance Minister Grant Robertson's warning: Get ready for deficits for 'extended period'; debt at all-time high
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330212


code for we are going to tax the hell out of you as soon as we can

[Joshuatree]

It's all a matter of disclosure - great to have traders who provide liquidity and great to have investors who provide long term stability and sustainable performances on the market.

The ones who ramp up and down are obviously traders or market manipulators and it is up to posters and investors to know who they are - and treat their postings accordingly.



Garbage IN, Garbage OUT.

Exactly ,ive assumed you are a trader.Bull openly is ,many are not open.

[Balance]

Exactly ,ive assumed you are a trader.Bull openly is ,many are not open.

I could not care a hoot what you think.

More important to me that I keep faith with the many posters who have followed and thanked me over the years for providing them with my open & transparent opinions.

[arc]

Frankly, rather disappointed that you, arc, did not complete the comparison when requested to disclose the full picture of how NZ is doing - since you have the data set.

We are doing well but not as well as we are led to believe.

For completeness, I have done it and it shows (per 100,000):

Deaths
Taiwan 0.03
Hong Kong 0.05
Australia 0.39
New Zealand 0.43
Japan 0.45
South Korea 0.50

Infected:
Taiwan 1.8
Hong Kong 13.9
Australia 27.2
New Zealand 30.5
Japan 12.3
South Korea 21.1

And we know that Taiwan, Hong Kong and Australia have not had to close down the economies to the extent that NZ has, to achieve BETTER results than NZ.

And it has nothing to do with whether it's National or Labour who is in power - it's about doing better than we have done.

What can we learn from them and do even better than we have.

Lets' raise our sight higher, shall we - rather than be forever comparing ourselves with the worse rather than the best.

Thank you for expanding the data and displaying a more accurate portrayal. Mine was just the first few I had memorised. There is/was no slight intended for anyone or any political party, merely my random thoughts on the situation that we as a nation have been remarkably unscathed in this unfortunate event that must now be turned into a sole searching opportunity to reevaluate "who is NZ" and "where is NZ going". What is our role both nationally and as a global entity. We may need to redefine and restructure aspects of the nation. As such going forward, your last two lines of text are particularly appropriate at this present time.

I agree we should raise the bar and take stock of what we have and where we are going.
Times are going to be tough

[Balance]

Thank you for expanding the data and displaying a more accurate portrayal. Mine was just the first few I had memorised. There is/was no slight intended for anyone or any political party, merely my random thoughts on the situation that we as a nation have been remarkably unscathed in this unfortunate event that must now be turned into a sole searching opportunity to reevaluate "who is NZ" and "where is NZ going". What is our role both nationally and as a global entity. We may need to redefine and restructure aspects of the nation. As such going forward, your last two lines of text are particularly appropriate at this present time.

I agree we should raise the bar and take stock of what we have and where we are going.
Times are going to be tough

Always find your infor useful, arc so please continue to provide and update.

We are heading into a terribly bad situation - the likes of which most NZers have not experienced since the late 1980s/early 1990s.

Luckily the country has the capacity to throw a lot of money to cushion the blow for those worse affected but the pain of massive unemployment and all the associated hardships are going to scar & diminish the dreams, hopes and aspirations of a whole generation of NZers - unless this recession is properly managed and handled.

We have no choice - we have to do better than what we have done to date.

[mp52]

...must now be turned into a sole searching opportunity to reevaluate "who is NZ" and "where is NZ going". What is our role both nationally and as a global entity. We may need to redefine and restructure aspects of the nation.

IMHO this is a highly idealistic idea and something NZ has shown itself to be terrible at following through on for decades. Just one example - how many talking heads have championed a transition to a knowledge economy for NZ over the years? Hits all the rights notes doesn't it but in practice? Cows, land trading and logs still keep the wolf from the door, uptake and capability of school kids in STEM literacy is marginal, jobs and career advancement for STEM graduates is both scarce and underwhelming. A Xero here and a Rocket Lab there are outliers. The overwhelming wealth and influence in the country is tied up in a sunset generation which by and large has shown a dogged determination to revert to the mean. I think the soul searching will occur organically with the shifting of demographics not in some sort of national epiphany.

[causecelebre]

IMHO this is a highly idealistic idea and something NZ has shown itself to be terrible at following through on for decades. Just one example - how many talking heads have championed a transition to a knowledge economy for NZ over the years? Hits all the rights notes doesn't it but in practice? Cows, land trading and logs still keep the wolf from the door, uptake and capability of school kids in STEM literacy is marginal, jobs and career advancement for STEM graduates is both scarce and underwhelming. A Xero here and a Rocket Lab there are outliers. The overwhelming wealth and influence in the country is tied up in a sunset generation which by and large has shown a dogged determination to revert to the mean. I think the soul searching will occur organically with the shifting of demographics not in some sort of national epiphany.

Well said. Not just STEM but other knowledge workers and other young professionals leave to places where they are paid commensurate to their skills and find interesting life experiences. NZ'rs are notoriously tight fisted and also natural given we live in the antipodes of where the 'action is'. It will be interesting to see if a de-globalisation goes as far as keeping the IP in NZ or whether it continues to be exported. Further NZ has an enviable ability to create but are woeful at make - often we have no choice but to off shore this

[macduffy]

IMHO this is a highly idealistic idea and something NZ has shown itself to be terrible at following through on for decades.

Indeed! Back in the late 60's we used to debate this subject, or a variation on the theme, in Jaycees - remember them? Mind you, Britain joining the Common Market was the threat in those days and people worried about how little old NZ would fare without Imperial Preference for our agricultural exports. Diversify! was the answer but somehow something in the ag sector always turned up and saved the day without too many hard decisions having to be taken. Has the lesson been learned?

[Bjauck]

Indeed! Back in the late 60's we used to debate this subject, or a variation on the theme, in Jaycees - remember them? Mind you, Britain joining the Common Market was the threat in those days and people worried about how little old NZ would fare without Imperial Preference for our agricultural exports. Diversify! was the answer but somehow something in the ag sector always turned up and saved the day without too many hard decisions having to be taken. Has the lesson been learned?
Britain has left the EU now...and is having fairly rancorous discussions with the EU...so maybe they will be back on the NZ doorstep with a begging bowl looking for food for its 60 million-odd people?

[Balance]

Exactly ,ive assumed you are a trader.Bull openly is ,many are not open.


Britain has left the EU now...and is having fairly rancorous discussions with the EU...so maybe they will be back on the NZ doorstep with a begging bowl looking for food for its 60 million-odd people?

About as likely as NZ sending our first man to Mars.

[Balance]

Exactly ,ive assumed you are a trader.Bull openly is ,many are not open.


Indeed! Back in the late 60's we used to debate this subject, or a variation on the theme, in Jaycees - remember them? Mind you, Britain joining the Common Market was the threat in those days and people worried about how little old NZ would fare without Imperial Preference for our agricultural exports. Diversify! was the answer but somehow something in the ag sector always turned up and saved the day without too many hard decisions having to be taken. Has the lesson been learned?

If this government continues to side with US in the row with China, there is a very good chance that NZ will be forced to find ways to diversify.

So keep the fingers crossed that China retaliates - then the hard decision is made for NZ. It will be the best thing to happen to NZ for the long term. 👍

[arc]

First off Balance said something about finding my thoughts useful.. ha

I blame balance for the following rant..


IMHO this is a highly idealistic idea and something NZ has shown itself to be terrible at following through on for decades. Just one example - how many talking heads have championed a transition to a knowledge economy for NZ over the years? Hits all the rights notes doesn't it but in practice? Cows, land trading and logs still keep the wolf from the door, uptake and capability of school kids in STEM literacy is marginal, jobs and career advancement for STEM graduates is both scarce and underwhelming. A Xero here and a Rocket Lab there are outliers. The overwhelming wealth and influence in the country is tied up in a sunset generation which by and large has shown a dogged determination to revert to the mean. I think the soul searching will occur organically with the shifting of demographics not in some sort of national epiphany.


Good points and as such commonly known, virus comes virus goes, yesterday the same as tomorrow. why rock the boat, and my personal favorite "From where im standing you look pretty screwed, but dont worry.. Im OK".


Have I made Idealistic statements ?, hell yes and will continue to do so.

Your right about lack of follow through and this needs to be addressed. We do have ability, we do have a medium to high level of skills, we do have innovation but we also have the tall poppy syndrome.


Knowledge Economy: How about a different take on that one.
Pressing keyboard buttons to make more websites for advertising is going to be a dead end market. You will find coders from overseas who will build for cents per hour.
Knowledge should be "applied" to every day common tasks that could benefit from automation. Aspects of multiple industries could benefit from strategically targeted concepts to revise and improve performance. Im talking Robotics, I personally think they will be necessary for future survival both technology wise and economically. Im NOT talking about putting people permanently out of work with robot replacement. We need the core human skills of visualisation and concept development. Put people into technology training, concept design, fabrication & manufacturing. We need people to brain storm and dream up the robots and carry the dream through to actuality. First use would be applied here in NZ, we need a full development cycle and industry created ( concept-develop-build-test-refine-rebuild ) then finally for export or global lease ?.
They are machines and will need ongoing maintenance, (side industry)


Robots should be swimming in the oceans around us, aiding (not replacing) our efforts at marine farming as large scale ventures, global supply industry. We breed a small number of trout for tourist fishermen, apply the concept to hugh scale marine farming.


We have relatively fertile lands but we should also be thinking of Vertical crop farming. Take 10 acres of ground equivalent area and put it into a 15 story building. Automate it and apply robotics concepts. Conveyor belts with containers of soil and plants. Absolute minimum of human comfort design in the system. Specialise the building for intensive horticultural usage.


We should grow such quantities of fruit, vegetables, marine based products that Air NZ has to buy more planes just to ship the stuff around the globe. Forget the uppity passenger market, think bulk global transportation. Food is the new Gold.


We should be building (from the ground up) electric cars. Britten built a motorbike, lets progress his innovation. We need access to Australias raw minerals, metals etc. Start with small 2 person shopping sized/city only models. Get some student sci-fi design concepts going.


Wolf from the door. Thank goodness we have those industries to buffer the ebb and flow of world economics.


Organic soul searching, omg sounds like prolonged meditation and more national procrastination...We've had enough of that. Guys/Girls its time to start banging some heads together...


STEM Science Technology Engineering Mathematics: Your right stem is vital and as such needs to be redefined and rewrapped as a living breathing functional tool, not a theory only dead end.


OK, now tell me why we cant do it and why we should just sit on our collective asses and do nothing. If you/we/govt are serious about "geting NZ going" then brainstorming new s**t should become a compulsory national passtime.

[bull....]

looks like level 2 next week

this seems a sensible idea with the right safe guards

Govt considers reopening country for $5b international student industry
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330321

[mp52]

...I blame balance for the following rant..
...OK, now tell me why we cant do it and why we should just sit on our collective asses and do nothing. If you/we/govt are serious about "geting NZ going" then brainstorming new s**t should become a compulsory national passtime.

Ha, not at all! It's hard not to get caught up in your whirlwind of enthusiasm and innovative thinking. It got me thinking about some other instances in modern history where societies created new opportunities via rapid technological advancement.

Some had grand top-down vision (moon landing), some grew out of grassroots communities of interest exploiting hardware advances (Silicon Valley 80s), some had long-standing traditions valuing both artisanal and scholarly skills, effective labour relations, small almost feudal concentrations of interdependent industrial wealth and massive foreign investment (post-war Germany, Japan and others). All quite different yet sharing one thing - a well-articulated, well-funded concrete vision with goals which reached beyond election timeframes and captured the imagination and commitment of young people and provided them with real opportunities.

Maybe you're the Elon Musk we need Arc ;)

[arc]

Maybe you're the Elon Musk we need Arc ;)

Ha.. not me mate, Im just a simple bloke who enjoys tinkering with things and having a good yarn.

Your right though mp52, these modes of thinking emerge from a variety of beginnings and situations.
All quite different yet sharing one thing - a well-articulated, well-funded concrete vision with goals which reached beyond election timeframes and captured the imagination and commitment of young people and provided them with real opportunities.

And all those methodologies involved people who possessed that vital component of enthusiasm. We need NZ "Think tanks" established to promote out of the box thinking and innovation.

I want our people to have something that leaders of great nations and people in powerful positions often struggle to achieve or to deliver to their people... Hope

[nztx]

Finance Minister Grant Robertson's warning: Get ready for deficits for 'extended period'; debt at all-time high
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330212


code for we are going to tax the hell out of you as soon as we can

Where was I reading recently ?

I recollect somewhere reading Britain having large post WW II Public Debt which was only fully repaid in 2006

Goes to show Large Public debt is not always unhealthy, Nor deficits & Govts of the day DO NOT need to Tax the hell out everything still standing on the other side here ..

Let's see what the Political Dreamers of the Day think & how they act on it here ..

[nztx]

Thank you for expanding the data and displaying a more accurate portrayal. Mine was just the first few I had memorised. There is/was no slight intended for anyone or any political party, merely my random thoughts on the situation that we as a nation have been remarkably unscathed in this unfortunate event that must now be turned into a sole searching opportunity to reevaluate "who is NZ" and "where is NZ going". What is our role both nationally and as a global entity. We may need to redefine and restructure aspects of the nation. As such going forward, your last two lines of text are particularly appropriate at this present time.

I agree we should raise the bar and take stock of what we have and where we are going.
Times are going to be tough


Thanks for the update - arc

[nztx]

I think locking down the borders fully earlier would have been a better outcome and not the so called self isolating (putting all incoming into a 'managed' facility, whether that be hotels/motels etc) a lot more business could have stayed open

Yes .. my thoughts as well

Those 6 weeks from January to February are the period during which this should have happened

Look at Taiwan's infection / death rates & then consider their acting on this was in January - turning away cruise ships etc etc from that point

In NZ - Govt had early warning of what was likely with that very first mercy flight of Kiwi's from a Cruise Ship up that way

What transpired was a kind of munted ban on individuals from China, then Italy, then Iran .. closing the gate after the dog had escaped ; and that mysterious containment strategy which as we all know was selectively effective (probably at best)

Closing borders earlier would have

- stemmed Cruise Ship Infections coming in
- stopped World Bull Conference cluster occurring
- stopped a number of other clusters even happening

Compulsory containment of our Returnees in Govt Quarantine facilities for a month would have been effective


All up we could have seen economic cost, disruption & carnage at a fraction of that now seen with tardier dealing with C-19 seen in hands of the current Govt.

[blobbles]

IMHO this is a highly idealistic idea and something NZ has shown itself to be terrible at following through on for decades. Just one example - how many talking heads have championed a transition to a knowledge economy for NZ over the years? Hits all the rights notes doesn't it but in practice? Cows, land trading and logs still keep the wolf from the door, uptake and capability of school kids in STEM literacy is marginal, jobs and career advancement for STEM graduates is both scarce and underwhelming. A Xero here and a Rocket Lab there are outliers. The overwhelming wealth and influence in the country is tied up in a sunset generation which by and large has shown a dogged determination to revert to the mean. I think the soul searching will occur organically with the shifting of demographics not in some sort of national epiphany.

While I completely agree with the sentiment, we are moving (too slowly) to a knowledge economy. It's likely now that tech is our second biggest export earner and will be bigger than tourism for the next 3-5 years at least. If tourism ever catches up after this shock. Check the graphics here: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12281337 .

You will note that if you divide the total export earnings by the number of people employed, they earn an average 168k per person. I would suggest that is a lot more than almost any other industry (maybe oil and gas is more) as it also has a tiny foot print (office buildings, fairly low power usage, pretty low resource usage). Tourism had 230k workers earning an average of 49k per person for comparison and has a pretty big footprint (ecologically, using up a lot of land and resources). Sure Dairy earns a lot more per person at 385k per person, but it has massive resource usage, land usage and environmental degradation effects. This shows why you have to take into account the total footprint when comparing industries.

Will take another decade or two to become bigger than dairy, but it will probably happen despite the lack of investment. Of course governments could supercharge this to being huge in a decade, but they are collectively clueless on how to do this.

[blobbles]

Yes .. my thoughts as well

Those 6 weeks from January to February are the period during which this should have happened

Look at Taiwan's infection / death rates & then consider their acting on this was in January - turning away cruise ships etc etc from that point

In NZ - Govt had early warning of what was likely with that very first mercy flight of Kiwi's from a Cruise Ship up that way

What transpired was a kind of munted ban on individuals from China, then Italy, then Iran .. closing the after the dog had escaped ; and that mysterious containment strategy which as we all know was selectively effective (probably at best)

Closing borders earlier would have

- stemmed Cruise Ship Infections coming in
- stopped World Bull Conference cluster occurring
- stopped a number of other clusters even happening

Compulsory containment of our Returnees in Govt Quarantine facilities for a month would have been effective


All up we could have seen economic cost, disruption & carnage at a fraction of that now seen with tardier dealing with C-19 seen in hands of the current Govt.

Hindsight is 20/20 of course. Do you think our population would have acquiesced to a 4 week lock down if we had no cases? So many people were breaking level 4 when we had over 1000 cases, calling it a load of bulls%#t. I suspect if we had pulled the trigger too early, likely we would have lots of people breaking the lockdown causing heaps of community transmission and we still wouldn't have had it under control.

[JBmurc]

While I completely agree with the sentiment, we are moving (too slowly) to a knowledge economy. It's likely now that tech is our second biggest export earner and will be bigger than tourism for the next 3-5 years at least. If tourism ever catches up after this shock. Check the graphics here: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12281337 .

You will note that if you divide the total export earnings by the number of people employed, they earn an average 168k per person. I would suggest that is a lot more than almost any other industry (maybe oil and gas is more) as it also has a tiny foot print (office buildings, fairly low power usage, pretty low resource usage). Tourism had 230k workers earning an average of 49k per person for comparison and has a pretty big footprint (ecologically, using up a lot of land and resources). Sure Dairy earns a lot more per person at 385k per person, but it has massive resource usage, land usage and environmental degradation effects. This shows why you have to take into account the total footprint when comparing industries.

Will take another decade or two to become bigger than dairy, but it will probably happen despite the lack of investment. Of course governments could supercharge this to being huge in a decade, but they are collectively clueless on how to do this.

2,500 people work in commercial fishing and aquaculture operations at sea. The New Zealand seafood industry had a total export earning (FOB) of $1.8 billion in seafood exports in 2018.=====$720,000 per person

[moka]

Laurie Garret predicted the coronavirus. What does she foresee next? Lots of Black Mondays. She has been telling everybody that her event horizon is about 36 months, and that's her best-case scenario,"

If America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections "with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realise, 'Oh, my God, it's not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can't make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets, and they own an island that they go to, and they don't care whether or not our streets are safe,' then I think we could have massive political disruption.
"Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 per cent unemployment looks like," she said, "we may also see what collective rage looks like."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12330039

[nztx]

Hindsight is 20/20 of course. Do you think our population would have acquiesced to a 4 week lock down if we had no cases? So many people were breaking level 4 when we had over 1000 cases, calling it a load of bulls%#t. I suspect if we had pulled the trigger too early, likely we would have lots of people breaking the lockdown causing heaps of community transmission and we still wouldn't have had it under control.

It may look like hindsight

However what's the best way of not having to eliminate something in the first place ?

the answer to that is fairly obvious - is it not

Some still dont appear to get it -- if acted on early on, it's likely NO Lockdown or other nonsense this Govt has had to dream up to cover their backsides for 'caught out asleep at the helm" early on would likely have been necessary at all..


Why did Govt sit on their hands when they should have been acting decisively ?

Upon what grounds did they consider that risk at an early point did not warrant fast early containment measures ?

Why did Peters as late as latter part of March still continue encouraging Expats & Kiwi's, with or without C-19 to return here, when the perceived risk was likely very considerably greater than January or February ?


This Govt are fairly good at 'stamping on things' and fast (eg. their action on Firearms)

why or what did they fail to comprehend on this one ?

they have failed Kiwi's on this one through their tardiness, have they not ?

they have failed Kiwi's by the unnecessary destruction of the economy & many businesses within it

they have failed Kiwi employees by failing to act until too late, resulting in job losses, huge costs to the taxpayer & large scale business carnage

they have failed Kiwi's by allowing cruise ship passengers to access NZ with unverified illness on board at a time when there were strong reasons to believe C-19 may have been present

probably more, but that will do for now..

[Tomtom]

I recollect somewhere reading Britain having large post WW II Public Debt which was only fully repaid in 2006. Goes to show Large Public debt is not always unhealthy, Nor deficits & Govts of the day DO NOT need to Tax the hell out everything still standing on the other side here ..
Let's see what the Political Dreamers of the Day think & how they act on it here .. Well the UK got its money back because it invested in building infrastructure (e.g. motorway networks) and new towns (Stevenage, Crawley etc.)

It wasn't all spent on bombing Jerry you know.

[Entrep]

Laurie Garret predicted the coronavirus. What does she foresee next? Lots of Black Mondays. She has been telling everybody that her event horizon is about 36 months, and that's her best-case scenario,"

If America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections "with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realise, 'Oh, my God, it's not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can't make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets, and they own an island that they go to, and they don't care whether or not our streets are safe,' then I think we could have massive political disruption.
"Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 per cent unemployment looks like," she said, "we may also see what collective rage looks like."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12330039socialism for the rich. Capitalism for the poor

[nztx]

Well the UK got its money back because it invested in building infrastructure (e.g. motorway networks) and new towns (Stevenage, Crawley etc.)

It wasn't all spent on bombing Jerry you know.


Probably correct

The point of the post was that Paying Down Public Debt can be spread forward as the UK did over 50-60 years
It need not be a knee jerk 'increase taxes & bring in every other sort of revenue gathering means possible' Labour action to bring it back in faster

Obviously Public Debt to GDP will show a heftier ratio going forward

[bull....]

While I completely agree with the sentiment, we are moving (too slowly) to a knowledge economy. It's likely now that tech is our second biggest export earner and will be bigger than tourism for the next 3-5 years at least. If tourism ever catches up after this shock. Check the graphics here: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12281337 .

You will note that if you divide the total export earnings by the number of people employed, they earn an average 168k per person. I would suggest that is a lot more than almost any other industry (maybe oil and gas is more) as it also has a tiny foot print (office buildings, fairly low power usage, pretty low resource usage). Tourism had 230k workers earning an average of 49k per person for comparison and has a pretty big footprint (ecologically, using up a lot of land and resources). Sure Dairy earns a lot more per person at 385k per person, but it has massive resource usage, land usage and environmental degradation effects. This shows why you have to take into account the total footprint when comparing industries.

Will take another decade or two to become bigger than dairy, but it will probably happen despite the lack of investment. Of course governments could supercharge this to being huge in a decade, but they are collectively clueless on how to do this.

agree know is the time to invest in the knowledge economy. microsoft investment in NZ is a good start. NZ also has the chance of first mover advantage to double international students into NZ while the rest of the world battles the virus

[Cyclical]

The Nasdaq is now up for the year.

It appears technology has us sorted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nasdaq-is-now-up-for-the-year-here-are-the-indexs-best-performing-stocks-2020-05-07?mod=mw_latestnews

[bull....]

The Nasdaq is now up for the year.

It appears technology has us sorted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nasdaq-is-now-up-for-the-year-here-are-the-indexs-best-performing-stocks-2020-05-07?mod=mw_latestnews

tech majors virus proof to a degree there the ones driving the nasdaq but the trade is getting pretty crowded. pph in NZ our star at the moment in the space


anyway back to reality of the rest of the markets and mainstreet peoples lives

Bank of England predicts worst recession in 300 years


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12330449

Bank of England predicts record crash and house price slump
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/07/bank-england-predicts-economic-record-crash-soaring-unemployment/


and in NZ a much better idea than extending the free for all business friendly wage subsidy

Government considering change to benefit access rules


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300007124/government-considering-change-to-benefit-access-rules

so draconian that someone loses there job and because there married tough titties no welfare for you thru no fault of there own

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12330442

Mortgage rates below 3%.

[Balance]

The Nasdaq is now up for the year.

It appears technology has us sorted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nasdaq-is-now-up-for-the-year-here-are-the-indexs-best-performing-stocks-2020-05-07?mod=mw_latestnews

8.5% below all time high on 20 February 2020.

Interesting, isn't it?

Must be like a stab into the heart of the doomsday merchants who failed to take into consideration the massive fall in interest rates (positively impacting on valuations) and the fact that many of the technology companies can still operate in the lockdown world successfully.

[dobby41]

8.5% below all time high on 20 February 2020.

Interesting, isn't it?

Must be like a stab into the heart of the doomsday merchants who failed to take into consideration the massive fall in interest rates (positively impacting on valuations) and the fact that many of the technology companies can still operate in the lockdown world successfully.

It's like people don't think there'll be any real impact to earnings etc.

[Balance]

It's like people don't think there'll be any real impact to earnings etc.

Simplistically, Valuation = earnings x cost of capital x future growth

So think through what has happened, and what the market is saying.

[BlackPeter]

Which country would you rather be living in right now? USA? Italy? Russia? China? UK? France? Brazil?
I thank my lucky stars I am living in NZ.


I realise the question is rhetorical and intended to make us appreciate our situation relative to others, but I find them overly simplistic and defeatist... sure, almost everyone on this forum would prefer to be living in NZ at the moment... but shouldn't we be striving for the most optimal response to Covid, regardless of how poor or unfortunate other countries' responses have been?

My health and economic expectations of the NZ Government are very high - they have been blessed with an extremely favorable starting point by virtue of (for example) our geographic moat, low population density and lower proportion of older/vulnerable citizens.

Not a particular fan of our current government, but while they clearly missed their targets in many areas, I think they got some things as well right.

And hey - just looking at the list of countries above - they have all not just a much higher death toll due to Covid-19 (and most of them still rapidly rising), the majority of them have lying, corrupt and populist heads of government who are happy to do anything to stay in power - even if it means to throw their own country under the bus. And that's what most of them are doing - just look at the orange gorilla basically encouraging his followers to commit suicide.

So good to live in NZ, even if the current government might not be perfect :); But hey - while the current opposition might have done some things different in the current crisis (even if its not quite clear, what) - I am sure they would have made other mistakes instead. National have currently a unique chance to publish and promote a better way forward form here. It is just - while it is good that Simon is working together with the government in the recent crisis, I haven't really heard so far a lot of alternative proposals for the best way to get our of this crisis from him. Where are his ideas? Where is his leadership? Does National really have the right leader?

Let's be kind to each other and enjoy to still live in a country where both main political parties (while not perfect) value the interest of the country above their own desire to cling to power, are sensible and not a danger to democracy. This is much more than one can say about most of the other countries listed above (basically all with the possible exception of France).

[workingdad]

Simplistically, Valuation = earnings x cost of capital x future growth

So think through what has happened, and what the market is saying.

I would have put it at Valuation = earnings x Future growth x federal reserve x federal reserve x federal reserve haha

[Balance]

I would have put it at Valuation = earnings x Future growth x federal reserve x federal reserve x federal reserve haha

You have hit the nail on the head!

Don't fight the Fed.

[macduffy]

It may look like hindsight


Well. yes it does.

[Balance]

https://www.wcvb.com/article/moderna-granted-permission-to-move-to-phase-2-of-coronavirus-vaccine-trials/32404799#

Moderna vaccine moving into Phase 2 and if successful, Phase 3 in July 2020.

Sounds like FDA & CDC pulling out all the stops to facilitate the trial of this vaccine.

[bull....]

trump finally got his wish the jan futures fed implied rate went negative today meaning negative rates next year and meaning the fed just dug a bigger hole for itself.

notice gold and bitcoin had big jumps today , i posted many months ago gold chart was breaking out 1900 test to come so thats playing out nicely

[bull....]

us futures seem to be front running( up 200pts at the moment) the non farm payrolls tonight est 21 million lost there jobs so market must be thinking maybe its gonna be only 20 million

[winner69]

Jeez if Macquarie slash their dividend things must be bad over in OZ

[blobbles]

2,500 people work in commercial fishing and aquaculture operations at sea. The New Zealand seafood industry had a total export earning (FOB) of $1.8 billion in seafood exports in 2018.=====$720,000 per person

Indeed, but fishing also comes with a significant environmental footprint. But I do agree that it is a highly productive industry for NZ, mainly down to quality and being a premium product. Unfortunately without depleting stocks more, it can't really expand much. As processing becomes more and more automated, hopefully this number will also rise. Unfortunately it goes into the back pockets of a very concentrated few.

[arc]

Indeed, but fishing also comes with a significant environmental footprint. But I do agree that it is a highly productive industry for NZ, mainly down to quality and being a premium product. Unfortunately without depleting stocks more, it can't really expand much. As processing becomes more and more automated, hopefully this number will also rise. Unfortunately it goes into the back pockets of a very concentrated few.

Im thinking "Farm" the fish as in setup laboratory environments for egg harvesting/ fertilisation, on-grow to defined size in holding tanks, release sprats to defined areas. Its a lot of work but also results in new productive and sustainable industries.

We definitely cant just increase boats and deplete whats naturally out there now, we would end up killing off the supply. We must create structural operations and environments to manage and refine the interlinked processes. Expand the concept to include some varieties of Kelp, for the food and medical markets, and Prawn farms.

I have a feeling that globally speaking, Food will be the new Gold

[winner69]

US yield curve getting steeper

Good sign for future growth

Cool

[blackcap]

Is this what is holding the NZ market up?

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/104909/fma-cautions-new-investors-against-piling-nzx-if-they-havent-done-their

If I read that graph correctly, during the month of April, retail investors purchased $200m more shares than they sold. That is quite some whack.

[clip]

Is this what is holding the NZ market up?

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/104909/fma-cautions-new-investors-against-piling-nzx-if-they-havent-done-their

If I read that graph correctly, during the month of April, retail investors purchased $200m more shares than they sold. That is quite some whack.

I read that sharesies members over the past year have grown from 14000 to 146000 and over $300m invested so theres a good chunk. Rough figures from memory but I know the 300m+ is accurate

[blackcap]

I read that sharesies members over the past year have grown from 14000 to 146000 and over $300m invested so theres a good chunk. Rough figures from memory but I know the 300m+ is accurate

Yeah I saw the figures, but what I mean is the net purchase over net sales. If it is $200m that is huge. Wonder when the inertia will end and we could see some selling?

[clip]

Yeah I saw the figures, but what I mean is the net purchase over net sales. If it is $200m that is huge. Wonder when the inertia will end and we could see some selling?

Personally my view point remains the same that it won't happen this time around. Share market remains disconnected from the economy and I've been buying based on that belief. I may be wrong I may be right who knows. V shaped recovery in NZ will bring/keep international money flowing in and (compared to the US and parts of europe) we will return to rockstar economic status, bar airlines and tourism sectors.

[Baa_Baa]

Yeah I saw the figures, but what I mean is the net purchase over net sales. If it is $200m that is huge. Wonder when the inertia will end and we could see some selling?

Question is imo who is selling to retail volumes and do they know better. Imbalance points to smart big money knows something that not so smart small money doesn’t know?

[nztx]

Question is imo who is selling to retail volumes and do they know better. Imbalance points to smart big money knows something that not so smart small money doesn’t know?


Bear in mind that many of the Sharesies entrants will be those previously locked out of the market or can't be bothered with big main street expensive traditional Cost + brokers before Sharesies came along -- so much of it new money - perhaps some sitting in low interest bank savings accounts..

What is selling & how much higher is probably a further pertinent question..

[peat]

Yeah I saw the figures, but what I mean is the net purchase over net sales. If it is $200m that is huge.

Is it though?


Even the NZX does $100M every day and XRO on the ASX today did $A40M all by itself, so in relation to the market overall 200m is not huge I wouldn't think.

[Cyclical]

I suppose if a good chunk of it was targeted at your fashionable stocks that a bunch of the Sharesies crowd can relate to, eg AIR, HLG, KMD and the likes, then it might help. But keeping things in perspective, didn't someone say there was circa $300 billion looking for somewhere more interesting to reside in the new low interest rate norm...?

[Entrep]

TOurism is 6% of our economy, soon to be 0%

[Entrep]

Is it though?


Even the NZX does $100M every day and XRO on the ASX today did $A40M all by itself, so in relation to the market overall 200m is not huge I wouldn't think.

That is mostly trading volume. Retail holders getting sucked in and smart money will be dumping on them soon enough

[Panda-NZ-]

I suppose if a good chunk of it was targeted at your fashionable stocks that a bunch of the Sharesies crowd can relate to, eg AIR, HLG, KMD and the likes, then it might help. But keeping things in perspective, didn't someone say there was circa $300 billion looking for somewhere more interesting to reside in the new low interest rate norm...?

Yep low interest will provide long term support. As these low rates drag on and on for months/years (?) people will be keenly looking for alternatives.

[bull....]

market in rally mode only 20.5 million people lost jobs better than expected , think i guessed 20m , est was 21m

[bull....]

Is this what is holding the NZ market up?

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/104909/fma-cautions-new-investors-against-piling-nzx-if-they-havent-done-their

If I read that graph correctly, during the month of April, retail investors purchased $200m more shares than they sold. That is quite some whack.

pokies , sports betting , casino etc all closed clearly just gamblers getting there fix in the market. as asic report shows of all the new trades done by new people is for less than a day clearly punters having a go.
I expect once all the pokies etc open up again most if not all of the extra volume will go.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Anti-establishment and contrarian financial website ZeroHedge has this headline;

"Worst Jobs Report In History: 20.5 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rate Hits Record 14.7%"

In the article it claims the number of unemployed is 10x greater than the peak of the Great Depression.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Marilyn Munroe]

pokies , sports betting , casino etc all closed clearly just gamblers getting there fix in the market. as asic report shows of all the new trades done by new people is for less than a day clearly punters having a go.
I expect once all the pokies etc open up again most if not all of the extra volume will go.

The FMA(Financial Markets Authority) has a harrumph about "a new untrained appetite for share trading."

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/104909/fma-cautions-new-investors-against-piling-nzx-if-they-havent-done-their

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[kiora]

TOurism is 6% of our economy, soon to be 0%

Not sure about that
"Domestic tourism is also important, though expenditure and trip numbers have declined or stagnated in the face of[clarification needed] fast-growing international tourism.[citation needed] Domestic tourist spending of NZ$20.2 billion a year still[when?] exceeds that of international visitors (NZ$11.8 billion)"
"Australia accounts for 39.6 percent of New Zealand visitor arrivals. Broken down by state, New South Wales accounted for 533,681 visitors in 2019, followed by Queensland with 389,359 visitors, and Victoria with 368,710 visitors.[10]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_New_Zealand

[clip]

Anti-establishment and contrarian financial website ZeroHedge has this headline;

"Worst Jobs Report In History: 20.5 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rate Hits Record 14.7%"

In the article it claims the number of unemployed is 10x greater than the peak of the Great Depression.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

What's the population growth of people able to work since then though, for an accurate comparison

[bull....]

April jobs report: U.S. employers cut a record 20.5 million payrolls, unemployment rate jumps to 14.7%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-report-april-2020-unemployment-rate-coronavirus-pandemic-165316546.html

got the breakdown of sector job losses imagine NZ will be similar

[blackcap]

April jobs report: U.S. employers cut a record 20.5 million payrolls, unemployment rate jumps to 14.7%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-report-april-2020-unemployment-rate-coronavirus-pandemic-165316546.html

got the breakdown of sector job losses imagine NZ will be similar

I found this gem in the article,

“As was the case in March, special instructions sent to household survey interviewers called for all employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all such workers were classified.”

So obviously in NZ using this methodology we would have had unemployment of 400,000? or more.

Whatever the number, the markets in the US seem to like it a lot. Dow up 380 as I type with half an hour to go till close.

[bull....]

I found this gem in the article,

“As was the case in March, special instructions sent to household survey interviewers called for all employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all such workers were classified.”

So obviously in NZ using this methodology we would have had unemployment of 400,000? or more.

Whatever the number, the markets in the US seem to like it a lot. Dow up 380 as I type with half an hour to go till close.

i find it hard to wrap my head around the fact the markets up big when 20+m people lose there jobs but it is what it is. guess the temporary thing time will tell.

[winner69]

i find it hard to wrap my head around the fact the markets up big when 20+m people lose there jobs but it is what it is. guess the temporary thing time will tell.

It’s different this time bull

Nice chart ....different because S&P won’t go below 1000

[blackcap]

i find it hard to wrap my head around the fact the markets up big when 20+m people lose there jobs but it is what it is. guess the temporary thing time will tell.

I guess its because 20m people did not lose their jobs. If you are not at work because you are in lockdown... you make up part of that 20m.

[bull....]

I guess its because 20m people did not lose their jobs. If you are not at work because you are in lockdown... you make up part of that 20m.

but its in time thing of how many of the 20m actually get to go back as they open up and things do not go back to normal so im picking the real figure will be close to this once time goes on. as which will probably happen in NZ when the wage subsidy finishes and they lay off heaps people cause things are not back to normal

[Cyclical]

The FMA(Financial Markets Authority) has a harrumph about "a new untrained appetite for share trading."

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/104909/fma-cautions-new-investors-against-piling-nzx-if-they-havent-done-their

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

That's the one we've been talking about above, Marilyn. Boop boop de doh.

[moka]

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/retail-phenomenon-helps-nzx-trading-volumes-soar
(https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/retail-phenomenon-helps-nzx-trading-volumes-soar)
Equity trading on the NZX has skyrocketed as first-time investors have taken to app-based investing during the pandemic chaos. In April the number of equity trades was up more than 360 percent at 1.3 million, with an increase in low-value trades cutting the average on-market trade size in half – to $2,463.
Roberts said 50,000 new customers have joined Sharesies in the last two months, with almost three-quarters new to trading. Despite the platform not existing a year ago, the platform has almost 150,000 customers and makes up roughly 23 percent of all cash trades on the exchange.

[moka]

i find it hard to wrap my head around the fact the markets up big when 20+m people lose there jobs but it is what it is. guess the temporary thing time will tell.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12330670
Devastating United States jobs report for April will show Covid-19 impact.

The US unemployment rate for April could reach 16% or more. Twenty-one million jobs may have been lost.
If so, it would mean that nearly all the job growth in the 11 years since the Great Recession ended had vanished in one month. The scale of the job loss has been breathtakingly sudden.
During the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the nation lost 6.5% of its jobs over a two-year span. Yet in just April alone, the expected job loss of 21 million would amount to 14% of all jobs — more than twice as much.

[blackcap]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12330670
Devastating United States jobs report for April will show Covid-19 impact.

The US unemployment rate for April could reach 16% or more. Twenty-one million jobs may have been lost.
If so, it would mean that nearly all the job growth in the 11 years since the Great Recession ended had vanished in one month. The scale of the job loss has been breathtakingly sudden.
During the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the nation lost 6.5% of its jobs over a two-year span. Yet in just April alone, the expected job loss of 21 million would amount to 14% of all jobs — more than twice as much.

As posted above... how do they measure joblessness in the US.

If we in NZ measured it the same way our jobless rate for the month of April would be about 25%.

[Panda-NZ-]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12330670
Devastating United States jobs report for April will show Covid-19 impact.

The US unemployment rate for April could reach 16% or more. Twenty-one million jobs may have been lost.
If so, it would mean that nearly all the job growth in the 11 years since the Great Recession ended had vanished in one month. The scale of the job loss has been breathtakingly sudden.
During the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the nation lost 6.5% of its jobs over a two-year span. Yet in just April alone, the expected job loss of 21 million would amount to 14% of all jobs — more than twice as much.

The large companies will make market share gains and tech will boom.. Only small businesses are badly hit so far which are not represented in the indexes.

[moka]

As posted above... how do they measure joblessness in the US.

If we in NZ measured it the same way our jobless rate for the month of April would be about 25%.

In the five weeks covered by the US jobs report for April, 26.5 million people applied for unemployment benefits.
The job loss to be reported Friday may be less because the two are measured differently: The government calculates job losses by surveying businesses and households. It's a net figure that also counts the hiring that some companies, like Amazon and many grocery stores, have done. By contrast, the total jobless claims is a measure of just the layoff side of the equation.

Twenty-one million jobs may have been lost.
If so, it would mean that nearly all the job growth in the 11 years since the Great Recession ended had vanished in one month. The scale of the job loss has been breathtakingly sudden.

[King1212]

Settle down people!....the job loss is only temporary....given the lock down. Once open up....hiring will be huge!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/why-the-market-is-up-even-with-historic-job-losses.html

[Raz]

Settle down people!....the job loss is only temporary....given the lock down. Once open up....hiring will be huge!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/why-the-market-is-up-even-with-historic-job-losses.html

Their market seem to assume the virus as it fly's and travels around in the USA, a million plus affected people, just an't going to change high consumer confidence or everyday life, some one just switched it off....

[blackcap]

In the five weeks covered by the US jobs report for April, 26.5 million people applied for unemployment benefits.
The job loss to be reported Friday may be less because the two are measured differently: The government calculates job losses by surveying businesses and households. It's a net figure that also counts the hiring that some companies, like Amazon and many grocery stores, have done. By contrast, the total jobless claims is a measure of just the layoff side of the equation.

Twenty-one million jobs may have been lost.
If so, it would mean that nearly all the job growth in the 11 years since the Great Recession ended had vanished in one month. The scale of the job loss has been breathtakingly sudden.

Additionally, 78% of those who lost their job in April said they were furloughed, meaning the unemployment in theory will be temporary.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/why-the-market-is-up-even-with-historic-job-losses.html

[Raz]

Additionally, 78% of those who lost their job in April said they were furloughed, meaning the unemployment in theory will be temporary.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/why-the-market-is-up-even-with-historic-job-losses.html

Prepared to take a bet on that actually happening?

[CatO'Tonic]

From my perspective, I'm seeing a different story with the economy going into the next few years. I work in Industrial Automation and I have seen a huge increase in interest in my services and others like it. Anecdotally, I'm hearing that labour intensive companies are attempting to hedge against a large semi-skilled workforce that is vulnerable to pandemics like this one. The ideal manufacturing or food processing plant is one where you're not exposed to human factors. I saw the same thing after the GFC - job losses were used to cherry pick the best workers and as the economy grew, the slack was taken up by Automation. One of the things that discourages these companies from modernising their processes is the potential backlash from mass layoffs. When they have a genuine reason to lay people off, they take full advantage of it. I've said it before but this change is inevitable. The current situation only serves to expedite the process. My two cents...

[Raz]

From my perspective, I'm seeing a different story with the economy going into the next few years. I work in Industrial Automation and I have seen a huge increase in interest in my services and others like it. Anecdotally, I'm hearing that labour intensive companies are attempting to hedge against a large semi-skilled workforce that is vulnerable to pandemics like this one. The ideal manufacturing or food processing plant is one where you're not exposed to human factors. I saw the same thing after the GFC - job losses were used to cherry pick the best workers and as the economy grew, the slack was taken up by Automation. One of the things that discourages these companies from modernising their processes is the potential backlash from mass layoffs. When they have a genuine reason to lay people off, they take full advantage of it. I've said it before but this change is inevitable. The current situation only serves to expedite the process. My two cents...

Yes it is flowing through from the main consultancies focus on supply chain strategy...larger employers will employ way less and sme's are slow on the uptake when do take on again...

[CatO'Tonic]

We've heard for years that the way to leverage our largely primary sector based economy is to add value to the product. The same needs to apply to the workforce. We can't hope to compete internationally if so much of our labour force is unskilled. I think the best way forward is to concentrate on upskilling our people and supplement that approach with a change to the tax base. People who are living hand to mouth on minimum wage are in survival mode. They don't have the time or energy to redesign their careers and aren't willing to risk losing what they have, especially when they have families etc. I think we should be looking at a comprehensive and livable wage, or a supplement to part time work for those who take on training and/or education, just to ensure that further training is an option for people in that situation

[bull....]

From my perspective, I'm seeing a different story with the economy going into the next few years. I work in Industrial Automation and I have seen a huge increase in interest in my services and others like it. Anecdotally, I'm hearing that labour intensive companies are attempting to hedge against a large semi-skilled workforce that is vulnerable to pandemics like this one. The ideal manufacturing or food processing plant is one where you're not exposed to human factors. I saw the same thing after the GFC - job losses were used to cherry pick the best workers and as the economy grew, the slack was taken up by Automation. One of the things that discourages these companies from modernising their processes is the potential backlash from mass layoffs. When they have a genuine reason to lay people off, they take full advantage of it. I've said it before but this change is inevitable. The current situation only serves to expedite the process. My two cents...


totally now is the time for business to go full on automation , AI etc
without labour in the equation the field is levelled worldwide , best product will win then.
china is moving very fast in the space to make themselves world leaders for the future

[fish]

Yes it is flowing through from the main consultancies focus on supply chain strategy...larger employers will employ way less and sme's are slow on the uptake when do take on again...
There is so much to consider and it is good to reflect on the important issue of how employment will change.
The scope and magnitude of economic and lifestyle change initiated by Covid-19 is difficult to estimate but must include consideration of increased automation and more unemployment.For those employed less travelling and increased productivity.
The extent of this will likely vary around the world according to economies and how countries handle the epidemic.
Certainly looks as if the Pacific will be taking a different approach to the Northern Hemisphere

[Cyclical]

I saw the same thing after the GFC - job losses were used to cherry pick the best workers and as the economy grew, the slack was taken up by Automation. One of the things that discourages these companies from modernising their processes is the potential backlash from mass layoffs. When they have a genuine reason to lay people off, they take full advantage of it. I've said it before but this change is inevitable. The current situation only serves to expedite the process. My two cents...

Something that seems to be lost on AIR. We'll all pick up the tab though.

[moka]

Where to from here? There is a growing gap between the haves and the have-nots. Do we want a return to business as usual?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12329251&ref=recommendedv1
Simon Wilson: Is this the death of neoliberalism?
Those who usually insist that the market knows best have fallen silent. Corporates now want protection. Business lobbyists have their hands out for help.
After 35 years of neoliberalism, let's just remember what those "capable" leaders bequeathed us. A level of poverty that should be a scandal in a developed society. A broken health system, a deeply embedded housing crisis, rising carbon emissions and dysfunctional transport in our major city.
None of these were "unintended consequences": they are the inevitable result of the neoliberal policies pursued for so long in this country.

Sadly, neoliberalism isn't about to die just yet. In many parts of the world, those in power are still happy to insist that if you focus wealth on the wealthy, everyone else will benefit too. Trickle-down economics.
We want prosperity, but also biodiversity and the sustainable management of resources. We don't yet know what a new political economy that can deliver all that will look like.
But it isn't neoliberalism. If we didn't know that already, we certainly do now.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Further to CatoTonic's prediction of labour substitution by automation the turning off the tap for cheap compliant migrant workers will also add to this trend.

Those in charge of dark satanic mills formerly reliant on foreign workers will wonder if automation is an easier option than hiring kiwi's

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[bull....]

China reports 14 new infections as northeast city returns to partial lockdown
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3083708/coronavirus-china-reports-14-new-infections-northeast-city

even china city going back to partial lock down after easing , of course its probably worse than reported. sth korea also retreating on nightclubs , bars after they re - opened now closing them down again.

second waves are big risks to market not factored in at all

[kiwico]

Where to from here? There is a growing gap between the haves and the have-nots. Do we want a return to business as usual?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12329251&ref=recommendedv1
Simon Wilson: Is this the death of neoliberalism?
Those who usually insist that the market knows best have fallen silent. Corporates now want protection. Business lobbyists have their hands out for help.
After 35 years of neoliberalism, let's just remember what those "capable" leaders bequeathed us. A level of poverty that should be a scandal in a developed society. A broken health system, a deeply embedded housing crisis, rising carbon emissions and dysfunctional transport in our major city.
None of these were "unintended consequences": they are the inevitable result of the neoliberal policies pursued for so long in this country.

Sadly, neoliberalism isn't about to die just yet. In many parts of the world, those in power are still happy to insist that if you focus wealth on the wealthy, everyone else will benefit too. Trickle-down economics.
We want prosperity, but also biodiversity and the sustainable management of resources. We don't yet know what a new political economy that can deliver all that will look like.
But it isn't neoliberalism. If we didn't know that already, we certainly do now.

I realise papers have to sensationalise in order to sell, and the opinion pieces have to go a step further but much of this is tosh.

Corporates want protection? Only because the government has shut down their ability to do business.
Poverty? We have relative poverty in New Zealand which, when based on a percentage of average of earnings, will mathematically always occur.
A broker health system? Our family has found the health service provides admirably whenever it has been needed.
Housing crisis? Yes, houses have become very expensive based on salaries but a return to the mean of interest rates would go a long way to solving this. [Or competent government ministers.]
Dysfunctional transport? Perhaps in Auckland but blame the Council. Here in Wellington the trains run fine and if the Regional Council hadn't been such dicks the buses still would too.

Like in New Zealand for the vast majority is so much better than this article suggests.

[jonu]

I realise papers have to sensationalise in order to sell, and the opinion pieces have to go a step further but much of this is tosh.

Corporates want protection? Only because the government has shut down their ability to do business.
Poverty? We have relative poverty in New Zealand which, when based on a percentage of average of earnings, will mathematically always occur.
A broker health system? Our family has found the health service provides admirably whenever it has been needed.
Housing crisis? Yes, houses have become very expensive based on salaries but a return to the mean of interest rates would go a long way to solving this. [Or competent government ministers.]
Dysfunctional transport? Perhaps in Auckland but blame the Council. Here in Wellington the trains run fine and if the Regional Council hadn't been such dicks the buses still would too.

Like in New Zealand for the vast majority is so much better than this article suggests.

Simon Wilson is a Woke Joke. A journo who is very much in the Cindy stardust camp. Implying the market has failed, when in reality it has been completely constrained, is plain foolish.
One area I think NZ does need better government leadership is infrastructure, particularly Ports, Roads and Rail, Electricity. Government shouldn't run these things but I think there is strong argument for public ownership of essential infrastructure and utilities.

[Timesurfer]

China reports 14 new infections as northeast city returns to partial lockdown


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3083708/coronavirus-china-reports-14-new-infections-northeast-city

even china city going back to partial lock down after easing , of course its probably worse than reported. sth korea also retreating on nightclubs , bars after they re - opened now closing them down again.

second waves are big risks to market not factored in at all

By the look of the money flooding in to the market today the sun has come out and all is well with the world. We will get a level 2 announcement today and likely level 1 next week.

I can see no other rhyme or reason behind some of the upswings today. You would have to be an eternal optimist to think the tourism market is about experience a sudden upswing in fortune. Same with some of the others looking all green. But there seems to be a lot of money out there that just has to find a home. Be an interesting next few weeks.

[causecelebre]

Not sure where to post this and sorry if its been posted before. I found the graphs quite interesting:

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/104909/fma-cautions-new-investors-against-piling-nzx-if-they-havent-done-their

[kiwico]

Simon Wilson is a Woke Joke. A journo who is very much in the Cindy stardust camp. Implying the market has failed, when in reality it has been completely constrained, is plain foolish.
One area I think NZ does need better government leadership is infrastructure, particularly Ports, Roads and Rail, Electricity. Government shouldn't run these things but I think there is strong argument for public ownership of essential infrastructure and utilities.

At least water is still held at the public level in New Zealand but the local councils in the Wellington region are struggling to keep up with the costs of renewal with Porirua City looking to become part of Wellington City because they can't afford the water mains repairs and replacement. Where there can't be competition, such as what water you receive or the lines company you use it does make sense to be in public hands. But they should still have to operate at private sector levels of service (and pay) and not slide into public sector sloth (and ridiculous salaries).

[winner69]

At least water is still held at the public level in New Zealand but the local councils in the Wellington region are struggling to keep up with the costs of renewal with Porirua City looking to become part of Wellington City because they can't afford the water mains repairs and replacement. Where there can't be competition, such as what water you receive or the lines company you use it does make sense to be in public hands. But they should still have to operate at private sector levels of service (and pay) and not slide into public sector sloth (and ridiculous salaries).

The Pooh Taxis in Wellington are to stop running in a few weeks I hear

Good slogan - JB’s #1 for #2’s

[bull....]

barring the nasdaq most markets still not above the 61.8% retracement level

[JBmurc]

We don’t deplete stocks we manage wild fish stocks through the Quote management system (which needs fine tuning imho).. aquaculture farms fish stocks ... we need better connections between fisherman and Primary industries we need to stop the propaganda hate that NZ fisherman rape the sea ... we have huge untapped sea resources we farm out most of our deep sea to foreign operators why we don’t invest in are own fleets with kiwi crew) as for environment footprint I think it would stack up very well vs other protein food sources ...last trip we used 1035lts of diesel To land 6350kilos of prime mostly export net seafood that will have very little downstream processing) also add in the human health factors to seafood over mostly meat based diets and billions we have to spend on treatments ... just look at the nations with high seafood diets vs the west’s cancer obesity cardiovascular etc ... the big picture is we are a island nation with many sqm miles of farmable coastlines and thousands of Nautical miles of ocean if we could merge technology investment with kiwi fisherman know how I’m sure we could create many more billions in earnings

[Entrep]

11555

Two ways to interpret this

[peat]

barring the nasdaq most markets still not above the 61.8% retracement level



so down, back to say 50 or even 32
then up, to 78.6 ?


that's what I've predicted in the Dead Cat Bounce thread.



11555

Two ways to interpret this

up or down ? hahah

no, as I said down then up then DOWN
(everyone can be right and/or wrong)

[Tomtom]

I think the market has the ability to persist on an irrational basis for a very long time, we might be right on liquidity driving price but are we patient enough to wait for the fall as the market runs away from us in the intrim? I'm carrying more cash than usual.

[moka]

I realise papers have to sensationalise in order to sell, and the opinion pieces have to go a step further but much of this is tosh.

Corporates want protection? Only because the government has shut down their ability to do business.
Poverty? We have relative poverty in New Zealand which, when based on a percentage of average of earnings, will mathematically always occur.
A broker health system? Our family has found the health service provides admirably whenever it has been needed.
Housing crisis? Yes, houses have become very expensive based on salaries but a return to the mean of interest rates would go a long way to solving this. [Or competent government ministers.]
Dysfunctional transport? Perhaps in Auckland but blame the Council. Here in Wellington the trains run fine and if the Regional Council hadn't been such dicks the buses still would too.

Like in New Zealand for the vast majority is so much better than this article suggests.
Neoliberalism is characterized by free market trade, deregulation of financial markets, privatization, individualisation, and the shift away from state welfare provision. So how come corporates are disregarding their neoliberalism ideology and wanting a handout from the state.

When you say “only because the government has shut down their ability to do business” you ignore coronavirus, which is the real cause. While you can disagree with when and how much the government restricted business, if they had done nothing the economy would still have been impacted by other countries actions, shutting borders, staying home etc. Many New Zealanders would have stayed home and limited spending even if there hadn’t been a lockdown by the government. Look at how people stopped going to the doctor during the lockdown.

I expect a government to govern and not ignore its responsibilities in a crisis. Unfortunately Neoliberalism promotes anti-government sentiment deliberately to undermine democracy and reduce the power of the people to influence government policies, so the elites can have policies that promote their interests over the people’s.

The fact that your family has found the health service provides admirably whenever it has been needed doesn’t prove it is not broken. There are many people have not and do not get the service they expect e.g. cancer care.

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/cancer-care-campaigner-blair-vining-dies/
Blair Vining was an extraordinary man: turning his own tragedy into a battle to ensure better cancer care for all New Zealanders.

[moka]

The stock market looks increasingly divorced from economic reality. For decades, the market has been growing increasingly detached from the mainstream of American life, mirroring broad changes in the economy. Wall Street has very little to do with Main Street.

The giant companies that make up the S&P 500 operate under very different circumstances than the nation's small businesses, workers and cities and states. They are highly profitable, and hold significant sums of cash.

The five largest listed companies — Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook — have continued to climb this year, as investors bet they will emerge in an even more dominant position after the crisis. Through the end of April, these companies were up roughly 10 per cent this year, while the 495 other companies in the S&P were down 13 per cent. These firms — Microsoft, Amazon and Apple are each worth more than US$1 trillion — now account for one-fifth of the market value of the index, the highest level in 30 years.

The wealthiest 10 per cent of American households own about 84 per cent of the value of all household stock ownership. The top 1 per cent controlled 40 per cent of household stock holdings.

Less employees - According to a Brookings Institution report, for example, the two most highly valued companies in the country in 1962 — AT&T and General Motors — employed nearly 1.2 million people combined. Last year, the two largest companies in the S&P 500 — Microsoft and Apple — employed 280,000.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12331199

[bull....]

I think the market has the ability to persist on an irrational basis for a very long time, we might be right on liquidity driving price but are we patient enough to wait for the fall as the market runs away from us in the intrim? I'm carrying more cash than usual.

carrying cash what ever level very sensible to take advantage of unexpected opportunities.

[bull....]

heres big event , as mentioned last week fed futures went negative for the first time , so market testing powell. if powell doesnt shoot it down its full on negative coming very quickly. always the chance it come anyway

Powell is expected to squash idea of negative rates, even as Trump says US would benefit


Powell is expected to take the opportunity to talk down market speculation about negative interest rates, when he appears in a 9 a.m. ET webcast with the Peterson Institute for International Economic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/powell-is-expected-to-squash-idea-of-negative-interest-rates-even-as-trump-says-they-would-help.html


and in NZ TODAY

RBNZ expected to double QE programme on Wednesday, but will it provide more forward guidance and signal it might - just maybe - cut the OCR before next year?

https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/104930/rbnz-expected-double-qe-programme-wednesday-will-it-provide-more-forward-guidance-and


OF course when everyone ends up in negative rates , savers will all be made to pay to keep there money in the bank.
whats happening with bank stock prices everywhere in the world displays this

[bull....]

11555

Two ways to interpret this

a lot of big well known funds haven played the bounce have been putting new shorts on would explain

[Entrep]

Sell in May and go away

[bull....]

Let people use KiwiSaver to repay debt, petitioner urges Parliament
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121475474/let-people-use-kiwisaver-to-repay-debt-petitioner-urges-parliament

financial literacy 101 , pay off debt before investing but kiwisaver different lol lets send you to the streets but least your still have kiwisaver when you retire

[Bjauck]

Sell in May and go away

I have just checked the NZX50 movements for the period 15th May - August 31st for the past ten years. Figures are approximate.

2010 Fell 4%
2011 Fell 7%
2012 Rose 4%
2013 Fell 1%
2014 Rose 1%
2015 Fell 4%
2016 Rose 7%
2017 Rose 5%
2018 Rose 6%
2019 Rose 5%

[dobby41]

I have just checked the NZX50 movements for the period 15th May - August 31st for the past ten years. Figures are approximate.

2010 Fell 4%
2011 Fell 7%
2012 Rose 4%
2013 Fell 1%
2014 Rose 1%
2015 Fell 4%
2016 Rose 7%
2017 Rose 5%
2018 Rose 6%
2019 Rose 5%

Maybe it only work in the Northern Hemisphere?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

[Bjauck]

Maybe it only work in the Northern Hemisphere?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp Definitely a Northern Hemisphere term that suits their extended Summer vacation period - As appropriate in NZ as Christmas lights and feasting and Easter spring revival? However down here we tend to follow the bigger country trends.

[Leftfield]

I have just checked the NZX50 movements for the period 15th May - August 31st for the past ten years. Figures are approximate.

2010 Fell 4%
2011 Fell 7%
2012 Rose 4%
2013 Fell 1%
2014 Rose 1%
2015 Fell 4%
2016 Rose 7%
2017 Rose 5%
2018 Rose 6%
2019 Rose 5%

Thanks for posting...... and timely reminder that selling out and leaving the market for a period is pretty risky. Remember the markets as measured by NZX50 or S&P etc are averaging machines.

Basing your strategy on the performance (TA/FA) of the individual shares/companies you hold, gives you have a better chance of outperforming the indexes or averages.

[Balance]

Thanks for posting...... and timely reminder that selling out and leaving the market for a period is pretty risky. Remember the markets as measured by NZX50 or S&P etc are averaging machines.

Basing your strategy on the performance (TA/FA) of the individual shares/companies you hold, gives you have a better chance of outperforming the indexes or averages.

Reminder too that NZX50 is not reflective of NZ economy but specific heavyweight stocks like ATM, FPH, AIA etc.

[Entrep]

Here we go

11560

[Balance]

Good thing we live in a fake economy.

Whole western world actually - only one thing keeping their economies going - lots and lots of money printed out of thin air.

Don't fight the Fed.

[Entrep]

Let's follow mum, dad and nearly everyone else on sharesies into the abyss11566

[Timesurfer]

Well Monday was all positive and green fields everywhere couldn't possibly go wrong.
Tuesday on the other hand, looks like some of the bigger players are hanging the sharsies investors out to dry.

[Joshuatree]

This maybe of int to some, my eyes quickly glazed over.


https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/meet-the-feds-global-plunge-protection-team/ (https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/meet-the-feds-global-plunge-protection-team/)

[bull....]

RBNZ nearly doubles quantitative easing programme to $60 billion; Reaffirms forward guidance to keep OCR at 0.25%, but specifically says it's prepared to reduce the OCR further

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/104991/rbnz-nearly-doubles-quantitative-easing-programme-60-billion-reaffirms-forward-guidance

The Committee noted that a negative OCR will become an option in future, although at present financial institutions are not yet operationally ready.

We expect to see retail interest rates decline further as lower wholesale borrowing costs are passed through to retail customers


which all means term deposits going down as far as needed to make everyone spend there money

[moka]

Francis Fukuyama says the thing that determines a country’s effective crisis response to coronavirus is not whether they are an autocracy or a democracy. There will be some high-performing autocracies, and some with disastrous outcomes. There will be a similar variance in outcomes among democracies.
The crucial determinant in performance will not be the type of regime, but the state’s capacity and, above all, trust in government.
What matters in the end is whether citizens trust their leaders, and whether those leaders preside over a competent and effective state.
The capacity of people at the top, and their judgment, determine whether outcomes are good or bad.
In a democracy no less than in a dictatorship, citizens have to believe that the executive knows what it is doing. And trust, unfortunately, is exactly what is missing in America today.
The United States today faces a crisis of political trust. Trump’s base—the 35–40 percent of the population that will support him no matter what—has been fed a diet of conspiracy stories for the past four years concerning the “deep state,” and taught to distrust expertise that does not actively support the president.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/thing-determines-how-well-countries-respond-coronavirus/609025/

[moka]

For those of you who read and enjoyed the book The Fourth Turning Neil Howe talks about 80 year cycles and coronavirus. The pandemic is a mood accelerator. History is seasonal and winter is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9FT1ObIYLc

[Bjauck]

Reminder too that NZX50 is not reflective of NZ economy but specific heavyweight stocks like ATM, FPH, AIA etc.
True and As time has gone by and more companies are taken over by foreign concerns or leave for an Australian listing the NZX50 has become gradually less refelective of the NZ economy too.

[winner69]

For those of you who read and enjoyed the book The Fourth Turning Neil Howe talks about 80 year cycles and coronavirus. The pandemic is a mood accelerator. History is seasonal and winter is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9FT1ObIYLc

That Fourth Turning is one hell of a book

Generations written before that was pretty good as well.

[peat]

What matters in the end is whether citizens trust their leaders, and those leaders and their judgment determine whether outcomes are good or bad.


edited for brevity.

I find this interesting to apply to NZ. Jacinda has gained a lot of trust with her humanitarian approach and perhaps this has improved our outcome.
I must admit though, especially in the Twitterverse, there is a lot of strident criticism.
But I suspect criticism of her response is not well founded enough to support outright defiance for most (unless you're Brian Tamaki) as even outlying opinion holders seem to recognise the strategy is effective and seemingly successful, even if you would have preferred it was implemented differently.

[Balance]

RBNZ predictions:

Unemployment : 9% -12.5%

House prices : minus 9%

Interest rates : banks need to get ready & be prepared for negative interest rates

[winner69]

RBNZ predictions:

Unemployment : 9% -12.5%

House prices : minus 9%

Interest rates : banks need to get ready & be prepared for negative interest rates

Will they be about right this time?

[Balance]

Will they be about right this time?

I am picking the predictions to be too optimistic for the next 12 months. 😖

[winner69]

I am picking the predictions to be too optimistic for the next 12 months. 😖

They usually are optimistic

Bit hard to forecast a reversion to the mean eh ..there usual modus operandi

[moka]

This maybe of int to some, my eyes quickly glazed over.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/meet-the-feds-global-plunge-protection-team/ (https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/meet-the-feds-global-plunge-protection-team/)
Does my head in too, but it looks very dodgy to me judging by Bernanke’s body language in the Youtube video below when he is interviewed by Alan Grayson about half a trillion dollars that the Fed lent to foreign central banks from last quarter 2007 to end of 2008. NZ got $9b = $3,000 per person. Swaps went from $24b at the end of 2007 to $500b at the end of 2008.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0NYBTkE1yQ
Alan Grayson: "Which Foreigners Got the Fed's $500,000,000,000?" Bernanke: "I Don't Know."

The current outstanding swap lines on the Fed’s balance sheet have grown from $45 billion on March 18 to $348.5 billion by April 1 and now stand, as of 7 May, at a stunning $444.89 billion. So nearly as much as GFC which was done over a year, has been done in less than two months. It does mean we are in a liquidity crisis like the GFC, but much worse.
Swaps is the largest of the Fed’s emergency programs by a factor of more than two to one.

It’s the carefully calculated disbursement of those swap lines to foreign central banks that are already propping up the stock market through the purchase of stocks and corporate bonds.
The ECB announced on March 18 that it will expand its asset purchases (which include corporate bonds) by another $820 billion.

Also remember this, the Fed and foreign central banks were also working in collusion (https://wallstreetonparade.com/2018/04/nomi-prins-new-book-is-a-far-more-important-read-than-comeys/) during the devastating financial crisis of 2007 to 2010.
The book Collusion not only proves that the 1 percent got bailed out while the 99 percent got sold out as a result of policies of the U.S. Central Bank (the Fed) during and after the financial crash of 2008,
Wall Street used its easy access to cheap money to increase speculation in derivatives and other complex securities. They used it to buy back their own shares, thus effectively manipulating their own stock – in broad daylight and with explicit approval from the Fed.” Equally problematic writes Prins, “these banks dialed back their lending to small and midsized businesses, which hampered their growth potential.”

By providing the grease that kept money flowing, central bankers superseded governments – they set the cost of money and provided the confidence in ongoing liquidity – the world was their battlefield.”
“The Fed absolved itself of all responsibility for financial stability in the big bank landscape in June 2017 when it allowed thirty-four of the largest Wall Street banks, including the Big Six, to pass its stress tests. In turn, the banks took this opportunity to buy more of their own shares, elevating their stock prices rather than expanding their loan services for small businesses and Main Street customers.”

This maneuver by the Fed resulted in announcements that Wall Street banks planned “to buy back $92.8 billion of their own stock as a direct response to the Fed’s blessing,” notes Prins, effectively meaning that the Fed was “greenlighting legal manipulation of the stock market.” Indeed, says Prins, “The Dow soared.”
Prins writes further that “Instead of financing speculative bubbles at the hands of the big private banks, central banks should finance large investment and recovery programs.

[moka]

This maybe of int to some, my eyes quickly glazed over.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/meet-the-feds-global-plunge-protection-team/ (https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/05/meet-the-feds-global-plunge-protection-team/)
Thanks for posting Joshuatree. On the side bar of the article it says the Fed’s Emergency Loan Operations to Wall Street’s Trading Firms Began on September 17, 2019 – Months Before the Coronavirus COVID-19 Had Emerged in China or Anywhere Else in the World. That Strongly Suggests to Us that Wall Street Banks Had a Serious Problem Independent of the Virus Outbreak.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks for posting Joshuatree. On the side bar of the article it says the Fed’s Emergency Loan Operations to Wall Street’s Trading Firms Began on September 17, 2019 – Months Before the Coronavirus COVID-19 Had Emerged in China or Anywhere Else in the World. That Strongly Suggests to Us that Wall Street Banks Had a Serious Problem Independent of the Virus Outbreak.

You do know that the Fed is not a government institution, right? It is a private consortium of the worlds richest financiers, only concerned with their own profitability which means sustaining the mirage of economic stability by intervention in monetary policy, which by law they are entitled and expected to do. Now there is a truely ****ed up system! Especially being the banker for the worlds largest superpower. The mind boggles.

[moka]

“The Fed absolved itself of all responsibility for financial stability in the big bank landscape in June 2017 when it allowed thirty-four of the largest Wall Street banks, including the Big Six, to pass its stress tests. In turn, the banks took this opportunity to buy more of their own shares, elevating their stock prices rather than expanding their loan services for small businesses and Main Street customers.”

This maneuver by the Fed resulted in announcements that Wall Street banks planned “to buy back $92.8 billion of their own stock as a direct response to the Fed’s blessing,” notes Prins, effectively meaning that the Fed was “greenlighting legal manipulation of the stock market.” Indeed, says Prins, “The Dow soared.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1898485/this-years-stress-test-for-big-banks-is-real-the-coronavirus-pandemic
This Year's Stress Test For Big Banks Is Real: the Coronavirus Pandemic

The Fed said Friday it is adjusting its annual "stress tests" for banks to incorporate lenders' performance during the coronavirus-triggered downturn, which is worse than the hypothetical scenarios that the central bank previously planned to use.
For instance, the Fed's hypothetical severe recession imagined U.S. gross domestic product dropping 9.9% in the second quarter and unemployment hitting 6.1% by the end of June.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month predicted GDP would contract at an annual rate of 25% in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate would hit 13% in June this year and still be at 10% in December.

[bull....]

this was the event to watch as mentioned yesterday and boo hoo the market didnt like it. anyway i cant see how banks , insurance companies etc would survive if the whole world goes negative rates and looking at the performance of bank stock prices the market must think so too

The Fed won't use negative interest rates to counteract the coronavirus recession, chairman Jerome Powell says


https://www.businessinsider.com.au/negative-interest-rates-not-considered-federal-reserve-policy-jerome-powell-2020-5?r=US&IR=T


looks like trump has been reading black monday thread lol


Trump warns that ‘rich guys’ could be talking down stock market to profit


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/trump-warns-rich-guys-could-be-talking-down-stock-market-to-profit.html


and trump is ratcheting up pressure on china

Trump on China: ’100 Trade Deals’ wouldn’t make up for coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/trump-on-china-100-trade-deals-wouldnt-make-up-for-coronavirus.html

[clip]

this was the event to watch as mentioned yesterday and boo hoo the market didnt like it. anyway i cant see how banks , insurance companies etc would survive if the whole world goes negative rates and looking at the performance of bank stock prices the market must think so too

The Fed won't use negative interest rates to counteract the coronavirus recession, chairman Jerome Powell says


https://www.businessinsider.com.au/negative-interest-rates-not-considered-federal-reserve-policy-jerome-powell-2020-5?r=US&IR=T


looks like trump has been reading black monday thread lol


Trump warns that ‘rich guys’ could be talking down stock market to profit


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/trump-warns-rich-guys-could-be-talking-down-stock-market-to-profit.html


and trump is ratcheting up pressure on china

Trump on China: ’100 Trade Deals’ wouldn’t make up for coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/trump-on-china-100-trade-deals-wouldnt-make-up-for-coronavirus.html

Thanks for this

[bull....]

Thanks for this

clip are you able to post your chart showing the sideways channel you had

[clip]

clip are you able to post your chart showing the sideways channel you had

toeing the line

11574

[bull....]

toeing the line

11574

thx im considering if i should break down channel trade or trade it of the bottom for a small bounce ( rsi is oversold a bit on the hourlies)

[winner69]

Something wrong with the NZX

It’s nearly nine and no profit upgrades or news of big cap raises or MET deal def going ahead

Going to be a boring day

[jonu]

Something wrong with the NZX

It’s nearly nine and no profit upgrades or news of big cap raises or MET deal def going ahead

Going to be a boring day

Not so sure about that. Dow down and the biggest budget deficit in our history likely to be announced.

[causecelebre]

Not so sure about that. Dow down and the biggest budget deficit in our history likely to be announced.

A green day then ;-/

[bull....]

just back from bunnings very busy , no social distancing really too busy , briscoes , mall not that busy driving past. xmas busier. anyway see my bounce trade on wall st going alright at the moment i wont get to greedy

[bull....]

RBNZ announced a war on term deposits yesterday , vowing to drive them right down to benefit mortgage borrowing , banks are now dropping rates today

Term deposit rates dive deep into unexplored territory, at record lows with the strong prospect of sinking further to very dim depths. Savers are realising you can't fight the RBNZ and its LSAP bazooka

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/105012/term-deposit-rates-dive-deep-unexplored-territory-record-lows-strong


dont fight the RBNZ they want your money spent lol cause next to nothing term deposits , many companies wont pay dividends for the for seeable future or at the best lower dividends. the plan is too make spending the only game in town

[macduffy]

dont fight the RBNZ they want your money spent lol cause next to nothing term deposits , many companies wont pay dividends for the for seeable future or at the best lower dividends. the plan is too make spending the only game in town

….and that will just see more maturing T/D's ending up in the sharemarket and further inflating asset prices. I guess that suits me.

[bull....]

….and that will just see more maturing T/D's ending up in the sharemarket and further inflating asset prices. I guess that suits me.

could quite possibly , although as someone mentioned on here already certain part of that market will never shift there money no matter what the rate. oversea's experience shows so too.

[bull....]

dont believe the RBNZ is after your money



the Kiwi central bank said “will become an option” early next year.
RBNZ now believes negative interest rates of minus 2 per cent would be required to achieve its inflation and employment targets.

New Zealand readies banks for negative rates


https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/new-zealand-readies-banks-for-negative-rates-20200513-p54sl5

which guess means you will pay too keep your money in the bank next year maybe


hence bank shares are likely to be terrible investments as there nim narrows along with all the debt solvencies coming. sort of explains why they havnt partaked in the bear rally

[bull....]

pretty poor budget , more lollies (free money) for business owners to delay the unemployment spike to after the election lol , housing that wont be built ( kiwibuild comes to mind) no iniatives for growth just a lollie scramble with tax payers to foot the bill later on.

nothing to stop the wave of hardship coming and bigger low income group supported by more welfare.

see the volumes are well down on the nzx today , punters gone back to the pokies

[Timesurfer]

see the volumes are well down on the nzx today , punters gone back to the pokies

Probably because the budget was so full of the certainties businesses are hanging out for. Until Jones or Winston throw the money up in the air we still have no real idea of who is going to grab it. Although, horses are obviously their addiction rather than pokies.

[moka]

pretty poor budget , more lollies (free money) for business owners to delay the unemployment spike to after the election lol , housing that wont be built ( kiwibuild comes to mind) no iniatives for growth just a lollie scramble with tax payers to foot the bill later on.

nothing to stop the wave of hardship coming and bigger low income group supported by more welfare.

see the volumes are well down on the nzx today , punters gone back to the pokies

Bull, you say it is a pretty poor budget, and I am interested to know what you think would have been better, so list three or four things that would have made it a better budget in your opinion.

[Panda-NZ-]

RBNZ announced a war on term deposits yesterday , vowing to drive them right down to benefit mortgage borrowing , banks are now dropping rates today



Yes the nzx has good prospects longer term due to people having little alternative. In the short term people moving to cash may cause some changes but while these rates are low it's hard to see that people will avoid it for long.

[bull....]

Bull, you say it is a pretty poor budget, and I am interested to know what you think would have been better, so list three or four things that would have made it a better budget in your opinion.

im a bit rushed today so dont have much time today

ive said on this thread before about bring back int students , leverage our good covid position can be done other industries as well
invest in business start ups , no good doing all the retraining etc if no jobs later anyway
money should have been better targeted
eg last yr free study not first
tourism ad spending waste money
a lot of wage subsidy is just delaying the enevitable would have been better spent increasing job seeker

anyway lots more but im rushed today so enjoy your day

[clip]

Chart today, hope your bounce trade still open bull

11578

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12332135

Trump threatens to cut off all relationship with China.

Hope it happens!

Can’t wait to see the life support system of the US$ as reserve currency cut off and US forced to live within its means.

Bring it on!

Keep your powder dry though as could be some great bargains coming up in the US market.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12332135

Trump threatens to cut off all relationship with China.

Hope it happens!

Can’t wait to see the life support system of the US$ as reserve currency cut off and US forced to live within its means.

Bring it on!

Keep your powder dry though as could be some great bargains coming up in the US market.

Impossible. Trump will not and can not cut ties to China.

Just ask yourself from where the liar in chief would source the red MAGA hats to distinguish his idiotic followers? They are made in China ...

Obviously - he would need as well to find quite fast new sources for clothes / car parts / medication / electronic components / cell phones and many other crucial products. Obviously - the idiot does not know that most of these things are produced in China, but his suffering country for sure would find out quite soon.

[causecelebre]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12332135

Trump threatens to cut off all relationship with China.

Hope it happens!

Can’t wait to see the life support system of the US$ as reserve currency cut off and US forced to live within its means.

Bring it on!

Keep your powder dry though as could be some great bargains coming up in the US market.

More blow from an arseclown to fuel the fire of anti-chinese sentiment of his constituency in a translucent attempt to deflect away the reality of his singularly inept response to the virus

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12332135

Trump threatens to cut off all relationship with China.

Hope it happens!

Can’t wait to see the life support system of the US$ as reserve currency cut off and US forced to live within its means.

Bring it on!

Keep your powder dry though as could be some great bargains coming up in the US market.

Remember the mantra, before infrastructure investment to recover an ailing economy, is start a war. The USA is good at that.

[percy]

Remember the mantra, before infrastructure investment to recover an ailing economy, is start a war. The USA is good at that.

Most probably another USA Civil war.
Wonder whether it will be North verses South again,or East Coast verses West Coast this time.

[Baa_Baa]

Most probably another USA Civil war.
Wonder whether it will be North verses South again,or East Coast verses West Coast this time.

No, a civil war is not productive, it needs to be an international war that no one understands, but that they blindly accept (WMD anyone?) that the government lacky Fed can print endless supplies of money into fighting and by doing so recover the economy and Patriot support. History tells us this. Look back at how many enemies have been fabricated that when war was declared upon them, the money machines went into overdrive. Save the economy, start a war. History is full of it. Just look.

[NeverQuestion]

No, a civil war is not productive, it needs to be an international war that no one understands, but that they blindly accept (WMD anyone?) that the government lacky Fed can print endless supplies of money into fighting and by doing so recover the economy and Patriot support. History tells us this. Look back at how many enemies have been fabricated that when war was declared upon them, the money machines went into overdrive. Save the economy, start a war. History is full of it. Just look.

Ok, So this is a common myth. When people say we need another war, they should be thinking..What made America come out of two world wars as an economic powerhouse?! You have to understand that America entered both world wars late. They had entered it late, but they were supplying war materials to the rest of the allies well before. Countries who found their very existence threatened were all too willing to convert gold into war supplies to keep the fight going. It was the economic might of America, the tons of gold they made out of it, and the fact they were never seriously damaged by the war that made America what it is today. Yes, there was a depression prior. But you can't say that was why we need a war now. Things are different. The manufacturing might of the world is now China, not America as it once was. The last Iraq war cost American Tax payer 1.922 Trillion, and I very much doubt they made that much money out of it.

[BlackPeter]

Most probably another USA Civil war.
Wonder whether it will be North verses South again,or East Coast verses West Coast this time.

Nah - must be the coastal ring versus the flyover states ... or in other words the decent Americans against Trumps swamp.

[GOAT]

Impossible. Trump will not and can not cut ties to China.

Just ask yourself from where the liar in chief would source the red MAGA hats to distinguish his idiotic followers? They are made in China ...

Obviously - he would need as well to find quite fast new sources for clothes / car parts / medication / electronic components / cell phones and many other crucial products. Obviously - the idiot does not know that most of these things are produced in China, but his suffering country for sure would find out quite soon.

Fact check: Official 'Make America Great Again' hats are made in Louisiana and California.

[Balance]

Fact check: Official 'Make America Great Again' hats are made in Louisiana and California.

Not strictly true - caps are but not the hats & the other merchandise like T-shirts etc.

https://abcnews4.com/news/local/where-is-maga-merchandise-made

[moka]

im a bit rushed today so dont have much time today

ive said on this thread before about bring back int students , leverage our good covid position can be done other industries as well
invest in business start ups , no good doing all the retraining etc if no jobs later anyway
money should have been better targeted
eg last yr free study not first
tourism ad spending waste money
a lot of wage subsidy is just delaying the enevitable would have been better spent increasing job seeker

anyway lots more but im rushed today so enjoy your day
Thanks for posting Bull. Grant Robertson is in favour of bringing back international students when it is safe to do so.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12330457 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12330457)

Finance Minister Grant Robertson: Govt may open borders to international students. "While at the moment it is clearly not a time where people are going to be able to come in, if we continue with our success of getting on top of the virus, then that, along with Australia, marks us out as a place people will want to come to as an international student," he said. "It is an area of opportunity.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12330321
Govt considers reopening country for $5b international student industry. And Chris Hipkins says 'It's quite possible that we would be able to work with international education providers to manage a period of quarantine at the beginning of, say, a year's worth of study so they can come into New Zealand. 'That's something we're working through with the sector."

[BlackPeter]

Fact check: Official 'Make America Great Again' hats are made in Louisiana and California.

Well, I said MAGA hats, didn't I? They are made in China.


“Hats are made in China, shirts that come from overseas, but they get the labor done here, but it helps out either way,” said Granada.

from:
https://abcnews4.com/news/local/where-is-maga-merchandise-made

Maybe time you get your facts right?

[moka]

invest in business start ups , no good doing all the retraining etc if no jobs later anyway
money should have been better targeted
eg last yr free study not first
a lot of wage subsidy is just delaying the enevitable would have been better spent increasing job seeker

anyway lots more but im rushed today so enjoy your day
I'm pleased to see you support increasing Jobseeker benefit. The retraining package is targeted to where the need is. Good to see it includes apprentices. Education Minister Chris Hipkins said making targeted vocational training courses free – for all ages, not just school leavers – over the next two years will help people who have lost their jobs retrain and also allow new employees in some essential services to train on the job.
"It will include courses linked to industry skills needs, in building and construction, agriculture, and manufacturing, and also vocational courses like community health, counselling and care work. The fund will be available from 1 July 2020," he said. More than 100,000 students and apprentices look set to get free training for two years from July thanks to a $1.6 billion retraining package.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332038
(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332038)
Agriculture Minister Damien O'Connor said the primary sector needed about 50,000 more workers and the funding would help place at least 10,000 people in jobs in the intermediate term.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/416636/budget-2020-trades-training-gets-1-point-6bn-boost

[GOAT]

Well, I said MAGA hats, didn't I? They are made in China.



from:
https://abcnews4.com/news/local/where-is-maga-merchandise-made

Maybe time you get your facts right?

You are incorrect. Those made in China are fake knock offs and not official MAGA hats.
https://apnews.com/afs:Content:6391630154
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/donald-trump-hat-china/

Here is video evidence that they are being created in the USA. Can you show video evidence of official MAGA hats being created in China?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmpqYRkR9F8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE8M7cL00U4

The latter video, at the 5 minute mark addresses the argument of "Hats being made in China".