Black Monday

[causecelebre]

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-shops.html

Other than the social media fascination with post Iso Macca's and the Kentucky Ducky, it will be interesting to see if this plays out here similarly. Our house has had a modicum of austerity before CV and only expanded since. I can't see discretionary spending increasing. That said, I live in a "leafy suburb" and the posters on the local facebook group can only talk about which restaurant they can get take out from....hmmmm

[Balance]

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/22/world/europe/22reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-shops.html

Other than the social media fascination with post Iso Macca's and the Kentucky Ducky, it will be interesting to see if this plays out here similarly. Our house has had a modicum of austerity before CV and only expanded since. I can't see discretionary spending increasing. That said, I live in a "leafy suburb" and the posters on the local facebook group can only talk about which restaurant they can get take out from....hmmmm

Talk to your friends and neighbours, as I have, and you will find that none is in a big hurry to expose themselves to potential infection. That’s the main reason why normalisation will take a while.

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12326851

Helicopter money an option for NZ if needed to get NZ economy recover.

Think of all that lovely $$$$$ being pumped out into the economy. All created out of thin air.

Then, think of what it means for your money in the bank.

[arc]

Yup, 100%. Even those talking about which food they will eat first post lock-down will mostly only splurge a few dollars here and there initially before the new normal kicks in. The vast majority, if Im reading the tea leaves correctly, are either already all out of discretionary funds, or, are putting what ever they have aside in case the rainy day becomes a storm. It is going to be a brutal next 12-24 months for many.


Indeed. This will be a long term issue. Return to normality requires a global recovery.

[bull....]

if you look at traffic congestion in wuhan since the lock down finished it spikes monday to friday and flat lines on the weekends suggesting people go to work but then stay in there bubbles on the weekend. could be the new norm? I like the idea of helicopter money for every household except you dont need to give it to the top 1%

[winner69]

if you look at traffic congestion in wuhan since the lock down finished it spikes monday to friday and flat lines on the weekends suggesting people go to work but then stay in there bubbles on the weekend. could be the new norm? I like the idea of helicopter money for every household except you dont need to give it to the top 1%

That’s generous of you bull ....not expecting the helicopter mobey

[Balance]

https://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/news/2020/04/21/bill-miller-this-is-one-of-the-5-greatest-buying.html

Another billionaire investor describes current crisis as one of the 5 greatest opportunities he has experienced in his lifetime :

1. 1973-74 Vietnam War and after Nixon resigned & the US market crashed,
2. 1982 when Mexico defaulted,
3. 1987 following Black Monday market crash and
4. 2008 - 2009 during the GFC.

[dobby41]

Before the GFC our saving rate was very poor.
During and after the GFC people stopped spending (for obvious reasons) and started saving.
This, of course, wasn't good for the economy and people were being exhorted to spend.
Same will happen this time.
Oh the irony!

[Balance]

Surely that doesnt surprise anyone?

The shame is that billionaires could see this as a one in a life time opportunity to use their wealth to help the world, not just line their pockets further. But again, no surprises there...

The billionaires in the US do donate very generously to charities. Think of Warren Buffett & Bill Gates.

It is in their nature as investors to seize on investment opportunities - that is their job.

Pity we have so many so-called doomsday merchants who preach doom without balance for their own ends. To me, they are worst.

[arc]

if you look at traffic congestion in wuhan since the lock down finished it spikes monday to friday and flat lines on the weekends suggesting people go to work but then stay in there bubbles on the weekend. could be the new norm? I like the idea of helicopter money for every household except you dont need to give it to the top 1%


Apparently the people are slowly returning to town centre. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/revisiting-wuhan-traffic
Wuhan looks clean and tidy. Probably from all the street washing and disinfecting.

People on trains are sprayed when they exit
'We were taken to the ground level in a special lift and handed over to workers dressed in white protective suits, sorted by district. Passengers were also misted in alcohol-based disinfectant, while police officers in protective gear stood and watched.

[Entrep]

How is this a buy opportunity if prices are back to where they were 2-3 months ago?

[causecelebre]

... I like the idea of helicopter money for every household except you dont need to give it to the top 1%

Yeah...they already have one to fly them to Iso on Waiheke

[Balance]

How is this a buy opportunity if prices are back to where they were 2-3 months ago?

You have already missed out on the capitulation of 23/24 March.

Will be another 10 years before you get some of the capitulated kind of bargains again - OCA at 40c, SKC at $1.29, SKO at 86c and ARV at 92c for example.

And prices are not back to where they were 2-3 months ago. You are looking at the index - you need to look at individual stocks.

But not to worry, it's a usual mistake of newbies investing in the NZX.

[causecelebre]

Surely that doesnt surprise anyone?

The shame is that billionaires could see this as a one in a life time opportunity to use their wealth to help the world, not just line their pockets further. But again, no surprises there...

Ah but they do. It's a good way to offset tax and increase self-serving policy advocacy such as "donor-advised" funds and, more importantly (for them), an argument against wealth tax. Arts and and Science are big recipients - not hunger or social equality. How else it Trump going to buy that painting of himself on the tax payers dime?

[bull....]

That’s generous of you bull ....not expecting the helicopter mobey

of course the other option is to allow kiwisavers to withdraw some money, be the biggest stimulus ever and would not cost govt anything.

[Entrep]

You have already missed out on the capitulation of 23/24 March.

Will be another 10 years before you get some of the capitulated kind of bargains again - OCA at 40c, SKC at $1.29, SKO at 86c and ARV at 92c for example.

And prices are not back to where they were 2-3 months ago. You are looking at the index - you need to look at individual stocks.

But not to worry, it's a usual mistake of newbies investing in the NZX.

lol, you do make me laugh Balance.

1. I bought two of those four shares you listed, amongst others, on those dates.
2. Who said I'm looking at the index?
3. Newbie? Ziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing!

[Balance]

Ah but they do. It's a good way to offset tax and increase self-serving policy advocacy such as "donor-advised" funds and, more importantly (for them), an argument against wealth tax. Arts and and Science are big recipients - not hunger or social equality. How else it Trump going to buy that painting of himself on the tax payers dime?

I think RnT is thinking too much of NZ millionaires & billionaires?

[Balance]

lol, you do make me laugh Balance.

Good. We all need a good laugh from time to time.

So tell us about the stocks where their prices are back to where they were 2-3 months ago, and for what reasons.

Don't look at the index which is skewed towards several index-heavy weighted stocks which are performing extremely well - like ATM, FPH, EBO, the relatively resilient utility sector (energy, ports, internet), the essential industry healthcare operators & retirement villages and the agricultural sector (SCL, SEK, PGW).

Real damage done is not the index - but the stocks exposed to the carnage like Air NZ, THL, SKC, MCK, SKY etc.

The NZX index has NEVER been a fair reflection of the NZ economy.

[causecelebre]

of course the other option is to allow kiwisavers to withdraw some money, be the biggest stimulus ever and would not cost govt anything.

Not this govt...but the one down the road funding a raft of welfare pensioners. But wait we could raise the super age. No we can't they vote. Wherever the $ is coming from the issues are just getting kicked down the road

Sorry i'm ranting a bit today. Too much house time

[bull....]

Not this govt...but the one down the road funding a raft of welfare pensioners. But wait we could raise the super age. No we can't they vote. Wherever the $ is coming from the issues are just getting kicked down the road

Sorry i'm ranting a bit today. Too much house time

think the fund managers and kiwisaver managers have been pressuring the govt not to allow kiwisaver withdrawls would affect there fee income to much , who cares about mainstreet struggling to pay the bills as long as the gravy train isnt interrupted.
your right what ever they do the kids can pay for it later is probably the attitude.

why on the subject of rebooting the economy the idea of allowing rich people into NZ should be allowed with iron clad guarantees they will invest in local businesses to support job growth not land as drury saying

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/prosper/121209460/international-property-investment-could-kickstart-construction-sector-drury

[Balance]

lol, you do make me laugh Balance.

1. I bought two of those four shares you listed, amongst others, on those dates.
2. Who said I'm looking at the index?
3. Newbie? Ziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing!

Bluntly, because only a newbie would write what you wrote - unless you were writing about the index.

Refer to my post #7286.

[Entrep]

Bluntly, because only a newbie would write what you wrote - unless you were writing about the index.

Disagree.

Re your point about resilient stocks, let's take CEN for example. That is well within 10% of its prior COVID lows. How is that now a buying opportunity based off COVID occuring? Was it such a screaming back at the prior point time? How does COVID occurring make it such a screaming buy when the price is the same?

Even notwithstanding that, other metrics to consider price and what it is being based on/denoted in (i.e. not just $), such as P/E, can be used. Investopedia has some good easy to understand info.

[Balance]

Disagree.

Re your point about resilient stocks, let's take CEN for example. That is well within 10% of its prior COVID lows. How is that now a buying opportunity based off COVID occuring? Was it such a screaming back at the prior point time? How does COVID occurring make it such a screaming buy when the price is the same?

Even notwithstanding that, other metrics to consider price and what it is being based on/denoted in (i.e. not just $), such as P/E, can be used. Investopedia has some good easy to understand info.

Investopedia?

And from a valuation standpoint, what has the cost of capital done in the last 3 months?

I rest my case.

[Balance]

Haha, Oh look, I know a lot of rich people in NZ and abroad give a lot of their wealth away (it would be nice if it were more of those people though). I guess I get a little pissy when the super rich, in the first instance, see this as an opportunity to make more money, when there are millions of people out there, who for this first times in their lives are struggling to put food on the table for their kids. In my utopian world, the first thing rich people might think of in times like this is who can they help.

I am also reminded of the charts that illustrate how much money people give away (as a proportion of their income), by income level. That paints a sobering picture.

They should make their money, RnT - because that's what they do as their profession. Just like doctors save lives as their profession.

Then, what do they do with the money they make?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/06/01/14-billionaires-giving-pledge-bill-gates-warren-buffet/362275001/

Hope the article cheers you up a bit that it's not all about making money and keeping it for their own creature comforts and ego.

[bull....]

so even china is handing out cash ( helicopter money to its citizens to spur recovery

China's coronavirus stimulus opts for coupons in a world awash with cash handouts
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-23/coronavirus-china-coupon-stimulus-economic-recovery/12169520?section=business

[Balance]

so even china is handing out cash ( helicopter money to its citizens to spur recovery

China's coronavirus stimulus opts for coupons in a world awash with cash handouts
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-23/coronavirus-china-coupon-stimulus-economic-recovery/12169520?section=business

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

[bull....]

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

yes nothing yet in NZ

[Balance]

yes nothing yet in NZ

Comes August or a month before the election, expect one - with Cindy’s compliments. No doubt there will be a letter with her smiling face & signature too.

But if you are on a marginal tax rate of 33%, hard potatoes - no helicopter money for you.

[dobby41]

Comes August or a month before the election, expect one - with Cindy’s compliments. No doubt there will be a letter with her smiling face & signature too.

But if you are on a marginal tax rate of 33%, hard potatoes - no helicopter money for you.

We really do need a predictions thread to keep track of all the ones made here.

[bull....]

Comes August or a month before the election, expect one - with Cindy’s compliments. No doubt there will be a letter with her smiling face & signature too.

But if you are on a marginal tax rate of 33%, hard potatoes - no helicopter money for you.

no needs to be sooner than that , heaps people be unemployed by then. once the wage subsidy is finished companies be laying people of in droves to pocket the difference.

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/were-entering-a-new-bull-market-oppenheimer-analyst-203609002.html

New bull market trend in place.

Pigs can fly?

[bottomfeeder]

More chance of a correction when it truly sinks in the amount of money thrown at economies around the world. We need to control our exuberance when positive news of any sort is paraded before us, or we will be caught by a second wave of selling.

[stoploss]

no needs to be sooner than that , heaps people be unemployed by then. once the wage subsidy is finished companies be laying people of in droves to pocket the difference.
Pocket what difference ?

[bull....]

Pocket what difference ?

as an example if you have to give someone 4 weeks notice before redundancy maybe you could start that next month so the govt is paying the notice period rather than you so they are gone by the time wage subsidy finishes. then you have saved yourself 4 weeks payout under normal circumstances.

thats why there be mass layoffs when the wage subsidy finishes. its already starting i know plenty people have been given notice this week for meetings to start soon about there layoff.

[Balance]

as an example if you have to give someone 4 weeks notice before redundancy maybe you could start that next month so the govt is paying the notice period rather than you so they are gone by the time wage subsidy finishes. then you have saved yourself 4 weeks payout

Illegal practice and constitute fraud.

[Cadalac123]

Illegal practice and constitute fraud.

Lmao bull..., great ideas as usual

[Entrep]

Lmao bull..., great ideas as usual

He was hardly promoting it as an option businesses should consider.

Perhaps a more pressing question on "the law" is when did it become illegal to be bearish around here??

[bull....]

It took only five weeks for the U.S. economy to wipe out all the job gains it added over the last 11 years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/the-us-economy-has-now-erased-all-job-gains-since-the-great-recession.html


My guess NZ will have similar headlines june/july


U.S. Unemployment Waves Keep Hitting With Millions More Claims
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/u-s-jobless-claims-at-4-43-million-in-labor-rout-s-fifth-week

[Balance]

Comes August or a month before the election, expect one - with Cindy’s compliments. No doubt there will be a letter with her smiling face & signature too.

But if you are on a marginal tax rate of 33%, hard potatoes - no helicopter money for you.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/coronavirus-helicopter-money-for-everyone-an-option-to-boost-economy-grant-robertson.html

Watch for the helicopter money in the next fiscal stimulus package to be announced in May budget.

To be paid out just before the September election - what a winner for Cindy & her bunch of incompetents!

[ynot]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/coronavirus-helicopter-money-for-everyone-an-option-to-boost-economy-grant-robertson.html

Watch for the helicopter money in the next fiscal stimulus package to be announced in May budget.

To be paid out just before the September election - what a winner for Cindy & her bunch of incompetents!

For all the good it would do they may as well just put a match to any handout. Like you say, only good for buying votes.

[dobby41]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/coronavirus-helicopter-money-for-everyone-an-option-to-boost-economy-grant-robertson.html

Watch for the helicopter money in the next fiscal stimulus package to be announced in May budget.

To be paid out just before the September election - what a winner for Cindy & her bunch of incompetents!

About as good as your other bull***t predictions.

[Balance]

For all the good it would do they may as well just put a match to any handout. Like you say, only good for buying votes.

Done properly in conjunction with other fiscal policies, it can work - Australia showed that during the GFC.

[bull....]

Coronavirus support measures see hundreds of thousands of Australians access superannuation early
The Australian Taxation Office has approved 456,000 applications, totalling $3.8 billion

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-23/coronavirus-sees-thousands-granted-early-access-superannuation/12177046?section=business

3.8 billion stimulus to the economy not bad

[ynot]

Done properly in conjunction with other fiscal policies, it can work - Australia showed that during the GFC.

I remember Gerry Harvey did ok in Ausi when they handed out $1000 in 2009. everyone brought a new tv !

[Balance]

I remember Gerry Harvey did ok in Ausi when they handed out $1000 in 2009. everyone brought a new tv !

Australia is the only OECD country NOT to suffer a recession since 1991.

Proactive government policies to cushion any downturn and maintain economic & consumer confidence played a big part in that unrivaled record.

Unfortunately, this virus outbreak is likely to see Oz lose that enviable record.

[Balance]

China to the rescue again for the NZ economy?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327039

Chief executive David Surveyor said trade with China was back to where it was before the outbreak .

"China is going well. It is in a good space."

[workingdad]

That’s excellent news. Whilst on the cards perhaps sooner than anticipated? Our primary industry is certainly going to help the economic recovery.

[kiora]

Even the log stockpile nearly gone.
The forestry guys better start chopping that wall of wood again so our domestic supply is available too

[dobby41]

Even the log stockpile nearly gone.
The forestry guys better start chopping that wall of wood again so our domestic supply is available too

That was a surprise - they snuck those out.
Domestic mills asking for logs so looking good.

[Balance]

That was a surprise - they snuck those out.
Domestic mills asking for logs so looking good.

And the China market has opened up just in time for our apple and kiwifruit exports.

Dairying kicks in from June/July.

[bull....]

Coronavirus: Record fall for credit card spending in March, Reserve Bank says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121242738/coronavirus-record-fall-for-credit-card-spending-in-march-reserve-bank-says

this data was before lock down so they are saying april will be dire

[dobby41]

And the China market has opened up just in time for our apple and kiwifruit exports.

Dairying kicks in from June/July.

It was the logs I was thinking of.
We had a huge stockpile and it seems to have gone.
Maybe Russia stopped sending logs to China so they need ours again?

[Manukatana]

who here thinks NZX market will go down this afternoon?

[bull....]

heres a april log report , not quite back to business levels yet

http://www.laurieforestry.co.nz/Monthly-Newsletter

[Balance]

no needs to be sooner than that , heaps people be unemployed by then. once the wage subsidy is finished companies be laying people of in droves to pocket the difference.

You one of them, bull ...?:p

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12327324

More than $17 million paid to businesses through the wage subsidy scheme has had to be refunded to the Government after businesses which were not entitled to the scheme took the money.

The Government is now looking into criminal prosecutions for businesses who have wrongly taken taxpayers' money.

[workingdad]

who here thinks NZX market will go down this afternoon?

My guess is yes, Friday afternoon of a long weekend.... a lot can happen in three days

[Manukatana]

Us market futures are not looking so well so may affect mood of the market here too?

[Sideshow Bob]

It was the logs I was thinking of.
We had a huge stockpile and it seems to have gone.
Maybe Russia stopped sending logs to China so they need ours again?

Logging in NZ stopped in February, long before the lockdown in NZ. Probably all shipped and gone.....

Looks like restarting Tuesday.

[bull....]

You one of them, bull ...?:p

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12327324

More than $17 million paid to businesses through the wage subsidy scheme has had to be refunded to the Government after businesses which were not entitled to the scheme took the money.

The Government is now looking into criminal prosecutions for businesses who have wrongly taken taxpayers' money.

this is what i was talking about

The Warehouse asks staff to take 10 to 20% pay cuts or face redundancy


In an email to staff, the retail giant asked staff earning between $60,000 and $100,000 to take a 10 per cent pay cut until June 30, while staff earning above $100,000 were asked to take a 20 per cent pay cut. Those earning below $60,000 will not need to take pay cut.
Workers were told if they did not consider the temporary pay cut by Friday, they would be consulted on "other options including potential redundancy

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121239663/coronavirus-the-warehouse-asks-staff-to-take-10-to-20-pay-cuts-or-face-redundancy

start redundancy talks now and there last day will be when the subsidy finishes , perfectly legal i understand. and the warehouse have claimed the subsidy , i believe this type of thing will likely be mass imployed. then they pocket the difference

[Southern_Belle]

Logging in NZ stopped in February, long before the lockdown in NZ. Probably all shipped and gone.....

Looks like restarting Tuesday.Correct. I have a brother in logging.... back to work Tuesday

[Balance]

this is what i was talking about

The Warehouse asks staff to take 10 to 20% pay cuts or face redundancy


In an email to staff, the retail giant asked staff earning between $60,000 and $100,000 to take a 10 per cent pay cut until June 30, while staff earning above $100,000 were asked to take a 20 per cent pay cut. Those earning below $60,000 will not need to take pay cut.
Workers were told if they did not consider the temporary pay cut by Friday, they would be consulted on "other options including potential redundancy

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121239663/coronavirus-the-warehouse-asks-staff-to-take-10-to-20-pay-cuts-or-face-redundancy

start redundancy talks now and there last day will be when the subsidy finishes , perfectly legal i understand. and the warehouse have claimed the subsidy , i believe this type of thing will likely be mass imployed. then they pocket the difference

I doubt very very much that anyone will be taking redundancy in today's job environment.

A 10% pay cut is nothing vs being made redundant.

I wished that these kind of deals were available during the 1987 to 1991 recession when there were wholesale layoffs and those of us with jobs, watched helplessly as our colleagues were mercilessly laid off.

[Panda-NZ-]

I doubt very very much that anyone will be taking redundancy in today's job environment.

A 10% pay cut is nothing vs being made redundant.



I'm surprised more is not cut but that may be the criteria of the wage subsidy where 80% of pay must be recieved. If a company can recieve quality workers it will be cut to the minimum possible in many cases.

[bull....]

KFC, Pizza Hut owner asks staff to accept reduced hours or face redundancy
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121245595/coronavirus-kfc-pizza-hut-owner-asks-staff-to-accept-reduced-hours-or-face-redundancy

the avalanche is starting

[dobby41]

KFC, Pizza Hut owner asks staff to accept reduced hours or face redundancy
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121245595/coronavirus-kfc-pizza-hut-owner-asks-staff-to-accept-reduced-hours-or-face-redundancy

the avalanche is starting

And there will be more as you suggest.
Unfortunately not all of them will be reasonable - the impact being put back on the lowest paid.

[kiora]

Coronavirus: Record fall for credit card spending in March, Reserve Bank says
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121242738/coronavirus-record-fall-for-credit-card-spending-in-march-reserve-bank-says

this data was before lock down so they are saying april will be dire

My biggest spends by far on CC where donations.
I feel we are all due a present to ourselves after this :)

[nztx]

Does anyone know if people who have a part time salaried job, and who also have a secondary income source from contract work, are eligible for the (par time) wage subsidy as a sole trader (assuming they meet the 30% reduction in income threshold)? I struggled to find info on this.

Is the Contract Work outside salaried employment returned by the individual as self employed earnings after expenses deducted from it ?

If so, IMO the individual would qualify provided the 30% + turnover reduction rule is satisfied

Here is the link to the self employed application form @ Winz site:

https://services.workandincome.govt.nz/ess/trader_applications/new

Here was Q&A info as it was 12 days:

"The following from the Winz Q&A page covers your position:


https://workandincome.govt.nz/products/a-z-benefits/employer-questions-and-answers.html#null

Multiple Applications:

"Q: I'm an employee who works full time for a company that hasn’t been impacted by COVID-19, and I’m also self-employed. Can I apply for the wage subsidy using the self-employed application?

Yes. You can apply under the self-employed application, as long as you meet the usual criteria for your impacted business. We pay employers and self-employed contractors, not individuals. However, if you are only part-time self-employed, then your application should be at the part-time rate.

Q: I’m an employee who works full-time for a company that has been impacted by COVID-19, and my employer has applied for the wage subsidy on my behalf. I’m also self-employed part-time. Can I also apply for the part-time wage subsidy using the self-employed application?

Yes. You can apply for the part-time wage subsidy under the self-employed application, as long as you meet the usual criteria, despite being a named employee on your employer’s application.

Q: I’m an employee who works full-time for a company that has been impacted by COVID-19, and my employer has applied for a wage subsidy on my behalf. I’m also self-employed full-time. Can I also apply for the full-time wage subsidy using the self-employed application?

Yes. You can apply for the full-time wage subsidy under the self-employed application, as long as you can meet the usual criteria, despite being a named employee on your employer’s application."

[nztx]

KFC, Pizza Hut owner asks staff to accept reduced hours or face redundancy
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121245595/coronavirus-kfc-pizza-hut-owner-asks-staff-to-accept-reduced-hours-or-face-redundancy

the avalanche is starting

Yes -- this is just the start

There will be further likely

- Businesses reopening rationalising to new marketplace - potentially another large bundle there ongoing

- Businesses not reopening & shutting up shop for good - potentially another large bundle there shortly too

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00367/nz-food-processing-sectors-key-role-in-nzs-recovery.htm

Denmark beat other European markets. It is better than V shape recovery. Their defensive stocks led the rally. Finally, they recovered fully and trading above their pre-corona level but too pricey according to some.

[Balance]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/415083/trans-tasman-bubble-could-start-more-quickly-than-we-think-peters

Some hope for tourism sector - TransTasman tourism/travel bubble.

[kiora]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00367/nz-food-processing-sectors-key-role-in-nzs-recovery.htm

Denmark beat other European markets. It is better than V shape recovery. Their defensive stocks led the rally. Finally, they recovered fully and trading above their pre-corona level but too pricey according to some.

Where is Denmark?

[clip]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00367/nz-food-processing-sectors-key-role-in-nzs-recovery.htm

Denmark beat other European markets. It is better than V shape recovery. Their defensive stocks led the rally. Finally, they recovered fully and trading above their pre-corona level but too pricey according to some.

Is that link related to the post, or wrong link posted perhaps?

[Valuegrowth]

Is that link related to the post, or wrong link posted perhaps?

No Clip, it is not related to the link. Sorry for the confusion.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00367/nz-food-processing-sectors-key-role-in-nzs-recovery.htm
NZ food processing sector’s key role in NZ’s Recovery

[kiora]

No Clip, it is not related to the link. Sorry for the confusion.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00367/nz-food-processing-sectors-key-role-in-nzs-recovery.htm
NZ food processing sector’s key role in NZ’s Recovery

Packaging just as /more important than most things though

Pak & Save haven't had Cocoa for 3 weeks because they haven't been able to get more packaging from China
Flour same thing for smaller 1 Kg packaging.That is why they only sell in 10 kg bags
Pretty dumb ha
USA dairy processors can't make or have the right packaging facility to package cheese for the supermarket
"impacts of the coronavirus pandemic began to upend the dairy supply chain. Now, dairy prices are in freefall. Even as grocery stores struggle to keep dairy cases stocked, farmers across the country have begun dumping milk that their processors have no room "
https://civileats.com/2020/04/08/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-pushing-the-dairy-crisis-to-the-brink/
"having a foot in each of the food service, ingredients and consumer camps in several markets had given it valuable flexibility as the pandemic situation evolved "
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/121230822/coronavirus-fonterra-riding-wave-of-baked-goods-through-covid19-pandemic?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+25 +April+2020
USA freezers full of beef for the restaurant trade,high fat % so have to grind with lean(Aust/NZ) beef for the burger trade
https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2020/04/14/beef-producers-struggling-amid-plant-shutdowns-supply-chain-disruptions/2994133001/
Potato farmers ploughing in crops
https://www.marketscreener.com/AHOLD-DELHAIZE-N-V-29752127/news/Here-s-why-you-can-t-find-frozen-fries-while-U-S-farmers-are-sitting-on-tons-of-potatoes-30471124/?countview=0

Famine in the midst of plenty

[Balance]

Famine in the midst of plenty

Placing NZ in a superb position to supply food and fresh produce in the Northern Hemisphere autumn & winter (Sep to Jan) and giving our economy a big boost.

[Balance]

https://www.ft.com/content/10d24f35-dee9-4991-a7bd-51be9097a100

Markets have bottomed and will continue to rally, according to analysts in the article.

"What was dismissed as a mere 'bear market rally' qualifies now as a new bull market."

So why the dis-connect between the increasingly grim economic conditions out there vs the steady rally in stock markets?

Simplistically, global efforts by central banks led by the US Federal Reserve to soothe the financial system have been the trigger. And the central banks have been very clear that they will do whatever is needed to cushion the economic downturn and avoid depression.

"Don't fight the Fed'.

Well, that's one view offered by analysts anyway.

There are still many other analysts who believe that economic downturn of this magnitude will tend to produce a lot of head-fake rallies and stomach-churning sell-offs.

[arc]

Packaging just as /more important than most things though

Pak & Save haven't had Cocoa for 3 weeks because they haven't been able to get more packaging from China
Flour same thing for smaller 1 Kg packaging.That is why they only sell in 10 kg bags
Pretty dumb ha
USA dairy processors can't make or have the right packaging facility to package cheese for the supermarket
"impacts of the coronavirus pandemic began to upend the dairy supply chain. Now, dairy prices are in freefall. Even as grocery stores struggle to keep dairy cases stocked, farmers across the country have begun dumping milk that their processors have no room "
https://civileats.com/2020/04/08/the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-pushing-the-dairy-crisis-to-the-brink/
"having a foot in each of the food service, ingredients and consumer camps in several markets had given it valuable flexibility as the pandemic situation evolved "
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/121230822/coronavirus-fonterra-riding-wave-of-baked-goods-through-covid19-pandemic?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+25 +April+2020
USA freezers full of beef for the restaurant trade,high fat % so have to grind with lean(Aust/NZ) beef for the burger trade
https://www.wisfarmer.com/story/news/2020/04/14/beef-producers-struggling-amid-plant-shutdowns-supply-chain-disruptions/2994133001/
Potato farmers ploughing in crops
https://www.marketscreener.com/AHOLD-DELHAIZE-N-V-29752127/news/Here-s-why-you-can-t-find-frozen-fries-while-U-S-farmers-are-sitting-on-tons-of-potatoes-30471124/?countview=0

Famine in the midst of plenty


Yes, a good example of chaos theory in action. These kinds of unexpected ripples will increase in nature and magnitude.
You want another carry bag, and there is a storehouse full of canvas, but the cotton to sew the bag together is unavailable...

Some of it is also a deliberate choice of some companies. Oil/Petrol suppliers are suffering but companies will turn ships away as an oversupply would initiate price decreases... very undesirable.

[nztx]

No Clip, it is not related to the link. Sorry for the confusion.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00367/nz-food-processing-sectors-key-role-in-nzs-recovery.htm
NZ food processing sector’s key role in NZ’s Recovery

What is the underlying ownership of the bulk of our larger Food Processors / Exporters ?

We can point to Japan, USA and undoubtedly others

Do we actually own any of the larger operators as NZ owned, aside from Fonterra ?

[CatO'Tonic]

What is the underlying ownership of the bulk of our larger Food Processors / Exporters ?

We can point to Japan, USA and undoubtedly others

Do we actually own any of the larger operators as NZ owned, aside from Fonterra ?

Talley's and Sealord spring to mind

[nztx]

A number of other Meat & Dairy Co-ops & Co's - but then others have degrees of foreign ownership too like SFF etc ..

[Balance]

Talley's and Sealord spring to mind

Meat processors are now predominantly NZ owned - Alliance, Progressive, Greenlea, Affco.

[nztx]

Primary produce -

T&G - Germany

[Chippie]

A good article on differences between NZ and Aus handling of Covid but with similar results
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-new-zealand-to-go-to-level-three-restrictions-but-theyre-still-tougher-than-australia/news-story/351977dc0d33bb9f656c09064c39f415

[bull....]

The managing director of a construction firm says he has made $150,000 profit from the Government's wage subsidy (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120881575/coronavirus-wage-subsidy-list-reveals-the-scale-of-economic-devastation), and he has no intention of paying it back.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121254612/coronavirus-business-owner-pockets-150000-from-government-wage-subsidy-and-hes-not-paying-it-back

money for jam for savy business people and taxpayers can pay for it later lol

[Balance]

The managing director of a construction firm says he has made $150,000 profit from the Government's wage subsidy (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120881575/coronavirus-wage-subsidy-list-reveals-the-scale-of-economic-devastation), and he has no intention of paying it back.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121254612/coronavirus-business-owner-pockets-150000-from-government-wage-subsidy-and-hes-not-paying-it-back

money for jam for savy business people and taxpayers can pay for it later lol

Read the article carefully - he is following the guidance given to claim the subsidy and the wage subsidy is intended precisely for the purpose of employers keeping workers during the lockdown period.

I have no issue or problem with the so-called 'profit'.

The Reporter needs to gp back to high school and understand what profit is.

[winner69]

Read the article carefully - he is following the guidance given to claim the subsidy and the wage subsidy is intended precisely for the purpose of employers keeping workers during the lockdown period.

I have no issue or problem with the so-called 'profit'.

The Reporter needs to gp back to high school and understand what profit is.

Right on Balance

Mr Black’s employees still have a job .....that’s what the govt wanted ....without a subsidy MR Black May have dispensed with a few.

[thedrunkfish]

Agreed. Also its obvious the subject of the article has an agenda against the Labour govt as well.

[Southern_Belle]

What is the underlying ownership of the bulk of our larger Food Processors / Exporters ?

We can point to Japan, USA and undoubtedly others

Do we actually own any of the larger operators as NZ owned, aside from Fonterra ?What about Keytone Diary, based in Christchurch but listed on ASX. According to their media release they have quadrupled production to keep up with demand.

[Raz]

Right on Balance

Mr Black’s employees still have a job .....that’s what the govt wanted ....without a subsidy MR Black May have dispensed with a few.

Yeah and he sounds bit opinionated and most likely doesn't even understand the declaration his accountant did. He even mentions he may well need the money for staff as off yet...

Its simple, if he has a a month with 30% less turnover, on comparison and the IRD PAYE data, ex post, matches with his employees per application, per subsidy, he is in the clear. His business picked up on the administrative side for the MSD, avoid disruption to their pays and his employees continue to be employed. He should keep to the business he knows rather then speculating on Covid-19 what a self center, unaware, look at me, political, kinda guy. Fell into a trap and has been used...

[Balance]

Don't under-estimate what a glowing report on Australia and NZ could do to prompt the international fund managers to put some or more money into Australasian stocks :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12327588

"The New York Times has heaped praise on Australia and New Zealand's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic in an article entitled 'Vanquish the virus? Australia and New Zealand aim to show the way'.
The piece contrasts the Australasian approach with that of other countries, particularly the US, saying "what Australia and New Zealand have already accomplished is a remarkable cause for hope".

[Zaphod]

Agreed. Also its obvious the subject of the article has an agenda against the Labour govt as well.

Seems more like click-bait to me.

[bull....]

21 hrs to go ....

[Bjauck]

Seems more like click-bait to me. Definitely an article with a Tabloid heading. The item seemed to want to stir up controversy, when none actually exists at present. Nothing that Mr Black said seemed to be counter to the intention of the government subsidy. We have not yet come to the end of the three-month time frame of the subsidy.

[bottomfeeder]

So my tenant (restaurant) is making bucks from the wage subsidy moaning poverty to me, getting me to rebate their rent. Sounds liks everyone is passing the pain buck to everyone but themselves.

[Balance]

So my tenant (restaurant) is making bucks from the wage subsidy moaning poverty to me, getting me to rebate their rent. Sounds liks everyone is passing the pain buck to everyone but themselves.

Don’t fall for the click bait article.

How is your tenant making bucks?

The restaurant has zero revenue but has to cover:

1. At least 80% of the wages of the retained employees, with the subsidy being paid up to a maximum of $585,

2. All fixed costs like rent, utilities, leases, equipment hire and for those with loans, interest.

I am helping a friend who owns several good outlets and he is out of pocket to the tune of $2,500+ per week paying his 30 staff 80% of their wages.

[Raz]

So my tenant (restaurant) is making bucks from the wage subsidy moaning poverty to me, getting me to rebate their rent. Sounds liks everyone is passing the pain buck to everyone but themselves.

Yeah, agree with balance for once..now accept taking a haircut..if it is the standard ALSL form lease they can tell you where to go under sec 22 for the period of lock down/state of emergency. Do a deal before you lose your tenent.

[bull....]

until what?

i can buy some KFC

[Grimy]

i can buy some KFC

Isn't that Tuesday?

[Sideshow Bob]

i can buy some KFC

Tuesday.

But if that desperate...….. https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2020/04/uk-man-claims-to-have-perfectly-recreated-kfc-at-home-after-18-months-of-trying.html (https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2020/04/uk-man-claims-to-have-perfectly-recreated-kfc-at-home-after-18-months-of-trying.html)

[Cadalac123]

i can buy some KFC

Not looking forward to the line , seems like a lot of people are having this intrinsic fuel to eat fried chicken propelling them towards the doors of KFC on tuesday lol

[Jonboyz]

Not looking forward to the line , seems like a lot of people are having this intrinsic fuel to eat fried chicken propelling them towards the doors of KFC on tuesday lol

There will be violence. Police waving tasers will be commonplace. The Colonel will be finger-lick'n.

[nztx]

Don’t fall for the click bait article.

How is your tenant making bucks?

The restaurant has zero revenue but has to cover:

1. At least 80% of the wages of the retained employees, with the subsidy being paid up to a maximum of $585,

2. All fixed costs like rent, utilities, leases, equipment hire and for those with loans, interest.

I am helping a friend who owns several good outlets and he is out of pocket to the tune of $2,500+ per week paying his 30 staff 80% of their wages.


Agree Balance

Add on Holiday Pay, Kiwisaver Employer contributions & AC Levies on all the wages (even those represented by subsidy credit)

Granted, there may be businesses which qualify for their 1 month reduced turnover (under 30%) who start back & they are then in a situation where a portion of wages continues to be subsidised for remaining duration of the 12 weeks..

It just means that for remaining weeks, employer doesn't incur full wage expense (ie after offsetting residual subsidy brought forward)

I suspect this is being hinted at by the Employer in the Article in today's Sunday Star Times

and it seems perfectly legitimate as well -- just so long as 100% of subsidy gets paid to stated Employees (as a collective group)

[winner69]

I think MR Black should have just shut up in first place

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327676

[CatO'Tonic]

Regarding the KFC conversation, I've heard that it might be worth waiting a few days for the inevitable mould etc to make its way through the system before indulging. I have spoken to a guy who works for a cleaning company who basically thinks that there is no way any takeaway business could have completely cleaned their premises with all the grease etc. There will be mould and bacteria on everything. His opinion was that it will take a few days of heat and chemical cleanings for all of that to be worked through. I'm no expert on sanitation but it sounds like a Darwin Award waiting to happen... I do love a quarter pack though... disc: not holding RBD

[CatO'Tonic]

Just to be clear, I don't mean to single out KFC or RBD, I'm sure this precaution would apply to any takeaway restaurant

[percy]

Just to be clear, I don't mean to single out KFC or RBD, I'm sure this precaution would apply to any takeaway restaurant

Funny you should post that.
Wife and I love our weekly fish and chips.
However we will wait for our fish and chip shop to be open a week,as after it opened after its Christmas holidays,the first or second day back, their fish/chips tasted as though they had been cooked in very old fat/oil.

[Baa_Baa]

Fully you should post that.
Wife and I love our weekly fish and chips.
However we will wait for our fish and chip shop to be open a week,as after it opened after its Christmas holidays,the first or second day back, their fish/chips tasted as though they had been cooked in very old fat/oil.

The old crone who served the meat-only satay sticks at the Star Ferry depot in Hong Kong boiled her wares in oil, nothing lives in boiling oil, served hot immediately after cooking. The Satay sticks were delicious, my ex-pat colleagues were disgusted that I would eat something so 'dirty' but apart from wondering about what exactly the meat was, they were delicious and nothing nasty would have ever survived being boiled in oil. Never got sick.

That said, after three bouts of campylobacter (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=campylobacter&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8) all of which I truly thought I was going to die (now that's an insidious notifiable bug), and all of which were traced back to KFC, I've never eaten that crap again.

I think the market is turning over, as the economic effects of complete global shutdown begin to dawn, no amount of money from the Fed or CB's is going to mask the companies pain that comprise the stock markets that will suffer.

[causecelebre]

I think MR Black should have just shut up in first place

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327676

Yes I suspect mr black will have will have some nice folks from a certain govt revenue collection organisation all up in his books. I can't help but feel there is more to this than a bad pr decision and/or ego

[nztx]

With all these shortened trading weeks with delayed weekend blues present - do we need a 'Black Tuesday' thread to cater for adverse Tuesdays ?

[nztx]

Yes I suspect mr black will have will have some nice folks from a certain govt revenue collection organisation all up in his books. I can't help but feel there is more to this than a bad pr decision and/or ego



Hahaha - yes my thoughts too on reading that article ...

[Raz]

As expected and to be continued...

"The businessman at the centre of a stoush with the Finance Minister insists he's "not a crook", after Grant Robertson condemned his use of the wage subsidy scheme."


What a dick thou......would not do business with this guy.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327676

[Entrep]

Let's get back to the thread topic? Big events this week are obviously more business opening up, level 3 inc and stimulus tapering in the US.

Personally I think everyone in the market still too euphoric and will take some time for reality to set in.

[JBmurc]

I certainly won’t be waiting in no line ..only got subway where I live ... fish n chips Thai etc my fav anyway ...what I’m really waiting for is the Golf courses to open again on Tuesday last round was at a brilliant championship course early March my poor lawn has many divots from practice..hoping the rain stays away ..

As too the markets ... reality will set in once we are out of lockdown plus the fact many newly jobless shareholders will be cashing in ... I see a progressive move downwards next several months for many companies values

[youngatheart]

NZX closed today as Anzac Day is mondayrised

[bull....]

If that wasn't enough, Goldman also has an ominous warning #2, namely that sharp declines in market breadth in the past, of the kind we see now, have often signaled large market drawdowns. For example, in addition to the Tech Bubble, breadth narrowed ahead of the recessions in 1990 and 2008 and the economic slowdowns of 2011 and 2016. This is also observed empirically, as historically sharply narrowing breadth has signaled below-average 1-, 3-, and 6-month S&P 500 returns as well as larger-than-average prospective drawdowns.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flips-bearish-sees-imminent-momentum-crash-all-sp-gains-come-just-5-stocks

The Market Is Now Just 5 Stocks: S&P Now More Concentrated In Top 5 Names Then Ever


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-now-just-5-stocks-sp-now-more-concentrated-top-5-names-then-ever

bit like NZ too ATM ,FPH to name a couple

One Of Them Is Wrong: Kolanovic Sees Record S&P In First Half Of 2021, Billionaire Paul Singer Sees 50% Crash

Once again, Kolanovic has outdone himself: instead of using the ERP which at least has some credibility, the quant has decided to stake his entire credibility on a model that even first year ibanking associates mock at every opportunity for the simple reason that a DCF is nothing more than any attempt to demonstrate just how familiar one is with the goalseek function in excel


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-them-wrong-kolanovic-sees-record-sp-first-half-2021-billionaire-paul-singer-sees-50

bit like on sharetrader too

[Zaphod]

Don’t fall for the click bait article.

How is your tenant making bucks?

The restaurant has zero revenue but has to cover:

1. At least 80% of the wages of the retained employees, with the subsidy being paid up to a maximum of $585,

2. All fixed costs like rent, utilities, leases, equipment hire and for those with loans, interest.

I am helping a friend who owns several good outlets and he is out of pocket to the tune of $2,500+ per week paying his 30 staff 80% of their wages.

We're in the same boat and have cut the lease down for our hospitality tenant for a couple of months. It's going to be a bloodbath out there in that sector, so I'd rather have some money coming in now than none, AND potentially having to deal with liquidators sealing the place shut.

[Zaphod]

I think MR Black should have just shut up in first place

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327676

The facts presented in the original article were very tame compared to the headline. I think the article amounts to click bait.

[Balance]

We're in the same boat and have cut the lease down for our hospitality tenant for a couple of months. It's going to be a bloodbath out there in that sector, so I'd rather have some money coming in now than none, AND potentially having to deal with liquidators sealing the place shut.

Retailers in shopping malls have started receiving offers of reduced rentals for the duration of the lock-down.

Anything from 25% to 50%.

I understand the retailers have all held firm and refused to accept the offers.

[blackcap]

Retailers in shopping malls have started receiving offers of reduced rentals for the duration of the lock-down.

Anything from 25% to 50%.

I understand the retailers have all held firm and refused to accept the offers.

What they are just happy paying full rent? Or am I missing something?

[Balance]

What they are just happy paying full rent? Or am I missing something?

Nope - bigger reductions plus deferment of any overdue rentals for 6 months.

Which is fair enough imo.

[Sideshow Bob]

I certainly won’t be waiting in no line ..only got subway where I live ... fish n chips Thai etc my fav anyway ...what I’m really waiting for is the Golf courses to open again on Tuesday last round was at a brilliant championship course early March my poor lawn has many divots from practice..hoping the rain stays away ..


At our club, over the hill from Atown, they've gone for missing every 2nd tee time - so instead of every 8 minutes, then 16 minutes apart......

Given you can only play in your bubble (by yourself or maybe with your significant other), basically 4 or 5 can play per hour. Was booked out for at least the next week within a couple of hours.

There are some unhappy people!!

[jonu]

Nope - bigger reductions plus deferment of any overdue rentals for 6 months.

Which is fair enough imo.

It's a tricky one. Rates, Insurance and maintenance don't disappear. Rates and Insurance are often the responsibility of the tenant in a Commercial Lease and I can't see local Councils shrinking the Rates demand!

[Balance]

It's a tricky one. Rates, Insurance and maintenance don't disappear. Rates and Insurance are often the responsibility of the tenant in a Commercial Lease and I can't see local Councils shrinking the Rates demand!

As long as the tenants stick together, the shopping malls and landlords are going to have to be realistic.

It's a force majeure event over which both parties have no control so tenants lose all revenues and it is only fair that landlords lose revenues as well.

Lawyers are going to be the richer anyway out of this!

[Balance]

As long as the tenants stick together, the shopping malls and landlords are going to have to be realistic.

It's a force majeure event over which both parties have no control so tenants lose all revenues and it is only fair that landlords lose revenues as well.

Lawyers are going to be the richer anyway out of this!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/retailers-and-landlords-seek-common-ground-as-negotiations-threaten-to-turn-ugly-20200424-p54mxb.html

Looks like heading to court in Australia in some instances. Landlords will be reluctant to test their agreements in court, I suspect.

[Brain]

At our club, over the hill from Atown, they've gone for missing every 2nd tee time - so instead of every 8 minutes, then 16 minutes apart......

Given you can only play in your bubble (by yourself or maybe with your significant other), basically 4 or 5 can play per hour. Was booked out for at least the next week within a couple of hours.

There are some unhappy people!!

If that is their only worry then they are not living on the same planet as the rest of us.

[Ricky-bobby]

What’s going to happen in the market this week?.. tues/wed will be up as people are feeling good about level 3, then there will be a slide to the weekend as everyone realises that it’s not much different with more announcements from businesses saying they r really hurting/ cap raises..thoughts?..

[Balance]

Lifeline for our tourism sector when (not if) Australasian bubble is created to facilitate travel between the two countries.

Will make a huge difference to both countries.

Let's hope the bubble is in time for the Queenstown ski-season.

Note that Australian tourists & travelers account for 50% of all international visitors to NZ.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/australia-considers-opening-borders-with-new-zealand/news-story/9f4fe4af964dc301d89c05a352c7bf95

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/markets/australia/

[Tomtom]

I can't stop clicking the refresh button on WTI tonight, it's absolutely cratering. There must be more tight oil producers getting ready to throw in the towel now. Here we go again with WTI it seems! :)

[bull....]

oil should in theory go to zero or negative again in june futures if conditions havnt changed from may.

[Raz]

Lifeline for our tourism sector when (not if) Australasian bubble is created to facilitate travel between the two countries.

Will make a huge difference to both countries.

Let's hope the bubble is in time for the Queenstown ski-season.

Note that Australian tourists & travelers account for 50% of all international visitors to NZ.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/australia-considers-opening-borders-with-new-zealand/news-story/9f4fe4af964dc301d89c05a352c7bf95

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/markets/australia/

Our ski season in Queenstown, in a normal year commercially is always depend on aussie tourist from Victoria.

[bull....]

Covid 19 coronavirus: Universal Basic Income high on Government's post-lockdown agenda
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327758


that be good , roll all the welfare schemes into one UBI for everyone. the problem i guess with the current welfare ( dole) is if one person in a family loses there job more than likely be no welfare and what once was a two income family is now a one income family in poverty due to the very tight criteria for married couples. very likely this senario will play out in NZ under current rules

[Balance]

Here we go again with WTI it seems! :)

https://www.ft.com/content/a8a7dc16-1a9a-48f9-9bfa-89269f94218a

World’s largest Oil ETF liquidating it’s June position ahead of its expiry - simply not enough demand out there to use the oil still being pumped out of the ground, and no spare storage either.

[Balance]

Potentially very good news - Oxford University vaccine testing moving at pace.

Let’s hope that their confidence is well placed - millions of doses of the vaccine to be available from Sept 2020.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html?referringSource=articleShare

[dobby41]

Another source
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/oxford-university-tria-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-news/

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327866

Negative interest rates likely this year.

Think of what that is going to do with the billions of dollars in term deposits in NZ maturing over the next 12 months. What are savers going to do?

[clip]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327866

Negative interest rates likely this year.

Think of what that is going to do with the billions of dollars in term deposits in NZ maturing over the next 12 months. What are savers going to do?

Not just happening here either https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/27/investing/savers-federal-reserve-interest-rates/index.html
/edit - Well, that is 0% not negative, but same implications

[dobby41]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327866

Negative interest rates likely this year.

Think of what that is going to do with the billions of dollars in term deposits in NZ maturing over the next 12 months. What are savers going to do?

Are we believing economists now?

[Balance]

Are we believing economists now?

Confirmation of my own belief.

[blackcap]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327866

Negative interest rates likely this year.

Think of what that is going to do with the billions of dollars in term deposits in NZ maturing over the next 12 months. What are savers going to do?

Savers are either going to save even more or they are going to look for alternative avenues for yield.

[Aaron]

Confirmation of my own belief.

You believe negative interest rates make sense?

[Balance]

You believe negative interest rates make sense?

Makes as much as sense as helicopter money.

Not something within our control so not much point debating it, we can but take it into consideration with what we do - ahead of the event.

[dobby41]

Confirmation of my own belief.

Confirmation bias - economists are wrong except when they agree with me. :t_up:

I'm not saying that we won't end up in negative territory.
Strange times - we end up with strange things.

[Balance]

Confirmation bias - economists are wrong except when they agree with me. :t_up:

I'm not saying that we won't end up in negative territory.
Strange times - we end up with strange things.

Agree with you there - we all look for confirmation bias, or don't we?

Denmark has had negative interest rates for a while and it certainly has helped to mainly keep the economy in positive growth territory.

The banks have not done so well though!

[bull....]

june oil trade on track down 10% at the moment as we head to negative again under current conditions

[kiora]

"Does the world have a new vampire squid? "
https://www.ft.com/content/88e3e75e-2f43-4621-9115-a8475a45b33f

[Joshuatree]

This USA cop has a very good point about the bankers and the Govt

https://reddit.app.link/4eZCOq5V25 (https://reddit.app.link/4eZCOq5V25)

[blobbles]

This USA cop has a very good point about the bankers and the Govt

https://reddit.app.link/4eZCOq5V25 (https://reddit.app.link/4eZCOq5V25)

This is brilliant and he is totally correct. Why not rise up and overthrow the people doing this? I am sure he would get the support!

I had to keep wiping my face from his spit hitting my face! :-D

[dobby41]

This USA cop has a very good point about the bankers and the Govt

https://reddit.app.link/4eZCOq5V25 (https://reddit.app.link/4eZCOq5V25)

I don't think he is a cop.
But he is heading for a heart attack.

[bull....]

can see by the photos wave 2 of the corona virus is coming , normally bigger too the second wave. only a matter of time before NZ gets there when we go to level 2 will accelerate the spread. give it a couple months to brew before the first big outbreak is my guess. So the stock market will follow

Densely-packed queues at takeaway outlets spark fears of disease outbreaks
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12328114

[jonu]

This USA cop has a very good point about the bankers and the Govt

https://reddit.app.link/4eZCOq5V25 (https://reddit.app.link/4eZCOq5V25)

Move over Tony Soprano! He must use the same script writers. Would certainly want to socially distance with all the spit flying.

[Balance]

Move over Tony Soprano! He must use the same script writers. Would certainly want to socially distance with all the spit flying.

He is a great character - you can check out his other clips on youtube. :t_up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEqI-hLkZrI&list=RDCMUCvjcjZARaaXMppR4c-UMs9g&start_radio=1&t=0

:D

[arc]

can see by the photos wave 2 of the corona virus is coming , normally bigger too the second wave. only a matter of time before NZ gets there when we go to level 2 will accelerate the spread. give it a couple months to brew before the first big outbreak is my guess. So the stock market will follow

Densely-packed queues at takeaway outlets spark fears of disease outbreaks


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12328114

Didn't you share trader folk realise. There was a new system of measurement introduced during lockdown... Idiots per Square Meter
[ISM] Apparently its somehow related to the Homer Simpson brain cell count, and the famous reverberating echo inside his head.


love the NZHerald

[Balance]

Didn't you share trader folk realise. There was a new system of measurement introduced during lockdown... idiots per square meter
Apparently its somehow related to the Homer Simpson brain cell count, and the famous reverberating echo inside his head.


love the NZHerald

Need to fine Burgerfuel big time - only way to teach them all a lesson.

[causecelebre]

Do you think generation me give a flying f.... about community transmission? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1108939/new-zealand-number-of-coronavirus-cases-by-age-group/

[blackcap]

Need to fine Burgerfuel big time - only way to teach them all a lesson.

No way. No need for burgerfuel to pay for the brunt of idiots. If idiots cannot keep the 2m spacing rule we need to fine the idiots, not the business supplying whatever wares.

Following your example, every single supermarket in this country should be fined as none are keeping to the 2m distancing.

[causecelebre]

No way. No need for burgerfuel to pay for the brunt of idiots. If idiots cannot keep the 2m spacing rule we need to fine the idiots, not the business supplying whatever wares.

Following your example, every single supermarket in this country should be fined as none are keeping to the 2m distancing.

I would say good old Darwin will take care of this but the problem is they will go have a nice cuppa with nanna shortly after

[Joshuatree]

Need to fine Burgerfuel big time - only way to teach them all a lesson.

Agree, even better shut them down for a few days so they get the message and take responsibility.

[jonu]

Agree, even better shut them down for a few days so they get the message and take responsibility.

The difficulty is if they aren't on their premises there is only so much they can do. If they can get away with ground signage and roping off outside the premises it helps.

[bull....]

went to kfc yesterday but had to miss out lines were too long and new someone who went to mc d's 2 hr wait so we flagged yesterday for our fix but happy to report we got in at mc d's the 2 off us today and us hungry people ate our way thru $60 of burgers in 10 mins lol que's not as bad thankfully , going to wendys tonight for dinner and kfc later in the week then should have satisfied my urge for a while. hungry people us , work hard eat hard lol

[Joshuatree]

We got Indian takeaways, Rogan josh, Chicken frieze,garlic naan etc. No waiting or queuing at all. Delicious treat.

[blackcap]

We got Indian takeaways, Rogan josh, Chicken frieze,garlic naan etc. No waiting or queuing at all. Delicious treat.

That's the way to go and healthier to boot. Partner and I going to support the local indian and fish and chip shop. Bugger waiting for an hour plus in a que for Maccas or K fry.

[Chinesekiwi]

ok I'll fess up - we made a beeline for Sals Pizza.

Home cooking has lost its lustrous veneer, though we will cook now ongoing more than ever before.

[Balance]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8268277/Pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-ready-fall.html

Pfizer reckons their vaccine could be ready by end of the year.

We can but hope that the unprecedented international effort to produce a vaccine will bear fruit sooner rather than later.

[clip]

went to kfc yesterday but had to miss out lines were too long and new someone who went to mc d's 2 hr wait so we flagged yesterday for our fix but happy to report we got in at mc d's the 2 off us today and us hungry people ate our way thru $60 of burgers in 10 mins lol que's not as bad thankfully , going to wendys tonight for dinner and kfc later in the week then should have satisfied my urge for a while. hungry people us , work hard eat hard lol

We very much enjoyed our $55 of Wendy's between 2 for lunch today, it's about the only thing we've been missing/craving for the past 5 weeks. And subway one particularly hungover sunday..

[Tomtom]

I caved in and ordered some stock for the drinks cabinet. It was that or raid the earthquake emergency supply kit for the bottle of Vodka. Complacency on my part of course, we cannot rely on global supply chains in a crisis and I have now learned my lesson about carrying an inventory.

[bull....]

We very much enjoyed our $55 of Wendy's between 2 for lunch today, it's about the only thing we've been missing/craving for the past 5 weeks. And subway one particularly hungover sunday..

we made it to wendy's last night too more burgers lol. i prefer wendy's over mc d's myself spicy chicken burger yum ( normally i go to kfc for there chicken burger but they are not doing them) but its never as busy as mc d's so im obviously in the minority.

I can report it was no way that busy at 8pm driving past all the takeaway places last night compared to monday so im guessing after this week it will be very much over the rush and will return too normal or lower sales than normal is probably my pick going forward. Im going to kfc later in the week to see if this is correct.

[bull....]

Fed pledges to keep rates near zero until full employment, inflation come back


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/fed-decision-fed-pledges-to-keep-rates-near-zero-until-full-employment-inflation-come-back.html


The economic decline in the first quarter reveals even weaker consumers and more unknowns ahead
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/the-economic-decline-in-first-quarter-reveals-even-weaker-consumers-and-more-unknowns-ahead.html

listening to the fed live now and saying will just keep printing money and lifting debt levels do what ever it takes.
question is does all this do what ever it takes from fed and govt mean in years to come there will be low growth for years as high consumer and govt debt constrain growth , they never be able to raise rates again much as it will cause another crash seems like digging a bigger hole all the time to me.
artificially propping everything up to prevent a normal cycle reset will never work in the long run just mean finally when it ends the damage will be the worst the world have ever seen obviously some people dont want to see a reset in there life time lol.

[Balance]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gilead-remdesivir/data-on-gilead-drug-raises-hopes-in-pandemic-fight-fauci-calls-it-highly-significant-idUSKBN22B1T9

Potentially very good news from Gilead.

[Balance]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/europe/germany-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-test-intl/index.html

Another potential vaccine on the way.

We can but hope that one of the several vaccines going to human trials is going to work.

[Aaron]

Nouriel Roubini is one voice of concern. He even suggests deflation is a possibility (risk3). No one expects that.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/29/ten-reasons-why-greater-depression-for-the-2020s-is-inevitable-covid

[Balance]

Nouriel Roubini is one voice of concern. He even suggests deflation is a possibility (risk3). No one expects that.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/29/ten-reasons-why-greater-depression-for-the-2020s-is-inevitable-covid

Good to get all perspectives, positive or negative, optimistic or pessimistic.

Up to each of us to decide on what to do.

As they say, when in doubt, stay out!

Also, be greedy when others are panicking.

[clip]

heres updated sp500 chart breaking down of bearish rising wedge chart pattern

11373


bear rally was really causing a bad disconnect between reality of earnings to stock prices. the market was more expensive than at the peak

Can we get an updated chart - looks like downtrend broken, to my untrained eye? Have been watching this over past week or so - not sure if lines are in the right place etc? Looks like trading sideways for a while (green lines) but broken up out of that, and broken past 50% fib retrace - next target 61.8?

11444

[bull....]

Can we get an updated chart - looks like downtrend broken, to my untrained eye? Have been watching this over past week or so - not sure if lines are in the right place etc? Looks like trading sideways for a while (green lines) but broken up out of that, and broken past 50% fib retrace - next target 61.8?

11444

your charts look good to me , failed wedge pattern. did mention it might not pan out so reinforces when chart watching you need to be watching and reviewing your analysis all the time. As for bear market , bull market who knows with any certainty we seem to be in and out of these so quick these days are they even relevant anymore? as long they keep printing money thats all the market seems to care about.

[Balance]

your charts look good to me , failed wedge pattern. did mention it might not pan out so reinforces when chart watching you need to be watching and reviewing your analysis all the time. As for bear market , bull market who knows with any certainty we seem to be in and out of these so quick these days are they even relevant anymore? as long they keep printing money thats all the market seems to care about.

Don't fight the Fed.

Doomsday merchants were warned by all manner of billionaires who have been seizing on these 'once in a decade' opportunities to make serious money by NOT panicking and investing wisely in beaten up stocks.

[macduffy]

As they say, when in doubt, stay out!

Also, be greedy when others are panicking.

Take your pick!

:confused:

[Balance]

Take your pick!

:confused:

Exactly - depends on how each individual digest all that conflicting views and news out there.

Stay in cash and stay safe or take the risk of buying beaten up stocks and be ready to stay the distance.

Either way, make sure one can sleep well at nights.

[bull....]

Don't fight the Fed.

Doomsday merchants were warned by all manner of billionaires who have been seizing on these 'once in a decade' opportunities to make serious money by NOT panicking and investing wisely in beaten up stocks.

im still not convinced everything is all rosy (economy reality vrs stockmarket reality) to go long term stock positions so remain mostly cash and just trading in and out short term stuff. the fed can print all the money they like but none of us know what implications this has long term.

[Balance]

im still not convinced everything is all rosy (economy reality vrs stockmarket reality) to go long term stock positions so remain mostly cash and just trading in and out short term stuff. the fed can print all the money they like but none of us know what implications this has long term.

Implications are glaringly clear actually!

Results of the massive money printing during the GFC is there for us all to see, surely!

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-powell-congress-should-use-great-fiscal-power-to-provide-direct-support-213347357.html

“This is the time to use the great fiscal power of the United States to do what we can do to support the economy and try to get through this with as little damage to the longer-run productive capacity of the economy as possible,” Powell said."

Take on the Fed?

I don't think so - it will be like one of our mothballed Skyhawks taking on the Lockheed F35.

[bull....]

Implications are glaringly clear actually!

Results of the massive money printing during the GFC is there for us all to see, surely!

they havnt stopped printing money since GFC , 10 yrs now of money printing and no end in sight

it has driven rates to zero everywhere , ensured that if they ever stop printing now the GFC will look like a walk n the park eg december 2018 rout caused by the fed trying to stop and raise rates.

[Balance]

they havnt stopped printing money since GFC , 10 yrs now of money printing and no end in sight

it has driven rates to zero everywhere , ensured that if they ever stop printing now the GFC will look like a walk n the park eg december 2018 rout caused by the fed trying to stop and raise rates.

Which means they will NEVER stop printing.

So what does do to your money sitting in the bank?

[Balance]

NZD collapsing 55c now obviously pricing in NZ as a banana republic soon

bull ... NZD back at 61c so we are going to regain our rock-star economic status?

[bull....]

Which means they will NEVER stop printing.

So what does do to your money sitting in the bank?

which means the stock market fundamentals are irrelevant and if you follow this your miss out and if you are a risk taker or gambler your be well rewarded. so should i go borrow 1 million today at low rates and invest in the market knowing the fed will print money for ever and markets will never fall seriously ever again lol

[peat]

Nouriel Roubini is one voice of concern. He even suggests deflation is a possibility (risk3). No one expects that.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/29/ten-reasons-why-greater-depression-for-the-2020s-is-inevitable-covid

the dude is a serious downer, didn't they call him Dr Doom?

I actually subscribe (for now) to his boom bust website https://www.theboombust.com/

where he gives calls on over and undervaluation of major asset classes > 1Tr

11445

[Balance]

which means the stock market fundamentals are irrelevant and if you follow this your miss out and if you are a risk taker or gambler your be well rewarded. so should i go borrow 1 million today at low rates and invest in the market knowing the fed will print money for ever and markets will never fall seriously ever again lol

Not for you, bull .... you have already spent enough sleepless nights worrying about the world cratering into pieces?

Better to sleep well and when interest rates go negative, sleep with the cash in the mattress may feel even better? Cash makes great insulation for warmth, they say.

From Powell this morning : “We won’t run out of money.”

[Entrep]

Interesting question 11451

[peat]

Interesting question 11451

as one might expect given human nature it would appear to me that the CCI is more volatile than the S&P Index.
So it is more likely that confidence will rise.

[bull....]

US weekly jobless claims hit 3.84 million, topping 30 million over the last 6 weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html

bar the nasdaq most US indices havnt been able to go above 61.8% retracement of the low with any conviction. start of new month coming up will provide much insight will show weather april was just a rebound from oversold levels or something more. time will tell. anyway been a big bounce and the worst of corporate earnings wont be reflected to next time

[Aaron]

Maybe not Monday but Gary Shilling provides some hope for those who fear they may have missed the investing opportunity of a lifetime. Although if he is right this is nothing to be happy about.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-a-40-drop-could-hit-by-next-year-after-this-bear-market-rally-fades-veteran-economist-warns-2020-04-30?mod=home-page

And to display my terrible confirmation bias

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-or-deflation-mish-warns-demand-collapse-trumps-supply-shocks

I have also been reading many stories about inflation(and reading Balances posts) and that is what the people in power are working towards so who knows. No one knows for sure but Gary Shilling has been right for a long time on his predictions I also remember an interview he did where his research showed (I can't remember the wording exactly) that deflation is a natural consequence of a successful economy and inflation only really happened during war.

[bull....]

Maybe not Monday but Gary Shilling provides some hope for those who fear they may have missed the investing opportunity of a lifetime. Although if he is right this is nothing to be happy about.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-be-fooled-a-40-drop-could-hit-by-next-year-after-this-bear-market-rally-fades-veteran-economist-warns-2020-04-30?mod=home-page

And to display my terrible confirmation bias

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-or-deflation-mish-warns-demand-collapse-trumps-supply-shocks

I have also been reading many stories about inflation(and reading Balances posts) and that is what the people in power are working towards so who knows. No one knows for sure but Gary Shilling has been right for a long time on his predictions I also remember an interview he did where his research showed (I can't remember the wording exactly) that deflation is a natural consequence of a successful economy and inflation only really happened during war.

heres a picture from the comments section of your news link showing the stock market in 1929 and the crash that followed

11454


looks rather similar to the rally now , so lets see what happens going forward

while im in a bearish thought train heres another well used indicator which really shows the disconnect between the market

Warren Buffett's favourite stock-market indicator hits record high, signalling a crash could be coming
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/buffett-indicator-surges-record-high-signaling-potential-crash-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

[bottomfeeder]

Which means they will NEVER stop printing.

So what does do to your money sitting in the bank?

The money you have in the bank is worth less. All they are doing is having a dollar split, but instead of it accumulating to you they take it for themselves, Inflation will take off, but the RB will keep interest rates low, so those with cash in the bank are paying for the rescue of the country.

[clip]

US weekly jobless claims hit 3.84 million, topping 30 million over the last 6 weeks


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html

bar the nasdaq most US indices havnt been able to go above 61.8% retracement of the low with any conviction. start of new month coming up will provide much insight will show weather april was just a rebound from oversold levels or something more. time will tell. anyway been a big bounce and the worst of corporate earnings wont be reflected to next time

Updated chart.. would this new wedge/lines i have put on be accurate? So we may see tomorrow if it breaks down and if it falls below the 50% retracement then a sign to go much lower?

11455

[Entrep]

11460

Found another cool chart that sums things up rather well

[Aaron]

Good news for share prices.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deutsche-bank-capitulates-starts-charging-all-new-deposit-account-exceeding-eu100000

What happens when a bank has no more depositors? I guess at that point money loses all value and meaning.

[bull....]

Updated chart.. would this new wedge/lines i have put on be accurate? So we may see tomorrow if it breaks down and if it falls below the 50% retracement then a sign to go much lower?

11455

looks good looking at the futures might drop thru the line tonight. i be watching for a big confirmation of downside with a break of the bottom line on your sideways channel

[workingdad]

Futures looking like on the cusp of it now. A lot can change but interesting to watch.

[Cyclical]

11460

Found another cool chart that sums things up rather well

Haha, nice one. Clearly I'm not looking at things from the right perspective.

[bull....]

Small firms could claim $15b-$20b of cheap loans from Government, says Taxpayers Union
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121370360/small-firms-could-claim-15b20b-of-cheap-loans-from-government-says-taxpayers-union

wonder how many zombie nz companies will get the money and go bust costing taxpayers

[ynot]

looks good looking at the futures might drop thru the line tonight. i be watching for a big confirmation of downside with a break of the bottom line on your sideways channel

ASX down 5% today. Market is nervous.

[causecelebre]

Interesting result for Amazon. EPS down to 5.01 from anticipated 6.25. However in Q2 due to CV related costs of ~$4b. Estimated -$1.5b op loss to $1.5b op profit where +$4b expected. CV related costs include more staff testing, ppe and most interesting "less efficient process paths". Apple withholds guidance. These were two of the best performing stock in April.

High levels of debt and economic nationalisation will reduce investment and productivity. Capital raisings will further dilute shareholdings and there will be a large reduction in corp buybacks: the impetus behind stock demand in recent years.

The rubber meets the road. Will be in interesting month me thinks

[Raz]

Interesting result for Amazon. EPS down to 5.01 from anticipated 6.25. However in Q2 due to CV related costs of ~$4b. Estimated -$1.5b op loss to $1.5b op profit where +$4b expected. CV related costs include more staff testing, ppe and most interesting "less efficient process paths". Apple withholds guidance. These were two of the best performing stock in April.

High levels of debt and economic nationalisation will reduce investment and productivity. Capital raisings will further dilute shareholdings and there will be a large reduction in corp buybacks: the impetus behind stock demand in recent years.

The rubber meets the road. Will be in interesting month me thinks

Interesting the inflation/deflation debate, in reality seeing substantial deflation currently in certain sectors, just not at the supermarket :)

[bull....]

ASX down 5% today. Market is nervous.

ASX is a tough one to play in unfavourable conditions , tend to get big moves day to day making it easy to get caught out with bad timing. See the NZX couldnt get above its 61.8% retracement level either and on the verge of posting a lower high lets see if on monday we get a tank catch up

[bull....]

As wall st starts may in the red is the start of the sell in may and go away seasonal factor more relevant this year ? do you think it makes sense in covid world?

[Entrep]

It is always brightest before darkness

[bull....]

i did my last takeaway run yesterday , drove past all takeaways they are not nearly as busy as the start of the week sort of reinforces my thinking that when shops re - open be a day or two of good sales followed by the reality of things are not going back too normal

[Entrep]

Yes Uber arrived within 20 minutes last night. Normal wait on a Friday would be 60 mins from the same kitchen. Clearly they are not under the pump like normal

[bull....]

Yeah its interesting aye. I think Economists, during the lock down, talked about it not being easy to just turn the switch back on, but IMO they were talking about from a supply side. There wasnt much talk about the demand side, and how all of this affects human behaviour, and desire (or lack of) to consume. I think we may have underestimated the medium term shock to consumption, even when the potential to consume is back on the table. I agree, I think the economic realities of all this will start to sink in this month, and then next 6 months or so. Will be way way worse if developed economies start to experience second waves that force more lock downs too. Im still very bearish on all of this, despite being up against the Fed.

second big wave will kill any hope left , wipe out the businesses who just survive this lock down and extend the down turn considerably. talk off trans tasman tourism 100 people gatherings etc sees me thinking its only a matter of time before second wave comes throw in human nature and people will carry on like nothing wrong when 2 level comes. as for buying behaviour people be on edge next couple months because they wont know if they lose job once wage subsidy ends so will restrain spending

[Biscuit]

i did my last takeaway run yesterday , drove past all takeaways they are not nearly as busy as the start of the week sort of reinforces my thinking that when shops re - open be a day or two of good sales followed by the reality of things are not going back too normal

I wouldn't be reading too much into that. Every man and his dog went out to buy takeaways the first day. That must have been a pretty terrible experience - waiting for hours in a queue in some cases and takeaways are at any rate bound to disapoint if you have been hanging out for them for a month. Who would be coming back for seconds the next day??

[martinchnz1]

ASX is a tough one to play in unfavourable conditions , tend to get big moves day to day making it easy to get caught out with bad timing. See the NZX couldnt get above its 61.8% retracement level either and on the verge of posting a lower high lets see if on monday we get a tank catch up

Dow closed down 2.5%, s&p 2.8% and NASDAQ 3.2%.

[Dlownz]

I thought this was a pretty decent summary of what researchers from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy outlined are the three likely scenarios to come.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-pandemic-likely-to-last-for-two-years-scientists-predict.html

In summary:
1) first wave followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves
2) first wave followed by larger second wave in winter
3) first wave followed by medium term on going cases but without a wave pattern

So in short, second wave is not a given.

And again, the problem we have with all of this is that being such a new virus the research on this to date leaves so much uncertainty that there is a lot of guess work in predicting the future.

I think there will be a second bigger wave unless country's lock down quicker next time although I do t think they will want yo due to there economy's and the hit they've already taken. The reason I think the second wave will be bigger is because the first wave has not been able to spread naturally. The 1918 flu came on two waves. It was not really stopped in its spread and (as trump would say magically disappear). So unless country's can eliminate it there will be a bigger wave. Hopefully nz and Australia will be able to completely eliminate it. As other country's are in a very hard position to get rid of it due to there already high numbers. Yes it will reduce during summer as every cold and flu does but once they head into there next winter they better watch out as there only saving grace at the moment is the fact that it arrived at the end of the cold and flu season. Nz had to act quick as we were at the start of our cold and flu season. Australia is a little lucky as they are alot warmer still at this time if year. That has been there saving grace.
Good news is people shouldn't be ringing in sick saying they have a cold or flu as this winter it shouldn't exist.
My two cents.

[Tomtom]

From what I can see that makes sense. Credible sources said the total number of deaths in the US would likely total 240k deaths before reaching a herd immunity level. They are currently at 65k deaths and are re-opening some states so there will likely be about four cycles. First cycle seems to take about one to two months of virus transmission followed by six to eight weeks of quarantine measures. However as they get towards higher levels of immunity that duration between quarantine measures will be longer due to slower propogation within the remaining population.

Economically I hope the approach we are taking will be less damaging and we may be able to entirely avoid further lockdowns if we can ramp up testing capability. Certainly throwing a few hundred million into disease surveillance and tracing efforts has a very high return on investment. On that note I would float the idea that if we aren't going to need those old respirators that we recomissioned we should lend them to another country that does within the Asia Pacific region. :)

[dln]

From what I can see that makes sense. Credible sources said the total number of deaths in the US would likely total 240k deaths before reaching a herd immunity level. They are currently at 65k deaths and are re-opening some states so there will likely be about four cycles. First cycle seems to take about one to two months of virus transmission followed by six to eight weeks of quarantine measures. However as they get towards higher levels of immunity that duration between quarantine measures will be longer due to slower propogation within the remaining population.
There is still no evidence that there IS any (lasting) immunity from re-infection (there are plenty of RNA virus's where this is the case, Hep C for instance).
If so, that paints a very different picture than the 'herd-immunity' proponents imagine.

[Panda-NZ-]

Yes without answering the immunity question reopening is profoundly risky. If it doesn't even last months then 2% death rate becomes 5% and so on annually.

Herd immunity countries could become no-go zones and if a vaccine is not possible in an acceptable timeframe...

[Valuegrowth]

Many will miss winners with the endless media negativity that frightens many. Two things to watch in the markets are volatility and winning stocks.

The lower interest rates and bond yields is often credited with supporting higher prices in the stock market. Will it prove this time too?

https://www.multpl.com/20-year-treasury-rate (https://www.multpl.com/20-year-treasury-rate)

20 Year Treasury Rate

[Balance]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/415638/new-zealand-food-exports-still-in-demand-despite-covid-19-impact

Life continues and NZ’s primary exports continue to power along.

It’s all about picking winners or over-sold deafen (beaten) up stocks.

How much of $330 billion sitting in bank deposits will be looking for better returns, yields and income as the deposits mature into an ever decreasing interest rate environment?

[kiora]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/415638/new-zealand-food-exports-still-in-demand-despite-covid-19-impact

Life continues and NZ’s primary exports continue to power along.

It’s all about picking winners or over-sold deafen up stocks.

How much of $330 billion sitting in bank deposits will be looking for better returns, yields and income as the deposits mature into an ever decreasing interest rate environment?

The silence is definitely deafening on over-sold deafen up stocks :)
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/dec/10/super-rich-elites-inequality-origins-ancient-farming-mckie-anthropology-society

[Balance]

The silence is definitely deafening on over-sold deafen🤪 up stocks :)
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/dec/10/super-rich-elites-inequality-origins-ancient-farming-mckie-anthropology-society

And it’s back to the farming sector to cushion and rescue NZ from the economic devastation of Covid-19. 👍

[kiora]

Ouch
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/

[workingdad]

Ouch
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/

Interesting read. Pretty accurate too. The good ol USA is not what it used to be.

In response to some of the posts. Between the fed and the short squeeze the bounce has indeed been strong but there is still so much of covids effects to play out. In the USA where restrictions are being lifted, mass gatherings are going ahead with public obedience and disobedience will ensure it hangs around for a long time yet. Companies with ****e balance sheets get propped up with government funds but in many cases it only delays the inevitable. Unemployment continuing to rise, consumer spending will be falling off a cliff, supply lines from China will be disrupted from the tensions between the two countries as the rhetoric from the USA towards China increases. All that cash in banks, well some of it may find its way into markets but the generation that holds a lot of it are risk adverse and don’t understand markets going up in such harsh economic times so I don’t see it all moving into chasing better returns, particularly as companies stop dividends. But the flip side is how long before kiwi savers start pulling money out on hardship and will the government make this easier.

There is no end of negative news from companies and economies ahead so my thoughts, it’s only a matter of time.

[bull....]

Interesting read. Pretty accurate too. The good ol USA is not what it used to be.

In response to some of the posts. Between the fed and the short squeeze the bounce has indeed been strong but there is still so much of covids effects to play out. In the USA where restrictions are being lifted, mass gatherings are going ahead with public obedience and disobedience will ensure it hangs around for a long time yet. Companies with ****e balance sheets get propped up with government funds but in many cases it only delays the inevitable. Unemployment continuing to rise, consumer spending will be falling off a cliff, supply lines from China will be disrupted from the tensions between the two countries as the rhetoric from the USA towards China increases. All that cash in banks, well some of it may find its way into markets but the generation that holds a lot of it are risk adverse and don’t understand markets going up in such harsh economic times so I don’t see it all moving into chasing better returns, particularly as companies stop dividends. But the flip side is how long before kiwi savers start pulling money out on hardship and will the government make this easier.

There is no end of negative news from companies and economies ahead so my thoughts, it’s only a matter of time.

I agree there;s a certain portion of society that will never leave the comfort of fixed income

[bull....]

another big risk going forward for the markets is trump ramping up criticism and talking of payback towards china for the releasing the virus on america from there bat lab , i dont know of course if this true about the bat lab or just another bogus theory like ebola came from african's rooting monkeys but it could eend up being covid + tradewars 2 combined heading into the american election. which of course to leads to another issue of the fed printing which has to paid back one way or another one day. will china continue to finance this? under heated bat attack i dont know but they have plenty of there own issues at home to contend with so might not be in a position too anyway.

[bull....]

even buffet see no value in the market even after the declines

Berkshire Hathaway’s first-quarter earnings revealed that Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett built up the conglomerate’s cash fortress and only bought small portions of stock during the violent rout of equity markets due to the coronavirus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-built-up-cash-bought-only-small-amounts-of-stock-during-the-stock-market-rout.html

virtual meeting on now with buffet

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-live-updates.html



Buffett Stays on Sidelines With Cash Rising to $137 Billion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-02/buffett-stays-on-the-sidelines-amid-market-tumble-as-cash-climbs?srnd=premium-asia

[Bjauck]

another big risk going forward for the markets is trump ramping up criticism and talking of payback towards china for the releasing the virus on america from there bat lab.... President Trump's "forte" seems to be the ability to inflame a difficult situation to wring political advantage for himself.

[Balance]

$330 billion in bank deposits - what happens when interest rates go negative in the doomsday scenarios painted here by some posters?

[workingdad]

$330 billion in bank deposits - what happens when interest rates go negative in the doomsday scenarios painted here by some posters?

I very much doubt nz will see negative interest rates.

Doomsday isn’t what I’m posting, what I am saying is the global economy is in a place it hasn’t experienced with different monetary policies it will pull through as a genuine recovery happens and that the markets that look through short term shocks is looking through to a fast recovery that just isn’t there, markets are ultimately based on business success which in turn eventually reflects profits and losses despite the free money out there to prop it all up and even free money has to be repaid sometime, debt is debt regardless of how you look at it.

[Balance]

I very much doubt nz will see negative interest rates.

Doomsday isn’t what I’m posting, what I am saying is the global economy is in a place it hasn’t experienced with different monetary policies it will pull through as a genuine recovery happens and that the markets that look through short term shocks is looking through to a fast recovery that just isn’t there, markets are ultimately based on business success which in turn eventually reflects profits and losses despite the free money out there to prop it all up and even free money has to be repaid sometime, debt is debt regardless of how you look at it.

1 year NZ swap rate is sitting at 0.21% and 2 year swap rate is at 0.19%.

Might as well call it zero %, right?

Market is already pricing in a long slow recovery - no quick recovery.

[Entrep]

Might as well call it zero %, right?

Not really, it's not zero.

[workingdad]

1 year NZ swap rate is sitting at 0.21% and 2 year swap rate is at 0.19%.

Might as well call it zero %, right?

Market is already pricing in a long slow recovery - no quick recovery.

Banks can’t lend money out without having deposits so it’s will always need to entice depositors hence the term deposit rates are not .21%

If the market was pricing in a long slow recovery why is it back up to where it was when there was no global economic risk to be factored in?

May I ask, where do you see the Global and domestic economy in 2 months time and where do you see the market levels both here and abroad?

[Balance]

Banks can’t lend money out without having deposits so it’s will always need to entice depositors hence the term deposit rates are not .21%

If the market was pricing in a long slow recovery why is it back up to where it was when there was no global economic risk to be factored in?

May I ask, where do you see the Global and domestic economy in 2 months time and where do you see the market levels both here and abroad?

There's already negative interest rates in Denmark, Japan and Germany. Other Euro countries are looking to follow. Westpac has forecast negative interest rates for NZ by end of the year.

My views on economies are well articulated, workingdad - recession but no depression. Don't fight the Fed.

Also I have already explained (thrice) why those looking at the index in NZ as indicative of the NZ economy have NO clue what they are writing about.

Likewise, the global indices.

Everyone needs to be looking the markets, sectors by sectors, stocks by stocks.

I am not bullish on the markets - but I am not going to sit here and watch the doomsday merchants preach complete doom & gloom (as they have now for 2 months) without considering all the pertinent factors at play.

[allfromacell]

The bond market is at least twice the size of the equities market, in inflation adjusted terms out swap rates are already negative yeild.

I have no clue where markets will head but cash in the last thing I want right now. Cash being king is old school thinking with modern central banking being the way it is.

[Balance]

The bond market is at least twice the size of the equities market, in inflation adjusted terms out swap rates are already negative yeild.

I have no clue where markets will head but cash in the last thing I want right now. Cash being king is old school thinking with modern central banking being the way it is.

Good point about inflation adjusted yield - thanks for pointing that out.

Short term, I believe cash is still king.

But when that tsunami of money printed out of thin air hits the financial markets (2021), money in the bank is going to be worthless relative to properties, businesses and productive assets.

[workingdad]

There's already negative interest rates in Denmark, Japan and Germany. Other Euro countries are looking to follow. Westpac has forecast negative interest rates for NZ by end of the year.

My views on economies are well articulated, workingdad - recession but no depression. Don't fight the Fed.

Also I have already explained (thrice) why those looking at the index in NZ as indicative of the NZ economy have NO clue what they are writing about.

Likewise, the global indices.

Everyone needs to be looking the markets, sectors by sectors, stocks by stocks.

Japan has been in a hole for many years before this, some of the others you mention are similar and yet how many of them have had their markets flooded with cash being withdrawn? My argument (for lack of a better term) is that all the cash in banks will not be finding its way into the markets given the framework of lending and deposits.

I’m not so sure we won’t technically meet the numbers of a depression, it really depends on a lot of factors that are unknown to us yet.

As for the markets and the nz economy. I understand a lot of views on opposing sides but, a company performs well, it pays dividends, shareholders get their returns, company share price goes up. Company does poorly, economic outlook poor, stops paying dividends, investors withdraw and share price falls but wait..... along comes the fed, there’s free money for all, falsely inflated share prices That are based on availability of money not company earnings. Yes some are very well pls Ed in this environment but generally speaking if consumers aren’t spending or too many unemployed can’t pay their bills, company earnings fall, unpaid debts rise, businesses go broke, the bigger businesses they owe money don’t get paid and on it goes so at some point in a drawn out economic downturn markets will face the same challenges as the economy. Creating vast amounts of money without productivity can’t go on forever and the scales need to be rebalanced somehow. Even the mighty USA has to earn money to pay its debts.

That’s how I see it, maybe I’m wrong as my career isn’t in finances but a fair chunk of people with money to invest are the same, not experts but life experience tells us 2 minus 6 is negative 4 not 357,673.

I value the experience and knowledge on the forum here but I take an approach that suits me. My money is staying in the bank, if I’m right I mop up some solid bargains down the track, if I’m wrong I haven’t lost much as I pulled my money out of the markets and done well enough that I’m still on the right side of the balance sheet.

[Balance]

I value the experience and knowledge on the forum here but I take an approach that suits me. My money is staying in the bank, if I’m right I mop up some solid bargains down the track, if I’m wrong I haven’t lost much as I pulled my money out of the markets and done well enough that I’m still on the right side of the balance sheet.

Exactly the right approach! 👍

Use the strategy which works for you at a personal & professional level.

[arc]

Think LOCAL...
Bring your manufacturing home...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/prosper/121177344/coronavirus-manufacturing-can-be-the-backbone-the-covid19-economic-recovery

[winner69]

Some worried about the fact share trading volumes on the NZX have in recent weeks been up to 4 times higher than they were in Jan. they say Scary to think of the number of retail investors making moves out of fear and/or greed.

But no worries ...the masses all can’t be wrong. A lot of winners of late.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-singapore-australia-canada-south-korea-new-zealand-commit-to-resume-essential
Coronavirus: Singapore, Australia, Canada, South Korea, New Zealand commit to resuming essential cross-border travel

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/02/investing/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-meeting/index.html
Warren Buffett vows that US will recover from coronavirus

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3081041/coronavirus-taiwan-upbeat-2020-growth-electronic-exports-jump
Coronavirus: Taiwan upbeat on 2020 growth as electronic exports jump, island stays lockdown free

[Stranger_Danger]

Some worried about the fact share trading volumes on the NZX have in recent weeks been up to 4 times higher than they were in Jan. they say Scary to think of the number of retail investors making moves out of fear and/or greed.

But no worries ...the masses all can’t be wrong. A lot of winners of late.

Yeah, Buffett selling out of his $8 billion airline industry investment, at a loss, in a bad market, despite having $130 billion or so in cash, probably means nothing.

The smart money is far more likely to be the Sharesies crowd buying Air NZ.

*cough*

[Cyclical]

Some worried about the fact share trading volumes on the NZX have in recent weeks been up to 4 times higher than they were in Jan. they say Scary to think of the number of retail investors making moves out of fear and/or greed.

But no worries ...the masses all can’t be wrong. A lot of winners of late.

Crazy isn't it. Think '87, another crash coming when a heap of these noobs get the $#1ts and run for the exit all at once, never to return. Been having a relatively conservative play myself the last couple of months, but no where near comfortable enough to move the Kiwisaver out of cash.

[bull....]

Middle East markets provided a taste (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/saudi-stocks-slump-as-minister-warns-of-painful-measures-ahead) Sunday of what may be in store for the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index tumbled 7.4%

Bad Start to May Is a Sign of Things to Come for Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/bad-start-to-may-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-for-global-markets?srnd=premium-asia

[Balance]

Middle East markets provided a taste (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/saudi-stocks-slump-as-minister-warns-of-painful-measures-ahead) Sunday of what may be in store for the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index tumbled 7.4%

Bad Start to May Is a Sign of Things to Come for Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/bad-start-to-may-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-for-global-markets?srnd=premium-asia

Pathetic feeble attempt really from you, bull...

Anyone half-intelligent knows that Saudi Arabia has been hit extra hard by the oil price collapse and announced over the weekend that there's going to be very tough times ahead from budget cuts.

Try harder.

I can think of several extremely negative articles in various publications predicting the end of the world as we know it which would serve your purpose of panicking the masses and driving share prices lower.

And I actually think that some of these articles are well written with excellent assumptions.

[bull....]

Pathetic feeble attempt really from you, bull...

Anyone half-intelligent knows that Saudi Arabia has been hit extra hard by the oil price collapse and announced over the weekend that there's going to be very tough times ahead from budget cuts.

Try harder.

I can think of several extremely negative articles in various publications predicting the end of the world as we know it which would serve your purpose of panicking the masses and driving share prices lower.

And I actually think that some of these articles are well written with excellent assumptions.

you need to post links to these articles keep us all informed. futures have just opened down around the world is it because pompeo says yesterday the bat lab in china caused the virus or bad news for balance the printing presses have a shortfall of ink at the moment

[Balance]

you need to post links to these articles keep us all informed. futures have just opened down around the world is it because pompeo says yesterday the bat lab in china caused the virus or bad news for balance the printing presses have a shortfall of ink at the moment

Hardly a surprise when markets have had a fantastic April. Markets need a breather once in a while - on the way up and on the way down.

You are doing the job of posting all the doomsday articles - just not doing a good job with your irrational scatter-gun approach, Saudi Arabia being a prime example.

Try harder.

Pompeo's claims come from the very same intelligence service (now even worse than before) which brought the world WOMD, remember? 🤪

Think US will invade China like it invaded Iraq? Bullyboy US only picks fight with those it think it can win easily and it still got its nose bloodied & kicked all the way back to Washington in Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan.

If you do, then prepare for the real END of the world because the nuclear war fallout will block the sun for a decade and wipe most life from Earth.🥶

[bull....]

Hardly a surprise when markets have had a fantastic April. Markets need a breather once in a while - on the way up and on the way down.

You are doing the job of posting all the doomsday articles - just not doing a good job with your irrational scatter-gun approach, Saudi Arabia being a prime example.

Try harder.

Pompeo's claims come from the very same intelligence service (now even worse than before) which brought the world WOMD, remember? 浪

Think US will invade China like it invaded Iraq?

If you do, then prepare for the real END of the world because the nuclear war fallout will block the sun for a decade and wipe most life from Earth.略

well i guess thats how they finally ended the great depression isnt it , so lets hope we dont go there.

you should read this article on how the fed caused the depression in 1930s , i know your find it hard to comprehend considering yourself and many others have been brain washed by the media into believing that money printing today is different to what they did in the depression

The Gold Standard Didn’t Create the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve Did
https://fee.org/articles/the-gold-standard-didn-t-create-the-great-depression-the-federal-reserve-did/

[Balance]

well i guess thats how they finally ended the great depression isnt it , so lets hope we dont go there.

you should read this article on how the fed caused the depression in 1930s , i know your find it hard to comprehend considering yourself and many others have been brain washed by the media into believing that money printing today is different to what they did in the depression

The Gold Standard Didn’t Create the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve Did

https://fee.org/articles/the-gold-standard-didn-t-create-the-great-depression-the-federal-reserve-did/

The article reinforces why the Federal Reserve has acted the way it successfully did to head off the possibility of another Great Depression in 1987, 1997, 2007.

Next doomsday article.

You are coming up with positive affirmations, rather than doomsday articles?

[bull....]

The article reinforces why the Federal Reserve has acted the way it successfully did to head off the possibility of another Great Depression in 1987, 1997, 2007.

Next doomsday article.

You are coming up with positive affirmations, rather than doomsday articles?

it was china that saved the world after the GFC and created the boom afterwards not the fed. china is not going to save the world this time

[Balance]

it was china that saved the world after the GFC and created the boom afterwards not the fed. china is not going to save the world this time


Yawn.

Not good enough, bull...

You are now really slipping.

[Aaron]

The article reinforces why the Federal Reserve has acted the way it successfully did to head off the possibility of another Great Depression in 1987, 1997, 2007.

Next doomsday article.

You are coming up with positive affirmations, rather than doomsday articles?

But each time interest rates have gone down since the 1980s and now they are near zero with no chance they will rise for a very long time. Each crisis the stimulus needs to be larger and larger. Are you suggesting this is sustainable long term or does it only need to last the length of our lifetime and our kids can inherit the mess.

[dobby41]

Pompeo's claims come from the very same intelligence service (now even worse than before) which brought the world WOMD, remember? ��


Actually, from what I have read, the US intelligence community (an oxymoron) doesn't believe what Pompeo is saying.
It's pretty much discredited the Wuhan Lab theory.

[Balance]

But each time interest rates have gone down since the 1980s and now they are near zero with no chance they will rise for a very long time. Each crisis the stimulus needs to be larger and larger. Are you suggesting this is sustainable long term or does it only need to last the length of our lifetime and our kids can inherit the mess.

Up to each of us to do what we can to cushion our kids from the mess.

It is too late for the world to rein back on the liquidity out there.

[Balance]

you need to post links to these articles keep us all informed. futures have just opened down around the world is it because pompeo says yesterday the bat lab in china caused the virus or bad news for balance the printing presses have a shortfall of ink at the moment

NZX closes in positive territory - poor effort on your part, bull...😜

Aren’t you pleased though, bull... about the de-coupling of NZX (& ASX) from the US market and the incoherent rantings of the red haired demented circus clown Trump?🦧

TransTasman travel bubble next - hopefully we can all watch the badly hit tourism & hospitality sector recover. 💪

[Entrep]

Didn't pick you as a day trader Balance, particularly when you seem to post macro views. i guess you take whatever wins you can in this environment