Black Monday

[AndyLP]

Hi -

OK I started my journey recently to add some TA to the skill set. Am going through Trading for a Living and have spent some time with online resources. It does seem at least for the entry level tools like MACD, RSI etc a lot of the material seems to be geared toward relatively short time scales. Wondering what your favourite tools are for identifying longer term trend reversals? Also is it valid for instance, to switch to a lower frequency like a weekly chart and still get useful data from those tools?

[ratkin]

Hi -

OK I started my journey recently to add some TA to the skill set. Am going through Trading for a Living and have spent some time with online resources. It does seem at least for the entry level tools like MACD, RSI etc a lot of the material seems to be geared toward relatively short time scales. Wondering what your favourite tools are for identifying longer term trend reversals? Also is it valid for instance, to switch to a lower frequency like a weekly chart and still get useful data from those tools?

I found a copy of trading for a living, it was in the supa shed (charity shop) for one dollar. In its day i dare say it was a useful book, however that day is long gone. Entries and exits by the same author is much better imo, although i have a bit of a problem with Elder

He writes nice glossy books, but it has to remember he makes his money writing about trading, not from actually trading, just like most in the TA industry. He also has a very annoying habit of mentioning what car people drive, or what yacht people own. Makes him sound like a typical snake oil salesman

Indicators, put nice little patterns under your charts, but they pretty much all do the same thing, ie tell you what the price has done. they. all tend to give buy and sell signals around the same time. The only one i bother using these days is a coloured CCI on a weekly chart, just for visual purposes really. I can see at a glance whats in a bad way, or becoming interesting.

After a while you will find they just clutter the place up and cause lazy thinking. A Simple price chart with no indicators is better. Learn where to put support and resistance lines. Breakouts are the easiest to trade imo. Find charts that have spent a long time in a range, then wait for the breakout. Nice and simple, and easy to judge where to put stops etc. Bsst to work with long term weekly charts as they take out the noise, then as you see the breakout happen switch to the daily to time your entry.

I favour a mixed approach. One author i recommend is Colin Nicholson, who uses long term charts as an investment aid. He also has a very good subscription service for around 60 dollars a year which contains far more information than any book. I highly recommend you read his books and join his website. Not sure what his latest book is called, but the aggressive investor was very good. He is Australian so it very relevent to most of us.. He buys good quality dividend paying stocks at the right time, and holds them until the long term trend changes

[Nasi Goreng]

Nasi Goreng , what's your thoughts generally on the equity markets? Correction? More downside to come? Or great buying opportunity?

It's hard to sum up because every company is different at different stages but I think the correction is healthy for equity markets and a bit overdue.

The correction still goes on and we will probably see the lows tested and possibly see lower lows. I think interest rates are too low for the big bear to take another 10-20% but we will see. The next quarterly earnings season in U.S. will be very important as well as what the fed does later this month.

In general, I think it's really volatile out there with big swings in both directions, very hard to pick from week to week. My point in previous post was around this. We could see a 5% swing next week in either direction. I'm probably more bullish now than 3 months ago and looking for opportunities but doing this very carefully.

[Daytr]

Thanks, yeah I was more referring to indices than individual stocks.
I have been bearish on the DOW for instance for 6 months.
PEs were too high & a higher dollar was always going to hurt international companies that make up the DOW.
The USD seems to be consolidating against major currencies so that's a plus.
However earnings are weakening & not just for those exposed to the dollar.
With significantly lower oil it impacts almost everything cost wise in our lives, as there is an energy component to it, either in its production/manufacture or delivery. So if the overall price of something deflates, so to will the revenue in total dollars made likely reduce, over time.
And I have also said with zero interest rates, again a reduction in costs to business, total dollars should reduce in total dollar profits.
But that takes time as competition forces margins to be squeezed down to where they were in percentage terms.
I also think we will have a debt crisis in regards the oil industry in the US & Canada.
Perhaps oil recovers in time to stave off any implosion, however I think it is a very real & likely outcome.
If & when that happens I think we will then see a bottom.
The DOW is at a reasonably key level of support & if breaks again, we should see 15k & if a debt crisis unfolds as I suspect then 12-13k in the DOW is on the cards in my view. The US economy is in ok shape generally, but there are some quite hefty imbalances as well.
China I'm not so worried about as I think its just a matter of a new economy finding its feet more than anything else.
Europe's still a mess and they go from one crisis to another. The refugee crisis could actually act as a catalyst for growth if they stopped putting fences up and started building accommodation for them etc.

[bull....]

I started investing part time in the markets from 1987 and owned chase, anzon and lost everything what a experience, I never invested again until 1995 as I spent most of my money on beer and food back in those days as a lot of young fellows do.
In 1995 I brought port of Tauranga for 1 dollar , micheal hill for 63c and sold them for some good profits in a relatively short time I decided trading was fun easy quick money, so I thought, it was far from easy I ended up losing most of the time and the broker sure got rich over the years they loved me - now I know why in hindsight again

Anyway being a persistant person who likes to battle away until they can achieve there goal I kept plugging away I achieved my goal and have been trading professionally the last 10yrs and probably on average earn more return than most professional fund people ( buy and hold included) over the time period.

Guess the points in hindsight again is that if I had used buy and hold on my port of Tauranga and micheal hill I would have made a lot more over the long run than simply trading them and paid a hell of lot less brokerage.
Trading is great for profits "if you can do it" its not as easy as some people try to make out and timing the market is definitely not easy and is really only suited to people who can spend a lot of time watching the markets.
keep learning learning and learning I still consider myself very dumb compared to some people
buy and hold ( if you get the right stock ) works if you don't can lead to ruin
Trading works
Decide what type of investor you are is critical and this depends on your personality

I have evolved and based on my learnings and personality now consider a core and satellite approach to investing, is best suited to me. best of both worlds, in 10yrs time again in hindsight I will know if this worked out for me lol

[Daytr]

Totally agree Bull.

[JBmurc]

Some wise words ....had I sold all my shares in 2011-12 I'd have saved a bundle ..of money and stress ..Trading isn't easy by any means... I wouldn't recommend it ...esp in the ASX sectors I've focused it's be very hard ..

[ratkin]

Guess the points in hindsight again is that if I had used buy and hold on my port of Tauranga and micheal hill I would have made a lot more over the long run than simply trading them and paid a hell of lot less brokerage.


Cant say for sure, but i have the feeling that if i had never sold a share during the past twenty five years then i would have a higher net worth than i do now. Yes a few of the stocks would have drifted to zero, but quite a few other that i did sell have gone on to be huge multi baggers, which would have more than compensated.

[kiora]

Re Bull
In '87 was also in Chase,equiticorp etc.Portfolio reduced by itself by 70 % but found by cashing out & adding better Q stocks I had made it all back within 2 years
I go along with your thoughts there Bull.Whenever considering a company I first decide if I consider the company will be around for 10-20 years.If it is yes ,sector has long term prospects & management is top notch then worth buying & holding for long term rather than a trading stock.Long term share markets rise & if you are holding the right stocks your portfolio will rise faster than the market.
Conversely if the stock requires constant monitoring because of its volatility I get the sense than some traders on here are just engaging themselves in a time consuming job rather than an investment that should work for them
This time around my portfolio is down 5% but nothing needs to be sold & the dividends provide an exceptional income.
Just for fun I do allocate up to 10%of my portfolio for a few specy's but they more often than not they don't do well for me & cause augst.Best one was SKL after their cap raising at 50 cents.Worst NWF now sold,OHE at break even after selling half

[BeeBop]

Kiora..I am with you on the specs. I have one or two little ones as they keep me busy and keeps my focus away from the "real" portfolio....THAL on the LSE was my most recent disaster (thank goodness it was only a small investment.....once it was down a good percentage (:mad ;:) I sold and then bought one which has been promptly taken over...net gain GBP0.00 - ultimately the real portfolio remains untouched and continues to truck away just nicely with no harm done other than entertain my dreams of striking the big one.

[couta1]

Do others on here view Diligent as a spec play? I've got quite a bit tied up in the stock(Currently running at a reasonable loss) I see it as different from the other SAS companies and Biotech in that its sitting on a big cash pile and has a great product/s which are desirable with lot of growth potential. Personally I can only see a $10 plus share in a few years but it doesn't pay a divvy so spec or not?

[James108]

Do others on here view Diligent as a spec play? I've got quite a bit tied up in the stock(Currently running at a reasonable loss) I see it as different from the other SAS companies and Biotech in that its sitting on a big cash pile and has a great product/s which are desirable with lot of growth potential. Personally I can only see a $10 plus share in a few years but it doesn't pay a divvy so spec or not?

I would view it as very speculative. PE>30 and only 3 years of financial statements i.e. no track record. For me to invest in this company I would expect growth averaging around 15% p.a for the next 20 years, if you think projecting that kind of growth isnt speculative I don't know what to say.

"its sitting on a big cash pile and has a great product/s which are desirable with lot of growth potential. " you just described every high growth spec stock on the nzx

[couta1]

I would view it as very speculative. PE>30 and only 3 years of financial statements i.e. no track record. For me to invest in this company I would expect growth averaging around 15% p.a for the next 20 years, if you think projecting that kind of growth isnt speculative I don't know what to say.

"its sitting on a big cash pile and has a great product/s which are desirable with lot of growth potential. " you just described every high growth spec stock on the nzx
Interesting viewpoint except I don't know many other high growth stocks that are sitting on a cash pile on the NZX,all the others are cash flow negative(SAS type stocks)

[kiora]

Do others on here view Diligent as a spec play? I've got quite a bit tied up in the stock(Currently running at a reasonable loss) I see it as different from the other SAS companies and Biotech in that its sitting on a big cash pile and has a great product/s which are desirable with lot of growth potential. Personally I can only see a $10 plus share in a few years but it doesn't pay a divvy so spec or not?

IM view a reasonable spec play but questionable income play as no imputation credits
so will they pay a dividend ?
http://www.4-traders.com/DILIGENT-CORP-10297052/financials/
High PE still and growth slowing ?
New CEO investing for growth
So end game is what?,a take over ? by who?
Wouldn't anyone that is going to have offered a takeover by now?

[James108]

Granted I have only had a quick look at their financials and you are right their net cash position gives you a bit more confidence than the likes of companies who are burning cash or have a net debt.

However... their "cash pile" equates to 0.73c per share, if you take this into account you get a PE of 28. Still very high, still very speculative, still requiring long periods of high growth to justify.

I would like to see what valuation you place on them. It appears to me like you dont attempt to assign any value to companies by using earnings ratios, discounted cash flows or another method. Therefore any stock you purchase would be speculative.

[ratkin]

Interesting viewpoint except I don't know many other high growth stocks that are sitting on a cash pile on the NZX,all the others are cash flow negative(SAS type stocks)

It is the kind of stock that will be really hammered in any general market selloff. I would be tempted to check out, and jump back in again when the dust settles. Of course if you own a shedload it might not be easy to exit.
Mind you i sold out of Tenon last week on the grounds it very illiquid. Next day they announce dividends are back and price shot up. Having held for four years, i probably sold on the worst day possible. Bloody market selloffs

[RTM]

CASH is KING !!!!!!
We need a separate thread on how to avoid the temptation to spend it on "STUFF". Is there some way to ban yourself from Trade Me's website LOL

Don't know what you mean Roger.
http://www.apple.com/shop/product/HA779VC/A/philips-hue-connected-bulb-starter-pack

[trader_jackson]

All I am going to say is that if the fed hold interest rates, stocks will rally around the world and very quickly forget about this 'blip' we have had in recent weeks...

I have a feeling there could be a huge rebound late September

[nextbigthing]

Do others on here view Diligent as a spec play? I've got quite a bit tied up in the stock(Currently running at a reasonable loss) I see it as different from the other SAS companies and Biotech in that its sitting on a big cash pile and has a great product/s which are desirable with lot of growth potential. Personally I can only see a $10 plus share in a few years but it doesn't pay a divvy so spec or not?

Couta mate, please tell me you didn't buy this share because you read on Sharetrader that 'they're sitting on a huge cash pile' and 'they have good growth'.

Obviously you're a determined guy and will do whatever you want, but meant in the nicest way, I get the feeling you might be a little impressionable. Perhaps you should pick companies, DYOR, make up your own mind, THEN check Sharetrader to see if you've missed anything and if others seem to be in agreement, and not the other way around.

Hope it all pans out anyway mate :)
NBT

[warthog]

… their "cash pile" equates to 0.73c per share…

That doesn't sound like an awful lot.

[couta1]

NBT no I didn't buy it because of huge cash pile(I like what the company does and its future prospects) but yes when I first come on the forum I did get caught up in a lot of hype ( I mean Snaak the next best thing since sliced bread, yeah right) no need to mention any other companies names but there were others. To me the share market is like a marathon(Those that have run one or so will know exactly what I mean) the race only starts at the 20 mile mark and its the finishing that matters most not how well one started out. TJ, I love your optimism:cool:

[Baa_Baa]

Let's not forget the NZX does respond to external markets. With the DOW and SP5 down Friday looking to test recent (tenuous) support, and the China markets having been closed late last week creating uncertainty, but re-opening on Monday (perhaps emboldened by celebrations involving their massive military might). The big international money in our market needs to and will make some decisions. Friday looked like distribution day, some up, some down, movement from risk to relative safety and vice versa, depending on perspectives. The pattern emerging locally is the footprint of the big money. There's no doubt the US markets have reverted down again from the dead cat bounce, so keep nimble in our antipodean backwater market, we are at the end of the whipping hose but also at the dawn of the global markets.

[Daytr]

The market is already pricing in a 75% chance that they wont raise rates in September, so I suspect your optimism is misplaced, although we are likely to get a small bounce. Do you really think what we have seen is about a possible 1/4% rise in rates?


All I am going to say is that if the fed hold interest rates, stocks will rally around the world and very quickly forget about this 'blip' we have had in recent weeks...

I have a feeling there could be a huge rebound late September

[Daytr]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Chinese markets rally hard tomorrow, mostly based on patriotism from their recent celebrations. Just a gut feeling, but we may see what I call a ra ra rally. Quite often see that after US holidays as everyone comes back in a good mood & buys.
I wouldn't bet my house on it, but it wouldn't surprise me.


Let's not forget the NZX does respond to external markets. With the DOW and SP5 down Friday looking to test recent (tenuous) support, and the China markets having been closed late last week creating uncertainty, but re-opening on Monday (perhaps emboldened by celebrations involving their massive military might). The big international money in our market needs to and will make some decisions. Friday looked like distribution day, some up, some down, movement from risk to relative safety and vice versa, depending on perspectives. The pattern emerging locally is the footprint of the big money. There's no doubt the US markets have reverted down again from the dead cat bounce, so keep nimble in our antipodean backwater market, we are at the end of the whipping hose but also at the dawn of the global markets.

[Baa_Baa]

You could be right Daytr, which is why I mentioned the China celebrations, it just creates more uncertainty. A rally followed by reality-check could also happen. On their own, the DOW and SP5 Friday broke below and closed below the steep uptrend line from the dead cat, so as of Friday they are saying "going lower" (to at least test support) which is what the current futures are hinting at as well. China however will open well before, so they will send up the smoke signals that US and Euro will interpret. NZX and ASX are in the wilderness, I expect the big international money to sniff out their options and place their bets prior to and through lunchtime locally. Tomorrow is not a good day to buy or sell the NZX open. Imho.



I wouldn't be surprised to see Chinese markets rally hard tomorrow, mostly based on patriotism from their recent celebrations. Just a gut feeling, but we may see what I call a ra ra rally. Quite often see that after US holidays as everyone comes back in a good mood & buys.
I wouldn't bet my house on it, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[Daytr]

I am more bearish US markets from current levels than I am Chinese.
I've been buying the Indian index quite a bit lately & have done quite well out of it.

[Beagle]

I am more bearish US markets from current levels than I am Chinese.
I've been buying the Indian index quite a bit lately & have done quite well out of it.

What's the average PE of stocks on the Shanghai market..last I hear was 17 but that was a couple of weeks ago, so at a guess were somewhere about 15 now ?

[Baa_Baa]

The buy hold and pray's might ponder this as well ... if you have a share that for example halves in value, goes down 50%, that same share has to go up 100% just to get back to where you started.

Looking at your loses through that lense may assist is in considering whether preserving capital via a 'momentum investing' strategy is worth the effort of learning how to read a simple price chart.

[Daytr]

To be honest I don't know & I wouldn't trust the figures even if I did. But I do know is that China still has double or triple the growth of the Western world & it is driven by the Government and all the companies on the Shanghai exchange are SOEs.


What's the average PE of stocks on the Shanghai market..last I hear was 17 but that was a couple of weeks ago, so at a guess were somewhere about 15 now ?

[James108]

That doesn't sound like an awful lot.

Ooops! ment to be 73 cents or 0.73 dollars! So it is reasonable

[Daytr]

Actually I just looked it up its a bit over 15 for the A class shares. I think it was around 24 at its peak.
They should command high PEs due to their 7% growth rate.

[Beagle]

Actually I just looked it up its a bit over 15 for the A class shares. I think it was around 24 at its peak.
They should command high PEs due to their 7% growth rate.

Doesn't seem too bad considering interest rates around the world are extremely low. Considering their economic growth relative to ours I reckon it makes our market look expensive.

[Daytr]

I agree (although Chinese data isn't all that robust) and the Chinese have announced at the G20 they will increase dividends. See what I mean about being State run. Can you imagine the US or NZ government saying that !


Doesn't seem too bad considering interest rates around the world are extremely low. Considering their economic growth relative to ours I reckon it makes our market look expensive.

[stevevai1983]

What's the average PE of stocks on the Shanghai market..last I hear was 17 but that was a couple of weeks ago, so at a guess were somewhere about 15 now ?

Shanghai market overall PE is extremely misleading. The market PE is 15.6 which looks absolutely fine.
But we have lots of heavy weighted bank with 6~7PE, 0.9~1PB !!

You really need to look at ShenZheng market. ShenZheng market doesn't have banks and it's mainly medium to small size companies(MC about 1.2 billion to 10 billion NZD).
The average PE is now 32.6 and PB is 3.6. The past 4 years 2011-2014 average PE was 26.7 and PB was 3.1
So overall we have financial sector is very cheap. Rest of the market is still expensive.

[ratkin]

Interesting viewpoint except I don't know many other high growth stocks that are sitting on a cash pile on the NZX,all the others are cash flow negative(SAS type stocks)

7587

using weekly chart for investing would have had very good reults with two trades in the last four years. Just buying using weekly CCI and placing stocks under lows would have been very good. The second trade would have been exited two weeks ago

[NZSilver]

Here is something that could bring even more volatility to the markets over the coming months, especially is Russia launches its own operations in Syria.
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11508956

[Daytr]

Yep agree NZSilver. Both France & Britain said they were considering airstrikes in Syria to target Assad regime military. This could be the next Afghanistan, quite probably worse as they are taking on a far better equipped military than the Taliban.

[bull....]

have the dow sitting right on support as of Friday, if doesn't hold probably retest of lows to come

[warthog]

Ooops! ment to be 73 cents or 0.73 dollars! So it is reasonable

100x better!!

[couta1]

Says a lot when the Black Monday thread is the main focus on share trader of late, lot of members ozzing red ink I'd imagine apart from the cashed up ones, sometimes silence speaks for itself aye.

[Beagle]

Here is something that could bring even more volatility to the markets over the coming months, especially is Russia launches its own operations in Syria.
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11508956

And this deployment is a concern
http://presstv.ir/Detail/2015/08/25/426241/US-russia-nato-Ukraine

[Daytr]

Perhaps, but there will be some who have been bearish for sometime and have made money from the move down.
Always a difficult time for those investors that are in the red, but is the nature of the beast.
Can't expect it always to go one way & just reminds people that with every investment there is an element of risk, especially in this Central Bank dominated global economic model.


Says a lot when the Black Monday thread is the main focus on share trader of late, lot of members ozzing red ink I'd imagine apart from the cashed up ones, sometimes silence speaks for itself aye.

[Beagle]

Shanghai market overall PE is extremely misleading. The market PE is 15.6 which looks absolutely fine.
But we have lots of heavy weighted bank with 6~7PE, 0.9~1PB !!

You really need to look at ShenZheng market. ShenZheng market doesn't have banks and it's mainly medium to small size companies(MC about 1.2 billion to 10 billion NZD).
The average PE is now 32.6 and PB is 3.6. The past 4 years 2011-2014 average PE was 26.7 and PB was 3.1
So overall we have financial sector is very cheap. Rest of the market is still expensive.

Good post and welcome to the forum.

[Daytr]

China opens down 1.5%.
2 mins ago it rallied 2% in as many minutes.
I was waiting for it. The government stepping in.
G20 over the weekend, could read em like a book! ;-)

[skid]

im not surprised they have bounced (by the Gov.)after all the celebrations--Its huge 1 or only 2 per year----All the chinese tourists were watching it on their computers at our hotel.
Guess the test will be when it gets back to the real reasons it happened in the first place---most markets will probably do better today(barring US which is on holiday)

[BlackPeter]

And this deployment is a concern
http://presstv.ir/Detail/2015/08/25/426241/US-russia-nato-Ukraine

I agree - however I am not sure whether it is better to just let the Russians take whatever countries they please. As far as I remember - appeasement has been tried before, and it didn't work. Maybe time to invest into defense?

[skid]

Says a lot when the Black Monday thread is the main focus on share trader of late, lot of members ozzing red ink I'd imagine apart from the cashed up ones, sometimes silence speaks for itself aye.

Are you surprised at that?----Im sure if markets recover and go on their merry way,the thread will become very quiet indeed---but dont hold your breath---Its perfectly natural something had to give with an overvalued market--(of course they will do their best to tinker with it to get it running again----for how long?--well thats the question.

[Dentie]

Maybe time to invest into defense?

...or Attack?

[twotic]

Except it matters not what the Fed do - they are not the bank in control any more. We are in Quantitative Tightening mode already and there is nothing the Fed can do about it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-02/welcome-to-quantitative-tightening-as-12-trillion-reserves-fall

KW are you just regurgitating what that article says, or do you actually believe the FED has no influence these days?

[twotic]

I already had made this point last week before that article was written. The idea that the central banks have lost control and run out of ammunition is not a new one. Its what happens when we live in a global economy where every market is connected - you cant just do your own thing in your own country and not expect other countries to be affected or retaliate.
OK, I haven't read your earlier post. It just sounded like you were saying the FED has no influence anymore. But I agree, control is a different thing and it appears unlike the last few years, there are many other significant things at play other than the work of the FED affecting asset prices. That's not to say that if the FED holds rates there will be no reaction though, which is what I read you as saying earlier.

[twotic]

I am saying that you should not assume that the reaction would be a positive one. The market may take the news that the Fed is no longer able to dictate its own interest rate policy for the benefit of its domestic economy, but is being dictated to by other central banks around the world looking to shore up their own economies - as not a great outcome.
Haha, I think you give the average Jo a bit too much credit. Central Bank Credibility is something I have only ever heard economists talk about. I understand what you are saying though. But you know, Central Banks actual cash rate vs their projected cash rates diverge all the time in reaction to market forces. If the FED believes market conditions have changed to the extent that they need to alter the forecast path of their cash rate then I suspect the likely outcome would be a bullish one as opposed to a bearish one (in the short term that is). Bigger picture though I suspect you and I are probably on the same wavelength. What % of your assets do you currently have in equities if you don't mind me asking?

[twotic]

I think the Fed is damned if they do and damned if they dont. They should raise rates - that signals that everything is on the right track in the economy for them to do so. Which it appears to be - albeit a very slow growing one. But the market loves the low interest rate environment as it keeps pumping the asset bubbles - which is not good for the long term, as all bubbles pop eventually. The wild card for the market is whether all the other stuff going on will have more impact on the market direction than the US interest rate.

I have about 40% still in equities - in AREITs only. I've exited all my growth stock positions (although note I only invest in Australia, and they are headed in to a recession, as well as suffering a stock market slump). I am holding about 20% in US$ which I want to use to buy US stocks - so I am waiting out this correction/bear market before doing so.

Yup, I agree.

I'm 100% out of equities (including kiwisaver) as of today. My situation dictates I need to minimise risk right now, but regardless I am taking the same position I did in 2007 which is get out and wait for it all to tumble. Might have started happening already, or might take another year or two, but I just can't envisage a situation where a crash is not inevitable in the near enough future - Time is on my side so I am happy to be patient and wait before entering again down the track.

[stevevai1983]

im not surprised they have bounced (by the Gov.)after all the celebrations--Its huge 1 or only 2 per year----All the chinese tourists were watching it on their computers at our hotel.
Guess the test will be when it gets back to the real reasons it happened in the first place---most markets will probably do better today(barring US which is on holiday)

Gov stated last night: they will not buy anymore shares unless it reaches "crisis" level again.
Today's bounced is not by Gov.
Majority Chinese investors are still very pessimistic about the near future.

Chinese market is far more complicated than NZ here.
We now have most blue chip stocks that are fair valued, some of them are even quite cheap.
However we have the rest average or crap companies that are still extremely over valued. Lots of stocks still have PE more than 100 or PB more than 10.

It's hard for value investor like me atm.
e.g I hold some top quality stocks that are fairly valued or cheap. However if the market crashes again, those stocks may become "cheaper" :)

[Beagle]

I agree - however I am not sure whether it is better to just let the Russians take whatever countries they please. As far as I remember - appeasement has been tried before, and it didn't work. Maybe time to invest into defense?

Yes...who can ever forget Hitler. I think sending the F22's sends a signal that needs to be sent both in terms of America's support for Nato and the implied threat of retaliation against the encroachment by the Russians into Ukraine.
There's so many things to worry about on a global basis its often hard to know what's most concerning ?
Its ironic you mention investing in defence. I actually looked into who makes the predator drones the other day, (I think there will be stunning exponential growth in demand for weaponised drones as war's by proxy evolve in different theatre's all over the world). General Atomics...here you are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

I wouldn't mind betting they can't build these things fast enough but I don't have the stomach to invest in weapons manufacturers.

[Beagle]

The way Putin's heading they might be jumping out of the frying pan into the fire :eek2: Sometimes it's nice to be a long way away from all the trouble isn't it.
Now I'm sitting on a pile of cash, like you I'm not fretting this thing too much. Went for a good walk in the sun this afternoon, felt good to smell the roses so too speak.

[couta1]

Meanwhile retirement villages are still selling units, Air is still flying planes, power companies are still producing power etc etc and will continue to do so:cool:

[Beagle]

And Jaguar dealers are still selling the occasional Jaguar :cool:...just not too me LOL

[couta1]

And Jaguar dealers are still selling the occasional Jaguar :cool:...just not too me LOL
No worries mate, I've got a modified job you can buy, no air con or other fancy stuff just 650 ponies of tyre shredding power, oh and I forgot to mention it does 4.5km per litre of gas.

[Hectorplains]

Yes...who can ever forget Hitler. I think sending the F22's sends a signal that needs to be sent both in terms of America's support for Nato and the implied threat of retaliation against the encroachment by the Russians into Ukraine.
There's so many things to worry about on a global basis its often hard to know what's most concerning ?
Its ironic you mention investing in defence. I actually looked into who makes the predator drones the other day, (I think there will be stunning exponential growth in demand for weaponised drones as war's by proxy evolve in different theatre's all over the world). General Atomics...here you are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

I wouldn't mind betting they can't build these things fast enough but I don't have the stomach to invest in weapons manufacturers.

Ah there it is! Godwin's law...

[Hoop]

Ah there it is! Godwin's law...
brilliant... well spotted :D

[Hoop]

They keep telling us that we should stop talking the market down....obviously no one told Ms Lagarde...

(Global) Growth is too low, trade is too low, investment is too low and unemployment still too high, Ms. Lagarde said, adding that "more implementation is urgently needed."



The IMF also warned the Fed again against raising interest rates prematurely. The fund has repeatedly said the U.S. central bank should delay a rate increase until 2016, not only because the American economy isn't ready, but also because of the global implications.

Full article (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imfs-lagarde-calls-for-urgent-economic-overhauls-2015-09-07)

[kiora]

Ah there it is! Godwin's law...

Hurray ! Black Monday is officially over :)
Where to next ?

[RTM]

Some great photos.
http://media.ga-asi.com/photo-library/aircraft-platforms/#jp-carousel-1903
Seems its a privately held company anyway. Wonder who owns them ?
Californian based company....derivative of the Google folk ?
http://www.ga-asi.com/about-ga-asi
Must be cool developing these things....even if the function is pretty sad.

RTM


Yes...who can ever forget Hitler. I think sending the F22's sends a signal that needs to be sent both in terms of America's support for Nato and the implied threat of retaliation against the encroachment by the Russians into Ukraine.
There's so many things to worry about on a global basis its often hard to know what's most concerning ?
Its ironic you mention investing in defence. I actually looked into who makes the predator drones the other day, (I think there will be stunning exponential growth in demand for weaponised drones as war's by proxy evolve in different theatre's all over the world). General Atomics...here you are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator

I wouldn't mind betting they can't build these things fast enough but I don't have the stomach to invest in weapons manufacturers.

[Daytr]

Well I suppose if you are part of the EU things still aint lookin so good.
The unemployment number in the US is also misleading, you just need to look at the participation rate to see that.



They keep telling us that we should stop talking the market down....obviously no one told Ms Lagarde...

(Global) Growth is too low, trade is too low, investment is too low and unemployment still too high, Ms. Lagarde said, adding that "more implementation is urgently needed."



The IMF also warned the Fed again against raising interest rates prematurely. The fund has repeatedly said the U.S. central bank should delay a rate increase until 2016, not only because the American economy isn't ready, but also because of the global implications.

Full article (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imfs-lagarde-calls-for-urgent-economic-overhauls-2015-09-07)

[Beagle]

Ah there it is! Godwin's law...

LOL you got me.


Some great photos.
http://media.ga-asi.com/photo-library/aircraft-platforms/#jp-carousel-1903
Seems its a privately held company anyway. Wonder who owns them ?
Californian based company....derivative of the Google folk ?
http://www.ga-asi.com/about-ga-asi
Must be cool developing these things....even if the function is pretty sad.
RTM

WOW thanks for that mate...some scary looking photo's there especially the ones with small missiles underwing :eek2:
Its a sad world where we need these things to try and maintain some sort of order. If they ever make those things capable of deploying a tactical small nuke then we could have a really serious problem brewing...one more thing to worry about.

[Daytr]

Oil smashed again, not a great signal.

[couta1]

Oil smashed again, not a great signal.
Good for Airlines though.

[Daytr]

Yep & the consumer.


Good for Airlines though.

[xafalcon]

Yep & the consumer.

How do you figure that the consumer is getting the benefit? I'm paying almost the same at the pump as when oil was north of US$100 per barrel. Now it's in the US$40's.

Importer margins have increased hugely, the oil companies are simply keeping the profit

Forex only explains a fraction of the price gouging

If it's happening in NZ, it's happening elsewhere. Big oil are slowing world growth by doing this

[Biscuit]

Ah there it is! Godwin's law...

I don't think Roger's statement falls under the ambit of Godwin's law, at least not according to Wikipaedia: "Godwin's law applies especially to inappropriate, inordinate, or hyperbolic comparisons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbole) of other situations (or one's opponent) with Nazis – often referred to as "playing the Hitler card (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_Hitlerum)"."

[Hoop]

Good for Airlines though.

Yep..its great news for the AirNZ's competitors

[couta1]

Yep..its great news for the AirNZ's competitors A rising tide lifts all boats,Air is well positioned.

[twotic]

For those Buy and Hold advocates - a simple exercise in maths.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits&p=590348&viewfull=1#post590348

I have to say I am surprised a post like this is even needed! That being said, reading this forum it is clear that there are a number of people who simply have zilch in the way of exit strategies. I hope it makes some people think but I wouldn't hold my breath!

[BlackPeter]

A rising tide lifts all boats,Air is well positioned.

rising tide? You might well be right, but maybe we need to change the name of the thread ... what about "Golden Tuesday"?

[ratkin]

Markets are very brave when the DOW is on holiday

[BlackPeter]

For those Buy and Hold advocates - a simple exercise in maths.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits&p=590348&viewfull=1#post590348

Yes, but ... it is equally easy to find examples where shares have less clear rises and drops - and you actually would loose money if you follow a strategy of buying and selling every time you pass your chosen MA. Only with the benefit of hindsight can you decide whether a particular break through is significant or not - and if you wait for additional indicators, than the margin gets still slimmer, than it often is.

If there would be a fool proof strategy, than we all would be millionaires (well, maybe we are;)?)

[skid]

just depends on what currency KW--Just been to Laos where the kip is 8200 to the $us

Meanwhile I also think the DOW (futures) is a brave market in light of whats going on in China.

Im waiting for the new best seller in the states ''Buy-Hold-Prey''

[twotic]

Yes, but ... it is equally easy to find examples where shares have less clear rises and drops - and you actually would loose money if you follow a strategy of buying and selling every time you pass your chosen MA. Only with the benefit of hindsight can you decide whether a particular break through is significant or not - and if you wait for additional indicators, than the margin gets still slimmer, than it often is.

If there would be a fool proof strategy, than we all would be millionaires (well, maybe we are;)?)

Would be nice if KW had come up with a full proof strategy to make us all insanely rich, however she does provide an example which is roughly representative of what you would expect on aggregate (the trend at least) right? That would be the point I take out of her post anyway.

[bull....]

I don't think anyone will get rich using a moving average crossover system in the long run - easy in hindsight to fit some averages but considering they are lagging indicators and most markets trade sideways most off the time your end up losing the majority of the time.

[NZSilver]

Guys if I was you I would take particular note to KWs posts. As someone said to me once "just shut up and listen, you will learn a lot" KW is not saying it always works but is giving you some very useful tools to aid your decision making when investing. I find KWs information superb, and personally rate KW in the among the top posters on ST. And I know KW like others does a lot of research and it is great it they share all the good stuff on here. Also there is a post somewhere when KW declares their portfolio popped past 1 million, it was a while back so I'd say it was north of their before the recent sell up - so KW obviously has a very successful strategy. Thankful again KW

I've only been investing 4 years and in my mid twenties, but have implemented people's advice on ST, by sorting it from some of the not so good advice which I have also acted on in the past - and regretted it. KW ta signals do aid in investing, I've looked retrospectively on some investments I've made - some bad / some good. And if is followed some TA analysis with my fundamental investing strategy I would be better off, but I have done very well from the markets as ove been buying in a bull market which I didn't realise when I first started investing.

Time to get back to my book Using Technical Analysis which I bought from the hospice for $1 a few years ago but it sat around unread - should have picked it up earlier - it's got some great stuff

[ratkin]

I don't think anyone will get rich using a moving average crossover system in the long run - easy in hindsight to fit some averages but considering they are lagging indicators and most markets trade sideways most off the time your end up losing the majority of the time.

They work in strong trends, but then again so does everything else. They are rubbish in sideways markets. Pretty much since the GFC we have has plenty of strong uptrend so they have looked good, as has nearly everything else. When subject to rigourous testing the crossovers have been found wanting, however they are probbably better than nothing

[ratkin]

I cant give a complete run down of how momentum investing works in a few blog posts - people have written entire books on the subject. Which is why I recommend everyone goes and reads some of them. There are a lot of peripheral rules around using a moving average - such as what type of stock to use them on, what phase the market cycle is in, how to adjust them if you are buying more volatile stocks (which is why I trade my small caps, but hold my AREITs and use different MA periods for each). ....




Be carefule out there :t_up:

Your not preaching to a class of five year olds, i suspect everyone here has read scores of books about trends, moving averages , filters, whipsaws etc etc etc. You are sounding like a sixteen year old who thinks he has just discovered sex.

and on bears
all you have to do is (a) recognise it when its happening, and (b) play to its strength (which means sometimes doing nothing at all).

Do you really think its that easy???

n

[Biscuit]

Your not preaching to a class of five year olds, i suspect everyone here has read scores of books about trends, moving averages , filters, whipsaws etc etc etc. You are sounding like a sixteen year old who thinks he has just discovered sex.

and on bears
all you have to do is (a) recognise it when its happening, and (b) play to its strength (which means sometimes doing nothing at all).

Do you really think its that easy???

n

That's a bit harsh, and I really doubt that everyone on here has read scores of books about trends....

[warthog]

Your not preaching to a class of five year olds…

No, it might be worse than that. The hog knows a couple of five year-olds who have basic grammar down pat.

[Crackity]

No, it might be worse than that. The hog knows a couple of five year-olds who have basic grammar down pat.

I agree - Basic grammar very important hog. The difference between " I helped Uncle Jack off the horse. " and " I helped Uncle jack off the horse. " is a big one....:)

[warthog]

I agree - Basic grammar very important hog. The difference between " I helped Uncle Jack off the horse. " and " I helped Uncle jack off the horse. " is a big one....:)

Decades ago, the hog put up a notice on a university notice-board, in a country far, far away:

"Native English speaker available for help with writing, conversation, spelling, grammer, etc. Call…"

When the hog returned, somebody had been good enough to correct the hog's notice :mad ;:

[ratkin]

http://chartgame.com

Give yourselves 10/10

[Daytr]

Really wasn't referring to NZ but globally.
I filled up with 91 at $1.85, still quite a bit cheaper than it was a year ago,


How do you figure that the consumer is getting the benefit? I'm paying almost the same at the pump as when oil was north of US$100 per barrel. Now it's in the US$40's.

Importer margins have increased hugely, the oil companies are simply keeping the profit

Forex only explains a fraction of the price gouging

If it's happening in NZ, it's happening elsewhere. Big oil are slowing world growth by doing this

[Daytr]

Chinese market soaring up 4% at one stage.
Yanks back from their last long weekend of the summer.
Could be an up night. Another 150 points or so from here in the DOW & it starts breaking out of a flag formation... or not.
Could be a good level to get short.

[ratkin]

Would be fun, except it doesnt allow you to use a 200 day moving average. Nothing like nobbling the horses before they are even out of the gate.

click on two year and it switches to a weekly chart where you can apply a 40 period moving average (200 days)

[Hoop]

http://chartgame.com

Give yourselves 10/10
Too easy..Didn't use any indicators just used my eyes and visualised the approximate trend lines and S&R lines...it was fun though

[bull....]

Chinese market soaring up 4% at one stage.
Yanks back from their last long weekend of the summer.
Could be an up night. Another 150 points or so from here in the DOW & it starts breaking out of a flag formation... or not.
Could be a good level to get short.

nice bounce of the support, I have a symmetrical triangle in play and we sit right at the top at the time of writing - if it breaks to upside the bull may be still alive an kicking.
poor people who panicked or who are in cash may have missed the buy of the year - time will tell even asx looked like a bottom yesterday?

[trader_jackson]

Expecting NZX 50 to have a massive (well by new Zealand standards: over 1%) gain today... driven by yield stocks. With the prospect of interest rates being cut tomorrow 9am, I am really surprised MRP isn't $3+, GNE $2+, Heartland $1.20+ etc

[couta1]

Expecting NZX 50 to have a massive (well by new Zealand standards: over 1%) gain today... driven by yield stocks. With the prospect of interest rates being cut tomorrow 9am, I am really surprised MRP isn't $3+, GNE $2+, Heartland $1.20+ etc
Now there's a post that would make old Moosie proud.

[nextbigthing]

Expecting NZX 50 to have a massive (well by new Zealand standards: over 1%) gain today... driven by yield stocks. With the prospect of interest rates being cut tomorrow 9am, I am really surprised MRP isn't $3+, GNE $2+, Heartland $1.20+ etc

Feel free to bid them up to those levels. Thanks.

[Daytr]

I think what we have seen is what I mentioned. A ra ra rally, post G20 & holidays in the US & China.
Most indices I look at and some commodities like gold & crude have formed flag formations or up against reasonably key resistance levels.
I don't think I have ever seen markets so aligned from a TA perspective.
Has anything changed? Not really & probably good areas to short after a healthy clear out.
Oil could be one to watch as the footing for war against Syria has stepped up a notch, although I don't think we see ground troops, but the increase perhaps in airstrikes. It does increase the risk for supply disruption.

[Bjauck]

Decades ago, the hog put up a notice on a university notice-board, in a country far, far away:

"Native English speaker available for help with writing, conversation, spelling, grammer, etc. Call…"

When the hog returned, somebody had been good enough to correct the hog's notice :mad ;:

On TV One news the other day, the presenter (Dallow?) introduced a teaser on the Chinese stock market, after the teasers about the latest house fire and Gareth Morgan idea. I thought that was positive, maybe TV One was not completely tabloid-like. However he finished the teaser by saying that the reporter would be "all across" that story later in the bulletin. I wondered when did TV One become " so street". Maybe they will start to present the business in a rap next time. I remembered why I now got my news from different sources.

[Major von Tempsky]

So, could we have an apology from all the stupid lemmings who have recently predicted another Great Crash.....

[couta1]

So, could we have an apology from all the stupid lemmings who have recently predicted another Great Crash.....
Youll be lucky, they have probably loaded up now after concerted efforts to scare the shepple.

[Hoop]

nice bounce of the support, I have a symmetrical triangle in play and we sit right at the top at the time of writing - if it breaks to upside the bull may be still alive an kicking.
poor people who panicked or who are in cash may have missed the buy of the year - time will tell even asx looked like a bottom yesterday?

It would very wise to not get too carried away with the next rally (NZX50 hasn't got a rally yet)..be aware that if an NZX50 rally occurs there's a good chance it may not last long as we tend to be aligned with Global Markets...especially Wall St

At this moment Wall St is experiencing a still forming dead cat bounce pattern after its initial event (the steep fall).

The DCB event pattern is in play and a secondary event pattern the symmetrical triangle as Bull has observed has formed within the forming DCB event...Patterns within pattern are common and any secondary inside pattern breakouts are dictated by the primary pattern...As a forming DCB is a bearish event an upside breakouts from the inside symmetrical triangle (54% of the time) would more than likely be very short term and limited to the constraints set by the still forming DCB event...which looks to be at the 61.8% Fib resistance area (16700 DOW), but the DC bounce high point can on average take 23 days (Bulkowski) and we haven't had 23 days yet..
If the forming DCB progresses past the stage which sees the bounce established then its a 75% chance the fall will surpass the Beginning event bottom (<15700)

See my update on the DOW thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6114-Dow&p=590465#post590465)

[Aaron]

So, could we have an apology from all the stupid lemmings who have recently predicted another Great Crash.....
Sorry I've been wrong for the last couple of years, really sorry. No I mean it, sorry I have missed all those good returns by making the wrong call. My view is that valuations might come down if earnings slow down and businesses, govts and people start having trouble repaying their loans. I try not to get excited by every little up and down in the market.
But if commodities are a leading economic indicator maybe things will slow down but valuations might be underpinned by historically low interest rates and loose money, so who knows. I don't like to see people lose money but I would like the opportunity to by good companies at much lower prices. Property as well for that matter.

[twotic]

So, could we have an apology from all the stupid lemmings who have recently predicted another Great Crash.....
Out of interest, (1) who predicted a great crash? and (2) how have you established one is not coming and hence you deserve an apology?

[NZSilver]

Much to early to get back it yet on this small rally, markets still well down on highs - there is a long time between now and half year results from most listed companies - so I'm sure there will be ample opportunity to buy the majority of them at lower prices. Only positive I see for markets is low interest rates, so stocks with yields greater than 4-5% are attractive. Market rally will also increase likely hood FED will increase U.S. Interest rates - which will likely reduce capital flows into markets. I still think a high percentage of your portfolio in cash is a good play at this point.

[gv1]

So, could we have an apology from all the stupid lemmings who have recently predicted another Great Crash.....
Wait until next week then maybe u can ask for that.. after 13/9.

[xafalcon]

To a large degree China is driving sentiment on global markets. Looking back at past events to infer what may happen this time has one major flaw - the Chinese market is not truly free. If the Chinese government decides something needs to change, they will make it happen. Hence I do not believe any past market behaviour will be a useful guide as the how this will play out. I also do not believe the Chinese government will allow their growth target to be missed by a large margin, too much national/international pride would be lost. So I think it is highly likely they will continue to modify government policy to approximately meet their growth target, and the world will slowly realise that this was a period of over-reaction / misreading the situation.

I deal with Chinese authorities in my day job, and after a while you just stop asking why their authorities make arbitrary and unilateral decisions. It is just the Chinese way. Their people are used to it, I am getting used to it, the world will reach this conclusion in time.

[Nasi Goreng]

It's all ANZ's fault. They announce a capital raise and world markets tank. At the end of their capital raise, the stock rallies, Glencore capitulates, German stock market back in favour and world markets rally. Co-incidence... Hmm

[Daytr]

Yep totally agree Xafalcon & China is driving sentiment in the wider market.
However I think that is masking valuation issues and profit erosion due to a high dollar & low oil of US muti-nationals in particular.
Goldmans made a call around 6 months ago on US markets & when the lead merchant bank in the world talks down equities I listen.
As I said previously I am far less bearish Chinese markets than US markets, in fact I have been quite friendly to Chinese & Indian markets since this massive correction.

[couta1]

It's all ANZ's fault. They announce a capital raise and world markets tank. At the end of their capital raise, the stock rallies, Glencore capitulates, German stock market back in favour and world markets rally. Co-incidence... Hmm That's a lot of credit to give to a bank that's rated 42nd in the world.

[macduffy]

Odd, isn't it. The Western world has demanded for years that China float the yuan. So they finally take the first steps by widening the relationship to the dollar - not technically a devaluation - the yuan takes the expected move down, the rest of the world takes it badly!

;)

[xafalcon]

That is true. However, its the Chinese policy decisions that are reverberating through the global economy and impacting everyone else. Such as devaluing the yuan, selling their foreign reserves, and the capital flight into foreign assets. Everything has an impact, and its usually the far out ripple effects that do the most damage because they are unforeseen and unprepared for.

Devaluing the renminbi by 2% when it is tied to the rapidly appreciating US$ is a non-event. Nobody seems to have had any concerns about the renminbi artificially appreciating over the past 18 months through the US$ tie. And it's gone up by much more than 2% against most other currencies. Yes, they should have a floating currency, but they don't. So stepwise changes are the next best option

Capital flight into foreign assets is viewed by others as risk spreading investment diversification. Appears like a sound economic decision with an appreciating currency

Any large economy's monetary policy changes impact other markets. Just look at the ridiculous situation where the world seems to be hanging on the FED potentially raising interest rates by 0.25%, a quarter of 1%. Just completely stupid. It won't make or break the economics of investing in equities v's bonds

The world seems paranoid, just like Y2K, global warming, peak oil etc. The common element in all this is the media, who seem to thrive on bad news.......

[skid]

Chinas playing the intervention game--So that makes their economy ok?--Early days--its volatility ,one way or the other.

Im sure Major would like an apology because the environment is ticktey boo as well

[Bobcat.]

Does anyone else sense that there's just a little too much sigh of relief in the market psyche today? We're kidding ourselves if we think that a Chinese trade surplus and overnight bounce in Equity markets mean that all is now well and rosy. Nobody likes to be afraid and I think we're witnessing a clutching at straws verging on denial.

Let's see how the week ends.

[arc]

Interesting article: The "sudden" devaluation of the Chinese renminbi last month, was not so sudden from their perspective.

#Back in March 2014, we first revealed something quite stunning: a new, seemingly ravenous, and completely unexpected buyer of US Treasurys had emerged in the face of "Belgium" which was buying tens of billions in US paper at a weekly clip, without any explanation.

One year later, this website first confirmed that the identity of the "Belgian" buyer was none other than China, which had been using Belgian-based clearer Euroclear as an offshore venue for its bond purchases, and which starting in March 2015 had commenced dumping the US paper it accumulated so dramatically in 2013 and 2014, in advance of what has become the biggest story of the summer: China's liquidation of its FX reserves, read US Treasury holdings, in defense of its devaluing currency.#

Full article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-08/mystery-buyer-us-treasurys-revealed

[Daytr]

Tend to agree BC, but we don't know what 'deals' were done if any to support markets at the G20.
That was the first chance they have had since the recent chaos to get together.
Since that markets have bounced.
Could be just a relief rally, holiday rally etc.
Most markets I look at have formed quite distinct resistance areas and flag formations and are right up against resistance.
Good levels to short, unless resistance is broken of course...



Does anyone else sense that there's just a little too much sigh of relief in the market psyche today? We're kidding ourselves if we think that a Chinese trade surplus and overnight bounce in Equity markets mean that all is now well and rosy. Nobody likes to be afraid and I think we're witnessing a clutching at straws verging on denial.

Let's see how the week ends.

[NZSilver]

Can someone explains the article arc posted that a novice like myself could understand? Cheers

[Nasi Goreng]

For some of you that are shorting indexes or individual stocks, where are you putting your stops?

It doesn't look like it's currently much cause for concern but I imagine a 2-3% rally on the Dow tomorrow followed by another up day may make some holding shorts nervous.

I remember the 2008 market being very whipsaw with lots of relief rallies followed by big falls, not saying it is the same now but bear markets tend to behave very violently.

[Daytr]

I've stopped myself out already.
Too much volatility for my liking.
Short oil & Kiwi though, so will sit with those.

[ratkin]

I remember the 2008 market being very whipsaw with lots of relief rallies followed by big falls, not saying it is the same now but bear markets tend to behave very violently.

Who said its a bear market? Might just be a bull, climbing that wall of worry.

[couta1]

Depends which country you are talking about. Canada is in recession - so their's is likely a bear market. Australia is heading towards entering a recession - so theirs is to. US - may escape recession, so might just be a correction. China - full on bubble burst, so a bear. NZ - will be interesting to see, will depend on whether the dairy industry takes the whole country into a recession or not (personally, I dont think it will, but what would I know?).

My comments are always to be interpreted as referring to the ASX as that is where I invest, I'm only here in the NZX threads because I'm bored :D Time to get another day job or can I suggest adult pen and ink books which are now taking the world by storm ( Very good for stopping dementia) PS- My wife brought me home one the other day and a nice set of pencils and I reckon I'll have it finished by the time my portfolio gets back to zero.

[ratkin]

Depends which country you are talking about. Canada is in recession - so their's is likely a bear market. Australia is heading towards entering a recession - so theirs is to. US - may escape recession, so might just be a correction. China - full on bubble burst, so a bear. NZ - will be interesting to see, will depend on whether the dairy industry takes the whole country into a recession or not (personally, I dont think it will, but what would I know?).

My comments are always to be interpreted as referring to the ASX as that is where I invest, I'm only here in the NZX threads because I'm bored :D

The Australian market would have to fall to 4800 for a bear market to occur. So far we have had nothing more than a bull market correction. Bears and recessions are a bit like thee chicken and egg, either can cause the other. However just because a country falls into a recession does not necessarily mean there will be a bear market

[Daytr]

It got a bit closer overnight.
Should've held my nerve on shorts.
Lesson learnt, patience on entry points, discipline on exit. Doh!
Kiwi higher I see.

[bull....]

failed attempt to break out of the symmetrical triangle hit resistance at 1990 s&p and reversed back into triangle - still in play ( can go either way)

[Daytr]

Yep agree Bull, but pretty strong rejection of resistance levels in the end.
I see job vacancies jumped by half a million in the US! Half a million! From 5.2M to 5.7M (!) vacancies.
I think that includes part time vacancies as well.
This is the sort of thing the Fed will be watching closely as employers can't attract workers its likely wages will have to rise, which is inflationary.
So in our upside down world this was seen as a negative as we are likely to see higher interest rates.
China says they will accelerate infrastructure projects to reinvigorate growth.
Which you would think will support commodity prices, particularly metals & perhaps the ailing Australian mining sector.

[Nasi Goreng]

The Australian market would have to fall to 4800 for a bear market to occur. So far we have had nothing more than a bull market correction. Bears and recessions are a bit like thee chicken and egg, either can cause the other. However just because a country falls into a recession does not necessarily mean there will be a bear market

If you follow the strict interpretation, you are right. If you look at the leaders on the ASX, they are already well into bear territory. I had a look at ASX20 a couple of days ago and compared current prices against 12 month highs. All 20 were in correction, 16 of the 20 had pullbacks of over 15% and 11 of the 20 were over 25% off 12 month highs.

Call it whatever you like, but I call it pretty ugly.

[arc]

KW, May I ask why you "prefer" the Aussie mkt. Types of industries? or relative sizes of the companies involved?

I was into Aussie mining for a while a few years ago but it all went pear shaped. I still keep a close eye on it ( my son works in the industry doing engineering ) there will be a rally at some point and I expect it will be "sudden", either your in at the bottom or your left behind... It all depends on world conditions.

[Beagle]

Depends which country you are talking about. Canada is in recession - so their's is likely a bear market. Australia is heading towards entering a recession - so theirs is to. US - may escape recession, so might just be a correction. China - full on bubble burst, so a bear. NZ - will be interesting to see, will depend on whether the dairy industry takes the whole country into a recession or not (personally, I dont think it will, but what would I know?).

My comments are always to be interpreted as referring to the ASX as that is where I invest, I'm only here in the NZX threads because I'm bored :D

You need the new V8 Mustang that's coming...lots of KW's and you'd never be bored...sorry, couldn't resist :D
Anyway...another death cross formed on U.S. Markets and it looks like its a doozy http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/09/another-death-cross-forms-and-its-a-doozy.html

[Daytr]

Arc, those in the mining sector that have retained an Aussie exposure are doing quite well.
Its the companies that foolishly nullified the Aussie factor by having USD debt are in trouble.
So its a mixed bag. The banks that advised these firms on this debt structure with no hedging etc should be sacked.

[arc]

Daytr; I must be looking under the wrong rocks,
ASL MAH MLD PAK SWK NWH... all down hill for the last few years. Do you have a different angle on it.?

Im waiting for someone "adventurous/brave enough" to create a deep water robotic rig to mine the Rare Earth Minerals laying on the sea floor around volcanic areas. Apparently the area around the Kermadec trench is quite rich in mineral content...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9951299/Japan-breaks-Chinas-stranglehold-on-rare-metals-with-sea-mud-bonanza.html

http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/5238554/Metal-riches-found-in-seabed-mud-of-Pacific


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2093003-what-happened-to-neptune-minerals-walls-appear-to-be-closing-in

[Daytr]

I must admit I don't know any of those stocks & I spent 15 year in mine finance in Australia.
So yes I would suggest wrong rocks.
Like JB Murc, I like some of the Aussie gold miners as their margins have increased dramatically with a lower Aussie.
They aren't as cheap as they were, but some still lk quite appealing.

[Crackity]

Im waiting for someone "adventourous/brave enough" to create a deep water robotic rig to mine the Rare Earth Minerals laying on the sea floor around volcanic areas. Apparently the area around the Kermadec trench is quite rich in mineral content...



This sounds like a job for CRP.....

[Hoop]

Who said its a bear market? Might just be a bull, climbing that wall of worry.

The Wall of Worry period happens during the uptrend in Stage 1 of the new Bull cycle when investors still doubt that the Equity market has recovered as the economy is still poor. Ratkin you knew that because it's novice stuff....and....you also know that the bull is well past its average life expectancy so at this moment in time the bull certainly wouldn't be worrying about being killed off in the prime of its life...

But, just in case ...the chart below shows the lag between the Equity cycle and the economic cycle... the "wall of worry" is where the 8 4 5 and 7 are.. this is the period when some investors still worry whether the economic cycle has bottomed out or not...

Don't fret too much about the Market sectors being out of whack on the chart...the extra heavy handed QE has stuffed up theory..

http://www.algotrades.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Market-Cycle-Sectors.jpg

[Hoop]

nice bounce of the support, I have a symmetrical triangle in play and we sit right at the top at the time of writing - if it breaks to upside the bull may be still alive an kicking.
poor people who panicked or who are in cash may have missed the buy of the year - time will tell even asx looked like a bottom yesterday?

Bull....

Tomi Kigore opinion on todays Marketwatch ....Dow’s bearish ‘symmetrical triangle’ remains in force (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dows-bearish-symmetrical-triangle-remains-in-force-2015-09-09)

[bull....]

Bull....

Tomi Kigore opinion on todays Marketwatch ....Dow’s bearish ‘symmetrical triangle’ remains in force (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dows-bearish-symmetrical-triangle-remains-in-force-2015-09-09)

that's what im watching it is apparent on the S&P as well

- his target price seems wrong though as looks like he did the measurement wrong, point to point of the triangle gives me roughly 900pts target is the flash low on 24/8/15 ironic isn't it also a possible channel developing as well 16650 - 16050 which if breaks down targets almost the flash lows as well, also ironically fib 23.6 of the top is 15400 - 15500 around all those targets as well.

best policy is to see which way it breaks and then act up or down don't you think?

[Snow Leopard]

...Don't fret too much about the Market sectors being out of whack on the chart...the extra heavy handed QE has stuffed up theory..

Do you mean: "This time IT IS different" ? :)


At any given point in time you can probably define the probabilities of the current market being in every likely 'market 'state' and the probabilities of all the possible near future 'market states' (except for the ones with the black swans in them, damn those birds :mad ;: ).

And when sufficient time has lapsed you can, with the benefit of hindsight, correctly define past 'market states'.

But the name of game is long term survival and maybe even profiting from the sequence of events as they unfurl around you.


May you strategy be successful.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: definitely deep and meaningful :t_up:

[arc]

With last nights TV news announcement of a potential recession and Elnino this summer.. whats your thoughts on the potential impacts on the market.

Do you think the decreased/decreasing interest rates will be positive or negative aspect for stocks.

[Hoop]

Do you mean: "This time IT IS different" ? :)


At any given point in time you can probably define the probabilities of the current market being in every likely 'market 'state' and the probabilities of all the possible near future 'market states' (except for the ones with the black swans in them, damn those birds :mad ;: ).

And when sufficient time has lapsed you can, with the benefit of hindsight, correctly define past 'market states'.

But the name of game is long term survival and maybe even profiting from the sequence of events as they unfurl around you.


May you strategy be successful.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: definitely deep and meaningful :t_up:

Hi PT ..welcome back
Yeah ...so many ways this global world could turn at the moment..We are blessed with a mass of free valuable data(and tabloid junk) these days with an exception of NZ data (..I'm pissed off about this and if I bitch long enough ..the penny might drop that allowing up to date NZ data to be freely transmitted, it may encourage many more people to invest in the market place rather than it being sucked up into uneconomic investment areas such as property...

...but I'm digressing..back to the point.....and with all that data we can become educated and begin to assess the probabilities of each "happening" ourselves and freely debate it on forums such as ST.....

QE stuffing up theory...this time is different? ..nah Theory and Practice sometimes disagree and often do when a giant individual or a market sector supply/demand gets disrupted creating an imbalance somewhere within the entire networked system of things...The system is self correcting (sometimes to our disliking)..It can be fiddled with to be moderated but cycle theory says the big wheel can be sped up. slowed down or stopped but it can never reverse...therefore PT This time is never different...just different players...

Speaking about disruption..watch Brazil..it's economy has nosedived S&P has downgraded it financial instruments back to junk status last revisited in 2008 GFC..
Couta's Sheeples have been pleading for USA to do something about their rising US$ which they see as having a bad economic effect on emerging countries as most hold US$ nominated debt and setting off waves of devaluing currencies..Of Course everyone says US$ is only one factor....There's hope that Commodity prices have bottomed out (for now) and with the countering emerging country's currency devaluation used as a buffer to the low commodity prices + internal domestic economy restructure there is hope of an economic turnabout back to increasing GDP growth.. however Brazil could become a causality..and risk a ripple effect as it is the 8th largest world economy The BRIC countries are the largest emerging countries...

(Aust..NZ.. Canada are not classed as an emerging country but are reliant on commodity markets)

[ratkin]

Hi PT ..welcome back
Yeah ...so many ways this global world could turn at the moment..We are blessed with a mass of free valuable data(and tabloid junk) these days with an exception of NZ data (..I'm pissed off about this and if I bitch long enough ..the penny might drop that allowing up to date NZ data to be freely transmitted, it may encourage many more people to invest in the market place rather than it being sucked up into uneconomic investment areas such as property...



Do you not use ami Quote? Can download all the free data you need. Can download it in metastock or amibroker format, the NZ data isnt live, buf for EOD data its quite adequate and is free

[elZorro]

Meanwhile, my indicator share has dropped 52% from where it was 1 year ago, it's lower than it has been for nearly six years, but it still looks quite healthy compared to its level in 2008 during the GFC. Back then, it dropped to 15% of its high, and it started dropping just after early August 2007, the start of the GFC.

[janner]

Meanwhile, my indicator share has dropped 52% from where it was 1 year ago, it's lower than it has been for nearly six years, but it still looks quite healthy compared to its level in 2008 during the GFC. Back then, it dropped to 15% of its high, and it started dropping just after early August 2007, the start of the GFC.

So what are you saying.. ???

You are happy with the way things are going ???

[elZorro]

So what are you saying.. ???

You are happy with the way things are going ???

Let's say I'm in two minds, Janner. This share still crashed earlier in 2007-2008, despite the fact that they never lost money. They just sacked people and reduced stock until things came right.

After the GFC I told myself to keep looking at this share, because it rebounded about 8 fold or more (not that I had cash left to invest). Now it's on the way back down. If this share continues to drop at the rate it is, I won't be listening to any feel-good stories out there. And when this share finally holds a level and starts to rise again, I'll be expecting plenty of other things to come right as well.

[Onion]

a forecast by Citigroup that the world faced a 55 per cent chance of a global recession sparked by a slump in economic growth in China

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-11/goldman-sachs-warns-of-recesssion/6769186?section=business

[skid]

Well,Im betting the Fed will chicken out and postpone the interest rate increase--but trying to understand what is going on behind the scenes in China (and the whole Chinese Psyche is a different story altogether) How they will act in spite of what the Gov does is anyones guess--add to that Brazil and the other emerging countries and there are still many ways the wheels can fall off....Vs..some may miss some good buys---you be the judge--Is this the time for the gamble?

[couta1]

Well,Im betting the Fed will chicken out and postpone the interest rate increase--but trying to understand what is going on behind the scenes in China (and the whole Chinese Psyche is a different story altogether) How they will act in spite of what the Gov does is anyones guess--add to that Brazil and the other emerging countries and there are still many ways the wheels can fall off....Vs..some may miss some good buys---you be the judge--Is this the time for the gamble?
Come on skid, get some balls and get amongst it, the sun will still rise tomorrow even if its obscured by cloud. PS- Skiing for the week so more worried about high speed crashes than share market ones, have a nice day.

[Daytr]

Yeah you might be right Skid, although as rate rises take quite some time to filter through the economy they may go now.
The biggest area of concern besides what's going on in markets is the participation rate & with a big leap in job vacancies there is quite a good chance of increases in labour costs, something the Fed will be watching for closely.

[elZorro]

I still get these Equedia links, this one's quite interesting, and as I know there's a strong link between the gold price in US$ and the amount of US Treasuries held by foreigners, it rings true. Other interesting ideas here about how the equities market is going to fund the US bond market as China pulls out its cash, already happening.


http://www.equedia.com/great-us-debt-rotation/?utm_source=September+13%2C+2015&utm_campaign=September+13%2C+2015&utm_medium=email

[BlackPeter]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-11/goldman-sachs-warns-of-recesssion/6769186?section=business

Oh dear ... a 1 in 3 chance of a 2016 recession in Australia - actually, in my view quite optimistic given the current shape of the mining sector (but maybe they assume resources going up again) - and a 55% chance of a global recession.

So what? A recession is per definition two (or more) quarters of negative growth. These things happen - nothing can go up without end and it might be even a healthy consolidation. As well no recession so far (not even the great recession 2007-2009 or the great depression in 1929) was the end of the world - and nothing indicates to anything like these two returning anyway. Relax and enjoy the ride ...

[Hoop]

Well,Im betting the Fed will chicken out and postpone the interest rate increase--but trying to understand what is going on behind the scenes in China (and the whole Chinese Psyche is a different story altogether) How they will act in spite of what the Gov does is any ones guess--add to that Brazil and the other emerging countries and there are still many ways the wheels can fall off....Vs..some may miss some good buys---you be the judge--Is this the time for the gamble?

The inflation (or is it deflation) data (http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/sharedcontent/InsertableContent.htm#Usage) (+0.17%) would not signify a FED rate increase either .... However there is some non-disciplined ground swell debating going on which make some sort of sense... They say you need to increase rates during economic good times because when the economy comes off the boil ...you will need that monetary tool to able to cut rates...
It would be interesting to see what the computer model is telling the FED..


I still get these Equedia links, this one's quite interesting, and as I know there's a strong link between the gold price in US$ and the amount of US Treasuries held by foreigners, it rings true. Other interesting ideas here about how the equities market is going to fund the US bond market as China pulls out its cash, already happening.


http://www.equedia.com/great-us-debt-rotation/?utm_source=September+13%2C+2015&utm_campaign=September+13%2C+2015&utm_medium=email

As I have written so often in my posts...The correlation between the equity market and the state of the economy is poor......The equity market (as are all markets) rely on "available" money..when the available money shrinks, the market momentum drops and supply and demand shifts resulting in price downtrend...Usually, but not always, the success of the bull market itself kills the bull (investors "all in" and haven't the extra money to sustain the buying momentum)...

ELZ, did you go to that Annual NZ shareholder meeting held in Hamilton?..I didn't.. but gee wizz the Waikato Times article mentioning what the guest speaker, Economist Shamubeel Eaqub (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/71993989/china-slowdown-big-worry-for-dairy--shamubeel-eaqub) had to say about Fonterra and the Dairy Industry makes for dismal reading...eh?

[Beagle]

Very grim reading. Thanks for the link Hoop. Fascinating that Fonterra's director Mr Monaghan has such a diametrically opposite view of this situation that the well respected economist Mr Eaqub and fund manager Mr Glass...remind me again which of these three gentleman has a vested interest to paddle their own canoe ? Who to believe ? Pretty easy question I would have thought.

[skid]

Come on skid, get some balls and get amongst it, the sun will still rise tomorrow even if its obscured by cloud. PS- Skiing for the week so more worried about high speed crashes than share market ones, have a nice day.

Im always amused at how you guys equate market downturns and the logic of protecting your capital with the end of the world--my balls are quite intact ,thanks.
im just finishing a 3 month trip in Southeast Asia with the dosh I saved by having a strategy--the suns been coming up here (pretty hot though)and of course it will continue.
Is having balls a good enough reason to do something economically stupid?
This whole thing may blow over--(in which case the smart money will most likely get back in)
But I wonder how many are following your strategy(or lack of)

On an entirely different note your job would be in real danger over here--They take care of their old people--we could certainly learn a few things from them about families and communities--but those are outside the global economic debate so best left to another discussion--(which may happen)

[Beagle]

Our friend does a LOT of skiing in Queenstown. One could speculate his job security and remuneration level can't be too shabby :)

[Crackity]

Im always amused at how you guys equate market downturns and the logic of protecting your capital with the end of the world--my balls are quite intact ,thanks.
im just finishing a 3 month trip in Southeast Asia with the dosh I saved by having a strategy--the suns been coming up here (pretty hot though)and of course it will continue.
Is having balls a good enough reason to do something economically stupid?
)

the answer to that is quite possibly!

But it turns out that having one of these typical characteristics is a drawback when investing. That's being male. The proof is in that women who trade or invest in the sharemarket do it better then men.

Female share investors on average out-perform males by 1 per cent a year, according to a research report, Investing Like a Woman, by Steve Macdonald, co-founder and investment director at Infinitas Asset Management.
That might not sound much, but think of it this way: it's the equivalent of never paying any fees on super or a managed fund. So over time the difference can run into tens of thousands of dollars, depending on how much was invested in the first place.
An article in the Quarterly Journal of Economics suggests it's more like 2 per cent a year, which is the recorded outperformance of those who seek professional advice, as women are far more prone to.

[BlackPeter]

So, the answer to the worlds economic problems is war!


And I remember someone posting about the 'Shemittal' a while back...........

http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/562077/jewish/What-Is-Shemittah.htm

And loan forgiveness.................

http://www.chabad.org/parshah/article_cdo/aid/556968/jewish/Loan-Amnesty.htm


Be careful out there people... Yom Kippur is 23rd September. The end is nigh!! :D :D :t_up:

Hi greater fool,

just wondering - wouldn't there be a case for inventing a new doomsday scenario? Both of your links refer to the Shemittah (which ended 13. September 2015), which means we just passed it.

Yom Kippur is already the 10th day of the new year - nothing terrible is supposed to happen on that day (unless, of course Israel decides to surprise its enemies and start a new war on one of its holiest days (as they did before), but this obviously could only be good for oil prices ;).

Just checking wikipedia: actually there is still another doomsday predicted for 27/28 September 2015 - the 4th blood moon in a year, and if this does not work, than fear the 7th of October: "Chris McCann and the eBible Fellowship group predict the possible destruction of the universe on this date, which is 1600 days after Harold Camping's date of 2011 May 21".

Obviously - if this does not work either (happy to put some money on that), than we might need to wait until 2020 when Jeane Dixon claimed "that Armageddon would take place and Jesus will return to defeat the unholy Trinity of the Antichrist, Satan and the False prophet between 2020 and 2037" Must be a sad year, we unfortunately have no exact starting date. However - Dixon previously predicted the world would end on February 4, 1962, i.e. she was wrong before, but maybe she learned ...?

[skid]

Its a crazy world---every time they get some disappointing economic results ,the share market rises because investors think there is then a less chance of the fed increasing interest rates!

[banter]

Death cross on the NZ50 today.

Also currently:
- 4.9% off its 2015 high
- up 1.8% for the year
- up 1.1% from 'Black Monday'
- up 2.2% from the year-to-date low of 4/9/15.

The S&P 500 is looking interesting. A flag is forming (http://invst.ly/2vrk).
It's tested 2,000 twice and failed, and looks to be having a third go now.
The 61% fib retracement of the 'black Monday' move happens to be 2,000 too.

The price range is getting compressed and a breakout looks due in the next few days.
My guess is down.

[Crackity]

The S&P 500 is looking interesting. A flag is forming (http://invst.ly/2vrk).
It's tested 2,000 twice and failed, and looks to be having a third go now.
The 61% fib retracement of the 'black Monday' move happens to be 2,000 too.

The price range is getting compressed and a breakout looks due in the next few days.
My guess is down.

Welcome back to the forum! How about the extreme volatility in the oil spot markets as well - those huge sentiment and price swings interest me. Best wishes.

[BlackPeter]

Death cross on the NZ50 today.

Also currently:
- 4.9% off its 2015 high
- up 1.8% for the year
- up 1.1% from 'Black Monday'
- up 2.2% from the year-to-date low of 4/9/15.

The S&P 500 is looking interesting. A flag is forming (http://invst.ly/2vrk).
It's tested 2,000 twice and failed, and looks to be having a third go now.
The 61% fib retracement of the 'black Monday' move happens to be 2,000 too.

The price range is getting compressed and a breakout looks due in the next few days.
My guess is down.

Wow - gold up over night, oil up and Brent crude futures up around 2% across the board ...

So - two squiggly lines happened to meet yesterday. What does it mean? Well, the average value of the NZX 50 was the same for the last 50 days than for the last 200 days. Not more, not less. This event is clearly describing the jitter we had in the recent past after a nice long rise, nothing more.

This event only has meaning for the future if people turn it from a lagging indicator of the past into a prediction of the future. Sure - if we all start to worry and sell now our shares than the NZX will drop. If we look into the fundamentals and buy, it will rise. Easy.

So I guess - the only question is, will the doomsday preachers gain a victory by talking us all into a recession? I don't know the answer .. and sure - fear is a strong motivator, but I still don't see the fundamentals for a longer downturn.

Sure - there are as always better companies and worse companies, but as long as the income from shares is better than the income from fixed interest investments can't I see any fundamental reason for the NZX to fall through the floor. Actually - most NZ companies will enjoy over the coming years a better income than previously - courtesy to a lower dollar, and foreign investors will discover that our shares are a steal (courtesy to a falling dollar) if you pay in US$ or other foreign currency.

Lets all run for the hills, sell our shares and let the Americans. British, Australians and maybe even some Asians pick them up for a song. Then we have afterwards the opportunity to lament on this forum about all the bad foreigners who bought our country for a song while we were sitting in
the hills.

Discl: holding some cash (~10%), but mainly invested ... in companies with a reasonable PE, exposure to export and making stuff people need.
DYOR.

[skid]

You think the doomsday preachers CREATE the recession....interesting

[xafalcon]

You think the doomsday preachers CREATE the recession....interesting

I believe more than half the time they do.

The doomsday preachers seem to congregate in media occupations and feed off each others negative energy.

When this is fed to the public day after day, the doomsday preachers opinions are taken as fact.

[skid]

Yeah you might be right Skid, although as rate rises take quite some time to filter through the economy they may go now.
The biggest area of concern besides what's going on in markets is the participation rate & with a big leap in job vacancies there is quite a good chance of increases in labour costs, something the Fed will be watching for closely.

Its not so much the tiny rate rise,its the reaction to it that seems to be where the craziness starts(China has been dropping like a stone and all investors can think about is whether the fed lady will sing----It would be interesting to know where those job vacancies are--are they in real jobs where people can demand higher wages or the growing ''Walmart'' style exploitation type where employees are fighting an uphill battle to achieve even the ability to have a good yarn with their workmates ,let alone an organized push for wage increases.

[NZSilver]

It's never steady state more continuous economic cycles, however China seems to think it can fight the cycle. It's been several years of printed money and low interest rates, surely the perfect for decent economic growth and inflation... Instead it's been very marginal growth and inflation near zero. Doesn't make sense to me, but the flow of printed $$ has gone to the market in terms of profits for companies and people buying shares, also to housing markets around the world. The flow of that printed money has stopped and cash is going to start to become more attractive as interest rates increase, will money flow back from markets and property? Meanwhile China is struggling to fake it anymore and is loosing control, meaning that beast who's supported economise such as NZ/Aus won't buy as much. But then there is India, Indonesia, Mexico - massive economies which are growing. And the U.S. Seems to be growing but all that printed money and it's not growing by much. Hopefully some cheap stocks are around the corner, I have plenty of cash. But markets seem to be bouncing at the moment, maybe it's going to keep heading up. Who knows, but interesting times!

[skid]

So with all those real problems -printed money -Chinas growth problems-emerging countries up against it.....to think the media is the only culprit is just not realistic in terms of underlying problems --maybe short term fluctuations--but the chickens will eventually come home to roost.
Just the simple fact that alot of money has been injected into the system that had to go somewhere and its starting to taper off now with the QEs over--next step is another place to put what is left if interest rates rise--There are alot of baby boomers out there who should be protecting their retirement money--up until now there has been nowhere to put it to get any kind of return--hopefully for them ,that will change and they can get a bit of interest and not have to gamble with their nest egg (or let the pension funds do it for them) but it will not be good for the (what most think)is the overvalued market.

We dont know if the fed will ''man up''(sorry Janet)and do it now or postpone it awhile longer but it will happen and I believe there will be far less stocks that will qualify as decent ''buy and hold'' until the readjustment has really occurred.

[BlackPeter]

You think the doomsday preachers CREATE the recession....interesting

I guess it depends on the circumstances, however ... the word is undoubtedly a very powerful tool (probably the most powerful).

Lets face it - the market is as much about human moods, fear and greed as it is about fundamentals. Doomsday preachers try to manipulate the "human" components to the market (and sometimes they succeed). Problem is - if enough people feel bad about the situation (and sell shares, stop buying the next car, delay their holidays, ....), than this actually will create the respective fundamentals.

Obviously - the same is true for if people talk the markets into bubbles ... manipulation works both ways.

[BlackPeter]

Just another observation on this frightening "cross of death" on the NZX50 yesterday. Have a look the the NZX50 trend over the last 12 or so years:

7608

Now - I guess the scale is a bit compressed - but I can count on this graph 7 occasions where the MA50 was coming down onto the MA200 and either crossing or just touching it (as it did yesterday). Only in one out of these 7 occasions had the sharemarket afterwards a significant slump (in 2008). So - how good is this indicator really?

[skid]

I think chartists just keep an eye to see if it bounces --If it goes below most give it just a bit more to confirm its not a ''fake out''---of course it doesnt work all the time,but i think most have found that if they exit when this happens they come out far ahead on average--(of course it makes no difference if its just media hype--the money is still lost if they just sit an watch.)--we probably will know more as the week progresses ,with the fed and all.(Globalization is a weird animal)

The experts could probably elaborate far more

[Hoop]

Just another observation on this frightening "cross of death" on the NZX50 yesterday. Have a look the the NZX50 trend over the last 12 or so years:

7608

Now - I guess the scale is a bit compressed - but I can count on this graph 7 occasions where the MA50 was coming down onto the MA200 and either crossing or just touching it (as it did yesterday). Only in one out of these 7 occasions had the sharemarket afterwards a significant slump (in 2008). So - how good is this indicator really?

Death cross (MA50 crosses MA200) is abused by the media hype....the name is often more fearsome than its actions and the media loves that ..The opponents to TA also love this indicator as it often "cries wolf"and adds fuel to TA being nothing more than meaningless squiggly lines......... Yes it is true that during all crashes a death cross will occur..but they can also occur during Bull market corrections, a pause (plateau) in an uptrend, at a cyclic top, after a cyclic bottom at the beginning of stalled cyclic bull...to name a few places...sometimes a death cross is quickly followed by a golden cross which makes a mockery of both indicators to many.. and I have even seen alternating DC and GC series...

As an investor..it's prudent not to totally disregard a DC ..A DC is sometimes a result a strong downward event and questions should be asked as to what caused the strong downward event

DC's add to their dodgy reputations when they occur during fundamentally OK or good economic times and FAers quickly dismiss them outright......the TAist's and Chartists won't entirely dismiss it and will be beavering behind the scenes using other indicators to see if the DC can be confirmed as technically dangerous or not..

[BlackPeter]

Touching it doesnt count. Its supposed to act as support (ie. the point where the price bounces off and heads higher) - its a break below it that is the worry. So 3 times in 12 years is more accurate - so once in every 4 years or so you should be looking at locking in profits, protecting your capital and accumulating cash. Cant see a problem with that as an investment strategy.

Hi KW - I was responding to a post from banter ... and he called the current touching of the lines a death cross. I compared the current touching with the previous ones. We only will know in some days, whether it is this time a cross. I think however it is likely it will cross this time (unless the NZX is very positive the next couple of days), however it might very soon come back as the golden variant.

Anyway - I absolutely agree with you that it is always a good idea to be prudent - I review my investments more often than once every 4 years ... and sell what I consider as unproductive on a risk vs potential rewards scale. Sure - if this touch (or cross) of death reminds people to review their portfolios and to be careful, than it certainly is a good thing. Just don't like the hype around it.

[skid]

Yep,it certainly sounds like something off an Ozzie Ozborne album.--I think this week is particularly tricky with all the hype around the Fed and interest rates--If they decide to raise,I would not be surprised to see a cross--but will the market get used to it(and finally accept it) and move on? stay tuned..(and I guess most have realized that what happens over there affects our markets. Also..its a bit rough for us commodity based markets atm like NZ..and dont get me started on the poor OZ market...(at least milk products are edible:)

[Hoop]

Hi KW - I was responding to a post from banter ... and he called the current touching of the lines a death cross. I compared the current touching with the previous ones. We only will know in some days, whether it is this time a cross. I think however it is likely it will cross this time (unless the NZX is very positive the next couple of days), however it might very soon come back as the golden variant.

Anyway - I absolutely agree with you that it is always a good idea to be prudent - I review my investments more often than once every 4 years ... and sell what I consider as unproductive on a risk vs potential rewards scale. Sure - if this touch (or cross) of death reminds people to review their portfolios and to be careful, than it certainly is a good thing. Just don't like the hype around it.

Oh..one other thing BlackPeter....
Remember the DC is a product of two lagging indicators one lagging longer than the other.....so the first down wave event has already happened

During a bull market correction if a DC finally arrives it is usually near the commencement of the next rally to higher highs.

How do we know if the NZX50 is experiencing another bull market correction?...At the moment we don't know...Some overseas stockmarkets are experiencing a cyclic reversal to Bear market conditions so we have to be vigilant as NZ normally behaves similar to global markets..so I would not be surprised if NZX50 turns bear...that would mean the DC is dangerous this time...

The key actions with the NZX50 to watch to confirm a cyclic reversal to bear are:
1..After a drop a failure to rally above resistance levels such as 5700 or 5760
2..as with 1.. a lower high ...and then a lower low...A shape like steps going down
3..lower volume on rallies, higher volume on drops.....the reverse of a bull market cycle that sees high volume rallies
4..Good news failing to excite the overall Index upwards to any great degree...
5..Individual pockets of bullish activity....when 4 or 5 stocks look good at the expense of other stocks...then next week it's reversed and those previous bullish stocks go down with profit taking money going to a few other stocks that performed poorly the previous week..
6..Continuing shareholder feeling of Market or stock disappointments.
7..The MA200 trend turns and creates a persistent downward trend

[Nasi Goreng]

Well I think the fed may hike tomorrow so I haven't bought as much as I had planned over the last few weeks - the stocks I'm interested in are still quite expensive. If I'm wrong, we could be in for a bit of a rally. If I'm right, I think a bit more of a pullback which may take the NZX down a little.

The NZX has been surprisingly resilient. It seems risk off in some areas and risk on when it comes to very steady businesses or high dividend stocks.

[Leftfield]

Well I think the fed may hike tomorrow so I haven't bought as much as I had planned over the last few weeks - the stocks I'm interested in are still quite expensive. If I'm wrong, we could be in for a bit of a rally. If I'm right, I think a bit more of a pullback which may take the NZX down a little.

The NZX has been surprisingly resilient. It seems risk off in some areas and risk on when it comes to very steady businesses or high dividend stocks.

Thanks Nasi Goring your post echo's my thoughts….. (Disc 50% of funds invested. Overall pretty happy that my portfolio is weathering the storm….. well so far!)

[Daytr]

Market only has a hike priced at about 25% chance last I saw.
If they do raise the statement post will be very accommodating in my view.

[Baa_Baa]

Market only has a hike priced at about 25% chance last I saw.
If they do raise the statement post will be very accommodating in my view.

Dow futures slightly off the pace so far ... simply looks like uncertainty, a guessing game. NZX is sure to follow whichever way it goes.

[Hoop]

Should know the FED decision by 6.00am tomorrow morning (NZTime)

[bull....]

no rate rise - cool world economy bad? oh well still cheap money a

who brought the triangle breakout a couple days back sweet gains

[winner69]

no rate rise - cool world economy bad? oh well still cheap money a

who brought the triangle breakout a couple days back sweet gains

Janet was never going to raise rates this year ....they need the money go round to keep going round until the elections

[Daytr]

Yeah but what has changed?
The market already expected no rise, economy looking worse.
Debt crisis a real possibility.
Once markets calm we return to the down trend.
Or perhaps I'm talking my book, as used the spike to get short the DOW & Kiwi. ;-)

[elZorro]

Yeah but what has changed?
The market already expected no rise, economy looking worse.
Debt crisis a real possibility.
Once markets calm we return to the down trend.
Or perhaps I'm talking my book, as used the spike to get short the DOW & Kiwi. ;-)

I noticed the gold price is on a tear upwards, by over $20 up to $1133 so far. US$ down a bit.

[Daytr]

But also got long the Chinese market on yesterday's sell off so, hopefully that will open much higher.
The biggest beneficiaries of the US not raising rates is probably emerging economies.
Perhaps China doesn't quite qualify but it should be a positive I would have thought.
More bullish Chinese markets than I am the US.

[BlackPeter]

But also got long the Chinese market on yesterday's sell off so, hopefully that will open much higher.
The biggest beneficiaries of the US not raising rates is probably emerging economies.
Perhaps China doesn't quite qualify but it should be a positive I would have thought.
More bullish Chinese markets than I am the US.

Hi Daytr, just out of interest ... what broker or financial instrument do you use to go long on the Chinese market? Are you going through funds exposed to China or are you investing directly in Chinese stocks?

[BlackPeter]

Just going through my watchlist - and haven't seen in it that many emerging uptrends in a while. Maybe time to change the name of this thread from Black Monday to Golden Friday? Looks tempting to go invested (well, I am already - mostly ...)?

However ... as always: invest safely;)

[Daytr]

I shorted that spike to EZ. ;-)
The thing is with the Fed delaying it just means its hanging over the market for longer.
They should have moved today & got it out of the way.


I noticed the gold price is on a tear upwards, by over $20 up to $1133 so far. US$ down a bit.

[Daytr]

Maybe, but the DOW spiked & then gave back all the gains to close down negative.
Now its out of the way for at least a month or so I think we resume the downtrend in equities, well US equities anyway.
China seems to be supportive of the their market.

I trade the China50 index BP via a CFD through CMC Global markets.
Very small positions as the spreads are wide & volatility huge.


Just going through my watchlist - and haven't seen in it that many emerging uptrends in a while. Maybe time to change the name of this thread from Black Monday to Golden Friday? Looks tempting to go invested (well, I am already - mostly ...)?

However ... as always: invest safely;)

[Daytr]

From one of the commentaries I receive.

"September is the only month in which US share prices have more often fallen than risen."

[Hoop]

We have not had the traditional sucker rally yet. No levels of resistance have been tested yet. We are in a pause phase. The trend is still weighted to the downside. However, some shares are still performing strongly, some look like they want to move up, and if/when we do have a sucker rally they should do quite well while it lasts. But bear in mind that it is likely only a temporary phenomenon, and a bear market will eventually grind everything lower. So if you are buying now, make sure you have a strict selling strategy, so you don't compound your losses. A sucker rally has been known to recover almost all of the market losses before collapsing and setting new lows.

So its back to watching the Chinese economy - China really is running the show, even the Fed is being held captive to its whims.

Pun................nice:D

[Lewylewylewy]

Shares went down, then they all went back up again (rally)... Now they seem to be creeping up slowly as if nothing's happened... Have traders heard so much about the economy that they've just had enough and are just getting on with it, despite the news in the paper?

[skid]

Well,Im betting the Fed will chicken out and postpone the interest rate increase--but trying to understand what is going on behind the scenes in China (and the whole Chinese Psyche is a different story altogether) How they will act in spite of what the Gov does is anyones guess--add to that Brazil and the other emerging countries and there are still many ways the wheels can fall off....Vs..some may miss some good buys---you be the judge--Is this the time for the gamble?

As stated ,Im not surprised at the Feds decision(It sure didnt cause a giant leap in the stock market yet,though) (does this feel like good times for equities?--,now on to China

Bear with me as I just cant bear this--its bear y confusing ...Bear ask the experts although they are bear ly right half the time

[Jantar]

Bear with me as I just cant bear this--its bear y confusing ...Bear ask the experts although they are bear ly right half the time
Sounds like a lot of Bull to me.

[BlackPeter]

I trade the China50 index BP via a CFD through CMC Global markets.
Very small positions as the spreads are wide & volatility huge.
cheers ...

[skid]

Sounds like a lot of Bull to me.
This Bull has been clothed with all sorts artificial intervention--strip all that away and you get a bear bull:)

[pedro.nz]

No, you get a bum steer :D

Love it :t_up:

[Baa_Baa]

Bit of fun never hurt anyone. But it's not over (boo). Maybe save the analysis for the weekend, we can bask in the Fed kicking the can down the road in the meantime.

[Daytr]

Normal service resumes it seems. Equities, oil both down, EUR down.
Huge volatility with the DOW trading in a 500+ point range.
Great opportunity to reset a lot of short positions yesterday.
Just picked up the Chinese market on the lows from overnight.
I am a firm believer that since the G20 Beijing has been guiding their market higher.

[Beagle]

All this volatility is very difficult to bear. Bear in mind though that some NZX stocks are on great dividend yields, (circa 10%), and will benefit from the lower $Kiwi e.g. SKL so crawling into one's cave, hibernating and enjoying 2.75% on your call account, soon to be only 2% ?, won't necessarily give you the warm fuzzies and could leave you growling in anguish in six months time when you emerge to go hunting.

[NZSilver]

Party is just getting started!

[skid]

All this volatility is very difficult to bear. Bear in mind though that some NZX stocks are on great dividend yields, (circa 10%), and will benefit from the lower $Kiwi e.g. SKL so crawling into one's cave, hibernating and enjoying 2.75% on your call account, soon to be only 2% ?, won't necessarily give you the warm fuzzies and could leave you growling in anguish in six months time when you emerge to go hunting.

no ones going to get rich by putting their money in a measly term or on call acc-----The idea is not to get poor--Even those good earners can get hammered and at some point be better good earners when the dust settles.(of course the first step if your concerned with the market in general is to clear out the speculative stuff)

I found that sometimes its easy to lose track of the fact that exiting a stock can just be a temporary strategy

[skid]

No, you get a bum steer :D

thinking of a steers bum first thing in the morning is almost as disturbing as checking on the US markets:):)

[skid]

Thought of the week......


The benchmark index has recovered some losses, but it’s still down 6.7% since Aug. 17. The damage to investor psychology has been so deep that if the market rebounds to where it was, “you will return to the scene of the crime,” Worth said. The 10.9% decline from the high on Aug. 19 through the low on Aug. 24 was the fourth-worst three-day plunge on record, he said, exceeded only by crashes in 1929,1987 and 2008.

FactSet
“Many people are in, but wish they could get out, after the loss they have sustained on paper,” he said. “They will seize that chance. Going higher from here simply returns us to where sellers are lying in wait.”

[skid]

Im back home ,sitting in the lounge with a fire going,and a cup of tea,watching the news about the big traffic jam.--Im pretty much retired anyway so ill most likely go another time when its easier as the destination is interesting.

I can see how those who have put the time and effort into research and knowledge and have become very adept would choose the side roads to get there--takes alot of work and skill though. :)

pS-those in the traffic jam stuck on the train crossing (is there a train coming?) might take a bit longer to reach their destination if the DOW freight train does come :)

[BobbyMorocco]

I'm back at home too. Safe in the knowledge that I'm not going to become poor, but that means I'm not going to get rich right at this moment either. I'm okay with that. I have been considering taking another approach and taking the back roads so to speak but I'm not sure enough in my mind to know what the right road to take is so I think I'll just stay safe in the comforts of home.

It's actually tremendously difficult for one to sit and do nothing for extended periods of time. The mind likes to be active and will often tell you that you must do something, anything, even if you don't know what to do. It tries to make you believe that doing something is better than doing nothing at all.

I've been thinking for a while that I might try a little experiment and I think one of these days soon might be the right time for me try it. I'm going to take a vow of silence for a week. That means no talking, no singing, no humming, no listening to music, no reading, no internet, no tv or screens (except for a few selected games of the rugby world cup which I will watch in silence). It's just going to be me and the little voice inside my head for an entire week! The only communication I will have with anyone will be through body language and the notepad and pen I will carry. Although I will try and use writing for communicating as little as possible. The notepad and pen is more for me to write down any thoughts I may have about what's going on in my head so at the end of the experiment I've got something to go back to, study and analyze if I have the desire to do so. It will be my record of the experiment.

The reason I'm doing this is because I think it will be interesting to see how my mind works when I give it an extended period of silence. A period which is well outside it's comfort zone. I expect this challenge will be quite difficult but if I can complete it I think it will help train my mind to do as I want it to do, rather than the other way around. I'm trying to tell my mind that sometimes it's okay to sit and do absolutely nothing..... hopefully I don't go insane.... or perhaps I'm already there ;-)

I know it doesn't directly relate to the sharemarket but I know a few here understand the role psychology plays in investments, so I'm wondering if anyone has ever undertaken a similar challenge/experiment or had similar prolonged periods of silence?

If so I'd be interested to hear about your experience and any thoughts people have on my experiment.

[Daytr]

It sounds very much like a form of meditation. Buddhists do this sort of thing for weeks on end on retreat.
I haven't done it for a week, but sometimes just do it for a few hours to collect my thoughts & I must do it more often as it does clear your mind & give clarity.

[freddagg]

thinking of a steers bum first thing in the morning is almost as disturbing as checking on the US markets:):)
With beef at $5.80/kg a steers bum looks as good to me as a fist full of $100 notes.

[BobbyMorocco]

You should give it a go. Albeit with small positions, don't bet the bank. Do your research, then practice. Its how you learn. If you plan on being in the sharemarket for a long term (likely another 40 years for me) then you need a lot of skills and strategies that you can run with.


True, I agree. It's likely to be another 50+ years for me so I plan to add skills, try and learn as I go but I was also thinking that it may be wise for me to take it easy on the next (this?) downward cycle and spend more time on the sidelines observing what happens. Having only started investing in 2013 I have no experience in medium to large corrections or bear markets and don't want to bite off more than I can chew. Perhaps if I get a good handle on what happens this time, I'll be more experienced, comfortable and confident to apply different and more aggressive strategies the next time around. Although taking a quiet stroll down the back roads also doesn't seem so bad and you're right sometimes the most enjoyable road is the scenic route you didn't intend on taking.

[ratkin]

Why is everyone acting like something unusual is happening? The markets are just going up and down like they always do. This thread has moved into very strange territory

[Daytr]

Sounds very sensible Bobby Moroccco. My first year of work and exposure to the stock market was 1988 just post the big crash.
You will learn far more from big corrections or market collapses than at any other time.
You appear to have the right temperament so good luck to you.
Two words I think some up trading or investing.
Discipline & patience.


True, I agree. It's likely to be another 50+ years for me so I plan to add skills, try and learn as I go but I was also thinking that it may be wise for me to take it easy on the next (this?) downward cycle and spend more time on the sidelines observing what happens. Having only started investing in 2013 I have no experience in medium to large corrections or bear markets and don't want to bite off more than I can chew. Perhaps if I get a good handle on what happens this time, I'll be more experienced, comfortable and confident to apply different and more aggressive strategies the next time around. Although taking a quiet stroll down the back roads also doesn't seem so bad and you're right sometimes the most enjoyable road is the scenic route you didn't intend on taking.

[couta1]

Why is everyone acting like something unusual is happening? The markets are just going up and down like they always do. This thread has moved into very strange territory
Your not wrong ratkin but then its human nature to turn nothing into something, my red arrow gets bigger and smaller and bigger again so its all just run of the mill stuff as far as I'm concerned. PS- Some big divvys will be hitting my bank account over the next few weeks so all good.

[Beagle]

I'm back at home too. Safe in the knowledge that I'm not going to become poor, but that means I'm not going to get rich right at this moment either. I'm okay with that. I have been considering taking another approach and taking the back roads so to speak but I'm not sure enough in my mind to know what the right road to take is so I think I'll just stay safe in the comforts of home.

It's actually tremendously difficult for one to sit and do nothing for extended periods of time. The mind likes to be active and will often tell you that you must do something, anything, even if you don't know what to do. It tries to make you believe that doing something is better than doing nothing at all.
I've been thinking for a while that I might try a little experiment and I think one of these days soon might be the right time for me try it. I'm going to take a vow of silence for a week. That means no talking, no singing, no humming, no listening to music, no reading, no internet, no tv or screens (except for a few selected games of the rugby world cup which I will watch in silence). It's just going to be me and the little voice inside my head for an entire week! The only communication I will have with anyone will be through body language and the notepad and pen I will carry. Although I will try and use writing for communicating as little as possible. The notepad and pen is more for me to write down any thoughts I may have about what's going on in my head so at the end of the experiment I've got something to go back to, study and analyze if I have the desire to do so. It will be my record of the experiment.

The reason I'm doing this is because I think it will be interesting to see how my mind works when I give it an extended period of silence. A period which is well outside it's comfort zone. I expect this challenge will be quite difficult but if I can complete it I think it will help train my mind to do as I want it to do, rather than the other way around. I'm trying to tell my mind that sometimes it's okay to sit and do absolutely nothing..... hopefully I don't go insane.... or perhaps I'm already there ;-)

I know it doesn't directly relate to the sharemarket but I know a few here understand the role psychology plays in investments, so I'm wondering if anyone has ever undertaken a similar challenge/experiment or had similar prolonged periods of silence?

If so I'd be interested to hear about your experience and any thoughts people have on my experiment.

Interesting post. I'd love to just get off the grid for a week and ponder where to from here. Sometimes, in fact far too often I think its easy to let the noise of the marketplace drown out what's truly important in life.

[skid]

I'm back at home too. Safe in the knowledge that I'm not going to become poor, but that means I'm not going to get rich right at this moment either. I'm okay with that. I have been considering taking another approach and taking the back roads so to speak but I'm not sure enough in my mind to know what the right road to take is so I think I'll just stay safe in the comforts of home.

It's actually tremendously difficult for one to sit and do nothing for extended periods of time. The mind likes to be active and will often tell you that you must do something, anything, even if you don't know what to do. It tries to make you believe that doing something is better than doing nothing at all.

I've been thinking for a while that I might try a little experiment and I think one of these days soon might be the right time for me try it. I'm going to take a vow of silence for a week. That means no talking, no singing, no humming, no listening to music, no reading, no internet, no tv or screens (except for a few selected games of the rugby world cup which I will watch in silence). It's just going to be me and the little voice inside my head for an entire week! The only communication I will have with anyone will be through body language and the notepad and pen I will carry. Although I will try and use writing for communicating as little as possible. The notepad and pen is more for me to write down any thoughts I may have about what's going on in my head so at the end of the experiment I've got something to go back to, study and analyze if I have the desire to do so. It will be my record of the experiment.

The reason I'm doing this is because I think it will be interesting to see how my mind works when I give it an extended period of silence. A period which is well outside it's comfort zone. I expect this challenge will be quite difficult but if I can complete it I think it will help train my mind to do as I want it to do, rather than the other way around. I'm trying to tell my mind that sometimes it's okay to sit and do absolutely nothing..... hopefully I don't go insane.... or perhaps I'm already there ;-)

I know it doesn't directly relate to the sharemarket but I know a few here understand the role psychology plays in investments, so I'm wondering if anyone has ever undertaken a similar challenge/experiment or had similar prolonged periods of silence?

If so I'd be interested to hear about your experience and any thoughts people have on my experiment.

the noise is not just the share market --the noise is inside our head for everything---maybe consider a 10 day meditation course--its not a walk in the park but if your that way inclined you can PM me for details-(Its not any form of religion-just working on disciplining the mind(they say it makes a much better servant ,than master)-otherwise good luck on your experiment.

[skid]

Interesting post. I'd love to just get off the grid for a week and ponder where to from here. Sometimes, in fact far too often I think its easy to let the noise of the marketplace drown out what's truly important in life.

spot on Roger--These are just some economic roads--there are plenty of other roads that have absolutely stunning scenery(really important things in life)
Ive noticed that many posters ,when hearing about what some think is the dire state of things economically,make the mistake of thinking we dont know these other roads exist.--Of course these roads are a metaphor but in terms of the literal-go back and look at my ''crises what crises'' post on this thread:)--Its only a road ,but a dang nice one(its the cultural rewards of the trip that really hit home) but im sure everyone has there equivalent. (post 545)

[skid]

Im amazed at our NZ markets ability to stay somehow insulated from all this---The OZ market is sure not liking Fridays results

[Beagle]

Check this place out - http://medini.dhamma.org/
Its a free 10 day course (donation expected though). But should do the trick. There are other Vipissana centres if that one doesnt suit.

Thanks KW. Looks like a REAL "off the grid" experience. Don't bother even taking your watch. Anyone done this or something like it ?

[Beagle]

Perhaps we should all enrol. A Sharetrader meeting, where we all sit around and not discuss stocks LOL
Might be something to do while the market sorts itself out.

LOL - I think we need a poll or what we'd miss the most for the 10 days. Be a tough gig not patting my dogs for 10 days or going on Trade Me to dream about a new boat or no driving my cars, no drinking, no speaking, no meat, no T.V....I suspect not having my wife nag me for 10 whole days would be a really beautiful, enriching, and calming experience...talking about finding utopia....I'm just about ready to sign up LOL

[trader_jackson]

What I found interesting today, is that in a sea of Red (especially on the ASX), speculative stocks (like XRO and PEB) did very very well today (both up over 6%) meanwhile the traditional 'blue chips' did not do so well (like Fletcher Building, down close to 4%)... interesting because when things are as volatile and "unsure" as they supposedly are, speculative stocks don't usually lead the charge (then again, one would argue they may have been 'oversold' in recent weeks, especially PEB at least)

[skid]

Guess we will find out tomorrow if the markets continue their slide---sometimes those day to day things can be one giant puzzle,esp in a market like NZX,which in itself seems to have bucked the trend(today at least)

Are you betting on XRO as well TJ?

[kiora]

What I found interesting today, is that in a sea of Red (especially on the ASX), speculative stocks (like XRO and PEB) did very very well today (both up over 6%) meanwhile the traditional 'blue chips' did not do so well (like Fletcher Building, down close to 4%)... interesting because when things are as volatile and "unsure" as they supposedly are, speculative stocks don't usually lead the charge (then again, one would argue they may have been 'oversold' in recent weeks, especially PEB at least)

Most likely due to offshore/funds selling and liquidity

[trader_jackson]

Guess we will find out tomorrow if the markets continue their slide---sometimes those day to day things can be one giant puzzle,esp in a market like NZX,which in itself seems to have bucked the trend(today at least)

Are you betting on XRO as well TJ?

I have had my fun with XRO, although I do know a few friends who hold it

[skid]

Not quite sure how to interpret ''fun''--Do you mean ''fun'' as in PEB fun ?
Sometimes the best 'fun'' is learning how to spell it backwards.

Glad you learned how to exit in some cases

[Baa_Baa]

Perhaps buyers of XRO and PEB are just more practiced in the art of denial than shareholders of other stocks :D Or maybe they just think market declines are normal, like their stocks' prices. :D:D

A classic post, rotfl
😂

[Lewylewylewy]

I'm back at home too. Safe in the knowledge that I'm not going to become poor, but that means I'm not going to get rich right at this moment either. I'm okay with that. I have been considering taking another approach and taking the back roads so to speak but I'm not sure enough in my mind to know what the right road to take is so I think I'll just stay safe in the comforts of home.

It's actually tremendously difficult for one to sit and do nothing for extended periods of time. The mind likes to be active and will often tell you that you must do something, anything, even if you don't know what to do. It tries to make you believe that doing something is better than doing nothing at all.

I've been thinking for a while that I might try a little experiment and I think one of these days soon might be the right time for me try it. I'm going to take a vow of silence for a week. That means no talking, no singing, no humming, no listening to music, no reading, no internet, no tv or screens (except for a few selected games of the rugby world cup which I will watch in silence). It's just going to be me and the little voice inside my head for an entire week! The only communication I will have with anyone will be through body language and the notepad and pen I will carry. Although I will try and use writing for communicating as little as possible. The notepad and pen is more for me to write down any thoughts I may have about what's going on in my head so at the end of the experiment I've got something to go back to, study and analyze if I have the desire to do so. It will be my record of the experiment.

The reason I'm doing this is because I think it will be interesting to see how my mind works when I give it an extended period of silence. A period which is well outside it's comfort zone. I expect this challenge will be quite difficult but if I can complete it I think it will help train my mind to do as I want it to do, rather than the other way around. I'm trying to tell my mind that sometimes it's okay to sit and do absolutely nothing..... hopefully I don't go insane.... or perhaps I'm already there ;-)

I know it doesn't directly relate to the sharemarket but I know a few here understand the role psychology plays in investments, so I'm wondering if anyone has ever undertaken a similar challenge/experiment or had similar prolonged periods of silence?

If so I'd be interested to hear about your experience and any thoughts people have on my experiment.

I think that's why people have holidays without their phone - helped me, anyway!

[Lewylewylewy]

Anyone else sitting on 99% cash at the moment?

My view is that shares are like hot bimbos, you'll want to have as many as you can at once, but by god you've got to know when to pull out or you'll find yourself with some serious financial problems for the next few decades.

[trader_jackson]

Anyone else sitting on 99% cash at the moment?

My view is that shares are like hot bimbos, you'll want to have as many as you can at once, but by god you've got to know when to pull out or you'll find yourself with some serious financial problems for the next few decades.

You confuse me a bit, firstly you are on a website called "sharetrader" to talk about having "99%" cash?

Secondly, it is a scientific fact that over the long run shares, on average, provide the best return...

[stoploss]

Anyone else sitting on 99% cash at the moment?

My view is that shares are like hot bimbos, you'll want to have as many as you can at once, but by god you've got to know when to pull out or you'll find yourself with some serious financial problems for the next few decades.

There is always something going up , or a sector outperforming . Yes times to be in cash , protected for the downside . Not sure about a couple of decades though.

[percy]

With more and more imputated dividends hitting my bank I am finding my concerns for world markets are lessening by the day.
My NZ portfolio is full of companies with strong balance sheets,low debt,excellent cash flows,many exporters,and all have the capacity to keep increasing their dividends.
"Well positioned." lol

[couta1]

Anyone else sitting on 99% cash at the moment?

My view is that shares are like hot bimbos, you'll want to have as many as you can at once, but by god you've got to know when to pull out or you'll find yourself with some serious financial problems for the next few decades.
Yeah Right.

[janner]

Anyone else sitting on 99% cash at the moment?

My view is that shares are like hot bimbos, you'll want to have as many as you can at once, but by god you've got to know when to pull out or you'll find yourself with some serious financial problems for the next few decades.

I am more than happy with my longest held share.. 16/17 years..

Blackmores Check that price increase out... With good dividends... :-)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

[skid]

Yeah Right.

Some would find your losses would cause serious financial problems for the next few decades--are you criticizing the poster for wanting to avoid this?

[couta1]

Some would find your losses would cause serious financial problems for the next few decades--are you criticizing the poster for wanting to avoid this?
Just a tongue in cheek response to the post Skid, and 99% in cash? Why? PS-99% in equities plus enough cash on hand for those things that come up from time to time. PPS-I prefer an intelligent woman to a hot bimbo.

[skid]

You confuse me a bit, firstly you are on a website called "sharetrader" to talk about having "99%" cash?

Secondly, it is a scientific fact that over the long run shares, on average, provide the best return...

TJ ,there are so many holes in that logic that I dont know where to start---Tradeing shares does not mean that you blindly stay in at all times--of course you monitor when you are out for a time to reenter -(If you are successful you will be back in your preferred stock at a far better price) (wouldnt you like to have your PEB shares at the price I could get them for today?)Could be a VERY long run.

Your scientific fact(which is just statistics)is no reason to buy into a correction or possible crash.
Surely you must see that not all is well out there,even though the NZ markets have stood up relatively well--Any one who is paying attention would know that if the world markets do get into more serious trouble they will pull the NZ market down with them (go back and look at the last GFC)
now that may not happen ,but to criticize someone who has decided to keep his powder dry through this period (and that includes me)is a bit reckless.
At the moment there are still NZ shares that are doing well for investors so it makes sense for them to stay put and monitor--but not blindly hold because of some stats--I dare say that if you get caught ,your ''long run'' will be considerably longer than others who were more cautious.

[skid]

Just a tongue in cheek response to the post Skid, and 99% in cash? Why? PS-99% in equities plus enough cash on hand for those things that come up from time to time.

Why?--Because the poster may not have the same reserves as you that allows him to gamble in the same reckless manner--no offence but I cant think of another way to describe the losses you have noted.
Cash is relatively safe and allows an investor to maybe enter at a far better price--a price that represents a more realistic value --(or at less than the value if the share has been pulled down by others.)

He will have plenty of time to get into the market and participate when things settle down.

[couta1]

We will agree to disagree Skid, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum for a multitude of reasons:cool:

[skid]

With more and more imputated dividends hitting my bank I am finding my concerns for world markets are lessening by the day.
My NZ portfolio is full of companies with strong balance sheets,low debt,excellent cash flows,many exporters,and all have the capacity to keep increasing their dividends.
"Well positioned." lol

Those dividends represent a period before all these economic concerns have come up--Thats great that you have good shares,but I guess the real question is ,is this the time for someone just starting to buy them? Im not suggesting either way but just putting things in perspective.
I think the important point in your post is that you have gone for relatively safe and stable shares. Its the spec plays that are dangerous and even safe shares need to be monitored IMO
We dont know what shares ,if any the poster has sold to go to cash,but there are many that would indicate he was prudent to do so.

[skid]

We will agree to disagree Skid, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum for a multitude of reasons:cool:

agreed ,although I think we may find more common ground in a different market situation--we will never be exactly on the same page probably though,but thats life!

[percy]

Those dividends represent a period before all these economic concerns have come up--Thats great that you have good shares,but I guess the real question is ,is this the time for someone just starting to buy them? Im not suggesting either way but just putting things in perspective.
I think the important point in your post is that you have gone for relatively safe and stable shares. Its the spec plays that are dangerous and even safe shares need to be monitored IMO
We dont know what shares ,if any the poster has sold to go to cash,but there are many that would indicate he was prudent to do so.

I think your post is excellent,and it reminds us, we all have different objectives from the market,and the companies that make up the market , at various stages of our life.And yes anyone starting out would do very well with my portfolio of quality companies.
For me boring is best,although I still think there is a place for a small % of any portfolio in well thought out specs.My specs are small cap Aussie companies,which I hope are not really specs,but young aggressive growth companies just waiting for the market to find them..
On the thread "Where to invest? my post #2 .. 01-10-2011 would have been very profitable for those people who brought those shares,and they will continue to be so.

[ratkin]

We will agree to disagree Skid, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum for a multitude of reasons:cool:

Skid is talking about trading, Couta, where as you are an investor. Its quite natural for traders to be 100% cash at various times.

[trader_jackson]

TJ ,there are so many holes in that logic that I dont know where to start---Tradeing shares does not mean that you blindly stay in at all times--of course you monitor when you are out for a time to reenter -(If you are successful you will be back in your preferred stock at a far better price) (wouldnt you like to have your PEB shares at the price I could get them for today?)Could be a VERY long run.

Your scientific fact(which is just statistics)is no reason to buy into a correction or possible crash.
Surely you must see that not all is well out there,even though the NZ markets have stood up relatively well--Any one who is paying attention would know that if the world markets do get into more serious trouble they will pull the NZ market down with them (go back and look at the last GFC)
now that may not happen ,but to criticize someone who has decided to keep his powder dry through this period (and that includes me)is a bit reckless.
At the moment there are still NZ shares that are doing well for investors so it makes sense for them to stay put and monitor--but not blindly hold because of some stats--I dare say that if you get caught ,your ''long run'' will be considerably longer than others who were more cautious.

I understand absolutely what you are saying, and contra to my name, I should have said I was talking about things from a "investor" perspective, not trader... otherwise yes could certainly be possible to have 100% cash at times

Lewylewylewy seemed to be implying that when you own shares for a few decades (ie not trading, an investor) they will cause serious problems, which is, well plain wrong (going on an average/index basis at least anyway)

Would be great if I had more cash to scoop up PEB, like fund managers probably are, but hey I'm not going to complain about the 10% in the past 8-9 hours of trading :t_up:

[skid]

Lewly said ''but you've got to know when to pull out''--That I believe goes for investors as well as traders--There is no reason why wanting to own a stock you like long term,prevents you from exiting when things are decidedly dicey.

Yes ,a good little short term burst for PEB--but what does it tell you when people get excited over it hitting 50-51---Its a very dangerous share---even the early investors must be getting close to a loss on paper if they held right through.---Its a buy and hold nightmare.
Its a small co that made big claims---keep your eye on MDX that made 3X the sales and has a much smaller forecast for the bladder cancer test market sales-(Whats to keep them from taking over the market?)--Institutions seem to be the only news--wheres the news from the company?(Devon has done ok in the past but made a notable loss in the last 6 months)
You came on posting in May so if you had bought then you still have considerable ground to cover-(+-40%)-think of those who bought @$1+or more-(like me @$1 before bailing @.90)--You seem to think of PEB as a blue chip instead of a pretty risky spec stock (in troubled economic times)---but nevertheless enjoy the party for now

[trader_jackson]

Not much of a party yet, as like many PEB investors, I'm at a loss... but its nice to see there has been a bit of a bounce and lets just see where it goes in the next couple of years (although I didn't think it would go much below 60c). They have made big claims, claims they actually don't yet need to back up (its 2015 not 2018...) and they have ample cash, so nothing to panic about (yet). I am not sure on MDX so I can't really comment but anyway lets not turn this into another PEB thread...

[skid]

agreed --it was just an example--the happiest atm seem to be those getting Divies

[blackcap]

Lewly said ''but you've got to know when to pull out''--That I believe goes for investors as well as traders--There is no reason why wanting to own a stock you like long term,prevents you from exiting when things are decidedly dicey.


Hi Skid, some can't as it would make them a trader and force them to pay tax on their profits. As things stand at present my buy/hold portfolio gets a 30 odd % advantage over my trading portfolio for this very reason. Something even the most ardent of traders would find difficult to emulate.

[Hoop]

A puzzle that needs solving
All the optimistic people who are 100% in are hoping for the paranoid" to sell so they can buy "cheap" shares....Hmmmm...with what?...you have no cash????

[trader_jackson]

A puzzle that needs solving
All the optimistic people who are 100% in are hoping for the paranoid" to sell so they can buy "cheap" shares....Hmmmm...with what?...you have no cash????

I'm not hoping for this!

My macro view is: I don't know why everyone things a massive crash is coming... things will just truck along (high single digit gains) rather than speed along (double digit gains: like things have been in the past few years on the NZX)

[Absolute144]

I'm not hoping for this!

My macro view is: I don't know why everyone things a massive crash is coming... things will just truck along (high single digit gains) rather than speed along (double digit gains: like things have been in the past few years on the NZX)

just google "fed negative interest rates"

[blackcap]

That is not true. Whether you pay income tax on your profits depends on your intention when you purchased the stock, not if or when you sell it. An investor can sell stock for any number of reasons, and it does not make them a trader. Selling in order to preserve capital in a bear market is a non-taxable sale event.

I think the IRD in NZ may have a different view especially if you went and bought the shares back again when the market turned. I know the old adage of "7 trades makes a trader" is not correct, but I think if you sell your portfolio (and not at the same time) then the IRD will most certainly take an interest in proceedings.
Not to say that I do not sell stock and buy others...ie sold some MTU and bought CDD to "re weight" my portfolio but in general I do not buy/sell/buy sell when I think the stock is trading outside its valuation.
Whether one is or is not a trader is at best still a very grey area.

[skid]

Im not so sure I agree with that BC--If I buy a share because i like it and want to hold it as an investment for the long term,but the market turns and i have to sell to preserve capital and not lose my shirt --It seems very logical that when the market does turn back ,I would want to get back in that very share,for the reason that my main motivation was in the first place to hold long term.
Just because its an investment, doesnt mean you do nothing if that investment is threatened.
If you had had money in one of those finance cos that went bust and you did your homework ahead of time and realized something was rotten--would you have sold?
If it gets to the point that it does qualify as taxable,Is that really so bad ,compared to losing big time.
I think you are confusing jumping in and out of shares consistently,with exiting when a possible financial crises may be looming.
Do you work? I hope not because that is also taxable.

[couta1]

That is not true. Whether you pay income tax on your profits depends on your intention when you purchased the stock, not if or when you sell it. An investor can sell stock for any number of reasons, and it does not make them a trader. Selling in order to preserve capital in a bear market is a non-taxable sale event
This is one area where you and i agree on completely and every new purchase starts with a new intent regardless of how many times you owned the same share previously, the IRD master tax guide only defines intent at time of purchase as the critical factor in determining your tax liability not reason for selling. It appears grey simply because we dont have a universal capital gains tax in NZ.

[blackcap]

Im not so sure I agree with that BC--If I buy a share because i like it and want to hold it as an investment for the long term,but the market turns and i have to sell to preserve capital and not lose my shirt --It seems very logical that when the market does turn back ,I would want to get back in that very share,for the reason that my main motivation was in the first place to hold long term.
Just because its an investment, doesnt mean you do nothing if that investment is threatened.
If you had had money in one of those finance cos that went bust and you did your homework ahead of time and realized something was rotten--would you have sold?
If it gets to the point that it does qualify as taxable,Is that really so bad ,compared to losing big time.
I think you are confusing jumping in and out of shares consistently,with exiting when a possible financial crises may be looming.
Do you work? I hope not because that is also taxable.

I know where you and KW and Couta are coming from and yes it is with every share purchase the "intent" that is critical. I am not disputing that. However try and tell some IRD audit clerk that your intent was to buy and hold indefinitely for income when all they see are a whole bunch of buys and sells on your trade sheet......

[skid]

''I see you have a whole bunch of buys and sells on your trade sheet''....''yes,that true sir,can I deduct the $300,000 loss from my work income''?

[Daytr]

Yeah its looking pretty ugly.

[DarkHorse]

That is not true. Whether you pay income tax on your profits depends on your intention when you purchased the stock, not if or when you sell it. An investor can sell stock for any number of reasons, and it does not make them a trader. Selling in order to preserve capital in a bear market is a non-taxable sale event.

Indeed "intention at the time of purchase" is the legal test. When selling I think it's prudent to make a note of the reason, focusing on factors which may impinge on the company's future sustainability and profitability, and therefore ability to pay dividends. Mentioning the likely direction of stock prices may call into question the motive behind the purchase... When selling several holdings for no other clear reason, it may pay to note general economic concerns - to avoid the implication of 'market concerns' where the sales are largely at a profit.

[Hoop]

Since Black Monday most of the world markets have formed classic pennant/triangle patterns (indicating a pause before a continuation of the previous trend).

It would appear that tonight the FTSE has broken downwards out if its pennant, and Dow Futures indicate the same for the Dow. If so, it could be on like donkey kong :t_up:

:p........https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSFz6-yaDqeKAX0c_oW8evP-dIeRLnFAeCJYW1jWxScSOmHclVJvQ.................:p

[ratkin]

Very interesting article by Colin Nicholson on corrections in a bull market


http://www.bwts.com.au/download/educational-articles/Corrections%20in%20Bull%20Markets.pdf (http://www.bwts.com.au/download/educational-articles/Corrections%20in%20Bull%20Markets.pdf)