Black Monday

[bull....]

sp500 2750 resistance failed next one is just over 2800 also around the 50% retracement level from the low. the week was characterised by the largest % jumps in the most beaten down names which funny enough are the ones most affected by the down turn to come. NZ was no different in this regard.

More than 600,000 Australians apply for early release of superannuation under coronavirus assistance scheme
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/coronvirus-early-release-superannuation-assistance-withdrawals/12137774?section=business

I see this figure has doubled already from my previous post.
Still think NZ govt should do the same with kiwisaver not only does it relieve mental stress when people have a financial back stop provided from a 10 k or 20k boost to peoples bank accounts it provides a boost for the economy.

[Entrep]

bull.... and other bears, do you still think we should fight the fed? I do see elsewhere that a lot of bears seem to be capitulating (I am still highly bearish and sitting on cash).

[Balance]

bull.... and other bears, do you still think we should fight the fed? I do see elsewhere that a lot of bears seem to be capitulating (I am still highly bearish and sitting on cash).

Cash which is going to be worth bugger all when the trillions of dollars pumped out of thin air swamp the financial markets.

[bull....]

bull.... and other bears, do you still think we should fight the fed? I do see elsewhere that a lot of bears seem to be capitulating (I am still highly bearish and sitting on cash).

im still mostly cash apart from the odd short term trade i do because i still believe we are in a bear market and yes fighting the fed has historically proven to be a losers game. but these are not normal times.

if we race to new highs here when unemployment around the world is going thru the roof and company earnings are going to be less and fundamental multiples are still expensive at these levels based on future earnings etc then i say the whole stock market world is rigged because of this money printing and there will never be a bear market again in history lol.

[Entrep]

https://twitter.com/SmartContracter/status/1248354277044543488?s=09

11244

[bull....]

https://twitter.com/SmartContracter/status/1248354277044543488?s=09

11244

nice charts

[Balance]

https://twitter.com/SmartContracter/status/1248354277044543488?s=09


Overlay with charts from 1987, 1997 and 2007 - then you will get a picture of what governments and central banks have learnt to do when confronted with economic crisis.

[Bobdn]

Best week for the S&P since 1974.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

I wonder if the last month included some of the best investing days of the decade?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/when-you-sell-during-a-panic-you-may-miss-the-markets-best-days.html

[Balance]

Best week for the S&P since 1974.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

I wonder if the last month included some of the best investing days of the decade?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/when-you-sell-during-a-panic-you-may-miss-the-markets-best-days.html

Probably - these events happen once every 10 years or so, the last being in 2007/09.

But who really knows if there's another wave of selling to come?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52236936

One can only learn from the greatest investor of our time and 'pay a fair or bargain price for a great business' when the opportunity presents itself.

The sun will still rise tomorrow and 2 years from now, the great businesses will still be around.

[Leftfield]

Best week for the S&P since 1974.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
I wonder if the last month included some of the best investing days of the decade?

Only time will tell...... however, just as NZ's 'success' managing covid-19 is different from other nations, so too the economic effect for sound NZ companies will be different.

I expect a large fall in the USA markets in the coming months but am increasingly confident that sound NZX companies will be spared the worst.

[blackcap]

Only time will tell...... however, just as NZ's 'success' managing covid-19 is different from other nations, so too the economic effect for sound NZ companies will be different.

I expect a large fall in the USA markets in the coming months but am increasingly confident that sound NZX companies will be spared the worst.

I actually think the opposite. NZ is far more reliant on tourism than the US and with our more rigid measures, our economy and markets will be adversely affected when compared to the US.

[Entrep]

https://twitter.com/SmartContracter/status/1248354277044543488?s=09

11244

Same int rate supression too

11245

[Raz]

I actually think the opposite. NZ is far more reliant on tourism than the US and with our more rigid measures, our economy and markets will be adversely affected when compared to the US.

I agree, the depth of commerce and technology sectors overseas full stop is more inviting, look at the effort by previous governments here just to keep GDP growth via population growth alone...

[Entrep]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-world-order-end-capital-markets-we-have-known-them


with the Fed's announcement of unlimited QE and its “will buy or support almost anything,” along with the pending passage of a $2-2.5 trillion stimulus package, this is the end of the capital markets as we have known them.

In Chairman Bernanke‘s 2010 Washington Post op-ed, he argued that QE would lead to a virtuous economic cycle; therefore, the Fed would eventually be able to exit from its QE operations. I argued that once initiated, a reversal would be impossible.

With the initiation of the Fed’s complete takeover and control of the US financial economy, there is now absolutely no accurate pricing discovery in the capital markets and we have entered a period of total manipulation. In light of this, the only markets I have an interest in are those where the heavy hand of government is not involved or only minimally involved. This leads me to rare commodities and collectibles. The public equity and debt markets are now nothing more than greater fool markets that are led by the greatest fools of all, the Fed and the Congress. US capital markets, RIP!

[Bobdn]

I actually think the opposite. NZ is far more reliant on tourism than the US and with our more rigid measures, our economy and markets will be adversely affected when compared to the US.

I tend to agree. We could really suffer here. I'm pretty much just indexing these days and have just 13 per cent going towards NZ shares. Over the last month I got a real sense that the business sector in NZ is kind of seen as expendable, with the Reserve Bank and increased transfer payments seen as a more than adequate substitute. It's a good time to be diversified.

Look, I'm no economics guru. Maybe this whole "productive sector" thing is over rated. We might be able to find new innovative ways for an "economy" to operate. In Star Trek, for example, they didn't even use money and could produce goods through "replicators". Replicators could eliminate "scarcity" in our economy. Sometimes its just a matter of thinking outside the square.

[kiora]

Primary produce looks safer at moment than most investments

[Leftfield]

I actually think the opposite. NZ is far more reliant on tourism than the US and with our more rigid measures, our economy and markets will be adversely affected when compared to the US.

I did say "sound NZX companies..." I don't rate the tourism sector as 'sound' particularly in the new covid-19 paradigm.

NZ's % of Govt borrowing v GDP is much healthier than many. JMHO.

[okay]

I used to watch a US public broadcasting show from time to time called the Nightly Business report. It used to give a good summary of the days events. Sadly it bit the dust last year. They used to have this old guy Art Cashin on, a NYSE floor trader of 60 years. His comments as a floor trader usually gave a good quick feel of the events of the day, with less usual trader rara, and a bit more tempered and experienced insight.

He was in a car accident in February, so this was his first interview since recovering from then, and for those who used to watch NBR he also caught up with his old pal Bob Pisani. The video is at the bottom of the linked page for anyone interested.

Cashin: Fed gives stocks a ‘breath of fresh air’ but full market recovery may take some time yet

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/cashin-fed-gives-stocks-a-breath-of-fresh-air.html

[bull....]

even trumps coming round

Trump says he’s not going to reopen economy ‘until we know this country is going to be healthy’


guess they figured its dumb to open after a 30 day period , would only mean it comes back again

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/10/trump-says-hes-not-going-to-reopen-economy-until-we-know-this-country-is-going-to-be-healthy.html


wonder what ardern thinking on this is ? longer lock down or open up and let the virus rise again?


heres a official virus projection the new york times got there hands on that may have changed trumps mind horrendous figures

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6874-fema-coronavirus-projections/1e16b74eea9e302d8825/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

[Joshuatree]

Ive transferred the below link that moose put up (on another thread) in case some missed it. Great read. Thanks Moose, good to see you threading the boards again.



https://thereformedbroker.com/2013/1...arket-crashes/ (https://thereformedbroker.com/2013/11/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-stock-market-crashes/)

[Joshuatree]

Heres his whole post , great stuff.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/icons/icon3.png Good Times, Bad Times, You Know I Had My Share...
Hello to all on ST,

Long time poster turned longer time lurker. It is good to see plenty on here still around and posting up quality information. To those who have passed on, I am sure they are watching over us and sighing heavily!

So, first of all, let me say that all of this is totally unprecedented. No one can blame you if your jaw is on the floor on a daily basis - absolutely no one. I could not foresee this, everyone I talk to never saw it coming until too late, even permabears are in shock at the speed, ferocity and unmitigated mauling we have all received. I am a historian by trade and delve into the vagaries of historical markets and can confirm the metrics are off the charts - VIX topped out at 85 (just below the GFC); fastest monthly decline on US indices; multiple largest point swings on the DJIA on a daily and intraday timeframe; some of the biggest %age declines since 9/11, 1987 & 1929; US 2Y, 5Y, 10Y & 30Y Treasury swings in orders of magnitude unheard of and reaching all time lows; biggest declines in oil since the Gulf War, etc. etc. It's literally all making history, all at once.

One smart poster called it, "a super turbo charged fast moving and clawing bear". This is the most apt description I have heard yet. If you didn't see it coming, no one blames you, so stop blaming yourself.

Now that you are all in lockdown and not working too hard (I hope), this is the perfect time to review your startegies and tactics. What has worked for you in the past? What hasn't? What are you going to change? What have you learnt from these processes? It's also the perfect time to do some deep digging on individual companies and start picking those that have a solid revenue stream regardless of the macro situation, a good cash position, great management, an enviable track record and, most importantly, those that will grow EPS once this is all over. It isn't up to me or any other poster on here to do this for you. It is YOUR money and YOU manage it - act accordingly. Use your free time wisely, as you won't have a massive opportunity ever again (I hope).

A very wise Legend of this site reminds me during time like these that, "The Comet always misses the Earth". It may seem like the world is ending, but I can assure you it is most definitely not ending. The Reformed Broker has some great advice in this type of situation and how to get through it: https://thereformedbroker.com/2013/1...arket-crashes/ (https://thereformedbroker.com/2013/11/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-stock-market-crashes/)

Above all else, remember, no matter how bleak the situation, it is only money on the line. You have more people than you may realise who will support you, listen to your problems and help you out in your time of greatest need. During these unprecedented times, take care of your family and friends first most, be patient and be kind to others. Together we will get through this.

The sun will rise tomorrow, the birds will continue to chirp and the Moose will still be roaming the wide bushlines of NZ.

Take care all,

Moosie

[Bobdn]

I like Josh Brown, he seems to make sense for the most part, thanks for the link.

I like the term "face ripped off". I first heard it when the DOW hit 10,000 (down 30 per cent) late 2008 and people piled in thinking it was the all clear and then got their "face ripped off" lol.

In this link this man asks is the stock market in recovery or is it just a dead cat bounce?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAAN_nk2D_4

[Cyclical]

I like Josh Brown, he seems to make sense for the most part, thanks for the link.

I like the term "face ripped off". I first heard it when the DOW hit 10,000 (down 30 per cent) late 2008 and people piled in thinking it was the all clear and then got their "face ripped off" lol.

In this link this man asks is the stock market in recovery or is it just a dead cat bounce?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAAN_nk2D_4

Good video that, thanks.

[Tomtom]

I'm quite annoyed by how frequently I'm hearing people say they could not have forecast an infectious disease scenario. Last I checked these, like war and famine, have been frequently recurring themes throughout history. I think we can safely add these in to our modelling.

"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer." - Kehlog Albran, The Profit.

[Brain]

I like Josh Brown, he seems to make sense for the most part, thanks for the link.

I like the term "face ripped off". I first heard it when the DOW hit 10,000 (down 30 per cent) late 2008 and people piled in thinking it was the all clear and then got their "face ripped off" lol.

In this link this man asks is the stock market in recovery or is it just a dead cat bounce?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAAN_nk2D_4

The guy is very entertaining but He didn’t offer any useful advice that I could see. These chart formations are best worked out with hindsight. There will always be a percentage of people that call them correctly and some that will not.
It is just the toss of the dice.

[bull....]

I'm quite annoyed by how frequently I'm hearing people say they could not have forecast an infectious disease scenario. Last I checked these, like war and famine, have been frequently recurring themes throughout history. I think we can safely add these in to our modelling.

"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer." - Kehlog Albran, The Profit.

yep i agree as soon as it flared up big in china in feb it was obvious it would spread to the rest of the world.

My current modelling is rolling waves of infection break outs and moving up and down lock down levels.
People being people will assume everything is back to normal when lock down level 4 moves to 3 in NZ so will quickly forget best care practices this will only seed the next level 4 to come in my opinion. The govt will quickly re - open full school participation due to pressure ( great incubators) even the border controls implemented are not strong enough people can still congregate and go out for fresh air in there hotels and lets not forget the asymptomatic people so it all comes down only to time before the next wave.

[ynot]

The guy is very entertaining but He didn’t offer any useful advice that I could see. These chart formations are best worked out with hindsight. There will always be a percentage of people that call them correctly and some that will not.
It is just the toss of the dice.

Yes agree, he didn't say alot, he did inspire me to look at the recent dow chart.
I'm no chart expert, I'm no expert full stop, but do volumes on the latest bounce look low ?

[Cyclical]

yep i agree as soon as it flared up big in china in feb it was obvious it would spread to the rest of the world.

My current modelling is rolling waves of infection break outs and moving up and down lock down levels.
People being people will assume everything is back to normal when lock down level 4 moves to 3 in NZ so will quickly forget best care practices this will only seed the next level 4 to come in my opinion. The govt will quickly re - open full school participation due to pressure ( great incubators) even the border controls implemented are not strong enough people can still congregate and go out for fresh air in there hotels and lets not forget the asymptomatic people so it all comes down only to time before the next wave.

Unfortunately, Bull, on this occasion, you're probably right.

[mondograss]

Unfortunately, Bull, on this occasion, you're probably right.

Singapore is flaring up again so it’s clear that even in the best case scenario multiple rounds of infection are possible and even likely.

[bull....]

Singapore is flaring up again so it’s clear that even in the best case scenario multiple rounds of infection are possible and even likely.

exactly why waves of infections will happen until a vaccine is found. also why there wont be a v recovery as multiple rounds of infection will destroy some businesses each time and erode consumer confidence each time.

[Bobdn]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/11/robert-shiller-pandemic-of-fear-could-tip-economy-into-a-depression.html

Robert Shiller mentions the D word.

I wonder how many companies listed currently on the NZX50 will still be trading in 3 years time?

[Valuegrowth]

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria,”
FAMOUSLY DESCRIBED SIR JOHN TEMPLETON.

https://leaderpost.com/sponsored/fisher-investments/what-pessimism-tells-investors-about-the-next-bull-market/wcm/847a7832-1839-4427-bbcc-2a87867f9bed/

[Balance]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/11/robert-shiller-pandemic-of-fear-could-tip-economy-into-a-depression.html

Robert Shiller mentions the D word.

I wonder how many companies listed currently on the NZX50 will still be trading in 3 years time?

Exactly right - unfounded panic of fear tipping economies into Undeserved Depression.

Get the impression that there are several posters who are in that category?

[Bobdn]

I'm still investing but I'm not optimistic so am keeping plenty of powder dry.

The only advantage for me personally (and there is a lot of negatives for me) will be that i have quite a lot of work I need doing around the property including the excavation of a bank and the building of a new retaining wall. I'm pretty sure I'll be paying a lot less, possibly a fraction, for this work than I would have before the Government froze the economy. I also have a feeling that the tradesman will turn up when they say they will.

It won't be a great time. Hopefully we'll be able to get back to normal in two to three years.

[Balance]

I'm still investing but I'm not optimistic so am keeping plenty of powder dry.

The only advantage for me personally (and there is a lot of negatives for me) will be that i have quite a lot of work I need doing around the property including the excavation of a bank and the building of a new retaining wall. I'm pretty sure I'll be paying a lot less, possibly a fraction, for this work than I would have before the Government froze the economy. I also have a feeling that the tradesman will turn up when they say they will.

It won't be a great time. Hopefully we'll be able to get back to normal in two to three years.

Beyond our control, Bobdn.

We cannot calm the storm out there - we can keep calm ourselves however, observe developments as they unfold out there and act accordingly.

The storm will pass.

[bull....]

Singapore is flaring up again so it’s clear that even in the best case scenario multiple rounds of infection are possible and even likely.

I forgot to mention another chinese city has gone into lockdown like wuhan

Wuhan may be celebrating, but another Chinese city has gone into lockdown over coronavirus
Wuhan may be celebrating, but another Chinese city has gone into lockdown over coronavirus

https://www.foxnews.com/world/another-chinese-city-in-coronavirus-lockdown


china hasnt got it under control really either

[Cyclical]

I'm still investing but I'm not optimistic so am keeping plenty of powder dry.

The only advantage for me personally (and there is a lot of negatives for me) will be that i have quite a lot of work I need doing around the property including the excavation of a bank and the building of a new retaining wall. I'm pretty sure I'll be paying a lot less, possibly a fraction, for this work than I would have before the Government froze the economy. I also have a feeling that the tradesman will turn up when they say they will.

It won't be a great time. Hopefully we'll be able to get back to normal in two to three years.

Met a self employed painter/decorator on our walk yesterday (while maintaining appropriate social distancing). He's a little concerned that the jobs he had lined up pre-lockdown will be gone post, due to a combination of clients having lost their jobs, or they having done the work themselves while in lockdown.

[Valuegrowth]

Total recovered in Germany: 60,300
Total recovered in Spain: 62391
Total recovered in Iran: 43894

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/spain-eases-lockdown-as-rate-of-coronavirus-infections-hits-new-low (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/spain-eases-lockdown-as-rate-of-coronavirus-infections-hits-new-low)
Spain eases lockdown as rate of coronavirus infections hits new low

[winner69]

Met a self employed painter/decorator on our walk yesterday (while maintaining appropriate social distancing). He's a little concerned that the jobs he had lined up pre-lockdown will be gone post, due to a combination of clients having lost their jobs, or they having done the work themselves while in lockdown.

That's good news ...to me anyway

Might get the house painted after all this year.

[Entrep]

Beyond our control, Bobdn.

We cannot calm the storm out there - we can keep calm ourselves however, observe developments as they unfold out there and act accordingly.

The storm will pass.

Would you rather get 100 shares of X for $1 each or 200 for 50c each, notwithstanding that $1 or lower represents "good value"?

[Balance]

Would you rather get 100 shares of X for $1 each or 200 for 50c each, notwithstanding that $1 or lower represents "good value"?

Does not really make much of a difference - it used to matter in NZ which was why companies kept doing share splits to keep their share prices 'low & cheap' but 'high' sp stocks like XRO, ATM, FPH & MFT have showed investors that it's quality which matters.

[Balance]

That's good news ...to me anyway

Might get the house painted after all this year.

Agreed - time the tradesmen out there get a wake-up call.

Was talking to a developer just the other day and he said that it's a nice change to have tradesmen contacting him to confirm work (after lockdown) than the perennial chasing after them to finish their jobs.

[Oberon]

My main beef with tradesmen are the luxurious windows some provide themselves for when they're turning up. But anyhoo...

We can do stuff all about the rest of the world, but if there's a chance achieving elimination is in the cards, I'm more than happy for them to extend the lock down. The US has been a train wreck from the beginning and they appear fated to a second wave, given how itchy they are to reopen the economy. We're in a much more favorable position so best we take full advantage.

[bull....]

another big potential disaster for any business when level 4 ends

Top Pork Producer Shuts Key Plant and Warns of Meat Shortfall

The world’s biggest pork producer is shuttering a major U.S. plant indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak among employees

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-12/smithfield-foods-idles-sioux-falls-plant-amid-virus-concerns?srnd=premium-asia

[Balance]

another big potential disaster for any business when level 4 ends

Top Pork Producer Shuts Key Plant and Warns of Meat Shortfall

The world’s biggest pork producer is shuttering a major U.S. plant indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak among employees

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-12/smithfield-foods-idles-sioux-falls-plant-amid-virus-concerns?srnd=premium-asia

Great opportunity in this instance for pork exporters from other countries.

US is so stuffed - they were having the time of their lives indulging in ‘spread Covid-19 parties’ until a month ago.

[Valuegrowth]

There are some winners. Essential businesses are one of the first winners. Listed companies like Fonterra, A2, Synlait, Scales, Seeka, T&G Global and fishing company Sanford should benefit in a situation like this. Investors cannot buy shares of Tegel Poultry as they delisted it. Inghams Group Ltd (ASX: ING) is another poultry company in the meat group. As value and current stocks prices are two different things, in-depth analysis is needed to pick quality stocks and mitigate risks involve in stocks.

[blobbles]

I'm quite annoyed by how frequently I'm hearing people say they could not have forecast an infectious disease scenario. Last I checked these, like war and famine, have been frequently recurring themes throughout history. I think we can safely add these in to our modelling.

"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer." - Kehlog Albran, The Profit.

Yeah, it's stupid, I picked it, pulled everything in Jan/Feb and new something was going to pop the bubble since last year when I had been moving to gold. I also bought a lot of extra necessities, about 40 cans, heaps of pasta/rice/tomato etc and replanted the garden suspecting it was going to go mental. You only had to look at the early info we had on the virus from China. Once I heard it was 4-14 days without symptoms, I knew it was going to go worldwide (if it hadn't already) so prepped for it. I was thinking about a property purchase as well, which we pulled out of. So far, everything that I suspected would happen has happened. I aren't some sort of prophet, I just think it's obvious what is happening and what was going to happen given the characteristics of the virus. I told a few of my friends and family what I saw happening and at the time they thought I was batty - but after a few have lost their job, they are now taking it seriously.

Massive deleveraging happening with a likely 1-3 year depression IMO. Keep your job if you have it and if you are in debt, you may be on the right or wrong side of it. Tourism is screwed for at least 2 years and it's 14% of NZ economy. I am picking our GDP down around 20% over the next year, the US probably worse. It could be enough to tip something over in the US and cause massive problems due to their inept leadership. By tip something over, I mean potentially them going to a war footing (because that's how America rolls these days) and doing something like invading Venezuela, or hell, why not Mexico. Trump needs attention diverted, so I would not put them past a cassus belli event and an invasion. Seems crazy to think that it could occur, but Trump/America lash out like children when something doesn't go their way.

We have already had helicopter money, expect this to grow ridiculously and it will be less and less effective. I am guessing around 15t will be printed in the US before this is over. We could easily get a financial crisis next, so have transferred a lot of funds around to prepare. Also have cash on hand. Money in NZ banks is not safe due to the OBR, I suggest people think about that.

There's a lot more pain ahead and people are delusional if they think we are just going back to BAU in a month or two. Unemployment will be 10-15% in 6 months or so and house prices will be dropping off the cliff as long as they don't get massive government support (which may happen).

Wave 2 and 3 IMO are the ones we have to worry about as by that time people will be sick of the virus restrictions and less likely to comply.

[winner69]

Yeah, it's stupid, I picked it, pulled everything in Jan/Feb and new something was going to pop the bubble since last year when I had been moving to gold. I also bought a lot of extra necessities, about 40 cans, heaps of pasta/rice/tomato etc and replanted the garden suspecting it was going to go mental. You only had to look at the early info we had on the virus from China. Once I heard it was 4-14 days without symptoms, I knew it was going to go worldwide (if it hadn't already) so prepped for it. I was thinking about a property purchase as well, which we pulled out of. So far, everything that I suspected would happen has happened. I aren't some sort of prophet, I just think it's obvious what is happening and what was going to happen given the characteristics of the virus. I told a few of my friends and family what I saw happening and at the time they thought I was batty - but after a few have lost their job, they are now taking it seriously.

Massive deleveraging happening with a likely 1-3 year depression IMO. Keep your job if you have it and if you are in debt, you may be on the right or wrong side of it. Tourism is screwed for at least 2 years and it's 14% of NZ economy. I am picking our GDP down around 20% over the next year, the US probably worse. It could be enough to tip something over in the US and cause massive problems due to their inept leadership. By tip something over, I mean potentially them going to a war footing (because that's how America rolls these days) and doing something like invading Venezuela, or hell, why not Mexico. Trump needs attention diverted, so I would not put them past a cassus belli event and an invasion. Seems crazy to think that it could occur, but Trump/America lash out like children when something doesn't go their way.

We have already had helicopter money, expect this to grow ridiculously and it will be less and less effective. I am guessing around 15t will be printed in the US before this is over. We could easily get a financial crisis next, so have transferred a lot of funds around to prepare. Also have cash on hand. Money in NZ banks is not safe due to the OBR, I suggest people think about that.

There's a lot more pain ahead and people are delusional if they think we are just going back to BAU in a month or two. Unemployment will be 10-15% in 6 months or so and house prices will be dropping off the cliff as long as they don't get massive government support (which may happen).

Wave 2 and 3 IMO are the ones we have to worry about as by that time people will be sick of the virus restrictions and less likely to comply.

Looking pretty grim isn’t it blobbles.

[Traderwannabe]

Blobbles, you mentioned you have cash transferred around, but that NZ Banks are not safe, can I ask where you have put your cash? If you would rather not share that’s ok too. Anyone else like to share what they have done with their cash.
I’ve purchased some kiwi bonds, and have term deposits in the Kiwibank as I feel it’s the safest bank as it’s owned by the government. But very keen to hear what others are doing...

[ratkin]

Blobbles, you mentioned you have cash transferred around, but that NZ Banks are not safe, can I ask where you have put your cash? If you would rather not share that’s ok too. Anyone else like to share what they have done with their cash.
I’ve purchased some kiwi bonds, and have term deposits in the Kiwibank as I feel it’s the safest bank as it’s owned by the government. But very keen to hear what others are doing...

I have done very similar, Kiwi bonds at 1% (maybe lower now) and a range of soon to mature term deposits, biggest kiwi bank and ASB.
Short term banks seem ok, all the stimulus saw to that, but until I am ready to get back in the markets, feel safer with govt bonds. It not like their a huge difference in the rates, and right now safety first.

[blobbles]

Looking pretty grim isn’t it blobbles.

Short term, yes. However I never bet against human ingenuity. We will be better in the long run, but this may see the end of a whole lot of ways of working which will probably be good for us.

Provided we don't get some stupid wars and we kick along applying our intelligence and humanity, we will most likely come up with some good new ways of doing things. Which will (hopefully) include more resilience and less of the stupendously bad monetary policy and rapacious capitalism that has stolen the wealth of future generations (climate change/energy drawdown etc). The things I hope we will realise as a species:



Energy based global currency based on an energy unit with modifiers for dirty vs clean energy. Bit coin enabled, spendable everywhere (too many resources wasted on fiat currency exchange)
Resilient systems - not single factory in single country with resources for production coming from single places. It works for economies of scale reasons, but enforces a brittle system
Reduction in asset prices to sensible valuations, particularly housing which has devastated and polarised generations
Degrowthing and population restrictions along with mass uptake of less meat based diets - fake meat is great
More local, community thinking and planning - we keep thinking the leaders are smart and have all information when they more and more have neither smarts nor full information
Technology led revolution in AI and robotics with a UBI. Encouragement for people to work in any field - there are too many people passionate about one thing while not having the ability to pursue it - super smart taxi drivers and ridiculously intelligent farmers who could apply their skills to push humanity forward. Such a change could result in a second Renaissance as people were freed to push into the arts and advanced fields of study they are passionate about. Removal of the need to work to live - everyone has enough for basic food/rent/power/clothes. Instead you work to drive humanity forward and payment is based on your long term success, not how much you can game the system short term.
Clear focus on long term goals, not short term at the expense of long term


Further out: colonisation of other planets. Needs to happen as humanity should hopefully realise this tiny blue dot - spec of dust in the solar system is very, very fragile.

[blobbles]

Blobbles, you mentioned you have cash transferred around, but that NZ Banks are not safe, can I ask where you have put your cash? If you would rather not share that’s ok too. Anyone else like to share what they have done with their cash.
I’ve purchased some kiwi bonds, and have term deposits in the Kiwibank as I feel it’s the safest bank as it’s owned by the government. But very keen to hear what others are doing...

Depends on your situation, but you can get 250k guaranteed in Aus (as I understand) and can fairly easily open bank accounts in other countries. I have some in US/Aus and the same as you - mostly in Kiwibank. Kiwibonds and shares in companies that aren't overvalued and provide returns (power companies for instance) would be a good place to put cash.

We don't need a huge property correction in this country for our banks to be near enough to insolvent (60% of all lending in residential lending, 25% of which is interest only?), which is why you see the RB coming out swinging delivering more to the banks than they asked for or needed. In the long term the moral hazard of such actions is huge, in the short/medium term it still might not be enough.

I have a particular disdain for property spruikers who only a few months ago were forecasting even more price growth because of high migration, low interest rates, lack of supply and (in not so many words) loose lending policies. The first of those has likely disappeared, the second has hit the bottom and will probably go the other way, the third is about to get an AirBnB listing bomb combined with a heap of housing coming online that was being built for those yet to arrive migrants who may now never come. The fourth will be looked at very carefully by the RB during a downturn. Yet they are all saying the virus is a a minor kerfluffle, everything will be back to "normal" soon, forgetting it wasn't normal before. I am picking us to have an Ireland like correction, particularly as unemployment skyrockets.

[Traderwannabe]

Is it possible to open an Australian bank account while residing in NZ?

[King1212]

Don't have that many cash...so...yeahh pretty safe at the moment.

[Valuegrowth]

Given this coming shift in market sentiment, it is time to start thinking about value. Where do we find very attractive stocks (Shares of companies with strong balance sheets)?

With rates going to zero, stocks are good value. People like us don't understand why markets are rallying; we need a better view of how markets work.
What’s the 30 year yield today? 1.35%. Don’t you think stocks are cheap (I mean not overvalued stocks)?

[Cyclical]

Depends on your situation, but you can get 250k guaranteed in Aus (as I understand) and can fairly easily open bank accounts in other countries. I have some in US/Aus and the same as you - mostly in Kiwibank. Kiwibonds and shares in companies that aren't overvalued and provide returns (power companies for instance) would be a good place to put cash.

We don't need a huge property correction in this country for our banks to be near enough to insolvent (60% of all lending in residential lending, 25% of which is interest only?), which is why you see the RB coming out swinging delivering more to the banks than they asked for or needed. In the long term the moral hazard of such actions is huge, in the short/medium term it still might not be enough.

I have a particular disdain for property spruikers who only a few months ago were forecasting even more price growth because of high migration, low interest rates, lack of supply and (in not so many words) loose lending policies. The first of those has likely disappeared, the second has hit the bottom and will probably go the other way, the third is about to get an AirBnB listing bomb combined with a heap of housing coming online that was being built for those yet to arrive migrants who may now never come. The fourth will be looked at very carefully by the RB during a downturn. Yet they are all saying the virus is a a minor kerfluffle, everything will be back to "normal" soon, forgetting it wasn't normal before. I am picking us to have an Ireland like correction, particularly as unemployment skyrockets.

Pretty grim picture you paint there Bobbles. My take on it though is that while there will be a world of pain that most have yet to accept, policy makers will manage to kick the can further down the road for a lot of it, and it'll probably take a revolution before the system is properly fixed/reset, God forbid.

Regarding banks, there is a really good NZ one that is often overlooked...TSB. Old as the hills and solid.

[bull....]

11278

DJI bearish wedge pattern on the hourlies , might play out , might not but worth keeping an eye on. meets the criteria under 50% retracement , declining volume.

[blobbles]

Is it possible to open an Australian bank account while residing in NZ?

Quick google: https://www.thecurrencyshop.co.nz/guides/how-to-open-a-bank-account-in-australia-from-new-zealand

The FCS appears to apply to all deposit accounts in banks that are domiciled in Aus holding AUD: https://www.apra.gov.au/types-of-accounts-covered-under-financial-claims-scheme

[kiwico]

Is it possible to open an Australian bank account while residing in NZ?

I opened my CBA account via ASB, you just have to be "moving" to Australia. This may be a little more difficult now of course.

As and when we can travel again it's very easy opening a NAB and NABTrade account in Oz. Makes it much easier to trade on the ASX.

[bottomfeeder]

Bank fees are high in Aussie, but I spread my term deposits around all the banks, so at least if they start to topple, my so called haircut as specified by the RBNZ won't be as much. Plus it was very hard to put funds into Kiwibonds at .5%. But I but the bullet there, and am increasing my percentage being held in NZ shares. What do you do, nothing will probably bring certainty. Just have to grin and bear it. But am looking forward to getting some competitive quotes to get some work done at home, and on top of that, some eagerness to turn up and complete the job.

[Bobdn]

In my view there could be massive unemployment in the country for years and most New Zealanders have no money saved so you could, sadly, end up being able to pay the tradies with half a sack of potatoes and a pound of tallow.

I see Burger King is insolvent and former pilots are now stacking super market shelves.

I really like these commentators on CNBC. Wall Street thinks the worst might be over for stocks but these guys, all of whom seem to have integrity, disagree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFR0EZ84MiY

Also, I watched this documentary again last night. It's about the 1929 crash and has a lot of original footage and the close relatives of some of the major players. It features John Kenneth Galbraith and the son of Groucho Marx!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAZjlxWNszw

[bull....]

Too-short 'failed lockdown' would be worse outcome for economy in long run, bank warns


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120997347/tooshort-failed-lockdown-would-be-worse-outcome-for-economy-in-long-run-bank-warns

agree with a lot of what westpac saying and agree we should extend lock down another 2 weeks. still doesnt guarantee wont get waves , but the longer time between waves means more chance of a vaccine being found. stimulus coming will only help i reckon if its well targeted and not just creating zombie companies etc

just heard on the bloomberg wire they talking about RBNZ doubling QE soon

[peat]

11278



DJI bearish wedge pattern on the hourlies , might play out , might not but worth keeping an eye on. meets the criteria under 50% retracement , declining volume.


yes I'm seeing the same thing on all the markets so am expecting a surge up on indices and com-dollars etc (risk on) , followed by spike and down to new lows and severe risk off. However of course this is a pretty common view so as you say may not pan out.

I realised our NZ index is doing so well coz of FPH and ATM actually going up during this time.

[Traderwannabe]

Quick google: https://www.thecurrencyshop.co.nz/gu...om-new-zealand (https://www.thecurrencyshop.co.nz/guides/how-to-open-a-bank-account-in-australia-from-new-zealand)

The FCS appears to apply to all deposit accounts in banks that are domiciled in Aus holding AUD: https://www.apra.gov.au/types-of-acc...-claims-scheme (https://www.apra.gov.au/types-of-accounts-covered-under-financial-claims-scheme)

Thank you for that information.
I did try to open a NAB trade account a while ago but couldn't due to the fact I couldn't give an Australian address. I will try again.

Be nice if the NZ government just guaranteed our banks here.

[bull....]

yes I'm seeing the same thing on all the markets so am expecting a surge up on indices and com-dollars etc (risk on) , followed by spike and down to new lows and severe risk off. However of course this is a pretty common view so as you say may not pan out.

I realised our NZ index is doing so well coz of FPH and ATM actually going up during this time.


money printing seems to be inflating everything at the moment even the trash lol

[winner69]

JPM predicts stocks to hit a new all time high within a year

[bottomfeeder]

Cash will be King only for a short time. After that assets such as good property and safer equities will be King. Cash value will be eaten away by inflation, and low interest rates.

[bull....]

Cash will be King only for a short time. After that assets such as good property and safer equities will be King. Cash value will be eaten away by inflation, and low interest rates.

probably need bars on your windows of your house with the inequalities all this money printing is going to cause

[Valuegrowth]

With the amount of stimulus and interest rates are on the floor, some analysts are trying to make bull case for stocks. I am wondering why stocks are going up with wall of worry. I don’t understand how market works. One sector that will benefit is consumer staples. Food manufacturers are well positioned to benefit from COVID-19. There is tremendous growth opportunity for food stocks.

[JBmurc]

Cash will be King only for a short time. After that assets such as good property and safer equities will be King. Cash value will be eaten away by inflation, and low interest rates.

of course wish I sold some of high flyers had more cash near my portfolio highs early FEB(and started buying again weeks ago) .. but had I cashed up early mid march would be worse off than present as my move to 100% Gold stocks have made some very impressive gains over the last couple of weeks if the next few continue to be as good will be back to new highs ... personal would not want to be on the sidelines in cash ..but understand those than have much different investment plans and sectors I wouldn't BUY at this stage... many will get even cheaper IMHO

[Crypto Crude]

Give a man a gun he will rob a bank...
Give a man a bank and he will rob the World... !!!

:cool:cc

[Raz]

Give a man a gun he will rob a bank...
Give a man a bank and he will rob the World... !!!

:cool:cc

All that I have concluded during this lockdown is with QE and Governments prepared to do anything to keep economies afloat I expect a disconnect between share markets and the real economy. Volatility is a traders paradise, who does that suit... The only thing that is clear to me is entrepreneurship is thin on the ground in New Zealand and although infrastructure projects will mask some of the loss in GDP there will be a lot of private wealth destruction out of all of this, New Zealand Inc. and this group in particular will wealth wise be way poorer. I can't see the economy and employment levels bouncing back per Treasury's scenarios, but personally it is time to reset, decide how much cash you need to set aside for a rainy day and look for opportunities, short and longer term, otherwise in real terms you will fall behind.

[kiwico]

I did try to open a NAB trade account a while ago but couldn't due to the fact I couldn't give an Australian address. I will try again.

Do you have a NAB account? If not I'd go for that first and then add the NABTrade account. I had no issues getting both with only an NZ address but then I did open them when on holiday in Oz (which isn't really feasible at the moment...)

[kiwico]

Bank fees are high in Aussie, but I spread my term deposits around all the banks, so at least if they start to topple, my so called haircut as specified by the RBNZ won't be as much.

There are no fees on my NAB account. The CBA account has a A$5 monthly fee but it is easily avoided by moving A$2000 between accounts each month, or to and from my NAB account.

[Balance]

All that I have concluded during this lockdown is with QE and Governments prepared to do anything to keep economies afloat I expect a disconnect between share markets and the real economy. Volatility is a traders paradise, who does that suit... The only thing that is clear to me is entrepreneurship is thin on the ground in New Zealand and although infrastructure projects will mask some of the loss in GDP there will be a lot of private wealth destruction out of all of this, New Zealand Inc. and this group in particular will wealth wise be way poorer. I can't see the economy and employment levels bouncing back per Treasury's scenarios, but personally it is time to reset, decide how much cash you need to set aside for a rainy day and look for opportunities, short and longer term, otherwise in real terms you will fall behind.

Whichever things go, one thing is for sure - interest rates are going to go below the floor as trillions of dollars of stimulus (printed out of thin air with no corresponding productive activity)

so

it really is a matter of time before investors sitting on cash are going to panic (as markets recover - which they will) and flee the cash market in search of yield.

In NZ, there are currently term deposits of $171 billion and saving deposits of $82 billion- total cash of $253 billion*

Imagine what will happen to stock prices when the bank depositors wake up to the drastic drop in interest income and attempt to get better yield - if just 20% of the term deposits ($50 billion) attempt to get better yields via the stock-markets.

* RBNZ - https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/...sits-by-sector

[Bobdn]

Best 15 day period for the S&P 500 going back to 1933. Can't imagine how bad it would be being 100 per cent cash at the moment. Would make me so twitchy.

The late great Jack Bogle said you should never be completely out of the market. He was no market timer but I remember him saying in an interview that before the dot com crash in 2000 he was only 25 per cent in shares. He had some doubts about the nutty prices but also had serious health issues at the time and was preparing for the worst.

I wish he was still alive, would love to know what he would think of the current state of affairs.

[ScrappyO]

Best 15 day period for the S&P 500 going back to 1933. Can't imagine how bad it would be being 100 per cent cash at the moment. Would make me so twitchy.

Never go "FULL CASH"

[ynot]

Not sure why but ASX has turned slightly negative today. Any thoughts on why ?

[Entrep]

Not sure why but ASX has turned slightly negative today. Any thoughts on why ?

What is this colour "red" you refer to?

[Peitro]

https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/economics-research/er20200415BullConsumerSentiment.pdf

released today

[blackcap]

https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/economics-research/er20200415BullConsumerSentiment.pdf

released today

Interesting isn't it. Economies and markets are often on divergent paths.

[Peitro]

Interesting isn't it. Economies and markets are often on divergent paths.

usually the correlation isn't -1!

[ynot]

Oil & Quantas down, also market sentiment turning south. Interesting if they repeat again tomorrow.

Might be our market is due for a dose of reality also instead of blindly following the US .

Westpac report makes sober reading.

[Joshuatree]

No endgame: Silicon Valley facing a bigger crisis than dotcom crash or the GFC (https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/no-endgame-silicon-valley-facing-a-bigger-crisis-than-dotcom-crash-or-the-gfc-20200415-p54jwz.html)

[see weed]

This is one he.l of a dead cat bounce:eek2:.

[Joshuatree]

Glass nearly empty gloomy monday!

'Great Lockdown' to rival Great Depression with 3% hit to global economy, says IMF (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&ved=2ahUKEwjZ4ZCe0-noAhXYyTgGHRWkDF0Q0PADMAV6BAgHEA0&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2 F2020%2Fapr%2F14%2Fgreat-lockdown-coronavirus-to-rival-great-depression-with-3-hit-to-global-economy-says-imf&usg=AOvVaw1T5hZiRAR_Jvo-Nqsc3-C0)

[Balance]

You have to ask one question: “Do you feel lucky?”

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/fed-s-dirty-harry-moment

You want to bet against the Federal Reserve with it’s unlimited monetary arsenal?

Like the bear hedge funds who are licking their wounds after last week record rise on the US market?

Excerpt : The Fed is now arguably the biggest asset manager in the world (with over US$6 trillion in AUM) with one ace up its sleeve: it has never-ending capital through its unlimited ability to print money and can never, therefore, really lose.

If the market wants to try and bet against the Fed, the Fed will simply buy it--and I mean all of it.

Hence the aphorism, "Don't fight the Fed!"

[Balance]

Hence the aphorism, "Don't fight the Fed!"

By the time that the Fed is finished (which is never), your money in the bank will be worthless - that's the long and short of it.

[Baa_Baa]

There’s a few exhaustion doji (indecision/reversal) on the charts today. Haven’t had a chance to do a thorough look yet. Check your own favourite shares for a candle with a long tail above or an indecision doji, a simple cross. Early days but DOW futures down a bit at the moment. Current V shaped recovery looks like madness and confounding many here on numerous threads, madness down, madness up. Looking for the little clues. Market is manic, when it looks too good to be true, it is too good to be true. If this reverses to new lows it will be the biggest bear trap of all time and have scammed so many opportunists out of their money.

GLA

[Valuegrowth]

The coronavirus stock market rally was making progress. What sell-off! Jeff Bezos gets $6.4 Billion Richer.
Few stocks are hitting all time high. Amazon is the first major company to rebound from the coronavirus market selloff. One thing is sure. Market may have volatility but there will be individual winning stocks throughout the world.

[Entrep]

NZD rolling over too, expect red tomorrow.

[Bobdn]

Yes, let's hope it's a blood bath for a good six to 12 months. I've still got 2/3rds of my cash pile to go. I was beginning to think it was going to be December 2018 all over again.

[Hoop]

The rally has been huge...the volume has been huge...the bear roaming the marketplace is huge...This correction (rally) momentum seems to be running out of legs..I can't see a happy outcome . You have to have great understanding of Bear Market investment strategy to play with bears???
The best Bear Market Investment Strategy a small reward combined with a good night sleep + the lowest risk factor.....walk away & stay away.
Disc :- 5% in ..95% cash on TD

[Oberon]

The worm may have finally turned...

[King1212]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/121045060/winston-peters-says-country-expected-to-move-to-level-3-next-week

Keep wishing the market down.... hahha

[Entrep]

A bit early for bears to be calling victory (I am a bear)

[ynot]

So much for the L shape recovery. The bottom is in and she's a V ! (Not)

[Balance]

Cash in the bank? What will it be worth when hyper-inflation takes hold and asset values (especially of inflation hedge businesses) increase hugely?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-stocks-now-says-investing-legend-burton-malkiel-51586961967?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

" .....we are throwing an unprecedented amount of money at this problem. This is very close to modern monetary theory . The government is sending out checks and [funding them] with bonds, and the Fed buys the bonds." Federal Reserve prints the money, the government accesses the money by issuing bonds, gives the money out and the Federal Reserve buys the bonds!

" .....when there’s too much money around, even when production is going well, there’s always a chance of inflation. Milton Friedman said inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. We’ve had unprecedented [monetary] policies throughout the world."

[moka]

Sharing on sharetrader. ASB has just changed margin lending ratios - interesting. Lots of Australian ratios removed as well but not included in this post. Only one increase which is ATM.





To keep you informed about your ASB Margin Lending facility, we’ve provided a summary of changes to our New Zealand and Australian approved securities lists below. These changes are effective on and from Thursday 23th April 2020.










Lending Ratios That Will Be Increased





The a2 Milk Company
ATM.NZX
Increase from 50% to 60%










Lending Ratios That Will Be Decreased





Auckland Airport
AIA.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 55%


Argosy Property Trust
ARG.NZX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


Briscoe Group
BGP.NZX
Decrease from 60% to 50%


SmartShares Europe ETF
EUF.NZX
Decrease from 55% to 40%


Genesis Energy
GNE.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 60%


Green Cross Health
GXH.NZX
Decrease from 50% to 40%


Heartland Group Holdings
HGH.NZX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


Infratil
IFT.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 60%


Kingfish
KFL.NZX
Decrease from 60% to 50%


Kathmandu
KMD.NZX
Decrease from 60% to 50%


Kiwi Property Group
KPG.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 60%


Metlifecare
MET.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 55%


Smartshares Australian Mid Cap ETF
MZY.NZX
Decrease from 60% to 50%


New Zealand King Salmon Investments
NZK.NZX
Decrease from 55% to 40%


New Zealand Refining Company
NZR.NZX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


Restaurant Brands New Zealand
RBD.NZX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


Ryman Healthcare
RYM.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 55%


Sky City Entertainment Group
SKC.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 55%


Skellerup Holdings
SKL.NZX
Decrease from 60% to 50%


Steel & Tube Holdings
STU.NZX
Decrease from 60% to 50%


Summerset Group Holdings
SUM.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 55%


Trustpower
TPW.NZX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


The Warehouse Group
WHS.NZX
Decrease from 60% to 50%


Z Energy
ZEL.NZX
Decrease from 70% to 55%


Blackmores
BKL.ASX
Decrease from 60% to 45%


Challenger
CGF.ASX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


Collins Foods
CKF.ASX
Decrease from 55% to 45%


Cochlear
COH.ASX
Decrease from 70% to 60%


CSR
CSR.ASX
Decrease from 70% to 60%


Crown Resorts
CWN.ASX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


Nufarm
NUF.ASX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


Oil Search
OSH.ASX
Decrease from 65% to 55%


Scentre Group
SCG.ASX
Decrease from 70% to 60%
















Lending Ratio Removals





Abano Healthcare
ABA.NZX


Air New Zealand
AIR.NZX


Hallenstein Glasson Holdings
HLG.NZX


Michael Hill International
MHJ.NZX


Sky Network Television
SKT.NZX


Tourism Holdings
THL.NZX


Vista Group International
VGL.NZX

[Entrep]

The Fed has pushed corporate bond ETFs back to February highs. lol

[Balance]

Interesting. Lending Ratio Removals group an ignominious bunch. Seems somewhat tough on HLG to be lumped in with this lot.

Sometimes it is because the bank has reached its lending limit on the stock.

[petty]

Excuse my ignorance. What does lending ratio's refer to here?

[arc]

Looks like they have run the numbers.. with the Lending Ratio Removal group strongly indicated as heading for Lemmings territory.
Interesting that HLG are in it though ??, would not have thought that, perhaps insider info happening here or they are the bankers for hlg??.

[Balance]

Looks like they have run the numbers.. with the Lending Ratio Removal group strongly indicated as heading for Lemmings territory.
Interesting that HLG are in it though ??, would not have thought that, perhaps insider info happening here or they are the bankers for hlg??.

HLG has no debts.

[Valuegrowth]

02-year Yield: 0.203
10-year Yield: 0.630
30-year Yield: 1.260
BoE also running at 0.1% currently, who knows if it will drop to possibly 0% even?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917377/dalio-says-investors--crazy--to-hold-government-bonds-now-917377.html
Dalio Says Investors 'Crazy' to Hold Government Bonds Now

It is pretty simple. The overall trend toward lower interest rates and bond yields is often credited with supporting higher prices in the stock market. As current bull market extended for a long time, stock prices of many growth stocks have extended beyond their business value. During last decade investors flocked to expensive and high-flying growth stocks. Now growth is going to slow down for growth companies except few. Will the next decade be a better one for value investors?

Recent developments indicate that for value investors, “the time to despair may be ending and there is a hope”.

[kiora]

The percentage that ASB Securities will lend against that share for margin lending. Like a Loan to Value Ratio.

No FPH strange?

[Cyclical]

Sometimes it is because the bank has reached its lending limit on the stock.

Or could it be they consider HLG to be way over valued at the moment?

[moka]

No FPH strange?
These are only lending ratios that have changed. FPH remains unchanged at 70%.
https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/asb-securities/new-zealand-approved-securities.html

[carrom74]

Sometimes it is because the bank has reached its lending limit on the stock.
Just checked their bank and its ANZ- from the annual report Balance

[kiora]

These are only lending ratios that have changed. FPH remains unchanged at 70%.
https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/asb-securities/new-zealand-approved-securities.html

So better than ATM @60 %:)

[Balance]

Something for bears to mull over with their coffee (and cash in the bank) this morning.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-for-scenario-analysis-heres-how-the-stock-market-could-boom-this-year-2020-04-15

Get ready for the biggest stock rally yet post lockdown.

[Crypto Crude]

Something for bears to mull over with their coffee (and cash in the bank) this morning.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-for-scenario-analysis-heres-how-the-stock-market-could-boom-this-year-2020-04-15

Get ready for the biggest stock rally yet post lockdown.

This outlook is one of near total insanity...
I wouldn't even put a 1% chance of this outlook happening...
Things are going to be bleak for a long time...
Things like international travel are well off the cards...
There is no pent up demand.. people are using all their money just to survive not working and paying Bill's...
The debt crunch is going to hit, people wont be able to loan money as easy now.... unemployment is exploding and lots of businesses will go under...
Balance is delusional and usually wrong...
:cool:cc

[Balance]

So very very satisfying to have some posters here in Ignore - garbage posts and the stench belong in the trash can.

:t_up:

[Aaron]

Something for bears to mull over with their coffee (and cash in the bank) this morning.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-time-for-scenario-analysis-heres-how-the-stock-market-could-boom-this-year-2020-04-15

Get ready for the biggest stock rally yet post lockdown.

The article says that 65% of the current rally is a short squeeze. Bearish investors getting it wrong and having to buy shares before they lose too much. Agreed the unprecedented money printing makes currency worthless eventually. When faith is lost it could happen quickly, maybe already has and the rally is proof of that. But we only went into lockdown at the end of March, the markets might only have a good idea of the effects of the lockdown when US companies report Q2 earnings and recovery from the rebound from the lockdown in Q3. Historically markets have had a second leg down as reality hits. Ironic Bull is a Bear and Balance is a Doomsayer (or a cheerleader for the markets depending on which way you look at it.)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I have heard from retail brokers that they have been experiencing 3-4 times the normal number of new applications for the last few weeks. I have also had many people enquire about investing and how to get started in the last week. Doesn't fill me with confidence based on the usual sayings.

Also likely people are bored at home and can't gamble on sports, so the stock market is taking its place.

[Balance]

The article says that 65% of the current rally is a short squeeze. Bearish investors getting it wrong and having to buy shares before they lose too much. Agreed the unprecedented money printing makes currency worthless eventually. When faith is lost it could happen quickly, maybe already has and the rally is proof of that. But we only went into lockdown at the end of March, the markets might only have a good idea of the effects of the lockdown when US companies report Q2 earnings and recovery from the rebound from the lockdown in Q3. Historically markets have had a second leg down as reality hits. Ironic Bull is a Bear and Balance is a Doomsayer (or a cheerleader for the markets depending on which way you look at it.)

Doomsayer? A person who predicts disaster?

Come on, Aaron - I am neither a bull nor a bear if you care to read my posts - just a cautious investor who attempts to provide some balance and perspective on the views out there.

You should be aware by now that there are certain posters on this site who are posting absolute doom and gloom while happy to buy stocks from the panicked stricken inexperienced or naive investors to flick out for a quick profit. One was caught out just two days ago and banned.

[workingdad]

So very very satisfying to have some posters here in Ignore - garbage posts and the stench belong in the trash can.

:t_up:

Not sure about that, maybe just keen avoid fueling conflict and the deeply help opinions on each side of the fence.

I’m in the bear camp, bewildered at the disconnect between markets and economies. Regardless of monetary policies it’s hard to imagine a world in a month or two that isn’t suffering on many levels. There are so many unknowns but one thing that can be factored in is unemployment and business losses, people won’t be spending as much (even the ones that still have jobs) and relative to NZ the hit on GDP re tourism and tourist spending is in itself significant.

Strange to say this but the overvalued share market is not an indicator on the economy but at some stage I imagine the two will align.

[Joshuatree]

So very very satisfying to have some posters here in Ignore - garbage posts and the stench belong in the trash can.

:t_up:

Yes im at a loss , that with continual language like that why you are still around.:confused:

[Balance]

Not sure about that, maybe just keen avoid fueling conflict and the deeply help opinions on each side of the fence.

I’m in the bear camp, bewildered at the disconnect between markets and economies. Regardless of monetary policies it’s hard to imagine a world in a month or two that isn’t suffering on many levels. There are so many unknowns but one thing that can be factored in is unemployment and business losses, people won’t be spending as much (even the ones that still have jobs) and relative to NZ the hit on GDP re tourism and tourist spending is in itself significant.

Strange to say this but the overvalued share market is not an indicator on the economy but at some stage I imagine the two will align.


Markets can remain irrational longer than you can withstand the strain.

[Biscuit]

There are two equally rational ways of looking at the market at the moment. Its arguably relatively over-priced (recession, job loss blah blah) and it is arguably relatively under-priced {low interest rates, QE blah blah}. In the short term though, the market is driven by psychology.

[workingdad]

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can withstand the strain.

Much like the wife...... we are therefore well and truly...... haha

[clip]

There are two equally rational ways of looking at the market at the moment. Its arguably relatively over-priced (recession, job loss blah blah) and it is arguably relatively under-priced {low interest rates, QE blah blah}. In the short term though, the market is driven by psychology.

I agree with that, follow the sentiment.. US stocks up again overnight, futures up, US putting together plans for gradually re-opening from 1st of May, I suspect we will move to a level 3.5 on Monday.. I don't believe a huge crash is coming in the next week. Maybe in a month, but not selling anything I've bought in the last month yet.

[Aaron]

By the time that the Fed is finished (which is never), your money in the bank will be worthless - that's the long and short of it.

I actually agree with your statement but I am also a bit of a doom merchant myself. Anyone buying or selling shares based on posts by anonymous posters on this website should think about paying for a stock broker or financial advisor. I should too. There don't seem to be a lot of facts or figures posted on this site other than Snoopy's analysis (apologies to all other posters who do provide some facts and figures) but it is interesting to read people's views and ideas.

Although to be fair you may have tipped me into buying more shares in MMH, opinion article this morning in the herald regarding the move points out none of the infrastructure projects are towards the port move and that govt might be too cash strapped in the future to help with it. MMH has held up pretty well but I imagine it would only be on expected/hoped for growth from the shift of POAs business north, which does not seem to be progressing.

[sb9]

Some good news on the horizon perhaps....

Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment


https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

[Biscuit]

I agree with that, follow the sentiment.. US stocks up again overnight, futures up, US putting together plans for gradually re-opening from 1st of May, I suspect we will move to a level 3.5 on Monday.. I don't believe a huge crash is coming in the next week. Maybe in a month, but not selling anything I've bought in the last month yet.

I don't really go with the sentiment though. I bought into several shares (SKC, HGH, SCL, SEK, ANZ, DGL, SPK) in the last month when everyone was panicking but now am selling down some of the shares I bought (HGH, SKC) as I don't trust the current "exuberance".

[Balance]

There are two equally rational ways of looking at the market at the moment. Its arguably relatively over-priced (recession, job loss blah blah) and it is arguably relatively under-priced {low interest rates, QE blah blah}. In the short term though, the market is driven by psychology.

Good on you!

[blackcap]

Word of warning... Wall St up 635 points post market close on news Gilead Therapy effective in treating Wuhan Flu

https://twitter.com/SaraWalker_IG/status/1250904305332346882

[bottomfeeder]

Doomsayer? A person who predicts disaster?

Come on, Aaron - I am neither a bull nor a bear if you care to read my posts - just a cautious investor who attempts to provide some balance and perspective on the views out there.

You should be aware by now that there are certain posters on this site who are posting absolute doom and gloom while happy to buy stocks from the panicked stricken inexperienced or naive investors to flick out for a quick profit. One was caught out just two days ago and banned.

Who was banned and by whom.

[Entrep]

You should be aware by now that there are certain posters on this site who are posting absolute doom and gloom while happy to buy stocks from the panicked stricken inexperienced or naive investors to flick out for a quick profit. One was caught out just two days ago and banned.

I wondered what had happened. What was the proof of that though?

[Balance]

I wondered what had happened. What was the proof of that though?


Who was banned and by whom.

Go through the Metlife thread and you will find out who it was.

[bottomfeeder]

Oops will have to be careful, didn't think Bull could have that much clout that he could have manipulated the market. Whoever banned him may have been a bit sensitive.
Obviously nobody follows or pays attention to what I buy and sell as is shown by the CVT thread, what a boomer for someone.
Maybe they are contrarian to me, probably do well on that tack.

[Balance]

Word of warning... Wall St up 635 points post market close on news Gilead Therapy effective in treating Wuhan Flu

https://twitter.com/SaraWalker_IG/status/1250904305332346882

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-futures-soar-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-report-51587079853?refsec=coronavirus

Should be more news today on the treatment and if there's verification, we could be looking at the MOTHER OF ALL RALLIES *on US market tomorrow!

Futures are absolutely soaring now - up 836 points and heading higher.

Bearish hedge funds are going too have to cover their shorts - good luck!

* - just teasing, guys.

[Balance]

Another positive development.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1269540/Coronavirus-news-oxford-university-new-vaccine-test-results-trials-cure-latest-udpdates

Oxford University moving to human trials for its covid-19 vaccine after successful trials with animals.

Panel of experts confident vaccine could be ready for use by September 2020.

[bottomfeeder]

Oh god made from chimpanzee antibodies, sounds like it will introduce a new covid-ebola 20 virus.

[davflaws]

Oh god made from chimpanzee antibodies, sounds like it will introduce a new covid-ebola 20 virus.

I hope you are joking - the antivaccers will pick up any"fact", relevant or otherwise.

[Balance]

I hope you are joking - the antivaccers will pick up any"fact", relevant or otherwise.

They are welcome not to be vaccinated for covid-19 when a vaccine is available.

Think they will be happy not to be vaccinated or be refused vaccination?

[GOAT]

All i'm reading are articles about economic recession and depression, yet the markets are going up and up.. It would appear that the stock market doesn't factor in unemployment and consumer confidence. I'm still weary, so i'm holding off putting stacks of money in, instead I'm just buying shares that I think are good value and will do well in long term.

[Timesurfer]

They are welcome not to be vaccinated for covid-19 when a vaccine is available.

Think they will be happy not to be vaccinated or be refused vaccination?

I dunno there are a lot of people out there running around with the virus with no idea they have it - do I feel lucky?

[blackcap]

All i'm reading are articles about economic recession and depression, yet the markets are going up and up.. It would appear that the stock market doesn't factor in unemployment and consumer confidence. I'm still weary, so i'm holding off putting stacks of money in, instead I'm just buying shares that I think are good value and will do well in long term.

Some stock markets like unemployment. It means cheaper labour and bigger profits for business. It also means lowering interest rates. Stockmarkets and economies are often on divergent paths.

[arc]

Oh god made from chimpanzee antibodies, sounds like it will introduce a new covid-ebola 20 virus.

when you get an irresistible urge to grab a banana and swing from the power poles...

[Entrep]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-futures-soar-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-report-51587079853?refsec=coronavirus

Should be more news today on the treatment and if there's verification, we could be looking at the MOTHER OF ALL RALLIES *on US market tomorrow!

Futures are absolutely soaring now - up 836 points and heading higher.

Bearish hedge funds are going too have to cover their shorts - good luck!

* - just teasing, guys.

Have a read and don't rule out anything in this market https://www.zerohedge.com/health/gilead-pours-cold-water-report-sent-market-soaring-anecdotal-reports-no-statistical-power

[arc]

I dunno there are a lot of people out there running around with the virus with no idea they have it - do I feel lucky?

If your right then level 3 will bring a S**t storm of new cases

[Oberon]

As Baa Baa said, if it looks too good to be true...

I stand by my reasoning. We haven't seen the other shoe drop yet. Greed is rather predictable and right now, the markets are inundated with it.

By the time US states can start to look to the next phase of their recovery, the economic data will have provided a more complete picture of the damage wrought. Predictions and estimates will become reality and heads will need to come out of the sand.

Dangerous market at the moment. There is every chance I could be wrong, of course - it's only an opinion. If I missed out, well - I live to invest another day. But, my gut instinct is telling me something is off. Retail could get hurt badly if/when institutional see the party is over.

[Entrep]

Buying now, when prices are undisputedly high and so divorced from the economic reality, just because there is no better option/place to park your funds/money, AND we are so so very early in this entire process, without any real data as of yet, seems extremely reckless.

[Oberon]

Buying now, when prices are undisputedly high and so divorced from the economic reality, just because there is no better option/place to park your funds/money, AND we are so so very early in this entire process, without any real data as of yet, seems extremely reckless.

Well said. "Very early" being the operative phrase.

[macduffy]

Buying now, when prices are undisputedly high and so divorced from the economic reality, just because there is no better option/place to park your funds/money, AND we are so so very early in this entire process, without any real data as of yet, seems extremely reckless.

I agree, Entrep. Too many people at home with nothing to do - and the TAB closed?

Seriously, I think we're in for another downleg on this rollercoaster before too long.

:(

[see weed]

Decided to cancel 4 orders today. Got sick of waiting. ASB said it is the NZX, cannot handle the volume. So I said they should update their computers:confused:.

[Valuegrowth]

All i'm reading are articles about economic recession and depression, yet the markets are going up and up.. It would appear that the stock market doesn't factor in unemployment and consumer confidence. I'm still weary, so i'm holding off putting stacks of money in, instead I'm just buying shares that I think are good value and will do well in long term.

Many top global equity strategists recommended momentum and growth stocks in recent years. But now some of them see conditions ripe for a value rally. They are making a big call on the beaten-up style of investing after the stock market’s rapid and violent selloff in February and March. Perhaps a solid company with attractive valuation is more trustworthy. Intelligent investors will avoid overvalued extended stocks. Their mantra is buying a great business at a great price.

[Leemsip]

I think a big leg down coming too. Talking to friends in the private sector and hearing horror stories of lay offs etc. Have to wait for this to sink in i guess. June july?

[Baa_Baa]

I think a big leg down coming too. Talking to friends in the private sector and hearing horror stories of lay offs etc. Have to wait for this to sink in i guess. June july?

Not just private sector, public sector as well, mass layoffs just around the corner. No recent precedent, this is getting really very bad for normal folks who have no business, no jobs. Really really bad. It's just beginning, save the population and **** the economy. Tough decisions but the chooks come home to roost soon enough.

[Balance]

European markets charging ahead this morning (their time).

Maybe, just maybe the markets are telling us all something - that the economic numbers & statistics coming out are not nearly as bad as the Great Depression to be as articulated by the doomsayers, and priced into markets?

And with central banks & governments pledging to print as much money as required to cushion their economies, the smart money is getting ahead of the tsunami of cheap money chasing real assets (like equities) when negative interest rates bite ... hard?

Bear in mind that markets are supposed to look ahead.

[JeremyALD]

Decided to cancel 4 orders today. Got sick of waiting. ASB said it is the NZX, cannot handle the volume. So I said they should update their computers:confused:.

ASB securities seriously needs an upgrade. With the fees they charge you think theyd be able to. You can't even pull announcements on ASX or PDFs on NZX, it's ridiculous.

[Entrep]

Can’t see inflation with so many people out of work and oil at $18 or under

[nztx]

Can’t see inflation with so many people out of work and oil at $18 or under

which in turn suggests Govt & the RB will have to be very very careful in sucking surplus ca$h out of the economy
& in any tax increases on a very reduced tax base, to avoid potentially a very black depressed economy...

[moka]

European markets charging ahead this morning (their time).

Maybe, just maybe the markets are telling us all something - that the economic numbers & statistics coming out are not nearly as bad as the Great Depression to be as articulated by the doomsayers, and priced into markets?

And with central banks & governments pledging to print as much money as required to cushion their economies, the smart money is getting ahead of the tsunami of cheap money chasing real assets (like equities) when negative interest rates bite ... hard?

Bear in mind that markets are supposed to look ahead.

And let us not forget the Hanover Finance advertisements on TV which ran several times each night late in 2007 saying, "This One Weather update is brought to you by Hanover, a New Zealand business with the size and strength to withstand any conditions."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10774506

[moka]

I’m in the bear camp, bewildered at the disconnect between markets and economies. Regardless of monetary policies it’s hard to imagine a world in a month or two that isn’t suffering on many levels. There are so many unknowns but one thing that can be factored in is unemployment and business losses, people won’t be spending as much (even the ones that still have jobs) and relative to NZ the hit on GDP re tourism and tourist spending is in itself significant.

Strange to say this but the overvalued share market is not an indicator on the economy but at some stage I imagine the two will align.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer explained the paradox of a stock market that is heating up while the state of the economy appears to be crumbling amid a health crisis and economic shutdown in the United States.
“At the end of the day, the stock market’s made up of big, huge companies, not the small- to medium-sized businesses that are the backbone of our economy. And it’s the big dogs with pristine balance sheets and gigantic scale that can survive this lockdown.”
The Dow managed to have its best week since 1938 because the stock average is not representative of the broader economy, Cramer said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jim-cramer-on-mad-money-viral-pic-seething-anger-for-wall-street.html?recirc=taboolainternal

(https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jim-cramer-on-mad-money-viral-pic-seething-anger-for-wall-street.html?recirc=taboolainternal)The contrast between a roaring stock market and an obliterated job market does tell you a lot about what’s happening at this moment, which is an opportunity for the rich to get richer and for the poor to get poorer. The coronavirus crisis and another round of QE is another huge opportunity for a massive transfer of wealth to the rich just like the GFC was, as history has shown us.

In truth, the story that QE was about encouraging investment and boosting employment and growth was always a fantastical yarn designed to disguise what was really going on - a massive transfer of wealth to the rich.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/397197-quantitative-easing-money-banks/

[kiora]

CNBC’s Jim Cramer explained the paradox of a stock market that is heating up while the state of the economy appears to be crumbling amid a health crisis and economic shutdown in the United States.
“At the end of the day, the stock market’s made up of big, huge companies, not the small- to medium-sized businesses that are the backbone of our economy. And it’s the big dogs with pristine balance sheets and gigantic scale that can survive this lockdown.”
The Dow managed to have its best week since 1938 because the stock average is not representative of the broader economy, Cramer said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jim-cramer-on-mad-money-viral-pic-seething-anger-for-wall-street.html?recirc=taboolainternal

(https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jim-cramer-on-mad-money-viral-pic-seething-anger-for-wall-street.html?recirc=taboolainternal)The contrast between a roaring stock market and an obliterated job market does tell you a lot about what’s happening at this moment, which is an opportunity for the rich to get richer and for the poor to get poorer. The coronavirus crisis and another round of QE is another huge opportunity for a massive transfer of wealth to the rich just like the GFC was, as history has shown us.

In truth, the story that QE was about encouraging investment and boosting employment and growth was always a fantastical yarn designed to disguise what was really going on - a massive transfer of wealth to the rich.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/397197-quantitative-easing-money-banks/
Yep totally the Blackrock banksters in charge of the hen house
Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
In what is the most thorough critique of the BlackRock appointment to date, a March 27 letter from the Sunrise Movement to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted: “By giving BlackRock full control of this debt buyout program, the Fed is further entwining the roles of government and private actors. In doing so, it makes BlackRock even more systemically important to the financial system. Yet BlackRock is not subject to the regulatory scrutiny of even smaller systemically important financial institutions.”

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/04...takes-command/
Yep the biggest whale of all banksters. What are they buying up here now?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-...f=art_readmore

[Biscuit]

(https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jim-cramer-on-mad-money-viral-pic-seething-anger-for-wall-street.html?recirc=taboolainternal)The contrast between a roaring stock market and an obliterated job market does tell you a lot about what’s happening at this moment, which is an opportunity for the rich to get richer and for the poor to get poorer. / (https://www.rt.com/op-ed/397197-quantitative-easing-money-banks/)

Which is bad for society and will likely come back to bite us all. But, in the meantime, its an opportunity to make some money so I would recommend not fretting about it and just make some money.

[bull....]

CNBC’s Jim Cramer explained the paradox of a stock market that is heating up while the state of the economy appears to be crumbling amid a health crisis and economic shutdown in the United States.
“At the end of the day, the stock market’s made up of big, huge companies, not the small- to medium-sized businesses that are the backbone of our economy. And it’s the big dogs with pristine balance sheets and gigantic scale that can survive this lockdown.”
The Dow managed to have its best week since 1938 because the stock average is not representative of the broader economy, Cramer said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jim-cramer-on-mad-money-viral-pic-seething-anger-for-wall-street.html?recirc=taboolainternal

(https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/jim-cramer-on-mad-money-viral-pic-seething-anger-for-wall-street.html?recirc=taboolainternal)The contrast between a roaring stock market and an obliterated job market does tell you a lot about what’s happening at this moment, which is an opportunity for the rich to get richer and for the poor to get poorer. The coronavirus crisis and another round of QE is another huge opportunity for a massive transfer of wealth to the rich just like the GFC was, as history has shown us.

In truth, the story that QE was about encouraging investment and boosting employment and growth was always a fantastical yarn designed to disguise what was really going on - a massive transfer of wealth to the rich.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/397197-quantitative-easing-money-banks/

QE nothing more than bailing out the rich who by the way are the biggest owners of the stockmarket.


As The Bottom 60% Lose Lives & Livelihoods, The Fed & The Top 10% Cheer Market Rebound
The pandemic is a stark, brutal spotlight on income/wealth inequality in America: while the top 10% who own the majority of the nation's wealth cheer the Federal Reserve's relentless pimping of the stock market, the bottom 60%--America's vast underclass of low-paid, marginalized, gig-economy, Amazon warehouse precarious proletariats (precariats)-- are losing their livelihoods and tragically, their lives as the pandemic ravages the ranks of those who cannot work at home and those whose health is impaired by the ceaseless struggle to survive in Unequal America

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/bottom-60-lose-lives-livelihoods-fed-top-10-cheer-market-rebound

[Leftfield]

QE nothing more than bailing out the rich who by the way are the biggest owners of the stockmarket.


SSSooo with the USA Fed backing QE, then the stock market is a safe haven (even for small investors) !?

[bull....]

SSSooo with the USA Fed backing QE, then the stock market is a safe haven (even for small investors) !?

well its a confidence game isnt it , the fed trying to maintain confidence in the markets because they dont want a health crisis and a financial crisis all at once. so i guess us small fry are piggy backing on this. as for the long term time will tell when you look at the size of capitalisation of the markets i dont think the fed can print that much ? history shows in 1929 the biggest bankers got together and propped the stockmarket then too but in the months ahead it only stalled the down ward march. so time will tell. virus cure would negate all negatives i believe

[Leftfield]

Thanks Bull. Agree. We need to keep our eyes and our minds open for all eventualities.

[Balance]

well its a confidence game isnt it , the fed trying to maintain confidence in the markets because they dont want a health crisis and a financial crisis all at once. so i guess us small fry are piggy backing on this. as for the long term time will tell when you look at the size of capitalisation of the markets i dont think the fed can print that much ? history shows in 1929 the biggest bankers got together and propped the stockmarket then too but in the months ahead it only stalled the down ward march. so time will tell. virus cure would negate all negatives i believe

The banks collectively do not and will never have one thing - the ability of the Federal Reserve & Central Banks to print unlimited amount of money.

[bull....]

The banks collectively do not and will never have one thing - the ability of the Federal Reserve & Central Banks to print unlimited amount of money.

the size of the US stock market is 32 trillion , 32 trillion just for the stock market and the bond market is even bigger do you really believe they will print these sorts of figures? by the way the fed is actually scaling back its repo now which was the root cause of the run up in stock prices from october last year. Also stock buy backs wont support prices any longer as its polltically wrong to do that now. So one has to figure out if they believe your view of money printing for ever with the end result being the fed owns most of the financial markets and the disconnect between reality for business and stock prices becomes insane and ultimately tax payers foot the bill for business collapse or the view that the money printing and fed action is just to smooth out the bear and the natural business cycle will take its course.

[Balance]

the size of the US stock market is 32 trillion , 32 trillion just for the stock market and the bond market is even bigger do you really believe they will print these sorts of figures? by the way the fed is actually scaling back its repo now which was the root cause of the run up in stock prices from october last year. Also stock buy backs wont support prices any longer as its polltically wrong to do that now. So one has to figure out if they believe your view of money printing for ever with the end result being the fed owns most of the financial markets and the disconnect between reality for business and stock prices becomes insane and ultimately tax payers foot the bill for business collapse or the view that the money printing and fed action is just to smooth out the bear and the natural business cycle will take its course.

Here's your answer.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/why-the-fed-went-nuclear-with-qe-infinity-20200324-p54d8x

Why the Fed went nuclear with QE Infinity

It took eight days for the Federal Reserve to go from QE of $US700 billion ($1.19 trillion) to unlimited buying of bonds to stave off an economic and financial crisis.

Mar 24, 2020

Forget the bazooka. The Federal Reserve has gone nuclear.

[arc]

Here's your answer.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/why-the-fed-went-nuclear-with-qe-infinity-20200324-p54d8x

Why the Fed went nuclear with QE Infinity

It took eight days for the Federal Reserve to go from QE of $US700 billion ($1.19 trillion) to unlimited buying of bonds to stave off an economic and financial crisis.

Mar 24, 2020

Forget the bazooka. The Federal Reserve has gone nuclear.

Well, thats going to shoot capitalism in the head...

[Balance]

Well, thats going to shoot capitalism in the head...

We can not control what the Federal Reserve does - we can decide what to do however in response.

Stock markets are up two weeks in a row - ‘don’t fight the fed’!

[Entrep]

We can not control what the Federal Reserve does - we can decide what to do however in response.

Stock markets are up two weeks in a row - ‘don’t fight the fed’!

Or just stay out of the market and get see more data/see where this madness ends? Sounds like a serious case of fomo wouldn't you say?

[moka]

Here's your answer.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/why-the-fed-went-nuclear-with-qe-infinity-20200324-p54d8x

Why the Fed went nuclear with QE Infinity

It took eight days for the Federal Reserve to go from QE of $US700 billion ($1.19 trillion) to unlimited buying of bonds to stave off an economic and financial crisis.

Mar 24, 2020

Forget the bazooka. The Federal Reserve has gone nuclear.
Thanks for posting the link Balance. Unfortunately I couldn't access it to find out why the Fed went nuclear with QE Infinity but another site says:

Now, the Fed went totally berserk just within one week from the QE1! It means two things.
First, the previous measures turned out to be ineffective. Told ya so! You cannot stop the health crisis with monetary policy.
Second, the pace and scale of the current crisis is shockingly fast.
But now, the economy is frozen

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-the-fed-going-nuclear-help-the-economy-and-gold-202003261627

[Balance]

Thanks for posting the link Balance. Unfortunately I couldn't access it to find out why the Fed went nuclear with QE Infinity but another site says:

Now, the Fed went totally berserk just within one week from the QE1! It means two things.
First, the previous measures turned out to be ineffective. Told ya so! You cannot stop the health crisis with monetary policy.
Second, the pace and scale of the current crisis is shockingly fast.
But now, the economy is frozen

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-the-fed-going-nuclear-help-the-economy-and-gold-202003261627

Article dated 26 March - probably one of the doomsday articles which contributed to markets falling like a stone.

Then, we have had outstanding gains in the last two weeks - so what are the markets telling us?

[janner]

Article dated 26 March - probably one of the doomsday articles which contributed to markets falling like a stone.

Then, we have had outstanding gains in the last two weeks - so what are the markets telling us?

The market is telling us to not be taken in by all of these so called " Experts ".
Do your own research.. Make your decisions... On your own.
What better teacher to learn from ?...

[kiora]

OR that the banksters are in control
All they needed to do is give the tree a serious shake and are now hoovering up the cream with all their cheap money
Who will end up with all the cream?
The investors running in fear or???

Be very careful,the algorithms are coming for your shares too
" Algorithmic trading has also been linked to significant market volatility. While quality control measures can help prevent losses owing to poorly defined or coded algorithms, investors should be aware of the dangers of giving up control and letting computers do all of the work."
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-algorithmic-trading.aspx
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/101014/basics-algorithmic-trading-concepts-and-examples.asp

[Balance]

Thanks for posting the link Balance. Unfortunately I couldn't access it to find out why the Fed went nuclear with QE Infinity but another site says:

Now, the Fed went totally berserk just within one week from the QE1! It means two things.
First, the previous measures turned out to be ineffective. Told ya so! You cannot stop the health crisis with monetary policy.
Second, the pace and scale of the current crisis is shockingly fast.
But now, the economy is frozen

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/will-the-fed-going-nuclear-help-the-economy-and-gold-202003261627

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-drug-may-cure-covid-110630518.html

Another doomsday article to reinforce the one above.

What’s the common thread between the two articles?

Obviously written by those who have shorted the markets and pushing their points of view.

Which is fine - readers just need to be aware of the agendas behind the articles and read objectively.

They could be right or they could be wrong - only you can decide whether to act in concert or at variance with their agendas

[macduffy]

OR that the banksters are in control
All they needed to do is give the tree a serious shake and are now hoovering up the cream with all their cheap money
Who will end up with all the cream?
The investors running in fear or???

Be very careful,the algorithms are coming for your shares too
" Algorithmic trading has also been linked to significant market volatility. While quality control measures can help prevent losses owing to poorly defined or coded algorithms, investors should be aware of the dangers of giving up control and letting computers do all of the work."
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-algorithmic-trading.aspx
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/101014/basics-algorithmic-trading-concepts-and-examples.asp

Don't they realise that all that cream will quickly clog up their Hoovers?

;)

[kiora]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-drug-may-cure-covid-110630518.html

Another doomsday article to reinforce the one above.

What’s the common thread between the two articles?

Obviously written by those who have shorted the markets and pushing their points of view.

Which is fine - readers just need to be aware of the agendas behind the articles and read objectively.

They could be right or they could be wrong - only you can decide whether to act in concert or at variance with their agendas

Or written by the banksters hoovering up with their cheap credit facilities.
They will be in for the medium to long term & are just using their short term views to scare everyone witless.
Not that I am saying BH is one of the banksters but
BH waiting for their opportunities
https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Warren-Buffett-6/news/When-Buffett-s-Phone-Stops-Ringing-WSJ--30430858/?countview=0

[Balance]

Or written by the banksters hoovering up with their cheap credit facilities.
They will be in for the medium to long term & are just using their short term views to scare everyone witless.
Not that I am saying BH is one of the banksters but
BH waiting for their opportunities
https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Warren-Buffett-6/news/When-Buffett-s-Phone-Stops-Ringing-WSJ--30430858/?countview=0

BH has always been principled when they articulate their views & clear where they see the risks and the opportunities - I have plenty of time for their assessments and strategies.

They are not always right but they tell it as they see it.

Compare and contrast with thevlikes of say, George Soros who made his fortune by front-running ideas and views. Be careful!

[bull....]

heres a good summary of bear market cycles , good read even if you dont agree this is a bear market

Technically Speaking: The 4-Phases Of A Full-Market Cycle (https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-4-phases-of-a-full-market-cycle/)Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 7, 2020

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-4-phases-of-a-full-market-cycle/

[Balance]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLcNStHTDjM

Rather rude but straight and true to the endth degree.

All governments are always in hock with big businesses and banks - so you can choose to benefit from the situation by investing accordingly - or you can rage like Vic. ;)

[winner69]

ft.com headline vestment

Add to myFT 'ndia moves to curb Chinese corporate takeovers'

We need to follow suit I reckon......else after the upcoming carnage we kiwis won't own very much at all

[Aaron]

ft.com headline vestment

Add to myFT 'ndia moves to curb Chinese corporate takeovers'

We need to follow suit I reckon......else after the upcoming carnage we kiwis won't own very much at all

Agreed, Australia has already put curbs on foreign investment.

[Aaron]

Is the bottom in?
Ray Dalio says yes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA1Ji-Hj1qo

Central banks fill holes in income and balance sheets with easy money. (four & half minutes in) c.f. Roosevelt printing money and severing link to gold March 1933 exact bottom of the market. 2008 bottom when federal govt created program to save the banks and Mario Draghi said "whatever it takes".

Therefore I guess QE infinity announcement was the bottom. The holes are getting bigger and bigger. Sadly Ray has no answer to what needs to change as he probably sees no need to change but he is right that cash is trash. Maybe not last month but eventually.

[moka]

ft.com headline vestment

Add to myFT 'ndia moves to curb Chinese corporate takeovers'

We need to follow suit I reckon......else after the upcoming carnage we kiwis won't own very much at all

Speaking to the Epidemic Response Select Committee on 16 April Trade Minister David Parker confirmed the Government was considering changes to the Overseas Investment Act, similar to what has happened in Australia, to attempt to protect against the risk of predatory purchases of distressed assets.

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/nz-become-more-dependent-china-agriculture-trade-expert

[nztx]

Speaking to the Epidemic Response Select Committee on 16 April Trade Minister David Parker confirmed the Government was considering changes to the Overseas Investment Act, similar to what has happened in Australia, to attempt to protect against the risk of predatory purchases of distressed assets.

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/nz-become-more-dependent-china-agriculture-trade-expert

that's bound to please Peters & his followers no end ..

[moka]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-drug-may-cure-covid-110630518.html

Another doomsday article to reinforce the one above.

What’s the common thread between the two articles?

Obviously written by those who have shorted the markets and pushing their points of view.

Which is fine - readers just need to be aware of the agendas behind the articles and read objectively.

They could be right or they could be wrong - only you can decide whether to act in concert or at variance with their agendas
I am not concerned with agendas to support whether to invest or not but with the facts of what is happening to the world’s economy.
It is Doomsday for many businesses and for some sectors such as tourism, airlines etc. A lot of wealth has been and will be destroyed.

Millions of businesses around the world will not survive the impact of Covid-19. And yes some companies will emerge stronger including most global technology firms as they simply don't have a liquidity problem and there is a huge demand for their products and services. In the past 10 to 15 years they have amassed huge cash reserves from highly profitable business.
Microsoft, Alphabet (Google's parent company) and Apple each have over US$100 billion in cash reserves; Facebook and Amazon are not far behind with US$50 billion in the bank.

While other businesses have chosen to return the money to investors via share buybacks, these firms have kept it in reserve for a rainy day. While they could never have predicted Covid-19, they are now uniquely positioned to weather the storm, coming out the other side with less competition and even stronger than they were before.
Crises drive step changes in innovation. With their gigantic bank balances and global user base, the tech firms are poised to do so at a scale and at a pace we've not seen before.

Companies with the most cash on hand
Microsoft $136.6b
Berkkshire Hathaway $128.2b
Alphabet $121.1b
Apple $100.6b
Facebook $52.3b
Amazon $43.7b
Ford $37.3b
Oracle $35.7b
Cisco $33.4b
Bristol Myers Sqibb $32.5b

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324818&&ref=recommended

(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324818&&ref=recommended)
(https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324818&&ref=recommended)

[bull....]

lock down decision 4pm im hoping for a extension of lock down for at least a week , 2 better 10 a day is still to much and contact tracing systems are not in place as mention by health director

[jonu]

lock down decision 4pm im hoping for a extension of lock down for at least a week , 2 better 10 a day is still to much and contact tracing systems are not in place as mention by health director

Sounds like bull.... has cashed up again.

[King1212]

Yup.that is bull... all for his own goals

[bull....]

rubbish , if we let up on the battle now at 10 a day odd infections it means in time the second wave will come just like singapore etc and that will be more damaging than an extra odd week now to give nz the best chance to ride this out till vaccine is found

[Balance]

rubbish , if we let up on the battle now at 10 a day odd infections it means in time the second wave will come just like singapore etc and that will be more damaging than an extra odd week now to give nz the best chance to ride this out till vaccine is found

Singapore and Japan have second waves because they ignored the festering infections amongst their sizeable migrant & guest worker communities.

[bull....]

Singapore and Japan have second waves because they ignored the festering infections amongst their sizeable migrant & guest worker communities.

even 1 missed case means in time a second wave will come. simple maths as i find it hard to think we can totally eradicate it because of Asymptomatic people.
So do we get the level of infections down as much as possible to delay the inevitable second wave allowing more time for a vaccine to be found before we hit the wave or do you reduce the time to get to the second wave by relaxing now. either way business will suffer

[Balance]

even 1 missed case means in time a second wave will come. simple maths as i find it hard to think we can totally eradicate it because of Asymmetric people.
So do we get the level of infections down as much as possible to delay the inevitable second wave allowing more time for a vaccine to be found before we hit the wave or do you reduce the time to get to the second wave by relaxing now. either way business will suffer

Impossible to eradicate - pipe dream.

[jonu]

even 1 missed case means in time a second wave will come. simple maths as i find it hard to think we can totally eradicate it because of Asymmetric people.
So do we get the level of infections down as much as possible to delay the inevitable second wave allowing more time for a vaccine to be found before we hit the wave or do you reduce the time to get to the second wave by relaxing now. either way business will suffer

Asymmetric might fit with simple maths...Asymptomatic...not so much.

[bull....]

Asymmetric might fit with simple maths...Asymptomatic...not so much.

wrong wording thx

[moka]

Is the bottom in?
Ray Dalio says yes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA1Ji-Hj1qo

Central banks fill holes in income and balance sheets with easy money. (four & half minutes in) c.f. Roosevelt printing money and severing link to gold March 1933 exact bottom of the market. 2008 bottom when federal govt created program to save the banks and Mario Draghi said "whatever it takes".

Therefore I guess QE infinity announcement was the bottom. The holes are getting bigger and bigger. Sadly Ray has no answer to what needs to change as he probably sees no need to change but he is right that cash is trash. Maybe not last month but eventually.
This video is 46 minutes long and at times Ray is not very focused, but he has put his thoughts on his website which is a lot clearer and well worth a read.
The Changing World Order. Where we are and where we're going.
A new study on the rises and declines of past leading empires that puts today’s economic, political, and policy situation into perspective of the big picture.
https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/

[Tomtom]

I can't stop clicking the refresh button on WTI tonight, it's absolutely cratering. There must be more tight oil producers getting ready to throw in the towel now.

[bull....]

I can't stop clicking the refresh button on WTI tonight, it's absolutely cratering. There must be more tight oil producers getting ready to throw in the towel now.

crashing for sure and we still are paying 1.80s for 91 being rorted just like at the supermarket

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-us-oil-prices-collapse-as-storage-runs-out.html

US oil prices are on track for their worst day ever: Here’s why


im watching to see which firm blows up first from being on the wrong side

Oil is getting crushed again with one futures contract down 80% to record low under $3


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/oil-markets-us-crude-futures-in-focus-as-coronavirus-dents-demand.html


see the exchange has just said they will allow the contract on oil to trade negative as i talk the price is $1 a barrel of oil

[ratkin]

even 1 missed case means in time a second wave will come. simple maths as i find it hard to think we can totally eradicate it because of Asymptomatic people.
So do we get the level of infections down as much as possible to delay the inevitable second wave allowing more time for a vaccine to be found before we hit the wave or do you reduce the time to get to the second wave by relaxing now. either way business will suffer

Level Two maybe the best we can manage. Any mass gatherings would be a risky proposition. It does look like we have no community spread, but you can never be sure. Even if there was currently only One person in the community that had it, the number would double every Four days without restrictions.

[bull....]

Level Two maybe the best we can manage. Any mass gatherings would be a risky proposition. It does look like we have no community spread, but you can never be sure. Even if there was currently only One person in the community that had it, the number would double every Four days without restrictions.

thats why there contact tracing etc is so important , the more people who slip thru the quicker the second wave comes

[bull....]

oil closed negative - 30 + dollars a barrel :scared: , they really go for jugular when some funds in trouble. we will find out some time who went bust i reckon

[blackcap]

oil closed negative - 30 + dollars a barrel :scared: , they really go for jugular when some funds in trouble. we will find out some time who went bust i reckon

Oil Futures closed negative. The actual spot price for Brent is still $28 a barrel. Lets not try and mislead here.

[bull....]

Oil Futures closed negative. The actual spot price for Brent is still $28 a barrel. Lets not try and mislead here.

what you talking about , futures trading means someone wins someone losses

[blackcap]

what you talking about , futures trading means someone wins someone losses

You said Oil closed negative. I was just fixing your post. Oil did not close negative. Oil is trading at $22 or $28 a barrel depending on which one you buy. Its the futures that are trading negative.

[bull....]

You said Oil closed negative. I was just fixing your post. Oil did not close negative. Oil is trading at $22 or $28 a barrel depending on which one you buy. Its the futures that are trading negative.

exactly if you read my first post it was in relation to futures as the referenced cnbc stories on the futures contracts. then you would have understood the reference to oil. the fact it was futures means someone was in trouble and didnt want to get caught holding the futures so they were trying to get rid of them at any price

[Entrep]

Oil more reflective of what’s really going on in the world than stocks

[bull....]

Oil more reflective of what’s really going on in the world than stocks

exactly and the oil price spot physical still closed down double digits for the day so reflecting very poor demand outlook.

[Balance]

June WTI contract is + US$20 (yes, + not -) . Eh, he says - can't be right because I read that oil price has tanked!

Brent oil price is down only 6.4%.

Have a good read if you really want to understand what's happening with oil and why the May WTI contract price crashed into negative territory today.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-falls-stocks-fill-earnings-085554998.html

[Aaron]

June WTI contract is + US$20 (yes, + not -) . Eh, he says - can't be right because I read that oil price has tanked!

Brent oil price is down only 6.4%.

Have a good read if you really want to understand what's happening with oil and why the May WTI contract price crashed into negative territory today.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-falls-stocks-fill-earnings-085554998.html

Interesting article hopefully the deflation in oil prices will slow down the impending hyper inflation you talk about. Even better if it flows through to the petrol pump at home.

[Balance]

Interesting article hopefully the deflation in oil prices will slow down the impending hyper inflation you talk about. Even better if it flows through to the petrol pump at home.

We will see deflation first due to demand drops.

Then, watch out for the tsunami of cheap money flooding the financial markets in 2021.

[macduffy]

Interesting article hopefully the deflation in oil prices will slow down the impending hyper inflation you talk about. Even better if it flows through to the petrol pump at home.

The effect will be limited by the hefty taxes levied on fuels.

Incidentally, the reason that oil futures have gone negative is because no-one has the available storage if they are required to take physical delivery. If this doesn't make producers see sense and limit production, nothing will!

[Balance]

The effect will be limited by the hefty taxes levied on fuels.

Incidentally, the reason that oil futures have gone negative is because no-one has the available storage if they are required to take physical delivery. If this doesn't make producers see sense and limit production, nothing will!

Yup - we do not see the real drop in oil price on fuel price in NZ.

Friend who lives in Oz in our chat group said that their 91 octane was A87.9c yesterday.

Another friend working in in Thailand countered that theirs was NZ90c yesterday!

We really get screwed in NZ something terrible by the government & local authorities.

[sb9]

Yup - we do not see the real drop in oil price on fuel price in NZ.

Friend who lives in Oz in our chat group said that their 91 octane was A87.9c yesterday.

Another friend working in in Thailand countered that theirs was NZ90c yesterday!

We really get screwed in NZ something terrible by the government & local authorities.

Does not help when out govt fleeces us with more than a $1 in total tax take out of pump price...

[see weed]

Does not help when out govt fleeces us with more than a $1 in total tax take out of pump price...
If you can't beat them join them. Been buying up ZEL for the last couple of weeks.

[bull....]

11278

DJI bearish wedge pattern on the hourlies , might play out , might not but worth keeping an eye on. meets the criteria under 50% retracement , declining volume.

just a reminder this chart pattern is still in play. having cashed out remaining bounce stocks yesterday im well positioned if it plays out

[steveb]

The effect will be limited by the hefty taxes levied on fuels.

Incidentally, the reason that oil futures have gone negative is because no-one has the available storage if they are required to take physical delivery. If this doesn't make producers see sense and limit production, nothing will!
But I did see somewhere that trump is going to add the current surplus to the strategic oil reserves.Had a quick look online and you can pickup a 25000 litre tank for 3 grand,if the price of petrol comes down enough,tank manufacturers could be the investment we are all looking for!

[dobby41]

you can pickup a 25000 litre tank for 3 grand,if the price of petrol comes down enough,tank manufacturers could be the investment we are all looking for!

Imagine one of those in everyones back yard

[Timesurfer]

Will stay low until they have put the fracking boys out of business. Perfect opportunity to flood the market when demand is ridiculously low.
Once the competition has been reduced it will be all on to rape and pillage the global markets again.

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/coronavirus-australia-rba-warns-of-biggest-contraction-since-1930s/news-story/3e2fc602ecd6e21971de4c5c34438740

You have been warned - RBA expects the worse economic contraction and conditions since the 1930s.

[bull....]

oil smashed again today even brent. chart of june oil



11372


heres updated sp500 chart breaking down of bearish rising wedge chart pattern

11373


bear rally was really causing a bad disconnect between reality of earnings to stock prices. the market was more expensive than at the peak

[ratkin]

The bear rally is over, now reality sets in.

[bull....]

The bear rally is over, now reality sets in.

big disconnect between reality of company earnings and stock prices. NZX probably more expensive now than at the peak

[Crypto Crude]

Next big crisis is a food famine set to double by end of 2020 but next few months ... 265 million people are at risk... 300,000 deaths per day expected... major famines in more than 30 countries...
:(cc

[bull....]

well the pummelling of oil the last 2 days over all forward contracts finally shows the oil market has accepted that there will not be a v recovery anywhere. wonder if the contango will narrow now?

[dobby41]

Next big crisis is a food famine set to double by end of 2020 but next few months ... 265 million people are at risk... 300,000 deaths per day expected... major famines in more than 30 countries...
:(cc

Are they countries that anyone cares about?
Sadly I suspect not.

[King1212]

NZ is not rely on oil. companies have nothing to do with oil. Whether oil negative or not...we still pay full price as 50% is tax. So ...we are on a good position

[sb9]

A2 and SPK update today might save the day for our local exchange...

[Entrep]

2750 support becomes resistance. I think this is the start of the real downtrend.

[King1212]

Senate passes $484 billion coronavirus bill for small business and hospital relief, testing

That will bring green tmrw on the Dow

[Balance]

A2 and SPK update today might save the day for our local exchange...

Exactly - it must be a big sobering surprise to the doomsday merchants (who missed out on the big rally in the last few weeks and are pleading for the market to drop) that there are many companies on the NZX which are doing exceptionally well in the current environment.

ATM obviously stands out but so do FPH, Ebos, RBD etc.

Can't be bothered re-writing so :

Don't look at the index which is skewed towards several index-heavy weighted stocks like ATM, FPH, EBO, the relatively resilient utility sector (energy, ports, internet), the essential industry healthcare operators & retirement villages and the agricultural sector (SCL, SEK, PGW).

Real damage done is not the index - but the stocks exposed to the carnage like Air NZ, THL, SKC, MCK, SKY etc.

The NZX index has NEVER been a fair reflection of the NZ economy.

[Balance]

Market is due for a breather in any case so...

Enjoy the view!

PS. Oil crashing is of course excellent news for NZ - we import net 50m barrels a year so compared to a year ago, NZers will save US$2.5 billion (NZ$4.2 billion) a year.

[dobby41]

PS. Oil crashing is of course excellent news for NZ - we import net 50m barrels a year so compared to a year ago, NZers will save US$2.5 billion (NZ$4.2 billion) a year.

I thought Brent crude was only down 8% or something and back to where it was a few weeks ago?
It's the West Texas stuff that's crashed and we don't use (or follow) that.

[Balance]

I thought Brent crude was only down 8% or something and back to where it was a few weeks ago?
It's the West Texas stuff that's crashed and we don't use (or follow) that.

I have Brent (refer Bloomberg) down to $19.33 vs $69.54 a year ago.

[dobby41]

The NZX index has NEVER been a fair reflection of the NZ economy.

Never a truer word.

[Balance]

Never a truer word.

There are some seriously either un-informed or devious posters on this site who either

- do not read,

- if they do, they cannot understand or

- are hell-bent on creating & spreading misinformation for their own ends.

I am writing this because this forum is read and used by many newbies and inexperienced investors who deserve better.

Why do I know? Because they message me and I also know that the media reads this forum.

Let's give a balanced view and help them make proper & informed decisions. May be right or wrong but at least it's informed.

[bull....]

chart of brent oil , looks like a crash to me

11375


and i expect the spread to WTI to narrow from its rather large one at the moment

also some companies are impacted on the nzx eg genesis , nzog , contact thru natural gas probably some others

[bull....]

Truly enormous' economic hit will push jobless to 11%, house prices down 15%: ANZ NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121178914/truly-enormous-economic-hit-will-push-jobless-to-11-house-prices-down-15-anz

[Balance]

Truly enormous' economic hit will push jobless to 11%, house prices down 15%: ANZ NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121178914/truly-enormous-economic-hit-will-push-jobless-to-11-house-prices-down-15-anz

Not even close to what I expect to happen to NZ economy.

Will be a lot worse - and government will respond by printing another $50 billion to reflate the economy.

Think through what that means.

[Hoop]

Comment: (Layman applying Logic) Huge oil price drop should see a big petrol price drop at the pump..In reality: maybe not..Result: Confusion!!!!

The Media should be held accountable for this confusion..Yes the media has a right to pounce on any news event, but in doing so they should educate the reader while delivering the news if it's seen to be complex and at risk of creating public confusion and a spread of misinformation...

Yes..The expiry of the May options is dramatic as it is never perceived in business that you would have to pay someone to dispose of a commodity that you recently bought...But it has happened with Oil with the expiry of the May options. I'm not sure of the history but if it has happened before it would be extremely rare.. so yes, this time the Media drama is warranted,

From the table you will notice there is a contango (when the prices for longer expiry dated options are higher than the nearer expiry dated options)..

The media dramatises the word contango to make it look like a very unusual and bad event..In the futures markets a contango is a normal situation when there is an oversupply in the market, the market displays its price/demand principles, there is nothing bad about it as the market is acting as it normally would.
Here the link to the Oil futures market price table (10 minute delay) (https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=769-K0&optionProductId=769)...It has hyperlinks, have a play, click away and have fun..

PS...yes the oil price has fallen a lot... June expiry options is currently at $us 13.69

[bull....]

Not even close to what I expect to happen to NZ economy.

Will be a lot worse - and government will respond by printing another $50 billion to reflate the economy.

Think through what that means.

yes lots of new taxes for me to pay

[thedrunkfish]

Not even close to what I expect to happen to NZ economy.

Will be a lot worse - and government will respond by printing another $50 billion to reflate the economy.

Think through what that means.

Where do i get one if these crystal balls?

[dobby41]

Not even close to what I expect to happen to NZ economy.

Will be a lot worse - and government will respond by printing another $50 billion to reflate the economy.

Think through what that means.

Need a preditions thread to keep track of this sort of stuff.
Easy to say but takes a while to prove.

[bull....]

more grim reading

Coronavirus to lead to biggest contraction of Australia's economy since Great Depression, Reserve Bank warns
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/reserve-bank-warns-challenges-for-australian-economy-coronavirus/12169914?section=business

not good when they NZ second biggest export market

[Balance]

more grim reading

Coronavirus to lead to biggest contraction of Australia's economy since Great Depression, Reserve Bank warns
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-21/reserve-bank-warns-challenges-for-australian-economy-coronavirus/12169914?section=business

not good when they NZ second biggest export market

Yawn - posted yesterday. Old news.

[youngatheart]

Not even close to what I expect to happen to NZ economy.

Will be a lot worse - and government will respond by printing another $50 billion to reflate the economy.

Think through what that means.
Please spell it out to us who only live in the world of three dimensions.

[blackcap]

Please spell it out to us who only live in the world of three dimensions.

Printing money generally leads to asset price inflation.

[bull....]

oil after being up 20% morning gone negative again. i read somewhere about potential for spot oil to go negative :scared: see if i can find the article. now if the govt could remove taxes on petrol and if we get negative oil the petrol companies can pay me to drive around lol

[macduffy]

oil after being up 20% morning gone negative again. i read somewhere about potential for spot oil to go negative :scared: see if i can find the article. now if the govt could remove taxes on petrol and if we get negative oil the petrol companies can pay me to drive around lol

…… and the govt will no doubt pay you the tax you would otherwise be paying!

:p

[Balance]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/australian-markets/collapsing-oil-prices-a-sign-global-stocks-will-fall-further/news-story/d16adf22f4264fd26190b9902097c92d

Will play well to the doomsday posters here.

[Valuegrowth]

It is time to separate attractive individual stocks with broader market.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investing-stocks-balance-sheets-everything-180234572.html

[Cadalac123]

If you don't blindly invest in index funds and actually put in research and own companies this whole period would hardly have impacted you regardless of the current rally failing or not.

[nztx]

…… and the govt will no doubt pay you the tax you would otherwise be paying!

:p

where do we direct all to go to apply for this refund .. ?