Black Monday

[skid]

It helps if you ask a clear question, rather than reinterpreting my posts.

I think The Indian government's response was telling. They are keeping their resources for more serious diseases. Things like Cholera, Typhoid and probably Plague isn't unknown to them. I thought the initial reaction from the UK was sensible and sound. Unfortunately they caved to the hysteria that surrounds us.

so business as usual?

[value_investor]

A lot of short termism thinking going on about the market situation, and I get the jist people are investing with the thought of keeping their money for a few years and selling up to huge profits. Its inevitable that not a lot of people have had the taste of seeing their portfolio's down so much and haven't seen a punch in the gut before.

If the markets are good for awhile, people start thinking its always like this. Same goes for when the market is bad for awhile.

[Valuegrowth]

A lot of short termism thinking going on about the market situation, and I get the jist people are investing with the thought of keeping their money for a few years and selling up to huge profits. Its inevitable that not a lot of people have had the taste of seeing their portfolio's down so much and haven't seen a punch in the gut before.

If the markets are good for awhile, people start thinking its always like this. Same goes for when the market is bad for awhile. I can't agree more. But it’s not all doom and gloom. In fact, some industries in many countries are thriving because of coronavirus. On what basis we buy stocks? On Value or growth. When we see great value in a growth company so much better. New trend is some investors are looking for value stocks in defensive sector in international markets. Virus or not, they cannot postpone eating and drinking. That may be the reason for sudden huge demand for egg and chicken stocks. This week's most winners were food stocks. Always there is a place to park money.The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has created “anunprecedented spike in demand” for a wide range of food products.

[value_investor]

I can't agree more. But it’s not all doom and gloom. In fact, some industries in many countries are thriving because of coronavirus. On what basis we buy stocks? On Value or growth. When we see great value in a growth company so much better. New trend is some investors are looking for value stocks in defensive sector in international markets. Virus or not, they cannot postpone eating and drinking. That may be the reason for sudden huge demand for egg and chicken stocks. This week's most winners were food stocks. Always there is a place to park money.The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has created “anunprecedented spike in demand” for a wide range of food products.

Oh yes, I definitely think there will be some stocks that will do well out of it and agree with you. Mine is more of a general commentary on the doom and gloom. The media sells clicks now, because people aren't buying the physical newspapers. I'm seeing similar parallels to the great recession, where people thought we would never get back to a semblance of normal.

I think the recovery will be on the sharper side upwards when the virus fears are quelled. People have short term memories, and I don't think this will have an impact on consumer spending or flying overseas. The journey to get there might too much to bare for some.

[kiora]

A part(major?) is liquidity.
Is money moving in or out(weak hands) of passive funds
Are passive funds net buyers or net sellers?
Is the stock moving in or out of an index and its weighting in an index changing ?

[Timesurfer]

It will be interesting to see how much of a roll on effect the crashing realestate funds that offer daily liquidity will have on the wider financial markets.
If this carries over to people shifting their kiwisavers and the like into “safer” funds. A complete market rebalance will see some carnage even though the more hands on fund managers have already been liquefying a good percentage of their funds.

Exciting times to be investing. One thing is sure, fortunes will made and lost in the coming weeks.

[bull....]

A part(major?) is liquidity.
Is money moving in or out(weak hands) of passive funds
Are passive funds net buyers or net sellers?
Is the stock moving in or out of an index and its weighting in an index changing ?

liquidity is key hence all the central banks providing it at the moment to make sure the decline is orderly. plenty of funds will go bust due mainly to leverage and valuation downgrades of assets in due course hence why cash is king.

[Valuegrowth]

Oh yes, I definitely think there will be some stocks that will do well out of it and agree with you. Mine is more of a general commentary on the doom and gloom. The media sells clicks now, because people aren't buying the physical newspapers. I'm seeing similar parallels to the great recession, where people thought we would never get back to a semblance of normal.

I think the recovery will be on the sharper side upwards when the virus fears are quelled. People have short term memories, and I don't think this will have an impact on consumer spending or flying overseas. The journey to get there might too much to bare for some.

Reason for demand for poultry and other meat stocks is sudden demand for eggs and meat in many countries.

https://thepoultrysite.com/news/2020/03/us-grocery-meat-supply-to-improve-soon-after-virus-fueled-demand-surge
US grocery meat supply to improve soon, after virus-fueled demand surge

[bull....]

expect another wave of fund selling soon as funds sell to raise cash due to redemptions . this will happen with kiwisaver funds as well from hardship withdrawls

Australians Get Early Access to Pension Savings to Boost Incomehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/australians-get-early-access-to-pension-savings-to-boost-income?srnd=premium-asia

[Valuegrowth]

Where can intelligent investors hide in a situation like this?

They can hide in companies that have strong balance sheets, less debt, stable cash flows and carrying a respectable dividend yield. Buying them, when they are trading at a fraction of real value is not a bad strategy.

[bull....]

New south wales moving to full lockdown , NZ is way behind the curve in both economic and health response now compared to other countries. will only result in worse outcomes for NZ if they do not hurry.


NSW moves to shut down non-essential services as COVID-19 diagnoses surpass 1000 in Australia
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-in-australia-hit-1000-spain-records-biggest-daily-jump-in-death-toll-20200321-p54cl4.html

[ratkin]

New south wales moving to full lockdown , NZ is way behind the curve in both economic and health response now compared to other countries. will only result in worse outcomes for NZ if they do not hurry.


NSW moves to shut down non-essential services as COVID-19 diagnoses surpass 1000 in Australia


https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-in-australia-hit-1000-spain-records-biggest-daily-jump-in-death-toll-20200321-p54cl4.html

They are a few weeks further doown the path than us, but we know she always copies pretty quickly, market in for a whacking in morning

[Valuegrowth]

Two countries with two different approaches to coronavirus.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/jordan-announces-clock-curfew-coronavirus-outbreak-200320184824472.html
Round-the-clock curfew in Jordan to battle coronavirus outbreak

https://news.err.ee/1061484/virology-professor-surprisingly-estonia-has-done-everything-right
Virology professor: Surprisingly, Estonia has done everything right

[Baa_Baa]

4.55% drop on DOW Friday their time, can’t be good for sentiment tomorrow. Buckle up knuckle down, the ride is just beginning. Spare cash? Opportunities a plenty forthcoming.

[Cadalac123]

DCA is and has always been the gold standard.

[bull....]

Up to $27b to be withdrawn from super
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/up-to-27-billion-to-be-withdrawn-from-super-20200322-p54cmr

Could be a wave of stock selling coming to meet this

[ratkin]

Up to $27b to be withdrawn from super


https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/up-to-27-billion-to-be-withdrawn-from-super-20200322-p54cmr

Could be a wave of stock selling coming to meet this

Crazy, when in a hole keep digging

[bull....]

Crazy, when in a hole keep digging

there will be plenty of kiwisaver hardship withdrawls to come as well. so expect some selling in time too come.

kieth woodward says NZ is following the herd strategy of infection.

NZ’s COVID-19 policy has got into a tangle with the crisis deepening by the hour. We must move away from discredited herd immunity and move to full Level 4 now

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104204/nz%E2%80%99s-covid-19-policy-has-got-tangle-crisis-deepening-hour-we-must-move-away

thats what my dire senario post suggested , a dire outcome for NZ following this strategy even boris realised infecting the whole population was dumb in the end. ardern knows better eh infect everyone

[Bjauck]

Up to $27b to be withdrawn from super


https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/up-to-27-billion-to-be-withdrawn-from-super-20200322-p54cmr

Could be a wave of stock selling coming to meet this

I believe The Aussie right wing coalition parties never liked the superannuation scheme (I guess like National in NZ was against a superannuation shame and the super fund). Aus Labor is against this move.

[ratkin]

Deleted...l

[bull....]

I believe The Aussie right wing coalition parties never liked the superannuation scheme (I guess like National in NZ was against a superannuation shame and the super fund). Aus Labor is against this move.

they will relent as there people demand money in hard times

[Bjauck]

they will relent as there people demand money in hard times There are other ways to provide support other than allowing the fire-sale withdrawals of superannuation funds and adding to stock selling pressure.

[bull....]

US futures in limit down already. aus market looking down 9%

[fish]

Where can intelligent investors hide in a situation like this?

They can hide in companies that have strong balance sheets, less debt, stable cash flows and carrying a respectable dividend yield. Buying them, when they are trading at a fraction of real value is not a bad strategy.

That is very logical and how I thought I could hide.However the market is unpredictable-for instance I thought Oceania down over 50% and meeting those criteria was a good buy.Probably is an even better buy now but still falling.I tell myself next year it will be fine and have regained losses.
Any stock can still fall and as long as you do not have debt -then hiding in such stocks-diversification of course is a good long-term strategy.
Meanwhile cash is clearly king.

[bull....]

The fire rises...

I stick to my view equity prices are still overvalued even with 30% falls considering the economic back drop to come. easy 40% fall yet if you look at past crashes

[bull....]

There are other ways to provide support other than allowing the fire-sale withdrawals of superannuation funds and adding to stock selling pressure.

why should they worry about stock prices falling if people get money in there hands. govt doesnt even need to print then just give them some of there savings up front

[blackcap]

I see that Wall St is limit down at the moment. Last quote I have is 18,202 18,216.

[bull....]

I see that Wall St is limit down at the moment. Last quote I have is 18,202 18,216.

US stimulus package defeated too. was really only a bailout fund for businesses anyway. so might be super ugly tonight better get my chocolate and level 5 coffee ready

[peat]

getting very nasty.

Does this mean its time to buy ?

When you're too scared to do it , thats the right time yeh ?

[ratkin]

I think lockdown stage 4 will be announced today. Certain stocks plummeted in the last hour

[ratkin]

getting very nasty.

Does this mean its time to buy ?

When you're too scared to do it , thats the right time yeh ?

Lol yep, when it makes you physically sick to press the button, it is the right time

[blackcap]

getting very nasty.

Does this mean its time to buy ?

When you're too scared to do it , thats the right time yeh ?

I think that time is very soon. Always darkest before dawn. Very tough to do in practice though.

[Joshuatree]

Just hit level 3 now Level 4 in 48 hours.

[bull....]

im not buying anything until you know whats happening with the virus and for that matter the world.

[workingdad]

im not buying anything until you know whats happening with the virus and for that matter the world.

Yep, I agree and happily staying away. I have learnt in the past not to catch a falling knife and glad the temptation to but has been ignored. No one has seen anything like this before and the downward risk is only picking up pace.

[ratkin]

Yep, I agree and happily staying away. I have learnt in the past not to catch a falling knife and glad the temptation to but has been ignored. No one has seen anything like this before and the downward risk is only picking up pace.

I have a few low ball offers in at 10-20% discount to current prices, never know may snag a few

[Entrep]

I have a few low ball offers in at 10-20% discount to current prices, never know may snag a few

Only a few? 10%-20% drop is nothing from here

[causecelebre]

im not buying anything until you know whats happening with the virus and for that matter the world.

Agree. Far too little confirmation of anything to frontrun this

[Joshuatree]

Only a few? 10%-20% drop is nothing from here

Yes check your longterm charts one year chart looks like a bargain, 5 year chart is realism.

[Oberon]

Ryman and Mainfreight 5 year charts -- that's scary.

[bull....]

Yes check your longterm charts one year chart looks like a bargain, 5 year chart is realism.

exactly , hardly down anything yet. i be waiting for clarity around company earnings next reporting season and by then might have some better outlook on the virus. hard to hold off mainly because they seem so cheap compared to last week but i locked my money in a term deposit lol to save myself catching a falling knife. i dont care if i miss the bottom clarity of economic outlook and company earnings is more important

[Entrep]

Ryman and Mainfreight 5 year charts -- that's scary.

Check out SKT and STU!

[Oberon]

Check out SKT and STU!

Yeah SKY hasn't been a pretty picture for years. Not quite the White Cliffs of Dover like Ryman tho ...

[Joshuatree]

DOW has had the worst week ever and worst month since 1931 (CNBC) More to come imo.

[Food4Thought]

DOW has had the worst week ever and worst month since 1931 (CNBC) More to come imo.

Is it relative worst week? So much more money around these days... massive increase in world population... massive different landscape. (I do understand how to conpare)

I think there is a good bit to go before we hit bottom. Grateful my gut gave me a warning 3 weeks ago.

This is incredible and the swing on affect on house prices in 6 months and shop fronts will be incredible.

Invest in those around you and those you can help. My money is going elsewhere for now. It's all a bit of a rocky road

[Baa_Baa]

I think there is a good bit to go before we hit bottom. Grateful my gut gave me a warning 3 weeks ago.

Good grief, you'd be right wondering if the recession was all over today and it's all peaches and cream from here. Have you seen how exuberant the market was today, companies up 20, 30% or more!

Sure, everything except a select few have been caned, flailed, walloped, but I can't see the market continuing to price in extreme optimism that the effects of Covid on a shutdown economy ... for at least weeks, probably longer ... warrants buying with such enthusiasm.

I'm expecting lower than the low prices to come later.

[Timesurfer]

Indeed. I was on the road all day and got home to see what the damage was for the day and its all green.
A bit early to be celebrating I would have thought too.
Lots of grief to come as companies go to the wall over the coming weeks. Mind you, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger so any winners picked will thrive with the lack of competition - once economic momentum returns.

[Valuegrowth]

This is may be time to rotate from growth stocks to value stocks as well. Growth stocks had one of the longest run and their P/E ratio have extended so much. Can the growth companies maintain their growth in the coming years to justify their high P/E ratio? There could be few high growth companies with strong balance sheets where they can have monopoly situation.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4321835-rotation-to-value-is-inevitable

[workingdad]

Very impressive gains yesterday and overnight. I keep asking myself what has changed to warrant such gains and given how quickly covid-19 is spreading here and abroad I don’t really understand why, what will the week bring is the million dollar question....

[Cadalac123]

This is may be time to rotate from growth stocks to value stocks as well. Growth stocks had one of the longest run and their P/E ratio have extended so much. Can the growth companies maintain their growth in the coming years to justify their high P/E ratio? There could be few high growth companies with strong balance sheets where they can have monopoly situation.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4321835-rotation-to-value-is-inevitable

I don’t really understand these articles. Yeah so a company growing with extreme eps quarter and quarter is going to lag a stalwart growing at 0-3percent . When was this ever a phenomenon?

[blackcap]

Very impressive gains yesterday and overnight. I keep asking myself what has changed to warrant such gains and given how quickly covid-19 is spreading here and abroad I don’t really understand why, what will the week bring is the million dollar question....

Possibly as markets are very much forward looking and they are perceiving that the measures that are being implemented are actually starting to work. In addition all the QE pumping that governments are doing is going to raise asset prices. Markets are a accumulation of assets. ANother factor (NZ specific) is that markets do not like uncertainty. So when they knew level 4 was going to be initiated with a 4 week minimum they have more clarity of what is going to happen. Just some ramblings.

[Balance]

Very impressive gains yesterday and overnight. I keep asking myself what has changed to warrant such gains and given how quickly covid-19 is spreading here and abroad I don’t really understand why, what will the week bring is the million dollar question....

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11709-Potential-adverse-effects-from-coronavirus-on-NZ-economy/page162

Read post #2419.

[Balance]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11709-Potential-adverse-effects-from-coronavirus-on-NZ-economy/page162

Read post #2419.

Biggest stimulus package ever for the US (over $2 trillion or approaching 10% GDP) getting close to being finalized and implemented.

Meanwhile, there are bargains to be had but ...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-be-practically-stealing-quality-stocks-now-according-to-jefferies-2020-03-23?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Be careful!

[Oberon]

Possibly as markets are very much forward looking and they are perceiving that the measures that are being implemented are actually starting to work. In addition all the QE pumping that governments are doing is going to raise asset prices. Markets are a accumulation of assets. ANother factor (NZ specific) is that markets do not like uncertainty. So when they knew level 4 was going to be initiated with a 4 week minimum they have more clarity of what is going to happen. Just some ramblings.

I tend to agree. As for my own predictions ... there's still a lot more pain to come with the USA leading the way. On the one hand, the Dow has had two consecutive green days and it's best day since 1933. On the other hand, WHO have said the US is likely to become the world's next hot spot for the virus. Their nuclear option efforts for supporting the economy will not curb skyrocketing fatalities, an overwhelmed healthcare system and an impatient President wanting to reopen the economy in a couple of weeks. That's why my money is staying in the bank until - frankly - things completely unravel in the States.

Despite the uptick, data from prior crashes suggests another major pullback in traditional markets is coming. Here's a chart for comparison to prior crashes - food for thought:

11152

[mondograss]

The USA added more than 9000 cases yesterday alone (10,000 the day before) and is now third behind China and Italy in the total number of cases. Their death rate is a lot lower (roughly consistent with Germany and South Korea which is probably due to their much larger health system) but expect that to increase as the pressure grows on their health system and it starts getting into the poorer areas with limited healthcare access. This is interesting for those that like looking at numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Joshuatree]

Volatility index veery high
Gold surging
Dead cat bounce but just my opinion be careful out there n every way.
Int that tea price is up re 30% in a week and coffee 22%.
Managed to get my last coffee at my cafe yest afternoon, I was the only one there,god it was good. Owner said they had just stopped paying rent.Come what may. Imagine if that is happening all around the country and the domino effect.:confused:

[workingdad]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11709-Potential-adverse-effects-from-coronavirus-on-NZ-economy/page162

Read post #2419.

Yeah good points and to others responding to that post of mine. I understand them throwing everything at economies, business and markets but from a lay perspective companies are still going to be hurting as are countries. Unemployment, borrowing and industries falling flat. Globally the GDPs are taking a hit and flow on effect of the house of cards given such high P/E s seem to be a fairly considerable unknown. A typical bear is more substantial than what we have seen yet and the driving force of the bear is still in play.

I’m keen to jump back in but I’m still hesitant. I may miss some gains or the boat all together but I am feeling more comfortable in avoiding the risk if this is a drawn out affair. Not trying to be doom merchant but my venue of this in the health sector is perhaps tainted for lack of a better term.

[Entrep]

Keen to hear ratkin and bull view on this jump

[ratkin]

Keen to hear ratkin and bull view on this jump

Short term opportunity may go as high as 20% but we still in a bear market so it will likely fall back again. Many will be sucked in by it for fear of missing out. That is ok if you can time your exit ok.

Best hope for the US economy is to ignore the deaths and keep going, they have left it too late to worry about controlling it

Have we seen the low on the nz market? Who knows, but the economy is stuffed and we have gone from being the worlds best performing market so people still have too high expectations. Might take a while to beat the optimism out of them.

Only NZ Stock I am truly happy owning is FPH and it the only one I have a meaningful holding in

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Two must reads for anyone investing right now. The US is on the brink of being in the s***


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[blackcap]

The USA added more than 9000 cases yesterday alone (10,000 the day before) and is now third behind China and Italy in the total number of cases. Their death rate is a lot lower (roughly consistent with Germany and South Korea which is probably due to their much larger health system) but expect that to increase as the pressure grows on their health system and it starts getting into the poorer areas with limited healthcare access. This is interesting for those that like looking at numbers:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Pain etc aside, a high death rate amoung elderly in the USA will not impede the stock markets. From a market and economic perspective the US is possibly doing the right thing. Even Cuomo the NY governor seems to think that keeping people at home is not the long term solution. From a humanitarian perspective, we shall have to wait till the virus has passed and can see how deadly or not it really was.

[bull....]

Keen to hear ratkin and bull view on this jump

my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone.

[skid]

I have just had a bizarre ,but not an overly unrealistic, thought .........................The fact that Donald Trump has decided he is perfectly willing to sacrifice many,many american lives,by reopening america to business as usual(and the disease) can actually make their market,and in turn other markets go up....he has blatently decided on ''business'' over the spread of the virus in america.....How does one process that information? It will undoubtetly cause a humanitarian crises if he does it....and it could backfire badly ...but what an ethical deleama.

[blackcap]

I have just had a bizarre ,but not an overly unrealistic, thought .........................The fact that Donald Trump has decided he is perfectly willing to sacrifice many,many american lives,by reopening america to business as usual(and the disease) can actually make their market,and in turn other markets go up....he has blatently decided on ''business'' over the spread of the virus in america.....How does one process that information? It will undoubtetly cause a humanitarian crises if he does it....and it could backfire badly ...but what an ethical deleama.

It is an interesting ethical dilemma which countries to an extent grapple with every day. For instance you could argue that the road toll has an inverse correlation with the speed limit whilst our economic benefit has a positive correlation with the speed limit. Another example is health and Pharmac funding. We allow a certain number of people to die prematurely every year for economic considerations.

[skid]

my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone.

The real decision is to whether to sell into the bounce(dead cat?) or hold on, banking on the start of recovery..................so far bounces have been followed by falls ...but who knows?.....I guess if corporations get a big enough freebie to play with?...............One thinbg for sure ...Trump only cares about big business....he will scarifice all for it.........................But can they perform?....do they need to perform?

[BlackPeter]

Pain etc aside, a high death rate amoung elderly in the USA will not impede the stock markets. From a market and economic perspective the US is possibly doing the right thing. Even Cuomo the NY governor seems to think that keeping people at home is not the long term solution. From a humanitarian perspective, we shall have to wait till the virus has passed and can see how deadly or not it really was.

Probably a discussion for a different thread. But I agree that societies should have this discussion. At the moment it looks like we are happy to inflict unlimited damage onto our economy in order to save (some) lives. And yes, every life is important. However the price for that is that many small and some larger companies will not make it. Suicide rates will undoubtedly go up due to many people seeing their livelihoods killed off. Our tax take will drop and our debts will rise brutally, which means that next year we e.g. won't be able anymore to pay for many cures we still can pay for. And our health system decides already today that some people need to die early because we can't afford to pay for their cure - how much worse might this get?

Basically the famous trolley dilemma. A trolley is running downhill towards a switch - and one of the tracks is blocked with tens of thousands of mainly elderly and health impaired people, and the other track is blocked with an yet unknown number of mainly younger people, start up entrepreneurs and younger people who will get cancer or some other expensive disease over the next say decade.

Government threw the switch and obviously - nobody knows at this stage whether they made the right decision (and I suspect the view on what is right will always depend on which track the individual is sitting), but I think a bit wider discussion about the cost of both options (and I assume there are many other tracks in between) would be appropriate.

[Timesurfer]

The mind boggles at the prices being driven up. There is a long way to go before we fully appreciate what the impact of this thing is going to be.
In the UK for example, case numbers are estimated to be 10 times recorded because they are only testing people in hospitals, so the bulk of people are not recorded. For instance, rest homes are not tested, so if you get in there or die in a rest home you do not die of COVID-19 officially. Thy also have numerous doctors on ventilators and these are people in their 30s. While some people show no symptoms but are carriers, if you are lucky enough to have the right genes then you cough your lungs up no matter your age. Lots yet to understand about this thing and what the final impact will be globally.

[bottomfeeder]

I am just sitting tight until the rest of my equity holdings, fall to nil value then I am out if the share market.

[Lewylewylewy]

I think the recent bounce was started by lots of newbies starting trading (as supported from data from sharesies) then continued due to rally following rise then continued due to stats nz's recent announcements saying that everythings good.

Im not sure what to believe, but i do think that there were some bargains had for businesses whos price is below nta where nta is heavily dependant on real estate. I.e. AIA and SUM.

[ratkin]

I think the recent bounce was started by lots of newbies starting trading (as supported from data from sharesies) then continued due to rally following rise then continued due to stats nz's recent announcements saying that everythings good.

Im not sure what to believe, but i do think that there were some bargains had for businesses whos price is below nta where nta is heavily dependant on real estate. I.e. AIA and SUM.

Certainly some bargains about Two days ago when the market crashed, it the people jumping in now at 20% higher valuations who may be caught. Best to buy on the very bad days. Ones where you are too scared to check your portfolio value.
Very easy on days like today to feel you are missing out by not jumping in. Fear of being left behind in the race back to the top.

[Cadalac123]

The mind boggles at the prices being driven up. There is a long way to go before we fully appreciate what the impact of this thing is going to be.
In the UK for example, case numbers are estimated to be 10 times recorded because they are only testing people in hospitals, so the bulk of people are not recorded. For instance, rest homes are not tested, so if you get in there or die in a rest home you do not die of COVID-19 officially. Thy also have numerous doctors on ventilators and these are people in their 30s. While some people show no symptoms but are carriers, if you are lucky enough to have the right genes then you cough your lungs up no matter your age. Lots yet to understand about this thing and what the final impact will be globally.

Agreed, even our beloved Serko rising up to 40% today was ridiculous.
Then again, it's fallen quite a long way down.

[Lewylewylewy]

To add to my previous post, there's also lots of stimulus packages coming out around the world.

The question is, is this enough to whomp enough companies and individuals to create a recession following covid19. The next question is whether such a recession would be NZ, specific countries or global.

Personally i feel that there are some bargains out there, some risky shares (more than you might expect if you haven't analysed each one yet!) and some fairly priced shares.

I agree about the feeling of missing out. This might act as a level of support if it goes down again.

My suspicion is that it won't go back to where it was, but itd be good to look at the volume of trades that pushed the prices up to these levels before forming a solid opinion.

[Valuegrowth]

I don’t really understand these articles. Yeah so a company growing with extreme eps quarter and quarter is going to lag a stalwart growing at 0-3percent . When was this ever a phenomenon?


There are some good things in this article.

Throughout market history, investors have repeatedly abandoned this simple principle during periods where bull market advances seemed to defy logic. Ultimately, those investors paid a dear price for their speculation as the reality of "overpaying for value" led to poor financial outcomes.
The market's surge higher since the financial crisis, which has been driven by massive fiscal and monetary policies, has been nothing short of extraordinary.

As Michael Lebowitz, CFA, previously noted:
"As a result of these behaviors and actions, we have witnessed an anomaly in what has historically spelled success for investors. Stronger companies with predictable income generation and solid balance sheets have grossly underperformed companies with unreliable earnings and over-burdened balance sheets. The prospect of majestic future growth has trumped dependable growth. Companies with little to no income and massive debts have been the winners."


I would like to go behind well-established stronger companies with predictable income generation and solid balance sheets. If they are cash cow, zero debt or low debt then it is a plus point. Given the current situation, I would put my money in companies that know how to manage their finances. Weathering economic storms can be a struggle for heavily-indebted companies, making them less attractive stocks to buy. They also can not respond quickly to opportunities. On the other hand, cash rich companies can respond quickly to opportunities. Buying growth companies at a great discount is a good strategy. I see extended P/E ratio for many growth companies thanks to long bull market. In my opinion, the best time for value investors to buy stocks is in a market panic. It should be selective according to the situation and company should have a strong balance sheet and should trade at a very attractive price. In fact corona created some great value stocks. When I was following global markets, I saw some bigger shifts in global stock markets over the last week. Some stocks had strong demand when markets tanked.

[frostyboy]

To add to my previous post, there's also lots of stimulus packages coming out around the world.

The question is, is this enough to whomp enough companies and individuals to create a recession following covid19. The next question is whether such a recession would be NZ, specific countries or global.

Personally i feel that there are some bargains out there, some risky shares (more than you might expect if you haven't analysed each one yet!) and some fairly priced shares.

I agree about the feeling of missing out. This might act as a level of support if it goes down again.

My suspicion is that it won't go back to where it was, but itd be good to look at the volume of trades that pushed the prices up to these levels before forming a solid opinion.


The stimulus is to try and reduce the recession that has already started.

It won't be enough, NZ finance minister admits his stimulus cant stop business failure and redundancies just reduce them. NZ has one of the biggest stimulus packages.

I've checked NZ power shares, volume on price action doesn't suggest bottom is in, maybe this sector could have the bottoming type that doesn't need the volume

I checked South Korea Index, volume on price action suggests bottom isn't in


"Longitudinal research has shown that since the beginning of the 20th century, every bear market has spawned at least one rally of five percent or more, and then proceeded lower, before the market begins an uptrend. That means that every bear market has at least one, and usually more, sucker rallies"

[Lewylewylewy]

Good point about foreign indexes. Nzx might find its level, but a fall abroad usually equates to a subsequent fall here.

[value_investor]

Took yesterday as a buying chance and it made me look like a wizard, perhaps I should drop my profession and start a career as a online guru and so called market timer. Even broken clocks are right 2x a day right. I've held cash the past 6 months just because there hasn't been much value propositions.

In all seriousness, I'm just finding little pockets of unbelievable value and staggering my money into the market. Into individual stocks right now, I like getting into the US markets through USF but I see more long term pain there when the real statistics come out of how bad the situation will be.

[Joshuatree]

DOW has had the worst week ever and worst month since 1931 (CNBC) More to come imo.

And now the DOW has had its best day since 1933 up 11.4%

Today.Futures were well in the green but have turned red atpit.

[ynot]

Can't help but think this is drop is far from over. Beware the falling knife. It can be savage.

[Balance]

Took yesterday as a buying chance and it made me look like a wizard, perhaps I should drop my profession and start a career as a online guru and so called market timer. Even broken clocks are right 2x a day right. I've held cash the past 6 months just because there hasn't been much value propositions.

In all seriousness, I'm just finding little pockets of unbelievable value and staggering my money into the market. Into individual stocks right now, I like getting into the US markets through USF but I see more long term pain there when the real statistics come out of how bad the situation will be.

Plus, there's a buffoon in charge there who is attempting a massive cover-up of how really bad the problem is.

Got a message from a friend in Virginia overnight - she operates an organic health & beauty spa there. A doctor client of her spa has not been well, went for a virus test and a week later is still waiting for the result! Her view - 'Those numbers they are rep[orting do not include tens of thousands of pending cases ..."

[JBmurc]

Can't help but think this is drop is far from over. Beware the falling knife. It can be savage.

Yes dead cat bounce will soon turn further down sadly >> has allowed me to exit a couple companies .... funds going into Gold/silver companies

Gold up 5.6% the largest daily move in history.. ANZ bank see's $2,000USD to be crossed during 2Q20-

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-16/Gold-price-undervalued-could-rise-to-2-000-an-ounce-in-Q2-ANZ-Bank.html

[Baa_Baa]

SP action past couple of days looking like DCB/Bear Trap. SP’s rose quickly but petering out already, a fizzer setup for further falls?

Have a look at the remarkable symmetry of your favourite share chart to the DOW30 futures chart.

There’s heaps of bad business and economy news to come, no need to rush into buying apparently beaten down share prices. IMHO

Patience.

[ratkin]

The US jobless figures should make an interesting read, although not sure what day they are counted to. Bound to come out way under the true figure

[Valuegrowth]

Value investor said:

In all seriousness, I'm just finding little pockets of unbelievable value and staggering my money into the market. Into individual stocks right now,

There are staples and drugs companies that are doing well now and will do future too. They could become corona winners. I agree we find unbelievable value in individual global stocks which include USA. My plate is fill with food. I am waiting for some growth stocks to become value stocks.

[RupertBear]

SP action past couple of days looking like DCB/Bear Trap. SP’s rose quickly but petering out already, a fizzer setup for further falls?

Have a look at the remarkable symmetry of your favourite share chart to the DOW30 futures chart.

There’s heaps of bad business and economy news to come, no need to rush into buying apparently beaten down share prices. IMHO

Patience.

Thanks for posting your thoughts BaaBaa :)

[Crypto Crude]

Hey rupert bear,
This is exactly how I see it aswell...
The comfort we had from the Quantitative easing measures will subside and the real forces will continue to come to the foray...
Half of the world's population is now in lockdown....
Heaps of bad news to come unfortunately...
:cool:
.^sc

[ratkin]

Market has now gone up 20% from the low, this could be the last day of the rally, and a good second chance to remove any portfolio dogs.

[Bjauck]

Market has now gone up 20% from the low, this could be the last day of the rally, and a good second chance to remove any portfolio dogs.
Which NZX50 companies do you think are dogs - and do not yet have share prices that reflect that - in the current situation?

[blackcap]

Market has now gone up 20% from the low, this could be the last day of the rally, and a good second chance to remove any portfolio dogs.

Market looks like it will go up sharply today. Dow is currently up 4.5%.

[Dlownz]

Market looks like it will go up sharply today. Dow is currently up 4.5%.

Agree. Just a false rally to draw in some suckers. Next weeks figures will undo all the u.s gains in the last week.
There's only one way this is going

[blackcap]

Agree. Just a false rally to draw in some suckers. Next weeks figures will undo all the u.s gains in the last week.
There's only one way this is going

The figures in the US are already out. 3.5m extra unemployed. Yet the Dow goes up by 6%. I think with QE we will see asset price increases. Quite possible that markets cannot really go down. Individual companies may fail but the market as a whole will probably rise sharply in proportion to the QE that is enabled.

[Balance]

The figures in the US are already out. 3.5m extra unemployed. Yet the Dow goes up by 6%. I think with QE we will see asset price increases. Quite possible that markets cannot really go down. Individual companies may fail but the market as a whole will probably rise sharply in proportion to the QE that is enabled.

Stockmarket 101 - market prices risk & reward ahead, not backwards.

Governments have already boldly stated that they will not allow their economies to fall into depression - if need be, they will pump all the money needed to achieve that aim.

That's why the worse than expected unemployment number is considered 'good' news ion that respect.

Many of the petrified investors & posters have not thought through the implications of what that mean - think about it.

It has profound implications for the money you have in the bank or in your mattress.

[BlackPeter]

Agree. Just a false rally to draw in some suckers. Next weeks figures will undo all the u.s gains in the last week.
There's only one way this is going

Rally might well last until March 31. This is the day the fund managers need to report their quarterly losses - and they will want to keep them low :):

[Balance]

Agree. Just a false rally to draw in some suckers. Next weeks figures will undo all the u.s gains in the last week.
There's only one way this is going

Feel the fear out there?


Remember this from the world's greatest living investor - the man who has lived and managed the biggest investment portfolio through numerous crisis, each bigger than the other.

His investment portfolio not only survived but thrived post each of the crisis.

This is what Warren Buffett said :

"Our goal is more modest :

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy

and

to be greedy only when others are fearful."

[allfromacell]

The bull is back :t_up:

[Entrep]

Market has now gone up 20% from the low, this could be the last day of the rally, and a good second chance to remove any portfolio dogs.

Good advice I think, will see how this day plays out


Feel the fear out there?


Remember this from the world's greatest living investor - the man who has lived and managed the biggest investment portfolio through numerous crisis, each bigger than the other.

His investment portfolio not only survived but thrived post each of the crisis.

This is what Warren Buffett said :

"Our goal is more modest :

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy

and

to be greedy only when others are fearful."


As in people are being greedy now?

[Balance]

The bull is back :t_up:

Nope - just an oversold market with institutions taking the opportunity to load up on what they perceive to be good value oversold stocks.

Sad for the retail investors who were spooked and sold out at horrendous losses in the last week.

[Balance]

As in people are being greedy now?

Up to you to decide.

[Balance]

Only a few? 10%-20% drop is nothing from here

23 March 2020 - what do you reckon - I think this is fear?

[sb9]

Nope - just an oversold market with institutions taking the opportunity to load up on what they perceive to be good value oversold stocks.

Sad for the retail investors who were spooked and sold out at horrendous losses in the last week.

Held my nerve must say, didn't do anything with my portfolio as far as selling or buying. Down a bit on few stocks, but overall not too bad as of now.

[allfromacell]

Nope - just an oversold market with institutions taking the opportunity to load up on what they perceive to be good value oversold stocks.

Sad for the retail investors who were spooked and sold out at horrendous losses in the last week.


DOW closed up over 20% from the fall, technically the DOW at-least is back in BULL mode. I don't suspect it will last considering the environment but with all the stimulus being announced who knows.

[Entrep]

23 March 2020 - what do you reckon - I think this is fear?

That was when the market was dumping. That was fear and was the time to buy (compared to prices today). Now US is roaring back to 2019 prices in the opposite direction, which I feel is greed given the whole outlook.

[Balance]

Held my nerve must say, didn't do anything with my portfolio as far as selling or buying. Down a bit on few stocks, but overall not too bad as of now.

Good on you, sb9.

Today is the time to let go of a few if anyone is uncomfortable and having sleepless nights with the size and nature of their investment portfolio.

Nothing is worth sleepless nights as health (physical & mental) is everything imo.

[Aaron]

Stockmarket 101 - market prices risk & reward ahead, not backwards.

Governments have already boldly stated that they will not allow their economies to fall into depression - if need be, they will pump all the money needed to achieve that aim.

That's why the worse than expected unemployment number is considered 'good' news ion that respect.

Many of the petrified investors & posters have not thought through the implications of what that mean - think about it.

It has profound implications for the money you have in the bank or in your mattress.

I wish I had your conviction, still hoping for another leg down based on past crisis. That said I have waited over a decade for the next leg down in the 2008/09 crisis.

Is there worse economic news to come, still seems like early days to me.Central banks going full retard, at what point will there be a loss of faith in currency? Everyone getting out of dollars and into shares would indicate a loss of faith already. Damn you Balance I was happy waiting a couple of months, now I am not sure again.

[Lewylewylewy]

I expect the nzx to level out for a while before the situation develops and people have new information about the outlook.

[Zaphod]

Unfortunately I fear that the worst is still to come in the US. I sold down in a few stocks, but will stay out of the market until things stabilise.

[Balance]

Play this if the market is getting you down :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rOiW_xY-kc

You are not alone!

[Balance]

Market has now gone up 20% from the low, this could be the last day of the rally, and a good second chance to remove any portfolio dogs.

Remember that 20% up from 60 is not the same as 40% down from 100!

I would certainly take the opportunity today to switch out of stocks which are unlikely to recover too well post-virus and put into stocks which would recover.

To each their own.

[Entrep]

Anecdotally I've been hearing massive institutional selling from brokers and my wife tells me FB is full of people wanting to buy shares because they are cheap.

[Balance]

Anecdotally I've been hearing massive institutional selling from brokers and my wife tells me FB is full of people wanting to buy shares because they are cheap.

FB people do not determine the direction of the market - the institutions do.

Many stocks were oversold - that's why the market is going up. As simple as that imo.

[see weed]

I wish I had your conviction, still hoping for another leg down based on past crisis. That said I have waited over a decade for the next leg down in the 2008/09 crisis.

Is there worse economic news to come, still seems like early days to me.Central banks going full retard, at what point will there be a loss of faith in currency? Everyone getting out of dollars and into shares would indicate a loss of faith already. Damn you Balance I was happy waiting a couple of months, now I am not sure again.
Have some fun trading while you wait. Bought 15000 MEL on close yesterday to get the div. but decided to sell them and made over double the div. 19c profit for 10 min work:t_up:.

[Entrep]

FB people do not determine the direction of the market - the institutions do.

Many stocks were oversold - that's why the market is going up. As simple as that imo.

Didn't you just claim individuals got rekt panicking and selling? So they caused the dumping on Monday?

[dabsman]

How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued. I'm not a trader in any way but I've sold and repurchased the same shares. I now own 30% more OCA shares for less capital tied up and a similar percentage of HGH for similar money laid down. I didn't sell my WBC shares (doh!) but brought the average price down to $20 (now looking at massive DRP growth long term). I look at it as a time for housekeeping/spring cleaning. Getting rid of ones that have done their dash (MET) and buying others I've had my eye on a while (BRM) as an example

I was also very heavily exposed to the retirment sector so will slowly unwind that in this market too

I also moved my Kiwisaver into conservative about 2 weeks ago and back into growth last friday. I've lost 6% on these funds and the fund hasn't booked in the big gains the last 3 days. I should be up quite a bit. If I left as is (like the experts are saying) then the fund I moved out of lost 34% from when I moved. Lucky break maybe?

What I have learnt is I know very little about buying and selling timing. I tended to sell on days where there was big drops and buy on days when it was rising. If I could have a bit more skill just on this timing I think I'd be 10% better off currently. I'm not meaning trying to time the top or the bottom just better execution of the plan - i.e. I decide to sell. Do I drip amount in to a rising day or dump it and move on. Reading depth better is something I need to understand better. I also ended up buying more than I wanted one day purley because I forgot about a buy order - noob!

[youngatheart]

I can't help but think that over the weekend in the US, as reports flood in of the tsunami of deaths from the CV virus as well as the sheer numbers of the now unemployed hit home, that it is going to have a massive negative impact on the Dow on their Monday (our Tuesday)....

But what would I know? Didn't expect the Dow to rise after news of a record 3.3 million unemployed either....

[clip]

I can't help but think that over the weekend in the US, as reports flood in of the tsunami of deaths from the CV virus as well as the sheer numbers of the now unemployed hit home, that it is going to have a massive negative impact on the Dow on their Monday (our Tuesday)....

But what would I know? Didn't expect the Dow to rise after news of a record 3.3 million unemployed either....

I am thinking the same, see they now have the most cases in the world, and over 13k new cases - surprised futures are still positive (just)

11157

[blackcap]

I am thinking the same, see they now have the most cases in the world, and over 13k new cases - surprised futures are still positive (just)

11157

From a market point of view all these deaths of "majority" old people is probably a huge positive looking long term. So not really surprised at the futures. Markets have absolutely no empathy or feelings.

[mondograss]

I am thinking the same, see they now have the most cases in the world, and over 13k new cases - surprised futures are still positive (just)

11157

+ another 14000 cases in the last 24 hours, and another 174 deaths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[workingdad]

I think the next trend downward in markets will be a more prolonged episode. The Markets initial response was a panic type situation reacting to the news and unknown but the next one will be in response to the realities of how hard this is hitting and as such I suspect will be more sobering.

[BlackPeter]

I think the next trend downward in markets will be a more prolonged episode. The Markets initial response was a panic type situation reacting to the news and unknown but the next one will be in response to the realities of how hard this is hitting and as such I suspect will be more sobering.

I guess nobody can predict how this will play out, but I agree - based on the current knowledge your assumption has some merit.

But obviously
- if the rumors / early indications that some of the existing viral medicines can be effectively used to cure the Coronavirus are true, then we might see as well a very fast recovery.
- if we find out that most of the population had the virus already (without symptoms) and the virus is starting to run early into herd immunity, than the picture will change violently towards positive.

on the other hand ...
- if we get this terrible mutation which increases mortality (not likely, but social media love to raise this option) than the first leg down will look like a walk in the sunshine ...

Still - I am an optimist ...

[Ggcc]

Anyone ever thought we might see a v curve? I was only thinking everyone is super negative. I don’t see it, but hoped others would

[Balance]

Anyone ever thought we might see a v curve? I was only thinking everyone is super negative. I don’t see it, but hoped others would

Everyone super negative?

Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.

Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!

[Chinesekiwi]

How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued. I'm not a trader in any way but I've sold and repurchased the same shares. I now own 30% more OCA shares for less capital tied up and a similar percentage of HGH for similar money laid down. I didn't sell my WBC shares (doh!) but brought the average price down to $20 (now looking at massive DRP growth long term). I look at it as a time for housekeeping/spring cleaning. Getting rid of ones that have done their dash (MET) and buying others I've had my eye on a while (BRM) as an example

I was also very heavily exposed to the retirment sector so will slowly unwind that in this market too

I also moved my Kiwisaver into conservative about 2 weeks ago and back into growth last friday. I've lost 6% on these funds and the fund hasn't booked in the big gains the last 3 days. I should be up quite a bit. If I left as is (like the experts are saying) then the fund I moved out of lost 34% from when I moved. Lucky break maybe?

What I have learnt is I know very little about buying and selling timing. I tended to sell on days where there was big drops and buy on days when it was rising. If I could have a bit more skill just on this timing I think I'd be 10% better off currently. I'm not meaning trying to time the top or the bottom just better execution of the plan - i.e. I decide to sell. Do I drip amount in to a rising day or dump it and move on. Reading depth better is something I need to understand better. I also ended up buying more than I wanted one day purley because I forgot about a buy order - noob!


Lol - don't feel bad. I am a relative newby to 'investing' and put in some really low buy offers (at the time) and then got carried away with work.

Forgot about the orders and now am the proud owner of KMD and a whole lot more OCA shares - oops.

[jonu]

Everyone super negative?

Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.

Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!

bull... has been very quiet of late. Something of a relief.

[Raz]

Everyone super negative?

Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.

Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!

A lot of people in commerce i deal with do not believe this will last longer than 8 weeks or not result in a decent recovery when it concludes, that is in contrast to the medical perspective I hear, so who will be right....

[winner69]

bull... has been very quiet of late. Something of a relief.

I hope bull is OK and hasn’t been struck down with something

[Joshuatree]

Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."

His posts are essential for some balance imo.

[Leftfield]

How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued.....

IMHO you are doing exactly the right thing and I've been doing the same thing.

It's a great time lower your average hold SP on high conviction holds, realise a few profits, cash up and wait for opportunities.

Bit like the orchardist doing winter pruning in preparation for the spring to come.

[Lewylewylewy]

Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."

His posts are essential for some balance imo.

Agreed!!!!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

NZX has perfectly rejected the resistance at the previous high point set on the 18th, but still in an hourly uptrend.

My base case is that this is just a bull trap as I really don't think people appreciate the economic impacts we are going to see. Letting the market decided whether I should be bull or bear though.

[sb9]

Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."

His posts are essential for some balance imo.

Wishing him and his family all the best.

[peat]

Wishing him and his family all the best.

Bull abdicated from the forum during the lockdown as he is with family , his absence is not unexpected.

Stay safe from the rona, everybody - apparently that's what the kids call it.

which is only funny coz I actually have an Aunt Rona who lives in SUM village SUM where.


Edit: I'm hopeful of a quicker recovery than most folk , but don't think the worst is over yet. And it could go bad still. As in really bad. But it probably wont. Who knows.
But business is built on optimism so one must keep digging to find it.
But I am still quite weary of the claw, so have mainly been speculating playing the market as I see it from hour to hour.

[ratkin]

What happened to the market, went for a walk most stocks were up 5-10% by time arrived home they all red.

Thought people were being a little too optimistic, traders would have made a killing last Three days, but you have to be pretty crazy leaving money on the table going onto the weekend.

[Ggcc]

Everyone super negative?

Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.

Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!
True maybe not everyone, just a lot of posters

[Harley]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNboV7Uhg-8

[Valuegrowth]

I saw somewhere bull is back for DOW and Canadian stocks. When market is up there are analysts to upgrade stocks. How did Dow Jones Industrial Average go up by more than 20% from recent low on March 23 despite gloomy outlook for job market? According to market analysts, this week's action has sent some encouraging signals and the market has already factored the bad news into the price. One thing is visible in global stock markets. Irrespective of corona there or not, investors are looking for individual stocks. Going forward, will the value stocks beat growth stocks?

[Cadalac123]

I saw somewhere bull is back for DOW and Canadian stocks. When market is up there are analysts to upgrade stocks. How did Dow Jones Industrial Average go up by more than 20% from recent low on March 23 despite gloomy outlook for job market? According to market analysts, this week's action has sent some encouraging signals and the market has already factored the bad news into the price. One thing is visible in global stock markets. Irrespective of corona there or not, investors are looking for individual stocks. Going forward, will the value stocks beat growth stocks?

Maybe some value stocks will beat growth stocks in the short term through price action, but story will probably stay the same, value stocks great for 10 years and modest returns.

Proper active stock analysis of growth companies will and always have yield significantly higher returns. Obviously picking bad growth stocks will be bad like always

[aquaman]

Will this be a Gummy bear or Grizzly bear?

Some interesting reading

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/03/27/is-coronavirus-driving-a-recession-depression-or-an-economic-hit-like-no-other/

[ynot]

Looks like the 2 trillion effect on the market is taking a breather. Another black Monday ahead.

[Balance]

Looks like the 2 trillion effect on the market is taking a breather. Another black Monday ahead.

Conclusive proof that the market prices risk & reward ahead, and buy the rumour, sell the fact.

Nothing to do with the $2 trillion not having a positive impact.

Same as the US market rocketing up yesterday on record unemployment - where was the negative effect?

Stock market 101.

[Valuegrowth]

How about food stocks listed in this Article? Demand was visible for food companies like General Mills(GIS), Kellogg (K), Campbell soup(CPB)and Call-Mine Eggs(CALM).
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/9-of-the-best-food-stocks-to-buy-right-now-2020-03-25

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-27-2020-221609874.html

Biggest weekly rise by the Dow in 82 years - how’s that for putting things in perspective?

[Baa_Baa]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-27-2020-221609874.html

Biggest weekly rise by the Dow in 82 years - how’s that for putting things in perspective?

What perspective is that you refer to, to be even more cautious? https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/treat-with-caution-rocketing-stocks-arent-cause-for-comfort-2120653

[Balance]

What perspective is that you refer to, to be even more cautious? https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/treat-with-caution-rocketing-stocks-arent-cause-for-comfort-2120653

20% up on 60 = not the same as 20% down on 100.

[Crypto Crude]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-27-2020-221609874.html

Biggest weekly rise by the Dow in 82 years - how’s that for putting things in perspective?

The DOW only rose like that because it fell so so hard...higher volitialy is higher risk... it's just a bear trap anyway.....you dont have the start of a bear market and then a few weeks later think it's all over... all the info suggests a far far deeper recession to come.... the 2 trillion will get spent and then we get a reality check...
Dont be left holding the baby, plenty of time to scoop up the juicy nuggets later on... I might even have to have a dabble in the stocks first time in yearrrssssssss....
:cool:
.^sc

[Cyclical]

20% up on 60 = not the same as 20% down on 100.

Good point and easy to overlook. It's only recovered 12% of the original 100.

[Balance]

Good point and easy to overlook. It's only recovered 12% of the original 100.

The tsunami of trillions of dollars being printed - think through the implications for your money sitting in the bank today.

[Hoop]

The DOW only rose like that because it fell so so hard...higher volitialy is higher risk... it's just a bear trap anyway.....you dont have the start of a bear market and then a few weeks later think it's all over... all the info suggests a far far deeper recession to come.... the 2 trillion will get spent and then we get a reality check...
Dont be left holding the baby, plenty of time to scoop up the juicy nuggets later on... I might even have to have a dabble in the stocks first time in yearrrssssssss....
:cool:
.^sc

Quote:- you dont have the start of a bear market and then a few weeks later think it's all over.

It has happened before a number of times in fact...I'm not suggesting it will happen this time...It may, it may not.
From my archives
11171

[bull....]

The link below is to a photo album with a picture of the current sp500 chart which shows the break down out of the 2009 - 2020 bull market. the current rally is retesting the break down line. The numbers are elliott wave counts we are now in a bear decline similar to 2007 time period but more than likely more severe in market decline. the projected counts suggest this and modelled together with economic data confirms this.
the grey shaded area is the likely end of the re test area some where between 2600 - 2750.( it did get into that area thurs / fri so next few days will confirm if thats the end of the re - action rally) the grey area was found from taking the all time high of the sp500 and the current low since the high and projecting the retrace.

https://i.ibb.co/PxqWyP0/Screen-Hunter-472-Mar-29-11-20.jpg (https://i.ibb.co/PxqWyP0/Screen-Hunter-472-Mar-29-11-20.jpg)


heres some good reading also from NOURIEL ROUBINI (https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/nouriel-roubini?a_la=english&a_d=&a_m=60bc7c0246f86f2c0f9a2f0b&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fcommentary%2Fcoronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03&a_li=nouriel-roubini&a_pa=article-bottom&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=)


This trifecta of risks – uncontained pandemics, insufficient economic-policy arsenals, and geopolitical white swans – will be enough to tip the global economy into persistent depression and a runaway financial-market meltdown

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03

[Balance]

This trifecta of risks – uncontained pandemics, insufficient economic-policy arsenals, and geopolitical white swans – will be enough to tip the global economy into persistent depression and a runaway financial-market meltdown

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glossary-federal-reserves-emergency-measures-coronavirus-bazookas-120337473.html

You reckon without the unlimited amount of $$$$ which will be pumped into the global economies.

G20 on the verge of announcing a package to pump $5 trillion (5,000,000,000,000) into their economies. Plenty more to follow as printed money is FREE.

Universal payment of a living wage to all citizens of working age - that's in the pipeline too.

Think through the implications.

Not a time for doomsday scenarios - but to consider carefully what is most likely to happen when that tsunami of $$$$ floods the global markets.

I believe some of us have, know what we are going to do and we will let you all know what we do when we have done it!

[BlackPeter]

...

heres some good reading also from NOURIEL ROUBINI (https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/nouriel-roubini?a_la=english&a_d=&a_m=60bc7c0246f86f2c0f9a2f0b&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fcommentary%2Fcoronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03&a_li=nouriel-roubini&a_pa=article-bottom&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=)


This trifecta of risks – uncontained pandemics, insufficient economic-policy arsenals, and geopolitical white swans – will be enough to tip the global economy into persistent depression and a runaway financial-market meltdown

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03

Lovely bedtime reading ... and sure, it all could happen.

The author however forgot to mention the looming nuclear war between North Korea and the US (with South Korea and Japan toast) as well as the tsunami of Corona virus infected zombies which will flood Europe (coming from Asia / Africa), the US (coming from Central America) and Australia (coming on boats from SE Asia) which will kill anybody in its way.

Plenty of opportunities for things to deteriorate, even if the Brexiting Brits wouldn't attack the continent with their nuclear arsenal. You see - nuclear radiation disinfects :); Of course - we still forgot the Russians in this game, who will use the power vacuum in the Middle East and expand their territory through Turkey and Syria / Iraq with direct access to the Indian Ocean.

Don't get me started to develop a worst case scenario :) - your horror author is a pussy cat with little fantasy.:

But let's not forget that the worst Covid-19 is likely to do is killing something like half of the typical annual growth of the human population (and this is highly unlikely caused by the virus, but yes, supply shortages of essential goods like food might turn into a problem), while WWII made a real dent in the population statistics. During WWII most of the existing European manufacturing infrastructure was turned to rubble, while after Covid-19 people just need to enter the factories and turn on the switch again.

But of course - Covid-19 will create the bigliest disaster ever - same as Trump made America great again. Look - they are already leading the Covid-19 league.

Got a bit darker stuff to read?

[allfromacell]

Good to see that new case number growth has declined for the 3rd straight day. A shame about the death though, RIP.

[Valuegrowth]

Some say as pessimism is widespread it’s actually good for stocks. Bull markets have historically emerged from a universe filled with pessimism or with array of worries. The same scenario happened in December 2018 amid the 23% bear-market drop by the NASDAQ. Any Corona weakness or reaching corona peak also could generate demand for stocks. Finally, Lower interest rates generally support asset prices whether it be equities, bonds, or property. It is a worry for those with money in bank deposits when there are negative interests or very low interest rates.

[jonu]

The tsunami of trillions of dollars being printed - think through the implications for your money sitting in the bank today.

Good time to be in debt as long as you're locked in on low interest and can service it.

[JBmurc]

Good time to be in debt as long as you're locked in on low interest and can service it.

And you have invested it wisely ..the guys locked in tourism commercial property must be stressed currently as they all believed nothing could stop the growth.. and I know looking over the southern lakes region getting 4-5% return was common

[macduffy]

And you have invested it wisely ..the guys locked in tourism commercial property must be stressed currently as they all believed nothing could stop the growth.. and I know looking over the southern lakes region getting 4-5% return was common

Reminds me of the heady days of the boom in export of Australian minerals to China circa 1990's. "Stronger for longer" was the message from the CEO of Oxiana - shortly before that company was forced to restructure as OZ Minerals!

[Entrep]

Why US going up? Window dressing or short squeeze? I am sitting on some nice gains from my buys the last few weeks and am thinking pretty darn hard about selling to buy back later

[blackcap]

Why US going up? Window dressing or short squeeze? I am sitting on some nice gains from my buys the last few weeks and am thinking pretty darn hard about selling to buy back later

Why would they go down? They are pumping trillions into their economy. This will cause asset prices to rise. Stocks are net assets. Also their economy is strong enough to weather the blip. Not everything is in shutdown in the US. However there is a caveat. If interest rates start rising then all bets are off.

[Balance]

Why US going up? Window dressing or short squeeze? I am sitting on some nice gains from my buys the last few weeks and am thinking pretty darn hard about selling to buy back later


Tomorrow? What’s the rush. Next few weeks will be BRUTAL

You are all over the place.

Stick to some time-tested investment principles, take a view and you may yet make sense out of this market - once in every 10 years opportunity.

[Entrep]

You are all over the place.

Stick to some time-tested investment principles, take a view and you may yet make sense out of this market - once in every 10 years opportunity.

What are the conflicts in those 2 posts? Piece has continued to rise and I’ve remained bearish

[Balance]

What are the conflicts in those 2 posts? Piece has continued to rise and I’ve remained bearish

In which case, you should take the opportunity of the unexpected market rise and sell?

[kiora]

Why US going up? Window dressing or short squeeze? I am sitting on some nice gains from my buys the last few weeks and am thinking pretty darn hard about selling to buy back later

Likely to be part of Portfolio rebalancing.
As bonds have gone up,stocks down a lot of money needs to move from bonds to shares to rebalance their funds

[peat]

I red somewhere today that a fund manager thinks we're in no mans land.
Too late to sell and to soon to buy.

[Lewylewylewy]

I red somewhere today that a fund manager thinks we're in no mans land.
Too late to sell and to soon to buy.

Id certainly agree with that sentiment.

[Joshuatree]

Thats how i feel too atpit, i was so sure of more big drops but all these Gimungus stimulations going on have bounced the economy side of peoples brains and dislocated their Human side. Reminds me of this superb movie and makes me wonder about human booby traps we little investors are ,enmeshed in amongst the algorithms, bots, ruthless banks, Instos, manipulators and the privileged big boys.

PreviewPreview2:03No Man's Land (2001) - French (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=2ahUKEwjXzdiS_MvoAhUtyTgGHT9RD2UQwqsBMAZ6BAgaE Ak&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dxu z49sin23I&usg=AOvVaw06BGx4oPhQsnqLAwKGCpFD)

[Bobdn]

I red somewhere today that a fund manager thinks we're in no mans land.
Too late to sell and to soon to buy.

It's that way for sure so I'm just doing things around the edges like drip feeding into index funds on a weekly basis and the other week I switched my kiwisaver fund from conservative (30 per cent equities) to 100 per cent equities. My switch must have happened around 23 March because I went from being 13 per cent down to just 6 per cent down this week. A bright spot in what has been the worst month since October 1987 for me.

Doing these sort of things makes me feel Like I'm taking the fight to the bear without stressing me out too much.

I do love the drip feed into index funds. I do it no matter what so a down day is never a completely bad day in a sense.

[ratkin]

Have decided I am going to ride this out the old fashioned way and wait for the Coppock curve to turn up before investing again. It generally works well enough in these big bear selloffs.

Nothing to suggest it does not go lower from here. Only thing that would get me buying would be treatment breakthrough.

11203

[bull....]

too much unknowns to invest

might even get worse , hope ardern realises this. after watching her on close up she seemed to think containing it in waves would be good as far as lock down goes. well WHO thinks differently.

Countries that rush to lift quarantine restrictions designed to contain the coronavirus pandemic risk an “even more severe and prolonged” economic downturn and a resurgence in COVID-19 cases

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/who-says-countries-that-rush-to-lift-coronavirus-containment-risk-more-severe-and-prolonged-damage-to-economy.html


heres industry breakdown of job losses , similar it will be in NZ. interesting that health care workers losing lots of jobs must be to do with deaths?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/this-chart-shows-which-industries-saw-big-job-losses-in-march-2020.html

[Bobdn]

Lots of uncertainties for sure. Will go lower most likely but I accumulated 8 years of cash going into this (and another 2 years of living expenses in a bond fund), if I'm not starting to deploy it now, I may never start deploying it. I invested a chunk at - 10 per cent, some at minus 20 per cent and some on 23 March when the market was close to - 35 per cent (almost - 40 per cent for the ASX!).

I'm just dollar cost averaging from now on. At 52 per cent equities going into this I've still lost a ton of money. I was not cashed up like most Sharetraders it seems.

PS - like many of us I've been following Gundlach and Marks for years and they seem to know what they're doing. So I'm under no illusion how uglier this could get it. However a little bit of dollar cost averaging never hurt anyone, I think.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/rogers-gundlach-say-the-worst-of-the-rout-has-yet-to-come

[value_investor]

I red somewhere today that a fund manager thinks we're in no mans land.
Too late to sell and to soon to buy.

I'd rather invest at regular intervals as time goes on from here. We'll eventually come out of this and the markets will again reach ATH's at some point in the future.

The people trying to time the bottom and then invest at that one point is a bit silly. To me its the same thing as everyone who tried to predict when the next recession would happen and sit on the sidelines and miss out on the growth period that was 2016-2019..

[bull....]

I'd rather invest at regular intervals as time goes on from here. We'll eventually come out of this and the markets will again reach ATH's at some point in the future.

The people trying to time the bottom and then invest at that one point is a bit silly. To me its the same thing as everyone who tried to predict when the next recession would happen and sit on the sidelines and miss out on the growth period that was 2016-2019..

ill probably dollar cost average at some stage when fundamentals catch up with reality.

reality example being sky city saying they will now be only a domestic operation for many years to come ( int travel is not going to rebound quickly) probably with a much reduced dividend to go with that.

should i invest now? or when reality of the world catches up with there reporting ? and i have a better idea of there dividend policy going forward. everyone must decide for them selves.

[ynot]

Have decided I am going to ride this out the old fashioned way and wait for the Coppock curve to turn up before investing again. It generally works well enough in these big bear selloffs.

Nothing to suggest it does not go lower from here. Only thing that would get me buying would be treatment breakthrough.

11203

Is that chart a free to access site ?

[Baa_Baa]

Is that chart a free to access site ? It's Yahoo Finance, free chart.

The Coppock study is based on a monthly chart, buy or sell when the Coppock line crosses zero. Going back to 1990, on the DOW, here's an illustration of how it might have worked out if it was the only trigger used for a buy or sell. https://invst.ly/qc8ox

[ratkin]

It's Yahoo Finance, free chart.

The Coppock study is based on a monthly chart, buy or sell when the Coppock line crosses zero. Going back to 1990, on the DOW, here's an illustration of how it might have worked out if it was the only trigger used for a buy or sell. https://invst.ly/qc8ox

I will not wait for it to cross zero, just for the line to turn upwards from under the zero line. I may be a little early or a little late, but by the time it happens the market should be substantially de risked.
Likely to be quite a few months away from that point

[ratkin]

Is that chart a free to access site ?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/chart?p=%5EDJI

It is a decent site, the only problem I have with it is the charts can be very slow to load. Especially when I use the ipad

[winner69]

Bit spooky how MR Coppock came up with 11 and 14 periods as part of his calculation - He was told by Episcopal bishops that the average person's mourning period is 11 to 14 months. Coppock inferred that a downtrend was like a mourning period, so he used these figures. The Coppock Curve is calculated as a 10-month WMA of the sum of the 14-month rate of change and the 11-month rate of change for the index.

[kiora]

Ratkin"The NZX 50 Coppock has been on the increase since 21-3 now just under 0 so you have been buying?

[Tomtom]

ill probably dollar cost average at some stage when fundamentals catch up with reality. For all the kerfuffle so far we still have some distance to go (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/04/01/regression-to-trend-another-look-at-long-term-market-performance) if we are to visit crisis levels in equities. My reading is that when the GDP and inflation (deflation?) numbers come out over the next few months we will really see if there is the political resolve to prevent a depression.

[Joshuatree]

Thread (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/saturday-sunday-4-5-april-asxspi200.5327501/#post-43876448) Redbacks threads on the ASX worth a squid.

[ratkin]

Ratkin"The NZX 50 Coppock has been on the increase since 21-3 now just under 0 so you have been buying?

Not according to the chart at Yahoo. Remember you have to use a monthly chart. On that the coppock has fallen nowhere near zero, and our market has held up far better than the US, which seems surprising, but if you look at it from 2006 we have not actually fallen much, although it feels like we have. But large segments of our market have not really fallen at all. A2, Spark, Chorus, Fph Ebos etc.


11210

[Balance]

For all the kerfuffle so far we still have some distance to go (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/04/01/regression-to-trend-another-look-at-long-term-market-performance) if we are to visit crisis levels in equities. My reading is that when the GDP and inflation (deflation?) numbers come out over the next few months we will really see if there is the political resolve to prevent a depression.

Political resolve to prevent a depression?

Don’t even have to spend 1 minute worrying about that - if need be, we will see ‘helicopter’ money pumped into global economies.

[kiora]

Not according to the chart at Yahoo. Remember you have to use a monthly chart. On that the coppock has fallen nowhere near zero, and our market has held up far better than the US, which seems surprising, but if you look at it from 2006 we have not actually fallen much, although it feels like we have. But large segments of our market have not really fallen at all. A2, Spark, Chorus, Fph Ebos etc.


11210

A ha,thanks my bad

[kiora]

Political resolve to prevent a depression?

Don’t even have to spend 1 minute worrying about that - if need be, we will see ‘helicopter’ money pumped into global economies.

So we don't need to do anything but wait for more helicopter money,sounds great.We can all go on holiday:)

[Balance]

So we don't need to do anything but wait for more helicopter money,sounds great.We can all go on holiday:)

Just have to think carefully about the effect on your money in the bank of the trillions of dollars being pumped (and more to come) into the financial system.

Not a time to holiday but to ponder carefully, I would have thought.

[kiora]

Just have to think carefully about the effect on your money in the bank of the trillions of dollars being pumped (and more to come) into the financial system.

Not a time to holiday but to ponder carefully, I would have thought.

Yes very carefully,stick to investing basics & not to be caught up in the drama of it all

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120822467/coronavirus-ministry-of-social-development-swamped-as-job-losses-mount

The aftermath is going to be absolutely horrendous post the lockdown - whenever that may be.

[bull....]

For all the kerfuffle so far we still have some distance to go (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/04/01/regression-to-trend-another-look-at-long-term-market-performance) if we are to visit crisis levels in equities. My reading is that when the GDP and inflation (deflation?) numbers come out over the next few months we will really see if there is the political resolve to prevent a depression.

markets just being propped up with money printing otherwise we would probably be 60% down already , but still might get there in time.

On that dollar cost averaging strategy i should have said i like doing that on the way up not on the way down. if you do it on the way down you are accepting a lower future return for less risk.

invest at $8
invest at $7
invest at $6
invest at $5

average $6.50 get the jist

current price $2 you have a long way to get your money back

dollar cost averaging way better on the way up

[kiora]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120822467/coronavirus-ministry-of-social-development-swamped-as-job-losses-mount

The aftermath is going to be absolutely horrendous post the lockdown - whenever that may be.

Massive S+#t about to hit the fan.I'm picking 3-400,000 unemployed.Yuck.
& Robinson suggesting a rent freeze. GHU.
When there is no rent coming in what are landlords going to do?
Property market will hit a big wall.
And then what happens to banks liquidity core funding ratio?
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-and-supervision/banks/prudential-requirements/liquidity-core-funding-ratio
At least there is liquidity in the share market.

[JBmurc]

Massive S+#t about to hit the fan.I'm picking 3-400,000 unemployed.Yuck.
& Robinson suggesting a rent freeze. GHU.
When there is no rent coming in what are landlords going to do?
Property market will hit a big wall.
And then what happens to banks liquidity core funding ratio?
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation-and-supervision/banks/prudential-requirements/liquidity-core-funding-ratio
At least there is liquidity in the share market.

Yes many kiwis will find ticking up to the eyeballs in property wasn't such a safe play... locally with Queenstown , Wanaka so many homes empty as Airbnb + all the new apartment blocks hitting the market ...+Tourism collapse = perfect storm of Deflation

[trackers]

Yes many kiwis will find ticking up to the eyeballs in property wasn't such a safe play... locally with Queenstown , Wanaka so many homes empty as Airbnb + all the new apartment blocks hitting the market ...+Tourism collapse = perfect storm of Deflation

I'm sure the years of 30+% price appreciation down there will adequately cover most of them though lol, only the newbies will truly wear it

[Balance]

I'm sure the years of 30+% price appreciation down there will adequately cover most of them though lol, only the newbies will truly wear it

Yup - always been that way.

The long term players are happily sitting on the sidelines, ready to punch on the distressed sellers, especially distressed newbies - as they have done for the last 50 years.

[mondograss]

FWIW a rent freeze doesn't mean not paying rent, it means not increasing it. Landlords will still get their rent (mostly).

Perhaps this thread could turn its mind to what the response could\should look like from the govt.

My pick is that they will write off some\all student debt for residents and offer some sort of abatement for returning kiwis as well:
A) Grant Robertson has some form in the area of tackling student debt, so it would be consistent with past behaviour.
B) It would redirect 12c in the dollar (after the first $20k income) of debt repayments from the govt to the wider economy for those still able to work.
C) Yes it's a $15b debt asset, so it would be a big write off, but much of that is from students now overseas who may not come back so you wouldn't write all of it off.
D) It would remove a sizeable impediment to getting a mortgage or a small business loan for many.
E) It could stimulate a net migration inflow of returning kiwis, particularly if the global economy is munted, which would be a positive for growth.
F) Some will say "Ta very much", decide there's no jobs out there, claim the dole and go off backpacking around the country for a year, but as long as they're supporting domestic tourism and maybe doing some fruit picking or other odd jobs etc along the way I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing.

Anyone else like to make a prediction.

[bull....]

World at risk of second Great Depression due to coronavirus, says Chinese central bankhttps://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3078519/world-risk-second-great-depression-due-coronavirus-says

[JBmurc]

I'm sure the years of 30+% price appreciation down there will adequately cover most of them though lol, only the newbies will truly wear it

Well the ones that have savings ... most just keeped using their increasing equity(as their properties increased) to buy more property or expand business interests ...thats been the mantra of most Kiwis wealthy or has it not ?? with 2-3% savings rates .... cheap debt NZ property always goes higher ...safe as cash in the bank

[causecelebre]

Have decided I am going to ride this out the old fashioned way and wait for the Coppock curve to turn up before investing again. It generally works well enough in these big bear selloffs.

Nothing to suggest it does not go lower from here. Only thing that would get me buying would be treatment breakthrough.

11203

Lol. Did you know Coppock used 11 and 14 periods for the RoC part of the algo because, according to and Episcopal Priest, it was the average mourning period of the death of a loved one. Kinda more relevant on more than one count

[causecelebre]

Sorry i think Winner69 already mentioned this. I had to comment before finishing catching up from the weekend

[youngatheart]

Dow Jones futures currently showing an opening up 600pts!

[ratkin]

Dow Jones futures currently showing an opening up 600pts!

Yeah it has put a rocket under the Aussie market. Europe may have now peaked, Aussies have it under control, and the weather warming up. It vanished fairlly quickly in China, you never know what is around the corner

[ratkin]

Lol. Did you know Coppock used 11 and 14 periods for the RoC part of the algo because, according to and Episcopal Priest, it was the average mourning period of the death of a loved one. Kinda more relevant on more than one count

Haha, yep makes some sense I guess. Would be the same with losing your money in the markets. It has certainly been pretty accurate (within a month or two) at picking the major bottoms of the market.

[Waikaka]

I was thinking about all the dividend cancellations and what it might mean for individuals and economy in general. Clearly tough on fixed income, kiwisaver and people with significant portfolios.

Quick list (incomplete?) of companies cancelling dividends due to Covid19:




Dividend (cents)
Securities issued
Amount cancelled


Z Energy
23.5
400,000,000
$94,000,000


Air NZ
11
1,122,810,044
$123,509,105


Auckland Airport
11
1,215,040,409
$133,654,445


Steel and Tube
1.5
165,997,540
$2,489,963


Kiwi Property
3.525
1,569,087,532
$55,310,336


Tourism Holdings
10
148,014,900
$ 14,801,490


Warehouse
10
346,843,120
$34,684,312


Fletcher's
11
824,256,416
$90,668,206


Briscoes
12.5
222,218,500
$27,777,313


Vista Group
2.1
166,467,447
$3,495,816



I have excluded banks as I am unsure about Australian parent company relationships and its effect on dividends.

Quick rough math suggest in the last month $580 million worth of dividends that would have been in shareholders pockets have been retained by companies.

I suppose it is relatively easy to cancel dividends but as that sugar rush of retained money is spent how far away are we from capital raising's and who are the most likely candidates?

[Cadalac123]

markets just being propped up with money printing otherwise we would probably be 60% down already , but still might get there in time.

On that dollar cost averaging strategy i should have said i like doing that on the way up not on the way down. if you do it on the way down you are accepting a lower future return for less risk.

invest at $8
invest at $7
invest at $6
invest at $5

average $6.50 get the jist

current price $2 you have a long way to get your money back

dollar cost averaging way better on the way up

Nice but you missed the part where you magically know the bottom has been in and there isn't a fake rally? so how exactly is this DCA method better than the other?
With this method you might end up picking up on fake rally tops and actually netting a bigger loss if it turns out the company you're in is negatively impacted too.

[bull....]

Nice but you missed the part where you magically know the bottom has been in and there isn't a fake rally? so how exactly is this DCA method better than the other?
With this method you might end up picking up on fake rally tops and actually netting a bigger loss if it turns out the company you're in is negatively impacted too.

combine with fundamentals and t/a analysis works fine on good companies in good trends. biggest chunk at the start.

[Valuegrowth]

Current situation has created new moneymaking opportunities for hedge funds,private equity firms and big investors.

Will this longest bull market run another one to two years given the current expansionary economic policy worldwide?

[Joshuatree]

Looks like it, and did i dream last night that the earth was invaded by a virus?
Anyways DOW up 3rd biggest gain ever 1627.6 points. Life is good.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like it, and did i dream last night that the earth was invaded by a virus?
Anyways DOW up 3rd biggest gain ever 1627.6 points. Life is good.

Trump said there was light at the end of the tunnel. They just haven't realised it is the oncoming train.....

[Aaron]

Trump said there was light at the end of the tunnel. They just haven't realised it is the oncoming train.....

I don't know the virus is getting under control in NZ and across a lot of the globe and the debt crisis I was concerned about will be sorted with easy money and low interest rates. So apart from a blip in GDP for the lockdown why wouldn't we be off to the races once a vaccine is discovered.

Technically speaking are we already back in a bull market?

[Leemsip]

I don't know the virus is getting under control in NZ and across a lot of the globe and the debt crisis I was concerned about will be sorted with easy money and low interest rates. So apart from a blip in GDP for the lockdown why wouldn't we be off to the races once a vaccine is discovered.

Technically speaking are we already back in a bull market?

Difficult to know whether to invest in some of the upcoming cap raises. AIA and on the asx OSH (oil and gas) and OOH (oudoor advertising). Pretty heavy dilution and difficult medium term outlooks for these companies. Probably see increases in the share prices in the short term which is a slightly different thing to being great investments...

[Cyclical]

Looks like it, and did i dream last night that the earth was invaded by a virus?
Anyways DOW up 3rd biggest gain ever 1627.6 points. Life is good.

It's crazy isn't it.

[BlackPeter]

Trump said there was light at the end of the tunnel. They just haven't realised it is the oncoming train.....

:lol: - Not new, but seldom used more appropriate ...

[BlackPeter]

I don't know the virus is getting under control in NZ and across a lot of the globe and the debt crisis I was concerned about will be sorted with easy money and low interest rates. So apart from a blip in GDP for the lockdown why wouldn't we be off to the races once a vaccine is discovered.

Technically speaking are we already back in a bull market?

Obviously - it all depends on future events nobody knows about.

However - if you imagine hundreds of thousands of dead bodies piling up in the US (and they will given the lack of political leadership over there - new cases doubling in the US currently in still less than a week) and if you see many other countries with third world health systems for the masses still waiting for the virus to statt biting (Africa, India, Philippines, Indonesia, Middle East) than it is difficult to imagine that we already passed the economic bottom.

No doubt, this shall pass as well, but I don't think we are there yet. It appears to me the likelihood for a lower low from here is higher than the likelihood for the bull continuing without further blib, but this is just me ...

[mondograss]

New York officials have admitted that they no longer have the resources to run a test on everyone that dies in their home so only those that have already tested positive are counted as COVID-19 deaths. Prior to the outbreak they averaged 20-25 deaths at home (for various reasons), now they're averaging 200+. Think about what that means for their official death toll.

[stealthmaster]

The bull is back...

[martinchnz1]

Some stocks trading at premiums to pre-Covid prices.
Too much like a hopeful bounce than any true digestion of the stimulus packages and covid projections, and assumptions around what will happen once restrictions are eased. Speculative bull at best. But I guess they always are.

[Entrep]

Funnymentals being ignored and no one wants to be holding USD. Stocks, gold, even crypto all up.

[stealthmaster]

Curve starting to flatten in NZ and other countries. Lots of stocks are oversold, prices should continue to rise

[ynot]

Curve starting to flatten in NZ and other countries. Lots of stocks are oversold, prices should continue to rise

I wouldn't be too quick to act, our economy is yet to take the brunt of a sizable beating.

[ratkin]

I wouldn't be too quick to act, our economy is yet to take the brunt of a sizable beating.

Yep he NZ chart is quite scary for how little it has fallen. All this upswing is just emotion based, but it will be the company numbers that determine the long term direction.

[ynot]

Absolutely. Not done by a long shot.

[JBmurc]

The bull is back...

the bull has just been pumped full of drugs to keep standing ..won't last the Depression is coming as the everything bubble pops

[macduffy]

Agreed, JB. Far too early to emulate George W's famous declaration of victory!

:ohmy:

[blobbles]

Sucker rally? Seems ridiculous when the effects on the economy haven't even started yet... unless this is the final sign that we absolutely have a 2 stream economy, one that is simply pumped by printing (QE infinity) and one that people actually live in, with a bit of leakage from one to the other through housing. If we have wall street get back into a bull market while normal businesses and economies are falling over on main street, it certainly will show a complete disconnect between the two. Would mean a companies ability to balance it's books and be profitable don't matter anymore, the only thing that matters is how much printed money they are getting. At that point the stock market becomes a game of who has the best lobbyists, who has the cosiest relationship with the Trump administration/Federal Reserve and who can threaten the government the most by claiming poverty.

Last report I read said at least 16% of American companies are zombie companies (which should be cleaned out in a recession). If that doesn't happen, there goes another hit to long term productivity.

[Blue Horseshoe]

ASX not fooled, down 1.4%

[GTM 3442]

I'm inclined to wonder how much market activity is being conducted by various bots, algorithms, and whatnot, all running outside their design parameters.

[blobbles]

I'm inclined to wonder how much market activity is being conducted by various bots, algorithms, and whatnot, all running outside their design parameters.

I agree GTM. If 80% of the market are bots and they have been built/redesigned in the last 10 years, it's entirely possible they haven't been designed for a bear market. The ultimate recency bias...

[Cyclical]

ASX not fooled, down 1.4%

The opposite of what happened yesterday, for both markets.

[Cyclical]

Sucker rally? Seems ridiculous when the effects on the economy haven't even started yet... unless this is the final sign that we absolutely have a 2 stream economy, one that is simply pumped by printing (QE infinity) and one that people actually live in, with a bit of leakage from one to the other through housing. If we have wall street get back into a bull market while normal businesses and economies are falling over on main street, it certainly will show a complete disconnect between the two. Would mean a companies ability to balance it's books and be profitable don't matter anymore, the only thing that matters is how much printed money they are getting. At that point the stock market becomes a game of who has the best lobbyists, who has the cosiest relationship with the Trump administration/Federal Reserve and who can threaten the government the most by claiming poverty.

Last report I read said at least 16% of American companies are zombie companies (which should be cleaned out in a recession). If that doesn't happen, there goes another hit to long term productivity.

Yep, markets, and therefore companies, aren't allowed to fail anymore. Especially when Trump is in charge on election year.

[bull....]

we hit the target around 2750 on sp500 i mentioned as top of my reaction rally point previously so lets see if we start next leg down soon.

When NZ govt going to let NZ people access there kiwisaver for emergency funds ? australia is doing it. Its a no brainer as gives people money to see them thru.

[BlackPeter]

we hit the target around 2750 on sp500 i mentioned as top of my reaction rally point previously so lets see if we start next leg down soon.

When NZ govt going to let NZ people access there kiwisaver for emergency funds ? australia is doing it. Its a no brainer as gives people money to see them thru.

Well, yes - it would be as well an amazing method to make the next down leg of the stock markets worse. Just imagine everybody now selling their portfolios for fear (or to access extra money). I can see why a trader would want that. More money in the end for the few.

[bull....]

Well, yes - it would be as well an amazing method to make the next down leg of the stock markets worse. Just imagine everybody now selling their portfolios for fear (or to access extra money). I can see why a trader would want that. More money in the end for the few.

BP only worried about his / her money . what about the people who need money now to live and pay there bills.

More than 360,000 Australians apply for early release of superannuation under coronavirus assistance scheme
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/australians-access-their-super-early-coronavirus-covid19/12125328

[cyclist]

I'm with BP on this one. An appalling way of transferring more wealth from unsophisticated investors to the rich. Targeted assistance is a much better idea.

[BlackPeter]

BP only worried about his / her money . what about the people who need money now to live and pay there bills.

More than 360,000 Australians apply for early release of superannuation under coronavirus assistance scheme
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/australians-access-their-super-early-coronavirus-covid19/12125328

Not worried about my money ... I do have a well diversified and well hedged portfolio - doesn't really make a significant difference to me whether the stock prices drop another 50% or rise from here.

I am however worried about the masses who might sell their assets when they are distressed and basically transferring their nest egg for a song to speculators and finance sharks.

[clip]

we hit the target around 2750 on sp500 i mentioned as top of my reaction rally point previously so lets see if we start next leg down soon.

Indeed will be interesting to see, looks like DOW/NASDAQ/S&P have made a higher low and higher high, I had a quick look back at 2008 charts and didn't see that happening I don't think, looking at weeklies? Then again we don't have much data to work with in the current environment so I suspect I am looking through rose-tinted glasses.

[winner69]

An updated version of that chart that often pulled out in these times

[dobby41]

BP only worried about his / her money . what about the people who need money now to live and pay there bills.

More than 360,000 Australians apply for early release of superannuation under coronavirus assistance scheme
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/australians-access-their-super-early-coronavirus-covid19/12125328

Up to $20k with $10k to start - doesn't sound too bad.
Early release of SOME superannuation.

[winner69]

Indeed will be interesting to see, looks like DOW/NASDAQ/S&P have made a higher low and higher high, I had a quick look back at 2008 charts and didn't see that happening I don't think, looking at weeklies? Then again we don't have much data to work with in the current environment so I suspect I am looking through rose-tinted glasses.

You should study this chart clip

[bull....]

You should study this chart clip

plenty of downside based on this chart + to meet the new reality

[winner69]

plenty of downside based on this chart + to meet the new reality

Secular markets are slow moving but eventually get to the ‘expected’ end point

[Playa]

The Dow has held up well the last couple of weeks,hasn't been hammered in a little while.Perhaps we have seen the bottom of this?

[Zaphod]

The Dow has held up well the last couple of weeks,hasn't been hammered in a little while.Perhaps we have seen the bottom of this?

I still think the events unfolding in the US, will have a profound long-term impact on the markets. Just because Trump say's 100-240K deaths means they've done a 'good job', doesn't translate to a well performing economy.

[BlackPeter]

The Dow has held up well the last couple of weeks,hasn't been hammered in a little while.Perhaps we have seen the bottom of this?

Market does not price in so far the long term impact of the virus and we haven't even seen the peak of the first wave of infections (and deaths) in the so called first world. Wait for the deaths to pile up to a handful of millions - and wait for the developing nations to catch up. Wait for the likely second and third wave of the virus going through, unless the Trumps and the Johnsons of the world change their game. Wait for months or a year or two with unprecedented unemployment numbers and business interruptions.

If that's over, it might make sense to look for the bottom.

My favorite analyst described the current situation as the "eye of the hurricane". In my view not yet the time to relax ...

[Joshuatree]

Good thoughts there ta BP. Having said that there are always over run opportunities to maybe take a starter holding in but im preserving most of my cash atm.

Im assuming this is he, if so thanks.It is a good read
April's Market Outlook: Is This the Eye of the Hurricane ...www.thestreet.com (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=2ahUKEwij-NK7t9foAhUOxzgGHaB6CzgQFjAAegQIBBAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Finvesting%2F aprils-market-outlook-is-this-the-eye-of-the-hurricane-14919161&usg=AOvVaw1ZoDRK3fX_jDIJlkfnzAut) › investing › aprils-market-outlook-is-this-the-eye...

[BlackPeter]

Good thoughts there ta BP. Having said that there are always over run opportunities to maybe take a starter holding in but im preserving most of my cash atm.

Im assuming this is he, if so thanks.It is a good read
April's Market Outlook: Is This the Eye of the Hurricane ...www.thestreet.com (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=2ahUKEwij-NK7t9foAhUOxzgGHaB6CzgQFjAAegQIBBAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Finvesting%2F aprils-market-outlook-is-this-the-eye-of-the-hurricane-14919161&usg=AOvVaw1ZoDRK3fX_jDIJlkfnzAut) › investing › aprils-market-outlook-is-this-the-eye...

Not quite, but this is a good read as well. I was referring to David Bassanese's weekly update:

https://www.betashares.com.au/insights/eye-of-the-storm/

He might not be that famous, but he is closer to home.

[Lewylewylewy]

From stats nz:

For the week ended 31 March 2020 compared with the equivalent week in 2019:

total imports from all countries were down 3.9 percent ($52 million), from $1.32 billion to $1.27 billion total exports to all countries were up 13.2 percent ($172 million), from $1.31 billion to $1.48 billion imports from China were down 27 percent ($64 million), from $236 million to $172 million exports to China were up 4.2 percent ($14 million), from $336 million to $350 million.

[trackers]

Love those charts, thanks for dusting them off winner

[Joshuatree]

"$300 trillion debt in the world ($US i presume) and $60 trillion needs rolling over each year." Somethings gotta give.

CNBC

[kiora]

"$300 trillion debt in the world ($US i presume) and $60 trillion needs rolling over each year." Somethings gotta give.

CNBC
Another hard drive to store the extra 000's?

[JBmurc]

"$300 trillion debt in the world ($US i presume) and $60 trillion needs rolling over each year." Somethings gotta give.

CNBC

Yes major issues around debt fuelled growth at all costs ...to think of all the wasted billions in share buybacks and HUGE payment to mgmt. of companies many time that should have gone bankrupted ... the sad fact is the general Tax payer is getting fleeced along with future generation for the benefit of the very few

11235

[Baa_Baa]

Where will all the trillions of $ released into global economies end up? Same places as before. Don’t confuse debt and despair with liquidity and finding a home for it. This is not the debt dot bomb, yet. V shape recovery or bear trap. You decide.

[Hoop]

The old worn out script of a horror movie goes like this.....
1..The world is great, people are healthy, wealthy and lots of smiley faces
2..Then suddenly... Apocalypse.
3..First wave..Devastation aftermath..Mankind survives, restrictions, disruptions hardship, system and social damage. ..
4..Second wave..The walking dead emerge and wreak new havoc within the devastated world
5..Mankind adapts and triumphs, bringing with it a brand new world

The spooky thing is that Covid is the catalyst and mankind has commenced writing this horror movie script..for real

I hear you say the second wave is science fiction...Actually it may not be..

At the moment the walking dead number about 12% of the population... I'm referring to Public list companies population
Covid aftermath... get use to hearing these two words folks... Zombie Companies

[kiora]

The old worn out script of a horror movie goes like this.....
1..The world is great, people are healthy, wealthy and lots of smiley faces
2..Then suddenly... Apocalypse.
3..First wave..Devastation aftermath..Mankind survives, restrictions, disruptions hardship, system and social damage. ..
4..Second wave..The walking dead emerge and wreak new havoc within the devastated world
5..Mankind adapts and triumphs, bringing with it a brand new world

The spooky thing is that Covid is the catalyst and mankind has commenced writing this horror movie script..for real

I hear you say the second wave is science fiction...Actually it may not be..

At the moment the walking dead number about 12% of the population... I'm referring to Public list companies population
Covid aftermath... get use to hearing these two words folks... Zombie Companies

Thanks Hoop.Interesting
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12072916

[Valuegrowth]

The S&P 500 is now up about 23 percent from its March 23 low. Asia markets are tracking Wall Street. Who is buying stocks now? It can’t be mum-and-dad investors.

[Bobdn]

I'm buying and am very much in the small time mum and dad investor class.

Howard Marks says it's ok if you're careful. I started buying 26 February (too early!) and have done so another 12 times since. Sooner or later I'll strike the bottom. I did buy on 23 March so at this stage I did buy at A bottom but I think there's more trouble to come of course. It would be nice if we could crash through those 23 March lows at least at this stage of my plans ;)

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/howard-marks-says-stock-bond-markets-bargain-prices-investors-coroanvirus-2020-4-1029075953