Black Monday

[Balance]

As usual you get personal as you can't counter an actual argument, China did it so it must be good or is the US involved must be bad! You should ask around here and find out about your credibility lol

Show me your PMs (of thanks and appreciations) and I will show you mine, fair enough?

Fact is, you & your type were so busy and consumed with spreading wild rumors and conspiracies that you all completely lost perspective on your total lack of humanity - you were actually undermining those who were gallantly putting their own lives at risk to contain the outbreak in Wuhan.

Meanwhile, there were people from Germany, Australia, Canada and Italy (school children in some cases) sending messages & videos of support and solidarity to the people of Wuhan while they most desperately needed it.

Shame on you and your type.

[bull....]

of course if banks only cut floating rates it wont help much as most NZ people are on fixed rates and most nz people then re fix there rates once they come off so to be of any benefit banks would need to drop fixed rates by 75bp to 2.5% for 1 yr. anyway if you lose your job its not going to help. might see an increase in forced property sales in the months ahead putting an end to the property uptick as well

[Balance]

of course if banks only cut floating rates it wont help much as most NZ people are on fixed rates and most nz people then re fix there rates once they come off so to be of any benefit banks would need to drop fixed rates by 75bp to 2.5% for 1 yr. anyway if you lose your job its not going to help. might see an increase in forced property sales in the months ahead putting an end to the property uptick as well

Not going to happen with property - special class in NZ.

What will happen is that panicked stricken investors will sell off their shares and there will be some (like me) who will regrettably help them with providing liquidity to sell off.

Sad but true.

[Raz]

of course if banks only cut floating rates it wont help much as most NZ people are on fixed rates and most nz people then re fix there rates once they come off so to be of any benefit banks would need to drop fixed rates by 75bp to 2.5% for 1 yr. anyway if you lose your job its not going to help. might see an increase in forced property sales in the months ahead putting an end to the property uptick as well

look at AIR employees as an example..these people will need help now...lets see what the government offers tomorrow..expect it will be employees focused only..zip for small businesses...love them to prove me wrong!

[bull....]

think anyone looking at the share market should consider the RBNZ wording

“Demand for New Zealand’s goods and services will be constrained, as will domestic production. Spending and investment will be subdued for an extended period while the responses to the COVID-19 virus evolve,” it said.

[Balance]

look at AIR employees as an example..these people will need help now...lets see what the government offers tomorrow..expect it will be employees focused only..zip for small businesses...love them to prove me wrong!

There will be help for small businesses.

Your prediction will be like you were with your spreading of wild rumors and conspiracies on the virus containment in China?

[Balance]

think anyone looking at the share market should consider the RBNZ wording

“Demand for New Zealand’s goods and services will be constrained, as will domestic production. Spending and investment will be subdued for an extended period while the responses to the COVID-19 virus evolve,” it said.

Precisely why the rate cut.

[bull....]

Precisely why the rate cut.

yes but people need to be aware dividends now on companies which may look even more attractive now will probably not be dividends you receive in time as the slow down evolves

[Balance]

Off to have my cup of coffee with my regular Monday catch-up group so have a lovely day everyone!

Get comfortable with your investment portfolio (sell down if you are losing sleep and experiencing nightmares) and buckle down for one of those super-bumpy rides of your investment life.

But think about this before you listen too much to the doomsday merchants out there :

- Rate cut will unquestionably cushion the economic hard landing and provide relief to those who need it most - borrowers. Those of us who have savings can weather the storm with less income and using some of our capital. Economics 101.

- Rate cut has already resulted in NZ$ dropping below US60c - great for our export sector at a time when China (our biggest and most important trading partner) demand for our products is increasing again. Don't believe me, go and talk to exporters - my meat export contact just exported 9 containers from Affco to China - meat which had been sitting in Affco's freezers since December.

There will be stimulus coming in over the months ahead - at a time when NZ is well placed to borrow heaps without impacting on our credit rating.

Not going to be all eye fillet & wine in the year ahead but it definitely will not be all bread and water either.

Stay well and stay safe!

[Hoop]

But think about this before you listen too much to the doomsday merchants out there :

- Rate cut will unquestionably cushion the economic hard landing and provide relief to those who need it most - borrowers. Those of us who have savings can weather the storm with less income and using some of our capital. Economics 101.

- Rate cut has already resulted in NZ$ dropping below US60c - great for our export sector at a time when China (our biggest and most important trading partner) demand for our products is increasing again. Don't believe me, go and talk to exporters - my meat export contact just exported 9 containers from Affco to China - meat which had been sitting in Affco's freezers since December. ....

Re rate cuts..Under Monetary Policy rate cuts is a way to manage money..these last 12 years the bias is to discourage saving and encourage spending..As NZ has a huge service industry and a thing about "must own property" these areas benefit hugely with rate cuts..Whether too much money is parked or not enough spending is causing the low inflation low growth is probably a chicken and egg thing.

Agree with what you say, but I must say that years of Media currency bashing citing Exports as a NZ economy example has made people think our primary exports are a big part of NZ economy..and lowering the NZ$ will help NZ economy overall.. I don't think that true anymore actually NZ$ drop may cause more harm overall because NZ currency is so big it is market driven,,see my other post on this subject (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11709-Potential-adverse-effects-from-coronavirus-on-NZ-economy/page131)I I'm a believer that NZ currency long term fluctuations reflect the differing degree of economic health..and I see any long term trend NZ$ reversion as a warning sign of the future...Both NZ and the Ozzie dollars have seem worrisome during the last year or two..

[bull....]

just as we thought the market would fall on the news of a rate cut , the game over rover , rate cuts are useless against a virus. add in the fake rally on US indexes as well

[Joshuatree]

Depth on NZX is thin atm.

[bull....]

Depth on NZX is thin atm.

one of the reasons i ditched all my stocks in nz while back. often complained to broker that there silly market rule on transparancy and lack of liquidity would make it near impossible to ditch a big holding in a rush

[Joshuatree]

NZX down 4.8% atm

[jonu]

NZX down 4.8% atm

Where did you get that? Direct broking showing down 1.4%

[bull....]

just to add insult to the rbnz the nz dollar is going hard up now

[stoploss]

just to add insult to the rbnz the nz dollar is going hard up now


Anything RBNZ can do the FED can do better..

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-slashes-key-interest-rates-to-0-and-announces-700-billion-qe-program-dollar-swap-to-address-coronavirus-panic-2020-03-15?mod=newsviewer_click

[bull....]

Anything RBNZ can do the FED can do better..

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-slashes-key-interest-rates-to-0-and-announces-700-billion-qe-program-dollar-swap-to-address-coronavirus-panic-2020-03-15?mod=newsviewer_click

your dead right , rbnz is fighting a losing game against bigger players. the fed fighting a losing game too how many QE's it going to take to right the ship ? looks like depression is the only way out of the rabbit hole

[JBmurc]

The Fed just cut interest rates to zero and official launched a massive QE program.... you Got any GOLD/SILVER yet ? or long term safe bonds with positive rates?

[Joshuatree]

Where did you get that? Direct broking showing down 1.4%
Apologies you're right, a friend on a live platform was quoting a stock by the looks.

[Lewylewylewy]

Lol i love that a poster named "Bull" is always a bear when others are bulls, and that when everyone is in recession mode, Bear, err, i mean Bull is talking about a depression. Hahahaha

Keep it up Bull, it's good to see a few different opinions.

[Joshuatree]

Im pleased Bull comments too, contrarians are essential and a depression is a possibility. Laughter atpit in time is for the nervous and ignorant imo.

[bull....]

endless cycle of QE's and money printing is just delaying the inevitable , A big reset is needed to put the capitalist system back how its meant to function. strong survive weak die.

[jonu]

Im pleased Bull comments too, contrarians are essential and a depression is a possibility. Laughter atpit in time is for the nervous and ignorant imo.

Less dangerous than spreading false info JT.

The sun will come up tomorrow and more people will continue to die in car accidents than be killed by Covid-19.

[Balance]

Doomsday merchants out on force.

What is their motivation?

[Joshuatree]

Less dangerous than spreading false info JT.

The sun will come up tomorrow and more people will continue to die in car accidents than be killed by Covid-19.

Spreading , yeah right Tui. Pint of blood your way.;)

[Southern_Belle]

the fear is real. Was in Riccarton CHCH post office this morning at 9.00am. Elderley couple in demanding to withdraw their money 'There is a recession coming & we don't want to lose our money' they were demanding. They were of the generation where the effects of the world wars and depression would be etched in their memory.

Anxiety & stress need to be avoided and priority is to look after one's health. Also Kiwibank is one of the safer banks, govt likely to guarantee bank deposits like they did in the GFC

[Balance]

the fear is real. Was in Riccarton CHCH post office this morning at 9.00am. Elderley couple in demanding to withdraw their money 'There is a recession coming & we don't want to lose our money' they were demanding. They were of the generation where the effects of the world wars and depression would be etched in their memory.

Anxiety & stress need to be avoided and priority is to look after one's health. Also Kiwibank is one of the safer banks, govt likely to guarantee bank deposits like they did in the GFC

Shows how irrational the fear is - and they will be taken to the cleaners by the doomsday merchants & con-artists waiting on the sidelines.

[bull....]

US futures in limit down halt

[bull....]

orr is jawboning the dollar down now saying QE in NZ will be as big as ever needed

[Blue Horseshoe]

Stock futures plummet — hit ‘limit down’ — even as Fed slashes rates; Dow futures off 1,000 points
Stock futures plummet — hit ‘limit down’ — even as Fed slashes rates; Dow futures off 1,000 points

[Southern_Belle]

Shows how irrational the fear is - and they will be taken to the cleaners by the doomsday merchants & con-artists waiting on the sidelines.Yes, plenty doomsday merchants on the sidelines for sure. No pockets in a shroud

[causecelebre]

endless cycle of QE's and money printing is just delaying the inevitable , A big reset is needed to put the capitalist system back how its meant to function. strong survive weak die.

Jubilee anyone?

[bull....]

Jubilee anyone?

not from me the thought of a virus infected depression is terrifying

[Aaron]

Shows how irrational the fear is - and they will be taken to the cleaners by the doomsday merchants & con-artists waiting on the sidelines.

Irrational? I am not sure its irrational. I suspect NZ debt to GDP is the highest ever. Responses to a crisis is lower interest rates (even negative in some countries), Cash under the mattress is better than paying the bank for the privilege providing you don't get robbed.The open bank resolution will lock-up and use a portion of depositors money to help banks get through a crisis and will pay you back whatever is left. The mindset of those in charge seems to preclude the possibility of calling in security from struggling borrowers in case house prices fall. For an older couple with no prospects of coming back from a crisis it would be frightening. I am unsure it is irrational as depositors have been consistently screwed by central banks since the GFC and there is no reason to think this won't continue or get worse.

Sorry not really related to this thread.

[bull....]

listening to powell on his conference call saying they just trying to smoothing the fall thats all

[causecelebre]

not from me the thought of a virus infected depression is terrifying

I know right? hardly bears thinking about If it gets to that stage

[Balance]

Irrational? I am not sure its irrational. I suspect NZ debt to GDP is the highest ever. Responses to a crisis is lower interest rates (even negative in some countries), Cash under the mattress is better than paying the bank for the privilege providing you don't get robbed.The open bank resolution will lock-up and use a portion of depositors money to help banks get through a crisis and will pay you back whatever is left. The mindset of those in charge seems to preclude the possibility of calling in security from struggling borrowers in case house prices fall. For an older couple with no prospects of coming back from a crisis it would be frightening. I am unsure it is irrational as depositors have been consistently screwed by central banks since the GFC and there is no reason to think this won't continue or get worse.

Sorry not really related to this thread.

Actually related to the thread so no need to apologize.

Taking money out of Kiwibank which is imo the safest bank in NZ and putting it in a mattress at home?

Understand the fear but not the rationale.

[Balance]

I know right? hardly bears thinking about If it gets to that stage

Will not happen.

Trillions of dollars will be printed as long as inflation is not a problem (and it will not be) so asset prices (including stocks) are going through the roof - watch and see.

[JBmurc]

Powell also announced that the Federal Reserve eliminated all reserve requirements for banks, which are now free to make as many loans as they want regardless of the level of Federally insured deposits they actual have. What could possibly go wrong?

[Balance]

Powell also announced that the Federal Reserve eliminated all reserve requirements for banks, which are now free to make as many loans as they want regardless of the level of Federally insured deposits they actual have. What could possibly go wrong?

Will be in my interest to spread doom in this and other forums but it is time for cool heads and fair-play.

The problem (made made imo) is huge and potentially could lead to depression which is why Central Banks around the world are taking a co-ordinated approach to soften the man made economic problem.

And history shows that they will succeed (1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2007 Global Financial Crisis).

Short term, fear will reign as we have a whole generation of investors (since 2010) who have not experienced a bear market and they are making all the classic mistakes that new investors make of selling everything, compounded by the fact that there have been totally irrational investment excesses out there (think Bitcoin) and many investors have used leverage (ouch!).

Long term, easy money by the trillions being pumped down into the global system can only mean one thing - yes, Central banks and governments are fearful too which is why they are pumping in the trillions - but asset vales can only rise when the dust settles.

[Balance]

BTW, I personally think we will see the Dow at 18,000 before things settle down.

So get comfortable and if you are having sleepless nights, you know that to do to get rid of the problem.

No - not sleeping pills!

[Aaron]

Powell also announced that the Federal Reserve eliminated all reserve requirements for banks, which are now free to make as many loans as they want regardless of the level of Federally insured deposits they actual have. What could possibly go wrong?

Banks have always been known for their responsible lending. I recall even in NZ in the last crisis South Canterbury Finance generously helping friends out. I think it only cost NZers $120.00 each (assuming pop. 5 mill)

Tempted to go with my gut and increase my holdings in Aussie gold producers. Not brave enough yet. Will let things fall further and hopefully get out of cash before a currency or banking crisis. I would be happy to wait but central banks make me so nervous.

[BlackPeter]

BTW, I personally think we will see the Dow at 18,000 before things settle down.

So get comfortable and if you are having sleepless nights, you know that to do to get rid of the problem.

No - not sleeping pills!

And better not "cash under the mattress" either ...

[Balance]

And better not "cash under the mattress" either ...

We are fortunate that the parents of the 4 trading banks in NZ and Kiwibank are considered to be amongst the most secure in the world.

Saw it first hand during the GFC in 2007/8 when banks fell over or had to be bailed out but by virtue of Oz & NZ governments guaranteeing depositors, the banking system in Australasia went through the crisis stronger and more secured.

[JBmurc]

We are fortunate that the parents of the 4 trading banks in NZ and Kiwibank are considered to be amongst the most secure in the world.

Saw it first hand during the GFC in 2007/8 when banks fell over or had to be bailed out but by virtue of Oz & NZ governments guaranteeing depositors, the banking system in Australasia went through the crisis stronger and more secured.

Well I hope so we really don't want to see a major fall in property prices(as this will lead to defaults) as to why we see the HUGE rate cuts

How many kiwis have AIRBNB properties ... watch rents drop next few weeks as thousands of AIRBNB properties look for cashflow to pay the fixed lending ...

[Tomtom]

Not sure about Kiwibank, they have experiences a collapse in lending margins and blowout in operating expenses over the last couple of years. I think the government would step in but they'll need to restructure soon.

The other four will be OK but substantially need to diversify out of lending portfolios.

[BlackPeter]

...

How many kiwis have AIRBNB properties ... watch rents drop next few weeks as thousands of AIRBNB properties look for cashflow to pay the fixed lending ...

I understand the long term rental market could well use a handful more units. They say there are no problems, only opportunities :); Maybe the virus resolves the housing crisis for our government ....

[JBmurc]

Banks have always been known for their responsible lending. I recall even in NZ in the last crisis South Canterbury Finance generously helping friends out. I think it only cost NZers $120.00 each (assuming pop. 5 mill)

Tempted to go with my gut and increase my holdings in Aussie gold producers. Not brave enough yet. Will let things fall further and hopefully get out of cash before a currency or banking crisis. I would be happy to wait but central banks make me so nervous.

Smart investors are buying AUD Gold producers .... just look at the average Gold sale price over this 1Q20 and the fact energy costs have plunged outlooks will be the best they ever have had ... AUD Silver is next and will spike ... just purchased some ETPMAG- Silver Bullion ETF priced in AUD currently you can buy which will follow AUD Silver spot price

[JBmurc]

I understand the long term rental market could well use a handful more units. They say there are no problems, only opportunities :); Maybe the virus resolves the housing crisis for our government ....

It certainly will in the resort towns >> but they may well find it hard to get renters

[bull....]

i see economists are starting to come around last week it was recession now it is deep recession

He said the Government's decision on Saturday to require all new arrivals to self-isolate for two weeks had cemented a "deep recession" in New Zealand

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120304533/border-closure-locks-in-recession-bnz-economists-say

maybe next mth depression

[Balance]

i see economists are starting to come around last week it was recession now it is deep recession

He said the Government's decision on Saturday to require all new arrivals to self-isolate for two weeks had cemented a "deep recession" in New Zealand

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120304533/border-closure-locks-in-recession-bnz-economists-say

maybe next mth depression

In the same breath, said economist wants RBNZ to waive increased capital requirement.

Who’s kidding who?

[mondograss]

In the same breath, said economist wants RBNZ to waive increased capital requirement.

Who’s kidding who?

Haven't they decided to defer the increase anyway?

[stoploss]

In the same breath, said economist wants RBNZ to waive increased capital requirement.

Who’s kidding who?

Bal you never replied to my question post 6507 .
You think he is doing a good job , but he has extended the timeframe on this implementation ...then said at the press conference the banks are basically already there now ...
This is the sort of a one in 200 year event he is trying to protect the banks from , but then goes and pushes it out ......

[Bjauck]

It certainly will in the resort towns >> but they may well find it hard to get renters The UK are reported to be preparing to coccoon the elderly, whilst letting the rest develop "herd immunity" . Not many others agree. However perhaps we could adapt part of their plan, and cocoon elderly and other high risk people in the unused accommodation in tourist towns, along with transferring some support personnel. Otherwise, retirement villages in towns and cities are ideally placed to become cocoons.

The UK have fewer NZ style retirement villages, so are at a disadvantage when it comes to providing safer havens for the elderly.

[bull....]

china stats dept has just released statement saying virus has impacted the chinese property market

[bull....]

Prime Minister says economic impact of Coronavirus could be greater than global financial crisis
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120319257/prime-minister-says-economic-impact-of-coronavirus-could-be-greater-than-global-financial-crisis

see they coming round now treasury admitting it be worse

[Jaa]

Prime Minister says economic impact of Coronavirus could be greater than global financial crisis
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120319257/prime-minister-says-economic-impact-of-coronavirus-could-be-greater-than-global-financial-crisis

see they coming round now treasury admitting it be worse

NZ will only wake up to the reality if it affects house prices...!

Guess immigration will be put on hold for a while? There goes some demand. Then there's all those AirBnBs that will be empty. Even with record low interest rates, how many will be forced to sell to keep the bankers happy? Or just rent them out to Kiwis? More supply, lower rents, lower returns, lower prices? Maybe, maybe not.

Maybe a good chance for NZ to really attack our homelessness and housing affordability. Labour could announce a big house building campaign tomorrow to create jobs and fulfill their election promise.

[Balance]

If he was ahead of the curve he would have cut at the last OCR meeting .... ( when many were picking a cut )
Now has been forced to get with the program with an emergency cut .
Also not so ahead of things now he is delaying the introduction of the new bank capital rules .
Not to mention he has said we are not prepared for negative rates ..... Why ?

Nobody expected Jacinda to blindly follow Trump's 180 degrees U-turn knee jerk reaction to ban entry into the country.

Dynamic situation so RBNZ has to respond and imo, has responded accordingly as the situation changed so drastically.

Brash or Bollard would have waited for data to confirm that NZ is in recession before cutting.

[bull....]

looking like a savage night coming up implied open 10% down at this stage , gold being liquidated , bitcoin etc , oil heading to new lows

[Crypto Crude]

Dow off 2250 on open flash crash...
:cool:
.^sc

[Oberon]

Now down 2700.... Kee-rist...

[Crypto Crude]

Holy corumba...
:cool:
.^sc

[bull....]

savage :scared: but still only down 30% against 300+ % up bull run

[dobby41]

Nobody expected Jacinda to blindly follow Trump's 180 degrees U-turn knee jerk reaction to ban entry into the country.

Dynamic situation so RBNZ has to respond and imo, has responded accordingly as the situation changed so drastically.

Brash or Bollard would have waited for data to confirm that NZ is in recession before cutting.

You appear unbalanced now.
Entry isn't banned but 14 days self isolation will certainly reduce the desire for people to come in.
Given all the cases we have so far have come into the country (no community spread yet) isolation seems very sensible indeed.
A rapidly changing situation requires a changing response. To suggest that Ardern is acting like Trump is very unbalanced.

[bull....]

another bad day in store for the overvalued NZX

[ynot]

savage :scared: but still only down 30% against 300+ % up bull run
Yes, we must keep this in perspective.

[waikare]

another bad day in store for the overvalued NZX

Perhaps some good buying for those who may want to take a punt, at the moment I am sitting on the sideline waiting for NZX to level out.

[bull....]

Dow drops nearly 3,000 points, as coronavirus collapse continues; worst day since ’87https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/traders-await-futures-open-after-fed-cuts-rates-launches-easing-program.html

[bull....]

The NZX 'circuit breakers' to keep stock market orderly
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12317240

must be worried about a crash

[jonu]

The NZX 'circuit breakers' to keep stock market orderly
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12317240

must be worried about a crash

The Oz regulator's message to large market participants was the most interesting thing in that article.

[Balance]

Perhaps some good buying for those who may want to take a punt, at the moment I am sitting on the sideline waiting for NZX to level out.

Well, I am in with a few low cheeky bids - fully expect the selected stocks to do well when fiscal stimulus package is announced this afternoon.

Come and hit me, lemmings! :scared:

[Balance]

Well, I am in with a few low cheeky bids - fully expect the selected stocks to do well when fiscal stimulus package is announced this afternoon.

Come and hit me, lemmings! :scared:

Freaking heck - 4.3% down.

Where are the lemmings!


The NZX 'circuit breakers' to keep stock market orderly
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12317240

must be worried about a crash

Come on, Bull.... - try harder to get the lemmings to jump over the cliff. What are you using - a dog whistle? Use a bull-horn! :D

I am providing liquidity & waiting! :eek2:

[bull....]

Freaking heck - 4.3% down.

Where are the lemmings!



Come on, Bull.... - try harder to get the lemmings to jump over the cliff. What are you using - a dog whistle? Use a bull-horn! :D

I am providing liquidity & waiting! :eek2:

balance i would have thought you more sensible than to try and catch a falling knife

[Tomtom]

I expect that there will be a series of stimulus packages as the severity dawns on people.

[Balance]

balance i would have thought you more sensible than to try and catch a falling knife

No falling knife here with some selected stocks - just lemmings running towards the cliff.

Did the same with GFC & 9/11 - you gotto to do what you gotto to do when the lemmings are running.

But only after a very painful lesson in 1997 during AFC.

[skid]

Gold getting crushed shows there is no such thing as a safe haven in times so uncertain as this......but if I was going to shop...thats where Id be looking to buy..(the real thing ,not producers)..after the GFC it went on quite a Bull run

[King1212]

Big fundies should top up today!

[skid]

Big fundies should top up today!

Its apparently a weird situation as there are no(or very little)physical supplies to be had......the law of demand seems to have been turned on its head.............but I suppose buying on paper with a big firm like kitco is as safe as shares

[bull....]

No falling knife here with some selected stocks - just lemmings running towards the cliff.

Did the same with GFC & 9/11 - you gotto to do what you gotto to do when the lemmings are running.

But only after a very painful lesson in 1997 during AFC.

plenty of downside to go , this is not a GFC its a GFC+

[Balance]

plenty of downside to go , this is not a GFC its a GFC+

Good one. Louder!

Keep up the good work.

Lemmings need a hurry up - getting near the cliff face.

[Balance]

Good one. Louder!

Keep up the good work.

Lemmings need a hurry up - getting near the cliff face.

ASX opens up & she's away.

Disappointed with bull.... - need you to bring out the bull horn and scare the lemmings over the cliff.

Am here and providing much needed liquidity so come on! :eek2:

[causecelebre]

plenty of downside to go , this is not a GFC its a GFC+

As stated by G Robertson's interview this morning

[Balance]

As stated by G Robertson's interview this morning

Market is recovering.

More bad news please!

[oldtech]

Market is recovering.

More bad news please!

Be careful what you wish for ...

[Balance]

Be careful what you wish for ...

This is like having an ice cold beer on a hot tropical sandy beach, watching the other tourists wearing ice jackets and drinking boiling hot tea.

Watching bull .... running around them with a blow-torch & releasing a sackful of biting mosquitoes & sand flies in their direction.

[peat]

11127
nice to make 7% in a couple of hours.

(yes the holding is down overall but its still a bonus to be able to mitigate that )

[bull....]

As stated by G Robertson's interview this morning

robinson planning for the worst , should have had option 4 the Alpocalypse senario when nz gets infected

[Balance]

robinson planning for the worst , should have had option 4 the Alpocalypse senario when nz gets infected

More details please.

The lemmings are not responding to your dog whistle

[Balance]

Seen it all before.

Same routine - just bigger numbers.

[Joshuatree]

Do you mean Alpaca Lisp Bull?

[bull....]

More details please.

The lemmings are not responding to your dog whistle

get back to you just getting the popcorn ready for 2pm

[Balance]

Well, I am in with a few low cheeky bids - fully expect the selected stocks to do well when fiscal stimulus package is announced this afternoon.

Come and hit me, lemmings! :scared:

Market responding positively to the stimulus package.

As expected.

[bull....]

Market responding positively to the stimulus package.

As expected.

fleeting , back to reality soon its not going to stop nz going into deep recession or more

[youngatheart]

?!? The virus situation is not of their making so what would you have done?

[bull....]

?!? The virus situation is not of their making so what would you have done?

spend more on health system for starters , if your workforce is sick handouts are not going to help . the wage subsidy is only temporary so wont make much difference in time

[bull....]

bear is settling in , price behaviour suggests. people are now accepting global recession is inevitable worldwide.

biggest early businesses to be disrupted if virus disrupts for longer time are

office buildings leases will slump as businesses new model will be workers working from home. any property stock with high office concentration will be affected the most also mall type property stocks.
movies theatres will die as on demand streaming becomes the norm even of new movies
retail stores with mainly brick an mortar operations as delivery to home becomes the norm
many more to come as disruption speeds up and robotics adoption accelerates due to supply chain and virus issues.

NZ stimulus wont help NZ much if virus spreads here and disrupts longer than thought. business support is for minimal time and once runs out the people supported will be laid off and small business will close.
The election bribes for beneficiaries and super beneficiaries mixed in as stimulus wont help the longer the virus lasts as prices rise due to shortages in products and services.
As virus spreads mass sick people will be unable to work , businesses will be unable to provide services and product shortages will become more acute due to cargo issues importing them and countries using supplies for themselves first before exports.

The stimulus provided very small amount of money for virus testing so true numbers of infected in NZ will never be known fully and the acute lack of medical supplies and equipment due to underfunded health system for years ( cant even buy a mask at the moment) will mean the virus spread here will be bad.
NZ is assured of spread due to the failure of early testing and lax border controls from the start and lack of urgency from leaders which will result in a deep lasting recession with the small business sector suffering the most , unemployment will surge. there is no plan in place for eventual recovery at this stage which is not promising.

[Cadalac123]

bear is settling in , price behaviour suggests. people are now accepting global recession is inevitable worldwide.

biggest early businesses to be disrupted if virus disrupts for longer time are

office buildings leases will slump as businesses new model will be workers working from home. any property stock with high office concentration will be affected the most also mall type property stocks.
movies theatres will die as on demand streaming becomes the norm even of new movies
retail stores with mainly brick an mortar operations as delivery to home becomes the norm
many more to come as disruption speeds up and robotics adoption accelerates due to supply chain and virus issues.

NZ stimulus wont help NZ much if virus spreads here and disrupts longer than thought. business support is for minimal time and once runs out the people supported will be laid off and small business will close.
The election bribes for beneficiaries and super beneficiaries mixed in as stimulus wont help the longer the virus lasts as prices rise due to shortages in products and services.
As virus spreads mass sick people will be unable to work , businesses will be unable to provide services and product shortages will become more acute due to cargo issues importing them and countries using supplies for themselves first before exports.

The stimulus provided very small amount of money for virus testing so true numbers of infected in NZ will never be known fully and the acute lack of medical supplies and equipment due to underfunded health system for years ( cant even buy a mask at the moment) will mean the virus spread here will be bad.
NZ is assured of spread due to the failure of early testing and lax border controls from the start and lack of urgency from leaders which will result in a deep lasting recession with the small business sector suffering the most , unemployment will surge. there is no plan in place for eventual recovery at this stage which is not promising.

Are you intentionally trying to freak people out ? This post is extremely overboard and borderline trolling

[Bjauck]

Are you intentionally trying to freak people out ? This post is extremely overboard and borderline trolling it is a scenario. We need to model for various possible courses the response to the epidemic could take. Can you rule it out? I hope it will not eventuate. I never imagined that the Wuhan outbreak would spread so rapidly. That Italy would go into lockdown with Spain and France not far behind.

There is encouraging news on vaccine development.

[Balance]

Are you intentionally trying to freak people out ? This post is extremely overboard and borderline trolling

Chill.

Everyone is entitled to his/her opinion but you also must be aware and mindful of the motivation behind the opinion.

I have no problem with worse case scenarios, dealt with them all the time when I was deciding on extending credit to companies - why, what if, how would and could. Makes for good decision making when making loans or investment decisions.

What I have a problem with are the rats who seem to fester a plenty to prey on the inexperienced, naive and easily spooked in times like these.

You need to decide who is what - and act accordingly.

[dobby41]

it is a scenario. We need to model for various possible courses the response to the epidemic could take. Can you rule it out? I hope it will not eventuate. I never imagined that the Wuhan outbreak would spread so rapidly. That Italy would go into lockdown with Spain and France not far behind.

There is encouraging news on vaccine development.

It is an overly pessimistic view really. Long on words and short on facts to back them up.

[Cadalac123]

I don’t think so balance . I think posts like that are what make uninformed people start panic buying and thinking they’re going to end up on ventilators and die when the world will keep going on and they’ll lose out on time

[Balance]

I don’t think so balance . I think posts like that are what make uninformed people start panic buying and thinking they’re going to end up on ventilators and die when the world will keep going on and they’ll lose out on time

Which part of

'What I have a problem with are the rats who seem to fester a plenty to prey on the inexperienced, naive and easily spooked in times like these.

You need to decide who is what - and act accordingly'

do you not get?

[bull....]

Are you intentionally trying to freak people out ? This post is extremely overboard and borderline trolling

take it how you want that is your right.

[Balance]

take it how you want that is your right.

Expecting a greater effort from you today, bull ....

Your efforts yesterday were pathetically ineffective.

The lemmings are actually turning away from the cliff!

You can do better.

[jonu]

Expecting a greater effort from you today, bull ....

Your efforts yesterday were pathetically ineffective.

The lemmings are actually turning away from the cliff!

You can do better.

I can't decide whether Bull.... is a person who needs to take a break from their newsfeed or a cashed up individual who is eager to drive the market as low as possible. Could be both

[bull....]

lots of trading updates today from NZX companies , as expected they are not good. we should expect the majority of companies to report worse conditions mid year

[King1212]

lots of trading updates today from NZX companies , as expected they are not good. we should expect the majority of companies to report worse conditions mid year

especially with US..kept pumping money to the market....then everything will be kaboom!!!

[blackcap]

Dow futures down 400 now, so from a 3000 pt drop, a 1000 pt gain.. not much left over. Today's action will be interesting.

[youngatheart]

??? It just finished up 1,000pts, up 5.2% so what are you on about?

[youngatheart]

Futures show only - 24pts, 0.11%...

[Raz]

I can't decide whether Bull.... is a person who needs to take a break from their newsfeed or a cashed up individual who is eager to drive the market as low as possible. Could be both

Perhaps they just have a different point of view, simple

[blackcap]

??? It just finished up 1,000pts, up 5.2% so what are you on about?

Yes it finished up 1,000 points. But it is now down 400 on the futures. 407.9 to be exact.

[Toddy]

There are some brave investors out there piling cash into the NZX. I wish them the very best of luck.

[Jonboyz]

Ahh...a sea of green.

[King1212]

good time to unload for those that looking to have a good night sleep....

So much volatility ......i rather a good night sleep rather than keep thinking about my capital....

[Toddy]

This reminds me of when the money was piling on the All Blacks to win the rugby world cup.

[bull....]

This reminds me of when the money was piling on the All Blacks to win the rugby world cup.

all the liquidity is drying up all over the world thats why we getting these rediculous swings in every asset class , central bankers furiously pumping money into the system to keep the wheels turning. stress everywhere.

[jonu]

all the liquidity is drying up all over the world thats why we getting these rediculous swings in every asset class , central bankers furiously pumping money into the system to keep the wheels turning. stress everywhere.

You certainly sound stressed bull...
A lot of money is being made by some out of this volatility.

[Blue Horseshoe]

all the liquidity is drying up all over the world thats why we getting these rediculous swings in every asset class , central bankers furiously pumping money into the system to keep the wheels turning. stress everywhere.

And that's the good news.

[bull....]

You certainly sound stressed bull...
A lot of money is being made by some out of this volatility.

im a trader so i like volatility but not wide spreads

[Balance]

im a trader so i like volatility but not wide spreads

Try harder today, bull ....

The lemmings are now charging back up the hill!

[bull....]

Try harder today, bull ....

The lemmings are now charging back up the hill!

lol and charging down again soon. the bear will wear us all down over time

[Balance]

lol and charging down again soon. the bear will wear us all down over time

Try harder!

[bull....]

Try harder!

your buys not been hit yet

[Balance]

your buys not been hit yet

Most disappointing - let's hope tomorrow will bring a bad day so your bull horn warnings and doomsaying will work better.

[blackcap]

Most disappointing - let's hope tomorrow will bring a bad day so your bull horn warnings and doomsaying will work better.

Dow futures down 651 now and the ASX called down by 150.

[bull....]

Most disappointing - let's hope tomorrow will bring a bad day so your bull horn warnings and doomsaying will work better.

so you can buy again?

[Balance]

so you can buy again?

Nope - just did not reach my level.

[bull....]

Nope - just did not reach my level.

whats your level?

[blackcap]

Dow futures down 800 now and falling fast. and now back up to down 650.

IG.com

[youngatheart]

Post the link that you use to check...

[blackcap]

Mnuchin just said that unemployment could hit 20%. Ho Lee Fuq

[Balance]

Mnuchin just said that unemployment could hit 20%. Ho Lee Fuq

And you believe him?

[blackcap]

And you believe him?

Not really and he did not quantify for how long the 20% would be there but just trying to help you out here Balance. I thought you wanted a bit more downwards pressure :)

[bull....]

S&P couple hours ago released this saying what i said earlier today

Asia Pacific recession guaranteed" published on Wednesday, the ratings agency said the first-quarter shock in China, shutdowns in the US and Europe and local virus transmission will trigger a deep recession across the region

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/03/18/sp-global-ratings-says-asiapac-recession-imminent

[BlackPeter]

S&P couple hours ago released this saying what i said earlier today

Asia Pacific recession guaranteed" published on Wednesday, the ratings agency said the first-quarter shock in China, shutdowns in the US and Europe and local virus transmission will trigger a deep recession across the region

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/03/18/sp-global-ratings-says-asiapac-recession-imminent

Wow - and we need a Legend to convey this wisdom ...

Obviously - if it is in the Star it must be true :p, but lets face it, to predict in the current situation a recession (being two subsequent quarters of negative growth) you need to be neither rocket scientist nor senior economist nor "Legend". This is a prediction even the Star might get right, but honestly - most 5th graders would be able to "predict" that as well :p;

Do you have any news for us as well?

[King1212]

ASX 200 below 5000....panic!!!!

[bull....]

Wow - and we need a Legend to convey this wisdom ...

Obviously - if it is in the Star it must be true :p, but lets face it, to predict in the current situation a recession (being two subsequent quarters of negative growth) you need to be neither rocket scientist nor senior economist nor "Legend". This is a prediction even the Star might get right, but honestly - most 5th graders would be able to "predict" that as well :p;

Do you have any news for us as well?

it be longer than 2 quarters , plenty time for overvalued NZX to come down

[BlackPeter]

it be longer than 2 quarters

which may or may not be true ... :):

[bull....]

which may or may not be true ... :):

i see ANZ is offering the lowest mortgage available by a big 4 today but they kept a 30 day term deposit at current rates while the rest fell. appealing 30 day while you wait?

[skid]

When the politicians in charge of finance say there will be a recession....You had better prepare yourself for a recession..(thats not the kind of thing that makes politicians look good)....doesnt mean every day is going to be a massive fall...It means volitility ..some days will have big rises,but the general current is going basically in one direction. a lower sharemarket in general is on the cards..................Time to get out of the habit of thinking in terms of one company in terms of real value...,what is real value? Takes a little time to start thinking in terms of the slow economy..real value....as opposed to the ''long term Bull run''..real value...............It will be interesting to see how many correlations there are with the last GFC...(Gold really climbed and silver went ballistic) oil dropped to $30 barrel at one stage....and of course all the money printing..

[Balance]

When the politicians in charge of finance say there will be a recession....You had better prepare yourself for a recession..(thats not the kind of thing that makes politicians look good)....doesnt mean every day is going to be a massive fall...It means volitility ..some days will have big rises,but the general current is going basically in one direction. a lower sharemarket in general is on the cards..................Time to get out of the habit of thinking in terms of one company in terms of real value...,what is real value? Takes a little time to start thinking in terms of the slow economy..real value....as opposed to the ''long term Bull run''..real value...............It will be interesting to see how many correlations there are with the last GFC...(Gold really climbed and silver went ballistic) oil dropped to $30 barrel at one stage....and of course all the money printing..

Why would you expect the politicians to say anything else under the circumstances?

They know that there is going to be a recession but already, they are also saying that it could be a lot worse but for their great initiatives!

Backside covering in the extreme.

The one taking the grand prize for backside covering of course is Trump - he his busy blaming everyone else already! :D

[bull....]

misses just back from supermarket saying shelves empty of rice . oats . flour , mixed veges etc etc limits on stuff packed as. people stocking up for sure now compared to couple weeks back

[Entrep]

Uber Eats will be making a killing

[Lola]

Why would you expect the politicians to say anything else under the circumstances?

They know that there is going to be a recession but already, they are also saying that it could be a lot worse but for their great initiatives!

Backside covering in the extreme.

The one taking the grand prize for backside covering of course is Trump - he his busy blaming everyone else already! :D
those
Go easy on him. Hes the President. How unkind of people saying he is very rude calling this virus the China Virus. It is. After all we had the Spanish Flu and no one complained. So PC.

On another matter I wish Winston would do his job properly and go away and visit his branches as Foreign Affairs Minister. Especially the one he opened in Sweden or is it Norway for reasons we arent meant to know about.

[bull....]

Just got back from the supermarket as well.

No rice, no pasta, no bread, no fresh meat, only a few cans of food left.

Lots of toilet paper though.

yea i forgot the bread was all gone too never seen it like this

[t.rexjr]

Just got back from the supermarket as well.

No rice, no pasta, no bread, no fresh meat, only a few cans of food left.

Lots of toilet paper though.

I'm wondering if its also a case of not fully stocking shelves as many customers buying online...

[Poet]

those
Go easy on him. Hes the President. How unkind of people saying he is very rude calling this virus the China Virus. It is. After all we had the Spanish Flu and no one complained. So PC.

On another matter I wish Winston would do his job properly and go away and visit his branches as Foreign Affairs Minister. Especially the one he opened in Sweden or is it Norway for reasons we arent meant to know about.

The Spanish flu actually started in Pennsylvania (or Kansas perhaps) - but even then (in war time) the news of casualties etc was suppressed and spun. Spain was neutral at the time so published their casualty figures and so the disease ended up wearing the moniker of spanish flu

[skid]

Why would you expect the politicians to say anything else under the circumstances?

They know that there is going to be a recession but already, they are also saying that it could be a lot worse but for their great initiatives!

Backside covering in the extreme.

The one taking the grand prize for backside covering of course is Trump - he his busy blaming everyone else already! :D

Trumps backside covering is just the opposite of a politician here warning about recession

[skid]

those
Go easy on him. Hes the President. How unkind of people saying he is very rude calling this virus the China Virus. It is. After all we had the Spanish Flu and no one complained. So PC.

On another matter I wish Winston would do his job properly and go away and visit his branches as Foreign Affairs Minister. Especially the one he opened in Sweden or is it Norway for reasons we arent meant to know about.


Is that satire....about the US president?....no one politicises like Trump................He just made a statement we shouldnt politicise this situation ..and then immediately turned and started ramping about Democrats....and then ,unlike anyone else ...decided it was the ''China Virus''...............(surly your having us on?)

[Joshuatree]

DOW futures Limit down
despite Trump throwing money around ,$1.2 trillion.On top of the $300 billion.
Unemployment projected @ 20%
Covid 19 in all 50 USA states

[bull....]

US markets down again today s&p500 rally yesterday tested the break of the trendline from 2009 and today has bounced down from it normally bearish price action and confirming the bull market has finished. next test will be 2311 2018 flash low , dow is already lower than its flash low so dont see sp500 holding that area.

[bull....]

its emerging that young people are now dying from the corona virus

Think only old people can die from coronavirus? Think again. Expert who led team assessing China's outbreak says NO ONE is safe from the killer virus
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8124901/Young-people-dying-coronavirus-despite-elderly-people-worst-affected.html

Wouldnt surprise me govt surpressing the true reality of the virus.

anyway markets in a halt limit down again

[ratkin]

its emerging that young people are now dying from the corona virus

Think only old people can die from coronavirus? Think again. Expert who led team assessing China's outbreak says NO ONE is safe from the killer virus


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8124901/Young-people-dying-coronavirus-despite-elderly-people-worst-affected.html

Wouldnt surprise me govt surpressing the true reality of the virus.

anyway markets in a halt limit down again

Been a few lies so far

Masks don't work
People with no symptoms are no risk

Who know what else is being kept from us. We said right at the start that the response from China was so drastic that it had to be something very bad and it is.

[bull....]

Been a few lies so far

Masks don't work
People with no symptoms are no risk

Who know what else is being kept from us. We said right at the start that the response from China was so drastic that it had to be something very bad and it is.

exactly countries dont go into lockdown over a mild flu. reports coming in off heaps of young people dying in italy

[blackcap]

exactly countries dont go into lockdown over a mild flu. reports coming in off heaps of young people dying in italy

Yet the petrie dish that was the Diamond Princess shows some interesting stats:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

"And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why?

Next, slightly less than half the passengers (48.6% ± 2.0%) who got the disease showed NO symptoms. If this disease is so dangerous, how come half the people who got it showed no symptoms at all? Here’s the breakdown by age:"

[couta1]

Yet the petrie dish that was the Diamond Princess shows some interesting stats:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

"And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why?

Next, slightly less than half the passengers (48.6% ± 2.0%) who got the disease showed NO symptoms. If this disease is so dangerous, how come half the people who got it showed no symptoms at all? Here’s the breakdown by age:" Exactly, this pussycat virus is a media hype machine and a smokescreen for the real underlying fiscal problems of the world.

[trackers]

DOW down another 2.2k today... 10%... another circuit breaker hit. Crazy

[Jerry]

A very good link here on why one has to react fast to the virus.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[ynot]

I'm tending to agree to agree with you couta1.

[ynot]

I'm tending to agree to agree with you couta1. This flue is a smoke screen. Historically "the flue" has always been harsh on the elderly and those amoung us with other underlying health conditions. A circuit breaker indeed. The market was a straw house waiting for a reason fall. Typical Black swan. History repeating.

"Of the 2503 deaths in Italy to date, only 12 of those fatalities had no previous health concerns. ( So far)"

[bull....]

massive risk to NZ exporters if virus becomes to entrenched here

Chinese Port Restricts Ships From Virus-Hit Nations for 14 Days

The port of Fuzhou in eastern China is restricting vessels arriving from nine countries including the U.S. and Singapore in efforts to limit the spread of coronavirus by visiting ships and their crew


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/chinese-port-restricts-ships-from-virus-hit-nations-for-14-days

[arc]

Couta1, Personally I think you have a partially valid point, perhaps not a smokescreen as such but definitely a parallel issue along with other issues we have with the world economy. As you are all aware, historic data shows the world economy started slowing down around March 2018, it has been limping along since then and we all knew the Bull couldnt last hence the now historic comments regarding "future doom and gloom scenarios". I know I personally made a few comments in that direction around 2018-2019 as I reflected on the obvious chart data emerging/confirming the trends.

I think that when China started to employ its troops to spray disinfectant onto footpaths, shop windows/walls, doorways, public buses, trains etc and to expose public transport vehicles to strong UV light as they were parked overnight is saying something significant about what sort of bug they/we are dealing with. The fact that other nations are starting/following the same actions is statistically significant. This virus can persist for a few hours in the open air and survive for up to 3 days on a hard surface.

[dobby41]

A very good link here on why one has to react fast to the virus.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Excellent article - thanks.
A big read but worth it to understand.

[winner69]

Haunting photograph

Might happen here


In Ohio, more than 48,000 people applied for jobless benefits during the first two days of this week. The tally during the same period the prior week: just 1,825.

[Joshuatree]

A very good link here on why one has to react fast to the virus.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

thanks Jerry

[jonu]

Yet the petrie dish that was the Diamond Princess shows some interesting stats:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/16/diamond-princess-mysteries/

"And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why?

Next, slightly less than half the passengers (48.6% ± 2.0%) who got the disease showed NO symptoms. If this disease is so dangerous, how come half the people who got it showed no symptoms at all? Here’s the breakdown by age:"

Because for some strange reason bull... and ratkin are relishing in spreading mayhem. Not two posters I hold highly in the credibility stakes.

[bull....]

Because for some strange reason bull... and ratkin are relishing in spreading mayhem. Not two posters I hold highly in the credibility stakes.

lol ratkin and I and some others were the ones who took the virus seriously at the start of its first discovery while people like you seem to be in denial. we all know now who was right.

[couta1]

lol ratkin and I and some others were the ones who took the virus seriously at the start of its first discovery while people like you seem to be in denial. we all know now who was right. Since the pussycat virus started about 8911 people have died, over the same period 106000 approx have died from common flu strains, overhyped media driven frenzy.

[jonu]

lol ratkin and I and some others were the ones who took the virus seriously at the start of its first discovery while people like you seem to be in denial. we all know now who was right.

I still consider the world wide situation a massive overeaction. It is not a particularly nasty disease. Many people who die from it would probably have died from flu. The news has got ahead of the virus and politicised it. The UK's backtrack a prime example.

[BlackPeter]

Go easy on him. Hes the President. How unkind of people saying he is very rude calling this virus the China Virus. It is. After all we had the Spanish Flu and no one complained. So PC.

..

He is a crook and a dumb liar. No need to go easy on him. However re the so called Spanish flu ... actually - the Spanish did complain about the name, and rightly so. The "Spanish" flu was bread in the trenches of world war one and spread among allied soldiers as well as German soldiers long before the flu popped up in Spain. The reason it is called Spanish flu is because Spain was in that time the only larger country in Europe with uncensored media, who discovered and reported about this flu. The war parties decided to ignore it to avoid spooking their populations.

[bull....]

I still consider the world wide situation a massive overeaction. It is not a particularly nasty disease. Many people who die from it would probably have died from flu. The news has got ahead of the virus and politicised it. The UK's backtrack a prime example.

why then close down borders and lock down countries , make businesses close down. it just doesnt make sense if its just flu like

[dobby41]

removed - ended up with a double-up

[dobby41]

Since the pussycat virus started about 8911 people have died, over the same period 106000 approx have died from common flu strains, overhyped media driven frenzy.

Given that the mortality rate for Covid-19 is at least an order of magnitude higher than the flu (and probably 2 orders) if Covid-19 spread like the common flu does the death toll will be huge.
Then there would be a media frenzy.

More caution with Covid-19 than the common flu is entirely justified.
Even Trump has changed his tune from it being nothing more than the flu.

[jonu]

why then close down borders and lock down countries , make businesses close down. it just doesnt make sense if its just flu like

Large number of people contracting it don't even show symptoms. Vast majority of people contracting it don't need hospitalisation. Even bigger majority make full recovery. Massive, politicised, hysteria fuelled, over reaction.

[jonu]

Given that the mortality rate for Covid-19 is at least an order of magnitude higher than the flu (and probably 2 orders) if Covid-19 spread like the common flu does the death toll will be huge.
Then there would be a media frenzy.

More caution with Covid-19 than the common flu is entirely justified.
Even Trump has changed his tune from it being nothing more than the flu.

The mortality rate is extremely over estimated. They have no idea what the actual number of people contracting it is with tens of thousands undiagnosed. Therefore the mortality rate will appear way higher than it really is.

[mfd]

Large number of people contracting it don't even show symptoms. Vast majority of people contracting it don't need hospitalisation. Even bigger majority make full recovery. Massive, politicised, hysteria fuelled, over reaction.

You may be right. What we know is, despite that, if an outbreak takes hold in an area the hospitals are quickly overwhelmed with victims and many of them die once they swamp the treatment capacity. We are arguing over whether this devastation happens with 1% infected or, at a high bound, 10%. Either way, we haven't seen how bad things would get if the spread is not controlled in some way.

[skid]

Haunting photograph

Might happen here


In Ohio, more than 48,000 people applied for jobless benefits during the first two days of this week. The tally during the same period the prior week: just 1,825.

Are you seeing the irony? big long ques in close contact

[dobby41]

The mortality rate is extremely over estimated. They have no idea what the actual number of people contracting it is with tens of thousands undiagnosed. Therefore the mortality rate will appear way higher than it really is.

Read this if you haven't already
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[dobby41]

Are you seeing the irony? big long ques in close contact

That queue didn't look big or close - keeping 1m separation.

[skid]

Dang....forgot where the delete button is

[skid]

I still consider the world wide situation a massive overeaction. It is not a particularly nasty disease. Many people who die from it would probably have died from flu. The news has got ahead of the virus and politicised it. The UK's backtrack a prime example.

Actually it often leeds to a viral form of Pneumonia...Im not sure if you have had any experience with that disease but its not to be dismissed.
Young healthy people will still recouperate from pneumonia ,but it takes time ....Its not like the Flu....and old people?....Well..its often the cause of death for the weak

[BlackPeter]

A very good link here on why one has to react fast to the virus.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Excellent article, thanks.

[lissica]

The mortality rate is extremely over estimated. They have no idea what the actual number of people contracting it is with tens of thousands undiagnosed. Therefore the mortality rate will appear way higher than it really is.

Sorry to be pedantic, most people are referring to fatality rate rather than mortality rate.

ie- the proportion of deaths of people who have the disease over a certain period of time.

But yes, it is likely overestimated, and we are making tough decisions with limited information. This is a nice article by John Ioannidis:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

That's not to say we shouldn't:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/

[skid]

We could of course ...just carry on....letting business run.....and just let it move through the population and take the collateral damage on, until we reached herd immunity.....but I dont think that would be a pretty sight in an humanitarian sense.....but Im getting on...so maybe Im bias?
Maybe this business world we have created for man....is more important than the man it was created for?

[jonu]

We could of course ...just carry on....letting business run.....and just let it move through the population and take the collateral damage on, until we reached herd immunity.....but I dont think that would be a pretty sight in an humanitarian sense.....but Im getting on...so maybe Im bias?
Maybe this business world we have created for man....is more important than the man it was created for?

As with most things it is about getting the balance right. We can't maintain a healthy population without trade.

[t.rexjr]

lol ratkin and I and some others were the ones who took the virus seriously at the start of its first discovery while people like you seem to be in denial. we all know now who was right.

Come now Bull. You're M.O. is to frenzy off the blood of others. You proclaim merit, but you'd take Jacinda passing wind seriously if you thought you could somehow benefit..

[jonu]

Come now Bull. You're M.O. is to frenzy off the blood of others. You proclaim merit, but you'd take Jacinda passing wind seriously if you thought you could somehow benefit..

Haha. He has a lot to take seriously then!

[skid]

are we starting to see a pattern in USA?.....Virus....Stock market calamity.....Government tries to fix.....stock market likes it....for a day.....further stock market calamity(because ...dang..the problem is still there.)...government throws more lollies....stock market likes it...for a day..

[Joshuatree]

Americans are finally uniting in the realisation that their leader is incompetent and cant be trusted to fix the problem. He has fiddled while his country starts to burn. with the virus in every state.

[skid]

Yeah...there was a little ''hypothetical''in my comment:).....must have been those pics of airport arrival chaos

[skid]

Americans are finally uniting in the realisation that their leader is incompetent and cant be trusted to fix the problem. He has fiddled while his country starts to burn. with the virus in every state.

Yep.....Istead of using money to buy more resperators,and do lots of tests to try to contain the problem.....lets give everyone $1000 ....how convenient on an election year...(as long as the virus majically goes away).......since I only know about the dollar(over humanity)...Lets buy votes..wohoo!...........................Poor Trump....(He is finally dealing with a real crises and he cant avoid reality...no matter what he says)....and judging by what my final year Med school daughter says about his appearance....he would likely not survive the virus(heart disease)

[BlackPeter]

Americans are finally uniting in the realisation that their leader is incompetent and cant be trusted to fix the problem. He has fiddled while his country starts to burn. with the virus in every state.

Don't overestimate the intelligence of the average American rural voter (the people who have according to the US constitution all the power). Donalds current Disapproval Rating is 52.8% (according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) ... which is actually one of his better ratings with a maximum disapproval rate of 57.4% and a minimum of slightly below 50% throughout his reign.

But lets not turn this into the Donald thread ... it is already without him depressing enough.

[skid]

Don't overestimate the intelligence of the average American rural voter (the people who have according to the US constitution all the power). Donalds current Disapproval Rating is 52.8% (according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) ... which is actually one of his better ratings with a maximum disapproval rate of 57.4% and a minimum of slightly below 50% throughout his reign.

But lets not turn this into the Donald thread ... it is already without him depressing enough.

Yep the virus takes center stage...even over Donald and eventually his supoporters?.....im not sure it has come to rural America yet...That may be a ''next stage'' scenario?....Its logical to expect cities first....its still early days

[workingdad]

Large number of people contracting it don't even show symptoms. Vast majority of people contracting it don't need hospitalisation. Even bigger majority make full recovery. Massive, politicised, hysteria fuelled, over reaction.

Maybe we should all start smoking then given not many people get cancer from it......

Leta leave it to the medical professionals to deal with the medical implications.

Over 300 people are dying in the EU daily, let’s x that by 10 as the snow ball rolling down the hill gets bigger and more contract it, the numbers and data is there for those wanting information. NZ is just starting and we need to take this seriously. Our system simply don’t have the head room for anything close to the potential of this. Will ambulances stop responding as staff fall over and go into isolation, rescue helicopters stop flying as pilots and medics do the same, hospital shortages of beds and staff when 20 odd go into isolation with a contact not initially recognized.

As for the thread heading, black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Fridays have eventuated. The debt levels out there are going to cause many headaches, individuals, business and markets are suffering for reason.

Yes many don’t get sick, some do critically and bugs evolve so buckle up, it’s new territory and who knows where it will end.

[jonu]

Maybe we should all start smoking then given not many people get cancer from it......

Leta leave it to the medical professionals to deal with the medical implications.

Over 300 people are dying in the EU daily, let’s x that by 10 as the snow ball rolling down the hill gets bigger and more contract it, the numbers and data is there for those wanting information. NZ is just starting and we need to take this seriously. Our system simply don’t have the head room for anything close to the potential of this. Will ambulances stop responding as staff fall over and go into isolation, rescue helicopters stop flying as pilots and medics do the same, hospital shortages of beds and staff when 20 odd go into isolation with a contact not initially recognized.

As for the thread heading, black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Fridays have eventuated. The debt levels out there are going to cause many headaches, individuals, business and markets are suffering for reason.

Yes many don’t get sick, some do critically and bugs evolve so buckle up, it’s new territory and who knows where it will end.

It's not Bubonic Plague or Ebola!

[workingdad]

It's not Bubonic Plague or Ebola!

Nor is it the flu. It’s a pathogen that has come from animals just like the last corona virus pandemic..... and it is yet to be fully understood.

[blackcap]

Maybe we should all start smoking then given not many people get cancer from it......

Leta leave it to the medical professionals to deal with the medical implications.

Over 300 people are dying in the EU daily, let’s x that by 10 as the snow ball rolling down the hill gets bigger and more contract it, the numbers and data is there for those wanting information. NZ is just starting and we need to take this seriously. Our system simply don’t have the head room for anything close to the potential of this. Will ambulances stop responding as staff fall over and go into isolation, rescue helicopters stop flying as pilots and medics do the same, hospital shortages of beds and staff when 20 odd go into isolation with a contact not initially recognized.

As for the thread heading, black Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Fridays have eventuated. The debt levels out there are going to cause many headaches, individuals, business and markets are suffering for reason.

Yes many don’t get sick, some do critically and bugs evolve so buckle up, it’s new territory and who knows where it will end.

You do realise that in the US, of people that are confirmed Flu cases each year (222,500), 22,000 die. So that is a 10% death rate. There is some serious panic driving by the media going on here.

[workingdad]

You do realise that in the US, of people that are confirmed Flu cases each year (222,500), 22,000 die. So that is a 10% death rate. There is some serious panic driving by the media going on here.

Please show me a peer reviewed journal article that states a 10% death rate from the common flu.....

Why do people not understand the seriousness of this??? Antibiotics don’t work on virus infections, yes those infected can contract concurrent bacterial infections but the death rate of seriously ill people is so high due to no effective treatment. It is down to ones own immune system and given the virus impacts on this it’s an issue. Do you realize that?

[blackcap]

Please show me a peer reviewed journal article that states a 10% death rate from the common flu.....



I did not say that. I said that those that are "confirmed" Flu cases. There are an estimated 36 million people that get the flu every year in the US. Most do not go to hospital or the doctor. Not even close. So the number of deaths from the flu is 0.1% as per WHO. But we only currently have "confirmed" Corona cases, and deaths running at about 3.4% (the average age being 81 odd dying) and people are getting their knickers in a twist. There could well be millions of cases of corona currently, there are plenty with little to no symptoms, so if you take the death rate per total cases then it will be a lot less than the 3.4% scaremonger figure bandied around. Plenty of sports people contracting Corona and days later are on the exercycle and giving the lungs a good pumping.

[jonu]

I did not say that. I said that those that are "confirmed" Flu cases. There are an estimated 36 million people that get the flu every year in the US. Most do not go to hospital or the doctor. Not even close. So the number of deaths from the flu is 0.1% as per WHO. But we only currently have "confirmed" Corona cases, and deaths running at about 3.4% (the average age being 81 odd dying) and people are getting their knickers in a twist. There could well be millions of cases of corona currently, there are plenty with little to no symptoms, so if you take the death rate per total cases then it will be a lot less than the 3.4% scaremonger figure bandied around. Plenty of sports people contracting Corona and days later are on the exercycle and giving the lungs a good pumping.

Agreed blackcap. I hope there are more in the wider community waking up to the media driven hysteria. Politicians need to be calling for calm and pointing these comparisons out. And calling the news media to account.

[workingdad]

I did not say that. I said that those that are "confirmed" Flu cases. There are an estimated 36 million people that get the flu every year in the US. Most do not go to hospital or the doctor. Not even close. So the number of deaths from the flu is 0.1% as per WHO. But we only currently have "confirmed" Corona cases, and deaths running at about 3.4% (the average age being 81 odd dying) and people are getting their knickers in a twist. There could well be millions of cases of corona currently, there are plenty with little to no symptoms, so if you take the death rate per total cases then it will be a lot less than the 3.4% scaremonger figure bandied around. Plenty of sports people contracting Corona and days later are on the exercycle and giving the lungs a good pumping.

So you want to make the comparable benchmark professional athletes on exercycles and death rates on estimates?

Let’s just ignore governments and WHO advice cause there’s someone on Facebook named Shirley that must be a microbiologist, economic expert, pandemic specialist, health professional, financial guru and full time mummy......

8% of the 26,000 people in Italy are serious or critical. This has a long way to play out and a medical journal article l I posted a week ago (that got me called a troll) has the Wuhan average age at 56 with 98% of critical patients dying.

This is yet to fully play out. Hopefully NZ will not have the exponential growth of cases as has happened overseas with the restrictions in place. Simply put, if 50% of the population get it (not evidence based, just an estimate on typical viral influenza spread through a season) and 3% die well you can do the maths.

[jonu]

So you want to make the comparable benchmark professional athletes on exercycles and death rates on estimates?

Let’s just ignore governments and WHO advice cause there’s someone on Facebook named Shirley that must be a microbiologist, economic expert, pandemic specialist, health professional, financial guru and full time mummy......

8% of the 26,000 people in Italy are serious or critical. This has a long way to play out and a medical journal article l I posted a week ago (that got me called a troll) has the Wuhan average age at 56 with 98% of critical patients dying.

This is yet to fully play out. Hopefully NZ will not have the exponential growth of cases as has happened overseas with the restrictions in place. Simply put, if 50% of the population get it (not evidence based, just an estimate on typical viral influenza spread through a season) and 3% die well you can do the maths.

Where do you get 50% of the population getting flu in a typical season? It's been years since I had the proper flu and I don't get vaccinated. I don't know of any in my large family that have had it either.

[ananda77]

Der Spiegel: https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronakrise-epidemiologen-rechnen-mit-monatelangen-einschraenkungen-a-a7743f7f-83e3-44fd-91b0-29f645130207?sara_ecid=soci_upd_wbMbjhOSvViISjc8RP U89NcCvtlFcJ

...use Google translate for English version

[bull....]

NZD collapsing 55c now obviously pricing in NZ as a banana republic soon

[dobby41]

I did not say that. I said that those that are "confirmed" Flu cases. There are an estimated 36 million people that get the flu every year in the US. Most do not go to hospital or the doctor. Not even close. So the number of deaths from the flu is 0.1% as per WHO. But we only currently have "confirmed" Corona cases, and deaths running at about 3.4% (the average age being 81 odd dying) and people are getting their knickers in a twist. There could well be millions of cases of corona currently, there are plenty with little to no symptoms, so if you take the death rate per total cases then it will be a lot less than the 3.4% scaremonger figure bandied around. Plenty of sports people contracting Corona and days later are on the exercycle and giving the lungs a good pumping.

Where are you going with this?
Are you suggesting that nothing should be done for it and leave it to run it's course?

[jonu]

NZD collapsing 55c now obviously pricing in NZ as a banana republic soon

Fantastic for exporters. Presumably our imports are dropping anyway. Farmers will be over the moon!

[bull....]

Fantastic for exporters. Presumably our imports are dropping anyway. Farmers will be over the moon!

yes but only if our competitors currencies are not declining as well and demand holds up in the countries we export to

[workingdad]

Where do you get 50% of the population getting flu in a typical season? It's been years since I had the proper flu and I don't get vaccinated. I don't know of any in my large family that have had it either.

As per my comment ‘not evidence based’. Anecdotally if it was my school aged children I would say 100% likely, colleagues would be 90%, extended family would be half, young healthier friends maybe something like 33% likely in the season.

What’s the proper flu you refer to, is that like the same as the usual flu but with milder symptoms? If so then it is the SAME pathogen, some get mild symptoms, some get moderate and some get severe but it’s still the flu.....

Anyway, I’m off to work shortly. People can view this pandemic anyway they want to. This forum is a financial one not a health one. The covid-19 is a health (nearly used the word crisis) problem, its global financial impacts are plainly obvious.

[jonu]

yes but only if our competitors currencies are not declining as well and demand holds up in the countries we export to

People still gotta eat! But look for the downside bull... It's what you do.

[jonu]

As per my comment ‘not evidence based’. Anecdotally if it was my school aged children I would say 100% likely, colleagues would be 90%, extended family would be half, young healthier friends maybe something like 33% likely in the season.

What’s the proper flu you refer to, is that like the same as the usual flu but with milder symptoms? If so then it is the SAME pathogen, some get mild symptoms, some get moderate and some get severe but it’s still the flu.....

Anyway, I’m off to work shortly. People can view this pandemic anyway they want to. This forum is a financial one not a health one. The covid-19 is a health (nearly used the word crisis) problem, its global financial impacts are plainly obvious.

So you get stuck into blackcap and accuse him of relying on Shirley from Facebook and then proceed to make inflated figures up. Classy.

[bull....]

People still gotta eat! But look for the downside bull... It's what you do.

reality man. just like US futures are sliding again at this time for tonight

[tipsy]

Maybe we should all start smoking then given not many people get cancer from it......



Over 8 million deaths per year, just saying.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

[Jerry]

The lag between infection, ability to pass infection on and symptoms appearing means the number about to swamp hospitals can exceed the ability to treat them all. Who will they allow to die? The doctor may decide it's you. Or you may be the road traffic accident person in emergency who doesn't get seen in time.
For the figures look...
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[jonu]

Over 8 million deaths per year, just saying.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

HELP!!!! We need to shut the borders to death sticks now!

[lissica]

You do realise that in the US, of people that are confirmed Flu cases each year (222,500), 22,000 die. So that is a 10% death rate. There is some serious panic driving by the media going on here.

Seasonal flu fatality rates are around about 0.1% most years. You'd need something worse than Spanish flu to approach a 10% fatality rate.

Most cases of the 'flu' are not confirmed with a diagnostic test, it's made clinically.

[workingdad]

So you get stuck into blackcap and accuse him of relying on Shirley from Facebook and then proceed to make inflated figures up. Classy.

I don’t think I got stuck into anyone or accuse blackcap of being shirley. If that’s the way it was received I apolysise but perhaps you are being a bit defensive.

I certainly and very strongly disagree with 10% of people with the flu dying. Blackcaps financial acumen has been something I have valued over the years, perhaps listening to someone in the industry with regards to covid-19 has its merits as well. My comments and perspective is not solely reliant on MOH or WHO. From a financial point of view or rather market specific it is obvious this is more than hype and a flash in the pan. Give it time to play out and let’s talk in a month.

As for inflated figures I’ve no idea what you are referring to.

[jonu]

I don’t think I got stuck into anyone or accuse blackcap of being shirley. If that’s the way it was received I apolysise but perhaps you are being a bit defensive.

I certainly and very strongly disagree with 10% of people with the flu dying. Blackcaps financial acumen has been something I have valued over the years, perhaps listening to someone in the industry with regards to covid-19 has its merits as well. My comments and perspective is not solely reliant on MOH or WHO. From a financial point of view or rather market specific it is obvious this is more than hype and a flash in the pan. Give it time to play out and let’s talk in a month.

As for inflated figures I’ve no idea what you are referring to.

You said 50% of people get the flu in a season. You accused blackcap of RELYING on Shirley.... and then effectively proceeded to be Shirley. (Your analogy). Anyway, apology accepted. I just feel the need to callout hysteria and hyperbole. There is a lot of it about.

[bull....]

Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19 In the U.S., 705 of first 2,500 cases range in age from 20 to 44

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/coronavirus-in-young-people-is-it-dangerous-data-show-it-can-be?srnd=premium-asia

[bull....]

Fantastic for exporters. Presumably our imports are dropping anyway. Farmers will be over the moon!

not so fantastic

seeka cancels dividend

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350272

jonu in lala land

[workingdad]

You said 50% of people get the flu in a season. You accused blackcap of RELYING on Shirley.... and then effectively proceeded to be Shirley. (Your analogy). Anyway, apology accepted. I just feel the need to callout hysteria and hyperbole. There is a lot of it about.

I dont see it that way but hey, sometimes posts are interpreted in a way they were not intended.

I will ask if you are calling me out on hysteria just to check the interpretation of that.

I did say that and also said not evidence based, my school age kids yes every year, my colleagues at 80% yes but I think you have figured out what industry I am in so that’s still about right Given their exposure, and my friends being about a third isn’t too far off either, probably cause a lot of them are arms length of my industry as well so to me, the anecdotal 50% is about right. To be absolute though and in context. NZ stats are 10-20% contamination flu per season. http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/environment/environmental-reporting-series/environmental-indicators/Home/Atmosphere-and-climate/influenza.aspx

Now, given the virulence of Covid-19 being able to live for 3 days on surfaces it is quite a strong wee mite so how do you think that stacks up? Just more hysteria and hyperbole?

[jonu]

not so fantastic

seeka cancels dividend

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350272

jonu in lala land

Bollocks bull...

Nothing to say their business has been impacted yet. Labour is short. Won't be for long. Just being prudent. The weaker dollar will help them greatly.

Also kiwifruit is a great source of vitamin C. Stock up all you doomers!

[skid]

It's not Bubonic Plague or Ebola!

Its a virus that in some cases leads to pnuemonia

[skid]

So you get stuck into blackcap and accuse him of relying on Shirley from Facebook and then proceed to make inflated figures up. Classy.

Im just trying to interpret your message.....are you saying it should be business as usual?

[jonu]

Im just trying to interpret your message.....are you saying it should be business as usual?

That post taken in context, was about a poster accusing another poster relying on BS off Facebook for their source of information, and then that same person making up stuff themselves. What was so hard to interpret? I was saying don't use made up stuff to attack someone else with, especially when you are accusing them of using made up stuff!

[workingdad]

That post taken in context, was about a poster accusing another poster relying on BS off Facebook for their source of information, and then that same person making up stuff themselves. What was so hard to interpret? I was saying don't use made up stuff to attack someone else with, especially when you are accusing them of using made up stuff!

I think the less said the better but....Rereading my post the comment was generic. I certainly didn’t intend to make anyone cry. Time to come down from your horse jonu

[jonu]

I think the less said the better but....Rereading my post the comment was generic. I certainly didn’t intend to make anyone cry. Time to come down from your horse jonu

Wasn't intending to have another crack at you workingdad. Was just having to spell it out to skid who it seems was trying to put words in my mouth.

[jonu]

Where have all the doomers gone? DJ up nearly 1% last night. Looks like all those futures scavengers got burnt. Oh dear.

[Balance]

Where have all the doomers gone? DJ up nearly 1% last night. Looks like all those futures scavengers got burnt. Oh dear.

Thanks to them I bought back some shares yesterday at 40% of what I sold them out just under two months ago.

In your lifetime, you will get a few of these kind of opportunities - make the best of them because the next one will be another 10 years away.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks to them I bought back some shares yesterday at 40% of what I sold them out just under two months ago.

In your lifetime, you will get a few of these kind of opportunities - make the best of them because the next one will be another 10 years away.

True ... but I don't really expect that this will be the last opportunity in this crisis to buy cheap shares :);

Discl: started nibbling, but still plenty of ammunition left;

[bull....]

just back from the supermarket reconnaisance total bedlam , doors opened and 500 people waiting at doors rushed in according to operator , no carparks , ques mile long . anyway got my heaps eye fillet at half price and some good wine so im set for the end if thats the way we going

[bull....]

Coronavirus: Government to spend $28m redeploying forestry workers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120434007/coronavirus-government-to-spend-28m-redeploying-forestry-workers

good to see govt planning for the eventual recovery some day

[Balance]

True ... but I don't really expect that this will be the last opportunity in this crisis to buy cheap shares :);

Discl: started nibbling, but still plenty of ammunition left;

Agreed.

The worse could still come if there’s a total lockdown.

Then, a whole new generation of investors who have known nothing but a bull market will experience a phenomena called ‘capitulation’.

Let’s hope that day does not arrive in NZ.

[Biscuit]

Agreed.

The worse could still come if there’s a total lockdown.

Then, a whole new generation of investors who have known nothing but a bull market will experience a phenomena called ‘capitulation’.

Let’s hope that day does not arrive in NZ.

It is highly likely that there is going to be a lock-down in some form very soon. Given events overseas and NZ Govt determination to keep on top of this, as soon as there is community spread detected, there will be a lock-down.

[Balance]

It is highly likely that there is going to be a lock-down in some form very soon. Given events overseas and NZ Govt determination to keep on top of this, as soon as there is community spread detected, there will be a lock-down.

Wait for capitulation then.

[Biscuit]

Wait for capitulation then.

Looking forward to it!

[Balance]

Looking forward to it!


For investment, yes.

For NZ, no.

[Sideshow Bob]

just back from the supermarket reconnaisance total bedlam , doors opened and 500 people waiting at doors rushed in according to operator , no carparks , ques mile long . anyway got my heaps eye fillet at half price and some good wine so im set for the end if thats the way we going

I thought you'd have an emergency bunker Bull!

PS - hope it was a prime steer tenderloin and not a bull tenderloin...…;)

[Zaphod]

just back from the supermarket reconnaisance total bedlam , doors opened and 500 people waiting at doors rushed in according to operator , no carparks , ques mile long . anyway got my heaps eye fillet at half price and some good wine so im set for the end if thats the way we going

Garden centres are also being cleaned out of seeds and bedding plants. Unfortunately those are the lowest margin items.

[skid]

Wasn't intending to have another crack at you workingdad. Was just having to spell it out to skid who it seems was trying to put words in my mouth.

when I say ''interpret your message'' I mean in a general sense.....You seem to be downplaying the situation and severity of the virus..are you uposet people are taking it seriously?...so my question still stands.....I get you ,and alot of people are frustrated ,thats natural...this is not a good thing for the economy.
But,do you think it should have been business as usual,because this virus is not that much of a threat?
If its not the ''plague'' or ''Ebola''is it not a threat?
Seems the most straightforward way of clarifying yourself would be to simply answer the question.

[skid]

Where have all the doomers gone? DJ up nearly 1% last night. Looks like all those futures scavengers got burnt. Oh dear.

OK....Ill have a go,.. at the need for caution(you can call it a ''doomer'' if you like)..............i think (rightly or wrongly)that it is possible to be to close to the action....when your looking day to day(Ive been there) it is sometimes possible to loose sight of the big picture. Where does that 1% gain fit into the grand scheme....Is that where the market is heading after some gigantic mistake in selling ,due to what alot consider the uncertainty of the general economic situation?(and now they have lost out because in spite of the situation ,its all up from here?) Or is it a minute part of a very volitile situation that could very well continue down hill ,before it gets better........Alot say its going to get worse before it gets better.....I dont think its unreasonable to be cautious. When you buy you are banking on alot of upswing...does the market have that kind of legs atm?.....................alot of traders ,much wiser than me say.....wait for the momentum to start again.

[jonu]

when I say ''interpret your message'' I mean in a general sense.....You seem to be downplaying the situation and severity of the virus..are you uposet people are taking it seriously?...so my question still stands.....I get you ,and alot of people are frustrated ,thats natural...this is not a good thing for the economy.
But,do you think it should have been business as usual,because this virus is not that much of a threat?
If its not the ''plague'' or ''Ebola''is it not a threat?
Seems the most straightforward way of clarifying yourself would be to simply answer the question.

It helps if you ask a clear question, rather than reinterpreting my posts.

I think The Indian government's response was telling. They are keeping their resources for more serious diseases. Things like Cholera, Typhoid and probably Plague isn't unknown to them. I thought the initial reaction from the UK was sensible and sound. Unfortunately they caved to the hysteria that surrounds us.

[jonu]

OK....Ill have a go,.. at the need for caution(you can call it a ''doomer'' if you like)..............i think (rightly or wrongly)that it is possible to be to close to the action....when your looking day to day(Ive been there) it is sometimes possible to loose sight of the big picture. Where does that 1% gain fit into the grand scheme....Is that where the market is heading after some gigantic mistake in selling ,due to what alot consider the uncertainty of the general economic situation?(and now they have lost out because in spite of the situation ,its all up from here?) Or is it a minute part of a very volitile situation that could very well continue down hill ,before it gets better........Alot say its going to get worse before it gets better.....I dont think its unreasonable to be cautious. When you buy you are banking on alot of upswing...does the market have that kind of legs atm?.....................alot of traders ,much wiser than me say.....wait for the momentum to start again.

I was responding to updates from bull.... who was reporting the DJ futures were already showing a drop of 400 points.

bull.... appears to take strange enjoyment from trawling the worst news he can find and shouting it from the rooftops, some of it factual, some of it garbage. I have called him out a few times, as have others.

[Jaa]

I think The Indian government's response was telling. They are keeping their resources for more serious diseases. Things like Cholera, Typhoid and probably Plague isn't unknown to them. I thought the initial reaction from the UK was sensible and sound. Unfortunately they caved to the hysteria that surrounds us.

Mumbai on Partial Lockdown as India Tries to Contain Virus (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/mumbai-on-partial-lockdown-as-india-tries-to-contain-coronavirus)


Authorities ordered all non-essential businesses in Mumbai and across the broader state to shut from midnight through the end of March to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

[Raz]

Mumbai on Partial Lockdown as India Tries to Contain Virus (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/mumbai-on-partial-lockdown-as-india-tries-to-contain-coronavirus)

A lot of decision makers in the financial markets live in LA, London and NYC, they have full disruption in their faces at the minute..not able just to stay in their small bubble...expect major fund movements as a consequence, momentum is just beginning.

[blackcap]

A lot of decision makers in the financial markets live in LA, London and NYC, they have full disruption in their faces at the minute..not able just to stay in their small bubble...expect major fund movements as a consequence, momentum is just beginning.

More pain likely on Monday. Dow down 850 pts with 7 mins to go till close.

[bull....]

More pain likely on Monday. Dow down 850 pts with 7 mins to go till close.

Not a good close for the week , near the lows. so your probably right more pain coming.

In context of economic damage to come the markets are still very overvalued even after a 30% fall. So one should model eventual declines in the stock market on the crash of 1929 as 2007 or 1987 or even the other ones are not a comparable crash situations to whats happening in an economic sense. So maybe another 30 - 40% decline still to come weather this is over a short couple months or over a longer period we dont know because we dont know how long the virus situation will be around. the only thing certain is there wont be a V recovery.

Everyone needs to keep virus out. watch the video to see and imagine this could be you

https://youtu.be/_J60fQr0GWo

[Entrep]

That was nasty indeed! I still have a good amount of cash to deploy (about 70% of my "war chest), but have spent around 30% of the total buying so far. It was never my plan to try and get the bottom and I am comfortable with the prices I have paid of course in the context of a return to normal, but seeing the large unrealised losses (and that never will be realised as losses) in my portfolio sustained even in the last week or so still hurts.

[fish]

That was nasty indeed! I still have a good amount of cash to deploy (about 70% of my "war chest), but have spent around 30% of the total buying so far. It was never my plan to try and get the bottom and I am comfortable with the prices I have paid of course in the context of a return to normal, but seeing the large unrealised losses (and that never will be realised as losses) in my portfolio sustained even in the last week or so still hurts.

You sound in a really good position.
Why let it hurt-you have bought safely and will get good dividends.
You still have plenty of your war chest should the market over-react to Jacindas noon today announcement(?she cannot deny community spread for much longer and needs tougher quarantine)
These are difficult times but the world has faced much worse epidemics with less tools in the past)
Occupy yourself to make it easier to practically make the future better(not going to the supermarket and becoming more self-sufficient)