Black Monday

[bull....]

fed just saying during there press conference repo operations not changing until april now.

[bull....]

nasty night on US markets so far

the month of january has been turned on its head due to corona virus most likely. after looking like a great month mid month % wise us markets are on verge of posting negative january month except the nasdaq.

safe haven buying is evident with the 10 yr , utilities and gold both up % wise for the month

barometers to future gdp growth have declined during january with oil , copper and the flattening of the yield curve on some parts and inversion in others again signalling possible slower growth ahead.

mentioned in december US stock market was at risk of a fall in january due to overbrought levels guess the corona virus was the catalyst for the correction we are now experiencing. how long it lasts or goes probably be totally dependant on how long or how big the virus goes i guess.

NZ and Aus stock markets had boomer mths except virus affected industries , so be interesting how they trade in feb. asx and nz seasonally normally has have a good feb probably due to dividend chasing i reckon. but with a wild card virus out there who knows these things can sometimes throw spanners in the works.

prudence is my answer.

next week we have china re - opening on monday looks like a 8 - 9% fall will happen at this stage.
also in the us markets iowa bernie sanders result worth watching
and of course the virus needs to be watched if it keeps going up cant be good

[couta1]

nasty night on US markets so far

the month of january has been turned on its head due to corona virus most likely. after looking like a great month mid month % wise us markets are on verge of posting negative january month except the nasdaq.

safe haven buying is evident with the 10 yr , utilities and gold both up % wise for the month

barometers to future gdp growth have declined during january with oil , copper and the flattening of the yield curve on some parts and inversion in others again signalling possible slower growth ahead.

mentioned in december US stock market was at risk of a fall in january due to overbrought levels guess the corona virus was the catalyst for the correction we are now experiencing. how long it lasts or goes probably be totally dependant on how long or how big the virus goes i guess.

NZ and Aus stock markets had boomer mths except virus affected industries , so be interesting how they trade in feb. asx and nz seasonally normally has have a good feb probably due to dividend chasing i reckon. but with a wild card virus out there who knows these things can sometimes throw spanners in the works.

prudence is my answer.

next week we have china re - opening on monday looks like a 8 - 9% fall will happen at this stage.
also in the us markets iowa bernie sanders result worth watching
and of course the virus needs to be watched if it keeps going up cant be good My answer is to ignore all the media bs, let the panickers do what they do best, make a nice cup of tea and do nothing. PS-Im nearly all in again and looking forward with great anticipation to the upcoming A2 result.

[Beagle]

Bull...agree, its good to be prudent and manage risk. Good post.

[bull....]

weekend futures implying a big fall in us stocks for monday already at this stage

[Baa_Baa]

weekend futures implying a big fall in us stocks for monday already at this stage

On top of DOW 600 point drop on their Friday, futures currently another -560 down, almost certainly be a black Monday tomorrow.

[Crypto Crude]

My answer is to ignore all the media bs, let the panickers do what they do best, make a nice cup of tea and do nothing. PS-Im nearly all in again and looking forward with great anticipation to the upcoming A2 result.

Lol couta,
Your gona get crushed like a bug...

[Baa_Baa]

Lol couta,
Your gona get crushed like a bug...

4 weeks away till ATM results, a long time if the market gets a panic. No-one wants anyone being bug crushed, though I expect a gap down open tomorrow, could even look to close the gap at 13.15 in next few days. A2M will lead the way, but ATM still has a couple of hours to thrash around before ASX opens.

[bull....]

Lol couta,
Your gona get crushed like a bug...

poor couta all in and what not , if i was him i would get drunk on a2 and kahlua so i miss tomorrow

[Arbroath]

On top of DOW 600 point drop on their Friday, futures currently another -560 down, almost certainly be a black Monday tomorrow.

The futures closed implying very little about Monday. The -560 is the futures reflecting Friday's fall not an extra fall etc. hard to say what the market will do Monday.

The he biggest problem is trusting China's numbers which seem very controlled with about 45 deaths and 2,000 new cases each of the last 3 days. Seems a bit too convenient.

[bull....]

getting our reaction rally be interesting to see how it plays out over the week ,


this guy reckons dont buy the reaction


Economist Mohamed El-Erian is warning investors not to buy declines in the stock market like they might have done before the coronavirus

“It is big. It’s going to paralyze China. It’s going to cascade throughout the global economy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/el-erian-says-coronavirus-to-paralyze-china-dont-buy-stock-dips.html


anyway looks like the best hedge on the planet today is tesla lol

[ratkin]

European shares close higher as coronavirus fears ebb; (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/europe-markets-set-for-higher-open-despite-brexit-coronavirus.html)

[Lewylewylewy]

The trouble is that the sp isnt dropping in nz due to the virus, its the reaction of the govt damaging tourism and logs etc. So I don't think that nzx will see such a bounce back to the previous highs.

[Blue Skies]

The trouble is that the sp isnt dropping in nz due to the virus, its the reaction of the govt damaging tourism and logs etc. So I don't think that nzx will see such a bounce back to the previous highs.


Lew the way it works, is the govt follows the advice of our public health experts, & they would be foolish to ignore their advice.
To suggest the NZ share market drop is nothing to do with Coronavirus, but because the govt has set out to 'damage tourism and logs etc' is simply beyond comprehension.

There's no need to politicise everything, what would you have them do?

We followed Australia & the US by 1 day.
They have to walk a fine line between protecting the country from the virus without overreacting.
It's deeply complex & difficult, some of it (like the log exports) completely beyond our control but so far they seem to have got it about right.

[bull....]

tesla going parabolic lol

[Lewylewylewy]

Lew the way it works, is the govt follows the advice of our public health experts, & they would be foolish to ignore their advice.
To suggest the NZ share market drop is nothing to do with Coronavirus, but because the govt has set out to 'damage tourism and logs etc' is simply beyond comprehension.

There's no need to politicise everything, what would you have them do?

We followed Australia & the US by 1 day.
They have to walk a fine line between protecting the country from the virus without overreacting.
It's deeply complex & difficult, some of it (like the log exports) completely beyond our control but so far they seem to have got it about right.

Yeah, I'm not having a go. Im just saying, that's the reason. To clarify: someone asked if the sp drop was due to coronavirus. imo the sp is going down due to the damage from the govt decision to block tourists, logs, etc. Not due to concerns of the virus killing off the world's population or making people so bed ridden that they can't get out buying stuff. So, if the virus was deemed to be less damaging than thought or cured, there would still be damage to the balance sheet; hence i don't think it will recover too previous highs.

I did ponder what I would do if it were me in charge. It's an ethical black hole that goes deeper and deeper the more you think about it. Then i realised that I'm not in charge, and I can't change anything, and I don't have to think about it. So i stopped thinking about it.

PS: kind of sick of people taking what i say, turning it into something different, then having a go at me for the thing they just made up:

"...the govt has set out to 'damage tourism and logs etc' is simply beyond comprehension..."

Rude and stupid.

[ynot]

Classic black swan event. From a market perspective alone it's timing could not be worse. The market has been looking for a reason to turn, it may have found it.

[Blue Skies]

Yeah, I'm not having a go. Im just saying, that's the reason. To clarify: someone asked if the sp drop was due to coronavirus. imo the sp is going down due to the damage from the govt decision to block tourists, logs, etc. Not due to concerns of the virus killing off the world's population or making people so bed ridden that they can't get out buying stuff. So, if the virus was deemed to be less damaging than thought or cured, there would still be damage to the balance sheet; hence i don't think it will recover too previous highs.

I did ponder what I would do if it were me in charge. It's an ethical black hole that goes deeper and deeper the more you think about it. Then i realised that I'm not in charge, and I can't change anything, and I don't have to think about it. So i stopped thinking about it.

PS: kind of sick of people taking what i say, turning it into something different, then having a go at me for the thing they just made up:

"...the govt has set out to 'damage tourism and logs etc' is simply beyond comprehension..."

Rude and stupid.

Hey Lew, apologies, I misinterpretted what you meant & should have been more careful with my choice of words.

It's just I get a little irritated seeing comments on here blaming the govt for being asleep at the wheel & at the other extreme for over reacting, politicising the whole thing when we know it's extremely complicated, working on incomplete information, & any action or response comes with a cost just as doing nothing also has big risks.
Ministers are taking best advice from public health experts, walking a fine line between protecting us from an outbreak while trying not to antagonise our main trading partner & cripple the economy. Impossible, opposing goals!

Anyway this hot weather diabolical, little sleep, feeling a bit grumpy this morning, hope there's no hard feelings.

BTW surely our govt hasn't blocked the logs? I wouldn't know but assumed that was from China?

(Just read in the Gisborne Herald, the reason exporters have stopped buying logs is because there's not enough people at work in the ports in China to unload them from the ships when they arrive, due the Chinese govt extending the New Year shut down period. Nothing to do with our govt. )

[bull....]

tesla up another 15% lol these momentum surges are insane haha

[Brain]

For those who like cartoons

[nizzy]

China distribution chains have all slowed down as there's no-one at work - no-one to drive the forklifts, do the customs entry, manage the warehouses. Impacts very rapidly on NZ (and Aust) across multiple industries, more so than European economies. eg Coolstores are full of NZ/Aust meat = new shipments are being delayed, discounting in NZ supermarkets to clear at least some volume, and the coolstores in both NZ and China are needed for the fruit season just getting underway (eg Kiwifruit).

[winner69]

Should be a good day on the NZX today

[bull....]

Should be a good day on the NZX today

you would think so , i notice oil wasnt up today normally when you get a true risk on day oil will rally as well

[Brain]

China distribution chains have all slowed down as there's no-one at work - no-one to drive the forklifts, do the customs entry, manage the warehouses. Impacts very rapidly on NZ (and Aust) across multiple industries, more so than European economies. eg Coolstores are full of NZ/Aust meat = new shipments are being delayed, discounting in NZ supermarkets to clear at least some volume, and the coolstores in both NZ and China are needed for the fruit season just getting underway (eg Kiwifruit).

The Chinese guys will sort it out. They always do. What other country can build a hospital in 10 days. They are extremely well organised. In Nz we would be drafting the first page of the resource consent. I have a lot of respect for the Chinese.

[Southern_Belle]

Hey Lew, apologies, I misinterpretted what you meant & should have been more careful with my choice of words.

It's just I get a little irritated seeing comments on here blaming the govt for being asleep at the wheel & at the other extreme for over reacting, politicising the whole thing when we know it's extremely complicated, working on incomplete information, & any action or response comes with a cost just as doing nothing also has big risks.
Ministers are taking best advice from public health experts, walking a fine line between protecting us from an outbreak while trying not to antagonise our main trading partner & cripple the economy. Impossible, opposing goals!

Anyway this hot weather diabolical, little sleep, feeling a bit grumpy this morning, hope there's no hard feelings.

BTW surely our govt hasn't blocked the logs? I wouldn't know but assumed that was from China?

(Just read in the Gisborne Herald, the reason exporters have stopped buying logs is because there's not enough people at work in the ports in China to unload them from the ships when they arrive, due the Chinese govt extending the New Year shut down period. Nothing to do with our govt. )
Yes that is correct, they are not unloading logs (and other commodities) in the ports. The logging industry has been going through a tough time for the past year, this is worldwide not just NZ.

[sb9]

tesla up another 15% lol these momentum surges are insane haha

That's result of shorts got caught with their pants down and they're scrambling to cover as Tesla came out with big earnings results....

[Timesurfer]

Yes that is correct, they are not unloading logs (and other commodities) in the ports. The logging industry has been going through a tough time for the past year, this is worldwide not just NZ.

NZ logging is a dubious industry if we are relying on China trade anyway. No way we can compete with the now complete train tracks into the Russian forests.

[bull....]

Coronavirus


seems to be putting a lid on the rally at the moment the moment

Coronavirus death toll rises to 26 with more than 900 confirmed cases worldwide




The majority of the reported cases are in mainland China, where travel bans were in effect Friday for at least 10 cities.
Multiple cases of the virus have been confirmed in Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore and Japan.
The United States reported its second case Friday, and Taiwan has reported one

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-death-toll-rises-to-26-with-more-than-900-confirmed-cases-worldwide.html


have a look at this you tube video of the new 1000 bed hospital they are building in wuhan will be fully built in feb thats right feb lol man they can build things quick. i believe nz is still have a working group on the matter of upgrading hospitals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JDbvo-_gRE

rally seems to be back on in US markets , correction seems to have been short lived as mentioned in the post above and highlighted by the words moment it really did only seem like a moment for US markets.
Not surprising i guess china accounts for a small % of economic output for the US compared to a country like NZ where it accounts a much larger % so it would really only have a big impact in the US if it spread there.
For countries like NZ and AUS the impact is much more than the US mainly because of there dependence on china for trade.

[Balance]

NZ logging is a dubious industry if we are relying on China trade anyway. No way we can compete with the now complete train tracks into the Russian forests.

NZ can compete - I have had chats with the GM of one of the biggest private owners of forests in NZ.

The problem is that most in the industry here think short term, are not prepared to invest in new plantings as they are over-geared, the over-gearing means that they cannot endure short term market upheavals and as the GM commented, are not able to hold back from harvesting when prices are not right.

Trees keep growing - they do not have to be harvested!

As for long term supply contracts, most NZ players think that they are God’s gift to trading so they do not lock in long tw contracts. Recipe for disaster.

[Timesurfer]

I am not sure it is that simple.
For instance, trees keep growing but we have set up our mills so that they only process small logs!
Not that local mills compete too well with high log prices so forest owners don’t look after them and then when the international market crashes we suddenly have no local option.
I haven’t noticed the overseas owners being too afraid to ramp harvesting right down when it suits them.

However the local MDF plant is reportedly suffering little from the China situation with plenty of orders coming through still. If we weren’t a third world country we would not be sending any logs off shore unprocessed.

[BlackPeter]

tesla up another 15% lol these momentum surges are insane haha

"Insane" is the right word for hype. Now 21% down. I assume you changed after posting this immediately from long to short - did you?

[Balance]

I am not sure it is that simple.
For instance, trees keep growing but we have set up our mills so that they only process small logs!
Not that local mills compete too well with high log prices so forest owners don’t look after them and then when the international market crashes we suddenly have no local option.
I haven’t noticed the overseas owners being too afraid to ramp harvesting right down when it suits them.

However the local MDF plant is reportedly suffering little from the China situation with plenty of orders coming through still. If we weren’t a third world country we would not be sending any logs off shore unprocessed.

I can only pass on the comments from the GM who I have dealt with for over 20 years - one of those straight up individuals and not one to suffer fools easily.

They allow the trees to grow not to be harvested in NZ but to be exported later when prices are right.

Asked him why NZ exports so much of our logs, he has a simple reply - what are NZ radiata pine good for? They are not high value timber which can be used for furniture or flooring so further processing in NZ at our high costs simply do not make sense.

This is what happens when investments are made with short term horizons.

I was in Cambodia a few years ago and the government there was planting teak which takes 50 years to 75 years to reach maturity! Will never ever happen in NZ!

[Timesurfer]

I can only pass on the comments from the GM who I have dealt with for over 20 years - one of those straight up individuals and not one to suffer fools easily.

They allow the trees to grow not to be harvested in NZ but to be exported later when prices are right.

Asked him why NZ exports so much of our logs, he has a simple reply - what are NZ radiata pine good for? They are not high value timber which can be used for furniture or flooring so further processing in NZ at our high costs simply do not make sense.

This is what happens when investments are made with short term horizons.

I was in Cambodia a few years ago and the government there was planting teak which takes 50 years to 75 years to reach maturity! Will never ever happen in NZ!

I agree with you about radiata being rubbish timber and would rather see a more visionary approach. But we in NZ aren’t real good at seeing past a quick buck which is why we sell our fruit trees to places like South America that will never make our locally produced fruit redundant.

That said, someone must be doing something with the trees we export (like making pallets?) or as they are locally, making MDF (which another boat load of leaves today for Japan).

On the bright side for local timber exporters - to add to the Chinese related virus issues you also now have Australia looking to ditch a bunch of fire damaged trees before they become bug infested too.

[macduffy]

That said, someone must be doing something with the trees we export (like making pallets?) or as they are locally, making MDF (which another boat load of leaves today for Japan).

And paper, perhaps? After all, it was the abundance of radiata pine planted in the central North Island that was the impetus to build Tasman's plant at Kawerau and NZ Forest Products' at Kinleith all those years ago.

[bull....]

us markets approaching key targets 30 k dow

[bull....]

The epidemic has negatively impacted the overall China economy, especially the retail and service sectors,” said Wu in a conference call after the results. “While demand for goods and services is there, the means of production in the economy has been hampered by the delayed opening of offices, factories and schools after the Lunar New Year’s holiday.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/alibaba-s-revenue-beats-after-singles-day-offsets-china-slowdown?srnd=premium-asia

from alibaba results

[bull....]

At this stage black monday only for NZ. potential for double top or trading range developing

[winner69]

Record number of call options bought last week in US ...whatever that signals

[Balance]

Record number of call options bought last week in US ...whatever that signals

Normally very bullish.

[bull....]

SP500 consolidating 3391 -3354

[bull....]

watching the US 10yr very close to smashing the near 10 yr support level :scared:

[bull....]

sp 500 broke down from the consolidation , gold going parabolic as mentioned it would start of week , US 10 yr flirting with 10 yr lows on huge support line at the moment. things are getting interesting.

[BlackPeter]

sp 500 broke down from the consolidation , gold going parabolic as mentioned it would start of week , US 10 yr flirting with 10 yr lows on huge support line at the moment. things are getting interesting.

Not typically with you ... but I agree that the combination of the recent virus news (spreading now in war torn regions of the middle east) together with the recent confirmation of human stupidity and selfishness from the Ukraine might well offer us next week some real revaluation opportunities in the markets.

Negative hype i.e. fear well might take over the markets - glad I did hold on my Strong Bear :);

[value_investor]

DOW up 0.43% for the year
S&P500 up 2.45% for the year

Meanwhile the NZX50 is up 4.4% for the year. We've been quite sheltered from the Coronavirus stuff, I still stunning we haven't had a single case. I'm quite surprised that earnings have been strong over here so far this year as well, my hope for bargains rearing its head is slowly dwindling and I've been considering putting my money in a index tracking fund in the interim (ie FNZ)

[BlackPeter]

DOW up 0.43% for the year
S&P500 up 2.45% for the year

Meanwhile the NZX50 is up 4.4% for the year. We've been quite sheltered from the Coronavirus stuff, I still stunning we haven't had a single case. I'm quite surprised that earnings have been strong over here so far this year as well, my hope for bargains rearing its head is slowly dwindling and I've been considering putting my money in a index tracking fund in the interim (ie FNZ)

Obviously - nobody knows what's around the corner, but somehow I think it feels at the moment more like observing the last hurray of a dying bull than the first green shoots after a long winter ...

No matter how serious this virus turns out to be for humans - sorting out the logistical issues human overreaction created already will take at least some months with reduced economic activity on a world wide scale. Can't really see how New Zealand will manage not to get affected.

Not sure whether this is the best time to start index tracking, but hey - I've been wrong before :);

[ratkin]

DOW up 0.43% for the year
S&P500 up 2.45% for the year

Meanwhile the NZX50 is up 4.4% for the year. We've been quite sheltered from the Coronavirus stuff, I still stunning we haven't had a single case. I'm quite surprised that earnings have been strong over here so far this year as well, my hope for bargains rearing its head is slowly dwindling and I've been considering putting my money in a index tracking fund in the interim (ie FNZ)

I monthly drip money into a European fund, valuations are far less stretched there. Will probably fall, but that just means I receive more units for my money each month, it all averages out.

[ratkin]

You would strongly suspect once the pandemic is announced there will be some plan in place to keep the markets propped up.

[bull....]

futures prices on most markets opening 25 mins give an indication on peoples thinking for the week ahead

[bull....]

looking pretty red for US markets tonight at the moment >1% falls forecast. gold up another $20 odd , watch the 10yr closely

[bull....]

futures tanking more now after china had press conference saying there will be economic impact.

[Beagle]

Quite a gnarly day on the markets today and Aussie got belted with the ugly stick too.
Dow futures currently down ~ 380 points so not looking good for tomorrow.

[couta1]

Quite a gnarly day on the markets today and Aussie got belted with the ugly stick too.
Dow futures currently down ~ 380 points so not looking good for tomorrow. Yep looking forward to spending the rest of my money tomorrow as the panic continues then it's time to go fishing.

[Beagle]

Yep looking forward to spending the rest of my money tomorrow as the panic continues then it's time to go fishing.

It won't be so much fun fishing off the wharf ? Might pay to keep a bit of powder dry and go and charter a nice boat in the Marlborough sounds and take a break from the market next week.

Market has enjoyed a fantastic run for the last 11 years, especially a stellar year in 2019 and even the first bit of 2020. Sometimes it just pays to sit back and accept that the tide doesn't always come in (if you'll excuse the expression), and maybe this black swan event marks the turning of the tide...i.e. the market is now just starting to behave rationally to the likely significant global and local economic fallout of this new virus.

This old dog is too tired to swim against the tide, its too much hard work especially seeing as my preferred swimming technique is dog paddle :D

[Bjauck]

European sell off - German Dax and British Ftse100 down by over 3%.

[dr_]

European sell off - German Dax and British Ftse100 down by over 3%.

DOW Futures not looking good either...720pts down as i type....will be very interesting day ahead tomorrow....

[Beagle]

dr beat me to it above...

[Biscuit]

European sell off - German Dax and British Ftse100 down by over 3%.


"An interesting reading from the Ifo Institute in Germany: its widely followed business climate indicator has actually beaten expectations – a reminder, perhaps, that the much of the coronavirus’s financial effects so far are down to fear, uncertainty and doubt.
The Ifo’s business climate reading came in at 96.1 points, compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for a fall to 95.3. The institute is sticking to its first-quarter growth forecast of 0.2%. Ifo president Clemens Fuest said in a statement:


The German economy seems unaffected by developments surrounding the coronavirus." The Guardian

- so not all doom and gloom in Europe this morning.

[couta1]

DOW Futures not looking good either...720pts down as i type....will be very interesting day ahead tomorrow.... Exciting is the word I use although I only expect around a 1% fall on the NZX and ASX.

[dr_]

Exciting is the word I use although I only expect around a 1% fall on the NZX and ASX.

As usual some panic selling in first hour of opening on NZX and then recovering

[value_investor]

A little bit of rebalancing every now and then not the worst thing. Funny how quickly sentiment can change, in a week it could be back to full steam ahead. 700 point drop at the open for the dow, nasdaq is worse on a % equivalent.

I'm hoping for a bit of a lull period at least a quarter or two of sideways or slight downwards movement.

[Bjauck]

"An interesting reading from the Ifo Institute in Germany: its widely followed business climate indicator has actually beaten expectations – a reminder, perhaps, that the much of the coronavirus’s financial effects so far are down to fear, uncertainty and doubt.
The Ifo’s business climate reading came in at 96.1 points, compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for a fall to 95.3. The institute is sticking to its first-quarter growth forecast of 0.2%. Ifo president Clemens Fuest said in a statement:


The German economy seems unaffected by developments surrounding the coronavirus." The Guardian

- so not all doom and gloom in Europe this morning.



The quarantining of Lombard towns and the closing of Northern Italian schools is not helping the fear that it is spreading through Europe.

[peat]

A little bit of rebalancing every now and then not the worst thing. Funny how quickly sentiment can change, in a week it could be back to full steam ahead.

Its funny , while I agree sentiment changes quickly (in the big picture), I've also been amazed how slowly it turns (in the little picture).
There was time to get out re coronavirus.
I personally didn't act on it much coz I already was very underweight, and had been skimming off the tops already.
But today was quite nasty with most stocks down (apart from Chorus!!) I hate that share lol, it shouldn't be doing so well coz I bagged it hahah.

[bull....]

looking very ugly open

[bull....]

looks like its going to open on support , if doesnt hold im looking for around 3218 area
change bro open under support now still 3218 ?

[bull....]

just hit 3218 if doesnt hold this gonna get super ugly

[value_investor]

Still not bad in the grand scheme of things, you shouldn't be worrying about where stocks will be in 5 days, or 5 weeks or even 5 months unless you're a short term investor.

Even at the lowest level of the day, the NZX50 was still higher than the start of the year, still up 27% for past 12 months. Expect a recover with the futures up 200 points.

I'm interested to see what happens to people if stocks are down for a few months on end and what the reaction is. A lot more people are getting into index funds now then ever before.

[ratkin]

Still not bad in the grand scheme of things, you shouldn't be worrying about where stocks will be in 5 days, or 5 weeks or even 5 months unless you're a short term investor.

Even at the lowest level of the day, the NZX50 was still higher than the start of the year, still up 27% for past 12 months. Expect a recover with the futures up 200 points.

I'm interested to see what happens to people if stocks are down for a few months on end and what the reaction is. A lot more people are getting into index funds now then ever before.


The general public might finally wake up if they see their kiwi savers decline. NZers are generally a very insular bunch, with little interest in the outside world but nothing works them up more than their own money disappearing.

[Crypto Crude]

Had my kiwi saver in the lowest possible risk for a few years in anticipation of this event should have happened years ago...
DOW going to 20,000 imo...
Fully cashed up now...
All crypto tethered
:cool:
.^sc

[bull....]

Still not bad in the grand scheme of things, you shouldn't be worrying about where stocks will be in 5 days, or 5 weeks or even 5 months unless you're a short term investor.

Even at the lowest level of the day, the NZX50 was still higher than the start of the year, still up 27% for past 12 months. Expect a recover with the futures up 200 points.

I'm interested to see what happens to people if stocks are down for a few months on end and what the reaction is. A lot more people are getting into index funds now then ever before.

not as simple as you say. as a long term investor you can still lose terribly by buying at expensive levels. did you know even buffett has been selling apple in q4 on the way up even he sells when values are stretched.
The index funds have pushed indices up they will do the same on the way down. the only reason the markets rallied from november last year is fed qe so its built on quicksand now. they cant keep printing forever. buybacks cant keep happening forever.

[bull....]

Had my kiwi saver in the lowest possible risk for a few years in anticipation of this event should have happened years ago...
DOW going to 20,000 imo...
Fully cashed up now...
All crypto tethered
:cool:
.^sc

67% cash for me and unlikely to change going forward now markets are so stretched , lots of public froth around lol

[bull....]

I had been saying dow 30k as a target for nearly a couple years we got within 500pts to the target so close enough for me. probably pass it one day but fundamentals and technicals suggest to me thats the cycle for now if im wrong so be it.
Anyway the continued bond yield flirtation with inversion suggests recession is coming or at the least a sharp slowdown , the virus probably the catalyst as it spreads around the world.
money printing and buybacks will support the market but buybacks will likely end first as company profits are dented due to slowdown and the fed is on a continuing review on there qe till april at the moment.
If you think NZ is immune i laugh NZ market follows Wall st always has and always will.

[Leemsip]

Be interesting if etf's and kiwisaver funds become net sellers. Not sure if the general public pay enough attention or have the knowledge to change to cash or fixed interest.

There won't be many buyers in that case as active funds have been killed off by and large.

[yabster]

bollocks Ratkin- New Zealanders are one of the most outward looking people in the world in my experience- we are so isolated we have to be. Inward looking try USA or even Aus.

[bull....]

Be interesting if etf's and kiwisaver funds become net sellers. Not sure if the general public pay enough attention or have the knowledge to change to cash or fixed interest.

There won't be many buyers in that case as active funds have been killed off by and large.

kiwisavers funds follow there mandate and just keep investing to the mandate they have no emotion in regard to your returns. ETF invest based on fund flows so are forced to sell or buy based on funds flowing in and out of the funds. in a panic they are forced to sell no matter what the price as an extreme example. So yea etf are a big wild card for sure

[King1212]

Mayday...mayday..mayday...

[Balance]

Well, hope everyone is well-positioned.

Plenty enough warning about what is happening.

A man-made market downturn underway.

[King1212]

People are still in delusion...market is not at worst yet...people will buy in dips...wait till April n May..when the pandemic got worst n reports are in red....the lala land is kaput....

[Balance]

People are still in delusion...market is not at worst yet...people will buy in dips...wait till April n May..when the pandemic got worst n reports are in red....the lala land is kaput....

By then, the virus will be seen in perspective just like what is happening in China.

Meanwhile, this is expected - sharp sharp falls to take the froth out of the market. Very positive development in the markets.

Not time yet to buy the dips.

[King1212]

Not yet balance...at least end of year...what do u think?

[Bjauck]

The general public might finally wake up if they see their kiwi savers decline. NZers are generally a very insular bunch, with little interest in the outside world but nothing works them up more than their own money disappearing. I partly disagree insofar as NZ compares to other Anglophone countries. In my experience, people in NZ are less insular. For a start more than 25% of people were born overseas. I think Australia has a similar percentage of overseas born people too. The people of England, despite its previous membership of the EU, are much more inward-looking, especially outside London. It seemed to me that for many in the US, foreign news is what occurs outside their state, let alone outside the USA.

A small percentage of Kiwis may notice their KiwiSaver decline. A lot more will take notice if house prices decline.

[BlackPeter]

Not yet balance...at least end of year...what do u think?

Very hard to predict ... but I am pretty sure that a lot of reserve banks will soon flood the markets with cheap (or free) money - China will do that, Trump land of course (he wants to be re-elected, you know) and the ECB will no doubt follow.

I recon that any recovery will be sooner than that - and both equities and property prices will continue their relentless rise ... until the debt bubble bursts.

[bull....]

CDC in america issued warning to americans today to get themselves prepared for virus

U.S. health officials issued a strong warning about novel coronavirus (https://abcnews.go.com/alerts/coronavirus) on Tuesday -- that it's no longer a matter of if, but when it will spread in the U.S., and that Americans should prepare for a "significant disruption.

https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=69190968 (https://abcnews.go.com/International/white-house-requesting-125b-part-25b-plan-fight/story?id=69190968)

so markets wont improve until a cure is found or the virus is worldwide contained

[Bjauck]

Be interesting if etf's and kiwisaver funds become net sellers. Not sure if the general public pay enough attention or have the knowledge to change to cash or fixed interest.

There won't be many buyers in that case as active funds have been killed off by and large. I wonder what the cash funds will do if NZ gets negative rates. I switched my meagre KiwiSaver to Conservative Balanced from growth at end of last year.

[BlackPeter]

CDC in america issued warning to americans today to get themselves prepared for virus

U.S. health officials issued a strong warning about novel coronavirus (https://abcnews.go.com/alerts/coronavirus) on Tuesday -- that it's no longer a matter of if, but when it will spread in the U.S., and that Americans should prepare for a "significant disruption.

https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=69190968 (https://abcnews.go.com/International/white-house-requesting-125b-part-25b-plan-fight/story?id=69190968)

so markets wont improve until a cure is found or the virus is worldwide contained

Good news - not everybody is scaremongering:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/25/what-does-it-mean-if-coronavirus-is-declared-a-pandemic


The director of infectious diseases and immunology at the Menzies Health Institute in Queensland Prof Nigel McMillan, said it was concerning to see media reports over-sensationalising what a pandemic might mean.

“We don’t wish to induce panic food or petrol stockpiling, when for 95% of the population, this will be a mild cold,” he said.

[dobby41]

I wonder what the cash funds will do if NZ gets negative rates. I switched my meagre KiwiSaver to Conservative Balanced from growth at end of last year.

If it is meagre why bother?
Kept mine in highest growth I could find - a bit like a bet on the side since it is a minor part of my overall retirement strategy.

[King1212]

Love it...when US said the human trial in 6 weeks... yesterday Trump said the vaccine is not far away...them white house said...oh the president meant Ebola vaccine....what a bunch of bull crap...

Uncle Sam is trying to save the market...well we will see the market back to record again then

[Bjauck]

If it is meagre why bother?
Kept mine in highest growth I could find - a bit like a bet on the side since it is a minor part of my overall retirement strategy. Because I review all my investments, great and small. It was the first change in allocation since 2009.

[bull....]

ranges on us markets markets are insane this week just like the bags under my eyes at the moment lol watching 3000 sp500 now around the level of oct/nov last year when the latest fed induced artificial rally started. keep eye on 10yr bonds breaking decisively below long term support will tank stockmarket in my opinion. funny how trump wants to censor info on virus too

[Joshuatree]

And some thought they were buying into a relief rally in the USA mkts last nite, such volaitility in one day , DOW up 461 then ends in the red -64 atm and down 2,000 points overall, 5th straight day of losses, down 7% this week.. Green stocks were Apple, Pfizer, 3 M,Microsoft. Laggards Walt disney, Exxon, Mobil, DOW.(source CNBC)

What sorta trading were you doing in the night Bull?

[jonu]

And some thought they were buying into a relief rally in the USA mkts last nite, such volaitility in one day , DOW up 461 then ends in the red.5th down day and now down 2,000 points, 5th straight day of losses, down 7% this week.. Green stocks were Apple, Pfizer, 3 M,Microsoft. Laggards Walt disney, Exxon, Mobil, DOW.(source CNBC)

What sorta trading were you doing in the night Bull?

Still open aint it JT? Down only 0.2% as we speak

[Joshuatree]

yep just edited it but you were too quick;)

[bull....]

And some thought they were buying into a relief rally in the USA mkts last nite, such volaitility in one day , DOW up 461 then ends in the red -64 atm and down 2,000 points overall, 5th straight day of losses, down 7% this week.. Green stocks were Apple, Pfizer, 3 M,Microsoft. Laggards Walt disney, Exxon, Mobil, DOW.(source CNBC)

What sorta trading were you doing in the night Bull?

i trade the us indexes mainly but sometimes commodities and forex

[bull....]

us futures looking pretty bad at the moment >1% falls forecast , europe looks even worse

[BlackPeter]

Strong Bear waking up and smashed already through the MA 100 ... up to higher highs!

11066

.... just look at this volume ...

[bull....]

Strong Bear waking up and smashed already through the MA 100 ... up to higher highs!

11066

.... just look at this volume ...

smart move having some protection at the moment esp with overvalued stock markets and 10 yr looking like breaking down tonight it could be very ugly tomorrow

[Biscuit]

10m ago08:31 (https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/feb/27/stock-markets-plunge-ftse-100-dow-correction-trump-coronavirus-investors-business-live?page=with:block-5e577d098f086a28115b3797#block-5e577d098f086a28115b3797)The European markets are a sickly sea of red this morning. - The Guardian




Reminds me of the good old days in 2008/2009

[bull....]

see of red first US case virus confirmed us markets could fall 20 - 30 % easliy i reckon if virus spreads in US

[King1212]

I really hope people heard all our argument here n not buy during the last couple days dips, hoping for market to bounce back. The market has not seen the worst yet..this is just a begining.

[bull....]

I really hope people heard all our argument here n not buy during the last couple days dips, hoping for market to bounce back. The market has not seen the worst yet..this is just a begining.

i agree worst maybe still to come if virus keeps spreading becomes a supply side shock , monetary policy not really good for that. rate cuts dont make you want to fly or go out to dinner. only be more juice for the drug induced market to rally more. so i hope they dont cut rates everywhere again to feed the bubble.

anyway we bounced of the around 3000 level sp 500 we mentioned couple days ago to watch so nice bounce if it only ultimately means a temporary bounce.

[Crypto Crude]

Is the US debt bubble about to pop... geeze it's at bubonical plague levels... debt to wealth ratio $1400 for every $1 of wealth lol...
Debt per citizen $72,326 ... debt per tax payer $188,957... us national debt 23.3 trillion dollars...
Check out the numbers here

https://www.usdebtclock.org

:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

The 2008 global financial crisis was bailed out by stimulus and corporate bailouts...
Is there any money left to do it again?
:cool:
.^sc

[bull....]

The 2008 global financial crisis was bailed out by stimulus and corporate bailouts...
Is there any money left to do it again?
:cool:
.^sc

stimulus wont do anything to fight virus

[King1212]

stimulus wont do anything to fight virus

Pandemic virus will disappearing however the impact to economy will remain and recovery will take time.

Meanwhile, post pandemic will change people behavior of traveling. People will be more careful.

Definitely... recovery will take time. So expecting mid year 2020 and Feb 2021 financial reporting seasons not too good in opinion.

[bull....]

Pandemic virus will disappearing however the impact to economy will remain and recovery will take time.

Meanwhile, post pandemic will change people behavior of traveling. People will be more careful.

Definitely... recovery will take time. So expecting mid year 2020 and Feb 2021 financial reporting seasons not too good in opinion.


heres a example of bad senario from robobank in the netherlands

The question is whether the current epidemic can leave a permanent mark on the Chinese economy or, if it spreads further, the global economy. Permanent economic damage often occurs in case of a supply-side shock in the economy. This means supply-side factors, i.e. capital, labor and technology, are permanently affected by drastic events, such as an armed war, natural disasters, financial crises or a global epidemic or pandemic. At this point, the corona outbreak is nowhere near a pandemic and such a pandemic should be considered as a worst case scenario. But under such a scenario, there is a high risk of permanent economic damage. Pandemics in the past, such as the Plague in the mid-14th century or the Spanish flu in 1918-1920, illustrate how these events can leave economies crippled. Due to the Spanish flu, for instance, the US working-age population shrank by half a million people over the course of one year (Figure 6).

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2020/january/economic-implications-of-the-coronavirus/

so rate cuts wont help

[dobby41]

The 2008 global financial crisis was bailed out by stimulus and corporate bailouts...
Is there any money left to do it again?


Don't they just print more - so there will always be money to do it again.
Not that that's a good thing but ...

[Bjauck]

....Due to the Spanish flu, for instance, the US working-age population shrank by half a million people over the course of one year (Figure 6).

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2020/january/economic-implications-of-the-coronavirus/

so rate cuts wont help In such a case then investment that increased the productivity of the labour force would be important. NZ has had poor productivity growth, so I would have thought policies aimed at diverting NZ's over-investment in inflated residential land towards business capital and research and development would have beneficial consequences.

Productivity - The Treasury New Zealandhttps://treasury.govt.nz › ... › The New Zealand economy (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi9nIqdw_LnAhVTOSsKHXILBm4QFjAIegQIDRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftreasury.govt.nz%2Finformation-and-services%2Fnz-economy%2Fproductivity&usg=AOvVaw3MOf5BDVyVuuLuDgjBot-K)

[bull....]

In such a case then investment that increased the productivity of the labour force would be important. NZ has had poor productivity growth, so I would have thought policies aimed at diverting NZ's over-investment in inflated residential land towards business capital and research and development would have beneficial consequences.

Productivity - The Treasury New Zealandhttps://treasury.govt.nz › ... › The New Zealand economy (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi9nIqdw_LnAhVTOSsKHXILBm4QFjAIegQIDRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftreasury.govt.nz%2Finformation-and-services%2Fnz-economy%2Fproductivity&usg=AOvVaw3MOf5BDVyVuuLuDgjBot-K)

might actually speed up the technological change in the world to robotics etc. NZ i give up sometimes on there dumbed down policies

[bull....]

US markets heading to lows again . this is bad news going forward. sp 500 broke 3000

[causecelebre]

Dow closed > 4.4% down. Almost 1200

[Joshuatree]

DOW finished re 1194 points down today.!!

[bull....]

bubble deflating , makes NZ bubble share market severely over inflated now.

Put it in context the fed induced bubble from november last year has been retraced now on sp500 , it still hasnt factored in the virus economic outcome yet

[Mickey]

DOW finished re 1194 points down today.!!

It sure is going to be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow in the US. Pension funds re-balance tomorrow and hedge funds may be forced to sell down as well as further sell-off could come from those who don't want to go into the weekend long given the uncertainty of what might develop over the weekend. There's always the possibility of a big upswing as well, which we've seen before but with the market being 10% down over the week - it is definitely in correction. Tomorrow is going to be a telling day....

[peat]

looks like we're gonna need a bigger boat !

[bull....]

It sure is going to be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow in the US. Pension funds re-balance tomorrow and hedge funds may be forced to sell down as well as further sell-off could come from those who don't want to go into the weekend long given the uncertainty of what might develop over the weekend. There's always the possibility of a big upswing as well, which we've seen before but with the market being 10% down over the week - it is definitely in correction. Tomorrow is going to be a telling day....

fridays never that good for a bounce like you say who wants to be long stocks over the weekend in this climate. futures already showing >1% fall tobnight already

[Blue Horseshoe]

looks like we're gonna need a bigger boat !

What are we going to call it Titanic 2

[bull....]

futures are looking very ugly in europe at the moment > 3% - 4% falls forecast

getting worse by the minute now 5%

[peat]

What are we going to call it Titanic 2


wrong movie
https://media.giphy.com/media/g2MzsYEkf8UsE/giphy.gif

[bull....]

basically just given back the fed induced rally from october thats all. back in the giant trading range where the market was originally deciding about growth which was slowing. difference is now virus which i believe isnt priced in yet at all. technically we should break the range to the downside

[Crypto Crude]

The whole sharemarket is pumped up with debt and money that we don't even have... consumer and government spending around the world is juiced up with money that we don't even have...
The greatest period of sharemarket returns the world has ever seen is fake growth...
All it needed was a trigger... and boom...
gg...
:cool:
.^sc

[bull....]

gold and oil are getting smashed , stock market down 2000 tonight? nasdaq well overvalued

[bull....]

watch the last hour esp could get pummelled

[Bjauck]

The whole sharemarket is pumped up with debt and money that we don't even have... consumer and government spending around the world is juiced up with money that we don't even have...
The greatest period of sharemarket returns the world has ever seen is fake growth...
All it needed was a trigger... and boom...
gg...
:cool:
.^sc NZ residential property is even worse - land pumped up to huge multiples of incomes.

[couta1]

I'm looking forward to Monday particularly in regard to the A2 price movement, on the one hand you've got the Lemming effect and on the other the big jump in valuations from all the brokers so a battle of opposing forces, 94c price movement yesterday on the NZX shows the kiwis are being more negative than the Aussies.

[kiora]

From Hoop 2012
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets&p=362384#post362384

[Balance]

I'm looking forward to Monday particularly in regard to the A2 price movement, on the one hand you've got the Lemming effect and on the other the big jump in valuations from all the brokers so a battle of opposing forces, 94c price movement yesterday on the NZX shows the kiwis are being more negative than the Aussies.

A global contraction of valuation multiples underway.

[couta1]

A global contraction of valuation multiples underway. This virus thingy is going to accelerate A2 sales and once the drag of the handbrake is removed, it will fly, there will always be outlier stocks in any given situation.

[bull....]

A global contraction of valuation multiples underway.

yep virus effects on business will play out over months , so the market will adjust as well as info flows up or down. ones things for certain valuations were stretched to start with

[couta1]

yep virus effects on business will play out over months , so the market will adjust as well as info flows up or down. ones things for certain valuations were stretched to start with Some were stretched and some weren't, dont put all stocks in the same box.

[bull....]

the desparation is showing , all people calling for the fed to save the day with a rate cut. a rate cut doesnt help with a virus

[Balance]

the desparation is showing , all people calling for the fed to save the day with a rate cut. a rate cut doesnt help with a virus

It will as people will not feel so despondent & depressed - helps boost immunity and reduce impact of virus.

[bull....]

It will as people will not feel so despondent & depressed - helps boost immunity and reduce impact of virus.

really if the RBNZ cuts would it make you want to go out to dinner or a concert etc if say spread was more widespread in NZ

[Balance]

really if the RBNZ cuts would it make you want to go out to dinner or a concert etc if say spread was more widespread in NZ

Just saying.

[BlackPeter]

Just have to love this Bear:

11069

... it smashed yesterday through the MA 200 and is now in clear uptrend territory!

[Cool Bear]

Just have to love this Bear:

11069

... it smashed yesterday through the MA 200 and is now in clear uptrend territory!

If not for that bear (BBOZ) my total share portfolio losses will be twice as much last week!! Was a good hedge indeed.

[JBmurc]

NZ residential property is even worse - land pumped up to huge multiples of incomes.

Yes with massive amounts of debt to equity(that could well erode) very few kiwis will have debt invested in the equity markets

[Bjauck]

Yes with massive amounts of debt to equity(that could well erode) very few kiwis will have debt invested in the equity markets True.There may be some FOMO investors who mortgaged their houses (or added to their mortgages) to invest in the increasing stock market, but not many would be able to borrow using their share investments as collateral.

Recent house purchasers can get stuck with negative equity if/when there is a serious retreat in prices. It has happened in other countries. In NZ that would be even more serious than in many other countries as such a great proportion of NZ household wealth is in residential property. The knock on effect to the NZ economy in general would be magnified too.

NZ has so many of its eggs in investment in the residential housing basket.

[bull....]

looks like end of month pension buying was the only reason for the late surge in US indices on friday. even after market futures were showing a near 300 pt rise for monday open but looks like all that has changed following the first confirmed death of an american from corona virus. now showing over a 300 pt decline monday at open this stage. this fits in with the technicals which are showing a consolidation at the lows hrly trading friday. apparantly trump is even considering border closure with mexico and is ratching up pressure on the fed to save the day of course which would only be a temporary reprieve in the scheme of the over inflated markets anyway. I think if the fed does nothing ( cause a fed rate cut not really going to do much at this stage you can tell that by the reaction of the market to powell comments on friday market went down after them) it actually gives them the chance to reset the narrative of everyone thinking the fed there to save the day for the market that is. then they can go back to do what they supposed to do demand side support.
Nasdaq way overvalued still sp500 and dow back in the giant trading ranges from before fed induced repo rally so maybe they find support back at the bottom of those ranges. asx still overvalued considering economics nz severley overvalued not reflecting any of the economics to come.

[couta1]

I'm feeling a little excited about black monday, let's hope it lives upto its name tomorrow.

[ratkin]

ASB must be busy again. I had this problem too last Monday when was selling up. It can be very frustrating, when all you want to do is get out quick



Service Disruption – Trade Confirmations

We are currently experiencing technical difficulties with our customers receiving trade confirmations. There may also be delays in your orders reaching the market. Please call us on 0800 272 732 option 2 if you require any assistance with placing an order. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause.

[couta1]

ASB must be busy again. I had this problem too last Monday when was selling up. It can be very frustrating, when all you want to do is get out quick



Service Disruption – Trade Confirmations

We are currently experiencing technical difficulties with our customers receiving trade confirmations. There may also be delays in your orders reaching the market. Please call us on 0800 272 732 option 2 if you require any assistance with placing an order. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause.

Lol you try dealing with thousands of Lemmings all at once.

[bull....]

Lol you try dealing with thousands of Lemmings all at once.

they might end up being wise lemmings in hindsight , remember NZX outperformed on way up hence way more overvalued. anyway 45 mins to go till futures get started on overseas markets

[causecelebre]

ASB must be busy again. I had this problem too last Monday when was selling up. It can be very frustrating, when all you want to do is get out quick



Service Disruption – Trade Confirmations

We are currently experiencing technical difficulties with our customers receiving trade confirmations. There may also be delays in your orders reaching the market. Please call us on 0800 272 732 option 2 if you require any assistance with placing an order. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause.



Comsec issued a statement last week apologising for the cock up. Stating higher than expected volumes the cause. And here I thought only Bitmex did such things ;)

[ratkin]

Seems to be a bit of nibbling going on, AIA up 5% from its daily low. (Back down again now)

tonight will be interesting, everyone expecting US market to be hammered, but maybe we will be in for a surprise.

[couta1]

they might end up being wise lemmings in hindsight , remember NZX outperformed on way up hence way more overvalued. anyway 45 mins to go till futures get started on overseas markets Wisedom comes from careful considered thought not panic.

[peat]

Seems to be a bit of nibbling going on, AIA up 5% from its daily low. (Back down again now)

tonight will be interesting, everyone expecting US market to be hammered, but maybe we will be in for a surprise.

I'm not really seeing the nibbling myself I was just thinking ,,,nope , sellers are overwhelming... though I did have the tiniest of nibbles

however technically Fridays SP500 did do a daily hammer. (bullish)

[peat]

that said I do think the bears growl is a lot louder than I had expected
so not really buying yet. apart from that nibble with pocket money in the CFD account.

[bull....]

looks like the nibblers maybe entering for the bounce ?

[peat]

looks like the nibblers maybe entering for the bounce ?
agree , now. but dead cats and all!

[bull....]

agree , now. but dead cats and all!

nimble for sure

[dr_]

DOW Future is looking good 570pts+ up...

[King1212]

Ready to bounce people!

[couta1]

Ready to bounce people! Let the good times roll.

[bull....]

wouldnt get too excited one day does not make a trend. asx is showing a 1% fall nearly for today so looks like no bounce there

[Leftfield]

wouldnt get too excited one day does not make a trend. asx is showing a 1% fall nearly for today so looks like no bounce there

Amazing Bull.....you say ASX down 1% 'for today' when it hasn't even opened yet!!??? Very clever.

[bull....]

Amazing Bull.....you say ASX down 1% 'for today' when it hasn't even opened yet!!??? Very clever.

thats the implied open from futures markets and it changes all the time that was at the time of writing

[couta1]

thats the implied open from futures markets and it changes all the time that was at the time of writing Futures can be as accurate as crystal ball gazing oftentimes.

[bull....]

Futures can be as accurate as crystal ball gazing oftentimes.

i find them pretty reliable , i used to trade the asx spi once that will get your nerves running lol anyway like i was saying futures jump around all the time nearly back to flat now

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stock-short-sellers-notch-191229817.html

Short coverings to lock in the multi-billion dollars gains - one reason for the rebound.

[bull....]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stock-short-sellers-notch-191229817.html

Short coverings to lock in the multi-billion dollars gains - one reason for the rebound.

and everyone thinking all the central banks will slash rates again save the day.

[bull....]

asx positive now

[Balance]

and everyone thinking all the central banks will slash rates again save the day.

From morning briefing - "expectations of widespread synchronised monetary and fiscal stimulus have helped steady financial market sentiment overnight. G7 finance ministers and central bankers are meeting tonight to coordinate the response, and G7 health ministers are doing the same."

[peat]

if you are hurting today would be the day to lighten up

[Hoop]

After the mauling comes a NZX50 3.5% boing....

https://imgc.allpostersimages.com/img/print/u-g-PGQB0N0.jpg?w=550&h=550&p=0

[bull....]

g7 meeting tomorrow so if any central bank action was happening might be around that

[bull....]

Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat coronavirus slowdown


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-a-percentage-point-to-combat-coronavirus-slowdown.html

temporary juice but doesnt really fix supply chains or people going out. expect NZ to follow. US 10yr still plunging and gold soaring unusal moves on the news must be on recession fears.

yesterdays stock market moves probably anticipated the move

[bull....]

looks like markets are giving back a lot of yesterdays gains at this stage. US 10yr on the verge of going under 1% prob send stocks sharply lower soon

updated 10 yr just broke below 1% pricing in the worst obviously. forward fed rate cuts are being priced in for negative rates in the US later this yr

[Oberon]

I was a bit suspect of the bullish exuberance yesterday ... :sleep:

[couta1]

Looks like I will be buying back all those A2 milk bottles I dispatched yesterday at a discounted price.:D

[bull....]

I was a bit suspect of the bullish exuberance yesterday ... :sleep:

buy the dip people will get a haircut , wont work anymore. people need to realise this a supply shock and you take a lot of risk owning stocks at elevated levels when you dont know how the virus will impact earnings going forward. takes time to wash through as all the earnings downgrades come

[couta1]

buy the dip people will get a haircut , wont work anymore. people need to realise this a supply shock and you take a lot of risk owning stocks at elevated levels when you dont know how the virus will impact earnings going forward. takes time to wash through as all the earnings downgrades come You can make money in all market conditions, volatility will continue along with the wild oscillations.

[Crypto Crude]

Black monday Tuesday wednesday thursday friday...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

You can make money in all market conditions, volatility will continue along with the wild oscillations.

How do you propose doing that assuming going long?
:cool:
.^sc

[dobby41]

How is a rate cut going to do anything when people are too scared to borrow?
Borrow to expand your business - I can't see many doing that.
Most people won't act counter-cyclical.

[couta1]

How do you propose doing that assuming going long?
:cool:
.^sc I'm only long in HLG and PAZ but I dont short anything either only trade.

[Ggcc]

Almost wish I was a trader with these huge spikes

[couta1]

Almost wish I was a trader with these huge spikes Try it and you'll never go back.:D

[Jerry]

How is a rate cut going to do anything when people are too scared to borrow?
Borrow to expand your business - I can't see many doing that.
Most people won't act counter-cyclical.

Right! If the problem is no trade because people aren't at work in factories, on the docks or going out spending money, I don't see how cutting already ridiculously low interest rates can help.

[couta1]

Another Teddy bear day incoming.

[bull....]

Another Teddy bear day incoming.

lol the powers to be never want the market to fall , mortgage the house guaranteed money lol

[Sideshow Bob]

lol the powers to be never want the market to fall , mortgage the house guaranteed money lol

TRUMP doesn't want the market to fall......deny, deny, deny.....

[bull....]

TRUMP doesn't want the market to fall......deny, deny, deny.....

lol so true , keep the printing presses rolling

[Peitro]

TRUMP doesn't want the market to fall......deny, deny, deny.....

Trump is no rocket surgeon, clueless.

“You take a solid flu vaccine – you don’t think that would have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQfaSJ3cSIs

[bull....]

buddy volatility is extreme i will be scaling back my work hours in the near future to things sort out , working too many hours not good for my immune system and health more important priorities now. think you know where its going anyway

[bull....]

market broken to downside from bearish wedge , 10yr plummeting gold roaring , real recession fears being priced in except the equity market. fed cut again soon

[couta1]

Well hello bargain Friday, the whipsaw is back.

[bull....]

Well hello bargain Friday, the whipsaw is back.

the fed threw 100 billion at broker dealers on tuesday in repo market action so they trying hard to prop market

[cymonger]

Well hello bargain Friday, the whipsaw is back.


Amen. Looking for some bargains today. Hoping for a dollar or more drop in ATM, and a dip in FPH. But lately the real fun has been with BLT. 15% up yesterday. Probably come crashing back down today. Rinse. Repeat.

[peat]

the fed threw 100 billion at broker dealers on tuesday in repo market action so they trying hard to prop market

don't fight the Fed.

[BlackPeter]

don't fight the Fed.

True, this is what they say, but isn't this what markets do at the moment?

Even the Fed might run out of ammunition ...

[peat]

True, this is what they say, but isn't this what markets do at the moment?

Even the Fed might run out of ammunition ...

the weird thing about the Fed is they create their own ammo, endlessly, as much as they want. They may eventually freak the world out by the size of their balance sheet but there's not really much stopping them

[BlackPeter]

the weird thing about the Fed is they create their own ammo, endlessly, as much as they want. They may eventually freak the world out by the size of their balance sheet but there's not really much stopping them

Well, yes, they can create unlimited new money, but if they overdo it they might not be able anymore to control what this money is worth. Unlimited ammunition, but the impact of this ammunition might dwindle.

[couta1]

The dow was green an hour or so ago but its since turned sharply negative, could be a black monday incoming, yep ASX and NZX now falling.

[bull....]

Its pretty obvious the world going into recession now. the US 10 yr is absolutely plummeting .73% today , oil is testing big lows at $42 if that breaks it test lows of 28$ from 2016 and stock markets are all down big again. be expecting a test of recent lows next week maybe or even maybe today lol such is we dont really know with any certainty where it all end.

take time for the bear to play out average is a decline of 30% but most bears have fallen between 20 - 60% and have an average duration of 14 mths and 2yrs odd after to recover. remember markets were at elevated levels anyway to start with. One things certain now i dont think its going to be a v bottom.
So in a bear company profits will all start being downgraded next reporting season if not before and some companies will go bust and some companies dividends will decline but all companies share prices will decline. the virus is uncertain there is no quick recovery at this point in time

we pinned the top at 30k for dow for this cycle pretty well , early targets on the downside suggest still 10% ? before bear rally but need more data yet to confirm

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for the overnite update.So thankful of a friend who made me sit up,take notice and get out of my bl'ase she'll be right attitude which helped make it easier pulling the pin and selling down on the 4th feb.Im guessing a wide U shaped recovery but just dont know how this contagion will play out atp.Good luck all.Batten down the hatches.

[Beagle]

I'm picking an L shaped recovery. Whatever modest high conviction long positions I have are somewhat offset by other high conviction short positions so I have almost zero net position in the market, (less than 1% portfolio position), but I could still profit if my stock picking is good.

I got out mostly in very early February 2020 too. It feels very weird having very little in the way of commercial interests in the market but it has been very good for my blood pressure ! Stocking up the larder and battening down the hatches...

[janner]

Beagle, how does the shorting work? How you doing this and what are the parameters and things to watch out for?

As good a place as any to learn..

Then ask here for what you do not understand.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp

[janner]

No recommendations... Learn to walk first..

[janner]

I think you have may misunderstood my investing experience in stocks. I have deep experience over many years and done very well out of it. I have always been invested long to date. I would not see shorting as a big part of my investing future but can see a role for it in a few specific situations.

No matter what your skills are in running jumping or standing still.

I recommend learning the skills of a new sport first before entering the arena. Ends.

[Crypto Crude]

Interested to hear Beagles thoughts first....
:t_up:
.^sc

[stoploss]

Thanks. Useful. Any recommendations on brokers that facilitate short selling on NZX stocks?

Hi , as previously posted I use a CFD via CMC. Things to watch for , you are charged a holding cost , you are really short an instrument not the actual share .I don’t do anything too large , so if it takes a while to come to fruition I have enough margin to stay in the trade .( as long as I think I have it right)
I might trade shares each week , but might only short something 3 times a year when I have a strong feeling on something .
So in the past 12 months shorted AUD/USD as they were cutting rates and also due to economic effects of the fires . Also shorted NZD/USD as Aussie was cutting rates thought we would follow . Currently short AIR NZ, I don’t like to profit from other people’s misery . However possibly going to lose a considerable amount of money on a long term family trip later this year if we decide not to travel . So I see this as a hedge . Although booked way before the virus outbreak not sure if insurance will cover .

[Aaron]

the weird thing about the Fed is they create their own ammo, endlessly, as much as they want. They may eventually freak the world out by the size of their balance sheet but there's not really much stopping them

That's my concern, is that we have a currency crisis (a loss of faith in the idea) before assets become affordable with a decent yield. A loss of faith would spread pretty quick and suddenly money in the bank is worthless, or doesn't buy much.

Anyone in cash over the last few years has been on a hiding to nothing here's hoping it doesn't get printed into meaninglessness.

[Joshuatree]

Im re 22% up on BBOZ bear trading fund on the ASX atp . Im not disciplined enough or have the memory to do shorting myself.

[Beagle]

Some shorting options I am aware of, there are certain to be others I'm not aware of !
Forsyth Barr have a service through leveraged equities for short selling.
https://www.leveragedequities.co.nz/Documents/LEVEQ0738-ShortsBrochreWeb.aspx
CMC markets is another way to do it on individual stocks
BBOZ on the ASX for shorting the Australian market, note the leverage involved is about 2.5 - 2.75 times, from memory, so a $100,000 position gives about $275,000 Australian market short. Correlation between their market and ours may not be that good at times due to their heavy exposure to base metals, oil and gas.
Or you can do you own borrowing shares contract from someone who is determined to hold a long position in the same shares. (Obviously you need to know someone who owns the required number of shares and both be in a position where you are happy to enter into such a contract, i.e. current holder needs to feel they are committed to their long position).

[bull....]

i use ig markets cfd's for shorting and td ameritrade for futures and options and only use technical analysis when considering shorting

[couta1]

No shorting for me, cant say I'm endeared to the concept, ive seen too much manipulation by the big game players over time. PS-The US markets reversed some of their early losses and didnt finish up as ugly as I was hoping, still should be a lighter shade of black monday though.

[bull....]

horrific futures just open oil fall 26% to 31 dollar us indexes show 4.5% fall for tonight. asx 4% fall for today need to realize vix says a big fall is going to happen sometime

[blobbles]

Looks like it's all turning to custard. How far will the NZX fall over the next week? Guesses? Somebody run a poll!

[bull....]

Looks like it's all turning to custard. How far will the NZX fall over the next week? Guesses? Somebody run a poll!

hate to say it but it be on is a crash going to happen

[winner69]

hate to say it but it be on is a crash going to happen

When sentiment really turns sour huge PE contraction .....on top of lower earnings

NZX at 5000 I reckon and ^SPX at 1400

Then many years to get back to today’s levels ..if ever

Happened before

[bull....]

people forget there history. In 1987 the crash followed a big oil price crash due to opec disputes. hello we have just today had a big oil price crash because of opec disputes

[Joshuatree]

Crude 9.44% down to $41.56 Brent -8.7% atm ! saudis and russians disagree re cuts so a free for all fall.

[blobbles]

Down almost 1.5% coming towards midday... end of day down by 3%? If we have that for a few days, we are well into bear territory if you include last couple of weeks right?

5000 seems a bit low for me, I reckon we will bottom out around 7000, a 40% decline... depends if our banking system holds up though. It might not given their ridiculous amounts of interest only loans (which they may be holding the bag for, so government bail out) on an overvalued residential housing market. If banks go down... it's all on.

[blackcap]

Australian market called down 5% on my screens. That is a huge drop if it eventuates.

[bull....]

wont surprise me a 2000+ pt fall on the dow tonight

[Blue Horseshoe]

Gold going out the door quicker than toilet rolls.

[Joshuatree]

Crude 9.44% down to $41.56 Brent -8.7% atm ! saudis and russians disagree re cuts so a free for all fall.

Latest on CNBC oil down 20%!!!!:scared:
Aus looks to open 4% down
Gold $1700

[stoploss]

Gold going out the door quicker than toilet rolls.

That's saying something :)

[bull....]

oil stocks asx crashing 20+% wonder how many of them will survive at 30$ oil

[Joshuatree]

You're a bit slow today Bull, up all night again:). The thing with Oil is the supply demand drop hasn't actually happened yet so $20 oil is being suggested.Things like more countries doing lockdowns like italy is now. What Oil price based stocks are there out there, id be looking at them a bit down the track.

[bull....]

You're a bit slow today Bull, up all night again:). The thing with Oil is the supply demand drop hasn't actually happened yet so $20 oil is being suggested.Things like more countries doing lockdowns like italy is now. What Oil price based stocks are there out there, id be looking at them a bit down the track.

plenty of late nights to come this week lol. santos for example have a break even oil price of 29$ per barrel so companies with higher break evens will really struggle to repay debt in time

[peat]

oil stocks asx crashing 20+% wonder how many of them will survive at 30$ oil

woodside down 22% !! BHP down 8% !

Our government knew to get out of carbon lol

[blackcap]

woodside down 22% !! BHP down 8% !

Our government knew to get out of carbon lol

I purchased some WPL today. Just a nibble but will be going larger if the fall continues.

[bull....]

I purchased some WPL today. Just a nibble but will be going larger if the fall continues.

wpl you would think would be able to survive the storm the best i guess. nibble for bounce or long term?

[blackcap]

wpl you would think would be able to survive the storm the best i guess. nibble for bounce or long term?

Nibble for long term (it has been on my radar for a bit) IF it goes a lot further will go larger for bounce.

[DJMustard]

I've written about the Coronavirus here and how severe it is compared to the flu and also the impact it may have on the economy, https://thereliablenarrator.org/the-coronavirus-and-the-economy/

Mods, please let me know if this inappropriate. Cheers!

[bull....]

sp500 futures just gone on a trading halt due to excessive declines

[waterboy]

asx dwn 5% and futures not looking good, getting irrational now, unfortunately i think short term outlook for markets is not good. Media needs to bring this fear back under control

[bull....]

asx dwn 5% and futures not looking good, getting irrational now, unfortunately i think short term outlook for markets is not good. Media needs to bring this fear back under control

i dont think its irrational yet wait for the 10+% falls. the market is just re-rating to price in the new world outlook at this stage from very elevated levels of irrational greed

[bull....]

US 10yr around .54% now pricing in 0% rates coming and global recession. Oil big plunge is very concerning as US banks have billions and billions in derivatives and loans linked to shale oil and at 30$ shale companies make no money wont be able to refinance. big risk going forward. might be like your gfc housing derivative crash.

saudi arabia has started a war

[Jay]

Petrol prices do not seen to be following the oil price downwards - no surpirises!

[BlackPeter]

Petrol prices do not seen to be following the oil price downwards - no surpirises!

Which must be good for Z & Co .. they can cream the margins all the way to the bank ...

[bull....]

Which must be good for Z & Co .. they can cream the margins all the way to the bank ...

lol must be why there price is up. rorting consumers massively

[Aaron]

sp500 futures just gone on a trading halt due to excessive declines

Do they ever go into a trading halt due to excessive increases? It seems odd in a free market.

[bull....]

Do they ever go into a trading halt due to excessive increases? It seems odd in a free market.

lol need to stem the rush to the exit , wonder if the plunge protection team will be in action tonight to ensure things are smooth. think they were in action on friday caused the big bounce at the close

[Mr Slothbear]

OCR cut today for sure

The experts who do the the RB survey of expectations are a weird lot. They expect OCR cuts now and next year and still don't expect a rebound in inflation or growth.

Really hope not.



This is not a situation for monetary policy easing. Strong fiscal stimulus is really much more whats needed.

[Crypto Crude]

China has had a 20% drop of exports which makes up 20% of GDP...
Expecting negative growth for the first time since the 1970s...
Gona be a deep depression here... gona get heaps worse...
But markets will eventually come back stronger than ever...
:cool:
.^sc

[winner69]

When sentiment really turns sour huge PE contraction .....on top of lower earnings

NZX at 5000 I reckon and ^SPX at 1400

Then many years to get back to today’s levels ..if ever

Happened before

Don’t think we’ll get there today lol ...but heading to these levels

[blobbles]

Do they ever go into a trading halt due to excessive increases? It seems odd in a free market.

Which is another way they have legislated for a bull market. It's insane that they can close markets when they drop, but not when they increase (following China's lead)

[stoploss]

Which is another way they have legislated for a bull market. It's insane that they can close markets when they drop, but not when they increase (following China's lead)

CFD market still trading currently 24740 - 1058 - 4.1 %
( this is a CFD to the cash index)

[peat]

sp500 futures just gone on a trading halt due to excessive declines

still trading from what I can see

[bull....]

bnz just come out forecast recession for NZ and treasurer in AUS saying same just while ago

[bull....]

still trading from what I can see

trading halt or i should have said pause just for limited time make people calm down. the real action will be in the early hours tomorrow nz time

[Blue Horseshoe]

Just to add fuel to the fire, North Korea has fired at least one unidentified projectile, the South Korean military said.

[causecelebre]

Do they ever go into a trading halt due to excessive increases? It seems odd in a free market.

They have limit up rules as well I thought

[BlackPeter]

Just to add fuel to the fire, North Korea has fired at least one unidentified projectile, the South Korean military said.

Did they desinfect the projectile? Given it is coming from a strongly (though secretly) infected country, it is probably full with corona virus ... :p;

[Blue Horseshoe]

Did they desinfect the projectile? Given it is coming from a strongly (though secretly) infected country, it is probably full with corona virus ... :p;
It's all good, nothing gets in and nothing gets out of North Korea even Corona virus.

[Crypto Crude]

You heard it here first...

This won't be a recession, this will be a depression
:cool:
.^sc

[Beagle]

You heard it here first...

This won't be a recession, this will be a depression
:cool:
.^sc

You could be right if they don't find a vaccine for this virus before early 2021.
Depression defined as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_(economics)

[bull....]

asx down 6% now

[bull....]

currency markets are showing stress , look at yen