Black Monday

[Balance]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3024494/beijing-casts-doubt-state-trade-talks-after-donald-trump-says

Well, the serial liar has been well and truly caught this time round so expect a down day tomorrow for US markets.

Looks like China is happy to call his bluff and bluster 'negotiating' tactics which unfortunately means no market stability or bottoming out until Trump is out of office.

China will ride this shyster out as it will not allow a repeat of the 100 years of humiliation by the West & Japan. Can Americans do without their cheap China consumer goods, funded by borrowings and produced by the sweat and toil of other people?

Take 1 : "Markets jumped when Trump said on Monday that China called “our top people” – the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin – on Sunday evening to “get back to the table” to negotiate to resolve the two countries’ year-long trade war"

Take 2 : "But there has since been no sign of progress on that front and the Chinese foreign ministry again said on Tuesday that it was not aware of the phone calls over the weekend. “I have not heard of that,” foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said when asked about the call."

Take 3 : "Dow down 5% tomorrow?"


.

[Balance]

Well, should have added a decimal to the 5% for Dow to be down - it's 0.5% with arguably worse to come as China prepares for the worse case scenario on the trade war with Trump/US.

Rather telling that China is not responding any further (as it did before) to the bluff and bluster negotiating tactics and overtures from Trump.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-27/wary-of-trump-s-flip-flops-china-prepares-for-worst-on-trade?srnd=premium-asia

".....his efforts to depict China as caving in negotiations actually confirmed some of their worst fears about Trump: that he can’t be trusted to cut a deal. “Trump’s flip flop has further enlarged the distrust,” said Tao Dong, vice chairman for Greater China at Credit Suisse Private Banking in Hong Kong. “This makes a quick resolution nearly impossible.”

Which interesting enough, was exactly what the world's oldest (and arguably most experienced and suffer no fool) leader, Mahathir, said almost a year ago :

"Because he changes his views even in a matter of hours," he explained. .....Dealing with people who are not consistent is a very big problem," the prime minister said."

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/mahathir-tells-trump-to-be-consistent-new-york-10763916

Get the feeling that China and the rest of Asia have had enough of Trump and the US?

Which means that the trade war is officially ON with no resolution until Trump leaves the Presidency, with all kinds of ramifications for countries like NZ and Oz caught in the middle.

[bull....]

still in the range

[Balance]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMqcLUqYqrs

Worth watching if you want a reality check on where the US is today as a nation.

"America used to wage war on poverty, not poor people ..."

"Aspired to intelligence, we did not belittle it and make Americans feel inferior.."

"Able to do great things because we were inspired by great men who we revered ..."

[macduffy]

Interesting though to see that this youtube was first posted in 2012. Even more relevant today.

[RTM]

Ahhhh...that date is good to know....as they now have Trump to MAG !
So they should be ok.

[cyclist]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMqcLUqYqrs..."

What is this from Balance (a movie I assume, but which one)? Quite a rousing speech.

[Snow Leopard]

What is this from Balance (a movie I assume, but which one)? Quite a rousing speech.

The Newsroom Series 1 Episode 1

[Balance]

What is this from Balance (a movie I assume, but which one)? Quite a rousing speech.

And all very true! Rather prophetic!

[Lewylewylewy]

We seem to be doing well with the drop in currency value. Good for exporters.

[Tomtom]

China will ride this shyster out as it will not allow a repeat of the 100 years of humiliation by the West & Japan. Perhaps the addictive substance that undermined Chinas historic preeminence subsequent to the Opium Wars will allow China to usurp the US in economic terms shortly. Sort of a meandering loop in history looking to close itself after about a hundred and eighty years.


Brexit: Which New Zealand listed companies would likely benefit most from a bilateral trade agreement with the UK? It look like they just might shoot themselves in the foot and it would be remiss of us not to be prepared to take full advantage.

[Balance]

Perhaps the addictive substance that undermined Chinas historic preeminence subsequent to the Opium Wars will allow China to usurp the US in economic terms shortly. Sort of a meandering loop in history looking to close itself after about a hundred and eighty years.


Brexit: Which New Zealand listed companies would likely benefit most from a bilateral trade agreement with the UK? It look like they just might shoot themselves in the foot and it would be remiss of us not to be prepared to take full advantage.

The Buddhists & Hindus have a word for it - Karma.

The West (being Britain, France, Russia, Japan & US latterly) forced opium down the throats of the Chinese in exchange for all the goods they wanted from China at that time of great value (tea, silk, porcelain, silver, gold etc), so the West reaps the punishment of history and karma now with the flow of drugs down the veins of its citizens, especially the youth.

As the Brits are fond of saying : What goes around, comes around.

Re Brexit : https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/countries-and-regions/europe/united-kingdom/brexit-the-uk-and-europe/

If you could be bothered reading the above and and thinking through all the different scenarios which emerge from what kind of deal (brexit or no deal brexit).

Plenty of negotiations ahead still but note that a no-deal Brexit means no transition period which could result in chaos in UK trade. Very good for NZ as one of the most efficient producer of agricultural products, I would have thought.

[macduffy]

Plenty of negotiations ahead still but note that a no-deal Brexit means no transition period which could result in chaos in UK trade. Very good for NZ as one of the most efficient producer of agricultural products, I would have thought.

Provided it's possible to get the stuff through the expected chaos of British Customs!

[BlackPeter]

Plenty of negotiations ahead still but note that a no-deal Brexit means no transition period which could result in chaos in UK trade. Very good for NZ as one of the most efficient producer of agricultural products, I would have thought.

I suppose the big problem for the untied kingdom after a hard Brexit won't be to source produce (plenty of willing sellers around), but to pay for them. Their financial services sector will be from one day to the next without European customers - and I doubt the handful of Kiwis will as consumers adequately replace the European market. Their (into the European manufacturing process integrated) factories will either move to Europe or grind to a halt. Their education and research sector will quickly lose its brightest brains (no European grants anymore) - and that way lose as well its attraction to foreign students.

Not quite sure, whether we want to deal with the sad reminders of a once great Britain after they brexited ... but if we want to, than we should be prepared to queue up in a long row of unpaid creditors ...

[peat]

The risk of no-deal is rising fast. 2 months ago Mr Johnson talked of its being “a-million-to-one against”. Now he says it is “touch and go”. In political terms, no-deal has appeal to Johnson

Taking back control: Boris Johnson suspends Parliament, causing uproar https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/08/28/boris-johnson-suspends-parliament-causing-uproar via @TheEconomist

[dabsman]

The Buddhists & Hindus have a word for it - Karma.

The West (being Britain, France, Russia, Japan & US latterly) forced opium down the throats of the Chinese in exchange for all the goods they wanted from China at that time of great value (tea, silk, porcelain, silver, gold etc), so the West reaps the punishment of history and karma now with the flow of drugs down the veins of its citizens, especially the youth.

As the Brits are fond of saying : What goes around, comes around.



The Chinese have never lived up to their WTO obligations. Corrupt government corporations raping a pillaging Western technology, government subsidizing industries to put western companies out of business, anti-trust behavior, currency manipulation, copyright and patent theft. Add on top of this no human rights and social credit scores that mean people cannot speak out for fear of not even being able to get on a bus. I don't know but Trump is doing the right thing. Someone needs to hold them to account and the worlds biggest economy is probably the only one. We should be applauding him not listening to biased media. We should all be travelling to Hong Kong to protest with them. Well done them and I hope they are safe with the Chinese rolling in the tanks as we speak

[Balance]

The Chinese have never lived up to their WTO obligations. Corrupt government corporations raping a pillaging Western technology, government subsidizing industries to put western companies out of business, anti-trust behavior, currency manipulation, copyright and patent theft. Add on top of this no human rights and social credit scores that mean people cannot speak out for fear of not even being able to get on a bus. I don't know but Trump is doing the right thing. Someone needs to hold them to account and the worlds biggest economy is probably the only one. We should be applauding him not listening to biased media. We should all be travelling to Hong Kong to protest with them. Well done them and I hope they are safe with the Chinese rolling in the tanks as we speak

Bravo - word for word just like from Trump.

Complete and utter rubbish & garbage.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3024820/chinese-militarys-move-hong-kong-sunrise-was-routine-annual

Trump doing the right thing? Now that’s original!

[dabsman]

Complete and utter rubbish.

I guess Tibet is Chinese too? Despite multiple United Nations rulings it is not which leaves china free to carry out atrocities at will? Tell me what is rubbish in any of what I said? I love Hong Kong - I hope they will be ok. If they don't do something they will all be suppressed and put under the Chinese yoke. It will happen in 2046 (2040 something) in any regard but China will not last that long as it is.

[Balance]

I guess Tibet is Chinese too? Despite multiple United Nations rulings it is not which leaves china free to carry out atrocities at will? Tell me what is rubbish in any of what I said? I love Hong Kong - I hope they will be ok. If they don't do something they will all be suppressed and put under the Chinese yoke. It will happen in 2046 (2040 something) in any regard but China will not last that long as it is.

And you think America is American?

Whatever happened to the land rights & nationhood of native Indians, I wonder - slaughtered nearly to extinction and the survivors herded into infertile & geographically hostile reservations to starve so that the 'settlers' (like the Trumps of today) can take their land. I guess you know your history well enough to also comment on how the government of the day ordered the complete slaughter & decimation of the millions of bisons roaming the plains to deprive the natives of food, completely destroying their way of life so that they were forced to surrender?

Read : https://www.history.com/topics/native-american-history/indian-reservations

And it was only in 1934 (not that long ago) that the Native Indians were acknowledged to have been marginalized and the law changed.

And shall we look across to Australia and discuss Aborigine land? How the Aborigines were classed as vermin to be slaughtered so that their land could be taken. Guess not, huh?

[Balance]

Well done them and I hope they are safe with the Chinese rolling in the tanks as we speak

Rolling in the tanks - that's your assessment? You have not got a clue what you are writing about, do you?

Just as you assessed the HK protests as push for democratic reforms?

You really think that China is suppressing HK? Before or after the Opium war?

HK was suppressed by the British without any democratic rights for 100 years, ruling as Colonial Lord & Master. On the eve of handing HK back to its rightful owner, the Brits try to introduce democratic reforms! Who is kidding who? You really need to read the history of how the Brits exploited China and Hong Kong for 180 years with the co-operation of the HK tycoons, especially the Scots & Jews. Latterly, the British used HK Chinese - the land & property tycoons.

PS. I am no fan of doing business with the China Chinese and they do need to be brought to account on a number of fronts. NZ has to do business with them however or else we are on a one way track down to economic regression. Criticizing China like you do without any understanding of how that country sees its place in the world is folly. Especially when you actually think Trump is the chosen one! :t_down:

[Balance]

So what's the relevance of my two posts above?

You can assess for yourself the misinformation out there regarding China so that Trump is seen to be the 'good' guy in trying to force China into submitting to his will via a trade war.

Never mind that he is targeting almost all countries to MAGA.

And really, there's only one country now which is calling his bluff and will not be backing down as history is on China's side.

Many more Black Mondays ahead as long as Trump holds sway over the ignoramus idiots out there.

Refine your investment strategy and portfolio accordingly.

[Balance]

For those of you who are genuinely interested in understanding the HK situation with an open mind, please spend 5 minutes to read this :

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11598-Hong-Kong-Protests-What-s-The-Real-Story&p=769937#post769937

Excerpt : "But Hong Kong’s problems can only be solved BY HKers and the worst aspect of the British political culture, which was unfortunately learned by heart by the HK politicians and tycoons, is basically “ solve INTERNAL problems INTERNATIONALLY, and solve ECONOMIC problems MILITARILY*”.

[dabsman]

Slightly off topic but hey the opium wars were quite recent? Lol.

You can defend china all you like. I'm not saying America is right either. I'd much rather be in a US court than a chinese. I'd much rather Hong Kong fight than roll over to lose all their freedoms. Taiwan will be next. Maybe we can build an island next to bali - I'd love 200nm economic region there - mean breaks

[bull....]

back towards the top of the range now thanks to comments by china

Dow jumps nearly 350 points after China hints it won’t retaliate for now in trade war
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-amid-recession-fears.html

just goes to show comments from china or the US on trade issues move markets

[Balance]

Slightly off topic but hey the opium wars were quite recent? Lol.

You can defend china all you like. I'm not saying America is right either. I'd much rather be in a US court than a chinese. I'd much rather Hong Kong fight than roll over to lose all their freedoms. Taiwan will be next. Maybe we can build an island next to bali - I'd love 200nm economic region there - mean breaks

Only criminals and those inclined towards criminal activities fear the courts - don't give yourself away please.

As for US Justice, you better hope you never find yourself in custody there:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/innocent-man-spent-months-in-jail-for-bringing-honey-back-to-united-states/2019/08/22/6c5c538c-71c3-11e9-9f06-5fc2ee80027a_story.html?noredirect=on

"It was a routine purchase for him until he landed in Baltimore’s airport. Customs officers detained Haughton and police arrested him, accusing him of smuggling in not honey but liquid meth.
Haughton spent nearly three months in jail before all charges were dropped and two rounds of law enforcement lab tests showed no controlled substances in the bottles."

[Balance]

back towards the top of the range now thanks to comments by china

Dow jumps nearly 350 points after China hints it won’t retaliate for now in trade war
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/stock-market-wall-street-in-focus-amid-recession-fears.html

just goes to show comments from china or the US on trade issues move markets

Dance around the fire - feels warmer as one gets closer, right? :D

[winner69]

the S&P 500 ended August 2019, down about 1.8% .....couldn’t have been much action over the month

[Tomtom]

The risk of no-deal is rising fast. 2 months ago Mr Johnson talked of its being “a-million-to-one against”. Now he says it is “touch and go”. In political terms, no-deal has appeal to Johnson

Taking back control: Boris Johnson suspends Parliament, causing uproar... I believe Mr. Johnson has every intention of leading the UK out of the EU without a deal, however he doesn't want to appear although this is his aim. What's interesting to me is the notion that the prime minister can suspend a parliamentary democracy, I certainly think that will be a useful tactic in bending parliament to a rulers will and stifling opposition.

[Ggcc]

I believe Mr. Johnson has every intention of leading the UK out of the EU without a deal, however he doesn't want to appear although this is his aim. What's interesting to me is the notion that the prime minister can suspend a parliamentary democracy, I certainly think that will be a useful tactic in bending parliament to a rulers will and stifling opposition.
I spoke with a mate from the UK who believes the UK don’t need Europe and that they will negotiate with the US on a free trade agreement. Europe needs to play ball and Europe needs the UK more than the UK needs Europe. I don’t agree with his ideas, Including that the rich don’t want Brexit as they have more to lose exiting. Who knows what the future brings, but the idea I get is that the UK have some tough times ahead

[Balance]

I spoke with a mate from the UK who believes the UK don’t need Europe and that they will negotiate with the US on a free trade agreement. Europe needs to play ball and Europe needs the UK more than the UK needs Europe. I don’t agree with his ideas, Including that the rich don’t want Brexit as they have more to lose exiting. Who knows what the future brings, but the idea I get is that the UK have some tough times ahead

UK is the world's 5th biggest economy & 10th most competitive (source : IMF) so there will be many countries keen to deal with the country, especially when it is freed from the shackles of all that EU regulations, restrictions, farming subsidies and cross-border nonsense.

But UK needs to get its act together and there is little sign that it is getting its act together so it's going to get worse before things get better.

Just imagine NZ being able to sell any amount of dairy products and meat (especially lamb) to the UK without all that EU tariffs and quotas. :t_up:

[Sideshow Bob]

Just imagine NZ being able to sell any amount of dairy products and meat (especially lamb) to the UK without all that EU tariffs and quotas. :t_up:

Looks like UK will have substantial tariffs into Europe - at least to start with. More will stay in the UK - and regardless British can't get anywhere near what the Chinese are paying.

[Lewylewylewy]

I wonder if the UK will struggle to import due to their currency dropping in value post Brexit.

[iceman]

I wonder if the UK will struggle to import due to their currency dropping in value post Brexit.

Music to the ears of their agriculture and fishing industries which will get a huge boost from Brexit

[BlackPeter]

Just imagine NZ being able to sell any amount of dairy products and meat (especially lamb) to the UK without all that EU tariffs and quotas. :t_up:


Music to the ears of their agriculture and fishing industries which will get a huge boost from Brexit

Absolutely - BREXIT will turn the UK from an international finance and insurance centre to an agricultural producer, which means they won't be interested in a trade deal with New Zealand - they will be able to produce their agricultural produce by themselves and anyway won't have the money to pay for other peoples goods.

[NeverQuestion]

Heads up, Most recessions/downturns start in the Months of September or October ..

[Jaa]

China's courts have a 99% conviction rate.

[Balance]

China's courts have a 99% conviction rate.

So?

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11598-Hong-Kong-Protests-What-s-The-Real-Story

How about NZ's court system which allows baby killers to go free because the killers are protected by the wall of silence, and other baby killers take their cue and kill more babies and children.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11608055

[Balance]

Brace yourself for when the Dow opens tomorrow :

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-trump-tariffs-escalate-china-trade-war-can-stock-market-rally/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

"Dow Jones futures fell sharply Monday afternoon, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. On Sunday, President Donald Trump went ahead with new China tariffs on $110 billion worth of imports, including some Apple (AAPL) products for the first time. Beijing retaliated, further escalating the China trade war."

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3025334/china-concessions-us-would-be-grave-error-any-trade-deal

"Chinese state media and government advisers have said Beijing is in no rush for a trade deal, instead warning that any concessions made to the United States would be a grave error."

[BlackPeter]

"Chinese state media and government advisers have said Beijing is in no rush for a trade deal, instead warning that any concessions made to the United States would be a grave error."

And they are absolutely right. Caving in to Trump would only lead to further blackmail from the bully in charge.

While I don't particularly like Xi's undemocratic and oppressive government - I can absolutely understand their stance in this particular matter. The only thing they can do is hold their position and wait for the bully to go away - be it thanks to elections or thanks to the biological solution.

I think as well that this would be an opportunity for the still honorable governments in the world to hold together against the crook in the white house.

[Balance]

And they are absolutely right. Caving in to Trump would only lead to further blackmail from the bully in charge.

While I don't particularly like Xi's undemocratic and oppressive government - I can absolutely understand their stance in this particular matter. The only thing they can do is hold their position and wait for the bully to go away - be it thanks to elections or thanks to the biological solution.

I think as well that this would be an opportunity for the still honorable governments in the world to hold together against the crook in the white house.

Agreed. Only China now stands between the world kowtowing to the US and Trump.

Sadly for the rest of the world, Trump is a reflection of where the US as a country (and people) are at - bully boys who have been living off the hard work & toil of other countries by borrowing trillions of dollars (because they still can) to fund their purchases of goods & services made & provided by others (including the wretched migrant workers doing all the menial & dirty jobs in the US), and then threatening and waging wars on other countries to protect their 'right' to loot from other countries.

[Jaa]

So?

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11598-Hong-Kong-Protests-What-s-The-Real-Story

How about NZ's court system which allows baby killers to go free because the killers are protected by the wall of silence, and other baby killers take their cue and kill more babies and children.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11608055

Come on balance, that's just whataboutism. You are better than a 50 cent army troll.

A 99% conviction rate means there is no system of justice in China, period.

The real bully is China. They steal technology and rig the game so they always win. You have been around long enough to remember Lion Nathan, Rakon and Fonterra's expansions in China to name but 3 local disasters? China doesn't play remotely fair and haven't for 30 years.

US imports from China are 4.5x what China imports from the US. The CCP have messed up badly to let things get so out of whack. No large country would tolerate that forever.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

[dabsman]

China's courts have a 99% conviction rate.

Disregard Balance on this - he is far from his name when it comes to China. Maybe he is fully paid up in the biggest mass murderer of all times fan club? 万岁 毛主席

"Both Hitler and Stalin were outdone by Mao Zedong. From 1958 to 1962, his Great Leap Forward policy led to the deaths of up to 45 million people – easily making it the biggest episode of mass murder ever recorded"

[dobby41]

US imports from China are 4.5x what China imports from the US. The CCP have messed up badly to let things get so out of whack.

I don't think China forced the US to import (buy) their stuff.
China had stuff that the US wanted to buy at a price they wanted to pay.
The US had little that China wanted to buy or charged too much.

Again - the US didn't have to buy China's stuff, it was their choice.

[Balance]

I don't think China forced the US to import (buy) their stuff.
China had stuff that the US wanted to buy at a price they wanted to pay.
The US had little that China wanted to buy or charged too much.

Again - the US didn't have to buy China's stuff, it was their choice.

Dr. Marc Faber, the investment guru, concluded his monthly bulletin with the following comments :

The federal government is sending each of us a $600 rebate.

If we spend that money at Wal-Mart, the money goes to China.

If we spend it on gasoline it goes to the Arabs.

If we buy a software, it will go to India.

If we purchase fruits and vegetables, it will go to Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala.

If we purchase a good car, it will go to Germany and Japan.

If we purchase useless crap, it will go to Taiwan or Korea.

In short, none of it will help the American economy.
The only way to keep that money here at home is to spend it on

Guns:t_up:, whores:t_up:, Opioids:t_up:, Beer:t_up: and Wall Street scammers:t_up:

since these are the only products still produced in abundant quantities in the US!

[Balance]

A 99% conviction rate means there is no system of justice in China, period.



Note:

Japan boasts 99% conviction rate too.

Federal Court in US boasts 97% conviction rate. And you better not be black if you are in a state court!

PS. Baby killers certainly do not walk free in any of those countries, unlike NZ. That's justice for the victims, Jaa.

[Jaa]

I don't think China forced the US to import (buy) their stuff.
China had stuff that the US wanted to buy at a price they wanted to pay.
The US had little that China wanted to buy or charged too much.

Again - the US didn't have to buy China's stuff, it was their choice.

Agreed and equally it's the US's choice to impose tariffs to discourage Americans from buying from China

Note, also the US (and others) has plenty of things Chinese people do want to buy but China forces joint ventures (diluting the US benefit) with compulsory techology transfer (long term loss), steals or makes it hard to buy.

Eg most of China runs on pirated Microsoft software. https://fortune.com/2018/11/02/ballmer-china-windows-piracy

Eg2 Every major western internet company is blocked in China for reasons of protecting domestic companies.

Eg3 government run anti foreign product campaigns dissuade the purchase of foreign cars and other high value goods.

Eg4 the whole daigou industry wouldn't exist if it was easy to sell foreign products in China.

And if you have a dispute with your Chinese partner, try taking them to court... Oh wait nevermind.

[Balance]

Agreed and equally it's the US's choice to impose tariffs to discourage Americans from buying from China

Note, also the US (and others) has plenty of things Chinese people do want to buy but China forces joint ventures (diluting the US benefit) with compulsory techology transfer (long term loss), steals or makes it hard to buy.

Eg most of China runs on pirated Microsoft software. https://fortune.com/2018/11/02/ballmer-china-windows-piracy

Eg2 Every major western internet company is blocked in China for reasons of protecting domestic companies.

Eg3 government run anti foreign product campaigns dissuade the purchase of foreign cars and other high value goods.

Eg4 the whole daigou industry wouldn't exist if it was easy to sell foreign products in China.

And if you have a dispute with your Chinese partner, try taking them to court... Oh wait nevermind.

Written almost exactly word for word from the mouth of that prize baboon Trump.:t_up:

Enjoy! :D

[Balance]

Note, also the US (and others) has plenty of things Chinese people do want to buy but China forces joint ventures (diluting the US benefit) with compulsory techology transfer (long term loss), steals or makes it hard to buy.

NZ and Australia imposed exactly the same conditions from the 1950s to 1980s (40 years) on any companies wanting to sell products or services in both countries.

Result - crap cars, crap clothings, crap TVs & radios, crap furniture, crap banking system etc etc at horrendous prices!

Question - why did NZ & Oz do so badly and why are the Asian countries (especially China) able to do so well with these products & services?

Answer - Make America Great Again! :t_up:

[Jaa]

PS. NZ and Australia imposed exactly the same conditions during the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s on any companies wanting to sell or do business in both countries. Ended up with both countries producing crap cars, crap TVs, crap clothings, crap banking system etc etc. Wonder why China can do so well when Oz and NZ ended up with disasters?

Protectionism needs a large donestic market to be effective. You are finally on to it though, protectionism has not produced Chinese cars, consumer goods or construction standards of high quality! Their banking system is also a ticking time bomb, they just had a huge blow up in peer to peer lending that destroyed many people's life savings and led to large protests that had to be suppressed with force.

Those are China's choices to make but don't expect the rest of the world to just accept them. In an interdependent world the choices you make have consequences.

[Jaa]

Written almost exactly word for word from the mouth of that prize baboon Trump.:t_up:

Enjoy! :D

No reply to those 4 examples then? Or the earlier one about NZ companies?

I don't get a vote in US elections, but I'm quite a fan of Elizabeth Warren. Sorry to be the one to break it to you, but she's looking even tougher on China than Trump.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/cramer-elizabeth-warren-would-be-tougher-on-china-than-trump.html

Hope your Chinese contract works out well balance.

[Balance]

Protectionism needs a large donestic market to be effective. You are finally on to it though, protectionism has not produced Chinese cars, consumer goods or construction standards of high quality! Their banking system is also a ticking time bomb, they just had a huge blow up in peer to peer lending that destroyed many people's life savings and led to large protests that had to be suppressed with force.

Those are China's choices to make but don't expect the rest of the world to just accept them. In an interdependent world the choices you make have consequences.

Hard working people - that’s the difference.

Guess it’s easier to try and use force huh to get already hard working people who sacrifice a lot to get ahead to work even harder?

I think that's how the African blacks were 'recruited' to make America great in its formation years huh?

[dobby41]

Agreed and equally it's the US's choice to impose tariffs to discourage Americans from buying from China

Note, also the US (and others) has plenty of things Chinese people do want to buy but China forces joint ventures (diluting the US benefit) with compulsory techology transfer (long term loss), steals or makes it hard to buy.
The US can impose tariffs to discourage Americans from buying from China but Trump shouldn't be lying to them that the Chinese pay - they don't, the Americans do.
The people will pay more for the stuff they want in the land of the free.
As for the joint ventures - that is very clever of the Chinese. It grows their manufacturing base. Now, of course, companies don't have to take those joint ventures - they just don't do business.


Eg most of China runs on pirated Microsoft software. https://fortune.com/2018/11/02/ballmer-china-windows-piracy
and much of the rest of the world - there is a lot of pirated software out there.


Eg2 Every major western internet company is blocked in China for reasons of protecting domestic companies.
Internet companies like your ISP? Or Internet companies like Facebook etc?
I think it has more to do with controlling information than protecting local companies from competition.


Eg3 government run anti foreign product campaigns dissuade the purchase of foreign cars and other high value goods.
Just a different approach than tariffs.


Eg4 the whole daigou industry wouldn't exist if it was easy to sell foreign products in China.
So? It does exist and then companies sell their products direct (ATM). Good pre-marketing, test the waters.


And if you have a dispute with your Chinese partner, try taking them to court... Oh wait nevermind.
True - I wouldn't want to have to.

Still, the US bleats that it is all unfair but they still want to buy cheap products.
I say again - China isn't forcing them to buy their goods, it is a free market.
It may have tilts here and their (not level) but still free choice for the American people.

[bull....]

still in the range US markets

[BlackPeter]

Protectionism needs a large donestic market to be effective. You are finally on to it though, protectionism has not produced Chinese cars, consumer goods or construction standards of high quality! Their banking system is also a ticking time bomb, they just had a huge blow up in peer to peer lending that destroyed many people's life savings and led to large protests that had to be suppressed with force.

Those are China's choices to make but don't expect the rest of the world to just accept them. In an interdependent world the choices you make have consequences.

Interesting - just replace in your post above the terms "Chinese" and "China" with "American" and "America" and it is still all true. Idiots sitting on both sides of the battleline - and we are just sitting in between ...

[Balance]

https://www.investopedia.com/why-bank-of-america-says-dividend-stocks-are-the-only-play-now-4769206?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&yptr=yahoo

Go high yielders.

[Balance]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/trump-warns-china-against-dragging-its-feet-in-trade-talks-idUSKCN1VO1K0

And this prize idiot Trump still does not get it - China does not really give a stuff anymore about his bluff and bluster.

Only his pot bellied red neck lazy free loading electoral base does and they are going to find out the hard way when the US goes into a deep recession next year.

Enjoy! :t_up:

[blobbles]

UK snap election probably imminent. Markets might not like the uncertainty...

[Jaa]

Dobby41 you seem to place little value on the rule of law which is strange for an investor, as it is the fair and even application of the rule of law that supports all our investments whether in the share market, peer to peer lending or in property.


The US can impose tariffs to discourage Americans from buying from China but Trump shouldn't be lying to them that the Chinese pay - they don't, the Americans do.
The people will pay more for the stuff they want in the land of the free.

I want to reply to the above though as you are mistaken by a common fallacy.

Economics teaches us that the incidence of any tax falls on those with the least market power. Think about whether employer Kiwisaver contributions come from the employer's pocket or the employee's. A highly valued and irreplaceable employee will be able to squeeze the boss, where a more easily replaced employee will not. It depends on who has more market power.

This effect is stronger for international trade, as large markets have the power to bend the terms of trade in their favour. Look at the products that the US imports from China, they are more easily replaceable than the goods the US exports to China. So to maintain sales and market share, Chinese manufacturers may choose to lower their prices by 25% so the price to the end consumer stays the same. In this case it is indeed Chinese manufacturers that are paying the tariff. Obviously it is easier to eat a 5% price decrease than a 30% one. Lowering your currency, which China is doing, is another method to achieve the same result. This is known as burden sharing (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04182.pdf).

If you compare the terms of trade (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html) for 2019 with 2018 you can see the terms of trade gap has started to close.

I am not saying this is fair, just explaining the economics behind it. The same thing happened to NZ when the UK joined the EU in the 70s, NZ commodity exporters had to pay the EU's tariffs until we found new markets.

All of this is fairly predicable and clear evidence of the CCP's economic mismanagement. They should have identified the political danger of a massively out of whack terms of trade with the world's largest economy early on and made sure the terms of trade was below 2:1 and not let it get to 4.5:1.

[dobby41]

Dobby41 you seem to place little value on the rule of law which is strange for an investor, as it is the fair and even application of the rule of law that supports all our investments whether in the share market, peer to peer lending or in property.



I want to reply to the above though as you are mistaken by a common fallacy.

Economics teaches us that the incidence of any tax falls on those with the least market power. Think about whether employer Kiwisaver contributions come from the employer's pocket or the employee's. A highly valued and irreplaceable employee will be able to squeeze the boss, where a more easily replaced employee will not. It depends on who has more market power.

This effect is stronger for international trade, as large markets have the power to bend the terms of trade in their favour. Look at the products that the US imports from China, they are more easily replaceable than the goods the US exports to China. So to maintain sales and market share, Chinese manufacturers may choose to lower their prices by 25% so the price to the end consumer stays the same. In this case it is indeed Chinese manufacturers that are paying the tariff. Obviously it is easier to eat a 5% price decrease than a 30% one. Lowering your currency, which China is doing, is another method to achieve the same result. This is known as burden sharing (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04182.pdf).

If you compare the terms of trade (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html) for 2019 with 2018 you can see the terms of trade gap has started to close.

I am not saying this is fair, just explaining the economics behind it. The same thing happened to NZ when the UK joined the EU in the 70s, NZ commodity exporters had to pay the EU's tariffs until we found new markets.

All of this is fairly predicable and clear evidence of the CCP's economic mismanagement. They should have identified the political danger of a massively out of whack terms of trade with the world's largest economy early on and made sure the terms of trade was below 2:1 and not let it get to 4.5:1.
Rule of law in China - it is what it is and you have to deal with it if you want to play with them.
Not saying it is right but it is reality.

As to who pays the tariff - maybe they will reduce the prices, maybe they won't.
Have they - there are tariff increases now?

[bull....]

back at the top of the ranges US markets , catalysts for a breakup. + non farm payrolls ( negative to markets could see us in range still) followed by big ECB easing and then fed meeting easing possible 50 bp move and finally trade news positive about meeting could make a good sept.

[bull....]

how about that just got news on trade meeting , futures going higher.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-05/china-u-s-to-hold-trade-talks-in-washington-in-early-october?srnd=premium-asia

[bull....]

broken to the upside of range very bullish if it holds , see what happens with non farm tonight. funny thing recently now is trumps tweets have caused the market to tank and chinese tweets have caused the market to rip higher. just goes to show both sides have power to move markets.

[value_investor]

I can see the market go over 28,000 if and when the trade issues have been resolved. Its currently put the breaks on but I can see it race up there quickly at any sign of good news.

Over here, I've not bought any shares in the domestic market since early this year. I'm really struggling to find anything of value out here. There's a lot of irrational prices which I don't see being sustainable in the long run which is generally my view with the rapid rise of the nzx.

Good example of AIA which I sold out of now. Increase of about 40% in price in the past year, with a underlying profit increase of 4%, passenger growth of 2.8% and showing a PE of 43. During a downturn/recession passenger numbers will decrease like it did in 2008. I'm seeing a lot of stocks that really don't make any sense to me on paper.

[ratkin]

I can see the market go over 28,000 if and when the trade issues have been resolved. Its currently put the breaks on but I can see it race up there quickly at any sign of good news.

Over here, I've not bought any shares in the domestic market since early this year. I'm really struggling to find anything of value out here. There's a lot of irrational prices which I don't see being sustainable in the long run which is generally my view with the rapid rise of the nzx.

Good example of AIA which I sold out of now. Increase of about 40% in price in the past year, with a underlying profit increase of 4%, passenger growth of 2.8% and showing a PE of 43. During a downturn/recession passenger numbers will decrease like it did in 2008. I'm seeing a lot of stocks that really don't make any sense to me on paper.

Unusual times ahead though, with yields on deposits possibly declining for years to come then even 2 or 3 percent yields on stocks start to look attractive. It is he only thing that can make the P/Es of the solid companies justifiable in the medium term. Personally prefer the likes of SUM IFT and EBO in particular as better places to park cash, but each to their own.

[NZSilver]

Bloody hard work being a value investor in the current market conditions.

[Lewylewylewy]

The are pockets of value on the asx, i noticed

[Balance]

Bloody hard work being a value investor in the current market conditions.

If interest rates go negative (general expectations), value becomes relative to what is available in other investments.

I am loading up on high yield stocks with favorable competitive and industry settings.

Fully expect that others (in term deposits) facing cliff face falls in interest incomes will join the party next year - albeit reluctantly.

[percy]

Those investors who loaded up on quality high yielding stocks a year or more ago,are not only enjoying their fat dividends,but have seen huge capital appreciation of their share portfolios too.
With projected lower interest rates forecast, these investors will be "well positioned" for sometime yet.

[winner69]

Those investors who loaded up on quality high yielding stocks a year or more ago,are not only enjoying their fat dividends,but have seen huge capital appreciation of their share portfolios too.
With projected lower interest rates forecast, these investors will be "well positioned" for sometime yet.

Always good to be ‘ahead of the curve’ eh percy

[percy]

Always good to be ‘ahead of the curve’ eh percy

Bit lucky with my timing.Decided to load up on the divies when I finally gave up selling books.Once I had achieved the divie income I wanted,then I had funds left over for my fun stocks.[which have been fun] .lol.
The real fun will be trying to get to the exit should/when interest rates look set to rise.

[Balance]

Those investors who loaded up on quality high yielding stocks a year or more ago,are not only enjoying their fat dividends,but have seen huge capital appreciation of their share portfolios too.
With projected lower interest rates forecast, these investors will be "well positioned" for sometime yet.

Well, have been happy to load up on a couple of high yielders which have been ignored by the market in recent times - at the riskier end but imagine just 2% of that billions of dollars maturing each month in term deposits going into high yielders.

Up, up and away, I say!

As usual, do your own research, posters who are term depositors. Always last cab off the rank and harbingers of the next big crash!

[value_investor]

Those investors who loaded up on quality high yielding stocks a year or more ago,are not only enjoying their fat dividends,but have seen huge capital appreciation of their share portfolios too.
With projected lower interest rates forecast, these investors will be "well positioned" for sometime yet.

I've held a few stocks that have performed even better than I could have ever expected. I'm just bawking at those prices people are willing to pay for them right now and would never pay that for them. While interest rates are low, I think when a recession hits a lot of stocks will get re-rated back to true valuation.

[Stranger_Danger]

Bit lucky with my timing.Decided to load up on the divies when I finally gave up selling books.Once I had achieved the divie income I wanted,then I had funds left over for my fun stocks.[which have been fun] .lol.
The real fun will be trying to get to the exit should/when interest rates look set to rise.

The problem is "when interest rates look set to rise" will be too late. At the extremes we are now at, all that is needed is a change in perceptions eg people stop believing that interest rates will never go up and/or people start to question the credit quality behind the trillions of dollars of promises that have been made to pay back bugger all.

Anyone can say "yes please" when you offer to give them your money to use. One way to measure the strength of that promise is by the other party sending money back on a regular basis, as promised. The smaller the amount of money they have to send back, the larger the amount the other party can ask you to give them, and the longer it takes to figure out the promise to repay was based solely on finding a bigger fool to sell the collateral to.

[ratkin]

Can still get 3% on term deposit, which is not the end of the world.
Bigger worry is how safe is the money while it is there.

[couta1]

I've held a few stocks that have performed even better than I could have ever expected. I'm just bawking at those prices people are willing to pay for them right now and would never pay that for them. While interest rates are low, I think when a recession hits a lot of stocks will get re-rated back to true valuation. Couldnt agree more, it might be fun chasing a skunk but corner him and you'll come out smelling pretty bad. PS-Prices can go sky high without any increase in value when being driven by sentiment.

[percy]

I get the feeling that Monday maybe not so hot...anyone care to comment.

First post of this thread.23/8/2015.Many posts since.All advising caution.Number of people gone to cash or gold.So lets see what has happened to us mugs who have stayed invested..
S&P NZX 50 Gross Index.
September 20th 2015................5696.45
September 18th 2016................7296.74
September 17th 2017................7814.78
September 16th 2018................9375.91
September 15th 2019................11,153.94
The increase from September 2015 to September 2019 is 95.80%.
The price of gold in the same period has increased 31.40% from 1146.25 to 1506.24.

[Beagle]

Can still get 3% on term deposit, which is not the end of the world.
Bigger worry is how safe is the money while it is there.

I think that's the point that's lost by some people. Money is probably safer in the Gentailiers some of whom are paying over 5% gross yield than it is on term deposit with the banks which are subject to the open banking resolution. North of 5% in a safe utility with interest rates at 100 year lows is still quite attractive in my opinion and obviously overseas investors see it that way with the way they're being bid up lately.

~ 30% of prime Govt and caproate debt in the world is now paying negative interest rates. Local gentailier yields have to be seen in that perspective.

[couta1]

First post of this thread.23/8/2015.Many posts since.All advising caution.Number of people gone to cash or gold.So lets see what has happened to us mugs who have stayed invested..
S&P NZX 50 Gross Index.
September 20th 2015................5696.45
September 18th 2016................7296.74
September 17th 2017................7814.78
September 16th 2018................9375.91
September 15th 2019................11,153.94
The increase from September 2015 to September 2019 is 95.80%.
The price of gold in the same period has increased 31.40% from 1146.25 to 1506.24. Havent been out of the market over that time frame but have lost money in a couple of stocks, I only hold 3 stocks currently and only 1 of them is not for trading. PS-There are only 3 other stocks I would buy on the NZX currently, the rest are like buying fruit in peak season in an under supplied market.PPS-It ain't a black Monday from where I'm sitting its glorious.

[tobo]

Contact, Meridian and Spark all down 5% at the moment. Seems a bit higher than the usual turbulence

[winner69]

Contact, Meridian and Spark all down 5% at the moment. Seems a bit higher than the usual turbulence

....could be the start of the big correction?

[tobo]

volumes not high, so probably just consolidating

[bull....]

Contact, Meridian and Spark all down 5% at the moment. Seems a bit higher than the usual turbulence

probably to do with bond prices correcting ( as some people treat gentailers are bond proxies at the moment )

[bull....]

ECB meeting tonight is of interest to markets , also next week fed meeting or as trump says the 'boneheads' meeting will be of big interest.

[Joshuatree]

What Just Happened "Has Only Occurred On Two Days In History" (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kolanovic-what-just-happened-has-only-occurred-two-days-history)

Can someone condense this into a plain english sentence.Seems like a mix of movement from income to safety stocks and reverse, liquidity hence pricing anomalies on small caps and shorting.

[JBmurc]

Should well see Gold north of $1600oz USD ....


10764

[dzhang1510]

Deleted message

[bull....]

ECB meeting last night re- starting QE

European Central Bank cuts its deposit rate, launches new bond-buying program
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/european-central-bank-launches-new-bond-buying-program.html

[NeverQuestion]

Repo cash Injections have started!

Last time this happened was 2007 to address massive Liquidity problems in the financial system. If the Fed didn't just step in then interest rates would have spiked up. The Fed are trying to keep the rates down so they make money easy to obtain for the banks and consumers. Higher rates would be detrimental to the economy right now.

Why would this have meant an interest rates spike? Liquidity freeze is when Banks don't know who to trust and are unwilling to lend to other banks as a result. This is why liquidity dries up. Basically, something has them spooked and the risk is too high. Typically they will want a bigger return from the loan to another bank which means a higher interest rate pushed onto consumers.

Why do banks loan to other banks? Because banks must have XXX amount on their balance sheet at the end of each business day. Often there is a shortfall, they make this up by taking a short term loan from another bank that has more than XXX amount on their books.

What has banks spooked? That is a Trillion dollar question! Not known publicly yet. Last time it was Subprime loans.. This time could be anything. Might be 12 months out from finding out like with Lehman brothers event in 2008 or we might see it this year.

Who knows, This hasn't happened for a decade. DYOR, This is mine.. I think this and the million of other market indicators flashing red we are on the edge of something big..

But we could also be 20 years away from a recession. Who knows! But this to me is a critical alert!

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/fed-repo-injects-another-75-billion-into-market-4th-day-2019-9?r=US&IR=T

[Bobdn]

Yes, its a worry. I switched some cash to precious metals earlier in the year, in particular through a silver ETF (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/etpmag).

I sold my position a few weeks back for a return of just over 40 per cent (not talking big dollars here but the per cent is accurate:), a lot of this was because our NZD went down substantially at the same time silver hit a three year peak. I still have a tiny gold position through PMGOLD (https://www.perthmint.com/storage/perth-mint-gold-asx.html) which accounts for 2.5 per cent of my total portfolio.

I'd love to buy some more but gold is almost $2500 in NZD - the most its ever been. Its much higher than in the darkest days of 2011. I just can't bring myself to buy at these levels.

Just 8 months ago gold and silver was for cranks. Now just about everyone is talking about it - just another reason I don't feel like buying it at this point in time. All of a sudden gold and silver are considered mainstream investments. But when they were 40 per cent cheaper? Not so much :)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-10/citi-says-gold-may-top-record-as-risks-mount-fed-cuts-to-zero

I just finished reading The Mandiables this week by Lionel Shriver. I renewed my library card especially just so I could get it out. It's brilliant.

https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/lionel-shrivers-american-collapse

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not some apocalyptic weirdo. However if gold drops a little, I'm bringing my precious metal holdings back up to 5 per cent of my portfolio. If it helps me sleep a little better, its a good investment.

[bull....]

looks like the spike in bonds is over , dow utilities hitting all time highs today confirms

[JBmurc]

Yes, its a worry. I switched some cash to precious metals earlier in the year, in particular through a silver ETF (https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/etpmag).

I sold my position a few weeks back for a return of just over 40 per cent (not talking big dollars here but the per cent is accurate:), a lot of this was because our NZD went down substantially at the same time silver hit a three year peak. I still have a tiny gold position through PMGOLD (https://www.perthmint.com/storage/perth-mint-gold-asx.html) which accounts for 2.5 per cent of my total portfolio.

I'd love to buy some more but gold is almost $2500 in NZD - the most its ever been. Its much higher than in the darkest days of 2011. I just can't bring myself to buy at these levels.

Just 8 months ago gold and silver was for cranks. Now just about everyone is talking about it - just another reason I don't feel like buying it at this point in time. All of a sudden gold and silver are considered mainstream investments. But when they were 40 per cent cheaper? Not so much :)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-10/citi-says-gold-may-top-record-as-risks-mount-fed-cuts-to-zero

I just finished reading The Mandiables this week by Lionel Shriver. I renewed my library card especially just so I could get it out. It's brilliant.

https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/lionel-shrivers-american-collapse

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not some apocalyptic weirdo. However if gold drops a little, I'm bringing my precious metal holdings back up to 5 per cent of my portfolio. If it helps me sleep a little better, its a good investment.

Geez I must be a HUGE crank as I've been bullish and held positions in Gold Companies since Gold was around $500oz USD 12yrs+ ago ..

As for Gold having its day think it's only just started its latest Bull market

the international financial system far from back on track ?? I see more Negative rates being announced daily and many central banks even RBNZ talking about it being an option going forward>>


Its well known Gold can be leased out and return a yield>>


One company I came across

https://monetary-metals.com/investing/gold-fixed-income/true-gold-leases/

[bull....]

Pelosi announces impeachment inquiry into Trump as pressure grows over alleged abuses of power
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/nancy-pelosi-announces-trump-impeachment-inquiry-by-house-democrats.html

cant be positive in the short term

[sb9]

Pelosi announces impeachment inquiry into Trump as pressure grows over alleged abuses of power


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/nancy-pelosi-announces-trump-impeachment-inquiry-by-house-democrats.html

cant be positive in the short term

Can only be positive as we can forget those silly tweets from time to time for no reason

[Lewylewylewy]

Impeaching is a political stunt that will fail, i think.

They have to get it past the house of reps to allow it, then 2/3 off the Senate have to judge him guilty. Even if they do, nothing may happen.

It's not a proper court, it's a political one. Also, i don't believe that most Americans know what impeach means, and any news if bad behavior will continue to be water off trump's back.

It's all a show, I think.

[blackcap]

Impeaching is a political stunt that will fail, i think.

They have to get it past the house of reps to allow it, then 2/3 off the Senate have to judge him guilty. Even if they do, nothing may happen.

It's not a proper court, it's a political one. Also, i don't believe that most Americans know what impeach means, and any news if bad behavior will continue to be water off trump's back.

It's all a show, I think.

Agree with you there. I even think Trump (politically) will gladly have the Dems try and impeach him. Will make his re-election in 2020 a breeze. Pelosi's hand is being twister by the squad and she is committing political suicide.

[BlackPeter]

Impeaching is a political stunt that will fail, i think.

They have to get it past the house of reps to allow it, then 2/3 off the Senate have to judge him guilty. Even if they do, nothing may happen.

It's not a proper court, it's a political one. Also, i don't believe that most Americans know what impeach means, and any news if bad behavior will continue to be water off trump's back.

It's all a show, I think.

Sure - draining the swamp gets more difficult if you make the largest and ugliest swamp creature its guardian. Some Americans seem to like corrupt liars without honor and decency running the show.

Still - isn't it refreshing that there are still some decent women and men left in the Democratic ranks? Shame about the GoP, though - they sold their soul to the devil (if they ever had one).

[RGR367]

Impeaching is a political stunt that will fail, i think.

They have to get it past the house of reps to allow it, then 2/3 off the Senate have to judge him guilty. Even if they do, nothing may happen.

It's not a proper court, it's a political one. Also, i don't believe that most Americans know what impeach means, and any news if bad behavior will continue to be water off trump's back.

It's all a show, I think.

I agree that it's all a numbers game but decent people has to try and see what's on this whistle blower stuff this time. And who knows.....

[mondograss]

I agree that it's all a numbers game but decent people has to try and see what's on this whistle blower stuff this time. And who knows.....

They might decide that Pence is a safer pair of hands going into the election and throw Trump under the bus. Not necessarily saying it's likely, but you can bet the GoP has thought about it at times.

[bull....]

Can only be positive as we can forget those silly tweets from time to time for no reason

market rallied , must not be much to it

[bull....]

US indices failed again at sp 500 3020 , consolidating in the same range as last time at the highs again.

[peat]

yeh I must admit I have a small cover on the SP500 at present.

[bull....]

yeh I must admit I have a small cover on the SP500 at present.

good timing as we are breaking down today from the range due to weak manufacturing data. my call on the peak in the bond reversal was good as we head back down to lower rates again , oil is lower now than before the saudi attacks.

US manufacturing survey shows worst reading in a decadehttps://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/us-manufacturing-economy-contracts-to-worst-level-in-a-decade.html


its not only rates racing to zero. us brokerages are now racing to zero fees on brokerage , 2 firms this week already

Charles Schwab is ending commissions on stock trading and the brokerage shares are tanking
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/charles-schwab-is-eliminating-online-commissions-for-trading-in-us-stocks-and-etfs.html

[bull....]

td ameritrade just announced zero commissions on all online stock , etf trades. looks like the new model is zero commission trades in the US. disruptors have caused this like robin hood.

[dobby41]

td ameritrade just announced zero commissions on all online stock , etf trades. looks like the new model is zero commission trades in the US. disruptors have caused this like robin hood.

Where do they make their money then?

[bull....]

Where do they make their money then?

lot of them make money from asset management , stock commissions only a lttle part i think swarb was 6% of revenue ( guess ) and td like 30% hence why td stock price fell like 20% last night more than other broker stock prices. I wont hold my breath for commissions dropping in aoteroa the land of the lets fleece consumers on everything country lol

[Beagle]

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/02-10-2019/interest-rate-cuts-havent-fixed-sinking-business-confidence-so-what-now/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Wednesday+2 +October+2019

Some serious infrastructure spending would appear to be appropriate.

[Bobdn]

Last October my financial assets dropped by 4.72 per cent. It was quite a month. Fortunately, everything recovered and if people stayed invested, it's been a good 12 months.

I was 89 per cent invested in equities at that point. Over the last few months I've reduced my equities to just over 60 per cent (Genesis is my biggest holding at around 6 per cent of my portfolio) and have cash on hand and some precious metals through Australian ETFs.

So I guess just at this point in time, on balance, I'd quite like a bit of market meltdown. So far so good, but I know we can do a lot better than this.

[Bobdn]

Dow futures down 200 points.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/dow-futures-trump-trade-manufacturing-data-wall-street.html

I like this scene in Margin Call, especially when the Jeremy Iron's charector says he can only hear silence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hhy7JUinlu0

As this thing goes down, it's going to hurt like a mother, even with my lower exposure.

[bull....]

Dow futures down 200 points.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/dow-futures-trump-trade-manufacturing-data-wall-street.html

I like this scene in Margin Call, especially when the Jeremy Iron's charector says he can only hear silence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hhy7JUinlu0

As this thing goes down, it's going to hurt like a mother, even with my lower exposure.

nasty night on US markets again ( although yhe hrlies are quite oversold) , just cant seem to break out of the giant trading range


what i was talking about stock commissions

The end of commissions for trading is near as TD Ameritrade cuts to zero, matching Schwab
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/the-end-of-commissions-for-stock-trading-is-near-as-td-ameritrade-cuts-to-zero-matching-schwab.html

So when you get charged 50 - 100 dollars in NZ to buy US stocks and the nz brokerage pays nothing thats what i would call gouging lol

[dobby41]

So I guess just at this point in time, on balance, I'd quite like a bit of market meltdown. So far so good, but I know we can do a lot better than this.

I'm with you there.
Looking to quadruple my investments (from selling property) in the next year so I'd really like to start from a lower base.
Happy to sacrifice a bit of what I have for the longer term

[Bjauck]

Last October my financial assets dropped by 4.72 per cent. It was quite a month. Fortunately, everything recovered and if people stayed invested, it's been a good 12 months.

I was 89 per cent invested in equities at that point. Over the last few months I've reduced my equities to just over 60 per cent (Genesis is my biggest holding at around 6 per cent of my portfolio) and have cash on hand and some precious metals through Australian ETFs.

So I guess just at this point in time, on balance, I'd quite like a bit of market meltdown. So far so good, but I know we can do a lot better than this. "A bit of a market meltdown" sounds to be a bit of a contradiction! Maybe you want a correction?

A market meltdown creates serious pain to a lot of people. It often means a collapse in investment and housing prices too. There is not much more room to drop interest rates. The NZ residential housing market is a debt fuelled bubble and a sudden meltdown in asset prices is the last thing we need.

[bull....]

US to impose tariffs on EU aircraft and agricultural products
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/us-to-impose-tariffs-on-eu-products-after-wto-victory.html

this just announced after US wins WTO case . opening up another trade war?

[dobby41]

US to impose tariffs on EU aircraft and agricultural products
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/us-to-impose-tariffs-on-eu-products-after-wto-victory.html

this just announced after US wins WTO case . opening up another trade war?

A bit rich really given they don't like the WTO.

[Bjauck]

US to impose tariffs on EU aircraft and agricultural products


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/us-to-impose-tariffs-on-eu-products-after-wto-victory.html

this just announced after US wins WTO case . opening up another trade war?
Add to that mix, the effect on trade of the likelihood that Johnson's latest Brexit plan will be contrary to the Good Friday Treaty and be a non-starter with the EU. So Boris Johnson's kamikaze Brexit Come What May could drag the UK out of the EU on Halloween without a deal to soften the blow to normal trade and commerce.

[bull....]

Add to that mix, the effect on trade of the likelihood that Johnson's latest Brexit plan will be contrary to the Good Friday Treaty and be a non-starter with the EU. So Boris Johnson's kamikaze Brexit Come What May could drag the UK out of the EU on Halloween without a deal to soften the blow to normal trade and commerce.

the world is a mess , dont worry jacinda will keep NZ afloat :p

[Bjauck]

the world is a mess , dont worry jacinda will keep NZ afloat :p Trump and Mini-Trump are in cahoots?

[couta1]

the world is a mess , dont worry jacinda will keep NZ afloat :p Lol they cant even keep themselves afloat let alone the country.

[bull....]

Nice rally last two days has retraced 50% of the fall this week making it not to bad in the context of October being a volatile month traditionally and often providing good buying opportunities for the traditional end of year rally. ( except last year) bad data on manufacturing and services caused the fall but expectations of more rate cuts and a not to bad jobs data saved the week.
Im thinking if we hold above august lows around dow 25300 , sp500 2820 should be good for rally into xmas of course im just basing all this on past history and nothing is for sure. Trump might tweet lol.
Anyway supporting the market will be
79% consensus for a rate cut by the fed in October ( probably need more insurance) add in Australia expectations high for rate cut November and nz high expectations for rate cut November. Did you notice in NZ 10yr bonds just on the verge of falling under 1% wow probably why the big buying in gentailers on Friday reinforced by the DJU hitting new highs as people still search for yield in a ever increasing race to zero.

[Joshuatree]

the world is a mess , dont worry jacinda will keep NZ afloat :p

So right.So glad our finance minister is being so conservative atp holding alot of firepower funding in reserve because of global slowing etc worries.A good pair of hands.

[bull....]

just out

The Federal Reserve will soon start growing its balance sheet again

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/powell-says-the-fed-will-start-expanding-its-balance-sheet-soon.html

[RTM]

So right.So glad our finance minister is being so conservative atp holding alot of firepower funding in reserve because of global slowing etc worries.A good pair of hands.

Yes...great pot of money to advance some key infrastructure when the the planning is done. That railway refurbishment to Northport is looking good. Shane also has some money left to spend on it. Bring it on ,

[sb9]

Might be ugly overnight...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/us-futures-drop-after-chinese-media-reports-that-us-and-china-have-made-no-progress-in-trade-talks.html

[BlackPeter]

Might be ugly overnight...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/us-futures-drop-after-chinese-media-reports-that-us-and-china-have-made-no-progress-in-trade-talks.html

We will see more volatility with the noose around Trumps neck tightening ... he will work hard to take everybody with him and destroy the economy that way.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/05/donald-trump-take-everyone-with-him

That's what is happening if one tries to take down a Mafia boss with nearly unlimited power. We better get used to extreme volatility - not just in the markets.

[Bobdn]

Anybody know when this bull market is likely to end? I was going to add to my gold position (Perth Mint Gold ETF) but I see Brexit has now been sorted and word on the street is that Trump will be re-elected again next year i.e. Dow 30,000

[bull....]

Anybody know when this bull market is likely to end? I was going to add to my gold position (Perth Mint Gold ETF) but I see Brexit has now been sorted and word on the street is that Trump will be re-elected again next year i.e. Dow 30,000

dont think anyone can answer that question with the bull market will end on this date and at this level.

my own targets on this thread have been 30000 dow for a long time now if you care to read back ( no idea if thats the end level its just a target from chart patterns and they can change up or down based on whats happening in time)
but currently based on long term charts if you look at a mthly chart of dow in hinsight you now see it has been consolidating in a range for nearly 2 years from approx 24000 to 27000. so based on range expansion theory thats 3000 points which if breaks up leads to a rise to 30000 ( could just as easliy break down and be considered a failed range expansion pattern). uncanny for sure but no guarantee it will happen.

brexit hasnt been sorted yet as uk law makers need to approve it

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/17/uk-and-eu-agree-on-new-brexit-deal-boris-johnson-says.html

and trump being re elected wont know for over a year yet.

[kiora]

Anybody know when this bull market is likely to end? I was going to add to my gold position (Perth Mint Gold ETF) but I see Brexit has now been sorted and word on the street is that Trump will be re-elected again next year i.e. Dow 30,000

There may be a few potholes but it always go up over time

[winner69]

Hedgeye guys says last week was a week of deals and investors celebrated. Then economic reality set in -

U.S. Retail Sales fell -30bps to 4.1% year-over-year in September.
U.S. Industrial Production dropped -48bps to -0.1% year-over-year last month.
The Chinese economy just hit a new all-time low of 6% year-over-year in 3Q19 (real GDP)
Chinese Secondary Industries (think “Old China” – the manufacturing economy) slowed to 5%, the slowest rate since 2Q16.

[bull....]

UK lawmakers delay Brexit vote and force Boris Johnson to ask for deadline extension


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/19/uk-lawmakers-back-a-change-to-brexit-vote-which-delays-full-approval-and-forces-deadline-extension.html


so brexit uncertainty continues

[BlackPeter]

UK lawmakers delay Brexit vote and force Boris Johnson to ask for deadline extension


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/19/uk-lawmakers-back-a-change-to-brexit-vote-which-delays-full-approval-and-forces-deadline-extension.html


so brexit uncertainty continues

Actually - no matter which way this current discussion ends, unless they pull their article 50 request and decide to stay in the EU this always will go on for decades and continue to destroy the British economy. None of the agreements will be quick to negotiate ... and the current BREXIT deal does not contain any long term trade deal between England and the EU either.

Will be interesting to see the (*still) British balance of payments for the third quarter ... Q2 showed already a huge flow off of money from the island (chart some pages earlier in this thread).

First the English shot themselves and their British brothers into one foot, than into the other foot and now they are discussing which hand to smash first.

About as exciting as watching a train collision in slow motion.

[winner69]

This mess is all Corbyn’s making

[BlackPeter]

This mess is all Corbyn’s making

If you put Corbyn, BoJo, the traitor Farage and all his hard core Brexiters into a bag and kick the bag than you always kick the right person.

[Blue Skies]

This mess is all Corbyn’s making

Hate to disagree but I think it's all Cameron's making, he's the one responsible & will go down in history as Britains most reckless PM.

(I'm no fan either of Corbyn to put it mildly)

[BlackPeter]

Hate to disagree but I think it's all Cameron's making, he's the one responsible & will go down in history as Britains most reckless PM.

(I'm no fan either of Corbyn to put it mildly)

Put Cameron into the above mentioned bag as well and the result will not change ;);

But its not one persons fault - what we have now is the result of British politicians of all colors blaming the EU for all the mess they used to create by themselves.

Like the fascists who blame(d) depending on the circumstances either the Jews. the Moslems or some other convenient scapegoat for all the problems their respective countries have, so did British politics blame the EU for all things the British used to screw up by themselves.

[Ggcc]

Put Cameron into the above mentioned bag as well and the result will not change ;);

But its not one persons fault - what we have now is the result of British politicians of all colors blaming the EU for all the mess they used to create by themselves.

Like the fascists who blame(d) depending on the circumstances either the Jews. the Moslems or some other convenient scapegoat for all the problems their respective countries have, so did British politics blame the EU for all things the British used to screw up by themselves.

Agree, the British made their own bed, they can now sleep in the messy sheets they put on the bed. I have friends who loved this outcome to leave, but I’m sure they will complain when the EU puts their foot down on them.

[bohemian]

I agree but the most galling aspect is that the vote in favour was only by 2%. I have also been told by a residence in the UK they didnt bother voting because of the perceived confidence Cameron gave of the outcome. This could well break up the UK now that the Scots have a real reason to leave. I wonder what will happen to the Union Jack?

[Balance]

I agree but the most galling aspect is that the vote in favour was only by 2%. I have also been told by a residence in the UK they didnt bother voting because of the perceived confidence Cameron gave of the outcome. This could well break up the UK now that the Scots have a real reason to leave. I wonder what will happen to the Union Jack?

Heading into the reality that the sun is finally heading below the horizon for the UK.

Great Britain?

Nothing more pathetic than a people or country deluding themselves and itself that they are still ‘great’.

[winner69]

I agree but the most galling aspect is that the vote in favour was only by 2%. I have also been told by a residence in the UK they didnt bother voting because of the perceived confidence Cameron gave of the outcome. This could well break up the UK now that the Scots have a real reason to leave. I wonder what will happen to the Union Jack?

If Labour/Corbyn had shown leadership during the referendum (instead of dilly dallying around) remain would have won.

But that probably would have only deferred the nevitable but it might have played out differently

[Blue Skies]

If Labour/Corbyn had shown leadership during the referendum (instead of dilly dallying around) remain would have won.

But that probably would have only deferred the nevitable but it might have played out differently


Corbyn is actually a Brexiteer, although he doesn't broadcast it he'd personally like Britain to leave the EU but tries to play both sides hence the dilly dallying around. That's partly why Labour under Corbyn are so hopeless.

[Bjauck]

Heading into the reality that the sun is finally heading below the horizon for the UK.

Great Britain?

Nothing more pathetic than a people or country deluding themselves and itself that they are still ‘great’. If Brexit indicates a pathetic delusion of exceptionalism or greatness, then only 37% of the electorate actually voted for it. The fact that 37% support can translate into an economically damaging and divisive Brexit with legal and other constitutional changes is down to the UK system.

[Bobdn]

Anyway, in the end I did add to my precious metals positions via Perth Mint Gold's fund. This is now 8% of my financial assets. It felt dirty buying gold at such high prices but whatever. I like the cut of Mark Mobius's jib and he said I should be buying gold at any price.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgLGIqhpwsA&t=1s

Will I keep it at around 8%? Probably. Most of my shares are now boring utilities and other dividend payers and I have cash on hand as well. I do have Rio and BHP which will probably sh*t themselves when the recession comes but I figure the world will still need copper and other commodities so I'll look away as they get cut in half, keep the DRP going, and think of sunny uplands.

The gold position is a hedge albeit a poor man's one. But importantly it means I will be able to stay broadly invested in the markets without too much panic. I've been too long at the Fair, like most of us, and my skivvy is stained with vomit and junk food from over indulgence on some exciting rides. It's the carousal for me from now on.

[BlackPeter]

Anyway, in the end I did add to my precious metals positions via Perth Mint Gold's fund. This is now 8% of my financial assets. It felt dirty buying gold at such high prices but whatever. I like the cut of Mark Mobius's jib and he said I should be buying gold at any price.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgLGIqhpwsA&t=1s

Will I keep it at around 8%? Probably. Most of my shares are now boring utilities and other dividend players and I have cash on hand as well. I do have Rio and BHP which will probably sh*t themselves when the recession comes but I figure the world will still need copper and other commodities so I'll look away as they get cut in half, keep the DRP going, and think of sunny uplands.

The gold position is a hedge albeit a poor man's one. But importantly in means I will be able to stay broadly invested in the markets.

I think you overestimate the impact a drowning England will have - at the end it is just 2.5% of the world economy and it soon will be less. Not saying that we might not get a recession, but I doubt it will be due to Brexit, however this shapes out - unless it happens to be the infamous straw breaking the camel's back ...

[Bobdn]

No, my decision is separate from Brexit. I'm just taking some chips off the table. Losses seem to hurt me a lot more than they use too.

[BlackPeter]

No, my decision is separate from Brexit. I'm just taking some chips off the table. Losses seem to hurt me a lot more than they use too.

Fair enough ...

[Bobdn]

Everybody calm down, the recession is years away according to Robert Schiller.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/20/shiller-recession-likely-years-away-due-to-bullish-trump-effect.html

[blackcap]

We all better hope that Trump wins 2020... can't imagine what Warren or Sanders would do for the economy.

Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller believes a recession may be years away due to a bullish Trump effect in the market.

According to the Yale University professor, President Donald Trump is creating an environment that’s conducive to strong consumer spending, and it’s a major force that should hold off a recession.

[Bjauck]

We all better hope that Trump wins 2020... can't imagine what Warren or Sanders would do for the economy.

Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller believes a recession may be years away due to a bullish Trump effect in the market.

According to the Yale University professor, President Donald Trump is creating an environment that’s conducive to strong consumer spending, and it’s a major force that should hold off a recession.

I don't know about the current democrat hopefuls but some research indicates Democrats are better for the economy.

economists-agree-democratic-presidents-better-making-us-rich-eight-reasons (https://evonomics.com/economists-agree-democratic-presidents-better-making-us-rich-eight-reasons/)

https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2016/6/the-economy-under-democratic-vs-republican-presidents

[BlackPeter]

We all better hope that Trump wins 2020... can't imagine what Warren or Sanders would do for the economy.


B/S - Trump might have slightly extended the long economic bull run started by Obama by reducing taxes for his super rich friends and for companies, but he used up his ammunition - or do you propose he introduces negativ taxes for his super rich friends?

We start already to see the beginning of the end of Obama's bull run and the first indications of the Trump slump.
Just look at the early indicators in the United States: car sales and tourism going downhill. Manufacturing and agriculture contracting.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/03/opinion/trump-economy.html

The last thing the world economy could afford is four more years of corruption and erratic decision making of an not calculable economic arsonist with the maturity and mental stability of a kindergarten bully.

[blackcap]

B/S - Trump might have slightly extended the long economic bull run started by Obama by reducing taxes for his super rich friends and for companies, but he used up his ammunition - or do you propose he introduces negativ taxes for his super rich friends?

We start already to see the beginning of the end of Obama's bull run and the first indications of the Trump slump.
Just look at the early indicators in the United States: car sales and tourism going downhill. Manufacturing and agriculture contracting.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/03/opinion/trump-economy.html

The last thing the world economy could afford is four more years of corruption and erratic decision making of an not calculable economic arsonist with the maturity and mental stability of a kindergarten bully.

Thats ok, I was just quoting Schiller. You can disagree with him if you want. I do note he has a Nobel and you do not.

[BlackPeter]

Thats ok, I was just quoting Schiller. You can disagree with him if you want. I do note he has a Nobel and you do not.

How do you know?

But anyway - he didn't receive a Noble price for the article you referred to ... and by the way - with these Nobel prices it is similar to titles. Some deserve them, some not, but whatever it is, they are awarded for (perceived) past achievements. Some knights, Sirs and Dames turned into crooks (as we all know) and some nobel price recipients turned into idiots. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[blackcap]

with these Nobel prices it is similar to titles. Some deserve them, some not, but whatever it is, they are awarded for (perceived) past achievements. Some knights, sirs and dames are crooks (as we all know) and some nobel price recipients turned into idiots. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

That I totally agree with. Plenty of Noble's like Obama's after he had done nothing etc.

As for Schiller I was just implying that he must be an economist of note. I do vaguely remember the name from some Finance textbooks at University that seemed to quote a lot of a dude named Schiller so he must be pretty good.

[couta1]

That I totally agree with. Plenty of Noble's like Obama's after he had done nothing etc.

As for Schiller I was just implying that he must be an economist of note. I do vaguely remember the name from some Finance textbooks at University that seemed to quote a lot of a dude named Schiller so he must be pretty good. Obama was as useless as tits on a bull, he was full of rhetoric and PC feel good talk. PS-Schiller a pretty respected dude in his field.

[Timesurfer]

Interesting report from DHL on the confidence of Kiwi exporters
https://i.emlfiles4.com/cmpdoc/5/8/3/3/6/files/640503_2019-exportnz-dhl-export-barometer-report.pdf

[bohemian]

I'm a fan of Shiller too. See if you like this.
schiller ein schöner tag

[Bjauck]

Obama was as useless as tits on a bull, he was full of rhetoric and PC feel good talk. PS-Schiller a pretty respected dude in his field.

Trump himself would not have been able to say it better.

BBC's reality check on US economy performance under Trump.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45827430

[Aaron]

Robert Shiller with the Trump effect and Ray Dalio with a big sag. Nothing too scary up ahead then.

[arc]

Everybody calm down, the recession is years away according to Robert Schiller.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/20/shiller-recession-likely-years-away-due-to-bullish-trump-effect.html


Hmmmm
And Berkshire Hathaway has gradually removed 66% of their market exposure and gone cash...

[Leftfield]

Hmmmm....And Berkshire Hathaway has gradually removed 66% of their market exposure and gone cash...

Arc, might be a good idea to check your source for this info as often similar claims are used as click bait and scare tactics warning of an imminent market crash.

A large part of Berkshire's income is related to the insurance industry which requires them to maintain large cash reserves. Here's a link to their latest financial report. (https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/2ndqtr19.pdf)

[JBmurc]

Steve Eisman, of 'The Big Short' fame, weighs in on the next big short

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDQYMFKbtvY

[Leftfield]

Steve Eisman, of 'The Big Short' fame, weighs in on the next big short

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDQYMFKbtvY

Thanks for posting....indirectly supports our Reserve Bank's calls for increased capital IMHO.

[Bobdn]

Yes, good post. Interesting. Looks like recession is not bearing down on us just yet.

I just watched this today from Real Vision "The Evolving Role and Value of Gold in a Modern Portfolio". Very good video. Once I make my decision to buy something (in this case gold via Perth Mint Gold fund which only has a 0.15% fee) I then search the internet to reinforce my decision.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vXgP9Upe8o

[value_investor]

Earnings season in the US and from what I can see its particularly flat with a lot of companies missing and not really living up to guidance or analyst expectations. The DOW and S&P500 though still going strong which is slightly perplexing.

Most of the stocks reality compared to what its priced at it so very far away but poor earnings doesn't seem to be having much of an effect.

[winner69]

Jobs number in US was 128,000 but in reality they were over 300,000 ...WOW indeed

@realDonaldTrump
Wow, a blowout JOBS number just out, adjusted for revisions and the General Motors strike, 303,000. This is far greater than expectations. USA ROCKS!

[bull....]

US markets look to be breaking up out of the giant trading range which has been a feature last nearly 2 years. lets see if we get acceptance if they hold above the breakout levels.

[kiora]

Blue skies.When do the thunder clouds arrive?

[bull....]

breakout seems to be holding , maybe because of this

China says it has agreed with the US to cancel existing trade tariffs in phases
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/china-says-it-has-agreed-with-the-us-to-cancel-existing-tariffs-in-different-phases.html

[iceman]

Very good news indeed. Lets hope this will actually happen but you never know with Trump https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-trade/china-says-it-has-agreed-with-u-s-to-cancel-tariffs-in-phases-idUSKBN1XH0TG

[bull....]

Very good news indeed. Lets hope this will actually happen but you never know with Trump https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-trade/china-says-it-has-agreed-with-u-s-to-cancel-tariffs-in-phases-idUSKBN1XH0TG

totally the rally could blow up anytime due to trade issues or even if an agreement is reached and it is a poor agreement

[winner69]

Great headlines - Earnings beat expectations

Expectations must have pretty low - earnings are down 2.7% on pcp and third quarter in a row if earnings decline

Never mind US stocks at new highs


http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4df1a5a0/corporate-earnings-beat-expectations-as-us-stocks-hit-fresh-records.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Corporate%20earnings%20beat%20expecta tions%20as%20US%20stocks%20hit%20fresh%20records&utm_content=Corporate%20earnings%20beat%20expectat ions%20as%20US%20stocks%20hit%20fresh%20records+CI D_a8fc439b2402628c80b47e55d4b67344&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle4df1a5a0corpor ate-earnings-beat-expectations-as-us-stocks-hit-fresh-recordshtml

[winner69]

OCR cut today for sure

The experts who do the the RB survey of expectations are a weird lot. They expect OCR cuts now and next year and still don't expect a rebound in inflation or growth.

[blackcap]

OCR cut today for sure

The experts who do the the RB survey of expectations are a weird lot. They expect OCR cuts now and next year and still don't expect a rebound in inflation or growth.

The expert I listened to at a presentation 2 weeks ago seemed to think the more rates are cut the more people will be setting aside for savings thus less investment and consumer spending and less inflation and growth.

[winner69]

The expert I listened to at a presentation 2 weeks ago seemed to think the more rates are cut the more people will be setting aside for savings thus less investment and consumer spending and less inflation and growth.

So OCR cuts now a bit stupid?

[BlackPeter]

So OCR cuts now a bit stupid?

Not that easy. I guess what the RBNZ is supposed to do is to manage inflation and economic growth and unemployment rate in an internationally deeply intermingled system using basically one single lever.

If the NZ economy would be a closed system, than a further drop of the interest rate would be plain stupid.

However - if the others drop their interest rates for whatever reasons and the RBNZ does not follow, than this would mean everybody moving their money to NZ (to get our higher interest rates), driving that way the NZ$ up and killing our export industry.

I guess its a case of choosing which death to die ...

[blackcap]

So OCR cuts now a bit stupid?

This was only one so called "expert" (used to work for the ANZ) but what he did say made some sense. He seemed to think traditional way of thinking about it was not working at the moment.

[dobby41]

However - if the others drop their interest rates for whatever reasons and the RBNZ does not follow, than this would mean everybody moving their money to NZ (to get our higher interest rates), driving that way the NZ$ up and killing our export industry.

I guess its a case of choosing which death to die ...

It is interesting, though, that the last big drop in the OCR was way later than other countries but we weren't really suffering the adverse effects you suggest.
Not quite as closely coupled as you suggest.

[BlackPeter]

It is interesting, though, that the last big drop in the OCR was way later than other countries but we weren't really suffering the adverse effects you suggest.
Not quite as closely coupled as you suggest.

How do you measure that?

Gladly the markets are not just driven by one-eyed day traders. Have a look though at the long term trend of the NZD against other major currencies.

When we moved 25 yeas ago to NZ the NZD was slightly below 1 Deutsch Mark - moving (changed into Euro) roughly between 0.44 to 0.48 Euro cent. Look where it is now ...

[bull....]

after the inflation reading the other day , the dollar and swap rates reversed course sharply implying the markets think a rate cut is coming. if they dont cut i expect an oversized reaction up in the dollar.

[dobby41]

How do you measure that?

Gladly the markets are not just driven by one-eyed day traders. Have a look though at the long term trend of the NZD against other major currencies.

When we moved 25 yeas ago to NZ the NZD was slightly below 1 Deutsch Mark - moving (changed into Euro) roughly between 0.44 to 0.48 Euro cent. Look where it is now ...

Your post implied a short time span than 25 years.
Aus dropped their OCR (equivalent) some time before ours was dropped and our export industry didn't die (by way of example).

[BlackPeter]

Your post implied a short time span than 25 years.
Aus dropped their OCR (equivalent) some time before ours was dropped and our export industry didn't die (by way of example).

Are you for real?

Every sensible export business will hedge their orders - i.e. short term day to day fluctuations will not be an issue.

Fluctuations longer than the length of the order book however will.

[bull....]

just as we thought no increase in ocr and the dollar has sky rockted

[stoploss]

just as we thought no increase in ocr and the dollar has sky rockted

I don't think anyone was looking for an increase :)

[bull....]

I don't think anyone was looking for an increase :)

lol typing in a hurry i meant i was thinking no decrease in ocr

[winner69]

just as we thought no increase in ocr and the dollar has sky rockted

Wise move by Orr this time around.

He’s on holiday now until February I think ...that’s good

[macduffy]

Yes, I'm pleased to see we've given up trying to win the race to the bottom.

[dobby41]

Yes, I'm pleased to see we've given up trying to win the race to the bottom.

I don't think we ever started.

[bull....]

The 2020s are set to be an economic turning point, says global banking giant
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/the-2020s-set-to-be-an-economic-turning-point/11699386?section=business

interesting read

[BlackPeter]

The 2020s are set to be an economic turning point, says global banking giant
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/the-2020s-set-to-be-an-economic-turning-point/11699386?section=business

interesting read

... it is, thanks for sharing.

While some of their findings appear to be somewhat mutually exclusive and / or US centric - it is certainly worthwhile to expect and plan for various tipping points over the next decade. What humans make out of the new trends - I guess everything from infinite misery through to a new more sustainable and peaceful global society is thinkable.

[RTM]

... it is, thanks for sharing.

While some of their findings appear to be somewhat mutually exclusive and / or US centric - it is certainly worthwhile to expect and plan for various tipping points over the next decade. What humans make out of the new trends - I guess everything from infinite misery through to a new more sustainable and peaceful global society is thinkable.

Yes...thanks for sharing from me to. Would be interesting to read the original report. Might be a bit weighty.
Hope to re-read it in 2030.

[blobbles]

Same site, even better article I thought: https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/crash-is-coming-says-influential-investor-mohamed-el-erian/11700696

The other one from the ABC has a funny piece in it where they appear to say over 65s tend to save more than those under 5! No surprises there..

[winner69]

Apparently the US markets have shot through the FOMO stage and heading through greed to euphoria

That’s good

And a Santa rally or whatever they call it to come

[blobbles]

Apparently global debt is set to reach NZD 400tn by the end of the year. NZD 52k for every person on the planet.

Anybody see a problem with this?

[winner69]

Somethings no from The Atlantic -

"If you wake up on a Casper mattress, work out with a Peloton before breakfast, Uber to your desk at a WeWork, order DoorDash for lunch, take a Lyft home, and get dinner through Postmates, you’ve interacted with seven companies that will collectively lose nearly $14 billion this year. If you use Lime scooters to bop around the city, download Wag to walk your dog, and sign up for Blue Apron to make a meal, that’s three more brands that have never recorded a dime in earnings, or have seen their valuations fall by more than 50 percent."

With a lot of these businesses, you could see them being used by a bunch of single, 26-year-old New York and San Francisco condo-dwelling hipsters making $200K a year (i.e. the exact type of people who work for these same companies), but Joe and Jane Sixpack from Kentucky? Not so much.

So it seems we’re having, or about to have a day of reckoning for these sorts of “Dotcom 2.0” companies. WeWork is the most famous example, of late. Growth is out, profits are in.

[Blue Skies]

Apparently global debt is set to reach NZD 400tn by the end of the year. NZD 52k for every person on the planet.

Anybody see a problem with this?

No problem! As Churchill famously once said, 'success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.'

[Blue Skies]

Somethings no from The Atlantic -

"If you wake up on a Casper mattress, work out with a Peloton before breakfast, Uber to your desk at a WeWork, order DoorDash for lunch, take a Lyft home, and get dinner through Postmates, you’ve interacted with seven companies that will collectively lose nearly $14 billion this year. If you use Lime scooters to bop around the city, download Wag to walk your dog, and sign up for Blue Apron to make a meal, that’s three more brands that have never recorded a dime in earnings, or have seen their valuations fall by more than 50 percent."

With a lot of these businesses, you could see them being used by a bunch of single, 26-year-old New York and San Francisco condo-dwelling hipsters making $200K a year (i.e. the exact type of people who work for these same companies), but Joe and Jane Sixpack from Kentucky? Not so much.

So it seems we’re having, or about to have a day of reckoning for these sorts of “Dotcom 2.0” companies. WeWork is the most famous example, of late. Growth is out, profits are in.


That's brilliant!

[Bjauck]

Apparently global debt is set to reach NZD 400tn by the end of the year. NZD 52k for every person on the planet.

Anybody see a problem with this? NZ has amongst the highest level of household debt as a % of GDP. From a low interest rate environment, a small upward movement in interest rates will be "meaningful"

[dibble]

NZ has amongst the highest level of household debt as a % of GDP. From a low interest rate environment, a small upward movement in interest rates will be "meaningful"

And didnt the previous OCR drop some with the implication consumers should borrow even more to feed the celebrated perpetual growth beast? Is that, er, responsible.

[value_investor]

I think we'll look back at these times say 2015-2019 as being incredibly prosperous just like we did from 2001-2005. The fact that companies like Wework or blueapron etc can't make money at a time where disposable income is at an all time high says something. Its not likely to get better for them in a recession scenario (ie. if you couldn't make money now then how will you in a recession).

[Blue Skies]

I think we'll look back at these times say 2015-2019 as being incredibly prosperous just like we did from 2001-2005. The fact that companies like Wework or blueapron etc can't make money at a time where disposable income is at an all time high says something. Its not likely to get better for them in a recession scenario (ie. if you couldn't make money now then how will you in a recession).

Not disagreeing with you but just looking at 2 of those mentioned. Wework, as a business model should have worked if founder hadn't been so reckless with investors money, e.g. trademarking the word We & selling it back to his own co for US$ 5.9M, raucous staff parties, corporate jets, investing in surfer friends wave pool business, elementary school etc, fascinating story of recklessness, hype & greed & well worth looking up online. The business model does apparently work, just not when run like this. Also if you're thinking of investing in shared scooters, (like Lime & Bird) don't! They're not a sustainable business model, i.e. scooters need to last 6 months with 5 rides a day to pay for themselves before starting to make a profit, but average scooter across fleet only last 28 days due to being trashed or damaged. According to manufacturers, these scooters are designed for single owner use, under 90 kilos, on flat ground in good weather. But people throw them on the ground, or in the harbour or up a tree, ride 2 at a time on them, or just seem to get a kick out of destroying them.

[value_investor]

Not disagreeing with you but just looking at 2 of those mentioned. Wework, as a business model should have worked if founder hadn't been so reckless with investors money, e.g. trademarking the word We & selling it back to his own co for US$ 5.9M, raucous staff parties, corporate jets, investing in surfer friends wave pool business, elementary school etc, fascinating story of recklessness, hype & greed & well worth looking up online. The business model does apparently work, just not when run like this. Also if you're thinking of investing in shared scooters, (like Lime & Bird) don't! They're not a sustainable business model, i.e. scooters need to last 6 months with 5 rides a day to pay for themselves before starting to make a profit, but average scooter across fleet only last 28 days due to being trashed or damaged. According to manufacturers, these scooters are designed for single owner use, under 90 kilos, on flat ground in good weather. But people throw them on the ground, or in the harbour or up a tree, ride 2 at a time on them, or just seem to get a kick out of destroying them.

Not that familiar with Wework but my jist of what I'm getting at is that we are in incredibly prosperous times without realising it. Wework is operating at a time were leasing vacancies are probably at their all time lows as well as unemployment and they still don't make money, imagine what happens in a 08 situation were vacancies sit for months on end. These companies will probably get swallowed up.

I know people who uber to places that are 20 minutes walk because they're too lazy to walk or catch a lime, better yet so many that get food delivered on Menulog or Ubereats more than once a week. Yet those companies aren't profitable now. Now imagine what happens when unemployment climbs to 7% again..

[percy]

Apparently global debt is set to reach NZD 400tn by the end of the year. NZD 52k for every person on the planet.

Anybody see a problem with this?

Had lunch with the wife's nephew today.
He sees a real problem with all the debt,and thinks there will be a world financial meltdown.
He is hoarding Silver and Gold.
And I think he must think there is going to be a food shortage too,by the amount of tucka he put away.!

[blobbles]

Had lunch with the wife's nephew today.
He sees a real problem with all the debt,and thinks there will be a world financial meltdown.
He is hoarding Silver and Gold.
And I think he must think there is going to be a food shortage too,by the amount of tucka he put away.!


That's just it - it seems to me there is so much, when it comes crashing down, it feels like it will be to the point of collapsing currencies. So gold and silver might not be a bad investment.

Then again, I have heard rumblings of a China crypto currency backed by gold. Which would be absolutely massive and in such a currency crisis likely supplant the current dominant world currencies (with the US suffering hugely with the amount of debt they have the the Euro probably being even worse off with their issues).

[JBmurc]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2019/07/25/u-s-corporate-debt-continues-to-rise-as-do-problem-leveraged-loans/#6c830b4b3596

Most market participants are counting on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. That is likely to increase nonfinancial corporate debt levels and will continue to fuel covenant-lite and document-lite loans. When the music stops, lots of people are going to fall on their bums.

[Bobdn]

Had lunch with the wife's nephew today.
He sees a real problem with all the debt,and thinks there will be a world financial meltdown.
He is hoarding Silver and Gold.
And I think he must think there is going to be a food shortage too,by the amount of tucka he put away.!

Hopefully he also has other assets as well as gold and silver ;) I really like gold as a bit of insurance. I find the main advantage is that it calms my nerves and and allows me to stay invested in equities.

Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard as we all know, mostly spoke of gold as a terrible investment. However, in one interview, he did admit that he has a 5% gold allocation in a charitable fund that he runs to guard against catastrophe. I couldn't believe it! I always felt guilty about my gold because people like Bogle (and Buffett) were against it. And then he admits that it might actually have a place in a portfolio.

The whole interview is terrific. His gold "confession" is at the 56 minute mark.

https://youtu.be/3uJbHREmUs4?t=3365

[bull....]

consolidating above the breakout - usually positive

[Joshuatree]

These 4 rules are great when you think you're at the bend at the end of the trend, dont know when.
Four Bear Market Rules | Fisher Investments | Full Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k0K615ItoY)

[bull....]

first down day for a while on us markets , probably needed. asx looks like about 2% fall at the moment yuk

[couta1]

first down day for a while on us markets , probably needed. asx looks like about 2% fall at the moment yuk That's not Yuk that's fantastic, another 2% would be even better.

[bull....]

That's not Yuk that's fantastic, another 2% would be even better.

looks like your get it at the moment

[Balance]

looks like your get it at the moment

Expect more volatility (and downside) ahead as Trump tries to divert attention away from his legal and impeachment problems.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50650216 Trump impeachment evidence overwhelming - House report

Nothing quite like the rhetoric of trade wars and China & Iran bashing to keep his 30% voter base of morons motivated and attention away from his problems.

Meanwhile, expect China to dig in as the country knew a while ago that Trump cannot be trusted and China companies are already countering moves by Trump and the US to derail the country's technological progress and economic growth.

Good example - https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-manages-to-make-smartphones-without-american-chips-11575196201

Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips. For China’s top smartphone maker, U.S. suppliers are increasingly a nice-to-have, not a must-have

Unfortunately for everyone, it means that China will not be bowing down to Trump's demands anytime soon.

The trade war will drag on well into 2020.

[Joshuatree]

Balance the prop mkt looks to be turning up here and in Aus.You thought the down cycle had a few years to run, still do?.Whats your latest info on the ground there in Auckland.

[stoploss]

Balance the prop mkt looks to be turning up here and in Aus.You thought the down cycle had a few years to run, still do?.Whats your latest info on the ground there in Auckland.
Can’t talk for Auckland but Wellington has had a big finish to the year .

[Balance]

Balance the prop mkt looks to be turning up here and in Aus.You thought the down cycle had a few years to run, still do?.Whats your latest info on the ground there in Auckland.

Come to Auckland and I will show you some properties being offered at 25% below CV. That tells you about the underlying state of the market.

I never ever use the median house index as a guide to property prices - it's used by the real estate industry to ramp up interest.

[peat]

I would ve thought Orr going full feral with capital requirements today would've been quite negative for the market.
Its a full 18% and its not delayed as long as expected - some were saying 5 years but it is effective in July 2020

[Leftfield]

I would ve thought Orr going full feral with capital requirements today would've been quite negative for the market. Its a full 18% and its not delayed as long as expected - some were saying 5 years but it is effective in July 2020

Mmmmm I think you will find the likely 5 yr implementation has been extended to 7. Good move by Mr Orr.

"The Reserve Bank has watered down the final decisions in its broadest ever review of banks' regulatory capital requirements a little and given banks seven years, instead of the previously proposed five years, to adopt them."

Read it here. (https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/102858/final-decisions-rbnz-capital-review-still-require-20b-increase-banks-composition)

[peat]

okay that's good thanks Left Field

I saw this on their own web page and misunderstood I guess

"The key decisions, which start to take effect from 1 July 2020, include banks’ total capital increasing from a minimum of 10.5% now, to 18% for the four large banks and 16% for the remaining smaller banks. The average level of capital currently held by banks is 14.1%."

[Joshuatree]

Orr rips band-aid off (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/117964224/adrian-orr-rips-the-band-aid-of-bank-capital-off--just-in-time-for-the-election)

Bloody banks, how many $billions profit did they siphon out last year.

[macduffy]

Orr rips band-aid off (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/117964224/adrian-orr-rips-the-band-aid-of-bank-capital-off--just-in-time-for-the-election)

Bloody banks, how many $billions profit did they siphon out last year.

And who do you think are going to pay for these higher capital requirements?

;)

[dobby41]

And who do you think are going to pay for these higher capital requirements?

;)

RBNZ estimates 0.2% increase

[Joshuatree]

Them . they make such a killing out of us.Note their share prices all going up to day in aus in response to this terrible imposition on them:t_up:. They are mini cannibal vampire squids much like goldman sachs

[Joshuatree]

Hats off to ORR best guvnor we've ever had and good on him not letting the white anting pressure from the ruthless banks get to him. A 7 year time frame hardly onerous and lets remember why he is doing it, so we dont have to bail them out down the line. You can handle a SLIGHTT reduction in div mac, take one for Team NZ, we are.:t_up:

[Beagle]

I think the big 4 stripped about $5 billion in profits from the NZ economy last year. When will Kiwi's wake up and realise there's no need to allow all those profits to flow overseas. There's Kiwibank and TSB Bank, (currently matching any big Aussie banks best lending offer) and of course Heartland Bank, SBS and the Co-op Bank. New capital requirements and transition period don't look too odious.

[macduffy]

You can handle a SLIGHTT reduction in div mac, take one for Team NZ, we are.

You're right. All those with money in Kiwisaver and/or certain managed funds will take one for the team.

[Jerry]

Noticed the interest rates on 5 yr Bank term deposits are now lower than 6-8 months term deposits. Isn't that the crack of doom? Or are we inured to such things now?

[bull....]

UK election today and possible US trade news today

[winner69]

UK election today and possible US trade news today

Clear majority to Cons and China solved and nor week will be a boomer

[bull....]

Clear majority to Cons and China solved and nor week will be a boomer

boris won and they say trade deal done but no details except talk that china will buy more ag and stuff and us will hold off tarriff increase and drop existing. guess market will re act to the trade details , if it as reported makes you think what was the trade war all about ? over some ag purchases lol

[bull....]

trade news out

Trump halts new China tariffs and rolls back some of the prior duties on $120 billion of imports
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/trump-says-25percent-tariffs-will-remain-but-new-china-duties-will-not-take-effect-sunday.html

lots of talk on trade deal but nothing concrete in writing, seems to just be commitments by china to do stuff. so not surprised market flat on announcement.

[Onion]

NY Times commentary on recession risk (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/12/business/economy/economy-recession.html)


Amid last summer’s recession fever, we identified the key indicators to watch for signs of trouble. Five months later, the situation has improved, but risks remain.

[bull....]

this is important for the future

The Most Momentous Rate Decision This Month Isn’t at Fed or ECB

The world’s oldest central bank stands to be the most significant this month as it pioneers a shift away from negative interest rates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-15/the-most-momentous-rate-decision-this-month-isn-t-at-fed-or-ecb?srnd=premium-asia

[bull....]

US markets look to be breaking up out of the giant trading range which has been a feature last nearly 2 years. lets see if we get acceptance if they hold above the breakout levels.


carrying on from the above the dow had the re test of the breakout level in early december around 27350 odd and breakout level held and since has rallied so positive at the moment for a continuation on to our target 30k.

US buy backs and dividend increases are providing big tail winds to the rally , helping improve EPS and make stocks look cheaper at higher prices.




“After lowering expenditures in the first half of the year from their tax-inspired record-settingbuying spree of 2018, companies increased their share repurchases by 6.3% in the thirdquarter,” said Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Whilethe levels still pale in comparison to 2018, they are significantly higher than the pre-2018 levels, and surpass the hoped for $170 billion mark, which was seen as the level needed to supportstocks and continue reduced share count EPS growth. For Q4, the market is looking for anotherincrease in buybacks, in the mid-single digit range, staying near the $190 billion level, well shyof the Q4 2018 record-setting $223 billion.”Silverblatt also found that buybacks continue to be top heavy, with the top 20 issues accountingfor 50.4% of the buybacks, compared to the 10-year average of 44.5%.

read the full report here

https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500

its in the index news section at bottom of page , good chart of the buybacks and dividend increases in there since 2004

[bull....]

us markets looking good into year end , jan has brexit hard possible to watch , impeachment proceedings if they proceed and are not delayed and possible overbrought levels in markets to contend with at this stage to start the year.
anyway what a year for markets ,


Studies on Election Years and Market Returns

If you examine the return of the S&P 500 Index for each of the 23 election years since 1928, you'll see that in only four of them was it negative

https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526

anyway im off for the holiday season maybe a mth ... have a good xmas

[Joshuatree]

Have a great one bull and thanks for being a mainstay on here.

[bull....]

markets still rocking :t_up: on target still to the impulse move to 30k in the dow thanks to the fed , why i say thanks to the fed is because they are the only reason markets have broken out the giant range i have talked often about.

and heres a timely article to remind everyone why we are rallying

Two key moves from the Federal Reserve have boosted stocks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/13/two-fed-moves-have-boosted-stocks-but-they-could-come-with-a-price.html


Pretty obvious from the chart of us markets that a rally started in October just after the fed announced in end of sept they needed to save the repo market. this affected the stock market because as an example hedge funds own such things as treasury bills etc they can enter the repo market with these securities as collateral and borrow from the fed liquidity provided and lever up more as they do by buying stocks on the market with the funds provided by the fed , lovely for us stock investors as its driving stock prices higher due to the extra liquidity in the market.

[bull....]

the trannie is just touching the top of its giant range , if it breaks higher very bullish as dow theory says

also the fed has also just announced a extentsion of there repo operation until middle of feb with the option of extending it furthur

[bull....]

Coronavirus


seems to be putting a lid on the rally at the moment the moment

Coronavirus death toll rises to 26 with more than 900 confirmed cases worldwide




The majority of the reported cases are in mainland China, where travel bans were in effect Friday for at least 10 cities.
Multiple cases of the virus have been confirmed in Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore and Japan.
The United States reported its second case Friday, and Taiwan has reported one

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-death-toll-rises-to-26-with-more-than-900-confirmed-cases-worldwide.html


have a look at this you tube video of the new 1000 bed hospital they are building in wuhan will be fully built in feb thats right feb lol man they can build things quick. i believe nz is still have a working group on the matter of upgrading hospitals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JDbvo-_gRE

[RupertBear]

This Coronavirus bad news, it maybe a Black Monday and Tuesday and....next week. For see my THL shares will be in for a plummeting :(

[BlackPeter]

This Coronavirus bad news, it maybe a Black Monday and Tuesday and....next week. For see my THL shares will be in for a plummeting :(

Oh dear ... THL was already bad enough prior to the latest scare - and I am pretty sure that tourism related shares will plummet. My commiseration.

Not sure though whether mainland Chinese people are a significant customer group for THL. Wouldn't mass travellers coming from mainland China be more likely to impact mainly on the accounts of bus companies, larger but not too dear hotel chains, souvenir shops and pharmaceutical companies selling manuka pills and dried tiger penis?

[winner69]

Oh dear ... THL was already bad enough prior to the latest scare - and I am pretty sure that tourism related shares will plummet. My commiseration.

Not sure though whether mainland Chinese people are a significant customer group for THL. Wouldn't mass travellers coming from mainland China be more likely to impact mainly on the accounts of bus companies, larger but not too dear hotel chains, souvenir shops and pharmaceutical companies selling manuka pills and dried tiger penis?

Doesn’t really matter if thl are directly affected or not ....the punters will read the headline ‘tourism will be affected.’ so thl must be going to suffer

[couta1]

This Coronavirus bad news, it maybe a Black Monday and Tuesday and....next week. For see my THL shares will be in for a plummeting :( Dont worry young bear it will affect the whole market so you'll have company.

[winner69]

Dont worry young bear it will affect the whole market so you'll have company.

Yep Couts ....whether rationale or not the whole market will be affected

[Blue Skies]

Yep Couts ....whether rationale or not the whole market will be affected


Agree definitely, but not all negatively.....eg stocks like FPH with their medical respiratory devices & a few others suggested on the Coronavirus thread.

[RupertBear]

Dont worry young bear it will affect the whole market so you'll have company.

:eek2: thanks mate I feel much better knowing this :D

[couta1]

Agree definitely, but not all negatively.....eg stocks like FPH with their medical respiratory devices & a few others suggested on the Coronavirus thread. Knee jerk sentiment rules at times like this, expecting the volatile A2 to take a good hit.

[RupertBear]

Oh dear ... THL was already bad enough prior to the latest scare - and I am pretty sure that tourism related shares will plummet. My commiseration.

Not sure though whether mainland Chinese people are a significant customer group for THL. Wouldn't mass travellers coming from mainland China be more likely to impact mainly on the accounts of bus companies, larger but not too dear hotel chains, souvenir shops and pharmaceutical companies selling manuka pills and dried tiger penis?

Thanks BP, yes holding THL has not been my best idea. Not my worst however :rolleyes:

And dried tiger penis :eek2: poor tiger, thats just gross :(

[bull....]

massive news just out

Coronavirus Spurs China to Suspend Tours Abroad and Xi to Warn of a ‘Grave Situation’






China said on Saturday that it would suspend all tour groups and the sale of flight and hotel packages for its citizens headed overseas, starting on Monday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html



wall st futures are implying a big fall monday

[Southern_Belle]

massive news just out

Coronavirus Spurs China to Suspend Tours Abroad and Xi to Warn of a ‘Grave Situation’





China said on Saturday that it would suspend all tour groups and the sale of flight and hotel packages for its citizens headed overseas, starting on Monday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html




wall st futures are implying a big fall monday


Bumped into a Chinese friend in Christchurch today. Said hoped all there family in China were ok. She said her parents are on holiday in NZ and due to return home next week. They have delayed their return & going to stay in NZ until further notice.

[BlackPeter]

And dried tiger penis :eek2: poor tiger, thats just gross :(

I suppose if they are killed before being dismembered they probably don't care too much. Though selling them in NZ is obviously illegal. Remember however to have seen in NZ souvenir shops the respective members of other animals which may be killed in NZ (like deer):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_penis

https://kiwiplaza.co.nz/shop/en/deer-products/122-power-health-deer-pizzle-60-s.html

On reflection - the sales of these things might even increase with the current scare. Who knows, it probably helps against the Corona virus as well as it helps against any other ailment it is used to cure?

[peat]

I couldnt find a black Tuesday thread...

So yeh a bit worse today huh. Apparently 1% down but it feels worse. I'm surprised also how long it took , a nimble trader with shares or bonds couldve got out of a fair bit of stock if they'd chosen to yesterday (Monday).
It could be fun to start to seek out bargains at some stage though quite frankly prices would have to drop a long way before anything quality becomes a bargain. The markets have been surging ahead and they shouldnt even need an excuse to correct but of course they have found one now, and it appears the bear virus could also spread rapidly.

(It had to happen eventually)

[ynot]

Yes, hold on to your hats, this could be the real deal.

[Balance]

All that Central Banks have to do is cut interest rates further and markets will recover.

You read it here first - again. :)

[winner69]

Inverted yield curve is back apparently

Not good